OK. Let’s just think this through a little. IF they were to announce this after the elections, (after today), what would be the likely events?
I’m guessing late Friday for the announcement. We should see extra trucks at the big box stores this week prior to the GET YOUR STUFF NOW weekend crush. Employees would be asked to come in on what would have been their days/time off.
So, that said, does anybody here know any managers at the big box stores? Any unusall schedules for this weekend?
JWB - to my knowledge there is nothing concrete about what they may/may not announce “after the election”. Neither at CurEvents or here.
Bronco Bill - if you are out there…..I’m afraid to refresh this page or go to Full Topic Listing, because the Wiki is running so slow, I come close to timing out……..I’ll hit refresh, go clean the bathroom, and by the time I’m done…..wella!!
Commonground – at 14:47
I know. What I’m suggesting is let’s check on what they couldn’t hide prior to that. Forward deployment of extra supplies to the big box stores would be a must to minimize panic.IMHO.
I just put in a call to the State Dept press office in regards to the 3 month SIP possibility from the US Consulate HK web site.
As soon as I hear back, I will post here.
Continued from here
Please carry on…
Commonground – at 14:49 --- I know…I’m checking.
JWB - at 14:53 - Oh! Also, fuel suppliers would have to be forwarned. Banks.
Have left a couple of messages and got called back by an assistant who passed me off to the Bureau of Oceans and International Environmental Scientific Affairs. The primary contact they gave me is gone until Nov 29 and her second is “away from his desk.” I have several appointments this afternoon and may not be able to follow up today, but will keep trying until I leave.
so what? they edit the pandemicflu.gov website to say 3 weeks instead of 2 weeks, and not tell the public they changed it? big deal…
They aren’t going to “announce it” in such a way that the public finds out they’ve been in a Pandemic Alert Period for over a year, already had their state’s Pandemic Flu Summit with Leavitt, nor that pandemic influenza would impact them for over a year, nor explain the WHO recently says it still may keep its current fatality rate, which kills the young and healthy…
It’s only going to be an announcement-like* change in ammount of time suggested to prep…
Hmmmm… I do remember that the gov is telling critical infrastructure to prepare for 6–8 weeks in country for critical workers to SIP on site… I think 12 weeks sounds about right for what they would tell over seas workers… longer time frame do to no controll of foreign supply chain… I don’t think they will tell US people to stock 12 weeks though… may come out with a 6 week announcement at some point
Commonground, is “wella!” Australian or something for “voila!”? I’ve wondered.
I’d love to be wrong on this, but, looks like the only time they’re going to clue the public in is when they are sure pandemic is occurring; no hiding it. Despite our state wanting to be able to look back and say “they did everything they could”; they thought it was a bad idea to tell the public the Ten Things the WHO thought we Needed to Know about Pandemic Influenza back in Oct. 2005…so real community contingency planning and preparation isn’t taking place.
I don’t think the public here in the U.S. will listen at all the first time they hear about a change in the amount of time our gov. is advising people to be prepared for. It will take a lot more education than that. Everyone on this site will be at Costco this weekend, but to get anyone else there to buy water, beans, and rice instead of holiday wrapping paper will take a whole lot of extra work.
I also agree with crfullmoon in that they may quietly move up these advisory parameters, but that no directives will most likely be stated strongly enough to catch Joe Public’s eye until those in charge are sure pandemic is already occurring.
crfullmoom - at 15:58 - lol!! Just really bad spelling on my part. All we really have is a rumor of an announcement of such after the elections. I find Dr. Niman’s Commentary’s today, coupled with the news of late on the Fujian strain, and todays newsletter, all very disturbing…..to say the least. Wouldn’t an announcement of a Phase 4 disrupt international flights? Could they be gearing up for a Phase 4 announcement?
I saw this on iflu.org this morning. Is this what everyone’s talking about?
Nova – at 16:15
“I saw this on iflu.org this morning. Is this what everyone’s talking about?
Yup.
“U.S. Consulate General for Hong Kong and Macau November 3, 2006 The U.S. Department of State recently sent a cable to all diplomatic and consular posts entitled “Pandemic Influenza: Preparing for Possible Shelter-In-Place”. The cable’s main intent was to provide guidance to all staff regarding “shelter-in-place”. That is, in the event of severe pandemic influenza with high morbidity, the public may be advised to self-quarantine. Therefore, current guidance notes that families should be prepared to “shelter-in-place” for up to twelve weeks, and maintain sufficient food and water supplies to accommodate that entire period. Just as in the United States, U.S. government employees and their families overseas have primary responsibility for maintaining adequate supplies of food to shelter-in-place. This also applies to private U.S. citizens. For the long term, families are advised to store foods that are non-perishable, do not require refrigeration, or preparation (including the use of water), or cooking. The cable also advises that families should store one gallon of water per person per day.”
here it is, not a rumor
“U.S. Consulate General for Hong Kong and Macau November 3, 2006 The U.S. Department of State recently sent a cable to all diplomatic and consular posts entitled “Pandemic Influenza: Preparing for Possible Shelter-In-Place”. The cable’s main intent was to provide guidance to all staff regarding “shelter-in-place”. That is, in the event of severe pandemic influenza with high morbidity, the public may be advised to self-quarantine. Therefore, current guidance notes that families should be prepared to “shelter-in-place” for up to twelve weeks, and maintain sufficient food and water supplies to accommodate that entire period. Just as in the United States, U.S. government employees and their families overseas have primary responsibility for maintaining adequate supplies of food to shelter-in-place. This also applies to private U.S. citizens. For the long term, families are advised to store foods that are non-perishable, do not require refrigeration, or preparation (including the use of water), or cooking. The cable also advises that families should store one gallon of water per person per day.”
here it is, not a rumor
crfullmoon at 15:58 -
I agree with your take on things. I don’t think there will be any unmistakeable BIG warning in advance of pandemic. (Not to take the side of TPTB, because I really think the most ethical thing is to give a clear warning NOW to as many people as possible. Tell people government is preparing to mitigate as much of the damage as possible—and then actually prepare to do so, and not just with bullets and troops.) But, nonetheless, I think TPTB have allowed themselves—chosen really—to be in the position where they are unable to help, so any advance clear warning could likely lead to a situation with fallout as serious as a pandemic itself.
And everyone healthy.
So they really are in a bind.
And I think the only way out that they see is to inform and warn people incrementally. Little happy-snippet cautions during Dora the Explora interruptions. Encouragement given to “safer” (thanks Monotreme; miss you) cities and state. (A friend lives in Indiana, and she tell me she hears reports all the time. I don’t have TV, but everyone I talk to about it here in California says they never hear anything about a pandemic.) Websites (as if anyone reads them, or even knows they exist). Emergency supplies planted in prominent places in stores like Walgreens, Wal-Mart. Newspaper articles, Google News, subtly placed messages, ramping up gradually to hopefully get enough people prepared (herd immunity?) while postponing for as long as a terrible economic collapse.
This inclination on the part of governments is completely understandable. Terribly tragic, but understandable. And so we who are aware—sadly few—must now think very critically. We must accept nothing from any “authoritative” source as necessarily being true. If we want to live through this thing—and sometimes I wonder—now is the time to tie our knowledge to our instincts. Reach as many people as we can. Then hold strong.
Thanks for the link Urdar-Norway – at 16:26 I’m surprised the Department of State’s web site says nothing about this.
Urdar-Norway - at 16:26. I think I am figuring out my misunderstanding. I am looking at this as two seperate issues. But maybe they are one issue. This Newsletter may be what Nann is referring to. Here is the post on the Rumors XI thread.
Inky at 10:34:
I note today that 60,000 Americans in Hong Kong have been warned to stockpile for three months in case of pandemic flu.
Nann posted this on the moderators’ thread: “Has anyone here, heard that the government is going to be revealing new information after today ( election day )..? I was called last night by a relative who is a doctor, as well as a sisiter in law who works the ICU at a local hospital, saying such a thing is going to happen. They were all warned yesterday. The USA Govt. does not want to say this info before voting day. I was warned by the doctor / relative to start preparing Now…and to say nothing about this as well, but thought you might all want to know.”
Scaredy Cat: This inclination on the part of governments is completely understandable. Terribly tragic, but understandable.
They should read what Peter Sandman and Jody Lanert say about risk communication. Honesty and candor win out over scheming and CYA. Otherwise, imo, the fallout will land on them anyway, but worse than if they told the truth. Also, if they are reading this, it will not be a secret which of the authorities prepared for themselves and the people won’t be tranquil about it.
Jane at 17:25 -
I completely agree with you. I am not defending TPTB; I think what they’re doing is indefensible. I’m just saying what they are is what they are, so we should act accordingly.
I should say “morally” indefensible.
Scaredy Cat, I get it, I was just quoting you as context for recommending Sandman. Some day the right people will see the light. I hope it isn’t too late.
Now that I have had some time away from this, I have had a much needed paradigm shift.
The notion that TPTB will not ‘announce’ ‘it’ is understandable.
But really, for them not to do any warning at all is not believable.
So let’s look at what we actually have. This ‘cable’ is a real indisputable notification to Americans living abroad to prepare for an expected SIP situation for a 3-month period.
Now imagine YOU are TPTB. How would you handle this imminent pandemic? I would suggest in measured phases. Perhaps in ‘rings’.
1st ring - Upper level government
2nd ring - Americans abroad.
3rd ring - Military families in the states.
4th ring - Health care sector
5th ring - Electrical and water sector
I’m just thinking out loud here. Throwing some ideas around.
Add rings and rearrange them please.
I had thoughts too, There have been changes in the spin, the virus…
I agree with the JWB – at 19:56
I am going to assume there have been some brains behind the decisions (don’t flame me! :0 )
We know how long it takes to go thru the adjustment phases, how much money, time and energy it takes to get 3 months worth of preps. Now assuming someone actually had brains…this “release” of new news of three months of supplies might be telling us they expect it to be another 6 months or longer before it goes pandemic. Obviously they don’t know—but an educated guess?
WildBill – at 15:49 “Hmmmm… I do remember that the gov is telling critical infrastructure to prepare for 6–8 weeks in country for critical workers to SIP on site”
Where did you see that??? I’ve been searching for that and couldn’t find.
TOM DVM: This goes back aways in this thread, to something you were saying about a link between pandemics and solar cycles. Whereas, there may not be a definitive link there, there are a couple of things that potentially add to mutation rates worldwide (affecting both the development of new viral diseases as well as lowering our immune system health and ability to withstand same). One is the continuing loss of stratospheric ozone, which allows excess uv radiation to hit the earth. The other is that many geophysicists speculate the earth may be undergoing one of its periodic magnetic pole reversals. When these occur (which is generally a centuries long event) there is a period of time when the magnetic field is significantly dispersed and weakened. There is some evidence this is happening now. As this field is responsible for deflecting alot of harmful solar energy, its weakening would allow more of this energy to pass through, which might also act as a mutagenic force on viruses and other organisms. Just an idea to kick around while we are all going into final countdown.
Checked the inventory at our local megastore today: never seen so much this ‘late’ in the month. They usually stack ‘em high for the 30th, 31st, and 1st of each month, then it’s nothing. By now most invetory would be depleted.
Maybe nothing or the holidays…
Kimt – at 20:03
Do you sense but not yet see a pattern? I do. There has to be a method to this madness. I wish I had the foresight to document the ‘alerts’ or ‘warnings’ or whatever you want to call them. If we could articulate what has been issued, we may be able to project what’s next.
Doesn’t this all tie in with: US elections over, WHO election due Thurs., Outbreaks they can’t hide? Aren’t we waiting for the new WHO leader to take the plunge and announce “look Out, here it comes?” Timing to me says not tomorrow, but Friday. After markets close of course.
I believe for most their behavior will change when their routine is disrupted. I think we may seen a change in human behavior then — just a thought.
Argyll.
Argyll
please define their . It’s just me, I don’t know who you are referring to. Thanx!
Thanks for asking JWB. I would define their as “the general public”. Hope you find this helpful.
Argyll.
JWB – at 22:17 Been watching the election results.
I can’t believe everyone (TPTB) is this incompetent not to inform the people better, sooner. If this is a “plan” I think its a very bad one.
They are gambling with the lives of the people and the economics of the planet.
It makes a certian amount of sense tho if we give them some credit. Just random thoughts-They work from the top down to make sure that TPTB are as prepared and protected as possible, warn those oversea’s and get as many people back to their homelands as possible to keep expenses/really bad publicity down when the tshtf.
Military and their families will be warned next, they are needed and our troops by their very act of volunteering and their loyality will be on the front lines; should be given some protection since they will be on the front lines and be hit hard by the pandemic flu.
Healthcare workers are also on the frontlines but so far are not under constraint to show up and tptb know that 40%+ may not show up so telling them to prepare is not considered as important and tptb know there will be great losses amongst those that do report for duty.
Utilites—I just think they didn’t put as much thought into as they should have or they would have realized how much the power being on would prevent and protect our troops and the general population from making desperation runs, becoming violent and increase the risk to others and increasing the peak instead of keeping it relativly(sp) stable.
Again just rambled thoughts.
Thanx. Yes, it’s helpful. Everyones input matters. Thanx for your post. Yes, I agree with you, when the status qou changes, so will people. Let’s keep an eye on the people changes.
Kimt – at 00:26
KimT
I just got your post. You sound down but we will get through this. I see it. I feel it. I KNOW it. Hang in there and teach someone else how to get through it. YOU know how!
What caught my attention in all this, is that they said to prep BEFORE the start of the winter flu season. How much time does that give them?
Oremus – at 01:08
What caught my attention in all this, is that they said to prep BEFORE the start of the winter flu season. How much time does that give them?
About two to three weeks.
Flu season is early this year in the Northern Hemisphere.
JWB – at 19:56 Now imagine YOU are TPTB. How would you handle this imminent pandemic? I would suggest in measured phases. Perhaps in ‘rings’.
1st ring - Upper level government
2nd ring - Americans abroad.
3rd ring - Military families in the states.
4th ring - Health care sector
5th ring - Electrical and water sector
I’m just thinking out loud here. Throwing some ideas around.
Add rings and rearrange them please
Fire and Fire-related EMS has already had our notification sandwiched in between mandatory Federal WMD awareness training over the summer.
We were told 8 weeks of complete SIP supplies, 12 is better and start now (this was June).
So one ring has already been “notified”
I see the foreign service notification as validation of what we were told back in June.
So I believe the rings are working most critical to least critical.
FWIW
“How would you handle this imminent pandemic? I would suggest in measured phases. Perhaps in ‘rings’”
My precious…
Sorry, couldn’t resist that. I promise to be good the rest of the evening.
Scaredycat at 16:31- When in Walmart Sunday, they had a display in the center aisle by the health and beauty aids. One side had some cold medicines, etc. on it, and one side had a pre-packed “Preparedness Kit” that had things like a little bottle of hand sanitizer, wipes, gloves, perhaps a mask, etc. It was interesting to see. Of course the public will hopefully start thinking that a family would need like a thousand of those kits, or figure out that they should be buying jumbo bottles of this stuff.
For the health of the hens and chickens in my coop, the attending veterinarian will shortly put a notice on the internal fence with respect to precautions to be taken in anticipation of an eventual outbreak of some contagious disease. It is to be understood that such a notice may reproduce in part what has already been advertised in the coordinated unit for its wider family members. Although it is not yet certain of the wording and extent of precautions to be advised, it is rumoured that it would be written along the lines of the three languages notices published in the Ask the Moderators XIX thread yesterday 7 November 2006 at 11:04.
Recouping the above veterinarian’s information, I understand one of the half-pedigreed chickens is preparing more in-depth information for one of the fighting cocks reigning above the coop, for the information of the thorougbred head farmer.
Thanks ADuckOrangeMercurey – at 07:59. Let us know when individuals in the flock start flying the coop and the head farmer starts culling non-essential birds. But I figure the fertilizer will be spread pretty thick around the farm before that happens though;-)
Bird Guano – at 01:44 So I believe the rings are working most critical to least critical.
Thanks for articulating what I was trying to say.
enza – at 01:52 8-D
I was warned Monday of this week, by my brother-in-law who is a doctor, and sister-in-law who works ICU at different hospital, that they were warned “ Monday, at work that the govt. of USA will be announcing something ‘major’ ( about Avian flu), after election day ( Tuesday the 7th). They were sworn to secrecy about this development, but were gracious enough to tell me what will be happening in a very short time, as today is Wed.08..06, and election day is gone now, perhaps after all the hoopla about elections are over..possible late week, or next week announcement, I can give no further info.
Nann at 8:47
Thanks for the re-post, the extra effort is appreciated.
Thank-you Homesteader…”They”, my brother-in law etc…knew nothing of this information until Monday 6th..It was told to them at the ‘last minute’, I just don’t know all the particulars yet, I will have to watch and wait like the rest of the USA, good luck to all of you…The one thing I can be sure of, is that this announcement is going to come very soon from the Govt’, as we all know- election day is now done.
nann – at 08:47
…. USA will be announcing something ‘major’ ( about Avian flu), after election day …
The president is going to give a press conference today at 1:00pm EST. I never thought that I would love to hear a press conference on JUST politics. If he even mumbles a thing about BF then for many people it will be ‘off to the races’.
Great! I’ll be at work. Why give a press conference in the middle of the day?
Gosh I’m such a computer klutz. I really should keep my hands off the keyboard.
press conference could be about ‘ election results
press conference could be about ‘ election results
Now, this is just a rumor, but here’s what he’s gonna say:
“Major eradication operations in Indonesia have ended. In the Battle of Bird Flu, the United States and our allies have prevailed. And now our coalition is engaged in securing and reconstructing those chicken coops.”
nann- yes it could. I don’t know what makes me think for one minute the prez would mumble one word about BF to the citizens of this country. Election results are more important at the moment. (I guess.)
I heard back from my friend who works at one of the US embassies overseas.
In a nutshell, what he told me is that what we’re seeing is part of the entire AI build up from last year. He strongly suggested viewing it with a healthy does of common sense as much of this information in influenced via political winds.
I fully expect it to be about the elections. That’s my point. If he strays into the BF subject I think that would be significant.
I believe he’ll simply be “welcoming” all the new faces to their government jobs. I have other thoughts about it, but I really need to go to another site for that…
When is the President planning to visit Indonesia? (It is fairly soon) Could any announcement regarding AI be done while he is in Indonesia?
The govt. knows alot more about BF than they are saying
Enza at 1:52, thank you my pretty, I needed that laugh.
nann- I completely agree with you. And that’s why I stated on the Hong Kong thread, that if we peel back the top page of that announcement to the U.S. citizens,and looked underneath, we would be shocked!
The President will speak later today. With the democratic sweep, and women coming to the forefront in national politics, this will undoubtedly be political in tone.
Whoops.
That should read:
as much of this information “is” influenced via political winds.
Bronco Bill at 09:15 Hysterical! If the president says THAT I’ll know we are done for.
nann – at 08:47
I was warned Monday of this week, by my brother-in-law who is a doctor, and sister-in-law who works ICU at different hospital, that they were warned “ Monday, at work that the govt. of USA will be announcing something ‘major’ ( about Avian flu), after election day ( Tuesday the 7th).
IF there were to be a major announcement, it won’t come until after all of the new committee chairs in the House are in place and briefed.
We’re talking weeks.
Drudge Flash:
WHITE HOUSE: PRESIDENT BUSH WILL MAKE ‘SIGNIFICANT ANNOUNCEMENT’ AT 1 PM ET…
Probably that Rummy has resigned.
Yawn
Maybe the press conference will have something to do with the 4 aircraft carrier battle groups off of Iran’s coast.
The new committee chairs won’t be in place until the end of January, the end of the current congressional term. Pelosi’s “100 hours” doesn’t actually begin until January 31st. So, they can easily communicate something right now (this week or next), or they would need to wait almost 12 weeks, or most of the way through the flu season to do something.
What time is it in Iran when it’s 1 PM Eastern ?
Tehran is UTC+3
New York is UTC-5
Bird Guano – at 12:43 , Durn, you`re good ! Or well read, and connected.
yawn
NPR: Bush to announce Rumsfeld termination from post.
cactus – at 13:00
Bird Guano – at 12:43 , Durn, you`re good ! Or well read, and connected.
Nope, mearly illustrates my position on paying attention and looking for patterns and differences in patterns.
Having a relative with a PoliSci undergrad and foreign service friends helps.
LOL
Sniffles at 9:32 I believe the President will be in Indonesia on Nov. 20th
Yes, here is a Bloomberg article about the visit…
Oops, that was me at 13:40…sorry Mama if you came to look.
Snowhound1, LOL! No apology necessary:-)
JWB – at 12:47 “Maybe the press conference will have something to do with the 4 aircraft carrier battle groups off of Iran’s coast.”
Been getting e-mails from a relative on the USS Eisenhower since they deployed in early October. They passed through the Suez Canal last week and joined the 5th Fleet.
Not AI related, but an interesting development.
tjclaw1 – at 14:06
It’s interesting what is happening there, I haven’t seen much about it in the MSM. Debkafile has been reporting about it though. They even had some inside info when birdflu struck Israel.
Don’t know where else to post this, but where I live (in Vienna, Austria) there’s been a noticeable increase in pan-flu information for the public. Just yesterday when shopping I ran across a flyer at the drugstore informing about how to prepare for a flu epidemic (including stockpiling 3 weeks’ worth of food) and a flyer at a discount supermarket (which was selling “pandemic flumasks” among the weekly specials), telling people to prepare. Could it be that even TPTB in this small, smug country are waking up to their duty?
I just attended my employer’s health fair. I am happy to anounce that there was someone there talking about Pamdemic Influenza. It appears my company it starting to take this serious.
My brother-in law has told our family that he was told by Govt. that the ‘pandemic “is” going to happen…..NOT “if”…scary
nann — I agree that is scary — but it is basically the message HHS has been giving for the past year of not more, isn’t it? Not if but when? And that there will be a pandemic, pandemics happen, but whether it will be H5N1 or something else, who knows.
In the thread on Todays news, heddiefromcalifornia posted that The chinese are banning 40 breeds of dogs in the capital, and many will be adopted here in the U.S.. Why are the Chinese cracking down on dog ownership? They were clubbing stray dogs to death because of rabies in the countryside a few months ago… This is a little strange.
Nann, can you provide more details? US gov? Any agency? Is your brother a doc, etc?
strictly personal opinion.. if the govt folks thought the public would be derailed by whatever the upcoming news is, they may have purposefully waited until after the elections just to get them done, not necessarily because they need input from the newly elected. if they announcved bad things before the election, and unrest were sufficient to impede the elections getting done - and bad things happened before the elections could be rescheduled and executed… what would happen in the govt when the current terms of office expired, but no election had been held to reseat those elected offices?
i seriously doubt the govt has any need to wait for the newly elected to do anything - emergency powers are more than sufficient. seems like waiting for the elections to be held is/was more likely just a matter of ensuring continuity.
my stupid question would be whether the secdef will be going on to handle more pressing responsibilities, or if he really will simply be stepping down. the civil defense infrastructure would have been real handy right about now…
c3jmp at 21:40. That’s not a stupid question, that’s a very interesting one. He’s stubbornly refused to leave his post (and Bush has stubbornly refused to replace him) through all kinds of major problems over the past few years. Now that the elections are over, and most of the political damage from having him aboard is done, they dump him? Odd timing.
Nann: I second anonymous’ request to you…can you provide any more details, please? What you have posted is, IMO, the one piece of real hard data that is not mere conjecture in this thread. Now, my daughter is a nurse at UCLA med center in LA, and she hasn’t told me a thing about such a briefing. But then again, she’s very new there and either they might not have given her the same kind of heads up your brother in law got, or she’s less willing to bend the rules. I’m going to copy your post and paste it in an email to her, and ask her directly if she’s heard any such thing.
Something very strange has occured. The original story on this was that US citizens were being advised to stockpile provisions for 3 months. I copied the link that Spam referenced on Nov 7 and sent it to my families. Here it is http://hongkong.usconsulate.gov/ci_avian_2006110301.html same exact link, copied from Spam’s same exact post. Only now the article is dated with today’s date, Nov 9, and no longer advises 3 months, it advises 2 weeks. I checked the emails I sent, clicked on the link I put in them, and it’s changed the same way, now lower key and saying 2 weeks, not 3 months. Very weird.
Mary in Hawaii – at 01:26
This belongs to the news thread, I think.
at 01:26: Duh - the publik won’t notice… there’s so many other things they use the internets and the Google for than trying to pay attention to what tptb do…
Any copies of the original advisory might be the “tip of the week”…
or, the iceberg; we know they put more planning into the Manage the Media sections than the mass fatality surge planning. “First things first”.
(Grr. why did I get online when I couldn’t sleep?)
crfullmoon – at 01:41
But the cat’s out of the bag. Some motivated journalist will make the down playing a story, which generates even more publicity, and awareness, that the government is trying to hide something. It’s a better story than SIP for 12 weeks.
“Some motivated journalist”… hope is not a plan :-(
(if we had motivated journalists, our state citizens would know we are in a pandemic alert period, and, that we had our state pandemic summit 9 months ago… )
the old version is still in google’s cache… get it while it lasts.
Cross posting from a different thread, on the HK Consulate website.
I think I know what this is.
The following sentence replaces the original sentence, The Department of Health and Human Services, via its pandemicflu.gov website, advises that families have on hand two weeks of emergency supplies (food, water, medicines) in the event of a pandemic influenza.
Original Therefore, current guidance notes that families should be prepared to “shelter-in-place” for up to twelve weeks, and maintain sufficient food and water supplies to accommodate that entire period.
At the end of both documents, you find this “To better help plan for “shelter-in-place”, all U.S. citizens are encouraged to refer to the http://www.pandemicflu.gov/ website”
Somebody at the State Department jumped the gun, advised citizens to prep for 12 weeks, refered to HHS, only HHS hasn’t moved to 12 weeks as policy, at least not yet. Now they have to backtrack, cos State has to take Pandemic recommendations from HHS.
Ha!
I sent the original advisory to my sister who is visiting Hong Kong this week. We are still trying to reach her.
Argyll.
Yes, Brother in-law is a doctor & Chief of radiology @ large Boston hospital.
at 04:44; Yeah, pretty ironic when they ask a fantastic risk communicator for advice, and then choose not to use a keystone piece of it.
One, lowest-common-denominator message, loved by bureaucrats, that can’t be changed even if open honest timely communication is vital to gaining and maintaining the public trust; so they’ll believe you during and after a pandemic (you didn’t warn them for when they had time to prepare - American public is not going to be feeling very consenting to authority).
At 03:41, Anon_22 documented the differences between the Nov 3 U.S. Consulate General’s newsletter and the Nov 9 newsletter. The average recipient of that newsletter would merely wonder why the (apparently) same letter was being re-sent a second time.
It is not likely the busy reader would lay out the two newsletters side by side, to see if there was a change in one unflagged sentence: [be prepared to “shelter-in-place” for up to twelve weeks] versus [have on hand two weeks of emergency supplies]
This typical communication pattern demonstrates “motivated inattention” to well-known learning theory principles for helping people follow changes in evolving situations: acknowledge a change as a change.
The “motivated inattention” to this principle is likely based on some level of embarrassment at having made a boo boo, to use highly technical language.
Of course, the real boo boo is downplaying the importance of serious recommendations to plan for sheltering-in-place: changing from 12 weeks (an accidental “good” recommendation) to two weeks (the originally intended “bad” recommendation).
In a list of 24 recommendations for communicating about infectious diseases, Sandman and Lanard include:
“Be explicit about changes in official opinion, prediction, or policy. In emerging health crises, authorities are likely to learn things that justify changes in official opinions, predictions, or policies — for example, changes in the SARS case definition or in official recommendations concerning the use of masks. Announcing the new doctrine without reminding the public that it deviates from the old, though tempting, slows learning and fosters confusion.”
Watching tv this am -just picked this up on CNN at 10:30 eastern/9:30 central. Pres. Bush currently meeting with his cabinet and will have a press conference at 11:35 Eastern/10:35 central. My feeling is that its a political thing but wanted to give heads up in case its flu related. I have just enough time to watch/report before going into work.
Drudge Report:
Bush to make statement with his cabinet in Rose Garden at 11:35 AM…
Any guesses?
Re: Bushes Statement-Well THAT was so a non-event! President pledges full co-operation with incoming Dems.
JWB- as much as I would dearly love for some sort of announcement to be made- I just don’t think its gonna happen. I don’t mean at all to refute anyones e-mail or info or anything like that. It just seems to me that TPTB are so busy playing politics right now I don’t see anyone doing or saying anything usefull……
My guess? It will be survival-related. His. Not flu-related./
Thanks Nann, by pandemic was he specifically referring to H5N1? Cause some briefings state a pandemic “will happen in the future”.
«My brother-in law has told our family that he was told by Govt. that the ‘pandemic “is” going to happen…..NOT “if”…scary »
Green Mom – at 11:54
Just wishful thinking on my part. Oh well.
anonymous..Yes H591
I’ve been thinking for a couple of days that we’ve had two elections going on at the same time. They just may be talking about the election for director-general of WHO. There may be some news that will be coming from them or from the UN after the nomination and approval process “dust” settles.
I would be extremely surprised to hear any kind of major announcement from the US federal government concerning a pandemic. I just don’t see it happening. Nann, I just can’t see why doctors and other health care workers (in BOSTON which has not exactly been at the forefront of pandemic planning to my eyes) would be given some kind of heads up as to some announcement. Hospitals and health care workers seem to be the last to know in so many ways in this regards. Aside from Nann’s rumor, has there been any other rumor to say that there is going to be some kind of announcement soon? I really really just don’t see it. Maybe a small, slight, subtle change in wording on www.pandemicflu.gov. Going from 2 weeks preps to 2 weeks, 3 and a half days. That’s about all I can envision. Just my opinion.
I agree with ACM at 14:41.
I don’t think anyone is willing to stick their political neck out there to support wide spread prep.
Now if we can confirm H2H on a widespread basis, then maybe, but by then it will be too late.
Keep your shoulder to the wheel and keep doing what you have to do to protect you and your family. It is all you can do.
Have a great day!!!
Hype? (Just pulled from one of my emails):
Subject: Bird Flu Warning - Order your supply now before we raise the price!
Dear Valued Customer,
We are emailing you to let you know that due to the increase in demand for Tamiflu (the only known antiviral to protect you against the vast spreading Avian Flu), our suppliers have given us until the 15th of November before they raise their prices. Currently you can acquire Tamiflu (for adults and children) for as little as $60 USD per box. We are told the price will almost double after the 15th, so are effectively giving you warning to order your supplies now before they do.
Please do not delay. Avoid the rush and place your order now to have it expedited to your door in 7–10 business days. The product is in stock and we have our customer service team standing to assist you with your order 24 hours a day by calling …
For those customers who are unfamiliar with the Avian Flu, we recommenced you visit these links below to see what is currently happening in the world.
New bird flu strain emerges http://www.hindu.com/seta/2006/11/09/stories/2006110900471500.htm
Turkey Allocates $55 Million to Bird Flu Prevention http://www.zaman.com/?bl=economy&alt=&trh=20061108&hn=38073
India sounds bird flu alert as season of migratory birds begins http://www.kuna.net.kw/Home/Story.aspx?Language=en&DSNO=920089
Indonesian teenager dies of suspected bird flu http://www.todayonline.com/articles/153173.asp
Health officials remain focused on bird flu threat http://www.adn.com/life/story/8379369p-8274654c.html
Sincerely,
Management
Anyone else hear about prices going up for Tamiflu?
I could hardly wait to get home from work and to this board tonight to report what one of my customers told me today!! First let me say, I am primarily a lurker (for at least a year now)on this and 2 other “pandemic watch” boards and rarely ever post. I work in a sporting goods type store and am a customer service cashier and was putting a bunch of items on lay-away for a lady today and we were chit-chatting about how busy our cust. servc desk was, she says her job was so busy also, I asked her where she worked, she said she was a pharmacy tech for a local Walmart, immediately I think health field related, ask her if anyone talks about impending pandemic, she says she hasn’t really heard anything from work, but…(and it’s a big but,)… her friend who recently had a baby at one of our 3 local hospitals said while there, she was told by hospital staff, 2 people were there in quarentine that had bird-flu!!! I said that is impossible, it’s not in the U.S. yet. She said they were told it was bird flu, these 2 people were not from here, they were in quarentine kept away from everyone else and that the hospital had to let everyone know that they were there (for what reason I don’t know,she didn’t either)I said again, it must have been just been reg flu (don’t know why I said that now,wouldn’t have had to quarentine I’m sure)again she said they were told bird flu. She really didn’t seem to get the seriousness of the information she had just told me until I had made a few statements to her about higher ups in govt. warning everyone to prepare bcse govt wouldn’t be able to save anyone, and that a pandemic would be like a thousand Katrina’s happening at one time. I asked her to ask her friend who had the baby again and to try to get some more info and to please let me know what she finds out. She said she would but I doubt she would go out of her way to get back in touch with a stranger, however she will be coming back to my store for her lay-away, and I will certainly be on the look-out for her. My take on her is that she genuinely believed that she was telling me factual info, whether or not her friend heard a rumor at the hospital remains to be seen. I keep wondering though, if it was just a rumour her friend heard at hospital, surely she wouldn’t have told said friend everyone had to be told this info. Why would everyone need to be told…in case anyone else came down with symptoms days later??? Makes me very nervous. Sorry this was so long, just wanted to convey full story.Have to step away from puter for a little bit, will be back shortly. Haven’t even changed clothes from work yat.
I meant yet up there. P.S. My husband has an acquaintance/friend who is a neurosurgeon at same hospital whom he sees on occasion. I’m going to see if I can get him to stop by his office for a visit and ask him about this rumor in person so that he can get a body language reading at the same time.
Hey…Dauphin Island (Alabama) here…does P’cola stand for Pensacola?
Yes, where are you P’cola? Inquiring (and nervous) minds want to know. And do keep us updated! Thanks. Bye the way, I asked my daughter who is a nurse at UCLA med center in LA if she had been given any kind of heads up on bird flu like Nann reported, and she said not a word. But she’ll definitely let me know if she gets any kind of inside dope, and of course I’ll pass it on here.
P’cola prepper at 20:28. This is really weird, but back in June I heard from a client a nearly exact same story, about a supposed bird flu patient at a hospital in South Carolina. Because I couldn’t get any kind of verification about it, I did not post at the time. But your story has prompted me to mention it, since this is the rumors thread. Thanks for posting, so we can stay a bit more alert for circumstances like this.
This is not the first story I have heard like this. Sometime late this summer, I was told by 2 HCW that a friend of theirs (another HCW) told them there were 3 BF patients in quarantine at the hosp where he/she worked.
Folks, there is a difference between being a bird flu patient and being a “suspect” bird flu patient. What these reports may be is simply caution upon doctors part concerning possible suspect cases that have been out of country in areas where there has been bird flu. Just my thoughts on the matter. That said, I too would like to know in what city P’cola heard this rumor.
Since there have been several of these rumors, would hospitals simply be on a higher state of alert? Were there similar suspect cases in Australia that turned out to be drug trafficking related?
P’cola prepper - I am in Pensacola and would like to know which hospital. I know there are other Pensacola residents who visit this board. I know someone who works at the “big” hospital and will call her and inquire; however, she knows I have an interest in avian flu and believe she would have called me. Awhile back there were some cases of West Nile Virus in the area - mostly Mobile - and I’ve known people in the past who have referred to it as “bird flu.” But that wouldn’t explain the isolation.
I’m back now, had to visit with the hubby just getting home from work. (He’s not crazy about the time I spend on puter about bf)had to cook also. Yes I am in Pensacola, the hospital she named was Sacred Heart. I plan to definitely speak with her if I am in the store when she comes back for that layaway, and if I miss her somehow, I would definitely consider taking the drive over to her Walmart to ask for an update if she’s there.
Maybe its time to contact a local reporter.
The Austalian case was a drug mule who got sick when a drug condom burst inside him. The flight was from Vietnam so he was treated as a BF suspect at first. A quick temperature check revealed no fever therefore no BF so treated appropriately.
Pçola- I’ve heard tell that it is being report as yellow fever, but still investigating.
Not really a rumor but just wanted to add while in the posting mood, over the summer I found out from a girl that worked at my store that her dad was some kind of big-wig doctor in Mississippi (parents are divorced and she lives here with her mom) After talking to her about H5 and prodding her to ask her dad for some info, she informed me that after speaking with her father by telephone on a few separate occasions, she told me more than once that he was really stressed out with all the planning and preparations going on over there for possible pandemic. Whatever position he held, I’m not sure of, but I do remember she said he was involved with multiple hospitals. She no longer works with me but she did say she might come back over the holidays.
My mum works at a hospital in Texas, and she said they have not been informed about bird flu or a pandemic. I asked her to call me as soon as she heard a mumur of those words. Got her promise on that.
I also echo P’cola prepper’s question as to why people in the hospital “need” to know about these “bird flu” patients. If you want to hide a secret, you don’t tell people.
Doesn’t Pensacola have a major naval air station?
Yep, Blue Angels fly out of Pensacola. I can think of one reason to tell other patients—a risk factor for them to watch out for when they go home. It would be grossly unfair not to warn them to be on the lookout for symptoms since exposure was in their hospital. Sounds like the hospital took their responsiblity seriously.
nann – at 15:37
My brother-in law has told our family that he was told by Govt. that the ‘pandemic “is” going to happen…..NOT “if”…scary
We received the same message.
Not if, but when.
Tempered with:
When and how bad are the only remaining questions.
1918 Bad or 1968 bad.
The If part wasn’t a question.
I’m about 30 miles west of Pensacola in Alabama. There is a big Navy base in Pensacola and a LOT of people from Viet Nam and all those surrounding countries living there. There are Thai and Vietnamese resturants all over the town. There would probably be a lot of relatives visiting back and forth between the far east and the U.S. so it’s very possible that it may really be bird flu.
South Ala. at 1:09 -
You’re right. I was thinking along the lines of returning military. I forgot about all the gulf coast Vietnamese fishing communities.
I am not sure anyone wants to see this or not.
This is the first 3 paragraphs from a blog I just found (fair use?)--I’m going to try that “tinyurl” link thing so anyone that wants to see the whole blog can go there.
He talks about pallets of supplies supposedly earmarked for the timing of an announcement by tptb. I don’t give it much weight, but hey, this is the rumor’s thread…
What ever happened to avian influenza in the press? Maybe the current situation in Iraq (or with Iran or N. Korea) or the current scandals plaguing the party of fear is just moving the topic to the backburner. Whatever the cause, we may be hearing about bird flu once again. I just happen to work as a stocker at a local grocery store. Therefore, the following information I am about to discuss here is not a presenting of some secret information. Rather, it is merely what I have observed and should be taken only as such. The sole reason for which I am choosing to disclose this information is that I feel people should not be left in the dark as to what is going on behind the scenes. A couple of months ago, I had received with my check a letter from my employer stating that the U.S. government is urging that people stock up for the potential bird flu pandemic. It stated that food distributors and my company, at the government’s recommendations, are partnering up to stockpile food and water, as well as certain drugs, for future use in the event of a pandemic outbreak. However, what I thought was odd, is that these pallets of food and water have dates on them and warnings that state “Do not break down. Hold in back until further notice”. Here will probably be the only place that you will see actual dates posted, but here it goes:…
Interesting blog you provided mcjohnston92. This may fit in with what nan said about a pending announcement from her/his relative.
I’ve been amazed the report of BF at SH in Pensacola didn’t get hot. Nawty Bits said it was possibly yellow fever—but hey, they got a vaccine for that. I thought it was mandatory before flying into or out of endemic areas? It’s mandatory for Navy.
Then Beehiver says there was a case in SC?
Huh??? Nawty bits what else have you found out?
Any active Navy personel would not be in S H hospital but in the big Navy hospital that’s in Pensacola.
Anyone in the military/Navy would not be in S H hospital but in the big Navy hospital in Pensacola.
Anyone in the military/Navy would not be in S H hospital but in the big Navy hospital in Pensacola.
Another question…how can all civilians be screened before entering the U S from the far east. What if an infected person is in the incubation period and they haven’t manifested symtoms? Will the P T B start putting people in quarantine like they do animals entering the U S? There are so many holes because we are a free country that will make it almost impossible, at least in the beginning, to protect the citizen’s of the U S.
Good news. I recently had a 55 minute pandemic planning conversation with the Dean of Students at the private university my son attends (USA). She has asked me to serve as an advisor to help develop the university’s pandemic plan. (Anyone remember the thread about “who are the experts”? Unfortunately, it seems that we are the experts, right here at Flu Wikie. Yikes!) She has also read my essay “Becoming Self-Sufficient for Six Months” and she wants to distribute it to the faculty and staff.
We discussed a lot of logistic issues, such as the air quality in campus buildings with HVAC window units versus those with central air & heat, the impact of humidity on airborne particles, cafeteria service, what to do with foreign students, et cetera. The long and short of it is that they, along with most universities, will attempt to send their students home when just one case is confirmed and they will try to hold classes via the internet. Oh yeah, somehow they already have determined which buildings will be occupied by the National Guard for field hospitals.
There is not much more to say at this point except that all of us at Flu Wikie need to reach out and see if we can make an impact somewhere. Compared to 99% of the population, we really are the experts.
Dr. Dave…So glad to see that you were well received. I have two sons at a state university that is also a medical school/ teaching facility. I have tried to contact them repeatedly about pandemic plans, etc. with no luck. I can’t imagine that a teaching hospital would not have discussed a panflu plan with faculty and staff. Please keep us advised of what steps you/they deem important and which of these get actually implemented. I believe you and I share a common interest in that I recall you saying something along of the lines that you wanted to be fairly assured that a pandemic had begun before calling home your student. I have made “alternate” plans for my guys, but my ultimate goal would be to get them home (to me) if time allows. There are many of us out there with college aged kids that will be following your posts with a renewed interest. Thank you for taking this on.
Yes, good news Dr. Dave. There will always be students unable to leave and planning like you’ve mentioned may save their lives.
mcjohnston92 – at 17:41
Great post. Especially the Business Continuity Plan link provided.
Leo, no further info….
ANON-YYZ
Kroger’s plan looks interesting. Wonder if we are green or yellow? It does talk about stock piling grocery items and “life-sustaining” drugs. And it does mention the “start-up” kits mentioned by the blogger. Of course he could have read the plan and then made it all up…….
I spoke to the manager at our local Kroger over three months ago, asking him if Kroger Corporate was aware of the pandemic. He assured me most heartily that they were and had hired people to assist in preparations. He also mentioned having certain “pallets” [without specififying products on them] in the back in preparation. So far I have still not noticed anything different in the store itself and I was just there on Thursday.
This isn’t really rumor, but I talked to my family physician today and asked her if anybody had asked her for prescriptions of Tamiflu. She said that nobody had. She said she was surprised that there has been absolutely no mention of pandemic preparation and they’ve had no training. She said this was odd, since the local doctors would obviously be the ones expected to respond in the event of a pandemic.
mcjohnston92 – at 17:41 That’s actually a very positive step, if true. It’s what we’ve been asking for and recommending, actual supply preparedness at the community level. If it’s being done quietly for now, I have no problem with that, as long as the stuff is getting set up for distribution if and when needed. I’ve been writing all the US senators about doing this very thing, and today wrote all my state representatives and senators with the same idea, setting up community based supply centers for distribution of the basics people will need if they have to isolate themselves during a pandemic. The fact that it seems to be happening doesn’t mean the flu is already on its way, it just means that perhaps our government has decided to do something proactive and sensible before it happens for a change. Hooray!
Thought I would make a quick post about a customer of mine. She is a nurse at the VA hospital. Have discussed bird flu with her for over a year now. She mentioned last week that they will start having meetings on bf. Pretty sure she said hers will be on the Nov 17, she said she would get copies of everything for me. So I will post more when I get any new info.
Mary in Hawaii – at 21:09 “I’ve been writing all the US senators “
Who, specifically have you written? Do you have a sample letter? I have a good friend who is a staffer for a U.S. Senator.
Dr. Dave
It’s good to see you have found some time to post again, (or maybe you have and I have justed missed them). I always enjoy reading them. Thanx.
Oh by the way, do you deal with that large gov supply place just east of Columbus Ohio? Just curious. (I had an apartment near it while I worked at AEP. The week of 9/11 that place was busier than a fallen wasp nest. And for the longest time it was blacked out on Google Maps).
JWB,
My work only includes the western half of the USA.
By the way, although my employer is developing a pandemic plan (primarily for business continuity), they are not going to give any of us advice about personal preparation. All they are willing to do is put certain work protocols into place and refer us to government web sites. Furthermore, I have been told by upper management that I should not distribute my prep essay via company e-mail. Apparently, to do so would imply a corporate approval of my prep advice, and that could cause legal consequences for my employer. For example, if someone acts on my recommendation to acquire a six month supply of fuel for heat, light, and cooking they might violate some local ordinance. Then, if there were a fire… Well, you can imagine how corporate lawyers view these things.
One other item of interest: I have a friend who works as an O.R. nurse. She is starting to prep for her family, but so far her hospital has not communicated any plan to her, so this has her pretty concerned for her own well-being. She has told me that when the pandemic is announced she and a few other nurses will submit their resignations and SIP.
I know there are a quite a few medical profesionals here at Flu Wikie. What will you folks do? Will you go to work? Perhaps this needs its own thread.
My hospital has done nothing…nada…zip, although I have been bothering everyone there for over 2 years. I work in ICU, if this starts I will be home, along with most of my co-workers.
My husband works in a hospital in the Tampa Bay area and there isn’t a peep, if you will pardon the expression, about bird flu. I ran into the lady who is head of infection control at the hospital when I was there having lunch with my husband last week. I casually mentioned she must be busy with flu season coming on and with the threat of bird flu and she looked at me like I had a horn growing out of my head. Her response was “bird flu is more media hype to scare the public and we should just get out flu shots and not worry.” My husband is out of there at the first sign of a pandemic and so are a lot of people but no one is talking about it openly. He is not directly involved with patient care but a lot of people who are say they are out of there if a pandemic happens.
I wonder if TPTB are afraid to inform health workers sufficiently lest they refuse to show up to work when the epidemic finally happens. They did a pretty good job of keeping it low profile for a long time by minimizing possible CFRs, but it seems like more and more people are waking up. I don’t think their ploy is going to work in the end. It will just leave more people unprepared.
They also don’t seem to want to spend the money for the best protection available for those that do show up. This is criminal in my opinion. I would think the government would have required hospitals to stock a huge inventory of PPE in case of bioterrorism, if nothing else. They certainly don’t flinch at imposing other un-funded mandates.
Maybe infection-control lady could get a large anonymous envelope in the mail…sigh…
Or better, the local paper could run …
oh, nevermind…
I should go put my own house in better order. So close to crispy burnout…
Most people who work in hospitals are truly angels. Nurses, technicians, transport people, dietary, housekeeping, maintenance and let’s not forget the volunteers. However hospitals are a business just like any other. It is all about budgets, bottom lines and a bonus for the executives. If it wasn’t then everyone in this country would have healthcare. My husband sees first hand every day where pennypinching is done on important things and money is squandered on items strictly for show and flash. Ventilators are more important than fountains but fountains win out.
crfullmoon @ 11:05-
take the day off and think about something really wonderful. For me it is Christmas. Decorateing my home, the smell of pine scented candels, haveing my friends and family in good health to share this holiday season with, all the baking, the flow of merlot, decorating our tree with my daughters, (and having hubby tie it up to the doorknow because it’s loaded with ornaments and falling!) and the beautiful white glistening snow that truely makes Christmas, Christmas. The energy is truely powerful, (but can be stressful). Take a break. You certainly deserve it. Hope you have a beautiful day.
cottontop standing a little to closer to the crackling fire…… :-)
commonground-
LOL!!!!!!
OMG-I’m sooo glad those days are over! Now I just wear 30lbs of cloths and have daughter pull me up out of the chair. (let it be known, that Christmas IS the only time I like snow. Dec.26, I go back to hating it with a white passion!)
Ya know cotton, I really wish we lived closer. Now you have yourself a wonderful day. I have a Cousin who is exactly like you as far as snow and cold goes, so I just nod my head and listen….by the way, got the windows open again!!! You can call me CG for short…
It seems like a catch 22. If the TPTB inform, then they run the risk of early shut down of the economy, etc. But, people will be better prepared most likely. It’s a tough call. A late call could see a higher infection rate, with more unprepared. I hope things continue to make their way to the public so they will have time to get ready.
Argyll.
Re Snow - we have learned an important lesson here in Canada - if you cant beat it, you may as well learn to love it!!! Bundle up and go for a walk on a sunny crisp 40 below day!!! Or learn to ski!! Take your grandchildren through the winter woods and look for deer tracks or signs of other little forest beasties - if it is grey and damp cold, then light the fire if you have one, or make a lovely fragrant slow cooked stew and read a book and just hunker down and relax! Take long naps!!! Bake some bread!! Play Clue with your kids! Practice what SIP without tv might be like!! It is ALL a question of attitude!!!
CG-
where you raised in a barn!! Close those windows!! We have been having a thunderstorm this morning. Daughter was getting ready for bowling and yells out, “Mom, thunder in November? That’s weird! Baby gets all excited and tells everyone to be quiet so she can hear. I would love for us to have a Fluwilie convention in Hawaii! I really want to meet you people and talk to ya’ll about things other than BF. It really sounds like fun.
Cotton:
“where you raised in a barn!!” Man I had flashbacks of being a kid….that was an expression I heard often!!! gharris - you are right, but for some humor, go to the Humour Thread and read: WISCONSIN WINTER WONDERLAND Diary of a snow shoveler - Post @ 11:50.
Getting back on track here - Argyll - I agree with you, but when/if a pandemic hits, the economy will be the least of our problems.
I like my snow glitter on Christmas cards. Though we all have magical memories of snow, and have our horror stories of driving in the damn stuff. Yet like anything else, nothing like the blue clean sky the first day afterwards. I feel exhilerated for just one day., and then would prefer to be in the Bahamas. News now. They are killing peoples pet dogs again in China. People are outraged but it continues. With China getting their choice into place at WHO I am going to be scouring news sources more. I have no faith in WHO. Too bad. Its up to every flu blog now.
Diana,
Great point. If the flu bloggers help to “connect the dots” across the board in each state and country — we will have a better shot at catching a pandemic a little ahead of time. A little time can make a huge difference in infection reduction.
How about a thread — How to Stay Healthy —? ( while in public).
Argyll.
I have a German foreign exchange student staying with us this school year. She says that an aunt works in a grade school (K-5) in Germany (W of Berlin). They are seeing a lot of flu right now and many of the students are out and some teachers. They don’t know if they will close the school or not. This is a little early for flu outbreaks there.
The point is that we might want to have a “seasonal flu” thread just for such outbreaks since early cases might be hard to differentiate.
Our weather is odd too. Hot, warm, cold then hot, cold… What I wear that is comfortable today is not tomorrow. Personally I think such wild fluctations in temperature aren’t healthy. Does anyone know if such variations do have any effect on us when viruses are in play? For a while I would turn the heat on, then off, then on again. Have been fine. So far I just wear silk scarves in open necked sweaters and layer. I don’t recall such a warm November. In the 60′s.
Dr Dave - Furthermore, I have been told by upper management that I should not distribute my prep essay via company e-mail. Apparently, to do so would imply a corporate approval of my prep advice, and that could cause legal consequences for my employer. For example, if someone acts on my recommendation to acquire a six month supply of fuel for heat, light, and cooking they might violate some local ordinance. Then, if there were a fire… Well, you can imagine how corporate lawyers view these things.
Bingo!!! I have had trouble figuring out why our places of business aren’t telling employees more. I read your thread and the light came on. They can’t tell us. The lawyers won’t let them. Thank you for your insight.
My neighbor is a hospital administator. their families are prepping. Talked with them again today. The hospital that he/she works at has leased space from two colleges, a very large hotel close to the hospital and an event center for hospital overflow. They have also bought beds & cots and have them stored. My friend is not planning on showing up for work and many of the staff are also not showing up. There has been talk of locking down the hospital to keep staff there because they know they will not come back if they get to leave. Word is spreading at this hospital but there have been no annoucments to the staff on preparing for it and storing food and supplies except by word of mouth.
Anon for this - Which city are you in? How long are they prepping for?
In Iowa and my neighbors are prepping for as long as possible. They have two adult children and thier other halfs and five grandkids. They have been working on their own until recently. No access to fluwikie and they have come to all the same conclusion that we have and will soon be ordering from mredepot too.
I also have a friend with an administrative job at a hospital. She has been working in the emergency room. She told me last weekend she had just attending a meeting on disaster planning, that the hospital plans on locking the employees in if a disaster happens. She asked for a transfer out of the emergency room. She said everyone had assignments and hers was to make tags and tag the dead bodies. This is in the event of a pandemic or nuclear event. My biggest question is at what point would they lock down. Nuclear is obvious, but at what point in a pandemic? Guess I need to call her.
Anon for This at 18:43 wrote: My friend is not planning on showing up for work and many of the staff are also not showing up. There has been talk of locking down the hospital to keep staff there because they know they will not come back if they get to leave.
I happened to be at one of our larger area hospitals last month during their pandemic preparedness exercise. The nurse who helped take my mother-in-law to my car mentioned that she was surprised that we had been allowed to leave during the drill, because her understanding was that the hospital was in lock-down. At the time, I assumed that the lock-down in the drill was to restrict incoming access or infected patients leaving. Now I have a better understanding of who they were really “locking down”.
“She has also read my essay “Becoming Self-Sufficient for Six Months” and she wants to distribute it to the faculty and staff.”
Dr. Dave, could you please direct me to where I can find this essay? I vaguely remember it being available here on a thread a while ago unless I’m confusing it with something else. Anyway, I would really love to see it.(TIA) Also, I’m very grateful for your work with the University. I have a son who is a junior at a private college in Boston. We did get one CYA letter in Sept on Pan Flu but not much was mentioned of their plans. Only for the students to create their own plans but they did require them submit their plan to the school. naomi :>} ps. if anyone else knows where this essay is posted I would appreciate it if they could please point me in the right direction. thanks :>}
The hospital I work for doesn’t have armed guards. What are they going to do if people go out the doors? Yell at us? Wrestle with us? The national guard units can’t cover every hospital in every state. Long before they show up HCW’s will know they’re coming. You can’t lock HCW’s in by force,we’re not the military.
Leo The problem with being on the premises when a emergency is announced is that if you leave you can be criminally charged with pt abandonment. At least thats the law in my state. I choose to go into homecare last year.I might have to pick up some staff relief for a while though my case is ending soon. Needless to say I will be keeping my eyes peeled for anything that might be starting. Doing staff relief is going to make me real nervous, hope I can pick up another case fast
What happens to the dependent family members of a HCW who is locked in? Would they actually force you to abandon your own children at such a time? If so, what kind of crazy law is that???
In the case of hospital lockdowns and patient abandoment, IMHO that a letter to the BON would be the least of my worries.
Makes me glad that I`m a rent-a-nurse ( work registry), noone can make me work if I don`t want to work.
I really don’t see how they could enforce a lockdown either … maybe the ones who AGREE to work would be locked down. She has no small children. I’m going to call her tomorrow and question her more. I’ll post what I find out.
naomi – at 20:05
Bronco Bill and Monotreme are actively reviewing my essay, but if you will post your e-mail address, I will be happy to forward a Word .doc version to you.
Suzi, Meserole, Leo etc., the health officers or directors of LDH have the authority to make you stay. Cactus, I hate to break it to you. You will be conscripted. If you are registered or certified as a HCW the county/state knows where to find you. All HCW can and will be conscripted to work if the SHTF hard enough. I don’t mean to upset anyone , but there are certain powers that HD can use during an emergency; so please prep and have a plan so your family can SIP without you. I am facing the same scenario — my teenagers will most likely be SIP and home alone :-( I have discussed this with them.
sorry meant LHD (local health depts)
Anon for this – at 18:43: The hospital that he/she works at has leased space from two colleges, a very large hotel close to the hospital and an event center for hospital overflow.
It is actually very welcome news to hear that someone is thinking that proactively. I wish that TPTB would release news of these kinds of preparations to the media. That way, people could watch for themselves the ramping up of governmental pandemic preparedness and decide for themselves what to do about it for their own families. An news blackout about these arrangements serves no one’s interests.
I found this a few days ago and have been troubled ever since…
“Workforce issues among healthcare workers, utility operators, transportation providers, or law enforcement not only create economic disruptions, they are threats to the safety and security of our nation.” —Michael Leavitt, Secretary HHS
power point presentation Bruce Gellin, Director National Vaccine Program Office HHS
http://dels.nas.edu/dr/docs/dr18/Gellin.pdf
I doubt that “workforce issues among healthcare workers” refers to healthcare workers who are out sick.
enza @ 2107: I’d be very interested in where I could reference information as to what you state. In my county plan, produced by our local health department, there is vague wording about essential workers working “with or without pay” — I took it to possibly mean conscription but I could hardly believe it. The wording really caught my attention because it left the option open.
tjclaw1 – at 22:03 I wrote every single one of the senators last weekend. Then yesterday I wrote every single one of the state representatives and state senators here in Hawaii. And next thing, as soon as I get a few spare hours, I will write the state senators and reps in So Calif where several of my children and their families live. I will be happy to send you a copy of the letter. email me at basqueitcase1@yahoo.com. aloha
Weren’t the cops who abandoned their posts to rescue their families during Katrina prosecuted? I seem to remember they were. Seems the same would apply to registered health care workers in the event of a pandemic emergency.
Aurora,
Great job on posting the power point presentation. Does anyone know what constitutes “ high risk?” Especially with regard to children.
Thanks,
Argyll.
“Pixie – at 21:22 Anon for this – at 18:43: The hospital that he/she works at has leased space from two colleges, a very large hotel close to the hospital and an event center for hospital overflow.
It is actually very welcome news to hear that someone is thinking that proactively. I wish that TPTB would release news of these kinds of preparations to the media. That way, people could watch for themselves the ramping up of governmental pandemic preparedness and decide for themselves what to do about it for their own families. An news blackout about these arrangements serves no one’s interests. “
During the aftermath of Katrina, two unused schools in the Portland, OR area were set up to house “refugees” from the destruction left by the hurricane. The schools were never used for that purpose because they said that, in the end, not enough of the refugees wanted to come to the Northwest.
The school cafeterias were made ready and the rooms were set up with cots, etc. I couldn’t help but think that they could have also been using that as a practice exercise to see how fast makeshift “flu hospitals” could be set up. I wonder how many other facilities were set up in a similar fashion and then not used for the stated purpose.
You know, who has what authority is pretty vague to me. How ould I find that out?
Meserole in FL – at 20:25
What happens to the dependent family members of a HCW who is locked in? Would they actually force you to abandon your own children at such a time? If so, what kind of crazy law is that???
Same crazy laws that apply to the National Guard.
Northstar—I’ll get something for you. It may not be until Monday, I’ll post on this thread or open one.
The U.S. Constitution prohibits involuntary servitude. People in the national guard and other armed services know what they sign up for (or at least they should). Do health care workers sign a contract that contains such a provision?
I highly doubt there will be enough prosecutors or police officers to run around arresting and prosecuting health care workers who don’t show up to work. Especially those who have families to care for. Think about it, what jury would convict them? Under what law? If you have a citation to authority for this, please post it so I can analyze it.
I know of no law that prevents a person from quitting their job. Now putting a hospital on lockdown because they are trying to prevent an infectious disease from spreading outside the hospital is a totally different matter. Locking a hospital down simply to keep health care workers there raises some serious civil rights issues.
Somewhere, several months ago, there was legislation passed that referred to the federal government “conscripting” medical workers in cases of ??… not national security, but something like that. Does anyone else remember that? I know it happened, because I didn’t reup my lab certification because of it. But I don’t remember what thread it was on.
Quarantien. Locks you down, makes you stay. There have been a LOT of new laws etc signed in the last year or two that give all kinds of powers to all kinds of folks (posted on this forum at different times). But go back to Katrina. No one arrested or bothered anyone till things were calmer. Then police/fire/hcw charged with various “crimes”. Some were real, some ? And National Guard/military sign up knowing they could be called to leave family. Others ought to be told to do POA’s, make arrangements “just in case”, but that would involve saying why.
Thanks, Monotreme. Glad to know you’re around - it makes me feel better somehow.
This was dated 2004 - I remember something happening this year, though it might have just be referencing this article. I’m not worried myself, but would hate to think this might happen to my friends still working in health care. Seems unlikely, but yet, some people in lofty places have obviously considered it.
Monotreme - Glad you are still around, as well as working on your own site :-).
I looked at the article Monetrome posted and noted it was published in October of 2004 specifically referencing Iraq. Are medical specialists required to register with the Selective Service as they suggested might happen? I’ve done some cursory research, and have not turned up any new laws on this. If anybody is aware of any specific laws passed, please post them for me. I’m not saying they don’t exist, I’m just looking for specific citations.
I do know that in 1918, the U.S. Supreme Court concluded that the powers of the federal government included conscription in Arver v. United States, 245 U.S. 366 (1918), but that case dealt with a military draft in times of war.
As far as Katrina, the only people I recall being prosecuted were police officers who actually committed crimes such as battery and looting, and health care workers who euthanized patients. Can anybody point me to any specific prosecutions of people for failing to show up to their jobs? Not that I don’t believe you, I just want to see, if so, what kind of crimes they were charged with and whether they were successfully prosecuted.
Whether or not they will be sucessfully prosecuted will be left to be seen. That’s why lawyers exist. But who knows what a post pandemic world will look like?
Ree— in 1918 they went looking for retired HCW, they were so desperate they looked up school records to find people who had quit nursing/med school.
Bird Guano – at 21:58 Same crazy laws that apply to the National Guard.
Yes, but anyone that is in the National Guard willingly signed up for it and knew that being called up would always be a possibility. That’s a very different scenario than being a regular health care worker, which could be anyone from an X-ray tech to a surgeon or a nurse to the maintenance workers making $7 an hour. It could even [conceivably] be the cafeteria lady, because all of those HCW’s and patients will need to eat.
Why would a HCW be forced to abandon his or her own children in a time of crisis in order to try to save someone else’s children? Who would really expect them to? What if they are single parents? That is never going to fly. I see big trouble on the horizon. Actually, I envision mass defections if they try to force the issue.
I’m not sure what the solution is, but conscription is not the right answer. Maybe they could be proactive and train volunteers - perhaps over-40′s with no dependent children. This won’t be possible unless/until they start telling the public the truth about the crisis we may be facing this year or next.
After the first wave there will be a fairly large sized group of ‘survivor volunteers’,that’s where ‘just in time’ training comes in (and yet another area for the lawyers to have a field day).
And, yes: some PTB are looking into ‘just in case’ training to meet the surge and decreased capacity.
At the beginning of hurricane season this year my husband’s department manager passed around a list. It was for A team and B team. The A team was required to be at the hospital for 72 straight hours and then the B team came in for the next 72 straight hours. They were told if they did not sign the list for either A or B team they would be fired. They were also told if they left anytime during their 72 hour shift they would be fired. Luckily it was never implemented this year because of a mild hurricane season.
As for drafting HCW with a draft or something. Can’t the government find all the healthcare workers and where they work and where they live just by accessing IRS records? Don’t know if that would be legal but in a national crisis maybe they could do it under “Martial Law”. Anyone out there know?
I am starting to feel paranoid.
This is from the Minnesota pandemic flu plan:
Evaluate whether or not employees can be ordered to come to work, and the difference between sworn and non-sworn employee’s requirements
I’m still around and will comment when I can help out. But to get raw, unfiletered Monotreme, you’ll have to come to my site ;-)
Well, that draft plan has age limits, and I am WAY over the top number.
Sometimes I actually feel kinda guilty about my decision not to work, but if all HCW do work, and a large number die, then those of us left can help with the rebuilding, afterwards.
I still feel that no matter what fancy dancy plans TPTB come up with, in 2 weeks after the Pandemic gets rolling there won`t be an open hospital left anyways.JIT will get them all.
With the collection and storage of specific data, the Agency might be employed as a repository or inventory of special skills dispersed across the U.S. resident population.
Potential users of those skills might be the Public Health Service, Peace Corps, Corporation for National Service, Bureau of Customs and Border Protection, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Service, etc.
At a minimum, this data could be made available for Federal, state or local recruiting efforts for hard-to-find skills.
In the late 1980s, Congress gave Selective Service the mission of designing a possible health care personnel draft. This program could be expanded if so directed by Congress and the White House to include other shortfall skills required in the future by the U.S. Armed Forces or civilian authorities.
Report to Congress 2004 SSS
I’m sorry - there should have quotes around all of that.
I’m sorry - there should have quotes around all othe above.
Meserole in FL – at 23:31
Bird Guano – at 21:58 Same crazy laws that apply to the National Guard.
Yes, but anyone that is in the National Guard willingly signed up for it and knew that being called up would always be a possibility.
You are required to register for selective service, even without active conscription.
‘’‘The US has reconstituted draft boards around the country, filling empty slots, with Congress providing funding.’‘’
I’m not sure what the solution is, but conscription is not the right answer. Maybe they could be proactive and train volunteers - perhaps over-40′s with no dependent children.
They already are. It’s called the “Medical Reserve Corps”
Connect the dots.
Sorry if I’m feeding this to you all kind of slow.
The last time I dropped the HCW Conscription laws are already on the books bombshell on another forum, there were some pretty spectacular adjustment reactions.
Bird Guano— go easy with them ;-) I’ve not said a fraction of what I could because I sensed an adjustment time period is neeeded. And it’s not just HCW.
Wonder if this is how TPTB feel?
Bird Guano – at 00:39 You are most correct, the Doctor/Nurse (HCW professional) draft has been around for awhile. To really let them know the rules, there is no age limit on that draft. If you are board certified and can pass a basic physical, you are draft able. (notice that I said HCW professionals, this includes Vets, Pharmacy workers and X-Ray techs). DOD already has standing, on demand, contracts at some of the large hotels around the country which they could make into hospitals. At my last assignment on Active Duty, I practiced this option in Denver. While we only activated all of the reserve and retirees in the area and set up in three of the hotels near Stapleton, we still practiced the full mobilization of Doctors and Nurses.
It will not be pretty when it happens but they really need to know that it can happen.
Not only that it CAN happen.
But that it’s PLANNED to happen.
I wonder how many HCW’s are even aware of this conscription?
Makes me [selfishly] glad that I work in academia. The worst thing I face is being unemployed for an extended period of time - and who really cares? I would NOT react gracefully to being ordered to abandon my children in their time of need.
How did they manage to pass such a law, anyway? I don’t remember hearing a thing about it in the news. Did they do it on the QT?
enza – at 00:48 And it’s not just HCW.
Who else is it? Utility workers? Police, firemen, EMT’s? The guy running the taco stand on the corner near the hospital? {sarcasm alert}
Bird Guano: I forgot to comment on this one -
You are required to register for selective service, even without active conscription. _____
Only if you are male.
And all women HCW’s are de-facto registered if you hold any type of HCW license.
Meserole in FL – at 01:38 enza – at 00:48 And it’s not just HCW.
Who else is it? Utility workers? Police, firemen, EMT’s? The guy running the taco stand on the corner near the hospital? {sarcasm alert}
Valid question.
Let’s take California as an example, since I know of what I speak.
In California there is a designation called “Disaster Service Worker”.
ALL State, city and county employees are Registered (and take an oath) as DSW’s, except Police and Fire (separate gov’t code section covers them).
Some volunteers like CERT teams and Ham Radio Operators are also DSW’s.
Public Works, Janitors, Cooks in Prisons, Dispatchers, HCW’s in county hospitals, etc.
The CA Government code specifically states that if there is a declared disaster you MUST report for work, and “make every attempt to comply with duties assigned”.
There is no mention of OSHA, PPE or Tamiflu availability as conditions. Just that you “must”.
Of course they probably won’t have the manpower to hunt you down at the time, but perhaps some nasty criminal stuff post-pandemic will come and find you if you don’t show up.
And they will definitely know where you live.
Bird Guano – at 01:51
I see trouble ahead for one big reason. They are expecting workers to abandon their own families - unlike being in the military, when you have some reassurance that your family is being cared for adequately while you’re in a war zone. (Base housing if available, commissary, PX, free medical, monthly salary, etc.)
They will need to ensure that families of conscriptees are being looked after properly, or it will not work. If they are really expecting people to turn their backs on their families, we could very well see a revolution of sorts.
Do I want to be in a hospital where the nurses and doctors are distracted and worried about their families [best case scenario] or angry as hell and resentful of my presence [worst case scenario] because I’m the reason why they’re not home? No, I do not.
Monotreme - I tried a link I had saved to your site, and it came up “funny”. Would you mind gmailing me a link, since I might not find it again on FW? Or post it here and I’ll try to find this thread tomorrow. Thanks!
MayAllBeWell at gmail.com
Well, this thread is interesting. Please list one group of people working in a hazardous situation without pay in America? Doesn’t exist.
In all the speeches, slide presentations and reading on emergency conscription, what happens to the HCW who refuses? Hung, shot, imprisioned? I guess a few HCW’s swinging from a limb would be a deterrent, but so would an armed HCW.
Monotreme - plz send me your URL or repost it for those of us who DO want you uncensored. Thanks. galenmcb @ erols dot com
Dr.Dave “they, along with most universities, will attempt to send their students home” Imagine the travel and traffic problems; worse than Katrina! Uh oh…
Forcing hcw to work; grr, what’s the country coming to? Well, they could all quit now; give up their licenses, tell the public why, and maybe we could throw the real bums out and get ready… before pandemic hits…
Re-hire the health care workers under some sort of state-single-payer health care, or, heck- like the community-supported-agriculture; maybe communities could see what skills they have and all chip in a certain ammount of money, and get health care when they need it; locally-owned small hospitals/health care networks? Subsidized housing for essential workers? Tax breaks for essential workers?
;-)
What the heck is so bad for the people about us wanting the public to have the facts?? The Flu Wiki seems more honest and ethical than our tax dollars at work…
If what enza, bird guano, and AON-451 are hinting at is true, then I am starting to see why there hasn’t been a big rush to inform the rank and file HCW (or any other low-level “essential” employee) of what’s potentially in the offing.
crfullmoon – at 07:06
I think that it is very difficult for an institution such as a university, a corporation, or a local government to make a really clear delineation between what will actually take place in a pandemic and what sorts of consequences are merely possible. However, without a clear delineation, they can not act decisively. To me, that explains why the advisory statements are so limited and conservative. But, what if the statements were not conservative? Could everyone prepare adequately? No.
I have friends, neighbors, relatives, and colleagues who are not exactly poor, but do not have the means to buy anything beyond their basic needs. I do not want to see them suffer, but even if a pandemic were announced tonight, they would be hard-pressed to obtain an additional two or three months’ worth of food. As for OTC meds, household supplies, PPE, alternative energy sources, et cetera, there is just no way they could swing it. Then, we have the people are really poor and they will be hit very hard.
According to the 2005 United States Census, approximately 12.5% of the American population is impoverished. That works out to roughly 37,500,000 people who live in households with annual incomes of less than $20,000 for a family of four. At this income level, these people are unable to meet all of their own needs for food, shelter, clothing, and medicine; therefore, they must rely upon some government assistance program or private charity in order to survive. As you might expect, the ones who are gainfully employed tend to perform menial labor in low-paying industries, such as agriculture, food service, lodging, janitorial, entertainment, and transportation. Just think of all the people in the USA (and elsewhere) who work in thankless, dead-end jobs as busboys, dish washers, fry cooks, custodians, chamber maids, ticket takers, ushers, car washers, landscapers, field hands, parking lot attendants, et cetera. These people do not have the disposable income necessary for even the most rudimentary pandemic preparations. They live from paycheck to paycheck, buying only what can for daily subsistence. They could not possibly “shelter in place” for more than a week or two, because they simply do not have the resources.
I no longer queston why pandemicflu.gov merely recommends that each family acquire a two week supply of food and water. If you consider the financial resources of the poor, two weeks may be the lowest common denominator.
Dr Dave – at 20:57
‘’naomi – at 20:05
Bronco Bill and Monotreme are actively reviewing my essay, but if you will post your e-mail address, I will be happy to forward a Word .doc version to you. ‘’
Dr Dave, Would you send me your essay too? Thanks.
jwbatfluwiki at yahoo dot com
So, the entire populace should get blindsided? We will lose too many people and experience to have any effective sort of recovery period. (Especially at current cfr).
Some on low incomes are responsible and frugal and will prep if they had honest warning of danger and consequences; so would some of the people here with huge mcmansions and mortgages, who currently waste their disposable income on SUV’s, all sorts of extra lessons for their kids, hair and nails, fitness memberships, eating out most nights of the week, making unnecessary purchases, ect. Uber-rich could, if they chose, play philanthropist and make sure their police, fire, hcw, electrical grid, any local food producers, sanitation, mortuary services, community, ect, had a better chance of surviving a couple of pandemic waves… Not everyone who gets a windfall or a tax refund goes to Disneyland or buys beer with it. Especially if they know they’re on their own.
Teach people the current “lifestyle” is a poncy scheme about to go smash as H5N1 rolls more and more genetic dice. Some will try and do their best. No leaders call for sacrifice and self-reliance anymore; probably because they themselves have no good character to speak of; our election system setup seems to have selected away from good government, somehow.
Dr Dave – at 08:03
Well said/explained.
crfullmoon – at 08:38 Teach people the current “lifestyle” is a poncy scheme…
Ponzi
JWB,
Mail call.
Dr Dave – at 08:03, crfullmoon – at 08:38
IMHO you’re both right. I’m what’s commonly called a ‘pink-collar’ worker. Divorced 6 years ago, female, saw income decline precipitously and a few family emergencies to boot. Tough stuff.
But given the information, and adequate time, I’ve been able to prepare quite well on a very limited income and little if any support from grown children (for whom I’m also prepping).
I am certain that there will always be a segment of any given population which will disregard any and all recommendations to prepare for an emergency. This has little, if anything, to do with the social or economic strata. McMansionistas or hotel room vagrants - all the same.
However, there are also those, regardless of circumstance, who, given a realistic view to the possible situation, WILL prepare to the best of their ability. It is to those that any efforts must be directed.
This is why, again IMHO, the dearth of information in popular media is a scandal and may rise to the level of a crime.
(rats; I knew I should have Google/spellchecked that guy’s name)
Yeah, Wolf - where’s the “reckless endangerment” or hm, “negligance” line drawn, under these circumstances?
crfullmoon – at 09:09
Should worst come to worst, it may be drawn under the bead of a competent marksman, unfortunately.
I don’t want to see it come to that.
This is why at the local level, which IMHO across the board is not actively panflu planning, all sectors must be involved. Who took care of the post-Katrina victims most effectively?
Faith based organziations, large and small.
If LOCAL planning is not done, then all the top and middle planning is worthless.
“Should worst come to worst, it may be drawn under the bead of a competent marksman, unfortunately.”
A marksman on which side? We wonders, yes; we wonders…
:-/
Reckless endangerment now to have top-level speeches saying all stakeholder and community involvement in preparation is vital, and then have key facts bottlenecked (or lied about by the local health dept; “only h-h-stop”, “must be missing many cases that are too mild to go to hospital”, pandemic will “ramp up slowly elsewhere with months of warning” for us) or the issue just not mentioned to the public by the state level.
Saying individuals need to have the information to cope in place, does not mean release it at start of pandemic when they realize they have nothing at home to cope with disruptions during a wave. Local level says, public must look after their neighbors, but, hasn’t told the public what a pandemic is, that one seems imminent, nor that they may need to care for their neighbors during a contagious virulent event with a high young/healthy fatality rate and no vaccine nor cure. Too much is staying in their own little meeting bubbles and not intersecting with the populace’s radar, and, they’re planning it that way.
You know, I am a rehab therapist. In the pandemic plan, I have become an essential conscripted worker. I have enough medical background to perform designated “nursing duties”.
In my education, they never told me that I might have dangerous duties, and danger pay was never discussed in my agreement with my employer, believe me. I don’t work in the ER on purpose….it is not my “thing”.
I am governed by a professional college. I will be performing NONE of the tasks I am registered to perform. (Scene: “Hi. I am a therapist, here to do your nursing for today. Please bare your arm, so I can give you this shot.”)
Let’s just say this pandemic thing, complete with bad equipment, is VERY far from anything I trained for, or agreed to do.
And, they don’t even have the shot… (insert rolling eyes here…)
Thought you health care/essential workers might like to see this, especially point 5: (This is from the Macomb County (MI) Health Department Pandemic Influenza Response Plan)
V. LEGAL AUTHORITIES A. Counties and Municipalities Each county or municipality has an appointed Emergency Management Coordinator pursuant to Section 9, Michigan Emergency Management Act (Public Act 390 of 1976, as amended). The chief executive official of a county or municipality or the official designated by charter may do one or more of the following in the event of a disaster or emergency: 1. Declare a local state of emergency or disaster if circumstances within the county or municipality indicate that the occurrence or threat of widespread or severe damage, injury, or loss of life or property from a natural or human-made cause exists and under a declaration of local state of emergency, issue directives as to travel restrictions on county or local roads. 2. Appropriate and expend funds, make contracts, and obtain and distribute equipment, materials, and supplies for disaster purposes. 3. Provide for the health and safety of persons and property, including emergency assistance to victims of the disaster. 4. Direct and coordinate local multi-agency response to emergencies within the county or municipality. 5 5. Appoint, employ, remove, or provide, with or without compensation, rescue teams, auxiliary fire and police personnel, and other disaster workers. 6. If a state of disaster or emergency is declared by the Governor, assign and make available for duty the employees, property or equipment of the county or municipality relating to fire fighting; engineering; rescue; health, medical and related services; police; transportation; construction; and similar items or service for disaster relief purposes within or without the physical limits of the county or municipality as ordered by the Governor or director (i.e., Director, Emergency Management Division, Michigan Department of State Police).
No mention as to who our appointed Emergency Management Coordinator is or who he/she reports to.
Now, I thought this was a pretty handy-dandy little 90 pg plan for our little township, but then I recalled we do have that ANG base here…
Dr Dave – at 08:58
Got it. Read it. EXCELLENT!
It pretty well sums it all up in one nice package.
Another objective overview of my preps is now planned for TODAY.
Thanks.
Dr Dave: I would very much like a copy of your if you have the time to send it.
AverageConcernedMom @ hotmail dot com
many thanks!
Dr. Dave: I would also love to have a copy. Thanks in advance for the time and effort you’ve put into thinking about all this, and for your generosity in sharing it.
Pixietheflutracker at yahoo dot com
When we get a pan-flu czar, can you please send it to them too? :-)
Dr Dave: Me too please when you get a chance. Thanks kbhattyatlaw @ msn dot com
I watched the movie “ Bird Flu,Fatal Contact In America” this weekend than just for fun I had some of my employees watch it. I loved the looks on there faces, finally through the miracle of Hollywood, I am being taken seriously. I bought the movie at Block Buster. If you havent seen it and you want others with less knowledge to see it, than please be prepared to answer many questions.I have found this movie to be a tool to use in my teaching.
Dr Dave: ditto. thanks. quilter dot 1 at hotmail dot com
First I’ve heard of it - give us some specs, Maid. (to find at local movie store ) Sounds terrific! Thanks!
Maid in Michigan —
funny thing about that movie — when it was first broadcast, I remember the lengths the media went to to say, NOw everyone this is just fiction, calm down, don’t worry, it is just fiction. (This was right around the time when I first started learning abour bird flu and I avoided watching the movie because I thought it was all hype.
Then I started reading the reviews and what professional groups were saying. And I noticed everyone kept saying that 1) there wasn’t RIGHT NOW any pandemic flu and 2) the movie wasn’t accurate because they had mass graves and we wouldn’t do mass graves, people would bury their dead in their backyards.
I mean, really they couldn’t find much that was factually wrong with the movie. Also, even though the movie was supposedly a worst case scenario (remember I didn’t watch) as I recall from people talking abotu it, there was no infrastructure problem factored in.
It would be really funny to watch the movie now from my new perspective and see if I come away with “Is that all? That doesn’t seem so bad….”
Dr.Dave could you email me too. ketwrs at aol dot com
I taped that movie. Now I gotta find where it is.
Maybe a copy to Oprah would help get it back into the MSM. She seemed to take it seriously by the fact she showed her interview with whats his face twice.
JWB – at 11:41
The problem with the Oprah interview with Osterholm was that he had the audience eating out of his hand, and they (and Oprah) were really paying attention.
Then he said the fatal words “it might not happen for 5 years or 10.” That is all my friends needed to hear, and it gave them permission to park the problem at the far rear of their brains. To be fair, Osterholm was just telling the truth - we don’t know when a pandemic will happen. We can’t get into the spread by district in birds in Indonesia or China, and we can’t get very far into talking about the what’s happening in the sequences themselves before people just glaze over. So, any “evidence” that might let people know that a pandemic might happen sooner rather than later is hard to communicate. All I know is until we figure out how to communicate the “sooner” part, everyone I know who watched Osterholm on Oprah came away holding fast to the “later” part of his message. It was only 2 seconds of an entire hour interview, but that’s the part they stubbornly listened to.
pixie — at 11:51 I agree completely. People don’t pay attention until they get the intersection of “could be severe” and “could be soon”. Clearly some groups in the US have been “getting the memo” connecting those two points for people.
Dr. Dave, and me too if you have the time. fluprepper@yahoo.com Thanks so much
Dr. Dave - me too, please. samalam@cox.net
Thanks
Naomi,
What is your address?
Dr. Dave I’d like a copy too since I probably won’t be on the wiki much from this point forward.
birdguano at gmail.com
Thanks
What was the URL again for Monotreme’s blog ?
I can’t seem to find the threat that contained it.
LOL, never have multiple documents and forum screens up at once.
Make that THREAD, not threat.
LOL
BG, I left it on the Ask the Mods thread in my last comment.
Thank you.
Dr Dave, I like your down-to-earth style of writing. If it’s not too much trouble, after so many requests, me too!
prernuts at hotmail dot com
Dr Dave, a big thank-you.
dr dave: re essay
I would be pleased to look at your essay.
rawdirt a t easystreet d o t c o m
After thinking about the conscription of HCW’s I am stuck on this thought. For some time I have believed that in order to keep everyone at work to hold up our economy the actually severity of the flu will be tapped down. (Bracing the economy is what’s fondly called here as keeping the grid up). Meaning PF could blow through in another state without most of us noticing, because we keep working. But once a roundup of HCW’s take place this illusion is gone, and by then, the ability to round them up diminshed by personal family concerns of the people ordered to pick HCW up. So let’s take bets here: Will we see stepped up diaster response before it blows through (first wave) or will it be business as usual? Opinions?
When it is truly recognised the pandemic has started we will all then have a new reality. Disaster response, public and private, will be the new reality until the pandemic has passed. Then the reality will be recovery.
Once it has begun, there will be no “business as usual”.
Business as usual—the release of the state department memo and then the removing of it speaks volumes. The hospital leasing space ahead of time—whiich is good---speaks volumes too. The lawyers had to have been working on this quite awhile---Only a certian class of people will ever be truly notified and warned. The hospitals own employees are not being told. The CDC and the WHO we stongly suspect are not telling the truth. I can’t see them now or ever coming clean with accurate data. Just MO
Dr. Dave,
If you could include me in the BCC of the next mailing. Thanks in advance.
fluwiki_oremus at yahoo dot com
No, I don’t think there will be any announcement at all. It will be each for their own. Only the upper PTB will know for sure, the rest of the public will only find out as it hits this shore and maybe not even then, if they can control the media.
I don’t know if this is true of other areas, but the supermarkets are stocking wood packets from places like Estonia. Whole yule logs (ridiculously expensive) also. Might be I never noticed last winter or the winter before. Even outdoor Italian style fire container for $99. I’ve seen those in Restaurants in the out of doors areas for chilly nite dining.I might just be more alert to anything for outages and self sufficiency. I noticed a sick kid in a Burger King last nite. Very red cheeks, looked glittery eyed and feverish to me, cranky and sick. I think it might be the beginning of the regular flu season here. Our weather is so erratic. This morning it was sixty degrees, was sitting by an open door having a late breakfast, and the air dropped down 20degrees in minutes . Hot in my sweater one minute and shivering the next. Have the feeling we are in for a nasty flu season a lot earlier than usual.. Getting my Purell handy.
Two things are happening down here.
1. Supermarkets seem to be stocking right up on basics, (flour Sugar etc.)
2. The largest supermarket chain in the country has their workerd using plastic gloves (at least in the two I’ve visited).
Dr. Dave, if it’s not too much trouble, could you also send me your essay?
lakeeffect001 at gmail d o t com
Thanks!
Ocean2,
My e-mail to you was rejected. Please confirm your address.
Hi Dr. Dave,
Can you please send me your essay too?
kelparker at ucdavis d o t edu
Thanks!
Dr. Dave, if you could include me in your mailing I would be most appreciative.
lohrewoks@yahoo.com
Walrus-what grocery store chain are you referring too? Also remember the holiday season is coming up, grocery stores anticipate a lot of people cooking at home. You will see a lot of baking supplies and seasonal merchandise being pushed.
Dr. Dave,
You’ve got mail!
Lohrewok,
I’m a rare Southern Walrus, I swim in the cold waters of Port Phillip Bay, Victoria, Australia. No holiday preps here because we don’t have a thanksgiving holiday:(
Supermarket chain is Cole’s Stores, biggest in the country.
Dr Dave,
I would very much appreciate a copy as well.
nimbus_nw at yahoo dot com
Thanks in advance!
Monotreme,your website is down again.How can we reach it?
Dr Dave – at 20:57 naomi – at 20:05
Bronco Bill and Monotreme are actively reviewing my essay, but if you will post your e-mail address, I will be happy to forward a Word .doc version to you.
I’m here!! I’m here!! (LOL) Sorry, I took a break from the computer today! :>}
Thank you Dr Dave! :>} My address is: Ncs83056@aol.com
Dr Dave – at 20:57 naomi – at 20:05
Bronco Bill and Monotreme are actively reviewing my essay, but if you will post your e-mail address, I will be happy to forward a Word .doc version to you.
I’m here!! I’m here!! (LOL) Sorry, I took a break from the computer today! :>}
Thank you Dr Dave! :>} My address is: Ncs83056@aol.com
Sorry for double posting. It was taking so long I lost patience and hit the send button again. my bad :>{
Dr. Dave, if you could include me in your mailing I would be most appreciative.
Thanks!
twa dot site at gmail dot com
Nimbus, Naomi, and TWA,
I hope I entered your addresses correctly. TWA, are the letters “site” part of your address?
Thank you Dr Dave! Got it. :>}
I have planned for conscription and I advice my HC cohorts to do the same. I will be going to my daughters in another state. My phone will be disconnected my mail stopped [no change of address. My son and his family will be moving into my house In short if they cant find you they cant get you! Please think ahead everyone and plan accordingly BTW What kind of job do you think these HCW aka slaves will be doing. Yuo can lead a horse to water but you cant make them drink. IMO forced workers are going to become hystericial and useless, but what do I know
The rumors just keep rolling in! This thread is long and needs to be closed, but we’ll continue with all Rumors great and small here
Oops!