From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: New Rumors XIII

12 November 2006

Bronco Bill – at 19:42

Continued from here. Hmmm…is XIII a good number? I hope nobody out there has Triskaidekaphobia!


janetn – at 19:33

I have planned for conscription and I advice my HC cohorts to do the same. I will be going to my daughters in another state. My phone will be disconnected my mail stopped [no change of address. My son and his family will be moving into my house In short if they cant find you they cant get you! Please think ahead everyone and plan accordingly BTW What kind of job do you think these HCW aka slaves will be doing. Yuo can lead a horse to water but you cant make them drink. IMO forced workers are going to become hystericial and useless, but what do I know

Scooba – at 20:00

Bronco Bill at 19:42

Is XIII a good number?

Mu husband was born on Friday the 13th, 1942 and tomorrow is his birthday and we were married on Friday the 13th of December, 1968.

No triskaidekaphobia here!

Surfer – at 20:11

Janetn

Geez - ya paint a bleak picture - but you are right. Now, perhaps HCW’s are / were required to to sign a service agreement. I dunno. If you did, then perhaps you shud abide by it. But, I would not blame you if you skipped out. You won’t be court martialed - and as you say, if they can’t find you, they can’t get you. Your first duty is to you and your own.

It does little good to dive into a cauldron of molten iron in order to save a mouse that preceded you, and has already died on impact.

Those in the Armed Forces of the USA are a different story. They are obligated to their agreement. It they go down, our country goes down.

anon for this one – at 20:27

I heard the US Embassy personnel in Lima Peru is getting “vaccinated” and are required to prep for SIP for 3 months.

cottontop – at 20:32

anon for this one @ 20:27

please tell us where you heard this?

INFOMASS – at 20:47

Maybe Anon_22 can jump in, but I doubt that State Department workers are getting an H5N1 vaccination. They may be getting regular flu and pneumonia vaccinations, as we all should. The H5N1 strains are shifting and the pandemic strain has not yet emerged (we think), so the utility of vaccines based on earlier strains (and these have their own problems) would be limited. The prepping for three months appears to be advice to high priority or emergency workers in the US and perhaps to those working/living abroad where extra stores might be needed - assuming their supply lines are even less robust than ours. Nothing prevents anyone from storing that much food and water themselves except space and money. We should be getting advice that doing that much is a prudent precaution rather than the few days or weeks stuff. I do not know how many would follow “prudent” advice, but at least they would have been warned. Since whole communities could collapse, encouraging more prepping is vital.

Reconscout – at 20:49

Back during Katrina an AM station in Louisiana went to 24 hour news broadcasting.They reported on the numerous AWOL`s in the New Orleans police force but an interesting contrast with the state police was also noted.It seems that protected refuges for the officer`s families were set up in the northern part of the state in advance of the emergency.Consequently there was no desertion problem with the state highway patrol.If there will be mandatory lockdowns then such protections must be in place for essential worker`s families or the system will collapse.

janetn – at 21:10

Reconscout Nice thought but it just aint gonna happen. TPTB who run the healthcare system havent even seen fit to buy enough [in some cases any] N95 masks or Tamiflu for the staff its not likely they would pony up the money for the families. Healthcare in this country is money driven, all you here about is theres no money no money no money.Yet somehow they find money for building projects and slick commercials. But Ive seen nurses written up for using to many washcloths caring for patients.

Reconscout – at 21:32

Janetn,I unfortunatly agree.I was just pointing out the contrasting results between two policies.Apart from the money issue there is the fact that any large scale prep for essential worker`s families would be impossible to hide.It would require governments everywhere to come clean about this(not just in the US)and they do not seem to want to kick over that political ant bed yet.

Bronco Bill – at 22:27

Scooba – at 20:00 --- Good to hear. But triskaidekaphobia? Not a problem here…but don’t ask me to get off on the 13th floor of a high-rise! ;-)

Walrus – at 22:32

Just got back from the supermarkets. Everything is getting stocked up to a much higher level than I have ever seen before, period. The Australian Pandemic Flu Plan calls for the Government to advise everyone to stock up when phase four is declared, or earlier if the Minister and his medical advice committee decide it is wiser. There has been liason with the food industry and supermarket chains, and Australia has more than enough food to feed itself ten times over - if it can be processed and distributed.

It’s worth noting that I started prepping only about six months ago after discovering that some of the people I’ve worked with, highly respected medical academics and researchers, told me to take the flu seriously and several told me they had their own stocks of Tamiflu for themselves and their families - and I’m not making this up.

When I first started visiting the supermarkets, the stuff that forms the basis of my preps, 20 pound bags of rice, canned meat and vegetables, etc. was at relatively low stock levels. Canned corn beef would be three cans wide, two cans high but only two rows deep. There would be maybe only three big bags of rice. All that has changed, and no its not seasonal.

Reconscout – at 22:44

BroncoBill,on some elevators there is no 13th floor!Check it out when you are in a tall building and see.(LOL)

Bronco Bill – at 22:50

Reconscout – at 22:44 --- I have noticed that…especially in California! But, believe it or not, in the building I work in now, here in Virginia, the top floor is number 13!

Reconscout – at 23:03

It has been nice knowing you Bill.(LOL)

worldman – at 23:56

walrus, if you dont mind me asking, what part of Australia are you from.. I am in the States now, born in Melbourne and my son was born in Sydney. Most of my family is from the Bendigo / Echuca area.

My wife and I would love to retire back in Australia. If things go right (see no flu) and when the kids get out of High School, then maybe.

Take care,

13 November 2006

anon for this one – at 00:08

cottontop – at 20:32 Sorry for the delay, comment made by someone I know there. Confirmed. Probably pneumovax.

Has anyone noticed http://www.ready.gov/america/getakit/cleanair.html ? Mentions of SIP, face masks, taping up windows with plastic sheeting and duct tape, HEPA filters, and what seems like a link that is not operative yet, “Read more: Deciding to Stay or Go.”.

Can someone check how old this web is?

mj – at 00:26

anon for this one – at 00:08 see the info on their press site - http://tinyurl.com/suuea - Have you checked out ReallyReady.org yet?

anon for this one – at 01:05

mj – at 00:26 - thank you for the info!

seabird – at 06:41

not to sound ignorant, but what does “ Level 4 stand for ? I know we are at level 3 right now according to “ WHO

crfullmoon – at 07:12

“protected refuges for the officer`s families” Just don’t like the sound of that, somehow… they’d (responders’ bosses? the guvmint?)sure would have their families held somewhere for a long time.

I guess they really say Phase 3, but I consider the whole WHO phase alert system to have been unplugged (for political reasons) twelve months ago. No place should be twiddling their thumbs just because the phase level didn’t get raised.(Even though the definitions of what is 3 and what is 4 got rewritten) The WHO said, back in Jan, that they’d respond to new situations without deciding to change the alert level first.

Dr.Nabarro has always said, don’t put preparedness and difficult problems off; pandemic could happen at any time, and now, he said we may not be able to see any sign that it is closer to going pandemic; it may just “hit us”.

Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston is wondering whether to vote to authorise a strike; sure wonder if nurses also are paying attention to H5N1 and negotiating about the inadequate pandemic preparedness and planning and public awareness…

ssol – at 07:34

Dr Dave - may I have a copy also? Thank you. ssol1232000atyahoodotcom

Ocean2 – at 08:45

Dr. Dave, thanks for responding. Of course it didn’t work- I left out something! prernuts2b at hotmail dot com. This time I wore my reading glasses…..

Michigan Mom – at 08:49

Dr. Dave, could I please have a copy. Thanks sew43@aol.com

Green Mom – at 09:16

Dr. Dave, I would also like a copy, please. Thanks- kygreenmom@yahoo.com

Green Mom – at 09:17

Does anyone know of any conscription plans for mental health practioners? I’m sure they will be needed AFTER the epidemic, but during?

Jody – at 09:34

Green Mom: I was reading the new version of the Ontario Pandmic Plan last night. They have an entire form where you assess your competancies. So if you need a refresher at something, (theoretically) you have time to do it. The form does draw on past experience. So if as a nurse you have been trained to give injections, or do personal care, you will be conscripted to do so during the pandemic. They are desperate for workers. They are entertaining vets and dentists. I do believe it is realistic to expect that you will not be asked to do brain surgery, but do expect to be seconded from your feild of expertise.

crfullmoon – at 09:44

Mental health care is mentioned, (and mentioned more often than what to do with dead bodies)in the state or business plans for during; (“stress management” - what else is it coded? I forget) people are going to be traumatized and tptb expect mental health care will suddenly be put to answering hotlines, and being there to care for front-line staff, so they can send them back into pandemic of course…and of course front-line mental health professionals have not been told of all this; similar to most hcw. When they do mention deaths at all, public/staff is/are expected to be traumatized by losses, but, the plans make it sound like mental health will just be dispensing magic that will help, despite the practitioners in the mental health or grief support fields are themselves going to be blindsided and affected just like the rest of the population. “Gee, they knew and didn’t warn you, but, life’s not fair and we don’t have time for all that right now, sorry”?

I am sure shrinks have heard way more about being in a pandemic alert period, and, what H5N1 is up to, and, what officials are doing wrong from their consumers (and/or their spouses) (probably several conferences worth) than from any offical pandemic planners (who have probably said zilch, or, that pandemic will be a 6-week 1968-like event, who knows?).

JWB – at 09:48

I wasn’t going to post this but after reading this http://tinyurl.com/sup8l and discussing it via email with other fluwikiens I decided I might as well. It will probably be in the news here in the states soon anyway.

Over the weekend I had a conversation with a long time friend and sometimes co-worker about where she’s presently working. She’s at the Sanofi site in Swiftwater, Pennsylvania. This facility (43 buildings) makes a wide variety of vaccines including bird flu.

They just completed a new building, about the size of a football field that will make just bird flu vaccine. It is called The Flu Zone. It is very restricted. My friend holds a position that takes her all over the site but even she is denied access to this building.

Yesterday she told me that the perimeter of the entire site has been undergoing security upgrades for months. The state police and National Guard have been used for security for quite some time (years).

Now this is where it gets interesting to me. She says this week DHS is coming in to completely take over security. That new restrictions are going to be implemented. She thought that it was unusual because she thinks it already is very secure.

The conclusion we came up with is the same scenario that the CEO of GSK stated in the above linked article. The PTB must be thinking (and acting) that the crap is about to hit the fan, and that masses of people are going to storm the vaccine plants.

Not good. We must be getting close.

cottontop – at 09:59

JWB- please translate- DHS?

I haven’t said anything, because I haven’t wanted to sound like I’ve just jump the gun on all of this, but I have been having a strong sense of the storm has gathered strength. It’s a combination of alot of things, things that have picked up pace. I suppose the announcement of the three embassies really put me over the edge. There’s just too much that makes me feel uncomfortable to think we are years away on this. I don’t have any idea of what’s going to happen, but something is going on, and there is a growing urgency from around the world. Thank you for sharing with us. It will make my trip into town more meaningful when I buy more preps.

crfullmoon – at 10:02

Dept of Homeland Security, cottontop

cottontop – at 10:06

crfullmoon- thanks for the translation. the sureal feeling just keeps getting more intense.

Jody – at 10:08

Green Mom: I was reading the new version of the Ontario Pandmic Plan last night. They have an entire form where you assess your competancies. So if you need a refresher at something, (theoretically) you have time to do it. The form does draw on past experience. So if as a nurse you have been trained to give injections, or do personal care, you will be conscripted to do so during the pandemic. They are desperate for workers. They are entertaining vets and dentists. I do believe it is realistic to expect that you will not be asked to do brain surgery, but do expect to be seconded from your feild of expertise.

crfullmoon – at 10:10

Surreal enough for me to hear a year ago people I thought were charged with telling the public are, uh, dead set, against doing so.

And, all that election campaign hoopla with nary a whisper about the pandemic influenza year hanging over our heads by a thread…

Pixie – at 10:23

cottontop – at 09:59 …something is going on, and there is a growing urgency from around the world.

What I look for is a growing urgency from around the world to attempt to “manage” the problem. That’s always been on my radar screen as very likely to happen as we get closer to a pandemic event. You’d think, at first glance, that it would be the opposite - more news coming out, etc. I don’t think so. Human nature (in every country, and not just on the part of the usual suspects) when things begin to ramp up is to attempt to manage things, coordinate, act in an organized manner. Often that tighter control is followed by what appears to be a sudden “blow up” of the event anyway. In hindsight, it often is clear that those events were not sudden at all, but only “well managed” for a critical period of time. I have an uneasy feeling these days too, and it comes from increasing signs of this type of “management.”

crfullmoon – at 10:27

cranks up the Victrola, You say “management” I say “coverup” -let’s call the whole thing off…

cottontop – at 10:33

crfullmoon-

that’s more along the line I was thinking. But Pixie is right on. they are trying to manage (or coverup) some thing that isn’t manageable, or can be covered up. I think their scrambling.

Pixie – at 10:35

crfullmoon – at 10:27

They really do think of it as “management.” They think they are being professional.

Think of it this way: If there was a new product announcement at Intel, they’d “manage” that too. They’d not want any underlings having a new product announcement party before the company sponsored event. They would try to manage leaks of news of the new product to various media. They’d want to present an organized and smooth new product announcement to the world, led by clear guidance from those in authority at the top. It would all be very professional.

So that’s what I think that some of TPTB in nations as well as the WHO think they are doing in attempting to “manage” this H5N1 problem. I say this by way of explanation, not approval. This is not just a new Intel chip we are talking about, is it, and that is precisely where the analogy breaks down. But they’ll manage this “new product announcement” like it was a new Intel chip for as long as they can get away with it. And, they think they are being responsible and professional to do so.

JWB – at 10:40

I was thinking about the value of that vaccine. It’s going to be the most valuable thing on the planet, life.

So it makes sense to secure the vaccine plants with some special force. But humans, being human and all, even the security forces will be tempted to smuggle vaccine out. What billionaire wouldn’t pay a billion dollars for it? What gang wouldn’t try to go after it? EVERYONE is going to want that vaccine no matter what the price. All kinds of scenerios become possible when you start thinking it thru.

Newsie – at 10:41

As per the new “Flu Zone” security measures, DHS makes sense to me.

State Police and Nat’l Guard seem better suited for other assignments.

This may not be anything more than placing a vital national interest under the appropriate agency to secure it.

JWB – at 10:44

TPTB had better start thinking of ‘rings’ of defenses around these vaccine plants.

Newsie – at 10:50

JWB, rest assured. When it comes to something like this, they are.

NCPeabrainat 10:53

Has anyone been following the TV series Jericho? I wonder how close to reality the show is when the BF becomes part of our daily existence? I like watching the show because it gives me new insights into what I need to prep for when it really does happen. Anyone else doing the same thing?

Newsie – at 10:57

NCpeabrain

Many wikians watch Jericho. There is a thread to discuss it.

:-)

Argyll – at 10:57

My suggestion to DHS (their hotline tip on Critical Infrastructure) was to implement an “even/odd” day for distribution of a vaccine,etc. when one becomes readily available.

It might cut down on the number of people in one place at any given time. What do you all think? Any other ideas?

I also mentioned having a mentor set up for the elderly, those with special needs and children — especially those receiving meal assistance via public schools.

Argyll.

JWB – at 10:59

Argyll – at 10:57 readily available


Not in the cards. That’s the problem.

Jane – at 11:02

What’s a rioting mob going to do at a vaccine plant? The contents of the plant are delicate and expensive (and dangerous) and not easily replaced. The desperate people only want the end product, but a mob would ruin the entire plant. So, why don’t TPTB start facing reality, and do something useful to educate the people, consarn it! (Now I’m thinking of the carts bringing the rulers/aristocrats to the guillotine after the French revolution.)

Argyll – at 11:03

JWB — good point.

What steps can citizens take ( and this includes international) to protect themselves out in public?

Argyll.

Newsie – at 11:04

Jane - can you describe the reality which TPTB are not facing?

crfullmoon – at 11:05

Sure would be fewer unprepared people to be out rioting, if officials showed some leadership and delivered the bad news to the public now.

Perhaps, if they asked nicely, Dr.Webster, Dr.Osterholm, and Dr. Nabarro would do some PSAs….

Newsie – at 11:09

Crfullmoon - what bad news are you talking about?

Do you know something the rest of us don’t, or are you assuming TPTB know more and aren’t talking?

crfullmoon – at 11:14

TBTP would rather have status quo until pandemic breaks out, (and worse long-term impacts) rather than say, we may be about to have a pandemic year with a high fatality rate and we need to change to more sustainable lifestyles, for many reasons (and have a short-term economic/political shakeup) short-term staus quo to what purpose? The truth will out, eventually; what tptb knew and how many years ago they knew it.

Ignorant citizens, and, living beyond one’s means, with no priority for a healthy environment and populace, should not be points of national pride, nor public policy.

diana – at 11:20

I always seem to see things a little off center. My view of a vaccine making facility is not that things are on the edge, but that they are doing the right thing in good time. Should be just as well guarded as the White House.

JWB – at 11:22

Argyll send me an email at jwbatfluwiki at yahoo dot com

Hillbilly Bill – at 11:23

crfullmoon – at 11:14

I think the general populace will be sacrificed in an effort to keep the economy going as much as possible. Sheltering in Place will slam the brakes on, and TPTB have concluded that must be prevented at all costs. For the purpose of keeping wealth where it is in this country, people will be led like sheep to the slaughterhouse.

crfullmoon – at 11:24

Newsie, we know something the majority of the public doesn’t have on their radar at all; locally there are many noises about vaccine distribution, and no noises about community planning for coping without state and fed and mutual help for months - most have no idea the “wash your hands; don’t spread flu” messages is the pandemic warning they’re getting. They don’t know what a pandemic is, nor that it lasts longer than the two weeks they were told to stock up for, and they haven’t - doesn’t sound like a problem; and, they’ve had “stomach flu” before, so what?

some citizens here still think We must not be in any danger of pandemic, or our trusted government would be talking about it, and saying it was important; they wouldn’t say we’ll have months of warning if something like a pandemic were ever to occur, and be able to prepare then, if it weren’t so.

Argyll – at 11:25

I would say to TPTB that they should stick with the STARCC Principle. We need clear, concise directives in the form of Public Service Announcements by people we know and trust = now. This could maximize trust. Empower citizens and you build their trust + tell us how we can best protect ourselves = now.

Argyll.

Hillbilly Bill – at 11:27

The next important step for TPTB in my opinion, is to convince people to stay at home once they get ill. That way we can die at home and lessen the problem of dealing with the bodies, not to mention making the actual death toll easier to misreport.

crfullmoon – at 11:29

Hillbilly Bill, and then after a depopulating event, by the time pandemic waves burn out, tptb will never have any sort of an economy to shake their sticks at again in their lifetimes. Bunkered bureaucrats are useless; and too many other productive, experienced, people will have been lost to put “modern civilization” back together again. Have to start from the bottom of the “needs” triangle, up.

Newsie – at 11:32

CRfullmoon,

I don’t know of a single gov that doesn’t want the status quo mantained, esp in light of something (i.e. Super deadly panflu) that may not happen.

The US Govt has been warning citizens that a pandemic “could” happen. They are using the facts they have, which are very similar to the facts we have. The bottom line is that no one knows for sure when the next pandemic will arrive or how severe it will be.

The Govt established a public web site dedicated to pandemic flu, they sent Mike Leavitt to every state to participate in panflu seminars, etc. etc., etc.

Just because you believe we are going to be hit soon with a horrible flu does not mean it is true, or that the govt has been negligent in its efforts. Should they take ever citizen by the hand and walk them down to the local big box and force them to shop?

The govt is aware of a “potentially” deadly threat. They have explained to the citizens of this country how to prepare “in case” said threat materializes.

The govt’s job is not to make sure everyone preps to the level that fluwikians feel is the right level. They have made it abundantly clear that we need to prep. Most aren’t because that is the nature of humankind.

The suggestion that TPTB know a lot more about a deadly and immediate pandemic and are keeping quiet is, in my book, unfair and borders on conspiracy theory paranoia.

If you believe your spouse is cheating on you and you look hard enough, you’ll be convinced you see the signs everywhere - even if said spouse is actually 100% faithful.

There’s my two cents for the morning. :-)

Gary – at 11:33

I think Newsie at 10:41 is probably right on this particular point: TPTB are probably engaged in rather expected behavior in putting DHS in charge of the Sanofi vaccine plant security. However, the general feeling of the times with the State Dept. warnings and the world-wide hushing sound on the mention of bf and the “mystery disease” showing up in many places and various other hints and warnings gathered on this thread suggest something may, possibly, be afoot. Can TPTB know things and not tell us? I don’t consider that point debatable. Secrecy is very much standard operating proceedure. What to do? At the moment, probably nothing. Tomorrow? Who knows.

Hillbilly Bill – at 11:34

crfullmoon – at 11:29

That is only in a worse case scenario, which is more than likely what we will get. My theory is that they are hoping for a milder pandemic and they can at least keep the economic engine idling through the worst of it and get a short rebound period. Bureaucrats are expendible, I’m refering to those with the real wealth and power that are behind the scenes.

Tiger Lily – at 11:35

Argyll-at 10:57

“I also mentioned having a mentor set up for the elderly, those with special needs and children — especially those receiving meal assistance via public schools.”

I love those suggestions!

Green Mom and Crfullmoon were discussing conscription for mental health practitioners.

IMO during a pandemic direct service professionals will be of significant importance. In our society each individual has instrinsic value. We no longer have large groups of individuals who happen to be chronically mentally ill or chronically developmentally disabled living within an institutional setting.

Out of respect for each persons intrinsic value, those with special needs (and those who simply need support services) are living as our neighbors. Some independently in apartments and others living within a group home or CBRF (Certified Board and Room Facility) To cut to the chase, these types of supported living arrangements require many more staff. CBRF’s are for the most part 24 hour supervised living facilities. They have to be due to every day living needs.

Direct care service providers aren’t paid the best. They do the work that they do…not for financial reward, but out of love and compassion and the enrichment their clients bring to their lives.

Here’s the worry I have. If 40% of these very important workers are either sick or choose to stay home to care for their own families…Who will care for those who cannot care for themselves? If I had a family member in an assisted living facility I would be asking questions.

I bring this up because I care and I know many of you do too. Many of us probably know of someone we could mentor during a pandemic.

Thanks Argyll for bringing this very important issue to the discussion :)

Tiger Lily

TreasureIslandGalat 11:40

anyone hear anything more recently about those “internment centers” that Haliburton was supposedly building that could house 50,000 people each? where is that at?

Jane – at 11:45

Sec. HHS Leavitt’s meetings in every state should have been the starting point for spreading the message, but hardly any states carried it on. They chose to notify various levels of government of their responsibility to plan, but almost all their focus was on the functioning of goverment and other agencies (ie hospitals). Officials pretty much ignored citizen responsibility. Leavitt’s YOYO message wasn’t passed on to the public, for the most part. There should be a national notification, public service announcements, mailings, posters. They have failed hugely, IMO.

Nova – at 11:49

TIG: Yes, I’ve heard a lot about the billions the US government is paying to Haliburton for those internment centers, but cannot tell you the locations. Would love to know myself…

diana – at 11:50

I think if a sound truck with megaphones went up and down the streets warning some of the people, they would just call the authorities to complain. I don’t feel that anyone with any sense hasn’t seen something that should alert them to the possibilities. I certainly know and am not preparing to the nth degree. A. I can’t really afford it. B. I have never believed we will get to the third world level., and C. I’m really not that capable mechanically or technically. I know almost as much as the rest of you, but I’m not getting a generator, or digging a well, or prepping much more than I have. I’m not ignorant, I’m not a fool, I just won’t do it. And a lot of us won’t . People here who have gone out of their way to warn others know this. I wonder what, if any, response happened in Hong Kong after the warning. As far as the culling out ? We are destroying this planet. There’s an section of the Pacific ocean twice as big as Texas that is nothing but plastic waste. Wrong thing to say here, and If I’ll be one of the culled out should it really get to a frontier life, so be it. If people in The worst spots in the worlds for mayhem manage to keep hold of their basic humanity and can hold things together however tenuously, so can we.I find hope in that Vaccine facility, if we are on the cusp, at least they are doing something very sound and rational.Do whatever you feel needed, god bless you and keep you all safe, but in the end, I might survive just as well. It’s a crap shoot, and I’m a gambler in life.I’m keeping my eyes on the planetary influences. Something really unusual happend up there please tell me.

Newsie – at 11:52

Jane -

I agree with you that more can always be done. There is no question.

Let me pose this question. Should TBTB also be telling citizens to stockpiling Potassium Iodine tables, high-end gas masks, Cipro, Atropine, etc, etc, etc in case of a terrorist attack? Should we all carry rad detectors and all hazzard radios…? Should (@(! Doing more to “educate” us and push us into preparing for these kinds of potential attacks?

David – at 11:58

On a totally different subject, how many think there is more to the Chinese dog cull that rabies??? http://tinyurl.com/gl8yf

diana – at 12:03

I have been keeping my eye on that for months, since it began. Why would it be needed, if indeed dogs have been vaccinated? I spoke to someone dressed in a cat costume Sat. who was collecting for animals. She said that the companies are also outsourcing animal testing to China since there are no laws on the books there. She shuddered as she mentioned it.If I were a pet owner, I too would euthanize my animal rather than having it clubbed to death.

TreasureIslandGalat 12:04

David, check your dates… that story was from 3 1/2+ months ago. We discussed it here in great detail. You should be abel to look up the old discussions about it… as well as the pig diseases/culls in China that may or may not have been related.

careful for NewsNow, it “recycles” stories sometimes that are very old and pass them off as new news. something wrong with their automated system I think.

crfullmoon – at 12:04

They have ‘not explained to the citizens of this country how to prepare “in case” said threat materializes.

We’d be better off having elections by just making a government website with each candidate and their positions, and then, just barely telling the public, or certainly not telling all of them, that the website existed. Have private monthly meetings about the candidates, but not bother telling the public, just tell them who wins after the election is over. A lot less harm than how the pandemic alert period we are now in is being managed.

We (most of us anyway) prepare against low-probability but high-impact events all the time, and I do not think “when not if” puts pandemic in the low-probability category anymore. H5N1 is not a hypothetical example for discussion purposes. Seems to be more likely and unavoidable than any man-made, terrorist, threat; Nature is just letting the virus roll its dice. (They can’t even tell us where all the dice are at this point, let alone read them.)

Sure, a pressurizing volcano might just not blow, or a leaking dam might just somehow plug itself back up rather than burst, (and if the worst did happen, others would come to survivors’ aid), but, we don’t need to go betting generations of lives that an overdue deadly influenza pandemic might not happen. Certainly are other dangerous contagious diseases out there, too; we need better health infrastructure and better public education anyway.

For some reason, the public got told a zillion times about voting on election day, even though, in the US, it is always the first Tues. in Nov. and, even comes printed on our calendars. Many did not hear Leavitt the first time, and have not had one recorded phone call from him about not preparing being “tragically wrong” (but we sure got several different politicians, a couple times each, about candidates and election day).

(off the little soapbox in search of a lunchbox)

diana – at 12:05

The government is so poor they can’t afford a bullet to the brain?

diana – at 12:06

The last notice on the dogs was I think CBS News on November 7th.

Canadian – at 12:19

Something is definitly going on behind our backs. All medical personel were warned a week ago ( in this area) about BF. They already knew about BF before, but something new is on the horizen. I know one shouldnt go by feelings alone, but I just feel it in my bones.

David – at 12:22

My bad. I heard a new report this weekend, did a quick google search and didn’t check the date on the link. Check out this more current article on “new restrictions that limit households to one dog and ban larger breeds. Police in recent days have gone through city neighborhoods, seizing unregistered dogs and beating some of them to death, witnesses said.” http://tinyurl.com/y6vyho CBS NEWS - Nov 11

David – at 12:23

My bad. I heard a new report this weekend, did a quick google search and didn’t check the date on the link. Check out this more current article on “new restrictions that limit households to one dog and ban larger breeds. Police in recent days have gone through city neighborhoods, seizing unregistered dogs and beating some of them to death, witnesses said.” http://tinyurl.com/y6vyho CBS NEWS - Nov 11

I will now crawl back into my hole… ;-)

TreasureIslandGalat 12:26

the dog rabies thing has been a big an ongoign problem in China, as well as India and Pakistan (for years, it comes & goes in cycles). we weterners have to understand that the majority of dogs there are “street dogs” and are barely, if at all, domesticated. they are often not raised in families and just eek out a survival living off of scraps and trash. these are the dogs they are tryign to irradicate, just liek the USA tries to “dispose of” millions of feral cats in our cities.

some people (few) keep dogs as westerners do, but most do not. most “kept dogs” are kept for food or security (and often ultimately for food or fighting/entertainment) It sounds cruel to us, but this is not our culture to judge.

on the other hand, it is something we should continue to watch and be aware of, especially if the “rabies” starts presenting with unfamiliar symptom patterns. after the pig diseases combined with the rabies and a few other “mystery diseases”, it raised all of our awareness. but sometimes, and especially with repeated history instances, we need to first assume the most probable/likely truth is what is really happening, and not the “big thing” we all dread.

Are we there yet – at 12:32

CRfullmoon:

“We (most of us anyway) prepare against low-probability but high-impact events all the time, and I do not think “when not if” puts pandemic in the low-probability category anymore.”

You are correct about a pandemic not being in the low-probability category. We know they come about 3 every 100 years, so it has always been when not if. You are not correct, though, that it will be a high-impact event along the lines of events we prepare against “all the time.”

No one knows how mild or severe our next pandemic will be.

“[H5N1] Seems to be more likely and unavoidable than any man-made, terrorist, threat…” If you mean more likely that it will go sustainable H2H than a man made terrorist attack, I would say you are comparing apples to oranges.

Also, you state, “…we don’t need to go betting generations of lives that an overdue deadly influenza pandemic might not happen.”

A “deadly” influenza pandemic is not “overdue.” You can argue that a pandemic (as regularly irregular as they are) is overdue and that statement would make sense. You do not know that a “deadly” one is overdue and that qualifier flaws your argument.

It also seems to impact your feelings about the powers that be. You are obviously frustrated as you see a “deadly” pandemic as not only overdue, but as a certainty and therefore believe the powers that be are not doing enough.

I think this is where a lot of confusion happens between posters here. Most Americans will not budge to get prepped until a pandemic has been declared and its lethality must be such that it scares people into actions to save their own lives. I agree with Newsie in this respect if this is what he/she was referring to when discussing humankind/human nature.

For right now, I cannot see why the govt (at least here in teh USA) should be doing any more than it has been. I think the SIP requirements should be raised, but it won’t impact the majority of people.

Where do we draw the line with how hard the government should encourage its citizens to do things? I’m a smart person. I heard and heeded the Panflu warnings. I know others are not as smart, but I believe the govt can’t pour tons of money and man hours into pushing people who don’t want to be pushed to prep for an event that when it happens, may not be that bad. Poeple stay in hurricane zones all the time when a storm is on its way. We live in a society where it is your right to be an idiot. /8-)

JWB – at 12:55

I just freaked out my friend at Sanofi with an email.

I told her that maybe the new security has not one mission but two:

1) Keep people out.

2) Keep people in.

Average Concerned Mom – at 13:00

Canadian at 12:19

Do share more about that rumor — did you receive this bird flu warning yourself, or did you hear that others were told something? Do you know what they were told?

OKbirdwatcherat 13:07

Hillbilly Bill at 11:23 -

I think you’ve got it about right - sad to say.

OKbirdwatcherat 13:11

Are we there yet at 12:32 -

“We live in a society where it is your right to be an idiot.”

And plenty seem to be exercising that right, huh?

Dr Dave – at 13:16

JWB,

Over the past several months I have compiled a list of what I call “arrows”. You know, little events or reports that tend to indicate a trend or a general direction. Your news is another arrow pointing in the same direction as the others, and it’s keeping my PPF way high.

Thanks for the post.

Northstar – at 13:22

Don’t crawl back into your hole, David, whoever you are — your contributions are valid. There are people new here who haven’t seen the old reports on the Chinese dog eradication program. And yes, there were new rules enacted and eradications recently, too.

I agree for the most part with Treasure Island Girl, but I remember from the first big eradication program not just feral dogs were being killed… they were entering people’s homes and taking pets, and luring out people’s hidden dogs by yelling and beating on things and getting them to bark. This was soon followed by a publication that confirmed the first H5N1 infection in *dogs* which I remember as big news back then.

Yes, rabies is a big problem in China; yes, this is probably an attempt to control rabies by cutting down on the number of street dogs; but it could also be used to control the transmission of dog-to-human H5N1 if it is happening — as some suspect is happening in Indonesia.

DemFromCTat 13:24

dr dave

we hope to have the .pdf on the ftp by tomorrow. I will then link it to this page.

JWB – at 13:26

Dr Dave – at 13:16

You’re welcome. The GSK news report was a greenlight to go ahead and post. That news report is significant IMHO. An arrow.

observer – at 13:41

JWB is that Fed DHS or PA DHS?

Are we there yet – at 13:45

JWB & Others -

You may this interesting:

GSK predicts unrest if bird-flu mutates By Katherine Griffiths, City Correspondent Last Updated: 11:16pm GMT 12/11/2006

Profile: Visionary in the pursuit of excellence Several governments around the world have promised to send in the army to protect GlaxoSmithKline manufacturing plants that produce bird flu vaccine should a pandemic break out, the drug maker’s chief executive, Jean-Pierre Garnier, has said.

“People don’t realise the disorder which comes from a scary event such as a true pandemic. It is not going to be the time to line up to your friendly pharmacist because there will be hundreds of people there. There will be panic episodes,” Mr Garnier said.

http://tinyurl.com/sup8l

Are we there yet – at 13:45

Whoops “may find” this interesting darn it!

JWB – at 13:48

observer – at 13:41

Good question. I’ll be talking to my friend on Wednesday.

Dr Dave – at 13:49

DemFromCT,

Thanks for the notification.

crfullmoon – at 13:50

Our systems are already not enough to meet needs; we cannot take the surge of any kind of pandemic.

The government can’t protect me against a pandemic,

and they can’t protect me against the people around me, who at this point, would be an equal, and more aggressive, threat.

So, they should be honest try and get as many people as prepared as possible. It would make us in better shape as a nation anyway; to be more self-sufficient on all levels.

Perhaps I was misunderstood; …”that it will be a high-impact event along the lines of events we prepare against “all the time.” Pandemic would be far worse than -incomparably over the line, of low-risk high-impact events the government makes us buy insurance against (house, car, flood, health insurance), and, many of us wear our seat buckles all the time we are on the road in a car, despite some actuary tables somewhere for our age, location, time of day and date, make of car probably being able to give estimates of the chances of us being in an accident at all, let alone killed or permanently injured by not wearing a seat belt. This is normal and does not “cause panic”. Political expediency is the main reason “terrorism” is getting hyped daily to the public, and, why “pandemic influenza” is getting hushed up.

If it is the wrong choice to not tell the public what Dr.Nabarro and Dr.Osterholm, and Dr.Webster feel about pandemic preparedness, it is the public and their loved ones that will suffer real consequences; an, “Oops, we hoped it wouldn’t happen or would be manageably mild”, just isn’t going to be sufficient.

Canadian – at 13:52

average concerned mom,,,I wish I knew what it is, but cannot find out-although supposed to be bad news AI, its all the buzz here. Sorry dont have more info at this time. I will however put a posting on fluiki as soon as info becomes available. : (

anonymous – at 13:56

Canadian – at 13:52

Which city/province are you from?

Pixie – at 13:58

crfullmoon – at 13:50: Pandemic would be far worse than -incomparably over the line, of low-risk high-impact events the government makes us buy insurance against (house, car, flood, health insurance)

That’s a really good line and I’m goona steal it if ya don’t mind, crfullmoon, for a locally-oriented powerpoint slide.

Canadian – at 13:58

Nova Scotia

Are we there yet – at 14:03

CRfullmoon:

“Pandemic would be far worse than -incomparably over the line, of low-risk high-impact events the government makes us buy insurance against…”

You still seem to assume that a pandemic will be highly lethal. I think you need to qualify how you are using the word “pandemic.” The word itself does not inherently mean “highly lethal.”

Are we there yet – at 14:09

Whoops - my post got cut in half. Sorry about that.

CRfullmoon:

You also say, “they should be honest try and get as many people as prepared as possible…”

How do you know they are being dishonest? Mike Leavitt was very clear in his briefings and on his road show. Is it that TBTB are being dishonest, or are you upset that you are not seeing/hearing the message repeated often enough?

TBTB have no crystal ball. They don’t know when the next pandemic will hit or if it will be severe or not. They also do not know when the next terrorist attack will happen and if it will be severe or not… Just because you believe one to be more likely and more deadly than another doesn’t make it so.

Leo7 – at 14:41

No one in their right mind will isolate in a building surrounded by armed people—currently the only class of people experiencing this weird feeling is prisoners. The army isn’t going to guard a GSK plant. They will have their hands full with the grid, remember? And participating in the evacuations, remember? And keeping the food moving, remember? The national guards will be moved to the big cities to support the Mayors.

Vaccine workers or health care workers aren’t going to work under an armed guard because it is scary. It’s not comforting-especially when you can’t talk to these people. They have a group paranoia about the civvies. The potential for abuse is high particulary when you don’t know the time frame of the event. Six months? Would you? Without knowing exactly for how long? Without knowing what’s happening to your family? Without guarantees they won’t shoot you when you decide to leave cause you just can’t take it anymore? And what type of guarantee would reassure you?

The mercenary companies are probably salivating hoping to get a great deal at guarding vaccine plants and famous hospitals like Mayo. These people dress up like they’re military and carry enough ammo to make Rambo look like he’s empty. Those vaccine plant workers will feel like they’re in an internment camp, and that’s no joke. They will have to elect a civilian group from within the vaccine group to communicate with them. They will have to send petitions up a chain of command to fix the toilets. If mercenary groups show up-better run or get used to feeling like a common prisoner.

diana – at 14:56

I once heard a radio program where a woman who was supposedly a security guard said something like this. “They pay me enough to wear a uniform and badge and carry a gun, but they don’t pay me enough to risk my life. Any trouble, and I’m out of there.” This was not a policewoman. It is one of those things you tend to remember.

Grace RN – at 15:04

Pixie – at 13:58 crfullmoon – at 13:50:

“Pandemic would be far worse than -incomparably over the line, of low-risk high-impact events the government makes us buy insurance against (house, car, flood, health insurance)…”

“That’s a really good line and I’m goona steal it if ya don’t mind, crfullmoon, for a locally-oriented powerpoint slide.”

Oh, me too ie would like to steal that line.

Pixie-have you finished your power point? If so can you share- I’ve been using our county’s slide show for our presentations. would lik to look at other town’s offerings

puub at comcast dot net

JWB – at 15:20

Leo7 – at 14:41

I agree. When this becomes ‘real’ the entire world will under go a massive paradigm shift. (Including us). My friend is thinking of quitting next week. She just doesn’t want to be at the epicenter. Granted she’ld be one of the first inline to get the vaccine, she rather be SIP.

DennisCat 15:29

JWB – at 15:20 “first inline to get the vaccine”

hopefully TBTB will not have people waiting in a line and spreading the flu. It would be much better to have “patches” that could be mailed or picked up in a drive thru.

Argyll – at 15:34

I hope we get some clear social distancing guidelines for the public soon. We need them :) I just left a court required meeting, “get your new driver license” with my child. We were all jammed packed like sardines into the courtroom. (Not to mention the coughers in the room). And, many were coughing into their hands.

To top it off, the Judge shook every new driver’s hand. I couldn’t believe it! There was a total absence of any sense of healthy habits.

It would be awesome to see some, “Healthy Habits PSA’s” soon.

Argyll.

AnnieBat 15:39

Just my ‘tuppence’ worth on this purported increased preparation and ‘cover-ups’.

One: we are ahead of most in our awareness of what is going on - this Wiki has so many people watching for the slightest hiccup or change of events that nothing is going to sneak by us - which is good

Two: this preparation may well be ‘business as usual’ in following the advice from health agencies and WHO on getting prepared. Remember recently WHO put a great effort into saying that most countries were still under-prepared for a pandemic event.

Three: if all these agencies know something we don’t (which I doubt - see one above) then why are exercises for testing preparation still being planned for next year? If it was that ‘urgent’ would they not be planning, building, testing in almost unison?

Four: if GSK came out now and said “avoid the rush - get all your meds and preps now” how many would do anything? Also, GSK could be accused of scaremongering and profiteering. They know human nature (as do we) so protection of their sites has to be a genuine threat consideration.

Five: When the USA put out their notice to their people in Hong Kong to say prepare to SIP for 3 months, the reaction on this site was “why are they saying this - oooh” when it could have easily been - “hurrah, TPTB are being sensible” - we could have been responsible for ‘scaring off’ the very people we want making such statements.

Okay, so that was 5 cent’s worth - just trying to give an alternative perspective on what may (or may not) be happening ;-)

JWB – at 15:50

I just came up with a twisted prediction.

The panflu arrives. Certian HCW are to receive the vaccine. One of them puts their ‘certified vaccination eligibility notice’ up for sale on ebay.

anotherAnon – at 16:17

I don’t believe there is any “cover up”.

Just different departments within the government getting into alignment as to the core message.

Unfortunately they chose the LOWEST COMMON DENOMINATOR as that core message, instead of the correct core message for the risk.

crfullmoon – at 16:26

My reaction to the HK/Tunis memo was, so, now tell mainland US to prepare for “extended” coping at home; recommend 12 weeks prep here, too.

“HHS Doctrine for a Pandemic Influenza Response

HHS will be guided by the following principles in initiating and directing its response activities:

In advance of an influenza pandemic, HHS will work with federal, state, and local government partners and the private sector to coordinate pandemic influenza preparedness activities and to achieve interoperable response capabilities.

1 In advance of an influenza pandemic, HHS will encourage all Americans to be active partners in preparing their states, local communities, workplaces, and homes for pandemic influenza and will emphasize that a pandemic will require Americans to make difficult choices. An informed and responsive public is essential to minimizing the health effects of a pandemic and the resulting consequences to society.”

Galt – at 16:32

Grace RN @ 15:04 There are several really good powerpoint presentations on the Ft. Wayne County flu site. Really well done and easy to follow for a public pres. You might want to look at those too. I think that the address is something like www.fighttheflu.org

Green Mom – at 16:38

DR. Dave- you have been very generous in sharing your 6 months survival plan, so I hate to ask, but I’m going to anyway-would you mind posting some of your “arrows” that you refered to earlier? I would be very interested in seeing those. Thanks

leadbelly – at 16:47

JWB @ 9:48 posted “…..Now this is where it gets interesting to me. She says this week DHS is coming in to completely take over security. That new restrictions are going to be implemented. She thought that it was unusual because she thinks it already is very secure.”

If the DHS is taking over security it is to prevent acts of terrorism at the facility. Think of how vulnerable we will be to terrorists during a pandemic. I don’t see masses of people storming the vaccine plants. People are going to be too scared of contracting this virus and worried about basic survival needs such as food and water.

JWB – at 17:07

leadbelly – at 16:47

My friend who works there told me that the state police and national guard have been there since 9/11, for fear of a terrorist attack. Now a different force is going to be in place.

don’t see masses of people storming the vaccine plants. People are going to be too scared of contracting this virus and worried about basic survival needs such as food and water.

If you are vaccinated, you can go and do whatever you please. Vaccination will be the “Get out of Hell card”. True you still need food and water, but it sure would make getting the basics at lot easier.

Average Concerned Mom – at 17:08

Grace/Pixie/crfullmoon

re:“Pandemic would be far worse than -incomparably over the line, of low-risk high-impact events the government makes us buy insurance against (house, car, flood, health insurance)…”

“That’s a really good line and I’m goona steal it if ya don’t mind, crfullmoon, for a locally-oriented powerpoint slide.”

Just in case you do want to use this line, I’d tweak it a bit — sorry — but at least in Maryland the government doesn’t make you buy fire or flood insurance for your house (the mortgage company does that) or for damage to YOUR car (you have to get collision for damage to the other guy’s car though) or for your own health — that is, the government doesn’t require you to have insurance to protect yourself at all. However such insurance is a really great and prudent idea, so I think the analogy is a fine one. Just don’t want you to use it and get caught by some wise guy comment. (-:

SusanAat 17:17

For those who wanted to know about the “Camps” around the country TPTB have set up, google “REX 84″ FEMA concentration camps.

blackbird – at 17:25

Comment. Actually two comments:

1) What’s a rioting mob going to do at a vaccine plant? The contents of the plant are delicate and expensive (and dangerous) and not easily replaced.

Isn’t a mob acting rationally an oxymoron? There would be a lot of anger, frustration and fear in a serious pandemic. It could vent anyplace. I expect also to see individuals going “above and beyone” — it will bring out both the best and worst in people.

2) If you are vaccinated, you can go and do whatever you please.

It’s my understanding that the current flu vaccine doesn’t “guarantee” you don’t get the flu. If that is true, then I don’t see any reason to believe that a new (to-be-developed) vaccine will provide 100% immunity to everyone. People who know about this, please chime in with actual data on this subject. I am not a HC provider nor a scientist, and I don’t play one on TV or the internet. :-)

JWB – at 17:34

blackbird – at 17:25

Once the panflu starts, you’ve got the strain. True it takes time to make it, but if people know that panflu vaccine is made at a certain place, they are going to try to get it.

Read http://tinyurl.com/sup8l .

This is the CEO of GSK talking about the need for armies to guard the plants. This isn’t my opinion.

Are we there yet – at 17:38

JWB – at 17:07

“My friend who works there told me that the state police and national guard have been there since 9/11, for fear of a terrorist attack. Now a different force is going to be in place.”

The DHS angle makes even more sense now.

Leo7 – at 14:41

“No one in their right mind will isolate in a building surrounded by armed people… The army isn’t going to guard a GSK plant.”

You’re joking, right? : )

PeskyAnonat 17:48

Blackwater and some other sub-contractors have received the contracts to guard essential infrastructure in the USA, including VAX plants.

The so-called “mercenaries” described here earlier on the wiki.

Most are actually former US or British military who still hold their security clearances.

blackbird – at 17:59

JWB – at 17:34

My comments are in plain text. The part in italics was written by others, and was what I was commenting on.

I do not question that there might be violence. I was commenting on someone else’s quote that implied that it is not rational for a mob to attack the plan. My comment is: why would a rioting mob behave rationally.

JWB – at 18:08

blackbird – at 17:59

Oh. Sorry about that.

On a related note:

If only 1/2 of 1% of the worlds population goes for the vaccine plants, that 30 million people that will try to get to them. (If I did my math right). Yes, I think we will need armies to protect them.

AnnieBat 18:10

Could it be that security is being stepped up at these locations because, in order to create the vaccine, live virus will be stored there and needs protection ..

2beans – at 18:13

SusanA - at 17:17

It’s my understanding that the Halliburton KBR contracts to build these facilities are on a contingency basis only. From what I’ve read, they are to house illegal aliens in the event of a “cross-border event” (I assume some kind of migrational surge from Mexico due to natural disaster, or even US citizens in another Katrina). I’m not thinking as darkly as you are - for the moment. Sad to say, but if our medical resources can’t take care of a domestic surge, how on earth could they care for Mexico as well?

JWB – at 18:14

AnnieB – at 18:10

Good point.

blackbird – at 18:18

JWB - NP. Looking back, it’s not clear which part was my comment. Thx for taking the time to reply :-)

Jane – at 18:40

Mobs are not rational, so TPTB should forestall formation of mobs by getting the word out so people don’t get blindsided by a pandemic. WE know there won’t be a vaccine formulated until about 6 months after the pandemic form of the virus shows up. Then more months to make some (and not enough for all, either). If people are hungry after week 3 or 4, they’ll be angry and scared, and any rumor of vax just makes the vax plant a focus. Finding food would come first, but if there isn’t any, what the H*** do TPTB expect from the populace? (inner voice starting to screech here)

Also, I don’t lump Michael Leavitt in with TPTB that I wish would do more to educate the citizenry.

urdar-Norway – at 19:02

planning for protection of essential facilities are just common sense, our national pandemic plan also plans for military guidence. Dont overestimate the signal given. They are doing their job. At least they do more than just writing it on a paper, like they do here.. As far as I know not a single part of our plan has resulted in a any concrete action here in Norway.. (exept the tamiflu stockpile, who is on a “secret place”)

I think our byrocrats are hoping this H5N1 problem will disapear by it self..

Pixie – at 20:37

Jane – at 18:40 WE know there won’t be a vaccine formulated until about 6 months after the pandemic form of the virus shows up.

The scary thing is that people who should know better now, people in public health leadership positions at the local level, believe that there will, of course, be a quick and effective vaccine. So, it is inevitable that the average person will believe this too, and rational appeals will have even less luck in reaching the average person than the public health guys who are so in denial now.

Pixie – at 20:54

GraceRN: Sure, you and anyone else interested can have a copy of my powerpoint slides when I get them done. It may be a couple of weeks, though. And GraceRN, whenever I write anything I am keeping in mind your specific advice to stick to single syllable words whenever possible. ;-)

ACM: Thanks for the heads up on the insurance details. Yes, I’ll use the broader context on the subject of “insurance.” What I would like to do is ask the people in the room for a show of hands as to how many have mortgage insurance, property insurance, auto insurance, fire insurance, health insurance…etc. It’s always a nice thing to get one’s audience personally involved. :-) I expect that I’ll hear the objection “but I don’t believe that a pandemic will be coming and that it will affect me.” Then I’ll ask for a show of hands for the people who believe the odds are good that their house will burn down, vs. those that have insurance for that eventuality.

I find the hardest “objection” (excuse, really), to overcome is the one of disbelief in a pandemic. It’s a lot more like arguing religion with someone than science. I would like to move towards pointing out that people often don’t “believe” that some risk will affect them individually, but will in robot-like fashion, prepare for and insure against it anyway. I’ll take robots at this point, that would be fine.

Lisa the GP – at 22:08

I was just at a continuing medical education conference for Emergency Physicians last week. There was no mention of H5N1 at the conference.

I don’t think there’s anything special brewing.

cottontop – at 22:16

susanA @17:17

That was certainly sobering information. And even more sobering, is that Ft. Drum has two compounds: REX 84 detention camp and FEMA detention facility. As I am only 20 minutes away from Drum. Albany, Otisville, and Buffalo have the FEMA detention facilites.

I’m just wondering if a panflu would allow these excutive orders to be instituted. Reading the orders, it really is extreme, and carefully planned out. As devestating as `1918 was, I don’t recall any such excetive orders, or orders to that extreme be instituted. I sounds to me that people, business people and government at all levels, tried to keep the economy going, and if I am correct, they did. These articles/books are not indicating that the economic world of 1918 came to a standstill. Perhaps I am wrong, and have missed something, and if so, please someone correct me. Those excutive orders sounds like the most extreme thing would have to happen, something worse than a pandemic, before it became martial law.

DemFromCTat 22:24

Mobs are not rational

I at first read that as ‘mods are not rational’. ;-)

Here’s a good video by upmc for viewing at youtube.

link

It’s ~ 8 minutes long.

cottontop – at 22:38

DemFromCt-

LOL-so did I. had to read it three times. Thinking who said the mods are not rational? he wants me to watch an 8 minute youtube on the mods not being rational? could not help but laugh.

JWB – at 22:43

Lisa the GP – at 22:08

Could you elaborate?

It’s late here and I gotta go to dreamworld. So I’ll probably respond to your post tomorrow.

Thanx.

DemFromCTat 22:52

Pixie – at 20:54

That’s part of the reason I posted the video. It’s a nice summary of 1918.

Okieman – at 23:02

Dem, do you remember when the Rumours thread was one of the threads which had the least posts? (Earlier this year.) I kinda miss those good old days;-)

On the fence and leaning – at 23:15

Dem: Thanks for the video link. Lots of info.

Okieman: I miss the ‘middle’ old days with the reports of unusual military activity and some of the ‘dead birds in my yard’ posts. Those were such fun.

14 November 2006

Mary in Hawaii – at 00:05

Are we there yet – at 12:32 and so on.

You repeatedly bring up the fact that we don’t know this flu - if it even becomes a pandemic - will be “severe”, and use this fact to defend the government for not having pushed citizens more to prepare. However WHO says it is as likely as not that H5N1 will remain as lethal as it currently is (over 60%)even after mutating to a form that is H2H. That’s 50–50 chance it could take out over a billion people. If you were a betting man, would you say “hit me,” or fold on those odds?

I prefer we err on the side of caution. We need to tell tptb to stop with the fallacy that humans are a bunch of reactive mindless fools who will - at a serious mention of bird flu preparedness - all suddenly quit their jobs and run for their hidey-holes. That’s a pile of bs that tptb use to justify and rationalize their plan not to tell anyone until the very last second, so they can eke all the spending power out of them they can before tshtf. First of all, most people cannot afford to miss work more than a couple of days, so no one’s going to panic and head for the hills. No, they’re going to buy food. Instead of TVs.

Let’s get real. First of all, despite the fact that there have been lots of committees and subcommittees formed at all the various levels of government to “study” the problem and “plan” what to do, nothing real is being done. REAL means getting the public well informed and alerted and told what to buy and how much and when. Like now. It means giving special coupons or whatever to those at lower income levels so that they can afford to buy these necessities. Like now. It is simply not true that, by putting together afew websites with advice, the government is making any kind of real effort to inform and enforce SIP preparedness in the general public. What percent of the general public would specifically go to those websites to see if they should prepare? Like, us? That’s it…The already over informed. Yet WHO and even our own government experts have been saying for some time now that the only really effective way to mitigate a pandemic is social distancing…sort of like the only really effective birth control. And I disagree with your rationale that “people have the right to be idiots.” First, they’re not idiots, they’re uniformed and no one is making a real effort to inform them. And when their lack of preparedness may lead them to my back door to steal what I have socked away, or may cause them to get infected and pass the virus on when they run out to Wally World to stock up after the alert is raised to 5 or 6, no they have no such right. We have a social responsibility to prepare, not just an individual one. And the government’s first obligation should be to the health, welfare and safety of its individual citizens, not to the pocketbooks of the corporate giants who are afraid their profit margin might drop if people buy rice and beans instead of new cars and tvs.

Economist – at 00:20

cottontop – at 22:16

I’m just wondering if a panflu would allow these excutive orders to be instituted. Reading the orders, it really is extreme, and carefully planned out. As devestating as `1918 was, I don’t recall any such excetive orders, or orders to that extreme be instituted. I sounds to me that people, business people and government at all levels, tried to keep the economy going, and if I am correct, they did. These articles/books are not indicating that the economic world of 1918 came to a standstill.


The economic world of 1918 and the economic world of 2006 are about as opposite as one could imagine as a contrast.

Economics 2006 are, without comparison, 1000X more fragile than 1918.

The “Roaring 20′s” followed the 1918 pandemic, so no, the economy didn’t come to a standstill.

Of course we now have trillion $$$ debts owed to China that require a Billion $$$ a day in foreign capital investment just to keep the US afloat, derivatives, and all manner of book cooking.

Lisa the GP – at 00:55

JWB, there is nothing to elaborate. All US physicians are required to take a certain amount of continuing education each year so that their practice skills do not go out of date. There are a variety of courses that meet these requirements.

This was a multi-day course in the latest information for ER physicians. There was no mention of H5N1. I asked the organizers about that; they said they rotate topics each year since many physicians come to the same conference every year, and they ‘did’ bird flu last year.

As this course was offered by a major academic medical center, chock full of insiders to all kinds of medical-political information, I think that they would have included an H5N1 unit again if they felt that there was any urgency to the problem. In conversation it was clear that the organizers were well-informed and that this absence of a bird flu segment was a decision based on knowledge and not an oversight based in ignorance.

Klatu – at 01:01

Lisa the GP – at 00:55 wrote:

“it was clear that the organizers were well-informed and that this absence of a bird flu segment was a decision based on knowledge and not an oversight based in ignorance.”


‘’‘Cold hearted orb that rules the night, Removes the colours from our sight, Red is gray and yellow white, But we decide which is right. And which is an illusion?’‘’

Days Of Future Passed, 1967 The Moody Blues

With the London Festival Orchestra Conducted by: Peter Knight

enza – at 01:15

“it was clear that the organizers were well-informed and that this absence of a bird flu segment was a decision based on knowledge and not an oversight based in ignorance.”

UNbelievable.

Clawdia – at 01:44

I think so too, enza.

Lisa the GP – at 01:52

Enza, do you disbelieve my reporting of the conference, or their decision not to include bird flu as a topic?

Klatu – at 01:55

“The lady doth protest too much, methinks.”

—From Hamlet (III, ii, 239)

Lisa the GP – at 02:05

Klatu, personal attacks add nothing to the wiki. Reply on topic or not at all.

Lisa the GP – at 02:26

News reports for November 14 contained this article:

China expert urges cooperation on bird flu

What caught my eye in this was the phrase “in the coming days”. To my mind, spoken by a native english speaker, that phrase would imply an expected timeframe for the described event that is on the order of days, not weeks or months. But this report is via translation; there is no way to know how the undertone in English compares to any undertone in Chinese.

As translated this looks a bit like the Chinese are drawing a line in the sand regarding Hong Kong research—either they must cooperate with China or be shut out of access to virus, like the rest of the world.

AnnieBat 03:39

The use of the phrase “in coming days” is like saying “see you anon” - I will see you, I am just not sure when ..

A – at 03:49

Lisa the GP-2:26

“China and Hong Kong are one family and they may be facing a dangerous co-explosion of the common flu and avian flu in coming days…”

As a singular reference not significant, but as referenced with the beginning of the common flu season, interesting…

JWB – at 07:24

Lisa the GP – at 00:55

Thanks.

SIDE SCROLL – at 07:44
Dr Dave – at 08:03

Lisa the GP,

Ominous quotes like these are very useful. I like to share them with non-prepping family, friends, neighbors, and colleagues in my continuing effort to motivate them. If the time-line that is implied by “coming days” seems especially ominous, so much the better.

anonymous – at 08:34

There shold be a message on here from pogge at 8:14 what happened to it?

Edna Mode – at 08:38

Lisa the GP – at 00:55

Lisa, Did you attend the conference out of curiosity or are you an ER doc? Primary care? I’d be curious to know how/if you raise pandemic education topics with your patients, what you say to them, and what their reactions are/have been so far. I imagine if you’re working in the ER the opportunity doesn’t present itself very often. However, primary care docs, IMHO, have a plumb opportunity to educate patients.

Are we there yet – at 08:46

Lisa the GP

Great posts, thank you.

It borders on sad how many people are so sure that a highly lethal pandemic flu is just around the corner that when you present a potential indicator that TPTB are not hiding anything and that there isn’t a great conspiracy ongoing that people get upset and attack you.

pogge – at 09:02

There shold be a message on here from pogge at 8:14 what happened to it?

I didn’t post. I fixed the sidescroll.

Okidokie – at 09:22

whats in a flu shot funny

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=2163175142473074044

TRay75at 10:13

Thought you guys would find this interesting.

I’ve shared that I am job hunting and targeting the VA area for project management positions. In my daily email notice this weekend I came across a spot that caught my eye. This position fits many of the plans I have read in the past year, but now there is open recruiting going on and few people have even heard of the title. The pay is not even equal to the average for a Project Manager in the area, which makes me wonder what the job actually entails.

From CareerBuilder - Nov-13 Continuity of Operations Specialist Company: JHT Incorporated Location: US-VA-Arlington Base Pay: $54,000.00 /Year Employee Type: Full-Time Employee Industry: Government - Civil Service Military Security Manages Others: no Job Type: Strategy - Planning Management Government Req’d Education: Not Specified Req’d Experience: More than 5 Years Req’d Travel: Not Specified Relocation Covered: No Posted Date: 11/13/2006

DESCRIPTION

JHT, a government contractor, is hiring a Continuity of Operations (COOP) Specialist to provide professional project management skills to support emergency, anti-terrorism, and business continuity capabilities in accordance with Government regulations. Job duties will include but are not limited to:

Develop & maintain COOP plans and procedures in accordance with Federal Preparedness Circular 65.

Conduct COOP training, planning and exercises.

Manage plans and procedures for Alternate Operating Facilities.

Develop related website content.

REQUIREMENTS 5 years related experience in federal government/DoD emergency and anti-terrorism project management experience. Bachelors degree desired.

Applicants selected will be subject to a government security investigation and must meet eligibility requirements for access to classified information. U.S. Citizenship required.

So at least a few firms are starting to contract in their experts.

crfullmoon – at 10:41

Read that as, “JIT, a government contractor, is hiring a Continuity of Operations (COOP) Specialist” (time to clean my screen and trifocals)

Average Concerned Mom – at 10:54

TRay 75 — Pandemic preparation is starting to become people’s day job….

TRay75at 11:24

Actually, just went through today’s lists in DC and see a few more with similar descriptions, but different titles. Yes, some one has released the PO’s to get staff.

But to me that indicates that the lag time - that is to say, time to get the resources trained, into place, and have some capacity to perform the task downstream - is typically 3 to 6 months. So I would read that as we get through the winter without a pandemic and look more toward the mid-2007 time frame as a TPTB mindset. And since I’m presently certifying in project management, that is right out of almost every guide and textbook for handling projects across a large organization.

Can it be done faster - yes, if there is a lot of money and resources to throw at it, but only to a point. In the trade we use the analogy that it 9 months to make a baby, and you can’t cut that to 1 month by putting 9 women on the same task. So if anyone has better pointers, I’ll be watching. All of this is IMHO and has no insider information - except for the infamous “Watch what they do, not what they say”.

enza – at 11:37

Lisa the GP—I was espressing dismay, frustration, and pain (from tearing at my hair) at the descision made by the conference planners. It was in no way meant as a personal comment on or about you. Sorry I wasn’t around to reply earlier, it was bedtime.

BeWellat 12:13

Just a note about the phrase “in coming days” - in Bengali the use of “a few days” can mean almost any future time frame.

I’m not intimating the Bengali and Chinese are similar! But other than English languages often have different idioms that are not easy to understand when translated literally; of course we all know that!

NJ Jeeper – at 12:20

In case we do get some really great news, let’s be happy, but sitll cautious.

We are like an army preparing to go to war, and that is our mindset. Prepping is underway, mindset is in battle mode, then someone announces there will be no war.

Now what? We should celebrate and put provisions and weapons (preps) back into storage for the next battle to surley come. Still keep the spies out there and be ready. But, do not be disappointed that there is no war.

I am not a polyanna, not am I am optimist by nature, but if this does not happen or is delayed, then yeah, celebrate.

Klatu – at 12:36

‘’‘Lisa the GP – at 02:05 wrote:

Klatu, personal attacks add nothing to the wiki. Reply on topic or not at all.’‘’


Accuracy of the information posted, with proper URL’s is also part of being on topic.

Anon888 – at 12:45

Don’t worry Klatu. It’s not you.

This behavior is why she was banned from other forums.

gharris – at 13:10

Hey Kidz - Dr Niman is hinting (on CE) that important analytical news will be released in the next few days about “an event that has already happened” which will shine ‘blinding’ light on present thinking!! http://tinyurl.com/yye44g

anon – at 13:13

enza – at 01:15 “it was clear that the organizers were well-informed and that this absence of a bird flu segment was a decision based on knowledge and not an oversight based in ignorance.”

UNbelievable.

Clawdia – at 01:44 I think so too, enza.

Lisa the GP – at 01:52 Enza, do you disbelieve my reporting of the conference, or their decision not to include bird flu as a topic?

Klatu – at 01:55 “The lady doth protest too much, methinks.”

—From Hamlet (III, ii, 239)

Lisa the GP – at 02:05 Klatu, personal attacks add nothing to the wiki. Reply on topic or not at all.


The posts running up to Lisa the GP’s post could suggest you think she’s lying. I think I’d get annoyed if I’d read it that way too.

Clawdia – at 14:17

I beg to differ - I find it “unbelievable” because I have a hard time getting hold of the notion that people in the health care field - in particular ER docs who might well be the first people to see a case of H5N1 - don’t think it’s important enough to talk about. I’m simply astonished at the fact that H5N1 was not one of the primary topics addressed by a group such as this.

That’s what I meant - I can’t speak for anyone other than myself.

SPAM DONT FEED TROLLS – at 14:26

now now girls…;)

enza – at 14:53

As I alluded to at 11:37 I was just blown away with the fact that ER docs would not be given updates and information on panflu every year of this conference until our next panflu outbreak.

I was not attacking the messenger, just frustrated by the message.

Lisa the GP – at 15:41

Enza, that was my reaction too.

I brought up the topic in one of the breakout sessions—they had 4 ‘small discussion groups’ running and you could pick 3 of them to attend—infectious disease, cardiology, nephrology, and orthopedics. But Infectious Disease spent so much time talking about XTB and MRSA that the expert didn’t get to H5N1. We discussed it during the break, and the expert was enthusiastic about the topic as a matter of scientific interest, but didn’t think an outbreak was imminent and preferred for that reason to discuss what was ‘here and now’ rather than what ‘might or might not come and isn’t here *today*.’

On one hand it is comforting that the experts—the docs teaching docs, who are doing research in the field—do not think that a pandemic is imminent this year. On the other hand it is discouraging that they did not include a topic which, though the risk of occurence may be small, is so catastrophic if it does occur that one should maintain a level of preparation against it. I thought they should at least have mentioned that ER docs should check with their local county health department about reporting and tracking requirements for flu in their region, given the vigilance needed to identify panflu’s arrival.

An earlier, separate continuing medical education (CME) conference this year for primary care physicians did include a one hour lecture on how to identify and report H5N1 flu, as did a conference last winter for infectious disease. It does strike me as odd that the ER physicians, who are likely to be the very first to encounter a panflu case whenever the next panflu occurs, omitted the topic whereas docs likely to see the cases ‘second’, covered it.

Whatever the reason, bird flu was not included in the ER doc conference.

For those who asked, I am an MD licensed in California but not working clinically due to persistent personal health issues after injuries due to a fall while co-leading a wilderness expedition several years ago. I am now disabled by complex regional pain syndrome, an autonomic nervous system dysfunction with a waxing and waning course. Look it up at your leisure.

As you can see from the above thread I am also a troll magnet, so please do not ask me any additional personal questions as the trolls may incorporate it in their attacks. Thanks for understanding.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 15:57

Lisa the GP – at 15:41 Whatever the reason, bird flu was not included in the ER doc conference

Lisa, it’s nice to get to know you. Is the event you discussed above an annual event or is it possible that H5N1 will be discussed at the next of a series of these or related meetings?

Pixie – at 16:08

LisaGP and Niman are both Dr.’s, smart, and extremely well informed about H5N1.

We have LisaGP telling us that a recent gathering of physcians completely ignored the topic of pandemic influenza, confirming the experience that many of us have with our local physcians for whom H5N1 is just not on the radar.

We have Niman telling us that news is about to break on the H5N1 virus confirming threads of reasoning that apparently many of us have been talking about for some time.

I appreciate the insight of both LisaGP and Niman on these counts, and I don’t like the confluence of what they are saying. The place where these two bits of news meets is not a good one at all.

Closed and Continued - Bronco Bill – at 16:40

So many rumors, so little space! ;-) This thread is long, so closing and continuing here

Last relevant posts copied to new thread

Nova – at 16:42

A psychiatrist I know recently went to a national medical association conference. Bird Flu was a major topic of the gathering. For the first time he didn’t listen to me speak about it as if I were nuts. He said they discussed preps and sheltering in place. I believe he said for three months, but I’ll verify that next time I speak to him.

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