From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: New Rumors XIV

risk assessment and Nature paper Nov 2006

14 November 2006

Bronco Bill – at 16:44

Continued from here


I’m-workin’-on-it – at 15:57

Lisa the GP – at 15:41 Whatever the reason, bird flu was not included in the ER doc conference

Lisa, it’s nice to get to know you. Is the event you discussed above an annual event or is it possible that H5N1 will be discussed at the next of a series of these or related meetings?


Pixie – at 16:08

LisaGP and Niman are both Dr.’s, smart, and extremely well informed about H5N1.

We have LisaGP telling us that a recent gathering of physcians completely ignored the topic of pandemic influenza, confirming the experience that many of us have with our local physcians for whom H5N1 is just not on the radar.

We have Niman telling us that news is about to break on the H5N1 virus confirming threads of reasoning that apparently many of us have been talking about for some time.

I appreciate the insight of both LisaGP and Niman on these counts, and I don’t like the confluence of what they are saying. The place where these two bits of news meets is not a good one at all.

Ruth – at 17:40

This whole thing seems a bit unusual. They are going to have a fake announcement on bird flu, Dr. Niman is talking about breaking news. Whether you like him or not, he wouldn’t try to spread rumors. He’s trying to build up his reputation. Bush is going to Indonesia. Tom DVD is prepping. I’m trying to connect dots.

Clawdia – at 17:40

All doctors are not created equal - Lisa is an MD, Niman a Ph.D.

I think it’s sort of like being glad you have both apples and oranges.

Clawdia – at 17:42

All doctors are not created equal - Lisa is an MD, Niman a Ph.D.

chillindame – at 17:44

TY Clawdia, I was just going to chime in with that thought myself.

Lisa the GP – at 17:49

The event is an annual meeting. Continuing Medical Education (CME) classes are offered by most (all?) academic medical centers, and doctors may choose which events they go to in order to maintain the level of ongoing training required by their state’s Medical Board. A doc in California may take CME units from any entity in the world which is approved for such units, though in general the courses approved in the US are administered through a U. S. medical school, even if the event itself is held in an exotic location or abroad.

Usually, the same event will be held at roughly the same time each year, in a particular location, but the speakers and topics may vary depending upon what is new in any given year.

For a decadent-sounding example, UCSF has a gynecology conference in Hawaii each year at a golf-course resort in Hawaii. But most conferences are held in an ordinary hotel in the same town as the medical center, much like any other business conference.

During the SARS outbreaks, the infectious disease segments probably contained a discussion of SARS. Right now, resistant TB and MRSA are the ‘hot’ infectious disease topics.

Other highlights in medicine this year included vaccines to prevent genital warts/cervical cancer and to prevent shingles in elderly people. The vaccine information was from an Internal Medicine conference and was not included in the Emergency Medicine conference, because ER docs are not generally the ones who give vaccines (other than rabies or tetanus) and turf that preventive medicine duty to the IM/primary care docs.

Conversely the EM conference included information about orthopedics, which was not included in the IM conference; ER docs fix a lot of simple fractures, and IM docs generally turf them to the ER or Orthopedics.

Both groups of docs spend a lot of time and effort on cardiology type stuff—ER slanted toward acute MI and short-term management, IM including longer term management of cardiac patients as well.

I don’t really understand their decision to omit the topic from the ER conference. All I can do is report that they didn’t cover it.

The public is allowed to register and come to CME seminars if they wish. However I suspect much of the discussion would go over most people’s heads, and people interested in only bird flu would find much information not pertinent to their interest. The cost is generally several hundred dollars—though discounts are given for non-medical persons who do not need documentation for CME units for licensure purposes. You can find local classes by searching your local medical center’s website, using ‘continuing medical education’ or ‘cme’ as your search term.

lohrewok – at 17:50

Pixie @ 16:08 “I appreciate the insight of both LisaGP and Niman on these counts, and I don’t like the confluence of what they are saying. The place where these two bits of news meets is not a good one at all”

What exactly do you mean? I feel like my head is full of straw today! :)

lohrewok – at 17:54

LisaGP- what is your opinion of the HPV vaccine? I was thinking of my 12yo daughter getting it. Is it safe?

Clawdia – at 17:55

Somebody can feel free to delete my second post - it appeared that the forum did not load, I went on to another site, and came back to find they had both posted even though I thought I had stopped the process. I’m having a terrible time accessing the forum today.

Treyfish – at 17:59

tomdvm is prepping?!!!!

Lisa the GP – at 18:15

access problems, forgive if this duplicates….mods, for new years can you get the discussion forum a more reliable server service?

Lohre, you should discuss that with your pediatrician. 12 is a good age to get it.

The vaccine was approved this June, and covers Human Papilloma Virus types 16 and 18 (which cause cancer) and 11 (which causes warts). 3 doses are given intramuscularly over a 6 month period. The proteins are generated recombinantly, so there is not any risk of viral contamination of the vaccine. Duration of immunity is unknown, but it was nearly 100% effective at decreasing cervical abnormalities in the trials. Adverse effects reported have been (thus far) limited to minor local reactions at the injection site. Rare reactions usually are not discovered until new vaccines are in wider use—if its a 1 in 100,000 kind of reaction, you’re unlikelly to see it in a clinical trial of a few hundred people, so because the vaccine is new, there remains some possibility of an unexpected, rare adverse reaction.

The vaccine is recommended for all girls age 9 to 11 years old, or (since it is new) any adolescent who is not yet sexually active.

Conversations after the presentation about this at the IM conference included the observation that boys carry the virii and you could make a case to vaccinate them as well even though they do not get cancer from it, to protect their partners. Also, people with few prior sexual partners—even newly divorced or widowed adults who perhaps have had few partners and have been married and monogamous for many years but are now likely to increase their exposure via dating, thus are older but as yet unexposed to one or more of the strains covered—could benefit from the vaccine.

Since the vaccine is new and quantities are not yet vast, the first group targeted is the young girls, though boys and older women as described would have perfectly legitimate reasons to consider it.

Green Mom – at 18:39

My dh attends a similar conference each year-though for mental health practioners, same kind of deal-continuing ed.credits. He has even done presentations. Often the presentations/speakers are lined up months maybe even a year or two in advance. Also-he has complained about topics not allways being the most relevant. Its a kind of political thing: “So and so presented last year so he’s out, and Joe Blow has done all this behind the scenes commitee work so we really need to get him a slot and John Doe just got a grant and some major funding so we really want to feature him.” If these guys are working on timly issues-fantastic, if not, well, maybe better luck next year.

So-while its disappointing and discouraging and to us unbeleivable-I can totally see why BF might not have made it on to the agenda.

anonymous – at 18:43

Lisa the Gp? There really has been a brain drain here when she is quoted. Not that she does not contribute, just that it is entirely parochial and predictable sound bites nor suitable for innovative thinkers. Whether PHD or MD does not matter to me, but thinkers do, and Niman is definitely a thinker not even mentionable in the same breath as the GP, even if he is out of bounds at times.

DemFromCTat 19:04

anonymous – at 18:43

Inappropriate comments. There is no place here for attacking individual commenters, particularly as an anonymous poster. Drop it.

Meserole in FL – at 19:07

I think that all viewpoints should be encouraged. We have no real idea of who is right, who is wrong, and who is a bit of both. More information, from varied sources, is what makes this Wiki so interesting. It’s quite an education.

INFOMASS – at 19:25

I think the news (not really a rumor) from Lisa GP that ER docs are not placing any real priority on a panflu outbreak is very important. Dr. Niman gives us insights into how the virus might evolve, though the level of knowledge - even his - makes it very uncertain predicting when the virus might “click” into a panflu mode. Anyway, we cannot do much about the virus. On the other hand, we (as a society) CAN do a lot in preparing to handle any viral mutation. For most of us, this is not an intellectual game but an attempt to manage risk. I want to thank all contributors who give us useful information, and that very definitely includes Lisa. The question is how to persuade HCW that this is something to take seriously in a systemtic sense. It seems like the accountants and administrators are managing, which is not a good thing.

enza – at 19:33

We plan and host these conf. every year. You can add/ subtract speakers up to a few months in advance. OMG what if someone gets sick or dies?? There is no excuse. And for ER docs??!! It’s tantamount to negligence. This just makes my work harder.

Just my 2 cents. I’ll climb down from my soap box now.

Pseudorandom – at 19:46

It’s interesting to hear from Lisa the GP that panflu is not on the radar of ER docs. In my university hospital, I can’t find anyone except for a single epidemiologist that is aware/concerned of the possibilities. The responses that I’ve gotten from the docs that I work with have been:

Pulmonology - I think you’re crazy, but I have rose-colored glasses on. Family Medicine - Good thing it’s not H2H transmissible. I have 3 days of food in the house. Pediatrics - I don’t see why it won’t go pandemic. I hope we have a vaccine by then. I don’t know what else we can do. Grant budgeting (not a doc) - So-and-so in microbiology studies influenza. GP in student health - no reply

Either my hospital is not talking to the doctors about this or everyone in my research circle is playing stupid. I have little faith in the latter. Either way, getting information about the panflu prep plans at my institution (if they even exist) is like squeezing water from a stone. The permitted ignorance is criminal.

Edna Mode – at 19:52

lohrewok – at 17:54 LisaGP- what is your opinion of the HPV vaccine? I was thinking of my 12yo daughter getting it. Is it safe?

I received info on this last week from my 11 y.o. DD’s doc. I suggest you do your own research. While everything Lisa GP says is correct, it is a brand new vaccine that, while promising (very much so) in trials, has not been applied to the larger population. I will not get my DD vaccinated for at least a couple of years—maybe longer—as I watch for unintended consequences of the vaccination program. The reason it is being pushed on girls this young is to catch them before they become sexually active at which point their risk of exposure increases. To the best of my knowledge, there is no health benefit in receiving the vaccine at our DDs’ age. There will be many who argue that parents don’t really know their kids as well as they think. That’s true in many cases, but not in all. Make your decision according to your relationship with your daughter and your own research.

All that said, this is the rumor thread, not the gynecological health thread. If this conversation continues, how about we move it into its own thread—assuming the discussion has a relationship to the AI mission of the wiki.

DemFromCTat 20:03

assuming the discussion has a relationship to the AI mission of the wiki.

Otherwise, it should be taken off-line.

Treyfish – at 20:20

I scared my sons dr a few monthes ago,she turned white and didnt want to talk about it. She tried me first,but when confronted with what i knew and telling her of this place she ran!It was in rumors from a few months ago.Some drs will talk about it and others run from it.Just my 2 cents.

Treyfish – at 20:23

Now, about the dhs taking over security at the sanofi vaccine plant….that was good!

lohrewok – at 20:48

Thanks for your info LisaGP. Edna Mode, I’m thinking along the same lines as you are.

JWB – at 21:16

Treyfish – at 20:23

Now, about the dhs taking over security at the sanofi vaccine plant….that was good!


That be me. Supposedly that happens tommorrow. I’ll keep ya posted!

JWB – at 21:54

My post keep getting ‘wiped’ from the Global Rehearsal thread.

JWB – at 21:56

So I post it here:

We are all looking for the panflu “trigger” announcement. A clue, a Freudian slip of the tongue, a signal, in every single newsbit. I for one, have finally, (thank God), realized that dissecting every sentence that is uttered is insane. We will KNOW when it starts. There won’t be any debating about it for 7 hours. There is no way it will be kept under wraps for days for the ‘elite’. It will be like 9/11. Whack! You will know it when ‘it’ happens.

By the way, I’m only posting this for my own selfish reasons. Things posted in that ugly orangee brown and black fluwike just seem to make more sense to me. So, move along folks, nothing to see here.

anonymous – at 22:11

Dem, not an inappropriate comment comment directed at an individual, just a comment directed at the collective. Learn to distinguish between the two, and the truth becomes experientially true and not a sound bite or legal proof spew. We are here because the majority see panflu otherwise , if not we need to be elsewhere.

DemFromCTat 22:22

bump

JWB – at 22:25

There is a ‘glitch’ somewhere on the Global Rehearsal thread. 5 of my post, plus several of others, just disappear. Only the post that promote hype stay.

(Treyfish - this kind of stuff makes me glad that the ‘Greys’ will be doing areial cover for the Sanofi plant.! (chuckle, chuckle. laugh, laugh))

DemFromCTat 22:29

posting exactly at the same time does that.

15 November 2006

Pixie – at 00:01

lohrewok – at 17:50 What exactly do you mean? I feel like my head is full of straw today! :)

Sorry lohrewok, I’m just getting back to this thread. I meant what some others chimed in on, basically. That if LisaGP is telling us that physcians are not being made aware of the extent of this threat, and Niman is telling us on the same day that things are ramping up in some way with regard to H5N1, it means one thing:

We are not ready.

anon this time – at 00:23

Physicians are being made aware of the threat. One conference does not trend make.

My DH works at one of the largest teaching hospitals in the Northeast. They are having a campus-wide pandemic drill tomorrow (under the guise of a bio-terror attack so as not to freak the general public out—but that’s another story!) involving everyone from receptionsists to ER docs. DH came home with the hospital’s pandemic plan tucked under his arm.

Physicians are being made aware of the threat.

mojo – at 00:39

My hubby is a family physician and the only info he is getting is from me. Nothing from the hospital.

Lisa the GP – at 00:58

anon-this-time, that is good news.

I did go to an internal medicine conference that covered the topic for an hour a few weeks ago, and am posting the content presented on another thread as my patience for typing it in permits (doctors teaching doctors). The absence of the topic at the ER conference was surprising.

Earlier in the year I went to an infectious disease conference, where they of course did discuss bird flu at length. But they also discussed dengue, chickungunya, and several other rare tropical diseases which I can’t remember off-hand, in depth, ‘cause they’re infectious disease geeks and that’s what they do.

The plan for the hospital associated with the ID conference was that workers’ families should plan to be without the worker for the duration, and the hospital was planning to feed and house all the workers for the duration, and was trying to buy up adequate masks (something was preventing them getting the amount they needed from abroad, other than money, I couldn’t get a clear answer on what…). They planned to have antivirals for staff use in the event of illness but not prophylaxis. The idea was to protect the families from infection by isolating the worker from the family. There was no talk of coercion when this plan was presented; the tone was one of *convincing* staff that this was the most rational approach.

Treyfish – at 05:56

jwb- the greys are well armes and have quick transportation vehicles ;}

JWB – at 09:28

Treyfish – at 05:56 jwb- the greys are well armes and have quick transportation vehicles ;}


Yep. Did you ever ride in one of those things? Man, talk about vertigo!

DennisCat 09:58

very questionable.

I found this on another (“wilder”) flu site. It has no confirmation, nor links, just pure rumor. I am just including it for “rumor completness”, not that I believe it. It does illustrate the type of thing that “could happen” and what rumors are going around.

but the writer says that there is a cruise ship from China with many ill and a some deaths. http://tinyurl.com/w2v9u

Again, it is not that I believe the posting - but what would you do with a “plague ship” if there was one? Perhaps keep it a sea and air lift people in Haz suits?- Keep it quite, or mobilize the system.

tjclaw1 – at 10:22

I posted this the other day, not sure what thread, but my GP specifically told me that they have had absolutely no pandemic training and it hasn’t even been mentioned. Her clinic is part of our local hospital that has maybe 60 beds. She commented that if they expect the physicians to be on the front line in a pandemic they should at least provide them with training. She wasn’t even aware of testing for H5N1 or how or where to send specimins, but said she’d call an infectious diseas specialist in the event she had a suspected case.

JWB – at 10:44

DennisC – at 09:58

It probably a take off from a article several years old on Worldnetdaily.

<snip>

Posted: February 21, 2003 1:00 a.m. Eastern

<snip> Act I

It started with news reports of a suicide bombing at sea. Cell phone calls were coming in from passengers on the “Lady Anne”, a cruise ship that had embarked from San Diego earlier that week headed for the Hawaiian Islands. According to one passenger who reached a local radio station, at least 30 people died suddenly in the huge explosion in the ship’s crowded ballroom. The suicide bomber knew what he was doing, placing himself where the bomb would cause the most damage. It was a grisly scene the caller described, body parts were everywhere, dazed passengers wandered the hallways in shock, and a huge number of wounded still went uncounted.

The Coast Guard immediately flew in an emergency surgical team, while the seriously wounded were rushed to the ship’s hospital. TV helicopters from Honolulu were circling the ship, long before the morning light. Americans who woke up listening to the cell-phone interview played over live footage of the “Lady Anne” – still a half-day from Hilo – could only think of the bombings in Israel, which created similar carnage. However, this was no normal terrorist attack. The “Lady Anne” bombing was only intended to get America’s attention. It succeeded. All the cable channels immediately connected to the satellite feed from Hawaiian TV. In fact, before long, the whole world was watching this “horror at sea.” There was more to come.

The terrorist noose closed quickly. Right as the story broke, someone placed a 911 emergency call that health officials first thought might be a prank. A prerecorded voice warned that the “Lady Anne” was also under biological attack.

In a clear Oxford English accent, steady and polite, the voice on the phone said that the “Lady Anne” had been exposed to a weapons-grade agent after disembarking from San Diego Harbor. Not much was said about the “agent,” just enough to raise serious alarm. It was a genetically engineered variety of smallpox, supposedly resistant to current inoculation technology. The tape message emphasized that the bio-attack occurred only after the ship was “safely” out in open sea, away from any possibility of shore contamination.

The caller’s polite personal assurances made his statement all the more chilling to those who understood the nature of the disease, which can literally melt the body from within while the patient remains conscious to the end.

Under “normal” circumstances without immunity, virologists knew that at least 30 percent of the passengers infected would die an ugly death within weeks. What they didn’t know until later was that the weapons-grade strain used was capable of killing with near 100 percent efficiency by causing massive hemorrhaging similar to the effects of the fearsome “black pox.” All Coast Guard personnel who had boarded the ship were immediately notified to stay there until further notice. The “Lady Anne’s” wounded would also have to remain on board. A triage area that had been set up in the dining room became a hospital.

The prerecorded voice on the phone called the “Lady Anne” a “death ship,” guaranteeing that after three days at sea most of the passengers (well over 1,200, including 43 children) would be infected, including himself. Maintaining an even tone, the caller gave his cabin number and said that, having finished his suicide mission with the ballroom bombing, proof of the biological agent would be left by his bed in an empty fountain pen used to smuggle the agent aboard. He said it was essential that the ship be stopped before docking in Hilo or American authorities “would be responsible for a disaster of global proportions.” No one needed convincing.

It was guessed that the terrorists had used modern aerosol particle technology, probably exposing the passengers during dinner on the first night. In previous decades, smallpox was not considered a very efficient weapon because disseminating it was so difficult. However, as reported by the New Yorker magazine and others in the late 1990s, the silicon-chip industry had developed credit-card size devices for special uses, which as it happens were also perfect for the efficient spread of viral particles. In 1998, a PBS Frontline documentary had pointed out that such a device could easily be placed inside a fake thermostat and attached to any wall in a public place. Experts knew this attack was totally doable. Now the public would know.

It was a bio-terror nightmare, made more frightening by its precise execution. Government strategies had to be devised on what exactly to do with the giant white ship, famous in the Hawaiian Islands for its sleek good looks and haute cuisine. For the moment it would remain quarantined at sea and under strict security.

Space-suited health officials would have to board the ship as soon as possible. In the hope that it might do some good, they would inoculate the passengers and crew with regular smallpox vaccine, isolate them, and then wait to see if anyone survived. There was also the question of how to handle large numbers of contaminated bodies, and the inevitable panic – both on board and around the country.

There was no chance to manage the media, which had received the same prerecorded message. On top of that, the “Lady Anne” was already a major national story due to the bombing. The public would have to know everything as it unfolded, or clearly, heads would roll back in Washington.

Over the ship’s audio system the captain told the passengers to immediately return to their quarters as a precaution. No explanation was given, but soon after, heavily suited CDC investigators were seen walking the hallways, accompanied by an armed guard. The fountain pen had tested positive. After everyone was inoculated, the waiting game began. America watched as several days passed. At first nothing, but then suddenly passengers started getting flu-like symptoms. Within days they were dying in large numbers. Panic took hold of the ship, making security very difficult. Once the disease erupts, victims become highly contagious. One passenger managed to get on deck, and could be seen jumping overboard. The Coast Guard kept him at bay until security agents could pick him up. TV news helicopters captured it all on videotape.

Back in the states, headlines read, “World Watches Death Ship,” while the networks and cable channels play video of the escaping passenger over and over.

The ensuing flood of articles and TV news reports were full of details, not only of the dead and dying on the “Lady Anne”, but also detailed histories of past smallpox outbreaks and their devastating effects, including the famous 1972 event in Yugoslavia where one “patient zero” shut down the whole country and caused the inoculation of 18 million people. The “Lady Anne” had hundreds of “patient zeroes” who had a highly contagious disease against which there was no protection. It was a floating biological bomb.

The public is terrified at the thought. All these men, women, and children on a dream vacation to see the world have now become a danger to the world. They themselves have been turned into a weapon, held back only by the terrorist warning. The scenario, scripted carefully, has played out exactly as the terrorists planned. Act II is about to begin.

Act II ….. <snip>

can’do the tinyurl here

Are we there yet – at 11:25

JWB at 10:45

; - ) Shame on you for not also including the following sentence before the above scenario,

“Consider the following modest scenario and the effect it would likely have on us all:”

Lots of people I think are going to read your post and say, “What?! When did this happen?!”

DennisCat 11:26

JWB – at 10:44

Thanks, the info didn’t “smell right” and I had lots of doubts that it could be true yet not appear in any deep searches.

But I still wonder if the “system” has plans for such things as “plague ships”. I think it is just a matter of time (months, years??) before we see such ships, planes, trains, …..

and thanks again - good work/memory

Are we there yet – at 11:28

Also, below is the tinyurl link to eth article you referred to

http://tinyurl.com/y2tu64

JWB – at 11:38

Are we there yet – at 11:25

Surely you jest!

I posted:

It probably a take off from a article several years old on Worldnetdaily.

…AND…

Posted: February 21, 2003 1:00 a.m. Eastern

…AND…

Act I

Now if you can’t fiqured out that it’s fiction, shame on you.

crfullmoon – at 11:43

“the hospital’s pandemic plan” may not be worth the paper it is printed on, if the public, including all the hospital staff, was never told we are in a pandemic alert period and they are supposed to be getting ready to cope without outside aid for a pandemic year… and hospital admins thought it would cut current profits to stock up on PPE and basic medical supplies and imported drugs and parts …

Also I think the mass fatality plans, what I can find of them, are planned to fail (they’re failing to plan for anything worse than mild). Mortuary and cemetery staff are also not being told enough (if anything). (“6 months worth of work in 6 weeks” sounds like that’s all, and it’s over after that, right? no mention of travel, supply chain, grid or staff disruptions…)

Are we there yet – at 11:44

Hi JWB

I put the smiley in to let you know I was just teasing.

That said, “It probably a take off from a article several years old on Worldnetdaily” doesn’t tell me it was a fictional scenario.

JWB – at 11:59

Are we there yet – at 11:44

OK.

Are we there yet – at 12:02

; - )

YetAnotherAnonat 13:53

LisaGP: The plan for the hospital associated with the ID conference was that workers’ families should plan to be without the worker for the duration, and the hospital was planning to feed and house all the workers for the duration, and was trying to buy up adequate masks


And what about all the single parents out there.

Exactly how are these families going to plan to do without the worker/head of household.

Ain’t going to happen.

This “plan” will fall apart within hours of implementation.

Leo7 – at 14:05

Yes, all it will take is for one HCW to have read these threads, Barry’s book etc, or just know about the concept of waves of infection for it to fail. Having seen a stressed out single parent confront admin during a storm lockdown over 24 hours before it would hit, I would like to say, mom was allowed to leave and moved to plan C. People forget HCW’s are married to doctors, nurses, policeman, paramedics, fireman, electrical workers etc. Some families have one or both parents as essential workers. Anyone ever see a plan to deal with that?

enza – at 14:10

That’s our family plan B. Teenagers ‘home alone’!

pablo escobar – at 14:16

planning to fail. Planning to Fail. PLANNING TO FAIL. As long as we use 1918 as worst case, we are planning to fail.

It is like the Katrina Disaster. They planned for a Cat 3 strike. They got a Cat 4. Heaven forbid a Cat 5.

Planning for a Cat 3 pandemic, is orders of magnitude off from what is needed.

Plan for the worst, hope for the best. Good idea.

Plan for the best, hope for the worst to stay away. Bad idea.

Rant over

YetAnotherAnonat 17:32

… the tone was one of *convincing* staff that this was the most rational approach.


Hope is not a plan.

Homesteader – at 18:01

I can hear it now from the Administrators. . .

“We had a plan but the HCW’s wouldn’t follow directions” ie: “it was the HCW’s fault it didn’t work, not ours” It is called CYA.

Honestly, what plan would work?

Average Concerned Mom – at 18:49

Homesteader at 18:01

“Honestly, what plan would work?”

Yes, that really is the question, isn’t it?

2beans – at 18:59

No, hope isn’t a plan. Compassion and preparation ARE. Even if it’s only for your immediate neighborhood. Katrina returnees are finding it’s no fun to be the only occupants on your (former) block. Empty houses don’t make a community. Gather those near to you and make them dear to you. Communal animals have always depended upon empathy (the kindness of strangers) to survive as a clan. There is no other way. Will I do it under the gun? I hope to god I will.

17 November 2006

ADuckOrangeMercureyat 13:17

With reference to my post at 07:59 in thread New Rumors XI - I can reconfirm this from the source itself: I understand one of the half-pedigreed chickens is preparing more in-depth information for one of the fighting cocks reigning above the coop, for the information of the thorougbred head farmer.

It is envisaged that a variety of cacklings sounds will be forwarded to the head farmer with guidance on circumstances which might lead to a coop closure if agricultural intrants were too contaminated for normal feeding. In addition, it is foreseen that there will soon be a round-up of all poultry species to listen to the head farmer. It is also possible that a small users’ manual be distributed for hens’ and chickens’ general information. I have understood also that the mixed cries on the subject of the analysis of agricultural intrants and agriculture manufacturers, which have been recently heard from the multinational shareholders’ place (the one that is not far from this chicken coop), are being considered with dismay. And that it is speculated that the sounds that may later be heard from a recently arrived bar-headed goose, when it will finally sits in that place, are unlikely to be conducive to clear and transparent melodies.

I might be able to reconfirm more of this second paragraph’s message some time next week.

Malachi – at 13:42

Could anyone translate this duck language for me?I wanted to ask the last time duck posted but didn’t.After reading the IQ Thread I am sure most of you speak Duck right ;)

FrenchieGirlat 14:53

Re: AduckOrangeMercurey – as a rough tranlation, I read this:

First paragraph: The poster confirms the writing of the report for the top boss and has met its writer.

Second paragraph: A number of recommendations will be forwarded to the top boss regarding the closure of the work place should there be a number of BF cases coming into the area. Workers will be convened to a meeting to hear the top boss. A leaflet containing general info could be distributed. The contradictory statements of the health body, which is situated not far from this poster’s work place, in the analysis of the possibility of a potential H2H situation, or on the subject of vaccine manufacturing, are viewed with dismay because they are not coherent with “speak with one voice”. [Note from the translator – this needs to be confirmed as a general view and not just that of an individual]. It is speculated that statements that may be made in the future, by the recently appointed head of the health body when she takes up her duties, are unlikely to promote transparency.

Comment: I would think that the individual initiative of this employer to act on gathering information and attempt to arrive at a number of solutions, or at least to make the effort to deep-think on the subject, rather than address itself to the health body for guidance, is significant.

Jane – at 15:00

Who is the head farmer? Any guesses? Kofi Annan? Or a medical person?

KimTat 15:11

chan

KimTat 15:17

WHO HEAD

Jane – at 15:26

WHO head Chan is the bar-headed goose who will soon take up her duties, no?

Malachi – at 15:32

Thanks :)

INFOMASS – at 15:44

FrenchieGirl: Is there a new mood or sense of urgency in your place since the recent Nature article showing that bird flu can easily mix with human flu and become transmissible? Both Niman and Ns1 seem to think it is significant while the mods said they were no more worried. I am confused and would like another viewpoint. It seems to me that this raises the chances of a pandemic flu in the next several months, and possibly a lethal one. Of course, nothing is certain but some things are likely. Any sense of your co-workers?

KimTat 15:58

Thanks FG for helping us with the ADuckOrangeMercurey – at 13:17 translation. It helped move things along.

FrenchieGirlat 16:36

KimT, Jane. Yes. Malachi ;-) I would think ADuckOrangeMercurey is talking in riddles for understandable reasons.

Infomass. The sense of urgency is confined to a very few people. Not, I don’t think because of the recent Nature article, but because there has been much background noise in the last two weeks or so. Also because theses noises in the various languages in the press in the Old World are contradictory. My co-workers are complete ignoramuses when it comes to medical matters. Even those who should know better by virture of their jobs have difficulty in comprehending what is going on with BF. They either get the very rough basics provided by the leading websites of WHO, OIE, FAO, Cidrap, and the - sometimes bad info - by the science columnists in the national press, etc.etc. or they get the complete scientific articles full of figures, superscript letters and abscons words which not even most doctors can make sense of. 99% of my colleagues have the absolute and total baby’s innocence, who wouldn’t be able for most to make the difference between aspirin and paracetamol or a strawberry sweet. However, I have noticed people pay more attention when I speak about it. Also, I get looks of shock when I describe some of the things I learnt here on the FW - suddenly there is awareness that this bf business could be really bad.

As far as I am concerned, I view a number of recent articles, not just the Nature one, as portends of very bad news, but I could not say that this was the case of my colleagues. As to “when”, zatt eezze theee kwestyon…

If I understand right, some top people at ADuckOrangeMercurey’s place are starting to take initiative to inform themselves with different viewpoints to those standardly requested - or at least in addition to those. And also, it is not just a question of finding independent information, it’s also envisaging measures that are thought through, along the lines of some of the deepest conversations we’ve had on this forum on occasions. One would add to this employer’s concerns about its staff, the possible will to look at some of the global consequences a pandemic would have. This employer is obviously not just any employer, not just a big one, it’s one that has world influence in some areas. And which listens to its financial contributors. So this “study” may be the result not only of the local press but of what it has heard outside. Admittedly, this seems to concern only the workers at this stage, but the info which has been collated would be relevant for outside its walls, or help to make decisions at the highest levels elsewhere. So that’s why I think the information above is significant of the increasing worry that this bf business is very very serious, but there is still need for much adjustment reactions.

It would be interesting to find out next week if anything further can be learnt by ADuckOrangeMercurey. I don’t think the purpose of ADOM’s post is to fuel worry or to start a scare, but more to bring news that the threat is being taken seriously at some important levels. Which in some way could be seen as reassuring (as in taking steps to prepare/protect) rather than being viewed as threatening (so far, it’s NOT said that there’s an imminent disaster).

Suzi – at 16:55

Okay, I guess I’ve missing something … who/what is ADuckOrangeMercurey, and why do we believe this person? Some background sure would be appreciated.

Some of the talking in riddles/circles I’ve been reading lately is making me a little jaded and wondering what is real and what is “games.”

Northstar – at 16:59

Suzi, I haven’t read the whole thread, but sometimes people have to use a different pseudonym than usual to protect their jobs; we have to guess by the writing style who that person is. If you’ve been in the forum for a while, it’s pretty easy.

KimTat 17:02

ADuckOrangeMercurey is a very special friend who we trust and gets info to us that we normally would not hear.

KimT

Northstar – at 17:07

I just read the post. :-D Thanks ADuck! Too funny!

Okieman – at 17:08

Suzi – at 16:55

ADuckOrangeMercurey has posted before and many of us are familiar with the riddle language used. Don’t let it throw you. They are using this type of language to protect their own personal job security (and maybe other reasons). Somewhat similar to why many of us use pseudonyms on the fluwiki. This poster works near Geneva, Switzerland and has contacts in certain important global organizations there. This poster had somewhat of a ringside seat in Geneva during the SARS outbreak. They are in a unique position to hear and see things many of us would never hear or see. Work through the cryptic language the best you can because it is being used for a good reason.

FrenchieGirlat 17:09

Suzi, ADuckOrangeMercurey is in Geneva in one of the many international organizations there, not WHO, and is trying to get as much info for the FluWikians. This person would risk the sack being recognized, which is the why of the riddles and why it would also be nice to exercise restraint with naming names. Too much probing here would be conducive to a number of sources drying up - is this what people want.

Some might want to make up their own dictionary to translate - chickens and hens being staff, unless they are pedigreed, which would mean fairly high level staff, a fighting cock would be a department head, head farmer being the equivalent of President, agricultural intrants being contaminated h2h people, etc. etc.

Since what is posted here are rumours, you cannot expect proof or source. You have to just take these posts at the value which you attribute to them, making up your own mind if these are games or not. And on this, I’d think, with respect to bf, humour would go into the lounge and not appear here!

ANON-YYZ – at 17:12

The Ontario Provincial Coodination Plan for Influenza Pandemic (PCPIP) no longer links the Activation of the plans with WHO phases, although the Ontario Health Plan for Influenza Pandemic (OHPIP) still does.

‘’2.2.4 The activation of plans and EOCs may not necessarily occur ‘phase-for phase’ with the health care sector responses under the OHPIP, although activation will likely occur in, or by Phase 6.

page 21 of the PDF below:

http://preview.tinyurl.com/ykycqc

Edna Mode – at 17:21

The head farmer is not Chan. She clearly is the bar-headed goose.

Who is the head farmer, then?

Well, what body has authority over WHO? Who leads that body?

Am I close, Frenchie Girl?

Suzi – at 17:22

Thanks, all, for cluing me in … I would never expect someone to reveal their identity, and I do believe that sometimes the “rumors” are the best information, if you can sort through it. This particular one just threw me.

Sorry ADuckOrangeMercurey, I didn’t mean to offend.

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 17:26

FrenchieGirl - Thanks for your ‘translation’ assistance. I’ve been waiting to hear from duck for the past day and was hoping I’d be up to deciphering task as Ducks info is always so very important. Thanks again.

anon_22 – at 17:29

I want to jump in here and make a few comments about threat assessment, since quite a few people seem to be very alarmed by the Nature article, and some of you are nonplussed by the dissonance in the reactions of different people.

I think the problem has to do with the approach to new information or new data, eg the Nature article. The question of whether the mutations are significant has to be put in the context: significant for what? Let me just put that question here for you to consider while I run through the rest of my arguments, and then I will get back to it specifically.


When you get some new data, the question that comes up immediately should be, does this change anything about anything that I know? The answer to that question lies with what you already know before now, ie the ‘background’ upon which this new data has to be evaluated.

In this context, we are talking about the binding of H5N1 to alpha2,6 linked receptors, which from previous studies we general accept as being prevalent in humans and not birds, so that a switch from alpha 2,3 binding to 2,6 may indicate an increased ability to bind to human cells, thus facilitating human infections.

There are indications that the issues are a lot more complex than just simple switching, eg there may be different types of 2,6 or 2,3 receptors, or that we don’t know if receptor binding is the most critical step of transmission or infection, since we know practically nothing about all the other things that need to happen for transmission or infection to occur. Let’s just leave all that aside for a virology thread later, and just accept this simple paradigm as accurate.

So we assume that a switch to 2,6 is bad news. Fine. The next question is, does it change your risk perception? Why should it change your risk perception? (I’m not saying it shouldn’t, just bear with me while I develop the argument.)

To change your risk perception, you need to ask yourself what was your risk perception based on before you know about this new data? In this instance, did you assume there had never been any H5N1 viruses that could bind to ‘human’ receptors?

If you did, let me tell you that that was a mistake.


So far, H5N1 has infected >200 people. Suppose magically we have all the samples from all these people available, and we were to run the glycan assays with all of them, would you have expected some to be positive for 2,6 binding? If the glycan assays are any good, and at this point they look like pretty solid science to me, would you have expected that to the extent that the virus did succeed in infecting all these people, that at least some of these samples would have been positive for 2,6 binding?

If not, how solid is the receptor binding theory?

See, you can’t have it both ways. You can’t accept totally the assumptions behind the receptor binding concept, and expect out of 200+ human infections that did happen, none of the viruses were able to bind to human receptors.

Since no such data was available before, the fact that we find some now, really may not indicate any increase in current risk. Or it may. We just can’t draw those conclusions based on this particular finding.

Remember, we are talking about new data in the background of no or almost no previous data. Apart from the Stevens paper in which they examined one H5N1 sample, I don’t think anyone else has studied this virus in this particular way. At least I haven’t seen any.

So then when should we be alarmed by new data? Let me give a few examples, hypothetically.

Suppose someone had already run such tests for a fairly large sample of H5N1 human isolates, and we knew already that x% of human samples previously showed binding to ‘human’ receptors, and now all of a sudden the percentage has gone up.

Or suppose, out of all the different mutations that they found that could promote 2,6 binding, now you have one mutation or one particular combination of mutations that is now turning up more frequently.

For me, that would cause me to think something has changed, and the risk might have increased.

Now suppose this particular mutation or set of mutations is also associated with increased virulence (higher CFR), or increased transmission (bigger or more frequent clusters), or both, then that would be really really bad news.


Now to go back to the original question, how significant are these mutations? For me, they are significant for many reasons.

1) It tells us something we didn’t know before. It validates the previous work by Stevens and others, and it gives us an additional set of ‘background’ data with which future data can be compared.

2) To the extent that some of these mutations are found in isolates from actual human infections, those particular mutations are likely to be significant. This is still based on an extremely small number of samples, so we would keep our eye out for similar results in future studies.

3) It tells me that glycan assay is a useful tool that should be used and maybe standardized so that different researchers can compare findings.


Finally, I would have preferred that they didn’t find such mutations, that all tests came back negative.

But then, it would have caused me to question the validity of either the assay or the receptor binding theory, or both.

Northstar – at 17:36

Keep in mind the US president is travelling overseas right now. He might be talking to the “head farmer” or he may be one. I’m sure there are a number of head farmers who are pitting their pedigreed fighting cocks against each other right now. We need to see who is talking to whom.

The (Chinese) bar headed goose was easy. (s)

And I feel like one of the chickens just trying to cross the road. :-(

I think we should be very careful about pressing for translation and just use our good sense in guessing. Please share your guesses!

AnonymousThisTimeat 17:40

Edna Mode. Head Farmer is top at ADuckOrangeMercurey’s place. Bar-headed goose is top at the health body. There would be no hierarchical link between the two places. There is only the belonging to a worldwide family of staff motivated by the same ideals, make the world a better place through a number of intergovernmental agencies (despite that some may consider that there are few rotten apples in such circles too.)

Abraxas – at 18:06

anon_22 – at 17:29

Thanks, I needed that.

From Nova to Dem – at 20:13

I applaud your willingness to allow the earthquake warning and am sorry you closed the thread. I know that isn’t a popular view here, but I think survival is survival and natural or terrorist events can have a huge impact on preparedness in general. Perhaps, in the future, the Fluwikians will allow such warnings to be posted on the rumor thread without getting twitterpated. To the person who posted the warning, it was most respectful of him/her to request permission first and I hope they weren’t offended by the response they received.

Edna Mode – at 20:31

Thanks, AnonymousThisTime – at 17:40. I’m new to Duck a l’orange! I usually stay out of the rumor threads. There’s enough alarming about the actual news that I figure rumors that bear fruit will get their own thread or bleed into the news thread. It appears I should add this thread to my list of regulars.

Anon_22, thank you for the argument you laid out. Excellent as usual. I will say for myself, however, that it is not just—maybe not even—the Nature article that has heightened my alert level so much as the cumulative effect of background noise that Frenchie Girl referred to above. I am seeing and hearinng things here on the wiki and on more local levels that, when I take them together, lead me to conclude that the pace is quickening with TPTB. My life experience has demonstrated to me that TPTB don’t generally act until the eleventh hour, so I’m not at all reassured.

Tink – at 21:00

Concerning the Nature paper that anon_22 – at 17:29 refers to, have you read Revere’s comment about it on Effect Measure? I’ve provided the link below. Look for the title: Another “big” H5N1 Science Paper. Revere provides a different prospective that explains what was disclosed in the Nature paper might not be so alarming at this point.

http://tinyurl.com/yxa5tr

INFOMASS – at 21:31

To FrenchieGirl and anon_22: Thank you both for answering my questions in different ways. I suppose that LisaGP’s point that watching for larger and more numerous clusters is the gold standard for judging viral robustness is correct. The hadj starts close to Christmas and it should give all the viruses a chance to socialize. Who knows if a few marriages might result? If one is risk averse, I suppose January and February will be a good time to stay home?

anon_22 – at 21:34

My post disappeared :-(

If I didn’t know any better, I would have thought it was another conspiracy by TPTB. <g>


Edna Mode – at 20:31

I don’t want to tell you what to think cos I don’t know that I’m right. But FWIW, it seems to me you are putting yourself in a bind in that if TPTB don’t do anything, you think we’re screwed (probably true), but if TPTB starts doing things, you think we are screwed even sooner than you thought.

That will definitely give you a whole lot of unnecessary and avoidable rollercoaster rides, IMHO.

If you read the National Strategies Implementation Plan, there are pages and pages of several hundred ‘activities’ listed, all with timeframes clearly posted on them. Some of these are reaching the dates for achieving intermediate if not final goals, so naturally you will see a lot more activities. And some of them will as usual be mishandled, such as the HK Consulate fiasco.

And most officials have not learnt that there are bloggers who try to analyze their words to the nth degree of clarity, or confusion, as is more often the case, so they don’t know how to frame such communications so as to let you have an easier time.

(Not yet, anyway. We aim to teach them. But that’s another story.)


The ability to keep a cool head despite the background noise is one thing that we should all train ourselves to do as part of pandemic prep, cos we will all need that in bucketfuls if TSHTF.

Or even if it doesn’t.

:-)

anon_22 – at 21:36

INFOMASS – at 21:31

If one is risk averse, I suppose January and February will be a good time to stay home?

Is that a question? :-)

I’m travelling as much as ever…

anon_22 – at 21:36

Tink – at 21:00

I did, after reading your post, thank you.

I agree with every word that he said.

Average Concerned Mom – at 21:46

non_22 at 21:34

“If you read the National Strategies Implementation Plan, there are pages and pages of several hundred ‘activities’ listed, all with timeframes clearly posted on them. Some of these are reaching the dates for achieving intermediate if not final goals, so naturally you will see a lot more activities.”

THANK YOU! That was what I was talking about (on another thread entirely) remembering you had said. I think as we see more and more statements and activities and reports all of a sudden, it looks to us (well me at least) like Something Must Be Up (and of course it might well be) but it could also just be that the particular timeframe has been reached.

anon_22 – at 21:54

Oh, one other thing?

Do not use actions by TPTB as lead indicators.

They generally lag behind the market.

That’s us, in case you are wondering.

anon_22 – at 21:57

At the IOM meeting, I met a member of TPTB whose name will be instantly recognizable to people on this forum. When I introduced myself, he instantly said “oh, so you are the people who give us the news.”

:-)

NJKME – at 21:58

My interpretation of duck language, and I guess I’m off the mark looking at FrenchieGirl’s and Okieman’s postings is this…

The Chicken Coop is the UN, head farmer is UN Sec. General, headquarter for UN is New York. Also in New York is found the “New York Stock Exchange”, the “multinational shareholders’ place (the one that is not far from this chicken coop)”. As far as I know the world’s economy in some shape or form is plugged into Wall Street. Wall Street does not like uncertainty and since all world parties are working at odds with each other and not providing one united voice in regards to pandemic possibilty and action plans, Wall Street is dismayed.

I was assuming that one of the fighting cocks reigning above the coop could possibly allude to Pres. Bush and that a low level staffer of his was generating a report to pass onto Sec. Gen. of UN. Sounds as if there may be a UN meeting convened soon to get all parties of the world on the same page in regards to pandemic planning by passing out another report. Oh and there is concern that Chan is not going to be as “transparent” as she was recently quoted as saying she was going to be.

Now I hope this doesn’t compromise ADOM’s identity but I would think if a no-nothing mother of 2 from Central Maine could come up with this then his/her employer could do the same.

But then you say the poster is from Geneva so there goes that theory.

Thanks ADOM, that was very interesting exercise and I will go back to lurker mode. :)

Siam – at 22:12

NJKME thanks for the translation. It really helped, I was lost before.

NJKME – at 22:23

Thanks Siam but I think you really need to look to FrenchieGirl’s interpretation. She’s the real deal!!

Edna Mode – at 23:23

anon_22 – at 21:34 anon_22 – at 21:54 Oh, one other thing? Do not use actions by TPTB as lead indicators. They generally lag behind the market. That’s us, in case you are wondering.

Yes, and that’s just my point. TPTB are scrambling to catch up to “the market.” When I talk about background noise, I am not referring to project milestones. I understand that there are many such planning, reporting, etc. milestones at local, state, federal, and international organizations too numerous to list here.

When I speak of the pace quickening, what I refer to is a confluence of factors—leading indicators, if you will—that I pay attention to. One of those is a discernible uptick in the sense of urgency (and not just to meet a milestone deadline) in my daily contacts with people who are either directly responsible for or provide goods and services to those responsible for regional pandemic planning efforts.

I’ve said this before, and I’ll probably say it again. While I agree that it is good advice to keep a cool head despite the background noise, I believe it is spurious to assume that due diligence derives from or equates to panic. I believe you can keep a cool head, a keen eye, and a curious mind simultaneously.

18 November 2006

anon_22 – at 05:02

Edna Mode – at 23:23

I believe you can keep a cool head, a keen eye, and a curious mind simultaneously.

Absolutely agree!

FrenchieGirlat 06:31

NJKME – at 21:58 - I had fun reading you! But, seriously, I think ADOM’s message was only about some international orgs in Geneva, not with Wall Street or even UN SG. I dare say though that your guess-a-scenario is a rather good one. Well, it’s so good that I hope that if the TPTB read it, they will think about implementing it.

NJKME – at 06:58

FrenchieGirl - at 06:31

Good Morning (not sure what time it is in Geneva). I had just as much fun interpreting ADOM’s message. I wasn’t sure about posting it since I thought it might be considered somewhat U.S. centric and I’ve seen some sentiment on this site that is put off by that. I actually grew up in Newfoundland, a province on the east coast of Canada and do know there is a world outside of the American border.

By the way I think I knew who ADOM is. ;)

Edna Mode - 23:23 I agree that things are speeding up. One major flag I’m looking for is some indication that my company is *doing* something. I work for a large international firm and although they’ve put up a webpage on pandemic planning (hasn’t been modifed since May) and have done some table top exercises I’ve yet to see an indicator such as IT given the heads-up to get everybody ready to work at home by issueing laptops or allowing us to bring desktops home, getting everybody VPN access etc. That to me would be a “real” red flag. Any other workers out there seeing this type of activity yet?

Malachi – at 07:45

My hubby is in IT albiet for a small state agency and they havent done diddly to prepare so I guess we’re safe ;)Now that I have had a Duck primer I may be able to read their next message more clearly.Maybe!Being around for awhile made me aware that Duck is to be trusted.

Argyll – at 08:24

As I reread ADOM’s message and the many interpretations, I was immediately reminded of the post by Anon in NH in the Checkmate thread. Maybe there is some common ground? What came to mind were the instructions that are forthcoming …

Also, I thought I read somewhere that the CDC, HHS and DHS were in talks as to who would make ultimate pandemic recommendations. I believe I read that on a news report, but cannot remember which one. The DHS Critical Infrastruture Report is very good.

Argyll.

Shaz – at 08:28

I know that things are hotting up here in Northern Ireland. As a nurse I know the hospitals have been prepared since last winter. Old buildings set to be demolished have been prepared and are sitting ready with beds made up with linen and equipment. Because of the political situation we have always had excellant disaster planning anyway. The only problem is lack of specialised equipment, funding comes from London so they aren’t taking it as seriously and not putting money through. Plans are in place to cancel all routine surgeries and routine admissions for investigations, to free up doctors and equipment. Staff are expected to take on multiple roles e.g receptionists to act as carers, doctors to make up beds. From June all medical facilities have carried a pamphlet and a booklet on Avian flu’ for patients to take home. My GP told me on Thursday that the Dept of Health are posting them out to everyones home next week. http://www.dhsspsni.gov.uk/ I spoke to my GP about it and he is terrified. Doesn’t want to think about it. He claims that he is prepared medically and personally but you can never be truely prepared. Because he will be a first attender, the buck falls to him and he isn’t going to be able to save everyone and this fills him with trepidation. People he has looked after all their lives.

20 November 2006

Are we there yet – at 12:16

Bump

help – at 17:07

I don’t know what thread to place this request on so here goes:

I do not seem to be able to open the OSHA avain flu guidelines that were posted 11/14. I saved the link but now it just says, document damaged and cannot be repaired. Could someone please direct me to an active link?

Thanks enza

enza – at 17:24

I even tried the DOL website…

KimTat 17:47

http://tinyurl.com/yjlaxl

Is this it

enza – at 18:09

It was a document in pdf with specific guidelines, the link is ‘broken’. Is this another one of those blink or you’ll miss it docs? Like the 12 week preps? I’m trying not to reach for a tin foil hat.

KimTat 18:42

enza – at 18:09 I got it and saved it. I clicked on a link in the tinyurl above. If you still can’t open it, I can always email it somewhere.

KimT

enza – at 20:20

Got it. Thanks KimT

janetn – at 20:47

Anon-22 Somehow Im not comforted by the news that TPTB are getting the news from the Wiki. If we are the market and the leading source for info, were in trouble. Whenever we have a outbreak or cluster days are spent trying to deciepher the tea leaves. The fact that this is considered by TPTB as the place to get the latest info is scary. Id somehow hoped they had a better handle on things

janetn – at 21:06

Anon-22 Somehow Im not comforted by the news that TPTB are getting the news from the Wiki. If we are the market and the leading source for info, were in trouble. Whenever we have a outbreak or cluster days are spent trying to deciepher the tea leaves. The fact that this is considered by TPTB as the place to get the latest info is scary. Id somehow hoped they had a better handle on things

anon_22 – at 22:39

janetn – at 21:06

True.

OTOH, governments and bureaucracies are not known for creativity. And we don’t have time to wait for them to change. Formal institutional changes usually take too long. In the context of a pandemic, we are all in it together.

Plus they have other expertise that we don’t have. So I see this as a co-operative venture. We all do what we can.

Wolf – at 22:46

anon_22 – at 22:39

I’m pretty sure they’re studying us as much as we’re studying them.

On the fence and leaning – at 23:05

Here it goes. I was poking around the DOD site today and found a page with informational brochures for DOD personnel. One was for service members so I went there and clicked on the one marked FLYER: Protecting Yourself from Avian Flu: Health Advice for Service Members Involved in Animal Culling and Disease Management and Eradication Activities. It was updated October 13. I have been reading a lot on here about the embassy getting word to prep for 12 weeks vs. 2 so I thought I might find something. It was just the basic ‘wash your hands, cook your food, report illness’ yada yada yada. BUT, the first sentence caught my eye. It states, “The Defense Departmen’s mission during this outbreak of avian flu is to preserve combat capabilities….” and “DoD personnel have been called on to assist…” I have been lazy about reading the news so maybe I am jumping at shadows but I have a few questions. Maybe you can help. 1. When the flyer states ‘during THIS outbreak’ of avian flu, what exactly are they refering to? 2. Has there been any news about DOD/military helping with chicken/farm yard round ups? Anywhere? 3. Is it possible this link is for a flyer that will be sent out a later day or is there some soldier somewhere reading over this flyer after a long day of dragging bags of chickens to the fire pit?

Here is the link. Please check it out. Actually, there is a LOT of information on this site, including a 38 page DOD response plan. Sobering. https://fhp.osd.mil/aiWatchboard/servicemembers.html

INFOMASS – at 23:12

With respect to who knows more: Surely “they” know withheld sequences? The Naval Medical Research Units (NAMRU) are well located and probably know more than WHO. I do not know how well their findings are disseminated through the government, however. If someone from CDC or Homeland Security could tell us, that would be of interest. As Madam Spinner almost suggested, some intelligence agencies may also have assets deployed. Overall, I expect they check us to see if they missed anything but have more complete data. On the other hand, if we know almost as much as they do and are almost in the same boat, I would say we are all low in the water, to mix several metaphors.

bgw in MT – at 23:43

Hah! “Reading the tea leaves” is what I call it myself when I’m reading this thread. It’s also a great term for what they do over in the Indonesia Outbreaks thread when they consult with each other. How I admire them for their diligence and their insight.

Clawdia – at 23:47

There’s an entire thread here on the Wiki about the DoD information, from yesterday.

21 November 2006

anon in this case – at 09:35

Perhaps this is totally irrelevant, but since this is a rumor thread…

My husband just got a new job working part-time for a major finanacial center (aka credit union) The process took a while and included background checks, lots of paperwork, etc. He started last week and was asked after day one if he would consider moving to fulltime during the next year (he said yes).

Then, after an unexpected meeting of the “higher ups” on Friday, all of the part-time and temporary workers were let go. They were told that the “higher ups” had decided to “streamline” the organization — although they had apparently authorized the hiring of several new people just weeks before, and had earlier said they would need some of the part-timers to move to full-time soon. My husband’s immediate boss was completely flabergasted.

So, I have to wonder — what news did the “higher ups” receive that suddenly changed their course? Why did they feel the need to act so swiftly? As this is a financial institution, I can’t help but think it has something to do with news that might seriously effect the economy and markets.

Perhaps this is totally unrelated, but when I heard of possible announcements from TPTB, I have to wonder.

Pixie – at 09:43

anon in this case – at 09:35

I think your post is very relevant. If it were internal corporate considerations causing this abrupt change, there would be internal discussions about the causes, at least rumors about them, that your husband’s boss would be able to tap into. There are usually rumblings of these kinds of decisions within companies before they happen, if they are caused by internal factors. If they are caused by external considerations that only a few are privy to, the changes you note can come as quite a surprise and the reasons only come to light later.

cottontop – at 09:47

anon-

It is interesting. However, it is really hard to not be suspicious, but we have to keep things in perspective. I don’t blame you for thinking this, and for all we know, it could be related. Who can know at this point what is really going on? Thanks for posting that.

cottontop – at 09:52

I have sent an e-mail to Holly Deyo, inviting her and Stan to pay a visit to the Fluwiki. For those of you who are unfamiliar with the Deyo’s, check out their website, found under the Websites for Prepardness Supplies, near top of title. I think the two websites can compliment each other nicely, and perhaps they will post a link to the wiki. Will see what happens.

KimTat 10:00

On the fence and leaning – at 23:05 I read that information too.

I’ll talk with my BIL on Thursday to see if he has any data, he does something top secret and he is very good at keeping things secret as is my sister who is not prepping. sigh. Last time I talked with them seriously about this, they informed me they would be ok, the military would take care of them. she tried to convince me to apply for a civilian job recently, she slipped and said I would be safer but wouldn’t elaborate.

My guess is they are as convinced as the rest of us that PI is moving along and they have been and are continuing to work on creating and disseminating the information, its prudent to get the info out now then when TSHTF locally. I don’t think they expected the intense scrutiny of every document they created to get out so quickly to the masses.

UTmomat 10:02

I have a good friend living in the Eastern US. Her husband is a HCW and the entire staff of their facility was recently informed that in the event of a pandemic, there will be NO Tamiflu for them. Period.

Now I realize that there will be a severe shortage of anti-virals, but wouldn’t common sense dictate the importance of keeping health care providers well and working? Does anyone wonder if the US Govt. simply doesn’t think that the Health Care system will be salvagable so they aren’t going to waste their limited resources on it? Are they sending a message to HCW to save themselves so they will be available after the pandemic?

22 November 2006

On the fence and leaning – at 12:52

bump

Clawdia – at 13:10

I think the message they are sending is that all the Tamiflu will be needed by the military and the other branches of the government.

Health care providers should go to the front of the line as far as receiving anti-virals and vaccine (if and when there is a vaccine).

On the fence and leaning – at 13:15
DennisCat 13:17

Flu pandemic plan would deny intense care to very sick, aged

Ontario strategy directs scarce resources to patients more likely to survive

TORONTO - Ontarians more than 85 years old, as well as patients who are extremely ill and unlikely to recover, won’t get aggressive medical care aimed at saving their lives during a pandemic, according to the province’s emergency plan for dealing with a widespread influenza outbreak.

http://tinyurl.com/y7loc7

Pixie – at 13:19

DennisC - at 13:17

I thought you should know that when I see your name on the “New Rumors” thread, and it is at the top of the page, I think “oh no, not Dennis!!! Not on the rumors page!!! No, no!!! And my blood pressure rises a couple of notches while I wait for the page to load. :-)

DennisCat 13:24

Pixie, sorry, I do not mean to alarm, just inform.

Doctors Are Reportedly Fleeing Iraq

“Iraq’s top doctors are under threat and are fleeing the country, leaving hospitals in the hands of medical students or junior physicians, an Iraqi lawmaker said Wednesday..They have been targeted since the fall of the regime,” she told The Associated Press during a visit to Austria. “Some of them have been kidnapped and found dead in the streets, some have been released after paying a ransom.”

She also told reporters earlier Wednesday that Iraqi hospitals face a shortage of medicines and are in dire need of new equipment..”

http://tinyurl.com/sum5j

Pixie – at 13:34

I’m just kidding around, Dennis! I count on your reports, they are great. Thanks for all your hard work!

On the fence and leaning – at 23:05

The defense department has been very proactive about AI for a while now. They do have very high priority on the list for vaccines, antivirals, and other protective measures as they will be tasked to help with pandemic issues as well as continuing with their usual obligation to protect us in the usual ways.

However, our servicemembers are also very concerned about their family members, and the defense department has had very useful information up for them for over a year now. Their sites are pretty good for general information. I have not noticed any big changes between the sites as they were a year ago and as they are now.

As far as recommendations on the culling of birds goes, the defense department was very quick to post information on how service members should deal with dead birds or culling operations as soon as the first infected and dead birds were found in Europe. Remember when there were quite a number of H5N1 infected birds found in Germany? The DOD put out advisories at that time to let its troops (and there are a lot of them in Germany) know what to do if they encountered dead birds or were asked to assist with the disposal of them. I think, at that time, that it was presumed that many more cases of dead birds could be encountered in Europe, and the DOD was prudently getting everyone ready for that eventuallity (that thankfully did not happen at that time). So, if there is a lot of information about culling birds or that kind of thing on the DOD website, I think it is just an extension of the information they were trying to get out when the “dead birds don’t fly” theory was first being proven to be a false one. To me it just says that they are aware, and ready.

need to know – at 14:51

I was told by family physician that they can give no prescriptions of Tamiflu* to anyone right now, as Govt. is stockpiling all of it. Kind of scary. Is tamiflu known to work with BF ? Also..is FAMVIR of any help to combat BF ? I know it is for Virus’

diana – at 15:40

Just read a scam on my e-mail, comes up blank if I try to print it out. From Ghana. 9,300,000 in escrow of misplaced funds, and I am the only person an honest kind man who loves his family by name of Koma, will ever offer it to. All I have to do is contact him, and work with him. Who do you report this sort of scam to? It has been a very interesting day. Why are people still trying to get Tamiflu, wouldn’t Relenza be better?

NJ Jeeper – at 15:53

This scam has been aroung for years, and most of us have been offered these funds if you give him either your bank account number or wire some good faith money. Don’t have an opinion on Tamiflu or Relenze as to whether they would work or not. Lot’s of debate on this and you really can’t get if from a reliable source anyway.

Bird Guano – at 16:05

UTmom – at 10:02 I have a good friend living in the Eastern US. Her husband is a HCW and the entire staff of their facility was recently informed that in the event of a pandemic, there will be NO Tamiflu for them. Period.

Now I realize that there will be a severe shortage of anti-virals, but wouldn’t common sense dictate the importance of keeping health care providers well and working?


Continuity of government via the military trumps civilian casualty concerns.

Get used to it now and get your adjustment reaction out of the way.

Any supplies will FIRST go to continuity of government operations, then trickle down to the civilian population.

It’s already codified in contingency plans and law.

Reality bites.

Bird Guano – at 16:07

INFOMASS – at 23:12 With respect to who knows more: Surely “they” know withheld sequences? The Naval Medical Research Units (NAMRU) are well located and probably know more than WHO.


Maybe via human intelligence assets.

Maybe Not.

Remember NAMRU was kicked out of Indonesia over a year ago.

They no longer have the visibility into the situation they once did.

INFOMASS – at 17:14

Bird Guano: Point taken, but can anyone tell us who DOES have the withheld sequences? I assume that the US government (CDC?) can get any WHO information, but I do not know if the reverse is always true. Also, if Chinese scientists are withholding sequences, they might be harder to get than some in, say, Egypt or Turkey. The only small comfort at this point is that there is no epidemiological evidence I know of of sustained and efficient H to H.

FrenchieGirlat 17:22

Clawdia – at 13:10, Bird Guano – at 16:05. One intelligent, well read and curious, US soldier, small rank, just back from theatre, was told that if he saw a dead bird, not to go near it. Period. No other bird flu information _at all_. If they keep Tamiflu for the military, I would suppose this soldier will not get it, but the high ranking ones will. Just like front line nurses, little soldiers are (still, nowadays) considered expendable by the hierarchy - they’re trained to give their lives without asking questions… And I’m going to have another adjustment reaction at that, I thought the world had become a little more civilized in the last 60-odd years, and it ain’t so, obviously.

Clawdia – at 18:53

FrenchieGirl- Yep, I think you’ve got it. High echelon military, highly placed government folks . . . and none for the peons, whether they be civilian or military. Expendable, yes.

I had wondered if they were telling soldiers in country anything about H5N1 - I guess you’ve answered that, and it’s the answer I would have expected, although not desired.

Strip away the veneer, I’m afraid, and we’re really not very civilized at all.

Meserole in FL – at 19:05

I’m not sure that prioritizing the military is a bad idea. My biggest concern is the ramifications of civil unrest on the general [law-abiding] population. I want to know that we will have healthy soldiers on duty to deter would-be criminals.

The bald truth is that we have no real hope of any pharmaceutical making a big difference at this point, right? Whether you’re a HCW or a mother tending to a sick child, the odds of catching and surviving the flu are about the same. If you have to deal with widespread civil unrest along with the flu, it could easily become overwhelming and could result in greater numbers of casualties.

Just thinking out loud.

ANON-YYZ – at 19:28

Bird Guano – at 16:07

NAMRU has been invited back into Indonesia. I see reports in the Indonesian news threads quoting NAMRU labs testing the samples. They no longer wants to wait for test results from the WHO reference labs in Hong Kong. This was announced together with the release of Indonesian sequences. WHO labs at CDC will also get the samples.

NAMRU site

http://preview.tinyurl.com/eezsj

23 November 2006

anon_22 – at 10:31

25 November 2006

MaMaat 14:24

Continued the New Rumors thread from here on to the new forum. The link is http://www.newfluwiki2.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=268.

Closed and Continued – at 17:04
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