Continued from here
BB, that could probably be the most famous quote of all: “Continued from here…”
:-)
Endless speculation about the unknowable is pointless. Prepare to the extent that makes you feel comfortable.then get a hobby.
NW
Nature is the ultimate terroristthe human terrorists are pretenders, nothing else
Tom DVM
They will hear you if you speak softly. H5N1 is the big stick you carry… (snip) … Remember, your kids always hear you when you whisper, but dont hear a thing when you yell.
mj
That is the message i got from the Safe America Conference I got it from Dr. Nabarro, HESS Oil, Homeland Security, CDC, Motorola and a host of other major players that hold their money tighter than they hold their childrens hands when the cross the street.
They are spending money.
-Goju
Be friendly. Be patient. Be helpful. Be aware that if they have any pandemic related responsibilities, they are now either going through or will soon be going through their first adjustment reactions. Be a resource, not a burden.
anon_22
Elder Berry at 11:47 Prepping is definitely a good idea. I am a prepper and I agree 100%. I am not suggesting taking a break from prepping, I am suggesting taking a break from worrying and a sense of inevitable dread. It is not healthy.
“To do nothing is unacceptable… to promise protection is unethical.” Mike Osterholm CIDRAP
Elder Berry on sky is not falling thread:
Yikes! Sorry about that.
The litmus test will be looking into your childrens and your neighborhood childrens faces and saying, I did all that I could do, and knowing deep down inside whether youre telling the truth to yourself or not.
de Jure
NEMO at 10:20 We are a warped bunch! Where other people like to look out on their driveways and see a nice shiny new carwe like to look in our basements, mudrooms,pantries and see nice shiny white plastic buckets full of food lined up and stacked high!! Thats a new twist on beauty is in the eye of the beholder for sure!!
AVanarts at 10:23 to NEMO at 10:20 Im sorry, but I think you got that wrong. Beauty is in the eye of the bucketholder. LOL
sometimes its not that the sky is falling - its us who are jumping :-/
---lugon
Believe me, Id like to close my eyes and move on. After all, life is good right now. Id like to spend my money on a boat, motorcycle, hot rod, party barge, quads, toy hauler, RV, etc. A lot of people are spending their money this way and life is one big party. Too bad they dont know or dont want to know whats coming because those toys wont feed them.
In the mean time I have more preps to buy. Too bad Im missing the party but for me the sky is falling.
Spok
I dont think most people realize how radically the world has changed in the last ten years. We here are beginning to realize it. Most of the public still has the past in their minds eye.
Overpopulation and Crowding (human and animal), Global Warming, Pollution, Environmental Stress, Antibiotic Resistance, Emerging Diseases, Habitat Destruction (and and water), Accelerated Species Extinction (flora and fauna)-----And the rest we can only guess at (after all we are only 90 years from the horse and buggy days). As De Jure said, too many variables. And I would add not enough time. The Clock has run out.
Medical Maven…of course!!
Disappointing endingthey let everyone go home and take some pills and all was well, no mention of prepping.
no name - in regards to the recent Greys Anatomy premiere in the Jericho thread.
Yikes.
Mike
If we dodge one bulletwe should not on one hand be self-congratulatory and on the other hand be complacentwe are facing a machine gun!!
Tom DVM
…I think those of us who are pleasantly plumpsay twenty pounds overweighthave actually been subconciously prepping for years. /:0)
Tom DVM
How can the lotus blossom know it is beautiful? It cant know that, can it? We can see its beauty. We can tell each other about its color, shape, delicacy, and perfume. But the flower will never know that it pleases the world to have it live among us. We may even order our lives around the garden that the flower dominates and if we are lucky we may sit on a small bench and share hours of our time focused on its essential place in our life. To have and appreciate such beauty in life is a rare gift. Can you see the flower in a garden? Does the flower know what you feel? The world will not slow down long enough to know that the flower even exists. You will never even see the flower if you do not take the time to see life as it really matters. The flowers of all gardens only know that they must do what is in their nature. You do in life what you find to be the good, the true and the beautiful, how can you ever have self doubt on such a path? Does this not lead you to the flower?
eloquence by Dude.
I’ll have whatever Dude’s having!
Nice Dude.
It reminded me of the frog and the scorpion story.
Moeb - I am worried about best/worse case scenarios for a number of reasons. 1) the unkown: We have no idea how bad it will be in terms of infection/cfr rates. Right the CFR is truly frightening and we dont know if it will decrease. 2) society: society back then was far more capable of surviving difficult situations. If things get even remotely bad(eg. SOME food delvery disruptions, MINOR power outages) I think people will freak. God forbid they dont have cable TV for a week, let alone necessary medicines, etc. I got thru the LA riots and saw the very worst of people. 3)emotional fall-out: people back in 1918 were not immune to personal tragedy - losing a child was unfortuantely common. Large numbers of dead will effect our society for generations. 4)Economics: given our economc dependence on the world economy, the fall-out could last for years and years. We are at a stage where we have to do some serious savings for kids college funds AND the very likely scenario of having to take care of DHs aging and impoverished parents. No work for an extended period of time means we wipe out our savings and then what?
I hate the unknown!
This heartfelt statement from LauraB.
People can choose to encourage preparedness where they live. If the authorities do not listen, they can move to a place where intelligent planning is occuring. We cannot control the CFR, but we control our own destinys.
Monotreme
Speeking of Monotreme, notice the time taht he posted this:
Monotreme C at 00:13 Survival of the Preppiest or Do You Feel Lucky?
Pete Prepper and Louie Lucky were college roomates. Pete became a successful accountant and lives in Betaville. Louie dropped out of school (too many keggers) and became a used car salesman in Widgetville.
Betavilles major employer was PetPsyU (Pet Psychic University), the foremost University for educating Pet Psychics. Betaville was also known for making Bobbleheads of celebrities. Widgetvilles main industry was a company that makes a key component for nuclear power plants. Many of the inhabitants have highly specific jobs at the Nukes R Us plant.
Pete, as his name implied, was an assiduous prepper. He read Flu Wiki and the other Flu Boards daily. He had stored enough food for 2 years, every solar gadget known to man, and an arsenal larger than Belgiums. When Pete spoke to his old friend Louie on the phone, he urged Louie to prepare for a pandemic. Louie laughed and said if one happens he will come to Petes house. Pete said nothing but quietly resolved Over my dead body!.
One day Pete noticed the Flu Wiki swan was feet up. After that, the internet went down. Pete called Louie and told him This is it. Louie laughed, lit a cigar, and poped open a cold one before watching American Idol. Pete sealed his secretly fortified house. and waited.
Unbeknownst to either Pete or Louie, federal planners had drawn up a list of high priority cities that would receive a small cache of critical supplies. Bulk tamiflu had been manufactured in secret government labs for a year. Huge orders of MREs had been prepared. N100s, PPARs and respirators had been stockpiled. These supplies were quickly deployed in the key cities once sattelites showed villages going dark in China.
Widgetville was one of these key cities. Betaville was not.
The hospital in Betaville went down within a week of the first case in town. Essential services went down two weeks after that. Hungry Pet Psychics went door-to-door looking for food, but were given pause at Petes house when his Claymores starting going off. Pete had plenty of ammo, thanks to an old thread on the subject he had read on Flu Wiki.
Meanwhile, back at Widgetville, Louie received instructions to SIP. As he hadnt done any prepping, he was initially concerned about what he would eat. But shortly after the announcement regarding pandemic onset on the TV, some nice National Guardsmen came by with a pallet of MREs which they dropped off at his, and everyone elses house. The hospital at Widgetville was fully supplied with Tamiflu. Although shifts were long and a number of people did die of the panflu, HCWs stayed on the job because they had sufficient PPE to keep themselves reasonably safe. They also knew that their families were safe at home with plenty of food.
One day Pete started to experience some pains in his side. After consulting his Home Health Book, he realized he had appendicitis. With a sick feeling he picked up the phone to dial 911, without much hope. Of course, no-one answered. Not being one to give up, he pulled out his Austere Surgery book, took out his medical supplies and planned to operate on himself. Positioning a mirror just right, Pete bit down on piece of wood and began to open his abdomen with a Ginsu knife. He did a pretty good job, in spite of the intense pain. Unfortunately, his anatomy was slightly different than that depicted in the Austere Surgery book, and he nicked his Inferior Vena Cava. As the blood began shooting out, his last thought was Oh, shucks.
Coincidentally, on the same day, Louie also felt a pain in his chest. He was convinced he was having a heart attack and called the Widgetville 911. An ambulance arrived shortly, staffed by paramedics outfitted with PPAR. They gave him a quick H5N1 test, found him negative and took him to the hospital for further evaluation. His heart was fine. Upon close questioning, he admitted he had spiced up his MRE with alot of Tobasco sauce. A classic case of heartburn. He was returned to his home with a stern warning not to waste the time of the first responders or HCWs again.
After the pandemic was over, Louies Used Car business thrived as new cars would not be generally available for another 5 years. Louie died 30 years later, ironically of a heart attack. His 4 wives and 10 children attended his funeral. He was interred with full honors in a magnificiant masoleum.
Petes body was eventually found and deposited in a mass grave. The only record of his existence was in dusty archive of Flu Wiki found in a few research libraries. Under the handle ImReady!, he had once asked a question about how much lard to use in a dish in the Beans and Rice thread.
60 years latter, Louies many descendants resettled Betaville. They were so numerous that the town was renamed to Luckyville. No-one found it ironic.
I meant: Notice the time it was posted : )
From Science Teacher: “Reaching out to others to help spread awareness and information is the ultimate words to action effort. We can each take a chunk of what we have learned here and give it back in the reality of own personal lives. This wiki is the bridge to make this happen.”
At this point in time itfs H5N1s world, we just live in it. But we have an underground movement started, its called the fluwikie.
enza
From fredness at 02:16 (Fluwiki communication in a pandemic thread)
I did a search on eham.net for the word pandemic and found this. It looks very interesting.
A Complex Contingency: A lethal and highly-contagious virus gradually begins to spread around the globe. Infection rates are high, deaths are frequent, and no vaccine is available. Cities all over the world fall under quarantine. Emergency services and medical centers are stressed and national government agencies, affected just as severely as the cities themselves, cannot provide assistance.
And then the situation goes from bad to worse.
I know I keep repeating myself, but Im going to use exactly the same example that I used before to challenge those of you who think 12% (or something in that range) CFR is mild.
Hong Kong is one of the worlds most advanced economies. It has more millionaires per square mile than anywhere else in the world. It has a high literacy rate, an extremely low rate of people dependent on welfare. It has one of the best public healthcare systems, and it is small enough for policies to be implemented rapidly and effectively. It has a population of just under 7M.
SARS infected 1733 people there. Within weeks, they had to close ALL hospitals to non-urgent care. All schools were closed. Hotel occupancy went down to single digits. Airports and restaurants were deserted. Unemployment rose to historic highs, and a GDP drop of >2% resulted. In the end, 300 people died.
An influenza pandemic virus with a clinical attack rate of 25% and a CFR of 2% will kill >30,000 people in that city in that same timespan.
How does one calculate the impact of something that kills 100 times the number who died during SARS?
And that is only with a CFR of 2% and an attack rate at the lowest end of estimates.
The biggest flaw of almost all national pandemic planning so far is not in underestimation of the numbers, but in underestimation of what those numbers mean.
anon 22
DennisC at 20:30 0n his PPF#: I was down to a 3 but it just popped up to a 4 after seeing the new Thailand death. They missed H5N1 in the first 9 tests then they finally got it right. The last listing the Thai government had was, Cumulative number of patients under surveillance are 4,976 cases AI case site has gone off the air and the last listing (24th) and of which 7 cases are under investigation is not giving me a good feeling. I know I am worrying too much. But if they are just now announcing H5N1 in a death from Aug 10, misdiagnosed it 9 times, and have thousands of patients under surveillance, that is exactly how I though the start would be.
From above, the quote should read:
At this point in time it’s H5N1’s world, we just live in it. But we have an underground movement started, its called the fluwikie.
enza
FROM THE HOUSEWIFE THREAD Visitor at 16:55 said: Im fat with a masters degree, PHD and a six figure salary and have never been a housewife. I know one thing, fat or not, I couldnt do a housewife job for all the tea in China. Should a pandemic strike, I would bet that it is the housewives who will keep the family going and will find more strength and resources than the rest of us. Given a choice between some of the high flyers that I work with, I know who I would rather have on my side.
NS1 at 17:17 responded to Visitor this way: Youve made an extremely valuable assessment that many here may have missed . . . the strong connection between the daily work of managing a family (the practice, if you will) and the ability to secure a familys future in times of difficulty (the game).
My coaches always said, You play like you practice!, loudly and repeatedly, when we failed to perform a required drill at full speed with full heart. Coaches arent always philosopher/poets, but they are frequently warrior/taskmasters and the master logisticians of the world. So dont giggle just yet, please.
In PF51, parents in many families will be thrust into the role of the starting lead player in a game for which they have never even practiced. In fact, they dont even know the general rules of the game because theyve abdicated responsibility to the daycare provider, the school or the kind grandmother. I use the word, game, euphemistically because we all understand the deadly seriousness of this potential pathogen.
Ill make a firm prediction, the first that Ive cared to make on this board in many hundreds of posts.
The families that have a consistent parent at home who knows the children and is supported by the spouse will have attack rates and a CFRs that are at a minimum 25% lower than families that have two parents who work outside the home and spend less than 2 hours per day of face-to-face time with their children. Regardless of economic strength.
In the middle to higher economic groups with a parent at home full-time, I expect the reduction of attack rate and CFR to approach 40%. Resources and will power allow a more powerful solution.
Start calculating and realise that the engineering design and the brute power required to put a pillar in place when a building is falling is more than most projects can bring to bear.
Those families that have the pillar of a full-time parent in place now will be in a much more admirable position if PF51 arrives.
They keep telling us to get in touch with our bodies. Mine isnt all that communicative but I heard from it the other day after I said, Body, howd you like to go to the six oclock class in vigorous toning? Clear as a bell my body said, Listen witch do it and die.
NoFluingAround.
Bronco Bill:
“Sorry, Sarge. I got distracted here at work and had to wait to post.”
LOL, I hate it when that happens :)
At least I think its you, but it could have been your other brother anonymous or any one of 50 of your cousins with the same name. ;^)
Spirit In The Wind
Sorry, Spirit In The Wind…it should have read spiritinthewind.
What exactly is mental hygiene?
New York City is very old. The name of the Health Department there comes from a time when mental illness was separated from physical illness. Frankly, I think they should change the name to represent 21st century understanding of mental illness, but then again, theyve got a commissioner who would embarass the citizens of 17th century New York.
Monotreme
if this killer virus hits, the countrys infrastructure will fall apart. The hospitals will be overloaded. Most of us dont realize how interdependent we are for food. In a pandemic, people would get sick, the gas supply would stop, food would not be there.
Recent Dr. Webster quote….by HighdesetAZ
…the reasons I am concerned about the present situation with regard to H5N1 and the potential of a pandemic have nothing to do with what so-called experts are saying or not saying.
It has much more to do with the following facts-
- H5N1 has demonstrated an accelerated infection of humans;
-H5N1 has (contrary to what the experts said beforehand) demonstrated not only that it can infect humans but that it is now capable of human to human transmission, and that in the course of doing so it is capable of progressive adaptation.
- The present Case Fatality Rate for H5N1 infection in Indonesia is around 75% or better. Lest you think the US would do better, I remind you that we have only around 4 million treatment courses of Tamiflu available in our stockpile.
- At least 3 of the last 6 influenza pandemics we know of were reputed to be as bad or worse than 1918.
-At present, the US can produce only 1020 million doses of vaccine per year once the strain is known, and there will be a 46 month delay in releasing vaccine, if one can be produced. Presently H5N1 is killing the chicken eggs before vaccines can be produced.
There are no experts on this, and I hope that there never will be! Hope, however, is not a plan, and what the FACTS tell me is that I face a very serious potential threat to me, my family and my friends….
LMWatBullRun
I actually find it more fascinating to watch the people that are watching the show. I think to myself, Wow, they are hypnotised and transfixed that easily! I should have been a T.V. producer. I would be ruling the world by now!
JWB
Even for us who have been immersed in this exercise for many months, when the pedal hits the metal on hard choices, it is hard to maintain absolute belief in the inevitable threat. The seductive tug of our current reality is overwhelming and everpresent.
Medical Maven
JWB. The only pencil I have every used was a HBwhat the heck is an 8-D pencil?
Tom DVM
8-D That aint a pencil! That be my smiliy face! Heres one with hair $8-D
JWB
Surge capacity is a joke and I no longer discuss it. It wont happen unless they lay towels on the floors and call them beds. BTW, Good Luck!
Leo7
H5N1 vs. Humanity-Which is the unthinking, unrelenting juggernaut? Who is debilitated by fear, indecision, and incompetence? Who will attack its own kind? Who needs a regular supply of water, food, and shelter? Which feeds on ever ready flesh and flies on the wind? Who adapts slowly on the evolutionary scale? Which mutates at hyperspeed to meet the environmental demands?
We are a rabble (even under the best of circumstances) as compared to H5N1.
Medical Maven
mutters something about compassion, the natural tendency to bind together in the face of adversity and the will to do what must be done regardless of probable death
moeb’s answer to Medical Mavens comments above.
A very wise and elder fluwikian once remarked that some who post here have a flawed view of what a pandemic will be like. They have made plans for staying at home for 6 months or so, and after that they will turn on the TV, watch their favorite show, and later go out to Starbucks for coffee. It will be bittersweet, because some of their friends will be gone but then again they wont have to wait in a long line.
The actual reality of a pandemic that even starts to approach the CAR and CFR numbers we so easily toss about is beyond comprehension.
Hillbilly Bill
IMO they are conceding that the battle is lost before it has begun. Not a nice thought. Sun Tzu would be pleased with our non-sentient little friend.
The Sarge
We get Samuel L. Jackson and start with Weve gotta get this Mutha F*@#ing Bird Flu off this Mutha F*@#ing planet!
anonymous, suggesting a public service announcement to raise panflu awareness.
DARWIN at 22:08 How has it become resistant to tamiflu if H5N1 has not had SIGNIFICANT H2H ? Or are people feeding their chickens the tamiflu in a desperate attempt to save their live stock ?
great question.
That eaerosols is a way of infection is clear. What is not clear is that this means that it will crawl into your eyes, ears or your under your toenail.. Did not the study antcipate the differneces between upper and lover airways in conjunction with droplets sice? Yes. Not a single word about faceshields being inadekvate. I am not saying that a pair of skigoogles dont belong in your preps,(they are in mine) but this is still not a virus from outer space
from the Health Minister of Indonesia.
.Health Minister Siti Fadillah Supari said any conclusion on human-to-human spread could not be based on small cases. You cannot just declare there is human-to-human (transmission) from a doctors examination. It may need thousands of cases first,…
Blue Ridge Mountain Mom at 15:32 Sometimes, this whole situation reminds me of one of those over dramatized Hollywood movies depicting a mega disaster. I think the common thread in those movies, and weve seen this common thread played out in real life with disasters like 9/11 and Katrina, is one that is depressingly being played out today.
The officials know that there is a potential problem, but theyre going to need more concrete data before alarming the public and disrupting the economy. Were not getting all of the information from scientists and government officials because they are more worried about their everyday pissing contests than being worried about the big picture.
Were not getting the MSM involved yet because of that pesky little word HOPE. When it boils right down to it, we are all on this flu wiki preparing for the worst, but HOPING for the best. TPTB are HOPING for the best case scenario. Hope is dangerous because it is not a plan, and it will keep the human spirit going far beyond a point than most people can imagine. Hope is awesome in that it allows people to survive and conquer insurmountable odds. but it will keep the blinders on TPTB until just as it is too late. It is a bittersweet irony that what has helped us make achievements and strides as a race will keep us searching until the bitter end for a solution. I fear we will be the monkey with his fist caught in the flu jar. We will be unable to release the flu problem long enough to get our hand out of the jar and give the alarm bell a tug.
Q A WHO spokesperson has called these new bird flu cases the mother of all clusters. What is your reaction to that?
May 25, 2006 ABC Health News
I think he was refering to the earlier one involving those 8 people.
Klatu - at 19:29 and cactus - at 20:52: Well, the mother of all clusters has finally given birth, it seems. That WHO spokesperson may have had it right.
Dennis in Colorado at 20:45 Eyeswideopen at 20:21 I think you will find that Mensa is pretty well represented here <grin>.
Tom DVM at 23:11 Im glad they have decided the seasonal flu vaccine might work for H5N1because it doesnt work for seasonal flu.
Tom, if you ever decide not to DVM, you could give ‘stand-up’ a go!!
Quote at 00:35-
Tom, I did not see this on the orginal thread, but I am grinning from ear to ear with a chuckle burbling out. You are a corker.
We didnt know then (nor we know now) how far the train was, whether it would get all the way to us or how fast it would be going if it did get to us. But we could feel the vibrations on the tracks and we knew enough about train wrecks of the past to worry. Now its almost two years later and the bird flu train has not arrived. But the tracks are vibrating more strongly, we can hear the engine noise more loudly and we know the train is in the vicinity, crashing through half the worlds poultry flocks, flicking off various other mammalian host species and the occasional human (251 at last count). We know much more about the virus than we did two years ago, but some of what we have learned is that what we thought we knew was wrong. Thats progress, but of a peculiar sort. Still no effective vaccine in production and no likelihood of significant quantities for several years, if then. Uncertain quantities of antivirals on hand and with uncertain efficacy. And public health systems still tottering on the edge, with social service systems weakened as well. These are gross failures of government, and those government failures are traceable to gross failures in leadership.
Revere at Effect Measure
Thanks DennisC
I hope you are right anonymous. The thing is, if people listen to the doom-sayers and the doom-sayers are wrong, people are left well prepared for any catastrophe, but if they listen to you and you are wrong they get to watch their children starve or worse.
Oremus
“Standard & Poors considers the likelyhood of this type of pandemic
[1918] re-occurring to be extremely low”
{Standard and Poors, “the world’s leading provider of independent investment research, indices and ratings” in 2005 when rating the Vita II mortality
bonds expiring 1.1.2010 }
DennisC at 15:41 said:
Santa Claus is real - I know for sure for I are one - I still believe that parents love their child, that children play make believe, that dreams can come true, that giving from your heart gives a warm feeling, that even on the longest and darkest night of the year there is hope, As I said, I have never had Santa let me down yet.
moeb at 09:59 — wait just a cotton picking minute.. paint my ego red, but I think if I survive Ill be quite handy at resurrecting civilization. Count on it! (smiles.. good morning)
“Medclinician wrote:
It is very important to realize that people from the the highest levels of government and their advisors and assistants are reading these forums. You are making history.”
Rick wrote:
“If WHO has adopted the New Zealand Pandemic Plan protocol as their template which includes monitoring the Internet, then I would not be surprized if the posts on such sights are frequently sampled to provide for better spin control.
We either make history, or we become history.”
__
“… down the telegraph wires would come these almost unbelievable stories”. 1918 Pandemic
Medical Maven at 13:20 on Anonymous Posts to a discourteous anon.
econ101 at 23:34 Wait till it goes pandemicIt will be like trying to grab hold of a nucluer reaction.
Medical Maven at 10:17 Another Anonymous at 10:12-There are no rules that say a person has to have a handle here.
There are no rules about passing gas at the dinner table either, but considerate people refrain from it.
Tom DVM at 09:47 Hi anonymous. Thanks for starting this thread. In all things, it is not good to have ying without yangyou can choose which one you go by.
At one time I was the contrarian, way out in left field. Authorities were saying 27 million, I was saying hundreds of millionsI didnt know about Dr. Osterholm or Dr. Webster or anyone else for that matter. I was my own one man army and it was mildly painful.
Now, your position is the contrarian oneand I am the mainstreamfunny how things work out.
I am grateful that you continue to balance things on flu wiki but you should give your personal reasons for feeling a mild pandemic or no pandemic is going to happenor if you use other scientists you must give also a defendable scientific argument on the facts as you know themI am not sure that has been happening so far.
My position is that we dont know but every indicator indicates that this will be in the more serious tier of pandemics and that history has now fully demonstrated that serious pandemics are the norm rather than the exception.
I dont think we are in for one pandemicI think we are in for a serious of 2 or 3 or more in the next twenty years.
Jumping Jack Flash at 11:14 to Oremus at 10:59 …….If I may, let me add a thought: The thought of defending my family from panflu or civil unrest for months or years, only to drown in my own bodily fluids, terrifies me.
But the thought of watching my children perish, from something I was warned about and chose to do nothing, well, that there horrifies me.
bgw in MT at 16:01
When more than one eminent expert has labeled the virus in question as the worst flu virus they have ever seen, (including the 1918 virus) Im going to think that it is LIKELY to be a severe pandemic.
If you dissuade even one person from prepping as much as they are able, then yes, you will be morally responsible for a death in the event of a severe pandemic.
“Lie…Deny…and then Act Surprised.
Canadian Broadcasting Corporation…on bureaucracy and agencies.
Meanwhile, back to fighting the long defeat.
Good luck to all of good will.
crfullmoon.
The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to its close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences.
Winston Churchill(1936)
Thanks to Snowhound 1
Medical Maven:
Hope is, indeed, not enough in the direst of times. You need an in-your-face attitude even as and when the worst happens. I suspect that is part of what I will find when I read that book “Deep Survival.” It is part of what I have found in myself in the darkest of times. A “new” mode of living and thinking will have to be REINSTITUTED by all would-be survivors.
And I will also muse that if you and yours must end, do so with courage and cheer because those energies will expire with the wind.
Inky:
It won’t be our supplies alone that save us—it will be tenacity, resourcefulness, and hope.
Tom DVM
I think everything that the World Health Organization states should immediately go to the rumour thread until the information can be confirmed by an independent scientist.
Titanic’s band
“One of the most famous stories of Titanic is of the band. On 15 April, Titanic’s eight-member band, led by Wallace Hartley, had assembled in the first-class lounge in an effort to keep passengers calm and upbeat. Later they would move on to the forward half of the boat deck. The band continued playing music even when it became apparent the ship was going to sink.
http://tinyurl.com/ge9tb http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RMS_Titanic
Does the music sound familiar?
anon at 16:08-Were you the anon just on the PPF thread? Trying to build a profile on you so that I can hold you to task, if I see some inconsistencies show up later. But if you were not that anon, what was your previous submission recently? Or are you totally new to this site, and the above is your first submission? Or are you the old gs with a better accent? (An inside joke if you are a new anon, a recent anon, or an anon with a poor memory, or an anon who just skims and does not take in detail well.
Medical Maven
Leo7 Theres a dichotomy in the words you write: 1. Youre worried about people who pay you no mind when you try to inform them and then if it comes youll shoot them. See?
and shortly after: Bluebonnet Where did we lose that sense of world community? Has capitalism taken us to a place where we no longer care for our world neighbors? Is this why we have so many horrendous acts of violence? Have we truly forgotten to love one another in the quest for the almighty dollar?
Sad, sad, sad.
inthehills at 20:39 velveeta.the glue that holds lutheran familys together. ---garrisson kieller
Spoon on avianflutalk.com It’s not so much the apocalypse… but the credit card bills ;-)
GREAT EXCHANGE: Texas Rose at 14:18 That reminds me-I need to crank up the El Cheapy radio I bought a couple weeks ago to see if it even works. Its still in the baghanging from the coat closet door handleIm nothing if not on top of things.<grin>
Watching in Texas at 14:21 Texas Rose - bless you for your candor and for making me feel less lonely in my perpetual state of disorganization when it comes to my preps;-)
Texas Rose at 14:26 I figure Im doing great just to be prepared. Nobody said anything about being organized.:D
JWB at 16:48 Dont forget to prep your mind. This isnt going to be a camping trip.
Ethics, it is all about ethics, and the lack thereof will be our total undoing. And the lack of ethics breeds and feeds incompetence. Ethical behavior impels you to go the extra mile to properly discharge your duties. You have a bunch of factotums at all levels going through the motions of protecting public health. It isnt that they dont know that they should be better informed. It is that they really dont give a damn. Too many people going through the motions and thinking about how little they can do to get by.
Medical Maven
Doctor says to dying patient, Dont worry, we are now much more able to track how fast you are dying.
anon 22
It’s long, but well written and another reason it would be nice if people would pick a handle so we could give them credit………
anonymous at 01:42 The Other Side Thread
Quite a topic,assuming, yet daring. Ive been reading FluWiki for exactly one year now, and I think its time I said Thanks.
If I and my family make it to the other side intact, I do owe it to many of you here. (And I do mean to make it -intact.) I havent contributed in many, many months, but I do try to check in at least once a week. I know that many of the old-timers are probably doing the same. Weve been down the adjustment road, weve been through the depression and panic. Were prepared as best we can be, and were ready as we can get. And we dont mean bring it on.
Ive loved the jokes and daily humor. The fantastic quotations that weve all forgotten about -that remind us what being human is all about. I found out the good that the internet can bring- and it made a doubting Thomas into a believer.
Some of these people are still currently posting and some have faded into the archives, but these are my Saints in this crusade. Take Notice.Number One: The Reveres, (keep doing it) but remember that we think both sides are crooks. Number Two: The Mods, God bless You. Thanks for giving up so much to listen to us.
And everyone else, in a somewhat alpabetical order- dont hold me to it Anon 22 (very wise person-i know youre a Pharmacist), All the Moms, (they speak from their heart), Bill, not enough can be said about you. You make us laugh, you make us think, you work tirelessly. Thank you so much. Bruce, The Many, Many Cats,(you know who you are), Eccles, Grace, Hillbilly, Lugon, MaMa (the One and Only), Maven, Monotreme, NS1, Niman(THANKS SO MUCH!), Path, and Urdar. There are so many others- Im only thinking off the top of my head so excuse me if Ive forgotten you.
OH MY GOD!- I did forget someone very specialTOM-DVM My Canadian, Veterianarian of choicethe voice of reason in any storm, The Man. Tomas, thank you for contributing nearly every single day. You will be a hero to me always. And to your readers. You will never never know how many you have saved. But you are my hero, and thank you from the bottom of my heart.(thanks to your dear wife also).
crfullmoon at 08:28 KimT, I made them mad with my questions, they made me mad with their answers
-That about sums up the pre-pandemic alert period.
crfullmoon
As the pandemic returns to the news in the coming month and fears rise again, additional people will begin to see the issue more clearly. This process will evolve and as it does, a growing number of people will begin the process of preparing for pandemic. Inevitably, the vast majority of people will not be prepared and have no clue what to do. This is in the nature of humankind and is one of the reasons this pandemic has the potential to be so devastating.
Dr. Gratton Woodson
I am not really sure if this goes here or not - but it is the closest thread I could find.
Here are a LOT of quotes from “experts” about H5N1. It is worth reading.
There are lots of quotes, here are a few: “It’s the most dangerous influenza virus that I’ve ever seen.” - Richard G. Webster
“The threat of a pandemic is the most important public health issue we face today. The signs are worrisome.” -Bruce Gellin, director of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services’ national vaccine program
“Day by day, alarm-bells seem to be ringing louder as new outbreaks are reported.” -Kofi Annan, UN Secretary General
“The U.S. Government has purchased only 4.3 million doses of Tamiflu…enough for just 1.5 percent of Americans.” -Fortune Magazine, Nov. 14, 2005
“In the face of a pandemic, the available supplies of antiviral drugs would be used up in days.” -Dr. Robert Webster, Infectious Diseases department of St. Jude
Timber:
1. A year ago, a lot of folks took my prepping recommendations as alarmist paranoia.
2. Six months ago, folks started telling me they were starting to stock up and talk to their loved ones.
3. Nowadays I regularly see mid-level bureaucrats in government and corporate America recommending people prep for a month or longer.
The CFR may not have changed, and Ive been convinced for several years that this was going to bite us, and bite hard, sometime. Now, however, were in better shape to have a significant number of folks come thru.
The work of FluWikians has made a difference. We aint where we should be, but we can take a punch to our collective solar plexus a whole lot better than we could when this effort was started.
Hats off to the mods and the rest of the folks who invested their reputations and bank accounts to help us all!
Any quotes from Europe?
diana at 18:31 Surviving Winter Without Power
“WE are married to our comforts, but can stand a separation if need be. “
Are you sure about this? Are those who earn 100k a year, live in 3,000 foot McMansions, those who need to consume hundreds of litres of fuel a week to get to work, the fittest people to populate a post pandemic world? The most worthy? Ahem, no.
Ottawa Guy
no name at 21:57 10/12/06
Bird flu is the ulitmate equal-opportunity killer.
Grace RN - this is like a mod, because the relevant thread had just been mercifully closed.
Monotreme - at 22:33 10/11/06
“…Fluwikians don’t panic, we lead”.
“If you can change it…change it (Prep ) If you can’t; ( people who don’t listen )…forget it.
We can only do so much.
“The amount of semi-professional rock throwers on this site absolutely amazes me.”
Are you giving a lesson?
Monotreme
I vote for packets for every citizen with antibiotics, antipyretics, and oral replacement powders to be available. Have packets put together for children based on weight. If allergic to antibiotics, provide substitutes with written guidelines for consumption. MRSA is bad, but failing to provide basic meds in an emergency would be worse. Its doable and were not talking a hundred pills. Were talking a normal dose for a respiratory condition. There are times when people must come first, not policies or guidelines.
Leo 7
“So, do I want to take 1.) the risk that a lot of people might say You are crazy! or do I want 2.) take the risk that when the pandemic hits a lot of those same people panic, starve, suffer, die
Quick moral decision making process: I take number one, rather being perceived as crazy than losing a lot of people I care for.”
orange-brown
“Bureaucrats see the present push to prepare for panflu
as a larger threat to their existance than the flu itself.
That is why there is so much bureaucratic inertia. “
LMWatBullRun
OK. This is a dream that I had some time ago, but it is becoming more relevant (to me at least).
It starts with me entering my dining room and seeing on the table a book that looks familiar. (This book only looks familiar to me in my dream, as if I had read it once, and have seen it discussed on TV). Without opening it I glanced up at the calendar to see what todays date is because the book begins with a specific date. The book is a published diary of a 12 year old girl. As I look at the calendar I realize that she started the diary ten years ago on this very day. Today is October 18th, 2016.
She started her diary on what would become known worldwide as The Day. She begins it by stating her reasons to start one: Things have suddenly become very scary. Her parents nightmares have come true, and the family sat down that evening for a very sobering talk.
Throughout the book she describes her parents early panflu deaths, and the accidental death of her older brother. I cant recall any details about those. But I do remember that in her extreme loneliness she lets a stray cat into her house, which leads to her downfall.
I vividly remember the last page. It was written on her last day, where she finally realizes that she will soon see her deceased family and with her last sentence she writes, God, I forgive you.
After waking up from that tear jerking nightmare I realized the parallels to Anne Franks diary and Alas Babylons The Day. I nearly fell off my chair when I saw the Alas Babylon thread. So for me, Ill be somewhat relieved when October 18th comes and goes. Itll mean somewhere a twelve year old girl doesnt have a reason for starting a diary.
JWB
Monotremes Fluwikians dont panic, we lead.
Goju at 23:08 M. Randolph Kruger says from effect measure blog:
My opinion? They are expecting high numbers and will not acknowlege it because to do so would cause a panic now. Answers? I havent got many except to say to prepare. No big answers from this end of the fence except to say think of it as ants. Lose the queen and they chose a new one. Lose the workers and they grow a new one. Hit that mother with a can of Raid and then tell me how many make it out.
H5N1 is a can of Raid.
This is insane 80% CFR Pandemic? Hell that is with hospital care!
We had a young new weatherman in our area. He had passed his weather exams with flying colors, but he couldnt predict the weather right in our area. He said we would have rain but the sun would shine and he said the sun would shine but wed get rain. The thing was, our area didnt go by the rules of weather and experienced weather forecasters knew that and based their predictions on what had happened in the past when the weather patterns were similar. When the young new weatherman realizied this, he bagan to study the past weather in our area and soon his predictions became more accurate. Now Im not saying throw out the science books but the nature of nature is based on the past. If it were not, there would be no instinct in animals. We too are animals and even though we have intelligence to figure out the science of things, we also have the instinct to tell us to look at the past. When I look at the past, I dont see how hard it is for that damn bug to mutate, all I can see is that it DOES and we had better get ready for it.
Reader
Non-pharmaceutical interventions and contingency planning should have been started with the public first.
At least we’ve had the time we’ve had, but waiting for ordered magic solutions with promised money isn’t going to get us through a pandemic. (There still is no vaccine against HIV.)
crfullmoon (on Effect Measure)
anon 58 (my bolds)
I encourage everyone as part of your preps to make calls to local and state governments, schools, colleges, utilities and ask if they are prepared. If not advise them no plan is not an option. Follow up later. Every voice matters now- not later. Be sane - be calm - be vocal. You are an asset - they need your help even if they dont know it.
Average Concerned Mom
I just wish I could barter with someone. Like, Ill can some meatballs for you if youll hook up a marine battery-inverter-transformer-decoder-ring-photon-torpedo thingy for me. Wish I knew someone around here who wante dthat kind of a trade (-:
Cheers to all and to Mother Nature skipping this one past our heads.
Quartzman.
captain1:
It is getting to the point where my husband asks me every evening How many were run off with to the hospital with the hot high and breathless today?
Concerning a ‘signal’ when pandemic occurs:
Milo at 22:37 I like the alert signal:
$!@& %#^#@!! ITS STARTED! *(%$#!!! I HONESTLY THOUGHT IT WOULDNT REALLY HAPPEN BUT IT &$%^@*&$% IS!!!
That just sort of sums it up in my mind.
Are you a gambler?
Imagine a virus that infects one in three and kills half it infects.
Are you still a gambler?
uk bird
I know you were being serious, but I got a laugh out of reading your post because the ratio of sickness to death (1 in 3) meant that 1/2 of a person would die.
Maybe we should increase the ratio numbers so that at least a whole person would die.
I’m Workin’-on-it
Petticoat Junction
(in response to Bluebonnet’s post of the Texas Medical Center’s Preparedness Response Guide)
The one thing that really jumps out at me is the centralization of communication and standards among different parts of the med center, community health providers, and city/county officials. If they can really pull that off, I think it will go a long way to reducing chaos and, hopefully, some panic (at least the panic that would result from seeing the health grid go down). I think survival chances in your area have gone up.
So Ottowan is referring to the economic gain to developed countries of money taken out of developing countries. Im not sure, but that would be things like, if I had money invested in a sneaker company in Indonesia, I might sell the stock at the first sign of trouble, and use the money to buy stock in a country in the developed world.
Which is ridiculous, if I had any stock, Id sell it right now and buy a woodburning stove.
A lesson in common sense from Average Concerned Mom
In my opinion, if you want a recipe for instant anarchy, provide young parents with no medical support of any kind coupled with no antibiotics etc. and by extension no hope. Tom DVM
lugon:
In this intriguing, chaotic, deeply disturbing field, maybe the difference between someone new to the field and an expert is that the newcomer says I dont know, and the expert says we dont know.
When the time comes we will all know, until then there is joy in the chase for knowledge, at least I enjoy it even if others may feel dread, but I am not a worrier.
diana
meanwhile with the stage set but quiet in terms of immediate danger.. the crowd drifts about aimlessly. will it wont will it wont it. did I waste money on that solar panel.. am I a dupe for believing in this.. (smiles) does it really matter with a reality check and the actual CFR (at the moment)
moeb
Im in disbelief that for months Ive been staring at the swans as soon as the page loadsand it hasnt actually MEANT anything????
Jody
Monotreme at 00:41
The problem for us is that experts who arent experts but who are being treated like experts by the media wont just get themselves killed, theyll get us killed too.
I dont mean to be harsh, but I see a lot of people ignoring reality here. In a severe pandemic, reality will be extremely harsh, and wont care what the paper says.
Harsh reality is that in the event of even a mild pandemic, you will not have either the beds available or the staff available to provide care to present standards.
Lets take a hypothetical hospital I know about, Hooville Hospital. It has about 565 beds, and presently averages 81% fill rate for those beds. It has about 700 doctors and 1600 nurses. Its located in Hoo County, which is around a hundred miles from a very large metro area (5 million people) and about 60 miles from a large metro area (1 million people).
Hoo county has about 90,000 permanent residents, and houses about 25,000 students at HooU, and is the health care service hub for the surrounding counties which have about another 160,000 people in the surrounding area.
Assume that all students are immediately sent home at the start of the pandemic so that the 10,000 beds of student housing are made available for flu patients.
Assuming only a 1918 level pandemic, at the end of week 1, Hooville Hospital will have seen at least 4500 patients. of those, at least 2250 will require admission; 450 will require ICU level care with ventilators. Assuming all the current patients are discharged immediately and that less ill patients will be discharged to make room for the more severly ill, there will be room for the 450 critical patients and 115 of the rest. Average stay for these patients is 24 weeks.
Assume all deaths occur only in critical patients. Of these critical patients, 225 will die, many quickly, some slowly. Assume half die quickly, and the rest die within 4 weeks; other patients will be admitted as soon as beds are cleansed and cycled.
At the end of week 1, the hospital will have 338 critical patients, 227 less severely ill patients, only 630 doctors left, and only 1440 nurses. It will also have 113 dead bodies to dispose of, and the morgue facility has space for only 24. Local funeral parlors have space for about 25. The local ice skating rink can stockpile as many as 600 bodies, however. The student dorms are now housing around 4000 very ill flu patients.
At the end of week 2, the hospital will have 565 critically ill patients. Some critically ill patients will not be seen at the hospital, all others will not be seen, and the docs will be down to 560, assuming all show up. Nurses will be down to 1300 or less. The dorms will be about full, with 8000 patients. (Who feeds these people or changes the linens?) This assumes that there is no civil disturbance, and that no locals insist with use of force, that their relatives be seen, a considerable assumption.
Q- how many nurses are required per day to support one ICU patient? 2? 3?
Q- How many ventilators are required (565)? How many does Hooville Hospital have? 25?
Q- Where are all the bodies going to go?
Q-What about all the people from the outlying counties, the other 160,000 of them? Where do they get medical care? There is another smaller hospital in town with a couple hundred beds, but theyll be overrun too.
Q- Who takes care of those in the dorms?
Q- What happens if the large cities to the north and east collapse?
So, 2 weeks into the pandemic we see that the health care system in one real hospital, in one real town, is overwhelmed in less than 2 weeks, and in many ways this is much better than can be expected in most locations in the US.
My point is, that if we are to be serious about trying to plan for an emergency, that we have to start with what the reality is now, and the reality is that we have NOWHERE NEAR the capacity required to deal with a pandemic using present protocols.
We have no antivirals. We will have no vaccine. we will have a tiny fraction of the ventilators needed. We will have a small fraction of the professional HCW needed.
Therefore, it is simply absurd to state that we will be able to care for the pandemic victims under these circumstances. Realistic plans for such an event will have to be based on telling people to stay home if they have the flu, on providing expedited burial services, and trying to prevent collateral damage. We will need docs and nurses after the pandemic to treat bacterial pneumonia. Panflu is a viral tidal wave. Killing our HCWs trying to stop it is like trying to stop a tsunami by lying down on the beach.
We WILL need HCW skills to treat those who survive the virus; not only is that a situation where trained HCWs could make a difference, but we will need plasma from the survivors to transfuse the newly ill and save lives. IMO, the only thing to do at the start of a pandemic is to close the hospitals, send everyone home, and tell everyone that they are on their own. alternately, you might set up a screening and triage station outside the facility, or several of them. There you could screen everyone, give them the knowledge they need to care for the sick, admit no-one with the flu, and send them all home.
This location, btw, is Charlottesville Virginia.
LMWatBullRun.
Every week I see two or three posts that are really exceptional. This one by LMWatBullRun was too good not to put in the quotes thread…however it and the other posts are really a little long for a quote thread…
…maybe someone (Oh Hi Average Concerned Mom /:0)) could start a new thread called ‘the great flu wiki post thread’ where we could collect a few of the best posts on flu wiki.
Thanks.
Fools may learn from their mistakes. I prefer to learn from the mistakes of others!…Bismark
Thanks LMWatBullRun
“Many of our JTF-CS committee members believe the single most important message that must be relayed to our senior leaders at the local, state and federal levels is the need to develop a mass fatality/mortuary affair Emergency Support Function (ESF). Presently mass fatality management is listed as one functional element of eighteen under ESF#8 Health and Medical Support and does not adequately address the diverse approach and skill sets required to manage mass fatalities.
Additionally, mass fatality/mortuary operations must move to the forefront of disaster planning rather than continue as a topic no one wants to address for all levels of government.
This (White Paper, Pandemic Influenza Event, pdf) document was prepared for Cremation Association of North America by Michael Nicodemus
Medical Maven at 21:15
Being informed and prepared gives you the strength and capability of doing some good. Otherwise, you are flying blind, and most people will not attempt that feat. And they will let their wildest fears play out.
Dr Dave
SIP is not a guarantee of survival, but failure to SIP is a guarantee of exposure.
Fiddlerdave at 21:12
Just In Time has changed even little stockpiles!
Katrina repairs were like doing a project 200 miles out in the country.
Pandemic infrastucture breakdown repairs will be like doing a project on the moon!
This is not rocket science; we have been dealing with infectious diseases for a long time. Do not let your fear rule your planning.
NP1 - Kelly
In regard to the quote stating that if the virus could not be forced to mutate in a laboratory setting, the concern about a pandemic is probably hype: IMHO, we humans can be very arrogant at times thinking that if we cannot do it, Mother Nature cannot either. I have a feeling that Mother Nature is going to teach us a harsh lesson about respecting what she is capable of doing..
Sniffles
I think my main problem is that a moral leader doesnt necessarily have to be a spiritual leader.
Scaredy Cat
Closed for length and continued here