From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Cover Needs Storing Less

07 November 2006

lugon – at 04:57

Another thread (namely Forum.WhatSuggestionsWouldYouGiveTPTBForIndividualPreps) suggests keeping lots of water for each family. In tiny homes this wouldn’t work well, and the idea of a space-ship like home kind of emerged. Could we recycle every drop of water instead of storing up many cubic feet or meters of water?

Thinking along this line may not be helpful if you have room, cash and want things done yesterday. But:

I’m framing the thread as “cover needs”. We need a way to warm up food, a way to wash ourselves, and so on.

Some ideas will be high tech (spaceship), others will be low tech (1 cubic meter biodigester to have some self-made biogas), and other will just be simple “nice-to-know” ideas.

Some ideas have been covered elsewhere so we may just bring some links (square-foot gardening, etc).

In this design challenge we are allowed to look at sites like http://www.worldchanging.com and even consider buying the book. (I have no commercial interest in it.) Linking to other sites would be good.

10 November 2006

lugon – at 05:50

bump (or delete thread)

Malachi – at 07:19

I’ll have to figure out which book I saw this in so I can get the exact directions for a simple water filter.It was made with four poles that held three sheets of cloth tied across the poles.The top layer held gravel,second held sand,third held charcoal and a bucket was placed underneath to catch what should be clean water when dirty water was poured thru the top to the bottom layer.

Average Concerned Mom – at 08:12

lugon — what does “cover needs” mean exactly?

lugon – at 08:39

“cover (our real) needs”: we don’t need oil (means) but keeping food, cooking, transport (end).

Urdar-Norway – at 20:39

unless you live in a dessert area I belive a doulton filter, and maybe 10 gallon of water ready is what you will need. The filter (when used on some buckets you allready have will not take any space at al, and cost nothing. Chlorine is also a part of prep. I dont belive water will be gone the entire period, nowhere..

Given the system some time to adjust and water will be flowing regardless of cases. Water is so essential for any soceity, that it will be the number 1 priority by anyone able to make it run, worksmen, militarty, pensioners etc. It they dont have power for pumps, they will use generators, If they dont have fuel for generators they will get is somewhere (large generator is diesel run, and the differnt storages of diesel in any industrilized comunity is large., if they dont get generators, any working machine can be converted to do the pumping. But it will be disturbenses, and maybe not water treatment, The way to orgainize it is via rationing at differnt time periods, This will give people time to fill up there conatiners. And remmeber that many areas have gravity feed water.

 Important to check out before deciding tactic.

The message of storing water for 12 weeks is for anyone not living on a rurual farm a message that will not be listened to ( the crazyness of it was clear in the Asia cable incident, no one in central cities have the space needed. And it was made jokes about the recommandation on blogs).

 Put more effort on the message that people should get containers, and cheramic filter, and bleach, Say they need to fill up when a pandemic is a fact, not infront. It will not stop soceity on day one. day 10 perhaps.. 
Sailor – at 21:36

Malachi – at 07:19

Found a similar discription in “Camping and Wilderness Survival” by Paul Tawrell. Page 476.

Jane – at 22:46

I found something like that in The SAS Survival Handbook, p. 283. By John Wiseman.

Filtering: Allow water to stand in its container so that sediment settles to the bottom. Then siphon it into a filter made up of a nylon stocking (or other porous material) stuffed with layers of sand (bottom), charcoal and moss (top).

Then sterilize with bleach or iodine, (Don’t know if I should copy any more of his book.)

It’s a great book, btw. The food section covers smoking food, making flour, insects. Also fish narcotics made from plants! So you can catch the fish! (In the disaster section, he recommends storing a year’s worth of food.)

11 November 2006

blackbird – at 02:02

The answer is likely to be local (but that doesn’t mean we can’t describe solutions here to be implemented locally). For instance, in the Pacific Northwestern US, it has been raining since Halloween. No problem getting water. It needs filtering and purification, but there is plenty to be had. So the solution includes rainwater collection systems (tarps, kiddie pools, rain barrels, etc.)

In the summer, however, there’s likely to be NO rain at all in the westernmost US. A different problem altogether.

In the Northeastern US, you may be able to scoop snow outside and melt it for water needs in winter.

So let me amend my statement to read that “The answer is likely to be local and seasonal.”

Please continue though. This topic is essential. Well, WATER is essential. Thanks for starting the thread, Lugon.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Election of a New Director General At the WHO Part 2

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Election of a New Director General At the WHO Part 2

02 August 2006

Bronco Bill – at 00:29

Continue from here


‘ANON-YYZ – at 13:02

Monotreme – at 12:47
I agree, that’s why no one else really wants to take the helm of the WHO when the pandemic hits - a fall guy in the making.

May be even China knows this - it’s a price of admission into the G8 reach out program.

“It’s not going to be pretty. You take the fall, we’ll will give you more business to keep the factories humming.”

Monotreme – at 10:59

ANON-YYZ – at 13:02

‘’I agree, that’s why no one else really wants to take the helm of the WHO when the pandemic hits - a fall guy in the making. May be even China knows this - it’s a price of admission into the G8 reach out program. “It’s not going to be pretty. You take the fall, we’ll will give you more business to keep the factories humming.”’‘

If governments thought that far ahead, we wouldn’t be in the mess we’re in. I’m sticking with my “dumb” hypothesis.

06 September 2006

Monotreme – at 23:38

Time to revive this thead.

UN health agency announces 13 nominees to become next Director-General

6 September 2006 – The United Nations World Health Organization (WHO) today unveiled the names of the 13 nominees proposed by Member States to replace the late Lee Jong-wook as Director-General of the Geneva-based agency.

Fernando Antezana Araníbar, Chairman of WHO’s Executive Board, announced the list of nominations after the deadline for submissions passed yesterday. The nominees’ curricula vitae will now be circulated among the organization’s 192 Member States.

A shortlist of candidates will be drawn up by the 34-member Executive Board during its meeting in Geneva from 6–8 November, and those candidates will be interviewed. The Executive Board will then choose one candidate by secret ballot and submit that name to the World Health Assembly for a vote on 9 November.

Monotreme – at 23:40

Here’s a list of the 13:

anon_22 – at 23:42

Monotreme,

Thank you.

Who do you think are the frontrunners?

Does anybody hae a list of the Executive Board members?

Nightowl – at 23:53

http://www.who.int/governance/eb/en/index.htmlMEMBERS OF THE EXECUTIVE BOARD AND TERM OF OFFICE

The Executive Board is composed of 34 persons who are technically qualified in the field of health, each designated by a Member State that has been elected to serve by the World Health Assembly. Member States are elected for three-year terms.

The affiliations appear in the style and the language used by the corresponding member of the Board.

AFGHANISTAN 2006–2009 Dr F. Kakar Deputy Minister of Policy, Planning and Preventive Medicine Ministry of Health Kabul

AUSTRALIA 2004–2007 Ms J. Halton Secretary, Department of Health and Ageing Canberra, ACT

AZERBAIJAN 2005–2008 Mr O.K. Shiraliyev Minister of Health Baku

BAHRAIN 2004–2007 Dr N.A. Haffadh Minister of Health Manama

BHUTAN 2005–2008 Dr J. Singay Minister of Health Thimphu

BOLIVIA 2004–2007 Dr. F. Antezana Araníbar Ministro de Salud y Deportes La Paz

BRAZIL 2004–2007 Dr P.M. Buss President, Fiocruz Foundation Rio de Janeiro

CHINA 2006–2009 Dr Ren Minghui Deputy Director-General Department of International Cooperation Ministry of Health Beijing

DENMARK 2006–2009 Dr J.K. Gøtrik Chief Medical Officer National Board of Health Copenhagen

DJIBOUTI 2006–2009 M. A.A. Miguil Minsitre de la Santé Djibouti

EL SALVADOR 2006–2009 Dr J.G. Maza Brizuela Ministro de Salud San Salvador

IRAQ 2005–2008 Dr A.H.I. Al-Shammari Minister of Health Baghdad

JAMAICA 2004–2007 Dr B. Wint Chief Medical Officer Kingston

JAPAN 2005–2008 Dr H. Shinozaki President, National Institute of Public Health Tokyo

KENYA 2004–2007 Dr J. Nyikal Director, Medical Services Preventive and Promotive Health Services Ministry of Health Nairobi

LATVIA 2006–2009 Dr V. Jaksons Adviser to the Director Health Statistics and Medical Technologies State Agency Riga

LESOTHO 2004–2007 Dr M. Phooko Minister of Health and Social Welfare Maseru

LIBERIA Dr W.T. Gwenigale Minister of Health and Social Welfare Monrovia

LIBYAN ARAB JAMAHIRIYA 2004–2007 Dr A.H. Saheli Deputy Secretary, General People’s Committee for Health and Environment Tripoli

LUXEMBOURG 2004–2007 Dr D. Hansen-Koenig Directeur de la Santé Ministère de la Santé Luxembourg

MADAGASCAR 2005–2008 Dr R.R. Jean Louis Ministre de la Santé et du Planning familial Antananarivo

MALI 2006–2009 Dr Z.M. Youba Ministre de la Santé Bamako Koulouba

MEXICO 2005–2008 Mr. M. Bailón González Director General de Relaciones Internacionales Secretaría de Salud Mexico DF

NAMIBIA 2005–2008 Dr K. Shangula Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Health and Social Services Windhoek

PORTUGAL 2005–2008 Professeur J. Pereira Miguel Haut Commissaire de la Santé Lisboa

ROMANIA 2004–2007 Mr E. Nicolaescu Ministère de la Santé Bucarest

RWANDA 2005–2008 Dr J.D. Ntawukuliryayo Ministre de la Santé publique Kigali

SINGAPORE 2006–2009 Dr B. Sadasivan Senior Minister for Health Singapore

SLOVENIA 2006–2009 Dr B. Voljč Director, National Blood Transfusion Centre Ljubljana

SRI LANKA 2006–2009 Mr N.S. de Silva Minister of Healthcare and Nutrition Colombo

THAILAND 2004–2007 Dr Suwit Wibulpolprasert Senior Public Health Officer, Office of the Permanent Secretary Ministry of Public Health Bangkok

TONGA 2004–2007 Dr V. Tangi Minister of Health Nuku’alofa

TURKEY 2006–2009 Profesor S. Aydin Deputy Under-Secretary Ministry of Health Ankara

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 2006–2009 Dr J. Agwunobi Assistant Secretary for Health Department of Health and Human Services Washington DC

Monotreme – at 23:53

And now, some unflattering stories about Margaret Chan, number 13 on my rank-ordered list.

Chan vows to serve world, not China

China’s decision to nominate Chan for the post on July 25 was a surprise as it is unusual for permanent members of the United Nations Security Council to nominate candidates for top jobs in the UN, of which the WHO is an agency.

Don’t drink milk while you read the next sentence, it will come snorting out your nose.

Chan said China had nominated her because it wanted to make a bigger contribution to global public health.

If milk is now snorting out your nose, it’s not my fault.

Since China has been widely accused of covering up disease outbreaks such as severe acute respiratory syndrome, Chan was asked if she would be tough on Beijing should there be another cover-up.

“No way”, said Chan, “Do I look stupid? Do you think I want to spend the rest of my life rotting in a gulag with every other honest bureaucrat in China?”

OK, she didn’t really say that. But I bet she thought it. Instead, she said:

“If elected, I am required to serve the world population. I am not only serving China. I have to demonstrate that I will be fair and transparent and deal with each issue on its merits,” she said, adding Beijing is fully aware of her impartial attitude.

That would be funny if our lives weren’t at stake.

When she was asked to pinpoint the reported inadequacies of China and Hong Kong in combating outbreaks, she chose to comment on the general situation in developed and developing countries, saying “many emerging new diseases pose different challenges” and cited the importance of a good surveillance and reporting system.

Well, we can expect alot more of that when she’s DG. Shall we start taking up a collection for Julie Hall? She will join Maria Cheng in looking for a new job the second Chan becomes DG.

At the time, Chan was accused of mishandling the 2003 SARS outbreak in Hong Kong which infected 1,755 people and killed 299.

Outside the Legislative Council building Wednesday, a relative of a SARS patient who died, held up a placard calling on Chan to apologize and admit her blunders.

But Chan said it was important to move on. “I have apologized for this on different occasions. Of course, we take criticism. But the key is to learn from the lesson and then apply it to future work.”

And indeed she has. Suck up to the PRC and they’ll get you a job running the WHO, no matter how many people your incompetence kills. Those annoying grieving relatives with their futile signs. Really, do they think anyone remembers? Not the New York Times, not anyone in the Western media. They run puff pieces commenting on what a great record she has. Morons.

anon_22 – at 23:55

Nightowl, thank you. That was fast.

Monotreme – at 23:55

anon_22, you are welcome.

like most people, I think Margaret Chan has it sewn up. I personally would vote for Omi, but Japan had a DG recently. I don’t think anyone else really cares, so China will get its way.

Nightowl – at 23:59

Link to WHO reference

You’re welcome, anon_22. Sorry I messed up the link. Hope this one works.

07 September 2006

Monotreme – at 00:02

Revere has a nice post on Effect Measure:

China and choosing a new WHO Director General

Do we have a favorite? No. But we have some opinions. Within WHO, Margaret Chan is considered a frontrunner because of her excellent interpersonal skills, the strong championship of China and the belief of many that China’s stake in her candidacy will enable her to be more effective with this difficult member state. This is a reasonable argument, but we don’t buy it. In fact, China’s sponsorship of Chan we view as a negative, just as we would view any candidate championed by the US. If US Ambassador John Bolton, who cares little for the United Nations, thinks candidate X should be DG, it is our view this is sufficient to disqualify candidate X. And if China wants Margaret Chan, it isn’t because they think she will be a tough DG who will push hard for transparency. China doesn’t believe in the virtues of transparency, and with Beijing being the site of the 2008 Olympic Games their word is even less trustworthy (if that is possible). It is hard not to suspect China wants Chan because they think she is more controllable, by virtue of culture, manner or diplomatic tendencies.

anon_22 – at 00:11

Monotreme,

It’s not a done deal. I’m counting the votes, looks like she will get it. But a lot can happen between now and November.

ANON-YYZ – at 00:12

Monotreme – at 23:55

You know who will really celebrate should Margaret Chan gets elected?

Answer, U.S. HHS Secretary Leavitt. Well, you can add NYC Bloomberg et al.

The fact of the matter is, TPTB in the U.S. (and in Canada) missed the chance to face the threat for years, with lies after lies, and now it’s too little too late. Their only solution is a convenient scape goat called the WHO. Politicians with failed domestic policies often divert attention to international issues. If you make enough noise, people will forget about problems you caused in their backyard and look for blame elsewhere.

Tom DVM – at 00:14

Monotreme. Tell us what you really think. Yahooooooooooooo.

Monotreme – at 00:17

Race to fill WHO top job begins in earnest

Critics contend the system of selecting the global health agency’s head lacks transparency, opening the door to a situation where the trading of political favours - rather than the merits of the candidates and the needs of the WHO - could carry the day.

Ya think?

“I think everybody is aware that the system is open to huge corruption at the moment,” Dr. Richard Horton, editor of the medical journal The Lancet, said in an interview Monday.

C’mon Dr. Horton, spill.

“It’s pretty clear to me that there are some candidates who really shouldn’t have an opportunity to get the WHO DG (director general) job, but they will be strong candidates because of their governments and what their governments can do for them.

He must be talking about the Ecuadorian nominee, right?

Within the WHO itself, Chan - the highly personable former public health head from Hong Kong - is seen by some as a leading candidate.

I really like Helen Branswell’s articles, but I wish she would ask the grieving relative with the placard that I mention at at 23:53 if they find Dr. Chan “highly personable”.

Nightowl – at 00:48

Chan Confident of Winning

Wednesday, September 6, 2006

“Hong Kong’s former health chief Margaret Chan Fung Fu-chun is confident of winning the World Health Organization’s top job, claiming she has secured support from “some countries.”

In a telecast Tuesday from Geneva, where she is now based, Chan said: “I have met top officials in 15 countries in the past three weeks and they have given me very positive feedback.

“Most of them expressed support for my candidacy. Personally, I’m very confident I’ll win.” more….

Tom DVM – at 01:15

You would think she was running for an elected office in a political party…humility, exactly what we need in the WHO.

Nightowl – at 07:58

Yeah, it just goes to show how truly political it all is. Out campaigning - amazing.

Monotreme – at 08:27

Nightowl – at 00:48, thanks for the link.

Chan’s comment that: Personally, I’m very confident I’ll win

Is disgusting and unseemly on so many levels.

Well, since this is clearly a political contest, those of us who think Chan would make a terrible DG ought to use the political tools at our disposal. Time to contact our representatives let them know we want our countries to *not* support her candidacy. A vote for Chan is a vote for more coverups in China.

Nightowl – at 08:45

Here’s an older article from July 31, but it gives an idea of the full court press being conducted by the Chinese government.

Link

…”Vice Minister of Health Huang Jiefu, who was on a visit to Hong Kong, said Chan’s records were there for the public to see, saying her candidacy was not her “personal business” but a matter of national interest.”…


It is frightening to see the phrase “matter of national interest” from a government that has repeatedly withheld information, sequences, virus samples, etc.

Monotreme – at 08:51

Nightowl– at 08:45, you’re exactly right.

And if our governments roll over for this, we need to punish them in the polls. I want to know my representatives’ position on the WHO. They probably don’t have one because they don’t know who the WHO is, but that just means we need to educate them.

Nightowl – at 09:01

Oh, and we can add that when they do release anything, it is never independently verified by an outside WHO lab, unlike other countries. (a thank you to anon_22 for pointing this out to me)

Nightowl – at 10:22

BTW, in the article at 08:45, there is a little cartoon in the upper, righthand corner worth seeing. We are not the only ones who are worried. (Thank you, pogge, for fixing the link that I messed up.)

Nightowl – at 17:16

Edna Mode at 09:28 on the news thread has posted an article today that says Indonesia will be doing the same as China now - confirming cases without sending samples out for a second verification. They will do two rounds within the country. My statement at 09:01 needed to be updated with this information.

10 September 2006

gharris – at 22:55

From Helen Branswell’s article posted on EffectMeasure

Chan, the well-liked former director of health for Hong Kong (and a graduate of the University of Western Ontario), surprised observers when she said in interviews Tuesday that she was confident she’d win the race. In an e-mail exchange Wednesday, she softened that bold statement.

“It is a very fierce competition indeed with so many strong candidates and factors affecting the voting decision,” Chan said.

I recall reading somewhere that Margaret Chan and Richard Schabas were colleagues, or that Chan had been Schabas’ student or vice versa?? - This purported association makes me VERY concerned about Canada’s Pandemic Preparedness Planning (which is going so slowly as to be non-existent) mostly because Schabas’ opinion is so highly regarded by Fed Ministry of Health Tony Clement from their ‘shared’ Toronto SARS management days. Schabas, as Ontario-ans may recall, is a noted naysayer - and Clement still listens to him!! So falls the country!!

gharris – at 22:59

…oh - and I dont like CHAN much for WHO either!!

12 September 2006

AnnieBat 19:43

Should WHO chief save face or save lives? By SIMON LEE (link http://tinyurl.com/epd3g )

Hong Kong _ Yesterday was the closing date for candidates to lead the World Health Organisation. Let’s hope that when elections are held in November, they find someone with the character to tackle both new transnational health threats such as avian flu, and persistent killers such as diarrhoea, TB, malaria and Aids. Unfortunately, at least one candidate has already shown signs that she might not have what it takes.

One of the favourites to replace the late Dr Lee Jong Wook, who died suddenly in May, is China’s candidate Margaret Chan. Currently in charge of the WHO’s response to avian flu, she was also director of health in Hong Kong from 1994 to 2003, a period that coincided with the emergence of both avian flu and severe acute respiratory syndrome or Sars.

As avian flu marches up the global political agenda, her experience in these two roles should make her a shoo-in. After all, the World Bank has just announced that Indonesia’s economy has already been affected by bird flu and the WHO is the only agency with the skills and mandate to coordinate the response to this kind of pandemic health threat. What could be better than a leader who already has a track record of dealing with them?

The problem is Dr Chan’s past actions show her to be more concerned with saving face than saving lives, an unsuitable candidate for a position that requires honesty, accountability and genuine leadership.

Take the Sars outbreak of 2003. Dr Chan was then chief health adviser to the Hong Kong government and responsible for determining strategy. Although the outbreak came to an end fairly swiftly, it killed a total of 298 people in Hong Kong.

A subsequent enquiry by the Hong Kong legislature concluded that Dr Chan’s response to the Sars outbreak was unsatisfactory, condemning her for not attaching sufficient importance to soft intelligence on the epidemic and not taking account of the heavy passenger flow between Guangdong and Hong Kong.

If Dr Chan had announced the epidemic in Guangdong in the two months before the outbreak arrived in Hong Kong, hospitals would have had time to prepare. Instead, Hong Kong’s hospitals acted like an incubator for the disease before it spread out into the community.

More egregiously, Dr Chan spent the vital early days of the outbreak wrangling with the WHO over its choice of the name for the disease: Sars.

This choice was coincidentally similar to the official abbreviation for Hong Kong, the Special Administrative Region (SAR). Instead of immediately setting in train the necessary procedures to tackle the outbreak, Dr Chan wasted time trying to save China’s face by protesting against the name Sars.

Without this delay many lives could have been saved.

Dr Chan’s handling of avian flu in Hong Kong was equally inept. When the H5N1 virus was first identified in 1997, nobody knew if it could spread to humans. Dr Chan sought to reassure a jittery public by declaring, I eat chicken every day.

However, as it emerged that poultry were dying in great quantities, the Department of Food Hygiene decided to intervene before a crisis developed. Even though Dr Chan had famously told everyone to carry on eating chicken, the Hong Kong government slaughtered approximately 1.6 million and banned all chicken imports.

So it was actually the head of the Department of Food Hygiene who took the tough decision that risked embarrassing Beijing. Dr Chan, meanwhile, was more concerned about saving her boss’s face than with protecting public health.

China is at the centre of a number of emerging health threats. In addition to avian flu, for which honesty and openness from China will be absolutely vital if a devastating global pandemic is to be prevented, China has a burgeoning Aids problem which threatens millions of people. However, censorship and the restriction of free speech has meant that these two diseases have either been underplayed or officially disavowed in China, denying people the knowledge needed to protect themselves.

If Dr Chan held the top job at the WHO, China would effectively have carte blanche to continue the deceptions and ignorance on which infectious diseases such as HIV/Aids and avian flu thrive.

Avian flu is perhaps the biggest communicable disease threat facing the world. To defeat it and to defeat the many other existing diseases and emerging threats will require accountability and honesty from the WHO, the only agency that has the ability to coordinate action on a global scale.

Dr Chan’s past actions in dealing with avian flu have shown her to be more concerned with politics than public health. WHO member states could save face now by electing someone else.

Simon Lee is a Hong Kong-based analyst and a columnist for Apple Daily

Grace RN – at 20:48

Great- yet another component of ‘The Perfect Storm’ slips into place-international incompetence, exploding virii soups, horrible conditions in the Middle East…

Monotreme – at 22:33

News

France’s candidate for WHO top job wants to make health body more “‘visible”

COPENHAGEN, Denmark (AP) - Bernard Kouchner, France’s former health minister who co-founded Doctors Without Borders, said Tuesday he wanted to raise the profile of the World Health Organization by drawing on his experience from extensive field work.

[snip]

Kouchner was part of a group of French doctors who in 1971 founded Medecins Sans Frontieres. The group won the 1999 Nobel Peace prize for its medical relief work in more than 80 countries.

“The most important part of my knowledge comes from the field,” said Kouchner, who was in the Danish capital to promote his candidacy at the annual meeting of top health officials from the WHO’s European region. The group includes 52 members, from Greenland in the north, Mediterranean nations to the south and Russia’s Pacific shores.

“I was a free, flexible, inventive and an anarchist NGO,” Kouchner told reporters of his field work. “I am still acting with that kind of spirit.”

13 September 2006

Leo7 – at 00:44

Kouchner is the guy I wish the WHO would nominate. Doctors without Borders is successful and I donate to it yearly because I feel like the cash actually goes to people not bureacracy. I say let the man with the dirty boots win.

anonymous – at 01:41

is something known about their intend to raise the pandemic level to “4″ ? I remember their was a conference about this after the Karo-cluster. Did the candidates vote or give interviews about their opinions ?

28 October 2006

anon_22 – at 01:01

I came across this rather accidentally, and thought I should post it here. This is an article from the Bangkok post written by Jeffrey Koplan, former director of the US CDC, who was a member of the SARS review committee for Hong Kong. Members of this committee are listed here, and includes Harvey Fineberg, President of the Institute of Medicine, Sir Cyril Chantler of the King’s Fund, UK, and Sian Griffiths of the Royal College of Physicians UK, among others.


FOCUS / THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANISATION Smear campaign mars race for WHO chief’s post Bangkok Post 5 October 2006

By DR JEFFREY KOPLAN

The race for the top job at the World Health Organisation has, for the first time, gone negative, which threatens a thoughtful selection process. November’s election of the next director-general of the World Health Organisation may be the UN agency’s most critical.

<snip>

Unfortunately, an effort appears to have been mounted to malign one of these people.

Never before has any director-general candidate been attacked so personally, and so publicly as is now happening to Margaret Chan, China’s nominee.

A series of news articles and opinion pieces started to appear recently challenging her credibility, dedication, competence and accomplishments. This kind of mudslinging is a new and unfortunate development in the competition for this post.

And many of the accusations are wrong. I know because I investigated Dr Chan’s actions as part of a public inquiry into Hong Kong’s response to severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars). There is simply no evidence for the scurrilous allegations. These personal attacks distort history and run counter to several objective investigations and reviews that establish her competence and leadership.

My role here is not to defend or promote Dr Chan. She needs no defence beyond a fair reading of her record. My concern is that these tactics of personal attack have no place in a decision so vital to global public health.

Now, especially, the world needs the most capable people to address the challenges before us. Dr Chan is one of those people, as are others in the race for WHO’s top job. All of them need to be considered fairly, on their merits, or we all will lose.

The writer was director of the US Centres for Disease Control, and a member of the Sars Review Committee for Hong Kong in 2005.

anon_22 – at 01:06

Note that this SARS review committee was the expert’s committee, ie the scientific not political evaluation, which was mentioned on part 1 of this thread.

Monotreme – at 16:00

WHO needs to more transparent to attract funds: Dr Bernard Kouchner

Dr Bernard Kouchner, France’s candidate for the post of Director General of the World Health Organization or WHO, is in Singapore to rally support from the Singapore government.

Singapore is one of the voting countries on the WHO’s executive board.

Dr Kouchner was a former French health minister, founder of Doctors Without Borders which was awarded the 1999 Nobel Peace Prize, and head of the UN’s Kosovo mission in 1999.

[snip]

With regards to the Avian Flu, he said the danger seems to be controlled for now, adding that “some are complaining that we developed a pathologic attitude towards what was not threatening us, but I don’t think so, we must maintain our defences”.

Dr Kouchner also pointed out that WHO lacked transparency which he says is why it lacks funds.

[snip]

Dr Kouchner said: “To get money, you need confidence, and the people are not so confident because of the lack of transparency in such a system. We have to work with the other UN agencies and at the same time, to work with the foundations, to work with the NGOs. There is a lot of money all around the world because of the generosity of men like Mr Clinton or Mr Gates - if you offer them transparency, and if you prove that you are working well, with efficiency, you will find the money.”

Monotreme – at 16:09

WHO Western Pacific chief vows to make bird flu priority if elected director-general

HANOI, Vietnam He has battled SARS and bird flu in Asia and says the world would be in experienced hands during a flu pandemic if he became head of the World Health Organization.

Shigeru Omi of Japan, currently WHO’s Western Pacific regional director, is among 13 candidates nominated by their countries to fill the top job after Director-General Lee Jong-wook died unexpectedly in May two years before his term was up.

[snip]

“Pandemic preparedness is my first commitment,” Omi told The Associated Press by phone from Sri Lanka, where he was campaigning this week. “The virus may change all of a sudden so that a human pandemic may happen. That’s why we have to prepare ourselves for the worst-case scenario.


If I had a vote, Omi would be my first choice, Kouchner second, and Chan last.

31 October 2006

Monotreme – at 21:43

Japanese candidate offers ‘political courage’ in WHO race

Japanese WHO official Shigeru Omi, who helped set up a controversial warning against travel to southern China and Hong Kong during the SARS epidemic in 2003, has pledged to show “political courage” if he is elected head of the United Nations health agency.

[snip]

Asked for examples of political courage, Omi underlined his role in advising then WHO chief, Gro Harlem Brundtland, to issue a formal public warning against travel to China’s Guangdong province and Hong Kong on April 2, 2003.

It was the first time that the global health agency had ever issued a travel advisory to prevent the spread of a disease. The decision sparked a howl of protests from the countries concerned.

[snip]

Japanese WHO official Shigeru Omi, who helped set up a controversial warning against travel to southern China and Hong Kong during the SARS epidemic in 2003, has pledged to show “political courage” if he is elected head of the United Nations health agency.

[snip]

Omi said that Asian countries tackling H5N1 bird flu since 2003 were now split in two categories: one that had made good progress in cutting transmission in infected chickens, the other that was “not succesful” in doing so.

“In spite of strong political commitment… and so on. Everybody has good intentions, but there are two groups,” he added.


Dr. Omi is making it as clear as he possibly can that he is with us. Maybe it’s time to write our representatives and express our opinion on this subject.

01 November 2006

Tom DVM – at 09:37

Dr. Margaret Chang has chosen to be a public figure and therefore, like all politicians, has a history (public health is in large part politics).

History is open to continual re-interpretation. She may have been treated fairly by history or not, it is not for us to decide…but now she will in a few weeks, thanks to China’s money and influence, be starting her tenure as Director General of the World Health Organization. She will be on top of the ‘mole hill’.

She can dispel history by acting in the best interest of those who pay her wages…which is us!!…or she can be a lap-dog of China (who has the money and the influence).

She should well know that she has summited the mountain at what will be an apex of history and regulatory medical science. She is going to be the center of attention as she is the pivotal figure in all that we discuss.

This time there will be no gray areas at the end of the day.

Pixie – at 09:40

TomDVM:

If Chan is appointed, we will see pan-flu “managed” with the Chinese stle of management right up until it’s obvious that no one anywhere can “manage” it for a second more.

As bad as the managing part of that is, what’s worse is that once the virus does its thing and becomes unstopable, the “management” plan has no follow-up plan. That’s the problem with command-style beaurocracies. They can work ok, or at least look like they’re working ok, as long as the chinks in the management plan don’t get too big. When they do, the entire load of fish blows apart and there is absolutely never any “plan B.”

Tom DVM – at 09:43

Pixie Thanks /:0)

07 November 2006

bump – at 21:37

bump

08 November 2006

ANON-YYZ – at 13:16

In the news thread, it was said the U.S. sent its block of 9 votes to elect Chan.

If that was indeed true, then I wasn’t too far off earlier on this thread. The U.S. and Canada need a scape goat when TSHTF. “WHO should have announced phase 4 earlier, so we could have done something earlier.”

But here at Fluwiki, we knew. Canada made representations to the WHO and down played the need for things like PPE. I don’t remember the details of when this news was posted (by Klatu I think, sorry if I am wrong.

To TPTB, now that the fall guy is chosen, please don’t appeal to the WHO to delay phase 4, and down play the threat, and under estimate the budget necessary to mitigate the problem. Put money on the table. And save us.

09 November 2006

bump – at 08:58
ANON-YYZ – at 18:53

I made a number of speculations on this thread and the first thread. Whatever they were, it’s water under the bridge. I said in July that our best chance was to get a good ADG in charge of panflu i.e. Margaret Chan’s old job. I also said we would have more mileage pushing our governments than focusing on the DG election which I felt was a waste of our time. As well, I suggested that we create our own pandemic alert scale to compete with the WHO phases. However, my idea gained zero traction, and I accepted the collective wisdom of the wiki. I would still like to re-open the discussion about who would make a good ADG for panflu. I have these names

Dr. Osterholm Dr. Nabarro

Any one else wants to chime in?

gharris – at 19:01

I agree!!! Lest have them both!! They could ‘share the ADG chair’ and take turns travelling and speaking so that one of them is always in the office with a finger on the red button! I think we should declare Level 4 as our Fluwiki Alert Level - and post it on the Main Page of the Wiki as well as at the top of the Forum Page! Comments anybody??

anon_22 – at 19:03

Yes, but who is actually going to be offered the job though? Does anyone know a line-up of the candidates?

ANON-YYZ – at 19:07

I just realized Dr Shigeru Omi also vacated his old job. Is he getting his old job back or is he moving on? If the latter is true, then there are two jobs open. So can we have both Dr.Osterholm and Dr. Nabarro?

ANON-YYZ – at 19:07

I just realized Dr Shigeru Omi also vacated his old job (not quite sure what it was). Is he getting his old job back or is he moving on? If the latter is true, then there are two jobs open. So can we have both Dr.Osterholm and Dr. Nabarro?

10 November 2006

crfullmoon – at 07:53

( As if we could be so lucky? )

anon_22 – at 10:13

Omi was head of the Regional WHO Western Pacific. They all had to vacate their jobs for the election, and those who didn’t win will go automatically back to their old jobs.

ANON-YYZ – at 11:36

crfullmoon – at 07:53

I know. I know.

But if we don’t try, we won’t find out.

Path Forward – at 12:53

Back in September, Monotreme wrote: “Well, we can expect alot more of that when [Margaret Chan is] DG. Shall we start taking up a collection for Julie Hall? She will join Maria Cheng in looking for a new job the second Chan becomes DG.”

Maria Cheng left WHO last spring, to become the Associated Press medical writer based in Europe. And Julie Hall accepted a job (which will start next month) outside WHO several weeks ago, when the DG race was completely up in the air (despite what some people on this thread seem to believe).

ANON-YYZ – at 14:14

Path Forward – at 12:53

Julie probably made the decision to quit so she was able to be very vocal. For every Julie or Maria, there are many more (pick your number) who are doing this difficult job everyday, sometimes quietly, trying to make the world safer. They are my heroes. They need to know that it’s not unnoticed.

Sniffles – at 21:07

Comment about this situation from EffectMeasure:

WHO Director General: on being careful what you wish for Category: Bird flu • China • WHO Posted on: November 10, 2006 5:59 PM, by revere

In an example of the adage, “Be careful what you wish for,” China’s choice for WHO Director General, Dr. Margaret Chan, is already finding her reputation will be held hostage to the behavior of China itself, not an enviable position. <snip>

http://tinyurl.com/yhlp79

11 November 2006

ANON-YYZ – at 01:14

Sniffles – at 21:07

Is this an early sign Chan’s new position will help with the China problem? We hope so. It could just be China’s initial concession to dampen anxieties about her independence as she takes over the helm. We’ll have to see. Chan is now in the position that her credibility is tied to the credibility of the Chinese government.

Earlier today November 10th in the news thread, I had similar thoughts as the last sentence quoted above in Effect Measure.

ANON-YYZ – at 13:58 November 10 news thread.

http://preview.tinyurl.com/y43tay

Sure they could try to hide the damning sequences. I am no scientist, but I think as more sequences are released, some scientist will pose more questions that will force more to be released (just like the Fujian strain paper). Now that Chan is elected, China has more to lose than before. We have leverage now. In the past, they could just ignore us, and there was not much we could do about it. But Chan is accountable to the UN, and China wouldn’t want to be embarrass her too much. Imagine China 30 years ago, with this virus, behind an iron curtain. It would have been far worse.

anon_22 – at 01:28

Sniffles – at 21:07

Is this an early sign Chan’s new position will help with the China problem?

I think we are more likely to see vacillations due to competing interests inside China. Trade vs health. Central vs local government. Human health vs agricultural concerns. Pragmatism vs ideology.

Politics consists of a compromises and lowest common denominators alternating with efforts to do good, IMHO.

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.ElectionOfANewDirectorGeneralAtTheWHOPart2
Page last modified on November 11, 2006, at 01:28 AM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / News Reports for November 10

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: News Reports for November 10

10 November 2006

MaMaat 00:51

(If you want any of the links to open in a new window, hold down the shift key and then click on the link)

Summary from Indonesia Outbreak as of 9 November 2006

Cases DiscussedJun-06Jul-06Aug-06Sep-06Oct-06Nov-06Total
Died, no tests22437018
Died, tested positive43233015
Other tested posituve0131005
Symptoms, tests pending424638304124
Tested negative06261911062
Totals10148164514224

Lookout Posts – here are the links (if no Lookout Post exists, it will not be highlighted)

Please visit these threads for latest information from these regions or to add news

NoRegion NameNoRegion NameNoRegion Name
1USA8East Africa15Arab Peninsula
2Canada, Greenland and the Arctic Circle9Southern Africa and Madagascar16Central Asia
3Central America and Caribbean10Northwest Europe and British Isles17Southern Asia
4South America and Surrounding Islands11West and Southwest Europe18Mainland East Asia and Japan
5Northern Africa12Central and Southeast Europe19Southeast Asia
6West Africa13Eastern Europe and Baltic Region20Australasia Melanesia and Micronesia
7Central Africa14Middle East and Caucasus Region21Pacific Islands and Antarctic

(Please see the thread Volunteers Needed as Lookouts Worldwide if you want to help)

Separate threads for India, Indonesia and Nepal – see links below


Summary of News for 9 November 2006

(From WHO as at 31 Oct - latest update) Total human cases worldwide 256, deaths 152 (2006 – 109 with 74 deaths)

Nigeria

Indonesia

UK

Australia

New Zealand

India

Japan

China

USA

Canada

General

Link to news thread for 9 November (link News Reports for November 9 )
(Usual disclaimer about may not have captured everything. Feel free to add your own where omissions have occurred.)
Please note that I copy the links directly from the thread so if they don’t work you may need to re-visit the Thread.

Hope you have an excellent time golfing AnnieB!

MaMaat 00:54

It worked!

Oremus – at 00:56

“”“Great Job MaMa!!!”“”

Oremus – at 00:57

Most Excellent

MaMaat 01:06

Thanks Oremus!

I wasn’t sure if I could do it. I thought I’d make a mistake somewhere…whew! AnnieB does such a lovely job and Thank God she left a template that was easy to use once I figured out what I was doing.

Leo7 – at 01:27

Ok, I’m more than a little disturbed by the article listed above in General from CIDRAP concerning Plavix basically inactivating the effectiveness of Tamiflu. This is BIG news since there are million and millions who take this drug.

Could the pharm D’s and doc’s express some opinions please? Also is there any chance that aspirin that shares “some similarities” with Plavix would do the same? (I know I’m stretching by adding asa in the mix, but millions take the combo Asa plus Plavix).

Oremus – at 01:27

I just learned to bost in bold. Single quotes, not double quotes. 8^)

Oremus – at 01:29

post though I was bosting….er…boasting.

MaMaat 03:16

Oremus, it happens to us all:-)

NEWS

China shares bird flu samples, denies new strain report

BEIJING (Reuters) - “China agreed on Friday to share long-sought bird flu virus samples with international health authorities, after rejecting scientists’ findings that a new, vaccine-resistant strain was circulating in the country.

The World Health Organization (WHO) said 20 virus samples were being sent to the U.S. Center for Disease Control, a WHO collaborating center, raising hopes of a better understanding of how the H5N1 bird flu virus is changing.

“We are very encouraged by that. They are viruses from 2004 and 2005, and we will make follow-ups for the 2006 samples,” Henk Bekedam, the WHO’s China representative, told Reuters.

The decision comes after China rejected findings in a paper published last week by Hong Kong and U.S. scientists that said they had detected a new strain of H5N1 in the southern Chinese province of Fujian last year…”

more… http://tinyurl.com/yf3d88

MaMaat 03:18

NEWS

China reports 10 bird flu outbreaks this year

Chinaview- BEIJING, Nov. 10 (Xinhua) — “About 47,000 poultry birds died in 10 outbreaks of bird flu in seven provinces on the Chinese mainland this year, said an official with the Ministry of Agriculture on Friday.

    Another 2.94 million fowls were culled, Jia Youling, chief veterinary officer and director of the Veterinary Bureau of Ministry of Agriculture, told a press conference.

    A total of 3,641 migratory birds in west China’s Qinghai Province and Tibet Autonomous Region had died of the disease this year, he said.

    The cases of human infection by bird flu numbered 13 this year…”

http://tinyurl.com/y9h72c

lugon – at 04:20

Humble suggestion re “links”.

If this is being created on a wiki-page or a text file that is then copied over to here, then please remember [[http://www.fluwikie2.com|this syntax]] allows for very long URLs that don’t look long at all. Not depending on tinyurl means people can see where the link goes without having to actually go there.

On a not-too-many-news day, please try it with just one link and see what is least disruptive for your great work.

lugon – at 04:21

Off-topic (or maybe not): fredness is updating a number of wikipages on the main wiki. Adding links and polishing some pages.

If someone already follows “current wikipage activity” (fluwikie.com, not fluwikie2.com), we might have reports as news.

Klatu – at 09:20

WHO apologizes to China for misusing bird flu samples: official

       

UPDATED: 21:35, November 10, 2006

People’s Daily Online

The World Heath Organization (WHO) has apologized to the Chinese government after bird flu samples provided by China were misused by foreign research institutions, China’s chief veterinarian Jia Youling revealed here Friday.

“Mr. (Henk) Bekedam from the WHO Beijing office apologized to me personally twice. His attitude was very sincere and I was deeply moved”, Jia told a press conference hosted by the information office of the State Council, China’s cabinet.

Jia, director of the Ministry of Agriculture’s veterinary bureau, said China provided five bird flu samples to the WHO in June 2005, at the WHO’s request, after a major outbreak in 2004.

“Foreign research institutions improperly used the samples in two cases, violating the intellectual property rights of Chinese researchers,” he said.

In one research paper, the samples were attributed to countries other than China, Jia said, adding that co-author Rob Webster, from St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital in the United States, had also apologized to the Chinese research institution concerned.

In another case, foreign researchers cited the Chinese sample without giving credit to the Chinese side, which contravenes international practice, Jia said. Jia declined to give the researchers’ names. Jia rejected accusations that China has been reluctant to share its bird flu samples with the international community.

In addition to the five samples provided in 2005, he said China has provided WHO with 20 further samples this year. He said the provision of the 20 samples took several months because of strict, time-consuming procedures on both sides. Great caution was needed to handle dangerous bird flu samples.

Jia said the Ministry of Agriculture will continue to work closely with the international community, including the WHO, to control bird flu.

Xinhua reporters were unable to reach WHO’s Beijing office for comment. But previously Bekedam told Reuters that the Chinese samples were used in research that failed to acknowledge that China’s Ministry of Agriculture had identified the virus, in breach of scientific protocol.

“That happened twice, and I apologized on behalf of the WHO collaborating center because that is bad behaviour among scientists,” he said.

http://tinyurl.com/thsrb

Klatu – at 09:22

Looks like Dr. Chan hit the ground running.

Klatu – at 09:32

Manual eyed to help Japanese abroad in Bird-flu pandemics

Kyodo News

‘’‘Japan plans to compile a manual by year’s end to address a possible outbreak of a new bird flu-mutated human influenza, Foreign Ministry officials said Wednesday. The manual will include measures for the dispatch of a medical team abroad to protect Japanese nationals in the event they cannot flee an affected area, they said.

The Foreign Ministry, which plans to report on the idea to a ministerial meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, will set up a panel of medical experts later this month to draw up details, the officials said. APEC leaders are expected to agree to strengthen joint efforts against bird flu and other infectious diseases at their Nov. 18–19 summit in Hanoi after the Nov. 15–16 meeting of their foreign and economic ministers there.

The government is considering sending a medical team to any country hit by an outbreak that compels it to restrict travel overseas, thus making it impossible for Japanese nationals to leave, according to the officials. Outbreaks will be broken down into six levels — normal conditions, an epidemic among birds, bird-to-human transmission, an outbreak of human-to-human transmission, the spread of human-to-human transmission and global pandemic. With the situation deteriorating chiefly in Indonesia, a global pandemic is currently feared, the officials said. - excerpt

http://tinyurl.com/y9vahc

Snowhound1 – at 10:17

MaMa..Great job on the summary..Do you need “no” sleep? :) I won’t ever be able to do the summary as I can’t keep my eyes open that late. Maybe if I lived on the West coast. :)

ANON-YYZ – at 10:45

Klatu – at 09:22

I read yesterday in one of the news postings here (Reuters) that Chan won’t be in the job until January 2007. I think it’s more likely that China was trying to be low key and stayed away from any comments that would be controversial until the DG election was over, and didn’t want to take the bait even when challenged.

MaMa – at 03:16

If China agrees to releasing samples, then we will all find out whether the latest ‘out burst’ by Chinese officials are justified.

Klatu – at 11:19

ANON-YYZ – at 10:45 wrote:

“Klatu – at 09:22

I read yesterday in one of the news postings here (Reuters) that Chan won’t be in the job until January 2007.”


I think the wheels where already greased when Dr. Chan shook hands with Chinese Vice Premier Wu Yi in July/06. She may not officially take over till 2007, but the writing is on the wall and on the Internet.

‘’‘UPDATED: July 30, 2006 Vice premier wu meets Margaret Chan’‘’

“Chinese Vice Premier Wu Yi ® shakes hands with Margaret Chan, Assistant Director-General for Communicable Diseases of the World Health Organization (WHO), during their meeting in Beidaihe, a summer seaside resort in north China’s Hebei Province July 29, 2006. Margaret Chan will run for WHO Director-General as China’s candidate in November this year.”

http://tinyurl.com/wl5z4

Klatu – at 11:22

China agrees to share samples of flu strain

Reuters

November 10, 2006

BEIJING: China agreed Friday to share its samples of the bird flu virus with international health authorities, after rejecting scientists’ findings that a new, vaccine-resistant strain was circulating in the country. The World Health Organization said that 20 virus samples were being sent to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, raising hopes that it will be able to gain a better understanding of how the H5N1 bird flu virus is changing.

Henk Bekedam, the WHO’s representative in China, said: “We are very encouraged by that. They are viruses from 2004 and 2005, and we will make follow-ups for the 2006 samples.”

The decision came after China rejected findings in a paper published last week by Hong Kong and U.S. scientists that reported they had detected a new strain of H5N1 in the southern Chinese province of Fujian last year.”

excerpt

http://tinyurl.com/y6frr4

ANON-YYZ – at 11:28

Klatu – at 11:19

I think the wheels where already greased

I don’t quite understand what you mean. Are you saying that as China decided to sponsor Chan for the DG election, it also decided to release the samples or are you saying that Chan’s election will result in no samples released?

Pseudorandom – at 12:31

Science Magazine’s News of the Week column has an article titled “Is China Coming Clean on Bird Flu?”

Link:

An interesting excerpt: “Julie Hall, the WHO coordinator for communicable disease surveillance and response in Beijing, says China’s Ministry of Health has shared six virus samples from human cases over the past year, but the Ministry of Agriculture hasn’t shared any since 2004. Over the past year, the Health Ministry has reported human cases in provinces where there are no reported poultry outbreaks. Now the PNAS paper suggests that the virus is circulating in poultry in six provinces even more widely than it has in the past, yet information from the Ministry of Agriculture’s surveillance efforts is not showing the same results. “What we need is a clear and comprehensive picture” of which substrains are increasing and which are disappearing—and in what regions—as well as sharing of samples, Hall says.

A better understanding would enable China to evaluate and fine-tune its control measures. And sharing samples could help in the development of vaccines and diagnostics tailored to the strains in circulation. As an example, Hall notes that early this year a human case in northeast Liaoning Province tested negative using then-current diagnostic tests. But once viral strains circulating among poultry in the region were used to tweak the diagnostic test, it produced accurate positive results. “Even a minor change [in the virus] can affect the sensitivity of diagnostic tests,” Hall says.

Last year, China’s Ministry of Agriculture agreed to share 20 viral samples from strains circulating within China in 2004 and 2005. But Hall says that the samples have yet to be shipped to international reference labs. Ministry of Agriculture officials did not return e-mails seeking comment.”

Comment: China’s agreement to share samples came last year. Obviously, they’re following through on that very well! But what good will 20 samples do? In 20 samples, if none turn up as Fujian, there’s still a 95% chance that the prevalence of the Fujian strain is as high as approximately 14% (i.e. the one-sided 95% confidence interval for the proportion of samples identified as Fujian would be (0, 0.1391)). Mildly informative, maybe … decisive, certainly not.

Pseudorandom – at 12:32

Sorry … here’s the link for the above article: http://tinyurl.com/y35wrc

Oremus – at 12:59

ANON-YYZ – at 11:28

I’m thinking, that China released the sequences as payment for Chan’s election.

ANON-YYZ – at 13:03

Oremus – at 12:59

OK, price of admission to the world stage. This is just down payment. Pay some more, to keep Chan in the job.

ANON-YYZ – at 13:03

Release all sequences.

SIPCT – at 13:23

Klatu at 11:19

I fear the phrase you want is “the skids were already greased”

T – at 13:35

only strains that say what they want to say will be released. They get to pick and choose and my guess they would choose the least damning.

DennisCat 13:50

Notice they have only releases 20 of the thousands they have. And those are from 2004 and 2005 before things started to “take off”.

ANON-YYZ – at 13:58

Sure they could try to hide the damning sequences. I am no scientist, but I think as more sequences are released, some scientist will pose more questions that will force more to be released (just like the Fujian strain paper). Now that Chan is elected, China has more to lose than before. We have leverage now. In the past, they could just ignore us, and there was not much we could do about it. But Chan is accountable to the UN, and China wouldn’t want to be embarrass her too much. Imagine China 30 years ago, with this virus, behind an iron curtain. It would have been far worse.

MaMaat 14:26

Snowhound1 at 10:17, thanks! I’m kind of used to being up late:-)

MaMaat 14:39

ANON-YYZ, ‘If China agrees to releasing samples, then we will all find out whether the latest ‘out burst’ by Chinese officials are justified.’

Well IMHO I’m pretty sure all of the samples released will reflect their position on the US paper about the Fujian strain. According to the article posted at 3:18 China has a great deal more than 20 samples they could share (40–50,000+ maybe?). How many of the 20 they choose would you venture to guess might tell scientists something new and significant?

ANON-YYZ – at 14:51

MaMa – at 14:39

Those 20 may be chosen before the Webster paper, and may be irrelevant. Then we can say we don’t buy the ‘out burst’. We need newer samples. The point is, they are now under more pressure to release more. We can see to it.

We can give Dr. Chan a welcome mat, the Red Carpet treatment. On the first day on her job in January, we could present to the new DG of the WHO a petition for China to release all sequences.

MaMaat 14:52

NEWS

Daily Yomiuri online- ‘Health center offers flu prevention tips’

- “With the onset of the influenza season, medical experts are calling on people to be more careful as strict preventive measures against common types of flu may be effective against new types of flu, such as the mutation of avian flu into a human-to-human strain.

The municipal public health care center in Otaru, Hokkaido, published a pamphlet last month about measures to prevent new types of flu and distributed copies to public facilities…”

…”Tatsuhito Tonooka, head of the Otaru center responsible for the pamphlet, is worried about the limited amount of information available on new strains of flu and has collated the latest information, from home and abroad, on a Web site (http://homepage3.nifty.co/sank/).

Tonooka warns, “The possibility of a mutation of bird influenza virus into a new type affecting humans is increasing, so it’s necessary to make preparations…”

more here or http://tinyurl.com/y8vp78

MaMaat 14:54

ANON-YYZ, ‘We can give Dr. Chan a welcome mat, the Red Carpet treatment. On the first day on her job in January, we could present to the new DG of the WHO a petition for China to release all sequences.’

Excellent idea!

MaMaat 15:00

NEWS

The Asian Age- ‘Bird flu alert in Orissa national park’

‘Bhubaneswar, Nov. 10: A flu alert has been sounded in Orissa’s Bhitarakina National Park after migratory birds started arriving over there this winter.

Forest officials have taken precautionary steps to detect sick birds in the park and its vicinity, said Bhitarkanika divisional forest officer (DFO) A. Jena…”

…”Forest staff are keeping a watchful eye on species like bar-headed goose, bramihin duck, plover and the like as they are prone to HN51…….If HN51 mixes with a human influenza strain, it could spark off human influenza pandemic. World Health Organisation has advised all member states, including India, to monitor such type of strain, said Basudev Tripathy, a wildlife researcher with Wildlife Institute of India (WII), Dehra Dun.

WII has also identified 173 places across the country, including two in Orissa — Chilika lake and Bhitarkanika — which are important sites for congregation of migratory plumed species…”

more here or http://tinyurl.com/tct9y

Klatu – at 15:47

H5N1 Sequence Hoarding Should End

Recombinomics Commentary November 10, 2006

Jia said the Fujian-like strain, which Guan said had emerged in March 2005, was actually the same as bird flu viruses found in Hunan in February 2004 in terms of genetic sequencing.

“Guan said he wanted to alert the world with the paper, but why didn’t he report the markets with virus-carrying birds to the government if he truly believed in his findings?” Jia asked.

He said there were 10 confirmed poultry outbreaks in seven provinces of China this year, adding 95 percent of domestic birds had been vaccinated.

-

“The above comments extended the back and forth disagreements about relatively minor points, and create distractions from the real issue, which is the release of sequences from H5N1 in China. Much of the discussion centers on splitting hairs which is driven by different definitions. Many sequences have been published, so the overall picture of H5N1 spread and evolution are clear.

The definition of the “Fujian-like” strain in the PNAS paper really centers on changes in the H5N1 sequence in or near the receptor binding domain. All parties are well aware of this novel cleavage site, LRERRRK_R, which was first reported in Nature over a year ago. The partial HA sequence of the isolate, A/duck/Fujian/1734/2005, included the full sequence of the HA cleavage site. Earlier isolates, dating back to 2003, had lost a K. These isolates were from Hunan and Taiwan. The Taiwan isolate was from a duck being smuggled in from Fujian province. Both sequences were published in 2004.

China’s Ministry of Health was well aware of the 1734 sequence, because it was used in the MOH report dated January 20, 2006. Moreover, the HA cleavage site of published and unpublished human isolates showed that all had the new Fujian cleavage site. Hong Kong University also published the sequences in March, 2006 showing that isolates from Malaysia and Laos had the novel cleavage site as did sequences from wild birds in Hong Kong, published in June. Moreover, the WHO pandemic vaccine targets included one of the sequences from one of the fatal human cases in Anhui, which, like all human H5N1 cases from China, had the novel cleavage site.

Thus, all parties were well aware of the spread of the Fujian strain long before the PNAS paper was published. the paper had about 250 HA sequences with the Fujian cleavage site. However, there were approximately 150 additional sequences that had different cleavage sites, many of which were also novel.

Moreover, many of the sequences had changes in the receptor binding domain, including isolates from Hunan that had some of the changes found in the newly released sequence from Shanxi. Thus, although there are clear differences between isolates from northern and southern China, these is also recombination between these isolates to generate regions of identity.

The sequences clearly show increased genetic variation in the receptor binding domain and the HA cleavage site. These changes, or combinations of changes can have significant biological effects, which may be species specific. These small differences inpact vaccine development, diagnostic PCR tests which require primer matches, and determination of transportation and transmission of influenza genetic information, which originates in both high and low pathogenic avian influenza.

‘’‘Both squabbling groups have very large amounts of unpublished sequence information for all eight H5N1 gene segments and the time to stop hoarding has past. H5N1 is rapidly evolving and becoming increasingly diverse, as is easily seen by simply comparing receptor binding domain or cleavage site changes.

However, these changes are in all eight gene segments, and the sequence data of the H5N1 isolates in the PNAS paper as well as the sequences from northern China, should be released immediately, along with other hoarded sequences such as those from H5N1 outbreaks in Europe and H5 isolates in North America, which also show recombination with H5N1 in China.’‘’

http://tinyurl.com/yxur6g

ANON-YYZ – at 15:53

Klatu – at 15:47

Webster et al hoarding sequences too?

Europe, and North America?

Klatu – at 16:10

ANON-YYZ – at 11:28 wrote:

“Klatu – at 11:19 I think the wheels where already greased

I don’t quite understand what you mean. Are you saying that as China decided to sponsor Chan for the DG election, it also decided to release the samples or are you saying that Chan’s election will result in no samples released?”


Dr. Chan has dual citizenship, she obtained Canadian citizenship during medical education in Canada, she is still a citizen of China, as are her family. Dr. Chan will not be impartial. The keen interest that Chinese officials displayed in getting her appointed as Director-General of WHO, suggests that they feel Dr. Chan will be a team player. China will release as little or as much information to her/others as suits their purposes.

 You may have noticed that releasing H5N1 sequences, was not her first priority. It might be difficult to address  valid concerns around Africa and women’s health during a pandemic. My 2-cents.

“Chan said she would give attention to reducing the burden of diseases, improving health systems and other health issues, but she said what she most cared about is women and Africans. “

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/401188.cms

Klatu – at 16:14

ANON-YYZ – at 15:53 wrote:

Klatu – at 15:47 Webster et al hoarding sequences too? Europe, and North America?


The surprizing reference to Webster was published in a Chinese Daily (not unexpected). I would expect to here more about this.

Sequence hoarding is going on in Europe, Canada, and the US as well - in my opinion.

Klatu – at 16:25

Style and substance: Italy’s bird flu dynamo

10 November 2006

SciDevNet

“In the worldwide effort to combat the H5N1 bird flu virus, one of the most pressing aspects is openness about data. If genetic sequences of viral samples from round the world are made publicly available, this facilitates tracking, studying and containing the virus.

‘’‘In this article, Martin Enserink profiles Ilaria Capua, the Italian ‘influenza diva’ who has set in motion the global movement to share information on bird flu: GISAID (the Global Initiative on Sharing Avian Influenza Data).

Capua braved scientists’ concerns about being scooped by others if they openly share their genetic sequences. Her actions won her the annual award from ProMed, an email list run by the International Society for Infectious Diseases.’‘’

Beyond this, Capua pioneered a controversial vaccination strategy to eradicate a bird flu strain affecting poultry farms in northern Italy in 2000 and 2001.”

http://tinyurl.com/y4mcct

Any chance China will allow Dr. Capua to be Chan’s understudy?

Leo7 – at 17:35

Klatu and AnonXYZ:

Webster reported months ago he held back sequences for publishing a paper. That isn’t news.

DennisCat 21:21

We have already talked about the role of Vit.D here but here is a newer study. (to be published in Dec)

Deficiency in vitamin D may predispose people to infection

“In the July 2005 FASEB Journal, Adrian F. Gombart of the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) and his colleagues reported that vitamin D boosts production in white blood cells of one of the antimicrobial compounds that defends the body against germs. … On the basis of more than 100 articles that he collected, Cannell and seven other researchers now propose that vitamin D deficiency may underlie a vulnerability to infections by the microbes that cathelicidin targets. These include bacteria, viruses, and fungi, the group notes in a report available online for the December Epidemiology and Infection… Molecular geneticist John H. White of McGill University in Montreal and his colleagues were the first to observe that cathelicidin production is ramped up by vitamin D—or, more specifically, by the hormone 1,25-D, the vitamin’s active form (SN: 10/9/04, p. 232: http://www.sciencenews.org/articles/20041009/bob8.asp). Through a cascade of events, vitamin D transforms into a compound, called a prehormone, that circulates in blood and then is converted locally, as needed, into 1,25-D. …

http://tinyurl.com/yyxsyh

Klatu – at 22:34

Bird flu samples on way to US

 We hope that in the future these scientists will be sitting down together and they will have fewer discussions in the media…

(China Daily) Updated: 2006–11–11 10:01

The latest shipment of bird flu virus samples from China is expected to reach the United States next week, senior health officials said in Beijing on Friday.

(photo)

Jia Youling, China’s chief veterinary officer, holds a news conference at the State Council Information Office in Beijing November 10, 2006.

[Reuters]

“Following the five bird flu strains delivered in 2004, the Ministry of Agriculture has provided 20 more virus samples to the World Health Organization,” China’s Chief Veterinary Officer Jia Youling told a press conference organized by the State Council Information Office.

The samples will be sent to a WHO collaborating laboratory with the US Centers for Disease Control (CDC), he said. “We are happy about the development,” Henk Bekedam, the WHO’s China representative, told China Daily.

“I don’t know what kind of clearance they’ll have to go through on the other side, how long it will take, but we expect the CDC can confirm they have received them some time next week.” China told the WHO Beijing office on March 1 that it was ready to provide the 20 samples requested by the UN organization in early February, according to Jia.

But it took time to arrange the logistics and go through customs procedures for both the Chinese side, the WHO and the recipient of the shipment of highly pathogenic virus samples, Jia said. China has been co-operative in sharing bird flu information and samples, despite four of five samples submitted in 2004 being misused by some foreign researchers, he added.

The WHO made the samples available to foreign researchers, who twice published the genetic sequence and other data of four of the five samples without giving credit to the Chinese scientists who did the research. Bekedam said he had apologized on behalf of the WHO collaborating centre and he hoped there would not be a repeat of the situation. He stressed that sharing information and sharing samples is key in the fight against communicable and new diseases.

At Friday’s press conference, Jia and his colleagues categorically rejected claims by US and Hong Kong researchers that a new, vaccine-resistant H5N1 virus variant, called Fujian-like, was isolated in southern China, which caused five recent human infections in the region. The researchers claimed in a paper published last week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States that the virus had already triggered an outbreak in neighbouring countries.

Commenting on the study, Jia said: “There is no such new ‘Fujian-like variant’ at all. It is utterly groundless to assert that the outbreak of bird flu in Southeast Asia was caused by avian influenza in China.” He said the data cited in the paper were “unauthentic” and the research methodology was not based on science.

The WHO’s Bekedam said: “We hope that in the future these scientists will be sitting down together and they will have fewer discussions in the media but more discussions among scientists, and then that we can all share what their finding is.”

At a press conference on the so-called Fujian-like variant on Thursday in Geneva, Minister of Health Gao Qiang said he had issued a formal invitation to the WHO, asking the organization to send experts to China to judge the real situation.

“These experts can go to any place in China, and we hope they can evaluate China’s avian flu control situation in a scientific and technical way,” he was quoted as saying by the Xinhua News Agency.

Gao said the Chinese Government is open, transparent, objective and responsible in the prevention and control of bird flu.

http://tinyurl.com/yn3uqt

======

Recombinomics Commentary

November 10, 2006

Thus, all parties were well aware of the spread of the Fujian strain long before the PNAS paper was published. the paper had about 250 HA sequences with the Fujian cleavage site. However, there were approximately 150 additional sequences that had different cleavage sites, many of which were also novel.

Klatu – at 22:40

Klatu – at 22:34 wrote:

Bird flu samples on way to US

We hope that in the future these scientists will be sitting down together and they will have fewer discussions in the media…


I guess we’re getting under someone’s skin, good!

cottontop – at 22:43

Here’s a question that might seem dumb, but exactly how do you transport bird flu samples? Does someone personally assist the samples on a plane? Ship UPS?

Klatu – at 22:50

Leo7 – at 17:35 Klatu and AnonXYZ:

Webster reported months ago he held back sequences for publishing a paper. That isn’t news.


I guess you are right.

Klatu – at 22:51

This is also old news.


Text of Dr. Capua’s Letter Regarding Bird-Flu Samples March 13, 2006 5:54 a.m.

Below is the text of Dr. Capua’s email letter urging colleagues to post bird-flu samples in a public database. (Some contact information has been omitted to protect privacy.)


Messaggio originale-----

Da: Ilaria Capua - IZSVe [mailto:[log in to unmask]] Inviato:giovedì 16 febbraio 2006 12.26 Oggetto:Nigerian and Italian HA sequences

Dear All,

Several of you have asked me to have (reserved) access to the sequence data on the recent avian HPAI H5N1 strains we have isolated. This is to inform you that we have decided to deposit the full HA sequence of the Nigerian and Italian H5N1 viruses in a public database, as we truly believe that collaboration between medical and veterinary virologists is essential to improve knowledge on the H5N1 epidemic, and that sharing sequences will be beneficial to all. We invite other scientists to follow our example, as we are convinced that information generated with public funds should be used primarily to improve knowledge on public health issues and that making significant information unavailable “until it is published” could slow down the process of understanding the dynamics of this epidemic - which is not what most of us are paid for.

Accession numbers will be available on the OFFLU website shortly. Please feel free to forward this email to any colleagues you believe could be interested in accessing the sequence data.

Kind regards Ilaria Capua

OIE/FAO and National Reference Laboratory for Newcastle Disease and Avian Influenza Virology Department Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale delle Venezie Viale dell’Universita’ 10 35020 Legnaro Padova, Italy

                                   * * *

Below is the text of an email from David Lipman, director of the National Center for Biotechnology Information in Bethesda, Md., which runs GenBank, to Dr. Capua, after she wrote to her colleagues asking them to publicly release their bird-flu sequences. (Some contact information has been omitted to protect privacy.)


Messaggio originale-----

Da: Lipman, David (NIH/NLM/NCBI) Inviato: venerdì 3 marzo 2006 15.00 [Ilaria Capua] Oggetto: Thank you

Dear Professor Capua -

I read the article about your position on access to H5N1 sequence data and I’m writing to thank you for taking your position on access to influenza sequence data. Like you, I believe that putting publication priority over the health of the public is wrong. If there is anything we can do to help you in your work, please contact me directly.

Sincerely,

‘’‘David J. Lipman, M.D. Director, NCBI/NLM National Institutes of Health/DHHS’‘’

URL for this article: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB114221407089396217.html

Klatu – at 22:56

cottontop – at 22:43 wrote”

“Here’s a question that might seem dumb, but exactly how do you transport bird flu samples? Does someone personally assist the samples on a plane? Ship UPS?”


A slow boat from China?

Apology to Frank Loesser (1910–1969).

ANON-YYZ – at 23:00

cottontop – at 22:43

Better not be UPS. What happened if some one breaks a vial?

I think it’s shipped under very tight security and strict protocol.

Klatu – at 23:06

DennisC – at 21:21 wrote:

We have already talked about the role of Vit.D here but here is a newer study. (to be published in Dec)


Good stuff Dennis!

anon_22 – at 23:15

ANON-YYZ – at 23:00 cottontop – at 22:43

Better not be UPS. What happened if some one breaks a vial?

I think it’s shipped under very tight security and strict protocol.

Collecting, preserving and shipping specimens for the diagnosis of avian influenza A(H5N1) virus infection

It’s an 83 page 2.46 MB document!

11 November 2006

tjclaw1 – at 00:00

Problem is that many small town doctors don’t know how to handle these specimens. My family doctor told me today that they have not had any pandemic training. I mentioned something about special methods of collecting and shipping specimins and needing to send them to a special lab. She didn’t know anything about it and commented that she would just call infectious disease person. Also commented that it didn’t make sense that they were not providing any training for docs who would be expected to treat these people.

Shouldn’t CDC or HHS be making sure these docs know what to do?

nann – at 00:51

funny thing, but the Rsoe havaria map..” world map “ shows all kinds of epidemics currently going around the entire globe…and there are major out-breaks of Dengue fever, or bleeding disease as its called..I thought this disease was in Africa only, excuse my ignorance, but BF cases also cause internal hemorage as well. dont they ?

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.NewsReportsForNovember10
Page last modified on November 11, 2006, at 12:51 AM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Preparation in Hong Kong

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Preparation in Hong Kong

06 November 2006

Clawdia – at 23:43

This is from: http://www.mb.com.ph/MAIN2006110779051.html (I find this most disturbing)

US citizens in HK told to stockpile for bird flu outbreak spacer

Hong Kong (dpa) - US citizens in Hong Kong have been advised to build a three-month stockpile of food, medicine and water in their homes in case of a bird flu pandemic, a news report said Tuesday.

An advisory has been sent out to all 60,000 registered US citizens in the former British colony urging them to prepare the stockpiles ahead of the coming winter flu season.

It suggests stockpiling 4.5 litres of water per person per day and to prepare water purification equipment in case of complete infrastructure breakdown, the South China Morning Post reported.

The advisory also suggests they stock up on non-perishable foods, soap, alcohol-based hand wash, medicines, vitamins, flashlights and a portable radio, the newspaper said.

Six people died and 12 others were infected in the first modern outbreak of bird flu to jump the species barrier and attack humans in Hong Kong in 1997.

Since then, however, the city of 6.8 million has built up sophisticated safeguards against the virus and avoided further human cases despite a spate of regional outbreaks.

Hong Kong has carried out mass culls of birds and ducks when cases have been detected among poultry and birds imported from mainland China are screened for the virus.

Scientists believe bird flu may cause deaths on a global scale greater than the Spanish Flu of 1918 which killed up to 40 million if the virus mutates to jump from human to human. Printer Friendly Version

Treyfish – at 23:58

I wonder why people in this country arent being told at least 3 months,right now?

07 November 2006

Mosaic – at 00:05

Who sent the advisory? The article does not say.

Clawdia – at 00:07

I wish I knew. The original article in the South China paper may have said - I think it’s subscription, though.

Clawdia – at 00:08

Treyfish - I wonder why people in this country haven’t been being told to stock up for three months - and certainly in light of this, I wonder why no one is screaming it at us from the rooftops.

anon_22 – at 00:10

The advisory was sent by the State Department.

I guess it makes sense in that they are at one of the possible epic-centers of a pandemic, so there will be no lead time nor warning.

anon_22 – at 00:11

FYI, I’m in HK, and the local government has not told the public to do anything. I talk to people and they are just as indifferent as anywhere else. It’s very frustrating.

Treyfish – at 00:13

The state department.I posted this earlier in the news and there are some reports there.

Clawdia – at 00:13

anon-22 - do you know when this advisory was sent from State Dept., and if it was sent anywhere else?

It may make sense, but it also makes for an eye-opener, I’d think.

Treyfish – at 00:18

Weellll ,how do they inform 60,000 americans there?Telephone?Letter?Email?Would you get one?

Treyfish – at 00:19

MY eyes ARE open!

Nightowl – at 00:20

Consulate General of the U.S. Hong Kong and Macau

Treyfish – at 00:20

and we get no lead time?it doesnt take that long by plan to get here does it?The whole world is in a pandemic zone.

anon_22 – at 00:26

Nightowl’s link tells you everything.

Treyfish – at 00:20 and we get no lead time?it doesnt take that long by plan to get here does it?The whole world is in a pandemic zone.

Sorry, I’m sitting here and it looks to me like anything that happens here you guys have a lot more lead time than here. Its 6+ million people on a bit of rock, you know.

anon_22 – at 00:27

My opinion? Don’t read too much into it. It was probably written a while ago, gradually polished till it’s ready to go, and sent out now. That’s what the State Department is supposed to do.

just my 2C…

Treyfish – at 00:29

Its breaking news on the bankok post so i guess america will hear of it soon and see that they should have 3 months at least.Not 2 weeks.

Siam – at 00:52

http://travel.state.gov/travel/tips/health/health_1181.html posted by Bluesky on p4p

I checked out the State Department travel site. THey do have a warning page on H5N1 (along with other hazards http://travel.state.gov/travel/tips/health/health_1185.html )

A couple of interesting quotes.

The vast majority of the reported human cases have resulted from direct contact with H5N1-infected poultry. Although there is evidence to suggest very limited, human-to-human transmission in family groups involving close exposure to a critically ill member, there is no evidence that the virus can be easily or sustainably transmitted from human-to-human. The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention(DHHS/CDC), the WHO, and the Department of State are nonetheless concerned about the potential for the virus to adapt or mutate into a strain that can be easily transmitted in a sustained manner among humans, a characteristic that could result in a human influenza pandemic, and are working closely with other partners to prepare for the possibility of pandemic influenza.

U.S. embassies and consulates do not have supplies of this drug for use by private American citizens abroad. The Department of State has pre-positioned supplies of the drug Tamiflu at its embassies and consulates worldwide, for eligible U.S. Government employees and their families serving abroad. Americans should also be aware of the potential health risk posed by counterfeit drugs, including those represented as Tamiflu, by scam artists who sell products on the internet or in countries with lax regulations governing the production and distribution of pharmaceuticals.

In addition, the Department of State has asked its embassies and consulates to consider preparedness measures that take into consideration the fact that travel into or out of a country may not be possible, safe, or medically advisable during a pandemic. Guidance on how private citizens can prepare to shelter in place, including stocking food, water, and medical supplies, is available at the www.pandemicflu.gov website. Embassy stocks cannot be made available to private American citizens abroad and we encourage people living in an area with outbreaks of H5N1 to prepare appropriately.

It is also likely that governments will respond to a pandemic by imposing public health measures that restrict domestic and international movement, further limiting the U.S. government’s ability to assist Americans in these countries. These measures can be implemented very quickly. Areas of known H5N1 outbreaks in poultry have been quarantined by governments within 24 hours, restricting (if not preventing) movement into and out of the affected area.

Clawdia – at 02:12

I can’t help but wonder if things are worse in China than we’ve been led to believe.

Madamspinner – at 02:53

WHOA !!! My PPF just went to a NINE ! I’m off to see if I can reach my nephew in Indonesia….he’s been “out” in the field for the last month,…but maybe he’s back now.

anon_22 – at 03:23

People, calm down. :-)

I’m going to quote that piece one more time. It is not specific to Hong Kong. It is a State Department advisory, sent to all embassies in all countries as part of the whole pandemic preparedness for US staff overseas.

“US citizens in Hong Kong have been warned to build an emergency three-month stockpile of food, water and medicine as part of a survival plan in case of a bird flu pandemic.

(It is written like this cos it’s a piece from the newspaper in Hong Kong. If this was a UK newspaper, then you would read US citizens in the UK…., and it doesn’t mean that a pandemic is going to break out in the UK)

The US State Department sent an advisory warning diplomatic and consular posts around the world about the impending flu season.

Last week, a team of Hong Kong and US scientists released a report which claimed they had found a new strain of the bird flu virus H5N1 in the area, a claim Beijing disputes.

The communiqué “Pandemic influenza: preparing for possible shelter-in-place”, called on government employees and other US citizens to store non-perishable foods and 4.5 litres of water per person per day. The advisory also said that in the event of “complete infrastructure breakdown” water might need to be purified, and gives instructions on purification, including using Clorox bleach - which it said “isn’t just a laundry aid, it’s a lifesaver”.

Madamspinner – at 03:31

It is a State Department advisory, sent to all embassies in all countries as part of the whole pandemic preparedness for US staff overseas.

There’s no sign of it on Jakarta or Saraybaya sites—Embassy or Consulate s’. My nephew is high up at the Consulate in Saraybaya…I’m trying to reach him to see if he has this alert also. But he may still be out of the office.

But people are right---it would be nice if people stateside were being told 3 months vs 2 weeks ! There’s alot of difference there !

anon_22 – at 03:35

Madamspinner – at 03:31

There’s no sign of it on Jakarta or Saraybaya sites

Maybe you can email them and ask? Cos the only piece we have is this one piece of news, but on this newspiece it does say around the world.

Madamspinner – at 03:43

That’s what I’ve done. That nephew of mine is the person to ask. He’s no flunkie. It’s strange that this was supposed to be distributed all over; but yet there’s no sign of it in the worse hit country. I could call him directly but my hard line is not encrypted like his. I may not be able to get any info right away.

Edna Mode – at 07:43

anon_22 – at 03:23 People, calm down.

I am calm, as plenty of others here no doubt are. However, the action taken and the language used bears noting. Three months’ worth of supplies? Total infrastructure collapse? Uh, when was the last time you heard any U.S. department speak in those terms? Never.

The US State Department sent an advisory warning diplomatic and consular posts around the world about the impending flu season.

Source, please? I must have missed this. Thanks.

anon_22 – at 08:03

That is part of the news article from South China Morning Post, which was where the story came from, and which was posted on the news thread at 22:42 yesterday.

fredness – at 08:09

The link from Raw Story credits dba as the German press agency Deutsche Presse-Agentur GmbH.

Nightowl’s post at 00:20 points to this link http://hongkong.usconsulate.gov/ci_avian_2006110301.html

American Citizens Services Newsletter

Pandemic Influenza — Preparing for Possible Shelter-In-Place U.S. Consulate General for Hong Kong and Macau

November 3, 2006

The U.S. Department of State recently sent a cable to all diplomatic and consular posts entitled “Pandemic Influenza: Preparing for Possible Shelter-In-Place”. The cable’s main intent was to provide guidance to all staff regarding “shelter-in-place”. That is, in the event of severe pandemic influenza with high morbidity, the public may be advised to self-quarantine. Therefore, current guidance notes that families should be prepared to “shelter-in-place” for up to twelve weeks, and maintain sufficient food and water supplies to accommodate that entire period.

Just as in the United States, U.S. government employees and their families overseas have primary responsibility for maintaining adequate supplies of food to shelter-in-place. This also applies to private U.S. citizens. For the long term, families are advised to store foods that are non-perishable, do not require refrigeration, or preparation (including the use of water), or cooking. The cable also advises that families should store one gallon of water per person per day.

Potable Water

Please note that at this time, Hong Kong’s water supply is potable. In the event of complete infrastructure breakdown, water supply that is currently potable in some areas or countries may not remain so. However, water can be purified in several ways. Boiling is a reliable method for killing microbes and parasites. Bring water to a rolling boil and continue boiling for at least ten minutes. Also, regular Clorox Bleach isn’t just a laundry-aid, it’s a lifesaver (use only regular Clorox bleach, not Fresh Scent or Lemon Fresh). In an emergency, one gallon of Regular Clorox Bleach purifies 3,800 gallons of drinking water. First, let water stand until particles settle. Filter the particles if necessary with layers of cloth, coffee filters, or fine paper towels. Pour the clear water into an uncontaminated container and add Regular Clorox Bleach per the below indicated ratio, mix well, and wait 30 minutes. Water should have a slight bleach odor.

Ratio of Clorox Bleach to Water for Purification:

2 drops of Regular Clorox Bleach per quart of water 8 drops of Regular Clorox Bleach per gallon of water 1/2 teaspoon Regular Clorox Bleach per five gallons of water If water is cloudy, double the recommended dosages of Clorox Bleach.

To insure that Clorox Bleach is at its full strength, rotate or replace your storage bottle every three months. Also, don’t forget to sanitize the water storage containers. To sanitize containers and utensils, mix one tablespoon of Regular Clorox Bleach with one gallon of water, creating a Sanitizing Solution. Always wash and rinse the items first, then let each item soak in Clorox Bleach Sanitizing Solution for two minutes. Drain and air dry.

Please remember that water in dehumidifiers is also potable, but be sure to sanitize the dehumidifier water container.

Emergency Supply List

The U.S. Government’s “one-stop” web site on avian influenza, www.PandemicFlu.gov, provides a sample list of foodstuffs and other emergency supplies for stocking:

Examples of food and non-perishables:

Ready-to-eat canned meats, fish, fruits, vegetables, beans and soups Protein or fruit bars Dry cereal or granola Peanut butter or nuts Dried fruit Crackers Canned juices Bottled water Canned or jarred baby food and formula Pet food

Examples of medical, health and emergency supplies:

Prescribed medical supplies such as glucose and blood-pressure monitoring equipment Soap and/or alcohol-based (60% - 95%) hand wash Medicines for fever, such as acetaminophen or ibuprofen Thermometer Anti-diarrhea medication Vitamins Fluids with electrolytes Cleansing agents Flashlight Batteries Portable radio Manual can opener Garbage bags Tissues, toilet paper

To better help plan for “shelter-in-place”, all U.S. citizens are encouraged to refer to the www.PandemicFlu.gov website, as well as the World Health Organization website (www.who.int/en/). Please also visit the U.S. Consulate General website for further information: Avian Flu.

We will continue to distribute and share pertinent information on Influenza Pandemic Preparedness as we receive it.

Mari – at 08:12

Note that the advisory calls for “foods that are non-perishable, do not require refrigeration, or preparation (including the use of water), or cooking.” That sounds like canned food and crackers to me.

Okieman – at 08:46

This might just be the beginning point of telling American citizens (ultimately, in the US) to stock more. In other words, this will begin the discussion in the news media, and kick the ball rolling a bit farther down the field concerning SIP preparation.

A point to think about is the fact that if a pandemic occurs other countries will have their hands full feeding their own people. If you are an American you might not get the same consideration as one of their own people. It would be best to be prepared to get through at least the first wave when there will surely be travel restrictions.

Pixie – at 08:48

The thing about the U.S. government is that it’s pretty big, and sometimes one hand does not really know what the other is doing.

The State Department may have some forward thinking individuals who are very aware of the threat of H5N1 and who have the authority to take action on their own to ensure the safety of their people.

The CDC and Leavitt’s group at DHS have publicly disagreed about what to advise the populace on what course of action to take and about the need to do so. For a U.S. announcement, things would have to be very agreed upon and highly coordinated and choreographed. That may not be the case with State Department advisories, which most American citizens at home will never see anyway.

Hopefully there will be more clarity in direction ensuing after both the elections in the U.S. today and this week’s election of the new DG at WHO. Hopefully.

anon_22 – at 08:51

I have a thought. If US citizens run out of food or water, it is the responsibility of the Consulate aka State Department to take care of them, and eventually to help them get home. I’m sure that puts some impetus into the State Department’s sense of urgency!

I wouldn’t want to be on consular staff in such situations…

anon_22 – at 08:54

I remember now that when SARS broke out, the US consulate in Hong Kong evacuated all non-essential personnel and their families.

The reason was not the particularly high risk of infection, but the fact that if someone gets sick, and local hospitals are swamped, then the Consulate has to Medivac the patient back home. The cost of doing that for even one person suffering from infectious disease is astronomical. And they (the officials) were told in no uncertain terms that the normal health insurance would not pay for that.

Pixie – at 08:57

anon_22 - at 8:51

Consulates are also telling non-governmental Americans that there will be no Tamiflu for them if they are caught in a foreign land and pandemic hits.

Because my children’s pediatrician practices in a neighboring town we do not live in, she will not have the authority to dispense that town’s portion of the strategic stockpile of Tamiflu to my children. I doubt that governments elsewhere will be more generous, and they may be loathe to distribute Tamiflu to foreigners who find themselves on their doorstep (such generousit certainly can’t be counted on).

If the consulates are warning American travelers and expats that there will be no Tamiflu for them, I doubt if there will be much they can do to help stranded citizens with food and water issues either. Makes me rethink that whole vacation idea I had…

Clawdia – at 11:49

I do not think this event should be played down - I for one will take it at face value until I learn otherwise. I think this is a significant development.

I do not think this is something that’s been in the works getting polished before being released - I think something tripped a trigger, somewhere, and this is the result.

tjclaw1 – at 11:55

The date at the bottom of the State Department advisory is July 2006. This is not a new development.

Treyfish – at 11:57

just made the news?

enza – at 12:07

Clawdia—”I think something tripped a trigger, somewhere, and this is the result.”

How could the hivemind of FW have missed it?

Treyfish – at 12:11

It was breaking in hong kong.Why is it “new” now?Also on Newsnow.and Bankockpost?

Commonground – at 12:20

From Dr. Niman at the CurEvents:

The three isolates with three changes are in Shantou.

Shantou is next door to Hong Kong.

What did the US tell Hong Kong residents to do?

Here’s his two Commentaries:
Commentary

H5N1 RBD Changes Increase Pandemic Concerns in China Recombinomics Commentary November 7, 2006

The recent H5N1 sequences from China include four sequences from geese in Shantou (A/goose/Shantou/2086/2006, A/goose/Shantou/239/2006, A/goose/Shantou/2104/2006, A/goose/Shantou/7775/2006) that have four non-synonomous changes in or near the receptor binding domain (V214M, K222R, V223I, and S227R). Changes at position 227 (S227N) have been associated with increased affinity for human 2,6 receptors and decreased affinity for avian 2,3 receptors. Although affinity chnages for this particular combination of chnages, the presence of this number of changes in or near the receptor binding domain.

These chnages appear to have been generated via recombination because two of the changes are circulating in northern China (K222R in A/goose/Jilin/hb/2203(H5N1)) or Japan (V223I in A/chicken/Yamaguchi/7/2004(H5N1)) and recombination between H5N1 in northern China nad Japan is not uncommon.

As the diversity in receptor binding domain sequences increase, the potential for additional chnages via receombination also increases. Thus, circulation of a large number of receptor binding domain sequences co-circulating in H5N1 creates a serious pandemic concern.

This concern is increased by the withholding of current sequences as well as a questionable surveillance system, since only one Qinghai sequences has been reported in eastern China.

The sequences from avian and human H5N1 isolates from China in 2005 and 2006 should be released immediately. H5N1 sequences from 1997–2004 demonmstrate frequent recombination in northern China, and a robust database is required to determine the likelihood of additional recombination.

2nd Commentary:
Commentary

H5N1 Receptor Binding Domain Changes in Shantou China Recombinomics Commentary November 7, 2006

H5N1 sequences from patients in Egypt were released today. The S227N change in the receptor binding domain was reported for one of the eight sequences, bringing the number of human Qinghai sequences with S227N to three. This change was predicted on October 22, 2005 in a warning issued for an increase in the efficiency of H5N1 transmission in humans. S227N was subsequently confirmed in the index case for Turkey in January 2006 and was also found in a second isolate from Turkey.

To date, only four human sequences from Turkey have been released, so the number of patients positive for S227N remains unknown to the public. Similarly, only one sequence from the cluster of fatal infections in Azerbaijan has been released. The three S227N positive patients in Turkey and Egypt suggests additional unreported sequences from the beginning of 2006. At this time more H5N1 will be migrating into the Middle East, increasing the likelihood of additional acquisitions from H9N2 infected poultry, since H9N2 is endemic to the region.

Sequences released last week also show receptor binding domain changes in H5N1 from a goose in Shantou. The three changes, K222R, I223V, and S227R, within such a small region, suggests these changes were also acquired by recombination. The high level of H5N1 detected in China raise concerns that additional recombination events will further increase the genetic diversity. The Shantou goose isolate, A/goose/Shantou/2086/2006 also has a novel HA cleavage site, QRERRKKR, again signaling rapid genetic change, which is a characteristic of increased frequencies of recombination among genetically diverse viruses. Moreover, the Qinghai strain, A/Guinea fowl/Shantou/1431/2006, is also present in Shantou, increasing the likelihood of acquisition of PB2 E627K by recombination or reassortment.

SnowDogat 12:21

tjclaw1 - at 11:55 The date at the bottom of the State Department advisory is July 2006. This is not a new development.


Where did you see the July 2006 date? Looking at the US Consulate website Nightowl linked too I see a Nov. 3rd 2006 date…..

tjclaw1 – at 12:41

Maybe we’re not looking at the same thing? I was looking at this, posted by

Siam – at 00:52 http://travel.state.gov/travel/tips/health/health_1181.html

scroll down to the bottom, it says July 2006.

Was there a different one sent out more recently? Does anybody have a differnt link to an actual advisory?

Sthrn Tr – at 12:56

Having recently visited HK, I’m thinking most U.S. government employees, there, are apartment dwellers. I hope they have enough room.

Treyfish – at 13:03

fredness at 8:09 has the nov 3rd link.

Jane – at 13:11

tjclaw1, look at http://www.tinyurl.com/vdndw for the State Dept. notice. It’s different - more specific and more alarming.

barn owl – at 13:25

Follow-up thought on anon_22′s 8:55 post, in addition to the high cost of bringing sick individuals out…they may not want another replay of CNN “the world watches the Superdome after Katrina type event”…without taking some measures at prevention.

Bird Guano – at 13:25

Treyfish – at 00:18

Weellll ,how do they inform 60,000 americans there?Telephone?Letter?Email?Would you get one?


Through the Warden system.

E-mail and local websites usually if the infrastructure supports it, which in Hong Kong it does.

Pixie – at 13:41

Commonground is right - Niman’s notice of the change in the recptor binding domain area (227S) in samples found next door to Hong Kong, (not to mention confirmation that it is also in Egypt), is significant.

In a crisis in a foreign country, the first job of a U.S. consulate is to try to ensure the safety of Americans. They’ll go to great lengths to do so, even bringing in the Navy and evacuating as was recently done in Lebanon. However, if a pandemic strain errupts quickly, or even if we see a concentrated outbreak similar to the one in Turkey (which had S227N), a place like Hong Kong may see its airports closed quickly. Due to the nature of this problem, evacuation may not be prudent, or a possibility (thus the advisory to have on hand 3 months of food and water).

Treyfish – at 13:43

thanks bg.

Clawdia – at 13:44

BG - what’s your take on this?

Treyfish – at 13:49

It will be a crisis here too,so when do we get the 3 month news?Hahahahha

Commonground – at 13:52

Thank you Pixie. I was waiting for someone to connect those dots…….

Okieman – at 14:37

It just occured to me. What do you do when you are hacked at China for not releasing viral sequences, and at the same time are wondering what the effect would be upon a population when official word goes out to stock up on 3 months of food?

The answer: Send out a notice like the one discussed in this thread, and make sure it makes the local newspapers in a city like Hong Kong that has 60,000 Americans present (to also spread the news). The reaction upon local markets should be revealing.

Just a wild-haired guess everyone. But it should still be interesting as what happens in Hong Kong in the next few days or weeks.

Treyfish – at 14:50

whole lotta preppin goin on ..alrite …. oh yeah…uh huh…

Clawdia – at 15:03

Does anyone know if this information has already been given out to the people in HK at whom it is targeted, or is this something that is going to be relayed to them in the future?

Just wondering about the reactions to the whole thing from those for whom it is intended.

NawtyBitsat 15:11

Could this be timed to affect the WHO DG election?

Grace RN – at 15:22

it’s not on the website for the embassy for tokyo, Japan

http://tokyo.usembassy.gov/e/acs/tacs-newsletter20061101.html

Pixie – at 15:50

NawtyBits – at 15:11 Could this be timed to affect the WHO DG election?

Doubt it. This consular advisory is more pragmatic than strategic. Everybody has been hoping since May that no major news pandemic-wise needs to be released until a new DG is elected though.

Homesteader – at 15:53

One would think this announcement would be mentioned in MSM by tomorrow.

pablo escobar – at 16:12

Trying to find more info, I ran across this pdf from Commander, Navy Installations Command.

http://www.nepmu5.med.navy.mil/assets/Pandemic%20Flu%20Planning.pdf

Funny slide, page 3 says… Playing with sick chickens, although fun, is dangerous.

Gotta love those boys with expensive toys.

pablo escobar – at 16:15

and from page 7

National Security Presidential Directive (NSPD) being discussed that will include sensitive aspects not contained in the National plan

Intelligence and surveillance Mortuary affairs

Treyfish – at 16:25

didnt see anything on stars and stripes.

Leo7 – at 16:37

I’m waiting to see what the people who received the cable do. Will there be a stampede of dependents back home? That will be a key to what they’ve been privately told. Telling people to prep is prudent because HK did learn some things from SARS, but if the Americans are alarmed we may see a lot of them come home. By the way, most of those Americans are living in resort like high rise apartments in American grouped areas. A lot of them work in finance and as we know the world bank is on the problem. Interesting to see what occurs…

GreenlandDocat 16:46

Much to do about nothing. Absolutely irrelevant. I wonder, will those that jump into panic attacks at every little piece of news every other month - ever realize that they have been wrong so many times? And realize when it really happens?

Homesteader – at 17:05

GreenlandDoc 16:46

I hear Margaret Chan is looking for an assistant.

Edna Mode – at 17:21

GreenlandDoc – at 16:46 Much to do about nothing. Absolutely irrelevant. I wonder, will those that jump into panic attacks…

So it’s considered panic to express healthy curiosity in a news development now? Okie dokie then.

The majority of the posts on this thread, with a couple of obvious exceptions, have been reasonable exchanges of information and opinions. Certainly, the discussion has been no more speculative than 99% of the other threads on the wiki.

Makes one wonder if the soothers aren’t experiencing a bit o’ projection.

As for being wrong so many times, hallelujah that so many of us have been wrong so far. May it ever last!

Treyfish – at 17:38

Yeah,the state depeartment casually says stock up for the coming winter season.Maybe THEY are wrong?

Patch – at 17:49

Thanks GreenlandDoc. Thanks for bumping me back into reality.

It is interesting to read this entire thread and see how anon_22 tries to calms things down, yet the fire keeps smoldering until it’s ablaze again.

Every theory here is given prominence and consideration. Until GD gives his/hers. And suddenly, people like Homesteader start taking jabs.

I’m amazed that there are people who have believe the people that brought you Katrina and Iraq, can conspire to do what so many here believe. I just don’t think it’s possible. TPTB aren’t that good at it!

I agree that it’s interesting that they recommend prepping for 3 months to US resident in Hong Kong, while telling folks here in the US to plan for much shorter periods of time. I’m not quite sure what’s up with that, except to say that they expect delivery systems to be “better” in the states, should a pandemic develop.

But I have to agree with GD. The timing is likely irrelevant. It was likely written months ago and is just now being released. I believe it’s becoming SOP to release memos about Panflu and prepping, regardless of the current events.

Patch – at 17:50

Thanks GreenlandDoc. Thanks for bumping me back into reality.

It is interesting to read this entire thread and see how anon_22 tries to calms things down, yet the fire keeps smoldering until it’s ablaze again.

Every theory here is given prominence and consideration. Until GD gives his/hers. And suddenly, people like Homesteader start taking jabs.

I’m amazed that there are people who have believe the people that brought you Katrina and Iraq, can conspire to do what so many here believe. I just don’t think it’s possible. TPTB aren’t that good at it!

I agree that it’s interesting that they recommend prepping for 3 months to US resident in Hong Kong, while telling folks here in the US to plan for much shorter periods of time. I’m not quite sure what’s up with that, except to say that they expect delivery systems to be “better” in the states, should a pandemic develop.

But I have to agree with GD. The timing is likely irrelevant. It was likely written months ago and is just now being released. I believe it’s becoming SOP to release memos about Panflu and prepping, regardless of the current events.

fredness – at 18:35

What is suprising is the advice of stockpiling for 12 weeks. All pandemic models support that as a minimum time of a wave during which it would be prudent to avoid contact with the public. Nothing sensational. There is no current increase in outbreaks.

While there is no cause for panic, it is a shock to see such an important message to the public released in such an inconspicuous way.

I believe most people here are frustrated by the fact that while experts and the government say this is important, there is no large effort (campaign) to advertise www.pandemicflu.gov. There is no clear recommendation to stockpile to prepare for “shelter in place” on that site.

Bird Guano – at 19:42

Clawdia – at 13:44

BG - what’s your take on this?


The suggestions are DEFINITELY more in line with what we were told as public safety at our class.

Perhaps they are slowly aligning the public with the private recommendations.

I do think it’s significant to have it in black and white.

VERY significant.

Not you ( but many other’s here) are screaming Don’t Panic.

Who’s in a panic ? I think it’s a normal adjustment reaction to have a bit of a pucker after reading this.

Bird Guano – at 19:43

Patch – at 17:50

But I have to agree with GD. The timing is likely irrelevant. It was likely written months ago and is just now being released. I believe it’s becoming SOP to release memos about Panflu and prepping, regardless of the current events.


I have to agree.

Things take MONTHS to get out of the approval cycle at State.

But the message IS consistant with what I have been exposed to privately.

Bird Guano – at 19:45

pablo escobar – at 16:15

and from page 7

National Security Presidential Directive (NSPD) being discussed that will include sensitive aspects not contained in the National plan

Intelligence and surveillance Mortuary affairs


I discussed that PDD several weeks ago here.

Do a search for PDD and there are a couple of threads on it with the declassified outline.

ANON-YYZ – at 19:47

Choosing to announce this outside of the U.S. is likely a carefully thought out decision. When the same thing is announced here, the impact won’t be as big, coz it’s half-old news.

Bird Guano – at 19:54

Ah yes the.

Oh THAT. That’s OLD news.

(hand brush)

Yeppers

LauraBat 20:07

Another reason to tell people 12 weeks abroad (vs MAYBE 2 here) is in many countries it is not always easy to get necessary supplies. Here it was sooooo easy for me to waltz into Wally world and buy a bunch of 5 gallon collapsible water containers - not so in the former Soviet states I lived in a few years ago. We had to bring in suticases full of things like vitamins, Advil, contact solution, etc. And we’re not talking Somalia here; Poland, Russia and Ukraine. Medical care is pretty bad - you wouldn’t want your dog to have puppies there. We certainly adapted our food preferences, made do without certain things, etc. but I never trusted local “medicines” which were usually locally produced. Embassy employees typically get access to employee shops and can get many produts. But there are lots of other Americans living and working abroad that don’t have access to certain things. I would not want to be there if TSHTF - it would be tough to get a flight out of the country, or even back to the US. Even harder to find food in a big city where corrupion is endemic. Living abroad can feel very isolating even in teh best of times, so to be in a foreign country with pandemic flu, often not speaking the local language all that well - it would be pretty tough.

Still, it does beg the question why them and not the general population being told 3 months?

ANON-YYZ – at 20:09

It just occurred to me that this announcement was dated November 3rd, on the eve of a U.S. election, news of which will crowd out such an announcement in a foreign country. so it didn’t become headline news on CNN. Speculation, of course.

Clawdia – at 20:11

Thanks, BG. I didn’t think you meant me when you mentioned those saying not to panic. :)

But, if anybody thinks I’m in a panic, think again. I’m living in a state of perpetually heightened awareness. I’m doing what I think needs to be done. Emotionally, I’m a tad spooked - but as BG said (and thanks, BG), it’s normal not to feel so good after getting slapped upside the head with this in black and white.

I think it’s a good thing. I also think it’s a significant thing. Just how significant is something we’ll see in the future . . .

Snicklefritz – at 20:25

I view this announcement in the light of other information coming from, or in spite of, the Chinese Government. There is a growing list of contrary articles, going back for over a year now, from the Ministry of Health (which appears to be trying to report truthfully) and the Ministry of Agriculture, which is stomping on everything that could be perceived to be negative. I also note that in the last week the Foreign Ministry has weighed in on the side of the Agriculture Ministry (ie the recent article about the Fujian-type strain). I wonder if the virus isn’t out of control, and the PRC is now trying desperately to control the information instead. If that’s the way it is, this warning from the State Department is very serious indeed.

Clawdia – at 20:35

Snicklefritz - that’s one of my primary concerns, and one reason I see this as such a serious development. I just can’t see it having been done lightly.

tjclaw1 – at 20:54

I kinda use CIDRAP as a barometer. Got an e-mail update from them tonight and they are now reporting it. I take that very seriously and think it is very relevant, as opposed to GD who thinks it is “Much to do about nothing. Absolutely irrelevant.” If CIDRAP thought it was “absolutely irrelevant” they wouldn’t be reporting it.http://tinyurl.com/u5v2c

No, I don’t see panic,I see concern. Will be interesting to see if the current federal recommendations will be revised upward.

Treyfish – at 21:08

Word gettin around.

Edna Mode – at 22:24

Patch – at 17:49 The timing is likely irrelevant. It was likely written months ago and is just now being released. I believe it’s becoming SOP to release memos about Panflu and prepping, regardless of the current events.

For me, the timing has never been the point. It’s the message. Always the message. Whether it’s WHO updates or State Dept. cables. The message in this communication is substantively, materially different from anything that preceded it. We can only hope that there are other such announcements about to spring forth from the bureaucratic cogworks stateside.

Everyone who has commented about such government announcements taking forever in the making is 100% right. I actually had a meeting with a state pandemic planner today and was told virtually the identical message. A flyer that was conceived last spring and was targeted for distribution in August is just now back from the printers and ready for release.

I also agree with tjclaw1 that CIDRAP is a worthy bellweather in this and other matters.

Edna Mode – at 22:26

Make that “bellwether…”

anon for this one – at 22:43

Pixie - 1341 - In a crisis in a foreign country, the first job of a U.S. consulate is to try to ensure the safety of Americans.

I’m sorry to say that when I worked for State in a foreign country, it was my job to talk to local American women’s groups and tell them that first job is to protect the paper not the people. Shred, burn, and put in drums of acid, but protect the paper secrets. Next on the list, is protect the ambassador (by not letting him/her get hurt or thrown in the drum - LOL). Then embassy personnel, if possible. Americans outside the govt employees/families were told YOYO, we’ll help if we can, but don’t count on us. Not our job, your choice to be here, take care of yourself. The news media has changed that a bit because other countries try to “rescue” their folks and it made us look bad. But embassy folk always said, when it hits the fan, go to the Canadian or Israeli embassy. They’ll help. That’s why this notice is so unusual. SIP cause we can’t help you. I’ll be watching for dependents to be coming home. That will tell a lot. Will international schools there close? If they do, duck for cover. Essential employees stay, dependents and non-essentials go home during possible trouble. If it’s close, they’re gone.

K from Mi – at 22:44

I agree with Edna Mode. It’s the message. Recently I taught a three day influenza unit to my life science class. I gave them a handout to take home about the two week recommendation for food and water, discussed the six week recommendation made by the State of Nebraska, and the personal 3 month stockpile by Dr. Webster. The kids got it. They know that two weeks of food/water won’t be enough in a severe pandemic. A recommendation for 12 weeks of food is an acknowlegement of what the future may hold…

JWB – at 23:06

I think it’s just the third or forth ring of notices.

Yes, we are getting close, yes if you don’t have your preps shame on you, but really, a surprise?

JWB – at 23:35

There is a pattern to this. A method to the madness, if you will. TPTB had never any intention of a ‘fire alarm’. A gradual notification based on some parameters. I’m trying to fiqure out what those parameters are. Then chart the pattern. Any ideas? Flame away if you think it’s needed.

08 November 2006

Patch – at 00:16

I still think you/we are reading too much into it.

The CIDRAP website tjclaw1 @20:54 provides, clearly says:

“ The recommendation that US citizens overseas stockpile 12 weeks’ worth of food and water differs from the current federal recommendation for general pandemic preparedness. The government, on its pandemic planning Web site, recommends that US residents stockpile 2 weeks’ worth of food and water.”

IMHO, citizens abroad simply need to take extra precautions. A longer SIP term may well be one of those extra precautions. Nothing more.

I do believe, that 6 weeks prep is more realistic than 2 and I would not be surprised to see revised gov’t recommendations. Notice the CIDRAP wording says, “current federal recommendation

Cause I have to tell you…I spend a lot of time looking and see very little that would make me believe anything is changing drastically….or even significantly at this point.

Madamspinner – at 01:44

anon_22 – at 08:51

 If US citizens run out of food or water, it is the responsibility of the Consulate aka State Department to take care of them, and eventually to help them get home. I wouldn’t want to be on consular staff in such situations… 

 The reason was not the particularly high risk of infection, but the fact that if someone gets sick,  then the Consulate has to Medivac the patient back home

Anon----The Embassies’ responsibility is to “help” US citizens get back to US soil…not to feed them in this instance. Thus the warning to stock up - or get out. This is WHY my nephew in Indonesia sent his wife & 2 toddlers home in August.

 Their newborn kept getting sick; and to get her competentmedical help, they had to evac her to SINGAPORE every single time !  

 He is still at the Consulate in Sarayabaya.  And he will remain at our Consulate until there IS no Consulate anymore…kinda like when we pulled out of Saigon…he will be on the very last helo out of there. Or he’ll die taking care of the last US citizens there.

But you’re right…about not wanting to be on consulate staff……I wish he would come home…I wish he could, but he can’t and he won’t…he’s just not that kind of guy. He’s there to do a difficult job, and he’ll do it, or go down trying his best.

I have a call into him; but he is “out”; or he would have gotten back to me by now. And when he is OUT, that means he in right in the middle of a hot spot….so the longer I don’t hear from him…the more I worry for his safety.

anon_22 – at 02:32

The question of whether you are reading too much into this can be tested this way:

Are you the kind of person who freaks out (or whatever other word you use) cos no one is talking about pandemics?

Are you the kind of person who freaks out whenever pandemic is mentioned?

If you answered yes to both questions, then maybe you should rely on your reaction to news to tell you about your adjustment status than about pandemic status.

Just saying….:-)


All jokes aside, if what we do here is having the right effect, we should expect a lot more public communications about pandemics in the next few months. I really do hope it happens more often.

anon_22 – at 03:01

One other thing, the issue of 3 months preps. I don’t know if the US government will eventually (or in the near future) officially tell everyone to prep for 3 months. There are many reasons why they won’t, one of which that I hear frequently is that if everyone stays home and not work, the infrastructure collapse will be faster, etc. The other reason is most people can’t afford that.

Now, when I translate that into expats in HK, I have 2 observations. First, most of them (apart from the occasional backpacker) are highly paid in relation to local living standards, so money is not an issue. Secondly, its not their country, so who cares if people don’t go to work? It’s not their infrastructure, so the State Department has no responsibility in keeping things running for foreign countries…

And then, of course, it is a densely populated city, 7 million people with no natural resources. In an emergency, I would assume that HK will be on a priority list of places to maintain by the Chinese government pouring in resources. In such circumstances, foreigners may or may not get preferential assistance.

As I said, I wouldn’t want to be in that job right now.

anon_22 – at 03:02

In other words, double standards are likely to continue. Not that I think they are good, just telling it like it is.

LauraBat 06:19

In terms of US embassy people helping other US citizens out in times of crisis,? Not so much. A lot depends on the country, the embassy staff envolved, and who you know. We lived in countires with small expat communities so everyone knew everyone else (or someone who did). Even still, based on the fact that it’s “the government” and that many staffers, let’s just say, weren’t highly motivated to give 100% effort, it was tough to get things done when the embassy was involved. Honestly they were kind of the last reort in terms of getting things done. And if you’re an expat living in say, London, I think you will definitely be on your own. There is no way the embassy there could help the 1000′s of expats living there.

As I said before, I am very glad we are not in the situation right now, especially in a city like Hong Kong. Where we were would have been a bit more manageable - 15 minutes by car and you were in the country with plenty of farms, fresh water, etc. We were lucky that we never had major medical crises and DH worked for a company that would evac you out if there were. Not all expats are that lucky - there are lots of NGO’s, peace corps staffers, etc. who don’t have a lot of resources. The average embassy staffer isn’t making gobs of money either. Usually they are there to “check off a box” on their resume and build their career. And I can’t imagine trying to cram 3 months worth of food and water into the average Hong Kong apratment - shoeboxes!

cottontop – at 07:06

I agree with anon_22 that we should calm down a bit. the more I read over this, the more it sounds like standard “protocal.” It isn’t out of the ordinary for U.S. embassies to warn U.S. citizens of potiental danger in the country that they are in.

Pixie – at 07:28

cottontop - at 7:06

I am not one to get overexcited about any signs we’re moving toward a pandemic, primarily because I think it’s inevitable we’re going to see one. And yes it’s the job of the U.S. consulates to warn U.S. citizens of possible impending danger - that’s SOP. What is not SOP is to warn our citizens in foreign locations to stockpile 3 months worth of supplies just in case of XYZ threat. I’ve simply never seen such a recommendation before made in any circumstance.

Also, this consular advisory does not have about it the marks of a document that was “meeting-ed” to death over a long period of months. My new state pandemic plan and website most definitely does. My state’s pandemic plan has obviously been managed to death - it now says basically nothing at all and barely uses the word “pandemic.” On the other hand, this State advisory seems like it was issued by someone with a sharp sure hand, and a very informed one. This HK advisory does not sound to me like a typical document that has been watered down, with all the objectionable parts edited out as everyone in the room attaches a sticky that says “too strong, delete” to passage after passage. Maybe the HK office would like to just tell the expat Americans to go back home, but that’s untenable. As a second option, they’ve produced a pretty strong document here, with a very unusual message.

Edna Mode – at 07:44

JWB – at 23:06 I think it’s just the third or forth ring of notices.

JWB, I may not be understanding your comment correctly. Are you saying this Hong Kong thing is the third or fourth such notice recommending 12 weeks of preps? If so, please point me to other such references as I must have missed them.

Pixie – at 07:28 I am not one to get overexcited about any signs we’re moving toward a pandemic, primarily because I think it’s inevitable we’re going to see one….What is not SOP is to warn our citizens in foreign locations to stockpile 3 months worth of supplies just in case of XYZ threat. I’ve simply never seen such a recommendation before made in any circumstance.

Exactly.

cottontop – at 08:10

Pixie- I agree that it sounds strange/odd for the stockpiling recomendations. Anh I would really like to see what’s underneath that statement. But what I’m suggesting, is for the time being, let’s not get carried away, just yet. What would really make me push the panic button, is if the U.S. had told the Americans to get the hell out of the country!

NawtyBitsat 08:33

It isn’t out of the ordinary for U.S. embassies to warn U.S. citizens of potiental danger in the country that they are in.

If Hong Kong is in imminent danger of a pandemic (impending flu season), why not the rest of the world? How long does the US have until there is a outbreak if there is an outbreak in HK?

What would really make me push the panic button, is if the U.S. had told the Americans to get the hell out of the country!

Perhaps they are, not in so many words. Maybe the muddy message (get out) is in the clear message (12 weeks.)

I think we miss the forest for the trees. This “12 week” message is seemingly unprecedented. If I were in HK, and I was up to date on the panflu situation, this message says to me “Send my family back to the states for the winter, prepare for at LEAST 12 weeks, because it’s coming.” From another post on another site “SIP is Hong Kong is a death sentence.”

Pixie – at 08:34

cottontop - at 8:10 I would really like to see what’s underneath that statement.

Probably so would the 60,000 strong American expat community in HK who may right now be burning up the phone lines to the U.S. consulate, asking them to explain why they’ve put out this notice now and what has changed.

Thinlina – at 08:40

cottontop – at 08:10 US would never do that IMHO. Would you want the US citizens in HK to take the disease to your neighbourhood?

Thinlina – at 08:42

I mean the US wouldn’t say “get out of there!”

cottontop – at 08:52

Pixie- Seriously. It’s hard not to push the panic button on this one. I do believe that if we lifted that top page and peeked underneath, the chances that our blood would drain from us would be good. That’s how serious I think this has developed. However that is speculation on my part. It is very hard not to get carried away with any new piece of breaking news such as this. I’m nervous enough as it is, for fear that I don’t have enough time to get my family up to 2 months of prep. (stay calm, she chants to herself.)

I forgot to wish you a beautiful day Pixie dear!

Thinlina- No, I would not expect them to say, “get out”, but who knows. Maybe they will when this goes pandemic. They have advised citizens to leave countries on occasions.

JWB – at 09:07

Edna Mode – at 07:44 ‘’JWB – at 23:06 I think it’s just the third or forth ring of notices.

JWB, I may not be understanding your comment correctly. Are you saying this Hong Kong thing is the third or fourth such notice recommending 12 weeks of preps? If so, please point me to other such references as I must have missed them. ‘’


Please see the rumors thread : JWB – at 19:56 and Bird Guano – at 01:44

Thinlina – at 09:10

US H5N1 policy is stay-in-place quarantines, isn’t it? HK doesn’t sound very nice.

UTmomat 09:55

NawtyBits @ 8:33- “If Hong Kong is in imminent danger of a pandemic (impending flu season), why not the rest of the world? How long does the US have until there is a outbreak if there is an outbreak in HK?”

Exactly! It’s a 15 hour flight from Hong Kong to Los Angeles.

NawtyBitsat 10:18

US H5N1 policy is stay-in-place quarantines, isn’t it? HK doesn’t sound very nice.

Exactly. This is the State Department’s way of telling people, if this hits, you are stuck here. We are NOT sending potential vectors back to the US. Soooo, plan accordingly. And by saying “impending flu season” they are implying a timeline….and to me it says “soon.”

Patch – at 10:30

In one word, “Precautionary”.

IMHO, anything else and you are reading too much into it.

NawtyBitsat 11:01

In one word, “Precautionary”.

All of our prepping is precautionary.

The notice from State says words like “guidelines” and “should” and “impending flu season”. There is nothing to “read into” here. It is spelled out. Now, given that the virus would expected to be the same here as there, and show up here soon after showing up there, why are they being told 12 and we are being told 2? Do you think that they think that telling HK 12 weeks, and us only 2 weeks, that there will be plenty of warning time to allow the US to be issued guidelines for 12 weeks? Now THAT is reading too much in to it.

It makes no sense. Same virus. Essentially same outbreak time. Different guides?

crfullmoon – at 11:10

different priorities?

(If we didn’t get sent the memo, we didn’t make the triage short list? right?)

Continuity of Government w/out Continuity of the Public.

Makes sense to me; “tragicaly wrong” history unfolding, so far…

Average Concerned Mom – at 11:16

NawtyBits at 11:01

Where in the State Department advisory did you see “Impending Flu Season” or anything indicating a timeline? I don’t see that. Can you point it out to me? Thanks.

anon_22 – at 11:17

Here’s what I think, and this is absolutely my personal opinion:

If I was TPTB, I’d be flipping many times over, over this thing. Not because it is imminent, cos I don’t think it is, but because of the complexity of the mitigation. How long did it take to convince the State Department that this threat is real? Then how long did it take for the decisions to be made, then how long to filter down to implementation?

Remember that telling people to stockpile for 3 months is not the same as people stockpiling for 3 months. It takes a lot to convince them, then people have to spend tiime doing it. You guys know how time-consuming it is /has been. I’ve been doing this for a while, I have no idea how much of what I have, but it’s nowhere near 3 months of anything.

In the meantime, once the recommendation is out, you’ll have all sorts of enquiries, people asking whether they should send their kids home, whether they should send their kids home now, or the end of the next term. Or whether it is possible to bulk purchase dry food from the US (cos they are not available ther). Then you get harassed by all the businesses who say why on earth did you say that… and so on.

I personally am glad that the South China Morning Post wrote this up. Somebody got to start, going public with recommendations for SIP. Maybe that’s a safe place for the US to test the response to this recommendation? Make the recommendation, then monitor the no of Americans leaving, then you get an idea of how people back in the US might react to such kinds of recommendation.

Hmmm….

Homesteader – at 11:18

Keep in mind that history is written by the winners, not the losers, and it ain’t over ‘til its over.

. . .creeping back to my den after a weak yet tragic attempt at optimism.

Are we there yet – at 11:31

Also important to keep in mind is that US Dept of State is not HHS. State has a lot of concerns that HHS doesn’t, predominantly that the American citizens it is trying to watch out for are in foreign countries. HHS is looking at events/people/needs here at home.

I agree that they should be recommending more than 2 weeks worth of SIP supplies, but just because the State Dept. has suggested Americans living abroad stockpile 12 doesn’t mean they know something the rest of us don’t.

I am laughing as I type this because a lot of my dear fellow fluwikians love to paint TPTB as inept and not too bright and then something like this pops up and they want to paint them as clever and conniving. That’s not only ironic, it’s pretty darn funny.

By suggesting Americans abroad prep for a SIP of 12 weeks as opposed to 2, embassies and consulates take a lot of pressure off themselves. Please keep this in mind when considering the contents of the cable being discussed here. They have several pressures that HSS does not and will not ever have to operate under.

Finally, as a good friend of mine at one of the US embassies said when asked about this recent cable, “make sure to use your common sense as much of this information is influenced via the political winds.”

Average Concerned Mom – at 11:42

An advisory has been sent out to all 60,000 registered US citizens in the former British colony urging them to prepare the stockpiles ahead of the coming winter flu season.

OK — I see that the phrase (in bold) isn’t actually from the State Department cable. It is from the news report. I see nothing in the cable that suggests layig in supplies by a certain date or time. I’m just pointing that out. Not sure what it means. But news reports can sometimes be a little bit sloppy.

Commonground – at 12:05

Interesting. We sure have come a long way from “remains concerned”. The last “American Citizen’s Newsletter” sent out a little over one year ago reads:

American Citizens Services Newsletter (10/5/2005) U.S. Consulate General Hong Kong Avian Influenza Special Edition Background: Avian Influenza Steps You Can Take to Minimize Risk What the U.S. is Doing As a Government More Information

Background: Avian Influenza The U.S. Government remains concerned that the ongoing foreign outbreaks of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza in infected poultry has the potential to turn into a human influenza pandemic that would have significant international political, economic and social consequences. Since mid-2003, outbreaks of the H5N1 strain of avian influenza have been confirmed and continue to be detected among birds in Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Russia, Thailand, Vietnam and possibly Laos. More here at the site:
http://tinyurl.com/y6kvvn

TreasureIslandGalat 12:14

maybe to put this in perspective we shoudl look at the past…

What was said prior to Y2K to our expatriots?

What was said as SARS was emerging?

On that note, I think such a letter is a “heads up” to send non-necessary folks home, such as spouses and children, for their safety. Remember when SARS broke and peopel started coming home? They were “held” at the airports for a day or two to “clear” to be sure they weren’t sick. -and a few turned out to be afterall, necessitating longer quarantines of those returning from overseas. With the flu, the quarantine period will be much longer…a week vs. a day or two. Can the airports handle that if 60,000 all try to come home at once when a pandemic emerges? Maybe they want to get a bunch of folks home now before that could ever be an issue.

Clawdia – at 12:35

I’m getting tired of people accusing those of us who express concern of being in a “panic”.

I’ve yet to see anyone I thought was in panic mode, and if this development does not warrant some degree of increased concern, then I don’t know what it would take to do so.

This is significant, and anyone who says it isn’t must not be paying attention.

There’s a big difference in saying it is significant and saying it is cause for panic.

Bird Guano – at 12:54

I have to agree.

The Panic BS is wearing a little thin.

We’re not 3 yr olds.

Most here are educated professionals capable of detecting patterns and using critical thinking.

Variations in the patterns SHOULD get our attention and be investigated.

The PANIC moniker is obnoxious actually, and projects the insecurity of the labeler.

anonymous – at 13:09

Clawdia – at 12:35

Clawdia, I agree with you completely. People who may be, either consciously or unconsciously, nervous about their own or their extended family’s state of preps telling others who display normal curiosity and attentiveness to developments to calm down is just plain annoying. I have a mother. I’m married to a psychotherapist. If I need to calm down, trust me, they’ll let me know.

Laced throughout many of the posts on this thread are counterproductive, presumptuous attributions regarding everything from one’s mental state to one’s interpretation of the imminence or lack thereof of pandemic.

The facts are that a notice to stock up for three months was sent to US citizens in Hong Kong. That message is multiples of degree different from what is being told to US residents stateside. That, plain and simple, is ethically corrupt. And THAT is the issue that I am concerned with. Not whether it means the pandemic is starting tomorrow. Not how long it took the state dept. to polish its message.

I don’t know why that is so hard for people to get, but apparently, it is.

Rant over.

JWB – at 13:12

Bird Guano – at 12:54 Ditto

Edna Mode – at 13:19

That was me. I cleared my cookies.

Pixie – at 13:34

I’ve checked the gold charts for today, including Hong Kong gold, and the price of gold is down. Since Hong Kong is an historic & world renowned mercantile center, people there (citizens and professional traders alike) are well aware of its value during any calamity. Hong Kong gold traded basically unchanged last night, and London gold traded sharply down, then recovered a bit. New York is still open, and gold is still trading well under the price levels at which it traded during the previous two days.

Our friend, GS, would probably say that this is an indication that the “experts” are not particularly worried about anything, as his take on things is that they usually have a bit of an inside track. (Right, GS?) That’s one valid way to interpret things.

My take is that we are often very early here, and I expect it will take a while for this news from the American consulate in HK to be digested (although I will agree with GS that gold traders, as experts, are usually uncanily fast reactors).

Also, I’m also not sure how many people there really are in the world that speak fluent “Niman,” and understand what it means to say that there have been three changes on one gene segment near the receptor binding domain of H5N1 in five different isolates found throughout 2006. (My translation of this news is that there have been some important changes in the area of transmisibility found in the H5N1 gene and this is a bad thing because the fatality rate for this virus is still very high and because some of those samples were collected in a province adjoining Hong Kong). I’m pretty sure, though, that most gold traders don’t speak “Niman.”

ANON-YYZ – at 16:16

ANON-YYZ – at 19:47

Choosing to announce this outside of the U.S. is likely a carefully thought out decision. When the same thing is announced here, the impact won’t be as big, coz it’s half-old news.

ANON-YYZ – at 20:09

It just occurred to me that this announcement was dated November 3rd, on the eve of a U.S. election, news of which will crowd out such an announcement in a foreign country. so it didn’t become headline news on CNN. Speculation, of course.


It’s carefully orchestrated.

So I agree it is significant in the sense that there is a recognition of the need to START warning the public gradually, in a manner that would not cause panic or market disruption. Doesn’t mean there is any ‘inside news’ that panflu is imminent.

enza – at 16:51

Maybe it would be too overwhelming to suggest 3 months to start (stateside), so if you start with 2 wks. then then wait awhile. After a few months, move the recc up to 3 wks. and so on, until we ‘get there’. I would not be surprised to see the pandemicfludotgov site increase the time to 3 wks soon.

diana – at 16:53

My take on this is simply that Americans in Hong Kong should prepare, or if they can’t, they are being given adequate time to wrap up their affairs, and leave before any kind of panic sets in. Better a bit too early than too late.

Clawdia – at 16:56

Well, at least I can be glad I’m not the only one who is weary of the patronizing “don’t panic” routine. (Thanks, guys)

Walrus – at 17:23

With respect, the State Department advisory is really saying two things.

1. If a pandemic starts in Hong Kong, there is no way we can even plan to get any of you 60,000 people out inside three months because the logistics of moving you will be insanely complicated.

2. Store three months food.

Walrus – at 17:26

With respect, the State Department advisory is really saying two things.

1. If a pandemic starts in Hong Kong, there is no way we can even plan to get any of you 60,000 people out inside three months because the logistics of moving you will be insanely complicated.

2. Buy and store three months food, because there is a good chance a pandemic is going to hit this flu season. (in other words our backsides are going to be kicked harder if we don’t tell you to prep, than if you kick us because there is no pandemic this year)

Pixie – at 17:43

Walrus - at 17:26: (in other words our backsides are going to be kicked harder if we don’t tell you to prep, than if you kick us because there is no pandemic this year)

Reading your words, I just got a mental flash of Geraldo, Shephard Smith, and Anderson Cooper doing Katrina-like reporting of a pandemic from the U.S. Consulate in Hong Kong. ;-)

Average Concerned Mom – at 18:45

FrenchieGirld posted this in the News Thread — it is a column by someone living in Hong Kong who got an email from the State Department regarding having 3 months of preps.

http://tinyurl.com/swy5e

I thought he sounded really whiny — he’s basically upset that stateside, Americans only have to prep for 2 weeks but people overseas are being asked to prep for 3 months — i.e. SOOOOO unfair?

Average Concerned Mom – at 18:48

Argh — I can never type correctly — of course I mean FrenchieGirl.

Bird Guano – at 18:53

Interesting tidbits in that article.

“Supplies would take up 30% of the floor space in a typical Hong Kong flat.”

And he assumes that he would be magically “rescued” by the US Government after 12 weeks ?

Quick, somebody get a clue-by-four.

Edna Mode – at 20:01

Bird Guano – at 18:53 Quick, somebody get a clue-by-four.

Good one, BG!

lohrewok – at 20:14

ACM- I’m thinking that this guy posts over at curevents. He was in the hong kong thread.

Surfer – at 20:37

Pixie at 13:34

I’m a gold accumulator. I trade, but only in order to accumulate. I own physical gold and silver, and many mining stocks and gold mutual funds. I also buy futures contracts. And options contracts. Gold has been “down” since its May high. Yes, it fell about 12 bucks today. However, three things to consider: (1)Since 2000, gold has by far out performed the stock market or real estate market in the U.S. It will continue to do so, Ibleive; (2) The markets are influenced by many variables. It is a worldwide market. Central bankers from all nations play a large role. In addition, someone in India or Saudi Arabia may not be particularly concerned with what the U.S. State Department advises Americans in Hong Kong to prepare for; and (3) The price of gold (measured in any currency) will skyrocket in a pandemic, Ibleive.

I consider the warning to the folks in Hong Kong as a GIGANTIC tsunami alert. That wave will hit the U.S. (and the rest of the world) faster than greased duck poop when this thing busts out. We’ll see. I’m ready.

09 November 2006

Prepping Gal – at 00:43

Maybe some can recall more details but IIRC when SARS happened and Toronto was dealing with the outbreak (it may have been the second outbreak) WHO put Toronto on its list of Warnings AND they stated that the warning would stay in place for 90 days. This annoucement in HK may be to inform individuals because in placing that warning (or increasing the WHO pandemic alert level) it is possible no one would get in or out of HK therefore they need to be prepared for 3 months. Heck we think we have problems with space storing preps I can’t imagine doing it in HK.

ANON-YYZ – at 00:50

Prepping Gal – at 00:43

I suspect it was that experience of economic impact of an WHO announcement that prompted Canada to host the 2005 Pandemic Conference in Ottawa, and to ‘teach’ other countries and pressure the WHO to proceed cautiously with the phase announcements.

Mary in Hawaii – at 01:47

Something very interesting has happened. On another thread Nov 6 there was this:

spam – at 16:25 “U.S. Consulate General for Hong Kong and Macau November 3, 2006 The U.S. Department of State recently sent a cable to all diplomatic and consular posts entitled “Pandemic Influenza: Preparing for Possible Shelter-In-Place”. The cable’s main intent was to provide guidance to all staff regarding “shelter-in-place”. That is, in the event of severe pandemic influenza with high morbidity, the public may be advised to self-quarantine. Therefore, current guidance notes that families should be prepared to “shelter-in-place” for up to twelve weeks, and maintain sufficient food and water supplies to accommodate that entire period. Just as in the United States, U.S. government employees and their families overseas have primary responsibility for maintaining adequate supplies of food to shelter-in-place. This also applies to private U.S. citizens. For the long term, families are advised to store foods that are non-perishable, do not require refrigeration, or preparation (including the use of water), or cooking. The cable also advises that families should store one gallon of water per person per day.”

here it is, not a rumor

http://hongkong.usconsulate.gov/ci_avian_2006110301.html

I went to that link, and it was clearly an advisory to stockpile 3 months of supplies. all of you in this thread keep referring to stockpiling 3 months of supplies. I copied that link and pasted it in an email to family members in order to convince them to prepare. But when I clicked back on that link today, first in my email, then back on the original thread, lo and behold the date on the article had changed to Nov 9, and the advice had changed from stockpiling 3 months of supplies to 2 weeks!!!! Go look. It also seems lower key to me, but I can’t remember exactly what the original said and unfortunately I didn’t make a copy.

so what do you all make of the change?

ANON-YYZ – at 01:54

Mary in Hawaii – at 01:47

When asked, they will say it was a mistake, now corrected. But some journalist may not accept that, and see it as a back pedaling, and make it a bigger story.

Jumping Jack Flash – at 02:00

I wonder who would be a good reporter to call attention to this

Leo7 – at 02:05

Anon 22:

I believe you mentioned you were in HK. Could you please tell me when the flu season occurs there? I thought HK was opposite in seasons from US or am I wrong? Once we know the flu season in HK, maybe the message will be more clear.

ANON-YYZ – at 02:18

Jumping Jack Flash – at 02:00

Stockpile 2 weeks: if you get panflu, stay home and don’t infect other people, but your family will still be in close contact with you.

Stockpile 3 months: stay home and don’t get infected during a wave (estimated duration by various experts).

What’s the definition of ‘Shelter-In-Place’? To die or to live? What is the State Department telling overseas Americans? To live or to die?

MSNBC, ABC and others have run pandemic stories.

Helen Branswell in Canada has written many stories.

Mary in Hawaii – at 02:21

anon-yyz at 1:54. The odd thing was to have the original link changed, so that it is impossible to go back and verify. If all they wanted was to change it and say they made a mistake, that would have been a new post, a new URL. But this one purposely supplants the earlier one, using the original URL. Isn’t that a little strange?

ANON-YYZ – at 02:25

Mary in Hawaii – at 02:21

Some one who received the first e-mail could write the Consulate and asked for clarification. See what they have to say. Some journalist could e-mail and ask for an explanation.

crfullmoon – at 02:32

c3jmp found it google cached and put the link in the New Rumors thread, if you want to go get the Nov 3rd version

anon_22 – at 02:44

eo7 – at 02:05 Anon 22:

I believe you mentioned you were in HK. Could you please tell me when the flu season occurs there? I thought HK was opposite in seasons from US or am I wrong? Once we know the flu season in HK, maybe the message will be more clear.

Just about now.

As a veteran HK-er, (if there is such a word), and investor, Pixie’s words are sort of on target. People there are very aware of the pandemic potential. They may have their heads in the sand right now, trust me, if there is any sign, these 6+M people won’t need anyone to explain what is a pandemic and how come you need to go and stock up on everything. Assuming insider information, you would see shares tumble first, probably. Gold price may not go up though, cos the local market is not big enough to affect global prices, I don’t think. The spot HK gold is just the price quoted in HK, but in reality trading goes on 24/7 round the world electronically.

Don’t know if you can tell mask shortages from a distance… cos that would be one of the first things people would rush to stockpile.

MaMaat 02:51

anon_22, what do you make of the difference between these 2 documents? They’ve changed the recommended time to stock up for…

twelve weeks

two weeks

anon_22 – at 02:56

MaMa,

both links said 2 weeks now.

I did see the 3 month document though.

Anybody want to go ask them?

anon_22 – at 03:00

There could be a no of explanations:

1) the original South China Morning Post story was a mistake (unlikely).

2) the original State Department letter was a mistake (in which case someone should ask them whether that was a mistake).

3) we are all suffering from mass hallucinations here (let’s all go see a psych??)

4) somebody decide to change it and pretended nothing happened (why? and if they’ve already sent out the letter, are they going to send a different one? How are they going to explain it?)

MaMaat 03:01

anon_22, ‘both links said 2 weeks now’

Not on my browser, but no matter.

I was just wondering what your opinion might be on why it might have been changed.

MaMaat 03:02

thanks

Madamspinner – at 03:04

‘’‘cottontop – at 08:10

 What would really make me push the panic button, is if the U.S. had told the Americans to get the hell out of the country!’‘’

In my opinion; what they are saying “between the lines” is that 1. we’re telling you to stockpile for 3 months. AND

 2. That TRAVEL inside HK and IN & OUT of the country may not be possible during a pandemic.

Now if THAT doesn’t translate into “Stock up or GET OUT while you can” , I don’t know what does !

 I don’t believe anyone here is panicing----we are all informed enough to have done our homework & prepping;.to leave that kind of panic to those poor souls who will not have stocks in their home. 
anon_22 – at 03:25

I think I know what this is.

The following sentence replaces the original sentence, The Department of Health and Human Services, via its pandemicflu.gov website, advises that families have on hand two weeks of emergency supplies (food, water, medicines) in the event of a pandemic influenza.

Original Therefore, current guidance notes that families should be prepared to “shelter-in-place” for up to twelve weeks, and maintain sufficient food and water supplies to accommodate that entire period.

At the end of both documents, you find this “To better help plan for “shelter-in-place”, all U.S. citizens are encouraged to refer to the http://www.pandemicflu.gov/ website

Somebody at the State Department jumped the gun, advised citizens to prep for 12 weeks, refered to HHS, only HHS hasn’t moved to 12 weeks as policy, at least not yet. Now they have to backtrack, cos State has to take Pandemic recommendations from HHS.

Ha!

anon_22 – at 03:28

very funny…

I’m sorry, I know somebody’s career prospects just took a dive, but this is rather hilarious. I would so love to read the next letter that they send out to US citizens in HK saying, “oops, sorry, its, er.. 2 weeks, not twelve”

Typo, maybe?

anon_22 – at 03:46

Only HHS may be moving to 12 weeks in, I don’t know, 12 weeks? (Disclaimer: this is pure conjecture, and a little tongue-in-cheek, so take it for what its worth).

In which case the poor folks have to send out a third letter that says “Er, excuse me, it’s, um… twelve, ahem, weeks, after all.”

Treyfish – at 04:33

M Chan changed it!HAHAHA.Imho.Too many people trying to split,because as you said A22, not enough preps on the island to get in the short amount of time.Would’nt also the rsidents see people stocking up and do the same?Not a typo imho.Sounds fishy.

anon_22 – at 08:00

Treyfish – at 04:33

M Chan changed it!HAHAHA.Imho.

I think that should go to the rumor thread! LOL I know that the US voted for her, at least on the last and deciding round, but that’s still too funny!

anon_22 – at 08:01

No, definitely not a typo. What I meant was would they try to pretend it was a typo?

LauraBat 08:23

A lot of the US mask supply comes from abroad, especially (what a surprise) China. For those of you who don’t have your supply yet, you may want to address that now vs later.

anon this time – at 08:50

The web page was spelled out as twelve. Definitely not a typo.

All the models support the fact that waves last approximately twelve weeks. Recommending people stockpile based on that fact is prudent. Anything less is shortsighted, ignorant, decieving, two-faced…

Here is a note for The Standard newspaper in Hong Kong about the original e-mail. http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?pp_cat=15&art_id=31354&sid=10752514&con_type=1

The politics of survival

Thursday, November 09, 2006

“Pandemic Influenza: Preparing for Possible Shelter-In-Place” read the subject line. Another dratted spam message that got through my e-mail filter, I thought initially. After trying unsuccessfully for years to convince me that my wife felt dissatisfied with my performance or that nature had left me under-endowed in certain critical male capacities, they had given up targeting sexual insecurities and tried a new tactic.

Panic.

I started to delete, then noticed the “From” box said US consulate. That is a different disguise for a spammer. They usually say John or Dr Jones or your wife’s girlfriend. That one used to always get me.

But this was the first claiming to be from a diplomatic arm of government. Spammers and phishers have tried every disguise - banks, eBay, even the Internal Revenue Service - but never the State Department.

No one would ever mistake a message from such a source as requiring immediate attention. Not even the president takes the State Department seriously. The dumbest spammer should know better than to try the US consulate as a compelling con. So I opened it.

However, it was genuinely from the consulate, informing US citizens that the State Department had sent them a cable of the same title. They were passing on tips and directing us to the pandemicflu.gov Web site.

I got it as one of 60,000 Americans in Hong Kong on the consulate’s e-mail list.

Americans, unlike nearly every other nationality, are taxed on all income derived from all sources earned anywhere. The government aggressively puts resources into checking out whether citizens overseas comply with these rules. As a consequence, reporting requirements for Americans investing or banking abroad are such a pain to comply with that many overseas banks and investment firms refuse to take Americans as customers.

Getting official services as an American abroad is another matter altogether.

Regular consular e-mails usually makes me feel somewhat better about my annual check for taxes. But once I read it, I did not feel quite so warm and fuzzy.

The message basically implies that if a bird flu pandemic hits, you’re on your own.

One thing Americans abroad once considered comforting was having a big naval fleet in case of major emergencies. In the past, Americans in jeopardy through civil disturbances or war overseas have been rescued by air and naval forces.

Then earlier this year in the Lebanon-Israel conflict, Americans abroad found out how much they could count on their government in times of real need.

None at all.

While other nations promptly sent ships and aircraft to rescue their citizens, the US government sent notices that Americans had to find their own way out. Then, embarrassed by the contrast between that callous indifference versus quick action by European states, the United States offered assistance in leaving - with costs of the emergency travel to be billed to the refugee later.

That differs little from the fire department sending a bill for rescue services to a family that lost everything it owned in a fire.

Stung by criticism, the Bush regime finally relented on charging its taxpaying citizens for the protection it owes them and finally, after much delay, sent them.

But the administration that revealed depths of indifference for its citizens even at home with Hurricane Katrina is up to its old tricks. If you live abroad when a pandemic flu hits, prepare to survive on your own for up to 12 weeks, said the e-mail. In contrast, the pandemicflu.gov Web site tells stateside Americans to prepare to shelter-in- place for up to two weeks.

That is a 10-week difference before help arrives if you are an American overseas.

I started calculating the space needed to store the 12 weeks of water, food, toilet paper, batteries, cooking fuel and so on the e-mail said my wife and I should set aside. At eight liters of water a day, that alone amounts to more than 30 of the big Watsons Water bottles. All up, 12 weeks of supplies take up around 40 cubic meters.

That is a third of a normal-sized Hong Kong flat.

You’re going to need a bigger place, according to this official US government notice.

However, since the former Republican-dominated Congress drastically cut the tax break for overseas housing costs, that means you will have to pay for this out of your tax-reduced paycheck.

You survive, maybe, if you can afford it.

The anti-evolution Republicans consign Americans abroad to a Darwinian struggle for survival if a flu pandemic hits. If you live here and voted Republican in this week’s election, those are the real values you voted for.

Hope the Democrats do better.

crfullmoon – at 09:12

author; help is not going to arrive after two weeks here, either -need to write a follow up piece; we’ve been told we’re on our own about 13 months ago…

Feds can’t help, states can’t help; mutual aid will be impossible, municipal governments are afraid to tell the public we’re in a pandemic alert period, so they’re not making community and household preparations

crfullmoon – at 09:17

Dec 2005 state flu summit, MN HHS Sec. Leavitt:

“Any state, any community, or for that matter any citizen

that failed to prepare - assuming that the federal government could take care of them during a pandemic - would be tragically wrong”

crfullmoon – at 09:20

(the pandemicflu.gov site went up Oct. 2005, and fleshed out slowly after that with all those checklists, but that was when we got notified to plan without relying on federal help)

Sniffles – at 09:44

When the information about the Hong Kong 12 week recommendation first came out, someone (I am not sure if it was from here or another flu site) called HHS and asked why their website was recommending 2 weeks while US citizens in Hong Kong were being told to stock food and water for 3 months. The person answering the phone talked with supervisors twice - they evidently did not know about the information out of Hong Kong. Then the information gets magically modified in Hong Kong. I do not think it takes a lot of imagination to figure out what happened and why. TPTB at HHS have taken control in order to have a similar message. The bad thing is that the information being given by HHS may not be very good.

anon_22 – at 09:46

Sniffles – at 09:44

Thank you. That pretty much verifies it as far as I’m concerned.

Suzi – at 09:51

I hope somebody saved the original one somewhere … not that it really matters in the grand scheme, I suppose. I mean WE all know what it said. We’re not all crazy, ha. I don’t think it’s a typo. Some “official” with the State Dept. got this 12-week info. from “somewhere” and jumped the gun without checking the government guidelines on the web, IMO

Makes me have flashbooks to the book “1984,” where books were destroyed by the government. If it’s not in print, it didn’t happen. (At least that’s the way I remember it, could’ve been some other book)

HennyPennyat 10:07

Well, I know someone that printed out the first message and gave a copy to all their co-workers. It seems to have inspired several to get busy. Now everyone wonders how to store all that water (they are all city dwellers).

MaMaat 10:16

Suzi, the cached page can be accessed using the link in my post at 2:51 or using the link in c3jmp’s post(the one who found it) on the current rumors thread.

anon_22 – at 10:18

Suzi – at 09:51

I hope somebody saved the original one somewhere

I did. :-) Never know whether it might be useful.

anon_22 – at 10:25

HennyPenny – at 10:07 Well, I know someone that printed out the first message and gave a copy to all their co-workers. It seems to have inspired several to get busy. Now everyone wonders how to store all that water (they are all city dwellers).

They don’t need to store all that water right away. But they will need to buy containers, and water purification chemicals etc. One useful thing to get is the collapsible water containers which you can fill up when TSHTF. Add bleach and you’re all set. Someone did say once, thought, not to put these on concrete as the chemicals in concrete will leach into the water, and that goes for regular water jugs too.

Are you living in HK? Or tell your friends. Go to these little hardware stores in Happy Valley or Wanchai for huge stackable laundry buckets with lids. You can stack a whole lot in a bathroom without taking up a lot of space. Remember though to get rubber hose, siphon, ladle, etc as well.

from a local girl. :-)

TreasureIslandGalat 10:37

Sniffles,

It was I who called the CDC to ask why there was different info given to teh conuslates than what was on the pandemic.org website. I don’t know if the representative I spoke with talked to their Supervisor twice, but certainly they spoke to someone else at least once. The first time I was put on hold, they may have simply been accessing teh pandemic.gov site themselves to see what was being said. The second time I was put on hold, they were gone a much longer amount of time and then came back with a very dictated response as I had posted before.

I want to set the record straight however, it was not HHS that I phoned. It was CDC’s general information line that was published at the pandemic.gov website that I contacted.

Still very interesting that info was changed though. (I’m just finding this out now)

It may have been because all the flu forums immediately “jumped on it” and drew attention to someone’s more educated suggestion. The problem is, they TPTB want to present a unified, consistent message and that was/would cause confusion/conflict as a “mixed message”. (as it obviously did here)

anon_22 – at 10:40

CDC is part of HHS, right?

Argyll – at 10:41

I have a copy of the original advisory as I sent it to my sister who is travelling to Hong Kong. (She left yesterday for 5 days). I bet consistency across the board is what they’re striving for.

Argyll.

OKbirdwatcherat 10:45

crfullmoon at 09:17 -

Doesn’t get any clearer than that.

Argyll – at 10:56

Found this link at CIDRAP dated 11.7.06 It addresses this advisory. Please feel free to delete this link, if it does not follow proper protocol.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/panflu/news/nov706quarantine.html

Argyll.

TreasureIslandGalat 11:04

well, I printed ou tthe original message and teh news releases about it. I have them in hard copy and have showed them to numerous people. I am much relieved at someone else’s “slip up”. This was the one thing that FINALLY woke up my closest friends and family members to truly grasp the concept that the Bird Flu might be something real and not just a Y2Kish scare. Everyone that has seen this has had raised eyebrows and legitimate concern. They have all asked, ok, now I see…what should I do now?

Thank you all for educating me here so that I have been able to provide a good response.

ANON-YYZ – at 11:19

There was no stock market melt down or people panicking on the street. It proves one thing, there is no worry about telling people to prep for 3 months. Most will just yawn and prep for two weeks. If you say two weeks, most will do nothing. “Oh, I have enough in my pantry.”

However, if TPTB asks people to prepare for 3 months after a formal declaration of phase 4 by the WHO, we may not have the same outcome. So I think CDC/HHS should announce 3 months shortly, but must be before phase 4 announcement by the WHO.

Pixie – at 12:37

There’s a problem in that they have apparently already sent out a cable to all the U.S. embasies and consulates advising 12 weeks of preparation. Standard verbiage - to the public - on consular sites always says “two weeks.”

Hong Kong read that cable, and noticed that it specifically said the advisory was for U.S. citizens, not just for government employees. Their take on it was that they had been told to advise “all” American citizens under their jurisdiction.

All I know is that I’d like to know who put that advisory out, and I want to run them for Pres. in 2008. I’d like to see them appointed to the position of Pandemic Czar in the meantime. (I can dream, can’t I?)

Sniffles – at 12:51

anon_22 – at 10:40 CDC is part of HHS, right?

anon_22 - you are correct. CDC is a department under HHS.

Pixie – at 17:51

I almost hesitate to post this here. I subscribed to the HK warden email alert system right after the consular advisory was noticed here. I received a confirmation, and a welcome email. I have not received any follow-up email since that time. Has anyone else who may have subscribed?

NawtyBitsat 18:05

So, Pixie, what they are saying in public might be different than what they are saying in private now? Perhaps they thought by sucking back the public memo, that we would be placated, and it would go away….

NawtyBitsat 18:22

Ooops…the 2week memo on the consulate webpage has been replaced with a generic panflu page listing links to all the usual suspects…..

Nothing to see here…..Move along.

Sniffles – at 18:24

NawtyBits – at 18:05

The more I think about this, the more I realize that there are several players that are affecting what is said. In all reality, CDC would not be telling another agency (the US State Dept) what to do. It may not even be HHS. We must remember that for pandemic planning and coordination, it is the Dept of Homeland Security, not HHS that will be doing all of the coordination. The only things that HHS will be doing is coordinating vaccine distribution and making treatment recommendations and coordinating other medically related information. Homeland Security is doing everything else. IMHO, it probably was Homeland Security that requested the State Dept to change their website information. Just a guess. Hong Kong residents may not be getting changes yet because they are trying to figure out what they are going to do/say. If their plan is to gradually change the message over time, it might not be wise to send out a changed e-mail/fax. Instead, they would make the change on the State Dept website back to 2 weeks and then modify it when the US as a whole increases their food/water preparation recommendations to its citizens. Please keep in mind that this is only a guess on my part.

NawtyBitsat 18:31

Sniff…see me at 18:22….Methinks it’s more than that.

diana – at 18:32

From 12 weeks to 2 weeks to a generic panflu page…. OOOOOOpps., is an understatement. Perhaps it was written in advance to be issued for a future emergency, but someone slipped up and sent it out in error.

Suzi – at 18:45

Perhaps, but somehow I doubt it.

Just wondering. If you were caught in another country that was hit by a pandemic, I don’t know but I would think it would be impossible to get back in the U.S. I mean, wouldn’t we be restricting flights from that country?

Pixie – at 18:47

I take back what I said about Geraldo, Anderson Cooper & Shep Smith reporting from the U.S. consulate in HK potentially looking like their reporting during Katrina in New Orleans.

If the U.S. authorities pull back that email warning to U.S. HK expats (officially, by replacing it with a “no don’t worry message,” or the new “non-message,” and TSHTF, the U.S. Consulate in HK will not look like New Orleans during Katrina, it will look like Saigon on April 30, 1975. And those will be U.S. citizens outside the gates. And climbing over them.

In the end, honesty is always the best policy. For the record, you did the right thing, HK consular office, you did the right thing.

anon_22 – at 19:10

Now the whole page has been pulled from that site. Nada.

ANON-YYZ – at 19:14

So no journalist could write about the retraction. Private e-mails could still be sent to U.S. citizens there. Clever indeed.

anon_22 – at 19:17

ANON-YYZ – at 19:14 So no journalist could write about the retraction.

Not before I emailed the South China Morning Post though….

Anon_451 – at 19:19

NawtyBits – at 18:31 Of course it is. There is no AI in China or Hong Kong, just ask the Chinese government. Why should people prepare for something that does not exist????

HK Error Messages – at 19:20

If you search the site typing in “newsletter pandemic” it gives you a list of references. Two references regarding SIP flu dated 11–3−06 show up but links either take you elsewhere or come up with error messages.

JV – at 19:25

The original article is still quoted on “India eNews:” http://tinyurl.com/yavc9h

diana – at 19:27

Fascignating stuff.

ANON-YYZ – at 19:31

The genie’s out of the bottle. They can’t put it back. If some journalist pushes, they can only duck (pun intended). Who’s going to risk being quoted like Baghdad Bob on TV, and say you only need two weeks?

May be some one organizes the U.S. citizens in Hong Kong and stage a press conference to seek clarification. We are talking about life and death here.

Pixie – at 20:00

ANON-YYZ – at 19:31 Who’s going to risk being quoted like Baghdad Bob on TV, and say you only need two weeks?

That’s why they can’t officially retract what they said on Nov. 3rd. now.

I want to say a lot more, but I think that person who put out that advisory is a hero and I fear that anything I say about how bad things could get either without his advisory, or as a result of a retraction of that advisory, would just make things worse for that heroic person. That person was trying to prevent a bunch of Americans from carrying tragically sick (American, btw) kids to his consulate’s steps. Whatever happens, that person needs our support and needs to know that absolutely any one of us would love to see him in our own states, running pandemic preparations here, if our office in HK no longer needs his services. Hopefully one day this individual will get credit where credit is due, and we can all say thank you to someone who did what was right, which is all we really ask of our Federal employees.

Clawdia – at 20:01

This seems more peculiar by the hour - and grows no less concerning.

Okieman – at 20:02

My guess? The Chinese government squawked at being used as a guinea pig for the announcement of a 12 week SIP warning. See my Nov 7 post at 14:37.

anonymous – at 20:06

Okieman - at 20:02

I think you are very possibly right, and that the disappearance could have come from China as well as H&HS. Leavitt, from my understanding, would like to see everyone urged to have enough supplies on hand to SIP for 12 weeks, so you can guess where my vote lands on that issue.

I also think that Treyfish is right, and the timing was not coincidental with the appintment of Dr. Chan as the new WHO chief. There was perhaps a certain window that needed to be taken advantage of while it was open.

Pixie – at 20:09

That was me, Pixie, at: anonymous – at 20:06 (must’uv dropped my cookies)

ANON-YYZ – at 20:10

Okieman – at 20:02

I doubt the State Department would change it because the Chinese objected. I think the scenario earlier is more credible: Some one here called the CDC, got put on hold, and subsequently the web page changed, and when talked about it more, the page just got pulled.

Expat pattern – at 20:12

Interesting article regarding Japanese plans for expats on news thread. AI also topic at high level meeting Bush attending in Hanoi with other world leaders next week.

ANON-YYZ – at 20:18

Okieman – at 20:02

The timing of the first announcement got more to do with the U.S. mid-term elections, so no one’s really watching from the U.S. and it won’t make the headline news on CNN.

I would like CNN Asia to go after this story. Dreaming, maybe.

Homesteader – at 20:43

Found an article with a link that goes to the original article:

link

The US government recently forwarded a cable to consulates overseas advising employees to be prepared for a possible Avian flu pandemic and that they might have to shelter-in-place for up to 12 weeks, which includes having adequate water, food and medical supplies stored.

“The US State Department is advising government employees overseas to stockpile enough food and water to last up to 12 weeks in preparation for the threat of a severe influenza pandemic. “..more there

Here is a state department article about the cable sent, the one referenced in the first linked article.(google cache, I couldn’t get a regular link to work correctly, I could get there once, but a second time gave an error page that pointed back to here..weirdness…the goog cache works fine)

NWF gal – at 21:00

As soon as I heard about this earlier in the week, I saved the actual US Consulate General document as an image (.mdi) and can email it to anyone who is interested.

ANON-YYZ – at 21:11

NWF gal – at 21:00

Can you please email to one of the mods so they can post it as image here?

NWF gal – at 21:29

ANON-YYZ at 21:11 - OK. I just emailed it to a mod.

Theresa42 – at 21:55

Did anybody save the second advisory — the one from Nov 9th that recommended prepping for just two weeks? ‘Cause, as anon_22 points out, the whole page is gone now….

Theresa42 – at 22:01

Ah. There’s actually some screencaps here of both advisories (hat-tip Ryan, via Potemkin!):

http://ryanschultz.typepad.com/blog/2006/11/us_consulate_in.html

anon_22 – at 22:04

It’s here

Pixie – at 22:15

Do you have the intermediate advisory from Nov. 7th in screencap? (The one with the 2 week SIP advisory)?

Theresa42 – at 22:27

Hey, Pixie. I don’t think there was one from the 7th — was there? I thought there was one from Nov 3 which said 12 weeks, and then one from Nov 9 which said 2 weeks. Now they’re both gone, of course.

DemFromCTat 22:34

link to image from the google cache.

Surfer – at 23:13

dem, a22

Well done. Any idea how to xplode the docs to a readable size? On my cumputers, the link at first appears normal, then it instantly shrinks to unreadable. ??? Dunno how to get it into to a printable and email format for forwarding. Ideas?

Surfer – at 23:16

dem, a22

Well done. Any idea how to xplode the docs to a readable size? On my 3 cumputers, the link at first appears normal, then it instantly shrinks to unreadable. ??? Dunno how to get it into to a printable and email format for forwarding. Ideas?

anon_22 – at 23:56

Surfer – at 23:16

You can save it as an image file first, then open and enlarge it.

10 November 2006

RobT20at 00:00

Surfer

The document is an image.

On Windows, move the cursor over the image, in the lower right hand corner of the image, a resizing icon will appear, click it to expand the image to full size.

Irene – at 00:00

I’m using IE7. If I place my mouse curser over the shrunken document, the curser changes to a magnifying glass with a plus sign. I then just left click with my mouse, and the document becomes large enough to read.

Pixie – at 00:17

Theresa42 - at 22:27

Theresa, sorry, that was a typo on my part! - the 7 I meant to be a 9. I was repeating your quesion as I have not seen a screencap version of the second consular advisory (the one suggesting 2 weeks of preparations). It must be in chache somewhere, though. Or, those of us who printed it off could try to scan it and upload it. It would be easier to get a copy of it via cache, although I have not seen one yet. Anybody?

Oremus – at 00:20

Here is one more image, clearer I think, with the google cache info at the top also.

Statement from the Hong Kong & Macau consulate

Pixie – at 00:24

Oremus - Can you also locate the 2nd advisory from Nov. 9th - the one stating 2 weeks?

Bird Guano – at 00:47

All I can say is very, very interesting.

We have a first-hand look at the future of information management and pandemic flu.

Watch what they DO, not what they SAY.

The “Do” part of this is VERY telling.

Oremus – at 00:52

Pixie – at 00:24

This is the best I could find. Click the second picture.

U.S. Consulate in Hong Kong Backtracks on Bird Flu Warning

Theresa42 – at 00:57

Pixie – at 00:17 — Okay! Just thought I missed something there. ;) Thanks!

Unfortunately, I don’t think Google got a chance to cache the Nov 9th version — they removed it from their site so quickly.

There’s a couple of screencaps here of both versions — just the opening paragraphs, though (i.e. where the changes to the text were made) >>

http://ryanschultz.typepad.com/blog/2006/11/us_consulate_in.html

Lavendergrl – at 01:22

For those who don’t know, stuff only gets cached when the spider comes by. Page 1 might get spidered on the 3rd, page 2 on the 9th, page 3 on the 15th, etc., so a cache of that would have been a fluke.

People were saving the “12 week” cached version so fast that their computers got whiplash.

MaMaat 01:29

Pixie, I have a copy of both the google-cached twelve week and the two week version that I copied and e-mailed to myself. If anyone wants it I would be happy to e-mail it along.

Oremus – at 01:37

MaMa – at 01:29

Oremus_fluwiki@yahoo.com

Oremus – at 01:40

correction

fluwiki_oremus@yahoo.com

Haste makes waste but can take inches off your waste.

MaMaat 01:47

Oremus, done.

lugon – at 04:06

“twelve”, not 12. Not a typo.

A teachable moment?

crfullmoon – at 06:48

I’d like to offer this (though… it might be more use as a rolled-up newspaper)

National Association of County and City Health Officials pdf Local Health Department Guide to Pandemic Influenza Planning

(Planning assumptions p14, for one thing…p 28 key actions by phase, also. Maybe there are different ways this document can get seen by communities and individuals? )

All the best to whoever put that twelve-week advisory out. They could take over managing preparedness and risk communication my region and we here’d be better off…

Pixie – at 06:57

MaMa - at 1:09: Thanks I’d love a copy. Got the hard copy printed off but do not have it in the ‘puter. Boy they were quick. pixietheflutracker at yahoo dot com

Okieman – at 07:57

More speculation on my part:

MaMa posted this article on the news thread (the link can be found there), and I find it interesting how the timing corresponds with the SIP warning retraction in Hong Kong. I can see it now, “Give us the samples or next time we tell them to shelter in place for 20 Weeks. The chinese had to have seen that SIP warning as eventually having a ripple effect in Hong Kong and maybe the rest of the country. If there is a government that want’s to keep it’s people calm and orderly it is the Chinese.

China shares bird flu samples, denies new strain report

BEIJING (Reuters) - “China agreed on Friday to share long-sought bird flu virus samples with international health authorities, after rejecting scientists’ findings that a new, vaccine-resistant strain was circulating in the country.

<snip>

Northstar – at 08:11

Okieman: my speculation is that it’s just a little “gratuity” for Margaret Chan’s selection. And sure, they can agree to share, but of course they can’t share anything nonexistant, can they?

Homesteader – at 08:40

Link to CIDRAP referencing the 12 week warning:

link

Federal workers abroad urged to store food, water Nov 7, 2006 (CIDRAP News) – The US State Department is advising government employees overseas to stockpile enough food and water to last up to 12 weeks in preparation for the threat of a severe influenza pandemic.

A Nov 3 statement posted on the Web site of the US Consulate General in Hong Kong and Macau said the State Department recently sent guidance on “shelter-in-place” or “self-quarantine” to all diplomatic and consular posts.

The statement said that overseas employees, like their stateside counterparts and private citizens, should maintain supplies of food and water for a possible pandemic. The advisory urges families to store nonperishable foods that don’t require refrigeration, preparation, or cooking. Also, families are advised to store 1 gallon of water per person per day.

The Hong Kong consulate also advises US citizens in Hong Kong and other countries to prepare for water supply disruptions if infrastructure breakdowns occur during an influenza pandemic.

Suggested water purification techniques include boiling for at least 10 minutes and adding specified amounts of regular Clorox bleach.

The recommendation that US citizens overseas stockpile 12 weeks’ worth of food and water differs from the current federal recommendation for general pandemic preparedness. The government, on its pandemic planning Web site, recommends that US residents stockpile 2 weeks’ worth of food and water.

See also:

Nov 3 statement from US Hong Kong Consulate: “Pandemic influenza—preparing for possible shelter-in-place” link

Homesteader – at 08:41

Link to CIDRAP referencing the 12 week warning:

link

Federal workers abroad urged to store food, water Nov 7, 2006 (CIDRAP News) – The US State Department is advising government employees overseas to stockpile enough food and water to last up to 12 weeks in preparation for the threat of a severe influenza pandemic.

A Nov 3 statement posted on the Web site of the US Consulate General in Hong Kong and Macau said the State Department recently sent guidance on “shelter-in-place” or “self-quarantine” to all diplomatic and consular posts.

The statement said that overseas employees, like their stateside counterparts and private citizens, should maintain supplies of food and water for a possible pandemic. The advisory urges families to store nonperishable foods that don’t require refrigeration, preparation, or cooking. Also, families are advised to store 1 gallon of water per person per day.

The Hong Kong consulate also advises US citizens in Hong Kong and other countries to prepare for water supply disruptions if infrastructure breakdowns occur during an influenza pandemic.

Suggested water purification techniques include boiling for at least 10 minutes and adding specified amounts of regular Clorox bleach.

The recommendation that US citizens overseas stockpile 12 weeks’ worth of food and water differs from the current federal recommendation for general pandemic preparedness. The government, on its pandemic planning Web site, recommends that US residents stockpile 2 weeks’ worth of food and water.

See also:

Nov 3 statement from US Hong Kong Consulate: “Pandemic influenza—preparing for possible shelter-in-place” http://hongkong.usconsulate.gov/ci_avian_2006110301.html

Ruth – at 08:53

I wonder if and when it will suddenly disappear from CIDRAP’s website.

Homesteader – at 08:55

What are people’s thoughts on the “quarantine” part of the link? Does it have any importance in the how CIDRAP is viewing the information?

Bird Guano – at 10:42

Since CIDRAP receives government money, I’m just taking bets on how fast it disappears from their site.

ANON-YYZ – at 10:56

Okieman – at 07:57

Northstar – at 08:11

That deal to share samples was old news. May be a month or two. It was mentioned now to counter the ‘Fujian strain’ paper by Webster et al. We will find out soon enough. I posted some comments on the news thread before reading your posts.

The US Consulate and the State department do not work for the Chinese government. I can’t see any linkage between retracting the SIP for 12 weeks and the releasing of samples. I can’t see how Chan can influence the State department in such a short time and ‘make’ them retract the ‘SIP for 12 weeks’ message.

Too much tin foil here. Need to borrow your metal detector.

Dennis in Colorado – at 11:30

I also saved the CIDRAP article as a MS Word document, in case it does change later on.

North East of Rising Sun – at 12:21

The original page may be gone, but this opinion piece by Michael DeGolyer in The Standard is still out there: http://tinyurl.com/swy5e

North East of Rising Sun – at 12:29

Here is an interesting link to MMRS (Metropolitan Medical Response System) which seems to be an arm of Homeland Security. Their article mentions the 12 week stockpile but the link at the bottom of the page (read the article) links to the CIDRAP page…. http://tinyurl.com/y45r29

ANON-YYZ – at 12:33

North East of Rising Sun – at 12:29

Thank you. Better save the html before it’s gone.

Sniffles – at 12:37

North East of Rising Sun – at 12:21 The link for the article in the Standard doesn’t seem to work for me.

Sniffles – at 12:48

North East of Rising Sun – at 12:29 That is an interesting way to handle the situation. Similar things used to be done when I worked for the state. If important research results/information could not be put out on the state website due to political or other issues not related to the credibility/validity of the information, it would be provided to a non-state entity who would then put it on their site. We would be allowed to post the link to the information via the non-state website because it was not on the state website.

North East of Rising Sun – at 13:00

The page takes a long time to load, but it is still there. You can try going through the homepage — http://www.thestandard.com.hk/ and then searching for the author or opinion pieces. If you can’t get to it let me know and I will e-mail the text to you.

diana – at 13:35

Our reading tea leaves won’t change anything. Just have to wait and see. Can’t see getting spastic or changing my hit and miss prepping by what is 50 to 75% off. Does anyone know what the American colony in Hong Kong is actually doing, or what their reaction to this is?

MaMaat 15:26

Pixie at 6:57, done.

LauraBat 16:57

And do they think those 60K in Hong Kong that got the email won’t pass it on to friends in family in other parts of the world? While I applaud whoever gave to intial notice, I feel very sorry for him/her/them now. Likely they are in deep trouble for telling the truth.

Patch – at 17:06

LauraB - at 16:57

…..I feel very sorry for him/her/them now. Likely they are in deep trouble for telling the truth.

As always, I look at both sides. PERHAPS he/she/they are in deep trouble for overstating the current risk?

LauraBat 17:22

Patch - having lived abroad myself, I would not want to be in another country in such a situation, PF or other disaster, large city or smaller. Citizens living abroad could be in even dire straights than those of us living at home. Potato, potato, tomato, tomato, let’s call the whole thing off :)

Sniffles – at 17:41

Patch – at 17:06 As always, I look at both sides. PERHAPS he/she/they are in deep trouble for overstating the current risk?

From what I understand, this person received information from the US State Dept and then forwarded that information to the US citizens living in Hong Kong. Maybe he/she was only supposed to give this information to staff only or to keep it internal and not release the information. Your guess is as good as mine, but this person did not make up the information out of the blue.

tjclaw1 – at 20:14

My CIDRAP e-mail tonight contained the following:

“Please note that the story “Federal workers abroad urged to store food, water” published Nov 7, was updated today. “

The article has the following editor’s note:

“Editor’s note: Shortly after publication of this story, the US Consulate in Hong Kong first changed and later removed its Web page advising employees to stockpile a 12-week supply of food and water. More information on the changes, with commentary, is available on the Greenhammer (Neighborhood Disaster Response) site. “ here’s the link: http://tinyurl.com/u5v2c

Article and commentary that CIDRAP links to: http://tinyurl.com/yd768d

Interesting…..

Sniffles – at 21:13

Comments from EffectMeasure on the situation:

Bloggers catch US State Dept. on bird flu preps Category: Bird flu • Pandemic preparedness Posted on: November 10, 2006 7:55 AM, by revere

Someone should tell the US government: “Big Blogger is Watching You.” Both CIDRAP and crof’s blog H5N1 picked up a story that the US State Department was advising its diplomatic and consular personnel in in Hong Kong and Macao to prepare for a possible “shelter-in-place” event by laying in a stockpile of food and water to last twelve weeks if there were a complete infrastructure breakdown in an influenza pandemic. CIDRAP noted this differs from advice on the US government pandemic flu site which suggests only a two week buffer.

<snip>

http://tinyurl.com/y4var7

anon_22 – at 21:38

This thread is getting long. Let’s move to part 2

anon_22 – at 21:39

This thread is getting long. Let’s move to part 2

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Emergen-C Question

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Emergen-C Question

17 October 2006

longhorn – at 15:41

Do any of you know where I could buy Emergen-C in bulk? Buying it from walmart by the 36 count box is getting quite expensive. I`m pretty sure that I remember someone saying that you could buy it in bulk on the internet somewhere.

Thank you!

Petticoat Junction – at 15:58

I’d be interested in bulk info, too.

I did stumble across quite the Emergen-C end cap today, though - varieties I’d never seen, stacked high on a display that was taller than I am. The usual raspberry, orange, etc but also strawberry, cranberry, tangerine, heart-health versions, light versions…even a coffee one! Still $7.99 for a box of 36, though. They also individual packets of each flavor for 25 cents so I picked up a few to taste-test. ;)

Fiddlerdave – at 16:49

Boy, I would love to find it in bulk too. I work odd hours, travel, and of any supplement I take, its the one I truly miss if I don’t take it (goal - 2 packs a day of the MSM version powder plus two time release tablets Theragram III). I would imagine it is similar to ester C in bio-availability, but I loved the old man who started Alacer - if I could have his energy at 87 like him, I’d be in heaven. He died at 90, at 87 he acted 50. I know I’m a sucker.

Many years ago, they were struggling with the packaging because it would lump and get solid in storage or heat, I think it would be hard to package a bottle of the powder. They don’t list any other way than the packets that they supply. (www.alacer.com)

Took a look around, nothing dramatic.

Trader Joe’s (no online buying from them) has for $8.49 (including the MSM version, which others charge a little more for). Same as Walmart.

I do take the Super-gram III with MSM time release tablets as well, similar to but without the electrolytes that the Emergen-C has. I think the electrolytes are a big part of the packets’ benefits to me, but his mineral version idea with the C does make some sense. I imagine they would store well and are marked with a 1 1/2 year shelf life (at least).

Petticoat Junction – at 18:43

My mother just told me that she was in a Sam’s Club (in Colorado) and saw a set of 2 Emergen-C boxes for $13-something. Saves a little bit, anyway….

EnoughAlreadyat 21:13

What is it?

Carol – at 21:28

Emergen-C is 1,000mg of vitamin C powder plus minerals including B vitamins. They are individual packets that you mix with water..I like the fizzy raspberry flavor.

They stimulate my appetite.

Fiddlerdave – at 22:21

The claims from Alacer (which I think have some merit but I am not an expert!) is that they present the Vitamin C in a mineral acorbate form, which is much more similar and more absorbable to what the body can use compred to regular C presented in an ascorbic acid (according to Alacer). It seems like Alacer C would be more similar to Ester C (it predated Ester C)in bioavailability. I take lots and have no digestive upset or the other side effects of higher C doses. The Emergen-c powder has additional electrolytes and B vitamins (somewhat like what Gatorade gives you) that I find refreshing as well. The powder form does just seem to do alot for me when traveling, plane trips etc. when dehydration is an issue as well.

mojo – at 22:31

http://survivalacres.com/cgi-bin/quikstore.cgi?search=yes&product=SA1316&keywords=emergen&detail=yes

Petticoat Junction – at 22:35

Enough Already - my mother spent several months in a hotel room in Kazakhstan a few years ago, helping a friend who was adopting. My father would get desperate little emails from her, sent from the wireless cafe…”Send more Emergen-C!!” lol. She swears by it as an energy boost and gets the versions with extra Vit C in the winter or when she feels like she’s fighting something off.

She brought a box with her when she came out last fall to help me with surgery for possible cancer (a newborn and three other children in the house) and gave me the leftovers. I finally tried it several months ago and now I’m kind of hooked…always seem to have one about 3 or 4 pm. I have a whole Ziploc full in my BOB.

FWIW, I heard an interview recently with one of the Riverdance dancers and caught with interest a passing comment she made about the dancers meeting back stage between acts to down Emergen-C. I figure if it has enough ‘zing’ to give them a boost, it might almost have enough to help me through a day. ;o)

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 22:38

Description: Naturally effervescent, lemon-lime flavored vitamin-C supplement drink mix.

Ingredients: Sweetened with fructose. All nutrients in a base of citric tartaric, aspartic and malic (apple) acids plus whey factors. Flavored with natural products including concentrates of natural lime and lemon flavors, plus potassium phosphate to buffer acidity.

  Nutritional Facts 

Serving Size (1 Container) Servings Per Container 72 Amount Per Serving Calories 14 Total Fat 0g Sodium 60mg Carbohydrates 3g Protein 0g Weight (oz) 15 Fiber 0g

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 22:46

That #10 can has 72 servings = .66 cents per serv

The $8 bottle of 36 is .22 cents per serv

longhorn – at 23:00

Thanks Mojo- at 22:31

That is exactly what I was looking for.

I`m-working–on-it at 22:46

I was wondering about the amount in the can, why would you need a # 10 can for only 15oz? Did I read that right? There must be 72 of the little packages in the can???? I guess I am going to call them tomorrow to get more info.

Thanks!

18 October 2006

Fiddlerdave – at 03:43

Let us know, LH! I would love bulk, but if that just has 72 packages in a can, that indeed as IWOI says, it is very expensive. Just paying for a vacuum can for protection and shelf life, maybe?

Doug Baker – at 03:52

In my area there are sunflower markets. www.sfmarkets.com There weekly ads have select flavors 36 count buy one get one free, m.s.r.p 9.99 so $10.00 for 72.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 07:22

I don’t think there are any packets inside the can, I think it’s loose powder, which means you’re likely to use more than the actual serving size when you scoop it out. They’ll probably tell you that the extra space in the can has to do with the product ‘settling’, since things like powders or cereals, etc. have that tendency — remember how a cereal box only seems half full by the time you open it?

DB may have found the best priceing at the sunflower markets!

19 October 2006

longhorn – at 13:04

Sorry that it has taken so long to get back to this thread. I called the Co. and I still have not heard back from them. The man that I spoke to was as confused as I am as to why you would need a #10 can for 15oz of product.

I believe Doug Baker- at 03:52 found the best price I have seen. Thank you for the link.

jt – at 14:53

Recent study out this week in newspaper said that taking 1,000 mg of vitamin C was not beneficial, but that 500mg was OK …FYI.

24 October 2006

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 21:39

I’ve seen #10 cans used for anywhere from 8oz to 32oz of ingredients — I think it’s not so much that it needs a #10 to hold bulky mix, but it is easier to ship a #10 can — I think it’s all based on shipping convenience, not bulk.

31 October 2006

anonymous – at 16:29

Walgreens has their Emergen-C on sale this week: buy one at $10.99, get one free. The one here had honey-citrus, orange, raspberry, cranberry, and tangerine. And you can mix & match flavors. Good through Sat, Nov 4th.

Petticoat Junction – at 16:30

Oops, sorry, that was me.

Pseudorandom – at 18:15

Target has a similar deal going: $5.49 per box of 36, sale on through the 4th. I haven’t checked out their flavors yet.

10 November 2006

Petticoat Junction – at 20:39

For those who would like to try Emergenc-C, I just found an offer for a free sample from WalMart: Emergen-C sample

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Rumor of Bird Flu in NC

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Rumor of Bird Flu in NC

02 November 2006

Homesteader – at 18:47

My wife was in the local farm supply store earlier today. She casually asked them what they thought of the bird flu and go more than she bargained for. She was told that bird flu is already in NC and it has been kept quiet to avoid creating panic. All the chicken farms have been buttoned down. The Farm Store is no longer able to carry any live animals ie: chicks, goslings, poults etc. . .

No doubt it is the lo path variety, which of course is of no danger to humans. I’ll stop by the store tomorrow and find out what I can and follow-up here.

Homesteader – at 18:48

My wife was in the local farm supply store earlier today. She casually asked them what they thought of the bird flu and go more than she bargained for. She was told that bird flu is already in NC and it has been kept quiet to avoid creating panic. All the chicken farms have been buttoned down. The Farm Store is no longer able to carry any live animals ie: chicks, goslings, poults etc. . .

No doubt it is the lo path variety, which of course we all know is of no danger to humans. I’ll stop by the store tomorrow and find out what I can and follow-up here.

DennisCat 19:09

I hope this is not related in any way. But I will leave it to others to reach their own conclusions.

A possible outbreak of the flu forces Yancey County school officials in to cancel classes through early next week.

About 250 students have gone home sick with flu-like symptoms at two schools and several child-care centers this week. There will be no school Thursday, Friday and Monday. Tuesday is a teacher workday, so students will return to class next Wednesday, November 8th. The Yancey County Health Department is waiting for test results to come back to determine if it is the flu. If that happens, Yancey will be the first county in North Carolina to have confirmed flu cases this season.

(posted 10:00 pm 11/01/06)

http://tinyurl.com/y52v45

mcjohnston92 – at 19:15

I’ve been following this story today for a while. According to what I have read, as many as 85 kids were out as early as October 26th. According to AP, some samples have tested positive for a “B” variety flu on a rapid test, and final typing will take up to a week by state health officials. Let’s not panic. I have yet to hear of any hospitalizations or deaths. It is flu season after all. Also, I understand from my other reading that schools throughout the region will close schools sometimes when 10% of their students are out sick.

This bears watching, but doesn’t feel like “IT” to me.

DennisCat 19:15

Remember that H5N1 is type A. So this is good news

Follow up:

The victims tested positive for influenza B, the less serious of two types of the virus that commonly infect humans, the department said in a news release….

An outbreak of flu-like illness kept 250 of Yancey County’s 2,575 pupils out of class on Wednesday… We just need everyone to act responsibly,” Kinnane said. “Sporting events, recreational events — any high-gathering event — have been canceled or we’re recommending that they be canceled.” …

The findings at the North Carolina State Laboratory of Public Health must still be confirmed by further tests that could take up to a week, the state Department of Health and Human Services said….

http://tinyurl.com/y4ddb6

Siam – at 19:28

“We just need everyone to act responsibly,” she said. “Sporting events, recreational events — any high-gathering event — have been canceled or we’re recommending that they be canceled.”

I haven’t seen this before.

ReallyDisappointedat 19:28

Is there a more reliable place on the web for flu statistics by state rather than the one at weather.com? It still says October 21st on their site. It is two weeks later now.

ReallyDisappointedat 19:29

Siam, I have’t see that before either. Maybe they don’t know anything special but just understand that mixing seasonal flu with oh….say low path h5n1 could be an issue? Beats me.

Pseudorandom – at 19:33

I was in Wilkes County NC last weekend. Wilkes is a heavy Tyson chicken producer and is affectionately referred to by both current and former residents as the chickens**t capitol of the state. I heard nothing from my family that lives there, and they would be in a position to know and talk if anything strange were going on.

While there’s tremendous potential for infection there, just because of all of the chicken farming, I don’t think this is it. This time, it sounds like the germ factories are the schoolkids.

mcjohnston92 – at 19:36

ReallyDisappointed at 19:28

You have undoubtedly found a reference to the CDC’s weekly numbers released each week throughout the flu season.

You can find them directly at cdc.gov/flu and click on current week report.

ReallyDisappointedat 19:41

mcjohnston? Please don’t tell me that this is the fastest we can compile information on the flu by state.

mcjohnston92 – at 19:46

ReallyDisappointed

They usually post each Thursday evening or Friday for the week ending the previous Saturday. So they are 7 days behind when they post, and it isn’t updated for another week. One thing to keep in mind is that their numbers are highly suspect, as they only report the percentage of visits to a network of “sentinel” providers for febrile respiratory illness. They miss a lot of cases. It is, however, the closest to “hard” numbers we will likely get from a government agency. Oh, and they also rely on “self reporting” by states. There is plenty of opportunity to, shall we say, fudge the numbers.

cottontop – at 19:47

www.cdc.gove/flu/weekly/usmap.htm

I check this map weekly. I wouldn’t rely on it for total honesty as a pandemic indicator, or monitar. This site takes you right to the map.

ReallyDisappointedat 19:49

Okay, maybe I am missing something but if the current numbers are from cases reported the week ending 10/21/06 then where is the report for 10/28/06?

mcjohnston92 – at 19:53

ReallyDisappointed

W/E 10/28 should appear on their website sometime in the next 24 hours.

ReallyDisappointedat 19:57

Oh, oh. I get it now. I think. We will see the numbers of flu cases probably tomorrow reported between 10/21/06 and 10/27/06. That is unacceptably slow when we have a possible pandemic with maybe a short incubation period. If a lot of people came down with some serious flu on the 22nd, 23rd, and 24th then it won’t show up on the CDC website until 11/3/06? Bad, bad, bad.

ReallyDisappointedat 19:59

Can’t we get some sort of real time reporting like the USGS uses for earthquakes?

mcjohnston92 – at 20:03

I think the point might be that we shouldn’t actually depend on CDC for any “real” information, ultimately.

The best information will probably be on the fluwikie first, IMHO.

ReallyDisappointedat 20:05

I agree with you. You know what else just occurred to me that we need to change. Really, we must change. We shouldn’t hold elections in flu season.

03 November 2006

anonymous – at 05:02

I always check flustar. I don’t think there are actual numbers on there but you can see where flu appears and see how it spreads from “Low”, to “Moderate” , and finally to “High.” NC isn’t even on the radar yet on that map. So far it’s just FL and the Gulf coast.

DennisCat 09:34

cottontop – at 19:47 www.cdc.gove/flu/weekly/usmap.htm

that has an extra “e”. It should be

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/usmap.htm

cottontop – at 09:39

DennisC- thanks for the correction. Fingers sometimes have a mind of their own!

Kathy in FL – at 09:49

This isn’t a scientific observation of course, but I can tell you that I attend what is fondly, or infamously, called a “mega church” due to its size in proportion to our area.

At the church we have a very strict protocol for whether a child with symptoms of any illness are allowed into Sunday School and/or nursery. No rashes, fevers, runny noses (accept a little clear, as in the kind the kids get when they are teething), bronchial cough unless the child has asthma or similar condition, etc. Same sort of rules there should be in the public school system.

We also have a cleaning protocol that is really strict. All surfaces and toys are cleaned at the end of the day if a child(ren) has been in the room … usually even if the room goes unused for some reason it is included in the cleaning schedule.

Even with these strict measures we have been dealing with an unusually high number of student and teacher illnesses … and it then goes around in their families. We had a peak like this back at the end of VBS (vacation Bible school) and we are seeing a similar peak again. Its some kind of flu (aches and pains and fever) with some gastro-intestinal elements to it. Yuck … especially as our family became one of the statistics of it a couple of weeks ago.

Its all over in the schools and has started to hit the adult workforce as well as their kids bring it into the home.

anon99 – at 11:43

Kathy in FL:

I’m in CA, and have attended two large churches over a 20 year period. They both have a “custom” of having the entire congregation stand, shake hands, and greet each other during the service. I find this to be a very poor idea, as it does nothing but facilitate the transfer of whatever is going around at the time. BF threat or not, I don’t want someone else’s cold or “harmless” flu. I’m actually thinking of approaching the leadership to recommend they stop. If not, I probably will stop attending…

Homesteader – at 12:18

Kathy in FL 9:49

We also attend a large church in NC. Same thing there, although it also went through my office at the same time. I kept a running tally in my head and it was a surprise when I spoke to someone who had not had it. My whole family had it and that is 6 people. I too believe it was early season flu. Hope it conveys some immunity to bird flu! :)

Clawdia – at 12:56

Shaking hands is bad enough, but my daughter attends a church that still holds with the old tradition of the communal wine cup . . . the priest wipes off the edge of the cup after each person drinks. Like that’s going to do much good . . . makes the hair on the back of my neck stand up just to think about it. She’s an otherwise very intelligent young woman. This practice alone will make me jump to the conclusion that it is time to SIP sooner than many others may think, simply to protect us all from this practice.

Would those of you who have had what you think is this year’s flu please say what your symptoms were, and how the course of the disease progressed? I become quite distressed when I see people say they have the flu, and then they go on to describe the symptoms of food poisoning or a norovirus - not to say I think that’s what’s happening in this case at all. People should close schools in a norovirus outbreak, but I’ve not heard of them doing it.

I’m not as familiar with type B as with type A flu, and would be very interested in the symptomatology.

We live in close proximity to the area in question . . . too close for me.

Homesteader – at 13:45

Aches, pains, fever, deep fatigue, sweats, tight/heaviness in chest, deep racking dry cough followed week later by green pleghm producing cough. Total time 3 weeks give a few days.

mcjohnston92 – at 14:09

In addition to the symptoms listed by Homesteader above, I have always had an additional 3 to 6 weeks of fatigue, runny nose and dry hacking cough—lingering and hanging on and on. It feels like a couple of months. And, if you are exposed to another bug, coronavirus, pnuemococcus, Haemophilius Influenzae (spelling??), etc, while you are recovering, expect to be down for a while longer as the opportunistic secondary infection will pounce on you in your weakened state and make you sicker than it otherwise would.

diana – at 14:18

Came down with something that could have been a cold or allergy. Decided it was allergy, but avoided some gatherings, in case I was contageous.. Cleared up in two days unlike a cold. The church I do on occassion attend ,does shake hands, holds hands in a circle a number of times, in the more intimate service I attend during the week. They drink if they so choose from the communal cup after it is wiped with a cloth, or dip into the chalice. This service ,held in a side chapel is more hands on, but less likely to pass on illnesses, as the people don’t attend if they are ill, and there are less than a dozen attending at any time. I prefer it to the Sunday service. Perhaps your churches have services on days other than Sunday. The Catholic Church has early morning services for the most devout who start their day this way. I am not ill, but had a dry cough which was so irritating that my diaphram is sore. If it was a cold it hasn’t lingered, and allergies and colds share symptomology. What people should do, and what they actually do are two different things. Traditional things change very slowly, though saying “Peace” and shaking hands is a reletively new introduction, and under normal conditions a pleasant interaction. If we have an epidemic, much less a pandemic of flu, they should reconsider and announce it during the service.I might bring this up as a question the next time I attend.

cottontop – at 14:45

mcjohnston92 @ 14:09

this is what’s been happening to me. I had back to back colds, got a reprieve, and have picked up something else this week. I use hand santizer, and wash my hands, and my hands are so cracked, that repeated doeses of lotion have not helped. We have really stepped up hand washing, and wiping down since school started, and it seems to be in vain. This time around, it’s deep in my lungs, not so much in my head. I have no aches, no fever, but I am fatigued, and so tired of coughing up green stuff you’d find on an alien plantet. No one else in my family is sick. I seem to be “the chosen one” for sickness, and I’m in reasonable good health.

Leo7 – at 14:52

The woman next door to me has the same symptoms listed by all of you, but she had the flu shot three weeks ago. Did anyone with these syptoms have the flu shot?

Sunny – at 15:01

I have hesitated to post about this but it seems important - at least for lessons to be learned.

A good friend, a teacher, has been hospitalized twice in the last month with flu.

The day she was admitted to the little local hospital, there were 4 others admitted with the same symptoms, and this caused complete overload for the hospital - my friend’s husband had to stay, change sheets, help her, etc. due to overloaded nurses.

She got worse and worse, was given morphine for pain, was terribly dehydrated, etc.

After a week of IV to restore hydration, various IV meds, etc. she was sent home.

She “relapsed” and her husband took her to a nearby city to a pulmonary specialist who hospitalized her in a big city hospital.

The flu had turned to pneumonia of course and she had very damaged and inflamed lungs (I am not a health care worker so I may have terms wrong).

She was treated with lots of stuff including what I think was a steroid because the doctor said it would help with the severe inflammation.

So, the lessons?

 - Well, for one they never tested to see what kind of flu she had

 - second, small hospitals will fold quickly one way or another 

- 3rd, there will be no pulmonary specialist to help locally and those in cities will be deluged if they are even around -

4th, if this was just “regular” flu which I am sure it was, in case of anything worse, we certainly are screwed.

5th, she is a teacher in an area with a fairly large number of legal and illegal immigrants - but, no testing

Lots of sick kids, teachers but local reports say no more than usual for flu season BUT an early flu season for sure!

TreasureIslandGalat 15:04

it takes AT LEAST 2 weeks to build up even a little immunity to the flu after the shot. She could have been harboring it for 2–7 days before even showing symptoms. Maybe her symptoms took a little longer to manifest because she had built up some immunity. In any case, getting the flu shot isn’t instant immunity. it takes a while. she probably didn’t have it in her system long enough, or the flu she go tisn’t a “match” to the strain in the shot, or , she doesn’t even have the flu and just has a bad cold. she should go get tested for the flu. -she may get a prescription for tamiflu that she may or may not decide to use now. ;)

cottontop – at 15:06

Leo7- Funny you should mention that, because we got our 3 weeks ago. The other three are fine, and have not displayed one symptom. I am the only one.

crfullmoon – at 15:07

:-(

Kathy in FL – at 15:13

cottontop – at 14:45

Better go check and see if something you’ve had isn’t trying to turn into bronchitis. Sounds like it … or walking pnuemonia, especially the fatigue part. Better safe than sorry.

diana – at 15:13

The North Carolina thing. Http://www.citizen-times.com apps/pb…D=20061102046 and Http;//www.citizen-times.com apps/pb…D=200661102029… Evidently Yancy County is hit hard. They have terms mixed up. It might be a epidemic, but they are calling it a pandemic which it’s not.

Leo7 – at 15:20

TIG:

My neighbor called me cause she realized she was in trouble. Her shot going by her calendar was on October 11. Plenty of time to be primed and pumped, even if in her late sixities. She walks two miles a day, nearly every day. She has had classic flu symptoms for over three days when she called me. She had decreased breath sounds in her left lung so I called an ambulance for her. She couldn’t even sit on the side of the bed without feeling dizzy and nearly fainting on me. Her son met her at the hospital. Today he called to thank me she has viral pneumonia. The doctor told him either the vaccine didn’t match or it wasn’t given correctly. I said what type of flu—he didn’t know but said he would ask later today. Her story is close to Sunny’s friend’s story although Sunny doesn’t say if her friend had a flu shot or not.

cottontop – at 15:26

Kathy in Fl- I agree. I forgot what feeling normal feels like. This discussion has also made me remember something that I had forgotten, concerning one of my blood test this past spring. My white blood cell count came back elavated with concern from my doctor. Given this test was taken at 8:00 in the morning, when to my understanding, the count is suppose to be low. Two weeks later another test was done, and results were more acceptable to her, but the blood was taken in the afternoon. So I’m thinking there might be a correlation here as to timing or maybe there is something going on.

cabingirl – at 15:50

I’m out of Charlotte, NC. Mid-day news confirms 250 kids out with flu and closing school in Yancy County (Asheville area). Way too close for comfort. Should be in Charlotte, oh, in about…. NOW! Killer leaf season in Mtns..So should be spreading pretty rapidly back to tourists homes throughout the southeast. Haven’t seen anything about Bird Flu in papers or news locally though. Hopefully just a rumor, as I’ve got my SIP cabins in NC Mtns (above Wilkes County) YIKES….

Sunny – at 15:51

In answer to Leo’s note about my friend and flu shot. She had not gotten this year’s since our local flu clinics had not started - private doctors had none until now - BUT she had always gotten one every previous year. Thanks

04 November 2006

Clawdia – at 15:19

Bumping to ask if anyone has heard anything new on this . . .

06 November 2006

DennisCat 09:58

Here is yesterday’s news

Flu Keeps Yancey County Schools Closed

Nine schools and 2,000 students will stay out of class tomorrow as the flu hits one mountain community hard.

Last week, hundreds of Yancey County students suddenly found themselves out sick. As a result, all Yancey County schools will remain closed for the next two days to help keep the flu virus from spreading even further. Many parents agree with the school closing to keep their kids, and themselves, away from the virus.

The outbreak of flu symptoms hit 250 students and up to 45 teachers. It forced yancey county officials to close school to control it. State Health Officials say tests show the county appears to have the first two confirmed cases this season. Physicians at mission family Medical Center in Burnsville say they’ve had a slew of flu patients, including some parents who got the flu from their kids. Many more people are requesting the flu shot as well, but doctors warn the shot has no guarantees, it’s just a precaution.

Students in Yancey County will return to classes on Wednesday after a scheduled teacher workday on Tuesday.

posted 11:38pm, 11/05/06

http://tinyurl.com/y4qalz

crfullmoon – at 10:03

“Many more people are requesting the flu shot as well, but doctors warn the shot has no guarantees, it’s just a precaution.” = they don’t have enough to vax everyone if they wanted it?

Hope they are cleaning the school surfaces well in the meantime…

aurora – at 14:59

Just in case someone doesn’t know it, pharmacies are giving flu shots too – CVS, Rite Aid, Eckerd - probably others as well.

My oldest son and I got our shots on Friday at a CVS. They had already given 100 shots in the first two hours of their flu clinic.

I asked if they had any trouble getting vaccine. The nurse looked very surprised, and said “Oh, no, we always order it.”

It wasn’t clear if that meant they always get the amount they want or if she is very removed from the ordering process and so hasn’t a clue.

Clawdia – at 15:17

Some grocery stores around are also having flu clinics - I got my vaccine at a Food Lion, daughter got hers at a Kroger.

diana – at 15:55

I don’t know if they have CVS stores in North Carolina. I would recommend your checking out their minute clinic staffed by Nurse Practitioners. I mentioned it in more detail on the Dummies thread. I got my Pneumonvax 23 injection. They are open 6 days a week. It is a valuable adjunct to your medical needs. You have your primary physician and your specialists, this is one more resource. I don’t mean this to be spam, but many have expressed frustration in getting the pneumovac. Check them out.

Clawdia – at 16:01

There are many CVS stores in NC.

diana – at 16:21

The minute clinic in my local CVS opened last week. They carved out a small office for the Nurse Practioner. Give various injections, do simple tests, and take care of common complaints. Open from 8a.m. to 8p.m. on weekdays and until 4p.m. on Saturdays. I was in and out in no time for my Pneumovax 23.

David – at 16:24

Seems to be quite a NC contingent on fluwiki… of course more would be here seeing it is an NC story… Anyway, hi to all my fellow North Carolinians… I work in Charlotte and live in Belmont. Stomach virus is running through my daughter’s high school, but is not flu as symptoms are nausea, vomiting and fatigue, but recovery withing 24 to 36 hours…

07 November 2006

Betty – at 03:48

Yancey flu scare draws CDC by Angie Newsome, ANEWSOME@CITIZEN-TIMES.COM published November 7, 2006 12:15 am Reader Feedback: Comment on this article | Register here

A Centers for Disease Control and Prevention research team is scheduled to arrive in Yancey County this week to investigate a recent flu outbreak that closed schools and some churches.

Lynda Kinnane, supervisor of the Yancey County Health Department, said the four-person research team would help local and regional officials research how the flu spread from person to person and whether the decision to close the school system last Wednesday was effective.

http://citizen-times.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=200661106081

08 November 2006

Clawdia – at 12:44

This situation appears to be getting worse, not better.

Yancey extends school closures Flu outbreak still under investigation

by Angie Newsome, ANEWSOME@CITIZEN-TIMES.COM published November 8, 2006 12:15 am Reader Feedback: Comment on this article | Register here

As state and federal health officials begin to research the spread of a flu outbreak in Yancey County, local officials decided Tuesday to keep the county’s nine-school system closed until Monday.

The school system will take annual leave days today and Thursday, Yancey County Manager Michele Lawhern said. The system already planned to close Friday in observance of Veterans Day.

Lawhern said officials extended the schools’ closure, in part, because about 44 staff members would be out sick today, the day the system was originally set to reopen.

Yancey officials decided last Wednesday to close the school system after about 250 children and up to 45 staff members became sick with flulike symptoms. State public health officials confirmed Thursday that the county had the first cases of flu in the state this flu season.

“In general terms, the numbers are coming down slightly in the pediatric or child population,” she said. “However, it’s increasing a bit in the adult population.”

The illness is still showing up among new populations, specifically in the eastern part of the county and among siblings of sick children countywide.

Lawhern said officials are tracking the illness through a range of local and regional data from places including the community college, area hospitals, nursing homes and various employers.

This week, representatives of the national Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the N.C. Division of Public Health started researching how the illness spread and whether the decision to close schools was effective.

Acting Health Director Jan Lounsbury with Madison County Health Department said the CDC already asked the department whether the flu had spread there.

Lounsbury said there are two possible flu cases in Madison County adults, though there has been no mass absenteeism at county schools related to the respiratory illness.

Madison County had a mass vaccination clinic Monday, when officials administered up to 180 flu shots. The county is out of flu shots for children, she said. More is expected to arrive, she said, though the date is unknown.


http://citizen-times.com/apps/pbcs….ID=200661107088

ChuckEat 15:13

re: Clawdia’s link in above post.

Its broke try this one

http://tinyurl.com/yfsyy2

Clawdia – at 15:17

ChuckE - thanks for the fix.

09 November 2006

ChuckEat 09:51

More schools closed in NC. Looks like a really bad flu season is upon us. From the article-

“Mitchell County canceled school today for its 2,200 students after health officials confirmed about 20 flu cases.”

“school officials believe the virus has been coming from Yancey County where schools closed last week”

http://tinyurl.com/y3568p

Leo7 – at 11:26

North Carolinians:

I thought a CDC team went to Yancey County. To see if it was appropriate to close the schools etc. Was there a public report yet?

DennisCat 13:15

Flu outbreak in Mitchell County closes schools

“There’s no school Thursday for students in the Mitchell County school district. That after 20 confirmed flu cases and the threat of the illness spreading…”

http://tinyurl.com/yj9ajm

Northeast Tennessee bracing for possible flu outbreak

“An influenza outbreak in the mountain counties of western North Carolina has northeast Tennessee health officials concerned. …At a flu clinic in Unicoi County last week, only about 300 people were inoculated, leaving about 200 doses of vaccine unused. …”

http://tinyurl.com/ycspnn

Clawdia – at 13:47

Does anyone know if CDC has arrived on the scene as yet?

DennisCat 13:51

Clawdia – at 13:47

…This week, representatives of the national Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the N.C. Division of Public Health started researching how the illness spread and whether the decision to close schools was effective.

Acting Health Director Jan Lounsbury with Madison County Health Department said the CDC already asked the department whether the flu had spread there.

Lounsbury said there are two possible flu cases in Madison County adults, though there has been no mass absenteeism at county schools related to the respiratory illness.

http://tinyurl.com/y8bffu

Tink – at 14:07

It has been a few days now, and no reported deaths. This can’t be H5N1.

mcjohnston92 – at 15:12

I don’t think it is h5n1 either. But, the key is that tricky little “reported” word. However, I do think that numbers of deaths would be hard or impossible to hide in this country. That is not to say that TPTB will not try…

For Homesteader—

Any more word from the feed store??

cottontop – at 15:20

Can anyone give me that site for the nation flu watch? I’ve lost mine, again!

Remember that the 1918 pandemic started out with the regular flu, lasting only a few days, and no deaths were reported. (if memory serves). A few months later, the biggie hit.

cottontop – at 15:21

the flu only lasting a few days for the individual I ment to say.

InfoLadyat 16:34

I live in NC and the news on this has been sketchy at best — not a good sign for reporting getting out on any future pandemics. (In other words, it could be right on top of us and would we really know??)

Got my flu shot (and one for my son) yesterday. (First chance we had, not being “high risk”). Figure this seasonal flu may move through the state via the school systems, so best to be prepared.

Cygnet – at 17:21

Couple of questions, comments, and observations I’m throwing out here in hopefully a semi-coherent form ‘cause it’s quitting time and I’m in a hurry.

1. This may not be (and probably is not) H5N1. There have been a few tests indicating it’s Flu B. However, this does not mean it can’t go pandemic. A pandemic with a low CFR has the potential to be a big huge honking pain in the butt because people are NOT going to quarantine (I know I won’t) and the R0 may therefore be higher than a pandemic with a higher CFR. Given the rate of infection so far, it sounds like it’s pretty hot, particularly for Flu B.

If we get a sufficient rate of infection, we can still have infrastructure failure and shortages of supplies.

2. Does anyone know if the strain of Flu B they’ve identified is one that’s circulated before, recently, or (better yet) is covered in this year’s vx? Because if there’s no native immunity and no vx for it, see above about pandemic. Doesn’t have to have a high CFR to be a pain in the patookas for a few months. This may be why the CDC is there … to determine this.

3. Election factor. We just had large numbers of people congregating at polling places for the elections. These people likely included flu patients who drug themselves out of bed to vote. All it takes is one person snotting flu virus on the tables, pens, booths, and voting machines to spread the bug to the next few hundred people who vote there. I am betting we see another surge of cases in the area …

Anyway. Worth considering and watching, I think.

anonymous – at 17:48

cottontop: Hope this helps.

http://www.fluwatch.com

Argyll.

Bump - Bronco Bill – at 21:12
P’cola prepper – at 22:20

Good evening all. Just wanted to ask, if CDC wants to know if closing of schools and churches, what have you, is effective at stopping the spread of flu, couldn’t they tell that by the incoming doctors reports to their offices?? Would they really have to go out into the field to investigate?? And as far as finding out how the flu was spread, duh… from person to person close contact in school, churches, public etc.! I am feeling extremely suspicious about this tonight, especially in light of the fact that this whole thread began with someone being told a “rumor” that bird flu was in NC from a farm supply store employee. If that person doesn’t know what’s going on with the local chicken farmers who does?

K from Mi – at 22:30

anonymous at 17:48 Nice link Anyone seen anything like it for other countries?

Newname – at 22:39

On another forum it was stated by a woman with 3 sick kids that her doctor told her that the current vaccine doesn’t help with the current strain of flu going around.

Three counties bordering on Yancy also have lots of flu cases and are closing schools. Tennessee is now concerned also as they have started to get flu cases in kids.

Does the seasonal flu spread like this normally and we just have’nt watched it before?

aurora – at 23:20

Re: North Carolina’s influenza B…

I just got a notice from state health officials that Pennsylvania has confirmed it’s first case of influenza - influenza B…

11/9/06 Advisory-Influenza Activity in Pennsylvania

“Positive influenza test identified: The Pennsylvania Department of Health released the following statement on November 9, 2006, regarding influenza activity throughout the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.

On November 9, 2006 a case of influenza B was confirmed by the Department of Health Bureau Laboratories. This is the first influenza case in Pennsylvania confirmed by the Bureau of Laboratories in the 2006–2007 influenza season. The specimen was collected on October 30, 2006, from a 20 month old resident of Philadelphia.

Further subtyping of the influenza isolate is in progress.”

10 November 2006

Leo7 – at 00:02

They won’t change the current flu vaccine, because it’s just too late. This flu B will have to be dealt with, without a vaccine because I don’t think CDC has ever gone back to the drawing board when they guessed wrong. I agree with Cygnet, this one is hot and virulent, at least in North Carolina. Update on my neighbor: Very shaky-ventilator two days, but she does have an asthmatic history. Currently, getting better and breathing with O2 mask.

If the circulating flu strain isn’t in the seasonal vaccine what we’re seeing in NC is normal, except I though B was more mild than A.

Leo7 – at 00:07

Folks:

I forgot to mention that on Nov 7 news thread I put in a tiny url for a flufacts.com site where you can plug in your zipcode and see a graph for local flu compared to national flu. Since Nove 7 my city went from a 3 to a 7. Would you folks mind putting in the Yancey zip code and telling the rest of us what the bar graph states? Please?

Leo7 – at 00:26

I put in three zip codes in NC 28714, 28740, 28755 and all three were below the national average. I don’t understand why my city-schools still open- at a 7 on graph and three zips in Yancey county, NC is below 2. Since my city has gone up in two days from 3–7 I don’t think the site is lagging behind in data. What’s up?

anonymous – at 00:31

Leo 7 - Burnsville, NC is the seat of Yancey County, and the zip code there is 28714. The graph at flufacts.com is currently showing that location at a 1 (low) for flu status.

beehiver – at 00:32

The above post was made by me, beehiver.

Lavendergrl – at 00:42

Cottontop, lay off the handwashing with soap & water and just use the alcohol gel and healing hand cream. Udder Butter and the creams made for cows work well, too.

Leo7 – at 00:42

So the CDC is in that zipcode to check out the virus that shut a school system down and that county is at a 1 on the graph? Does anyone know another site we can check for flu stats by state, county or zip?

aurora – at 01:25

Do we know if any of the states that have influenza B have identified the strain? Maybe it’s covered in this year’s vaccine?

aurora – at 01:58

“Each year, the vaccine contains three strains, including two A strains, to help to protect people from flu-like symptoms. This year, they are A/New Caledonia/20/99 (H1N1), A/Wisconsin/67/2005 (H3N2) and B/Malaysia/2506/2004.”

The article also reports that the WHO has been correct in their selection of viruses 22 of the pst 25 years.

http://www.pentictonherald.ca/article_2359.php

Cygnet – at 06:22

Re: feed store — DON’T assume the person behind the counter at the feed store knows what the heck they’re talking about. Feed store employees are often paid very low wages with no benefits. They get what they pay for as far as education goes. Homesteading/livestock/horse/poultry boards (of which I’m a member) have pretty constant complaints about misinformation about NUTRITIONAL needs of livestock from feed stores and THAT is their BUSINESS. I would not expect a feed store employee to know anything about law ‘cept maybe what the last person through the store said. (This is NOT to diss ALL feed store employees. Some do actually know what they’re doing … and I use a feed store where the owner and her long-term employees actually have a clue … but not all due.)

For a better idea of what’s going on in the state in poultry, you might contact the local state show association(s) — they generally have an idea about what’s going around as many of them have $$$ birds.

nann – at 08:13

I am wondering if the ‘epidemic’ in No. Carolina is being shown on TV news. I don’t have a working TV right now. I haven’t heard anyone talking about it, except here in the forums.

cottontop – at 08:20

nann- I have not heard of it on my local news, or newspaper, or even on national t.v. I only heard about it from alertmap, and here.

nann – at 08:22

Yes that is strange. I also went to a map, and it clearly showed it. It is very real.

Homesteader – at 08:35

Cygnet at 6:22

Point well taken. However, in this case it is a family business run by former chicken farmers. The “lowest employee” so to speak is the son of the owner. He has a degree in Poultry Science from NC State.

I spoke with the father recently. He knows as much about the bird flu situation as I do. He knew the vaccine process backwards and forwards and knows that is not going to happen. The example he used in our conversation was the vaccination for pink eye in cattle; there are 100+ strains of pink eye and the vaccine includes 7 of them, so why waste your money on the vaccine.

A former Lurker – at 08:44

About the reports on TV. I’m in NC and watch the Raliegh news casts. I’ve been waiting for the news to carry the story also. They finally did. About three sentences worth. It went something like this …..Mitchell County is closing their schools because of the flu. They have had 20 cases reported. Last week Yancy county had their schools closed to stop the spead of the flu (no mention about the amount of cases or how long the schools were closed)….. Thats it, on to the next story. Perhaps the CDC is compiling the numbers on what effect early school closeures would have on the spread of the flu. I can only hope. I’ve been in NC since ‘79 and raised 3 children in public schools, they have NEVER closed schools for flu in any of the districts I’ve lived in.

cottontop – at 08:59

It’s not what they say, it’s what they do.

David – at 09:40

Homesteader - at 08:35, I sort of agree with the pink eye example, but it is somewhat lacking. If the 100+ strains are basically equal, then the vaccination may well be a waste of money. If the 7 strains included in the vaccination account for a large percentage of cases because they are the most virulent, or are currently the most active, then it may well be worth the money. Sort of like saying don’t get the flu shot because there are thousands of strains, and the vaccination only covers three… ;-) Oh, for what it’s worth, I usually don’t get the flu shot… go figure…

I am also in NC, in the Charlotte area. My wife heard a report about school closures on the radio (106.9, which is out of the Ashville area and is nearer to the affected counties than Charlotte is). I have lived in NC my entire life, and I also do not recall any school closures due to flu. But I can remember several closure for cold rain!!! :−0 Missed snow forcasts!!!

anonymous – at 09:58

I saw the reference to pink eye in the above posts. With regard to the NC flu cases, is conjunctivitis (“pink eye”) one of the symptoms?

Thanks,

Argyll.

David – at 10:17

anonymous – at 09:58 Pink eye has nothing to do with nothing - it was a vaccine example, not connected to the flu 8=(. I should have just let that pass. But, I did read Homesteader’s post again, and I have a question. Where you say “and knows that is not going to happen.” I may be a little obtuse, but what is the “that” that is “not going to happen”?

anonymous – at 10:30

A former lurker:

Your comment about the CDC has me thinkking back to their study on social distancing (it’s on their web site). I had not considered that before. It does make good sense to compile information for reference. I do hope those ill in North Carolina are feeling better soon!

Argyll.

BP – at 10:31

Could someone please remove this thread there is no BF in North Carolia I live in the area and it is simply common flu. Keeping this open just invites more rumors. Thanks

David – at 10:38

BP – at 10:31 - Can you believe the wonderful weather here the past (and next) couple of days! It would be good, if possible, to rename this discussion to “Flu in NC.” Hope you can avoid it. I figure, as pointed out above, that all those going to look at the leaves will spread this flu in the next couple of weeks. My in-laws have a house in Ashe county, and will be retiring and moving up there permanently at the end of this month.

anonymous – at 10:53

I also agree a title change to “Flu in NC” would be better, too. It would avoid confusion with BF.

Argyll.

cottontop – at 11:06

No one is saying there is bird flu in NC. This thread started out as someone was told there was or could be BF in NC. Hence, Rumors of bird flu in NC. We all understand that it is the flu we are watching in NC. Go back and read the start of the thread.

DennisCat 11:12

The title is “historical”. There is no need to try to revise history. This shows clearly that rumors can develop into real information. It may not be what you originally think, but sometimes you can learn something new by following a “rumor”.

cottontop – at 11:19

DennisC-

Very true.

BP – at 11:21

Weather is great here but let’s keep it quite we don’t want to ruin it with more folks showing up. Been here just a few years so I don’t know Ashe county? Where is that? Do you mean Buncombe?

 cottontop – at 11:06 

“Go back and read the start of the thread”

I did read it hence I posted what I did. Please think before you post. “It is better to stay silent and let people think you are an idiot than to open your mouth and remove all doubt” Lincoln

BP – at 11:23

DennisC – at 11:12

With all due respect no everyone has that kind of time. The topic is misleading and diminishes the quaility of this forum.

DennisCat 11:25

It looks from here that cottontop was responding to anonymous and not you. If you are the same as anonymous then it illustrates why it is always better to post with a handle to avoid confusion and hurt feelings.

BP – at 11:28

DennisC – at 11:25

Never have been “anonymous” however my uncle is has been dry for 21 years. Always have been BP on this forum always will. No need to hide what I say.

TreasureIslandGalat 11:31

BP, I agree. The original thread was a rumor about bird flu in birds in NC and it then become mostly about regular human flu in NC. It then starts drifting back to the bird flu rumor again. This is a misleading thread and makes it seem like we are drawing a correlation between the two.

Maybe a MOD can create a “copy-paste” of the human flu parts into a new thread titled “Ongoing Regional Flu Outbreaks”.

BP – at 11:35

Of course others could use the handle BP so my previous statement would be inaccurate. So let me rephrase, I will always use BP however that may not be exclusive to just me, however I will never post as “anonymous”. That should be a little clearer.

DennisCat 11:37

I don’t see why someone saying it was a rumor Nov 2 by hearing a conversation in a feed store is misleading. If it worries you, why don’t you start a new thread- something like Follow up on the NC Flu Rummors, Follow up on the NC Flu cases or something similar and post a link to the new thread. Realize “we” cannot change a thread title- that is left for moderators and is best asked over in the ask the mod thread.

As far as I know “they” (CDC) has not said what kind of Flu it was. Although some early “rumors” was that it might be type B. But we know that type B is normally not that bad for children over 5. Do anyone know the exact nature of the Flu in NC. Has it been identified by sequence/type?

Argyll – at 11:38

In my above three posts, I forgot to list my author as Argyll. But, I always sign my posts with my name at the end. Just a habit. Somehow yesterday the Author automatically listed my name, but today that is not the case. I will make certain to check that box before posting any new posts. But, even still you will see my name at the end of my posts. So, feel free to direct any questions to me — Argyll.

Argyll.

BP – at 11:41

TreasureIslandGal – at 11:31

That is all I am saying. Facts are facts. If the BF becomes pandemic this forum needs to stay clear and focused and the only way to do that is to train ourselves to be that way now.

BP – at 11:43

Here are the facts

http://www.citizen-times.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=200661109077

“State public health officials last week said preliminary tests confirmed that the Yancey County illness is influenza B, a milder form of the seasonal flu virus, the first cases confirmed this flu season. Another flu case has been preliminarily confirmed in Nash County, Engel said.”

DennisCat 11:51

I tried to start a new thread to help keep the peace and make things clearer.

http://tinyurl.com/y9y2cn

Follow Up on Seasonal Flu Cases in NC

Hope that helps some.

will someone post a recap over there to help things along- thanks.

David – at 11:59

BP – at 11:21

Ashe county is the one at the top northwest corner of NC. Borders VA to the north and Tenessee to the west.

cottontop – at 12:01

Well, really don’t understand why the upset, so I’m just gonna slink over to the lounge.

(DennisC- I really would not want your job!)

NCPeabrainat 12:53

If you worked for the department of Health for the state of NC and wanted to prevent a panic, how would you do it? Let the people think it’s “B” instead of “A”? Keep it out of the news? Let the people think that the closing of the schools is standard operating proceedure under the present circumstances? What would the difference be if it is BF?

pogge – at 12:54

By request, I’m closing this and referring everyone to this thread.

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04 November 2006

Jane – at 18:52

Taiwan “Doctors failing to report dengue fever face fines” is the headline in the Taipei Times

<snip> Individual doctors will face fines of between NT$90,000 (US$ 2,734) and NT$450,000 while hospitals face fines of up to NT$1,500,000.

<snip>According to Chou, patients sometimes ask doctors to keep their status hidden to avoid the hassle of being tracked and having sanitation teams come to spray their homes.<snip> “Some patients are only diagnosed with dengue fever after four or five visits to the doctor. This is holding back our efforts to stem the disease’s spread this year,” Chou said. Since the start of summer, a total of 530 dengue fever cases have been reported in the country, with 366 cases in Kaohsiung City, 151 cases in Kaohsiung County, nine cases in Pingtung County, two in Tainan County, and one each in Taipei City and Keelung City, according to CDC tallies.

Meanwhile, 10 cases of dengue hemorrhagic fever have been reported, two of which resulted in deaths.

Both fatalities occurred in Kaohsiung City, including a 76-year-old man who died on Wednesday. <snip>

comment The article doesn’t say if the other 8 have recovered or are still sick.

Jane – at 18:54

Sorry, here’s the link. taipei times

Bronco Bill – at 18:56

Jane --- Is this going to be one of the Worldwide Lookouts threads? If so, I’m going to add it to the Forum Index…

Thanks

Jane – at 19:04

Taiwan editorial dated Oct. 3-new law prohibiting wet markets is being flouted.

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2006/10/03/2003330257

Concluding paragraph: The new rules, if they are followed, will not help prevent bird flu, but they will succeed in divorcing the nation’s shoppers still further from the reality of where their food comes from and killing off yet another traditional way of life.

http://www.tinyurl.com/yarv83

Jane – at 19:13

Yes, Bronco Bill, it’s for section 18, at least it’s for part of section 18. Anyone want to look at China or Mongolia? Forum/HongKong? I found 2 papers listed for North Korea-one wouldn’t load and the other will never expose any problems, imho. But I’ll keep checking.

Bronco Bill – at 21:50

Jane – at 19:13 --- Done. Added to Forum Index at http://www.fluwikie.com/pmwiki.php?n=Opinion.ForumTopics#world

06 November 2006

Jane – at 12:07

South Korea: An opinion piece on prioritizing vaccine recipients, using the arguments of Ezekiel Emanuel of NIH, who favors saving the most “life years” by vaccinating those from 13 to 40 years old, and vaccinating those who go out into society first and those who stay home last. Discussing priorities before the fact would be best. (No mention of essential workers.) This is also an explanation of how pandemics start, and a recap of Emanuel’s argument in a Wall Street Journal article from earlier (I don’t remember when).

prioritizing vax

This is not exactly news, but it’s the only flu-related story today for Japan, S. Korea and Taiwan. No news is good news?

Nimbus – at 12:18

Bronco Bill - could you possibly add Lookout Post for to the title of this thread? That would make it consistent with the other Worldwide Lookout threads and also make it much easier to find with a search.

Thanks in advance!

Treyfish – at 22:22

http://tinyurl.com/yxn9wf Here is Vietnam on finishing up bird vaccinations.With vaccine from China, yes?

Jane – at 22:27

Would the Chinese use Fujian or the earlier version? Or, is the vax out of date or not?

Nimbus – at 22:42

US citizens in HK told to stockpile for bird flu outbreak

Hong Kong (dpa) - US citizens in Hong Kong have been advised to build a three-month stockpile of food, medicine and water in their homes in case of a bird flu pandemic, a news report said Tuesday.

An advisory has been sent out to all 60,000 registered US citizens in the former British colony urging them to prepare the stockpiles ahead of the coming winter flu season.

It suggests stockpiling 4.5 litres of water per person per day and to prepare water purification equipment in case of complete infrastructure breakdown, the South China Morning Post reported.

The advisory also suggests they stock up on non-perishable foods, soap, alcohol-based hand wash, medicines, vitamins, flashlights and a portable radio, the newspaper said.

Six people died and 12 others were infected in the first modern outbreak of bird flu to jump the species barrier and attack humans in Hong Kong in 1997.

Since then, however, the city of 6.8 million has built up sophisticated safeguards against the virus and avoided further human cases despite a spate of regional outbreaks.

Hong Kong has carried out mass culls of birds and ducks when cases have been detected among poultry and birds imported from mainland China are screened for the virus.

Scientists believe bird flu may cause deaths on a global scale greater than the Spanish Flu of 1918 which killed up to 40 million if the virus mutates to jump from human to human.

http://www.mb.com.ph/MAIN2006110779051.html

Jane – at 23:13

Taiwan The Department of Health (DOH) said yesterday that no effort had been spared in working to tackle the outbreak of dengue fever in southern Taiwan since the beginning of this summer.<snip>

<snip>Legislator Hou noted that 10 of Kaohsiung City’s 11 districts have been affected by dengue fever, calling it a worrisome situation and saying that relevant authorities should apologize for their inability to control the outbreak more efficiently.<snip>

Officials responded that they haven’t taken any time off since the outbreak started.

<snip>Furthermore, the Ministry of National Defense had also dispatched a chemical corps to the affected region to assist in disinfection work aimed at wiping out virus-carrying mosquitoes, the health minister added.

Jane – at 23:14

09 November 2006

Jane – at 19:34

South Korea Mixed Feelings as Crows Return to Ulsan

The crows are back in Ulsan. Crows are becoming the city’s trademark migratory bird, arriving from Central Asia and Siberia in the late fall for the seventh year running now. Some 60,000 of them came to the city last year, making it the largest site in Korea for crows to spend the winter for several years. The city says some 10,000 crows have already arrived and another 50,000–60,000 will get here by next month.<snip>

<snip> The city has taken measures to prevent infectious diseases the birds may be carrying and started sampling their excrement in Ulju county on Wednesday. The city says it is extremely rare that humans come down with bird flu, and no bird flu has been found in crow excrement for the last two years. http://english.chosun.com/w21data/html/news/200611/200611090027.html

Jane – at 19:56

Japan

“Developers flush after developing waterless water closet” The toilet uses sawdust instead of water, which needs changing only twice a year. It talks of using the end product as garden fertilizer if it’s ever approved.

http://mdn.mainichi-msn.co.jp/waiwai/news/20061106p2g00m0dm008000c.html

comment The article translates some terms freely, not in the formal language usually found in newspapers. It’s sort of funny. :)

DemFromCTat 21:19

test - bump

10 November 2006

Jane – at 18:47

Thanks, Dem!

Taiwan

“PRC spreading AIDS to island, experts say”

A recent explosion of HIV-AIDS cases in Taiwan is coming from China and is being spread by drug users, prompting the island to step up its prevention efforts, medical experts said yesterday. The HIV strain among Taiwan’s intravenous drug users was the same as that circulating in western China, particularly in an area near the Golden Triangle, said Chen Yi-ming, a professor at the Institute of Public Health at Yangming University in Taipei.<snip> In July every city and province began giving out free needles. <snip>

HIV/AIDS in Taiwan

http://www.tinyurl.com/yaw76o

Jane – at 19:04

Japan

“Public Hospital Doctors Being Left Out in the Cold” Anesthesiologists are overworked because there aren’t enough to cover the operations of the many surgeons in Japan. Also some surgeons are incompetent and take twice as long to complete an operation as a good surgeon would.

<snip>The “collapse of medicine,” which started with anesthesiology, gradually spread to other branches of medicine such as obstetrics and pediatrics. Now, internal medicine is facing a serious crisis that could lead to collapse. When that happens, it could trigger the collapse of surgery and eventually cause chaos within the entire Japanese medical establishment.<snip>

overworked doctors http://www.tinyurl.com/yczsto

Jane – at 19:22

Japan

The municipal public health care center in Otaru, Hokkaido, published a pamphlet last month about measures to prevent new types of flu and distributed copies to public facilities.

The center received numerous inquiries from other health care centers, as well as companies from around the nation.

Tatsuhito Tonooka, head of the Otaru center responsible for the pamphlet, is worried about the limited amount of information available on new strains of flu and has collated the latest information, from home and abroad, on a Web site (http://homepage3.nifty.co/sank/).

pamphlet recommends masks http://www.tinyurl.com/y8vp78

comment And he didn’t publish another pamphlet the next week with watered-down information. Good for you, Mr. Tonooka!

11 November 2006

Jane – at 22:16

‘’‘South Korea” Nine-day conferrence in Seoul to discuss weather disaster preparation

<snip>Calamities caused by weather account for 90 percent of natural disasters, and are often more deadly than other accidents. To discuss better and more scientific methods to monitor and prevent such catastrophes, experts have gathered in Seoul for a nine-day extraordinary session of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).<snip>

<snip>Experts say early detection and precautionary measures have proven more cost-effective in addition to minimizing casualties. They say US$1 invested in monitoring weather-related catastrophes saves $7 to 10 spent on post-disaster relief. Though human life is far too precious to carry a monetary value, resources invested into a better network to manage disasters in advance is certainly money well spent.

planning for weather disasters

http://tinyurl.com/y96cmu

comment Now if they would only expand the planning to save precious lives in a pandemic…..

Jane – at 22:31

China New US bird flu report lacks evidence base

The paper contains “ungrounded statements,” Chen Hualan, director of the National Avian Influenza Reference Laboratory, and Shu Yuelong, director of the National Influenza Centre under the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, told China Daily in an interview. The following is the transcript of the interview.<snip>

[[http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/opinion/2006-11/10/content_729346.htm|interview/US has no evidence

http://www.tinyurl.com/y9l7ll (the only numbers in this url are 9 and 7)

This looks like the story we’ve seen before, but here’s a transcript, according to the beginning of the article. (Have to confess I haven’t read it all.)

14 November 2006

lifeisgreat – at 11:27

Check out BBC News | Health | Pig flu sparks epidemic fears http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/489385.stm Forgive me if I have posted this in the wrong place or if it has already been posted. The essence of the bbc article is that an exotic flu strain identified in Hong Kong appears to have crossed from pigs to humans. Since foreign residents have already been warned to prep for three months this article caught my eye. Thanks

newore – at 12:56

lifeisgreat at 11:27

October 1999 date stamp on the article

Jane – at 16:42

South Korea Sixty students in two areas of So. Korea have been diagnosed with TB in the past year. (Middle school and high school students are tested regularly.) The students have been treated and are back in their regular classrooms. In the past year, in another area of So. Korea, 243 students were found to have TB, but “no mass outbreaks” were found.

comment The numbers of patients in the article didn’t add up to 60, but at least it sounds like normal, treatable, tuberculosis.

TB in Korean students

http://www.tinyurl.com/y69dcv

Jane – at 17:05

South Korea

There were more than 35 thousand cases of tuberculosis diagnosed in South Korea in the past year. Dozens of school officials at three schools in a part of Seoul were diagnosed in July. All of the cases are responding to first-line drugs (none are the drug-resistant type of TB). The number of cases of TB had been dropping but started rising in 2000.

http://joongangdaily.joins.com/200611/14/200611142205042809900090409041.htmlTB in So. Korea

http://www.tinyurl.com/yk9j8f

Jane – at 17:14

South Korea

South Korean officials will inspect steamed Chinese ducks eggs for cancerous substance, since the seizure of 97 kilos of eggs by Chinese officials.

<snip>”According to Xinhua, Chinese officials found that farmers had raised ducks with feed that contained Sudan-IV, an industrial dye, to make their egg yolk turn red. In China, red-yolk duck eggs are considered more nutritious and expensive.”

Chinese preserved duck eggs

http://www.tinyurl.com/ycbte5

15 November 2006

MaMaat 00:35

South Korea

S. Korea to train ASEAN officials to detect bird flu

Yonhap news- “South Korea plans to train livestock experts from Southeast Asian countries, which have reported bird flu cases since the late 1990s, to detect the potentially fatal disease, the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry said Wednesday.

The proposal, which includes detection kit support, will be forwarded at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) plus three agricultural ministers meeting in Singapore later this week…”

http://tinyurl.com/y6slzu

Nimbus – at 08:59

North Korea - Scarlet Fever

A news report says scarlet fever has been spreading in North Korea and threatens to become a full-blown epidemic, despite efforts to contain the disease. South Korea’s Yonhap news agency reports the disease, which broke out in a northern province last month, is rapidly spreading to other parts of the communist state, including the capital, Pyongyang. South Korea’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Unification Ministry, which handles inter-Korean affairs, say they didn’t have information to confirm the media report. Yonhap reports lack of medicine coupled with poor sanitary conditions are to blame for the rapid spread of the fever, which leads to deaths among the aged and infants. Scarlet fever is a rash typically seen in children younger than 18, caused by the same bacteria that’s related to strep throat. It’s spread by contact.

http://tinyurl.com/y83nzj

Jane – at 22:04

Nimbus, are you a subscriber to Yonhap News? I’ve been checking their site and didn’t see that story. (Never mind, just saw that your link is to RSOE.) I check one No. Korean paper, but I don’t expect to see anything of a negative nature.

Japan Japan has organized a system to facilitate communication with foreigners in time of disaster.

<snip>The Japan Operation System of Emergency information for Foreigners (JOSEF) offers communications support programs to municipal governments and is also on hand to help foreign residents in times of emergency, according to officials.<snip>

 A computerized <snip>”database, distributed to local and municipal governments nationwide in July, contains examples of information in six languages that can be used in print or broadcasting in times of natural disaster.<snip>

The organization includes a consultation arm that specializes in helping officials create disaster-related Web sites for cell phones in various languages.

<snip>It also disseminates disaster prevention tips via a monthly electronic mail newsletter and provides tailor-made advice on how to set up services such as multilingual consultation bodies, medical interpretation systems and multilingual radio programs and Web sites.<snip>

http://www.asahi.com/english/Herald-asahi/TKY200611140173.html

http://www.tinyurl.com/y6pj8d

16 November 2006

Nimbus – at 14:16

Deadly virus breaks out, claims life at hospital in Osaka Prefecture

TOYONAKA, Osaka — A 91-year-old patient died and another 79-year-old patient was left in serious condition after a norovirus outbreak occurred at a hospital here, infecting 20 people, it has been learned.

Officials at a branch of Sakamoto Hospital announced the outbreak on Thursday, saying a 91-year-old female patient had died and a 79-year-old man remained in serious condition. A group infection of the norovirus, a common cause of food poisoning, occurred at the same hospital in Toyonaka in January 2005, causing 13 people to contract the virus.

Hospital officials said 16 patients aged between 79 and 99 had contracted the virus, along with four hospital workers aged between 18 and 55. With the exception of the patient who died, all of the remaining infected victims were reportedly making a recovery

<snip>

http://tinyurl.com/ykdeae

20 November 2006

Jane – at 23:11

Taiwan

Dengue fever cases-152 reported for the week, 6 of which were hemorrhagic type. The cases occurred mainly in the South part of Taiwan.

dengue fever in Taiwan

http://www.tinyurl.com/yd3ozd

Treyfish – at 23:17

Did anyone see this report from the 13th about china and hong kong having a pandemic exercise?http://tinyurl.com/yflkrk

13 November 2006

Joint cross-border emergency exercise on infectious diseases

The Mainland, Hong Kong and Macao health authorities today (November 13) organised a joint exercise, code-named Great Wall, on emergency response for a major infectious disease. It aimed to test the emergency response and notification mechanism of the three places in handling cross-border public health emergencies.

The exercise was conducted simultaneously in the three places this morning and a total of about 40 public health professionals participated in this desktop communication exercise through channels such as telephone, facsimile, email and so on. Participating organisations in Hong Kong include the Health, Welfare and Food Bureau, Department of Health and Hospital Authority.

The exercise depicted a scenario whereby a suspected human case of avian influenza was detected in the Mainland. The Ministry of Health immediately notified the health authorities in Hong Kong and Macao of the case. As the patient had travelled to Hong Kong and Macao before the onset of illness, the Centre for Health Protection (CHP) of the Department of Health and the Health Bureau in Macao immediately started epidemiological investigations and implemented emergency response measures. The two authorities also notified the Ministry of Health of their investigation results.

The exercise ended when the Hong Kong and Macao authorities received notification from the Mainland that the patient was recovered and discharged from hospital.

The Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food, Dr York Chow, also paid a visit to the CHP’s Emergency Response Centre to observe the conduct of the exercise. “ The three places signed a ‘Co-operation Agreement on Response Mechanism for Public Health Emergencies’ in Kunming in October last year to enhance collaboration in handling major infectious diseases and agreed to conduct a joint exercise,” he said.

“Exercise Great Wall further strengthens the communication and collaboration among the three places in emergency preparedness and response for public health crisis. It also highlighted the importance of timely notification and collaboration for the prevention of avian influenza and pandemic influenza.”

According to the Cooperation Agreement, should cross-border public health emergencies occur among the three or any two places, the concerned health authorities would immediately notify the others, activate the emergency response mechanism, and form a joint public health emergency response team to coordinate the response measures.

The Director of Health, Dr P Y Lam, said that the three places had convened a tele-conference this morning, and that such mode of communication could further enhance the communication and emergency response capabilities of the three places.

End/Monday, November 13, 2006

23 November 2006

Nimbus – at 16:05

“Bushmeat” link to SARS outbreak confirmed

http://www.newfluwiki2.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=176

Treyfish – at 18:51

here is some south korean flying death news. http://tinyurl.com/uouaa They are not having » View larger photo » Read full article

S. Korea investigating possible bird flu case Khaleej Times (AFP) 23 November 2006 SEOUL - South Korea’s agriculture ministry said Thursday it is investigating a suspected bird flu case in the southern city of Iksan. It said the area where…

Click here to read more a good time there.

Treyfish – at 18:58

http

The Agriculture Ministry said yesterday that it has discovered a suspected case of bird flu at a poultry farm in Iksan, in the southwest of the country. Health inspectors are now conducting tests after about 6,000 of the 13,000 chickens at the farm died between Sunday and Wednesday, Kim Chang-seob, chief veterinary officer at the ministry said at a briefing.

Kim said the government was informed of the incident on Wednesday, raising alarm that the large number of deaths may be an indication the virus is of a virulent strain.

The discovery comes as the country is on a high bird flu alert as migratory birds, which can easily spread the life-threatening disease, fly to the Korean Peninsula for the winter, the ministry said.

“We have closed the farm and halted the movement of any poultry or eggs from the farm,” Kim said. The ministry also issued an order to temporarily close two hatcheries in the area as further investigations will be conducted. A 10-kilometer radius around the farm will be quarantined.

Kim said the ministry expects to confirm whether the poultry had been infected with bird flu on Saturday. The official said the chickens show signs of bird flu, but was careful not to speculate that it was of the potentially deadly H5N1 strain of avian influenza.

Korea reported its first outbreak of H5N1 in December 2003. About 5.3 million chickens and ducks

 http://tinyurl.com/yyzoo4
 more from another pwper.
Closed and continued – at 23:32

The contents of this thread have now been moved to the new site.

The link is Lookout Posts - Mainland East Asia and Japan

User-agent: msrbot Disallow: / User-agent: BecomeBot Disallow: / Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Have I Gone Too Far Down the Rabbit Hole

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Have I Gone Too Far Down the Rabbit Hole

07 September 2006

Libby in Atlanta – at 20:46

I posted, i posted and now I will post again. If there is really anyone reading these post please tell me where I should put this call for help on this forum. Someone ,anyone just reply a boo so I know this went where I thought it went. Maybe its too boring (what I originally sent) maybe know one cares but for my sanity I will keep asking until out of the goodness of someones heart they will respond. One other question ,where did the last post go to? Mine that is. Does a little print truck come along and say not worthy and kick it of the screen? I am feeling rather overlooked and useless. Is there someplace I should be looking for newbies stuff? Well I will go read some more and try not to run back down to my office(downstairs). I will go on trying to convince myself it doesn’t matter if I get a boo or not but it does. Thanks for readind this.

stilearning – at 20:50

I don’t know where the rabbit hole is, but the foxes will tell you. Stick around, all kinds of GREAT info due to the GREAT folks here.

NoFluingAroundat 20:53

Libby in Atlanta

Your call for help being answered :o)What is it that I may help you with?

Jackson in North GA – at 20:56

Libby in Atlanta:

Did you read the Atlanta Journal-Constitution article on Bird Flu in the 9/6/06 paper? Dr. Patrick O’Neal (GA’s medical director) said,”There have been studies that the probability - once avian influenza had affected 500 people - it would be an 80% likelihood that a pandemic strain would arise within two years.”

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 21:00

Libby it takes some of us a little practice doing posts for the first time! Thanks for reposting your post.

I didn’t read the AJC article, but I don’t doubt the statement at all, except to say that I’d assume that it would happen even faster than that.. If it meant 500 worldwide, and all were overseas, yeah, but if the article meant 500 in the USA, we’d already know long before we reached the 500 number that we have a problem.

It’s scarey isn’t it?

Anything of this magnitude can be overwhelming & make you wonder if you can even do ANYthing to protect yourself and your family. We have had several threads of different sorts that discuss feelings and how to cope in a crisis.

What are your major concerns for yourself and family or friends?

Chesapeake – at 21:04

Libby, is this your other post (tread) http://tinyurl.com/ewn5h It’s still active, just slid down the ladder.

Libby in Atlanta – at 21:04

Hello and thank you kindly. I thought I had found somethig of interest, a quote or maybe a misquote from WHO. They said that H5N1 would eventually make the jump. I wanted to see what you brilliant people had to say if anything. So my question is where should I post it that it might be seen. Should I send the link and how do I use the tiny URL or do I need to ?

Chesapeake – at 21:05

(thread) some of them feel like treads

Ruth – at 21:10

Libby- what happens is once someone posts on a tread, it goes to the top of the list. If alot of people are posting on threads, yours could easily move down quickly. If no one responds, you could try to type in bump hit post and it will rise to the top again. If you have any questions, ask away, there are many people here to help.

Wonderer – at 21:12

Good to know there is someone else from Atlanta paying attention to this. From the responses of people around my area, about 40 miles north of Atlanta, you would think no one had heard about bird flu.

Bronco Bill – at 21:13

Libby in Atlanta – at 21:04 --- If you come across news articles like that, then go to the Last 50 Changes (←Click on THAT link) page of Forum threads and look for that days’ News Reports. You can post your news articles in there…

Bronco Bill – at 21:16

As different threads are updated with new posts, they move to the top of the list, thus pushing slightly older threads downward on the list. If you post something on a thread, then that thread will “float” to the top of the list. So your threads aren’t dissappearing, they’re just sinking lower on the Last 50 Changes list as other people post to different threads.

Libby in Atlanta – at 21:24

To I’m-workin’-on-it, to answer your questions my fears are pretty much the same as all of yours. Most of my family is not prepared and thats what scares me. I think bird flu 24/7 So I try not to force it down their throats. I have read this site for months and you guys and girls are the best. I have gotten lots of useful info,such as a book that was recommended that said you should have Tamiflu on hand so now I beg any doc that will listen for a script of Tamaflu. It works! I was also told by a doc at CDC that the flu they are worried about is one that has a (thumbprint) like that of the 1918 flu. He said get your flu and pnemonia shots which I will.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 21:28

Ruth said: If no one responds, you could try to type in bump hit post and it will rise to the top again

Let me translate a little for you…..you could try to type in the word “bump”, then click on “post” and your thread will rise to the top of the list again. :-)

Libby in Atlanta – at 21:33

Dear Wonderer, it took me awhile of readig this forum and I surely felt kinda not qualified to say much but I felt w/ the article i read it might be flu-wikie worthy. I live in Alphatetta/Roswell area and it seems as you say if you mention the flu people look at you funny.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 21:36

Libby in Atlanta – at 21:24 Most of us feel that we have sort of a “calling” to do this — as you’ve read for months most of us have better, more fun things to do with our time and money. So consider yourself chosen somehow to be doing what you’re doing and don’t expect others to have the same calling. If we all had it, then yeah, it would make it a lot easier, but it won’t work that way. If you’ve read the ‘reaction adjustment’ section of fluwikie you’ll know what you’re experiencing is normal, although it’s also aggrevating.

I wanted to tell you that in the past the pneumonia shots were only recommended for people 65 and older or people who were in some weakened condition who might be more susceptible to pneumonia. I just turned 50 and I DID get my shot back in July I think it was, and I’ve got to tell you that WOW did I have problems because of it!!! If you get your P shot, then get it in your less dominate arm — mine was in my right arm & I’m right handed. I didn’t have any life threatening reactions, but I DID have my arm swell up like a baseball bat & stay extremely sore from my shoulder to my wrist — bone sore — for a solid week. Even after a week there was still some swelling and the whole time my flesh on the back of my arm sort of cascaded over my elbow, making me look like my arm was melting — it was repulsive! :-)

Just be sure you discuss with your doctor what to do if something like that happens to you.

Cherokee Rose – at 21:50

Wonderer at 21:12 & Libby in Atlanta ~

I live in GA too - work in Gwinnett County and live in Hall.

I feel pretty alone and “out there” at times, but I know I’m doing the right thing by prepping. My H is in agreement, so that helps.

tjclaw1 – at 21:54

Libby,

Yes, you should use the tinyurl to post a link. Simply click on the tinyurl link at the bottom of this page, paste your link in the service and it will shorten it. Then you just paste the tinyurl link in your comment. Pretty easy once you get the hang of it.

I got the pneumonia shot last year and had no reaction whatsoever. I was 45 at the time, and they said it was recommended for those over 65, but since I had two young children in daycare, if I insisted, they would give it to me…I insisted.

Still haven’t worked up the courage to ask for Tamiflu. Has anybody asked for it and gotten it recently? I just hate the thought of taking it from someone who may really need it for a different type of flu this season. My oldest daughter got an antiviral for the flu a couple years ago and within 24 hours you wouldn’t have known she was sick. Amazing.

Wonderer – at 21:57

Cherokee Rose, I work in Gwinnett Co. too. Small world.

Cherokee Rose – at 23:09

Wonderer at 21:57

Small World Indeed :-)

Does your workplace have a preparedness plan? I am attending out “Pan Flu” training next week. Should be interesting …

Wonderer – at 23:33

I sent an email to my boss and she passed it along. Word I got back was they are working on it. Nothing in place as of yet. Here’s the scary part…I work in a school.

08 September 2006

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 12:49

Wonderer, isn’t that scary?? Especially with school already in session….I’m just guessing but it seems like it would be hard to tell children to behave ‘this’ way at the first of school, then to tell them to act ‘that’ way when a pandemic arrives. Wouldn’t it just be better to have planned ahead & done it right from the beginning? Makes you want to scream doesn’t it?

I can just see the little guys looks of confusion & the bigger guys rolling their eyes……..sigh.

cactus – at 15:54
  LOL. Except for the few kids whose folks are prepping. They will probably rat out the family.” Come to my house, my Mom`s got lots of food”.
KimTat 16:20

I’ve asked my daughter to quit telling her friends that mom is nuts, hopefully they will forget.

Libby in Atlanta – at 21:17

tjclaw1,thanks for the info on the tinyurl link. With all the help I got yesterday and today I feel more at home.Iwill be seeing my doc at Emory soon and I will certainly ask for Tamiflu. The problem is its only enough for one person so I have to keep looking for more docs including friends of my husbands. I wasn’t even thinking of getting any until I read a book “ The Bird Flu” by Grattan Woodson, MD He said it is a must,he also tells you how to use it over and over from someones urine because it comes out as whole as it went in. Worst case, but I could.

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 21:39

Libby in Atlanta - You sound like you know a lot, and are moving effectively to keep you and your loved ones safe. Take care.

Northstar – at 21:45

Libby, I think Dr. Woodson has withdrawn that recommendation about Tamiflu “recycling” — it does in fact change too much after the first use. ;-) Like you, I thought I could do it if I had to… heck, it couldn’t be much worse than Gatorade. (s)

Bronco Bill – at 21:46

Libby in Atlanta – at 21:17 --- he also tells you how to use it over and over from someones urine because it comes out as whole as it went in.

We had a huge debate about this very thing back in February or March, before the old Forum crashed. I think you’d better go back and re-read what Dr. Woodson said about Tamiflu passing as whole as it started. If that were the case, then no Tamiflu would have been left in your body to fight the flu. Be very careful…it sounds like you know a lot, as Lisa in Southern Maine says, but again, we’re all still learning a lot also…

SophiaZoeat 21:55

Libby in Atlanta…perhaps the more informed folk on the wikie could point you to information on Probenicid (sp?) Sorry, I, myself, have tremendous difficulty finding info here so I am all but useless trying to track it down for you.

BTW: There is nothing like a sense of “community” to help calm the nerves and spirit. Relax, you are amongst friends.

Libby in Atlanta – at 21:56

Must have missed that oh well on to the next Dr.

09 November 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:53

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.HaveIGoneTooFarDownTheRabbitHole
Page last modified on November 09, 2006, at 08:53 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Final Adaptation of H 5 N 1 to Humans Role of Mammalian Reservoirs 5

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Final Adaptation of H 5 N 1 to Humans Role of Mammalian Reservoirs 5

H5N1 reassorting in sourthern China

significance of polymerase

22 July 2006

anon_22 – at 10:43

previous thread here

anon_22 – at 10:44

Last post:

ANON-YYZ – at 10:15 anon_22 – at 10:09

“I think the biggest near-term risk is a new reassortant from south China. This is still ongoing, with signs of increasing virulence towards mammals. “

More details, links? I must have missed some news from China.

anon_22 – at 11:09

The evolution of H5N1 influenza viruses in ducks in southern China

“The transmission of H5N1 ‘‘bird flu’’ to humans in 1997 first established the ability of avian influenza viruses to be transmitted to humans despite their preferential binding to avian sialic acid receptors (i.e., those with a terminal 2,3Gal linkage) (14). Before 1997, there had been isolated reports of human infection with H7N7 influenza virus (usually causing conjunctivitis) (12), but there was no convincing evidence of repeated transmission of avian viruses to humans. How did avian influenza viruses come to acquire a progressively greater capacity to infect mammals? Here, we characterize a series of 21 H5N1 influenza viruses isolated from apparently healthy domestic ducks in coastal provinces and cities of southern China from 1999 through 2002. These isolates were highly lethal to chickens and demonstrated the progressive acquisition of pathogenicity to mice (a mammalian host). They were genomically heterogenous, having acquired multiple gene segments and deletions in their nonstructural (NS) and neuraminidase (NA) genes. We propose a hypothetical mechanism to explain the selection of H5N1 viruses with increasing pathogenicity to mice.”

“Our results demonstrate that while circulating in domestic ducks, H5N1 viruses gradually acquired the characteristics that make them lethal in mice. One possible explanation for this finding is the transmission of duck H5N1 viruses to humans, the selective evolution of the viruses in humans, and their subsequent transmission back to ducks.”

“An alternative possibility is involvement of the pig (the postulated intermediate host) in selection. In the region of China where the H5N1 viruses characterized in this study were isolated, pigs and ducks are housed in close proximity, especially in farming villages, where families typically own a small number of pigs and ducks. Our working hypothesis is that H5N1 viruses have gradually acquired the ability to replicate in mammals by means of selection pressure created by possible transmission between pigs and ducks. To date, there are no reports of the isolation of H5N1 viruses from pigs, although pigs have been experimentally infected with H5N1 viruses (33). We have recently obtained preliminary virological and serological evidence of H5N1 virus infection of pigs in Fujian province.”

H5N1 reassortants 1999 to 2002

H5N1 reassortants show increasing virulence in mice

anon_22 – at 11:13

In the table for virulence in mice, the column to look at is the ‘pathotype’, which shows the trend in increasing virulence.

anon_22 – at 11:30

Another study offers a different but equally disturbing insight.

Are Ducks Contributing to the Endemicity of Highly Pathogenic H5N1 Influenza Virus in Asia?

“In the past, most avian influenza viruses were found to preferentially replicate in the gastrointestinal tract of wild ducks, to be excreted at high levels in the feces, and to be transmitted primarily via the oral-fecal route (15). However, in the current study, virus was excreted at high levels in the trachea (upper respiratory tract), rather than in the cloaca. We observed similar results in experimentally inoculated ducks and ducks infected by contact with birds inoculated with H5N1 viruses isolated in late 2002 from Hong Kong (24). Analysis of the combined data from our studies shows that there is a significant difference in levels of tracheal virus shedding and cloacal virus shedding in ducks, particularly in those infected by recent H5N1 viruses (post-2002). Although route of inoculation may affect the viral shedding pattern or organ tropism in an infected host, the same observation was made among inoculated ducks and ducks infected by contact, confirming that this was not an experimental artifact. Additionally, similar results were observed among Pekin ducks exposed to nine different H5N1 virus isolates from 2003–2004 (see Table S2 in the supplemental material). This is in contrast to previous studies, which reported that experimental infection via the natural route in domestic ducks (Pekin and Sheldrake ducks) with H5N1 viruses isolated in Hong Kong in 1997 and from the coastal province of southern China in 1999 to 2002 resulted in similar titers of virus shedding in the trachea and in the cloaca (4, 22).

Thus, the increased level of tracheal virus shedding is a particularity of the recent viruses emerging in Asia, from late 2002 onwards, and so far has been observed in both a wild and a domestic duck species. These results indicate that the digestive tract may no longer be the main site of replication in ducks infected by recent H5N1 viruses, and this will most likely influence the natural history of the virus. Indeed, the main path of transmission may have shifted from an oral-fecal route to a more oral-oral route or even an airborne route—or a combination of all of these. This putative change in transmission route could affect the epidemiology of H5N1 viruses and may result in an increase in transmissibility. If this is in fact the case, the implications for H5N1 surveillance and control are important.

anon_22 – at 11:34

To summarize, we are seeing:

1) frequent reassortment creating new strains

2) these new strains show increasing virulence in mammals

3) possible shift towards airborne transmission

The Sarge – at 12:56

anon_22

Disturbing indeed. The shift of replication site suggests to me a change in the HA cleavage site, a change in the HA bidning domain, or both. Expert comments are welcome.

“They were genomically heterogenous, having acquired multiple gene segments and deletions in their nonstructural (NS) and neuraminidase (NA) genes.”

“One possible explanation for this finding is the transmission of duck H5N1 viruses to humans, the selective evolution of the viruses in humans, and their subsequent transmission back to ducks.”

That one is just sitting dead in the water waiting for a broadside from Niman. Let the games begin…

ANON-YYZ – at 13:51

Airborne between ducks.

Once that is achieved, would H5N1 have learned something that will help it to change to airborne between humans?

anon_22 – at 14:56

ANON-YYZ – at 13:51 “Airborne between ducks.

Once that is achieved, would H5N1 have learned something that will help it to change to airborne between humans?”

First of all, it will definitely increase the chance of b2h transmission.

Secondly, my guess is whether it will enhance airborne h2h will probably depend on what the difference in receptor binding is between respiratory and GI receptors in birds, and whether changes enhancing binding to avian respiratory tract receptors will enhance binding to human respiratory tract receptors.

23 July 2006

beehiver – at 14:01

There’s a March 2006 article that’s been mentioned several times in other threads. I was able to obtain a copy of the full text and will attempt to briefly review the basic results of the study. Title: “The polymerase complex genes contribute to the high virulence of the human H5N1 influenza virus isolate A/Vietnam/1203/04.” The results were rather shocking, at least to me, regarding the large influence of the polymerase complex genes on lethality (PB1, PB2, PA).

Background Information

The research team used two H5N1 isolates: (human) A/Vietnam/1203/04, and (avian) A/Chicken/Vietnam/C58/04. Both are of the Z genotype, both are from Vietnam 2004, and both contain the hemagglutinin multibasic amino acid cleavage sequence PQRERRRKKR|G. Both sequences are lethal to chickens. The human strain is lethal to ferrets and mice, whereas the chicken strain is not lethal to those animals. The experiments used reverse genetic procedures to replace various segments of one isolate into the other isolate, and tested ferrets and mice for illness and lethality. The study also checked other results, but the material is too extensive for this brief review.

Results

It is necessary to read the entire article to get the full impact of the study. The team also assessed culture plaque sizes of the various reassortments that were tested. They cited limitations due to the fact that they could only use a certain number of animals with each test, as the biosafety lab had limited space.

Other brief conclusions quoted from the article

Commonground – at 14:13

What does this mean? Is it saying that it can spread without a change in the receptor binding? Laymens terms please. Thanks in advance.

“HA residues outside the cleavage site do not have a critical impact on tropism. Thus, VN1203 (H5N1) influenza’s systemic spread and neurotropism are not the result of changes in receptor binding…Inefficient binding and cell entry of an avian H5N1 virus in a mammalian host can be compensated by intracellular cleavage of the HA and by efficient replication/transcription of the viral genome by PB1 or PB2. Thus, multibasic amino acids in the cleavage site of the HA are necessary but not sufficient for high lethality in mammalian species.” (Please see full article for the authors’ reasoning that supports these conclusions).”

beehiver – at 14:39

Commonground at 14:13,

I’m not sure what you mean by “spread” - did you mean spread of the virus within the body, or spread from one host to another?

The authors of the article in this instance, seem to be addressing the issues the cell tropism (what types of cells are vulnerable), and transmission. They stated, “contributions of receptor-binding properties to cell tropism and virus transmission are not known. Our finding that recombinant human virus containing the chicken HA retained its lethality demonstrates that HA residues outside the cleavage site do not have a critical impact on tropism…H5N1 viruses whose HA is selective for alpha-2,3-linked SA can spread efficiently after experimental infection.”

The study did look at pathological effects on the various tissues, including lungs, liver, brain, spleen, and neurons. They did not experimentally assess transmission from one host to another. However, they did look at plaque size of the virus cultures, which relates to replication efficiency of the virus. The largest pattern showed large plaque size correlated with the reassorted viruses that caused 100% lethality, which would imply efficient replication.

My take on this article would thus lead to answering your question with a qualified “yes”. The evidence from it associates higher virus replication capability with the three human isolate polymerase genes, than those from the chicken isolate.

anon_22 – at 12:35

beehiver,

Thanks for that study. Yes, this is a very important point. Interestingly and disturbingly, the findings mirror those from the polymerase genes of the 1918 virus. Characterization of the 1918 influenza virus polymerase genes, Taubenberger et al.

“A total of ten amino acid changes in the polymerase proteins consistently differentiate the 1918 and subsequent human influenza virus sequences from avian virus sequences. Notably, a number of the same changes have been found in recently circulating, highly pathogenic H5N1 viruses that have caused illness and death in humans and are feared to be the precursors of a new influenza pandemic. The sequence changes identified here may be important in the adaptation of influenza viruses to humans.”

anon_22 – at 12:52

The 5 PB2 changes, for example, are almost completely preserved in human sequences, but “Only a small number of avian influenza isolates show any of these five changes, and it is intriguing that almost all of these isolates are from HPAI H5N1 or H7N7 viruses, or from the H9N2 lineage that infected a small number of humans in China in the late 1990s (ref. 29).”

For example, “Only 5 out of 282 available avian PB2 sequences have a Ser residue at position 199, four of these being 1997 H5N1 isolates from Hong Kong.”

Even more interesting is E627K: “This residue has been implicated in host adaptation, and has previously been shown to be crucial for high pathogenicity in mice infected with the 1997 H5N1 virus. Of the avian isolates, 19 out of 345 have a Lys residue at position 627, 18 of which are HPAI H5N1 or H7N7 avian influenza viruses. Sixteen of these were recently characterized H5N1 isolates from a die-off of wild waterfowl around Qinghai Lake in western China in 2005.”

“In human H5N1 isolates, 11 out of 37 have the E627K change: A/Hong Kong/483/1997 and A/Hong Kong/485/1997, four out of six isolates from Vietnam in 2004, and two out of three isolates from Thailand in 2004. The E627K mutation was seen in six out of seven H5N1 isolates from Thai tigers in 2004, and was also present in the H7N7 virus responsible for the single human fatality during the HPAI H7N7 outbreak in the Netherlands in 2003. It was not noted in the contemporaneous chicken isolates.”

26 July 2006

anonymous – at 04:40

A letter (copy attached) published in the August issue of Emerging Infectious Diseases reports the finding of H5N1 HPAI viruses in cats in Iraq. The letter concludes that ¡®death in cats, spatially and temporally associated with unusual deaths in poultry, especially when the cats show positive results of a rapid antigen detection test for influenza A, should be considered to indicate a presumptive diagnosis of HPAI, and appropriate response should ensue.¡¯ The report prompted the attached article in the latest issue of Nature ¡ª raising the possibility of, in some circumstances, using cats as ‘sentinels’ for these viruses.

Nature, Tuesday 25 July 2006 http://www.nature.com/news/2006/060724/full/060724-4.html Published online: 25 July 2006; doi:10.1038/news060724–4

More cats found with bird flu Researchers suggest feline ‘sentinels’ could identify dangerous outbreaks By: Declan Butler

Domestic cats may be widely susceptible to infection with the avian flu H5N1 virus, according to scientists who this week reported the virus in two dead cats in northern Iraq. The latest reports, following recent cat cases in Austria, Germany, Thailand and Indonesia, reinforce the hypothesis that cats may play a role in the spread of the virus, although none of the human victims thus far is thought to have caught the virus from a cat. The findings also suggest that cats might help provide an early-warning system for avian flu by acting as ‘sentinels’, say the scientists, who work at a US Naval Medical Research Unit in Cairo, Egypt. Many remote areas lack the veterinary infrastructure to test quickly for H5N1. So as a proxy, they argue, H5N1 should be immediately suspected and guarded against whenever unusual bird and cat die-offs happen together. Bird flu continues to hit Asia. Thailand has just seen a resurgence in chicken cases this week, after being apparently free of the virus for a year. Cat curiosity H5N1 was first reported in domestic cats in Thailand in 2004, and a later survey showed that some Thai cats carry antibodies to the virus. Further lab work showed that cats can carry the virus in their guts and faeces, and so could contaminate the environment to spread the virus. “In nature we saw exactly what they saw in the lab,” says Samuel Yingst, the lead author of the new work, speaking from Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. The researchers tested the cats out of curiosity during a two-week field trip last February near Erbil City, in Kurdish northern Iraq, after hearing anecdotal reports of cat deaths associated with H5N1 outbreaks in Turkey and Iraq the month before. Their findings are published in the August issue of Emerging Infectious Diseases. “It’s conceivable that cats could spread the virus,” says Yingst, although he suspects that they may be ‘dead-end’ hosts that die after receiving the disease without passing it on. Baffling virus Dick Thompson, a spokesman for the World Health Organization (WHO), says the latest paper does not change the WHO’s current position: “there is no present evidence that domestic cats play a role in the transmission cycle of H5N1 viruses. To date, no human case has been linked to exposure to a diseased cat.” That said, some cases of H5N1 continue to baffle scientists. There have been reports of cat die-offs in Indonesia in areas where no bird outbreaks have been reported, for example. And one cat virus has been shown to share gene sequences with human cases; gene sequences that have not been reported in poultry samples. Some human cases from Java “have no obvious avian counterparts”, concluded a dozen international experts in animal and human health at the Avian Influenza Expert Consultation meeting in Jakarta from 20¨C23 June. They said there is an “urgent need” to compare human, cat and bird sequences, but that such efforts are being hindered by a lack of data. On the alert In the meantime, the study could help spark an idea for early-alert systems. “Where cats show respiratory infections in areas where avian flu is endemic, H5N1 will probably be one of the causes,” says Magdi Saad, a co-author on the work. Cats could therefore serve “as sentinels in areas which don’t have access to good diagnostics”, adds Yingst. “I’d completely agree that cats can serve as sentinels, they seem very susceptible,” says Albert Osterhaus, whose team at Erasmus University in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, has shown that experimentally infected cats can transmit the virus. Other carnivores are also likely to fall foul of flu, he says, adding that his group is now also looking at ferrets, foxes and seals. Sentinels are important as a first alert, the experts agree, but they are no substitute for detailed investigation.

Reference: Yingst, S.L., Saad, M.D. and Felt, S.A. (2006) Emerging Infectious Diseases, Vol. 12, No. 8, available online at http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol12no08/06-0264.htm

Emerging Infectious Diseases, Vol. 12, No. 8, dated August 2006

http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol12no08/06-0264.htm Posted online ahead of print on Monday 17 July 2006

Qinghai-like H5N1 from Domestic Cats, Northern Iraq Samuel L. Yingst,* Magdi D. Saad,* and Stephen A. Felt*

To the Editor: Natural infection of several cat species with highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 viruses in Thailand (1¨C4) and experimental infection of domestic cats with similar viruses have been reported (5,6). Thus, literature describing HPAI H5N1 infection of cats is limited to descriptions of infections with a subset of clade I viruses. HPAI H5N1 viruses, highly similar to viruses isolated from Qinghai Lake in western People’s Republic of China in spring 2005, are now rapidly disseminating throughout Eurasia and Africa. To our knowledge, this is the first report of a Qinghai-like virus detected in domestic cats. This finding is noteworthy because the host range of influenza viruses is determined by the antigenic characteristics of the hemagglutinin and neuraminidase molecules; clade II viruses are antigenically distinct from clade I viruses, and Qinghai-like viruses are genetically distinct from other clade II viruses.

Personal communications in January 2006 from field veterinarians noted deaths of domestic cats that were associated with suspected (eventually confirmed) H5N1 outbreaks in eastern Turkey (2 villages) and Kurdish northern Iraq (Sarcapcarn in Sulymaniyah Governorate and Grd Jotyar in Erbil Governorate). The clinical conditions of the birds did not suggest HPAI to villagers or consulting veterinarians. In both scenarios in Iraq, results of rapid antigen detection tests with the Anigen kit (Suwon, Republic of Korea), while positive for influenza A, were negative for H5, so the outbreaks were not thought to be caused by HPAI, but concern about the unusual deaths in cats remained. Because the regions are remote and veterinary services limited, such anecdotal reports have rarely been followed up.

After H5N1 influenza was diagnosed in a person in Sarcapcarn, Kurdish northern Iraq, the government of Iraq requested a World Health Organization investigation, which was supported in part by Naval Medical Research Unit No. 3 veterinarians. While investigating the situation in Erbil Governorate, the team was informed of suspicious deaths in cats associated with the death of all 51 chickens in a household in Grd Jotyar (¡Ö10 km north of Erbil City) From February 3 to February 5, 2006, five cats reportedly died; 2 of these were available for examination on February 8. A sick goose from an adjacent household was killed and underwent necropsy with the cats. Gross pathologic changes in cats were similar to those previously reported, except that severe hemorrhagic pancreatitis was observed (5,6). Tissues from these animals and archived tissues from 1 of the 51 chickens were conveyed to Cairo for virologic examination.

An influenza A H5 virus was present in multiple organs in all species from the outbreak site in Grd Jotyar (see Table). cDNA for sequencing was amplified directly from RNA extracts from pathologic materials without virus isolation. On the basis of sequence analysis of the full HA1 gene and 219 amino acids of the HA2 gene, the viruses from the goose and 1 cat from Grd Jotyar and from the person who died from Sarcapcarn (sequence derived from PCR amplification from first-passage egg material) are >99% identical at the nucleotide and amino acid levels (GenBank nos. DQ435200¨C02). Thus, no indication of virus adaptation to cats was found. The viruses from Iraq are most closely related to currently circulating Qinghai-like viruses, but when compared with A/bar-headed goose/Qinghai/65/2005 (H5N1) (GenBank no. DQ095622), they share only 97.4% identity at the nucleic acid level with 3 amino acid substitutions of unknown significance. On the other hand, the virus from the cat is only 93.4% identical to A/tiger/Thailand/CU-T4/2004(H5N1) (GenBank no. AY972539). These results are not surprising, given that these strains are representative of different clades (8,9). Sequencing of 1,349 bp of the N gene from cat 1 and the goose (to be submitted to GenBank) show identity at the amino acid level, and that the N genes of viruses infecting the cat and goose are >99% identical to that of A/bar-headed goose/Qinghai/65/2005(H5N1). These findings support the notion that cats may be broadly susceptible to circulating H5N1 viruses and thus may play a role in reassortment, antigenic drift, and transmission.

The route of infection in these cats cannot be determined definitively. How cats behave when eating birds makes both oral and respiratory infection possible. However, the source of infection seems clear in that an identical H5N1 virus was detected in samples from a goose from the same dwelling, and an H5 virus was detected from archived samples from 1 of 51 chickens that died over the course of a few days. The potential for horizontal spread cannot be ruled out since we detected viral RNA in gut, stool, and trachea; clinical signs developed in all cats, and all died from the acute illness 2¨C4 days after the chicken deaths began; therefore, simultaneous exposure seems likely. Death in cats, spatially and temporally associated with unusual deaths in poultry, especially when the cats show positive results of a rapid antigen detection test for influenza A, should be considered to indicate a presumptive diagnosis of HPAI, and appropriate response should ensue.

Acknowledgments

We thank Elham Botrus Shabo, Saman Najeeb, Faisal Polus, Sura Jabar, Saidawan Omer Yussif, and Burhan Sulaiman for facilitation and technical assistance in sampling and performing necropsies, and Bradford Camp, Odis Kendrick, and Kosar Shaheer for communications and security.

This work was supported by funding through the Naval Medical Research Center work unit GEIS E0018.

 References 

1. Keawcharoen J, Oraveerakul K, Kuiken T, Fouchier RA, Amonsin A, Payungporn S, et al. Avian influenza H5N1 in tigers and leopards. Emerg Infect Dis. 2004;10:2189¨C91.

2. Thanawongnuwech R, Amonsin A, Tantilertcharoen R, Damrongwatanapokin S, Theamboonlers A, Payungporn S, et al. Probable tiger-to-tiger transmission of avian influenza H5N1. Emerg Infect Dis. 2005;5:699¨C701. Erratum in Emerg Infect Dis. 2005;11:976.

3. Songserm T, Amonsin A, Jam-on R, Sae-Heng N, Meemak N, Pariyothorn N, et al. Avian influenza H5N1 in naturally infected domestic cat. Emerg Infect Dis. 2006;12:681¨C3.

4. Amonsin A, Payungporn S, Theamboonlers A, Thanawongnuwech R, Suradhat S, Pariyothorn N, et al. Genetic characterization of H5N1 influenza A viruses isolated from zoo tigers in Thailand. Virology. 2006;344:480¨C91.

5. Rimmelzwaan GF, van Riel D, Baars M, Bestebroer TM, van Amerongen G, Fouchier RA, et al. Influenza A virus (H5N1) infection in cats causes systemic disease with potential novel routes of virus spread within and between hosts. Am J Pathol. 2006;168:176¨C83.

6. Kuiken T, Rimmelzwaan G, van Riel D, van Amerongen G, Baars M, Fouchier R, et al. Avian H5N1 influenza in cats. Science. 2004;306:241.

7. Spackman E, Senne DA, Myers TJ, Bulaga LL, Garber LP, Prdue ML, et al. Development of a real-time reverse transcriptase PCR assay for type A influenza virus and the avian H5 and H7 hemagglutinin subtypes. J Clin Microbiol. 2002;40:3256¨C60.

8. World Health Organization Global Influenza Program Surveillance Network. Evolution of H5N1 avian influenza viruses in Asia. Emerg Infect Dis. 2005;11:1515¨C21.

9. Chen H, Smith GJD. LI KS, Wang J, Fan XH, Rayner JM, et al. Establishment of multiple sublineages of H5N1 influenza virus in Asia: implications for pandemic control. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2006;103:2845¨C50.

Melanie – at 04:44

anonymoous,

please chose a handle so we can tell our anonymouses apart.

Andrew Jeremijenko – at 05:15

Melanie apologies. I posted the article from Declan and Emerging diseases above. It was an email sent to me by Mike Nunn.

Andrew Jeremijenko – at 05:15

Melanie I posted the article from Declan and Emerging diseases above. It was an email sent to me by Mike Nunn.

Andrew Jeremijenko – at 05:15

Melanie I posted the article from Declan and Emerging diseases above. It was an email sent to me by Mike Nunn.

anon_22 – at 09:15

Andrew,

Thank you for posting that. I was reading it earlier and wondering what is the difference between cats as hosts vs pigs?

What are possible implications from both the virological and epidemiological points of view?

Thanks again for keeping us informed.

beehiver – at 09:19

anon_22 at 12:35, thanks so much for your response and posting information from the Nature-Taubenberger-1918 polymerase article. I am picking up a full copy of that article this week for thorough review.

The authors of the March 2006 article (Salomon et al, referenced above at 14:01), also looked at the E627K change in PB2, here is their comment on that issue:

“The generation of a RG [reverse genetics] virus of VN1203 with a point mutation in PB2 changing lysine (K) at position 627 to glutamic acid (E) was not lethal when administered to mice (unpublished data). This demonstrates that K627 of VN1203 PB2 contributes to lethality.”

So yes, it appears that the E627K is a highly suspicious lethality factor, although it may be working in conjunction with other factors such as the multibasic cleavage site in HA, etc.

I will try to do some BLAST work to recheck for E627K in H5N1 isolates. This day job thing, and other responsibilities, keeps me from doing as much as I would like, wish I could do more!

Andrew, thanks so much for the additional update about cats as possible mammalian carrier.

anon_22 – at 10:36

beehiver,

“I will try to do some BLAST work to recheck for E627K in H5N1 isolates.”

I think the Taubenberger study may have that already, at least up to the point of publication. Look in the supplementary material. I don’t have time to do that today cos I’m travelling.

beehiver – at 10:38

10–4, thanks for letting us know anon-22.

02 August 2006

Andrew Jeremijenko – at 18:32

There is another cluster in Indonesia from the Karo region.

Three Indonesians in hospital, bird flu suspected

JAKARTA, Aug 2 (Reuters) - Three Indonesian children have been hospitalised with suspected bird flu in a North Sumatran district where seven members of an extended family died from the disease in May, officials said on Wednesday.

The three — two siblings aged 10 and six and their 18-month-old neighbour — were admitted to the state-run Adam Malik hospital on Tuesday after showing symptoms of bird flu, said hospital director Luhur Suroso.

“We are testing samples taken from them,” Suroso told Reuters. He declined to give further details.

Hariadi Wibisono, the health ministry’s director-general of control of animal-borne diseases, said the patients lived in Karo district in North Sumatra province where bird flu killed as many as seven people in an extended family in May.

The deaths in Karo were the biggest cluster of the disease the country has recorded and sparked fears of a global pandemic of bird flu infections in humans.

The World Health Organisation said in May that two members of the cluster, an Indonesian man and his son, might have caught the virus in a case of direct human-to-human transmission, but the virus did not spread very far if this did happen.

“They are from the same district but a different village,” Wibisono said, referring to the three new suspected cases.

Indonesia has recorded 42 deaths from the H5N1 bird flu virus, equalling Vietnam, where no one is known to have died of the disease this year.

Human cases of bird flu have been rising steadily in Indonesia since its first known outbreak in poultry in late 2003.

Worldwide, the disease has killed at least 134 people since it re-emerged in east Asia in 2003.

Indonesia has been criticised for not doing enough to stamp out H5N1, which still remains essentially an animal disease but experts fear could spark a pandemic if it mutates into a form that can pass easily among people.

The government has so far shied away from mass culling of poultry, citing lack of funds and impracticality in a country with millions of backyard fowl. REUTERS

The Sarge – at 18:40

I smell something cooking here, and it isn’t Kare Ayam.

anon_22 – at 18:40

Andrew,

We were just talking about this on the CDC thread, about the re-emergence of the virus in Karo.

As I understand it, no culling was done at the time of the outbreak. That being the case, we can infer that the origin source is still there.

But can we also infer that there is the much more serious risk of the strain that had passed through patients of that original cluster having then re-infected poultry (or even pigs), so that we have a B-H-H-H-B-H-H situation?

Can you comment on that please? Thank you.

Tom DVM – at 19:23

annon 22. I just jumped in here and haven’t read all the threads but reading your post, I think a case could be made for Monotreme’s third wave…in other words this may not be BHHHBHH as you so intelligently have surmised but the source of the reinfection would be an entrenched mutation in a tertiary mammal (mice, rats etc. take your choice).

Tom DVM – at 19:25

It would most likely be completely asymptomatic in the tertiary host so that we would not observe abnormal patterns of sudden death.

anon_22 – at 19:33

Tom,

Well, Monotreme’s hypothesis is sound, as I have said already. But this current concern of mine is more of a epidemiological investigation. That is, what is the relationship between the current (suspected) clusters and the biggest cluster so far, which only happened not so long ago and not so far away. (I’m still looking up maps trying to find the distance between Kubu Sembelang, the village of the big cluster, and the current village Sumbul.

I want to know ASAP if there is a chance that this is the same virus that had infected that family, either a) from the same source, or worse, b) from birds that had acquired that virus from the family of 8 patients.

ANON-YYZ – at 19:35

anon_22 – at 19:33

19 chicken died near the new cluster (I think confirmed bird flu, have to double check)

Tom DVM – at 19:43

annon 22. I completely agree except for…”b) from birds that had acquired that virus from the family of 8 patients.”

It could very easily be a hidden mammalian carrier (although it could also be birds). It would most likely have to be something new that has not existed in China, Vietnam or Thailand…that’s where the mammal may fit into it.

…are their small mammals in Indonesia that would not be in those other countries?

Tom DVM – at 19:44

Sequencing should answer the first part of the question, no matter how closely the two clusters live.

ANON-YYZ – at 19:54

Tom DVM – at 19:43

Don’t know if this will work for you:

Mammals in Indonesia:

http://tinyurl.com/pudy8

Mammals in China:

http://tinyurl.com/mktas

anon_22 – at 19:56

Tom,

I agree.

But I am looking for the link between the clusters as well.

Maybe I should start a different thread for clarity.

:-)

Tom DVM – at 20:15

Anon-YYZ Thanks.

anon_22 – at 20:55

I just posted this new thread for the current cluster in karo to discuss whether this might be a continuation of the cluster in May.

This is important. Please check it out and tell me what you guys think.

09 November 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:51

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.FinalAdaptationOfH5N1ToHumansRoleOfMammalianReservoirs5
Page last modified on November 09, 2006, at 08:51 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Tamiflu False Negatives

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Tamiflu False Negatives

08 September 2006

Okieman – at 08:58

Following are two posts made by Michelle and I in the Indonesia Outbreak thread. I would like to start this thread as a discussion of the ramifications of a Tamiflu blanket and the false negatives that may result.

Michelle in OK – at 22:51 COMMENT: I’ve been looking over the cases to fill in gaps in our understanding, and the patients Hendra (21) and Gilang (9) have always concerned me. We have no information on them except that they are from Garut. We aren’t even sure of their gender. They are the only patients which have tested positive but have not yet been listed on the WHO website.

The thing that bothers me is this. Cikelet is in Garut. If you have cases testing positive 1 1/2 weeks after the Tamiflu blanket, that is of concern.

I searched flutrackers.com and found an article posted by AlaskaDenise. Link to article Here are some excerpts:

“In Garut, the virus first appeared in the villages of Cikelet and Cigadog, but it has since spread to other villages. The number of suspected bird flu victims continues to rise each day…

Health Ministry officials who hope to check the spread of the virus in the area are monitoring seven villages in Garut. Officials have also gone to each village looking for people who show signs of infection and sending them to the nearest hospital. Hendra, 21, and Gilang, 9, were the latest victims to test positive for the bird flu virus. They received medical treatment at Dr. Slamet Hospital in Garut. Four others are under observation in their homes by Health Ministry teams. If their conditions worsen, the teams will bring them to the hospital.”

We have 4 others from Cikelet who were hospitalized after 8/25/06, the date of this article. I think it is possible that Hendra and Gilang are also from Cikelet.

Okieman – at 23:08 Here is an article from Bloomberg addresses the issue of tamiflu affecting test results. Very good article and worth reading. Kudos to Jason Gale for good reporting.

Michelle, this article along with the information in your 22:51 post makes a host of questions arise.

Bird Flu Patients Need Testing Before Starting Drugs (Update2)

By Jason Gale

Aug. 22 (Bloomberg) — Bird flu cases may go undetected in patients who took antiviral drugs days before being tested because treating the virus may mask infection, said virologist Menno de Jong, whose team observed 18 cases in Vietnam. Specimens should be collected from suspected cases before or soon after medicines such as oseltamivir are administered, said de Jong, head of virology at an Oxford University clinical research unit in Ho Chi Minh City. Nasal and throat swabs from Vietnamese patients who responded well to oseltamivir, marketed by Roche Holding AG as Tamiflu, were unable to detect the virus 48-to-72 hours after beginning treatment, he said. If a patient is on oseltamivir for three days before the first swab is taken for diagnostic testing, it’s possible the result will be negative, but the patient could be infected’‘ with the H5N1 strain of avian influenza, de Jong said in a telephone interview yesterday. A delayed or incorrect diagnosis is a concern for disease trackers as they monitor human cases for signs H5N1 is becoming contagious to people, not just birds. A mutated virus spreading easily from human to human might spark a pandemic that could kill millions of people. Since 2003, H5N1 is known to have infected 240 people in 10 countries, killing 141 of them, the World Health Organization said yesterday. Almost all human H5N1 cases have been linked to close contact with sick or dead birds, such as children playing with them or adults butchering them or plucking feathers, according to the Geneva-based agency.

Early Detection

Early detection and isolation of suspected cases are important to limit the spread of the virus should it begin to spread easily between people, the WHO said last year in a recommendation of strategic actions to fight a pandemic. The most recent H5N1 cases occurred this month in a remote village in the Garut district of Indonesia’s West Java province. Indonesia’s Ministry of Health confirmed H5N1 in three villagers, two of whom died, prompting officials to investigate whether the virus had spread directly between the people. No evidence of human-to-human transmission has been found, Health Minister Siti Fadilah Supari told reporters in the capital, Jakarta, today. Authorities distributed Tamiflu to about 2,100 villagers in Garut, the Jakarta Post reported today, citing Fatimah Resmiati, a spokeswoman from the ministry’s West Java environmental health office. Indonesia, the world’s fourth-most-populous country, accounts for a third of the 141 known H5N1 fatalities since 2003.

<snip>

http://tinyurl.com/olhvm

Goju – at 09:17

I asked Nabarro about that and several other med people at the conference.

They all agreed that it could be masking infections - they just dont know Nabarro said he was going to indo next week to try to figure out what was up. The reporting is a mess. Noone knows whats really going on now. It seems things may have changed there.

anonymous – at 09:22

What does that mean - “it seems things might have changed there?”

anon_22 – at 10:11

“it seems things might have changed there?”

Well, the cluster size at least in Cikelet is far bigger than anything we have seen. Many of those cases are more likely to be b2h than h2h. In case you are relieved, this may not be a good thing.

For several years, increasing numbers of people have been exposed to this virus. In millions and millions. And yet the incidence of human infections are miniscule compared to the exposure. In fact, as Monotreme pointed out a while back, it seemed that H5N1 was finding it (relatively) easier to go h2h than b2h. This led some people to suggest a pandemic was not likely because it appears that the species barrier is quite high.

Now, if the incidence of b2h is indeed increasing, then the virus is in the beginning stages of achieving a major milestone, which bodes ill for the world.

Tom DVM – at 11:02

anon 22. I agree completely. Hear is how I now look at it. One virus produces millions or billions of mutations per single virus infection in an individual organism and H5N1 now has the absolutely unique ability to have its choice of a plethora of potential hosts.

Therefore, it is producing that pandemic virus repeatedly…all the time…with infinite mutations there is also an infinite chance that this is happening…

…what is missing is a confluence of events…human pandemic virus in birds is a dead end…human pandemic virus in a non-mobile person with few contacts goes relatively no where.

There is a one hundred percent chance after Q. Lake that it is only a matter of time until a confluence events puts all the factors together (like that doctor with SARS in the elevator in Hong Kong) and it is around the world in one day…or at least it will have seeded the world in one day.

Tom DVM – at 11:03

By the way…I believe that its target all along was assimilation and harmony with mammals are therefore its target species was humans…that can be the only explantion given the data and Monotreme’s excellent derivations.

ANON-YYZ – at 21:11

anon_22 – at 10:11

How do we explain Cikilet? The WHO said it’s not easier B2H. It may now be suppressed by Tamiflu blanket.

“We may never know”.

09 November 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:50

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Bird Guanos LED Lighting Project

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Bird Guanos LED Lighting Project

07 September 2006

BirdGuanoat 14:24

Thought I would share a little emergency LED Lighting project I’m working on.

No pictures yet, but I’ll get around to it this weekend if I can figure out how to embed pix in wiki text.

Basically here is the project:

Standard automotive light bulb fixture, 1156 parking light socket LED replacement 1156 bulb from Ebay/ choice of colors. White/Red(preserves night vision), or Amber Misc wire 12 volt switch Connectors to my rig-runner power splitter

The idea is to take some cheap over-the-counter parts from an automotive parts store, combine it with the LED 1156 replacement bulb off of e-bay and come out on the other end with a cheap and BRIGHT 12 volt light source that won’t kill your battery in short order.

So far I’ve been VERY happy with the results.

I’m currently working on a double-throw switch, so I can switch from white light to RED light for night ops.

I’ll outline sources in the followup post, and if I can figure out how to link pictures, I’ll make it graphical.

Hillbilly Bill – at 14:27

BirdGuano – at 14:24

Are the bulbs available anywhere besides Ebay?

BirdGuanoat 14:35

Sources and pictures:

1156 automotive lighting socket: about $2.50 each

http://autolumination.com/1156_1157.htm

near the bottom

1156 LED replacement bulb: <$10 each

I got mine off of e-bay, but here is a link that shows the diffrent types of bulbs available:

http://autolumination.com/1156_1157.htm

Some of the arrays without sockets are my next project. A SHEET of light for room illumination.

BirdGuanoat 14:38

You can google LED automotive bulb replacement and find a lot of sources.

There are 3 plants in China that make all of them.

BirdGuanoat 14:55

And I have to tell you…

These things put out a LOT of light for the amperage penalty at 12 volts.

You can illuminate an entire room with a good working light for less than 1/2 an amp of power, and about 3 of the 1156 LED bulbs wired in parallel.

I started this project for my communications room, so I could use the existing 12 volt tap and battery bank for lighting.

I can go for weeks with light, without having to worry about the battery bank.

urdar-Norge – at 15:51

www.dotlight.de and http://www.led1.de/shop/

I dont have anything more to do with this companys exept that I have been happy to buy bulk of LEDs from them. Germans are very progressive on new tech /energy savings :)

The ordinary bulb sockets ledlamps of differnet kinds are easy to build with, but.. They use more energy than actualy needed (but not much..). The best is to make the arrays your self. Easy calkulator to decide the resistor values: http://led.linear1.org/1led.wiz

Eccles – at 17:23

Great idea to get efficient lighting into the hands of the general community. If you could find a good easy to use source for the lamps, then it would be a really valuable Wikie page to post the whole thing, plus a wiring sketch.

Let me know if you need some help.

BirdGuanoat 17:45

Yep, I’m not that into do-it-yourself LED projects to build the actual lamps one-by-one.

No time for that, when the Chinese sources make them so cheap.

I’ll gather my thoughts into a coherent form and do some photos and wiring diagrams with parts sources.

Probably next week as my time is booked for the rest of this week.

It’s actually a pretty easy project, and you could even do it without any soldering if necessary.

I’m currently working on different mounting methods for task lighting arrays.

I also need to confirm the power draw under use.

Pfwag – at 19:18

A 12VDC input CFL will put out far more light per W than LEDs The light output of LEDs are directional and CFLs are basically not. This is important if you want to light a whole room. On an equal lighting basis it would take far more LEDs and power to equal the light output of a CFL. I have two 12VDC CFLs sitting on my desk that I was planning on testing tomorrow. I’ll post the data if anybody is interested.

Desert Dan – at 19:33

BirdGuano

Your plan sounds good.

Do you have any ideas on where to get a small 12 volt battery charger I could use for my car battery? I think I have seen these for RV’s etc.

I have been thinking that would be a good way to keep the car battery charged up.

You could buy a cuople of car batteriess and with a solar panel you could have lots of lights an night??

BirdGuanoat 22:48

You want deep cycle batteries not car batteries if you plan on a strong discharge cycle. Otherwise you kill the battery in short order.

Are you talking about the 110vac to 12vdc chargers ??

They make charge/maintainers specifically for car batteries.

I’d google car battery maintainer for some hits.

Re: LED vs CFL

I’m using the led’s for ambient lighting and task lighting for my communications gear.

The CFL’s suck too much power for my limited needs.

They also destroy night vision.

You would be surprised at the light output of some of the new LED arrays, vs the power consumed.

YMMV

I went with LED arrays for my needs after careful consideration.

Bronco Bill – at 23:02

Pfwag – at 19:18 --- I agree with you about whole-room lighting, as I’ve replaced nearly all my incandescants with CFLs. But on the other hand, if one is trying to keep light to a minimum so outsiders don’t see it through drapes/windows, this might be the way to go. Small, bright directional lighting. And LEDs do use less power than CFLs… ;-)

Bronco Bill – at 23:04

And, yes sir…I’d like to know what you find out about the 12v CFLs…battery drain, amount of light for an average room, etc.

08 September 2006

Bird Guano – at 01:37

I have current drain stats for 12volt CFL’s from manufacturer data sheets.

I just need to get more information on lumen output, etc. before I publish anything

The LED arrays are running about 6:1 on power savings over CFL’s at 12 volts.

Not sure how to do a fair lumen comparison, as they are used for two very different types of light.

pfwag – at 03:19

You can’t directly compare lumens of LEDs and CFLs thus you also can not directly compare power consumption. One is directional and the other is omni-directional.

If you want or can use focused light LEDs are the way to go. If you need to illuminate a large area CFLs will do it better and use less power than a bunch of LEDs trying to do the same thing. I’ve got a bunch of references on my work computer that I’ll post tomorrow (which is actually today).

lugon – at 04:59

I wonder if folks over at http://www.worldchanging.org (and allies) will look into this project and report about it - comments might bring help!

This would also let us link the “ecotech community” and the “fluwikie community” to the advantage of both.

So someone please contact them!

lugon – at 05:06

Someone who is not BirdGuano might want to follow this thread and act as a “learner-teacher”, perhaps helping edit the wikipage, or trying to create a http://www.instructables.com set of pictures. There are a few ways to help!

Kim – at 08:47

BirdGuano, maybe it’s just me, but using red light to read by at night is nearly impossible. It gives me a headache and printed words are really hard to see. Amber light doesn’t have this effect. So try both colors and see which works best for you, since either will preserve your night vision.

Kim – at 09:09

BTW, if they’re available, you might try green light for nighttime applications. I believe that green is really easier on the eyes even than amber, and somewhat brighter.

Dennis in Colorado – at 09:31

If you are going to compare different light sources, please remember to use the appropriate units and keep the units consistent across all comparisons:

candela = luminous intensity (approximately the same as “candle power”)
luminance = candela/square meter
lumen = flux of light, calculated as candela x angle of radiance (in solid radians)
lux = lumens/square meter

Pfwag – at 15:22

Unfortunately I have to do job related work today and can’t test the 12VDC CFL bulbs but here’s some info from my lighting file. I tiny-URLed some of the bigger links but I apoligize in advance for all the others.

LIGHTING Efficacy and efficiency A light can waste power by emitting too much light outside of the visible spectrum. Only visible light is useful for illumination, and some wavelengths are perceived as brighter than others. Taking this into account, luminous efficacy is a ratio of the useful power emitted to the total power and is measured in lumens per watt (lm/W). The maximum efficacy possible is 683 lm/W. Luminous efficiency is luminous efficacy divided by this maximum and so is expressed as a number between 0 and 1 or as a percentage[1]. However, the term luminous efficiency is often used for both quantities.

Another, related measure, the overall luminous efficiency, instead divides by the total power input. This takes into account more ways that energy might be wasted and so is never greater than luminous efficiency.

Category Type Efficiency lm/W Reference candle 0.04% 0.3 Incandescent

  40 W tungsten incandescent	1.9%	        12.6 
  60 W tungsten incandescent	2.1%	        14.5 
  100 W tungsten incandescent	2.6%	        17.5 
  glass halogen	                2.3%	        16
  quartz halogen	        3.5%	        24
  tungsten-halogen	      2.6%−3.6%	        18–25 
  high-temperature incandescent	5.14%	        35

Fluorescent

  13 W twin-tube fluorescent	8.2%	        56.3 
  compact fluorescent	      6.6%−8.8%	        45–60 

Light-emitting diode

  white LED (low power)	      2.2%−6.2%	        15–42 
  white LED (high power       3.8%−8.8%	        26–60 
  white LED (prototypes)      8.8%−14.7%	60–100 

Arc lamp

  xenon arc lamp              4.4%−22%	        30–150 
  mercury-xenon arc lamp       7.3%−8%	        50–55 

Ideal radiators

  black-body radiator at 4000 K    7%	        47.5
  black-body radiator at 7000 K	  14%	        957
  ideal white light source	  36%	        242.5 
  monochromatic 556 nm source	 100%	        680 6

Thus a typical 100 watt bulb for 120 volt systems, with a rated light output of 1750 lumens, has an efficacy of 17.5 lumens per watt, compared to an “ideal” of 242.5 lumens per watt for one type of white light. Unfortunately, tungsten filaments radiate mostly infrared radiation while remaining a solid. Donald L. Klipstein explains it this way: “An ideal thermal radiator produces visible light most efficiently at temperatures around 6300 degrees Celsius (6600 kelvins or 11,500 degrees Fahrenheit). Even at this high temperature, a lot of the radiation is either infrared or ultraviolet, and the theoretical luminous efficiency is 95 lumens per watt.” No known material can be used as filament at this ideal temperature; this is hotter than the sun’s surface.

LINKS

http://candlepowerforums.com/

Don Klipstein’s Lighting Info Site! http://members.misty.com/don/index.html

http://www.otherpower.com/otherpower_lighting.html

http://www.efficientlighting.net/

NLPIP – Lighting Research Center http://www.lrc.rpi.edu/programs/nlpip/index.asp

Luminance Converter http://www.onlineconversion.com/illuminance.htm

National Lighting Product Information – Screwbase CFL Products http://tinyurl.com/k8rjh

Compact Fluorescent Light Bulb Investment Analysis Worksheet http://www.homepower.com/files/kerrcflbulbs.xls

LEDs & LED Lights http://www.enluxled.com/ http://www.lumiled.com/led-lamps.htm http://members.misty.com/don/led.html http://lighting.sandia.gov/Xlightingnewsarchive.htm http://members.misty.com/don/ledx.html http://ledmuseum.home.att.net/ (the definitive source for LED info)

Full Spectrum Lights http://www.lightforhealth.com/ http://www.fullspectrumsolutions.com/ http://www.soluxtli.com/ http://www.aerolights.com/energysaving.asp

Dimming Fluorescent http://www.lutron.com/ballast/whylutron.asp http://tinyurl.com/pcuss

12VDC Fluorescent lights and LED lights http://www.backwoodssolar.com/Catalogpages2/lights2.htm

12V ballasts http://tinyurl.com/qc4cz

12VDC Fluorescent lights http://www.thinlite.com/products.htm

Flashlights http://www.candlepowerforums.com/vb/ http://tinyurl.com/hdual http://tinyurl.com/zvwbv http://ledmuseum.home.att.net/ledleft.htm http://www.elektrolumens.com/ (VERY BRIGHT flashlights!) http://www.equippedtosurvive.com/led_lights.htm http://www.flashlightmuseum.com/ http://www.flashlightreviews.com/index1.html http://www.shake-flashlights.com/

Lanterns http://tinyurl.com/e67q6

Bulbs http://freespace.virgin.net/tom.baldwin/bulbguide.html http://www.coffj.com/veg1/lamp.htm http://www.pti-nj.com/obb_lamps.html

Bird Guano – at 15:58

Look, I don’t want to turn this into a religious war of CFL vs LED.

I just thought it was an interesting project for ME and my specific application.

I have NO desire in a disaster to have room filling light for several reasons.

What I did was cheap and met my needs for the requirement.

This is turning into “engineers gone wild” which was NOT my intention when I posted the information.

Forget the whole thing.

Carry on.

Centella – at 16:09

Sorry if this has been posted already. I am at lunch so I do not have alot of time:

http://www.superbrightleds.com/carbulb-notes.htm

This company makes led replacement bulbs for cars

Centella – at 16:10

See also this page:

http://www.superbrightleds.com/1157.htm

Centella – at 16:13

On a personal note, I have not been here much lately. I have my day time job and I am now working at walmart part time (70 hour work weeks) Its all good. I get a 10 percent discount on non food items. Lots of prepping in my future

Bird Guano – at 16:17

They are all made at the same 3 factories in China.

Only the distribution channel is different.

Dennis in Colorado – at 16:33

Bird Guano – at 15:58

LEDs are an excellent low-power source of high-quality light. Please continue with your experiments and let us know what you find. My comments were directed at those who were making unscientific comments about lumens and power consumption. They were in no way meant to disparage your work or discourage your efforts.

09 November 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:50

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / North American LPH 5 N 1 Same As in Asia

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: North American LPH 5 N 1 Same As in Asia

08 September 2006

TreasureIslandGalat 10:27

I have noticed a few recent news clips out of Vietnam, Cambodia, Egypt and Indonesia all stating that investigators were locating chickens and ducks that harbored H5N1 (were positive for the virus) yet were not showing symptoms of the disease (yet).This seems contrary to much of what we were initially hearing about H5N1, that in Asia, Europe and Africa it is all HP-“high path”.

In the Americas, they are quick to point out that all the birds that have been found recently have tested positive for H5N1 but they claim it is the “low path” type, not like the asian strains, because the birds were not dead or the chickens nearby didn’t die. How can they say this righ toff the bat when it appears that the mortality of the birds is no longer a “given”? They announce these findings well before any sequencing can determine what strain the birds have. And then, the sequences don’t appear for review anyway… “since it is LP (as announced previously), the sequences really aren’t important to publish anyway, right?” -or so we are led to believe.

I have a theory…

The virus has strains developed now that are less pathogenic in different bird species, but it is the same virus. -Just as we see different CFR rates in humans throughout the world based on the strain caught. I believe the America’s version is just a different strain of the same virus.

Maybe the Americas’ clade gave birth to the Asian clade back in the 80′s and it has since mutated to somethign very different. Maybe the other way around. Afterall, hasn’t H5N1 been around in some documented form for over 100 years?

anon_22 – at 11:01

When they say a virus is Highly Pathogenic, it doesn’t mean that it has to be pathogenic to the bird from which it was isolated. It only means that it shows the characteristic molecular features, ie a series of basic amino acids in the cleavage site of the HA protein, which allows it to cause severe systemic disease in birds that are susceptible.

Low Path H5N1 would not have this signature feature.

TreasureIslandGalat 11:08

So how can they declare HP or LP without having done sequencing?

anon_22 – at 11:12

TreasureIslandGal – at 11:08 So how can they declare HP or LP without having done sequencing?

PCR, presumably?

TreasureIslandGalat 11:31

I especially remember when the PEI birds got sick… They claimed it “had to be” LP because chickens nearby didn’t get sick. -even though the birds that did get it died quickly.

We are seeing cases overseas where even chickens in the same flocks are not showing symtoms while others die and yet others aren’t positive.

And what a shame, they weren’t able to recreate the virus for sequencing. -and the college must have been wrong in their earlier testing. *rolling eyes

Blue – at 16:17

bump

09 November 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:49

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Executive Order Seizure of Supplies II

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Executive Order Seizure of Supplies II

08 September 2006

Bronco Bill – at 00:10

Continued from here


Desert Dan – at 19:25

History Lover
Some of the transportation authority powers would come in hand during a major labor strike etc. or in a disaster where a road or bridge had to be built quickly.

In my area there is a small land slide (slip) that is blocking one lane of a hwy (2 lane each direction). It has gone unrepaired due to finger pointing about who is responsible (county , state, city etc) and going to pay for it. It looks like they wont get to it untill the rain starts again.

Anyway my point is the Army or Seebees could get the road open and useable in a day.

History Lover – at 12:27

Desert Dan - I agree with you completely. The Army could get it done if they gave them authority, but there are a lot of laws preventing federal incursion onto state and local lands. It’s the old “State vs. Nationalism” issue. We’ve had tremendous and unprecedented rainfall here in El Paso recently, and the one transportation route that was immediately brought under control was the Interstate Freeway. I have to say I was impressed with the coordination between local police and DOT. When these agencies want to cooperate with each other and work for the good of the people, they can be quite efficient.

09 November 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:47

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Lotus Water Purification System At Canadian Tire

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Lotus Water Purification System At Canadian Tire

07 September 2006

Prepping Gal – at 18:40

I saw this advertised on TV - It is a new product at Canadian Tire, well in fact its two products. There is a pitcher that purifies water of ecoli- guardia - crpsto (sp?) and mentions norwalk virus etc. Then there is another unit same idea which is a bowl for housecleaning, cleaning fruit, vegetables etc. I was shocked at the price $199. Cdn for each i.e. $400. for both units plus filters and special spray bottles. I thought the price was very high and I didn’t get the difference between boiling water (by the way you can use river, well or municipal clean water as long as it is murky). Does anyone know what the advantage would be over boiling? I assume it was 110v appliance so not much good if no electricity.

Pfwag – at 18:59

I’m not sure what “this” is but the price sounds high. FYI: most things like this advertised on TV are ripoffs.

Boiling kills all pathogens but does not remove any contaminants. Distilling, a form of boiling, also kills all pathogens and removes most-all contaminants. It is, however, very power intensive to generate a gallon of purified water.

See the H5N1 Water Filter discussions at http://www.fluwikie2.com/pmwiki.php?n=Forum.H5N1WaterFilter for better solutions.

Bronco Bill – at 19:09

Here is the same device as advertised in Sharper Image’s latest catalog. Personally, I think it’s just playing into the hands of people who may be a bit….paranoid….of municipal drinking water. It’s very work intensive, and has two very different systems, one which creates “safe” drinking water, and the other which states very clearly “Not safe for drinking”. So, let the buyer beware…

Lotus Water Purification

09 November 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:44

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Blessed Are the Cheesemakers

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Blessed Are the Cheesemakers

07 September 2006

Northstar – at 16:18

Or any dairy producers in general…

There has been discussion on other threads about how to make cheeses and etc. at home during a long SIP. This guy is a goldmine. What a cool site!

http://tinyurl.com/4ewnw

silversage – at 16:22

I’ve been to three grocery stores and can’t find Junket rennet tablets, where do I find these (US midwest)?

JV – at 16:32

silversage, I just buy them in my grocery store, but I see you can get them from amazon.com:

http://tinyurl.com/mz8lm

Bronco Bill – at 16:39

silversage – at 16:22 --- Same question was asked on this thread.

Mari – at 17:22

silversage – at 16:22 - In grocery stores in my area, with the instant puddings.

09 November 2006

Bronco Bill – at 20:43

EnoughAlready – at 20:33

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:43

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Questions for Nabarro At Tomorrows Conference

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Questions for Nabarro At Tomorrows Conference

05 September 2006

Goju – at 19:21
 I am attending a 

PANDEMIC FLU SUMMIT - NEW YORK CITY PREPARE YOUR BUSINESS FOR PANDEMIC - NOW!

It is being held at NBCTV’s studios in Midtown NYC tomorrow all day.

http://www.safeamerica.org/sp_nycsummit.html

If I get a chance i will ask Nabarro a question - what should that question be folks?

Dennis in Colorado – at 19:45

“In what specific ways have you and your family prepared at home for a pandemic?”

anon_22 – at 20:04

This looks like a really long question, but I’m putting in all the components for you to consider how to ask it :-)

Southern China, the area surrounding the city of Hong Kong, is said to be the place where most previous pandemics originated, and is still the area where new strains of HP H5N1 are forming as we speak, with progressively increasing virulence towards mammals. Given that Hong Kong is the world’s largest commercial port, handling the biggest daily volume of goods to the rest of the world including the US, what would happen to our supply chain if a pandemic strain starts circulating in southern China tomorrow and 40% of people in Hong Kong stay away from work? How much lead time do we have or how much inventory do we need before the whole of New York or the country come to a grinding halt from supply failures? Are we talking about days or weeks, and how long would that last?

Ranchgirl – at 20:10

Anon 22 - great question.

Lauralou – at 20:16

Goju- Would you be willing to report back here on what is said at the summit? I’m very interested in the session on the Media and “what it can do”. I’m sure we would all like to hear about your experience if you have time to post about it as many concerns have been raised on the forum about NYC.

Ruth – at 20:46

Here’s 3 questions. What should we be looking for as to a signal that things are out of control and it’s beginning to spread? Does it look worse than it did last year or better in terms of a possible pandemic from H5N1? Are there other viruses that you are specifically concerned about and what are they?

Monotreme – at 21:21

Goju, I couldn’t resist asking 3.

Grace RN – at 21:33

In your opinion, when do you think the next pandemic will occur?

janetn – at 21:59

Why have we seen a increase in cases in Indonesia during the last month and a half?

anon mc – at 22:20

I would vote for Monotreme’s question #3. The first 2 of his questions may get standard replies something to the effect: “When similar viruses have made the jump to humans the CFR has dropped and since H5N1 is not being transmitted H2H efficiently at the moment, it is too soon to speculate what the CFR will be in a pandemic…” and “History has shown us that flu pandemics are cyclical, so we should be prepared. It may not be H5N1, but it is fair to say that a flu pandimic will happen at some point…”

Maybe if you asked Monotreme’s question number 3 and pointed out that the CFR is currently over 50%, is 3 days worth of supplies a realistic level of preparation.

Even so I suspect you will get something like “Of course we would like to see people preparing for more than 3 days, but the idea is to at least get them in the mindset to make minimal preparations now and then refer them to government-sponsored websites which will more accurately reflect the situation as it evolves…”

Sorry, but I am losing hope that we are going to get any REAL answers from anybody anymore, Nabarro or not. I hope I am wrong.

Tom DVM – at 22:34

Okay, well then I might as well put my two cents in.

My question would be…we are well aware that healthcare systems will collapse in a pandemic. We will be on our own to treat our children if they become infected. Given the just in time delivery systems and lack of raw materials for pharmaceuticals in proximity of manufacturing plants…where am I to get supplies of antibiotics, oral electrolyte powders, anti-fever medications and prednisolone after the pandemic has begun and how am I going to get advice from healthcare professionals such as nurses, doctors, pharmacists…

…and please don’t tell me to get the drugs from my doctor or the drug store because it is readily apparent that the requirment for pharmaceuticals will be many multiples of supplies avaliable on Sept 6, 2006.

no name – at 22:43

Considering the audience of corporate executive in your questioning may get more attention and increase the possibility of the question being asked.

Maybe…How can the corporation help the individual prepare to limit the time lost on the job? Or something of that nature.

Individual concerns or rates of infection may not be as important to 250 executives.

Okieman – at 23:00

Assuming a severe pandemic were to begin in October, what actions should be taken to secure the safety of personnel working on essential systems such as electricity, water and wastewater?

anon_22 BUMP for attention – at 23:00

no name – at 22:43

Considering the audience of corporate executive in your questioning may get more attention and increase the possibility of the question being asked.

I agree. It is often just as important to use the question to address the audience as well as the speaker. Maybe even more so than the speaker, cos often we can pretty much predict what the answer might be.

:-)

anon_22 – at 23:02

Yikes! Didn’t fix the handle!

Average Concerned Mom – at 23:04

This conference is being held at a tv studio, is it to be televised?

Leo7 – at 23:31

What ever question you choose to ask please be sure to hold up a tape player so he can see it—that way he knows he’s being recorded for posterity! Tape the whole thing!

janetn – at 23:53

Why dont you invite him to stop by here and chit chat for a while. We will all be on our best behavior. Company manners and all.

06 September 2006

Bump - Bronco Bill – at 00:52
Goju – at 01:00

Keep em coming folks - i’ll print out the list and take it tomorrow. I suppose my questions will come out of what i hear. I think questions addressed for the audience to hear may be better. If i can influence biz leaders they can make things happen. The people on the podium may just get defensive and give stock answers to which I will respond and someone will have to bail me out of jail.

I’ll report back tomorrow nite.

anon mc – at 01:14

Good Luck, Goju!!!

jplanner – at 01:27

Thanks for asking us here, and going, and being willing to report back…it’s awesome!

Annoyed Max- Not mad yet – at 09:16

Tom DVM – at 22:34 Excellent question! This is why I love collective thinking. I will be sure to ask the locals at the PA summit that one next week. Although I honestly dont expect much of an answer.

Tom DVM – at 09:42

Anoyed Max-Not mad yet. Thanks /:0)

I have done a lot of thinking about things and if I am right and vaccines and antivirals turn out to be nonfactors…we then have a choice.

1)we can enter the pandemic with the advantages hard won in medicine over the last 100 yrs.

2)We can enter the pandemic with the technology of 1918.

3)We can enter the pandemic with the technology of 1830.

The demand for standard treatments is going to go off the chart in a few weeks…we are talking demand increasing by millions of doses.

If we do not have healthcare that is one thing. If we do not have antibiotics, oral electrolyte powders, anti-fever medications and prednisolone avaliable with back-up advice by phone of internet…

…we are not back to 1918…we will end up back at 1830 before it is over…and I wouldn’t want to be a regulator or a government in that situation…if you know what I mean.

Ocean2 – at 10:21

Dr. Nabarro, Is there anyone or anything like a gag order keeping in-the-know scientists from talking about the spread of avian flu among humans in Indonesia? And if not, why isn’t it being presented in the main stream media?

Now, fluwikians, please do not flame me for my question.

Annoyed Max- Not mad yet – at 10:23

Exactly! Personally I have been with this long enough thats its hopefully a non issue for me. But just in case I want someone “in charge” to have thought of this. Could you man a doctor (and some security) at the pharmacies to hand out needed meds till the supply is exhausted? What about our national stockpile of drugs that was supposedly created? When do we get them and where are they going?

anonymous – at 10:41

I’d like to know what will be his indicators to SIP for his family. When does it “become time” to do so for him?

crfullmoon – at 11:29

If it’s for the audience’s benefit (Dr. Nabarro is sure personally welcome to come to The Wiki) I’d probably have to phrase something like, “If local authorities are too concerned about the public’s reaction to tell the public to prepare for a worst-case influenza pandemic, how can employers make sure their essential workers, and, those of other regional businesses or utilities they rely on, are ready to weather a pandemic and have people able to function and re-start the economy afterwards?”

(And, they’d pick someone else’s question… ;-))

tjclaw1 – at 11:49

I like the second half of crfullmoon – at 11:29′s question:

“How can employers make sure their essential workers, and, those of other regional businesses or utilities they rely on, are ready to weather a pandemic and have people able to function and re-start the economy afterwards?”

Since this conference addresses businesses and their interests are $$$$, I think you’ll have better success referencing employee preparedness = business continuity = less economic impact/fallout from pandemic.

History Lover – at 12:55

Ocean2 - Great question.

anon_22 – at 14:33

tjclaw1 – at 11:49

Since this conference addresses businesses and their interests are $$$$, I think you’ll have better success referencing employee preparedness = business continuity = less economic impact/fallout from pandemic.

I agree.

And their bottomline, whether their business will collapse as a result of a pandemic. But they won’t know to worry about THAT unless we help them connect the dots.

Tom DVM – at 14:35

anon 22. You can bet that business knows about sites like flu wiki…it is their business to know and they don’t operate like our other fixation…governments and regulatory agencies.

anon_22 – at 15:25

Not enough Tom, not enough.

Grace RN – at 16:09

Tom DVM – at 22:34

“My question would be…we are well aware that healthcare systems will collapse in a pandemic. We will be on our own”…snip

It’s refreshing to hear someone come out and say those words. When I say it around here, people (other than those active in healthcare IN hospital settings) look at me like I have 6 eyes.

They think a 48 hour wait in the ER for an inpatient bed is horrible????

HA! Piece of cake compared to what lies ahead…..

Tom DVM – at 16:40

Grace. Thanks…but I for one know that you have been saying the same things for as long or longer than me. /:0)

They can keep the other stuff…I just want some drugs to treat and save children…thats all.

If they fall down on this one…they had better get ready to run and it won’t be me that’s chasing them!!

Edna Mode – at 20:53

Paging Goju. Come in Goju.

How’d the conference go? Or are you still hobnobbing with the big wigs? ;)

econ101 – at 22:38

broad stk mkt indexs , not dow, where down hard today……wonder if conference had anything to do with it.

Goju – at 23:24

Fantastic meeting Today

I asked many hard questions.

I had a 10 minute One on One sit down with Dr Nabarro

they are all very concerned

I have 6 pages of notes i will post in a day or so.

Stay tuned - It was GOOD - We are the most knowledgable people on the planet.

I shocked them with several of my questions.

Tom DVM – at 23:25

/:0)

Goju – at 23:32

questions i asked why use CFR of 2.5% when indo has 80% and getting worse what about birds found in US with LPAI Are vax comp researching recombination to predict pandemic strain for vacinne did tami blanket work is it hidding h5n1 cases and generating false negs asked French Health minister what they do at level 4, 5 7 6 (answer pissed of nabarro!)

and the 10 minute talk w/ nabarro

anon_22 – at 23:44

Gju,

Well done! Thank you.

Looking forward to your report!

07 September 2006

Leo7 – at 02:02

Goju:

Sounds like you did all the flubies proud! Can’t wait for the blow by blow.

Clawdia – at 02:30

Most interested in his response re: the low path H5N1 in the States.

MaMaat 02:46

Way to go Goju!

Anticipating your full post on the discussion- thanks for sharing this with us

Grimoire – at 02:59

Bravo, Goju:)

Edna Mode – at 07:34

Wow, Goju! Waiting with anticipation! Kudos to you!

Ruth – at 07:38

Gojo, Can’t wait to hear all the details! Thanks

bird-dog – at 08:17

Goju, all of the above!

To you and our Flu Wiki: thank you, thank you, thank you. What a gift!

History Lover – at 09:57

My thanks also Goju.

09 November 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:39

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.QuestionsForNabarroAtTomorrowsConference
Page last modified on November 09, 2006, at 08:39 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / General Vaccination Discussions II

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: General Vaccination Discussions II

03 September 2006

anon_22 – at 14:17

part 1 here

cookie flusher – at 16:36

For TomDVM Methyl Mercury Natural and man made sources Environmental sources

In the past, methylmercury was produced directly and indirectly as part of several industrial processes such as the manufacture of acetaldehyde. Currently there are few anthropogenic sources of methylmercury pollution other than the burning of wastes containing inorganic mercury and from the burning of fossil fuels, particularly coal. Although inorganic mercury is only a trace constituent of such fuels, their large scale combustion in the United States alone results in release of some 50 tons of elemental mercury to the atmosphere each year. About 3 times as much additional inorganic mercury is contributed by natural sources such as volcanoes, forest fires and weathering of mercury-bearing rocks.(Tewalt, Bragg & Finkelman 2005) Methylmercury is formed from inorganic mercury by the action of anaerobic organisms that live in aquatic systems including lakes, rivers, wetlands, sediments, soils and the open ocean.

Racter – at 16:51

Sorry you had trouble with finding everything at the link for the McRearden contamination article. Here is a better pdf version, containing all references and footnotes

Thanks, beehiver, that helps. I’ll reserve further comments until after I’ve finished my homework.

perhaps public education and pressure about the issue is what needs to happen. Maybe that is what motivated McRearden to write that review paper, to help educate the public in a way that brought the documentation away from news articles, and moving it into the journal literature and even FDA’s own discussions

I think it’s always reasonable to consider motives. Where adverse reactions to vaccines are concerned, the motives of potential litigants and their attorneys should not be hastily dismissed. Where flu vaccines in particular are concerned, I always like to point out that low uptake and antigenic shift/drift make this one of the least profitable areas a pharmaceutical company has motives for devoting its resources to. Low uptake is significantly impacted by the persistence of urban myth; the average person who shuns the vaccine is not likely to do so due to the types of concerns you (and McRearden) express; it’s going to be because he believes he can catch the virus by recieving the vaccine. Trying to educate a public addicted to the ten-second sound bite on matters not directly concerning the love-lives of celebrities can be an exercise in frustration.

We could have endless spirited discussions surrounding details of the contamination problem. But that will not make the problem go away.

Indeed, the “spirited” nature of those discussions often poses something of a problem in itself.

Tom DVM – at 16:56

cookie flusher Thanks for the explanation.

I assume that ‘anthropogenic sources of mercury’ means that manmade sources have been removed or we think they have…and I assume that the methyl mercury in fish comes from the natural chemical reactions you mentioned in ‘aquatic systems’?

It makes me wonder why fish farmed Salmon have much higher methy- mercury levels than wild Salmon.

Racter – at 17:07

anon_22 at 12:57:
far more damage is done prenatally than postnatally, as any effect on the immune or neural system is lifelong

In a somewhat broader sense, the influence of environmental toxins is most significant for the developing embryo, somewhat less for the infant, less still for the older child, and least of all for the adult. Much development, neural development in particular, occurs postnatally, and there are numerous critical stages at which it may be significantly influenced by (say) toxins, which may, at the same levels, have little or no impact at other stages.

A human embryo starts out as a single cell, which divides into two cells, and so on. After a while, the process of “differentiation” begins; the progeny of some cells will go on to become brain cells, others liver cells, etc. A small tweak to just one cell at a critical point can end up affecting all of the cells that come after. Certain substances having little effect at one stage of the process can have dire consequences at another.

The methylmercuric-cysteinyl complex is recognized by amino acid transporting proteins in the body as methionine. This is how it gets spread throughout the body, including the brain, and it’s also why the body does not eliminate it as easily. Lead is a concern for similar reasons; the body mistakes it for calcium. Young children, with their calcium-hungry developing bones, absorb calcium (and therefore lead) more readily from the same blood levels than do adults.

One reason that methylmercury persists in aquatic biosystems is that once it enters the system, it tends to keep getting handed off from one organism to another.

anon_22 – at 17:18

Thanks, Racter.

Much development, neural development in particular, occurs postnatally,

I think you probably mean prenatally. :-)

BTW for those who are not familiar with the issues, bioaccumulation (the tendency for toxins to keep getting handed off from one organism to another) is much more severe in the marine than land habitat because there are far more steps in the food chain. There are studies from Asia that show a very striking correlation between maternal breast milk PCB and other toxins with the amount of seafood in the diet.

Again, this review summarizing the link between prenatal exposures and neuro-developmental disorders gives an idea of the scale of the problems.

Racter – at 18:40

anon_22:
I think you probably mean prenatally.

No, I meant postnatally. The human brain is incompletely developed at birth. It is often suggested that this is evolution’s solution to a conflict between design constraints: the brain, and therefore the head, needs to be as big as possible, but the size of the birth canal cannot be increased beyond a certain point without compromising ambulation (and making the females really weird-looking besides). I prefer to think of it as built-in flexibility. Young ungulates typically stand up and start walking alongside their mothers within hours. Human ambulation isn’t that much harder to learn, it’s that human survival depends on a wider range of abilities. If you want your critter to be capable of a wide range of complex tasks, you don’t do so much hard-wiring; instead, leave as many as possible of the final details to be completed on the fly.

anon_22 – at 19:32

Racter,

This may not be the place to go too deeply into developmental disorders, certainly the jury is still out as to how juch pre- vs postnatal influences are important in (physical) environmental correlatates of neuraldevelopmental disorders such as autistic spectrum disorders or ADHD. My original point, if we still remember how we got here :-), was the issue of proportionality, how much difference might thiomersal make in a whole generation of kids who may have practically been swimming in a sea of such toxins before they were even born.

04 September 2006

Bump – at 00:49
Sarah – at 08:05

Anon_22, You’re right, I am not against all vaccines. I also believe you know the reporting system is not simply, imperfect. It was never really started. Its funny how several posters demand data, but overlook the lack of data, purposely not recorded about vaccines. They then base their arguments on recent “reports” from agencies that have an obvious desire for the continuation of the current vaccine system. This is how they determine “risk/benefit”? Scary.

“how much difference might thiomersal make in a whole generation of kids who may have practically been swimming in a sea of such toxins before they were even born.”

I’m sure most readers are aware that many children developed symptoms, such as a drastic change in their behavior, shortly after receiving vaccines. Is this a coincidence, anon_22? I’ll assume you don’t think this. I’m sure Racter is chomping at the bit to blame attorneys and parents, again. We will just wait and see. The fact is, the medical community observed these reactions many, many, years ago. These observations were recorded in a medical journal. As time passed, the popularity of “Herd Immunity” grew and the observations shrank. This information is easy to find. Good luck, readers. The human conscience can cause the most ridiculous justifications. Unfortunately, it’s our kids that really suffer. I’m not suggesting we stop vaccinations. I’m simply asking for the truth. I don’t want individuals like Racter, making health decisions for my family. I have a feeling, his benefit is not worth my child’s risk. Gather and solve.

Racter – at 10:01

This may not be the place to go too deeply into developmental disorders.

Oh sorry. Yeah. Don’t get me started, I guess.

The subject of vaccine safety is an emotionally charged one for a lot of us. Me, I’m high risk, so the idea of being exposed is scary. I’ve had lots of practice at social distancing. Most people don’t think too much about flu, even during flu season, and of those that do, most don’t seem to be very informed as to how it’s transmitted, and even if they were, I’m a bit cynical about how much thought they would give to how their behaviors impact others.

In making the decision as to whether the kids are healthy enough to send to school, for example, I think a lot of parents don’t give much priority to how contagious they might be. The idea that just having contact with a person with flu makes you a likely candidate for passing the bug around even though you may still feel fine, is something most people just don’t seem ready to wrap their heads around. They’re used to thinking of it as a sort of lottery, like: “if there’s a bug out there with your name on it, there’s nothing you can do about it”. The concept: “contagious before symptoms” is one that takes most people by surprise. Added to the self-centeredness, that sort of ignorance increases the risk for me, and the fear factor along with it. Among the possible responses to that fear, anger is the one that seems to come most naturally. Unfortunately, anger is not a mental state conducive to rational evaluation of evidence. This is why breathing is so important.

The risk of complications from influenza is high enough for me that going around unvaccinated is pretty much out of the question. If they told me that they knew for sure that I had a one-in-a-hundred chance of an adverse reaction, I’d take the jab anyway; that’s better odds than I’d get from the virus. Naturally, I’d like it best if everyone got vaccinated, but beyond a few family members, I can’t realistically expect others to do that just to protect me, especially if they aren’t even considerate enough to cover their mouths when they cough, or keep their sick kids home from school. Besides, some of them may not even like me, and it’s apparently going too far (in current U.S. culture anyway) to ask people to put themselves out for others whom they don’t even like.

Sarah:
I don’t want individuals like Racter, making health decisions for my family.

Dang, and I promised the storm troopers I’d take them to pizza after your forced vaccination.

By walking around unvaccinated, YOU are already making health decisions for MY family. You’re an immunological freeloader. You enjoy the benefits of vaccination without the risks. You are protected by the immunity of those around you who do accept the risk of vaccination. Let me ask you this: would you consider the risk of vaccination to be a more acceptable tradeoff for someone with an immunocompromised child?

Tom DVM – at 10:07

Racter. Just don’t assume that the current seasonal flu vaccines are protecting you and a false sense of security leads you to take additional risks because you believe you are protected…

..because the odds indicate that you are far more likely to have no protection as a result of initial vaccination and boosters etc.

…and I for one doesn’t want anything to happen to you…even if you are eracable. /:0)

anon_22 – at 10:36

Racter,

Get off being personal.

anon_22 – at 10:39

Sarah,

I’m sure most readers are aware that many children developed symptoms, such as a drastic change in their behavior, shortly after receiving vaccines. Is this a coincidence, anon_22? I’ll assume you don’t think this.

There are quite a lot of disorders that have prenatal or genetic predisposing causes and then get triggered by postnatal environmental causes. Vaccines would be one of them. FYI.

The difficulty is in identifying who are the kids who ar likely to be susceptible to adverse effects. Sometimes we can, often it is very hard. If you are talking about vaccinations in infancy.

Racter – at 10:51

Just don’t assume that the current seasonal flu vaccines are protecting you and a false sense of security leads you to take additional risks because you believe you are protected.

Like going to the grocery store?

Get off being personal.

I’m not being personal. My statement is directed to anyone who refuses vaccination. And it isn’t offered so much as a statement of fact as a statement about my emotional reaction. I’m saying: “here’s what my gut reaction to this is, and I concede that this reaction my be clouding my judgement; feel free to talk me out of it if you can”.

anon_22 – at 10:53

Racter,

I’m not being personal.

By walking around unvaccinated, YOU are already making health decisions for MY family. You’re an immunological freeloader. You enjoy the benefits of vaccination without the risks. You are protected by the immunity of those around you who do accept the risk of vaccination. Let me ask you this: would you consider the risk of vaccination to be a more acceptable tradeoff for someone with an immunocompromised child?

Just try to use the word ‘you’ less frequently. Give everyone a break, ok?

Racter – at 11:17

I’m saying: “here’s what my gut reaction to this is, and I concede that this reaction my be clouding my judgement; feel free to talk me out of it if you can”.

Actually, it’s more than than that. I’m saying:
“Here we are trying to conduct a rational examination of the facts of this issue, and time and again, we find ourselves unable to do so because this issue IS PERSONAL for each and every one of us persons. Some of us fear the illness more than the cure, and some the other way around, but we are all afraid, and when we get scared, we get angry. We want to kick something. But the dangers we face here are not visible to the naked eye, so we kick each other instead. But we don’t notice it so much when we’re the kicker as when we’re the kickee. If there is any hope of us learning anything from each other here, it’s going to have to be more than a butt-kicking contest, and maybe the best way to get past that is to take a look at just what it is we’re afraid of, and so here I am going first”.

beehiver – at 11:34

Hi Racter at 10:01,

“You are protected by the immunity of those around you who do accept the risk of vaccination.”

But if we take the example of what I posted in part one of this thread (at 10:28) about chickenpox vaccinations - that breakthrough infections can occur in up to 56% percent of vaccinated individuals, and that those individuals are often highly infectious even though their symptoms might be considered mild…then the tables are turned. The ones that did not accept vaccination can be at particular risk from the ones that did, if a breakthrough infection occurs. And, the reports show that with this particular vaccine, protection seems to wane significantly the second year.

I don’t know how often breakthrough infections happen with influenza vaccine, obviously any stats would be clouded by viral strain variants. To do a research project on that would require that every participant who received vaccination and got ill get the offending virus sequenced to determine whether it was the same strain as the vaccine, or not. That would significantly raise the cost of the project. And, sometimes respiratory illness will also be caused by viruses other than influenza, but yet perceived to be “flu” (especially by general public).

I fully concur that a large effort is needed in the public health arena to teach people safer methods of coughing, sneezing, and keeping ill people out of the workplace, schools, and public places. The faculty at schools would need to become much more flexible than they often are, because kids are scared of missing too many classes or tests - especially at high schools and universities. Some faculty have no sensitivity to these issues whatsoever - and are on one heck of a power trip.

I do empathize with your situation, you bring up important issues. If the illness we were talking about would be cholera for instance, the public would be on a very fast learning curve how to avoid and prevent it. And that may need to happen with pandemic influenza.

These issues are complex, and no one answer seems to fit every situation. But good public health habits, good nutrition, good water sources, and less toxins could go a long way towards easing some of the problems staring us in the face.

Sarah – at 11:51

beehiver, Racter is well aware of the information in your post. Racter, your life is not worth a risk to my child, because you will not accept responsibility for the risk. If you believe in “Herd Immunity” you must take care of the herd. That includes families that take the vaccine risk and pay the price. You have not and you never will. As a matter of fact, you turn your back and claim there is no “data”. Good luck. You may want to stay inside. I’m not alone. By the way, my son is going to yoga today. I’ll give you a little wink when they practice breathing. Peace&Health.

nsthesia – at 11:51

anon_22:

At the risk of being labelled as being personal…IMO your (I’m sure unintentional) bias is showing in the above posts…the utilization of a poster’s name is infinitely more personal (8:05) vs. the utilization of the pronoun “you”.

<we now return to our regular programming>

An aspect of this vaccination/panflu issue that alters our perspectives is the type of healthcare system in our respective countries. My DH was raised and lived in Canada until the last decade. He and I have had NUMEROUS arguments about healthcare because we see the issue from different perspectives. It took years to understand what a vast difference this makes. And I see this issue perhaps unknowingly, playing a role in many of the threads we see here.

My comments about the varicella vaccine and the risk/benefit ratio of a “minor” virus plays into this issue. I understand that you are in the UK. That may be an erroneous assumption. And I do not know the exact mechanism or the requirements that your healthcare system mandates regarding vaccinations.

What I learned during these marathon debates, was that in a socialized system, so much more was devoted to prevention than in the US system. That part I envied. The mindset that the government is responsible for the healthcare of it’s citizens BECAUSE IT PAYS FOR IT, creates a different type of system. (So does our legal system, but that is another thread).

A child in a socialized system that gets chickenpox, gets the usual care from their pediatrician. Anyone exposed to that child gets the same care by their physicians. Any complications get taken care of by governmental edict (albeit via higher citizen taxation). There may even be assistance with sick childcare for working parents.

In the US, (most) citizens have to pay for immunizations or any other preventative care. A child that gets ill with that “minor” virus incurs another expense for the parents, including any meds, and time off from work (often not compensated). Any elderly, immunocompromised, or pregnant women exposed also have to endure that expense and/or sequelae.

My DH says that “in his day” the kids were all lined up and innoculated in school, without regard of parental consent. Probably not so today, but it was mandatory for them to be innoculated to attend school. Has this changed?

Stockpiling of antivirals and even acquisition of a panflu vaccine will be and is different in our healthcare systems. Socialized countries have greater access to antivirals now because their governments are responsible for their individual healthcare. In the US, each individual is responsible. That changes everything.

Yes, that changes everything. And it is the “elephant in the room” that can not be ignored when speaking of healthcare issues. When I speak of a risk/benefit ratio, and you speak of a cost/benefit ratio, we look at the same issue with different eyes, whether it be vaccinations or a panflu.

Tom DVM – at 11:55

H everyone. Something to keep in mind here is that we are talking about a total of 200 million people during the next pandemic that may have the priviledge or curse of being vaccinated…depends how you look at it.

Really, for all of us on flu wiki and more importantly our children…it is not going to be an option anyway.

Tom DVM – at 11:57

And if you notice…there production systems fail about half the time when producing the much easier seasonal influenza…in a pandemic the pressures under which they will work will be many multiples of this and the chance of production failures…very likely.

We have to come up with other alternatives!!

anon_22 – at 12:02

nsthesia – at 11:51

I’m not sure I’m understanding you. Maybe its because of the perception of where I live. Actually it is only where I live currently. Without giving out too many personal details, I’ve lived in several different countries and practiced medicine in other different ones. So my remarks are more based on a theoretical/general sense than with any context of the type of healthcare system in mind. :-)

Please enlighten me some more cos I think you’ve got some good points. I’m just confused. :-)

BTW do not have any illusions about the benefits of a socialized system. It most commonly result in equity only to bring everyone down to the lowest common denominator. I’m not sure that it is worth it. For what it’w worth, a recent OECD report places the UK 24th of 27th countries (or something in that range) for healthcare outcomes.

beehiver – at 12:08

nesthesia at 11:51, thank you for your input…have not seen this issue of “medical responsibility” put quite so clearly anywhere, it is certainly food for thought.

anon_22 – at 12:20

beehiver, your comments at 11:34 shows precisely how there isn’t a one-size-fit-all answer to vaccines. I’m specifically talking about chickepox vaccine vs influenza vaccine. Even though they are both vaccines, the implications and imperatives are very different. As are their effectiveness vis-a-vis personal vs collective health outcomes.

So perhaps its not very fruitful to debate across all vaccination issues, but rather picks specific vaccines and debate those.

nsthesia – at 12:29

As far as vaccine production and protection of these producers in the US…

Companies that produce vaccines in Canada and Europe already have protection from general litigation. We did not have that here. In Canada, vaccine production is a result of corporate and provincial interaction. The vaccines are produced, the government buys the lot and distributes it accordingly. These corporations are not held liable for adverse reactions UNLESS there is a gross negligence intentionally committed.

Many of these countries in Europe produce vaccines for their own use. Their governments purchase the products from these corporations, thereby ensuring survival for corporations whose product may or may not be utilized consistently every year.

In the US, private corporations have been held responsible and litigated for often frivolous suits. Inconsistent purchase of their products, with minimal governmental purchase, made for a tenuous environment. That is what has put the US in the situation it now finds itself…no companies willing to risk vaccine production without governmental protection (like in OTHER developed countries). It has also made us dependent on “foreign” countries for the acquisition of these vaccines.

Not a good position to be in. The playing field needed to be leveled.

We keep talking apples and oranges when speaking of these issues. It may be beneficial to look outside of our own countries to understand we each have significant differences. Yet, we each think the other thinks as we do and has the same experiences. Wrong assumption - one that causes wars. Our differences must be understood to be resolved.

anon_22 – at 13:09

nsthesia – at 12:29

Thank you. Most excellent point. Various people have been pushing for harmonization for the purpose of pandemic vaccine production. It just is not happening.

Tom DVM – at 13:23

“These corporations are not held liable for adverse reactions UNLESS there is a gross negligence intentionally committed.”

nsthesia

Are you sure about your Canadian information? I am from Canada and have heard nothing of legal escapes from vaccine incidents.

Also regarding the comments on socialized medicine…at least I don’t loose my house if I am unfortunate to become seriously ill or a member of my family becomes seriously ill.

I won’t comment on other countries because I do not think it is ethical but I am quite happy with the balance in our system at present…even if I have been less than happy with some of the treatment I have recieved within this system.

Racter – at 14:00

NSarah1:
If you believe in Herd Immunity you must take care of the herd. That includes families that take the vaccine risk and pay the price.

You’ve got a good point there. With the gentle guidance of patient souls such as yourself, I’m beginning to see that I may not always have given that as much consideration as it deserves. How to address that without driving litigation-conscious pharmaceutical companies off the field entirely remains a puzzle, but maybe a payoff in increased public confidence, and an accompanying increase in the market for vaccines, would help keep them motivated.

You have not and you never will. As a matter of fact, you turn your back and claim there is no data.

Here, you indulge in unnecessarily inflammatory language. You (as a representative of the “anti-vax” stance) are angry because you feel that I (as a representative of the “pro-vax” stance) have turned my back on relevant data. Your anger is justified only if what you say is true: that important data have been hidden or deliberately ignored. Your anger doesn’t MAKE it true, yet you often seem to argue as if you feel it does. Are you really afraid that someone will force you to get vaccinated?

Perhaps what is really in dispute is not so much data, but interpretations of data, and with the biases which always appear so glaring when they belong to somebody else. It’s interesting that while my default assumption is that bias is always present, and that the biases that will always be both the most limiting for me and the most difficult to spot are my own, noting that does little to help actually identify them. For that, I need help from someone like you, but it only works if you support your observations with something I can sink my teeth into. I’ve asked a number of times to see what you’ve got. If you can’t provide anything because “the data are hidden”, then my logic modules want to know: if the data are hidden, how can you know about them? Are your arguments based on data that might exist? Because that’s a pretty slippery slope.

anon_22:
perhaps its not very fruitful to debate across all vaccination issues, but rather picks specific vaccines and debate those.

I keep thinking it might be best to go in the other direction, and start one level up, with a “meta-discussion” about the best way to discuss the issues. We inevitably end up doing a lot of that anyway, but seldom in a very productive way, and only after reaching a point of impasse over minutiae. Nsthesia says it well: Our differences must be understood to be resolved. I don’t see our differences to propagate upward from the level of minutiae; they start somewhere above there, and work down. As we arrive at the level of minutiae by different paths, we see things differently. I wonder if we can at least agree that the high ground is unoccupied; that no one speaks from a position which is superior by virtue of being free from personal biases, fears, and frustrations?

Hurricane Alley RN – at 14:07

Hi all, Why all the concern? Since a true vacine most likely can’t be developed/manufactured until 6 months post first wave. It appears to me it will not be produced. Without a reliable power grid, the odds of a vacine being produced are slim to none. I do believe that is why so many countries are trying to develope something now. There thoughts being… Some resistance is better than none at all. Does this make any sense or am I barking up the wrong egg? gina

anon_22 – at 14:14

Racter,

Nsthesia says it well: Our differences must be understood to be resolved.

Differences don’t always have to be resolved. We can just be different.

There’s not enough time in my life to resolve everything around vaccination or indeed any topic. So there! :-)

INFOMASS – at 14:34

One thing I do not understand: If there is protection in the federal law for drug companies against getting sued for vaccine reactions, what possible argument is there to hide relevant data? It seems to me that if you provide legal protection like that, it should be completely mandatory to report and publicize all adverse outcomes. You still might not get all events due to long-term and subtle complications, but there is no rationale I can see for combining legal protection and secrecy.

Racter – at 16:18

Since a true vacine most likely can’t be developed/manufactured until 6 months post first wave. It appears to me it will not be produced. Without a reliable power grid, the odds of a vacine being produced are slim to none.

Gina (and Tom), pandemic flu isn’t the only issue; there are ongoing disputes over vaccination policies, efficacy, safety, etc. This winter, somewhere around 36,000 Americans will die from seasonal influenza alone even if H5N1 doesn’t go pandemic (and some unknown but presumably much smaller number from adverse reactions to flu vaccines). I’m not as quick as some to automatically assume that power grids will fail, but one thing that appears clear is that resolving the differences over vaccines won’t suddenly become easy in the teeth of a pandemic, even if the lights stay on. As things stand, even if we had a foolproof vaccine ready to go, and in quantities sufficient to give everyone a dose, a lot of people would probably choose to take their chances with the virus anyway. It can be a life-or-death decision, even in the absence of a pandemic, and I suspect that the average fluwikian, regardless of his position, has given the matter a lot more thought than the vast majority of his neighbors. In fact, if there’s one thing we all seem to agree on, it’s that for most, whatever the decision is, it is not likely to be a well-informed one; people mostly just follow their gut instincts on this.

INFOMASS:
If there is protection in the federal law for drug companies against getting sued for vaccine reactions, what possible argument is there to hide relevant data?

Excellent point. “To maintain high confidence among the public and thereby increase sales” is the answer I’d expect.

nsthesia – at 16:41

TomDVM:

“Unlike many western countries which recognize and compensate vaccine injuries, Canada offers no recognition nor compensation when vaccine damage occurs - except for the province of Quebec.”

I don’t remember where I read it, but I read where compensation for a wrongful death in Canada was limited to $30,000. My understanding is that the trend is to change that, but historically, it has been quite difficult to successfully win monetary compensation there.

DH has contacts in Canada and runs a biomedical company. He will ask one of his Canadian scientists for more info tomorrow to see if anything has changed regarding litigation…

Tom DVM – at 16:49

nsthesia. Thanks. I do not thik that wrongful death suits are limited to 30,000$. The only place I have heard of anything similar is no fault car insurance that I think limits injury claims.

I think it is just that Canada seems to follow the trends in the United States approx. ten years later.

Canadian Farmers presently are two years into a class action against Government and regulators for nine billion dollars over the BSE outbreak. They are going to win that lawsuit and I’m not sure if there ever has been one this big in the USA.

05 September 2006

Sarah – at 12:41

“In the US, private corporations have been held responsible and litigated for often frivolous suits.” “That is what has put the US in the situation it now finds itself…no companies willing to risk vaccine production without governmental protection (like in OTHER developed countries). It has also made us dependent on “foreign” countries for the acquisition of these vaccines.”

 Or, vaccines can cause severe side-effects. The true risk/benefit is not known. The vaccine professionals did not keep accurate data and/or, like the Tobacco Industry, never revealed it. Now they find themselves in a precarious situation. The US public has already witnessed a huge cover-up involving research that showed the detrimental effects of a product (tobacco).  American law firms are more then capable of exposing the truth and American juries will reward them. Run, pharmaceutical companies, run.  Or, you can blame it on attorneys and the parents of sick children.  The risk that needs to be taken in this situation is this. Vaccine “professionals” need to be honest and risk telling the truth. Yes, it may cause some parents not to vaccinate. Yes, it may cost the industry a lot of money. However, to continue denying the risks and producing bogus “risk/benefit” numbers in an attempt to show how safe vaccines are, is going to perpetuate the growing distrust a huge portion of the US public has toward vaccines. If the public feels it has been lied to about one type of vaccine, it will not trust “professionals” advice on another.  I am not “anti-vaccine”. I think the concept of vaccines is great. I have a problem with dishonesty. It alienates the public and in the long run undermines the industry. Protecting “Herd Immunity” at the expense of truth has killed it. Now we have millions of Americans not vaccinating and the number is growing each year. Gather and Solve.   
Annoyed Max- Not mad yet – at 14:11

Wow quite the hot-button issue I see. Since I do not have children that I am aware of :) I think I can comment emotion free. From a scientific approach there are mountains of papers that directly link thimerosal in vaccines to developmental problems, mainly autism. I personally think there is a link and it all depends on when you get exposed, how much you get exposed, your genetics, and pure luck. Personally when I have to vaccinate my children I will request the vaccines not come from bulk bottles which contain thimerosal but from single use injections that can be ordered thimerosal free.

     What does all this have to do with AF.  Plenty, since the current vaccine will have it in there.  I asked in the clinical trial, always nice to know your injecting toxins into your body. If there is a pandemic vaccine they will not make it as a single injection dose it will be in multi-dose bottles as is the current vaccine.  But what are you going to do face an infinitely small risk of thimerosal or face BF unvaccinated.    
     As an adult I do not worry about thimerosal in the vaccine as my exposure to body size is vastly different than an infants and if anything my brain is getting smaller not larger (umm beer).  But there is always a risk, so is life.  
     As far as heard immunity goes I think it is irresponsible because like someone else stated you are making medical decisions for others.  Although if your reading this its prob preaching to the choir.  Plus in the recent past there have been outbreaks in children of common preventable disease because heard immunity was being depended on to greatly.  
INFOMASS – at 14:39

The NYT today (Tuesday) had an article about smallpox vaccinations. It turns out that the strain of smallpox virus used has a huge impact on the side effects, including deaths. The study found that the European strains (Lister and Copenhagen, among others) were much more dangerous than the NY strain used in the US. However, the story did mention that (paraphrasing) you do not know the side-effects until you have lots of vaccinations and observe the effects! Bottom line? First, there are serious studies of SOME vaccinations that report negative results. Second, if we paid more attention to details like mercury, adjuvants or strains, we might reduce the risk. Third, if we have a proposed H5N1 vaccine, we cannot make an informed guess about the risk/reward tradeoff until millions have been vaccinated and we find out its effects on immunity (which could be low or not) as well as its side-effects. Overall, a mess.

Racter – at 17:06

Vaccine professionals need to be honest and risk telling the truth.

I have two problems with this. One is that it assumes facts not in evidence. In this regard, it’s reminiscent of the old “is it true that you’re still beating your wife?”. It’s typical of what passes for critical thinking in these times of “trial by accusation” and “trial by media”.

The other is that no matter how much evidence is presented, those who are not satisfied with what it indicates will always be able to issue the same complaint: “there isn’t enough evidence; it hasn’t been studied thoroughly enough, the real evidence is hidden”, etc.

American law firms are more then capable of exposing the truth

If law firms are the custodians of truth in America, I’d say we’re all in big trouble.

American juries will reward them.

An American jury awarded Stella Liebeck several million dollars for spilling a cup of coffee on herself. If what American juries will or won’t award is the test for what’s true and what’s right, I’d say we’re all in big trouble. Litigation too is a business.

If the public feels it has been lied to about one type of vaccine, it will not trust professionals advice on another”.

There’s something we agree on. And convincing the public that they’ve been lied to is not difficult. It hardly requires any evidence at all; indeed, since the public’s attention span is largely limited to the ten-second sound bite and the two-minute news clip, the quickest way to bore them is to try to get them to look at evidence. Americans want to be told that they’ve been lied to. They love a good conspiracy theory. Surprising numbers of them still cling to the notion that their government has lied to them for decades about the recovery of an alien spacecraft in the New Mexico desert. The American public feels that it has been lied to about the H5N1 threat; if they didn’t, they’d be prepping, and they aren’t. If whether the American public feels it has been lied to about something is the test for whether that thing is true, I’d say we’re all in big trouble.

Sarah – at 18:29

“And convincing the public that they’ve been lied to is not difficult. It hardly requires any evidence at all; indeed, since the public’s attention span is largely limited to the ten-second sound bite and the two-minute news clip, the quickest way to bore them is to try to get them to look at evidence. Americans want to be told that they’ve been lied to.” All hail King Racter! Wow, did I peg you or what? The families I know that chose not to vaccinate are well-educated and very health conscious. My family does not have cable or even the local channels. Many of the families we visit with share the same philosophy. Sorry, Racter, the big, bad portion of the public that chose not to vaccinate are not all simpletons. Quite the opposite. “You have not and you never will” So true, so true. Stay inside, Racter. The aliens are coming, sorry, I mean attorneys. Sometimes I think you have to be joking.

anonymous – at 19:15

Sarrah, I respectfully disagree that “families I know that chose not to vaccinate are well-educated …”. It takes little education to act in one’s own self-interest. What really takes education is to act in the interest of a greater group. It is the non-intuitive, altruistic recognition that cooperation buys more than selfisness that must be learned. You and your friends have chosen to act in your own self-interest, and to shut out information from the outside world, preferring your own internal ‘story’. Fine. But, because it is a story, you are unfortunately unable to provide any facts to back it up. I agree that the nonvaccinating community are not simpletons. Selfish is one term that comes to mind, although there are others.

dd – at 21:05

beehiver – at 11:34 writes about breakthru infections from vaccinated individuals, and the fact that they are often infectious to others. Then he/she mentions possible breakthru infection from the flu vaccine. Is that possible? I have always heard that it is ABSOLUTELY NOT POSSIBLE to get the flu from the vaccine.

I ask because my mom had never had the flu in her life. One year her doc hounded her into taking the vaccine and right after that she got the flu for the one and only time in her life. She has refused the vaccine ever since. The doc swears the vaccine could not have caused her to get the flu.

anon_22 – at 21:18

I have always heard that it is ABSOLUTELY NOT POSSIBLE to get the flu from the vaccine.

The commonest form of flu vaccine is the inactivated subunit vaccine, ie there are no live virus particles, whereas the chickenpox vaccine is a live attenuated vaccine.

Sarah – at 22:20

Anonymous, “your life is not worth a risk to my child, because you will not accept responsibility for the risk. If you believe in “Herd Immunity” you must take care of the herd. That includes families that take the vaccine risk and pay the price. You have not and you never will. As a matter of fact, you turn your back and claim there is no “data”. Good luck. You may want to stay inside. I’m not alone” It’s the act of a coward to demand a risk and then ignore the fallen. It’s pathetic and a little creepy, when the same individual grows angry at parents for not participating. Selfish is one term that comes to mind, insane, is another.

dd – at 22:53

anon_22 at 21:18, You say the “commonest” form of the flu vaccine has no live particles. Does that mean that some flu vaccines have live viruses?

Racter – at 23:14

A lot of my focus is on influenza, because I have for some time considered this to be the single greatest threat to my life (at least during those times when I am not travelling by automobile). To all those who have, thanks to H5N1, recently begun also to percieve flu in this way: welcome to my world. While you plan for social distancing, I’ll be practicing it, just as I have done for a number of winters. Thanks for the tip, Sarah, but I really don’t need you to tell me to stay inside; for me, it’s a no-brainer during flu season, especially with all those unvaccinated people running around. (By the way, have you considered the question I asked above? In case you forgot, here it is again: would you consider the risk of vaccination to be a more acceptable tradeoff for someone with an immunocompromised child?)

Most people don’t consider seasonal influenza to be a serious threat; and to most, it isn’t; not life-threatening, anyway. But every year, roughly a tenth to a fifth of the population will spend a week flat on their backs with flu at some point, at a cost in lost production estimated in billions of dollars (if that’s the sort of thing that works for you). Despite this, roughly eighty percent continue to decline the vaccine.

Of this majority, there are those who decline because they don’t like needles, those who decline because they don’t want to pay, because they don’t think they have time, because they think they’ll get the virus from the vax, because they think whatever exercise or vitamin regimen they’re on will protect them, because they don’t think the vax will work, because they just don’t think about it — and there are those who decline because they just don’t think. People at all levels of income and education can be included among one or more of these groups, and I would differentiate between these and the broader non-vaccinating community.

That community includes both non-vaxers and anti-vaxers, and for convenience, I tend to lump these together into a single category. I shouldn’t do that. The former are those who have been persuaded that the risk of any vaccine outweighs the potential benefits (and some who object to the whole idea on religious grounds; that many of these home school their kids is something we can all be happy about).

The latter, the anti-vaxers, are on a mission. For them, it’s not merely a stance; it’s a movement. They see themselves as crusaders against the evils of “Big Pharma”, who ride in the same car as “Big Tobacco”. This, in fact, is a comparison they make at every opportunity. It’s low overhead; most folks can connect the dots in a second, without bothering with “evidence”; they’re already predisposed to distrusting anything big anyway; business, government, whatever. It’s an appeal to intuition. The disseminators of antivax propaganda are not all simpletons; some of them seem quite skilled at psychological manipulation. They know their audience, and they know better than to bore them with facts; they stick with anecdotes, testimonials, poster-children, appeals to emotion and intuition. They howl about the suffering big pharma causes — if they are right — yet I seldom see much willingness to acknowledge the suffering their “information campaign” causes if they are wrong. That doesn’t seem to be a possibility they are willing to consider; they have a responsibility to do that, and I don’t see it being met, and the irony is that this is precisely their main beef with big pharma.

Sarah:
My family does not have cable or even the local channels.

I’ll give you points there; that’s a plus in my book. I don’t do TV either. As bitter as our dispute here may be, I wouldn’t be surprised if we got along fine IRL. (Just not during flu season).

The aliens are coming, sorry, I mean attorneys.

I have news for you; the attorneys aren’t coming; theeyyy’re HEEERE.

06 September 2006

beehiver – at 00:02

dd at 21:05.

That’s a very good question you bring up. But it’s been my understanding that a “breakthrough” infection refers to a vaccinated individual that gets a circulating wild-type infection (not an infection from the vaccine). If someone else has a different understand of the term “breakthrough”, please correct me. Tom DVM? Anon_22?

If my memory serves me correctly, about 60-some percent of the mumps infections in Iowa early this summer (or perhaps it was the midwest in general, I just don’t remember) occurred in individuals that had been previously vaccinated. Those would be considered breakthrough infections.

Racter – at 00:45

my mom had never had the flu in her life. One year her doc hounded her into taking the vaccine and right after that she got the flu for the one and only time in her life. She has refused the vaccine ever since.

There it is. Post hoc, ergo promter hoc.

Breakthrough Infection

Definition: An infection, caused by the infectious agent the vaccine is designed to protect against, that occurs during the course of a vaccine trial. These infections may be caused by exposure to the infectious agent before the vaccine has taken effect, or before all doses of the vaccine have been given.

anon_22 – at 00:54

dd – at 22:53 “anon_22 at 21:18, You say the “commonest” form of the flu vaccine has no live particles. Does that mean that some flu vaccines have live viruses?

Flumist is a live attenuated vaccine adminstered by nasal spray.

anon_22 – at 00:56

beehiver – at 00:02 dd at 21:05.

That’s a very good question you bring up. But it’s been my understanding that a “breakthrough” infection refers to a vaccinated individual that gets a circulating wild-type infection (not an infection from the vaccine).

Correct.

I didn’t get whether you were referring to infection by the vaccine in your remarks, but that would be the meaning of the phrase.

dd – at 17:16

anon_22 and racter - my misunderstanding about breakthru infection. I am still curious if the flu vaccine itself could cause a flu infection.. Since flumist has live virus, could it somehow infect the person receiving it or some one they come in contact with?

racter at 00:45 - the flu infection could have been a coincidence, but the timing sure looked suspicious - once out of 75 years. I certainly can’t fault her for asking questions. I also can’t fault her for not getting the vaccine for something she doesn’t get anyway. I know of numerous people who get the vaccine and then still get the flu.

Of course vaccinating everyone for the flu is a moot point anyway. It seems like alot years there is some sort of shortage. It was last year or the year before, they were interviewing hysterical people who were waiting in lines for hours for the vaccine, because they were convinced that they would die for sure if they didn’t get it. So even if everyone was willing to get it, it just wouldn’t be possible.

Sarah – at 19:57

I’m not anti-vaccine. I’m not part of a “movement”. I used a variety of sources to make my vaccine choice. That includes talking with other parents. Some of them had children that grew ill after receiving vaccines. Two of the parents were medical professionals. I also observed the behavior of the pharmaceutical industry. Let’s not forget, most pharmaceutical companies have the best lawyers money can buy. “Frivolous lawsuits”, right. “It’s the act of a coward to demand a risk and then ignore the fallen. It’s pathetic and a little creepy, when the same individual grows angry at parents for not participating. Selfish is one term that comes to mind, insane, is another.” Good bye, Racter. You have reinforced my vaccine choice. Thank you. I hope the last part of your life journey ends in peace and happiness. The answer to your question is, no. Now get outside and play. dd, I have heard many similar stories.

Racter – at 20:02

dd:
Since flumist has live virus, could it somehow infect the person receiving it or some one they come in contact with?

Yes. Especially if either the person recieving the vax or someone with whom they have close contact is immunocompromised in some way. But it’s rare; currently estimated at 0.6 to 2.4 percent. This risk is significantly lower than the risk of contracting flu from natural sources (and transmitting it). Those odds are roughly 1 in 5 during severe seasonal epidemics, and 1 in 20 during mild ones.

I certainly can’t fault her for asking questions.

I hope you can’t fault me for asking questions about her questions. Establishing causal links can be hard enough even for those specially trained for it; the intuitive default assumption is that if two events occur around the same time, they are causally connected. This works some of the time, and fails spectacularly the rest of the time.

I know of numerous people who get the vaccine and then still get the flu.

I’ve known a number of people in their nineties who smoked like chimmneys since they were teenagers, but it doesn’t mean much standing next to statistics which include millions of people. The jury is in: if you want to live into your nineties, don’t smoke.

It seems like alot years there is some sort of shortage.

Problems with distribution often cause temporary localized shortages, but millions of unused doses are discarded every year. If you take into consideration the number of others to whom each (successfully) vaccinated person won’t be passing the virus on, you don’t need to vaccinate every single one of them anyway.

Tom DVM – at 20:23

Racter. This is off topic but I finally got one to give you in return for that one in March.

Friendship prayer…May the fleas of a thousand camels infest the crotch of the person who screws up your day and may their arms be too short to scratch…Amen.

/:0)

Racter – at 20:31

Tom: I like it.

So Sarah, here we are still having trouble sticking to the facts on this issue, and the problem still seems to be that we get too worked up about it. Obviously, the problem isn’t that you get too worked up about it, though I confess that I experience the temptation to adopt that viewpoint. That’s because I get too worked up about it myself, and when I get all worked up, I have a hard time seeing things rationally. But I tend to think I am seeing things rationally. Because I’m not seeing things rationally. This might be as good a working definition of “insanity” as one could ask for, so I’ll stipulate to that. I’ve tried to look at why it is that I get so worked up, and the first thing I come up with is: fear. Influenza in particular scares the crap out of me. Besides anger, selfishness tends to be another byproduct of fear, so I’ll stipulate to that as well. Pathetic and creepy I have a little more trouble digesting.

My own fear I think I understand; it’s that some unvaccinated person will expose me to influenza, and as a result, I’ll die, and there’s not much I can do about it short of going into total isolation. I isolate as much as I can, but total isolation is tough to sustain for long periods. I rely a lot on handwashing and alcohol gel, and I’ve developed some pretty good habits as far as being careful about what I touch, but during times when I consider the risk high, I’m never very comfortable around others. If they start coughing or sneezing, I won’t hesitate to get up and walk out. I’m not sure what else to do, except to continue to put one foot in front of the other, and remember to breathe.

On the assumption that your passionate involvement in this discussion is similarly driven by fear (hence the flaws in your reasoning which appear as glaring to me as mine do to you), I’ve invited you to examine your own fears. As you have declined this invitation, maybe I’ll just have a quick go at it myself, and if you’d like, perhaps you could check my work and offer any corrections you may feel are indicated.

If all you feared was a bad outcome from a vaccine, you wouldn’t be acting like a person who was still afraid. Just don’t vax, and hey presto, problem solved, fear gone. I considered the possibility that you genuinely are afraid that you will be forced to submit to vaccination against your will, but that doesn’t feel right; there would be more of a “political fringe” flavor to your language. My best guess at this point is that what you fear most of all is that you are wrong. Not vaccinating your children is a big decision, and you know that, and as a parent, I know what it’s like to agonize over decisions regarding one’s children. It never was my intent to cause you further torment, and if I’ve done that, I do apologize.

I will further confess that one of the things that drives me is that some people I care about have also chosen not to vaccinate (and some have had the choice made for them), and I’m trying to get a better grasp on the reasoning. As “evidence” supporting their case, they present some of the same arguments you have presented, like having talked with other parents some of whom had children that grew ill after receiving vaccines — which, to me, is like talking to the guy that smoked since a teenager and lived to be ninety. It’s called a “small sample set”.

nsthesia – at 21:16

Racter:

A yoga-inspired, body/soul response if ever I read one…

“Convince a (wo)man against his will and you convince him not.”

dd – at 21:59

racter, I certainly don’t fault you for asking questions. That’s the only way anyone is ever going to learn anything. I agree it is very hard to find causal links, even when you are looking for them. Sometimes there is an interplay of several variables and that makes it very difficult to establish cause.

What concerns me is when people don’t want to look at a situation because it is complicated. Or worse, where they might have a motive for not looking at a problem. Pharmaceutical company and doctor profits would take a hit if there were a proven problem with a vaccine. I’m not paranoid enough to think there is a conspiracy here to hurt people, but I can also see that it is not in a company’s financial interests to look into these issues. What the companies don’t know, they don’t have to do anything about. The one thing that could give credibility to this issue is independent research, not funded by anyone who stands to profit in any way from the vaccines. Do you know of any studies like this?

A few years ago, was working for a company that had some problems with their product. One of the people who had to go out to client sites asked management what to say when the clients mentioned that there were problems. Management’s answer was “Act surprised as he!!” (Fortunately this wasn’t a health care company.) I have since noticed other companies and government entities doing the same thing. So I like to ask questions and if the response seems evasive, I am going to tread very carefully.

07 September 2006

Racter – at 00:07

Pharmaceutical company and doctor profits would take a hit if there were a proven problem with a vaccine. I’m not paranoid enough to think there is a conspiracy here to hurt people, but I can also see that it is not in a company’s financial interests to look into these issues.

Despite what some would have you believe, licensing of pharmaceuticals is strict, and getting a new vaccine approved takes years. Think of it this way: a liquor store owner might risk grabbing some profit in the short term by knowingly selling to minors, but it isn’t the best way for him to protect his financial interests over the long haul.

What the companies don’t know, they don’t have to do anything about.

Oh, that’s not the way it works at all. Ask any attorney. It’s very much in the best financial interests of a pharmaceutical company to know everything they can about the products they plan to sell before they actually begin to sell them. Ever heard of Fen-Phen? Stockholders just hate multi-billion dollar surprises like that.

Racter – at 01:09

The one thing that could give credibility to this issue is independent research, not funded by anyone who stands to profit in any way from the vaccines.

I don’t see how anything like that could ever possibly satisfy the most rabid^H^H^H^H^Henthusiastic of the anti-vaxers; they’d still argue that the independent researchers were in big pharma’s pocket, and as evidence, they’d present the complete lack of evidence (the hallmark of a successful conspiracy, after all, is that it leaves not the slightest trace).

Do you know of any studies like this?

It’s hard to find good help these days, especially if you’re looking for people with expertise who do not stand to profit in any way from applying that expertise. The protocols for clinical trials already include many safeguards designed to eliminate bias, but I think everybody agrees that there’s a lot of room for improvement. Not everybody agrees on exactly what improvement might consist of, however, or how it might be accomplished. It’s hard to see BARDA as a giant step in the right direction.

Leo7 – at 01:49

I used to believe the NIH was the last bastion where research was being carried out that wasn’t being micromanaged by PR drones. Unfortunately, there have been problems there too. When the NIH scientists and scientists at the FDA admit to being pressured and then the political appointees deny it, health care for everyone in US suffers.

Research requires money and the US govt. asked the pharmaceuticals to provide it and they did. The price is being paid now, they asked for the protections of BARDA (payback’s a b^&%ch!

Folks irate citizens have gotten the FDA and Congress to consider withdrawing a special regulation that allows testing of medications and products without informed consent on US citizens in emergencies. The PolyHeme study is the poster child for having research forced on people. http://tinyurl.com/mjqz6. BARDA can be repealed!

09 November 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:37

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Page last modified on November 09, 2006, at 08:37 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Making the Mail Safe

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Making the Mail Safe

03 September 2006

Chesapeake – at 09:14

30 minutes 60ºC (140.0ºF) (half hour at a temperature that causes first and second degree burns in humans in ten seconds) This info is from Wikipedia http://tinyurl.com/g45ld I’m thinking the oven. Some input would be helpful, most everyone gets mail.

Chesapeake – at 09:17

I started this because of the UV light thread, I for one need a less complicated way of dealing with this issue.

NJ Jeeper – at 09:19

Why can’t you let it bake in the sunlight for a day or so? Be sure to let it bake on both sides? Not an answer just a suggestion?

anon_22 – at 09:55

I wrote this a while back. See if you find it useful.


Steps to dealing with contaminated mail:

Equipment needed, to be used outside of the house eg on the porch:

1 PPE masks, gloves, etc,

and either

2 scanner connected through window to PC inside the house

or

3 fax machine connected to phone line

Now you are in business. Put on your PPE, go out on the porch and open the mail. Throw away all junk. Documents and letters that you need to keep or file, put them in a box and store them outside for a lengthy period of time. Mail that you need to respond to, either scan it to your pc or fax it to yourself. (For this you need 2 phone lines, and either another fax machine or pc to receive fax.) Store the original as above.

There may be times when it is necessary to use the original piece of paper for whatever response, eg forms to be filled in. Even these you can substitue with copies quite often and maybe submit the original at a later date.

NJ Jeeper – at 10:08

Very clever, I missed that idea. An even easier method as a take off, I have a combo printer/copier, so just copy the bills and no phone lines needed. But still if the virus dies after 2–3 days or less in heat, why not let them cure on the porch in the sun. Or driveway on the blacktop. Or just thow them all in a box and after a week, open them

Chesapeake – at 10:11

anon_22, thanks for that suggestion, can we get a little less complicated :-) something for “dummies”.

anon_22 – at 10:13

something for “dummies”.

Put them out on the porch, as NJ suggested.

I wrote this on a thread when peole were suggesting a lot more complicated deals. LOL. I myself am not that paranoid.

Medical Maven – at 10:14

Some of my old thoughts on this subject with no studies to back them up:

Use tongs to open the mail box and to remove the mail from the box. (Place tongs in bleach solution after use). Place the mail in a clear plastic tupperware on a metal grate suspended over a thin layer of pure bleach, and replace the clear lid on the tupperware, and then let it set for seven days in the sun. Then remove the mail with tongs and place on an ironing board and iron both sides to the point of browning. (Antique irons that can be heated on a wood stove or over a fire are still pretty cheap). Use disposable gloves to open the mail and to read the contents. Do this in the open air. Burn the mail after inspection. And after all that, still no guarantees. No studies.

You would be amazed at how many colds and flus you have contracted through your lifetime by just handling the mail that comes to your home. During cold and flu season I always wash my hands after handling the mail.

anon_22 – at 10:45

MM,

You kidding me? I don’t ever iron both sides of anything. In fact, I try not to iron any side at all. LOL

I guess I’m more of a tech geek than a housewife, eh?

Medical Maven – at 10:50

anon_22: Sheltering in place will provide a lot of time on our hands. The pleasures of ironing, even the mail, might be therapeutic. : )

Edna Mode – at 10:54

anon_22 – at 10:13 I myself am not that paranoid.

Thank god! I generally agree with and find much of value in your posts anon_22, but after reading the scanner/fax post, I was beginning to doubt my sanity and commitment to preparedness!

anon_22 – at 10:45 You kidding me? I don’t ever iron both sides of anything. In fact, I try not to iron any side at all. LOL

Now THIS I agree with!

Seriously though, refresh me: How long can the virus survive on surfaces? I’d just gather my mail (wash my hands well afterward) and leave it in a pile in the garage until X time had passed. Wouldn’t that work, too?

Gary Near Death Valley – at 11:11

the simple task I will use for the US mail is this. Using gloves will move the mail to a cardboard box labeled #1. Each day I will do the same thing, and when I get to day #6, will take the mail out of #1 and open it….as I live near Death Valley and the UV light is so high out here, with days of being in the sun, as well as the low humidity (the virus if there were any will have died by day number 5), then I will be able to open the mail. No bills have to be paid within 5 days so that is no problem,,,

Gary Near Death Valley – at 11:13

There was a study done on virus I remember with SARS and the virus can live on a plastic surface for up to a few days, and I would expect the same with this virus, although have not seen a study. If the surface is damp, of course will last longer so the time period should be adjusted for those areas with higher humidity. Out here heavens even I would not last two days without water.

anon_22 – at 11:15

Medical Maven – at 10:50

anon_22: Sheltering in place will provide a lot of time on our hands.

THAT is something that I’m seriously in doubt of. I can think of plenty of things that I don’t have to do now which will keep me very busy, like keeping stock, or making sure people don’t waste stuff.

It also tells me that you have limited experience of having a LARGE family living on top of each other, maybe? :-)

anon_22 – at 11:17

Viruses live longer on fabric than on smooth surfaces. I don’t have the exact info but I’m pretty sure that on fabric it can be more than a week. So it depends on what kind of paper or packaging you get.

Medical Maven – at 11:31

anon_22 at 11:15: Everybody should have a corner and their chores, however miniscule. A place (or corner) that they can call their own and “work” to give meaning to life will go a long way in lessening your anticipated difficulties. And if that doesn’t work, get out the plastic handcuffs. : )

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 11:39

Gary Near Death Valley – at 11:11 What will you do if it rains on your boxes? Or if you’re putting them on a porch, will that be too shaded?

Gary Near Death Valley – at 11:42

I have an extremely large porch area well away from the rain even with wind blowing. But like the pandemic that only comes once on average every 30 or so years,,,,a normal rain storm out here,,,,only comes very rarely. 99% of the time the sun is bright and the humidity is in single digit, which is why I never hike the desert in summer, and when I do in the fall and winter, have enough water on me to last a couple of days.

WordSmithat 11:45

Why can’t we just spray the mail thoroughly with Lysol spray? Seems a lot simpler.

NJ Jeeper – at 11:48

So, I am going to get the mail with latex gloves put it in a box on the back porch numbered 1- 6 and rotate my mail each day. Dispose of the gloves. If it rains, it will go into the garage in a box. I may, if bored, lay it out in the sun and let it bake on the back porch. Good ideas from all, not going to get too comlicated and this works for me. Reminds me of opening the mail with latex gloves during the anthrax days.

JV – at 11:51

anan_22 -

Here is a good article called “Transmission of Influenza: Implication for Control in Health Care Settings” It states on page 3:

“They showed that human influenza viruses could survive on a variety of surfaces at 35%−49% humidity and a temperature of 28%C. Both influenza A and B viruses were cultured from experimentally contaminated, nonporous surfaces, such as steel and plastic, up to 24–48 hours after inoculation, and from cloth, paper and tissues up to 8–12 hours after inoculation. However virusus could be recovered from hands for only 5 min and only if the hands were contaminated with a high viral titer. Viable virus could be transferred from nonporous surfaces to hands for 24 hours and from tissues to hands for 15 min.

http://tinyurl.com/ejxqx

I had thought that influenza virus would be viable for a longer period of time.

Kathy in FL – at 13:16

This is of course assuming that regular mail continues to run. My guess is if the pandemic gets that bad that only vital mail will be processed.

I know that bulk mail already gets put at the back of the line. I also know that in some locations, the postal service already has the ability to sanitize mail … not all locations though.

If anyone has contacts in the local postal services (national/international) find out if protocols are in place, will be put in place in the event of a pandemic, or are being created for a pandemic. Might prove enlightening.

Retired ParamedicMIat 13:18

You have too much time on your hands. What makes you think the mail will even be delivered? Does the post office know something we don’t about not getting infected? 40–50% no shows at work means the govt also. What mail carrier in his or her right mind is going to go out and go to work whan everybody else is told to stay at home.

 How will you know if your mail is disinfected? Really disinfected?

Just dont take it out of the box, and go about your life with one less worry. Life can be kept very simple.

Just because your phone rings doesn’t mean you have to pick it up. When someone you don’t know knocks on your door, you don’t have to open it.

anon_22 – at 13:19

JV – at 11:51

I had thought that influenza virus would be viable for a longer period of time.

I’m pretty sure from what I’ve read only recently that it’s a lot longer than that. I’ll have to check that sometime. Thanks!

gharris – at 13:24

What makes you guys think that there will even BE any mail???!!! Or postal employees to sort, deliver it??? It the grid goes down the sorting machines wont work - will there be anybody to fix them? Will postal workers show up to work anyway?? I dont think so! The only mail we will get is email. . . for as long as the grid or pc batteries hold out - and the sender has likewise!

gharris – at 13:27

or gasoline to power the mail trucks?? Or airplanes flying for overseas mail? I dont think so kids!!

Chesapeake – at 15:16

gharris-I have thought about it all, many times. I don’t know what is going to happen and neither do you. Just asking for some ideas. I could have done without yours.

Edna Mode – at 15:22

I’d love nothing more than to stop receiving mail! I can barely keep up with it as is.

I agree with all. Keep it simple. In a pandemic, it’s not like anyone is going to be processing much of anything to begin with. We are going to be so busy maintaining our basic living conditions, how many of us are even going to be thinking about mail.

Retired ParamedicMI, You are sooo right about not answering the phone/door. I just cancelled my call waiting and voicemail, and life is so much more peaceful! Everyone who really needs to reach me knows I answer e-mail quickly. And my cell is available to the people who REALLY need to reach me 24/7.

mj – at 15:30

I’ve given it some thought and like some of the ideas here, either for their brillance or their “make me chuckle” factor. I think the mail will be delivered for a time at least. Not everyone will be sick the first week, and many will go on about life as normal, because it’s “not in my town”. We don’t know when the bug is getting off the jet in which airport, and coming down our street. So mail delivery, UPS, Fedex, etc. will arrive at your door. I think we should be prudent, but not nuts. Pick your comfort zone and go for it. If the flu bites you anyway, you probably won’t know if it was the mail, the door handle you touched the day before, or the air someone sneezed in in the revolving door you went thru on Saturday. We should do our best, prepare for the worst and keep on living.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 15:40

Kathy in FL: My guess is if the pandemic gets that bad that only vital mail will be processed.

So Kathy, that would mean that I would certainly be receiving my mastercard bill. Yet another reason not to even take the mail from the box! :-)

informatic – at 15:53

the “kiss” principle

No mail, the safest mail… setup everything on line.

blackbird – at 16:07

No wait a minute, folks. All of this discussion has merit. If there’s no mail, then there’s no problem in how to get it, is there? If/while there is, how to get at is safely is worth a few pixels in the inter-space and a few minutes of reading/writing time. If nothing else, the info is pertinent to other media of germ delivery (i.e., sharing info on how long germs live on various types of surfaces).

new name – at 17:10

Another wild idea… Open the mail outside using your gloved hands. Have another person take a digital picture of it. Then you can read it inside using the camera.Just be certain that you take close-up snaps.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 17:23

You need to to consider an alternative way of payment, if the power goes out for a long time, if you’ve set up your bills online.

FrenchieGirlat 17:33

Kathy in FL – at 13:16 This is of course assuming that regular mail continues to run. My guess is if the pandemic gets that bad that only vital mail will be processed. I know that bulk mail already gets put at the back of the line. I also know that in some locations, the postal service already has the ability to sanitize mail … not all locations though. If anyone has contacts in the local postal services (national/international) find out if protocols are in place, will be put in place in the event of a pandemic, or are being created for a pandemic. Might prove enlightening.

The French Government Plan against an Avian Flu Pandemic has three measures to be put into place with regard to mail, during phases 5b and 6:

Dark Horse – at 17:47

Advertisers don’t advertise when it’s hard for people to buy, so 80% of the mail won’t be generated after a few weeks. One should get as many of their bills to pay online. If the Internet is down, the clerks in accounts receivable won’t be on the job anyway.

no name – at 18:00

If you are comfortable with on line banking you can set up automatic payments delivered to your creditors on an assigned day.

urdar-Norge – at 18:38

gasoline… I will just desinfect the hell out of it, right there in the mailbox, its only bills anyway >:D (evil grin)

04 September 2006

Bump – at 00:48
Anon in uk – at 01:56

As noname has just said 18.00 you can get set uos from your bank or direct debits for your bills.gas electric water telephone and credit cards you can either phone or use automated pay or on line facilities on secure sites we can in uk so presume that will go for you all.Just write a list get sorted out with everything then stay away from it making sure nothing falls on your hallway carpet or in america were outside boxes why not just leave it or dispose when safe use your masks and glove and box the lot. just a thought.

Anon in uk – at 02:18

on the mail subject if you get newspapers delivered cancel magazines etc as people get sick quick they may be ill at work.In uk papers sometimes get thrown in or at least directly posted.

pfwag – at 14:27

Set your mailbox on fire with the mail in it. In the US destroying mail or a mailbox (even if you paid for it) is a felony. That way the mail is disinfected, the prep bills are all destroyed, and you get to go to feferal prison where it is now the Govt’s resposibility to make sure you have Tamiflu.

Blue – at 15:50
 You’re joking- the prisoner’s are taking all the tamiflu?!!  
INFOMASS – at 19:40

If the electricity/gas is working, put the mail in a metal baking pan big enough to hold it and put it in a 160 degree (F) oven for 30 minutes. Keep paper away from flame/heating element. The heat will kill the virus and not burn the mail. (I assume the “extra” 20 degrees over the 140 needed to kill H5N1 will take care of incomplete heat transfer.) No jail and you can read your bills and credit card adverts. If the electricity is not working, will we be getting mail?

05 September 2006

anon_22 – at 19:53

I finally found the reference for how long the H5N1 virus can survive in the environment. The answer is - very long.

Highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza outbreaks in poultry and in humans: Food safety implications

“The virus can survive in faeces for at least 35 days at low temperature (4°C); while at 37°C, viruses could survive for 6 days in stability tests on faecal samples in studies using H5N1 viruses circulating during 2004. Avian influenza viruses can also survive on surfaces, such as those within the poultry house environment, for several weeks.”

anon_22 BUMP for attention – at 21:20

06 September 2006

Bump - Bronco Bill – at 00:49

09 November 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:35

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.MakingTheMailSafe
Page last modified on November 09, 2006, at 08:35 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Trailer Trash Talk

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Trailer Trash Talk

03 September 2006

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 17:50

OK, I’ll get to the trailer talk in just a minute…….I drive a regular car — a LaSabre — not a big truck or SUV, just a simple LaSabre. If I were to want (or need) to vacate our location and go camping, with our 10′ emergency tent, our camp loo and all it’s toilet paper, our cooking supplies & water, etc, not to mention our 5 cat carriers which fit nicely in my back seat, once the cats are in place, I’m out of room so everything else I’d take would have to go in my husband’s Jeep Cherokee and if he weren’t available, I’d be screwed!

So I was thinking I would get my husband a trailer hitch for some present — maybe Christmas, or get a trailer hitch to go on my car (wouldn’t THAT look funny). But as I said, once the cats are in place with their BOB which includes food & heavy kitty litter & a big litterbox, everything else would need to go in DH’s jeep. Now for the 2 of us that’s OK, but it would push the limit of space, especially with rigid water containers along with my collapsable ones, whether empty or not. But if my brother & SIL were to need to go with us, they’d be able to take their one car with their stuff, but we’d need to take more food so more space would be helpful. This is the way my thoughts are running……

I need a trailer — one of those lawn equipment trailers or something like that so we could load stuff on it, hitch it up & haul it behind us. That would also keep my fuel duffles from being packed inside a car that could get very hot….not a good idea, as far as I’m concerned.

OR a much more likely event would be if we had a situation where garbage pickup were to fail us and we needed to haul our garbage off to some disposal location, I certainly wouldn’t want to put that in our LaSabre or Jeep!

I’ve looked some online & in my Northern Tool catalog (I just love that catalog) and they have blueprints to make a trailer, but I’m thinking more along the lines of finding a used one somewhere, since honestly, it’s something that I hope I don’t ever have to use and it just rubs me the wrong way to spend hundreds on something I may never use. Somehow it’s not so bad on the millions of smaller preps I buy that I may never use, but a expensive trailer……..well, that would hurt. I don’t want to look like the Beverly Hillbillies riding down the road, and a trailer would help keep stuff off the top of our car (although I DO have a car top canvas carrier, but neither of us have those braces on top of the car to mount stuff to-we used it once & had to brace it through the windows which made for a noisy ride from Alabama to Arkansas!)

I’ve seen new trailers around town, but heck, they’re $300+. I’ve looked on ebay off and on for months, but have never really found anything cheap enough and close enough to make it worthwhile. I need something bigger than those garden shop wagons, but not much larger than one that would hold a riding lawn mower.

Should I just get the blueprints & make one, since I’d still have to be buying the metal framing kit (and I think it was close to $1000), or is there a brand I could look for online or in town for an economical one? Is there an industry that uses small trailers that’s not occured to me to check out that I could stalk until I find a company that’s willing to sell one of theirs cheap? Lawn maintenance companies seem to be the most prevalant use at the moment. Would a motorcycle trailer do me any good — I just thought of that while I was typing & don’t even know what one looks like……..

Any ideas??

spiritinthewind – at 18:01

well…having your preps trailing behind your car would most likely put you in a dangerous position. It would be SO easy to rob you at a stop light or while you are on a bathroom break on your way to where ever.

Unless you plan on bugging out way before the general population knows what is happening, I truly fear for your safety and well being under that scenerio. You may want to re-think this.

Spirit

Bronco Bill – at 18:04

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 17:50 --- Take a look at JC Whitney’s site SoftSide luggage rack.

You can get a Class I under-bumper hitch installed that is made for your car…check out U-Haul. I have a Jeep Grand Cherokee and installed a Class III hitch about 6 years ago…I’ve pulled boats and large trailers with it without too much trouble.

Making your own trailer can be quite a bit of work…then you have to get it licensed by your state’s Dept. of Motor Vehicles. You might be better off buying a pre-made trailer frame w/ tires and fitting your own plywood flooring and sides to it.

Bronco Bill – at 18:07

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 17:50 --- Something else to consider would be to mount matching trailer hitches on both vehicles…that way, either vehicle could pull the same trailer…Get a hitches that are rated for the lower-towing-capacity vehicle…

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 18:10

Yeah, I know and like I said, this is last resort planning. But it could be that for some reason our neighborhood had to be evacuated for a gas leak or some other reason that would force us to leave without a pandemic. My plan, should some wind damage ever happen to the condo, was to have the tent & set it up on the little strip of land behind our condo & ‘camp out’ there while repairs to the house were being done — that way we’d be close at hand to keep an eye on things, but I would be able to keep the cats confined safely rather than having them climb up the tree that fell through our roof & get out unattended. But if we had to leave then I’d want as much of my preps with me as possible, disquised in garbage bags or whatever, and with our gun(s), which I need money to buy another one so that’s another reason why I don’t want to pay a lot for a trailer — gotta buy the hitch too and that’s costly!

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 18:14

Bronco Bill – at 18:04 yep, that’s exactly the type of luggage carrier we have that we’ve used once. I hope to eventually have a hitch on both cars, and need to try to get one that’s as ‘universal’ as possible because we’re bad about hanging onto our cars (mine’s a 1996 or so I think) and my DH’s jeep will just be paid off in Nov and he’ll have it awhile, but you never can tell about my car & should we trade, I’d want something that could be mounted on some different type of larger than mid-size car. Do they even make something that’s sorta generic like that or would we end up buying a different trailer hitch when we got a different car?

Bronco Bill – at 18:29

You’d probably end up buying a new hitch, unless you got the same style car…and even then, the frame configuration could change. IF you went from your current Buick, to let’s say, a Chevy or Ford, you’d definitely have to get a new hitch installed. It used to be that you could buy a hitch that just hung on the back bumper, but that was before the auto makers replaced the solid steel, “un-breakable” bumpers with the “safer, softer, consolidated” plastic bumpers

Urdar-Norway – at 19:50

Realy dont know your country, but do you need all that water? Get a filter and only have some water for a few days drinking only. And the camp loo? Dig a hole in the ground, a spade takes much less place. that was my two cent ;) but i only got one cat ;)

Tall in MS – at 21:57

I’d suggest keeping an eye on the “used” market like your local paper’s classified section. I found a utility trailer really cheap about five years ago and bought it on a lark. I had no plans to use it. It has been heavily used ever since: moving my new wife from one end of the state to the other, hauling away hurricane debris, taking riding mowers and other vehicles to the repair shop (mine is a 16′ with ramps). Family borrows my trailer regularly. It’s handier than a pocket on a shirt.

To address security concerns, I’d suggest a good heavy duty tarp to cover your goodies. Folks might not be as tempted by your stuff if they don’t have a clue what it is. But, don’t be tempted by the cheap discount store tarps. A few miles on the highway can turn them into tattered shreds. I found a one that has served me well at Tractor Supply.

A storage spot for the trailer can also be a concern, especially for city dwellers. Remember that a trailer kills one good parking space.

nopower – at 21:58

I’ve been ebay browsing Airstream trailers in need of work lately. For the price that I would pay for a new enclosed hauling trailer here in S. Florida I could probably pickup a good size AS that pulls straight and hopefully doesn’t leak.

Obviously you are looking for something small but consider that you are talking about caravanning 2 to 3 cars incase of a bugout when you could possibly hook up a travel trailer to the Jeep and be down the road.

My ideal bugout (if I decided to do that), would be a travel trailer setup and loaded with my preps. Hauled by a cargo van holding all my passengers, additional preps, and extra fuel. At the moment, I’m planning to stand my ground here, we’ll see if that changes as time goes by.

Tall in MS – at 22:10

nopower – at 21:58

They’re not Airstreams, but the Government Services Administration is selling used travel trailers online. These are largely units that have been returned after disasters and have over $1500 in damages. Some are really trashed. Some are pretty nice.

Look under the “Trailers and Tractors” link. You search the sales by state and new sales show up very regularly.

It’s here: http://gsaauctions.gov/gsaauctions/gsaauctions/

anon mc – at 22:19

For space saving, you may also want to consider ditching the kitty litter and putting a little real dirt in the cat box. It is likely that they would use it since indoor cats like to pretend they are in the wild, the new smell may give them some needed releif form the stress of moving and confinement, etc. and you will eventually run out of litter and likely resort to this at some point anyway. Just make sure that you get it from a “clean” area, as in no visible bird/dog/cat/other animal poop mixed in it and see if your vet will provide you with some “hurricane or other disaster” de-worming products (and maybe some flea products, too) Good Luck with your cats. Nice to see responsible pet ownership!

anon mc – at 23:17

Do take SOME kitty litter, however. Best to make sure it is from the box(es) that the cats have been using as the smell will be familiar while you make the switch-over. Also, if you have one particularly finicky cat, it may take them awhile to adjust. Just don’t take a car-load. There are more important things—like baby food if you have a cat that refuses to eat for a time due to stress. Don’t forget the catnip!

preppiechick – at 23:56

Be VERY careful who installs your hitch. We had a large, reputable company install a hitch, with electric plugs, on our car. Three years later, our car caught fire and turns out it was a bad installation job. (yes, they paid for it, but it was very inconvenient to try and replace a great, paid for volvo wagon and be one car short until we found a replacement, which btw was a used jeep!) Even though my large suv is killing me in the gas department(double the cost from when I bought it, though thankfully it has gone down this week!) I’m still holding on to it because I keep thinking that it’s a great “camper” with a security system,lots of room for 100# dog and preps, blacked out windows, 4×4, satellite phone and radio,tv and uses flex fuel. Well, at least that is what I keep telling myself…. :)

04 September 2006

On the fence – at 00:19

Another option: If you know where you are bugging to, you may want to consider investing in a storage unit in that town.

Bump – at 00:45
I’m-workin’-on-it – at 06:38

Thanks for all the comments and ideas; this is just the kind of info I need! I wasn’t very hopeful about building our own & probably checking yard sales & our free trade magazines might be the best approach, as well as keeping an eye on the gov’t site for many useful things!

10 years ago, my plan was to pack up and go to my parent’s house in the northern part of our state (I’m in the middle) which would work for anything except a nuke problem since they lived nearer a nuke plant than we do.

Then my plan, when my parents moved to my town, was that if anything happened to their residence they could come stay with us for awhile or if something happened to ours to make us leave our building, we’d have a tent that we could pitch either in our little back yard area if it was just some contained damage to our condo (and the tent may even be bigger than that little piece of earth) or the golf course green below us.

If we had to get farther away from our condo, due to wide spread storm damage, then we could go to the local state park about 20 miles down the road (phone number & hours of operation, etc, on my emergency phone list) and hopefully pitch our tent which is why at that point, we’d take several empty collapsable water containers with us and probably use the soft-side luggage carrier on top to carry them. All of this assuming the ‘disaster was over’ & we could return to our home in a few days.

Now parentless, if I had to go farther away than locally, I’d have a chance to pitch a tent about an hour away on my brother’s mountaintop property in the country. There’s not much water on-site, but a big low area on the entrance road that puddles so badly right now I could get muddy water from there. We have a Berkefeld water filter so I could use ditch mud and filter it if that’s all the water we could find (God forbid that happen), but it’s such a great filter, we’d probably be OK, if we could find some sort of water source.

If we had to leave so fast that we didn’t get to take the Berkefeld with us, I have Daytek water packets in each of our bug-out bags including the cats’ bag, so if we can’t take containers with us, as long as we have our bag or bags we’d survive a couple of days on that water.

I vaguely thought that if we had to travel elsewhere(before my brother bought his land)we’d try to go to a Motel 6 or a Residence Inn somewhere — they routinely take in pets so they’re on my list. I keep a phonebook in my car trunk so I’d be able to call ahead for reservations, assuming they would honor reservations after a disaster. Anyway, it’s weak, but that was the best, most ‘useful’ plan I had.

Honestly until On the fence – at 00:19 made the comment above about investing in a storage unit in another town I hadn’t worked on that long-distance plan any more than that. The comment did reawaken my brain to the need to consider re-adjusting a plan for dealing with having to go a longer distance away than I’d originally planned. It sort of shook my brain awake on that issue again.

We have other state parks in the state, or we have family in a small town in Tennessee and in urban Georgia, neither of which seems ideal to me, just because both are so urban; their only redeeming quality is that they’re more than an hour away! :-) I’ll start brainstorming that issue again for some alternatives.

I did mention taking the rigid sided water containers in the Jeep, but I bought those for use at home rather than for traveling & I guess they would be a final resort when packing the car, depending on space, time to pack, etc.

As for my kids — I mean the cats — I have one 25 lb. box of litter for them in their bug-out bag (figuring if we’re in a tent we’d have their pan set up & one or the other of our loos, one a true camp toilet & one a bucket & a seat where we’d use kitty litter too), and a military folding shovel for when we run out of that kitty litter and have to dig dirt! I also have their first-aid kit & 3 cat first-aid books that cover different sorts of things. Then there’s their leashes, their dry catfood which I vacuum sealed & I rotate out periodically along with some canned food for them AND baby food — an amazing & useful addition if having to give them medicine or just if they need a treat! I have a cute & serviceable collapsable canvas pet food container that zips shut once you’ve opened the vacuum-sealed food, and the bottom of it can hold water. You can unzip it into 2 pieces so food & water can sit side by side, or you can zip it all up & carry it safely all closed up.

Oh and back to my trailer issue, we have 2 little storage units that we rent here at our condo community — not sealed from bugs, but at least not out in the open. We keep extra Christmas stuff in them, and more of my prep supplies. We rented them to have room to store house stuff when we do various remodeling projects & had to have a place to store things. I figured I’d get an all metal trailer so I didn’t have to worry about the bugs that eat through wood, and I could maybe stand the thing up on it’s end, if that didn’t hurt the taillights & height was reasonable, and store it in one of those units, or just push it in & store stuff on top of it, like our insulated coolers, etc.

I’ve rambled too long — sorry. But you’ve given me several things to think about & some more knowledge about trailers than I need in order to make a good decision about how to carry some of our stuff.

I will say that now that I’ve finally gotten the basics together, my goal is to shrink the bulk of our BOB’s as well as any gear we carry to more manageable size. For instance like pack LESS clothing (have both summer & winter packed) by purchasing some disposable travel undergarments (from Magellean’s) that are less bulky than men’s folded up shorts, and shrinking equipment - we have an old wind up Freeplay shortwave radio for the house that’s BIG. They make smaller ones, & I want to invest in that.

I also keep a cigarette lighter inverter & a wind-up solar radio in the car trunk, but broke one of the knobs off the radio recently & need to replace it, so I may get a wind-up that’s smaller & also charges cell phones. Considering the sidewinder but need to confirm adaptors will fit my phone and the list gives my phone, but not my model number so must check with the company to be sure.

I hope that we don’t ever have to bug out somewhere, but my plan is, when it gets cooler weather, to take our BOB’s and pack the cars with the cat carriers, the BOB’s etc, to see exactly what all we can realistically carry so I’ll know in advance how much to trim down!

I hope that if we use a trailer it would be for hauling lumber from Home Depot for a new remodeling project, or at worst to haul trash to some distant location.

Thanks again for all your input, and if others have some ideas, please let them flow.

Kim – at 08:31

Check out a trailer made from the bed of an otherwise wrecked/salvage pickup truck. I believe they basically just cut the front end (cab on forward) off the truck and weld on a towing hitch. Sorry I can’t explain it better than that, but I’ve seen plenty of them around and figure they must not be too expensive.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 23:08

That’s an interesting idea too! I’m considering everything anyone has mentioned — thanks & hope you all had a safe Labor Day!

09 November 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:35

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Secrets of the Great Plague on Discovery Channel

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Secrets of the Great Plague on Discovery Channel

28 August 2006

aurora – at 22:12

Secrets of the Great Plague is on the Diiscovery Health Channel 10pm EDT

It appears to be not just an examination of the plague but why some survived and whether we can extrapolate info about them that could help us with today’s infectious diseases.

aurora – at 22:21

darn. Can’t figure out how to put title on post. Is there any way to fix it now that I’ve already posted it?

silversage – at 22:40

Ask the mods to fix the title.

p.s. this will be on again at midnight EST.

Many Cats – at 22:50

Could someone post a summary of the major points so that those of us without television can find out what was concluded? Thanks!!

pogge – at 23:03

bump

silversage – at 23:05

Sorry, it’s on again at midnight Central US time not EST.

anonymous – at 23:16

http://tinyurl.com/c6an

This is a link about the doctor and his research concerning the plague, and how survivors of the plague(from the 1600s) carry a Delta 32 gene that protected them, and how it affects HIV today. The TV show briefly mentions BF. It suggests that identifying the genetic mutation in survivors may lead to medications that will prevent or lesson illnesses like BF.

04 September 2006

pjdazsi@comcast.net – at 18:15

I may be one of those people with the delta 32 gene. As a child I had the smallpocks vaxcine 3 different time’s and they never took and I was told that I would have been one of those people who didn’t get the disease. I saw this show and it was the first time I really understood what the Dr. had said to me many years ago. I would like to know if Dr. Steven O’Brian is still doing any research and how I might contact him.

Chesapeake – at 18:59

pjdazsi- is this him http://tinyurl.com/orz3j

09 November 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:34

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Mild Pandemics

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Mild Pandemics

04 September 2006

anonymous – at 11:06

Tom DVM – at 10:23 (News Reports for Sept 4)

I would have put this post into a new thread topic but I am not very good with computers so I will put it here instead and if someone feels it is important enough for a general discussion then they can put it up as a new thread topic. Thanks.

I have been trying to read The Great Influenza by John M. Barry. On page 216 last night, I came across a ‘funny’ piece of information.

“During and after the 1889–90 influenza pandemic-with the exception of 1918–19, the most severe influenza pandemic in the last three centuries-he (Dr. Richard Pfeiffer) had searched for the cause.”

This statement was a two by four up the side of my head…

…because in his May 2005 article in the New England Journal of Medicine, Dr. Osterholm stated that the 1918 pandemic should not be considered an outlier or a fluke because the pandemic of 1830–32 had been as bad or worse than 1918…

…If the above statement is factual then we may have to change our whole mindset about the inherent virulence of influenza pandemics…

…the 1957 and 1968 pandemics may indeed be the exception rather than the rule…and the norm is high virulence pandemics rather than mild pandemics…****!!!!!!

Tom DVM – at 11:14

anonymous. Thanks.

Eccles – at 11:20

Tom -

One thing I would like to mention about going too far back in history is that folks often assumed diseases were what they though, based on the presentation. So, if for instance, a disease presented as a major gastorintestinal illness, I suspect that it would have been called Cholera. On the other hand, we are learning that influenza can present in numerous ways, including some that aren’t normally ascribed to flu.

With that in mind, I point your attention to this site:

1832 Cholera Epidemic

I sugest you look through it, especially the timeline of epidemics the author presents, and see whether some of what has been ascribed to other causes may actually also be pointers to pandemic influenza.

As you know, I’m not a “Med Head”, so I would appreciate feedback from someone more knowledgeable than myself

Tom DVM – at 11:24

Eccles. I agree…a good dose of skepticism is always a good thing…

…but from my reading of John Barry, it appears the scientists were quite sophisticated and more importantly…

…I trust Dr. Osterholm as a source and I am quite sure that if he said the 1983 oubreak was influenza in a ‘peer reviewed’ medical journal of the stature of the New England Journal of Medicine…then I assume he will be right.

Tom DVM – at 11:25

Sorry, should have been 1830 outbreak…it is amazing how easy mistakes can be seen right after hitting the post button…oh well!!

Anon_451 – at 11:27

Eccles – at 11:20 You have said something that I have been thinking about for a while. I think we need History lover and a few others in here on this one. Through out history, wars have ended, civilizatons have fallen and times have gotten really tough all due to “The Plague”. We wost likely could never prove it, but I have been wounder how many of “The Plague” out breaks in history were really influenza, and not the plague.

That would shead a whole new light on the threat and effects.

Eccles – at 11:30

Tom- What I was gettng at was the other way ‘round. I note in the site I referenced a description by Heinrich Heine of the Cholera Epidemic of Paris (1832):

On March 29th, the night of mi-careme, a masked ball was in progress, the chabut in full swing. Suddenly, the gayest of the harlequins collapsed, cold in the limbs, and, underneath his mask, ‘violet-blue’ in the face. Laughter died out, dancing ceased, and in a short while carriage-loads of people were hurried from the redoute to the Hotel Dieu to die, and to prevent a panic among the patients, were thrust into rude graves in their dominoes. Soon the public halls were filled with dead bodies, sewed in sacks for want of coffins. Long lines of hearses stood en queue outside Pere Lachaise. Everybody wore flannel bandages. The rich gathered up their belongings and fled the town. Over 120,000 passports were issued at the Hotel de Ville.

While I’m no medical expert, the collapsing victim cited sounds, to me, more like a 1918 style influenza. Wouldn’t cholera have resulted in violent nausea and diarrhea, not suddenly collapsing dead with a blue face?

Tom DVM – at 11:32

anon 451. I am not sure if you were with us in the winter or not but Clark from New Zealand is our resident expert on plagues and influenza. I believe he has decided to take some time off form flu wiki but when he comes back…grab him and get his opinion.

I agree with you on the importance of these questions and I would welcome the input of History Lover…but it becoming very clear that either John Barry made a mistake or we have to correct our thinking on some things…I am sure Dr. Osterholms and his peer reviewers are not wrong about 1980.

Maybe Dem or annon or Melanie can put the exact quote from the May 2005 article about 1830 on this thread. Thanks.

anonymous – at 12:00

according to
http://www.andypryke.com/pub/InfluenzaPandemic
there were only about 1 million deaths in the 1830 pandemic. Maybe Osterholm had meant USA-only or such, I don’t know. But I did observe Osterholm earlier of manipulating the wording to support his claims. He also sticks on this “not if but when”, probably meaning _any_ pandemic but apparantly enjoying the audience thinking he meant H5N1.

anon_22 – at 12:30

Tom DVM,

Slightly off topic.

If you want to start a new thread, go look up the side bar, click on Discussion Forum. On that page, you will see a box that says (inside the box) create new topic, and a box that says ‘Go’.

Click inside the ‘create new topic’ box, NOT the ‘Go’ box. You will find the content of that box miraculously emptying so you can enter the title of the new thread that you want to start.

AFTER you’ve entered the title, then click Go. You will find yourself looking at a very familiar page like this current one except no one else has posted anything yet and you’re the first one!

Then write your (virgin) post and off you go….

anon_22 – at 12:38

Again slightly off topic, on the subject of the 1889 pandemic, we now have indications that it was an H3 virus, but one which is significantly different from the current circulating H3N2. This is from the work of Taubenberger at NIH who is currently trying to sequence fragments from autopsy samples pre-1918. Last I heard, they found several tissue samples with fragments of which at least 3 are clearly identifiable as H3.

Seeing as there are at least 16 HA subtypes, but only H1 H2 and H3 have infected humans in the last 100+ years, is there any reason why certain subtypes are more likely to infect humans than others? That’s a question that I would like an answer to, among many.

And if an H3 virus was the circulating human strain preceding the pandemic of 1918, just like today, is that a coincidence or is there anything significant about that?

Sure would like to have JKT’s answer or hypothesis about that…..

Tom DVM – at 13:11

anon 22 Thanks. I clicked the go box and wasn’t sure after that. /:0)

Leo7 – at 13:12

Eccles at 11;20:

Thanks for the link. It’s difficult for me to believe a man with cholera could dance all night. The diarrhea is crippling. I think it’s safe to say there is and was a lot of misdiagnosis. Think Chinese soldier diagnosed with SARS instead of H5N1. My personal thoughts are epidemics be they viral or bacterial seem to have combination kick off events in the old days. Now we have antibiotics so it’s only the viral epidemics to worry about, x out the ones covered by effective vaccines and what remains are what I think of as super bugs, HIV, Hep C, MRSA. As soon as we invent a vaccine or medication there is mutation. I don’t think there will ever be a disease free society.

anon_22 – at 13:13

If you click the Go box before you enter the title of your thread, you will have created a new thread called ‘Create New Topic’.

Which is fine. We’ve all done that before.

Just yell for a mod and we will delete it.

LOL

Tom DVM – at 13:14

gs Thanks.

annon 22. Would you by any chance, have the article of Dr. Osterholm’s from the May 2005 NEJM. If so, could you insert the quote. I might have it somewhere and will look for it also. Thanks.

anon_22 – at 13:20

“An influenza pandemic has always been a great global infectious-disease threat. There have been 10 pandemics of influenza A in the past 300 years. A recent analysis showed that the pandemic of 1918 and 1919 killed 50 million to 100 million people, 1 and although its severity is often considered anomalous, the pandemic of 1830 through 1832 was similarly severe — it simply occurred when the world’s population was smaller. Today, with a world population of 6.5 billion — more than three times that in 1918 — even a relatively “mild” pandemic could kill many millions of people.”

Preparing for the Next Pandemic, Michael T. Osterholm, Ph.D., M.P.H.

anon_22 – at 13:21

Was that fast enough service for you? LOL

Tom DVM – at 13:27

“An influenza pandemic has always been a great global infectious-disease threat. There have been 10 pandemics of influenza A in the past 300 years. A recent analysis showed that the pandemic of 1918 and 1919 killed 50 million to 100 million people,1 and although its severity is often considered anomalous, the pandemic of 1830 through 1832 was similarly severe — it simply occurred when the world’s population was smaller. Today, with a world population of 6.5 billion — more than three times that in 1918 — even a relatively “mild” pandemic could kill many millions of people.”

anon 22 I tip my crooked hat to you!! /:0) or is that hair…I’m not sure.

Tom DVM – at 13:28

OOPS!! /:0)

Northstar – at 14:19

Anon 451: Historically, it can be very difficult to determine what a plague actually was because from what I understand, when an illness enters a naive population, it can present with symptoms entirely different from what is usually seen. I belive when smallpox entered the Pacific Islands, it presented more as a tubercular illness — nothing like the skin leisons usually seen. I remember thinking how very strange that was. I checked a few indexes of the books on my shelf for that particular reference but couldn’t find it offhand. I’ll keep looking.

In addition, there are plagues that resemble no other illness - the “Picardy Sweats” is one example. It hit with its own set of distinctive symptoms but then vanished, never to be seen in history again. Nobody knows what it could have been.

I did think, in reading Defoe’s _Journal of a Plague Year_ that they were dealing with more than one illness. One, with the buboes, plainly plague — another with another set of symptoms, infectious from person to person while the first was asymptomatic, and without the typical buboes seen, only damage to internal organs. They also seemed to think that it infected chickens, (!) in fact, one of the tests to see if one had the infection before it became symptomatic was to breathe on a chicken to see if it became ill or died. This second version of “plague” was seen as the deadlier of the two, and death was very quick — people well in the morning dropping dead in the marketplace in the afternoon.

That to me sounded suspiciously like AI.

Another epidemic illness that is currently thought to have been infectious hepatitis is referenced in my old thread: _America’s 90% CFR_ (Or something like that.)

So the upshot is, yes, I think that previous flus could have been “plagues.”

09 November 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:33

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Any Anti-Bird Flu Products II

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Any Anti-Bird Flu Products II

01 September 2006

Bronco Bill – at 00:31

Continued from here


pfwag – at 21:10

BB: what are the chances for anything to work against H5N1? Other than Sambucol and a Sanyo(?) air purifier, I know of no other products that have actually been tested against H5N1. Given the facts that the death rate is currently a bit on the high side and that there is no viable treatment or cure for H5N1, the published statement of two MDs saying that CS cures BF should be worth discussing, ESPECIALLY on a FLU Wikie forum.

Dennis in CO: I have no absolute data on the maximum size but anything below a few hundred nanometer doesn’t appear to get stuck in the skin. What you want, however, is CS down in the 10 nanometer or below size. The “why” is the number of particles and absorbability. Some CS mfrs talk a lot about surface area but I view that as secondary. If you have a lot of small particle you will have a large surface area. I would have to look up the accurate numbers but a bee-bee size piece of silver in a gallon of water is equivalent to something like 10ppm but you only have one silver particle. If you break up that silver into 1nm pieces you now have something on the order of 9E19 particles resulting in a teaspoon of the CS having about as many silver particles as the human body has cells (~5E16). That is what you want for fighting pathogens. Lots of small particles circulating in your body. Also, the small particles are better absorbed resulting in more of them getting in your circulatory system rather than passing through and doing nothing but making more expensive pee.


Dennis in Colorado – at 23:26

pfwag – at 21:10 Other than Sambucol and a Sanyo(?) air purifier, I know of no other products that have actually been tested against H5N1.

Has Sambucol been tested against H5N1? I’ve seen several studies of its efficacy in “normal” influenza, but not one specific to H5N1.

Allquietonthewesternfront – at 02:03

Sauerkraut has. It was some place like Wisconsin and was only on chickens with BF.

pfwag – at 03:51

Dennis in CO: Sambucol was tested in vitro at a lab in the UK against H5N1. I have the link on my work computer if nobody else can provide it. While anecdotal, we have maybe 6 incidents where it appears to work very good at helping to stop and cure colds and the regular flu, although in most of those situations we used CS too. Depending on where in CO you are, there was a nasty flu strain going around a few months ago. My son, in Arvada, caught it and went from feeling bad to laid out flat with a 105 fever in a little over a day. My wife went over with the Sambucol and CS and poured both down him. She took both as well as a prophylactic. When she felt like she was coming down with it she added nebulized CS. Anyway, my son was completely better in two days and my wife never came down with it at all. As further “proof” we moved from Hawaii to CO 30 years ago because my wife had so many URTIs in Hawaii. She still catches everything that goes around but we have been using CS for about the last 6–7 years and she is sick no were near as bad or for as long as she was before taking CS. Now with the Sambucol added it seems like it is even less but impossible to quantify so still anecdotal.

Allquietonthewesternfront - link? Having once worked in a building where many of the assembly line workers ate kim chee I wouldn’t be surprised if it killed H5N1. The stuff practically drove all the non-kim chee eaters out of the building.

INFOMASS – at 07:18

There was a discussion on Sambucol last year on FW with some arguing for caution in using it on H5N1 and some arguing that it had a number of anti-flu properties and the cytokine stimulation was not the strongest. The pro faction said that combining curcumin (slows down cytokines) with Sambucol would take care of any likely problem. An in vitro test does not involve cytokines, so cannot be regarded as conclusive. Most helpful would be tests in mice or other mammals. I am unsure about the advisability of using Sambucol.

pfwag – at 10:05

INFOMASS: we have decided that for H5N1 we will use it as a prophylactic, similar to the 6 week “before” Tamiflu regimine, and then, should anyone get BF, cease and switch over to cytokine suppressing agents while simultaneously increasing other anti-virals. Unfortunately I do not know what the residual lag will be so maybe curcumin will take care of that. I hear you on the in vitro test but at least it showed that it has strong anti-viral properties against H5N1 and is a starting point for demonstrating its effectiveness. Isn’t that how it is supposed to be done when a drug is targeting a specific pathogen? That has always been one of my biggest problem with Tamiflu. With all the $Billions being purchased, can’t Roche afford to do a simple in vitro test so that we can at least be sure Tamiflu actually kills the stuff we are spending $Billions to kill? An in vitro test has got to be cheaper than testing on a few lab rats. And a whole lot quicker to do.

RPh – at 10:29

re: plasma nebulizers

In vitro and in vivo are VERY different things. If you spray the virus with a 70% alcohol solution, it will die. If you wash your hands that have been “infested” with the virus, chances are many are still alive.

That’s the big problem with the nature of business. Companies are able to make very convincing claims, without actually lying, but without actually delivering results.

It’s not a matter of saying it WON’t work, I never did say that (because nobody knows). I do think that it has a LOW PROBABILITY of working simply from logical reasoning. The purifier can only handle x amount of air at a time over any given period. The remainder of the air is free to “remix” and become re-infested via the host. I suggest that while the viral load may be reduced is it worth the extra costs that could be allocated more effectively (food storage, medicines, etc.)?

Regarding statins, I for one will NOT be taking them (unless of course my LDL rises to gravy levels). Way too many side effects that are not apparent without regular monitoring of blood work.

I am not relying on Tamiflu as a saviour. I will likely take it if I become ill, as Tamiflu HAS been shown effective IN VIVO for regular flu strains, and it is presumed that H5N1 will likely have similar antigenic properties to “regular” flu viruses should it mutate to a pandemic strain.

I will not waste my money on products that don’t make sense though. Incense, nebulizers, air purifiers… or food on the table. Choice is easy.

INFOMASS – at 12:17

I never quite understood the Tamiflu skepticism. It seems to invalidate the H5N1 tests (as discussed in FW) by depressing the H5N1 viral count so low that it cannot be measured. People with H5N1 who take it early seem to get better, as in Turkey. But I think that double blind tests in mice would be preferable to this empiricism. There is also the issue of resistance, which only underlines the need for multiple approaches from hygiene to social distancing to treatment of secondary diseases.

pfwag – at 13:11

RPh: purifier? I’m not sure of what you are talking about or your specific point. Please clarify or elaborate. BTW, taking Tamiflu after being infected is mostly a waste of money. See the links to the studies in my posting noted below. Tamiflu works more efficiently when taken at or soon after being infected but the problem for most of us is how do we know when we were infected? By the time the symptoms start showing up we have mostly missed the window. At least for the first person in your family/house. It is even worse when using Tamiflu for a prophylatic where it appears to be very effective (against regular influenza any way). How do you know 6 weeks before you will be infected?

INFOMASS: maybe it has something to do with all the money being spent and here we are some 1–2 years later and those tests still haven’t been done. A few rats can’t be that expensive. One would think that one would want some proof of effectiveness before buying a few $Billion of the stuff. Oh well, it is only tax dollars…. In any case, I posted all my thoughts on Tamiflu, good, bad, and conspiritorial with links to all the major studies (that I know of anyway) at http://www.arielco.us/page8.html Let me know what you think. It would appear that the only currently available medical solution that will have a positive affect on the outcome is to get a PPV23.

I’m going for the shotgun approach with the hope that one or two pellets kill the stuff. The only problem is what all the pellets should be which is back to one of RPh’s points.

RPh – at 13:53

A previous poster was commenting with regards to plasma air purifiers to essentially irradiate the virus. This works great in theory as “all” (sic) the viruses that pass through the plasma field should indeed be killed (incidentally UV, alcohol, bleach should accomplish the same results). The problem becomes ensuring all of the viruses in the room go through the plasma field, which is relatively contained. That’s what ain’t gonna happen.

Tamiflu has a modestly good track record against seasonal flu (about 60–70%) when taken within 72 hours of onset of symptoms (note: NOT onset of infection - like H5N1, influenza A also incubates while the patient is asymptomatic). Should H5N1 acquire other traits of the regular flu, I would expect a similar cure rate (60–70%), when taken within 72 hours of onset - that’s the key that has not been happening in the bulk of the cases. Billions have already been spent on Tamiflu to express its effectiveness against regular flu strains. There is no scientific model in place to test it agianst H5N1. Such testing would require deliberate infection of at least human-like species (e.g. monkeys, pigs) to demonstrate effectiveness in humans. Do you want them doing that right now?

Agreed that a pneumococcal vaccine is a good idea (if your immune system is competent, it is a once in a lifetime experience).

One big problem with a “shotgun approach” is potential side effects/adverse reactions. Given the limited number of products that have shown any promise, maybe only choose 1 or 2 “pellets”.

Allquietonthewesternfront – at 14:00

Last winter there was a lot of discussion here about Oil of Oregano so anyone interested could look that up. I googled and found tons of stuff on it. Below is a portion of a great article from a consumerhealth organization and they are not selling anything. Coincidentally, at my boys’ football game last night, a good friend told me she had pneumonia and she wasn’t getting well in the hospital so her mother treated her naturally. I said I had just gotten over a case and found oil of oregano to be more powerful than anything else I’d ever tried and she said that was the main weapon in her mom’s treatment also and she had dramatic results with it. Three days after I began taking it with such immediate results, I stopped to test if it really was that product and the pneumonia worsened rapidly for 24 hours until I began treatment again.

http://tinyurl.com/rawk2

n the fight against SARS, there are two natural medicines to rely upon: Oregacyn and Germ-a-Clenz. Oregacyn is the front line of defense. It is a powerful germ killer, truly lifesaving. It may be taken preventatively: one capsule twice daily. If exposed or sickened, it should be taken aggressively, like 2 or more capsules three times daily. In severe cases it can be taken even more aggressively, like 2 to 4 capsules every hour of two (Note: be sure to take it with food, juice or with plenty of water). The Germ-a-Clenz is the ideal air sterilizer. Use it preventatively in all possible scenarios. Simply spray it high in the air in any room or region that may be contaminated. Spray in a tissue and breathe or, spray it directly into the mouth and/or nose. Use it for prevention in any area where people congregate. Keep both the Germ-a-Clenz and Oregacyn at ready access at all times. In the car, office, or other strategic places. Never go anywhere without it. The point is if an individual gets SARS if at least he or she takes Oregacyn, premature death will be prevented. The Germ-a-Clenz can also prevent it, that is by destroying the germ in the air or on surfaces. Oregacyn will neutralize the SARS virus. Germ-a-Clenz can neutralize its airborne components. Also, use Oregacyn oil, rubbing it into the chest, back, and feet, as well as taking it under the tongue. Use also the Maximum Strength oil of oregano. It is also effective as a topical rub.

A study by Siddiqui in Medical Science Research is revealing. Here, spice extracts, such as those used in Oregacyn and Germ-a-Clenz, killed all viruses tested on contact. The researchers were so amazed that they described the spice’s destructive actions as ‘remarkable’. The fact is the spice oils essentially disintegrated the viruses, even difficult-to-kill ones such as herpes. Thus, spice extracts offer the potential to cure a wide range of the plagues of modern humankind, including SARS and West Nile virus

Allquietonthewesternfront – at 14:09

Is sauerkraut a new weapon against bird flu?

By Karen Herzog

Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

MILWAUKEE — While President Bush scrambles to ward off an avian-flu pandemic, the world’s largest sauerkraut producer, tucked amid the glacial lakebeds of rural Wisconsin, is sitting atop a bumper crop of one possible preventative.

That’s right: sauerkraut.

An international buzz is surrounding the unassuming fermented cabbage. Scientists at Seoul National University in South Korea fed an extract of kimchi, a spicy Korean variant of sauerkraut, to 13 chickens infected with avian flu, and a week later, 11 of the birds started to recover, according to a report by the BBC Network.

http://tinyurl.com/9vlb5

04 September 2006

pfwag – at 13:32

RPh - there are strong indications that the PPV23 does not last a lifetime and in fact may not even last longer than a few years. See the info referenced in my BF report posted at http://www.arielco.us/page3.html Since it may be a critical component to surviving a BF infection we probably need better data since PBF may be with us for a good long time.

Sharp makes the air purifier that has been tested against H5N1. Here is an old E-Bay link with the various models and some info: http://tinyurl.com/otqsg Might be good for a sick room. I got one for my wife who is a substitute teacher. We haven’t asked the district about the “rules” of bringing your own air prufier with you to school during flu season.

BTW, another problem with UV lights in water is biofilm on the UV bulb. It seems that it likes UV. Some of the bigger UV water lamps have a built-in scrapper for removing the biofilm.

The whole idea of a shotgun is multiple pellets to hit some H5N1 infected bird winging your way. You may be betting your life on your shooting ability with only one or two.

A potentially big problem is drinking H5N1 infected water coming out of your tap. See http://tinyurl.com/g3htq for thoughts on how it can happen and http://tinyurl.com/ewovm for my thoughts on how to prevent it from happening.

Allquietonthewesternfront - thanks for the reminder. I’ll look into it. I’m not surprised that fermented cabbage (kim chee) kills H5N1. If “good” medicine tastes bad Kim Chee has got to be one of the very best medicines.

09 November 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:32

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / H 5 N1-Threat Level

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: H 5 N1-Threat Level

03 September 2006

cmo111 – at 15:51

Just looking at Google news - there seems to be a decline in H5N1 human cases - the Indonesian clusters do not seem to have come to much - are we seeing the natural decline of H5N1?

A former Lurker – at 16:09

Or are we finally seeing our “Summer Lull” ?

 Calm before the Storm
anon_22 – at 16:26

‘Clusters’, as the name suggest, tend to cluster. If there were a continuous stream of cases, they would not be clusters.

It does seem to be better, or it may be too soon to tell.

Okieman – at 17:18

If you look closely at the news articles coming out of Indonesia they are indicating an elevated level of concern due to September being their rainy (and flu) season. Let’s see what the situation looks like after September or October.

Dark Horse – at 18:02

“there seems to be a decline in H5N1 human cases - the Indonesian clusters do not seem to have come to much - are we seeing the natural decline of H5N1?”

It was quiet in Indonesia just before the Karo cluster. It would be wonderful if H5N1 was fizzling, but with its geographic and host range triumph, I rather doubt it. It’s hard to tell just what we’re seeing in Indonesia because of the Tamiflu. If you look at the early Garut cluster before the free dispensing of Tamiflu you see something very nasty. Then with the Tamiflu, everything appeared to change. Has Tamiflu conquered the beast for the moment? Is Indonesia involved in some strange dance as a prelude to World Bank funding? What about the 17 or so cases that are still unclear? For those many who were testing negative, what was making them sick in the first place?

As I look at Indonesia I am reminded of Jack Nicholson’s classic movie “Chinatown.” “You never really know what’s going on in Chinatown.”

RobTat 22:59

Quite a while ago in another thread there was the analogy of a pandemic breaking out like it was a pot boiling. First a few small, individual bubbles (read cases); then awhile goes by and when you look again there are a few groups of small bubbles (read clusters); and after another while, the bubbles get bigger and faster; and at some point it breaks into a roiling boil (read pandemic).

This virus will not listen to our prognostications/predictions/ or hopeful prayers, and it won’t march to the drumbeat of our timetable. It is doing it’s own thing, and we (as a species) are a potential host, and we are not doing anything like enough to stop it’s march. If it is possible to intervene at all. Dunno.

That is the reality. For me, it’s like watching a train wreck in slow motion.

blackbird – at 23:04

I have no problem with having more time to prepare (if there turns out to be more time — Indonesia isn’t the only place in the world threatened with BF. And some of those places aren’t reporting much if anything).

Ruth – at 23:16

I worry about what is happening in Africa. We heard about a few cases and that’s it. I agree, it seems like we are watching a pot boiling. It seems that things slow down in Indonesia and then it picks up again. Something tells me not to take this too lightly. Again most of the world’s scientists are really worried about bird flu. I’m not sure if it’s scientic evidence or their gut telling them something’s not right.

04 September 2006

blackbird – at 02:34

Yes, I agree Ruth. Africa is one of the places where it’s unclear what’s going on. Same is true in other places as well.

anonymous – at 02:43

RobT,Ruth, where did you find this pot-boiling analogy ? I can see no reason to assume this. Seems more as if someone someone liked the wording and the analogy itself as if there were any evidence that H5N1 really would behave this way. It could be. But our experience with previous pandemics is different.

AnnieBat 05:09

Dark Horse at 18:02 “Has Tamiflu conquered the beast for the moment?”

We need to remember (I would love to be corrected if I am wrong) that Tamiflu ‘lessens’ the intensity of the symptoms but does not kill the virus outright - it interferes with its ability to replicate rapidly in the host. This lack of rapid replication would perhaps lower the H2H infection possibilities - less virus produced to pass on to someone else but it is not gone gone.

anonymous – at 05:46

as I understood, Tamiflu given prophylactically (75mg daily) would in general prevent an infection.

Commonground – at 06:04

I hope this is not the reason the news has dried up in the past few days. I posted this in the Sept. 3 News Thread:

News written by editorial staff on Saturday, on September 02 2006: (excerpt) for the last two months in 2006 the price of the sweet Siammadu citrus fruit commodity from the Karo Regency the plateau of the Line’s Hill, plummeted the alias fell the price. The decline in the price of the citrus fruit for the last two month was the extraordinary incident. The writer felt sad, with the price fall at this time because only was discussed in the level of the cafe, did not spread took the form of the seminar in hotels, rarely was contained in the newspaper. Was different to rumours of busy bird flu was discussed in the print media. This article was made for the aim of depicting the phenomenon that was experienced by the farmer, try to give the fall way out of the price of the citrus fruit. http://tinyurl.com/nwt43

Ruth – at 08:30

anonymous at 2:43 You have a point. I think the boiling thing comes from Barry’s book, The Great Influenza. Someone correct me if I’m wrong. Of course every pandemic is different or could be we really don’t know because we’ve never watched it unfold on a daily basis as we are now. I suppose, we could wake up one day and find sick people all over the world. Or just small clusters in one area for a while. The whole thing scares me.

ColdClimatePrepperat 09:05

Yes, the boiling analogy comes from Barry’s book, and refers to the manner in which the Spanish flu appeared, at first in a few areas, seemed to go away for blocks of time, more simmering, then finally came out full force and was quickly found all over the globe. The first wave was very infectious but not very lethal. The second wave (separeted by some months I think I remember, from the first wave) was both very infectious and had a high mortality. Again it swept the globe in a matter of weeks/months and was unstoppable.

Barry’s book is extremely interesting, well researched, detailed and I do think sheds a lot of light on the nature of pandemic influenza. After reading people referring to it here on the Wiki for weeks, I finally gave in a bought it. It was worth the money and the time needed to read it.

Ruth – at 10:59

I agree. Great Book. It helped me understand what we may be up against. Anyone who has concerns about avian flu should read it.

09 November 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:32

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Who is Not Going to Pull Their Kids from School

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Who is Not Going to Pull Their Kids from School

28 October 2006

Blue – at 04:35
 What possible excuse is there for not immediately taking your kids out of school when bird flu goes H2H?

 Does anyone know of anyone who would not take their kids out of school in such circumstances; and why?

 Bugger the economics, I say(it’s not the problem of the individual to think about)- we must save ourselves before we save our day jobs. Just save up to pay your bills(!which would take some thought!)- and find a new job if your old one isn’t there in the new world. SIMPLE, i’n’it?!?

 The less people that die is the priority-I’N’IT?!?
anonymous – at 05:49

it’s up to the school to decide whether they will close or not

uk bird – at 06:16

People’s reactions will veer back and forth between panic and complacence. It will vary dramatically with severity and locality.

What would happen if large numbers of kids were hanging out together committing crimes? What if teachers refused to take the risk of coming to work. What if a large number of kids were killed by house fires caused by candles and gas heaters? What if most survived one viral wave just fine and they are told another is on the way, will they beleive that THIS wave is the real one? What if you’ve been off work, looking after your kids for four months and no one in your area has died, your boss is about to sack you? What if you only tolerate your kids and want them out from under your feet?

Nobody is able to say what will happen. Which is why, I think, people need to be told as many facts as possible and encouraged to do their own planning. But many people will still expect someone else to make the decisions for them.

lugon – at 06:46

uk bird - agreed! Plus we need to know what the facts are. We’re still learning many important things.

Reader – at 07:10

Children and school are the worst vectors for regular flu, as has been discussed before. You can count on the situation being worse if schools stay open. I think 99% of parents will be able to tolerate their children if the alternative is death.

uk bird – at 07:37

Reader – at 07:10 I think 99% of parents will be able to tolerate their children if the alternative is death.

But for how long? 1 month, 1 year, 2 years? Kids still have to be educated. People still have to earn a living unless the state is going to support them (if it can).

And death isn’t the guaranteed alternative. Every parent will have a tipping point (both to take their kids from schools and to return them there again) it will vary depending upon education level, anxiety, financial circumstances, danger (real and imagined), marital status, responsibilities etc.

Many parents will want someone else to take the responsibility, in part so they have someone else to blame if it all goes wrong.

Governments tend to make the decision that will get them votes here and now. They’re not going to take a pre-emptive strike to close schools. What if it’s a false alarm? They’ll probably wait until parents act. That might be too late for parents who aren’t as well informed as the ones here. Or it might be the right decision, kids still need to be taught. Keeping them off school won’t necessarily slow the transmission, kids still die in large numbers in places where they don’t go to school. How many parents will keep their kids at home all of the time?

I’d be happier to know that my government is preparing plans for a worse pandemic than 1918. I’d like to know that they won’t be making snap decisions if the CFR is more than 2.5%. I’d also like to know that the public has also thought long and hard about it so they don’t panic at the last moment.

DebPat 07:54

It depends, on your city and circumstances. 5 days absent without a doctors permission and they will haul the parents to court and possibly jail where I live. They have already tried that with me when my son was in third grade. He was sick all the time. The day before he was scheduled for surgery they made me meet with the truant officer. This was really just a vindictive principle because I was demanding special education services. He conviently forgot to tell the officer about the surgery. That made the officer mad and the case was dropped. I just had to agree to bring a doctors note. But that nasty incident has been in my son’s school history ever since. It is interesting now that my son is in high school, he has been the one to inform the teachers. He did a report on bird flu at the beginning of last year. After that the number of teachers that would talk to him about it grew steadily. I just had his IEP meeting last week. I actually brought up the bird flu, four of his new teachers instantly said that is really scary. My son says teachers he hasn’t even had will come up and talk to him about it. I think that he has put out the information that even if the school doesn’t close, enough teachers who know the facts will refuse to show up, and they will have to close.

Malachi – at 08:04

MI has pretty easy to deal with laws regarding home school DebP.There was a thread about homeschool laws by state,maybe a linker could link.I am more of a lunker ;)

Average Concerned Mom – at 08:40

Parents who don’t know that there is H2H spread of a pandemic and who don’t know that there is such a thing as a pandemic will have no reason to take their kids out of school.

Depending on media coverage, there could be a lot of people who don’t know — until the pandemic starts affecting a lot of people in their own neighborhood, which could be a few days to a few weeks to a month or more, depending on where they live.

Parents who read the news but don’t believe it, rationalizing, “if the schools are open it must be OK.”

Parents who know there is a pandemic, but believe the risk is overblown, rationalizing, “if the schools are open, it must be OK.”

Parents who are metally challenged (retarded, mentally ill, to such a degree that they can’t process the information that they do get well enough to make a decision).

People who can’t read and don’t follow the news.

People who don’t speak English.

Oh, and of course, parents who WONDER is there’s a pandemic (along with the rest of the world) but aren’t sure. Is it pandemic flu? Is it seasonal flu?

Parents who have moved heaven and earth to get their kids into a magnet program in an otherwise crappy school district, and know if they remove their kid for any reason they will lose that slot for their kid and all the kids’ siblings; and these parents HAVEN’T been following fluwiki and the flu boards for 3 years, so they aren’t up on the implications of pandemic flu; they’ve just been told, we’ll have to treat kids at home and have 2 weeks of food on hand; and they expect there will be a vaccine. They probably will send their kids to school as long as school is open, especially if they have no one telling them not to.

Science Teacher – at 20:21

ACM, you are right,the information needs to get out there to parents soon so that plans can be made well in advance if alternative care is needed once schools are closed.

 Outreach programs need to be set up by schools to do this (possibly use school social workers, guidance counsellors and truant officers?)  Closing schools early seems to be the most effective strategy.  (Read Annon_22′s comments on the TLC and IOM threads).

My kids are grown now, but if if they were still in school I would have my homeschooling letters of intention ready to deliver once sustained H2H began anywhere in the world. I would take an emergency leave as well. This option should be made avaiable to everyone. IMO, parent’s need to be held personally responsible for their kids whereabouts and consequences put in place so that parents realize in advance that they can’t let them leave home once quarantine is in place. Yeah, it will be tough dealing with Teenagers but it will be a lot tougher watching them die.

Lots of laws need to be ready to put in place so that families have the financial security to stay home during a pandemic, with the exception of essential personnel. Education of parents to this possibility has been sadly lacking so far.

I think it is time to talk with your PTA reps and express your concerns.

29 October 2006

Cherokee Rose – at 00:35

Science Teacher at 20:21

This is one of the topic you will be discussing in depth when you attend the “Public Engagement Project on Community Control Measures” meeting.

I attended the Atlanta meeting today, and in our small group our concensus was that closing schools would be the most challenging containment measure - for many of the reasons stated in this thread and in other threads.

At the same time, over 80% of ALL the participants surveyed AFTER discussing the pros and cons agreed that option was still a *valid* control measure. In other words, the overwhelming majority was willing to do this in spite of the challenges.

CR

Pixie – at 01:49

Average Concerned Mom - at 8:40

Your points are excellent, and I’ll be taking them with me when I speak to my school officials about planning, ahead of time, for school closure. For all the reasons you mention, planning ahead and anticipating needs the needs and problems that a school closure will engender is, as is clear from your post, absolutely the smartest way to proceed.

However, when the time comes, I will also take the directory for our small school here in hand and I will call every family on the list. I will explain my background and that I have watched H5N1 carefully for a long time, I will describe whatever the current situation is, I will make use of the science I have learned along this journey and explain the particulars to those who ask, I will lay out the hard facts and statistics, I will ask the hard questions, and I will tell them that I think it is time to pull their kids from school.

Ours is a small school. When I am done, I think there will be no reason left to keep it open.

My task finished there, I may find another school phone book and start over. This is what, in the end, it may take. We may need to take the decision out of the hands of those it is normally placed in. These will not be normal times.

And would I be embarassed or nervous to make these calls? No. I have been called up to six times a day recently by both people and machines working on behalf of candidates seeking election on Tues. They only want a vote. I want to save a kid’s life. If that is what it is going to take - a personal campaign - no problem.

Science Teacher – at 17:54

Thanks for the info. CR. I am happy to hear that 80% felt that closing schhols was needed. I look forward to reading more when you get to it.

Pixie, I like your idea of a phone campaign a lot. I think it would really help and put the power back into the hands of the parents to make what could be a life or death choice for their kids.

NWF gal – at 18:24

Our 14 yo attends a private school. At this point, I don’t think we would hesitate to take her out of school. But I do think of the ramifications. I would like to think we and other parents will continue to pay tuition so the teachers can be paid. But, if things are so bad that we would pull our child from school, I probably would not continue to work to minimize the possibility of bringing the virus home to her. So, without my income we would have to cut our expenses and school tuition might be at the top of the list. We could pay it for awhile, but I don’t know for how long. It is troubling to think that doing what is best for you and your family could have an unintended negative affect on someone else.

Science Teacher – at 18:56

NFW, that is a very sensitive comment and you must be a caring person.

 There are so many people in many different jobs that may lose their livlihood and have great difficulty making ends meet.  I hope the government is planning for this aspect.  Single parents will face the hardest challenge, I think.
blackbird – at 22:06

Two parent households may differ on their readiness to take their kids out of school, there are other threads discussing differences of opinion within households with regard to prepping. In that respect, single parents at least don’t have to argue about it with their spouse. Having to come to agreement could slow down the decision making process.

01 November 2006

bump – at 17:16

09 November 2006

bump – at 08:39
Carrey in VA – at 09:15

Reason number 4534789 to homeschool. I don’t have to worry about when to bring the kids home. whew!

Kathy in FL – at 10:35

The other thing to remember is that the flu is unlikely to be equally spread throughout all geographical areas at the same time.

Will the schools in Florida close if there are few to no pandemic flu cases in the state, even if there are cases in New York? I can see it if there are cases in Georgia, but not California or New York.

And what happens between “waves” if the virus behaves in that way? Conceivably we could be talking about nearly 2 years of waves.

There may also be a significant group of school aged children that lose their adult(s). These children will have to be housed and educated as well … there won’t be “homeschool” options for them. Most states, actually I think all of them, require the home education program to be headed by a parent. Not even all legal guardians qualify … most foster children cannot be homeschooled. In some states, until an adoption is legally finalized and recorded here in the US the adopting parent cannot homeschool the child.

I am a strong believe and proponent for homeschooling, but I do realize it is not the panacea for all situations.

We need to be coming up with realistic alternatives and responses now rather than trying to wing it when an emergency does hit.

deborah – at 16:43

There is one category that Average Concerned Mom didn’t mention, those who don’t watch or care about the news at all. My ex never watched the news, and the only part of the paper he ever read was the sports page. His reasoning was that “you can’t believe the crap that these idiots write.” To him, you could never believe what you read or even what doctors would tell him, because “they only want to get more money our of me” in his words. I can’t believe I ever even thought of marrying someone so stupid, my only defense was that I was very young at the time.

There are plenty of people like him though, who think that most news is all hype and can’t be trusted, or that it is all just too depressing to see so they just avoid it entirely. When it actually happens to them is when they will believe it and not before. Sadly, they will have kids who will pay the price for their beliefs.

mcjohnston92 – at 16:59

Deborah at 16:43

I don’t think you need to worry much about it. I believe that if h5n1 breaks wide open, the news will be everywhere. Scrolling at the bottom of tv show’s…the cancellation of large gatherings like sports events might be another tip off. Think 9/11…can you think of anyone who didn’t get the news pdq??

aurora – at 18:58

I think they will be furious that they weren’t wacked over the head with a 2″x4″ and told to prepare.

crfullmoon – at 19:00

I haven’t seen anything to think it isn’t expected to be in many places simultaneously, and then consider; different strains/waves may overlap…there are already more than one clade -what if each eventually goes pandemic, and has its own waves? (at least at first, when people are still trying to travel and fuel holds out, people will be moving virus great distances.) 9/11 was sort of a freeze-frame of travel; how many states/nations were your local people stuck when flights were grounded? How many people do we contact in a day or two before falling ill? I do not see there only being cases in one state, (unless reporting of them stops); people travel for business, vacation, military, nat’l guard,ect, every day.

The points from the recent conferences, about, cases double every 2 days, means there is little time to recognize what is happening and act, at the start of pandemic, and, if for some reason the wave seems to be ending locally, I don’t see any way to know when the next wave was about to arrive. If even a 2% cfr means we’d lose the young people normally lost to all other causes combined over two deacdes, surviving kids and adults are going to be very leery of chancing death after experiencing the first swath. Especially if they feel the govt was keeping them in the dark to start with; who’s going to believe an “all-clear now; get back to school and go to work”? During SARS in Canada tptb tried to say it was over too soon, and, we recall the air quality at ground zero after 9/11, too…

I do think communities should be planning now what to do with unattended minors (and grieving parents) but, hard to do that when there’s no public discussion “to avoid panic” of impacts of a pandemic influenza year. Even the Nov. 3rd 12-week prep recommendation to Americans in HK got pulled back to 2 weeks. (Wish they’d instead sent the mainland Americans a news flash that we were supposed to be prepping for at least 12 weeks…) and schooling needs to be discussed, but, schools need healthy kids.

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Page last modified on November 09, 2006, at 07:00 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Test Thread

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Test Thread

07 November 2006

pogge – at 22:42

Don’t mind me folks. Just testing something. Please leave this thread to me.

anonymous – at 22:42

Test post.

anonymous – at 22:42

Test again.

disgruntled – at 22:43

Criminy, nobody told me there would be a test today and I didn’t read the assignment. Can we postpone it till tomorrow?

anonymous – at 22:45

You’ve already failed. It was a test to see if you could follow instructions. ;-)

pogge – at 22:45

You’ve already failed. It was a test to see if you could follow instructions. ;-)

anonymous – at 22:46

So far I can’t duplicate the problem. I hate it when that happens.

pogge – at 22:46

So far I can’t duplicate the problem. I hate it when that happens.

08 November 2006

anonymous – at 00:09

Let’s try it again.

pogge – at 00:10

And again.

pogge – at 00:12

Y’all can fill this up a bit if you want. Maybe I need a longer thread. But be warned that eventually I’ll delete this so it isn’t the place for your best material. ;-)

disgruntled – at 00:16

How many mural painters does it take to change a light bulb?

………….

Three. One to hold back the zebra, and the other two to fill the bathtub with toasters.

disgruntled – at 00:30

How many software engineers does it take to change a lightbulb?

……………..

None. It’s a hardware problem


How many apes does it take to change a lightbulb?

………………..

Just one. But it takes a ++LOT+++ of bulbs.

anonymous – at 00:50

Woody Allen’s imaginary and very imaginative letter from Vincent van Gogh to his brother Theo:

“If the Impressionists Had Been Dentists.”

Dear Theo, Will life never treat me decently? I am wracked by despair! My head is pounding! Mrs. Sol Schwimmer is suing me because I made her bridge as I felt it and not to fit her ridiculous mouth! That’s right! I can’t work to order like a common tradesman! I decided her bridge should be enormous and billowing, with wild, explosive teeth flaring up in every direction like fire! Now she is upset because it won’t fit in her mouth! She is so bourgeois and stupid, I want to smash her! I tried forcing the false plate in but it sticks out like a star-burst chandelier. Still, I find it beautiful. She claims she can’t chew! What do I care whether she can chew or not! Theo, I can’t go on like this much longer.

Vincent.

anonymous – at 00:54

Dr. Evil’s autobiography:

“The details of my life are quite inconsequential… very well, where do I begin? My father was a relentlessly self-improving boulangerie owner from Belgium with low grade narcolepsy and a penchant for buggery. My mother was a fifteen year old French prostitute named Chloe with webbed feet. My father would womanize, he would drink. He would make outrageous claims like he invented the question mark. Sometimes he would accuse chestnuts of being lazy. The sort of general malaise that only the genius possess and the insane lament. My childhood was typical. Summers in Rangoon, luge lessons. In the spring we’d make meat helmets. When I was insolent I was placed in a burlap bag and beaten with reeds – pretty standard really. At the age of twelve I received my first scribe. At the age of fourteen a Zoroastrian named Vilma ritualistically shaved my testicles. There really is nothing like a shorn scrotum… it’s breathtaking – I highly suggest you try it.”

anonymous – at 00:56

Italo Calvino: “Writing always means hiding something in such a way that it is then discovered.”

anonymous – at 01:02

Bertrand Russell: Many people would sooner die than think. In fact, they do.

anonymous – at 01:03

Mencius: What is the salary of a thousand bushels to me, if I come by it against my principles?

disgruntled – at 01:08

LITERATURE ABUSE: AMERICA’S HIDDEN PROBLEM

SELF-TEST FOR LITERATURE ABUSERS

How many of these apply to you?

1. I have read fiction when I was depressed, or to cheer myself up.

2. I have gone on reading binges of an entire book or more in a day.

3. I read rapidly, often ‘gulping’ chapters.

4. I have sometimes read early in the morning or before work.

5. I have hidden books in different places to sneak a chapter without being seen.

6. Sometimes I avoid friends or family obligations in order to read novels.

7. Sometimes I re-write film or television dialog as the characters speak.

8. I am unable to enjoy myself with others unless there is a book nearby.

9. At a party, I will often slip off unnoticed to read.

10. Reading has made me seek haunts and companions which I would otherwise avoid.

11. I have neglected personal hygiene or household chores until I have finished a novel.

12. I have spent money meant for necessities on books instead.

13. I have attempted to check out more library books than permitted.

14. Most of my friends are heavy fiction readers.

15. I have sometimes passed out from a night of heavy reading.

16. I have suffered ‘blackouts’ or memory loss from a bout of reading.

17. I have wept, become angry or irrational because of something I read.

18. I have sometimes wished I did not read so much.

19. Sometimes I think my reading is out of control.

  1. 20, I have parked my car and read while my husband waited at home…
anonymous – at 01:14

Tequila Cookies

1 cup of dark brown sugar
1 cup (2 sticks) butter
1 cup of granulated sugar
4 large eggs
2 cups of dried fruit, such as dried cranberries or raisins
1 tsp baking soda
1 tsp salt
1 tsp fresh lemon juice
1 cup coarsely chopped walnuts or pecans
2 cups all-purpose flour
1 bottle Jose Cuervo Tequila (silver or gold, as desired)

Sample the Cuervo to check quality.
Take a large bowl, check the Cuervo again, to be sure it is of the highest quality, pour one level cup and drink.
Turn on the electric mixer…Beat one cup of butter in a large fluffy bowl.
Add one teaspoon of sugar…Beat again.
At this point it’s best to make sure the Cuervo is still OK, try another cup…just in case.
Turn off the mixerer thingy.
Break 2 leggs and add to the bowl and chuck in the cup of dried fruit, pick the frigging fruit off floor.
Mix on the turner. If the fried druit gets stuck in the beaterers just pry it loose with a drewscriver.
Sample the Cuervo to check for tonsisticity.
Next, sift two cups of salt, or something.
Check the Jose Cuervo.
Now shift the lemon juice and strain your nuts.
Add one table.
Add a spoon of sugar, or somefink. Whatever you can find.
Greash the oven.
Turn the cake tin 360 degrees and try not to fall over. Don’t forget to beat off the turner.
Finally, throw the bowl through the window, finish the Cose Juervo and make sure to put the stove in the dishwasher.

disgruntled – at 01:22

computer poetry

< > ! * ‘ ‘ # waki waka bang splat tick tick hash, ^ “  $ $ - caret quote back-tick dollar dollar dash,

* = @ $ _

bang splat equal at dollar under-score, % * < > ~ # 4 percent splat waki waka tilde hash four & [ ] . . / ampersand brackin brackout dot dot slash, | { , , ZERO DIVIDE ERROR up-bar curly brackin comma comma CRASH.

after Bremmer & Krose

disgruntled – at 01:23

Nuts. Never thought what would happen to the formatting.

AnnieBat 01:41

How many women does it take to change a light bulb when they have PMT (PMS) ?

Just One! ALRIGHT !

AnnieBat 01:41

How many mice does it take to change a lightbulb?

Just one, but first you have to get it in there …

AnnieBat 01:42

How many psychologists does it take to change a lightbulb?

Just one, but first the lightbulb has got to want to change

AnnieBat 01:43

Perhaps you need some more pre-formatted stuff to make it work?? With links??

Shock and yawn of redundant scare stories TV REVIEW IAIN HEGGIE

Horizon, BBC2 Stop Treating Me Like a Kid, E4

LAST night’s Horizon, subtitled Pandemic, certainly laid it on thick. The music went all requiem-y. Footage of deserted cities turned black-and-white. Dots floated about the screen with a conspicuous attraction to the nose and mouth of passing humans. Computer-generated graphics showed maps of continents with blood red spreading out from major centres of population. Multicoloured cartoonised cowpats - like something from the Beano - were humourlessly superimposed on bird flu experts telling us why we should be very afraid. And tearful actors grossly overstated their impressions of real-life witnesses to an unfolding disaster.

This was a documentary with the one-note heavy-handedness of a pneumatic drill. Someone at the BBC clearly forgot to remind the makers of Pandemic that there’s a reason why shock and awe road accident and anti-smoking ads are over in seconds. Any longer and the law of diminishing returns kicks in, big style.

There wasn’t enough story in this predictive drama documentary to justify 30 minutes, let alone 90. All the programme had to do was explain how the human mutation of bird flu will work, how it will spread and why there is nothing we can do to prepare. There was no justification for taking the drama documentary route. There was no conflicting science to report, complete with opposing camps. There was no history of neglect or corruption to expose. There was no complacent hiding of heads in sand to struggle vainly against. There wasn’t even anything to campaign for (or, if there was, the makers didn’t tell us what it was). Without a protagonist pursuing a difficult high-stakes objective and faced by tricky conflict, there is no drama in a drama-documentary.

I don’t for one second doubt that bird flu can mutate into a form infectious between humans. I’m prepared to believe that it is only a matter of time before it will, and that the outcome could be disastrous. But in smearing its entire running time with an easy glaze of defeated sentimentality - whose statement amounted to no more than “isn’t it sad that people die?” - Pandemic made me want to kick against it and start constructing arguments to the opposite effect. For all its purple content, outside of the theatre I can’t remember the last time 90 minutes dragged so badly.

Another week, another reality show about trying to reform badly-behaved teenagers. Stop Treating Me Like A Kid took a group of them to a house in a country village and required them to take work to house and feed themselves.

Johnny had a habit of staying up late and getting drunk. He turned up for his farm job two hours late on his first day. On the second day, following a bender, he didn’t turn up at all. But you knew he was susceptible to pressure from his housemates by the way he answered their criticism: “I don’t feel guilty not wanting to skip around in shit.”

Then one of the other housemates got sacked from a job in the local butcher’s and Johnny went to take their place. Again, he only lasted one day. With housemates dropping out, the group was in danger of not being able to pay the rent, so he went after a third job, working for a local wheelwright. This was like finding treasure: tools and making things interested Johnny naturally. He was also clearly gratified by his boss’s praise, and we began to see he was vulnerable not only to pressure from his housemates but also affirmation from grown men.

The uncovering of positive character traits is one of the more attractive features of this kind of transformation television. But can you trust what you see? The programme created an illusion that these teenagers were wandering around Devon on their own. But producers, researchers, cameras and crews must be a significant part of the reality of the kids’ experience. Why do we have to be excluded from all that? This kind of blatant artificiality eats away at my trust in what I’m seeing and diminishes its impact.

This article: http://living.scotsman.com/tv.cfm?id=1650842006

blackbird – at 02:11

wow, unusual thread. cool.

AnnieBat 03:17

pogge - if you are testing what I think you are testing (wink wink) then let me know and I will start a new thread for you with the dummy News Summary in it … since that was the example used in the problem raised (more winking)

Bronco Bill – at 06:15

pogge—check yer email. It may be the “key” to what you’re looking for…

cottontop – at 06:49

Hmmmm. I thought this is a test thread. Had paper and pencil ready.

Bronco Bill – at 08:26

I was told to leave my calculator and cell phone at home… ;-) Slide rules only…

Homesteader – at 08:40

A favorite quote:

“Suppose I was an idiot, suppose I was a member of Congress, But I repeat myself.”

Samuel Clemens aka Mark Twain

Seemed appropriate the day after U.S. Election day.

Nimbus – at 09:12

The problem with political jokes is they get elected. Henry Cate VII

Fun thread. :)

Bronco Bill – at 09:19

:-) Let’s not get too far off base here…there will be a quiz at the end of today’s test.

gardner – at 09:20

Homesteader – at 08:40 What is this, a slap at the democrats? Regardless, please keep politics out of this. Thank you.

Bronco Bill – at 09:25

gardner – at 09:20 --- Down boy! It could very well be a slap at the Indies, Repubs, Greens, or any other party. If you go back up towards the top and read pogge – at 00:12 on November 8, you’ll see that he’s gonna just delete this thread when he’s done anyway. And it won’t be about censorship or over-moderating a thread or disagreeing with what’s written. This particular, one and only thread is only a test

Duck and Cover; Drop and Roll. Your preference…

pogge – at 09:36

this is another test

Homesteader – at 09:38

Gardner;

LOL. . .lighten up it is a beautiful day. FYI: I’m not a “party animal”. My persona view on elections is it is a bit like deciding what color fox you want in the hen house.

Our Preps are nearing the goals we had set for ourselves earlier in the year. . . after that it will be continueing to educate others and getting some items from our “prep wish list” as the budget allows. I’m looking forward to Thanksgiving. . .more than usual.

God Bless.

cottontop – at 09:50

Where is this test?! Brought a case of bottled water for the teacher. ;-)

This really is fun. Perhaps we need to have a “blow off steam/let’s get crazy/let’s get stupid thread. What? you’re going to delete this? Geeze. I’ll take my case of bottled water back. I’m leaveing class!

Bronco Bill – at 09:52

pogge---is this an open-book exam?

Bronco Bill – at 09:54

cottontop – at 09:50 --- Sorry. The doors have been locked and the windows barred. You will sit and take the test with everyone else in class. And, did you bring enough water for everyone?

Bronco Bill – at 09:54

No?!? Then spit it out, put the rest under your seat, and sit up straight!!!

pogge – at 10:08

Bronco Bill at 06:15:

Thanks. One additional part of the key: it doesn’t happen in Firefox but it does in Internet Exploder. And you’re correct that you still can’t save the contents without a password.

For everyone else’s benefit: we thought we had a security flaw but it turns out that while it’s a glitch, it’s not a security problem.

I’ll delete this thread in a little while.

Bronco Bill – at 10:11

Okay class. Time’s up. Put down your pencils and pass your papers forward. You’ll receive your grades at the end of the semester.

cottontop – at 10:15

Class is dismissed? Yeah!!!! Alright Bronco Bill, unlock those doors. I gotta go replace the bottled water you made me spit out!

Bronco Bill – at 10:27

Oh, class? One more thing. You have homework tonight. In order to get your mind off of BF for a day, you’re all to read The Iliad tonight, front to back. There will be a test tomorrow on the entire story. ;-)

cottontop – at 10:39

Awwwww!! The Iliad! I vote to change that and we watch Jason and the Argonauts.

gardner – at 10:41

The Iliad??!!! Really! Hooray! Thank you. That is one of the BEST works of literature of all time! Absolutely fantastic in every way. (JMHO, of course.)

cottontop – at 10:43

There’s always a troublemaker! Teacher’s Pet!!!

gardner – at 10:51

ha! Actually I do love the Iliad.

Near the end of Book 4 there is a wonderful description of the gods driving the armies into battle . . .

“and Terror drove them, and Fear, and Hate whose wrath is relentless, she [Hate] the sister and companion of murderous Ares, she who is only a little thing at the first, but thereafter grows until she strides on earth with her head striking heaven. She then hurled down bitterness equally between both sides as she walked through the onslaught, making men’s pain heavier.”

Come on. That’s fantastic. The image of Hate starting out as just a little thing, but quickly growing huge and powerful. Brilliant!

gardner – at 10:53

But if the votes are against the Iliad (sniff), then what about the Lord of the Rings?

crfullmoon – at 11:00

Doesn’t matter; we keep fighting the long defeat, anyway. “Si man i yulma nin enquantuva?”

cottontop – at 11:05

Don’t let teacher here me say this, but the Iliad is fantastic! I just love Jason and the Argonauts, Sinbad, Clash of the Titians. All classics. And the Hobbit was one of the first “serious” books I read when I was a kid, after my Charlie and the Chocolate Factory faze.

Who me? I wasn’t talking. It was him! Awwwwwwwww. Detention again!!

anonymous – at 11:41

OK, Class, here is the test. You have two hours, you may use the internet.

What is the conversion from weight of flour to volume of flour in a recipe? What is the conversion for sugar?

What is the accepted recipe for oral rehydration salts, in metric units.

How many watts are in a horsepower? How many watts of solar panel will it take to run a 0.75 hp pump? What is the amperage at 12 volts? How will it be run at night?

How many genes are in the H5N1 genome? What are their names?

Translate the following into plain English: AY651366 A/Ph/ST/44/2004 HA (4) 1667 2004 H5N1

Describe 4 ways to disinfect water, with and without power.

What is the proper way of removing and disinfecting a respirator?

Name three foods that store indefinitely, require no cooking, and have high nutrient density.

List 100 ways to amuse a child.

Describe how to make elk-shank moccasins. Describe the parts of the elk carcass, what method of cooking is best for each, and how to preserve the meat. Describe the basic process of tanning the hide with a bar of Fels-Naptha soap. List 20 other uses for Fels-Naptha.

crfullmoon who used to test well – at 11:44

w

e

r

e

s

c

r

e

w

e

d

.

.

.

Bronco Bill – at 12:48

One last extra-credit question, class: if apples are red, and grapes are purple, what is the weight of a half-moon waning?

crfullmoon – at 13:14

In Imperial or Metric measurement units, Bronco Bill?

(Why does the porrige-bird lay his egg in the air? I forget.)

Sister Blister – at 13:31

pogge - its not a glitch, its a FEATURE.

Bronco Bill – at 14:47

crfullmoon – at 13:14 I would prefer if you would please round your measurement to the closest long tonnes.

crfullmoon – at 14:55

(I’d better just bite ma tonng…)

Doctor Memory – at 14:58

crfullmoon – at 13:14

Noooooo….

crfullmoon – at 15:07
Read Me, Doctor Memory.

I’ve been awake for- nine hours…

anonymous – at 16:49

Test answers. You may grade your own sheet.

What is the conversion from weight of flour to volume of flour in a recipe? What is the conversion for sugar? Sugar (Granulated) 44 lb/cf= 3 fluid ounces/ounce by weight=0.70 gm/cc Flour (Wheat) 42 lb/cf= 2.8 fluid ounces/ounce by weight=0.67 gm/cc


What is the accepted recipe for oral rehydration salts, in metric units. Reduced strength formula: Start with 1 liter of clean water, preferably boiled and cooled. Add 2.6 g Sodium chloride 1.5 g Salt Substitute (100% KCl) 2.9 g bicarbonate 27g Table sugar (Sucrose)

OR A little less than 1/2 tsp ordinary table salt. A heaping quarter teaspoon salt substitute that is 100% KCl Three quarters teaspoon bicarbonate of soda 8 teaspoons table sugar Shake well to dissolve. It should taste as salty as tears.


How many watts are in a horsepower? How many watts of solar panel will it take to run a 0.75 hp pump? What is the amperage at 12 volts? How will it be run at night?

Watts 2 Horsepower : Watts x 0.00134 ==746 watts/HP


How many genes are in the H5N1 genome? What are their names? 7. Influenza A virus RNA segments coding for the spike proteins (HA, NA, and M2) and the internal proteins (PB2, PB1, PA, NP, M, and NS)


Translate the following into plain English: AY651366 A/Ph/ST/44/2004 HA (4) 1667 2004 H5N1 Sequence numberAY651366/pheasant/Shantou, China/sequence 44/analyzed in 2004/HA segment of 4, 1667 nucleotides long/subtype H5N1


Describe 4 ways to disinfect water, with and without power. Bleach, ozone, ultraviolet light, boiling


What is the proper way of removing a respirator? The outside of the respirator is considered contaminated. So are your gloves. Coarsely decontaminate by washing gloved hands in decon bucket, then unfasten respirator, without touching uncontaminated part of face. Disassemble as needed, discard disposable parts, and put respirator into container of decontaminant solution. Use gloves to remove the rest of PPE, discard or decontaminate as needed. Then remove gloves, being sure not to contaminate clean areas, and discard.


Name three foods that store indefinitely, require no cooking, and have high nutrient density. Ramen noodles, canned tuna, crackers, peanut butter.


List 100 ways to amuse a child. http://product.half.ebay.com/838-Ways-to-Amuse-a-Child_W0QQtgZinfoQQprZ1300081


Describe how to make elk-shank moccasins. Describe the parts of the elk carcass, what method of cooking is best for each, and how to preserve the meat. Describe the basic process of tanning the hide with a bar of Fels-Naptha soap. List 20 other uses for Fels-Naptha.

http://www.inquiry.net/outdoor/winter/gear/moccasins/billy_bowleg.htm http://www.soapsgonebuy.com/category_s/8.htm

Bronco Bill – at 16:54

Y’know? That last one might just come in handy some day!!!

enza – at 17:16

anon you get an A.

One teeny tiny addendum: another quick rehydration recipe— a(3 finger) pinch of salt and 2 teaspoons of sugar to a cup of potable water.

crfullmoon – at 17:20

(too bad chocolate is so difficult to store indefinetly; unless in a glass container, out of sight, and out of mind)

Doctor Memory – at 20:02

anonymous – at 16:49

note on removing gloves: Pinch cuff of glove and turn down about an inch as if you were turning it inside out. Remove other glove. Then with uncontaminated hand remove remaining glove by grabbing the now exposed uncontaminated inner cuff. Turn gloves inside out as you remove.

This procedure was used for removing anti-c (c=contamination) gloves after working nuclear contaminated or possibly contaminated areas.

Oremus – at 20:03

The Doctor was me.

AnnieBat 22:06

You forgot the honey - manuka of course.

I think the changing lightbulb questions were much more fun!

Can you now please convert all the recipe items into metric and send some elk or moose to other countries ..

You forgot about ‘each animal has a brain big enough to save their hide’ - this means you mash the brains and rub them into the skin to keep it soft and pliable and preserved.

Pogge - can you please keep testing for a little while longer so we can keep playing?

BB - that water wasn’t shared (yes I am prepared to be teacher’s pet by snitching on the others)

Now here is a really difficult one ..

You take one hundred tags and write the numbers 1 to 100 on then (one tag per number). You draw one tag at a time and then return it to the stack. You want to draw your favourite number - which is 21 (oh to be 21 again? - nah). You have made 99 draws without success. What is the chance that your next draw will be the 21?

a. 99 out of 100
b. 1 out of 100
c. 1 out of 2
d. why are you carrying out such a dumb experiment anyway?

Bronco Bill – at 22:38

AnnieB’s question: What is the chance that your next draw will be the 21?

My answer: Green

AnnieBat 22:55

BB, I suggest you try your buzzer again to ensure it is working correctly

disgruntled – at 23:02

1 out of 100. That’s because you put the tags back in, so there are always 100 tags to choose from.

pogge – at 23:05

Good heavens. By all means keep playing. Just don’t hurt each other. And no running with scissors!

Bronco Bill – at 23:08

AnnieB – at 22:55 --- Shoot! You’re right..my buzzer was disconnected by some disgruntled contestant. Prob’ly a Wheel of Fortune loser…

Bronco Bill – at 23:09

ROTFLMAO!!! LOL!!! I just realized that disgruntled posted a few minutes before me…

AnnieBat 23:13

Pogge - reminds me of another t-shirt slogan worn by one of my sons …

“It’s funny until someone gets hurt, then it is absolutely hilarious”

AnnieBat 23:15

Talking of chickens, how does the Ooh-Aah bird get its name?

disgruntled – at 23:18

…hastily hides wire cutters in back of pants…

AnnieBat 23:22

I haven’t had this much fun since the fairy fell of the top of the christmas tree … no, don’t ask me to explain that - use your imagination …

SERIOUS NOTE TO NEW PEOPLE TO THIS THREAD

Pogge needed to do some testing so this thread was started and needed to be ‘filled’, so some of us decided to help … Do not take anything on this thread (or any of the contributors for that matter) seriously ;-)

MaMaat 23:37

even on a good day:-)

Amen AnnieB

cottontop – at 23:58

I’m telling you folks, we need a place to come and play. I had a blast earlier today, and I don’t seem to be the only one. It’s a good stress reliever when things get to weird over in the other threads. Hell, I’ll take your coats and hats, and order your drinks!

09 November 2006

pogge – at 00:00

I’ll try to think of more things that need testing.

cottontop – at 00:03

See what I mean, LOL!! Geeze, too much and it’s the next day. Play time is over for cottontop! You good folks have a peaceful night.

AnnieBat 00:05

Have a good day/night cottontop and we will see you back in class tomorrow - mine’s a G&T

enza – at 00:07

A round of bbrwfk for all, on me.

Oremus – at 11:10

You can say, “there are 3 (two’s, too’s, to’s) in the English language but how would you write it so that it is read the same as it is spoken?

Oremus – at 11:11

You can say, “There are 3 (two’s, too’s, to’s) in the English language.”, but how would you write it so that it is read the same as it is spoken?

AnnieBat 13:33

Oremus - that is a good party trivia question. You can start a list of words pronounced the same but spelt differently, then a list of words that are spelt the same but pronounced differently - e.g. bow, row

Here is another trivia one which is really good for parties (the hand antics it induces are entertaining in themself) ..

How does a fly land on the ceiling? Does it do a side flip, a back flip or a double-pike-two-and-a-half-backward-somersault? Does it tentatively place one or two sticky legs up over its head, get a quick grip then flip the rest of its body, folding in its wings at the same time?

Seriously, think about it - but have some suitable lubricant first. Here is a fly, buzzing along, feet faced towards the floor, wings up, parallel to the ceiling then the next thing it is hanging up there upside down - how does it invert itself - and when you have answered that - how does it know to do that?

enza – at 13:42

Oremus -

2

Oremus – at 15:25

enza – at 13:42

There are three 2′s in the English language.

Nah, I’m not buying it. Probably the next best solution though.

Without offending the Knights who say Nee, I don’t think it can be done.

diana – at 17:58

Brilliant!

AnnieBat 18:04

I have started a new thread called Relax and Have Some Fun Lounge so we can continue our entertainment mode …

pogge – at 18:16

Which would make this a good time to close this one.

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.TestThread
Page last modified on November 09, 2006, at 06:16 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / UK Preps

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: UK Preps

09 November 2006

anon_22 – at 11:52

I’m starting this thread for the purpose of enticing all you UK lurkers to come out and help each other! Post your questions, information, suggestions, comments, on how to prepare yourself and your family for a possible pandemic.


For the first post, I’m going to ask if any of you know where are the cheap places to buy bulk items.

My personal favourite at the moment is Costco, which sells even single items at wholesale prices. You have to join. If you have a business, then its easy. Or get someone who has a business to join and get you a card. Or you can join if you are a professional.

Please post your personal favourites!

Alan the Pom – at 12:25

Dont have a ‘Costco’ near me, but I use ‘Makro’ who also sell at wholesale prices.

Alan the Pom – at 12:29

anon_22 Do you have the web site for ‘Cosco’ so I can see if one is in my area. If not I’ll try google.

anon_22 – at 12:30

follow the above link :-)

uk bird – at 13:41

I’ve got access to Makro too (you also need a business to join). They do great special offers. The last time I tried Costco they wanted to charge for access which didn’t appeal. Perhaps I’ll join if we get a little closer to disaster.

I’m still in the process of testing tinned food for flavour. I don’t want to be locked up for months with tins of soup I just can’t stand!

anon_22 – at 14:33

tell us the result of your tests? :-)

uk bird – at 15:12

LOL! Mostly ‘I’d eat this if I HAD to’.

Vegitables - sweetcorn, Nibblets are best. Carrots, anybody’s, but sliced are cheaper. Broad beans, don’t forget to take the shells off. Peas - bleughhh (though it was a limited trial). Sprouts… nope haven’t been brave enough to buy any yet. Creamed mushrooms, while nice, need a lot more mushrooms. Tinned mushrooms, bland, need a little something extra… perhaps a tin of creamed mushrooms? I would try different baked beans but since I can’t abide tomatoes I’d probably only use the tins to repel burglars.

Meat - Plumrose cocktail sausages aren’t nice like I remember them from childhood. Spam should be grilled or fried, not cold (yuk). Corned beef is best mixed with mashed potatoes and fried. Haven’t tried tinned ham yet but I don’t have fond memories of it. Chicken in white sauce, all makes, not bad but I’ve got to try M&S’s version, it might have more chicken flavour. Fray Bentos pies - I’d steer clear of the ‘chicken and whatever it had with it’ pie. M&S tinned steak, yummy.

Not an exhaustive test so far, but not bad for someone who hasn’t had food out of a tin for years.

The soup trials are next… is it a bad sign when you can’t stand the smell just after you’ve opened the tin?

lugon – at 15:59

I recently bought http://www.squarefootgardening.com I find it useful.

Urdar-Norway – at 16:49

I did read in Norwegian newspaper that solar heathers and small windturbines was selling like hot chocklate at the british B&Q, i checked the prices, and they seem to be in the upper level I think in comparison with homemade sytems, but its great that ordinary shops starts selling this. This solar heathers uses waterpipes and stores the heath in water tanks.

A simpler but quite effective product is the Solarventi. Its a air based system, and do not store the heath, but if sun shines and you have a south facing wall or roof, this one will heath your home. It gives out 20–30´C hotter air than the outside temperature. And for the people with some DIY skills, its very easy to build your self, and much cheaper.

You need a small PV solar panel ( the portable ones used for recharging ipods and cellphones etc should do fine, this drives A old computer fan. A clear greenhouse channel plate. A thin blackpainted aluminium plate or stretchgrid painted black. Some flat insulation whit metallic coating (like those emergency blankets, look in carpart shops) and a frame. You make a hole in the wall for a ordinary vent, and thats it. The bigger the better, just use Solarventi data as a clue on how effective it is regarding size..

You construct it as a sandwich. From out to in: Greenhouse plate - 1 cm air- Black and perforated aluminium −2 cm of air- Insulation. Drill holes in the bottom part of frame leading into the outer chamber, How many and how big? Try it out, but make it a smaller area than the vent hole. The PV solarpanel is placed inside or somwhere else near the coolector.

When sun shines the computer fan will suck the cold outside air into the collektor, heated by the sun it will pass the perforation and be blowed into the house. The slower the air blows the hoter it will be. The fan is placed in the vent hole.

http://www.solarventi.co.uk/index.pl?art=5

I havent tried it out yet, only made a small prototype 20×20 cm, but its sure gets hot. And this is a very well tried out prinsiple for solar collectors.

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Page last modified on November 09, 2006, at 04:49 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Clear and Concise OTC Meds List

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Clear and Concise OTC Meds List

08 November 2006

Thom – at 06:54

Please help – there are so many different OTC meds out there that trying to develop a single list of OTC meds to purchase is driving me nuts. Can someone – anyone point me to a clear and concise list of OTC meds?

I know this is asking a lot but is there a list that says, for example:

Cold/flu tablets – Nuquyl or Repetabs – 3 box’s (36 tabs) Antihistamine – Benadryl or Claratyne – 4 box’s (48 tabs)

Thanks in advance.

NauticalManat 09:59

Try one of the following, all by Dr. Grattan Woodson: Go to Pandemic Preparedness here on fluwikie then to the personal preparedness guides. 1)Preparing for the Coming Influenza Pandemic, free here, or the book itself available for about $5 on Amazon, or 2)his excellent Good Home Treatment of Influenza, free, or 3) his new book The Bird Flu Manual just published, also on Amazon for about $16. Any or all are excellent. I have all of them, and suggest you download at least Good Home Treatment for Influenza for reference.

janetn – at 23:22

Tylenol, Motrin [ibubropin] Asprin FYI Tylenol and Asprin are different classes of drugs can be taken alternately EXAMPLE 1pm take 2 tylenol, then at 3 pm take 2 asprin and on and on. Tylenol is a fever reducer and pain reliever. Asprin is a fever reducer, pain reliever and antinflamitory

  • never exceed recomended daily dosage of tylenol, can and does cause liver damage*****

Benadryl, Sudafed.

Immodium, Pepcid/tagemet, Tums, Colace

Expectorant cough syurp

09 November 2006

Clawdia – at 01:09

My OTC meds include, but are not limited to: aspirin, Tylenol, Excedrin Migraine, Prilosec, TUMS, Mylanta, Zantac, Imodium, Colace, Metamucil, Gax-X (any simethicone), Meclizine (for nausea if a prescription anti-emetic cannot be obtained), pseudoephedrine, pseudoephedrine/guafenesin/dextromethorphan combination cold/flu relief, Cepacol or Sucrets lozenges, Benadryl, Neosynephrine nose spray, Mucinex, triple antibiotic cream, hydrocortisone cream, cough medicine with dextromethorphan and guafenesin, cough drops, Vicks Vapor Rub, Preparation H, Orajel, moisturing eye drops.

I think quantities must be determined on an individual basis - the method I used was to stock those OTC meds which any of us had needed to use within the past 2 years, in proportionate quantities to what might be needed over an extended period of time (I used 3 years as a rough estimate of time meds might need to last). I tried to always err on the side of caution, attempting to stock more than I think we could possibly need for that period of time. Better to have and not need, than to need and not have.

LauraBat 08:42

DO NOT GIVE ASPIRIN TO ANYONE UNDER 18 YEARS FO AGE.

Don’t forget other things you may run out of if SIP long - yeast infection meds, birth control, other prescription meds, contact solution, first aid supplies, poison ivey/other anti-itch meds.

Kathy in FL – at 11:35

LauraB – at 08:42

I’ve seen that recommendation changed to anyone under the age of 21 years. Not all that long ago it was 16 years of age.

The day after tomorrow – at 12:02

If persons affected end of being bed ridden for more than a day or two, it may have an adverse effect on the bowels. Bromelain has been listed as a putative anti-inflammatory, immunomodulatory, and antidiarrheal. Worth noting bromelain stimulates smooth muscles thus should help allievieate constipation.

I just got some cranberry plus that has bromelain in it. It is also in fresh or crushed pineapple. Which might be easier to get the kids to take. It has to be either fresh or crushed though because the bromelain is actually in the core.

Just some thoughts

Jane – at 15:15

ACETAMINOPHEN RECALL

Store brands recalled because they contain metal fragments. In today’s news thread, Bronco Bill 10:24.

http://www.fda.gov/oc/po/firmrecalls/perrigo/perrigocustlist.html, and the batch list, http://www.fda.gov/oc/po/firmrecalls/perrigo/perrigobatchlist.html. The batch numbers appear on the container’s label.

Jane – at 15:20

The first link is to the store list.

Tooth repair kit, too, is on my list. (Concise is not something I’m valuing here-we don’t know what supply lines will operate, so backup for backups seems reasonable to me, even though it takes a lot of room. For example, salt, vinegar, honey, Vaseline are backups, imo.)

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Monotremes Whereabouts

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Monotremes Whereabouts

07 November 2006

Jumping Jack Flash – at 19:36

If anyone knows where monotreme now posts, please advise on this thread.

Monotreme’s web site, provided by request. We are not responsible for content of other sites. -DemFromCT

KimTat 19:41

This was on the ask questions of the mods thread.

“Monotreme – at 21:27 Hi everyone.

Just so everyone knows, I haven’t made a “Farewell, cruel forum” speech. I will be back every once in a while, as DemFromCT has indicated. I am working on my site which will include a blog and some web pages. I’ll send DemFromCT the URL when it’s done. It will be very rough at first, so don’t expect much. If it works at all, it’ll be a miracle.

I also want to make sure everyone knows that my problem is strictly with anon_22. I have nothing but the highest respect for the other moderators. I think FluWiki will continue to be great place for collaborative work on preparedness and will continue to recommend it to others.

I think anon_22 is highly intelligent and agree with her on many issues. However, I think our world-views are fundamentally incompatible. So it goes. With respect to the thread that started this, she and I disagree on what happened and why it happened. But I don’t want to waste any bandwidth on this subject here. I’ll have a place at my site where people can ask me questions on whatever occurs to them, immodestly called, “Ask Monotreme”. I’m hoping that discussion of these problems on this thread will end so that people can get back to working on preparedness.

Good luck to you all.”

I’m looking forward to reading his site too.

cactus – at 19:44
 Dem put the URL on ask the mods thread;

DemFromCT – at 07:44

  If I knew how I would have copied it,too.;-p

 Went and had a look, but couldn`t get a post to work.
Bird Guano – at 19:51

Guess I shall have to go on a URL hunt in the forest that is “ask the mods” later tonight.

Sigh.

anonymous – at 19:52

http://web.mac.com/monotreme1/iWeb/Pandemic%20Influenza%20Information/Home.html

Kimt – at 19:53

Sorry that was me anonymous – at 19:52

Monotreme – at 19:58

Jumping Jack Flash – at 19:36

Here’s my site

It’s very rudimentary, so don’t expect much, yet. ;-)

cactus – at 19:44

I’ve noticed the problem posting comments with Camino but not Safari. Apple has a spam filter that is applied to every comment. I have no control over it. Once I get some input, I’ll try to post a list of browsers that work and one’s that don’t. If anyone has any problems at the site, feel free to send me an email. You can find it on my profile here or at the new site.

Bump – at 21:22
LauraBat 22:08

mono - the link didn’t work for me.

BTW: hate to see you go! please stick around, or at least LURK a lot!

Northstar – at 22:32

monotreme, the link didn’t work for me either, using Netscape.

Miss your content.

seazar – at 22:35

didn’t work for me either - want to follow your comments so please make sure we know how to find you via the proper link!

thanks for all your contributions to this site…

MaMaat 22:53

I think there’s a temporary difficulty with Monotreme’s site, not a bad link. The link above appears to be the same one I used earlier today. It worked fine earlier to connect to his site, now I just get an apple-mac ‘we’re sorry’ page. Try the link tomorrow, hopefully it’ll be sorted out by then.

Petticoat Junction – at 22:54

The long version of the link didn’t work for me either, but I had no problem when I cut it down to http://web.mac.com/monotreme1/ . It went straight to the page with the longer URL.

Monotreme, I truly hope your forays onto FW will be more than “every once in a while.”

MaMaat 23:01

Thanks Petticoat Juction!

Monotreme – at 23:07

Thanks Petticoat Junction! You’re right that works.

I changed the name of the “Home” page and that screwed up the URL.

This should work: PII

Monotreme – at 23:10

LauraB,

I’ll continue to lurk at Flu Wiki and will post if anything dramatic happens.

And thanks again to everyone for their kind comments.

08 November 2006

crfullmoon – at 10:23

waves hi - because couldn’t post the other day- hiya!.

Monotreme – at 21:17

Hi crfullmoon.

Sorry you couldn’t post. Safari on a Mac works and IE on a PC works according to Bronco Bill (thanks BB).

For everbody else who has been trying to get to my site, I changed the name of the Home Page which changed the URL. This one should work

http://tinyurl.com/ybhgv4

Sorry about that. I promise not to change it again ;-)

Goju – at 21:20

I’m sorry you felt the need to once more divide the flu watching community.

i have been victim to it myself… and I must say it is a bad thing. Its hard enough to follow H5N1 without all this drama and divisivness

Monotreme – at 21:27

Goju – at 21:20

I understand you POV. To me, this was a matter of principle. There is more involved than has been apparent from the comments on the Ask the Moderator thread. I haven’t responded because I didn’t want to waste Flu Wiki’s bandwidth. The bottom-line is that I think there are some very important issues that affect our odds of survival that I no longer feel comfortable discussing here. I really have no choice. Nonetheless, I haven’t “left” FW, as you can see. I’m pretty busy right now, but plan to post here again, especially if things heat up.

As far as “dividing” the community, I think redundancy is a good thing. What do you think will happen to the various flu sites when large numbers of people start to “get it”? We need more Flu sites, not fewer.

Mosaic – at 21:35

«As far as “dividing” the community, I think redundancy is a good thing. What do you think will happen to the various flu sites when large numbers of people start to “get it”? We need more Flu sites, not fewer. »

 I totally agree. I dont think having several good flu sites is a bad thing at all. They each develop their own flavor. The more good ones, the merrier.
Orlandopreppie – at 22:44

I’m glad to know where to find Monotreme. Without sounding sacharine, I find comfort in him and his information that I don’t find in certain others and I can’t explain why. I was so angry last night as I read the moderators thread that I wrote a scathing post…but didn’t post it. It wouldn’t do any good as I’m just a poor slob with my own opinions that carry no weight here. There is enough information I need to learn that will keep me coming here and I still enjoy the wit, humor and intellect of most others but there is definately a different tone than there was back in May when I joined in. It is very sad, and I’m one who has learned to love change.

Snowhound1 – at 23:34

Please see Monotreme’s post at 21:17 for the correct link to his new site. Thanks

Goju – at 23:34

great, now i have more places to look for info. Just great. NOT.

It’s the virus thats out there while we are busy squabbling. Insane.

gharris – at 23:59

09 November 2006

Clawdia – at 00:32

Goju, if you think all that was just “squabbling”, I don’t know why you bother to be here reading it. I thought far more was involved than that. I agree with Mosaic that the more the merrier, insofar as flu sites go - no one has a monopoly on information, or discussion. That’s as it should be.

If one cannot comfortably say what one needs or wants to say in one place, then one should be able to find a place where that comfort is found. It seems a pity that that can’t take place without anyone feeling like a “victim”.

ANON-YYZ – at 00:40

Clawdia – at 00:32

I really have no problem going to 5 sites and reading 5 group-thinks. I just have to blend them in my own mind. Any higher number and I will lose the train of thought.

Goju – at 00:47

I currently go to 8 daily. Boy, there are some great minds at work and at watch out there. Imagine if they were all in one place discussing the same issues. At times one site or another experiences that… and the experience is awesome.

Now i have 9 to watch.

So… advice… if i have something very important to say, I need to say it in at least 9 places to get various opinions. Which site would be the most important to get the largest and best opinions? or would you just expect different one sided opinions from each site?

H5N1 - 1 Humans - 0

ANON-YYZ – at 00:53

Goju – at 00:47

As the pandemic gets closer and closer, I can see people’s view points harden even more. Every one thinks he/she has the best approach. That’s the unfortunate reality. May be it’s in our DNA. H5N1 wins over us.

lugon – at 03:47

Interesting approach, Goju and ANON-YYZ!

We should do some biomimicry magic here. What does the virus do that we should copy or emulate? How can we emulate it? (I can think of some answers but I’d rather leave it open for others. You’re all more interesting than me - at least to me.)

Monotreme – at 08:50

Goju, I appreciate your concern but I have 2 points:

1. The flu community is very small, currently. Once we are successful, it will grow very fast. I have my doubts as to whether the servers of the currently availble boards will be able to handle the load. In the case, having many nodes will be an advantage.

2. My problem here is not squabbling. I have no problem with people disagreeing with me. However, there is a very important issue related to flu preparedness that can no longer be discussed here. I would be failing in my mission to help prepare people if I did not discuss it. Note, it’s not a matter of “venting”, it’s a matter of warning people what’s going on so they can take appropriate action. A blind spot on certain country is hazardous to our health. I don’t know if you’ve read this, but it’s an example of the sort of thing that cannot be said here, and why.

Monotreme – at 08:51

Yikes, I don’t know what happened to the last post. I really didn’t mean to scream point 1.

Sorry.

cottontop – at 09:04

Monotreme-

It certainly woke me up!!!

crfullmoon – at 09:05

easier size for my eyes to read ;-)

Good morning!

cottontop – at 09:08

crfullmoon-

LOL!!! I’ll agree with that!

DemFromCTat 09:10

I’ll fix that, Monotreme. Redundancy is actually a good thing. We know we can’t rely on our current software, server situation; there are longer term issues to deal with.

Flu prep has to be more objective, less emotion-driven. That’s not a knock on anyone… we all go through that when we first start. and I will post Monotreme’s link at the start of this thread for easy access. We’ll find a place for it on the Links and Resources page as well.

OTOH, vague veiled references to China are unnecessary and overly dramatic. We all have issues with every government in the world as to how quickly and effectively they are helping their citizens prep. But in that regard, we need more dry facts and less drama.

The web is a big place, and we encourage everyone to click links and use multiple resources. We never intended Flu Wiki to be the only source you should use. Like wikipedia, resources like this should be a starting point and not an end point.

DemFromCTat 09:15

Monotreme, you used a ! instead of a 1.

Goju – at 09:25

I have heard about servers crashing from all the traffic. I’ve also heard that the web will go down when everyone leaves their offices, stays home and goes online. IMHO the web traffic will just move from offices to homes. And insofar as sites crashing? If we could all agree on one site and “harden” it i see no reason for it to crash.

But alas this will never come to pass because we all have our own agendas. Even me I guess.

Mine is to stay alive.

crfullmoon – at 09:36

(Wonder what my computer is doing? “The characters you entered do not match the image” Three different tries. Oh well. I should be getting my finances, and my house, in order, instead of being online, anyway.)

If I ever have anything more important than waving hello to Monotreme, I’ll figure out a way around.

Bronco Bill – at 09:43

Goju – at 09:25 --- If’n I remember correctly, The Crash of March here at FW was not caused by traffic from the web, but instead by the large number of open threads that were sitting on the server. The Mods have since been very diligent about keeping the number of current threads down to a relatively acceptable level, and have set up a seperate, stand-alone server for each of the FluWiki sites—Wiki, and Forum.

What you’ve heard may or may not be true about “the web” going down when everyone stays home. I figure that at night, when most people are home anyway, a lot of them are on the Internet and it hasn’t crashed yet. If there are sporadic power outages in many places, that will eliminate those computers from ‘net access, and many people may be just too busy trying to find food and water to sit and surf the ‘net. Workers who stay home and work won’t add to the traffic ‘cuz it doesn’t really matter if they’re in an office or at home…they’re still on the Internet.

Monotreme – at 10:01

DemFromCT – at 09:10

Thanks for fixing my mistake !

Actually, I think there is lots of factual information on what China is doing to suppress information regarding H5N1. I am working on putting all together in one place and will let you know when it’s done. You’ll be free to critique it ;-)

Goju, putting all of one’s eggs in one basket is never a good idea, IMO. That was kinda the whole point of the internet. I think once we have big clusters and/or the MSM really gets serious, the interest level in flu sites will go through the roof. It’s not that overall internet activity will be too high, it’s that it will become focused on flu rather than celebrity divorces.

Bronco Bill – at 11:02

it will become focused on flu rather than celebrity divorces.

Thank you. One of my biggest pet pieves about band-width waste!

History Lover – at 12:51

But if we could get one of these celebrity divorcees to be our spokesperson, we could kill two birds with one stone (would that be enough birds to stop the pandemic?).

newprepper – at 13:21
newprepper – at 13:24

Sorry about that blank post. Would you mind sharing some of the additional flu websites that find useful. Thanks in advance.

DemFromCTat 13:49

the Links anrd Resources page is here.

Mosaic – at 15:06

I personally like having several totally different flu sites. They are like the various Christian denominations. They may believe in the same diety, but the details are different. The flu sites each have their own form and flavor, calmness level, degree of speculation, participants, chit-chat and humor, depth of thought, and scientific validity. I have 3 favorites that I check almost daily, and now M’s new one makes 4.

If you want to see a lot of new folks, just wait for the first human case of BF that is diagnosed in New York or London, be it pandemic flu or from a bird. Katy bar the door. Or should I say ‘doors’.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / The Public Engagement Project on Community Control Measures Register Now

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: The Public Engagement Project on Community Control Measures Register Now

26 October 2006

Science Teacher – at 11:54

ASTHO (Association of State and Territorial Health Officials) is sponsering conferences in Atlanta, Seattle, Lincoln and Syracuse. Their purpose is to get input from “ordinary’ citizens on 5 elements dealing with pandemic control measures in the community:

The package of control measures being considered consists of the following 5 elements:

“Home stays for household contacts of ill persons for up to 7 days.

Isolation of ill persons at home if hospitalization not required.

Preventing children and teenagers from congregating by closing school from grades K-12, closing day care centers; and not allowing children to recongregate outside of schools and day care settings.

Canceling events where large numbers of persons are expected to gather.

Work pattern changes allowing liberal leave policies, increased telecommuting, and using alternate work locations. Work Products: Participants in both the local and national meetings will be asked to discuss the potential benefits and harms to individuals and society at large and to weigh the tradeoffs associated with each element of the proposed community control measures against pandemic influenza. The underlying values espoused in making these choices will be articulated and elucidated in the report.

While the citizens at large will dialogue and deliberate separately and produce their viewpoints, the purpose and responsibility of the national stakeholder group will be to integrate the citizens’ viewpoints into its deliberations and to produce an overall “societal perspective” on community control measures for pandemic influenza. This perspective will be used to inform the decision making of federal officials seeking to issue federal guidance to states on community control measures for pandemic influenza.”

CDC is one of the participating organizations.

I signed up for the one in Syracuse, NY. Wouldn’t it be nice if we could get knowledgeable people from here to attend?

Here is the link to read about and register: http://tinyurl.com/ygydzf

BUMP – at 12:21
BUMP – at 16:56
Bump – at 22:01

27 October 2006

Science Teacher – at 11:58

Here is more information on the conferences. They are looking for community members to participate.

 The Public Engagement Project on Community Control Measures for Pandemic Influenza 

This important initiative is being sponsored by The Keystone Center and Association of State and Territorial Health Officials (ASTHO).

Participating organizations: Association of State and Territorial Health Officials (ASTHO) | New Jersey Department of Health & Senior Services | Center for Biopreparedness Education-Omaha | Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC) | F.O.C.U.S. (Forging Our Community’s United Strength) Greater Syracuse | Georgia Department of Human Resources–Division of Public Health | Infectious Disease Society of America | National Association of County & City Health Officials (NACCHO) | Nebraska Health & Human Services System | New York State Department of Health | Public Health–Seattle & King County | Searcy, Weems-Scott & Cleare | The Keystone Center | United Parcel Service (UPS) | U.S. Department of Education | U.S. Department of Health & Human Services

For detailed information on community meetings or for registration options click on links below (All community meetings 9 AM to 3 PM): Updated October 26, 2006 |

 To register via phone for regional meetings contact Sierra Trujillo at 1–800–219–6670 | For website questions contact S. Cheval at 970–513–5837 | Documents: Fact Sheet | Key contacts  

Atlanta, Georgia Saturday, October 28, 2006

Seattle, Washington Saturday, November 4, 2006

Lincoln, Nebraska Saturday, November 18, 2006

Background: This project will take place from October through November 2006 to engage citizens and stakeholders in discussions and deliberations about the tradeoffs associated with community control measures which might be implemented early on against pandemic influenza.

To conduct this public engagement, the sponsors will make use of the Policy Analysis CollaborativE (PACE),* an innovative model for engaging both the organized stakeholder public made up of groups such as professional health societies, business groups, and education associations, and the general public made up of citizens-at-large.

Engagement of both publics will help inform the development of a sound national strategy and help build public support for whatever guidance is finally adopted.”

Group Process: The group processes will be structured to provide essential information to the participants, permit them to engage in give-and-take discussion with diverse participants in small groups, to weigh tradeoffs, and to reach a collective viewpoint on the question of primary interest.

This question is the following: In the event of a severe pandemic, should U.S. communities implement early on, and across several communities at once, a package of control measures (see sidebar at right) intended to slow the spread of disease?

If not, why not?

If yes, what are the anticipated problems in implementing such control measures and what solutions might be possible for these problems?

The meetings will be organized by The Keystone Center, a neutral facilitator organization. They will be sequenced first to allow citizens-at-large to complete their deliberations in late October and November followed by the deliberations of the national stakeholder panel in late November. Representatives from the citizen groups will attend the final deliberations along with the stakeholder representatives.

back to top

Participants:

Two to three representatives from the organized stakeholder public will be chosen from approximately ten major sectors likely to be most affected by the control measures (e.g., education, business, etc) to form a 30–40 member national level panel.

The representatives will be convened by The Keystone Center and ASTHO working in collaboration with a Steering Group selected from these same stakeholder groups. Other participants will include those with expertise on influenza, ethics, and public engagement.

To outreach to the larger public, a sample of 400 citizens from the general public representative of the population by age, race, and sex will be chosen from each of the four principal areas of the United States—the North, South, Mid-west, and West (100 citizens-at-large from each area). The participating areas which have been selected are Seattle-Washington, Syracuse-New York, Atlanta-Georgia and Lincoln-Nebraska.

To register via phone for any of these regional meetings contact Sierra Trujillo at 1–800–219–6670.

Other links of interest:

Science Teacher – at 12:10

Link: http://tinyurl.com/urtwa

banshee – at 13:36

Science Teacher, This looks like it would be a very interesting conference. Is “Community Control Measures” the new terminology for quarentine? It does sound nicer. :)

Can you please report back to us what you hear at the conference?

Science Teacher – at 17:29

banshee, I’ll be glad to report back. It does look like they will be focusing on local measures for community SIP.

So many posters here have commented on the lack of opportunity for everyday citizens to have input on community policies. This is the first opportunity I have seen to do so at a national level. I’m a bit surprised that no one here seems to be interested. Thank you for posting!

senegal1 – at 18:04

Will there be any of these in the Washington DC area?

Cherokee Rose – at 19:33

senegal1 – at 18:04

Syracuse, NY would be the closest to DC.

I’ll be at the Atlanta meeting tomorrow.

CR

28 October 2006

Science Teacher – at 01:17

Have fun at your meeting, Cherokee, and please let us know how it went.

anon_22 – at 01:45

For those of you intending to participate in these meetings, I would recommend getting familiar with Targeted Layered Containment or TLC which is the main concept driving policy at the moment.

Those who want more details or the basis of such policies should also read the IOM thread.

Goju – at 02:09

This is exactly what my town needs

Science Teacher – at 11:25

Thanks, anon_22. I have been following the IOM thread and printed out information on both threads. It always helps me to know the participants POV as much as possible in advance.

Goju, all our towns need this. I get the impression that this series of conferences may be the PTB ‘testing the water’ to see how the public will react to their policies. Since both state health department and national groups like the CDC are involved, I think it is imperative to ‘seed’ these meetings with flu savy individuals. At the worst it will be a crowd of unimformed citizens that will be easy to sway to the POV being set by the speakers. They will also pick some individuals to attend the National conference in Washington, DC.

This will effect both of our towns. Anyway you can attend one of these?

anon_22 – at 13:07

You should get as many informed Fluwikians as possible to these meetings. My sense is that local officials generally have no idea which are the better interventions. The problem is when they either don’t do anything or do the wrong things. If you can add your inputs supported with evidence from experts, not only will these be unrefutable, they will also more likely listen to what else you have to say. So make sure you understand what you are saying. Practice with someon else who can ask questions that you will try to answer.

JV – at 13:23

anon_22 -

I am going to the meeting in Seattle on Nov 4th. A friend of mine will accompany me, and we are going to go over all of this info together, beforehand. She and I will have the same list of questions and statements to discuss at this meeting. It has been hard to get others to commit to go.

I also alerted a prominent and influential pharmacist I know about this meeting. She can’t go because of her position, but she is trying to get other knowledgeable people to go. I have given much info to her off this site, and today, I will give her more copied sheets from the “TLC” and “IMO Workshop” threads. I have alread given her Inky’s flyer to hand out in her pharmacy. This pharmacist is on the same page as we all are re how devastating this pandemic could be. She indicated that TPTB, re at least our county, are tentatively planning on distributing vaccine (poorly matched) and Tamiflu should an outbreak occur. This is only tentative, and plans for where and how have not been made.

Science Teacher – at 14:50

Thanks for the advice, Annon_22. I will even more well versed by the time the Syracuse meeting comes around on Nov. 18th. Any ideas on how to get more fluwikians to sign up?

JV, so glad to hear you are going to the Seattle meeting!

We should hear a summary from Cherokee Rose in a few days as she is attending the one in Atlanta today. That should give us a better idea of the kinds of rebuttals we will need.

MAinVAat 15:35

Interesting that I suggested this to two of my friends in Syracuse — both work in Early Intervention, have had experience running programs in cooperation with both the county and a major hospital in the area and are currently in well-placed positions in private companies working with programs for children. They both attempted to register and were told [quoting from an email] “Looks like we have to get chosen to go, so won’t know right away if we get chosen.” Wonder what the criteria for being “chosen” might be?

In the meantime, I have sent them copies of the IOM thread and additional information on “community issues” found on fluwiki.

Olymom – at 15:41

JV, I hope you will bring up the importance of EARLY school closure, and, just as important, the education that has to happen so families are ready when they hear “no school for the rest of the month”. Thank you for the time you are putting into this.

JV – at 16:15

Olymom,

I will absolutely bring that up. I will discuss social distancing completely.

One of the points I want to bring up early on is that they will be asking all of their questions without a backdrop of how severe this pandemic could be (I assume). The answers to the question of “Who is willing to do what?” are very different if the CFR is 0.01% versus 5% - 20%.

I will also discuss the fact that people have to be informed better, properly, and NOW that this is on the horizon. Given time, the community “hive mind” can prep and find better solutions for everything. The ultimate CFR and our children’s lives depend on prepping and networking BEFORE a pandemic occurs, and social distancing just before/as it arrives.

I have a friend who is a single mother with two kids about my son’s age (17). We have talked over a long time about this pandemic. We have agreed that if this disaster pandemic occurs, she and her children will come to live with my family, for months or much longer if need be. I have enough stockpiled so that we could all SIP for 1.5 years. She will, hopefully, be able to bring some of her stockpiled items, but I have EVERYTHING we will need. Now how would that have been possible if I had not been alerted a long time ago that this pandemic could be so severe…if suddenly I found out a pandemic would hit in 3 days? Obviously, not everyone can do this, but enough people could not only stockpile at least on a small scale, but also decide on arrangements to be made to help others in their community.

The government is presently preventing the understanding of what could happen with this pandemic. Therefore, they are preventing people helping themselves, and their communities. The truth will really hurt if it is known what could happen during a pandemic and the extent of shortages (including possibly no mecial care). But, then with the truth, the collective hive mind can set to work so that the extent of the CRF can diminish. When the government is honest (and in the end we will all know if they have been or not), then the people will follow their direction. Trust from the people will only come after honesty from the government.

Also, it would be great if after each of these conferences those who attend would write up their summaries so that the group that goes to the next conference will see how it went. Our summaries could provide insite as to how to approach topics.

Science Teacher – at 18:45

JV and Olymom, you both bring up good points and I will try my best to address them also.

Here is a copy of the registration form:

“We need your voice!” __________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ participants to this meeting who reflect our population, please following information (optional): ��18–30 years ��30–50 years ��50 and above ��Male ��Female select more than one category): ��Black (or African American) Latino ��Multi-Cultural ��Other ��White guardian of children 18 or younger? ��No

Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC) | Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC) | F.O.C.U.S. (Forging Our Communities United Strength) F.O.C.U.S. (Forging Our Communities United Strength) Georgia Department of Human Resources | Nebraska Health & Human Services System | New York State Georgia Department of Human You can tell from the questions that they are trying to balance the registrants based on age, sex, ethnicity and dependent children.

 Perhaps your friends, JV, fell into an already filled category.  I got in right away because I registered for it right away and I am in the over 50 category.

I read that they are going to present their background information to the participants before the discussion begins. I guess that would be a good time to ask questions about the parameters they are have set for the purpose of their moderated discussions.

MAinVAat 19:35

Science Teacher, I believe you may have been addressing my post regarding my friends being told they have to be “chosen,” not JV. In the hope that they will be able to attend, I am still supplying them with links and other info because all three of us believe it will also prove useful in their own work with their respective companies and organizations.

Bump - Bronco Bill – at 20:21
Influentia2 – at 20:42

I don’t wish to hijack your thread but want to comment on how lucky you are to have events like this in your area. When I bring up this subject where I live people look at me like I have two heads. Even the Health Department couldn’t or wouldn’t answer any questions. Instead I was offered a course on what to prepare for two weeks of isolation. The meetings that were held for schools and businesses were for schools and businesses I couldn’t attend as I represented neither. There hasn’t been an article in the local paper on pandemic planning since May 2006. I know that surrounding counties are much more ahead of the game than we are here. Anyway, not to take up this thread but I cannot wait to hear how this all goes and what effect you can make attending these meetings. Good Luck.

29 October 2006

lugon – at 03:43

Let’s hope the effect will go beyond the local.

anon_22 – at 04:15

I heard from the grapevine some good words about knowledgeable participants from Flu Wiki from the Atlanta meeting.

:-)

Cherokee Rose – at 18:26

Flu Wiki ALONE was specifically named by the Keystone Center as having a critical role in Pandemic Flu education and the website info given :-).

anon_22 – at 18:27

OMG!

You should have posted that in bold.

Here,

Flu Wiki ALONE was specifically named by the Keystone Center as having a critical role in Pandemic Flu education and the website info given :-).

Science Teacher – at 18:49

That is AWESOME!

mj – at 18:56

Bold and Red and CAPS. Wow! You folks must have rocked the confernce and the world.

Cherokee Rose – at 21:03

Flu Wiki was given credit at the BEGINNING of the meeting - in the opening comments before ANY citizen participants said a word

Credit Goes to FLU WIKI :-)

(I hope my trip to the sandbox paid off!)

mj – at 21:07

WOW!!!!!!!!! Did you sit up a bit taller as our rep?

Cherokee Rose – at 21:25

What I felt was grateful and proud - of Flu Wiki and of the folks who’ve been guiding me along at both Flu Wiki and another board. Once I was “sold” there was no turning back (I’m just not that kind of person - if the evidence is there, I can’t ignore it), but I can’t imagine what preparing and educating my family and friends about pandemic influenza would be like without these incredible resources.

I was stepping out of my personal box simply by signing up and attending.

My hope is that those who participate in the conferences in Washington, New York and Nebraska will feel more confident about speaking up and speaking wisely. I also hope that more will come to the Wiki - to read and learn and ask questions - and be inspired to get INVOLVED.

Goju – at 21:36

CR - the boards were instumental in my participation at the NYC conference last sept. I was the most knowledgable person out of the 200+ high level Biz participants there. It was a weird feeling. Good job… Please post any notes you took or observations you made.

senegal1 – at 21:39

I am very interested in seeing your report. I just posted mine on the conference I attended on Disaster Roundtable 18: Citizen Engagement in Emergency Planning for a Flu Pandemic. It was an eye opener if only to see how underprepared policy makers still are even though we are on the same page generally for how severe this could be. Painful.

DemFromCTat 22:57

Congrats to all the citizen participants. You do us proud. ;−0

30 October 2006

Bump – at 19:00

31 October 2006

anon_22 – at 08:30

01 November 2006

anon_22 – at 03:42

Is anyone going to the Seattle one? The above posts about Atlanta tells us that they are quite keen on getting input from the public but especially knowledgeable folks who read FluWiki. So if you are at all able to go, here’s the info:

WHEN:: Saturday, November 4, 2006 | 9 am to 3 pm

WHERE:: Northgate Community Center, 10510 5th Avenue NE, Seattle (across from Macy’s at Northgate Mall) FEE: free of charge, with breakfast, lunch & refreshments provided.

PARKING: Parking is free at the Northgate Community Center, or across the street at Northgate Mall. The Northgate Park & Ride is 3 blocks away.

REGIISTER:: To register for this important citizen group, please call Public Health-Seattle & King County at 206–296–4313, or 1–800–219–6670.

To register on-line: please go to www.metrokc.gov/health/panfluforum

To register by fax: complete form on back and fax to 303–468–8866.

To register by e-mail: send information requested on back of form to strujillo@keystone.org


I gather that opinions gathered from this series of meetings will be incorporated into recommendations for policymaking as part of the process on this next slide:

anon_22 – at 03:47

The other 2 meetings are in

both on Saturday, November 18, 2006

If you have opinions about what should be done for your community to mitigate a pandemic, this is the chance to speak up!

lugon – at 05:04

is it true that writers of policies are listening? go!

anon_22 – at 05:07

lugon, yes.

anon_22 – at 05:08

Correction, they won’t just be listening. They will be obliged to write up your opinions into official reports.

So GO!

lugon – at 06:11

whose opinions? US citizens? then please go on behalf of others! please!!!!

2beans – at 06:59

I hope we’re all feeling the appropriate amount of gratitude to Melanie right now. I’m sure everyone wishes her well, hopes for her speedy return and takes delight in the absolute VINDICATION she mst be feeling right now in having the foresight to establish the wiki. Don’t want to think about where we’d all be without it.

JV – at 10:41

anon_22 -

I am going to the Seattle meeting. I have copied off all your info re TLC. I have gathered quite a bit of info to discuss with them. A friend of mine will come with me. Hopefully we can both make an impact.

I have tried to get others to come, but there are always so many reasons they can’t.

I am committed to discussing all the major points re TLC. I also need to make sure everybody there understands that answers to questions re TLC can only be addressed after the statement of what CFR we are talking about. People will be more agreeable to TLC if the CFR is 20% compared to 0.01%. Also, I will make the undeniable statement that people simply can’t comply well with TLC or SIP, etc, if they have not been given the time to prep and network in their community. This takes a LOT of time! Therefore, someone, in authority, needs to be REALLY informing people what is on the horizon, the potential CFR, and the need to prep SOON.

Anon_22 and others: If you wish to suggest a particular point for me not to miss, please do. I will be reviewing all my stuff soon so that I can be speaking clearly. I really do wish to make a positive impact and guide TPTB in the right direction to help us all.

If someone else here is going, let me know. I will make sure to contact you there.

pablo escobar – at 11:12

I will be there. Had to cancel another trip to do it, but felt it would be worthwhile. I am not a quiet or shy man.

JV – at 11:19

pablo -

Great! I will see you there!

lugon – at 11:24

2beans – at 06:59

You bet.

anon_22 – at 11:32

JV,

So glad you are going!

I understand and agree with your point about CFR. But I see some risk of losing your audience (other people in the room) if you go too far down that route for 2 reasons 1) they have a lot of catching up to do to fully understand your argument, and 2) there’s a danger of appearing fanatical, or a chance for someone else to paint you as fanatical.

So I would suggest go over it lightly and clearly so that it is on the record (remember what this is for), but then go back to a more moderate stance after that.

That’s just my suggestion, you should go do whatever you feel is the right thing.

And come back and share with us. Good luck!

Goju – at 11:42

Focus on the ages infected.. 80% under 29 years old and 50% under 20.

Its our kids who are at risk.

JV – at 12:15

anon_22 -

I understand exactly what you are saying re the CFR. I am absolutely not fanatical by nature in public! I suppose I could sound that way in the Internet because I feel so stongly about this subject. But, I will not appear that way in public!

1. I will simply make the point about the CFR, because I want it to go down on the record.

2. I will make all the points re TLC.

3. I will point out our kids are at risk (80% under 29, 50% under 20).

4. I will emphasize early school closure…especially because of # 3.

5. I will make it clear that the public needs to be informed well, and early, by someone in authority in order to prep and network.

I feel I somewhat represent Fluwiki, but I will not say that. I plan to present myself well so that others will respect what I have to say…nothing fanatical!

I will write down all that I can at the forum and present it here, hopefully, Nov 4th evening. I think all that is said will also help people going to the next two conferences.

anon_22 – at 12:50

Thanks, JV.

Also, check your mailbox. I just passed a message to you.

02 November 2006

anon_22 – at 19:25

bump for attention

anon_22 – at 19:32

Anyone else live near the Seattle area? Check out the info on 03:42 post,

09 November 2006

BUMP – at 12:11

BUMP

In case anyone is wondering, this is the ASTHO project that LisaGP wrote about.

Next round of conferences, November 18th.

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.ThePublicEngagementProjectOnCommunityControlMeasuresRegisterNow
Page last modified on November 09, 2006, at 12:11 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Report on Disaster Roundtable 18 Citizen Engagement in Emergency Planning for a Flu Pandemic

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Report on Disaster Roundtable 18 Citizen Engagement in Emergency Planning for a Flu Pandemic

29 October 2006

senegal1 – at 21:28

This is my summary of the October 23rd Disaster Roundtable which I attended along with Anon 22 and DRD 191.

The following link has all the reports on it from the speakers. I will highlight only a few here. http://dels.nas.edu/dr/f18.shtml

Session 1: A. What Would a Modern Day Flu Pandemic Look Like? Eric Toner, Center for Biosecurity, University of Pittsburg Medical Center.

I missed part of this session but here are the figures from the Health and Human Services for a moderate and a severe pandemic. This presentation gives you a sense of what HHS is thinking.

The scenarios pretty much follow the thinking on this forum. Lots of death, overwhelmed hospitals, no vaccines, few anti-virals, limited useful non-medical interventions and limited medical ones. Goes to Leavitt`s oft quoted statement about any unprepared community thinking the Federal Government will rescue them will be tragically wrong.

B. National Plans for Confronting a Pandemic Flu, Bruce Gellin, National Vaccine Program Office, Department of Health and Human Services

Again no sugar coating here. Same numbers as above and recognition that worse could happen. Main points that I got out of it. Tamiflu is not in short supply – something that Roche sent out a press release on not too long ago and forget a vaccine. Pretty much all the points that have been discussed on Flu Wikie (such as extending a vaccine with an adjunct, pre-vaccination to create some immunity, changing methodology for vaccine creation (non egg-based), expand current production) were discussed and there was no silver bullet.

There was a discussion on changing priorities for access to vaccinations from normal flu – vaccinate high risk person to pandemic flu – vaccinate essential workers working in essential infrastructure and vaccinate high risk populations after.

In one slide we saw the underlying assumptions of the Federal Pandemic Planning: the concerning part is as the speaker pointed out “the determination to use all instruments of national power”. That language is specifically chosen. Probably includes martial law being enforced and suspension of civil liberties.

The goal of all of this is not to stop a pandemic but rather to blunt the peak of the pandemic and reduce its peak severity.

Finally, there was my favorite slide talking about how this Pandemic has become a plandemic!

C. Local Expectations and Readiness for Pandemic Flu, Joshua Sharfstein, Commissioner of Health, Department of Health, Baltimore

He noted that at the local level dealing with health issues in a major cities is basically a crisis a day and that it is even harder to sustain interest in planning at the local level than at the national level. In addition, cities have to plan to numerous ambitious goals for various levels of disasters from being able to evacuate a city in 24 hours, to being able to supply antibiotics to all in case of an Anthrax attach to pandemic flu. Also the work must be done through numerous local groups many of whom have lawyers. The danger is bouncing between fear and being overwhelmed. He noted that the money from the Federal Government for Pandemic Flu basically just offset cuts on his staff and did not represent an increase. Main point: its really hard at the local level.

Session II. Why Government and Health Professional Cannot Go It Alone in a Large-Scale Health Crisis.

A. Public Resistance or Cooperation? A Tale of Smallpox in Two Cities, Judith W. Leavitt, School of Medicine, University of Wisconsin, Madison

I really recommend that everyone take a look at this presentation. To me this was one of the most important presentations given. This is a comparison between two different Directors of Public Health in major cities in the US dealing with public health outbreaks. One uses a heavy handed approach and ends up with distrust, non-compliance, and riots and the other seeks open communication, creation of trust in all populations in the city, and consistent actions and communications and ends up with one of the lowest death rates of all cities. To me this one points out the need to have a set of ethical considerations be the basis of pandemic planning. We need the decision makers who will have to make hard decisions in crisis moments to heed a set of ethics that we generally all agree with. Without trust you can not ask for nor will you receive cooperation. Thus we need to know that communication will be complete and open. That all populations will be fairly dealt with and none will have differentiated treatment. We need a signed statement of ethics from our Mayors, Our Directors of Public Health, etc.

B. Street Science: Why Public Health Professionals Need the Public, Jason Corburn, Columbia Unversity

Another excellent presentation however the link does not open. Basically, pointed out that we are pigeon-holing populations when we bring in expert scientists who prescribe to people rather than listen to people about what is happening to them. We are missing the street wisdom and therefore missing the ability to gain compliance and empower populations. Street Wisdom understands that everyone has some expertise to lend to an understanding of how things work in their communities and without this understanding and buyin from the community compliance is not forthcoming.

C. Who Will Tell the People? Pandemic Risk Communication in the Internet Age Susan Chu, Flu Wiki

Great presentation by a well-know Fluwikian – although I may be a bit biased here! Who will tell the people — why Flu Wiki of course!

Session III. When Does Citizen Engagement Work Best? Lessons Learned from Research and Experience.

There were three presentations. Basically, I thought these were off the mark. Two of them talked about large efforts to pull in stakeholders from around the country into giving input for various health policy decisions. The efforts were ungainly and expensive. The last one was less than understandable. Basically, there seemed to be a real lack of awareness about the seriousness of the situation and no feeling of a short time line. These presentation seemed to be more about planning for planning and policy making sake.

Finally, Session IV Roundtable Panel Discussion – How Can Some Citizens Help When Hospitals Must Turn Some People Away in a Pandemic? On the panel were: Gabor Kelen, Deparment of Emergency Medicine, John Hopkins University; Randy Rowel, School of Public Health and Policy, Morgan State University; Darlene Sparks, Washington, Disease Prevention Education, American Red Cross; and Susan Messina, Citizen-Activist

The main idea here was to try to come up with a dialogue between different stake holders on this topic. I don`t think the roundtable worked too well as the guests were way too timid about understanding and thinking about a real pandemic situation. Only two examples: when asked by the moderator what his emergency room would do with an influx of pandemic flu patients, Mr. Kelen simply said he would close the emergency room to flu patients and force them to go somewhere else unspecified. He also had no alternative help for them. (Ok so all you folks living in Baltimore who thought you could go to John Hopkins – forget it!) So then the moderator turns to the citizen activist and says Well as a mother of small kids how would you feel about that? She then goes off on some well you have to realize the problems the community is facing tangent. Clueless. I learned more from the people who got up to ask questions: One point being that the D-Mort Team – volunteer morticians who work on disasters have only 10 trucks and would be unable to respond since they would be dealing with local disasters. Also that there are only 400 medical examers in the US and they would have to sign the death certificates of people not buried in mass graves and they would be overwhelmed too.

Overall, an interesting day but the main points I took away where:

Too many plans no real action.

The plan has become the point.

Not enough gut level feeling at the intermediate policy level about how quickly this could really become a crisis.

We are not really talking about education or awareness. We need to start thinking and working for a cultural change — which is much harder. We need our doctors to talk about this with their patients (and that does not necessarily mean Tamiflu). The stigma of talking about this is worse than the beginning of the AIDs epidemic. If your doctor does not take this seriously why should you?

We need a culture of community resilence which would value being prepared and which is re-enforced in many ways whether social, professional, religious, or whatever. Creating cultural change to value preparedness not just for a pandemic but for other things is very hard.

I asked the room how many people there had actually tried to get a group together to talk about Pandemic Flu? About a 5th of the people in the room had. These were public health professionals and they hadn`t even been trying to organize a response although many are called upon to do just that in their jobs. Frightening.

To best sum it up: Our guy from John Hopkins pointed out that although he knows the dangers and believes them, he himself is not prepared and his sole prep is having some water in his basement. One plea I made was that those of us of the engaged public on the ground needed their help to make an impact on our local communities. While this health profession community may have heard me in theory – they didn`t understand nor hear me in the reality. Secretary Leavitt`s statement still unfortunately rings true even in the preparation stage. We are SOL for outside help and your local community is where the rubber will hit the road.

Science Teacher – at 23:05

This is an excellent report Senegal and very thought provoking.

Sounds a bit like a dog going round and round chasing its own tail. These folks that have the power to bring about change are caught in the vortex of theory vs. reality.

30 October 2006

Goju – at 00:38

Senegal - Fantastic report - thank you for covering the meeting so well.

What impacts me the most is the plandemic. At the NYC conference I attended, the same emphasis was given… whatever plan you have… do it now. tweek it as you go… but the time for making the plans is over.

Scary when you think about what they are saying.

anon_22 – at 22:26

I missed this thread completely. The slides that I used are available from the ftp. The intellectual basis behind the Flu Wiki idea, including ‘The Wisdom of Crowds’, requirements for a successful forum, and the possible use of Wiki’s for local and special niche groups for pandemic are explored. Also some fun stuff about ‘anti-BS factor’.

anon_22 – at 22:31

Also, I had a run-in with the person representing the Canadian Health Agency, who thinks that I am less than totally objective when I suggested that a sense of urgency might be appropriate, since I ‘live and breathe this’ whereas they ‘have plenty of other disasters to worry about’.

Since when does paying special attention to one issue make one less qualified to talk about that one issue?

And since when does risk assessment include giving equal attention to all risks irrespective of the likelihood or impact of said risks?

Anyhow, it wasn’t the best conference that I’ve been to, notwithstanding the fact that I did get to speak in it.

anon_22 – at 22:34

Oh, one more thing. It scares me even now to tell you this but a couple of the speakers who will remain unnamed were completely unaware of how many people have been infected by the H5N1 virus and how many have died.

They were talking about this in the most theoretical way. So they were shocked when I told them at the break about 67% CFR.

And I was shocked that they didn’t know….

31 October 2006

crfullmoon – at 07:47

(“Mr. Kelen simply said he would close the emergency room to flu patients” -how will he tell who is contagious and not looking sick yet? WHO/Hu/ChinesePanFlu won’t stay out of the hospitals long, with no way to tell who’s been exposed.

“a couple of the speakers who will remain unnamed were completely unaware of how many people have been infected by the H5N1 virus and how many have died.”

“What happens? Nothing. Not even ice cream. The gods look down and laugh.” (Groucho Marx)

02 November 2006

senegal1 – at 20:22

I was pretty happy that Anon 22 was at the conference and her talk was great. Yes I blanced at the level of discussion on some of the topics which was so theory driven and without an understanding of the reality. Some of the other talks were right to the point. It was a very uneven conference but the information on using social wisdom and the points about trust and open communication hit home with me.

03 November 2006

Annoyed Max- Not mad yet – at 09:47

Im surprised at the john hopkins info. I participated in the clinical trial for the vaccine there and got to ask many questions to people that dident look at me like I was crazy. That was a rare change at the time. I was told that the hospital put one person in charge and they had this grandiose plan of setting up massive tents all around the hospital to triage and treat patients. Maybe that plan has been tossed especially in light of when I asked the nurses if it was 1918 or worse would they really come to work and most responded that they would suddenly be experiencing “car trouble.” (with such “excellent” planning could you blame them) Maybe the new plan really is to lock down the hospital and let God sort em out.

beehiver – at 11:07

Oh, that would be quite lovely, to be ill with H5N1 and be housed in a tent. Are they going to heat the tents in winter, or air condition them in the heat of summer? Barring that, what is the air circulation like inside one of these tents?

Annoyed Max- Not mad yet – at 13:31

I would think people would prefer treatment in a tent in whatever conditions it provided as opposed to nothing at all.

Bird Guano – at 13:50

Actually in 1918 those that were housed in tents and were slightly hypothermic did better than those in the hospital.

Leo7 – at 15:04

Folks, being sick in a tent might be a survival string but it won’t be comfortable. First you don’t have anything remotely resembling a bed mattress. Flying and crawling critters, lack of privacy, no bathroom at the beside, no sink ,no showers, etc. An extreme hardship especially if you hang off the stretcher because one size doesn’t fit all or if you’re a woman.

Annoyed Max- Not mad yet – at 15:28

I think this quote applies nicely…”post traumatic means you survived!”

04 November 2006

senegal1 – at 20:36

Too True — Annoyed Max at 15:28. Perhaps he said this as part of the roundtable discussion and that was a “role” given to him however it was hard to tell - he seemed serious about it. If I was near John Hopkins and was considering it as my local care center I would certainly find out what their real plan is.

09 November 2006

bump – at 09:40
Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.ReportOnDisasterRoundtable18CitizenEngagementInEmergencyPlanningForAFluPandemic
Page last modified on November 09, 2006, at 09:40 AM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Palese Interview

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Palese Interview

06 November 2006

anonymous – at 21:07

http://www.heise.de/tr/artikel/80553
(in German)
Robert-Koch-Price for Palese and Yoshihiro. Palese said:

I consider it very likely that there will be a flu-pandemic in the foreseeable future. [being asked] Yes, it could be worse than 1918 (in theory).

He refuses Taubenberger’s conclusion that the 1918 virus is more avian than human, this were still unclear.

It’s not particularly likely that H5N1 is close to establish in humans.

A H5N1-pandemic by random mutations is as likely as one by reassortment. But at least as likely is that another serotype will cause the next pandemic. He favours H7 and H2.

Even if I don’t think that a H5N1 pandemic is imminent, so politicians should do something, because other serotypes are also a danger.

It’s very likely that the next pandemic will come, even if no one can predict by which serotype and whether it will be worse than 1918 or not.

anon_22 – at 22:49

Well, seems like Palese is changing his tune.

And covering all possibilities…

And still like H7 and H2.

Interesting…

thank you!

Patch – at 23:21

Anonymous…I’m confused.

First, he says, ‘’”I consider it very likely that there will be a flu-pandemic in the foreseeable future. [being asked] Yes, it could be worse than 1918 (in theory).”’

And then he says, “It’s very likely that the next pandemic will come, even if no one can predict by which serotype and whether it will be worse than 1918 or not.”

Which is it? Anon_22. Which tune was he singing? And what tune now?

anon_22 – at 23:25

He used to say he didn’t believe H5N1 could become a pandemic strain, or that the risk of a pandemic in the near term was higher than ‘normal’ times.

Now he is just covering all the different permutations. Which has the effect of them cancelling each other out. Well, sort of.

Ending up with…nothing.

The only thing that I infer is that he is trying to change his tune, not very congruently, and not very successfully.

DemFromCTat 23:37

Well, to be fair, he’s always said that we should prep for the next pandemic, he just didn’t think H5N1 would go pandemic since it hadn’t already. Others (Ian Lipkin, Columbia) also worry about H7 or some other serology (and also agree about prepping).

07 November 2006

anonymous – at 05:11

OK, here is a babelfish-translation:


One year ago virus researchers the flu virus could
reconstruct incalculable flu of Sascha Karberg, which demanded
during the Pandemie of 1918 approximately 50 million human life.
Peter Palese was one this researcher. The native Sudeten German,
that in Austria buildup, researches for 36 years in the USA particularly
at influenza-viren and belongs to the fathers of a technology
named Reverser genetics. Thus the hereditary property of the influenza-
viren can be manipulated purposefully, so that does not only examine
the functions of the virus genes exactly, but also suitable virus
variants for vaccines to be manufactured to be able. For these
work Palese, which researches to the Mount Sinai Medical School
in New York, beside the Japanese Yoshihiro Kawaoka received the
Robert cook price of this year from the University of Tokyo end
of the week. Virologen differentiate influenza-varianten particularly
on the basis two genes, which code for two cladding proteins of
the virus, the Haemaglutinin (H) and the Neuraminidase (N). 16
h and nine n-Varienten are so far identified, reliably give it
however much more. The 1918er-Virus had the variant 1 from both
proteins and H1N1 is therefore called. H2-Viren released the Asia
flu 1957 and H3-Viren the 1968er-Hongkong-Grippe. H5 and H7-Varianten
can be transferred so far only between birds. With H5-influenza
infected humans (so far approximately 250 cases) cannot infect
other humans.

TR: Professor Palese, your colleagues the impression,
it is a kind automatism aroused that from the bird flu virus
H5N1 a human influenza-virus will develop sometime that a Pandemie
releases like 1918.

Peter Palese: I hold it for very probable
that it will give a influenza-pandemie in foreseeable time. If
one investigates in the past centuries, then it gave in each century
three to four influenza-pandemien. I do not believe that it must
be absolutely the H5N1-Virus, which releases the next Pandemie.
And it must be also no as devastating Pandemie, as 1918. 1968
and 1957 passed the outbreaks moderate much.

TR: For one year
you examine the influenza-virus, which released 1918 with 50 million
dead ones probably the most devastating flu Pandemie in the laboratory.
Did you find a cause for its unusual aggressiveness in the hereditary
property of the virus in the meantime?

Palese: We could show in
the laboratory at mice that the 1918er-Virus is actually as infectious
and deadly as no other flu virus before and thereafter. But there
is no special singular signature in the hereditary property, which
would be the exclusive cause of this aggressiveness. All virus
genes carry certain changes, and it is probably the combination
of these mutations, which optimize the virus altogether. That
is as with a Sprinter: Naturally needs the particularly good legs,
but it needs also both arms for the balance and good chest muscles
for breathing. Good times can safe be run, but evenly not the
best also with only one arm. The 1918er-Virus is a winner, because
coincidentally all parts of the body, all genes of the hereditary
property cooperated perfectly. Thus a flu variant came off, as
we could observe it never before. And perhaps it will never give
again a so ideal combination of optimal gene variants.

TR:Aber
is called nevertheless also that itself quite a still more aggressive
virus than from 1918 could developing?

Palese: I would not exclude
that. Thus I do not want to make a panic, but scientifically that
is possible. It gives to be evenly many possibilities, a good
Sprinter.

TR: Its colleague Jeffrey Taubenberger reconstructed
the component succession of the 1918er-Virus from virus remainders,
which he won from exhumierten victims of the Pandemie. On the
basis these hereditary property goods Taubenberger states that
the virus of 1918 bird flu viruses is more similar than human
flu viruses and the 1918er-Virus probably over-jumped without
a new combination in humans directly from the bird on humans.

Palese: The hereditary property goods Taubenbergers are o. k.,
but I do not divide the interpretation of the data. In order
to be able to judge really, whether the 1918er-Virus is more similar
to the bird flu viruses than the human influenza-viren at this
time, it is missing to Taubenberger the vergleichsmoeglichkeiten.
If we compare human DNA, Zebra DNA and any with one another plant
well, then humans appear naturally the zebra very similar. We
would have to examine a whole number of human influenza-staemme,
which circulated before 1918. As long as we cannot do that, it
is impossible to make this statement. The problem with Taubenbergers
argumentation is that it suggests thereby, also the H5N1-Vogelgrippevirus
could still in the bird in such a way change that it can jump
over direct on humans. Since I do not believe that the 1918er-
Virus bird flu viruses is particularly similar, I do not believe
also that it is particularly probable that H5N1 is short before
it, to be established in humans.

TR: Thus there are still equal
two probable possibilities for H5N1, on humans of over-jumping.

.. Palese: Yes. On the one hand the antigen drift in such a way
specified: The virus accumulates mutations, which change it in
such a way sometime only in the bird and then in humans that from
humans to humans will transfer it can. On the other hand an antigen
SHIFT: Humans are infected both by bird flu and a influenza-virus,
so that their hereditary property can again combine itself. These
mixing viruses are then infectious for humans and starting point
of a Pandemie. But there is still another third possibility, which
is at least just as probable: The fact that the next pandemische
influenza-stamm is not called H5N1 but from any other influenza-
stamm develops, perhaps from a H7 or a H2-Variante.

TR: Was the
Pandemie so serious 1918 also, because humans were weakened by
the First World War?

Palese: Humans died 1918 in war-weakened
Europe exactly the same as in Kansas, where humans did not have
a war behind itself and enough to meals. Thus not the food situation,
but the immunity status of the population is the most important
factor for the weight of a Pandemie. Since we inoculate at present
against descendants of the 1918er-H1N1-Virus, it is very improbable
that the 1918er could cause today still another Pandemie. In the
laboratory we can protect mice with the available vaccines anyhow
from the 1918er-Virus. If a H2-Variante would return, then it
could infect only persons, who are younger than 36. Because H2-
Viren released and circulated 1957schon once a Pandemie until
approximately 1968 in the population. All humans, who are younger
than 36 years, were not confronted no more with H2-Viren, so that
they might not have immune protection opposite H2-Viren. But everyone,
which lived about five years in a population, in the H2 circulated,
might be immune. More seriously H5 or H7-Pandemien would be probable,
since humans could not develop immune protection against these
variants.

TR: May we count at all still on a Pandemie of the 1918er-
Ausmass in view of all the medical possibilities, which there
are today differently than at the end of the First World War?

Palese: It is correct that there are differently than 1918 today
antiviral active substances such as Tamiflu and also antibiotics,
which work against secondary bacterial infections. In addition
we have today the technology, in order to produce vaccines in
relatively short time. These medical tools must be merged however
into an infrastructure, in order to be able to prevent a disaster.
In new Orleans the government could have prevented the consequences
of the hurricane, because the technology to build a dam would
be Trade Union of German Employees nature. If we would inoculate
each year not only a quarter, but the whole population against
influenza, then we would have developed a medical infrastructure,
which prepares us for a Pandemie sufficiently. Because the vaccine
could not protect from the seasonal influenza against a Pandemie
virus. It cannot do that, because it protects only against H1-
influenza-Varianten. But a market would develop, which puts the
vaccine manufacturers into the position to develop the necessary
capacities which would be necessary for a rapid mass inoculation
in the case a Pandemie.

TR: In Germany poultry is not inoculated
against the H5N1-Virus. In China or also in France already. How
do you stand to such inoculation?

Palese: Poultry can be inoculated
and should against the H5N1-influenza-Virus. We built a gene for
the cladding protein Haemagglutinin of the influenza-virus into
the hereditary property of the Newcastle virus, in order to have
a vaccine against both illnesses. Against the Newcastle epidemic
chickens are already for a long time inoculated by routine. This
chimaere vaccine protects the animals now both against Newcastle
and against H5N1-Infektionen.

TR: In China the inoculation against
H5N1 obviously did not contain the epidemic, but to the selection
of resistant germs did not lead.

Palese: The vaccine must be given
in a relatively high dose, because it consists of killed H5N1-
Viren. Probably the necessary dose is often not kept, because
the vaccine is diluted. Thus only a partial Immunisierung develops.
If the chicken is then infected, then the immune system of the
bird developed too little anti-body, and a certain number of viruses
can increase. It is as with antibiotics, if one gives only one
tenth of the dose, then selects one resistant bacteria trunks.
Our living person vaccine is already safer, because one needs
only one thousandth of the quantity compared with killed virus
vaccine. I am confident that the Chinese will copy this technology
soon.

TR: An argument against inoculating is also that infected
itself of inoculated chickens not differentiate do not let.

Palese:
That is correct for the available vaccine, but our chimaerer vaccine
for example has only the Haemagglutinin portion of the influenza-
virus. If one tests the chickens whether they carry another influenza-
protein as for example the Neuraminidase, then one will find only
with infected, but not the inoculated animals.

TR: In the last
year we observed the world-wide spreading of the H5N1-Vogelgrippe.
Can you say, what expects us in this year?

Palese: Human influenza
predominantly spreads in the winter months. The same Saisonalitaet
applies to the bird flu. Thus we will see again a rise of the
cases in the northern hemisphere. On resistant birds we cannot
count yet, because so far only fractions of the game bird populations
were infected.

TR: This year still more humans with the H5N1-Vogelgrippevirus
will infect themselves?

Palese: That is difficult to predict.
The rise of the cases in the last years must no biological cause
anyhow have, but might to a certain part of the better diagnosis
and communication be owed.

TR: Still there is no Pandemie, we
talk thus about a theoretical Pandemie danger. Isn’t the influenza
overrated in view of as urgent infection illnesses as AIDS?

Palese:
We should not schueren H5N1-Panik to only move in order something.
The regular influenza is a sufficiently serious illness, in order
to worry about it. Infect itself annually about five million humans
alone in Germany with an influenza, and roughly 15,000 dies at
the subsequent illnesses. And even if I do not divide the estimate
of a briefly which is approaching H5N1-Pandemie, that is not to
mean that politicians could back-lean. Because it is very probable
that the next Pandemie will come, even if nobody can predict,
when, by which virus variant she is released, and whether her
stronger or moderate than 1918 will be.



anon_22 – at 09:28

anonymous, thank you for posting that. It is very interesting and rich in content. Well worth reading!

I believe his argument goes like this. He doubts that Taubenberger’s current results conclusively points to the 1918 virus as more avian like than human like, that one needs to compare with pre-1918 samples to know that. (Whereas Taubenberger believes that it is possible to conclude that by extrapolation).

So if he doesn’t believe that 1918 was an avian virus that directed infected humans, then the current H5N1 is unlikely to directly become a human pandemic virus either.

That is a very important alternative opinion of the existing data.

Interesting….

anonymous – at 09:39

..but the whole interview sounds a bit to me that he says what he says, because panicing is not good.

Of course, historically we have no example for a H5-pandemic nor for a flu-pandemic worse than 1918, so you needn’t argue with where H5N1 came from. The historic argument stands anyway. That H5N1 had had enough time but didn’t go pandemic is not so clear, because H5N1 is still advancing and it had had no opportunities yet to adapt to humans. Although,…, the amount of recombination and reassortment seems to go down the last years

Patch – at 11:17

Thank you anonymous. I sincerely appreciate this point of view and comments by the experts. I will not likely let my guard down in the near term. But the sky does clear a little, with information like this. At least in regard to High Path H5N1.

I’m always interested in what the experts have to see and would appreciate any comment here.

anonymous – at 12:27

..I just read an alternative opinion with possible billion deaths here:
http://www.curevents.com/vb/showthread.php?t=62466

09 November 2006

bump – at 09:30
Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.PaleseInterview
Page last modified on November 09, 2006, at 09:30 AM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Eastern Washington Preppers

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Eastern Washington Preppers

08 November 2006

The Captain – at 22:13

Curious if anyone lives in Eastern WA or Northern ID? Would be nice to consolidate informational resources for the benefit of the community…

Surfer – at 22:42

The Captain

Surfer here. Go ahead.

09 November 2006

RBA – at 00:32

I’m afraid there aren’t too many of us …..

The Captain – at 01:29

anyone spoken with or researched any preparation done by Spokane County or any Eastern WA or Northern ID County…I just moved here about a year ago…just curious before I take the next step and contact them. King County over in Seattle is on-the-ball.

NWPrepperat 02:04

Hello Captain- It’s nice to meet you.

I know a couple of western Washington folks are on board the wikie. It’s nice to see someone, other than myself, is on this side of the mountains. I did check with Avista regarding emergency planning for power back in August. All I received back was a short email saying that they have “well-developed” emergency operating plans for both natural gas and electric. And that they would use these plans for major events. The Avista rep. also indicated that they are constantly monitoring those plans for changing conditions. Pretty generic… hope they do have comprehensive plans.

I am disappointed with Washington State’s “3days3ways.org” preparedness campaign. I’m afraid 3 days of preps isn’t going to get anyone very far down the road!!!

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.EasternWashingtonPreppers
Page last modified on November 09, 2006, at 02:04 AM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / News Reports for November 8

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: News Reports for November 8

08 November 2006

AnnieBat 01:30

(If you want any of the links to open in a new window, hold down the shift key and then click on the link)

Summary from Indonesia Outbreak as at 7 November 2006

Cases DiscussedJun-06Jul-06Aug-06Sep-06Oct-06Nov-06Total
Died, no tests22437018
Died, tested positive43233015
Other tested positive0131005
Symptoms, tests pending424638334127
Tested negative0626198059
Totals10148164514224

Lookout Posts – here are the links (if no Lookout Post exists, it will not be highlighted)

Please visit these threads for latest information from these regions or to add news

NoRegion NameNoRegion NameNoRegion Name
1USA8East Africa15Arab Peninsula
2Canada, Greenland and the Arctic Circle9Southern Africa and Madagascar16Central Asia
3Central America and Caribbean10Northwest Europe and British Isles17Southern Asia
4South America and Surrounding Islands11West and Southwest Europe18Mainland East Asia and Japan
5Northern Africa12Central and Southeast Europe19Southeast Asia
6West Africa13Eastern Europe and Baltic Region20Australasia Melanesia and Micronesia
7Central Africa14Middle East and Caucasus Region21Pacific Islands and Antarctic

(Please see the thread Volunteers Needed as Lookouts Worldwide if you want to help)

Separate threads for India, Indonesia and Nepal – see links below


Summary of News for 7 November 2006

(From WHO as at 31 Oct - latest update) Total human cases worldwide 256, deaths 152 (2006 – 109 with 74 deaths)

Canada

France

Hong Kong

India

Indonesia

Jordan

Nepal

Russia

Turkey

United Kingdom

United States of America

Vietnam

General

Link to news thread for 7 November (link News Reports for November 7 )
(Usual disclaimer about may not have captured everything. Feel free to add your own where omissions have occurred.)
Please note that I copy the links directly from the thread so if they don’t work you may need to re-visit the Thread.


Thanks to all the newshounds for your efforts. Could I beg your assistance to make creating the News Summary a little easier - please try to create a TinyURL as a link and, if possible, identify the main news feature and country where applicable. Thanks in advance.

AnnieBat 03:25

(USA) Flu epidemic guide advises businesses

BY KAREN SHIDELER The Wichita Eagle (link http://tinyurl.com/y6gfse )

About 9,000 businesses in Sedgwick County are getting advice to help them stay in business, even if 40 percent of their workers are out sick.

The Pandemic Influenza Business Continuity Guide, produced by the Sedgwick County Health Department, encourages businesses to think about and plan for the implications of a flu pandemic.

Health officials worldwide predict that a new influenza virus, to which people have no immunity, will appear sooner or later and cause serious illness and death worldwide. The Kansas Department of Health and Environment says 500,000 Kansans could get sick and 2,500 could die during a pandemic.

The booklet for businesses has lots of the usual advice about preventing the spread of disease, such as reminding people to wash their hands and to cover coughs and sneezes, said Claudia Blackburn, director of the Health Department.

But it also has tips and questions that aren’t as obvious:

“We do want businesses to understand how critical they’ll be to preserving the infrastructure of the community if we have a pandemic influenza,” Blackburn said. Special efforts are being directed at businesses considered essential to the community, such as those that provide trash pickup or those that deliver food and drugs to stores, for example.

AnnieBat 04:48

WHO tells bird flu scientists to stop squabbling Wed Nov 8, 2006 9:09 AM GMT

HONG KONG (Reuters) - The World Health Organization has urged Chinese and foreign scientists to stop squabbling and share information to figure out how to combat a new H5N1 bird flu virus strain that is spreading unchecked in poultry flocks.

“Instead of having a battle in the media … we encourage the scientists from the Chinese government and from Hong Kong and elsewhere to sit round a table and go over all these details,” said Henk Bekedam, WHO’s China representative. “This is an ideal opportunity to get a better idea what is happening in China and assess strategies that have been effective and develop even more targeted strategies if there is a need.”

Chinese officials and scientists rejected a paper published last week by Hong Kong and U.S. scientists who said a new vaccine-resistant “Fujian-like” H5N1 strain had emerged in poultry in China and may spread across Asia and Europe.

In an interview with Chinese media published on Tuesday, two Chinese scientists fired strongly worded rebuttals, saying there was “no scientific basis” for the views and conclusions in the paper. They accused the foreign researchers of “unscientific methods” and said China’s vaccination program was effective. But they gave no details or data, something that Bekedam says is badly wanting.

“Right or wrong, this goes to a level of details that you have to talk to scientists, people who look at gene sequencing and give us clues as to what is happening,” he told Reuters. “If viruses are substantially different, then it is very important for us to make some re-adjustment in the diagnostics, to consider if we might need to come up with a new vaccine.”

H5N1 remains a disease in birds although it has killed over 150 people since late 2003. However, experts fear it could start a pandemic and kill millions if it ever learns to transmit efficiently among people. Research so far into the Fujian strain shows it poses no heightened danger to people.

link http://tinyurl.com/ttgrb

anon_22 – at 05:03

Unconfirmed but broadcast on TV in Hong Kong.

Margaret Chan has won the final round of the WHO Director-General election.

The 2 candidates for the final round was Chan and Frenke from Mexico, who got 15 and 10 votes from the previous round, before the Japanese Omi (9 votes) candidate was eliminated

anon_22 – at 05:17

Confirmed now.

I was surprised that Omi didn’t get to the last round. Wonder what happened.

Commonground – at 05:38

http://tinyurl.com/y8sycu
Commentary
H5N1 RBD Changes Increase Pandemic Concerns in China Recombinomics Commentary November 7, 2006

The recent H5N1 sequences from China include four sequences from geese in Shantou (A/goose/Shantou/2086/2006, A/goose/Shantou/239/2006, A/goose/Shantou/2104/2006, A/goose/Shantou/7775/2006) that have four non-synonomous changes in or near the receptor binding domain (V214M, K222R, V223I, and S227R). Changes at position 227 (S227N) have been associated with increased affinity for human 2,6 receptors and decreased affinity for avian 2,3 receptors. Although affinity chnages for this particular combination of chnages, the presence of this number of changes in or near the receptor binding domain.

These chnages appear to have been generated via recombination because two of the changes are circulating in northern China (K222R in A/goose/Jilin/hb/2203(H5N1)) or Japan (V223I in A/chicken/Yamaguchi/7/2004(H5N1)) and recombination between H5N1 in northern China nad Japan is not uncommon.

As the diversity in receptor binding domain sequences increase, the potential for additional chnages via receombination also increases. Thus, circulation of a large number of receptor binding domain sequences co-circulating in H5N1 creates a serious pandemic concern.

This concern is increased by the withholding of current sequences as well as a questionable surveillance system, since only one Qinghai sequences has been reported in eastern China.

The sequences from avian and human H5N1 isolates from China in 2005 and 2006 should be released immediately. H5N1 sequences from 1997–2004 demonmstrate frequent recombination in northern China, and a robust database is required to determine the likelihood of additional recombination.

Media sources

Phylogenetic Trees

anon_22 – at 05:39

They are saying the Chinese government is thanking the US government for supporting Chan.

Does that mean that that’s who the US voted for? I misjudged completely, then. I thought they would support Mexico over China. Oh well.

btw, I’m just analyzing, not giving my opinion. But that is usually how these posts are decided, based more on international politics and power-brokering than whether the candidate is the best person for the post.

LauraBat 06:00

Aboslutely that’s how people get picked - usually it’s whoever is the “least objectionable.” Thank goodness most businesses are not run that way or we’d still be living in the stone age. My hunch is if the US supported her they figured it was good play to score some political points but for an issue that is relatively “safe” to give some ground on (well, in their eyes anyway, not us Wikians!).

mountainlady – at 06:02

Saw this on Yahoo about Chan:

Bird flu expert selected to head WHO

By ELIANE ENGELER, Associated Press Writer

GENEVA - Bird flu expert Dr. Margaret Chan was selected Wednesday as the world’s top health official, making her the first Chinese national chosen for such a high-ranking U.N. post, delegates said.

The victory for China, which had nominated Chan, indicated Beijing’s interest in playing a bigger role in global affairs.

Found here: http://tinyurl.com/yn54fw

FrenchieGirlat 06:13

It’s confirmed on WHO’s front page

Pixie – at 08:28

Margaret Chan nominated as WHO director-general

Xinhua / www.chinaview.cn 2006–11–08 18:08:47 / http://tinyurl.com/y9dlt7

GENEVA, Nov. 8 (Xinhua) — The World Health Organization (WHO) on Wednesday nominated Dr. Margaret Chan, former health chief of China’s Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, as its next director-general.

    The nomination was the result of rounds of secret voting by the UN agency’s 34-nation Executive Board, during which four other heavyweight competitors were eliminated. 

    Chan, 59, joined the WHO in 2003 and has since been the agency’s top official for pandemic influenza as well as assistant director-general for communicable diseases. 

    Her challengers in the race included Shigero Omi, a Japanese who heads WHO’s operations in the Western Pacific region, Mexico’s Health Minister Julio Frenk, Kazem Behbehani, a senior WHO official from Kuwait and Spanish Health Minister Elena Salgado Mendez. 

    The five finalists were selected from an original list of 11 candidates, who had been recommended by their respective governments to head the UN agency following the sudden death of former WHO Director-General Dr. Lee Jong-wook in May. 

    Chan’s nomination by the Executive Board still needs to be approved by a final voting of the WHO’s full 193 member states. The voting, widely seen as a procedural step, will be held on Thursday, when the WHO’s governing World Health Assembly holds a special session. 
Klatu – at 08:39

Two Hong Kong politicians resign in wake of SARS report

BMJ  2004;(17 July)

“The report strongly criticised Dr Yeoh for not being sufficiently alert when an outbreak of atypical pneumonia occurred in Guangdong province, China, in early 2003, and for poor communication with the public at the start of the outbreak.

He was also censured for failing to adequately supervise the head of the Department of Health, Dr Margaret Chan, and for failing to properly monitor the Hospital Authority.

http://tinyurl.com/y33aal

‘’‘Hong Kong: Legislative Council Select Committee to inquire into the handling of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome outbreak by the Government and the Hospital Authority’‘’

On March 15, 2003, the World Health Organization (WHO) named the disease Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome and issued the emergency travel advisory. Dr Margaret Chan Fung Fu-chun, however, did not see the need to addd SARS to the Firest Schedule to the Quarantine and Prevention of Disease Ordinance (Cap.141) until March 26, 2003. While the Select Committee considers Dr. Chan should be held responsible for not seeing the need to amend the law on or immediately after March 15, 2003, Dr. Yeoh, being the policy scretary responsible for health matters and the immediate supervisor of Dr. Chan, should also be held responsible.” - excerpt

http://tinyurl.com/wtht5

Shape of things to com.

Nimbus – at 08:42

Some interesting comments on Chan from a New Scientist article.

<snip>

Margaret Chan was director of health in Hong Kong from 1994 to 2003. She recommended the slaughter of all poultry in Hong Kong to stop the spread of H5N1 bird flu, and presided over the successful exclusion of the virus in poultry.

But her handling of SARS is more controversial. A government inquiry in Hong Kong accused her of not responding quickly enough to initial reports of a mysterious respiratory disease in southern China. But supporters note that this might make her less likely to soft-pedal any similar information emerging from China about flu. And, they say, as a Chinese citizen she may be more likely to establish good relations with China, the potential epicentre of flu evolution.

Her nomination has comes despite the fact that she is Asian – the UN abides by informal but strong rules dividing the plum jobs among world regions. A Korean was just made Secretary General of the UN, and a Japanese held the WHO post three directors ago.

Furthermore, the last director was Asian. Lee was elected as a compromise candidate when other front-runners did not command a consensus. That could happen again as Lee’s sudden death in May 2006 has precipitated an unusually rapid election.

Besides flu, the new WHO chief will have to deal with AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, the tricky end-stage of polio eradication, and perennial questions ranging from how to promote health care in poor countries, to how to distribute medicines.

<snip>

http://tinyurl.com/y45srf

MaMaat 09:22

NEWS

Cinncinati.com(US, Ohio)- “Michael Greger, avian flu expert and director of public health and animal agriculture at the Humane Society of the United States, will present “Surviving the Next Pandemic: Bird Flu and Other Emerging Infectious Diseases” at 7 p.m. Thursday at Xavier University’s Kelly Auditorium…”

http://tinyurl.com/yeykft

admission is free

MaMaat 09:25

NEWS

M&C- New Delhi, Nov 8 (IANS) “India Wednesday sounded a bird flu alert in all states as the season of migratory birds begins with the onset of winter.

‘We have given clear instruction to all our states to be on vigil. The alert will be in place till February next year,’ said Upma Chawdhry, joint secretary, department of animal husbandry.

‘The three states - Maharashtra, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh - where the disease surfaced in February this year have been instructed to send their monitoring teams to poultry farms,’ Chawdhry said in a conference on ‘Challenges for the Indian Poultry Sector - Post Avian Influenza’…”

…”Four regional laboratories in the country will be ready in a year’s time to deal with the situation, Chowdhry said.

Added H.K. Pradhan, joint director of the Animal Disease Laboratory in Bhopal: ‘India needs to improve its capacity in terms of emergency arrangements to deal with avian influenza. We have only one high quality laboratory for either testing samples or developing vaccines. This must be increased.’..”

http://tinyurl.com/yhtbwm

Klatu – at 10:06

Family’s four members in Tulungagung Suspect AI

(Software translation from Indonesian

On Wednesday, November 08 2006 11:48 WIB

‘’‘TULUNGAGUNG — MIOL: The virus threat H5NI or bird flu (avian influenza-AI) in Tulungagung, East Java, increasingly alarmed. Four citizens at the same time that lived in the Sambirobyong Village, the Sumbergempol Subdistrict, the Tulungagung Regency, was indicated suspect bird flu. On Wednesday early afternoon, the sample of the liquid tubuh

And their throat was at once taken and sent to the Big Hall the Health Laboratory (BBLK) Surabaya.

Four patients suspect AI that still one close and neighbouring family namely the older brother was siblings Siti Mukholifah, 3,5, and Edy Awaluddin, 20, as well as a father and his child of Karni, 38 and Sri Wigati,4.’‘’

http://tinyurl.com/whsr8

Kathy in FL – at 10:26

Not specifically avian influenza, but thought it very interesting under all the circumstances regarding China.

Beijing issues 1 dog per family rule

By SCOTT McDONALD, Associated Press Writer

BEIJING - First it was one child. Now authorities say Beijing families will be allowed only one dog.

The restriction is part of efforts to stamp out rabies, state media said Wednesday. It follows a campaign in August in which thousands of dogs were killed in order to fight the disease.

China’s capital will institute a “one dog” policy for each household in nine areas, the official Xinhua News Agency said.

“Only one pet dog is allowed per household in the zones, and dangerous and large dogs will be banned. Anyone keeping an unlicensed dog will face prosecution,” Xinhua said.

It said rabies killed 318 people nationwide in September.

Rabies is on the rise in China, with 2,651 reported deaths from the disease in 2004, the last year for which data were available.

Only 3 percent of China’s dogs are vaccinated against rabies, which attacks the nervous system and can be fatal.

Remainder of the article at the above link.

Klatu – at 10:57

The following is not new, but the message is consistent.

Killer pandemic ‘going to happen’ World must prepare for the worst, expert warns

 TORONTO SUN

Tue, November 7, 2006

“Bird flu may no longer make huge headlines but a killer pandemic is on the way and the world has to be prepared for the worst, an expert told a health conference yesterday.

Today, the H5N1 virus isn’t readily transmitted to humans, Dr. Michael Osterholm, director at the Centre for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, told the Ontario Hospital Association conference (Canada).

“We have to worry about the next one that can make the jump (to humans),” Osterholm said.

“We don’t know when or how bad the mortality will be, but a pandemic influenza is going to happen and it’s going to be tough,” he said.

1 BILLION COULD DIE

“I can’t say what strain it will be, but I wouldn’t bet my family’s life that it won’t be H5N1,” Osterholm said.

Some experts predict the next pandemic could kill more than one billion people. The current influenza technology represents technology from the 1950s and the results are disappointing, Osterholm said.If the fight is against a new influenza strain, a vaccine wouldn’t be ready for six months and then it would be limited for the duration of the outbreak, he said.

“We don’t know which will emerge as the pandemic strain,” Osterholm said.

An outbreak won’t be anything like a natural disaster such as Hurricane Katrina, where other areas can send relief.

IN THE SAME SOUP

“We will all be in the same soup “… no military troops will come in to help,” he said.

To do nothing to battle the next pandemic is unacceptable, but to promise protection against an outbreak is irresponsible, Osterholm said.

http://tinyurl.com/y3bbg6

Klatu – at 11:17

anon_22 – at 05:39 wrote:

‘They are saying the Chinese government is thanking the US government for supporting Chan. Does that mean that that’s who the US voted for? I misjudged completely, then. I thought they would support Mexico over China. Oh well.’


The American economy is deeply in debt and Chinese banks are happy to keep lending money, right up until the next 2008 Olympic$ in China .

anon_22 – at 11:27

The Americans backed Omi till he was out. Then all 9 votes for Omi went to Chan. That’s a bloc vote. If they’d gone to Frenk, he would have won. So yes, the Chinese definitely needed to thank the Americans.

FrenchieGirlat 12:11

NEWS - OIE - H5N1 Bird Flu virus is changing - FAO and OIE recommend increased surveillance when vaccinating - http://tinyurl.com/ydmftw - Courtesy of Russell Family at CE

8 November 2006, Paris/Rome - According to a report in last week’s Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences on the identification of a new H5N1 virus sublineage in poultry, the spread of this new virus sublineage , called Fujian virus, appears to have become the dominant one of the H5N1 avian influenza circulating in parts of Asia . If the report is confirmed, this does not come as a surprise, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) said today.

While there is a wide variety of Avian influenza strains in animals, and influenza viruses in general have a high rate of change from season to season and from year to year, OIE Director-General Bernard Vallat and FAO’s Chief Veterinary Officer Joseph Domenech warn that with new antigens developing continually in avian influenza viruses, vaccines currently in use for poultry need to be assessed regularly. The two organizations continue to recommend that vaccination control measures need to be accompanied by surveillance and post-vaccination monitoring . They also stressed the need to immediately report to veterinary authorities any unexpected poultry deaths.

FrenchieGirlat 12:30

‘’‘NEWS - FAO - Same report as above just appeared on FAO Web Site - http://tinyurl.com/yxzr6s

Comment - Yeah, I know, it’s a joint release. This PR coming after the last few days of increasingly “concerned” stuff published, I’d say something is really afoot. Ms. Chan is going to have a lot of work from Friday morning… Let’s just hope that since her appointment gives her a diplomat’s status, she will be immune to judicial proceedings in her country for words she may speak in the exercise of her duties. And that she does speak to the world as we expect her to, that she has positively learned from the SARS experience.

Sniffles – at 12:32

Foam OK’d to kill bird flu-infected poultry By LULADEY B. TADESSE, The News Journal

Posted Tuesday, November 7, 2006

“It was an act of desperation to see what we might be able to employ not knowing that we can bring this under control,” said Bud Malone, UD poultry extension agent. (was printed under his picture in the article)

 A foam may be used nationwide to kill commercial poultry infected with bird flu thanks to a brainstorm by an agricultural extension agent at the University of Delaware.

The foam is a faster way of controlling the virus and puts fewer workers at risk than the conventional method of using carbon dioxide. Experts say it will help Delaware’s $844 million poultry industry protect workers trying to contain the virus on infected farms.

On Monday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said the water-based foam, similar to the one used by firefighters, is an acceptable method of killing poultry. <snip>

http://tinyurl.com/ybe5zv

MaMaat 12:38

another article regarding the OIE/FAO report from the UN News Centre…

http://tinyurl.com/to5h5

heddiecalifornia – at 12:40

RE: dogs in China —

  many American Humane groups have been very successful in reducing the number of unhomed dogs in many of the larger metropolitan areas to the point where they can not meet adoption requests from local people.  Therefore, in the case of LA and Seattle, and some east coast cities, they are ‘importing’ homeless animals for adoption from other places/other countries (Mexico, China, some carribean islands, etc.)  in order to meet demand, and to carry on with their current staff and overhead.  
   While I hope I don’t begrudge pets getting caring homes, I worry that these animals may contribute to the ‘germ pools’ available to domestic pets in unforseen ways, since they are not screened as carefully as we might hope to come here, and few vets specialize in exotic diseases for pets should they arrive. 
    A recent group of dogs arrived from Beijing that included a lot of small dogs (Pekingese, terrier mixes, etc.) and also very large dogs (German Shepherds, Maloise, Bernese, etc.) all of which will make premium pets.  One drawback, they only understand Mandarin. 
     I hope that this program will procede with great caution in adopting more animals, to be sure they are indeed healthy.      
heddiecalifornia – at 12:46

Oh, more on above, Chicago Tribune:

   “Residents in the Chinese capital face strict rules on dog ownership - including a prohibition on 40 breeds. As a result, the shelter now holds about twice the number of dogs and cats that it can comfortably accommodate. In stepped the Cape Cod, Mass.-based International Fund for Animal Welfare, which arranged for the dogs to be relocated to New York, where the North Shore Animal League will arrange for them to be adopted by local families”
MaMaat 13:37

NEWS

New Zealand Herald- “ Health authorities around the country will stage an influenza pandemic exercise today to practise containing and stamping out outbreaks of the virus before they spread.

The exercise will be led by the Ministry of Health and involve all 21 district health boards, ESR and the National Health Co-ordination Centre.”

 http://tinyurl.com/yfsrbu
Klatu – at 13:51

Bush, Susilo to discuss investment, avian flu

www.chinaview.cn 2006–11–07 18:31:43

JAKARTA, Nov. 7 (Xinhua) — U.S. President George W. Bush is to hold talks with his Indonesian counterpart Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and a number of Indonesian officials during his visit on Nov. 20 to the biggest Muslim country, focusing on the efforts to boost investment and combat bird flu in Indonesia, the Indonesian presidential spokesman said here Tuesday.

 On avian influenza, the issue will be discussed due to a concern on Indonesia’s top position in terms of the number of victims, 55 out of 72 contracted people have died of bird flu in Indonesia, according to the health ministry. The United States has promised to assist Indonesia with tens of millions of U.S, dollars to help prevent avian influenza from spreading in the vast archipelago country, whose most parts have been infected by the highly pathogenic H5N1. But until now, the promise has not been realized.” - excerpt

http://tinyurl.com/yydv9p

FrenchieGirlat 17:07

‘’‘NEWS - Hong Kong, China - THE STANDARD - Opinion - The politics of survival - Michael DeGolyer - Thursday, November 09, 2006 - http://tinyurl.com/swy5e - Interesting read about the State Department’s email to US citizens in HK…

… However, it was genuinely from the consulate, informing US citizens that the State Department had sent them a cable of the same title. They were passing on tips and directing us to the pandemicflu.gov Web site. I got it as one of 60,000 Americans in Hong Kong on the consulate’s e-mail list. The message basically implies that if a bird flu pandemic hits, you’re on your own. …

FrenchieGirlat 17:11

NEWS - General - From Livescience dot com - Human Deaths from Animal Diseases on the Rise - http://tinyurl.com/y52use

An estimated 50 million people caught diseases from animals such as dogs, cattle, chickens and mosquitoes between 2000 and 2005, according to a new study. Some 78,000 of them died. … The finding reveals the global urgency for doctors to stay vigilant when it comes to zoonotic illnesses—those transmitted by non-human animals. … By reviewing past studies, virologist Jonathan Heeney of the Biomedical Primate Research Center in The Netherlands found the diseases responsible for the majority of zoonotic illnesses seem to be increasing.

Jane – at 17:12

Japan-2005 Has there been any more on this?

Nov. 13, 2005: Japan’s health ministry says it plans to reissue a warning of dangerous behavioral side effects linked to the anti-influenza drug Tamiflu. This comes amid reports that several children in Japan died after taking the medication. <snip> They suspect serious side effects, including 64 cases of psychological disorders, including suicides, in young people.

Tamiflu danger]

Tom DVM has posted about side effects, especially in long-term use, if I remember correctly.

diana – at 17:15

Here in N.J. A lot of New Orleans dogs were adopted and we have more heart worm problems. I wonder what health issues come with Chinese dogs, if any. Will have to check with my local Animal Shelters. Thank you Heddie. This is worrying that the Chinese are doing this at all.

FrenchieGirlat 17:17

NEWS - United Nations World Tourism Organization - UN agency unveils web portal to help tourism industry respond to disasters - http://tinyurl.com/y4owpq

Expanding its effort to help international tourism respond to natural or man-made disasters, a United Nations agency has unveiled a new Internet portal in collaboration with Microsoft that will eventually provide round-the-clock tracking of emergencies such as bird flu or conflict from the travel perspective.


Now wouldn’t that be useful too for tracking BF for health purposes, or, forgive the paranoia, for border closings… Betcha that some governments would give their gold reserves for such software! Do you think the info would be passed on with “extreme urgency” to the WHO, to fill their knowledge gaps in spreading pandemic patterns?

FrenchieGirlat 17:22

NEWS - TURKEY - Turkey Allocates $55 Million to Bird Flu Prevention - http://tinyurl.com/yybrnh

Turkey launched a new $55 million initiative to combat the bird flu over the next four years.

Over $34 million in funding for the Bird Flu Preparation and Prevention Project came from the World Bank through a long-term loan, with the European Union donating $12.7 million and an additional $1 million from the United States.

The Turkish government and the private sector will contribute to the project with $7 million. An advertising campaign is planned under the project as well as intensive studies over the 2006–2010 period.

LauraBat 17:29

From Klatu earlier: The following is not new, but the message is consistent. Osterholm says “ 1 BILLION COULD DIE” Nope, not news to us, but seeing that number does give make you pause and take a big gulp. Problem is, no one is listening. Eventhough he may be right (let’s pray he’s way off base!), that figure is very difficult to swallow and it’s easy for people to dismiss it as extreme paranoia. You’d think the press would pick up on that number, but I guess the impending Spears/Federline divorce is more important.

FrenchieGirlat 17:31

NEWS - India - Indian poultry exports to pick up by Dec - http://tinyurl.com/ycvqgq

NEW DELHI (Reuters) - Demand for Indian poultry exports should pick up by December as the country has told trading partners it was free of bird flu, a senior government official said on Wednesday.

She said the government would study the demands of the domestic poultry industry for a cap on maize exports and lower import duties on the feedstock to ensure easy availability.

Demand for feedstocks has been steadily rising after the outbreak of bird flu, which mainly affected the western state of Maharashtra, was contained.


I’ve posted this because this shows what is the impact of a BF outbreak on world economy - here maize/duties/feedstocks. How can TPTB just say they’ll deal with such realities when they start seeing BF (whether avian or human) hitting their country? Just imagine this shuffle in economics with this one instance, multiplied by the 190 or so countries in the world, each one having different requirements in agriculture… And now, I wonder why it is some countries just do not want to investigate if BF has arrived on their shores on duck wings… or do I? Off to bed now… ‘Night y’all.

DennisCat 17:43

LauraB – at 17:29 1 billion

1 billion out of 6 billion is 16.6..% that would equate to 50 million in the USA.

Klatu – at 17:45

LauraB – at 17:29 wrote:

‘From Klatu earlier: The following is not new, but the message is consistent. Osterholm says “ 1 BILLION COULD DIE” Nope, not news to us….. Problem is, no one is listening.


You can only help those that want to listen.

Jane – at 19:18

Why a flu virus kills some and not others-(Research on mice)

<snip>”Both studies show clear and dramatic differences in the pulmonary inflammatory response of the Type B strain of mice, as compared with Type C strain, after infection with the same dose of influenza virus,” Trammell said. “These distinctive responses to the identical virus challenge suggest that the genetic control of the inflammatory response differs between these two strains.” <snip>

<snip>”Our long-term goal is to identify genomic regions, genes, and alleles that control variation in inflammation during infection with influenza virus” <snip>

http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/medicalnews.php?newsid=55974

http://tinyurl.com/y5o4qk

Jane – at 19:31

Minnesota (where CIDRAP is)

State epidemiologist Harry Hull is resigning after 6 years in the position.

<snip>Hull also said the state is on the right track in planning for pandemic flu, but there’s always more to do.

“If we are in a true pandemic, we’re going to run out of supplies of most everything in that worst-case scenario,” he said. “We won’t have enough hospital beds, we won’t have enough ventilators, we won’t have enough IV fluids, we won’t have enough medical people to take care of everyone.” <snip>

http://www.kare11.com/news/news_article.aspx?storyid=138571 http://www.tinyurl.com/y2ufu2

Oremus – at 20:22

For those searching the news for this thread and other threads, this site may help:

Today’s Front Pages

You can switch between map & list mode. If you click on a location or link, an enlarged picture of the front page will open in a new window, along with a link to that newspapers website.

AnnieBat 21:49

PNG not prepared for bird flu

PAPUA New Guinea is not prepared for an avian or bird flu outbreak. And there is not enough public awareness and response preparedness for the threat of the bird flu and a pandemic influenza at all levels of Government, Health and Bougainville Affairs Sir Peter Barter said yesterday.

He said he was concerned about this and despite the efforts of a small number of committed senior human health and animal quarantine officers, and key UN organisations, the country was not doing enough to prepare itself to handle mass casualty, whether it be poultry or human.

<snip>

Sir Peter urged all sectors and the community at large to be made aware that response preparedness so far undertaken by the Health Department and the National Quarantine Inspection Authority (NQIA) were limited and not able to launch “the massive campaign required to show what people should know about this disease and how to prevent it’’.

He said “ a limited effort’’ had been made to step up surveillance along the PNG/Indonesian border and at the international quarantine ports and “some training’’ had been undertaken with public human health and agriculture extension officers from provinces.

“Not much has been done in preparations for mass casualty, whether it is animal or human disease outbreak. The measures will include restrictions of movements of people and animals and mass destruction of poultry,’’ he said.

More at http://tinyurl.com/y45u44

Klatu – at 22:13

Oremus – at 20:22 wrote:

For those searching the news for this thread and other threads, this site may help:

Today’s Front Pages


Thanks for the tip Oremus, look what I found, plenty of food for thought….

Thu, 09 Nov 2006

(excerpts)

Malaysia braces for flu pandemic

Sun2Surf Malaysia

“Besides stockpiling on Tamiflu, the strategy includes early detection and eradication with veterinary teams on high alert

A BIRD sneezes and the whole world jumps. The avian influenza or bird flu is putting countries on edge as they struggle to stop the deadly H5N1 virus from triggering a human pandemic that could kill millions.

Appropriate to sound early warning, say virologist

Asia Pacific Society for Medical Virology president Prof Emeritus Datuk Dr Lam Sai Kit provides some food for thought on a possible bird flu pandemic.

theSun: How do we know a pandemic is looming? What are the signs? How worried should we be?

A pandemic or global epidemic, by definition, implies a severe disease which appears on multiple fronts, affecting many countries, with high morbidity, i.e. infecting a large population and high mortality or increased number of deaths. Since influenza historically has been known to cause pandemics (three in the last century) and is a virus known to undergo frequent antigenic changes, it is anticipated that the present avian influenza strains, especially H5N1, are likely to be the candidate for the next pandemic strain. It has been over 30 years since the last pandemic and we are due for another one!

The latest data on avian flu affecting humans in several countries in the region with high mortality is therefore a cause for concern.

It is appropriate to sound the early warning of an impending pandemic since influenza viruses, being RNA viruses, are known to mutate and undergo genetic reassortment to give rise to new strains. One of these genetic changes could lead to a strain that will spread easily among humans. It will be too late to take action once the pandemic starts.

As to being worried or not, it depends on the day-to-day situation through global monitoring. If the situation remains as it is today over the next three to four months (the northern winter months), with very few human cases and deaths, then we can remain hopeful that the pandemic will not take place. Let us remain hopeful but vigilant. However, should a pandemic happen, it will spread much faster than in 1918 during the first flu pandemic because of the speed of travel. We are looking at days instead of months.

How do we know that it is the H5N1 virus which will be the cause of the pandemic?

Any of the avian influenza strains (H5, H7, H9) which have shown evidence of being capable of infecting humans can pose as a candidate for pandemic flu although the evidence to date points to H5 being the most likely candidate. The high mortality rate due to H5 (over 50% of infected cases die) makes this a much feared candidate compared to other avian strains.

There is no certainty that it will be H5 and this makes it a dilemma for vaccine manufacturers and early preparation and production for a pandemic vaccine.

Indonesia says culling would be an economic disaster and so it has stuck to disinfecting potential areas. Would that be adequate? Can disinfectants kill viruses?

The main reason why Indonesia is not following strictly international guidelines of culling is because of economics as they cannot afford compensation of culled birds. Disinfection is part and parcel of the fight against this disease whether culling is done or not.

What is so great about Tamiflu? What about the side effects? If every country stockpiles now and the pandemic does not occur, would it be a waste?

Tamiflu is the front line drug in the fight against H5N1 and is very much part of the national plan of preparedness in the face of the pandemic threat. Tamiflu (and the chemically related zanamivir known as Relenza) belong to a class of drugs known as neuraminidase inhibitors. They do not eliminate the virus, but they reduce its release from infected cells by blocking a key viral enzyme. If taken within 48 hours of the onset of symptoms - the earlier the better - they reduce the duration of symptoms and and also limit the severity such as pneumonia. Side effects to Tamiflu are generally mild and the drugs have a long shelf-life for at least 10 years without losing their activity.

Even if you manage to get a supply of this scarce and expensive drug, do you know when to take it? It is not a vaccine which gives protection for several months. How long can you afford to take this expensive drug?

What can people do to minimise the effects of a pandemic or avoid being infected by the flu virus?

We have heard the WHO recommending various preparedness plans. These plans, which include stockpiling of tamiflu and building up infrastructure and surge capacity eg increasing hospital beds, equipment, etc, are varied based on national resources but serve as useful guidelines.

However, individuals must also have what I call individual preparednes plans. Do we, as individuals, know what to do when a pandemic is declared? Don’t leave it only to the government to fight the pandemic. Every individual should help to reduce the chance of getting infected by this wily virus and thus contribute to reducing morbidity and mortality. We must start thinking about individual preparedness, just in case. Many lessons were learnt during the SARS outbreak and these lessons must be put to use to prevent ourselves from getting infected with pandemic flu.

For example, during a worse case scenario of a pandemic, there will be panic and social upheavel and advice will be given not to go to crowded places. We should therefore, as part of our individual preapredness plan, stock up on essentials to reduce trips to markets as soon as a pandemic is declared. We should have a list ready and the list should include a supply of face masks, for example.

Any other advice?

Stay optimistic! “

http://tinyurl.com/yjvawj

AnnieBat 22:27

Nigeria govt warns against bird flu vaccinating

afrol News, 8 November - In a somewhat surprising move, the Nigerian government asked poultry farmers and veterinary doctors to desist from vaccinating poultry against the avian influenza better known as “bird flu”. Nigeria’s poultry industry has over 140 million domestic birds and the sector contributes 9 percent to the country’s Gross Domestic Product.

<snip> The committee warned that vaccination of poultry was against the policy of Nigeria’s federal government. Believing that such acts were capable of jeopardising the health of poultries and consumers of poultry products, the Nigerian government asked for the vaccination of poultry to stop.

The possibility of a large-scale and nation-wide vaccination of poultry was discussed in Nigeria already in February, only weeks after the disease broke out. Estimated at a cost of US$ 15 million only in vaccines, the idea was rejected. This also was in line with recommendations from the UN’s agriculture agency FAO, which noted that tests could not differentiate between vaccinated poultry and infected poultry, causing new risks if the vaccination scheme stopped short at reaching a 100 percent coverage.

The Nigerian government this week thus repeated its established advices to national poultry farmers on the disease. Nigerian Information Minister Frank Nweke issued a statement advising poultry farmers to patronise only qualified and registered veterinary doctors in their respective states or communities.

“It is important for the public to note that avian influenza is a notifiable disease and the Animal Diseases Control Decree of 1988 makes it mandatory that its discovery or suspicion in poultry/birds is reported immediately to government veterinary officials for appropriate action,” added the statement signed by Minister Nweke.

<snip> The disease has already taken its toll on China, Vietnam, Nigeria and Cameroon. The UN observed that Africa grapples with major challenges to curb the disease mainly because of its incessant political and economic instability and lack of funding.

The national professional officer of the World Health Organisation (WHO) in Nigeria, Chijoke Osakwe, said Nigeria has culled at least 700,000 birds since the outbreak of bird flu in February this year. This had cost over US$ 4 million.

The West African bird flu outbreak, which started in Nigeria due to illegal imports of poultry, earlier this year spread to around half of Nigeria’s states, and further into Niger and Burkina Faso. The feared virus did not jump over from poultry to wild birds, and so far no humans have died from bird flu in sub-Saharan Africa. The only African country to record deaths from the disease is Egypt.

More at http://www.afrol.com/articles/22461

Jane – at 22:40

APHA conference resolution

 The American Public Health Association (APHA) today voted to adopt new policy that supports comprehensive national planning for an influenza pandemic and recommends key changes to the current response strategy, including ensuring care for vulnerable populations.

The resolution asserts that the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), not the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), should be the lead federal agency on issues related to domestic preparedness for and response to pandemic influenza, and HHS should have wide authority to plan for a national response to annual flu epidemics.

<snip>The policy also urges federal agencies to rework the National Response Plan, a strategy developed by DHS to enhance the nation’s ability to manage domestic emergencies<snip>

<snip>-- Increasing funding for states, localities, hospitals and public health labs to expand their capacity to respond to pandemic flu;

<snip>-- Increasing investment in the public health work force, so there are enough employees necessary to serve on the frontlines in preparing for and responding to a pandemic and annual seasonal epidemics;

<snip>-- Creating guidelines for the use of non-pharmaceutical interventions, including handwashing, “snow days,” isolation and quarantine;

http://releases.usnewswire.com/GetRelease.asp?id=75860

http://www.tinyurl.com/up4rq

Klatu – at 22:46

Wednesday 08 November 2006 | 10:37 PM

GOVERNMENT DENIES PRESENCE OF AVIAN INFLUENZA

“Akwa Ibom government has confirmed that the State has not recorded any incidence of the avian influenza even as the bird disease has affected 14 states in the country. At a recent workshop organized by the Nigeria Veterinary Medical Association in Uyo, the Akwa Ibom deputy governor, Sir Michael Udofia, represented by the commissioner of agriculture and natural resources, Dr Trenchard Ibia, therefore advised farmers to be watchful and take all precautionary measures to maintain the non-availability status in the State. Sir Udofia who is the chairman, Steering Committee on the Control of Avian Influenza in Akwa Ibom, said all preventive measures known by farmers should be applied in the approaching vulnerable dry season regarded as the peak period for the bird disease. “ excerpt

http://tinyurl.com/y39vpb

Klatu – at 23:29

‘You Don’t Know What You Don’t Know’

Oct. 23, 2005

MSNBC

“A veteran of Asia’s first bird flu outbreak now leads the World Health Organization’s global drive to stave off an epidemic.  She’s struggling to strike a balance between informed concern and panic.

What’s your plan?

Our strategy, they need to control the poultry problem, at the source, right up on the farm, so we can reduce the risk of exposure to the human population.  Already, tremendous sacrifices are being made by many farmers who raise ten or 20 chickens as a protein and an income source and are losing them all [particularly in Asia].

We need to educate farmers. Poultry droppings are very rich in virus so they shouldn’t be handled without cleaning their hands. There are places where people drink the blood of chickens; this and other high-risk behaviors need to be addressed. The small farmers especially, we need to educate them.”

http://tinyurl.com/y5ufzb

Education is difficult on an empty stomach.

AnnieBat 23:40

Migrating birds free from flu, ministry says

Theresia Sufa, The Jakarta Post, Bogor (link http://tinyurl.com/y373oa)

None of a sample of migratory birds flying to Indonesia have tested positive for the deadly bird flu virus, a Forestry Ministry official says. Speaking at the Asia-Pacific Migratory Waterbird Conservation Committee meeting here Monday, Arman Mallolongan said the ministry had tested 695 migratory birds this year. All were found to be free from the virus, he said.

The meeting was attended by 40 participants from Australia, the United States, India, Japan, China and Russia. It discussed possible ways to protect migrating birds and monitor their health. Scientists have theorized that wild birds may help spread the H5N1 strain of avian flu.

Indonesia is a destination for between 15,000 and 20,000 migrating birds from around 60 different species every year, government data says. The birds, are regularly seen stopping at Tanjung Benoa in Bali; Gresik in East Java; Semenanjung Sembilan in South Sumatra; Pantai Cemara in Jambi; Belawan in Medan and Wonorejo in Central Java.

Arman said the government had set up a national committee to monitor the spread of bird flu in wild and migratory birds.

 <snip> Pete Wood of Birdlife Indonesia said large flocks of  birds from Siberia, Mongolia, China, Korea and Japan came to Indonesia  and other warmer countries in the south to escape the northern winter. 

Wood said many migratory birds usually stopped here before flying on to Australia and New Zealand. Most flew back using the same route, he said.

Klatu – at 23:43

Dr Chan Confident About Running for Director-General Job

Aug/06

china.org.cn

(photo) Chinese Vice Premier Wu Yi ® shakes hands with Margaret Chan, during their meeting in Beidaihe, a summer seaside resort in north China’s Hebei Province on July 29, 2006.   Dr Chan said she felt a bit nervous having secured the backing of the central government in her bid to become Director-General. However, at the same time their support and assistance from the government of HKSAR had heightened her confidence.   She stressed she’d do her utmost to live up to everyone’s expectations. She would become “an international civil servant” if elected to the post. “I’ve to demonstrate that I’ll be fair, open and transparent and deal with issues on their merits,” said Dr Chan. “ excerpts

http://tinyurl.com/y9rvby

Map Heibi Province

09 November 2006

AnnieBat 00:19

I am just starting the News Summary then I will start a new thread so hang fire for about 30 minutes with your posting please

Bird Guano – at 01:00

Political heavyweights talk bird flu http://tinyurl.com/yx548u // 08 Nov 2006

Bird flu will be high on the agenda when US President George W Bush talks with his Indonesian counterpart Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono later this month.

Indonesian Presidential spokesperson Dino Pati Djalal said that President Bush will arrive in Bogor, a town on the outskirts of Jakarta, after his visit to Hanoi and Singapore.

Avian influenza is reportedly an issue of concern for the Indonesian President, who is worried about the number of victims of the disease in Indonesia.

Fifty-five out of 72 contracted people have died of bird flu in Indonesia, according to the cumulative tally provided by the World Health Organisation .

The United States promised to assist Indonesia with tens of millions of dollars to help prevent avian influenza from spreading in the vast archipelago country, where bird flu has been discovered in 30 of 33 provinces. But Indonesia says the pledge has not yet been realised.

International experts are concerned that the disease continues to be found in Indonesia. One such commentator is United Nations bird flu expert Dr David Nabarro, who recently said AI could be a problem for the next decade .

In the wake of recent deaths from the disease, Indonesia has defended its bird-flu fighting efforts .

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.NewsReportsForNovember8
Page last modified on November 09, 2006, at 01:00 AM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / APHA Annual Meeting Boston

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: APHA Annual Meeting Boston

13 October 2006

Posie – at 01:08

There’re many pandemic emergency preparedness meetings/presentations being offered during this event which takes place from Nov 4th-8th in the new Boston Convention & Exhibit Ctr.

http://apha.org/meetings/index.htm

Emergency preparedness, pandemic, quarantine and human rights issues, voluntary compliance, hospital capacities, epidemiological surveillance methods, planning at federal, state, and local levels etc.

I had to find the schedule of programs by registering w/a personal planner via the link below. Doing so allowed me to better organize the meetings I’m interested in attending. Each meeting contains several short topic meetings within it.

http://apha.confex.com/apha/134am/scheduler/top.cgi?page=register

Cheers.

jplanner – at 02:37

thanks Posie. I was able to see what was offered without registering…browsed thru what was offered by topic-you can also go by session/day. For catagorise they use the word (“section”. I was surprised, layperson that I am, that there was no one “Section” for Pandemic Flu. Given the recent report that experts on average think there is a 15% chance of pandemic hitting within three years, I would think it important that it be more prominant. I found alot of the presentations under

Here is a good one for example: “3310.0: Monday, November 6, 2006: 2:30 PM-4:00 PM Planning For Pandemic Influenza: Local, State, Tribal and Federal Perspectives. It actually is one of the only ones I saw that has the term Pandemic in the title of the talk. The other ones use terms like planning for epidemics, public health disasters, emergencies etc…then when you click on it and read more about what is being presented, often a least ONE of the speakers will be speaking about Pandemic flu.

IT’s just strikes me as strange that the Pandemic Flu situation isn’t more Prominant. I know there are many competing public health issues…but seems to me this is one of the BIG ONES of our time.

I am sure it will be a great meeting to attend but it seems to me one would have to be focussed on FINDING those sessions to be exposed to their importance. I hope it is my relative lack of computer skills or experience with such things that leads me to that conclussion. American Public Heath Association meeting…doesn’t seem like pandemic flu possiblity is huge given at least the interface that I was able to access myself. I hope it is my lack of skill and it doesn’t seem that way to others.

jplanner – at 02:43

So sorry about typo’s. I found most of the Pandemic talks under “Community Health Planning and Policy Development” section. Is anyone else surprised at the lack of “front and center” place of Pandemic Flu at this meeting…isnt the American Public Health Association one of the big ones in Public Health in the US? DOes anyone have the reaction I do or any idea why this is?

crfullmoon – at 09:53

I don’t know, keep it low on the public/media radar?

I think I’ve passed up on a chance to get in the building, partly because I don’t see it getting anything out to the public about prepping now,

and partly, because the ammount of people who travel extensively all being in one place makes my irony/fear factor go off.

;-)

Jane – at 10:34

I put this in the News thread the other day:

 APHA Launches Get Ready Campaign to Help Americans Prepare  
 Themselves for Flu Pandemic

 APHA has officially launched its Get Ready campaign to help the  
 public prepare for a potential influenza pandemic and outbreaks of  
 other emerging infectious diseases. Unlike existing efforts, APHA’s  
 campaign will speak directly to individuals, families and  
 communities and help fill gaps by telling people exactly what they  
 need in order to prepare themselves. Currently, the campaign  
 includes a blog, fact sheets and podcasts available through the Get  
 Ready Web site at  http://www.getreadyforflu.org  . Future plans for the  
 campaign include grassroots activities, toolkits, community  
 partnerships, preparedness surveys and a calculator to help people  
 determine what supplies they will need to prepare for pandemic flu  
 or other emerging infectious diseases.  

Just hope it doesn’t get buried in all their other work. I wonder how they will make it public. If HCWs in all city and state public health department are members, that would help, but I don’t know if that is the case.

LauraBat 10:53

This is a good site to direct people to. I thought it was well done, simple, but keeps the message straight. For any of you directing others to information, especially beginners, this is a good palce to start.

Mods - do we have this link posted somewhere?

14 October 2006

Posie – at 00:46

jplanner, i don’t know, but am seeing this pandemic awareness involvement pick-up considerably both within and outside the university.

i’m thinking the reason it’s not receiving more prominence at an event like this is due to 1.) it being such a new subject, these things unfortunately seem to require some time to get off the ground, and 2.) funding issues. much of the emergency prep stuff you’re seeing has to be couched in emergency prep or bioterrorism due to funding sources. a program is more likely to receive funding if they’re able to couch it in terms of general preparedness (and/or bioterrorism) due to the apparent uncertainty surrounding potential pandemic. therefore, tho pandemic may underlie many of the programs listed on the APHA schedule of events, you’re more likely to see it listed in terms of more general E-Prep measures/information.

personally, i’m under the impression everyone involved w/E-Prep at whatever levels, realizes its most often lately pandemic prep they’re discussing.

for instance, i had the opportunity to attend a debris management meeting at a local PH office (i’m an intern doing independent study on an E-Prep program). of course they were discussing debris w/respect to storms and such, however…another aspect of this involves interment of bodies in mass graves in a way that they can be exhumed, identified, and reburied during a large-scale disaster. no one mentioned panflu, but there were statements made such as, “when this happens…IF it happens…”, and we all know without saying they’re discussing panflu. there are many issues regarding funding i don’t completely understand at this point, but impress very much upon the terms/language under which much planning’s taking place.

Jane, thank you for directing us to this web site.

cheers, all.

01 November 2006

Posie – at 12:34

just a reminder, the APHA Conference begins November 4th:

APHA Annual Meeting Nov 4–8, 2006 in Boston: http://www.apha.org/meetings/index.htm

some relevant sessions:

Status Day Start Time End Time Show Locations Session # Paper # Title Notes

   Monday  8:30 AM  10:00 AM     3020    KATRINA, RESPONDING TO A PUBLIC HEALTH EMERGENCY: THE EVENT AND THE AFTERMATH   Note

   Monday  10:30 AM  12:00 PM     3106    EMERGENCY RESPONSE TOOLS FOR COMMUNITY PLANNERS   Note 

   Monday  12:30 PM  1:30 PM     3158    ENSURING FOOD SAFETY, EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS AND DISEASE PREVENTION   Note 

   Monday  2:30 PM  4:00 PM     3310    PLANNING FOR PANDEMIC INFLUENZA: LOCAL, STATE, TRIBAL AND FEDERAL PERSPECTIVES   Note 

   Monday  4:30 PM  6:00 PM     3395    ASSESSING AND TRAINING THE WORKFORCE FOR EPIDEMICS, DISASTERS AND BIOTERRORISM   Note 

   Tuesday  8:30 AM  10:00 AM     4039    EMERGENCY AND DISATER PREPAREDNESS I   Note 

   Tuesday  12:30 PM  1:30 PM     4087    DEVELOPING PUBLIC HEALTH INFRASTRUCTURE TO ADDRESS ACTS OF BIOTERRORISM AND/OR PANDEMICS   Note 

   Tuesday  12:30 PM  2:00 PM     4118    DISASTER PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE: A HEALTH PLANNING APPROACH   Note 

   Tuesday  12:30 PM  2:00 PM     4129    QUARANTINE, ISOLATION AND OTHER HUMAN RIGHTS ISSUES IN DISEASE CONTROL AND PREVENTION   Note 

   Tuesday  2:30 PM  4:00 PM     4227    PUBLIC HEALTH EMERGENCIES AND HUMAN RIGHTS   Note 

   Tuesday  4:30 PM  6:00 PM     4300    EVALUATING PREPAREDNESS FOR EMERGENCY RESPONSES AND POST KATRINA LESSONS   Note 

   Wednesday  8:30 AM  10:00 AM     5055    EMERGENCY AND DISASTER PREPAREDNESS II   Note

   Wednesday  2:30 PM  4:00 PM     5171    EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS AT THE LOCAL OR STATE LEVEL   Note 

3310.0: Monday, November 6, 2006: 2:30 PM-4:00 PM Oral

Planning For Pandemic Influenza: Local, State, Tribal and Federal Perspectives

Continued outbreaks of avian influenza in an ever-growing number of countries raise the concern that an H5N1 influenza virus will evolve into a virus spreading efficiently from person to person and resulting in an influenza pandemic. Planning for such a pandemic poses many challenges at the federal, state, local and tribal levels, some of the key ones being the number of unknowns (epidemiology, availability of countermeasures, effectiveness of social distancing measures), the need to plan for response with local resources given the widespread nature of the event, the impact on the healthcare system, and possibly on other critical infrastructure, and the coordination of the large number of entities involved in planning and in response. Much of the response to pandemic influenza will unfold at the local level, so it is important that all communities engage in planning. The requirement for states to submit plans as part of CDC’s preparedness cooperative agreement in June 2005, the recent allocation of funds through that cooperative agreement, and the heightened level of attention to the potential for an influenza pandemic at the highest levels of government have resulted in substantial focus on planning for pandemic influenza at the state and local level. This session proposes to provide a federal, state, local and tribal perspective on selected current issues and activities. Learning Objectives: At the end of the session the participant will be able to: 1) Describe an approach to community engagement around prioritization of scarce resources, 2) Describe the role of local health departments in contrast to state health departments in pandemic response, 3) Describe the unique aspect of tribal planning 4) Describe current availability of vaccine and antiviral drugs Moderator(s): James A. Gaudino, MD, MS, MPH 2:30 PM Introductory Remarks

2:35 PM Planning for Pandemic Influenza: Federal Perspective Pascale Wortley, MD, MPH 2:50 PM Planning for Pandemic Influenza: State Perspective Susan M. Allan, MD, JD, MPH 3:10 PM Planning for Pandemic Influenza: Local Perspective Paul Etkind, DrPH, MPH 3:30 PM Planning for Pandemic Influenza: A Tribal Perspective Jim Roberts 3:50 PM Discussion

See individual abstracts for presenting author’s disclosure statement and author’s information. Organized by: Epidemiology Endorsed by: Academic Public Health Caucus; Community Health Planning and Policy Development; Maternal and Child Health CE Credits: CME, Health Education (CHES), Nursing

http://www.apha.org/meetings/index.htm

bump – at 14:17
Jane – at 14:40

Does anyone not a member want to be a Fluwiki correspondent and get a media pass for this conference? I don’t know how a blog reporter would get credentials…show his/her voluminous FW notes?

Posie – at 21:31

Sounds great!

I plan to attend on Monday and will be at those sessions mentioned above.

Can’t wait!

bump – at 22:15
Goju – at 22:20

Moderator(s): James A. Gaudino, MD, MS, MPH 2:30 PM Introductory Remarks 2:35 PM Planning for Pandemic Influenza: Federal Perspective Pascale Wortley, MD, MPH 2:50 PM Planning for Pandemic Influenza: State Perspective Susan M. Allan, MD, JD, MPH 3:10 PM Planning for Pandemic Influenza: Local Perspective Paul Etkind, DrPH, MPH 3:30

All of them were sent emails about this site.

Goju – at 22:22

Oh and I posted comments on the Go Ready site.

Everyone should. If these guys are reading their own site it would be helpful.

02 November 2006

anon_22 – at 03:02

Posie,

Have a great conference and please remember to tell us what you learnt!

06 November 2006

crfullmoon – at 07:36

Wonder how things are going?

Jane – at 11:37

My daughter said there were stickers and pens with “Prepare for Flu” on them, on the APHA table. (Or maybe it was “Get Ready for Flu” since that’s the title of their blog.) They are looking for corporate sponsors so they can do more, she said.

A story about the APHA conference (Boston Globe): The right to sutures, the right to generators are fundamental human rights, according to the founder of Partners in Health, Dr. Paul Farmer of Harvard University.

apha/ health rights

Grace RN – at 12:04

Look for the results on the roundtable presentation by Elizabeth Petit-Demange PhD. It’s about our efforts to get pandemic planning moving in our township.

Posie Can You Update Us – at 14:59

Posie, Did you attend the conference? Was it good? Bad? Ugly? Do tell! ;)

Birdie Kate – at 15:08

Grace RN, can you lead me in the direction to find the Elizabeth Petit-Demange PhD roundtable.

Thanks Kate

07 November 2006

Grace RN – at 21:04

Sorry it was today

http://apha.confex.com/apha/134am/techprogram/paper_140329.htm

Birdie Kate – at 22:29

I hope they post the presentations on the web. I would love to have gone but……

09 November 2006

jplanner – at 00:59

Wondering how the conference was Posie. SO glad you got to attend and report back to us. Hope you are doing ok?

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / How it Begins

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: How it Begins

06 November 2006

anon – at 21:45

I am a physician (to remain anon in this post). I work in a specialty department in a large hospital organization (that is I am not your family Doc and not generally exposed to secretions). This week I saw a patient for an “injury”. The injury occured in China while he was on “vacation”. Patient roomed with his wife who was coughing up a storm! No one on the staff had questioned he or the wife on what kind of travel…..have you been on farms?…..had contact with poultry?….

I am really getting fed up with TPTB at my institution. We per say have guidelines on respiratory sx for patients but they are not rigidly followed. We have crap PPE for providers and we do not have a culture of questioning patients about travel, current illness etc. We routinely room patients with family members/kids/multiple kids several of whome are sick and exposing everyone else……

Will I serve or SIP….the answer is obvious.

anon – at 21:55

I should have also included the fact that the patient and his wife were Chinese. Thus they were not typical tourists and obviously probably did visit local family etc. and could have potentially many opportunities to be exposed beyond the usual traveller.

Meserole in FL – at 22:04

It’s bad enough that the general public shrugs the whole thing off as some sort of crazy survivalist dogma/cult, but the realization that the major players in the medical field are so ill informed is downright scary.

I will say that my granddaughter’s pediatrician told my husband (when he asked him outright what he thought of the bird flu) that he doesn’t underestimate the potential danger, and that we are not nuts to prep. He has already stockpiled 3 months worth of supplies and his wife and children will SIP at the first hint of trouble. It was quite a relief to hear that some docs are on their toes, but my guess is that if he hadn’t been asked outright, he would not have mentioned it.

My guess is that the confirmation of the first case is what it will take to get the undivided attention of the TPTB in the medical profession. It’s very frustrating.

ColdClimatePrepperat 23:07

People can’t handle the truth.

That’s the fact. And its a hard truth to handle…

We could be facing:

50% attack rate and 50% CFR = 1.5 billion dead

Can’t put it any simpler than that. If TPTB would say this, would people start to prep? You bet! Instead TPTB say 1918 is the worst case scenario. Would that it were only so.

On the fence and leaning – at 23:18

anon: very scary thread. Makes me think of your question to Serve or SIP: Not trying to be an alarmist, and I am sure she just had a cold, but it may be too late for that decision. If not this time, then maybe the next time. If not you then some other doctor is some other city. If you are at ground zero when it happens then you are the ‘trip wire’ for the rest of the country. Let’s face it, people who say they are waiting for word of health care providers getting sick or small clusters growing are assuming (or hoping) that they are reading it on wiki or MSM. It’s entirely different if you are IN one of those clusters. I hope that hospitals get their act together better than what you related above. MANY lives are depending on the ability and professionalism of the HCWs to ask the right questions, wear the PPE and identify early. Trip wires don’t work when the hazard’s already inside the boundary… Good luck and thank you for this post.

Leo7 – at 23:38

Anon who started the thread:

As a Critical Care Nurse I have to say if you don’t inquire about these things who will? Doctors can effectively change practice-please choose to discuss it with the Inf Disease doc in your house. I’ve tried and basically failed. Ditto on isolation and visitors and PPE. What is your plan if any?

Pixie – at 23:43

anon - at 21:45

May I ask what would make you or your fellow healthcare providers begin to assume a possible H5N1 infection based soley on, say, the travel patterns of an individual presenting with flu-like symptoms?

What would it take for you to remove the “have you had any contact with chickens” qualifying question from the “identifying potential H5N1 patients” equation entirely?

The reason I ask this is that many of us here feel that there is a danger the beginning of the pandemic may be missed because everyone will be looking for a link to chickens when, if the virus changes to pandemic form, the chickens will be out of the equation and left in the dust, and human-to-human will be the name of the game. If we are always using the chicken qualifier, how will we be able to detect the human-to-human transmission of cases, which is the real danger?

Thanks in advance for any input.

Olymom – at 23:45

Can you throw a snot wringing fit? (or borrow a surgeon to do so : ) There’s nothing so incandescent as anger inspired by injustice and it sure sounds like injustice is being done to you and your fellow HCW

Leo7 – at 23:47

Olymom: He/She is a surgeon or a orthopedic doc more than likely.

07 November 2006

anonymous – at 00:35

ColdClimatePrepper – at 23:07

“People can’t handle the truth.”

Stop treating people like children and maybe they’ll stop acting like children.

anon for this thread too – at 00:51

It’s system wide. At a recent, pre-hospital emergency medical services conference, info about H5N1 pandemic flu was given to paramedics and EMTs…

“Flu symptoms may be more severe than seasonal flu.”

If someone gets the virus they must take Tamiflu for 7 weeks.

And my favorite… “How do I protect myself? Try to stay at least 3 feet away from anyone who is coughing or sneezing.”

There was no sense of urgency… could have been a talk about toenail fungus.

We’re in it deep.

another anon for now – at 01:03

To Dr. Anon

I know of what you speak. Hosp. admin here is in deep denial as well. However, I would suggest you gather a good sized group of like minded MDs, sit admin down and state your demands.

Leo7 – at 01:25

Anon at 00:51:

And my favorite… “How do I protect myself? Try to stay at least 3 feet away from anyone who is coughing or sneezing.”


Deja vu just happened. Except we had to wait for the administrator to finishing yawning before giving an answer. HCW’s will be down to flipping coins to get to see who has the bad luck of intubating someone. This is widespread and systemic throughout the health care system. The entire point is to keep the HCW in the mindset to put duty over saving your own hide or family. There are a few of us here and there who talk about it when alone, but my entire ICU discussess it and we debate what we will do. We don’t share this with management because it’s pointless. They are choosing this path of less resistance for them and acute anxiety for us. So when the time comes and they expect and want discussion—we will be talked out. Informal poll at my hosp had a 49% rate of single parents or primary custodial parents. They have slowly admitted to their co-workers it could be too big a sacrifice for them. Everything hinges on the CFR and triage coordination IMHO.

Nobody for this post – at 01:54

Somehow this doesn’t frighten me. I doubt I will be able to get into a hospital for treatment anyway. I’m a nobody. I hope the health care workers do protect themselves, we’ll need them on the other side of the pandemic. If you guys all die because Tamiflu doesn’t work or whatever, then we are done for.

anon for this thread too – at 01:56

Then we have the emergency management director for a health system on the west coast who said -

“For example, health workers would have to improvise in a true pandemic. If we had to, we’d think about Home Depot — they carry masks and gloves,” he said. “There’s a lot of things you can do. We’d have to work together like we never have before.”

I don’t think this is what Home Depot’s “You can do it. We can help” means.

Betty – at 02:33

I agree with “Nobody for this post - @ 1:54.” I will be very upset (sad) if I can’t get my kids or myself into a hospital; however, going into a hospital won’t necessarily change the outcome for us. It would just put others at risk. And we do need to keep HCWs for “after.” And we also need them to keep the research scientists, who can possibly find a vaccine, healthy. Like I said, I will be very upset, but it’s a sad fact (I think).

Northstar – at 09:08

If it’s a severe pandemic, I would not expect or even attempt to obtain hospital treatment. The idea of joining rioting hordes, sick child in arms, trying to get help from exhausted, overwhelmed HCWs stops me in my tracks, and as mentioned above, probably would not change the outcome. I can imagine the care my child would get under those conditions would be far inferior to what I could provide at home, even if (or especially if) it is just pallative care.

If my GP asked me what I would expect from her, I would tell her her duty of care to her small children superceeds her duty of care to her patients; phone consults would be great, however. I am stocking up on antibiotics (and dosing info), necessary medicines and OTC medicines the best I can.

Homesteader – at 09:19

Anon at 1:56

Tell the Director not to worry, if his/her Home Depot theory doesn’t work I’m sure “there is a Visine for that!” :)

Carrey in VA – at 09:54

LMFAO at “there’s a Visine for that”

anonymous – at 10:06

I had a chance to bring up the pandemic with a nurse who is working at my local hospital,and I asked if they are planning for it.She said yes they were it was part of their all hazards plan.When asked if they were stockpiling food and PPE she said no they will get it when it comes up.I pray I can be strong if we get flu and not go running to the hospital.I cant imagine taking my 7 year old there and then not being able to stay with her.Having her laid out in a nasty hallway.Probably not able to even get info on her condition.No I am with northstar,If there is a pandemic the hospital is the last place I want my kids unless we are like the first sick people.

Ruth – at 10:21

Hospitals will need to shut down in a moderate to severe pandemic. I’ve said this before. As we type, there is a nursing shortage and a bed shortage. No flu. Just normal stuff. Normal stuff will still be going on when or if we have a pandemic. Hospitals will not be able to stay open.

Argyll – at 10:24

DR. Anon,

I have a relative that is scheduled to travel to Hong Kong this week for 5 days. What specific recommendations should they observe?

Many Thanks,

Argyll.

crfullmoon – at 11:03

“When asked if they were stockpiling food and PPE she said no they will get it when it comes up” Words (polite ones anyway) fail me - how can any one lack the common sense to think that through?

This whole thing is driving. me. crazy.

Anon docs and hcws; get your financial affairs in order and stop biting your tongues; what’s the worst that could happen? They fire you before pandemic breaks out? (Maybe survivors can go back to very old-style; putting physicians on the family payroll and just not paying them when people are sick, post-pandemic…)

Malachi – at 11:12

Yes crfullmoon, It is driving me crazy too.In fact it made me toss my cookies,my post anon @ 10:06

anon – at 11:18

Thanks all of you for your comments, especially those in Healthcare. I have tried “pitching an email fit” at my institution without any luck. I think Administration just plain does’nt get it. Bird Flu is not on their radar as they struggle to count their beans everyday and make their institutional goals set by the ever higher PTB. When it comes down to it I don’t think that most of Admin. feels a sense of fear…it’s like they simply have no sense of biology or respect for the Virus…guess that’s why they’re administrators!

Infectious disease at my facility also is not too excited about bird flu it seems. They probably do know that we have no surge capacity and are basically *&%$ed anyway.

For you travellers I would say protect yourself! Practice good hand washing #1. I recently flew and I did wear a mask. Don’t care how stupid I looked. I had 3 nasty repiratory bugs last flu season and I attribute 2 of them to airline travel. People were coughing on the plane. Studies show the air in airplanes is ok but that it is the people within 3 rows of you that will make you sick through large droplet spread. Put your mask on as you are boarding….not while you are going through security! LOL

Are we there yet – at 11:51

anon for this thread too – at 00:51

Tamiflu for “7 weeks”?

Was that a typo?

crfullmoon – at 11:56

Malachi – at 11:12, can you hear my insides? They’re about loud enough. Either the coffeshop sold some bad coffeecake, or discussing some things with some totally cluless individuals this morning, who should know better by now, is about to make me sick, too. They keep thinking the local health dept will surely suddenly start to do the right thing, that it is only a health dept. responsibility, and, just another interesting issue (not as personally interesting as what’s already on their organization’s agenda, of course) when they don’t get that the “health dept” and the entire political system decided to (Or, they’re just fatally incompetent. Whatever.) let the public proverbially drink the pandemic koolaid.

Let the hospital administrators go down with the ship; maybe you can have in-services now, and teach them how to administer triage; didn’t someone find some rough pandemic influenza triage guidelines already??

I think it is a national security issue to have trained experienced health care providers post-pandemic for the Recovery period, even if our imported medical essentials chain is broken; they can still help, if they are alive and functioning. Not dead or burnt out.

LMWatBullRunat 12:28

As I have stated on other forums, my evaluation is that there will be no effective health care system left after a severe pandemic, and few HCW, either. I expect that we will lose a disproportionate number of HCWs nd support staff during a pandemic, and I am planning for that eventuality. Worse, we may lose the medical training facilities, too.

TXNurseat 12:30

I’m also a critical care nurse and have stated on other threads how I’ve been banging my head against the wall with my hospital for >2 years to absolutely NO avail, we have had no plans, no meetings, no PPE’s stockpiled, almost half of the nurses in ICU are prepping at home, and that’s where we will be!,,,,along with the other half when they realize we are not crazy after all (only they will be without food) I’ve had 2 of my bosses who are not preparing say “I’ll be at your house 1st thing” and I have told them politely “no you won’t”.

He thinks I’m crazy too – at 13:20

None of us (medical professionals) really want to admit our biggest flaw. Preparation has to come from the bottom up. When I say from the bottom up, I do not mean this to sound derogatory at all!!!! When a patient comes into a hospital it is not the MD or nurse that sees them first, it is either a nurses aid, orderly or a clerk. Involvement, information and preparation of our lowest skilled coworkers is our first defense—wheather we want to admit it or not!!!!

THINK ABOUT IT!!!!!

Malachi – at 13:45

When I hear hcw”s talking about how unprepared and oblivious their hospitals are it really shoots up my ppof(personal pissed off factor),as hippie moms are told by health depts that hospitals are prepared,have 3 days of food and water,Sorry but you really have no need for antibiotics since you aren’t sick.MI put out an all hazard emergency booklet that stated “antivirals will be available to high risk individuals” and gave us directions on how to know when it will be our time to go to the mass vaccination point.I could rant,but will just say,God(or whatever higher power)bless us all.

ColdClimatePrepperat 14:30

Anonymous at 00:35

No insult was intended to anyone. I clearly did not explain properly what I meant.

I’m just commenting on how difficult it is to wrap one’s mind around these numbers. Most people, myself included, have a hard time thinking of this sort of catastrophe. It boggles the mind and can lead to a variety of reactions, from denial to preparing frantically. TPTB are just human beings too, prone to the range of reactions, and vulnerable to the difficulty in facing these numbers. I believe it takes time to absorb the possibilities, and begin to act in productive ways. I’m hoping we are starting to see those actions happening, though I’m not confident the world will be very well prepared if it happens soon.

Its just a comment on human nature. If there is a pandemic, I believe it will become the norm to be preppers and to imagine the consequences of plagues. But it might take seeing it happen, for many people to really “get it,” unfortunately.

Anon With A Question – at 14:59

I watched the India situation because of what happened to the health care industry there. They were swamped with patients, hcw’s were dying, and this went on for a few weeks. They seem to be recovering at this point, but does anyone have any first hand experience or statistics to show what it did (or will do) to them in the long run?

He thinks I’m crazy too – at 16:55

You’r right the possibility of 75 million dead in the US is mind boggeling!!!!

Watching in Texas – at 17:23

I have no intention of depending on our health care system during a pandemic. Grace RN said a while back (and this is not a direct quote, so if I don’t get it exactly right, Grace please forgive me) that old fashioned home nursing will be what is needed. I just hope and pray that if my family gets sick, I can stay well long enough to provide that level of care. I have sat by sick children many a long night giving them spoonfuls of Gatorade to keep them hydrated and that is what I envision if they contract H5N1 or whatever the next pandemic is - there aren’t going to be enough of anything at a hospital during a pandemic - we’re just going to have to do the best we can at home. JMHO, of course:-)

Watching in Texas – at 17:25

That was supposed to be a :-) at the end!

Leo7 – at 17:44

WIT: I hope it’s as simple as good old fashioned home nursing. But with the lack of mild cases as evidence, I’m not hopeful. What I’ve been reading from the doctors that treated the patients in the “hospital” was they couldn’t control the temperature, the drop in blood preassure, the inability to breathe, or the ARDS that developed in their patients. They gave the meds, they intubated and put them on ventilators, and the course of the disease was changed enough for survival for some, but rehabilitation is taking these same patients who survived months to recover. They had to tube feed them. You can’t do this level of intervention at home. Maybe if you’re a doctor nurse team with a ventilator, medicines and all the equipment at your disposal.

 Realistically there is no chance if the CFR doesn’t drop in the home setting.  That’s why discussion threads changed so much to isolate and SIP as long as you can because everyone is hoping for a CFR drop, so home nursing may help. Try to monitor the CFR as the disease breaks out(if it does).

 I don’t mean to be cruel or cold here, just realistic, the best hope is SIP and as I said before-if I had kids I would lock them in their rooms.  They might hate you, but they might not get infected either.

The reason TOMDVM called H5N1 a freak of nature is because freaks aren’t the normal, they’re the abnormal. Woodson’s care plan is all based on the fact that the CFR drops, otherwise you’re standing a death watch.

anon – at 18:00

When I started this thread I did mean it to be a bit of a rant on hospital administrators who just don’t get it and basically will “get back to you in a few months on that” if at all. I am going to take control of my practice at the grassroots and steal masks or whatever from around the hospital and demand that the staff that support me,…. mask my patients with respiratory sx and I will mask myself no matter what the social stigma.

I agree with Leo7. I posted months ago that I dealt with a loved one with Legionaires pneumonia in an ICU. It takes INTENSE, minute management of ventilators when someone is this sick and she did not even technically have ARDS and had a disease that should respond to antibiotics. It still took 3–4 days on a vent to clear and since she was herself a nurse she had the best cardiologists and bypass surgeons “looking over the shoulders” of the internists, RN’s and respiratory therapists and tweaking things. The harsh reality is that you as G.Q public could not even imagine this level of care in a non-pandemic setting.

Home care will be valuable for those who do not go into cytokine storm/ARDS type body shutdown. Darwin did not say it would be easy

anontoo – at 18:18

Anon:

Recently, when AF was mentioned to my Nurse Manager at lunch one day, she said our Chief Nursing Officer was also concerned about Bird Flu. The woman had a net positioned above her office, which was in a portable building, so that birds could not come in contact with it. We’re screwed at my hospital.

Walrus – at 20:01

My partner is a school teacher at a private school with a considerable chinese overseas enrolment - Rich Chinese send their kids overseas for schooling. One of the characteristics of kids is that you don’t always get the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth, from them all the time. One of the characteristics of the Chinese culture is a propensity to say “Yes” never to say no, and preferably say what they think a person would like to hear.

This makes life quite interesting for my partner, like the fifteen year old kid who buys a turbocharged Subaru Impreza WRX, somehow gets it into her driveway, and blandly tells her he has a licence to drive in China (oh sure!).

However, on a more serious note, this very nearly caused a tragedy when we had the SARS epidemic. A schoolgirl told her guardian hear and her parents she was going interstate to see friends during school holidays. She didn’t - she went to see her boyfriend in Hong Kong at the height of the epidemic. We only found out afterwards when she told a girlfriend who immediately reported her.

While the Australian pandemic plan calls for temperature monitoring and screening of passengers when we hit phase four, my partner is going to have the school either pull their passports or tell them that if they go overseas during the pandemic, they are not to bother coming back.

I gather that when A phase four is declared the government here is going to advise people to postpone all non essential travel as well as start their preps.

cactus – at 20:09
  Walrus, that doesn`t sound like a simply “rich Chinese” problem, that sounds like a typical teenager problem, with a bit more free cash,that is.;-)
anonymous – at 20:45

hmm..remember when some one posts anon…there are no credential checks….”buyer beware”

I would suggest looking at syntax and reconsider stated credentials.

Bump – at 21:20
ICP – at 22:31

I resigned my position as the Infection Control Position at my hospital because I could not get Administration to buy into pandemic preparedness. We were too busy spending money on art, new furniture, and sod for landscaping and there were no funds to properly purchase PPE, additional supplies, etc.

I laid awake at night worrying how I was going to get things in order and protect staff, educate everyone, develop plans, execute plans, etc. and be the sole champion of this project without the support of an administrator who thought it was just a lot of hype. After nearly 20 years fulltime employment there, I woke up one day and decided I could not be soley responsible for the health and welfare for an entire community healthcare facility should a pandemic occur and that was exactly what I was being held accountable for so I wrote my resignation, worked my notice, took two months off to rest, play, finish my personal preps and get a job in a facility that is preparing (I worked with their IC staff on a regional pandemic task force) and does have administrative support.

Had I stayed where I was, if I survived the pandemic, I would have driven myself nuts worrying about the ones who didn’t and thinking of perhaps what I could have maybe done differently to get TPTB to get on board. To date, they still aren’t and I resigned over 3 months ago.

ICP – at 22:33

Should read Infection Control Professional - not position. Tired eyes. Sorry. :>0

anon for this thread too – at 23:16

Are we there yet - 11:51

Tamiflu for “7 weeks”? Was that a typo?

No, unfortunately.

She might have been confused with using Tamiflu for prophylatic effect. I read an article months ago that stated prophylatic use of Tamiflu by healthcare workers would require enough meds for 7 weeks. Obviously that’s not correct it would need to be taken as long as there is exposure. I hope that thought isn’t widespread.

But looking on the bright side, she did get the name of the medication right.

08 November 2006

Leo7 – at 01:58

ICP:

Wow, the commitment to follow through on your convictions is admirable. I don’t know too many people who would do that. I know you worked hard to make that position. In the end, when stress is keeping you awake like that you need to act, and you did. You’re more healthy for your patients and your family now. I can say from various experiences that some hospitals are more toxic than others, especially with this.

I went to weekend duty in order to fit school into my life—it was a commitment to my personal happiness and a signal not to dwell to much on what I can’t change, although I still try. I don’t have as much “free money” for fun things, but I’m happier with making that decision. It all comes down to what you can live with.

anonymous – at 02:12

anon – at 21:45 “Will I serve or SIP….the answer is obvious.”

Hopefully not too late when you decide to SIP

spam alert – at 10:15

ICP, now if there were only journalists anymore; who wanted to write about ethics of local pandemic (un)preparedness…

All the best to you all…

crfullmoon – at 10:16

oops that was me -silly library computer…

NauticalManat 12:05

Relative I talked to yesterday said his wife, a nurse who works for a large suburban regional hospital, has been informed that if TSHTF all workers and their family members will be supplied with Tamiflu. After trying for a year to get him to take it seriously and being told they would come stay with me (jokingly),(no way I told him), they have now started to prep.. Do not know what other plans the the hospital may have in place, but will try to find out.

crfullmoon – at 12:32

I hope they did the math - and, looked to see that the tamiflu is in the cupboard, and not on backorder -

Do they say they plan to have mountains of it; to use prophylactically for months, or, are they going to give it to staff when they get sick and need to be on a vent?? Are they realistic about the doses required and that pandemic may be resistant when it gets here? How much PPE and food and security for the hospital staff is ready now?

Ask the hospital how they will expedite pronouncing death, make legal death certificates, and bury id’ bodies without letting work pile up - are they talking to lawmakers to make pandemic exceptions for who can do paperwork?, brainstorming with the local funeral directors and cemetery trustees and faith communities? Have they seen the links on the Mass Fatality Plans threads? (Or on the main wiki index; under Deceased persons, or Mortuary)

ICP – at 23:34

Thanks for the kind words.

I am using what knowledge I have to offer to my community to help teach on all levels about pandemic prep and encourage folks to prepare to SIP and be less dependent upon hospital-based healthcare. I approach it from the “hospitals will be overwhelmed and this is what you need to be prepared to do at home” standpoint, so I do not reveal the truth about the system failure (I also live in the same community)in hopes that someone at the hospital will wake up and get it together in time. I just fear that it isn’t going to happen.

I am very satisfied with my new position and had several offers at different facilities and feel I chose wisely and carefully. It was never about money, hours, benefits, etc. It was simply, where can I contribute something that will benefit others the most?

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Page last modified on November 08, 2006, at 11:34 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Michigan Planning Prep

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Michigan Planning Prep

30 January 2006

EOD – at 10:16

Finally something happening in Michigan. Today is the first of three initial meetings/conferences on Avian Influenza.

“In response to growing concerns about local and state readiness regarding the Avian Influenza House Republican Reps. Ed Gaffney & Neal Nitz announced joint committee meetings between the House Health Policy committee and the House Agriculture committee on preparedness strategies. “We want to talk to people from the state departments as well as local on the ground. In order to ensure that we have the most effective plan we need to have input from as many people as possible” .

Dates and locations: 1) Monday January 30 at 3:00 PM at the Eberhard Center, room 215, on the downtown Grand Rapids campus of Grand Valley State University. 2) Monday February 6 at 10:30 AM at St. John Hospital & Medical Center, Medical Conference Room 390, in the Mack Office Building Detroit. 3) Tuesday February 14 at 10:30 AM in the House Appropriations room in Lansing.

anonymous – at 10:38

Mid Michigan environmental services lady says she is going on the 14th.I asked her why wait but apparently she has a food borne issue in the area she is working on.She is probably going to regret giving me her cell number but too bad…

retired paramedic – at 15:39

Michigan has purchased 36,000 doses of tamiflu. and I have read the plan on how it will be stored, shipped and transported by armed escort to whatever outbreak area we happen to have in the state. But then….. as I recall when I was a working Paramedic in Ann Arbor that there were aprox. 27,000 licensed EMT/Paramedics in the state. (1990′s)I’m not sure how many Cops, or Fire Fighters there are. But we also have a population of ten million. So, who will get the tamiflu? First responders? or sick citizens whose tax dollars paid for the 36,000 doses. Now, about a month ago, I asked my local pharmacist if she was getting alot of questions about tamiflu. She said a couple of people had asked about it. I asked her if she thought she had an adequate supply on hand. She responded that since it had been available for about three years, and very few people ever asked for it, and she had some sitting on her shelf waiting to expire,….. that yes, she had plenty. My concern is more with my employer. Does the Corporation have a plan for how we are going to run the store with a third of the employees sick, a third dead, (worst case, paramedics tend to think that way.)and a third too scared to come to work and be around all the sick ones that have to work to feed themselves. I havent seen anything on the web to show that “The Company” is preparing in any way other than mounting a PR campaign to re-assure the sheep that eating our food will not kill you.(with the bird flu)

31 January 2006

EOD – at 15:38

Well, I attended that first meeting, and now plan to attend the ones next week and the week after. At this meeting the main focus was on the poultry industry and its current bio-containment. It seems like they are on top of things (have been for several years now) and have a working plan in place. Several things I picked up on. (1)The poultry industry is very concerned about the potential for this to severely damage their business and are preparing a educational campaign to dispel the “media created myths” on the Bird Flu. (2) All the talk at this meeting was centered on a possible pandemic entering the US population through our own poultry industry (both commercial and ‘back-yard’ flocks) and the systems in place for early detection and containment. There was no mention at all of the virus entering the country by way of human carriers of an H2H virus, though in fairness a couple things were said that lends me to believe that will be the topic of discussion at one or both of the next scheduled meetings.

The state reps from the health department were there and gave the most encouraging testimony, they seemed to understand the risk and potential and much of the planning they spoke of centered on different containment measures such as quarantine. Their hand out had a number of pointed statements such as “Serious infectious disease – specifically an Avian Influenza Pandemic – will effect national security and the global economy”, “The dire predictions related to an Avian Influenza Pandemic will only be mitigated and controlled via a strong and responsible public health system”, etc.

Apparently Michigan does have a written plan available since summer 2005

http://www.michigan.gov/mdch/0,1607,7-132-2945_21919_25536-72730--,00.html

With an updated version (version 2.2) consisting of 105 pages just made available in January 2006

http://www.michigan.gov/documents/Pandemic_v2_146401_7.2_0.19_.pdf

I intend to spend some time tonight reviewing these documents. All-in-all, encouraging.

janetn – at 23:17

Well I to am glad at least something is happening. I fear from the blurb on the evening news that the focus is going to be how to mitagate the economic damage. Again I heard those familuar words “dont panic” and “chicken is safe to eat” nothing on preparing for the long haul. Im begining to wish they would say OK get your butts out there and stock up for months - or panic EEKS!

Keep us informed

08 February 2006

EOD – at 14:28

Well, I attended Monday’s meeting in Detroit. The first meeting here in Grand Rapids focused on the poultry industry and their preparedness and response plan, this second meeting focused on the Public Health industry, hospitals, etc. The meeting next week in Lansing on Tuesday February 14 is supposed to focus on the other sectors of society, businesses, organizations and individuals. I just sent an email off to each member of the joint committee voicing my concerns & asking a number of specific questions and asking for them to respond to those at this next meeting. In my letter I encouraged them (and posted links) to visit fluwikie and also directed them to Dr. Osterholm’s report.

http://www.cmc-amman.gov.jo/Preparing%20for%20the%20Next%20Pandemic.doc

Now we’ll just wait and see. So far, in the first two meetings, the state Health Department representatives seemed to grasp the seriousness of the whole thing, I just hope the members of the committee (who are in position to actually act and do something) are becoming more aware as well.

EOD – at 14:58

WOW I only sent that email out 40 minutes ago and have already received two phome calls and 4 email responses from the State Representatives offices, and actual repsonses too not an automated one.

janetn – at 19:52

No way your kidding they actually responded Im shocked. Who responded - I want to make sure they get my vote!! If you could would you post the Email addys of the members Id like to add my concerns and questions.

os – at 21:12

EOD—Can you tell us what you have asked and how they responded? ty

09 February 2006

debp – at 06:32

hi, i am new and also from the mid-michigan area. that thing back in january that they were working on was a restaurant. a worker made over 200 people sick in one weekend from giving them their stomach flu. ironic isn’t it? i am trying to talk to our local officals and am getting nowhere.

EOD – at 09:40

The email responses I received though not auto generated did not specifically address any of the issue or questions I asked, they were more of a thank you for attending the meetings, you are the first person from the general business community to contacts us, thank you for your observations and for voicing your concerns, etc., etc. One of the two phone calls was of the same nature; the other call was much more of an exchange of ideas and concerns. That particular Representative told me there was great concern in the state government of public overreaction and panic unless they controlled the release of information. The condensed version of what she told me was that she knew for certain that certain segments of the population in her district (at least)would be in the streets rioting and looting TODAY unless public announcements were kept low key and given out a little at a time. As has been stated on other threads, learning, acceptance & understanding comes in little jumps and leaps, I am seeing this is true with our public officials as well. There is currently a concern strong enough to act upon but a lack of acceptance that this is an immediate & gravely serious threat.

Here is the link for the Michigan House Health Policy Committee. It lists the committee members and by clicking on each name you are redirected to their individual web sites that have email addresses.

http://house.michigan.gov/committeeinfo.asp?lstcommittees=Health%20Policy

Here is the link for the Michigan House Agriculture Committee.

http://house.michigan.gov/committeeinfo.asp?lstcommittees=Agriculture

The meetings are a joint effort combining both committees. At both meetings Representative Nitz has acted as chair.

Some have asked what questions I posed, in the next post I’ll just cut & paste from my email so you can see those. To make sure I was listened to I tried to point out the gravity of the situation but also not appear as a raving lunatic waving an end of the world sign.

EOD – at 09:42

Not sure how this will appear when posted, probably with the format all messed up, but nothing I cAn do about that I guess.

I live in Michigan work for an organization in Grand Rapids called Mel Trotter Ministries. http://www.meltrotter.org/ Mel Trotter is a faith based homeless shelter and substance abuse treatment facility. My interest in this began with a conversation with a friend and started as a personal interest but then quickly incorporated a business interest as well. In my position as Food Service Director I have a great deal of contact with the homeless of our community and therein lies some of my concerns. I see the Avian Influenza as presenting a real challenge to organizations such as Mel Trotter in maintaining operations and insuring a continuance of services in a Pandemic situation. On any given night in Michigan there are over 30,000 people who find themselves homeless. Of that number some 10,000 may be in shelters, many others on the streets, in cars, etc. http://www.mihomeless.org Due to life style, this segment of our population is particularly susceptible to any type of infectious pandemic; their immune systems are often severely compromised, they have no place to quarantine themselves to, they have no food supplies nor anyone capable of providing care. Also, they tend to avoid treatment of health issues and when they do seek treatment their only recourse is an emergency room. If the virus were to get a foot hold in this group of people, they alone would overwhelm our hospitals.

I am not a health care professional and so am unable to provide input or ask questions at the joint committee meetings, however I would like to make a few observations and then pose several questions. Will you please respond to these concerns and questions at the meeting on February 13, 2005 in Lansing?

1) Many comparisons are being made between the virus that caused the 1918 pandemic and H5N1. In fact, most of the models being used today to predict the course and extent of the next pandemic are simply an extrapolation of those figures. The SARS epidemic has also been used to establish some comparison. Combined those figures paint a frightening enough picture but are they sufficient?
a. SARS is less easily transmitted than influenza, it has a longer time (about 3 times?) between “generations” of new cases, it is not contagious before symptoms, and it was only controlled by extreme efforts by the cities and countries involved. The numbers of reported cases and resulting deaths were miniscule in comparison to any influenza pandemic yet the effect it had on economies and businesses was enormous.
b. H5N1 is much more virulent than seasonal influenza. Iwas going to repair this to fix sidescroll but it’s a dead link - pogge
c. Unlike SARS, H5N1 is contagious long before symptoms occur, even longer than “common” influenza. Please note some of the specifics of the Bird Flu in this article from the New England Journal of medicine. Particularity the longer incubation period with upper limits as high as 8 to 17 days. This alone should give concern to the potential speed and extent of transmission that this particular virus presents. http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/353/13/1374

2) Our culture and society today are very different from that of 1918 and many of those differences may increase the danger rather than lessen it. a. In 1918 much of the population (80%) lived in rural settings and only 20% lived in cities; today that figure is almost reversed. WHO has acknowledged that this fact greatly affected the ease of quarantine in 1918. Won’t today’s population figures make it almost impossible to effectively quarantine large numbers of people today? b. In 1918 most of the people grew and stored their own food. Today most people have no more than a couple weeks of food in their home and most who live in the cities have no more than a couple of meals. c. Transportation in 1918 was much slower and far fewer people traveled much beyond their own town or county. Today over 10,000,000 people cross international borders every single day. In the US alone last year more than 680,000,000 people flew on domestic flights, that’s over 1,863,000 per day. d. The people of 1918 were much more self sufficient and self reliant than today. Look at Katrina where a large segment of the population did nothing other than wait for someone to come to their aid. e. The U.S. population is also much more diverse genetically today than it was even in 1918. It is possible that a modern Pandemic would result in uneven fatality rates in some geographic areas and populations in the U.S. on the basis of inherited resistance or susceptibility. If such differences do occur, they will be even more visible worldwide. f. Health care is much different today than in 1918. Today, compared to 1918, far more people live another day only because of modern medicine; “collateral” deaths may be much greater. I’m referring to the medically frail, from babies to the elderly who face a huge risk from any infection: immunocompromised from AIDS, cancer and or treatment, those with arthritis, asthma, lupus, etc who are on chronic steroids or other immunosuppressant drugs; dialysis, sickle cell, ventilator patients…the list goes on and on. These Americans are among the first to face the reality of a quick death from any interruption in the supply chain for reasons like intravenous or enteral nutrition, continuous home nursing, life saving medications, and need for prompt health care intervention to even mild fluctuations in their health status. None of these folks would have lived long enough to become so frail and dependent in 1918, so a pandemic today in 2006 in these people will push the death toll even higher. We have nearly 2 million people in nursing homes, and for many of them, their survival in a pandemic situation is doubtful. g. Our “just-in-time” supply chain will collapse in a pandemic. If every person in any community went to the store and bought even 1 day’s worth of food the shelves would be emptied. If large numbers of people have to go into quarantine or if the food supply chain is interrupted (and it will be) how will food be supplied to the people, where will it come from? The US government no longer has emergency food stores for its people. Where we previously had up to 3 years emergency food stored for each person, there is now less than 16 pounds and of that, 11 pounds are in the form of raw wheat.

3) The figures being used to formulate pandemic plans range from “best case” scenarios to average or median. According to a report in the Washington Post, certain members of Congress received a secret briefing about the bird flu on October 12, 2005. In that briefing the upper-limit figure of 40 million to 42.5 million dead in the U.S. was raised. (Source: “Capitol Hill Flu Briefing Was No Trick, and No Treat”, Washington Post, Thursday, October 13, 2005; Page A02. Quote: “O’Toole, a medical doctor and public health specialist, said the bird flu of concern is potentially worse than the 1918 pandemic that killed 675,000 Americans. And this time, she said, the mortality rate might not be 1 or 2 percent, but 40 or 50 percent. “You can do the arithmetic,” O’Toole said. For those keeping score, that’s 40 million to 42.5 million dead.”) http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9675585/site/newsweek/

	I am not an alarmist but shouldn’t at least some degree of planning be based upon those greater numbers?  

Please take time to read the following report by Michael T. Osterholm, PhD, MPH Dr. Osterholm is director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), associate director of the Department of Homeland Security’s National Center for Food Protection and Defense (NCFPD), and professor in the School of Public Health, University of Minnesota. He is also a member of the Institute of Medicine (IOM) of the National Academy of Sciences. In June 2005 Dr. Osterholm was appointed by Michael Leavitt, Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), to the newly established National Science Advisory Board on Biosecurity.

http://www.cmc-amman.gov.jo/Preparing%20for%20the%20Next%20Pandemic.doc

I would also suggest that you spend some time at a particular website which both the CDC and WHO recommend people go to for information on Avian Influenza. http://fluwikie.com/

I ask that you begin to address these questions publicly now rather than wait for a pandemic to begin. Making public such information now may cause some over reaction but that would not compare to the confusion caused by waiting until the event is upon us.

Questions concerning organizations like Mel Trotter Ministries: 1. Is it a “given” that in a pandemic quarantine situation organizations like Mel Trotter would be shut down? 2. What would be the “trigger” that would close our doors? 3. If we are forced to shut down, what plan and mechanism is in place to provide food and housing for our clients, the homeless? 4. Is there anything that can be done now to insure organizations such as Mel Trotter could stay open? 5. Could an Emergency Operations Plan be developed that would satisfy a criteria to allow us to stay open? 6. Are there any state agencies that could assist in the development of such a plan?

Questions from a concerned member of the public. 1. In your first committee meeting the focus was upon the poultry industry and their planning, the second meeting had its focus on the Public Health industry. What is being done in other sectors of society? What plan is there to insure that the basic needs of food and water will be met? What is planned to insure the continuation of basic services or utilities such as water, electricity, natural gas? Most public utilities have emergency contingency plans. Those plans are rather limited in their scope and duration, are they adequate to deal with supply and personnel disruptions that will exist in a pandemic situation? Most municipalities have only a few days supply of disinfectant for water treatment, if the supply chain is broken how will they supply safe potable water? 2. In the two previous meetings most if not all of the discussion involved bird-to-human transmission. The safeguards in place in our poultry industry would seem to minimize that threat. What is much more likely to occur is the virus mutating to a human-to-human variety outside the US and then entering on human carriers. With H5N1 being contagious many days before symptoms appear this pandemic may spread to all segments of the population before it is even noticed. What is in Michigan’s Pandemic plan to anticipate and deal with this possibility? 3. What will be the “trigger” in deciding to close schools, churches, and other places of public gathering? 4. In the most recent meeting the question was asked “what is the current level of preparedness” in our hospitals? One answer given concerned quantity of supplies, medications, masks, etc. and it was stated that they were being told to “prepare to be on your own for 72 hours”. Who told the hospitals 72 hours and where does the 72 hour figure come from? In reality won’t supply disruptions be more in the nature of days or weeks rather than hours? I recently went into a pharmacy in one of Grand Rapids hospitals looking to buy some N95 masks. There were two boxes on the shelf, I bought them both and it was over a week before they were finally replaced, and then with only three boxes. If the supply of something so basic is lacking now under normal conditions, what will occur to change that to the better in a sudden pandemic? 5. If we see large numbers of people being quarantined, and the “just-in-time” supply chain breaks down (and please explain how it could not break down), what plan and mechanism is there to get food & water, and medical treatment to the public quarantined in their homes? Where will these supplies come from? 6. What about mental health facilities i.e. inpatient psychiatric facilities; some may have court committed patients or patients downgraded from larger state facilities for sex offenders etc, Meghan’s’ law tracking, community based group homes, boarding homes. Most of these have large number of chronically ill mentally ill and/or dual diagnosis patients (i.e. mentally ill chemical abusers (MICA). What is in the State plan to provide for these facilities? 7. What about our jail and prison system? How will they handle their supply and personnel disruptions? Most are short staffed now, how will they deal with one third or more of their staff being absent from work? 8. What are the determining factors in deciding what businesses should close and which should stay open? Will this be a decision left to the business owners or will the state make that decision? 9. What would qualify a person for state “unemployment” income in the event that companies close down in the wake of a pandemic? Might be better for a company to go ahead and shut down as soon as a pandemic starts and let the employees apply for unemployment benefits early on while it is still possible to sign up? If a company tries to limp by for a while and closes later, the employees might be out of luck because the system would be too clogged to process new claims, are state employment officials making plans for such a situation?

I plan to attend next week’s joint committee meeting in Lansing; I look forward to having these questions answered in that meeting.

malachi – at 09:51

Debp…I think they are pretty busy at the health dept. here,as mid MI is having the largest outbreak of whopping cough that the state has seen in decades.I see it as a wakeup call to the area,and I see the local health dept reacting in a positive way,making plans for bf,planning to attend the meeting on the 14th in Lansing that eod has mentioned…I got the phone # for MT>P’s local emergency planning response team and they meet next week.As I have been in lots of contact with the health dept.lady she asked me to join in that meeting…If you are near MT>P lmk…I will give you the number to ask if you can come also…

debp – at 10:29

thanks, i would love to go to it, but right now it is a little far for me- i don’t travel in winter.(bad arthritis). i did have an odd thing happen- i was trying to talk to someone at the local hospital about what they would do about the bf- and she actually asked me if there was a case in town. i said no-none in the us yet- but that reaction alone scares me a little.

malachi – at 10:35

We certainly have plenty of out of town/country visitor cause of that gambling joint here and I suspect it may bring us bf sooner than some places if sustained h2h were to occur.did she have answers for you as to what they would be doing to prepare for bf.

debp – at 10:42

yes, i think our town will be hit hard (with a major chemical company headquaters here) i have friends coming and going out of the country weekly for work. i can’t get anywhere- tried the health department and then the hospital. i think the woman thought i was loony for even asking. she is supposed to call me back. i don’t hold out much hope. for a town this “well educated” sometimes i wonder.

malachi – at 10:53

Seems like maybe some of those scientist would be making a deal of it…I might think of trying the pr dept..at the headquarters if I were you…I am close enough myself,I may try that.Good Luck Deb.If you are new to the wiki pay close attention to the prepping info here it is very useful…

debp – at 12:21

thanks, i have found this site really helpful. i just bought the huge bottles of laundry soap(buy one get two free at meijers) only to realize i had 2 in the basement- i guess i have laundry covered for a year. i have a whole list of little things to get- if only my budget holds out.

debp – at 16:10

i talked to someone at the health dept. about what our town had planned. he was very friendly and it sounds as if they have some plans in place. he said they have 100 cots available to set up at a different location than the hospital. but.. a hundred cots for a town with 45k people? he said next month they are going to start doing some pr about the bird flu. one thing he did say was that he doesn’t believe it is h2h yet, and that you can get bf from eating the chicken. (i thought you couldn’t) but i was at least somewhat happy to know they are at least getting prepared for it.

15 February 2006

retired paramedic – at 03:23

So does anyone have any info on yesterdays meeting in Lansing? (the 14th). I couldnt get the Ag committe page to open.

25 March 2006

lutosh – at 15:55

Anyone in Michigan finding dead crows?

EOD – at 16:09

Well, I have heard of a few being spotted at a concert recently :)

lutosh – at 16:41

Originally published March 7, 2006 Dead crows cause concern for the county Anthony Martinez Beven The Enquirer Several Battle Creek residents have raised concern over about 10 dead crows found in the parking lot of the Columbia Plaza Shopping Center on 20th Street in front of the Big Lots store Sunday evening. Mary Dressel of Battle Creek said she was driving on 20th Street with her husband when she noticed the crows.

“With the West Nile virus found in crows, we couldn’t help but wonder if these crows were sick, or if anyone checked into it,” Dressel said. Calhoun County epidemiologist Amy Latham doubted the crows died of West Nile. But she said once information was received about the crows, it was forwarded onto the environmental health division. Ted Havens, director of environmental health at the county health department, said the West Nile virus program coordinator was unable to collect the bird specimens before the parking lot maintenance staff at Columbia Plaza disposed of the birds Monday. Havens said the West Nile virus typically is transmitted by mosquitoes during the spring and summer months. He also said crows and blue jays have been infected by the virus more than other bird species. He said the environmental health division will keep an eye out for other cases like this. Kim Signs, a disease epidemiologist with the Michigaan Department of Community Health, said only one dead bird case was reported by the county health department last year. The specimen was not tested at state health department facilities, she said, so the results were unknown.

I also saw these birds, at first I thought maybe some kids shot them with a pellet gun because they were all laying next to a light pole but I’m sure if some one shot at them the rest would fly away.Besides there was no arm on the light pole for that many birds to be sitting on. The newspaper also reported there were 10 dead crows but there were 12, 11 were in the parking lot and one was across the street in the schools lawn. Just seems strange to me. Birds don’t just fall from the sky for no reason.

retired paramedic MI – at 17:08

MSU with this great and all powerful new animal testing lab. and we can’t even get the dead animals to it. Too bad we didn’t inform the public in a timely manner.

Bon – at 17:40

I am here in the Saginaw area watching the birds for anything strange. We had West Nile confirmed in the population of crows in our neighborhood last summer. I found some information on the MI gov. web site for people to contact if you see a die off.

http://tinyurl.com/mzksc

also might check the usda

http://tinyurl.com/nua8t

I thought the DNR plan was worth the read. I don’t think we will get a whole lot of response if we find dead birds because of the lack of resources (money and people).

I had to take my poor cat to the vet today (no not BF, he’s a house cat). I asked if they had gotten any information on BF and he said no, just what he picked up on the WNEM story.

http://tinyurl.com/ppo7j

Waiting, watching and protecting in Michigan

retired paramedic MI – at 18:20

I’m starting to see more and more links to the thought that Michigan will be among if not the first state to see the bird flu here in the USA. So few people I know have even heard of the bird flu. Imagine what they will think when they see their state on the nightly news as ground zero.

26 March 2006

janetn – at 14:21

Any plan to require poultry to be kept indoors yet.

I have contacted our counties emergency director - see if he bothers to call me back. i dont think we have a plan.

retired paramedic MI – at 15:30

I wrote to my state senator and asked her what the state was doing as far as informing the public. no response on that question, however she did say that the dept of community health, agriculture, and natural resources are cooperating to monitor any outbreak. and approved HB 5630 that requires Commiunity health to develop and maintain a Panflu plan. She lives about a half mile from me, (which I found out after I wrote.) So at least I know that I’m not the only one in the county that knows whats coming. She attended all three of the meetings held in state so far. And what’s up with Levett? why isnt michigan even included in the next group of 20 states to hear his speech? We may possible be the first state hit and I have only found one news story about it dated the 20th.

janetn – at 21:20

Dont have an answer for you Ive contacted the governor and senators regarding the lack of PPEs and forced conscription of HCW so far Im batting 0 did get a phone message from the governors office hes to call me back Tues - we shall see. May I sugest you give the governor a call and express your concerns regarding the states lack of planning for HCW and forced conscription after all a election is looming. Working together we might get a ressponse Id urge you to ask all your friends to do the same. My next step is going to be the news media - I wonder if they would like to do a story on forcing HCW to work without adaquate PPEs. We have a pretty fiesty TV reporter on channel 8 in GR

27 March 2006

retired paramedic MI – at 03:17

here’s what bothers me, If we, the little people are aware and concerned about this, why isn’t Michigans leaders? It just seems like it should have been them informing us, not the other way around.

debp – at 06:02

I hate to say it- but maybe it’s a case of we can ignore anything the public doesn’t know about. You would think she would be stepping up, though, with that last report of Michigan being one of the first states to have bird flu. Although, I live in Midland and for at least 2 years they denied west nile, even though Saginaw,Bay City and every surrounding county had it. It was a case of “it’s not in my back yard”.

Galileo1564 – at 08:22

Here’s the thing, West Nile is NOT active in Michigan at this time. The season has not yet started. The West Nile season begins when the mosquitoes come out. These birds died of something. Our state is not yet testing for the Bird Flu!!!? The concern is for the people coming into contact with these dead birds. The red alert for the authorities is a group of dead birds. This is the MAJOR cause for concern. Groups of birds are known for dying of other diseases, but the fact that the State did not respond to a group death in this case is very worrisome. The farmers in the local area should be alerted and backyard poultry farmers should be on the lookout for, and should report, any dead birds in their flocks. Just because the migratory birds are not reported to have flown over Alaska and down into us yet is not a reason to be lax at this point in time. At the very least this situation should have been used as a practice. I am simply appalled.

retired paramedic MI – at 13:15

Galileo-

I agree %100. The system failed. Even if they all died of something that happens all the time here, it should have been investigated. Public awareness needs to be given a massive boost. I live so close to the ohio border that the only local news I get is from Toledo, so this wiki was the only way I heard of this. I wish there were more from Michigan declared on this board so we could get a better feel for how mwny preppers we have and if we are talking to enough county Health cooridinators, and local officials about what is coming, and are they ready?

02 April 2006

Galileo1564 – at 12:19

retired paramedic MI My concern is also for Mom-N-MO who posted on another site. She had a lengthy description of birds dying down in central MO. I looked on the map and her location seems to be just north of where an avian cholera outbreak occurred back in Jan 2006. I must find that thread and see if there is any more news.

One thought is this - there is a total hands off approach from the government. M.Levitt states and restates this in his dialog with federal, state and local officials. The message is clear and it is that each person is on their own. Do they believe that it makes no difference if the birds die? They probably expect it 100% and realize that the government will be faced with armed private citizens if any official tries to cull a backyard flock. I mean, you know the folks here, they are armed and ready to fight for their rights - the government would have a terrible time trying to enforce anything with an armed population who did not have all the facts. I wonder if the government is just waiting for the human outbreaks.

Bon – at 12:57

From what I have read, there isn’t much concern in ANY state regarding bird die-offs. As a private citizen, I am watching in my Saginaw area for any dead birds and will be inquiring of how to handle the situation from the TPTB. I don’t expect much help. Europe was a surprise to everyone when BF appeared, seemily all at once. It would not shock me to find it in my backyard any day.

A close friend of my daughters is a nurse in Saginaw and knows nada about BF. I would hate to see her forced to work to bring it home to her young daughters (who play with my gk’s). I feel soon this situation will not be able to be ingnored.

retired paramedic MI – at 13:48

well, my state senator is aware of the birdflu, having sat on the health committee meetings last month. But I know from talking to her son that she is not a prepper. She sat and heard the testimony from local experts. I dont remember for sure, but it seems to me it was the county health director from Midland or maby grand rapids. But the point is, I read his testimony transcripts. The state should be terrified of what is about to decend upon it. I know from first hand experience that the health care system will be overwhelmed, and non functioning three days into this. We lack the surge capicity to handle just the people that think they are sick, let alone the truly sick and dying. Too many times I had to shop around for a hospital to take a patient to, because the one a block away was closed to er traffic. Sometimes three hospitals closed at the same time in wayne county. Now down where I live, only one hospital in the entire county. four ambulances, eight paramedics. I used to have ten to twelve runs in a 24 hour shift. How long do you think it will be before the system fails?

22 April 2006

Retired Paramedic MI – at 18:46

Any Fluwikie types from Michigan manage to get one of the 500 invitations to the meeting with HHS on the 25th?

23 April 2006

malachi – at 00:05

Retired Paramedic,Spoke to local health dept Environmental Services lady today in Mt.Pleasant.3 from our office are going.I asked her if she could bring me as a guest as kinda a joke and she said no but that “we could have lunch on Wednesday” I will let you know what I find out.How did the Cabelas thing go the other night?

Retired Paramedic MI – at 03:21

the first hour was very good. If you are a regular on the wikie, you would have just sat there nodding your head going “yeah, knew that. and that, and that.” It was over the heads of most of the 80 some odd folks that were there. the second hour was all about why and how chickens lay eggs. third hour was Backyard Bio-security. Don’t wear the same clothes into your different coops. don’t raise chickens and turkeys in the same bldg. that sort of thing. they never disscused what the state plans to do to keep us safe. He did say to call the DNR if you find more than three dead birds at one time, and that you could get on a plane in an infected country and be here in 14 hours. Had a nice slide show too. as a Paramedic, I thought it was a little too graphic for some of the young kids that attended, but then, I’m not a farmer. Perhaps farm kids see chicken innards all the time. lol He did try to stress the fact that “when this thing goes H2H, all bets are off”. Talked about the MSU Animal Bio-lab and that we can get exact results on dead birds in 24 hours. We have one of only 13 labs in the country. there are four more of these seminars yet to be held. the next one is in Bay county.

24 April 2006

EOD – at 18:30

I did get an invitation to tomorrow’s summit. I contacted the state office for The Department of Community Health who directed me to the “person in charge”, a Rosemary Franklin. Rosemary extended me an invitation and directed me to a website set up to register for the summit. She also sent me a web address where they plan to have an archived web cast of the summit.

http://tinyurl.com/sxazq

But not of course until AFTER the summit.

I’ll try to get a summary post out in a couple days after attending.

27 April 2006

EOD – at 13:00

Here is a summary (of sorts) of what I picked up on at Michigan’s summit. The only order it is in is the order of presentation at the summit. I am leaving out the technical stuff on the virus itself, pandemics general info, etc. and will just post the items on preparedness. Sorry if this is unorganized but I don’t have much time to put this together - horribly busy week.

KEY FACTORS: Local Preparedness is the foundation – “Preparation = Thinking the unthinkable” Simultaneous outbreaks are a certainty in our culture today; Expect up to 40% absenteeism in the average business; Distribution of antivirals is critical – US goal is to build up to 81 million courses with 6m designated for containment of outbreaks & 75m to treat 25% of the population (the projected infection rate) CURRENT PROBLEMS – No current plan to distribute vaccine if/when developed, How to spend available funding, everyone has own ideas of what is critical – looking for Federal guidance on this issue, Vaccine producers have either gone to or are geared up & ready to go from 9 months per year production to 24/7 production HOMELAND SECURITY has identified 17 sectors & key assets: Under 6 categories (1) PRODUCTION INDUSTRIES – Energy, Chemical, Defense, (2) SERVICE INDUSTRIES – Banking & Finance, Transportation & Border Security, Postal & Shipping, (3) SUSTENANCE & HEALTH – Agriculture, Food, Water, Public Health, (4) FEDERAL & STATE – Government, Emergency Services, (5) IT & CYBER – Information Technology & Telecommunications, Internet Alert Dashboard, (6) OTHER – Commercial Facilities & Real estate, DHS daily report contact information, General HOMELAND SECURITY ROLE: (1) Secure borders and transportation systems; (2) Sustain the key assets & infrastructure, (3) Insure continuity of business, (4) Insure continuity of Government, (5) Overarching coordination role between Federal, State, and Local MI STATE POLICE – Clear command & control with predefined conditions & benchmarks triggering protocols (it aounded like they would be the main “arm” of enforcement for Homeland Security?) CHALLENGES TO PANDEMIC RESPONSE: (1) NO EMAC assistance – Emergency Management Assistance Compact = Through EMAC, a disaster impacted state can request and receive assistance from other member states quickly and efficiently (2) Reduction in volunteers, (3), (4) Sorry, missed those two SPECIFIC QUESTIONS TO THE PANNEL: (1) Social Distancing & School Closings – If needed on a State Level = Department of Comm. Health, on a Local Level = School Superintendent and/or Local Health Officer – Key public education piece will be general encouragement of staff & students to stay home for all sickness (2) Business Preparedness – Develop a general education module for employees now, develop a pandemic action plan (or use existing plans – see Gov websites) that includes predefined conditions & benchmarks triggering protocols, identifies key/critical operations & personnel, infection control plan that isolates employees & allows employees to work from home, advance stocking of critical supplies, level of coordination with local Health Department needed (3) Family & Individual Preparedness – Public education; risks & avoidance, advice on hygiene, seasonal flu vaccination; involve community & faith based organizations, plans need to be multi-dimensional (work, home, & school); practical solutions – basic plans, time needed to prepare, resources needed & available, stocking basic supplies. Major problems in MI hospitals that will have impact in a pandemic – Surge capacity; currently 26,000 beds in MI hospitals (1918 Flu pandemic MI had 100,000 infected), Access to supplies, Triage of the infected (including survivability evaluations), Isolation of the infected, Personnel shortages HEALTH DEPARTMENT ROLE – (1) Preparedness Plan – part of the states All Hazards Plan (stated that the plan has been tested twice already this year), (2) Each local HD has completed an assessment of their plan & is working to correct identified flaws, (3) Front line surveillance plan working with Hospitals, Physicians, and Pharmacies, (4) Timely containment – movement & travel restrictions, quarantine, (5) Public education – before, during, and after – key to public education = honesty of a frightening topic.

Bon – at 13:20

Thanks EOD for the summary. So glad Michigan had a summit.

Did anyone address any specfics on the security of municipal water supplies? Also, will they be forcing health care workers to work the duration?

EOD – at 14:27

The top 5 things Homeland Seurity gave as their priority was (1) Water (2) Food (3)Energy (4) Banking & Finance (5) Chemical Industry - plus border security was right up there too. He did not explain the items on the list, he just listed them.

I got the impression that health care workers is of particular concern especially for the eastern half of the state & especially the Detroit area, they mentioned that 25% of the hospital staffs were from Canada, but no mention was made of forced labor of any sort. A shortage of health cafre workers was mentioned several times through the summit but no solution was spoke of.

Retired Paramedic MI – at 14:32

It would seem that the State police will play the key role in manageing whatever the flu brings us. Captain Kriste Etue is the Commander of the Emergency Management and homeland security Division of the Michigan State Police. I live in a small village with contract police coverage provided by the county sheriff. Who will the locals call when the cops are both out sick. Who will put out the barn fires when the 25 fire fighters are too sick to respond. Why am I the only one in Michigan that thinks in a worst case scerario frame of mind. I asked one of my old partners that still works as a paramedic if she had heard abything at a meeting or just around the ambulance barn if the ambulance company was planning anything for the bird flu, she said not a word. They don’t think it is going to be a big deal. This is Huron valley Ambulance in Ann Arbor. They own/operate South Lyon ambulance, Jackson County Ambulance, lenewee County ambulance, and provide 911 response to Monroe county. And they don’t think it’s a big deal. We are truly on our own folks.

malachi – at 14:44

Thanks EOD for going and reporting back here.Was there anything said about the backyard poultry/small flocks in MI. or poultry in the upcoming county fairs?

malachi – at 14:53

Retired Paramedic….I’m with you :)but a friend of mine who is a fire fighter says he hasn’t heard a thing but assumes his company will do what they need to do.My hubby works for State Mental health,nothing said there.My mom in State FIA , nothing mentioned. I hope the recent meetings will spark some more action.

DebPat 19:29

One thing that bothers me is the recent surge of layoffs of police and firefighters in several towns. We are going to need everyone of them when this hits. Also, are they still going with the plan to close schools when a student gets sick? I had heard there was something going back and forth about the health dept. deciding when to close them.

28 April 2006

EOD – at 22:19

It sounded like the local health departments will be given much authority in things connected to containment; quarantines, closing schools & businesses, outlawing public gatherings of just about any sort. They did mention the first person making the decision at schools would be the superintendent but I imagine that would only be in the opening days of a pandemic and quickly shift to the local health officer.

Some mention was made about backyard flocks, mostly about an education program now and actual monitoring once the virus arrives in the US.

I too am concerned about the police & fire dept. I find it interesting that as this looms closer and closer with the virus expected to arrive on our shores this fall that right now we are beginning to hear of increased troop withdrawal from Iraq. That and other things make me wonder if the government is more concerned than they are letting on. Would make sense to build up slowing on public education to avoid panics. If that is the case, lets just hope & pray their timing is right on.

01 May 2006

malachi – at 10:11

Yesterday at my church we had “Preparedness Sunday”I was so happy and proud that 108 people who attended the service were told by their trusted pastor that they had better prepare.I provided the fellowship meal with easy store foods and spent several hours answering questions about food storage and preservation.we collected 450.00 for our food pantry.I guess I am now outed as a prepper for sure but the thought that these people I love and their children I love alot more are now possibly going to be prepared makes it worth it.

EOD – at 12:48

How did this come about, who instigated and who did the planning? I have spoken “in passing” to selected folks from our church but all I have gotten is a confused look and some comments about flu season is past for this year.

malachi – at 13:49

In late December I contacted my pastor to ask him if he was aware of the pandemic influenza threat.He was and we spent quite a bit of time discussing it.Over the next few months I continued to email links and my thoughts about what was going on.In March I asked him if he planned to have a sermon on preparedness anytime soon and he then said he would after Easter.His sermon was basically Being prepared physically,mentally and spiritually.His angle was more the “any emergency” but did name bird flu and pandemic influenza.He read scripture from Matthew 24 3–14 and spoke of the parable of the ten virgins and joesphs dream interpretation.He said “These things cannot be denied”(emergencies a’comin)and matthew 24–25 Being prepared is being a good Steward.I planned and provided the fellowship(for we Methodists “chow time”)which we do every week after church for an hour or so to munch and chat.I had a printout of water sanitation instructions,oral rehydration solution recipe,simple flu care instructions.He didn’t go into any things about social distancing or hand washing.Included in the program was a sheet titled “Physical preparedness Guide list” which our church secretary made up from several guides and checklists I had linked to her from fluwiki and more.It started out with the ski jump analagy(plan and prepare ahead,when you flying down the hill too late)Then had a sample food list,list of otc meds and reminder to stock perscription meds,another list with soaps and household needs,Advice to talk to loved ones of how they would like to be cared for with yet another list of stuff like lamps,oil matches,campstove,etc.Then had website to cdc,red cross,fema, Next she added…Be Aware that if an emergency occurs,emergency rooms may be filled,grocery stores may run out of food,gas may be scarce and utilities may fail. I think I just lucked out to have a pastor who is open to dealing proactively with this situation.

malachi – at 13:58

Also want to add that some people just didn’t really have much to say about it,others were full of questions but only 1 who openly said he was not worried at all.Oddly he has the most to worry about as he runs a pheasant hunting outfit.He raises the birds and his kids help him out.His 11 year old daughter only 2 weeks ago told me about how they spin them in a bag then let them fly out while the hunters shoot em down.I could see that the mom was worried after the service so I hope she goes home and looks on fluwiki which was the web site I had on my “Dont get caught with your pantries down sign”

19 May 2006

Lutosh – at 17:04

Where is everyone from Michigan? Has anyone heard what your county is doing to prepare? I have sent several e-mails in Calhoun County but have not recieved any response. No surprise there!

Bird flu preparations intensify

May 19, 2006 - 8:28AM

 (NEWS 3) - There have been no reported cases of bird flu in the U.S., but state leaders have stepped up surveillance. They want to know within hours if the deadly bird flu lands in Michigan. 

State health, wildlife, and farm experts have prepared plans on how to react to the avian flu. Two-thousand wild birds will be sampled for the flu this year. That’s on top of nearly constant monitoring of commercial chicken and turkey flocks, as well as hospitals.

The state’s Bio Safety Lab for Animal Testing is also on alert. They’ve been preparing for the bird flu for two years.

With new equipment and additional staff brought in to handle testing, the center’s director calls it the largest effort in the last 10 years. The center, located on the Michigan State University campus, will analyze the thousands of tests planned statewide.

“We can identify the bird flu, avian influenza virus, H5N1 in about three hours or less. That is vitally important because every minute counts,” said center director Dr. Willie Reed.

Reed says lab workers will be available 24 hours a day, seven days a week for testing if needed.

So far, there have been no cases of bird flu in North America.

http://www.wwmt.com/engine.pl?station=wwmt&id=26554&template=breakout_local.html

Bon – at 17:30

I’m here in Michigan. Reading away almost non stop this week. I am intent on getting the latest on the situation in Indonesia. These developements are making me do some serious shopping tomorrow.

I hope I am just being nervious and the only way I hear of a local case of BF is in a bird or two

Retired ParamedicMIat 19:36

I’m afraid there are very few of us prepping in MI

malachi – at 19:55

Prepping in Mid Mi. but sometimes feel I am the only one.Went to a local emergency planning meeting last week and tho they are thinking about things I feel it isn’t enough.I wish there would be more focus on personal preparedness rather than reasurance messages.I posted in the units of action threads about a phone message put on the www.cmhd.org (health dept.)phonelines.They have updated their website a bit to include links to pandemicflu.gov site.I think it seems like tptb in my town are thinking about things but not speaking out.

malachi – at 19:57

oops….www.cmdhd.org

janetn – at 22:34

Well I have a call into my countys health dept [thats where I was directed] that was over a month ago - not even a return call. I dont see any local action at all. The State is not doing anything to protect health and save lives. Their focus seems on staving off “panic” calming fears so we all still buy chicken.

I wont even go into the conversation with Grandholms office.

Im now anti politics - send em all to China on a slow boat!

What about alerting each other on deals in stores - Big lots has camping lights from $1.99 to $9.99

20 May 2006

DebPat 07:10

Funny, yesterday on the news they talked about Saginaw county having a “diaster preparedness drill”. The person being interviewed didn’t say a thing about bird flu, finally at the end, the interviewer kind of smirked and said for the bird flu, she agreed. After that piece they had a one minute segment on the Michigan summit. I feel so prepared now.

malachi – at 09:09

Central Mi health dept had a surprise drill about a week ago.State(I think)called them up and they had to go to their vax site after making several calls to their counterparts thru phone,cell,and radio contact.Also they came up with alot better distrubution of vax and antiviral plan,The old one was stuff people into lines at the football stadium.New one is park in center lane with drive up access.Thing is they seem to stop on the medical and emergency part.The preparedness and information part is really lacking.I haven’t asked them yet but the way they talk about the antivirals it seems maybe they have some stocked..I hope they aren’t counting on some promise of “Their share”

Lutosh – at 11:43

Its sad to see that there are only a dozen of us from Michigan. I found this site with a listing of all the county health departments if anyone is interested in contacting their local to find out what they are doing for the community to plan and prepare. http://www.malph.org/page.cfm/108/

Bon – at 17:58

DebP I saw the Saginaw piece on the news. IMO, I think everyone in the Saginaw area is WAY behind the curve. Maybe they are all focused on the Delphi/GM headache. There might not be anyone left here by the time it gets rolling.

I did some prep shopping today. I didn’t see any shortages but everything is up in price. Could be the reaction to fuel prices. I suggest if you see a good sale on anything you need to get it bought if at all possible.

One thing I really want and haven’t got yet is a pitcher pump for our old crock well. We have city water now but it seems like that would be nice to have as backup.

DebPat 18:29

I have been prepping for the last few months. You are right, everything has gone up in price. I won’t have any money for preps the next month or two, because I am buying a older car(the owners are letting me make payments). I guess you could say it is part of my preps, because I haven’t owned a car for the last two years. I was seriously thinking about never having one again because of the cost. But I was finding it was too hard to prep, because I couldn’t go to the stores when the sales were on.

Saginaw is going to be in some serious trouble when/if this hits. They are laying off so many of their police and fireman. I have noticed some of their crime is beginning to spill into our city. I feel very bad for all the troubles they are having now.

I should add my county isn’t much more prepared. They can spend millions on a new ice arena, high school football field and new jail- but only ordered 100 cots. It makes you wonder about people sometimes.

21 May 2006

Bridge Lifter – at 00:45
 “Its sad to see that there are only a dozen of us from Michigan.”

Lutosh, you can count me as one more from Michigan in the southern area.

The writing is on the wall… the government has warned the public and the masses respond by purchasing wide screen TVs and video games for their kids. If this goes H2H we will have a real mess on our hands. Everyone will be crashing their SUVs into the front door of Sams Club.

I don’t think the authorities have any concept what could happen or how to prepare. My kin folk are fat dumb and happy and my wife thinks that BF will go away if I just stop thinking about it.

I pulled up a migration map some time ago and noticed that MI is a main conduit for migrating birds from Canada.

malachi – at 08:32

Spent the day in TC yesterday at my nieces graduation party.It was very nice to get my mind off bf for the day but also alarming as my family just doesnt get it.Even my auntie who just retired last year as an ICU head nurse was pretty much ignorant about the subject.”you’re worried about getting a flu from birds?”I tried to explain a bit but couldn’t see taking over the day with it.

janetn – at 18:09

Talked to a nurse with Visiting Nurses today. They are the agency that handles the yearly flu vaccine clinics. They will be doing the H5N1 vaccines too [the ones that dont exist]. Their agency is not contracted to do anything else to her knowledge. Its is still a mystery who is going to be staffing the surge sites?

The nurse I spoke with said that HCW will recive the vaccine first when it becomes available. She has been in contact with the state. She has no idea how they are going to distribute the vaccine with virtualy no staff. Seems lots of plans are being made with no thought on where the manpower to do all these things is coming from - the Nurse fairy apparently

DebPat 18:33

I was flipping tv channels, and on our public access channel there was a half hour show on the bird flu. I am glad they are talking about it, but I do wish they would get their facts straight. The doctor on it said NO human to human infections. They are only testing birds, which when found dead are not to be picked up by the health dept. The pandemic won’t occur until 3 months after the start of it- where did they get that info from? They did order an extra 100 cots- making the grand total 200. The health dept is deciding where to hand out tamiflu (for all 40k of the people, where does all that come from?) The reason they ordered the extra hundred cots is for an undisclosed location(refused to tell me where when I spoke to him a couple of months ago), because there will be so many people too sick to stay home, but not bad enough to be hospitalized, and I quote “those people that need care for two, three or four days”. I guess they are planning on the condensed version of the bird flu to arrive here. They are sending home a brochure with all school kids, I can’t wait to see what is in it.

Northstar – at 20:31

It’s a little late to register, but Oakland County is doing a program to prepare businesses for pandemic flu on Thursday, 5/25/06. Here’s the link:

http://tinyurl.com/kn5ac

22 May 2006

Lutosh – at 11:36

I’ve been writing to the county to find out what their plan was and here is the only response I received so far.

Dear Ms. Wagner, My name is Amy Latham and I am the Emergency Preparedness Coordinator and Epidemiologist for the Calhoun County Public Health Department (CCPHD). Thank you for your email. I hope to summarize the activities taking place in our agency surrounding the possibility of avian and/or pandemic influenza in this email, but feel free to contact me if you have further questions.

The Michigan Departments of Agriculture and Natural Resources are the lead agencies for avian influenza planning in Michigan (see: http://www.michigan.gov/avianinfluenza). We take our direction from these departments for avian flu-related issues such as reporting bird die-offs. I have attached our fact sheet on avian influenza and the State of Michigan’s brochure which contain more information.

Our primary concern with avian influenza is that it may change to a form that is highly infectious for humans and can spread easily from person to person, thus becoming a pandemic influenza strain. CCPHD takes a lead role in pandemic influenza planning in Calhoun County and collaborates with response partners on a regular and frequent basis. This collaboration includes exercising various components of the community’s response plan. I have attached a summary of CCPHD’s responsibilities related to pandemic influenza preparedness and response here. We maintain a Crisis and Risk Communications Plan that addresses how we will communicate with the public and with partners (such as physicians).

We do not have any public meetings scheduled as of today. However, the Health Officer (Dottie-Kay Bowersox), Environmental Health staff, and myself have been giving talks on the topic to various groups. Our overall approach is to work through stakeholder groups (such as schools, day cares, businesses, etc.) to provide preparedness information. If a case of avian influenza is identified in the U.S. or if the virus changes to a form that is highly infectious for humans and spread easily from person to person, then we will begin communicating with the public more aggressively.

A good source for additional information is http://www.pandemicflu.gov.

If you would like to talk about this issue in more detail, please contact me.

Sincerely, Amy Latham

30 May 2006

malachi – at 09:00

DebP…..Due to our close proximity,I wonder if our health dept. are working in tandem….Here in MT.P they also ordered 100 cots,and seem to be focused on the vaccine and antiviral distrubution sites….Do any states actually have their antivirals in hand?They talk as if they have it already.I hope we aren’t all in for a big cya when tshtf.I pray the focus will change to individual preparedness soon because it doesn’t seem to be a priority now…….

After many calls to my school district super,telling him we need to plan and get ready to keep our kids up to date with schooling it hit me like a ton of bricks….Hey I am a sunday school teacher and I needed to do the same for my students.Got packets with sunday school materials around for 15 families from my church and community.I am also going to print out Wills guide to place in each packet.Can I get some ideas from anyone tho?Should I give these out now to be held by the families or wait till it seems like my last week at church?

Retired ParamedicMIat 20:28

the state bought 36,000 doses of tamiflu about six months ago. Per the states response plan, it is stored in a secret location and is to be distributed to designated vacination centers via armed escort by the MSP under the direction of Captain Kriste Etue, Commander of the Emergency management and Homeland security Division.

crfullmoon – at 21:18

…”if the virus changes to a form that is highly infectious for humans and spread easily from person to person, then we will begin communicating with the public more aggressively.”

…When learning curves and adjustment reactions, and the supply chains will be such that- they will have run out of time…

Carry on! (maybe those folks will only *need* care for two or three or four days alright…what’s their mass casuality management plan?)

Retired ParamedicMIat 22:31

as near as I can tell from a quick check of the Michigan pandemic plan, The Mass casualty management plan is……

“Up to local authorities”.

Sleep tight, you’re on your own.

malachi – at 22:36

Hmmmm….Maybe a quick trip to Meijer is in order….

;)

Dragonlady – at 23:04

First time poster, long time lurker.

The Oprah show has got at least one more person prepping in our state. I work as a cashier at Meijer and have only had one person admit to prepping for BF and that was right after Oprah todday (and I cash out about 600 grocery orders a week). The lady was concerned for her grandchildren and was working on a 2 month stock (she still needed a lot, if her order was any indication, but she’s started). I refered her to this site, I hope she comes and takes a quick (or preferably long) look. Personally, I’m at 6 months and working toward 9.

Just had to share that one ray of hope, and I’m back to lurking.

31 May 2006

malachi – at 09:10

Dragonlady….welcome aboard :) Is Meijer making any plans? Does your Meijer keep hand wipes for the carts available?In MtP they must think of me as the wipes dragonlady.Good job being so stocked up,My family of 6 keeps it pretty hard to keep stuff in the house,but I did get a huge batch(20 cases) of someones Y2K 15 year #10 cans off ebay and I have alot of home canning.My kids will definately be jonesing for all the good stuff they scam out of our preps.

Bon – at 16:35

My husband took the last weekend to travel to MN to visit step-daughter and family. We took the northern route over and the UP is so beautiful and isolated. I almost wanted to stay to avoid any exposure to BF.

My step-daughter hasn’t prepped at all and was glad to hear that I has a stocked pantry so they will move in (with 3 growing boys). Guess I need to stock some more.

02 June 2006

malachi – at 08:34

Posted in thread titled…Causing influencers to promote provisioning………Reported reply from State level epidemiologist…As retired Paramedic says…Sleep tight ,Your on your own………

Retired ParamedicMIat 20:03

I am fully aware of the DNR and the state guidelines on reporting dead birds, however…. a situation has arisen that is outside the protocalls. I do landscapeing. I mow alot of lawns, and I’m seeing three to five dead robins every day. so is my partner. so that’s almost ten dead birds a day, all over the county. Not sure of the significance, but found it odd enough to report.

spla – at 21:54

Hello Michigan prepers. I have been doing the p thing for a long time. I have got thur to some people but took some time. The thing that scares me I WORK FOR THE SCHOOLS AND NOT A WORD YET.

03 June 2006

Dragonlady – at 13:25

Malachi - none of the local Meijer stores has the handwipes. Mine did when it first opened in 2000, but it was never used according to the greeter supervisor and eliminated.

A word on the stocking situation, I noticed this week that we were a little low in a lot of the departments, so I started asking those department heads who were in the breakroom while I was on lunch. Meijer gets at least 1 truck in every day except holidays (including Memorial day). We are currently behind 1 delivery. Every truck that has come in since has more merchandise on it, but we are still low on a number of things in many different departments. So don’t expect a full stocked store for a week or so after a holiday.

Also, Meijer, like Wallyworld, does inventory by computer. A list of whatever is sold in the previous 24 hours is sent by computer every afternoon to the local warehouse to be sent to us on the next day’s truck. The stockers don’t always get the trailers completely empty as soon as it comes in, so if the shelf is bare, ask. Most of the guys know what has been stocked and what is still sitting in the trailer (yes, there is normally a trailer at least half full of stock sitting on the loading dock). The overnight stockers empty the trailer, but the trailer at our store gets there about 10 am and is picked through by the day staff to fill holes on the shelves or customer requests. The only exceptions are seasonal stuff, like Christmas trees, fans or bar-b-ques.

As far as bird flu, I’m the only one in my store with a clue. I’m a lowly cashier and am supposed to direct any and all queries to my direct supervisor and he said “don’t worry, it only affects birds.” As soon as TSHTF I’m quitting and SIPing with my parents at their Amish built farmhouse (we’ve added electricity and water to half of it already, the Amish lived with a powerless Artesian well, and so could we).

Lutosh – at 13:53

Retired ParamedicMI−20:03 (I mow alot of lawns, and I’m seeing three to five dead robins every day. so is my partner. so that’s almost ten dead birds a day, all over the county. Not sure of the significance, but found it odd enough to report). I have also been finding dead birds, so far three in my yard and in speaking with my neighbor discovered he has found over a dozen in his yard. I have reported the birds I have found and also wrote to them about my neighbor. I have not found dead robins but two were black birds and one was grey but it was not a dove or a pigeon. It is possible we could have a bad case of WNV this year. Here is a map of reports-so far none in Michigan. http://westnilemaps.usgs.gov/us_bird.html

Retired ParamedicMIat 17:02

That was my hope, since the mosquitoes are very bad now. But I haven’t seen any reported as yet myself.

DebPat 19:58

If you ever see them in Midland county, they are supposed to be reported to misquito(forgive my spelling)department. Apperantly they are also testing for bird flu, when it gets here.

05 June 2006

Lutosh – at 11:25

What’s the buzz on bug bites, stings? Experts offer tips on what to do By Kim Mitchell Staff Writer

The dry climate going back into 2005 may not have been the best for farmers, but the lack of rain has made a difference in mosquito bites.

“We’re having a very mild year so far,” said Cy Lesser, mosquito control specialist for the state Department of Agriculture. “We’re about as good at predicting mosquitoes as meteorologists are the weather. We can only give a forecast four to five days out. It all depends on the weather.”

 All the Eastern Shore needs is a big rainfall or a tropical storm and mosquitoes will start swarming. 

“Nothing eminently is going to occur, but at some point, we’ll have a large number to deal with,” Lesser said.

Until then, he said mosquitoes are in their typical locations and are more abundant near large wetlands and marshy areas, such as is found in south Dorchester County and western Somerset County.

The weather, however, doesn’t affect the Asian tiger mosquito that lurks in urban back yards.

“This foreign species throws all the rules out,” Lesser said. “It doesn’t need marshy areas. It doesn’t need roadside ditches.”

Just a small amount of water, a quarter of an inch, is enough for the Asian tiger mosquito to breed.

Lesser has found dozens of larvae in bottle caps.

Any amount of standing water is an invitation for a mosquito breeding ground, Lesser said.

“It’s the No. 1 mosquito problem in developed areas,” he said. “Everyone has them in their yards. They never leave.”

Because these biting nuisances are in everyone’s back yards, they’re also difficult to control.

With only a small amount of water needed, Lesser suggests eliminating their methods for breeding.

“Get involved,” he said. “Get rid of their habitats.”

Birdbaths, kid’s toys, lawn furniture, saucers of flower pots: If there is standing water, there can be mosquitoes, he said.

This breed of mosquito is aggressive and feeds mainly during the day.

Mosquitoes are sophisticated, Lesser said. Most people don’t feel it when its feeding, only the itching sensation after the bite.

Mosquitoes are attracted to carbon dioxide.

“Mosquitoes are able to detect a stream and follow it several yards until it finds its source,” he said.

Flies with a bite There’s something obvious about no-see-ums.

They’re tiny, but there’s no mistaking that they’re flying about.

“They’re extremely small, but they have a painful bite,” Lesser said. “It’s like a hot pin prick. You know when no-see-ums bite.”

People often have a worse reaction to the fly’s protein, which is injected into the skin during feeding.

These annoying little pests breed in the mud and muck of intertidal areas. The greater difference between high and low tide gives more habitat for the larvae.

These flies are weak, though. With winds blowing more than five miles an hour, it can limit no-see-ums’ activity. They thrive in low wind, high humidity with higher temperatures.

Green-headed flies are aggressive and annoying. Their bites exceed the “hot pin pricks” of no-see-ums, Lesser said.

The flies live in mostly marshy areas, but are so large that they can fly in winds that others can’t and travel greater distances.

These flies hunt visually with their large eyes.

Their season’s just starting, but Lesser said that homeowners kept from doing yard work by the flies can do something about it.

There are green-headed box traps that collect the flies in large numbers.

“They’re very effective in controlling local populations and can make a big difference,” Lesser said.

With a sting Most people try to avoid them, but where there are flowers, there are bees.

They make nests in back yards, even on homes and in walls.

And they land people in the emergency room every day, said Dr. Bill Todd, medical director for the emergency department at Peninsula Regional Medical Center.

While one or two people head to the emergency department a day, Todd said the majority are suffering from an allergic reaction.

Many show up without complications, just pain, and localized swelling and itching. But a small subset of people, about 5 percent, are allergic to the venom and can suffer severe reactions that in some cases lead to the intensive care unit, Todd said.

Swelling is normal for the average person, said Dean Burroughs, a certified master beekeeper.

Burroughs said there are lots of misconceptions about bees, and the problems they bring have simple solutions.

Only a small fraction of stings lead to death, he said, and most people overreact when stung. Most people also overreact when they encounter a stinging insect.

“They will not bother people unless people bother them,” Todd said.

If a sting occurs, Burroughs said to treat the sting with ice, alcohol and baking soda to lessen the venom’s effects. An old-time remedy includes combining water and tobacco, then applying it on the sting.

If a stinger is in the skin, gently scrape until it is removed. Most stinging insects do not leave stingers.

Most stinging insects will not swarm, Todd said, but when yellow jackets and hornets sting, they emit a pheromone that attracts others. Burroughs said the insects will not follow humans very far.

For those who are allergic to bee stings, Todd said to avoid interaction at all times and carry an EpiPen to inject if stung.

Because stinging insects like to build their nests in a variety of locations, avoiding them is difficult. For people allergic to a stinging insect, Todd suggests avoiding all types because their venom is very similar; removing a nest is a necessary precaution.

For nest removal, Burroughs suggests spraying a chemical directly on the nest at night, when the insects are least active, and for the most part, in the nest. Remove the nest the next morning.

Because hornets hatch every day or so, Burroughs suggests disposing of a hornet nest in a plastic bag to ensure none will return.

Burroughs advises people to get rid of nests only if they are a nuisance.

“They’re not going to attack you,” he said. “If you can leave them, do so for pollination. One-third of all the food we eat needs to be pollinated. We need them.”

Ticktock They’re in back yards, at the park, in the woods. Ticks are pretty much everywhere.

The smaller the tick, the more problems they may bring, said Dr. James Burns of the Main Street Medical Center.

The two smaller breeds of ticks can carry Lyme disease and Rocky Mountain spotted fever.

“The dog ticks can get to be the size of a marble,” Burns said. “But they won’t hurt you.”

It’s better to deal with prevention than the aftermath of tick bites, he said. Repellents work, he said, and it may be a good idea to spray areas, including back yards.

Humans aren’t the only victims of ticks, so Burns also suggests protecting the furry members of the family.

After visiting an exposed area, Burns said checking for attached ticks is a necessity. Belt lines tend to be a common area for ticks as well as in the torso and back.

“Just take a look,” he said.

Tick victims head to the doctor for one of two reasons, Burns said. They manipulated the tick but couldn’t remove the head or are worried about the spread of disease.

In Burns’ experience, the best way to get rid of a tick is not medical. He said to light a match, blow it out and place the hot end on the body of the tick. It will open its mouth, spread its legs and give the person enough time to get it off the skin.

Tweezers are also a good way to remove a tick, but Burns warns that the area needs to be inspected to make sure the tick is completely removed. He said removing a tick is more difficult when it is dead.

Many people seek treatment and testing for disease immediately after a bite.

“There’ll be a reaction from the bite, but it’s not necessarily an illness,” he said.

Burns said it takes a few weeks before testing for Lyme disease is effective, but people often forget about Rocky Mountain spotted fever.

If a rash develops with flu-like symptoms and a headache a week to 10 days after a tick bite, the person is likely to have the fever.

The Eastern Shore is an endemic area for Lyme disease.

“It’s known to be in this area with a high frequency,” Burns said.

Dealing with summer bugs Areas that combine low wind, high humidity and high temperatures favors on the side of insect activity, Lesser said.

He advises people to avoid stinging and biting insects if possible, but if not, there are certain precautions that may be taken.

Wearing proper clothing — including light-colored long pants and sleeves, hats and socks and shoes will make a difference. Lesser recommends treating exposed skin with an Environmental Protection Agency-regulated repellent.

“There are a lot that haven’t gone through registration,” he said. “If they’re not fully tested, it’s probably not wise to use.”

The most effective products are those that contain deet. Newer formulas that use less deet, at 30 percent, are more than adequate, Lesser said.

For those who don’t like the oily feel and odor of repellents can opt for other products that are fairly effective in preventing bites.

Repel uses oil of eucalyptus that has a light, fresh odor and is not greasy. Picaridin is another option that doesn’t smell or have other deet side effects.

For long-term effectiveness, Lesser suggests using deet products. With other options, he said they last up to two hours, but may need reapplication due to perspiration.

Reach Kim Mitchell at 410–845–4634 or kmitchell@salisbury.gannett.com.

Originally published June 5, 2006

What’s the buzz on bug bites, stings?

23 June 2006

malachi – at 00:08

Has anyone seen the emergency preparedness booklets made by the state of MI dept of community health.Distrubuted thru county health depts?They let me pick up a box of 500 to pass out in my community.It started out by saying how in MI we know about preparing for blizzards and such,but we also needed to prepare for biological and bioterrorism threats.Then it had a page with info on anthrax,botulism,small pox,gasses,dirty bomb,pandemic influenza.Panflu page starts with description-A new flu virus that spreads among people across the world.In the past influenza pandemics have led to high levels of illness,death,social disruption and economic loss..Goes on to describe symptoms…Last section…Immediate action/treatment…avoid sick people,stay home from work or school if sick,cover nose and mouth with tissue to sneeze or cough and throw it out,wash hands,These last 2 kinda had me wondering what they were thinking….Seek medical care early,Now this last one is directly quoted from the booklet”Antiviral drugs are available for people at high risk of complications”After this they have a section called creating a family emergency plan..Says to keep some essentials but gives no amounts or time frame that would be needed.Tells people to learn more and learn terms such as isolation,quarentine,sip,and evacuation.Tells people to talk to employers,schools and daycares about their plan.Tells them to watch the news during emergencys.Next section titled Health and emergency info is something I hadnt seen before.It give people some info on what to do if mass immunizations were to happen.Says listen to news to find out who should go where and when.If you are directed to go you will need to bring important medical info with you also for each family member,picture ID,medical records age and weight of kids…..Last pages are medical record pages for 7 people…

I passed out 50 of them to parents of kids who came to our vacation bible school in my community,But I pointed out to each that the statement about antivirals was false or at least in my opinion overly optimistic.

EOD – at 00:37

Just curious if any want to share? Are we all scattered over the state or are some of us closer to each other? I live just outside of Grand Rapids, a town called Jenison, what about everyone else?

malachi – at 00:41

Mt.Pleasant address but I claim the small community of Rosebush…My dad lives in GR and I have spent quite a bit of time there.Great town..or should I say Grand.

laura in pa – at 01:39

bumping for bill

DebPat 06:30

Malachi, those pamplets were supposed to be given to every student in our school system(never happened though). I am in Midland.

Preparing to Prepare – at 08:16

I am in Livonia. Our city web pages currently have no information regarding AI, so I sent the following letter on June 14th. Didn’t receive a reply and sent a follow up on the 21st, which was acknowledged later that same day. Here is my letter and the reply.

Mr. Peter Kunst, et al., I am interested in obtaining information in regards to Livonia’s preparation for a possible Avian Influenza pandemic. I was just browsing the city web pages and could find nothing on the subject. I have been following news reports with some regularity and have found that most government officials have indicated that planning and safety is up to the individual states and municipalities. Basically, it’s a “You’re on your own” message from what I am gathering.

I have visited the pandemicflu.gov web pages, as well as the Department of Community Health pages for the State of Michigan. I have found much useful information on these pages regarding state, business, and individual family preparedness; however, I was surprised to find nothing on the City of Livonia web site. It is my understanding that individual cities have been encouraged to implement plans to help assist their own residents. Livonia has such a large populace, including many elderly who probably cannot prepare. I hate to imagine what could happen to our local citizens should this pandemic occur and blindside us. I am sure this is of concern to you, as well. Perhaps I am looking in the wrong area. Would you kindly direct me to any information available for Livonia resident specifically.


Reply came with an attachment showing an outline of the page they are going to put up after approved by committee.

Thank you for your email and for taking the time to inquire as to the City’s preparation and planning in regards to a possible Avian Influenza pandemic. Currently there is no information posted on the City of Livonia’s website regarding Avian Influenza, whether in regards to prevention or planning. In order to address some of the very issues that have been detailed within your email, the city has already established a Pandemic Planning Team. This team has been tasked with recommending preparedness initiatives for city government, as well as preparing and disseminating information out to our residents on the Avian Influenza and the possible pandemic that may follow.

The team has already begun the process, meeting its first priority, by preparing an informational page that can be accessed on the City of Livonia’s website. This web page would provide general information on the Avian Influenza to our residents in hopes that educated residents will promote better preparedness on the home front for our community. Additional objectives of this team include the continuity of government services and Public Safety Operations during a pandemic.

The informational web page should be on line shortly as it is being reviewed and formatted for the City of Livonia’s website. I have included, in an attachment, information that will be available to our residents very shortly. We will continue to update facts relative to the Avian Influenza and preparedness, as additional information becomes available.

Once again thank you for your email and hope that this provides you with some insight on the city’s preparedness initiatives. If you have any further questions please fell free to contact me at anytime.

Sincerely,

Shadd

Shadd A. Whitehead, Fire Chief

Livonia Fire & Rescue

14910 Farmington Rd

Livonia, MI 48154

Office# (734) 466–2430

Fax# (734) 466–2188

Email: swhitehead@lfdmail.com

Preparing to Prepare – at 08:23

Why is the format on the Michigan pages so wide? I have to side scroll to read all the pages, but not the others.

epid in Mich – at 09:05

FYI A 3 county region in SE Michigan is planning a pandemic tabletop exercise in July, as well as a more extensive exercise in August. Oakland county has published a pandemic brochure which is pretty well done.

Side Scroll Alert – at 09:42

Epid, do you have a link for that brochure? I thought L. Brooks Patterson was dissing everything about BF… oh, and the sidescroll is from someone putting in a long URL — please use the tinyurl service on the bottom of each page, or the moderators have to come and fix it. Northstar

Epid in Mich – at 11:46

SSA,

Sorry, I could not find an electronic copy of the brochure. You can probably call and get one. There is information at www.oakgov.com.
http://www.oakgov.com/health/initiatives/emergency_prepardness/pandemic_index.html has pandemic preparedness info.
BTW, the Oakland County Pandemic Business Symposium featured posters with L Brooks Patterson

  sneezing into a hanky.  I believe he was there, also.  It seems he is taking it seriously now.
  They are planning a second business symposium for July.
malachi – at 12:44

DebP….Hmmm…I had sent an email to my health dept. practically begging them to put those out to students well in advance of school being out.She just didnt reply for over a week and after school was out.I wonder why they didnt follow thru with giving them out?I didnt go and get any til yesterday.Also what does everyone have to say about MI declaration that antivirals are avaialable for those at high risk?

Epid in MI……Is this true that MI has antivirals for those at high risk?I know we bought 36,000 courses so do we in MI feel that only 10% of our population are at high risk or do we have plenty for everyone?

Could anyone posting links PLEASE use the directions listed below…Our thread is now almost impossible to read..

Epid in Mich – at 14:44

malachi

I have no idea how much Michigan has stockpiled. I don’t think any state can afford enough to treat everyone who gets sick, much less enough to prophylax everyone for (?)months.

IMO stockpiles are most likely going to be used for prophylaxis of HCWs, Police, Fire, Key personnel (water? electric?)etc. and maybe treatment of some cases.

Bon in MI – at 15:05

Malachi 00:08 Great news about the booklets. I live near Saginaw and I will be visiting the Sag. County health dept. today or Monday to see if I can get some to pass out. Especially to my kids who live in Fenton and Linden.

I have been following the story out of Canada concerning the dead goose and the missing information with great interest. We are just a neighborhood away. I have begun to worry about the real safety of our poultry supply.

I was also encouraged to read on another thread that Livingston County is recruiting additional nurses in preparation. Part of my family live in that county.

Keep prepping all you fellow MI folks.

03 July 2006

malachi – at 23:36

Over the weekend I put those booklets into 6–8 rest areas from mid MI to the bridge…..Hope they get picked up and put to use….

04 July 2006

Hurricane Alley RN – at 00:28

bump

bumping for bill – at 00:47

06 July 2006

Hurricane Alley RN – at 00:06

bump

10 July 2006

anonymous – at 10:01

bump

11 July 2006

CAMikeat 01:44

bump for BB.

12 July 2006

Dusty – at 06:48

Interesting article about tainted frozen fowl from China in SE MI. http://tinyurl.com/oxyma

malachi – at 10:31

yikes…..

Bon in MI – at 16:44

All I can say to the Troy raid is..that’s just great. We have to worry about the fall migration and now this too. Big YIKES>

Bon in MI – at 16:45

All I can say to the Troy raid is..that’s just great. We have to worry about the fall migration and now this too. Big YIKES>

13 July 2006

CAMike - Bump – at 01:57

bump

Retired ParamedicMIat 06:30

is it just me…..

Why did the Feds destroy the chicken without testing it first?

DebPat 06:37

Maybe because some had already been sold and shipped out, Michigan doesn’t want to be the first state with h5n1…. I think the list could go on and on.

everready – at 06:52

Don’t you just love this state?!

janetn – at 09:19

Wasnt the state. From what Ive read the Feds destroyed the chickens [evidience]. So much for Chinese food.

malachi – at 10:35

From what I understood,the state was pissed that the evidence was destroyed before it could be checked.I do love this state so I give it the benefit of the doubt and lay it on the feds.After all ,being on our own as we have been told why didnt they pass it over for us to test at MSU. I fear it is more of a North America thing,Look to Canada’s dealing of the situation on Prince Edward Island.I must admit I being a north American do not want this crap here as much as anyone but I do want the TRUTH……….

janetn – at 11:26

Malachi I want the truth too. But I have come to the conclusion that were not going to get it. The best we can hope for is boards like this that pick up some tidbits and give us a heads up before its to late. Im now a confirmed cynic

16 July 2006

bump – at 16:38

bump

Dragonlady – at 17:52

One small piece of good news, I think.

My Meijer just got in new wipe dispensers for the entrances and they went up yesterday. I haven’t seen anyone using them [but me :(], but I haven’t acted as a greeter since they went up. I’ll keep an eye on them and let y’all know.

Retired ParamedicMIat 19:17

krogers has had them for a while in my town. I don’t even give them a second thought. My first thought was…… “When did Howard Hughes move here”?

If you are so paranoid that you feel the need to wipe the handle of the shopping cart befor you touch it, Then my advice to you is to stop eating fast food. at least dont get ice in your drink.

Northstar – at 19:26

Retired ParamedicMI — I’m no germophobe, but as the parent of a toddler, I can tell you there seems to be a direct correlation between putting a little kid in a shopping cart and them coming down sick! I don’t usually bother for myself, but when I bring my little one I always wipe the handle down with the alcohol cleanser. Hey, I’ve seen people hacking into their hands and then just pushing the cart along! Eeeeew!

17 July 2006

Retired ParamedicMIat 07:01

Yes, I’ve often wondered how many pissy diapers have sat in that seat, as I put my bread there to keep it from getting curshed.

09 August 2006

anonymous – at 11:00

Keep prepping Michigan….Bump

Northstar – at 13:55

Well, since it got bumped… Aug 22 Metro Detroit hospitals are doing a dry run for bird flu… people feigning bird flu symptoms are going to show up at participating hospitals’ ERs to check the response. Sorry, no cite; just something I saw in the paper. And there has been yet again another big-business meeting about bird-flu planning recently — it was in the same little article about the hospital trial — quite a contrast to how downplayed the whole bird-flu thing has been to the public in MI. Our big “summit” received almost no press. We didn’t even get Levitt.

Retired Paramedic — That’s why the little seat flips up! LOL! I can guarantee you, pee diapers and worse! I guess it’s the oldsters hacking against the youngsters excreting in the germ battleground in the shopping cart wars… ;-D

19 September 2006

Malachi – at 00:08

Good deals at Meijer on laundry soap this week….buy one get two on the huge liquid Gain 200 oz bottle…

Hope you are doing great Michigan preppers….(DebP especially)

DebPat 06:26

Thanks, I am hanging on, just going day by day.

Malachi – at 06:33

Glad to hear it Deb………Btw…Meijer didn’t have their wipes out at either greeting stand last night…I gave them heck about it.

Retired ParamedicMIat 06:47

The Monroe county health dept. is having their annual flu vaccination on oct 25. But this year they have a new twist. they are incorporating a pandemic mass vaccination exercise along with it. the normal price for the flu shot is $23.00, it will be ten if you sign up to play along with the exercise.

Malachi – at 07:09

Thats good news about the exercise.I hope they get lots and lots of people participating so it can be an idea of a dose of things to come for them.I believe that 10 is the standard price for vaccinations IF a person does not have insurance,at least here in Isabella county.My kids were a bit behind last spring and when I caught them up that was the price,10 per shot on all vacs including pnuemovax.

janetn – at 20:08

Glad some counties are doing something. Bravo for Monroe co.

Meijers had TP on sale last week too. I picked up a few rolls. My dh has a thing about all the TP we have so I had to restrain myself. Hes fine about all the other preps just the TP seems to bother him. Must be a man thing.

20 September 2006

Malachi – at 07:42

LOL…Janetn…If he is anything like my hubby he wont want it stacked around but sure would cry when he had to use newspaper….He’ll be glad you bought it :)

Michigan Mom – at 10:40

“You know that you have enough TP when you can use it for insulation or barter” quote from michigan dad

Bridge Lifter – at 23:02

Has anyone seen a TV ad from the Michigan State Government that was all about being “prepared for anything”? It showed a family in their home with the lights going out and the chaos that follows … looking for the flashlights….and so on..

Very basic and thought provoking. It had a web site name that had the word “prepared” or “preparedness” in it but I can’t remember it and can’t find it on the mich.gov site.

I think someone is getting the ball rolling.

21 September 2006

Average Concerned Mom – at 03:13

Bridge Lifter — Don’t know why I am even checking this thread as I do not live in Michigan — but THAT TV AD WAS MY IDEA!!! (-: It was in one of my very first posts ever — about March I think — in a thread about “Large Scale Prep Encouragement”. I said people are motivated more by fear of embarrassment than by fear of something unknown….so show the lights going out during dinner and the chaos that ensue.

OK, it could have been someone else’s idea too. It’s a fine idea! (-:

Malachi – at 09:23

I dont know if it is okay for me to ask this here but I will and if the mods think it is wrong they can delete.Does anyone have any canning jars they can donate to me?I am making my new job cleaning out peoples gardens and fruit trees.I just drive around and see a bunch of tomatoes left to rot or a fruit tree still full and ask them to let me have it.I only have a few more days for tomatoes.I dont know how I will distrubute this food when it is needed butI know we will have extra and do hope I can figure that out when it is needed.If you still have tomatoes or jars or any produce that will rot away,Please let me know I am willing to drive 2 hours to pick them up and will not let it go to waste.

Michigan Mom – at 21:49

Malachi-at09:23 If you live close to Ohio, Indiana and Illinois have you thought about posting your request there? Blessings on you and your efforts.

NawtyBitsat 21:55

malachi,

Are you a UPer?

Malachi – at 22:41

Central MI….Middle of the mitten

NawtyBitsat 22:54

Shame.

Oh well.

Malachi – at 23:13

I did break down and buy more cans today so that 2 gardens I know of wont go to waste,So glad I did because when I was at wally world (like the second time I have gone in but I wanted the cheap “golden harvest cans”)A young lady started asking me questions about canning jelly.I told her a few things and suggested she buy the blue book,we got to chatting and she is prepping,When I told her I was also,she said maybe I would want her extra grapes,apples and pears!!!!I need those blessing to have the strength to keep this canning frenzy pace up so thanks Michigan Mom :)Did 6 mayonnaise jars of regular pears(before the wally world trip)18 pints of curried pears which are like a pear pickleish deal,12 quarts of pear sauce and 18 pints of RED Wine flu killer pears.Also keeping the dehydrator running and I gotta say they are my favorite thing I have dried so far.Just 8 more bushels to go on this load..So I am still looking for cans.

Malachi – at 23:21

Why Nawtybits?Do you have cans or produce?I am going up north on saturday to see my new nephew by mackinaw…Are we getting warm yet?My dad is coming thru the UP in a few days from Canada….

22 September 2006

Michigan Mom – at 14:25

Malachi-My hubby has bought many jars from Goodwill and Salvation Army for less that $2 a dozen. I too am canning my brains out here in the thumb,it got so bad that I left the pressure canner on to long and the presure got really high-scared me half to death! I took a couple of days off so I could get some rest. Still blessing you

Malachi – at 16:26

MI Mom…I do keep checking those sources and come acrossed a few here and there.I got signed up for freecycle a few days back and posted there also.keeping on keeping on with all this produce.I did take it pretty easy today as compared to the last few days. :)

24 September 2006

dragonlady313 – at 21:42

Malachi

My parents live in Clare county (just north of you) and they have peaches that my mom cannot keep up with (canning and jamming). She said you are welcome to them. Email me at dragonlady313 at hotmail.com and I will give you the address or their phone number.

Diane

Malachi – at 21:53

Cool thanks Dragonlady :)…Will Email right now…Malachi doing the happy dance!!!!!!!

25 September 2006

Michigan Mom – at 08:39

HI Malachi, My husband seems to be fasinated with fruit trees so everywhere we have lived he planted them. We used to live next door to our current residence, he planted friut trees there also. The nieghbors moved out so he raided the pear tree yesterday, came home with 8 grocery bags of pears. I immediatly thought of you, then I thought you lazy old woman take a page out of Malichi’s book and can them yourself, we will also distribute them where needed. Thanks for the inspiration!

Malachi – at 09:49

Great MI Mom!!!!!!I just planted 2 apples and 2 pears in my yard this summer,To go along with the old old apples I have now.My cousin surprised me this morning with an old dehydrator.I remember my aunt drying cherries in it when I was 8 or 9.It is handmade but big.12 trays big.Also has the tempurature settings.Beats the ronco I have been using.That will help with the jars issue although I got a few at goodwill/salvation army over the weekend.SA had a box of 18 for 5 bucks but 4 of them were blue glass with the original lids from ball.Those I cant use to can as they have rough tops but my mom was really happy that I gave them to her for her collection.(and to store dry stuff)Good luck with the pears.PS…..I really doubt you are lazy!!!!!Pears are not the easiest to can with all that peeling.

Malachi – at 10:10

EOD…Thanks for the link to the juice steamer the other day.I don’t forsee being able to get one for some time.My mom told me that my grandma used to do it this way….Wash grapes,add 1–2 cups to 1/2 gallon jars,add some amount of sugar and fill jars with boiling water.Hot bath some amount of time.Let them set for at least 2 weeks before use.I have done it this way in the past with good results.It did come out more like a concentrate but Oh the flavor!!!Nothing grape flavored is like real grape flavor.Of course I can’t find any recipe like this.They all call for mashing and straining.At this point with all the canning and drying and juicing I am doing I think I will trust grannys way as it is so much easier.I had a person comment that all the time I was spending wouldn’t it be easier to just get dole canned fruit.At this point I can’t even get a jug of milk but I can scrounge fruit and veggies for free.A great way to stock food for my family and many others if it comes to that.I just hope they love pears and tomatoes.

dragonlady313 – at 20:31

Malachi - Please check your e-mail.

EOD – at 20:53

Malachi - I used to can mine that same way, don’t remember the exact receipe but I do remember 2 cups grapes per quart. I’d say start with 1/3 cup sugar per quart & fill with water; unless your grapes are REAL sweet that should not be too much sugar and you can allways add a bit more when you go to drink it if needed.

02 October 2006

Michelle – at 15:26

Meijer has all their store brand items on sale this week Canned foods for .19! That should help a lot with prepping!

15 October 2006

Michigan Mom – at 08:30

I am canning pumpkins and wondered if anyone has any reciepes for pumpkin other than pie or bread and cookies? Pumpkin is loaded with all kinds of stuff that is good for you-just don’t tell the kids. thanks

Malachi – at 08:44

My kids love pumpkin butter…My sister makes it and for the longest time my kids would pass it up for a different flavor.Then we were out of others so they tried it.Now it is their favorite.I am taking off to church in a few but will get the recipe from her when I return.I am taking a week off from grapes till apples.I decided to wait on those since they will keep for a while yet.Got 17 1/2 gallons of grape juice 15 jelly and one batch of wine.

Michigan Mom – at 21:46

Malachi thanks in advance we will give pumpkin butter a try! I’ve done all the apples I care to do this yearand pears too!!!!!!!!!! Lots and lots :) We have canned hundreds of jars of stuff, but from what you have said we are nowhere near you and yours. The salvation army in Flint had alot of canning jars Sat. they were running $2.05 per dozen, don’t know if this is in your area but it is a good price. My hubby who retired from Delphi Oct. 1 (another pair of willing hands) picked up some 2qt. brand new with the lids and rings-itmade me think of you. Anyway if you are close it might be worth a call to see if they are still in stock, Don’t forget to talk to the manager you might get a better price, we get the old peoples discount. Blessings on all your hard work, Mi Mom

Malachi – at 22:16

Well I wish I would have done more of the grape jelly,The kids are putting quite a dent in that already.My sister has not called me back yet with her good pumpkin butter recipe but I’m sure I will talk to her tomorrow as it is our tradition to call each other on Mondays after our kids are on the bus.Flint is a bit of a drive for me,I am in Mt.P.but I continue to get a few here and there at my S.A. and goodwill.Plus I hit a church sale and got 40 pints for 10 cents apiece.When I start in with apples I plan to get them pressed into cider for freezing and would start canning that as soon as we were in a sip situation.Then I will do some apple marmalade and a bit of pie filling.I have already done 40 quarts of sauce so I am finished with that also(thank goodness ,my foley food mill is small and I was sick of cranking that thing)My mom and I are thinking of going in on a new preasure canner so I am feeling giddy about that ! I got a new (used) shelf to store my canned goods and it is so pretty all lined up there.It will kill me to cover it but gotta keep the light off so I guess I will just have to peek at it alot.I think of you and your hubby whom I think of as MI Dad appleseed and wonder why anyone would ever plant any tree but a fruit tree.Blessings on you 2………….

Michigan Mom – at 22:37

Malachi you can still turn that grape juice into jelly! It might be a fun thing for sip. DadMI allpeseed-he will get a kick out of that.

Michigan Mom – at 22:40

Malachi you can still turn that grape juice into jelly! It might be a fun thing for sip? MI Dad appleseed-he will get a kick out of that.

19 October 2006

Malachi – at 10:54

Sorry for the delay MI Mom….Saw on another thread how you had finished canning,trying to prepare for a craft show this weekend,so I can have some prep cash and just slip out of wikie mode for a few days.I did an inventory of my canned goods and thought I would share since I admit I am pretty proud of myself ;)

78 quarts of tomatoes

65 pints of salsa

12 pints of hot corn salsa

118 quarts pears

24 pints red wine pears

12 pints curried pears

8 pints pear butter

12 pints pear sauce

6 quarts pear sauce

24 quarts peaches

6 pints peach jam

16 1/2 gallons grape juice

10 pints grape jelly

8 pints orange marmalade

45 quarts applesauce (still will do apple pie filling,apple marmalade,cider)

10 quarts asparagus

6 pints green beans

60 pints assorted meats and fish

30 pints assorted bean soups and chili

Here is the pumpkin butter recipe….makes 6–1/2 pint jars

31/2 cups pumpkin ( solid pack from store or home canned,I prefer the storebought cause once I almost cut my finger off trying to peel pumpkin,maybe MI Mom could give us all some tips on making that chore easier)

1 1/2 teaspoon cinnamon

1/2 teaspoon nutmeg

1/4 teaspoon ginger

4 cups white sugar

1 1/2 cups brown sugar

1/2 tablespoon unsalted butter

1 3oz. pouch liquid pectin

in suace pan(without heat) combine pumpkin,cinnamon,nutmeg and ginger,stir well.

stir in both sugars,add butter…..

Start the heat on low and increase to med. stirring constanly till sugar is dissolved

Icrease heat to med-high then to high to bring mixture to a rolling boil,stirring constantly….

add pectin and bring back to rolling boil for 1 more minute stirring constantly

Remove from heat ,skim foam and pack into hot sterilized jars

process in hot bath for 15 min…..

Take care all and continue to prep,as so many aren’t.Together we can make a difference.

ChuckEat 11:10

Just thought I would post to say hey to the other MI preppers. I’m one myself. Not fully preped but getting close. Currently preped with lots of knowledge, alot of which I have gained from the great folks here on the WIKI! My food stocks should be rounded out by the end of November.

Northstar – at 11:10

Pumpkin peeling tip: roast the pumpkin first. I slice the pumkin into “boats” and roast until tender. This also carmelizes out the natural sugars. Sounds good already doesn’t it? Then just spoon the pulp off the peel, no problem. Pumpkin pies from scratch are unbelievable; the best pie pumpkin IMO is the Buckskin if you can get one. (Light orangy tan, looks like Cinderella’s coach.) That they are just used as porch decorations is just about tragic to someone like me!

anon this one – at 11:21

Thanks northstar…..Great tip to save against the bloodbath I had that one time.Scared my young kids to death that day.We are considering doing a pumpkin wine and I am hesitant to do it cause the pumpkin has to be peeled raw.I am hoping my idea of doing it in very small chunks will work.Do you think that is the best way to peel it raw?

Malachi – at 11:24

Opps that was me and so I guess you will all know it was me who got the free juice!!!!!!!!

ChuckEat 11:32

Malachi

Have you tried using a potato peeler? I havent, but I know it works on cucumbers and that skin is almost as thick as a pumpkins.

Malachi – at 11:39

No but I am gonna try that,anything to keep both sharp knife and pumpkin out of my hands ;)And welcome aboard!!!Do you mind saying what part of MI you are from?Letting us know if there is any activity in that area towards prepping?I am in Central MI and there doesn’t seem to be much action here besides everyone refering to the health dept will tell them what to do.Health dept is planning the wheres of vaccine distrubution and antiviral they don’t have.Beyond that I guess they are thinking hope is a plan.

ChuckEat 11:53

hailing from metro detroit some decent planning going on in oakland county. and some not so decent planning going on in wayne county. Over all though the planning is a far cry from what it needs to be. I have contacted many local city govt’s and gotten the standard “were going to do what ever the county/sate/feds tell us to do”. I find it amazing that the locals refer to the state or federal plans and the federal and state plans say that it’s up to the local gov’ts to make their own plan. sad…. so onward we push to prep and educate the masses as to what may be in store for us.

Malachi – at 12:09

I agree totally about locals refering to state and fed when it has been pretty clear from them that locals must have their own plan.Sad and scarey.Good luck to you ChuckE,prep on and push on.

Northstar – at 12:58

Oh, for God’s sake NO don’t peel a lot of little peices! The first time we did a pumpkin from scratch my husband misunderstood my directions and chunked the punkin and we took *hours* peeling the little chunks. I was so mad! What I would do is take a big sharp knife and just make long vertical peels, like taking the outside off a pineapple. Does this make sense?

Malachi – at 13:10
 I almost have it ;)northstar.Would you peel the”boats”cut out raw or leave it whole and peel?like one would with the pineapple.
Michigan Mom – at 16:54

Malachi Thanks for the pumpkin butter recipe I will try it out real soon- saved some pumpkin for it (anything in a1/2 pt. jar is’nt really canning to me, it’s just plain fun). Steam the pumpkin for 20–30 min. and the skin will come off easily!

Michigan Mom – at 17:00

Sorry I didn’t finish what I was saying, Gut the pumpkin if it is small I just steam it whole if it is large I will cut it in 1/2. I guess it would depend on the size of your steamer. I have the large steamer juicer from Lemans and it works great for steamimg also for apple sauce and grape juice as well. Because of the way it collects juice I have to add some back in when making apple sauce. Another fab feature is that it also distills water.

Northstar – at 17:24

Malachi, I would leave it whole to peel — it would be more stable to handle. I’ve seen Martha doing the vertical peel thing to a whole grapefruit, if that makes a better visual image.

Michigan Mom – at 22:22

Malachi- Goodness girl you sure have been busy by my calculator you have canned 550! What a blessing you are! I spent the day canning pears with a friend I even threatened to send the rest to you if she gets any more pears, but I see by your count you really don’t need them. Mi Dad wants to do a count also (I just have to remember where they all are). I imagine you are also running out of places to stash canned goods. We packed the china away so we could use the cabinet for storage. Some of my wonderful friends have offered to take them home and store them for me- sounds fishy. Anyway you have done well and I’m sure carma is stacking up in your favor, blessings to you and yours,ann

Michigan Mom – at 22:23

Malachi- Goodness girl you sure have been busy by my calculator you have canned 550! What a blessing you are! I spent the day canning pears with a friend I even threatened to send the rest to you if she gets any more pears, but I see by your count you really don’t need them. Mi Dad wants to do a count also (I just have to remember where they all are). I imagine you are also running out of places to stash canned goods. We packed the china away so we could use the cabinet for storage. Some of my wonderful friends have offered to take them home and store them for me- sounds fishy. Anyway you have done well and I’m sure carma is stacking up in your favor, blessings to you and yours,ann

20 October 2006

Malachi – at 06:58

No!!!!I can’t look at another pear for quite a while,Even tho I finished canning pears over a week ago I just finished drying pears a few days ago.I’m peared out!I have a built in china cabinet that has a very big cabinet below it and I have canned goods in there,In my kitchen I have these very high cupboards that I also have packed full,Then there is my new stand full and piled on top of it also.Space is definately becoming an issue.I placed an add on freecycle for a dehumidifier,I hope I get one cause we are steamy around here from all this canning.Ann is my twin sisters name and my daughters middle name.Have a wonderful day..Mary :)

28 October 2006

Maid in Michigan – at 22:38

I live in the middle of the thumb of mi. I own my own Foster Care Home and also work for a Health Care agency. I teach and assist any other homes who are willing to listen to me about emergency preparedness. Right now I wish I could get everybodys attention at the same time. The fact that we should take any flu seriously,also snow storms or power failure should be second nature to any one with the responsibility of others lives.I feel that the government owes the people the best and the most up to the minute information it can give us. After all, if we are old enough to vote we should be old enough to use good positive information.I am ready how about you?

Michigan Mom – at 22:57

Maid in Michigan- Welcome aboard finally!

The TPTB may owe us the most up to the minute information but you will find the information on this web site long before you hear it from TPTB.

01 November 2006

Malachi – at 10:41

In the US states plan thread monotreme pointed out that MI has the worst plan of all states and JanetN suggested we go to Lansing and shake things up a little before the elections.Is anyone else up for this?I live one hour from Lansing and would be willing to go.

EOD – at 11:41

All depends on when Malachi, would be nice to meet everyone anyways :)

Hey Maid - I’m originally from a little place called Deckerville.

Malachi – at 12:12

Well I am in for anytime.2 hours notice is what I need.JanetN and others please weight in.

deborah – at 12:22

I live in SE Michigan, close to the Ohio border. I just read Monotreme’s assessment of the MI plan, so am really busy trying to read all the info on our state’s planning. God help us in a pandemic, because it looks like the state won’t be very useful.

Bon in MI – at 16:07

Looks like we are 50th in emergence planning as well as econimic growth.

I can’t take a trip to Lansing because of work but I am up for sending some emails. But election or no election I really don’t expect much help from anybody. Maybe Walmart? Seems like the goverment and et al have left the social responsibility of actually planing for community diasters to Wally world.

janetn – at 16:09

Malachi How about next Thurs. Nov 9th. or the following Thurs. this is after the election and we wont have to compete with all the election coverage. We need a slow news cycle to get any coverage. At first I thought before the election would be good but I thought better of it, for the above reason. Im available the 9th, 10th, 15th, 16th and 17th Thursdays seem to be slow for news. Or do we want to plan for after Thanksgiving?

EOD I believe were in the same neck of the woods, Im north of GR 50 miles. Want to share a ride?

Once we set a time we need to start contacting reporters.

EOD – at 17:22

deborah where does mono have that posted?

janetn I’ll know better once a date is set. This is the busiest time of year for me at work, now through about the middle of December, so I really don’t know if the date you folks select will work for me. And every day is full & busy, so just set what date works best for everyone else and I will try to make it work. But otherwise yes, sharing rides would be great.

Michigan Mom – at 21:33

I’m not saying it’s a bad idea it’s just one I’ll have to think about. I am leaning heavily toward local planning.

Monotreme – at 21:44

EOD

My review of the Michigan plan can be found at US State Plans 2 at 22:00. This was followed by some discussion.

Malachi – at 22:28

JanetN…I am pretty open most days…Except the 9th….I can be in Lansing by 9:30 am.

janetn – at 22:59

Michigan Mom I agree that the local officials have to plan and plan well. Without leadership from the state were going to have a mess. Even school closings would be a local decision, which would leave the communities with good planning next to a community with poor planning suffering for the nieghboring counties lack of foresight. The state cannot do it all but their has to be a cohesive plan that the local governments can look to. Some areas dont have any plan, they are waiting to see what the state does. some things cannot be done on a local level. They just dont have the resources. Its important to save lives, and lessen the economic hardship that the state be on the ball. Had the state put out a mediocore plan i wouldnt be advocating going to Lansing. We have a way to go to even meet the level of an acceptable plan. Somebody [ies] just plain didnt do the job they were tasked to do. They took the easy road slapped something together and called it good. That is just unacceptable.

Malachi the 9th is off the list. Lets wait and see who else might want to join us and what days work for thm before we set a date OK with you? BTW looking forward to meeting you. We need to have our ducks in a row before we go. We need to have our facts straight, specific problems with this plan and proposed solutions. We need to get quotes from Webster , Olsterholm , and Navvaro. as to the ramifcations of a pandemic and the seriousness of the H5N1 virus. BTW does anyone know where we can get Olsterholms testimony in front of congress?

My DH will go with us I might be able to scare up a couple of more people. If each of us brings a few friends or family we might get a fairly good sized group.

EOD I remember you had some contacts in Lansing, any chance they would meet with us to discuss the problems with the state plan? Would the middle of Dec work for you?

02 November 2006

Malachi – at 07:24

JanteN…Okay,I am going to start with getting a file of quotes from the heavy hitters,I think that will be a good start for me, Maybe we need to get a list going about exactly what we want to present and such.I think I should be able to get some family and friends together to come also.btw,I also look forward to meeting you and any others who will be coming.:)

malachiw_o@yahoo dot com

Northstar – at 08:39

Has anyone else noticed an uptick in the media coverage of PF in MI? I’m in the north of Detroit ‘burbs and after months and months of me feeling like the lone loon in the wilderness preachin’ on bird flu over the sound of crickets from the mass media, suddenly I can’t open a newspaper without a BF story. Even my local little tabloid Advisor had a long article about how my little township is planning for continuity of services during pandemic flu! Smack me with a rubber chicken!

Macomb County has just come out with its pandemic flu response plan — I haven’t read it through but what I have has been interesting… it’s 90 pgs if you want to look at it.

http://tinyurl.com/y3ng5x

07 November 2006

Retired Paramedic MI – at 17:42

If you haven’t read the post on Critical infrastructure preparedness response and recovery, download the PDF file and read it. At least read from page 30 or so. Try not to think of this as a call to action for bussiness, try to think of it as if it applied to your town city or village. Sweet dreams.

08 November 2006

Retired Paramedic MI – at 06:16

bump

Northstar – at 11:10

Retired Paramedic: I’m unsure what you are referring to — a thread here or? Thanks.

Retired Paramedic MI – at 17:49

Northstar -

yes, it’s a post on the wiki with a link to a document released quietly by the gov, dated sept 06. it is an urgent plea to busnisses in what is considered by the gov to be critical infrastructure to start planning for massive, excuse me, let me use the gov own words, “Catastrophic” losses. if you read through it with the thought in mind of, this is what your city or town or in my case village should be doing to prepare, you may get very scared. I’m sure the gov is being kind in it’s estimate, and yet it is terrifying to read.

EOD – at 17:58

janetn – at 22:59 At this time I am afraid I just won’t be able to spare time untill after the 1st of the year. But, I can make a few calls over the next few weeks and see where that goes.

janetn – at 22:57

EOD Thanks the calls would be great. do you think you could get any of your contacts to meet with us??????

EOD – at 23:14

Thats what I will try to persuade them to do.

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.MichiganPlanningPrep
Page last modified on November 08, 2006, at 11:14 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Buying a Safe House

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Buying a Safe House

28 October 2006

dirt – at 13:36

Hello - I live in northern virginia. I have thought about buying a “safe” house in a rural area a few hours from the city. I would like to have my own septic tank, my own well and a wood burning fireplace/stove. I am fairly well stocked for food/water/meds but the thing that scares me is heat and being able to survive in the winter. I know people have discussed elsewhere how to survive in cold climates but personally I would just as soon have a wood burning fireplace to keep me warm. Have any of you folks considered going in with another familiy and purchasing a house together to defer some of the costs?

DennisCat 13:39

dirt – at 13:36 the most important thing in having a warm house is making sure it has lots of insulation. You also want it on the south side of the mountain. If you have enough insulation heating becomes fairly easy.

Northstar – at 14:16

dirt, I’ve considered it, but then I’d have to hope the other people died. ;-)

Actually now I’m looking at a little Amish farmhouse. Wood heat and hot water; update it? No way!

Cygnet – at 14:43

You’ll need a wood burning stove, NOT a fireplace, to keep warm. Fireplaces are extremely ineffecient — you will use several times more wood for very little heat.

A good tight stove burns very cleanly, and puts out a LOT of heat. You may be surprised at how LITTLE wood you will need and how warm the house will get. Needing to open windows in freezing weather to cool the house off is not unheard of … And wood is cheap. Just make sure you get a wood that burns cleanly — some types of pine are not appropriate for burning inside.

If buying a stove, make sure it doesn’t need electricity to work. Some have fans to help with the draft.

Ideally, the well should be shallow enough to get water out of with a hand pump or bucket. Otherwise, you’ll need a generator for the pump. Make sure the generator has sufficient wattage for the pump(s) (some setups have a booster pump above ground, too).

As far as buying a bug out house — if you can afford a second home, I’d buy one you can use as a vacation home and enjoy it on the weekends and holidays. Stock it with food and water, gas, supplies, etc. Given your location, Bird Flu is not the only threat that might cause you to need to head for the hills.

Cygnet – at 14:48

Oh, one more comment on the stove — if you’re looking at a house with a fireplace, they make stove inserts that fit in a fireplace and work well enough. I’ve seen a 1860′s era cabin retrofitted with a fireplace insert and it worked very well.

Safety Lady – at 15:05

I would like an outdoor burner. Heat and hot water. Plus you can burn all your paper trash. One pallet board to burn every day or every other day.

DennisCat 15:34

I lived in Tex before moving here. We bought an old trailer with acreage up in the mountain and used it mostly a vacation spot. However just having it was such a comfort - knowing we could just take off on a long weekend (or a “working woman’s holiday”) whenever we wanted. I think that psychologists will tell you just having an alternative choice will reduce your stress level. We never went to our vacation place often but just knowing we could any time we just wanted to get away was so comforting. Then we just move out here and it is one big vacation doing what we want- out of the city rat race.

So if you can afford it, a safe house/vacation cabin/escape is nice and I would advise it over blood pressure medicine.

Surfer – at 15:44

dirt, You are on the right track. Buy a place that has at least one fireplace and that has or can have a wood stove in a seperate room (i.e., basement). My woodstove in the basement heats the whole 3,000 ft. house. The fireplace obviously also provides heat, but I use mine primarily as a focal point during the snowy mountain winters. Look for a place that is next to a source of water (creek, river, lake, spring) - multiple sources if you can. I’ve got two wells, a year round creek right next to the house, and five springs on my property within 400′ of the house. Plus grid, solar, hydro, and generator power. Pitching in with other folks to buy your retreat is a great way to go. But don’t delay.

Edna Mode – at 18:47

Cygnet – at 14:48 Oh, one more comment on the stove — if you’re looking at a house with a fireplace, they make stove inserts that fit in a fireplace and work well enough.

We are using our fireplace insert as our primary heat source for 1800+ s.f. Not using it to heat the finished spaces in the basement. FYI, to heat this space will only take 3–4 cords here in New England.

Dirt, if you have enough disposable income to buy a second house, you should educate yourself about installing a zero (or near-zero) clearance woodstove in your current home. It’ll be a hell of a lot less expensive than buying an entire second home. However, this will only work if you have someplace to discreetly store several cords of wood. Otherwise, your wood will probably be stolen.

ShenValat 19:34

I am on the other side of the coin—have 10 vacation rental homes that will be empty when TSHTF. Just hope I can hook up folks to ‘rent’ them as bug out places. That way I can still pay the mortgages! I figure my bank will still be there when this is over—it is over 110 years old so has been around!

so dirt, if you want to talk—nsotto at shentel.net ShenVAl

kc_quiet – at 19:47

Consider the fact that you may not be able to get there. Traffic congestion there is pretty bad from what I remember. Maybe, if you have the funding, you would do well to improve the house you’re in first then expand to a second location.

Bump - Bronco Bill – at 20:21
Surfer – at 22:52

Shenval Where are your vacation rental homes? Are they self sufficient in a rural area? If so, I doubt that you will have trouble renting them. In any event, when it happens, they will be occupied - one way or another.

02 November 2006

bump – at 17:53

03 November 2006

Minneapolis Mom – at 23:51

Husband and I are trying to relocate our family out in the country. We are having a difficult time trying to find fertile soil, continuously flowing creeks/rivers, on 20–40 acres. Any ideas on how to find a natural spring or “great soil”?

04 November 2006

Clawdia – at 00:00

Since we can’t afford a second home, and I would question the wisdom of trying to evacuate to one even if we did have it, we opted instead to make our house on the outskirts of town as survivable as possible - added a wood burning stove last year. Even if we could afford a 2nd place, I’d not be able to afford to keep two places stocked, and wouldn’t feel comfortable thinking that at the last minute we could move all or many of our preps from one place to another.

We’re in SW Va, and I’m sure I feel safer in our small town here than I would in northern Va!

anonymous – at 00:49

shouldn’t buying vaccine be much cheaper and more protective than buying safe houses ?

Clawdia – at 01:15

It’s a lot easier to find a real estate sales person than it is to find someone who sells vaccine; if all things were equal, then yes, of course it’d be cheaper. More protective would depend on the vaccine and the strain from which it was made - an incorrect match could result in a vaccine that would be far worse than no vaccine at all, as well as a mistaken sense of preparedness.

anonymous – at 01:21

you can get thousands of different strains in your vaccine or enough antivirals for a whole village for the price of one house. Why is an incorrect match worse than no vaccine at all ? In a pandemic you would only take your vaccine, when the then reported match is good.

Kim – at 07:06

Minneapolis Mom at 23:51, land such as you describe will probably come at a premium price. Land that is abandoned farmland (hasn’t been plowed in a while, but has been used for farming in the past; possibly CRP land or just abandoned as farmland) is likely pretty good soil. Look too at what’s growing there now… is the vegetation sparse or luxuriant? Look at what’s growing on surrounding properties too, that’ll give you an idea of what your soil might be capable of. If you’re not a gardener, get a gardener friend to show you what GOOD dirt looks and feels like, then get down on your hands and knees to examine the dirt on any prospective property.

As for the water aspect, it’s likely that “what ya see is what ya get”. If there are any natural springs on the property they’ve likely already been either developed or destroyed. Ponds, creeks and rivers should be easy enough to spot. Get a gazzetteer and use it when looking for likely properties, it will help you get an idea of what’s around you.

A realtor may be able to help you find what you want, but don’t forget about just driving the backroads of the area you’re interested in (this is where the gazzetteer comes in really handy), and ads placed by individuals in local papers. People going thru a divorce or medical problems, or who’ve inherited Grandma’s “back 40″, often sell at way below what you’d find with a realtor.

crfullmoon – at 08:07

Good Sensible anonymous; going soliticing for probablity estimates as if experts could read the future and just refused to tell you, now, expecting the world to let you cut in line in front of VIPs and military and nurses and get yourself a vaccine… that may not even work. “On order” doesn’t mean it exists, can’t even get samples, with all the strains out there now, poor monitoring infrastructure, and greedy governments not sharing sequences immediately. (Take vaccine when the reported match sounds good? Must have much more faith in lab work and official communications continuing during a pandemic than I do.) Vaccine or antivirals are not to be had, may not work, and you, and your nation, will still have to deal with supply disruptions and civil disruptions over a pandemic year or two. Great singular focus; glitched sense of preparedness.

Minneapolis Mom – at 23:51. Kim sounds like she knows her stuff; also perhaps, a person involved with land or species conservation, agriculture, or watersheds, in the area you’re interested in would have the kind of maps or surface info a real estate person wouldn’t? That info, plus the for-sale-by-owner ads? Good luck.

MaMaat 11:14

Minneapolis Mom, another possibility is to go have coffee in a local restaurant a few times in the area you’re interested in. If you’re comfortable chatting with strangers, ask the waitress or strike up a conversation with a person sitting near you. The locals will likely know quite a bit about what is to be had in the area regarding property for sale and who to contact to find out more. While you’re there also check if they’ve got a bulletin board for local notices- there might be places listed there that might never make it to a realtor.

cabingirl – at 12:12

Surfer - 15:44 Hydro? Not much has been said regarding small microhydro. Mind sharing your experiences/knowledge on Alternative power source thread. Sounds like we share the same plat of land.

cabingirl – at 12:43

Dirt & Minneapolis Mom, Maybe another option…. I rent out my cabins to vacationers thoughout the southeast, and I am listed on several major vacation rental websites (which usually allow many photographs, location descriptions, proximity to towns, universities, hospitals, etc) and have actually received 2 inquiries in the last several days wanting to know if I have any interest in selling. In the last year I’ve probably gotten 7–8 such inquiries. So this may be worth a look. you would likely be dealing directly with owners who may or may not consider selling. Do a google search with the words “vacation rental” in the area you want, and I can almost guarantee several of these sites will show up. Once you click on the site you can browse other areas in multiple states as well. Also, all the real estate agencies in my rural area have web pages with featured listings, pics, prices. There are also FSBO websites too.

janetn – at 14:52

Minn Mom When we moved out of the city ten odd years ago we found that there are two people who are invaluable The zoning adm. and a local well driller. They know the areas. Another source of info and avail property is the local resterant. In small town USA there is a local grooup that gathers in a local greasy spoon and spends hours drinking coffee. they are the self employed the retired ect. They know about everybody and everything in the area. Youll know them as soon as you walk into said local resterant. Pull up a chair and tell them want your trying to do [find]

Good soil can is made. For a garden find a farmer who has horses or livestock they will let you have all the soil enrichment you care to shovel. You will need a pick up, pitchfork and strong back. After several loads of manure are put on your spot till it in. Result good soil. If your looking to farm a few acres you can palnt cover crops and add lime or whatever your soil is lacking. BTW your gonna need a tractor for anything bigger than a garden. If your looking for good pasture. That can be made too, your local feed mill or coaperative can get you started there.

Unless your looking to farm a few acres 20 acres is going to be way more than your gonna need. Your money may be better spent on something like tractors outbuildings solar ect. Im on 5 acres and its more than enough to homestead on. Plus Im not paying taxes on something I dont need. Im in MI and around here anything with water is twice as expensive. So Id go smaller on the acreage. Just my thoughts though. Good luck I think your making a smart decision

Surfer – at 18:21

Cabingirl,

Here is the quick and dirty on my hydro set-up. Not quite connected yet, but within one week away. Probably won’t be functional until late winter and early spring, due to the low flow volume of the creek, but it will be in place, and ready to go.

It is a small unit that is designed to be mounted under or towed behind a sailboat. The beauty is, whenever the boat is underway, that puppy produces lektricity via the underwater propeller that drives the genraitor inside that little guy. I fergit what amount of power it produces, but at least 100 watts - maybe 200, depending on how fast that sucker spins.

What I have done is this: Mounted the unit (centered) inside a 12″ diameter galv conduit via hanging straps (and one anchor strap at the bottom). The conduit is 2′ long. Piled rocks on the side and in front of the conduit, and shaped them so that they would create a venturi. That forces the water thru the conduit at the highest plausible speed. Naturally, screens are placed at both ends of the conduit to keep debris and fish from entering.

We’ll see how it works. Won’t know till spring. It’s only a supplement to my grid, diesel, and solar sources. Best part, though, when that sucker is spinning, it is providing power to my battery bank - 24/7, rain or shine. Good for bout 4 months per year. Your crick be let you have at it 24/7/365.

cabingirl – at 19:50

Thanks Surfer. I’m currently reading a really good book by Scott Davis, Microhydro. Learning a lot, and is amazing how much power can be produced and stored, even with a relatively low flow volumn of water. Thanks again for your input.

05 November 2006

Minneapolis Mom – at 00:45

Thank you all for lots of good suggestions in finding “the dream property” out in the country. Many ideas require time, and I wish I knew how much we had before a pandemic hits. Having a large family doesn’t make travelling back roads any fun. Nor looking at endless FSBOs. Right now my husband and I are trying to find other homeschooling families who are like- minded in this real estate effort. By pooling our financial resources we can increase our purchasing power or potentially be stronger bidders in land auctions/land grabs (locally here in Minnesota),and then subdivide the property. Suprisingly, there are quite a few other families who are interested in returning to the land, whether for hunting or hobby farming purposes, or those who just need more space for all the kids. Most want animals and need acerage to do it. Although BF hasn’t yet come up directly in the conversations we’ve had, my husband was surprised at how many feel “called” to emigrate from the city. Our next step is to send out a blanket email to the local homeschool co-ops and hold an informal meeting to garner interest in the endeavor.

Surfer – at 07:32

Another source of info is a USGS map of the area in which you intend to locate. It’ll have the locations of all known water activity (lakes, ponds, rivers, streams, and even some springs) plotted. Also use Google Earth. It provides a space satellite view that can be zoomed in with remarkable clarity.

prepmaniac – at 08:02

You might want to find out what rural areas they are going to use for “mass evacuation” of large cities.

Minneapolis Mom – at 21:08

prepmaniac:

say what? Whoa. There are rual areas for mass evacuations planned? Where does one find that info?

janetn – at 21:42

Minn Mom it was on another thread “of which the title escapes me” It was a seminar for the milatary if memory serves me. Made my hair stand on end when I saw it. But after some reflection I realised how unwrokable it would be esp during a pandemic. I believe that the idea originated with the threat of a terror attack that would render a city unsafe. Thats my quess anyway. Other wise its simply a ludacris plan.

Good luck with your endevor. For what its worth I think your doing the right thing BF or no.

Minneapolis Mom – at 22:34

janetn: thanks for the encouragement.

06 November 2006

prepmaniac – at 06:33

I don’t think it was for the military. It was at the University in Albany. It would give continuing ed. credits to doctors. It was for healthcare workers. Mostly in public health. That is the way I read it. It was about mass evacuation plans to rural areas. It was on another thread and had links to the site. It would be great if someone could attend and report back. I will look for the thread.

Annon-Norway – at 07:30

the Peak Oil comunities talks a lot about reloaction. Some seems to beliwe that a sharp rice in demand for resorses in combinaation with lesser supply wil be a kind of fast aproching crisis, I dont think so, it will be buisnis as usual with prices going up, and some goes down. But overalll all energy will be expensive, and then all kind of products. So no need to plan for panic. On the other hand the symptoms of energi shortness may well be dramatic. Like the european black out this weekend. It was triggerd by a ship that broke one of the supply cables.. (it was a norwegian ship…probably a kind of conspiracy from the canned fish industry agian ;-)

trying to be serious agian.. The acident happend in a cold period, and the chain effect was devastating. Only in the US have we seen this type of blackouts earlier. This has to do with low maintanece of lines, but most important, energy shortness.

In such a future scenario, relocation may be wise, a analyse will tell you that mowing into the central areas is just as wise as moving to the hills.. The central areas gives you walking/bicycling distance and good public transport, the hills,- food, and energy harvesting. A house in the central that is suited for energy production may be the perfect combination. Solar cells on roofs, exporting what you dont need. On the land, even not so fertile soil will be good, for instance hills that is diifucult to plow, but easy to grow fast growing energy forrest etc that you will sell to the local energy farmer.

Buying a house not to close to a creek, the sea and in areas with lack of rain is also wise. Global warimng will give flood, sea level rice and less/more rain with damaging potential.

Energy is essential for all long term planning. If I had the money, I would equip my vacation house with a full scale PV solar, when I was not there all the electricity produced would be exported via the grid.. That way my expenses would turn into a earinng. And my enegy needs would be good whne I used it, even in a emergency. But still to large investment for me as a student..

Urdar-Norway – at 07:31

that was me ..

crfullmoon – at 07:51

I thought so. ;-)

prepmaniac – at 07:54

crfullmoon:

What is the name of the thread with the mass evacuation seminar?

crfullmoon – at 09:23

I’m back. I’ll think about it and keep an eye open for it.

crfullmoon – at 09:26

Ok; I remebered; someone spotted it when they were looking at a mass fatality planning course or so. (4th MFP thread)

http://www.dlnets.com/suny_09Nov06.htm

Reconscout – at 09:55

Minneapolis Mom,on the question of finding good soil you need to go to the county Department of Agriculture office and buy a copy of the soil survey report for that county.These are incredibly detailed as to the soil potential for a given location-down to an acre or two.Have their pubications with you when looking.They also have a huge amount of free stuff.

anonymous – at 11:29

We are looking at buying some farmland and building a concrete home on it for added security as our getaway/2nd home. I have a question about ground water.

We will need to dig a well. What are the chances the water will be diluted with chemicals from decades of using pesticides on the crops on the land above?

Thanks.

Are we there yet – at 11:32

anonymous – at 11:29 was me

The day after tomorrow – at 12:22

Minneapolis Mom -

I know you are mostly looking for farm land, but there are some small towns that offer free city plots. However I think you have to actually live there. For those looking to get out of the city maybe a small community is an option.

Surfer – at 12:41

awty

Much depends on the depth of the well. Find a potential location. Use the tips suggested above (USGS maps, Google earth, soil samples, census stats, etc.). When you think you found the “spot” for your house, contact one of the local well drillers. Contact a coupla them. They shud know the area and can tell you what you need to know. Hint: Find a place that has a high output (GPM).

Udar You are partially right - you don’t want to locate directly next to a stream or river in a flood plain. However, if your house is located above the stream/river bed (in my case, the stream is about 50′ below the house elevation, but is within 100′ laterally of the house), you shud not have a problem.

anonymous – at 18:55

Minneapolis Mom – at 00:45 What part of the country are you looking to buy?

prepmaniac – at 20:26

crfullmoon:

Thanks. You are amazing.

07 November 2006

Minneapolis Mom – at 01:06

anonymous:

Looking to stay within 2 hours of the Minneapolis/St. Paul area in any direction.

crfullmoon – at 18:08

(prepmaniac,?! you just don’t know me well enough, because this is the internet. People who know me don’t listen to me)

cactus – at 18:20
  And, AWTY, if Surfer – at 12:41 doesn`t work, find a waterwitch. They are amazing to watch, and a good one can really find the best place.

08 November 2006

prepmaniac – at 07:58

crfullmoon:

That is their mistake.

Surfer – at 08:13

Cactus I agree. I’ve seen’em in action, and as silly as it sounds, they really do work.

Okieman – at 08:43

Are we there yet – at 11:32

Your question touches upon an area in which I have worked for a number of years.

With a few exceptions, the only farm chemical you would likely find in your groundwater would be nitrates from years of fertilizing. (Although nitrates can be naturally occuring.) If the well is shallow, in sandy soil, and in the middle of cropland this would not be surprising at all. Elevated nitrates are primarily a risk factor for babies and pregnant women. Healthy older children and adults can consume fairly high nitrate levels without negative consequences.

There are other farm chemicals (such as atrazine) that can get into groundwater but it is not common widespread occurance. But it does happen.

What you want to find is an aquifer forty feet or more deep (a rough rule of thumb) with a confining layer of clay above it. The clay layer works to keep the nasties out. That is not to say a shallower well cannot be good, but by and large the deeper the well the better.

Contact a local well driller in the area, and a local office of your state environmental protection agency and visit with them concerning the availability and quality of groundwater in the area where you are considering building. Also, visit with any neighbors in the area with wells. Once you drill the well have the water tested by a state certified lab.

Hope this helps some.

Abraxas – at 09:04

Not exactly my dream safe house, but . . . .

In April, we bought an old unused (not used in over 40 years) commerical building in our small town. Only one block from our home, and 3 blocks from our business.

  The price was amazingly cheap.  6,000 square feet for $2500.00.  It needed new wiring, plumbing, sewer and a roof.  

It’s a two story brick building, few windows on the ground floor, with 22 windows on the second floor. All but 3 of the windows on the second floor have been boarded up. It definitely looks abandoned and unused.

Of course, all of the locals know that it’s empty. Nothing of value stored here. We’ve told everyone that it’s going to be used as my DH shop when he retires.

We generated a lot of interest in the town when we first put out the story, but now it seems to be old new and of no interest to anyone. We’ve spend most weekends since April at the building repairing and painting. The doors have been wide open and everyone has come in to look and make suggestions.

We’ve repaired the roof and added security bars to all the downstairs windows and door and a new overhead door. It is almost a fortress now. To break in would be difficult.

We’ve moved in some of his equipment: table saw, drill press, grinder, etc. Besides reinforcing our story, these can be run with our generator.

Last weekend we quitely moved in two 1500 gallon water tanks. We picked up the tanks, and backed the trailer into the building and closed the overhead door. I don’t think that we attracted too much attention.

This isn’t the best safe house, but it’s something that we could afford, and it should be relative safe for a while.

Surfer – at 09:36

For those interested in digging wells, or who already have a well - check out this place (simplepump.com). I’ve got two wells, and will proabably hook one of these puppies to each well. Plan to order today, unless anyone haz a better recommendation. Check out their catalog as well. Good info.

Are we there yet – at 11:10

Okieman, Surfer and Cactus:

Many thanks for the great info!

Are we there yet – at 11:13

Another question:

If you could build any type of home you wanted on several acres, what kind of house would you build as your safe house?

crfullmoon – at 11:21

You mean like, low-maintenance, passive solar, with greenhouse, root cellar, and a defensible perimiter, in a democratic country with good human rights record, and a climate that can grow food? with a lot of storage, and a good library?… juggles coffee and checks thread title- no; this isn’t the Dear Santa thread…

Are we there yet – at 11:47

crfullmoon – at 11:21

LOL, yeah just like that.

We were thinking of building in concrete (which with forms can be made to look like limestone) in a French country chateau style. Small main building with wings on both sides going out from the front to form a U. We thought the top of the U would be closed off with a wall with two large heavy doors that would remain open until we needed to sloe them off and isolate the inner courtyard and the approach to our home. We then thought about metal storm shutters for the exterior windows.

Are we there yet – at 11:49

Whoops again:

until we needed to “close” them off and isolate the inner courtyard

crfullmoon – at 11:50

You could be my architect anytime…

Surfer – at 13:17

awty

A suggestion: If’n ya think that this is gonna hit hard and soon (see the Hong Kong thread for a quick reminder), ya might (will) be better off buying a house already in place that meets at least some of your quals, and then improve on it as time allows. Do it now. You can always relocate to a better spot later. Trying to find a location and then build “the perfect house” on a vacant parcel in the “perfect location” is probably going to take at least two years. I don’t think we have amount of time available.

Minneapolis Mom – at 14:00

Are We There Yet:

I have been waiting for a question like yours. Have you checked into straw bale construction yet? Fascinating stuff. Insulating with properly compressed straw bales (of any type)can obtain an astronomical R-value of like 60 or something. Plus, insurance companies readily insure them because they are almost fire proof. And, they are vitually sound-proof. I read a story of one woman who grew up in such a house in Oklahoma. She said they did not hear a tornado that passed over the farm until after it was all over and someone went outside to the barn.

 I am not savy at posting links yet, but I have a website bookmarked in my favorites. It is the site of Camel Back Construction.  Google searches are fun, too.  Most straw bale homes are owner-built and off the grid.  Some are built over cisterns and have elaborate rain catch systems (cool, huh?)  Most bale homes built in Europe are still standing after 200 years. A few are hooked up to enough solar power to heat the hot water in their radiant floor heating systems year-round.
preppiechick – at 14:31

crfullmoon: LOL, I think that was exactly what I asked santa for!

Seriously, I agree with surfer and that it what our plan is. Another thing to consider, is to add an addition to the basement/cellar using the reinforced styrofoam blocks, that you then pour concrete into, to make your walls. Efficient and you could build incognito!

crfullmoon – at 14:35

Oh, Santa… round house

Minneapolis Mom – at 14:56

crfullmoon: (laughing hysterically) You have a great sense of humor.

crfullmoon – at 15:03

I gots ta laugh or I’m sure ‘nough goin’ ta cry

cactus – at 15:12

crfullmoon – at 14:35 Wow ! They built a hogan. Navajos have lived in them for a long,long while. Didn`t see if the door is facing East,to greet the morning sun,tho.

crfullmoon – at 15:25

think the open section of the courtyard was South, to catch the Sun

cactus – at 15:30
  If I had my druthers, I`d have either an adobe or hay bale house. They both work extremely well in my desert climate.
farm girl – at 19:15

Minneapolis Mom - I’ve been reading your posts with great interest and would like to share a few observations that might be helpful to you. I don’t want to put you off your dream, so please don’t take offense.

I am a farm wife so I know a bit about the dream that you have. I live within 2 hours of the twin cities. The first thing I would recommend is having a big old heap of money because farmland of any quality isn’t cheap anymore. I got “lucky” and was born into a farm family, nowadays it really is almost the only way to go.

Back to the land is a wonderful thing, but you have to have certain skills or you’re wasting your time. Chances are, with only 20 or 40 acres, the only equipment that will work is very old and very small (big tractors don’t work well in small fields.) Mechanics are expensive, so you’ll want to know how to rip into an engine, repair a rear end, etc. ahead of time. Most farms need to have at least one tractor (preferably with loader, bale forks, duals, and snowblower), a plow of some sort, maybe a cultivator, a disc, planter, sprayer, combine and/or corn picker, maybe a baler, grain dryer of some sort, gravity boxes, grain bins, barns, machine sheds, possibly a silo, and so on.

For crops, you’ll need to know how to drive a tractor, plow a field, plant a straight row, and operate a combine. You would think that stuff is easy, right up until the first time that you actually try to do it. There is absolutely nothing worse than being the butt of neighborhood jokes because your rows are crooked.

For animals, you might picture an idyllic scene of mom and kids going out to milk the cow in the morning, chickens producing wonderful eggs, and cute little pink pigs. The reality is much much different. You spend your day up to your neck in crap, grease, dirt, and blood, and sometimes the cow or pig tries to kill you. I was nearly killed in August by a yearling heifer (it’s a funny story NOW.) If you want milk, you need a bull or AI (which may not be available in a pandemic), and bulls are mean as hell. Children shouldn’t work with the larger animals unless they know what they’re doing, and small children can’t even be trusted with chickens if they aren’t accustomed to them.

If you really aren’t interested in farming (producing some sort of commodity for money), but want to live a more home-grown lifestyle, please consider buying a smaller tract of land. It would be a lot cheaper, and less destructive to the agricultural segment of our state. I can’t tell you how many farms in our area are now 10 acre subdivisions that don’t grow or produce much of anything except horses, a garden, and a little bit of hay. Plus, if you or DH plan to commute to the cities everyday, it’s nothing but traffic jams and more pollution for everyone.

This is all just my opinion, and I’ll readily concede that my opinion may be wrong.

Minneapolis Mom – at 21:10

Wow, you don’t really think city slickers are hopeless haps, do you?

anonymous – at 21:23

Nope, she’s telling it pretty straight, if in fact one is trying to farm for a living and not just as a prepping supplement to regular jobs or some such. You can learn, but it’s not easy without a mentor. Farming’s considerably more complicated than people tend to think.

Farm children also have a considerably higher accident and fatality rate, I recall reading somewhere pretty recently. Looking back at all of us running around my grandfather’s farm as children, I can recall a few potentially fatal accidents we narrowly avoided, and he had almost no sizable machinery except a tractor. Speaking just for myself, I narrowly avoided getting mauled by hogs (or so it seems in retrospect), and as a younger child got attacked by a rooster, who was scratching away at my luckily hooded head before my parents chased it off.

What do you mean there’s no Starbucks here! – at 21:24

I don’t know if farm girl thinks that you, Minneapolis Mom, is a hopeless hap, but it’s fairly common for farm families to get new, and clueless neighbors. I mediated a dispute a year ago between a 3rd generation farm family with (and I quote the new neighbor) smelly moo cows, and said new neighbor. The new neighbor bought the farm, and admitted that they had smelled the cows during their pre-purchase visits. They just thought that the government would make the farmers stop polluting the air. We didn’t.

She did start by offering to help, and hoping that you wouldn’t take offense.

silversage – at 21:39

anonymous – at 21:23

“Farm children also have a considerably higher accident and fatality rate”

I worked (long time ago) for a one armed farmer. My gandmother remembers when he had his farm accident as a young man. Very dangerous work. He lived a long and good life though and could play a mean trumpet with one hand. He played at my wedding… God rest his soul. A very good man.

silversage – at 21:41

oh, and my friend’s husband ripped his thump off in a winch 3 years ago. It’s a hard life for sure.

farm girl – at 21:41

Sorry, but bitter experience with new neighbors from the cities has taught me to assume and expect nothing. If this doesn’t apply to you, please disregard. My experience so far has taught me that people from the cities move out here and get one awful surprise. Most of the time it turns out that they don’t like us, don’t like the work, don’t like giving up their suburban/urban expectations, and certainly don’t want to adjust their beliefs to our realities. If you don’t fit this picture, please move out my way. If you know what kind of tractor you want to buy, I can probably help you find a good one. Heck, if you’ve got about a million bucks, I know of a 70+ acre parcel that’s up for sale right now. It doesn’t have a source of surface water but it was plowed just last week.

Jane – at 21:45

Even if you don’t do the large animals or have all that equipment, if there’s water and space to grow a family garden, isn’t a little farm better than a city? Having good neighbors would help in either case, but, IMO, there are a lot more people to be wary of in a city, especially with regard to fires and looting.

Jane – at 21:52

My idea wasn’t for earning money on a little farm, just subsistence, I guess.

shadddup – at 21:57

Minn Mom ~

I’d take what farmgirl shared with you to heart and keep moving forward. I’m a suburbia girl and have been growing a garden here in suburbia and had chickens that I butchered in my back yard in protest of the Code Enforcement officer that slapped me with a fine because my neighbor got his boxers in a wad…

I’ve purchased a farm in the mountains…I’ve been educating myself for a long time now, and practicing with what little I could here in the suburbs…I have friends who have farms and it’s true when they say it’s ALOT of hard work. The flip side of the coin is, it’s the type of work that is more fulfilling and rewarding than any other I’ve ever done.

That kind of lifestyle isn’t for everyone…I agree with that. But for those like me, that spent alot of time soul searching, and who have come to the conclusion that there is no other life for them, need to just do it. Just because you or I or someone else hasn’t ever done it, shouldn’t stop us. As long as I’m going in *eyes wide open*, then it’s an educated decision and one that I personally don’t think I’ll regret.

Besides, the stories I have to tell already are absolutely hysterical. The ropes I’ve learned, I’ve learned by doing most times the wrong way first but the JOURNEY is something that holds much meaning and I can’t wait to finally move from the suburbs here to my new home in the mountains.

If that is the direction you feel led to go, then by all means, go for it.

Shad.

Surfer – at 22:40

Allsyousguysand gals

If you want to be a farmer, have at it. My hat is off to you. My dad is an Okie. Got many relatives still living there. They are wheat farmers.

Butt, If’n you want to get thru this thing and be self sufficient while itsahappening (figger at least two years), buy some prop’ty that has a house plopped on it and already has all or most of the fixin’s you need. Think wells, criks, springs, streams, orchards, gardens. Already in place. That’ll get uthru. You don’t have time to browse. Act now. Do it right away. This stuff is cummin down the pike fast, in my estimation.

Your dream house possibly is already available, you just haven’t found it yet. If not, you kin build it later. Butt, your goal shud be to make it thru. You can shop for or build your dream house later. Believe me, speaking as a real estate broker, there will be ample selections after the fact.

Kim – at 22:47

farm girl (and others) have made some great points. Rural life is definitely not for everyone. There are bugs, smells (many of them NOT good), and just tons of hard, physical, dangerous work (I believe that OSHA lists farming as THE most dangerous occupation there is). If you have animals (ANY farm animals, from chickens to cattle) then there are NO days off… not for bad weather, not for vacations, not for emergencies, not for anything, unless you can get someone reliable to come in and care for your stock (it’s NOT like dropping Fido or Fluffy off at the kennel). If you are strictly into growing things, be prepared for early and late freezes, floods, hailstorms, wind, and all the other things can can completely destroy all your hard work (and investment) in a very short time. Some friends of ours bought 20 rural acres looking for an idyllic lifestyle. After a few short years they are ready to move back to the big city… the bugs are eating her alive, he is sick and tired of mowing acres of grass evey weekend, and the older they get the less fun it gets. Agriculture can be very rewarding, but one must go into it with both eyes open.

cactus – at 23:06
  Amen, sista!

  Been there,did that. Miss it at times,milk fresh from the Jersey cow, fresh eggs.But, right now, I do like the freedom to go where,and when I want, and don`t have to be home intime to milk.
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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Cultural Considerations and Their Impact on Individuals and Communities

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Cultural Considerations and Their Impact on Individuals and Communities

04 November 2006

FloridaGirlat 15:38

In many countries, the population consists of many nationalities; some are more diverse than others. Cultural and Ethnic considerations should be taken into account and respected. To my knowledge, Cultural Considerations has not really had a thread devoted to this topic, yet it is an issue that may have an impact on the course of a pandemic.

Culture is loosely defined as the totality of socially transmitted behavioral patterns, expression of arts, beliefs (voiced or not), values, customs, and thought characteristics of a population of people that guide their view of the world and decision-making in their lives. These patterns may be explicit or implicit, are primarily learned and transmitted within the family, are shared by most members of the culture, and are emergent phenomena that may change in response to global phenomena. Culture is largely unconscious and has powerful influences on health and illness.

Consider the health practices of people of different heritage… or their death and burial practices. Look at what we have learned just by translating news in the Indonesian Thread. They seek cures from the village healer. They do not always seek help from a hospital or physician. Some would rather take medicinal herbs before they would take “western medicine”. For their deceased loved ones, they wash the bodies, and bury as soon as possible. There is much touching of the dead, but they (for the most part) do not allow autopsies.

Some cultural aspects of individuals or groups are actually religious in nature. Many cultural aspects are traditions that have been passed down from generation to generation.

Cultural diversity is dependant on many things and tends to be individualized when you get down to the specifics. Factors that may contribute to this would be how and where they were raised, where they reside now, the length of time the person has been outside the influence of their native culture, the age of the person, their exposure to other cultures, etc.

Even though the individual(s) should be respected for their beliefs, sometimes it is difficult to understand the why’s and what’s of someone else’s culture when it may be vastly different from our own. Understanding a culture may also allow some insight into how we can integrate individual’s beliefs into any interventions that may be needed to mitigate the impact of a pandemic.

Your insight into the following cultural norms may prove to be beneficial in implementing those interventions.

FloridaGirlat 15:40

This model is used in health care, yet it has a truth inherent for all of us who interact with other people.

PURNELL MODEL

1. All cultures share core similarities.

2. One culture is not better than another culture; they are just different.

3. Cultures change slowly over time.

4. Differences exist within, between, and among cultures.

5. Culture has a powerful influence on one’s interpretation of and responses to health care.

6. To be effective, health care must reflect the unique understanding of the values, beliefs, attitudes, and worldview of diverse populations and individual acculturation patterns.

7. Learning culture is an ongoing process that develops in a variety of ways, primarily through cultural encounters.

8. Prejudices and biases can be minimized with cultural understanding.

9. Cultural awareness improves the caregiver’s self-awareness.

10. Each individual has the right to be respected for his or her uniqueness and cultural heritage.

11. Individuals and families belong to several cultural groups.

12. If clients are coparticipants in their care and have a choice in health-related goals, plans, and interventions, their compliance and health outcomes will be improved.

13. Differences in race and culture often require adaptations to standard interventions.

14. The primary and secondary characteristics of culture determine the extent to which one varies from his/her dominant culture.

15. Caregivers need both culture-general and culture-specific information in order to provide culturally sensitive and competent care.

16. Caregivers who can assess, plan, intervene, and evaluate in a culturally competent manner will improve their care of clients.

17. All health-care professions share the metaparadigm concepts of global society, family, person, and health.

18. All health-care professions need similar information about cultural diversity.

19. Professions, organizations, and associations have their own culture, which can be analyzed using a grand theory of culture.

anon_22 – at 15:41

Interesting! I’m waiting to read the rest of it.

FloridaGirlat 15:44

Since the Amish were recently in the news…. I will start with them.

The Amish

OVERVIEW AND HERITAGE

Today’s Amish live in rural areas in more than 20 states. They have settled in states westward from Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Indiana to as far west as Montana, with a few scattered settlements in Florida and the province of Ontario, Canada. But, more than half live in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Indiana. The Old Order Amish, so-called for their strict observance of traditional ways that distinguish them from other, more progressive “plain folk,” are the largest and most notable group.

The Amish originated around 1693, when they parted ways with the Anabaptist movement that occured in Switzerland in 1525. After experiencing severe persecution and martyrdom in Europe, the Amish and related groups immigrated to North America in the 17th and 18th centuries. The Amish groups or settlements are sometimes named after their factional leaders (for example Egli and Beachy Amish); and some are called conservative Amish Mennonites; and other, New Order Amish. No Amish live in Europe today.

The Amish have transplanted and preserved a way of life that has the appearance of pre-industrial European peasantry. In the U. S., they have persisted in relative social isolation based on religious principles. Over time, the Amish have continued to adapt and change at their own pace, accepting innovations selectively. Although most Amish homes do not have electric and electronic labor-saving devices and appliances, that does not preclude their openness to using state-of-the-art medical technology necessary for health promotion.

COMMUNICATIONS

  • English is the language of school, of written and print communications, and of contact with most non-Amish outsiders.
  • At home and in the immediate Amish communities, Deitsch, or Pennsylvania German, is used.
  • School age and older Amish tend to be fluently bilingual. They readily understand spoken and written directions and answer questions presented in English, although their own terms for some symptoms and illnesses may not have exact equivalents in Deitsch and English.
  • The Amish (elders) have severely restricted their own access to print media, permitting only a few newspapers and periodicals. Most have also rejected electronic media such as radios, television, and entertainment and information applications of film and computers; Although some computers are used for business purposes.
  • The Amish are clearly not outwardly demonstrative or exuberant. Fondness and love of family members is held deeply but privately. Demut, humility, is a priority value, the effects of which may be observed in public as a modest and unassuming demeanor. Hochmut, pride or arrogance, is avoided because of frequent verbal warnings.
  • The expression of joy and suffering is not entirely subdued by dour or stoic silence.
  • The Amish present in an unpretentious, quiet manner, with modest outward dress in plain colors lacking any ornament, jewelry, or cosmetics.
  • They are unassertive and non-aggressive and avoid confrontational speech styles and public displays of emotion.
  • Amish self-perception is grounded in the present. In public, Amish avoid eye contact with non-Amish, but in one-on-one clinical contacts, clients can be expected to express openness and candor with unhesitating eye contact.
  • They are generally punctual and conscientious about being on time and keeping appointments.
  • Using first names with Amish people is appropriate because there is only a limited number of surnames. For example, it is preferable to use John or Mary during personal contacts rather than Mr. or Mrs. Miller. Within Amish communities, individuals are identified further by nicknames, residence, or a spouse’s given name.
  • Telephones (a few Amish businesses have them) and automobiles are generally owned by nearby non-Amish neighbors and used by Amish only when it is deemed essential, such as for reaching health-care facilities. Some Amish do drive, such as those who have occupations as firefighters or EMT’s.
FloridaGirlat 15:47

AMISH (continued)

FAMILY ROLES AND ORGANIZATION

  • Amish society is patriarchal, but women are accorded high status and respect. Practically speaking, husband and wife may share equally in decisions regarding the family farming business. In public, the wife may assume a retiring role, deferring to her husband, but in private they are typically partners.
  • The Amish family pattern is the three-generational family. This kinship network includes relatives consisting of the parental unit and households of married children and their offspring.
  • The highest priority for parents is childrearing, a charge given them by the church. Babies are welcomed as a gift from God.
  • Young people older than 16 years may experiment with non-Amish dress and behavior, but the expectation is that they will be baptized Amish before marriage. Unmarried children live in the parents’ home until marriage. Single adults are included in the social fabric of the community.
  • Families are the units that make up church districts. The size of church districts is measured by the number of families rather than by the number of church members.
  • Grandparents have respected status as elders; they provide valuable advice, material support, and services that include childcare to the younger generation. Family emotional and physical proximity to older adults facilitates elder care.

BIOCULTURAL ECOLOGY

The Amish are essentially a closed population, with exogamy occurring very rarely. Most are of German and Swiss descent; therefore, their physical characteristics differ, with skin variations ranging from light to olive tones. Hair and eye colors vary accordingly.

NUTRITION

  • Most Amish families grow their own produce. Typical meals include meat; potatoes or noodles or both; a cooked vegetable; bread; something pickled, such as red beets; cake or pudding; and coffee.
  • At mealtimes, all members of the household are expected to be present unless they are working away from home.
  • In general, snacks and meals tend to be high in fat and carbohydrates. Common snacks are large, home-baked cookies about 3 inches in diameter, ice cream, pretzels, and popcorn.
FloridaGirlat 15:53

AMISH (Continued)

PREGNANCY AND CHILDBEARING PRACTICES

  • Children are considered gifts from God. The average number of live births per family is seven. Birth control is viewed as interfering with God’s will and the Amish tend to avoid it. Nevertheless, some Amish women do use intrauterine devices, but this practice is uncommon.
  • Most Amish women prefer home births and choose to use Amish or non-Amish lay midwives who promote childbearing as a natural part of the life cycle. The Amish have no major taboos or requirements for birthing. Men may be present, and most husbands choose to be involved; however, they are likely not to be demonstrative in showing affection verbally or physically.
  • The laboring woman cooperates quietly, seldom audibly expressing discomfort. Women sometimes use herbal remedies to promote labor.
  • The postpartum mother resumes her family role managing, if not doing, all the housework, cooking, and child care within a few days after childbirth. Grandmothers often come to stay with the new family for several days to help with care of the infant and give support to the new mother. Older siblings are expected to help care for the younger children and to learn how to care for the newborn.
  • When hospitalized, the family may want the patient to spend the least allowable time in the hospital.

DEATH RITUALS

  • Families are expected to care for the aging and the ill in the home. However, when hospitalization is required, the Amish will wish to remain with the family member. A wake-like “sitting up” through the night is expected for the seriously ill and dying.
  • The funeral ceremony is simple and unadorned, with a plain wooden coffin. Although grief and loss are keenly felt, verbal expression may seem muted as if to indicate stoic acceptance of suffering.

SPIRITUALITY

  • Amish settlements are subdivided into church districts similar to rural parishes, with 30 to 50 families in each district. Local leaders are chosen from their own religious community and are generally untrained and unpaid. No regional or national church hierarchy exists to govern internal church affairs. To maintain harmony within a group, individuals often forgo their own wishes. In addition to Sunday services, silent prayer is always observed at the beginning of a meal, and in many families, a prayer also ends the meal.
  • When choosing among health-care options, families usually seek counsel from religious leaders, friends, and extended family, but the final decision resides with the immediate family.

HEALTH-CARE PRACTICES

  • The body is considered to be the temple of God, and human beings are stewards of their bodies. Medicine and health care should always be used with the understanding that it is God who heals. Nothing in the Amish understanding of the Bible forbids them from using preventive or curative medical services. They are highly involved in the practices of health promotion and illness prevention. Men are involved in major health-care decisions and often accompany the family to the chiropractor, physician, or hospital.
  • Health-care decision-making is influenced by three factors: (1) type of health problem, (2) accessibility of health-care services, and (3) perceived cost of the service. Grandparents are frequently consulted about treatment options.
  • Many Amish do not carry health insurance. Some have formalized mutual aid, such as the Amish Aid Society. Some communities assist families with medical expenses.
  • Those providing care should be aware that some individuals may withhold important medical information from medical professionals by neglecting to mention folk and alternative care being pursued at the same time.
  • When the Amish use professional health-care services, they want to be partners in their health care and want to retain their right to choose from all culturally sanctioned health-care options.
  • Care is expressed in culturally encoded expectations, which the Amish best describe in their dialect as abwaarde, meaning “to minister to someone by being present and serving when someone is sick in bed.”
  • Some accept medical advice regarding the need for high-technology treatments such as transplants or other high-cost interventions.
  • The client’s family seeks prayers and advice from the bishop and deacons of the church, the extended family, and friends, but the decision is generally a personal family choice. Family members may also seek care from Amish healers and other alternative care practitioners, who may suggest nutritional supplements.
  • Herbal remedies include those handed down by successive generations of mothers and daughters.
  • Health-care knowledge is passed from one generation to the next through women.
  • When providers of care must inquire about the full range of remedies being used, they need to develop a context of mutual trust and respect in order for the Amish client to be candid.
  • When catastrophic illness occurs, the Amish community responds by being present, helping with chores and relieving family members so they can be with the afflicted person in the acute care hospital.
  • The Amish are unlikely to display pain and physical discomfort. The health-care provider may need to remind Amish clients that medication is available for pain relief if they choose to accept it.
  • There are no cultural or religious rules or taboos prohibiting blood transfusions or organ transplantation and donation. Some may opt for organ transplantation after the family seeks advice from church officials, extended family, and friends, but the patient or immediate family generally makes the final decision.
  • Children with mental or physical differences are sometimes referred to as “hard learners” and are expected to go to school and be incorporated into the classes with assistance from other student “scholars” and parents. The mentally ill are generally cared for at home whenever possible.
FloridaGirlat 15:56

AMISH (Continued)

HEALTH-CARE PRACTITIONERS

  • Amish hold all health-care providers in high regard. Health is integral to their religious beliefs, and care is central to their worldview. They tend to place trust in people of authority when they fit Amish values and beliefs.
  • Amish usually refer to their own healers by name rather than by title, although some say brauch-doktor or braucher. In some communities, both men and women provide these services. Amish folk healers use a combination of treatment modalities, including physical manipulation, massage, brauche, herbs and teas, and reflexology. Most prefer professionals who discuss health-care options, giving consideration to cost, need for transportation, family influences, and scientific information.
  • Because Amish are not sophisticated in their knowledge of physiology and scientific health care, health-care professionals should bear in mind that the Amish respect authority and that they may unquestioningly follow orders.
  • Make sure that clients understand instructions and reasons why interventions are offered.
  • Because community is a big part of the Amish lifestyle, interventions that may impact the health of the community should be carefully explained to the elders of the community as well as individuals and families.
FloridaGirlat 16:01

PLEASE NOTE:

I should have added at the beginning, I will try to go thru the “list” alphabetically… If you think I have missed a culture that should be discussed, please let me know.

Also, While I did reference the internet and a book that I have, the observations listed may not reflect exactly your perception (or practice) of that culture. Please feel free to discuss what I’ve written and any differences you may find. This will help bring a better understanding to each culture.

FloridaGirlat 16:13

My observations:

I believe the Amish will fare well if the power, and communications fail since they have cultivated a way of life that would be impacted in a minimal way.

They have food and the necessities of living as well as the knowledge necessary to maintain the “supply”.

They have the support of the community, so that even families that are ill may have care.

They have knowledge of folk remedies that may or may not have any effect on the course of influenza, although for symptom relief they probably will do better than most of us if there is a general lack of medication.

They also have no real aversion to modern medications and vaccines and / or hospitalizations if it is deemed necessary and is available.

One concern would be that someone, whom the Amish elders respect, should speak to them about the use of antivirals and vaccines. They could then be better able to set up distribution points for the delivery and administration to the community.

janetn – at 16:20

I live in a community with many Amish and Mennonites. Heres a few of my observations. They are not anti medicine. Patients Ive treated were hooked up to all the bells and whistles. They have remarkedly low instances of CAD and low LDL levels despite diets high in fats????? They are remarkedly complient with drs orders. They have a great respect for the medicial community.

They tend to distrust government, God is the final authority. So for instance I dont know if they would suspend church meetings during a pandemic. Each church is different its going to depend on the particular leadership in each church They are completely autonmous. Reaching them with news is going to require local officials personally contacting the leaders. They really dont know much about currant events. Life for them is in the church community they live in. The children attend private church schools. or are home schooled. Lastly they are pacifists, this may doom them during a pandemic

FloridaGirlat 16:27

“effect” should be “affect” (sorry)

One thing to consider…. The Amish live mostly in the north. But wherever their communities are, they may be inudated with people looking to get out of the cities. This will have an unknown impact, as the Amish are generally believed to help other people in times of need.

The Amish rely on authorities for law enforcement. They do have their “rule-breakers”, but generally crime is pretty low. They may not have the means to “control” a number of people into their communities. Nor do most communities have the capibility to handel large crowds of people, except for communities who also function as a tourist destination. Even there, the Amish manage to keep their private lives private.

This aspect may prove to be an issue for them.

FloridaGirlat 19:58

janetn – at 16:20

You wrote: Lastly they are pacifists, this may doom them during a pandemic.

Your word “pacifist” is the most apt use of the word for this group of people. Their belief in GOD, and their belief that GOD is in control of destiny, and has the power of vengence is one of the guiding princples of their lives. The Amish have a saying…. “Gottes Wille” (or “God’s Will.”).

Because of their beliefs, a severe pandemic which causes migration(s) of people from the cities in search of a safe haven, may very well cause a further disruption in the lives of these people.

05 November 2006

LMWatBullRunat 14:33

I value my Mennonite, Quaker and Amish friends and neighbors.

They do have objection to the use of any force. “they that take up the sword shall perish by the sword. Vengeance is mine I shall repay, saith the Lord.” I draw the line at initiation of force only, and I take particular exception to thugs taking advantage of the gentler people around.

Florida Girl- My culture is that of the Highland Scots-Irish immigrant to the United States. I would be interested in your assessment of that particular culture, if you have one.

janetn – at 15:09

LM My thoughts exactly. My neighbors are Mennonite they are wonderful people.

Influentia2 – at 15:28

Florida Girl 16:01

How soon will it be before you post something similar for the American Indian culture? Is there a link you have you could post that I could look at?

Thanks

janetn – at 15:50

They education of Amish/Mennonites re AF and the possibility of a pandemic is probably the first thing that officials should be doing. They are definatly not in the loop as of today. There coperation and assistance during a pandemic would be valuable. they are masters of helping their neighbor, including “the English”. Hmmm think Im going to have to have some coffee with my neighbor, see what access I can gain to educate them, Im sure they will be much less frustrating to deal with than my public officials.

Bronco Bill – at 15:57

Florida Girl --- Is there a way to shorten the descriptions of what your attempting to do here (or simply link to your sources)? That way, we don’t have a bazillion threads opened about various cultures.

Please don’t think that I’m looking down on this or have any problem with what you’re doing here. I’m only thinking about the number of threads that could possibly come to fruition… :-)

FloridaGirlat 16:14

Bronco Bill – at 15:57

I don’t really have any sources per se. But how about this… How about, I figure out how to create a wiki page with the information and then link to that? Then we can use the thread for discussion. (Any help on learning would be appreciated.)

Would that work?

crfullmoon – at 16:18

(Influentia2, any particular nation/part of the planet you had in mind?)

FloridaGirlat 16:23

LMWatBullRun – at 14:33

Influentia2 – at 15:28

I was going to try to do this alphabetically. But, I do not mind going out of order…. Someone will just have to keep me straight.

I will work on those now…

Bronco Bill – at 17:37

FloridaGirl – at 16:14 --- That would be perfect. Once you have the Wiki pages set up (you can create one then use it as a template for the others), I’ll also link to them from the Forum Index.

Influentia2 – at 18:10

crfullmoon 16:18

I went ahead and googled and found a Health News link and found some information about HHS Leavitt and a meeting in May 2006 so far. If you have some links on Lakota Sioux or Cherokee that would interest me too. Reading the beginning of this thread made me wonder how much information the American Indian has regarding pandemic flu and/or prepping. Just curious.

Thank you

FloridaGirlat 18:55

Bronco Bill – at 17:37

You can use them as a template? I have finished the Main Cultural Considerations page if you want to link that page.

At the bottom, I started a list for the different cultures. AMISH is started, but not finished. Looking up info for Infuentia2 and LMWatBullRun.

Influentia2 – at 18:10

Well, I had started a few weeks ago and did research on a number of cultures, but I did not have specifically Lakota Sioux or Cherokee, although Cherokee was on my to do list. I have started doing some research, but it generally takes a few hours to put it together. Promise though… I will work on it tonight (tomorrow also, if necessary)

LMWatBullRun – at 14:33

I have already started working on your culture: Highland Scots-Irish

You should Note: I did my culture also. I was quite shocked about some of what I found. Being an American, takes you away from cultural influences (Thank Goodness)… Even though you may have very few or no generations born in America (or other country) The differences are great. Ever see “My Big, Fat, Greek Wedding”?

Influentia2 – at 19:09

Florida Girl

Appreciate whatever you can provide. A link will do if space is an issue. I am going to do some research myself after I finish my Indonesian links searching out news there.

Thanks

crfullmoon – at 19:55

http://www.mnisose.org/profiles/oglala.htm

nativetimes.com article about life on Pine Ridge

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pine_Ridge_Indian_Reservation

:-/

http://www.indiancountry.com/content.cfm?id=1096413661 September 15, 2006 “Preparing for the real terror; Flu pandemic remains a threat “ …”The outbreak revived world concern and vindicated the U.S. government’s decision to allot $250 million for state, tribal and local preparedness.

It’s to the credit of the U.S. Health and Human Services Department that it has included tribal officials in its training and to the credit of those tribes that have stepped up. American Indians and Alaska Natives are on the front line. Subsistence hunters in Alaska are providing first warning of the appearance of avian flu in the migratory flyways from Asia. They have helped provide 13,000 carcasses from 26 species for testing by the Interior and Agriculture departments, in a program now being expanded to include the lower 48 states. (So far none have shown the highly pathogenic form of H5N1, although a mild strain has turned up in Michigan swans and Maryland and Pennsylvania mallards.)

Emergency planning officers in tribes from the St. Regis Mohawk in upstate New York to the Lakota nations in the northern Plains to the Navajo in the Southwest have been preparing to cope with an outbreak. They face the added factor of rural isolation and realize they might have to rely on their own resources for much of the response. Other tribes in more densely populated regions are coordinating planning closely with state and local governments.

Casino-owning tribes could find themselves at the nodes of an epidemic, especially those with heavy international traffic. They could also bear the economic brunt of a quarantine.

By leading in the preparedness planning, tribal governments are not only tending to their own safety and the safety of their members, but vindicating their claims to sovereignty and self-determination as well. Performance is the best proof for self-government. In the American system of federalism, the governments that show they can do the job tend to gain a more respectful hearing for their claims to authority. This isn’t invariably true, of course, but states’ rights began to gain more favor in federal courts in the 1970s when state governments could show their programs were more innovative and effective than their federal counterparts. The more tribes lead in providing services like pandemic preparedness, the more respect they will command.

The St. Regis Mohawk Tribe, for instance, deserves commendation for its efforts to share its expertise with other tribes. Although its first attempt to host a conference on pandemic planning did not attract sufficient interest, it intends to try again in October or November when other tribes should be more focused on the threat.

Indian country, more than most other peoples of the world, should be sensitive to the impact of disease”…

Influentia2 – at 22:02

crfullmoon 19:55

Thanks for the links.

Bronco Bill – at 22:16

FloridaGirl – at 18:55 --- Your main Cultural Considerations page is now linked in the Forum Index here

FloridaGirlat 22:18

LMWatBullRun,

Because the highland scot-irish culture is part of the Appalachian heritage. I combined them under the broader title, or I would end up duplicating information.

Link to Appalachian Heritage page.
http://tinyurl.com/y3g5ad

Link to the Main Culture Page
http://tinyurl.com/tu4tk

I will be back with my observations after I think about it for a while.

FloridaGirlat 22:22

Bronco Bill – at 22:16

Thank you kind Sir…

Bronco Bill – at 22:27

Y’welcome. Let me know when you add more “culture” to the page :-). wturner3 at gmail dot com. I’ll add those as I did with the Amish link…

FloridaGirlat 23:21

Bronco Bill – at 22:27

Thank you much… I have a request though. Could you change the link for “Cultural COnsideration and their impact on individuals and Communities” at the top of that page to just take you directly to the link instead of further down the page. I will add to the top of the “Culture Main Page” Something like: “Specific culture Links at Bottom”

That way, the Culture page will be read first.

OR Change the wording on the first (top) link to…. “Overcoming barriers; Understanding Culture”

OR Change the wording on the first (top) link to…. “Considering Culture for Interventions”

Someone help me here…. My brain is dead!

FloridaGirlat 23:51

My Thoughts on…

Appalachian Heritage

Communicating the risks:

“Because of past experiences with large mining and timber companies, many dislike authority figures and institutions that attempt to control behavior. It may be helpful to “sit a spell” and “chat” before getting down to the business of collecting health information. To establish trust, it is necessary to demonstrate an interest in the client’s family and other personal matters, drop hints instead of giving orders, and solicit clients’ opinions and advice.”

  • Under communication the “sit a spell” and “chat” might be better served as an informal community function that is not too large, but would still meet the need of reaching more people. An invited guest, of someone who is respected within the community should speak about preparing. (The person should be comfortable doing presentations). Written stuff is OK, but they will get more from a talk, or PowerPoint.
  • Smoking should also be addressed.
  • This group of people are very receptive to factual information. Tell the truth, the facts as they are…. Then offer up ways of protecting themselves, their families and their community. They will understand.
  • Funerals may be an issue. Explain before a pandemic about modes of infection. Their funerals last up to 3 hours. The body is displayed for hours…. All will view the body. After the funeral services, fancy meals are served…. Everyone attends.
  • Churches serve as the social centers in the community. Alternative method of community support should be discussed.
  • Health Care practices include traditional and non-traditional folk and home remedies. Some of these practices are known to be risky, at best. Compromises need to be discussed.
  • The Appalachian people tend to wait until they are extremely ill before seeking medical care. Once they do seek medical care, They tend to have high expectations and they give themselves up to the physician’s decisions.
  • Trust will need to be developed with families before a pandemic. They will be non-compliant if a health care worker tries to rush them.

06 November 2006

Bronco Bill – at 08:31

FloridaGirl – at 23:21 --- Let me see what I can do.

Bronco Bill – at 15:53

FloridaGirl – at 23:21 --- Slight change in the links set-up on the Forum Index: I’ve left the name to reflect what your title here says. Click on the title towards the top of the page under “Personal Prepping” (that may change if/when I find a better heading to put it under); that will take you down the Forum Index page to the link to this thread, a Forum thread.
I’ve also included a link immediately below that link that will take you to the Wiki Page you created.

Also, I’ve added your Wiki page to the Wiki Index under “C” for Cultural. Hope this helps…let me know…

Bronco Bill – at 16:04

Now let’s do it and include the proper links!!
These are links to the Forum pages:

  1. The Forum Index
  2. Cultural Considerations

And these are links to the Wiki pages:

  1. Wiki Index
  2. Cultural Considerations
Grace RN – at 16:11

Should have a language barrier, dealing with visually/hearing impaired link……

Bronco Bill – at 16:18

Grace RN --- No threads or Wiki pages available to link to… :-(

FloridaGirlat 19:12

Bronco Bill – at 16:04

Thank You! You are so very helpful!

Grace RN – at 16:11

That is a great Idea. Maybe we should build an entry page called
“Barriers” i.e.

  • in educating the public;
  • in risk communication;
  • in indivual and Family preparation;
  • in business preparation, etc.

Do you want to start pages on Language barriers, visual/hearing impaired; Maybe a special needs page?

07 November 2006

Bronco Bill – at 12:37

FloridaGirl – at 19:12 --- It’s what I do. ;-)

Bronco Bill – at 12:38

FloridaGirl – at 19:12 --- Glad to help. It’s what I do. ;-)

08 November 2006

FloridaGirlat 20:17

Influentia2

I haven’t forgotten you… I have found LOTS of great info on Cherokee’s (Problem is… most of what I am finding are great stories, and historical culture. (And Of course I am reading them… ). That goes into the historical view…. But there isn’t any consistency in some of the certain areas I am trying to provide information on. I am researching the Journals now…

I have to take a short break until this weekend… School and scholarship stuff….

I will try to find you a story I read that was used to teach children about character.

FloridaGirlat 21:47

I find there is truth in these stories….

Cherokee Wisdom\\

One evening an old Cherokee told his grandson about a battle that goes on inside people. “My son, the battle is between two wolves,” the old Cherokee said. “One wolf is evil. It is anger, envy, sorrow, regret, greed, arrogance, self-pity, guilt, resentment, inferiority, lies, false pride, superiority, and ego. The other wolf is good. It is joy, peace, love, hope, serenity, humility, kindness, benevolence, empathy, generosity, truth, compassion, and faith.” “This is a battle that rages inside of each of us… this battle of the wolves….”

The grandson thought about it for a minute and then asked his grandfather, “Which wolf wins?”

The old Cherokee simply replied, “The one you feed.”

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.CulturalConsiderationsAndTheirImpactOnIndividualsAndCommunities
Page last modified on November 08, 2006, at 09:47 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / City Triage 3

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: City Triage 3

23 October 2006

Bronco Bill – at 13:21

Continued from here


EnoughAlready – at 12:00

DennisC – at 11:26 - I agree, and rightfully so. Additionally, I believe people will first swarm into areas that have potential resources. National Guard, large food banks, etc. If quarantines are established, it will be multifaceted… as seen on the TMC preparation guide. There will probably be an initial influx into cities. (I even see a more drastic “swarm” across the southern borders.) What follows, IMHO, will be as you describe. There will be an initial “rush” by some out of the cities, but it will take time for reality to sink in. Smaller population areas will most likely see very desperate people fleeing larger population areas. Honestly, I think that would happen between waves. But, what are we even talking about… it’s just the flu. And we are paranoid extremist with these Gone With The Wind and Grapes of Wrath exodus scenarios we are discussing. We are too technological for anything like that to happen “again.”


DennisC – at 12:04

Medical Maven – at 11:50 -“Home field” advantage

Yes, one of the more interesting comments I heard (feed store talk) is that some will just pull out the cattle guards. They have such guards even on the state highways around here and they are deep. They figure that will slow “them” down enough to shoot the tires and radiators. My plan is just to sit and watch. I just know that I would not want to get some of those “good old boys” mad at me. Some of them seem to even enjoy planning such things.

2beans – at 17:49

As a downtown resident, I know my local homeless by sight; the convenience stores or bus stops or drug store fronts they hang out near. I believe you are correct, EnoughAlready, and I believe I’ll print the post on skid-row staph and give copies to the shopkeepers in the affected areas. We had a big drug problem to begin with. Since Katrina we’ve had a VeryBigDrugProblem. This could be important. A sizeable contingency hangs out at the courthouse and library. I wouldn’t want to know the results of a bacteriological culture of handrails in the stairwells.

moeb – at 18:58

snip~

Nabarro said a critical time in determining whether the world has brought the spread of H5N1 virus under control will be end of 2006 and beginning of 2007.


haven’t you heard? this thing is almost under control (weird cackles are heard in the background)

cactus – at 19:08

DennisC – at 12:04

  I guess good ol boys are the same everywhere. I have heard the “pull up the cattle guards” here,too.

25 October 2006

Bird Guano – at 16:14

A skip loader and a LOT Of fill dirt will accomplish the same thing.

At least that’s what our little neighborhood plans to do :-)

Checkpoint Charlie.

Ottawan – at 18:43

I can’t help but notice that wikians from large cities are rare — most posters here seem to be from less populated areas.

Any theories why that is?

crfullmoon – at 18:51

;-) Because the people I know through the internet that live in large cities don’t come and post after I give them info about pandemic and Flu Wiki?? (sigh. Sure hope they’re trying to prep though.)

cactus – at 22:15
  There are a lot of cityfolks here. 
 But, I think us country yokels are perhaps more open to the idea of putting things by. As a young wife, I spent many hours every summer canning and freezing stuff. But then my husband was a logger, and winter meant no work, sometimes for many months. My stash, some game, and a good wood supply ensured that my little ones would be warm and fed.

 Not the case anymore, my baby is over 30 lol, and I used to go to grocers very frequently. I got out of the habit. If it wasn`t for this dratted pandemic lurking, I would be enjoying going back to my roots.
Okieman – at 22:53

Ottawan – at 18:43

While of course there are exceptions, I think big city folks feel that technology can save the day. They live in a mostly artificial world of concrete, plastic, steel and glass, and the natural world does not intrude in upon them too terribly often. They also seem to expect the government to take care of problems. There is an attitude “What, me worry? That is what the government is supposed to do, take care of me.

Country folks are a bit more independent and tend to decide for themselves whether something is a danger or not, rather than waiting on someone to tell them. They are a bit closer to the charms and ravages of nature, and if they have raised livestock, they have likely had to deal with one disease or another. They know that things can go bad very quickly, whether we want them to or not. Ask a farmer with a bumber crop which has just been beaten into the ground by a hail storm whether things can go bad fast or not. Life ain’t fair. It is what it is, and we just have to deal with it. Hike up our britches, straighten our cap, and go back at it.

In short, city folk tend to ignore admonitions by the government, but still expect the government to fix problems when they occur. Country folk tend to listen to the governments admonitions, but don’t trust them to fix the problem or protect them, so they do what has to be done by themselves.

Now, since I’m one of the coutry folk, I’m probably a bit bias in my estimation of the why’s and wherefores.

One other thought. There has been a prevailing belief among country folk, at least here in Oklahoma, that sometime in a bad troubled future, hords of city folk would pour into the countryside looking for something to eat. This has been one of those feedstore or barbershop debates for years. News of a possible pandemic plays upon this fear. Hurricanes Katrina and Rita reinforced this fear. I think there are probably a lot of country folk that have prepped in quiet, hoping for the best, but prepared for the worst.

DennisCat 23:03

Okieman – at 22:53 Country folk

Oh no, I have been stereotyped….. But if “hordes of city folk would pour into the countryside looking for something to eat”, they better be wearing Kevlar before they climb the apple trees. People here would fight to keep their food for their family.

Okieman – at 23:13

DennisC – at 23:03

I know that in this day and time there is a lot of gray area between big city folk and country folk. Don’t mean to stereotype everyone into one or the other.

Yea, if things get hard and dangerous, stealing little green apples might get someone worse than a tummy ache. Let us all hope that lead poisoning does not become common.

We need more city folks prepping. For everyones sake.

Monotreme – at 23:27

“City folk” are *not* prepping because they are being told *not* to - very explictly, very loudly and very often by people at the highest levels of authority and by all their local media. I am 100% sure that this is true in New York City. They are getting a completely different message than “country folk.” Why that is, I don’t know. If the people of New York City were getting the same message that the people of Fort Wayne were getting they would act. But they aren’t getting that message. Quite the contrary. Why that is, I’ll let others speculate.

Note, in Arkansas the CDC is advising people to stockpile food for 2 months of food. In NYC, people are being advised to store 3 days worth of food. Don’t blame the “city folk.” They are being deliberately fed misinformation.

DennisCat 23:31

Okieman – at 23:13 no problem here, just having fun with my Okie “neighbor”. :) and just for the record, I have neither gun nor apple tree.

I feel sorry for those in NYC, but I never understood why someone would choose to live there or remain in such cities- but to each his/her own. Last time I was there I could not even see a star on a clear night. I am afraid that most of the larger cities will not do well in a (>2–5%) pandemic. Even a moderate one would drastically change city life and possibly tilt the political power base (ever notice the most large cities are in “blue states”). I just don’t know what the answer is for large cities. If the virus can live a week on a surface, what do you think the subway system alone would be like? I can only pray for them and hope that they make preperations.

DennisCat 23:46

Monotreme – at 23:27 They are being deliberately fed misinformation.

I think that may be the difference. People around here (my local area) seek their own information and rebel at being “fed” information. As Okieman said “country folks” tend to be more independent. It is sad that many people in NYC listen to what is “fed to them” instead of being independent thinkers and seeking their own information. Some people will always believe the New York Times over a MD like Webster. Even here on FW I notice a trend (nothing exact) that many of the large city people tend to “believe” news sources by a journalists instead of the doctors, nurses, PhD’s and professionals here. Some equate a newpaper article from a journalist with an AA degree in English with the gospel and a statement by a PhD in biophysics or biochemist or an MD as a rumor.

I only hope that more and more people will wake up and become prepared.

Monotreme – at 23:56

DennisC – at 23:46

But country people are not being fed disinformation. They are being told to stockpile food for 2 months by public health authorities. There is story after story in their newspapers telling them to prepare. There are lists of what to buy in the grocery stores. Their local governments are making very serious plans for a severe pandemic. This is happening at every level in some states.

I repeat, if New Yorkers were given the same message that “country people” are being given, they would act appropriately. They aren’t stupid.

26 October 2006

DennisCat 00:13

Monotreme – at 23:56

My only information sources are electronic. I would think that everyone would have access to those sources. We are not being “told” anything nor are there lists in stores. We have no newspapers here (can you imagine a news paper boy riding 5 miles on a gravel road to deliver one paper?) It sounds like the problem is with the NYC newspapers and their politicians. But that is just from a nearsighted guy in a forest viewing from a great distance in both miles and culture. It seems like even people in NYC could have access to the same information that we have here “out in the sticks” if they wanted to.

Walrus – at 01:35

Can anyone point to an offcial government website that is advocating prepping for two months? Can you then point to a NYC website suggesting preping for three days?

This “information assymetry”, if it is real, is frightening in its implications.

Oremus – at 03:02

DennisC – at 23:31

They’ll get to see the stars when the grid goes down.

crfullmoon – at 07:25

Arkansas ‘ plan (p76) assumes 6 to 8 months before vaccines

(“ Moreover, it is possible that no vaccine will be available “)

No times given? But lots of good info: pdf, Food and Water storage suggestions

some of their website links only say “Information coming soon.” But, they have all the fed.stuff. (“What is Arkansas doing? Information coming soon” )

crfullmoon – at 07:41

(Don’t have time to look through all NY’s plan, but I now see some more mass fatality plan stuff there that will be problems; bodies dead of contagious disease can only be disposed of by “licensed” funeral director, ect? To find out how many extra supplies they may need, use the old CDC Flu-with itty-bitty mortality-rate models? )

NY website; “Keep a supply of non-perishable food and other essential household items on hand so you can minimize trips to stores and other crowded places in the event of a pandemic.”

Okieman – at 08:14

Monotreme and DennisC,

I think politicians and bureaucrats in the more rural states, ie-states with significantly more rural areas than urban, still have ties with their country kin. In other words, they visited their grandparents in the country growing up, they have uncles or cousins still in the country, or they grew up in the country before moving into the city to work. For this reason, they still have a connection with a shred of the independent and self sufficient country attitudes that remain even into this day. When these politicians and bureaucrats start looking into what needs to be done and realize it could be incredibly bad and their state and cities will be on their own (as per the federal governments admonition), they start going back to their roots and looking at self sufficient approaches to the problem.

If a big city politician or bureaucrat has grown up in the city, their grandparents grew up in the city and all their friends/family grew up in the city, they have a tendency to think that the city will provide for their needs, just like it has always done. They do not advocate individuals and families stocking up on food because it is just too far removed from their experience or their families experience. They think the city can get what it needs and provide it to the people. It is ignorance and hubris. Ignorance of the “powers that be” in the big cities and heavily populated states. (I have always found it interesting that big city folk look upon their country cousins as being ignorant, when in fact it is probably more the other way around in this day and time. But again, I’m a bit biased;-)

Country folk are not too far removed from the time when they and theirs had to provide for their own needs. They know that food does not come from the grocery store, it comes from a farm. Water does not come from a faucet, it comes from a well, lake or stream. Electricity does not come from a socket in the wall, it comes from a generating plant in the country.

What is at work here is not purposeful misguidance of the masses, but rather ignorance and hubris of the governmental leaders of the big cities.

Medical Maven – at 10:09

The “Twin Towers” of hubris, the downplaying of panflu. And the shock and horror of the people in the streets of all of the megacities will be every bit as pronounced as on that day in September in New York.

cactus – at 10:26
 MM, isn`t that a big part of the denial? 9–11 was horrid. I remember being glued to my tv for days. But, as shocked as New Yorkers were that day, the city was really mainly untouched, and returned to normal fairly rapidly.

 Aren`t the average city dwellers thinking the same way if PF occurs?   It would be bad for a day or two, then it would business as normal.We know better, of course.
Medical Maven – at 10:32

cactus at 10:26-And in regards to terrorism they are mostly in denial about living with a “bullseye” on their backs. As I have elaborated before in more detail, it was only recently that the “equation” changed for living in the city.

Bluebonnet – at 15:55

This is what I found at New York State’s Health Department:(accompanied by a huge cartoon of a chicken). MM is right - this is so bogus!!!

Bird Flu and You Get the Facts! H5N1 Avian Influenza Get the Facts! Many birds around the world are getting sick from H5N1 avian influenza. This is known as “bird flu.” Experts think the bird flu will come to the United States, maybe even this year. It is not here now. If it does arrive here, you should know: Bird flu is not the same thing as “pandemic flu.” • Pandemic flu would make lots of people sick all over the world. • It would spread easily from one person to another. • Bird flu does not do that. • Bird flu would have to change form to become pandemic flu. We don’t know if this will ever happen. Bird flu is hard for people to catch. • Most people who became sick with bird flu came into contact with sick chickens or ducks and touched them with bare hands. • You could also get bird flu by touching things that had droppings from sick or dead birds on them. • Meat that has been cooked all the way through cannot give you bird flu. Even though bird flu isn’t here right now, you should never touch wild birds with your BARE HANDS. • Birds can carry many kinds of germs that can make us sick. • A bird could look fine and still be sick. • If you MUST handle a sick or dead bird, wear gloves and wash your hands afterwards. To learn more about bird flu, visit www.nyhealth.gov 7084 04/06

And this from Plan to Prepare:

Food for Thought In case of an emergency, you should have a three to seven day supply of food on hand for each member of the family, but what kinds of food are best and how can you be sure they will be safe to eat when you need them? Use the tips below to help you plan.

Tailor your supply of food to the type of things your family normally eats. Familiar food can lift morale and give a feeling fo security in times of stress. Consider whether there is anyone in your family with special diets or allergies that you will need to accommmodate. Buy foods that need no refrigeration and little or no preparation or cooking. Build your reserves by buying a few extra items a week until you have a supply large enough to feed your family for three to seven days. Have extra fuel/charcoal on hand if you own a grill or camp stove. Never use a grill or camp stove inside the house because dangerous carbon monoxide fumes could build up and cause illness or even death. Keep an appliance thermometer in you refrigerator and freezer at all times. This will eliminate guess work about how cold the unit is and tell you if the food is safe to eat. The refrigeratior should be set at 40 degrees or less and the freezer at 0 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit. Keep your freezer as full as possible. A full freezeer will keep food cold longer and also is more energy efficient. If you fear a power outage is likely, turn your refrigerator and freezer to their coldest setting. If the electricity goes off, this will extend the length of time the food will keep without spoiing. Buy freeze-pack inserts or fill plastic jugs with water and keep them frozen. Put them in the refrigerator as soon as possible after the power goes off. Know where dry an block ice can be purchased. Helpful Hints Keep canned food in a dry area where the temperature is fairly cool - between 32 and 70 degrees Fahrenheit. To protect foods from pests and extend their shelf life, store them in tightly closed cans or metal containers. Do not store your reserve food supply in the basement if it is prone to flooding. Rotate your reserve food supply. Try to use food by the “best if consumed by” date. If foods don’t have a “best if consumed by” date, then mark (in ink) the date you purchased the item. Place new items at the back of the storage area and older ones in front. Inspect your reserves periodically to make sure thare are no broken eseals or dented containers. Keep on Top of Things! You’ll need to be aware of what is happening in an emergency.

Listen to the radio for information updates. If the electricity is off and you do not have a battery-powered radio, use your car radio. But never run your car for an extended period of time in an open or closed garage! Start thinking about what you would need to do if you had to leave your house: It’s a good idea to have the bulk of your family’s disaster supplies packed in an easy-to-carry container and ready to go quickly. Be sure to bring cash, as well as your ATM or credit card, change for the pay phone, telephone numbers of family and friends, an extra set of car and house keys, your driver license or other photo ID, and valuable personal papers that cannot be easily replaced. Stockpiled Supplies Available in Health Emergencies Did you ever wonder what would happen if an exotic illness like SARS or a new strain of fllu arrived unexpectedly in New York and started making hundreds of people sick? New York officials, along with their federal and local counterparts, have been working together to be ready to provide mass immunizations or mass medications, should it ever become necessary.

At the Governor’s request, the federal Stategic Nation Stockpile (SNS) could arrive in New York Sate within 12 hours. The SNS is a national repository of antibiotics, chemnical antidotes, anittoxins, life-support medication, IV administration, airway maintenance supplies, and medical/surical itmes. It is designed to suppplement and re-supply state and local public health apgencies in the event of a serious public health threat.

Every county in New York State has identified various places where antibiotics, vaccines and other medical supplies could be quickly distributed, if needed, to help prevent illness. In an emergency, these sites would be announced on radio and TV.

If you are directed to go to a public health emergency medication pick up site, you should have the following with you:

photo identification Your address and emergency contact phone number Names and ages of all household members Weights of all persons in your household under 100 pounds Medical allergies of all persons Know medical conditions, including Liver problems Kidney problems Epilepsy Heart Conditon Immuno-compromised Skin conditon Pregnancy or breastfeeding Write down this information now, and update it often, so you will have it if needed.

This is the first mention I’ve seen of the Strategic National Stockpile.

http://tinyurl.com/uxjql

Okieman – at 18:45

Bluebonnet – at 15:55

As I was reading the second portion of the material you posted, it surprised me the number of typos that were present. Here on the fluwiki forum we have typos all the time because we don’t take the time to look up the correct spelling, or we type so fast we miss a lick and don’t proof read before posting. But in a governmental document of this type,…amazing.

Anyway, I have thunk ;-) some more on this topic concerning big cities and the lack of practical information. I think that in addition to ignorance and hubris there is the issue of telling several million people to stock up on +2 weeks worth of food, when there is a substantial portion that has no way of affording it. The ugly issue of “haves” versus “have nots” raises its head and the bureaucrats and politicians back away in horror. If the poorer folks were really told what could occur they would demand the city provide emergency food for them, and there is no way the city is able to do so. Most of the people would probably just eat it up as soon as they got it, and the city would be back in the same bad position they originally found themselves. So…they are probably looking at ways to provide during the emergency. This is probably where more ignorance and hubris kicks in. In a severe pandemic this will be nigh-on impossible. So the leaders are stuck between a rock and a hard place.

City folks reading this and able to afford it…stock up. Begin prepping. If nothing happens, then give it to the homeless and hungry later.

Hide in the Hills and wait – at 19:30

It is almost as if “they” are setting up the cities for “The Final Solution”.

Walrus – at 19:33

The NYC stuff quoted here looks like it was meant for children. Are people really are so dumb that they don’t know not to use a camping stove indoors or run a car in an enclosed garage? If so, I’m afraid that an unintended consequence of a pandemic is going to be a cleaning out of the shallow end of the gene pool.

As I’ve also said, I’m concerned that any distribution of available government aid is going to be determined by political analysis. In the case of New York, I would have to rate the place unsaveable except with extremely good leadeship, an extremely good plan and very, very, tight discipline, the latter perhaps being the most important.

It is conceivable to organise and distribute aid and supplies along civil defence lines (a “Blockfuhrer” in each block, a leader and committee in each apartment block, floor wardens, deputies, commitees, etc. etc., but this requires discipline, courage and a lot of hard work. Would New Yorkers be up to it?

P.S. On the subject of cremation of the dead which was mentioned elsewhere, forget it! There simply isn’t enough firewood available - you need about 400 pounds to do it properly as I’ve read somewhere else. Crematoriums use gas and electricity as well, both of which are in short supply.

My understanding at least of Australian pandemic plans, is that nurses wil be able to sign flu related death certificates and mass graves will be provided, in public parks if necessary, that can later be provided with appropriate monuments.

Monotreme – at 23:30

Okieman,

It is certainly true that people in rural areas are more familiar with the idea of “stocking up” for emergencies than city people are. In the Midwest, anyone who grew up on a farm or has relatives who did, knows about “putting food up for the winter”.

However, my point is about information, not how the information is being used. If the city people were given the same information as the country people, their response might not be to stock up, but rather to leave. This would be especially true of better educated professionals who typically have more options. Even with all the resources in the world and excellent planning, NYC would be hell during a severe pandemic. If a New Yorker with options really thought this was likely, he’d probably move somewhere else.

I don’t buy the argument that some sort of mental block is preventing public health professionals from recognizing that NYC’s pandemic plan is a sham. They are choosing not to speak up. They are choosing not to warn people. Why?

DennisCat 23:50

Walrus – at 19:33 about the unthinkable-

If you are out of body bags or if embalming/cremation is not available, you can wrap the body in cotton sheets and spray with bleach diluted to 1:10 then wrap in plastic sheeting and attach identification. At one time FW had some info about such things but I cannot find it right now. The file I had for that was burials.pdf but I am not finding the origianl lind right now.

27 October 2006

DennisCat 00:13

Monotreme – at 23:30

I don’t think that there is a lack of information in NYC. They can access the same info as you, I, or any fluwikian can. The problem is the misinformation (dare I say lies of omission) that people at the Times and other NYC MSM feed them. From way out here in the middle of no place, it seems that NYC dwellers think that their city papers are some how better just because they are a big city.

Monotreme – at 00:28

DennisC,

The problem for the New Yorkers is that they trust Health Commissioner and they trust their local media. Their health commissioner tells the heads of other agencies that a pandemic will not happen. The result is that the heads of those agencies don’t tell their employees to do any planning. No supplies are purchased. No drills are conducted. If any worker-bee asks, they are told there is nothing to worry about. This is very different than in other areas of the country. Some public health authorities are telling the essential workers to begin planning immediately. Supplies are being purchased, HCWs are being fit-tested for N-95′s, and additional employees are being hired specifically to dealt with a pandemic,etc.

In addition, the NYC media seems dedicated towards blocking any negative news about a pandemic. The stories that appear in some markets do *not* appear in NYC. Sounds strange, but I know this for a fact. Any stories that do appear are spun to make prepping look foolish. btw, most New Yorkers do not read the NY Times or the WSJ (which used to have pretty good coverage). They read the NY Daily News or the NY Post.

If your local public health authority tells you a pandemic is nothing to worry about and the local media tells you that only flakes prep, why would you look for other sources of info?

The cities that are seriously prepping are giving their citizens completely different information than New Yorkers are being given. Why?

Jumping Jack Flash – at 00:39

I wonder if NYC leaders realize the danger, but deem it impossible to prepare enough to make a difference.

janetn – at 00:54

As Okieman stated its more about the haves and the have nots. Think about it if they came out and said we need you to stock enough food for 8 weeks, what would the outcry from the poor be? They would demand that the government provide the recomended amt. of food. Enough accusations floated around after Katrina. How often did we hear that the government had made no provisions for the poor who couldnt evacuate. I think Okieman has hit the nail on the head. New Yorkers are not known for being terrible shy or demure. They would howl like a stepped on cat. TPTB dont want that especially in an election year

Monotreme – at 09:45

Jumping Jack Flash and janetn,

Deliberately distorting information that is presented to the public would make TPTB and the local media morally cupable for every death in NYC during a severe pandemic. It is not for them to decide what people should or should not know. If presented the facts regarding the consequences of a severe pandemic, many people would ignore the message, just like everywhere else. However, some would take appropriate action. For some, that would mean moving from NYC. We cannot save everyone, but we should save those we can.

Deliberately writing off the people of NYC, and not telling them that you have done so, is a crime against humanity. If I search history for a parallel, I find myself in a very dark place.

31 October 2006

crfullmoon – at 23:25

History will be written by the survivors - hopefully not the ones hiding under Mt Weather

08 November 2006

Oremus – at 14:43

Would City Triage include forcibly evacuating essential workers from B-cities to A-cities?

To prevent flu spread, you would have to quarantine them somewhere for two weeks.

A = a city that can be saved, B = a city that cannot be saved, C = unsure

Jumping Jack Flash – at 18:31

From what I’ve discerned, Gunnison, CO was one of the only towns, if not the only town, that went unscathed in 1918. Reason being TPTB at that time had the vision and fortitude to implement quarantine. No quarantine = implosion in this technology dependent JIT society.

Do you really think there are any “A” cities?

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.CityTriage3
Page last modified on November 08, 2006, at 06:31 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Learn from My Mistake and Dont Do This

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Learn from My Mistake and Dont Do This

09 August 2006

anonymous – at 19:44

I know we had a topic similar to this once but thought we could start it up again. I find that learning from others mistakes makes life a little easier! Please share things you’ve tried that you would advise against!

Annie – at 19:45

Sorry…that was me above. I never had to type my name before but our computer had some major problems last night so maybe it erased it.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 19:51

If you are not used to cranking a generator, write out the directions in BIG letters that you can read almost in the dark & laminate the sheet & attach it to the generator. I just about killed myself trying to start ours once, in the dark, with a flashlight in one hand — so also consider keeping a head mounted flashlight handy near the generator too.

Melanie – at 19:54

A head mounted flashlight is a good, basic prep for everyone, not just those with generators.

Kim – at 19:58

Do not leave a pump or siphon sitting outside when it’s freezing weather unless ALL of the water has been drained out of it. It’s no fun to try and pump ice :-(

Edna Mode – at 20:03

If you’ve never cooked over an open fire, try it before your life depends on it. We camped this weekend and I cooked all our meals using a Dutch oven, fry pan, and griddle over our campfire. It worked out well after all was said and done, but there was a definite learning curve. If you are planning to cook over a fire in a pinch, make sure you have a good set of BBQ utensils (they are on sale for dirt in areas where summer is winding down) and some oven mitts or fireplace gloves (potholders leave too much skin exposed).

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 20:36

Edna Mode, that’s right — fireplace gloves or welder’s gloves are great to keep the heat from singeing your arms — or worse.

When I bought my manual oven it came with 2 leather (suede) pot holders too, that are wonderful!!

You know, for years I’ve had this stuff, but I’ve never actually had to use them. almost can’t wait for fireplace weather so I can test some of these cast iron pans, & BBQ tools, etc.

I guess I could test on the grill, but that just seems too easy…..:-)

Average Concerned Mom – at 22:23

Um… how about … do not freak out and go shopping and buy a lot of whatever canned foor items that store happens to have one sale — like tins and tins of canned sardines — unless you have a plan for how you will actually EAT said sardines. (-:

Always prep with a plan!

Olymom – at 22:51

My biggest goofs have been as a result of watching Home & Garden TV where they make “do-it-yourself” look so easy. You can NOT paint a bathroom linoleum floor and have it be anything you want in your life. (the paint pulls back from the edges — so my blue paint over a yellow lineoleum resulted in a pea-green rim around the room that looked worse than a garage mechanic’s bathroom toilet).

One of my MANY fears about H5N1 is the notion that I might have to feed my family on what I can raise in our garden. I can grow radishes well enough, but food for four? Gads. I did try some new “crops” this year but with not very impressive results.

Kim – at 23:42

Do not buy 20 lbs. of carrots to dehydrate, at least not 20 lbs at one time. I decided to go the cheapie route and buy 20 lbs of raw carrots instead of being intelligent and buying frozen (frozen = already cleaned and sliced). I am so sick of slicing carrots that I could scream! The nice thing is that they did turn out wonderfully, and I believe that I can now chop as easily and uniformly as Rachel Ray (but still not quite as fast),

10 August 2006

Eccles – at 00:09

Here’s one that Hillbilly Bill preaches, I agree with (and yell Amen!) and y’all need to take serious heed of.

Make sure you have actually tried out, set up and used any equipment that you believe you will be depending on to preserve your and your family’s life and safety. No exceptions. If you haint tried it out, you can’t depend on it.

And that’s all I have to say about it.

AnnieBat 00:24

Once you have your stores in place, cycle through them with your normal shopping. This way you will always have the ‘freshest’ in store. It is no use having a mile of food and it all reaches its use-by date just when you need it most.

Also, when buying and storing canned goods, ensure none of the cans are dented - this can lead to rusting and spoiling of the contents.

AND, ensure all labels on the cans are well secured - or write on the lids what the contents are. If your cans should get damp for any reason, and the paper labels peel off, meals now become a lucky dip!

Bump - Bronco Bill – at 01:11
Eccles – at 01:14

Annie B - If my canned goods reach their use-by date just when I need them the most, I’ll keep right on using them. The contents will be just fine for a fairly long time after that date has receded into history. Folks need to realize that if it says USE BY Jan 12th, they don’t have to flip everything out on the 13th. Maybe by the 13th of the next year or the one after that.

blackbird – at 01:57

Annie, good idea to re-establish this discussion.

Regarding testing out your preps (this was covered before, but I just verified that it’s important): ensure you can OPEN any food storage BUCKETS you have. Imagine if you threw your back out, or if you were sick with regular flu during quarrantine or SIP. You’d have plenty of food but be unable to get at it. The regular pails are a challenge for me to pry off when I’m semi-healthy, gamma lids work MUCH better. Also have enough manual can openers in case yours breaks. I have three but have had them for a while so will likely get another one.

My Big Berkey water filter just started leaking (actually, dripping) from the spigot. Not where it joins the body of the unit, but where the water is supposed to come out from. Only it comes when it’s not supposed to. Anybody else have this happen?

bird-dog – at 02:26

AnnieB – at 00:24

“AND, ensure all labels on the cans are well secured - or write on the lids what the contents are. If your cans should get damp for any reason, and the paper labels peel off, meals now become a lucky dip!”

WOW … Thanks for that reminder! I’ve been moving my canned soups, fruits, and vegetables into a warmer but very damp area. Guess I need to reconsider that plan or start *marking*! Oh boy…

pine ridge – at 07:01

bird-dog, If you are semi organized (as I am, only semi :) ) you can leave cans in the little flat boxes they come in and just lable that, not each can. Or atleast come up with a code so you aren’t writting “cream of mushroom soup” every time.

I have also expierimented with just how much charcoal i need in my grill to keep the temp up to bake, surprising it’s not much, and there is enough heat to bake several dishes. If your grill doesn’t have a thermometer, buy an oven one for inside of it.

2beans – at 07:46

If you have to store supplies in various locations around the house - as I do - rather than a single centralized location, make a list, put it in a clear vinyl jacket with your OR solution formula and bleach dilution formula so you can actually find that hand siphon pump when you need it.

Hillbilly Bill – at 08:31

Eccles – at 00:09

A preacher always appreciates a hearty amen now and then, at least in the churches I go to!

It really is easy to deceive oneself into believing that you are all prepared because you assume you have everything needed on hand. The first disappointment comes when you realizse you DON’T have everything you need. Imagine how foolish you will feel if your plans are null and void because of the lack of some simple item that you can’t get now. The second round of disappointment comes when your equipment and plan don’t produce what you thought they would and that negatively impacts some larger part of your survival plan.

A lot of what I have done lately to provide a little bit of essential electricity for my home if the grid is down has taken WAY more time and energy than I expected. Several unplanned trips to Lowes Depot were also needed to fulfill the plan. I would not have wanted to do this under stressful conditions that a pandemic and resulting SIP situation would surely bring about. Also, I had a very disappointing setback that was an inconvenience at this point in time, but would have been a disaster after businesses were shut down and UPS trucks were no longer running.

Would you go camping with a tent you had never assembled or equipment you had never tried out? Practice is Essential.

Northstar – at 09:16

Have a can opener. We had a: vacation, box of prep food, and no… you guessed it. You cannot imagine the frustration.

chillindame – at 09:32

For opening buckets, horse supply companies make a great tool since most horse supplements come in buckets. Go to http://tinyurl.com/hnpza which is the Valley Vet company and then search for pail lid opener. It is in the equine catalog under miscellaneous horse supplies. They cost five bucks and work great.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 09:49

blackbird — now’s the time to buy a Berkey repair kit with spare parts for that rascal — love mine — I must also get a kit since my main supply of water will depend on our Berkey.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 10:02

May I also suggest for bucket opening devices that you consider whether you’ll be doing a LOT of that (have lots of buckets) or only a few. Most of the bucket openers or wrenches you see are plastic, and if you choose that, get a couple in case one breaks.

Or you can purchase metal openers like this:

http://tinyurl.com/o975g

or my personal favorite:

http://tinyurl.com/rxg2g

I like the latter because it’s easy on your hands, if your hands are sore or tired, it’s lightweight but durable & I suppose it could also serve as a weapon to keep your kids away from the chocolate pail!

Annoyed Max- Not mad yet – at 10:07

I agree on the bucket opener. Especially if your someone that does not have enormous man hands (shes a man baby) At least try to open one of those pails of beans you bought before you realize you cant later. It would be like the twilight zone with the geeky guy left alone with his precious books and he breaks his glasses.

chillindame – at 10:17

Annoyed Max, that brings up a good prep that I haven’t thought of: a spare pair of glasses. Thank you.

Desert Dan – at 11:17

Back Up RX Glasses are a great idea anytime. I jsut got my eyes checked and will get new glasses ASAP.

It is a good idea for everyone to make all the routine doctors appointments now.

blackbird you are right about some things being too heavy especially when sick or injured etc. My big plastic containers full of canned food (2 weeks each except water) are almost too heavy to lift. I can drag them around or use a dolly.

My plan is to make things accessable when the pandemic hits but also keep some hidden.

Galt – at 13:48

Just a thought re: bucket openers. I got mine (2) at Ace Hardware for $1.50. If you go this route, you have to ask for the openers for the bulk commercial paint buckets (which are the same shape/size/lid type as the food buckets we’re all using). My Ace had two and I got them both.

Kathy in FL – at 14:03

Make sure that you have multiple ways of getting into your canned goods.

And do not leave cans where they can freeze. Even if you then have some method of opening the cans … they are practically impossible to open.

Never heat cans that have not been “vented” in some way. This could create a potentially explosive situation.

Jane – at 14:23

My Swiss Army knife has a good can opener.

Lauralou – at 14:29

We have an old hand dug well on our property. Currently we are using it to water gardens only, as we are also on rural water. It is away from the house so we set it up with a couple solar panels, an inverter and a battery to run a small pump which runs our sprinkler. Sounds good right? Free power and free water. Well, we put the whole thing on a timer to water regularly… worked like a charm until the inverter blew and stopped charging the battery. The pump kept turning on until the battery died….. so now we get to replace both.

This was primarily a watering system, but combined with a good water filter was also our backup water supply. <sigh> Our lesson was to try things out for an extended period… this worked great for about 6 weeks… (We won’t repeat the timer mistake.)

14 August 2006

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 06:58

Lids for cans…..various sizes………I just realized that if I open a can for the 2 of us at our house & don’t use all the contents sometimes I’d want to leave the stuff in the can, especially if there is a water shortage, rather than mess up a plastic container I’d have to wash later, and if I wanted to store it in an ice chest or somewhere where it might not be able to sit totally upright, it would help if I had can covers to give a tighter seal than aluminum foil. It wouldn’t work for everything, but it would be helpful to me for a lot of stuff, especially since there’s just 2 of us here — we rarely eat a whole can of anything and I buy the smallest cans I can!

Mari – at 12:13

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 06:58 - Thanks for mentioning the can lids. I need some for cat food cans anyway.

silversage – at 12:26

There are plastic storage caps for the wide mouth canning jars. Mine are made by Ball. I found some at Ace Hardware. I used them for my jelly jars that are in the refreigerator. Work great.

Bump – at 16:12
GAR – at 18:06

Olymom great point about the home garden. Some folks think if you plant seeds it will grow. Any good gardener will say what you get is a bonus from Mother Nature. Weather, pest, and animals can take that lovey garden out. Veggie crops can be picky at times. Best advice is talk to a old gardener, you will get more help and tips. Gardeners enjoy passing on advice as to what will grow in your area.

urdar-Norge – at 18:58

if the content of a tin is acidic, like tomatoes, the best is to put the rest content into something else. The cans starts to rust on the moment its opened.. (rust is only healty to eat (iron) but the taste is not so good. I use to pour some foodoil (olive is best because its get stiff) on top of the content in cans etc, better than plastic and used as preserving for hundreds of years.

Lauralou – at 19:05

Lauralou on August 13: it is a *charge controller*, NOT an inverter that is part of our defunct watering system. Sorry- electronics are are area of DH.

Sthrn Tr – at 21:07

Many of my Crystal Springs Mountain Water 1-gallon jugs (expiration 2008) have begun leaking. They’re stored on shelves in a basement under normal conditions. Check your filled water containers.

We also have empty water bladders to fill when TSHTF.

anonymous – at 21:36

silversage – at 12:26 There are plastic storage caps for the wide mouth canning jars. Mine are made by Ball. I found some at Ace Hardware. I used them for my jelly jars that are in the refreigerator. Work great.

urdar-Norge – at 18:58 I use to pour some foodoil (olive is best because its get stiff) on top of the content in cans etc, better than plastic and used as preserving for hundreds of years.

Well, I didn’t know either of these things so thanks to both of you for sharing this info!!

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 21:37

heck again….that was me….cookies get cleaned on Mondays & I forgot it had happened.

18 August 2006

blackbird – at 16:25

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 09:49 I still need to order the repair kit for berkey. Mine stopped leaking after I cleaned it. Embarrasing but true … it hadn’t been that long …. But the kit’s a good idea, thanks for suggesting it.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 06:58 Not “buying the smallest cans” was one of my beginner prep mistakes. I have lots of 28 oz cans of meat for a two-person household. Not a big problem as long as there’s power for refrigeration, or during cold weather, or as long as we eat lots of meat in a single sitting (not).

I don’t have (and won’t get) a generator because of the noise, visibility, need to store quantities of fuel, plus care & feeing (maintenance) of the thing. So I’m working around my limitations. Solar probably wouldn’t work here except in the summer. This energy-retarded prepper is still looking into that and other alternatives.

« going to go study Eccles threads now »

19 August 2006

bumping for bill – at 11:28

bump

20 August 2006

anonymous – at 17:48

I mentioned this on another thread: If you bought those large bleach tablets, break them first into smaller pieces and use good ventilation, mask etc. when you dissolve them in water. I had one sitting in a large jar for several days, and even though it was only partially dissolved, when I opened the lid it almost knocked me off my feet with the fumes. I thought it would kill me. Please be careful!

anonymous – at 17:49

Good reminder about the water jugs leaking. I need to go check mine soon.

Lorelle – at 17:50

Sorry, that is me. Using someone else’s settings.

26 August 2006

silversage – at 23:58

I drained my rain barrels today since it was supposed to rain and I wanted fresh water it in them. Now it’s pouring outside so I ran out to check on them since I hadn’t closed the bottom spigots. It’s raining so hard that the water is shooting over the top of the barrel and they’re not filling up!! I may need to change the down spout, it currently curves at the end and normally runs into the barrel but apparently not when it rains this hard. If I had gone out tommorrow and they had been empty I would have been very disappointed!!

27 August 2006

no name – at 12:05

I had a good laugh at myself…

Looking at my preps I thought my goodness this toilet paper sure takes up a lot of room!!! But I wonder if I have enough of this very important prep?!?

Soooooo…I got out my handy dandy calculator and did a little math…let’s see, I have 29 packages of 6 mega rolls which are suppose to hold 4 regular rolls. I heard on my definitive prep source fluwiki that you need one regular roll a week.

Much to my chagrin I realized I have enough toilet paper for 13 YEARS!!!

amt – at 12:20

As an experiment we planted some vegetables in our backyard (suburban density) and it was worse than a failure due to RATS. We attracted every rodent in a 1/2 mile radius who stripped all but the jalapenos. The neighbors complained and we pulled the plants out.

History Lover – at 13:00

no name @ 12:05 - Look at it this way. You have a very valuable resource for bargaining!

anonymous – at 13:12

Rain barrels and gutters. Attach a piece of string to the end of the gutter, long enough to go all the way down to the rain barrel, with a small washer attached to the end of it. Water will follow the string down.

Use commercial grade, polypro/nylon marine-type string. Light-weight string, not rope, not craft string, not kite twine. Available at any hardware store. To attach the string: drill a single tiny hole in the end of the gutter. Thread the end of the string through the hole and tie a tiny washer on to serve as a retaining device. Anything will do, or just tie a huge knot at the end. Run the string down to the water barrel and secure a washer at the bottom end to keep the string anchored. If you’re using plastic barrels with lids, cut a very small hole in the top of the lid for the string. Otherwise, remember to put the lid on the water when it stops raining or the thing is full.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 21:36

no name – at 12:05

Rest assured that if any one of your family ends up getting sick, with diaherra (I never can spell that right), you’re likely to go through one roll a DAY. Just think ahead & realize that there are unpleasant reasons you could speed up your usage without wanting to! :-)

Anon_451 – at 22:04

amt – at 12:20 I have always looked at the rabbits and squirels as a food source. However in a pinch rats would do just as well. As I remember, they are a bit gamie but when you are starving, any port in a storm will work.

no name – at 22:55

Thanks ya’ll for the support…I guess instead of chagrin it’s charmin. Sometimes I love myself for the shear entertainment value I add to my life. I get a belly laugh every day at some of the things I do.

28 August 2006

Ocean2 – at 15:16

no name, LOL!!!!! We had such a good laugh about your toilet paper! My DH just told me that we have enough for 3 years…..I haven’t told him how much I’ve put in the attic!!

Average Concerned Mom – at 16:06

I want to know, who goes through just one roll per week? Is that per person? Was that person a man?

And, there should be a big difference between those who work out of the home and those who stay at home, right? I mean… well, you know …. more time at home means more uses of the potty at home… not at work, in restaurants for lunch, what have you ….

Maybe I need to rethink our TP usage….

Maybe I should be anonymous for this one… some things are just too personal to share….

Naaaah! (-:

MAinVAat 16:21

I agree wholeheartedly with AVM @ 16:06. We both are stay-at-home now and have 2.5 baths, the larger of which I have commandeered. I know that I can go through one roll/week by myself [I counted so I knew how much to get.] Of course that is the “regular-sized” Charmin not the Mega Roll.

AND, check out something about those different sized Charmins — the smallest [regular size] roll of Ultra has 154 2-ply sheets. The next size, which is supposed to be double that amount, as about 200 sheets, not 308, so it really isn’t double. The Mega sized, which is supposed to equal 4 rolls of regular, has 400 2 ply sheets. If it equaled 4 of the regular sized rolls, it should have 616 sheets. Yes, it is double the 2nd size; however, still — Truth in Advertising!

silversage – at 16:35

MAinVA – at 16:21 I was trying to google usage info and here you already figured it out. What I found was someone wrote: a little over 1 roll per week/person or 60 rolls per year/person. So for a family of four I need 80 rolls for three months. I have that but just thinking about it makes me want to go out the get more, especially if anyone is sick and needs extra.

no name – at 18:30

MAin VA 16:21

Ok…reduce the amount by a third. So I only have enough for 9 years. Definitely next sale I am going to get more…feeling a little insecure not being in double digits!!! Thanks.

Ocean2 15:16

I hadn’t thought about the ATTIC for paper goods!!! Thank you Thank you!

LauraBat 19:14

no name - it could also be a useful bargaining chip so don’t feel bad about having a bit too much! Personally, I don’t think you can ever have too much!

Medical Maven – at 20:08
mj – at 21:50

Ocean2 15:16 & no name – at 18:30 Make sure your attic is varmit free. Varmits would love to make a bed of your paper goods - soooooo soft and comfy, they’d tell all their friends. LOL

Wolf – at 21:58

OK, I confess. Underneath half of my queen size bed are kleenex toilet wipes (on sale a few months ago). I know they can be hell on the pipes, but couldn’t resist the idea of cleany-freshness!

29 August 2006

spiritaxe – at 14:51

having paper for the loo is certainly a luxury we all dont want to lose,,, but eventualy it may be gone so then what do you do !? i would think a handy squirt bottle to “lube the shoot” and “disuade cling-ons” would be a good start to a paperless existance. just a though. :)

02 September 2006

Sthrn Tr – at 07:16

- follow up re: water containers-

Crystal Springs has made amends for leaking gallon jugs with coupons - will try the 24-packs, now

lohrewok – at 07:30

Regarding the tiolet paper. At our house during the summer when everyone is home (4 people) we go thru 1 double roll per day.

Average Concerned Mom – at 08:23

Lohrewok — THANK you! I didn’t want to post our TP usage because I am not honestly ready to accept comments on how to IMPROVE our conservation ability — I mean, if TSHTF I guess we will improvise but until then I am just not ready to comtemplate. Or discuss! (-:

But our usage is a lot more like your family’s.

Average Concerned Mom – at 08:29

Oh, and another thing—

learn from my mistake and don’t do this: try to pressure-can for the very first time (beef stew!) the same time as a predicted bad thunderstorm begins.

We lost power (as we often do) and I was canning (on my gas stove) in the dark, by lantern. It worked but definitely wasn’t ideal and wasn’t fun, either.

03 September 2006

blackbird – at 05:36

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 21:36

“Rest assured that if any one of your family ends up getting sick, with diaherra (I never can spell that right), you’re likely to go through one roll a DAY.”

Have y’all thought about what to do with the used tp? If water is on, flush it away. If there are problems with local supply… burn, bury, what?

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 08:29

I was planning on having a bucket lined with 15–20 liners that TP would be discarded into, then kitty litter would be dumped on top to control odor, before it got too heavy a liner would be removed (maybe once a day) and either thrown away if there is still garbage service or burned.

Kathy in FL – at 08:42

We are on septic and have an inground pool so we will have “flushing buckets” by the toilets that should continue to run the system.

However, if the septic system goes down for some reason — and this isn’t an unreasonable event to prepare for — then we have plans on having a metal burn barrel.

I’ve been getting rid of as much packaging as possible with my food preps so this should help with some with garbage build up. It also saves on space.

The one thing you want to remember though is if you unpackage an item that doesn’t come labeled on the inside then you need to keep a permanent marker handy so you can figure out what it is in. Also, keep a pair of scissors handy to cut out any needed directions to be stored with said item. Trust me, been there and done that in the middle of a hurricane. <grin>

04 September 2006

blackbird – at 03:13

so conventional garbage or burning are the 2 options I’m hearing (thanks to I’m workin’ and Kathy).

Does anyone have any other ideas?

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 05:09

Kathy in FL is right….labeling clearly is soooo important — for instance knowing how much of your dried egg powder equals one egg

05 September 2006

bump – at 00:20
NoFluingAroundat 00:51

29 August 2006 spiritaxe – at 14:51 having paper for the loo is certainly a luxury we all dont want to lose,,, but eventualy it may be gone so then what do you do !? i would think a handy squirt bottle to “lube the shoot” and “disuade cling-ons” would be a good start to a paperless existance. just a though. :)

I have several jumbo packs of Charmin from Sams, along with several boxes of wipes, I think wipes are a better idea, not only does it take care of business, but the wet wipe will also enable you to keep clean, when water is scarce, especially for us women

NoFluingAroundat 00:55

Average Concerned Mom – at 08:23 Lohrewok — THANK you! I didn’t want to post our TP usage because I am not honestly ready to accept comments on how to IMPROVE our conservation ability — I mean, if TSHTF I guess we will improvise but until then I am just not ready to comtemplate. Or discuss! (-:

Well, the way I see it, if TSHTF. I’m going to have to have extra TP to clean the fans as well….LOL

06 November 2006

blackbird – at 17:42

This is a good thread, let’s please continue to share what we learn.

My contribution for today:

Raisins that I bought this summer (post-Karo cluster panic) are smelling distnctly fermented. They are Sunmaid brand, in unopened bag, and the space they were stored in MAY have been hot during the summer. The ‘best before’ date is 11/23/07. Comments:

1) Check and rotate your preps

1a) Assume some losses (surprises) in your calculations of how much food you have on hand.

2) Anyone have recipes that take advantage of fermented raisins (seriously)?

«blackbird goes to vacuum seal and store in a COOL place if the rest smell okay»

lady biker – at 18:24

Blackbird at 17:42, LOLLOL…….maybe make some zipped up oatmeal cookies might make the cookies more moist and good flavor……..holidays are commin….:)

lady biker – at 18:32

Blackbird , cook those raisins with rice, or cook the raisins and put them with apples for a Dutch apple pie, make an old fashioned raisin pie, there’s lots you can do with them. there’s lots of cookin and bakin in these next couple of months so shake out the ole apern and jump in. :)

moeb – at 18:43

ya all need to watch a few cowboy movies cause you can open a can with a big hunting knife

CashBat 18:58

I pulled out a bag of cookies to prepare and looked at the use by date which to my surprise was Feb. 04. I bought them this year! Well I made them anyway just to see, and they taste as good as ever! Good to know…

He thinks I’m crazy too – at 19:00

Learned from my uncle, who never used a bank. He had over 500,000 hidden in house---it burned down along with everything he had—he never did get back 0n his feet!!! We are going to bury our money in different spots around the outside of the house!!!!

KimTat 19:03

I haven’t done it yet, but I have been giving it some thought. I have water barrells of some different sizes and I was thinking of placing them strategiclly around the house. One 15 gallon in the bathroom for washing,teeth brushing…one or two in the kitchen for cooking with, keeping a bucket on hand in each location for waste water.

Most will end up in my basement where I have the most storage space and I’ll have to lug water up stairs.I’ll use the 5 gallons containers for lugging with a funnel for refilling the larger containers maybe. My stairs are old and steep so I’m not looking forward to that at all. If I leave them outside they would freeze in the winter. Any other suggestions? I’m a not quite 5 foot tall person : 0

KimTat 19:58

ok, I have water on the brain today. Just had a thought that most of you young moms and dads have already thought about but its been a while since I had little ones around the house.My grandaughter who is 18 months now and a new one in January will be staying with me. We need to be extra vilgilent about storing open containers of water in buckets, bath tubs, dish pans.. with the ittibitties running around.

Goju – at 20:08

KimT - lugging water up the stairs is good for your stance! - Suggestion - get a pole and hang the buckets filled with water from both ends Then walk up the stairs.

Great Horse stance exercise eh?

HillBilly Bill – at 20:10

Goju – at 20:08

Not sure how wide they make steps where you live, but that won’t work on any staircase in my house.

KimTat 20:16

nor mine :) its an old dungeon basement with steep stairs, not very wide.

Maybe I could create a pulley system…hmm

blam – at 20:27

An experiment that I’ve already performed…..”Disinfecting Money”….To disinfect paper money, use 3/4 cup of bleach in one gallon of water….soak for five minutes….rinse well, spread out to dry. I was afraid that so much bleach would affect the ink in the money but, it didn’t. The paper money came out looking beautiful…it looked almost new. I didn’t experiment with coins and just assumed it would be okay in the bleach solution too.

07 November 2006

BeWellat 01:37

Dittos on looking at expiration dates before buying food items. Also make sure you LIKE it! At Grocery Outlet I bought a goodly number of boxes of organic corn soup. Tried one and it was horrible, even with adding ingredients, plus it was almost outdated. Waste of money. I suppose it would be okay if we were starving to death.

mountainlady – at 03:05

KimT – at 19:03

Maybe you could rig up some type of pulley system and bring the water up like you would out of a well. With 5 gallon buckets that have lids you wouldn’t have to worry about spilling it. One rope could be for lifting, and another one could pull the bucket toward you. Then you could dip out of the bucket until empty.

I have carried many many buckets of water for household use, and have to say that anything you can do to make it easier will really make a difference.

Alternatively, you could get tanks to put upstairs and gravity feed them down to the sinks, etc.

deborah – at 04:44

blam – at 20:27

That sure seems like a large amount of bleach. Are you sure you need the heavy duty solution or would a sanitizing solution work?

LauraBat 06:13

KimT: we keep our delivered 5gal bottles in the garage all winter and the never freeze (we’re in CT so it gets pretty cold). They are not on the floor but on a low shelf a few inches off the ground. We keep them there purely out of laziness! It’s a lot easier to lug them into the kitchen from the garage then up and down the basement stairs - plus the Poland Spring guy puts them on the shelf for me! The smaller bottles (packs of 1 liters say) might get some ice) but we’ve been doing this for years now and have never lost anything. If we needed to we would bring it all insde as you can see into our garage from the windows.

Speaking of water: did an experiment this weekend to see how well a bathtub holds water. Answer: not so great! Well, one held very well, the other lost half in two days (different kind of drain mechanism. The utility sink lost a fair amount as well. So, if you are planning on filling bathtubs, etc. with water, experiment first, see how they hold. If they don’t figure out a way to keep it from draining out.

Meserole in FL – at 07:10

LauraB at 6:13

One hurricane-area recommendation for sealing bathtubs is to clean it with bleach, then use caulk. Once it has dried, fill tub with water. It should stay put.

MO Molly – at 10:36

Bagging and burning seem to be the only methods mentioned for times when flushing is no longer an option. Has anyone planned on composting in a humanure bin? I have made one with chickenwire and an 18 inch “sponge” of straw and leaves which I keep active with kitchen scraps and yard waste. In the spring, if there has been no reason to deposit human waste in the bin, the contents go on my garden. Otherwise I am ready to make human waste deposits at any time. I have lots of straw, leaves, peatmoss and wood shavings that I can use to cover the human waste and I am sure that there will be no odor problem. I just did not want to be caught in the dead of winter having to make decisions like this.

blam – at 10:48

deborah….I thought the same thing about the high concentration of bleach. Everyone on another site kept saying that it was the strength needed to kill the virus. So, I tried it with success on a one dollar bill.

Olymom – at 10:53

Somewhere I read about sprinkling human #2 with either baking soda or garden lime. That is supposed to dry the stuff out. Man, if you go that route (garden composting) I’d sure put a big reminder sign on the bin so that no one forgets and spreads that stuff around next year’s potatoes or carrots.

Traditional emergency latrines are to dig a long trench in the ground and to fill it in as you, uh, move along. That way you could save the lovely leaf mold and peat moss for the garden . . .

MO Molly – at 11:01

In the dead of winter, with frozen, rocky ground, I am going the easy route. The bin is four feet by four feet. Nobody is going to forget what is in it.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 11:04

Olymom – at 10:53 “and to fill it in as you, uh, move along”

Cute pun!

Mari – at 11:14

Meserole in FL – at 07:10 - Where did you apply the caulk to seal up the tub? Around the drain plug? Sounds like a great idea - waterproof but easily removable.

Dennis in Colorado – at 11:25

blam – at 20:27
deborah – at 04:44
blam – at 10:48
It is not uncommon to see recommendations for a 10% bleach/water solution to be used to sterilize objects. Your formula of ¾ cup bleach in 1 gallon of water is approximately 5% (6 ounces bleach + 122 ounces water to make 1 gallon).
Much “weaker” solutions are used to sanitize food equipment; see Guidelines for the Use of Chlorine Bleach as a Sanitizer in Food Processing Operations from Oklahoma State University.

Sailor – at 13:52

LauraB – at 06:13

Go to local hardware and find old style rubber drain plug that will fit your tub and pull out the regular stopper. The rubber plug will seal much better.

ColoradoTomat 14:23

blam – at 20:27 The paper money came out looking beautiful…it looked almost new. I didn’t experiment with coins and just assumed it would be okay in the bleach solution too.

A friendly reminder that bleach is a corrosive. If prolonged contact with metal surfaces, those surfaces will discolor. Read the warning label on the bleach — I did just a few weeks ago when cleaning my garage floor.

08 November 2006

blackbird – at 02:58

Thanks, lady biker, for your suggestions about using fermented raisins. Do you (or does anyone) know of any recipes that would benefit from fermented fruit specifically? I have a couple pounds to make use of…

Meserole in FL – at 07:02

Mari – at 11:14

Yes, caulk around the drain plug. When you no longer need it, it peels off easily.

PBQ – at 08:00

Don’t try to dehydrate your own cranberries. I dried them in my excalibur for 44 hours and all I got was bloated crannies. Threw them away. Madamspinner suggested I “check” or blanche them first. I’ll try that next time. Sam’s frozen spinach is good thought.

bgw in MT – at 16:23

{blackbird – at 02:58

Thanks, lady biker, for your suggestions about using fermented raisins. Do you (or does anyone) know of any recipes that would benefit from fermented fruit specifically? I have a couple pounds to make use of… }

>>Try googling for brandied raisins. I think they might be just fine in that. Use on ham, ice cream, etc. The Dutch even use them to make a beverage it looks like. Brandied raisins search here.

Northstar – at 16:46

blackbird, try making some of those heritage mildly-alcoholic drinks with the fermented raisins! You’re already a step ahead! (s) What are they called… shrubs or something.

Pixie – at 18:22

LauraB - at 16:03:

I stored some of the 5 gallon water containers in the garage last year (free standing garage). They froze, burst, a mess.

For your bathtub, if you can’t find a plug that fits, they have old-fashioned flat pliable plastic discs that (due to the vaccuum created by the water) do a good job of keeping water in a bathtub. You might be able to find one of these at a local hardware store.

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Page last modified on November 08, 2006, at 06:22 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / YOYO

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: YOYO

27 October 2006

Olymom – at 19:29
 I am hoping to distribute this to my rural  neighborhood (in conjunction with fire department and school):

Can you handle a YOYO?

Nah, not the doohickey on a string. YOYO stands for “You’re On Your Own.” Public health authorities are concerned that this might be a bad flu season. Whether it’s pandemic flu, earthquake or a bad winter storm, there are times when services and supplies are disrupted. Let’s see how ready you are to handle a YOYO event. Test yourself:

___ I have two weeks supplies of food and water. (TWO WEEKS?? Yeah. Sobering, isn’t it? Think about it though. Katrina victims had a horrible storm and then there were major obstacles to getting supplies delivered. If we did have a flu pandemic, wouldn’t you rather be home with your soup cans than in line behind someone sneezing?)

___ I have the medicines I’ll need (prescriptions, ibuprofen, first aid kit).

___ I have a way to keep warm if the power is out. (Wood stove and firewood or at least a sleeping bag and warm cap).

___I have a flashlight, extra batteries and a camp stove and fuel. I also have matches and a manual can opener.

___ I have specific supplies for my household, such as pet food and a pet carrier for Barkey the dog and Hairball the cat.

FOR ADULTS ONLY. (If you’re under 21, close your eyes when you read this):

___ I won’t be on the roads to fetch booze, tobacco, chocolate or birth control because I’ve got that figured out. I’ll plan so I don’t add a “cold turkey” experience to an emergency.

Gary Near Death Valley – at 19:34

Yes I passed this test,,,but it was a simple one. Now how would anyone do in a pandemic that lasts months and months, and severly affects grocery deliverys, banking transactions, possibility of affected electrical service. Again this would be months and months of this and oh yea,,,,don’t forget all the sick and dieing across your neighborhood. Not a pretty picture for sure.

CabinLassat 19:36

Will they know whom it came from? I ask because if they do know it came from you and it does get bad and they don’t prep you just put yourself and family in possible harms way.

Feather Pillow – at 19:38

I like this. It’s clever and thought provoking. Care if I use this? It’s disarming and not a head on challenge to someone who really hasn’t thought things through….a first exposure type of thing that would get someone to think. Good job, Olymom!

28 October 2006

Olymom – at 00:46

I posted this with the HOPE that others will use it! By all means! I am hoping to get the support of the neighborhood fire station and local grocery store — if you sign a pledge at the bottom (I’ll prep! detachable coupon) you can stuff it in a box for a “prize” (not sure what, but I’m good to donate a gift certificate for $20 of grocercies) — I’m hoping to get it put on every counter/newspaper box/doorstep in my community. It will say something like “brought to you by your local Firefighters” on the bottom.

Gary, you are right — but I’d say 95% of my rural community knows nothing at all about H5N1. Like so many fluwikians, it’s getting the mind around getting started that is tough.

To me, humor is key. If you can make someone smile, they might just lean over the cubicle wall and say “read this!” —

Many Cats – at 00:55

“HAIRBALL”?!? That is TOO unkind. All my “hairballs” are not amused. They would prefer “Demigod”. :)

Many Cats – at 00:56

P.S. Really a super idea, but you might want to say “at least two weeks”…just a thought.

Jefiner – at 01:14

Dogs think that we are their gods. Cats know that they are our gods.

Jest sayin ;-)

mj – at 06:39

One of the prizes should be a good old fashion Duncan Yoyo.

Olymom – at 15:36

BUMP — hopefully a few more viewers will borrow/improve and circulate. No apologies for being a dog fan.

mj – at 17:56

Maybe one of the last questions could be about reading a brochure/book/website such as… I don’t know… maybe fluwikie? Or reallyready.org or fighttheflu.org or seattle’s or ? Another question might also be about special needs stuff, diapers/depends, diabetic supplies/food, etc.

Dennis in Colorado – at 18:27

Olymom - I think it is a great idea. I love the gentle humor and agree that the humor will cause more people to read it all the way through. Well done. Each of us will probably adapt it somewhat to fit our own priorities, but your post has planted the seed. Thanks.

Bump - Bronco Bill – at 20:22

01 November 2006

bump – at 17:26

06 November 2006

bump – at 09:31

08 November 2006

bump – at 11:29
Olymom – at 13:55

I have received good support from the one church on the peninsula and also from the one neighborhood association. I contacted the newspaper carrier by mail and haven’t heard back from him yet — if he can’t or won’t put our YOYO flyer into newspaper tubes, then I’ll start talking to walkers and see if they will distribute the flyers as they walk the dog. I also hope to get Boy Scouts at the local Christmas tree lot to distribute flyers when they sell trees.

crfullmoon – at 15:22

(hm, now if I can work in something about; if it’s good enough for US Embassy staff, our community’s kids deserve at least as much preparation…)

Check off boxes for

I know how to disinfect water,

have battery-operated carbon monoxide and smoke detectors,

have and understand how to use different types of fire extinguishers

I got the memos from Leavitt re; no vaccines…

(oh, I’m no fun! again…)

I know the current H5N1 case fatality rate and age demographics… (“You have two hours, you can use the internet”)

(I know - What if I put the answers on the back…?)

;-)

David – at 16:11

Boy Scouts would be a great idea… Boy Scout Motto = Be Prepared.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / US Home Schooling Laws

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: US Home Schooling Laws

29 September 2006

Carrey in VA - HomeSchooling Momma of 4 – at 10:12

I posted this information on the “top 10″ thread, but thought it was relavent enough to earn it’s on thread. Please, if you have children, look into the homeschooling laws in your state NOW. Know and understand what the regulations are, and what you need to do to stay within the law. If you need more help understand the law, google “homeschooling support groups” and your home state.

I think schools will stay open as long as possible, much longer than they should. Now will they send an officer to your house if you just take your kids home with no notice? I guess that depends on if your kids are the only ones out. If there are alot of parents keeping thier kids home, than your less likely to get a knock on the door. But why risk it?

This link is to the HSLDA site (homeschool legal defense asso.) Click on your state and and there is a nice boiled down, easy to understand, explaination of your states laws. http://www.hslda.org/laws/default.asp

One funny thing, they have VA listed as a moderately regulated state. All we have to do is send in a “letter of intent” in the begining of the school year, and then a copy of the results of a standardized test on math and language arts in the spring. Very easy to do, no attendence laws, no mandatory hours.

Homeschooling is legal in EACH and EVERY one of the 50 states, don’t let any school offical tell you different.

Kathy in FL – at 10:21

It is also important to know the laws in your state on home education because 9 will get you 10 that public school officials don’t. They only know what they think they know. So, just like in any other situation, KNOW YOUR LEGAL RIGHTS.

Even the most well-meaning can be wrong. Read the actual statute. If you don’t understand it, talk to people who do.

And while the HSLDA has helped a lot of home educators they are also a bunch of busy-bodies that can cause more harm than good. Ever so often they try to come into Florida and monkey with the homeschool laws here. Usually enough homeschoolers voice their desire to be left alone and they take their efforts elsewhere. We have a fine balance here and we try and maintain that. We have some very good lobbyist types keeping an eye out on upcoming legislation that might effect home educators.

Long story short … prepare ahead of time for any eventuality and you won’t get caught with your pants down.

silversage – at 10:21

OK, Illinois is green on the chart to your link. “States requiring no notice: No state requirement for parents to initiate any contact” Does that mean I don’t HAVE to have a letter of intent?

..and yes I printed out the summary page for my prep folder. :-)

Carrey in VA – at 10:32

Kathy in FL at 10:21

Your right of coarse, the HSLDA has some other agendas. I should have stated that I don’t care for the HSLDA and I think their “service” is and un-necessary expense pawned off on new/scared homeschoolers. But they did have a really nice “outline” of the state laws, and it’s a good place to start.

Silversage - at 10.21

Go to google and look for “Homeschooling support groups Illinois” Here’s a list of groups I found on a quick search http://www.home-school.com/groups/IL.html

Pixie – at 10:34

Silversage - you need to become familiar with the laws for your state. Google for homeschooling groups in your state and they will be able to help you.

In CT, you are not required to submit a notice of intent (no matter what they tell you) so Illinois may be the same way. Leaving a public school to homeschool is no different than removing your child to have them attend a private or parochial school. Also, in CT there is no requirement that a portfolio or testing be submitted to the town or state at any time. As KathyinFla said, if these are your rights - know them.

Some states, New York is one example, have much more defined homeschooling laws, and more is required in the way of notification and testing. However, no matter how onerous the paperwork, that is the only thing that changes. Homeschooling is legal in all 50 states as long as you follow the correct procedures.

BTW, I agree with KathyinFla’s comments on the HSLDA. It is important to point out too that the HSLDA’s reach is sometimes further than its grasp, and their website contains factual errors on the requirements for homeschooling in several states, including my own. The best thing is to contact homeschool groups active in your state for the latest and most accurate information.

cottontop – at 11:03

I live in upsate New York. I homeschooled my olderst child, four years. You have to send a letter of intent to the school, they will send you a package containing the laws of homeschooling, rules and regulations, what yor responsibilities are. I had to submit my curriculum agenda for each subject they require to be taught. I had to submit quartely reports, when notified, I had to take my child to the school for state testing, and they sent me the results.After each quartely reort, the princpal sent their reply, letting me know if things were acceptable, or not. I was fortunate to have the full cooperation of the principal/school. From second grade on, you have to take the child to the school to be tested(which is free), or pay a representative to come to an unbiased place, like the local library, to give the test.

You will have to already have materials already bought for each child. when it’s pandemic time, and we are taking our kids out of school, that is not the time for go shopping for homeschool material. I had to supply my own books/materials, which was very expensive. The school did not supply me with anything. The are not obligated too.

Petticoat Junction – at 11:19

There is a useful page on the various homeschooling legal issues here. There are links to all the state laws down the left plus many articles on various legal considerations, several written by lawyers.

The rest of the site is worth a glance, too. It’s one of the first I encountered 10+ yrs ago when we began…a veritable grand-daddy among homeschool internet sites. <g>

(Apart from legal issues, another site we’ve used for years and LOVE is Easy Fun School …even parents who aren’t homeschooling at the moment will find lots of neat projects & activities. You might find some that look like they’d catch your child’s/family’s interest during SIP and get the directions printed & materials lined up now.)

cottontop – at 12:13

all of this is pertaining to a pre-flu pandemic. There is no way public schools are going to be able to handle the massive paper overload of parents homeschooling their kids. Especially in larger cities such as Dallas, ect. I don’t see it. Besides, if there is a quarantine, and mandartory “stay at home”, who’s going to be at the school to sort through all the paperwork, and write up all those thousands of letters?

The best thing to do, is go to your child’s school, ask your question, and don’t leave until you are satisfied with their answer. We can only sit behind this computer for so long. Websites don’t answer everthing.

I am not worried about school laws during the pandemic. Unless my child or their school releases a statement saying what is to be expected of the parents as far as maintaing contact with the school, I’m not going to worry about it, and you can bet that when the school is turned into a make shift hospital because your neighbors and friends are sick, I don’t think their going to worry about my progress report, or the thousands of other reports. If they close the schools due to a nation wide pandemic, their closed.

DebPat 12:22

Also, be aware if you have a child in special education, there may be extra hoops to jump through. It will be very hard for me to pull my child at just the right time. I have at least some of the services he needs. My school district is very vindictive and getting him back into those services will probably require me hiring a laywer from at least 3 hours away from my home.

Pixie – at 12:36

I agree with you, Cottontop. I think that some people are curious about the current laws as they may be thinking about what might happen if they, here on Fluwikie, are in the position of feeling the children should be taken out of school and the school district disagrees (at that point). Schools will probably be, unfortunately, a lagging indicator rather than a leading one, particularly so for any who read the threads here.

Kathy in FL – at 13:13

cottontop – at 12:13

Be careful with that thinking. They can and will get people on “ignorance of the law is no excuse.” It is a loophole frequently used to catch people who don’t educate themselves and keep up to date on their rights.

Water restrictions; educational laws (public, private, other); age at which children legally allowed to stay home alone and/or legally allowed to babysit; curfew hours … ad nauseum.

There are many laws pertaining to these issues on the books. Most of us will never encounter anyone enforcing them; however, if something happens at your home and your child is hurt you can bet someone is going to pull something out of their hat and back it up with a law on the book.

Authorities are notorious on picking and choosing when and how they will enforce some statutes.

Carrey in VA – at 13:33

cottontop – at 12:13

I also would be very careful about that kind of thinking. I don’t beleive schools will close soon enough. I think they will stay open till the federal or state governments issue orders otherwise.

If you decide to pull your child out of school before TPTB think you should, it only makes sense to make sure to do it correctly, and legally.

DebP – at 12:22

I’m assuming that you think taking a child with a learning disability out of school would be harder because the school gets more money for a LD child. My suggestion is to become VERY well informed on YOUR rights as a parent. Do exactly what the law says to do, and nothing more.

My school district has a new superintendent this year, and my “acceptance” letter stated what tests I could and COULDN’T use for the end of the year. This is something they have no say over, the law states I can use ANY nationally standardized test. Simply printing the homeschooling laws out, and highlighted the appropriate passage and mailing it in was all I did. If they wish to push the issue further, I will simply state that if they would like to continue on this path then they can have thier lawyers send me something official. I figure that any lawyer with sense will explain the law to them before it goes any further.

Don’t let the school bully you into thinking you can’t or shouldn’t bring you kids home to school. Your child just might blossom being home and being taught by someone who truely loves him/her rather than someone who gets paid to teach them. My eldest is LD and has grown so much in these 4 years of homeschooling, it’s really amazing.

crfullmoon – at 14:04

“don’t leave until you are satisfied with their answer”

(Hey, now there’s an idea to maintain forum speed… SIP: Sit In Principal’s office? Ugh.)

LauraBat 14:29

I would also double check with another resourece, such as your state’s education department, etc. That site lists CT as a “no notice” state, but a friend who started home schooling this year had to complete some paper work. Even to pull my kids from our public school to a private school I had to fill out lots of forms. Like Carrey said, if suddenly lots of people are pulling their kids out they can’t follow up on everyone. But better to have your ducks all lined up ahead of time vs a time of greater uncertainty.

Carrey in VA – at 15:50

LauraB at 14:29

Someone further up said that the site I listed had some wrong information. So yes its a great idea to look these laws up on your own. (the information was correct for VA though)

Some school districts ask for more information than the laws says is needed. Just cause the school asks for it, doesn’t mean you have to, or even should, give it too them. Giving the school more than they have a lawful right to ask for, only makes it harder on others. The schools start to expect the “extras”.

Look the laws up, and make sure you understand them completely. Then check them again just before you pull your kids out to make sure they haven’t changed.

And for school work, check ebay. If you buy used and don’t need it, your almost certian to make your money back relisting them. Thats what we do.

frankiew – at 16:20

Another good source of cheap books for curriculum is the Goodwill store. I have actually found textbooks, workbooks (not written in) and teacher editions for next to nothing, about 50 cents each.You can also use outdated history books, the public school system re-evaluates their curriculum about every 5 yrs, and orders new types of books to teach out of, since history never change,you can use the old books for that subject. I did pay full price for the math curriculum, simply because my 11 yr. old tested out advanced and there wasn’t any books that were used that he had not already used in public school. Going to your local library usually has a used book section for sale, at least my local one does, and I have purchased SAT,GED, and GRE prep books for as little as .25 cents each, this has infor that can be taught and actually be useful if and when school starts back.

30 September 2006

Muttcats – at 02:48

We are in our third year of homeschooling. My children have never attended public school. One thing I am certain of is that homeschooling will be the last thing on our minds if a pandemic hits. We may do some lessons to pass the time but it won’t be a priority and I probably won’t even bother to keep the logs for the state. Then, I live in a state that is highly unlikely to mess with me or any other homeschooler.

LauraBat 06:51

One thing I’m concnerned about, however, is my ability to home school. I love my kids to pieces, but I’m not cut out to be a teacher. They are so spread out in age (10, 6 and 3) and I can’t imagine trying to juggle different lessons, etc. I go crazy when they are doing a craft together! And if they are together for too long they start going a little crazy - okay, a lot crazy. How do you home schoolers do it?! Do the lessons for different ages (especially with a very young one around who won’t sit longer than two seconds and gets into everything his siblings are doing) and keep your sanity being home with home all day?

cottontop – at 07:42

Pixie at-12:36

I”m leaving my child in school until the absolute last minute, but what I’m saying, is once the kids are taken out, schools will close, and we will not have to worry about compling with laws about homeschooling. But as I said, talk to your school principal, or anybody else. State your case, whatever. If I have to go to the school for something, I can not afford to let someone brush me off, because they don’t know what’s going on, and it’s happened. Heck, the janator knows more at times than the people there. Sad. I generally use the dean of students. He’s not the most knoweledgable, but he tries.

No doubt schooling will have to continue at home. But as I stated earlier, I’m waiting until the very last minute, when it is announced the schools will be closing. As this flu becomes more widespread, the school systems will pick up their preparing, and notified us, (it’s unfortunate they wait until the last minute). I’m just not going to panic and pull my child from school. I’m keeping things as is for my child, until her school gives me information about closing. That’s why I”m not worried about laws, and rules. For parents who want to take their child out “before closing”, then yes comply with all the laws, and regulations. Homeschooling is a challenge for any parent. Be prepard with this mentally.

Carrey in VA – at 09:03

Cottontop

I sure hope your thoughts are right, and that the schools will close early. I just don’t see it happening. There’s too much money involved to send them home “too early”.

You said you’ll wait till the flu is more wide spread does that mean when h2h become effective? Or when people in the US start dieing? Or when people in your town start dieing? If you wait too long after confirmed effective h2h your playing games with your lives.

What if the father of that kid that sits next to yours in math class just came back from China on business? And while he was there he thought it would be neat to see one of those village market places. Then he came home and shed virus all over his family. That kid likes to chew on his/her pencil, and your kid forgot theirs and asks to borrow one.

I’m so glad I don’t have to worry about when to pull my children out of school. One less thing to keep me up at night.

cottontop – at 09:50

Carrey in VAat−09:03

We’ve all stated the when TSHTF we are pulling our kids out of school. Don’t you think that is too late as well? At what point does TSHTF?

Carrey in VA – at 10:14

I think that when effective H2H transmission is achieved ANYWHERE in the world, that is the time to pull kiddo’s out of schools. If you want to call them in sick for a few days to watch and see what the virus is doing it would better than letting them sit there next to Suzy, who’s dad just came home from China.

At what point does TSHTF? I think everyone has their on TS has now HTF point. And I don’t think those points are the same for everyone.

My TS has HTF point is when the virus starts killing people here in the US. Watching H2H become effective in China or Indonesia will be the equivalent of watching the sh*t fly through the air on a collision coarse with the fan. I would want my kids home save before it actually hits.

crfullmoon – at 10:24

When people start coming down sick/dying of a similar-sounding thing, same time, few different locations, that we can hopefully connect the dots about before the officals will want to announce anything, let alone school systems that don’t seen to get that this may be a flu that might be killing the ammounts of staff/kids their plans talk about being absent before they will close schools…

Believe me, people travel; they don’t cancel vacations or business trips just because a few human cases of H5N1 just popped up there - and no offical tells them not to go, nor not to go right back to school/business, after returning home, either.

A survey of where everyone has been in the last week in any given town might turn up some surprises, (for people who think “bird” flu is something that will take weeks or months to get “over here”). Just afraid so many people travel, and mingle so much regionally, that one of those first spots might be right around here, and all over, before we know to get out of the way.

Eduk8or – at 10:58

IOWA

I’ve put a link in the Iowa Preppers thread on Sept 30th, detailing more information about the requirements for homeschooling in Iowa.

KimTat 11:28

Eduk8or – at 10:58 Thanks

05 October 2006

Edna Mode – at 09:04

Carrey in VA – at 10:14

Agree 100%.

crfullmoon – at 10:24

Every point you make is absolutely valid.

The dad of one of my daughter’s classmates is in Mumbai, India on business right now.

My son’s 2nd grade teacher (from last year) is going to Japan on a Fullbright Scholarship in November.

My own sister announced (despite her deep knowledge of the threat posed by H5N1) that she’s taking a trip to a “protected place” in India in December. Haven’t heard from her since I pointed out that 24-hour roundtrip on an airplane with international strangers breathing recirculated air ain’t what I’d call “protected.”

My husband’s doctor is going to China in December.

And these are the ones off the top of my head. Our town has so many people who travel to Southern Asia it’s crazy.

My kids are coming out as soon as I see a pattern of efficient H2H anywhere, and DH won’t be too far behind.

crfullmoon – at 10:12

I only hope we can know when in time.

Carrey in VA – at 16:02

Crfullmoon - at 10:12

me too

11 October 2006

BUMP – at 13:11

06 November 2006

crfullmoon – at 09:35

If the schools won’t close pre-emptively, maybe parents will have to pre-emptively homeschool…

Carrey in VA – at 16:08

like now! ;-) lol

Carrey in VA – at 16:08

like now! ;-) lol

Kathy in FL – at 16:25

While I am a huge homeschool proponent, it is important to remember that homeschooling does not fit every childs’ needs. That is the beauty of having multiple opportunities for your child’s education … whether that be a traditional classroom setting, magnet school, private school, montessori, independent study, and all the various methodologies associated with homeschooling from school-at-home to unschooling.

What will be difficult will be when parents are forced to make those kinds of choices with no real warning or preparation and research.

The school systems need to be more open to alternatives and not so fearful that they will lose all their students, funding, reason for existence by making those alternatives public and readily available.

I dislike the NEA’s stance on parents not being the best teacher for their children … and that is actually a kind interpretation of their remarks … but we may all have no choice in the event of a pandemic if we want to retain educational continuity for our children.

The question to me is will such organizations at the NEA refuse to recognize what continuity we have tried to create or will the kids have to suffer such organization’s overt stance against home education.

07 November 2006

LauraBat 22:00

Kathy - I support the right to homeschool 100%. I don’t do it myself because I KNOW I am not a good enough teacher for my kids. I don’t have the ability, patience or tolerance to do it. Obviously things would change if TSHTF, but hopefully that would be a temporary need. I have seen lots of great cases where homeschooling was a unqualified success. But there are examples out there where it is not. That is probably part of the reasoning behind NEA’s stance - how many homeschooling failures are acceptable to them? If they encourage it there may be more failures. And, obviously, three’ the fear of loss of control, loss of jobs, etc. Of course, if public ed continues its slippery slope downward I’ll bet more and more parents will at least consider it as an option.

08 November 2006

Kathy in FL – at 11:59

LauraB – at 22:00

Oh definitely. There are failures at all levels of education … and in all institutions of education. Some failures occur when parents try and duplicate school at home … when it was that type of methodology that was problematic for the child to begin with. The child might need less structure and more creativity/challenge in addressing education.

You also have parents that really believe and personally thrive at the other end of the spectrum … “unschooling” … but they fail to recognize that their child needs more structure.

Then you have all of the different learning styles … auditory, visual, kinectic. Addressing some of these issues is very challenging. I know, I have five children and each one of them are different. I have one that was reading full Dr. Suess books when she was barely four and one that is mildly dyslexic. I have one that has no trouble with math, and another than is completely frustrated by the concepts of fractions.

Some parents just kind of give up … not any different than many classroom teachers used to do when they would label a child.

The thing that strikes me is that I’ve been doing this about 12 years. If I can forsee the challenge of homeschooling during a pandemic setting, even with all of my resources and experience, how much more difficult will it be in homes without the knowledge or desire to plan ahead for such an eventuality.

Education will be one medium to use to keep the kids’ lives approaching “normal” during a pandemic. It will provide structure for those who need it. It will also take discipline … both on the part of the student and on the part of the parents … to maintain this structure.

I also worry about crediting the children with the work that they do while “organized” education grinds to a hault.

Minneapolis Mom – at 13:01

As a third year homeschooling mother, I believe IMHO it will be too difficult to pull school kids just before a pandemic hits (whenever that is). Here’s why: the biggest change in your house will be for you as the parent(s). Your paradigm will shift drastically and you will have an enormous adjustment (but worth it!)Sifting through curriculums takes time, so does setting up materials for muliple age children. So does establishing “normalcy”. In the face of a pandemic, the effort is too much too late. Everyone will be trying to top out bank accounts to lay away more supplies. And most children will remain in school so that parents can accomplish this.

 Like other prep items, the smart will want to “try out” the prep of homeschooling before they really need it.  By the way, eveyone should seriously examine the moxy it will take to pull your children from school.  If you truely believe a pandemic will come, good grief, or any other rocky times we may be in for, one would be smart to do their “homework” now.
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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / The Worst Case Scenario Denial As an Adjustment Reaction V

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: The Worst Case Scenario Denial As an Adjustment Reaction V

31 August 2006

Monotreme – at 09:31

Part IV here.


Leo7 – at 02:00

dd:

Key govt figures are listed before paramedics and policeman on the current level of who gets vaccine. These essential people aren’t stupid and the grapevine will be way ahead of any 2% BS. But you are right-they will be lured-I mean lulled by placebo vaccines and antivirals to man their stations unless the money starts to rain down and as some have stated “get on a flu war footing.” Otherwise—all stations will be playing the don’t worry be happy song.

anonymous – at 02:05

when the Chinese and others are starting to produce vaccine, do you think they will keep it for their citizens ? When they get enough money for it, they will sell it.

Tom DVM – at 08:52

“But you are right-they will be lured-I mean lulled by placebo vaccines and antivirals to man their stations unless the money starts to rain down and as some have stated “get on a flu war footing.”

Leo, ;lacebo’s by result by design or intention…or unintentionally wby delivering pharmaceuticals that you think work but don’t.

Please continue the fight here…it is an honourable one and you are exactly correct in this…won’t matter to my family because WE WON’T BE TAKING EITHER OF THEIR ‘MAGIC PILLS’.

I am also very afraid of a human vaccine out of China which will make things worse rather than making them better or leaving them the same…thanks.

Tom DVM – at 08:53

Sorry, It should have read…Leo, placebo’s may result by design and intention…or unintentionally by delivering pharmaceuticals that are supposed to work but don’t.

Monotreme – at 09:40

From the previous thread:

dd – at 09:38

Tom, ineffective or outright harmful pharmaceuticals are a big concern. Unless I hear from someone I would trust (certainly no one in government, or affiliated with the pharmaceutical companies), I won’t be taking any magic pills either. I guess I’d consider it, only if someone like you (who’s skeptical like me, but scientifically more knowlegable) endorsed them!

anonymous – at 09:41

Monotreme - I confess I am behind on reading this thread, but I wanted to ask you a question. Last night I watched Charlie Rose interview the Head of the N.Y. Health Dept. and I can’t remeber his name, but the upshot of what he said is that he did not believe that we were going to be hit by a pandemic…but of course everyone should prepare. Could he be one of the resaons that NYC is not being told anything?

anonymous – at 09:41

Monotreme - I confess I am behind on reading this thread, but I wanted to ask you a question. Last night I watched Charlie Rose interview the Head of the N.Y. Health Dept. and I can’t remeber his name, but the upshot of what he said is that he did not believe that we were going to be hit by a pandemic…but of course everyone should prepare. Could he be one of the resaons that NYC is not being told anything?

seacoast – at 09:41

Sorry, the above post was from me.

seacoast – at 10:13

OK, I just read your answer to this on another thread. Bird-dog’s assessment was right on, the guy could could not look Charlie in the eyes and was one slimy dude!

02 September 2006

gharris – at 23:52

bump

03 September 2006

Monotreme – at 00:28

anonymous – at 09:41

Hopefully you saw the NYC thread wherein I address your question.

seacoast – at 02:36

Monotreme - 9:41 Yes thank you, I finally got to that thread and read your assessment of the Charlie Rose interview. I agree and thought that Charlie actually gave him a look that said “I don’t believe your saying that”. I watch him all the time, and after awhile you get to know what someone may be thinking by their facial expressions and he looked at that unsavory character like he couldn’t believe that he saying the pandemic was “unlikely”. I bet the ******* has a get-a- way home way up in upstate N.Y. on the Candian border.

lugon – at 05:57

It might be useful to have some deaf people doing face reading on this; maybe selecting two sections, one where he’s definitely saying something that’s true, and another one where it’s not so obvious.

I don’t know the person involved, just being a bit naughty here! :)

lugon – at 06:11

The above coment on face reading was about the tv interview. Mislocated it - sorry.

Monotreme – at 10:24

lugon, I think anyone who watched the Charlie Rose show could tell that Mr. Rose was taken aback by Dr. Frieden’s outrageous claim. It was that obvious. Equally obvious was how uncomfortable Dr. Frieden was with that line of questioning.

lugon – at 15:28

Ok, then. Such a video might then find its way to youtube.com - no?

Monotreme – at 15:33

lugon – at 15:28

I would love to see the 5 minute discussion appear on youtube.com, but I don’t know if it would be legal. Charlie Rose sells DVDs of his programs. You can only watch them via internet for 2 days, then they are gone.

04 September 2006

blackbird – at 03:50

bump

anonymous – at 05:12

you could run it through a voice-recognition program and then
publish the text without video. Charlie Rose probably has no
copyright on the plain text.
Text is also better for quoting to forums like fluwiki.

Monotreme – at 08:20

The Charlie Rose show sells transcripts. I don’t know if it would be legal to buy one and then post the section relating to panflu for discussion.

btw, the show can be purchased for 99 cents here.

The relevant part is only about 5 minutes long.

06 November 2006

crfullmoon – at 09:48

bumping and quoting from previous thread:

Monotreme – at 18:52

Personally, I have a bad feeling about how TPTB are handling this. I think they are hoping the problem goes away. If it doesn’t, they have decided to write off large chunks of the American poplulace. Expect to hear “Sacrifices had to be made. Too bad about the East Coast. Too bad about Los Angeles. Too bad about Detroit.” etc,

If there is too many convincing warnings before the disaster, that will make them look worse in the post-pandemic period.

As a number of people have suggested, the WHO and CDC are being set up as the fall guys for the blame game. “They didn’t say it would be that bad. They told us 2% would be the worst it could be.”, etc. I can hear it now. Note, this does not let the WHO or the CDC off the hook. Sometimes the sacrificial goat really is stupid.

Leo7 – at 00:09

I keep asking who will be the government officials also known as TPTB who are the first in line for vaccines and antivirals. No official numbers but it’s staggerring when you project from the feds, military, then state and local and regional officials.

Folks, I’m starting to get a really bad feeling. Unless the vaccine Anon 22 mentions is power jumped into circulation in the next couple of weeks there won’t be anything left for the millions of essential workers also known as emergency worker patsy’s, I mean citizens. I can’t help thinking we will be persuaded to man our stations by placebo vaccines and antivirals. Now before you folks want to fight with me, please recheck the name of this thread.…(snip)…

And I won’t be persuaded when a vaccine miraculously appears either unless I’ve seen a ramp up and actually building of facilities. It’s been established flu vaccines have been faked as well.

So, the alternative is becoming more clear. It takes time to make the vaccines and antivirals for everyone and I see no signs this is a committed decision by TPTB. If this bug does jump out in late 06 or early 07, there won’t be enough of these meds to filter down to even essential workers. We are on our own, entirely. Gather antibiotics, oral hydration and SIP as long as possible.

Tom DVM – at 08:56 (snip)

…I know if we get a pandemic that the ones at the top end whether it is .5% or 5% or 10% we are going to lose no matter what we do.

I want the pharmaceuticals stockpiled so that I do not observe young parents at home with mortallity ill children and no healthcare and no medical advice and no antibiotics…

…the only thing that will bump up production of a variety of drugs is a ‘war footing’…

…so how about it Dick Thompson…would it kill you to make a comment on behalf of those young parents with children who are going to be helpless?

08 November 2006

crfullmoon – at 11:31

“To do nothing to battle the next pandemic is unacceptable, but to promise protection against an outbreak is irresponsible,”

~Dr.Osterholm

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Preserving Our Paper Products

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Preserving Our Paper Products

08 November 2006

Therese – at 08:47

Okay, I have tons of toilet paper and I want to store them in the attic, but how can I store them so as not to attract mice that will want to bed in it? I thought of perhaps storing them in groups of ten in a big garbage bag with peppermint oil inside, but I don’t know really what to do. I don’t want to find all my hard earned toilet paper in a dainty nest of mice one day! Please preppers, what do you recommend?

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 09:02

I think it’s Duct Tape brand that makes a tape that stays sruck in heat or cold or high humidity….you could put in plastic tubs and seal…..less likely to get into it that way, but mice CAN chew plastic if they think there’s a reason to.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 09:03

sruck=stuck

Annoyed Max- Not mad yet – at 09:54

put out some glue traps, they sell them at all hardware stores. They last forever and work great to keep all kinds of critters away “or permanently attached” to where you dont want them. I take them and cut them flat I seem to find the rodents are more apt to run over them flat than go through the tunnel thing your supposed to make out of them. As a bonus they are non toxic just dont get them stuck to your shoes or you will be sorry :)

crfullmoon – at 10:01

Mice will chew through plastic bags that don’t even have food in them…

(glue traps seem a bit cruel)

if you aren’t feeling well, will you and yours be able to access the attic?

Kathy in FL – at 10:06

Well, my post was eaten by the wiki … let’s try it again.

Heat will degrade paper products as will the extra humidity in an attic area.

Here are three options that we are going to use once we can stock that much:

1. Under beds in the house. It is unusued space that is easy to pack.

2. In the very tops of closets. That is usually dead or unusued space and can be a signficant addition to your prep space. With paper products being light weight, you don’t have to worry about them falling on anyone either. Depending on the height of the closet interior, that can actually be a rather significant amount of space.

3. Removing one panel off of the box springs, filling with paper products and then restapling the panel in place … or replacing the panel with a cotton sheet so that it is heavier duty. A twin size box springs can hold a lot of toilet paper … imagine how much a full, queen, or king size box springs can hold. And if you have more than one bed to use for this purpose that is even more.

Annoyed Max- Not mad yet – at 11:03

Well maybe its cruel, but I would rather be mean to the vermin in my house then wipe my naughty bits with the phone book.

lohrewok – at 11:11

Is there nothing that damned vermin can’t get into? Geez louise, now I have to go pack up the t.p. in the garage.

Kathy in Fl-I checked my closets. There is a boatload of space there! Thanks.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Dummies Corner

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Dummies Corner

30 October 2006

uk bird – at 14:37

I’m sure some of us have questions we don’t like to ask because we think we should know the answer.

So here’s mine (well the first one anyway).

Did the 1918 flu, H1N1 and it’s kiddies stop killing people in bulk because they were partially immune (from having caught it) or because it mutated and the payload wasn’t as severe (ie no cytokine storm). Or if both, which is most significant. In other words, if the 1918 flu strain was re-released would it be as deadly?

Feel free to sigh and direct me to the wiki :-)

Dennis in Colorado – at 15:01

The main theory I recall was that mutating viruses follow the rule of “regression to the mean.” Two extremely tall human parents do not necessarily have extremely tall offspring. The ‘randomness’ of heights tends back toward the mean. So it is with viruses … as H1N1 continued to mutate, it tended back toward the mean of “somewhat less virulent” than the most-nasty from it took in 1918. Of course, that would be combined with the fact that many people had been exposed to H1N1 (but not made clinically ill), so they were less-likely to become ill during subsequent waves. There were probably other reasons, but those are the two I recall seeing in my reading.

Dennis in Colorado – at 15:02

most-nasty from = most nasty form.

cottontop – at 16:28

Does anybody think that global warming is causing these viruses to be more visible, and more deadly?

Bluebonnet – at 16:46

Cottontop - see below and the answer is yes.

Days of Darkenss - AD 535 - 546

Each day, the morning sunrise is taken for granted. Based on the laws of science, it is expected that the sun will rise each day from east to west. Yet, the question must be asked, “what would happen if the sun didn’t rise?” This was the case from AD 535 through AD 546, with the darkest days in AD 536.

“A mighty roar of thunder” came out of the local mountain; there was a furious shaking of the earth, total darkness, thunder and lightning.” A Chinese court journal also made mention of “a huge thunderous sound coming from the south west” in February 535. And as a Hopi elder had said, thousands of miles away, “When the changes begin, there will be a big noise heard all over the Earth,” a low rumble reverberated across the planet.

“Then came forth a furious gale together with torrential rain and a deadly storm darkened the entire world,” read the Pustaka Raja Purwa or The Book of Ancient Kings, a buried Indonesian chronicle.

“The sun began to go dark, rain poured red, as if tinted by blood. Clouds of dust enveloped the earth… Yellow dust rained down like snow. It could be scooped up in handfuls,”5 wrote The Nan Shi Ancient Chronicle of Southern China, referring to the country’s weather in November and December 535.

Darkness followed making the day indistinguishable from the night. “There was a sign from the Sun, the likes of which had never been seen or reported before. The Sun became dark, and its darkness lasted for about 18 months. Each day, it shone for about four hours and still this light was only a feeble shadow. Everyone declared that the Sun would never recover its full light again. The fruits did not ripen and the wine tasted like sour grapes,”6 John of Ephesus, a Syrian bishop and contemporary writer, wrote in describing the unending darkness. “The sun became dim… for nearly the whole year… so that the fruits were killed at an unseasonable time,” John Lydus added, which was further confirmed by Procopius, a prominent Roman historian who served as Emperor Justinian’s chief archivist and secretary, when he wrote of 536, “…during this year a most dread portent took place. For the sun gave forth its light without brightness, like the Moon, during this whole year… and it seemed exceedingly like the sun in eclipse, for the beams it shed were not clear.”7 “The sun… seems to have lost its wonted light, and appears of a bluish color. We marvel to see no shadows of our bodies at noon, to feel the mighty vigor of the sun’s heat wasted into feebleness,”8 Flavius Cassiodorus, another Roman historian wrote. Reports even indicated that midday consisted of “almost night-like darkness.”9

A cold then gripped the world as temperatures declined. “We have had a winter without storms…”10 “a spring without mildness [and] a summer without heat… The months which should have been maturing the crops have been chilled by north winds,”11 wrote Cassiodorus. “When can we hope for mild weather, now that the months that once ripened the crops have become deadly sick under the northern blasts? …Out of all the elements, we find these two against us: perpetual frost and unnatural drought,”12 he added,13 while in China, it was written, “the stars were lost from view for three months. The sun dimmed, the rain failed, and snow fell in the summertime. Famine spread, and the emperor abandoned his capital…”14 Other Chinese records referred to a “‘dust veil’ obscuring the sky” while Mediterranean historians wrote about a “‘dry fog’ blocking out much of the sun’s heat for more than year.”15 The sun was so ineffective that snow even fell during August in southern China and in every month of the year in northern Europe.

“Then came drought [or floods], famine, plague, death…”16 “Food is the basis of the Empire. Yellow gold and ten thousand strings of cash cannot cure hunger. What avails a thousand boxes of pearls to him who is starving of cold,” the Japanese Great King lamented in 540, while Cassiodorus added, “Rain is denied and the reaper fears new frosts.”17 And “as hard winters and drought continued into the second and third years [in Mongolia and parts of China, the Avars] unable to find food, unable to barter food from others…” began a 3,000-mile trek to new lands to save themselves and their families from annihilation and starvation.18

During this sustained period of unseasonably cold temperatures from 535–546 when the sun was ineffective and blotted out, plant life experienced stunted growth – tree rings from this period show little or no growth – and many crops failed. According to climatological research presented in 2001 by Markus Lindholm of the University of Helsinki, Finland, Abrupt changes in northern Fennoscandian summer temperatures extracted from the 7500-year ring-width chronology of Scots pine, the “most dramatic shift in growing conditions, from favorable to unfavorable, between two years, took place between A.D. 535–536” in Europe and Africa.19 His findings were corroborated by Mike Baillie of the University of Belfast, who based on his tree ring chronologies, some from specimens preserved in bogs, that dated back thousands of years stated, “It was a catastrophic environmental downturn that shows up in trees all over the world.20 Temperatures dropped enough to hinder the growth of trees as widely dispersed as northern Europe, Siberia, western North America, and southern South America.”21 Ominously, the cold brought rats, mice and fleas that normally lived outdoors, into peoples’ homes in search of food and warmth because of the decimation that was occurring to the animal population in the suddenly hostile, chilly dark environment. Deadly bacterium, Yersinia pestis was then transmitted to people and their pets.

In the ensuing unending darkness, chaos reigned as “whole cities were wiped out – civilizations crumbled.”22 Wars raged across Europe and the Middle East, prosperous societies were stripped of sustenance and wealth, economies collapsed and huge swaths of populations succumbed to disease and plague. “With some people it began in the head, made the eyes bloody and the face swollen, descended to the throat and then removed them from Mankind. With others, there was a flowing of the bowels. Some came out in buboes [pus-filled swellings] which gave rise to great fevers, and they would die two or three days later with their minds in the same state as those who had suffered nothing and with their bodies still robust. Others lost their senses before dying. Malignant pustules erupted and did away with them. Sometimes people were afflicted once or twice and then recovered, only to fall victim a third time and then succumb,”23 Evagrius, a 6th century Church historian wrote. In their final stages, people “generally entered a semi-conscious, lethargic state, and would not… eat or drink. Following this stage, the victims would be seized by madness… Many people died painfully when their buboes gangrened. A number of victims broke out with black blisters covering their bodies, and these individuals died swiftly.”24

Within seven years, due to the ivory trade, in which ships brought rats and sailors infected by the plague, Europe and the Middle East were being ravaged. In Constantinople alone, “they had to dispose of over 10,000 bodies a day, week after week, throwing them into the sea off special boats, sticking them in the towers of the city wall, filling up cisterns, digging up orchards. Soldiers were forced to dig mass graves… chaos and pandemonium [reigned]. Constantinople stank for months after months [from the decaying bodies that were stuffed in towers and stacked or dumped in streets]… [and] when the number of dead reached a quarter of a million, Constantinople officials simply stopped counting.25

An account by Procopius went as follows: “At first, relatives and domestics attended to the burial of the dead, but as the violence of the plague increased this duty was neglected, and corpses lay forlorn narrow in the streets, but even in the houses of notable men whose servants were sick or dead. Aware of this, Justinian placed considerable sums at the disposal of Theodore, one of his private secretaries, to take measures for the disposal of the dead. Huge pits [that could hold up to 70,000 corpses] were dug at Sycae, on the other side of the Golden Horn, in which the bodies were laid in rows and tramped down tightly; but the men who were engaged on this work, unable to keep up with the number of the dying, mounted the towers of the wall of the suburb, tore off their roofs, and threw the bodies in. Virtually all the towers were filled with corpses, and as a result ‘an evil stench pervaded the city and distressed the inhabitants still more, and especially whenever the wind blew fresh from that quarter.’”26

Out of fear, many people refused to venture out of their homes — “…houses became tombs, as whole families died from the plague without anyone from the outside world even knowing. Streets were deserted…”27 Furthermore because of this fear and/or the affects of suffering from high fever, scores of people hallucinated, seeing apparitions and visions. And with the vast pestilence and destruction all around them, many could not help but wonder if the apocalypse as described in Revelation 6:8 “And I looked, and behold, a pale horse; and his name that sat on him was Death”28 was upon them.

It was so bad that some thirty years later, Pope Gregory The Great wrote of Rome, “Ruins on ruins… Where is the senate? Where [are] the people? All the pomp of secular dignities has been destroyed… And we, the few that we are who remain, every day we are menaced by scourges and innumerable trials.”29 In its height, the plague “depopulated towns, turned the country into a desert and made the habitations of men to become the haunts of wild beasts”30 while in Africa, major ports ceased to exist and agricultural practices all but vanished.

“[And] as [others] left the stricken city [wearing identification tags so that their bodies would be buried if found] they took the plague to towns, villages and farms throughout the empire. [To compound matters, with trade and commerce virtually nonexistent, food became scarce leading to the starvation of others].31 Untold millions perished,”32 with an estimated death toll of 100 million, the worst pandemic in human history.

“Scandinavian elites” in feeble desperation, “sacrificed large amounts of gold… to appease the angry gods and get the sunlight back.”33 In Mesoamerica and the Andes, cities “of perhaps one million people” emptied out “practically overnight” through starvation and disease. Peoples turned on their gods and goddesses, violently smashing their images and burning temples and towards the end, they viciously fought each other having become “savage and warlike.”34

When the sun finally came out, overcoming the affects of a massive volcanic eruption, even though it hadn’t really been gone, minimizing the adverse affects and saving living creatures from complete extinction, the world was forever transformed. Countries and civilizations had ceased to exist while others emerged as the days of darkness “weakened the Eastern Roman Empire; created horrendous living conditions in the western part of Great Britain; contributed through drought… to the fall of the Teotihuacan civilization in Mexico; and through flooding to the collapse of a major center of civilization in Yemen;”35 while major upheavals occurred in China and France. More than half the world’s population when taking Europe, Asia, Africa, and the Americas, into account, along with countless numbers of plants and animals, had perished illustrating the fragile relationship that exists between people and nature.

uk bird – at 16:58

Or maybe we just know more about the monsters that have always been out there in the darkness waiting for us (including global warming)? Mankind has had a nice hiatus during the golden age of antibiotics and vaccines. It’s coming as a shock to discover things like TB didn’t go away. they’ve just got bigger and badder.

Who knows how many times mankind has dodged (or not dodged) a bird virus in the past?

I wonder if the prevalence of viruses in birds stem from their ancient ancestory (dinosaurs)?

uk bird – at 17:00

Dennis in Colorado – at 15:01 The main theory I recall was that mutating viruses follow the rule of “regression to the mean.” Two extremely tall human parents do not necessarily have extremely tall offspring. The ‘randomness’ of heights tends back toward the mean. So it is with viruses … as H1N1 continued to mutate, it tended back toward the mean of “somewhat less virulent” than the most-nasty from it took in 1918. Of course, that would be combined with the fact that many people had been exposed to H1N1 (but not made clinically ill), so they were less-likely to become ill during subsequent waves. There were probably other reasons, but those are the two I recall seeing in my reading.

Is this why they’re hoping H5N1 must become less deadly if it gains efficient H2H?

Dennis in Colorado – at 17:15

Dennis in Colorado – at 15:01 The main theory I recall was that mutating viruses follow the rule of “regression to the mean.”

uk bird – at 17:00 Is this why they’re hoping H5N1 must become less deadly if it gains efficient H2H?


I’m not sure. The “regression to the mean” rule would apply more to subsequent waves than it would to changes in efficiency of transmission. I am not fully convinced that a virus must become “less deadly” as it moves to efficient H2H; the only requirement I see is that the human hosts have to remain alive long enough for the coefficient of infectivity to remain above 1. However, there are others here who are better versed in virology than I — and I would welcome their input.

SuzyQWYat 17:27

One thing about back in 1918 they didn’t have T.V, computers, cellphones to communicate to the world as fast as now. By the time most learned about what was in store for them it was to late, they were exposed. Now days, this is my opinion, that more will be able to survive better and we have better medical know how then back then. There is a huge majority of people out there that wouldn’t survive a week at home under any other disaster, man made or natural. I prep not just for the bird flu but for anything else that might come along. Anything can happen at anytime and most think I am totally wacky. I tell them I don’t care what they think and I care enough to take care of my family. I have been down and out after college and fished out of a stream by my house to survive from paycheck to paycheck and I never want to go thru that or see my children go thru that. I can afford to stockpile months or even a year, I am very fortunate and still have money to spare. But I tell the ones that say they can’t afford it that they can’t afford not to. If you have a super Walmart in your town, you can get very inexpensive food that you can survive on for just a few bucks. I tell them instead of buying that 12 pack of pop go in and see how much healthy food you can buy for that or buy non-perishable for that. It just takes a little sitting down and figuring it out. I also tell them to make a list of all the thing they use in a day and figure out what they could live with out and what they can’t. Planning ahead can mean life or death and I pick life.

anon_22 – at 17:44

There is some evidence from the work of Taubenberger that the PB1 gene, part of the polymeras complex which is also important for pathogenesis, is rather sensitive to human immune pressure. ie it tends to mutate quite quickly once the virus begins passing from human to human, and tries to adapt to the human immune system.

As a result of this adaptation, you may find some attenuation of its virulence. This would partially account for increasing transmission and decreasing virulence. The 1957 and 68 pandemics both involved acquisition of a new PB1 gene. JKT thinks this may make the reassortant virus gain a competitive advantage over other circulating strains, so that it dominates the next flu season, ie causing a pandemic.

However, this is just one model of how a pandemic virus is formed. We don’t know exactly what the mechanism was for 1918, but the different genes including PB1 were certainly all novel to humans. Whether in such a context, ie in 1918, the same attenuation occurs and whether it is for the same reason is still open to debate.

The following slide from one of JKT’s talks shows that the W shaped curve which was characteristic of 1918 but not of 57 or 68 persisted for a couple more years before flattening out to the normal pattern, which would suggest that the attenuation process was not completed till long after the time that we would consider ‘pandemic’.

anon_22 – at 17:46

uk bird,

THAT was definitely not a dummies’ question. It’s a difficult question that even the top scientists are still working on.

:-)

Green Mom – at 18:02

Geez-I thought y’all were going to ask dumb questions…..

blackbird – at 18:07

This is interesting, because supports the reports I’ve read that there continued to be outbreaks and deaths past the period of time we (I) associate with the 1918 pandemic.

When does it end?

I am referring the future more than the past.

31 October 2006

crfullmoon – at 08:55

Bluebonnet – at 16:46 (shudder) Is there a link for that?

I guess we must all have an ancestor that got their genes through that, or we wouldn’t be here, eh?

Malachi – at 09:22

Could someone explain in laymens terms what this new strain means,been off the wikie for a few days and my ppf is shooting up just by the tone here but I wish to understand why?I know I am on the right thread,dummies questions,only mine definately seems the dumbest!

crfullmoon – at 09:30

Which “new” strain? ;-) There’s so many…(now I feel dumb! sorry, Malachi !)

I think from the recent IOM conference the figure of a pandemic with 2% cfr taking as many under age 19 as all other causes combined over two normal decades has given a handle we can get the public to know which end to take hold of.

Bluebonnet – at 11:02

crfullmoon - I watched a PBS (I think?) special this weekend called “Catastrophe.”

See the link below:

http://tinyurl.com/y4oet8

JR – at 11:23

Some assorted dumb questions that I’ve been sitting on for awhile:

Is there any way H5N1 could combine with TB?

Why didn’t HPAI make it into N. America as was predicted by the migration patterns? I thought we were expecting its arrival by way of birds migrating out of Siberia (where, if I remember correctly, BF was fairly endemic) sometime this fall. It seems so strange to me that the virus traveled so quickly throughout Asia, Africa, Middle East, Europe, etc., and then just seemed to stop.

Ok, keep in mind that this is the place for dumb questions as you read this next one: Is there any possibility that a mild wave of one of the several strains of H5N1 could be circulating right now in the India, Pakistan, Nepal areas? I ask this because it seems like an awful lot of people are sick - including many health care workers, the CFR is apparently higher than is usual for dengue or chick (can’t spell that), a lot of sick people are testing negative for these diseases anyway, and no one seems to be testing for H5N1 even though BF has been found in these regions. By the accounts I’ve read, it seems like some of the doctors and health authorities over there are not entirely sure what they’re dealing with and even some press accounts are reporting it as a “mystery” virus - rather than dengue/chick/etc. I know that dengue, chick, and lots of other viruses are commonplace in these areas, but under the circumstances, wouldn’t it make sense to test any “mystery” virus just to rule out the possibility of it being H5N1?

cottontop – at 11:44

JR- It is my understanding that H5N1 can not combine with TB. I think TB is a bacteria. I had wondered about this at one point, and I think I even asked it, (no dummies corner then).

nsthesia – at 12:21

I watched a show last night that discussed the Delta 32 genetic mutation that protects exposed individuals from developing HIV/AIDS. It was hypothesized that this mutation developed as a protection many years ago in response to some massive immunological assault. Investigation showed that there are many individuals (they identified some in the UK) who are descendants of victims of the Black Plague who carry this mutation.

It seems that the human immune system has evolved in some individuals to fight off tremendous immunological attacks. The show focused on a hemophiliac in the 80s who never developed AIDS in spite of receiving infected IV clotting factor. Mention was made that knowledge of this genetic mutation was being utilized to develop medications/treatments for AIDS, “bird flu”, etc.

It helps explain why at least some people will survive even the most heinous infections. Yay for human evolution!!!

uk bird – at 12:34

Malachi – at 09:22 Could someone explain in laymens terms what this new strain means,been off the wikie for a few days and my ppf is shooting up just by the tone here but I wish to understand why?I know I am on the right thread,dummies questions,only mine definately seems the dumbest!

http://tinyurl.com/tcn88

I found this link to be a useful one for the new strain, it goes into more detail than many.

It’s worth reading in it’s entirety.

I took the article to mean that due to imperfect vaccination a new strain had evolved that didn’t kill poultry in large numbers but was still deadly to humans. Since China only checks for H5N1 in cases where birds die in close proximity, then there may be cases of BF in humans going undetected.

“As far as I know all 20 human cases recognised since November 2005 were caused by this virus,” Guan told New Scientist.

[snip]

Worryingly, the antibodies being used to develop human vaccines for H5N1 have been induced from 2004 strains of the virus – these antibodies do not recognise the Fujian strain. This means the current experimental pandemic vaccine would not work against any pandemic virus that emerged equipped with Fujian surface proteins.

Orlandopreppie – at 12:40

We keep hearing that the current version of H5N1 has not made the mutations necessary for efficient human to human transmission, but Webster is saying that it’s moving that way. My stupid question/s, on the viral DNA do they KNOW what this mutation will look like? Or is it a big mystery that needs a pile of bodies to indicate? I just wondered how far they were with the mapping of the virus and understanding what they are seeing. Are there more of the little molecular blobs on the slide now than there were a year ago? I haven’t heard much the past two months about official test results or viral mutation and it worries me.

anon_22 – at 13:02

To answer Orlandopreppie’s question first, No, we don’t know what mutations are necessary. We can make some educated guesses, based on what mutations are most frequently found as differences between human and avian strains. For example, from the Influenza Genome project thread, you can see that Taubenberger’s group found 10 changes that are consistent with human vs avian type, while the Taiwan study found at least 6 of the same changes. Unfortunately, the first part of that thread is not available. I’ll get pogge to restore it later,

Secondly, its not surprising that current investigational vaccine strains are not protective against the new Fujian strain. This happens every year with seasonal flu, and it only confirms to us despite its unusual nature, H5N1 does have a lot of the characteristics of any other flu virus as well. This should be a wake-up call to those who think that H5N1 is not likely to become efficient in H2H infection, simply because it isn’t at the moment.

Thirdly, with regards to the new strain, imperfect vaccination is certainly likely to affect selection, but I don’t personally think it is the major cause. The reason why I say this is that there is far from uniformity among the different poultry vaccines used in a very big country, so if the ‘imperfectness’ of any vaccine was to drive evolution in a particular direction, there’s no reason that this direction should be exactly the same everywhere. What is more likely is that this new strain is naturally more ‘fit’ to start with, and any vaccination that lowers the survival of circulating H5N1 strains would favor the most ‘fit’. ie it has to be the most fit first, then it gets the advantage from the weakening of other strains.

The reason why this may be important is we must remember not to be too dogmatic in our beliefs, otherwise something else will happen and we won’t be able to interpret events accurately, if we buy into our beliefs too much.

crfullmoon – at 15:24

(Bluebonnet, thanks for the link! …”For many years, humans forgot their glorious past and huddled in a state of ignorance and fear. Scientists have uncovered evidence from around the world that the early Dark Ages may have been triggered by an actual event that occurred around 535 A.D. Science writer David Keys believes that the cause was a natural phenomenon of cataclysmic proportions.”…)

And Anon22, that was an interesting slide at at 17:44 …

Texas Rose – at 16:20

Another, but different, dummies question.

I know I’m not going to word this right or clearly but here goes: While I realize each pandemic is different and AV can’t really be considered the same as the 1918 flu, do those whose families survived the 20th century pandemics perhaps have an edge that those who lost family members don’t?

I’ve wondered about this since I heard someone say they had been freaking out until they checked their geneology and discovered none of their family had contracted any of the 20th century pandemics, or if they had, none had died. The person said it reassured him knowing he had inherited their immune systems and felt it would hold him in good stead if he contracted this AF.

Is that a reasonable assumption?

Caveat: Even if it were, I’d still prep.

Bluebonnet – at 16:21

Anon_22 - thank you so much for your response! FINALLY something even I can understand! Even though I work in cancer genetics (research wise) I still have a difficult time understanding some of the “science talk.”

Thanks again for putting this in terms we laypeople can understand.

Texas Rose – at 16:34

Note to self: Read whole thread before posting.

Looks like I asked a variation of questions asked before.:D

Orlandopreppie – at 16:35

Thank you very much for answering my question. I think I’ll go buy more rice.

heddiecalifornia – at 16:57

I have a question —

   If a regular seasonal flu shot is only good for six months or a year, if a pandemic arrives, and we get flu shots for avian flu, will be continue to need to get shots every six months or so (like boosters for kids for some of the other common illnesses vaccines) or will only one shot be enough? 
    I am thinking that we could require shots every six months, and if the vaccine manufacturers take six months or more to make millions of ‘first injections’ , we will never have quite enough shots to go all around.  Would we have to take the flu shots every year for the rest of our lives? 
anonymous – at 17:08

If someone contracts avian flu and takes tamiflu and they survive, will they have just as much immunity (to the same avian virus) as a person who did not take tamiflu and survived?

02 November 2006

bump – at 17:41

04 November 2006

MO Molly – at 10:02

I have a new dummy question. If we SIP with a full tank of gas in the car and do not go anywhere for three months, or so, will the gas in the car still be good? Or will we have to add Stabil into the car’s tank at the onset of the SIP?

PBQ – at 11:11

Good question. I’d like to know that too.

crfullmoon – at 13:33

bump

uk bird – at 14:05

Dummies round up

Questions answered, as far as I can tell

uk bird – at 14:37

cottontop – at 16:28

Malachi – at 09:22

JR – at 11:23

Texas Rose – at 16:20

Many thanks to those who answered… now all I need to do, is work on understanding the answers.

Unanswered so far.

JR – at 11:23

Why didn’t HPAI make it into N. America as was predicted by the migration patterns? I thought we were expecting its arrival by way of birds migrating out of Siberia (where, if I remember correctly, BF was fairly endemic) sometime this fall. It seems so strange to me that the virus traveled so quickly throughout Asia, Africa, Middle East, Europe, etc., and then just seemed to stop.

Ok, keep in mind that this is the place for dumb questions as you read this next one: Is there any possibility that a mild wave of one of the several strains of H5N1 could be circulating right now in the India, Pakistan, Nepal areas? I ask this because it seems like an awful lot of people are sick - including many health care workers, the CFR is apparently higher than is usual for dengue or chick (can’t spell that), a lot of sick people are testing negative for these diseases anyway, and no one seems to be testing for H5N1 even though BF has been found in these regions. By the accounts I’ve read, it seems like some of the doctors and health authorities over there are not entirely sure what they’re dealing with and even some press accounts are reporting it as a “mystery” virus - rather than dengue/chick/etc. I know that dengue, chick, and lots of other viruses are commonplace in these areas, but under the circumstances, wouldn’t it make sense to test any “mystery” virus just to rule out the possibility of it being H5N1?

heddiecalifornia – at 16:57

I have a question — If a regular seasonal flu shot is only good for six months or a year, if a pandemic arrives, and we get flu shots for avian flu, will be continue to need to get shots every six months or so (like boosters for kids for some of the other common illnesses vaccines) or will only one shot be enough? I am thinking that we could require shots every six months, and if the vaccine manufacturers take six months or more to make millions of ‘first injections’ , we will never have quite enough shots to go all around. Would we have to take the flu shots every year for the rest of our lives?

anonymous – at 17:08

If someone contracts avian flu and takes tamiflu and they survive, will they have just as much immunity (to the same avian virus) as a person who did not take tamiflu and survived?

janetn – at 14:07

MO Molly, I checked with my local authority on the subject AKA my DH. He said yes you have to add the stabil. He also said gas tends to start to break down after about a month, although it would still work, albiet not as well.

anon_22 – at 14:39

JR – at 11:23

Why didn’t HPAI make it into N. America as was predicted by the migration patterns? I thought we were expecting its arrival by way of birds migrating out of Siberia (where, if I remember correctly, BF was fairly endemic) sometime this fall. It seems so strange to me that the virus traveled so quickly throughout Asia, Africa, Middle East, Europe, etc., and then just seemed to stop.

That is a good question! Again not a dummy one at all, cos you know what? Even the experts don’t know why, they are still scratching their heads.

The whole idea of H5N1 being spread by migratory bird is to some people still not proven. I think there is reason to believe migratory birds are partly responsible. However, the issue is , what species? We know that migratory patterns are highly species specific.

As Taubenberger said in his Kinyuon lecture (which btw is absolutely worth watching, at least once, if you want to understand pandemic flu), there are 10010 species of birds, of which about 100 are known to be hosts to influenza A viruses. However, all the avian flu viruses that we have characterised ie studied, have come from only a handful of species. So we don’t know, for example, what is the true extent of H5N1 host range in birds.

Suppose H5N1 is in fact only able to infect a few species right now, and these don’t have migratory paths that touch N America, then you won’t get them in America. What is even more interesting is that it is not even in Australia, considering how close it is to Indonesia.

anon_22 – at 14:40

Albert Einstein, in his old age, when asked how come he was so smart, said “you know what? I kept asking all those childish questions that most people gave up on long ago.”

anon_22 – at 14:46

Ok, keep in mind that this is the place for dumb questions as you read this next one: Is there any possibility that a mild wave of one of the several strains of H5N1 could be circulating right now in the India, Pakistan, Nepal areas? I ask this because it seems like an awful lot of people are sick - including many health care workers, the CFR is apparently higher than is usual for dengue or chick (can’t spell that), a lot of sick people are testing negative for these diseases anyway, and no one seems to be testing for H5N1 even though BF has been found in these regions. By the accounts I’ve read, it seems like some of the doctors and health authorities over there are not entirely sure what they’re dealing with and even some press accounts are reporting it as a “mystery” virus - rather than dengue/chick/etc. I know that dengue, chick, and lots of other viruses are commonplace in these areas, but under the circumstances, wouldn’t it make sense to test any “mystery” virus just to rule out the possibility of it being H5N1?

This one needs only a short answer. Yes, its possible, but we don’t know. And I won’t characterize that as mild until its over. And yes, it would make sense to test it, but it is also easy to be armchair detectives with all hypothetical resources infinitely and instantaneously available!

anon_22 – at 14:53

heddiecalifornia – at 16:57

I have a question — If a regular seasonal flu shot is only good for six months or a year, if a pandemic arrives, and we get flu shots for avian flu, will be continue to need to get shots every six months or so (like boosters for kids for some of the other common illnesses vaccines) or will only one shot be enough? I am thinking that we could require shots every six months, and if the vaccine manufacturers take six months or more to make millions of ‘first injections’ , we will never have quite enough shots to go all around. Would we have to take the flu shots every year for the rest of our lives?

I’m not sure I understand the question but I will try to answer it anyway. Each flu vaccine contains the appropriate strains for that season, or at least what the scientists guess would be the right strains. The strains might have mutated by the time you contacted it, in which case you would still get the flu but it would be milder cos of partial immunity, ie the mutation from the vaccine strain is not expected to be huge, generally.

Generally, there is no need to get another shot in six months, cos the shot is still the same one, and even though the immunity may have worn off some, it is not completely gone. And the important point is this, seasonal flu is seasonal. So you take your flu shot at the beginning of the flu season, the rest of the year, you are at lower risk cos its not the flu season.

But if there is a pandemic, then there is a huge antigenic difference between the strains in the flu shot and the pandemic strain. So the seasonal flu shot will not be enough to protect you from the pandemic virus. Some would hypothesize a very mild protection from the N1 of H1N1, but we really don’t know.

No, no one has to take the flu shot for the rest of their lives, its their choice. :-) But it is important for elderly people to take it cos of their increased risk of complications.

anon_22 – at 14:54

nonymous – at 17:08

If someone contracts avian flu and takes tamiflu and they survive, will they have just as much immunity (to the same avian virus) as a person who did not take tamiflu and survived?

Yes

uk bird – at 14:56

A similar question - does ‘pandemic’ refer to a large quantity of cases or a large quantity of severe cases? ie could there have been a pandemic (in the last 30 or so years) that went unoticed because the symptoms were so insignificant?

anon_22 – at 14:58

pandemic = an epidemic that affects the whole world

it doesn’t have to be severe, The 1968 flu pandemic was hardly more severe than the worst seasonal flu in terms of mortality, but it was a pandemic cos it was an epidemic of a new virus that spread all over the world,

anon_22 – at 14:59

could there have been a pandemic (in the last 30 or so years) that went unoticed because the symptoms were so insignificant?

No, from the characterisation of flu viruses, we pretty much know that the last one was 1968.

anon_22 – at 14:59

genetic characterisation

uk bird – at 15:01

Thankyou!

He thinks I’m crazy too – at 16:35

What is the best anti-diarrhea Rx with BF?

Prepping Gal – at 18:27

MO Molly – at 10:02 I checked with my husband (we had an automotive shop for 25 years). If you have left the gas cap on securely and leave tank full and it is a newer vehicle ( 1990 & newer) your gas will be fine without any treatment; after 6 months use stabil.

kychas – at 18:58

you need to put the Stabil in the gas tank and you may need to get a solar panel to put on the dash board to keep the battery up (this will work if the cig lighter socket has power all the time, or you can put it on the battery with some long wire) you can get these from alot of sorces, ebay for one. they go for about $30 - 40 retail or $10 to 20 on ebay ( i have 3 that VW puts in there new cars from the factery that for some reason the dealers remove.) people will put these on tractors to keep the batterys up in barns that don’t have power when not in use for long term. also you may put some mouse poison in the engine compartment to keep the mice out and to keep them from damaging the wiring, etc.

lohrewok – at 20:11

Question: My kids, 12 & 15 have never had flu, nor have they ever gotten flu shots. Would they be more at risk getting H5N1? Or less able to fight it off?

Also: I filled my gas tank up in May and was still using that tank at the end of Sept. and it ran fine. shows you how much I drive. LOL

05 November 2006

anon_22 – at 14:08

lohrewok – at 20:11 Question: My kids, 12 & 15 have never had flu, nor have they ever gotten flu shots. Would they be more at risk getting H5N1? Or less able to fight it off?

It’s hard to say whether they are more at risk because of this one factor alone, because H5N1 causes such a severe infection that we don’t know how much prior immunity to seasonal flu would make a difference. Read my 15:55 post on this thread for a discussion and some speculation about the role of the seasonal vaccine on H5N1 infection. You have to make up your own mind, but for me I am getting my kids to take the flu shot every year for a while till we figure out more solutions to the H5N1 problem.

lifeisgreat – at 14:45

Just as a suggestion to “my fellow dummies,” I follow anon, monotreme and tom dvm around this site daily and my knowledge base increases. I’m still not sure what I know but I know more than before I started visiting this site daily. Thanks so much, one and all.

JR – at 14:48

Many thanks to Cottontop and anon_22 for ansering my questions.

janetn – at 22:34

Why did WHO come to the conclusion that the Ginting cluster in Indo last spring may have had a genetic componant. Secondly if we find that in fact there is either a genetic predisposition or immunity to H5 how would this impact a possible tx. Do we in fact posses the ability to use genetics to fight viral or bacterial infections or is this technology still way in the future.

Love this thread!

06 November 2006

heddiecalifornia – at 00:32

Anon 22 —

  Thank you for your answer, it clarifies the situation. 

What I was thinking was if the H5N1 strain remains seriously deadly, would a flu shot once a year be a good idea. I gather that it would be.

  And, again, if it hangs around in one form or another, through different vectors, and maintains that deadly combination, a person would want to get a flu vaccination every year, as supposedly the vaccine companies would be picking the appropriate strains expected that year, which may or may not be the h5n1 virus or its mutations. 
   Again, thank you — 
anon_22 – at 02:52

heddiecalifornia – at 00:32

The strains for the annual seasonal flu vaccine are not picked by the vaccine companies, but by the WHO based on their worldwide flu surveillance. They make the recommendations and the companies follow them. They have to, otherwise no government would buy them.

anon_22 – at 03:10

janetn – at 22:34 Why did WHO come to the conclusion that the Ginting cluster in Indo last spring may have had a genetic componant. Secondly if we find that in fact there is either a genetic predisposition or immunity to H5 how would this impact a possible tx. Do we in fact posses the ability to use genetics to fight viral or bacterial infections or is this technology still way in the future.

That particular cluster is unique in that despite 8 people being infected over several weeks, and the infected people slipping away from hospitals and hiding, and dead chickens etc, the only people actually infected were related to each other genetically. The people in the same family who had exactly the same exposure but were not genetically related, eg in-laws, none of them were infected. And no neighbours etc.

This possible genetic predisposition is comforting currently because it may explain the very high CFR, and it may explain why so few people are infected, and therefore one may infer that it is quite hard for H5N1 to jump the species barrier to any random person, only those with some genetic traits. Now this is all speculation, we really don’t know, and of course it is only comforting if you do not have those traits!

Currently we do not have the ability to use this information for treatment at all!

anon_22 – at 03:24

This possible genetic predispposition has to be overcome by the virus before it becomes pandemic. ie if a pandemic does happen from thie H5N1 strain, the genetic predisposition would disappear, and everyone would be susceptible.

anon_22 – at 03:25

Now I have a question, does anyone know whether marriage between blood relatives is common in Indonesia? I know that it is common in other places eg Pakistani communities in the UK/

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/newsnight/4442010.stm

Ima-prepper – at 03:46

After Anons question is answered I have a dumb one too that id love to know the answer too.

Why do all flus originate from Asia or China proper?

anon_22 – at 04:22

Ima-prepper – at 03:46

Why do all flus originate from Asia or China proper?

Ha! Wouldn’t we like to know!

Not just Asia, but south China specifically.

It is so specific that I think there has to be a very distinct ecological reason, maybe a particular animal host that we don;t know about. But I must stress this really is just my own personal speculation. I haven’t found anything on it. I hope someone can tell me.

Z – at 05:45

Why didn’t HPAI make it into N. America as was predicted by the migration patterns? It’s my opinion that it did. Possibilities:

~Frequency is very small and testing hasn’t revealed it, either because they didn’t grab the bird that has it, or because the testing isn’t always reliable.

~Testing has revealed it, but disclosure hasn’t happened.

~Some kind of human component to the mutation, maybe actually requiring a domestic chicken to transfer, and that hasn’t happened yet. The probability of that in Alaska is small because of few poultry farms and households with chickens. If it happens, it’ll be at Point MacKenzie Correctional Farm, the largest flock of chickens and turkeys in Alaska.

Just late-night thoughts to be taken or left.

Gasoline storage: Remote fuel storage and tank farms in northern regions typically get bulk fuel deliveries only a few times a year. This is the available fuel for a length of time. Gas and diesel stores pretty well with a few considerations - condensation and octane.

Condensation forms on the walls of any sized tank, causing water in the fuel. To avoid and correct, store tanks full, not partially empty. Isopropyl alcohol-based products to remove water are effective and used routinely in snowmachines and trucks in bush Alaska. You can see water in gas and diesel and you can pour it off in a bucket; even better, pour it through a chamois. Add that to your preps.

Stored fuel loses roughly one octane per month of storage. Nothing you can do about it. An ‘octane’ is part of the chemical makeup of carbon compounds in petroleum. If you bought a tank of gas and the pump said ‘minimum 87 Octane’, it works out that in 7 months, the gas is 80 octane and marginal. Engines like octane. A conventional car engine is designed to burn a particular minimum octane, so it doesn’t run well with less octane. Usually that’s when you hear little men with hammers…

There are expensive octane additives and octane “stabilizers”. Sometimes they work great, sometimes they cause other problems. Race cars, sports cars, etc., have a dedicated minimum octane that that engine requires. Same thing with snowmachines and motorcycles. So you don’t want to drive a high-performance car; you’ll want the old Corolla. Don’t use stored fuel in a Ducati.

Aviation gas is high octane. Leaded fuel is sometimes a higher octane; depending on what it is. Older vehicles like lead very much - it lubricates and engines run better. So get a chamois and some additives - for moisture and for octane preservation. [I’m not sure if we’re allowed to say brand names here.] Fill the container to the top to store. Find unoxygenated fuel if you can, but it’s not that big of a deal.

crfullmoon – at 07:07

(Note to self; will Z my snowblower and lawn mower; they’d be better cared for, since I have more experience typing hunt-and-peck than minutes spent on small engine maintenance; how embarrassing Hm; finally a reason for highest-octance gas; keeps useful longer in storage?)

diana – at 10:20

Whatever happened with the research that a Japanese man had initiated. Namely some people have a genetic predisposition. I have forgotten the exact reason, something like the virus needs to go deeper into the lungs to manifest itself, and these individuals have the genes that allow this to occur. I have always believed that there was a genetic predisposition, but this has been on instinct not on factual proofs.

SaddleTrampat 11:07

Not only do flus originate in Asia and China, specifically, but so did chickens. Maybe that has something to do with it.

tjclaw1 – at 12:04

Ok, here’s my dumb question. How is it that low path H5N1 is showing up in many states where only a few hundred samples have even been tested, yet NONE has shown up in Alaska, where over 16,000 samples have been taken. Statistically, it doesn’t stack up.

anon_22 – at 12:18

diana – at 10:20

Whatever happened with the research that a Japanese man had initiated. Namely some people have a genetic predisposition. I have forgotten the exact reason, something like the virus needs to go deeper into the lungs to manifest itself, and these individuals have the genes that allow this to occur. I have always believed that there was a genetic predisposition, but this has been on instinct not on factual proofs.

I think you are referring to Kawaoka, who basically said that the reason why avian flu is difficult to spread human to human is because it attaches to receptors deep in the lungs preferentially. The abstract is here

This, however, only explains receptor binding, it doesn’t explain how come some people are more likely to get infected. In any case, transmissibility and pathogenisis depends on many more factors than receptor binding, including certain characteristics of the polymerase genes (of the virus)

diana – at 12:19

I have a feeling this is going to be the most popular thread as we all have questions, and all feel like dummies in this particular issue. SO I am posting this here. I have no stock in CVS but I patronize the store. Today I got my Pneumonvax 23 shot there. They have an new service which they call the minute clinic. Only opened last week. Staffed by a Nurse Practitioner You can go to minuteclinic. com. or call 1 866 389 2727, to check this out further. I don’t know that every CVS has this service. A private room stocked with different vaccines from Hepatitis A and B to Polio. Flu and pneumonvax of course. I was in and out. It serves patients 18 and older for common illness and skin conditions and some testing procedures. Certainly no substitute for your own personal physician, but as an adjunct.It is open during weekdays from 8a.m to 8 p.m. and On Saturday till 4p.m….I hope this is not spam, but so many of you seem to have trouble getting pneumovax and have expressed frustration. Hope this helps those who have CVS in their neighborhoods.

FrenchieGirlat 12:51

I have had several bad genius spells these days, so please may I ask some dumb questions?

Several weeks ago I made the comment on one of the Indo threads that I was puzzled by the reporting of journalists mentioning whether the sick/dead chickens were “thoroughbred” or “ordinary”. We did not find a really satisfying answer.

There is a sizeable difference: the genetic makeup of thoroughbred chickens is necessarily narrower than that of ordinary chickens. What I understand is that they are now saying that previously it was the thoroughbred chickens that got ill, but now its _also_ the backyard ordinary chickens. Let me quote the piece of article on the Indonesian thread that made me say this (http://tinyurl.com/ydesh7): quote - pugmom – at 14:19 - Kalau originally often infects the thoroughbred chicken, now most only to the chicken not the race that was maintained behind the house that most also not terkandangkan - Unquote.

This reminded me of Karo and also the Turkey cluster. WHO which keeps saying there was somehow a genetic link in these families, and another report (can’t remember if it’s WHO, I think it is), that women get the illness more than men.

Also, today, in the news thread, DennisC – at 09:52 quotes an Indonesian article (http://tinyurl.com/y7v8u3) which says: Quote - “No husbands and wives are infected; it’s all brothers and sisters, mothers and children,” says Ginting. She and others believe there must be a genetic component to susceptibility to the disease. …… World Health Organization in which researchers said human-to-human transmission appears to be confined to genetically related people. People infected with the bird flu variant common in Indonesia seem to be able to infect only other people who carry the same genetic trait. In other words, birds give it to people, but people can give it only to blood relatives - Unquote

It makes me think: Karo, Turkey, human thoroughbreds. Female thoroughbreds.

So if the virus is going to evolve in humans as I understand it has in chickens (excerpt of article above), i.e. from thoroughbred to ordinary (non-pedigreed) chickens, the next human targets will be more genetically diverse, yes? If so, it means that the virus could evolve from thoroughbred humans (i.e. genetically connected, through either descending blood lines, or gender blood lines) to non-pedigreed humans (i.e. any ordinary human, male or female, without family blood links, and both genders).

Other question, do we know whether those chickens which died at the beginning of the bird epidemic in Indoneisa were first just thoroughbred hens and offsprings, or thoroughbred (fighting) cocks and offsprings? Probably not, but if anyone noticed, reading all these Indo articles?

Is this logic? If this is logic, are we witnessing the first baby steps of the virus to adapt to the whole chicken population, and, at the same time, to the whole human population without distinction to blood lines or gender?

diana – at 13:02

Could H5N1 human and bird and beast varients be passed through the female line? Like some diseases of the blood?

FrenchieGirlat 13:21

From DennisC – at 09:52 on the news thread http://tinyurl.com/y7v8u3 - In Indonesia, virus spreads among blood relatives

“People in the West don’t always appreciate how horrible the H5N1 virus is, says Irna Safrina, head of central disease control for the Karo district of Sumatra. Bird flu is not an easy sickness or death. It starts with a high fever that keeps rising, immune to the effects of anti-fever medication, she says.”

“Next comes difficulty breathing. People usually succumb within two or three days. And even when they’re on ventilators to pump air into their lungs, patients remain aware of what’s happening. “They were all conscious until they died, in a lot of pain,” Ginting says.”


And we’re piling anti-fever medications which may be of use against ordinary flu, but evidently not against bird flu. So should we reopen a thread to think about other, alternative, natural, anti-fever medications, or have we already beaten the horse dead on that one?

I understand that many medications which can induce a state of unconsciousness or near-unconscious states are reputed also to depress the respiratory system, which is probably not a wanted effect, and I’m sure these Indonesian doctors must have tried their very best to offer relief.

In the West, do we have some other medicines better suited to such a situation that would make a patient comatose without compromising his lung function?

And if there is really no hope for the patient, is it necessary to have him/her endure such a painful death?

Should we discuss morphia and its derivates, scopolamine availability?

Should hospitals start thinking about this question, availability of such medicines, when to use, etc.?

Should we, as individuals on our own, start thinking what to do if our loved ones suffer in this way?

diana – at 14:04

Didn’t DrDaves airplane companion open that door. Euthanasia?

diana – at 14:05

Somehow I feel like Bluebeards last wife. Every door leads to another horror.

A former Lurker – at 14:09

FrenchieGirl – at 12:51 Could it be that in the beginning of all this…that the thoroughbred fighting chickens were passing the flu via blood rather than through other means? Fighting chickens Spar with other fighters as part of their training. I’m sure they must have some injury even with out being in a full fledged Fight….A big thank you for all your posts, I admire the way you look at things and draw your own conclusions. You’re one smart cookie.

A former Lurker – at 14:15

My question… How long after a person dies of flu in their home, say a neighbor, before it would be safe to go inside? I would hope that if I contracted the flu and died that someone could come in and get my preps without the risk of infection.

anon_22 – at 14:42

FrenchieGirl – at 12:51

Very interesting questions/speculations. And I use the last word not in a derogatory, but in a good way, speculation gives us new thinking/

I think the ‘no husband and wife infected’ thing illustrates what I said earlier about genetic predispostion. Whether the evolution in birds from thoroughbred to ordinary is accurate we do not know, but I don’t think that is necessary in chickens at all, cos you see all sorts of chickens infected in so many countries now.

But the question is still the same, is the virus likely to evolve from only infecting people with certain genetic traits to being able to infect everyone. I suspect the answer is yes, it being a flu virus, it is likely to go in that direction. How long that might take is anybody’s guess. But if the genetic component is stronger than we realized before, we may have a bit more time than we thought.

The next question is what might this genetic component be and how common is it? Since rare genetic traits (specifically recessive ones) tend to manifest more frequently in families with frequent inter-marriages, I decided to investigate that a little.

I spent some time today looking at the incidence of consanguineous marriages ie people marrying first cousins and other blood relations, cos that will concentrate some rare genetic traits. I was surprised to find that consanguineous marriages are very common in many countries, eg in Africa, south Asia etc.

Unfortunately there is not a lot of data on Indonesia, but Egypt for example, which has been having increasing cases, has an overall rate of 29%, with some areas up to 69% of all marriages being consanguineous! And that is not taking into consideration those just generally marrying people from the same village or tribe over many generations.

I don’t have a correlate between that and the human cases, cos I’ve only just started looking, but the rates in China varies tremendously between the majority Han tribe, where it is very low (close to the west) and the minority tribes. Data for the Lizu in Sichuan, for example, gives 58% for urban and 32% for rural areas, and Sichuan has had 3 out of the last 20 cases that I looked up in the WHO data.

I guess I haven’t answered any questions, just given everyone more to think about!

anon_22 – at 14:49

Now I’m just brainstorming, so please don’t flame me. And I’m likely to be wrong here. But here goes.

If the genetic component is a rare recessive trait that gets concentrated with repeated intermarriage, and if the vast majority of people in China (Han people constitute 92% of the population) and Europe rarely intermarry within a family, would that explain the supposedly low incidence in China and the absence of cases in Europe?

Very intriguing….

watcher – at 14:56

ON the news thread, there is a report that the Chinese have identified the NS1 gene as being responsible for making H5N1 so deadly. I thought that was someting that we’d known for a while (late 2004?). The news report also said, however, that now that they’ve identified the gene, a vaccine is on the way. Am I missingsomethig, or is the vaccine part just spin?

uk bird – at 15:01

anon_22 – at 14:49 Now I’m just brainstorming, so please don’t flame me. And I’m likely to be wrong here. But here goes.

Strictly no flaming in Dummies corner :-)

watcher – at 14:56 ON the news thread, there is a report that the Chinese have identified the NS1 gene as being responsible for making H5N1 so deadly. I thought that was someting that we’d known for a while (late 2004?). The news report also said, however, that now that they’ve identified the gene, a vaccine is on the way. Am I missingsomethig, or is the vaccine part just spin?

To add to this, is the NS1 gene just responsible for the pathogenic properties in just chickens or in humans too?

TreasureIslandGalat 15:25

It kinda irks me to keep hearing about the genetic predisposition of people to get H5N1. It is an accurate statement, but I think it gives the wrong impression.

Right now H5N1 still hasn’t obtained the capacity to become easily transmissable amongst people. We know that, and we also knwo why that it. It has to do with those 2,6 and 2,3 receptor preferences. Currently the virus still prefers one of them. Humans have both of them, but the ones that H5N1 really likes and is “best working with” are the ones in our lower lungs. -most of our lower lungs. Some people may genetically have a more frequent occurrence of these in their upper airways while most of us have fewer there. It is up there that the virus has to be replicating so that it can be coughed or sneezed out so that it can hopefully find a way into the next human victim that likewise has a higher than normal population of these specialized cells in their lungs too that can be infected.

A family lineage may have a physical set-up in their lungs that is most conducive to infection and passing on the virus to others of like make up. Genetics dictate how your cells are in your lungs, so technically this is a genetic predisposition to catching H5N1 right now.

BUT, even in these people, their cell make up in their lungs is still predominantly like that of other humans and currently contains mostly the cells the virus is not yet well adapted too. The problem with that is that each infection can potentially help the virus become better adapted to affecting the cells that are most common instead of just selecting the “bird-like” cells that also exist in the human lung. In fact, once this happens, and the virus learns to prefer the human cells more, the pandemic can start and these people that WERE in the “most in danger” group, will probably be the humans with the genetic predisposition to avoid the true pandemic when it comes… for the same reasons that right now they are catching it more. -their cell make up in their lungs is just a little different.

TreasureIslandGalat 15:28

The “wrong impression” I refered to above was that “no need to worry about a pandemic, only certain, rare types of peopel can even get it anyway. -so I don’t ever have to worry that I will catch it.”

anon_22 – at 17:58

watcher – at 14:56

ON the news thread, there is a report that the Chinese have identified the NS1 gene as being responsible for making H5N1 so deadly. I thought that was someting that we’d known for a while (late 2004?). The news report also said, however, that now that they’ve identified the gene, a vaccine is on the way. Am I missingsomethig, or is the vaccine part just spin?

I only read the abstact, but this is about avian H5N1, ie how the NS1 gene might be responsible for virulence in chickens, and I assume the discussion of vaccine is also about avian vaccine. I can’t get access right now, but will in a few days. i will post again if there is anything more than this.

anon_22 – at 18:03

TreasureIslandGal,

Actually, you are absolutely right. But science includes calling a spade a spade. If there is an issue of genetic predisposition, we’ve still got to report it, and analyze its significance.

What conclusion you can draw depends on how you use the totality of all information, not just this one piece. In terms of risk assessment, personally, I have already factored this genetic predisposition into my own threat assessment a while back, so any change based on this is minor. The biggest thing that might (or might not) alter risk assessment this week is the new strain in China, IMHO.

janetn – at 19:55

Anon 22 Why has the new strain in China of concern to you please elaborate. Thank you so much for all the answers you have given here.

anonymous – at 20:02

yeah anon_22, that is a bit disconcerting. Since that “new strain” has been there for quite a while now, and it was based on teh ctudy of that strain that I am sure the Chinese came out with the announcement that they felt there was a 20% possibility of the bird flu going pandemic THIS flu season. They have had time to study it.

anon_22 – at 20:02

janetn, did you see this new thread New Dominant H5N1 Strain In China?

anon_22 – at 20:03

anonymous – at 20:02

I don’t understand, where did you get that 20% possibility?

TreasureIslandGalat 20:08

oops sorry… that was me.

I’ll try to find it again. It came out a month ago, maybe two. That, combined with Thailand securing vaccine for this season really perked me up.

TreasureIslandGalat 20:15

it was either on a PPF thread or a China thread. it’s going to take me a while to find the news story again. it was originally posted on NewsNow out of China.

Goju – at 20:26

I may be a dummy but i think the “genetic” thing is BS. Cover.

I also know that the Fujian-Like strain was identified months ago and is old news. This strain did some mighty fine footwork evading the vaccine and then multiplying, taking over the turf. My bets are on a duke out between Qinghai and Fujian…. sound like an old king fu movie. The Qinghai Kid vs. the Fujian Tough Guy.

I would like to know where are all the sick people hiding now? Like… there are virtually no sick people with H5N1 anywhere… just lots of people getting sick with all sorts of “flu like” illnesses that aren’t BF.

Must just be me.

cottontop – at 22:08

Can someone tell me the meaning of the dot with a slash under it, a dash beside it and )? Didn’t find it on forum shorthand. I see it used alot.

07 November 2006

anon_22 – at 09:16

Goju, We don’t know where the sick are hiding, we don’t know if a lot of people got sick from this new strain. But even if there hasn’t been a lot of cases, it is still a bad development, cos that can change easily, since we see that the last few known cases are all from this strain.

Dr Dave – at 09:27

Cottontop, just tilt your head to the left and an image will appear with a wink and a smile.

uk bird – at 09:29

cottontop – at 22:08 Can someone tell me the meaning of the dot with a slash under it, a dash beside it and )? Didn’t find it on forum shorthand. I see it used alot.

;-) is a smile and a wink

cottontop – at 09:38

Thanks. I was hoping it was a good thing! How do you acess it from the keyboard?

uk bird – at 09:47

Semi colon, minus sign and a right bracket. ; - )

:-( frown :-o shock ‘Oh!’ There are more but I don’t know them. It was the fore runner of emoticons.

Kim – at 09:51

The eyes (wink ;) are just to the right of the letter “L”. The nose (-) is just to the right of the number “0″. The mouth is the number “0″ using the shift key.

uk bird – at 10:01

ROTFLMAO Notice how much time we spend answering the ‘difficult’ questions.

anonymous – at 16:37

crfullmoon – at 07:07 (Note to self; will Z my snowblower and lawn mower; they’d be better cared for…”

I’ll take ‘em. I had to fly 3,600 miles to get a weedwhacker running for a friend. :) I just need some ducttape, baling wire and a Leatherman.

Other useful factoids: no need for an expensive arsenal for protecting the ranch during a pandemic. Potato cannons will take out just about anything, they make a scary good loud noise and they’re fun! All you need is some ABS/PVC pipe and fittings, and plumbing cement. Science project for the kids…

For detonation, hairspray is awesome - big badda boom and cheap. A little dab’ll do ya. Better living through modern hair products.

Z – at 16:46

The above was ‘Z’

no name – at 21:29

Z, do you have a more detailed construction instruction. I’ve never heard of a potato cannon…do you put a baking potato in the tube…really?

Guess I missed that science class.

08 November 2006

Closed and Continued - Bronco Bill – at 10:23

I’m gonna close and continue this thread here

I’ll copy these last few posts over to the new thread

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Page last modified on November 08, 2006, at 10:23 AM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Best Way to Inform and Influence Where You Live

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Best Way to Inform and Influence Where You Live

05 November 2006

Nidaho – at 17:00

I have posted this in the distant past what will post it again. For most counties and cities preparedness for emergencies starts with the individual. I can only speak from my experience, but here is what I have done in the past and now present time.

1. You have to be involved in local politics. (Attendance of meetings, committees ECT.) 2. You want to influence people not scare them 3. Network local, state and federal agencies. 4. Get involved. 5. Train one’s self (Every state has some kind of online training)

I for one travel extensively, but am still able to be some what involved. I am curious as to what others have been able to in their local governments to prepare for a Pandemic. Informing the public is good, but lasts for only a short while unless you have government backing.

Biride Kate – at 20:54

Well I pushed and pushed until I ticked some people off, then I waited and laid low. They have now asked me for some help. I am not pushing anymore, just suggesting when the opportunity arises. We now have someone who is in charge, just learning, but has some medical background and is really gun ho.

08 November 2006

Nidaho – at 10:01

Birdie Kate - What I suggest it to work through your local community staffed committees. For instance I gave a small speech on community resilience last week. I now may be able to expand emergency services and add to my community’s emergency plan. Pandemic planning will be put on the agenda. This did not happen overnight, I did not push very hard on one particular emergency. I pushed real hard on emergency preparedness. That means flood, fire, rock slides, pandemic planning ECT. I now have the correct audience and the funds to plan and execute future plans. Then I bring others who are like minded into the fold and increase preparedness even more.

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Page last modified on November 08, 2006, at 10:01 AM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Ask Questions of the Moderators Here XIX

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Ask Questions of the Moderators Here XIX

05 November 2006

DemFromCTat 11:58

I always liked XIX in roman numerals.

Bronco Bill – at 15:37

What?!? Are you trying to catch up to the Aus/NZ number of threads? LOL!!!

XIX is pronounced Zik, BTW, even though the Romans had no equivalent for our letter “Z” ;-)

This is why BB almost always wins at Trivial Pursuit

Medical Maven – at 22:27

Tick-tock, tick-tock, tick-tock……………………………….

06 November 2006

DemFromCTat 00:42

Well, that was cryptic enough to be unreadable, MM.

anonymous – at 01:46

what was that with monotreme and anon_22 ? Can we have a short summary for those who missed it ? Will monotreme return ? Is he on another board now ?

anon_22 – at 02:21

SUMMARY:

Monotreme started a thread that, when I read it, suggested that the Chinese government had taken actions in relation to H5N1 and a possible pandemic with deliberate intent to harm the rest of the world. I thought it was unacceptable for this forum and took it offline while waiting to consult with the other mods. Monotreme was informed immediately of my decision and my reasons. The other moderators support my decision, and after a number of hours, the thread was put back with a disclaimer that the opinions do not reflect those of and are not supported by the mods. I apologised for taking the thread offline for those hours, Monotreme was invited to re-write the thread if he did not intend to imply the Chinese government had acted with intent to do harm, with the same content if he wanted but taking care that the meaning was clear. He has decided he will take a break from writing on this forum.

We are asking participants to use words with care when writing about controversial or sensitive issues. This position is no different from what we have always taken, just that because of this incident we are now making it explicit.

This subject was open for discussion for a period of 24 hours. That timeframe has now expired, and the subject is closed.

Thank you.

anonymous – at 05:33

summary of the SUMMARY : differences about censorship at fw.
still curious, where he is posting now…

Bronco Bill – at 05:58

~~mous --- You’ll just have to go look around. He doesn’t check in here to announce where he is…

anonymous – at 06:20

where is that China-thread ?

anon_22 – at 06:47

It’s here

anon_22 – at 06:47

Be warned, though, that we are not going to re-open that discussion. Thank you!

Medical Maven – at 11:24

The Rubaiyat of Omar Khayyam-

“The Moving Finger writes; and, having writ, Moves on: nor all your Piety nor Wit Shall lure it back to cancel half a Line, Nor all your Tears wash out a Word of it.”

anonymous – at 11:36

sheesh.

Who’s THAT guy and what’s he know about Bird Flu? Come’on I want quotes from people who matter now, who are interested in bird flu; not quotes from dusty manuscripts with no bearing on anything other than trying to sustain an argument. No piety, no luring and no tears.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 11:36

That was me!

anonymous – at 11:41

Perhaps, “Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it,” would be more apt here.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 11:49

Guess that depends on who’s history……since I believe history repeating itself is for the most part a good thing!

Bronco Bill – at 13:39

Now kids…behave yourselves! ;-)

diana – at 13:58

Monotreme did have something valuable to say. People are naturally curious about the remainder of his message. This is not to re-open anything, but it would be gracious of the mods to pass on notice if he does start his own site. I know the China thread has been on my mind for days, and I am not into the more serious and technical threads on the wiki. The entire world situation political and ecological concerns me, not H5N1 alone in its varied manifestations. It is part of the entire Chinese picture. Not for here, perhaps not for this wiki. It hasn’t been swept under the rug, the thread opened the door, and its there for anyone to peruse.

DemFromCTat 14:38

diana, I expect that he will be back from time to time, and we are on good terms. I also offered to post links to him should he either start his own blog or post elsewhere.

Bird Guano – at 14:46

Can we bury the dead horse now, instead of just kicking it ?

Clawdia – at 15:15

Fine by me, BG - I’m just sorry the horse died in the first place.

cooker – at 15:39

Is Melanie still a moderator here? I haven’t seen her either here or on her blog.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 16:36

Cooker, she’s been very ill & hasn’t posted in awhile.

Commonground – at 16:54

Well, I think TomDVM may be upset also, he hasn’t been here all day.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 17:14

I hate to make light of it all, because I love TomDVM, but maybe he was tending that horse that died that Bird Guano – at 14:46 refered to. :-) Could be on his way home from the funeral now…..hope he’s here “with bells on” tomorrow as the expression goes. It’s been a day for cliches.

Jefiner – at 17:42

Tom is a large animal vet, after all . . .

I have to admit I was amazed by the entire uproar. I certainly hope that the same delicacy that is expected of us in referring to the government of the People’s Republic of China will be applied to the governments of the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, WHO . . . aw heck, let’s just love EVERYBODY!

(slapping myself)

There I go just being a naive American again.

Looks like there are enough cliches to go around for everyone here. I think I will just go back to lurking lest I cause a thread yank and we all unravel on the floor . . .

HillBilly Bill – at 20:12

Jefiner – at 17:42

If there is a good side to these occassional upsets on the wiki, it certainly has to be the insightful and amusing comments that follow.

On the fence and leaning – at 20:37

HillBilly Bill: Also, the site becomes less crowded as people, some of our most thoughtful contributors, depart. This will increase our refresh times.

OKbirdwatcherat 20:47

I, for one, already sense the void created by the apparent departure of “some of our most thoughtful contributors”. I hope they’ll return.

Okeiman – at 20:53

Bottom line for me:

Are you here helping? That is all that really matters on this site. I’ve got family and kin to protect, and I’m afraid time is getting short.

It’s what they do, not what they say.

Under The Radar – at 21:14

diana – at 13:58, you might like www . terminusreality . com along with this one. That one also has political and ecological threads in addition to H5N1. (Don’t get me wrong, anyone, FW is a great forum too! Maybe the best for H5N1 info and talk.)

Bronco Bill – at 21:21

OKbirdwatcher – at 20:47 --- Absolutely ditto. I for one very much miss “anonymous”. ;-)

Under The Radar – at 21:14 --- Maybe the best for H5N1 info and talk Not. IS the best! JMHO, of course…

Monotreme – at 21:27

Hi everyone.

Just so everyone knows, I haven’t made a “Farewell, cruel forum” speech. I will be back every once in a while, as DemFromCT has indicated. I am working on my site which will include a blog and some web pages. I’ll send DemFromCT the URL when it’s done. It will be very rough at first, so don’t expect much. If it works at all, it’ll be a miracle.

I also want to make sure everyone knows that my problem is strictly with anon_22. I have nothing but the highest respect for the other moderators. I think FluWiki will continue to be great place for collaborative work on preparedness and will continue to recommend it to others.

I think anon_22 is highly intelligent and agree with her on many issues. However, I think our world-views are fundamentally incompatible. So it goes. With respect to the thread that started this, she and I disagree on what happened and why it happened. But I don’t want to waste any bandwidth on this subject here. I’ll have a place at my site where people can ask me questions on whatever occurs to them, immodestly called, “Ask Monotreme”. I’m hoping that discussion of these problems on this thread will end so that people can get back to working on preparedness.

Good luck to you all.

anonymous – at 21:55

Even though I’m just another lurker, I read this site very regularly for updates and new information and it’s very hard not to chime-in with one’s “two cents” being that fluwiki has been such a great one stop/one shop place for both preparedness and the intelligent discussion that the science threads generated…the later helping a great deal to promote understanding. Thank you to those (two:-)contributors for giving such thoughtful and thorough explanations in the past… Will miss those for sure! (..back to lurkers mode)

anon_22 – at 22:01

Monotreme,

For what it’s worth, you and I may disagree, but I wish you well in whatever you do. And please do chime in when you feel like it, especially with the virology stuff. There aren’t many contributors of your calibre on that.

DemFromCTat 22:13

“Ask Monotreme”.

LOL

I like that. of course, we’ll link. ;-)

disgruntled – at 22:15

anon_22 – at 22:01

Monotreme,

For what it’s worth, you and I may disagree, but I wish you well in whatever you do. And please do chime in when you feel like it, especially with the virology stuff. There aren’t many contributors of your calibre on that.


Yes, you’ve certainly seen to that.

DemFromCTat 22:18

Comments like that do not contribute to our mission and are best ignored.

cottontop – at 22:26

disgruntled-

I’ll agree with your comment. While I have much respect for the good people here, I will say this has upset, and surprised me. It takes all kinds to make this political world go around, and I really do not think Monotreme was so far out of line. I did not take his opinion as being offensive, or disrespectful. After all, we’ve been reading everything he stated for awhile now, it isn’t made up news. I really cannot agree with the uproar. That just MHO.

Okieman – at 22:30

If one would like to understand the possible reasons for the conflict between Monotreme and anon_22 please read on this link for a few minutes. It addresses issues relating to Western versus Eastern philosophy and thought processes. Thanks.

http://tinyurl.com/bv99k

cottontop – at 22:48

Religious differnces don’t belong here, and if that’s the sum total of this, well…

DemFromCT-with all due respect kind sir,(and I mean it), I guess we need to differentiate what exactly is freedom of speech on the wiki, and what isn’t. Monotreme stated his opinion on the subject, and I was glad to see the disclaimer, because for the most part, we at this great place state our opinions. People get upset here all the time by someones words.

I’m not trying to upset any one. I’m just stating my two cents. However, I hope this doesn’t become common practice. I would really hate to leave the wiki.

anon_22 – at 22:52

cottontop,

I don’t want to open this again, but if you want to differentiate what exactly is freedom of speech, in that particular episode, the specific issue was whether accusing a foreign government of taking actions in relation to H5N1 and a possible pandemic with the intention to cause harm to the rest of the world is acceptable rhetoric on this forum.

All the mods have voted No to that.

anon_22 – at 22:52

And, you are right, religious differences don’t belong here at all.

anon_22 – at 22:57

I just want to make clear that this was a very specific event, not a blanket policy of not allowing freedom of speech about the chinese governments or any governments.

As I said before, opinions, criticisms, analysis, news, rumours, debates, etc are welcome. When it comes to accusations or allegations, especially regarding intent to harm, we are asking participants to be aware that, as Dem said, deliberately inflammatory language is not helpful.

cottontop – at 23:00

anon_22

My bottom line on this, is that his comment was his opinion, and that’s all there is to this whole thing. Nothing more. I’m not trying to start anything, anon_22. I value your thoughts as much as I valued momotreme’s. But I don’t believe in censorship.

FloridaGirlat 23:10

If I may add my thoughts…

I have read fluwiki threads for more than a year. I did not really partipate until recently. I would only post the studies I found while doing research for classes.

I have watched the conflicts come and go, always thinking that both sides make very good points… many times they also have facts to back them up.

People with good ideas, good conversation, good argument, have posted here…. got mad… and some left… This has happened on many discussion boards.

I respect both Monotreme and Anon_22, but I do not always agree with either of them. That said… I would be very remiss if I did not add how much I have learned from them, also.

Because of this type of conflict, several months ago, I started thinking about the differences we (everyone) have in our view of the world, in how we would deal with crisis, and how we would respond to the devastation of a pandemic.

This is one reason why I thought it would be a good idea to start a section on cultural considerations…. So that we could seek ways to help each other. (communities at large).

That does not mean, I think there is a cultural issue between Monontreme and Anon_22…… It just means, we all have our perception of “how the world turns”…. If we start ignoring the fact that we are all different, instead of learning tolerance of those differences… Are we going to be able to make the world a safer place?

I, too, have taken offense of something that was written to me. I had to cool off and think about what that person was really saying. It is not too hard to look through the eyes of another……

(as long as it is not politics…)
:)

anon_22 – at 23:11

cottontop,

As Dem said, there was never complete freedom of speech on this site. As is the case in real life - you don’t expect to be able to say whatever comes to your head and not have consequences. We make judgments about what is acceptable, polite, safe, appropriate, legal, etc many times a day, whenever we open our mouths to say something.

Writing online sometimes makes people feel secure from consequences. That can be good, but sometimes someone else has to make those judgments, and that someone would be one of the mods, who have to be responsible for more than just what one person feels like saying. We don’t like to do that, in fact, its the part of the job that we hate most. But it is a necessary evil, and we try to do as little of it as possible.

I know its hard to reconcile these things sometimes, and we don’t expect that we can please everyone. But the bottomline is, there’s a virus that might kill millions of people. Come a pandemic, there will be far harder battles to fight, and this will be so insignificant we will wonder how on earth we ever spent so much energy on it.

:-)

Pixie – at 23:27

Unfortunately, I think that one aspect of this pandemic that we will not be able to get away from will be the many accusations of intent to do harm that come out of it. That happened during and after the events in New Orleans, and it will happen many times in the days, weeks, and months of a pandemic. I fear, in fact, that there is not much we can do to prevent that kind of issue from being the ultimate issue of the event - the major topic that is discussed in the press, discussed online, fought over, and the one that will lead to the most tabloid of headlines as the argument potentially sparks a tinder box in some area or other. I wish this issue - the accusation that anyone or any party had intent to do harm during this pandemic - will become an insignificant one, but I don’t think it is going away. With the birth of the pandemic will come a heap of blame, and that will be much easier to discuss than what happened to your neighbor’s child.

cottontop – at 23:28

Florida Girl- Well put, and I enjoy the new thread you’ve started. Keep up the wonderful work.

anon_22- this will be all I have to say, and I hope there is no ill feelings. But I have learned a lesson here, as I always do.

anon_22 – at 23:31

Pixie, sadly I do agree partly with what you have to say. Let’s just hope we can temper some of that, cos there will be so much trauma everywhere I just wish, well, sometimes I don’t even know what I wish. Maybe just to wish this whole thing away…

anon_22 – at 23:32

cottontop, no ill feeling at all. We are all in this together, let’s just keep at it.

On the fence and leaning – at 23:34

I am being absolutely honest here. Please don’t hurt me. There have been some posts on here about certain organizations withholding sequences, etc. The thread in question stated (if I read it right) that a certain country, we’ll call it Nonwikiniestein, knows more than they are letting on so they can have some sort of vaccine head start. All very conspiratorial and unable to be proved. Do we, as a wiki, want to address any of this in any other way so as not to start an international incident? Is a disclaimer at the top a thread enough to allow this type of conversation to continue, without accusations of course? I guess I just get so confused about these little dust ups. I am a small fish in a big pond here. Seems to me that these tangles happen between the big fish more than the rest and I just sit back in amazement because usually just trying to figure out what is being said is hard enough. I rarely take offense to anything on here and realize that no one here speaks for all of us.

anon_22 – at 23:50

On the fence and leaning – at 23:34

Good question, and no offense at all.

A lot of people are asking the Chinese government to hand over data regarding H5N1, sequences, or samples. It is not a forbidden topic of discussion. In fact, it is a very important topic of discussion, because co-operation between governments will go a long way towards the world’s ability to prevent or mitigate a pandemic. Even if I personally don’t need to know it, the top researchers should certainly have access to as much information as possible, seeing that China at the moment is where an important strain or variant is appearing for which we know so little.

So do go ahead and discuss these issues. What was a problem was the inference that they were doing things deliberately to harm the world, which was a different ballgame altogether.

Here’s a simpler way of thinking about it: discuss, give opinions, etc but try not to make accusations of intent. Cos bottomline? You really can’t tell people’s intention, can you? Which means that it will almost always become unsubstantiated allegations.

That really is the only thing we are asking you to be conservative about. It doesn’t mean you need to change your content, just the way you say it. It will make the mods lives a lot easier, among many things. (I lost close to 2 days of productive work cos of this, but its ok, it needed to be done. But just to show you what I mean, you know.)

Jefiner – at 23:52

Anon22, you and I have not spoken directly in the past, and I have nothing but admiration for your work in the field. However, I think that your perspective on how those of us in the so called “Western World” shoulder the responsibility of freedom of ideas and freedom of expression is unfair, to say the least. What passed here was debate: question and answer, clarification and explanation. And sometimes debate is messy, ugly, unreasonable and illogical. But in the current world view, one person’s perspective does not a national policy make.

I can grasp the complexity of the political nebula that is the PRC; my grand parents (Congregational missionaries), my uncle and several of their friends disappeared in China in 1949. We never knew what happened to them, or who was the instrument of their deaths—the Communists or the Nationalists. It makes me appreciate the relative safety in which I live, and how quickly that safety could vanish in the face of a disaster like a pandemic.

With that in mind, I am concerned with the brain drain away from the wiki. It could get kind of lonely in here. How do we generate ideas in an echo chamber? What do we need to do to get along, cooperate and problem solve?

I know you stated that the discussion was closed. It is just something to think about.

anon_22 – at 23:57

Jefiner,

The discussion about the specifics of the event might be closed, or almost, but discussions about the way forward certainly would be the most important thing now.

I wonder if you know exactly where the line was:

the line was on accusation of intention to harm/

(Just checking, cos I think most of the difficulty came from this misunderstanding.)

It was a single item. It doesn’t generalize into other things. The only reason why it became such a big problem (at least from my POV) was because we failed to agree that it was possible to re-write all of the content ie without dropping anything, without making such an accusation.

anon_22 – at 23:58

Jefiner,

btw, it wasn’t just me. When the mods discussed this, they are agreed on this.

07 November 2006

anon_22 – at 00:02

Let me give an analogy. It’s one thing to say incompetence etc caused so many people to lose their lives during Katrina. It’s quite another to say somebody did something with the intention of causing those lives to be lost.

Edna Mode – at 00:12

Sorry to sidetrack this scintillating thread with such boring matters, but mods, is it normal for posters to have access to the following screen? I have hit some sequence of keystrokes twice in the past couple of weeks and this edit screen appears. It seems to be a method of altering the posts in the given thread with a “save” button at the bottom of the screen. Seems as if this shouldn’t be happening. (Below is an excerpt of what displayed; contents included the entire news thread but I truncated so this post wouldn’t be a mile long).

Editing {Forum.NewsReportsForNovember6}

‘’ !!!!06 November 2006

AnnieBat 00:29

(If you want any of the links to open in a new window, hold down the shift key and then click on the link)

Lookout Posts – here are the links (if no Lookout Post exists, it will not be highlighted) ’‘

Edna Mode – at 00:13

Well, that didn’t display the straight text but the formatting. Anyway…you get the idea. I am hitting the hay. If you need me to try to explain the keystrokes I used, I can e-mail someone tomorrow a.m.

anon_22 – at 00:14

Edna, can you email Dem (cos I gotta go soon) with the keystrokes that you used to get to this?

Jumping Jack Flash – at 00:25

holy aclu, batman.

hitler caused millions of lives to be lost. did i hurt anyones feelings??? do i need to hire an attorney? will i be banned for saying that?

i’m going to go look for monotreme….

Dude – at 00:53

The Moderators have decided to close the discussion on the “China topic” without addressing my concerns and then made that decision non negotiable. I tend to take my time and think things though. I wish they were not in such a rush. I don’t take well to dictates that serve to cut off debate.

The moderators also want this site to remain readable by the population of Communist China and have a moderator who must temper our discussion by very real concerns for family who live in China. I would not have allowed that set of circumstances to come about nor do I agree with that desire for readability on the part of the moderators. I will not allow the reach of the Chinese Communist Government to stop what I have to say nor the way I say it.

This site no longer (it may never have supported) supports the Western World’s collective view of freedom of speech. I am an American who values freedom of speech who no longer feels welcome here.

I always use good taste and respect for my fellow posters and try to be constructive in the best way I can. I can’t operate under the specific conditions that you have set out that limits my ability to speak truth to power.

There are powers in the world that need to have accusations leveled at them as the starting points of a discussion; my own government in the United States is a prime example. As far as culture is concerned, reality is what you make of it. I hope that you don’t come to live in the culture that you advocate.

I am not sure if I can continue to support the efforts of this site. I have suddenly become very uncomfortable here. For the foreseeable future…Dude has left the building.

Ps. I am not a drama queen and I am an adult and this is not just any issue…

anon_22 – at 00:55

Jefiner,

I missed that bit about grasping political realities. With your background, you might be able to understand this, as one of the considerations. I was born in Hong Kong, which makes me a Chinese citizen by default (also British, but that’s a different story), I have family and friends etc etc.

Not so long ago, an attempt was made by the Hong Kong government to pass an anti-sedition law that included, among other things, failure to report other people using language that the central government considered seditious (the definition of said word being up to the said government), even if those people were foreigners, and even if the act happened overseas. A lot of people went on protest marches, and the government had to back down. The issue is now put aside, but by constitution HK needs to put up a version of anti-sedition law in the near future. And, oh, btw, the old version? It could be retro-active. So I’m sitting here, and thinking, when are they going to bring that back, what would the new set of laws be like, and would those also be retro-active?

For more information, follow the above link, especially look at the last 2 items under ‘concerns’.

The other mods don’t think my position compromises the quality of the content here. They probably also think that it might be a good idea if I didn’t get into trouble.

I, OTOH, think it’s a good idea if I didn’t get into trouble for a cause that I didn’t pick.

All this just by way of background…

There may come a day when I can’t do this. That time is not here yet. I hope it never comes. I hope the virus disappears first….

anon_22 – at 00:58

Dude, I will let the other mods debate those points with you. I have disclose all there is to disclose, far more than i ever thought was necessary. There was never ever even for one minute any doubt in my mind that I am not able to provide the kind of openness and quality of debate and information required for this site. However, as I said, I leave that for the other mods to judge.

anon_22 – at 00:59

But, Dude, I have a different question for you. Do you think it is better for freedom in the big wide world (not just for Americans) that someone like me can continue to offer the best of what I’ve got here than not?

anon_22 – at 01:01

Dude, would it have been ok for someone to say the mayor of New Orleans did something deliberately so that those people would die? Would it have been censorship to say it’s not helpful to say things like that?

Cos that is what happened.

anon_22 – at 01:06

Dude,

I can’t operate under the specific conditions that you have set out that limits my ability to speak truth to power.

Do YOU know what the truth is? Do you know whether the Chinese government took actions intentionally to harm the rest of the world?

Cos that is the thing under discussion. Not the covering up of truth. Not censorship of truth. But a request to make statements that do not cross the line into unsubstantiated allegations of intent to harm.

It is a very simple problem. It’s only complicated if you didn’t know exactly what the issue was.

anon_22 – at 01:13

I’m going to put this in bold and ask everyone to ask themselves these questions:

Dude, would it have been ok for someone to say the mayor of New Orleans did something deliberately so that those people would die? Would it have been censorship to say it’s not helpful to say things like that?

What balance should we strike between free speech and responsible speech?

The standard that you decide is appropriate for the mayor of New Orleans should also be the same standard that is appropriate for anyone else.

pogge – at 01:46

I really think the argument about the right to free speech is a red herring. This has always been a moderated forum just as the wiki has always been subject to editorial direction. That’s never been a secret.

In the past, we’ve closed down any number of threads that we felt were off-topic. We’ve also closed down discussions that were excessively political because it’s felt that partisan political discussion works against what we’re trying to accomplish here.

In short, we’ve never run this forum as a complete free speech zone. And I’ll add that those forums that I’ve seen where anything goes have sooner or later become places where I’d rather not spend my time and I wouldn’t want to be associated with one. Trust me, there are some real cesspools out there.

What’s at issue here isn’t whether or not we moderate the forum because we will, as we always have. What’s at issue is trying to find the right balance between allowing as much expression as possible and keeping the focus of the site and fulfilling its mandate.

It’s not correct to say that we’ve removed anyone’s right to free speech because in terms of this forum, or any other moderated forum on the internet, in a practical sense it’s a right you’ve never really had in the first place.

If someone posted something about a named individual that was obviously libellous and I deleted it, I doubt anyone would question it. If someone insisted on posting obviously racist screeds or calls for someone’s murder, I’d ban the individual involved in a heartbeat and I doubt I’d be seeing any serious complaints about it. So obviously you don’t have the right to say just anything you please here and you’ve never had that right. This is a privately owned and operated site and we have the right to make those decisions. And as much as we try and solicit feedback from the community and incorporate that into the rules and policies that govern the place, ultimately somebody has to make those decisions. And we make them knowing full well that some people will think we’ve made one or another of them badly.

I think what’s at issue right now is whether or not a moderating decision that’s been made is too heavy handed, or more heavy handed than you’ve come to expect or would like to see. Fine. But please, let’s keep it in perspective. We have a complicated and sensitive issue and we have to try and find the right balance between what each individual wants and what we’re hoping this project will accomplish.

No one is trying to simply gag anyone else here. Monotreme, who’s at the centre of this, understands that even if he feels strongly enough about the issue to go off and start his own site so he can say what he wants to in that venue. You’ll notice he didn’t leave permanently. He’s stated at least twice that he intends to return at least from time to time. But he wants the freedom to explore a particular issue in a way that we’re not comfortable with. As we’ve always said, it’s a big internet and some of the discussions we avoid here are welcome in other places.

Maybe my own attitude is coloured by the fact that I was a blogger before this site ever opened, as well as a participant in a couple of forums where politics and controversy are the order of the day. It seems perfectly natural to me to take advantage of different websites for the strengths each one offers. If anyone feels strongly enough about what’s happened that he wants to walk away from this place permanently I think that’s really unfortunate. But if you’re doing it as a point of principle and you think you’re striking a blow for freedom of speech, you’re really not.

We’ll continue moderating and we’re going to continue to deal with the fact that running a forum like this involves compromises. Every day. Some of them are relatively easy and the vast majority agree with them. Some of them are more difficult and won’t always be popular. Alongside the principles involved is the practical business of running a site day in and day out and trying to do as much good as we can.

Clawdia – at 02:34

Monotreme - you’d be most welcome to post at CE - we’re quite proud of our Flu Clinic, and there would be no constraints upon reasonable speculative thought. :)

And about these questions, “Dude, would it have been ok for someone to say the mayor of New Orleans did something deliberately so that those people would die? Would it have been censorship to say it’s not helpful to say things like that?”

If the allegations were true, it would be far more than ok. If it were even a distinct possibility, speculation and investigation would be not just ok, but necessary. “Question Authority” is an important part of western culture.

If there were any validity to the mayor’s involvement in the causation of a potentially fatal situation, then yes, it would have been censorship to quash the issue in toto. The truth is not dependent upon being “helpful”. The truth is not always pretty, nor is it politically correct.

I understand now this turmoil to be the apparent result of anon-22 being in a precarious position, and the same for family. I am sorry that’s the reality. Some things might be necessitated by this situation, but I’m in a quandary about how much it should be allowed to influence what things are said here. It’s a horrid political situation, I understand that, but we cannot allow ourselves to be governed by that political system.

The time for this kind of argument is not now, I think. The situation regarding the warning given to US residents of Hong Kong bodes nothing good insofar as our appraisal of the progression of the disease. I think at the moment, this should be of utmost concern. I think China should be watched most closely, and I do not believe that to be a remark deserving of censorship - realism is what it is.

anon_22 – at 02:50

I’m getting annoyed. None of you get it, at least not those who posted. Whoever said anything about not watching China closely? Whoever said anything about quashing the issue it toto?

Will everyone please read what I’ve written carefully!


Clawdia, do you think the mayor of NO did something intentionally so people should die? Do you really? No if’s or but’s, do you? Because that is the question, its not, IF there is evidence. Well, there isn’t, there isn’t any evidence that the mayor plotted in that way, right? (I’m using this simply because this is exactly the same analogy, with apologies to said mayor, of course,)

So if there isn’t, but there is some concern about it, what to do?

I never asked that you shouldn’t write about it. The point has always been consistent, if you are concerned, and you don’t have very good evidence, but it is an important point, then you should write about that point, but make it in a way that does not make an accusation that you cannot substantiate.

For example, saying that I’m concerned that someone might have done something is fine. Saying someone did do that something is not fine, in the absense of evidence.

I’m sorry, Clawdia, cos it looks like I’m taking it out on you. I;m not, just that I’ve repeated this point so many times over the past few days. Either people don;t want to read it, or, what, I have no idea.

Please read carefully, it isn’t that complicated.

anon_22 – at 03:06

Friends, please, Do not believe, even for one moment, that Americans, or the west, has the corner on the fight for freedom. We fight it, many nameless people in many places, we live that fight, and we don’t need to shout it from the rooftops. We fight it with more than you can possibly imagine.

So think, before you believe than someone else has less of an investment in freedom than you do, just because they don’t wear it on their foreheads. It belittles them as well as yourself, for you to believe that without thinking.


Thanks for listening. End of rant.

blackbird – at 03:45

anon_22, at the risk of adding fuel to the lenthly sharing of opinins, I would just like to say that your approach (and that of the other mods) makes sense to me.

None of you get it, at least not those who posted.

When I was in elementary school, sometimes one of the kids would say “It’s a FREE WORLD, you know.” Well, it isn’t. My family history means that I know it isn’t. We were lucky that a great deal of freedom existed here in the US for a long time. (I am not going to go into a rant about habeas corpus on this site, because it’s a FLU WIKI.)

I value tremendously the news and information available here regarding H5N1. Thank you to the mods for all of your hard work and time, and to all of my fellow posters and lurkers for your attention to the potential impact of a pandemic. This is NOT intended to discount the full spectrum of topics and views that ach of us cares about.

This has clearly been a challenging set of events for the wiki (actually I missed the controversy until after the fact) and I hope the spirit that first attracted me here survives. It’s late and I may not be as elequent as I would like, but I wanted to respond to the last post. Good night everyone. And thank you.

Urdar-Norway – at 06:27

if it wasent of topic, the conspiracy (!) from the sugar industry in cooperation with the US governmnet could be discussed here, or could it? It goes something like this.. Sugar industry is historical result of slavery, and it still uses slavery. Poor farmworkers in Thaiti caught in a evil depht system prevents them from ever getting up on their feets.. The sugar producers are owned by US companies and families and has strong support in the US administration. When UN tries to take action against the global epidemic of overweight (maybe it time to declare this as well as a pandemic (like AIDS) the US representatives in UN blocked the proposistion, and removing the part of the delacration that blames, a to hughe intake of sugar (maximun income of energy should not be higher then 10% from sugar)

The result is that UN is unable to work agianst the agressive maketing of sugar vares, like softdrinks etc. This is a conspiracy good as anyone. And by the way, the UN representaive from the US is Bush god-son… This conspiracy is very visible for us in Norway. ( it is our health politicians and representatives who has been leading the fight agianst the sugar companys and their acts.. And yes its well documented.

It has been in our media for years, and it makes perfect sense.. This is only one of a number of reasons why USAs popolarity and trust is falling heavy in the european countris. Its quite like the WHO and birdflu isuses is it not? Its power, profit and hidden agandas all over.. And is also a good example of a issue I would like the tinfoil hat folks to fucus at, instead of silly stories about chemtrails etc.

I think its very hard to discuss a public (and especial global) health problem whitout involving politics.. WHO is politics.. It should be science, but as long as profitt is involved somehvere it will end up beiing politics. Now what I would like to see is a motive for China fucking up things, a motive that is stronger than incompetance and rigid power and hiearchy. Then it would make a lot of sense, and could be more easy to atack than “system weakness” But watching issues from far away allways have the risk of tunnel vision syndrome..

With the disclamimer now in place I rely think the china discusison is in place. And in regards of the riks of getting fluwiki banned in china, well ist not bannned yet, and my impresion is also that the internet banning in china is quite over-dramaticed.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 07:14

Anon-22, I have to say that you have bent over backwards to make your point VERY clear. All of the mods have — I can hear the agreement in each of the mod posts — each one of you is saying the same thing and it’s very clear. It’s also very clear when someone else ‘twists’ that — like throwing out the word TRUTH as not being allowed when that was exactly what the mods were asking for was TRUTH in statements made.

To borrow a comment from this generations more favorite expressions, it’s soooo NOT about just your family, and that’s obvious to anyone who’s read this thread (all parts) without a bias to begin with.

Don’t knock yourself out trying to explain any more; you’ve done quite well and I can hear, in posts from others who disagree with you, a frustration that is coming from somewhere other than this thread……everybody comes here with “communication baggage” of some type.

Day is dawning here and nothing’s going to change their minds after a night’s sleep.

It’s NOT you or the other mods that need to continue this discussion, although I know you will.

Here’s MY baggage: Our freedom of speech was not built on a lack of consequences and all us Westerners here know that, we just tend to ignore it when something limits what we, personally want to say without consequences. I’m ashamed of the haughtiness I read in some peoples’ posts here from my country. It’s no wonder the rest of the world hates us. Sweet invites over to someone else’s threads doesn’t cut it when I’ve read time and again about discord in these other places as well. None of these places is perfect, but you’d think we were all, on this election day, running for the office of the best friendliest website in the free world.

Anon-22 and mods, you’ve done a very good job of being clear, whether people agree with you or not, and whether they do or not doesn’t matter. It’s YOUR forum, your parameters we have all been guided by all this time. Keep up the good work.

Pixie – at 07:18

anon_22:

A practical question. Is it not simply possible to recuse yourself from any guilt by association by refraining to join in on any debate that you think is too heated? Or, would bringing to light a contrary view in that debate not be enough to establish your lack of alliance with the particular views being shared?

This would be similar to your refraining from joining a particular discussion about which you’ve been privy to private information, given to you on condition that it remain private, for example.

Does your status as a moderator here, in your view, give some parties on the outside the idea that even if you do not join a particular conversation, that you give the ideas expressed there tacit approval? And, is that so even if you publicly disagree?

DemFromCTat 07:44

Pixie, that last paragraph is a real risk. And it doesn’t really matter what ‘our’ views on the topic are. I think the frustrations come out about folks just assuming their world view must be the correct one. Maybe it is, maybe it isn’t. and take the time to think through what it means if the other guy is correct. We try to do that, and then make the call. We try to keep as light a hand as possible. But please reread pogge’s post above. If this comes down to a free speech issue and nothing more, we all lose.

It’ll be interesting to see how people react if the Feds or some of the senior scientists ever want to post here. Why would they if we can’t show a modicum of self-restraint, always preferred to mod intervention?

In any case, Monotreme wrote me with the new URL for his site that he’s trying to put together. It’s still in beta, but that’s where you can find him.

Pixie – at 07:45

anon_22:

BTW, I ask the questions I have asked above because I found myself in a similar position on very similar issues. As a founding member of another flu forum, I found that others there wanted to elevate someone who made what I believe were heinous statements about the U.S. on several occasions. (The individual then independently began making such statements on behalf of the site and those who ran it.) I felt that I could not be associated with that point of view, which might have been implied to some by my continued participation in that forum. Many conversations were had on the subject, and in the end my decision was to walk. Some of those who have remained, and continue to associate with that particular individual, have family members who have potential security conflicts in being closely associated with an individual who voices such opinions, but it is their own decision whether to stay or to go and they have decided to stay. For me, the issue would have been a bit different if the individual was to remain just a simple poster, but even then the question as to whether the tone was becoming too strident was one that I was going to have to think about. I will say that I always considered it a personal decision as to the continuance of my participation there, and others were free to proceed as they see fit, it was simply I who could not continue.

Pixie – at 07:53

DemFromCT – at 07:44:

I completely agree, as I have said to anon_22, and I do believe that there are ways to say what we wish to say that can be more obscure and less inflamatory if we only make a simple effort.

These are really difficult issues, but there is a bridge to solving them somewhere I think if just a bit of consideration and care is made. I realize that anon_22 has tried to explain, but some of these issues are very unfamiliar ones to those of us in this country, and are hard to grasp.

anon_22 – at 07:53

Pixie, Let me just answer your question by referring you to my post at 00:55 and the link there. Thanks!

Pixie – at 08:00

anon_22 - at 7:53

Yes, I understand, and I hope others do too. I do not want you to have to make the decision I had to make because your insight and knowledge is much too valuable.

nann – at 08:06

Has anyone here, heard that the government is going to be revealing new information after today ( election day )..? I was called last night by a relative who is a doctor, as well as a sisiter in law who works the ICU at a local hospital, saying such a thing is going to happen. They were all warned yesterday. The USA Govt. Does not want to say this info before voting day. I was warned by the doctor ( relative to start preparing Now…and to say nothing about this as well, but thought you might all want to know.

Commonground – at 08:33

nann - at 08:06 - I wish you could have elaborated a little more on the subject matter. New information on what?

nann – at 08:49

Bird flu…I was not supposed to tell anyone…but people should know

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 08:51

Explicit SPAM on Menstruation Suggestion thread

Nann, can you post on the Rumors thread?

Monotreme – at 09:12

DemFromCT – at 07:44

Thanks for posting a link to my site. It seems to work, but is pretty cludgy right now. It needs a lot of work. I will work on it a little bit each day and will welcome any suggestions for improvement.

anonymous – at 11:00

attach a forum to your site, so we can all eventually move over there… No censorship, no moderation, no work.

FrenchieGirlat 11:04

As I was madly working on my self-requested test on bird flu on another thread, I found the links below which are the United Nations Preparedness Guides for UN staff in three languages.

I wanted to put them up on the Wiki while I was still on them, but I am at loss to decide in which chapter to put them. They are pdf files and 20 pages long, dated June 2006. They contain: - basic info on BF; - what the UN is doing for its staff in case of a pandemic; - a list of 6 weeks recommended supplies in food, water and medicines; - recommendations for travel in outbreak areas.

Would you have a quick look and decide where they would best fit, please?

English version 1: http://tinyurl.com/y5z7zv
English version 2: http://tinyurl.com/yl84mo - I could not see at first glance the difference between the two
French version: http://tinyurl.com/wyyb3
Spanish version: http://tinyurl.com/ymts2u

Thank you

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 11:05

anonymous – at 11:00

Don’t bet on it. There’s no place like that except Heaven & even it’s moderated!

DemFromCTat 12:59

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 11:05

LOL

FrenchieGirl – at 11:04

I will take a look (and thank you!), although in all honesty, today I’m a bit overextended for whatever reason ;-)

crfullmoon – at 14:35

(Just wanted to say, I can’t post at Monotreme’s new site; a problem I’ve run into before with my computer; I type the character-recognition code in correctly, and the blog-thing says I don’t… wonder if it’s my browser, or what? )

pogge – at 14:44

I’ve run into that on occasion, though not often, with other commenting systems that use a code like that. If I start over completely, such that a different code comes up, I usually get in the second time.

crfullmoon – at 15:21

well, I’d still been no go after 3 tries so, I thought I’d ask if it was because I’m too inept to switch to Firefox or something ;-)

thanks anyway

diana – at 15:54

Had no trouble. Wished Monotreme well. Asked if anyone has sent him a philadendron plant yet. They used to be the inevitable feature with hugh bows at any grand opening, though locally they have escalated to florals worthy of the entry hall at the Metropolitan Museam in NYC.. .. I was happy to see Anon-22 at 00.55 explaining the attempt of the gov. to put into place anti-sedition laws in Hong Kong. It makes things clearer as to her perspective. Two good individuals, I wish them both well.

AnnieBat 16:21

Anon_22 - I do get it - I totally agree with everything you (and the other moderators) have said. This is a privately owned site that is intended to assist people prepare for and understand a pandemic. As such we are fortunate to even have a discussion forum per se - and we must respect that opportunity to hold discussions - free from political, religious and cultural bias.

This is a truely international site that is viewed by peoples unknown. If we want them to assist us with our understanding and preparations, we must make it as easy as possible for them to do so. We must also respect all international law or ‘norms’ on how and what we communicate. (Quite frankly I was appalled when I read the thread that has caused this ‘issue’ - it was destructive - not constructive - to the cause of the Wiki.)

FWIW, I have given up making comments on most things as I am sick of being shot down - well that’s how it feels anyway. So, I will just continue to take the global community approach to assisting others as best as I can.

Thank you for all that you have done and continue to do. Long may it continue.

mcjohnston92 – at 16:36

Everyone,

I am so deeply saddened by the apparent departure (unannounced mostly) of so many of the great minds here. We are diminished without them. I have been watching fluwikie for about 2 years now—though only posting for a few weeks.

With the departures, I am no longer convinced that the fluwikie forum will be the first place we will get the best information when the pandemic breaks wide open—and that is unfortunate, because that is the primary reason that I believe many of us visit here so often.

I sincerely hope that the mods will find a way to reach out to those disgusted with recent events and encourage their return, perhaps assuring them that heavyhanded censorship is not the intention here on the wikie.

Bronco Bill – at 16:57

I am no longer convinced that the fluwikie forum will be the first place we will get the best information when the pandemic breaks wide open

I am. There are still many great minds at work here, and even though many have said in the past that they were leaving, most of them have come back time and again.

cottontop – at 16:58

mcjohnston92-

They do ultimately have the right to make the descisions that they do. And as Pixie stated, we can take it or leave it. I woulde prefer not to leave the Wiki. And I do believe there are many great minds here. The wiki will continue to be the best place around to get the best information and advice. We have an excellant gang here, and I want to continue to be apart of this gang.

DemFromCTat 17:09

We are what we are. The opinions of folks like AnnieB are vital, as are mcjohnston92 (even though they differ). Everyone is welcome, and self-restraint is requested.

The task of learning how to disagree with each other over important issues is an important one to master. We will need it when equally vexing questions arise.

crfullmoon – at 17:21

FrenchieGirl – at 11:04 I thought the start a worm farm to compost your waste, and, start a vegetable garden - think about what you could grow in the winter were nice touches to the 6-weeks supply of food, water, medical supplies. Also said critial job positions were voluntary? and said, consider they might not be able to travel home; might have to stay at their duty station once pandemic starts… Thanks for posting those.

ANON-YYZ – at 18:42

This is strange. I followed the link here and went to Monotreme’s site and was fully expecting strong or even provocative words. Well, I couldn’t find any reference to China conspiracy or intent to harm the rest of the world. I haven’t read everything. But first look suggests that it is much milder than here, may be even boring. If exactly the same content were posted here, it might just have been accepted without question. So why all this controversy in the first place? Cool heads prevail? Or Monotreme talked to his lawyers and found out that he being his own moderator would face the same constraints that the mods face here?

FloridaGirlat 18:56

FrenchieGirl – at 11:04

I wanted to put them up on the Wiki while I was still on them, but I am at loss to decide in which chapter to put them. They are pdf files and 20 pages long, dated June 2006.

We can post PDF Files on the wiki?

AnnieB – at 16:21

FWIW, I have given up making comments on most things as I am sick of being shot down - well that’s how it feels anyway. So, I will just continue to take the global community approach to assisting others as best as I can.

AnnieB… I think (for the most part) that 2 things contibute to the ill feelings generated when a person gets replys by certain posters.

1. We (myself included) do not think out our thoughts entirely, and the words we pick to type, do not end up meaning what we wanted them to mean.

2. Frustrations are high for everyone here. Things do not appear to be addressed at (any) the local, State or Federal level and it shows in our posts.

My thoughts on #2… I know here in Florida, the State, and local governments are frantically working to put plans in place. But, only dribs and drabs are getting out to the public. I partially understand the reasons….

If everyone who is so very involved here, will try to get involved in their community, then maybe some of the frustrations will go away… (or not…) But, it might help.

So AnnieB… don’t stop posting, just think that every poster who writes really has good intentions, until you see different. You have a lot to contibute…

JMO…

EnoughAlreadyat 19:24

So… Tom left too, because of whatever happened on the China thread? I understand Monotreme… and quite frankly think it is a great loss. (I wasn’t around to read the thread… so no I don’t know what the blaze went on. I do know he has been a great contributor.) And Tom… he’s gone too?

DemFromCTat 19:27

just think that every poster who writes really has good intentions, until you see different.

That’s my assumption.

Re pdf’s we can always link the source, we can’t host files directly.

Bird Guano – at 19:32

Bronco Bill – at 16:57

I am no longer convinced that the fluwikie forum will be the first place we will get the best information when the pandemic breaks wide open


I am. There are still many great minds at work here, and even though many have said in the past that they were leaving, most of them have come back time and again.

I am too, but I am NOT convinced it will survive from a technical perspective.

It’s wobbly on a SLOW day.

I firmly believe the wiki won’t be accessable when it’s most needed.

Clawdia – at 20:22

BG - that has been one of my major concerns about the Wiki. Even today, with what I assume was minimally increased traffic due to the developments in HK, there have been times I’ve been unable to access the site at all, and many other times when it was slower to load than pages were when I was on dial-up (I’m on high speed DSL now).

I’ve always thought there were great minds at work here - I only hope that doesn’t change over much.

Bronco Bill – at 20:29

Bird Guano – at 19:32 & Clawdia – at 20:22 --- I think you may find today, at least in the US, the whole Internet is running a bit slower than usual, not just FluWiki as a single site. It’s election day here, and tons more people than usual have been logged on all day to find out about election results.

As far as I know, pogge’s keeping the servers running smoothly, and I’m working on getting a lot of older threads closed and splitting longer threads when I can keep up with them.

Closed and Continued - Bronco Bill – at 21:16

XIX is done. Closing for length and opening new thread here

Last relevant posts copied to new thread

c3jmp – at 22:11

i’ve been lurking for over a year, and only started posting recently. i’d hoped the censorship thing had gone away, but folks still don’t seem to get it.

it’s not about censorship of speech in the US. it’s about saving as many lives as possible. there are 300 million in the US, and 6.6 billion world-wide. this site may physically reside in the US, but it does so on the Internet, and people contribute to it from around the world.

if this site did not have the focus of preparing for a pandemic (not a US epidemic), then perhaps it might be ok if another nation/state blocked it because of the ideas postulated here. if this were a political site, or any other kind of site that people have in the US (except one to help all people prepare for a pandemic), then i doubt many Americans would care if another nation/state blocked it. but that is NOT the case.

it’s not about American’s (or anyone else’s) right to vent/voice/rant to their heart’s content. it’s not about Americans - it’s about humanity - all people.

maybe people didn’t understand what i said before… if text gets posted to this site, and another nation/state is monitoring the cleartext traffic entering/leaving it over the Internet, when someone inside such a country pulls the content from this site (ie, in a browser), that text then passes though the monitoring that occurs within that nation/state (not here in the US). and if the monitors are looking for specific words within that text, this site may be flagged to be blocked - for people within that country - NOT here in the US. this one teensy little piece isn’t about the US.

i value my speech here in the US. but making a point on this website solely to win an arguement is not worth a single life. speech is important - no one is saying that people in the US should have their speech censored. why does everyone have to wear their values on their sleeve? there is quite a bit more to the world than the US - and I do love my country - but posting text that is offensive to other countries may cause this website to be blocked. and the people that live in those countries would not have the opportunity to learn from this site that we have. and more people will die.

is it really worth a human life just to make a point in an argument?

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.AskQuestionsOfTheModeratorsHereXIX
Page last modified on November 07, 2006, at 10:11 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Join in with Group Buying for Canned Butter Cheese and MR Es II

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Join in with Group Buying for Canned Butter Cheese and MR Es II

17 October 2006

Bronco Bill – at 12:24

Continued from here. “Pass the jelly, please…”


Opening post from previous thread:

Fully Prepped In SoCal – at 20:48

Hi All;

We have been toying with the idea of using our combined purchasing power to negotiate wholesale/discount/group pricing on preps we are already purchasing, and I’ve decided to take the lead and start one for canned butter from New Zealand, canned cheese from Australia by Kraft, and MRE’s. The idea is that individually we probably don’t merit a discount for a purchase of a case or two of something here and a case of something there. However, collectively, we are a large buying group that warrants special pricing and consideration IMHO.

So, I have taken the liberty of negotiating a potential group purchase for fellow fluwikians with the importer of the above products so we can all take advantage of our collective buying power. Now, just to put everyone’s mind at ease, I am in no way connected with this company or will not be in the middle in any way handling any money or anything like that.

After seeing how many people had already purchased or were interested in purchasing this canned butter and canned cheese specifically, and reading on another post about this company and complicated past group buys on some other forums (see thread “Canned Butter and Cheese Distributor” at http://tinyurl.com/hjmab for more background), I contacted the distributor directly and asked if it was feasible. They tell me that it is something that they would welcome, and that they can make it very easy for us just by issuing a coupon for us to use while shopping on their site. That lets each person purchase whatever quantity they want, pay for it however they want, and have it shipped right away without waiting for someone else to pay if it were going to be shipped all together.

So, if you (like me) are in the market for some more of this stuff (which by the way is my primary motivation for putting this together - as I’m sure someone will ask. I just want to save as much money as possible like the rest of us, so the more I can save us as a group, the more I will save personally on my purchases) or if you have thought about purchasing some after reading some of the different threads on it, then I need your help. The only hurdle I have left is that I promised them this afternoon that I would get them some idea of what kind of volume we would be talking about over the next few days so they can price it as far below retail for us as possible. And although I haven’t been told they won’t take my word for it, my goal is to show them this thread in a few days after we have gotten some collective feedback from the group as to what a bulk purchase may consist of.

To give you some information to help with the decision making process, the company is www.mrewholesalers.com, they sell retail through www.mredepot.com (you’ll see numerous posts with praise from fellow wikians on their good prices, speedy delivery and customer service) and the canned butter is commercial canned in New Zealand in 12 ounce cans and is sold in quantities of 6 cans, 12 cans and full cases of 24 cans. I suspect we will be looking at a price between $70 and $80 per full case after talking with them a bit (retails for $92), and shipping is based on your distance from them, but ranges from $10 to $20. The cheese is made by Kraft in Australia, and is sold in quantities of 6 cans, 12 cans and full cases of 36 cans. Each can is 8 ounces, and we could be looking at $20+ off of the retail of $90 on that as well. Shipping is about the same as the butter, but they tell me multiple cases ship together and there is a big savings for that. MREs come 12 to a case and retail for $65, so I’m looking for a healthy discount there too.

For more info on the company or the butter/cheese/MRE’s check out the following thread as well; Real Canned Butter for Cheap; http://tinyurl.com/ygyaqa Canned Butter and Cheese Distributor; http://tinyurl.com/hjmab

Now, I need everyone’s help if you are interested - please post your interest and the number of cases of each that you may potentially be in the market for, as I will keep a tally and take this back to them to get us the best deal possible. We’re not committing to anything by expressing our interest, but we will be sending them a strong message that if they want our business they will have to earn it. If anyone has any questions, let me know.

Thanks in advance for the support!


Fully Prepped In SoCal – at 09:48

Thanks Zeta for getting the e-mail address up before I had a chance! scyros@MREWholesalers.com is the correct e-mail address for our contact, sorry - should have posted it before. Steven Cyros is the VP, and he actualy told me to post his e-mail address in case anyone had any questions, so he won’t mind at all (although I suspect he is buried right now;-)

Glad this is working out so well, I’m tickled that we were able to pull this off!!

I’m ready for the next one now. So far we have two suggestions, Alpine Aire and Nitro-Pak - both good ones IMO!! Any other suggestions/consensus??

Fully Prepped In SoCalat 12:39

Thanks BB!! Here’s a recap of the ordering info;

PRICE; They are going to offer us a 21% discount (note, they started at 15% with me at 30%, and that is where we met). I stressed the fact that the volume would be larger for a better discount, and I think they understand our potential at this point. We spent some time on this thread so they could get a better understanding of where we were coming from, so thank you all for the great points and participation! They say that the margin is slimmer on some items, and their goal was to do a website-wide offer for us to include every product on the site without having to exclude any items. The sale will be active early this evening (they promised by 5:00 PM Pacific/8:00 PM Eastern (less than an hour – wow it’s been a long day), and all we have to do is enter the code “fluwikie” at check out (no quotes or caps) and the discount will be applied on our entire shopping cart.

TERMS: I got them to agree to keep this active until the end of the year!! They saw the value of being able to allow friends, neighbors and family, as well as the community to take advantage, and understand we will need time to spread the word. They also are cognizant of the fact that the holiday season is right around the corner, and that some of us have budgets and can’t necessarily purchase everything in one shot/month. So, our group discount will not expire until 12/31/06 – that gives us 2 ½ months!!

JWB – at 12:48

Fully Prepped In SoCal

FANTASTIC!!!

THANK YOU!

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 12:55

Cinda said on the first thread: A thought- do you think you can get ordering info from MREDEPOT? Like after a week- how much increased $ came in just from the Fluwikie promo? If it was substantial, and I’m certain it will be- it might be just the thing to convince another company to do the same thing for us.

I’m sure they have a way of tracking this…and it would be nice to know how they’ve done in the last 24 hours and then later down the road to see if it affected their profits just by the shear volume of purchasing. I’ve shared the info with another yahoo group I’m on and gave the info to my closest fire station last night because we were holding a meeting in their conference room. I’ll do the same for the other guys just down the road from us!

If you’re a member of a yahoo group or some other online group, remember to invite them to take advantage of this offer!

Analyst4mkts – at 13:02

Congrats on your success FPISC! As you look to negotiate group discounts with other vendors please keep in mind that some of us need to time our purchases. Given the rates you got at MREwholeslaers, I will most likely buy more than the 3 cases of MREs I had committed to…plus there are the other items that have become available with the discount. This will really put pressure on the bank account and I would hate to get locked out from other buys on a timing constraint. You did fabulous with the discount through the year end…it really helps us maintain financial flexibility.

Thanks again!

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 13:06

Analyst4mkts – at 13:02 you’re right of course….I’m hoping that if the company sees a good financial return on this effort, that they’ll consider extending the savings into the new year — it never hurts to ask as we draw nearer the deadline!

Snowhound1 – at 14:30

Just wanted to let you know that I just received an e-mail from mredepot which says my entire order was shipped today! Pretty speedy service I would think. :)

Oremus – at 15:05

Just ordered 2 cases butter, 2 cases cheese. Shipping for 1 case was 22 dollars for the 4 cases 84.5 dollars. Not much savings on shipping.

Bird Guano – at 15:18

Unfortunately UPS doesn’t discount on shipping until you reach hundred weight.

NawtyBitsat 15:58

The discount covered my shipping to Northern Wisconsin. Again, I wish to thank you, FPISC.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 16:02

Oremus – at 15:05 at least you didn’t have to pay an inflated shipping charge OR a handling charge!! And you probably saved enough making your purchase to have covered the shipping cost. Shouldn’t feel too bad about that!

Watching in Texas – at 17:25

Snowhound1 at 14:30 - yep, I just got one too. I will post again when order is rec’d. We are going to try out the butter and cheese and then may place another order - so far, excellent service.

seazar – at 18:56

i ordered last night, and they shipped today- can’t beat service and prices. thanks so much for helping put this together for all of us!!

Bird Guano – at 20:37

bump so it doesn’t get lost in the thread closings.

NawtyBitsat 20:58

Ordered at 1pm, shipping email at 6:36pm. Now that’s service.

Kim – at 21:14

I was playing around on the net and did a Google search for *Kraft canned cheese* and came up with this news article…

“The Strathmerton (Australia) plant will also lose production of the cheese spread and canned cheese currently made for Middle East consumers when Kraft opens a new manufacturing site in that market.”

http://www.confectionerynews.com/news/ng.asp?id=67995-kraft

Looks like you better get your canned cheese now before it begins being manufactured in the Middle East. I’d much rather be eating something that an Aussie produced than something made by people who generally don’t have our best interests at heart.

Kim – at 21:37

According to Kraft Australia’s website, the canned cheese will be produced in the Middle East by mid-2008.

“focus on domestic production at the Strathmerton processed cheese plant as cheese spread and canned cheese currently produced for Middle East consumers transitions to a new Kraft manufacturing site in the Middle East by mid-2008.”

http://www.kraftfoods.com.au/kraft/page?siteid=kraft-prd&locale=ausm1&PagecRef=2490&Mid=41

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 22:01

Ordered at 10:17am, shipping email at 5:06pm & a backorder notice we were all aware of already— we’re not slowing them down a bit — yet!!! :-)

mojo – at 22:10

Could someone please tell me what the price per case of mre’s came out to? I am on day 21 of sitting with my dad while he is in the hospital and my brain is like cheese. Thanks

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 22:13

$51 and change sorry about your dad…….been there with both parents

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 22:14

Or about $4.25 per meal

mojo – at 22:20

Thank you so much!

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 22:26

mojo – at 22:20 take care of yourself too, we’ll remember you both in our prayers

Texasgirl – at 23:09

I sent this email to them earlier for a question that I had and received the following response. Thought others would be interested.

Hi Terri;

You are very welcome! Great idea – I don’t mind at all if you post, thanks for thinking of it. That will save me from figuring out how to post it myself, so I appreciate it!

Thanks again, and let me know if I can answer any more questions for you OR the group!!

-Steven


Sent: Tuesday, October 17, 2006 5:08 PM To: Steven L. Cyros Subject: RE: A few questions.

Thanks Steven for your quick response. If you don’t mind I will post this on the wikie. Surely others have the same question and it may help to keep your e mail volume down..

Thanks again,

Terri

“Steven L. Cyros” <scyros@MREwholesalers.com> wrote:

Hi Terri;

It is I who should be thanking you – we are grateful for the opportunity with the forum members, and are very appreciative of the business!

You ask a great question. The butter, cheese and meats will probably last 10 to 15 years. The folks in New Zealand who can the butter say indefinitely, Kraft says 10 to 15 years on the cheese, and Werling and Sons say 8 to 10 years – but we have had an independent group test the packaging on all three products (just 3 weeks ago on the canned meats) and their expected shelf lives, and of course direct sunlight will shorten any shelf life – but kept cool you can plan on 10 years for sure according to the reports. The contents will most likely also be fine at the 15 year mark (i.e. not spoiled), but you may lose some of the nutritional value. When that happens, you will just find that some or all of the normal vitamins and minerals may wind up decreasing from the 10th year to the 15th year – but the food will still be safe for consumption and will still provide good calories in the event of an emergency. If kept cool enough, you will most likely exceed the 15 year mark, but we’re not exactly sure how far out it will go at that point. A good rule of thumb on any canned food item is throw it out if the can swells – and the best thing about meat and dairy products is that your nose will know if the food spoils after you open a can, so it won’t make it into your mouth in the event you find a spoiled can 15 years from now.

Hopefully that helps, but if you need any additional information, please don’t hesitate to call on me.

Thank you again!

-Steven


Sent: Tuesday, October 17, 2006 2:54 PM To: scyros@MREWholesalers.com Subject: A few questions.

Hi,

I am a member of fluwikie and have a question for you. I am interested in purchasing the canned cheese, butter and some of the meats. Could you please give me an idea of the shelf life of these items? Thank you so much for your time and for the opportunity that you have given our forum.

Fully Prepped In SoCalat 23:12

Hi All;

I’m tickled to hear that everything went well. I kind of thought we would stump them on the shipping - but just had an e-mail waiting for me when I got home, so my order is on it’s way too… Amazing.

Good point on getting them to give us some sort of testimonial - that’s an awesome idea! I’ll ask the question and get back to everyone. I’d also like to see how they did today/this week/this month, so I’ll see if I can get my hands on that info as well.

Interesting info on the Kraft cheese - I don’t think it will be available in the US for much longer if it is going to be made in the middle east… Probably be harder to bring through customs. I’ll ask that also. I better get my my next order in a few days early next month just to be safe.

Thanks again for the praise and kind words all! I’ll see if I can start putting feelers out tomorrow on some of the other companies suggested - I’ll have more time tomorrow as I don’t need to be on the road all day. I’ll keep you posted.

Oremus – at 23:57

Got an email that my order was shipped. Less than 4 hours after I placed it.

18 October 2006

youngmom – at 00:01

Hi FPISC, I’m wondering why you didn’t make your purchase while you were at their place, could’ve saved you on the shipping cost which would have been significant savings! They do also accept pick up orders, don’t they?

Fully Prepped In SoCalat 08:54

Hi Youngmom; I thought about it, but was afraid to give the impression that I was just negotiating on my behalf. I figured if I said “and by the way here is what I want”, it would discount the potential of the group buy in their minds and we may not have gotten the discount that we did. Plus, because I’m in Southern California, the shipping wasn’t too bad, and the discount more than made up for it. I think they do offer pick up as well, as I’m pretty sure I have seen that on their website.

Medical Maven – at 09:49

FPISC-My order is on the way as well. MREDEPOT is a highly-efficient, hands-on, courteous outfit. Hope our little deal gives them a big boost.

And you, FPISC, are a first class act. : )

Fully Prepped In SoCalat 09:58

Thank you for the VERY kind words MM!! Glad to hear it worked out for you too. I know I have been impressed as well. I’m waiting to hear back from them on how well this did for them in the first day - I’ll post their reply as soon as I hear back. I’m dying to know!!

I plan on researching the next one tomorrow from suggestions already made - I’ll keep everyone posted.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 10:01

Well said Medical Maven!

I may place another order today — DH balanced the check book yesterday so I need to buy spare Berkey filters & another repair kit and more canned meat!

Cinda – at 11:11

I ordered and didn’t rcv my shipping confirmation like you all did, so I sent a request for info to Steve and he got right back to me with the info I needed. I am very pleased with the service we are receiving from this company.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 12:29

Cinda, is your spam alert set high enough that it might have put the confirmation in a spam box or in your trash?

Fully Prepped In SoCalat 13:07

OK, I just got the poop from mredepot on the orders - thought we would all get a kick out of seeing this. Yesterday they shipped 49 orders with our discount totaling $13,069 (plus their regular business). Today they have received 8 more orders totaling $1,127 (as of about 9:30 this morning when he e-mailed me back) and they are bracing for more. He said we definately taxed their shipping yesterday, but they got every single order out that was in by 3:30 - they even had to drive a few up to UPS that came in after the truck left. He said he knew I would be giving him a hard time if they missed the same day turn-around, so they even had the receptionist in the warehouse packing boxes!! Too funny.

Steven wanted me to pass on that they are extremely pleased with the progress on the discount, that we exceeded their expectations, having hit almost half of what we promised in the first 24 hours - and that they are going to go out and try to use their buring power to bring in some new and hard to find items for us over the next couple of weeks to try and say thanks. He also asked me to pass on a round of thanks to everyone for the business and the great calls and e-mails, as I guess a bunch of us sent thanks and praise by phone and e-mail. He promised to give me updates on the program whenever we want so we can use it to help with other group buys for credibility - and offered to have any other companies we think we may want to work with in the future call them to verify the numbers any time, and that they would give high praise for the value of our word for following through on what we promised to deliver. So a big thanks to everyone for making me feel good about delivering what I promised we would!!

deborah – at 13:12

I just placed my order, a case of butter, a sample can of the cheese (to try before buying whole cases), a nifty 5-in-1 Emergency/Survival tool, and Medic-Surgical Instrument kit. The discount was just as promised, and I got my order confirmation via email right away. Hopefully my order will be shipped as quickly as everyone else’s. If this cheese is good, I plan on ordering several cases over the discount offer period, as well as butter and other items. Thank you again for all your work here Fully Prepped In SoCal. And another thank you to the folks at MREdepot.com for their offer to us. ^_^

Goju – at 13:18

this would make a great press release.

Bird Guano – at 13:56

I think they will see an order surge over the weekend for Monday, when people have more time to browse the site and put together additional orders.

Kim – at 15:02

Wow, I am REALLY impressed with the group buy that FPISC put together for us, THANK YOU! I have been wanting to order the cheese especially, and the butter for quite some time but just balked at the cost… with this group buy, I saved enough to completely cover the shipping charges as well as still have a pretty good discount from the normal case price!

Because DH doesn’t like cheese and wouldn’t see the value of such a purchase ;-) I emailed MREDepot right after placing the order to see if they could time the shipping so it would arrive on a day when DH wasn’t home. I told them that I didn’t care if it meant a 2 week delay in shipping if they could try to time it to arrive on such a day. NO problem! came the VERY speedy reply from them, it works out perfectly that if they ship it today that it will get here on a day that I requested! I am VERY impressed with this company and their great service. I WILL be ordering more from them as finances allow. Thanks again!

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 15:25

Fully Prepped In SoCal – at 13:07 That is FANTASIC news!!!! WOW - damn we’re good! :-)

I hope their receptionist doesn’t quit! Girl, I think you are going to be amazed before the end of the weekend at their figures vs what you promised them.

I hope our overseas posters remember that they can have something sent to a relative in the states or Canada and THEN have their friend or family member ship it on to them in different countries — that way they still take advantage of the discount, even though there would be dual cost for shipping to an overseas location.

And if you want to have something sent to someone else, if you use PayPal, just change the shipping address & your shipment will go to the address you enter, I guess it’s the same with using a charge card directly, you would just type in a different shipping address.

Kim, that’s so funny about wanting the shipment to come when your husband isn’t home — I wish that would work more often at my house, but the delivery guy always seems to come late on the days when I’m getting something shipped to me, and comes early to all the rest of my neighbors. :-)

Kim – at 15:37

Yeah, that’s the one thing that worries me is the UPS guy will pull up past his usual 5pm arrival time, just in time for DH to pull in after work. Hopefully either UPS will be on the ball that day, or DH will get home late :-) Think I’ll be sure to tell DH on that day that I’m making one of his *least* favorite dinners so he won’t be in any hurry!

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 15:57

Kim, you’re a riot!!

Listen everyone, I would suggest (even though I KNOW all of you have dozens of can openers already) that you invest in one that cuts the lid away in such a way as to not leave rough edges and also makes the lid ‘reusable’ — that’s what will work perfectly on your cheese and butter cans! They’re too big for plastic sealing tops like pet food cans have, and foils and plastic wraps won’t seal it as well as reapplying the lid could. I THINK I ordered one at www.onetouchopener.com, but I haven’t gotten a confirmation email from them so I need to call them and find out if I ordered 4 different times trying to get ONE to go through.

If you’re interested in that product at that website, they’ll offer you an improved ‘deluxe’ model for more than the $14.95 and then you’ll get an offer for a flashlight (Faraday shakeable one) and for binacolors (can’t spell that right)and you have to click through all these things with either a yes or a no to get to the end.

Anyway, you might want to consider one from them or find one on ebay or somewhere.

Bird Guano – at 16:17

Nothing beats a Mirro wall mount can opener and a butter bell.

LOL

Hooah.

Thom – at 16:19

The group buy that FPISC put together for us is great. My order, though small, will cost only $1.52 to ship to VA thanks the the discount. Big savings over the normal $87.29 cost. Many Thanks…

2beans – at 17:56

Just got off the phone with mredepot. They said they don’t like to take orders over the phone b/c they don’t like to have access to credit card info. Told them I don’t like that either, that’s why I’m calling - to arrange an order and pay by postal money order! Absolutely no problem. The man, Steven, was so very, very nice and so tickled to have so much businiess. Most pleasant internet-related transaction I can recall. Yeah. I know I’m a Luddite.

youngmom – at 17:59

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 15:57

Those can openers you mentioned are available at Linens N Things, at least at the store close to me. I used a 20% off coupon that you can usually find at magazines/newspapers (I get mine by slow mail since I’m in their mailing list), but don’t remember how much I paid for it but it’s usually at the msrp. They also accept competitor’s coupons such as Bed Bath and Beyond. So with the coupon and no shipping fee I think it may be a better deal for those interested. BTW, the product received pretty good reviews at Amazon.com.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 19:40

youngmom – at 17:59

EXCELLENT information — I hadn’t thought of that….I know there are great can openers out there of all kinds — I have one that opens jars too that I love, as well as 2 manual ones in each BOB but none of them cut so you have a reusable lid remaining that won’t cut you — something else good about it during a crisis.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 20:01

Hey,

I wrote a thank you to Steven at MREdepot & the employees today & late today I got the neatest reply that I thought needed to be shared with you — it’s funny, shows a lot of creativity on MREdepot’s part to face and succeed when presented a challenge, & is touching to the point of tears in it’s sincerety.

I’ll copy what I wrote to him first since I kind of wrote it as being representative of ALL of us, since he refers to it in his reply:

I wrote:

Steven and all employees at MREdepot,

I’ve purchased from you thru ebay in the past and you were wonderful then, and now that our fluwikie group is purchasing at the very gracious discount you’ve allowed us, you’re just top-notch in my book!

We thought we might slow you down a little on your shipping with an influx of orders, but you guys are on top of EVERYthing and getting our orders out as smoothly as ever! You’re absolutely amazing and so very nice to allow us to have this opportunity and to share it with our families, friends and our local first responders.

I’m more fortunate, due to a small family, than some with big families, in that I might from time to time have more money to spend on good quality products, but I’m always looking for good deals on those good quality products, no matter how blessed our finances might be.

But there are moms, daughters, sons-in-laws etc, on fluwikie that are trying to not only take care of their own household, but also trying to prepare for others not under their own roofs and on extremely tight budgets already, and your generosity to allow us a deep discount AND to allow us to purchase through the end of the year is such a blessing to so many people who are scraping together every dollar they can find to take care of others, no matter what the source of a potential threat.

Our prayers will continually be with your business, that you continue to prosper, you gain even more advertising through our involvement with you and that your own families will be blessed by your efforts to help others.

Thank you so much,

Rose Heath, I’m-Workin’-On-It (fluwikie), nappingcat (ebay)

(THIS IS THE TYPE OF COMPANY I JUST LOVE TO DO BUSINESS WITH) Here is his very touching reply :

Hi Rose;

I didn’t realize we had crossed paths before, it’s great to see you again - thank you very much!!

I hope you don’t mind, but I printed out your e-mail and put it up in the lunch room earlier today. I personally really appreciate the kind words and support very much, and I can tell you on behalf of everyone here who has read your e-mail (and I think everyone has by now, as I have gotten a lot of positive comments on it today) we really appreciate the time you took to touch base with us AND for all the business, so from the bottom of my heart, thank you Rose!!

I will say honestly that we were right at our limit yesterday, but I made a promise to your rep that I wouldn’t fall behind, and although we almost did (we had to drive a few packages to UPS at the end of the day because we missed our 4:00 truck with some stragglers), we were very happy to be able to get everything out! To be honest with you, it was a great challenge that we used internally to bring every one together here - we even had a couple of contests and handed out some prizes, so it was a great opportunity to pull together as a team focused on a common challenge. I don’t think there was a single person that was spared a shift in the warehouse yesterday - and I think right down to the last one they had a good time when all was said and done. I know we all grew a little bit closer yesterday as a company - and being able to read words like yours today after that exercise has really made a lot of people feel extremely proud.

We obviously feel the same sense of purpose on being prepared for the unknown - natural or man-made, and knowing that there are so many others who feel the same way is always encouraging. It is a tough thing even to know that you and your family are prepared, while at the same time wondering whether your extended family, neighbors or friends have thought ahead. So this was a very good fit not only for our business but for our personal beliefs and convictions - I only wish we had thought to approach you folks on it first rather than the other way around! If we just helped one person put some food away who may not have at the regular price, then it was definitely worth it!!!

On a business/professional note - we have certainly benefited from this relationship already, and it has only been a couple of days - so I thank you and the group VERY much for the opportunity Rose! As word gets out both on the forum and through family, friends, and the local communities I am sure this will just continue to grow - so please pass on our thanks to everyone, as we are very grateful for the chance to try and put something together like this. I’m hopeful that if we can show the success of this offer over the next few weeks, that I will be able to convince everyone here that we should do this on a permanent basis for all. So thank you in advance for getting the word out - I hope that together we will create more awareness in our respective local communities for the need to plan ahead!

Warmest Regards,

-Steven

LauraBat 20:07

Ah. Something to make you smile. A company that acutally cares about its customers and does its best to meet or exceed expectations. Not enough of those these days.

yes, I’m bitter. Today the lazy employees at BJs wouldn’t help me get my heavy storage shelves into my car and I banged myself pretty good trying to lug them around. I’ll be placing my order (gladly) with MRE tomorrow.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 20:15

LauraB – at 20:07 I’m so sorry you had a boo-boo & it sounds like it really hurt! But I’ll bet your shelves are great & MRE will be glad to help you fill them up!!

Bird Guano – at 21:10

Viral marketing at it’s best.

Bird Guano – at 21:11

LMAO, I just thought about what I typed after I typed it.

No pun intended on the viral part.

Mom of 3+1/2 – at 21:36

Let me see if I can post this on the RIGHT thread this time…

…Just and FYI - my order from mredepot arrived today, packed very well too. Now that is an amazing turnaround… That’s got to be the fastest internet order ever for me! Definately an outstanding company!!!!!!

Thank you again Fully Prepped!!!!

Snowhound1 – at 21:38

I’m Working on It- I had to smile when I read your post. :) I had ordered some butter some months ago and when it arrived I oohed and aahed about what a pretty can it had arrived in. My friend went out and bought me one of the non damaging can openers, so I wouldn’t “damage” the can when I opened it. :) She told me at the time that she had bought one of the can openers for herself as well. I think I will give her some of the new butter that I just ordered from mredepot, so she will have some and be able to enjoy it as well.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 22:10

Snowhound1 – at 21:38 Boy you’re good to your friends — she’ll love that, especially knowing how important it is to you-and how good it is!

LMWatBullRunat 22:46

Traveling on business the rest of the week but will make my order online on Sunday DV.

deborah – at 23:06

I forgot to check the status for awhile, but my order shipped today, same day as I placed it. These people are really awesome. Totally above and beyond, in my eyes.

I shared the info with friends, so I am hoping they will order too. These are the kind of people I will always do business with, thanks to their attitude and response.

Fully Prepped In SoCalat 23:51

Hi All;

Looks like mredepot is living up to their promises, glad it is working out so well for everyone!

OK, I’m ready to start thinking about the next one now (or is it too early?). So far I have three suggestions (unless I missed one - if so, let me know); Honeyville Grain, Alpine Aire and Nitro-Pak. Which one should we put at the top of the list?

Or, should we wait a little bit so we can all build our bank accounts back up;-)???

19 October 2006

LizBat 00:02

Is the discount for just butter, cheese, MREs, or for other things on their web site, too?

jplanner – at 00:05

you outed yourself I’m working on it!/ROse! thanks for taking time for the letter to Steve at mredepot. and of course, again to FPISC for setting this up. I LOVE these win/win/win scenarios. It also sounds like they treat their employees really well, with respect. It is so great to do busine

will place my order tomorrow to avoid weekend rush.

thanks also I’m Working On IT (what are you working on…? Prepping I suppose?!)for link to that no-damage can opener. I had never heard of such a thing.

jplanner – at 00:06

that is, it is great to do business with companies like this. Sorry

Meserole in FL – at 00:10

How about Emergency Essentials? (BePrepared.com) They seem to be less expensive than Alpine Aire.

mj – at 00:18

What about: providentliving.com lots of goodies PleasantHillGrain.com big berkeys? I like beprepared nad honeyville too. Mostly I’m thrilled to get my butter and cheese that I had given up on because of cost/shipping. Way to go.

Anon7588 – at 05:58

Emergency Essentials gets my vote. Fantastic selection of goodies.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 06:03

Meserole in FL – at 00:10 YES I was going to suggest that too,

mj – at 00:18 more good ones!

LizB – at 00:02 It’s for EVERYthing!

Fully Prepped In SoCal – at 23:51 Could you do more than one at a time?

Fully Prepped In SoCalat 09:00

I don’t see why we couldn’t try all of them - good idea I’m-workin’-on’it!! I’ll get an e-mail out to them all today, and lets see what we get back!!

Meanwhile I’ll try and see if I can get mredepot to give us a daily tally, as we’ll use it for the next ones to show we deliver what we promise.

I’ll keep you posted…

Carrey in VA – at 09:07

I’ll vote for honeyville grain I need some more eggs LOL

TreasureIslandGalat 09:18

I placed my order last night for powdered eggs, cheese and butter. My gf was actually very supportive of that order. Butter and eggs were something she really wanted to be sure we had. I was suprised that she was letting me order. Sometimes she reigns me in, and other times she tells me to go for it. lately she has been more into the whole prepping idea. She likes that we have a good stash of things now and that “the bf closet” offers all sorts of interesting “treats” when cravings come up. We have finally moved towards using and replacing some of the preps now instead of jsut storing things. This makes it seem less “weird” and more like we just keep well stocked…like our grandma’s used to be when they had pantries. Not many people keep pantries anymore. But I’m glad I have one now! We never seem to be “needing” anything any more! -no need to “run to the store” for 1 or 2 things. We get to buy only when things are on sale to keep well stocked. I’ve noticed that overall we are saving a lot mroe money on groceries.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 10:30

TreasureIslandGal – at 09:18 that’s great that you both see the benefits of not only storing but rotating & I’ll be you WILL safe a LOT more money on groceries since you can shop more strategically.

Oremus – at 11:26

Carrey in VA – at 09:07

With Honeyvilles low shipping, I think they effectively have a discount built in.

Carrey in VA – at 17:44

Oremus - at 11:26

Your right of coarse, but it can’t hurt to ask.

Anonynous Anne – at 17:58

Just placed my order for butter and cheese…. now I can sleep tonight! lol I am thinking of making baskets up for some of my family members for Christmas gifts with items such as these and information print outs…. one way to get them all prepared! Thanks!

Fully Prepped In SoCalat 19:55

Oremus – at 11:26; good point on the shipping, I noticed that today. But I agree that it can’t hurt to ask. Whenever a company does free or low-cost shipping, I automatically assume that it is built into their profit margin… After all, they are in business to make a profit. So, I’d be willing to bet there is room in there for them to do something for us above any beyond the low cost shipping.

I tracked down the contact and e-mail information for everyone we talked about, and just sent them all an introduction to our group buy offer (same as I did with mredepot). So, now we wait and see who gets back to us first, and if they all do, what we need to do to move it to the next level. I’ll keep everyone in the loop!

Also, be sure to post any feedback on mredepot here, and and too keep passing the word, as I’ll check back with them tomorrow to see how sales went so I can post it, as I will no doubt be directing many more companies to this thread as proof of our purchasing potential!

Thanks!!

Fully Prepped In SoCalat 20:36

AA - gift baskets with some different items, information print outs and some articles is a great idea… Thanks for just taking care of half my Christmas list this year! Wish I thought of that.

Bump - Bronco Bill – at 20:41
I’m-workin’-on-it – at 23:30

bump

20 October 2006

Oremus – at 00:29

Fully Prepped In SoCal – at 19:55

Until you get down to their cost, there’s always room for a discount. Even though I have enough dried eggs for 6 months, I can always work on a year; Put me down for a case of eggs and oxygen absorbers if you decide to do your magic with Honeyville.

jplanner – at 00:29

Just placed my order! got some eggs and milk substitute while I was at it to store secretly for my friends little ones, their parents being confirmed non-preppers dispite my efforts. My they do have expensive shipping tho!! I was surprised..because you can’t really know until the end when you’ve gone thru the whole process. My shipping was a good third of my order which didn’t seem normal but maybe it is for these kind of companies?

It about equals out I think because the base prices are very good (crank radio, solar battery chargers both much less than I’d ever seen them for, got both). DIdn’t read until after about Honeywell being much cheaper shipping wise as above, would have gotten eggs their instead. At least I am supporting the fluwikie cause or at least reputation in some sense. At least they seem to be good people. No one else seems surprised about shipping, my incling is this is normal for such companies and I am just not aquainted with that…can anyone confirm?

NC Seeking – at 09:10

Fully Prepped In SoCal thank you! Placed my order and rec shipping notice should be here on Oct 24, wow than k you very much for your hard work on this!

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 11:32

jplanner – at 00:29 The powdered products way a ton compared to the dehydrated stuff so if you’ve only been buying dehydrated it will seem high. If you’ve bought eggs before bo back and look at your invoice from a previous purchase from someone else except for Honeyville where they have a set ship price but their product price is high instead.

I have a couple of #10 cans of orange drink (I think it is) and milk drink upstairs that I have to use both hands for if I’m moving them because they’re just awkardly heavy for just one hand!

The shipping is the actual UPS rate and they’re shipping from California. The only way it could be better would be if they had a warehouse on MY side of the great Mississippi! I ordered Monday, should arrive this coming Monday (I’m in Alabama) and I’m VERY pleased with that turn-around.

hidden here – at 11:53

Good morning, I placed my order Monday night for 1 case each of butter, cheese and MRE. And I received it ALL this morning!!! Thanks to all.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 14:13

bump

AzNewBeat 14:19

Afternoon Everyone, just placed my order. Was small but plan to order every two weeks till i get everything I need. This is so Awesome. Thanks so much Fully Prep for setting this up.

LizBat 18:30

Quick price comparision:

MRE wholesalers vs Honeyville: pre-discount, Honeyville is cheaper on Honeyville’s own products. Post-discount plus shipping difference, it may be a wash.

Pre-discount Eggs, whole: M = 12.95, H = 10.99 Freeze dry fruit combo: M = 85.95, H = 74.99 etc

But - when it comes to grains and many other items, Honeyville vs Walton, looks like Walton comes out way ahead even though Honeyville’s shipping is superficially less.

Hard red wheat, 50 pound bag: H = 36.89, W = 14.95 Pearled barley, 50 lb bag (or 2 25 lb bags): H = 36.85, W = 14.50 etc

(Also, Walton has a wider variety of grains including many organic; when I called to ask Honeyville if they had any non-GE grains, I was told many of their grains are GE. I haven’t noticed that they sell anything organic but I haven’t checked every item.)

Walton price list here: http://waltonfeed.com/cart/all.html#K

IIRC, Survival Acres drop ships walton and mountain house and alpine at either the same price you’d get buying directly or often at a slight price reduction.

Do some price comparisons. (Watch out for differences in packaging sizes.) No place is cheapest on everything.

Snowhound1 – at 18:35

Got my order today, pleased with everything except the packing peanuts…I hate those things. Also, it arrived before my DH got home. >;) All put up now! LOL

Carrey in VA – at 18:37

LizB – at 18:30

your right, no one place is cheapest on everything. Though what I have learned is that normally you can buy white flour, corn meal, and dry milk cheaper locally than over the net when you factor in shipping. But then, the only food stuffs I’m buying, that I don’t buy normally, is the dehydrated eggs. Honeyville grains are by far the cheapest when it comes to them.

Kelly from MI – at 18:42

Suggestion:

Put the site to order from and the discount “fluwikie” at the top of the page for anyone that is new to easily see -

LizBat 19:13

Those who received cans from MRE - what condition did they arrive in? Back when I bought some meat from werling, 5 of 12 cans were somewhat dented. (I wouldn’t mind, except that all dents were at seams, whether top, bottom, or side; and to the extent I might want to make up gifts of canned foods like premium butter, dented cans make unattractive gifts.)

This is apparently a common problem, as the Werling package included a letter saying all cans were undented when packed. UPS denies responsibility because there’s no damage to the external packaging.

Is the butter/cheese arriving undented?

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 20:10

LizB – at 19:13 I’ve received some in the past, but no dents & I remember getting the letter. MRE hasn’t sent cans to any of us yet because their meat delivery isn’t into the warehouse yet — ask at the end of NEXT week.

Fully Prepped In SoCalat 20:50

Hi Everyone;

Couple of quick updates for everyone;

1) mredepot e-mail me the numbers for this week because I said we wanted progress reports, and as of about 2:00 when they e-mailed me, they were showing a total of 73 orders with our discount representing $14,753 in sales. As an interesting footnote - he told me they were considering making this a longer term sale if the numbers continue this way, maybe even permanent… Needless to say, I think they are pleased!

2) Emergency Essentials go back to me first (earlier today) on our group buy proposal; Their answer was that “they don’t normally do programs like that.” Their suggestion was that we subscribe to their e-mail news letter, as they send out “periodic specials on discounted items and close-outs”… Needless to say, I am going to see if I can work my way up the ladder to someone else, as that is not what we are looking for.

3) Honeyville Grain also got back to me a little while ago. They said it may be something that they will consider. When I mentioned we were doing it with mredepot, they said they know them very well and asked if I minded if they called them to see how it was going. I said no problem, and we agreed to follow-up again the first part of the week. So there may be some opportunity there.

Kim – at 21:09

LizB, if you’ve ever had much dealings with UPS then you know that you stand great odds that your package will arrive bent, dented, smashed, broken or mangled. I’ve had friends who worked in the local UPS shipping facility who say it is VERY common for packages to be kicked across the floor, thrown and bounce on the floor, etc. As a small business owner, I had plenty of rotten experiences with their shipping, both with what I received and what (little) I shipped with them. I personally don’t know how they stay in business… well, I guess it’s because their rates on heavy things are lower than anyone else. I found them always to be a PITA to deal with and soon switched to USPS, but then everything I shipped was small and lightweight. Since no one could afford to have this heavier stuff shipped by USPS, then I guess we’re stuck with the crappy UPS “service”. I haven’t gotten my order from MRE Depot yet, but since it’s shipping via UPS, I’m sure there’ll be some dents and dings.

21 October 2006

LizBat 01:00

I figured so many people have recently ordered butter and cheese, some must have opened the carton and could report the condition of the cans!

NawtyBitsat 01:15

I ordered butter a few weeks ago from them and 4 of the cans had superficial dents in them…no major damage. I have 2 cases of cheese coming on Monday…will let you know.

KimTat 01:15

Just placed my order, cheese, beef and mre’s. I ordered butter from them several weeks before, The buter came in a box inside another box with peanuts..no dents and it took about a week to get to me. Was pleased with the speed of the service, quality and their follow-up with emails and tracking.

Watching in Texas – at 19:16

Got my order yesterday and none of the cans were dented. We were so pleased with the quality of the butter that I ordered a case of it today. The service, BTW, was excellent. I did not get an email from UPS where I could track my order, emailed MREdepot and within minutes they had emailed me with the information.

Thanks again FPiSC for doing such a wonderful job in obtaining the discount.

Dreamweaver – at 19:30

Received my case of cheese here in TX 55 hours after I placed the order. It came in a box inside another box with peanuts..no dents. Wife said lets taste it, I told her hands off, it is only to look at. :-)

Watching in Texas – at 19:39

Dreamweaver - LOL! It was really difficult to open that can of butter:) But we had to know if we liked it, so we could order more!!

tjclaw1 – at 21:35

Fully Prepped In SoCal – at 20:50

I’m glad it is going so well, and thank you for all your work.

I haven’t placed my order yet, but plan to. I’m going together with a co-worker on the order so we can share shipping and we may split some cases.

I’m sure we’ll be ordering more too, since the discount is through the end of the year. It would be great if they would extend it, especially since Christmas is just around the corner.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 23:59

Snowhound1 – at 18:35 Got my order today, pleased with everything except the packing peanuts…I hate those things.

hehehehe…you obviously don’t sell on eBay — if someone mails you something in a sturdy box WITH shipping peanuts to boot, that’s treasure in itself for those of us who reuse packaging! :-)

I’ll be placing another order tomorrow.

I’m please Honeyville Grains is at least willing to contact MREdepot to talk about the idea — that’s a GOOD thing!

22 October 2006

NawtyBitsat 17:19

FYI, my local Cub Foods had cans of the Kraft cheese until about 2 hours ago. They were in the ethnic section, marked DISCONTINUED and were $3.63 a can.

The Cub in Duluth, MN has only one severely dented can left. There are Cubs all over the Twin Cities, though.

Good Hunting.

senegal1 – at 23:08

I am having a problem ordering from MREdepot. Is anyone having the same problem? I click on the button that puts it in my shopping cart and it goes in but only one item can be there at a time and the next item bumps out the first. When I go to check out it says that I have nothing in my shopping cart. What am I doing wrong? I would think it should be obvious since they are trying to sell something. Also I can`t find the phone number on the site either which seems strange. Otherwise I would call them. Since most other people on here have ordered and don`t seem to be having this problem, I assume it is something I am doing. Any suggestions?

Bird Guano – at 23:18

Sounds like a cookie or popup is being blocked.

23 October 2006

UTmomat 00:22

A few weeks ago I ordered one case of cheese and one of butter (before the discount.) I ordered on a Thursday and they were at my door by Saturday morning, in perfect condition. Amazing! I just ordered 3 cases of cheese and 4 of butter for friends who are prepping. They had sampled my cheese and butter and were very impressed. MREdepot is a terrific company! I’ve told other friends and family out-of-state about the discount and they are ordering, too.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 00:30

senegal1 – at 23:08 If you look in the Contact Us section, I think you’ll find a phone number there…..I saw it a couple of places, but can’t remember exactly where.

If you don’t find it let us know again and we’ll post it for you.

I’m heading off to bed!

number 10 cans – at 02:41

One company that might be worth considering is grandma’s country kitchen in utah. They sell dehydrated soy milk that might help out others with lactose intolerant children (that’s how I found them a while back through fluwikie). Also, good for infants. They have a program of monthly shipments which lead to a year’s supply of food. I haven’t tried the soy - don’t think I could tell if it tasted good or not. But their customer support and shipping time was great. And, I’m sure others are in the same boat and it’s not so easy to find.

Edna Mode – at 07:50

LizB – at 18:30 But - when it comes to grains and many other items, Honeyville vs Walton, looks like Walton comes out way ahead even though Honeyville’s shipping is superficially less.

Yes, that’s true. But Walton says right on it’s Web site that it can take three to four weeks to ship. That’s a period of time I’m not comfortable waiting (not saying we shouldn’t pursue discounts with them, just saying for me…). I have ordered from Walton 1X, and while pleased with the product, it did take them three weeks to ship, and the outer packaging was a wreck.

I much prefer the quick ship aspect of Honeyville, although I would like lower pricing on grains, which is what I mainly order from them.

Fatboy – at 08:01

Grandma’s is a great company, verrrry nice people. Shipping can be slow at times compaired to the MRE Depots instant delivery but they have some great products (freeze dried broccoli anyone?). Check out thier website.

mj – at 08:10

I tried to find Grandmas. Found that it’s grandmascountry dot com with no kitchen in there. Looked good. May check further. Aspargus on sale.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 08:13

grandma’s country kitchen in utah I love their TVP list!

Edna Mode – at 09:06

LizB – at 18:30 But - when it comes to grains and many other items, Honeyville vs Walton, looks like Walton comes out way ahead even though Honeyville’s shipping is superficially less.

And forgot to mention this regarding shipping being superficially less. As a contrived “benefit,” it is superficial, because Honeyville builds the cost back into the product price. However, the further away from Honeyville you are, the less superficial the shipping difference is. For example, I wanted to order 200# of grains last week. I’m in Walton’s Zone 8. To ship that quantity by Honeyville was $4.49. To ship that quantity by Walton was $85. The cost, including s&h, to order the grains from Walton would have been $153.25. The cost, including s&h, from Honeyville, was $152.67 and they ship quickly, which gives me peace of mind.

If you really want to compare apples to apples, the prices I’ve sited above do not include the cost of mylar, O2 absorbers, and buckets. The stuff from Walton comes prepackaged, so you don’t have those costs (or the hassle of doing it yourself). Honeyville does not include those costs, so the real cost for Honeyville is understated. However, for my purposes, I prefer to do the packaging myself and see what’s going into my pails rather than run into any EOTW surprises when I can least afford them.

FPISC: You might want to start a new thread on this and retitle it to reflect the current thinking (not butter and cheese, in other words). You may get more takers (although, it’s not like you are hurting for takers!). Plus, this one’s getting really long.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 23:44

My stuff came today—I’m soooooo haaaaaaaapppppppyyyy!!!!

I didn’t get my second order placed Sunday — I suddenly got way behind on some things that have piled up but I should have a second order placed by Wednesday at the latest!

24 October 2006

mj – at 00:26

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 23:44 My stuff came today—I’m soooooo haaaaaaaapppppppyyyy!!!!

It’s a great day when we get our stuff in the mail. And Today is The Day. I’m happy for you (and me) and give thanks to Fully Prepped In SoCal for great work. This fills a hole in my preps that I wasn’t sure could be filled. It’s a great day in the neighborhood. Keep smiling, Rose. I’m Grinning ear to ear. Butter!!! Cheese!!! And maybe later in the week an order put in for…MRE’s? Lowers my PPF to be better prepped.

S. Arlington – at 06:49

Does anyone know why my PayPal payment of $150 to MREdepot went to “Department of Land Transfer Information”???

Thanks.

S Arlington – at 07:02

Please ignore/strike my last post. Sucessful order placed.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 09:58

That was weird S Arlington…glad you got it figured out! :-)

mj, I’m just the opposite — got my MRE’s and now want more cheese & butter — I’d bought both off ebay back when it was a ‘deal’ there ‘cause no one much was buying it.

I didn’t see a date mark on the MRE packages, maybe it’s inside the blue pouch, but I’m going to write it on the bag just in case for easy reference!

Gotta do as much house cleaning as I can between now and 1pm when the bug spray man comes, then I’m home free & can do internet orders!!!

deborah – at 10:37

I just got my order! Everything was packed nicely, and not a single dent to be found. I am saving the packing peanuts for my Christmas mailing. Bonus part of the order!

deborah – at 12:49

By the way, Honeyville Grain was mentioned as a possibility for a discount offer I believe? They still honor the discount code “AATW” (stands for Atkins All The Way) which gives a 10% discount. I thought I should pass this along for any who didn’t know about that promo offer.

Analyst4mkts – at 12:56

I posted the note below on the Preps you might forget thread. I thought some of you who are “topping off” preps might find the link interesting.

Portion Packages

Here is a link to where you can order just about any condiment under the sun in either pouches or small jars. I have not ordered from them yet as prices seem a bit high for me but you can get a great array of product/brands here.

The link is http://tinyurl.com/y743op

They do have wholesale pricing available on orders exceeding $250. If anyone orders from them, let us know what kind service do they provide.

MO Molly – at 14:02

I got my butter and MREs. No dents at all. Everything was perfect. I could find not dates on the individual MRE packages, but there was a date on the box - 04/20/06. On the MREDepot website they said the first inspection date was 04/09. What does that mean? How do you inspect an MRE?

UTmomat 14:12

Deborah: Thanks for the discount code for Honeyville!! Does anyone know of a discount code for Grandma’s Country Kitchen (grandmascountry.com)??

senegal1 – at 14:12

Can someone provide the phone for ordering for MRE depot. I can not seem to order off their website although I have no problem with other sites. thanks.

South Alabama – at 14:20

Hi All,

I’m a lurker in S Alabama. I’ve been reading all the posts for a while now and I wanted to order some butter but just couldn’t bring myself to spend $100 on butter….then came the discount. Well I broke down and ordered a case and it just arrived. No dents in my order either. I feel so good knowing I have this put away just in case. I’ve been canning all summer too. I have about 6 months supply for 2 but I have grown children with children and I know they’re not preparing for anything. So, I have to stretch my supplies from 2 people to 15. So I still have a long way to go. I’m going to order some cheese and more butter in a couple of weeks. Thanks everyone.

senegal1 – at 14:23

Good job South Alabama!

Oremus – at 15:04

UPS guy, just brought my shipment. Yay!

senegal1 – at 14:12 Steven Cyros, VP Sales buisness card was included with my invoice. Tel. 949–366–9484

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 15:17

UTmom – at 14:12 Why don’t you email them and ask if they have a discount cofe that you and some ‘friends’ could use….might help Fully Prepped negotiate an even better deal if some of us take advantage of a small discount first!

South Alabama – at 14:20 Welcome…..meet us over on the Alabama thread—glad you’re here!

Bird Guano – at 18:23

My butter and cheese arrived yesterday, along with a sample case of MRE’s

Also no dents. I’m happy with the MRE selection.

And I just finished placing another online order for a couple more cases of each, and a bunch of cases of MRE’s.

Too bad they don’t sell storage units too. LOL

LizBat 19:21

Ordered today. Butter with an “indefinite” shelf life solves my biggest problem - long term storage of fats. The grocery bottles of olive oil or other oils give just 18 mo to 2 years expiration date, I don’t cook much, so I was facing an expensive repurchase every two years. (The lard has no stated expiration date, but some are saying 3 years for rotation.)

Bird Guano – at 19:56

Lard depends on how it was refined, and how it’s packaged.

2 years is not unreasonable if it’s hydrogenated and packaged correctly.

senegal1 – at 21:52

Oremus: thanks much I will call. Not sure what the problem is and I only experience it at this site. I can order from other sites around the world. Hummmm….

AzNewBeat 23:21

recieved my butter and cheese today. how nice to see them sitting in my cupboard. going to order more next week, and maybe i’ll get some of those MRE’s to, just incase. Again thank you so much FPISC for setting this up.

25 October 2006

mojo – at 00:12

My mres came today! Good selection of meals.I was a bit worried as the pk said two cases of red feather but the correct items were in my box. Chipping away slowly at my prep holes!

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 10:27

Way to go mojo and AzNewBe — I ordered more butter last night — that’s 2 cases for me now in storage, which means I can SHARE!

I had gotten my case of MRE’s and that’s also what I’m going to have them mail to my sisters and brother — one case a week to one or the other of them, until they have a fair supply for a few days.

bird-dog – at 11:08

Thanks again, Fully Prepped… I should be getting my second order from MREDepots today and I can’t thank you enough!

I still do need to order grains and beans and I did have great success with two orders from Honeyville for fruits and vegetables but I’d rather buy organic g’s & b’s from Waltons that have been already packed for long term use in containers. Have you heard anything back from them re. a group discount? Should I wait a bit longer or just go ahead?

Thanks!

Kim – at 11:13

Well, my cheese arrived last night from MREdepot in PERFECT condition. As you may recall, I really didn’t want to tell DH about my cheese purchase as he doesn’t like the stuff and would see absolutely no use in it, and so had MREdepot time the shipping to arrive on a day when he’d be at work. DH was home when the UPS guy finally came dragging up at 6pm (grrr)… he saw the UPS guy coming up the walk but never inquired about what he was delivering (whew!). I’ve already got the cheese squirreled away in the pantry where he probably won’t see it. I’ll be ordering more cheese and butter as finances allow.

Oh yeah, I just HAD to open one of the cans to try out this cheese. It is GOOD!

Kim – at 11:14

Well, my cheese arrived last night from MREdepot in PERFECT condition. As you may recall, I really didn’t want to tell DH about my cheese purchase as he doesn’t like the stuff and would see absolutely no use in it, and so had MREdepot time the shipping to arrive on a day when he’d be at work. DH was home when the UPS guy finally came dragging up at 6pm (grrr)… he saw the UPS guy coming up the walk but never inquired about what he was delivering (whew!). I’ve already got the cheese squirreled away in the pantry where he probably won’t see it. I’ll be ordering more cheese and butter as finances allow.

Oh yeah, I just HAD to open one of the cans to try out this cheese. It is GOOD!

Kim – at 11:21

oooppps, sorry about the double post, not sure what happened!

deborah – at 11:54

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 10:27 I tried the cheese and butter from my order, they were both very good! The cheese made a delicious mac and cheese that I whipped up entirely from stored preps. I am going to order more of each, until I have about 4 cases or more of both for my pantry. Although I might get a can or two out every so often to use…that butter is really tasty! I am extremely pleased with the products, and even more pleased with the company (MREdepot).

The only problem I had with my order was a defective snap on the pouch for the multi-tool I ordered. I called the company expecting to leave a message and Steve answered. We chatted for awhile, he is such a nice man. ^_^ He is sending a replacement pouch as soon as he can get it out.

Has anyone tried one of the MREs? I would like to order a case or two so would appreciate some feedback from someone who has done a taste test.

Cinda – at 12:49

Deborah at 11:54

What recipe did you use for the Mac & Cheese all from preps? That would be a great one to have in my “TSHTF cookbook”

Cinda – at 12:50

Deborah at 11:54

What recipe did you use for the Mac & Cheese all from preps? That would be a great one to have in my “TSHTF cookbook”

deborah – at 13:20

I made a bechamel sauce from the canned butter and some flour. Added salt and a pinch of cayenne (you can use paprika if you like, or nothing at all if you like plain sauce), then powdered milk (Nido) mixed with water. Cooked until thickened and bubbly, then shredded canned cheese to taste. Pour over cooked noodles (I used rotini) and east as is, or bake for a tastier treat. I baked mine at 325 F after topping with Progresso bread crumbs mixed with melted butter and some italian herbs blend with a tiny bit of garlic powder. I cooked it until it was bubbly and the top was light golden.

You need to know a couple things if you are going to bake it rather than eat it unbaked. Firstly, undercook the pasta so it isn’t mushy after baking. You want it less done than al dente even, about halfway cooked is best. Second, you need a lot of sauce and you do not want it to be too thick. The sauce will finish cooking the pasta and get thicker as it bakes. Enjoy! ^_^

deborah – at 13:26

Almost forgot, you can add fresh tomato slices on top if you like, they are a tasty addition. You can add salsa and a bit of taco seasoning to the sauce for a spicy version. You can add meat if you want, or veggies. Try to think creatively. Something really good would be lump crabmeat mixed in along with a bit of onion, celery, and green or red peppers. Ground beef and a bit of catsup would make it more like a cheeseburger macaroni (hamburger rocks/canned or frozen ground beef works here), canned chicken and a small can of fire-roasted green chiles with a bit of cumin, there are a TON of variations if you just think about it.

Oremus – at 13:27

Kim – at 11:13

Just tell him it’s his Christmas present, and you can’t tell him more.

Kim – at 13:46

Oremus at 13:27, oh that’s a great idea for the next order! Guess that means I’ve gotta get him some kind of Christmas present just to cover my a**, huh? (just kidding!)

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 14:28

Isn’t this fun? It’s the most fun part of this whole experience of learning and preparing for BF or whatever.

tjclaw1 – at 14:57

Kim, you sound like me, sneaking stuff into the house…. I have most of my stuff delivered to my office so I can sneak it in after DH goes to bed. He’s nosey though and has found most of my stuff. Thought I’d be cute and hide paper goods in attic while DH was at a self-defense class last week. A couple days later, my 5yo told on me -

Oh, and all of my canning is my “little hobby.”

Kim – at 15:20

tjclaw1, most stuff I don’t have to hide from DH, he supports prepping in general, but since he (claims) he doesn’t like cheese I figured that him not knowing about it would just be a “what ya don’t know can’t hurt ya” kind of thing ;-) The whole cheese thing irritates me for a number of reasons, the most glaring of which is that the guy will gladly eat pizza and lasagna dripping with cheese, and when I get in a mood and sneak grated parmesan cheese into the spaghetti sauce he always comments how it tastes just WONDERFUL! He claims to not like all kinds of things, but when he doesn’t know what he’s eating will gladly wolf it down. This surely must be one of those “men are from Mars” things!

Oh yeah, my DH likes to give me those pitiful “you poor demented person” looks too when I indulge my “little hobbies”. But he gladly eats those canned, dehydrated and homegrown goods and enjoys looking at the flowers. He should be glad I’m not into high fashion, diamonds and flashy cars!

Another thing he claims he wouldn’t touch with a 10-foot pole is bananas. Think tonight I’ll make some banana bread and put a scoop of ice cream (which he loves… oh, but he hates milk!) on top. Whatcha wanna bet he asks for seconds????? ;-)

Eastern Shore Prepper – at 15:44

Just got my order in, 3 cases of cheese and 2 cases of butter— Shipping to MD is high though the discount made up for it. Will try to order some more next month— have to see how the finances go.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 16:10

Well, Kim, the truth comes out — I’m married to your husband’s brother!

My husband loves pizza and ketchup, but hates tomatoes. Loves Cheerios cereal but hates milk, loves noodles but hates cheese. whatcha gonna do??

Bird Guano – at 16:11

Give him dog food.

:-)

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 16:14

Bird Guano – at 16:11 you’re onto something for Kim AND me!

UTmomat 16:23

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 15:17 “Why don’t you email them and ask if they have a discount code that you and some ‘friends’ could use….might help Fully Prepped negotiate an even better deal if some of us take advantage of a small discount first!”

I’m-workin’-on’it- OK! I emailed Craig at grandmascountry.com and inquired about a discount for us. I told him that it had been very profitable for mredepot.com and we’d love a similar arrangement with them. We’ll see what happens!

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 16:32

Great!!! Now when FPISC gets in touch with them, maybe it’ll ring a bell with them & they’ll work with us on a BIGGER discount!

deborah – at 16:32

I’m-workin’-on-it :

I really like how you got your pantry organized. I was wondering just how many shelving units you have for your pantry and did you make any yourself?

Then another question I have for anyone who does home-canning:

I have two nice heavy-duty shelving units that I keep my things stored on http://tinyurl.com/yfzc2g that I got from SAMS Club. I can store the half gallons and quart size jars just fine, but the pints and half pints would be nice to stack. How do you stack these? I know you can’t put them on top of each other as that might ruin the seal. I want to be able to see what is on each row, so putting the jars into something doesn’t work either. Any ideas?

Kim – at 17:50

deborah, I made my own “shelf-on-a-shelf” for the smaller jars. Use a piece of plywood, heavy paneling, MDF, etc cut to the same size as a shelf. Measure how high above the shelf you need it to be, the cut some “legs” for your shelf from 2×4, 2×2, or whatever sturdy scrap wood you have lying around (this is the most important part, get the legs all the same length and cut evenly or your new shelf will wobble). Screw the shelf onto the “legs”, flip it over, and set it on the shelf. You just doubled your storage space!

Kim – at 17:52

BTW, if your shelf is very long it might be a good idea to stick an extra leg or two in the middle for added support.

Kim – at 18:01

I’m workin on it at 16:10…. OMG, you mean there’s MORE of these guys out there???? God help all us poor women who have to try to figure out something to feed these picky eaters! LOL

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 18:29

Deborah, I bought plastic shelving from Home Depot — there are 2 different kinds, one more expensive than the other, and it holds up better — there are shelves that are straight all along the bottom, then there’s some that have a “sculpted” front and have 2 drawers on one of the shelves — they’re the best because they don’t bend under the weight of heavy jars and things.

I like the plastic, because I can take the rubber mallet and whack ‘em apart if I need to shorten them and move them somewhere else, etc. I would LOVE to have FIFO (first in first out) metal shelving, but can’t get that right now and they only work for canned goods anyway.

If I were to do another set of shelves, I’d use the free icing buckets you can get from your grocer’s bakery section & use them as spacers because you can also fill ‘em up with supplies too. If someone came to ‘rob’ you of your supplies, chances are they wouldn’t think about the buckets having stuff in them, especially if you didn’t write on the outside what was inside, or you painted them black or something. I’d think someone rushing to grab what they can, probably wouldn’t think about the buckets being anything other than ‘structure’.

I would probably use bricks and pieces of wood to store canned goods since you can adjust the heights any way you want to, to accomodate the height of your canned goods without wasting space.

I think I’ve just learned something from you, if you can’t repack your canning jar boxes with canned goods and stack them on top of each other……I thought you could and had started to do that — I kept the cardboard and the empty box that held the lids and put them back on top of the filled pinto beans I’d canned this week and set them on top of some dry milk (not canned just filled and with an oxy abs in the jar). Can you not stack one box on top of the other if it’s canned goods?? Better that I find out now, rather than later! Especially when I get to the meats!!

Kim, my husband doesn’t like beans in his chili either….and I’m not crazy about chunks of onion or pepper in mine so I put the beans, onion and pepper in the blender and puree them — that way we get the taste & the nutrients without having to ‘see’ them! :-) I also hate crunching into ‘soft’ turkey dressing and hitting a piece of crunchy celery!! If food is crispy, then it’s fine for it to crunch, but if it’s supposed to be soft and something in it is crunchy I hate that, so I guess I have my quirks as well. Maybe someone teased me once and told me whatever I’d crunched was a roach or something, I dunno, I just know if I’m not expecting it, I don’t like it so I can’t be too hard on DH!! :-)

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 18:34

Oh, Deborah, I forgot to say thanks for the compliment on the pantry, and tell you that I have 3 large bookcases (the full height that came in the set I bought) and 3 that are 1/2 high (one full set split into 2 sets) and another full set where I used 1/2 in one place in the pantry and the other 1/2 for something else in the attic.

They were about $30 each set I think.

UTmomat 20:00

OK, guys! I need some help. I emailed Craig at Grandma’s Country Kitchen and he replied and said he could work out a discount for us, but needs to know how many people are in our group. I have no idea!

Also, I thought if I could give him the name of a contact person at mredepot.com perhaps he could call them and verify the “buying power” of this group. Thanks!!

deborah – at 20:00

I’m-workin’-on-it : I have been told by several different sources never to stack jars because the weight on the lid will cause the seal to break eventually.

My aunt cans a lot, and has a huge pantry in her basement (that reminds me of I’m-workin’-on-it’s in terms of the quantity stored)that has homemade shelving. Her shelves were set up so the jars fit nicely on each shelf, with a few inches of space above them before the next shelf starts. She has shelves for each size of jar, with room to spare in case she has a bumper crop to preserve.

I think she probably has close to a 5 year supply in her pantry, if you count the 3 freezers she has too.

I just couldn’t do that in my basement, due to the potential for flooding. Wood is out, so I have to go with metal and plastic. And the lower 2 shelves of my basement pantry have rubbermaid tubs with paper products (TP, paper towels, paper plates etc) so in the event the sump pump goes out my food stores will not be endangered.

My project this winter will be to make canvas or burlap type curtains to cover the shelves. This will keep dust off the jars and cans, and disguise the shelving somewhat. I think it will look more like a portable closet rather than a pantry, so when my husband has company in the man-room portion of the basement, his friends won’t feel like they are in a mini grocery store. He likes to have football gatherings down there.

Now if only the cans of butter were made so they stacked better, but I can’t have everything! Except more cans, of course! ^_^

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 20:40

UTmom – at 20:00 I’d just wait and let FPISC contact them — now that he knows that we’re interested, let him sweat a little. Either he’ll get on board or he won’t and it sounds like he’d throw out a tiny discount if any right now. We need a decent discount since there are so many competetive sources to buy from like Amazon to eBay to any number of prep sites — he would need to cough up the best discount he can. It might be best to put him further down the list and contact some of the other sites first and make him WANT to come on board with us.

If telling him that we did around $14K the first day didn’t impress him, he’s going to need more than just info from us and FPISC can give him that info in a concise format like she’s doing for everyone else she’s trying to reach.

You can click on the little tiny rainbow colored box below all the links over in the gold section of this page (or any fluwiki page) and find tons of traffic info, but pogge already said it would be impossible to give someone an idea of how many “members” there are here, since you can sign on with so many identities and your ISP can change depending on a number of factors.

I thought he might give you some sort of temporary coupon if you asked, sometimes if you write a company that takes online coupons before you buy, they’ll give you a code to use, but sometimes they won’t.

Hang loose for now and wait…maybe it’ll pay off. Meantime, why don’t you shop around for us for some other sources and do some price comparisons for us on things like the powdered sour cream or margarine. Keep in mind that MREdepot said they could sell it to us, AND said they’d be adding more items for us later as well….don’t know if it’ll be food stuff or other stuff…..thanks for trying to get some cooperation from him….sure makes MRE look all that better doesn’t it!!!

LauraBat 20:50

Deborah - that is so funny that you are thinking about making covers for your shelving. I am too! I saw some listed in a catalog somewhere and I thought that was a brilliant idea to disguise things a bit. But I am going to try and make my own since the shelves I have are not the same size in the catalog. All our preps (when I get around to moving them) will be in the unfinished partr of the basement, which, unfortunately, is where all the utilities are. Anyone who has to come in for repair work would see it. So I need to make the covers first, then re-organize everything.

For anyone needing to store all these cases of cheese and butter, BJ’s and Costco have good prices on the rest. grade metal shelving. BJ’s price is $69 for a 18″dX48″lX72″h shelf. I think Costco’s price was similar. It’s heavy as all get out, but little ol’ me assembled all by myself it was soooo easy. They come with wheels if you want to make it mobile. Bj’s also has a 24″ size.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 20:55

Hey, I wonder if those plastic coated wire cup stacker things would hold the cans of butter? I have 2 of them…they have a center handle to pick them up and 4 wire prongs that stick up and you stack your china coffee cups up and the prongs along with the center handle hold them in a nice stack so that you can carry several around at once. I think I still have some….I may have given them away, but if I didn’t, then they should hold at least 8 cans each I would think. That’s better than nothing……..’course a proper sized box would be just as good!

Edna Mode – at 21:26

FPISC, Have you decided which co. you are going to approach next for discount? Do you need help with this?

Dinkers – at 21:47

Hey Edna a al Mode, please keep me posted on how this is working out. Getting tired of canning butter in the pressure cooker! ;o)

silversage – at 21:47

deborah – at 20:00

I did the “closet” thing with my shelving units. I had found fabric at wally world for $1/yard and bought a bolt. I made a simple pocket and using left over conduit for poles, hung it with straps from the rafters. It looks great and keeps out light and dust and children!

senegal1 – at 22:16

Ok I just got off the phone with Steve Cyros at MRE Depot. First I have to say WHAT A NICE GUY! Super pleasant and very knowledgable. Here is our discussion:

1. There is a problem with the website that some people are having. They think it has to do with some of the security software that some people may have installed on their computers. He suggested making it so you could see the pop ups. This has not worked for me but maybe it will work for you. Otherwise do what I did — call them 949 366 9484.

2. They sell MREs on the GSA schedule to fire and municipal governments. He said that they will be delighted to take orders from local fire departments and other government agencies. Our discount is BETTER than the GSA schedule discount and your local fire department and other agencies can save a lot! For example one case on GSA is $65 a case with the flu wikie discount its $51 a case and it gets better as you order more because you also get the bulk case discount on top of the flu wikie discount. Its $15 to $18 dollars cheaper or around a 24 percent discount. He suggests talking with your local fire department, police, ect and have them call him. He can arrange taking a purchase order from the agency. He said a couple of small towns and fire departments had already ordered.

Everyone this is a great chance to do some pandemic awareness raising with you local town and get them something at the same time!

3. I asked about when to use MREs and what portion of the your preps they should be. He had some great suggestions: MREs are dollar per calorie expensive. You should consider using them to reduce menu fatigue. You know the 15th day of rice and beans. We discussed this could be very important especially for kids who under stress situations who can just decide not to eat. Second they are very good when you don`t immediately know the duration of the emergency and you don`t want to break into that 50 lb pail of wheat. Also the high calorie count (1250 per meal) allows you to eat one or two meals in an emergency situation and still be ok. Then there is the convenience factor and that ability to have a complete meal in the car, boat, etc. If you are prepping for example for three months, he suggests you might want to have 1 week to 3 weeks of MREs on hand. By the way he says the taste is outstanding!

4. Size of MREs: The case is 16 inches by 9 inches wide by 11 inches tall. Inside that are individual boxes containing the full meals. You can even take the pouches inside these boxes out and store them. There is no extra room in the box so you are moving around the same volume but it you can store it in a flexible manner.

5. On the canned meat: according to Steve this is the cadillac of the canned meat world. There are no fillers, no fat floating at the top, no skin, bone,etc and the broth is clear. The size of a 28 oz can is about the same height as a soda can and a little smaller than three soda cans together. Its about 2 lbs of meat and will easily make a meal for 5 with left overs. Taste is great too — he said they eat these all the time. He mentioned that two products the smaller can of beef with gravy was so so and the BBQ beef was too sweet for him.

6. Finally, according to Steve, they think we are going to hit the target amount sometime at the end of this week. He mentioned that some skeptics in the company did not think we would do that volume at all and he thought it might take us a couple of months. He mentioned again potentially keeping the discount on past the end of the year.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 23:18

I have an idea….I’m going to email Steve & see if we can do something fun….I’ll get back with you…snicker….

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 23:51

OK, I wrote a note to MREdepot’s Steven and suggested that we start a thread for him so that he could pop over here to the fluwikie when he has a chance every evening or two or three times a week and answer questions for us if we have any about his products. I figure that’s fair and if it helps him to control his time so that he can set aside a convenient time to sit down and visit with us, answer our questions, see what items we’d like to purchase that he could add to his inventory, etc., it might be beneficial to us all. I explained that we like to keep ‘advertising’ off the wiki but if we’re discussing things we’re buying, it’d be just like our discussing what we bought at Big Lots or Wally World, etc., and if he could answer questions like the good ones that senegal1 – at 22:16 had, that’d be GREAT!

Anyone see any problem with that? I asked him to think about it and get back with FPISC and we’d help him get a thread open if he (or any of his staff) thought he’d like to participate. Maybe he will.

26 October 2006

Anon7588 – at 05:33

Check out this site www.keystonemeats.com

Edna Mode – at 08:12

Dinkers – at 21:47

You are pressure canning butter? Recipe, please. I’ve not seen that one.

deborah – at 12:38

While several people can butter, it is not considered safe to do due to the risk of botulism. There is no safe, approved method for home-canned butter, cheese, or milk. If you choose to do this, you do it at your own risk.

While many people have had excellent results, most say it is nothing like fresh butter because the safest (not safe, just safest) method is to drive off all the moisture from the butter before canning it. What you have is more of a homemade ghee afterwards. For those that do not drive off all the moisture, the process involves a lot of shaking of the jars in order to distribute the moisture back evenly into the fats. There is no approved method for canning butter.

You might have good results doing this, and never have a problem. But the risk is very serious, and you need to ask yourself if saving a little money and doing this at home over buying a commercially canned product is worth your life, or the life of a family member. Because this is a thing that has the potential to kill you. Just an FYI before you try this.

mj – at 23:17

Anon7588 – at 05:33 Check out this site www.keystonemeats.com

I found keystone meats at Walmart in Van Wert OH. Found Turkey, Pork and Chicken.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 23:22

Is the salt content really fairly low in the keystone meats? I looked on the site and they claimed a low level….

mj – at 23:58

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 23:22

pork net wt 14.5 oz serving size 3 oz/ servings per container about 5 per serving: calories 100 calories from fat 30 total fat 3.5 g sat. fat 2.g trans fat 0g cholesterol 65mg sodium 180mg total carb <1g dietary fiber 0g sugars 0g protein 18g ingredients pork, salt

turkey 14.5 oz serving size 3 oz/ servings per container about 5 calories 110 calories from fat 20 total fat 2.5 g sat fat 1.5g trans fat 0g cholesterol 65mg sodium 180mg total carb 0g dietary fiber 0g sugars 0g protein 21 g ingredients; turkey salt

27 October 2006

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 08:11

Thanks — that’s not bad! I’ll look for some!

deborah – at 14:04

Long thread, wow! I think this one is going to go to part 3 shortly. Update from me on a multi tool I ordered from MREdepot that had a defective snap closure on the pocket…Steve said he found several other defective ones after our chat. Here is his email reply, I hope he doesn’t mind I am posting it. ^_^


Hi Deborah;

Thank you again for the time on the phone – I really appreciate hearing the fantastic feedback AND am grateful for the advice on both a professional and personal level!

My sincere apologies for the problem with the first 5-in-1 tool. I’m really glad you took the time to call me on this, as we found a total of 17 more that had the same problem, so you probably saved us hours of work and hundreds of dollars worth of shipping! That wound up being almost 1/3 of the ones we had in stock, so it is a problem we will address with the manufacture today, and we will also proactively contact other customers to insure they didn’t have the same problem.

We have shipped a replacement tool to you today, and I have inspected it personally to make sure everything was working fine. I hope you will not be offended that we sent the entire tool out to you, as again, you have saved us a tremendous amount of time and money by bringing this to our attention, and I am hopefully that you will be able to find a use for the other tool with the defective strap (second care, personal preps or friend/neighbor/relative).

You will receive the tracking number for this replacement by the end of the day directly from UPS, and it should be delivered to you by the middle of next week. Let me know if you have any trouble getting this one from UPS, and I look forward to a long future of working together with your group!

Warmest Regards,

-Steven

PS I did spend a little time on the website today looking at the great comments everyone has posted, as well as yours, and am tickled that everyone seems pleased with our service. That means a lot to everyone hear, and I am going to post some excerpts later today for all of our people to read as our pat on the back to them for a great job!


I hope any other company we end up dealing with as a group is as special as this one.

LizBat 15:18

“The butter, cheese and meats will probably last 10 to 15 years. The folks in New Zealand who can the butter say indefinitely, Kraft says 10 to 15 years on the cheese, and Werling and Sons say 8 to 10 years – but we have had an independent group test the packaging on all three products (just 3 weeks ago on the canned meats) and their expected shelf lives, and of course direct sunlight will shorten any shelf life – but kept cool you can plan on 10 years for sure according to the reports. The contents will most likely also be fine at the 15 year mark (i.e. not spoiled), but you may lose some of the nutritional value.”

Texasgirl, thanks for posting that info. I was surprised to see a one year date on the cheese, I was SURE I’d heard it would last a lot longer.

Ordered couple of days ago in the afternoon, I meant to mark the order “no hurry” (I hope they aren’t paying overtime wages to get our discount orders out the door so fast!) but they shipped same day; UPS email said it would arrive the 31st but it came today, more than a weekend early.

Everything well packed. Lots of peanuts to reuse for Xmas gift shipping :) (Or take to Mailboxes Etc or Pack N Ship, they always welcome donations of peanuts).

Now I guess I need to buy rechargeable batteries for the solar recharger! Their recharger does two batteries at a time, 2 Ds take 9 hours. I guess one needs several rechargers, or one of the expensive ones that does more batteries at a time, if one plans to use battery power for more than occasional short uses.

Feels real good to have 6 months of long term fats under the bed, no need to store and frequently rotate far more lard or olive oil than I can use up in normal life. One case of the butter = one month of fats for one person, at fats being 25% of a 2400 calorie diet. And I believe the “indefinite” life because there are no vitamins in butter to lose!

anonymous – at 15:59

Edna Mode — Yep. I found the recipe months ago here on the wiki, but in short, you slowly heat umpteen pounds of butter to foaming stage, turn down the heat, skim the foam, and fill hot, sterilzed pint jars (I recommend widemouth). Processing is a whopping one and a half hours at 260 (10 pounds) in a pressure canner. While cooling, up end the jars a couple times to mix the fats and liquids. Seems to work. Getting melted butter into the jars is a mess, but you won’t need lotion for your hands for a while. ;0)

Bird Guano – at 17:00

Living in earthquake country, I’m glad I bought butter canned in METAL and not in glass canning jars.

At least I know I can dig it out from the rubble, and still be able to use some of it.

LOL

I’m really happy with their service, although I do wish they offered Vegetarian MRE’s by the case for the FD.

KimTat 19:53

Got home tonight and my cheese, meat and mre’s were on the step. They came faster this time and I was pleased with the response the first time compared to other places I have ordered. These guys rock!

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 20:45

My meat came too today….I’m think I’m going to try some next week.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 20:47

Fully Prepped In SoCal hope you’re doing ok…..know you’re busy…..hope you’re feeling fine. Just wanted you to know you’re being thought of and hope you have a great weekend!

Nidaho – at 20:59

I have not seen the coupon on this page, do we need to call them directly?

KimTat 21:02

I ordered the meat before a few months back from the original company and made beef and noodles with the beef and a stoganof(sp)dish with the hambuger (not very unique but tastey) with only prep canned and dried items and both turned out really good and didn’t take long to cook.

KimTat 21:09

Nidaho – at 20:59

Go to this link www.mredepot.com and when your done ordering put in fluwikie in the Promo Code field

the first time i went to the wrong site and spent along time looking around.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 22:12

Yeah, what KimT said….the promo code is at the bottom of where you fill in your name and address if I remember correctly.

Wolf – at 22:15

Placed the (1st) meat & cheese order and the discount offset the better part of the shipping charges (east of the Mississippi). Thanks again FPISC! Hope to place at least one more order bfore end of year.

28 October 2006

Anon7588 – at 06:32

If anyone tries one of there MRE’s, let us know how it tastes:)

Edna Mode – at 09:37

anonymous – at 15:59

Thanks for the recipe!

orange-brown – at 11:22

I just ordered 2 cases of each, cheese and chicken. I already stocked up on butter, but might get some more later. Thanks again for working out the dicount.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 14:44

Anon7588 ¨C at 06:32 this is in honor of your question:

OK!!!!!

We just had MRE¡¯s for lunch! THEY ARE GREAT!! My ONLY 2 suggestions for convenience is that you put a pair of scissors or a knife with your stash of MRE¡¯s. If you have wet hands (raining) or a bad cut or a broken finger or arthritis, it¡¯s harder to open the inner packages ¡ª not impossible, especially if you use your teeth, but it would just be sooooo simple with scissors, and that keeps you from breaking your pop tart or crackers, etc. And 2, that you put napkins with your meals¡ª you might need to wipe your fingers or mouth or catch crumbs!!

There is enough in the kit to stretch the whole day if you¡¯re not just doing back-breaking work all day long - a breakfast tart, a couple of snack things and a main course.

If you¡¯re unsure about how these kits work, you get a plastic bag that you tear the top off of and you open a box, take out the main meal and slip it into the top of the plastic bag. Then you open a salt water pouch and pour the salted water into the plastic bag, fold the top over then tuck the bag, folded end first, into the box, close the box and let it sit for 12 minutes.

Meanwhile, I opened the other little packets ¡ª my kit came with raisins, crackers, peanut butter, a strawberry poptart type thing, pepper, a packet of red fruit powdered drink in a small packet but big enough to flavor a 20 oz glass of water nicely, and an oatmeal cookie. And a moist towelette. (No napkin)

My husband ate the Chicken Noodle kit and he everything I did except he got a spreadable cheese packet (so I gave him my peanut butter and I ate his cheese) and a shortbread cookie instead of oatmeal. 1180 calories total.

I had the Spaghetti with meat and sauce. It was heated thoroughly, tasted GREAT ¡ª was seasoned well so that it had some ¡®spice¡¯ to it ¡ª not bland kid¡¯s meal sauce. Large amount of food, covered my salad/dessert-sized china plate (smaller than a dinner plate). One of my cats licked my plate after I was done ¡ª he¡¯s finicky so that was a good sign too! 1310 calories total.

My husband¡¯s Chicken Noodle looked like a chicken pot pie with out the pie dough. He said it tasted GREAT! Was unsalted, but very flavorful and he had a pepper packet but didn¡¯t use it ¡ª said it wasn¡¯t needed. He¡¯s full now.

I¡¯m forcing my 3¨C1/2¡å wide (guessing) oatmeal cookie down and washing it down with the last of my red fruit drink, because I¡¯m already full!!!

This is definitely a package/kit that can be spread out over the course of a day or at least a half day.

These came from MREdepot using the word fluwikie as the promotional code! Buy with confidence ¡ª I¡¯m gettin¡¯ some more!

KimTat 15:20

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 14:44 Good to know that they are tastey! I bought two cases but havent wanted to try them yet. Took over some butter and cheese to a neighbor and told them about a group buy but they dont have internet access. Gave them the book from Will to read too. They have been my one and only success at convincing to prep.

senegal1 – at 16:22

Well I ordered the MREs, canned butter, and canned meat yesterday and feel better. Finally had to use another computer than the one I have at home. I still have no idea what the problem was. I am looking forward to getting these and I am going to talk to my local fire department very soon!

29 October 2006

KimTat 12:48

I tried one to the Chicken Tetrazzini, it was good came with crackers and cheese, fig bars, raisins, drink mix.

Anyone know of MRE’s that have chicken nuggets, big macs… ; )

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 13:23

OH! I forgot to mention that my husband’s MRE came with a fig bar! He said it was just as fresh and good as if I’d bought it at Winn Dixie that afternoon.

Bird Guano – at 20:23

bump

30 October 2006

Irene – at 16:44

I’m in central Canada. I just wanted to report that my order arrived today, just 7 days after I ordered.

My order consisted of 2 cases of cheese, 6 cans of butter and a package of oxygen absorbers for a total cost after discount of US$177.59 plus UPS shipping of US$61.49.

On delivery today, as I sort of expected, I had to pay the UPS guy a UPS customs brokerage fee which came to Cdn$ 42.95. He was able to accept cash, check or credit card.

I inspected all the cans and all were in excellent condition with no dents. :)

Bird Guano – at 18:10

Wow, you gals really take it in the shorts up north on fees and taxes.

Wolf – at 21:02

Got my shipping confirm today - this place kicks *ss! I waited a month for a similar order elsewhere and had to contact the company to get it moving. I will DEFINETELY order more from mredepot. Many, many thanks FPISC - a real quality outfit!

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 21:24

FPISC we’re missing you…..hope you’re just busy & not having to deal with fires either real or symbolic! We really apperciate all your work on this monumental project!

Wolf – at 21:46

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 21:24 I second that. Hope the only fires FPISC is dealing with is another deal with another supplier. You’re a gem, SoCal. All the best from the midwest. (and thanks again, I’m-workin’-on-it, for planting the seed - it germinated into a wonderful outcome for many, many people)

Fully Prepped In SoCalat 23:06

Hi All;

Phew, sorry for an extended absence! My company is being acquired, and after 2 months of due diligence, they ran into some last minute trouble auditing the customer accounts and needed someone to fly to Toronto for a “couple of days” to help with a forensic accounting. We’ll, guess who got volunteered?? You guessed it - only a couple of days turned into a week of 12 hour days - Sunday to Saturday… You have to love corporate America!! Not only was it freezing up there (at least for me), but the hotel only had dial up at $4/minute.

So, needless to say, I’m WAY behind on everything - including my updates and communication with mredepot, sorry. BTW – my hat is off to all of you who have to prep for a cold climate – hadn’t really thought about that until last week!!

OK, where do I begin… First, I have received several e-mails from mredepot over the last week and today (I think they thought I disappeared, as I am usually right on top of e-mail with them). The good news is that the updates from last week were all good. Here’s they are in a nutshell condensed from like 4 e-mails;

1) Sale is going well, still shipping same day, spoken to some great people. They say to pass on their thanks.

2) Honeyville grain called them to check on us, and they gave us a glowing review. Said they wouldn’t mind if I gave their number to anyone else for the same thing.

3) They have sold some large orders to both individuals and to some first responders (a FD, PD and a municipality - said all used the fluwikie discount, so he figures we got the word out and wanted to say thanks.

4) Promised me an advance notice for the group on any new products. He said they would be adding 25 to 30 new items for us over the next 30 days, and he would keep me posted so we could have first shot.

Then, the best news came in an e-mail today - they broke the $25,000 mark over the weekend – a little over 300 orders to date. I guess everyone is very happy with the progress over there. They are pushing to make the offer permanent, and told me he would have an answer in a day or too. Great job everyone - I appreciate all the support, as this should help us tremendously on the next one. I am going to see if I can get mredepot to write us a letter of recommendation or something on their letterhead, as every bit will help.

Now, on the other companies - I have not received any more e-mails back from anyone else. That makes it only Emergency Essentials who contacted us (and told us to subscribe to the e-mail list, as they don’t “do” programs like this) and Honeyville grain. Honeyville actually wanted to meet with me last week, but I obviously didn’t get back to them in time (sorry all). I just e-mailed and asked to meet Wednesday, Thursday or Friday of this week, whichever was more convenient for them. So I will keep us posted on that one, but it looks like I will get in there this week and hopefully get a good program put together there too. On Emergency Essentials, I am going to try and call tomorrow to see if I can scout of the name of the president or VP and try again at a different level to see if that will help.

On Grandma’s Country Kitchen, thanks UTmom for planting the seed there – if you want to give that one a try, you are definitely more then welcome to. Or, if you want me to touch base with your contact and hit him from two fronts, I can do that as well – just let me know.

The others, Providentliving, PleasantHillGrain, Alpine Aire and Nitro-Pak never responded to my request - I never even got a return e-mail. I’ll start trying to track down phone numbers for them to see if I can find someone in charge and try again. If anyone has any contacts there, let me know.

Thanks again for all the kind words – I really appreciate it! I’ll keep us posted this week, as I’ll be local this week (no more travel for a long time for me if I can help it!!).

mj – at 23:20

Fully Prepped In SoCal – at 23:06 Glad you’re home safe and sound and warm. Thanks for all you do. Would love Honeyville, but you might also try Lehman’s at 1–877–438–5346 www.lehmans.com They have many non electric items, berkeys, some food items, laundry items. Good service. Nice folks. A family orginization. Contacts are Galen Lehman, Pres; Glenda Lehman Ervin, VP of Marketing; Jay Lehman, Founder. They are in Kidron OH near Canton/Akron. They have 100% satisfaction guarantee. I’m not associated with them but have purchased from them and was very happy with the products and service.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 23:41

Thanks for the updates! I figured you had your hands full with something going on, but was hoping it was something more fun than forensic accounting/auditing. So within 3 weeks we broke the mark with MRE — that’s GREAT especially since we still have time to go till the end of the year - and maybe longer!

You might want to mention to Steven that Costco now sells MRE’s for the same price as MREdepot, just so he knows!

I hope you’ll contact Grandma’s Kitchen as well as UTMom — I’d suggested she contact them as a wakeup that we’re around just to see what they’d do, and if they hear from you both, and you provide them with the concrete numbers that you have, that’d be absolutely a hard-hitting approach.

Remember that Nitro-Pak gives you a $10 off your NEXT order after you spend $100; they send you a coupon of sorts inside your package — knowing that might help you know what to say to them.

You’ve done an amazing job getting this down to such a simple process for us and even though we have a Costco here in town, I’m STILL ordering from Steve for the MRE’s I want to ship to my family out of state — Gotta love Steven and his crew!

GET SOME REST FPISC you deserve it!

31 October 2006

deborah – at 21:23

I am trying to decide on what to get for my next order tomorrow. I am a bit torn trying to decide between cheese or butter. Also I want one of those solar battery rechargers, so that will definitely be in the order. It gets so hard to choose, I wish I had enough cash to just stock up all the stuff I wanted right away instead of making small orders every week!

tjclaw1 – at 21:56

Fully Prepped In SoCal, Thanks for arranging this discount for us. I ordered a case each of cheese and butter today.

01 November 2006

deborah – at 13:47

I ended up ordering another case of butter, and the solar battery recharger. While I like the cheese quite a bit, we can do without that for awhile longer while I work on increasing my fat stores. I guess I will be buying a case of butter every week for this month and then start on cheese in December.

With the long shelf life, I won’t have to worry about it going bad, and it can be kept solely as a prep item instead of being used. As long as I can still buy butter in the grocery store (umm, and also as long as there is no pandemic outbreak!) I can use that is our daily diet. Same goes for cheese.

Fully Prepped In SoCal - thank you again for what you have done for us and particularly my family. Without this arrangement, I certainly never would have been able to purchase these stores in the quantity I want to end up with. And I can’t thank MREdepot enough either, they are a great bunch of people.

Fully Prepped In SoCalat 19:51

Hi All;

Just a few quick updates to pass on;

1) I’m-workin’-on-it; I too just want to make sure that due credit is given… I get all the thanks and glory it seems, but it should be noted by all (as pointed out by Wolf – at 21:46, thanks for the reminder) that this was actually her idea originally, and it was her guidance/suggestions that got me pointed in the right direct. So thank you again for everything IWOT!!

Also, I just let Steven know about Costco selling MRE’s, and he was surprised by it. He says he hasn’t seen them at his Costco, but he would check again. He said to say thanks for the heads-up! Thanks also from me on the discount at Nitro-Pak - I will definately be sure to use that if we get a chance to negotiate with them.

2) I have an appointment booked with Honeyville for this coming Friday. Just to refresh everyone’s memory, we no know that they have a 10% discount already (thanks to deborah – at 12:49 10/29 for sharing that one!), a low flat rate shipping fee online, that they have spoken to mredepot about this and have probably gotten a glowing recommendation on us from Steven. So, I am going to go for the close Friday and see if we can put something together for us all by Monday. I’ll keep everyone posted. They are only an hour from my house, so not a bad drive.

3) Some REAL good news from mredepot; They have agreed to keep the discount up through all of 2007 since they are so pleased with the response on the program. He said it would probably be permanent, but that the legal counsel felt it was safer to initially extend it through all of next year.

4) Mredepot also said they are adding serveral items over the next couple of weeks, and wanted to give us some advance notice. They are going to get me a complete list shortly, but gave me a few item specifics. They’re adding a nitrogen packed line of heirloom vegetable and herb seeds for long term storage, many different sized water containers - from 5 gallon up to 55 gallon, 1 gallon, 5 gallon and 7 gallon pails of mylar/nitrogen packed grains, beans and flours and about 25 different emergency kit items for those who want to make their own emergency kits by adding their own food and water but want to pick up some of the hard to find items like “light, shelter, heat and tools/radios/flashights” according to Steven. He promised more specifics in the next week or two, and I will pass them on.

He also asked me to ask us for any specific requests on certain items. He says they would love the chance to use their purchasing power to try and pass on some savings on popular items to us as their thanks. I guess he has already gotten a few suggestions and is working on them (he mentioned water purifiers, mre entrees and snacks, vegitarian mres and more freeze dried items. I told him I would ask the group and put together a list for him to source for us - so let me know if anyone is interested in any particular items.

Thanks also MJ for the suggestion on lehmans - I will definately add them to my list!!

Wolf – at 20:07

Through 2007!!! That’s just wonderful FPISC! And an extended product line! You’re a dynamo! Bless your heart.

Agree with I’m-workin’-on-it: Get some well deserved rest! We’ve got lots to keep us stocking up.

mj – at 20:13

Fully Prepped In SoCal – at 19:51 Great update. I would like to have MREdepot carry freezedried hamburger, other freezedried, repair/replacement for Berkey’s, more choices on solar supplies, rechargable batteries, etc. I would like the freezedried because I’m east of the Mississippi, and freezedried is usually lighter to ship. They’ve been great, and I’m still smiling when I look at my butter. Thanks again.

MO Molly – at 20:24

I love everything about MREdepot except their shipping costs. They are fast, but I would like to see a slower, cheaper shipping option that one might chose if time were not of the essence.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 20:28

Be sure to tell Steven to pack those buckets in square boxes for UPS delivery — they charge a BUNCH more for shipping round buckets, than they do for square boxes for some reason — so he needs to figure in boxes into the shipping cost!

One thing they might consider are the preparation books that are out there — I know they can’t beat some of the big sellers on discount price, BUT if someone’s buying from them anyway, they might pick up a book as an add-on sale. The books about cooking with powdered eggs and other specific titles like that, or just books on how to cook with your food storage, or nuclear fallout preparation stuff, etc.

MASKS!! OMG, MASKS!!! I’m buying off ebay for better prices — ya’ll don’t outbid me now that I’ve said that….I’m just a little cat napping on ebay…..

Solar anything probably!

And finally, I’m humbled that you want to give me some credit, but I really and truly don’t deserve any — you had the ball rolling, I just suggested you make a separate thread so everyone else would see what was going on and I GUARANTEE you, you would have thought of that by the next morning if not later on that night! :-)

I’m just glad that everyone is getting a chance to get a good deal on some VERY essential purchases.

UTmomat 20:35

Fully Prepped, thanks for all the updates! Mredepot is fantastic. I’ve placed about 7 orders there (for friends & neighbors who are nervous about internet ordering) in the last two weeks and the service is impeccable. The husband of one friend tried the butter and said “WOW! Order more of that right away!”

Regarding Grandma’s Country Kitchen- The way I left things with Craig Fairclough (craig@grandmascountry.com) (801–748–0808) was that you would be contacting him. I gave him some basic info as well as Steve’s name and email address so he could see what kind of business we’ve given them. If Grandma’s doesn’t come through with a discount maybe we could add soy milk and sprouting seeds to the list of items we would like to see mredepot carry? Thanks for all you do!

bird-dog – at 22:24

Fully Prepped - that’s such great news! I’ll wait to order the grain and beans in pails from MRE; any chance they could have organic or at least non-GMO foods (wheat berries, adzuki beans, rice, oat groats, etc.) for their m/n-p’ed pails? If not, I’d probably order from them anyway after the thoughtful way they’ve shown us, especially toward you. Such good people.

And Heirloom Seeds!!! Fantastic! I’d also love some sprouting seeds. How about thermal/black-out window shades. They can be easilly made at home, but it’s just a thought. How about a gutter water diverter and the water drum with screen and spicot. Also another easy-to-make set-up but would be nice to have available for those who can’t… As I live way across the country(ME.), I’d probably not be able to pay the shipping price for a drum. Others might though. Thanks again!!!

Bird Guano – at 23:55

Non GMO grains, rice, and legumes in nitrogen packaging

Vegetarian MRE’s ( I need about 10–20 cases of these )

Heirloom seeds

LED and tactical Flashlights

Adventure Medical Kits or similar.

Lithium long-term storage AA, C and D size batteries

Portable solar chargers. ie: rollup chargers for laptops

Water treatment/purification systems (http://www.pwgazette.com/gravity.htm) for examples of field-expedient water purification systems they may be able to offer us at a discount. My fire department has two of these with resin pre-filters for filtering pool or pond water that may contain poisons and heavy metals, both are stored in a Pelican case on the fire trucks.

Also tell him to get on the California GSA list as an approved vendor. There is only one mre vendor on the state fire contract right now @ $69/case for MRE’s.

02 November 2006

AzNewBeat 03:04

suture kits would be awesome, I’m ordering a medic kit with one in it but stand alone suture kits would be great.

Really love the job everyones been doing Mre staff and Steven. And to you as well FPISC.

Anon7588 – at 05:59

As mj said….more freeze dried food would be great.

cactus – at 22:21
  I put in my first order today, and got email confirmation that it has been shipped. Awesome !

 I didn`t see anything new yet, will keep watching.

03 November 2006

anon – at 00:19

Mayday brand emergency ration bars. Best price around now seems to be from aaoobfoods.com, in case he is looking for a benchmark price.

FriscoParentat 01:44

I placed an order today for 3 cases of mre’s, 1 case of the milk substitute and 1 case of the powdered eggs. Nice discount! Thanks to FPISC!! I will sleep a little better tonight knowing its on the way. Next month maybe butter and cheese. Thanks again!!! God Bless!

FriscoParentat 01:46

Almost forgot to mention. My shipment total was $64 and change. I live Texas though. I think the discount covered the shipping costs. Imagine without the discount?? Thanks!

cabingirl – at 14:27

does anyone have telephone number for mredepot? I can’t find it anywhere on website. Thanks so much.

cactus – at 14:37
  I looked, actually find 2 different numbers.

Customer Service MREdepot.com (949) 218–4365

 and

   949–366–9484
deborah – at 15:00

This isn’t an 800 number, but here is the one right off the business card I got with my invoice.

949–366–9484

cabingirl – at 15:15

Thanks so much cactus & deborah. I must be going blind, but I still do not see number located anywhere on website. Cactus, did you pull these off their site?

tjclaw1 – at 16:01

emergency dental kits would be nice, as well as masks for children

cactus – at 16:13
 cabingirl, I got them from emails they sent me to confirm my order.
mojo – at 17:03

The grain mill everyone raves about, is it called country living? I hate the one I have. Thanks again!

Nimbus – at 18:34

mojo – at 17:03

I got the Family Grain Mill and I love it. There’s a good review of it at Pleasant Hill Grains.

http://www.pleasanthillgrain.com/family_grain_mills.asp

The model I bought (from EverythingKitchens) attaches to my Kitchen Aid mixer and also has a manual base that clamps on to the counter. I figure I’m covered for all contingencies! ;-)

http://tinyurl.com/yfzuks

Fully Prepped In SoCalat 19:09

Hi All;

Just a quick update - I just got home from meeting with Honeyville Grain, it went VERY well!! They took me on a tour of the plant, and it is absolutely enormous. They even have their own fleet of 18 wheelers, as most of their business is local bakeries, restaurants and food factories.

They said they were very familiar with the forum, and have spoken to a number of members in the past. They’re very open to putting something together for us, they just need to figure out the logistics. I pitched that we just keep it simple and offer a discount across the board, but they weren’t sure they could do that as there are so many products on the site. Some of their retail packed items have more margin so they can give us a better discount. and some of the bulk items there isn’t a lot of profit in them (and their flat rate shipping on the heavy items cut into the profit all ready).

Surprisingly, I didn’t have to sell them on the concept - I guess mredepot did that for us already. He claimed that we got a glowing review from Steven, and that Steven strongly urged them to put together a good package for us - so that was already resolved.

He asked for a few days to sit down and try and figure something out now that they know exactly what we want to do, then he may need a day or two to run it by corporate (Salt Lake City). He thought he may have some questions, so he’s going to stay in touch with me by phone and e-mail until we get something done - and of course I’ll keep everyone posted as soon as I hear anything.

I also passed on all the suggestions on new products to mredepot today - and he aksed me to keep them coming and he would go to work on these.

That’s all for now - I’ll let you know what else I hear, but it looks like at least Honeyville is in the bag shortly.

PS Phone number for mredepot is listed under the Policies page in the Damaged Merchandise paragraph - I knew I had seen it before, but I had to dig around for it as it is not easy to find. I guess they don’t want to advertise it, not sure why.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 21:37

Fully Prepped In SoCal – at 19:09 You’re AMAZING!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I don’t know what you do in “real” life, but whomever you work with is lucky to have you!

I’d looked for that phone number too & couldn’t find!

You GO girl!!

LauraBat 23:55

FPSC - getting a Honeyville discount would be awesome! I would definitely order more from them - I was very happy with them already but a lower price always helps. Thank you so much for doing all this work!

04 November 2006

Kim – at 07:44

MANY businesses (especially internet businesses) prefer to not advertise their phone number. As a former small business owner I came to rue the fact that I had a phone line. People call with questions (which even after the answer is fully explained to them they still don’t understand, and which may or may not have anything at all to do with your business), and cannot understand why you don’t have half a day to sit on the phone and chitchat with them. They’ll call and pick your brains about a particular product, and after you’ve spent 1/2 an hour answering their questions, they’ll say you’re not as cheap as so-and-so so they’ll buy from your competitor. They call and want you to donate to whatever their cause is, and get testy if you don’t. I got very few orders with a telephone call, mostly just questions which never resulted in a sale, and came to realize that there are a LOT of lonely people in the world who will divulge their life stories to anyone who’ll listen. In short, a well-publicized phone number can put you behind and waste a lot of time.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 11:19

Kim, that sounds horrible! That’s probably why email is sooooo popular!

Kim – at 14:05

I’m workin on it, email can be almost as bad! Especially when you’re an internet business, your email address is always out there… as prime pickins for email harvesters who then sell your email addy to spammers. It was NOTHING for me to get over 1,000 emails a day, 95% of which were from spammers. (And at that time, I didn’t have any kind of spam program for my ‘puter…. Wahhhhh!). Even with a good spam program, you still have to manually glance at all that crap to be sure you’re not deleting anything important, and if you can’t download your email every day, your mailbox fills up in short order, which makes everything bounce when the mailbox overflows. All spammers should be locked in a room with a computer for 5 years, where they must spend all their waking moments looking only at spam and deleting each one individually. Enough to drive ya nuts!

senegal1 – at 20:53

Wow. I just got my order from MRE Depot. I ordered 3 - 10 case lots of MREs — thats 360 meals which would be for intervals throughout the time period to avoid menu fatigue and also some to store at our offices. I also ordered a case of beef, chicken, butter, chesse and some misc items. My shipping cost from CA to VA was $10.00! I couldn`t believe it! It really pays to order more in one chunk if you can afford it.

Edna Mode – at 23:35

MO Molly – at 20:24 I love everything about MREdepot except their shipping costs. They are fast, but I would like to see a slower, cheaper shipping option that one might chose if time were not of the essence.

Mo Molly, I agree, and I contacted Steven about it. I asked him if he could figure out less expensive shipping if I were able to get a bulk order together that would ship to one address and we’d worry about distributing to participating members. I am working with like-minded friends/family members to get an order together. Steven is working on a way to implement it on the Web site so that others can pool orders in a similar fashion and save on shipping. For example, my three case initial order was going to cost nearly $100 to ship (Calif to NH, bah humbug). Steven quoted me ballpark shipping on an order of 30 cases (10 butter, 10 cheese, 10 MRE) costing about $350 to ship. Huge difference BUT we’d basically get it in the same amount of time.

FPISC, I’d suggest to Honeyville that they could set up a wiki-only page that includes all discount-eligible items and then give us a discount code to use at checkout. They do this all the time (the code part) with X% off milk or X% of cocoa. Alternately, they could set up a wiki discount code, give us a list of eligible items, and we can pick and choose from general online catalog as we see fit knowing what is discount-eligible and what is not. I know they have a mechanism in place to designate certain items as discount-eligible, so this would probably be the easiest for them. We could give the list here a permanent home in a logical spot on the wiki side.

Edna Mode – at 23:41

As for things I’d love MREdepot to carry…gamma seal lids.

06 November 2006

cabingirl – at 17:27

I guess I have a problem with a company that doesn’t display their phone number easily or a contact e-mail if there is a problem. I have a problem (ordered 2 cases two weeks ago, did not receive confirmation e-mail or number so I can’t check status) in that my credit card was charged 2 weeks ago, I’ve called twice and left voice mail, and still no reply. I have no way of knowing if I made a mistake on the order form or whether I’ve just fallen through the cracks. I’m a little frustrated….

anonymous – at 17:52

cabingirl – at 17:27

949–366–9484

cabingirl – at 17:59

Thanks anonymous, got it. I’ve called twice now and gotten Steve’s answering machine both times , but I have not received a response yet. still hopeful…..

FriscoParentat 18:01

Well I just talked to Steven and he answered the phone right away. My order should be here in two days. No problems with them at all. Nice service too. Thanks FPISC!

anonymous – at 19:03
Wolf – at 19:31

Received my order of meats and cheese - fast, too. No dings, no dents. I’ll gladly place another order with this company.

cabingirl – at 20:04

uummm, uummm good. Eatin’ crow tonight!! Got my cases! Don’t know exactly when, BECAUSE dh did pandemic reassortment while I was traveling, and I just found it buried! I called Steven again just now (he was there and answered!) to let him know I/WE goofed big-time. He seemed VERY nice and understanding (sounded a little tired though), although he did admit he hasn’t had time to check messages for a few days. Note to self: avoid ordering from multiple vendors the same day (just too confusing for my guys when all packages come in all at once and I’m not here to sort). My bonus room is starting to look like a freakin’ warehouse! Luckily I’ll be able to distribute some of this stuff when relatives arrive for the holidays. Think I’ll experiment with the butter over Thanksgiving….

Headliner1215 – at 20:12

Cabingirl; I’ve placed several orders with them, and the confirmation e-mail is always only 2 or 3 minutes behind, which tells me it is automated - so if you entered your e-mail address correctly, you should have gotten it. If you didn’t, check your spam folder, as you may be blocking their e-mails by mistake. I’ve also received three or four e-mails the same day I placed an order - confirmation, payment receipt, shipping notice and tracking number.

If you can find your confirmation number in your blocked e-mail/spam folder, you can check the status of your order through the website anytime - and get the tracking info. Just enter your confirmation number on the customer service page.

If you didn’t get any e-mails, you may have made a mistake entering your e-mail address. try e-mailing them - the business card I have says scyros@mrewholesalers.com. Hope that helps!

cabingirl – at 20:22

headliner1215, I think you’ve hit the nail on the head about the e-mail. It was very late when I did a bunch of ordering, so I must have gotten sloppy with my e-mail address. I get a little nervous when I have to travel a week or so at a time (mostly without internet access), so I tend to order heavily before I leave (just in case? worry wort that I am). Confidence renewed, won’t hesitate to make a future order.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 20:28

You guys might want to consider using RoboForm to fill out forms in the future. It’s a free download, unless you want the fancier version. I started out with the free, used it awhile, LOVED it, and now can’t live without it so I upgraded. I fill out a bunch of surveys & it always helps with that and I never get my email or my street address or phone or anything wrong & it stores your passwords so I don’t have to keep looking them up in my hardcopy!

07 November 2006

Headliner1215 – at 13:52

I’m Working On It; Outstanding find on RoboForm - just dowloaded the trial and tested it out. Wish I found that a few months ago. I’ve placed so many orders online for hard to find items that I have probably typed my info no less than 100 times. Thanks for the great advice!!

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 14:01

I love it too! Who knew there was such a thing? And I don’t even understand most of it so I don’t get the full benefit, but don’t need to understand it in order to use it for my main purpose which is quick fill-in — the one trick I had to learn was that up on my Roboform tool bar area, I’d see my name, and next to it I’d see the name of the website I was filling things out on and I could move my mouse over my name and get either the “fill in” or the “fill in and submit” form. If I’m doing a credit card I ONLY do the “fill in” click so that I can eyeball what I’m sending just as one final check, before the form gets sent.

silversage – at 18:13

Put in my Christmas order, everyone’s getting MREs, canned butter and cheese for the holidays!! All except for Grandma and Grandpa, they’re getting a new generator to replace the leaking, old, too small one!!

Thanks you Fully Prepped In SoCal. I got such a wonderful deal! Can’t wait to see what new items they’ll put up next.

cactus – at 18:16
  Got my cheese,butter, and eggs. But, they backordered the solar battery charger.
Closed and Continued - – at 21:28

Closed for length and continued here

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Gifts for the Holidays

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Gifts for the Holidays

04 November 2006

lohrewok – at 20:22

Please share your ideas for gifts. I am most interested in things for the kids. (especially those of the non-electronic variety)

I have a couple. for my 12yo daughter, already got her some beading kits. A kit for knitting and crochet. Yarn. Long underwear…I know that will go over big. But as far as the older boy goes, I am stumped. He is all about the computer and music. Does like to read. Maybe books? They both loved the Lemony Snickett series, and of course Harry Potter. Lord of the Rings as well. Anyway, what are some good ideas?

Justa thought – at 20:37

lehmans.com has old fashioned toys. music is made with more than electricity. A wind instrument, drums, etc. 3-D puzzles. build yourself kits, one of those pedal generators so he can do it himself.

Justa thought – at 20:38

pehaps the word “it” would be good between build and yourself. oops.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 23:49

:) that was funny too!

05 November 2006

Kathy in FL – at 22:01

Books on survival skills that are directed towards the younger population … and then some of their own survival tools like:

boys can go for a compact shaving kit … and girls can get their own version

teenagers with their own vehicles could benefit from having a roadside emergency kit for their trunk.

Another thing that my kids have found interesting when we go camping is astronomy, particularly on how to navigate by the stars. Comes in handy on night hikes.

Girls might enjoy a science experiment kit that helps them to make their own perfumes … using alcohol and natural elements like spices and flowers. I have a homemade set of directions for this if you want them. My kids have fun doing this.

Books on local flora and fauna … particular eating wild foods.

06 November 2006

HillBilly Bill – at 06:14

My son is 28 and married so my presents for them are a little different. I’m making them a document safe out of 4″ PVC drain pipe, putting two 60 hour Sterno candles in it and also sending a collapsible 5 gallon water container and some water purification tablets. Since they live in NOLA, they need all of this and more.

HillBilly Bill – at 06:17

I agree with Kathy in FL about science type kits for young girls. My granddaughter specifically asked for me to pick out another one this year after I got a couple for her last year. She really enjoyed the soda pop making kit and also the polymer chemistry kit that lets you make your own “goopy” plastics.

Green Mom – at 08:12

Both of my kids-12 and 15 are getting their own shakelights/crank radios, books and mag subcriptions ( we’ll have to deal with the contaiminated mail issue somehow)clay (for her) and woodworking/whitling knives for him. Plus some science stuff-aquarium/terriaum stuff for her, and robotics/engineering for him-yes the latter has some battery/electicity requirements, but we bought it way along time ago at a fabulous price and we might not lose power.

Theres a new Artimus Fowl book out that both my kids have been clamering to read (15 year old LOVES this series) Theyve allready gone through H.P. and LOTR, as well as Narnia. They both liked Aragon and sequel-I think Aragon is going to be a movie in the spring. Hope this helps.

silversage – at 09:41

I would think that kids would (eventually) appreciate solar chargers for their electronics, and maybe a hand crank radio. We like the 3D puzzles, I have the whole set for Lord of the Rings, the dark tower is the hardest. Not for young kids unless they’re very paitent!

lohrewok – at 20:22 We’re also looking for a new book series as we wait for the Aragon/Eldest trilogy to put out it’s last book. That’s a good series, kinda of Harry Potter meets Lord of the Rings.

I’m putting together baskets for my sisters. They’re each getting a copy of Dr. Woodsons latest book and I’m adding several cans of butter and cheese and small cans of dehydrated onions and peppers I got from Mountain Brooks Food. My MIL even said she would like some of the onions cause they are so easy to use! BILs are getting hand crank radios from Radio Shack. I liked mine so much I figure everyone needs one! We’re splurging on the grandparents cause they really really need a new generator so everyone’s chipping in for that.

I have to mail everything so I will send them early, that way they’ll have it if they need it.

silversage – at 09:54

Green Mom – at 08:12

December 15th is the opening for the Aragon movie. Seems like we’ve been waiting forever for it!!

Snowhound1 – at 10:01

Here is a reasonably priced solar charger and adapter for IPod. I’m thinking about picking one up for a Christmas present for my older “kids”.

http://tinyurl.com/y4j3ot

Snowhound1 – at 10:07

Also non-electric musical instruments..music is a big part of our family life. Additional music for those that do play piano, guitar, etc. I normally buy my oldest son, who plays guitar, a new book of “tabs” every Christmas, strings, picks, etc. My middle son plays “electronic” drums. I think I may actually break down and get him an “acoustic” set this Christmas, because without electricity he would not be able to play at all. Fortunately, we live in the country so the “noise” will only bother our family. :) Drum practice can test the nerves of even the most patient of Moms. :)

07 November 2006

silversage – at 21:11

Last Christmas I got DH and BIL a hands free head light. DH for grilling outside in the dark. BIL cause they go camping and I thought it would come in handy. DH just started using his again since it get dark so early now. It’s a great little tool if anyone needs a quick gift or stocking stuffer. QVC has them for 11.50. I’m not selling, it’s just that sometimes I shop at QVC, a lot!

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Where to Get Them

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Where to Get Them

06 September 2006

Ima-Prepper – at 03:59

Commonly used in making cheese, I am learning about culturing with powdered milk and need to know where I can find Junket Tablets. Anyone?

Ima-Prepper – at 04:01

Well drats the title was suposed to have the “Junket Tablets” in the title. Something didnt work right.

Ima-Prepper – at 04:04

Well if I don’t get my answer maybe this thread title will serve as a vehicle for those who are looking for random hard to find items and post questions and answers on locating them.

Chesapeake – at 06:25

http://tinyurl.com/z8xyx

lohrewok – at 07:13

Most supermarkets have them in the baking aisle. By the dream whip/ice cream mixes area.

mj – at 07:48

Thank you for asking, never knew you could make cheese with it. Always thought it was for ice cream. Loved the recipes on Chesapeakes tinyurl. Let us know how it goes with the powdered milk.

Ima-Prepper – at 15:00

Thanks guys!!I never knew it was so readily available.

Love Texas – at 20:53

I bought some 2 weeks ago at Walmart,

anonymous – at 21:42

Great idea for a thread. I’ve been looking for a place where I can get 1-gallon and 5-gallon mylar bags in quantities of 10 to 20 - I can only find them in boxes of one or two hundred, and that ain’t cheap! Help anyone? Thanks-

KimTat 22:02

Mylar Bags for pail storage (F015) 1/4 lb.1.80 each

http://www.internet-grocer.net/addlprds.htm

This was the price on my invoice F015/.25 Mylar Bags, each : 10 : 1.80 when I bought them.

anonymous – at 22:35

KimT-

Re my query about mylar bags, looks like a good site - thanks!

07 November 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 21:03

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Suggestion for News Posting Committee

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Suggestion for News Posting Committee

06 September 2006

cmo111 – at 17:00

Hi Just an idea - given that news is the source for updates could we set up a committee/sub-group of members from around globe to scan news at regular GMT time and post items of interest?

I am in New Zealand and we are pretty much first country to wake up so I could post morn here.

Just an idea but may get some order to news watching and posting.

Would need to work out time zones.

AnnieBat 18:51

Helloooo fellow kiwi :-)

I have been doing the news summary and then feel like I am the night watchman for news articles as the USA sleeps. At present that is about 6–9pm our time but this will change next month relative to the Wiki time when we go to daylight saving.

I have noticed that the majority of news is adequately ‘grabbed’ while the US contributors are active, that is why I concentrate my efforts in our evening. When we first see the sun, they are already active completing the previous day :-)

07 November 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 21:03

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / My Wife is Driving Me Crazy About My Preps

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: My Wife is Driving Me Crazy About My Preps

04 September 2006

JeffDinNHat 10:35

My wife keeps sending me mixed messages about my preps, currently I have enough canned goods and other items to keep us alive for a few weeks. My wife will suggest that we get more water and keep money in the house etc, then she will say that she is getting worried about us having these stored goods???????? I really dont know what to make of it. Any ideas or suggestions? I have been going to this faithfully everyday and your knowledge is unsurpassed!

JeffDinNHat 10:35

My wife keeps sending me mixed messages about my preps, currently I have enough canned goods and other items to keep us alive for a few weeks. My wife will suggest that we get more water and keep money in the house etc, then she will say that she is getting worried about us having these stored goods???????? I really dont know what to make of it. Any ideas or suggestions? I have been going to this faithfully everyday and your knowledge is unsurpassed!

ricewiki – at 10:49

is she concerned about safety and theft?

Eccles – at 10:50

Certainly, you wife’s feelings are important to understand, and to address to make sure she can be brought into the correct mindset with regard to preps.

It would be valuable to you to understand hwat about having all of those stored goods worries her. I think that would be a good starting point to resolve whatver issues she is having with the stocks.

Ruth – at 10:52

What is she worried about? Is her concern about people breaking down the door and stealing the preps? Is she concerned about the food spoiling? She’s probably glad you are doing this but the thought of what could happen is making her nervous. Ask her what her fears are about this situation.

JeffDinNHat 11:19

I think it is probably a combination of the food spoilage and the money that was spent on the preps, but I only buy the extra’s a little bit a time, and most often when they are on sale. As for the security, I am not too concerned about that right now. I think she doesnt want me to go overboard on the preps.

Kathy in FL – at 11:29

JeffDinNH – at 11:19

Well the truth is that whatever you buy now, you don’t have to buy later. <grin> Later will also mean that what ever you don’t buy now, you will be paying more for later.

So by purchasing extra food now you’ll always be ahead of the price/cost curve … especially if you are buying the items on sale.

As far as spoilage … most goods come with “use by” dates well out there by at least a couple of months. Just make sure you are buying things you would normally use anyway and then rotate them through your regular pantry items. This will also help you find out if you are buying enough or too much of any type of item.

JeffDinNHat 11:51

Thanks Kathy! I am buying stuff that we use, and we are using quite frequently. I do feel better about having extra food and supplies in the house. It gives me a sense of security.

Average Concerned Mom – at 11:59

Jeff — I agree with what Kathy in FL wrote. I think it makes little sense to stockpile foods that you ordinarily would never use. On the other hand, it makes a lot of sense to buy a months (or more) supply of foods you frequently use. You can buy in bulk, on sale, and so on. Very few foods are so perishable that they need to be purchased every week.

However, buying food this way does require that you cook (more) from scratch. Here’s one example — our family usually eats bean burritos once a week. We would buy the flour tortillas once a week, from the refrigerated sectino of the grocery store; they had anout a 2 week expiration date (if kept refrigerated).

Now I buy flour and oil, and just make them myself at home. The ingredients have a much longer shelf life. And, it is cheaper, too.

That’s just one small example; but the basic idea is, half of prepping is stocking up; the other half is, learning new skills to use what you are stocking! If you or she is getting a little anxious about spending too much money on preps, it might be a good idea to slow down on the buying and focus more in the using — and see if it doesn’t start saving you money in the long run. Good luck!

Wolf – at 12:02

JeffDinNH: I can relate. I live in a duplex shared with an adult son in the other apartment who has HAD IT with preps. I think a lot of it is due to not recognizing just how much is needed in the way of supplies for a total SIP. We’re so used to weekly shopping with quickstops in between that when you actually sit down and calculate how much stuff you’d really need, well, it’s a shocker. And it looks mountainous (and somewhat silly) to those who haven’t done those calcs yet. Much of what I’ve purchased has a very long shelf life. Early on I realised this was a long-haul proposition. So I intend to keep in storage the packaged goods with an expiration date of 10+ years. The other items will be rotated as advised previously. I tend to do more baking in winter, so for each bag of flour, I’ll replace. Also make more soups and stews, so beans and lentils also will be used and resupplied. Same for rice. I assume the NH stands for New Hampshire? I also live in the snowbelt - upper midwest - so the idea of not having to do an emergency shop during a blizzard (or even a slow snowplow day) is quite appealing. Not having a car makes it even more appealing. I’ve got an acquaintance who winters in Florida, and feels she’s heads-up on hurricane preparedness (maybe she is - no hurricane experience in these parts). I’ve discussed AF with her. She told me that she’s got 30 cans of Progresso soup to tide herself and her loved one over in the event of an emergency. Sounds like a lot of soup, until you divide it in half and start counting days. Even at one (small) meal per day for both of them, it’s about 2 weeks. But 30 cans of soup looks like a lot to a non-prepper. What I’m getting at is maybe you need to get your wife involve with really figuring this stuff out. Do the math for basic meals - without the opportunity to just run out and buy ingredients. It’s a real eye-opener. Makes those mountains look like molehills.

Average Concerned Mom – at 12:06

You know, that’s a good thought (Wolf) I forgot, I had sat down with my husband at one point. He was supportive in general of prepping for 6 weeks of food in the pantry, but was balking at the cost of it all.

I showed him that I generally spend about $150 per week on food and household supplies, so 6 weeks times that would be $900 EXTRA I would have to spend just on food and household supplies. Of course the hope is I could get things cheaper by buying in bulk, etc. but the truth is, there are also some initial start-up costs involved is you wish to lay in food for a long time period — you need to have a place to store it and proper storage containers, etc.

Still it is a useful thought exercise — to realize that initially as you are buying ahead, it WILL cost more, and to be prepared for that.

JeffDinNHat 12:29

Wolf-I do live in the Granite State, the southern part. Even in Southern NH it gets really cold and nasty in the winter. I do try to get my wife involved, she has made some suggestions, ex/getting more bottled water (she drinks a lot it), having cash ( a few hundred ) at the house just in case. I think it might be because she is an accountant and handles the money, and is always worried about the finances and money we spend, she wants to make sure that we arent being wasteful which we are not. It just gets hard sometimes to explain the preps to her. I work in the biotech field here in New England, and believe it or not, some people where I work (big bossess) are prepping, which really makes me think something is coming soon. I havent told my wife of this though. I have been blindsided and unprepared before and dont want to be in that situation again if I can help it. Where I live, its very heavily populated, about 30 miles north of Boston, MA so any type of disaster would bring people, and a whole bunch of problems my way, I just want to be ready.

Wolf – at 12:52

Average Concerned Mom @ 12:06: Indeed. So many unforseen expenses. Some of us haven’t camped since the kids grew up and so don’t have ‘cooking gear’ or lanterns etc. And fuel for if the power goes out for any length of time. In the past, as a homemaker scheduling weekly menus, I’d plan on one day per week of heavy-duty baking. Out of necessity, that’s what I plan now. I’d run out of charcoal otherwise (will bake in my weber using a stone) Might run out anyway, but there’s plenty of dead trees nearby and I’ll save my fruittree prunings this year. Also got a nifty thermos cooker. On the pricey-side, but man, is it great! Just bring the food to boiling and pop it in there and it simmers for hours - no fuel necessary. Just cooked up some soup and it was still steaming hot after 16 hrs. (Plan to use it to keep water hot for coffee/tea or macaroni also). 3 briquets (at most) and some kindling in a hobo stove beats the heck outta trying to keep a pot of soup simmering for 2–3 hours over propane or even charcoal. Figure I’ll cook breakfast at the same time I start dinner - over the same coals.

Wolf – at 12:55

JeffDin NH: “I work in the biotech field here in New England, and believe it or not, some people where I work (big bossess) are prepping, which really makes me think something is coming soon.” Now THAT’S the most interesting thing I’ve heard all day.

Anon in uk – at 13:05

wolf 12.o2 How i could not agree more with you on first starting out i got what i thought was a mountain of food all manner tou could ever imagine.spent an utter fortune and when i got on this site and learned how to sit and calculat i had hargly anything no rice no pasta no oats no flour and no idea how to survive for a month,Now i can confidently sit here and wait it out in the knowledge i will come out to see another year.my daughter grown up is thoughly fed up with it but she would be the first to say how hungry she was.Where is the dinner i am starving after 3 or so hours.i am made up with my preps it feels like i felt when i got an insurance policy against theft.no one wants their house robbed i do not but i was so relieved and i did not fear leaving the house it is the same thing for me.Insurance in case

Ruth – at 13:05

Comment on prepping…..most of what I bought I rotate and use anyway. Stuff I bought that I don’t normally use, I will donate to a food pantry about 4–6 months before it expires. Then I’ll rebuy it. Obviously, paper goods, TP, Kleenex, I just put away. Actually, the system works well now that I worked on it for a few months. I don’t worry about anyone breaking down my door now. I’ll worry about that when the time comes. JeffDinNH….Tell your wife if she wants to talk about it we will be glad to listen. This forum really helps get us calmer and on track.

BirdGuanoat 13:09

NOT accounting for your food security by putting some items into a storage program, you are getting a better rate of return on your food preparations, based on inflation, than most bank savings accounts.

http://www.ers.usda.gov/Briefing/CPIFoodAndExpenditures/outlook.htm

The CPI for beef and veal, rose 2.6 percent in 2005

The CPI for pork increased 2.0 percent in 2005

The CPI for other meats increased 2.4 percent in 2005, and 2006 prices are expected to increase 1.0 percent.

The CPI for poultry increased 2.0 percent in 2005 and a decrease of 0.0 to 1.0 percent is expected in 2005 as world demand for poultry has softened due to avian influenza-related issues in Asia and Europe.

The CPI for fish and seafood was up 3.0 percent in 2005, with an expected 2.5-to 3.5-percent increase in 2006.

The CPI for fresh fruits increased 3.7 percent in 2005 and is expected to increase 2.5 to 3.5 percent in 2006

The CPI for fresh vegetables increased 4.0 percent in 2005, and prices are expected to rise an additional 3.5 to 4.5 percent in 2006 due to continued strong demand for fresh vegetables.

The CPI for processed fruits and vegetables increased 3.3 percent in 2005 as production and canning costs increased substantially for producers. In 2006, processed fruit and vegetable prices are expected to increase 2.5 to 3.5 percent

However, in 2006, the CPI for sugar and sweets is expected to increase a 1.5 to 2.5 percent as increased sugar costs at earlier stages of production are passed along to the retail level.

…you get the drift

Given the $900 in extra prepping costs at only 3% savings over the CPI inflation rate, yields a $27 net savings.

Cost of having a food storage program when there is NOTHING on the shelves because JIT delivery has broken down ?

PRICELESS

Wolf – at 13:11

Anon in uk – at 13:05: I tease my son that he’s like Thumper in Bambi - “I’m hungry, Mother, I really am”. Oh, yeah. A mountain is necessary.

Wolf – at 13:13

BirdGuano – at 13:09: My son is an accounting major in college. These numbers may become invaluable (as well as to JeffDinNH)!

tjclaw1 – at 13:19

I get major grief from my husband. He doesn’t understand why we need to buy toilet paper, toothpaste, etc., when we have some already. He was raised hand-to-mouth, and never had food at the end of the week. Since I’ve paid for all the preps, I told him he is not allowed to touch them or to comment on them. If we need them, he’ll be happy we have them.

I’ve hidden preps over the whole house, and he’s managed to find all of it. Makes me furious when I see that he’s pulled something out of the preps.

Wolf – at 13:25

My kid hits me up for stuff all the time. Like I’m now the mini-mart with no cash needed. Infuriating! >sigh<

Ange D – at 13:26

JeffDinNH: mmmmmmmmmmmm …men who want to keep harmony in the home and on issues AND help prep? Your wife has a jewel on her hands that is much more valuable than any bauble you can bring home from the store! ;-)

One thing that might help is what I call the reality check pages. I have a section in my emergency notebook for things that keep me up to date and encouraged to prep. First, I wrote pages and pages of things we would need if we needed to SIP a month, two months, 6 months, a year, 18 months. Then I made inventory pages to keep track of everything. So, then I could discuss goals with my husband. (You gotta love a man who brings home 14 bottles of pepto bismol because he loves you and is showing he is helping to stock up) Every now and then, I copy something that reminds me of what the reality of a pandemic could be like. Sometimes, it’s a news article. Sometimes, it’s someone’s insight and opinion here on fluwikie.

One of the things that I discovered by having a “reality and planning section” is that I needed to be sharing all this information with my husband. I help keep him up to date and make sure important issues are on his grid for reading. And, we discuss some of the issues. Like, when Monotreme was bringing up information in the “Worst Case Scenarios”, my husband read some of the issues. (He thinks Monotreme has an optimistic (lol!) viewpoint about some of the issues). Anyway, my point is if you are cruising the internet and especially fluwikie and absorbing information and planning and smoothing out your dangling participles on bird flu and your wife is not, then you are unequally yoked and when bird flu hits, your wife might really freak out. (Maybe)

When we have a hurricane here, everyone knows that we have an emergency preparedness box full of lanterns, batteries, radios, battery-operated tv, aluminum foil (to hang a square of foil on the tv antenna to improve reception lol) and other essentials. It is regularly replenished and kept up to date. A few years ago when we had a terror of a storm go through here, we had a friend staying with us. He clung like a dying man to his battery operated lantern while we all played cards and drank coffee and tea. What we took for granted and were assured we would probably get through it, he had no experience in dealing with a storm that was uprooting trees and crashing them around the house. We didn’t think to tell him all the details. Now, he proudly admits how prepared he is and has educated himself about possible catastrophes. I wonder if your wife knew about the enormity ofproblems that might be faced in a pandemic, if she might not be working more in unison with you.

Good luck to you!

BirdGuanoat 13:28

Wolf – at 13:13

BirdGuano – at 13:09: My son is an accounting major in college. These numbers may become invaluable (as well as to JeffDinNH)!


I’ve had the same conversations with a lot of engineer types that I work with, so I finally did the research to make the case using numbers.

Also ask them if they buy car insurance.

If so why ? What are the odds of them needing it ?

Same with Homeowners/renters insurance.

Then why not food insurance ?

Unlike car insurance you can; eat it, it hedges against inflation, and it ALSO acts as an insurance policy against supply interruption or natural disaster.

Make THEM make the case for NOT having a food storage program :-)

It’s not logical NOT to have one.

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 13:32

JeffDinNH - On brown rice alone we have saved a ton of money. Honestly, I can’t believe I’ve wasted so much buying it in regular (3?) pound bags before this. And now that our preps are solid, I only need to buy someting on sale, and I can be choosy and wait for a good sale! If your wife’s an acct., she’ll get the money saving aspect pretty quickly with foods purchased in bulk. Are you afraid of scaring her if you tell her some of the biotech. bosses are prepping? That’s powerful information, and reading it surely had an effect on me! I’m glad to know there’s another prepper in my neighborhood! Welcome!

Edna Mode – at 13:39

JeffDinNH – at 12:29 It just gets hard sometimes to explain the preps to her. I work in the biotech field here in New England, and believe it or not, some people where I work (big bossess) are prepping, which really makes me think something is coming soon. I havent told my wife of this though.

Tell her! Share with her! And, as a fellow Granite Stater, take her into Wal-Mart and Shaw’s with you. At Shaw’s you will find “weird” items that just started being put out: huge bins of crank flashlights and canned meats that have never been given such floorspace. I was in three separate Wal-Marts this a.m. and in each one I heard announcements to this effect (only slightly paraphrased):

“Flu season is right around the corner. When I get the flu, I usually rush right to my doctor. But this year, I’m taking it easy on myself. My medicine cabinet is stocked with all the flu remedies. Be prepared. Stock up, and take it easy on yourself.”

I thought that was really interesting.

As Kathy in FL already aptly pointed out, buying in bulk and stocking up on sale items saves $$ in the long run. That should appeal to your DW.

Edna Mode – at 13:41

Wolf – at 13:25 My kid hits me up for stuff all the time. Like I’m now the mini-mart with no cash needed.

Funny, Wolf! My college-age step-daughter almost drooled when she went through our prep area. “This is a college student’s dream come true,” she exclaimed. I gave her a bunch of the items that were nearing expiration knowing they would get gobbled up quickly. Kind of like a donation to our own personal food bank. ;)

JeffDinNHat 14:32

Thanks Guys! I appreciate your good advice and will take it to heart! Its good to know that I am not the only one.

preppiechick – at 14:55

Jeff-

I grew up in the connecticut river valley and i have to say, that is where my survival instinct came from! I think because of the weather, the residual effects of the depression, and general yankee thriftiness, it was ingrained at a young age. (i’m 40, so not that long ago-though my kids would argue that!. I bet if your wife talks to some old timers (and I’m assuming your not native, or else so. nh is way more urban now) she would see the logic. I am now in a large metropolitan area of the midwest, in a nice cozy suburb, and hardly anyone has more than a few days groceries -it’s too easy to run to the store. But I hate going out shopping in weather, and so I have always had a pantry. I have been very glad to have purchased a lot of what I have now, as I see the prices on these same items up 10–30% in some cases! I also only buy on sale, and even better with coupons, so it really helps the budget not to have to pay full price because I need something. We are alos self employed, so it really helps the ups and downs of that kind of income!

Ricewiki-

Nice to see you back! Are you in my neck of the woods now? Were you able to move your preps? Thanks again for those reports, sent long ago. I have new email- it’s in my short profile!

Feather Pillow – at 15:08

Jeff…..did you ever just “asK” her what she means and what her concerns are? Sounds like you might be trying to fix a problem without knowing for sure what it is or if there even is one. Just ask. (or maybe you did and she didn’t say)

Safety Lady – at 15:43

Preps are a good hedge against inflation. The bags of flour I purchased three months ago for 1.59 for a five pound bag now costs 2.65 for the same things. Keep track of prices and soon you see how much they go up every week (day). She will thank you.

Safety Lady – at 15:50

Ange D, my kids thought I was a grocery store. They would come in and take a 3 pound can of coffee out of my stash and leave. Just wanted me for my storage items. Ha ha. Now middle son (who is a great chef professionally) has three boxes of cereal, three of pop tarts and coffee on his shelves. He knows better also.

Prepping Gal – at 16:12

JeffDinNH – at 10:35

I have a different perspective on your wife’s reactions. She copes I think like myself and perhaps a lot of women. If you were to change the word “worried” to “practical” it takes on different image. At times she’s comfortable with prepping; therefore she’s practical. But then she according to you worries about the “preps”. But in reality she’s trying to be practical about “security” which I think is the next practical level of concern. She’s likely a realist and she knows that what you have could be taken or lost despite all your efforts. What I think is being said is I don’t feel secure;what do we need to do next??

I think this way of thinking is good because in all likelihood she is a visionary and can anticipate problems down the road (like most women). By openly discussing this vision with your input she can strategize to the next level of comfort. I see her as foreward thinking ahead of most. You are lucky to have her.

INFOMASS – at 19:32

Water is one of the bulkiest and least easy to store preps, although several 5 gallon containers or even a new trash barrel full of water is a good idea. But buying bleach or even pool shock (calcium hypochlorite with no additives) will allow “bad” water to be purified. (Ten drops bleach per gallon; more if still cloudy; pool shock makes bleach - 1 heaping teaspoon for two gallons of bleach) Also, in terms of grain storage a vacuum sealer will extend flour or rice storage life to 2–3 years and pasta will last 2–3 in the box if kept in a cool, dry place. Since 20–25 lb. bags of grains are cheap ($10 or so at Costco) if the v. sealer investment can be made, the spoilage problem is much less. The same would apply to dehyrators for fruit. Storage space can be an issue. Get an old old van and put it up on blocks;.) It is cheaper than rented storage!

prepperbabe – at 21:14

JeffDinNH- I went through the same thing with my DH, at first. One thing that helped us get on the same page (translation: my page) about prepping was making a data base. I used Excel and listed item, expiration date, quantity, and storage location. That way, I can sort by location, item or expiration date. It ensures nothing gets wasted because I forgot where it was or when it expired.

tjclaw1- Am feelin’ your pain about prep raiding. Daughter had a sleep over this weekend. Found wrappers from the treat preps hidden under couch in the morning. I can’t believe they weren’t sick. Little heathens.

05 September 2006

Oremus – at 00:24

To calm the wife buy cases of chocolate, to calm the husband buy cases of booze, and to calm the children…… heck the booze and chocolate should work. 8^)

husbandintow – at 00:44

my wife is mostly onboard - have 3 months or so of food supplies - she does the foods - have many months of other hard supplies - i supply - maybe years worth actually.

While i am certain it is coming soon, she does not want to think about it.

There are so many things that i need to discuss about how we would live in a SIP condition… but she doesnt want to… so i plan by myself… prepping when i can… hiding supplies around the house… I feel im in pretty good shape - but when it comes time to shut the door, i feel only i am in position to call the shots and make the rules. I have been the one to lie awake at night thinking the unimaginable. I have been the one to buy the heaters, fuel, masks, gloves, bleach, batteries on and on. But i just know that when the time comes, SHE will want to take charge. There lies the rub.

I think she is slowly getting it or it is becoming less a problem… i see more food showing up, but then i see our toilet paper decrease to an unacceptable level. In the store, she will put one box of tissues in the cart… i throw another 1 or 2 in… she looks at me and says nothing but speaks volumes.

I will not stop my prpepping. If it were my decision alone, i would prep for 2 years SIP and get off the electrical grid and all other deliverable fuels. I would also If on my own, move to a mountain top and get the heck out of here. Too many people for my taste in a pandemic. but here i am. in my home. wife sort of on board.. better than not on board at all i guess.

Anon_451 – at 01:14

husbandintow – at 00:44 I know the feeling well. My DW thought I was a total nut case for a while. Started bring home some of the stuff I was working on at work and just left them for her to see. She understands it more in her head but not in her heart. I know that I can count on her to ration the food and keep the others in line but she will not like it at all. Maybe if you printed out the maps of Indo and the case chart and just leave it where you know she will see it. One of those “This is real and is happening we need to be ready” type of things.

econ101 – at 01:17

Test

Swann – at 02:45

http://tinyurl.com/eb36p

This is the link to a pamphlet produced by the state of Indiana which is an excellent guide for anyone who needs to understand more about what we are preparing for (originally posted by DennisC and btw in MT, thanks!). I emailed it to my friend who has been ignoring my pleas to start prepping for more than a year and surprisingly, it worked! She called today to tell me she has restocked her pantry with more than $400.00 worth of prep essentials. I don’t know what she read in the guide that clicked for her, but I am surely relieved. I hope it might be of use to some of you.

Carrey in VA – at 11:07

Oremus – at 00:24

“To calm the wife buy cases of chocolate, to calm the husband buy cases of booze, and to calm the children…… heck the booze and chocolate should work. 8^) “

OMG LMFAO LOL

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 11:22

I loved that comment too :-)

Max – at 11:37

Yes, gender-role stereotyping is so hilarious. And original, too!

Calico – at 11:50

JeffDinNH at 12:29 - I think it might be because she is an accountant and handles the money, and is always worried about the finances and money we spend, she wants to make sure that we arent being wasteful which we are not. It just gets hard sometimes to explain the preps to her.

Put it to her in her language.

FIFO.

Next problem? LOL

niah – at 11:57

Oremus – at 00:24

LMAO! :-)

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 12:12

Max – at 11:37 “yes, gender-role stereotyping is so hilarious. And original, too! “

yep, ‘specially when you include the kids — sort of a “two for one”

LauraBat 22:15

One way to help convince a spouse - do a “prep weekend.” No power, no water. Only prep foods. No stove, etc. Keep track of everything you use - multiple that times however many weeks you think you’ll need.

Going a few days without power convinced my dh not only do we need a generator (well water), but also how much we rely on eating out when we either don’t have power, or just don’t feel like cooking, etc. if you eat EVERY MEAl at home for six weeks, it’s a lot of food. Things finally started to click, luckily giving me enough time to spend more money!

Carrey in VA – at 22:24

Max – at 11:37 “yes, gender-role stereotyping is so hilarious. And original, too! “

Oh it was funny and you know it LOL

Carrey in VA – at 22:24

Max – at 11:37 “yes, gender-role stereotyping is so hilarious. And original, too! “

Oh it was funny and you know it LOL

06 September 2006

Call of the Wild – at 00:58

On a day of no paid work, my wife went through our disorganised food supplies so we can estimate where we might be short. I can foresee some major prep help coming now. I just asked her if she’d mind doing it, as we raid the supplies when we need to.

History Lover – at 13:37

JeffDinNH - I only became really aware of the Bird Flu last April or May when watching a show on GMA. I started preparing slowly without telling even my family. Gradually I let family members know what I was doing putting it in the context of current disasters such as Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita, not just concentrating on Bird Flu. My oldest son thought it was great and called my prep closet “The Apocalypse Room.” My husband, much like your wife, was tolerant but not totally committed. The way I finally convinced him that we either do this all the way (and you have to consider the worst case scenario) or not at all was by sending him news articles that I find on the Flu Wiki news threads. I usually find the articles that describe how a community is preparing for a possible pandemic or the rising number of deaths in a country. After a few of these, he began telling me, “I’m going to give you $50 a month to help with your preps.” Then he began saying, “I’m going to give you $100 a month to help with your preps.” Now he’s building more storage shelves for the preps. Good luck. I know you’ll come up with something.

07 November 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 21:02

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Page last modified on November 07, 2006, at 09:02 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Lets Talk CFR Part II

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Lets Talk CFR Part II

01 September 2006

Bronco Bill – at 00:07

Continued from here


Tom DVM – at 23:54

Bronco Bill Thanks.

anon22. I have looked at all three references that you cited at 19:23 but they are only abstracts…so I can only give very general impressions and not an indepth analysis of their data.

1) Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic.

2) Strategies fo mitigating an influenza pandemic.

With all due respect…he’s joking…right?

Did these people not study the history of H1N1 beforehand or are they talking about a 1968 type pandemic only. If they would like to model the outlier on the mild side (1968) and ignore the outlier on the virulent side(1918)…more power to them but the study is then rendered pretty much useless.

They have been trying to contain this monster (H5N1) for ten years…how has it been going so far?

3)Influenza in Seattle families 1975–59.

Last time I checked, I do not believe there was a pandemic in the years 1975–79.

No matter which strain or subtype of flu during those years, there was inherent immunity to all of them…so attack rates etc. are prejudiced by the background immunity…some individuals would not get the disease because they were immune or partially immune to that strain…

…Now fast forward to 2006. There are no asymptomatic infections, there is a very high CFR which is an indication of the uniqueness of the virus…in respect to immunity…

…The bottom line is the 1975 study has no relation to a pandemic strain (by definition…no inherent immunity) and shouldn’t be used by regulatory agencies and governments to cloud or downplay the issue.

If H5N1 becomes pandemic capable…which now seems only a matter of time…the best we can expect is between 5–15% avoidance rate. Those who avoid it during a time period will be infected by the virus at some point later…leaving at best probably 5% unaffected.


Tom DVM – at 23:56 \\ Sorry, 1) should have been Strategies for containing an influenza pandemic.


01 September 2006

Monotreme – at 00:05

Tom DVM – at 23:02
I would be afraid that the Monotreme, a little furry critter is the one spreading the virus in Indonesia rather than humans…and that furry critter is a mammal like us.

Hey Tom DVM, don’t blame us Monotremes!

No reports of H5N1 in Monotremes yet ;-)

anon_22 – at 01:18

Tom,

With all due respect…he’s joking…right?

Well, he is a modeller, so he’s got a right to play around with his models. A lot worse papers have been published than his.

But the ethics behind what he tells policymakers is a different story. The limitations of modelling are all in his papers and especially in the even thicker supplementary material (I believe 17 pages for one of the papers, took me a long time to read them), but he does not translate those limitations into English.

I’ve listened to the guy and he manages to make everything very believable. Therein lies the problem. It’s a very esoteric science, and not many people are capable of seriously rebutting his ideas.

The biggest problem with Ferguson is not Ferguson himself, but the fact that his containment modelling is being waved around in substitution for real pandemic mitigation policies, especially in the UK.

As you read from my ‘Social Distancing’ Thread, I’m not against strategies such as reducing social contact, but I’m against the word ‘containment’ because that makes people believe erroneously that it is possible to contain a flu virus.

Having said that, his modelling of how a pandemic virus might break out and then spread is extremely useful to read and learn, not necessarily to believe in his numbers, but it’s highly educational to think through the many considerations.

They have been trying to contain this monster (H5N1) for ten years…how has it been going so far?

To be fair, that is not what they are talking about. The prior efforts have had to do with avian outbreaks, now we are talking about what can be done at the beginning of a human pandemic. Even though I don’t believe his model works, I do think one mustn’t be too skeptical and should stay willing to explore everything that is presented. So we shouldn’t judge mitigation measures for a human pandemic in the West based on the success or failure of controlling avian outbreaks in Asia.

I quoted the paper on “Influenza in Seattle families 1975–59.” to answer your question of where they get the 50% symptomatic idea. I have read other references which I don’t remember now where they do similar surveys of family groups or closed groups in institutions and find that the number of seropositive cases is about twice the number of symptomatic cases in most instances. So there is some basis for using 50%.

Of course, none of this means that H5N1 will behave in the same way. But prior data, however inaccurate, still gives us some idea of at least the range of possibilities and likelihoods.

As I said, one mustn’t be too skeptical. Everything involves hours of trawling through data. :-) You never know where real solutions might come from.

Tom DVM – at 11:03

This was my response to Monotreme last night. I thought I would add it here…thanks.

Monotreme. I am only following tradition…

…In the olden days, they would name the disease or syndrome after the discoverer…that makes the furry mammal a Monotreme.

Tom DVM – at 11:20

annon 22.

I thought I would add a few additional comments to the discussion.

With respect to Dr. Ferguson…his two papers appear to be very similar…’containing an influenza pandemic’ and ‘mitigating an influenza pandemic’ which indicates to me, without reading the full documentation of both papers…that someone may have had a quota to fill in respect to publish articles. What is the next title going to be contain..mitigate…control the pandemic?

The romantic attraction of these titles for regulators and governments and in some senses researchers, is an old problem for humans…once again we are going to control nature…we are going to contain or mitigate (whatever that means) H5N1.

I don’t know how you model a disease you know so little about but given the occurence in 1997–2004, it would seem that one would first determine if it was more like 1918 or 1968 pandemic viruses. Having determined it was more like 1918 then I don’t think we would model on 1968 and MITIGATE…CONTROL THE PANDEMIC…

…I am reading John Barry’s book and although I am finding it difficult to read, there is some overwhelming anecdotal or circumstancial and direct evidence to indicate that they couldn’t control it and we won’t either.

One could also read the 1968 data to compare the effects of these two in a sense outliers.

One comment I noticed in the Fergusons’s abstract was ‘School closure during the peak of a pandemic can reduce peak attack rates but has little impact on overall attack rates’…so I guess than we keep the schools open at the ‘peak of the pandemic’…that is the type of information we get from modeling?

from your post at 1:18

Well, he is a modeller, so he’s got a right to play around with his models. A lot worse papers have been published than his.

But the ethics behind what he tells policymakers is a different story. The limitations of modelling are all in his papers and especially in the even thicker supplementary material (I believe 17 pages for one of the papers, took me a long time to read them), but he does not translate those limitations into English.

I’ve listened to the guy and he manages to make everything very believable. Therein lies the problem. It’s a very esoteric science, and not many people are capable of seriously rebutting his ideas.

I think in this description of modelling in general, without myself making any disparaging comments on Dr. Ferguson himself, these comments could be made about witchcraft or religion or several other ‘snake oil’ type products where they sound really good without really saying anything of substance.

to be continued

Tom DVM – at 11:23

Something I forgot to add above was that when the supplementary explanations or limitations to a paper are longer than the paper…it means ‘Houston…we have a problem’.

LauraBat 11:35

You can model til’ cows come home (did it in a former life) but there are so many unknown variables in this one that can make the situation either semi-manageable or competely impossible. Those things would include infrastructure, HCW showing up for work, supplies (food, meds), power, financial markets, etc. Also, how the media reacts and covers the crisis as well as how the public reacts to the crisis could have a devistating impact. If the media does its usual stellar job (note sarcasm in my typing) there will be panic in the streets. It won’t matter if the CFR is low or high. There will be initial panic that could get really ugly. And if the CFR is high and/or this goes on for long periods of time, there is no telling how what’s left of society will react.

I agree with a previous post that what happens on local levels will make the difference. If a community, even a decent sized city (let’s Kansas City as an example), has it’s act together and it’s citizens are at least semi-prepared (eg. had two weeks worth of food and water, which is better than the current two days of supplies people have right now, at best), and it’s citizens knew it was coming (upfront awareness can help mitigate the reactions people will have), then that city has a shot. Or at least, a better shot than than most do right now.

So, I’ll continue to prod local officials and do what I can nearby(micro-level). On a macro-level too much is out of my control.

anonymous – at 11:35

“There are no asymptomatic infections” And we know this how? If there are it would change the CFR significantly.

Tom DVM – at 11:35

Okay, so what’s the bottom line for this type of modeling most often funded by governments or regulators? Is this a harmless esoteric excercise…kind of fun exercise?

Then the regulator (my friend Dick Thompson) jumps in with both feet and no brain and starts foaming at the mouth while distributing the World Health Organizations new Mantra to everyone who will listen including my dog Clover, the Norwegian Elkhound.

Well, the MSM are going to report on the issue and their headlines will read…

…World Health Organization will Mitigate…Contain the coming pandemic…and since people scanning the print will skip most of the article, they will miss the small 7 word disclaimer at the bottom which more often than not doesn’t exist anyway.

Sovereign regulatory agencies (for example the Public Health Agency of Canada)look at each other, have thirty top level meetings and telephone conferences across the country, and determine that why should they worry if the World Health Organization isn’t concerned. The Public Health Agency of Canada then goes to the Government of Canada and states that…

…there is nothing to worry about…the World Health Organization has done the modelling and they are going to contain or mitigate the pandemic.

Therefore, this is subtle but perniscous ‘brain washing’ to create a false sense of security that slithers down from the World Health Organization AND BECOMES AN EXCUSE FOR INACTION…

…and by the way, I have describes exactly what has actually happened in the past ten years…

…so annon 22, I will have to disagree with your premis that a nice guy who is distributing flawed modeling results is harmless. I could draw analogies to the harmless men distributing propoganda in past times but I won’t…I don’t need to.

Thanks for the information…it was an eye opener as usual.

Tom DVM – at 11:41

anonymous You are right…we like you…please pick a name!!

LauraB. “You can model til’ cows come home (did it in a former life)”

          Okay…Excellent…I look forward to the benefit of your field experience with respect to further comments on this and related issues…Thanks.
LauraBat 11:54

Tom: is that sarcasm I detect or genunine interest? I am more than happy to help out if needed. My main point was simply that in my previous experience, with far more known variables than what we are talking about here, sh++ happens that you can’t model for. Many assumptions have to be made in the absence of data and one small change can throw the whole forecast out the window. And in the end, there is so much we can not control. Even if we knew for sure that the CFR was going to be high, would that change what you are doing? Yes, it might get others to prep more. But I suspect that given the lack of interest in AF by the majority of people, gov’ts and media, no one will pay much attention to it until bodies start piling up.

Sorry to be so negative - the kids are still not back in school and are really getting on my nerves today. The thought of a long-term SIP with them is REALLY unappealing right now!

Tom DVM – at 12:05

LauraB. No, I meant that I sincerely would appreciate your comments and your expertise in these matters…and yes, I was being sarcastic about the World Health Organization because I believe, based on the evidence, that they are bunglers and fools…maybe I didn’t get that hat off quick enough before I made my comment to you.

I appreciate your past contributions and I hope for many more in the future…after your kids are back in school. /:0)

anon_22 – at 13:18

Tom DVM – at 11:20 “With respect to Dr. Ferguson…his two papers appear to be very similar…’containing an influenza pandemic’ and ‘mitigating an influenza pandemic’ which indicates to me, without reading the full documentation of both papers…that someone may have had a quota to fill in respect to publish articles. What is the next title going to be contain..mitigate…control the pandemic?

No, one is containing a pandemic at the source, eg in Asia, the other one is mitigating it for the US and UK.

Tom DVM – at 11:23 “Something I forgot to add above was that when the supplementary explanations or limitations to a paper are longer than the paper…it means ‘Houston…we have a problem’.

:-)

I didn’t want to read them to start with, but then I had so many questions which were answered in the supplementary.

Here’s my key revelation, and you can say you arrived at the same thing without reading those damned papers, but for what it’s worth:

When you model something that involves multiple variables, and every variable gives you a range of possibility (ie confidence limit), as the number of variables increase, the range of possibilities also increase. If there is a ± 2% error on any item, and you have 25 variables, you will get ± 50% error, which renders whatever final number you get rather meaningless.

But, as I said, it was useful for my own understanding of the dynamics of how flu is spread.

anon_22 – at 13:21

Tom DVM – at 11:35

Okay, so what’s the bottom line for this type of modeling most often funded by governments or regulators? Is this a harmless esoteric excercise…kind of fun exercise?

No, it’s not. Its a model for not doing anything else.

Having said that, I’m willing to play their game. So my question is, based on these models that said social distancing works, what is the justification for UK amd other governments’ not telling people to stockpile? Do they expect people to stay home and starve?

enza – at 13:44

A few days ago I asked if we suspected there may be another (intermediate perhaps) vector in the observed cases in Indo. Although I know we just can’t tell, my q is: is anyone looking for that other vector? Based on the raw epidemiological data coming out of there, something’s just not adding up. My 0.02c is that ether there is very efficient b2h (as in, look at a chicken and you will get sick), h2h2h is present but under very limited circumstances, or there is another vector that is very efficiently trransmitting the virus to birds, human and others like itself.

enza – at 13:46

RE: plans, I have revised all to reccommend 3 months. I just can’t in good conscience do otherwise.

gharris – at 13:56

enza - Dr Niman says the recent sequences released in Indon do not show the ‘novel cleavage site’ that birds dying of H5N1 have in that geographical area - i.e. it appears that the recent outbreaks are NOT caused by infection directly from infected chickens - there is DEFINITELY some other vector!! WHO is not pushing hard enough for testing of other mammals or insects! Perhaps they already know that the ‘other vector’ is human and that this is already h2h2h??

anon_22 – at 16:34

The problem with Indonesia is that we have way to few bird samples to conclude anything, IMHO.

LMWatBullRunat 18:23

Anon_22-

The problem with Indonesia is that we have far too little knowledge about real conditions of any kind and far too little DATA of any sort.

anon_22 – at 18:28

true

lugon – at 18:34

we have just about enough data to be somewhat worried, right? :-/

02 September 2006

Bump – at 00:59
LMWatBullRunat 12:30

SOMEwhat worried? Well, I am expecting a really bad pandemic to come out of Indonesia any day now. It’s sort of like looking at a semitrailer truck coming at you in really slow motion; You know it’s going to be bad, you just don’t know how bad till it happens.

But I’m really not worried; I’ve made my preparations, my friends are ready, and we’ll see what happens

Gary Near Death Valley – at 21:15

LMWatBullRun – at 12:30 Basically that is where my wife and I are at also, and I agree with you, if one has the preps in place, and their head is straight, all one can do is watch as the train comes thru the tunnel. The light is getting brighter and you know that it will be right at your feet soon, but I and my wife have stepped back, being prepped and will watch as that train by passes us,,,,and we pass the word every chance we get to friends and relatives. I do feel the time is fairly short (in geometric timeline), and this train will be here WITHIN 2 years, and most likely this winter or next.

gharris – at 23:34

bump

03 September 2006

BUMP – at 06:56

05 September 2006

anonymous – at 14:52

I was reading up on the NC pandemic plan, and at the beginning of the section on mass fatalities, it’s got this info…


‘’Approximately 75,000 deaths occurred in North Carolina in 2004.

During a six to eight week wave of pandemic influenza, North Carolina could experience approximately 5600 deaths due to influenza.’‘


In 2005 1,534 people died from car crashes in the state. So when you compare the estimate of panflu deaths for a 2 month period to fatal car wrecks for the year, then that sounds kind of bad. But it seems like a low-ball figure to me and I’m not sure why they want to low-ball the estimate.

My research shows that the population of NC in 2005 was 8,683,242.

Dennis in Colorado – at 11:27 was quoting Dr. Bob Gleeson… In a town of 1,000,000 people then: 250,000 will become ill, 75,000 will seek medical attention, 7,500 will go the hospital, and 1,875 will die.

At that rate, if the population of NC is 8.7 times the population in the example, would that mean that we could estimate using his formula that 16,312 people would die? It seems that Dr. Gleeson is very optimistic while the state of NC is simply delusional.

This calculation of 5600 out of 8,683,242 seems to mean that they calculate that way less than a tenth of 1% of the population would die as a result of the pandemic. Anyone know how they could possibly come up with this formula?

Are other states estimating similar numbers? It’s no wonder people figure it’s no big deal.

INFOMASS – at 15:16

A lot depends on how long you think the panflu will keep hitting and if it will come in waves or stay at the same (high) level. Estimates of the share of those likely to be infected run from 1/4 (low) to 3/4 or even more and the case fatality rates from a few per cent to 50% or even more. All of this is speculative and depends on both the characteristics of the virus and the characteristics of the response, including how well medical care holds up and if social distancing and staying home reduces the infection rate or stretches it out. If we take a 50% infection rate and a 10% direct fatality rate, we get 4.3 million sick and 430,000 dead from the flu in one year. But the actual number could be quite different in either direction.

NJ Jeeper – at 15:29

Where am I wrong? 300,000,000 US citizens ±, x 50% infection rate = 150,000,000 infected. x 10% CFR = 15,000,000 dead. A 30% infection rate and 5% = 4,500,000 dead.

Please tell me where this is wrong?

The Sarge – at 15:34

I have seen multiple states running with figures along these lines:

30% attack rate (portion of the population that gets sick)

0.44% (that’s 0.0044)case fatality rate (those who get sick and die)- less than 1 in 200.

I still can’t fathom where they get these numbers, and why they are basing emergency preparedness decisions on them. IMHO it’s for two reasons - any higher than that and TPTB can’t even conceive of handling it and, it helps them sleep at night. I call BS!

Conservative and accepted estimates of the 1918 pandemic were more along the lines of a 2.5% CFR (although many here will dispute that as being too low - I know, I know - just let it go for the sake of arguement, please). The attack rate is unknown, because of the near impossibility in arriving at an accurate diagnosis in 1918, but were somewhere between about 25 and 40%.

So, if we were planning for a “worst-case” scenario, modeled on the 1918 outbreak, the fair state of North Carolina would look something like this (based on Anonymous’ figure at 14:52, above).

2.6 million sick (30% attack rate)

260,000 hospitalized (1 in ten of those who get sick) Or, maybe more accurately, NEEDING hospitalization, since there isn’t anywhere near that many hospital beds or skilled people to take care of the patients - 90%+ of these folks won’t see the inside of a hospital.

65,000 dead (2.5% CFR)

And I think that’s being rather generous.

Tom DVM – at 15:36

NJ You are not wrong.

It all really depends whether the first wave is virulent or mild. If it is mild, there will be at least partial immunity when the virulent wave hits…

If the first wave is the virulent wave, then all bets are off, in my opinion.

Tom DVM – at 15:38

Sorry, If the first wave is virulent, then we will probably experience a short, sharp pandemic…one wave…very bad.

The Sarge – at 15:39

Tom DVM -

I respectfully beg to differ -

It appears that there was a ‘mild’ wave in the 1918 pandemic that preceeded the disastrous October-November wave, and there was still a great impact. Of course, this is open to a lot of interpretation since so much of our information is retrospective and has had to be reconstructed through the works of folks like J.K. Taubenberger and so on.

Tom DVM – at 15:47

Sarge. I respectfully agree with you. That was my point!! Because the first wave or maybe two in 1918 was mild…we got off easy.

Tom DVM – at 15:49

Sorry, I shouldn’t have said we got off easy in 1918…I should have said we got off a lot easier than if the first wave in 1918 had been the virulent one.

The Sarge – at 15:51

Tom DVM -

If our present situation turns out worse than 1918… shudder…

It’s sort of understandable, but not excusable, that TPTB prefer to work with the low-ball figures.

NJ Jeeper – at 15:52

It would be a shame for us to think we got off easy, if we had a 1918 type pandemic. But based on the current 60% CFR, I would take the 1918 result, at least there is hope there and the vast majority of people survived.

Hurricane Alley RN – at 15:56

Need HELP! Is Indo. going through a second wave or is rhis what the stewing pot looks like since the H2H is still low? My old brain is doing some unusal things with the possible CFR outcome. gina

Hillbilly Bill – at 15:57

Try as I might, I just cannot get my mind around a first really bad wave with a high CFR.

The Sarge – at 15:58

I think that there are some rather interesting psychological mechanisms at work - see the previous threads regarding adjustment reactions. Few can come to grips with the potential for a disease that wipes out a significant part of the population. Some learned folks will argue here that it can’t happen - that killing off the host species is a ‘bad strategy’ for a bug - as if a virus had a long-term planning horizon.

I’m not so sanguine - I need only look at Dutch Elm disease - it’s pretty much made Dutch Elm trees in the US extinct - but that didn’t stop it, did it? American honey bees are steadily being wiped out by a combination of two parasites. Killing off the hosts doesn’t seem to slowing them down either.

We are different only in our capacity to respond and counter-attack, not that we have some magical innate immunity to a bug behaving badly.

Tom DVM – at 16:05

Hillbilly Bill. I agree completely…but we must know our enemy and by knowing it maybe we can get some ‘purchase’ on the problem.

gina. What is going on in Indonesia at the moment is preamble…the virus is still messing around trying to get an edge on the transmissibility problem and only being successful a little at a time. It is making steady progress, however.

Now, if that million pigs in China turns out to be H5N1…I am going to the grocery store in the morning to start prepping…if you know what I mean. They are definitely hiding something or many things…I am not sure at the moment.

Hillbilly Bill – at 16:13

Tom DVM – at 16:05

I think you should start prepping anyway!

Tom DVM – at 16:16

Hillbilly Bill. Thanks I know you are right…I have done a lot of thinking about it and other then tempting fate and being a procrastinator…I think you answered it in your post at 15:57. As long as I don’t start prepping, I don’t have to get my head around it…I don’t have to believe it is real…funny eh!!

INFOMASS – at 16:31

NJ Jeeper at 15:29: Your math is fine, but you are leaving out the impact, if any, of a breakdown in food supplies, utilities, medical care [even for non-panflu problems] and perhaps law and order. If ten million or so died directly in the US from the panflu, it is likely that some additional number would also die from the secondary impact. The secondary impact is likely to be non-linear - if many millions more die directly, the impact on secondary mortality is likely to go up exponentially. This “breakdown” scenario is what is really scary and I think it keeps many people from thinking seriously or acting on the glimpses of chaos they see. One relative said, “You know, sometimes it is just easier to die.”

NJ Jeeper – at 16:38

INFOMASS – at 16:31 I agree with you 100%. Just hard to imagine it would be that bad, but I have to prep as best I can and hope for the best. We can not control and prepare for every possiblitly. In the end, I will be able to say I did the best I could and if it was enough great and if not then I will be ok with it.

Hurricane Alley RN – at 17:12

Tom, Do you think China will tell anyone if they have pigs that are h5n1? My eight ball says, “Not likely”. Now about you’re lack of prepping… The only thing I want you to wrap around this thing is pure logic. We are talking simple math here. Now get up off your ass and move. Procrastination period is now over. Disconnect your Umbilical Cord from the computer! If I can do it, so can you! See, I have faith in you. Please don’t break our collective hearts. Dieing from the flu may not be avoidable, but dieing from starvation(?)… gina

Tom DVM – at 17:54

Gina /:0)

…and by the way, China isn’t going to tell us anything because…simply…they don’t have to thanks entirely to us!!

But I know them pretty well by now and I think Monotreme and maybe some others do to…so hopefully, flu wiki will know what they are up to before anyone else figures it out.

I’m a man…I can change…if I have to…I guess…

…(Man’s prayer from the Red Green Tv Show.)

Northstar – at 18:43

Tom DVM: I tried googling news on all sorts of derivations of “China Pigs Dying” but nothing comes up. PLEASE do share what this is about the chinese pigs!

anonymous – at 19:09

Mystery Swine Deaths in Eastern China Recombinomics Commentary September 4, 2006 link

LEG – at 19:46

The collateral damage numbers of unhealthy people dying from their meds having run out and/or lack of available medical care because all the facilities are overwhelmed by flu patients will be really astounding, IMHO. Triage in ER’s will be a nightmare.

06 September 2006

EnoughAlreadyat 01:01

bttt

anonymous – at 06:50

Does anyone know off-hand what percentage of unvaccinated people come down with regular seasonal flu in any given year? I know this is a problem because of the fact that most of the time doctors don’t test for flu, pediatricians can’t diagnose flu in children, and a lot of sick people try to recuperate at home without seeing a doctor. Still, is there anyone who has studied the flu statistically and they think they have a realiable guestimate about what percentage of the unvaccinated population in the US gets the flu during any given flu season?

INFOMASS – at 07:09

anon at 06:50: If you go to General Vaccination Discussion II thread and click to get back to the part #I, and go to Sept. 1st, anon_22 at 18:55 quotes one study that finds high effectiveness of flu shots. I (INFOMASS) quote a metastudy (study of many studies) in Lancet at 21:52 that day that finds about 50% effectiveness and Tom DVM at 22:01 quotes a study that finds no effectiveness. Obviously, the scientific findings are all over the map, but it is fair to say that on balance the shots seem to work variably and do some good in many cases. (Side-effects is another issue.) I do not know the prevalence of flu during the flu season, but Racter may have mentioned that about 10% of the whole US population gets sick to some degree from it, but you would have to get that confirmed.

07 November 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 21:01

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Can Someone Please Tell Me

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Can Someone Please Tell Me

05 September 2006

Mommy2Myaat 22:54

Can someone please tell me any recent developments with H5N1? I haven’t been on in a while and don’t want to have to read through everything. lol. After the Karo cluster, has anything major happened? Thank you!

Average Concerned Mom – at 22:59

M2M— I’d say go ahead and read the News Threads for the past few weeks — AnieB has been summarizing the basic news (with links) from the day before and you can get a good update that way!

Yeah, there’s been some stuff going on….

MAinVAat 23:00

Check out the Indonesia thread — the one that ends with NO COMMENTARY in the title. On the first page near the top is a map that gives you a visual of all the recent cases. Lots of activity; however as yet it isn’t “tripping switches” to send us off in a panic.

MAinVAat 23:02

Since you might have to scroll to find the specific thread, here is a link to it http://tinyurl.com/k9vm9

Tom DVM – at 23:05

Mommy2Mya. Hi Good to see you again.

I guess the way I would put it is that there has been more background noise then last summer, most of it occuring in Indonesia but also in both Vietnam and Thailand, the ‘poster children’ for the World Health Organization.

There has been a lot of secrecy by those that you would expect it from but also unexpectedly from the World Health Organization. I expect that we will know the reason for the secrecy in the next few weeks as things develop a little further.

The bottom line…it is a good time to keep your ear close to the ground…

Are we closer to a pandemic? That’s a tough one…I think so but I may be prejudiced because I have felt it would be this winter-spring for more than two years…Others may want to comment on this…I hope I turn out to be wrong in the end and H5N1 goes away never to return.

06 September 2006

Call of the Wild – at 00:40

The risk hasn’t changed. I just restored the preps we ate over the last couple of months when I was starting to believe it was going away.

07 November 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:58

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Activities II

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Activities II

02 August 2006

Bronco Bill – at 00:09

More Fun and Games continued from here

04 August 2006

Average Concerned Mom – at 13:04

Well, I just completed another modified practice SIP — this one was the heat wave that came through, and since no one wanted to go anywhere or do anything, we just stayed home — alone — for 4 days in a row. No nursery school, no pool, no library, no visits, no nothing but Mom, the 1 year old and the 4 year old. Daddy did come home at 6:30 every night to a screaming mommy.

Hanging out alone with small children is not for the faint of heart and I have a few small inklings of how hard a true SIP for even 2 weeks or so would be on us. I am assuming with older children who can actually play with each other it might not be so bad; or with a 4 year old who is not a huge extrovert, maybe a sedate child who just likes to sit and play by himself, not one who is so in-your-fact all the time.

But anyhow, I have a lot more ideas about (a) how hard it will be and (b) things to do to try to make it easier mentally.

1) a schedule 2) some mandatory alone time for everyone. 3) some time for kids to play with each other 4) mandatory “no talking” time — mellow time 5) positive attitude

This last one was when I heard my self talk about how crappy this week was, how it was really awful to be stuck inside with the kids again. That negtive attitude did a number on me and influences how I behaved with the kids. WHen I forced myself to say nice things, i did get along better with them.

In thinking about why there aren’t more young people on this list, esp. parents of young children, I think part of it is, there is no way people my age can comprehend staying home with their kids (instead of working) for longer than a week. I know when I mention bird-flu to my working-mom, professional friends, they all agreed it was an important issue, but the idea of schools closing and being home with the kids was what worried them the most — not running out of food or medicine.

Anyhow, after I have a little more breathing room, I’m going to get back to work on my guide, just wanted you all to know I wasn’t giving up.

Average Concerned Mom – at 13:05

PS I wasn’t really scremaing, that’s an exaggeration, I was pretty wiped out though by the day. (-:

Kathy in FL – at 19:16

Average Concerned Mom – at 13:04

Schedules are also a good thing when dealing with young children. LOL! And schedules should always include nap or quiet time. <grin>

I’ve found that little kids have no sense of time, or very little constructive sense of it. By breaking the days down into more manageable chunks of time and making sure I know what is supposed to be happening during those chunks of time it has made it much easier to deal with kids … regardless of their age, but especially with younger children that haven’t learned to self-manage yet.

05 September 2006

Bump – at 09:52

07 November 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:58

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / What I Learned on My Summer Vacation

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: What I Learned on My Summer Vacation

25 July 2006

Bronco Bill – at 15:14

This is a long post, so stay with me here…

I spent this past week working on the house my wife and I are purchasing in the southeastern portion of Virginia, USA. As we worked on the house, we found that one of the bedroom walls was falling away, and investigated. What we found was mold growing on the inside of the north-facing wall. As it turns out, it wasn’t just ordinary mold…it was a bit more toxic than that. A local mold remediation company was called and they began their work. For two days, two of their technicians sealed off the room, donned fully self-contained PPE gear and respirators and removed the mold, then treated the remaining walls.

Now, here’s the scenario: both of the days they worked, they were inside an air-conditioned room. The A/C was set at 72 degrees Fahrenheit. The outdoor temp was about 94 degrees, with humidity at about 75%. At the end of 6 hours of wearing PPE and masks, each of these techs removed their suits and was absolutely soaked from sweat. I’m not talking their t-shirts were damp. I’m talking they looked like they had just stepped out of a shower fully clothed!

After they finished and got cleaned up, I found some time to talk with them about their gear…full CDC-approved PPE suits and respirators worn under full hoods.. The suits were made of a Tyvek-type of material on the outside, but on the inside were coated with a very thin lining of vinyl, and were non-breathing. The respirators were NIOSH N/P100 with small, 2-pound air tanks attached for positive air flow. These guys were completely sealed off from the ambient air around them.

Here is where I know that I’m going to get flamed and yelled at. What they told me about masks is sure to make a lot of you rethink going to work or into town wearing a simple mask that you may have bought at one of the big home-improvement stores (like I did), and how often you’ll want to wear a full PPE suit.

Masks

According to these experts in mold and bacteria removal, N or P100 masks alone will not stop a virus. They are designed for particulates, those things you see floating around in the air after working with a saw or a shop vacuum cleaner, or unseen, non-malleable particles. The problem, as they explained it, is that viruses are living things and are very malleable. When they come into contact with the fibers on a standard mask, they can bend and twist to make their way through to the inside without too much trouble. The chances of it happening are low, they both admit, but still, the chances are high enough to warrant not wearing those types of masks. The techs explained that that’s the reason the folks in CDC labs and in the movies wear full bio-suits. They told me that while in NOLA, many of the techs from other companies that wore what they thought were acceptable N100 masks during mold remediation and repair came down sick from a number of respiratory ailments, all due to using cheap masks and not wearing fully self-contained PPE suits. My question was this: if they wear full bio-suits for mold and bacteria, would a standard PPE suit work for viruses? Their answer, in tandem, was a resounding “NO WAY!!”

The guy who was the ‘boss’ onsite is a Project Manager for the company, and his partner is a Remediation Manager. They both stated that the reason the WHO, the gov’t, and the CDC are advising the public to buy these N95 and higher masks is simply to console and placate the public and keep people from panicking. Obviously an opinion on their part, but an informed opinion at that.

Both of these guys agreed that, with the danger that H5N1 poses, social distancing and using, minimally, N/P100 masks is the best option. Don’t get within 10 to 15 feet (literally) of any other persons on the street or at work.

The Project Manager is also the company’s “Mask Fitter” for all their technicians. He said that he’s had a lot of the techs get fitted for their masks, only to find out that the masks didn’t really form a good seal around the men with goatees. The way he checks for fit is to have the “fittee” put the mask on, then a “black-out” hood over that. Then he wafts banana smoke under the hood and asks them if they can smell it. If they say yes, then he does a refit on the mask and repeats the process. If they say no, then he wafts a very acrid stink-bomb smoke under the hood and asks again if they can smell it. He said that the fittee will usually have the hood and mask off their heads and be running for the door before he’s even able to ask…

The masks they used are rated N100. They are rubberized gas masks with twin carbon filters and a positive air flow hose attached to an air tank on their backs. The air tank creates a 2–3psi pressure inside the mask, thereby forcing air out of the mask at all times.

PPE suits

In a word, HOT!!!, and I don’t mean High Fashion!!. The Project Manager, while working in New Orleans, lost 10 pounds in two days of wearing his gear. The company changed their work policy after seeing the effects of wearing PPE for more then 3 hours at a time in that kind of heat to reflect a policy of “2 hours on, 2 hours off”. After working in the suits for two hours, each tech is also required to drink at least 1 quart of an electrolyte solution such as Gator-Aid or Power-Aid before being allowed to go back to work. They were able to work for 6 hours at our house because we had the A/C cranked so low. Many of the better suits have chest cavities that can hold cold-packs to keep the body’s core temperature down to tolerable levels. The suits they had were not exactly like you may have seen in some of the disaster movies like “Outbreak” or “Andromeda Strain” or “The Stand”. These were more ‘form-fitting’ and easier to move around in, more like a mechanic’s coveralls, with a little hump on the back where the air tank sits.
As I sat and watched them put on these suits, I timed them to see how long it takes “experts” to don something like this. 30 minutes. First, the air-tank is mounted into a sling and worn on the back like a backpack. Then, one partner attaches the hose to the tank and runs it up over the shoulder to the mask and attaches it. The wearer then Velcro’s and zips up the front of the suit all the way to the top of his neck, just below his chin. His partner then places the hood over the his head and Velcro’s and zips it to the coverall suit.
I have to say that, at this point, it was very un-nerving to see them walking into my new home dressed this way. Very scary…ya know how your tummy seems to tumble when you have that anxious feeling? Yeah…just like that!

When they were done at the end of each day, they climbed into their trailer, turned on a large vacuum cleaner, then took turns stepping into an enclosed shower. The reason for this was to wash off any of the mold that had landed on their suits. The vacuum cleaner was attached first to a water filter and reclamation unit, and the air was forced through a set of HEPA filters to remove any mold particles that might make it past the water bath.

Apparently, even with standard PPE and N95/100 masks, a person would still be at risk of contacting a virus like H5N1, so basically, we all may want to rethink the use of masks and PPE gear, and simply SIP until the danger has passed.

On top of all that, when I got back to California, instead of a regular 2 1/2 hour drive from San Jose to FresNo, it took over seven hours because my poor little Jeep didn’t like being left in the long-term parking lot under the blazing California sun for over a week. Radiator plugged up, air-conditioning on the fritz, boiling over about every 3 miles, 113 degrees on Hwy 101 in stop ‘n go traffic. Ah yes, California living at it’s finest!

Hillbilly Bill – at 15:22

BB - all I can say is I’m glad I only spent $100 on N95′s…

Bronco Bill – at 15:27

I only spent $120…6 boxes from Home Depot. Hmmm…I wonder if I can take them back? Maybe I’ll tell them that my science project was cancelled…

tjclaw1 – at 15:31

What an awful experience - and you just bought this house, right? I suspected that the N95 wasn’t going to be good enough for a virus. Isn’t that what they’re recommending for health care workers too? Providing a false sense of security?

The scenario you describe reminds me of, uh, “Ghostbusters.” My brother-in-law works in a nuclear power plant and has to get suited up to work in containment. I should ask him about it. I imagine it is very hot. I do know that despite all the precautions they take, they still get contaminated, but at least they know it when they go through the detector. BIL now has skin cancer and has an apt with a specialist tomorrow because he’s having problems swallowing - he’s only 44, and I’m concerned that the long-term exposure to radiation in his job may cut his life short. Anyway, I digress, if a person is planning on PPE to protect them, consider that you are risking your life and whether you trust the PPE you’re using to really protect you.

I agree with your assessment that it will be better to shelter in place, but if going out is absolutely necessary, such as taking a sick or injured child to the doctor, then use a PPE and practice social distancing.

Kathy in FL – at 15:39

Well, at least I haven’t sunk much money into masks … nada really except for a box for working outside, not around people.

I’m still glad I have a few boxes of latex gloves … but they’ll come in handy for a lot of different things even if there is no pandemic.

Glad you made it home safely … even if slowly <grin> Been there, done that with the cranky vehicle in hot weather. <yuck>

NauticalManat 15:44

BB Sorry to hear about your experience with the new house. Seems like I have heard more and more stories along this line in recent years. Who knew mold could be so dangerous and could get so entrenched in a home as to need to be removed?

As far as the masks are concerned, am sure you are correct and suspected this from the begining. My N95′s are better than nothing and will plan on using them only if it is absolutely necessary to go out and will use as many other precautions as possible, especially distancing, antiseptic measures etc. The situation that worries me the most at our age is if, God forbid, we have a medical emergency and need to go to a hospital. Have most of the meds needed to SIP including prescription, OTC, and so on, but as we get older we become more familiar with emergency rooms, doctors, tests. In fact, I have heard it said that is why God lets us retire, so we will have time to do all that stuff!

CAMikeat 15:45

BB, thanks for the information. The folks that have do deal with molds (presumably the notorious black mold) should know what they are talking about.

It does sound like using N95/N100 masks still provide some protection, though, just not the level that we were lead to believe.

I hear you about leaving the car in the sun at San Jose airport. I just got back from a 5 day trip to L.A. My car feels sluggish, probably due to the heat.

Anyway, back on topic, I plan to SIP for as long as I can. If I have to go out then I will wear the N95 masks that I have and will try to keep my distance. I only have supplies for a couple of months, live in an apartment complex and will more then likely have to go outside to cook at some point, so have little choice. I don’t plan on going the full hazmat route.

I hope you made some progress on the new place. From experience, I know that dealing with mold is expensive. I hope it did not break the bank.

Mike

Bronco Bill – at 15:49

From experience, I know that dealing with mold is expensive. I hope it did not break the bank.

Thanks…but not my bank. :-) Previous owner gets to pay this bill! My understanding is that it’ll run her about $5000 for the two days’ work. The area of wall they rebuilt? About 8 (eight!) square feet.

Bronco Bill – at 15:55

One of the things I know about mold is that it needs a dark, humid, almost hot, area to grow in. Usually the worst in the summer months. That’s why it’s found in so many buildings between Maine and Floriday, and along the Gulf Coast. Not so much on the West Coast or Southwestern deserts…it’s too dry here.
The mold that was found in this house was definitely Black Mold. The two techs suspected it when they saw it, I suspected it when I saw it, and their lab confirmed it. It wasn’t on a piece of wallboard much larger than about 1 foot square, but their job is to eradicate it to the Nth degree…that’s why they pulled down a 2 foot x 4 foot section of wall…

Bronco Bill – at 15:56

Floriday? Mr. Eccles..can I borrow Mavis for a while…??

CAMikeat 15:57

BB, glad to hear it. I was hoping that the previous owners would be on the hook for it.

My parents were quoted a price of $17,000 for a small amount of black mold on the ceiling. The spore level was on the low side so my dad just repaired the dry wall and repainted. He said that we (my siblingd and I) could deal with it after we inherited the house.

Mike

okcinder – at 16:01

Wow…thanks for the info.

Ditto on the sentiments of the others in glad I didn’t spend much on mine (3 boxes). But still feel safer wearing those rather than nothing if I have to get out.

OKbirdwatcherat 16:10

Off to get a large supply of DampRid :-/ Thanks for sharing, BB.

Eccles – at 16:11

BB- Go ahead. mavis has not been treating me well lately. Even after the session with her assoicate with the “Teaching Stick” I can do no better now than before.

Bronco Bill – at 16:16

CAMike – at 15:57 LOL!! Thanks, Dad!!

All---I have to agree that N95 masks will give better protection than nothing at all, but on the other hand, what the techs told me about viruses (virii?) being malleable was something that I had not heard before. You can be sure that I will be trying to stand upwind of everybody!!

tjclaw1 – at 16:35

Bronco Bill – at 15:49 “Previous owner gets to pay this bill!”

You must have discovered the mold before closing? or had a good lawyer ;)

Bronco Bill – at 16:47

tjclaw1 – at 16:35 --- We’re not actually buying the house until December. Owner needs to retain posession until at least the end of September to avoid paying capital gains taxes. We wrote up a lease-option contract, and stated what she was responsible for. The mold was found as we were doing an inspection with her present, and she volunteered to have it cleaned up. When she found out what it was going to cost her, she was not happy!!!

Not my problem…

Kim – at 16:49

BroncoBill, my sympathies on your mold problem. About 12 years ago had the same problem in my (finished) basement walls. I knew there’d been water damage down there, but every inch of the back of the sheetrock (and portions of the front) was solid black. At the time I didn’t really know what bad stuff it was, and we tore it all out ourselves, wearing no protection whatsoever. OMG, I thought I was going to die! Developed asthma & flu-type symptoms which lasted about 2 months (even worse symptoms than what I’d had since moving into the house), I just really felt like crap and could barely breathe. After getting it all out I began to feel better, but I think it took several months. I honestly think I’d tackle an asbestos removal project before I’d try another mold removal project! BTW, never did have much faith in those masks… I’ve used them on jobs and could never get the things to seal properly, they’re hotter ‘n h*ll, and I could still smell fumes even when wearing one.

tjclaw1 – at 16:55

Bronco Bill – at 16:47

You were very, very lucky. A real estate lawyer’s worst nightmare discovery before or after closing - mold, aesbestos, UGSTs (underground storage tanks), dumps …. ugh, brings back ugly nightmares of private practice.

knowall – at 17:05

NIOSH uses a formula to determine which mask is appropriate for a specific type of particle. Particle size and malleability aren’t the only factors, the formula also includes: concentration of particles in the air, lethality of particles, amount of time a person will be exposed to the particles, whether the particles contain oil, and the actual conditions under which the person will be exposed (healthcare worker, cleanup crew, equipment tester, etc.). I *think* NIOSH recommends N-95 masks for protection against viruses in terms of it being a minimum level of protection for short-term exposure in a healthcare situation, as opposed to a maximum level. In addition, there isn’t any conclusive research evidence about the amount of protection that masks really offer against viruses. So, I don’t think they are trying to placate people, instead they are basing their recommendations on what is known . . . and that isn’t much. I bought 60 masks a long time ago and haven’t felt like buying any more because of the lack of evidence for their efficacy. On the other hand, they are probably better than nothing if someone sneezes on you by accident.

Bronco Bill – at 17:15

knowall – at 17:05 --- I do agree with you about the NIOSH formulary. Length of exposure is a major player in the rating system. However, if TSHTF, and HCWs are faced with working with infected people all day every day for hours and hours at a time, I would think that would constitute a bit more than “minimal exposure”.

And what with the gov’t saying “buy N95 masks, you’re on your own”, I have to wonder, why don’t they say “buy N100 masks for greater protection”? Are N95 masks easier to find?

knowall – at 17:31

Hi Bronco Bill - at 17:15 - My understanding is that according to the way NIOSH reasons, N100 doesn’t offer greater protection than the N-95--it offers the same amount of protection as the N-95. The reason for this is because even though the N100 might have smaller pores, the size of the N-95 pores are enough to do the job, taking into account the variation in the size of the virus. Plus, in a healthcare situation, NIOSH is thinking that workers will dispose of the masks after each contact with a patient. Does that make sense? I’m not a healthcare worker but maybe it would be overkill for them to wear more than the N-95, for example, a full-face respirator, if they have to dispose of them many times per day.

Bronco Bill – at 17:52

Makes perfect sense to me. I honestly don’t know about the difference ‘tween the two types of masks. Their comparisons have been debated here on the Forums for quite some time now, inlcuding the old Forum. I imagine, based on seeing these guys working with full respirators, that it would get awfully uncomfortable, even in the colder months.

knowall – at 18:51

I’m not sure about the difference between the two, either, I just know it has something to do with microns and exposure and that NIOSH formula. I think the most important thing is to do what makes you feel the most secure within your budget. Even if everyone is saying that N-95′s are rated as “adequate,” if you are the kind of person who worries about such things, it might make more sense to go ahead and buy the N-100′s or even full body gear, if that’s what it takes to make you feel secure—even if there’s no scientific evidence to back it up. Otherwise, you might drive yourself crazy with wondering whether you made the right decision. If I had the money, I might have purchased the full-face respirator and full body gear but ultimately I decided it was too expensive and I wasn’t sure if I’d have the courage to actually wear it(you’d be making a very loud fashion statement)so I went with the N-95′s but when I learned about the lack of evidence for their efficacy against viruses, I decided to focus more on just staying away from people as best I can. After talking to the mold crew, will you wearing a full-face mask and suit for day to day protection?

ssol – at 19:00

BB; thanks for the information. I guess it goes to show us that there is mitigation and then there is mitigation, just depends on how much can be spent. I bet the company that employs those guys has seen the cost of losing a suit to a worker who gets sick on the job and the cost of state-of-the art PPE and went with door number 1. I’ll bet there isn’t a jury in America that wouldn’t find for a guy who got sick and disabled because his employer didn’t want to spend the dough on state-of-the art.

We are not facing that risk at least. Unless the UN gives our kids the right to sue us in International Court:)

As a result of your post, I’ll be buying more N95 masks so I can change them more frequently if I’m out and about.

Thanks for the info.

CAMikeat 19:22

All, I do feel for the HCW’s that try to do the right thing with inadequate equipment. It is my understanding that most hospitals are majorly unprepared for paniflu and will likely not have any where near enough masks that that they can change them after each patient. This reinforces something that I have been thinking about for the last few months and that is to only go to the hospital for critical conditions.

I think it was Tom DVM that estimated about one third of the casualties will be from those that need a hospital but can’t go for a variety of reasons. This strikes close to home for me as my mom had to be admitted this last week with congestive heart failure, kidney disease and bronchitis, all at the same time. There is no way she would have survived during a paniflu epidemic if she had been kept home or if we had taken her to the hospital (if they even would have had room for her).

There are too many things to keep track of and no right answers. I choose to do the best I can in prepping with the knowledge I have gained from the FW. If the S*** hits the fan hard there is not a lot that I can do. I can SIP for awhile then I will have to leave at some point for a resupply run. So be it.

Mike

Bronco Bill – at 19:39

After talking to the mold crew, will you wearing a full-face mask and suit for day to day protection?

Not a chance. First, I don’t have PPE gear. Second, I can’t afford PPE gear. And third, where I’m moving to? With the heat and humidity I personally wouldn’t survive more than about 15 minutes in one. Nope…I’m with the social distancing crowd. I don’t know if I’ll be able to SIP for more than a month or so, so latex gloves, N95 masks, and staying upwind of everybody are what I’m gonna have to do…

ANON-YYZ – at 20:23

Note to self. Buy full PPE gear and move to Winterpeg. Oops, Winnepeg.

knowall – at 21:13

CAMike - at 19:22 - so sorry to hear about your mom, I hope she is doing better. You’re right, a trip to the hospital could be dangerous, if not life-threatening. Perhaps people who need to visit the hospital regularly will consider investing in a PPE suit, they’re expensive, but can be cleaned, disinfected, and reused.

Bronco Bill - at 19:39 - I’m with you and the rest of the SIP/staying upwind crowd.

Anyone else here made the investment in PPE gear? If so, do you plan to wear it on a day-to-day basis or for emergencies only when SIP, such as a trip to the hospital or pharmacy.

Grace RN – at 21:42

No more masks, must buy more handwashing solution….glad you found the mold problem before it found it’s way into someone’s lungs; all that and a hot Ca. highway-egads, some week!

PPE’s I plan on having- N95′s-gloves, tons of soap and paper towels for handwashing; inside/outside house or sickroom shoes.

IMHO, people/loved ones who are sick or dying don’t need to be further distanced by a full-body “armor” suit. Not for me,anyway…..

Bluesfan – at 21:45

BB,

Would you mind my asking.. with what and how exactly did the technicians “treat” the remaining walls?

Bronco Bill – at 21:54

Bluesfan – at 21:45 --- They drilled holes in the adjoining spaces along that wall and sprayed some type of aerosol chemical into the spaces. I didn’t get the name, but they said it’s very much like anti-fouling paint. They pump about a pound of it into each space, and it coats the inside of the sheetrock (and kills whatever mold might be down and out of site). They also drilled a couple of holes into the ceiling next to the wall, and sprayed up there.

I forgot to add, in that region many homes have large fans installed under the house and set on timers. These fans move the air around under the house on hot, humid days, and work to keep the mold levels down under the house and in the lower walls. We found out that the fans under this house hadn’t been working for almost 3 years!

Bluesfan – at 22:11

BB, A close friend of mine just discovered black mold in his house..walls were ripped out, but did not treat with any chemical that I’m aware of, so I thank you for the info and I will pass that along to him. Glad to hear that you caught that nasty problem when you did!

laura in pa – at 22:18

they looked like they had just stepped out of a shower fully clothed

Wonder if this will be on the market here soon:

http://tinyurl.com/rhwlx

Bronco Bill – at 23:47

laura in pa – at 22:18 --- OMG!!! That would go soooo well with my USB coffee pot and my USB electric toothbrush!!!

Bluesfan – at 22:11 --- If the entire section of wall from ceiling to floor was torn out, and the mold wasn’t found encroaching on the wood frames, then your friend should be fine…they found that the mold in my place had gotten to the frame, and that was why they treated the whole wall…

26 July 2006

pfwag – at 00:17

Bronco - sorry to hear about the house but glad you got the insight and mentioned it. In support of your position, from my BF Report nine months ago:

An 80 – 120 nanometer H5N1 virus will zip right through a 300 nanometer N-95 faster than your t-cells can say “let’s roll.”

N95 is a particulant filter. That is OK if H5N1 is clumped together with body fluids but just a few can make it through as well as more when the gunk dries on the outside of the mask.

Using an N95 for H5N1 is like playing Russian Roulette with 3 or 4 bullets loaded - you have a false sense of security but don’t know the odds are stacked against you.

I don’t mind taking the heat on other things (like Tamiflu and CS) but didn’t want to take on N95s.

I haven’t bought one and don’t plan on it. I have other plans.

Houston 6-Pack – at 01:23

Glad I havent spent a fortune on the masks!!!

Melanie – at 05:07

Social distancing is probably going to work better than technology. SIP is really hard work and probably more reliable.

LauraBat 06:26

Sorry that we had to learn from your bad experiences. I guess the good news is you found it before it got much worse. There are some horror sotires about mold, especially in the humid south. After seeing Osterholm talking about masks on Oprah I also thought that masks would only do so much good unless your were properly fitted to go walking in space, and who the he!! can afford that?! On top of the fact that you can’t get repirators for kids. So, we have some, lots of gloves, etc. Just doing the best we can…

jplanner – at 07:11

BB, glad you got your mold problem resolved, thanks for post all, pfwag,

In the hospital, there are different kinds of precautions a patient is put under, corresponding to the kind of PPE the staff needs. The type of respirator/mask required seems (healthcare worker needs to varify) more related to how a disease spreads than to its type of causitive agent (ie virus bacteria). For example, TB, a bacteria, is spread in tiny particles that are small enough to stay suspended in the air for long time. TB patients are under aerosol precations. Aerosol precations are more rigourous than droplet precautions, where droplets can be spread contining the virus or bacteria that only stay in the air for a short while when the patient coughs sneezes talks. Droplets are larger.

Thus, I don’t agree with Bill’s contractor friends, that TPTB are trying to lull us into a false sense of security in suggesting p95. I have read that influenza doesn’t spread by aerosol usually, it spreads mostly via droplets (ie droplet precautions not aerosol precations in the hospital). So even tho the viruses are teeny-tiny, smaller than the pores of N-95, the majority will be held back by N-95 mask and three feet of social distancing. Not quite “Russion Roulette” but not a sure thing.

I don’t know how much more protective N-100 masks are. I think the masks I used in the hospital were N-95. I have found N-100 masks MUCH harder to find, even at Home Depot, etc. I think the PTB say N-95 because it’s more common. But I agree that one should not be lulled into a false sense of security, SIP is best, only going out in emergencies, staying as far away from others as possible, with Best mask possible.

Was healthcare worker, am bit rusty tho, need a nurse to varify…

I say this because people said on this thread “oh I’m glad not to have spent a ton of money on masks”…I don’t think it’s that bad and don’t want newbies to be discouraged in getting hold of any masks they can. As someone said, they are better than nothing. You might need to go out, just get the best masks you can and know nothing is 100% except isolation.

jplanner – at 07:16

so, in summary, I believe from healthcare perspective a N-95 mask will help you not getting infected ALOT, versus NOT having a mask when it comes to being exposed…you Have to go to the Hospital, someone in the waiting room has Pandemic Flu…you want that mask. I get this idea also from extensive reading of old healthcare and mask threads where lots of MD’s and nurses and a respiratory tech posted, believe that was consensus here previously on the wikie.

knowall – at 08:48

Here is an excerpt from the CDC/NIOSH about masks and viruses. They recommend a filter of AT LEAST N-95 and say that higher filters will work too, but don’t necessarily do a better job because smaller particles do NOT penetrate more easily than larger particles, even though it goes against common sense. Links are included (I’m assuming the SARS info will also pertain to BF).

“Particulate respirators are also known as “air-purifying respirators” because they protect by filtering particles out of the air as you breathe. These respirators protect only against particles—not gases or vapors. Since airborne biological agents such as bacteria or viruses are particles, they can be filtered by particulate respirators. Respirators that filter out at least 95% of airborne particles during “worse case” testing using a “most-penetrating” sized particle are given a 95 rating. Those that filter out at least 99% receive a “99” rating. And those that filter at least 99.97% (essentially 100%) receive a “100” rating. Respirators in this family are rated as N, R, or P for protection against oils. This rating is important in industry because some industrial oils can degrade the filter performance so it doesn’t filter properly.* Respirators are rated “N,” if they are not resistant to oil, “R” if somewhat resistant to oil, and “P” if strongly resistant (oil proof).”

“Why are N-95 respirators most often recommended for SARS?

The CDC Guidelines for Isolation Precautions in Hospitals recommends that health care workers protect themselves from any disease spread through the air (airborne transmission) by wearing a respirator at least as protective as a fit-tested N-95 respirator. These guidelines were written before SARS was discovered, but they have been used to protect against other airborne diseases such as tuberculosis.

Can health care workers use respirators other than N-95 to protect against SARS?

Yes, workers can wear any of the types of particulate respirators for protection against SARS—if they are NIOSH-approved and if they have been properly fit-tested and maintained. All of the NIOSH-approved particulate respirators protect workers against SARS as effectively as the N-95 respirators. “ http://tinyurl.com/kfjvb (www.cdc.gov/niosh/npptl/topics/respirators/factsheets/respsars.html)

“How effective are the Part 84 filter respirators against particles smaller than 0.3 micrometer in diameter?

The 0.3-micrometer diameter used in the certification testing is approximately the most penetrating particle size for particulate filters. Although it seems contrary to expectation, smaller particles do not penetrate as readily as 0.3-micrometer particles. Therefore, these respirators will filter all other particle sizes at least as well as the certified efficiency level.” http://www.cdc.gov/NIOSH/appndxe.html

Jewel – at 09:56

I still think that if, heaven forbid, a member of any one of our families gets sick with BF, the caretaker is going to be exposed to this virus, mask or not. (Picture millions of viruses shed with coughing and sneezing.) And I think it is cruel and unusual punishment for the sick person to be expected to wear a mask to protect the caretaker, and would it be much of a protection anyway?

Annoyed Max- Not mad yet – at 10:00

My two cents, I have purchased several p-100 filters and the accompanying masks if I have to venture out during SIP. I wear this mask most days I work in the organic chem lab. First because most of the drugs I deal with are unknown and you dont want to find out its not good for you by inhaling some and second my filter has a lower level organic vapor cartridge attached to it. We use acetone all day long to clean glassware and I cant stand the smell but this little filter has been trucking for well over a year and it works great. Now I replace the external p-100 regularly and have never had any problems with it restricting my breathing or anything. My complaint and I hope none of you get to experience this is that after you wear it for several hours or even mins depending on the temp, water vapor will begin to build up in the mask to unbelievable levels. Its quite annoying and I dont relish the idea of having to wear a mask that I couldn’t take off for undetermined periods. I order most of my masks direct from 3M. There are several other sources online and I have yet to not be able to find them when needed. There are less people buying them than you would think. I completely agree that a battery pack belt mounted respirator is the way to go as it would be more comfortable and I believe you can get better filtration with a HEPA filter but dont quote me on that. The problem with that is the batteries dont last long at all I think its 8 hours per $120 battery. Plus for those of you w/o solar or some other way to recharge these batteries then what are you going to do? Not to mention…ok I just looked it up; the first catalog I opened a belt mounted deal would cost upwards of $700 for bare bones model. But whats your life worth?

MAV in Colorado – at 10:03

sorry about the surprise with the new house BB About the PPE: N99/P100 masks have been used to prevent viral infection in HCW’s for a long time and seem to be effective if used correctly.

knowall – at 10:14

Jewel – at 09:56 - You are correct that a caregiver would be exposed to the virus, mask or no and that a mask might not offer much protection to a caregiver. My understanding from reading the NIOSH/CDC website (see links in my previous post) is that that masks are considered a *minimum* level of protection and should not be used alone without taking other precautions, such as the standard hospital hygiene protocols of gloves, handwashing, etc.

I’m not in the health care field, but I noticed someone else here made a comment about the psychological effects of wearing a mask (Grace RN – at 21:42). If I were the patient, I don’t think I would mind wearing a mask, at least, I don’t think I would interpret it as cruel and unusual punishment. Am I missing something here?

Also, I notice that the decision to wear a mask depends a lot on who will be wearing the mask and under what conditions, for example, if you are a caregiver your decision to wear a mask will depend on different criteria than someone who is SIP and needs to make an emergency trip to the store, pharmacy, hospital, etc.

knowall – at 10:20

Annoyed Max- Not mad yet – at 10:00

Thanks for that info. Did you purchase the full-face mask with filter cartridges for venturing out when SIP, or are your masks the disposable kind?

Jewel – at 10:29

knowall-

I guess I was thinking that if I was the sick party I think a mask would make me feel very claustrophobic, expecially if I was having trouble breathing. I would hope though that I would be aware of trying to protect my caregiver (assuming I wasn’t delirious) by coughing/sneezing into tissues and disposing of them properly.

I totally agree with you that wearing masks when having to go out in public for any reason would be a prudent thing to do, especially when paired with social distancing.

knowall – at 10:41

Jewel – at 10:29

Oh, I see. I’d probably feel the same way about wearing a mask if I were sick and not delirious, too. Also, I just realized that I haven’t read any of the posts on caring for flu patients and I don’t even know if its recommended that BOTH patient AND caregiver wear masks . . . do you know if that’s the protocol? Maybe only the caregiver is supposed to wear a mask if its an at-home situation. So much to learn . . .

Annoyed Max- Not mad yet – at 11:10

The masks I have I plan to wear for the first few days as everyone comes together in the “bunker” and until we are reasonably sure no one is infected by taking every ones temperature. After that I do not plan to live in my mask. Since everyone seems to be in agreement about flu only being transmitted through droplets, I figured as long as I stay in my house I will be “safe”. I would wear the mask if I had to venture out for some unforeseen reason or when I though it was “over” and went out to see for myself or had to confront an unwelcomed visitor.

     As far as a patient wearing a mask.  The kind I have thats rubber with changeable filters has a simple blowout.  The exhaust breath is not filtered at all.  You would do much better to have the sick wear one of the disposable N95 masks that would filter both directions.  
     Do not rely on your mask to give 100% protection as it will not.  Nothing is 100% thats just the way it is.  Its a modicum of protection, its better than some things and a lot better than nothing.
knowall – at 12:06

Annoyed Max- Not mad yet – at 11:10

Your plan sounds very well-thought-out and logical. It also seems logical that if a patient and caregiver both wear disposable N-95 (or N-100) masks, it would reduce the caregiver’s exposure more than if only the caregiver were wearing a mask.

After reading this thread, I’ve changed my mind about the importance of wearing masks: even though the disposable N-95 and N-100′s may not guarantee much protection its better than nothing. There may be a lack of research evidence proving their efficacy, but they are relatively inexpensive for the extra security IMO. The full-face respirators with cartridges (and a suit) offer the most protection, if you can afford them and dare to wear them in public.

I’m going to stick with the disposable kind because, assuming that we will be taking precautions before most other people, I don’t think I’d have the courage to wear a full-face mask in public, especially in the beginning stages of the pandemic, for fear of the reaction it would cause. However, I also realize that the beginning stages might be the most important time to wear a full-face mask if you have one.

Bronco Bill – at 12:24

I do have to say one thing, and I saw this on another board. If, at the beginning of any pandemic, you were out and about and wearing any type of mask…you would NOT have to worry about social distancing. Most people would see you and stay well clear of your path!! ;-)

Annoyed Max- Not mad yet – at 13:16

I agree with Bill, when the people I work with who dont work in the lab see me wearing a filter mask they cant seem to get away fast enough. I feel like some brightly colored poisonous animal. Those fluorescent pink filters just seem to scream extreme danger stay away!

knowall – at 15:05

Bronco Bill – at 12:24 and Annoyed Max- Not mad yet – at 13:16

LOL, excellent point. I never considered that benefit of mask-wearing, suddenly I’m not concerned about public reaction anymore . . .I almost want to start wearing one now (I work in NYC). I think we can safely say that the “keep-away factor” should increase the efficiency of any filter mask at least 99 percent!

MAV in Colorado – at 15:34

I wouldn’t be so quick to write the masks off folks. The Toronto SARS experience showed PPE (masks etc) did help slow spread when used early in the epidemic. HCW’s (myself included) are constantly exposed to many virii. Hepatitis, HIV, HPV, HTLV etc, etc are very common and when any invasive treatments are performed (from blood draws to major surgery), HCW’s are exposed. The reason HCW’s are able to stay healthy is because of PPE, including the use of simple masks IMO. Spending hours hovering over the open body of a surgical patient with blood and tissues being constantly aerosolized would surely produce significant disease in HCW’s if standardized universal precautions were not followed.

If dealing with suspected or confirmed panflu patients (ie. sick), I will be definitely be using a cartridge type mask for sure. This is a lethal little bugger at this point. Think of it like a lethal gas. Concentration (ie. cooped up in a sick room etc) and duration of exposure are critical.

knowall – at 16:25

MAV in Colorado – at 15:34

Thanks for your feedback. I just finished reading some info on the CDC website about SARS and the use of masks. It seems as though there was some suspicion among researchers that SARS was airborne in addition to being carried by droplets, but there was a lack of enough evidence to prove it. http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/SARS/respirators.htm Since so little is known about H5N1, this is another argument for why it might be wise to invest in a cartridge-style mask in addition to the disposable kind, if one can afford it.

Hillbilly Bill – at 16:34

If my employer designates me as “essential personnel” and I am required to come in to work, I plan to be masked and gloved and carry a spray bottle of bleach solution. Since my primary job is related to the recruitment of new students, i figure they will decide to let me take leve time pretty quickly.

27 August 2006

Beachball – at 18:21

Great discussion and comments. I noticed that no one has mentioned much, if anything, about eye protection. Any thoughts or comments on eye exposure or protection? Is there much vulnerability through the eyes?

Bronco Bill – at 18:33

Beachball – at 18:21 --- We’ve had a couple of discussions on other threads about eye protection. Although I’m not a doctor, it’s my opinion that a virus could infect a person through their eyes, but other’s disagree. It’s one of those things that you have to decide on yourself, I guess…

05 September 2006

bump – at 01:10

bump - I missed this thread when it was first posted. Bumping in case anyone else did, too.

07 November 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:57

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.WhatILearnedOnMySummerVacation
Page last modified on November 07, 2006, at 08:57 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / News Reports Sept 3

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: News Reports Sept 3

03 September 2006

Bronco Bill – at 02:21

September 3 News Reports here

Bronco Bill – at 02:22
blackbird – at 04:00

where? :-)

blackbird – at 04:09

Posted once, then thought twice. Here’s the link to 9/2 news:

http://tinyurl.com/hpzvx

Commonground – at 06:26

News http://tinyurl.com/nt8fg

Joint apparatus carried out the raid in the Sibolga Port, North Sumatra, post the discovery of the case of bird flu in this area. The inspection was carried out to all the ferry passenger who just came from Nias. In this inspection the official found a cardboard box containing the Bangkok chicken.

After being checked by the official of animal quarantine, the official did not find signs tertular the virus H5N1, so as to be returned to his owner. In the meantime, in the Badiri Subdistrict, Tapanuli Middle, the official visited the citizen’s houses. In this area some time before was found by the case of dozens of chickens that died suddenly and were stated positive terjangit the bird flu virus. Originally, the raid was meant unruk destroyed the livestock. However, the citizen claimed to be most of their livestock has died for the last two days. “Already did not have ternah again,” said Sahria Boru Tarihoan, one of the citizens there. The insignificance of the citizen’s knowledge of the matter of bird flu of making them bury just like that poultries that did not die and report to the official

Commonground – at 09:50

News http://tinyurl.com/ohjhe

Mallard ducks in Pennsylvania have tested positive for a low-pathogenic strain of the H5N1 bird flu virus, the U.S. Agriculture and Interior departments said on Saturday, adding to cases detected recently in Maryland and Michigan. A strain of the H5N1 avian influenza virus was found in wild ducks sampled Aug. 28 in Crawford County in northwestern Pennsylvania. “Testing has ruled out the possibility of this being the highly pathogenic H5N1 strain that has spread through birds in Asia, Europe and Africa,” USDA and Interior said in a statement. “Test results thus far indicate this is low pathogenic avian influenza, which poses no risk to human health.” The government said it was conducting additional tests to determine, in part, if the ducks had H5N1 or two separate strains with one virus contributing H5 and the other N1. A second round of tests could take five to 10 more days to confirm whether it was the low-pathogenic H5N1 bird flu. The virus also has been found during the last month in Michigan and on Friday in Maryland. The Maryland mallards did not appear sick so the samples, collected on Aug. 2 as part of a research project, were not given high priority when sent to USDA labs for testing. The U.S. departments of Agriculture and Interior are working with states to collect between 75,000 and 100,000 wild bird samples in addition to more than 50,000 environmental tests throughout the United States. A low-pathogenic strain, which produces less disease and mortality in birds than does a high-pathogenic version, poses no threat to humans. It is common for mild and low pathogenic strains of bird flu to appear in the United States and other countries. The latest H5N1 bird flu strain in Asia, Europe and Africa is known to have killed at least 141 people and forced hundreds of millions of birds to be destroyed.

InKyat 10:03

COMMENT (QUESTION)

This may be the dumb question of the day, but here goes. Could exposure to a low-path H5N1 offer birds (or people?) a certain resistance to high-path H5N1? Anybody have an informed opinion?

Monotreme – at 10:29

Bird flu cases result of spell? Death says no

ANDI MERIAH, Indonesia — Dowes Ginting, the most wanted man on Sumatra island, lay dying. He had abandoned the hospital where he had seen his relatives succumb one after another, and he had fled deep into the mountains, trying to outrun the black magic he feared had marked him next. For four nights, witnesses recalled, a witch doctor hovered over him in a small clapboard home, resisting the evil spell.

Mr. Ginting had watched disease burn through his family over the previous two weeks, killing six and sickening two others, including himself. International health experts grew increasingly concerned when laboratory tests confirmed they were sickened by bird flu, the largest cluster of the disease ever recorded. But the wiry 32-year-old feared medical treatment more than he did the flu. And so he ran.

In the end, the outbreak in May did not presage the start of a worldwide epidemic. But the enormous difficulties that Indonesian and international disease specialists confronted in investigating the outbreak and protecting against its spread raised fundamental questions about whether bird flu could be contained if it mutated into a form more easily spread among people.

“If this were a strain with sustainable transmission from human to human, I can’t imagine how many people would have died, how many lives would have been lost,” said Surya Dharma, chief of communicable disease control in North Sumatra province.

http://tinyurl.com/m5zvf

Grace RN – at 10:42

From Promed:

“Since June 2006, a pig disease characterized by rising body temperature, redness of the skin, and rapid breathing has occurred in portions of Anhui, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, Hunan, Hubei, Jiangsu, and other provinces[of China]”

link:http://tinyurl.com/gm4yg

Calling Dr Tom-what types of illness in pigs present like this and…..could these be symptoms of porcine H5N1 infection??

Tom DVM – at 10:55

Hi Grace. That description would cover just about every infection that pigs get. Pigs can’t sweat to regulate their body temperatures so that they will pant and they are also prone to ‘blushing’ as well due to their skin…that is in part why they lay in the mud…otherwise they are usually very clean animals.

One disease does come to mind…Erysipelas…another zoonosis. It is probably the most common.

Tom DVM – at 10:59

Inky. You do not want to intentionally circulate any virus through birds or humans because on one hand you may produce a high path virus and on the other you might produce a pandemic virus…

…but it is good to think the way you do…because in the end every concievable angle will be examined and nothing will be missed.

Thanks!!

Petticoat Junction – at 10:59

Commonground – at 09:50 re: new mallards in PA testing postive

Interesting. The version of this article that appeared in our newspaper today has variations; I’m looking for the wire service link now (our paper has a column that is an assortment of wire service reports but doesn’t list which service wrote which article).

It left out the part about the sample having been taken Aug 2; makes it sound like a recent expansion of the virus (Aug 28) rather than one that happened at least a month ago (and logically would have spread further by now) but was just discovered.

Our article also includes a line about the low-grade strain having been found many times in the US w/o posing a threat, “…but officials expect the deadlier strain to reach the continent this year.” I wonder which officials?

It also quotes “the Agriculture Dept” (no names given) as saying “It is possible that these birds were not infected with an H5N1 strain, but instead with two separate avian influenza viruses, one containing H5 and the other containing N1.”

Tom DVM – at 11:00

Inky. It is not a dumb question? I’m not sure there are any dumb questions. Where dumb comes in is if you don’t ask sufficient questions.

MaMaat 11:02

GraceRN, a good sit to find out about current news and disease outbreaks in pigs in tropical areas of the world is … http://pigtrop.cirad.fr/en/index.php (home page)

diease info index… http://pigtrop.cirad.fr/en/scientific/sante_diseases_technical_cards.htm

just in case Tom DVM is ever on vacation:-)

bird-dog – at 11:06

COMMENT

Monotreme – at 10:29 Thank you for that story. It is such a clear reminder to me of how we are all the same, in this world. A very honest account.

Petticoat Junction – at 11:07

New case in Egypt….

39 minutes ago

CAIRO (AFP) - The H5N1 strain of bird flu has been reported in a domestic poultry farm in southern Egypt, the first time the highly pathogenic virus was detected in the country in months.

The new case was reported in the village of Al-Rakakna, in the Sohag province, some 490 kilometres (305 miles) south of Cairo, a statement from the agriculture ministry said Sunday.

All poultry on the farm was slaughtered and tests were under way to check that none of the people who had been in contact with the infected animals were contaminated.

The last human case of H5N1 reported in Egypt dates back to May……

New Egyptian case

Petticoat Junction – at 11:10

Sorry, should have made that clearer in the heading that it’s a new *poultry* case, not human.

Petticoat Junction – at 11:12

re - 10:59

I found the link to the article that was in our local paper, which mentions the unnamed official expectation of high-path hitting the US this year and also the possible combination of two other forms….

Here

Commonground – at 11:43

Fears of ‘extreme’ TB strain

New drug-resistant infection is ‘nightmare’ say health experts

Robin McKie, science editor Sunday September 3, 2006 News http://tinyurl.com/s7aht - excerpt:

The Observer

Health experts are to hold an emergency meeting in Johannesburg this week, following the discovery of a deadly new strain of tuberculosis. The strain - known as extreme drug-resistant TB - has horrified World Health Organisation doctors. In one outbreak in South Africa, 52 of 53 patients died within weeks of becoming infected.

‘This new strain leaves us facing a nightmare,’ said Paul Nunn, coordinator of the WHO’s drug-resistance unit. ‘It is resistant to nearly every drug in our arsenal. We are now on the threshold of the appearance of a strain of TB that is resistant to every medicine known to science.’

Commonground – at 11:52

Comment:

Regarding my post at 11:43, it makes me wonder. The experts have been referring to “other diseases” they are watching. Always telling us H5N1 is not their only concern. Could they have been referring to this new drug resistant tuberculosis?

banshee – at 12:37

Red Cross to feed city’s flu from Tallahassee.com (Florida)

…In the event of a worldwide flu outbreak, families could be cooped up in their homes for weeks, and food could disappear from grocery store shelves. But the Capital Area Chapter of the American Red Cross is taking steps to make sure families in the Big Bend will have food, even if they are quarantined. The agency is looking for restaurants, caterers and others to submit proposals on how much food they could supply in a pandemic and how much they would charge…Floyd also said people should plan now for a possible pandemic, which means having four to six weeks worth of water and nonperishable food. He described pandemic planning as “hurricane planning on steroids…”

http://tinyurl.com/juh2n

Commonground – at 14:01

News
written by editorial staff on Saturday, on September 02 2006: (excerpt)

for the last two months in 2006 the price of the sweet Siammadu citrus fruit commodity from the Karo Regency the plateau of the Line’s Hill, plummeted the alias fell the price.
The decline in the price of the citrus fruit for the last two month was the extraordinary incident.
The writer felt sad, with the price fall at this time because only was discussed in the level of the cafe, did not spread took the form of the seminar in hotels, rarely was contained in the newspaper. Was different to rumours of busy bird flu was discussed in the print media. This article was made for the aim of depicting the phenomenon that was experienced by the farmer, try to give the fall way out of the price of the citrus fruit.
http://tinyurl.com/nwt43

asker – at 14:03

is anyone worried about the H5N1 detected in Pennsylvania? it isn’t clear whether it is H5N1 or not yet?

anonymous – at 14:09

It IS H5N1. It’s a common low-path North American strain that’s been circulating in North America, in wild migratory birds, and in the migratory flyways for 20 years.

Commonground – at 15:07

Recombinomics Commentary (excerpt):
Dual H5N1 Bird Flu Infections in North America Recombinomics Commentary September 3, 2006

It is possible that these birds were not infected with an H5N1 strain, but instead with two separate avian influenza viruses, one containing H5 and the other containing N1. The confirmatory testing underway at USDA’s National Veterinary Services Laboratories will clarify whether one or more strains of the virus are present, the specific subtype, as well as confirm the pathogenicity.

The above comments raise the possibility of dual or multiple infections in the H5N1 positive mallards, which is a distinct possibility….

-snip-
The sudden increase in H5N1 in the United States is cause for concern. Since the low path is the same serotype as the high path in migratory birds, mixtures will be more difficult to detect. The H5 from the dead goose on Prince Edward Island was in low abundance which could be obscured by high levels of low path H5N1. Moreover, low path H5N1 can acquire mammalian sequences, as was seen in the H5N2 from British Columbia collected last year. Low path H5 and easily recombine with high path H5 because of extensive regions of identity in the H5 gene, as well as the other 7 gene segments.

Although the 2006 surveillance plan for Canada calls for increasing the numer of tested birds to over 12,000, the program has only released one sequence from the 208 postives birds from 2005. Moreover, there have been no reports from 2006, even though testing from the northern shores of Lake Erie would almost certainly detect H5N1 last month. Thus far the H5N1 positives in the United States are in the Atlantic Americas flyway, which links to the East Atlantic flyway, which coverns western Europe and Africa as well as Siberia, the source of many recent Qinghai H5N1 infections..

Release of the H5 low path sequences may offer clues as to why H5N1 has become the dominant H5 sequence detected In the United States and Canada in 2006.

Isolates by OSU which are being sequenced by TIGR and soon to be public at GenBank
http://tinyurl.com/ozg4t

InKyat 15:25

Re Tom DVM at 11:00 - Thanks. It seems the alternative to asking dumb questions is remaining ignorant, so I’ve asked quite a few in my lifetime ;→. Is it the case that strains of endemic low-path H5N1 simply mutated in Southeast Asia to become the high-path H5N1 we are now worried about? I had the impression that H5N1 was something new altogether, so word of a “low path” virus of the same name that’s been around for years requires that I refine my understanding.

Every case is a test tube and H5N1 may as well be a mad scientist feverishly at work, so I wasn’t really thinking that intentional exposure would be a good idea, just wondering if these viruses are similar enough that the low-path strain would produce an immune response to any degree whatsoever.

Somehow I don’t think this is the case. There must have been low-path strains of H5N1 in Indonesia, Thailand, China and Vietnam if there have been cases in Maryland, Pennsylvania, and who knows where else, going back 20 years or more, before the high-path strain emerged. High-path H5N1 is high-path precisely because it trumps resistance. Have I answered my own question?

Tom DVM – at 15:41

Inky. I agree with you that an infection with a low path strain would provide complete resistance against high path H5N1

…and our knowlege of influenza in general is so archaic and rudimentary at the moment that we just don’t know if it would provide partial immunity…

…and the exact same argument can be made about vaccine strains…we just don’t know for sure whether they would provide full or partial immunity.

Here is another interesting question…with low pathogenic H5N1 endemic to many parts of the world including it seems anywhere in North America any time they do background testing…Why did it develop in China?

anonymous – at 15:43

Information from U.S. Department of Interior and Rueters article, not generic Associated Press, Yahoo, etc.

Summary

Samples taken August 2, wild ducks, Maryland - http://tinyurl.com/qskls

Queen Anne’s County, Maryland, Ohio State University. National Veterinary Services Laboratories (NVSL, Ames, Iowa) received samples August 24. Tests confirm H5N1 avian influenza subtype August 31. Additional testing will confirm the pathogenicity of the virus. These results are expected within two weeks.

Samples taken August 8, swans, Michigan - http://tinyurl.com/f3dsx Mouillee state game area, Lake Erie, Monroe County, Michigan.

Samples taken August 28, wild ducks, Pennsylvania - http://tinyurl.com/kqkru Crawford County, northwestern Pennsylvania.

Additional info briefing

Maryland - “Testing has ruled out the possibility of this being the highly pathogenic H5N1 strain that has spread through birds in Asia, Europe and Africa. Test results thus far indicate this is low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI), which poses no threat to human health. [snip] The fecal samples came from mallards that showed no signs of sickness, which also suggests that this is LPAI. [snip] Because of the nature of the research project and because there was no sign of illness in the birds, the samples were not prioritized for testing. [snip] …genetic analysis of the virus was completed, which suggests that this virus is similar to low pathogenic strains that have been found previously in North America. It should be noted that wild birds are known to harbor many influenza viruses, and the finding of these viruses during routine testing is not unusual. [snip] There is no known health risk to hunters or hunting dogs from contact with low pathogenic forms of avian influenza virus.”

Pennsylvania - WASHINGTON (Reuters). “Mallard ducks in Pennsylvania have tested positive for a low-pathogenic strain of the H5N1 bird flu virus, the U.S. Agriculture and Interior departments said on Saturday, adding to cases detected recently in Maryland and Michigan. [snip] Test results thus far indicate this is low pathogenic avian influenza, which poses no risk to human health. [snip] A second round of tests could take five to 10 more days to confirm whether it was the low-pathogenic H5N1 bird flu. [snip] The virus also has been found during the last month in Michigan and on Friday in Maryland. The Maryland mallards did not appear sick so the samples…were not given high priority when sent to USDA labs for testing. A low-pathogenic strain, which produces less disease and mortality in birds than does a high-pathogenic version, poses no threat to humans. It is common for mild and low pathogenic strains of bird flu to appear in the United States and other countries.”

Commonground – at 16:22

anonymous - at 15:43:

“The Maryland mallards did not appear sick so the samples…were not given high priority when sent to USDA labs for testing.” It is my understanding that ducks appear asymptomatic with H5N1. That they can harbour the disease and pass it on without getting sick themselves. Anyone out there who can help me understand this correctly?

Tom DVM – at 16:26

Hi Commonground. That is my understanding as well but…like all other things…there are probably exceptions to the rule.

Commonground – at 17:03

Tom DVM - at 16:26, I was going to say something about exceptions, but this is the news thread, after all. :-)

Klatu – at 19:14

anonymous – at 14:09 wrote” “It IS H5N1. It’s a common low-path North American strain that’s been circulating in North America, in wild migratory birds, and in the migratory flyways for 20 years.”

InKy – at 15:25 wrote”

“Re Tom DVM at 11:00 - Thanks. It seems the alternative to asking dumb questions is remaining ignorant, so I’ve asked quite a few in my lifetime ;?. Is it the case that strains of endemic low-path H5N1 simply mutated in Southeast Asia to become the high-path H5N1 we are now worried about? I had the impression that H5N1 was something new altogether, so word of a “low path” virus of the same name that’s been around for years requires that I refine my understanding.”


Effective in 2006, all confirmed (Low-Pathogen, Low-Risk) LPAI H5 and H7 AI subtypes must be reported to the OIE because of their potential to mutate into highly pathogenic strains.Therefore, USDA now tracks these detections in wild birds, backyard flocks, commercial flocks and live bird markets. (excerpt)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H5N1#Low_pathogenic_H5N1

Klatu – at 19:27

Wednesday, July 27, 2005

“Albert Osterhaus, of the Erasmus Medical Center in Rotterdam, is one of the world’s top virologists.”said:

H5N1 remains the most-watched strain in Asia and it remains extremely deadly to the people who contract it.

But Osterhaus notes that other strains of bird flu have also entered the human population and there is no reason why H5N2 — the strain now active in Siberia — could not do the same. (excerpt )

http://tinyurl.com/nkpmy

Tom DVM – at 20:09

“We have now seen, since ‘97, that there are these viruses that can cross the species barrier, meaning they can also get into humans and they can cause disease and even death in humans. So, we know now that for instance the H7N7 in the Netherlands here caused one fatal case in humans,” Osterhaus said. “We know now that the H5N1 virus in southeast Asia has caused more than 100 cases in humans, of whom more than 50 have died in the meantime. And now we see in Russia that another virus, another combination — the H5N2 — is causing problems there. And so far, we have not seen that these H5N2 viruses can cause disease in humans but I think it’s far too early to say that this could not happen.”

This is a quote from Dr. Osterhaus from Katu’s post from above.

His statement describes a fact that some may not be aware of…previous to 1997 there were no recorded cases of bird flu in humans…and since 1997 we have had human bird flu cases in H5N1 and several H7 subtypes and strains.

I think to now where this virus is going, we have to ask ourselves why…why these viruses jumped the species barrier and why other viruses and bacteria have jumped the species barrier…and why there has been a rapid acceleration of virulence in parasites, viruses and bacteria…all through mutation.

We may have been lead to believe that a pandemic is going to happen only through random chance…but if there are accelerators and multipliers unknown to us…in effect pushing the mutation, adaption, evolution pathways then it may be closer than the experts may think.

Since this paper was published a year ago, Dr. Taunburgher released his teams information confirming that H1N1 was a pure avian virus which would in effect make it the first bird flu to jump the species barrier almost a hundred years ago now.

I guess the bottom line is that there may be many pressures and pressors on the environment of pathogens that we cannot comprehend or visualize.

anonymous – at 20:34

Klatu – at 19:14, all confirmed (Low-Pathogen, Low-Risk) LPAI H5 and H7 AI subtypes must be reported to the OIE…

Except for the U.S. We don’t have to report anything.

anonymous – at 20:38

This is the news thread. We’re not supposed to discuss stuff here and anytime now, we’re going to be slapped. People have been blatantly noncompliant with the new rules for posting news.

I think this is worth a discussion thread. It’s not going away, this will continue to develop and people will want to discuss.

anon_22 – at 20:54

InKy ¨C at 15:25 “Re Tom DVM at 11:00 - Thanks. It seems the alternative to asking dumb questions is remaining ignorant, so I¡¯ve asked quite a few in my lifetime ;¡ú. Is it the case that strains of endemic low-path H5N1 simply mutated in Southeast Asia to become the high-path H5N1 we are now worried about? I had the impression that H5N1 was something new altogether, so word of a ¡°low path¡± virus of the same name that¡¯s been around for years requires that I refine my understanding.

You probably know this already but just in case and for lurkers who don’t :-)

The difference between LP and HP is in the presence of a unique configuration of the HA protein (chain of basic amino acids at the cleavage site where the protein splits into 2 before viral replication can occur) that, for unknown reasons, the virus acquires when infecting domestic chickens, causes a severe systemic disease resulting in close to 100% death. The origin of the HP H5N1 in Asia is thought to be from reassortment with possibly H9N2 or other unknown avian subtypes, but the acquisition of that cleavage site is a characteristic of only H5 and H7 subtypes. Since 1997, different strains of HP H5N1 have arisen from the same ‘parent’ strain in Guangdong in southern China. We don’t know exactly why but it seems that this is something that happens uniquely in that part of the world, and is still continuing.

Every case is a test tube and H5N1 may as well be a mad scientist feverishly at work, so I wasn¡¯t really thinking that intentional exposure would be a good idea, just wondering if these viruses are similar enough that the low-path strain would produce an immune response to any degree whatsoever.

Well, I don’t think we know the answer to that, except maybe to say that since LP H5N1 does not infect humans, you can’t really deliberately acquire immunity that way. Also, when they try to develop vaccines, they found that the H5N1 virus, for unknown reasons, is not very immunogenic, and there is very little cross-immunity between different clades, such that the WHO has had to provide different virus seed samples for vaccine manufacturers. This probably tells us that being infected with any one clade of HP H5N1 does not necessarily produce immunity anyway, let alone LP H5N1.

Somehow I don¡¯t think this is the case. There must have been low-path strains of H5N1 in Indonesia, Thailand, China and Vietnam if there have been cases in Maryland, Pennsylvania, and who knows where else, going back 20 years or more, before the high-path strain emerged. High-path H5N1 is high-path precisely because it trumps resistance. Have I answered my own question?

Yes, I think you have. :-)

anon_22 – at 20:57

anonymous – at 20:38

Yes, of course you are right. We can move the discussion to the Evolution Of Influenza A Viruses thread if you want. :-)

Klatu – at 22:16

08:20, September 04, 2006

Egypt reports new bird flu case among fowl

“The Egyptian Agriculture Ministry on Sunday confirmed a new case of H5N1 bird flu among fowl in Sohag Governorate, some 400 km south of Cairo, the official MENA news agency reported.

The ministry said in a statement that a sample taken from birds in various villages and farms in Sohag was tested positive for the deadly avian virus. This has been the first case of bird flu among fowl since July 5 when Egypt reported the last case after the outbreak of the epidemic on Feb. 17.

Necessary measures have been taken to cull birds in surrounding areas, according to the statement.

The ministry has also taken samples from some 20 people who were in close contact with infected birds, it said, adding all samples taken within the past period from farms or chicken pens were tested negative for the virus.

Egypt found the first bird flu case in dead poultry on Feb. 17, and the virus then spread to 20 governorates of the country’s 26 in total.” (excerpt)

http://english.people.com.cn/200609/04/eng20060904_299334.html

Tom DVM – at 22:32

anon 22. 20:52. You just did it again…so what I would suggest you do is convince your brain that you are responding in a post…

…and write a book…

…I want to help with three chapters…the one’s on the World Health Organization and my friend Dick Thompson in particular, the chapter on vaccines and the chapter on antivirals…

…you are getting really good at concise explanations.

And before you right the book, I would like you to explain the 22 on your name…is it like catch 22 or something else? /:0)

gharris – at 23:56

http://tinyurl.com/z58q2

BBC reports:

Avian flu research ‘could be cut’

Vital research into avian flu, environmental pollution and food safety could be reduced to save money, government scientists have claimed.

The Department of Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) has to save £200m partly due to mistakes at the Rural Payments Agency, said Farming Today. Defra has to save the money in the next six months and government scientists believe they could be the target for cuts.

Prospect told Farming Today public health could be affected if research was reduced.

Defra said until the budget was finalised, it would be premature to speculate on its potential effects.

04 September 2006

dbg – at 00:08

4.400 Oseltamivir was spread in 22 community health centres

MUSIRAWAS [South Sumatra]– Not Yet the discovery suspect or the sign of bird flu in Musi Rawas, did not make the Health Service of the Mura Regional Government relaxing. To anticipate the existence suspect bird flu, his side since a long time ago carried out prevention efforts. Moreover to tighten room to move of this deadly illness of the plague emergence, not only the socialisation was carried out by Dinkes Regional Government Mura, the distribution of Tamiflu medicine was then carried out. The head Dinkes Mura drg Maimunah Ms MM yesterday explained, totalling 4.400 Tamiflu was spread in 17 subdistricts in the Mura regency territory. So as many as 22 community health centres in Mura got Tamiflu medicine supplies as anticipation if having the citizen who was expected suffered suspect bird flu.

More at: http://tinyurl.com/hf48f

anon_22 – at 00:27

Tom DVM – at 22:32 “anon 22. 20:52. You just did it again…so what I would suggest you do is convince your brain that you are responding in a post…’‘

…and write a book…

Well, then I will need 84 hour days instead of the current 38. :-)

…I want to help with three chapters…the one’s on the World Health Organization and my friend Dick Thompson in particular, the chapter on vaccines and the chapter on antivirals…

Oh, sure. I’ll let you do that. LOL

…you are getting really good at concise explanations.

Thanks. You won’t believe it but I’m partially dyslexic, it comes and goes. I’ve just now stayed up (this is 5am) all night trying to write a letter explaining H5N1 and getting really messed up about it/ I should go to bed.

And before you right the book, I would like you to explain the 22 on your name…is it like catch 22 or something else? /:0)

Well, you won’t believe this! I was only going to make ONE comment then I’ll go back to lurking, so I thought I’ll just pick anything. You know, whatever was handy. I guess the no 2 key just caught my eye or something.

LOL

Bump – at 00:44
Klatu – at 01:14

dbg – at 00:08 wrote:

4.400 Oseltamivir was spread in 22 community health centres


Good Work dbg!

AnnieBat 02:28

I am just about to do the news summary then open a new thread so you might like to hold your post for 20–30 minutes

Cheers

07 November 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:53

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Page last modified on November 07, 2006, at 08:53 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Good Ideas

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Good Ideas

03 September 2006

Northstar – at 19:33

Occasionally I run across a news article where I say, “Dang! That’s a good idea!” In communities across the country, civic leaders, health care workers and plain good folks are coming up with constructive, creative ways to handle the chaos a panflu outbreak might cause. Since those articles usually just get buried and lost in the news thread, I thought they deserved their own thread. Banshee posted a great one today:

banshee – at 12:37

Red Cross to feed city’s flu from Tallahassee.com (Florida)

…In the event of a worldwide flu outbreak, families could be cooped up in their homes for weeks, and food could disappear from grocery store shelves. But the Capital Area Chapter of the American Red Cross is taking steps to make sure families in the Big Bend will have food, even if they are quarantined. The agency is looking for restaurants, caterers and others to submit proposals on how much food they could supply in a pandemic and how much they would charge…Floyd also said people should plan now for a possible pandemic, which means having four to six weeks worth of water and nonperishable food. He described pandemic planning as “hurricane planning on steroids…”

http://tinyurl.com/juh2n ____________________________

Having a bundle of these articles in hand to reference might help community leaders see what others are doing, and get them on the stick for their own community.

Average Concerned Mom – at 20:56

Excellent idea, Northstar!

One little article I read about 3 weeks ago was posted by — you, I think; in the August 10th news thread — about a town outside of Boston setting up a volunteer neighborhood network. (I made a mental note that the two leaders of the group were MDs)

http://tinyurl.com/gff3z

(excerpt)

Wayland’s Pandemic Flu Task Force is seeking volunteers to form a Neighborhood Network of Wayland residents in case pandemic flu strikes our community.

Our Neighborhood Network will be activated only if a highly lethal form of pandemic flu strikes, a flu which is so severe that society’s structures, systems and social fabric are threatened and/or breakdown (schools/business closures, loss of services, reduced supplies of food, medications, excessive absenteeism, overwhelmed medical services, etc.)

(snip)

Wayland’s Pandemic Flu Network and Plan, hopefully, will enable its residents to endure any potentially tragic pandemic flu scenario with community-cooperative spirit, grace, dignity, knowledge and confidence.”

Northstar – at 21:07

Oh, THANK YOU, AverageConcernedMom (your handle always cracks me up) I had given up on finding that article ever again!

I am hoping I can dig up one I clipped from a local paper — a nearby (wealthier) community council had started signing preferential contracts with food & other suppliers — in the case of a blizzard, earthquake, tornado or anything *besides* bird flu, they’d be first in line for deliveries. I thought it was just brilliant and sent it along to my own community leaders, saying it was just the common-sense, proactive kinds of actions I’d like to see taken by our township government with regards to AI. Didn’t get an answer, but I hope it got somebody’s attention. I do know my little township recently had a closed-door meeting about how to keep the city government going in a pandemic.

Northstar – at 21:36

Here’s another interesting one: A Utah newspaper ran an emergency preparedness insert that had to go to a _second run_ because of the interest!

“For the most part, Utahns are stepping up. The Daily Herald’s emergency preparedness section was so popular that we had to do a second press run, which quickly sold out. Even elected officials are following the advice to prepare for the worst. Steve Rundquist, the state’s Community Emergency Response Team program director, said Gov. Huntsman and his staff will be going through CERT training later this year, setting a fine example for all Utahns.”

http://tinyurl.com/e8l79

Bronco Bill – at 21:58

plan now for a possible pandemic, which means having four to six weeks worth of water and nonperishable food

I’m glad to see that more and more MSM are shunning the gov’t suggestion of 3 days of preps for something a little closer to reality.

Bronco Bill – at 21:59

Utahns? Is that what residents of Utah are called? I truthfully never knew that…

LauraBat 22:03

If only other communities were doing the same things. It would go a long way to saving lives and preventing potentially ugly civil unrest. I wonder if ohter Red Cross chapters will take notice?

blackbird – at 22:22

If anyone finds a link recommending (officially) a longer prep timeframe, I would surely appreciate it for forwarding to my local PTB.

04 September 2006

Bump – at 01:34

07 November 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:51

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Page last modified on November 07, 2006, at 08:51 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Influenza Genome Project 2

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Influenza Genome Project 2

28 August 2006

anonymous – at 12:56

continued from :


http://www.fluwikie2.com/pmwiki.php?n=Forum.InfluenzaGenomeProject

01 September 2006

anon_22 – at 19:30

A very interesting paper has just been published in Emerging Infectious Diseases Genomic Signatures of Human versus Avian Influenza A Viruses which compared a large number of human and avian influenza A sequences and found 52 ‘species-associated’ positions, where specific mutations may enable avian viruses to become a human virus.

There were 21 out of 95 avian viruses that contained one or more of these changes and with full length segments. (Table below).

“We found that 19 of 21 strains contained >1 species-associated amino acid change, and 7 of them contained >2 substitutions; A/Netherlands/219/2003(H7N7) had the highest count for mutation accumulation (3 positions). Among these 52 species-associated signatures, the mutation combinations at positions PB2 199 and PA 409 were most commonly seen in H5N1 human isolates from Hong Kong in 1997.”

anon_22 – at 19:41

Further, “most of these (40 of 52) are located in viral ribonucleoproteins (RNPs) (PB2, PB1, PA, and NP), which are essential for viral replication. Taubenberger et al. reported 10 amino acid residues that distinguish human and avian influenza viral polymerases (3). Six of them were also identified in this study.”

The 10 changes reported by Taubenberger are as follows, the bold ones are the six found in this study:

  1. PB2 199
  2. PB2 475
  3. PB2 567
  4. PB2 627
  5. PB2 702
  6. PB1 375
  7. PA 55
  8. PA 100
  9. PA 382
  10. PA 552

Characterization of the 1918 influenza virus polymerase genes, Taubenberger et al, Nature

anon_22 – at 19:48

COMMENT: There does seem to be some correspondence between these changes and virulence in humans, since there is a disproportionate number of the 1997 H5N1 (which infected 18 people within a short time) having >1 mutation.

Notice also that the only virus with 3 changes was H7N7 from the 2003 outbreak in Netherlands, which caused 89 cases among poultry workers, 1 of which was fatal. Also, subsequent seroconversion data showed 58.9% of family members becoming positive despite no exposure.

Human-to-human transmission of avian influenza A/H7N7, The Netherlands, 2003

Tom DVM – at 20:14

anon 22 19:30

 “How many mutations would make an avian virus capable of infecting humans efficiently, or how many mutations would render an influenza virus a pandemic strain, is difficult to predict.”

Kind of says it all…doesn’t it.

anon_22 – at 20:24

yes, but the 3 mutations for H7N7 scares me. It doesn’t seem to take a lot.

NJ. Preppie – at 20:25

Thank you Anon_22

The H1N1 pandemic virus had 16 of the 52 apecies signature changes, so a virus doesn’t need all the 52 changes. Does the chart above (of 1 and 2 and 3 changes) include the entire sequence, or is that only looking at a specific nine site sites? I find it hard to believe there are only 2 changes in H5N1 and would like to know how many of the 52 species signature it has.

anon_22 – at 20:28

NJ,

There chart showed all the avian ones that had the mutations. But it could be due to limited availability of samples.

There are other additional details in the paper including the significance of PB1-F2 so it’s well worth reading.

Tom DVM – at 20:32

annon 22. These things are intriguing and of scientific interest but I believe we can do it phenotypically and intuitively like in the past.

I still believe H5N1 is going to make all the changes at once and pop up.

anonymous – at 20:57

Tom DVM – at 20:32 Selecting vaccines phenotypically and intuitively is what produced the last few years’ poor matches of seasonal influenza vaccines to circulating strains. There are numerical matching techniques that are less influenced by personal bias that would be expected to do much better. The technical term for thinking you can do this phenotypically and intuitively is ‘hubris’, although ‘pride’ works, too.

NJ. Preppie – at 23:03

anon_22

It appears to me that this quote: “At 9 of these 52 positions, residue changes were characteristic of human rather than avian viruses” signifies that the chart only represents 9 of the 52 signature positions. For one thing, the top of the chart does not represent the 8 genome segments but only where the 9 specific positions are located. For one thing, NP has 15 signature positions but isn’t even on the chart. PA has 10 signature position and only shows one position on the chart. PB2 has 8 signature position and only three are shown; and so on… Hence it is only a partial list, 1/6 of the possible 54 species signature positions.

anonymous – at 23:06

I’d like to have the nucleotide-positions, assuming each amino-acid change corresponds
to one nucleotide-changing. And there are probably more than 52 relevant changes then
including the synonymous changes.
And then we should see, how i.e. the human/avian H5N1-viruses behave at these positions especially those in Indonesia. (the paper considered all flu, not only H5N1 and they didn’t yet have the released Indonesian sequences)

NJ. Preppie – at 23:57

Try to figure this out- the baseline for an avian virus sequence is a consensus of 95 avian sequences, 60 of which are HP H5N1. Some of the other samples were from high path outbreaks, such as the H7N7 Netherland sequence. This is already not representative of a normal low path avian virus. H5N1 has presumably made some mammalian adaptations, but that is not being separated out and won’t show up. Here’s a quote from the article:

“Although we intended to analyze a comprehensive set of avian versus human influenza A viral genomes, the available sequences are predominated by H5N1 in avian viruses and H3N2 in human viruses. The short supply of sequences other than those 2 subtypes may inevitably cause a certain amount of bias in our results.”

I don’t understand why the H5N1 sequences are not judged, as a third category, between a regular nonspecie-crossing avian virus, and a regular human virus. Then we could better to see where the differences are and what the distance is for a new pandemic.

02 September 2006

Bump – at 00:53
anon_22 – at 09:08

anonymous – at 23:06 I’d like to have the nucleotide-positions, assuming each amino-acid change corresponds to one nucleotide-changing. And there are probably more than 52 relevant changes then including the synonymous changes.

The paper and the full supplementary information should all be at the link that I posted.

anon_22 – at 11:13

NJ. Preppie – at 23:57

That’s a good point, although they did also say this:

2At the completion of this study, we noticed a recent article by Obenauer et al., who had made 169 newly sequenced avian influenza viral genomes available to GenBank on January 26, 2006 (34); these were not included in our analysis. We checked on our 52 signature positions against these new genomes and found only 2 of them that showed an entropy value slightly over our threshold –0.4. These are PB1-F2 87 and HA 237, with entropy values of –0.522, and –0.692, respectively.”

As the Influenza Genome Project continues, more and more varieties of sequences available, whether avian, human, swine, or others.

NJ. Preppie – at 13:54

Anon_22

  The 52 sites were picked as the differences between the mostly H5N1 sequences and the human viruses. That would leave out the important signature differences that would occur if they started all over again comparing LPAI with human for a new set of signature sites. As you see in that quote tyhey are only comparing the 52 site differences which were acquired essentially between H5N1 and human flu. Think of the difference of looking at only those 52 sites versus the thousands of sites in the real bird AI sequences. This takes away a lot of meaning in this project except for the generalities of where there are more mutations. It will be misleading as that 52 signature sites is the difference to a regular H3N2, which would not be a pandemic virus, just a “thank God” regular flu. The 16 changes in the 1918 H1N1 versus a low path Avian Influenza would be more important to understand.
anonymous – at 14:30

low path vs. high path. won’t necessarily make much difference in the sequences. With nucleotides I get 382 significant differences in PB2,292 in PB1,342 in PA, 269 in NP or 64,42,66,63 if I discard base3-differences in the codons. (67 representative normal H3N2 and 62 representative modern H5N1).


I’m also wondering, why they didn’t take the 15785(!) sequences in the first step.

anon_22 – at 14:30

NJ, Yes, I don’t think this is the last word on the issue, more like a first study. Also, the additional 169 genomes, are they H5N1? I haven’t checked yet.

anonymous – at 14:33

214 genomes available at genbank since yesterday ! 38 new ones, mostly from Indonesia

anon_22 – at 14:53

I just checked. The 169 has a whole variety of different avian subtypes, its not all H5N1. http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/data/1121586/DC1/1

NJ. Preppie – at 15:28

Anonymous- I don’t mean low path so much as avoiding basing the avian consnsus on H5N1 since it is infecting many mammals already. I would like to see a set avian species signatures that left out H5N1, then compare that to the human viruses to get the “X” amount of signature sites of differences between humans and bird viruses. Then we could see where H5N1 falls in the mutation differences between the species. I would have thought the point was to understand the transission process of a new pandemic virus, not just how different H5N1 is from H3N2.

anon_22 – at 15:29

NJ, They could only work with what was available then. As more whole genomes become available, we will find out more.

gharris – at 23:48

bump

03 September 2006

BUMP – at 06:47
Side Scroll Problem – at 07:41

Would love to be able to read this more easily.

anonymous – at 08:02

NJ, since anything is somehow avian except maybe H3N2,
and since H3N2 is currently most successfull in infecting humans,
I thought the best we can do is comparing H3N2
(>1000 genomes available !) with H5N1.
The remaining genes, except HA,NA, that is.
We could also include H9 on the avian side and H1
for both, avian and human.
The other idea is, to restrict to H5N1 and compare
avian and human H5N1 - the data for these are increasing
in Indonesia.
What I will do next is, taking my representative 67 H3N2
and 62 H5N1 and “rate” the avian and human H5N1 by it.
This is basically just looking which H5N1 got the most
polymorphisms typical for H3N2 in genes PB2,PB1,PA,NP

anonymous – at 08:19

OK, here is what I get.
high score = avian-like, low score: H3N2-like (human)


PB2:
.1579234946372085 > 343 blackheadedGl/HK/12.1/03
.1573836822291477 > 364 Ck/IDN/PA/03
.1555196149630548 > 087 Ck/Salatiga/BBVet-I/05
.1552221853226582 > 285 Dk/Guangxi/351/04
.155153555777169 > 370 Dk/China/E319–2/03
.1548559152081644 > 134 Dk/VNM/283/05
.1545831144472668 > 359 Ck/HK/SSP141/03
.1545362654534458 > 008 IDN/298H/06
.1542219251161441 > 225 Ck/Purwakarta/BBVet-IV/04
.1539782531400162 > 264 Ck/VNM/39/04
.1539081023416456 > 242 Ck/VNM/134/04
.153702208687762 > 407 greyheron/HK/861.1/02
.1534155529135381 > 207 Ck/Henan/16/04
.1534067851430001 > 198 Ck/Guangdong/178/04
.1530204755009005 > 159 IDN/5/05
.15281094929754 > 369 Dk/YN/6445/03
.1527158435979333 > 332 VNM/3046/04
.1526666999334075 > 360 Ck/HK/WF157/03
.1525452702212547 > 176 Qa/Guangxi/575/05
.1523964454889867 > 254 Ck/Yogjakarta/BBVet-IX/04
.1523920902055116 > 154 IDN/175H/05
.152290506244294 > 085 Ck/Magetan/BBVW/05
.1520261401560061 > 213 Ck/KulonProgo/BBVet-XII-1/04
.1519160448555268 > 399 Dk/HK/821/02
.1517305857236415 > 276 Dk/Guangdong/173/04
.1516528772218806 > 251 Ck/VNM/C58/04
.1515583231664015 > 215 Ck/Kupang-1-NTT/BPPV6/04
.1511719832266272 > 073 Ck/Dairi/BPPVI/05
.1509796939598097 > 156 IDN/239H/05
.1508587908701721 > 391 Ck/HK/3169.1/02
.1508056585135873 > 137 Dk/VNM/376/05
.1506657012154169 > 086 Ck/Purworejo/BBVW/05
.1505483922372308 > 011 IDN/341H/06
.1505380652691641 > 361 Ck/HK/YU324/03
.1503132561968226 > 099 Ck/Yunnan/447/05
.1502827312038727 > 160 IDN/6/05
.1500805452041197 > 311 peregrinefalcon/HK/D0028/04
.1498829686577154 > 178 Qa/THA/NakhonPathom/QA-161/05
.1498484465215976 > 082 Ck/KulonProgo/BBVW/05
.1497805910769098 > 043 IDN/CDC624E/06
.1496220949712087 > 337 VNM/CL100/04
.1495688771291428 > 147 Gs/Shantou/1621/05
.1494003335185545 > 092 Ck/THA/Kanchanaburi/CK-160/05
.1492350019812747 > 041 IDN/CDC623E/06
.1492138696856636 > 366 Dk/HN/5806/03
.1492036826120881 > 133 Dk/VNM/272/05
.1491379350525932 > 161 IDN/7/05
.1488693554170854 > 267 crestedeagle/Belgium/01/04
.1485171978978702 > 329 VNM/1194/04
.148295513738305 > 372 Dk/Shantou/4610/03
.1482031140288319 > 015 IDN/538H/06
.1478283011889608 > 199 Ck/Guangdong/191/04
.1476649810790322 > 075 Ck/Fujian/1042/05
.1475725427100604 > 076 Ck/Guangxi/604/05
.1470521259324876 > 079 Ck/Hunan/999/05
.1468735020656727 > 181 THA/676/05
.1468564603468718 > 115 Dk/Guangzhou/20/05
.1461192103711431 > 081 Ck/IDN/CDC25/05
.146046597930399 > 177 Qa/Shantou/911/05
.1459215301041493 > 054 Zhejiang/16/06
.1449403483498255 > 062 barheadedGs/QH/62/05
.1401105333017087 > 388 Ck/HK/96.1/02
PB1:
.1199215552077962 > 366 Dk/HN/5806/03
.1198714097108547 > 391 Ck/HK/3169.1/02
.119585068106621 > 254 Ck/Yogjakarta/BBVet-IX/04
.1194354929536095 > 407 greyheron/HK/861.1/02
.119333076648793 > 225 Ck/Purwakarta/BBVet-IV/04
.1190808410133064 > 369 Dk/YN/6445/03
.1183048533718608 > 242 Ck/VNM/134/04
.1182923232006319 > 087 Ck/Salatiga/BBVet-I/05
.1182878988297687 > 359 Ck/HK/SSP141/03
.1179825496820621 > 343 blackheadedGl/HK/12.1/03
.1179715540786119 > 361 Ck/HK/YU324/03
.1179383346664152 > 099 Ck/Yunnan/447/05
.1178275345643955 > 213 Ck/KulonProgo/BBVet-XII-1/04
.1177406971318819 > 134 Dk/VNM/283/05
.1176491987383329 > 388 Ck/HK/96.1/02
.11726284990245 > 360 Ck/HK/WF157/03
.1169103472016878 > 215 Ck/Kupang-1-NTT/BPPV6/04
.1168406181163902 > 364 Ck/IDN/PA/03
.1167243496641855 > 133 Dk/VNM/272/05
.1164338626638156 > 137 Dk/VNM/376/05
.1160115224777375 > 285 Dk/Guangxi/351/04
.1153841490099269 > 086 Ck/Purworejo/BBVW/05
.1153158648502134 > 207 Ck/Henan/16/04
.1149484418723502 > 079 Ck/Hunan/999/05
.1142765182758038 > 332 VNM/3046/04
.1138869553498063 > 041 IDN/CDC623E/06
.1138714701002973 > 160 IDN/6/05
.1138668019538893 > 082 Ck/KulonProgo/BBVW/05
.1137690907664518 > 161 IDN/7/05
.1136886394390511 > 085 Ck/Magetan/BBVW/05
.1136557702020277 > 159 IDN/5/05
.1135375650962601 > 043 IDN/CDC624E/06
.1130889849437522 > 264 Ck/VNM/39/04
.1130608146533048 > 370 Dk/China/E319–2/03
.1128766904108726 > 073 Ck/Dairi/BPPVI/05
.1128278116246347 > 156 IDN/239H/05
.1127963608288497 > 198 Ck/Guangdong/178/04
.1126806703671268 > 399 Dk/HK/821/02
.1125125969884132 > 267 crestedeagle/Belgium/01/04
.1122814657700548 > 015 IDN/538H/06
.112156063785967 > 081 Ck/IDN/CDC25/05
.1118895232831788 > 337 VNM/CL100/04
.1118654699355959 > 154 IDN/175H/05
.1117981957974704 > 199 Ck/Guangdong/191/04
.1117846814683939 > 329 VNM/1194/04
.1117284210834889 > 276 Dk/Guangdong/173/04
.111529100830445 > 311 peregrinefalcon/HK/D0028/04
.1111736764857871 > 092 Ck/THA/Kanchanaburi/CK-160/05
.11114897016835 > 251 Ck/VNM/C58/04
.1111311178081184 > 011 IDN/341H/06
.1108718169233031 > 076 Ck/Guangxi/604/05
.1106842562749871 > 177 Qa/Shantou/911/05
.1100911917702855 > 372 Dk/Shantou/4610/03
.1098318492769505 > 178 Qa/THA/NakhonPathom/QA-161/05
.1096141039208235 > 176 Qa/Guangxi/575/05
.1094353352090249 > 062 barheadedGs/QH/62/05
.1092202379413416 > 008 IDN/298H/06
.1088617520420804 > 075 Ck/Fujian/1042/05
.1084696966296512 > 115 Dk/Guangzhou/20/05
.1063987727402635 > 181 THA/676/05
.1058073659801139 > 147 Gs/Shantou/1621/05
PA:
.153405815368126 > 215 Ck/Kupang-1-NTT/BPPV6/04
.1498780226467608 > 177 Qa/Shantou/911/05
.1495918105468682 > 254 Ck/Yogjakarta/BBVet-IX/04
.1484161673954689 > 099 Ck/Yunnan/447/05
.1482374762205358 > 147 Gs/Shantou/1621/05
.1475950371092172 > 311 peregrinefalcon/HK/D0028/04
.1473184512374963 > 199 Ck/Guangdong/191/04
.1472890583902859 > 134 Dk/VNM/283/05
.1471440386153736 > 364 Ck/IDN/PA/03
.1469922022662818 > 137 Dk/VNM/376/05
.1468881888942119 > 085 Ck/Magetan/BBVW/05
.1467878410486993 > 115 Dk/Guangzhou/20/05
.1467399218196741 > 087 Ck/Salatiga/BBVet-I/05
.1467382596404981 > 075 Ck/Fujian/1042/05
.1467034415112381 > 225 Ck/Purwakarta/BBVet-IV/04
.1465141797443485 > 369 Dk/YN/6445/03
.1465081546317485 > 329 VNM/1194/04
.146414560683283 > 076 Ck/Guangxi/604/05
.1461715655581889 > 213 Ck/KulonProgo/BBVet-XII-1/04
.1459849142334033 > 207 Ck/Henan/16/04
.1459167932082808 > 251 Ck/VNM/C58/04
.1458048350050187 > 399 Dk/HK/821/02
.145706030620197 > 082 Ck/KulonProgo/BBVW/05
.1457032226562514 > 159 IDN/5/05
.1456952586381347 > 161 IDN/7/05
.1455597844708278 > 062 barheadedGs/QH/62/05
.1455131664302026 > 264 Ck/VNM/39/04
.1454020623260966 > 360 Ck/HK/WF157/03
.1452888608809008 > 267 crestedeagle/Belgium/01/04
.1452142219129524 > 178 Qa/THA/NakhonPathom/QA-161/05
.1452041970930001 > 156 IDN/239H/05
.1451467986001411 > 081 Ck/IDN/CDC25/05
.1444884390454117 > 361 Ck/HK/YU324/03
.1441229749233165 > 079 Ck/Hunan/999/05
.1437947294556969 > 086 Ck/Purworejo/BBVW/05
.1437218541915267 > 154 IDN/175H/05
.1436245179006857 > 133 Dk/VNM/272/05
.1435453447401594 > 370 Dk/China/E319–2/03
.1435279611087421 > 276 Dk/Guangdong/173/04
.1434705447606967 > 092 Ck/THA/Kanchanaburi/CK-160/05
.1434137812710954 > 043 IDN/CDC624E/06
.1429987738042634 > 041 IDN/CDC623E/06
.1429613145535268 > 073 Ck/Dairi/BPPVI/05
.1426177991627134 > 011 IDN/341H/06
.1424010622202822 > 285 Dk/Guangxi/351/04
.1423553595327305 > 160 IDN/6/05
.1421068110147085 > 181 THA/676/05
.1419835238681439 > 008 IDN/298H/06
.141765172556799 > 198 Ck/Guangdong/178/04
.1417491918300455 > 332 VNM/3046/04
.1404195423410447 > 407 greyheron/HK/861.1/02
.1403728011966105 > 343 blackheadedGl/HK/12.1/03
.1402372825240876 > 337 VNM/CL100/04
.139529039969681 > 372 Dk/Shantou/4610/03
.1388644233158666 > 015 IDN/538H/06
.1385127333103516 > 366 Dk/HN/5806/03
.1383898839972842 > 391 Ck/HK/3169.1/02
.1379698406842848 > 359 Ck/HK/SSP141/03
.1378819363786185 > 176 Qa/Guangxi/575/05
.1340325000129047 > 388 Ck/HK/96.1/02
.1255926641593717 > 242 Ck/VNM/134/04

NP:
.1735804789601883 > 388 Ck/HK/96.1/02
.1713352738867069 > 399 Dk/HK/821/02
.171246710015765 > 359 Ck/HK/SSP141/03
.1709337607226924 > 207 Ck/Henan/16/04
.1708762316847752 > 160 IDN/6/05
.1704503749876374 > 133 Dk/VNM/272/05
.1699263136884112 > 364 Ck/IDN/PA/03
.1694505053985643 > 369 Dk/YN/6445/03
.1694200848307049 > 073 Ck/Dairi/BPPVI/05
.1692553713523615 > 198 Ck/Guangdong/178/04
.1690562436366644 > 366 Dk/HN/5806/03
.1690126328580446 > 137 Dk/VNM/376/05
.1690046831375706 > 391 Ck/HK/3169.1/02
.1689964033295621 > 343 blackheadedGl/HK/12.1/03
.1689569581906907 > 361 Ck/HK/YU324/03
.1686990733284784 > 264 Ck/VNM/39/04
.1684515801072623 > 370 Dk/China/E319–2/03
.1679338401740773 > 086 Ck/Purworejo/BBVW/05
.1679283319239206 > 407 greyheron/HK/861.1/02
.1674924337715014 > 054 Zhejiang/16/06
.1674391245212145 > 337 VNM/CL100/04
.1669355634809534 > 159 IDN/5/05
.1668171228852244 > 276 Dk/Guangdong/173/04
.1667092642815899 > 082 Ck/KulonProgo/BBVW/05
.1664353182063641 > 329 VNM/1194/04
.1664234060804156 > 041 IDN/CDC623E/06
.1663686031434243 > 085 Ck/Magetan/BBVW/05
.1662918433604757 > 251 Ck/VNM/C58/04
.1660926432827001 > 285 Dk/Guangxi/351/04
.1660095279151468 > 242 Ck/VNM/134/04
.1658375298107329 > 081 Ck/IDN/CDC25/05
.1658016032880709 > 043 IDN/CDC624E/06
.1656016738930933 > 015 IDN/538H/06
.1655688426065738 > 008 IDN/298H/06
.1654300360646691 > 092 Ck/THA/Kanchanaburi/CK-160/05
.1653696908753596 > 178 Qa/THA/NakhonPathom/QA-161/05
.1646530518629601 > 011 IDN/341H/06
.1645777869004395 > 062 barheadedGs/QH/62/05
.1645522149420291 > 267 crestedeagle/Belgium/01/04
.164459252701771 > 176 Qa/Guangxi/575/05
.1642578156147845 > 181 THA/676/05
.1641892978974463 > 332 VNM/3046/04
.1641030298314199 > 134 Dk/VNM/283/05
.1638819270085146 > 225 Ck/Purwakarta/BBVet-IV/04
.1637108712362984 > 154 IDN/175H/05
.1636750656493872 > 199 Ck/Guangdong/191/04
.1636479112854343 > 161 IDN/7/05
.1633599917755796 > 079 Ck/Hunan/999/05
.1633529948739641 > 311 peregrinefalcon/HK/D0028/04
.1631745608455204 > 177 Qa/Shantou/911/05
.1625260800839129 > 215 Ck/Kupang-1-NTT/BPPV6/04
.1618961308854727 > 360 Ck/HK/WF157/03
.1615437554513077 > 076 Ck/Guangxi/604/05
.1614891062283263 > 156 IDN/239H/05
.1613462739338984 > 213 Ck/KulonProgo/BBVet-XII-1/04
.1608985243823299 > 115 Dk/Guangzhou/20/05
.1604193588943865 > 099 Ck/Yunnan/447/05
.1599837208852031 > 372 Dk/Shantou/4610/03
.1599133464480305 > 087 Ck/Salatiga/BBVet-I/05
.1593334257378019 > 075 Ck/Fujian/1042/05
.1589279844480527 > 254 Ck/Yogjakarta/BBVet-IX/04
.158747837384866 > 147 Gs/Shantou/1621/05

BUMP – at 19:39

04 September 2006

anonymous – at 01:29

here is an excert from the scoring by that method for some H5N1-viruses.
the scores for those 4 genes were just added.
Early viruses i.e. HK/97 were much more human like in this list
than modern H5N1


human like (H3N2):
----------------------------------

 .2375 treesparrow/Henan/3/04
.2471 HK/483/97
.2725 Dk/VNM/8/05
.3769 Dk/Shandong/093/04
.4373 Ck/HK/822.1/01
.4468 Gs/Guangxi/2112/04
.4574 swine/Fujian/F1/01
.5250 crow/Osaka/102/04
.5542 Co/Astrakhan/Ast05–2−8/05
.5574 grebe/Tyva/Tyv06–2/06
.5578 Dk/Shantou/4610/03
.5590 Ck/VNM/32/04
.5595 Dk/Fujian/897/05
.5596 THA/676/05
.5599 Dk/Kurgan/08/05
.5601 THA/NK165/05
.5602 Turkey/65596/06
.5607 IDN/CDC582/06
.5626 IDN/CDC597/06
.5732 VNM/1194/04
.5773 IDN/6/05
.5791 Dk/VNM/258/04
.5792 leopard/Suphanburi/THA/Leo-1/04
.5793 IDN/5/05
.5890 Ck/Kupang-2-NTT/BPPV6/04
.5898 Ck/THA/73/04
.5900 Dk/Hunan/191/05
.5928 Qa/Boyolali/BPPV4/04
.6052 Ck/IDN/5/04
--------------------------
avian-like (distant to human H3N2)

>><<

07 November 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:49

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.InfluenzaGenomeProject2
Page last modified on November 07, 2006, at 08:49 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / What Got You Started

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: What Got You Started

01 September 2006

Wolf – at 21:23

urdar-Norge – at 20:31

some of the answer may lay here, right on the forum. After spending time here for almost a year. I realise that newcomers have valubale information on what it took to get them interested.. Did someone new here hear it from friends, coleagues etc, then after some kind of proces started to investigate it or what? Please post if you feel like charing a self analysis on your learning.

urdar-Norge, I think is is a very valuable train of thought.

What got you thinking? What motivated you to read, to prep, to CONSIDER the possibilities?

As always, input is appreciated. This may help us find how to reach the (seemingly) unreachable.

Wolf – at 21:31

For myself, as I’ve previously posted on other threads, I was a CDC junkie watching for signs of climate change via disease (disease being only one among many measurements I watch) Canada Sue’s brilliant novella focused my attention to the problem at hand. I continue to monitor climate change, but now with a primary focus on disease. What brought you here, friend?

Science Teacher – at 22:05

Hi, Wolf. Good idea: we can learn from this. One of my kids told me he had heard about it maybe 2 years ago and asked what I knew about it. I did a google search and ended up here at the front door. I learned some facts. I became alarmed. I read Canada Sues’ amazing story. I was shocked to say the least. I stayed off my computer for 3 days and then crept back here to learn more. My ‘adjustment reaction’ had begun. Sometimes people need to be ‘shocked’ a bit to read on and learn what they can do.

Tom DVM – at 22:08

Wolf. You are not alone. I believe that climate change and sunspots have a major impact on disease…as I believe we are now seeing the consequences of.

I am pretty sure that Medical Maven feels the same way. I keep my eye out for any posts of M.M.

Science Teacher – at 22:12

Tom, when, how, did you learn that a pandemic might be coming?

Tom DVM – at 22:15

Sorry, I was off topic as usual.

I have been following H5N1 seriously since Sept 2004. I thought I was alone in my concerns at the time but it turned out in the end that I wasn’t.

I was reading crofsblog H5N1 when I saw the connector or whatever to this thing called ‘flu wiki’. I had no idea what a wiki was but the name intrigued me…so I clicked on it.

I wasn’t really impressed the first couple of times until someone said something on the forum that was clearly wrong…or at least I thought it was…

…so I very tentatively made my first post…and then Clark from New Zealand and DemFromCt and the rest of the regulars encouraged me to keep posting.

We all have significant others and my wife has a bit of a love-hate relationship with my new internet interest…

…she calls you guys ‘flu icky’ by the way.

I’m a man…I can change…if I have to…I guess (Red Green TV Show)

I have to manage my time a little better /;0)

I have to do a better job of managing my time.

Wolf – at 22:17

TomDVM - Remember? What a beauty!

Just as solar scientists were ready to start breathing normally again, active region 10486 blasted off yet another mega-flare, starting at 19:29 UT on 4 November 2003. This one saturated the X-ray detectors on the NOAA’s GOES satellites; the jury was therefore out for a while on the definitive classification of the flare. Based on the data found on the NOAA SEC’s space weather pages (and links therein), speculations ranged from simply well above X20, to X40 or even X50!

A day later, word came from the SEC that their best estimate was X28, with a peak around 19:50 UT. Although the exact number will likely be debated for some time, it is now official: We have a new #1 X-ray flare for the record books.

Wolf – at 22:19

Aw, heck. Off topic. Pardon me, flu-icky

Wolf – at 22:22

But not off topic, actually. It’s part of what fot me here.

Tom DVM – at 22:22

Science Teacher. Let me put it this way…I am not enamoured with the powers to be in China…they are not enamoured with me…the feeling is mutual.

I became aware of some serious intentional food adulteration in Sept 1998 and have been intensively investigating a lot of things about China since that time.

My investigation involved health and disease and therefore incorporated first SARS and Foot and Mouth disease and H5N1 and strept suis infections in humans etc. etc. etc. etc. etc.

The food adulteration clearly indicated to me that there were some serious problems with ethics and good neighbourly considerations and H5N1 etc. has demonstrated that the defficiency is consistent across the board.

China needs to smarten up and be a good world citizen…a lot of short term gain for long term pain…I sometimes have had a hard time believing some of the stuff they have pulled.

I don’t expect an invitation to visit any time soon. /:0)

SaddleTrampat 22:22

Last September, I somehow, accidentally, came across Tom Davis’ article and Michael Osterholm’s Financial Times article on the same day. A double-barreled shotgun right in the gut.

I still think I was “meant” to read those articles — I certainly wasnt looking for them. Since then I have had a couple of prophetic dreams, directing my next move in prepping. I take those dreams very seriously, and for a lot of reasons, my family members do too. Everyone is prepping except my parents who say they intend to come to my home when TSHTF.

Wolf – at 22:25

read got for fot please.

Tom DVM – at 22:25

Wolf. Trust me…watch for Medical Maven to post…when he does grab him and have a talk about this stuff…he knows a heck of a lot more than me…you will definitely learn from the discussion.

Thanks…everything about global warming and sunspots is true…and I for one would appreciate any updates you come up with.

Wolf – at 22:27

CIDRAP and Osterholm had much weight with me also, Saddletramp. And the dreams! Good grief!!!

gharris – at 22:30

I write occasional articles for a local ‘lifestyle magazine’ (anybody eastern Ontario check out Watershed Magazine - it is fAB!!) (she said modestly blushing!) - I was given the assignment of writing about raising ‘backyard chickens’ - (this was around the time of the ‘Turkey cluster’ last winter) Sitting here at pc researching on the web for chicken coop designs etc and listening to CBC radio. Kept hearing the news abt the cluster of H5N1 and at the same time tripping over it when googling ‘chickens’. Suggested to my editor that perhaps we shouldnt be encouraging folks to raise backyard chickens just at the moment and that it might be a better idea to do a low key article on H5N1 instead. Was given the green light for that, which started me down the road of serious research on BF - lurked around CurEvents for a while - read Canada Sue’s book-let and was scared rigid - around the same time found FluWiki and now check in several times a day. I have begun prepping and have tried to spark initiatives with municipal govt to run preparedness info sessions etc - but get the ‘uh-oh looney’look from most officials, so now just try to get the info out to friends. DH has forbidden me to spend more than 5 minutes in any social situation talking about it!!! :-)

Anon_451 – at 22:35

Received some paper written by a group of lawyers in Miami from my sister in law. (Note she is not a prepper) I though about it and did not think to much of it. Then I started getting things from my employer and did a lot more research. Started Prepping and then started to look for sites that where teach me more. Found some of the other sites and they all taked about the wikie. Found the site and lurked for a while then stated posting. Tom are we married to sisters?? My DW calls it “Flu icky” as well.

Texas Rose – at 22:38

I’d been having dreams about something bad happening in this country for years but kept them to myself. In the past few years, the dreams have become more intense. I mentioned to the husband that I thought it would be wise to start planning in case we had to go to ground or to run. I thought he would laugh at me. He didn’t. He agreed and he has been an enthusiastic partner in prepping.

I stumbled across this board when I was following a story about the woman from South Africa who got sick while flying to England. It was reassuring to learn I wasn’t the only one who felt like time was growing short, even if we might not agree on the reasons why.

Tom DVM – at 22:41

ANON 451. /:0)

Wolf – at 22:45

←--Adult son has put the kibosh on anymore discussion of “The Pandemic”. NO MORE BIRD FLU, MOM! (But then, he knows mama’s preparing…) This, too, may be important. As SaddleTramp noted - there are those in her family who know she’s keeping up with this… they’ll just come to her for help. It’s not responsible to put the burden on those who are following this, but I’m experiencing it myself. Not a denial - a lack of personal responsibility. This need sto be emphasized I think. I want to scream! - Grow up!

Tom DVM – at 22:49

Wolf

For what its worth, you will be right in the end…but I’m not sure any of us want to pay the price for being right…if you know what I mean.

I gave up trying to convince others over a year ago…sometimes it is too soon…we are ahead of our time…the timing isn’t right…unfortunately I believe it is going to happen in a hurry without a lot of time to react…better get prepping relatively soon.

lady biker – at 22:50

I have more or less been a lifetime prepper, and I have always had people laffing at my cabinets and back room . but for the last three years that feeling has ramped up quite a bit and for the last two years I’ve been quietly reading here and elsewhere on the net. I have talked to family and gotten them to prep too but not much luck with friends . for that I have been made fun of and even today it happened when my new orders came in and a friend was here when I was unpacking it. I just smile and hope I have enough for her too if need be.

Jefiner – at 22:59

I am not sure what led me to the wiki initially back in February—it may have been a link noted on the worm on Fox News, or it may have been a google search. But I was seriously concerned about AF even before I got here. DH’s daughter (hence my stepdaughter) lived in Hong Kong during the ‘97 AF scare, and despite the the fact our political views could not differ more widely {{{dear stepdaughter!}}}, I take her concerns very seriously. She is the one who told us about the concerns that the poobahs at the UN had about AF. But with all this, she is still moving back to HK.

What I have learned here has turned me into a survivalist (in all the most positive senses of the word) and how to integrate that thinking into my life. It may be a false sense of security, but I am happy to have it knowing that there is a safety net if things truly do blow up in our faces.

Wolf – at 23:06

biker lady - I think lifetime preppers may have an edge here - your dear-ones already know you mean business!

I’m off work and getting too yakky - have at it, all, ; we’re gonna figure out how to get these folks to help themselves, yet.

amak – at 23:17

I think I stumbled across the “icky” because of a report on cnn or something like that online back in the winter - whilst I was searching for BF reports in the news. Didn’t really know how to search out the BF news till I got here. But now… prepping & the prepared life style… I think that is my calling. It was a missing piece in my life! Maybe it will help, maybe it won’t, but I can’t see that it can hurt anything!! Somedays it’s just my security blanket because that it is the only thing I can do - that I can control about BF - but so be it. Like I read somewhere earlier tonight, if TSHTF, & it’s my time to go down, it’ll be kicking and screaming and fighting for life. And probably throwing a few cans of beans at it too!!!

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 23:20

I guess I’d say a higher power must have led me here……I was prepping back in 1999, and was on a couple of excellent forums then, the main one was a forum where Canada Sue started writing and posting her ‘brilliant novella’ as someone above called it-we panted for each new chapter she ‘prepared’ for us! We were all enthralled, we learned from each other, we got scared with each other, we were curious with each other about martial law, executive orders, what would happen if all the convicts were released by accident, and about bean flour and solar power and spiritual fitness as well as physical fitness. We pushed handouts, gave lectures, designed t-shirts, and we survived. We even planned to get together after 2000 to celebrate our preparedness successes and we did. I was in charge of location & we rented a farm in Arkansas that catered to any level of comfort — campers, cottages, house with rooms, RV pads, etc., and we cooked together, laughed and played together and enjoyed our self-sufficiency.

I haven’t got a clue when or how I landed here, but honestly, I felt like I’d come home and that there was even more to learn, especially since in 1999 we all planned to go through Y2k with our health intact. Being sick puts whole new layers of preparedness obstacles in our way, and makes the whole future even more challenging.

In 1999, I changed our lifestyle in one basic way; I maintain a pantry that was started back then with short and long term foods & supplies of all sorts. Since then I’ve added camping gear, printed information, organized stuff, planned evac routes, etc., and just kept working on getting and staying more prepared every day. It’s just part of my life process now.

Northstar – at 23:27

I’m interested in both science and history; I came to realize the point where these two interests intersect is invariably pandemic disease. It has changed the world repeatedly. Combined with family history — a dear grandmother’s tale of losing all her hair to the Spanish Flu, and seeing a mass burial weathering from a hillside in Alaska (from the flu) I developed an interest in the flu, particularly. I’ve been watching this one since the Hong Kong outbreak.

When it started popping up again, I followed the news reports. Sometime early last year I turned to my husband and said in a tone that brooked no discussion: It is time to start putting some food in the basement. He looked like he was going to say something but thought the better of it. After many moons, I became so frustrated with the slow pace of reporting from the WHO and CDC, that I started googling flu and stumbled across the Flu wiki. People with food in their basements! Kindred souls! I couldn’t believe my eyes. For so long I had felt like I was the only one, a Cassandra of the Canned Goods.

amak – at 23:34

I hadn’t a clue in 99… in fact probably a year ago I had no clue. WHAT made me start scouring news on this BF.. no clue. Just one day I came across it, read something and BAM! Complete focus on it. I sometimes think like I’m workin on it said - some higher power had to have given me a push this way - cuz as a hobby, I certainly could have picked something more fun. I feel like I lead such a naive life before and I need to know how to do more to take care of my family.

Gary Near Death Valley – at 23:56

The how I began in prepping actually goes back to a time when I was a young teenager. The learning experience that I obtained really came from a couple of sources, both fairly clost to each other a timeline. The first one that really got my attention (even at the ripe old age of 14 years old, was the “Cuban Missle Crisis” of 1962. The cold war was heating up big time, and the US placed a blockade onto Cuba and the Soviet Union and the USA came so close to a nuclear exchange it was not funny. As the crisis unfolded, even at my young age, I began storing water (at that time in glass jugs) and formed a group of kids around my age, to also prepare in storing things. Did not really accomplish much, but did get tons of information from Civil Defense at the time, on radiation fallout, storage of food etc, and the like, and how to be properly prepared in case of war. Luckily that crisis did end,,,,the Russions blinked,,,,,that time.

The 2nd crisis that I faced, a year later, was the October “Columbus Day Storm” of 1963, where 100 mph winds ramsacked Oregon. My family was without power for a couple of weeks, as we lived in a small town away from larger cities. And what we did to get thru that time, was a lesson for me in how to be prepared. My parents had gone thru the depression of the 1930s and really had some things stored etc, as most people did that went thru the depression.

At the age now that I am (just turned 60), and retired from the fire service for 10 years now, I have seen first hand the destruction of earthquakes, floods, tornatoes, fires, etc etc, on a population that does not prepare. When I was teaching classes when a Fire Marshal, would tell the audience that they would be on their own for a week or longer, if something big happened that covered the area all at once, such as an earthquake. So even at that time, I was into preparation and now retired and living near Death Valley, really into prep as I study the news worldwide, and what happens on the other side of the globe can affect us here in our living room. I got married about the time I retired and my bride was already into preparations and storage of items for ages, and in many ways had a more practical head on her shoulders than I did. So when we moved to the desert, we began in earnst to be prepped and now could easily not set a foot off our property for 2 years if needed. It does help to have two heads into preparations for sure.

02 September 2006

Wrenna – at 00:31

If it wasn’t for an off-the-wall result while using an Internet search engine I wouldn’t be here. Prior to Y2K there was a now-defunct website that told how to fully stock a pantry in 52 weeks by buying something different every week. I tried all sorts of keywords to see if the list had been copied elsewhere. One of my searches led to wildlandfire.com, a site for wildland firefighters, where there was a link to a section called Bird Flu Watchout. Curious, I clicked and read. There were a couple of links to the Wiki and that’s what led me here. Up to that point I had minimal awareness of avian influenza and was so shocked by what I read that I immediately started prepping.

Bump – at 00:50
blackbird – at 01:23

The Karo cluster tipped me over from “worried and taking pandemic seriously” to “OMG, it’s starting and I forgot to PREPARE.” Looking back, I’m shocked at the extent of the gap between my belief that there will be a pandemic (and/or other emergency situation) eventually, and the lack of any concerted action to prepare for it. Yes with brain and emotions on the one hand, and No with time and effort on the other = denial followed by sheer panic when I realized the disconnect.

As for how I got here, DH had pointed me here early last year but I only used the wiki side looking for news. I didn’t even think to check out the forum. Maybe I lead a sheltered life but most of the internet discussion sites I’ve seen are more like arguing forums, or else just plain boring. This one is different in the depth of knowledge, caring and community. You all do an unbelievable amount of good here — thank you all.

BirdGuanoat 01:40

One thing.

Watching Katrina play out live on National TV.

Google did the rest.

prepping in the columbia river valley – at 02:05

BirdGuano – at 01:40

Yes

Nimbus – at 04:32

Avian Flu was not even on our radar until we read a grim and fascinating article in one of the January issues of New Scientist magazine. We took a day or two to absorb the information, gauge our reactions, and gather some more facts. We hit the ground running and have been seriously prepping ever since. Found the wiki early on in the research process and like someone else said, it felt like home.

AzNewBeat 06:23

Advid reader, sometime poster. What got me started was my DM actually, She posts here alot. One day she asked me what I knew about BF, which was very little. She then went to the site and showed it to me. What got me the most was that she’s never worried about much. She always said”I’ve yet found a way to get out of this world alive.” For her to worry about this caught my attention, and I’ve been prepping since(4 mths), and I’ve had that feeling of panic for the past month,feel like I wont have enough for everyone when it blows this way.

LauraBat 06:34

I was actually in Hong Kong the first time so I saw first hand the concerns in people’s faces (and masks in some cases - creepy). Eventhough that one was short lived, at first they didn’t really know what it was, which added more fear. Also, having seen live animals markets (there and elsewhere) poor sanitary conditions all over the world, lousy lousy medical care, rampant poverty, it makes it all to clear how quickly this thing could turn into a world crisis. I’ve been keeping an eye on AF for quite some time, but this January/February started becoming more owrried. Beileve me, I am no Oprah fan, but for some fateful reason I saw her show with Osterholm. I think I had seen it advertised and made a point to watch it since I’m not even normally home when her show is on here. His words were pretty chilling on a show known for fluff. There was a bit more media coverage then as well. I normally watch the BBC news and their coverage is far better than most in the US. I found this site, read Barry’s book, did research, and started prepping in earnest in March. What a relief that was.

I stated on another thread: if you trying to get others to prep, realize that for many of us it took time. For me there was no “ah-ha” moment really. Don’t push but prod gently. Assess what information sources are credible to your target (do they rely on news or valued friends and family?). Be ready to answer questions once the lightbulb goes off for them.

LauraBat 06:37

not enough coffee - should have said “once the lightbulb goes ON for them.”

03 September 2006

blackbird – at 05:26

bump

Cactus – at 08:41
   I don`t really remember when I first heard about AF. Afew years ago, I think. But, I did no more than think it was going to be horrid, when it hit. So, I started paying a bit more attention whenever I read or heard something.

 I never actually saw Oprah`s show. I usually work nights, and she`s on during my sleep time.But, I did see the trailers for it. That led me to her web site, and discussion groups, which eventually led me here, and to other AF sites. I still visit others, but this one feels more like “home”

So, now I know what to do, besides saying “It`s going to be bad” Thanks everyone here, and thanks to the brillant minds that started this place.

Average Concerned Mom – at 09:08

My husbands father (who just passed away last week) was an MD in volved with public health — in fact, he was the founder and dean for many years of a school for public health at a large university. On our last visit there, he pulled me aside and told me that he wanted me to pay attention to “bird flu” and also that although the official government recommendation was to try to store about 2 weeks of food and supplies at hand, that he and many others believed that at least 6 weeks was more likely. I asked him “what about masks” as I had read just a little about the use of N95 masks in the paper and he reacted emphatically, “It would be far better to just stay at home.”

I told my husband about his conversaion with me and we both kind of blew it off. The man was known for being a little bit cynical and suspicious. He also told me not to tell anyone, and I thought that was a bit odd, because I knew 99.99% of the people in my life would have the same reactino I just did — stay at home for 6 weeks? You have got to be kidding.

Anyhow, when I got back from vacation, I did just a little bit of reading and chacking into things, and found the fluwikie and other sites. Again, I discounted a lot of what I was reading, especially when people started sounding to Y2K. For comparison, I even found some Y2K sites that were still up, and it amazed me how quickly the advice for that threat went from “there may be a few days of disruption” to “Thus, stockpile at least a year’s worth of food!” It seemed to me that certain people just WANTED to have a year’s worth of food stored up, and the threat of “bird flu” gave them the justification they needed.

The next week, our county mailed an emeregency preparedness booklet to everyone, and it was a thick tome, filled with what to do in all sorts of emergencies… pandemic was never mentioned, but they sis stress they wanted us to have 2 weeks of fod AND WATER on hand for emergencies. That recommendation was interesting to me.

I emailed our local moms group to see if people in the area actually did this, and got many responses from people in the greater Washington DC area who do, indeed, stockpile food and water; and some of them mentioned pandemic as the reason why.

I then went BACK to Fluwikie and read even more. I did read Canada Sue’s story as well as The Great Influenza. I think it was May at this point, and Karo happened — I started freaking out a bit, ran up the credit card a bit, emailed my friends and family a bit. I was pretty sure something was going to start NOW! (-: I also watched just the end of the Oprah show and the Bird Flu movie. I have great respect for Oprah.

From everything I have been reading about how other people came here, I have a theory that people need to hear multiple sources of information about the possibility of a pandemic to take it seriously. If the information comes from an MD or a VERY respected emergency/preparedness expert or publication, they might not need so many sources to initially get involved.

But what also helps is a “story” Canada Sue’s novella seems to have helepd people (I think the Bird Flu movie could have helped people but most of us have a knee jeerk reaction against such “sensationalized” movies — we figure if they are making a movie out of it, it can’t possibly be serious — probably it would have much better effect if someone made a movie specifically about the Spanish Flu….) The book The Great Influenza also is a good “story” to put things into perspective. Also, I think the idea of asking people first “What do you know about Bird Flu” and actually LISTENING to the response, and only giving people the next step of the information they need, is a great strategy. I know I would have listened to my father in law, sooner, if he had done that.

no name – at 11:58

Higher power definitely!

Attending a quarterly spiritual seminar in February, a paragraph mentioning the BF was spoken. At the May seminar, an entire hour was devoted to the subject. I was taken back because the physical plane is not the focus of this study. The day after the seminar Oprah rebroadcast the BF show!!! Prior to May 31 BF wasn’t on my radar screen in any sense…from that day til now it is full throttle ahead.

The overwhelming focus and drive to prepare is unlike anything I have experienced within myself. I am the ulitmate procrastinator in most things, but this sense of urgency is consuming me. I am surprised and amazed as I watch myself during this process.

I am very curious how all this will play out in the future.

Watching and Learning – at 12:33

The issue of pandemic flu came to my attention about 25 years ago when I chanced on a paragraph on the 1918 flu in a book by Doris Lessing. I was stunned to learn how many people died, more than in the war…and further stunned that such a huge global event was not spoken of, nor taught in schools as huge tragic episode of the 20th century. I am still puzzled by this, very puzzled.

Then 15 years ago I read a feature article on the theme of a pandemic will happen again, just not known when. I began watching for more information on this issue. Then my mother came so close to dying from influenza that it is a miracle she is alive. That was three years ago. I have been following bird flu since then, with preparation earnestness throughout this year.

Thanks for the question!

Kathy in FL – at 12:50

Well, believe it or not, what brought me to fluwiki was an accident. I was hunting the web for disaster fiction … yep, fiction … and ran across Canada Sue’s fic story on bird flu.

I’ve always been interested in prepping, the prepping lifestyle, survivalism, and disasters of various kinds my whole life. My first Steven King novel was “The Stand.” I also read a lot of disaster type fiction as a pre-teen and teenager.

I was mildly Y2K responsive, I enjoy the Urban Homestead lifestyle, and prep for hurricanes and power outages religiously. I also enjoy camping and hiking.

All of these interests kind of came to a point … a very sharp one … while I was reading CanadaSue’s account. I kind of lurked for a bit while I tried to determine if my imagination was running away with itself.

And here we are today … still here, still worried, and hopefully contributing things that others in my position might find useful.

Feather Pillow – at 13:29

No Name at 11:58….I also was at that seminar and was also affected to the point that I am now as fully prepped as I can be. Also, it was amazing to me how prepping became a spiritual exercise and affected everything. BTW, I found the wiki after the first mention you mentioned. I was searching and found it and thought….Oh wow. Here it is . It’s all here. I am a daily lurker, sometimes poster. Have been amazed at how urgency goes down when prepping is finished. Very interesting experience, wouldn’t you say?

pine ridge – at 14:58

“flu icky” I love it, my dh always asks me if “peak flu” happened yet, as I’m always reading peak oil sites too ;) now I tell white lies that “I’m just reading the news”

And reading the news is what got me here. Every once in a while I would see something about BF, and read it, but nothing further. Then one day I did a google news search, and it didn’t bring up the kind of info I wanted. So I did a regular search. I think the first site I went to was pandemicflu .gov What struck me the most was that despite the .gov telling us to prepare for “civil unrest” they didn’t give a time frame for anything.

It didn’t take long to find sites like the “icky” with real info. (and great people!)

But I’ve always been a prepper, at least for shorter term events. Now I’ve just added new scenarios

no name – at 17:50

Feather Pillow @ 13:29

SMALL WORLD…Yes, the entire process is an exercise in detachment, balance(not there yet) and admiration for the “perfect being” that the virus represents for me. The BF virus is singluarly focused on evolving and expansion, I can only hope I am able to gain that focused intensity in my experience.

I can’t remember how I got to Fluwiki, but I was directed. I am grateful to the collective efforts of all sharing information and support. Sincerely grateful and humbled by the scope of giving I have experienced.

Take care…see you in September.

04 September 2006

Centex – at 00:08

Osterholm on Oprah in Feb of this year. Watching the craze after Katrina and Rita in our own backyard…Attending the Mike Leavitt roadshow - I got sucked in F A S T…

Petticoat Junction – at 00:38

As far as prepping, I am like Kathy in FL; it’s always been a ‘hobby’ of mine. As a kid I read the Foxfire books repeatedly. I’ve always wished for a self-sufficient place off in the woods somewhere and although we live in town now, we are working hard to be as ‘independent’ as possible, all the way down to homeschooling. So prepping is a natural for me anyway.

I have been actively, decisively, intensely prepping for the last 18–24 mo or so (you’d probably think I was crazy if I told you why, though I think someone else ~ TX Rose? ~ mentioned intense dreams which drove them to prepare) and was spurred on to even more serious prepping after watching the absolute insanity when Rita blew through here last fall, on top of BF concerns.

As to the flu, I grew up hearing stories of the 1918 pandemic and the impact that deaths among my grandmother’s siblings had on the family; it’s always been part of my conciousness and an interest of mine. I remember seeing a tv special 10–15 yrs ago on the social impacts of 1918 and it sparked a definite “What would happen today?” moment for me that has never gone away (especially now).

Add to that the input of my uncle on the other side of the family, now retired but for many years one of the big ‘cheezes’ at the Mayo Clinic (probably shouldn’t say which one w/o his permission; he’d be easy to identify). He has been saying for the past, oh, 10+ years that we are way overdue for a flu epidemic and each winter he has grown increasingly uneasy, always phoning my mother to make sure she got her flu shot, etc. When BF began to enter into the picture, his alert level jumped. His opinion is that if this hits like it could, it will dwarf 1918.

I found FW by accident in January, though, when I was searching for something else on BF/prepping. So very glad I did.

07 November 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:49

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.WhatGotYouStarted
Page last modified on November 07, 2006, at 08:49 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / New Rumors XI

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: New Rumors XI

02 November 2006

Bronco Bill – at 12:02

Heard any good rumors lately? Post ‘em here. Continued from New Rumors X here


observer – at 11:20

Dark Winter demonstrates the potential threat we face from multiple sources and why prepping should not be linked to a single event (avian influenza pandemic, Y2K, the cold war, Katrina, blizzards, 9–11). Unfortunately, people frequently dismiss the whole idea when the potential disaster of the moment doesn’t come to pass. My parents generation believed in being prepared and they were - they live through alot. They didn’t expected the govenment would be able to arrive and save them. It is time we too, understand what they understood. We are each responsible for those we love. Government will do what it can but it will be very limited. The threat has always been real, we chose not to think about it; to ignore it; to expects it was someone elses job; to shoot the messenger; to lay the blame elsewhere. Sometimes reality sucks but that doesn’t change the facts.


crfullmoon – at 11:22

JWB – at 09:03 :-(

Frenchie Girl, “can the American citizen possibly believe that their spying structures can help protect them???” Je le ne croix pas.


observer – at 11:37

FrenchieGirl – at 11:17

Article was from 2002 - “Just for a reality check about smallpox… Iraq and North Korea Possess Smallpox, Intelligence Indicates… A U.S. intelligence official confirmed that the Central Intelligence Agency concluded last spring that Iraq, Russia, France and North Korea are likely to possess stocks of smallpox”

libbyalex – at 16:42

Any conjecture about the new WHO article on the probable high CFR rate and what’s to come?

INFOMASS – at 16:59

Libbyalex: Maybe I misread their statement, but it seemed more of an “if-then” kind of statement. IF the virus becomes easily transmissible as an avian virus, THEN it would be very deadly. [not a quote - my rephrasing] I saw no suggestion that it was more or less probable than reassortment with a human flu virus, which they say would be less deadly. We all would love to get some sense of the chances of one or the other, but unless we understand more about viral evolution than it seems we do, we just do not know.

anon_22 – at 17:14

libbyalex – at 16:42

Any conjecture about the new WHO article on the probable high CFR rate and what’s to come?

It’s not a conjecture at all. The scientists are verifying what we’ve been saying for a long time. Check out this classic FW discussion Must A PanFlu Decrease In Lethality

Medical Maven – at 18:24

The conjecture is not about the likelihood of a high CFR, that is old news as anon_22 pointed out. The conjecture is why did “old lady” WHO raise her skirt and “flash” the world with that information at this precise point in time. She could have done it at any time in the last few months. Why now?

This is the “second shoe” to drop in as many days. The “first shoe” was the just-revealed, long-dominant Fujian strain of H5N1.

And prior to that you had the rumored/reported apocalyptic rumblings from mid-level underlings at the WHO headquarters in Geneva.

There is more to this puzzle. We are missing the catalyst. The ones in the know long knew what we knew for months. Nobody is that stupid.

Grace RN – at 18:47

MM @ 1824

“We are missing the catalyst.”

That’s what worries me. Catalyst ‘X’

crfullmoon – at 18:54

Yug. Medical Maven – at 18:24; what an unpleasant visual.

ok, “IF the virus becomes easily transmissible as an avian virus, THEN it would be very deadly”

now: cue all the past, “It is not a matter of “if” but “when” we have an influenza pandemic offical statements…

Klatu – at 20:08

Goggle search Nov 2/06….go figure.


East China province reinstates bird flu monitoring

Xinhua - 11 hours ago

JINAN, Nov. 2 (Xinhua) — “Shandong Province, east China, has reinstated round-the-clock bird flu monitoring to prevent possible outbreaks as more and more migratory birds fly over the province on their way further south.”

UN officials: Migratory birds not major cause of flu transmission

Xinhua - 9 hours ago

NANCHANG, Nov. 2 (Xinhua) — “UN officials on Thursday said migratory birds do not play a major role in the transmission of the highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1.”

Pixie – at 22:22

TomDMV:

My daughter today received an email about”The Great Epizootic of 1872,” the horse epizootic that occured in 1872 and I wondered how it fit into your historical perspective of the flu.

It seems that in 1872 the flu-like epizootic caused the death of approximately 1/4 of all horses in America. After those losses, lack of horse power forced tram companies to look for ways to mechanize and electrify their routes, and they did.

From a primary source of the times, they also mentioned: “Recently the chickens have become attacked with similar ailments, to the great alarm of the farmers.” http://tinyurl.com/yzpkxg

03 November 2006

Tom DVM – at 11:47

Pixie. Wow. Thanks. It just goes to show, how much circumstancial evidenciary information is out there that we don’t know about.

I know of H3N8 in horses but that is about it. I don’t think it is very prevalent but I am not a horse expert. I know that H3N8 was stable for many decades before jumping the species barrier to attack dogs recently in the United States.

I wonder if this outbreak in 1872 was when H3N8 emerged. I did notice that the writer noted that chickens were also infected…confirming it was influenza.

I found the following quote most interesting:

“So the scientific (?) editor of the New York Herald, who repeatedly makes himself the laughing-stock of all better-informed readers by his theories of the aurora borealis, of the heat of last summer, etc., etc., comes out with an article on the horse disease, and proclaims that it is intimately connected with well-marked meteorological phenomena, namely, the recurrence of the sunspots in sopra-annual cycles, which bring every twelve years the greatest aerial and electrical derangements to our planet ; and seeing that the cause is not terrestrial, but planetary and cosmical, it helps to unravel the mystery, and is a step in the right direction.”

I remember back in the 1980′s when I first heard of an effect that sunspots supposedly had on viral mutations…I thought they were NUTS!! How could an atronomical effect have an effect on the lowly virus.

It piqued my interest and I continued to read the odd mention about such things…then in 1988, the hydro system in Quebec, Canada was shut down by a solar flare…I was reallly impressed.

Anyway, I am convinced that sunspots are one contributor to the situation we now find ourselves in…not only with China Flu but also with SARS, HIV, Ebola, Hendra, Nipah Foot and Mouth etc. etc. etc. viruses as well as mutations in mosquito borne diseases like West Nile in New York City and Dengue fever in Asia …as well as allowing the virus to infect different insect species…as well as a wide range of bacteria including MRSA’s.

The shifting bedrock is occurring in distinct geographical locations around the world…

…and I believe this environmental pressure is the primary reason that China Flu will be a pandemic soon.

Thanks again for the wonderful look back to 1872.

Sunny – at 12:33

Sorry if this is a question which has already been answered - but what is the current sunspot “situation?”

Are we in a period similar to previous outbreak periods?

Thanks

Tom DVM – at 12:39

Hi Sunny. I don’t have the chart in front of me…in fact I lost it and the sunspot thread that it was on seems to have disappeared…

…anyway, we are definitely in the point in the sunspot cycle that increases our chances of a pandemic and I believe the danger keeps getting worse until approx. 2012…but I could be wrong.

One way that I have come to look at suspot activity is that there may be a lag period between ‘cause and effect’ meaning that it could be a stimulus a few years ago that has increased mutation activity now…

…the charts do indicate that periodicity in suspots matches the periodicity in pandemics…

…understanding that pandemics are multi-factoral in etiology of course.

tjclaw1 – at 13:03

Ok, this is not really a rumor, but more a strange question/concern. I was just looking at coats at a major retailer - they are “goose down” and I know most of this company’s products come from China. Do you think there should be any concern about “goose down” products? I don’t know how the products are produced and what methods are used to clean the down. Anybody else ever thought about this?

tjclaw1 – at 13:06

Now I see that their comforters are “certified sterilized safe” but the coats don’t mention this. Think I’ll inquire….

Clawdia – at 13:08

I’ve thought about it - almost ordered a down blanket last night, and then common sense grabbed me by the scruff of the neck and I went and bought a silk sweater instead. I think the only feathers I want are the ones I’ve lived with for the past couple of years (that’s when I bought my quilt and pillows!).

Homesteader – at 13:10

This may be old, so put it under rumors.

Its Not Going Away:

According to the OIE’s report on November 24, 2005, the Thai government claimed “No new outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza were reported during the week under report.” [1] No recurrence of HP H5N1 was reported in the following weeks and months.

So, on April 10, 2006, the OIE issued a final report, which states that, based on information from the Thai government:

One hundred and forty (140) days have elapsed since the last case of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in Thailand (on 9 November 2005), where stamping-out with compensation was employed. [2]

The press promptly reported the eradication of avian influenza from Thailand and Vietnam and added to the self-praise of the Thai government for having taken effective measures.

The question

What does it mean if a country reports they haven’t found H5N1 in recent months? If it were Russia, or a country in most of central Europe, it probably would be good news because there is reasonable surveillance and reporting. But one can’t take negative reports for granted. See the Thai example:

Outgoing Ubon Ratchathani senator Nirand Pitakwatchara said at the weekend that he believes bird flu has resurfaced in Thailand, but that state authorities have concealed the matter for political reasons . . . The senator’s comments coincided with the disclosure by a livestock official who told a Phoojadkarn Daily reporter that bird flu has returned in Phichit and Phitsanulok provinces, killing poultry there in recent months. [3]

If this allegation is true, does it mean that the HP H5N1 virus has returned after a successful eradication campaign, or was it not eradicated in the first place and just not detected?

Bad news

Apparently what’s killing Thai poultry in recent months is the H5N1 virus.

As of a week ago, Thai government representatives were still claiming there were no human cases.[4] The same day, a 17-year-old man was reported to have died from acute lung infection and flu-like symptoms, confirmed to be a death from H5N1 infection.

As of July 27, 2006, the Thai Office of Disease Prevention and Control 8 reported nine new cases and sixteen further cases under investigation. [5]

As of July 28, 2006, there apparently were forty-four patients under close supervision after they developed bird-flu-like symptoms, and seven Thai provinces were declared bird-flu “red zones.”

Link: http://realage.typepad.com/?cbr=GGLE243_R

tjclaw1 – at 13:20

Some items state “certified sterilized safe” while other items say “super clean.” Uh, I think I’ll pass on the goose/duck feather coats and comforters.

Makes me wonder if there are other non-obvious items we use/purchase every day that are made of materials which could carry virus.

Abraxas – at 13:49

Pixie & TomDMV:

The 1872 Great Epizotic seems to have been caused by mosquitos.

http://tinyurl.com/y9q66x

<snip>

The Boston fire scared people, and scientists were urged to work even harder to find the cause of the Great Epizootic. But the virus was never isolated. The disease continued taking its toll until well into December, when really cold weather set in and suddenly ended its ravages. Only later did scientists learn that cold weather had killed the mosquitos that transmitted the deadly virus.

Scaredy Cat – at 13:53

Sunny,

Sunspots were discussed on the Pigs in China thread.

Tom DVM – at 14:02

Abraxas. Thanks. I am from southern Canada and the mosquitos are usually gone here with the first frost in early September. I would assume that frosts in Buffalo and Syracuse would also be in September. Frosts in New York City would probably occur in October.

Since the disease continued to kill horse until December, I would not think it was mosquito-borne which would kill animals earlier in the summer.

The article did say that the disease seemed to kill more horses housed together which would also fit respiratory transmission more than mosquito borne transmission.

A really interesting situation though, that I had never heard of before Pixie pointed it out…

…I wonder if this was the beginnings of influenza in horses. Pigs did not have influenza before they caught it from us in 1918 and it has not left Pig populations since.

Tom DVM – at 14:03

I wonder also if this was the beginnings of H3N8 that has now jumped to dogs.

Abraxas – at 14:39

I’ve done some more googling and most articles about the 1872 epizotic seem to confirm that it was flu.

I’m amazed that I had not heard of this before. One-quarter of the horses in the US died, but it’s impossible for one-quarter of the humans could die from H5N1. Does that make sense. Nope.

cottontop – at 15:00

TomDVM- I wonder if increased sunspot ativity was in effect during the 1918 pandemic?

We had a later than usual first frost, and no Indian summer. I’m 90 miles north of Syracuse. Sure missed all those ladybugs in my house. To not have Indian Summer here is odd to us. But, you what is creepy? No one has realy noticed we didn’t have one.

anon_22 – at 15:00

tjclaw1 – at 13:03

Ok, this is not really a rumor, but more a strange question/concern. I was just looking at coats at a major retailer - they are “goose down” and I know most of this company’s products come from China. Do you think there should be any concern about “goose down” products? I don’t know how the products are produced and what methods are used to clean the down. Anybody else ever thought about this?

As part of pandemic preparedness, we may need some really good practice in risk assessment, cos we will need it almost every day, at every turn, come a pandemic.

One useful way of assessing risk is this, has anyone been known to be infected this way? If you don’t know, then ask yourself how many goose down products have been sold in the past 3 years in your country, and whether anyone else has come down with the disease.

If you are extra paranoid (this being a descriptive not derogatory word), then you might say well some people might have been infected, undiagnosed, died, and I didn’t hear about it. Yes, my response would be, consider how may people have died in car crashes in the last 24 hours, yet you still get into the car.

Just my 2C, or one way of approaching risk. Adopt it if it is useful. :-)

Here’s my motto for risk: Don’t aim at zero percent. That only happens when someone dies.

cottontop – at 15:15

annon_22-

good advice. I am led to believe that it is the body fluids,(in chickens), that spread the virus, not the feathers. So,tjclaw1, I’d go ahead and buy that coat! Makes me remember the feather pillows we used as a child. I would pull on feather out, and a whole bunch would follow. I hated those d**n pillows.

Green Mom – at 18:40

Cottontop- Down here in ky we sure have the lady bugs! I’ll send you some if you want…:-)

Feather Pillow – at 18:56

cotton top @ 15:15 Hey now!

MAinVAat 19:34

Re: Current Sun Spot Activity. Actually we are the very bottom of the sun spot/solar flare cycle right now. Picturing a wave, we are in the trough and the next peak will be around 2012. That said, the last cycle of solar flare activity was highly unusual and lasted way past its peak time. In fact, in late 2003, when cases of H5N1 were showing up in some places, there was the largest recorded solar flare in history! During the days immediately prior to this flare there was extremely unusual solar activity in the form of multiple higher intensity X Class flares grouped within a short time frame. The question remains whether this 2003 burst of flares is somehow connected to the emergence of H5N1 in humans.

Anyone interested in the possible correlation between solar flares and flu putbreaks can google the term “Heliogeophysical Conditions on Influenza Diseases” I believe the link will download a PDF with the graph that Tom DVM referred to above.

cottontop – at 20:08

Green Mom- Would love to have’em.

Feather Pillow- LOL. No offense intended.

04 November 2006

janetn – at 00:19

The feathers are sanatized anyway

tjclaw1 – at 00:53

anon_22 You are absolutely right. I guess I’ve become a little concerned about animal products that come from regions affected by H5N1, as well as the geese and ducks migrating across my back yard and telling the kids not to touch the feathers and bird doo. Add to that the recent infections associated with produce, and I get a little worried about the safety of the products we buy.

BTW, I meant no offense when I mentioned products from China - what I really meant was bird products from countries known to have H5N1. Guess I was having a blonde moment - oh yeah, I AM a blonde!

gharris – at 01:31

I am blonde too TJC! But I dont eat frozen shrimp from Indonesia anymore!!

diana – at 14:02

I was listening to Dr. Ronald Hoffman and a guest. He mentioned Walmart will be featuring organic food. Only one problem, the guest thinks they’ll be getting it from China. Problem. Polluted water. Heavy metals???? The guest was a skeptic. Problem you might be getting it cheaper, but…. And we are outsourcing everything to our own economic disavantage. I don’t see any produce on the shelves of any Walmart I have been to, so I assume it would be frozen organic.

Jane – at 14:55

The frozen fish filets I almost bought yesterday at Fresh Market were from Indonesia. No thanks.

Last year we were told that the mosquito that carries West Nile virus is not killed by frost or freezing. It can revive during a warm spell in January, for example. And spread disease then. Wonder if that’s true of other types of mosquitoes?

janetn – at 15:26

Go read Dr Gregers book. you wont feel the same about chicken from this country either. getting my chickens from the Amish.

tjclaw1 – at 16:11

janetn – at 15:26 Go read Dr Gregers book. you wont feel the same about chicken from this country either. getting my chickens from the Amish.

Only problem with getting chick or eggs from a farm is that the chickens are usually “free range,” so they could get infected when they mingle with migrating birds. I used to get my eggs and chicken from a local farmer, and was going to get a fresh turkey from them, until I became aware of H5N1 last year.

Don’t be fooled into thinking that products are safer just because they are produced in U.S. Lots of geneticically modified products, hormones in milk, heavy metals in water. Heck, we even have radon in our city drinking water and it doesn’t meet EPA compliance.

Nova – at 18:03

Regarding earlier comment suggesting Walmart gets organic food from China. I have bought some what I thought were “name brand” organic canned goods there (Libby’s, etc.). Is there the suggestion that these are imitation “Libby” brand foods and really from China!? China has quite the reputation for counterfeiting brand name items. I will be extremely upset because I did get some “organic” canned chicken there that wore a well-known American-brand label.

diana – at 18:10

Walmart is reported to be getting into the organic area. I don’t think this is the case at present. It is something I heard on WOR last nite. I had just gotten back from a movie so it was probably around 9. A guest and ‘Dr Hoffman were discussing food.Organic beef, Organic produce in general and that was the last thing I heard before leaving my car.

Nova – at 19:01

Yes, here in the west they do already have organic foods of all kinds. Specifically what Walmart organics were suggested to be from China?

anonymous – at 19:41

can someone who believes in the sunspost theory of enhanced viral activity please tell me HOW they think sunspot activity is affecting virus INSIDE host bodies? OR do you think the effect occurs in the brief period the virus survives in the environment.

lohrewok – at 20:52

Anyone else notice on that rsoe/havaria map all the volcano’s erupting in the world? I have never seen anything like that before!

Betty – at 20:56

lohrewok @ 20:52 - Yes, I noticed that too! Doesn’t it feel with everything that’s going on, that something big might be getting ready to happen??

On the fence and leaning – at 20:57

Do you have that link?

Spirit in the Wind – at 21:01

The triangles are currently erupting volcanos.

http://tinyurl.com/bmpbq

anonymous – at 21:14

lohrewok, betty, and otf&l

Download this program, and run it through time, and you’ll see the ebb and flow and relative consistency over time, (with statistical variation) of volcanic eruptions. Earthquakes too, for that matter.

 Purdue_link

which is a actually a program written by this Professor- it is found on his homepage about halfway down.

 ProfessorJones_page

remember that the more you look for something, the more likely you are to see it, and the reason all that volcanic activity (much of which are not acutual cataclysmic eruptions) looks unusual to you, is just because you’ve never seen it all gathered in one place before.

DennisCat 21:28

with the “Your genes may hold key to how sick you get from the flu” report from Southern Illinois University School of Medicine, Does anyone know if there is a relation to blood type? Remember we were talking about that several months back. The report was about the genetic differences in mice (lung proteins) but I wonder if there is any confirmation about blood types. Does anyone have the blood types of the various groups of positive cases?

Anon, too – at 21:45

Anon @ 19:41 Can’t say as I’m one who “believes” in the effect of solar flares on virii since I generally like to work with patterns and correspondences which may or may not involve causation; however will still take a run at this. Perhaps we could compare the effects of the ionic and magnetic storms generated by solar flares and corneal mass eruptions to what happens in photosynthesis-? After all, how does the Sun’s rays work on underground seeds, which they apparently do. Solar flares and/or CMEs can effect the electronics of highly sophisticated satellites and have even taken out power grids on Earth. Virii are so simplistic, wouldn’t they be even easier to effect? YMMV of course.

Now, speaking of “patterns and correspondences,” while I’m here I think I’ll take this opportunity to post something I’ve been discussing with a couple of board members, who have encouraged my research over the last week. To the best of my knowledge, the following statements and statistics are true. Don’t feel I can post more, however, due to the likelihood of running up against certain observed [pre]judgments…. but here goes:

Working hypothesis: When event X and event Y occur at the same time, there is a statistically high probability that a flu pandemic with significant CFR, or another comparable public health crisis/crises, will be triggered within weeks or months.

X has a specific, verifiable definition and the mathematical likelihood of 4.16% Y has a specific, verifiable definition and the mathematical likelihood double that of X or 8.33% XY occurring at the same time has the mathematical likelihood of .034%, or 3 chances in 1,000.

During the last 176 years, XY has occurred a total of 5 times. In 4 out of those 5 times, or at a rate of 80%, a world wide flu pandemic or comparable public health “event” occurred. These events happened in 1830, 1889–90, 1918, and 1976. There were two milder flu pandemics in 1958 and 1967 which neither fit the XY pattern nor had significant CFRs when compared to the other prior events. Thus they fall outside the limitations of the hypothesis and, for that reason, may actually confirm it.

Importance: Beginning on October 24th, 2006, the XY pattern went into effect and will continue through Dec 8th, 2006, with possible aftereffects beyond that date. If the statistics above bear up, does that mean there is a high probability a flu pandemic [or other public health crisis] will emerge during the 2006–2007 flu season?? [Bear in mind it may take time for this “emergence” to be recognized should it occur in a remote location, and also that it may not be announced immediately by official government or worldwide medical organizations for their own reasons.]

disgruntled – at 21:54

Tom DVM – at 12:39

…anyway, we are definitely in the point in the sunspot cycle that increases our chances of a pandemic and I believe the danger keeps getting worse until approx. 2012…but I could be wrong. … …the charts do indicate that periodicity in suspots matches the periodicity in pandemics… ←


Tom, the relation between sunspots and pandemics is trivial: the solar cycle to some extent controls large-scale climate. Geese and ducks nest near water, and the drought/flood cycle moves their migration pathways. When the US Midwest has a drought, few birds nest there, preferring to move northwards or overseas to find suitable habitat. It is these factors relating to large-scale changes in migration patterns, along with the fact that most avian influenza is spread via the oral/gut path in birds, that controls how many multiple infections occur: the fewer lakes, the less mixing, the smaller the lakes, the less mixing. It is the recombinations caused during multiple mixing that drive new pandemic strains to emerge. This is really not that complicate. But sunspots don’t “cause” pandemics, they just set climate cycles in motion, and the climate cycles drive migration, and the avian influenza is just a hitchiker on these greater cycles. It’s hard to see the 22 year solar cycles because we only live to see a few, so you need good records to reconstruct what is going on.

The 11 and 22-year cycles are not that hard to spot, all you need is a weather station with about 100 years of record. In Excel, in column A type 100 years of annual rainfall data. Then get the average for the 100 years. In column B, calculate the difference between the year’s data and the mean. This is called the deviation. Do this for every number in the column. In column C, total up the accumulations verticaly, the first deviation in the first cell, the first two added up in the second cell, the first three added up in the third cell, on to the bottom, which will be the sum of all 100 deviations from the mean. Graph this third column with time, and the larger climate cycles pretty much jump out. You see droughts start, deepen, and fade out, and wet cycles ramp up, peak, and flatten out. Some stations are more sensitive to the 11-yr cycle, some are more sensitive to the 22-yr cycle. If this seems too hard, look at tree rings on a tree over 100 years old. These big climate patterns drive practically everything, so it’s no surprise that all kinds of wierd things track the climate cycles. But as far as sunspots causing influenza pandemics, it’s not as simple as that.

Grandma – at 22:23

Hi All, Have lurked for awhile and posted a couple of times.Got A Google News Alert today for panemic news. This is by Victor D’Angelo of the www.dogflu.ca A New bird flu strain has emerged in China and is spreading quickly. Human infections caused by this new strain have also turned up in many different locations. The new strain is vaccine-sensitive. “This virus seemed to spread very fast over a big geographic region.,” said Yi Guan,director of the State Key Laboratory of Emerging Infectious Diseases at the University of Hong Kong in China;. Dated at2006–11–04 17:30

gharris – at 22:48

Spirit in the Wind@ 21.01 So what’s with the damn chicken over Lake Ontario on that map link???

Grandma – at 22:51

If you are having a hard time looking up the atricle. Look at the left side. Under Human Health Hit the Health News Sorry I did not put that in before.

OKbirdwatcherat 23:23

Nova at 19:01

I think it was late summer, a news release re: Hormel Bejing producing organic pork. Not sure if Wal-Mart would sell it, but stands to reason. Someone correct me if this is wrong.

I’m seeing more and more organic products at our WM. Pasta and canned beans come to mind and I know there are others I can’t remember right now.

As far as labels are concerned, I don’t think they mean much anymore. Unless specifically stated, we don’t really know where a lot of our food comes from. Country of Origin Labeling is currently required by law only on seafood. Unless further delayed, in Sept. 2008 Country of Origin Labeling will be required on beef, lamb, pork and perishable agricultural commodities and peanuts. Tom DVM can explain the games that are/will be played in avoidance of accurate source disclosure.

Leo7 – at 23:53

Dennis C:

Re: Your question regarding blood types. I work with two nurses who are Rh- according to them they lack a protein on their cells that would allow a virus to take hold. What they argue is that the lack of the RH protein makes the outer cell slippery. We tease them alot and hum various versions of twilight zone music but they are serious about this. In fact they get down right agitated, even though most doctors say there isn’t a connection to blood type Rh and disease other than the fetal problem between Rh- mom and Rh+ fetus.

 In the US less than 20% of the population have RH - blood, so they think they’re special and they also state that the delta 32 gene -the one that helped the black plague victims is more likely in this Rh - blood group.  Well, I studied the delta 32 gene research and the authors never name this Rh factor as a connection but just a mutation on a gene. (However this is a genetic survival mechanism for HIV and it’s well documented).  The mutation for Rh- and delta 32 are on seperate genes.  However they do say that around 20% of the population have this whole gene or partial delta 32 mutation and that the mutation is more common in Caucausians.  The gene mutaton and the Rh- factor are in about the same percentage (20) of the population and more common in Caucausians. 

So, while they can’t produce hard research that backs them up, they believe it all the same.

These nurses are called on the job to go down and give blood, and that’s never happened to me or anyone else I work with who give blood. Rh - blood of all types is best for emergencies with the gold standard as O - the universal donor. They can give blood to others but they can’t accept positive blood although there is a trend to try it on older females and males due to blood supply issues. You will have to make up your own mind on this because it’s the RH - people driving the question about the relationship of blood type by Rh not ABO and disease.

I found one map that lists blood types per country, but I have seen better but can’t find them now. This one is very simple.

http://tinyurl.com/f7zdc

05 November 2006

tjclaw1 – at 00:11

Interesting theory on blood types. One sister is O- and she’s the sickliest of us. Other sis is A-, as is her only son. I’m A- with 1 A- child and 1 A+ child. The two of us that are A- are constantly sick, and A- daughter was confirmed with type A influenza a couple years ago, so while I wish it were true that we don’t get A influenza viruses, it just aint so.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 00:15

Grandma good to see you out and about on the boards!

Spirit in the Wind – at 00:47

gharris – at 22:48 Spirit in the Wind@ 21.01 So what’s with the damn chicken over Lake Ontario on that map link???

It’s low path bird flu. If you click on the icon, it will explain the location, date, time and severity of the even. Or, you can scroll down to see the details.

Chickens are not a good thing to see. The even is actually in NY State.

Anon, Too: sounds like quite the pattern. The X Y relationship has occured during past pandemics which is quite disturbing.

Spirit in the Wind

Many Cats – at 01:39

Anon, too at 21:45

I seem to have missed this discussion. Since you are “anonymous”, can you not risk telling us what the “X” and “Y” might be? If we are willing to entertain the idea that solar activity may be affecting pandemic incidence, it is an indication that we are willing to examine all possibilities as long as there is a hint of plausibility. If you were to say that “plants talk to each other” you would likely be called crazy. That is until you could show that one plant which was attacked by insects released airborne chemicals that could be sensed by another plant which then increased its production of compounds that the insects would find unpalatable. The idea of sending images from one place to another through the air (i.e. television) is even more ridculous on its face. That does not mean it should be dismissed outright. I think those on the boards may be less hostile than you think. Everyone is looking for whatever edge we may be able to get in narrowing down the “when” in this case. Please consider sharing your parameters for those willing to look past the superficial implausibility.

Reconscout – at 08:13

Recently I had a conversation with an aquaintance of mine who is in the Nation Guard medical service corps of one of the states.I intend to protect his identity so I will not be more specific.He told me that about six months ago he was in a briefing on bird flu in which the possibility was mentioned that whole cities might have to be quarantined-no one allowed to leave.He said that he was too far down the totem pole to be in on any planning so that he knew nothing about what criteria would be used to trigger such an action.One thing he did say,however,was that he has been assigned to a reaction team whose purpose is to check out specific reported outbreaks.His one comment on warning signs was”If I suddenly disappear you will know something is up.”Six months ago would be shortly after the first reports of limited H2H transfer.I note that the military is setting up its own warning net rather than rely entirely on local health departments.All this is old news and is on the rumor thread because the source is unidentified but it does fit in well with what has elsewhere been reported.

lady biker – at 08:26

I don’t know where else to post this , so I will put it here . Last night I got some real eye opening and scary information . I was watching a specific channel on television and several people were talking . I won’t name any names of the group. but this was like a two hr. show. and they specifically said that they were just waiting for something like a national emergency or a pandamic and then they will take over what ever part of the United States that they want to controll. Apparently these people are all over the world and growing stronger all the time. It scared me because I’ve heard a lot about these people before and they can be ruthless. So while we are trying to survive, there are others out there making other plans. something to think about.

Pixie – at 08:31

Reconscout - at 8:13

The National Guard and military know they will have to take charge because the local public health people simply have not. It is from the military that we are hearing the term “community shielding.” Either a community becomes pro-active and can shield itself, or it becomes a problem and a source of unrest and infection and then everyone else will need to be “shielded” from that community.

tjclaw1 – at 08:39

lady biker – at 08:26 Why not name the channel, show, and people? If they’re brave enough to go on national TV, they don’t care to keep their identity private. Who sponsored the show? I did see a show recently about the Taliban and the comments that were made by them was pretty frightening. Basically blamed all U.S. citizens for electing our president, and said all deserved to die.

There will always be people who try to take advantage of a situation, but in the case of a pandemic, many of those people will be dead.

crfullmoon – at 08:41

Reconscout – at 08:13, thanks for passing that along. (sigh)

Newsie – at 08:42

Lady Biker - you were watching this on TV and yet you won’t name names? That has got to be the silliest thing I have ever heard. If you saw something on TV where people said they were poised to take over a part of the country, why wouldn’t you explain it in further detail?

I have to tell you that I think you are pulling our legs here.

Nova – at 08:58

Newsie at 8:42 - Yep, those were my thoughts exactly. Some things just make no sense…

Reconscout – at 08:59

Newsie,I think Lady Biker just dosen`t want to give them any more publicity.She does,however, want to point out the problem they represent.

JWB – at 09:26

Perhaps Ladybiker wasn’t watching TV. She was watching a 2 hour skinhead propanda tape/DVD?

Just a thought.

JWB – at 09:28

I wush I kould spel bettar!

8-D

The Captain – at 09:38

http://visz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/woalert_read.php?id=8231&cat=dis&lang=eng

Please define a mild, mostly harmless strain of H5N1. Thanks!

Influentia2 – at 09:39

Thanks for clearing that up JWB 9:26, I thought it may have been a “Pinky and the Brain” marathon.

JWB – at 09:45

Influentia2 – at 09:39

LOL

Green Mom – at 09:50

JWB- maybe they are right-wing pandas that are going to take over? Then it would be a two hour pro-panda program. (Sorry, couldn’t resist….:-))

Influentia2 – at 10:05

The Captain 9:38

http://tinyurl.com/yyls4p

Niagra County is mentioned on this thread and there is a link on the first post that may or may not help you out. If you post there MaMa Bird may see it and help you with an answer. Worth a try. Sorry I cannot be of much help.

Bird Guano – at 10:36

There are several groups who are poised to “take over” in their minds.

Only a couple have their own media resources.

Telemundo and AlJazeera come to mind.

I don’t think the neo-nazi’s have their own network yet, but I may be wrong.

JWB – at 10:51

Not a rumor, not flu related. But interesting.

In light of Saddam’s verdict today….this is in my ‘old’ backyard….

http://tinyurl.com/y977ow

JWB – at 10:56

Holy cow!

They just changed the news site.

I have the old old up still and saved it.

It use to say PITTSBURGH — Investigators said two local college students of Middle Eastern descent ‘’ were caught trying to break into Heinz Field overnight around 2:30 a.m.

According to authorities, the two Carnegie Mellon University students tried to climb the walls around the stadium, but were caught on surveillance by two security guards who work at the field.’‘

I’m not joking!

crfullmoon – at 10:59

Don’t think you’re joking. I didn’t see it, but their names are still there. Suppose media is trying to keep the (few un-law-abiding members of the)public from harrassing (the mostly)law-abiding people of middle-eastern descent here.

JWB – at 11:04

There was more on TV early about suspcious packages but ‘poof’ nothing on that anymore anywhere!

gardner – at 11:09

The names of the two students sound Indian, not Middle Eastern. Maybe that’s why they changed the article.

Just posted this, but it disappeared. grr.

Meserole in FL – at 11:28

I’m 100% sure that if the students had been “of Irish descent” or “of Italian descent” or whatever, their ethnicity would never have been mentioned and the incident would have been passed off as your typical college student prank… which is probably exactly what it was.

lady biker – at 11:29

yup guys I was watching television , it was one of the History channels, all I remember is the H in the corner of the screen. and the reason I didn’t want to name names is because these people are every where and really a lot around here……but they are called the skinheads……I didn’t put this here to cause trouble I was just scared about what they said about a pandamic. sorry if I messeed up…..they even have their own paper……the guy’s name was Tom Metzger that they were interviewing……..was all down right scary..they have lots of websites that are frightening……

Nimbus – at 12:12

You can check out the hate groups that are active in your area here:

http://tolerance.org/maps/hate/index.html

And here’s a little more information on Metzger - I have to think these extremists are being watched closely at all times.

http://www.adl.org/learn/ext_us/Metzger.asp

Spirit in the Wind – at 13:10

Lady biker, I can’t see where your comments would cause trouble, a little confusion maybe but not trouble. Take comfort in the fact that no matter what their “plans” are, H5N1 will make quick work of them unless they have some kind of magic bullet that will protect them in an outbreak. Hate groups will be more of a threat post pandemic, although they are not to be overlooked through out the entire event, they will sicken and die along with other people that expose themselves by being out in public.

tjclaw1 – at 13:37

I was surprised to see how many hate groups are in my state. I knew of Matt Hale, who has spent a lot of time trying to get his law license here. We have more problems with gangs and meth than with hate groups.

Gary – at 14:02

I would like to amen what Spirit in the Wind 13:10 said, and add that unless these guys have some large source of gas and maybe electricity they will have to do their macho takeover on bicycles after they recover from the flu, of course, and find something to eat, and get some water that won’t make them sick, and wait until spring so they can pedal their bikes without slipping on the snow, and find out if any of their buddies survived the flu, and… I think I’ve made my point. They are in for a whole lot more than they have any idea of.

diana – at 14:07

Nova. They didn’t say. What was mentioned was that products you buy closer to home would be best simply on account of freshness, less loss of vitamins and nutrients. When discussing Organic Beef, it was mentioned that grass fed beef has a different effect on our bodies than beef fattened in the lots. When they mentioned Walmart, their concern was that in cutting costs and squeezing suppliers profit margins they will cut out American suppliers and turn to China where polluted water is a problem. Tasting shrimp, one seems to taste chlorine, which some places use to cut down bacteria. I also have heard its a good thing to take chlorella, an algea, before eating tuna. It helps you excrete mercury. The arcane things one learns accidently.If staying in place means you’ll be eating a lot of albacore white tuna might be a good thing to also stock up on the chlorella algea.

JWB – at 15:00

Green Mom – at 09:50

8-D


Meserole in FL – at 11:28

I’m 100% sure that if the students had been “of Irish descent” or “of Italian descent” or whatever, their ethnicity would never have been mentioned and the incident would have been passed off as your typical college student prank… which is probably exactly what it was.

If we were at war with the Irish terrorist that England had to deal with for so long, I’m sure they would mention that they were Irish. PC can get you killed. It is what it is. Islamic fundamentalism. I work with many Muslims, the are great people and great engineers. They aren’t exactly thrilled at the present status quo either. And as far as being a prank, and in light of the threats of last week against NFL games, well , what can I say? If they are that stupid, they deserve to be in jail.

DennisCat 15:22

Meserole in FL – at 11:28

A “college prank” is something like putting saran wrap on the toilet or mixing salt in with the sugar at the table or soap in the fountain. Breaking and entering is not a “college student prank”. It is a crime. It does not matter who does it. It is a crime.

gardner – at 15:56

Can we get back to bird flu?

And can someone tell me why the thought of a pandemic is less depressing than all the hatred spewed back and forth in the world?

Meserole in FL – at 17:27

DennisC at 15:22 and JWB at 15:00

This is not the right forum for this discussion, but I will say this: I work in a large university, my third one in 20+ years. I’ve seen worse college pranks than the one outlined above. I don’t deny that it’s a crime, by the way. I never said they should be exempt from prosecution.

By the way, I’m about as far from PC as it’s possible to be. I just don’t like racial profiling; it’s a practice that is far too likely to harm the innocent. If we can’t find the Bad Guys using the many bona fide/legal/moral tools at our disposal, we are in deep trouble.

That’s all I will say about that. Back to bird flu/pandemic. It poses a much greater threat to our well-being than anything else on the horizon right now, in my opinion.

JWB – at 17:31

Meserole in FL – at 17:27

Agreed.

On the fence and leaning – at 18:14

Gardner: 15:56 And can someone tell me why the thought of a pandemic is less depressing than all the hatred spewed back and forth in the world?

Maybe it’s because bird flu doesn’t care who/what you are. You get a fair shake from it. Hate groups…not so much.

Green Mom – at 18:14

Gardener-For me pandemic is less depressing than hatred because you can’t control a pandemic-its a force of nature coming at you and you do the best you can.

Hatred could/should be preventable. I know we all have different points of view, but people should be able to get along better than they do-they just don’t.

DennisCat 18:31

Meserole in FL – at 17:27

I have been teaching at universities for 35 years. You should not justify someone’s actions because someone else does worst things. It does not matter a person’s background - a crime is a crime. Notice I said nothing about any race or racial profiling- that was you and others. But since you seem to want to go that direction, one’s race or someone else’s actions are not justifications for anyone’s action. Notice I also did not say anything about the “correctness” of the newspaper talking about race in the article you are complaining about. The fact remains a crime is a crime and it does not matter if other students do worst things or what the student’s sex, age, race….. I will not condone crime by anyone at my school.

The point for me is that some college students do not respect security boundaries and it would lead me to doubt that college quarantines (example: in case of a pandemic) would work.

Nova – at 19:09

I apologize in advance if I ruffle any feathers (pun intended) with my following comments:

First of all Lady Biker did introduce the topic of terrorism as it directly related to Bird Flu.

Secondly, I apologize for my disrespectful comment in response to yours, Lady Biker. You are well-enough established on this site I should have accepted you had reasons to be vague with the info in your posting.

Thirdly, I personally believe that bird flu and terrorism are equal threats to humanity. The powers that be in each category try to explain to whomever will listen that it is a matter of when, not if.

Lastly, I fear that the two horrors are likely to intersect in a devastating manner. If the terrorist threats are accomplished first it will so undermine the infrastructure that any hope of coping with the panflu event will be practically hopeless. If the panflu strikes first the terrorists WILL take advantage of the situation in any manner they can…especially those factions that hold little value for their own lives.

I realize this is a BF site. But this IS the rumors thread and all that might possibly impact our coping with it I think is fair to discuss.

For anyone who might want to understand where my extreme dread of terrorism is based just Google “American Hiroshima”. It might not happen this year, but it will happen. Panflu may not happen this year, but it will happen. Knowledge is power.

Nova – at 19:24

PS. And the “American Hiroshima” threat is only the tip of the potential terrorist events that the world should be concerned about.

This, of course, is NOT just my humble opinion…

Nova – at 19:25

PPS: My “all caps” comments are not meant to be shouting…I’m just not sure how to bold my words here. Sorry.

Meserole in FL – at 19:45

Ok, this is my last post on this subject, because it really has no place on a pandemic website.

I never said that it was “ok” for college students to commit crimes, or that they should not be prosecuted for any crimes they commit. I think they should be prosecuted; it’s a great learning experience for them. I said that they DO commit crimes and those crimes are commonly referred to as pranks and overlooked by the authorities unless they go too far… which is wholly subjective, but that’s another story altogether.

More importantly, students of ALL races and ethnicities commit these pranks/crimes, but you never see mention of their race/ethnicity if they are regular Irish-Americans or Polish-Americans or whatever. It just doesn’t happen. If they are middle-eastern students, however, ethnicity suddenly matters. Do I find this objectionable? Yes, you bet I do. (For the record, I am Irish-American - if that matters.)

Anyone who knows their history should understand how dangerous racial profiling is. In the end, it’s too often the innocents who pay the price. Ask any African American - or perhaps a Japanese-American citizen who lost everything when we interned his entire family and seized his assets during WWII. (And never returned them.) Ask a Native American how racial profiling has impacted his life and that of his family. Many people are unaware that the authorities also harassed German-Americans and Italian-Americans during WWII. Honestly, the list is endless. Racial profiling is unacceptable. It’s anti-American.

Many Cats – at 19:48

Shout out to Anon,too from Nov. 4 at 21:45:

Please enlighten us as to your “X” and “Y” parameters. Most of us would be appreciative of such a disclosure. Also, could you please expound upon your timeline when you say an “event” occurs within “weeks to months” after an XY intersection. How many “months” are you using to define the cut-off point? Thanks!

anon for this one – at 19:52

Meserole in FL: It is my understanding that those Japanese and/or Japanese Americans who were interred were the ones who refused to renounce allegiance to the emperor. That makes a big difference in my book.

crfullmoon – at 20:04

I wasn’t alive then, but,

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_American_internment …”President Franklin D. Roosevelt authorized the internment with Executive Order 9066, which allowed local military commanders to designate “military areas” as “exclusion zones”, from which “any or all persons may be excluded.” Twelve days later, this power was used to declare that all people of Japanese ancestry were excluded from the entire Pacific coast, including all of California and most of Oregon and Washington.”…

…”Some Japanese Americans did question their American loyalties after the government removed them and their families from their homes and held them in internment camps, although such cases were isolated incidents”…

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_Canadian_internment (well, the Canadian history was my something new for the day…)

Back to pandemic influenza rumors now…

DennisCat 20:04

Nova – at 19:25

to bold, use three ‘ s (apostrophe) before and three ‘ s after.

cottontop – at 20:06

Geeze, I’m glad I missed this conversation!

Going out to anyone: I spotted an article yesterday, about the ministeries in China refuting the rumor of a new bird flu strain, and I believe they were talking about the “Fuijian flu named strain.” Did anyone happen to catch that? I do not recall were I read it.

Bird Guano – at 20:11

I believe I saw a thread on it here.

Probably buried by now in the noise.

Yes they refuted the Fuijian strain as new and novel.

gardner – at 20:14

anon for this one – at 19:52 It is my understanding that those Japanese and/or Japanese Americans who were interred were the ones who refused to renounce allegiance to the emperor. That makes a big difference in my book.

nope, all people of Japanese descent were sent to the camps, iirc.

cottontop – at 20:19

Bird Guano @ 20:11-

It probably isn’t new to them, but it is news to us.

Nova – at 20:21

This is a test of my new bolding knowledge per DennisC’s instruction. If I screw it up, please try to help me again. Thanks!

Bold Test

DennisCat 20:24

It is interesting to notice that delta-32 in the CCR5 gene (chemokine receptor 5)is known to have protected some from things like AIDS, the Black Death, smallpox and other viral agents. This gene is found in up to 20% of Europeans but is rare in Africans and Asians. It is possible that genetic background could play a part in H5N1 and its spread. Some government might make a decision to quarantine based on genetics.

Please do not try to read your thoughts into my words- I am not advocating such an action. My only point is that genetics can be important in H5N1 spread (see yesterday’s WHO report) and someone could quarantine nations or individual based on that.

cottontop – at 20:33

DennisC-

I read that article, and found it not only interesting, but scary, as that ran through my mind too. I’m glad I’m not the only one who thought that.

gardner – at 20:36

Nova, nice bolding! You can also do italics by putting two apostrophes in front and behind words.

Nova – at 20:42

Thanks!

Meserole in FL – at 21:08

DennisC at 20:24

That’s interesting about the delta-32 in the CCR5 gene. Does the fact that Europeans have lived through so many plagues have anything to do with it? (Or did those plagues also strike the rest of the world?)

I was watching Dr. Brilliant’s (is that his real name??) interview on Google.org and he noted that people with HIV are actually less likely to be killed by H5N1 because their immune systems are compromised, thus a cytokine storm is not going to happen.

I also read somewhere recently (not sure if it was here on FluWiki) that people with Rh negative blood types have a higher natural immunity to H5N1 than people with positive blood types. I’m not sure how accurate that theory is, but it’s noteworthy.

Looking at the Big Picture, it’s interesting in and of itself that the various authorities (medical) are discussing natural immunities to H5N1. It’s almost as though they’re trying to find a comfortable good news-bad news viewpoint that is fit for public consumption. (Maybe I’m reading too much into it.)

DennisCat 21:25

Meserole in FL – at 21:08 “lived through so many plagues”

Yes, they think that the Black Death “selected” for the delta 32 geane. Those that inherit the gene from both parents seem to be immune to HIV/AIDS. They just don’t have a binding site for the virus.

As I understand it (big gap here), the Black Death hit most of the world but some villages in Europe (example Eyam in the UK) had a higher genetic concentration of the gene and were partly spared. Some trace it to Eyam’s quarantine but it seems like the village now has a higher than normal Delta 32 genes. To be “balanced” some people at Scripps lab question the result.

I am not sure what the binding site of a future H5N1 H2H will be. (So Delta 32 may not mean much to an unknown H5N1 but some other gene might) But the recent WHO claims of genetic links in Indo makes one wonder. It sure would be nice if we could just get a blood test and know what our personal risks were. If would at least effect my PPF.

cottontop – at 21:35

Meserole in Fl-

That is an interestering comment about the Europeans having lives through so many plauges. To my understanding, Rome and Greece went through pandemics, and being that the Romans established Londiniun (present day London),many of our descendants cames from there. So all of these people, lived with pandemics.

Meserole in FL – at 21:38

DennisC at 21:25

Re: natural immunity

My grandmother grew up in Montreal and was born in 1906. Before she died (just 4 years ago) she told me stories of the Spanish Flu and how people would hang white sheets outside of their windows to signify either the flu or a dead body; she couldn’t remember which it was. She also noted that although the flu struck the neighborhood hard and many died, nobody in her family (14 children!) ever caught the flu. She always wondered why that was because they didn’t take any special precautions… and now I’m wondering too.

DennisCat 21:44

Meserole in FL – at 21:38

Do people in your (genetic) family often get the flu? Just curious - you can ignore the Q if you want. A study of such families would make someone a very good Master’s project.

Olymom – at 21:54

But grandma might have had some things in her diet that helped — Russian or Indian families that drank a lot of tea, an Italian family that ate tons of tomatoes, a French family that had wine (kids too) that was loaded with revesteral — or family habits (hand washing?) that made a big difference.

DennisCat 22:00

OH yes, I don’t ever remember anyone in my family ever getting the flu. But I do get flu shots. I am part Chickasaw, but my two grand parent met at Ft. Dix tent city in 1918 during the pandemic. They were workers not patients. On my “English” side, my ansestors ran the hospitals during the Crusades and were exposed to who knows what. On the Chickasaw side my family was part of the few Chickasaw that survived the “pox” in Miss.

But the point is: I never remember dad (or even mom), (nor any uncles/aunts on my father’s side) sister or brother getting the flu. In fact I have never missed a day of work from colds or flus for 30+ years. Strep- yes, Flu - no. …. oh yes, type B- It most likely means nothing but it is interesting.

tjclaw1 – at 22:07

Interesting question. My husband’s grandmother was born in 1919, one of 15 children. To my knowledge, none of them got the Spanish Flu, although several were born after the Spanish Flu. I never remember grandma being sick - ever. Eight of them are still living, but I never see them. Grandma had 9 children, all still living and, again, I don’t recall ever seeing any of them sick with the flu. I’ll ask my mother-in-law about it and report back.

janetn – at 22:20

If genetics does in fact play a part in who is susseptable to H5 could this information be used to come up with a tx, or is that to far out into the future.

cottontop – at 22:24

My friend was telling me that her grandmother had 8 kids, 4 boys, and 4 girls. All 4 boys caught the flu and died. Not one girl got sick. I found that in itself interesting.

cottontop – at 22:27

correction, that should read greatgrandmother.

Meserole in FL – at 22:29

DennisC – at 21:44

Interesting question. I hadn’t thought about it before, but the answer is no. Both grandmothers lived to their mid-90′s. (One died just 5 months ago.) Both were alive during the 1918 flu epidemic - one in Montreal and the other in Ireland. Nobody in either of their families caught it. I can’t remember anyone in the family ever complaining of getting the flu, at least any serious type like in 1957 or 1968.

Olymom – at 21:54

I think you’re absolutely right. Both grandmothers drank tea by the gallon, and both ate very simple, unprocessed, wholesome food. Also, both liked a tipple now and again - scotch or sherry - and made no apologies for it. Both had all of their marbles till the day they died. I guess I could learn a lesson from them - and maybe throw away the Hostess cupcakes? (Nah… forget it!)

Meserole in FL – at 22:43

cottontop – at 22:27

All of the boys caught it and died, but the girls were apparently immune? Add that piece of info to the family cluster situation in Indonesia and it makes you wonder just how random the attack rate really is, doesn’t it? Clearly we’re missing some important pieces of the influenza/pandemic puzzle. Maybe school children in 100+ years will laugh about our lack of understanding of the flu and our amateur policies/preventions - and equate them to wearing a necklace of garlic to ward off the plague?

DennisCat 22:43

I am not sure if an “immunity” from H1N1 (Spanish) flu would help against H5N1. They do have the same “N” but that is mostly the virus “release” mechanism. The “H” is more about the binding to cells in humans. That is part of the problem. There really hasn’t been much “selection” of people with H5 resistance. A lot of the seasonal flu is an H1 type flu and most of our vaccines have one of those types “covered”.

However, if there are genetic modifications that shield people from AIDS, smallpox, Black death, and perhaps H1N1 flu types then perhaps (just perhaps) there will be some modification that would help against H5N1. However, most of the genetic modification is due to changes in the binding sites. So if you didn’t have the modification you would have binding sites for the virus and I don’t know how you could remove the binding sites. I think the question would be best addressed by NS1 (are you out there tonight?)

cottontop – at 22:46

Meserole in FL-

If you do throw away those cupcakes, I’ll take them!

My great grandmother was born in 1899. I don’t recall her sharing any memories about the pandemic in 1918, like she did with the Great Depression. However I don’t recall her ever being sick either. She lived to be 94. She had a simple diet, one cup of coffee in the morning, and no “drink”, and did not smoke. I don’t recall any of her syblings having died. She was of Dutch descent.

06 November 2006

anon mc – at 01:05

Dennis C: Even if “they” were to quarantine based on genetics, I would not feel any much safer in a room where 80% of people were susceptible as opposed to being in a room where 100% of the people were susceptible.

DeLucaat 01:24

My grandfather and his whole family were living in Philadelphia during the “Spanish Flu”-the only member who got the flu was an in-law. All of the family were recent Italian immigrants including the young man that died but he was the only non-blood related family member. My grandfather dug mass graves at the Catholic cemetary and even with this exposure, he never caught influenza. My dad, who is in his mid-eighties has never had flu and the one time I innoculated him with flu vaccine, I nearly killed him. He had a terrible reaction (he is not allergic to eggs) and swears that the vaccine is created to kill off the old folks and save social security money…I didn’t say he wasn’t paranoid.

anonymous – at 12:38

My parents were European. Were young adults during the flu of 1918. Never heard a word about it. Father and mother were the picture of good health as I am also and my silblings. Of all the family I was the sickly one, who came down with this ,that ,and the other thing but with resiliance to spring back quickly. Kept their wits into advanced old age looking and behaving at least 20 years younger than their chronological age. My oldest sibling, near 90 is talking about driving around the entire country, sort of a farewell tour if he can persuade someone to be his companion. (not volunteering myself)

anonymous – at 12:42

They ate exactly whatever they wanted, fat, bacon by the carload. The only restriction in their diets was sugar. It was there but no soda, little in the way of sweets outside of fruits.

crfullmoon – at 12:44

She was of Dutch descent -like, ;-) the ones who know the good citizens because they were out washing their front stoops every morning, cottontop?

07 November 2006

cottontop – at 09:56

crfullmoon- you know it!

Nann- please elabrate on your comment about the announcement from the U.S. government concerning bird flu.

Dennis in Colorado – at 10:13

anon for this one – at 19:52 It is my understanding that those Japanese and/or Japanese Americans who were interred were the ones who refused to renounce allegiance to the emperor.

Your understanding is incorrect. Executive Order 9066 authorized internment of those with “foreign enemy ancestry.” No mention was made of allegiance to the emperor.

InKyat 10:34

I note today that 60,000 Americans in Hong Kong have been warned to stockpile for three months in case of pandemic flu.

Nann posted this on the moderators’ thread:

“Has anyone here, heard that the government is going to be revealing new information after today ( election day )..? I was called last night by a relative who is a doctor, as well as a sisiter in law who works the ICU at a local hospital, saying such a thing is going to happen. They were all warned yesterday. The USA Govt. does not want to say this info before voting day. I was warned by the doctor / relative to start preparing Now…and to say nothing about this as well, but thought you might all want to know.”

One would like to think that Americans in America might be at least as well informed as Americans in Hong Kong. Maybe tomorrow ;-). Just in case such a thing might actually happen, I pushed two last Internet orders to the top of the agenda today.

Average Concerned Mom – at 10:41

the only funny thing about nann’s posted rumor that comes to my mind is, doctors and nurses in hospitals in general don’t seem to have been all that informed about pandemic influenza in the past — it seems like most hospitals are only just now getting up a little bit to speed, and certainly they aren’t holding big meetings with their employees. I could be wrong. And maybe in certain areas hospitals are more prepared. Would love to hear more on this, nann, or anyone!

TreasureIslandGalat 11:29

All US consulates were sent a cable to prep for 3 months. Rest of American public will be informed of new “3-week” prepping recommendations after voting is over…so on Wednesday.

Also, Niman commented that 3 changes have been noted on newest sequences released by China. All 3 are at or near the “binding domain”, possibly indicating an increased affinity for human cells, increasing ability to go H-H.

Many countries jumping onboard now with increased possibilities that the pandemic could start this season.

JR – at 11:39

TIGal, where did you hear that the American public will be told to prep for 3 weeks (if there’s a link I’d love to copy that info out to some people)? Also, did all US consulates get the 3-month prepping cable, or just those in HK & Macau?

Are we there yet – at 11:44

Hi TreasureIslandGal – at 11:29

I just sent an email to a friend at a US embassy overseas who is their medical officer and am waiting to hear back. Where did you hear about this cable?

TreasureIslandGalat 11:51

It has been reported through numerous news outlets already. The CE site lists a bunch of them. At that site it also mentions that the info will go out to the rest of america, but they are waiting until after elections are over. I saw no news clip though, so that is why it is in teh “rumors” section. Go to this site to view the actual cable sent. In the cable itself they even say it went out to everyone:

http://hongkong.usconsulate.gov/ci_avian_2006110301.html

JR – at 12:20

Thanks for the cable - and yep, looks like everyone will be getting it. I can’t imagine how overwhelming it would be to get something like that out of the blue and have to figure out how to do it quickly. It took me a long time to get 3 months of supplies put together.

Hope they come out with the 3-week supply warning to America a lot more strongly than did with the 3-day and 2-week ones - which most people apparently have chosen to ignore (my own relatives included).

libbyalex – at 12:32

JR @ 12:20 — do you mean 3-week supply warning to Americans or a 3 month warning?

crfullmoon – at 12:37

Good enough for the embassy-dwellers, it’s good enough for the American public… public would like to feed their kids for more than 3 weeks, too…

JR – at 12:42

TreasureIslandGal at 11:29 said is was a 3-week supply warning. However, she heard about this at CE so it’s to be considered just a rumor at this point.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 12:48

Thanks Commonground….I couldn’t get back over here fast enough with the snippet to post before you did — I’m watching my pressure canner while reading the threads and had to go change the heat level! :-)

Bird Guano – at 13:10

JR – at 12:42

TreasureIslandGal at 11:29 said is was a 3-week supply warning. However, she heard about this at CE so it’s to be considered just a rumor at this point.


Not just a rumor.

There is a URL at the CE discussion.

JR – at 13:24

Bird Guano, after a lot of searching I still don’t see it. Can you let me know which discussion topic to look at? Thanks.

JWB – at 13:39

Well, that cable sure sounds like the starting gun to me!

To anybody that hasn’t prepped yet, GOOD LUCK!

TreasureIslandGalat 13:40

JR… it is a 3-month warning, not 3-week. Sorry, I typed wrong! It actually states to prepare for 12 weeks, which is the same as 3 months.

I CALLED THE CDC to ask very casually if they knew anything about the new directive and whether the suggested prep-time will be increased for Americans at home here as well. The guy I spoke with sounded a bit suprised/alarmed at the 3-month cable I told him about. He put me on hold while he could go check on that. I was on hold for a while then he came back and told me to “check the Pandemic.gov site for the most up to date info”. I told him that I did just check that, and that is why I was calling, because it was still only saying to prep for 2 weeks. So I asked “which should it really be, the 3-months they are telling our consulates or the 2 weeks they are telling Americans here at home? -that’s a big difference afterall.”

He agreed and asked if he could put me on hold again. He was gone even longer this 2nd time I was put on hold. When he came back on the phone, he took a deep breath and again said, as if directed “the most recent guidance will be found on the pandemic.gov site. That site should be the one you check for all the most recent up to date information.” He then asked me “is that ok?” -like as if he was saying “was that a good enough answer for you right now?”

I laughed and said, “so, I should keep checking back at it then huh?” -and he said “yes”, in a relieved manner, probably glad I didn’t try to argue with him or make him say something he was not authorized to divulge…yet.

diana – at 13:57

Dmitry Lvov, the director of virology reasarch @ the Russian Acadamy of Medical Sciences says that one amino acid replacement in the genome remains to make the virus transferable from human to human…. I’m bad at this… http://en.rian.ru/russia/20060307/439893897.html

JR – at 14:05

Wow, TIGal, it sounds like you really caught that guy off guard. I wonder whether he knows something’s up but didn’t expect to be fielding questions about it so soon - or if he really didn’t know about the cable going out until you told him. Hmmm.

Anyway, I want to make sure I’ve got this whole thing straight. After the election, it will also be announced to the American public that they must put away 3 months of supplies. Is that right? Can you point me to where this was discussed at CE? I’ve looked for awhile now - but it must not be in an obvious place or else I just missed it somehow. If this is true, I will be absolutely stunned.

Treyfish – at 14:16

hahaha!TIG has got him all flustered!Hmmm is that good or bad?Does’nt want to say much does he?

Treyfish – at 14:18

hahaha!TIG has got him all flustered!Hmmm is that good or bad?Does’nt want to say much does he?

Closed and Continued - Bronco Bill – at 14:22

This thread has suddenly gotten very long (I just don’t understand why?!?), so closing and continuing it here

It’s rumored that there are no posts to copy over. ;-)

Oremus – at 14:26

He’s probably thinking, “shoot, I haven’t even started on the two-week preps”

JWB – at 14:32

OK. Let’s just think this through a little. IF they were to announce this after the elections, (after today), what would be the likely events?

I’m guessing late Friday for the announcement. We should see extra trucks at the big box stores this week prior to the GET YOUR STUFF NOW weekend crush. Employees would be asked to come in on what would have been their days/time off.

So, that said, does anybody here know any managers at the big box stores? Any unusall schedules for this weekend?

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.NewRumorsXI
Page last modified on November 07, 2006, at 02:32 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Chicago Area Preparedness

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Chicago Area Preparedness

02 March 2006

Cache Cow – at 10:47

Hello fellow Fluwikites. I noticed an increase in postings from people in the Chicago area and thought we should have our own forum as opposed to one for Illinois in general. I live downtown and have several issues I’d like to discuss including civil unrest. I hope this forum prooves helpful for all of us.

Sonny – at 13:22

Northwest---near O’hare

Quartzman – at 13:28

Is Elgin considered part of Chicago? ;)

As a former Chicagoan.. I’d say no, but my wife works in that beast and my Ma and both sisters live up on the North-side.

Felicia – at 16:35

I’m Evanston and so is Jane

03 March 2006

Cache Cow – at 08:52

If schedules would permit, I’d love for us to get together for coffee maybe one Sat. morning to kick around ideas and get to know each other better. All would be welcome - including folks from Elgin!

Just an idea at this point, but if anyone else is interested, please let me know.

24 April 2006

Ricewiki – at 18:59

When I was in Chicago recently I noticed there are plenty of “warning advertisements” on the El — from the mayor, about “being ready” for emergencies — although which emergencies exactly aren’t specified.

But there is a list on there too I think of what sorts of things you should be preparing. Thought it was interesting. Anyone else seen these or similar ones?

26 April 2006

ricewiki – at 15:23

It looks like I might be living in Chicago during the time of the possible pandemic…

Sure would like to discuss with anyone in the city how to survive living in an apartment complex there! (are there any safe parks one could hide away in? what would be the fastest escape route out of the city?)

ricewiki – at 15:24

Cache Cow, did you guys ever get together for that coffee?

ricewiki – at 15:25

If any Chicago preppers want to discuss, feel free to email me at ricewiki at hot mail dot com…

Jane – at 15:35

ricewiki - How long will you be here? Do you want to choose your apartment according ease of escape rather than proximity to work? Or maybe ease of escape AND secure to SIP. Have you considered an apartment in a suburb?

Sorry, I’m not all that familiar with the city to answer your questions. No coffee meeting yet.

anonymous – at 15:36

My mother, brother, and extended family all live in Chicago. The only thing I can think of (living in Alabama) is how the heck I am going to get them out of there and down here once this becomes a pandemic. My mother is a physician and keenly aware of what this might become. My brother is not prepping and she is afraid of leaving him even if it means her/their death. I don’t see how anyone could make it in Chicago during a pandemic (flu spread, food shortage, public unrest, no power, no water, etc.) I would think a place in Wisconsin would be the best for a short trip. Staying in the city is not a good choice.

ricewiki – at 15:41

Jane, I could be there a while… definitely long enough for three waves of a pandemic (well, unless I escape elsewhere) and will probably be right in the city, too. I may be heading down later in the summer, so maybe a coffee meeting then would work.

Are you staying in Evanston? or planning to evacuate elsewhere?

Cache Cow – at 15:42

ricewiki - I am downtown Chicago. We all need to do coffee one Saturday.

Jane – at 15:42

Staying here, for lack of a better place to go.

ricewiki – at 15:51

Cache Cow — yes, for sure.

Everyone — where are some good prep stores in inner/ downtown Chicago? Good dollar stores, army surplus type stores, walmart-type stores, discount grocery stores?

What stores have you used for your preps?

Cache Cow – at 16:03

Costco is always good.

K man – at 16:05

Costco good. Buy a big bag of beans 25lbs for $25. Should make enough for about 50 meals and doesn’t take up that much space. Good source of carbs and protein. Beans and rice is nice.

Felicia – at 23:07

I’m nervous. Evanston is definitely a town with “drive by diversity” and while we pride ourselves on the diversity in our population, we really are a town of “haves” and “have nots”. Ironically though, all the money in the world probably won’t buy you much if you’re not prepared so people with bank accounts will be as much “have nots” if they don’t prepare.

ricewiki – at 23:32

I didn’t like Evanston too much when I was there… no payphones anywhere — like they assume everyone has a cell and that’s it!

27 April 2006

Felicia – at 00:23

Ricewiki, Evanston is awesome - best features of the city and best features of the burbs and only 20 minutes to downtown Chicago. Plus we have the lake which is beautiful and because you have to pay to get on it, there is funding to keep the beaches pristine - we even have a dog beach! But yeah, no payphones. When you’re here, look me up. See my profile.

08 June 2006

ricewiki – at 14:26

Hey everyone in chicago area, how’s the weather down there?

Felicia maybe I’ll take you up on your offer…. I may be heading over late July/early august. email me and we can talk … rice wiki at hot mail dot com.

Anyone else in Chicago? Any newbies or lurkers here from Chicago?

ricewiki – at 14:29

We should start focusing on any plans to divide chicago up into “districts” etc. in the event THSTF… I will have to get to know the major thoroughfares and exit routes…. I don’t suppose there’s any good way to bike to safety somewhere? Any good park to bug-out in if I have to?:) I’m serious…. like I said, I’ll be in an apartment building and that may not be where I choose to SIP.

We should talk about civil unrest in Chicago too. I don’t know which are the worst areas already for crime, etc., but these will get even worse if TSHTF.

tjclaw1 – at 15:50

I’m about 90 miles west of Chicago and I don’t think there’s any way I’d try to take I-88 to flee the city. If you were going that direction, you’d be better off taking the Metro. If I were stuck in the city, I’d probably try to travel north into Wisconsin (perhaps by bicycle?) and then travel west to the more remote areas of SW Wisconsin, NW Illinois.

Here’s a link to Illinois’ bike trails. Looks like you could take the bike path along the lake front, connect with others, all the way to the Wisconsin border. I don’t see any other clear way out of the city. If I were stuck in the city during a disaster, that’s probably what I would do, just to get out of the city, then travel west in WI, and then re-enter IL near Monroe WI, and go south to get home. Just my thoughts.

ricewiki – at 16:06

TJ, Do you have that link? It didn’t post. Thanks. Biking to Wisconsn…. wow, that’s a ways, but somethign I’d consider, but could be dangerous. maybe less dangerous if I did it a bit before TS-officially-HTF.

tjclaw1 – at 16:08

Woops:

http://www.bikelib.org/trails/trailslist.htm

ricewiki – at 16:08

I suppose it could be possible to take the train or the El north a bit before TSHTF, to bug-out. Any possibility there would be borders between states, eg., state-quarantines?

Are there any nice outdoorsy parts in Illinois? I’ve only been to the chicago area. Any campgrounds or other places?

tjclaw1 – at 16:38

I suppose there could be state quaranteens, but I kinda doubt it, and there are so many little roads going between states, it would be almost impossible to enforce.

IMO Northwest IL is the prettiest. Toward the NW corner, lots of state parks, camping, beautiful trees and hills. In Carroll County there is only 1 stoplight in the entire county. Lots of people from Chicago take day trips to Galena to enjoy the scenery and visit small shops.

Here’s a link to state parks: http://www.dnr.state.il.us/lands/landmgt/parks/

There’s more wilderness to the west, and developed campgrounds. As a former Girl Scout (long time ago), I know a lot of the parks well, as well as some of the private camps. Got a few ideas of where we’ll “bug-out” to if we had to, and my picks are not public parks. I also know ways to get around my area descreetely on foot (although with a 2yo and a 5yo, I don’t know how descreet we’d be!) Your biggest problem would be if you’re there during the winter. Too cold to sleep outdoors, but I do know of some state parks that have cabins with heat/fireplaces.

I e-mailed you a little while ago. Let me know what kind of information you want and I can probably find it.

09 June 2006

ricewiki – at 10:20

Cache Cow,

Are you concerned about living in central chicago WTSHTF? I would think NYC is quite a bit more dangerous, and I’ve heard camden NJ is just as bad. If you’re not out wandering out and about, things should be fine shouldn’t they?

gharris – at 10:54

RW - I would think an open air park in dwntwn Chicago would be the very WORST place to SIP!!! If it seems imminent you should get on a train and come straight back to Ontario!!! Shelter in the country near Tom DVM or me!!!!

Quartzman – at 11:29

Chicago can be dangerous as any large metro area… My ma lives in Rogers Park and in the last 2 years 2 neighbors (1 across and 1 above her) have been murdered!

For perspective, we lived in a CHA project from 82 till 97 and never had a neighbor killed… (though that is where I saw that gruesome van… anyway)

Point being, folks aren’t necessarily safe in their homes NOW… but my Ma has good relationships with her neighbors and refuses to move. (Dang Irish pride!)


Depending on how you live, how prepared you are, and how desperate others are - Chicago will be a mixed bag. If I were there now, I’d be planning on bugging out, (and I have a prepper frioend who will be - but he has parents in farming, so it’ll be easier for him than others.)

Quartzman – at 11:30

But in any case - uprooting is always easy said than done.

:(

tjclaw1 – at 12:21

Agree with other comments that you CAN’T bug-out in a park in central Chicago. There are a lot of homeless and transient people in Chicago and it is a dangerous city. Cabrini Green is right downtown in Chicago, where some of the worst of the worst crimes take place: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabrini_Green

Not to scare you, but Chicago is known as the murder capitol of the nation and its crime level is worse than the national average. Here are some crime statistics: http://chicago.areaconnect.com/crime1.htm

How long are you scheduled to be in Chicago?

Ed – at 12:28

I thought that all being prepared in Chicago meant was having a REALLY GOOD ATTORNEY!

Glad I moved to GA, now if my house in Lemont would sell!.

Sorry couldn’t resist. :)

Quartzman – at 12:37

ricewiki – at 16:06

When I lived at Ashland & Lawrence - I was able to bike from there North to the Braeside Metra stop in about 2hours? I doubt there will be any form of mass “bugout” of Chicago.

You have to imagine folks will dribble out as they can but there won’t be any mayor of Chicago that would try slamming down the doors to contain 4 million people overnight. (Though he may take bulldozers to the highways…)


To be fair to my hometown, Cabini is just about gone and that whole area is churning over.

Not that anywhere in a high density city will be safe from “forager/gatherers”, the historically bad areas (where even home-grown folk think twice about driving) is the half-ring around the the mid-south and far west sides of the city.

In there, public transportation is spotty (or ill-run), grocery stores are barely making a comeback, and the average income is near, at, or below poverty.

A horrible combination for what could come.

ricewiki – at 12:47

OK. If TSHTF, I can’t let myself stay in Chicago. But but but…why does this have to be so complicated?!! A train back to Ontario would take 9 hours… if Amtrak even runs. I wish VIA went to the U.S. Besides, who wants to be on a train with other shedding people? Besides, I’d have to get out at the Detroit train station (the worst one I’ve ever been to) and cab it up to the border tunnel. More chances for virus-catching.

I think I’d be safer if 1) I buy myself a car; or 2) try to bug-out in rural Illinois/Wisconsin somewhere or 3) maybe stay with people I meet there.

Re: the murder capital, I thought that was D.C.?

Any other “no-go” areas of Chicago I need to know about? Thanks - I’ll check out this cabini green place…(to stay away from)

tjclaw1 – at 12:55

Ed - I resent the lawyer comment - lol. D.C. has a higher lawyer per capita than Chicago!

Quartzman - you’re probably more familiar with the bad areas than I am as I have never lived in Chicago, just visit frequently. Like the bulldozer comment - likely would use them at O’Hare or Midway in the middle of the night to keep flights out? I’m sure the bulldozers are already at O’Hare with the expansion project. I’m guessing law enforcement will not be good in Chicago during a pandemic and the thugs will take over the streets.

I was in Chicago once for the Independence Day fireworks which, by the way, were spectacular, but the mob of people afterwards on the closed streets, shoulder to shoulder, was truly frightening. I’m just a country girl and the city makes me nervous anyway. Of course, that’s why I opted to go to law school at Valpo rather than any of the Chicago schools.

tjclaw1 – at 13:06

ricewiki,

There are several transportation services that take people in and out of the city. My parents use one to take them to the airport in Chicago all the time. Rates are really not too bad and definitely much cheaper than buying a car.

Another thought, possible the U.S./Canadian border could be closed when TSHTF. You should sit down and come up with 3 or 4 alternatives, maybe more and what events will trigger each plan. i.e. #1 A phase 5 is declared - attempt to go home? How, and where will you go when you get there. #2 Leave City and go to rural area - alternatives for getting out of city and alternatives for where you will stay. #3 SIP if you absolutely can’t get out of the city.

Ed – at 16:40

tjclaw1: lol:

Valpo is a good school/area. I lived in Valpo for 10 years growing up.

Stay safe!..

:)

Felicia – at 22:57

I think this has become somewhat of a silly thread. I live north of Chicago in a “haves” and “haves-not” neighborhood/town - Evanston. I plan on staying put and while it may be dicey, it’s my only choice (no summer home to go to). You either have another option or you don’t. If you don’t you will be in more danger if you just take off for parts unknown and plan on living off the land for 6 months (totally unrealistic). So figure out where you plan on hunkering down and get ready, but please don’t talk about finding a spot in a city park like somehow that is going to be a better alternative! This kind of ill thought out thinking makes our sight look foolish!

Jane – at 23:07

Anyway, it might not happen for a while, and you could have time to make more connections while you’re in school.

I’d like to meet you when you get down here. Let me know when we can all get together.

10 June 2006

Jumping Jack Flash – at 00:02

A max exodus out of Chicago (or any big city) brings to mind the hurricane evacuations of late…I-95 with the south bound lane re routed north w/ stop and go bumper to bumper traffic. Just the Gulf coast or Florida residents end up going as far north as Nashville before they can find a room. That’s JUST the people in the hurricane areas. What if most everyone from every major urban center attempts to bug out??? Most of those people won’t find a place to stay, unless they have a pre arranged relative with preps made for them.

Can you imagine the nightmare NYC, LA, or any big city would be if the power and subsequently the water went out??? 12 million people with no water or sewer or power for weeks or months???!!! I would much rather an asteroid hit us and get it over with.

Paul – at 00:04

Don’t leave out those of us in North West Indiana!

ricewiki – at 00:53

Well that makes me feel glad for contributing my two cents - my planning is already “ill-thought-out thinking” and is making the site look bad? Holy c***. I feel pretty disgusted by this.

tjclaw1 – at 13:44

ricewiki. Your talking about potential plans is not making the site look bad. I think collective thinking is one purpose of the wiki, and if people who live in the region can point out potential problems in your plan and make suggestions, that’s what we’re here for.

Forgot, NW Indiana is also a very nice area. Only problem I see with heading that direction is having to go through Gary, Indiana, and if you don’t know where you’re going, you could get in trouble in some not-so-nice neighborhoods. If I wasn’t getting married and moving back home to Illinois after I graduated from school, I would have stayed in the Valparaiso area - loved it.

Mother of Five – at 14:09

Just a little note, kind of FYI, St. Louis was rated #1 for the highest crime rate per capita in the U.S in 2005, I believe Detroit was second (which usually takes first) and I can’t remember which city was third….

flyer here for johnnystop – at 15:12

Thanks tjclaw -

Mother of Five, that’s good to know! I’ve been through central Detroit and there’s not much to like. I can believe that for sure.

ricewiki – at 15:13

that was me, ricewiki

LMWatBullRunat 15:43

Ricewiki-

I am not a chicago native, but there are two bugout strategies that you should seriously consider.

If TSHTF, you need to “disengage” form the others fleeing the horror that Chicago will become. If heading to home in Ontario, you have three ways to get there, by land, by water or by air.

You have considered some options for land travel, but I seriously recommend that you think about going by boat. Goderich Ontario is about 5–7 days sail from Chicago; you could do it in a small boat with ease. You might also do it in a canoe.

Another thought; If you need to get out of the urban area, consider using the storm sewer system. Chicago has one of the largest storm sewer systems in the world, and as long as it isn’t raining they are excellent highways out of town.

If you are considering a car, get a diesel. They run on vegatable oil and waste frier grease with minor mods, and can run on kerosene or #2 heating oil with no modifications. You have a lot better chance of finding fuel with one of those. Assuming you are buying used, I’d look around for a VW or a Mercedes diesel. Stay away from the 80′s Volvo diesels unless you are a good mechanic. If you are willing to consider a larger vehicle, think about the Dodge pickups with the Cummins turbo diesel engine. These are “million-mile motors” built for heavy commercial use.

Let me know if you want to get into this some more. Email me at LMWatBullRun at yahoo

Jane – at 16:28

Ricewiki, study your student handbook for rules on withdrawing, medical leave, family emergencies, etc. Find out who makes decisions on such things. Maybe talk to some authority (what level, department??) about their pandemic plans, but to be cautious, maybe don’t discuss it with those who would rule on your status, in case you have to fake something.

Above all, the saying “git while the gitting’s good” is a good rule. If you wait until the last minute, you’re risking your life. You have to be alive to have a career.

ricewiki – at 16:29

thanks for the ideas, lmwat… got your email.

ricewiki – at 16:31

Jane,

Yes - I’m planning to. Ombudsmans or others are just for this. Definitely doing it ahead of time.

Felicia – at 16:43

Oh, my. Some of this advice is really bizarre. I agree that if you have a place out of the city you’d be better off going there. And because you have your ear to the ground, your flu radar will go off before the general populace giving you a head start. Please do not descend into the underground sewage system or try and sail across Lake Michigan in a canoe (ocean liner sized craft have gone down in Lake Michigan - it’s nothing to mess with). Find a place to store some gasoline, have a reliable car and get a Gazeteer which will give you incredible detail to find alternate routes between Chicago and our final destination (should there be a cordon sanitaire).

LMWatBullRunat 17:47

Felicia-

three things are clear- You don’t know anything about what big cities undergoing meltdown are like, you know very little about navigating the Great Lakes, and I may not have made the situation under which I’d suggest Ricewiki consider this clear, so I’ll do so now. (Oh, you also clearly do not know the difference between a storm sewer, which carries rain water, and a sanitary sewer, which does not. You can drive a semi-trailer truck in some of Chicago’s storm sewers, let alone walk in them, and they run for MILES, way out into the ‘burbs. New York has similar sewers but many of those are “mixed use” sewers. Not recommended)

I was not suggesting that Ricewiki adopt my suggestions when travelling under normal conditions. I assume that if she wants to visit her folks in Ontario under civilised conditions that she’ll hop a train or a plane or a bus.

I was speaking about what to do if there is massive civil unrest in Chicago- Murder, looting, rape, rioting, arson, all the lovely things we have seen happen before in large cities, and Ricewiki is caught there. Leaving is a good idea, since you almost certainly die if you stay. I hope for Ricewiki’s sake that most of the general populace does what you suggest.

That means that the intelligent folks like her will have a better chance. A woman alone in a car in those conditions is a target and will have no chance of making it to Canada, even if there weren’t border closures, curfew orders, triggerhappy locals shooting anyone they don’t know out of sheer panic, nervous Guard troops doing the same thing, and fuel shortages. Do you know how many people ran out of gas in traffic jams during Katrina? Tens of thousands! FYI New Orleans had less than a million residents. Do you know how big metro Chicago is???

You applied today’s risk calculations to a completely different situation. I am not suggesting that a young woman alone wanting to get home *today* sail across Lake Michigan and Lake Huron to get home; I am suggesting that if TSHTF without warning, and Ricewiki is stuck in and trying to get out of Chicago along with about 2 million other desperate people, that she may want to consider some travel options that MOST of those 2 million folks won’t be sharing.

She wants to go to ONTARIO CANADA from Chicago. How many ways are there to go from Chicago to Ontario without crossing large bodies of water? Unless she wants to detour WAY west and go around Lake Superior, there aren’t any. Given that, the water travel route is a hell of a lot less risky. It also helps with the border crossing problem; Under pandemic conditions I doubt the Canadians are going to let ANYONE close enough to explain why they want to get into Canada. Or do you think she’ll be better off trying to swim the St. Clair river? One way or another, her journey home will probably involve boats anyway, so why shouldn’t she make that work for her? As far as canoes go, the voyageurs were canoeing from Chicago to Montreal and back regularly, and if she plans ahead and gets some basic training she’d have no problem moving by water from Chicago to Goderich, or even as far as Montreal. Moreover, she won’t have to worry about getting sick from interaction with some fellow land traveller if she takes the water route.

Y’know, I tell you what. If you don’t think this would be something you’d want to try, why don’t you try it your way and let me know how it all works out for you, OK?

Medical Maven – at 18:14

Ricewiki: Makes some friends in downstate Illinois, farm country. Make arrangements with them for room and board. Rent a storage cubicle for your preps down there. Consider buying a motorcycle for getting around traffic jams. They get great gas mileage, too. Make sure a tankful will get you to your SIP.

ricewiki – at 21:26

Wowsers. This thread has had me scared, and I’m not usually one to get scared so easily. LMWat, you know, I am currently reading a book about people who have survived on water with nothing but their dingy. Feel free to email me to talk about it further: rice wiki at hot mail dot com. Nevertheless, I can’t see myself doing something like that unless the situation was really dire.

I will definitely be trying to make the right connections once I’m there. Thanks everyone for caring enough to bother suggesting all of this. I’ve lived in major cities before (Toronto/GTA, 5 million) but certainly not quite the size as chicago nor near its crime rate.

two rivers run through chicago — but I doubt these would be safe to canoe on, as I am sure people would be waiting along the canals with guns, eh? well, maybe not. We don’t know. Maybe I can meet someone else with a sailboat for crossing the lake. And, I don’t necessarily need to get back to Ontario. I’d be fine on a farm or in a field or on a campsite. Maybe I should just take out a mortgage and get my own darn place to solve all of this.

LMWatBullRunat 21:54

Medical Maven-

It all depends on what Ricewiki wants to do. If she wants to get home, then that’s her goal. If she just wants to have a place to hole up, that’s a whole different goal.

Downstate friends are a good idea if that’s an option for her. Although I ride, I am not sure whether I’d recommend that a neophyte try to ride a motorbike through a traffic jam…. but it’d mighty handy to ride along railroad tracks. Don’t know whether Ricewiki has any motorcycling experience. Does give you some more options; anywhere a bicycle can go a dirt bike can. You can ride them in storm drains, even. <grin>

Still, the thought of avoiding the whole land route altogether I think is worth some serious thought. No matter how obscure the route, when you have a couple million people in the neighborhood it can get crowded, not to mention the obstacles that the locals will create.

Don’t know where in Ontario she’s thinking about going, but if it is near the Huron shore or the Saint Claire I’d think hard about the water route. It may be farther than downstate, but there is something to be said for going home before this thing gets totally spun up. I’d rather be sailing the lakes than scrambling around the countryside with a couple million starving sick people.

Medical Maven – at 23:44

Ricewiki: Maybe I will be wrong, but I think that we here on this site could get at least a two to three day jump on the rest of the population as regards to the start of a pandemic. (But you will have to ACT). Wishful thinking? Maybe. But that will be a good thought to keep in your head while you work out the logistics of whatever plan you decide upon.

Ruth – at 23:56

I agree, I think if you stay tuned to this forum and the birdflu news websites, you will be able to get out before the rest of the city, or country is aware of what’s happening. Do not take chicago storm drains. Head north and then west. Or north. Chicago is a great city, but all bets are off for chicago or any other large city if a pandemic hits.

11 June 2006

ricewiki – at 08:13

Yes, I’ll have to figure something like that out. Northwest sounds good. South too - why not. Wonder if that 2–3 day lead could still allow me to get a last minute flight out. Not sure the train would be safe - too long of exposure to possible shedders.

Medical Maven – at 09:14

ricewiki: You can get away from seemingly contagious people on a train, but on a plane you are stuck. I know because I had a pleasure trip to Greece ruined a few years back because I was stuck next to a highly contagious shedder. Worst viral infection I ever had, took me six weeks to fully recover. On a train I could have gotten up and spent the trip standing in a cul-de-sac as far away as possible or maybe even in another compartment.

Ruth – at 09:24

Actually, if a pandemic begins, I would guess that at first people would be confused as to what that means, then they would run to the stores to begin stocking up on supplies. If you really want to leave town, that’s when you go. If we start to see large clusters overseas, people here won’t even know about it. Remember most are pretty clueless when it comes to this so it will take some time to react.

LMWatBullRunat 09:50

From experience, having a plan is good. (as soon as I see large clusters I’m outta here via….)

However, it is rare that a plan works the way you originally think it will. This pandemic may blossom from Africa or some other place we aren’t even aware of right now, and the first we’d know of it would be thousands of cases *right here.* Given Chicago’s size and economic activity, it is highly likely in such an event that it will be one of the first cities to get really hit hard, along with NYC, LA, San Francisco, DC, and Miami. So now, there you are in a city coming unwrapped. What to do?

Having multiple contingency/backup plans is much better than thinking on your feet; it saves thinking when you may be tired or really stressed. In a 30 year career doing oddball construction projects I have had to think on my feet far too often, which is why I really try to have multiple backup plans for every major activity I undertake. Failing to plan ahead means you are planning while you are running! I now try to anticipate all the major things that can go wrong. Anybody actually in a large metro area should strongly consider having multiple evac plans (if I have notice I do this, if not I do this, if this road is blocked then I do this… etc)

Also, have a handheld police scanner and make sure you know ALL the frequencies, including the fire, tac and swat channels as well as the patrol channel for both your area and all the adjacent ones. Knowing where the troubles and roadblocks are is a *good thing*

Ruth – at 11:34

Have a good map and to get off highways and on to smaller streets.

13 June 2006

LMWatBullRunat 00:45

Ruth-

Maps are great. I buy USGS maps (7.5 minute series) for 3 quads every direction from every place I have lived as an adult. (I have LOTS of USGS maps!) I also get highway maps for the area, as well as street maps. Each vehicle I own has a complete set of maps. I think everyone ought to buy maps (No, I’m not affiliated with a mapping company!)

But maps are not a plan. If you are in a big city, you need a plan, and several backup plans, for how you’ll get out. Maybe it’ll be just as easy as everyone thinks. Are you willing to bet your life on it? Plan the work, work the plan!

To quote a character from one of my all-time favorite movies “Running? That’s not a plan, Valentine, running’s what you do when a plan fails!” Back roads are great for avoiding (some) traffic jams, but they won’t avoid 2 million terrified ex-Chicagoans.

07 November 2006

anonymous – at 13:55

Illinois State Summit

Opening Remarks Prepared for Delivery By the Honorable Mike Leavitt Secretary of Health and Human Services March 17, 2006

That Great Pandemic also touched Illinois.

Chicago was then the nation’s second largest city and the country’s largest rail hub. As a consequence, the disease reached the city quickly. Before the disease reached this city, overconfident public health officers proclaimed, “We have the Spanish influenza situation well in hand now.”

Then the disease came.

Influenza was reported in Chicago on September 27th. Within two weeks, it was epidemic throughout the state. Cities like Kankakee and Rockford were as hard hit as rural sections and coal-mining districts.

But Chicago saw the most awful impacts. While the pandemic raged toward its dreadful peak, the city saw an average of 12,000 new cases each week. More than 2,100 Chicagoans died during the second week of October. More than 2,300 died during the third week.

The city ran out of hearses. Signs were posted banning public funerals, and limiting funeral attendees to no more than 10, in addition to the undertaker, the minister, and necessary drivers. No bodies were allowed in churches.

A U.S. Public Health Services Officer named Jo Cobb, who was working at the city’s Marine Hospital wrote to a friend, “Our beds were filled as fast as emptied.”

Navy nurse Josie Brown, who served at Naval Hospital in Great Lakes remembered:

“The morgues were packed almost to the ceiling with bodies stacked one on top of another. The morticians worked day and night. You could never turn around without seeing a big red truck loaded with caskets for the train station so bodies could be sent home. We didn’t have the time to treat them. We didn’t take temperatures; we didn’t even have time to take blood pressure. We would give them a little hot whisky toddy; that’s about all we had time to do. They would have terrific nosebleeds with it. Sometimes the blood would just shoot across the room. You had to get out of the way or someone’s nose would bleed all over you.”

When it comes to pandemics, there is no rational basis to believe that the early years of the 21st century will be different than the past. If a pandemic strikes, it will come to Illinois.

http://tinyurl.com/y5nsov

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.ChicagoAreaPreparedness
Page last modified on November 07, 2006, at 01:55 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Menstruation Suggestion

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Menstruation Suggestion

15 March 2006

MrsBat 08:58

This may be TMI (too much infomation) for some of you gents & ladies, but I think it’s a worthwhile tip when considering long-term stockpiling. Women who still menstruate may want to consider switching to maxipads during their periods rather than tampons. The chlorine used in most tampons can extend the number of days you bleed, thus extending the amount of “personal product” you need to stockpile. Plus there’s the issue of toxic shock syndrome, not something I would want to deal with in quarantine. When I switched to using maxipads, my average days of bleeding per period went from six to three.

Quoth the Raven – at 09:05

There was a thread in the past where people discussed various options (sorry I can’t remember the name)… a number of us ended up purchasing a product called the “Diva Cup” which is a silicone cup which is reusable for years. I’ve been very happy with it so far and encourage others to give it a look. At around $30 it’s a larger investment up front, but over the long term I expect it will save me many many dollars not to mention lightening my load on the local landfill!

Kim – at 09:14

http://fluwikie.com/index.php?n=Forum.FeminineHygiene

DemFromCTat 09:25

Thanks, Kim. You long timers, if you see a questions that’s been addressed, pop a link in.

15 May 2006

anonymous – at 11:49

Aren’t there also rubber cups called Keepers available that work the same way as a Diva Cup? — I know these wouldn’t work for women with allergies to rubber or latex, but it is another option.

I stockpile pads because they can be very helpful in a medical emergency in which someone of either gender is injured and bleeding profusely — in a pinch they can be used as a bandage/compress!

anon – at 12:07

every person’s body is different. Pads may not have the chlorine (this has to be verified) but with pads there’s the issue of yeast infections.

From what I’ve read the diva cup is really the best and most hygenic solution. If anyone else tries it please post.

Name Withheld – at 12:08

For y2k I stockpiled tampons and stockpiled some more. My flows decreased over time so the supply lasted, and lasted. At least 4 years as I recall. I did sort of worry about toxic shock, but nothing happened. I do also have The Keeper cup, but never used it.

anon – at 12:11

I’ve used tampons back to back and for longer than they say you should, sometimes 8 hours. I’ve never had any problems and certainly not toxic shock - I wonder if that even exists.

kgb – at 12:29

Toxic shock exists - I know a girl who got it.

crfullmoon – at 12:44

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toxic_shock_syndrome

lauraB – at 14:52

I was a teenage when the whole Toxic Shock thing happened in the late 70′s/early 80′s. As a result I have always been deligent about no using them for too long. Eventhough the earlier problem was pirmarily caused by flawed design, you can still get it quite easily.

Another option if you’re on BCP, or are thinking about starting, is to get several months worth and take it continuously rather than take the week-off pills.

LizBat 15:18

Kim, when I clink on the link http://fluwikie.com/index.php?n=Forum.FeminineHygiene I get” “The forum is read-only until further notice. Return to main Forum page.”

No actual thread to read.

Anyway FWIW, pre-world war two, i.e. before disposible sanitary pads were invented, women used cloth pads and washed them. Yuk!

I asked a friend in a third world country what do you do, the stuff is expensive. She said get pregnant and stay either nursing or pregnant.

DonJuansOtherDaughterat 15:53

I had a friend that used the “Keeper” but it caused bruising on her cervix. Im not sure if this is common or not.

Kim – at 16:02

LizB, I guess that thread disappeared when fluwikie2 was created. The gist of the conversation on it was about a DivaCup, which is something I bought because of that thread (had never heard of it before that). Anyway, I LOVE it, and will never never ever go back to tampons. Have had mine for 3–4 months now, and it has decreased the intensity of my cramps considerably (does nothing for the PMS, but ya take what you can get). I still sometimes use a backup pad with the DivaCup, but leaks are pretty rare (unlike with tampons… can’t tell you how many times I had to go home and change because of an “accident” when using them). There is a short learning curve to be able to insert the DivaCup properly, but after that it’s SO simple, and extremely comfortable. In the short time I’ve had it it’s already paid for itself because I’m not buying tampons. It comes in a little drawstring bag that fits discreetly in my purse (since I’m never sure exactly what day I’ll start). I bought mine on ebay, but you can also find them here http://www.divacup.com/

Kim – at 16:28

Oh yes, the best thing about using a DivaCup instead of tampons is being able to sleep through the night and not wake up to a big bloody mess and ruined sheets! I SURE don’t miss that!

Des – at 16:35

The new link to the aforementioned thread is: fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.FeminineHygiene

ricewiki – at 16:52

Oh great…. population probs in underdeveloped countries because there aren’t affordable menstruation products…. wonderful.

ricewiki – at 16:53

Oh great…. population probs in underdeveloped countries because there aren’t affordable menstruation products…. wonderful. Our world has cancer.

Sahara – at 17:51

I can assure you from experience that soldiers, scientists and others that work in remote locations have no time for tampons. Keepers, Diva cups or others of differing brands are de rigeur. The other method I we use is to be on the pill and throw away the placebo week. Just start another package. No, it is not unhealthy not to menstruate.

Kim – at 20:04

There are plenty of us who can’t use birth control pills because of medical reasons, and some women have religious beliefs against using the Pill, and others just don’t WANT to take the Pill. I doubt very seriously that menstrual protection costs any more than birth control protection, and doubt that a woman in Africa who can’t afford tampons or birth control is reading any of this anyway. Besides, don’t we hand out condoms and birth control like candy to just about anyone in the world who wants it? Perhaps the women in undeveloped countries are better off NOT being able to afford tampons, it’s likely better for their health to use cloth protection. I can assure you that, as a woman, I would NOT be popping out kids one after another just because I couldn’t afford tampons or other feminine protection… I’d be using wadded up bundles of grass for protection before I’d turn into a baby machine just for that reason. And, not everyone wants to live half their lives on a steady diet of synthetic hormones.

24 June 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 01:25

Old thread - Closed to increase Forum speed.

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.MenstruationSuggestion
Page last modified on November 07, 2006, at 08:58 AM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / BBC Horizon Tonight

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: BBC Horizon Tonight

07 November 2006

Alan the Pom – at 08:30

Not sure if this has already been highlighted. If not the details are: BBC 2 ‘Horizon’ will put out a broadcast that will cover BF. Time 9.00pm (2100) today Tuesday 7th November 2006. Quote: As the winter months close in, GP surgeries around the country will be steeling them-selves for patients booking appointments for their flu vaccinations. However,as this chilling, feature-length documentary reveals, there could come a time in the none-to-distant future when a pandemic of the virus hits. un-quote Should be interesting to see what they have to say.

anon_22 – at 08:45

Alan,

yes, its here. But thanks for posting it anyway. I’m going to close this thread so we can put everything on one.

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.BBCHorizonTonight
Page last modified on November 07, 2006, at 08:45 AM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Not Bird Flu but Close NEWS

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Not Bird Flu but Close NEWS

19 October 2006

DennisCat 09:56

Thought it might be nice to have something for News that wasn’t exactly H5N1 but was close or suspect. Things that are not exactly rumors and not exactly H5N1 but might indicate misdiagnosed cases, missed cases, health issues that might impact the response of the health care system if H5N1 goes pandemic. - you get the idea.

DennisCat 09:56

Pakistan

Thirty more patients of Viral Hemorrhagic Fever were admitted in private and government hospitals in Karachi during last 24 hours. Forty-nine patients of the disease were discharged from hospitals after recovery.

Government and private hospitals in the metropolis have discharged 49 patients of the Viral Hemorrhagic Fever during 24 hours, while 30 new cases were admitted in hospitals, focal person to the Dengue Fever Surveillance Committee Dr. Abdul Majid told Geo News.

Provincial Programme Manager of the Sindh Blood Transfusion Authority Dr. Zahid Ansari has said a kit used in dengue fever diagnosis process need 96 blood samples and tests can be made after collection of the required number of samples.

http://tinyurl.com/u6mlh

DennisCat 10:05

Plague in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

“WHO has received reports of a suspected pneumonic plague outbreak in 2 health zones in Haut-Uele district, the majority reported from Wamba health zone in Oriental province in the northern part of the country. Six hundred and twenty-six suspected cases including 42 deaths have been reported from 31 July to 8 October. However, the low case fatality ratio is unusual for pneumonic plague which suggests that the number of suspected cases may be an overestimation. Preliminary results from a rapid diagnosis test in the field found three samples positive, out of eight. Additional laboratory confirmation is under way. “

http://tinyurl.com/yjar7x

DennisCat 10:31

HHS backs respirator use in caring for pandemic flu patients

Health and Human Services (HHS) has issued new guidance calling for stronger respiratory protection for healthcare workers in the event of an influenza pandemic. A new interim guidance document says the use of N-95 respirators—designed to stop 95% of small airborne particles….. The report recommends that healthcare workers caring for pandemic flu patients use respirators rated at N-95 or higher during activities likely to generate infectious aerosols, such as intubation, nebulizer treatment, bronchoscopy, and resuscitation. In addition, a respirator should be used when providing any kind of direct care for a confirmed or suspected pandemic flu patient who has pneumonia, because such patients may produce unusual amounts of infectious particles when they cough. …

http://tinyurl.com/y8smen

DennisCat 10:34

for seasonal flu,

CDC puts flu vaccine supply at 115 million doses

“The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) today increased its estimate of the flu vaccine supply for this season but said many healthcare providers don’t have their full supply yet because of distribution issues. …

about 115 million doses of flu vaccine will be available this season, which is 15 million more than the agency’s September projection. She said 40 million doses were distributed by the end of the second week of October, and that 75 million doses would be distributed by the end of the month. …

http://tinyurl.com/yz6ap4

Dennis in Colorado – at 12:32

Deadly TB Found in All Nine Provinces of South Africa
Scientists’ suspicions that the deadly new strain of extremely drug resistant tuberculosis (XDR-TB) first identified in KwaZulu-Natal earlier this year is circulating in all nine provinces have been confirmed by the National Health Laboratory Services (NHLS), it emerged yesterday.
The disease has public health experts around the world deeply worried, as it poses a severe risk to people infected with HIV.
XDR-TB first hit the headlines two months ago, when scientists told the 16th International AIDS Conference in Toronto that a devastating outbreak of the disease in rural KwaZulu-Natal had killed all but one of the 53 patients they had identified. All were HIV-positive.
Since then a total of 78 patients have been confirmed with XDR-TB in the province, 74 of whom have died. Another nine cases have been identified in Gauteng, 10 in North West, six in Eastern Cape and three in Limpopo, according to health department director-general Thami Mseleku.
[snip]
“Infection control in many public hospitals is either inadequate or nonexistent,” [Medical Research Council’s Karin] Weyer said.
[snip]
[health department director-general Thami] Mseleku strove to reassure the public, saying there was limited evidence of outbreaks of XDR-TB within communities.
“XDR-TB is not an epidemic (in SA),” he said.

Green Mom – at 12:47

I don’t have any close news but I think this thread is an excellent idea. Thanks Dennis!

Oremus – at 13:10

New Delhi, Oct 19 (IANS) In one of the worst days since the dreaded mosquito-borne dengue fever spread its tentacles in the country, eight people died Thursday, five in Delhi, taking the toll to 115.

With five more deaths in the national capital, the tally of dead has touched 40 since September. In all, 6,740 patients are being treated in hospitals and clinics across the country. And, the health officials are running out of options to check the spread of the virus.

Eight die of dengue in India, five in Delhi

History Lover – at 14:01

Thanks for all your hard work DennisC.

enza – at 19:27

Thanks DennisC over here we will be able watch abb morph into…

DennisCat 21:07

Dengue claims more lives in India

The dengue outbreak has claimed eight more lives - five of them died in Delhi and three others in Andhra Pradesh, latest figures show.

The outbreak in recent weeks has claimed 155 lives so far and 89 fresh cases were reported in the country.

Across India, 834 cases of dengue is reported in Kerala, 830 in Rajasthan, 580 in Maharashtra, 573 in West Bengal, 478 in Uttar Pradesh, 413 in Punjab, 317 in Tamil Nadu, 232 in Haryana, 92 in Karnataka and 67 cases in Andhra Pradesh.

http://tinyurl.com/sef43

DennisCat 21:10

Twelve die of encephalitis, malaria, 4 from dengue in WB

Siliguri, Oct 19: Twelve persons have died of encephalitis and malaria in government hospitals in West Bengal’s Malda district in the past one week, while another four have died of dengue and another 500 affected in the rest of the state. Malda district magistrate Chittaranjan Das told PTI that of the 12, eight were children and four women…

http://tinyurl.com/yynqa3

20 October 2006

Commonground – at 06:30

I don’t know if we have a thread specific to dengue in Indonesia. I’ll put this one here.
http://tinyurl.com/yhrh2w
Older brother-Be Siblings was attacked by DB
(20 Oct 2006, 13 x, printed, Comment) WATAMPONE — Aswita flowers, 13, and Asti Usma Diwati, 11, villagers Arasoe, the Chinese Subdistrict, Bone, was rolled over limp in RSUD Tenriawaru Watampone, since October 17. The couple’s child Usman and Sukmawati this entered the hospital because of being attacked by the dengue fever illness (dB). Apart from older brother-be siblings that, Nursahira, 5, that also the citizen Arasoe, was attacked by the similar illness. This one casualties were still having the family’s relations with older brother-be siblings this. The three sufferers dB from Arasoe, at this time was treated in RSUD Tenriawaru. Was based on the hospital data, the sufferer dB since this October just reached five people. Usman, parents older brother-be siblings when being found said that, initially the two temperatures of his two children were very tall. Initially, he expected only normal fevers. However after two days did not experience the change, he began to be suspicious if his child was attacked dB. Knew this matter, Usman brought him to the Mare Community Health Centre on Monday, October 16. The next day, Usman brought his two children to RSUD Tenriawaru. Although getting the maintenance from the RS side, but older brother-be siblings this not yet recovered. According to Usman, since entering RS, his two children have finished the liquid infussebanyak ten bottles. He said, in his area at the beginning Ramadan, the official of the Bone Health of the Service had carried out fumigation. However fumigation was not carried out evenly, and only in the certain area then. “Fumigation did not arrive home I.” In fact has been sent, explained Usman. He hoped that the related side immediately intervened did fumigation in Arasoe, to prevent other casualties. Considering, already approximately 15 children were attacked dB.

Albert – at 07:11

http://www.newagebd.com/front.html#15

Elephants kill 5 in Ctg Staff Correspondent . Chittagong

Five members of a family were trampled to death by a herd of wild elephants at Gunagar village under Banskhali upazila, 30 miles south of the Chittagong city, early Thursday.

   The dead were identified as Tejendra Nath, 60, his wife Pratima Nath, 48, daughter-in-law Rika Nath, 26 and two granddaughters Simul Nath, 12 and Nayan Nath, 2.
   The police said the elephants rampaged through the hilly area and trampled the five to death at about 1:00am.
   The officer-in-charge of the Banskhali police station, Jahirul Islam, said a flock of wild elephants suddenly attacked and damaged two non-brick houses of a poor family.
   As the victims were trying to come out of the houses for safety, the elephants in their frenzy trampled each of them to death on the spot and later vanished into the nearby forest, he said.
   A pall of gloom descended on the area following the incident and hundreds of people from the neighbouring areas thronged the spot. 
Oremus – at 12:24

Albert – at 07:11

Now you’re being facetious.

Blue Ridge Mountain Mom – at 16:23

India

This is from RSOE Havaria’s disaster board. If the experts are betting on Dengue and Chik to go down due to cooler weather and H5N1 cases to go up, looks like we should see these numbers go down here pretty soon. Crosses fingers, and adjusts rose colored glasses.

http://tinyurl.com/y49gv3

Doctors and health experts are now banking on the change in weather for the outbreak to be curbed. And the overnight rain and the subsequent dip in temperature have already signalled that there will now be a downturn in the the transmission of the dengue virus.

“We need to see daytime temperature of 16 degree Celsius. Decrease in daytime temperatures would certainly lead to a change in the disease pattern. The Aedes mosquito thrives on hot, humid and high temperature, which is anywhere between 20–30 Degree Celsius,” said P.L. Joshi, Director of National Vector Borne Disease Control Programme. According to doctors, the next couple of days could be vital. “This is definitely a good sign, but it is too soon to say if the rain will eventually lead to reduction in dengue and chikungunya cases. The mosquito transmission goes down only when the days are cooler,” said Dr D.K. Sharma, Medical Superintendent of AIIMS.

DennisCat 17:48

This is old (Feb) but just to remind some in light of the new Greece news. And remember what was going on in Turkey about that time.

“Greek health officials are examining 54 illegal immigrants picked up in eastern Greece near the Turkish coast for signs of the bird flu virus, the merchant marine ministry said on Saturday.

“First indications showed there are no signs of bird flu. The immigrants seemed to be just tired. The process is still ongoing,” a ministry spokeswoman said. She said health officials are also conducting autopsies on three dead illegal immigrants found within the group. A police official said the immigrants were found in two rubber boats 10 miles north-east of the island of Samos near the Turkish coast. They were transferred to the port of Lavrio east of Athens, where they were placed under quarantine. Bird flu virus has killed four Turkish children. There are fears the virus could mutate into a form that can pass easily from person to person, setting off a pandemic.

Tens of thousands of migrants attempt to cross illegally into European Union member Greece every year either through the Greek-Turkish land border that stretches along the Evros river or by boarding a boat along the western Turkish coast.

Story Date: 23/1/2006″

http://tinyurl.com/uhx4d

Here is the link to the current events: “Four illegal immigrants from India with bird flu symptoms have been hospitalised in Greek Island of Syros” http://tinyurl.com/y4qntd

anon for this post – at 21:31

You are using the very tragic and unfortunate deaths of this family to make what point? In other words, “And your point is?” Perhaps it’s best you stay on the India thread

and this post too – at 21:33

That was for Albert

21 October 2006

Albert – at 00:15

Oremus: yes, after looking it up in an online dictionary, I agree. I stand condemned as accused.

Anon for this post, and this post too : I use my own handle to post and my parents thaught me not to talk to strangers.

anon for this post 2 – at 00:20

Anon for this post---- please don’t send him over to the India thread.

DennisCat 11:32

plague in Uganda

Six people have been confirmed dead following a suspected outbreak of a plague in Arua district. Dr. Darlington Akusa, who is part of the American-funded Uganda Virus Research Institute team studying the plague outbreak, said the deaths occurred in Logiri sub-county, near the north-eastern Congolese border, a hotbed for the disease.

He said 24 people had been infected with the plague and had been admitted to isolation wards. Akusa said they had flu-like symptoms, vomiting and diarrhoea, which are associated with the plague. He said preliminary results from the tests confirmed pneumonic plague, the least common but most lethal form of the a typical disease. Akusa said the disease was suspected to have originated from areas bordering the DR Congo, where the World Health Organisation (WHO) reported an outbreak of the plague three months ago. He said Logiri sub-county has a hill that inhabits rodents carrying fleas that transmit the plague bacterium from rats to humans. The WHO warned that the disease kills 30% to 60% of infected people if they do not get treatment.

Pixie – at 11:56

Commonground - at 6:30:

RSUD Tenriawaru is in South Sulawesi. Going back and browsing the news, there have been quite a few children in the Sulawesi and Makassar area that have contracted dengue (DBD), including several fatalities. Between Jan. and the end of Oct. last year, Sulawesi saw 250 cases of dengue, “casualties almost all children and preschoolers,” with 4 deaths. Then in Oct. of last year there was a big increase in cases in Makassar city. One year ago, on Oct. 22, 2005, there were 12 children in intensive care in RS Labuangbaji, Makassar.

I don’t have any theories here, but do wonder if anyone tested these children presenting with “hot high” for H5N1.

DennisCat 18:47

Eight hospitalized overnight after falling ill on cruise

“Eight passengers on a Mississippi Queen riverboat cruise remained hospitalized in western Kentucky Saturday after developing flu-like symptoms while aboard the boat…

Hospital spokeswoman Shelia Patterson said 17 passengers were treated. Nine were released late Friday, while eight others were kept overnight for observation… “A lot of people are nervous about staying aboard,” said Carol Taliaferro, a passenger from El Cerrito, Calif., who boarded the ship in Louisville on Wednesday. “I feel very uncertain about what’s going on. I don’t think they are telling us everything.” The cause of the outbreak was still under investigation Saturday

http://tinyurl.com/y4u96e

Anon_451 – at 18:58

DennisC – at 18:47 No Links, first hand information, some of the passengers (10 for sure) who were not ill went to the local airport and bought tickets to fly home.

DennisCat 19:54

Anon_451 – at 18:58 No Links, first hand information

Some how I trust your first hand info more than a second or third hand info from a published article by an un-named journalist talking about some un-named source.

DennisCat 21:52

500,000 flu-shots recalled

“The pharmaceutical company Novartis is recalling 500,000 doses of its flu vaccine after two shipments bound for use in a childhood immunization program in New York were found frozen. Freezing can inactivate influenza vaccine, making it ineffective but not dangerous. ..

The recall covers only a small fraction of the 110 million doses expected to be available in the United States this flu season. About 40 million doses had been shipped to health departments, doctors’ offices and clinics by the end of last week, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta. The VFC program ordered 5.6 million doses. ..

http://tinyurl.com/tvawq

Anon_451 – at 22:33

DennisC – at 19:54 Thank you Kind sir. (The Folks at the ticket counters and the TSA folks were a bit concerned). They were advised to insure that they wore their gloves and change them often, used alcohol on all non-porous surfaces and Lysol disinfectant all around. Coupled with lots of hand washing.

The Local media is speculating that it MAY be Norwalk virus but they do not know for sure.

cottontop – at 23:01

Norwalk virus- isn’t that the one that keeps recking havoc on these large cruise ships, like Carnival?

Anon_451 – at 23:06

http://tinyurl.com/yd66gm

The above is a link to the local newspaper. Note that the local TV stations are reporting that the boat is continuing on to St Louis with a couple of doctors on board to make sure all is OK.

DennisCat 23:06

cottontop – at 23:01 yes

22 October 2006

DennisCat 16:24

One dies in Nepal

“Kathmandu: Nepal reported its first dengue related death on Saturday. On the basis of a clinical test it was confirmed that a resident of the Tikulim area of Gaur died of dengue, the state-run National News Agency (RSS) reported. ….

Authorities said that there was no dengue case in Nepalgunj in Banke district bordering India.

All suspected dengue patients in the Nepalgunj Medical College were diagnosed negative, they said.”

http://tinyurl.com/ydc6ez

DennisCat 16:25

oops, the link for that one should be : http://tinyurl.com/yxudtn

Pixie – at 16:44

I posted more detail on the situation in Nepal that DennisC - at 16:24 menions here.

Six people were brought into the Nepalganj Teaching Hospital with suspect dengue about a week ago. All tested negative.

Now medical staff and others at the hospital are also suspected to have dengue. They are also having problems getting a diagnosis.

Patients are presenting with fever and there is one report of a hemmoraghic case. It seems that people are also being sent out of the Nepalganj hospital and are being told to seek treatment elsewhere.

Pixie – at 16:45

I meant to say that I posted more info on the Nepal situation on the India thread.

Seabreeze – at 16:52

cottontop – at 23:01 Norwalk virus- isn’t that the one that keeps recking havoc on these large cruise ships, like Carnival?

I live near Pt. Canaveral in FL where the Norwalk virus has manifested on cruise ships here in the recent past, with hundreds of sick passengers at one time. This is a port of call for many ships, and home port to Disney ships and Carnival Cruise Lines among many others, and I am appalled at how this is handled. The passengers who are not showing symptoms are allowed to disembark and board busses to visit area malls and shopping centers and beaches. They literally arrive by the bus loads and mingle with the locals and tourists from all over the world.

The sick passengers are treated on board and removed to area hospitals and/or medical centers while the ship is disinfected. Then everyone boards again and the ship moves on. Sometimes it takes days for the ship to be disinfected to the point it can pass inspection.

When I hear of a sick ship coming in, I drive to the mainland to do my shopping. We have the second largest passenger port in the country, so it’s just a matter of time before something like H5N1 comes along and gets off a ship and on a bus, then BINGO.

cottontop – at 17:20

thanks seabreeze. another disease to learn about.

cottontop – at 17:21

Oh, and remind me not to take any curises. Get motion sickness anyway.

24 October 2006

DennisCat 09:57

Pakistan

Fourteen of the 77 samples received so far by the National Institute of Health have tested positive for Dengue Fever. These include five samples received from three hospitals in Rawalpindi (Rawalpindi General Hospital-2, Railways Hospital-2, Social Security Hospital-1) that were declared positive Monday. However, no death from the infection has so far been reported from the twin cities, a spokesman of the Ministry of Health disclosed. As far as the situation in Karachi is concerned, 1,337 patients with symptoms of the disease have been admitted to different hospitals since October 2. Of these, 432 were found positive for the virus while 25 have died so far.

“The epidemic-like situation seen in Karachi only is now showing a static trend whereas there are only isolated sporadic cases reported so far from a few other districts of the country. ….He emphasised that the disease was not contagious and has no man-to-man transmission

http://tinyurl.com/yhbnzq

DennisCat 12:24

36 W&M students show flu symptoms

“Thirty-six students at the College of William and Mary have sought treatment since Saturday for flulike symptoms that include nausea, fever and an elevated white-blood-cell count.

Sam Sadler, the school’s vice president for student affairs, said in an e-mail to students, faculty and staff yesterday that one student also has come down with the symptoms of mumps, a contagious disease that recently broke out among students at the University of Virginia. Sadler said health officials are involved in the school’s response to both of the public-health incidents, which do not appear to be related.

He said one student reporting the flulike symptoms, which included diarrhea, was sick enough to be hospitalized…..”

http://tinyurl.com/y6ltkj

Klatu – at 16:02

Squash the Bug

Europe is killing off hospital infections. Why isn’t the United States following suit?

By Arthur Allen

Slate

Posted Tuesday, Oct. 24, 2006, at 2:33 PM

If you are an American admitted to a hospital in Amsterdam, Toronto, or Copenhagen these days, you’ll be considered a biohazard. Doctors and nurses will likely put you into quarantine while they determine whether you’re carrying methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, a deadly organism that is increasingly common stateside, especially in our hospitals.

And if you test positive for methicillin-resistant staph, or MRSA, these European and Canadian hospital workers will don protective gloves, masks, and gowns each time they approach you, and then strip off the gear and scrub down vigorously when they leave your room. The process is known as “search and destroy”—a combat mission that hospitals abroad are undertaking to prevent the spread of germs that resist antibiotics. Our own health authorities, meanwhile, have been strangely reluctant to join the assault.

In the United States, MRSA kills an estimated 13,000 people every year, which means that a hospital patient is 10 times as likely to die of MRSA as an inmate is to be murdered in prison. The latest survey by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found that 64 percent of the Staphylococcus-aureus strains in American hospitals were MRSA—that is, resistant to the powerful antibiotic methicillin and other antibiotics—which makes them difficult to treat. MRSA has also spread to the general public, afflicting football teams and schools in the last three years. I know a healthy 5-year-old who got a staph infection recently after she skinned her knee on the playground. She ended up requiring two full months of antibiotic treatment, while her mother scoured the house with bleach on doctor’s orders. And she may not be rid of the bug yet.

Given the dimensions of the threat, you’d think that the CDC would be making a priority of fighting it. After all, federal health agencies have spent billions to fight anthrax (which caused five deaths in 2001), smallpox (last U.S. death: 1949), and pandemic flu (yet to appear in the United States). And there is reason to think that search and destroy works, since health-care authorities abroad have kept rates of antibiotic-resistant bugs in their countries much lower than ours. In Dutch hospitals, the rate of MRSA is less than 1 percent. Canada’s rate is 10 percent. And more than 100 studies have shown the effectiveness of search and destroy, including work released in the last month in the United States.

Yet the CDC refuses to endorse search and destroy. It is sticking to the mantra that hospital workers should wash their hands more carefully and frequently, and that in most cases patients should be isolated only after symptoms of infection with MRSA appear. Routine surveillance to find patients who may not be symptomatic, but are still contagious, is rarely practiced, and not recommended in the CDC’s new hospital infection-fighting guidelines, which were released last week after five years of deliberations. The guidelines do not include a routine recommendation for search and destroy.” excerpt

This is a bitter pill for many infectious-disease experts, who have been joined by the relatives of dead patients, Consumers Union, and even a few Congress members in pressing the CDC. “ - excerpt

http://tinyurl.com/ya46ml

Leo7 – at 22:39

Hospitals would have to shut down and clean itself from the top down. It could take weeks, people could die waiting for a hospital bed, and it would just take one employee or visitor who is a carrier to blow the whole process. Europe doesn’t stand a chance. In the beginning we did that too. We lost.

25 October 2006

cactus – at 00:16
  And, as much as I hate druggies, if TPTB would have given them clean needles, it wouldn`t have spread quite so rapidly. I consider all meth addicts to have MRSA, and wear gloves even when triaging them, and make sure I do an extra good wipedown of BP cuffs,etc. 
FriscoParentat 10:20

I am a nurse. I remember a few years ago when I started my clinicals I had to take care of a few patients with MRSA or VRE. It was troublesome then, we had to wear gowns, and goggles plus the usual gloves. I did notice then that alot of my fellow students did not wash hands between patients, yes they did wear gloves but still did not wash. I remember washing my hands so much that when I went to bed I had to soak my hands in hand lotion and cover with mitts. (Wash your hands folks!) A couple of years ago I would hear of staph infection spreading to the school football team in South Texas… they would go in and spray the locker-rooms down. Now the local school district has a staph infection spreading. I found this out by lurking around a local message board for the city I live in. We did not get a notice home or anything. It could start out as a small infected wound then turn into something really nasty. I think we should have gotten notice of this.. I am a nurse and I know what to look out for, but for your average Joe. ??. We need to keep people informed about this.. it is a problem now and will only become bigger. I say get the word out. Okay, thats enough before I get on my soapbox. Take Care all.

Klatu – at 20:52

FriscoParent – at 10:20 wrote:

I am a nurse. I remember a few years ago when I started my clinicals I had to take care of a few patients with MRSA or VRE. It was troublesome then, we had to wear gowns, and goggles plus the usual gloves. I did notice then that alot of my fellow students did not wash hands between patients, yes they did wear gloves but still did not wash. I remember washing my hands so much that when I went to bed I had to soak my hands in hand lotion and cover with mitts. (Wash your hands folks!) A couple of years ago I would hear of staph infection spreading to the school football team in South Texas….. it is a problem now and will only become bigger. I say get the word out. Okay, thats enough before I get on my soapbox. Take Care all.


Thanks FriscoParent,

I’m married to a nurse - MRSA and biofilms are part of my wife’s vocabulary. I posted this piece on MRSA to give folks a heads-up on the realities on it (& C.Difficile). If individuals are going to hospitals during an official pandemic, they should be aware of all the realities.

The Gutenberg Press was suppose to do, what the Internet is hoping to do - time will tell.

 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johann_Gutenberg

“Biofilms have been found to be involved in a wide variety of microbial infections in the body, by one estimate 80% of all infections (NIH 2002). Infectious processes in which biofilms have been implicated include common problems such as urinary tract infections, catheter infections, middle-ear infections, formation of dental plaque, gingivitis, coating contact lenses, and less common but more lethal processes such as endocarditis, infections in cystic fibrosis, and infections of permanent indwelling devices such as joint prostheses and heart valves. (Lewis 2001, Parsek and Singh 2003)”

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biofilm

cottontop – at 21:46

Question- If you or a family get sick/are sick during a pandemic, do you really want to go to the hospital where hundreds of sick people are, lined along the hallyways, no room in the E.R.? Is this reall a wise dicision? I understand that staying at home is useless, but what would you do. If you went to the E.R., what is the estimated time you think you would be seen and treated?

enza – at 21:48

Most plans will stand up offsite(from hospitals) triage centers and PODS.

DennisCat 22:16

cottontop – at 21:46 “do you really want go to the hospital where hundreds of sick people are”

If it is H5N1, the hosptials will not be be best places to visit. How often do you think they will really clean the hallways?

“When we tested the virus in Hong Kong from 1997, the virus was killed at 37 degrees Celsius (98 Fahrenheit) in two days. The current H5N1 is still viable for six days at 37,” said Webster, from St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital in the U.S. city Memphis. ….”H5N1 at room temperatures can stay (alive) for at least a week in wet conditions,” Webster told Reuters on the eve of a bird flu conference organized by the Lancet medical journal in Singapore. ….

The choice of going to the hospital would depend on what the infection rate would be. If there is only 5 infected in town that is one thing, but if there are thousands…..

cottontop – at 22:54

DennisC- “….but if there are thousands…”

I just don’t see how you hope to be treated at the e.r. You’d get lost in the mountain of people. taking a chance at home would be useless, going to hospital would be useless(with hundreds/thousands of people.)

DennisCat 23:59

India-

Even as Delhi battles with dengue, it seems to have been gripped by chikungunya as well. Of the seven chikungunya cases reported from across the country in the last 24 hours, two are from the Capital. Confirming this, officials from Directorate of National Vector-borne Disease Control Programme said the Aedes mosquito, the dengue vector, is simultaneously active in spreading chikungunya as well. The rest of the cases are from Tamil Nadu. Till now, 11 of the 31 chikungunya cases reported from Delhi have travel history from South India. So travel history of the latest cases is also under the scanner now. Doctors in city hospitals have now started sending more samples to the National Institute of Communicable Diseases (NICD). The chikungunya virus has hit the city after nearly three decades. “We suggest the NICD carry an epidemic study so as to get more details.

http://tinyurl.com/y68ew3

26 October 2006

DennisCat 00:03

cottontop – at 22:54 “going to hospital would be useless”

If there are really hundreds, I would not go to the hospital. And that is coming from someone that was once on the hopital board. I would take my chance at home with the care of my love ones. But it would be nice if I or someone else could “drive thru” and get some Tamiflu or an oxygen bottle.

enza – at 01:29

cottontop and DennisC— you most likely will not be seen in an ER. Most hospitals are planning to triage offsite. Only the critcally ill (needing ventilators etc.) will be taken to the hospitals.

Leo7 – at 12:33

Enza:

I’ve seen you mention off site triage and pods before. How does that work exactly regarding flow of patients? Are the hospital doors locked to anyone who doesn’t come from the triage centers? Do ambulances and paramedics pick up from home and then go to triage centers? What about family members dumping their sick outside the hospital doors and leave. Then what? Just curious.

LauraBat 12:40

And even at triage centers, you run the same risk of being exposed to infections persons. They may not be at the center ofr BF, but are there for another reason and don’t know they’re infected yet. Still, if there are places people can go for say only “stitches/broken bones” at one place “pregnancy” at another, etc. that would help ease the burden on the hospitals. Also, as long as you are an adult you can not have company with you at the center. Fewer people, lower viral spread.

Sorry, back to “close news”!

Fiddlerdave – at 16:59

BTW, an oxygen bottle a single person can lift and move lasts just a few hours. I seriously doubt there are enough bottles around to even handle a small percentage of pandemic cases. I have purchased my own concentrator, you can get rebuilt ones for as low as $200 to $350 along with $200 for a finger oximeter. Of course, if there is no power for the machine…..

Green Mom – at 19:03

No, no hospitals for us-thats why I’m doing this @#$% housecleaning so I can wipe down surfaces with bleach if nessesary. (I have to FIND the surfaces first! :−0 )

enza – at 19:12

Leo7-- this is the plan I have heard from several hosp. across the country and personally from the health officers of our bi-county area. Obviously it’s not a ‘one size fits all’ plan. The logistics? They’re working on it, exercises are being planned in our counties to test the logistics.

LauraB— yes there will be risk of exposure at triage centers. One of the ways our county plans to keep the ‘worried well’ home is by utilizing our 211 system for phone triage. Our 211 is already up and running. We also have reverse 911 for info dissemination.

27 October 2006

DennisCat 11:27

Notice the original info out of Egypt was that they though it was food poisoning and they are now suspecting BF- Hopefully it is just food poisoning, but it warrants following.

China

At least 16 children, most between 2 and 5, were hospitalized with food poisoning after eating at a kindergarten in northwest China, state media reported on Friday. One of the children was in serious condition, after eating this week at the kindergarten in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. The incident was the latest in a string of mass food-poisoning outbreaks since August, all but one of them in schools. The cases appear to be unrelated. On Monday, that 56 children in a nursery school in Jiangxi province in southern China fell sick after eating cakes and noodles. Most of the children were between 3 and 6.

http://tinyurl.com/y4ml4c

cottontop – at 11:56

Don’t forget about the out breaks here in the U.S. Their saying now wild pigs were responsible for the e.coli on the spinach. I believe it to be just outbreaks of food poisioning. I do recognize that it seems a little odd, now food poisioning out breaks, but we’ve had out on outbreaks. Does that seem odd to you?

DennisCat 16:19

Just thought I would put this here since (if you recall) some cases of H5N1 were first misdiagnosed as meningitis and this is close Sudan where we are hearing suspected bird cases.

Ethiopia: Acute Watery Diarrhoea Claims 279 Lives

Acute watery diarrhoea has continued to spread alarmingly in Ethiopia, with the death toll rising to 279 and 29,880 people infected, …

 assessment by Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) in the eastern Afar region showed 84 new cases, with 11 deaths, according to OCHA….

“Last week, three samples were sent to Addis Ababa and only one tested positive for meningococcal meningitis. … Earlier this year, 621 cases of meningitis, among them 32 deaths, were reported in three regions in Ethiopia.

Early symptoms of meningitis include fever, which is followed by a rash and vomiting. Patients suffer stiffness before unconsciousness and death. The meningitis bacteria are transmitted through droplets of respiratory or throat secretions.

http://tinyurl.com/y85wyh

Curious – at 16:34

Fiddlerdave – at 16:59 on 10/26 “I have purchased my own concentrator, you can get rebuilt ones for as low as $200 to $350 along with $200 for a finger oximeter.”

Could you elaborate more on what prompted you to purchase your own oxygen concentrator, and how you plan on using it, particularly in conjunction with the finger oximeter?

anon for this – at 16:52

Comment: This is a Comment

Comment alert. Please don’t flame me.

I mostly lurk. Putting some of the things together from the news thread, the rumor thread, this thread…my PPF is off the charts. All of these stories of various diseases that share many of the symptoms of h5n1 infection all over the world. None of these folks being tested for h5n1 because it “isn’t h5n1, it is (insert dengue, chikunguya, food poisoning etc)”. Is it possible that TPTB actually think that they might segment the pandemic enough by doing this that they hope to “hide the pandemic in plain sight”?

I mean, if you announce an outbreak of Dengue (the virulent type that kills people), and you suggest to the doctors that what they are seeing is a “new type” of dengue, you are going to get Dengue diagnosis. Ditto for malaria, food poisoning, unusually virulent seasonal flu, chikunguya, pnuemonic plague. If no one ever tests because the disease has truly jumped species to humans and birds aren’t dropping dead all around us anymore. Or, maybe even, “it couldn’t be h5n1 because the pandemic strain hasn’t emerged yet according to the WHO”.

I’m probably just “out there”, hence the anonymity. I’ll probably feel better in the morning. Sounds pretty paranoid, I admit, but the concept has had my “spidey sense” tingling for a couple of days now.

crfullmoon – at 17:16

(Klatu -thanks for my new vocab word for the day; “Biofilm”)

anon for this – at 16:52, History is written by the “victors”? We’re in the seat of “interesting times” where they won’t show us the last half of the script…

Blue Ridge Mountain Mom – at 17:21

anon for this post - 16:52

I think that the watching of all of the disease outbreaks in all parts of the world has our PPF factors raised. I believe that it is truly a good thing to have the information, but I can almost see the glassy eyed stare of information overload as we try to read and keep up with the outlook posts. I know that I personally am having a hard time finding info about Central and South America, and the stuff that I’m finding is gloomy and alarming.

Might TPTB be deliberately covering up the truth? Sure, there’s a 50–50 chance. I believe though that we are seeing the lie of omission rather than commission. If we’re not testing, we won’t find the truth.

My personal opinion is that everything is connected. We exist in a circle of balance. Recall the study that said that global warming was allowing a conducive atmosphere for diseases to flourish? We have a higher number of outbreaks of a large number of very disturbing viruses and bacterias. Suddenly, the numbers in the Indonesian thread which were looking huge pale in comparison to almost 30,000 infected with Acute Watery Diarrhoea with almost 300 dead. We’re now pulling a lot more numbers with a lot more victims, people just like you and me. We’ve had several volcanic eruptions since August which may lead to a colder winter which may lead to more h5n1 outbreaks.

We need to remain vigilant, not panic and keep it all in perspective. Having said that, this week seems to be a hard week to get through. Perhaps it all of the freak weather…

DennisCat 17:27

anon for this – at 16:52 my PPF is off the charts

Relax, take a few deep breaths and repeat, “there are always epidemics somewhere in the world and the rumors are just rumors”. The only reason I started this thread is to help keep the news thread “clean” from speculation. A few of the cases here just might be BF related but most will not be. Just think of it as an early warning system on an early warning system. The thing to keep your eye open for is an abrupt change in the rates.

Oh yes my PPF is still at 3… but I take it in its stated form of how close are we to have the MSM announce that quarentine will be imposed within 24 hours and not my stress level. I am fairly well prepare (an old boy scout) but my stress is more concern for those in large cities and the ones that can hardly survive as it is.

Blue Ridge Mountain Mom – at 17:56

Great Lakes Area

http://tinyurl.com/ymvoa8

A federal order designed to prevent the spread of a fatal fish virus in the Great Lakes could increase the cost of live bait, cripple commercial fish farms and take a bite out of the region’s $4.5 billion sport fishery. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, or APHIS, issued an emergency order this week banning the interstate shipments of 37 species of live fish between the eight Great Lakes states and the Canadian provinces of Ontario and Quebec. The order was aimed at preventing the spread of Viral Hemorrhagic Septicemia, or VHS, a saltwater virus that showed up in parts of the Great Lakes last year. The virus, suspected of being imported to the Great Lakes in the ballast water of ocean freighters, has caused die-offs of 14 fish species in Lake Huron, Lake St. Clair, the Detroit River, Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, according to federal officials. Fish managers said the virus likely will spread to Lake Michigan and Lake Superior and eventually kill a portion of many species of fish, including trout and salmon. The virus does not affect humans, according to state officials. “We’re going to see more dead fish because of this,” said Gary Whelan, fish production manager for the Michigan Department of Natural Resources. He said, “it’s just a matter of time” before the virus spreads to Lake Michigan and Lake Superior. <snip>

“This will certainly have an impact on people who raise fish in Michigan,” Whelan said. “It’s unclear what it will mean for (the state’s) hatchery system.” Chris Weeks, president of the Michigan Aquaculture Association, said the federal order will be financially devastating for people who raise trout and other fish to sell to restaurants and food brokers in neighboring states. “We have growers in this state who will be severely impacted by this rule,” Weeks said. The VHS virus found in the Great Lakes last year is a new strain of the saltwater virus, according to federal officials. The virus causes bloating in fish, lesions and bleeding from the eyes and gills; it is transmitted from fish to fish. VHS has not been detected in any aquaculture facilities in the Great Lakes basin, according to federal records. The source of VHS in the Great Lakes is not known, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture records. Some Great Lakes fish managers believe the deadly fish virus was imported here in the ballast water of ocean freighters from Europe or Asia.

enza – at 18:08

Anon,

you are not alone.

Blue Ridge Mountain Mom – at 18:23

Mississippi Queen passengers taken to Hannibal Regional Hospital

Nine ailing passengers from the Mississippi Queen riverboat have been taken to Hannibal Regional Hospital following what is believed to be a virus outbreak.

Two other passengers are believed to be sick, but they have not been admitted to HRH.

The Marion County Health Department is assisting the Center for Disease Control and the Food and Drug Administration in investigating the cause of the illness.

Vanu Bagchi of Hannibal Regional Hospital tells WGEM News doctors believe it is the Norwalk Virus Group, which is an intestinal feces-born illness. People contracted the illness through food and personal contact. Symptoms included vomiting and diarrhea.

Passengers are not being confined to the boat. The virus is not airborne. Exposure to the city of Hannibal is believed to be minimal, according to Rex Pflantz of the Marion County Health Department.

http://tinyurl.com/u5zay

Blue Ridge Mountain Mom – at 18:26

http://tinyurl.com/u96lu

The Mississippi Queen is the same ship with the 36 passengers reported ill in Kentucky earlier this week. URL is above. Anybody know how those passengers are doing in Kentucky?

Pixie – at 18:42

Blue Ridge Mountain Mom – at 17:56

Viral hemmrrhagic fatal fish virus?? It just never ends.

I’m going to go have a glass of wine now.

Blue Ridge Mountain Mom – at 18:52

DH and I are going out just the two of us this evening. I’ll be thinking about the viral increase in shrimp before a major viral outbreak from an article posted earlier this week out of Maryland, and I’ll be thinking about this new fish virus that might have come from ballast water from Asia where the viral activity would be heightened. And you know what? I won’t be ordering any seafood the warnings that if you cook it properly it will be okay be damned!

Think I’ll join you with that cup of wine. Cheers!

28 October 2006

DennisCat 10:45

Cuba

Cuba is containing an outbreak of dengue fever that has caused a number of deaths, the Pan-American Health Organization said this week, citing a Cuban government report that gave no figures. Cuba’s Minister of Health Jose Ramon Balaguer informed the Washington-based PAHO on Aug 1 that Cuba was facing an outbreak of classic dengue in four of its 14 provinces. An updated Health Ministry report on October 13, posted on PAHO’s Web site this week, said the outbreak had spread in territorial terms, but the number of cases was dropping. “All cases of dengue hemorrhagic fever have taken place in the adult population and have, in a limited number of cases, produced deaths associated with pre-existing chronic pathologies,” it said. Cuba has not said how many people died of dengue. But the Caribbean nation stepped up a campaign in August to eradicate the Aedes Aegypti mosquito that transmits the virus. Health workers have gone door-to-door spraying homes with smoke. Large Soviet-era Antonov 2 biplanes regularly roar over roof-tops spraying insecticide to kill the eggs. Most people who get infected by dengue develop a fever and rash, but recover in five days. The more virulent hemorrhagic form of the fever kills 1 in 20 of those infected.

http://tinyurl.com/y857bw

witness – at 11:53

Mexico-Oct. 25

“High Incidence of Dengue in Veracruz”--Health Secretary Jon Rementeria of Veracruz,reported 4,500 -plus cases of dengue this year.with 450 of the dangerous hemorrhagic strain.”

Rementeria said 50 percent of the cases are located in seven villages of Boca del Rio.www.plenglish.com

cottontop – at 11:57

Witness- Isn’t the hemorrhagic strain rare? Or would this be common for that part of the world? I don’t think India reported that many with hemorrhagic strain, if memory serves. (and it’s fading,ha ha)

Blue Ridge Mountain Mom – at 12:08

cottontop- the hemorrhagic strain seemed to be rare before this year. Don’t for the Lookout Posts for Central America. I am going to pull witness’s article over to there as well.

Tom DVM – at 12:16

It mutated…like every other pathogen on the face of the earth…it seems!!

cottontop – at 12:18

Blue Ridge Mountain Mom- Also take at look at the Northern African Posts, for Egypt. There has been a new development with the strain that the last person was infected with.

Blue Ridge Mountain Mom – at 12:37

Cottontop - check out the Michigan Thread where we have a new hemorrhagic fever in fish in the Great Lakes along with our low path h5n1.

It just seems to me that whatever environmental factors have allowed H5N1 to mutate are also allowing a lot of other viruses to mutate. Seems like we are on viral overload. The question is when will critical mass be reached and how bad will it be?!?

cottontop – at 12:52

Blue Ridge Mountain Mon- Where abouts are you? I’m in upstate new york, new the St. Lawerence river, and lake Ontario. I’m really wanting to start a new york thread, mainly pertaining to upstate, but time is a factor for me. I WILL get to it. (hopefully).

I agree with TomDVM, that something has happened to cause these viruses to make themselves more prevelant now, and environmental factors are certainly my thought, along with people being a factor, (too many of us). I do beleive critical mass will be reached, and it will be bad. Any kind of bad is not good news for us. We have such a delicate infrastructure, that it won’t take too much “bad”, for a mass panic. Hope we are WRONG about this.

DennisCat 13:07

Not sure where to put this but..

on the pandemicflu.gov site

http://tinyurl.com/wtfmu

they now have info about 1918 by state. Just little short narrative about what it was like in various states. It makes interesting reading.

from my home state NM:

“No one is sure when the pandemic first arrived, though it may have been carried into Carlsbad (southeast corner of the state) by members of an out-of-own circus. On October 4th, there were reports of “a few cases” in “several places.” A week later, epidemics were reported in Albuquerque, Gallup (west of Albuquerque), and Carlsbad. And the pandemic continued to spread.

In some cases, Smith and Wesson and Colt stood in the way. Fearing introduction of the disease, armed vigilantes from across the state stopped trains from flu-ridden regions and forced passengers to get back aboard and return from where they came…”

“….To his horror, he discovered that his wife had not been dead at the time she was buried after all. In his fear and haste to bury influenza victims, the doctor who had pronounced Clara dead had been mistaken. She had been buried alive, only to suffocate in her coffin…”

and that is the way it was in 1918 here.

Blue Ridge Mountain Mom – at 13:24

Cottontop - There has been a NY thread in the past. I don’t know if it is still active or not. That way you wouldn’t need to create it afterall.

I am in the southern part of the Blue Ridge in Georgia a stone’s throw from the North Carolina border and about 30 minutes from South Carolina. Unfortunately, I’m within a 100 mile radius of Atlanta, though barely. Dangit!

If you look at the current situation, India, Egypt and the Middle East bear closer scrutiny as does Indonesia. North and South America are just getting into the ballgame, but I have a feeling that we will be playing catchup pretty quick if the fish and birds in Michigan are any indicator, IMHO they are. Blast China for the no news anyway!

We’ve all been looking for the hidden mammalian reservoir for the virus. What if the local watering hole is the hidden reserve? What if it starts near/in the water and gets past back and forth from the marine life to animals back to the marine life?

cottontop – at 13:25

DennisC- I posted a website on the new for today entitled: 1918 Spanish Influenza Outbreak: The Enemy Within

Commonground – at 13:55

cottontop - there is a New York thread. Science Teacher & someone else I can’t remember, were from my area. I didn’t see anyone from your area. But we do have new people joining all the time.

witness – at 16:10

“Mystery virus hits central Puerto Rico”

 More than 200 children and adults have fallen ill with a mystery virus in central Puerto Rico, forcing officials to close down a local school, officials said.Most of the children had diarrhea and a fever, and were vomiting. The health dept. will send an epidemiologist to the school. www.localnewsleader.com
cottontop – at 18:27

Thanks gals. I thought at one time I saw the New YOrk thread. I really need to update that and get it more productive. If I come across anything I think Blue Ridge Mountain Mom can use, I’ll pass it along. My sister-in-law just left for Georgia to visit her sister, and I’m like, “you know, I wouldn’t take up much room. Throw me some bread crumbs, and a few drops of water. Check on me every now and them…” Told ya I was looking for someone heading south!

Kepp up the good work gals. Your an inspriation to me, and I’ve decided to focus more on gathering the news, and lesson the chat sessions. It makes me loose my focus, and I wanted to be a news gather, not so much a gabber(that’s to me comment. I’m a real talker!).

Karina – at 20:03

I posted this over at the West Africa thread, but it may interest you.

Interesting article. Same CFR as current Indonesia outbreaks. Wonder if they can distinguish from H5N1. Especially with 20 doctors left in the country!

Liberia: China Steps in to End Lassa Fever Outbreak

UN Integrated Regional Information Networks

October 27, 2006 Posted to the web October 27, 2006

Monrovia

The Chinese Embassy in Liberia has pitched in enough drugs to treat an outbreak of the deadly lassa fever virus that the Liberian authorities had said they were powerless to stop.

A virus transmitted by rodents, lassa fever kills up to 5,000 people ever year in West Africa. It broke-out in Nimba county northern Liberia in September, quickly killing off seven of ten people diagnosed with it. Liberia’s health ministry does not have any more recent information.

Liberian health officials contacted by IRIN in September said they were short of drugs to treat people infected with lassa fever, and the United Nations warned that the country’s ramshackle health infrastructure was not able to cope with an infectious disease.

But on Thursday, officials at the Chinese Embassy in Monrovia told IRIN they would be providing enough drugs to control the outbreak, following an emergency request from the Liberian health minister.

“The total consignment is three hundred treatment medicines that can be used to treat three hundred lassa fever patients,” a Chinese embassy official told IRIN.

The same official said China is also donating drugs to treat malaria, and has provided medical equipment to hospitals in the capital. A nine-specialist team has been providing free treatment at the John F. Kennedy hospital in Monrovia.

Some 18 officials and technicians at the Liberian health ministry have also undergone training in China in malaria treatment and the treatment and prevention of HIV/AIDS, the official said.

According to Liberia’s National Human Development Report released in August over 95 per cent of the 325 health facilities that operated before Liberia’s 14-year civil war were either completely or partially destroyed in the war. Rural health facilities were worst affected.

The same report revealed that by the time the war ended in 2003, there were less than 20 Liberian doctors left in the country. By the end of 2005, only 14 extra doctors had been trained, bringing the total to 34 doctors.

http://tinyurl.com/vmke9

Karina – at 20:05

I mean 34 doctors now - sheesh, I had to do the same correction over on the other thread!

Blue Ridge Mountain Mom – at 20:53

witness - 16:10

I tried the link from this, but I just got an advertisement and not the story. Could you check for a better link? I’d like to get this posted over on a Lookout thread. Thanks!

29 October 2006

DennisCat 00:18

Blue Ridge Mountain Mom – at 20:53 Mystery virus hits central Puerto Rico- links

I tried to trace the article (via content) and found: http://tinyurl.com/y5kw7v

it seems to date from Oct 8

Blue Ridge Mountain Mom – at 00:42

update on the Mississippi Queen passengers

Virus strikes passengers on Mississippi Queen Saturday, October 28, 2006

By Ann Pierceall

Herald-Whig Staff Writer

HANNIBAL, Mo. — Nine passengers on the Mississippi Queen paddle-wheel riverboat were taken to Hannibal Regional Hospital Friday afternoon after showing symptoms of the Norwalk virus.

The stomach flu-like illness first appeared on the boat last weekend when 36 passengers fell ill during a cruise on the Ohio River.

Vanu Bagchi, spokesman for Hannibal Regional, said the ill were mostly elderly.

“Nine people were brought into the hospital, and they’re in a contained area,” Bagchi said. “We understand two more people on the boat are showing symptoms, but they’ve not come into the hospital.”

Bagchi said the Centers for Disease Control confirmed the illness was the Norwalk virus, which he called a gastrointestinal illness. He said the ill passengers, who had boarded the boat on Wednesday in St. Louis en route to St. Paul, Minn., had been moved from the emergency room to a “separate area,” and were being hydrated.

“It is not airborne. It’s contagious by touch and through food and so forth,” he said. “This is not a life-threatening disease. They’re doing quite well.” ….. http://tinyurl.com/ylr672

DennisCat 09:12

Pakistan

Thirty more patients of Viral Hemorrhagic Fever were admitted in private and government hospitals in Karachi during last 24 hours. Forty-nine patients of the disease were discharged from hospitals after recovery. Government and private hospitals in the metropolis have discharged 49 patients of the Viral Hemorrhagic Fever during 24 hours, while 30 new cases were admitted in hospitals, focal person to the Dengue Fever Surveillance Committee Dr. Abdul Majid told Geo News. Provincial Programme Manager of the Sindh Blood Transfusion Authority Dr. Zahid Ansari has said a kit used in dengue fever diagnosis process need 96 blood samples and tests can be made after collection of the required number of samples. The patients from interior of Sindh can send blood samples to the Services Hospital’s laboratory in Karachi putting the samples in thermos with ice, he said”

http://tinyurl.com/u6mlh

DennisCat 10:43

Not bird flu, but just for those that might what to know that a weekly flu report exists.

Weekly Report: Influenza Summary Update Week 42, ending October 21, 2006

“…Since October 1, 2006, WHO and NREVSS laboratories have tested a total of 3,833 specimens for influenza viruses and 32 (0.8%) were positive. Among the 32 influenza viruses, 24 (75.0%) were influenza A viruses and 8 (25.0%) were influenza B viruses. Twenty-two (91.7%) of the 24 influenza A viruses have been subtyped: 18 (81.8%) were influenza A (H1) viruses and 4 (18.2%) were influenza A (H3) viruses. Ten states from six of the nine surveillance regions** have reported laboratory confirmed influenza this season. …”

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/

DennisCat 10:59

Oh yes, notice the chart on the cdc site. We are just coming out of the low flu part of the curve and seasonal flu death (US) should be picking up soon. The peak comes around week 10 or so of each year. That is why my “crystal ball” picked Feb-Mar for special attention.

I still haven’t got the hang of posting these things so I hope I don’t mess up the side scroll.

DennisCat 14:45

Thank you Pogge for fixing my mistake - I’ll try harder next time.

30 October 2006

DennisCat 20:42

Dengue cases hushed up as malaria

“Kolkata, Oct. 29: With the number of the dengue afflicted crossing the 700 mark in West Bengal, some doctors in government health clinics are passing of dengue cases as malignant malaria in the districts. Sources revealed that hundreds of patients come with dengue symptoms to North Bengal Medical College and Hospital everyday. However, they were being referred to as victims of malignant malaria. Therefore, the toll of dengue deaths remain much lower than the previous years.

The number of cases being hushed up exceeded 50, while the actual toll of dengue could be around 100, sources said. A hospital staff working for the last couple of years said, “The count is very high here compared to 2005….When contacted, the hospital authority denied of such malpractice. A spokesperson on behalf of the authority said, “Some outsiders are trying to bring disrepute to the hospital.”“

http://tinyurl.com/wnlme

31 October 2006

DennisCat 10:51

It is still important to watch Nepal.

Epidemic Hazard:Nepal “A mysterious disease has killed at least 20 people in two villages of west Nepal over the past 10 days, and hundreds more are sick, a health official said on Tuesday. “People suddenly catch high fever, start shivering, faint and then die,” said Ram Bahadur Chand, a senior official the district public health office in Nepalgunj, 321 km (201 miles) west of the capital, Kathmandu. Local media reports put the death toll at 36 from four remote villages near Nepalgunj.

“We have 20 confirmed deaths so far and more than 300 people are suffering from the unknown disease,” said Chand. He said 200 blood samples had been collected and medical workers had reached the affected villages. Each year Nepal’s rickety health infrastructure run by a mere 1300 doctors in 87 hospitals around the country deals with hundreds of thousands of cases of pneumonia, cholera, fever, diarrhoea and tuberculosis. Many of the poor Himalayan nation’s 26 million people are either unable to afford the cost of medical treatment or do not have access to basic health care.

http://tinyurl.com/s6d8k

DennisCat 12:50

picture of a clinic in Nepal where “At least 20 people have died of an unidentified disease over the past two weeks in west Nepal”. (picture #3)

http://tinyurl.com/y8usuf

Oremus – at 13:36

36 die of unknown illness in Banke

In Phattepur VDC alone, 23 people have died due to the disease. According to Nedeer Khan, a local, 11 people from Prirahawa village of ward number 4 and 5 of the VDC; seven from Nagakaipur village; three from Phattepur village and two from Hardaiwa village have died.

Likewise, 10 people died of the disease in Gangapur and three in Narainapur village-one died during treatment in Nepalgunj Hospital on Sunday, while two had died in the Gangapur earlier.

snip

Several patients have been going to local drugstores asking for help. “About 30–35 patients come to us daily. As we do not have any means to diagnose the ailment, we have been giving antibiotics to the patients assuming it is common cold,” said a local pharmacist, requesting anonymity.

Meanwhile, health agencies are yet to send medical teams to the villages in the region. Doctors and medicines had still not reached the region even until Tuesday afternoon.

snip

Although the “mystery” disease that has affected over 150 people in six villages of four VDCs is suspected of being Malaria, blood tests conducted by a team of Malaria inspectors and lab assistants yesterday failed to identify aliment.

“In the absence of electricity, our equipments failed to identify the disease”, the team was quoted saying.

However, malaria medicine has already been administered to patients whose condition has become critical, Gangapur Health post in charge Narayan Sharma said.

snip

Are we there yet – at 13:41

Oremus – at 13:36

What country is your article in ref to?

DennisCat 13:48

Nepal-

comment: What does this sound like to you?

Yes, they didn’t find dengee, they didn’t find malaria, and the symptoms are: “Viral fever, body ache, shivering and sudden unconsciousness “.

the numbers keep climbing. was 150 yesterday, it is now 400 today. (http://tinyurl.com/vooyw)

the deaths are starting to climb - was 20 yesterday now at 36

http://tinyurl.com/tyc7v

I sure hope they send samples and “peg” this thing fast.

Oremus – at 14:03

Are we there yet – at 13:41 Nepal

DennisC If this turns out to be H5N1 it’s killing quicker. PPF is up to 4 from a 2.5

Almost every household in these villages has at least one member suffering from the ailment, locals claimed.

Oremus – at 14:06

The lack of breathing distress makes me think it’s not H5N1. But the next pandemic doesn’t have to be H5N1.

DennisCat 18:55

Six Diagnosed with Dengue Fever in Nepalgunj

Six patients, who were admitted in the Teaching Hospital of Nepalgunj Medical College two weeks ago, diagnosed with dengue fever. “Dengue positive was found in six patients. With the suspicion of affected with dengue fever, blood sample, ‘Eliza’ of the patients was sent to Kathmandu-based National Public Health Lab for examination,” said Dr M Kidwai, director of the Nepalgunj Hospital. The patients are from Banke, Dang and Bardiya districts. They have already returned to their houses after being treated, Dr Kidwai said. Two suspected dengue patients are still undergoing treatment in the hospital. A four specialists’ group headed by Dr G D Thakur, Chief of Epidemiological and Disease Prevention Division, had found ‘negative’ after examining virus. The same patients are found suffered from dengue after ‘Eliza’ examination. The team had examined 15 dengue-affected patients in Nepalgunj Medical College and Kohalpur Medical Hospital. Blood sample, ‘Eliza’ of the 15 patients was sent to Kathmandu for examination. Of the 15 samples, six patients of Nepalgunj Medical College were found affected with dengue fever. Similarly, two dengue-suspected patients who were sent to Lukhnow, India, for further treatment, have been diagnosed with dengue fever. Altogether nine dengue patients have been found in Nepal, said Dr Kidwai. The government has not initiated any step to control this disease, Dr Kidwai said, adding, none dengue-affected patients have died in Nepal.

http://tinyurl.com/y2temc

01 November 2006

Klatu – at 12:19

Sunday October 29, 2006

State investigating dead birds

Pressconnects.com

The Department of Environmental Conservation is investigating the mysterious deaths of dozens of water birds found along the shores of eastern Lake Ontario since last weekend.

Tests for Type E Botulism and other clinical analyses are being conducted on the carcasses of gulls, grebes, and loons collected from Sodus Bay to Deer Creek Marsh by the department’s Wildlife Pathology Unit.

Type E Botulism was first documented in birds near Lake Ontario in 2002, but the mortality this year is the largest so far. In July 2002 and August 2005, several gulls were tested from the eastern basin of Lake Ontario and many of those tested positive. There have been no reports of any human illnesses associated with the outbreaks.

Type E Botulism is a specific strain of botulism most commonly affecting fish-eating birds. The associated neurotoxin produced by actively growing bacterium (Clostridium botulinum) causes paralysis in the affected birds and often results in drowning. The ingestion of the toxin produced by the botulism bacterium and can be harmful to humans who eat contaminated birds or fish. Cooking may not destroy the botulism toxin.

To date, Type E Botulism has not been found in any fish from Lake Ontario or the St. Lawrence River. Hunters and anglers are advised not to take waterfowl or fish that appear sick or are acting abnormally. Waterbirds impacted by botulism toxin cannot fly and their legs become paralyzed.

http://www.pressconnects.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061029/COLUMNISTS16/610290340/1003/

(Certain H5N1 strains also cause hind-leg paralysis. Gulls and Loons are at higher risk for the virus)

TreasureIslandGalat 12:37

Zoo’s lorikeet exhibit re-opens after birds’ deaths

01:11 PM PST on Tuesday, October 31, 2006

By TERESA BELL, kgw.com Staff

The Oregon Zoo is re-opening its popular lorikeet exhibit after several of the colorful parrots died from a mysterious illness.

Two lorikeets nuzzle at the Ore. Zoo exhibit. Veterinarians still don’t know exactly what caused 15 of the rare birds to become ill and die, but they were confident that the remaining birds’ health had stabilized.

“We identified seven different serotypes of Escherichia coli, none of which seemed particularly virulent,” said Mitch Finnegan, lead veterinarian at the Oregon Zoo. “We surmise that there must have been some additional,unknown factor that may have compromised the birds’ immune systems.”

The birds died between Sept. 9 and Sept. 18. Finnegan said others became ill but quickly recovered. However, the exhibit remained closed until zoo veterinarians received additional lab results to ensure the problem was safely contained.

“Even though the birds have been doing well since mid-September, we had to make sure we knew what type of bacteria we were dealing with before we could move forward,” said Oregon Zoo Director Tony Vecchio. “To ensure the safety of our visitors, we also compared the seven strains of bacteria to those known to cause illness in people, and, as expected, all of those tests came back negative.”

TreasureIslandGalat 12:42

Poison water is killing the birds By Sam Adams

Tragic: The body of a swan floats with glass bottles and a can in algae at Eagle Pond © POLICE are monitoring a Snaresbrook pond where restaurants are believed to be killing birds by dumping food.

The body of another dead swan was found recently near Eagle Pond in Snaresbrook Road, where dozens of wildfowl have died since the summer because of pollution caused by discarded waste.

Snaresbrook ward Cllr Sue Nolan, says police have begun to monitor the area to stop the dumping of waste, ranging from bread to raw meat, which has gradually poisoned the water.

Comment: Apparently they have noted many birds dying here just since this summer, although this dumping practice has been going on for years. Swans seem to be the most common victims.

TreasureIslandGalat 12:55

Sorry, the second story at 12:42 took place in England somewhere.

Green Mom – at 13:13

Why, why do people dump their garbage like this? With resteraunts its probably an economic thing to avoid paying trash pick up. Those resteraunts should be shut down.

03 November 2006

DennisCat 09:07

United Arab Emirates

“Responding to reports of the death of a two-year-old boy due to haemorrhagic fever and his family being infected, the Ministry of Health has said there was no confirmation of such a case and there was no need for panic. In a Press statement issued yesterday, the MoH said a medical team of specialists was formed and all needed measures such as quarantine, prevention and diagnosis were taken since the time the family was admitted to Al Qasimi Hospital. “The team eliminated 98 per cent of threats and ensured that other patients remained unaffected.” The statement also said that blood samples of the suspected cases of haemorrahgic fever had been sent to Germany and France for further testing to confirm the results obtained by the hospital and would be available within the next 24 hours….

Some of these cause relatively mild illnesses, whilst others could cause severe, life threatening disease. Examples include Lassa fever, Marburg virus, Ebola virus, Bolivian haemorrhagic fever, Korean haemorrhagic fever, and Dengue haemorrhagic fever. Diagnosis requires specialised laboratory tests on blood specimens…”

http://tinyurl.com/w62qe

DennisCat 09:10

I didn’t know that undercooked beans would do that.

China

“Twenty-one students in a private school in Xinjiang fell ill and were hospitalized after having lunch in the school’s cafeteria. The students at Zhongcheng Private School, in Wensu County, complained of headaches, bellyaches and vomiting after lunch on Wednesday, according to a local health official. Nineteen of the students aged from six to 14, were discharged from hospital the same day after treatment, said the official. Two others were still in hospital, but out of critical condition. The school said undercooked beans possibly led to the poisoning. The county’s health monitoring authorities had run tests on the students for further examination.”

http://tinyurl.com/ym3tg9

DennisCat 09:12

Venezuela

More than 100 children were poisoned after eating bad food at a breakfast at the Las Augilas VI Bolivarian Integrated Education Center, in Los Guayos in the Venezuelan sate of Carabobo. The children reported stomach pains, vomiting and diarrhea around mid-day on Tuesday, and some of them even fainted, Venezuelan newspaper El Universal reported on Thursday. Local police rushed the children to local medical centers — 28children to Las Aguitas medical center, some to the Los Guayos Integral Diagnostic Center, and those in critical conditions to the Dr Enrique Tejera Hospital in Valencia and the Carabobo Hospital in the city of Naguangua. Samples collected by health authorities showed that the poisoning was caused by the breakfast the children had eaten. Local authorities have suspended teaching at the school. The incident is the second in recent days. On Monday, 40 children suffered food poisoning in the west Venezuelan state of Aragua, where food from the School Food Program was found to be contaminated.

http://tinyurl.com/yjjx72

DennisCat 09:14

Colorado

“Health officials report a positive case of bubonic plague in the Valley. Earlier this week, local veterinarian Dr. Scott Gillespie announced he is treating a cat that has contracted bubonic plague. The cat lives in the southern portion of the Valley near the airport. Felines and other animals catch the disease by eating an infected rodent such as a rat or through a bite from an infected flea. Domestic animals can be protected from the plague with flea powder. Pet owners should also keep their animals out of wild rodent habitats. Humans can also contract bubonic plague after being bitten by an infected flea or by handling an infected rodent. Symptoms of the disease in animals and persons are similar. Typical signs of bubonic plague are high fever, chills, vomiting, extreme exhaustion and swollen lymph nodes. If caught early, treatment with antibiotics is usually effective. If diagnosis and treatment are delayed, life-threatening complications can occur, said Dr. Gillespie. Gillespie noted the risk of bubonic plague is greater during the summer months, however, whenever the days are warm, rodents are out.”

http://tinyurl.com/ya52hd

DennisCat 09:17

Comment

I don’t think that these food problems and bubonic problems are related to H5N1. I just include them since it is nice to know the “noise level” from other items to help keep things in prespective.

06 November 2006

DennisCat 00:03

Mexico

Francisco Cardoza, Secretary of Health of Baja California Sur, reported that the increase in dengue fever and dengue hemorrhagic fever cases in Los Cabos, BCS, Mexico, that total 63, requires strengthened epidemiological measures. The state agency has sent 70 additional workers to support the 40 who are working to lower larvae indices of the mosquito that transmits dengue fever and to control the outbreak. In Acapulco, Guerrero, authorities report a rise of 166 dengue cases in just six days, in both of its manifestations, which brings the total to 1,156 cases in this tourist destination. The Secretariat of Health has invested [US$1.4 million] in the fight against the transmitting mosquito. The incidence of dengue, that in its hemorrhagic fever form is life threatening, remains at high levels in the states of Veracruz, Guerrero and Quintana Roo, where 10,757 cases and five deaths have been recorded this year due to the resistance of the people to collaborate in official prevention programs, and in programs to fight the mosquito that transmits the disease.

http://tinyurl.com/y8w8vx

witness – at 00:40

Dennis at 00:03 -We better hope this is dengue— Something tells me it might not be.

a’Akova – at 01:02

There were dengue cases around Guaymas when I went through a couple years back. See a map of its distribution here.

Abraxas – at 08:41

EPIDEMIC HITS PIGS IN KODAGU

http://tinyurl.com/yd4ubl

Madikeri, Nov. 6 (KMC)- Pandi curry (pork), the number one delicacy of Kodava cuisine, may become a rarity for want of pigs.

The reason is a yet-to-be diagnosed disease that has claimed several porcine lives in Kodagu district recently. According to some veterinarians in the district, pig-rearers have complained of their stock suffering from fever, often leading to death.

The feverish symptoms, when detected about four months ago, were suspected to be throat-fever by the veterinary doctors. But after examining specimens of dead pigs at a lab in Bangalore, the possibility of throat-fever was ruled out, causing further anxiety not only among the pig-rearers, but also the consumers.

So far, nearly 35 pigs have been reported dead because of the strange disease and several more are found to be ailing.

Though pork is a delicacy for the Kodagu people, commercial breeding is almost non-existent in the district. One or more pigs are reared by farmers or planters for domestic consumption, which again is a rarity these days because it is more economical and convenient to buy pork from the market.

Since the pigs are generally reared in concrete stys in Kodagu, they are seldom let out for grazing and are fed well for fattening. Hence, instances of deaths caused by cardiac arrests are common among pigs.

However, the latest incidents of deaths caused by the strange fever is a cause of alarm, according to some pig-rearers in Kodagu. Veterinarian Dr. M.T. Manjunath said that samples collected from the deceased porcines have been sent to a lab in North India from where a report is awaited.

“Only the local-breed pigs (naadu handi) are affected by the disease. But we sell pork brought from other districts and Andhra Pradesh, which are unaffected so far,” said a few pork dealers in Kodagu.

DennisCat 11:23

Found this on some other flu site.

Viral fever spreading in Sri Lanka

Over one thousand viral fever patients have been reported from the Colombo, Mannar, Kalmunai and Jaffna areas. doubts that there can be a spread of “Chicken Gunya viral fever” (chikungunya fever) in the island. High incidence of this rare form of viral fever spread by mosquitoes has been reported in the state of Kerala in southern India.

Health authorities have taken steps to send the blood samples of these patients to Thailand for special tests. Officials of the Ministry of Health’s Epidemiology Unit say they can ascertain whether the infection is chikungunya fever after receiving the reports. However, the Ministry of Health assured that this is not an outburst of bird flu.

Over one thousand viral fever patients have been reported from the Colombo, Mannar, Kalmunai and Jaffna areas. The Epidemiology Unit said that necessary measures have been taken to control the spread of the viral fever.

http://tinyurl.com/yl4dds

DennisCat 12:55

This is a really helpful map. Notice you can select which illness you want on the world map (example dengue, flu, ….)

http://www.healthmap.org/

Nimbus – at 13:05

DennisC – at 12:55

Wow that map is an impressive resource! Nice find!

Commonground – at 13:09

Maybe we should all be worrying about dengue. Seems like it’s breaking out everywhere and in large numbers. 2nd in line would be the “mystery disease”. Gotta watch out for that also.

Tiger Lily – at 13:29

Commonground – at 13:09

You read my mind!

Outbreak of Dengue Fever in Saudi November 5, 2006

JEDDAH: Saudi media reported an outbreak of Dengue Fever in Jeddah this week. Hospital officials have so far reported four cases of dengue fever in Saudi Arabia. There have been no cases of dengue fever reported in Kuwait.

According to local reports agricultural engineer, Mohammed Habib Bukhari, has warned against a larger scale dengue fever outbreak in Jeddah.

He said stagnant pools of water left over by an abrupt, but severe downpour last week were a fertile breeding ground for dengue fever-carrying mosquitoes. Bukhari pointed out that some 40 swamps around the King Abdul Aziz International Airport in addition to the Mesk Lagoon, Jeddah’s dumping area, and the stagnant pools covering several parts of southern Jeddah were high risk areas.

Dengue is caused by the bite of the female Aedes aegypti mosquito breeding in stagnant water. It is marked by high fever, joint pain, skin rashes and a sharp drop in platelets in the blood that can prove fatal.

Several dozen people have died from the virus in a recent outbreak in India.

http://tinyurl.com/ymxhdr

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

Bangladesh

November 5, 2006

Mosquito menace adds to people’s woes Rizanuzzaman Laskar

The sudden surge of mosquito menace in the city over the last few weeks continues to aggravate the woes of city dwellers.

The sudden increase of mosquitoes has created a fear in the minds of people who dread that a dengue epidemic might be on its way to plague their lives.

Despite the rapid increase of mosquitoes, Dhaka City Corporation (DCC)’s negligence in dealing with this menace continues to frustrate the city dwellers.

<snip>

Another official blamed the general people’s indifference towards cleanliness of their premises to be a major reason of the increase in mosquitoes. “If they continue to depend on us to eradicate mosquitoes and don’t keep their premises clean, then they are bound to be disappointed,” he said.

He also blamed wetlands, ponds and canals located in the fringes of city to be the major breeding grounds of mosquitoes. “We urge our field workers to cover up an addition of one kilometre area beyond our accounted vicinity to prevent mosquitoes from migrating.”

<snip>

http://tinyurl.com/y5w75u

_______________________________________________________________________________________________

6 people died from Malaria in Jalpaiguri (regional proximity to Bangladesh) November 5, 2006

http://tinyurl.com/y3czjr

________________________________________________________________________________________________

Comment: For tracking purposes would it be useful to consider opening a new thread for reporting Dengue, Chick, and Malaria outbreaks?

Tiger Lily – at 13:33

Side scroll…Yikes. I am so sorry. What did I do to cause it?

Closed and Continued - Bronco Bill – at 13:48

Long thread closed and continued here

Last relevant post copied to new thread

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.NotBirdFluButCloseNEWS
Page last modified on November 06, 2006, at 01:48 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / News Reports for November 5

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: News Reports for November 5

05 November 2006

AnnieBat 00:49

(If you want any of the links to open in a new window, hold down the shift key and then click on the link)

Summary from Indonesia Outbreak - no change since 2 November 2006

Cases DiscussedJun-06Jul-06Aug-06Sep-06Oct-06Nov-06Total
Died, no tests22436017
Died, tested positive43233015
Other tested positive0131005
Suspected symptoms424638340124
Tested negative0626197058
Totals10148164500219

Lookout Posts – here are the links (if no Lookout Post exists, it will not be highlighted)

Please visit these threads for latest information from these regions or to add news

NoRegion NameNoRegion NameNoRegion Name
1USA8East Africa15Arab Peninsula
2Canada, Greenland and the Arctic Circle9Southern Africa and Madagascar16Central Asia
3Central America and Caribbean10Northwest Europe and British Isles17Southern Asia
4South America and Surrounding Islands11West and Southwest Europe18Mainland East Asia and Japan
5Northern Africa12Central and Southeast Europe19Southeast Asia
6West Africa13Eastern Europe and Baltic Region20Australasia Melanesia and Micronesia
7Central Africa14Middle East and Caucasus Region21Pacific Islands and Antarctic

(Please see the thread Volunteers Needed as Lookouts Worldwide if you want to help)

Separate threads for India, Indonesia and Nepal – see links below


Summary of News for 4 November 2006

(From WHO as at 31 Oct - latest update) Total human cases worldwide 256, deaths 152 (2006 – 109 with 74 deaths)

Canada

China

India

Indonesia

Nepal

United States of America

General

Link to news thread for 4 November (link News Reports for November 4 )
(Usual disclaimer about may not have captured everything. Feel free to add your own where omissions have occurred.)
Please note that I copy the links directly from the thread so if they don’t work you may need to re-visit the Thread.

AnnieBat 00:55

(UK) All fall down (Horizon documentary, BBC2, Tuesday 9pm)

ILONA AMOS (reported in TV and Radio section, Scotsman)

SOMETHING that doesn’t yet exist poses a deadly threat to the entire world, possessing the potential to exterminate millions and devastate the economy. The culprit is not visible to the naked eye, you can’t taste it and it’s undetectable by scent, sound or touch, yet scientists predict that it will kill around 85% of its prey. It’s a virus, and there’s little we can do to thwart its attack.

According to experts, these predictions of natural bioterrorism are not scientific theory, they’re global fact. Just when it seemed like the perceived threat from a human strain of bird flu had diminished, the Horizon team brings us a film, part documentary, part dramatisation, that creates a possible scenario showing how a pandemic might break out and be dealt with - or not. It doesn’t make comforting viewing.

Apparently, the current H5N1 avian flu, which has managed to jump species from birds to humans in 224 known cases, is only one to two mutations away from becoming a strain that passes easily between humans. This is terrifying news. Research shows that the terrible influenza outbreak in 1918, which killed an estimated 50 million people in 14 months at the end of the First World War, was an avian virus that had spread to humans. It was transmitted by coughs and sneezes and resulted in organ failure, massive haemorrhaging and a horrible death. Another disturbing factor was the virus’s unusual habit of sparing the usual flu victims, the very young and the old and infirm; this disease’s victims were mostly aged 25 to 35.

South-east Asia is considered to be the most likely spawning ground for a human strain of H5N1 and therefore the origin of any pandemic. In response to this, the World Health Organisation is keeping a close eye on remote communities that could harbour a mutant virus, ready to instigate strict quarantine measures and a massive programme of anti-viral drug treatment.

As winter is upon us once more, Horizon’s docu-drama could just spark a stampede for flu jabs. But remember, we can run but we can’t hide. We’re all doomed, doomed. And if the dreaded lurgy passes us by, I’m sure there will be a new film along soon to tell us what to be afraid of next.

enza – at 01:50

What is the new srain that has emerged in Chin;a, per the above news link?

anon_22 – at 01:56

That’s the ‘Fujian-like’ virus, which has rapidly become the dominant strain, replacing the multiple sublineages that existed there before. I’ve intended to write up that paper, haven’t had time yet, probably today or tomorrow, so hang on to your questions. :-)

enza – at 02:17

Thanks a-22, I’ll be patient.

lugon – at 03:35

More details:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/horizon/

Horizon

Tue 7 Nov, 9:00 pm - 10:30 pm 90mins

Pandemic: Horizon tells the story of what will happen when the next flu pandemic hits. And this isn’t common or garden bird flu, this is much much worse. It’s the next strain.

the next strain


Comment on the above link:

South-east Asia is considered to be the most likely spawning ground for a human strain of H5N1 and therefore the origin of any pandemic. In response to this, the World Health Organisation is keeping a close eye on remote communities that could harbour a mutant virus, ready to instigate strict quarantine measures and a massive programme of anti-viral drug treatment.

As winter is upon us once more, Horizon’s docu-drama could just spark a stampede for flu jabs. But remember, we can run but we can’t hide.

We’re all doomed, doomed. And if the dreaded lurgy passes us by, I’m sure there will be a new film along soon to tell us what to be afraid of next.

Commenter full in the “no more scares please” type of denial, it seems; not even in the “there’s a problem but nothing we can do” situation.

We need to shift public focus from the problem to the solution (TLC) and to the solutions for the second order problems and so on.

lugon – at 03:39

The full account about the BBC programme:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/tvradio/programmes/horizon/broadband/tx/pandemic/

And their main link:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_depth/world/2005/bird_flu/default.stm

The BBC is a powerful voice.

uk bird – at 07:04

There might be web discussions/comments on message boards on the BBC after this programme. It might be useful for some of us to chip in.

They’ll probably allow links to this site.

Horizon’s trend towards dramatisations appeals to the less scientifically minded but contains a lot less science.

anonymous et al – at 09:42

Good Morning All, Here is an article from the Toronto Sun. (Ask your Dr. for a prescription for an anti-viral)

 Dr. Allison McGeer, director of infection control at Mt.Sinai hospital in Toronto, is quoted in the article as saying, “ With drug companies ramping up their production of these drugs, the supply problem is less an issue than before.                                                                                                                                                          
 “I think it is now very hard to say to people you should not be doing it at all,” said McGeer, though she cautioned that people need to know how to store these drugs and how to use them properly”.  

Just wondering if the medical profession is now changing or has changed their opinion on supplying anti-virals, in advance, to the public. If so, what has made them change their minds?

I’m also posting this on Canadian Preppers 3 thread.

http://www.torontosun.com/Lifestyle/2006/11/05/2242129-sun.html

Nimbus – at 10:39

And now for something completely different…

Hong Kong testing anti-bacterial nano-coating in subways

Hong Kong is now testing an anti-bacterial silver-titanium dioxide nanoparticle coating on surfaces in its subway cars, says ABC News. Expect to see the same in London’s tube in the near future.

    With news of powerful flu strains like the avian flu and hand-transmissible diseases such as colds, public transportation operators in Asia and Europe have considered using a new disinfectant in their undergrounds. Many surfaces that people touch every day in the tube, as the London subway system is called, also carry thousands of bacteria and germs, according to experts.

    “Public transportation is a very common way, we know, of how diseases … spread,” says Ben Mascall, spokesman with MTR Corp., which operates the railway in Hong Kong and has bid for two new rail franchises in the United Kingdom.

    “Some viruses can stay on a surface for 24 hours,” says Dr. John Trainer, at the University of Rochester in New York.

    Hong Kong is among the first cities to test one of the latest anti-flu products, nano silver-titianium dioxide coating, or NSTDC. It is applied to all surfaces inside a subway car. The preliminary tests conducted in Hong Kong show that the disinfectant reduces the amount of bacteria by 60 percent, says Mascall.

Ironically, titanium dioxide nanoparticles are also found in sunscreens, which the ETC Group wants banned pending further studies of their potential toxicity.

http://tinyurl.com/y7nwtk

Nimbus – at 10:45

And yet more nanotechnology in the news:

Imagine If Killing Flu Viruses And Other Microbes Were As Simple As Turning On A Light

Exposing a unique surface coating to light may in fact hold the key to protecting you from virtually all viruses and bacteria, including the feared avian flu.

Laboratory testing of a novel, permanent nano-coating, developed in collaboration by researchers at North Carolina State University College of Textiles and Emory University School of Medicine, has been shown to kill or inactivate most viruses and bacteria when exposed to visible light. Early tests have shown that the coating kills 99.9 percent of influenza viruses and 99.99 percent of vaccinia virus, which causes rash, fever, head and body aches.

The coating technology was developed by Dr. Stephen Michielsen, associate professor in NC State’s College of Textiles, and Drs. Igor Stojiljkovic and Gordon Churchward, associate professors at Emory University’s School of Medicine in Atlanta.

NC State has applied for a patent on the invention, which has been licensed to Research Triangle Park-based start-up LaamScience, Inc. The company - whose name stands for Light Activated Anti Microbials - has raised more than $400,000 in seed financing from North Carolina angel investors that will enable it to optimize the coating and begin developing product prototypes.

Prototypes will be used in performance trials targeting hospital areas including waiting rooms. The company is also developing a room air purifier that incorporates its nano-coated filter technology. Other potential application areas include anti-viral filter systems for airplanes and businesses, as well as for a variety of uses for first responders and the military, including anti-viral masks. Perhaps equally important, the invention may be used to make everyday objects resistant to viruses and bacteria in the presence of light.

“We have many exciting opportunities to use these proprietary coatings to stop infection before it causes disease and death,” says Tom Roberg, chief executive officer of LaamScience. “The technology developed at NC State and Emory University provides a huge opportunity to impact the health and welfare of people throughout the world.”

The invention grew out of Michielsen’s research into nanotechnology and its use to modify the surface of polymers and fibers. The thin coating is a type of dye that can be applied to the surface of all types of fabrics and materials. When exposed to light, the coating acts as a photo catalyst, sparking a chemical reaction with air and killing most viral and bacterial microbes.

“In the presence of light, a specific reaction takes place on the surface that makes the air poisonous to the microbes, yet harmless to people,” Michielsen says. “The coating doesn’t wear out and continually regenerates so it’s able to continue killing viruses again and again.”

<snip>

http://tinyurl.com/yyjzub

witness – at 12:04

I couldn’t resist-----Norovirus cancels flu pandemic meeting at Isle of Capri Oct. 31----Just google title if you would like more info

Many Cats – at 12:05

COMMENT:

I would venture to say that most microbes are harmless to humans and many are beneficial. Science must proceed with caution despite the hopes for an H5N1 preventative. The road to Hell and all that… Don’t expect to see this technology available for quite awhile unless a pandemic is seen as imminent by TPTB, at which point all bets are off. Meantime, let’s not make things worse with unintended consequences.

Bronco Bill – at 15:48

SORTA NEWS

In today’s Sunday newspaper comics in the US, there is a syndicated comic strip called “Luann”, about the angst and wonder of a teenage girl. In today’s strip, one of the things that caught my eye is that the writer of the comic strip listed, along with fires, tidal waves, nuclear holocaust and her ex-boyfriend dating someone else, bird flu as something that a 16-year-old would worry about.

Just thought it was interesting that a comic strip writer might come up with that.

On the web here. Click on the calendar for 11/05.

Jane – at 16:53

Saudi Arabia A 2-year-old boy has died, and his family is infected with a hemorrhagic fever. They are waiting for test results.

 <snip>medical sources at the laboratory of Al Qasimi Hospital said that viral haemorrhagic fevers (VHFs) are a group of illnesses that are caused by several distinct families of viruses — Arena virus, Filoviridae, Bunyaviridae and Flavivirus.

Some of these cause relatively mild illnesses, whilst others could cause severe, life threatening disease. Examples include Lassa fever, Marburg virus, Ebola virus, Bolivian haemorrhagic fever, Korean haemorrhagic fever, and Dengue haemorrhagic fever.<snip>

They take pains to say they are trying to be transparent about this illness.

http://visz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/woalert_read.php?id=8240&cat=dis&lang=eng

Jane – at 17:13

RSOE hazard site is amazing. How do they collect all this information?

 In Austria there’s a biohazard situation, but the article is in Hungarian.  Slovenia has a cow with Mad Cow disease.  There is anthrax “confirmed (?)” in India, Andhra Pradesh state, Kothapeta (city).  There is typhoid fever in the Philippines, Barang in Agusan del Sur Province, 478 dead since 10/31, contaminated water from a particular well is blamed.   There’s a “technological disaster” in China, Inner Mongolia, which destroyed or damaged 100+ houses in what China called a 4.2 earthquake but which didn’t register on equipment at USGS or another monitoring site.  whew.  (It’s so busy today that while I’m reading the list, the page goes blank and the map comes back with an update.  At least there’s only one blinking chicken now, at Niagra Falls.)

http://visz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/woalert.php?lang=eng

DennisCat 17:58

Jane – at 17:13 Hungarian.

Yes it is a Hungarian site. The problem (for us English speakers) is that not all the alerts are translated. They also have occational “down times” and mixed up format.

The only free Hungarian translater I have found is:

http://www.humanitas-international.org/newstran/more-trans.htm

THe second one on the left. It is not a good translater but it does help a little.

Commonground – at 18:11

Jane at 17:13, if you go to the “event report” icon and click on it you will get this (pasted below). We can all enter any information we find in newspapers and give the link and also the toggletext (or whatever translation site we used). We here at the Wiki get information quicker than this site does. Here’s the paste:

Dear Visitor,

Our organization, the National Association of Radio-Distress Signalling and Infocommunications (RSOE), is located in Budapest, Hungary. As a national non-profit prominent public organization we operate information systems on the River Danube, River Tisza and the Storm-Warning System for Lake Balaton. Furthermore our association serves as the official Infocommunication Service of the National Disaster Management of Hungarian Republic.

We also operate the HAVARIA Information Service. The main aim of this service is to gather seismical, meterological, epidemic and all other datas around the world related to natural and human disasters and calamities, and to forward these datas to the co-operational governmental organisations (Hungarian Ministry of Interior - National General-Directorate of Disaster Management, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, etc.) as well as to inform the citizens.

The HAVARIA Information Service is monitoring and processing data of approximately 600–700 news sources, many researching institutes and realtime data of forecasting services. Even so we do not have information about many events. Our association operates this service without any subsidy so we can not process the information, which are not in English (or in Hungarian) language (e.g.:Spanish, French, Italian, etc.).

Please help our task. After a registration and a short verification you can enter to the protected area. Here you can fill out a data format. With this filled data sheet you can report us events (emergency situations or disaster forecasting). You can also make reports in the Havaria database.

We will not serve the name and email, which was given at registration to third parties.

Thank you:

                RSOE HAVARIA Emergency Information Service
anonymous – at 18:11

http://tinyurl.com/yb5yjb Mysterious Illness Effects South Valley Camp California, USA (?)

11/04/06 - Dozens of kids are sickened after spending the week at a sixth grade camp in the hills above Springville. The problem is a mystery, but health officials are comparing it to a virus that has sickened hundreds of cruise ship passengers.

Camp officials say the kids were suffering from stomach flu like symptoms like nausea, vomiting, and diarrhea. Officials from the health department were called in and say the kids may have been sickened by a norovirus, which causes stomach flu.

One childhood illness is apparently making a comeback. An outbreak of whooping cough has hit at least 16 people at Boston’s Children’s Hospital. Similar outbreaks have been reported in North Carolina, Chicago, Indiana, and Texas.

The symptoms of whooping cough are similar to those reported at Sci-Con, but they usually take longer to develop.

Nimbus – at 18:27

Experts refute emerging of new strain of bird flu in S. China: China Daily

BEIJING, Nov. 5 (Xinhua) — China Daily, the only English Language national newspaper in the country, is to publish a report about Chinese experts who have denied the emerging of a new strain of bird flu in some part of the country.

    The full text of the report is as follows:

  The nation’s leading bird flu experts Saturday refuted a report that a new strain of bird flu had emerged in southern China, published by a foreign publication and widely cited by foreign media recently.

    Scientists in Hong Kong and the United States said in a report released last week that a new strain of bird flu called the “Fujian-like virus”, first isolated in the southern Chinese province of Fujian last year, had become prevalent in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Laos, Malaysia, and Thailand.

    Chen Hualan, director of the National Bird Flu Reference Laboratory at the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, rebuked the report, published in the US-based Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences saying its claims “lack scientific proof”.

    “The so-called ‘Fujian-like virus’ is not a new variant of the virus,” she said, “Gene sequence analysis of the virus shows that it shares high conformity with the H5N1 virus that was isolated in Hunan when bird flu broke out in early 2004.”

    Samples from every domestic bird flu outbreak are sent for isolation and gene sequence analysis at Chen’s lab.

    Chen said that in 2005 and 2006, the lab had isolated some viruses in waterfowl in southern China which was reported to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE).

    “These viruses all remain steady in gene type and there is no marked change in their biological characteristics,” she said.

    Chen said there was only one new variant of the virus, which was isolated to north China’s Shanxi Province and the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region at the beginning of this year and has been reported to the FAO and OIE.

    Experimental results show that the variant is weak in triggering disease in mammals and a new vaccine, which has been put into use in these areas, has effectively brought it under control.

    Chen also defended the effectiveness of China’s bird flu vaccine, saying that it had a good effect, in response to the report’s surmise that the current vaccine was less effective for the “Fujian-like virus”.

    The report claimed that through the analysis of serum samples from 76 chickens for signs of antibodies against three H5N1 variants, including the Fujian-like strain, they found almost all of the samples displayed two to four times more antibodies to the other two variants than to the Fujian virus, suggesting that the vaccine given to the chickens was less effective against that strain.

    Chen said that the evaluation of the vaccine was “not scientific” as where the chickens were from and whether they had been vaccinated was unknown.

    Chen said that since the country launched a strategy of culling and vaccination to curb bird flu in the later half of 2005, the number of bird flu cases has plummeted.

    Statistics from the Ministry of Agriculture showed that more than 95 percent of domestic poultry had been vaccinated from January to October. Ten cases of bird flu broke out in poultry populations from January to October this year, there were 50 cases in 2004 and 31 last year.

    Shu Yuelong, director of the National Influenza Centre at the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, also refuted the report’s allegation that five people in southern China were actually infected by the new “Fujian-like virus”.

    Shu said that altogether 16 variants of bird flu viruses have been found in the 20 confirmed cases of human infections in the Chinese mainland since October 2005, seven in 2005 and 13 in 2006.

    “Fifteen out of the 16 variants were isolated from cases in southern China and they belong to the same gene type,” Shu said, “There is no proof that five of them were infected by a new mutated virus.”

    Shu said that the viruses isolated in South China and northern China were very different and also differed a lot with the virus isolated in Vietnam and Thailand.

    Chen Hualan also attacked the report’s allegations that the “Fujian-like virus” was causing a third wave of prevalence of bird flu in Southeast Asia.

    “Judging from the actual situation, these allegations are all subjective and arbitrary surmises,” she said. 

http://tinyurl.com/te4ej

anonymous – at 18:30

COMMENT - whooping cough symptoms are nothing like stomach flu.

Whooping cough is frequently diagnosed as “a virus”, bronchitis, or general respiratory infection. Clinicians usually diagnose based on “clinical history” and most of the time it is NOT confirmed with lab tests, unless there’s a compelling reason: a hospitalization or contact with a confirmed outbreak.

What are the symptoms of whooping cough? 7 to 10 day incubation period, first stage symptoms typically lasting one to two weeks, an infected person has symptoms characteristic of an upper respiratory infection, including runny nose, sneezing, low-grade fever, mild, occasional cough, similar to the common cold.

Because the symptoms are nonspecific, pertussis is usually not diagnosed until the appearance of the characteristic cough of the paroxysmal stage. Complications include pneumonia, encephalitis, pulmonary hypertension, and secondary bacterial superinfection.

Methods used in laboratory diagnosis include culturing of nasopharyngeal swabs on Bordet-Gengou medium, polymerase chain reaction (PCR), immunofluorescence (DFA), and serological methods. The bacteria can be recovered from the patient only during the first three weeks of illness, rendering culturing, PCR, and DFA useless after this period.

Whooping cough on the rise in California - The California Health Department announced in the fall of 2005 that the number of people developing whooping cough is increasing in California. For the first eight months of the year, the number of cases reported in California (1,276) was almost triple the number of cases reported during the same period in 2004 (450). The number of deaths and illnesses from whooping cough reported through August, 2005, had already surpassed the totals for the entire year of 2004. Other areas of the United States are experiencing the same trend.

anonymous – at 19:14

The Boston Globe - Boston, US More whooping cough cases confirmed at Boston hospital

November 4, 2006,-Boston health authorities say 10 more staff members at Children’s Hospital have been diagnosed with whooping cough, and they are investigating whether a 3-year-old caught the disease outside the hospital or after coming for treatment.

A total of 25 workers, most from the emergency and intensive care departments, have been confirmed to have whooping cough since a 19-month-old boy was admitted to the hospital with the disease in September.

Another 200 staffers are being tested after showing cold-like symptoms and are off duty until they complete a five-day course of antibiotics.

“It’s putting pressure on the system, in terms of having the staff we require to care for the patients, but we’ve been able to manage,” Children’s Hospital spokeswoman Michelle Davis told The Boston Globe.

The outbreak is the second at a Massachusetts hospital this fall. About 30 workers at St. Vincent Hospital in Worcester were infected in September, likely after a surgeon unknowingly got the disease on military reserve duty, health officials said.

SANTA FE, N.M. — An outbreak of whooping cough in Santa Fe County is causing the state Department of Health to investigate what’s going on.

Two dozen cases of pertussis, also known as whooping cough, were reported between August and October in the county. And these victims range in age from babies to adults with classic symptoms. In the 1970′s about 1,000 cases of whooping cough were reported, and in the last couple of years that number has jumped to 25,000.

anon?

Gwinnett County, Georgia, 11/05/2006, Whooping cough suspected at local elementary school.

LAWRENCEVILLE - A Dacula Elementary School student has a suspected case of whooping cough and the school’s principal has asked parents to be on the lookout for the disease.

Dacula Elementary Principal Karen Bryant sent a letter to parents Friday advising them of the suspected case and asking them to look for symptoms in their own children. The letter tells parents to keep an eye out for cold symptoms and a cough that worsens over a one- to two-week period and says that people who are infected my have long series of coughs or coughing fits, vomiting or difficulty breathing. The school system is working with the county health department…

anon?

Chicago, November 5, 2006 - Whooping cough outbreak hits New Trier High School. Parents warned of 13 cases at Winnetka campus.

The Cook County Department of Public Health stepped in Friday to warn parents that New Trier Township High School has been hit by a whooping cough outbreak, with 13 cases detected since the beginning of the school year. Public Health officials said “sustained transmission” of pertussis, or whooping cough, had been documented at the school’s Winnetka campus, where sophomores through seniors attend classes.

School officials also were calling and e-mailing parents, warning them not to send a child with repeated coughs to school, said New Trier health services coordinator Colleen Kahler.

anon?

Dallas, TX, November 4, 2006 - 4 have whooping cough. Centennial cases lead Collin County officials to advise caution.

Collin County health officials are trying to quash a whooping cough outbreak that’s infected at least four children at one Plano school. “Having this many children in one location [infected] would be considered an outbreak.”

In 2005, more than 75 whooping cough cases were diagnosed in Collin County. In 2006, there have been just 13.

Last year was unusual because whole families in Collin County came down with whooping cough. Health officials are asking parents of young babies to shield them from anyone exhibiting a cough – even a mild one. The four children from Centennial who were infected were not hospitalized, and they had all been vaccinated.

Leigh Hornsby, spokeswoman for the county, said no one has died of whooping cough this year or last in Collin County. Last year, eight people in Texas died of whooping cough, Ms. Glowicz said.

Curtis Allen, a spokesman for the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said about 7,900 cases of whooping cough were diagnosed in Americans in 2000. As of 2005, that figure spiked to 26,000. “We’re not 100 percent sure why that is,” Mr. Allen said, “but it could be attributed to better surveillance and better reporting of the disease.”

“It’s all over the United States. Some areas have greater outbreaks than others,” Mr. Allen said.

anon?

http://tinyurl.com/ymj5kd [Don’t know what state or town] Washington Daily, November 5 - There are at least 24 “symptomatic” children in the Grassy Ridge community of western Hyde County who have shown signs of whooping cough, and a handful of people in Beaufort and Washington counties are potential contacts of the cases.

Gibbs would not release exact figures regarding the number of diagnosed cases, probable cases and potential cases. She would say, however, that most of the cases affected children. Gibbs she “felt sure” the scope of potential cases included Beaufort and Washington counties. “It may even go beyond there,” she said.

The Hope Mennonite School in Grassy Ridge was closed last week after 24 of 27 students were deemed “symptomatic,” meaning they showed signs of the communicable disease, Gibbs said. “But the health department did not close the school. We didn’t make that decision,” she said.

Health-department workers believe that whooping cough has been affecting the western Hyde County community for at least a month. “We think the case originated from out of state,” Gibbs said.

anon?

Purdue Student News, Sunday, October 26, 2006 - Whooping cough case concerns health officials. An adult at Purdue’s child care center was diagnosed with pertussis, a highly contagious infection of the respiratory system identified by a “whooping” sound at the end of severe coughs.

Sarah Sayger, clinical director at the Student Health Center, said the center is on the lookout for more cases of pertussis, especially because there has been an increase in cases nationwide since 2004.

“In the last year, 2006, I don’t think we’ve had any confirmed cases (besides this one), but we always try to keep an index of suspicion,” she said. “The year before, we did have at least two clinical cases; it acted as if it was whooping cough by the symptoms.”

Pertussis, which has symptoms similar to a cold, can be spread when infected people cough and others come into contact with the germ. Sayger said surfaces such as doorknobs and desks in classrooms get contaminated easily, but that Purdue has a population of “thoroughly immunized” students.

anon?

http://tinyurl.com/yhjdug - Papau, New Guinea. Whooping cough, flu threatens Bukawa

AN outbreak of influenza and whooping cough is spreading through Nawae district, Morobe province, leaving scores of afflicted children in its wake, according to reports reaching Lae. Health workers in the district yesterday reported the outbreak was putting intense pressure on the Bukawa aid post, the only health facility in the stricken area. Community health workers Linson Agi and his wife, Christine, who are based there, said six villages with a population of about 12,000 people are being threatened by the outbreak. “The problem was now getting worse so the two of us, the aid post committee, our church leader and the councillors of ward 7 and 8 are calling for urgent help from the relevant health authorities,” Mr Agi said in a letter to The National. The villages affected are Bukawa, Awadec, Mundala, Bocgapung, Ukilum and Yambo. Mr Agi said the aid post was treating six cases every day and this rate was certain to rise. “Before it gets worse, we request full medical supplies for the Bukawa Aid Post. This is the first time we have experienced such an outbreak,” Mr Agi said. He wrote that urgent assistance was needed to reign in the outbreak. Provincial programme advisor for Health Dr Likei Theo said his office had not received any reports of the outbreak. “When we do, we will dispatch a medical team into the area to investigate. “I am going to check this out,” Dr Theo said when the National informed him of the letter from the community health workers in the area. Early this year, the same area suffered an outbreak of measles, prompting a health team to visit the area and bring the situation under control.

witness – at 19:49

There are so many gaping holes in this report, I am leaving it to the great minds here to pick it apart at the seams I first posted this a few days ago and Jane posted it again today at 16:53

“Toddlers death due to adverse drug reaction”---This is about the death of the 2 year old--- His father and sister were also admitted to the hospital with symptoms.-----

Two nurses that took care of him are now sick

‘They have been hospitalized

Could someone please post the entire article. It makes no sense whatsoever.Please look at gulfnews.com or google title

cottontop – at 20:15

I would like to thank Jane @16:53 for posting the alert map website. I passed this along to commonground, (I think it was commonground), last month, and lost my address for it. I spent all Saturday night going back through the threads from Oct, where I thought I might have posted it, and did not find it. So, I’m happy to see someone else has it. It really is an awsome site. Although it didn’t look like that last month, and it’s scarey to see it so active. The biohazard signs get me. Thanks Jane!

AnnieBat 20:32

As per Witness at 19:49, I found this article in the Gulf News - hmmmm - bolding is mine.

Toddler’s death “due to adverse drug reaction” By Nina Muslim, Staff Reporter

Dubai: An adverse drug reaction is suspected to have caused the death of a two-year-old boy in Sharjah instead of a “mystery illness”, said the Health Ministry official in charge of investigating the case.

The toddler, a Syrian, died two days after he was admitted to Al Qasimi Hospital on October 29 with high fever and bleeding from the nose. His father and 8-year old sister, who have been discharged, were also admitted to the hospital with high fever.

Dr Abdul Gaffar Al Hawi, who is in charge of investigating the case, told Gulf News that pathologists and experts from the ministry and Department of Health and Medical Services (Dohms) were “98 per cent” sure that the boy’s death was due to an adverse drug reaction.

“We believe, 98 per cent, that his death was due to drug sensitivity” based on tests done on the baby’s liver biopsy, he said.

“There is some necrosis and fatty tissue in the liver, which usually indicate drug interaction. The child [probably] died from the adverse drug event, not from the illness,” he said, adding that the adverse drug reaction would account for the bleeding.

He said the baby’s mother, who is an X-ray specialist at the hospital, most likely gave him medicine when he first took ill. When the child started bleeding, she took him to the hospital.

Doctors are warning the public on the dangers of self-medication, following the death of the boy. Dr Mohammad Abu Al Khair, drug consultant with Abu Dhabi General Authority for Health Services, told Gulf News that people should always seek advice from doctors, who need to run tests before prescribing any medication to anybody, especially children.

“They should avoid acting like a doctor and making decisions on behalf of kids and sharing medicine between one child and another as infants’ organs may not be developed enough to metabolise the medicine,” he said.

“We had a 5-year-old boy today who took 19 tablets of asthma medication. He had to be admitted to hospital and is under observation.”

Dr Al Hawi, who is also assistant undersecretary for curative medicine, told Gulf News that doctors have not determined which drug was responsible. The mother is too distraught to answer questions, he said. He said they still did not know what the viral infection was, which sickened the Syrian family, as results of the blood samples sent to German laboratories were delayed.

Nurses’ fever may be due to worries

Dubai Two nurses who were taken ill while caring for the sick toddler and admitted for observation at Al Qasimi Hospital have been discharged, and their illness ruled “unrelated”. A 2-year-old boy, was hospitalised for high fever and bleeding from his nose last Sunday. He died on Tuesday of a suspected adverse drug reaction.

Dr Abdul Gaffar Al Hawi, assistant undersecretary of curative medicine at the Ministry of Health, told Gulf News that the two nurses developed low-grade fevers while taking care of the toddler and were admitted to the hospital, where they remained until Friday, as a precautionary measure.

He said the doctors later ruled the nurses’ fever as unrelated to the Syrian family’s illness.

Dr Juma Bilal Fairuz, federal director of preventive medicine, told Gulf News that the nurses’ fever was most likely a “psychosomatic response” to the intense scrutiny surrounding the family and their “mystery illness”.

“They heard all the fuss about the illness, got so worried that they started showing symptoms and thought they had it too,” he said.

Link at http://www.gulfnews.com/nation/Health/10080291.html

DennisCat 20:56

UK

“Three million body bags may be stockpiled in disaster plans”

“Secret plans to stockpile millions of body bags to be used in the event of a flu pandemic, terrorist attack or other disaster are being considered by the Government and health experts, according to a senior minister.

The proposals reflect mounting concern at the lack of space to store bodies in morgues and bury them in the event of mass deaths…

http://tinyurl.com/y8bfgt

Grace RN – at 21:26

Whooping cough/pertussis has such a characteristic cough that after you hear it once, you’d probably be able to diagnosis it again without tests. It’s like the worse case of croup you’ve ever heard, very “whooop….whooooop”…

Ree – at 22:00

Dubai: Mystery illness could be herpes encephalitis Date: Sun 5 Nov 2006


Health authorities are investigating the death of a 2-year-old boy who died 2 days after he was admitted for high fever, unconsciousness and bleeding from the nose. The toddler died on Tue 31 Oct 2006 after he was admitted to Al Qasimi Hospital on Sun [29 Oct 2006], according to his distressed father, who was later admitted to hospital along with his 8-year old daughter with similar symptoms.

Dr. Ali Shakar, undersecretary at the Health Ministry, told Gulf News that the father and sister were recovering from their illness. [snip] He also said that ministry officials suspected that the boy died of herpes encephalitis, a viral infection characterized by high fever, seizures and depressed level of consciousness. He added that the Ministry could not confirm the diagnosis until they received the results of blood tests sent to laboratories in Germany and the UK, expected today [Sun 5 Nov 2006].


Interesting comments from ProMed mods at the end. I seem to remember seeing this earlier, though. Was this before or after drug interaction article?

link to article

Klatu – at 22:01

Experts refute new bird flu strain claim

(China Daily)

Updated: 2006–11–06 07:19

“”“The nation’s leading bird flu experts Sunday refuted a report that a new strain of bird flu had emerged in southern China, published by a foreign publication and widely cited by foreign media recently.

Scientists in Hong Kong and the United States said in a report released last week that a new strain of bird flu called the “Fujian-like virus,” first isolated in the southern Chinese province of Fujian last year, had become prevalent in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Laos, Malaysia, and Thailand.

Chen Hualan, director of the National Bird Flu Reference Laboratory at the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, rebuked the report, published in the US-based Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, saying its claims “lack scientific proof.” ‘’‘

“The so-called ‘Fujian-like virus’ is not a new variant of the virus,” she said “Gene sequence analysis of the virus shows that it shares high conformity with the H5N1 virus that was isolated in Hunan when bird flu broke out in early 2004.”

Samples from every domestic bird flu outbreak are sent for isolation and gene sequence analysis at Chen’s lab. Chen said that in 2005 and 2006, the lab had isolated some viruses in waterfowl in southern China which was reported to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE).

“These viruses all remain steady in gene type and there is no marked change in their biological characteristics,” she said.

Chen said there was only one new variant of the virus, which was isolated in North China’s Shanxi Province and the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region at the beginning of this year and has been reported to FAO and OIE.

Experimental results show that the variant is weak in triggering disease in mammals and a new vaccine, which has been put into use in these areas, has effectively brought it under control.

Chen also defended the effectiveness of China’s bird flu vaccine, saying that it had a “good effect,” in response to the report’s surmise that the current vaccine was less effective for the “Fujian-like virus.”

The report claimed that through the analysis of serum samples from 76 chickens for signs of antibodies against three H5N1 variants, including the Fujian-like strain, they found almost all of the samples displayed two to four times more antibodies to the other two variants than to the Fujian virus, suggesting that the vaccine given to the chickens was less effective against that strain.

Chen said that the evaluation of the vaccine was “not scientific” as where the chickens were from and whether they had been vaccinated were unknown. Statistics from the Ministry of Agriculture showed that more than 95 per cent of domestic poultry had been vaccinated between January and October.

Shu Yuelong, director of the National Influenza Centre at the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, also refuted the report’s allegation that five people in southern China were actually infected by the new “Fujian-like virus.”

Shu said that altogether 16 variants of bird flu viruses have been found in the 20 confirmed cases of human infections on the Chinese mainland since October 2005 seven in 2005 and 13 in 2006. “Fifteen out of the 16 variants were isolated from cases in southern China and they belong to the same gene type,” Shu said. “There is no proof that five of them were infected by a new mutated virus.”

http://tinyurl.com/y2tzcz

Ree – at 22:04

Just looked again - the drug reaction is the more current story on the child in Dubai. Too quick to post..

tjclaw1 – at 22:15

witness – at 12:04 “I couldn’t resist-----Norovirus cancels flu pandemic meeting at Isle of Capri Oct. 31----Just google title if you would like more info “

Yup, I saw it in the news. I work near there.

Pixie – at 22:21

UAE

3 November 2006 / http://tinyurl.com/ummdp

Haemorrhagic fever not confirmed: MoH

SHARJAH — Responding to reports of the death of a two-year-old boy due to haemorrhagic fever and his family being infected, the Ministry of Health has said there was no confirmation of such a case and there was no need for panic.

In a Press statement issued yesterday, the MoH said a medical team of specialists was formed and all needed measures such as quarantine, prevention and diagnosis were taken since the time the family was admitted to Al Qasimi Hospital.

“The team eliminated 98 per cent of threats and ensured that other patients remained unaffected.” <snip>

Commenting on the case in Al Qasimi Hospital, the sources said the hospital could not specify the kind of the virus and the illness until the results arrived. <snip>

aurora – at 22:40

“Shu said that altogether 16 variants of bird flu viruses have been found in the 20 confirmed cases of human infection” and “There is no proof that five of them were infected by a new mutated virus.”

She is claiming that the “variants” are only small changes that don’t constitute mutations, right? How many changes must there be before we call it a mutation?

K from Mi – at 22:41

The UK has a population of about 60,000,000 and ordered 3,000,000 body bags. That’s 5% of their population.

DennisCat 22:51

K from Mi – at 22:41 3M body bags

yes and notice that that was for their over flow if there is a “lack of space to store bodies in morgues “

Do you think they know something we don’t?

cottontop – at 22:53

That’s a scary read, K from MI. To hear of a country stockpiling body bags, sounds like they know something we don’t. Of course it’s just precaution. Not trying to read more into it.

holysmoke – at 22:54

http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/major_global_bird_migration_routes_to_the_arctic

Sorry, could not get it to come up as a link…but someone asked for a good migration map & this is a nice site.

holysmoke – at 22:56

Thank you ‘link fairy’

AnnieBat 23:18

Australian Laboratory to Work With Indonesia’s Bird Flu Teams

By Vesna Poljak (Link http://tinyurl.com/yj4fpg)

Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) — Veterinarians at the Australian Animal Health Laboratory will work with authorities and researchers to diagnose and monitor bird flu in Indonesia, the country most affected by the lethal H5N1 strain of the virus.

Australia’s AusAID international development agency contributed A$1.6 million ($1.2 million) for the two-year project, which aims to ensure that Indonesia’s lab network can rapidly diagnose the H5N1 strain of avian influenza, the government said in an e-mailed statement today.

More than a third of the 152 human H5N1 fatalities recorded globally the past three years have occurred in Indonesia, where the virus has been found in fowl in 30 out of 33 provinces. Millions could die if H5N1 becomes easily transmissible between people, sparking a lethal pandemic.

“The number of human cases is increasing and there is a small but real possibility that the virus could mutate allowing human-to-human transmission, thereby potentially leading to the world’s next major influenza pandemic,” Peter Daniels, assistant director at the government laboratory, said in the statement.

The laboratory, at Geelong, near Melbourne, is run by the Commonwealth Science and Industrial Research Organization and is one of about seven facilities globally used by the World Organization for Animal Health as a reference center for highly pathogenic avian influenza.

Researchers of both nations will visit each other’s labs for training and guidance in disease surveillance, the statement said.

cottontop – at 23:23

AnnieB- Just out of curosity, do you happen to know how much the U.S. has donated to this research, if any?

AnnieBat 23:25

Cottontop - I vaguely remember a story a few months ago mentioning specific funds for this project with several countries involved. I think this story comes up because of the sharing of lab facilities.

AnnieBat 23:33

With reference the story regarding the 2 yr old boy and his family in Dubai - when Jane first posted this at 16:53 it was shown as Saudi Arabia but these cases are in the United Arab Emirates. (Thanks for the story Jane - it got us all curious)

Note from the ProMed posting that herpes encephalitis in a family cluster is rarer than rare …

They say they have 100% ruled out any mosquito-borne illness.

Also, why are samples being sent to 2 different labs in 2 different countries ?? … The results are due 5 Nov (today)

cottontop – at 23:33

AnnieB-

It’s just something I’ve been thinking about. If it was a toss up between Asia and India, where would you think a pandemic would be emerging at this point in time?

AnnieBat 23:40

cottontop - we can see what is going on in these countries so they don’t ‘scare’ me so much - we will ‘know’ when it goes belly-up in these locations. The greatest concern is still China - by the time we get to know what is happening there it will be all too late ..

Anywhere that human infection is taking place is also the place that a pandemic could start - it takes just one go of the virus to get it ‘right’ and it is all on. So, any country reporting cases in humans must continue to be watched carefully.

So, to answer your question - 42 (the meaning of life - although my son insists that with inflation and other environmental changes, that number should now be 43.684)

cottontop – at 23:54

Thanks for your insight. Sometimes it’s just rather difficult to get a handle on all of this, from reading so much. I loose sight of which way is up and which way is down.

06 November 2006

AnnieBat 00:22

I am just getting the NEws Summary done then I will start a new thread - give me about 15–20 minutes

Cheers

witness – at 00:29

Annie at 23:33-The article was first posted Nov 1 at 20:33 and I did post Dubai.The hospital is the same in all articles—Al-Qasimi Hospital--- You did correctly post United Arab Emirates in the news summary for Nov. 1. Thankyou for posting the article and your followup.

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.NewsReportsForNovember5
Page last modified on November 06, 2006, at 12:29 AM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Predictions

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Predictions

05 November 2006

moeb – at 15:23

Who’s Counting: Which ‘Experts’ Make Better Political Predictions?

http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/WhosCounting/story?id=2624127&page=1

snip~

“This tendency to be swayed by extraneous facts and unexamined preconceptions is just one common failing. Experts, like commentators, politicians and everybody else, often fall victim to confirmation bias. This is the tendency, once you’ve made even a tentative decision, to avidly search for evidence confirming the wisdom of your decision and largely ignore evidence disconfirming it.”


COMMENT: While this news story is slanted to cover politics, it’s underlying themes ring well with pandemic predictions, or so I ask…

INFOMASS – at 15:41

In this case, public health people as well as politicians are afraid of crying “Wolf!” too often and being castigated as alarmist. I think many are alarmed themselves but do not think it prudent or perhaps possible to warn people to take this seriously. Similar problem with evacuations during hurricane warnings can be observed. That is on top of and not opposed to Moeb. Some others figure (maybe) it will be uncontrollable and better to take individual preps and not alert too many others?

Side Scroll – at 16:42
moeb – at 17:06
a’Akova – at 20:00

Interesting chart… but how do you interpret it ?

Oremus – at 22:35

It looks like walking down a tunnel.

moeb – at 22:53

The road through hell, from now til then

moeb – at 23:00

I guess it’s really just something to help me grasp the bigger picture

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Page last modified on November 05, 2006, at 11:00 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Hand Pump for Well Design

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Hand Pump for Well Design

05 November 2006

MaMaat 19:55

I was looking for different ideas to be able to keep our water coming from the well in the event of power outage and found this How To Build Your Own Hand Pump

excerpt…’This hand pump was designed, built and graciously donated by Keith Hendricks who lives in northwestern Ohio. Keith has distributed thousands of copies to folks attending survival expos because he believes we are all in for rocky times and that personal preparedness is our best defense. In an effort to make a contribution, he has made his easy-to-assemble pump available to all who wish it….’

The link to the parts list and assembly instructions is at the bottom of the page.

The design is free of copyright and the designer claims it is cheap and easy to build. I’m not the ‘handy’ with gadgets one in the family, but I’m pretty excited and I think my hubby will be too (he’s the handy one:-)

Anyway, I hope others find this useful.

LauraBat 20:04

Thanks mama! I hope your dh is handy - it looks too complicated for me to tackle! Let us know how the assembly goes and if he has any helpful hints. I am very concerned about waters as well, not only for us but all our neighbors who also have wells.

MaMaat 21:50

LauraB, he is really handy! I haven’t shown him yet as he’s still at work but I couldn’t wait to post. If he does build it we’ll be happy to let you know how well it works and what the ‘tricky’ parts might be in assembly.

beehiver – at 21:57

Important. Tie the loose end of the rope to something that cannot go down the well. :-)))))

Also to clarify - the 3-foot pipe-bucket is simply a redesigned ordinary bucket, which would not fit into a 6-inch wide well casing.

Also, some people might need to figure out how to get around the obstruction of their well house, when removing the well pipe.

beehiver – at 21:58

Oh dear. I just wrote a long post, and it seems to have disappeared! We will rewrite later.

beehiver – at 22:26

A post about a re-designed well bucket was supposed to appear above my post at 21:57, which is what it was referring to.

MaMa’s post linked to a design good for a 50 foot (75 max) well. (Thanks MaMa).

If you have a 6-inch or larger well casing, this may work for you.

However, to use the “gizmo” described below during an extended power outage, you will have to first remove the internal piping, wiring, and pump from the well casing. This probably will contain 20-foot lengths of pipe screwed together to reach the bottom of your well. The piping is heavy and must not be allowed to fall or slip back down into the well casing while being pulled. Therefore, make sure enough manpower is available to do the job, or call your well driller to have it removed. The money is worth it. When the power comes back on permanently, he can re-install it.

Obtain a 3-foot piece of 3-inch PVC pipe, 3-inch PVC cap for it, a 3/4 inch male pipe adaptor, and a 3/4 inch swing check valve.

Drill the middle of the 3-inch PVC cap to accept the 3/4-inch male pipe adaptor, and glue the male pipe adaptor on the inside of the cap. Screw on the 3/4-inch check valve with flow intended to go away from the cap, and into the 3-inch PVC pipe that you will glue onto the cap. Once it is glued, you will have a 3 foot x 3 inch bucket, with a check valve in the bottom.

About two inches from the open end of the pipe, drill holes to accept a steel wire bale. 10-gauge wire fence works great. Attach a polypropylene rope securely to the wire bail with enough length to reach the water level in your well. Important - tie the loose end of the rope to something that cannot go down the well !!

To use - lower the PVC pipe-bucket down the well, when it reaches the water, its weight will push it into the water and open the check valve. The water will flow into the pipe. Pull up and empty. Repeat as necessary :-))) This device can be used with a pulley arrangement, if you are handy.

Maintain sanitary conditions around, over, and in the well as necessary.

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Page last modified on November 05, 2006, at 10:26 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Is Pro Med Down or is it My Browser

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Is Pro Med Down or is it My Browser

23 September 2006

Joe Neubarth – at 21:32

I have not been able to get into ProMed all day long. Are they down?

NauticalManat 21:40

Joe if the site you are talking about is www.fas.org/promed, just got on there fine from Google.

Monotreme – at 21:49

I just tried promed and could not get there either.

24 September 2006

Science Teacher – at 01:09

The ProMED-mail site will be unavailable from 10 pm EDT Friday 22 Sep to 9 am EDT Sun 24 Sep. (as per google cache)

Bronco Bill – at 01:16

NauticalMan’s link works fine…

05 November 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 22:23

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Page last modified on November 05, 2006, at 10:23 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Need Attack Rate Formula

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Need Attack Rate Formula

23 September 2006

Birdie Kate – at 16:37

If someone could please help me here… I have a chart for 14,000 people with the attack rates of 25 and 50%. I just want to double check them so if someone could do them up for me I would appreciate it. I also did not include where I got them from, so if you could tell me that also I would appreciate it.

Thanks

LauraBat 17:06

Birdie - do you mean 25/50% get ill - infection rate? 30% is kind of the commonly accepted infection rate the gov’t tosses around. It is loosely based on 1918, but in fact we really don’t know what hte actual infection rate was due to lack of record keeping. The other factor is CFR - that is of those who become ill, how many actually die. Right now that is over 50%.

Birdie Kate – at 19:08

Laura,

I would like to do a chart with a 25% infection rate showing ill, severe ill, and deaths and a 50% infection rate chart.

I do have one but for the life of me have no clue where I got the info - it’s been a long year LOL!

The one I have has a 12 week period and shows the numbers for week 1, week 2, etc.

Thanks

anon_22 – at 19:39

Birdie Kate,

If all you are doing is give a chart, then

14,000 at 25% clinical attack rate (ie people infected AND sick) = 3500

50% clinical attack rate = 7000

Also, remember that ‘infection attack rate’ is percentage of population infected, ‘with or without symptoms’, whereas clinical attack rate is percentage of population showing symptoms.

The sources are very illusive. If all you want is to give a credible presentation, then just say that even experts are just making very approximate guesses, cos it can vary by a lot, depending on the virus.

If you want source for your own understanding, they are very hard to find. These are the various sources and numbers that I found:

The only one from WHO site that I found was this set of slides from Klaus Stohr, WHO who used 35% clinical attack rate in his slide, quoting Meltzer (CDC)

PAHO quotes WHO as source for 15–35%, but I haven’t found any other WHO figure apart from the one above.

I think the 25% figure came from Ferguson ie 50% infected, of whom 50% are symptomatic.

However Ferguson, wrote 2 major papers related to pandemic mitigation that carried contradicting analysis. The first in Sep 05, Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia came to 50% infection attack rate with half symptomatic ie 25% clinical attack rate. But the next one in July 06, Strategies for mitigating pandemic, which deals mainly with US and UK, he says, btw the figure of 50% used in my previous paper was wrong, it should be, erh.., 68% instead, but never mind, it doesn’t affect the result by a lot!!

(There is a more complex set of inconsistencies in the Ferguson figures which I won’t go into. If someone is interested, post and I will respond, so as not to confuse Birdie Kate more than is necessary.)


I find this most recent paper slightly more credible Reducing the impact of the next influenza pandemic using household-based public health interventions, Wu et al, using 1918 data, gives 50% infection attack rate, with 1/3 asymptomatic, ie 34% clinical attack rate.


For what it’s worth…

Birdie Kate – at 20:55

ok I am going to try and post this, it is excel. After I post it might just look like a bunch of mixed up numbers (so feel free to remove). If I am lucky it will come out in some legible form LOL

parameters population 14,000 attack rate 20% severity rate 2% case fatality 1% weeks percentage Ill Severe Deaths 1 5% 140 2.8 1.4 2 15% 420 8.4 4.2 3 45% 1260 25.2 12.6 4 28% 784 15.68 7.84 5 7% 196 4 1.96 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 total 100% 2800 56 28

parameters population 14,000 attack rate 50% severity rate 25% case fatality 10% weeks percentage Ill Severe Deaths 1 5% 350 87.5 35 2 15% 1050 262.5 105 3 45% 3150 787.5 315 4 28% 1960 490 196 5 7% 490 123 49 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 total 100% 7000 1750 700

Birdie Kate – at 21:00

oops, looks like it didn’t work I will try again - i won’t do the weeks this time

population 14,000 attack rate 20% severity rate 2% case fatality 1%

2800 ill 56 severely ill 28 dead

population 14,000 attack rate 50% severity rate 25% case fatality 10%

7,000 ill 1,750 severly ill 700 dead

i think I got these from flu surge though I am not sure

anon_22 – at 21:00

Birdie Kate – at 20:55

Well, I know exactly what you mean!

LOL

Now if you will kindly ask another mod who is more clued up than me <g> those numbers might come out right!

anon_22 – at 21:01

still doesn’t make sense

what is severity rate?

Birdie Kate – at 21:10

anon_22, that is the problem! I did it a while back and don’t have a clue where I got the info from. I might have even got it from someone here.

What I have is a spread sheet that shows 12 weeks. Each week the percentage level goes up.

Maybe I can do a search for my posts and see what the formula was. I just want to post a chart on a webpage I am creating and felt I needed to have some reference to where my numbers came from.

Thanks for your help. Avian flu drives me crazy sometimes!

Birdie Kate – at 21:17

found it - http://www.fluwikie2.com/pmwiki.php?n=Forum.NeedNumbers

anon_22 – at 21:55

Birdie Kate,

It looks like the original spreadsheet came from lugon. You might want to ask him his source for reference, or whether he means something else.

My opinion? Make it simple. At any time, do not have more than 2 things on a page that people won’t understand right away. Anything 3 or more, they become convinced either that it’s all rubbish or they won’t ever understand it.

anon_22 – at 21:55

Its the same as never having more than 2 font types in a document.

24 September 2006

TRay75at 00:45

I’m slugging my way through the Flu Surge software manual and have to have a report out by Wednesday morning using it. I’ll let you know if I come across anything that explains it. I’m pretty frustrated myself, because the results either come in dramatically small, or impossibly large with minor tweaks. No wonder no one will commit to numbers on this.

TRay75at 00:54

Actually, one item I forgot to mention. You have to reduce the population by the number of deaths the prior week, and factor in the duration of the clinically ill taken out of the available pool of new population that can be infected each week. Then you can total the number of ill or dead by adding each week to the week before (an array formula). I gave up and went to use Flu Surge, hoping it already had the factors taken into account to try and save time - plus it was written by CDC sources, so it was “credible”.

05 November 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 22:21

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Why Instant Ramen Noodles Suck As a Prep Food

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Why Instant Ramen Noodles Suck As a Prep Food

12 September 2006

Bird Guano – at 16:58

How to Use Your Noodle Instant ramen does not pack a lot of nutrition By Catherine Shepherd

http://www.pathfinder.com/asiaweek/97/0411/feat2.html

ASIA IS MAD ABOUT instant noodles, with good reason. They are cheap, easy to prepare and, well, instantly gratifying. Children love them. And the industry has grown important enough that it was able to support an “International Ramen Summit” in Tokyo last month.

But are they good for you? Nutritionists would never suggest that eating the ubiquitous noodles every day is healthy, but the occasional bowlful will certainly do no harm. Take a look at the ingredients list. The first item is always white flour. In dietary terms, this is a complex carbohydrate — a molecule that contains carbon, hydrogen and oxygen. It is required for the processing of nutrients within the body and it is also our main source of energy. Without carbohydrates, the body begins to search for other sources of nourishment, usually from stored fat and body protein. Soon afterward, muscle wastage, fatigue and depression set in. Carbohydrates also act as natural tranquilizers, which is why they make good snacks for late evening.

But high-carbohydrate foods like instant noodles that are also high in starch are currently undergoing significant scrutiny in the medical community. In February, the Journal of the American Medical Association published an article on the link between a high-starch diet and diabetes. White bread, mashed potatoes and instant noodles all have high “glycemic indexes,” which is a measure of how much the food drives up blood sugar. The study’s authors, however, advise that people should not rush to cut starches from their diet; rather, starchy foods should be augmented by whole-grain products (like brown rice) and leafy greens.

The second largest nutrient group in instant noodles is fat. Surprised? Most of us eat pasta with the understanding that it is a high-carbohydrate, low-fat food. Not so with the instant variety. Says Prof. Harold Corke, a wheat expert at the University of Hong Kong: “Most instant noodles are dried by deep frying, and only 3%−4% are air dried. Air-drying is not indicated on the package and they are not marketed on that basis. Instant noodles are about 18% fat”.

That’s not too bad: remember that fat is a dietary requirement. Nutritionists recommend that about 20% to 30% of daily calories come from fat. But not all fats are equal. Most manufacturers use palm oil, a pleasant-tasting fat readily available in the region. It is also highly saturated, so if you are at risk of coronary artery disease, avoiding instant noodles is advisable. But health concerns aside, most noodle lovers would choose a fried variety simply because oil makes foods taste better.

There is, however, more to noodles than simply flour and fat. Potassium carbonate is a salt. It turns noodles a slightly yellowish color (typical of the Cantonese mein) and “gives them a firm bite,” says Prof. Corke. Without this additive, the noodles would be softer, easily turning mushy — much like their pale relative Chinese ho fan and sometimes Japanese udon. There is no nutritional value in potassium carbonate, but it is not unhealthy. The same goes for the mysterious xanthan gum that often appears toward the end of the ingredient list. It is a bacteria-derived food stabilizer that has long been approved for human consumption.

The condiment pouches contain most of the product’s salt content. Again, if you are required to maintain a low-salt diet for blood-pressure reasons, instant noodles are not appropriate. The flavor pouch also contains coloring to make the broth look more appetizing and usually a hefty portion of the flavor-enhancer monosodium glutamate (MSG). Although some people report a sensitivity to MSG — complaining of fever, fatigue and headache — it too is a fully approved food additive. There are instant noodles available without MSG, but they tend to be about 25% more expensive and taste bland.

Dr. Edmond Li, a Hong Kong nutritionist, has this advice: “Do not rely on instant noodles for a source of vegetables. They are added only to make the dish more satisfying and are not intended to provide the consumer with nutrition.” But he understands the noodles’ appeal. Even his children are permitted an occasional package — especially if they are being fussy. “I don’t think it’s a problem to stimulate their appetite with them.”

Parents can alter the nutritional value to some extent. First, buy packets that do not come pre-mixed in their own bowl. This way, you can control how much of the flavoring pouch goes into the broth. Also, adding egg or vegetables to the soup is an excellent way to increase the protein and vitamin content, without altering the taste and texture that appeals to children.

In the end, remember that the best way to maintain a nutritious diet is to eat a variety of foods. Instant noodles will not hurt anyone (without dietary restrictions) but you wouldn’t want to be stuck on a desert island with them alone.

Bird Guano – at 16:58

And yes, I do have an instant noodle jihad when it comes to prep foods.

:-)

Edna Mode – at 17:01

Bird Guano, LOL!

raina – at 17:03

As regards the palm oil, I think recent research is finding that saturated plant fats are not all that bad for you, as compared to saturated animal fats. Not that that would make instant noodles a health food, by any means. They are certainly lacking in nutrients.

I do have a few boxes of instant noodles in my preps, although mostly for the handy flavor packets which are way too much for the noodles themselves.

Bird Guano – at 17:10

They are cheap for a reason.

LOL

LauraBat 17:11

Sure I know they’re not the greatest, but I hope that SIP will be, at worst, months and not years. While I’ve tried to stock-pile lots of nutritious foods, a balanced diet may have to take a back seat some of the time to just “getting by.” Plus, they are something easy to handy out to those who come beggin’ for something.

Bird Guano – at 17:14

No argument there for filling your belly and “getting by”.

HOWEVER.

There are MANY BETTER nutrition alternatives to instant ramen noodles for the money.

blackbird – at 17:17

Bird, I share your reservations about ramen. I do have some organic KOYO brand ramen. The ingredients are:

organic noodles: organic wheat flour, sea salt

soup packet: shoyu powder (soybeans, wheat, sea salt)

miso powder: soybeans, rice, sea salt

kombu powder, shiitake mushroom powder, tofu (soybeans, nigari), onion powder, sea salt, green onion, garlic powder, ginger powder, black pepper.

Price is much more than regular ramen, around $0.80 per packet vs. what, $0.10? But there’s no MSG or other additives. Calories = 200, calories from fat = 12 (1g saturated fat) and sodium is higher than I’d like at 748 mg. :(

I like it with a little sour cream or organic non-egg mayo — my downfall — stirred in, plus some tofu or leftovers added to give it more body.

Not a main staple around here, but easy to make, doesn’t consume a lot of fuel, and one more thing to round out things on the variety front.

I also found some pretty good instant miso soup on the internet. Don’t know if anyone else is interested in such things.

Desert Dan – at 17:20

Cheap and easy

You can add things to them to make them more interesting.

They also might be good in care packages for hungry people that didn’t prep.

I plan on having a few zip lock bags with instant oatmeal, mac n chees and top ramen for the un-prepped people just in case.

silversage – at 17:21

blackbird – at 17:17 I’ve been making miso soup for my kids because I got a flu book from the library and it said miso is good for regular flu. So I was wondering if there is such a thing as dried/powdered miso for long term storage? If not, instant miso soup would be a good idea. We have items like that in the grocery store but I haven’t found them to be very good. Where did you find your miso soup?

DennisCat 17:26

I don’t consider ramen noodles “balanced meal” but they can be part of one just as flour, salt, sugar, pasta or even rice. The thing is what you can cook with them. As with any prep, you should not base all your preps on one food kind, one food source, one water source, one power source and so on.

Bird Guano – at 17:32

Soy Sauce Powder. http://www.spicesetc.com/product/56/3 I stock the low sodium version

Miso powder is different from miso soup powder. The soup powder usually has a dashi base. Dry miso powder: http://www.coldmountainmiso.com/coldmount.html

Organics: http://www.nikkenfoods.com/fermented.htm

blackbird – at 17:38

silversage

I did a lot of googling for ‘instant miso’, ‘powdred miso’, etc. Most of the results were from Japanese importers, some of them didn’t have a lot of information available on the sites in english. I got the red miso from this link, it tastes pretty decent:

http://www.naturalimport.com/instant_miso1?b=1

Also found a 12.1 oz bag of miso that doesn’t require refrigeration (at least not until it’s opened) in the natural foods section of my local grocery store. It’s certified organic Hacho Miso, the company is Eden (www.edenfoods.com). They may have more info on their web site. I only got the one to try, but haven’t tried it yet. So many preps, so little time …

Miso is a staple in our house for pre-emptive strikes against developing a cold so even though we have some extra in the refrigerator, I wanted to store some for the longer term and in case of outages.

blackbird – at 17:41

Bird Guano – at 17:32.

Thanks for posting the links. I went to the cold mountain site and didn’t see a clickable link to order the miso powder. That’s actually what I want vs. the soup. Have you ordered from them? How’d you do it?

Medical Maven – at 18:02

If you tend to eat healthy on a regular basis like I do, it is quite a carbohydrate rush when I dive into one of those cheap Nissan brand noodle cups. I am going to use them like a drug when I really get down. Like any “drug”, if you use it sparingly, you get a better kick out of it. : )

EnoughAlreadyat 18:10

I have a masters degree in nutrition and dietitics. We probably don’t use a dozen packages of ramen noodles a year. We only use those because I get them for our hurricane preps, and we use them after hurricane season if not needed during hurricane season.

However, I have 3 cases of shrink wrapped ramen noodles in my pandemic prep’s. They are not a nutritional giant. But they are cheap and plentiful. And I have a lot of people to worry about for an unknown amount of time. The equation is going to change if this pandemic hits even on the low end of prediction. If you watched that BF movie on TV you have a similitude of what can be expected… in wave one. There are 10 grams of protein and 52 grams of carbs in a package of ramen noodles. I can beef up the nutrient value by tossing in some powdered milk, dehydrated crumbled spinach, etc. Bottom line: it’s cheap, it’s food, and there is a lot of it.

There are people who this is going to be as good as it gets when it comes to prepping. Obviously, I am one of them. And yes, I have other stuff to eat besides ramen noodles. But there are people that getting this would be equivilent to my buying a generator.

So, how do we find bulk foods for dirt cheap (like ramen noodles) and create a more nutritious food supply? That’s how we can help people prepare who otherwise are SOOL!

DennisCat 18:18

if you look on the net, you can find all kinds of Ramen noodle recipies. Some are reasonable. For example using them in fajitas, salads, soups, stew and so on.

For example I use them with “natural materials” I find like mushrooms, dandelion roots, cat tail roots, with a little lemon and galic powder. The point is: the sum is greater than any individual part. (excuss the “pun” from Euclid)

EnoughAlreadyat 18:41

www.budget101.com

EnoughAlreadyat 18:47

ooops… type in ramen noodles in the site search

DennisC

What do you do with cat tail roots? And do you know anything about their nutritional and “other” value? I have access to acears of cat tails! Thanks.

DennisCat 19:18

I am one of these old school boy scouts (where they sent you off for 3 or 4 days with a cup and a knife….

anyway, look up edible plants. like here-

http://tinyurl.com/hnsu5 or cat tails and edible like here http://tinyurl.com/zqlv7 you can make flour out of the pollen and the it is a starchy root.

here is a recipe for cat tail waffles: http://tinyurl.com/e72gx

“Few people seem to be aware of it, but the common cattail is actually a highly nutritious and astonishingly versatile source of food. Its stems can be prepared as a vegetable . . . the pollen can be used in bread recipes . . . the plant’s distinctive flower spikes can-be cooked like corn . . . the bulbous shoots at the base of the stem are delicious when boiled . . . even the cattail’s roots can be processed into a rich (and highly palatable) flour. (Euell Gibbons was probably right when he wrote: “For the number of different kinds of food it produces there is no plant, wild or domesticated, which tops the common cattail.”) from:

http://tinyurl.com/zwryp

For me the “edible wild plants” is part of my “backup preps”. I have been planting some here and there and not killing dandelions. If some one shows up at the door with a gun asking for food, I will just start talking about wild plants instead of showing them my rice supplies.

I am not sure of their nutritional values. (that is why I prep vitamins)

preppiechick – at 19:42

Another reason to prep ramen noodles, regardless of them not being the most nutrious, is for the kids. Mine are very picky and will get food fatigue, very quickly. If I can encourage them, with something that they like and will go down easily (esp. if they are sick with the flu) then I don’t care how nutrious they are. I have stocked almost a years worth of vitamins (one of the only things that I have a years supply of!) to supplement any poor diet choices (which we already have on a daily basis!). Also, because ramen noodles are pre-cooked, they will require very little fuel/effort to cook - even my kids can cook these! I do plan on adding things to them and using them in congunction with other prep items. I appreciate Bird Guano bringing to light the nutrient deficiency of this product, but as is the case with most things, there are always two sides to the story ;)

Poppy – at 20:01

They suck as a prep food for the same reason they suck as a snack food…They just taste yucky. I don’t know how my kids can stand them, they are junk.

Urdar-Norge – at 20:49

they consume space.. alot of it, pasta, rice and makaronies are better as spaceinvaders. But a diversity is important. To the noodles, add egg, meat, fish and vegetables then you do get a good meal. ..also check out italian polenta flour. Cant get cheaper and more space saving than that, Like a corn based instant potatomash.. Cooking from scratsch is always the best, cheapest and only way to cook :)

blackbird – at 21:05

eading the cattails info …

Euell Gibbons lives!

Bird Guano – at 22:11

Thank you all for your input.

The title was on purpose, to trigger some discussion. I know it’s a “religious” issue with a lot of people.

My pet peeve is people who buy them and think they are a stand-alone prep food to be used for weeks on end.

I haven’t seen that in THIS thread, but I have seen it on the Wiki.

They are not.

Used as an extender they are fine.

HOWEVER

I still maintain that there are other noodles/pasta out there with a MUCH higher nutritional value for a similar price.

Examples are:

Don’t sacrifice convenience for nutrition for the same $$$ is my entire point of this thread.

YMMV

13 September 2006

NauticalManat 18:01

Instead of not very good for you ramen noodles, I very much enjoy Thai Kitchen products, have only tried their Instant Rice Noodle soups. Package states they are not fried, are gluten and egg free. A little high in sodium, but you could easily leave out half the seasoning package and they are still tasty. Do not know what the shelf life is, not on my packages, but have emailed the company to ask. Their website lists stores where they are available in each state. Here in Mass. they are found in Whole Foods, Wild Oats and others. They are a little more expensive than ramen noodles, but would think they would be much better for you.

23 September 2006

CAMikeat 17:02

Bump so this does not fall off the forum.

I think Ramen Noodles are an important issue for discussion. Before TSHTF we will all be looking for low-cost food for either ourselves or for others. I agree with NM at 18:01. From a nutrition point of view Ramen Noodles are not the best but they are cheap. My plan is to use them sparingly, without the taste packets, using my own additions as needed.

Disclaimer: I have not tried this other then to eat the noodles only with a butter substitute which works fine if there is power for the fridge. Still working on substitutes. For now I am keeping the “flavor” packets just in case.

Mike

seacoast – at 17:34

I like the Thai Kitchen Spring Onion instant soup too, but it is a lot more expensive that Ramen Noodles. Each one is $1.99 which is pricey for a bowl of noodles, but good.

Northstar – at 18:17

This thread’s made me so hungry I had to go out and buy a couple cases of Ramen! At a dime a pack at Aldi’s, they’re hard to beat. Here are some of the other things that spoke in favor of the poor, beleaguered Ramen:

1. They are calorie dense, making them a food that can span the gap of lean times. As far as nutrition, I don’t think they are any more or less nutritious than most pastas, anyway.

2. They are light and easily portable, making them a perfect food for a travel bag.

3.They are quick and easy to cook, even for children who may not be able to fend for themselves very well.

4. They taste good. Oh, come on, admit it.

5. They can be easily enhanced by a small amount of meat and/or vegetable.

6. Did I mention they are a dime apiece? Good God, if there is a starving time you can save your neighbor’s kids for a couple bucks. It’s hard to knock that.

Dennis in Colorado – at 18:46

The Maruchan “instant lunch” has the added benefit of no dishes needed. A bit more expensive (24¢ per cup at Sam’s Club), but still 330 Kcal in a package good for at least a year.

Urdar-Norge – at 19:12

put 1 kg of pasta or rice on the weight, then 1 kg of noodles.. withc pile is the biggest..? I just finnished moving to my new house today, my food preps is only 6 paper boxes (23×30–20 cm big), I will of course panic shop storable vegtables if TSHTF and some fresh meat. But its impressive. 3 months of food.. and it constains only 5 packets of noodles ;-D

Poppy – at 20:23

Okay I will conceed there is one use I have found for them. I do use the beef flavored ones then making my stuffing for stuffed bell peppers. I add it to rice along with other seasonings and use it as a mix for my stuffing. Other than that they are just good for my kids to make a mess of the kitchen with.

NauticalManat 21:23

Thai kitchen states their noodle soups are good for 2 years past the date on them.

Kathy in FL – at 22:49

OK folks, instead of eating the Ramen Noodles as is try using them the same way you would use dried pasta and white rice. I wouldn’t recommend eating pasta or white rice all the time either … but no one says eating it on occasion is going to do you in.

I’ve put several recipes for using ramen noodles in the recipe threads. They really aren’t that bad and they will piece out your other dried ingredients. They work really well in skillet casseroles and they plain noodles can help bulk up an otherwise thinnish soup.

I’m more concerned with the sodium in the flavor packets than I am with the noodles themselves.

lady biker – at 23:11

when I cook the ramen noodles I don’t use all the flavor packet, just enough to give a little flavor. and my neighbor don’t know it but if they come to me for food they will be getting a lot of ramen noodles and canned vegetables and viennia sausages . lolol…..so far and if they are nice I will throw in some tootsie pops. LOLOL…..they won’t starve but they might have to shoot a deer or rabbit to go with the noodles. yup

lady biker – at 23:12

oh yea and some ketchup…….everything is better with ketchup……..:)

CAMikeat 23:26

lady biker – at 23:11. I have a similiar plan. Food care packages will contain ramen noodles, some kind of protein (canned), some kind of veggie (canned), some multivitamins, possibly bottled water and other essentials, if they can be spared, and instructions on making a hobo stove.

The noodles are so cheap and easily cooked that I think they are a great addition for part-time preppers or to be included in care packages.

Mike

CAMikeat 23:28

lady biker – at 23:12 - oh yea and some ketchup…….everything is better with ketchup……..:)

I agree except for coffee and ice cream. Those are best left unadulterated. I love ketchup.

Mike

24 September 2006

RANSOM – at 00:33
 I use a them as a “part” of my preps because they are cheep and convenient. Convenient in that they already have the little spice packet.

 I also like the idea of handing them out to the neighbors who have done no prep work at all.

 The spice packets could also be used alone to make broth or added to a soup. 

05 November 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 22:19

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Page last modified on November 05, 2006, at 10:19 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / The Geese Are on the Move

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: The Geese Are on the Move

29 October 2006

Prepping Gal – at 18:42

I promised I let you know when I saw large flocks of birds heading south. Today I’ve seen hundreds heading south from Alberta. I believe they are a month late but winter has just set in today so they stayed as long as they could.

OKbirdwatcherat 21:39

Thanks Prepping Gal, we’ll be on the lookout for ‘em here in Oklahoma. Always love to see the first flocks passing through our area. For me, it’s the true indicator that the seasons have changed.

senegal1 – at 21:42

Here in Northern VA today I saw a large flock of geese round up and head out. Although I believe some stay in the area most go south.

AnnieBat 21:43

I remember there is a online site that interactively shows the bird migrations but I cannot find it - even googled my wee heart out! If someone can remember such a site, it would be good to have it to follow progress etc.

Of course, the best trackers are those on the ground watching them go over - as is happening here ;-)

On the fence and leaning – at 21:58

Also here in Northern VA. About a month ago, and for 2–3 weeks straight, I saw flocks lifting up out of the area near the soccer fields before the games Saturday mornings and landing in the evening near the begining of practice. The kids got a kick out of seeing them all.

senegal1 – at 22:02

This is one of the things I missed most about being outside of the U.S. — the flocks of geese. Its so special. On the fence and leaning — check my profile for my email and send me a message. I am going to try to get together a conference call for folks in the area.

On the fence and leaning – at 22:16

I’m with you senegal. Just did 5 years in Italy. It’s good to be back. Would hate to be over there anywhere when/if this kicks off.

On the fence and leaning – at 22:22

I mentioned earlier that I thought it would be a neat idea to have a chat room on the wiki for some real time conversation. One of the mods, can’t remember who, mentioned that a lot of times chat rooms break down into “LOL” and ROTFL etc. I can see the point but I still think it would be interesting. I used to have AOL YEARS ago and I remember chatting on their boards in the rooms. Maybe we should get a group together on a chat room some time as well.

senegal1 – at 22:24

Oh! Italy! — and I get the hardship posts. At least I can seriously contribute to the “Desperate Food thread”. I agree on being out of the US although maybe New Zealand might be the place to be.

30 October 2006

gharris – at 20:19

Lots of Canada Geese gathering here - East Central Ontario Canada - but they seem a bit confused abt where they want to go - some flying north (maybe just going for dinner at nearby lake?) The Vs are not well formed for the most part so far - very messy looking no military precision - perhaps they are youngsters just learning how??! I have told them to ‘shape up and fly right’!!!

Prepping Gal – at 23:03

Thanks for the chuckle gharris. Yesterday hundreds were flying in V formations,This morning (really cold −17 deg Cel) I noticed a couple hundred flying in a straight line. We thought it might be the cold (for drafting purposes) but you may be right, it could be the youngsters haven’t got things figured out. In our case they are all flying south now; a couple weeks ago they were going north as well but I imagine it was for the last big feeds on fields with grain still on the ground.

31 October 2006

Feather Pillow – at 07:54

I woke up about 3 am this morning to the sound of hundreds of geese flying over. I’ve noticed in the past several years that they usually preceed a cold front and ride that through. I expect to see and hear them all day today and tonight again. Cold front expected today. Actually I think they are about 2 weeks early this year for here in Northwest Arkansas. A lovely, haunting sound and sight. Sometimes they can barely be seen way yp high in the clouds, but definately heard!

TreasureIslandGalat 08:39

I guess its time to start watching for them arriving on the golf courses!

Prepping Gal – at 22:44

Today we got our Bohemian Waxwings - literally hundreds arrive at our acreage because we have many different berries; the previous owner didn’t plant anything that didn’t attract birds. Any how one day every year they come and stay for a day or two. We love to see them come but keep our cat indoors much to her dismay. They are right on schedule and as usual the place is noisy as can be. I’m always amazed that they find our place because there aren’t any other acreages around here like ours. We have a few hundred trees and bushes (all planted by the previous owner who had a reputation for being able to make any tree or bush grow here).

01 November 2006

Bluebonnet – at 09:30

Heard geese flying over Friendswood, TX early this morning headed south. Never saw them as it was still dark. Didn’t sound like a large flock - maybe the first ones?

OKbirdwatcherat 20:24

Prepping Gal -

Do your Bohemian Waxwings ever get “drunk”?

Saw and heard a large flock of geese this evening just at sunset. That chill of fall in the air and the birds doing what they always do. Life’s rhythm. What a thrill!

Prepping Gal – at 23:52

WE usually get one or two flying into a window but not this year.I didn’t know they could get drunk. Wow now that would be a noisy bunch then. I didn’t see them early this morning but my DH said they were around in the late morning. I should hike around the property and see if all the berries are gone;if so, they are as well. This year we also noticed that the robins stayed longer and to our surprise they ate a lot of berries before leaving, never saw this before.

02 November 2006

OKbirdwatcherat 14:38

Prepping Gal -

Waxwings can sometimes become intoxicated on overripe berries and can be picked up in the hand. We actually witnessed this very thing about 10 years ago. There were just a few Cedar waxwings in the yard feeding on berries and one ended up just sitting on the ground and behaving in a “goofy” way. They soon recover from it but can be vulnerable to predators while in their “drunken” state.

What a treat to see a large flock of Bohemians. The waxwings are, IMO, the most drop-dead gorgeous birds ever.

Average Concerned Mom – at 15:01

I just was sent this poem — how timely — do you know it? I don’t mean to get all literary or anything, but it just really captured my mood these days — how it is bright and sunshiny, and yet I have a feeling of “dark days ahead” — a real disconnect from how everyone in my (real) life feels.

By Rachel Field

Average Concerned Mom – at 15:02

breat = breast

OKbirdwatcherat 15:12

ACM - How beautiful! Thank you for sharing; it captures my mood as well. I keep returning to the Wiki, if only to read other’s posts, because there is just no one else in my world (other than my DH) who even gives pandemic flu a thought. And there are days I wonder who’s really off track, them…or me.

05 November 2006

cactus – at 21:46
  I got off work the other AM (work nights), was about 7 am. Heard a commotion, looked up and a large V of geese went overhead. They must have spent the night at the small manmade lake in town. Headed Southeast. Perhaps down the way to a larger lakr. Manmade of course. Arizona has few natural lakes.
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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Do We Use Aspirin for Flu or Not

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Do We Use Aspirin for Flu or Not

01 June 2006

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 07:44

OK, I’m a little confused by what I’ve read on another forum group about whether to give aspirin to either an adult or a child with the flu — regular or worse (the flu that is).

I have cats not kids, so it’s something I never had to worry about, but it seems that aspirin under certain circumstances in kids can cause Reyes Syndrome. So I don’t really need to know about that, although someone else might.

What I need to know is, after the 5 bottles of aspirin I’ve bought that I’m already using (the won’t go to waste) can I use them on adults with any kind of flu??

Tom DVM – at 10:24

Hi I’m workin’ on it. The answer to your question is DEFINTELY NO!! Aspirin should not be used in the same sentence with flu because the use in young people and children can cause Reye’s syndrome, I believe a condition that causes death most of the time.

The best way I have found to avoid the problem is to remove any chance of it happening by not trying to mix treatments depending on age.

There are effective alternatives including advil and acetominophen, although there can be side-effects here as well. These side effects would in large part be avoided by oral electrolyte solutions or adequate hydration when ill.

As far as pets go, acetominophen should not be used. I would suggest asking your veterinarian at your pets next check-up to determine the best course of action in respect to H5N1.

By the way, great question!!

DennisCat 10:33

acetominophen is lethal to cats - it converts a large part of their hemoglobin in a way which cannot carry oxygen to body tissues.

anon_22 – at 10:34

I’m with Tom on this.

GreenMomat 10:47

How do you guys feel about ibuprophen?

I don’t use asprin because kids/Reyes Syndrome concerns. My son has a bone disease that causes him episodes of pain and his doctor (Oncologist at Vanderbilt) just swears by ibuprophen says its safer than actementiphen-though my son does get an occasional blood test just to check on things. We’ve given him, under this doctors supervision far more ibuprophen than I ever would have on my own and he’s responding very well. As a result, we take it more than we have in past for headaches, minor aches pains etc, and have not had anyproblems. I wonder how it would be in relation for flu? or animals-in a pinch-I’m thinking mostly of a small German shephard with a tendancy towards displasia?

Sahara – at 10:53

Dr. Woodson in his guide also warns against giving ibuprofin to children, because it is an aspirin-like drug. This is news to me because I have always given my kids children’s ibuprofin, and there are great quantities of children’s ibuprofin products (in many yummy flavors) at the store. So anybody know the deal with ibuprofin and children?

Hot and bothered – at 10:55

Tom DVM – at 10:24 “The answer to your question is DEFINTELY NO!!”

You lost me. IWOI’s question is “What I need to know is … can I use them on adults with any kind of flu??” and IWOI also states “I have cats not kids”.

Is there some reason to not use aspirin for an adult with the flu?

Tom DVM – at 11:02

Hot and bothered. Annon 22 would be better to answer this …but I don’t think that Reyes syndrome affects adults.

My point was the best way to avoid slip ups and inadvertently giving children aspirin by mistake, is not to consider it in the treatment of flu at all…especially since there are,in my opinion, better alternatives.

JV – at 11:09

Here is a good article from The National Reye’s Syndrome Foundation.

They indicate that children under 19 should not use aspirin or salicylate compounds. A list of other medicines with these ingredients is listed.

“Some medication labels may use the words acetylsalicylate, acetylsalicylic acid, salicylic, salicylamide, phenyl salicylates, etc., instead of the word aspirin. There is not data as to other forms of salicylate other than aspirin associated with the development of Reye’s Syndrome, but until further research has answered this question, we recommend products listing these substances not be used at all in children and adolescents, because a virus may already be present before symptoms appear. Product ingredients may be reformulated periodically, so always check the label. When in doubt ask your doctor or pharmacist.”

http://www.reyessyndrome.org/aspirin.htm

lauraB – at 11:09

While I like most of Dr. Woodson’s advice, I have to disagree with him on ibuprofin. Maybe it’s in some medical journal somewhere to avoid it, but my ped has certainly never advised against it (and he has definitely warned us about aspirin - NEVER give it to kids!). I give my kids children’s Motrin all the time. It works well against fevers and pain. It is an anti-inflamatory so it is also good for pulled/strained muscles as that causes the muscles to inflame. If a child is battling a particularly bad fever that is tough to keep down, you can alternate giving ibuprofin with acetominephen every 2 hours.

Also, be careful with some stomach meds like Peptobismol and Imodium. The adult versions and older versions have aspirin and therefore should NEVER be given to kids. They both now have children’s versions so buy carefully.

lauraB – at 11:11

Does anyone know what is most effective against fevers in adults? Aspirin vs the other two? I only take aspirin for really bad headaches - for whatever reason it seems to tackle the pain best. But I always take Advil for fevers. Any pharmacists out there know the answer?

RPh – at 11:16

Pharmacologically, there is no reason you aren’t able to give aspirin to ADULTS with the flu (with the exception that it is a gastric irritant, and will make nausea worse, as will ibuprofen). Aspirin is a no-no for all kids/adolescents with fever (as mentioned Reyes’ Syndrome).

From a safety standpoint, Tylenol (acetaminophen) is much safer than aspirin (presuming no liver dysfunction) for users of all ages.

Keep in mind that only very high fever should be treated at all >102F - mild fevers are best left alone and not masked. In fact, some research suggests that a fever helps the body erradicate infection.

JV – at 11:19

I have no worry about giving ibuprofen to children. I always gave it to my child.

Here is a reference to ibuprofen and aspirin from Children’s Hospital in Seattle. This is also a good site on which to find other info re children!

“Give acetaminophen (e.g. Tylenol) or ibuprofen (e.g. Advil) for fevers above 102°F (39°C), if your child is uncomfortable. The goal of fever therapy is to bring the temperature down to a comfortable level. Remember, the fever medicine usually lowers the fever by 2 to 3°F.

Avoid aspirin. (Reason: risk of Reye’s syndrome, a rare but severe brain disease)”

http://www.seattlechildrens.org/child_health_safety/health_advice/fever.asp

Olymom – at 11:20

Hi. Our vet has me give BUFFERED aspirin to an older, stiff dog. You have to search the shelves for this but apparently the buffering is important. I keep the aspirin with the dog stuff so teens don’t get it.

Somewhere on fluwiki I read about treating high fever with alternating ibuprofen and Tylenol — because then a med can be given every two hours — but the writer also cautioned that a written log should be kept of what was given when because an overdose of either can be very bad.

JV – at 11:21

On my link above, you have to click “Treat at Home” to get the info re ibuprofen and aspirin.

Green Mom – at 13:02

My peditrician and the oncologist have both advised alternating acetaminiphen and ibuprofen for fevers over 102. I did find out that when I had a bout of food poisoning and had severe headache I couldn’t keep the ibuprophen tablets down, but I could keep down the liquid childrens Motrin we had. That might come in handy treating flu patients with upset stomachs.

Thanks for tip on buffered asprin.

RPh – at 13:14

“My peditrician and the oncologist have both advised alternating acetaminiphen and ibuprofen for fevers over 102″

Only when either entity alone (and non-pharmacological treatments, such a cold compresses and tepid baths) is ineffective.

1. Try Tylenol 2. Try Ibuprofen 3. Try both

If you aren’t able to control the fever with these, you need medical attention

Gary – at 13:16

My question about aspirin and ibuprofin is that both exacerbate bleeding. In a disease such as H5N1 flu which can cause serios bleeding problems, should these drugs be used?

Albert – at 13:43

I was not familiar with Reye’s Syndrome until reading about it in this thread. I have raised two children into adulthood and now again two small kids in my household… Whenever high fever afflicted anyone, I used a European suppository called Perdolan (Janssen-Cilag), a mixture of 200mg aspirin, 200 mg paracetamol, and 46 mg coffein. This is the dosage for adults but they have paediatric dosages as well. It works very efficiently ! I got through a ten-day very high fever episode in Africa thanks to Perdolan every four hours. I knew doctors frowned on using these kinds of combination medicines, but for me, it is the efficiency that counts. I will now stop using this stuff forever. Thanks for the info.

Green Mom – at 16:43

RPh- thanks for the clarification, I meant when either was ineffective alone, you could alternate the two. I’ve only had to do that just a few times with my children-or myself for that matter.

I think asprin will exacerbate bleeding quicker than ibuprophen. My son had to have blood count drawn to make sure the large amounts of ibuprophen he was getting was not causing any internal bleeding-ulcers and intestinal bleeding were the concern, but it was every six months and done more as a routine check-but he is very young-teens, with no history of any bleeding problems. I’m thinking for a relitivly quick illness like flu-as opposed to a chronic one, Ibuprophen would be ok. I would be hesitant to give asprin for flu if there were bleeding problems involved. Maybe someone who knows more about this can offer thier opinions? Thanks

Tom DVM – at 16:50

Gary. I am a veterinarian but since no one else has answered you question I will give you my impression. Aspirin and Ibuprofen will not cause excessive bleeding when used for short term treatments.

I believe that in a sense, their treatment effect is additive which means you have to be on it for a while before significant bleeding effects occur. Moderate treatments for less than five days should not cause significant differences in clotting time.

Maybe annon 22 or JV or one of the other human medical people can comment and agree of disagree. It has been a while since I was in pharmacology class so they should have the final word.

Thanks for bringing up an important issue.

BroncoBillat 17:06

All---go back and re-read IWOI’s opening post. No kids. He/she is asking can I use them on adults with any kind of flu?

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 07:44 --- Last year, I had the seasonal flu. Twice. After getting my shots. So, after suffering the first bout, the second time around my wife took me to the emergency clinic at 9pm wit a fever of 103 degrees. The doctor diagnosed me with flu, and sent me home with this advice: “Beginning when you get home, take two Tylenol. 4 hours later, take 2 Excedrin tablets. Again, in four hours, take two Tylenol. Repeat until the fever breaks.”

BTW—I’m an adult. Have been for way too many years… ;-)

At about 6am the next morning, I woke up in a soaking wet bed, feeling much better, and my fever had gone down to about 99 degrees.

Now, this isn’t for kids, and I’m not associated with any makers of any pharmaceuticals in any way. Just my two cents…

Tom DVM – at 17:11

Hi BroncoBill. The thing is that because parents are often panicked when they are treating their children, sometimes they act without thinking. Giving aspirin by mistake to a child creates a significant risk…

…so one way to handle it is to apply the KISS principle…take aspirin out of the loop for treating influenza, use on of the many effective alternatives, and then there is no chance of it being given inadvertently to a child or a grandchild by mistake.

JV – at 17:56

Aspirin and NSAIDs (like ibupropen) will increase bleeding time. They both reduce the clotting action of platelets. Aspirin is much more of a concern for bleeding, but still, NSAIDs can increase bleeding time. Therefore, it is not a good idea to give them to someone when planning a surgery in the near future, or someone who may possibly bleed from a disease. My son had a concussion a while ago, and the pediatrician said not to even give him ibuprofen because of a concern he might bleed inside his brain.

For the flu in general, I would use ibuprofen if I wanted to (for kids too). Considering the possibility of bleeding with this bird flu, personally, I will not be giving either aspirin or ibuprophen to my family. I have reconsidered this situation. I don’t think it is worth the worry. I think it would be better to be safe than sorry. Others may decide differently. Considering we may have no medical help at all, it is probably best to err on the side of total caution. Tylenol can work pretty well to reduce a fever if you have to.

Here are a couple of links to articles on aspirin and NSAIDs:

Aspirin Pharmacodynamics:

- irreversibly acetylates and inactivates cyclo-oxygenase: enzyme responsible for conversion of membrane arachidonic acid to prostaglandin endoperoxides and thromboxane A2

- platelets lack nuclear machinery to replenish enzyme so platelets are affected for their lifespan

- platelet release inhibited and platelet aggregation impaired

- clinically translates into a prolonged bleeding time and potential for bleeding during surgical procedures for up to 8 days after last dose of aspirin.

http://tinyurl.com/ns4cb

From Mayo Clinic:

Medicines like ibuprofen (NSAIDs) will prolong bleeding time, and they are a consideration when treating someone with a disease or problem where increased bleeding is not desireable.

http://tinyurl.com/lu355

BroncoBillat 17:57

Okay. The only reason I posted was that from the get-go, this thread took off in the wrong direction for more than 10 posts. Was just trying to get it back to answer IWOI’s original question…

Tom DVM – at 18:08

Thanks JV and BB.

lauraB – at 19:14

Does anyone know what impact ibuprofen/aspirin could ahve with someone lacking a slpeen? Dh had his out years ago so I am very paranoid about illnesses with him anyway. Luckily his doc last year made him get a pneumonia vax because not having a spleen puts you more at risk. From what I am reading dh should only take tylenol if H2H and he gets it?

BroncoBillat 19:21

lauraB – at 19:14 --- Definitely talk to his doctor on that one…

JV – at 20:16

lauraB -

I have looked all over the Internet re giving aspirin or ibuprofen to patients without spleens. I found nothing.

I did find all kind of guidelines re prevention and treatment of infection (vaccines, antibiotics, etc.).

Considering I think (IMHO)it would be wise for all people to stay away from aspirin (and probably ibuprofen) if they think they might have H5N1 flu (considering those medicines may cause increased bleeding), I would just think it would be wise for your husband too. I do not personally know a lot about splenectomy patients. You or your husband should talk to his doctor to make sure you have a list of all medicines he should not take. Sorry I could not help more.

04 June 2006

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 10:05

BroncoBill, you’re right — the thread took on a ‘slant’ of it’s own! :-)

I’m certainly glad that it did though, because we not only got help for people WITH kids, but for me too!

Thanks soooooo much for posting what you were told in the ER! That helps tremendously & FOR MY HOME WITHOUT HUMAN KIDS I’m going to write that down on one of my ‘flash cards’ I’m making to holepunch and put together with a ring so you can flip through easily & also hang above the sick bed. Sorta my crip notes for illness.

Another thing I’m going to do ( and certainly Tom and others are right about this) the best thing to do for homes WITH HUMAN CHILDREN is to make aspirin off limits. So what I’m going to do here is simply take a magic marker & write in BIG letters on all the aspirin bottles in my home, ‘DO NOT GIVE TO CHILDREN’ so that if, for some currently unknown reason pops up that I should have sick children in my home, I’ll not panic & give them the first thing that would seem the most effective in my mind.

Thanks everyone for the discussion — and for BroncoBill for figuring out that I needed a different slant on the info being provided!!!

RPh – at 10:37

Tylenol/Excedrin - In Canada, at least, both are actually the same medicinal ingredient, namely acetaminophen (Excedrin adds a touch of caffeine to help increase the rate of absorption), so it doesn’t make much sense to alternate those two.

In the US, Excedrin has both acetaminophen and ASA (with caffeine), so again, it makes no therapeutic sense to alternate this with plain Tylenol.

Both Aspirin and ibuprofen inhibit platelet aggregation via Cox-1 inhibition (see JV’s post). I have personally seen excessive bruising/bleeding in as few as 5 doses in sensitive people.

Influenza doesn’t usually cause bleeding on its own, rather this is often attributed to ASA/ibuprofen use during treatment. From this perspective, ASA is perfectly fine for treatment of fever due to the flu.

As was mentioned before, there are “hidden” sources of ASA that may be consumed concurrently with antipyretics, namely ENO and PEPTO-BISMOL (both contain salicylates, from which Aspirin is derived).

A couple of side-effects to note: Pepto-Bismol turns your tongue black, and ASA in high doses causes tinnitus (ringing in the ears).

Tylenol is still your safest choice, followed by ibuprofen, then aspirin.

Green Mom – at 10:50

Question- can you use acetaminiphen beyond its expy date? Is the date a writen in stone do not use one day past- or is it ok to use if it had been stored in a cool spot and hasn’t crumbled/discolored? Thanks

RPh – at 11:08

Green Mom – at 10:50

For most (99%) of medications, the expiry date is the date before which the company can guarantee that there is still at least 90% remaining potency of their medication.

For the most part, the medication is still good well beyond the expiry date, but the companies don’t want to spend the extra money to prove that to the FDA/HPB whatever, so they prove it to usually 2–4 years.

One major exception is liquid medication. Because these are usually in a sugary medium, they are prone to bacterial growth, and therefore stabilizers are used to inhibit it. Again, the expiry date on liquids represent the date before which (unopened) it loses 10% of its potency (see above). However, if you don’t want to start drinking bacterial cultures, I recommend open bottles be replaced within 6 months of opening.

Keep all medication in a dry cool (room temperature) place. A bedroom drawer or linen closet is a good choice. Never store medication in the bathroom or kitchen (very high humidity and usually heat).

For OTCs like Tylenol, ASA, etc. I would take it confidently for up to 6 months after it “expires”.

ASA degrades faster than Tylenol and makes a vinegary smell (converts to Acetic acid). If the smell is overpowering, it’s time for a fresh batch.

lugon – at 12:23

Compile and wikiize, please! Or is this on the wiki already?

ML – at 13:31

Use canned tuna…the mercury in it will kill the bird flu..

anonymous – at 14:30

There may be some confusion as to why I suggested no aspirin or ibuprofen for H5N1 flu. I only suggested that because of the tendency for some patients with H5N1 to end up with bleeding problems and cytokine storm. Aspirin and ibuprofen would increase that bleeding. If a person has either the seasonal flu, or a mild case of H5N1 flu, without those complications, then those medicines should be of no problem, but there is no telling how the course of the H5N1 flu will end up. I felt it would be more safe than sorry to avoid those medicines. Aspirin can cause more bleeding problems than ibuprofen, but they still work the same way. It depends on the risk you want to take. Some people may choose to take that risk. I am just suggesting a way to be most cautious. There may be no medical care for the majority of patients with H5N1. I feel that every small thing that could help is important.

I have read in a couple of articles where aspirin was avoided when a patient was thought to possibly have H5N1 flu. Here is one article: http://tinyurl.com/h3fud

On page 7 of this article (their page 195), they show in a flow chart that if a patient is thought to have flu-like symptoms (ILI), and is suspected to have H5N1, then aspirin is avoided in their care.

JV – at 14:30

Sorry, I am anonymous above.

Lily – at 14:32

Am debating if I am coming down with something, eyes hurt and are burning. Will check in the mirror first to make sure its not conjunctivitis, and then my purse to make sure I have my indian cure. Lomatium. Wouldn’t use my tamiflu if it is a virus. Driving to spend a few days away, and then another trip, so I better not be coming down with anything. Will stop at a CVS on the way and load up. Maybe allergies. This is how its going to be if we are isolated. Minor symptoms will be watched, and we will be dosing ourselves as each reveals itself. How many times have you felt fine and then a half hour later you are sick as a pup.Time to get a new bottle of asperin.

Lily – at 16:40

Still don’t know, but canceled out anyway. Disppointed someone but better to become sick at home,if indeed I am coming down with something.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 17:15

JV, that’s an important consideration, I’ll note that too, on my bottles of aspirin and let each adult decide (beforehand) what they wish to do.

Lily, I’m soooo sorry you’re ill, please get rest and fluids! Maybe you can reschedule the trip with your friend.

05 June 2006

RPh – at 09:54

Lily - don’t know where you live, but it sounds like allergies to me. Take a couple of Benadryl - if you feel better in a couple of hours, you nailed it.

Don’t use Tamiflu - influenza doesn’t typically involve the eyes first and foremost (although it can be a mild symptom).

Conjunctivitis doesn’t usually occur suddenly in the absence of other irritants (corneal scratch or what-have-you).

Likely, allergies. (Trees are going full bore right now).

Gary – at 10:25

JV Many thanks for the info. You confirmed my suspicions about aspirin and ibuprofin. I’ll avoid them should there be any question of bird flu. One other question (and perhaps this is not the proper thread for it) is it wise to take medicines that one thinks will strengthen the immune system to, hopefully, ward off bird flu? I’ve seen this advocated on other threads, usually, by women hoping to protect their children. Leaving aside the question of the effacacy of these measures, if a cytokine storm is a suspected cause of the high mortality of young, otherwise healthy people, is it wise to take measures to enhance their immune systems to prevent bird flu?

Gary – at 10:25

JV Many thanks for the info. You confirmed my suspicions about aspirin and ibuprofin. I’ll avoid them should there be any question of bird flu. One other question (and perhaps this is not the proper thread for it) is it wise to take medicines that one thinks will strengthen the immune system to, hopefully, ward off bird flu? I’ve seen this advocated on other threads, usually, by women hoping to protect their children. Leaving aside the question of the effacacy of these measures, if a cytokine storm is a suspected cause of the high mortality of young, otherwise healthy people, is it wise to take measures to enhance their immune systems to prevent bird flu?

Lily – at 10:45

Must have been allergies. We have had tropical torrential rains for days now. Probably why joints ached. Took Benedryl, felt better quickly, eustachian tubes clogged up also. But this is why is is so difficult. Symptons that are general can be so many different things. Doctors are trained to do differential. I do them on myself since I have been immersed in medicine for quite some time. Mothers do it often on their children. Women try to nip things in the bud as far as illness goes, but men tend to tough things out, and let it get a bit furthere along before they complain about anything. My little problem was nipped in the bud, so I’m free to do what I want without thinking I’ll make someone else sick.

JV – at 20:34

Gary -

An inhanced immune response is what cytokine storm is. This is the reason why many believe that people in the prime of life who contract H5N1 have a higher death rate…because they have a better immune response, which will then cause cytokine storm.

The question is really what medicine can a person take to quiet or reverse the cytokine storm that accompanies the H5N1 flu. When I first started to study H5N1 about 2 years ago, I looked at all the literature to see what would work for cytokine storm. Steroids were studied. NSAIDs (like ibuprofen)were studied. The only thing I could find that really worked was OX40:Ig. This is made by Xenova. I have not heard that is is out of trials yet. It seems to be a miraculous drug. See this Xenova site: http://tinyurl.com/ergky . Other than this medicine, I have not heard of any treatment suggested to be a true help against the cytokine storm.

I am not an immunologist. So, this is my limited knowledge. If some researcher has more recent info, please help us all.

07 June 2006

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 08:12

bump

DemFromCTat 08:34

Gary – at 10:25

Leaving aside the question of the effacacy of these measures

LOL. You can’t leave that aside and then ask for logical advice. ;-)

Virtually none of the advocated therapies has been shown to do much of anything in real time settings (see sites like Natural Standard or check our wiki alternative therapy section, including the general section (what really works?). Some make more sense than others based on limited data. Some are certainly safer than others. Most assume a better understanding of the immune system than we have.

I’m not advocating for anything other than evidence-based information. But first, do no harm (the theme of this thread). Second, accept the answer “we don’t really know” re immune building. Third, interpret that as “we don’t know if we should” as much as “we don’t know if we should not”. In the end, the Flu Wiki recommends checking with your doctor and doesn’t purport to be the source of your medical advice (sorry, obligatory disclaimer). We’re the encyclopedia… the place to start your research, not end it.

lauraB – at 08:45

JV - thanks for the spleen info. I’ll definitely have dh talk with his doc. I am also going to stock up on more Tylenol to be cautious.

11 June 2006

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 13:29

Here’s a big pill to swallow.

OK, I’m prepping right? And I’m laying low, not making a big fuss, just spending dh’s money for supplies & feeling good. Got my lists, got basics, got beyond basics, and part of my plan included getting us pneumonia shots & update our Tetnus & then get flu shots in the Fall. I even read up ahead of time what side effects to watch for — slight soreness & redness around the needle site and maybe a little swelling. More serious side effects had to do with constricted breathing.

So I got the appointments for us (dh had taken off work to finish kitchen cabinet installation) and off we went. Tetnus in left shoulder, pneumonia in the right — it stung.

We head home & in a couple of hours my muscles in my arm start hurting. Another hour & they’re REALLY hurting. Couple of more hours & my arm has a ‘temperature’ and is still aching even worse. The doc said if I had muscle soreness just take an Advil or something, so I did. Didn’t touch the pain. I felt like I’d tried to stop a speeding freight train by holding out my arm & failed! It got to where I couldn’t really bend or move my arm without excrutiating pain and it was sore to touch from my elbow to my shoulder. By suppertime, my arm is totally useless and it’s swelling and I’m feeling like an invalid, wondering how on earth I’d make it through a Pandemic with this kind of pain & not being able to use one arm?

You could put your hand NEAR my arm and feel the heat rolling off it from the fever going on there and when I stood with my arm at my side and looked in the mirror to compare it to the ‘good’ arm my swollen arm looked like it was melting down over my elbow it had so much trauma going on; the skin seemed to just be sagging like a water balloon! And there were red blotches all around the swollen area, which basically affected the back and side of my arm above the elbow — red smooth blotches, no itching, just PAIN!

So the rest of the night, I had it wrapped in an ice pack and propped up on pillows — if you don’t already know this, if you put Dawn dishwashing detergent in a ziplock baggie and drop that bag down inside another baggie just for safety from spills, and freeze it, it makes a wonderfully squishy ice wrap that molds easily to whatever body part you need to put it on and BOY does it stay cold! I figured this condition seemed to be moving down my arm and if it moved down to my fingers they’d explode or something gross like that so propping it up had to help. And it did.

I felt just miserable from the discomfort and ache, and so I went to bed with my arm propped up on a pillow and got up about 4 times in the night, taking aspirin each time. By this morning, it was much better, but still awful looking, but I felt like I was on the mend. Now it’s noon & it’s slightly sore to bend, I can lift my elbow above shoulder level which I couldn’t do yesterday, and the remaining swelled area fits in the palm of my hand — still hot, still red, but it’s down to that size now, all around the back and side of my arm so I guess I’m going to live.

Now keep in mind that I’ve never even had the regular flu — I’ve always been extremely lucky with my health, but I know that I am somewhat sensitive to some medications — for instance the non-drowsy stuff might still make me sleep, or whatever is wrong has worn me out so easily that once I get some medical relief, I just crash & sleep.

Anyway, all that kept going through my mind was all of you here dealing with stomach flu this week, and discussing the hardships and how tired & sick you felt, and thinking about little ole me, having to possibly roll a dead husband out the door with me congested & coughng, & all with a useless arm to boot, if we were into pandemic conditions!

One of the problems I noticed was that I am soooooooooo right-handed that I’m just helpless with my left hand — stirring soup, cleaning litterpans, bathing, hygiene, chopping kindling, etc, all done with a strong right arm!!! Not yesterday! Not that I was chopping kindling but if I HAD been, I’d probably have chopped off my head in the process if I only had my left arm to lead with!

We didn’t know if I was reacting to the ‘pneumonia recipe’ or if the nurse just stuck me in a nerve or in a muscle at a really bad place or what. Going to a doc-in-a-box Sunday AM was in the back of my mind if the icing & elevating didn’t help during the night.

Whatever caused such a reaction, it really put into perspective for me how being as weak as the flu seems to make people, would be so much worse thn my arm was. NOT looking forward to anything even like the flu, much less the BF! Anyone else had that kind of reaction to a shot??

cactus az – at 13:56
  Actually it`s a fairly common reaction to a vacine type shot. It`s a hypersenstivity type, and you did all the right things to treat it.

  Everyone above 45 should have a bottle of baby aspirin in your BF supplies.Take 1 a day. When TSHTF you don`t want to have a heart attack.
 Reyes syndrom is very rare, and very scary when it happens.In 30+ years, I`ve personally only taken care of 2 teens with it, and both survived with ICU care.
 As I`m a card carrying old fart, my older kids routinely got aspirin when running fevers, was the only thing available, then. I was lucky, no Reyes.
 When using Tylenol, be VERY careful that you don`t go over the daily limit. Liver failure 6 weeks down the road is not a fun way to die, if you`ve survived the BF.
I’m-workin’-on-it – at 17:02

Well, I’m glad to know this is fairly common (at least I think I am), but golly I feel for anyone who has to deal with it — hypersensitivity huh? I’ll have to call my doc tomorrow and have them put that in my files, although I doubt I’ll soon forget this! But someone needs to know that, in case I and my husband are both unconscious for some reason. Boy, it’s really no better at 4pm now, than this morning, but I’ve been asleep all day practically, since I didn’t get ANY restful sleep last night - hence I had more aspirin during the night than I have had today.

It’s also good to know I did the right thing…..that was just too wild for my taste.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 17:03

I meant to say THANKS catus az for your insight — there’s always room to learn, isn’t there? Thanks for teaching!

LA Escapee – at 18:41

Tylenol can cause liver damage in some people, especially when taken day after day. A friend (who was a heavy drinker, BTW), was diabetic and had a leg wound that didn’t heal. Rather than go to the Dr., he took Tylenol every day until he wound up with liver failure. He died.

This was quite a few years ago, but since then I’ve read a number of warnings about not overusing Tylenol for long periods. Apparently something similar happened to a number of people. I don’t believe it’s recommended to take it longer than 3 days. You might want to have a backup alternate on hand, just in case. After the friend died, my ex will not take Tylenol to this day.

30 June 2006

Melanie – at 22:36

The reveres comment here:

“Pop quiz: what is the leading cause of acute liver failure in the US?

Answer: Tylenol (acetaminophen).

This has been known for a few years, but the general public (and many health care providers) remain unaware of it. The “therapeutic window” (the difference between a safe and harmful dose) is narrow and the drug is found in many different formulations (an estimated 200), often labeled non-aspirin pain relievers. Thus it is relatively easy to take several different over-the-counter and even prescription drugs (e.g., Percoset and Vicodin) that have acetaminophen in them and exceed the maximum recommended daily dose of 4 grams/day (8 pills, each with 500 mgms; i.e., two maximum strength tablets four times a day). It is thought that as little as 7.5 grams (less than double that) might result in severe liver injury in some people. (MedPageToday, reporting on a recent paper by Larson AM et al “Acetaminophen-Induced Acute Liver Failure: Results a United States Multicenter, Prospective Study.” Hepatology 2005;42:1364–1372.)

While liver toxicity is still relatively rare compared to the estimated 8 to 9 billion tablets ingested annually in this country, marketing practices make it more likely to happen. For one thing, the drug is aggressively marketed as being an especially safe analgesic compared to aspirin. It is true its gastric effects are less, but the liver toxicity is more severe. In addition, it is sold in a Regular Strength (325 mg) and Extra Strength (500 mg) formulation, with the lower dose receiving significantly less room on the drugstore shelf, according to the American Liver Foundation. Others have noted that the bulk containers (“like M&Ms”) also contribute to the problem. They suggest either putting the tablets in blister packs or restricting the amount that can be purchased at one time.”

Read the whole thing: this is a public health risk because of the way it is marketed. This is not a “benign” drug, there is no such thing.

glennk – at 22:41

JV there is a topic on the subject of Cytokine storm. Statins are being looked at as a possible drug class that will have some effect on the immune response.

Edna Mode – at 23:08

Aspirin should not be taken by ADULTS OR CHILDREN!!

Here is a critical link that everyone reading this post should read regarding risk of Reye’s Syndrom in adults: http://www.reyessyndrome.org/aspirin.htm.

From the Reye’s Syndrome Foundation Web Site (http://www.reyessyndrome.org/): “Reye’s Syndrome, a deadly disease, strikes swiftly and can attack any child or adult without warning. All body organs are affected, with the liver and brain suffering most seriously. While the cause and cure remain unknown, research has established a link between Reye’s Syndrome and the use of aspirin and other salicylate-containing medications.”

The list of salicylate-containing medications is a long one, and everyone should familiarize him- or herself with it (see the link at the top of this message).

Directly related to this topic: In December I read the book “Homeopathic Treatment of Influenza” by Sandra Perko. I have never used homeopathy in my life, but when I realized I probably wouldn’t be able to get Tamiflu, I decided to look into alternatives that are available.

Anyway, according to Perko’s book aspirin was the allopathic (i.e., traditional) treatment of choice in 1918–1919. It almost always resulted in “prostration” of the patient (many of the symptoms of prostration are similar to the symptoms of Reye’s), and her theory—as well as that of others—is that many, many people *who would have otherwise recovered* in 1918–19 died as the result of undiagnosed Reye’s Syndrome. The CFR among homeopaths (who did not use aspirin) was reportedly a fraction of that for the allopathic physicians. Now, given that this was a homeopathic book, I tend to consider the source when vetting this info. However, all of the other factual statements she made in the book were legit, so I have no reason to question this information.

Whether child or adult, please do not take aspirin.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 13:29: It sounds like you had the same pneumovax reaction everyone in our family had. Excruciating discomfort in the arm we had the shots in, including involving our shoulder joint. Waking up in the night with pain, etc. Our pain lessened each day but lasted about three days total. My friend is getting the pneumo for her family, and I warned her to ready for some big whine time from the kids. I don’t think our reaction was out of the ordinary, but it did stink for sure. Next time you get a vaccine, get it in the non-dominant arm.

Edna Mode – at 23:09

Also, Ibuprofen is not on the Reye’s Syndrome list (which is not 100% complete by their own admission), and every pediatrician I know has recommended its use to me for both my children all their lives specifically as fever reducer.

Melanie – at 23:10

01 July 2006

MAV in Colorado – at 14:59

Edna Mode – at 23:08

Aspirin should not be taken by ADULTS OR CHILDREN!!

Don’t be tellin folks to be getting off their aspirin EM!!! As you said, Aspirin should NOT be used in kids with the flu. Ever. The cause of Reyes is unknown! Studies have shown that in kids (<16) aspirin taken during viral illness does increase the risk of Reyes.

Adults who take daily aspirin for CV disease (stroke, cardiac, vascular) would be well advised (IMO) to continue per Rx during a pandemic. The “anti platelet” effect will be very important in adults cramped up for long periods of time in thier homes. Dehydration (from rationing), lack of activity and illness all contribute to the increased risk of clot formation leading to stroke and pulmonary emboli. During a pandemic, increased stress and exertional anginal (chest tightness) patients will benefit from aspirin dosing possibly preventing progression to a full blown MI. Studies have shown significant benefit from aspirins anticoagulation effects in these patients.

Edna Mode – at 18:57

MAV in Colorado – at 14:59 MAV, I respectfully disagree. The context of this discussion is aspirin use during fever-inducing illness (for our purposes, flu). If you go to the National Institute of Health’s Web page on Reye’s Syndrome, it clearly states that while RS is most common in children, it can occur at any age. The cause is a mystery, but the NIH again states clearly that there is a documented correlation between aspirin use during illness and the development of RS. Also, your definition of a child as someone <16 is incorrect according to both the NIH and the National Reye’s Syndrome Association definitions. According to those definitions, a child is anyone 19 years old or younger. Not trying to split hairs, here. People with kids need correct information to make accurate, informed decisions.

Assuming your information is correct on the topic of aspirin as a cardiovascular prophylactic treatment, it would make sense that anyone who is *otherwise healthy* and is deriving benefit by taking aspirin may want to continue.

However, I stand by my original assertion. Based on the information from both the NIH and the NRSA, aspirin should not be taken by adults or children who are sick with the flu.

MAV in Colorado – at 19:25

I guess my point would be that if you are currently taking aspirin for the CV benefits and have apparently not developed Reyes to this point, I would not stop it. The risk of Reyes in someone who has been taking aspirin daily must be nearly zero. Where as the risks associated from stopping this form of anticoagulation could be significant. For those that may be unaware, long term daily apirin use has been recommended and used for CV disease for many years. I am not aware of any Reyes syndrome studies or incidence in this population.

MAV in Colorado – at 20:10

Edna Mode is correct. please consider my posts as footnotes.

28 July 2006

Sacmer – at 13:56

I checked a couple of websites on Reyes INCIDENCE and found a quote of 1 case/1 million population. In the USA about 50 cases are indentified a year. 90% of cases are under age 15. Now I also googled the USA census and we are at 295 million. So we should have 295 cases a year. Some may be missed but the incidence could be less than 50/yr.

Personally Aspirin works wonders for me on aches and fevers of flu when I have had it. Ibuprofen tears up my stomach worse than enteric coated ASA. Acetominophen does not reduce fevers as well as ASA for me but I usually alternate it with ASA anyway.

As a physician I believe that it is safe for adults to take Aspirin. Yes you may have a small statistical risk of Reyes.

anon_22 – at 14:53

Sacmer

“As a physician I believe that it is safe for adults to take Aspirin. Yes you may have a small statistical risk of Reyes.”

I agree. I think it is all a matter of taking calculated risks and being educated about it.

Everyone agrees that giving kids aspirins is a bad idea.

For adults, for most people meds such as acetaminophen or ibuprofen work, but there are some people for whom aspirin may work better, or they have to take them for cardiovascular problems. It would not be advisable to stop if that applies to you.

nsthesia – at 15:29

NO aspirin (ASA) for kids unless prescribed by pediatrician. Some kids ARE prescribed it for various conditions, but usually, in the US, it is not routinely used for fevers.

Many adults take ASA for a multitude of reasons, including cardiac/stroke prophylaxis. As mentioned, do NOT stop taking your ASA if directed to do so, without being instructed by your physician/healthcare provider.

ASA, NSAIDs, Acetaminophen (Tylenol) will all reduce fever in adults. One may work better than another. Each has it’s benefits and risks. ALL DRUGS HAVE RISKS! Melanie’s post re: Tylenol is accurate. If you drink alcohol with any regularity or have any history of liver problems, this drug may not be for you.

ASA and NSAIDs are well known for causing GI distress and bleeding. ASA (unless enteric coated) usually moreso than the NSAIDs. GI distress and bleeding was one of the problems drug makers were trying to solve by coming up with the NSAIDs. For a few years, we thought the NSAIDs were a great solution. And THEN, we started seeing all of these GI bleed patients. Even today, with the population aging and having more complaints of arthritis and other inflammatory problems, we see a great deal of gastritis and GI bleeds from ASA and/or NSAID therapy.

NSAIDs also have other adverse reactions. They can precipitate renal failure in people with kidney problems. I am always extremely careful when administering these drugs to the elderly. Short term use is usually OK, but even that may cause the kidneys to take a “hit”. These drugs can also worsen hypertension. These effects occur because of the way NSAIDs work.

Many people do not seem to be aware that NSAIDs can cause significant esophagitis and GI bleeding. That was the reason we looked for still another solution and the COX-2 Inhibitors were developed. They suppressed the inflammatory response without causing much GI distress. But then they were found to cause stroke/cardiac problems resulting in the withdrawal of most of these drugs.

So…to summarize:

ASA: none for kids, can cause systemic/GI bleeding NSAIDs: can cause GI bleeding, renal dysfunction with long term use ACETAMINOPHEN: can cause liver damage with concurrent alcohol use, large doses

Of course, there are many other benefits/risks associated with these drugs. Ask your pharmacist, healthcare provider for specific info.

03 September 2006

Urdar-Norway – at 19:05

a littel coment, Tylenol (paracetamol.damn those brandnames!..) was given to me when I almost cut of my finger, also once when I had dental work it was prescibed, and it did not work for me! Ibuprien on the other hand cured my pain in half hour. Mesage is, dont stock up on only one. Get both, after all many more thing can happen to you than the flu during a pandemic, and heavy pain and SIP dont mix well..

anonymous – at 20:59

ASA and NSAID are abbreviations, medical field shorthand for writing chart notes.

ASA = acetylsalicylic acid (chemical name) = aspirin (Bayer, etc.) ASA is a commonly used shorthand specifically referring to blood-thinning therapy of 81 mg daily for stroke and cardiac patients. This is NOT the same as using aspirin for headache and fevers. Adults can temporarily use aspirin for pain relief and fevers. Children should not.

Acetaminophen = Tylenol, etc. Pain relief and fevers.

Ibuprofin = Motrin, etc. Pain relief and fevers, anti-inflammatory.

NSAID = Non-Steroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug = naproxen sodium (Naprosin), Celebrex, etc. Used for arthritis, sports injuries, tendonitis, etc.

04 September 2006

Bump – at 00:51

09 September 2006

rvoa3cu@google.com – at 00:38

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SPAM ALERT – at 01:56
Murphy – at 07:25

As a nurse within the major incident team, we have discussed drug treatment in the first instance.

I am in the UK so drug names may vary. NO anti-emetic or anti-diarroheal drugs whatsoever.

Children—Paracetamol first, if no reduction in fever, Ibuprofen 2hours later. Continue to alternate at 2 hourly intervals. If temperature continues to rise or refuses to come down. Paracetamol suppositories to be given.(I am not sure if these are available over the counter in the US)

Adults—Paracetamol first for fever. If patient in pain also, Paracetamol with codeine can be given. If no response Ibuprofen or Diclofenic to be given and then alternated 2 hourly with paracetamol. If patient has a history of stomach problems, particularly ulcers. Ibuprofen to be given rectally. I have read on this thread some concerns Re: Usage of some drugs and liver damage. I presume you are talking about Paracetamol. One thing to note is, Paracetamol in the US carrys the anti-dote. It doesn’t in the UK and is the drug of choice for overdoses BUT even in someone with a damaged or weakened liver it would take a serious amount to kill(more than would be needed to reduce fever over a few days to a week). In the case of a fever associated with bird flu’ it would be my drug of choice. For young, old and those with pre-existing illness. I know everyone on here is prepared but in cases where someone may call you and ask for advice and all they have is aspirin. Tell them to give it..Aspirin is the lesser of the 2 evils.

Murphy – at 07:41

Anon at 20:59

Just to note..Naproxen is not being newly prescribed in UK and most countries in Europe because it carries a very high risk of internal bleeding including intestinal and urinary tract! Those already on it and who have no side effects can remain on it.

Celebrex is no longer prescribed and is in the process of being banned because it carries a high risk of strokes and sudden death.

We have to make a balanced judgement. BUT Naproxen and celebrex should be avoided like the plague or bird flu’..Sorry for the bad joke but if we didn’t laugh we could drive ourselves mad!!

lady biker – at 08:54

two years ago I had a heart attack and I have been on a daily dose of aspirin ever since and the Dr gives me prescribed Ibuprofin for pain and I also have prescribed Percocet for dental work. so far no problems, and I go for blood work every three months. of course that would come to a screeching halt if I had to SIP. but I’m stocking up on my regular medications and hopeing for the best. gonna hang in here as long as The Good Lord will let me. Got too much Happy tracks and hate and discontent to spread to leave yet. LOLOL. Good Morning everyone and have a great weekend.

12 September 2006

RPh – at 13:16

My understanding regarding naproxen (Naprosyn and others) is a little different. It has been long known that all NSAIDs (including Naproxen) can cause internal bleeding. In this regard most traditional anti-flammatories (NSAIDs) are more or less on par with one another.

Recent attention has been drawn to the increased cardiovascular risks associated with the COX-2 inhibitors (Vioxx, Bextra and Celebrex - currently Celebrex is the only one currently still available in Canada). What is interesting is that naproxen shared this increased CV risk, whereas before it was thought to have a positive effect.

Not that it is really a major issue, as Tylenol (acetaminophen), Aspirin (ASA, acetylsalicylic acid) and Motrin or Advil (ibuprofen) are just effective in treating fever and have been proven safer than any of the other NSAIDs.

The incidence of Reye’s syndrome is very rare, and can occur in the absence of Aspirin. So from that perspective, if that’s all you ARE ABLE TO GET and you consider the fever possibly life-threatening, go ahead. If you are ABLE TO GET Tylenol or ibuprofen, use that first.

Note the stress: just because you don’t HAVE something on hand doesn’t prevent you from getting it from elsewhere. Most places will be open for business in some form or another, and these products can be found at a very wide variety of locations.

anonymous – at 15:15

anonymous – at 20:59 What I wrote is simply a short identification and clarification of the drugs and abbreviations being used in this thread, because it was starting to get a little confused.

If you’ll reread it - there is absolutely NO suggested use. Each and every person on this thread has access to medical advice. Use it. If in doubt at all, go with advice from your own medical provider. They know what allergies, sensitivities and conditions you have. Read the labels and the packaging. It contains proper doses and appropriate uses. Most important - every OTC product has a different formula of chemical. Anacin, Excedrin, etc. These products have some of this and some of that, with a bit of caffeine for that migraine (which is not good for a fever) etc. etc. Read the label.

We’re a society of drug users for every little thing, with a daily barrage of advertising about “that everyday pain”. Parents routinely hand kids Tylenol to shut them up and get them to school. I’m very sure that a number of the people on this thread carry bottles of pain reliever in their purses and in the desk drawer at work.

Me - I LOVE Celebrex; Naprosin is pretty good too. I never take Tylenol, but would give it to a suffering teething baby without hesitation. Same with ibuprofen. I would never even consider giving aspirin (not to be confused with ‘ASA’ - 81 mg is NOT the proper dose for reducing fever and pain) to teenagers or children, for the simple reason that there are enormous quantities and varieties of better options. Common sense and moderation, folks.

RPh – at 15:26

actually, ASA 81mg is “Asprin” (acetylsalicylic acid). The old “Children’s Aspirin” from Bayer has in fact 80mg of ASA in it. They stopped marketing ASA for kids due to the Reye’s syndrome thing, though. In the meantime, it was discovered that for blood thinning purposes, a full 5-grain (325mg) dose of ASA was not commonly required - hence the 81mg dose.

15 September 2006

Leo7 – at 00:56

HI everyone. I just posted a warning on the fever thread about people taking daily aspirin for heart health and using Ibuprofin for fever management. Ibufprofin-Advil-Aleve cancels out the effects of aspirin thereby putting your heart health at risk. I would talk to my doctor if you’re taken daily aspirin, but I suspect you will be steered to Tylenol. Forgive me if this was mentioned earlier it’s a long thread and I didn’t have time to read all of it. See FDA Alert:http://tinyurl.com/qau5x

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 14:06

Thanks Leo7, I added that to my notes that go in with my medicine bottles!

30 September 2006

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 22:26

bump

04 November 2006

Genoa – at 18:58

Just finished reading most of the posts here, with great interest. I just wanted to add one suggestion: when sick (especially if you have a fever) or even if you are well and caring for someone who is sick, it is a very good idea to start a running list/chart indicating time medication is given/taken, name of medication, and dosage. This is especially important if taking multiple medications, but really helpful at any time to keep track of what one should or shouldn’t take at a given time and what has already been used.

05 November 2006

The Doctor – at 20:12

In my books, I have stated that use of aspirin and other NSAIDs like ibuprofen and naproxen are causes of Reyes Syndrome. Do to the comments in this thread, I took another look at this recently and now think that I overstated the case. While aspirin is a clear cause of Reyes, use of the other NSAIDs including ibuprofen, have not been associated with this serious side effect. As always, your child’s doctor is the best guide for what to give him or her. If the books have another printing, I will reword this section.

Thanks to the FW community for helping me provide better information.

Grattan Woodson, MD, FACP

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.DoWeUseAspirinForFluOrNot
Page last modified on November 05, 2006, at 08:12 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Woodsons Flu Manual is the Real Deal

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Woodsons Flu Manual is the Real Deal

19 October 2006

De jure – at 22:39

I just received my copy of Dr. Woodson’s Bird Flu Manual. In my opinion, it is indispensible if you have children. There is a special chapter called “Home Drug Compounding” (Chapter 9). This chapter alone is worth the money spent on the book. As far as I can tell from a cursory reading of the book, it is everything that Dr. Woodson said it would be, and more. Thank you for answering most of my previous unanswered questions with this book, Dr. Woodson. And if the pandemic is as bad as many predict, I’m sure my children will end up thanking you as well.

20 October 2006

jplanner – at 00:56

Is this book different than the book (once?) available on fluwikie? I read the whole thing (apologies, I have dial up it takes so long to open I am choosing not to specifically check and prepare.) I don’t remember anything about drug compounding, I remember advice about acetominofen and ibuprofen and staggering them, in higher doses than usual. I remember he gave dosages that he recommended…

so this is a different book than the pamphlet of fluwikie then? WHere does one get it, a hard copy that is (have no printer) thanks

MAV in Colorado – at 01:06

New edition, some changes-additions/deletions. Amazon.com or his website

mojo – at 01:33

I am waiting for it to ship from amazon.

Sthrn Tr – at 05:44

De jure @ 22:39

I agree wholeheartedly. I have been prepping for over a year but learned many new things from this book. I also think it’s vital for the compounding/making elixirs chapter. I want to have a durable bound copy in my hands for reference if and when I’m forced to treat my kids at home. Other tips I learned include, if worse comes to worse, those N-95 masks can be reused if treated. Don’t hang my solar showers as shown on the package and add sphagnum moss to my camp toilets.

De jure – at 07:16

jplanner at 00.56: Yes, the hard copy is, in my opinion, quite a bit different from the web version, which I had also previously downloaded. Like I said, for me at least, the chapter on compounding would have been worth the price of the book all by itself. It tells you how to take adult-sized medicine and turn it into children’s medicine (oral suspensions). It covers adult-strength Tamiflu and acetominaphen, among others. The book gives a dosage chart to tell you how much to give your child according to his or her weight. The chapters on food, alternative energy, water, etc. are also very well written. I was glad to see that I had already done most of what was recommended in those chapters.

I just received the book yesterday afternoon and have been reading selective chapters ever since. The more I read it, the more I believe it is one of the more valuable tools I have picked up since I have started prepping.

Goju – at 07:36

I ordered last week… can’t wait to get it and get scared all over again! Just in time for Halloween.

De jure – at 15:30

Dr. Woodson, Chapter 9 of your Bird Flu Manual has everything I’d want to reference except prednisone. Is it possible (advisable?) to use a prednisone suspension for children, or just resort to the pill form?

The Doctor – at 15:47

Thanks for the kind words about The Bird Flu Manual.

I decided against putting prednisone, a corticosteroid, because I could not see any reason to recommend that it be included in the Flu Treatment Kit. There are many important uses for this drug. In fact I purchased a stockpile of the drug for my Pandemic Survivor Group’s Neighborhood Heath Network. The more people belonging to your group, the more likely that you will have need for prednisone.

While the average family will not need prednisone, on an individual basis however, this may not be true. For instance, if your child has asthma, having a good store of prednisone could be lifesaving. This is something that your doctor will need to help you with and while I know that my profession has been very discouraging to those requesting drug stockpiles so far, don’t give up on them yet. They will come around sooner or later.

Grattan Woodson, MD, FACP

Pixie – at 16:18

Dr. Woodson - on the point of your peers in the medical community allowing individual clients to obtain prescriptions for a small personal quantity of the necessary anti-virals and antibiotics in advance of a pandemic:

My area doctors are adamantly opposed to writing prescriptions for these necessary drugs, so I find your chapters of the Bird Flu Manual that delineate how, specifically, to use them to be invaluable for those that may have such drugs in their possession, but of no help to those of us who have been unable to obtain these prescriptions in advance. In fact, reading the chapters of The Bird Flu Manual that pertain to this issue has been a very frustrating experience. We come away with the definite feeling that “that would be nice IF…” and then stop reading.

I have read your excellent essay “Support for a Personal Tamiflu Stockpile” at the Bird Flu Manual website http://tinyurl.com/ymzmfz , and I understand that it is meant to be used to help persuade physcians to write prescriptions for the very drugs that will later run short during a pandemic. You begin your essay and your argument with:

“It is responsible and ethical for physicians to prescribe Tamiflu for their patients to stockpile and use later during a possible Bird Flu Pandemic.”

However, in my area Yale University has a great deal of influence and last year at this time they ran a conference that considered the ethical dimensions of the pandemic from the point of view of the medical community. One of their “conclusions” it seems was that it has been deemed unfair to prescribe anti-virals and antibiotics in advance to affluent and educated people who both can afford them and who understand the perils of an advancing pandemic, while the less educated and less affluent will not have this advantage. This reasoning, rather than that of scarcity now, has been offered to me as reason to refuse to write these prescriptions by more than one medical professional.

My children’s pediatrician was one of those who refused on these grounds. She is a very prominent, influential, physcian here. Her father is also a doctor, and one who wrote a textbook in pediatrics that is standard in the field. I will be meeting with my children’s pediatrician in two weeks. Can you think of anything to say to this professional, beyond what you have written in your excellent essay at the Bird Flu Manual website, that might be able to change this influential professional’s opinion? Otherwise, your chapters on administration of anti-virals and anti-biotics appear to many of us like diamonds in the windows of Tiffany’s - nice to dream aobut, but there’s no way they are part of our own experience. (And I do not need to tell you that if we do not get this problem handled now, after the pandemic begins it will be far too late).

Also, I have a question about the ethics of physcians serving a generalized ideal of “good for mankind” vs. serving the good of their own clients and patients. In the medical community, which good has the higher value and imperative?

Thanks, Dr. Woodson, for any input and assistance you can give on this issue.

Bird Guano – at 16:29

It’s the LATER part I’m worried about.

The medical profession is, in some areas, still stuck in the 1950′s.

I bought several copies of the hard copy from Amazon.

We keep two at the fire station, and I have two at home, one for general use and one designated for the isolation room.

De jure – at 16:42

Bird Guano at 16:29: You just gave me an excellent idea. It would be worth it to order a copy and put it in the waiting room (anonymously, of course) of our local physician, with the paragraph at the bottom of page 43 (The Flu Treatment Kit) bookmarked and highlighted. Doctors never read any of the stuff in their waiting rooms, and after getting asked about it by all of his patients repeatedly, he might just cave in. A call back to the doctor in a week or so might just do the trick. :)

Bird Guano – at 16:50

I find Guerilla education is usually most effective.

Good idea.

AVanartsat 17:35

One thing I have to wonder about when Doctors refuse to write prescriptions so that people can have these drugs on hand. Are they afraid of the Govt regulators coming down on them (not too likely), or are they afraid of the insurance companies. When people get prescriptions for drugs they usually use their insurance to pay for them. Doctors may be afraid of alienating their payers (the insurance companies) if they write too many prescriptions for drugs that aren’t “needed.”

De jure – at 17:43

AVanarts at 17:35: I’d be happy to tell you what my doctor told me. Last year he said he’d love to write a prescription for my kids for Tamiflu, but the CDC tracks the prescriptions looking for outbreaks. He didn’t say, but I guess he figures someone would then come down on him for writing unnecessary prescriptions.

Petticoat Junction – at 17:48

My 10 yr old daughter had a post-Prednisone/flare-up recheck with her asthma doc yesterday. I talked to him about my concerns that 1) if a minor respiratory virus threw her asthma into a flare requiring prednisone, she would be in a very bad place with PF and 2) even if, in a pandemic situation, she ‘only’ got a common respiratory virus leading to a flare-up but he was in over his head dealing with full-blown PF patients, she would still be in a mess due to no access to treatment.

He agreed and wrote me a Rx for two rounds of Prednisone. Great. But then I asked him about Tamiflu and his response was that stockpiling it had only been necessary last winter when supplies were short, but they had been assured of adequate stock for this year, so no Rx for that. He totally missed what I was saying and, as far as he was concerned (and I really like this doc otherwise), it was case closed, question answered.

Pixie’s right…for most of us, the meds are unattainable because we are at the mercy of docs who, due to misinformation, concerns about insurance, who-knows-what, keep those script pads shut tight. Incredibly frustrating, especially (for me) because I have four young children whose lives depend on me.

Petticoat Junction – at 17:49

De jure…sounds like we got similar responses re: Tamiflu - would have been ok last winter but not this one. Odd.

Spirit in the Wind – at 17:54

I got my book today! When TSHTF it will be indispensible.

My doctor won’t give me extra synthroid, gulocotrol or zocor (like they have street value or something.) Jeez. I am going to buy some somehow, since lack of synthroid will kill me and gloucotrol is necessary to control my sugar. I’ve gone to this doctor for 18 years. She is Soooo fired. She told me the government will give us vaccine. I bet she believes in the tooth fairy too. Time to get a new doctor.

Spirit in the Wind

Bird Guano – at 17:59

CDC issued guidance last year for MD’s to NOT write tamiflu for prophylaxis.

Same at the county level. The county medical authority here issued a memo to NOT write Tamiflu scrips for stockpiling, only if somebody presented with the flu and was high risk.

Same with Amantadine, but for a differing reason.

So yes, physicians are herd animals and don’t want to stick out for going against guidance.

I’m glad I got mine last year before all of the restrictions came down.

I saw it coming and sourced alternatively :-)

I’m good till 2010. By then hopefully there will be something better on the market.

Sthrn Tr – at 20:13

De Jure @ 16:42

Wow. Now, that is one great idea - put the manual in doctors’ waiting rooms.

Bird Guano @ 17:59

I sourced alternatively, as well. This is costly, as well as a gamble, but so far it’s worked. I’ve stockpile all of the recommended prescription medicines from foreign pharmacies, and they appear to be legitimate. Of course, you never know.

I was thrilled when I mentioned pandemic flu to my G.P., just last week, and he wrote a prescription for Tamiflu. Boy, did my faith in him increase. I recommend that hesitant folks take the plunge and ask their doctors. They might be surprised.

NauticalManat 20:51

Have repeated this many times on many different threads. Go out there and get the meds you need. There are reputable internet med suppliers. I think it is a disgrace that so many doctors will not help their long term patients. Gave my doctor Woodson’s pamphlet on why doctors should pre-subscribe Tamiflu, did not make any difference to him.. I complained about that for about a week, did the research and ordered and feel much better for having these things available. Are they genuine? Seem to be, many have used the company from which I obtained my antibiotics, Tamiflu from a company overseas with a real address and phone number. Will not repeat it here until I get one more order and then if anyone is interested will post it here.

Annonx2 – at 22:09

Pixie, Petticoat Junction..

my Doc said “No” to my request for Tamiflu etc. I too did the research (you can easily find the info via forum seach for Tamiflu) and purchased from an internet source. It’s not that difficult or expensive. And yes, they are ligit.

You can discuss philosophy & ethics till the cows come home … a waste of time & it pisses off the Docs (like spending time trying to teach pigs to fly). Or you can take action.

Gary Near Death Valley – at 22:19

I had downloaded the short version,,,,,and really want the long version, so I just ordered the book also. Even though I was a medic at one time in the fire service (gee far too long ago), and have prepped for years, I know that I will add to my education by having this.

21 October 2006

The Doctor – at 01:13

Here are a couple of suggestions for discussion with doctors who object to prescribing drugs to their patients to stockpile for use during the pandemic.

Pixie writes “One of their “conclusions” it seems was that it has been deemed unfair to prescribe anti-virals and antibiotics in advance to affluent and educated people who both can afford them and who understand the perils of an advancing pandemic, while the less educated and less affluent will not have this advantage.”

Well this position puts the lie to the obviously bogus notion that Yale is an elitist institution. This sentiment sounds like something coming out of revolutionary France in 1790 rather than one of the foremost bastions of privilege and wealth. Those promulgating this argument should recall that the sword or morality is quit sharp and cuts both ways.

In response I would ask the doctor espousing this position how many of her colleagues in the Yale medical community have obtained a stockpile of Tamiflu for their families. I will wager quite a few. While it not hypocritical for a doctor to obtain their own Tamiflu stockpile because our profession has been designated by CDC as a priority group to receive limited supplies of both anti-viral drugs and vaccines so we will survive to care for the sick and dying. This privilege does not extend to the families or friends of doctors. So, any doctor who uses this reason for not prescribing Tamifu to their patients but has obtained a stockpile for their family or friends is nothing less than a hypocrite. I wonder if she has bought Tamiflu for her children? If she had not but had a stockpile for her own use in case of illness, and her husband or child became ill, would she use her Tamiflu stockpile for them or not? The answer to this question is obvious and shows just how specious and empty it is to take a position like this that one really can’t keep when faced with an ethical dilemma like the scenario above. (On the other hand if she maintains that she would withhold the Tamiflu from her ill family member, find another doctor because this person is seriously out of touch with reality.)

My Roche representative keeps me up-to-date on Tamiflu issues and she told me recently that the company and its Tamiflu licensees have significantly ramped up production of the drug since last fall. They have found a substitute for star anis, which was one of the production rate limiting factors and one of the reasons for the product’s high cost. So the argument that the drug is in such short supply that people stockpiling it for possible use during a pandemic might cause a shortage of the drug now for use in seasonal flu patients is no longer valid. She can check this out for herself. Sure, if everyone tried to buy anything at the same time, there would be a shortage but that is not going to happen since we all know too well that only a small percentage of people are preparing for the pandemic.

In my essay on this, one of the really critical points made is that Tamiflu must be started within 48 hours of the beginning of symptoms for it to be efficacious. During pandemic conditions, with patients crowding hospital ERs and doctor’s offices overflowing, the chances of even getting in to see the doctor are slim to none. If you were given a Tamiflu prescription, you would probably then have to find a pharmacy that had it in stock. At the very least there would be long lines their too. It is my understanding, that should the pandemic arrive, the federal government would take possession of all the Tamiflu in drug distribution warehouses and all future factory production and add it to the nation’s strategic stockpile. They plan to distribute the Tamiflu to the state health departments for redistribution to county health departments and thence to patients. I am very leery of their ability to accomplish this task well.

As a practical matter, it seems to me that given pandemic conditions, the only logical way to ensure that a patient with influenza begins their treatment within 48 hour of the onset of symptoms is if they already have a supply of the drug on hand before they become ill. This requires having a stockpile and is one of the best arguments for allowing patients to obtain one.

Some doctors are reluctant to write these drugs because they think that their patient would not know how to use them properly. This is a valid concern and is one of the reasons I have devoted so much space to this in the Bird Flu Manual. I have also placed the official US FDA approved Package Circular for each of these drugs on the www.BirdFluManual.com website in the Resources section under Influenza Drugs. These are in PDF format and available for downloading. In my opinion, people who care concerned enough to prepare for a pandemic are the last people to waste their precious drug stockpile or use it inappropriately.

The other arguments commonly heard relate to improper use that encourages Tamiflu-resistant influenza and ineffective use due to taking too little drug for not enough time. I deal with both these issues in the essay.

The Noah’s Ark Parallel is an idea that has been rummaging around my mind lately. It applies indirectly to the stockpile issue and is one answer to why you deserve to be granted the privilege to obtain a drug stockpile. Pandemic-aware people can be viewed in some respects as future passengers on the modern-day equivalent of Noah’s Ark.

As we recall, Noah took animals “two by two” into the ark with which he would re-populate the world after the flood. What Noah did was really smart. He took intact families that became the seed stock for the future. The information about the pandemic is open source. You don’t need to know any secret handshakes or be a member of Skull and Bones to have access to this information. The folks seeking passage in this ark have selected themselves rather than being picked by Noah. Who is buying passage on this ark and whom are they buying tickets for? The pandemic-prepared are obtaining passage for their family and friends, just like Noah did before the flood.

Families that make it through the pandemic intact and in good physical and mental shape will be the seed stock for the recovery that will follow the pandemic. A great deal of work will be required to help straighten out our world and who best to do so but the members of stable healthy families. Since there is no Noah at work today, we have both the right and responsibility to humankind to make this choice for ourselves.

Since society as a whole treats the pandemic pretty causally, taking very few if any steps to prepare, it seems to me that if a small sub-set of the populations wishes the become well prepared, it would be in the best interest of all for society to support their efforts. If not outright support, then society should not stand in their way or obstruct their efforts. To the extent that a physician’s refusal to prescribe these medications to their patient prevents them from fully preparing for the pandemic, this act constitutes obstruction. If the action is based upon a decision of medical community as a whole as in Yale’s case, then to the extent that doctors represent their community it constitutes an obstruction sanctioned by society. This is an unwise policy to follow in my view since it is likely to result in harm to the patient that could be avoided if the doctors supported the efforts of pandemic preparers instead of discouraging them.

As I have said in other threads, be patient with your doctor. Don’t give up on them. Try not to argue with them about it because if you push them into a corner, it will only take them longer to come around. Be nice. Give them a small gift during the holidays. Pay your bills promptly (all doctors are very grateful for this). Ask nicely. Eventually, they will see the light. Have on had the list and quantity of drugs you want. Once they agree to prescribe meds for you to stockpile, show them the list and see what they say. They may well have other suggestions for you than the ones in my book. Follow their advice. They know your needs better than anyone else.

I really can’t think of any rational reason not to prescribe the drugs recommended in the Flu Treatment Kit to patients for stockpiling. Some doctors are even refusing to prescribe a 6-month supply of medication they themselves have prescribed for patients to stockpile for treatment of the high blood pressure or diabetes. This is completely unjustified. Of course, if the doctor wrote the prescription, the insurance company would not cover the cost. This would be OK if the drug was a generic and reasonably priced but buying a 6-month stockpile of most brand named drugs would not be affordable for many patients.

Good luck,

Grattan Woodson, MD, FACP

LizBat 01:13

I’m not all that interested in tamiflu for pan-flu, because of the probability resistence willhave developed by the time pan-flu gets to this part of the world. But having had a nasty flu last year, I’m interested in tamiflu for the regular flu season. And seems to me if it’s supposed to be taken within 48 hours, given that doctor offices are closed on weekends and holidays, one needs the drug or at least the prescription on hand ahead of time in case of needing it over a weekend or thanksgiving or other winter holiday (or when traveling).

If friday night is when you should start taking it, you can’t wait ‘til Monday to get the script even if the doc would be able to give you an appointment the same day you call for one!

jplanner – at 02:11

Thanks for clarity above De Jure et all about precisely which book was being discussed.

My Harvard Doc (Pixie I think we have the same situation in Boston as you do with Yale med) has same attitude. I got glared at by my doc, and was told in an icy tone that there was no medical necessity for Tamiflu script or pneumovax. She talked about how if people horded, others wouldn’t get it when they were sick. There seemed to be an undercurrent that it would be selfish for me to have a script. I bet it was the same reasoning your doc had.

I am so sorry Pixie that your pediatrician can;t see the light, if it were kids, my kids, I would be even more incensed.

Funny, I go to a public health clinic which has many uninsured people, immigrants, low income people. Excellent docs and near my house. But you’d think if they prescribed Tamiflu there they’d be evening out the score some.

I might try a “doc in the box” to get a tamiflu script. My friends sister in law is an MD and she hasn’t gotten the guts up to ask her to write one for her kids. Next time, for them, the doc is over I will purposely bring up the conversation.. She just finished her boards so has not been paying attention to outside world and is ignorant about threat of pandemic,but not resistant…at least that family, those kids will be taken care of.

For myself, I might try a “doc in the box” if I can find one…I wish I got sick. If I got a bad cold with a fever soon I could pretend it ‘s the flu (ache all over, cough wakes me out, my fevers down because I took ibuprofen) and get a script.

I feel so unsupported by my doctor, judged even, hard to “be patient’ with them as Doc WOodson, well meaningly, suggests. I hate feeling forced into deviousness. I do have one round of “tamiflu” from overseas pharmacy I got last year. I donm’t trust it and it probably isn’t enough. I must SIP alone (no chance for “flu servival group” or whatever it is called in the book. I think that might work better for people who have families or friends willing to prep. Or neighbors they know. Maybe bettter in the country or suburbs than in the city where people are transitory and you dont’ know your neighbors)so just can’t get sick. THere will be no one to take care of me and “recycle the tamiflu” from my body if I am incapacitated and can’t do it myself)

SOrry to digress. It is demorlizing to me to realize ..realistically…I dont’ have people to SIP with. I am sure reading all about that in the book will be distressing. As is the reality for the pandemic.

crfullmoon – at 03:22

(hi jplanner - gee, wonder why aren’t we asleep at these times of night…)

Pixie – at 04:43

Thanks Dr. Woodson. I very much like your analogy of Noah’s Ark, and as these physcians are getting a truer picture of what the unfolding of an actual pandemic would look like, perhaps your strategy in stressing the value to society of having at least a few people fully able, ready, and prepared, vs. all of us being equitably and terribly unprepared, is a very sound one philosophically, and I hope a sound one in practicality. For physcians like my pediatrician who feel they are setting a moral standard for the benefit of society overall, perhaps your points will have some influence.

I would, however, prefer to see Tamiflu in the hands of the parents of all the 1,600 children who are clients at this medical practice, rather than just a few. To stress the point about early vs. late Tamiflu treatment, I do plan to make up some kind of a summary of patient outcomes so far for those treated immediately vs. those who received anti-virals later. Recently, I came down with a bad case of strep on a Friday. It was 72 hours before I could get into any medical practice here for a swab and a prescription for antibiotics, and it is not flu season yet nor is there a pandemic in progress. At this point, if the pandemic begins tomorrow, there are no anti-viral stockpiles at our state level, and plans to obtain those stockpiles quickly and to distribute them are sketchy at best. I just do not see how the “moral” plan of waiting until the very last moment, and having everyone equitably all go down with the ship together, is a smart one.

Also, Dr. Woodson, while I am most concerned with the caretaking of children (the highest risk group) your Noah’s Ark analogy has given me an idea that can perhaps be used at the level of municipal town planning. Perhaps town leaders can be pursuaded to put their collective heads together to come up with the name of a local physcian who can be pursuaded to write advance prescriptions for the critical town workers who will be needed to keep things together during a pandemic. Having such a stockpile in hand may be a factor in motivating people to keep working, and keep helping, as the crisis unfolds. While they all typically give assurances that a strategic government stockpile will appear at some point, I don’t think many will be willing to bet their lives on it (they, more than anyone, understand how inefficient government is in reality).

Thanks again, Dr. Woodson.

24 October 2006

The Doctor – at 01:41

It has been very distressing for me to hear these stories from those who commented on this thread and elsewhere on the difficulty you are having getting your doctors to help you prepare.

In response, I am cooking up a “Dear Colleague” letter that makes the case for why doctors should help their patients prepare and what they can do.

My intent is that this will be something people can download and print out for their doctor to read. This happens all the time in our office and admittedly most of the time the material ends up in the garbage can. Understanding this reality, I will see if I can write something that will get their attention sufficiently to read the whole thing. Even if they do, it may not change their mind or be of any immediate help to their patients but you never know. It will take me a while to complete this so be patient.

Grattan Woodson, MD

jplanner – at 02:41

Thats nice of you Dr. Woodson, thanks.

ALot of my ire/distress is about the attitude. I will be changing PCP’s soon.

Average Concerned Mom – at 08:08

jplanner: I’ve been talking with people about the hoarding word as well; I’m sure this has come up on the Flu WIki before, but it was something I finally realized:

It isn’t “hording” until there is actually an emergency. If you buy or stockpile something before the emergency, you are taking the financial risk away from the company producing the item, and on to your self as the individual. And you are dong your part to encourage the manufacturer to increase production.

If my state or county has a plan to buy enough Tamiflu (or whatever) to be sure to cover the needs of the ENTIRE POPULATION, and currently is trying to lay in supplies, then I’ll stand back and let them have what supplies there are. IF they have a plan. Which they do NOT! Many states purposely did NOT put in an order for Tamilfu when given the opportuntily because they didn’t want to spend their money in that way. So be it.

The only way a physician could say buying Tamiflu was hoarding would be if she or he had certain knowledge that a pandemic was just about to begin.

31 October 2006

crfullmoon – at 09:19

Dear Colleague letter -sounds good -

would go well with the HHS Sec Leavitt “tragically wrong” quote when handed out. (And, the current cases/ages/CFR since too many seem to be avoiding finding out what those are…)

The Doctor – at 23:01

Don’t change doctors yet.

I am working on a suite of resources designed to help people that are interested in obtaining a stockpile of both regular drugs they use everyday for important medical disorders as well as a select few drugs that would be reserved for use during the pandemic.

This project is in the works and may be ready sometime next week. When it is, I start a new thread with an appropriate title. Most of the documents will be in PDF format on the www.BirdFluManual.com website where you can download them, print them out and give them to your doctor.

Grattan Woodson, MD

CrystalSkyat 23:55

Dr.Woodson, My doctor is in MN and when I asked what medications I needed to have if there was a pandemic, s/he agreed to give me scripts for antibiotics, cough medicine, Organidin and others…but said that s/he could not give me a script for Tamiflu because they had been ordered not to give it out, unless they could document the patient’s current symptoms. S/he would have had to falsify my medical records in order to give it to me.

I wonder if this is something specific to MN or are other states monitoring Tamiflu scripts and putting this kind of pressure on doctors.

01 November 2006

rph – at 00:14

please belive that there is no GRAND scheme to keep you from getting medicine. They will not give you any anti-virals without just cause. but they really don’t want to keep you from stocking up on your regular stuff. Believe me I’m with you. If insurance won’t pay for it….wait a few days. Still stockpile,,,and we will all come out further ahead,

05 November 2006

bump – at 11:15
Tomo – at 11:32

Dr. Woodson, if you’re out there…

There is a lot of info out there (oral rehydration solutions threads..) about using “no salt/low salt” alternatives in order to incorporate some potassium into the ORS. What are your thoughts on that? If yes, what ammount?

Thanks.

Bird Guano – at 12:09

CrystalSky – at 23:55

Dr.Woodson, My doctor is in MN and when I asked what medications I needed to have if there was a pandemic, s/he agreed to give me scripts for antibiotics, cough medicine, Organidin and others…but said that s/he could not give me a script for Tamiflu because they had been ordered not to give it out, unless they could document the patient’s current symptoms. S/he would have had to falsify my medical records in order to give it to me.

I wonder if this is something specific to MN or are other states monitoring Tamiflu scripts and putting this kind of pressure on doctors.


Nope, not unique.

California has the same restriction.

I’ve seen the state health department memo to physicians.

NO tamiflu unless symptomatic, and then only for high risk cases.

anonymous – at 13:03

I have a Rx. for 2 boxes per month with 12 refills from my oncologist. My problem is I will have to pay out of pocket (90.00) for more than one box per month. In our immediate family the are three families with small children. It would be a hardship but I could buy them.

 What would you do?
mom11 – at 19:18

Hi Anon at 13:03!

Could the families, chip in? Obviously if you are seeing an oncologist, you are dealing with health issues now. This should take precedence, over something that may not happen and for other families. It may be a hardship for these parents, but that is part of being a parent. Of course, then there ae those that wouldn’t buy the meds. no matter what. If these are your grown children and grandchildren, maybe you could ask them to buy it for your Christmas gift and save it for their own families. The peace of mind would probably be the best Christmas gift you could receive! Good luck! I hope you are well!

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Online Flu Conference CANCELLED Will Reschedule

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Online Flu Conference CANCELLED Will Reschedule

05 November 2006

Lisa the GP – at 14:51

I’ve lost access to the chatroom at CE, so the online ASTHO flu conference experiment for tonight has been cancelled.

An alternative means to achieve the same goal is TBD and will happen soon, so that the Keystone people can get the information promptly.

Watch the discussion forum for the new venue/instructions once I’ve figured out what to do.

anonymous – at 17:43

What you should have done is ask the owner of Current Events if you could use their resources.

I am sure with sufficient assurances they would have allowed it.

No, you had to go hog all of the glory for yourself in an attempt to restart your career as you have done trying to hijack the Flu Forum there.

Thanks for messing up a good thing.

Diogenes of Sinope – at 17:46

Yea, she is good at that.

Now she is spreading misperceptions about what transpired.

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 17:51

Since this really isn’t going anywhere, I’m closing this thread.

c3jmp – at 18:11

anonymous and diogenes…

jealosy and pride, then? there is no glory in facilitating the flow of information. worry about careers and glory if you want - those are fairly selfish concerns given what folks are trying to accomplish here. on the surface, that sounds more like a mistake made in haste at CE - and an opportunity lost. for what?

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Personal Pandemic Drill

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Personal Pandemic Drill

04 November 2006

Homesteader – at 08:53

My family is doing partial pre-pandemic test run for the next week. We have turned the heat off and are using the woodstove for heat before the weather gets any colder. Growing up my family depended on a woodstove and we put 8–10 cords through it per winter and cut the wood and split it with a maul and wedges. I think it is a good idea to get the kids mental adjustment going early so it isn’t as big a shock if/when the pandemic is on our doorstep.

Goju – at 09:54

8–10 cords? YIKES

HillBilly Bill – at 09:58

Homesteader – at 08:53

I keep my wood furnace going from the first of November through March each year. It takes a LOT of wood, and with all of the children gone from the nest DW and I do all of the hauling, splitting and stacking. We do have a natural gas furnace, but the wood furnace keeps it from running much unless it gets really cold. Also, we can keep the house warmer in the winter than we normally could aford.

Even with the wood furnace, I bought a back-up Mr. Buddy propane heater. One really can’t be too prepared.

Northstar – at 10:14

Hillbilly Bill: Where did you get your Mr. Buddy heater? I looked it up online and I like the looks of it. Have you tried it out? How long can you go on a 1 lb or 20 lb tank, do you know? The prices seem to vary widely online; are there different models or just different markups? (s)

Hubby is setting his heels against a wood stove and I can hardly blame him. It would mean a considerable investment and permanently altering our house. But a MI winter is pretty cold and we have small children; I’m concerned about how well we could do even with a tent inside. This heater might ease my mind and be a nice compromise.

PBQ – at 10:55

Northstar, I have a mister Buddy heater and they say in the brochere that it will run on low for 6 hours and on high for 3 hours on a 1 pound tank of propane. They also say it will heat up to 200 square feet. So unless you are standing in front of it don’t expect to get to warm. The last sentance is mine not theirs. I have not tried it out yet but expect to within the next couple of weeks. I have a 20 @ tank and 12 1 # tanks right now. If however, after we try it and are pleased we will purchase 4 or 5 more 20 # tanks just for that. We can get them here for 40 dollars apeice. While it is cheaper to buy a couple of larger tanks than the small ones, if I can’t move them then they are not useful to me. I can handle the 20 # ones but the larger ones are too heavy for me to lift. I am hoping to get a job within the next couple of months to save up for a wood stove for next winter. If I do that, then will have the propane for cooking.

As far as a pandemic drill we haven’t had one. I am however, old enoughg to remember having to go to the bathroom in an outhouse, having a wood stove for heat/cooking and taking a bath on Saturday afternoon in the side yard/kitchen depending on how old or cold you were. I think I can manage just fine except for this old body. Don’t want to put too much stress on it if I don’t have to.

LauraBat 13:27

We had a few unplanned ones (power outages ) and I learned a lot about what equipment worked (some things were old and either broken or useless), and more about cooking and how much water we blew through. I highly recommend EVERYONE do it, even if just for a weekend. Better to learn now vs in more stressful times.

blackbird – at 16:35

Not a full-out drill, but put out a kiddie wading pool to collect rainwater yesterday. Even with a little spillage from pouring the water out, there’s a good 5 gallons. Now for some cheesecloth to strain it.

This stuff is different whan you actually do it, than when you’re just planning to do it, as you said, Laura.

HillBilly Bill – at 18:39

Northstar – at 10:14

I got mine from Northern Tool, they had it on sale for $65 a few weeks ago. The figures they quaote are exactly what PBQ said. Not something to heat the whole house, but you could keep one room warm in a dire situation.

blackbird – at 16:35 “This stuff is different whan you actually do it, than when you’re just planning to do it.” Truer words were never spoken!

HillBilly Bill – at 18:41

Goju – at 09:54 “8–10 cords? YIKES!”

I hauled two more truckloads of wood today. Thank goodness I get it at a great price.

Homesteader – at 18:48

My family home was a big old New England Farmhouse that had never seen the first roll of insulation that I know of. It had the original chestnut clapboards on it still. The old oil furnace didn’t make it to the second floor where the bedrooms were. I can still recall the weight of all the blankets topped off with a quilt. It was way before the days of $2000 Vermont Castings and the fancy Catalytic wheely dealies. Just a big old fireplace and a big old wood stove of some sort and a big pile of Maple, Oak, and Hickory to pound through all summer and fall, Ugh! My brother was always a way better wood splitter than me, maybe him being 3 years older helped :)

I was splitting wood today with my son and explaining when to use wedges, maul, big axe and small axe and how to select the wood to be spit for kindling. He said “I guess its getting a little more interesting”. I had to laugh. I told him “if the power goes out it will go from interesting to vital. . .so get good at it”.

HillBilly Bill – at 18:54

Homesteader – at 18:48

My grandad spent a lot of time showing me that knowing which tool to use, and where to put it on the log is much more important than brute force when splitting wood. As an old contractor around here told me once, when you are cutting boards by hand you think a lot more before you do anything else.

madamspinner – at 22:05

I cooked my dinner on a tiny alcohol burner tonight…has a smell, but not unlike the lanterns. It would work in a pinch.

 The trick to these is use as thin a pan/pot as you can find, and a lid to condense the heat.  Boiled 3 cups of water in 16 minutes using a heavier pan then I wanted….thin pan on list now. 

 Tomorrow, I have plans to fire up the coleman stove and 2 lanterns I have….camp fuel….to make sure they don’t need any repairs.  Does anyone know if the coleman stoves that run on Camp Fuel can be run inside the house ?  This didn’t come with a booklet, and my memory has let me down on this question…….

I snagged a newer propane Northwoods stove for my mom on Ebay today; 20 bucks including shipping and she can use it in her house without burning the place down………

Doing lamp light tonight; with the exception of this time on the computer.

Word to the wise: Do test runs NOW on all your Machanical things….and allow for about TWICE the time; as on modern gizmos.

Don’t forget LOTS of good potholders and burn gel for the accidents !

seacoast – at 22:18

Madamspinner - We have a Coleman stove and you have to use it outside. I think most of their equiptment is designed for camping outside.

05 November 2006

tjclaw1 – at 00:02

madamspinner – at 22:05 “Don’t forget LOTS of good potholders and burn gel for the accidents ! “

May I suggest getting some professional silicone mits? I was canning last month and my cloth mitts got wet. I then picked up a 400 degree skillet of cornbread out of the oven and got 1st and 2nd degree burns on my fingers and palm. VERY painful and required a visit to the ER. You have to get a tetanus shot for burns, so a good idea to have one now if you haven’t had one in a while. Putting ointment on the burn stops the pain - it is when the air hits it that it hurts. I was given a special burn gel and pads to put under the dressing. Put extras in my preps.

blackbird – at 00:09

Ouch! This prepping work can be dangerous. Thanks for the reminder, tjclaw1 and madamspinner.

Prepping Gal – at 17:16

I use the silicone mitts but find it still gets hot on the thumb. I would also recommend those big barbecue mitts because they are longer up the arm and when cooking over a fireplace, firepit etc you may need them. I did when practicing on my outdoor wood/charcoal oven. Saved me from lots of burns.

Jane – at 17:22

I got the long “professional” silicone mitts from Sam’s Club in the restaurant supply section. They look long enough to almost reach my elbow (they’re still in the package, though.) They are reinforced in the gripping area, the package says.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 17:35

I used welding gloves the only time I’ve ever had to cook in the fireplace—covered up my arms & kept me from singeing my arm hair! I’m scared of burns!

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 17:36

Oh, I also have leather pot holders for my cast iron cookware.

NEMO – at 17:46

There is a type of glove that I purchased in the housewares section of Walmart that may be of interest. It looks like a knit beige glove, about two or three satiny thicknesses, that is safe up to 480 degrees. They are about $15 for one glove. It’s great when I am working around super hot embers in the wood stove or have a particularly heavy load in the cast iron skillet that I need to work with. No chance of a finger slipping off the pad and getting burned like in the past and it makes tasks like moving the oven shelf (after it’s already hot) much safer and easier. These may be a modified form of welder’s glove, very cool! (bad pun!)

Jane – at 17:58

Just don’t use it for pots with hot liquids-it might slosh over and go through the knit, and it would be even more painful to peel off the glove. (I’m imagining this-I haven’t used my single glove yet.)

Goju – at 18:49

Fireplace gloves - heavy - cover almost up to the elbow - can pick up a burning log.

Did I mention I can juggle? ARRGGHHH

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Info on Melanie

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Info on Melanie

03 October 2006

inthehills – at 17:00

just read on another blog of melanie’s current state of affairs. seems as if those of us who frequent this site could pony up a few bucks for the cause. how about the price of 25 lb.bag of rice? mods,could you please post a sterile mailing address?

Urdar-Norge – at 17:16

i think there was a paypal donate button somewere… maybe on some of the motherblogs..

Elder Berry – at 17:18

Can you give a link or an explanation here, please?

Urdar-Norge – at 17:19
Elder Berry – at 17:23

“regarding Melanie” - I should have added at the end of my post.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 17:24

You’re welcome to use the money I sent awhile back for fluwikie for any use needed to help any moderators — that is as long as it arrived at the POBox I sent it to that I’d found here — would someone confirm that address was correct before I mail more funds, which I’d like to do???

Urdar-Norge – at 17:36

cant find the donate button, heard about it, never seen it, think it should be made one. a looooot of work done here for free…..

seacoast – at 17:40

What is going on?

anonymous – at 17:41

What is Melanie’s current “state of affairs”. What’s “the cause”?

gharris – at 17:49

This was posted on her Bump in The Beltway this a.m. - October 03, 2006 The Insurance Tangle My health situation has gotten more complicated as I am now fighting both depression and anxiety in additition to some sort of serious gastro-intestinal bug. All of my very limited energy has gone into the hunt for insurance that will cover at least some of these conditions. I’m still around, but don’t have the concentration right now to be contributing as often as I did before.

Chesapeake – at 17:51

http://tinyurl.com/qjund Bump in the Beltway

Wolf – at 21:08

I know depression, anxiety and effing gastrointestinal distress all too well. (STILL no insurance >sigh<) We’ve had our differences, but all the best, Melanie. Be well.

2beans – at 21:23

DemfmCt:

Does she have an email address to which contents aren’t posted to the web?

DemFromCTat 21:33

She can be reached at her blog email at Bump, where she posted. And as she posted, she’s not checking it frequently.

The sentiments and good wishes are sincerely appreciated (and I will relay them) but I don’t know if it’s really a proper topic of discussion here. We are a community in the Forum, but as always the balance between privacy and community is a tricky one. That’s especially true when she’s not around to answer.

For that reason, and if i don’t hear from her, we may wind up closing this thread in a bit.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 21:35

I wonder….is it still OK to distribute the public announcements to newspapers, etc. with her contact info on it or would she prefer the responses go to one of the others of you?

Green Mom – at 21:38

I do understand about the balance between privacy and community. I would still like to relay my best wishes and thoughts in regard to Melanie. I have thought about her often and wondered how she is-I miss her here on the forum and just really hope she feels better soon.

DemFromCTat 21:41

No, at the moment, the contact stays as is. But that’s a thought.

Arkie – at 21:43

Well, we were worried about her, I had read her entries on the “Beltway” blog concerning her illness, and she has not been around here later. We are just caring about a friend. Send best wishes, and when she feels better she can let us know she does. Until then, here’s hoping for rapid recovery!

inthehills – at 21:55

there was an notice placed on the other blog that included pay-pal. i’ll post a link if the mod’s approve,but i’ll bow to the privacy issue. it seemed a rather compelling request. close the thread if appropriate. the other blog has a large readership,so i assumed this was public knowledge.apologies if boundries were crossed.

TRay75at 22:08

My best to Melanie and hopes that she can find the help she needs from whatever means they may come. Dealing with the awesome scope of a pandemic threat and having to the courage to raise to action a tool such as Flu Wiki in deference to that threat was and continues to be a rare courage and compassion for humanity. Thank you, Melanie.

EnoughAlreadyat 22:46

My heart goes out to her. We’ve battle a nasty gastro-intestinal bug and a nasty respiratory “bug” for a month now. It’s going around here (my area) like crazy. About the time you think you’re getting over it… somebody else gets it or relapses. The biggest thing is it drains and zaps energy out of you. We were able to get medication. Even with that, deductibles have been taxing on the pocketbook. Medication relieved symptoms but didn’t “cure” the problem.

Prayers and thoughts are with Melanie!

DemFromCTat 22:53

inthehills – at 21:55

Chesapeake posted the link above.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 23:00

If you use paypal, you can write a note on the form, and someone needs to remind her to check & pull funds down to her account — it’s not an automatic deposit into her bank, she has to transger it.

Arkie – at 23:26

Anyway, sending love, Melanie, and let us know if we can do anything to help… ripple@mv.tel.net

04 October 2006

inthehills – at 11:44

demfromct@22:53.it was another blog entirely. another prominent philly blogger. cheers

diana – at 12:01

Gastrointestinal woes here in Jersey also. Know someone who was hospitalized over the weekend. All my best and warmest regards. Hope Melanies health improves, but it seems that people here are recovering slowly. Take care.

06 October 2006

seacoast – at 07:47

You are in our thoughts and prayers. I’ll hold you in the light….

05 November 2006

Lisa the GP – at 15:32

I had a serious gi bug about a month ago. It lasts 3 days, plus fatigue after that. Stay hydrated. It won’t last long.

The mood issues are another matter. You have my sympathy for both the chronic and the acute problems.

Lisa the GP – at 15:33

oh, swell, misread the month. nevermind…

FloridaGirlat 16:28

Lisa… The month doesn’t matter, she has been ill a while.

See her blog… http://www.beltwaybump.com

3 posts in a month.. (I think we wore her out!)

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / 5 At CE Chatroom

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: 5 At CE Chatroom

04 November 2006

Lisa the GP – at 21:13

The ASTHO topic here doesn’t appear to be read much, and I think its my fault for giving it a less than catchy name.

If you wanted to go to one of the Keystone/ASTHO conferences to gather community thoughts about whether various proposed infection control measures will be practicable, this is an experimental opportunity to do so online.

Details are in the existing ASTHO thread here in the discussion topics.

These conferences are designed to gather public input that the Keystone organization will be providing to the Bush administration toward formulating national flu policy. The online format is an experiment that Keystone is aware of and which was mentioned at the Seattle meeting today (though they said ‘fluwiki’ instead of CurEvents).

So far the face-to-face meetings have been held in Atlanta and Seattle. Syracuse NY and Lincoln NE are the remaining scheduled live meetings.

Keystone needs to submit its guidance by December. I hope people will come participate and thereby support both the public input aspect and use of the web as a means to get public input.

Lisa the GP – at 21:14

damnit, what happened to my title? AAARRRRGGGHHH!

Bronco Bill – at 21:51

Lisa the GP – at 21:14 --- What should your title have said?

05 November 2006

Lisa the GP – at 14:26

Doesn’t matter, Bill, I’ve had to cancel this event because I lost use of the chatroom. Will re-do the concept in a different format here on the wiki once I’ve figured out the best non-chat format for it.

anon – at 14:41

you didn’t cancel this event. You were cancelled and banned because you are a trouble maker.

talk about spin.

lifeisgreat – at 14:54

I’ve contacted Keystone about attending in Lincoln, NE and cannot get them to respond. Since I’m not a mind reader, I simply have not known has to interpret this lack of response.

Lisa the GP – at 14:57

Anon—talk about troublemakers. :sigh: Do the world a favor and save the wheedling for posts at CE. Personal attacks do nothing for the wiki.

Lifeisgreat—they are hard to get a hold of. You have to keep trying. Did they provide a link to the local health department that is hosting the event? You may have better luck with the local contact.

DemFromCTat 14:58
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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / ASTHO Community Input Conferences

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: ASTHO Community Input Conferences

03 November 2006

Lisa the GP – at 15:12

The Association of State and Territorial Health Officials and the Keystone Center has been holding a series of public meetings in four cities in the US to get input regarding the practicality of public health measures that might be used during an outbreak of pandemic flu.

Here’s the site about those meetings: http://www.keystone.org/Public_Policy/pandemic_control.html

Several of us at CurEvents were disappointed that attending those meetings wasn’t logistically possible for us. So as an experiment, this Sunday 11/5 we’re going to have a chat session in the CE chatroom at 7 pm Pacific time (10 Eastern) trying to adhere to the meeting format and using the meeting scenario and questions. If the experiment is successful (that is, if people show up) then I’ll be emailing the chat log to a contact at Keystone.

This is an opportunity to possibly have some input into US health policy decisions, and also to test the idea of using the internet for public health to get input from the public. You don’t have to live in the US to participate.

The pertinent threads at CE are:

http://www.curevents.com/vb/showthread.php?t=61130 and http://www.curevents.com/vb/showthread.php?t=62087

You have to be a CE member to use the chat feature, but there is no charge for membership and no spam comes of it.

I’ll be in the chat room tonight (11/3) at 7 pm PST to help anyone who is unfamiliar with the chat feature at CE, so that using the feature is not an issue the night of the discussion.

Mac users—I find that the chatroom doesn’t talk well to my aging version of Safari, suggest using IE or another non-safari browser if you have any problems.

online conference 11/5 – at 21:14

bump

04 November 2006

online conference 115 – at 21:04

bump

05 November 2006

Lisa the GP – at 14:29

This event has been cancelled because I lost access to the chat room. I will try to arrange a different way for people who cannot go to these conferences in ‘realspace’ to participate in the data gathering online.

anon – at 14:40

you lost access because you were banned. rofl

DemFromCTat 14:58
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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Online Flu Conference SUNDAY

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Online Flu Conference SUNDAY

Online Conference CANCELLED

04 November 2006

Lisa the GP – at 21:19

The ASTHO topic here doesn’t appear to be read much, and I think its my fault for giving it a less than catchy name.

If you wanted to go to one of the Keystone/ASTHO conferences to gather community thoughts about whether various proposed infection control measures will be practicable, this is an experimental opportunity to do so online.

Details on how to participate in the conference at CE are in the existing ASTHO thread here in the discussion topics.

These conferences are designed to gather public input that the Keystone organization will be providing to the Bush administration toward formulating national flu policy. The online format is a grassroots experiment that Keystone ‘blessed’ last Friday and which was mentioned at the Seattle meeting today (though they said ‘fluwiki’ instead of CurEvents). They will be accepting the chat log from the online meeting to see if the input is helpful and if the format looks promising for future public input sessions.

So far the face-to-face meetings have been held in Atlanta and Seattle. Syracuse NY and Lincoln NE are the remaining scheduled live meetings.

Keystone needs to submit its guidance by December. I hope people will come participate and thereby support both the public input aspect and use of the web as a means to get public input.

my apologies for this duplicate post, the first time I tried to post this with a catchier title than ‘astho conference’, my title was eaten by a grue.

Lisa the GP – at 21:20

PS: the meeting is at CE because the wiki has no chatroom.

FloridaGirlat 21:52

LOL… That happens at my house also…. What time is the chat?

Anonymous – at 22:07

Lisa the GP, I would like to ask. Did you attend one of the face to face conferences? If so, what was your impression? Were they really looking for answers? or are they just looking for a why to soothe the public?

I ask because the answers are out there, if the Bush administration really wants to help. If the administration is just wanting to know a few specifics that he can address in this time of political anxiety. Well….

I think a big fix would be the health care intrastructure. This includes Public Health and hospitals. If this adminstration thinks that hospitals can continue functioning efficiently by cutting Medicare payments, requiring hospitals to use resources to comply with “pay for performance” and allow medical malpractice and insurance denials to continue, then we may not need a pandemic for the health care system to fail.

So, Unless Bush and his administration, have some card up their sleeve or they are going to commit substancial dollars to get everything fixed. I have little hope that this exchange will do anything more than be a little note of accomplishment on a piece of paper.

I have extremely little faith in this administration. I know politics are taboo here… I just really get frustrated when I see one more example of inepitude. Jeez… Michael Levitt has certainly told him what is needed. Olsterholm has given testimony in front of congress as well as Julie Gerberding. The transcripts are there to read….

FloridaGirlat 23:03

Lisa,

In light of the post above, I had a thought… In the event that I do not make the chat tomorrow night, please bring up this:

If the government wants prepareness compliance, then they will have to committ to “foot the bill” for medicare and medicaid prescriptions. Very clearly, the Pandemic plan spelled out to stock up on medications. (As well as multiple other reliable organizations.) This is something I believe has been changed in the plan.

The government is under contact with the American people for Medicare and Medicaid. If the government sets the standard then they can also require Insurance Companies to “foot the bill”.

This is one area that Congress or the Bush administration will have to own up to. You cannot make recommendations, be the responsible party…. and then just change the rules, because you do not want to pay for it.

The goverment has the responsibility to protect the citizens. By denying them the opportunity to comply with recommendations they themselves set. Would that not set them up for lawsuits?

Of course, you would have to be rich to sue….. :)

Edna Mode – at 23:14

Lisa the GP, Please post directions here for how to access the chat room. You will get a better response if you post directions here ASAP. You’ll also give people a chance to register at CE if they aren’t already registered there. That’s a prerequisite to participate in the chat rooms, right?

Goju – at 23:47

I cannot chat in CE

05 November 2006

anon – at 13:06

chat cancelled due to the banning of Lisa at CE. Seems she once again waaaaay overstepped her bounds.

Lisa the GP – at 14:47

Yes. Way over bounds. I got in an argument with Arubi in the dungeon and she threatened to send out personal information about me to others in private correspondence. Since she doesn’t actually have any personal information about me, I don’t know what kind of stuff she might be making up to send in such notes, but I certainly don’t want a bunch of fictions floating around as if they must be fact because they came from a moderator.

After discussing the matter with offline friends who are members there, the un-admitted reason for the ban seems to be that a0 was okay with talking about the ASTHO materials on Sunday so long as it had no official connections; once ASTHO became interested in it he didn’t want CE potentially involved or gaining official attention he didn’t want.

He has long been disgruntled that the flu clinic has come to dominate his site, which he intended and intends as a *general* news discussion board. My guess is that he just didn’t want the potential scrutiny—didn’t want to wind up on anyone’s ‘radar’.

The chat IS cancelled. However I will make alternate arrangements, eithe via chat or by a message-board system, so that people who cannot go to the regional conferences can still have input before Keystone finishes its data-gathering.

CE members may be interested to know that I did not violate any of CE written constitution. The argument with Arubi started and stayed in the dungeon.

I think it says bad things about Arubi that she’s tried to keep a file on people of bad things that she can say about them or personal information she can disclose; what she said about me, other than the fact I’m not practicing, is incorrect confabulation based on a few scraps of information that she has pieced together wrongly, and including some ‘data’ that isn’t even mine in the first place.

DemFromCTat 14:55

We are not in the least interested in that aspect of things. What happens at CE stays at CE as far as personal interactions go.

I will close the thread and leave the info. Post again if there are specific plans.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Ham Sat Communication in a Pandemic

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Ham Sat Communication in a Pandemic

30 October 2006

Bird Guano – at 17:47

A useful primer for long-range satellite communication in a pandemic with minimal equipment.

http://homepage.mac.com/clintbradford/FileSharing1.html

Dennis in Colorado – at 18:42

Ah, doggone it, BG. Now I’m going to have to buy a dual-band hand-held rig, too…

Dinkers – at 21:47

Dennis and BG — Ive been trying to research an affordable ham radio rig that we could use for local communications, and maybe pull in info from beyond the region (new England). Would appreciate your advice on gear, etc. or point me to another thread where this has already been laid out. Many thanks. Over n out.

Dennis in Colorado – at 22:04

Dinkers,
I do not have extensive experience with a wide variety of ham radio gear and I do not currently subscribe to any amateur radio journals. My own rig is an ICOM 706 Mk II, capable of running a modest 100 watts on all HF bands (those generally used for long distance communication) and 20–50 watts on the VHF and UHF bands (those generally used for shorter distance communications). It operates on 12 volts. A full listing of the features may be found HERE. I purchased it, used, five years ago and had it mounted in my Suburban for several years, using it while traveling.

Others here (there are many licensed amateurs here) may have more options for you to consider. One suggestion is to go to a large bookstore and get the latest issue of the “QST” magazine and peruse the advertisements and reviews.

31 October 2006

Surfer – at 06:50

DIC, BG, and others

Need some help here, if you can. Due to the terrain around my house (50 acres in the mountains), I am relocating my VHF antenna and Dish Network dish to a location away from the house that will be completely free of obstructions (trees and ridges) and hopefully will provide the best reception possible. I have surveyed the location, and essentially will be building an antenna farm. My plan is to have a Ham antenna, CB antenna, VHF antenna, Dish Network Sat Dish, and Direct TV Sat Dish located on the site. May even relocate my wireless internet antenna there. The conduit is being put in place now. It is 2″ gray standard issue electrical pvc. The site is about 800′ from the house (through a draw, over a creek, and up a hill).

Quick and dirty, what type of cables will I need to cover that distance for each system? Can I “share” cables between systems (i.e., use one cable for ham and C.B. to be either manually switched or shared via diplexers)? If I run the cables in the same conduit, will there be interference between the systems? Any tips? Thanx.

Dennis in Colorado – at 13:28

Surfer – at 06:50

The short answer is that 800 feet is a very long run for any antenna feed line.
The long answer is that the actual loss will depend greatly on the operating frequency and the type of feed line used. Run “ham radio antenna coax db loss” through your favorite search engine and check the charts that are available.
If you prefer a calculator rather than a chart, then see
http://www.timesmicrowave.com/cgi-bin/calculate.pl

Fiddlerdave – at 14:34

Surfer, I was looking at a place where antennas would be a long way from the house. For my satellite internet and cable, I was looking at actually converting the data and video using a computer located at the distant antenna farm onto a gig ethernet data line, and using repeaters or special long haul ethernet drivers (or wireless network with repeaters) to network the local computer to the house network. This approach is getting cheaper as new products hit the market, but is still not simple (and I didn’t do it, gratefully, so I can’t tell you much). But for the different types of signals, coax and wire does have significant limitations so doing everything local to the antennas means you get one cable across. The antenna farm computer can be used with computer digitally tuned ham equipment and “remote-desktop” controlled from your house. Use x10-like software to run the infrared remote control signals over the network to operate your cable boxes, and on and on. So, you need a powered small shed at the antenna farm (you would spend some time there), possible repeater or 2 in the middle of your cable run, overall expensive and not real practical (I only did feature looks - experts in each area of video and ham) would have to tell you if these things actually work), but suitably crazy if you have plenty of money and time on your hands. A company that does smart houses probably would be good to talk to or home automation web info.

Surfer – at 15:27

Thanx DIC and FD. I’ll check it out.

LMWatBullRunat 16:33

My suggestion is that you consider constructing a small radio shack at the antenna farm location and run power to it. You will likely get much better performance at lower cost than trying to run large coax that distance. Even the largest coax I am familiar with loses over 1 db per 100′ and an 8 db loss for 800′ is not tolerable. Well made twin lead might do better but that is still a long way to go. A small CMU blockhouse should be relatively cheap……

Dinkers – at 17:27

Many thanks for the recommendation on the ICOM unit. I am thinking ham radio might be a very good way to pull in information near and far in the event of a pandemic smack down. Does anyone know of any group of ham operators who are up to speed on pandemic preps and setting up networks to relay messages, share local observations, etc.??

JV – at 18:10

Dinkers -

I wish I was more knowledgeable about all of this, but I do know that ARES and RACES operate during emergencies. Here is a quote from the link below (from ARRL web page): “ARES is activated before, during and after an emergency. Generally, ARES handles all emergency messages, including those between government emergency management officials. RACES, on the other hand, almost never starts before an emergency and is active only during the emergency and during the immediate aftermath if government emergency management offices need communications support. RACES is normally shut down shortly after the emergency has cleared.”

http://tinyurl.com/yycw9p

For an ARRL club search in your area, you can use the following link to find out: http://tinyurl.com/asl92

You can either call ARRL (# will be on their web site) or your local club for information. They will both probably be quite helpful.

Surfer – at 21:00

LMW and Others

I has told by a DirecTv technician(on-site visit a few weeks ago)that an RG11 cable could easily handle an 800′ distance from the house to a Directv satellite dish. Is he blowing smoke?

Dennis in Colorado – at 21:31

Surfer – at 21:00
I’m not trying to be cute … but it depends on what he meant by “easily” and “handle.”
I have no personal experience with RG-11 coax. I have only used RG-8 and RG-58. The first chart I checked showed that regular RG-11 has a loss of 1.35 db per 100 feet (at 27 Mhz). 1.35 x 8 = 10.8 db loss. That means you end up with ~1/10th of the signal at the other end. Will it handle the signal? Yes. If you run 100 watts into the feedline at your house and get 10 watts delivered to the antenna, will you be satisfied with that? I don’t know. If the DirecTV tech made a flat statement that RG-11 would easily handle an 800-foot run, without asking on the frequency being used, the power level you intend to operate at, or any other elements of the equation, is he blowing smoke? Yeah, I think so.

Bump - Bronco Bill – at 21:31

01 November 2006

Eccles – at 08:24

Surfer - I second DIC’s statements, the guy was blowing smoke, and that’s probably because “Larry the Cable Guy” (sorry) doesn’t really understand what happens in cables over distance. As Dennis has been teaching, the longer a run of coax you have, the more signal you lose. But, the signal is NEVER completely gone, so, in one sense, the cable guy is right, RG-8 “can handle” the distance. On the other hand, can the equipment in your living room “handle” the signal that finally crawls along to the cable and reaches it.

Dennis introduced the term dB (decibel). For this discussion, 1 dB represents the ratio of power coming out of a piece of cable versus the power that went in. With a 1 dB loss per foot, that means that you will get about 78% of the power out of a 1 foot run the cable that you put in. dB work in exponential math, so that adding dB means that you multiply the 78 percents. Thus, a 2dB loss represents that you get 78 percent of 78 percent of the power. Thus, while with a 1 dB loss you get 78% of the power out, with 3 dB you only get 1/2 of the power, and with 6 dB you get 1/4 and with 9 dB you get 1/8. A 10 dB loss means you have lost 90% of the power.

Now lets look at the example being discussed above again. Let us assume you are using RG-58 coax, like one can get a Radio Shack. Since we are linking a TV signal back from the DISH, let’s assume we are using channel 3, as things get worse the higher in frequency one goes. The loss of RG-58 at TV channel 3 will be 3.3 dB per 100 feet. Thus, an 800 foot run would incur a loss of 26 dB. Now, since every 10 dB loses us 90%, and we have 20 dB, that is a loss of 99%, multipled by the 6 dB loss which costs us another 75%. Thus, you get 1/4 of 1% of the signal out of the cable that went in.

So, if the DISH put out a signal 400 times stronger than your TV needs, it would work fine after 800 feet. Of course, at close range that would fry the tuner in the TV, so I can guarantee that it doesn’t work that way. So, the cable guy is just blowing smoke. Because he’s never actually tried to run a signal over coax that long.

Now then, there are better coax choices than RG-58. If we used RG-8X instead, its loss is only 2.2 dB per hundred feet at that frequency. In that case, the total loss would be about 18 dB. Following through the calculations, that leaves us with a signal which is about 1–1/4 percent of the original or about 1/75. That’s getting better, as that means we only need to make up 75 times the original power, not the 400 of the RG-58 case.

Continuing up through the realm of Coax cables, as we get to larger, more sophisticated and more expensive cables, we can find better loss numbers. Cable type CNT-240, which is getting to be a thick, heavy expensive piece of cable shows a loss of 1.7 dB per 100 feet at channel 3. This gets us down to a loss of about 13 dB, which would mean that we are now getting 1/20th of our original signal, which is much, much better than RG-58, but still not the best. This coax costs about $0.75 per foot.

At this point, it becomes possible to stick an appropriate amplifier at about the 400 foot point to insure adequate signal reaching the receiver. Such amplifiers are made in in-line cylindrical forms which can be fed power directly through the same coax that it is sending the signal over.

Now, if we get to the realm of specialty microwave cables, one can use Time Microwaves type LMR-400 cable ( at a couple of bucks per foot) and get a loss of about 0.9 dB per 100 feet. This would give us a loss of about 7.2 dB for the run, which means about 1/5 of the original signal makes it through.

Unfortunately, this kind of coax is large enough so that you would only get 3 or 4 runs of it in a single conduit. Also, realize that every connector that is placed into the run will add 1/4 to 1/2 dB of additional loss.

So remoting antennas is a task that requires more than just running longer and longer wires to reach the distant site. An aditional concernt that I have is that such a long run of coax will make you very susceptible to static spike damage from nearby lightning. 800 feet of coax braid makes a dandy antenna for such stuff.

I ap[ologize for not having jumped in earlier, but I haven’t been on FW much for the past few weks due to work issues. But if you would like, we can explore the best ways to get a signal from a remote site to your home. (And if you are seeking to transmit, then it gets more complex. The Radio shack that the guys have recommended becomes more and more necessary).

Dinkers – at 21:10

Eccles, nice to have you back on the wiki! Did not know you are knowledgable in radio, etc., so will ask advice for gear that would make a good base ham radio setup to listen, and to communicate with others in a pandemic. I’m thinking ham operators will be up and running in many places, and can network to spread critical information around. I am hoping to establish a connection with one or more operators in the Bay Area of CA; my daughter is out there, and 3000 miles is a weight on my heart. I am just beginning to work toward a license, but should not have trouble as I have a ham operator friend to push me along. See other comments above. Thanks!

04 November 2006

Surfer – at 22:22

Eccles Thanx for the info. Per above posted advice from Fiddler, DIC, BG, and yourself, I will continue in my efforts to construct an antenna farm.

My objective in the energy / communication aspect of H5N1 crisis is to (1) be energy self-sufficient (combination of grid, hydro, wind, generator) and (2) be able to figger out what is happening “outside” via com systems when all this stuff happens. It will.

Number one is damn near done. Coupla tweaks, and I am set. Number two is still puzzling, however, much of it has been accomplished.

My plan is this - Have: 1. Have regular telephone service, 2. cell phones via different service providers (Cingular and Verizon) in case one or the other goes down at any given time, 3. a sat phone (last resort backup telephone communication source), 4. Ham radio, 5. C.B. radio, 6. T.V. reception via VHF, 7. T.V. reception via both Dish Network and DirectTV, 8. Hand held Scanners that will pick up transmissions from numerous sources, 9. AM/FM radios, 10. internet access via regular telephone line (no dsl or cable access up here), 11. internet access via wireless transmission towers, 12. internet access via satellite. Did I miss anything…besides the ship to shore radio?

My problem is I still have an 800′ run to the antenna farm (over the hill and through the woods), where most of the hard wired items will be located. Yes, I can build a cinder block shack. Yes, I can run 120V power to it. But by building that, how do I get the signals down to the huose - 800′ away?All previous suggestions have been good, but I’m just a Marine. I need a xplenation

Bird Guano – at 23:02

Forget the 800 ft coax runs.

It’s unworkable unless you use hardline, and even then it’s not worth the effort or expense.

Look into remote bases for the HF and VHF ham gear. Control them wirelessly.

I run remote bases (including a Uniden digital scanner) on a hilltop at 1800ft above MSL using a version of echolink and a wireless private LAN for the ham gear, and Butel software for the scanner (remote control and audio).

As for internet, you can always run wireless down from the hill to your house using a patch antenna and an amplifier, and a couple of wireless bridges.

I don’t think the Sat TV will do well with that long of a run either, unless you use one heck of a preamp along the way. I haven’t played with sat tv that much.

Better, and cheaper, to build a radio blockhouse on your hill, and go visit it for the heavy duty monitoring.

Bird Guano – at 23:23

For emergency communications I suggest the following:

The ICOM rig mentioned a good PACTOR modem Laptop w/ car charger VX7r portable (dual band) w/ software outband mod Dual band Yaesu or Icom mobile w/ outband mod Digital capable remote control public safety scanner Antennas as appropriate for your area.

Services:

Salvation Army’s SATERN HF network for health and welfare traffic

http://www.satern.org/

PACTOR (email and BBS over HF)

http://www.airmail2000.com/pprimer.htm

http://www.scs-ptc.com/

http://www.scs-ptc.com/wm/wm.html

Near Vertical Instance Skywave HF for regional comms of around 100 miles

http://www.tactical-link.com/field_deployed_nvis.htm

Surfer – at 23:28

B.G.

thanx,I guess I almost get it. But, I don’t want to sit in a blockhouse on the hill in order to monitor transmissions. I want all of the stuff delivered to my house.

Where can I get patch antennas and repeaters?

Bird Guano – at 23:38

Cisco bridges if you have the $$$

I get a lot of my wireless stuff here: http://www.hyperlinktech.com

We run a mesh network out here in the semi-boonies, with a feed from the “big city” over a long-haul wireless link.

Looks something like this high speed 6 gig down, 1 gig up, DSL line in city….. up to mountain top via 5.8ghz link to one guy’s house…. down to coast on the other side of the mountain with a 5.8gig link to my house, to a 2.4 gig mesh network in the neighborhood.

Also allows us to run our own private IP range on the LAN for stuff like remote cameras, alarm monitoring, sharing huge files, and controlling remote radios and the scanner too.

One of the bored engineers who hit it in the dot com era designed and runs the system. We all contribute $$$ as a coop to keep it running and replace equipment as technology changes. He owns the house on the hill.

05 November 2006

Fiddlerdave – at 02:10

Man, that’s a hot setup, Bird! And I bet your dot com friend has excellant power generation ability for backup. At least you will be able to communicate with each other when TSHTF!

Surfer – at 07:13

B.G. Just now got your last 2 posts. I will add your links to my collection. Thanx. Any idea where I can find someone to design and install a system? Power supply is NOT a problem. I’ve got grid power. If that goes down, I’ve got a 15 kw diesel gen with a 1,000 gal. fully stocked fuel tank, solar array (it’s a biggin - about 2600 watts), and hydro to power my battery bank. I just wan’t to access com. I want a steady source of information when this happens. When it happens, I don’t want to be treated like a mushroom - you know, kept in the dark and fed - uh - bird guano (no offense). Suggestions, any of you knowledgeable folks out there?

LMWatBullRunat 08:18

Wow. Wasn’t thinking about remote operation but it is allowed by the regs. Cost for remote operation is going to be high, but it can be done. That is way outside my experience and budget, however. <grin> I thought I was being daring by suggesting a remote ham shack!

Bird Guano – at 10:43

Thanks, that’s only the partial setup, but the backbone of it.

There are several other outlets in case something goes down. It’s bidirectional.

Backup includes Satellite Internet at obviously reduced speed, and he even runs a VOip pbx with Inmarsat as an automatic failover backup.

So if TSHTF I can still make a phone call, but at $10 a minute.. ouch.

I dare say our outbuilding of a volunteer fire station is probably better equipped for outside ocmmunication in a disaster than the county Ops center.

LOL

Bird Guano – at 10:45

LMWatBullRun – at 08:18

Wow. Wasn’t thinking about remote operation but it is allowed by the regs. Cost for remote operation is going to be high, but it can be done. That is way outside my experience and budget, however. <grin> I thought I was being daring by suggesting a remote ham shack!


Actually it doesn’t have to be high at all.

Minimal computer equipment for remote control, and some $50 RoIP interfaces for the audio part are all you need.

Let me dig up some links for my equipment and software and post them in a couple of hours.

Bird Guano – at 12:22

Internet Radio Linking Project. Can also be used on a private LAN. Single board Linux computers are cheap.

http://www.eham.net/newham/irlp

Bird Guano – at 12:25

Scanner over IP information

http://www.butel.nl/soip/index.html

Bird Guano – at 12:30

This is the $50 thingy I use for remote audio , but it looks like they no longer manufacture it.

http://www.ultimatefrs.com/dingotel.html

I use a couple of these along with computer remote control for tuning, etc.

Bird Guano – at 12:33

Nevermind, found them at Cabelas

http://tinyurl.com/yxqs9g

Down to $40 now

Bird Guano – at 12:45

Butel has a single feed license for $50 to remote a Uniden scanner.

http://www.butel.nl/products/audio/index.html

Surfer – at 13:13

B.G. at 12:33

System looks good. It’s affordable, and I will get it. I don’t know nothin about ham/sat com, so I’m goin back to my earlier kwestion: Any ideas where can I find someone that can install all this stuff? Your gouge has been good, but I need someone to install my entire “com system”. I don’t have the time, but I will spend the bucks.

Bird Guano – at 14:24

Commercial two way radio shops in your area.

Home automation installers.

Those are my two suggestions.

I have no idea what resources you have in your area.

I would stay away from “Larry the cable guy” however.

You can’t afford my hourly $$ rate or airfare… LOL

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Page last modified on November 05, 2006, at 02:24 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / CDC Orders Human H 5 N 1 Vaccine

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: CDC Orders Human H 5 N 1 Vaccine

03 November 2006

Bird Guano – at 10:05

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/tai…1/03/2003334581

Posted under Fair Use because this WILL definitely result in a discussion for academic purposes.

CDC places order for H5N1 vaccine STAFF WRITER, WITH CNA Friday, Nov 03, 2006

The Center for Disease Control (CDC) has ordered 190,000 doses of avian influenza vaccine

 to enhance the nation’s flu-fighting capability amid renewed pandemic 

warnings, a senior official said yesterday.

According to CDC Deputy Director Chou Chih-hao, the government decided

 to procure the vaccine from two foreign suppliers after a new resistant
 strain of the highly pathogenic H5N1 virus deadly to humans and poultry 

was found to have spread through Asia.

Chou quoted a report by scientists in Hong Kong and the US as saying that the new virus — dubbed the “Fujian-like” strain — may have mutated in response to vaccination programs designed to h alt the disease in farm flocks.

Noting that the strain emerged last year and has already spread throughout China as well as to Hong Kong, Thailand, Laos and Malaysia, the report said that the spread of this virus over such a large geographical region within a short period of time directly challenges current disease control measures.

Against this backdrop, Chou said the CDC has spent nearly

 NT$60 million (US$1.81 million) purchasing 190,000 doses

of the vaccine against the H5N1 virus from two foreign companies.

The vaccine is 70 percent to 80 percent effective and has a shelf life of between six months and two years, Chou said.

Nevertheless, Chou added that although the vaccine has been proven safe and effective in preventing avian influenza in humans in initial clinical tests, it has not yet been approved for commercial sale.

Therefore, Chou said, the vaccine will be stockpiled for emergency epidemic control use or domestic clinical testing.

“Basically, only frontline medical and epidemic control personnel will get vaccinated,” Chou said, adding that the vaccine will not be available to members of the public.

According to the procurement contracts, Chou said, the vaccine will be delivered by the end of this year.

“The vaccine will be ready for use if an avian flu outbreak occurs this winter,” he said.

If each medical professional gets two doses of the vaccine, Chou said, the stockpile will be enough to cover 90,000 individuals, or one-third of the country’s health care personnel.

Moreover, Chou said, the CDC has also kept in stock enough doses of Tamiflu — an oral anti-viral drug for treatment of influenza

 — for 2.3 million people, or 10 percent of the nation’s population 

in accordance with the recommendation of the WHO

Bird Guano – at 10:07

So it’s unclear to me if this is the Taiwanese CDC, or the US CDC.

I’m trying to find additional articles to clarify.

Either way, my take-away from this article is:

a very real possibility of TSHTF, and Soon.

uk bird – at 10:13

All the articles referring to Chou Chih-hao are from Taiwan.

janetn – at 12:03

Im confused. Didnt WHO just come out and say that prebuying vaccine wasnt a good idea??? Could someone please clarify what strain this vaccine is being made from. It isnt the 2004 one is it? Sorry if Im being dense here.

Bird Guano – at 12:10

Janetn, you’re not being dense.

It’s a poorly written article.

I’m trying to find additional articles in other press that may clarify.

So far no luck, but it does look like the Taiwanese CDC.

anon_22 – at 12:20

It has to be Taiwan, look at the currency NT$60 million (US$1.81 million)

Bird Guano – at 12:40

Still significant that they are taking the initiative.

May want to change the thread title to reflect the Taiwan part, so people don’t freak out.

anon_22 – at 12:46

Do you want me to make a comment on the top post? Or you need to ask pogge to change the thread title.

Jane – at 12:46

They must be using the Fujian strain, since that’s the latest version and the one mentioned as the one that’s spreading.

Pixie – at 12:48

It looks like they are hoping this vaccine will offer some degree of protection to medical staff on the front lines:

“Basically, only frontline medical and epidemic control personnel will get vaccinated,” Chou said, adding that the vaccine will not be available to members of the public.

If so, I say go for it. It is worth a shot. We will have to offer the medical professionals who serve us the best protection we can possibly get. Even so, they note that this vaccine only cover 1/3 of Taiwan’s medical professionals.

It does look like they’ve gone right around the usual approval requirements for this one - I wonder if they could get away with doing that here? Maybe with an executive emergency order exempting the vaccine’s producers/dispensers from litigation?

Bronco Bill – at 12:59

I just hope that if the virus mutates again from the current version to something entirely different, and then a vaccine becomes available for the new virus, they don’t just say that they don’t have any more money to spend on the new vaccine.

Pixie – at 13:05

Bronco Bill - at 12:59

I think that was what Bird Guano was alluding to. If they’re poneying up for this vaccine now using cold hard cash, rather than waiting, there may be, in their minds, some compelling reason to do so.

It would definitely be preferable to wait till the last moment to get the best match to “the” pandemic virus strain (if, indeed, “it” is “one” strain). But then leaders risk the accusations that they waited too long, and it is too late.

We’ll be printing money for to cover a lot of problems caused by this pandemic. Vaccine manufacture seems as good a reason as any, and now seems as good a time to start as any (maybe a very good time). And, anyway, Dude keeps saying that we can just send him the bill. ;-)

TreasureIslandGalat 13:13

Taiwan is opting to spend a lot of money to secure this vaccine which really only has a shelf life to get it through this next season. After this season, even if the shelf life still has a little time left, the odds are that the virus will have migrated away from the vaccine having optimal effect to prevent the new form of the bird flu.

The fact they see this as so important to do THIS year that it is worth the investment makes me take notice.

I add to this action the information that came out some weeks ago that the Chinese were also wanting to vaccinate their population against a possible bird flu pandemic that they feel has a 20% likelihood of erupting THIS SEASON.

I think that a few countries are now looking at the serious possibility that it could happen this year, if not in the very near future. Money is starting to move beyond mere planning and into direct actions to mitigate the effects.

Add to this the fact the WHO now says it may remain just as deadly as we see now when it does go pandemic. That could put this pandemic into the realms of the great plagues of human history… the black death, the plague, etc.

In retrospect, we may WISH that it had been a mild pandemic like the flu of 1918.

Klatu – at 13:24

WHO issues startling bird flu report

11/3/2006

 KARE 11 News

“The World Health Organization has just completed a report that raises startling concerns about the so-called Bird Flu.

And in the new report, the WHO says if the virus becomes easily transmissible between people as a result of mutation,”.. then the present high lethality could be maintained during a pandemic.”

The report also raises concern about vaccine. It says, “Efforts to develop a vaccine that confers adequate protection have been greatly complicated by the emergence of … diverse viruses…”

The report adds “.. Decisions about which vaccines to stockpile may be premature.”

Infectious Disease expert Dr. Michael Osterholm says, “We have no evidence that these vaccines will protect, and on top of it, we just don’t have the production capability.” So even if an effective vaccine is created, it most likely can’t be manufactured fast enough to be distributed to all those who would need it.

http://www.kare11.com/news/health/health_article.aspx?storyid=138212

Bird Guano – at 13:41

TreasureIslandGal – at 13:13

Taiwan is opting to spend a lot of money to secure this vaccine which really only has a shelf life to get it through this next season. After this season, even if the shelf life still has a little time left, the odds are that the virus will have migrated away from the vaccine having optimal effect to prevent the new form of the bird flu.

The fact they see this as so important to do THIS year that it is worth the investment makes me take notice.


This is EXACTLY why I took notice.

It disturbed me enough to post it.

Also see the article I posted about California allowing (on a temporary emergency basis) the use of seasonal vaccines containing mercury in young children.

They see a compelling reason to do so NOW. This season.

I find that curious.

Perhaps so that if H5N1 does go pandemic, they can rule out seasonal flu more easily ?

TreasureIslandGalat 13:49

BG,

I think that California is doing that in the hopes that limited immunity may be gained. I believe that Asian countries are most concerned that H5N1 will coinfect with someone with H3N2, the flu that is running rampant in Japan, China, and Taiwan right now. It has been an early flu season over there, just like in some areas of the US this year. The current flu vaccine contains the H3N2. So in theory, if there is swap of genes between the two, the current vaccine may offer a little protection agaisnt the resultant mutant strain. Maybe not much, but it might be enough to save a life.

So, balancing that fact out with the low risk of the development of autism, they see this as more of a critical risk to protect against. Again, this fact shoudl raise eye brows too as to what the USA really is thinking right now too.

Pixie – at 13:54

Bird Guano -

A few weeks ago they announced that there might be some protection against H5N1 afforded by the seasonal flu vaccine. They announced this the same week that the pediatric vaccines were mysteriously and very sudenly delayed.

90% of the pediatric vaccines still have not turned up at pediatricians’ offices.

A child who is vaccinated on Dec. 1st will be afforded protection all the way out to June 15th, 2007.

The kids may not be well protected against the seasonal flu during the early winter, but they will be afforded whatever degree of protection the seasonal flu vax offers against H5N1 out to early summer. I don’t think that choice was made by accident.

(There is sufficient regular pediatric flu vax in every doctor’s office to vaccinate high risk pediatric patients - asthma, etc. - now, however).

Bird Guano – at 14:01

I don’t believe it was by accident either.

It immediately caught my attention.

I had my shot yesterday, and it was the first time the particular HMO was pushing pediatric flu shots in clinic, and I mean pushing them HARD.

The medical director was practically grabbing people passing by in the hallways to get them to go get a shot.

It was a night and day difference from last year when it was like pulling teeth to have my kid vaccinated for flu.

I believe the watch phrase is:

Watch what they DO, not what they SAY.

cottontop – at 14:33

Taiwan, U.S., doesn’t matter. Frankly I have more trust in the CDC than in WHO and that’s not saying much. I’m tired of watching WHO bounce back and forth on this, as if there is “powers that be” that they are trying to keep happy. In one day, I have read WHO say not to stockpile, that’s being extreme, and the other report issuing a startling bird flu report. Which way is it guys? Is there a pandemic on the horizon, or is this just hype, because from the chair I’m in, I see something coming at us, and there is no room for playing bouncey ball. Who, exactly, controls WHO?

anon_22 – at 14:49

I am not specifically addressing the Taiwan CDC’s decision but in general, there may be a case for keeping a small stockpile of pre-pandemic vaccine against the most current strain, despite short shelf-life and despite rapid mutations. Such stockpiles will need to be replenished whenever newer strains appear. But this will give each country the ability to rapidly vaccinate first responders at the very beginning of a pandemic, which will add significantly to their ability to maintain a stable infrastructure.

anon_22 – at 14:52

cottontop,

I believe the WHO’s warning against stockpiling is more in the context of countries who are announcing their intention to stockpile vaccines for the whole population. I absolutely agree with the WHO report (actually it wasn’t a WHO recommendation, technically, but recommendation from a meeting of a group of scientists organized by the WHO) that countries should not rush to do that, for the reason stated, but also because often this will be used by politicians as justification to not do anything else.

JR – at 17:05

Taiwan is also starting to fine doctors and hospitals for not reporting dengue illnesses to health authorities.

http://tinyurl.com/v9br2

04 November 2006

anonymous – at 01:15

sure, there is a good reason to keep a stockpile of any prepandemic vaccine which you can get. The question is how much and what does it cost.(~$20 per dose) The 190000 doses is not so much. Switzerland ordered 7.5 million doses, Singapore 4.4 million, France is close to ordering -well, 60 million ? All of the Vietnam/1203 strain, I think. I think, H5N1 vaccine for at least 4 strains should be commonly available for private stockpiling too.

anonymous – at 09:11

bump

Bird Guano – at 13:08

anonymous – at 01:15

sure, there is a good reason to keep a stockpile of any prepandemic vaccine which you can get. The question is how much and what does it cost.(~$20 per dose) The 190000 doses is not so much. Switzerland ordered 7.5 million doses, Singapore 4.4 million, France is close to ordering -well, 60 million ? All of the Vietnam/1203 strain, I think. I think, H5N1 vaccine for at least 4 strains should be commonly available for private stockpiling too.


I would think the cost would be trivial compared to outlays for other things in their budgets.

Especially if they are stockpiling only for first responders and HCW’s.

It should be an annual budget expense to replentish with whatever the newest vax is with the newest variants.

05 November 2006

Pixie – at 09:17

Bird Guano – at 14:01 I don’t believe it was by accident either.

Then the most practical, least cost, safest, and best single pandemic prevention & preparation policy they could do right now would be to begin a very loud and public push to get our kids vaccinated with the seasonal flu vaccine.

Whether that vax will help fight off pandemic H5N1 or an H5N1/seasonal reassortment or whether it may simply help to prevent a reassortment, they can do this now, if they choose.

But I’d like to see it done now, rather than to wait and see Gerberding ride in on her white horse in some dramatic attempt to save the day later. These are kids we are talking about here.

Pixie – at 09:20

anonymous - at 1:15:

What’s the status of vaccinating your country’s kids for the seasonal flu? And what’s the level of childhood vax for kids around the rest of Europe?

I’m all for the creation and purchase of possibly protective pandemic vaxes as CDC in Taiwan is doing for their healthcare workers. But if we have the option of offering protection to our kids using seasonal flu vax, is anyone out there taking this seriously and already doing it? Is Taiwan?

anonymous – at 09:44

Pixie, seasonal vaccine won’t help with H5N1. That little bit from N1 is very tiny. The possible reassortment unlikely happens in USA. They should add a H5-strain to the seasonal vax, IMO. But this was not yet available when the seasonal vax was made. Hopefully next year…

With a quick search about vaccination in Europe I found this:

1: Vaccine. 2006 Jan 30;24(5):622–8. Epub 2005 Aug 24. Links Influenza vaccination coverage and reasons to refrain among high-risk persons in four European countries.Kroneman M, van Essen GA, John Paget W. NIVEL, Netherlands Institute of Health Services Research, P.O. Box 1568, 3500 BN Utrecht, The Netherlands. m.kroneman@nivel.nl

This paper examines influenza vaccine coverage using a population base of an average of 2300 persons in each of four European countries (Germany, Spain, Poland and Sweden). The reasons for non-vaccination of those in the high-risk groups were explored by questionnaire. The vaccine coverage rate (VCR) for elderly ranged from 18% in Poland to 67% in Spain. The VCR for high-risk population under 65 was 10% in Poland, 13% in Sweden, 27% in Germany and 30% in Spain. The most important reasons mentioned for not being vaccinated were: perceived sufficient resistance to flu (33–42%) in all countries; financial barriers in Poland (25%), and not to qualify for the vaccination (30%) and forgetfulness (20%) in Germany. Receiving a personal invitation for the vaccination, results in higher coverage rates in all four countries. We think that future interventions could be directed towards: an information campaign with special attention to the high-risk groups due to disease; promotion of personal invitations; and, for Poland, solving financial barriers to vaccination.

PMID: 16169638 [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]

Pixie – at 10:22

Thanks anonymous. But any details on the coverage of the kids? What does it take for “qualification” for the vaccine in Germany? (They note 30% do not get it there as they are not qualified). I take it that during a usual flu year, the kids are not considered to be in the “high-risk” group?

anonymous – at 10:55

here are the German recommendations for seasonal vaccination
http://www.influenza.rki.de/agi
maybe they also have a statistics for children, I haven’t yet found it.


(auto-translation:)
Recommendations of the constant inoculation commission at the RKI standard inoculation: Persons over 60 years indication inoculation: Children, young people and adults with increased health endangerment due to a basic suffering - e.g. chronic lungs -, heart cycle -, liver and kidney diseases, diabetes and other metabolic diseases, Immundefizienz, HIV infection - as well as inhabitant of age or nursing homes vocational/indication inoculation: Persons with increased endangerment, e.g. medical personnel, persons in mechanisms with extensive public traffic as well as persons, those as possible source of infection for of them ungeimpfte risk persons to function can indication inoculation cared for: If epidemic diseases arise or due to epidemiological observations to be feared (according to the recommendations of the health authorities)

anonymous – at 11:23

I found it for Bavaria, season 2002/2003
15% of the population vaccinated
39% of those over 65 years were vaccinated
6% of those younger than 15 years were vaccinated


there was some recent discussion that more children should be vaccinated, since they are the main spreaders.

Pixie – at 11:36

Thanks anonymous.

Ok, so if only 6% of kids in a wealthy, educated, part of Europe such as Bavaria are customarily vaccinated with the seasonal flu vaccine, then I think it is logical to assume that there is probably not enough seasonal vaccine in the current Bavarian supply with which to vaccinate them with anyway should that ever be seen as a good idea in order to ameliorate the effects of pandemic flu (at least for this upcoming year).

Not enough seasonal vax for kids in Europe = WHO won’t move to recommend it then as a pandemic measure(most likely).

And that’s not even moving on to the “social justice” inequalities brought to light by WHO possibly recommending seasonal vax as protection to a broader audience made up of many countries that just can’t afford it now or ever, never mind their current actual supply of seasonal flu vax.

So, if seasonal flu vax is thought to have some measure of protection against pandemic flu for kids, and if seasonal flu vaccine should be urged to be used in kids for this reason, then the individual countries that have this vaccine in hand, and have enough of it to be able to offer a large number of kids this protection, have to make the decision to move ahead on their own and recommend that this be done because the WHO will never put that recommendation in place for them.

anonymous – at 12:11

no, they do have enough vax. Just that there is not much interest by the children and parents to get vaccinated. It’s not generally recommended to vaccinate kids, they are not a risk-group, they usually survive the flu and don’t get severe illness. Old people are more at risk. If some parents or kids do want to get vaccinated in Bavaria, they will probably have no problem to get it.

Bird Guano – at 12:15

However kids ARE a flu reservoir/mixing vessel during the season, so there also exists an argument to vaccinate them.

Grade schools are a petri dish with a playground.

Snowhound1 – at 12:24

A Question

If Taiwan is ordering 190,000 doses of avian influenza vaccine, which will be enough to cover 90,000 individuals, or one-third of the country’s health care personnel, which will include only front-line medical and epidemic control personnel…

It seems to be that they have done some math and considered that they would be able to offer a reasonable defense for continuing medical care in the event of a pandemic with these numbers or why would they bother? Since they are stating that the vaccine is only 70–80% effective, that means that they will be working with “front-line medical and epidemic control personnel” that would equal about 67,500 people out of the entire force of 270,000 people.

Does anyone know, in a best guess scenario, what the population numbers would be for front-line medical and epidemic control personnel say in the US or Europe? I am just trying to think of a best case scenario for front-liners, if they would have a vaccine that would offer some protection for 70–80% of this population…. In the U.S. for instance, what would be the number of courses of vaccine would be needed to inoculate 1/3 of this force? (What would be a guess to the total number of this group?) Is this number significant enough to even be enough to make a difference? How much vaccine would be needed to inoculate 1/3 of the U.S. number? Or Europe?

Bird Guano – at 12:50

Depends on how you define “front line”

Nurses, Physicians, Paramedics, Respiratory Technicians, Hospital Lab Workers, Janitors in the Vaccine plants, Ambulance personnel, first responders ????

anonymous – at 12:54

military(-doctors),police(-healthcare)

Snowhound1 – at 13:14

It sounds to me that they are talking about medical personnel and epidemic control personnel only…(excluding the military, police and support personnel), what kind of numbers would we be talking about? How many hospitals are there exactly in the U.S. and in Europe? What are the numbers for actual hands-on care-giving staff? (Doctors, nurses, anesthesiologists, etc?) Is there a number anywhere?

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Page last modified on November 05, 2006, at 01:14 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Ask Questions of the Moderators Here XVIII

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Ask Questions of the Moderators Here XVIII

04 November 2006

DemFromCTat 13:02

New thread, old one long. Older thread is here

uk bird – at 13:12

Mmm, let’s see. High fever, verbal diarrhoea, blood on the floor, racing heartbeats, rambling speech… I think the Fluwiki’s got BIRD FLU!

Goju – at 13:15

LOL

anon_22 – at 13:32

LOL here as well!

under the radar – at 13:34

KimT at 13:10 - “…We ARE trying to save the world or just our own neighborhoods. How many of us have walked away dejected, amazed that other people are not seeing what we so clearly see. …”

What we so clearly see? Save the world? Let us save ourselves.

http://tinyurl.com/y7nsne http://tinyurl.com/y8l72p http://tinyurl.com/y3qp7z

DemFromCTat 13:37

under the radar – at 13:34

Please, I know it’s important, but no politics here. I beg you. ;-(

OTOH, I know a site or two you can visit…

under the radar – at 13:39

DemFromCT at 13:37 - I know, sorry. Anyone who’s reading, the moderators are not responsible for anything posted on this site. :)

c3jmp – at 13:40

diana – at 13:05

anything sensitive. what is sensitive varies by who is interested. discussing that aspect in depth really is counter productive - enumerating what might trip a filter in cleartext has a bad way of tripping a filter if you’re right. my only point in posting is that it’s not necessarily about agreeing (or not) with the policy or politics - it’s about getting the information out to the most people. and posting the wrong text may have very bad effects for other people - because they may lose access to the site. i am American, and i value free speech - but there are other places to discuss those concerns, regardless how strongly i feel - a site that exists to disseminate and analyze information regarding an impending health threat is not among those places. if i vent here, and feel better personally - and it gets this site banned on a router - how many lives did i take?

diana – at 13:42

Very interesting. Byzantine almost.

enza – at 13:44

Yup, FW is ‘high hot and breathless’.

It’s maybe dengue?

KimTat 13:44

under the radar – at 13:34

Like I said. I am naive.

diana – at 13:46

You make it sound more like a music video on MTV.A bit like Shakira in “These Hips Don’t Lie”.

under the radar – at 14:09

By the way, my post was a warning, as a kindness to those who who may not be aware. Take it as you will. Am I afraid? Yes. So I will say no more about it. And I am most definitely not a tin foil hat head, in case you may wonder.

KimTat 14:10

under the radar – at 14:09

I was unaware—I’m posting this to my blog too. Thanks!!!

diana – at 14:25

I glanced at the site. Talking with someone. We were hashing over politics and other matters as he is much older than I. His remark. “It will only take one stroke of the pen to change the constitution.” While we shouldn’t discuss our politics here, to disreguard them is perilous. Thanks, under the radar.

under the radar – at 14:41

All true.

Bronco Bill – at 15:23

Wow!!

Watching in Texas – at 15:26

ditto

Scaredy Cat – at 15:47

So what is the reason for the censoring? Is it because, as anon_22 herself originally said:

It was deleted for inappropriate content.

Speculations about conspiracy theories concerning the Chinese government is the fastest one-way ticket to get this site banned for anyone trying to read it from inside their jurisdiction. Please keep comments on this forum non-emotive and non-conspiratorial.

or is it because talking openly about China somehow puts anon_22 or her family members at risk?

I’ve looked back over much of the preceding discussion, and unless I’ve missed something, the first mention of risk to anon_22 or her family was not made by anon_22 at all, but, later, by Anon_451 on Nov. 2 at 22:18 where he said:

…we must remember that at least one of our number must travel to the country in question from time to time and we may be placing her at risk for her personal safety.

And, as an aside, if this is the case, if open discussion here does place anon_22 or any of her loved ones at risk due to her role as Flu Wiki moderator, then I think that does constitute a conflict of interest, one which places a muzzle on the rest of us, thereby potentially contributing to a 1918-type situation where people are further endangered due to the lack of access to the truth.

Scaredy Cat – at 15:56

DemFromCT – at 11:24 -

Bird Guano

It isn’t just a concern for anon_22. it’s a larger question of where we want to positon Flu Wiki - partner, antagonist, somewhere in the middle. Not just for China, not just for the US, but for any govenment and also whether the ‘partner’ is the citizens of these countries. The answer may be that, fine, but we do what we do, with a disclaimer at the top that says “this is individual opinion only”.

Gosh, I would hope you would want Flu Wiki to remain (?) independent, neither partner, nor antagonist, not even somewhere in the middle. Just reporting and analying the facts (as best we can determine) to the best of our abilities. Something along the lines of investigative journalism (as Monotreme mentioned), going where the facts take us, not determining our route in advance.

Speedbump – at 15:56

I was hesitant to chime in, but I agree with Scardy Cat.

Unfortunate as it may be to Anon22, the rest of the world should not be censored because of her CHOICE to be a moderator here.

Clawdia – at 15:57

I’m confused.

mojo – at 16:01

I’ll throw in my opinion. I don’t think talking about conspiracy theories (esp without hard facts) re China will make one whit of difference on the progress of the virus or it’s effect on us. It may however, endanger some of our members and possibly cut off some avenues of info from lurkers in China if we have any. I am not willing to cut off my nose to spite my face. YMMV As far as the name of the flu, the media has already dubbed it “bird flu” and I have an idea that that has already stuck in peoples minds.

anon_22 – at 16:08

Scaredy Cat,

The reason that I posted for ‘deleting’ the thread was also a valid reason, but a secondary one. My initial choice was to cover the primary issue privately with Monotreme, with the email copied to other mods. There was not one moment when Monotreme did not know both reasons.

I had no wish to uncover all of my personal affairs online. I would have preferred that Monotreme debated this with me offline, to preserve my privacy. It didn’t happen. I was eventually pushed to say all those things here, far beyond what I normally would have wanted to do.

There are reasons why most people choose on this forum to not use their real names, As far as I know there are less than a handful who do. It is not an easy decision to make. I do not submit that the degree of my privacy or personal sacrifice needs to be judged by everyone. I would submit that it is sufficient to judge my actions by the consequences and the reasons now given.

anon_22 – at 16:11

Speedbump – at 15:56

May I respectfully ask that you read at least the lower 2/3 of the previous thread before you make a comment, if you haven’t done so already? If you have, then thank you for your comment.

anon_22 – at 16:12

Clawdia, if you are confused, see my 16:11 suggestion.

anon_22 – at 16:15

In addition, to preserve my privacy, since this discussion has gone through so much of my personal affairs, I reserve the right to take certain posts offline after a suitable timeframe.

Clawdia – at 16:17

Thanks - I’ve been catching up on my reading . . .

I’d been away for most of the past week - surprised to come back to FW and find turmoil here.

Scaredy Cat – at 16:24

anon_22 at 12:18 -

I believe it is possible to say everything that Monotreme is trying to say without accusations implying deliberate intent to harm, which is what the word ‘conspiracy’ means in the Chinese language. If this was a mistake of understanding, then I will respectfully ask you to use a different way of expressing your ideas.

Comment -

I don’t think Monotreme said or implied anything about “deliberate intent to harm.”

from Dictionary.com Unabridged (v 1.0.1)

con?spire?

1. to agree together, esp. secretly, to do something wrong, evil, or illegal: They conspired to kill the king.
2. to act or work together toward the same result or goal.
The above definition says nothing of intent to harm. While such an extra meaning may be implied in the Chinese language word for “conspiracy,” that is not the language spoken here, so should not be our concern.

I apologise for ‘deleting’ the thread on the day that it happened. I put the word ‘deleted’ in quotes because I did not delete it, I saved it so I could discuss it with the other mods. However, since the way to take a thread offline is to use the word ‘delete’ I used that word in the post as well without thinking it might be erroneous. I do again apologise.

Comment - Regardless of intention, the thread in question was, in fact, deleted. It was only initially resurrected (minus all of Monotreme’s and others’ comments) when I backtracked to the thread and posted a comment.

So perhaps I shouldn’t have ‘deleted’ the thread, maybe I should have just ‘closed’ it. Notice though that it is in the mod’s perogative to close or delete threads, but I concede that maybe I could have just closed it while waiting to consult with the other mods.

Comment - Or you could have left the thread open and simply added your comments and concerns.

anon_22 – at 12:31

Here’s the bottomline, for me, since we have arrived at this spot, which I was most reluctant to get to, publicly.

Someone writes up some conspiracy theory, and he’s ok cos he’s safe, and I have to take the heat.

Well, if that’s what comes with being a mod, it better be a conspiracy theory that I also believe in, cos I’m not willing to be martyr to someone else’s cause, thank you very much.

Comment - I think you are taking the heat here only because you summarily deleted his thread. If you had left it open, and added your comments, Monotreme would have had the opportunity to lay out his case, an opportunity lost due to the aforementioned action.

Scaredy Cat – at 16:28

anon_22 at 16:08 -

I had no wish to uncover all of my personal affairs online. I would have preferred that Monotreme debated this with me offline, to preserve my privacy. It didn’t happen. I was eventually pushed to say all those things here, far beyond what I normally would have wanted to do.

Excuse me, anon_22, but you were the one who brought up private matters first by discussing your e-mail exchange with Monotreme. I believe you implied he was inconsiderate, rude. Don’t want to take the time to find the exact quote right now. But I do know that at the time I thought it was very inappropriate for such a matter to be aired in this forum.

I think Monotreme was only responding to your accusations.

anon_22 – at 16:29

Scaredy Cat,

I have said all i want to say about ‘deleting’ the thread. You can speculate however way you want, it’s not going to change anything.

If Monotreme did not intend to imply any ‘deliberate intent to harm’, then its very simple. As I said, he is welcome to start another thread and re-phrase it so it won’t give that impression.

He knows that. I am still waiting to see if he chooses to do that.

Monotreme has been a valued contributor. Those of you who have been on this forum for a long time will recall all the different times when I have expressed complete confidence in his competence, intelligence and integrity. I have no wish to drive hime away. The problem is very straight-forward, so is the solution, and I will not repeat it here.

anon_22 – at 16:32

Scaredy Cat, by engaging in this ‘you said, he said’ approach, what are you trying to achieve? What are you trying to prove?

As a moderator, I am going to ask this one question, the bottomline is this:

I am asking that participants take due care when writing up certain topics. If you agree, we’re fine. If you do not, well, then there is nothing I can do about it.

You have not earned the right to judge my character, so quit it.

under the radar – at 17:06

Scaredy Cat, I know you mean well, but I can tell that you don’t have a full grasp of the situation.

Anon_22, if I were you I would not respond to any more postings about this matter, and I would already be busy deleting my posts.

anon_22 – at 17:08

under the radar – at 17:06

You’re right. I’ve covered everything that I want to cover, and I’m going to bed.

DennisCat 17:19

anon_22 – at 17:08 you may want to adjust your “profile”.

Scaredy Cat – at 17:24

anon_22 at 16:32 -

‘’Scaredy Cat, by engaging in this ‘you said, he said’ approach…”

Comment - I would really rather not engage in this “you said, he said” approach. But anon_22 brought her and Monotreme’s private e-mail conversations onto this thread, making them relevant for discussion.

I am asking that participants take due care when writing up certain topics.

Comment - Begging the question. Above statement assumes that participants are not taking “due care.” I don’t think that’s true at all (and who here would be assigned judge of someone else’s conscientiousness?).

As to what I am trying to achieve?

Well, two things motivate me to write this.

One, I am strongly opposed to the censorship. And, two, I’m trying to correct the distortions. My intention is not to insult anyone; I just want the record to reflect the truth.

Speedbump – at 17:27

Or just apologize for the heavy handedness and move on.

Jeeze.

Scaredy Cat – at 17:32

under the radar – at 17:06

Scaredy Cat, I know you mean well, but I can tell that you don’t have a full grasp of the situation.

You know, I keep thinking I’m done writing on this thread (embarrassed to admit I’m still in my pajamas). But then I read something like the above.

I don’t know if I do or do not have a “full” grasp of the situation. I guess I’d be just as likely to, though, as anyone else. Been reading FW threads for almost (or now over) a year.

But that doesn’t matter. Anyone here, no matter the education, no matter the background, no matter the time spent perusing Flu Wiki threads, has the utter right to post on any thread that they choose. I respect anon_22′s obvious intelligence, experience, eloquence. There is much to admire. However we are all equals here, different strengths yes, and every statement we make is open to challenge. As DemFromCT says (and I hope I am understanding him right) this is a feature of Flu Wiki, not a bug.

DemFromCTat 17:33

SC, you’ve been clear about your view of censorship. Since in a previous thread there was an apology for pulling it (though the right is reserved), and the thread was placed back in its entirety, please keep that in perspective.

There will be times the mods close threads. That’s not up for debate.

Gosh, I would hope you would want Flu Wiki to remain (?) independent, neither partner, nor antagonist, not even somewhere in the middle. Just reporting and analying the facts (as best we can determine) to the best of our abilities.

A middle course seems best, but I have no objections to partnering with anyone if it would save lives. I’d just have to be convinced (and convincing) that it would.

DemFromCTat 17:34

As DemFromCT says (and I hope I am understanding him right) this is a feature of Flu Wiki, not a bug.

You got that right. Exactly right, in fact. ;-)

Scaredy Cat – at 17:40

Dem,

Unless I have misinterpreted things, mods did not initially admit to pulling the thread (it was resurrected when I backtracked and then posted to it). But I do appreciate that you undeleted it. You did not re-open it however.

If you partner with anyone let us know, please. Then we can better judge the slant of the place.

Here’s to Flu Wiki’s best feature. ;-)

diana – at 17:54

SCAREDY CAT/ I too share a concern if threads are deleted. But going over and over the same territory isn’t going to change what has happened. Monetreme intends to start his own blog. If he returns to post or not is his choice. I don’t think much of playing fast and loose with a censors pen. If Anon 22 is concerned over her, safety while traveling, or her family in Hong Kong, she has her rational, but is hindered in her role. . It’s out in the open.Something has happened here that is important. You always will be a seeker of truth, yet it is time to let it pass. It isn’t up to us. The wiki shouldn’t carry this like some ball and chain. Its between two intelligent and valuable posters..

janetn – at 18:11

Isnt it time to move on. This has been discussed to death. I dont see any point in revisiting the same points over and over. People are just getting angry and this is all escalating again. Time to put this to bed, please!

DemFromCTat 18:24

i don’t see anyone getting angry or seeing it escalate, but I’m okay with moving on. ;-)

Bronco Bill – at 22:03

Disclaimer is good. Perhaps wording it with “We ask only that their be no political or religious posts, out of deference to all who visit.” between issues would be greatly appreciated. and ‘The complete Forum Rules are here’‘. Something along those lines…

Just a thought to add to the cacophony…

DemFromCTat 23:22

We’ll leave it as is for now. That’s a thought to consider, though.

05 November 2006

DemFromCTat 11:58

new thread, lest folks feel obligated to restrict questions to what’s on the page.

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.AskQuestionsOfTheModeratorsHereXVIII
Page last modified on November 05, 2006, at 11:58 AM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Look At This Garbage

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Look At This Garbage

11 September 2006

anonymous – at 23:42

Look at what this hack of a doctor is trying to sell. I hope no one buys this book and believes this crap. This so called doctor is going to look like a fool sooner than later.

read here

Np1 – at 23:47

Dr. Mercola is known for this sort of thing. He pushes a lot of “natural” products also. I believe he is a naturopath. Kelly

anonymous – at 23:49

How can he be so stupid to sell a book like this? Surely he knows he will be outcasted even by his followers once this thing hits. I honestly cannot believe that even HE believes what he is saying about BF. Does he not follow the human deaths?

EnoughAlreadyat 23:52

Slay giants… ????

well, anyway, besides being full of a bunch of “doctors”… there sure are a lot of “bonuses.” sheesh. Thought I’d never get to the end of that page. Sadly, I expect to see a lot of this kind of snake oil selling before this is all over with… from both sides of the fence.

12 September 2006

LA Escapee – at 00:07

Interesting that he emphasizes the NY Times Bestseller List so much. The whole point of buying the book seems to be to get it on the list, not to read it. Probably he gets some kind of financial bonus from his publisher.

pfwag – at 01:02

I heard a radio interview of Dr Mercola on one of those morning health shows a few weeks ago. While I believe he offers a lot of good information on many subjects not often covered by the mainstream press, I believe he has gone over the edge on BF. From the way he was talking, I suspect it may have something to do with his animosity to Bush. That seems to be almost a disease that causes a deficiet of reasoning ability in many that have it.

anonymous – at 09:02

I agree he seems to have a beef with Bush. On his website he says bird flu benefits Rumsfeld. Whether or not you like the US government, they did not make up the bird flu. If people buy into this book, that is bad! I guess they will die in the pandemic by starvation or dehydration. I think it was irresponsible for a “doctor” to put this book out when he has no proof bird flu is a hoax!

beehiver – at 10:13

In the past I have agreed with a number of things Mercola had to say about the pharma companies, and other topics. But I am very, very disappointed with him about this book. While there may be some valid reasoning in the book about the deceptions and/or failures in the American health care system (I have not read the book yet!)…WHY he decided to call the bird flu a HOAX in the title, is totally beyond my comprehension. That fact, coupled with the way he is pushing this book, seems very disturbing.

My dictionary defines the word “hoax” as a trick or a fraud, esp. one meant as a practical joke. Bird flu and particularly H5N1 is not any of that, it is an act of nature.

Mercola currently has a huge following in the alternative health community. I sincerely hope they are smarter than to be deceived by the title of this book…and led into a mindset that such an act of nature is not possible or is not happening, even as we speak. Indifference to this issue could end up being harmful or even deadly to a lot of good people that look to him (and often with good reason!) for information on alternative health methodologies. I will be interested to see if he teaches any scientific information at all, about how easily and quickly the influenza virus can change character. Those are long-proven facts not to be ignored by anyone, whether inside or outside of alternative health.

beehiver – at 10:21

Np1 at 23:47,

Thanks, it’s my understanding that Dr. Mercola is actually an osteopath. Someone please correct me if I am wrong.

I fear this book may have another effect - that of putting those interested in “alternative” methodologies in a bad light. This is unfortunate, especially if there are some alternative methods (possibly in combination with standard allopathic methods) that help to shield us from this virus.

Brooks – at 10:24

I do know a number of altmed folks who are wedded to Mercola’s blusterings about this. It’s a shame. None of them are people who follow bird flu info closely, so it is easier to deceive them.

Np1 – at 10:26

Dr. Mercola is a quack. He has a track record of this sort of thing. Kelly http://tinyurl.com/3soww

beehiver – at 11:01

Brooks at 10:24, yes it’s quite sad. I also know people that are looking at this new book - people I care about, and I’ve received numerous emails from them about the book. I could only be honest with them how I feel about this current H5N1 problem, trying to reason with them using some factual information.

Mercola’s website is now said to be the #1 “natural health” website, see http://www.mercola.com/forms/rankings.htm.

And, his e-newsletter which goes out twice a week has a circulation of 700,000 (http://www.mercola.com/blog says Over 700,000 people, including 25,000 health care professionals, receive the newsletter twice a week, and 6 million pages are viewed every month to help people find the answers to their health care questions.). He has been pushing the book in every email for several weeks now.

But what additionally bothers me is the title, and the fact that this book will be sitting in bookstores with THAT TITLE and the word HOAX glaring at the general public, even if they don’t buy the book. It’s a “subtle programming” concern.

I would invite any professionals in the field to submit their respectful thoughts, with concise back-up information, as to why Mercola’s HOAX assessment is not accurate in any way.

Brooks – at 11:06

Well, most people won’t prepare until the pandemic is upon us anyway. I think where it is more likely to make a difference is in long-range community or corporate planning. They should generally have more information available to them than the public would.

CurEvents has done some good point-by-point critiques of Mercola’s (or similar) message.

anonymous – at 11:15

“think of it as evolution in action!”

beehiver – at 11:24

Let me say it another way, and then I will stop my comments.

I believe the presence of Mercola’s title with the word HOAX on the nation’s bookshelves, is a large if not potentially huge setback for the efforts of many of us trying to urge people to prepare…scientists, people on forums especially the fluwikie, even people in government and business that are ramping up their preparedness efforts.

For that reason we need respectfully delivered, concise hard information from other professionals why the title is off-base. Many, many people agree with Mercola that the medical system is corrupted to some degree or another. But that’s not the issue at this point in time. Unfortunately, Mercola has mixed these two major issues (bird flu and medical system) in a way that may be difficult for the general public to separate, so additional light needs to be shed on differentiating between these issues.

A person in my county that is spearheading local preparedness meetings and efforts, has also received phone calls about this book, and contacted me for my opinion. This is not a small issue that has surfaced, it needs a response as soon as possible. Just my honest opinion.

anonymous – at 11:53

beehiver at 11:24- I agree. While Mercola may be credible on some things, I think he has gone overboard with this book. And in the link I provided, he actually says “there is no pandemic coming”. How can he know that? He can’t. And it’s irresponsible for someone in hs position to say such things. I have been begging my family to prep and take this seriously. Now when they see this book at the store, they will take it as fact. Lot’s of people do. As much as some may dislike Bush, he did not create a bird flu hoax. Sheesh. And he sure is pushing hard for this book to get into the top 10. Wouldn’t that be sad?

beehiver – at 12:04

Brooks at 11:06. If you are able to include a link what has been been posted at CurEvents about Mercola’s book, that would help to pull some thoughts together.

anonymous at 11:53. Thanks for passing along your thoughts about your family & prepping. This is exactly my concern, that people will become complacent on this issue or go backwards.

H5N1 was around long before Bush, even before his father was up and running.

Brooks – at 13:41

beehiver, here are a couple of threads from CurEvents:

http://www.curevents.com/vb/showthread.php?t=47836

http://www.curevents.com/vb/showthread.php?t=45744

anonymous – at 15:43

I wonder if Dr Mercola is aware of all the Indonesia human deaths. His book was likely completed before the recent deaths.

03 November 2006

michaelgreger – at 11:49

On the thread “Great Bird Flu Hoax” I just posted a copy of the comments I sent to the publisher and the Mercola’s co-author’s response to my criticism. oOrry the post is a little sloppy—still learning the text formatting!

05 November 2006

michaelgreger – at 10:25

I slo started a new thread on Dr. Tenpenny’s bird flu “hype” book if people are interested in reading about another pandemic threat denier’s work.

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.LookAtThisGarbage
Page last modified on November 05, 2006, at 10:25 AM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Great Bird Flu Hoax

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Great Bird Flu Hoax

30 October 2006

JT – at 13:53

I was talking to a close relative about the need to prep when she said I heard this was all a big hoax! I read it in a book by a DR Joseph Mercola- book is titled “ The Great Bird Flu Hoax- The truth they don’t want you to know about the next big Pandemic” websire www.mercola.com Anyone read this book?

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 14:02

Nothing at that link…….look it up on Amazon & read the reviews on it.

anonymous – at 14:05

The search site on this web site took me to google even though I had highlighted Dr. Mercola. I put in pandemic bird flu .

pogge – at 14:06

We had a thread early last month about Dr. Mercola. The person who started it wasn’t too impressed — the thread is called Look At This Garbage. It’s still open.

JT – at 14:11

Found a site at www.greatbirdfluhoax.com

Fiddlerdave – at 14:45

Many governments wish it was a hoax! They sure keep saying they have stopped it…until it pops up again.

cottontop – at 15:03

I found a similar book, called Bird Flu Hype www.birdfluhype.com

some of you have already checked this out at my request. I will state again, that I have no strong opinion on this one way or the other. This person felt the need to write a book, (don’t they all), and have their say.

JWB – at 15:26

I guess the cat is out of the bag. Yes, this is a hoax. I have enjoyed creating the ‘News’ sites in Indonesia and watching to see how long it takes for you guys to find them. I never dreamt that the translations would convert back to be so funny sometimes!

It was just a big production/experiment that we here (NSA) decide to run to test some theories and software. You have all been more than helpful. Thanks. You can now return to your regular programming.

cottontop – at 15:35

JWB- geeze..

Well there you have it folks. We can all pack up our preps and return to our normal living life.

JWB – at 15:43

I almost forgot. You all will be receiving form BF-X17-PRF, (Bird Flu Experiment rev 17, Participant Reimbursement Form) in the mail. Please attach all related reciepts. Note - stamp not provided on return envelope. Please allow 4 to 6 weeks for processing.

Thanks again.

Watching in Texas – at 15:44

My DH has suggested that we buy that book. It will give us something to read while we SIP:)

WIT and Mr. WIT

cottontop – at 16:02

We’re all fluwikis turned comdeians! And we should quite our day jobs.

03 November 2006

michaelgreger – at 11:45

I was approached by the publisher of Mercola’s book with a co-promotion offer. I declined. This is what I wrote to them as to my reasoning:

There are little things, common mistakes that people outside the field

make, such as a confusing of the terms infectiousness, virulence, and pathogenicity.

There are also more serious errors of fact. For example, page four

describes “speculation that there may have been three possible instances of transmission from poultry workers to family members,” whereas the official government inquiry reportedly found 33 cases of such transmission [Enserink M. 2004. Bird flu infected 1,000, Dutch researchers say. Science 306:590--see attached PDF]. Another quick example—Relenza is not given by injection (p. 106), but is rather an inhaled powder. I am hoping that this draft was in the prefact-checking stage and that these errors have already been caught).

There are (presumed) misattributions. For example, page 67, the World

Health Organization is quoted, but that seems to have been gleaned from some secondarily cited source. The original (also attached) shows that those are the reporters words, not a direct quote. Hopefully these errors can all be cleared up before the final printing.

The critically faulty assertion, though, in my opinion, is one of the

minor theses (put bluntly on page 79) that H5N1 “will never be a pandemic.” Virtually everyone in the field (and we’re not just talking those beholden to industry—I’m talking the World Health Organization, the United Nations, the Office International des Epizooties, etc) believes that we simply don’t understand the biology well enough to make such a statement. We simply don’t know if H5N1 has the capacity to mutate into a form capable of efficient, sustained, human to human transmission and thereby spark a pandemic.

As I read that in the beginning of the book, it was such a bold

assertion that countered all of the science I had read that I couldn’t wait to get to the chapter where this was explained. Such a strong statement requires strong evidence, yet I was shocked to find that no such chapter existed. In fact, the best I was able to find (please correct me if I’m wrong) was like 2 pages—17 and 18--arguing that somehow improvements in the safety of the U.S. water supply somehow decreases the risk of a flu pandemic, which makes no sense to me. The flu isn’t like cholera, it’s not a water sanitation disease, it is a respiratory droplet disease.

The 1918 pandemic is quickly dismissed (even though it has been

described as the “most deadly disease event in the history of humanity” [Secretariat of WHO Executive Board. 2004. Avian influenza and human health. World Health Organization Executive Board report 114(6):1–5]) by blaming the trench warfare conditions for the reason so many fell ill. But and estimated 50 million people died. 50 million people were not in trenches. People died all over the world in the farthest reaches where no one even heard of world war one—in fact some of the Inuit villages were nearly wiped out.

The only other argument I can find to support the “H5N1 will never be a

pandemic” is arguing that since swine flu never materialized, an H5N1 pandemic won’t either. Besides being logically fallacious, there is an important difference between 1976 and now. The critical difference is the current global scientific consensus that H5N1 may represent a genuine pandemic threat. Back in 1976, authorities throughout the world-including the World Health Organization-disagreed with the United States that the death of a single soldier from a swine influenza virus warranted universal vaccination. They thought America was overreacting. But now the world’s authorities are in agreement. As summarized by Lee Jong-wook, the late Director-General of the World Health Organization, H5N1 is a “grave danger for all people in all countries.” I am not saying H5N1 is going to become a human pandemic. Neither are the experts in the field. They are saying that we simply don’t know—and unless there is overwhelming evidence to suggest otherwise (or really any evidence), I’m afraid the book is founded on a faulty premise. And by denying the potential threat, we are undermining pandemic preparedness efforts, such as improving the public health infrastructure.

The whole “no pandemic possible” thesis is such a tiny part of the book I think it can be eliminated easily and not damage the credibility with this fatal flaw. Unfortunately I cannot support a book which we do not feel is based on the available science.

If anyone is interested I can send you the PDF of the review copy they gave me. In response, Mercola’s co-author Pam Killeen wrote me the following response:

“Thank you for your thoughtful response, Dr. Greger. Unfortunately, it is too late in the publishing process to make any changes to the book. Dr. Mercola has already been public about his views over the bird flu, therefore at this stage, it wouldn’t be possible for him to modify the statement you are concerned about (“H5N1 will never be a pandemic”). However, we will certainly do our best to address the other issues you pointed out in the next printing.

I understand your position in the matter and appreciate the time you spent reviewing the book.”

I also reviewed Dr. Tenpenny’s bird flu “hype” book at her request. If I can find it I’ll post it as well.

Please don’t hesitate to contact me if anyone has any questions Michael Greger, M.D. mhg1@cornell.edu (240) 328–4615

Kathy in FL – at 11:53

Thank you for your review. From your review of the book, it appears that there are so many subtle errors — whether intentional or not — that the book as a whole fails to substantiate the author’s thesis.

Doesn’t sound like it would have ever made it past a doctoral thesis committee.

Snowhound1 – at 11:57

Maybe they could put a disclaimer at the beginning of the book..

Everything contained in this material is the sole opinion of the author. If a pandemic does occur and loss of life is great, the author and publisher shall not be held accountable or responsible for any repercussions, lawsuits, etc., from the reader of this material, should they or their family become sick or die from a future pandemic, when if fact, they disregarded multiple warnings from other writings and organizations.

Or something like that. >;)

crfullmoon – at 12:39

JT, now I hope you can get your relative to read and reflect on Dr.Greger’s thoughtful reply! (and, Snowhound1′s disclaimer!)

Good luck!

Tom DVM – at 12:51

michaelgreger.

We have a few physicians on flu wiki but could always use another voice and independent opinion.

In addition, there is a world-famous veterinary school at Cornell and we are short of veterinarians to comment as well.

You and your veterinary friends would be more than welcome.

Annoyed Max- Not mad yet – at 13:37

LOL it reminds me of what the health dept told me about it not happening because we now have the technology to tell people to wash their hands. Yeah sure, its really that simple. Personally I think the people that told me that are simple, but that’s just me.

crfullmoon – at 13:52

You and me, AM-Nmy… and quite a few others here probably agree…

Wildest “simple” response I got was from a citizen who, because they were “a patriot,” they believed “The President wouldn’t let something like a pandemic happen here!!”

What has happened to basic common sense and enough science/reality background to - uh-oh; now I hear “Gods of the Copybook Headlines” again…

Average Concerned Mom – at 14:08

michaelgreger-

thank you for taking the time to post — I appreciate your willingness to back your statement up with your name, degree and contact information. It means a great deal, though of course I also appreciate the anonymity this forum provides.

Meanwhile, back to hoaxes — I’ve lately been thinking that this whole “bird flu” scare was just dreamed up by the “Peak Oil” people…. they want to get us all living in local sustainable communities; converting to solar energy; eating local produce — it would be just like them to try to pull this one on us.

Average Concerned Mom – at 14:09

Hey, in case I wasn’t clear above — (-: just joking.

Fiddlerdave – at 14:14

Many people feel that way about their leaders, which I can’t begin to understand. Even the President himself and his cabinet and his supporters has repeatedly stated he can’t stop natural disasters, nor do anything about the effects (“You are on your own”). A pandemic is way worse.

RPh – at 14:23

The general population LOVES a good conspiracy, whether it’s true or not. There just has to be some evil plot that is underlying with everything that happens.

Bush is creating oil war…. Big Pharma is “creating” diseases…. Aliens are reading our minds….

It’s really too bad that the average person’s IQ is only 100 (like it could be otherwise). Perhaps then they would approach media/publishings/reports with a grain of common sense.

cactus – at 14:57

“It’s really too bad that the average person’s IQ is only 100 (like it could be otherwise). Perhaps then they would approach media/publishings/reports with a grain of common sense”

 I think that you`re way overestimating.  ;-)
cottontop – at 15:51

Aliens are reading our minds! Really? And I’m out of tin foil! D**n, gotta go to Walmarts.

JWB – at 16:12

Maybe we are just a flock of birds, all having a bad dream.

Annon-Norway – at 19:28

you all got is soo wrong. its not the peakoil folks behind, but that was close Average Coneserned Mum.. Its the Norwegian Canning Indusrtry. ( NCI ) After years of lowered saled of canned fish, the evil empire of canners made this plan to scare the poo out of people, making them buy a lot of canned small fish with toamato sause.. The plan was working very well untill the Unorganized Vegetarian Mililtia (UVM) couped the hole thing, claiming that beans and rice is a complete protein.

There is also some websites claiming that the owner of a realy big nasal spray factory is behind, trying to get even more of the population addicted to that phhht! nasal spray..

Poppy – at 21:04

To anyone wanting to say the 1918 pandemic didn’t happen and the possibility of H5N1 going pandemic is just a hoax all I can say is my mother in law, who was 2 when her mother died from the Spanish Flu in 1918, would tell you different and call you an idiot. I would probably say that you also think the holocost didn’t happen either.

People are entitled to their opinions even when they are wrong. Hopefully more people will listen to our president who is telling us to prepare for a pandemic. I think he probably has greater resources to the truth of the matter and I doubt he would be suggesting we prepare if he didn’t think the threat were real.

04 November 2006

crfullmoon – at 17:55

Ha-ha, Annon-Norway – at 19:28; all my new canned fishes are product of Denmark!

Your country’s brainwashing efforts have failed! (Hvad sagde De?)

05 November 2006

michaelgreger – at 10:24

I started a new thread on Dr. Tenpenny’s bird flu “hype” book if people are interested in reading about another pandemic threat denier’s work.

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.GreatBirdFluHoax
Page last modified on November 05, 2006, at 10:24 AM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Thank You

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Thank You

31 August 2006

JWB – at 14:20

This is my first Post.

I’ve been reading the Fluwiki since early this year. I must say that all of you regulars have really put together a very educational, informative, humorous, and thought provoking collection of post.

As the invisible countdown continues to what seems is going to be an era of biblical proportions, I feel confident that what I’ve learned here will make the difference for my family.

On behalf of my family, friends, neighbours, and all the countless people that are going to survive because of your efforts, THANK YOU !!!

History Lover – at 14:42

I second the thank you to the Flu Wiki. Because of the people on this website, I have learned how to store food, how to treat water, how to set up a sick room, and the many supplies I might otherwise not have bought (a corn tortilla press for example). But I love it most when someone makes me laugh, because God knows we all need some humor now.

Hillbilly Bill – at 14:50

Fluwiki is, without a doubt, comprised of a unique and wonderful group of people. I am very thankful I came to this website many months ago.

Watching in Texas – at 14:54

History Lover - ditto on the humor for sure!!

and re HB’s post at 14:50 - yep, what he said:-)

seacoast – at 15:20

We are a community of people who tuned into the possibilties of this virus becoming the next pandemic. Many of us are running around telling everyone who will listen to take this thing seriously and to prep, others are up to their eyeballs in research, digesting it and posting it here in simplier terms so the non-science people have a chance of understanding so they can go out into their communities and get people in decision making positions moving (that would also include mothers who are the decision makers for their families). Even if you only feel comfortable telling a few people, those are a few more who stand a better chance of living through this thing. Mom and Dads who are taking care of their children are protecting our future.

I have met wonderful people on this site and I thank all of you because each and every one of you offer support, thought provoking insights and active discussions that have made me consider information previously out of my field, virology and food storage, for example.

Commonground – at 15:45

Thanks to everyone here at the Wiki. You are all a wonderful source of information and inspiration. You make me laugh, and you all make me feel like I belong here. Can’t imagine going through this without you all!!

Timber – at 16:41

The amount of work it must have taken to build (and maintain!) the Wiki is beyond my comprehension — but, as with those above, not beyond my appreciation. I join them in expressing the gratitude we all feel.

01 September 2006

Thank contributors here – at 01:57

Great idea to start a thank you thread, because that is what you did. Thanks to everyone from me, too. But I want special thank you’s to all of you who are running the news thread, the mods, and those of you contributing to following the situation in Indonesia as it develops. Each time I visit the Indonesian Outbreak Case SUmmary thread I want to say thank you, because I am floored by the work people are putting into that. It feels so generous to me, so important. Can’t comment there! so I do here.

AnnieBat 02:30

Without this site I wouldn’t be anywhere near as well informed as I am nor would I be prepped. Thank you so so much to the wonderful people who had the conviction of their beliefs to start this Wiki and to all those that have allowed them to realise their ‘dream’.

To everyone who has the strength to post (or even just browse) - you are now part of the the most amazing global community that has ever been formed. I look forward to the big reunion we will all have when this is over. I will take that as the ‘all clear’ signal - when a thread is started saying we need volunteers to organise the Wiki reunion .

Anon in uk – at 07:16

Thank you all for the survival tips and a special thanks to Frenchiegirl

anon HN – at 16:29

bump

Captain1 – at 16:37

What everyone else has said goes for me and my family - many, many thanks to all of you!

DemFromCTat 17:31

The regulars make this site what it is. We just provide the framework.

But since someone has to say it, on behalf of all the mods and editors, you’re all very welcome.

lugon – at 18:05

Some Linux guy gave a technical chat and at the end, he suggested everybody might want to say “thank you” to their neighbor - the persons sitting next to each person in the audience.

Thank you, left and right. :-)

11 September 2006

many thanks – at 22:22

bump

NS1 – at 22:26

Lugon,

Is that you to my left or my right?

NS1 – at 22:36

Many thanks to all those who contribute from the owners and moderators to the subject matter experts and the practical application specialists.

Each voice hear moves us toward an answer.

many thanks – at 22:41

TO NS1

 Amen.

 In ten years we will be reviewing this site on the History Channel.

Many, many thanks to ALL posters!

12 September 2006

NS1 – at 01:16

Gather and Solve.

lugon – at 07:31

NS1 “left or right” - I guess both if we’re on different sides of the planet :)

Thank you, anyway!

kc_quiet – at 11:04

I have feared flu from early childhood. When I first heard of panflu I thought, well thats it, we’re all gonna die. Then I came here, and learned so much! Now I feel strongly that my family will have a fighting chance,with or without me. The gratitude I feel is enormous. You have collectively changed my life.

frankiew – at 11:11

I want to add my thanks to my new adopted family on the wiki. ya’ll have really changed the way I look at my life and the way that I live it now. Ya’ll have help me and my DH prepare our family in ways we had never even considered. I feel confident and prepared as much as you can possibly be prepared in these troublesome times. Every morning I check here for a few minutes, sometimes making a comment, sometimes printing out valuable information, sometimes just getting a daily chuckle over some obersavtion or incident that has happened in someone’s life. I also check in the later afternoon, to see if there is any new developments and how everyones day has been so far. GOD BLESS EVERYONE OF YOU. Keep on posting and I will keep on reading and passing on information that you provide.

29 October 2006

anonymous – at 21:23

Thanks to all of you, again.

I don’t know how much time is left, but when the SHTF I’m sure this site, if not the entire net, will crash. So I thank all of you now, and hope to see you personally May 15th, (Gatlinburg?).

Fish Mox, butter from New Zealand, Velvetta -to freeze or not to freeze, and the news hounds that do an amazing job covering Indonesia and India and the rest of the planet. Thanx!

seazar – at 21:55

I, too, would like to add my sincere thanks to all of you for your hard work and for caring enough to share such valuable information!! You’re the best!

Goju – at 22:17

Man this sounds like an obituary.

Gary Near Death Valley – at 22:31

I want to add my small voice to the chorus that is showing much graditude for Fluwikie and all of it moderators, organizers, and everyone that is connected by fluwikie one way or another. When I first found fluwikie, although I was already into prepping, this forum has added much education to what I have learned throughout my fire service career, I say thank you and know that by this forum and Fluwikie being here, has made a difference and will make a difference in so many countless lives, not only in the United States but throughout the world.

JWB – at 22:58

Goju! I’m surprised. I was going to add Thank You Goju, for your inspiration!

I’m still going to add it….

 Thank You Goju, for your inspiration! 

8-D

05 November 2006

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 00:07

Thank you guys and gals for all the blood, sweat and tears you all put in to giving us a safe place to exchange ideas!

Brock – at 00:33

Want to add my name to the thank you list.

Justa thought – at 08:55

I want to say thank you too. Especially for Dear Santa thread that had me laughing and thinking. What Frenchie girl said too.

crfullmoon – at 09:45

I can’t think of adequate words yet, but wanted to make sure I said I am very appreciative of being able to have the Flu Wiki, and the intelligent, caring people here.

Teach the children well… (back to basics; Nature, Science, Ethics?)

Pixie – at 09:55

Thanks to all for some of the most intelligent conversations I’ve seen anywhere.

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.ThankYou
Page last modified on November 05, 2006, at 09:55 AM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / News Reports for November 4

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: News Reports for November 4

04 November 2006

AnnieBat 01:16

(If you want any of the links to open in a new window, hold down the shift key and then click on the link)

Summary from Indonesia Outbreak as at 3 November 2006
||border=1 width=90%

Cases DiscussedJun-06Jul-06Aug-06Sep-06Oct-06Nov-06Total
Died, no tests22436017
Died, tested positive43233015
Other tested positive0131005
Suspected symptoms424638340124
Tested negative0626197058
Totals10148164500219

Lookout Posts – here are the links (if no Lookout Post exists, it will not be highlighted)

Please visit these threads for latest information from these regions or to add news

NoRegion NameNoRegion NameNoRegion Name
1USA8East Africa15Arab Peninsula
2Canada, Greenland and the Arctic Circle9Southern Africa and Madagascar16Central Asia
3Central America and Caribbean10Northwest Europe and British Isles17Southern Asia
4South America and Surrounding Islands11West and Southwest Europe18Mainland East Asia and Japan
5Northern Africa12Central and Southeast Europe19Southeast Asia
6West Africa13Eastern Europe and Baltic Region20Australasia Melanesia and Micronesia
7Central Africa14Middle East and Caucasus Region21Pacific Islands and Antarctic

(Please see the thread Volunteers Needed as Lookouts Worldwide if you want to help)

Separate threads for India, Indonesia and Nepal – see links below


Summary of News for 3 November 2006

(From WHO as at 31 Oct - latest update) Total human cases worldwide 256, deaths 152 (2006 – 109 with 74 deaths)

Canada

China

France

India

Indonesia

Nepal

Sri Lanka

Ukraine

United Kingdom

United States of America

‘’’ Vietnam

General

Link to news thread for 3 November (link News Reports for November 3 )
(Usual disclaimer about may not have captured everything. Feel free to add your own where omissions have occurred.)
Please note that I copy the links directly from the thread so if they don’t work you may need to re-visit the Thread.

ANON-YYZ – at 01:22

Ontario can’t be sued over West Nile virus Canadian Press

Toronto — Family and victims of West Nile virus cannot sue the Ontario government for failing to prevent its spread, the province’s highest court ruled Friday.

“People need to remember that back in 2002, the government was not telling us how serious a threat West Nile Virus was and what we needed to do to protect ourselves,” said Ms. Anweiler.

“Had I known back then that I was in danger, I could have protected myself.”

Lawyer Doug Elliott, who acted for the plaintiffs, said the case was important to “all Ontarians.”

“If this ruling is allowed to stand, it may mean ordinary people can never hold public health officials accountable in a court of law when their careless mistakes hurt and even kill people,” Mr. Elliott said.

The plaintiffs said they were considering asking the Supreme Court of Canada to review the case.

They have 60 days to do so.

COMMENT

Please read “Join Conversation” at the bottom of the news story. This kind of public sentiment may be why governments will always down play a medical threat. We have to wait for the Supreme Court decision, which may become a precedent should pandemic hits and many people die needlessly.

ANON-YYZ – at 01:23

Sorry link for “ontario” story

http://tinyurl.com/snf59

Leo7 – at 01:40

I hope this isn’t old news but in light of the WHO’s complaints about fast testing this seemed interesting. The Ithaca Journal in New York.

  ADVERTISEMENT 

Kionix high-speed bird flu test could create county jobs By Tim Ashmore Special to The Journal

Kionix Inc. announced today that it will enter a partnership with New York state to develop a rapid test for avian influenza, commonly known as bird flu.

The local company, a designer and maker of microelectromechanical devices, will use a $250,000 state grant and other economic development incentives to hire staff and open new production facilities.

ADVERTISEMENT

Kionix developed the diagnostic device for point-of-use detection of avian influenza that takes less than an hour, according to company officials. A good portion of the technology, known as microfluidics, was developed at Cornell University and Penn State before it was purchased by Kionix.

http://tinyurl.com/y7dk8v

Nimbus – at 11:17

Roche cuts price for flu drug

Preparing for avian flu pandemic, increased production capacity for Tamiflu

<snip>

On Friday, George Abercrombie, head of North American operations for Swiss pharmaceutical giant Roche, spoke about how Roche is preparing for an outbreak of avian flu during a forum at the N.C. Biotechnology Center.

Roche makes Tamiflu, one of two antiviral drugs that are effective against the avian flu virus. It also makes and markets Fuzeon, an HIV/AIDS treatment discovered by Durham-based Trimeris.

Abercrombie, a former Glaxo Wellcome executive in Research Triangle Park, talked to staff writer Sabine Vollmer about Roche’s avian flu plans and Trimeris.

Q What steps has Roche taken to prepare?

It takes nine to 12 months to make Tamiflu, and global sales average about 5 million courses of treatment per flu season. We cannot simply flip a switch and make Tamiflu in the case of a pandemic. To help governments stockpile the drug, Roche has lowered the price it charges governments by about 60 percent and increased production capacity to about 400 million courses of treatment per year. A course of treatment is 10 capsules.

Roche also came up with a response plan [for its own operations], which includes factoring in an employee absenteeism rate of about 40 percent at the height of an outbreak and stockpiling basic supplies to continue production.

<snip>

http://www.newsobserver.com/104/story/506208.html

MaMaat 11:44

NEWS

In-Forum- ‘ Dr. Mary Ann McNeilus will present a seminar on avian flu at 2 p.m. Sunday in Room 101, Comstock Memorial Union at Minnesota State University Moorhead, 615 14th St. S.

McNeilus will explain why relying solely on vaccines and expensive drugs is ill-advised. Shell demonstrate simple, inexpensive treatments.

She is a health and preventative medicine lecturer. For the past 15 years, she and her husband……giving assistance to the Amish community there. They also travel often to southeast Asia to provide medical assistance there.”

http://tinyurl.com/yenrxf

Anybody in the area interested?

NawtyBitsat 11:49

MaMa, your link goes to a log-in page.

MaMaat 11:54

NawtyBits, I see that you are right. I saw the article by clicking on the NewsNow listing and found the full article. Now when I go click on it it’s only a log in page. How odd.

Klatu – at 13:47

Strange sightings a test not UFO - (“Bird Flu Exerscise”)

Winnipeg Sun Fri, November 3, 2006

“Calls flooded in to Winnipeg radio stations about strange sightings in the Steinbach area are likely related to a bird flu training exercise.

The Canadian Food Inspection Agency confirms they’re testing avian influenza outbreak control exercises southeast of Winnipeg, but won’t specify an exact location.

Baffled Manitobans were phoning at least two Winnipeg radio stations this morning about seeing unusual activity outside of Steinbach.”

Again, it’s only a test.

http://tinyurl.com/yex7ec

(Up to 34,000 chickens may have been culled in the exercise)


Manitobans have a bird as 34,000 chickens die in exercise

Edmonton Journal

Saturday, November 4, 2006

It’s OK: We’re from your government

WINNIPEG (Canada) - There are a bunch of dead chickens, but no, the sky isn’t falling…”

(Subscription site)

http://tinyurl.com/yfp44v

Ruth – at 14:59

I can’t believe they killed 34,000 chickens for practice. I hope they at least donated the food to the homeless.

witness – at 15:06

Gastrointestinal Virus Outbreak at Boise Hospital

4 patients are sick and 8 staff members. Symptoms are nausea, vomiting and diarrhea. They have closed the hospital until they ‘know what they are dealing with.’

Please google title for more info.

Jane – at 15:11

Possible Norwalk virus. “Most people feel better in a couple of days.”

gastrointestinal virus

witness – at 15:27

These are two seperate articles. The first one says that it is a possible norwalk virus and people infected with norwalk usually get better ‘within one to two days.’They are not stating that these people are getting better within that time frame .Thankyou for the link to the second article Jane. Maybe someone could post the first so we can compare.(Sorry for the computer illiteracy.)

Jane – at 15:33

Here’s the first article: http://www.ktrv.com/Global/story.asp?S=5628253

Three more patients and 8 staff members are now ill. It started on Sunday with the admission of a nursing home patient, who developed the GI illness a few days later. “Now” 8 staff members are ill. They have closed the hospital for disinfecting.

aurora – at 16:00

Re the Canada drill - Well, I did find this, but I still think it’s strange.

Sky is not falling Bird Flu Exercise Causes Panic

“..Using carbon dioxide, about 34,000 chickens were euthanized in the mock outbreak, said the CFIA’s Dr. Sandra Stephens.

BIRDS OFFERED UP

“We’re doing a total mock-up of that situation, right from how we would take them out of the barn to how we would dispose of them,” she said.

Coming to the end of their production lives of about a year, the birds were offered up by Unger Poultry, a producer near Landmark, roughly 20 km southeast of Winnipeg.

Workers wearing white coveralls, bright green rubber gloves and full masks could be seen outside massive metal barns, which were cordoned off with yellow ribbon often seen at crime scenes. Stephens said roughly 60 people from the various agencies were taking part in the event.

A barn housing thousands of chickens was flooded with carbon dioxide. The chickens’ carcasses were put into a straw compost not unlike the garden-variety compost, though much larger, Stephens said.

The federal agencies tried to keep yesterday’s bird flu exercise under wraps. An official with the CFIA said it was to protect the privacy of the chicken producer.

Federal Agriculture Minister Chuck Strahl, in Winnipeg yesterday, defended the department’s decision to keep the drill a secret.

“If you say there’s going to be a surprise exercise tomorrow, that doesn’t work. There is an element of surprise to these things, that’s why they’re called exercises. You want to see how people react,” he said.

“I’m going to make a blanket statement — if you see somebody in a spacesuit, don’t worry.”

http://tinyurl.com/yfp44v

Klatu – at 16:28

Thanks aurora

witness – at 17:45

Is this new? Health officials investigate virus on Quad Cities Casino boatIowa Nov 1

“Cleanup crews are working at the Isle of Capri Casino and hotel in the Quad cities and health dept. officials are interviewing quests and staff after a ‘suspected ‘ norovirus outbreak at the casino.” I know we had boat in Kentucky,but just found this.www. desmoinesregister.com

I am running across all kinds of reports like this. Really don’t know if I should be posting them or not.

What if… – at 19:41

What if you had to kill 34,000 chickens because they had become infected with bird flu? What would be the best cover up? Ohh.. I think they found it, it’s called “mock outbreak”.

anonymous et al – at 21:11

Aurora 16:00 and Anon-YYZ 1:23,

Only posting this here instead of on Canada 3 thread because of what you pointed out in those news articles. It seems the Conservative Federal Government is full of surprises these days and the reasons for their “decrees” certainly don’t come clean in my books. That government is SO secretive and appears to have all their conservative members sworn to secrecy when it comes to what is their secret agenda. ( A lot of ‘secrets’ in that statement, but, certainly not funny) Anyway, according to this article in CBC web news, Harper won’t be attending the EU summit meeting on Nov.27 afterall. I will post the URL for this article, but IMO, “Harper’s office said he simply wants to stay close to the House of Commons, according to the Globe” needs to be considered as possibly more than what it appears. That govt. just comes down with a sledgehammer, suddenly and without warning. Expect that if a pandemic hits, the ‘sledgehammer’ will be the way they’ll treat that as well.

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2006/11/04/eu-harper.html

anonymous et al – at 21:17

Aurora 16:00 and Anon-YYZ 1:23,

Only posting this here instead of on Canada 3 thread because of what you pointed out in those news articles. It seems the Conservative Federal Government is full of surprises these days and the reasons for their “decrees” certainly don’t come clean in my books. That government is SO secretive and appears to have all their conservative members sworn to secrecy when it comes to what is their secret agenda. (A lot of ‘secrets’ in that statement, but, certainly not funny) Anyway, according to this article in CBC web news, Harper won’t be attending the EU summit meeting on Nov.27 afterall. I will post the URL for this article, but IMO, “Harper’s office said he simply wants to stay close to the House of Commons, according to the Globe” needs to be considered as possibly more than what it appears. That govt. just comes down with a sledgehammer, suddenly and without warning. Expect that if a pandemic hits, the ‘sledgehammer’ will be the way they’ll treat that as well. All they’ll offer in return is carrots or halloween candy.

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2006/11/04/eu-harper.html

Cygnet – at 21:45

aurora @ 1600 — they probably kept the exercise secret at least in part because of the high likelihood of animal rights activists objecting to the killing of the birds. In truth, layer hens have a useful (marketable) lifespan of about a year, and would have been butchered anyway. (There’s also little food value in layer hens. They’re all skin and bones.)

THe poultry industry is VERY concerned about AI and I can easily see a big corporation volunteering up a flock for practice.

Grandma – at 23:33

I put this post under rumors also I received this in my Google Alert By Victor D”Angelo A New bird flu strain has emerged in China and is spreading quickly The new strain is vaccine-sensitive. “ This virus seemed to spread very fast over a big geographic region,” said Yi Guan, director of the State Key Laboratory of Emerging Infectious Diseases at the University of Hong Kong in China. Go to www.dogflu.ca under Human Health on left side go to Health News

KimTat 23:36

Welcome Grandma! nice to have new people bringing us news.

Grandma – at 23:41

Thank you KimT Have lurked for awhile.

05 November 2006

AnnieBat 00:29

I am just creating the News Summary then I will start a new thread.

You might like to hold your posting for about 20–30 minutes.

Cheers and thanks

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.NewsReportsForNovember4
Page last modified on November 05, 2006, at 12:29 AM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Testing Totobobo Mask

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Testing Totobobo Mask

27 October 2006

nan – at 21:45

We are inviting volunteer to test our latest totobobo mask.

Improved from typical disposable face mask design, totobobo mask consists of a reusable clear shield and a disposable filter pair. The usage cost will be significant lower.

Other important features includes: toto-check - allows real-time seal check, more reassuring protection during use. toto-comfort - lower tension strap, soft clear shield and improved visual communication.

More information regarding totobobo can be found in www.totobobo.com

Please fill in this simple survey form if you are interested to participate.

nan – at 22:00

one more important feature of totobobo: toto-fit, you can easiy trim the mask to fit smaller faces even for children.

We are specially knee to have people with exceptional large or small faces to join our test.

28 October 2006

nan – at 07:05

2 entries so far, please post your question here if any clarification needed.

BTW, we will be introducing totobobo mask next week in “Global Entrepolis @ Singapore” http://www.globalentrepolis.com/en/home/ .

Bronco Bill – at 15:57

Not so sure if this isn’t advertising. Could this be advertising? They do have a link to FluWiki

29 October 2006

nan – at 04:04

Bronco Bill, we are not yet selling the mask, we want to give away 50 masks (free, including postage) to those who find it useful. In return we would like to get some feedback to help us to fine tune the product offer. I was told that Fluwiki is a well know platform and has a great community. So just trying my luck here.

I hope this post is not violating any rule and is not upsetting anyone in this forum?

Kenpofemme – at 07:28

It seems you only need the adress if you check interested in selling. Are you not sending them to people who don’t want to sell them for you? Not exactly a “free give away” if people have to be interested in selling them for you!

nan – at 09:16

Q 10 was added later so it was not anticipated initially. It does appear as you mention and it is certainly not our intention. If the product is to be useful for real people, we must get feedback from people who actually use it, not only from people who only interested in selling it. The answer to question 4 is now corrected.

Thanks to Kenpofemme.

Annonx2 – at 13:07

Questions:

The concept apprears to be that the clear masks can easily be customized to fit individual faces. Is there a simple way to Mark the masks after they have been customized for each user? eg - permanent marker “sharpie” to write family member initials? Would this wash off when the mask is disinfected?

What is the disinfection protocol for the mask? How many disinfection cycles will the mask survive? Have you done any usage cycle tests?

What happens if/when the straps for holding the mask on break? New mask required? Fixed or detachable straps?

What holds the 2 filters in place? How solid is the filter retention mechanism?

The 2 filters have a smaller surface area than a standard disposable N95 mask, does this imply a shorter useage time?

nan – at 22:44

Annonx2, following answers is based on my personal experience:

The concept apprears to be that the clear masks can easily be customized to fit individual faces. Is there a simple way to Mark the masks after they have been customized for each user? eg - permanent marker “sharpie” to write family member initials? Would this wash off when the mask is disinfected?

Yes, you can use permanent market to write family member initials on the surface of the mask. It won’t wash off if you use soap to clean it.


What is the disinfection protocol for the mask? How many disinfection cycles will the mask survive? Have you done any usage cycle tests?

I would suggest the same procedure as you would clean your hand by using soap and water. No usage cycle test has been performed yet.


What happens if/when the straps for holding the mask on break? New mask required? Fixed or detachable straps?

If the straps break, you need to get a new mask to get a new strape. It is a detachable strape. alternatively, you can use two normal rubber bands as ear-loops to hold the mask/filter. I suspect that is less comfortable but it is workable.


What holds the 2 filters in place? How solid is the filter retention mechanism?

The 2 filters is forced fit into the holes on the clear mask shield. The filters are more solid than the clear shield and the holes is slightly smaller than the matching part of the filters to ensure air-tight fitting.


The 2 filters have a smaller surface area than a standard disposable N95 mask, does this imply a shorter useage time?

Good question, I am not sure. I can find out and post the answer later.


04 November 2006

nan – at 17:21

So far, we received 10 submissions but sent out only 4 samples (All in USA). The rest of the entries did not reply or can not be reached by email. Please make sure your email address is correct before pressing the submit button.

FYI the link is provided here again:

http://tinyurl.com/ybwnl8

janetn – at 18:18

Your survey looks to much like a sales pitch. Sorry to question your motives but why havent you gone to a HCF to test this?

anonymous – at 18:44

On your website product photo- you can see the gaps all around the mask, bridge of nose/ chin. An airtight face seal is obviously not part of your “universal” fit. Needs work!!!

DemFromCTat 19:18

Flu Wiki does not endorse specific commercial products. I will close the thread but leave it posted if anyone has interest. Caveat emptor.

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.TestingTotoboboMask
Page last modified on November 04, 2006, at 07:19 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Nepal

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Nepal

31 October 2006

DennisCat 21:14

I thought that Nepal should have its separate thread. The death count on the “mystery illness” stands at 36 right now and they don’t think it is dengue or malaria. (they see a lot of that but this seems different). “ People suddenly catch high fever, start shivering, faint and then die. “ It (shivering) is about like the symptoms in birds. “The number of those affected and dead could be even higher, according to locals. “ “Dr Shuvesh Raj Kayastha, chief at Mahakali Zonal Hospital at Kanchanpur, Mahendranagar, said that the disease could be caused by viral infection. He further feared that it could be an illness similar to SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome).”

Here are the English news sources I have located on Nepal to help things along.

http://www.thehimalayantimes.com/

http://www.nepalnews.com.np/independent.htm

http://www.nepalnews.com.np/ktmpost.htm

http://www.nepalitimes.com/

http://www.peoplesreview.com.np/

http://www.radionepal.org/

http://www.nepalnews.com.np/trn.htm

http://www.nepalnews.com.np/spotlight.htm

http://www.nepalnews.com.np/sundaypost.htm

http://www.nepalnews.com.np/telegraph.htm

What ever it is, it doesn’t sound good.

DennisCat 21:19

and for for reference to start:

Mystery disease kills 36 in Nepal

KATHMANDU: The spread of an unidentified disease in Banke district, about 400-km west of Kathmandu, has claimed more than 30 lives in the past two weeks, Nepalese newspapers reported on Tuesday.

The disease made more than 500 people sick in four villages of the district and more than 36 people were in critical condition, the Himalayan Times reported.

The highest death toll, 23, occurred in Fattehpur village.

Thirty-six people had died due to the epidemic in just over one week, said Ram Bahadur Chand, chief of the epidemic control programme in the Banke District Public Health Office.

The major symptoms of the disease were high fever, body ache and loss of consciousness, the daily Kantipur reported.

Most of those who have died are children and the elderly, the Himalayan Times report said.

Medicines were said to be in short supply. Those who could afford treatment were visiting the Bheri zonal hospital in Nepalgunj town and hospitals in neighbouring India.

According to the report, even though the district health office dispatched a team to investigate and identify the disease, blood tests could not be conducted due to the absence of electricity.

http://tinyurl.com/ulamt

DennisCat 21:23

symptoms : “ Fever, headache, running nose, pain on hands and legs, difficulty in respiration are the symptoms of the disease.

http://tinyurl.com/yyzqfj

“According to locals, those who died showed strange symptoms of headache and breathing difficulty. They died shortly after..”

http://tinyurl.com/y27mks

DennisCat 21:25

“Several dozen people in Belapur VDC have been infected with the disease over the last 2 weeks, reports said. The disease has ‘’‘symptoms like severe headache, fever, and cough’‘’. Eight deaths have so far been confirmed in the VDC.”

http://tinyurl.com/ye5xn5

Pixie – at 21:30

Map of Nepal Administrative Divisions:

http://tinyurl.com/yynvae

Cygnet – at 21:34

It is very important to note that this may not be — and is probably not — H5N1. There’s no mention of a respiratory component that I’ve seen. (Which doesn’t mean that there’s not, but is worth noting.)

This is an extremely poor, extremely remote area with people who (from what I’ve been able to infer) may be dealing with chronic malnutrition. It could very easily be something mundane and ordinary … anything from measles to seasonal flu.

One GOOD thing, if this does turn out to be panflu, is that it IS very remote. Hopefully, they’d be able to contain it. If they can’t contain it then we may have a solid “heads up” between the time that we have a diagnosis (“Hey! These people are testing positive for influenza A!) and the time it really gets smoking. It might delay the start of the pandemic by several days to weeks — I’d much rather H5N1 go pandemic in the back beyond of Nepal than, say, Jakarta.

Since they note that there are medical personell in the area, we’ll likely hear one way or another about flu.

Cygnet – at 21:39

Ah. Looks like there are respiratory symptoms.

Hmmmm. Okay, I’m watching this one closely now.

And people are leaving the area to go to hospitals … if they’re going to hospitals, they should be able to get tests done to at least establish if they test positive for Influenza A.

Any news on health care workers getting sick?

Cygnet – at 21:42

Quick question for those who are better at crunching numbers than I — what’s the average time from date of onset to date of death for H5N1? (If this is panflu — and I’m hoping it’s not — but if it is, I’m thinking it’s too soon to establish a CFR yet because the disease will not have run its course for the majority of patients. CFR may go up.)

DennisCat 21:43

Yes, there has been no testing for H5N1 that I know about. Notice that they are having problem with testing since they don’t even have electricity.

DennisCat 21:50

Cygnet – at 21:42 -date of onset to date of death for H5N1

I seem to recall it is about 7 to 10 days from exposure to hospital symptoms and it can take a month or so before death.

notice the last Egyptian case. “the woman became ill on Sep 30 and was hospitalized Oct 4. She had suffered from pneumonia and been treated with oseltamivir.” and then died on Oct 30. She was tested as “negative during all but the last of the hopital treatment. That should give you an idea. But we don’t know her original exposure date.

http://tinyurl.com/uruvq (for the Egypt info)

Cygnet – at 21:55

Rapid antigen testing for influenza A does not require electricity.

Cygnet – at 21:57

(Sorry, didn’t mean to sound so abrupt.Touchy mouse here.)

I’m suspecting the “no electrity” comment may have had more to do with testing for malaria.

DennisCat 22:15

My guess if if the little mountain clinic cannot afford electricity, they may not be able to afford antigen testings or a frig to keep supplies in.

Okieman – at 22:28

I posted this on the India thread before I realized DennisC had started a Nepal thread. I think it is a worthwile article to post here too.

Medical teams leave for Banke Himalayan News Service Banke, October 31:

Teams of medical professionals today left for remote villages of Banke district affected by an undiagnosed disease, District Public Health Office (DPHO) Banke said. An 11-member team led by Dr Kumar Sanshah left for the affected VDCs including Fattehpur, Gangapur and Narainapur, chief of Epidemic Disease Control Program of DPHO, Ram Bahadur Chand said. An eight-member team led by Dr Jeewan Pradhan left for Holiya VDC. The teams have taken equipment necessary for blood tests and administering medicines adequate for around 500 patients. The disease has not been diagnosed yet but medical professionals have taken medicines for malaria because PF positive was found in the blood samples of two patients from the village, the DPHO said. “A medical team has started testing the blood samples of the patients but the results have not reached the DPHO yet due to lack of means of communication,” Chand said. Local residents said the patients were being distributed medicines for malaria even though the disease wasn’t diagnosed. The DPHO is also making preparations to spray insecticides to prevent spread of the disease. Chand added that DPHO Banke has asked for a specialists’ team from the Health Ministry for control of the disease. “We have asked for a specialists’ team; we are really concerned for the treatment of the patients,” Chand said. Advisor of Health Ministry, Dr Mahesh Maskey and Senior Public Health Officer Giriraj Subedi reached Nepalgunj to coordinate for control of the epidemic.

http://tinyurl.com/y2vymn

Okieman – at 22:38

Also want to repost this article. Please take note of the ages. In looking at the CDC website concerning malaria it appears that pregnant women and young children are the ones at greatest risk of severe cases of malaria. The ages of those reported in this article do not match that criteria, though it does say “Most of those dead are children and the aged.” Malnutrition could also be a contributing factor.

Banke mystery disease toll rises to 36

Tuesday, October 31,2006

BANKE: An unknown disease spreading in four village development committees across Banke’s Rapti has taken 36 lives so far. The number of patients who are suffering from the disease has risen to 500.

The toll has risen to 23 in Fattehpur VDC, 10 in Gangapur VDC, two in Narainapur and one in Chauferi village. Most of those dead are children and the aged. Over 36 people are in a critical condition. Medicines are in short supply. Those who can afford treatment are visiting Bheri zonal hospital and hospitals in India.

Three sons of Sarif Khan at Piprahawa in Fattehpur VDC died three days ago. One Bhaigeni Ahir’s 13-year-old son Ram Oasis Ahir and 16-year-old daughter Kushmi Ahir died yesterday. Baismali Budhamagar, 52, died in Fattehpur VDC yesterday. Her neighbour, 44-year-old Krishna Bahadur Gharti, had died five days ago.

Seven persons at Fattehpur - 6 Jhagariya and three in Fattehpur ward number 1 died within a week. According to assistant health worker in the Gangapur health post, Narayan Sharma, 10 persons have died in Gangapur VDC. Head of the epidemic control programme in the District Public Health Office (DPHO) Banke, Ram Bahadur Chand, confirmed that 36 people have died due to the epidemic in the last one week across the Rapti.

Even though the DPHO dispatched a team, blood tests could not be done due to the absence of electricity and, as a result, the disease could not be identified. Blood samples have been taken from some people and medicines given to them, AHW Sharma said.

“I informed the DPHO about the situation on Friday, but the team arrived here today. The disease is still unknown,” Sharma told this daily.

Nasaruddin Seikh of Fattehpur 5 Piprahawa, said: “All in my family are sick. People are dying. People can save their lives if doctors and medicines start coming.” Locals have accused the government of being indifferent to their plight.

http://tinyurl.com/y38hc7

01 November 2006

Leo7 – at 01:05

I googled the temp there, it’s sunny and 66F with the five day forecast dropping into the fifties. This is too cool for mosquitoes unless they act differently in that part of the world. With 500 sufferring and many critically ill I wonder what medications the doctors gave them? They didn’t have electricity to run blood tests with. We should scan for a Tamiflu blanket over the next few days.

Dennis C: Glad you started the thread.

Many Cats – at 01:16

DennisC: Yes, thank you for starting this thread, but I wish you didn’t have to. How sad this all is. :(

Betty – at 03:00

Cerebral malaria identified as killer disease in Banke

Kathmandu, 31 Oct: Cerebral malaria resulted in the deaths of 36 persons in Banke. This was confirmed after medical tests, Kantipur FM reported quoting government health officials. The disease has infected nearly 500 persons. Three health camps are being established to treat the sick Wednesday at the villages.

People’s News/BR

Betty – at 03:07

What is cerebral malaria?

Cerebral malaria (CM) collectively involves the clinical manifestations of Plasmodium falciparum malaria that induce changes in mental status and coma. It is an acute, widespread disease of the brain which is accompanied by fever. The mortality ratio is between 25–50%. If a person is not treated, CM is fatal in 24–72 hours. The histopathological hallmark of this encephalopathy is the sequestration of cerebral capillaries and venules with parasitized red blood cells (PRBCs) and non-PRBCs (NPRBCs). Ring-like lesions in the brain are major characteristics. Disease risk factors include being a child under 10 years of age and living in malaria-endemic area.

What are the symptoms?

Clinical manifestations of cerebral malaria are numerous, but there are three primary symptoms generally common to both adults and children: (1) impaired consciousness with non-specific fever; (2) generalized convulsions and neurological sequelae; and (3) coma that persists for 24–72 hours, initially rousable and then unrousable.

The cause of cerebral malaria is not well understood. Currently, there are two major hypotheses explaining its etiology. They are the mechanical and the humoral hypotheses.

What are possible treatment options?

As cerebral malaria is the fatal within days of malaria infection if left untreated, immediate treatment is crucial. Because natural immunity to malaria is not fully understood (Immunity) and thus cannot yet be artificially imitated by drugs, control and prevention strategies are significant. Two of these are antimalarial chemotherapy and adjunctive measures. Public health interventions are also critical (Public Health).

P. falciparum parasites in brain capillary (J.S. Tatz)

AnnieBat 04:22

I have found the encarta map which shows Banke in the south of Nepal, close to the border with India. This makes it more of a tropical area - compared with the mountainous regions we usually associate with Nepal.

Here is the link to the map - you can zoom in and out and find all sorts of places - have fun!

http://tinyurl.com/y3kssw

AnnieBat 04:31

DennisC @ 21:25 on 31 October … I think Belapur is in India - not far from Mumbai - I cannot find a similar/same name in Nepal.

LauraBat 06:06

Great, that’s all we need is it to spread to the much more populous country of India. But I also wonder if malaria is a disease that’s common there, or maybe they’re having a warmer than normal fall, wetter than normal, etc? Malaria is nasty no matter what but this form seems especially bad.

I finally heard back from my friend hiking in Nepal - he said there are rumors about this disease already floating around the country - he’s no where near but word travels fast enough even in remote areas. It definitely has people spooked because victims seem to die so quickly. A member of his group had to go to a local “clinic” for antibiotics for an infected foot and reported back it was a pretty scary place. And this is a group of guys used to roughing it.

Also - don’t bet on it being so “remote” 1000′s of Westerners go backpacking in Nepal every year. My friend and his mates will be back in England in two weeks. And if it’s something airborne, like mosquitos, well, we all know what can happen with that.

beehiver – at 09:42

Betty at 3:07, thanks for the info about cerebral malaria. However, the clinical picture did not include respiratory difficulties as posted for instance by DennisC at 21:23 yesterday. Thus, one is prompted to wonder if there is another pathogen in circulation.

Oremus – at 11:44

LauraB – at 06:06

Great, that’s all we need is it to spread to the much more populous country of India.

Mystery disease kills 36 in Nepal

The disease made more than 500 people sick in four villages of the district and more than 36 people were in critical condition, the Himalayan Times reported.

The highest death toll, 23, occurred in Fattehpur village.

Thirty-six people had died due to the epidemic in just over one week, said Ram Bahadur Chand, chief of the epidemic control programme in the Banke District Public Health Office.

Oremus – at 11:46

Sorry the line I tried to highlight in blue did not post. (curious)

Medicines were said to be in short supply. Those who could afford treatment were visiting the Bheri zonal hospital in Nepalgunj town and hospitals in neighbouring India.

Pseudorandom – at 12:02

The CDC site on malaria notes that symptoms of severe malaria caused by P. falciparum include “pulmonary edema (fluid buildup in the lungs) or acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), which may occur even after the parasite counts have decreased in response to treatment.”

In regards to whether malaria is endemic to Nepal, they have the following description of risk for travelers: “Nepal: Rural areas in the Terai and Hill Districts, except no risk at altitudes higher than 1,200 meters (3,937 feet). No risk in Kathmandu or on typical Himalayan treks.”

To my mind, it is within the realm of possibility that they could be experiencing a severe and sudden explosion of P. falciparum malaria, with the result that a percentage of those infected have developed cerebral effects. However, other explanations are also within the realm of possibility.

Pixie – at 12:04

AnnieB:

I hope that the problem in the Banke district of Nepal is malaria, but on the India thread when we first noticed patients with suspected dengue entering the teaching hospital in Nepalgunj, Nepal (the main city in the Banke district), followed by several members of the same Nepalgunj University Hospital teaching staff falling ill with suspected dengue, we looked up the weather forcasts for that area. (BTW, the suspected dengue patients in the Nepalgunj Hospital, Banke region, all tested negative for dengue, including the staff).

The mosquito’s apparently do not breed or survive well when the weather begins to drop below 19 degrees C at night (at least that’s what we’ve heard over and over from New Delhi about their hopes that their dengue plague is now ending with the cooler weather).

Unfortunately, the weather in Banke district is not completely tropical at this time and some of the mosquito problem should have been taken care of by the cool nightime temperatures. The forecast for this upcoming week in Nepalgunj is very much like last week’s, with daytime/nightime temperatures © forecast from Wednesday as:

28/13 - 28/14 - 26/13 - 27/12 - 27/12

http://tinyurl.com/y8x38s

Homesteader – at 12:33

Did some checking on the Banke district, is primarily under 500 meters elevation. That makes it well within the guidelines for mosquito to live in Nepal. Additionally, the area has suffered much flooding to the extent that Red Cross and others mobilized to set up mobile clinics, refugee camps etc. . .and an advisory was put out that some communicable diseases including malaria could increase.

Pixie – at 12:48

DennisC has just posted an update about the suspected dengue patients in Nepalgunj (on the Not BF But Close thread). The tested 15 patients in the Nepalgunj medical college using the more sensitive Eliza test, and 6 patients tested positive for dengue (which still makes me wonder what the other 10 have).

Two additional cases are also noted as having gone to Lukhnow for treatment, one of which I believe was the professor whose family moved him in rather a panic after the medical college failed to reach a diagnosis. The two Lukhow cases are noted as being treated for dengue.

http://tinyurl.com/y2temc

Urdar-Norway – at 13:37

Kathmandu (Nepali: ????????, Nepal Bhasa:???) is the capital city of Nepal and it is also the largest city in Nepal. It stands at an elevation of approximately 4,265 ft (1,300 m). It is an urban and suburban area of about 1.5 million inhabitants in the tri-city area in the Kathmandu Valley in central Nepal, along the Bagmati River. The two other cities are Patan and Bhaktapur http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kathmandu

the backyard of the world, lets hope so if… Last time I saw a dockumentary about himalaya it was like scoutscamp of trekkers and climbers there, not to mention the paraschut folks, the hangliders, the scientists and astronomers etc.. Lets hope its the wrong season if it is HPH5N1.. And overpopulated India is next door. They also have some hard conflict beween government and Maoist guerilia..

some NGOs is probably there with healthcare..

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nepal

Homesteader – at 13:51

Well, I still have some questions.

On the plus side the area has had flooding which increases the likelihood of malaria.

On the negative side, the weather has been to cool for optimal mosquito activity. The locals including the health care workers didn’t see it as malaria. Malaria is endemic to the area so not only should they recognize the symptoms but it is common practice in areas with endemic malaria to treat for malaria based on symptoms and not wait for results from the lab. Also, one article dated 10/31 states the health team/officials (which had some bigwigs in it if the titles in the article are true) arrived on 10/31. Another article dated 10/31 quotes the health officials as stating that the outbreak is Cerebral Malaria. IMHO it is pretty fast work to arrive in a remote location, set up shop, test all or most of the subjects spread out in several villages, compare notes from all the villages, and make the public statement arrive back in time to make news that same day. Just MHO based on my personal experience in some very remote locations that didn’t involve setting up medical equipment. Again, JMHO.

Please, add your comments, especially on anything I overlooked or misinterpreted ie: dates of the news articles etc.

beehiver – at 14:13

Wow, all you sleuths are wonderful, we have a pretty good team here looking up information!

Sniffles – at 14:26

Homesteader – at 13:51 Your questions about the outdoor temperatures, dates of team members going onsite and then the date of the cerebral malaria diagnosis were ones I also had. In some of the articles, it stated that these individuals were not testing positive for malaria. If they were negative, I would assume they would be negative for cerebral malaria as well.

The villagers are stating that the politicians are not doing anything and the people of Nepal are starting to get nervous about the “mystery illness”. Could this extremely quick diagnosis be one to just satisfy the people until they can do more testing? I do not want to sound like a conspiracy theorist, but this fast diagnosis of less than a day does not make sense to me. A diagnosis of malaria (a disease they have to deal with on a regular basis) may make the people less angry with the governmental officials involved.

Homesteader – at 14:28

Follow-up on previous post; My background checking found that Mosquitos/malaria are not present above 1200 meters in Nepal. Banke district is primarily 500 meters. Link is for nifty map site for Nepal which is where I got the elevation info.

http://www.digitalhimalaya.com/collections/nepalmaps/

Pseudorandom – at 14:32

I also agree that there are some questions that need answering.

It’s possible that there might indeed be a small malaria outbreak there, due to the flooding, sufficient to give a few positive test results, that authorities are falsely proclaiming to be the cause of all of the illness. A masking effect, in other words, whether deliberate or not. I guess we will always wonder about coinfection in these situations.

Homesteader – at 14:41

A quote from one of the articles, compliments of Okie.

Medical teams leave for Banke Himalayan News Service Banke, October 31:

Teams of medical professionals today left for remote villages of Banke district affected by an undiagnosed disease, District Public Health Office (DPHO) Banke said. An 11-member team led by Dr Kumar Sanshah left for the affected VDCs including Fattehpur, Gangapur and Narainapur, chief of Epidemic Disease Control Program of DPHO, Ram Bahadur Chand said. An eight-member team led by Dr Jeewan Pradhan left for Holiya VDC. end quote.

So the Chief of Epidemic Disease Control Program of DPHO either volunteered or was ordered to go. The article states they left today (10/31) to get to a remote area, yet they also declared the cause of the outbreak the same day? Sounds like WHOeey to me.

DennisCat 14:43

Pseudorandom – at 14:32

I agree. I would feel so much better if they said something like- we checked for H5N1 and it was negative in all cases. But I worry too much…. I’ve got to stop that.

Homesteader – at 15:25

One more post and then I’m going to leave this alone.

Question for an experienced Tropical Disease Doc: Does this outbreak profile match a typical malaria outbreak profile?

From what I can gather sypmtoms typically appear 7–20 days after infection,(which only occurs when a mosquito bites an infected human, then goes and bites another infected human. This could explain family members being infected, but articles quote villagers as saying every family in some villages had an infected member) with shorter time before onset in younger children. Additionally, people native to areas where malaria is endemic often have developed a degree of immunity. This outbreak’s timeline appears to my untrained eye to be quite compressed for a typical malaria outbreak. That is why I’m hoping minds greater than mine will comment.

Pixie – at 20:45

Recent Timetable for Nepal

Map of Nepal Administrative Divisions: http://tinyurl.com/yynvae

Pixie – at 20:50

I thought it would be helpful to have a summary of the action in Nepal recently. I have no idea what may be happening there, and even ProMed has discussed dengue, Japanese Encephalitis, Malaria, and Influenza as being possible. One news report speculated that some reported symptoms resembled SARS.

Wolf – at 20:52

Thanks, Pixie. Such summaries are of great benefit for those of us with little time (and short attention spans:)

anonymous – at 20:56

This is in India, posted by witness on India III thread. Symptoms are identical to all the Nepal posts.

Mystery disease strikes village, three dead Our Correspondent

Fatehabad, October 28 Death of three persons in a span of one week due to some mysterious disease at Dayyar village in this district has caused scare among villagers.

The disease has affected almost all families in the village, which has some 800 houses. Those who died of this disease complained of high fever, severe headache and vomiting. Villagers allege it is an attack of dengue. However, the health authorities have denied it and said supply of contaminated drinking water was responsible for the disease.

According to reports, Pala Ram (40) of the village died on October 21 after a brief illness. Ishwar Godara (42) died the next day. On October 24, Dara Singh (22) also died. All the three died after a brief illness and complained of high fever, severe headache and vomited blood before breathing their last. Several other villagers are suffering from fever in this village.

Link: http://www.tribuneindia.com/2006/20061029/haryana.htm#1

Homesteader – at 21:07

Sorry, hit the submit button too early.

Wikipedia link for Fatehabad (reporter from Fatehabad)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Ganeshbot/sandbox/Fatehabad

Couldn’t locate Dayyar. Fatehabad is due west of Banke District, Nepal.

LauraBat 21:10

Never a good sign when no one can even figure out or agree what is the cause.

Okieman – at 21:52

Death toll up to 39 now. Article linked below has additional case info (age) concerning the deceased.

http://tinyurl.com/ykvym5

Homesteader – at 22:03

excerpt from above:

Meanwhile, a report from Bara said blood tests of 25 persons in Bara’s Kabahi Goth showed one person was infected with malaria.

So what is wrong with the other 24?

Pixie – at 22:08

NEPALGUNJ, Banke, Nepal

BY JANAK NEPAL / http://tinyurl.com/ygr68m

36 die of unknown illness in Banke

BANKE, Oct 31 - Thirty-six people have died of an “unknown” disease that has spread in six villages in the district in the last two weeks, according to latest updates. More than 50 [sic] people have been affected by the ailment.

In Phattepur VDC alone, 23 people have died due to the disease. According to Nedeer Khan, a local, 11 people from Prirahawa village of ward number 4 and 5 of the VDC; seven from Nagakaipur village; three from Phattepur village and two from Hardaiwa village have died.

Likewise, 10 people died of the disease in Gangapur and three in Narainapur village-one died during treatment in Nepalgunj Hospital on Sunday, while two had died in the Gangapur earlier.

Viral fever, body ache, shivering and sudden unconsciousness are some of the symptoms of the “mysterious ailment”, locals said.

Almost every household in these villages has at least one member suffering from the ailment, locals claimed. Many victims have not received any medical care so far due to the poor financial condition of these impoverished families.

Several patients have been going to local drugstores asking for help. “About 30–35 patients come to us daily. As we do not have any means to diagnose the ailment, we have been giving antibiotics to the patients assuming it is common cold,” said a local pharmacist, requesting anonymity.

Meanwhile, health agencies are yet to send medical teams to the villages in the region. Doctors and medicines had still not reached the region even until Tuesday afternoon.

The district health office had received information that the disease had spread in the region on Friday. Although the medical team was scheduled to arrive at the area today, latest reports state that the doctors are yet to leave Nepalgunj.

Although the “mystery” disease that has affected over 150 people in six villages of four VDCs is suspected of being Malaria, blood tests conducted by a team of Malaria inspectors and lab assistants yesterday failed to identify aliment.

“In the absence of electricity, our equipments failed to identify the disease”, the team was quoted saying.

However, malaria medicine has already been administered to patients whose condition has become critical, Gangapur Health post in charge Narayan Sharma said.

Meanwhile, the seven party leaders of Banke have accused their respective parties of neglecting the possibly epidemic nature of the situation. An emergency meet of the leaders is going on in Banke.

“We are shocked at the disregard shown by the health agencies,” secretary of CPN-UML Banke Devraj Bhar said, adding, “A team of specialists should be immediately dispatched to the region.”

Okieman – at 22:22

I’m beginning to smell a rat. I have gone back and forth in my mind as to whether to post this, but my suspicion has won out. On the link below you will see mention of the mystery disease we are talking about. Yesterday there were four different links to news sources all touting the “36 deaths” due to a mysterious disease. This evening it looks significantly different. Someone has changed it to make it appear a bit less ominous. This, along with the quick diagnosis, within the same day of announcement of the investigative team leaving Kathmandu, makes me wonder if panic control via information manipulation has begun.

http://nepalresearch.org/health/epidemics.htm

DennisCat 23:06

Pixie – at 20:45

very good - thanks.

witness – at 23:14

Okieman - Thanks for your post. I must say,I agree.I posted this next article on the India site,but after seeing Pixie’s post at 22:08 mention shivering, I decided to post it here also.

Mystery disease kills nine mules—Gaighat,Oct.9 An unknown disease has cropped up among mules,leaving nine of them dead on Saturday in Udaypur. The nine dead mules were among 40 others that were carrying goods from Gaighat to Diktel of Khotang.The mules sweated profusely and shivered before dying. Eight other mules died after evincing similar symptoms before the Tihar festival.Though tissue samples of the mules that died a few months ago were sent o Kathmandu to ascertain the cause of their death, the disease is yet to be identified.www.thehimalayantimes.com

Tom DVM – at 23:14

Okieman. I agree with you. I am a veterinarian and not an expert in semi-tropical diseases…but a lot of the human disease that has been mentioned on Indonesia, Nepal and India etc. threads are remarkably similar in clinical signs and often seem unrelated to the etiology mentioned. The case of a number of persons dying from water contamination is quite wrong unless the water was contaminated with industrial poisons.

I don’t think all the intuition here is wrong…you just haven’t been able to put your collective finger on it…yet.

Stick with it…this can’t go one forever.

Tom DVM – at 23:18

An animal example of the same thing would be the sudden silence about the millions of pigs that have been dying in China…did they stop dying? Who knows? When they came up with a list of rule outs for the disease, it looked like they just started writing down diseases in the index of a veterinary textbook.

A lot of people are being told to keep quiet…and the teller must have a great deal of percieved power.

Anon_451 – at 23:30

While I have to say that this all may be very innocent and it just be what it appears to be, simple diseases in far off lands, My gut tells me to be wary of the reports because all to often a “Government offical” can walk into a Doctors office, in the countries in quesion, and say “This is the disease Doctor and that is how it WILL be reported” I suspect that the US CDC, may currently be guilty of the same thing

Cygnet – at 23:38

Given that this is an area where malaria is endemic, I’d be surprised if they DIDN’T have some positive tests.

Question for the doctors here:

1. How easy is malaria to diagnose? (i.e., is it like dengue where you can have it and test negative?) 2. Will asymptomatic carriers test positive? (i.e., they’ve got the bug but the symptoms are from something else) 3. How likely is an large outbreak like this in an area where people are likely already heavily exposed?

Tom DVM – at 23:40

Anon 451. I would agree but they keep mentioning the same clinical signs. I am amazed as a veterinarian at how many viral disease result in temp, pneuonia and bleeding from nose and mouth…and at the same times have sudden deaths that usually don’t occur with pneumonia.

What we are probably getting is a number of clusters that don’t break open to a full pandemic because the virus has not acquired the potential yet…

…in this case, they could be diagnosed with only suspected disease as they die quite quickly and no one would be the wiser because it is only expanding so far.

Just from my experience with disease, it doesn’t make any sense the way they describe things.

DennisCat 23:49

Again, it seems like “they” (WHO) would just test for H5N1 and then report the results. But I guess that would be too simple. Surely they know that the world is concerned and at risk.

Ree – at 23:58

The malarial parasite is visible within red blood cells - a Wright-Geimsa stain and a microscope is all the equipment necessary, both of which are rudimentary and portable. That said, it would be pretty hard to see it without electricity for your scope. The testing for malaria vs. detection of a viral illess would be vastly different. With viruses you’re looking for antibodies present in serum. Malarial parasites can be seen with the eye. Not easy to mistake the two IMO.

02 November 2006

Ree – at 00:08

Comment: It does say here that only the younger stages are present (thus visible)in the circulating blood cells. That would make it harder to detect in the really sick folks, but more likely to find it in people whose disease is not as advanced. It may be too late for those who’ve died, but early enough to see it in the people around them.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plasmodium_falciparum

Among medical professionals, the preferred method to diagnose malaria and determine which species of Plasmodium is causing the infection is by examination of a blood film microscopically in a laboratory. Each species has distinctive physical characteristics that are apparent under a microscope. In P. falciparum, only early trophozoites and gametocytes are seen in the peripheral blood. It is unusual to see mature trophozoites or schizonts in peripheral blood smears as these are usually sequestered in the tissues.

Ree – at 00:27

http://www.rbm.who.int/wmr2005/profiles/tajikistan.pdf

From April 05 about malaria in Tajikistan, but it verifies that people can be asymptomatic carriers, or reservoirs for infection. All you need are the mosquitos…

Okay, I’ll go back to my room now.

gharris – at 00:44

Interesting link to history and prevalence of malaria in Nepal

http://tinyurl.com/y94q26

gharris – at 00:48

Nepalese Pandemic Plan http://tinyurl.com/yckmdc

In February 2006 the Government of Nepal endorsed a joint Health and Agriculture National Avian Influenza and Influenza Pandemic Preparedness and Response Plan (NAIIPPRP). The plan created a joint health and agriculture Technical Subcommitte on Avian Influenza (TSCAI) under the National Disaster Relief Central Coordination Committee.

As the NAIIPRP is strategic in nature, a detailed Operational Plan for the period 2006–2010 was developed and endorsed by the TSCAI in August 2006. This USD18.2 million plan has a human health and an animal health component, as actual implementation will fall mainly under the two responsible line ministries: Ministry of Health and Population and Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives. Conversations for funding of the Plan are ongoing with the World Bank and a final appraisal mission is planned for October. This mission will lead to negotiations between GoN and WB. It is expected that the WB will provide full funding of the plan including resources for a compensation fund for indemnification to farmers if culling were necessary to control avian flu. The UN team, (WHO, FAO, UNICEF, UNDP and OCHA) and the WB played a pivotal role in ensuring the technical soundness of the different components of the Plan.

The Plan, that is expected to initiate in December 2006, beyond preparing the country for the advent of avian influenza or an influenza pandemic, will therefore have a significant effect on improving the performance of disease surveillance and control and improvement of both human health and animal health irrespective of the evolution of the avian influenza situation.

In August, the MOHP, Department of Health Services, with support from WHO, trained 50 Regional staff, belonging to the Rapid Response Teams of the Public Health Network on Human Avian Influenza Outbreak Investigation. Trainers were WHO experts from Thailand and Delhi. WHO has also provided the MOHP with sufficient sets of Personal Protective Equipment and antivirals to respond to 30 outbreaks in each development region. Antivirals and PPE for the hospital management of suspected cases and if necessary for containment activities, have also been procured for the MOHP. read more…

gharris – at 00:53

old news from CDC - but may be useful now? http://tinyurl.com/vc5wx

In July 2004, an outbreak of influenza A (H3N2) was detected at 3 Bhutanese refugee camps in southeastern Nepal. Hemagglutination inhibition showed that ¡Ö40% of the viruses from this outbreak were antigenically distinct from the A/Wyoming/3/03 vaccine strain. Four amino acid differences were observed in most of the 26 isolates compared with the A/Wyoming/3/2003 vaccine strain. All 4 substitutions are located within or adjacent to known antibody-binding sites. Several isolates showed a lysine-to-asparagine substitution at position 145 (K145N) in the hemagglutinin molecule, which may be noteworthy since position 145 is located within a glycosylation site and adjacent to an antibody-binding site. H3N2 viruses continue to drift from the vaccine strain and may remain as the dominant strains during the 2005¨C2006 influenza season. Thus, the 2005¨C2006 Northern Hemisphere vaccine strain was changed to A/California/7/2004, a virus with all 4 amino acid substitutions observed in these Nepalese isolates.

gharris – at 01:09

In December 2005, nearly 3000 cases of Japanese encephalitis were reported of which more than 300 people died. The most affected areas were in the western, mid-western and far-western regions of Nepal. For further details of areas affected please see the World Health Organisation Regional Office for South East Asia website at: Japanese Encephalitis.

From Nepal British Embassy website http://tinyurl.com/yy7z9c

gharris – at 01:16

Old news - The New Straits Times, March 31, 1999

Singapore - Another eleven abattoir workers in Singapore have been tested positive for a newly-detected virus, one of the two which has killed 71 people in Malaysia. A government statement said the Hendra-like virus was detected in blood samples of the victims sent to the Atlanta-based Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for testing. The abattoir workers were earlier suspected of being infected with Japanese encephalitis (JE). One of them have since died while six of the 11 remain in hospital, one of them in serious condition. http://tinyurl.com/ydfg4v ____________________________________________________

I posted this because I wonder if there is a ‘trend’ in these old news stories - Japanese Encephalitis confused with ‘hendra-like virus’ and mystery illness similar to that in Nepal?? The animals killed in the abbattoir possibly a mammalian vector for it??

gharris – at 01:19

Hendra virus (formerly called equine morbillivirus) is a member of the family Paramyxoviridae. The virus was first isolated in 1994 from specimens obtained during an outbreak of respiratory and neurologic disease in horses and humans in Hendra, a suburb of Brisbane, Australia. Nipah virus, also a member of the family Paramyxoviridae, is related but not identical to Hendra virus. Nipah virus was initially isolated in 1999 upon examining samples from an outbreak of encephalitis and respiratory illness among adult men in Malaysia and Singapore.

gharris – at 01:21

The natural reservoir for Hendra virus is thought to be flying foxes (bats of the genus Pteropus) found in Australia. The natural reservoir for Nipah virus is still under investigation, but preliminary data suggest that bats of the genus Pteropus are also the reservoirs for Nipah virus in Malaysia. Where are the diseases found?

Hendra virus caused disease in horses in Australia, and the human infections there were due to direct exposure to tissues and secretions from infected horses. Nipah virus caused a relatively mild disease in pigs in Malaysia and Singapore. Nipah virus was transmitted to humans, cats, and dogs through close contact with infected pigs.

How are Hendra and Nipah viruses transmitted to humans?

Pig farm in Malaysia, 1999. In Australia, humans became ill after exposure to body fluids and excretions of horses infected with Hendra virus. In Malaysia and Singapore, humans were infected with Nipah virus through close contact with infected pigs.

gharris – at 01:26

Only three human cases of Hendra virus disease have been recognized. Two of the three individuals known to be infected had a respiratory illness with severe flu-like signs and symptoms. Infection with Nipah virus was associated with an encephalitis (inflammation of the brain) characterized by fever and drowsiness and more serious central nervous system disease, such as coma, seizures, and inability to maintain breathing.

Illness with Nipah virus begins with 3–14 days of fever and headache. This is followed by drowsiness and disorientation characterized by mental confusion. These signs and symptoms can progress to coma within 24–48 hours. Some patients have had a respiratory illness during the early part of their infections.

Homesteader – at 08:50

Still looking for a Tropical Disease Doc with experience in Malaria Outbreaks to comment.

Tom DVM – at 09:00

gharris. Wow!! That was quite a piece of detective work. Thanks for the nice summary on emerging diseases and other information.

Pixie – at 09:05

gharris: One of the news stories from Nepal did speculate that it might be Nipah virus. I’ll see if I can find out which one and who said it.

Pixie – at 09:14

Comment: Ok, WHO is headed to the Nepalgunj area. From DennisC’s post at 22:22: http://tinyurl.com/y4gdrj

According to him, three teams from Kathmandu - one each from National Public Health Laboratory, EDCD, Teku Tropical Disease Control, and an expert from World Health Organization (WHO) have already gone to the site. Similarly, a team from Hetauda Vector Born Disease Research and Training Center, a team of Malaria experts, besides four teams from the district are in the affected area.

<snip>

Meanwhile, a report from Banke said medicines and test kits required for the treatment of malaria has reached the district headquarters Tuesday. According to District Public Health Office, Banke, the medical team sent from Kathmandu is yet to arrive.

Tom DVM – at 09:33

I remember the emergence of the Hendra virus in Australia in 1994 very well. The farm owner, workers and the attending veterinarian died and it took a while to isolate this completely new virus.

In a sense every veterinarian remembers it because it was the point at which an age of innocence ended. Up until that point, zoonotic diseases seemed quite remote and in most cases zoonotic diseases (diseases humans can get from animals) were treatable and relatively mild.

The Australian case proved that all previous assumptions were suspect.

I believe the mortality rate for both these viruses is extremely high if not 100% and Nipah virus should be in any list of rule outs and it has been mentioned as a future pandemic risk along with H5N1.

beehiver – at 09:47

This is from a recently published research article on a Nipah/Hendra outbreak, suggesting H2H is possible, and creating concern whether these viruses are also mutating.

Nipah/Hendra virus outbreak in Siliguri, West Bengal, India in 2001. Indian J Med Res. 2006 Apr;123(4):553–60. Harit AK, et al.

[from abstract]…”An outbreak of acute encephalitis occurred in Siliguri (West Bengal) town of India between January 31 and February 23, 2001…A total of 66 probable cases and 45 deaths were reported. Epidemiological linkages between cases point towards person-to-person transmission and incubation period of around 10 days. There was neither any concurrent illness in animals nor was there any exposure of cases to animals. Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, USA concluded on the basis of tests carried out on serum specimen from four cases and two contacts that the causative pathogen appears to be Nipah/ Hendra or closely related virus.”

http://tinyurl.com/y4tl4l


A couple other articles suggested that Nipah and Hendra may be emerging human pathogens. Here is one.

Hendra and Nipah viruses: pathogenesis and therapeutics. Curr Mol Med. 2005 Dec;5(8):805–16. Eaton BT, et al.

[Abstract] “Within the past decade a number of new zoonotic paramyxoviruses emerged from flying foxes to cause serious disease outbreaks in man and livestock. Hendra virus was the cause of fatal infections of horses and man in Australia in 1994, 1999 and 2004. Nipah virus caused encephalitis in humans both in Malaysia in 1998/99, following silent spread of the virus in the pig population, and in Bangladesh from 2001 to 2004 probably as a result of direct bat to human transmission and spread within the human population. Hendra and Nipah viruses are highly pathogenic in humans with case fatality rates of 40% to 70%. Their genetic constitution, virulence and wide host range make them unique paramyxoviruses and they have been given Biosecurity Level 4 status in a new genus Henipavirus within the family Paramyxoviridae. Recent studies on the virulence, host range and cell tropisms of henipaviruses provide insights into the unique biological properties of these emerging human pathogens and suggest approaches for vaccine development and therapeutic countermeasures.”

beehiver – at 09:51

Sorry, here is url for the second Nipah/Hendra article posted by me above (morning brain!).

http://tinyurl.com/vpto3

Sniffles – at 09:57

Do the Hendra and Nipah viruses have the ability to spread h2h? If not, how would hundreds of people potentially be infected with this virus (if that is what we are debating)? Do the viruses need a mammalian vector to spread? The geography of these clusters of “mystery illness” seems to be fairly large to be able to spread to at least one person in each household in so many villages over a relatively short period of time if it is not h2h related. Any thoughts?

Homesteader – at 10:02

Sniffles,

What you point out is why I’m looking for comments from a specialist in Tropical Diseases with Malaria experience. The question being is the Banke outbreak appear to be typical for Cerebral Malaria or not? Remembering that the weather there has not been maximally conducive to mosquito activity.

DennisCat 10:11

This one seems like food poisoning

More than 250 people became sick after dining together in southeast Nepal, local Kantipur F.M. Radio reported on Thursday. The victims from Rampurbirta village of Siraha district had dinner together after a ceremony memorizing a dead villager. Ratan Kumar Das, director at the Public Health Office of Siraha, said the food poisoning was probably caused by the pickle they ate’. A medical team led by Das to treat the villagers has returned to district headquarters as the crisis started to calm down.

http://tinyurl.com/y27a5n

Tom DVM – at 10:15

Beehiver. Thanks In five or six posts, you and gharris have given the reader a third year veterinary school summary of two emerging zoonotic diseases.

The level of scientific discourse on flu wiki is a wonderful thing. /:0)

Sniffles – at 10:18

DennisC – at 10:11 Did all 250 ill people eat pickles? I guess I do not always take articles at full value anymore and totally believe everything stated. I remember the Karo cluster starting out as food poisoning from a family gathering….

beehiver – at 10:54

Tom at 10:15, The level of scientific discourse on flu wiki is a wonderful thing.

Tom I am walking around here this morning feeling the exact same thing, it is such an incredible pleasure to be working with this group, with all the input of some great people…thank you all so much for quickly helping to shine light on the current issues. Not just this thread but so many others too. In the course of only some hours we’ve been able to pull valuable info together, this is making me high today, LOL, this pleasure of working together…and fueling a small hope that maybe some serious problems can be headed off in the future thanks to all this education. Sorry for the off-topic but you all are the greatest…

Jewel – at 12:33

Oh my gosh, between Nipah, Hendra, malaria, Morgellons, H5N1, Hanta, Ebola, SARS, etc., etc., etc. it is a wonder any of us are alive.

aurora – at 13:05

“Do the Hendra and Nipah viruses have the ability to spread h2h? If not, how would hundreds of people potentially be infected with this virus (if that is what we are debating)? Do the viruses need a mammalian vector to spread?”

This is from 1996 and it was a small study, but it appears that Hendra spreads easily cat to cat…

“To assess the susceptibility of cats to equine morbillivirus (EMV)” {Hendra) “by direct administration of the virus by subcutaneous, intra-nasal or oral routes, and following exposure to infected cats….

…RESULTS: All cats administered the virus by subcutaneous, intra-nasal or oral routes became infected and developed the disease within 4 to 8 days. One of two cats in contact with affected cats also developed the disease, but two cats kept near to affected cats did not become infected…”

“CONCLUSION: This is the first demonstration that animals can be infected with EMV by non-parenteral means, that the virus can transmit naturally between animals and confirms other reports of the similarity of EMV disease in horses and cats.”

http://tinyurl.com/ycce63

FrenchieGirlat 13:05

Nipah, Hendra, and bats, yet again…

Beyond Singapore, Malaysia and Australia, do we know what is, presently, the geographical spread of these horrors? Are they expanding their territories?

enza – at 13:19

Thanks for all the effort here.

Okieman – at 20:26

12 malaria patients await rescue

Himalayan News Service Banke, November 2:

Lack of transport facility has threatened the lives of cerebral malaria patients in remote villages of Banke. Teams of medical experts reached the villages yesterday and have started conducting tests and treatment. However, 12 patients whom they had referred for special treatment in Nepalgunj have not been able to go there due to lack of transport facility.

<snip>

Director General of the Department of Health, Dr Mahendrakeshari Chhetri, expressed hope that they would be able to control the disease soon. “We have dispatched enough equipment and medicines for the villages,” he said, adding that the remoteness of the villages and the Rapti river has affected the treatment process. Malaria was detected in 82 of the 255 blood samples. Of them 39 were found to have P Falsiperam and 43 were infected with P Vivex malaria. An experts’ team headed by Dr Suman Thapa has set up health camps in Fattehpur, Nairanapur and Holiya VDCs.

http://tinyurl.com/y8zol8

DennisCat 20:36

Mystery illness ‘could be Herpes Encephalitis

“…could not confirm the diagnosis until they received received the results of blood tests sent to laboratories in Germany and the UK, expected today….

He also said that ministry officials suspected that the boy died of Herpes Encephalitis, a viral infection characterised by high fever, seizures and depressed level of consciousness….

http://tinyurl.com/ykerb7

Pixie – at 21:29

Herpes Encephalitis was one of the alternate diagnoses they had considered for Mama Komariah (67), who recently died in Indonesia. She was tested multiple times for H5N1 without clear results and after her spinal fluid was sampled they stated she was H5N1 positive.

Sniffles – at 22:14

This is an editorial from the Kathmandu Post. I posted it in its entirety because cutting parts of it out to post would make it too difficult to read. After I read it, I had more questions than answers:

Dengue threat

By Dr Som P Pudasaini

The dengue virus, which recently threatened India’s West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh states sharing border with Nepal, should have caught Nepal’s attention. Although media had warned of possible dengue onslaughts on the districts bordering Indian states, the government ruled out any threat of dengue virus to Nepal. Unfortunately, the sheer lackadaisical approach has now given the government a wake-up call. In Banke district alone, nine cases of dengue have been confirmed so far. The death toll in Bardiya and other districts has crossed 36 in less than one month. And the number of patients admitted to various hospitals is increasing. The doctors who examined the patients at Nepalgunj Teaching Hospital have also admitted that dengue has now entered Nepal. Some government doctors seem to have been baffled when patients complain of body ache, shivering and sudden unconsciousness.

What is ridiculous is the way the doctors attended a Maoist-organized meeting in Nepalgunj amid the dengue onslaught. Bheri Zonal Hospital in Nepalgunj had virtually no doctors throughout Wednesday. The 12-patients who died of the “unknown” disease at Bheri Zonal Hospital last week certainly shows how the government doctors perform their duty. The doctors of Bheri Zonal Hospital have claimed the disease as “unknown”, while Nepalgunj Teaching Hospital has confirmed it a dengue virus. Is it because the government hospitals have no laboratory to examine the diseases? How could the doctors of Nepalgunj Teaching Hospital confirm it so soon? The diseases cited by the chief of the Epidemiology and Disease Control Division (EDCD) now raise some doubt. The EDCD chief-examined diseases may not be typhoid, Japanese Encephalitis, Falci Farum malaria and anemia, as he claims. Such medical examination may mislead health personnel.

The unknown disease has threatened the VDCs on the bank of the Rapti River. Many patients of Phattepur, Gangapur, Nagaikapur and Hardawai VDCs of Banke and Bardiya districts have been admitted to Indian hospitals across the border. Now the disease has spread to other adjoining VDCs surging in the form of new epidemic. The Ministry of Health has not confirmed yet whether the unknown disease is really dengue, though the government sent-medical teams had collected the blood samples four days ago. The delay in disclosing the details of the disease has claimed more lives and has not helped the patients. Besides, the government also failed to dispatch the medicines and medical teams on time to the unknown disease-hit VDCs. Above all, the Maoists cannot invite doctors forcefully for their meetings. They should realize that patients need doctors more than the “intolerant” Maoists for their gatherings.

http://www.kantipuronline.com/kolnews.php?&nid=90207

Anon_451 – at 22:27

Sounds like some people are telling the doctors what they are to find and what they are not to find. Hide lie and deceive as long as possible.

03 November 2006

Oremus – at 02:52

Hmmmmm

Disease diagnosed as Cerebral Malaria, 31 died, 700 affected

NEPALGUNJ, Nov. 2: The unidentified epidemic that spread in five VDCs of Banke district across the Rapti River has been identified as cerebral malaria infected from a plus modem falsifoam, a virus.

The team of doctors including Epidemiologists deployed by the Health Ministry identified the disease after examining blood test from the locals.

Around 31 died and other above 700 locals have been affected from the epidemic, according to District Public Health Office, Banke.

The team of doctors that came from Kathmandu and medical persons of local Bheri zonal hospital and Nepalgunj medical college have been serving those affected from pandemic in the area.

Local political parties, Nepal Tarun Dal and local clubs are also serving in the disease-ridden area.

Meanwhile in Kathmandu, the Nepali Congress (Democratic) has drawn attention of the government and concerned sides to adopt all necessary measures to take the unknown epidemic disease that broke out in five VDCs of Banke district across the Rapti River under control and to provide treatment to all those affected.

The demise of around 36 locals from the mystery disease has grieved the party, reads the press release issued by the NC (D).

The press release also stated that the severe affect of the disease seen in a large number of people, lack of their necessary treatment, unidentified state of disease and its outbreak as a epidemic has saddened enough the party.

Earlier, Nepalgunj, a team of Epidemeology and Disease Control Division, Kathmandu including specialists has reached in five VDCs of Banke district across the Rapti river to carry out research and study regarding an unknown disease that broke out in the VDCs and to provide health check ups and treatment to the locals.

A 11-member medical team including World Health Organization (WHO) Epidemiologist Dr. Suman Thapa, medical persons from Health Service Department and chief advisor of Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Health Dr Mahesh Makey would carry out blood tests of those affected from the unidentified disease.

In addition to the team, doctors of local Bheri Zonal Hospital Dr. Usha Shah, Dr. Binod khanal, Dr. Sarbesh Sharma including medical persons of district public health office have also been serving in the disease-ridden area.

The mystery disease which so far claimed 24 lives is expected to be identified till tomorrow. The disease reportedly affected around 4000 locals of five VDCs, phattepur, Matehiya, Gangapur, Holiya and Narainapur of the district.

The arrangement of transport vehicles have been made to take the disease affected locals who were refereed to the hospitals, according to district public Health Office.

Various political parties and local social organizations have also been assisting in the disease-ridden area.

Meanwhile in Dhading, local people of Pathak village of Naubise VDC-7 have been terrified after incident of sting by an unknown poisonous insect has been increasing.

One woman has, already, been killed while three others have been seriously injured following the insect’s bite.

The wife of Kedar Bhatta died while the wife of Madhu Pathak, the wife of Kancha Damai and Subadra Pathak have been injured.

Two others�Krishna Kumar Upreti and the wife of Nawaraj Regmi are currently undergoing treatment at Teku Hospital in Kathmandu.

The insect has been attacking only the women who go to the forest to collect fodder and firewood.

The sting of the insect leads to pain as that of a hornet sting, swelling of the area, vomiting and unconsciousness. Amount of poison has been found in the blood test of the victims, it is stated.

Likewise in Inaruwa, father and son in Bharaul VDC of Sunsari district died in the same day.

The deceased has been identified as Krishna Bahadur Thapa (father), 65, and Hari Bahadur Thapa (son), 30, locals of Kalabanja, said former VDC vice-chairman Nilam Khanal.

Hari who was undergoing treatment in Bharatpur hospital returned home to meet his father suffering from cancer. Son Thapa has also been suffering from Brain Tumor The last ritual of both father and son was performed in the bank of the Sapta Koshi river in Chatara.

crfullmoon – at 04:18

“The press release also stated that the severe affect of the disease seen in a large number of people, lack of their necessary treatment, unidentified state of disease and its outbreak as a epidemic has saddened enough the party”

:-(

“Above all, the Maoists cannot invite doctors forcefully for their meetings.” Ungood.

(And it’s awful that the women are getting killed by insect stings.)

Pixie – at 06:21

From ProMedmail:

Nov. 2, 2006 / http://tinyurl.com/yhu6wq

UNDIAGNOSED DEATHS - NEPAL (BANKE) (02): MALARIA SUSPECTED

The mystery disease that has spread in some villages of Banke district in mid-western Nepal for the past 2 weeks was diagnosed as cerebral malaria, The Himalayan Times reported on Thursday [2 Nov 2006].

Talking to the daily, advisor to the Health Ministry Mahesh Maskey said a medical team reached the affected villages with essential equipment and medicines on Wednesday [1 Nov 2006] to examine the patients.

“The disease was diagnosed as cerebral malaria (a severe type of malaria), after examining blood samples of some patients,” Maskey said. Fifteen of the patients were found infected with malaria.

<snip>

Homesteader – at 06:42

What were the other patients diagnosed with? And how many other patients were there? Previous reports dated 10/31 stated the medical team(s?)reached the villages on 10/31 and made the diagnosis that day in time to be reported in the article.

IMHO: They need to get their stories straight.

beehiver – at 09:06

The article posted by Oremus at 2:52 stated -

The unidentified epidemic that spread in five VDCs of Banke district across the Rapti River has been identified as cerebral malaria infected from a plus modem falsifoam, a virus.

Plasmodium falciparum is not a virus…

Sniffles – at 09:23

In the article posted by Oremus – at 02:52, it stated:

“The mystery disease which so far claimed 24 lives is expected to be identified till tomorrow. The disease reportedly affected around 4000 locals of five VDCs, phattepur, Matehiya, Gangapur, Holiya and Narainapur of the district.”

I would take that to mean they are guessing it is cerebral malaria. They do not have the test results back to make a diagnosis, but it did not stop them from telling the world it was malaria.

Oremus – at 10:03

Sniffles – at 09:23

You got it.

TreasureIslandGalat 10:21

busy mosquitoes. they go from 300 to 400 to 500 to 4000 patients affected within a week’s time. one village after another being afflicted.

Okieman – at 11:08

November 3 news article. Quote is at the very bottom. This was at an address to the Nepal House of Representatives. You would think this guy would know what is going on. He continues to call it an unknown disease. I think the jury is still out concerning what this disease really is.

<snip>

Deputy Prime Minister and Health Minister Amik Sherchan informed the House of the deaths in several villages in Banke district following the spread of an unknown disease. He, however, said the government has no information about the spread of dengue.

http://www.nepalnews.com/archive/2006/nov/nov03/news05.php

Sniffles – at 11:52

12 malaria patients await rescue

Himalayan News Service Banke, November 2:

Lack of transport facility has threatened the lives of cerebral malaria patients in remote villages of Banke. Teams of medical experts reached the villages yesterday and have started conducting tests and treatment. However, 12 patients whom they had referred for special treatment in Nepalgunj have not been able to go there due to lack of transport facility. Head of the District Public Health Office, Banke, Jay Bahadur Karki, said medical teams had referred the malaria patients to Nepalgunj yesterday. The teams, however, could not be sure which villages those 12 patients were from. Advisor to the Health Ministry, Dr Mahesh Maskey, said they were working to bring the serious patients to Nepalgunj on a helicopter. “We are trying to ferry the patients to Nepalgunj but there is no helicopter in Nepalgunj at the moment,” Dr Maskey said. “I have talked to the Prime Minister on this regard but nothing has happened as yet,” he said. Meanwhile, Dr Usha Shah, chief of the Bheri zonal hospital told a press conference here that they would provide free treatment to malaria patients. Director General of the Department of Health, Dr Mahendrakeshari Chhetri, expressed hope that they would be able to control the disease soon. “We have dispatched enough equipment and medicines for the villages,” he said, adding that the remoteness of the villages and the Rapti river has affected the treatment process. Malaria was detected in 82 of the 255 blood samples. Of them 39 were found to have P Falsiperam and 43 were infected with P Vivex malaria. An experts’ team headed by Dr Suman Thapa has set up health camps in Fattehpur, Nairanapur and Holiya VDCs.

http://tinyurl.com/y8zol8

Pixie – at 12:01

TreasureIslandGal – at 10:21 busy mosquitoes. they go from 300 to 400 to 500 to 4000 patients affected within a week’s time. one village after another being afflicted.

That is very true, isn’t it? And the mosquitos are doing all this breeding and multiplying in fairly cool weather.

I decided to compose that summary, above, of everyone’s recent findings on Nepal after spending several hours sitting outside at a soccer match that evening. I was freezing by the end of it, the temperature was around 56 degrees F, and it certainly didn’t feel like mosquito weather to me.

Leo7 – at 12:05

Sounds to me like they have more mosquitoes than flies. Something may have extended their season and their hunting grounds—like the culling of millions of wild birds?

Pixie – at 14:25

Comment: Debate over the “mystery virus” in Banke district, Nepal, has reached the Nepalese House of Representatives where it is here characterized as being dengue or malaria.

Sherchan tells MPs about situation of dengue

2006–11–3 / http://tinyurl.com/y5aqt9

KATHMANDU, Nov. 2: Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Health and Population Amik Serchan has informed the House of Representatives (HOR) about the situation dengue and other epidemics in west Nepal.

Thirty-one people have died of dengue in three VDCs of Banke Holia, Fattepur and Gangapur the deaths of two are yet to be verified, Deputy Prime Minister Sherchan told the House.

A team of six doctors has reached the VDCs and blood tests of 521 persons showed malaria in 37 and malaria parasite in five. A WHO team has also reached the place and army and police teams are also going to the place.

“A doctor had presented a report 11 years ago saying there was dengue in the area, but the earlier governments failed to take any action,”Sherchan said. “However, no death by dengue was reported in the area and this time it has come in from India due to open border.?

Members during the Special Hour had questioned the government on what it was doing to the health problems in the western part of Nepal. They also raised questions and put forth their views regarding Nepal’s loss in the UN Security Council election, road accidents because of unmanaged transportation system, closure of Tatopani border, agitation of temporary teachers, problems of the Melamchi Water Project and other issues.

<snip>

Betty – at 14:29

Why are they sending army and police with the WHO??? Kind of sounds like the movie “Outbreak”, doesn’t it?

JR – at 14:34

“A WHO team has also reached the place and army and police teams are also going to the place.”

That is one heck of a lot of fire power for a dengue/malaria outbreak.

TreasureIslandGalat 14:44

Yeah, I thought that seemed VERY strange as well. Aren’t these simple, remote villagers? And heck, apparently they are all very sick or else caring for a very sick person. Doesn’t sound like a very “dangerous” group that would require military intervention.

Maybe the police and military will be used more to maintain a quarantine and keep others OUT until they get a good handle on this.

Jumping from 300 to 4000 people in a week doesn’t sound like dengue or malaria in my book.

Pixie – at 15:20

Very important developments in Banke district, Nepal, from above, at 14:25:

anonymous – at 15:20

Could you provide a link for the 4000 number? The most I’ve seen so far is 700.

anonymous – at 15:22

Never mind, it was in article I posted. Embarrassing.

Oremus – at 15:23

that was me

TreasureIslandGalat 15:24

“Could you provide a link for the 4000 number? The most I’ve seen so far is 700.”

-See Oremus – at 02:52. The story is posted and about 3/4 of the way down there is this paragraph:

“The mystery disease which so far claimed 24 lives is expected to be identified till tomorrow. The disease reportedly affected around 4000 locals of five VDCs, phattepur, Matehiya, Gangapur, Holiya and Narainapur of the district.

TreasureIslandGalat 15:25

hahaha! :D

that was a nice way of lightening up this thread!

nothing like a brain fart for a good chuckle!

Okieman – at 15:28

Try reconciling the Pixie – at 14:25 post with my Okieman – at 11:08 post.

Things don’t add up.

Sending the army and police does not sound good.

Watch what they do, not what they say.

Pixie – at 15:28

That 4000 number might have been a typo in the Nepali news report. It might have been meant to read “400,” since they talk about a total of 700 overal, and then break it down by district.

Hopefully it is a typo.

TreasureIslandGalat 15:35

a 400 typo doesn’t bring in the army. a 4000 reality would.

Sniffles – at 15:40

TreasureIslandGal – at 15:35 a 400 typo doesn’t bring in the army. a 4000 reality would.

That was my thought also. They deal with infectious disease all the time in this part of the world. I am sure they do not regularly send in WHO, police, and the military for a few hundred cases of malaria in a relatively remote area of their country. This does not pass the smell test for me.

Okieman – at 15:44

Got them pegged now. Go to this link. It describes “The Rising Nepal” (the newspaper linked in Pixie’s 14:25 post) as being a government owned paper.

http://www.nepalhomepage.com/dir/news/

treyfish – at 15:52

It says it has affected 4000.And a WHO epidemiologist is taking orders for sandwiches.

Pixie – at 15:57

Hi Treyfish! Yeah, it says 4000. And it’s from the gov. newspaper. Best that somebody proofread that before publication or that extra zero could cause them no little trouble.

I was just trying to be optimistic….

under the radar – at 16:03

I can’t find this article. Can someone copy/paste it or something?

DennisCat 16:06

under the radar – at 16:03 I think this is the one we are talking about (the 4000)

it is above at: Oremus – at 02:52 (Nov 3)

Pixie – at 16:07

The 4000 number was stated in an article in the Rising Nepal site:

From Oremus at 2:52 http://tinyurl.com/yf4twv :

The mystery disease which so far claimed 24 lives is expected to be identified till tomorrow. The disease reportedly affected around 4000 locals of five VDCs, phattepur, Matehiya, Gangapur, Holiya and Narainapur of the district.

under the radar – at 16:11

Thank you, I see it now :)

DennisCat 16:14

i find the part about

“The insect has been attacking only the women who go to the forest to collect fodder and firewood. The sting of the insect leads to pain as that of a hornet sting, swelling of the area, vomiting and unconsciousness. Amount of poison has been found in the blood test of the victims, it is stated.”

Is there any chance that a Type A virus could be spread by an insect?? Anyone here know? I know that one report from Indo was saying that flys could transfer the virus (mechanical vector) but what about mosquitoes? (????)

treyfish – at 16:15

Pixie,if i run my 3 computers,tied together with wires and duct tape,3 mice and and keys,3monitors, wired to sat and phoneline……with 5 widows open to news pages on each one…. i might be able to keep up with ya!HOW DO YOU DO IT??!! Dont dare me either or i mite try!Not to leave anyone out ..okieman has a sis to help and they sre doing a helluva job!thank you each and every one.

Grace RN – at 16:16

re: “WHO epidemiologist is taking orders for sandwiches”

I’d watch to see if any chicken salad was ordered. :/

Pixie – at 16:16

Hey, Trey - today I’m also doing a birthday party for a 7yo at the same time! :-)

fishingmap – at 16:19

hope this doesn’t scroll

article link

The mystery disease which so far claimed 24 lives is expected to be identified till tomorrow. The disease reportedly affected around 4000 locals of five VDCs, phattepur, Matehiya, Gangapur, Holiya and Narainapur of the district.

Leo7 – at 16:20

For the record I want to point out two things.

1. The mosquito causing dengue and the mosquito carrier for malaria are different breeds. The Aedes mosquito carrys dengue and yellow fever (viral). The anopheles mosquito transmits a parasite that is carried in the red blood cells.

2. Once you have malaria, as I’m sure all these people have already had malaria because its endemic there, you won’t test positive. So can’t we conclude that all will have the parasites except for newborns? They adapt to the parasites or they die right? They are afterall not taking daily quinine tablets are they? In cerebral malaria they have stiff necks, and progress to a unarousable coma. The cerebral malaria is caused of clogging of the brain’s micro circulation by parasitized red blood cells. The brain shuts down, and the people die. What doesn’t make sense is a sudden epidemic of cerebral malaria. Sure it’s a consequence of malaria especially in children but sudden outbreaks? Not unless malaria is undergoing some new changes like dengue.

Okieman – at 16:26

DennisC – at 16:14

Read the article a little closer. The part about insects biting/stinging is in a different location in Nepal and unrelated to that in Banke.

Pixie – at 16:28

DennisC - at 16:13: The sting of the insect leads to pain as that of a hornet sting, swelling of the area, vomiting and unconsciousness.

Any EMT would say that those reactions are not common, but are precisely typical of someone having a severe allergic reaction to an insect sting. One person’s reaction like that would not be atypical, but a bunch of reactions like that in unrealted people would be rare.

crfullmoon – at 16:28

Want to see a couple of photos taken in Bardiya, July 2006?

:-(

Can’t find any flickr photos taken in Banke just now, but older photos of the Rapti riverbank show elephants, water buffalo and children.

Found someone who’s in Nepal and has Sept. photos from Nepalgunj

Commonground – at 16:30

Right, I just figured that out. Two locations.

DennisCat 16:31

Okieman – at 16:26

Thanks, I wasn’t seeing that.

treyfish – at 16:35

hahahahaah!!daang you go girl!hahah! http://tinyurl.com/sgcg8 This one from yestersay says 400 affected.

Mystery disease kills 20 in Nepal November 2, 2006

   E-Mail This        Print This        

A Nepali patient ® waits for treatment in the emergency ward of Nepal’s Bir Hospital in Kathmandu. At least 20 people have died of an unidentified disease over the past two weeks in west Nepal.

At least 20 people have died of an unidentified disease over the past two weeks in west Nepal.

“The outbreak of disease has killed 20 people, most of them elderly and children, and over 400 have been affected in three villages in Banke district,” said Jaya Bahadur Karki, chief of the public health office in the region Tuesday, 510 kilometres (320 miles) west of Kathmandu.

“The symptoms of the disease include headache, high fever, shivering and fainting. The health workers have not been able to identify the disease properly,” Karki said, adding the affected area had “poor hygiene habits and sanitation facilities”.

Local media Tuesday reported that the disease has killed at least 36 people in the district.

Chief district officer Narendra Raj Sharman told AFP a medical team has already been sent to the area to diagnose the disease and collected blood samples of more than 200 patients.

Hundreds of people die every year in Nepal from pneumonia, diarrhoea and tuberculosis.

Copyright

DennisCat 16:38

This thing is beginging to lood serious. Does anyone here know some one in Nepal? This is looking just about what I thought the start would look like- A bunch of cases that keeps growing day after day in a remote place where the health care system is little or non-existent. Even the rate of growth is about right. Notice that there was even a pig die off in Nepal back in Mar and notice what they said then “The disease is believed to be air borne”:

http://tinyurl.com/egp5r

treyfish – at 16:43

woops!wrong mouse!

Leo7 – at 16:48

Dennis C:

Are you saving all those old articles? Slows my computer down. I agree with you at 16:38-Nepal is the perfect spot, rural but independent, haven for smuggling across the border, and those poor shepards keeling over was almost exactly like Barry described. Like I said before, glad you started this thread. Looks like they’re going to try real hard to contain whatever it turns out to be.

Pixie – at 16:52

Dennis C:

And I really didn’t like the story that Witness posted in mid-August about an epidemic in Central Nepal with very, very, worrying symptoms that had begun in June and was still ongoing. http://tinyurl.com/y69e4u

“Unprecedented epidemic of an unidentified disease has killed at least 14 people, including seven children, in Netini VDC, a far eastern village of the district [central Nepal], in the past two weeks. The disease, which was first detected in dogs and chicken in the last week of June, had started spreading to humans. Major symptoms of the disease are high fever together with bleeding from nose and mouth at the time of death.” http://tinyurl.com/y69e4u

Commonground – at 16:54

Dennis C - Thank you so much for saving those articles.

Commonground – at 16:56

Gee Pixie at 16:52 - I never read that article that Witness posted. Wish I hadn’t now. Oh my.

Pixie – at 16:57

Commonground - at 16:56

We know too much, don’t we?

DennisCat 17:05

Leo7 – at 16:48

I don’t really save them all, just some. I have an external drive for such things. I don’t want the “system” to try slip things by with selective memory. I have my “good stuff” = survival on a flash drive with a copy flash drive in my bug out bag. (although I don’t think I will ever bug out except for a forest fire).

I am hoping this will all be a false alarm. But as I said before,Nepal has all the earmarks of the start of something (just what, I don’t know). I hope it is just a result of their flood back at the first of Aug and not what we fear.

Sniffles – at 17:12

Is it possible to get a map of the general area and start plotting red dots where these outbreaks in Nepal and India are taking place? (I am sorry, but I have a family funeral to attend this weekend and can’t do this) I think it would be important to “see” the geography of this as it plays out. Also I saw (sorry - forgot to grab the link as I was shutting my office computer down) that Pakistan is also having a similar “mystery” type of illness going on and is offering to pay half of the malaria confirmation test if people go to the hospital to be tested. I guess that the test is too expensive for most people to afford, so they are either not seeing an MD at all or are having the MD’s just assume it is malaria and are treating the patients for it without a confirmatory test.

DennisCat 17:16

Pixie – at 16:52

So we had pigs die in Mar. Dogs and chickens in June- then a “few” people in mid Aug, and now we have 4000 sick at the first of Nov.

Now if I put the numbers to the 14 in mid Aug and 4000 now, that is an increase of 285 time or about 2^8 in 10 weeks or so. IF it is all the same problem, we are taking a doubling every week or so and IF it has about a week incubation time, then we are talking an R0 of around 2. Not good. Hopefully not all these cases are the same and are just complications from their Aug flood.

I think I will go work on the greenhouse and relax.

Okieman – at 17:39

Sniffles – at 17:12

Already ahead of you on trying to get a map put together. I tried to do so last night. Unfortunately the data set I am using does not have most of the populatated places (the villages) that are mentioned in the news articles. I will continue to try to put something together. When I do, I will email it to DemFromCT for posting here on the fluwiki forum.

Okieman – at 19:16

Until I can find better to download for use in ArcView, you can use the system that is at this link to see where the villages mentioned in the news articles are located. It is interesting that many of them are linked by a gravel road.

Directions:

Select Banke District

Select the map features, all of them

Select pdf

http://www.digitalhimalaya.com/collections/nepalmaps/

Okieman – at 19:18

Oh yeah, when the pdf comes up change it from 100% size to 50% size.

Jane – at 19:40

I thought it was clarified to be 400. Wasn’t it? (Treyfish at 16:35)

anonymous et al – at 20:14

Pixie et al. - so, out of blood taken from and tested from 521 people, 479 have NOT come back as infected with malaria? Having difficulty wording this but I’ll try - how is an RO calculated when there is more than 1 pathogen that is endemic in the population and yet there seems to have to be some other(s) pathogens present at the same time, perhaps mixing with endemic pathogen? Quite mixed up, perhaps I am. And I’m not the cat in the hat. Thanks for all that each of you do.

Anon_451 – at 20:26

DennisC – at 17:16 We need to watch this very close. If your numbers are right then that tracks with all the numbers I have put together and I would concur with your RO Rate. Really need to know what this is.

Does anyone know anyone in Nepal where we can get some first hand information?

Pixie – at 20:36

anonymous et al - 20:14

We’re all trying to figure it out. You are right that there are a lot of endemic background diseases in these areas. And, as Leo7 pointed out, with malaria it is probable that everybody around Banke has been exposed to malaria to some degree or another (one reason travelers to these areas are so susceptible is that we have zero prior exposure and immunity, unlike the local population). So, as Leo7 says, many people in this aresa should test positive for malaria since it is so endemic and they have been exposed since early childhood. And, of course, they can have latent malaria while they also have another infection too at the same time, making attempts to figure out what is happening very difficult.

Calculating an R0 would be easier if the potential dual illness did not present with very similar symptoms, I suppose. But dengue, malaria, influenza (and a few other illnesses), all present with symptoms that could be confused, at least initially. If the viruses have changed their symptomatic presentation in any way, all bets are off. Right now it does not look like they are able to easily diagnose either dengue or malaria in dengue and malaria endemic areas in Nepal (they really should be familiar with both of those presentations at the top teaching hospitals), which makes some of us here wonder what has changed. Also, if a few people are diagnosed with dengue or malaria, it will be quickly assumed that the vast majority of others in an epidemic area are infected with the same thing if they present with symptoms that are at all similar. Here, in the winter, in the middle of flu season, most physcians will not bother to test you for flu A or B if they know they are in the midst of a seasonal flu epidemic - if you have a fever and feel like you were run over with a truck, they will assume you have it. The same assumptions are operative elsewhere.

I’m very curious about the 479 people who have NOT come back as infected with malaria too. Are they not done working on the sample batch yet? Or are these true negatives?

Cygnet – at 20:42

Official state newspaper says 4,000. Maybe someone can e-mail the editor asking them to verify the number? (My e-mail has the potential to be DOWN this weekend due to a server upgrade in progress or I’d do it.)

Dunno about you guys, but I’m concerned enough about this to make a prep run this weekend to buy a few things I’ve been putting off. If this turns out to be a bad case of common cold/exaggeration, no biggie; I’ll have the preps I need for when TS DOES hit the fan.

However, if TS HAS HTF here … well, everyone on this board can draw their own conclusions, I think, at this point.

Tiger Lily – at 21:07

The following UN website (IRIN News dot org)provides a gallery of photos of the Nepal flooding and the villagers who live in the Banke district. Click on the photo that says “Nepal Flood Crisis” (right hand side)

http://tinyurl.com/y4ck83

Pixie – at 21:15

Okieman - at 19:16

That map is incredible. [http://tinyurl.com/ymow2v ] How you found a map that goes to the level of villages and shows the footpaths, I don’t know. Genius, Okieman!

Looking at the map, the towns mentioned in the reports are all in a line, connected by footpaths as you said. The towns go, in order, from West to East, or Left to Right:

Phattepur - Holiya - Gangapur - Matehiya - Narainapur

Right now, the problem is really localized. You could contain it with the right measures (army/police). The problems, for now, seem to be concentrated in this particular corner of Banke district:

The mystery disease which so far claimed 24 lives is expected to be identified till tomorrow. The disease reportedly affected around 4000 locals of five VDCs, phattepur, Matehiya, Gangapur, Holiya and Narainapur of the district. http://tinyurl.com/yf4twv

Thirty-one people have died……in three VDCs of Banke Holia, Fattepur and Gangapur http://tinyurl.com/y5aqt9

Pixie – at 21:21

ReliefWeb has a very good map of the areas affected by the August floods in Banke district.

The towns mentioned where this epidemic is localized and where the people died from the “mystery illneess” recently (Phattepur, Holiyaj, Gangapur, Matehiya, Narainapur)are most definitely in the area most affected by those floods, as is clearly shown on the ReliefWeb map:

http://tinyurl.com/u3qj2

anonymous et al – at 21:28

Tiger Lily - 21:07

Just looking at the pics from the “Nepal Food Crisis”! Really noticing the caption under photo 10.

“Due to hunger, many families are digging out the wheat stocks from the wet ground and grinding the mud-filled wheat for food. © Naresh Newar/IRIN “

Just imagining the possibilities of all kind of disease transmission from that mud - whether they’re eating it, wading in it, or even inhaling the grindings in the process.

Should probably change my name to Ms.D.Pressed

P.S. Thanks Pixie

Pixie – at 21:34

The overall population of the Banke district, Nepal, is around 400,000.

Tiger Lilly - at 21:07:

Thanks for the photos and a view of the real people. All that disruption and malnutrition would really leave them wide open to any variety of disease.

Grace RN – at 22:09

“grinding the mud-filled wheat for food.”

What a horrible situation. We worry about ourselves regressing to 1900′s standard of living and these poor people are barely surviving by Black Plague standards. In 2006.

I will not complain again..I will not complain again….

Okieman – at 22:21

anonymous et al – at 21:28

“Due to hunger, many families are digging out the wheat stocks from the wet ground and grinding the mud-filled wheat for food. © Naresh Newar/IRIN “

There is a chance you may have put your finger on what is occuring in Banke. Wheat is susceptible to a fungus called Ergot. In the U.S. measures are taken to keep it out of the human food supply and animal’s feed supply. It can be more prevelant during humid or flood weather events. Here is a link to wikipedia if you want to learn more:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ergot

anonymous – at 22:45

This may also cause insanity, convulsions, or death, due to limited circulation to the brain. Other symptoms include strong uterine contractions, nausea, seizures, and unconsciousness

Grace RN – at 22:53

RE: THE AUG 18, 2006 REPORT

“The disease, which was first detected in dogs and chicken in the last week of June, had started spreading to humans.

Major symptoms of the disease are high fever together with bleeding from nose and mouth at the time of death.”

I am still not convinced this [Aug 18 report]wasn’t H5N1 because: dogs and chickens sick first, children sick, high fever and bleeding. IMHO, there is a good chance it was H5N1.

So any other victims of an unknown disease with similar symptoms arising from the same area is highly suspect for H5N1. For me anyway.

IMHO.

Okieman – at 23:10

Grace RN – at 22:53

I still think the verdict is out concerning what the disease is, but I do not believe the government in Nepal is going to very forthcoming with information. I just checked on-line news sites for any additional news. Nothing. Not only nothing new, but no mention of the “mystery disease” at all. If it is H5N1 then it will raise it’s ugly head again and there will be no hiding it.

I threw the Ergot theory (or some other grain fungus) out on the table because of the flooding.

LauraBat 23:28

Pixie and all others working hard on tracking this development - excellen job as always. This thread is like some kind of disease/CSI/mystery novel. Let’s hope it is malaria and nothing more ominous. Keep up the great work!

Michelle in OK – at 23:57

This is an interesting excerpt from Wikipedia regarding malaria:

“Parasitic Plasmodium species also infect birds, reptiles, monkeys, chimpanzees and rodents.[26]”

It doesn’t say anything about dogs or mules.

Link to Wikipedia

04 November 2006

janetn – at 00:44

One observation, if this was malaria they would have figured that out already. Its safe to say they have had time to run a battery of labs, and get the results. Its either something off the wall or they know what it is and arent saying anything IMO. Id give this till Monday then if we dont here what it is. Id say let the PPF go up a few notches. I hate it when we dont here anything and are left to speculate.

janetn – at 00:44

One observation, if this was malaria they would have figured that out already. Its safe to say they have had time to run a battery of labs, and get the results. Its either something off the wall or they know what it is and arent saying anything IMO. Id give this till Monday then if we dont here what it is. Id say let the PPF go up a few notches. I hate it when we dont hear anything and are left to speculate.

anon_22 – at 00:46

Hi all, I’ve just re-read this whole thread again, and everytime I want to make a point, someone else has made it a little further down! So there’s nothing original in my post here, just random thoughts.

It’s tragic but the reality is in large areas of the world, horrible infectious diseases that kill a lot of people are never properly diagnosed.

It could be anything, and it could be a combination of malaria, dengue, flu, or other infectious diseases that no one has thought to test for. Just cos they found malaria in a couple of people doesn’t really mean anything, cos a) the others could still be infected by something else, b) it could be an ‘incidental finding’ ie irrelevant to what the patient actually died of, or c) it could all just be something some official made up, to soothe everyone.

The locals don’t seem to buy that it’s malaria.

Dengue could look exactly the same as H5N1, clinically.

They need the army and police to go in cos large areas of Nepal are under the control of Maoist insurgents, and I doubt that any moderately high level official will go anywhere without army and police protection. So that doesn’t tell us anything,

DennisCat 00:57

Remember that there was a big flood back in Aug and people were having to swim around in water with human waste. This could still be anything. But we should watch very closely.

JWB – at 08:26

WOW!!

This is the first time I’ve looked at this thread. Started seeing it mentioned in other threads. Scary stuff. Great work!. I printed it out and got 45 pages!

Could someone here that’s been following this closely post a summary on a new thread “Nepal II” ?

Thanks!

Okieman – at 09:27

Indian envoy holds talks with Nepal PM

Shirish B Pradhan (PTI)

Kathmandu, November 4, 2006|18:15 IST

Indian Ambassador to Nepal Shiv Shanker Mukherjee on Saturday called on Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala and discussed the current political situation in the country, including the ongoing peace talks with the Maoists and the issue of the rebels’ arms management.

<snip>

http://tinyurl.com/ymhx8w


I have to wonder if that was all they discussed. Do you think the “mystery disease” of Banke District (on the Indian border) was also discussed.

What they do, not what they say.

Tiger Lily – at 10:47

Treatment Still Eludes Malaria Patients

THT Online Banke, November 4

Patients suffering from cerebral malaria patients across the Rapti river complained on Friday that treatment was still beyond their reach.

Meanwhile, 45-year-old Shantidevi Yadav of Holiya-1 died on Friday for want of medical treatment a local, Sohanlal Yadav, said over phone. Several malaria patients are awaiting treatment, he said. With Yadav’s death, the malaria toll in the last two weeks has climbed to 40.

Though physicians had referred 12 patients to the Bheri Zonal Hospital on Wednesday, saying the patients were at high risk, just one patient was brought to the hospital in a vehicle on Thursday. The District Public Health Office (DPHO) Banke does not even know where they are.

The DPHO said the patients could not be brought to the hospital as the affected areas were virtually inaccessible.

Chief of the DPHO Banke, Jaya Bahadur Karki, said the vehicle has been arranged for bringing the patients to the hospital. “Several people will be needed to bring the patients up to the Rapti river. “We cannot make such an arrangement,” he said, adding: “No one is cooperating with us to ferry the patients.”

Physicians said malaria patients will die if they are not treated at the earliest.

DPHO chief Karki said requests are being made for necessary cooperation to carry the patients, adding that a tractor will head for the Rapti river tomorrow to ferry the patients. He said a patient was rushed to the Bheri Zonal Hospital in a vehicle yesterday.

DPHO chief Karki, however, said: “A team of physicians from the Nepalgunj Medical College arrived in the malaria-affected areas on Friday. All the physicians are busy treating patients, he added.

http://tinyurl.com/woejn

Tiger Lily – at 11:23

ICU unit closed for want of docs

Himalayan News Service Birgunj, November 3:

The Intensive Care Unit (ICU) of the Birgunj-based Nara-yani Sub-Regional Hospital (NSRH) has been closed since October 30.

The unit was closed as senior doctors of the hospital — chief of the ICU Dr Arun Kumar Jha, Dr Birendra Pradhan and Dr Sushil Chaudhari — left for India to take part in the international conference of physicians, a source at the hospital said.

Due to the closure, needy patients have been forced to head for hospitals in Raksaul or the capital for treatment.

However, the hospital administration said the ICU had been closed from October 30 till November 12 for maintaining equipment and cleaning them. The ICU was also closed for four days during Tihar for cleaning it up, the source said. “As the equipment were not fumigated for a long time, clean-up was carried out by closing the service,” acting medical superintendent of the hospital Dr Lal Babu Yadav said.

“The ICU was closed after shifting two patients admitted to the unit to another ward of the hospital,” said a medical officer at the ICU.

“It is an act on negligence on the part of doctors to attend the conference by closing the sensitive unit,” said a former member of the Hospital Development Committee, Nagendra Chaudhari, adding: “Patients’ welfare was neglected by closing the unit in the name of absence of doctors”.

http://tinyurl.com/yk8uf6

Comment: This story seemed a little odd, but considering the local I assumed this hospital was out in a very rural location. However, after looking into the city of Birgunj I discovered this:

About Birgunj: Birgunj is situated about 3 KM from the Indian northern border Raxaul. It is a main entry point to Nepal from India for routes such as Calcutta and Patna. Majority of all the foreign goods shipped to Nepal by sea go through Calcutta-Haldia Port to Raxaul to Birgunj then reach to main cities like Kathmandu. Hence Birgunj is an important land entry point for goods to Nepal.

http://tinyurl.com/ygsxv4

DennisCat 11:31

Tiger Lily – at 11:23

If we take the “look at what they do and not what they say” approach- There is an outbreak of a mystery illness and the doctors decide to leave town and the hospital is taking the time to “fumigate”. What does that sound like?

Surely these are not connected. The problem with this Nepal story is that there is so little information and so much one can “read into” it.

Hummmm.

HIstory Lover – at 11:39

GraceRN @ 22:09 - Amen.

Tiger Lily – at 11:58

DennisC -at 11:31

“Surely these are not connected. The problem with this Nepal story is that there is so little information and so much one can “read into” it.”

I agree. Too many dots and not enough information.

IMO: Two weeks would be enough time for a pair of doctors to travel to a location where they could be trained on diagnostic techniques, use of new equipment, and two weeks would be an adequate amount of time to train on such equipment, as-well-as install said equipment, etc. etc.

I’m running late for a meeting. Gotta run.

Linda – at 12:16

From what I’m reading, if the dots are conected then they start in June with human illness and before that with animal illness. I don’t see how an August flood can connect in this unless it was a catalist of what was already happening?

MaMaat 12:25

Linda, flooding would give many more places for disease carrying mosquitos to breed in. Flooding would displace many people from their homes, destroy food stocks and make travel difficult if not impossible in some areas. Poor sanitation, malnourishment and decreased protection from mosquitos could all cause widespread health problems(malaria, etc.) such as we’re seeing here. Or it could be H5N1, in which case the flooding could easily worsen the situation. All we can do is wait and see.

Linda – at 12:57

MaMa..Thank you. When I see it laid out like that, I feel silly for having posted the question…seems to me that we are possibly then seeing a combination of many things. This could be why there are so many diagnosis; what seems strange is the lack of any reference to H5N1. …hopefully H5N1 isn’t mixed in with it all but if it’s not then it seems that they woulkd say so. I find it hard to believe they haven’t tested for it…or did I somehow miss where they did?

Linda – at 12:57

MaMa..Thank you. When I see it laid out like that, I feel silly for having posted the question…seems to me that we are possibly then seeing a combination of many things. This could be why there are so many diagnosis; what seems strange is the lack of any reference to H5N1. …hopefully H5N1 isn’t mixed in with it all but if it’s not then it seems that they would say so. I find it hard to believe they haven’t tested for it…or did I somehow miss where they did?

MaMaat 13:19

Linda, no problem. As you said this could be a combination of any number of things and likely is, that’s the hard part, not really knowing. As for testing for H5N1, likely there has not been any(my assumption), or not til WHO gets there anyway. I could be wrong, but I don’t think regional hospitals there have labs capable of running the tests. In addition, the region has been suffering since the flooding with many people homeless and hungry. From what some of the reports are saying many people are not even able to get to places to recieve medical attention. What a horrible situation for these people to be in.

Mary Quijano – at 14:03

In India, 17 infants have died in a certain hospital in the last 3 days from “infections”. (I saw this on the RSOE HAVARIA Emergency site today. I’ll try to find a source and come back) But: You all are such super sleuths, I am wondering if you can check to see if there are any connections of this spate of deaths in terms of location,symptoms etc to the nepalese outbreak. One other comment: way back in the thread, a posting said one villager commented that every member of her family was sick. Since usually the adult female mosquito (vector of malaria) only requires two blood meals to inoculate her eggs before laying, they either had 1. a very unusual, very hungry mosquito in their room one night, or 2. the bad luck to have their particular family run into a hoard of similarly infected mosquitoes with the unusual cerebral form of the plasmodium, or 3.it isn’t malaria. Following Occam’s razor, I vote 3.

Mary Quijano – at 14:09

http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/woalert_read.php?id=8253&lang=eng

I don’t know if this link will get you to the exact article, but it will at least get you to the map where you can click on the flashing icon over India and read. The hospital where all the infants died is in Kolkata state in the I think West Bengal district. The hospital claims that many infant deaths in 3 days in not unusual. How horrific a commentary on their health care.

beehiver – at 14:20

Is anyone able to comment on how long it can take from first exposure to the malaria parasite due to an insect bite, until it might kill a person? Is there at least a minimal amount of time to use as a guideline? What I am wondering here is, if the August flood triggered more mosquitoes to breed, has enough time elapsed between that flood and now, to cause a wider number of deaths from malaria.

janetn – at 14:26

What we have is June dogs and chickens sick, starts to spread to humans Aug Flood Nov Still no adaquate medicial care blood test taken still no dx. Lots of negatives for malaria. High RO

Malaria is common for these people I would think the locals would know malaria when they saw it. Whatever it is the flood could have exasperated the RO. I still hate this lack of information, hope we get an answer soon

enza – at 14:30

…”if the August flood triggered more mosquitoes to breed, has enough time elapsed between that flood and now, to cause a wider number of deaths from malaria. “

Yes.

Homesteader – at 15:00

beehiver at 14:20

It was posted earlier that it takes 7–20 days from the mosquito bite to show symptoms, and sometimes as long as 6 months. I believe that was for the Garden Variety of Malaria. Could not find similar info for Cerebral Malaria.

anonyJohn – at 15:14

I’m just rambling…sharing my thoughts

As Linda pointed out, I think it is odd too that H5N1 is absent of mention. I’d feel better if they announced that they had tested a few people for H5N1 and it was all negative. But malaria, dengue, chikunganya…they are what they are. Still, it leaves me with that pink elephant feeling.

But as others have pointed out too there are many other diseases with similar symptoms floating around there and it seems like a boiling pot of viruses. I do hope with the health care system in that part of the world overstrained that they aren’t missing something. Together with the unsettling recent WHO report I still feel that they likely are missing things. I think after the mosquitos stop being active in Nepal, northern India, and other more semi-tropical/temperate regions things will clear up. The picture will either elicit an anxious sigh of relief, or be scary. We’ll see.

NawtyBitsat 15:22

Incubation Period

Following the infective bite by the Anopheles mosquito, a period of time (the “incubation period”) goes by before the first symptoms appear. The incubation period in most cases varies from 7 to 30 days. The shorter periods are observed most frequently with P. falciparum and the longer ones with P. malariae.

Antimalarial drugs taken for prophylaxis by travelers can delay the appearance of malaria symptoms by weeks or months, long after the traveler has left the malaria-endemic area. (This can happen particularly with P. vivax and P. ovale, both of which can produce dormant liver stage parasites; the liver stages may reactivate and cause disease months after the infective mosquito bite.)

Such long delays between exposure and development of symptoms can result in misdiagnosis or delayed diagnosis because of reduced clinical suspicion by the health-care provider. Returned travelers should always remind their health-care providers of any travel in malaria-risk areas during the past 12 months.

Uncomplicated Malaria

The classical (but rarely observed) malaria attack lasts 6–10 hours. It consists of:

Classically (but infrequently observed) the attacks occur every second day with the “tertian” parasites (P. falciparum, P. vivax, and P. ovale) and every third day with the “quartan” parasite (P. malariae).

More commonly, the patient presents with a combination of the following symptoms:

In countries where cases of malaria are infrequent, these symptoms may be attributed to influenza, a cold, or other common infections, especially if malaria is not suspected. Conversely, in countries where malaria is frequent, residents often recognize the symptoms as malaria and treat themselves without seeking diagnostic confirmation (“presumptive treatment”).

Physical findings may include:

In P. falciparum malaria, additional findings may include:

Diagnosis of malaria depends on the demonstration of parasites on a blood smear examined under a microscope. In P. falciparum malaria, additional laboratory findings may include mild anemia, mild decrease in blood platelets (thrombocytopenia), elevation of bilirubin, elevation of aminotransferases, albuminuria, and the presence of abnormal bodies in the urine (urinary “casts”). Severe Malaria

Severe malaria occurs when P. falciparum infections are complicated by serious organ failures or abnormalities in the patient’s blood or metabolism. The manifestations of severe malaria include:

Other manifestations that should raise concern are:

Severe malaria occurs most often in persons who have no immunity to malaria or whose immunity has decreased. These include all residents of areas with low or no malaria transmission, and young children and pregnant women in areas with high transmission.

In all areas, severe malaria is a medical emergency and should be treated urgently and aggressively.

http://www.cdc.gov/malaria/disease.htm

NawtyBitsat 15:26

Severe malaria occurs when P. falciparum infections …

I don’t know how to BOLD

DennisCat 15:29

NawtyBits – at 15:26 bold

us three ‘ s before and three after.

janetn – at 15:34

This does not look like malaria to me. Any Doc care to wieght in

NawtyBitsat 15:41

DennisC at 15:29

thanks

AnnieBat 16:22

This thread has got way too long and takes for ever to open - I will start a new one for you.

AnnieBat 16:25

New thread is here

I will copy across the news links and Pixie’s timetable

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Page last modified on November 04, 2006, at 04:25 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / How Does Bird Flu Spread

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: How Does Bird Flu Spread

19 October 2006

Administrator – at 23:05

How is bird flu spread?

It appears that the H5N1 avian infection in birds is spread primarily through migratory birds and through infected poultry. However, there have been documented cases of H5N1 being transmitted to other animals as well as humans, especially cats and even dogs. Many countries have surveillance systems for identifying H5N1 in migratory birds and poultry, but surveillance of other animals is lacking.

In the bird flu epidemic of 1918, known as the “Spanish Flu,” it is believed that the bird flu H1N1 virus was transmitted to humans from pigs which had been infected by birds or bird feces. Transmission from mammals, especially pigs, to humans occurs more easily than transmission from birds to humans.

H5N1 avian flu is spread in two ways. The first, called “reassortment,” is caused by an exchange of genetic material between the bird flu virus and a human, or even a pig, as appears to have been the case in the 1918 flu. Reassortment can cause a sudden surge of cases resulting in an explosive pandemic spread of H5N1 in humans.

The second way of spreading bird flu is more gradual, one of adaptive mutation. In this scenario the ability of the H5N1 virus to attach to human cells increases through mutation. In adaptive mutation, small clusters of human cases occur with some evidence of human-to-human transmission. There have been human clusters confirmed in Iraq, Azerbaijan, and Indonesia. Since June, 2006 a cluster in Indonesia infected three generations, a cause for serious alarm. Other clusters were verfied in Indonesia in August and September, 2006. While human-to-human transmission has not been confirmed in these cases, infected birds were not identified, making the matter an open question. Adaptive mutation gives the world some time to take defensive action and appears to be occurring at this time.

Administrator – at 23:18
  1. link text: Article by Bird Flu Beacon for all Current News and Bird Flu Facts

20 October 2006

pogge – at 00:18

I trust everyone is aware that this individual’s choice of nickname in no way indicates that I’m no longer around.

26 October 2006

Blue – at 21:52

bump

 I want to include: how will pandemic flu be spread?

02 November 2006

Blue – at 15:06
 OK_

 Bluntly: if anyone knows anyone who died in the pandemic of 1918…then how did they die?

 Not what it looked like…how did they get it?

 <How do the people that die from these pandemic viruses catch them?>

 …Is there a pattern?

 Can we avoid it?

04 November 2006

He thinks I’m crazy too – at 16:17

My father-in-law first contracted the spanish flu from a relative he visited, several miles from his home. He then gave it to his father (they were the only two living in the house), my father-n-law obviously survived but his father died. He said,”he coughed his lungs up on the wall”. He also said that though he was very weak he had to dig his fathers grave and bury him himself, everyone else was either sick or dead or to afraid to help. They must have been some tough old souls back then!!! I guess we can all do what we HAVE to do!!!

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Anti Viral Use

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Anti Viral Use

02 November 2006

Goju – at 11:21

Lets say a person has unlimited access to Amantedine, Tamiflu, Relenza and broad spectrum Antibiotics.

And lets say the Panflu strain is sensitive to all 3 anti virals. And you already had the seasonal Flu and Pnemonia Vaxs.

How would you use them?

crfullmoon – at 11:28

(Are you asking about on a personal level, a community level, or timing and dosage patient questions?)

INFOMASS – at 11:29

It depends on what you want to accomplish. Amantedine is generally more available than Tamiflu, so if you do not have unlimited supplies, you would use Amantedine first, maybe with statins or a blood pressure medicine to stave off the cytokine storm damage. Then you would have more chance of having Tamiflu if a new strain were amantedine resistant. The antibiotics would be most useful for bacterial secondary infections - but that discussion requires a doctor and I am not one. Real doctors should weigh in.

anon_22 – at 11:31

Save all three for treatment use. Start all three with onset of fever when the pandemic virus is in your community. Tamiflu at at least double dose. Continue for 10–14 days depending on resolution of symptoms.

Give tamiflu normal dose to all contacts for 10 days. Add Amantadine and Relenza at first sign of fever, increase tamiflu to double dose as above.

Goju – at 11:57

Anyone aware of studies done using multiple antiviral coctails?

Would you also start an antibiotic series simultaneously?

anon_22 – at 12:02

Goju – at 11:57 Anyone aware of studies done using multiple antiviral coctails?

No, but there is no scientific reason to not do it. Amantadine acts differently than tamiflu and relenza. Tamiflu is absorbed orally but has poor penetration at the bronchial level, whereas relenza achieves high concentration at the bronchial level but low blood levels

Would you also start an antibiotic series simultaneously?

No, but if the patient does not improve within a day or 2, then yes.

tjclaw1 – at 12:28

Ok, if I were to get these antivirals, how much of each should I get per person and what is dosing for young children (2 & 5, both under 35 lbs)? They sell a Tamiflu suspension for children, how many bottles do I need for each, 2?

Also, is generic Amantadine ok?

What would be your order of priority for purchasing these antivirals if you could not afford all of them?

tjclaw1 – at 12:30

What antibiotics for adults and children?

INFOMASS – at 19:17

tjclaw1: I think there was a thread on antibiotics a week or two ago. Aside from a penicillin derivative, there were some newish antibiotics suggested. Anon_22 may know them off the top of her head. Anon_22: I was trying to balance a possible shortage of medicines and more than one wave of flu, possibly with a new strain. But “you are the doctor” and if you put the emphasis on treating the first case (which I understand), ok. But if medicines are short, then might you try the more plentiful medicines first, especially if you somehow knew that the flu in question responded to Amantedine, as Goju stated?

anon_22 – at 19:41

What would be your order of priority for purchasing these antivirals if you could not afford all of them?

tamiflu, amantadine (generic is fine) relenza

tamiflu dosage: AT LEAST twice the dosage recommended on the packaging for seasonal flu, and at least 10 days.

Add probenecid if you have it.

anon_22 – at 19:44

INFOMASS – at 19:17

tjclaw1: I think there was a thread on antibiotics a week or two ago. Aside from a penicillin derivative, there were some newish antibiotics suggested. Anon_22 may know them off the top of her head. Anon_22: I was trying to balance a possible shortage of medicines and more than one wave of flu, possibly with a new strain. But “you are the doctor” and if you put the emphasis on treating the first case (which I understand), ok. But if medicines are short, then might you try the more plentiful medicines first, especially if you somehow knew that the flu in question responded to Amantedine, as Goju stated?

Actually, I’m not current on antibiotics, cos I’m not ‘practising’ right now. (btw does that word not scare you, that doctors ‘practise’ medicine?)

The original question was assuming you have unlimited supplies.

If there are limited supplies, its a hard choice. My instinct is to reserve meds for the highest risk age group ie kids and young adults

No, I wouldn’t use amantadine first, cos its not likely to be lifesaving, and its far more likely to cause resistance with single drug therapy.

If you can only use one, use tamiflu.

anon_22 – at 19:46

to clarigy:

tamiflu, amantadine (generic is fine) relenza

means buy amantadine if you already have tamiflu and have more cash, and so on.

If you can’t get tamiflu, get Relenza

if you can’t get either, get amantadine.

anon_22 – at 19:47

clarify

04 November 2006

He thinks I’m crazy too – at 15:42

I asked this somewhere else but did not recieve an answer. If you recover from BF after taking Tamiflu, will you have the same immunity as recovering without taking it?

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Ask Questions of the Moderators Here XVII

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Ask Questions of the Moderators Here XVII

03 November 2006

pogge – at 17:25

Continued from here.

Tom DVM – at 17:54

anon 22. We had the Spanish Flu, the Asian Flu and the Hong Kong Flu in the past century…

I fail to see why you would have a problem with me naming it the China Flu.

This is a personal decision of mine to give credit where credit is due…and there is no doubt who deserves the credit for this flu…a close second choice, in my opinion, would be the ‘WHO Flu’. I will have to hop over to the PPF thread to figure out who chose that name.

 I am not asking anyone else in the world to use the same terminology…as that would be unethical and undemocratic.
anon_22 – at 17:59

Tom,

We talked about it before on one of the rumour threads, maybe you missed it.

The debate was halfway down this thread

anon_22 – at 18:03

Let me put the posts that I made at the time, here

On the subject of ‘Chinese flu’, I don’t believe it is helpful to start using ethnic labels for a possible pandemic which, whatever you think, is a 99.9% naturally-occurring event, which will kill millions and millions.

For those who don’t know, I’m ethnic Chinese. But I would feel the same if you start using ‘Algerian flu’ or ‘Timbuktu flu’.

Come a pandemic, there will be enough destruction without adding blame, which will not backfire on whoever you believe was negligent right now, but on the totally innocent person of a particular ethnic origin going about their own lives, who will have exactly the same chance of having someone dear dying from the virus as the rest of us.


FrenchieGirl – at 07:16

I should also be reminded that we have had many bad ethnic flus, Spanish flu, which did not originate in Spain; Hong Kong flu, Russian flu, Asian flu, etc.

First, none of these were ethnic in a sense that it arose because of these people, but it just happened to be wherever it was thought to have started. But uninformed members of the public won’t be able to tell the difference.

Second, just cos something was done before does not make it right or useful or appropriate. It wasn’t that long ago when African Americans had to sit at the back of the bus. Societies evolve, for the better, I hope.

Third, when people are dying, none of these arguments will be remembered. Just the name, and the excuse to vent their grief and anger on someone.

Finally, science has also moved on and we no longer use place of origin as name for disease.

Avoiding unintended consequences is part of pandemic mitigation.

anon_22 – at 18:13

For me the big picture, and the reason why I still keep doing this, is this:

There’s a virus that is likely to kill many millions breathing down our necks. The world is not ready. There are many problems we haven’t even begun to list properly. There will be secondary and tertiary consequences on top of the primary ones caused by disease and death.

Maybe I’m naive. I understand that politics is very complicated. I don’t have time for that. There is no time to change governments, either, IMO, not in any substantial ways. That’s going to take too long. Maybe I’m wrong, but that is what I think.

So all I;m focussed on, and believe me it takes at least 18 hours of my 24 hour days, is how to mitigate the potential damage. What is it that we can do right now that will result in the easiest reduction of mortality?

For me, calling names is not it.

Whatever you think about the many things that the Chinese government has done wrong, I absolutely believe it is counterproductive for the world for us to use this as a label for a disease. Will it save lives? Will it do anything other than make someone feel good for maybe less than a minute? What purpose can it possibly achieve?

But think how many secondary and tertiary consequences would that result in? How many people have already died in the past century from differences occurring at the political level that has nothing to do with the individual?

Germans vs Jews, Jews vs Palestinians, white vs black, Hutu vs Tutsi

Do we want to be guardians against bigotry, or do we want to be faciliators?

FloridaGirlat 19:23

Mods, I am sorry… I Introduced sidescroll on the Indonesian XX thread.

Bronco Bill – at 19:24

My feeling about the “name” of a flu pandemic that is going to occur is that in short order, it will receive it’s “official” name from some ‘talking head’ news anchor at either CNN or FOX, probably a year or so after it has done it’s destruction and passed into the history books. Right now, it’s “Bird Flu”. In enlightened circles, such as ours, it’s “Avian Influenza”. In time, it may become “China Flu” or “Indo Flu” or even “Wyoming Flu”. We just don’t know. We’re sitting here, arguing about a name that doesn’t even exist yet.

I have to agree with Anon_22 that we need to get off this “naming” and back to what we’re all here for…prepping and getting/helping others to prep for what could turn out to be the worst plaque mankind has ever seen…

anon_22 – at 19:27

BB

CNN and networks will be under orders from their lawyers not to use these names, trust me.

Medical Maven – at 19:41

I hereby pledge to the name the flu after myself when it explodes on the scene.

Now, can we move on. : )

mmmm good, the MMpanfluitic kill-you-on-the-spot AND spit-you-out-sideways fluuuuu.

Now, I am tapdancing out of this thread.

anon_22 – at 19:42

MM, that’s funny! LOL

observer – at 19:57

Perhaps we should call it the Swiss flu - Switzerland is politically neutral, WHO resides there (Geneva), along with the UN, and Red Cross, also many drug companies, insurance companies and banking. It’s a nice package. All those in favor say “yes”. Good it is decided the Swiss flu. One more plus they will be able to contain it with their year round civilian national military and fortification along all of the borders. Switzerland gets my vote.

Watching in Texas – at 20:27

I suppose it is asking too much for us all just to call it H5N1 and then join hands and sing a rousing chorus of Koom Bah Yah around a campfire :-)

WIT

Anon_451 – at 20:31

You need to check the Nepal thread, getting kind of interesting over there.

DemFromCTat 20:56

I’ve sent out some inquiries, Anon_451. Let’s see if I get any feedback.

DemFromCTat 20:57

WIT, calling it H5N1 is a terrific idea.

Monotreme – at 21:08

There is a lot to respond to, but I won’t do it in any particular order.

As regards naming the flu, I don’t think this is a very important issue, but I can see how calling it Chinese flu could be cause trouble for people of Chinese origin once the pandemic begins. There were problems with stigmatization of asians during SARS which I think was very wrong. OTOH, I do think the government of China bears special responsibility for the spread of H5N1, so I can understand why some wanted to call it China flu. My own suggestion was Hu-Flu, which puts the blame on someone who could have done a lot to warn neighboring countries about new strains of H5N1, but chose not to. In any case, this idle chit-chat, because the name is unlikely to be chosen by anyone at Flu Wiki. Both the WHO and the CDC are very sensitive to the labeling issue, and don’t very much that they will choose a name that is offensive to China.

Tom DVM – at 21:08

How be you call it H5N1 and I will call it China Flu…

…and I will continue to speak the truth as I see it about China and the World Health Organization and you can speak the truth as you see it about China and the World Health Organization and any other topic you choose to comment on…

…and we will all “sing a rousing chorus of Koom Bah Yah around a campfire.”

Tom DVM – at 21:10

and by the way, I did not name it Chinese Flu for the people but China Flu for the country responsible for the mess we find ourselves in today.

Monotreme – at 21:21

anon_22′s launched a personal attack on me at 10:24 on the previous thread. It went as follows:

I also want to add that I have emailed a few people on this forum with explanations on this matter. While some of them have had the decency and courtesy to at least engage in correspondence with me in an attempt to resolve our differences, I am very disappointed not to have received any reply whatsoever from Monotreme. And this is not the first time that he has not responded to my attempt at communication.

This is false. She partially corrected this – at 11:38 when she said:

I need to make a small but important correction to my 10:24 post. I was mistaken to say Monotreme did not reply to my email. There was an initial short reply which did not respond to the contents of my email. I apologize sincerely for Monotreme for that oversight.

In fact, anon-22 and I have had very long and frequent email conversations regarding her background, her opinions on China and why she says the things she does on Flu Wiki. I will not repeat them here. She has also made repeated attempts to meet me in person in spite of my stated wish to remain anonymous. I declined all of these invitations politely until she sent me an email that stepped over the line, IMO. I did not respond to this last email because I found the contents and tone disturbing.

I find the attempts to personalize this issue distasteful. I am a scientist and am happy to discuss any issue on the basis of evidence and logic. I am not prepared to adjust my comments based on claims of international intrigue. If that is required at Flu Wiki, I would prefer not to participate.

Monotreme – at 21:30

I will repeat, for the last time, my concern regarding the some of the wording in the preamble by the Mods.

However, different governments have different standards as to what constitutes libelous or seditious language. Therefore, we would prefer that contributors express their opinions in ways that will allow as many people in different countries to access the information as possible.

I have repreatedly asked the following question, but have yet to receive and answer from the Mods:

I am trying to understand what this means. It seems to imply posts on Flu Wiki must comply with Chinese censorship and libel laws. I am hoping that the Mods mean something else, but only they can clarify what they mean.

The Mods have not answered this question, which is surprising to me. I expected my interpretation to be rapidly dismmissed and an alternative explanation provided. The fact that it has not been addressed implies to me that the Chinese laws regarding libel and sedition will now apply to posts at Flu Wiki. Sorry, but I cannot accept this.

It is a matter of principle.

Watching in Texas – at 21:37

Monotreme - I really rely on your postings here. Just so you know. In case you are thinking about leaving, that is.

Tom DVM – at 21:38

“Do we want to be guardians against bigotry, or do we want to be faciliators?”

Justa thought – at 21:41

Maybe I’m off the wall, but something popped into my mind (what’s left of it after a long week). Wasn’t there mention this week of one of the mods being in SAR Hong Kong where she has a home? And family all over? Is she or her family at risk with this? Sorry if that’s nutty or wrong, too much previous State Dept intrique in years past infuencing my tiny hairs at the back of my neck. Might have been another poster? Just a thought. And I don’t like censorship, but maybe it’s needed for a short time till folks get out of wherever they are..? Ok, going to put my tin hat on and go eat my evening meal about four hours late, low blood sugar probably to blame for rambling.

DemFromCTat 21:47

People are prickly and decide what to take offense at, above and beyond anything anyone else has to say. That’s human nature and cannot be controlled for.

Person A says something.

Person B takes offense.

Person A never meant to suggest anything offensive.

Person B agrees, but takes offense anyway, not out of intent but because the subject is such a sensitive one.

Person A decides that’s unacceptable.

Now someone else gets offended, either at one of the responses, or of the posters, or something else all together.

It would seem I’m describing the events here over the last few days, but actually my family has seen that dynamic for years, and it’s why one cousin isn’t speaking to another (and that’s a true story). No one was wrong, exactly. But people really have to relax a little and stop assuming they are completely right.

Monotreme, by all means discuss what you wish based on evidence and logic. That’s all I’m asking. You may well be right. But logic would dictate that in the absence of metrics to measure our reach, and to accomplish the goal of helping the greatest number of people prepare, and to make sure that Flu Wiki remains a useful communication tool, show a little self-restraint. It won’t disrupt the logic, and it won’t change the conclusions to avoid the word conspiracy, but it will help us communicate. You’ve shown that understanding vis-a-vis the flu naming convention (which Flu Wiki policy for the record henceforth will call H5N1, whatever Tom DVM calls it - sorry, Tom).

Watching in Texas – at 21:50

Tom DVM - mostly I just want you and Monotreme to keep on explaining things to folks like me who could never understand them otherwise. This is terribly selfish on my part I know, but you two are really, really valued - I have learned a lot from both of you, and with some of the news items getting a tidge “interesting”, I would really appreciate the chance to learn more from you both. (WIT hums a chorus of Koom Bah Yah and hopes no one leaves)

(This also includes Anon_22) (so, everybody stay and keep explaining things to WIT, please)

DemFromCTat 21:53

Seems to me the easiest and perhaps best way to handle this is what we’ve belatedly done. If someone writes a post that seems to the mods a bit over the top, we will reserve the right to post a disclaimer at the beginning of the post, as was done with Monotreme’s except maybe shorter and clearer). The disclaimer will make clear that it is not Flu wiki endorsed opinion. We’d much rather do that than pull posts or shut off discussion.

But:

Does that seem like a reasonable compromise to people?

Dennis in Colorado – at 22:03

DemFromCT – at 21:53 The disclaimer will make clear that it is not Flu wiki endorsed opinion.

I wasn’t aware that Flu Wiki had any endorsed opinions. What are they?

DemFromCTat 22:06

There aren’t any. I don’t want the Forum to be taken as such. The Opinion section of the wiki was created for opinions, but the Forum doesn’t have any such designation.

KimTat 22:07

Yep. and I agree with WIT at 21:50

MaMaat 22:09

Me too.

pogge – at 22:13

It seems to imply posts on Flu Wiki must comply with Chinese censorship and libel laws.

I wasn’t involved in writing it, but I’ll take a stab at it. No, I don’t think it’s suggesting that you have to run everything you post by an expert in Chinese libel law before you post it. I think it’s suggesting that when you address a specific subject, you think about the context and the effect your language might have and consider whether the way you’re addressing the subject is going to accomplish the goal you have in mind.

And I still haven’t read the thread that started all of this. I frankly got quite annoyed myself at the some of the things posted earlier in this and the preceding threads and decided a cooling off period was in order.

DemFromCTat 22:23

I think it’s suggesting that when you address a specific subject, you think about the context and the effect your language might have and consider whether the way you’re addressing the subject is going to accomplish the goal you have in mind.

That is the intent.

As posted on the preceding thread, decisions are not required immediately. There’s much to mull over, and a cooling off period is certainly in order.

If I don’t answer further posts tonight, I will be back tomorrow.

Dennis in Colorado – at 22:24

DemFromCT – at 22:06 There aren’t any.

Then by placing a disclaimer in front of some posts, you are giving the wrong impression. You are implying that the disclaimed post contains an opinion that is counter to your own. After all, almost every post here is based on the author’s opinion, and you don’t disclaim every post. A blanket disclaimer should be sufficient, and individual disclaimers should not be made. That is just my opinion, of course, and does not represent the opinion of Flu Wiki.

DemFromCTat 22:28

Dennis in Colorado – at 22:24

We’re wrestling with it. The easiest thing to do is to not need to do it. That’s where self-restraint comes in. But you’re quite right, we may need to build a disclaimer into the header on every post. Sigh.

Tabby – at 22:33

Wow, Ask the Mods has never been so interesting (or dramatic).

I’m a lurker who has learned a tremendous amount about something I never gave a second’s thought to before from Monotreme, Anon_22, TomDVM, and all the other wonderful people at this forum.

Having all these different yet brilliant minds working together for the common good is such a nice thing to see. It’s been very scary learning about H5N1, but having this forum to come to helps a lot. I would be extremely sad to see either Monotreme or Anon_22 leave over this…especially with things so ominous in Nepal and India. We need the hive mind to stay intact, IMO.

Medical Maven – at 22:35

In the marketplace of ideas among such an illustrious grouping that we fluwikians represent I think each person’s thoughts should stand or fall based on their reception.

We seem to self-regulate ourselves fairly well. And the mods are there for the rogue poster or the extremely bad mood that we all fall into occasionally.

It may or may not be “Nepal”, but one of these days some name will ring in infamy. Crunch time is coming. We can not lose the best of us.

Scaredy Cat – at 22:35

So then why not reopen Monotreme’s thread? See the evidence he has to present, see if there’s anything more to his theory.

treyfish – at 22:36

Okay. I feel partly responsible for this intensley debated thread in connection to the above link. I meant no disrespect to any nationality in reference to my calling this disease the Chinese flu.Not that it would matter what i called it,people will call it what they want when it gets here. As I see it, the Chinese govt can withhold any information it wants to regarding this disease. I also see this as causing direct harm to the world population as a whole. Had this disease originated in America and the American govt was withholding this information, we would be in the street protesting.Still may come to that too. Fortunately we have the relative freedom of the internet. Whether other countries withold the freedom of the internet from their citizens is not the subject or the purpose of the fluwiki. Apparently, the Chinese govt. sees fit to withold information pertaining to this disease.One would think they might ask for more help. The widespread movement of the disease and current strengenthing are a direct result of ineffective vaccines and policies affecting not only China and South East Asia but Europe and the rest of the world. At least they ARE trying to fix it.It just seems we aren’t getting all the facts.Even the w.h.o is not being told all the facts. Yes, it is a naturally occuring disease which reoccurs every thirty-five or forty years. You would think we would have a handle on it by now. H5N1 is a very nasty strain and looks to be headed worldwide in the very near future. China’s lack of responsibility in “sharing to solve” this problem distresses me greatly. I feel the Chinese govt. can and should do more to help solve this global problem. The reason I suggested calling it the Chinese flu, is because that seems to be where it originated from and it seems to be getting worse and worse and we seem to be learning less and less from the Chinese. Again, I meant no disrespect to the chinese people. I dont recall any Spanish people getting lynched or burnt in ovens from the naming of the 1918 Spanish flu. I was merely looking for a more serious name leaving the bird flu out, as the “Bird Flu’ doesn’t sound serious enough.I respect anon_22 as i do all on this site regardless of race or ethnicity.I also don’t believe the chinese govt has this site on their “read daily priority list”.Would i or any other poster intentionally try to endanger another on this site?Sounds far fetched to me also.Implied or not.Yes im a little on edge and not alone.I’m sorry to help cause such a ruckus ,but not for the debate.If anything said on any site offends a govt such that we have to worry they will ban us ,they in turn do their own people a GREAT disservice.Saving lives right?We are saving lives.Getting people ready right?We are getting people ready.. to help themselves!I’m ranting i see. Am i wrong to think this way?How about i just call it the “Flying Death” Flu.Anon_22 ,never stop what you do,everyone here needs you.

DemFromCTat 22:38

MM, I quite agree, and I think Dennis in Colorado has a good idea. I’d prefer as much leeway as possible for discussion while still protecting the Forum and its users, and preserving wiki reach. Those are, i think, acceptable goals.

What we have is worth preserving. I hope that Tom and Monotreme have a chance to read the entire thread and think on it. I know the mods will.

DemFromCTat 22:41

treyfish – at 22:36

We’re all on the same side.

Scaredy Cat – at 22:35

That goes for you, too. And in answer to your question, all in good time. ;-)

DemFromCTat 22:42

Tabby – at 22:33

Thanks for posting. i think we all agree with you.

Monotreme – at 22:43

Watching in Texas – at 21:50

I think it might be best if I take a break from Flu Wiki for a while. But don’t worry, if something critical happens, I’ll be back.

Best wishes,

Monotreme

treyfish – at 22:44

Yes, all on the same side.:)

Bronco Bill – at 22:46

Watching in Texas – at 20:27 --- I never got the chance to learn that song. How does it go? ;-)

DemFromCT – at 21:53 --- we have to reserve the right to moderate. Does that seem like a reasonable compromise to people?

No. As the owners, Moderators, editors and creators of this site, you do not need to reserve the right to moderate, nor compromise the way you want the site to function. I have a whole litany of reasons why not, but my brain hurts, my fingers are numb, and I think that maybe I will have one glass of RWFK and call it a night.

treyfish – at 22:55

TREME DONT RUN!

DemFromCTat 22:57

BB, actually I’m liking D in C’s idea. I’ve sent it to the mods for study. And I/we will do what’s needed for the site, not to worry. ;-)

Nonetheless, feedback is always welcome.

Bronco Bill – at 22:57

I would be extremely sad to see either Monotreme or Anon_22 leave over this…especially with things so ominous in Nepal and India. We need the hive mind to stay intact, IMO.

I second that opinion.

Bronco Bill – at 22:59

‘night all.

Scaredy Cat – at 23:07

Monotreme,

There isn’t another Flu Wikian I respect more than you. I’m sure you’re not making this decision lightly, but, still, I would ask you to reconsider because you are, above all, a humanitarian, a man with a mission, and despite all the glitches and flaws of this place, at this critical juncture in history, you are so very much needed here.

Watching in Texas – at 23:13

Monotreme - I understand that you need to take a break. I have taken one myself, though my input is not on the same level as yours and I’m not sure anyone noticed the break ;-). It does make me feel better knowing that you’ll at least be out there watching, and that you will come back if something happens. Hmmm….I find myself hoping you will come back soon, but that it will be because you miss us and not because TSHTF!!

Bronco Bill - you grab the marshmallows and I’ll put another log on the fire and I’ll be happy to teach you that song:) Okay, forget the marshmallows….with the latest news out of Nepal, better make it RWFK.

enza – at 23:15

Oh dear.

Meanwhile, somewhere in the world… H5N1 is putting the final touches on a mutation that could change our exsistence as we know it

Olymom – at 23:18

Every time I turn on the news there is a blurb about the “Iraq war” — which should probably be called the “American war” because we started it. For the first time in my life, I am embarrassed to be an American — I would hate for all things aggressive to be referred to as “in the American style” — so, I’ll vote for calling the virus “H5N1” and saying the Chinese government officials who are obstrucating are a bunch of turds (dangerous ones too) — but since I don’t want to be painted with the same brush that labels my leaders, let’s do take time to be specific.

Sorry, Tom DVM, “China Flu” doesn’ t work (among other things, it leaves out the jerks at WHO and CDC) — we could, however, call it “Influenza intensifed by political hacks”. I could live with that.

04 November 2006

Dennis in Colorado – at 00:05

Ah, the post that proves my point (Olymom – at 23:18). Without a blanket disclaimer at the forum home page someone might think that, since the moderators didn’t put a disclaimer in front of Olymom’s post, that her sentiments must accurately reflect the views of the moderators/owners of the forum. But Flu Wiki doesn’t have any opinions, so we have cognitive dissonance. Unless, of course, the moderators here do welcome all comments that are disparaging of our current administration and only feel the need to write disclaimers when their own ox is being gored. The line between moderation and censorship is so very fine, isn’t it?

DemFromCTat 00:15

Dennis in Colorado – at 00:05

Your suggestion seems to be the best idea so far on the topic. Why don’t you stop there and be gracious about it?

Snowhound1 – at 00:28

OK…so I am just an observer, but I think everyone just needs to take a deep breath. :) Words and labels are just that…nothing more. I am not easily offended, but I tend to be in the minority there…There is always another means to express one’s beliefs and ideas and perhaps that is all that is needed here. Unfortunatley, it is hard to rephrase one’s original idea once we hit the Post button and of course, each person will interpret what they read just a little bit differently than the next person. The point of this exercise (Fluwikie) is to learn, explore and educate, is it not? Sometimes, it just takes a little extra time to find the right words that won’t offend. Doubly difficult once someone has been offended. I’ve been there myself unintentionally. It is hard to right it. Have you ever read the Constitution? It is a beautiful piece of writing…but carefully crafted. :) It had to be..It is possible to express one’s beliefs and ideas, while carefully considering what repercussions they may have. I guess that this is the point of this exercise and of fluwikie. What is being done here is a beautiful thing and has never been done before, so each step forward is a step that has never been taken before. Every day I believe a new person’s eyes are opened to the what if’s of our future and of a possible pandemic, because of the site and the forum. How cool is that? Monotreme, please don’t “go” anywhere…you are a very much appreciated member of the family…It just won’t seem the same if you “go away”.

And for DemFromCt…shows you how “dumb” I am, but the first time I saw your “name” a long time ago, I thought your name was probably Demetrius or something and you lived in Connecticut. >;) Goes to show you that how each person interprets what they read here is based on their own personal perceptions and experiences. Perhaps it is also true that you can please some of the people some of the time but you can’t please all of the people all of the time..So are you a Democrat? LOL

As far as the “political correctness” of naming the future pandemic, why can’t we just call it what it ends up being, whether that is H5N1 or another virus. I think it will make everyone look much smarter than trying to find a catchy name for it. My best to all…

ANON-YYZ – at 00:31

I have been very busy and have not posted for a while.

This is yet the biggest adjustment reaction I have seen. It smacks of grasping straws, desperation. Do we want to be part of the solution, or be part of the problem?

Some one here mentioned the word ‘humanitarian’. What is harder? Pointing fingers, scapegoating, or finding ways to mitigate? Remember Mother Teresa, Gandhi.

Some of you may recall I objected to sensationalism from some posters for whom I questioned the motives. I still do. Fluwiki has been a meeting place of reason, to talk about perhaps the greatest threat known to mankind in our lifetime.

I hate it when we lose our head.

The world (and yes, even the WHO) has slowly and finally awakened to the pandemic being a real possibility, with high transmissibility, and possibly high CFR. We have always managed to get along, yet we are now bickering. There is no more irony than this. How sad.

DemFromCTat 00:32

Much appreciated, Snowhound1!

DemFromCTat 00:35

ANON-YYZ, good perspective. Of course, it’s not like the rest of the Wiki and Forum stop while we work things out on this thread. ;-)

anonymous – at 01:25

what’s the rules here for bumping ? Since we have no organization within the forum, bumping is the only method to sort threads. So, it would make sense to autobump all threads you are interested in, but this is probably not productive, not wanted. We should have some voting or such, by which the order of the threads is decided.

anon_22 – at 02:06

anonymous – at 01:25

There aren’t any. It isn’t so much about sorting threads as about making certain threads visible when the forum gets crowded. If you see something that you think is important and others might have missed it, then you bump it up. Different people might think this of different threads, and rightly so. I don’t think there is any need for a consensus on the order of the threads, and it would be difficult anyway, with new threads constantly appearing and events changing over time.

anonymous – at 02:33

what, when people are starting to autobump their threads ?
I have a problem to follow my postings and find the replies here. When I look the next day, my threads are far down.

anon_22 – at 02:58

I’m not sure I understand what the question is, so please ask again if I didn’t answer it properly. Threads that gets posted on will come up on top, so if nobody is writing anything to a thread, it will drift down. If you want a specific thread to go back on top so others can see it, by all means ‘bump’ it up by posting anything on it, even just a blank post.

You can’t really autobump a thread, as in it won’t happen automatically. Someone has to find it and do it every time.

anon_22 – at 06:39

The following is my clarification following Monotreme’s earlier posts. I, like everyone else, want to move on. However, I do think it is important to set the record straight, especially on facts. You are all welcome to ask me questions on these for the next day, then we’ll consider this subject closed.

crfullmoon – at 06:56

What Tabby said: …”Having all these different yet brilliant minds working together for the common good is such a nice thing to see. It’s been very scary learning about H5N1, but having this forum to come to helps a lot. I would be extremely sad to see either Monotreme or Anon_22 leave over this…”…

This whole end of history is putting eveyone under a lot of stress; everyone on the ‘Wiki, take care of yourselves, take breaks when needed, and keep coming back as you can.

We are on the same side, after all; the side that wants to try and mitigate a catastrophe. In the face of a lot of “history of human nature repeating itself”. Not pleasant. Very stressful. But “our side” is thin enough, as is…

Bronco Bill – at 07:04

I have always said that I will step down if there was any conflict of interest.

I, for one, see no conflict of interest.

pamcat – at 07:16

I too see no conflict of interest.

Pixie – at 08:05

I’ve been using the word “tension” in a lot of my posts lately.

It’s not just happening here, and I do wish that Monotreme, anon_22, and all of us can realize that the tension we are all caught up in is in no way personal. Even monoliths like WHO and the government of China are yelling at each other in the press this week, and each feels that it has a highly supportable argument. It’s not completely unexpected that if the major parties are at that level of tension, a part of that argument would spill over here.

At the moment, H5N1 is a problem in China and they are taking the heat for it. When it gets here, our government will take the heat for it. The only reason that hasn’t happened so far is that we are pretty much blessedly immune from having to manage the H5N1 problem, for good or for bad, at the moment. We make comments occasionally about the manner in which our CDC confuses matters, or we take the occasional swipe at Weybridge for hoarding their sequences. But right now we aren’t feeling that our very lives are threatened by the actions of the U.S. or British governments (and I am saying “we” in the sense of our overall populations, not Fluwikians, who may differ). The moment that changes, and people realize that the problem is or may shortly be on their doorstep, we will see many opinions here that are much sharper than Monotreme’s opinion on China.

Each opinion here is a valued contribution but it is only that - an opinion held by one individual. Is there a chance that any one person’s opinion may be confused with that of Fluwiki itself? I guess there is, but there’s almost always a counter-opinion offered if you wait 5 minutes. Often, it will be an equally strong opinion. I wish that Monotreme’s and anon_22′s debate was carried out on the actual subject thread, then, and not on a thread where the subject became that of censorship. Their debate has touched on important and valild points - on both sides. We need to see heated and emotional debate like this carried out in - for lack of a better wording - an organized manner no matter how prickly the points made and how much emotion someone else’s opinion can engender. Why? Because we need a model as to how we can and should proceed when TSHTF. The tension we are seeing here is just the tip of the iceberg. It will only get worse from here on in.

This week, there is a lot of tension in the air, but it is not engendered by individuals -it is engendered by the situation. It really alarms me that we have seen both of these highly valued members of the Fluwikie community speak about ending their involvememts here. All of us here value both Monotreme and anon_22′s opinions exceedingly. And, they are both putting forth valid and yet unprovable (not unproven, but unprovable) theses.

In the world of realpolitik, those in charge of some nations really do sometimes have nefarious motives, and depending on the week we can hear some of them stating those motives out loud. Is that happening in this case? Some are going to postulate that China has ill intentions regarding H5N1 and speculate about their seeking post-pandemic trade advantages or the possibility of cashing in on a proprietary vaccine. Once the pandemic emerges, the U.S. will be accused of intentionally letting the 3rd world disappear due to its imperialistic aims. Nobody is going to get out of this one unscathed.

Anon_22′s concerns are valid too. Right now U.S. servicemen in Europe are not allowed to walk around in their free time while wearing their uniforms because they may be in danger from those who link the policies of their country with those particular individuals. I don’t think that when we here criticize China for its policies that any of us are blaming ethnic Chinese people in any way, but anon_22 is right in thinking that there will be some few who will do so, and that’s a valid concern. (Fortunately, I don’t think we’ll have much influence in naming this pandemic anyway and that’s a good thing if you’ve seen some of the names that we’ve come up with here!)

So let’s debate. And let’s figure out how to do that now, on the most prickly questions, because if we can’t do it, there’s little hope that others who are less informed will be able to do better. The tension is only going to rise now, we have to learn to live with it, and maybe model to others who come late to this game how to do so. If we see Monotreme and anon_22, two quite brilliant and thinking scientists, nearly come to blows here, it does not bode well for the neighborhoods of Los Angeles when pandmeic arrives later.

Off my soapbox now, and back to those chickens, dogs, and people who are bleeding from the nose and throat.

Tabby – at 08:40

Well said Pixie!!! A round of BB’s RWFK for everyone. Nevermind the early hour.

DemFromCTat 08:53

Morning observations:

DemFromCTat 08:54

Oh, and as stated on the previous thread:

Watching in Texas – at 09:15

anon_22 - I don’t see a conflict of interest either. I see people with differing viewpoints who believe in what they are saying. I think that the forum would suffer greatly if it lost you or Monotreme or Tom DVM.

There is a reason I come here and not to the other forums. FluWiki has something that, to me, is unique. It just feels like family. It won’t feel like that if we lose valuable posters.

I am not a scientist or a doctor or a scholar. I depend on the expertise of others to get me through this. Somebody has to be around to tell me not to panic;-)

WIT

Goju – at 09:54

I was banned from one Flu site. I was temporarily suspended from another.

I’m an ok kind of guy don’t ya think?

Enough of these posturing posts. We’ve got much more important work ahead of us with an uninformed population that needs us all.

There is an old saying that needs repeating… goes like this…

“when tempers flare, the wise person puts their fists down”

H5N1 it is… call white white and black black. Say it as you see it. Take no offense.

Lets get on with it.

Tom DVM – at 10:24

“Say it as you see it.”

Goju. I think you have hit on the crux of the matter.

That appears to be no longer possible.

It is very difficult to hold you nose and type at the same time.

enza – at 10:36

More importantly, can you hold a glass of the BBRWFK that Tabby is pouring for us and type at the same time?

(sorry. enza will quietly return to her corner now)

anon_22 – at 10:55

Pixie – at 08:05

I don’t think that when we here criticize China for its policies that any of us are blaming ethnic Chinese people in any way, but anon_22 is right in thinking that there will be some few who will do so, and that’s a valid concern.

No, that is not my concern at all.

But thanks for your eloquent post. Point taken.

anon_22 – at 10:56

Pixie, a bit of apology is in order. The China Flu discussion was a red herring, that just happenened to co-incide with this follow up to Monotreme’s posts. One has nothing to do with the other.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 10:59

Tabby, thanks for not lurking now — welcome!

Goju – at 09:54 I was banned from one Flu site. I was temporarily suspended from another. I’m an ok kind of guy don’t ya think?

Yep!

I hope today takes a positive decisive turn here!

anon_22 – at 10:59

Watching in Texas – at 09:15

I see people with differing viewpoints who believe in what they are saying.

To clarify, this difference in view point is mainly in what constitutes acceptable risk to individuals and their family and friends under certain jurisdictions, which, unfortunately, is extremely difficult to reconcile by debate. But thanks for your kind words!

anon_22 – at 11:03

Goju, and everyone, apologies for these short clarifications, cos I just got in the door. I can’t speak for anyone else, but on this end it has nothing to do with taking offense or flaring tempers or slamming fists. It has to do with risk.

diana – at 11:06
 I don’t know what the offense was.I would like to see the thread in question. I  personally have always thought of H5N1 as the Chinese Flu, it must be more than a bird and beast flu.  Anon 22 is playing with the big boys in her field. You play, and it’s for keeps, though they will indulge a woman.  It can be great and you need the stomach for it. They do play rough. Is anyone in danger over this?  That is not for me or anyone else to say.  I don’t think Ian Fleming  is writing this script from the grave…..While I have a deep respect for the Wiki and what it has done, don’t overestimate its importance ,especially in China. Perhaps the mods have more international standing than I think they have….. The men in power in China are pragmatists and saving face,while not a thing of the past is easy as they don’t care. They simply do whatever they choose to do, and the  welfare of the entire human race isn’t one of their considerations. Staying in power is. Nixon went to China, perhaps it was one of his mistakes.
under the radar – at 11:09

Pixie, thanks, you summed up my thoughts. Personally, I think each person should be able to post what’s on their mind, their opinions, without fear of reprisal. I’ve seen that on other forums, and I think it’s really counterproductive.

I also think it’s offensive that anyone would censor anothers opinion, just because it doesn’t hold with their own, or just because someone else might not like it. This is a free country (USA), so far, at least, and our first amendment is supposed to guarantee free speech.

The mods/owners of this site can do whatever they want on this site, of course, but I think it would be a shame to censor it in any way. I think people all over the world look to the US as a symbol of what they all hope for, freedom. I hate to see them let down, and I hate to see the people of the US let down (at least those who read and participate on Flu Wiki), especially when those who are paying attention these days in the US realize how much risk we are at of losing our freedom, due to recent legislation that has passed.

So, Monotreme, I think you should go ahead and post whatever you want. And anon_22, I think you should go ahead and post what you want. Go ahead and disagree, that’s what’s great about this country, we can do that. But don’t anyone say someone else isn’t entitled to post their opinion. Someone once said, I forget who, and this is paraphrased, ‘I might not agree with what you say, but I would fight to the death for your right to say it.’

anon_22 – at 11:10

Let me re-post one item from the previous thread, to put this in context.

anon_22 – at 11:28

MM,

I’m saying that I will not be moderator of a site that allows unsubstantiated accusations of intent to do harm. Criticism, analysis, opinions, news, even rumours, are welcome. When it comes to allegations or accusations, just be circumspect. Is all I’m saying.

Perhaps that explains things better for some of you. I’m sorry I can’t be more explicit than this, I’m only asking that you read what I write carefully.

anon_22 – at 11:11

under the radar,

Fluwiki is not an exclusively US site. I am not a US citizen, even though I appear to be doing a lot of things for the US community at the moment, May I therefore respectfully ask you to take things from that perspective.

anon_22 – at 11:13

May I ask everyone to please read my post at 11:10 to find out what constitutes ‘censorship’.

under the radar – at 11:14

Hi anon_22, yes, I *was* taking that into consideration. :) Thank you sincerely for what you are doing, by the way. Thanks doesn’t seem like it’s enough, it’s an undertatement for what we owe you.

Bird Guano – at 11:14

anon_22 – at 10:59

Watching in Texas – at 09:15

I see people with differing viewpoints who believe in what they are saying.

To clarify, this difference in view point is mainly in what constitutes acceptable risk to individuals and their family and friends under certain jurisdictions, which, unfortunately, is extremely difficult to reconcile by debate. But thanks for your kind words!


Is the wikie hosted in China ?

This seems like a personal hot-button issue for you.

Do you have personal risk because of viewpoints I post here on the wikie that are critical of China ?

I do business in, and visit China quite a bit myself and don’t share that perception of risk.

To me what occured on the thread in question is blatent censorship and unacceptable to me on a personal level.

DemFromCTat 11:19

Perhaps the mods have more international standing than I think they have…..

Perhaps they do. Perhaps the wiki does. Perhaps it wants to. Perhaps it’s not as much a free speech discussion as a risk assessment discussion. While we all will come down differently on that issue, it is clear from discussions with Monotreme and anon_22 off and online that we all respect that that’s the angle we’re coming from. The last thread is important to read, for those coming late, and the major discussion is over this thread and the language used.

anon_22 – at 11:20

Do you have personal risk because of viewpoints I post here on the wikie that are critical of China ?

No, not with viewpoints, but see my post at 11:10. Thanks!

I do business in, and visit China quite a bit myself and don’t share that perception of risk.

I assume that neither you nor any of your family and friends have Chinese citizenship. I assume also that you have not grown up or lived in such jurisdiction. If my assumptions are correct, then your risk assessment is not adequate for those whose circumstances are different from yours. With respect.

anon_22 – at 11:22

under the radar – at 11:14

Thank you once again for your kind words. They are appreciated!

lugon – at 11:24

Monotreme, if you feel you have to go away for a while, please send us on a close-to-light-speed flight: to you it should feel as a long-enough journey, and to us it should feel as short as a blink of the eye.

Respectfully,

DemFromCTat 11:24

Bird Guano

It isn’t just a concern for anon_22. it’s a larger question of where we want to positon Flu Wiki - partner, antagonist, somewhere in the middle. Not just for China, not just for the US, but for any govenment and also whether the ‘partner’ is the citizens of these countries. The answer may be that, fine, but we do what we do, with a disclaimer at the top that says “this is individual opinion only”.

But even if that’s the answer for now, the question remains a profound and complex one. And it’s our responsibility (mods and posters)to come to grips with it, whether you agree or not.

under the radar – at 11:40

anon_22, it seems like you are saying that there could be risk to people in other countries just from reading what’s on the wiki, is that right? Could you explain? Honestly, I don’t understand. Maybe that isn’t what you were saying at all. I would like to understand.

diana – at 11:41

Monotreme wrote what he felt needed to be noted and under public consideration. I don’t doubt his intentions are motivated by an idealistic view of the greater good. I hope his or her withdrawal is mere regrouping, and getting away to pleasanter pursuits.,for whatever period of time is needed. There are always things that need to be said, and Monotreme said them., even if Anon 22 felt they were offensive to China, or Margaret Chan. A disclaimer is always a good idea in any forum or public venue.

under the radar – at 11:46

I think I might understand. Flu Wiki is not a US site, it is an international site, in fact, it could even be considered a Chinese site, if I’m not mistaken. Therefore, the owners/mods of the site or their families, if they are in China, could be at risk from the government. I am just guessing here, excuse me if I’m off on the wrong track. If that is true, that is something that I think most of us didn’t realize. If that’s the case, I would not post anything that I knew could put anyone at risk for harm, and I don’t think anyone else would either. Even if it meant not speaking our mind fully. I would temper my words in that case. Anon_22, am I correct in my guess?

anon_22 – at 11:50

under the radar – at 11:40

‘’anon_22, it seems like you are saying that there could be risk to people in other countries just from reading what’s on the wiki, is that right? Could you explain?’

I’m sorry, its not people reading the wiki, but specifically those who are associated with the site, aka the mods, aka myself. American or western law accepts the concept of free speech as well as individual responsibility. ie as long as I put a disclaimer that what you say is not my opinion, it is not my opinion. In the context under discussion.

You need to know that notions about responsibility and understanding of whether I do or do not condone opinions on this site can vary significantly under other jurisdictions. Guilt by association is dead in the west. It isn’t in some places.

Under western law, individuals also bear personal responsibility in a different way, so that your grandparents or your business partners, for example, never have to worry about what you are saying or doing. Again that is not necessarily the case in some parts of the world.

You guys are wonderfully naive. I am actually laughing now… Sorry, I just thought you would understand what I was saying…

Bird Guano – at 11:51

anon_22 – at 11:20

I assume that neither you nor any of your family and friends have Chinese citizenship. I assume also that you have not grown up or lived in such jurisdiction.

 If my assumptions are correct, then your risk assessment is not adequate for those whose circumstances are different from yours. With respect. 

False assumptions, but your perception of me is quite interesting none the less.

I’m fully cognizent of the risks and fallout from simple things like reading the “wrong’ website, to citizens of, and even visitors to Communist China.

I really don’t want to get into a pissing contest with you about who knows best vis-a-vis China.

It’s not about you or me.

Suffice it to say I’m fully aware of the ins and outs of Chinsee society and business.

And I think it’s time I took a break from the Wikie as well, if this is going to be the direction in which it’s evolving.

It’s unacceptable to me on a personal level, but that’s just the country boy surfacing above the MBA.

And Dem, I’d vote for “somewhere in the middle” but that’s NOT the trend I’m seeing here.

anon_22 – at 11:52

under the radar – at 11:46

The only thing you are incorrect about is this, FW is definitely not a Chinese site!

LOL

under the radar – at 11:54

Anon_22, I understand now why you can’t even comment anymore on this topic. I feel just sick about this whole thing, and I hope everything is alright with you. I sincerely hope no one else would be held responsible for anything someone else posted on the wiki. Those of us in the US and other relatively free countries take our freedom for granted, and really can barely comprehend not having that freedom. We should be careful in criticizing some governments for the sake of others on the wiki. I’m not even going to qualify that as my opinion. I think it is a sad fact.

anon_22 – at 11:55

BG,

I’m sorry you feel the way you feel. It is not any direction that FW is going. Please consider whether the line that I draw at 11:10 is reasonable. I personally think it is reasonable, but then that’s just me. As I said, I bow to the general wisdom, and, ultimately, the collective decision of all the mods.

anon_22 – at 11:56

under the radar – at 11:54

It is actually not that bad, nor that hard. Again, notice where I draw the line, at my 11:10 post. I believe most people’s conscience can live comfortably with that.

Bird Guano – at 11:57

anon_22 – at 11:55 As I said, I bow to the general wisdom, and, ultimately, the collective decision of all the mods.


As do I.

It’s not my sandbox.

Scaredy Cat – at 11:57

I’m seeing a shifting rationale for the censoring of Monotreme’s thread.

On Nov. 2, early A.M., I suddenly realized that a thread Monotreme started, titled “The Chinese Governments Plot to Hide Their Role in Causing a Pandemic” was no longer on the forum thread list. That was weird, because I had just minutes before read the thread and suddenly it had poof! disappeared. I scrolled up and down, up and down the thread list, certain I must have missed it, but no, I hadn’t. It really was no longer there. Somehow I was able to reopen the thread and post to it by hitting the back button on my computer.

The following is what I wrote, and the answer I received:

02 November 2006

Scaredy Cat – at 02:49

What happened to this thread that Monotreme started?

anon_22 – at 02:53

It was deleted for inappropriate content.

Speculations about conspiracy theories concerning the Chinese government is the fastest one-way ticket to get this site banned for anyone trying to read it from inside their jurisdiction. Please keep comments on this forum non-emotive and non-conspiratorial.

The thread is here.

Monotreme – at 11:58

For all the kind, comments, thanks. Please be assured that I will continue to work towards preparedness and towards doing everthing I can do to mitigate damage from a pandemic. As regards China, I think this is the central issue right now. Comments by Dr. Julie Hall at the WHO and others have made this very clear to me. It is important that pressure be brought to bear on the Chinese government to release all H5N1 information immediately. Failure to accomplish this has the potential to result in the loss of millions of lives. I do not think Flu Wiki will be the best place to accomplish this, unfortunately.

As regards anon_22′s comments at 06:39, I am at a loss. She states things which she knows to be false. I do not know why. I have emails from her which clearly contradict her statements. She knows this. I can only assume she is under a great deal of pressure and feels obliged to say what she is saying. This is the most charitable interpretation I can attribute to her statements.

This is not a matter of my being offended by someone who believes something different than me. This is a matter of a scientist (me) who is over his head in areas for which he was not trained. Normal spats between discussants can be worked out, but I have no idea how to deal with intrigues. I’ve read a few Le Carré novels, but I don’t think that’s enough ;-)

I am considering starting a blog and will let people know if I am able to get this going.

anon_22 – at 11:58

I don;t want anyone to feel they have to be inhibited because of me, please, I really don’t. Just take heed when I say ‘be carefu;’, ok? Pleasse?

Bird Guano – at 12:03

It’s not a conspiracy theory if the body of evidence supports the allegations.

;-/

under the radar – at 12:04

Anon_22, Monotreme, others, this has been an extremely significant thread. It has opened my eyes to things I hadn’t really seen clearly before. People in the US, we should realize that we could lose the freedom of free expression of our thoughts that we take for granted. We could soon lose our freedom to disagree with our government and those powers that be, because we have not been paying attention. Knowing what I know, I am afraid even now of writing this, because I have been paying attention, and I have read the legislation that has been recently signed into law here in this country.We are no longer as free as we think we are. That is a terrifying thought to me, more so that the bird flu, or whatever you want to call it. A little off topic here, But I am serious about what I am saying here.

crfullmoon – at 12:09

we live in interesting times, under the radar, we surely do

:-(

Bird Guano – at 12:10

Similar conditions on information restriction existed during the 1918 pandemic.

crfullmoon – at 12:12

“Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose”, BG. sigh.

anon_22 – at 12:18

Monotreme,

We can engage in he said, she said till the cows come home, and it will be destructive to the Wiki, whether you are right or I am right. I suspect as always that the truth is always going to be somewhere in between. If you genuinely think I lied, I’m sorry that you get that impression, and I genuinely do not think I did. If I’m mistaken in my memory of certain details, as I did not keep our previous emails, then yes, there might have been some misunderstanding there. In that case I sincerely apologise.


As for the thread in question, let me put it this way, and to Scaredy Cat as well,

I apologise for ‘deleting’ the thread on the day that it happened. I put the word ‘deleted’ in quotes because I did not delete it, I saved it so I could discuss it with the other mods. However, since the way to take a thread offline is to use the word ‘delete’ I used that word in the post as well without thinking it might be erroneous. I do again apologise.


What I did immediately was to email yourself, Monotreme, as well as the other mods. It was some hours before Dem could get back to me.

After some discussion, it was decided to put the thread back with a disclaimer. Notice that none of the content was changed.


Subsequent to that, in my post on the previous part of this thread, I made this position clear.

I believe it is possible to say everything that Monotreme is trying to say without accusations implying deliberate intent to harm, which is what the word ‘conspiracy’ means in the Chinese language. If this was a mistake of understanding, then I will respectfully ask you to use a different way of expressing your ideas.

If it was your intention to say that the Chinese government took actions with the intention of harming the rest of the world, I will exercise my prerogative as a moderator to ask you to withdraw this accusation unless you have evidence.

So perhaps I shouldn’t have ‘deleted’ the thread, maybe I should have just ‘closed’ it. Notice though that it is in the mod’s perogative to close or delete threads, but I concede that maybe I could have just closed it while waiting to consult with the other mods.

But here is the gist of my question for you Monotreme,

Do you or do you not intend to say that the Chinese government took actions with regards to the current H5N1 situation and a likely pandemic with the intention of harming the rest of the world? If the answer is yes, then I’m sorry, I cannot let such statements stand on this site while I am moderator.

If the answer is no, then it is very simple, Monotreme, just re-write the thread, tone down the rhetoric, and put this behind us.

That’s all I’m asking.

Is that too much to ask??

If the collective wisdom, and the opinion of the other mods, is that this was an unreasonable stance on my part, then I regretfully and willingly step down right now as moderator.

That, to me, is the central question.

Respectfully yours,

anon_22

diana – at 12:19

Naive? Good god, Look at the Ukranian president at the time candidate of what was it the Orange Party, who was poisoned ,and a handsome man in his prime reduced into a sick ,grey ,lumpy mess. Does anyone say who did it? Of course not. Not expedient. Most here know the loathesome things that happen all over the world. There are conspiracies that are enacted day in and day out. A large portion of what people think is what they have pre-digested for them. For all its flaws, the internet gives people access to news and they make up their minds,(if they have that capacity). To have the wiki handcuffed to Chinese interests or sensibilities would be a travesty. To have people holding back, to have Monetrome holding back, to have anyone at all holding back what they have a basis to speak out on would be a travesty..I still think of that thin young man, with a white shirt and black trousers in front of a Tank in Tianamen Square. I knew someone who barely escaped arrest for taking a photo of another arrest there. A fairly stupid woman. Only a vigorous resistance from those around her saved her from a period in a Chinese jail. No, we know what happens in China.

under the radar – at 12:22

FWIW, I don’t think the Chinese government had the intention of harming the rest of the world.

anon_22 – at 12:25

Monotreme,

There is no intrigue. All the questions are there, in the open, on the post that I just made.

I am spelling out what is or what is not acceptable. You may not agree. That is a difference of opinion.

It is not intrigue.

Bird Guano – at 12:26

Occam’s Razor says in essence.

Don’t attribute to malice, what can be explained away as basic incompetence.

under the radar – at 12:27

I think it is fine, correct, a responsibility, even for us to stand up for what we believe in order to safeguard our freedomes. I don’t think it’s fine for us to do it with the knowledge that it may put others in danger for our actions. Let us criticize our own government, if we wish, but let us not criticize another government when it is not we who have to live there!

anon_22 – at 12:31

Here’s the bottomline, for me, since we have arrived at this spot, which I was most reluctant to get to, publicly.

Someone writes up some conspiracy theory, and he’s ok cos he’s safe, and I have to take the heat.

Well, if that’s what comes with being a mod, it better be a conspiracy theory that I also believe in, cos I’m not willing to be martyr to someone else’s cause, thank you very much.

Edna Mode – at 12:33

I think the contributions to the wiki of both Monotreme and anon_22 are invaluable, and I hope this conflict can be satisfactorily resolved so that the wiki community is able to retain the benefit of both their perspectives going forward. If not, wiki progress on broader goals will, IMO, suffer.

Bird Guano – at 12:34

under the radar – at 12:27

I think it is fine, correct, a responsibility, even for us to stand up for what we believe in order to safeguard our freedomes. I don’t think it’s fine for us to do it with the knowledge that it may put others in danger for our actions. Let us criticize our own government, if we wish, but let us not criticize another government when it is not we who have to live there!


I respectfully and strongly disagree.

Should we have not have critized other governments such as Nazi Germany, Pol Pot’s Cambodia, Somalia and the Darfur humanitarian crisis ?

Pretty soon you go down the slippery PC slope of not standing for anything of substance because you may offend or endanger a 3rd party.

I’m sorry but I’m not under the illusion that I hold that much power in the world.

I dismiss your assertion with malice !

anon_22 – at 12:35

under the radar – at 12:27

but let us not criticize another government when it is not we who have to live there!

No, you should definitely criticize other governments where criticism is due. Criticism eg I think that the Chinese government should be more forecoming with sharing samples, is fine. Accusations eg the Chinese government is doing this on purpose to…. without significant evidence, is very dubious at the best of times, and is unacceptable here.

As I said, this is important, I don;t want to stifle debate. There is a lot to criticise the Chinese and other governments for. Credit and criticism where each is due, is all I;m saying. And when it is controversial, and you do not have very good evidence, you can still say it but tone it down, is all I’m saying.

Pixie – at 12:35

May I make some practical suggestions that will not in any way end this debate (as it is a debate for our time, not just for the Fluwiki) but may help.

If we are posting opinions that are potentially very, very, harsh, it is easy enough to render those opinions a little harder to follow by those who do not speak English as a native language. Everyone here is a terrific writer, but we don’t always have to be so clear in our writing.

If you are saying something that may be considered inflamatory to a foreign party, there are a couple of ways to make what you are saying less clear to someone offshore translating it, while still keeping it quite clear to most of us here at Fluwikie. Techniques I have used in this circumstance (and I DO use them) include:

You get the idea. You can have it both ways - still say what you want and have it circulate the globe - with just a few adjustments to how you say it. We here will still get the idea, those elsewhere won’t be quite sure what you said. There is actual and on-the-ground danger associated with repressive regimes - that is not just a figment of anon_22′s imagination.

Those suggestions above may sound kinda simple, but they do the trick and can let us have most of our cake and eat it too. IMHO, the harshest opinions directed at repressive regimes are useful for strategizing and focusing our energy (and I for one want to hear those opinions), but they are dismissed and acted upon in a manner opposite to the way we want by the regimes in question if we hit them with a 2 X 4 anyway. I have a 13yo, and dealing with a repressive regime and needling and cajoling them into doing what you want, and into doing the right thing, is kind of like dealing with one of them. Keep that visual in your mind if you want a repressive regimie to actually do anything. So, for our purposes of defining our arguments and focus, yes, we need to hear even the harshest opinions. In terms of actually moving the parties in question, the harshest opinions will be walked away from anyway. So, it does no harm to use your best pig Latin.

I’m not sure, though, if I will have any suggestions for how to post and word one’s argument if the unsubstantiated accusations of intent to do harm start flying against our English-speaking governments. The one thing I am certain about, though, is that they will, at some point, start flying. We’ll revisit that conversation about unlimited free speech and its consequences then too. Honestly, my personal opinion is that I don’t think we will have to worry about that here (repression and harsh consequences) in the same way that those living under some regimes have to worry about it on a day-to-day basis. But give it 5 minutes and someone will take the contrary position on that too. (Thas al I hav 2 sey noow!)

observer – at 12:37

Unfortunate, because everyone is sure they are right and finds no commonground this experiment falls prey to the same crisis that have brought down families, organizations and govenments.

I came here because here seemed a responsible group. Here away from the shouting and rash claims of other forums on the topic. Here seemed a group focused on the positive. Here you have succumbed to the worse fear we all face - turning on each other. I have seen it on threads before. And I said unfortunate.

Unfortunate for those who are here and for those yet to come. I love freedom of speech beyond which I can or will explain - I also was taught by my wise father that it carries responsibility. He knew this better than most on the wiki - he lived it both ways (free and opressed).

Unfortunate because either way now I may need to seek other places where people choose a constuctive path or maybe I will simply focus on what I know…I have a resonsibility to my family and doing what is right. Its not about me - its about all of us.

anon_22 – at 12:39

Pixie – at 12:35

Thank you! I absolutely agree.

Bird Guano – at 12:40

Edna Mode – at 12:33

I think the contributions to the wiki of both Monotreme and anon_22 are invaluable, and I hope this conflict can be satisfactorily resolved so that the wiki community is able to retain the benefit of both their perspectives going forward. If not, wiki progress on broader goals will, IMO, suffer.


I agree on the value of the contributions of each Edna.

But how does one balance two VERY opposing views on personal freedoms ?

That is the essence of the decisions the mods will have to make, and it’s not an easy one.

In a modern and open civilized society, one could agree to disagree and move on, but we’re not talking modern civilized societies here.

We’re talking one mindset of freedom and open expression (even of the fringe), and another of obsessive control and repression of individual freedoms.

Sadly, I’m not sure that is a conflict that CAN be resolved.

under the radar – at 12:42

Anon_22, I for one, apologize. We just didn’t understand. I shouldn’t speak for others, but I think others must feel the way I do. I would feel exactly the way you do if I were in your shoes.

That being said, Monotreme, I pretty much agree with what you said. I don’t think the Chinese government had the intention of harming the world, though, if that is what you were saying.

I think there is a lot that we are not privy to, regarding the goings on in the world. I think we should just stick to what we’re trying to accomplish here on this site. We all just want to live through the bird flu, right, and we want as many others as possible to do the same.

So we prep, we help others prep. We gether information, as best as we can, and we share the information. We express our feelings and our fears, and gain solace from each other. We have the same goals and intentions. Lets not be be mad or have hurt feelings anymore. Lets just carry on from here and change the subject.

anon_22 – at 12:42

observer,

What you are saying is precisely why I am engaging in this lengthy and painful debate. It is not an easy path, but I truly believe, as Pixie said, that we can have it both ways. Really I do. Just bear with us while we work at this. It is painful but it be worth it.

diana – at 12:44

Pixie, your suggestion reminds me of the translations we get now and then, and can never figure out to anyones satisfaction, or an art critic who can write endlessly on say,a painting of white on white.But in the end no one reading it will get any value from it.

under the radar – at 12:48

Bird Guano, you make such an excellent point in 12:34. I hadn’t really thought of it that way, See, this is what I love, great debate.

Pixie at 12.35, good idea! That is something I will do, that I hadn’t thought of either!

Observer, I agree.

Bird Guano – at 12:48

diana – at 12:44

Pixie, your suggestion reminds me of the translations we get now and then, and can never figure out to anyones satisfaction, or an art critic who can write endlessly on say,a painting of white on white.But in the end no one reading it will get any value from it.


I’m still trying to decipher her original post.

LOL

Bird Guano – at 12:52

Whatever the outcome of this discussion is, I do hope the moderators post their decisions in a separate thread so it’s not buried here amongst the noise.

Personally I’m done with this thread, of which many of you are probably thankful.

under the radar – at 12:53

LOL!

diana – at 12:53

Is it what they call doublespeak. I used to call it goooblygook.

DemFromCTat 12:54

turning on each other.

Frankly, i don’t see that at all. we’re having a grown-up discussion in grown-up terms about a grown-up issue. What comes from this will be good. We will add a disclaimer to the threads that says, in effect,

The opinions expressed here reflect those of the individual posters, and are not those of the editors of Flu Wiki.

For those who have not thought about the issue, this is an education. For those who have not thought about how we would deal, for example, with the issue of rationing when it becomes more than abstract, this, too is an education.

Please understand anon_22 and I are not asking you to avoid controversial topics so much as to be educated as to what make something inflammatory, and be careful when you choose to be deliberately inflammatory. Just like talking to someone in person, that could have consequences.

There are things Flu Wiki is not. We are not a political site and our ability to put pressure on entites is real but limited. There has never been complete free speech here or at any moderated site - we have discussed that since our origins. We depend on participant’s self-retraint much more than our moderation, and for the most part that has worked beautifully for the community. We are simply suggesting more of the same.

c3jmp – at 12:58

so…. folks are concerned about text filters on port 80 traffic? ie, it’s not about endorsing an idea or policy, it’s about avoiding certain types of words or phrases that may trip a filter and result in getting the site banned in an ACL somewhere on a core router for a country/state/whatever? something like that? Americans do take their speech for granted - more so when blogging from home, in the privacy. then the folks that sit behind the router no longer have access to the site - regardless what it contains, or endorses.. and more people die in the end, because they had no source to learn about the disease from. seems like there have been news items over the last few years about countries that restricted access to content - one country comes to mind immediately. somewhere in there? or maybe i’ll go back to lurking..

DemFromCTat 13:03

c3jmp – at 12:58

That’s part of my worry, yes.

Thread getting long… will close and open a new one.

diana – at 13:05

C3mp…. What type of words or phrases would trip a filter and get a site banned. What phrases. It becomes more and more interesting. An Alice in Wonderland, Into the Looking Glass World.

Goju – at 13:07

I think, IMHO… that H5N1 is the result of neccessity and greed.

We gotta eat and it gotta be cheap.

I hold private business and the gov that support overpoplulated, non bio safe mammal and poultry farms responsible. I hold any person or organisation responsible that witholds information needed to wag war on H5N1… or to help us protect ourselves. They know who they are. I hold the present World admins responsible for spending an unbelievable amout of money on their pet projects and agendas and not on Virus research and Vax manufacturing capability (am I sounding like GR?)

i hold all of us on the flu boards responsible for uncovering the truth about the science, treatment and tracking of H5N1 as well as holding each other up in these fast approaching dark times.

We need each other … every one of us… to help get our families through the other side.

Being a Mod is not an easy task. i am listed as a mod on another site and i never once used that power to modify nor delete anyones post. If someone disagreed… let them say so publicly and let the debate begin. Once enough has been said, the thread naturally dissapears.

There was an instance last year of a poster living in China. He one day dissapeared from posting… needless to say, we all thought he had just “dissapeared” as is an accepted way of gov control in some parts of the world. Well, he didn’t. He was just moving back to the states…. but the thought and threat did exist.

We all need to take responsibility of our words. You know when they will be taken harshly. You have the power over the “Post” button. Words can kill or heal.

As my grandfather said to me many years ago, “once the words leave your mouth, they are no longer yours”.

PS - I got really pissed when a mod removed my post one day on another site because they didn’t think it was appropriate.

KimTat 13:10

I have been born and raised in the midwest. I am naive, there is no doubt. I’m naive in my own little corner of the world let alone in the big bad world. Those of us in the USA, come on..we know what other countries think of us in a “general term” we are all a like, controlling…brash, outspoken.

We believe what we were taught in school and have an attitude of idealism that really doesn’t fit the reality of our own lives. I think those of us here are evem more idealistic then most in the general population. We ARE trying to save the world or just our own neighborhoods. How many of us have walked away dejected, amazed that other people are not seeing what we so clearly see.

 We talk about the CDC and the WHO not being forthcoming on details, that the MSM is in cahoots with government officials and other PTB to suppress much needed data that would help to inform and protect the masses. 

Do I believe this…yes and no. To believe and embrace that completely would make me ahh.mmm NUTS because I don’t think every newspaper can be controlled. Can they? Am I being Naive again?

I went to school with a russian doctor some years back, he left before the wall came down. He had to leave all documentations behind and start out from scratch here in the states in his mid 40′s. It was a major frustration for him and his wife and daughter but he was still better off here then back home, he had family still over there and he was very caustious of his attitude to continue to protect them. I don’t want to imagine the daily fear he had of reprisal of his family, its not something I can truley comprehend and hopefully will never have too.

enza – at 13:36

Pixie—I have a 13yo, and dealing with a repressive regime and needling and cajoling them into doing what you want, and into doing the right thing, is kind of like dealing with one of them.

I hear you—great suggestions. BTW I have one of those (13yo) I know what you mean ;-) Seriously, it’s for them and their cohorts (who are most at risk) why I’m here. I may or may not survive when the fan strts, but I hope all my kids make it through and remember me as someone who did evething she possibly could to mitigate the damage that panflu will bring.

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Page last modified on November 04, 2006, at 01:36 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Closing Schools-The Gold Standard

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Closing Schools-The Gold Standard

03 November 2006

Olymom – at 01:03

I attended a community information night on pandemic influenza tonight. The speakers ranged from very good to rather awful. What heartened me the most was our county public health official who says she is working to have it be the policy that schools throughout Washington state will close when (and if) there is a single confirmed case of pandemic influenza.

This is not the official policy yet, but I think it is an excellent one. We see so many negative postings about TPTB and yet here is another one who is reading the tea leaves carefully and planning appropriately.

AnnieBat 01:13

Hurrah - the message is getting through. Closing ‘places of public gathering’ is logical - it won’t stop the spread completely but if it gives a few people a chance of not getting (severely) infected then it has to be good for the community ongoing.

crfullmoon – at 04:22

Good for your county public health official - I hope she gets the message heard up and down.

Blue – at 06:53
 That is gold.

 Fantastic news….I hope it spreads and of course it will.

 What a change in attitude-finally a big, big win for logic and common sense.

 I’m gonna go and have myself one of those cola drinks that Britney prefers!

 !WHOO-HOO!

 (If no one has heard of Washington State, they soon will. This decison will put ‘em on the map I tells ya)
Blue – at 06:55
 “I wanna be like Washington State.”
Green Mom – at 09:02

Washington State-with Seattle leading seems to be doing the most in terms of flu info/planning. I wish other states would pay attention…..

anon_22 – at 09:07

Olymom,

If you live near Seattle, maybe you can consider going to the Public Engagement Project On Community Control Measures. It’s tomorrow, though, so I don’t know if that is enough notice. :-)

I’m sure they can do with your help or support.

Green Mom – at 09:07

I think what we need to do in KY as soon as we hear of any pan-flu, is to announce U.K. and U of L will play each other in a basketball tournament-but there will be no stadium tickets, you can only watch it on tv. That would close all the schools-and most everything else.

barn owl – at 09:35

Olymom – at 01:03 …. county public health official who says she is working to have it be the policy that schools throughout Washington state will close when (and if) there is a single confirmed case of pandemic influenza….

Did she specify what she meant by single confirmed case of pandemic influenza?

in the world? in the US? in Washington?

JV – at 10:23

anon_22 and others -

To go the forum in Seattle tomorrow, unfortunately you must be a resident of King County. It would be great if others could come!

anonymous – at 10:29

They are letting me in and I live in a county north of ‘em. I even told the truth on the application.

crfullmoon – at 10:31

:-D

JV – at 10:44

anon_22 -

I want to go over what the experts are stating as to the latest a TLC program could be instituted.

In Neil Ferguson’s presentaion at IOM, he stated that to achieve a low (total) local attack rate of <4%, the TLC must be implemented (and complied with) before the local attack rate reaches 1%.

So does that mean for a city of 500,000, for the attack rate to end up <4%, the TLC must start before the attack rate reaches 5,000 (1% of 500,000)? This does seem awfully late to wait for 5,000 people to come down with symptoms (and be diagnosed). But this would then mean that if TLC started (in a city of 500,000) before 5,000 people became ill with H5N1, then the total number to become ill would not exceed 20,000 (4% of 500,000). I completely understand that the TLC would have to be quickly put in place, and adhered to fairly well.

I keep reading 1% used as the standard, so that the TLC must start before that attack rate. However, I believe I have also read 3%, which seems way too high.

Also, are there any others who suggest that a lower AR must/should be used to start the TLC. Obvioulsy, this would be better, but do any others actually state that?

Sorry if you have gone over this completely, but I want to nail this concept down for the forum tomorrow. I personally would vote for one person to be diagnosed with H5N1 to start the TLC, but I have to use what the experts have been stating.

JV – at 10:46

anonymous -

I bet that is because they (at least at first) did not have many signing up. See you there!

nsthesia – at 11:47

G, Olymom,

I truly hope Washington State can achieve that goal of school closings. It IS quite a progressive state in many areas.

But hoping is not doing. I am sure there will be many obstacles in the way. Perhaps with a show of informed supporters as above, change can occur. And I agree that a momentum to have schools close early will encourage others to do so also. Being armed with anon’s data is a significant asset.

Good luck, flu warriors!

JV – at 12:21

anon_22 -

I reposted my above question (at 10:44) to the “IMO Workshop Medeling…” thread. I should have placed it there.

Olymom – at 19:31

I can’t do the Public Engagement meeting — too bad, because I’d like to.

Barn owl at 9:35 The official is hoping for a policy that would be enacted when there was one confirmed case in the state of Washington. Fortunately, she is an experienced and well regarded public health official. I think what she says has some weight in the state. I sure hope so.

LauraBat 23:33

Just the fact that closing with only one case shows that they are considering the possiblities and how awful it could be. Washington state and Seattle are way ahead of the prep curve vs so many other parts of the country.

Doug Baker – at 23:58

hmm, one case, that is not a pandamic. If you wait until the number of confimed cases is high enough that it could be a pandamic, then it would be too late.

04 November 2006

janetn – at 00:56

This should be a no brainer. Anon 22 I am gratful that their are people like you who will go to all the time and effort preparing such a airtight straightfoward case. But you shouldnt have to. TPTB should have figured this out a long time ago. That some officials are still debating or even planning on keeping schools open infuriates me. The fact that you any many others are having to waste your time and expertise on this is a shame. Im sure your talents and time [as well as others] could have been spent on many other things. If we have to fight TPTB this hard over something as obvious as closing schools I wonder what hope there really is.

I applaud Washington State, glad to see that in at least a few areas government isnt totally disconnected from common sense

anon_22 – at 02:15

Doug Baker,

the argument for closing schools after 1 confirmed case is because of the rapid, no, explosive spread of a pandemic flu virus. This is discussed with figures on the IOM thread from 14:17 for the next 10 posts approximately. I know its long, but it does take a lot of explanation to fully understand the whole thing.

crfullmoon – at 12:42
 “If we have to fight TPTB this hard over something as obvious as closing schools I wonder what hope there really is.”

janetn, I wonder too. If we get enough information out to enough people, maybe some lives will be saved that wouldn’t have been. As a species, maybe that’s all we can achieve.

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Page last modified on November 04, 2006, at 12:42 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / News Reports for November 3

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: News Reports for November 3

03 November 2006

AnnieBat 00:40

(If you want any of the links to open in a new window, hold down the shift key and then click on the link)

Summary from Indonesia Outbreak as at 2 November 2006

Cases DiscussedJun-06Jul-06Aug-06Sep-06Oct-06Nov-06Total
Died, no tests22436017
Died, tested positive43233015
Other tested positive0131005
Suspected symptoms424638340124
Tested negative0626197058
Totals10148164500219

Lookout Posts – here are the links (if no Lookout Post exists, it will not be highlighted)

Please visit these threads for latest information from these regions or to add news

NoRegion NameNoRegion NameNoRegion Name
1USA8East Africa15Arab Peninsula
2Canada, Greenland and the Arctic Circle9Southern Africa and Madagascar16Central Asia
3Central America and Caribbean10Northwest Europe and British Isles17Southern Asia
4South America and Surrounding Islands11West and Southwest Europe18Mainland East Asia and Japan
5Northern Africa12Central and Southeast Europe19Southeast Asia
6West Africa13Eastern Europe and Baltic Region20Australasia Melanesia and Micronesia
7Central Africa14Middle East and Caucasus Region21Pacific Islands and Antarctic

(Please see the thread Volunteers Needed as Lookouts Worldwide if you want to help)

(Separate threads exist for India, Indonesia and Nepal. See News Summary below for links)


Summary of News for 2 November 2006

(From WHO as at 31 Oct - latest update) Total human cases worldwide 256, deaths 152 (2006 – 109 with 74 deaths)

China

India

Indonesia

Nepal

United Kingdom

United States of America

Vietnam

General

Link to news thread for 2 November (link News Reports for November 2 )
(Usual disclaimer about may not have captured everything. Feel free to add your own where omissions have occurred.)
Please note that I copy the links directly from the thread so if they don’t work you may need to re-visit the Thread.

witness – at 01:18

Health Emergency in Mannar as Virus Fever Spreads—This sounds bad, could someone please find the article and print details. I am out of town on a borrowed computer. Google title or www.tamilnet.com—Thanks

JV – at 01:27

witness -

Here is the article: http://tinyurl.com/wyrmu

AnnieBat 02:40

The article is as follows:

A virus fever is spreading fast in Mannar district and daily hundreds of persons affected by the fever are seeking treatment in the Mannar general hospital and private medical institutions, health officials in Mannar said. Mannar General hospital is overflowing with the large influx of affected civilians, hospital sources said. Mannar hospital authorities are working round the clock to provide treatment to these patients with limited resources. However about twenty patients are admitted daily to the wards in the hospital.

The mysterious virus fever first originated from the village Pallimunai has now spread to all parts of the district including the LTTE held villages, civil sources said. Dispensaries in LTTE held villages experience acute shortage of drugs and related medical facilities due to the restriction in transporting medicines from government controlled areas, sources said.

Medical officers in Mannar general hospital have taken steps to sent blood samples of ten patients in a special vehicle to Medical Research Institute (MRI) in Colombo to identify the details of the virus, sources said. Medical sources speculated that refugees who returned to Mannar from South India recently may have brought the new virus to Mannar area, sources said. [end of story]

From research: Mannar is part of Sri Lanka - an island of 300 sqkm joined by a causeway to the main island. The district includes some of the main island as well.

uk bird – at 04:18

http://tinyurl.com/y6pkvt

UK - Flu pandemic exercise takes shape - Winter Willow

A “real time” simulation exercise is being drawn up by the government that will pull in all parts of the public sector to test the country’s readiness for a flu pandemic.

Exercise “Winter Willow” will take place over at least three weeks from late January and involve officials from cabinet level down to individual health trusts, the police and education authorities across the UK.

Continued.

uk bird – at 04:26

http://tinyurl.com/yxvxfy

WHO report calls H5N1 vaccine stockpiling premature Robert Roos News Editor

Nov 2, 2006 (CIDRAP News) – A group of influenza experts convened by the World Health Organization cautioned today that governments shouldn’t stockpile “pre-pandemic” H5N1 influenza vaccines now, because too little is known about the requirements for an effective vaccine.

The group of 22 scientists, who met for 2 days in September, “agreed that governments should not rush to place orders for pre-pandemic vaccines when so many fundamental scientific questions are still outstanding,” says their report.

The United States and some other countries have been stockpiling H5N1 vaccines, despite lack of assurance that they would be effective against a pandemic strain. Switzerland recently announced plans to buy enough vaccine for the entire Swiss population.

Continued.

FrenchieGirlat 07:34

NEWS - FRANCE - Le Monde, quoting AFP at 10.35 am - http://tinyurl.com/ybf2f4 - Almost complete and verbatim translation in the Lookout Post for West and SouthWest Europe )http://tinyurl.com/yfr4mb?:

The French Health Minister has today stated that France remains in a reinforced vigilance state with respect to avian influenza. […] The government has also put together a civil commission of citizens in charge of imagining what would be life during a flu pandemic. For example, how would hospitals continue to function, how we could continue going shopping, how we could keep our habits to go into work, what day care would be for children. France is well prepared… [said he, not me]

Klatu – at 08:46

Information On Bird Flu Cases Poorly Recorded, Scientists Say

November 3, 2006

Science Daily

“The highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza has been detected in at least 55 countries in Asia, Europe, and Africa. This often fatal disease is of pressing concern because it can be transmitted from birds to humans, although such transmissions have been rare so far.

“Unfortunately, according to a Roundtable article in the November 2006 BioScience, the journal of the American Institute of Biological Sciences (AIBS), critical information about incidence of the disease in wild birds—even the species of the infected bird—is often recorded inaccurately or not recorded at all.’‘’ The deficiencies in data collection, the authors write, “can lead to unwarranted assumptions and conclusions that in turn affect public perceptions, practical control and management measures, and the disposition of resources.”

Bird flu is typically studied by veterinarians and virologists. The article’s authors, Maï Yasué, Chris J. Feare, Leon Bennun, and Wolfgang Fiedler, made use of the Aiwatch (avian influenza watch) e-mail forum to gather information for their article from sources worldwide. They describe several instances in which the species of an infected wild bird was incorrectly or inadequately recorded—sometimes just as “wild duck,” for example—and others in which the bird’s sex and age were misidentified.”

http://tinyurl.com/yd363m

Klatu – at 08:50

Study fingers migrating ducks in bird flu spread

Nov 3/06

Washington, (ANTARA News) - “Migrating ducks, geese, and swans spread the H5N1 bird flu virus from Russia to Romania, Turkey and Ukraine, researchers said on Thursday.

‘’‘A careful analysis of the spread of the virus from central Asia into eastern Europe in the autumn of 2005 shows that wild birds, especially mallard ducks, were the chief spreaders of the virus.

“We conclude that the spread of (highly pathogenic avian influenza) H5N1 virus from Russia and Kazakhstan to the Black Sea basin is consistent in space and time with the hypothesis that birds in the Anatidae family have seeded the virus along their autumn migration routes,” the researchers wrote in the journal Emerging Infectious Diseases.’‘’

Anatidae include geese, ducks and swans, some of which are killed by H5N1, and other species of which often show no ill effects from the virus but which can spread it. Mallard ducks are the main suspect.”

http://www.antara.co.id/en/seenws/?id=22672

Klatu – at 08:55

WHO issues bird flu warning, warns on Tamiflu research

Virulence and resistance discussed

Published Friday 3rd November 2006 11:36 GMT

“The World Health Organisation has warned that there is no guarantee that a pandemic strain of the H5N1 virus will be less deadly to people.The report, published this week, contains the findings of a meeting of flu experts held last month. The method of change will determine how deadly the virus is, the report says. If the virus changes by exchanging genes with a human flu virus, a process called reassortment, a pandemic might not be too deadly. However, straightforward adaptive mutation would leave the virulence of the disease unchanged, the scientists warned.

It also cautioned against regarding the anti-viral drug Tamiflu as a magic bullet, highlighting that some H5N1 viruses seem to already be naturally resistant to the effects of the drug.The report comes less than two weeks after the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (CEH) in the UK issued a warning about the possible environmental effects of large scale use of Tamiflu.

Dr Andrew Singer of the CEH said: “An antiviral drug has never been widely used before, so we need to determine what might happen. During a flu pandemic, millions of people will all take Tamiflu at the same time. Over just eight or nine weeks, massive amounts of the drug will be expelled in sewage and find its way into the rivers. It could have huge effects on the fish and other wildlife.

http://tinyurl.com/yflwfs

Klatu – at 08:59

Ocean 2048: Experts fear collapse of fish species

“JELLYFISH and chips may be one of the few seafood dishes on the menu by 2048, with experts predicting the collapse of almost all forms of marine life.

A study of the world’s underwater eco-systems found that if overfishing and pollution continue amid climate change, then most species will decline to just 10 per cent of historic levels.”

http://tinyurl.com/yflwfs

- Between Tamiflu and Global warming fish don’t have a chance.

cottontop – at 09:10

UKBird @ 04:26 “WHO report calls H5N1 vaccine stockpiling premature…”

CDC places order for 190,000 doses of H5N1 Would you consider this stockpiling?

cottontop – at 09:12

that should read 190,000 doses of H5N1 vaccine.

uk bird – at 09:18

cottontop – at 09:10

CDC places order for 190,000 doses of H5N1 vaccine. Would you consider this stockpiling?

I suppose it depends on how many people you plan on sharing it with :-o

Pixie – at 09:27

Klatu - at 8:46

Information On Bird Flu Cases Poorly Recorded, Scientists Say

(…no kidding……)

Pixie – at 09:32

Many workers fear losing jobs if flu pandemic strikes

11/3/06 8:15 AM / By Bill Leonard

Nearly one-fourth of working Americans say they probably would lose their job or business if forced to stay home for seven to 10 days during a severe flu pandemic, according to a study released on Oct. 27 by the Harvard School of Public Health.

The study found that most U.S. citizens would cooperate during the early stages of a pandemic or health emergency. However, after a week to 10 days, financial needs and worries about losing their jobs or businesses would force nearly 25 percent of the survey respondents back to work. More than one-third (35 percent) of the respondents reported that they would still go to work if public health officials told them to stay home but their employers wanted them to report to work.

“The findings of this survey are a wake-up call for business, that employees have serious financial concerns and are unclear about the workplace plans and policies for dealing with pandemic flu,” said Robert J. Blendon, a professor with the Harvard School of Public Health and co-author of the study.

While the study found that workers are willing to make major changes in their lives and routines to help prevent the spread of the flu, confusion over how to respond to the crisis is evident.

“I believe awareness and planning for a pandemic crisis is better than the survey actually shows, but there is still much that needs to be done and questions answered [about] how the federal government will respond, such as when and how do schools, airports and port facilities close when a pandemic strikes,” said Ann Beauchesne, executive director of the homeland security division of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

<snip> more at http://tinyurl.com/yg4c87

cottontop – at 09:37

Sounds like Who and CDC are in conflict with each other.

TreasureIslandGalat 09:48

CDC is taking this seriously enough to invest the money in a vaccine that is only good for this season since its shelf like is only between 6 months and one year. Does the CDC therefore feel that there is a legitimate threat of bird flu going pandemic within the next year?

This action seems to indicate “yes.”

That action alone should really wake people up… this is real folks. They are spending money now on a short-term risk assessment. And that action also comes right on the heals of the announcement that we may not see a significant drop in virulence when this does go pandemic.

Anonymous for this post – at 10:04

NEWS - World Trade Organization - http://tinyurl.com/ycoen6 - Now, please don’t go thinking this is important, because after reading it, well, it’ll get to nothing, even though there’s money pledged in this action. Still, it’s the first PR I remember on the subject. Title is: “Sanitary and phytosanitary measures - International bodies join forces to advise OIE animal health and welfare fund”.


Comment - After seeing so much published in the last few days from international organizations and in serious newspapers/magazines, I’m seriously wondering if we’re not being slowly primed for dreadful announcements in the next few months… (Or ……….. are every PTB all over the planet waking up at the same time??

Klatu – at 10:06

- It light of continuing communications issues in China, developing a vaccine might be problematic.

WHO blasts China for withholding bird flu samples

“”“We really don’t know how many strains of bird flu there are: WHO’‘’

13:08 03 November 2006 NewScientist.com news service

Bird flu special report, New Scientist

“China’s lack of transparency over its handling of bird flu is making it difficult to determine how the deadly virus is mutating and spreading, a leading World Health Organization official said on Friday.

“The situation in China is quite confusing and there is some conflicting information,” said Julie Hall, the WHO’s coordinator of epidemic alert and response in China. “We really don’t know how many strains of bird flu there are in China because we have limited amounts of information shared with us by the Ministry of Agriculture and the virus samples we have asked for have not been shared.”

Hall’s criticisms come the day China rejected claims by scientists that a new strain of the virus – dubbed the “Fujian-like” strain – has emerged and is spreading rapidly through southern China and neighbouring countries (see New strain of H5N1 bird flu emerges in China).

China’s Ministry of Agriculture said the findings, contained in a report in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, “did not completely conform with facts” and there was no evidence of major changes to the virus since 2004.”

http://tinyurl.com/y4locz

beehiver – at 10:53

The CDC vaccine order of 190,000 doses referred to above, was placed by the CDC in Taiwan (not the U.S.), as seen at this thread. The original source article came from the Taipei Times.

Bronco Bill – at 13:09

NEWS

State waives limit on flu shot for kids

TEMPORARY ORDER ALLOWS VACCINE CONTAINING MERCURY-LACED PRESERVATIVE

California officials agreed Thursday to temporarily allow children under 3 to get flu shots
containing a mercury-laced preservative, after doctors warned that shortages of the mercury-free
version could threaten children’s health.
`We feel it is important to offer this short-term alternative to parents and health care providers
in order to ensure young children are protected from the potentially severe effects of the flu,’‘
Kim Belshé, secretary of the California Health and Human Services Agency, said in a statement.
The exemption affects children under the age of 3 and will last six weeks, giving the manufacturer
of the pediatric vaccine, Pennsylvania-based Sanofi Pasteur, time to ship about 500,000 doses of
the vaccine without the preservative.

[snip]

In the 1990s, some parents and pediatricians became concerned that thimerosal in children’s
vaccines might be connected to a nationwide surge in autism rates.
No scientific evidence links thimerosal to childhood neurological diseases, said Dr. Randy Bergen,
a pediatric infectious-disease specialist at Kaiser Permanente.
He said that while he understands parents’ concerns, `I would have no reservations about giving
this vaccine to my kids, and didn’t have reservations when they were that old.’‘

[snip]

However, a state law banning thimerosal from vaccines given to pregnant women and children younger
than 3 took effect this year, backed by groups that say mercury is linked to autism.
But the law can be waived when the pediatric vaccine is in short supply. That’s what four groups —
the California branch of the American Academy of Pediatrics, the California Medical Association,
the California Academy of Family Physicians and Kaiser Permanente — asked the state to do.

Article may require free registration: On the web here

Klatu – at 13:14

Long intervals of stasis punctuated by bursts of positive selection in the seasonal evolution of influenza A virus

Biology Direct 2006, 1:34 (26 October 2006)

Most influenza gene sequencing is done as part of international surveillance programs whose focus on identifying serologically novel strains, results in biased samples of the viral population. (14,15).

One goal of this project (The Influenza Genome Sequencing Project) was to provide researchers with a large set of sequenced isolates that represent a relatively unbiased, i.e., not enchriched in antigencially novel isolates, view of influenza strains in the population. “(excerpt)

(Provisional PDF)

http://tinyurl.com/vsq3o

DennisCat 13:34

Report: Flu pandemic would kill 2,000 to 5,000 South Carolinians “A pandemic flu by definition would cause at least 1.2 million South Carolinians to fall ill with a novel strain of influenza, forcing an estimated 17,000 into hospitals and killing between 2,000 and 5,000 people….

The 74-page report warns that a pandemic would stress all states and the federal government, and South Carolina would have to be ready to respond with little outside aid….

here is the link to the news article http://tinyurl.com/ygxqfm

and this is the link to the report itself (large pdf) http://tinyurl.com/ykhe4o

Homesteader – at 14:03

Report: Flu pandemic would kill 2,000 to 5,000 South Carolinians “A pandemic flu by definition would cause at least 1.2 million South Carolinians to fall ill with a novel strain of influenza, forcing an estimated 17,000 into hospitals and killing between 2,000 and 5,000 people….

And then goes on to state “would last 6 weeks in a community.”

Where did they pull their Pandemic definition from? LaLa Land? South Carolina has a population of around 4,000,000. Even with the most optimistic CFR available their 1.2 million cases should result in a somewhat higher number of deaths, like 24,000 deaths at a 2% CFR. IMHO, of course.

AnnieBat 14:07

(Although this story isn’t new to us, the headline used in a mainstream news source is pleasantly surprising.)

WHO issues startling bird flu report

The World Health Organization has just completed a report that raises startling concerns about the so-called Bird Flu. While the virus has killed millions of birds, mostly in Asia, overseas there has been a minute number of human infections. To date, according to the WHO, 256 people have been infected and 152 of those have died. That’s nearly a 60 percent death rate.

And in the new report, the WHO says if the virus becomes easily transmissible between people as a result of mutation,”.. then the present high lethality could be maintained during a pandemic.”

The report also raises concern about vaccine. It says, “Efforts to develop a vaccine that confers adequate protection have been greatly complicated by the emergence of … diverse viruses…” The report adds “.. Decisions about which vaccines to stockpile may be premature.”

Infectious Disease expert Dr. Michael Osterholm says, “We have no evidence that these vaccines will protect, and on top of it, we just don’t have the production capability.” So even if an effective vaccine is created, it most likely can’t be manufactured fast enough to be distributed to all those who would need it.

(link http://tinyurl.com/ydbqq3)

Sorry, I tried to get the picture from the story as well but have no idea how to make it stick in here. It is worth a look at (IMHO anyway).

Klatu – at 15:00

Evolution and Spread of Fujian H5N1 In China

Recombinomics Commentary

November 3, 2006

The authors believe it is likely that the spread of this new sub-lineage represents a third wave of the H5N1 panzootic. The first wave occurred in early 2004, primarily in Southeast Asia. The second wave started with the outbreak in migratory waterfowls at Qinghai Lake in the spring of 2005 and spread to Europe and Africa. Now this FJ-like sub-lineage is replacing the previously predominant H5N1 strains throughout much of southern China.

Unless the ministry tell us what’s going on and shares viruses on a regular basis, we will be doing diagnostics on strains that are old.” Delays in sharing also make it impossible for manufacturers to access the expected efficacy of vaccine candidates under development.

“The above comments indicate a review of the history and status of the Fujian H5N1 in southern China is in order. 

The report included addition human isolates, which all had the novel cleavage site.  Similarly, sequences from multiple poultry outbreaks were compared to the prototype isolate and most were over 98–99% homologous, indicating that the H5N1 in China in early 2006 was primarily the Fujian strain.

Additional sequences from Laos and Malaysia, deposited at Los Alamos in March 2006 also had the novel cleavage site as did wild bird isolates from Hong Kong deposited in June, 2006.  In August WHO came out with pandemic target recommendations, which included the Fujian strain, which was classified as Clade 2 sub-clade 3.

Thus, although the recent PNAS publication provided data on increasing frequency of detection of the Fujian strain in China, as well as the low antibody titers to the Fujian strain, the presence of the Fujian strain in China has not produced major changes in long range migratory birds carrying the Qinghai strain to Russia, Mongolia, India, Afghanistan, Europe, the Middle East or Africa.  Similarly, there has not been an impact on the Indonesian strain of H5N1 in Indonesia.

The sequences of the Fujian strain may impact these strains, but there has been no evidence of the Fujian strain replacing these endemic strains outside of eastern China or Southeast Asia.  However, these is evidence of exchange of genetic information via recombination. 

 However, virtually all of the H5N1 HPAI isolates to the west of China, as described above were the Qinghai strain.

Thus, the surveillance in eastern and southern China has not picked up the Qinghai strain until 2006, when the first and only isolate was deposited at Genbank in association with the PNAS publication.  It is closely related to the Qinghai isolates from Qinghai Lake, but the less common polymorphisms are found in east Asian H5N1 instead of the Qinghai isolates to the west. 

Thus, there is no evidence that the Fujian strain is replacing the Qinghai strain in southern China because the Qinghai strain has only been detected once in eastern China, and that isolate was from 2006.

Similarly, there is no evidence of the Indonesian strain being replace by either the Qinghai or Fujian strain.  On Bali isolate had the Qinghai cleavage site on an Indonesian genetic background, but there have been no H5H1 isolates outside of southern China and southeast Asia that have had the Fujian cleavage site.

Thus, the Fujian strain may be replacing the H5N1 isolate like the 2003 prototype …..”

- excerpts

http://tinyurl.com/ya5k57

DennisCat 15:58

Bird flu drill ruffles feathers

Winnipeg — There are no chickens and the sky isn’t falling.

The Canadian Food Inspection Agency confirmed Friday its officials have been engaged in a mock avian influenza outbreak that has frightened hundreds of residents in southern Manitoba.

People living near Steinbach have seen workers in white bio-hazard suits near the community, prompting at least 100 phone calls and e-mails to radio stations as far away as Winnipeg with questions as to what is going on.

An official with the food agency in Calgary, who didn’t want to be publicly identified, said there is no actual outbreak. But she confirmed the agency is testing both the equipment and procedures that would be needed if avian flu hit.

http://tinyurl.com/ygl4sa

AnnieBat 15:59

Bird flu drill ruffles feathers

Canadian Press Winnipeg — There are no chickens and the sky isn’t falling.

The Canadian Food Inspection Agency confirmed Friday its officials have been engaged in a mock avian influenza outbreak that has frightened hundreds of residents in southern Manitoba.

People living near Steinbach have seen workers in white bio-hazard suits near the community, prompting at least 100 phone calls and e-mails to radio stations as far away as Winnipeg with questions as to what is going on.

An official with the food agency in Calgary, who didn’t want to be publicly identified, said there is no actual outbreak. But she confirmed the agency is testing both the equipment and procedures that would be needed if avian flu hit.

(link http://tinyurl.com/ygl4sa)

On the fence and leaning – at 16:43

It doesn’t mention the illness but this one set off some internal alarms for some reason. Maybe it’s the fact that she made it so far and died of something here.

http://wtopnews.com/?nid=25&sid=963567

ROCKVILLE, Md. — An unidentified woman found last month at a Metro station has died, and Montgomery County Police are asking for the public’s help in identifying her.

The woman died Thursday and was found unconscious and suffering from a life-threatening illness two weeks ago at the Shady Grove metro station, police say.

She remained hospitalized until her death, but did not allow doctors to treat her and showed signs of mental illness, police say.

Police say the woman suffered from amnesia and referred to herself as “Happy Richard” and had recently arrived from Egypt.

Anyone with information should call the Montgomery County Police’s non-emergency number at 301–279–8000.

JWB – at 16:53

OMG.

Not the “Happy Richard” virus too!

 Lord, when will it end!
On the fence and leaning – at 17:02

;-)

Leo7 – at 17:04

More evidence for genetics and severity of flu symptoms;

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. (Nov. 3, 2006) _ With lessons from the 1918 flu pandemic in the rearview mirror and the avian flu a looming obstacle in the road ahead, researchers from Southern Illinois University School of Medicine are trying to understand why a flu virus kills some people but not others.

With the help of some high tech equipment, well-defined mouse models and lots of analytical know how, physiologists are beginning to hone in on the secret to this differential response. It’s probably in the genes – and the proteins they encode.

Two studies to be presented at The American Physiological Society conference “Physiological Genomics and Proteomics of Lung Disease” have found that a strain of mice that is more likely to die of influenza infection mounts a dramatically enhanced immune response in the lungs compared to a strain of mice that generally develops milder disease.

http://tinyurl.com/yf2ohl

Patch – at 17:28

TreasureIslandGal @ 9:48

And that action also comes right on the heals of the announcement that we may not see a significant drop in virulence when this does go pandemic.

“When” this goes pandemic? I read that same news release many times and never saw it say “when”.

I understand what you are saying though. IF it goes pandemic, let’s hope for a reassorted virus, that tames that sucker down!

AnnieBat 18:04

India all set to fight bird flu

ECONOMY BUREAU Posted online: Saturday, November 04, 2006 at 0041 hours IST

NEW DELHI, NOV 3: India is fully prepared to control any outbreak of avian influenza, said a government release after the country was declared ‘free of the disease’ in August, this year. According to the release, the government’s strategy to fight out the disease includes continued surveillance throughout the country, especially in areas where bird flu outbreak was noticed in February this year.

More than 73,000 samples have been tested at the high security animal disease laboratory (HSADL) in Bhopal since the first outbreak. Routine surveillance combined with active and focused surveillance in vulnerable areas is being continued to ensure early detection in case of fresh outbreak. The government’s will also give thrust to training human resources and dissemination of information on bird flu to reduce the risk of human transmission effectively in the event of any outbreak.

Modalities for sharing virus isolates of bird flu are being worked out between the Indian Council of Agriculture Research (ICAR) and the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR).

Training of veterinary personnel to undertake control and containment operations for avian influenza is being continued as a priority activity. The department of animal husbandry, dairying and fisheries has developed a training module for the disease which has been tested through a two-day conference at Pune and has been circulated to the regional level. Training of veterinarians is being regularly conducted by the department.

Link http://tinyurl.com/yc67k2

mojo – at 18:25

I got this in my email today. Apologies if it already has been posted

CQ HEALTHBEAT NEWS Nov. 1, 2006 – 5:14 p.m. DHS Should Take Lead Role in Monitoring Pandemic Preparations, Report Finds By Cheyenne Hopkins, CQ Staff

The Department of Homeland Security should take the lead in monitoring pandemic flu preparedness plans in the public and private sector, a report by the Financial Services Roundtable recommended on Wednesday.

The report also said as many as 40 percent of workers would stay at home for extended periods of time in the event of a pandemic, contrasting the results of a survey released last month. (See related story, CQ HealthBeat, Oct. 26, 2006). Given this loss in workforce, the report said it’s essential that private and public bodies continue to function.

The report, titled “Preparing for Pandemic Flu: A Call to Action,” contains preliminary findings by the roundtable’s Blue Ribbon Commission on Mega-Catastrophes. A final report will be released in April 2007.

Robert Litan, vice president for research and policy at the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation in Kansas City, Mo., and a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said the key finding of the study is that the government is not ready for a pandemic.

Among the 22 recommendations, the report calls on every organization, public and private, to develop a pandemic plan. It recommends that private sector organizations collaborate with each other and the DHS, along with the Treasury Department, to facilitate these efforts. It also calls for private sector firms to develop triggers for the implementation of a pandemic response plan.

The roundtable recommends that the U.S. government allocate $10 billion more than the $7 billion already committed to accelerate flu preparation.

Tara O’Toole, chief executive officer and director of the Center for Biosecurity at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, said most importantly that funding is needed and that the federal government currently does not have pandemic preparation at the top of its list. She said a lack of vaccine stockpile preparedness would “collapse” the U.S. health care system.

“This is a looming threat and it’s not going to go away,” O’Toole said. She encouraged businesses to use their influence to pressure the federal government to act more aggressively.

Annie Searle, senior vice president and divisional executive for the Enterprise Risk Services Technology Solutions Group of Washington Mutual, said it currently is unclear to businesses if the expense for a plan is justified and called on the DHS to be more aggressive in monitoring businesses’ plans.

Searle said a pandemic outbreak would be unlike any other disaster banks have faced because of the coordination barrier it would create. She said a priority will be for banks to keep cash flowing, but a decrease in workers due to a pandemic would hinder financial institutions.

The report calls for the Federal Reserve to lend money to local banks to enable the financial institutions to keep functioning in the event of a pandemic.

Litan said the financial sector is at the leading edge on preparedness but it also is dependent on other sectors that are lagging behind.

For example, according to O’Toole, hospitals are not preparing because of lack of funding and the complication of implementing a plan.

The report also calls for the federal government to expedite flu vaccination development. The federal government currently plans to be able to produce enough vaccine to inoculate all Americans within 6 months of an outbreak by 2011. The report said this is not a “workable plan” and access to a vaccine should be available well before 2011.

To speed up vaccine development, the report calls on the federal government to take the lead in funding research and development of vaccine production and to not rely solely on cell-based technologies as the only alternative to egg-based production — the method currently used.

It also calls on the Department of Health and Human Services to regularly evaluate its vaccine priority plans and the federal government to explore ways to license the use of technologies that will significantly increase vaccine production capacity.

On Sept. 26, the House passed a bill (HR 5533) that would create a new agency, within HHS, to lead efforts to discover and produce vaccines for potentially disastrous diseases, but the Senate has not acted.

AnnieBat 18:28

Mojo - any chance of a link to the original newsletter?

mojo – at 18:31

I also got a pdf with this titled Preparing for pandemic flu A call to Action an Interim Report by the Blue Ribbon Commission on Mega Catastrophes of the Financial services Roundtable. if anyone would like it email me and I will send it on. I have no idea how to put it up here.

mojo – at 18:35

AnnieB, no I don’t have a link but I do have the pdf file.

anon_22 – at 18:46

mojo,

Can you email that to me at anon_22 AT hotmail DOT co DOT uk

thanks!

KimTat 18:47

right click on your mouse over the pdf file, either pick “copy shortcut” or “check properties” and copy and paste link—works alot of times.

mojo – at 19:03

Anon_22, It is on the way. KimT the pdf was attached to an email so there is no link unless I am totally missing it. It is an interestsing pdf so I hope anon_22 can figure out how to share it.

anon_22 – at 19:12

thanks, I will get Dem to upload it to the ftp. Give us a day, cos I think he is not on right now.

Olymom – at 19:24

Our local community information night made the local paper. Link:

http://www.theolympian.com/112/story/48725.html

The speakers were pretty blunt:

First responders would be delayed if they were able to respond at all.

Hospital emergency rooms would overflow. Schools would close for weeks, if not months. And with as much as 30 percent of the work force too sick to show up at their jobs, public utilities, banks, grocery stores, pharmacies and other vital services could be compromised.

That’s why people must be prepared to care for themselves should a pandemic flu outbreak hit Washington state, state and local health officials said Thursday at an informational meeting sponsored by Griffin School District.

“If there is a major flu pandemic, the medical system as we know it will collapse,” said John Hautala, a physician at Mason General Hospit

Frank – at 19:27

Here it is: http://www.fsround.org/publications/pdfs/PANDEMICFinal.pdf

Tiger Lily – at 20:01

‘Bird flu to remain major threat for next decade: UN ’

By AFP First Published: November 3, 2006

CAIRO: Avian influenza is likely to remain a significant global threat for animals and humans for the next decade, top UN coordinator David Nabarro said Thursday.

“The virus is likely to be with us for the five or ten years to come,” he told AFP in an interview.

According to the UN’s health agency, the highly pathogenic H5N1 strain of the virus has been confirmed in 256 humans worldwide since the first outbreak in 2003. It was lethal in at least 152 cases.

Nabarro, who was tasked last year by the world body with containing the crisis, warned that the international community had to remain on high alert for the possible mutation of the virus into one communicable between humans.

“The risk of a mutation to cause pandemic is still very much there,” he said. “As long as the virus is present in birds, there will also be a threat of sporadic human infection, and a possibility of a mutation which would cause at the end of the day a pandemic.”

“Trying to estimate the potential mortality of a pandemic is very hard. What I’ve already said is that you could have of range of between five and 150 million” deaths, said Nabarro.

“It’s the reason why I do think we a have to put now plenty of energy towards a long term reform of the poultry farming techniques, in order to reduce the risks of human infection.”

Nabarro said frequent occurrences of sporadic human infections meant the virus would not be eliminated for some time, but he voiced his hope that efforts deployed to combat the virus in recent months would have increased preparedness for a pandemic.

“The difference now is that countries all over the world are much more geared up to deal with this phenomenon than they were a year ago. It gives me some hope that when the virus appears in a new country, it can be controled,” he said.

On a recent visit to Cairo to attend a global health research forum, Nabarro praised the Egyptian authorities’ performance in handling the bird flu outbreak.

With seven lethal human cases in less than a year, Egypt is the hardest-hit non-Asian country.

http://tinyurl.com/txzgh

Anon_451 – at 20:27

As a side note, check out the Nepal Thread as that is getting real interesting.

04 November 2006

DennisCat 00:02

I have problem with Hungarian but … it seems that a 25 year old Chinese man has been rushed to a hospital in Kárpátalja,Ukraine. I don’t know much more but it is listed under epidemic warning.

http://tinyurl.com/y3os7h

AnnieBat 00:22

I am just starting the News Summary so you might like to hold your posting for about 30 minutes …

Cheers and thanks

AnnieBat 00:38

Sorry - I have been interrupted - have to leave for about 20 minutes -

carry on without me on this thread and I will start the new one when I get back

Cheers

Nimbus – at 11:14

Roche cuts price for flu drug

Preparing for avian flu pandemic, increased production capacity for Tamiflu

<snip>

On Friday, George Abercrombie, head of North American operations for Swiss pharmaceutical giant Roche, spoke about how Roche is preparing for an outbreak of avian flu during a forum at the N.C. Biotechnology Center.

Roche makes Tamiflu, one of two antiviral drugs that are effective against the avian flu virus. It also makes and markets Fuzeon, an HIV/AIDS treatment discovered by Durham-based Trimeris.

Abercrombie, a former Glaxo Wellcome executive in Research Triangle Park, talked to staff writer Sabine Vollmer about Roche’s avian flu plans and Trimeris.

Q What steps has Roche taken to prepare?

It takes nine to 12 months to make Tamiflu, and global sales average about 5 million courses of treatment per flu season. We cannot simply flip a switch and make Tamiflu in the case of a pandemic. To help governments stockpile the drug, Roche has lowered the price it charges governments by about 60 percent and increased production capacity to about 400 million courses of treatment per year. A course of treatment is 10 capsules.

Roche also came up with a response plan [for its own operations], which includes factoring in an employee absenteeism rate of about 40 percent at the height of an outbreak and stockpiling basic supplies to continue production.

<snip>

http://www.newsobserver.com/104/story/506208.html

Nimbus – at 11:15

oops will repost on Nov 4 thread - sorry!

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.NewsReportsForNovember3
Page last modified on November 04, 2006, at 11:15 AM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Preparedness Response Guide

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Preparedness Response Guide

20 October 2006

Bluebonnet – at 10:35

At last I received the document regarding the TMC’s preparedness response.

PANDEMIC FLU TMC PREPAREDNESS RESPONSE GUIDE

Mission TMC and its neighbor institutions will have coordinated response for potential pandemic flu outbreak. The plan will incorporate an integrated response from member institutions administration, medical staff, public health, city, county and state resources. TMC and member institutions will aid in the triage, medical management and distribution of patients while maintaining a safe environment for the healthcare community as well as allowing concurrent patient care to continue for non-flu patients. The overriding goal is prevention of and infection control during a pandemic.

Overview Management of a pandemic in a large urban setting requires careful attention to traffic and security in and around the TMC. Once patients and employees have accessed the medical center a solid communications plan must be in place to maintain throughput in the healthcare system. The healthcare community needs to be able to triage patients to the appropriate level of care and then respond with treatment centers to deliver supportive care. The response will be a tiered response, so as to mitigate the incident with appropriate levels of resources. Policies and procedures will be developed for uniformity.

Infection Control An active surveillance system will notify caregivers and decision makers of infection prevalence. Spread of disease can be controlled by the following: Proactive vaccination of all residents and particularly healthcare providers, Implementation of standard and droplet precautions for infected individuals, prophylactic antiviral medications, hygiene education and etiquette. Cross contamination preventions entails: triaging off-site, transportation plans, PPE use by caregivers, active cleansing and disinfection of non-disposable resources, waste disposal, discharging patients to a safe environment, and protocols for management of the deceased.

Security and Traffic Control TMC and member institutions have MOU (memorandum of understanding) with city and county entities to provide perimeter security for the TMC. Access to TMC will be carefully controlled so as to protect the integrity of the treating institutions. Security will control access to and from the TMC via a predetermined traffic plan. The plan will allow access for employees, essential personnel, and supplies, while allowing controlled access for patients and visitors. Hospitals need to append current hospital disaster plans to include the advent of a pandemic flu outbreak, addressing unique aspects of a pandemic flu outbreak, security and crowd control, cross contamination, segregation of patients, patient tracking, controlled access.

Communications Communication plan calls for all communications to and from the TMC to occur through a central command post to allow coordinated communications and to eliminate duplication. External communications should be coordinated via a public information officer to ensure consistency of messages to the community that will follow predetermined policies and procedures. Internal communications will utilize standard devices including web-based dissemination of the following: Policies and procedures, current pandemic status, personnel and facility assignments, TMC status, triage status, EMS status. Secure web based patient tracking and monitoring should be instituted with possible link to EMSystem. The web can be utilized by peripheral healthcare providers to notify of pre-triaged inbound patients. Public information can also be distributed via the web.

Medical Management and Surge Capacity Medical response will be tiered with increasing levels of care and resource utilization. The thresholds for upgrading the tiered response will be determined and consistent across the community. Community wide checklists will be developed to define the tier as well as triage. Triage of patients will occur offsite from the TMC. Triage will occur at pre-established triage facilities as well in community healthcare clinics and physician offices. Standardized triage protocols will be established for consistent assignment of level of care, these protocols will be distributed to all healthcare providers and pre-determined triage facilities. Once triaged, patients will be treated and managed according to the level of care needed: Patients requiring ICU or higher levels of support will be triaged to hospitals with appropriate resources, patients may be triaged to ward facilities (i.e. Astrodome or George R. Brown), patients may be triaged to home with follow-up. Surge capacity will be monitored by the TMC and public health. Protocols will be established for the handling and management of medical records, patient registration, patient and staff safety, cross contamination. If the need arises, a hospital, based on pre-determined criteria, may be assigned as a Pandemic Hospital, for the treatment and management of large populations of critically ill patients.

Policies and Procedures The document being produced will be a living document with intrinsic properties allowing for modification as the nature of the pandemic changes. The guidelines serve to allow institutions to develop their own specific policies and procedures, while promoting inter-institutional cooperation. The TMC command will assist an inter-institutional cooperation as well as integration of institution specific plans. The pandemic flu response needs to allow for business continuity for non-flu patients.

The above is the overview section of the document. Each of the main topics are then spelled out in more detail. The document is 44 pages long.

Somes items of interest:

  1. Security will be provided with PPEs
  2. Leave will be granted to non-essentials non-punatively.

There are several appendices that were not provided.

Petticoat Junction – at 10:49

Wow, Bluebonnet, thanks for sharing. There is a LOT packed into those words. I’m know each little phrase (ie - “protocols for management of the deceased”) has pages and pages of additional information underlying it. It’s encouraging to see active planning at that level of detail.

The one thing that really jumps out at me is the centralization of communication and standards among different parts of the med center, community health providers, and city/county officials. If they can really pull that off, I think it will go a long way to reducing chaos and, hopefully, some panic (at least the panic that would result from seeing the health grid go down). I think survival chances in your area have gone up.

Wonder if they’d send a copy of their plan up-state? ;o)

Bluebonnet – at 10:53

PJ - I have converted the file to a pdf but don’t know how to upload it onto the Wiki.

Mods - any suggestions?

The plan is not perfect by any means. They are relying on outlying hospitals and doctor’s offices to do most triage.

They only need to close 4 roads to seal off the Medical Center.

Another interesting thing that happened yesterday - we ran out of flu vaccine! We are currently in our seasonal flu vaccine mode and the response has been enormous among employees.

Also, another hospital here has told employees that if they don’t get the flu shot, they must fill out paperwork acknowledging that the shot was made available to them and that they refused. Never been done before.

History Lover – at 11:59

Bluebonnet - I must have missed some earlier postings? What is TMC? By the way, I’m passing this along to others and also would like the PDF version when it’s available.

Bluebonnet – at 12:23

History Lover - The Texas Medical Center in Houston, TX. It consists of 8 hospitals and several medical schools.

23 October 2006

EnoughAlreadyat 00:38

Bluebonnet--- I can’t believe how this seems to have slipped under the fluwiki radar. This is among the world’s largest medical centers, with the most modern, and best equipped facilities!! Thank you!

Mission: of TMC & neighbor institutions (OK, that IS good news!) will have coordinated response… intergrated response… hmmmmm, “concurrent patient care for non-flu patients” (I hope they are right. But, I also worry that they aren’t even considering the potential of this thing… which is exactly what I am being told.)

Overview: sounds like quarantine of some kind

Infection control: triaging off site (I have heard some rumors here), PPE for caregivers (so, what is it?), they are putting alot of stock in “transportation” syestems

Security and traffic control: “perimeter security”, access to TMC carefully controlled, “predetermined traffic plan”, “crowd control”

Communications: public information officer and “web”

Surge capacity: “determined and consistent across the community”… hmmmmm, they do realise the size of Houston and the “community”… they have that many HCW’s they “know” won’t get sick?? *Astrodome and George Brown Center… triaged home for follow up. Pandemic Hospital assigned… again… crunch the numbers.

Policies and Procedures: “as the pandemic changes” … do they understand “tsunami”… I, II, III? “business continuity for non-flu patients”- gawd, I hope they are right. If not, just damn.

I am glad they are acknowledging this, however, I still think they are absolutely convinced there is no way it will be catastrophic. During “normal flu” outbreaks those TMC emergency rooms are packed like sardines. And good lord, what if there is a hurricane or tropical storm or something else… what a fricken nightmare.

Well, on another note: My husband just returned from NYC where he was part of a task force for emergency planning for the NE seaboard. Mayor of NYC and some other elected officials were there. There are some people very concerned about this, or even “something” like this, occuring and the impact it would have on the citizens in communities.

Thanks again Bluebonnet for posting this!!

Bluebonnet – at 07:54

You are most welcome, Enough!

From what I understand, most of the healthcare workers from the TMC will NOT be allowed in. They will be assigned to perimeter hospitals. I don’t too much about other large urban areas, but most of the hospitals in the Medical Center in Houston have affiliated hospitals in the suburbs. I’ve been told that nurses, techs, etc. will be assigned to those hospitals nearest to where they live.

Yes, they plan to block off the Medical Center and allow access at only 3 points - one for patients in the immediate area, one for heavily id’d HCWs, and one for ambulances.

I agree with you I just don’t think they have come to grips with how catastrophic this may be. My fear is that despite a good plan - they will be completely innundated at the very beginning.

mj – at 08:06

Bluebonnet – at 10:53 Having to sign a form saying the flu shot was offered is because of Joint Commission this year. It’s new. We have to do it here too. It’s to prove it was offered, you didn’t slip thru the cracks in not getting it. Covers the corp. so the employee can’t come back and say “you didn’t give it to me and now…” Also encourages getting it, to protect those around you.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 09:02

Communications: public information officer and “web”….and if both are down???? I hear a lot of people shouting, “I don’t know….there’s no one to tell us what to do!”

24 October 2006

Bluebonnet – at 09:09

mj - thanks for the info re: Joint Commission. Hadn’t heard about this before. But it definitely made some folks at TCH stop and think!

Workin’ - exactly! I also understand TPTB here are very, very concerned with the grid going down. So how in heck are they going to do a web site?

Some of it is good - some of it makes ya go, HUH?

TXNurseat 11:57

I think having a plan is way above what most hospitals are doing (mine) but I still firmly believe Hospitals will be come completely overwhelmed very early on, and healthcare workers/hospitals the first to succumb to a panflu. I work in an ICU for many years now, and I know how many hosp. departments are in and out of each patients rooms in a 12 hour period. In a normal scenario….you have a patient who is admitted for chest pain, rule out MI. Lab comes in and draws blood, and continues to go about to all the other floors (tele, med/surg, maternal child health, etc.) for other blood draws (no PPE’s worn), next comes radiology, takes a chest film and continues on their way… Cardiopulmonary comes in and does an echo on pt. and continues on their way…housekeeping comes in and empties trash, and continues to other rooms/floors….family & friends visit, and then go on their way (again no PPE’s worn) lab comes in later in the day for the next blood draw….you get the picture! Final diagnosis : the man did not have a heart attack…but is in the first stages of H5N1..shedding virus but still asymptomatic. There is no way to isolate or contain H5N1 in a hospital!!! I know my hosp. only has PPE’s for maybe a week in any normal situation. JIT delivery will be the death of many of us!

Bluebonnet – at 12:00

TXNurse - It’s exactly that way at my hospital, too. I think they plan to do flu screening at physician’s offices. Riiiight!!!

TXNurseat 12:04

Now that really makes me laugh…

25 October 2006

EnoughAlreadyat 00:47

I’ve “heard” the plan is to set up triage centers at neighborhood schools. Part of the plan is to be able to have the life flight helicopters land and take off. Like I said, it’s a rumor. (Hope there is fuel for those life flights.) Also have heard veternarians are being considered as fill-in for local areas, especially outliers.

Personally, I don’t think the medical community is taking this as much of a real threat. I sure hope they are right. All I know is, I have never seen such global hoopla about warning people to prepare in my entire life. Not even for the Cuban Missile Crisis… & I was smack in the middle of that one.

26 October 2006

FloridaGirlat 17:19

Bluebonnet – at 10:53

I, too, would like to have a copy of the document.

If you email it to DemFromCT and Dude… It might can be posted in the large file communication area.

bump – at 17:22

01 November 2006

bump – at 17:06

03 November 2006

c3jmp – at 03:04

i’ve been out of EMS for a long time. i don’t know how dark a scenario folks are planning for, but if petroleum products beome unavailable, local EMS may be able to continue using their med units for care. the units i used to work on had 2 12V batteries, and with the advent of LED lighting, folks could put a few solar panels on top of a type 3, and have a fairly useable exam facility. the gas trucks we used to run only got 4 mpg, and perhaps that has improved, but they’re not generally designed for fuel efficiency. they do have radios, inverters, exam lighting, suction, and a number of features that would prove more useful than setting up in a tent. they might also be useful for isolation facilities. the trucks we had, all had shorelines, so if AC power is available, the internal power capability would be considerably greater. i don’t know where old ambulances go - we always retrofitted ours - but old units could be used, as well.

anonymous – at 03:38

Hospitals and the health care system cannot reasonably plan to provide care for every case in a pandemic. There are not enough HCW to provide care for 10% - or 20% or 80% - of the population, even if supplies and space existed and all HCW were available.

All they can do is plan for a maximum possible effort for as long as they can sustain it with the people and supplies available. At the end of that effort, the hospitals will have expended all their resources, and will completely cease to function.

They are hoping that they can outlast a pandemic. If not, they will go down fighting.

crfullmoon – at 03:54

good points c3jmp, I wonder if citizens would chip in, once they understood the need for adding solar (and, a cache of backup supplies and drugs, for the EMTs?) to ambulances?

Rather than isolation, they might be needed to provide non-flu care to essential workers and first responders who get injured, have MIs, ect. (If there’s some mental health providers in the neighborhood, sounds like they’ll be needed too. If they’re ready.)(How can they be, they’re only human?)

What about women in labor that can’t get near a hospital? Would any doctors or midwives with low-tech expertise need an ambulance, or an old one under a tent, set up in their neighborhood, or, where the most need is, and, get volunteer security details (official ones or if they’re going to be busy, registered gun owners that live close by, to take turns)? (Smart gang members that want to protect the medical workers in their area??)

Just on my first cup of coffee; some units might help with unattended death pronouncement, id, and death certificates, if we could get the emergency legislation to ease laws during pandemic. (And start printing the forms out now…)Even if the EMT’s were doing care, a tent nearby could have the other person needed to do the paperwork, and sign off with the EMT, Dr. or hcw at the ambulance who could look at the bodies from a “10′pole distance”. The other person could be faith community leader, justice of the peace, some other municipal employee whose regular desk job is not happening…? Then other volunteers or family members could take the body to the nearest cemetery, by whatever methods are locally available.

TMC: Proactive vaccination of all residents and particularly healthcare providers with what? I heard what HHS Sec.Leavitt said about vaccine availability.

What are the details, and are the staff stocked up at home and ready, and is there fuel and security for “waste disposal, discharging patients to a safe environment”, and “let’s hear the detail of those “protocols for management of the deceased.”

(Is that the time?! Why did I make coffee? I thought it was a couple of hours later than this - oops…)

crfullmoon – at 04:00

anonymous – at 03:38 but, I don’t want the pool of trained health care providers to cease to exist.

Let the public know what providing for living and dying at home may entail, and make sure some of the trained health care people are held in reserve for post-pandemic recovery; if some want to volunteer, ok, of course I honor them, but, if some need to stay SIP with their families, they will not have an easy road later either, and we need the skilled people without the building more than we need the physical structure of the hospital without and nurses or doctors, ect.

crfullmoon – at 04:02

“They are hoping that they can outlast a pandemic”

Pandemics last more than two weeks; I don’t think it is reasonable to go through the motions of only preparing for a Cat.1 hurricane with a Cat.5 off the coast, just because some refuse to look at the weather report, or, to let it be broadcast to the public…

Bluebonnet – at 10:00

My understanding of the plan is that TMC will be used only for the most critical flu patients. Houston is ringed by outlying hospitals affiliated with the larger hospitals in the Texas Medical Center.

The current thinking is to “hold the line” at the TMC. This means that most folks will be referred to outlying hospitals and that only the sickest of the sick will be transported to the TMC.

The TMC will still be open (how long - who knows?) for heart surgeries, high risk OBGN deliveres, car accidents and other traumas.

Ben Taub Hospital is a Level 1 Trauma Center located in the heart of the TMC, one of only two in the Harris County area. This 650 licensed-bed acute care facility is one of the nation’s busiest trauma centers, caring for over 108,000 emergency patients each year. This Trauma Center must remain open.

The other alternative Trauma Center is at UTMB in Galveston.

My own institution is a specialized hospital. We will close our doors and accept ICU patients (non-flu) from the other hospitals in order to free up space there. My hospital will not and does not treat flu victims.

As anonymous put it - they are hoping to go down with a huge fight!

The plan is not perfect but at least it is a start. Right?

Sniffles – at 10:09

Bluebonnet – at 10:00 Out of curiosity, has your hospital stated what would happen if a patient was admitted but later became ill with the flu? Would that patient be discharged regardless of their condition? That patient will have contaminated the hospital staff that he/she came in contact with and the flu would begin to be transmitted to all of the other patients and staff.

IMHO, while it is a tempting thought to only admit non-symptomatic patients, I do not think it will be a practical way to keep a facility flu free.

SIPCT – at 19:17

Oops - that was me at 03:38.

They are not trying to gear up to care for every patient, because they know it will not be possible. They are preparing to do the most that they possibly can. The hospitals can only sustain a maximum effort for a finite time. They know it will probably not be enough - but they have to try.

At the end of it all, win or lose, they need to be able to say, “We did everything we could.”

c3jmp – at 21:03

crfullmoon – at 03:54

sounds good. i was specifically looking at how a truck might be useful in the event there is no power, no fuel for the trucks, and no diesel for the hospitals’ generators - versus leaving it in a parking lot, or at the station. in terms of pre-hospital care in a pandemic, even with fuel, i doubt EMS will be able in most communities to meet the needs of the public in the manner the public has become accustomed to. that will be a considerable shock to many - one of several. advanced life support is a bit less advanced when you have no fluids, angiocaths, IV lines, drugs, oxygen, ET tubes, etc. and possibly no open facility to transport to. it seemed like it might give the hospitals an option - add panels, and you’ve got an exam room — you won’t be able to go anywhere without fuel, but you won’t be working in a dark ER, either - long after the generators run out of diesel. the thought on isolation is the concern with regard to the few number of real isolation rooms available (with separate ventilation) - put a couple units on shorelines and you’ve got that - a couple more than you had. even if you put older units in place - it beats a tent.

04 November 2006

c3jmp – at 06:53

primary care facilities could use solar panels on the roof, or the top level of a parking deck for solar arrays, and deploy banks of batteries. there would need to be security for the decks to head off vandalism. that would buy a source of power independent of the generators. they’d need temporary wiring run to wherever care is provided, but with LED lighting, it would be possible to retain some exam capability. ventilation would be a tough issue to solve. as with all preps, if they wanted to go that route, they’d need to get the panels, batteries, wiring, and lighting now - before shipping shuts down.

crfullmoon – at 07:20

Problem is, hospital officals don’t want to buy those things -the surrealism of having to act as if pandemic can happen at all, and, have a very high fatality rate, seem to have always been the disconnects.

They seem to be more concerned what will happen to their face/paycheck/bottom line if pandemic doesn’t materialize in the next month or year, than they are about what will happen to themselves and all the people in regions when it does. Or, they are ok with saying, it’s going to be so bad there’s nothing we can do but send hcw to die trying; don’t tell the public to stock up, and learn home nursing, nor discuss community’s mass fatality processing, just go along until something happens…

I imagine some EMTs would like to rig ambulances like you suggest, and I bet one or two individuals or businesses could afford to help them- if they knew; it is so hard to get information to people that would rather trust officials and the government, (and media) who reassure them everything is under control - they “have been planning”- so that the citizen would rather not check on the internet yet to see whether I was telling them the unpleasant truth… I hope the article about “pandemic could keep high fatality rate” gets around quickly, but, adjustment reactions and denial take time.

Solar panels and LEDs would certainly see use in limited regional emergencies now. I’ll try asking the fire chief (on the secret “emergency” all-hazards committee doncha know) what they plan to do with their ambulances, and what the county does with old ones…but, it is hard to get people on the page we’re on. (As a member of the public, I don’t seem to supposed to even know about the book - is that the conversation problem?)

c3jmp – at 07:56

i agree with you. the entities that really should be running in high gear to get ready, for the most part, still can’t seem to get out of neutral. too many horror movies perhaps - people’s natural reaction used to be fight/flight… now it’s become a couch potato response - sit, wait, see what happens - everyone is a spectator. doesn’t say much for the evolution of our species. pardon the cliche, but where we seem to be now, is analysis paralysis. perhaps the roaches will inherit the earth - it certainly won’t be the business analysts.

EnoughAlreadyat 08:04

Bluebonnet – at 10:00

I hope they are as concerned about this pandemic as you seem to think they are. However, my experience with anybody I have spoken with affiliated with TMC &/or UTMB-Galv has been they are not worried about a pandemic. At least not on a large scale with the potential of totally overwhelming the entire system. I have spoken to 2 doctors who are seriously concerned, other than that, the others become increasingly condensending and abrupt. I have 2 adult children working in TMC hospitals who are being told this “flu” just isn’t going to be a problem. They are not taking any special precautions nor have they recieved any special training. This is pretty much the same story I am hearing from the surrounding areas… I am talking about in the directions of Beaumont, Livingston, etc.

Whether this hits this fall or winter, or next year, or the next… we can be sure it will hit. Being prepared is everything… it is what matters. Our local and state governments are not preparing realistically… and they sure as sam hill aren’t preparing the citizens.

And I am madder than a wet hen about it…

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Page last modified on November 04, 2006, at 08:04 AM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / FLU Gina Kolata 1918 Pandemic

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: FLU Gina Kolata 1918 Pandemic

03 November 2006

cottontop – at 20:58

I wouldlike to start off with a quote from the book concerning stockpiling the flu vaccine, (which at the time wasswine flu). Dr. Edwin D. Kilbourne, at the time, a leading virologist and chairman of the microbiology department at Mount Sinai School of Medicine in New York, “when looking back on those days, he asked himself why he and others did not push harder for stockpiling the vaccine, an option that, in retrospect “seems so obvious and attractive.” He needed to remind himseld of two pressing reasons that persuaded him that the best choice was to vaccinate everyone: first, he said if a group had decided to make and store the vaccine, that would have led to “faltreing Congresional support for what was already a troubled program (CDC). Momentum would have been lost. Second, Kilbourne recalled, “those responsible for the vaccine program in the field told us that the problems of distribution, setting up clinics, and vaccination itself, would have preclude prompt action if rapid spread of the virus occured in the customary winter season.” for the first time, there was both knowledge and time, to prepare for mass immunization. So, he said, “if we believe in preventive medicine we have no choice.”“ From FLU-The story of the Great Influenza Pandemic of 1918 and the search for the virus that caused it. Author-Gina Kolata copyright 1999

cottontop – at 21:05

It seems to me, that we have a similar situation here, upon reading reports, today of the CDC stockpiling vaccine, the WHO recommending not to do so. Should countries stockpile vaccines, even though there is a chance the vaccine would render itself usless if a pandemic hit three years from now, due from expiration, or a different strain being the threat? Is Dr. Kilbourne’s statement true, “if we believe in preventive medicine, we have no choice.”?

04 November 2006

anonymous – at 00:58

there was also a desire of testing the newly gained ability to vaccinate the population. Stockpiling vaccine is not so easy and someone said : “we can best stockpile the vaccine inside the people rather than in boxes “.


But, as you wrote this was critisized later. BTW. Kilbourne thinks a H5N1 pandemic is unlikely.

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Page last modified on November 04, 2006, at 12:58 AM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Power Point

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Power Point

30 October 2006

K from MI – at 18:12

I revised the Power Point “Pandemics Happen” by Adrienne LeBailly, MD, Larimer, Colorado Dept of Health & Environment to show to my classroom in a lesson about viruses. I added some United Streaming video clips as well. Is there a way to post it on fluwiki?

anon_22 – at 18:23

send it to Dem and see whether he wants to put it on the ftp.

anon_22 – at 18:23

Email at demfromct@earthlink.net

K from MI – at 18:25

Thanks

CabinLassat 18:33

Now that just might be a fella to elect time and time again.

INFOMASS – at 19:10

The presentation can be found at http://www.larimer.org/health/cd/pandemic_flu.htm. It was presented in March 2006. You need Powerpoint to download and read it. It assumes a maximum case fatality rate of 5%.

INFOMASS – at 19:12

The presentation can be found at http://www.larimer.org/health/cd/pandemic_flu.htm. It was presented in March 2006. You need Powerpoint to download and read it. It assumes a maximum case fatality rate of 5%. It is a large file of about 10.5 MB and takes a while to download even with a fast connection.

K from MI – at 19:31

My revised one is 53 Mb with the video clips. I haven’t figured out a way to send it yet.

anon_22 – at 20:19

You can use this http://www.mailbigfile.com/ follow the instruction to send big files.

For something that size, best to send it to demfromct@singtomeohmuse.com

K from MI – at 22:00

Thanks for the suggestion. Using the link above I only seem to be able to attach one item at a time. The power point has nine video clips. I’ve already sent it in smaller chunks. Hope it works and it’s not too much trouble to put together again.

02 November 2006

bump – at 13:29
Bird Guano – at 17:11

I would be interested in where this eventually lands as well.

DemFromCTat 17:40

I haven’t seen it yet ;-(

it doesn’t seem to have arrived.

03 November 2006

K from MI – at 19:07

I’ll try it again. Maybe it went to your junk mailbox, because it didn’t come back undelivered.

K from MI – at 20:27

I teach a 7th grade life science class. I used the video for my classroom. We started with the “Why Don’t We Do It In Our Sleeves?” video clip on Fluwiki. It’s a great video for this age group, humorous, but gets the point across. The Power Point discusses “What Are Viruses”; Seasonal Versus Pandemic; Biology of Viruses; Severe and Mild Pandemics; Special Emphasis on 1918 Influenza; Why Are We Concerned Today; What Causes the Difference Between a Severe and Mild Pandemic; H5N1 Influenza - Origin and Spread; Vaccines and Treatment; Are We More or Less at Risk Today Compared to 1918; what Might Happen in a Severe Pandemic; Considerations for Preparedness; What Can We Do to Minimize a Pandemic – The material is not original. Most of it came from “Pandemics Happen”. I inserted a few more slides and added video clips that help first timers understand pandemics. I hope I credited all my resources correctly. (I only intended this for use in my classroom.)

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.PowerPoint
Page last modified on November 03, 2006, at 08:27 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Ask Questions of the Moderators Here XVI

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Ask Questions of the Moderators Here XVI

23 October 2006

Bronco Bill – at 12:46

Continued from here


Tom DVM – at 22:44

Scribbler just posted this on the media inquiry thread. Thanks.

Does anyone know how many users are on this discussion forum? Just crossed my mind. Does anyone keep track?

pogge – at 13:44

See the Site Meter, the little multi-coloured bug at the bottom of the left sidebar.

And thanks to the spam alert crew. It does help.

Bronco Bill – at 14:01

I think what Tom DVM is asking is how many names are “registered” here on the Forum…basically, the population size. The Site Meter shows how many users are currently logged in, but not total number of users. I’ve wondered the same thing…

pogge – at 14:11

Even if I did the math, I couldn’t say for sure since people can change their nicknames at will and often do. And IP addresses are really no indication since some ISPs assign them dynamically, i.e. the user’s IP address can be different during each session.

Bronco Bill – at 14:13

people can change their nicknames at will and often do

No way!! People don’t do that. Do they?!?

crfullmoon – at 14:18

;-) Bronco Bill, I visualized that as:

Sock Puppet1: “People can change their nicknames at will and often do “

Sock Puppet2: “No way!! People don’t do that. Do they?!? “

(Ok; sometimes I do put “spam alert” in the Author box, so pogge can toss whatever flavor spam got ‘botted in.)

Bronco Bill – at 14:33

LOL!!! :-D

anon, louise, pooky, mathilda, mousey,…. – at 15:49

“people can change their nicknames at will and often do

No way!! People don’t do that. Do they?!? “

Yep, we do

Bronco Bill – at 22:26

Blitz tomorrow night!

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 23:37

Hey, has anyone told you that the “Dr. Woodson’s book says….” thread has a long side scroll?

24 October 2006

pogge – at 00:10

Not any more.

AnnieBat 03:58

Hi there .. I made a dreadful faux pas and would love your help to fix it .. The Lookout Post for Australasia etc should have Melonesia read Mel a nesia. Is it possible to fix the heading for me please?

pogge – at 08:34

Fixed.

25 October 2006

Commonground – at 10:22

Can you please change the title of Who Level 4. It is not a fact and is very misleading. Causes unnecessary alarm.

Bronco Bill – at 10:29

Maybe add “Rumors of” to the beginning of the title. But, all in all, the opening post should just be copied over to the “New Rumors” thread…and the Who Level 4 thread closed.

Perhaps I can start a “New Rumors VIII” thread, and open it with that post…

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 10:39

How’s Melanie doing? Any new word on her health?

pogge – at 11:09

Can you please change the title of Who Level 4.

Done.

How’s Melanie doing?

I spoke to her on the phone on the weekend when we had the server problem. She’s still not well but recovering. And I got a good laugh out of her at one point when I reminded her that I can’t reboot her the way I can the server.

Bronco Bill – at 11:14

pogge—if you renamed the WHO Level 4 thread, would you mind editing my links to it in the New Rumors VII and VIII threads? Thanks

pogge – at 11:30

Also done.

Bronco Bill – at 11:37

One last little thing: on the Last 50 Changes page, the WHO Level 4 link isn’t updated to Rumour of WHO Level 4. You’re a gem…and I’m glad you got a laugh out of Melanie. Means she is getting better…

pogge – at 12:02

on the Last 50 Changes page, the WHO Level 4 link isn’t updated to Rumour of WHO Level 4

Renaming a thread doesn’t bump it on Last 50 Changes but it does bump it on the Discussion Forum page.

Commonground – at 13:16

Thank You Pogge. I can hear you talking in your sleep….it goes something like this: “done…..done……also done…….done too” :-)

pogge – at 14:44

Sometimes it goes like this: done da done done.

Sorry.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 14:52

You guys are great! Thanks for the humor—and the update on Miss Melanie.

crfullmoon – at 17:33

(Don’t forget to delete the bad Year Round Tomatoes thread)

dun-da-dah-duhn! Daaaaaa!

26 October 2006

Madamspinner – at 06:58

Didn’t know where to post this…the thread I wanted was closed.

On taking the iodine pills to protect the thyroid from radiation----what if a person has had their thyroid removed ? Are they safe from this kind of radiation contamination ?

Chesapeake – at 07:26

Madamspinner-at 6:68, here is a site to learn a little more about Potassium Iodide Tablets and what they do—http://tinyurl.com/ybh7n5

spam in Menstruation Suggestion thread – at 08:32

Mitchell – at 08:19

Dan in MA – at 14:21

I ran across the discussion on Dr. Dave’s essay “Becoming Self-Sufficient for Six Months”, it sounded very interesting. Is the plan to upload it to the preparedness guides section? Would someone please email a copy to danielkmurphy@comcast.net ?

Thanks in advance, Dan

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 14:34

Dan in MA – at 14:21 I jusr emailed you my copy…..hope it comes through ok

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 14:35

It’s very good!

mojo – at 14:43

I’d like a copy too if possible mojorox@bellsouth.net Thanks so much!

Dan in MA – at 14:47

Thanks Rose!

Bronco Bill – at 15:04

I sent it to DemFromCT and he’s looking it over to possibly place on the ftp site. It really is a good read…

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 15:55

mojo – at 14:43 I just emailed you my copy

Bronco Bill – at 21:09

28 October 2006

Bump - Bronco Bill – at 20:29

29 October 2006

DennisCat 11:02

I am sorry- I did it. I made it side scroll on Not Bird flu but close news thread. Please forgive me. I just haven’s got the hang of shrinking gif’s yet.

Love Texas – at 12:23

Hey Mods---I think the Flu Prep thread is too long??? Thanks for all your work.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 12:29

Have you guys decided where to put Dr. Dave’s essay? I’d like to refer some people to it online. Thanks.

Bronco Bill – at 14:21

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 12:29 --- It’s on the FluWiki (Dude’s) singtomeohmuse ftp site. You can get to it from here. Access is at the top of the page.

30 October 2006

bump – at 06:01
crfullmoon – at 13:05

Can someone please close Mass Fatality Plans 3 and link it to a 4th page, when they have time, please? (- I won’t get back to the wiki for 8 hours or so now) (What’s the idea page length for a thread, anyway?)

Bronco Bill – at 13:19

crfullmoon – at 13:05 --- Done. You’ll find it here

There really isn’t any “ideal” page length. I just base it on what I’m used to seeing on long threads, then split them.

31 October 2006

SideScrollat 15:52

Sidescroll in http://www.fluwikie2.com/pmwiki.php?n=Forum.WhatWasLifeLikeIn1918

pogge – at 15:55

Taken care of.

01 November 2006

Dennis in Colorado – at 19:53

Has it been noted that the “editing instructions” box at the bottom of the page says
Long URIs introduce horizontal page scroll instead of
Long URLs introduce horizontal page scroll?

I suppose it could be defended as a clever pun, referring to “long upper respiratory infections” on a avian flu site … but I suspect it is unintentional.

Bronco Bill – at 21:05

Dennis in Colorado – at 19:53 --- Uniform Resource Identifier

Many Cats – at 21:19

BB: In case you haven’t seen it, you need to check out the post by Oremus at 13:27 on Nov.1 in the “New Rumors X” thread. You’re famous! :)

AnnieBat 22:44

We have got side-scroll on the News thread for today (November 1) - just happened. Could you please fix it for us please.

Many Cats – at 23:50

Just out of curiosity: Is that picture of the swan on the Fluwiki logo locked down somehow? I would hate to see somebody turn it upside-down as a joke. Would give lots of wikians major heart attacks. Hope I didn’t give anybody any ideas!

02 November 2006

anon_22 – at 02:43

sidescroll fixed

For future reference, when copying from Promed, they often have a row of asterisks, which will instantly cause massive sidescroll.

Bronco Bill – at 06:10

Many Cats – at 21:19 --- That’s AWESOME!! I knew there would be proof someday. Maybe that’s why, at my ripe old age, I feel so young! ;-) And if I drink enough of it? HA! I could live forever!! Bbbwwwwwwaaaaahahhahahahahahahahaha!!!

BB raises a glass of BBRWFK to the test mice

crfullmoon – at 13:28

News Nov 2 at 13:02 for length and copywrite reasons, should that article be truncated? (it was also a bit of a duplicate)

Tom DVM – at 18:02

Hi Folks.

I have read the explanation that was given at the top of the Chinese thread from last night; in fact I have read it several times.

I frankly do not understand the line that has been drawn and so I assume others may not understand as well.

I would respectfully suggest that the thread be re-opened for comments so that we can sort it out the confusion.

Thanks

DemFromCTat 18:38

Governments are inept, incompetent, slow to react, etc. and pretty much all on a routine basis. However, I am not interested in opening up discussion on accusations of any government deliberately fostering or “plotting” (that was the word used) deception to hide their role in the onset of a pandemic without hard evidence. It was the basis of the thread. That is way over the top.

Call it a moderator decision. You can discuss it here.

Tom DVM – at 18:56

Hi DemFromCt. I have missed our discussions these past few months./;0)

In my opinion, China has been deliberately misleading…it seems to me that is the definition of deception…Okay, I won’t presume to know why they are doing it…but I would surmise that it is to save face, save their (government’s) neck, save the Olympics in 2008 which at this stage I would think is remote at best…and maybe it is also to make money.

I don’t think they are “plotting”…I think they are “acting”.

The point of ethics is that you treat all equally and I think that has been the case.

I am not prepared to give Canada, the United States or China the benefit of the doubt if they are plotting to deliberately mislead and injury my friends and family. In fact, any argument about China could also be made in respect to the World Health Organization…they may be acting with immunity and impunity.

Ethically, I am not willing to appease…too much of that has been going on already for the last nine years…

…we are here to lead not to follow.

As always I appreciate the fact that you and Pogge and Melanie and the Reveres have given me a voice. I will never take that voice for granted.

The bottom line is that I don’t see very much wrong with what Monotreme posted last night.

DemFromCTat 19:09

I would prefer not to use the terms “conspiracy” and “plotting” in a post discussing anyone or anything without proof, let alone governments. There’s plenty to criticize. See this news story, for example. Discussing the topic is not off limits, but I would advise some degree of reasonableness about language.

I would expect that if similar posts appear using similar language, we’d post a disclaimer at the top.

While we’re on the topic, I have no dog in the DG battle, but I’d prefer not to describe candidates so harshly. But that’s just me, and this is not a new observation.

Tom DVM – at 19:18

DemFromCt. I hope I have been ethical and fair in my comments but I would have to review those on Dr. Chang to see how close to the line I have been.

I will be happy to give the Chinese Government and the World Health Organization a ‘pat on the back’ when I see something worthy of it…and in the last two years, I have seen nothing of the sort. There is no difference, in my opinion, between them…its all about politics…not science…it’s all about self-interest…not my families interest. Thanks for your comments.

DemFromCTat 19:28

Tom DVM, as always, the windshield’s bigger than the rear view mirror. Let’s look forward and not backward. People’s opinions are their own, particularly in the Forum.

Another btw on a separate topic. While I read the Forum daily and tune/putter/repair the wiki, I am keeping a low profile until after the US election. I want this site to be and remain non-partisan.

Tom DVM – at 19:55

What’s the problem, don’t you trust yourself. /;0)

Looking forward then to future discussions. It just hasn’t been the same.

by the way, I hope Melanie is feeling better.

DemFromCTat 20:13

My name itself is, well, not non-partisan. ;-)

Melanie’s working on it.

Bronco Bill – at 20:44

DemFromCT – at 20:13 --- Until the election’s over, you could always change your handle to simply “VoterFromCT” ;-)

Monotreme – at 20:47

The thread in question is rapidly sinking so, just so everyone knows what’s being discussed, here is a link The Chinese Government’s Plot to Hide Their Role in Causing a Pandemic

Here is the moderator preamble to the thread:

We hold the freedom of speech and access to information very dear. While criticism of any government for pandemic flu related policies are entirely legitimate, appropriate, and useful topics of discussion, we do need to be careful about allegations regarding intent. It‚s one thing to point out wrong or harmful policies, it‚s quite another to suggest any of those policies were put out with the intention of procuring the current negative consequences.

We entirely agree that ineffective vaccines are contributing to our current problems, We also absolutely prefer that international researchers working on the frontline of pandemic research should have access to epidemiologic and virology data and/or samples wherever in the world outbreaks might be occurring. However, different governments have different standards as to what constitutes libelous or seditious language. Therefore, we would prefer that contributors express their opinions in ways that will allow as many people in different countries to access the information as possible.

-The Moderators

Monotreme – at 20:58

Like Tom DVM, I had trouble understanding exactly what was objectionable in the thread. I can certainly understand people not agreeing with what I said or how I said it, but I don’t understand why it was summarily deleted. The discussion amongst the psrticipants was polite and did not violate any of rules of Flu Wiki. I do appreciate the moderator’s decision to restore the thread.

I believe there is ample “hard evidence” to support my thesis and had started to present it. However, it is difficult to make one’s case when the relevant thread is closed. I had planned to provide a great deal more data to support my opinion, but apparently this will not be permitted at Flu Wiki.

I agree with most of the moderators preamble, but there are several lines that trouble me. In particular this sentence:

However, different governments have different standards as to what constitutes libelous or seditious language. Therefore, we would prefer that contributors express their opinions in ways that will allow as many people in different countries to access the information as possible.

Do the moderators mean to say that posts on Flu Wiki will be judged on the basis of Chinese libel and sedition laws? I have trouble believing this is the intent, but that seems to be implied. I would appreciate further clarification on this issue.

Thanks

Fiddlerdave – at 21:05

Is there there a way to search the discussion thread (or whole board) and have the results appear most recent first?

Monotreme – at 21:07

I’d like to know if making the points listed in this document are allowed on Flu Wiki.

Freedom of the Press and the 2002-2003 SARS Outbreak

This is one of the pieces of evidence I had intended to post on the “China Conspiracy” thread. I won’t comment on it because I don’t know if it is allowed.

Anon_451 – at 21:10

Monotreme – at 20:58 Tom DVM – at 19:55

I knell to each of you for your wisdom, knowledge and contribution to this site. You are both among the very few great ones here. However; I have read the entire thread in question and I have to agree with the Mods on this one. Monotreme you have spoken nothing but the truth, indeed you had it linked and properly supported as any good scientist would. Tome you memory is like a trap and you are able to bring up and link things long forgotten. Your thesis an data are correct.

However this site if viewed by the common people in China that can read English. If you were to continue, you would get the site banned in China, and we are all about saving as many lives as possible.

You both have been able to get your points across about what is happening in Asia. You have been able to do so with out a direct statement in a thread about any country. Keep up the good work but remember that 1.5 Billion Chinese need to be as informed as the rest of the world.

Anon_451 – at 21:10

Monotreme – at 20:58 Tom DVM – at 19:55

I knell to each of you for your wisdom, knowledge and contribution to this site. You are both among the very few great ones here. However; I have read the entire thread in question and I have to agree with the Mods on this one. Monotreme you have spoken nothing but the truth, indeed you had it linked and properly supported as any good scientist would. Tom you memory is like a trap and you are able to bring up and link things long forgotten. Your thesis an data are correct.

However this site if viewed by the common people in China that can read English. If you were to continue, you would get the site banned in China, and we are all about saving as many lives as possible.

You both have been able to get your points across about what is happening in Asia. You have been able to do so with out a direct statement in a thread about any country. Keep up the good work but remember that 1.5 Billion Chinese need to be as informed as the rest of the world.

janetn – at 21:18

Ok now I get it thanks Anon 451

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 21:23

DemFromCT – at 20:13 My name itself is, well, not non-partisan. ;-)

You could just use Anonymous and blend right in for a few days! Seriously I, a Reagan Republican, appreciate your ethics—you go out of your way to always be fair.

Monotreme – at 21:39

Anon_451 – at 21:10

I appreciate your kind words but I can’t agree with you on this one. If you check, you will note that almost no-one in China reads Flu Wiki. I don’t know if it’s banned or not, but it wouldn’t make much difference it was. Personal prepping can’t happen there, and community prepping won’t either. The only thing of value we can provide them is the truth about what their government is doing. If the site is banned there, information may still reach them through underground sources. If we are afraid to tell the truth about what is going on in China, then the people there have no hope.

There are many types of censorship, but the worst type is self-censorship. If we worry about whether what we say gives offense to oppressive regimes, then we have agreed to be their slaves. I, for one, am not willing to do this. It is a matter of principle.

In the thread, I gave specific recommedations on what I think needs to be done to save lives. I may be wrong about the possibility of success, but I believe what I wrote.

I apologize for writing in generalities, but I don’t know how to write about this more specifically without violating the new guidelines.

Fiddlerdave – at 21:50

Let’s not discuss particular government’s hiding of information for their own benefit or purposes, let’s discuss how to find a government that IS NOT!

Many Cats – at 22:00

As far as getting as many people as possible in as many countries as possible to read this thread, I would be curious to know—since we have done a fair bit of “China-bashing” on this forum prior to this latest thread—is there some way to know if we ARE being read in China or has the wiki already been filtered out as “Capitalist filth unacceptable for the eyes of the virtuous people of China”? That last part in quotes was not meant to sound offensive, but that is the kind of speech that I have seen when reading some translated Chinese news blogs. There was quite a bit of discussion on those sites regarding the little policeman and policewoman icons the government was going to post on chat sites to remind people that the “wholesomeness” of the internet was everyone’s job to protect (as in watch what you say). Mods can erase this post if it, too, is deemed too inflammatory, but this entire issue should give everyone a greater appreciation for the daring of those young bloggers actually IN China who post the news as they see fit, “wholesome” or not.

Anon_451 – at 22:18

Monotreme – at 21:39 I Hear you dear friend. It is a very hard line the Mods must walk. We have learned a long time ago that Freedom is not Free. We have paid for it dearly in blood. (Some of it mine) I do not disagree with what you have said, and in the US I would defend you with my life to say even that which I may disagree with. I am not an overly wise man, perhaps it would be best if we were banned in China as it would make the site more attractive to some, but we must remember that at least one of our number must travel to the country in question from time to time and we may be placing her at risk for her personal safety. I do not know that as a fact mearly what I have seen in the past. I do not trust them with anything. I understand that that is what you are trying to say and that they have done far more harm then anyone can imagine. Your points are well taken and I wish I knew of a way to “Get them out” It is something which needs to be said as they are placing the entire world at risk due to stupid mistakes and then trying to cover them up.

Many Cats – at 22:25

Anon_451: As far as any of “ours” on the wiki travelling to China, nothing would happen. If something did happen, it would only draw attention to that individual’s afflilation with the wiki. There is an old marketing saying that bad publicity is better than no publicity. They would insure that she (in this particular case) came and went with as little fanfare as possible.

Okieman – at 22:29

Monotreme – at 21:39

Self-censorship is not the worst type, it is the best type. When one censors themselves they are showing self restraint, which is strength. It is when one bows to censorship out of fear that one has allowed themselves to be a slave. You have nothing to fear from the moderators. They are attempting to apply a form of self restraint to the flu wiki community. This is a strength when applied judiciously. Good government is not one that allows unrestrained freedom, but rather one that allows freedom to pursue as much and many actions as possible, but without causing harm to others.

I know, and appreciate, that your purpose for starting the China thread is to ultimately protect and not harm. I’m sure the moderators know this too. But going on the attack will not sway the powers that be in China. Nor will inflammatory rhetoric motivate other powers to action.

The evening before last I happened to check the sitemeter map. Low and behold there was a reader from Beijing. Just one. But I had to wonder what that one was up to and why they were reading the fluwiki forum. Were they a decision maker? I will never know. Will reading the fluwiki effect them in some way? Don’t know that either. What I do know is going on the attack will turn them off immediately. It would me.

In full disclosure, I wrote this set of questions in the November 1 News thread:

Is it biological warfare if you work to protect your own population, while allowing other nations to flounder in ignorance, which ultimately kills millions of their citizens? Passive warfare? Is that an oxymoron?

China is playing a dangerous game.

I’m hacked at China too. But I chose to go at it in an oblique manner utilizing questions. But, maybe I’m a bit over the top too. If we are going to sway the powers that be to bring pressure upon China and others that with hold data we have to approach the matter in a circumspect and comprehensive manner with the all the supporting data to back up our supposition. Impassioned rhetoric will not change things, firm data and information will. I know you were beginning to gather that data and I appreciate the effort. May another thread be started to begin the compilation of all things H5N1 - China related? I would like to see such a thread started, but minus the heat. Cold hard data and news sources.

Monotreme, I appreciate the work you do on this site and would like to see you continue. Thank you for all the hard work you have put into this.

Anon_451 – at 22:34

Monotreme. Check out the most recent post on Nepal by Snifflest. It really does support what you are saying and beleive me I have seen what you have seen. If anyone has not seen it, they have chosen not to see it.

Monotreme – at 23:28

Anon_451 – at 22:18

I am constrained in my ability to respond, for various reasons. Suffice it to say that I am aware of all the things you have reported, and I still chose to say what I said in that thread. When considering why people say and do the things that they say and do, it is important to consider all the possibilties.

I know you have a good heart and want the best.

Monotreme – at 23:47

Okieman – at 22:29

I make a distinction between self-ccontrol and self-censorship. I assure you, my rhetoric was not only heart-felt, but deliberate. My old buddy Tom DVM will recall the Worm of Weybridge thread. If ever a thread was over-the-top, that one was. I may be wrong, but I think that thread and others like it had a positive effect, but not by directly convincing the person involved to change their behaviour. Instead, I think pressure was brought to bear on that individual by others. My intention in the thread under discussion here was the same. Other strategies, notably appeasement, have been attempted for years. They have failed misereably, as a check of the news threads will show.

The evening before last I happened to check the sitemeter map. Low and behold there was a reader from Beijing.

Yes, I know about that visitor. I also know how to “invite” them to Flu Wiki ;-)

I would not feel comfortable making the comment that you made on November 1 under the current circumstances. I believe the moderators have the absolute right to set any conditions or rules they wish. It is their site. However, it is important to be clear as to what those rules are so that potential participants can decide if they can live with them. I am no longer sure what the rules are. In particular, I am concerned by this statement:

However, different governments have different standards as to what constitutes libelous or seditious language. Therefore, we would prefer that contributors express their opinions in ways that will allow as many people in different countries to access the information as possible.

I am trying to understand what this means. It seems to imply posts on Flu Wiki must comply with Chinese censorship and libel laws. I am hoping that the Mods mean something else, but only they can clarify what they mean.

Scaredy Cat – at 23:52

Okieman - at 22:29 -

>--Self-censorship is not the worst type, it is the best type. When one censors themselves they are showing self restraint, which is strength.

In some instances self-censorship might be a wise course of action. But this case is not really about self-censorship—as in an individual choosing not to give voice to their own thoughts—but censorship imposed—initially without discussion, just dumping a thread—on one by another who is asking that we all watch what we say lest our conversation not make it through the filters of a harsh and repressive regime.

If we at Flu Wiki have to limit what we say to that which would be acceptable to the Chinese government, then not only are we compromising our own search for the truth, but we stand in tacit approval of a system many find to be morally repugnant.

KimTat 23:56

“It seems to imply posts on Flu Wiki must comply with Chinese censorship and libel laws. I am hoping that the Mods mean something else, but only they can clarify what they mean.”

That would suck big time! Because then very little could be said. I feel so sorry for the individuals of this world who are not allowed the basic freedom of saying whats on their minds, of confronting laws, rules and causing change for the better. Sometime calling it as it is instead of pussy footing around is the only way to create positive change.

03 November 2006

KimTat 00:02

Ahh, I meant China, not the mods!

Dude – at 00:04

Was this thread really closed because of it’s content? If so, shame on whoever decided that. I say no to censorship. We should be free to act in this community as responsible people who build up their reputations over time by what they say and how they say it. The only shade of censorship I think is worthy of us is when we collectively, pick on the facts, arguments, tone or data and find them lacking. We then “censor” the original poster for not keeping to our standards. To place any Flu topic off limits, no matter how offensive to any world government or organization is to be less than what my definition of free speech is about. You are flat wrong in your wish to appease China for the sake of dialogue or data. We are NOT the government. We ARE the people…don’t forget that. I personally will continue to say on these forums whatever I wish regarding pandemic flu and the role I see China taking in this regard. I will NOT be silenced by anyone in this regard. If you wish to ban me for this, then do so.

Monotreme – at 00:05

The following is from a Chinese News source, China View:

Chinese harmony and American democracy in 21st century

From the perspective of harmony, Fung examined three major movements of human civilization: religion, democracy and harmony. “As the world is in great disharmony with religion conflicts, international inequity, and the disparity between North and South,” Fung stressed, “we must look beyond religion and democracy to harmony.”

Then after comparing with religion and democracy, Fung asked, “Will harmony bring a more moderate future world?” His answer is yes.

Finally Fung stressed that democracy — American style — is challenged by Chinese harmony as the leading global philosophy in the 21st century, because harmony is a basic human longing.

Fung concluded his paper “Teaching harmony in U.S. is paramount.”

Tom DVM – at 00:21

Self-censorship is a good thing…Self-censorship is a good thing…Self-censorship is a good thing…Self-censorship is a good thing…Self-censorship is a good thing…Self-censorship is a good thing…Self-censorship is a good thing…Self-censorship is a good thing…

…Self-censorship is a very good theory that is difficult to adhere to.

If there was one person on flu wiki you can bet that person is a member of the Communist Government of China.

The Chinese Government knows all about harmony…1988.

crfullmoon – at 04:57

Monotreme – and Tom DVM, (and KimT; there sure would be little that could be said) I agree, that would be an unusefully low common denominator for the purpose of The Flu Wiki. I’m going to try and go back to sleep for now.

Bronco Bill – at 06:12

If we at Flu Wiki have to limit what we say to that which would be acceptable to the Chinese government, then not only are we compromising our own search for the truth, but we stand in tacit approval of a system many find to be morally repugnant.

I’m not trying to take sides here, so please don’t flame me. Yet. My two cents are that we’re trying to reach the citizens of China, and in order to do that, we have to somehow obey China’s “rules”. One of their rules is that no one is to make any disparaging remarks about the government of China, or finger-point at that government that it might be doing something wrong. We’re not here to point out to the Chinese people whether or not their government is corrupt…we’re here to get them some information about the possibility of a pandemic and how to prepare for it.

In that sense, we must word our comments to be able to make it thru the ‘net filters that their government has put in place and not say or write anything that would raise a red flag to the possibility of blocking FluWiki from the people. And any disparaging remarks against the Chinese government will cause a filter to be put in place.

anonymous for this post – at 06:42

Monotreme – at 23:28

I am constrained in my ability to respond, for various reasons.

Don’t you think other people might also be constrained?

You stay anonymous and go on the attack, while others have gone public with their real names, and gone miles to do good for others. I don’t know anything beyond what is written on this forum, but we must protect those who either travel to or have family in China.

I think it is hypocritical to attack others for prudence when you are not the one who has to pay, if TSHTF. And I don’t mean when a pandemic happens.

If you want to say things the way you want, use your real name. Take the same risks, then maybe you will have earned right to dictate what risks others take.

Write what you want, as BB said, just word your comments carefully, is all that the mods are asking.

Homesteader – at 08:49

“Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has.” Margaret Mead

IMHO no matter how this is decided some innocent people will be negatively affected, either by not getting the information or by having the Chinese government react badly. There is no clear cut “right action” here, similar to the position TPTB are. There is a spectrum of actions that could be taken from “off the res” to conspiring to withhold vital information.

Bowing to pressure to not upset the Chinese government, or any government, is a slippery slope. However to radical an approach does needless damage. I don’t feel Monotreme’s post went to far, it needed to be said. Peoples varied reaction to it is probably a sign that the right tone was struck. She was only stating what was there to be said.

Homesteader – at 09:15

When you think of the long and gloomy history of man, you will find more hideous crimes have been committed in the name of obedience than have ever been committed in the name of rebellion. C. P. Snow (1905 - 1980)

I think this is a debate that has been going on since we invented fire. The answer isn’t clear, but the result we want is crystal.

fredness – at 09:19

Sorry to trouble you but could someone put line breaks or bullets between my links to improve readability?Case for Early School Closure thread Nov 3. Thanks.

Monotreme – at 09:21

Bronco Bill – at 06:12

My two cents are that we’re trying to reach the citizens of China, and in order to do that, we have to somehow obey China’s “rules”.

I understand your point of view, but I don’t agree. I suspect the only people from mainland China who visit here are the spammers. And they will continue to deliver their “input” whether Flu Wiki is banned or not. As I said before, it is far more important to figure out what is going on in China than to provide them with recipes for beans and rice. If we are able to understand what happened in China, we may reach people there with common purpose.

I will not obey China’s “rules”, period. If this is a precondition for participation at Flu Wiki, count me out. I am still waiting for clarification by the Moderators on this point.

Monotreme – at 09:24

anonymous for this post – at 06:42

We have had this discussion many times, privately. I do not believe you.

Scaredy Cat – at 09:24

anonymous for this post – at 06:42

Monotreme – at 23:28

I am constrained in my ability to respond, for various reasons.

Don’t you think other people might also be constrained?

You stay anonymous and go on the attack, while others have gone public with their real names, and gone miles to do good for others. I don’t know anything beyond what is written on this forum, but we must protect those who either travel to or have family in China.

comment: Anonymity here is the norm, so no one should be criticized for what they say because they don’t use their real name. Ironically, “anonymous for this post” uses anonymity him or herself while “going on the attack” and even adds one extra layer to his or her usual anonymity.

Also, many here, including Monotreme, have “gone miles to do good for others,” anonymity notwithstanding.

Protecting those who travel to or have family in China is a noble goal—not that censorship here would accomplish that anyway—but even if it could, I think protecting the entire human race from pandemic in general, and China’s contributions to it specifically, should be given greater weight.

I think it is hypocritical to attack others for prudence when you are not the one who has to pay, if TSHTF. And I don’t mean when a pandemic happens.

comment: I think the above remark is flawed for two reasons. First, the mods are not being “attacked” for “prudence.” “Prudence” may be their rationale for imposing censorship, but the criticisms are for the censorship itself, censorship designed to comply with Chinese government desires.

If you want to say things the way you want, use your real name. Take the same risks, then maybe you will have earned right to dictate what risks others take.

comment: And you?

Write what you want…just word your comments carefully, is all that the mods are asking.

comment: So…..we are all Chinese?

Tom DVM – at 09:24

I must be missing something here. Every Chinese dissident that leaves China has said things far worse then the miniscule comments that have been made on the thread in question…

…brave dissidents within China have made clearly far worse statements then we have made here.

Not only that but the Chinese Government has repeatedly put in print that ‘democratic Governments’ are corrupt and have been doing so for longer than my lifetime.

What’s good for the goose…is good for the gander!!

We have seen appeasement in the past…it was not pretty or productive.

China is my misguided friend…and I tell my friends the truth or as close as I can get to it.

My problem is not with the country or its citizens…but with a ‘blank’ Government that I have been in disharmony with on food issues since Sept 1998.

Dr. Tom Gastle. DVM BSc Agr(Crop Science)

uk bird – at 09:34

Would the benefits of discussing, what China is or isn’t up to, outweight the damage that arguing about NOT discussing China is generating? That applies to both sides of the argument.

pogge – at 09:45

Goodness. I was away on business for a couple of days and came back to find controversies brewing in every online community I’m involved in. Can’t we all just get along? (Hides under desk)

I haven’t read the thread in question yet and I’m not going to until I can sit and read it carefully but I already have a comment based on what I’ve read here. I see the term censorship being tossed around and I think it’s being use a little too loosely (though self-censorship can apply).

The term censorship is generally used when the power of the state is brought to bear to shut down dissent or suppress information or opinion. The people who run this site don’t have that kind of power nor do we want it. We can’t censor anyone in the sense that we can’t prevent anyone from expressing an opinion in any other venue. We can only make decisions about what’s published on this site.

I say this because it’s suggested here that the use of language is part of the problem and that a more careful use of language might help solve it. We make editorial decisions all the time and we try to make them in the context of the original mandate for the site. That doesn’t mean we can’t make bad decisions and that there isn’t room to question and review them. But we’re not deciding what is or isn’t an acceptable opinion in any context. We’re trying to decide on the best course of action in a specific context: what we want this site to accomplish.

I’ll come back later and look at the thread that started this but I have a few more fires to put out.

Scaredy Cat – at 09:50

From Dictionary.com -

censor –verb (used with object) 6. to examine and act upon as a censor. 7. to delete (a word or passage of text) in one’s capacity as a censor.

Monotreme – at 09:57

pogge, welcome back ;-)

The language in the thread in question is no worse than in many other threads, imo.

You state: The term censorship is generally used when the power of the state is brought to bear to shut down dissent or suppress information or opinion.

I agree. I think this is happening in China. Do you agree?

My specific concern is the language in the preamble, signed, the Mods:

However, different governments have different standards as to what constitutes libelous or seditious language. Therefore, we would prefer that contributors express their opinions in ways that will allow as many people in different countries to access the information as possible.

I have repreatedly asked the following question, but have yet to receive and answer from the Mods:

I am trying to understand what this means. It seems to imply posts on Flu Wiki must comply with Chinese censorship and libel laws. I am hoping that the Mods mean something else, but only they can clarify what they mean.

China does impose severe censorship on it’s citizens, imo. If we have to abide by the same “rules” on Flu Wiki, then, for all practical purposes, China has successfully extended it’s censorship laws to Flu Wiki - which may be their intent.

Monotreme – at 10:06

Scaredy Cat, thanks.

Tom DVM – at 09:24

You are right on target.

Every dissident I have ever met wants the West to shine as bright a light as possible on what’s going on in their repressive countries. Dissidents, never, ever request that people in West hold back on criticism of their governments. Quite the reverse, in fact. It is not hard to distinguish between a true dissident and someone who seeks to advance the party line, no matter how subtle their approach.

I realize this is not a political site and I agree that our focus should be on pandemic flu. I think the thread in question was directly on target. This link: Freedom of the Press and the 2002-2003 SARS Outbreak bears directly on why it is important for there to be someone who tries to report the truth about what has been happening in China.

Homesteader – at 10:16

Great site, great thread, great people. Or should that be in reverse order?

Medical Maven – at 10:16

If Western Civilization doesn’t believe in itself enough to voice opinions that may offend dictatorships halfway across the world, then We in the West will be shortly CONSUMED.

We have to regain our mental toughness. There are HUNGRY, unprincipled actors out there on the world stage. And they see weakness, vacillation, and foremost an erosion of the West’s support for its own Democratic heritage.

Any backtracking on calling “a spade a spade” in regards to China’s complicity in this developing panflu crisis only throws fuel to the fire.

anon_22 – at 10:24

I’m going to make a statement on this. I may or may not respond to individual questions, depending on whether those questions are already covered in this statement. Please read this carefully before making comments.

I believe it is important to uphold free speech and open access to information. That’s the reason for the existence of Fluwiki, and the reason why I choose to make myself clear here.

I believe based on scientific data that the use of bad vaccines may be contributing to the emergence of a new strain.

I believe that it is in the interest of all humanity that international researchers on the frontline of research on pandemic flu should have timely access to epidemiological and virology data and/or samples, wherever in the world outbreaks are occurring.

I agree with Webster el al that systematic virological surveillance in geographical areas where new strains tend to emerge is an important step towards improving our understanding of the evolution of H5N1 and possible emergence of the next pandemic virus.

I believe that governments everywhere must share part of the responsibility to make the world safer for the next generation; it is an obligation that comes automatically with membership of a decent international society.

I believe that writing on public forums is not free lunch, that it carries a responsibility to remember the power of words to do harm as well as good. As a physician, the no 1 rule of ethics is ‘Do no harm’. I believe this rule should also apply to public speech.

I believe that citizens can do a lot of good by their actions, and those actions do not necessarily have to be antagonistic to TPTB. Witness what I have been doing with assisting authorities and citizens to come together to build community resilience in the US, which btw is not even my country and therefore carries no direct benefit to myself.

It is each person’s individual choice how they approach this. I only ask that you make this choice with care and in good conscience.

I believe that it is misguided to assume the rest of the world believe and act the way you do, that just because something is right by your standards, those standards will be accepted or honoured by others.

As the only publicly identified frequent poster and mod of Chinese ethnicity, I refuse to submit to the assumption that Americans have a better understanding of what constitutes ‘harm’ or risk to others (or their family and friends) not living in their world.

I believe it is possible to say everything that Monotreme is trying to say without accusations implying deliberate intent to harm, which is what the word ‘conspiracy’ means in the Chinese language. If this was a mistake of understanding, then I will respectfully ask you to use a different way of expressing your ideas.

If it was your intention to say that the Chinese government took actions with the intention of harming the rest of the world, I will exercise my prerogative as a moderator to ask you to withdraw this accusation unless you have evidence.

I also want to add that I have emailed a few people on this forum with explanations on this matter. While some of them have had the decency and courtesy to at least engage in correspondence with me in an attempt to resolve our differences, I am very disappointed not to have received any reply whatsoever from Monotreme. And this is not the first time that he has not responded to my attempt at communication.

I’m ready to step down as moderator if this issue is not resolved. I only request that you judge my integrity by examining my track record, before you come to any conclusions.

Tom DVM – at 10:25

Hi Monotreme Thanks.

Interesting article but incorrect on one assertion.

The SARS outbreak did not start in Dec 2002 but had been going on most certainly for several months…if not years at that point.

Medical Maven – at 10:46

anon_22-If Russia was the country in question instead of China would that make a difference to you?

I think it would.

You need to fully throw off your cloak of ethnicity and become full a citizen of the West, one that is imbued with democratic principles. In the United States most of us have done that.

I don’t care what race of people populates the future United States only that they have the benefit of our current form of government and the freedoms that are protected therein. I want to keep that dream alive. That will make me a happy man when I die.

As far harmony is concerned, national and international, enduring ideas and systems that promote freedom and creativity trump skin color or ethnicity each and every time.

I am sorry if I have offended you with any of the above. I have greatly appreciated your input, logic, and good-natured presence. But I believe you are caught between two worlds. Sometime in the future you will have to choose.

anon_22 – at 10:49

MM,

anon_22-If Russia was the country in question instead of China would that make a difference to you?

If one of the mods have family in Russia, yes.

I’m ready to trade a small fraction of my freedom to maintain larger freedom for others, even if I don’t know them.

anon_22 – at 10:51

MM, you need to read my statement carefully again.

This forum is not American, nor is it for Americans only. Please keep that in mind.

Bronco Bill – at 10:52

Monotreme – at 09:57 --- I’m not disagreeing with what you’ve said. In fact, I do agree with what you stated on your original thread. My only concern is that if the Chinese gov’t decides that FW is “seditious” or “inflammatory” in any way, they will block Internet access from their citizens. They don’t care if their people can or cannot read various websites.

If we want to reach the people, then we need to choose our words carefully to keep the censors from blocking this site inside of China’s borders. The whole premise of FluWiki is to enlighten ordinary people about the possibility of a flu pandemic and make them aware of the ramifications of not preparing for it.

Tom DVM --- The dissidents inside of China… We usually only hear from them once or twice, and then their voices go silent. The dissidents who have left before making their comments? We don’t know for sure if the people still there have heard their words or not…every medium in China, whether it’s the Internet, television, or hard-copy news, is censored by the gov’t in such a way as to make sure the people are happy in their place. The majority of those people know only what is told to them by their “leaders”…

Monotreme --- If this is a precondition for participation at Flu Wiki, count me out. I hope that you will rethink that statement. You’ve given way too much to this site to simply walk away…and the same goes for you, Anon_22.

anon_22 – at 10:57

MM,

But I believe you are caught between two worlds. Sometime in the future you will have to choose.

Actually, you are right, but not in the way that you meant.

I will not be moderator of a site that allows unsubstantiated accusations against governments that will have repercussions for individuals, particularly after the matter has been explicitly pointed out to me.

Whether those individuals are Russians or Chinese, its the same.

pogge – at 11:06

I am sorry if I have offended you with any of the above.

You’ve offended me. Think about that.

pogge – at 11:12

and that is the real point of flu wiki…direct political pressure

You could have fooled me and I’ve been around since the beginning. I’m not saying that exerting political pressure is a bad thing, just that I didn’t think it was our sole reason for being.

Medical Maven – at 11:19

anon_22 at 10:57-Are you saying that members of your family still in China are at some risk if you are part of any site that engages in “China bashing” whether substantiated or not?

If that is the case, I am sorry that I have pressed this matter.

If that is the case, we here at fluwiki will have to try to work around the problem. You are a valuable contributor. I think of you more in that respect than as a moderator.

Tom DVM – at 11:21

pogge. You are right. The real point of flu wiki is to assist in community prepping etc. I knew it was wrong when I wrote…

…I guess I will have to plead insanity…that, and a ‘brain cramp’. /:0)

Thanks.

Tom DVM – at 11:22

…temporary insanity!!

anon_22 – at 11:28

MM,

I’m saying that I will not be moderator of a site that allows unsubstantiated accusations of intent to do harm. Criticism, analysis, opinions, news, even rumours, are welcome. When it comes to allegations or accusations, just be circumspect. Is all I’m saying.

anon_22 – at 11:38

I need to make a small but important correction to my 10:24 post. I was mistaken to say Monotreme did not reply to my email. There was an initial short reply which did not respond to the contents of my email. I apologize sincerely for Monotreme for that oversight.

anon_22 – at 11:38

to Monotreme.

Duh!

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 11:45

Ahhheemmm….

I’m going to step in & mention something to the great minds at work here. This week is the national championship for the PBR (Professional Bull Riders). I love to watch bull riding. I’ve never come close to actually being near a bull….but that doesn’t mean that I can’t appreciate the power and the danger they represent and I wouldn’t stand outside the pen yelling at the big beasts just because they might not be able to get to me to retaliate. I’d be afraid that I’d make ‘em mad and they’d take it out on the next brave bull rider that strapped himself on his back for the longest 8 second ride in his life.

My point is, to use a bull rider’s vocabulary, we’re here to ‘git our bulls rode’. Yes, for those who don’t read ‘cowboy’, that’s bad English, but by golly it gets the point across.

We’ve each got our bull (our passion, our politics or whatever) that we feel we need to challenge and conquer proudly and we’re not going to be able to do it in 8 seconds. We’ve got a LOT of bulls to ride in this flu competition before we can get to the finals & running off other bull riders isn’t gonna help because the final score is based on what WE do with ourselves and our talent for other people around the world, separate and apart from our race or our politics.

In all the time I’ve watched bull riders, they NEVER have done anything to endanger another bull rider’s life, but instead they’ve done everything they could to support and encourage other riders. Even though they’re competing against each other, their attitude and their approach is to be inclusive to the benefit of all, not to be exclusive because they have the right to make that choice.

Boys and Girls, ‘git your bulls rode’ safely enough that we ALL benefit, even if it means “shuttin’ yer mouth” a little bit and considering the other guy.

I’ll return you to your ‘discussion’ now.

Homesteader – at 11:47

Please consider that what is developing on this thread is a mircocosm of what will happen innumerable times during and after a Pandemic. All conflict is caused by scarce resources be they tangible or intangible. The group cannot afford personal issues (sacred cows) to cause loss by seperation. Human beings by nature create meaning in order to gain understanding, the error is in cloaking the result in the veil of “truth” (small t). We are all guilty of it.

Discussion and debate is healthy. Discord leading to divorce is a form of death. To quote Ben Franklin “We can hang together or we can hang seperately.”

observer – at 12:03

Sometimes I think everyone on the wiki should read “Lord of the Flies” and ask themselves which character are they and what is wrong with the picture.

We need everyone to continue to contribute.

We all censor everyday in our personal lives…at least I hope you don’t say or do everything that crosses your mind. We self censor for very good reasons.

This whole China thing is curious - who needs to be told what China is doing? I doubt anyone on the wiki. Will China change because of what is said here? I doubt it. Is any of this a surprise? no. Do TPTB not know what is going on? I doubt that too. So what is the purpose - it feels good to rail against China? It might feel good to rail at you boss, your spouse, children, neighbor. You may even be right but it may not be wise and it solves nothing.

All of you, this discussion has gone on too long and is going too far. People are going to quit posting and serving the higher purpose of helping each other prepare for the (if/not when) pandemic. You all have much to contribute.

Tom DVM – at 12:14

Observer. Thanks for your astute observations. I hope you can contribute more in the future…we can most surely use the help.

I appreciate every commment that has been made here…pro and con…

…and that is the bottom line for me…I like democracy….no, I love democracy.

I am Canadian (United Empire Loyalist) , not American and I may be plagerizing New Hampshires state saying but…

…I would rather live free or die trying…

I don’t like censorship when the other side is, from this distance, psychopathic in that they feel no remorse or empathy for anything or anyone…but that is just my opinion and many have died so that I can speak the truth as I know it…

…in making this statement, they are welcome to return the favour…afterall, that is democracy.

Okieman – at 12:18

I respectfully submit the following quote from John Stuart Mill’s treatise “On Liberty”. My apologies for the length of the quote, but it is worth the read.

Chapter IV: Of the Limits to the Authority of Society over the Individual

WHAT, then, is the rightful limit to the sovereignty of the individual over himself? Where does the authority of society begin? How much of human life should be assigned to individuality, and how much to society? Each will receive its proper share, if each has that which more particularly concerns it. To individuality should belong the part of life in which it is chiefly the individual that is interested; to society, the part which chiefly interests society. Though society is not founded on a contract, and though no good purpose is answered by inventing a contract in order to deduce social obligations from it, every one who receives the protection of society owes a return for the benefit, and the fact of living in society renders it indispensable that each should be bound to observe a certain line of conduct towards the rest. This conduct consists first, in not injuring the interests of one another; or rather certain interests, which, either by express legal provision or by tacit understanding, ought to be considered as rights; and secondly, in each person’s bearing his share (to be fixed on some equitable principle) of the labours and sacrifices incurred for defending the society or its members from injury and molestation. These conditions society is justified in enforcing at all costs to those who endeavour to withhold fulfilment. Nor is this all that society may do. The acts of an individual may be hurtful to others, or wanting in due consideration for their welfare, without going the length of violating any of their constituted rights. The offender may then be justly punished by opinion, though not by law. As soon as any part of a person’s conduct affects prejudicially the interests of others, society has jurisdiction over it, and the question whether the general welfare will or will not be promoted by interfering with it, becomes open to discussion. But there is no room for entertaining any such question when a person’s conduct affects the interests of no persons besides himself, or needs not affect them unless they like (all the persons concerned being of full age, and the ordinary amount of understanding). In all such cases there should be perfect freedom, legal and social, to do the action and stand the consequences.

It would be a great misunderstanding of this doctrine to suppose that it is one of selfish indifference, which pretends that human beings have no business with each other’s conduct in life, and that they should not concern themselves about the well-doing or well-being of one another, unless their own interest is involved. Instead of any diminution, there is need of a great increase of disinterested exertion to promote the good of others. But disinterested benevolence can find other instruments to persuade people to their good, than whips and scourges, either of the literal or the metaphorical sort.

<snip>

http://www.bartleby.com/130/4.html


Comment:

Much of what we have been discussing here is ground that has been trod time and again. We have freedoms, and we should excercise and defend those freedoms. But there are times when the exercise of our freedoms can be the cause of harm to others, who also have the freedom to not be harmed by another. Each individual has the moral obligation to excercise their freedoms, but with the potential impact of those freedoms upon their fellow man’s welfare.

Let us excercise our freedom of speech to protect and improve life for all men, but with circumspection towards the political realities in the world.

Okieman – at 12:23

Correction:

“but with the potential impact in mind of those freedoms upon their fellow man’s welfare.”

FrenchieGirlat 12:30

Friends, please. I plead with you. Take some time for a cup of coffee or a glass of wine, relax, sleep over it, and come back tomorrow with the will to compromise. I could say things too but I need to work them out calmly in my head. Your sparring tears my heart because I can see both sides of the argument and its a terrible dilemma to propose one way or another. Please, please, will you agree to disagree for a few hours? And then, perhaps there will be light for all? Thank you.

DemFromCTat 13:21

FrenchieGirl – at 12:30

You are absolutely right. The discussion is useful and good; it’s a feature and not a bug. And things do not have to be decided immediately.

There’s plenty of room for compromise. This is a group site, with moderators. There are some important principles here, but there’s also many different ways to get to the same place.

The topic of mistakes and consequences of those mistakes made by our government and any other (including WHO) is open for discussion here as it pertains to flu, at least. Consider the excellent points made about wishing to work with the people in each country we can reach.

Our words can have unintended consequences. The approach of “I don’t agree with you and in any case I don’t think it’s a big deal” is not a helpful frame. As moderators and editors, we do believe it to some extent and we do think it’s a big deal, and since we are responsible for the site, we will act accordingly (if reluctantly). I strongly disagreed with my friend Monotreme, for example, that the “Worm of Weybridge” thread was in the least helpful yet the pressure that Monotreme spearheaded in multiple other threads was. I was not the only person to suggest different language, publicly and privately. I’m not especially happy, as stated, with the tone of the “Worm” post in question, but that’s a personal observation fwiw.

We did not intend for this latest post to disappear forever and it’s been restored with not a comma modified. What to do? In this instance, we advise write what you want, and try to keep the most inflammatory language out of the premise of the post and the title. Let the logic lead you to where it leads you. A post titled “Questions About…” would likely not have led to this controversy. But when someone deliberately tries to be as inflammatory as possible, or as inflammatory as the mods will allow, because that is their intended goal, well, what happens happens. The mods will say “that’s not a great idea” and do what mods do, which is to protect the site integrity while simultaneously keeping it viewed by as many people in the world (literally) as we can.

So here’s another conundrum. We want to help everyone prepare, and we do it ourselves because governments aren’t. Do we want to be partners or do we want to be independent antagonists. Skip Asian countries for the moment… what of we’re talking about the US, or what if we’re talking about WHO or whatif we’re talking about local governments? How should we comport ourselves if we really want a voice?

Again, FrenchieGirl is right. This does not require an immediate answer.

Tom DVM – at 14:12

“Do we want to be partners or do we want to be independent antagonists.”

I want to be a partner but they leave me no choice but to be an antagonist. /:0)

I will be the first to compliment China and its ‘blank’ the World Health Organization when they change their ways…

…In the 1930′s there was one voice in the wilderness…Winston Churchill…he was considered a heretic and slightly ‘mad’…

…and we all know how that story turned out.

We are now talking about a threat to potentially many multiples of the second world war…a threat that can reach in our homes and take our loved ones…

…I think the criticism I heap on those most responsible, the Communist Government of China and the World Health Organization, a minor issue when considering the overal scene laid out before us!!

Average Concerned Mom – at 14:27

DemfromCt

Since joining this Flu Wiki, I have learned to think (at least a little bit) like:

and now it sounds like you are asking me to think like — a diplomat?

When does it stop?

Homesteader – at 14:34

Average Concerned Mom 14:27

plus you can multi-task! LOL! You may need to change to “Super Mom”

I assume the (at least a little bit) was in reference to the “Average Public Health Official.” :)

gardner – at 14:49

Average Concerned Mom – at 14:27 a survivalist, a virologist, an epidemiologist, a public health official, and now a diplomat? When does it stop?

I’m just glad we’re not being asked to fill in for pogge fixing all of our mistakes and getting the server working again after it goes down.

Or maybe that will be next week.

Dude – at 15:30

…”I believe it is important to uphold free speech and open access to information. That’s the reason for the existence of Fluwiki, and the reason why I choose to make myself clear here.”…

I believe it is paramount to uphold free speech and open access to information in a Democracy like the United States. You can’t allow for the context of the Communist Chinese Government on the one hand and forget the context of a Democracy with free speech on the other hand simply because the Chinese context does not allow the other to exist.

…”I believe that writing on public forums is not free lunch, that it carries a responsibility to remember the power of words to do harm as well as good. As a physician, the no 1 rule of ethics is ‘Do no harm’. I believe this rule should also apply to public speech.”

In science, in order to come to a conclusion, one must first sate a hypothesis and then test that assumption. We can’t know if we are right until we gather data, arrange our facts, draw our conclusions, rework our assumptions and get peer review. While the wiki is not a scientific exercise, it proceeds in much the same way. Look at many of the treads. Any person can use their freedom of speech to start a thread, present their case, draw their conclusions, choose their language and tone. The others in the wiki respond to the totality of what is said and how it is said. This wonderful process allows us to challenge the facts, make an opposing argument, attack the assumptions, and challenge the tone and debate.

When I was a nationally recognized antiwar activist while on active duty in the military, I had to submit every speech I made to the base information officer. It had to be cleared by them, before I was allowed to say anything to an audience I was to address. In this context, my free speech was not a “free lunch.” This made sense in this context and I did fully comply with this request.

In our context here, it makes no sense to me to be cutoff from the exercise of free speech before all the words, data, conclusions, information, arguments have been made by all of us and we force Montreme to “eat his words or tone” or “agree with him on every point.” Neither extreme is likely here. So, the action of closing a thread may just be justified and the thread may even be scrapped as having no redeeming social value, but never as soon as it was done in this context.

“…I believe that citizens can do a lot of good by their actions, and those actions do not necessarily have to be antagonistic to TPTB…”

Yes, I agree. It takes work and care. I must add that speaking truth to power also does put you in an antagonistic position no matter how you turn a phrase. Western civilization in its best form requires that the individual be able to express ideas contrary to the agenda of the nation state. It is the only way that its citizens can talk among themselves to come to the truth of a matter. Getting at the truth by the process is the key; having every truth clearly stated and documented at first is an insurmountable task that would bring discussion to a grinding halt. We certainly can learn to phrase our suppositions so as to do no harm, I strongly agree with that, but we must also allow the process of coming to our collective conclusions.

I am going to sleep on all this.

Tom DVM – at 15:38

A thought just came to me. While we are sitting here discussing the finer interpretation of ethics in a global context, China Flu maybe just about to break out in Nepal.

diana – at 15:54

What is going on here? I’m going to print this out to read when I have the time. The wiki must consider China in every post, so as not to offend?That means every casual anonymous statement must be read and allowed to run by the mods. Are you actually going to kow tow?

Bronco Bill – at 16:41

diana – at 15:54 --- Based on previous, similar, discussions, I don’t believe so. In fact, the act of censorship on FluWiki is what caused this series of threads to be created in the first place.

I know the Mods are not censoring anyone…only trying to make sure that as many people as possible are able to have access to the site. If a government finds the wiki/forum offensive to their ideals, and they block their citizens from having access to this information, then at some point something was said/entered/posted here that offended them. I think that is what the Mods are trying to avoid…

anon_22 – at 16:44

Tom, just to illustrate a point, HIV was first diagnosed in the US in gay people. Should we have called it the American Gay Virus?

anon_22 – at 16:55

Or, to ask the question in a different way, are we here to save lives, or are we here to create more conflict? I’m referring to Tom’s China flu comment.

DemFromCTat 16:58

diana – at 15:54

Nope. That’s not what was said. Please reread my post at at 13:21. The Chinese government hasn’t contacted me and I have no idea what they are thinking. But if I may be so bold, more important than my post is the one by Average Concerned Mom – at 14:27.

As to “every casual anonymous statement”, it’s one thing to start a provocative post with a provocative title, and another to make a casual statement. When mods feel that the site is going off in a direction that is needing correction, correction (be it a closed thread or the extremely rare thread pulling, and putting back with a disclaimer) is going to occur. That’s the role of the mods. It doesn’t mean every decision will be the right one, and some wrong ones can be adjusted later - the “least harm” approach will be taken. That’s not up for debate, and has been discussed before.

As a matter of policy, it would be helpful to avoid calling things Malaysian flu or China flu, for example. That’s a good way to offend someone, and was actually a problem when “Hong Kong flu” was used in a previous context.

lauralou – at 16:58

All I can say is over the last year, I would have learned far less if you all agreed all the time.

That being said, I would encourage everyone to step back from the conversation and think- not decide.

There is always some tiny patch of middle ground- somewhere. Even if it means that eveyone draws their line, stands on it, and then reaches out with one hand.

anon_22 – at 16:59

Dude, and everyone else, This thread has gotten long so it easy to miss what the point of all this is. May I respectfully suggest that you read carefully all of my previous comments to find out where I draw the line.

pogge – at 17:26

Speaking of how long this thread has gotten, I just opened a new new one. Closing this.

DemFromCTat 17:28

lauralou – at 16:58

FrenchieGirl said the same, and you’re both right.

giraffe – at 17:31

Is the wiki runnin’ a bit slow, or is it all just on “my end”?

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Posts for Posterity

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Posts for Posterity

21 October 2006

Average Concerned Mom – at 13:39

Some posts are so thought provoking they must not be missed.

However they may be too long for the quotes thread, so place them here.

It would be helpful if you could indicate which thread they came from (and the time), so anyone wishing to see the context of the post could easily do so.

A link would be even better.

I hope in this way, even those who are short on time could quickly read through this thread and find the latest “deep thoughts” of the dau or week!

(You’re welcome, Tom) (-:

Average Concerned Mom – at 13:40

aw crud, deep thoughts of the DAY.

I really did try to proofread, too.

Tom DVM – at 13:45

Wow!! You’re psychic too.

Tom DVM – at 13:48

I don’t mean to be harsh, but I see a lot of people ignoring reality here. In a severe pandemic, reality will be extremely harsh, and won’t care what the paper says.

Harsh reality is that in the event of even a mild pandemic, you will not have either the beds available or the staff available to provide care to present standards.

Let’s take a hypothetical hospital I know about, Hooville Hospital. It has about 565 beds, and presently averages 81% fill rate for those beds. It has about 700 doctors and 1600 nurses. It’s located in Hoo County, which is around a hundred miles from a very large metro area (5 million people) and about 60 miles from a large metro area (1 million people).

Hoo county has about 90,000 permanent residents, and houses about 25,000 students at HooU, and is the health care service hub for the surrounding counties which have about another 160,000 people in the surrounding area.

Assume that all students are immediately sent home at the start of the pandemic so that the 10,000 beds of student housing are made available for flu patients.

Assuming only a 1918 level pandemic, at the end of week 1, Hooville Hospital will have seen at least 4500 patients. of those, at least 2250 will “require” admission; 450 will require ICU level care with ventilators. Assuming all the current patients are discharged immediately and that less ill patients will be discharged to make room for the more severly ill, there will be room for the 450 critical patients and 115 of the rest. Average stay for these patients is 2–4 weeks.

Assume all deaths occur only in critical patients. Of these critical patients, 225 will die, many quickly, some slowly. Assume half die quickly, and the rest die within 4 weeks; other patients will be admitted as soon as beds are cleansed and cycled.

At the end of week 1, the hospital will have 338 critical patients, 227 less severely ill patients, only 630 doctors left, and only 1440 nurses. It will also have 113 dead bodies to dispose of, and the morgue facility has space for only 24. Local funeral parlors have space for about 25. The local ice skating rink can stockpile as many as 600 bodies, however. The student dorms are now housing around 4000 very ill flu patients.

At the end of week 2, the hospital will have 565 critically ill patients. Some critically ill patients will not be seen at the hospital, all others will not be seen, and the docs will be down to 560, assuming all show up. Nurses will be down to 1300 or less. The dorms will be about full, with 8000 patients. (Who feeds these people or changes the linens?) This assumes that there is no civil disturbance, and that no locals “insist” with use of force, that their relatives be seen, a considerable assumption.

Q- how many nurses are required per day to support one ICU patient? 2? 3?

Q- How many ventilators are required (565)? How many does Hooville Hospital have? 25?

Q- Where are all the bodies going to go?

Q-What about all the people from the outlying counties, the other 160,000 of them? Where do they get medical care? There is another smaller hospital in town with a couple hundred beds, but they’ll be overrun too.

Q- Who takes care of those in the dorms?

Q- What happens if the large cities to the north and east collapse?

So, 2 weeks into the pandemic we see that the health care system in one real hospital, in one real town, is overwhelmed in less than 2 weeks, and in many ways this is much better than can be expected in most locations in the US.

My point is, that if we are to be serious about trying to plan for an emergency, that we have to start with what the reality is now, and the reality is that we have NOWHERE NEAR the capacity required to deal with a pandemic using present protocols.

We have no antivirals. We will have no vaccine. we will have a tiny fraction of the ventilators needed. We will have a small fraction of the professional HCW needed.

Therefore, it is simply absurd to state that we will be able to care for the pandemic victims under these circumstances. Realistic plans for such an event will have to be based on telling people to stay home if they have the flu, on providing expedited burial services, and trying to prevent collateral damage. We will need docs and nurses after the pandemic to treat bacterial pneumonia. Panflu is a viral tidal wave. Killing our HCWs trying to stop it is like trying to stop a tsunami by lying down on the beach.

We WILL need HCW skills to treat those who survive the virus; not only is that a situation where trained HCWs could make a difference, but we will need plasma from the survivors to transfuse the newly ill and save lives. IMO, the only thing to do at the start of a pandemic is to close the hospitals, send everyone home, and tell everyone that they are on their own. alternately, you might set up a screening and triage station outside the facility, or several of them. There you could screen everyone, give them the knowledge they need to care for the sick, admit no-one with the flu, and send them all home.

This location, btw, is Charlottesville Virginia.

LMWatBullRun.

AnnieBat 15:20

I have mentioned this on some threads some time ago. I have given up using deaths as a ‘persuader’ for people to do something. I use the numbers to ask “how will you keep business, industry and support services operating?”

The NZ pandemic plan has some profound numbers. We have a population of just over 4 million people spread across the entire country. Assuming an attack rate of 40%, and a ‘downtime’ of 2 weeks with the illness, this means 1.6 million people will be sick AT THE SAME TIME. (In the Plan, they talk about the ‘peak’ of illness being in weeks 3–5 of the waves, so using a 2 week ‘downtime’ is still meaningful.)

That puts tremendous stress on all healthcare systems and makes an enormous hole in the workforce. Further, others will remain home from work to care for sick family members - even allowing that just 20% of those ill remove a carer from the workforce that is another 320,000 people not working.

Okay, now take your city or county or community that you live in. Apply the same attack rate percentage etc to your local populace then go ask your community leaders how they intend to maintain even the most basic services during that period.

26 October 2006

Tom DVM – at 11:38

I caught the end of the GSK ad on Discovery Health channel last night. Isn’t this the vaccine with the proprietary adjuvant…an oil-emulsion adjuvant, or closely related to the MF59 adjuvant that has caused so much concern as highlighted by anon_22 on a different thread? Has the proprietary GSK adjuvant been approved yet by the FDA for use in vaccines in the U.S.? If there is truly an oil emulsion adjuvant in this new vaccine they are already advertising, and it has not been approved yet…what’s going on? Is this an effort to build early public support, without the public knowing what’s in the vaccine, and can’t find out due to “proprietary” status?

For the record, I do not always take an anti-vaccine stance; but I am in favor of full testing, full disclosure, and informed consent. Sometimes the testing of biological products is not thorough; and the current level of knowledge about interactions in molecular biology is not as complete, or has not penetrated as thoroughly, as we would like to think. We are not God, yet…if ever…and there is need to behave in the professional world with great respect. Hopefully the public will demand full disclosure, and will be cautious about what they allow themselves to believe.

Words of Wisdom…Beehiver

tjclaw1 – at 11:49

I need some help figuring out a hypothetical for my county in the event of a 1918-type pandemic like you’ve done above - how many people will be sick, require hospitalization, die, etc.

County population: 36,000 Hospital beds: 60

beehiver – at 11:55

Tom DVM, thanks.

I am very upset by all this vaccine stuff this morning. I am, thank God, at the beach…and need to go for a walk, get my feet on a small place between the earth and the ocean for awhile. What a h^&* of a position to be in, that we might have to choose between being ill with this virus, or possibly life-long illness from vaccine side effects. I am tired of the deception and the secrecy.

I appreciate the connection, Tom.

27 October 2006

Tom DVM – at 12:37

Ants, were all ants running around on the surface of this planet in order to generate wealth. What is wealth? Food, shelter, goods, medical care, entertainment, etc. What activity is necessary for a nation as rich as ours to survive for six months with nobody going to work unless you are part of that minimal, absolutely necessary activity to keep us alive. I personally believe we can muster the resources to feed, house, and keep some of the lights on for long enough during this 6 mo. for most of us to survive, if we jut suspend the stupid economy that is not necessary. Bill me. I will agree to work off the effect on the Gross Domestic Product. So, just figure out who is necessary and shelter them at the place of work and figure out how to keep the water, lights and food coming. Let that be the only essential activity. Now, we can think of lots of creative ways to stop a “few” essential workers from spreading the flu when they do things and move about. We might have enough n95 masks, PPE, and pre-flu vaccines with some protection to get just that job done. And if we pass national legislation that suspends all contractual obligations without interest for the duration of the emergency and pay those who are involved in essential services a bonus for the risk (bill me for that too) then we may just save almost everyone and come out with our infrastructure and workforce in tack and rested from a home “vacation” with family and or friends. So, we are not capable of planning that? Give me a break. Stockpile everything you can think that we would need to do this (oh, bill me for that too). I don’t give a damn about the economy, I care about the people. Let us see the models of that.

Dude.

Reconscout – at 13:27

I fully agree with you Tom.Another thing which is being ignored is the desparate necessity to build up food reserves for when the system tanks.Right now there is only a two month inventory.Years ago when we had subsidies for grain farmers(admittedly a pork barrel)the US had grain reserves for nearly two years.If we had legislation now to insure heavier than normal planting in the spring we might make it if the pandemic holds off until next flu season.You can bill me for that one.

Tom DVM – at 17:02

The Doctor at 22:46: Dr. Grattan, while I deeply respect your input and concern on medical issues, there is no way for you to know what path will be the best one to take for families to survive, based on the fact that we don’t know yet what the landscape will look like.

You assume a CFR somewhere between 2% and 8%. What if it is much higher than that? What if our points of sale and distribution systems shut down for longer than 3 months? What then? How long do you really think our meager yet efficient stockpiles will last for just our families alone? The point is, your suggestions may work under one scenario, but they certainly cannot work under all scenarios. In other words, I feel a plan must be more fluid, more flexible.

You mention that it is within man’s nature to band together in the face of calamity, and that each member of the group will add his or her skill to the common good. That may work for other parts of the world, but will it really work in most of the developed countries? It seems aside from just-in-time deliveries, we are also a vulnerable society in that many of the old useful skills and arts have been greatly diminished, if not extinguished. Look at the medical profession for example. How many doctors make house calls today? How many could go back to making house calls if they wanted to? Put another way, how many doctors are so specialized in what they do that they can no longer provide an adequate level of patient care regardless of the cause of illness? I would submit to you that not many could. How many blacksmiths do you know? How many people know how to make their own clothes, let alone wash them without a washing machine? Take a good, hard look around you. Most of your neighbors are accountants, administrators, yes, even lawyers. I don’t mean to disparage these groups, especially since I’m in one of them, but how many of these folks have useful skill sets in a pandemic setting?

The Romans used to say, “never judge a man’s life until you see the way he dies.” It’s obvious that we are all going to die someday. However, I surely don’t want to die the way I have read about in John Barry’s book. I don’t want my family to go out that way, either. I’m pretty sure everyone feels the same way. That means that when faced with that kind of horrible death, most folks would do anything they could to protect themselves and their families from it, at all costs. If another family knew what kind of medicines you had, and they feared they were afflicted or about to become afflicted with bird flu, do you really think they would defer to the greater good of the community? The same goes with food and starving to death. Neither picture is very pretty, and the Romans would probably agree that a man, woman or child who suffered that kind of death “did not live a good life.”

Furthermore, I don’t believe anyone would stop and think what the legal ramifications would be if they or their family was subjected to loss of life or limb due to anarchy. Historically, there have been common law defenses to an otherwise criminal act where the person found himself or herself in such a situation. A look at the definition to “necessity” under Black’s Law Dictionary reads:

A person is excused from criminal liability if he acts under a duress of circumstances to protect life or limb or health in a reasonable manner and with no other acceptable choice.

I would think if a man’s life were threatened by his neighbors, he would not be contemplating whether he should protect himself or not due to what the law may or may not do to him afterward. Remember, it is better to be judged by twelve than be carried by six. And if he is in the position of being judged by twelve, remember, those twelve would have managed to survive the pandemic somehow. I think those prospective jurors would be more or less sympathetic with their fellow survivors.

By your most recent comments (above), you seem to be arguing almost the opposite point of view, or “Necessitas publica major est quam privata” (Public necessity is greater than the private). But isn’t this the same kind of argument that doctors are now using in order to deny requests for Tamiflu scripts? Aren’t they saying, in effect, “I can’t take care of you, an individual (even though you are my patient), when we might need these scarce resources in the event of a pandemic.”? Or are you saying that the synergistic benefits of belonging to the group would outweigh each lone individual’s achievements? But I don’t believe that for my reasons stated above. Moreover, I just don’t see the group reward is worth the risk in an infectious disease situation.

Although I can’t readily agree with your suggestions on the PSG, they are thought-provoking. Moreover, it is conceivable that a situation would arise where a PSG would be preferable (low infection rate, low CFR, etc.) I appreciate your taking the time to further explain your position.

De jure

Tom DVM – at 17:06

PSG = Pandemic Survivors Group…a group of citizens that band together to as a group face a pandemic…rather than as a family or individual.

29 October 2006

Tom DVM – at 20:08

Itfs funny how some are so quick to brush aside gold and silver yet historically if you look practically anywhere in the world with basic civilization and trade you could get along quite well with plenty of silver or gold.

Now I grant that if you are expecting a loss of 95% of humans on the planet and going back to a caveman like way of life gold and silve my not do you much good while you are out hunting down the bear for dinner. I on the other and donft expect things to sink to that level. As long as there is basic trade, basic government or basic civilization silver and gold will do you well. Whether you are looking at the situation in Zimbabwe today where they they are better off using their $500 bills instead of toilet paper because one sheet of tp is worth more than the bill, Argentina in the 90Œs, Mexico or Brazil in the 80Œs, Germany in the 20Œs where people loaded up their wheelbarrow with printed money to go buy one loaf of bread, the US in the depresion, Holland during itfs Tulip mania, or the Roman Empire you will have done fine economicly with silver or gold.

Granted two hours after the 9.0 earthquake or the day after a EMP blast takes out all electronics in the country it is not the time to try to survive using your silver or gold. This is where your other preps come into the picture. Still, at some point, whether is it days, weeks or months after the event your silver and gold will have value. For some reason civilization goes back 100 years, guess what - silver and gold were valuable then; civilization goes back to colonial levels, guess what - silver and gold were valuable then; civilization goes back to medieval levels, guess what - gold and silver were valuable, civilization goes back to ancient (Roman, Egyptian, Persian) levels, guess what - silver and gold were valuable. In short ANYWHERE there is basic trade, government or civilization silver and gold will be valuable. That is, unless you are planning on being the only person within 200 miles living in a cave hunting that bear down for dinner that I mentioned.

Yes, other preps are vital. You need food clothing and shelter after whatever the event is. Do NOT think you can survive with just silver or gold. The day after your silver or gold may not buy you a piece or bread, this is the time your need your food, water, lighting, etc. preps, but at some point at a minimum basic trade and barter will start again (even if it is only on a Medievel level) then your silver and gold will make you very glad you were smart enough to have it.

RepoMadMan

30 October 2006

Tom DVM – at 21:10

Here is my interpretation, FWIW.

The Chinese government does not want phase 4 declared until the pandemic has started. The reason is that this will trigger travel restrictions to affected areas which would obviously include mainland China. This would decimate their economy. It would also have ripple effects on other economies, most notably the US. What would the value of factory be in country with a big biohazard mark on it be? What would happen to the value of the companies that depend on cheap labor in China?

China has controlled the message coming out the WHO via it’s control of Margaret Chan, the panflu czar. The untimely death of the former Director-General now allows for the installation of Margaret Chan as DG - the only person who can declare phase 4. I’m sure China, and perhaps other countries as well, have made it clear that they do not want phase 4 declared until there is a new DG - a convenient pause. Once installed as DG, Margaret Chan will make the usual polite noises about preparedness, but if anything thinks she will apply pressure on China, the source of newly evolving strains of H5N1, to be transparent, well, I’ve got some extra special bottled water from Harbin to sell you.

The American CDC is has very close ties to the WHO. For whatever reason, they have agreed to de-emphasize the threat of a pandemic as much as possible. They have deliberately sought to undermine preparedness in US states by claiming that .25% CFR is the worst case scenario. Further, Nancy Cox, et al., published a study that had been done years ago showing that old strains of H5N1 did not form highly infectious viruses when artificially re-assorted with H3N2. The publication of this negative, and largely meaningless, data seems calculated to provide an excuse to de-emphasize preparedness despite the fact that newer strains of H5N1 were not studied and the fact that the 1918 strain, which H5N1 most closely resembles, did not evolve by reassortment but rather by direct adaptation to humans, which H5N1 shows every sign of doing.

The net effect of WHO and CDC propaganda has been to confuse public health officials and slow down preparedness. I don’t think everyone at the WHO or CDC has bought into this. Middle level scientists may realize that something is rotten, but they feel there is little they can do. They are also probably being kept in the dark regarding some of the data. Countries and US states that rely on the WHO and CDC for information are completely unprepared for a severe pandemic. However, there is another source of information. The US deparment of Homeland Security and some people in Secretary Leavitt’s group are much more concerned about the possibility of a severe pandemic. Their message is much more serious and focused than that coming from the CDC and WHO. States that listen to them have mounted very serious preps.

I also agree that there is bottom-up effort on the part of a number of scientists to alert the world. They are meeting considerable resistance from the WHO and CDC in getting their message out. Some of them are so frightened now that they are prepared to risk their careers to warn the world. We need to support them whenever possible.

Monotreme

Tom DVM – at 21:59

Here’s what I think, fwiw. Some people get infected directly by birds which has a very low R0, say .1. However, other people get infected from a mammal with a much higer R0 say, 0.5. There are many infected birds but a relatively small number of infected mammals. The bird form is very difficult to get in spite of close and repeated contact. Poultry workers have been examined. They are almost never infected. Meanwhile, many people with only very limited exposure to birds have been infected. My subjective impression is that the mammalian form is still under selection and actively evolving for more efficient transmission. Humans are mammals and are hence more susceptible to this form than the avian form. However, it may be that efficient transmission in the mammalian reservoir, whatever that is, may still not result in a R0 greater than 1 in humans, at least not until the winter. And this is the other issue that is not often appreciated. R0 doesn’t just depend on the genetics of the virus. It also depends on the environment. It’s possible that an H5N1 strain that is capable of efficient and sustained H2H already exists, but will not become apparent until the right environmental conditions occur, ie, winter. Perhaps a strain with a current R0 of .5 will jump to 1.1 under winter conditions. After that is acheived, H5N1 will come under full selection in humans and we can expect the R0 to increase further.

We don’t know whether a strain of H5N1 already exists that has the ability to cause a pandemic in the winter, but it’s possible. If so, there is no reason to expect a decrease in CFR from it’s current level. On the contrary, I would expect the CFR to go up, not down. There is no reason for the CFR to drop until after the first or second waves have worked their way through the human population.

A further thought. Perhaps we should regard the conditions that led to the Karo cluster as an artificial winter. People were in close contact in a small room with poor ventiliation. Perhaps this facilitated H2H transmission which in turn facilitated rapid evolution of the virus to a more easily transmitted form. Fortunately, it was summer and the specific conditions that occurred during most of the transmissions in the Karo cluster did not occur more widely. In addition, it is possible that the Tamiflu blanket was also helpful. If this is the case, then an efficiently transmitted virus strain already exists, just waiting for the right conditions to occur again, ie, winter.

Perhaps this is what Dr. Nabarro meant by “God’s time”.

Monotreme

Tom DVM – at 22:27

they of course hang there hope on natural selection and the idea that the virus will die off it kills it’s hosts to quickly.

And I know you know that this demonstrates a shocking ignorance of natural selection and flu biology. For those who haven’t heard the obvious response to this point, here it is: Flu viruses are transmitted before patients become sick. Even H5N1 patients who are doomed to gruesome death are out and about spreading virus for days before their symptoms impair their mobility. Hence there is no selective pressure for the virus to decrease it’s lethality. The ultimate fate of the original host has no effect on the spread of flu.

any thoughts on less lethality over time (once it’s become adapted)?

I used to think this was a sure thing. After the first or second wave, attempts to evade the human immune system have resulted in milder strains of flu in the past. This is because the polymerase genes which are responsible for viral replication can be recognized by the immune system of someone who was infected before. Immune system evasion is now under intense selection. The result seems to be a polymerase that is not recognized by the immune system but which does not work as well resulting in slower replication, lower viral load, and lower pathogenicity.

However, there is evidence that multiple genetic strains of H5N1 are evolving in China. I don’t what the heck is going on over there, but the Chinese are doing *something* that is causing unprecedented, incredibly rapid proliferation of novel viruses. It is now possible that even if you survive one strain of H5N1 another may come along in 2 years which your immune system does not recognize putting you at the same risk as someone who was never exposed to any H5N1 strains. This would be the true worst case scenario, which even I have not dared contemplate for very long.

Monotreme

31 October 2006

crfullmoon – at 22:54

not written by a fluwikian, but…

James Wilson, 1788 …”Why may we not hope that,… our councils will be directed to the encouragement, and our strength will be exerted in the cultivation of all the arts of peace?

Of these, the first is Agriculture. This is true in all countries. In the United States its truth is of peculiar importance. The subsistence of man, the materials of manufactures, the articles of commerce - all spring originally from the soil. On agriculture, therefore, the wealth of nations is founded. Whether we consult the observations that reason will suggest, or attend to the information that history will give, we shall, in each case, be satisfied of the influence of government, good or bad, upon the state of agriculture.

In a government, whose maxims are those of oppression, property is insecure. It is given, it is taken away, by caprice. Where there is no security for property, there is no encouragement for industry. Without industry, the richer the soil the more it abounds with weeds. The evidence of history warrants the truth of these general remarks…

But is agriculture the only art, which feels the influence of government? Over Manufactures and Commerce its power is equally prevalent. There the same causes operate; and there they produce the same effects. The industrious village, the busy city, the crowded port - all these are the gifts of liberty; and without a good government liberty cannot exist. These are advantages, but these are not all the advantages that result from a system of good government. Agriculture, manufactures and commerce will ensure to us plenty, convenience and elegance. But is there not something still wanting to finish the men? Are internal virtues and accomplishments less estimable or less attracting than external arts and ornaments? Is the operation of government less powerful upon the former than upon the latter? By no means.

Upon this, as upon a preceding topic, reason and history will concur in their information and advice. In a serene mind the sciences and the virtues love to dwell. But can the mind of a man be serene, when the property, liberty and subsistence of himself, and of those, for whom he feels more than he feels for himself, depends on a tyrant’s nod? If the dispirited subject of oppression can, with difficulty, exert his enfeebled faculties, so far as to provide, on the incessant demands of nature, food just enough to lengthen out his wretched existence; can it be expected that, in such a state, he will experience those fine and vigorous movements of the soul, without the full and free exercise of which science and virtue will never flourish?

Look around you to the nations that now exist. View, in historic retrospect, the nations that have heretofore existed. The collected result will be an entire conviction of these all-interesting truths. Where tyranny reigns, there is the country of ignorance and vice. Where good government prevails, there is the country of science and virtue. Under a good government, therefore, we must look for the accomplished man.”…

If we would be happy; we must be active. The Constitution and our manners must mutually support and be supported. Even on the Festivity, it will not be disagreeable or incongruous to review the virtues and manners that both justify and adorn it.

Frugality and temperance first attract our attention. These simple but powerful virtues are the sole foundation, on which a good government can rest with security. They were the virtues which nursed and educated infant Rome, and prepared her for all her greatness. But in the giddy hour of her prosperity, she spurned from her the obscure instruments, by which it was procured; and in their place substituted luxury and dissipation. The consequence was such as might have been expected. She preserved, for some time, a gay and flourishing appearance; but the internal health and soundness of her constitution were gone. At last she fell, a victim to the poisonous draughts, which were administered by her perfidious favorites. The fate of Rome, both in her rising and in her falling state, will be the fate of every other nation that shall follow both parts of her example.

Industry appears next among the virtues of a good citizen. Idleness is the nurse of villains. The industrious alone constitute a nation’s strength. I will not expatiate on this fruitful subject. Let one animating reflection suffice. In a well constituted commonwealth, the industry of every citizen extends beyond himself. A common interest pervades the society. Each gains from all, and all gain from each.

It has often been observed that the sciences flourish all together. The remark applies equally to the arts. Your patriot feelings attest the truth of what I say, when, among the virtues necessary to merit and preserve the advantages of a good government, I number a warm and uniform attachment to liberty, and to the Constitution. The enemies of liberty are artful and insidious. A counterfeit steals her dress, imitates her manner, forges her signature, assumes her name. But the real name of the deceiver is Licentiousness. … With the giddy and undiscerning, on whom a deeper impression is made by dauntless impudence than by modest merit, her pretensions are often successful. She receives the honors of liberty, and liberty herself is treated as a traitor and an usurper.

Generally, however, this bold impostor acts only a secondary part. Though she alone appear, upon the stage, her motions are regulated by dark ambition, who sits concealed behind the curtain, and who knows that despotism his other favorite, can always follow the success of licentiousness. Against these enemies of liberty, who act in concert, though they appear on opposite sides, the patriot citizen will keep a watchful guard. A good constitution is the greatest blessing, which a society can enjoy. Need I infer, that it is the duty of every citizen to use his best and most unremitting endeavours for preserving it pure, healthful and vigorous? For the accomplishment of this great purpose, the exertions of no one citizen are unimportant. Let no one, therefore, harbour, for a moment, the mean idea, that he is and can be of no value to his country. Let the contrary manly impression animate his soul. Every one can, at many times, perform to the state, useful services; and he, who steadily pursues the road of patriotism, has the most inviting prospect of being able, at some times, to perform eminent ones.

Allow me to direct your attention, in a very particular manner, to a momentous part, which, by this Constitution, every citizen will frequently be called to act. All those in places of power and trust will be elected either immediately by the people; or in such a manner that their appointment will depend ultimately on such immediate election. All the derivative movements of government must spring from the original movement of the people at large. If, to this they give a sufficient force and a just direction, all the others will be governed by its controlling power.

To speak without a metaphor; if the people, at their elections, take care to choose none but representatives that are wise and good; their representatives will take care, in their turn, to choose or appoint none but such as are wise and good also. The remark applies to every succeeding election and appointment. Thus the characters proper for public officers will be diffused from the immediate elections of the people over the remotest parts of administration. Of what immense consequence is it, then, that this primary duty should be faithfully and skillfully discharged? On the faithful and skillful discharge of it the public happiness or infelicity, under this and every other constitution, must, in a very great measure, depend. For, believe me, no government, even the best, can be happily administered by ignorant or vicious men.

You will forgive me, I am sure, for endeavouring to impress upon your minds, in the strongest manner, the importance of this great duty. It is the first concoction in politics; and if an error is committed here, it can never be corrected in any subsequent process. The certain consequence must be disease. Let no one say, that he is but a single citizen; and that his ticket will be but one in the box. That one ticket may turn the election. In battle, every soldier should consider the public safety as depending on his single arm. At an election, every citizen should consider the public happiness as depending on his single vote.

A progressive state is necessary to the happiness and perfection of Man. Whatever attainments are already reached, attainments still higher should be pursued. Let us, therefore, strive with noble emulation. Let us suppose we have done nothing while any thing yet remains to be done…”

02 November 2006

Tom DVM – at 09:04

Old news - The New Straits Times, March 31, 1999

Singapore - Another eleven abattoir workers in Singapore have been tested positive for a newly-detected virus, one of the two which has killed 71 people in Malaysia. A government statement said the Hendra-like virus was detected in blood samples of the victims sent to the Atlanta-based Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for testing. The abattoir workers were earlier suspected of being infected with Japanese encephalitis (JE). One of them have since died while six of the 11 remain in hospital, one of them in serious condition. http://tinyurl.com/ydfg4v ____________________________________________________

I posted this because I wonder if there is a ‘trend’ in these old news stories - Japanese Encephalitis confused with ‘hendra-like virus’ and mystery illness similar to that in Nepal?? The animals killed in the abbattoir possibly a mammalian vector for it??

gharris – at 01:19 Hendra virus (formerly called equine morbillivirus) is a member of the family Paramyxoviridae. The virus was first isolated in 1994 from specimens obtained during an outbreak of respiratory and neurologic disease in horses and humans in Hendra, a suburb of Brisbane, Australia. Nipah virus, also a member of the family Paramyxoviridae, is related but not identical to Hendra virus. Nipah virus was initially isolated in 1999 upon examining samples from an outbreak of encephalitis and respiratory illness among adult men in Malaysia and Singapore.

gharris – at 01:21 The natural reservoir for Hendra virus is thought to be flying foxes (bats of the genus Pteropus) found in Australia. The natural reservoir for Nipah virus is still under investigation, but preliminary data suggest that bats of the genus Pteropus are also the reservoirs for Nipah virus in Malaysia. Where are the diseases found?

Hendra virus caused disease in horses in Australia, and the human infections there were due to direct exposure to tissues and secretions from infected horses. Nipah virus caused a relatively mild disease in pigs in Malaysia and Singapore. Nipah virus was transmitted to humans, cats, and dogs through close contact with infected pigs.

How are Hendra and Nipah viruses transmitted to humans?

Pig farm in Malaysia, 1999. In Australia, humans became ill after exposure to body fluids and excretions of horses infected with Hendra virus. In Malaysia and Singapore, humans were infected with Nipah virus through close contact with infected pigs.

gharris – at 01:26 Only three human cases of Hendra virus disease have been recognized. Two of the three individuals known to be infected had a respiratory illness with severe flu-like signs and symptoms. Infection with Nipah virus was associated with an encephalitis (inflammation of the brain) characterized by fever and drowsiness and more serious central nervous system disease, such as coma, seizures, and inability to maintain breathing.

Illness with Nipah virus begins with 3–14 days of fever and headache. This is followed by drowsiness and disorientation characterized by mental confusion. These signs and symptoms can progress to coma within 24–48 hours. Some patients have had a respiratory illness during the early part of their infections.

Tom DVM – at 09:04

Sorry, I forgot to put at the bottom that this series of excellent posts were from gharris.

03 November 2006

Tom DVM – at 16:19

Ahhheemmm….

I’m going to step in & mention something to the great minds at work here. This week is the national championship for the PBR (Professional Bull Riders). I love to watch bull riding. I’ve never come close to actually being near a bull….but that doesn’t mean that I can’t appreciate the power and the danger they represent and I wouldn’t stand outside the pen yelling at the big beasts just because they might not be able to get to me to retaliate. I’d be afraid that I’d make ‘em mad and they’d take it out on the next brave bull rider that strapped himself on his back for the longest 8 second ride in his life.

My point is, to use a bull rider’s vocabulary, we’re here to ‘git our bulls rode’. Yes, for those who don’t read ‘cowboy’, that’s bad English, but by golly it gets the point across.

We’ve each got our bull (our passion, our politics or whatever) that we feel we need to challenge and conquer proudly and we’re not going to be able to do it in 8 seconds. We’ve got a LOT of bulls to ride in this flu competition before we can get to the finals & running off other bull riders isn’t gonna help because the final score is based on what WE do with ourselves and our talent for other people around the world, separate and apart from our race or our politics.

In all the time I’ve watched bull riders, they NEVER have done anything to endanger another bull rider’s life, but instead they’ve done everything they could to support and encourage other riders. Even though they’re competing against each other, their attitude and their approach is to be inclusive to the benefit of all, not to be exclusive because they have the right to make that choice.

Boys and Girls, ‘git your bulls rode’ safely enough that we ALL benefit, even if it means “shuttin’ yer mouth” a little bit and considering the other guy.

I’ll return you to your ‘discussion’ now.

I’m Workin’ on it.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Alternatives to Full Scale School Closures

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Alternatives to Full Scale School Closures

26 October 2006

Average Concerned Mom – at 14:24

I’ve thought these ideas for a while but didn’t post, because I believe the best choice for children’s health (and to control spread of the flu) would be to close schools early, especially elementary schools and younger, as older children can usually be left alone at home if need be.

But I’m reading that there are some circle/schools of thought that say closing schools will create severe economic hardship and difficulty maintaining critical infrastructure ares (es. utilities, food supply production/distribution/etc.) which if left to fail, will cause more hardship and even death. So I am presenting my ideas for consideration!

I’d rather see schools close early in a pandemic (a la Seattle’s plan) and would choose to remove my own children from school early, but I understand that is not an option for everyone. So what interim measures could be put in effect, for that period of time between the beginning of a pandemic and the absolute certainty that schools must be closed (if only because no one is willing to come in to work anymore? This may be a week or two, up to a month, depending on how fast the disease is spreading into the school district and what other measures are being taken.

My ideas (thinking of elementary school)in random order:

“Bottom Line’‘’: It is not practical to keep young children 3 feet away from each other, nor possible in crowded classrooms. However, we can try to prevent mingling as much as possible. All children arriving on one bus will stay in one class — therefore if infection starts in one apartment complex, it MIGHT be lmiited in spread to the kids on that one bus, and in that one classroom (and that one teacher) and NOT to the rest of the school. (I’m assuming the school would at that point be closed, but of course that depends.)

Average Concerned Mom – at 14:40

two more things — on the bus — hand washing as they get on and off; and masks if possible, would be good ideas. Wouldn’t work for the littlest kids, probably. Bus driver would wear a mask, and have window open….

Sniffles – at 14:43

Average Concerned Mom – at 14:24 A very well thought out plan with one major fatal flaw: staff and children will have to go to the bathroom. Even if the children were brought by their parents to the school (family car and not a bus), the teachers showed up to work, teachers and students stayed in one room and ate in that room, all came in one at a time to their rooms through the hallways so they would not congregate, and then left their homeroom to immediately go into their family car (all of this would be difficult, if not impossible, to do), the issue of them going to the bathroom and sharing germs there would be a problem. One infected classroom would be able to infect the others via use of the bathroom. Other potential problems would be lack of supplies (soap, toilet paper, food) and utility issues (heat, lights, water).

Average Concerned Mom – at 14:48

bathroom — ack — you are right!

in the elementary classrooms I taught in, each classroom had its own bathroom, so not an issue.

But many schools have “gang” bathrooms (sorry, I know it is a bad term). Good point.

I wouldn’t expect this interim plan to last long enough to have problems with supply shortages, and obviously if there are no utilities, there would be no school!

libbyalex – at 14:55

The bathroom is the worst! The preschool/kindergarten wing of my son’s school is awful in terms of bathrooms (though probably typical). The bathrooms don’t stay clean very long, there is one large and very deep sink that operates with a foot pedal (not a bad idea, that) and no soap. The only thing that would help is this:

A child has to go to the bathroom.

There is an adult present to escort child.

Child and adult wear masks and gloves (or if no gloves, then uses handsanitizer upon entering and leaving the bathroom). One child at a time might cut down on the germ issue. Especially if toilet seat or other touchable items were wiped down w/ a lysol wipe or better yet, sprayed. However, this requires large quantities of cleaning products and hand sanitizer. Not to mention, an extra adult.

Poke holes in this plan please.

Sniffles – at 14:58

In our school district (and in most that I have seen in my state for both elementary and upper level schools), bathrooms are not in classrooms - they are in the hallways and are shared by everyone in the building. I do not know how these could be effectively disinfected after each user so that viruses would not spread from person to person.

Another issue of concern would be contamination of common door knobs/handles. In the spring/fall, these doors could be kept open, but in the winter (especially in the northern states) these doors would need to be kept closed and each child/teacher would be opening them to come into or leave the building.

As far as the utilities, I agree with you - schools will need to chose if utilities are out. I also do not know if schools work on JIT supply storage for items like all other businesses do - food, toilet paper and soap being the first ones that came to mind. If there are pandemic flu cases in the country and people make runs on grocery stores, etc. I didn’t know if these supplies would still be available to the schools.

Ruth – at 15:00

I am a substitute teacher. During the winter months it is hard for our district to find subs for the classroom because: There are alot more sick teachers, more of the teacher’s own kids are sick, the substitute’s kids are sick, or the substitute is sick..Remember, during a pandemic, all the other viruses continue to circulate too. If we had 30% of the teachers out, the school would probably have to close. Why would I go into the germ factory if I didn’t have to. I would probably stay home.

Oremus – at 15:05

Close the schools. They make the best overflow/triage centers during a pandemic (now if they can staff them with volunteers is another question).

Most have cafeterias to feed the volunteers and patients and showers for any volunteers that decide to live on site. Stack the desks outside and fill the rooms and gym with cots.

libbyalex – at 15:13

One other thing about schools: It’s really, really hard to get kids to comply with what we’ve suggested above. The young ones don’t understand. And then from 1st grade on up, kids sometimes think it’s funny to do the exact opposite of what is safe. (OK, often.) I can just see it now — some kid purposely sneezing or coughing on some other poor kid. (Or on the teacher or bus driver.) How would we get the kids to take this seriously?

InKyat 15:22

I don’t believe that keeping schools open is anything other than a death sentence for children, their families, and staff.

Sniffles – at 15:24

libbyalex – at 15:13 Even much older children/teens will not take this seriously until people they know start to get ill or die. Kids think they are invulnerable - nothing bad will happen to them and will be more likely to do risky things. (Sometimes, adults have this frame of mind too……..)

Ruth – at 15:36

I think all parents with school age children should have a back up plan if and when the schools close. It’s as important as prepping. Most parents need to go to work because they need the income, and we need to keep our services running. If the parents are healthy, they need to go to work. The parents are our first responders, our utility repair people, our truck drivers, our medical personal, sanitation people, etc. all vital services in our communities. Of course, less than 5% of the people are taking this seriously, so we are all in real trouble.

Mountain Man – at 15:41

You guys have posted some very well thought out ideas.It seems that if the pandemic starts this flu season and the disease is a highly virilent one with a high mortality rate then the schools and colleges will need to close before students and staff start fallig ill.It is hard to see how any public gathering could be safe after the infection is in the midst of the people as a whole.

 It seems the only safe thing to do is a self quarantine immediately upon hearing that the infection is in our country….or in our state.To be successful food ,water,meds,all manner of supplies must be accumulated now!!!The “on demand inventory system” will not effectively operate in a serious pandemic.There will be almost nothing to purchase in any grocery store once it starts.
 Since most Americans live in cities this plan will be exceptionally hard to follow.But I see no other alternative.
 What do youall think???
Bronco Bill – at 15:42

Where I am, at this time, it’s a moot point. TPTB have just recently stated (this past Monday) that there is no way they’re going to close public schools. Period. End of story. InKy - at 15;22 --- I absolutely, completely agree with you 100%!!

Sniffles – at 15:43

Ruth – at 15:36 The only problem with daycare backups is that these childcare providers may not want to take these children into their homes if their parents are going out into the community and potentially contaminating themselves. This would put the childcare providers and their families at risk. I have talked with a couple of people (one who did childcare in her home and another who worked at a daycare) and both would stop doing this line of work - they stated it would put them and their families at high risk and they do not make enough money to compensate them for that risk. I think the whole situation will be a big problem.

I also mentioned on another thread awhile back that our state Department of Public Instruction has not even addressed any of these issues and is thinking about looking at it sometime in late November. It is not seen as an important issue to them. Without the state working on these issues, the individual school districts are not addressing them either because “if it was really important, the state would be working on them to give us some guidance”. It is frustrating…..

Bird Guano – at 15:46

Sorry, but not even REMOTELY workable.

I’m not even going to verify a CFR before I pull my kids out of school and implement home schooling.

First sign of sustained H2H2H They are gone.

Schools are huge petri dishes.

History Lover – at 16:01

I agree that schools should close as soon as possible. My son is in a self-contained classroom where the only people touching him are teachers and paraprofessionals, and he still gets every virus that hits the school. Even adults have a hard time avoiding contact with germs.

I’ve already told my son’s school principal that as soon as there is notice of a pandemic, I’m taking my son out of school regardless of whether or not it has reached the U.S. Unfortunately for many parents who work, especially single parents or first responders, this may not be an option. Of course many of them may find that their workplace has closed so they may have no choice but to remain at home.

I also agree with you, Ruth, that first responders will be vital in a pandemic, and we can only hope that they will be able to perform their duties. So what would be some of the alternatives for parents who are needed for critical services? As Oremus suggested, could the schools be used for some sort of triage/shelter for first responders? Would other families accept responsibility for the children of these emergency workers while they are fulfilling their duties?

In other words, how can we keep all our children safe? That is probably the most pertinent issue here. Has anyone seen a plan for that?

LMWatBullRunat 16:18

Regardless of what TPTB decide, any child for which I am responsible is out of school at even the suggestion of a pandemic. Of all the things I have ever heard, this insistence on putting our children in harm’s way for political correctness’ sake and for political expediency makes my blood boil.

I’d rather take a couple weeks worth of unpaid time off, or even start looking for another job, before I’d risk my child’s life. I’d like to ask those pusillanimous pissants who made the decision not to close the schools if they’d keep their children in school if they thought that there was a 1 in 50 chance that their kid would be shot dead within a year?

Somebody in that jursidiction ought to write a really pointed letter to the editor pointing out the idiocy inherent in such a policy. And then get a rope.

Annoyed Max- Not mad yet – at 16:21

The whole idea of keeping the schools open is so retarded I don’t have the words. Here is why I am frustrated. I used to work for GSK and we used this cancer causing wicked toxic chemical in the DNA labs. Now the people that work with this chemical know its danger and are highly trained, not to mention they are wearing gloves all the time. Someone came up with the bright idea to test the doorknobs for contamination and guess what EVERY door in the whole building had it on there. Now replace that with flu virus. And you think kids are going to stay sanitary and sterile, wow I’m just glad I don’t have kids.

Average Concerned Mom – at 16:31

No plan will be perfect, but I think mitigation is important.

I agree that schools should be closed at the start of a pandemic or before. Yay! Great idea!!! (Is it happening in your town??? Not in mine!)

And I agree that kids should be pulled out of school, if their schools aren’t closed, by their concerned and loving parents, which is what I’m telling all my friends and family. Yes, another fabulous idea! Do it early and have a plan for it, especially if you have 2 parents with essential jobs, and you don’t see your employers making plans for you to SIP there with the kiddos. Or if you need money on a day to day basis. Be sure you have good backup care for those kids, in such a case, I’m sure everyone on the Flu Wiki does already.

But — I am asking people to look at the schools that do not close. Because right now, that’s the plan in a lot of areas. If that can’t be changed — what CAN be changed?

Small things? Big things? For even 2 weeks? No, nothing will be pefect. (Ask the health care workers if the plans for their hospitals will work and prevent infection.)

Plan for SOMETHING for schools. Along the lines of plans for hospitals even though it is obvious after 2 weeks they will be worthless.

Here’s why I think such planning is important.

They would be much more likely (in my opinion) to not close schools outright, but to implement “interim measures” — inform parents of their optins, let parents decide what they feel is best — and provide care for at least a few weeks until the situation becomes impossible to ignore (or the CFR does not prove to be very high). Even notifying parents of “interim measures” would have the effect of reducing the numbers of students in school by a certain percentage which in itself ought to reduce infection rate (or so I believe.) This is a mitigation in and of itself.

Bird Guano and everyone else — I am not talking about YOUR children. You obviously have other options for care for them. Me, too. Yay, us! But what about everyone else in the country — especially the kids of poor, single moms and dads who don’t speak English?

If authorities are willing to close the schools and close them super early, YAY!!!!!

But what if they aren’t? Are they going to have business as usual? Absolutely noting different in the schools until 10%, 20%, 30% to 40% of the school is sick?

My measures wouldn’t solve any problem permanently but I believe they would mitigate, and sometimes, that’s the best we can hope for. Well, we can hope for perfect, but we can only PLAN to mitigate.

Bird Guano – at 16:36

Average Concerned Mom – at 16:31 No plan will be perfect, but I think mitigation is important.


The ONLY viable mitigation method for a pandemic flu virus with a substantial case fatality rate is Protective Sequestration.

NOTHING ELSE is going to cut it.

You only have to screw up ONCE and you and/or your kids are DEAD.

Hope is not a plan.

Bird Guano – at 16:37

BTW I think the layoff fallout from a major pandemic is going to render the single-parent-caring-for-child point mute.

They won’t have jobs to worry about going to.

History Lover – at 16:55

Average Concerned Mom - I applaud your compassion and wish I had more answers for you. As you said, there are those such as you and I who have the option and the luxury of keeping our children out of harm’s way. Others will lack the resources and knowledge to adequately prepare for a pandemic or to protect their families and children. I guess all we can do is to keep trying to spread the word to others before something happens. And thanks for mentioning the non-English speaking parents. I live in an area where non-English speakers are a sizable portion of the population, and they are less likely to receive vital news. That is why I am working with my son’s principal and hope that it has some effect.

Ruth – at 16:58

They will have to close the schools, no choice if they don’t have staff. Remember, 30% of the staff will be sick. (I guess we will also have 30% of the kids out too, so we could combine classrooms.) However, schools get state funding for attendance, when it drops below a certain amount, they can’t afford to keep them open. Who is going to run the schools? I suppose we could put all the kids in a room and show a movie, but that’s not really a good idea. Trying to make up the work of all those sick kids would be another large hassle. Every kid missing different lessons. Just random thoughts, sorry….

LMWatBullRunat 17:11

ACM-

I am sorry to be blunt, but I think I must.

The only alternative to closing the schools early is for TPTB to stock up on body bags. Lots and lots of them. Small ones.

DennisCat 17:19

I doubt there will be fuel for the buses, power for the school and so on. My guess is that fuel will be rationed and used only for essential services. Using limited fuels and supplies to transport possibly asymptomatic children to spread it to the healthy ones is not a good plan. After all you could not test all the kids every day before they enter the school. One asymptomatic child and they would all be doomed. At what CFR would a loving parent send their child to a viral mixing room- 1% chance of death, 2%, 67%….. No I will keep my child (an exchange student) home and limit contact with others as much as possible, at least until a vaccine is available and shown to be effective.

Average Concerned Mom – at 17:45

Ruth — I am talking about early — before 30% of the school is sick. No, I am not assuming that 30% of the staff is sick yet. No children are sick yet, well, not with suspected pandemic flu.

When you first hear that someone somewhere perhaps in your country, is ill with pandemic flu. Someone was on a plane. Now suspicious cases are coming down all over the country. In Chicago, in DC, In Tampa Bay. Is it regular flu? Pandemic flu? Hmmmmm… not sure yet. Might take a week or two to be sure….

At that point, most major school districts are not yet planning to close the schools. Maybe with a few years time to plan, they might come to that decision — but from what I’ve been reading on other threads, there is serious opposition to that idea, and perhaps even rightly so, depending on how severe the CFR is, or at least is believed to be.

Many schools districts, if they even have a plan, say we will close when some %age of our kids are sick with suspected pandemic flu. (Like they will be able to know that.)

LMWatson — to be equally frank, I believe that many children — especially the poorest in my area — will be exposed, and possibly die, whether schools are closed or not. If you don’t send them to school, they will be exposed to the virus some other way. Their parents do not have the ability to SIP for a significantly important period of time anyhow; and they tend to have the most critical jobs; their young children will have to be cared for by someone, and this in itself will be a significant source of spread of infection. Even with prior notice, the parents won’t be able to have enough food, and they live in cities and apartment houses, and will have difficulties of course if we lose utilities. And so on.

As to body bags — any parents who have a choice will remove their child from school; if they are given notice in time to do so. With my plan, it would be EASIER for authorities to close schools — so the notice should be given SOONER (to those who aren’t alert and in tune like us on the Flu Wiki). I am concerned that schools and governments will be unwilling to make the call early enough to make a difference.

IF I assume that this will not change, what CAN BE CHANGED? Can we change how schools operate from that point in time when SOME parents will say, I want my kids home with me no matter what, to protect the kids who are going to school? Because until the schools close, they will go to school. I am so glad that people are being blunt, but I think everyone WON’T be closing the schools, regardless of what you say here on the Wiki. Assuming they won’t close the schools, is there not a point in trying to at least mitigate the consequences? I think yes.

I still say:

BEST CHOICE — close schools early (whatever that means. If it means when the first case of confirmed pandemic flu is in the country, it could mean school is out for ---- 18 months, or more right? )

IF YOU WON’T DO THAT for political/economic reasons:

For God’s sake at least have a plan! And let parents know what that plan is!

BAD PLAN: “flu as usual” We will stay open because the school environment is important. Ooops… 30% of our staff is out and 50% of our kids let’s regroup the kids around to cover bases — Oooops, some kids are DYING. A few teachers dead too — uh oh — YIKES — let’s close, who knew this would happen? — out for 6 weeks at least.

MY IDEA OF A BETTER PLAN:

If schools would all organize and agree that there is a good plan for closing early and informing parents so they have a chance to arrange good back-up child care — I’m all for that! I am just not hopeful that that is going to happen.

Blue – at 19:17
 There is no alternative to closing schools, apart from the parents just taking their kids home without permission.

 The parents need a note-ha!

 If enough parents just take their kids home.the schoold will have to shut, won’t they?

 All we need is for the general public to overwhelmingly take their children home at the confirmation of a human to human form of H5N1 and this wish will be granted. The Internet would be the best way of ensuring that this does in fact happpen.

 !!THE POWER OF THE INTERNET!! It must be used to effect desired change, should it not?

 Are we all just going to die because our kids caught it from school because we are being told that kids must go to school during a pandemic?-BOLLOCKS TO THAT, I SAY!
Blue – at 19:27
 Should the government be made aware that most parents will be taking their kids home from school when the time comes?
Bird Guano – at 20:09

The government is already aware in the pandemic model assumptions.

The school districts are the ones stuck in the 50′s mode of thinking. Business as usual. Save the ADA money.

Urdar-Norway – at 20:48

Average coenserned: you are absolutly right. we have to realise the situation many families are in.

with a strickt hand hygien, and mandatory usage of clothmasks that is washable it should be posible to lover the damage. If no one is able to cough out those visues into the air, the airborne infections will be lovered, the rest is aboust washing hands and everything else, all the time.. And hand desinfectants are not needed (but surly helps. Hot water, soap in 20 secunds is adekvate. The problem with these dsicusions is that people dont acsept the facts that it will be losses. A 100% safe situation is imposible. Dont stop any plan that is not bullet proof.

 But people have to be informed, and they should be able to choose for them self as you say. Many poor work in services like cafes etc, I would like to see all public gatherings closed, that means no job, you can take care of children at home. BUT the state has to give people the money needed, or put a one year freeze on any depht and bills.
Bronco Bill – at 21:11
On the fence and leaning – at 22:26

If they close, they will have to be closed for a long time. Depending on how things, they may not open again. That could be the biggest tragedy of a pandemic because of the ripple down effect it could have on future generations.

27 October 2006

Olymom – at 01:30

I’m working on getting our neighborhood thinking about two weeks preps (not enough, I know, but it’s a start). The schools will have to close — and people will adjust — we had a back hoe cut a power line at 9 a.m and the decision was immediately handed down that school was closed. Parents were called, kids were picked up. By the end of the day all the kids were gone and the message was check the school website to see if there would be school the next day. People coped. It wasn’t pretty, but we don’t have working toilets without power to the water system and that was that.

A lot of people who THINK they have to work will find themselves at home with their offspring. Probably the biggest hammer will be the teachers unions. There is NO WAY schools will be open if teaching is the equivalent of a death sentance. People can shed a virus 3 days before they show symptoms — that’s just too much of a window to try and figure out if Susie is healthy enough to be in class or not.

janetn – at 02:17

Bronco Bill Where are you? We should all be warned not to move to your neighborhood. But of coursse your is not the only school board that is moronic.

First off no way your going to stop the flu from spreading in any group of kids unless you drug them into unconciousnes. Essential workers are not going to send their kids off to a germ factory aka school and risk the death of their child so they can go to work. Simple choice, child or job. What would you choose? Do you think a essential worker is going to risk his/her child because society has deemed them indespenable. I dont think so. Even people who are in dire straights financially are not going to sacrifice their kids by sending them to school. Ive talked to parents who have not prepared with so much as a can of soup, but ask them if they will keep their kids in school during a panedmic and you will hear a resounding no way.

TPTB may choose to keep schools open to encourage people to work, so that the blessed economy doesnt suffer needlessly. Quess what they are in complete denial the economy is screwed no matter what. List just the non essential businesses that will go under and that in and of itself is enough of a hit to the economy to ring in a depression.

anonymous – at 02:36
 Does anyone know anyone that is prepared to leave their kids in school?

 What will happen to the people that have kids but are essential workers?
anonymous – at 02:38
 What is going to happen with Universities? 

 Ideally people wouldn’t be congregating there either!
lugon – at 04:39

Average Concerned Mom – at 17:45

I’m glad this thread was started. The issue came up at the very beginning of fluwikie threads - I’m not spending time to look that far back :)

I think it’s not a “yes/no” decision, but a “design” process. If we do it now we can be part of the design process. If not, it will design itself and the results will probably be worse. That’s why we’re here.

So, what do we do to design anything - anything from a new chair to a new anything? We look at aims, factors, who is involved and their points of view, alternatives, concepts … We draft plans, mix things, start again … We take our time. I’d love to have 8 of us in a room with a full available afternoon (you may want to try - if so, please write to me - lugon at singtomeohmuse dot com). Not having that, let’s do it here in the open, explicitly and s-l-o-w-l-y. If you hate it, just skip this enty and go for high-gear emotions. But as that (high-gear emotions) we will have later anyway, I’d go for the cool and slow at this stage.

Be warned: this design process may get us nowhere. But some perceptions, ideas or concepts may be useful later. It looks like we have at least half an hour before the next pandemic, right? Maybe even a week or two. And this could save lives, so I would like to at least give it a try.


Aims (in no particular order yet):

Factors (as many as we can, and again in no particular order yet):

Alternatives:

Concepts:


ACM - thanks so much for starting this. Moms rule!

lugon – at 05:11

It looks like what we’re doing here is historically relevant. See this other thread.

We’re already ahead of the curve in some aspects. The whole world is a hive mind.

Average Concerned Mom – at 07:35

lugon — I am so incredible frustrated with this thread, I just want to chuck my whole computer out the window.

I think the ideas I stared with are valuable and worth considering, tweaking, altering — in any situation during an infectious deadly pandemic in which we have to somehow care for young children but can’t quite manage the “total protective sequestration” thingy, which I don’t think we can — not for many.

Even if you take a bunch of kids of essential workers and THINK you have them in protective sequestration — you should still use the concept of keeping small groups from mingling with other groups, in CASE something happens and you accidentally let someone get exposed.

I am so frustrated with people on this list at times — it seems unless you propose “Death Sentence! It’s a Death Sentence! Stay at home everyone for 24 months and do it right NOOOOOOOOOOOW” (And don’t forget you will have absolutely no gas, no food, no nothing, you’re doomed I tell you!”) you get absolutely no support for even THINKING of alternatives.

crfullmoon – at 07:54

(Mountain Man – at 15:41 I agree,)

Getting people who think their jobs depend on not doing as we say to change their minds -fuggeddaboudit-

Since we have the internet, phones, handout flyers, access to (some) official plans, ect, keep getting the word out to families any way you can. Some of the non-english speaking parents, their kids can translate.

ACM, and if you were to stand up and say, “Death Sentence! It’s a Death Sentence! Stay at home everyone for 24 months and do it right NOOOOOOOOOOOW” (And don’t forget you will have absolutely no gas, no food, no nothing, you’re doomed I tell you!)” you get absolutely no support for even THINKING of alternatives - because you must be insane; the media and the politicians, and our officials, and our school district wouldn’t be going around as if everything was normal and not mentioning this if it were true!

Ruth – at 07:59

The problem is that this is no good solution. People have to and will go to work. Kids will get sick. I believe many parents will keep their kids home, but many will want to send them. If kids are beginning to get really sick at school, or horror, dying at school, the schools will close. No choice. People in the U.S. will not sit home for weeks on end. They just won’t. It will be an individual decision. I can stay home, my husband can’t. Without too much detail, his “business” must stay open. People will get sick and recover and go back to work, while the next group gets sick. Most people won’t die. We have to remember that. (I know it’s hard when it’s someone close to us.) Again this is basically a loose, loose situation, answers, many good suggestions and thoughts……

crfullmoon – at 07:59

Oh- and that’s where having something printed out to hand them may help;

the official guidelines on closing the schools because the panflu patients will be cared for in them,

what the Medical Reserve Corps guidelines say,

the government assumptions of how long pandemics last, just about any plans Assumptions are worse than what the public has heard.

Sometime just seeing the Red Cross has a home care for pandemic flu flyer gets them to look into it themselves later, instead of choosing to believe the authorities and not even go check the websites some kook hands them, (that would have given them scary news they weren’t ready to hear).

Average Concerned Mom – at 08:21

so crfullmoon — if it is impossible to get people to think about closing schools (and I know they are NOT thinking about it in my town) — what do you do if you care about the kids who will be going there?

Here’s my plan: attend a town meeting where they announce “We will keep schools open as usual”. I ask “What infection control procedures will you have in place to keep kids safe?” They say, “Hand washing and kids will be told to cover their sneeze please — we have flyers.”

I say “Death Sentence, Death Sentence to all Kids!!!!”

They ignore me and send me on my merry way.

OR (alternative here) I say — what about THESE infection control measures? COuld you do THESE? Have kids eat in classrooms? Cut out regrouping for math/reading instruction? Designate one bathroom per classroom? Other measures more extreme than handwashing hygiene but less extreme than closing the schools?

I think they’d be more likely to listen and feel this was something they could consider.

Would the unions go for this? No. But if the unions are so strong, they’ll ge tthe schools closed anyhow. I’m talking about places where the schools AREN’T going to close, at least not until everyone is infected. I do believe the plans in at least some ares are — the schools will not close — not until everyone is sick and they have to. I want to get people in THOSE schools thinking about this.

History Lover – at 08:38

ACM - Start e-mailing the news threads and this particular thread to every school official you can. I’ve been doing this and it has more effect sometimes than trying to convince people there’s a problem. I particularly look for news stories where an agency or official states that a pandemic is going to happen sometime in the future and that it will result in a high fatality rate. And the schools should have been told by now that it is more than a possibility. I’ve heard from more than one employee at my son’s school that the latest word from administrators is “not if, but when.”

lugon – at 08:43

ACM,

A great rant! LOL

You seem to feel cooperative thinkers in “death-sentence” mode are not helpful at this stage. I quite agree!

I think we need to remind ourselves of a few very simple things:

Do I freak out at times? You bet. But I guess readers on this forum are fortunate: when I freak out I cannot even type because I shake so badly! (Kidding.)

So I understand your frustration. But each boat owner needs to hold on to their own rudder, and even tie ourselves to it in case we fall asleep. Such control is not everything, but I believe it’s an important part of what we have.

As I suggested above, we need only a small group (maybe 8 people or less) to produce a few ideas. That will possibly help a bit.

There’s many of us, no?

Thanks for setting up this thread!!!

treyfish – at 09:00

my kid is home for a couple of days for defending himself.when i went to pick him up,i had a long talk with the gc and an assistant principal.they were basically cluless but concerned.mentioned about some plans.the gc knew more than i thought.she is the one that got the note i sent a few weeks ago.she may come here i hope.she knew schools would have to close ,but was surprised when i said school would be used as clinics ,morgues or triage areas.the kids will be out when I say so,not them.she says we should be getting something in the mail soon,and didnt know about the webcast last week.that confirmed for me that we control our childrens health and destiny as far as panflu goes.when it goes off anywhere my kids will be at home.right then.that day.and will still pass their grade. you see ,all schools ,everywhere will shut down.i will just have mine at home before they tell them to.the gc was an older woman of experience,the ap was a young guy.he looked a little scared to have to hear the info i was talking,she had a clue.im with INKY!

Bronco Bill – at 09:08

Blue – at 19:27 --- Should the government be made aware that most parents will be taking their kids home from school when the time comes?

I seriously doubt that “most” parents are even aware of the ramifications of leaving their kids in school in a PanFlu situation at this point.


janetn – at 02:17 --- Bronco Bill Where are you? We should all be warned not to move to your neighborhood.

It’s not just my neighborhood! I’m in Virginia, and that was a state-level decision based on the recent 2-day Pandemic Preparedness excercise.

Malachi – at 09:30

In my county all of the classrooms were given bucket toilets filled with some supplies several years ago.This was given to them by local emergency planning groups for any emergency.In my kids school there are two bathrooms for each boys and girls,and two classrooms with single bathrooms in them.If the school attendence was reduced by 1/2 each remaining class could be assigned use of only a certian bathroom.Maybe that would help.Also they could set up curtians around the bucket toilets to further reduce the numbers of kids using the same toilet.Teachers maybe get their own in a different room?My school has quite a stock of bulk hand sanitizer,They could move any dispensers into used classroom from unused rooms.

Just a side note,and sorry if this seems fatalistic,but I will not send my kids to school even if there are plans like the above in place.If I end up losing my house due to failure to pay my bills,Then I have some abandoned houses scoped out that we will try to inhabit,and if that doesn’t work we will live in our new (used) army kitchen tent in some secluded woods areas that are also predetermined. I will take in kids as needed,and try my hardest to help as many as I can,but no job or credit rating is worth my families life.My hubby and I are not essential workers,If we were I guess I would need to plan accordingly.

LMWatBullRunat 09:52

ACM-

Don’t mean to frustrate anybody, nor do I intend to deflect your urge to action, as I understand the need to do something.

However, effective solutions need to recognize the constraints under which they will be implemented, or they won’t work. ( I am going with the thought you want your solutions to work.) I am not knocking your motivation, just your means to the end. Let’s break this out and discuss it.

The situation as I see it is this-

TPTB have decided that schools will not close during a pandemic. What this really means is that schools will not close until the pandemic has proven to be severe, if it does. (i.e.- many have died and many more infected not symptomatic yet, with still many more severely ill)

What you are looking for are strategies to reduce the impact of the pandemic before the severity is known, yes?

The problem is that TPTB refuse to admit that the pandemic could be as bad as a 1918. If the pandemic will only be mild, then your precautions are not needed anyhow, or at least they are not worth the trouble they’d cause. Your precautions make sense only if the pandemic will be severe or worse. And TPTB have already said it won’t be severe, right? SO what will happen according to the Iron Law is that in those locales where the pandemic has been determined in advance to be a mild one, your suggestions will never be implemented. The key to breaking this logjam is to change the threat assessment, as has already been discussed.

Start to see why I think you may have a problem implementing your suggestions?

This refusal to look at the data is what killed a lot of people during 1918, and it may very well kill a great many more during the next pandemic, whenever that happens.

I think a more fruitful approach is to make a plan for what you’ll do for your own, then explain to your friends and neighbors what you are planning and why. If you start a grass-roots movement TPTB may decide to ‘take another look’ at their plan, especially once they talk to the local health department, which as has been pointed out already, likly has other plans for the schools anyway.

I will also point out that a child home alone is WAY better off than a child with H5N1. Folks in apartments can trade off keeping an eye on the kids if needs be; during a pandemic most employers are going to be so desperate for workers that they’ll likely be thrilled to have somebody for 3 or 4 days instead of 5, or for someone that is willing to work half-days. It’s not an “either-or”; there is more flex than you are allowing for.

LauraBat 10:02

I people start dying, especially children, I think most who are able to pull their kids out will, no matter what the school board says. Most parents will not take the risk if they are able to stay home.

The problem lies with those who can not. There are 2 groups within this category 1) those who are threatened by job loss or simply can not survive financially without being paid 2) those wher are deemed “essential workers”. Clearly arranging childcare for critical workers would be the first priority - here I’m thinking only HCW, Emergency 1st responders, utilities, food/water/gasoline/heating supply/distribution. In an ideal world their employers would plan ahead for such contingencies. In reality, most are not.

As for the first group, I suspect that initially their employers will think they can continue on business as usual, but as things get worse so many non-essential businesses will temporarily close. There should be emergency provisions stating that as long as an employer re-opens the employee is guaranteed his/her job back. The problem then is how do those people survive financially until things start to stabalize and businesses re-open.

I’m getting a headache just thinking about it all…

kc_quiet – at 10:19

I thought it was up to each individual district. Now when illness reaches a certain amount, schools here automatically close for ‘x’ number of days.

Maybe there’s an alternative to school/no school.First off, the pandemic is going to end someday, so why not pay schools now for promised extra attendance later? Then those kids affected will lose out on extended vacations for the rest of their pre- college years.And it will end up costing us more as a society, so we’d eventually have to figure ways to redistribute funds in the budget.

Also, why not use some of the older kids to watch some of the younger ones whose parents are working or dead? What would it take to do that safely?

LauraBat 11:30

KC - currently it would be up to each local area. But the state and/or eds may state that schools have to stay open or close. I think the main reason disctricts are not planning on closing is they really don’t get how bad it could be PLUS they are worried about attendance money PLUS teacher contracts(which are extremelly sepcific and laid out for years as to what days thy have off, when, etc.) Push comes to shove, if the schools have to close for 6+ weeks then “too bad teacher contracts” - you’ll have to teach in the summer and sorry kids, your summer vacation will be shorter. No one will be happy, but too bad. In the long run it will save lives.

Average Concerned Mom – at 14:12

I have plenty to say but an epidose of real life has occurred and I have to be away from my computer for a time! (-: Do not worry, I’m coming back!

Sunny – at 14:44

Well, I have to comment. I am a junior high teacher. My district closed all schools for 2 weeks due to a natural disaster.

People found a way to get their kids taken care of - some parents didn’t go to work - some stayed with relatives, etc.

The schools had to close. Period. Parents had to cope. Teachers had to cope.

Now, I know a Pandemic would be more than 2 weeks but, the same principle - no choice - everyone has to cope.

From “inside” experience, schools must close.

DennisCat 15:44

One “alternative” is to close the school building but keep the school teaching going via the internet. Now not all students (estimated that 35% of the US households have access to the internet) have access but it would be better than closure with no teaching of anyone. That would keep the teachers teaching and most children still learning and safe at home. But I am somewhat bias since all my teaching these days is for a university and totally over the net. I will admit it is not as good as “live classes” but it is an alternative. But it also assumes the power grid and the net remains up for a large portion of the people.

DennisCat 15:51

Just got back from getting my flu shot. My wife teaches middle school and the school, the insurance company, and a college pharmacy department worked out a deal. All the teachers and their families can get free flu shots (also, tetanus, ppv, hep A B C). The school nurse was quite helpful in getting it all here for us.

My wife and I were able to “slip in” hand sanitizer on the school supply list this year. The school here now has most teachers listing school assignment on line for students. The school is slowly becoming a little more prepared. But I was so happy to see the free flu shots for all personnel and families. Not great but OK for a start in a town of 600. Not exactly alternative to closure but might help a little. But again, if TSHTF my exchange student will be pulled from the school and if the net is up I will enroll her in some high school/college courses (oncurrent enrollment) on line. She is already taking some AP classes on line at school.

Olymom – at 19:20

I just went to a county pandemic preparedness meeting last night. It is likely that some schools will be used as “PODS” — or flu clinics — the idea is to set up cots and treat flu patients in various neighborhood locations (such as schools) and keep the hospitals influenza free so that the hospitals can deal with accidents/strokes/births and all the other things that will continue to occur. It makes sense — and schools have bathrooms and kitchens.

ACM, I’m sorry, I just don’t see your scenario as workable. If the flu is mild to moderate, then school systems will handle things the usual way — with some extra handwashing and reaching further down the substitute list thrown in — but if the flu is severe or severe/deadly, then you really can’t expect teachers to be teachers and public health officers AND deal with their own families needs. I’m not being a naysayer — but just picture what happens in your scenario when kids have been together on Monday and Tuesday and on Wednesday one of the kids calls in sick. Very likely, the whole group has been exposed. If not, can you, in good conscience, hold class on Thursday, knowing that some surfaces are likely contaminated? Is the teacher supposed to stay extra hours and disinfect everything?

Planning time is limited. Planning on-line curriculum or “take home” kits are steps that could be used in the event of an earthquake or coming storm or other disruptions. Your plan could work if a small community or neighborhood took the “Gunnison Colorado” approach. Apparently, in 1918 that village said “anybody can leave but anybody coming into the community has to sit 3 days in quarantine” — With no one coming into the “child zone” without a 3 day quarantine, I could then see some modified class gatherings happening. Maybe possible on a military base? I really can’t see our schools being open if part of the building is a flu treatment clinic. . .

anon_22 – at 19:34

LMWatBullRun – at 09:52

TPTB have decided that schools will not close during a pandemic.

No, they haven’t made up their minds. That was the purpose of the IOM meeting, to evaluate evidence and come up with recommendations. That’s why that meeting was so important. Read this thread for details

The problem is that TPTB refuse to admit that the pandemic could be as bad as a 1918.

That is also not correct. It was admitted (Martin Cetron, CDC) during that meeting that of the 3 pandemics that we know about, the 1918 one was the most severe. It was also admitted that there is no science that says that is the worst case scenario. However, for the purpose of policymaking, one needs to have some assumptions. So the 1918 scenario was adopted as a reference point, acknowledging that it may not be worst case scenario.

I spoke privately to some of the committee members, and that is their working assumption.

And TPTB have already said it won’t be severe, right?

Ditto with my explanation.

This is a very important point. That TPTB have NOT made up their minds, and therefore, this is the time to influence those decisions.

Kathy in FL – at 19:35

At the risk of sounding completely cynical, schools will not be willingly closed until the top administrative level begin to see themselves or their own kids getting sick with pandemic flu.

Unfortunately, many of the top-level administrators in our county do not have or have never had children of their own. They are out of touch. They are managers … for financial and risk … as opposed to facilitators and educators. If more educators survived into the top administrative levels, then our school system would be totally different from what it currently is.

That fact reflects on every emergency plan our school district creates. Its $$$ and not children at stake.

ColdClimatePrepperat 20:32

It is totally unrealistic (IMO) to keep schools open.

Viruses spread readily by aerosols in the air. People are expelling aerosols before they have symptoms. All the handwashing and bathroom routines in the world won’t help.

Keep the kids home. Schools are the petri dishes of society: the greatest spreader of disease in a community. I’m a teacher and speak from experience.

InKyat 20:57

As a teacher, I do not plan to participate in the tragical fiasco that keeping schools open during a pandemic would turn out to be, even if I lose my job. I would feel like an accessory to murder by stupidity. I am not a childcare provider; I am an educator, and I can’t educate children who don’t survive.

I think schools will close early. The decision will be handed down from above rather than left to school districts. As we all declare daily, people need to be warned in time to plan and prepare.

DennisCat 21:00

States do things differently. Here the funding for NEXT year is based on the enrollment THIS year on the 40th day of classes. So closing the school would not effect the funding for this year. Even a closure now (we are passed the 40th day) would not effect next’s years funding. So some schools would very well close. You may want to check your state’s funding of school before you jump to conclusions about your local area.

InKyat 21:10

If legislators and leaders would think this through, they would declare students “homebound” en masse in a pandemic, a status which means that the school system is still serving them though they cannot attend. Lessons might be printed, televised, or posted to the Internet. I’d like to see states prepare grade-level appropriate lessons ahead of time (if there is time). It wouldn’t hurt if some of these lessons were relevant to the challenges at hand.

DennisCat 21:28

DennisC – at 21:00 “It wouldn’t hurt if some of these lessons were relevant to the challenges at hand.”

Now if we just found someone to fund such an effort. I have been teaching on line courses (college) now for 8 years and would love to set up some relevant classes. I am sure we could get others to do the same. However it would take someone - org -company - grant welling to pay for something like a “Blackboard” course server – get volunteers to create the course materials and then offer the service for free.

DennisCat 21:30

oops, I don’t know how I did that it should have been InKy – at 21:10 above and not myself. It is not cool to talk to yourself. that’s right.

Kathy in FL – at 22:12

Most of the curriculum currently in use … at least in my state … is what is called “scripted.” What that means in effect that anyone should be able to read the “script” and teach the subject. When some of these curriculums first came out monitors would actually sit in the back of the classroom and critique the teacher. The teacher would lose points from varying from the script in any way.

That’s not teaching in my opinion. However, if the school district does consider that adequate teaching in my opinion then anyone should be able to read these lessons out … either into audio or video format depending on the subject … and it should be dessiminated to the students at home.

Whether this is actually feasible to implement if the student is in a household with illness or is dealing with grief is just another question up for grabs.

28 October 2006

InKyat 08:20

Dennis C -

I’d love to see something like that happen. Online learning would be an alternative in Internet-connected households, but perhaps only for a little while, so whatever is provided should be available in print form, too. PDFs could be duplicated, or booklets could be ordered. Half my students don’t have computers and Internet access in the first place.

There is no sense in maintaining the fantasy that the usual school curriculum can be taught in the usual manner when people are falling ill and dying, fuel and food are hard or impossible to get, and so forth. Have you ever been with a room full of students when there’s a bomb threat or a tornado warning or drug search? They aren’t going to be focused on lessons unless those lessons are relevant to their situation, perhaps even potentially life-saving.

Schools will close one way or another, folks - the only question will be whether that happens in time to save lives. Buses must have fuel and drivers. What school district has batches of substitute bus drivers? When the cafeteria doesn’t have food to serve, when the lights go out, and the heat doesn’t work, schools will not stay open. They could probably manage to stay open just long enough to ensure that fatalities double, but that’s about it.

Average Concerned Mom – at 08:42

Of course schools must close.

Of course schools will close when there are no teachers, no bus drivers, no fuel.

The question is how early will schools close?

And for those schools that don’t close super early — before any illnesses anywhere in 100 km — what will they do in the interim? Absolutely nothing different?

InKyat 08:56

We’re getting ready to install hand sanitizer stations in every classroom, near the doors. That’s great until somebody coughs. Most classrooms are crowded. Social distancing is impossible.

LMWatBullRunat 09:11

Respectfully, Anon_22, in at least one US state, Virginia, that evaluation and decision has evidently been made, and my discussion was about dealing with that decision, and others like it. Those locales which are using a more rational process are not as big a problem, and I wasn’t referring to those areas. I’m not saying that’s happening everywhere on earth.

Once you acknowledge the potential threat, most things flow logically from that, and the solutions become logistical problems for the most part. Not saying those aren’t formidable challenges, but once the right policy is in place the rest is cranking through the details.

InKY and Kathy- your comments regarding the flaws in our public education system, or the difficulty teachers will face in a pandemic miss the core problem; public schools are not designed to teach knowledge. The Prussian state-funded state directed mandatory public school system was designed to teach obedience to authority and social conformity, to maintain social control. John Dewey said so explicitly when he campaigned for the Prussian system at the start of the 20th century, and that enforcement of social conformity is why those in charge agreed to adopt the system.

Expecting public schools to teach knowledge is like expecting a bulldozer to weave through traffic at 70 miles an hour down a highway. A bulldower is not designed for precise, quick responses in highway conditions, it’s designed to smash, crush and level things to a flat, uniform appearance. Cut down the high places and fill in the low ones. And so are public schools. I realize that this may be heresy to most here, but read John Taylor Gatto and see what you think. You can get to town in a bulldozer, and you can learn something in public schools, but in neither case are you picking the best method to accomplish your goal.

With respect to the flu and schools, it is completely consistent to see TPTB adopting the attitude that they evidently have, at least in Virginia, because it’s not about what’s best for the students, it never was. The public schools are all about CONTROL, and keeping the students in school and the peons working and paying taxes keeps things under control. Any education that would occur is secondary.

This is yet another example of the Iron Law of Bureaucracy at work. The school system is not being run to impart knowledge, it is being run to perpetuate public schooling.

Knowledge of this reality is CRITICAL to understanding how to get rational policies in place to protect our children against an influenza pandemic. Arguments such as InKY’s and Kathy’s above will not get far. The points that need to be made are those which address how proper prevention enhances the reputation the School Board, how reducing sickness will help preserve the tax base and the local economy, etc. etc. You have to (delicately) point out how their failure to act is threatening the system. That WILL get a response.

Effecting change efficiently requires a detailed knowledge of the system you are trying to change.

Mamabird – at 10:29

LMWatBullRun – at 09:11

“Respectfully, Anon_22, in at least one US state, Virginia, that evaluation and decision has evidently been made, and my discussion was about dealing with that decision, and others like it.”

If there are “others like it”, we probably would be doing everyone a great service by naming them so that specific discussions can be initiated with those states. What I have found in working with numerous states and school systems is that the local public health authorities are the ones that make the decision to close schools. School boards have no authority to keep schools open under such orders.

These local health authorities work for the mayors and county judges of the state (all of whom are elected officials and very politically astute). Their stated game plan is that as soon as there is even a hint of a pandemic reaching their state, schools will be shut down, and only the governor can over ride those decisions, which is highly unlikely because they are elected as well. With any possibility for the death of a child due to calling for closure late in the event, no political animal with any sense will likely attempt to keep schools open.

So if Virginia and “others” have ulterier motives, let us know of them. After all, elections are just around the corner.

InKyat 12:48

LMWatBullRun – at 09:11

Thanks, LMWatBullRun, for enlightening me as to the nature of a profession I’ve been engaged in for 20 years. Couldn’t have understood it without you ;→.

Good teachers lead students to knowlede regardless of the impediments they must navigate. If it were not so, I’d find something else to do. You are right in suggesting that it’s an uphill battle, but children are worth the fight.

As for how to approach one’s audience, you are right in that you have to figure out what makes the people you are talking to tick. It doesn’t take long to figure out who’s a bot and who thinks and cares. I think the best approach is one that appeals to both the interests of the system and the humanity of those who work within it. People are not to be oversimplified.

Olymom – at 16:01

We’ve got two teens in high school and they have had some AWESOME teachers — so LMWatBullrun, I’m kinda thinking maybe you don’t have a family member currently enrolled in a decent public school (and there are lots). The other night I was at a meeting and three teens gave reasoned, insightful statements regarding a local issue. They clearly had learned somewhere how to analzye and prioritize.

As to school closures, I went to a meeting recently where our county health officer made it clear that it would be a public health decision (ie, not a school board decision) when to close schools, and it would likely be a coordinated, statewide decision. I live in Washington, with a smart lady as governor (who can be quite decisive at times), so I am hopeful that our state will act nimbly.

Average Concerned Mom – at 19:29

What’s going through my mind is the alternate scenarios. Anon_22 seems to be talking about some other possibilities — not just closing schools outright, early and for 6 months — but an early closure immediately, say for 2 weeks? a month? Then, a reassessment to see what’s happened — and then … maybe opening schools again? (Or maybe that’s Dude talking about that). Repeating that scenario over and over — mopping up outbreak so to speak — probably over several years time.

This is one possibility of how things could be managed. Obviously, it is not the only possibility. Obviously, anyone with any option would seroiusly look into keeping their kids home for a good three years (or whatever length) and homeschooling as necessary, or starting a bunch of neighborhood Dame Schools — much smaller in size than the typical schools, usually. (You know, like the early settlers had.)

My goal for this thread was to look at what happens — when for whatever scenario — schools ARE trying to be open, to fulful frankly one of their most important economic purposes, which is child care for essential workers. It’s not meant to start a discussion about whether schools actually teach or are useful in other ways or should be abolished; or whatever. I’m just looking at the kids who ARE under some kind of institutional care (this includes kids in day cares) during a pandemic perios — say the entire 2 to 3 year period. I assume plenty of closures, but there will likely be times during that period when one suspects there are no more outbreaks (for a while) and people will be attempting to gather children again so their parents can go back to work. This assumes that we have not collapsed into the Mad Max scenario of course. I still have to see that movie.

I realize I’m thinking ahead of public officials here. If they are still wondering whether to close schools, they aren’t yet thinking about the culture changes that will be necessary or desired after the first wave (if there is one) has passed. We as a culture aren’t used to worrying about controlling infectious diseases among otherwise healthy children. So our only response is — we must close the schools.

But if we have to live with waves and waves, for several years, of hopefully decreasing-in-severity influenza? Prior generations had more experince with this than we did.

As to the questions people had about “How can we possibly keep kids from infecting each other?” I do not expect we can. My suggestions for consideration were entirely passive and do not rely on children doing anything, little grimy germ-spreaders than they be. I suggest things like:

etc.

Again I repeat for emphasis — I am not talking about using any of these measures during an outbreak instead of closing entirely. (People keep misunderstanding that) I am talking about using them for schools that are staying open during the early part of a pandemic anyhow. If schools are just going to close completely for 2 years or more (I guess that is a possibility??) I am going to stop writing on the fluwikie and start writing homeschool curriculum because I smell a market. (It’ll be Waldorf so no electricity needed or desired….!)

After all, someone on this list said, we should care for our children at least as well as we do our chickens. Aren’t they essentially “segregated” from other flocks in inductrial poultry farms?

I wonder if those of you on this list who don’t have elementary education experience know how much kids are mixed up in most schools — I mean how much they are mingled up — moved here and there for this pull-out and that pull-out extra help or instruction; regrouped; put in PreCare and AfterCare — no wonder one kid with one infection will spread it to 50 others in the course of a week.

And AGAIN ONE LAST TIME — I am not talking about YOUR KIDS and YOUR GRANDKIDS. I get that no one on this list will ever put their kids into school once a pandemic starts, not until it is all over 2 or 3 years later! I get that! (Just want to be sure.)

But maybe some one will have to start using schools again?

29 October 2006

fredness – at 06:19

You may want to contact the National Association of School Nurses, state, and local school nurses. Also state and local departments of public health. Tell them how you feel. Provide them with facts. Invite them all to participate here. I usually include some of the text from about the FluWiki to provide some background.

anon_22 – at 06:39

I think school closure will need to be a lot longer than 2 weeks to make a difference! The key is to maintain that level of vigilance until the peak of the local epidemic is past or when 25% of people have been infected, so you have enough herd immunity to prevent big outbreaks starting again.

There will be lots of difficult problems to work through, no doubt about that. Just that if you look at the mortality figures, then its hard to argue other alternatives. The way to deal with the problems is to start now, engage in dialogues with communities, to figure out alternative childcare plans. The Harvard Public Health survey showed that the vast majority of people are able to call on family members to help, but this I suspect is contigent on us giving everybody a lot of notice. Last minute childcare is always going to be difficult, but having that as part of pandemic prep eg when neighbours or friends arrange childcare arrangements ahead of time, will foster the co-operative thinking needed to get us through.

I myself think it may be possible to open say 1 or 2 classes per school for children of essential workers and single parents. But even that will be logistically and legally far more difficult than outright closure and using other community support to cushion the effects.

anon_22 – at 06:49

These 2 slides illustrate why schools are such fertile grounds for transmission. The first slide shows the normal household density, the second one, the no of people you need to invite to your house to duplicate the density in schools.

Average Concerned Mom – at 06:56

anon_22 exactly!

And d) I know you (and I ) expect schools will need to be closed for way more than 2 weeks. But are you thinking that schools will officially have to close for 2 to 3 years? Or do you think, once this pandemic hits, and until it is no longer lethal, kids may have to go to school or be cared for in groups again?

prepmaniac – at 07:11

Essential workers and single parents are capable of figuring what is best for themselves. Some will team up with co-workers to watch kids on different shifts. A lot have family that can help. Others have friends. Other departments need to set up their on day care. These people can figure it out themselves. Just like I can for myself and you can for yourself. If I was a first responder, I would be isulted by people trying to figure out what is best for me. I would like to do it myself. I don’t want the government making those plans for me. That is scary. They might stick my kids on a bus. Who knows. Leave the plans to the parents, Please. Now for the kids who have sick parents, we need temporary shelter in the community for those children. Mabe use the school as a last resort. I think most children in the burbs and rural communities will have a place to go. The large cities are the only place I think you will have people who have no one to help individuals. If I was a first responder, I would make any arrangement besides a groupe setting for kids, or I would stay home. Any arrangement I could make would without a doubt be better than any government local or not could make for me and my children.

anon_22 – at 07:30

Average Concerned Mom – at 06:56

But are you thinking that schools will officially have to close for 2 to 3 years? Or do you think, once this pandemic hits, and until it is no longer lethal, kids may have to go to school or be cared for in groups again?

No, I suspect it will be more like 3 months, max 6 months. After that, it will depend on how it plays out in individual communities, and whether vaccines are available.

lugon – at 07:39

ACM - many of the measures you suggest could be used in other environments! Time to start a “what to do if you can’t do anything else” page? I was thinking about alternatives to buses - maybe cars with add-ons so that people can cling to cars on the outside?

Average Concerned Mom – at 07:57

prepmaniac — If parents have options then of course they can and will use them. If parents have plenty of lead time then they will have time to make plans, as well. However don’t forget that the best laid plans go astray. An essential worker (nurse) might make plans to have the kids move to grandma’s house for the duration, and then grandma has a heart attack. She might work out with her neighbor to watch her kids for her; and the neighbor agrees, until the full implications of a pandemic hits her, and the neighbor is no longer willing to risk infection for her family; or the neighbor didn’t realize she was volunteering to watch a 3 children full-time, live in, for 3 to 6 months. Or the neighbor decides to move out of the city to stay with her own family out on the farm.

Average Concerned Mom – at 08:02

lugon — thanks, I think they would be useful ideas for our society, too.

But I can see they are a distraction to the central issue right now, which is the need to get everyone on board with the idea of closing schools early. No possible infection-control measures will be useful as a replacement for that decision.

prepmaniac – at 08:35

Average Concerned Mom @ 7:57

You are right about the best laid plans. That goes ten fold for government plans. If my no 1 plan falls through, I will then look for my own no 2 plan. I would not want the government to decide for me even if I am on my no 5 plan. I will always be better off deciding for my self and being more self relient. I will never fold to the idea that I need the government to look out for me and mine. Or that the government will. Look at all the people that the government is looking out for now. Look at the difference for the people who are helping themselves. It might be tough, but people need to be more self relient and not say help me because my grandma had a heart attact and now she can;t help me. Go to your own plan B. Then C. Quit trying to get the government involved in all your problems, or mine. I am better off taking care of myself and mine. I feel strongly about this because my DH and my son are essiential workers. I don’t want guidelines and procedures drawn up to help my essintial worker family. Some how a lot of good intended ideas get put into print and become someones nightmare. Remember the people force from their homes against their will after Katrina. Remeber the people -able bodied- angry because the gov did not help them fast enough. I am sorry, but if down on my luck and had to shelter in the super dome…I would have started walking as soon as the storm was over. I would have stopped at every restaurant or grocery store, would have worked for food. Cleaned rooms for a place to stay. I would not have been one of the ones sitting there waiting for a bus to another city. Looking for someone to help me. I would have helped myself. Wha tis wrong with people. Essential workers are not handicapped, elderly, indegent. They don’t need help from the gov. Please don’t convince them that they do. Convince them to make their own plans for their children and then some back up plans. IMHO

Average Concerned Mom – at 09:20

prepmaniac:

“Quit trying to get the government involved in all your problems, or mine.”

I don’t understand where you are coming from here. Perhaps you are misunderstanding me.

I’m looking for ways that public, private, and parochial schools and daycare centers can help keep groups of children together more hygenically, in the event that the schools are open and parents choose to send their children there.

These centers or schools are run based on state government health laws, so of course the government will have to be involved if these laws are to change.

DennisCat 09:29

What about transfers? What about all those “new kids” that have fled the big city in to the country? How know if you have an asymptomatic child or when it takes a week or two for symptoms to appear even in “normal children”. How can you build enough bathrooms for each class? Who will teach the children if there is an expected 40% absentee rate among teachers and even those that recover take a month or two to recover? You may have perfect procedures at school but what about a child that brings a coat or backpack that “mom” sneezed on at home? You many think you have “herd immunity” but what if there is a second wave for which there is no immunity and even with “herd immunity” some will still get sick and die- will it be your child?

I just don’t think it would be a good idea to keep the school open in their present state. Again, I feel it would be better to use “distant learning” methods - even if you had to set up small home classrooms of just several children each.

Wolf – at 09:30

Average Concerned Mom – at 09:20

I have had many heated arguments regarding role of government vs. role of individuals.

We can do only so much as self-reliant as we may hope to be. The decisions made by government entities directly affects our individual preparedness.

prepmaniac, I agree with you wholeheartedly, and not waiting for the cavalry here. Still, anything we can do to influence decisions made at gov’t levels can only enhance - not detract from - our own self reliance.

At least I hope so.

prepmaniac – at 09:43

Average Concerned Mom @ 9:20

I was responding to your post @ 7:57

Where you were concerned about the plans of individuals falling apart. I think people can go to plan B. I don’t think they will use the school to keep their children any way. Look at the condition of the Super Dome after 24 hours as a shelter. Essential workers are not the indigent population that sheltered in the super dome. They can and will -if allowed -fend for themselves. They will not want their children in a super dome situation. The schools need to be closed. If they are not, I don’t think it will make any difference, because the soccer moms, essential worker families, ect. are not going to send their kids any way.

nsthesia – at 10:09

Dear ACM:

I gotta say this for you…ya got PERSISTENCE! :)

I truly hope most here on this forum understand what you are trying to say. I think I do understand. School closure does appear to be the most logical intervention for a panflu. (My child WILL be removed at my discretion.)

But, as we all know, the norm for bureaucracies tends to be the opposite of what is logical. THAT is why your attempt to mitigate the consequences of continued school openings is at least realistic, IMO. At the very least, I would anticipate that the schools will remain open for far too long before making that major decision to close.

We only have to see what happens during seasonal flu outbreaks to see the lack of response regarding the protection of these children. All the teachers I know in various states and districts, when questioned about this topic, state there is no plan for a panflu in their school as of yet. Remember the meeting I attended 2 weeks ago? The comment from TPTB at that time stated they were planning on a response, it just had not yet been formulated. (They were planning to plan.) <sigh>

ACM, at least you are thinking along the lines of mitigation. Because, like you, I also believe that every attempt will continue to keep kids in some form of schooling, just to meet daycare needs. “It’s all about the economy, stupid”… And, I expect that there will be intermittent times of high acuity, with weeks of high infectivity and weeks with a lull. People will be eager to restore a sense of normalcy. <scary>

So, even if we do have some closures, there will be times of re-entry between waves or even after. If this follows like the 1918 scenario, it may still be a couple of years before a herd immunity builds enough or vaccine levels build high enough and we stop seeing significant mortality/morbidity. Schools will surely reopen before we achieve either one.

Good brainstorming, ACM. Remember folks, to have a good brainstorming session, all suggestions are acceptable. And all are welcome. One feeds off the other until a solution is derived. We have to think outside of the box for a problem that none of us has ever encountered. Now THAT is a major undertaking.

Average Concerned Mom – at 12:33

nsthesia —

“So, even if we do have some closures, there will be times of re-entry between waves or even after. If this follows like the 1918 scenario, it may still be a couple of years before a herd immunity builds enough or vaccine levels build high enough and we stop seeing significant mortality/morbidity. Schools will surely reopen before we achieve either one.”

Thank you for getting my point (and explaining it better than I did)!

I think my mistakes were a) a poor choice of thread title and b) bad timing — coming up with these idea just as the “absolutely no choice but to close schools early” idea is gaining speed.

yay – at 12:44

but, but, but … (scared face) … we do gain something if we close schools early, don’t we? … i mean … you are suggesting we close schools early AND some other things?

anon_22 – at 12:57

I dug up some data from my notes that might be useful here. This is from Household Survey Data 2006

Households with Children <18

The US workforce is approximately 141 million. The only households where someone has to quit work if we close schools are the ones where all members of the household with children under the age of 18 are employed, ie 22 million. Since only 1 person needs to stop work, this means a potential increase of absenteeism of 22/141 = 16% of the workforce.

If the cut-off age for children being able to take care of themselves is lowered to 15 instead of 18, it is possible that percentage could be 10–11% only.

Also, of the 12 million single parent households, 5 million have another adult present who may be able to help take care of the children.

Since the potential increase of absenteeism and its effect on infrastructure is being vigorously touted as the reason to not close schools, these figures are important to bear in mind.

anon_22 – at 13:07

yay – at 12:44

but, but, but … (scared face) … we do gain something if we close schools early, don’t we?

Here’s what you might gain, looking at the comparison between Washington DC and Seattle in 1918

… i mean … you are suggesting we close schools early AND some other things?

As I said on the IOM thread at 21:10 multiple interventions instituted early appear to make the biggest difference. The most effective are closure of schools, theatres, churches etc.

anon_22 – at 13:10

Average Concerned Mom – at 12:33

I think my mistakes were a) a poor choice of thread title and b) bad timing — coming up with these idea just as the “absolutely no choice but to close schools early” idea is gaining speed.

No, I think you are right in putting up these ideas. There will be times when all the alternative suggestions will be necessary. Keep it up. We need everything in the toolbox, then people can figure out what works best when.

anon_22 – at 13:12

InKy – at 20:57

As a teacher, I do not plan to participate in the tragical fiasco that keeping schools open during a pandemic would turn out to be, even if I lose my job. I would feel like an accessory to murder by stupidity. I am not a childcare provider; I am an educator, and I can’t educate children who don’t survive.

Hear! Hear!

anon_22 – at 13:29

This slide shows potential absenteeism from households with all working adults and children <12 years.

Working couple and single working parent with children <12 make up 13 million. That is 13/141 = 9.2% of the workforce.

Jane – at 13:47

Should there be phases for schools to consider? Phase one, when there is pandemic somewhere else in the world: ACM’s ideas of very little mixing of children. Phase two, when pandemic reaches US: stay home. TPTB have to hear “contagious before symptoms” over and over until they get it. The TLC thread with the slides are very educational - mixing kills.

anon_22 – at 13:57

Jane – at 13:47 Should there be phases for schools to consider? Phase one, when there is pandemic somewhere else in the world: ACM’s ideas of very little mixing of children. Phase two, when pandemic reaches US: stay home.

I don’t think the decision has been taken yet. The key is to find that critical interval where you can get the maximum benefit with the least cost. I suspect for the US as a country as a whole, there is not enough reason to justify closing schools when there is pandemic somewhere else in the world.

TPTB have to hear “contagious before symptoms” over and over until they get it. The TLC thread with the slides are very educational - mixing kills

For once, this information and the slides are coming out of TPTB, or at least those working with them It is refreshing, and let’s hope they put their money where their mouth is.

lugon – at 14:32

Interesting to count how many single parents etc.

We all have to check the numbers locally, don’t we?

What other “consequences” are “not that bad”?

Science Teacher – at 14:40

ACM, Thanks for your input and for starting this thread. Many of the measures you have suggested to help keep schools healthier would be good to lobby your schools for now. Try using your PTA to get parents onboard). Some of these would be useful in regular flu season.

My concern is that school staff are not trained in disinfection or infection control. Many staff members know very little about pandemics and even less about H5N1. Very little PPE has been stocked. The school nurse has a few gloves, that’s it.

I know a lot of teachers and did an informal survey (20 teachers) on whether or not they would continue to work once a pandemic began. Most said that they would not. All had families and they said they did not want to bring ‘something’ home. Most felt they had no training to deal with infection concerns adequately. All felt they were hired to educate and not to run a daycare center.

My personal belief is that schools will close early when staff call in sick early on.

I think your ideas would be a better fit for working on the establishment of county run and funded, small daycare centers (with staff supervision by RN’s, for those parents that can present a documented need to use them.

Just my 2 cents.

Average Concerned Mom – at 15:36

Thanks everyone!

I am giving up.

The only people who have understood my point seem to be anon_22, lugon and nsthesia.

I will try again in a week, leaving out the “schools” word.

(And I’m going to research industrial chicken farming.)

Average Concerned Mom – at 15:39

and — to those teachers who do not plan to work during a pandemic — and of course that is right — are you not planning to work for 2 years? Or do you mean, not work during a “wave”?

i.e. the “spanish flu” epidemic is said to have run from 1918 to 1920….?

Or do you plan to work a bit in between?

nsthesia – at 15:56

anon_22:

Thanks for the data. Nothing like having a few “visuals” to slap you in the face.

Re: the pie chart for labor status of parents… This is where I see a problem in thinking the age of a child changes much regarding parental work status. While true that small kids present a logistical problem regarding physical care/safety, it is the teen and young adult age group that has the greatest potential for causing infection/contamination due to their poorly developed judgment and their natural need for rebellion and independence. These kids will sneak out if left alone for long.

So, all those poor parents in the remaining categories (78%) are left with a handful if they have to work and leave unschooled teens at home. Talk about a disaster waiting to happen. These “kids” are still in a high risk category for mortality, at least as things currently stand. I would not trust my stepchildren to remain indoors without supervision and they are in university. I hope someone is thinking of this older age group also.

After hearing the Harvard report, it seems quite a large percentage of the population needs to work to survive and/or their employers are not knowledgeable enough to realize they should stay home if sick. I remember reading that a good number of our population is one paycheck away from losing their homes. The majority have no retirement money to speak of. Any disruption in income earning could be disasterous for these people.

That’s why I believe alternatives to school closings will occur until absolutely necessary. <then it will be too late> I just hope we have time to work out some viable plans.

prepperbabe – at 16:13

ACM- I appreciate you generating possible scenarios. I think this is one of hardest areas to face regarding PF because it involves money and children, two very emotional topics for most people, including me.

I am a school-based administrator and I have come to blows with some staff members this past week on the subject of PF. (For me, that means I excused myself to handle an imaginary task before I got emotional back at them.) After we duked it out, I think they did some research because they came and wanted to talk in a much more open manner.

As I have stated before, I have no intention of contributing to the illness of my kids. I’m guessing it may be possible to work between waves, but who knows?

Bottom line- schools can’t stay open without fuel, food, and electricity. The danger lies in not closing soon enough. But once schoolsvare closed because people are dying, reopening them will be viewed in another light.

prepperbabe – at 16:23

InKy- I’m with you on not contributing to the madness if we stay open. We’ve agreed on this before, but it’s good to speak with somebody else who sees things the same way.

LMWatBullRun @ 9:11- I’m saddened to say that IMHO, you speak the truth. In fact, there is research to support your position. When I was a young pup, I had a mentor who taught me such and also taught that schools must be buffered from systemic madness as much as posible. That’s what principals are supposed to do. But it doesn’t always work out. :-) But to get TPTB we have to see the issues through their eyes, unpleasant as that may be.

I just have to say.. I love you guys. In a non-physical, sans sexual harrassment, gender unspecific way. Group hug.

Walrus – at 17:44

This is a great thread, and thanks for starting it ACM. I believe I can see that you are attempting to minimize the dislocation a pandemic will cause to everyone’s lives.

However, with the greatest of respect, I’m afraid that if a major pandemic arrives with the current Indonesian CFR then our lives and routines are going to have to change drastically and immmediately - or else. There is going to be absolutely no possibility, or virtue, in trying to maintain a ‘business as usual” lifestyle.

I think from reading the TLC thread, that for school closures to be effective in slowing the spread of the virus, research suggests that they must be done before the infection rate in the general population gets above 3%.

My own opinion is that there is simply nothing more infectious in the known universe then grubby under ten year olds. I do not believe it is remotely possible to enact “interim” measures because the mere act of sitting in a classroom with an asymptomatic infected child is enough to infect the entire class - and they will then take the disease home to infect their parents, brothers and sisters. The schools are perfect and efficient ways of transmitting the disease among the general population and they must close for the good of the entire community.

As for child care for working parents - tough. You have a choice, you can send them to school, in which case they get the disease and you stop working to look after them (since the hospitals will be overloaded) or you can stay home and home school them.

For those with no alternative but to work, one alternative you might like to consider is simply scaring the beejeesus out of your kids about whats outside and locking them in the house. Alternatively, start training them right now how to manage simple tasks so that they can start looking after themselves. OK I’m being flippant, but there have to be alternatives.

By the way, the Australian plan is for schools to close. Timing will be a function of medical, not political, advice.

anon_22 – at 18:58

The thing about the TLC model is that it gives businesses a sense of what is going to happen, so they can figure out ahead of time who among their staff is going to have childcare obligations, and factor that into their business continuity planning. I understand that that is beginning to happen.

Science Teacher – at 19:09

ACM, Sorry if I ruffled your feathers with my comment about teachers staying home during a pandemic. By the way, I am retired so thank God I will not have to make this choice.

I think the amount of fear that a pandemic will generate will cause many folks to walk away from jobs and stay home with their kids (and not just teachers) and fear will determine when they return.

30 October 2006

lugon – at 04:46

anon_22 – at 18:58 The thing about the TLC model is that it gives businesses a sense of what is going to happen, so they can figure out ahead of time who among their staff is going to have childcare obligations, and factor that into their business continuity planning.

And community planning too.

And family response for those who can’t or won’t SIP - or, if you’re determined and able to SIP, then to the recomendations you can make to those in your network who won’t SIP. Frame it like this: if you can’t think of SIPping, then this will be your scenario …. Sometimes people like choices.

DennisCat 12:21

Here is an interesting alternative: Use of public access cable channels for education. Local areas could combine internet and public access to deliver some classes.

It seems the best I can come up with right now. It just might work for a many students.

nsthesia – at 12:39

Walrus @ 17:44 wrote:

“By the way, the Australian plan is for schools to close. Timing will be a function of medical, not political, advice.”

IMHO, I don’t see the US schools closing because of medical advice. It will be due to a political decision. Heck, a patient can’t even get admitted, discharged or tested just because it is deemed necessary by their healthcare provider anymore. Medicine today IS politics.

If I remember from Barry’s book, politics ruled that pandemic also, not medical dictums. ‘Tis always so…

Come to think of it, where has the Surgeon General been when it comes to this pandemic planning scenario?

Science Teacher – at 12:55

nsthesia, Last I heard there is an ‘acting’ SG in place. Does anyone know if a new one is in place? The last one seemed to me to be pretty ‘muzzled’.

Here is the address if you would like to followup:

The Surgeon General Office of the Surgeon General 5600 Fishers Lane Room 18–66 Rockville, MD 20857

NauticalManat 13:17

nsthesia – at 12:39 “where has the Surgeon General been when it comes to this pandemic planning scenario?”

Don’t know, and the scary part is that for the first time in many years I do not know who the SG is. Googled and it said Dr. Richard Carmody?. That was back in June. Is that still valid? Don’t think the SG has much pull in D.C. these days.

In any case, whoever said above that the Medical decisions will be made by political types is probably correct unfortunately. That was the case in 1918 according to Barry’s book, in most cases to the detriment of the population. If my recall is correct, the Chief Medical Officer of the Army, Army Surgeon General?, begged TPTB not to put troops on ships unless they were quarentined first. He was ignored by President Wilson and they became death ships. Amazing how little changes.

Jane – at 13:33

It’s still an Acting Surgeon General— Rear Admiral Kenneth P. Moritsugu, M.D., M.P.H., Acting Surgeon General. His main page has nothing on panflu. Pandemic flu in the search window led to many links. Followed a link to a kids’ page-it said have a minimum of 2 weeks’ worth of food.

 http://www.niehs.nih.gov/kids/pandemic.htm

31 October 2006

anon_22 – at 08:29
seacoast – at 18:15

bump

Olymom – at 19:16

The University of Michigan identified 8 communities that kept flu rates way down in 1918. Interestingly, three of them were schools (Princeton, Bryn Mawr, and a Pittsburgh school for the blind) — but it seems that the key was to keep the students on campus (ie, they did not go home to families at night). ACM’s plan might actually work for colleges — but I still don’t see it happening at the elementary level.

Here’s the link:

http://www.med.umich.edu/medschool/chm/influenza/index.htm.

I hope that’s not too long a URL. (Slithers back into non-techie corner)

LMWatBullRunat 20:16

ACM-

I respect your motive and your intent in bringing up this topic.

I agree that it’s always a good idea to have a backup plan, and sometimes layers of backup plans.

And I do understand exactly what you are driving at.

I regret that I cannot agree with your proposed course of action.

With the greatest of respect, and not meaning this in any sort of derogatory way, I simply do not see how one can mitigate the impact of a pandemic on US schoolchildren. In order to effect change in the policies in place, we have to convince TPTB to accept the threat as real and to act. If they accept the threat as real, they’ll close the schools, and your plan won’t be needed.

If they don’t accept the threat as real, then not only won’t they close the schools early, but they won’t implement your plans.

I understand that you are looking for a third way, but I do not see any sort of viable third option. This is one case where it’s pretty starkly “either or” Some problems are more loosely bounded, but this one is bound by whether or not TPTB accept the threat. Perhaps I am wrong in my assessment, and if so I hope somebody will point it out to me, because the thought of millions of children dying as a result of political expediency upsets me to the point of nausea every time I have to think about it. However, that is my best “estimate of the situation” at this time.

Saying that things ought to be different will not affect the result. We have to cope with the situation as it exists.

01 November 2006

Goju – at 14:01

My employee’s mom (a teacher) is going to a Panflu conference in Worcester, MA concerning dealing with the Pandemic.

Details to come… anyone know about this?

Average Concerned Mom – at 14:33

LMWatBullRun-

I really think you are not understanding me.

I’m looking at the long term. What do we do if we have to live with this pandemic — and more perhaps besides — for 10 years?

How can we eventually change our culture to learn to live with the virus? We can only shut down and hide away for so long.

That might not be what I wrote at the start of this thread but that is what I ended up writing about.

I realized in the meantime that I have huge issues about closing the schools and its lack of effect on the poorest kids I know. I’ll try to write about that next.

Average Concerned Mom – at 15:00

OK, everyone already has ripped into me for seeming to say schools ought to stay open during a pandemic. No, I did not say that. I never said or felt or believed that.

But even so, part of me is very skeptical about the effect it will have (even though it will save some kids lives) and here are my thoughts. By all means correct me if I am wrong.

From what I understand, there’s some reason to believe that when about 30% - 40% of a population is infected with a virus, then that population will have developed “herd immunity” and a pandemic will slow down and eventually stop spreading.

So the idea of closing schools and TLC is to slow down the spread as much as possible (so hospitals and health care workers can keep up with the cases?) until that 30 to 40% infection has been reached.

This of course assumes that health care workers and hospitals will be able to handle the workload — if all cases happen in a 4 to 6 week period, obviously they can’t, but even if you spread that same number of cases out to 3 months - I’m not sure there will be enough medicine and ventilators and so on to really make a difference, but of course I see it is better to spread cases out over time than to have everything happen at once.

Still — shutting schools removes children from being vectors of infection and slows the spread. OK. All the kids with options — children of the rich, and of the well-prepared middle classes and well-prepared working classes — go home, presumably to houses and apartments with some food, some protective parents — some hope. In cities, the well - prepared, informed send their kids out to the suburbs, to Grandma in the country — the white collar workers get sent to home to telecommute — so they don’t have to go out and risk infecting their kids, and so on. The workers who have options figure something out, even if it is very difficult.

The poor — the legal immigrant who illegally sublets a living room in a countyman’s 2 bedroom apartment, housing a total of 3 families — (4 people in each bedroom and three in the living room — so very high density there in that apartment by the way)-- have fewer options. The menatlly ill, the retarded parents, the overwhelmed parents, the sick parents, the ones on dialysis, the teen moms; the seriously asthmatic, just holding it together parents — they just have fewer options.

OK, so it sucks to be poor, to be ill. This is no big news. But I know plenty of families — families of my students — who live just like I descibed, and yes, if given time and knowledge they will try to prepare, but no, very likely they cannot stockpile more than 4 weeks of food, very likely they will not all 10 of them, crammed into a 600 sq. foot apartment, be able to just stay home, stay sequestered like that for long — and very likely the brunt of the pandemic will be borne by them.

(And by the way they can’t get decent health care on a good day; I can’t imagine that during the 6th week of a pandemic they will be any better off when coming down with PanFlu because they didn’t get sick earlier.)

And the longer the infectious period is “spread out” from a quick, sudden severe 6 weeks to a more drawn out 3 months period, or whatever — I just see a race starting, between the well-off (or better informed) and the poor — or at least the worst-off of the poor, the serious underclass — who just can’t hold out that long.

It reminds me of that joke: Two hikers meet an aggressive bear in the woods. One hiker sits down and put on his running shoes. The other says “Are you crazy? You can’t outrun a bear!” The first hiker says “Don’t have to outrun him. I have to outrun YOU.”

I am just getting this feeling — I’m sorry that I can’t be more scientific about it, quoting economics studies and epidemiology studies — that with advance notice, and planning — a pandemic will go from being an equal opportunity killer to one that overwhelmingly attacks those who are at the bottom of the economic totem-pole.

So excuse me if I can’t get all excited about closing the schools, which I AGREE will slow the spread and I AGREE will save children’s lives; I just don’t necessarily agree it will save the lives of the children of the underclasses. The 30 to 40% population that needs to be infected before the wave is over has to come from somewhere — and I fear it will come overwhelmingly from the poor.

And please please please — do not misunderstand me. I am not saying it is in anyway wrong for anyone to try to protect their children, as of course I plan to do my own and every child I know and care about. I am thinking overall implications here. I fully expect to be flamed for writing this. But it has been rattling around in my brain for a long time, so I have to put it somewhere.

And no, before you ask me, I have no idea how to fix this problem. I am very depressed about it.

DennisCat 15:28

Average Concerned Mom – at 15:00 “herd immunity” - mostly from the poor.

The 30% or so many not come from the poor more than the rich. It might come from the urban areas more than the rural areas and regrettably from the young more than the adult.

lugon – at 15:39

No reason to be depressed if we’ve hit a wall and we know it. Ok, it’s your nose that hurts, so thank you, ACM! :-)

As things are now, all children (except those homeshooled) spend many hours each day in crowded conditions. Closing schools would place part of the children in less crowded conditions, leaving some in unchangedly crowded conditions. So it looks to me that we could locally have a two-speed pandemic. Maybe the local wave would behave like having two counties on top of each other, with reintroduction of infection … yet another reason why the rich should think about the poor.

It looks like, schools or no schools, we do need to focus on the poor (no money to SIP) and crowded (high density living). Look into how many, how they live, what would be the options. The options ACM has outlined and maybe some other options. Maybe we can think about how people live in other parts of the world to see if that brings us some ideas. This is a job that needs to be done. We at Flu Wiki can at least give it some thought.

Also, I’m not sure 30–40% cummulative infections in the poor will help the rich. I think each “network” (the superimposed “counties”, if they really behave as such) needs its own 30–40%. Herd immunity would work for each herd, no?

Homesteader – at 15:39

ACM,

your scenario: Still — shutting schools removes children from being vectors of infection and slows the spread. OK. All the kids with options — children of the rich, and of the well-prepared middle classes and well-prepared working classes — go home, presumably to houses and apartments with some food, some protective parents — some hope. In cities, the well - prepared, informed send their kids out to the suburbs, to Grandma in the country — the white collar workers get sent to home to telecommute — so they don’t have to go out and risk infecting their kids, and so on. The workers who have options figure something out, even if it is very difficult.

What are you basing that scenario on that the rest of us are missing? I hope you are right and we are wrong. Most of the rest of us are operating out of the scenario that essentially no one will be prepped except us and some survivalist types, so the majority of people will suddenly find themselves with no food, no heat, no medical care, no utilities, no resupply, no government coming to save the day, martial law, quarrantines imposed, etc. . etc. . etc. . .

lugon – at 15:50

As usual, we’re trying to push the “close schools” meme into the mainstream but we’re more advanced, looking at further problems.

Let us start again: How do we slow a pandemic down? We want to diminish the number of un-necessary respiratory contacts (URC), and do so with more energy in the younger population (our fast-spreaders). Specifically, we are seeking to avoid child-to-child respiratory contacts, right? If a child has, on average, 30 URC, we want to make that go down to, say, 5.

Can that be done? How?

DennisCat 15:53

All this depends heavily on the R0 of the virus. If it is high enough it will “rip through” society so quickly that it will not matter if the schools are closed or not. The majority of all people regardless of social status could be exposed before the first person in “the herd” shows symptoms.

If you read some of the 1918 stories, some people where fine getting on a bus but died by the time the trip was over. In Nepal now, (unknow illness perhaps malaria or Kalaazar) some reports are that people drop in the fields within the day.

Remember if you wait until the first child shows symptoms, he/she has been spreading it for about a week or perhaps two.

I see few options for the poor, except faith based systems that would be prepared before hand.

lugon – at 15:56

Homesteader – at 15:39

Agreed - I too think most people won’t SIP. Ok, maybe if we talk about closing schools more than zero people will SIP. My current guess is “not many”, but how can I know.

We need to look at each specific strategy on its own. I think closing schools will significantly reduce URC in many children, but likely not for all children.

I can’t see further. Yelp!

lugon – at 15:58

DennisC – at 15:53

When we talk about closing schools, we try to mean “closing schools early”. Proactively rather than reactively. Before there are (many) cases.

DennisCat 16:05

lugon – at 15:58

My worry is that the entire country children, adults and all will be exposed before we even know it has entered the country. I just don’t know what the “signal” would be for closure. After all we cannot even agree to when and what signals the mods will give fluwikians.

lugon – at 16:16

if we’ve thought about it, it will be “as fast as possible” - we can’t do more than that :-/

lugon – at 16:20

Anon_22 has just finished writing Forum.TheCaseForEarlySchoolClosure. Let’s think about this other “poor” ideas here in “Alternatives”.

anon_22 – at 16:20

DennisC – at 16:05

My worry is that the entire country children, adults and all will be exposed before we even know it has entered the country. I just don’t know what the “signal” would be for closure. After all we cannot even agree to when and what signals the mods will give fluwikians.

You are mixing 2 totally different issues. One is public health policy: someone who holds the appropriate job will have to make a decision. It won’t be a perfect one, but it will have to do, otherwise there is no way to implement policy. The other is personal responsibility: whether mods (or myself specifically) are willing to pick up the responsibility for what is essentially a personal judgement that each individual will have to make.

Average Concerned Mom – at 16:22

Homesteader at 15:39 Yes you are correct — I was making an assumption along the lines of — pandemic doesn’t hit for at least another year or two, giving society enough time to get more people on board with the idea of closing schools early and being prepared to stay at home, telecommute and so on — and that by getting that message, those with resources would be able to be better prepared to stay at home.

and, a big apology to Flu Wiki — I wrote that I expected to be flamed — but that really was not fair. In about 8 months on the Flu Wiki I can’t say that I have seen ANY flames. I just meant, I expected I could be in for some intense responses.

Homesteader – at 16:23

I posted this on another thread, but will repeat some of it here.

I’m a high school biology teacher. My wife is an ESL teacher. Our kids are middle school aged. They have been homeschooled in the past. They have been raised to be thinking, self-reliant kids. We don’t have Television and they wouldn’t know Nintendo if it bit them in the butt. They have computer skills and use our computer regularly. They will be taken out of school at the first verifiable sustained H2H2H2. . .anywhere in the world. I will continue to go to work until the first case arrives in North America, or possibly goes from one continent to another. But it will be sooner, not later. Then we will SIP to the best of our abilities with our goats, rabbits, preps, etc. . .behind the gate at the front of our longer than average driveway.

Average Concerned Mom – at 16:30

Awesome Homesteader! Good for you! Great for your kids.

My kids don’t watch TV either — that’s why I can’t get on the computer for very long.

nsthesia – at 17:19

ACM,

Unless we have enough time <how much IS enough?> for this possibility to sink in, I don’t have much hope that either the public in general, or TPTB will shut down the schools proactively.

I base that comment on my lifelong experience with hurricane preparation. The statistics are dismal, even for those living along the coastlines. Until recently, most shelters, (often consisting of public schools) did not even meet basic criteria for withstanding anything greater than a thunderstorm.

Individuals often do NOTHING until storm WARNINGS are announcing an imminent hit. Humans have lived with these disasters for eons. Yet usually nothing is done until a few hours before…and then it is inadequate.

Now to be faced with a scenario (panflu) that has not been witnessed in generations, and do I expect any different response? Not this skeptic. Especially when it comes to kids as being a highly vulnerable group. We give lots of lip service to our value of children, but we all know the statistics on the monies spent on kids (low funding for teachers, schools, lunches, healthcare). Heck, I’d have more confidence if the threat was viewed as being more likely to kill FOOTBALL PLAYERS! At least, THEN, someone would pay attention and it would be funded prior to the next football season!

Additionally, academia is one of those bureaucracies that takes forever to change…just like medicine. Look how long it has taken for the schools and hospitals/clinics to become computerized. In general, these systems are decades behind. And if they have started updating, these systems are often fragmented and archaic because it takes a committee to make a decision! It’s always management by consensus! THAT is why nothing gets done.

So, here we are, waiting for a panflu to exhibit it’s antigenic SHIFT, while we in academia and medicine are exhibiting our bureaucratic DRIFT! And being proud that we are at least DRIFTING! Uuuuuuuuuuggggggggggghhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!! <deep breath>

Ya know, it all boils down to the fact that it is a pain-stakingly slow situation to change any paradigm. There HAS to be an exception for crises! Any sociologists on this forum?

DennisCat 17:22

anon_22 – at 16:20 No I don’t think I am mixing two things. My point is that in the US there is no one person/group that could close all the schools. No one anywhere wants to take the responsibility for others. At the very best school closure might be able to be handled at the state level (but only for public state funded schools) but there is no national authority over schools. Due to political inertia, I doubt that all the schools would be closed early. Where in NM the funding locally is based on last year’s attendance so local schools may want to close early but it would be an individual school board choice. I don’t think that nationally the ten’s of thousands of schools would agree on a single signal to close all schools. The bottom line is that a lot of children will die before some schools would close- the same with the opening of the schools after a pandemic. Some will be fast but many will be slow in closing.

My approach is basically about like Homesteader – at 16:23 child (foreign exchange student) out at first large clusters and my wife (who teaches) out at first sign of any continued spread into the country. I too will close my gate. But we have looked at alternative “distance learning” methods through online colleges.

Homesteader – at 17:30

For as long as the power grid stays up we will be utilizing the online resources as well, like we did when homeschooling.

Average Concerned Mom – at 19:39

nsthesia at 17:19

Well, whether people would prepare or not is up in the air. My opinion is, many would prepare, if they believed a pandemic really was going to happen, and if they had a sense of urgency about it, from sources of authority they believed. (Not under current circumstances, obviously, being told “There is no pandemic now, and we don’t know if or when one will occur.”)

My reason for thinking this is just personal. I’ve never prepared for hurricanes or blizzards, figuring we could muddle through somehow. (And indeed we do). And if it was really bad, some other area could help us out. (before Katrina — and rmember I live in Maryland!) But as soon as I realized what a pandemic could do — I started prepping, and all my family members are now too — and none of them have ever really prepped (beyond some extra toilet paper, maybe) for natural disasters.

There’s something about “infectious disease” I think that can capture the imagination a bit more than a natural disaster. But that’s just my opinion.

In addition, there’s the idea that you don’t have to prep for any certain length of time (6 weeks, 8 weeks) you need to prep longer than 40% of the population. Once about 30 to 40% of the populatin is exposed to the virus, herd immunity will set in and the pandemic will stop. (Note: I have no idea if I am correct in saything that.)

If that idea ever sinks in to the general public, then I forsee a vast arms-race of prepping. Competition is something that most people respond to — especially competition over survival.

As for a diecion to close schools — once people understand that it will save lives, I can’t see any state, or district, wanting to be the one to NOT close schools on the early side.

I don’t have the optimism some have that we will actually *know* when a pandemic has started, but that’s an enirely other question. I think it may very well be unclear, or there may be several false alarms.

02 November 2006

anon_22 – at 03:00

DennisC,

It may be true that there is no one authority to close schools, but recommendations to do so coming out of the highest and most respected scientific circles like the IOM should carry a lot of weight (assuming that is what the IOM report will say, which hasn’t happened yet). Local officials ignore that to their peril, IMO>

Average Concerned Mom – at 15:40

any idea when the IOM report will come out?

DennisCat 16:13

Average Concerned Mom – at 19:39

 “don’t have to prep for any certain length of time …you need to prep longer than 40% of the population”

interesting view. I need to think about that. If true- I wonder if that extends to the Macro view: a country only needs to be better prepared than 40 % of the world’s population to come out ahead of other nations?????? Switzerland is looking good although they do have some nasty virus genes in some of their swine (S227N and G228S) that H5N1 could use to go pandemic.

crfullmoon – at 16:41

Governments are going to lose too many educated skilled brains and hands to run a modern economy post-pandemic at this rate of public unpreparedness /unprotectedness. They are gambling we can’t have a depopulating event?

Just keeping the workers going to work isn’t going to keep the infrastructure up; it is not absenteeism per se that is the opponent but death by a virulent virus, and all the cascade collateral effects and casualties of disruptions in imports, emergency care, mutual aid, ect.

No matter what we do, we aren’t going to be able to prevent all impacts/deaths -but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try and be proactive. Just have to get more information out now. People will be less trusting of what they are told once pandemic starts, I think.

03 November 2006

OnandAnonat 13:43

If the loss of talent is proportional to the overall population loss, some might think that acceptable. I do not agree, but that may be the source of the complacency.

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.AlternativesToFullScaleSchoolClosures
Page last modified on November 03, 2006, at 01:43 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / CA-Temp Approval of Pedi Flu Shots Containing Mercury

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: CA-Temp Approval of Pedi Flu Shots Containing Mercury

03 November 2006

Bird Guano – at 12:06

Under the heading of WTF ?

Why such concern about SEASONAL flu ?

Why THIS YEAR ?

Why such a concern to invoke a public law exemption ?

Curious


State waives limit on flu shot for kids TEMPORARY ORDER ALLOWS VACCINE CONTAINING MERCURY-LACED PRESERVATIVE By Yomi S. Wronge and Sandy Kleffman Mercury News and MediaNews http://tinyurl.com/y47tcr

California officials agreed Thursday to temporarily allow children under 3 to get flu shots containing a mercury-laced preservative, after doctors

 warned that shortages of the mercury-free version could threaten children’s health.

`We feel it is important to offer this short-term alternative to parents

 and health care providers in order to ensure young children are protected
 from the potentially severe effects of the flu,’‘ Kim Belshé, secretary 

of the California Health and Human Services Agency, said in a statement.

The exemption affects children under the age of 3 and will last six weeks, giving the manufacturer of the pediatric vaccine, Pennsylvania-based Sanofi Pasteur, time to ship about 500,000 doses of the vaccine without the preservative.

Although California has received only half its doses, at least three local providers — Kaiser Permanente, Stanford Hospital and the Santa Clara County health department — said they had no shortage

 of either adult or pediatric vaccine.

But while Palo Alto Medical Foundation has plenty of shots for children, it has used up all its adult vaccine and is waiting

 for more. The foundation canceled clinics that had been 

scheduled through Nov. 12 at all five of its locations.

`We used essentially everything we had — in fact we borrowed some from other local providers who had gotten their full shipments,’‘ said spokeswoman Jill Antonides.

Santa Clara County is in good shape, with enough of both kinds

 of vaccines for patients until more doses arrive.

The preservative, called thimerosal, has been used in vaccines since the 1930s to prevent bacterial and fungal contamination. It is about 50 percent mercury by weight.

In the 1990s, some parents and pediatricians became concerned that thimerosal in children’s vaccines might be connected to a nationwide surge in autism rates.

No scientific evidence links thimerosal to childhood neurological diseases, said Dr. Randy Bergen, a pediatric infectious-disease specialist at Kaiser Permanente.

He said that while he understands parents’ concerns, `I would have no reservations about giving this vaccine to my kids, and didn’t have reservations when they were that old.’‘

However, a state law banning thimerosal from vaccines given to pregnant women and children younger than 3 took effect this year, backed by groups that say mercury is linked to autism.

But the law can be waived when the pediatric vaccine is in short supply. That’s what four groups — the California branch of the American Academy of Pediatrics, the California Medical Association, the California Academy of Family Physicians and Kaiser Permanente — asked the state to do.

Young children and the elderly are among those most vulnerable to serious, even fatal complications from influenza. And children under 3 who are getting their first flu shots actually need two doses one

 month apart for full protection, Bergen said.

J.B. Handley, a former Lafayette resident and the father of an autistic son,

 said state officials should launch an informational campaign to make 

sure parents know the flu shot their child receives may contain thimerosal.

`The state of California has an obligation to inform parents of this

 backward step that is reintroducing a neurotoxin to young children,’‘
 Handley said.

Rick Rollens, father of an autistic child and a co-founder of the

 M.I.N.D. Institute at the University of California-Davis, supported 

the waiver so long as it is temporary.

`It took a lot of courage for the governor to sign this bill to begin with,’‘ Rollens said. `He had a tough decision to make on this issue, and I think he has taken the right step.’‘

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Stopping Cutting Bait and Start Fishing III

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Stopping Cutting Bait and Start Fishing III

23 October 2006

Bronco Bill – at 13:27

Continued from here


Grace RN – at 10:55

“The odds are that a much higher CFR is in the offing with this pandemic flu. We need to be able to explain that to our local governments, and they need to be proactivly planning to prepare themselves and their communities for any of several higher CFR scenarios. Any evidence we can gather to support this effort is very helpful, and can move town leaders from inaction to action all on its own.”

Can’t make that as a blanket statement; didn’t work in my town. DENIAL/FEAR are teamed with who’se got the $$$$ and lack of a definite ‘arrival date’.

2beans – at 17:39

Green Mom:

IF ALL ELSE FAILS, tell the clinic you’re a volunteer a couple of nights a week at a homeless shelter and you have to take the kids with you. I say this because last year when my employer detailed the staff to Katrina shelters my doc’s nurse didn’t want to give me the pneumovax (I’m 57yo) until I mentioned shelter duty. Then - no problem, step right this way. And if it works, might be nice to drop off some non-perishables at your local food bank.

NoFluingAroundat 18:52

NauticalMan – at 09:56

I am innocent, I tell ya :o)

24 October 2006

The Doctor – at 01:06

Many pandemic-aware people everywhere have been frustrated in their attempt to get their local public officials to come to a realistic appraisal of the risk their communities face from pandemic influenza. I have come to the conclusion that it is futile to persist in this effort. It they ask for your help that is another matter. By all means, do what you can to help but don’t hold your breath waiting for that call.

Public officials at all levels of government are not able to respond to a one-off event of the magnitude of a severe influenza pandemic. It is extremely costly to do it right on a community-wide level and is simply beyond their means. Even the cost of storage, maintenance, renewal and rotation of an adequate level of stocks is beyond their budgets.

The US Department of Health and Human Services Pandemic Influenza Plan published in November 2005 makes the prediction that the case fatality rate for the next severe pandemic will not exceed 2%. I looked very carefully at that number and the underlying assumptions and came to the conclusion that the only way they could have come up with this figure was by using the Top Down method. By this I mean they started with an estimate of the highest CFR the system could manage without an infrastructure collapse, stock market crash, and civil unrest and set that as the value to be used for the CFR. Then the gnomes within the US DHHS built the model around this value.

I am not saying that 2,000,000 American deaths are small potatoes. This many excess deaths will have a dramatic impact on us for years to come. The only comfort in this value is that it can be planned for and survived without the catastrophic consequence that derive from an estimate 5x greater which is what I expect.

The WHO is playing this issue in the same way for somewhat different reasons. The public estimate of worldwide deaths from an H5N1 pandemic is between 2 and 7 million. Internally, they predict upwards of 150 million. They also elected not to increase their Pandemic Alert Phase level to 4 even after H5N1 was passed H2H2H recently in Indonesia fulfilling their pre-established criteria. As I understand it, their reasoning is that most countries they serve simply don’t have the resources to cope with pandemic influenza of any severity. Given this fact, they decided that it was better to play down the risk so as not to cause civil unrest over the issue in the developing world. In their view, the developed nations can take care of themselves and are on their own. At this time the WHO has placed virtually all their resources into the effort to stamp out the pandemic strain when it first emerges by blanketing the outbreak area with Tamiflu. I am doubtful this strategy will succeed in the end but have not counted it out totally.

You see, the reality is governments and NGOs are powerless to affect the outcome of a really severe 1918 style pandemic. On the national level politically and in public health this is well known. In fact, they clearly say it from time to time. My guess is that these leaders want to be sure that they leave a clear public record that they warned us before the pandemic started that it could be really bad. I am sure they fear public reprisals after the pandemic is over as much as they want to avoid public panic ante-pandemic. It is not in the interest of any government to admit they are powerless to affect the outcome of any event, especially one with the potential to really make a mess of things for so long.

So, they all hope for a mild or at most moderate pandemic that will take its toll but remain manageable all the same. This is a risky bet but is what they have decided to do and what we are forced to live with. For this reason, we cannot rely on them for any help. It is why it is so important for the pandemic-aware to prepare to be self-sufficient if we want a good chance of surviving well through the coming long emergency.

Grattan Woodson, MD

Dark Horse – at 05:51

Well written, Dr. Woodson. There are a few government exceptions. Dr. M. Blake Caldwell, MD, MPH of the CDC gave a presentation to the Skidaway Community Institute in GA entitled “Planning for a Severe Influenza Pandemic: Implications for the Community.” It was very realistic.

LauraBat 06:22

And because the gov’t, WHO and others are downplaying the risk, the media isn’t covering PF very much. When it does, it spews back the same low figures that the CDC and others spoon feed them. Where are the good investigative journalists when you really need them? And I’m talking ones who have wide coverage, not just an article in some obscure science journal. If more people truly understood the risks, more would happen - more prepping, more pressure on gov’ts to plan more effectively, etc. And I swear if one more person says “they’ll have a vaccine for that” I’m going to slap them silly!

crfullmoon – at 06:50

“…Public officials at all levels of government are not able to respond to a one-off event of the magnitude of a severe influenza pandemic. It is extremely costly to do it right on a community-wide level and is simply beyond their means”…

That is why it was and is totally unethical to not tell the public what the threat really is so they will prepare to cope unaided.

Grassroots preparation, and bringing all the sectors to the table in public brainstorming meetings about the various contingencies to plan for -starting with everyone stocking up their households, or getting essential spare parts for their essential services (that are currently JIT imports), so that everyone knows, and most would try to be ready if they understood.

‘’‘My local authorities chose, (or they themselves “panicked”) at least 12 months ago; Can’t Tell The Public key bits of information, and have been misleading them into -temporarily- blissful ignorance. If they don’t ask, don’t tell.

If they ask, tell the public or media, “emergency planners’ve been meeting, making all-hazards plans, and, we’ll be having vaccine drills, and you can volunteer to help distribute vaccine” (Now they’ve been wanting them to sign up to be Medical Reserve Corps Volunteers, without knowing what they are geting into, and without telling them to stock up for a months or more at home, even though our state Commissioner used the 30-day figure months ago.)’‘’ (Cote could have told the state publically months ago too; he can afford a PSA.) Have we heard anything from our outgoing Mormon govenor - he doesn’t seem to care if we public are prepared at home. He speaks to the press; he could have urged grassroots pandemic preparedness, instead of an unworkable top-down attempt.

Public money pays their paychecks, and these “Health” Department people decide the public is too foolish to tell, because it “would be a bad outcome”.

The state should have said from the start, state funding relies on each municipality forming a (say it!) “Pandemic” Preparedness group, that has public meetings, and wants help from the public. At this point, every place could about use its own postal-code Flu Wiki; we’re supposed to be making contingency planning and figuring out how we’re to care for our people “homebound by illness or quarantine” without federal, stae or mutual assistance. Current TV PSA’s about “flu” and washing your hands are a year late, and wouldn’t have been enough information a year ago!

Supposedly, Massachusetts wants to be able to look back and say, we did everything we could - looks like there’s one exception already; they couldn’t be honest and transparent with the public and be communicators and educate them as to the situation so they had time to prepare, instead of only react, which will have a very “bad outcome”, if pandemic influenza mutates next week, next month, or the rest of this year, or next year- at the current rate of spoonfeeding the public info but trying to keep them too calm to take any actions the authorities have not told them to take. (Which currently is; stay home from work if you’re sick, wash your hands, and keep 3 days or 2 weeks of food at home…oh, and volunteer to help “in an emergency”!)

Green Mom – at 08:33

2b-Thanks! Actually, my son DOES help out at the Salvation Army kitchen/shelter as part of a KJHS service project and both kids visit the county Nursing home. I never would have thought to connect those.

31 October 2006

crfullmoon – at 09:24

What would happen if communities just started these on their own, places the authorities chose not to?

…”important, specific activities you can do now to prepare.”… http://pandemicflu.gov/plan/states/statelocalchecklist.html

First Task Listed Establish a Pandemic Preparedness Coordinating Committee that represents all relevant stakeholders in the jurisdiction (including governmental, public health, healthcare, emergency response, agriculture, education, business, communication, community based, and faith-based sectors, as well as private citizens) and that is accountable for articulating strategic priorities and overseeing the development and execution of the jurisdiction’s operational pandemic plan.”

LMWatBullRunat 20:34

“…it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such government, and to provide new guards for their future security……”

If local authorities are derelict in their duty then we, as citizens have the right to take such actions as we deem appropriate to protect ourselves, whether from influenza or anything else.

02 November 2006

bump – at 17:48

…”Such has been the patient sufferance … and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former systems…”?

Helen Branswell (CP) …A group of eminent influenza scientists gathered by the WHO last month concluded there is no reason to believe that the virus, which kills roughly 60 per cent of people who become infected, would become any milder if it evolves to become a pandemic strain.

Grace RN – at 18:05

crfullmoon at 0924

re: “First Task Listed Establish a Pandemic Preparedness Coordinating Committee that represents all relevant stakeholders in the jurisdiction (including governmental, public health, healthcare, emergency response, agriculture, education, business, communication, community based, and faith-based sectors, as well as private citizens) and that is accountable for articulating strategic priorities and overseeing the development and execution of the jurisdiction’s operational pandemic plan.”

Good plan, good intent. BUT:

Do you honestly think that forming a non-governmental grassroots-level group could do that? Who would go if it’s not sponsored/subsidized by TPTB in their town? What- no overtime for this meeting? Entities like police/fire/rescue will not commit to a grassroots level committee. They have to take their direction from the top which is your local governmental body.

Put a plan together without the backing/$$$ of your local governement and all you’ll have are well done suggestions with abolutely no enforcement powers.

Sorry for the cynacism. I went to our county’s business pandemic planning seminar today. It was quite well done, but I was concerned because there were no members of any township goverment/governing body attended that I could see. Guess they don’t count themselves as a business. One person from my township who I hoped could take back a strong message was there and her take-she’s ready, so…as for our township-it’ll be OK.

How will be OK? We have no serious planning done. No one thinks it needs to be done. Everyone in my area thinks the ‘county’ will take care of us.

NauticalManat 18:18

Up until 3AM this morning, could not put down Doc Woodson’s latest book. Have been reading, posting, prepping for over a year now, familiar with most of the details, food, water, meds, power. Follow the science related threads closely, thought I knew and understood what a Pandemic will mean. Reading the new book, where The Doctor has put it all together in one place and expanded greatly on his previous efforts, now I am really scared. PPF has risen a couple of points. This should be mandatory reading for all of us. BUY THIS BOOK! Thank you again Dr. Woodson. Can not imagine how much of your time and energy has gone into this. Hope your new efforts to persuade some of your colleagues to prescribe meds before IT happens bears fruit, have given up myself on that. Big push lately to finish my preparations. Those of you who are procrastinators take note.

crfullmoon – at 18:46

“Who would go if it’s not sponsored/subsidized by TPTB in their town? What- no overtime for this meeting? Entities like police/fire/rescue will not commit to a grassroots level committee”

First responders, if they know somewhat what is going on, have concerns for their and their families’ safety. Some admit they can see the “plans” will be burnt-Katrina-world-toast in a fortnight, (“or less”), though they may never say so at work.

Some may not show up, or, may hold down the fort where they live, which may not be the municipality they worked in.

They might be interested in off-the-record, neighborhood, or municipality brainstorming. (We aren’t saying it’ll just be so bad that there’s nothing anyone can do)

Or the townsfolk with children might be interested to hear some rational actions to start now.

Even if it’s on an issue-by-issue conversation basis like the Wiki sometimes focusses on. Word-of-mouth; through friends in organizations. What about before or after meetings?

This is life-or-death; people will do things about survival for free; here we are at the Wiki.

Even if it was just getting people to look at what the Flu Wiki has already done wondering about food, water, electricity, insulin, first aid kits, invasion by gangs, what will happen to unattended minors, how will the dead be id’ and buried?, local currency ideas,

even if it was just getting the information to the public that the state and locals were supposed to have formed a diverse committee to address pandemic year problems together and have not done so

it might motivate some individuals to look for their own sources of warning, and, act to prep their own households

-more than are at the dropping-baby-shoes pace state bureaucracies have chosen, (not wanting to be the bearers of unprecedented-in-our-lifetimes-bad news perhaps) -leaving all their other official planning futile, since a blindsidded public will have many medical, nutritional, mental, financial, lack of confidence in authority, and, recovery problems as is now.

We need “a Pandemic Preparedness Coordinating Committee that represents all relevant stakeholders in the jurisdiction (including governmental, public health, healthcare, emergency response, agriculture, education, business, communication, community based, and faith-based sectors, as well as private citizens) and that is accountable for articulating strategic priorities and overseeing the development and execution of the jurisdiction’s operational pandemic plan.” and the current and future generations deserve one.

Every municipality, or failing that, an organization, or neighborhood, or apartment block, needs a “Flu Wiki” of information to become more resiliant, even if we have to do it unofficially, acting as private citizens only.

it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such government, and to provide new guards for their future security

Grace RN – at 19:09

So far it’s been my experience that people say if there was something to worry about the government-local-would be doing something about it. And blow off any other action plan. When asked, the mayor says something is being done. All doublespeak. Their idea of planning is not what I, the CDC/DHHS thinks is effective [as per their sites]. I’ve been at this for a year now.

So.. I will soon start hosting small goups of my neighbors in my home Sundays nights-coffee, cake and a pandemic educational presentation with encouragement to attending the local BOH meetings (they have to be open to the public). Now if the virus can just wait a few years so we can get our act together…

AND I’m starting a paper trail…cya…

Grace RN – at 19:10

crfullmoon

FYI-you’re preaching to the choir… :)

Al – at 19:31

NM, greetings there, hope all is\well, I’ve been non-stop at work and haven’t checked in lately. Which one of The Doctor’s books is the latest one and which one would you recommend I order?

Pixie – at 20:12

LMWatBullRun – at 20:34:

“…it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such government, and to provide new guards for their future security……”

Excellent, LMWatBullRun. I’m goona use that, oh yes I am. PowerPoint slide coming up.

Crfullmoon:

The way I see it, the local officials can either run serious community pandemic preparation meetings, or they can be invited to attend the community pandemic preparation meetings.

Right now it’s their choice. Which looks better in the newspapers?

GraceRN is right - it’s a whole lot easier (and more efficient) if the local leaders decide on openness, communication, community involvement, and preparation. If the community must start down it’s own pandemic preparation path without them, however, TPTB will be summoned to those meetings too, in front of the press. At that point they’ll be held just as accountable, and just as publicly, but they will have lost the control that they could have exercised if they had proceeded under their own momentum.

It’s a win/win for local authorities to get on board and begin engagement in the pandemic planning process now, with their communities. There’s a lot of downside involved in TPTB waiting till later, the most prominent issues being the risk of loss of credibility and trust, which they may need very badly later.

NauticalManat 20:53

Al @ 19:31

Greetings to you too Al. Hope all is well Downeast.

  His latest book is the “Bird Flu Manual”, about $15 from Amazon.com..  Well worth the money just for the addditional info regarding medications and home care.  Quite a bit of new info in that regard, now have to find some additional meds, as usual without the help of our doctor.  Reading this I understand why The Doctor has recommended forming Pandemic Survival Groups, but still can not get anyone in my neighborhood to even listen to me, very discouraging.   That worries me due to the fact that those without will be looking for those with.  Guess I will have to go it alone and provide a little to others who I know will never prepare until too late and protect our preps and ourselves with whatever means needed, sad to say.

03 November 2006

Olymom – at 01:10

Please keep talking to your neighbors. Here’s a copy of my YOYO letter. I walked it over to our Fire department and said “Ill copy and deliver it if you’ll agree to sponsor it” — no skin off their noses, so they said yes. I walked it over to our local grocery store (local owner) and he surprised me by knowing alot about pan flu and he said I could put out the flyers and he’d throw in a $100 gift certificate for free gas as a drawing prize. Wow. People are picking up the flyer and laughing when they read it — and then walking off with it, so I take that as a good sign.

Can you handle a YOYO?

Nah, not the doohickey on a string. YOYO stands for “You’re On Your Own.” Public health authorities are concerned that this might be a bad flu season. Whether it’s pandemic flu, earthquake or a bad winter storm, there are times when services and supplies are disrupted. Let’s see how ready you are to handle a YOYO event. Test yourself:

___ I have at least two weeks supplies of food and water. (TWO WEEKS?? Yeah. Sobering, isn’t it? Think about it though. Katrina victims had a horrible storm and then there were major obstacles to getting supplies delivered. If we did have a flu pandemic, wouldn’t you rather be home with your soup cans than in line behind someone sneezing?)

___ I have the medicines I’ll need (prescriptions, ibuprofen, first aid kit).

___ I have a way to keep warm if the power is out. (Wood stove and firewood or at least a sleeping bag and warm cap).

___I have a flashlight, extra batteries and a camp stove and fuel. I also have matches and a manual can opener.

___ I have specific supplies for my household, such as pet food and a pet carrier for Barkey the dog and Hairball the cat.

FOR ADULTS ONLY

 (If you’re under 21, close your eyes when you read this):

___ I won’t be on the roads to fetch booze, tobacco, chocolate or birth control because I’ve got that figured out. I’ll plan so I don’t add a “cold turkey” experience to an emergency.

Brought to you by the good people at the Griffin Fire Department and Island Market who want you to stay safe and sassy.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Detach here and place in the collection box at Island Market.

OK, I get the picture. I will do what it takes to get my family ready to handle a YOYO event. Please put my name in for the Island Market prize! Name_____________________________ Phone #_______________

Pixie – at 07:27

Great job at risk communication, Olymom! Please let us know how it goes - how many entries you get for your drawing (what a clever way to measure!), and any other responses.

crfullmoon – at 07:57

Grace RN – at 19:10 I was preaching to the lurkers, if anyone takes Flu Wiki threads and mails or emails them to state or local officials (or journalists, if we have any). Your paper trail, my Flu Wiki trail, yup…

people say if there was something to worry about the government-local-would be doing something about it Guess it is lucky I can say, well, I tried to get the person in charge to start telling you a year ago, and various officials since (who go to the few “emergency/all-hazard” meetings, where they “have plans” even for the schools) and they’ve said, and say, to my face, We can’t tell the public that because they’ll “panic” -can’t have that

and for some, that does sound like something they can imagine a politician or bureaucrat or Jobsworth doing, even a health official, even if people and their children will suffer and die unprepared because they were unwarned.

We had no idea the levees would fail -sure- when scientists had written it all up 3 years before Katrina…Sure and the public will be able to find out the WHO’s Ten Things and the pandemicflu.gov websites have been up for over a year, we had our state pandemic summit last Feb, and, we’re just going through an election cycle without one public question asked candidates about pandemic preparedness.

“Consent of the governed” is going to just keep getting harder to find, at this rate.

Olymom – at 01:10 I am amazed the fd went along, and, that a business offered a prize! Wouldn’t matter if people felt comfortable putting their name in, as long as they read and prepared. Wonder if the locals here would sponsor such a thing, (though I might like to add the Flu Wiki and federal website on there somewhere quietly…maybe between the For Adults only and the Brought to You By…) good for you for being fun and sassy!

Pixie – at 20:12, Exactly. :-)

Goju – at 09:09

OK… at my Town meeting it was suggested that I form a committee for the towns pandemic planning.

I am totally new to this and began by setting up meetings with certain people -

Church pastor - He listened closely, asked several good questions and politely ended the meeting - 15 minutes.

Local Public Health Officer - Lunch meeting - almost 2 hrs - he doesnt think there will be a pandemic… if there is doesnt think it will be bad… if there is bad doesnt think JIT will collapse - he just doesnt see the need to prep for more than a couple of weeks.

Food Market, Hardware store managers - they were open to attending a meeting concerning surge capacity.

Local talk radio - said they were interested in the story - never heard back

Local TV news - they actually came to my home and did a prep story - should air this month 11pm news - they were having trouble getting a med pref (webster i think) for an interview… they felt they needed a “higher” authority.

School board - i have sent email after email with materials and news items from FW… no response.

OK now… any advice? I haven’t moved past this point. I am not sure what to do or who else to bring in. Do i focus on helping the Town prep their own (police fire etc.), do i focus on individual family prep only - raise awareness? There is no funding…

Any thoughts?

Gary Near Death Valley – at 10:05

IT is sad but at some point in this, we need to look after ourselves and our loved ones. I gave up on helping the valley here on this a long time ago, because 1. most people did not care 2. the local people in power did not want the information 3. did not have the funding to do anything about anything ,,,,,,,,,so what I did was shift gears and try to get friends and family more concerned with it. By reading tidbits alittle at a time, and now with the latest news from WHO about the bug most likely not getting less in CFR and the new spreading very fast flu in China, some are beginning to pay attention more and more. With each small victory on this front, makes my effort worth while. And yes when I walk around the local casinos and stores,,,,,like you I see dead people walking,,,,,and that is sad but reality.

crfullmoon – at 10:25

Show people (under fed/state tab) we are supposed to have been having a “Pandemic Preparedness Coordinating Committee”, because the federal and state governments have given notice they cannot help and it is local responsibility to care for people homebound by illness or quarantines and disruptions are expected during a pandemic influenza year.

Which are the religious committees who currently help members with medical problems, meal delivery, or organizing meals after funerals, memorial services, ect? Would those people benefit from a talk with you? (Maybe having a group together, so they know others have also heard the news?)

Would printed handouts for faith communities to have out at coffee help, maybe the Pandemic Awareness cards, and some copies of the checklist for faith communities from the federal government? (I still also like the “Last time we were closer to a pandemic we were in a pandemic” FAQ -is that on the singtome… site)

Does the local health officer expect if pandemic did occur churches would be stepping in -are they mentioned in plan assumptions, but not spoken with yet?

(I get the impression local Red Cross is between a rock and a hard place, much like the hospitals. Don’t ask, don’t tell? Official plans people silently feel in their hearts are not up to an actual pandemic -if they’ve actually had any mention passed down to them?)

Food market and hardware store managers, can they get info out so their employees know and prep at home, and also advertise that HHS Leavitt, the pres, who ever will click in your area -when was your state’s summit? - pull some quotes about what they said to have to prepare -

the “can you handle a YOYO?” memo was funny (can’t find the thread - need to get offline a while ago) and could perhaps run in a local paper as an ad, said what sort of things to have.

Can state lawmakers decide to remind the public about pandemic preparedness and have another tax-free (if you have a sales tax) weekend for Pandemic emergency food, OTC meds, stockpiling, or special list of safety items at hardware stores? Do some of the math for them what a couple of weeks for a person eating at home is?

Skip the school board, and find the emails for all the PTOs and show them the thread/ IOM slides/graphs about School Closures. Add the fed http://pandemicflu.gov/plan/individual/index.htmllink.

The recent Helen Branswell article about high death rate from the WHO must count for something.

What about contacting the local Boy and Girl Scout groups, with the links, and ask if families are aware and preparing for pandemic influenza?

Please approach the local funeral homes and ask if they’ve seen the federal and WHO pandemic websites that have been up for over a year, and if the local authorities have been including them in their mass fatailty plans… and get them looking at the Flu Wiki and the mass fatality plans threads. (Because the local plans are really only workable for limited events with outside help).

Why haven’t they heard about it if it was going to happen? Because they say it is more important to prevent panic now than prepare, but once pandemic starts it is too late to prepare against it, and scientists say we’ve already had our months of warning.

Good luck… I’ve got to try, try, again… I do not like learning how to do this, but it’s horrible to know and say nothing.

crfullmoon – at 10:28

YOYO memois right above! - don’t know whether I’m coming or going this morning -woke up too early- I do think getting neighborhoods at least aware may help, but we are not going to be ok surrounded by unprepared municipalities.

:-(

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Page last modified on November 03, 2006, at 10:28 AM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / A Good Book

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: A Good Book

18 September 2006

anonymous – at 00:54

…seems to be”Beat the Flu: How to stay healthy through the coming bird flu pandemic”, by AA Avlicino.(614.518AVL in my library!!)

 It mentions the Nanomask and says it hasn’t been tested by NIOSH(the US National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health) at the time of print(that being sometime in 2006) ,”but there is some believable science behind it that suggests their claim to filter out 0.027 micron is to be taken legitimately.”

 It says the problem with all the N/R/P 95/99/100 masks…apart from the sealing…is the grille opening is only 0.3 micron, and that H5N1 virii is approximately 0.1 micron. Yes, it does say that a lot of the time a virus will be piggy backed on a larger particle of some sort(water/dust), but that some virii will be alone and go straight through the filter.

 For those that don’t know: millimetre means thousandth of a metre; micro metre means millionth of a meter and nanometre means billionth of a metre. So the virii of H5N1 are approximately 100 nanometres in size. I don’t know if this is length or with, just trying to help.

 Haven’t checked the whole site yet, simply looked it up?(If the seal is not good then it will be just as useless as the other masks, for instance!!)

 It’s the Nanomask by emergency Filtration technology.

 The book also say’s that you shouldn’t eat sushi..damn!
Jefiner – at 01:16

I seem to remember hearing some bad buzz about the nano mask . . . anyone help me here?

Sushi? Only if it’s California roll.

anonymous – at 01:46
 Well, really they say that no filter short of a NASA spacesuit is going to protect you 100 percent…or a “Biohazard labsuit: level 4 and up”.

 We need some sort of answer to stop a possible 1918!

 From what i have read in this book, the other ones are useless- but I’ll concede that this one is useless aswell if it isn’t able to seal correctly to the face, for example.
anonymous – at 03:49
 …from said book(pg32):

 “There are countless ways to be infected with an influenza A virus. Touch something, anything at all, that has been in contact with an infected individual. Then rub the moist corners of your eyes, nose or mouth- an involuntary reaction each of us does dozens of times a day. You’re infected. It is not obligatory to inhale the airborne particles from an infected person sneezing or coughing on you. Think of that next time you use a public toilet, pick up something from the pavement, or are even handed coins as change. Let’s not even mention visiting bars and restaurants.
   On a recent trip to Rome, I observed the barista at a trendy Via Veneto coffee house “washing” the cups. His process was to take the dirty cups , drop them into the sink of standing, slimy, soapy water just enough to rinse out whatever coffee was left in them, and then put them on a drip tray to dry. I ordered several espressos just to carefully examine the cups, certainly not to put them anywhere near my lips. As I thought, I found lipstick on most of them, several different colours on some. Now if the lipstick is still there, what makes you think that the viruses carried by that individual coffee-lover would not be? Soapy water standing until it is lukewarm is not bleach. It does not disinfect anything on contact.”

 Food for thought.

 We need some kind of slogan to get the basic message across to use your head. I think a lot of us think the effort is perhaps futile(including me to certain degrees-especially when we are confronted with information that makes it seem just that little bit more impossible!). But we must try…each person who is MORE CAREFUL is another person who will not add to the pandemic chaos.

 How about: “Stop,think and plan your day. Make the Bird Flu find another way!” ??

 It works for me ;}
anonymous – at 03:51
 Oh ye: where’s the dirt on the Nanomask?

 Believe me- I DO want to know!!
Calandiel – at 07:18

At least one company marketed the NanoMask as being NIOSH approved, while this was not the case:

www.cdc.gov

I contacted the author of the CDC alert published on their website to gain more information. Here is the email I sent in early August:

To: Ahlers, Heinz W. (CDC/NIOSH/NPPTL) Subject: NanoMask / NanoGuard

Hello Mr. Ahlers -

I read your notice “NIOSH Respirator Users’ Notice: Misleading Representation of a Particulate Respirator” regarding the Nano Guard respirator posted on the CDC website. (note attached file: <Nanoguard 062906> )

Are you able to determine if the NanoGuard mask is the same item as the NanoMask being marketed by Emergency Filtration Products and distributed by 2H Distributors (amongst others)? Website: Emergency Filtration

Bird Flu Protection Test results are also attached above as a pdf document < Bird_Flu_Testing.pdf >

Additionally, NanoMasks Ltd markets the NanoMask and documents the following test results on their website: Nanomask The NanoMask website page is also attached above: <NanoMask Website.htm> - Can NIOSH verify that the test results as posted on the NanoMasks Ltd website are verifiable, valid and demostrate efficacy in the reduced transmission of airborne viral particles? - Does NIOSH recognize Nelson Laboratories as an approved and independent laboratory?

These questions arise due to my concern that although N95/N100/R95/R100/P95/P100 NIOSH approved respirators effectively filter particles of .3 microns or larger, the influenza viruses range from .02 to .25 Microns, which would render the NIOSH N/R/P approved masks largely ineffective in the prevention of virus transmission: Britannica

There are many Flu Blog sites attempting to address this question. Any information or direction you can provide regarding:

  *  the efficacy of N95/N100/R95/R100/P95/P100 NIOSH approved respirators against airborne viral particles of .02 - .25 microns 
  -or-

will greatly help navigation through these muddy waters.

Dr. Ahlers reply:

“Thank you for your questions. I will try to answer them where I can.

1) Are you able to determine if the NanoGuard mask is the same item as the NanoMask being marketed by Emergency Filtration Products and distributed by 2H Distributors (amongst others)? The 2HD Nanoguard mask was a different product from the EFP NanoMask

2) NIOSH will only test a mask when a manufacturer requests a NIOSH approval of that mask. EFP has not requested an approval for the NanoMask.

3) Since NIOSH has not performed tests on this mask we cannot comment on the test results. This test is apparently using the infectious dose titer which is not typically used as a measure of filtration efficiency

4) NIOSH test filter penetration using a particle challenge at the generally accepted most penetrating particle size. The test parameters are described in 42 CFR 84.181. For the Sodium chloride challenge a test aerosol having a count median diameter of 0.075 micrometer is used. This is equivalent to a mass median aerodynamic diameter of 0.300 micrometers. The count median is the size where 50% of the particles are above and 50% of the particles are below by number. The mass median aerodynamic diameter is the size where 1/2 of the weight of the challenge is above and 1/2 the weight of the challenge is below. Since smaller particles are lighter the count median is smaller than the mass median. Further, masks tend to be more efficient on both smaller and on larger particle diameters. On the smaller particles there is increased capture due to diffusion and electrostatic capture. On larger particles there is increased capture due to impaction.

5). NIOSH does not have q mechanism at this time for recognizing any outside testing laboratories as an “approved and independent laboratory”

The CDC recommendations for avian influenza precautions when visiting a known infected area may be found at the following link:

 Questions & Answers at pandemicflu.gov

I hope this answers your questions. If you would like more information I will try to provide it, or you may call me at 412 386 5132″

I wasn’t satisfied with the response regarding the micron size of the particle capture for the N-R-P masks. Was this babblespeak? Your opinions count here….

anonymous – at 07:50
 Very cool work Calandiel. I understand that this mask is not same mask as advertised by Emergency Filtration Technology.

 I also understand that the nanomask that I mentioned to begin with(by EFT) is NOT approved by NIOSH.

 You have actually scared me into thinking that there is not one commercially available mask on the planet that can deal

with this virus.

 On the website..if you type Nanomask into Google you will see one by EmergencyFiltrationTechnology…it talks of filtering 

out 0.027 Micron sizes particles.

 The book I was reading said that they(the virii) are about 0.1 Micron’s, but the website said they vary from ~0.08 Micron to just over about 

0.1 ie confirming this approximation of 0.1 Micron.

 You have stated that they vary from 0.02 to 0.25 Micron.

 On the smaller side of this scale, then the virus will slip through even the NanoMask even if it was confirmend to 

filter out 0.027 Micron Virus.

 NOW I am scared!!

 PLEASE keep posting! Very Important! Thankyou.

 At the moment things look very grim!
Blue – at 10:02
 Hard to read. Too Hard!

 Seems to be something about the respirator’s not being effective for viruses!?

 New thread needed!
LauraBat 10:25

Please check the forum index - there are lots of threads on masks, including the nano.

Bertha’sKittyBoutique – at 11:30

Sushi?

Sushi!

Please, why did the book say not to eat sushi?

I’m on my way out the door to meet the girls at our favorite sushi bar. <sigh>

Blue – at 11:33
 Ta…found one when I typed in masks to start my own thread …and it took me to an old closed one………V. Intersesting…I’m tired now and going to bed, but when I wake up!?

 The one thing I really didn’t like tho. is talk of a fake approval by NIOSH(or whoever it’s supposed to be)!! =“Just a little bit scary!”
Blue – at 11:39
 Oh yeh: the Sushi part was in a  section of the bookcalled”Don’t eat H5N1”. It said something like: there is only one rule regarding Sushi/Sashimi/Raw Fish→Don’t eat it.

 I was cut..I love that stuff!
Bertha’sKittyBoutique – at 12:57

Blue at 11:39

Does it mean to cease eating sushi ASAP or at some point in the future as H5N1 gains momentum?

Gosh, I eat sush several times a week. Must I quit THIS WEEK?

I’d appreciate your opinion. And, thanks!

Bertha’sKittyBoutique – at 13:43

Eating sushi — gives an added dimension to asking a blessing before meals.

Blue – at 23:19

No_ it just siad it as a complete aside…I don’t even know if that’s a word but it just said it for the sake of it…it appeared totally unrelated bird flu…I didn’t read the whole chapter but it was in list of thing related to cooking and supposedly bird flu…I couldn’t find where it was related to bird flu…so I must admit I was dissapointed with that certain chapter, and read another.!!

 It said that bird flu was seen coming toward a pandemic when the CFR dropped. This was explained as so it could infect more people and eventually be a bigger killer. I found this interesting  and that is why I read this book to start with. That was in the first chapter about the history.
Bertha’sKittyBoutique – at 23:27

Thanks for your response, Blue. Doesn’t sound like enough information to force me to abandon my sushi habit just yet.

Blue – at 23:34
 No. I like sushi too. There was no information on it- it just plainly it in a list.
blackbird – at 23:53

An oceanographer of my acquaintence once said knowing what he does about what’s in raw fish and seafood, he would NEVER eat sushi.

Maybe that’s what the book was getting at.

I still eat it, tho. Love it.

Bertha’sKittyBoutique – at 23:59

Blackbird, I’ve heard people say not to eat sushi, too, but no one will explain the reason/s. And today we’re led to believe fish harbor H5N1. Really, is this true or an edumacated guess?

19 September 2006

blackbird – at 00:01

BKB - I don’t know about H5N1. The ocean’gr’phr’s comment was years ago, about seafood in general.

Bertha’sKittyBoutique – at 00:04

Thanks, Blackbird. I understand that you’re just relating a passage from the text. It’s just that it is frustrating to consider a lifestyle change for no apparent reason. KWIM?

Blue – at 04:38

No/No/No The book, about H5N1 said not to eat sushi for no other reason than to say “not to eat sushi”. The author just took the opportunity to tell everybody not to eat sushi!

 Strange, I thought, but true.

 AND he gave no reason for it.

 Just don’t do it, apparently.
zeta – at 19:26

It sounds an awful lot like “Don’t eat butter”, “Don’t eat eggs”, and “Don’t drink.” Everything that they tell you is bad for you this week they’ll tell you is good for you next week. Sometimes I think the experts are just control freaks playing manipulative headgames with the masses.

22 September 2006

A. A. Avlicino – at 09:04

Hello, I was given a heads-up that several of you were discussing my book, and I thought I’d pop in and answer any questions you might have. When it comes to sushi/sashimi/crudo, etc., the rationale behind my advising anyone to not eat it is as follows.

Bird faeces contain extremely high concentrations of H5N1 that can stay active for weeks. When the excrement is dropped in fresh water and to a lesser degree in salt water, the live virus can easily infect fish in that body of water via contact or ingestion. The only way to appropriately inactivate H5N1 present in any fish/seafood product is by cooking it until it is thoroughly opaque which usually translates to an inner temperature of 160F/71C.

In my latest blog entry at Bird Flu: What We Need To Know I deal with a potentially hazardous pond right beside my home. H5N1 has been identified less than 100 miles away in Montana ducks.

>>>

There’s something about ducks. They fly. And they don’t respect the U.S./Canada border. All that means that Mr. and Mrs. Duck that are bobbing around on the pond 50 yards from my kitchen door are likely to be carriers, and even if they’re not, it’s a pretty good bet that Huey, Dewey or Louie are.

That pond is right beside my campfire site… the big round rocks that line the firepit were fished out from the sides of that very pond. With my bare hands. In water containing untold fecal matter from ducks that very likely are carrying H5N1.

First things first. There is no such thing as “low path” H5N1. The virus is not a speeding juggernaut with a specified linear trajectory. There is no calculus in virology. There are countless clades, or sub-strains of H5N1 evolving and developing along their own paths and at their own pace. Any one of these clades can develop “humanized” characteristics by evolving and swapping genes with other viruses inside a human anytime anywhere. Like the time when I splashed the sweat from my face with that famous pondwater.

>>>

However, my ex is a sushi maniac and refuses to heed my advice about gorging on raw fish. All I can tell you is that I don’t plan on joining her for dinner anytime soon.

27 September 2006

Blue – at 15:23
 Hi Mr. Avlicino.

 CRIKEY.

 I will go and read this other book at the library and ask if you can confirm or deny something or rather about the nature of this BF.(Yes, I have a question!)

 Back soon.(possibly 12–18 hours..it’s 3:16 in the morning over here).

 Awesome. (The POWER!)
Blue – at 15:24
 Hey_Put up a post Mr. Avlacino!!
Blue – at 15:27
 Mr. Avilicino,

  Do you perhaps know anything about what these Pandemics looked like in the beginning.

  (I might go and read your book some more.)

  By the way, this is what my other question will eventually relate to, of course.

19 October 2006

A. A. Avlicino – at 22:59

Hello, Blue.

Sorry for the delay in replying. Can you be more specific about “the beginning” of the Pandemics?

Thanks!

20 October 2006

Blue – at 12:26
 Yeh, I was going to ask two questions regarding the beginning of the pandemic in 1918 hoping that you may know bit more than the resrt of us.

 One Question has already been answered in that I was curious and wanted confirmation that there seemed to be no huge losses of birds in 1918(My question from another book to you, which I never got around to quoting for you). It seems there wasn’t and so what we are dealing with now is just so different. That’s been answered, but where the answer gets us I don’t know. I don’t know if this is significant or not, its just general research on the beast that approaches-Avian Influena.

 The other question is: “How was it first reported in the papers that something bad is going to happen?”.

 That is to say, how do you perceive that the first hint of imminent international disaster was communicated to the people of the time? Was there a Headline in the paper one day saying that we’re all toast? Was there no clue until it was upon them(the World)? Did word of mouth save the ones who didn’t die?

 Just the coming of the disaster and the expectations of the people interest me. 

 Did people of the day know anything about pandemics being cyclical events of nature even?

 This is the line of my thinking. How did all of these people die?
Blue – at 12:34
 Also, in your book you didn’t exactly recommend the Nanomask- you just said that it may be promising new technology.

 What is your opinion on appropriate mask/respirators now, as the rest of the forum is especially interested in this question compared to the start of a pandemic. It is a confusing topic.

 Tho, I think they would be interested in anything you had to say on either of the two topics..and on this forum-WOW! The first question is research and almost complete curiosity, where as the second is actually “Life Saving” information.

 Thankyou.
Bubba – at 12:38

In the beginning God created Fire, so we would not have to eat Sushi!

Blue – at 12:47
 Yeh, well I think that the person talking about his diving mate saying that he would never eat sushi knowing what was in raw fish, was probably referring to Sea Lice.

 Maybe not, but we have always been told that Sushi is not worth eating- I just don’t know why. I’m only guessing, Sea Lice. But, I dunno.

31 October 2006

A. A. Avlicino – at 04:46

We always have to be careful when applying current standards of medicine and technology to historical events. Although it is true that large-scale bird kills were not reported in 1918, that is not to say that they were not occurring. The North American continent of 1918 was much emptier than it is today and most of the population was huddled on the coastal northeast, thus millions of birds could have been falling from the skies in the plains and West without anyone properly reporting it to the authorities who even then might not have made any connection between the two events.

There is also the hypothesis that the bird stage of this virus was fairly shortlived and it gained humanized characteristics after a rather brief avian “incubation”. We may never know the actual reasons. Today’s news that a new strain of H5N1, named “Fujian-like” after the Chinese province where it was first detected, sidesteps any current vaccine as it may have developed under challenge by the widespread poultry vaccines of the past year, provides a valuable insight into the extreme evolutionary velocity of these viruses.

Senior UN System Coordinator for Avian and Human Influenza David Nabarro today stated: “Frankly, I don’t know how we’re going to know when pandemic flu gets close. We’re just going to get hit by it.” Just as a random H5N1 clade could develop today into a humanized form, it could just as likely have occurred two years ago or two years from now. There seems to be no fixed, predictable time schedule. “You pays you money an’ you takes you chances.”

As for when the first media reports occurred, the 1918 strain first hit the Army barracks in Kansas in early spring and spread widely, but given that the headlines were monopolized by the war coming to its climax, not much notice was given in the media at the time. It is conceivable that it was not necessarily identified as a true pandemic until 8 million Spaniards died in May. By that time it had been characterized as a “Spanish Flu” and the massive media reports began. We must also remember that the media of nearly a century ago was quite different from today. Most rural Americans of that time rarely saw a newspaper, let alone read one. And they were a bit busy with their ploughing to care much about news. Regardless we must also recognize that the pandemic was couched in the misconceptions of the time and the accurate and timely flow of information that we take for granted these days was unconceivable 88 years ago. Although the Black Death was a well-known historical fact, I doubt that any but the most applied scholars drew any pandemic parallels until late into the fall/winter of 1918.

I can’t really in good conscience recommend any mask, even one with as superfine a mesh as Nanomask. Place any mask on your face and fit it as snugly as you can. Then make a few grimaces. You’ll see that the mask will lift from your skin by as much as a full centimeter. So much for the micron filters… Maybe if someone can develop a mask that can be “glued” onto the skin, (perhaps with a surgical liquid adhesive) then we might have the first truly effective protection. Until then, it’s better than nothing but not that much better.

Anisakiasis is the main parasitic disease contracted from infected raw seafood, but the concern with regards to H5N1 is that many fish are coprophagic (eaters of feces) and all we need to do is follow the H5N1-loaded excrement of a duck or seagull into the water and then into a fish in order to convince ourselves to char our seafood until it’s crispy.

I apologize once again for the delay in my replies, but I hope that I have been able to be of assistance.

LauraBat 06:08

Thank you for your comments. Your posting for yesterday gels with how most of the rest of us feel here on the wiki - a vaccine is a pipe dream. IF they come up with one, it is unlikely to help all but a few perhaps at the tail end of a prolonged pandemic. And that’s IF the strain remains constant, which is unlikely adn the latest news supports this. Telling people there will be a vaccine will cost lives. Most don’t understand the impossibility of it all.

Many of us have been trying all different angles to get 1) The Power That Be to act on things that WILL save lives - stockpile medicines and equipment, devise plans for treatment centers, mainiting vital services (power, water, food), etc. 2) Get others to prepare as individuals/families. With a few exceptions, many of our efforts have fallen on deaf ears. Any suggestions that you or others on your blog have tried with success?

Again, thanks!

01 November 2006

Blue – at 10:38
 WOW_

 Good to know that we won’t have a vaccine?? Still good to know.

 Bit of a history lesson aswell, Thanx Mr. Avlicino.

03 November 2006

A. A. Avlicino – at 08:07

The main problem with the current state of government pandemic plans is that they are excellent epidemic plans but completely useless in the event of a full-blown pandemic. They virtually all focus on an existing medical hierarchy and chain of command when in reality it will be the medical corps that will be hit first and hardest. To date only a handful of pandemic plans have even remotely hinted at addressing social aspects and provision of staples when it is quite obvious even to the most jaded observer that the very fragile J.I.T. supply system adopted by most staple distributors will fall apart within days. I have personally taken this case to everyone from Canadian Health Minister Clement to WHO Global Influenza Coordinator Fukuda and received little more than a polite “don’t call us, we’ll call you.”

There is a knee-jerk reactionary response built in to political structures and that is to always rely on the “magic bullet,” regardless of cost or efficiency. Unfortunately, in the case of H5N1, there is no such bullet on the horizon. Tamiflu, Relenza, Peramivir, Amantadine and Rimantadine are only marginally effective, only when given in large prophylaxis doses and relatively useless once symptoms commence. I think we’ll see a 10 cent gallon of gasoline before we see a true H5N1 pandemic vaccine. But that doesn’t stop the unconscionable squandering of billions of tax dollars to enrichen the pharmaceutical companies in exchange for little more than placebos.

I believe our consciences will not allow us to sit idly by in the prospect of what could potentially be the greatest human die-off since the Black Plague. So what can we do? Continue to raise hell, even though our chances of actually being heard by anyone in a position to take any effective action whatsoever are quite remote.

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.AGoodBook
Page last modified on November 03, 2006, at 08:07 AM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Ok Whats Your Flu Related Halloween Costume

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Ok Whats Your Flu Related Halloween Costume

26 October 2006

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 17:52

I guess I’m really bored….I was sitting here thinking about all the usual creative ideas people come up with for Halloween costume & wondered what the great minds here could come up with to have fun and promote flu awareness at the same time — how would you make a costume that looks like a Tamiflu pill or an Awareness ribbon? Or one that looks like a Kleenex or a sneeze???

I’ll bet y’all can come up with some ideas - let’s hear ‘em!

Pixie – at 17:57

My suggestion to my daughter was full PPE, an N95, and a couple of rubber chickens. People would pay attention, at least.

anonymous – at 18:00

Nuh uh!!! LOL!

A friend of mine did a hurricane Katrina costume last year. It was Whitney Houston wearing a “Miss Katrina” sash, and makeup to simulate a powdery substance windswept around her nose.

Not sure though an AI costume would go over quite as well in general. But you’ll be the talk of the party for sure.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 18:04

I think the bio-hazard wear would be great!….maybe with an orange vest with fluwikie.com written all over it! Or maybe a costume like a WalMart employee or better yet a pharmacist!

Northstar – at 18:05

One of the funniest bird-related costumes I’ve seen was a take-off on Hitchock’s “The Birds”: a darling Chanel suit, a Tippi Hendron blonde upsweep, and those little craft-store birds pinned all over it. A hanging eyeball completed the ensemble. OK, so not bird flu but a hoot nonetheless.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 18:09

That’s a riot Northstar! Some people can just think up anything can’t they? I unfortunately have NO imagination….I tend to go around on the big day as a “stuffed shirt”.

Sniffles – at 18:12

I was a pandemic chicken for our Labor Day parade in town! We handed out pandemic pamplets to the adults on the parade route.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 18:15

What was your costume made of??

Goju – at 18:18

Tie-Dyed Bodybag

Sniffles – at 18:18

It had a rubber chicken head (total head mask) and rubber feet. The body was a furry/fuzzy white cloth and had orange leggings. I had to really high step it with those feet though! It got so hot I thought I was a roasted chicken!

lady biker – at 18:55

how about a box of kleenex??????………and hand out papers tellin people how to sneeze and cough…….. a bottle of cold medicine……? a pepto bismol tablet??? aspirin bottle? box of Imodium….that would be a good one and easy too……hahahha

FloridaGirlat 19:03

Flu or virus related? Virus related = Dress up like a chicken with red spots all over…….. Chicken pox

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 19:06

FloridaGirl, I mistakenly always seem to think of it as being the same thing — since I’ve NEVER had the flu, even the regular flu is scary to me! But I was thinking about Bird Flu costume-related fun. :-)

Goju – at 19:09

Sack of Rice

FloridaGirlat 19:11

Well, I read your post and that popped into my mind… But chicken pox is a virus, but it is not flu…

But since the flu is a virus also… I thought I would expand on your humor…

:)

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 19:35

Goju – at 18:18 Tie-Dyed Bodybag Goju – at 19:09 Sack of Rice

Good ones! :-)

FloridaGirl – at 19:11 Makes good sense! I see what you mean! :-)

How about a pressure canner costume? Probably too obtuse….I like a big aspirin!

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 19:36

If tuna cans were taller, that would make a good costume….hard to be a squatty can if you’re not squatty to begin with!

Northstar – at 19:57

OK, here goes: get a few long yellow maribou shrugs at Michaels, the craft store. (Think Big Bird.) With a few stitches, attach them to a white sweat top and cut off sweat “shorts”. Wear orange tights, should be easy to find now. A pair of yellow or red rubber dish gloves can be your wattle/comb. Now for the piece de resistance: red and black makeup around the eyes to look miserably sick, and put tissues up your sleeve, and sneeze a lot. Wa-la!

Feather Pillow – at 20:00

you could stay traditional and be the Grim Reaper and hand out PF info.

Northstar – at 20:13

FPaat20: That is soooooo gooood! It would just be living up to my reputation nowadays, anyway!

Northstar – at 20:18

Oh! Oh! Here’s one! Actually I’m known as a prophet of doom, so: Crazy-person hair, a sandwich board with “The End is Near!’ on the front and “Beware Bird Flu!” on the back with a cartoon of a croaked chicken. But in little letters… “pandemic flu.gov and fluwiki.com” =:-D (That’s my crazy hair!)

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 21:05

bump

Bronco Bill – at 21:07

I’m thinkin’ ‘bout dressing up as Big Bird from that YouTube video about BF!!!

anonymous – at 23:38

A corpse.

27 October 2006

preppiechick – at 00:36

OMG! Too funny! But the wierd thing is, I just got back from a halloween thing with my kids and their friends. There was a costume contest and one of the winners, in the little kids category, was a mother chicken and her baby chicks. All I could keep thinking about was AF, and now this thread! Honestly, there are NO coincidences!

EnoughAlreadyat 10:47

One grandkid is going as the grim reaper. Another one is going to be the screamer… in that face mask that you can make “bleed.” Yep… I am gonna be making “this could be you” comments.

crfullmoon – at 10:56

Feather Pillow – at 20:00, and Northstar - Sort of a come-as-we are party, eh?

Maybe a cauldron full of Free Pandemic Preparedness Info for any adult you see this week…

Northstar - write “Pandemic Influenza” on you board (we have to teach them not to think “bird flu”)

;-)

(Halloween is also a good time of year to review your wills and final instruction sort of stuff - make sure the right people know where to find ‘em, too.)

Goju – at 11:15

a kerosene heater

a box of MERs

crfullmoon – at 11:24

“Keep the Reaper from your door!

Stock up! Debt-free!

Prepare some more!”

JWB – at 11:40

Maybe I should post this in thePreps you might forget thread.

I’m going to save a Halloween make-up kit for when TSHTF and someone comes to my door for food or invasion. When I answer the door they will think I am infected with something far worse than panflu. A handful of rubber cement will help also as I cough into my hand as I open the door. (Looks like mucus).

There is no way they will come into the house after that. 8-D

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 11:42

So how about a different view…..a “prepper” costume — a grocery sack with prep supplies coming out the top!

diana – at 15:03

Somewhere in the house is a rubber chicken. The only thing is if I’m in my gypsy outfit, carrying a chicken, they’ll kick me out of the casino if I was throwing a winning roll at craps. Hands above the table at all times. Might be a good luck charm, and then I’de be stuck forever carrying a rubber chicken in games of chance. I am superstitious.

28 October 2006

no name – at 10:54
  I am going as “DEATH”…of course I mention, “I’m just passing through”.
dian – at 10:57

Of course I could carry a tarot card deck, but then people would be asking me to tell their fortune. What would I say, prep? There may be avian flu in your lifetime?

diana – at 11:09

The crystal ball on my mantle has never been used, at least by me. Maybe I’ll look into it on Halloween.

Northstar – at 11:39

no name: Of course you could creep people out by pointing at them significantly… then sidling up with a pandemic brochure. (G) You _do_ have roller shoes for that certain gliiiiiide, don’t you?

Grace RN – at 14:19

I’m a 5′4″ head-to-toe bright yellow chicken!!!! My family is dying of laughter at me-don’t care.

29 October 2006

crfullmoon – at 06:52

Got pandemic year preparedness handouts ready? Or at least cards?

;-) Have fun!

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 07:31

Survivalist in cammo costume!

30 October 2006

diana – at 11:55

Yesterday at the mall, death passed through on the escalator. spooky as all get out. Black velvet cape lined in red velvet. I kept my eye on him, and eventually he pushed back the hood to reveal himself a goth. He had a black goatee and when hidden by the hood was almost invisable though his skin was very white. He seemed to glide, maybe was wearing those roller shoes that kids zip around in.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 13:17

Some people are soooo good at costumes…..others like me go as ‘role models’.

diana – at 13:28

Another first at this mall. They rented out floor space to a psychic. $10 a pop.Wonder how long she’ll last. I should rent her my gypsy outfit and crystal ball.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 13:37

Wow. I’ve never seen a psychic that appeared to be able to afford mall rent prices! She must be GOOD!

How about a pinto bean costume? Maybe a pinto bean with a cowboy hat!!! :-)

no name – at 21:40

Northstar @11:39

No roller shoes…I’m trying not to kill myself!!!

31 October 2006

crfullmoon – at 07:49

Happy Halloween!

Northstar – at 09:09

no name: And I don’t think you’d be very welcome in a hospital dressed as Death! (G)

blackbird – at 09:58

Answering the door in mask and gloves?

blackbird – at 09:59

N95 mask, I mean

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 11:03

Makes me almost wish we had trick-or-treaters! Haven’t had any in years….but I still buy candy just in case! :-)

crfullmoon – at 19:19

Never get many trick-or-treaters, but, I have handed some parents the pandemic awareness card/links today, as I’m sure others have too.

(These “inside-out” Reeses taste wierd, eh?)

“O Fortuna ! ve-lut luna, sta-tu va-ri-a-bi-lis, sem-per cres-cis, aut de-cres-cis …”

crfullmoon – at 21:38

Jack-o-lantern photo

newore – at 21:43

me, i’m holed up at the coast. no door traffic.

wrapped up house in pdx.

not sip, but interesting, eh ????

Jane – at 22:21

Some young teens came to my door, one girl in a gray wig styled in a bun and a long dress and the other girl dressed as a bag of groceries. I called after them, Mother Hubbard, your dog won’t go hungry! and their mother laughed. Wonder if she’s a prepper?

parkingme – at 22:27

Hi. I am new to posting here. I have been a “lurker” for months. I just had to share this costume with everyone. WTSHTF….literally. Hope I do this right.

  http://tinyurl.com/y2q4vg
Mamabear – at 22:30

I’m going to wear my nursing scrubs with a big bullseye on it.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 23:14

parkingme – at 22:27

that’s priceless!!! :-)

Welcome out of the shadows on this Halloween night and need I mention again to go meet the folks on your state’s thread. Thanks for the good laugh…..as predicted we had no children come…..so your contribution was one of the few costumes I saw today!

02 November 2006

crfullmoon – at 17:50

How did everything go?

Grace RN – at 19:01

Next year-a jar of ‘Beano’ with air-filled balloons glued all around…

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 19:04

HEHEHE….. good one GraceRN

blackbird – at 20:42

Did hand out candy in my nitrile gloves, since I have a cold or flu.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 21:39

blackbird hope you’re better by now! Good for you for protecting the kiddies!

03 November 2006

blackbird – at 00:51

Not better yet, but thanks for the good wishes, I’m-workin’-on-it. I’m testing my illness food and other preps :) (this is minor illness, not major)

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.OkWhatsYourFluRelatedHalloweenCostume
Page last modified on November 03, 2006, at 12:51 AM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / News Reports for November 2

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: News Reports for November 2

02 November 2006

AnnieBat 01:20

(If you want any of the links to open in a new window, hold down the shift key and then click on the link)

Summary from Indonesia Outbreak as at 1 November 2006

Cases DiscussedJun-06Jul-06Aug-06Sep-06Oct-06Nov-06Total
Died, no tests22436017
Died, tested positive43233015
Other tested positive0131005
Suspected symptoms424638340124
Tested negative0626197058
Totals10148164500219

Lookout Posts – here are the links (if no Lookout Post exists, it will not be highlighted)

Please visit these threads for latest information from these regions or to add news

NoRegion NameNoRegion NameNoRegion Name
1USA8East Africa15Arab Peninsula
2Canada, Greenland and the Arctic Circle9Southern Africa and Madagascar16Central Asia
3Central America and Caribbean10Northwest Europe and British Isles17Southern Asia
4South America and Surrounding Islands11West and Southwest Europe18Mainland East Asia and Japan
5Northern Africa12Central and Southeast Europe19Southeast Asia
6West Africa13Eastern Europe and Baltic Region20Australasia Melanesia and Micronesia
7Central Africa14Middle East and Caucasus Region21Pacific Islands and Antarctic

(Please see the thread Volunteers Needed as Lookouts Worldwide if you want to help)

(There are separate threads for India, Indonesia, and Nepal because of their current situation. See News Summary below.)


Summary of News for 1 November 2006

(From WHO as at 31 Oct - latest update) Total human cases worldwide 256, deaths 152 (2006 – 109 with 74 deaths)

India

Indonesia

Iran

Italy

Nepal

South Africa

United Arab Emirates

United Kingdom

United States of America

General

Link to news thread for 1 November (link News Reports for November 1 )
(Usual disclaimer about may not have captured everything. Feel free to add your own where omissions have occurred.)
Please note that I copy the links directly from the thread so if they don’t work you may need to re-visit the Thread.

AnnieBat 01:26

Vaccination program keeps new bird flu strain out of Vietnam

Mr Trinh Quan Huan, deputy minister of the Health Ministry (link http://tinyurl.com/yjg8pb)

Poultry inoculations have halted a virulent strain of bird flu detected by scientists in Hong Kong and the US from surfacing in Vietnam, said a health official at a conference on virus control yesterday. Trinh Quan Huan, deputy minister of the Health Ministry, confirmed over 100 million poultry which had been inoculated under a government program in Vietnam were still immune to the disease, which meant the super strain had yet to enter the country.

The new bird-flu virus strain, known as “Fujian-like virus” first discovered in China’s southern Fujian province in March 2005, has recently plagued several neighboring countries, including China, Thailand, Laos and Malaysia.

Also at the conference, a partnership was set up to support Vietnam in the national operational program for bird flu control to 2010, also called Green Book, …

<snip> Researchers said the Fujian variant had already initiated a new wave of transmission throughout Southeast Asia and might spread further in Eurasia due to its resistance to current vaccines which protected poultry from H5N1 virus.

AnnieBat 03:27

(USA) Oregon health teams drill for flu chaos

Pandemic - Hospitals, school districts and other agencies are testing their readiness for a widespread outbreak Thursday, November 02, 2006 PATRICK O’NEILL

An influenza pandemic has raged in Oregon for the past two weeks. Twenty percent of the work force is out with the flu. Hospitals are overflowing with sick patients and are running out of ventilators and supplies.

How do hospitals, schools and businesses get treatment and vaccines to those who need them most?

To find out, state and local health officials are conducting the largest and most complex drill yet in Oregon to test the readiness for an influenza pandemic. More on this story at http://tinyurl.com/y53al8

AnnieBat 04:30

(UK) Tyneside scientist’s bird flu mission

Nov 2 2006 By Liz Hands Health Correspondent, The Journal

Scientists from the North-East are turning to the rainforests of South America in a bid to find a cure for pandemic illnesses like bird flu.

Professor Malcolm Young from Newcastle University has joined forces with a Brazilian drugs company to look for plants which can be developed as new medicines.

A drug discovery firm set up by Prof Young, e-Therapeutics, will be developing a joint research facility, with Brazilian company Grupo TCI, close to the Amazonian and Atlantic rainforests.

Researchers will start testing substances from the millions of plants in the most diverse ecosystem on the planet.

Yesterday Prof Young said the move was necessary because the number of new drugs being developed in the world is dwindling. More at http://tinyurl.com/yb632p

anon_22 – at 06:35

COMMENT: On the subject of Fujian strain from China, I’m reading various press reports as well as the PNAS paper, which I will write up on a different thread later today. I’m posting this here cos its partly news but from Chinese media.

Suffice it to say that the Chinese media in Hong Kong is giving this rather wide coverage. Guan Yi is quoted as saying that this strain covers large areas, including urban centers. Also that 4 provinces with human cases have not reported poultry outbreaks.

He is also quoted as saying that this strain is ‘highly virulent’, which I’m not sure is a scientifically based description or a different way of using the phrase in the Chinese language. I’m going to try and hunt up any data on virulence later.

In addition, the percentage of H5N1 positive samples that belong to this strain has increased from 1% in July - Sep 2005 to 95% in April - June 2006. This means that this strain has essentially wiped out the multiple sublineages that we wrote (and worried) about before.

If we were worried about multiple sublineages, I find one single dominant strain even more worrying.

Commonground – at 06:36

So, I read this to say the mixture of seasonal and avian influenza is the “Fujian” virus, which has been proven in China. Am I interpreting this article correctly?
http://tinyurl.com/ye3scm
Health Minister Siti Fadilah Supari asked the community to guard against the bird flu virus that often was contagious in the season pancaroba like at this time. Although the bird flu virus in Indonesia still the kind for a long time continue to have to be guarded against. “Immediately the vaccination or the immunisation.” The normal flu had his vaccination, said Menkes in Jakarta, recently. In the season pancaroba, the breeding and surviving bird flu virus older because of the temperature of air that colder. Together with went him the change in the season from dry to the rainy season, the community usually more susceptible terjangkit influenza. This condition enlarged the possibility of the bird flu virus of marrying the normal flu virus so as to produce the virus that more raging. “So don’t have the marriage between normal flu and bird flu,” stressed Menkes. The virus that bermutasi like was depicted above has been proven was in China. The local circle of the health expert acknowledged him as Fujian bird flu. According to them, this new kind virus was more resistant and deadly the poultry also humankind

anon_22 – at 06:42

Commonground – at 06:36

So, I read this to say the mixture of seasonal and avian influenza is the “Fujian” virus, which has been proven in China. Am I interpreting this article correctly

No, the Fujian strain is not a reassortant between H5N1 and seasonal flu. It’s a new strain of H5N1.

New strains of H5N1 has been formed continuously for the past few years, and previous studies have shown them to be increasingly virulent towards mammals. How virulent this one is, I’m still trying to see if there is any data.

anon_22 – at 06:51

A quick note from the PNAS paper, the Fujian strain is sensitive to amantadine and oxeltamivir.

lugon – at 07:00

oseltamivir (just in case we want to do a search later in the game)

Klatu – at 08:54

China says no evidence of new bird flu strain

Thu Nov 2, 2006 1:15 PM GMT

BEIJING (Reuters) - “China has found no evidence of a new strain of H5N1 bird flu in its southern provinces and said on Thursday there was no need to share virus samples with the World Health Organization (WHO).

Scientists in Hong Kong and the United States said in a report released this week they had detected a new strain of bird flu, first isolated in the southern Chinese province of Fujian last year, that may have started outbreaks in Southeast Asia. But China rejected the report, published in the U.S.-based Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (www.pnas.org), saying there was no evidence of major changes to the virus since 2004.

“Up to now, the bird flu viruses selected from the south share a high uniformity,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao told a regular news conference.

“There has no marked change in the biological characteristics of the organisms.”

- excerpt

http://tinyurl.com/yelqa8

Klatu – at 09:00

Continued Hoarding Of H5N1 Sequences

Recombinomics Commentary

November 2, 2006 - excerpts

“The above acknowledgment by WHO of the potential importance of minute changes in H5N1 is a welcome change.  In the past, WHO updates have focused on the lack of major changes, such as the acquisition of human genes via reassortment.  However, there has been no data to support such an acquisition by H5N1 and the H1N1 1918 pandemic also did not involve reassortment.  Although the basic tenets of influenza genetics cite reassortment as the source of genetic shift and random mutations as the source of genetic drift, the H5N1 clearly demonstrates evolution by recombination.

Researchers in China have acknowledged the recombination in H5N1 in their earlier submissions to Genbank entitled, “A cohort of AIV H5N1 subtypes isolated from wild aquatic birds and domestic poultry revealed rapid transmission, frequent reassortment, and identifiable recombination events”. 

Sequences released last month confirmed the recombination, but researchers from St Jude and Hong Kong University have failed to acknowledge such changes, even though recombination was obvious in sequences from Hong Kong in 2002 in PB2, PB1, PA, and NP.  The sequences released this week also had evidence of recombination with the Qinghai strain, as well as obvious recombination in genes that were closely related to sequences released by researchers at the Beijing Genome Institute.

The recombination provides a roadmap of prior and future interactions resulting from dual infections and the exchange of genetic information, which is the main driving force behind H5N1 evolution.  Thus, a full and current database is essential for monitoring the evolution of H5N1 as well as the development of vaccines against emerging genomes.

The complaints against China are justified. 

The hoarding of these sequences by the major sequencers worldwide is cause for concern.  The sequences provide critical information on the interactions and transport of H5N1 as well as the genetic diversity, which drives the evolution.  The release of full sequences from current and past H5N1 isolates, which can be done at no charge via the NIAID sequencing project, is long overdue.”

http://www.recombinomics.com/whats_new.html

Klatu – at 09:06

East China province reinstates bird flu monitoring

www.chinaview.cn

2006–11–02 18:10:57

JINAN, Nov. 2 (Xinhua) — “Shandong Province, east China, has reinstated round-the-clock bird flu monitoring to prevent possible outbreaks as more and more migratory birds fly over the province on their way further south.

Li Zhanpeng, head of the provincial wildlife protection center, said that all 153 monitoring stations in the province were ordered to report on a daily basis.”

http://tinyurl.com/ycsn3d

Bluebonnet – at 09:10

Possibility of avian influenza epidemic a worry

http://tinyurl.com/y4k26f

It may not be appropriate to bracket the leisure of the tourism industry with the menace of the avian influenza epidemic. It certainly is not a pretty comparison.

“Pretty or not, it is a fact that we are all have to deal with right now,” Ngurah Mahardika stated.

Mahardika is the team leader of the Avian Influenza Detection and Identification Program, an ongoing, government-funded project carried out by the school of veterinary medicine at Udayana University.

Since late 2005, Mahardika and his team have conducted extensive surveys in Bali, West Nusa Tenggara and East Nusa Tenggara, searching for the dangerous virus.

The results are scary: The virus has infected poultry populations in 37 of the total 55 subdistricts in Bali. “We took samples in 152 villages and we found infected poultry population in 53 villages,” he said.

The bad news didn’t stop there. Recently, following a series of tests on 800 pigs across the island, his team has identified over 20 pigs infected by the virus. Back in 2005, when they tested 400 pigs, no infection was found.

Being a virus expert — he holds a PhD in molecular virology from Germany’s Justus-Leibig University — Mahardika knows perfectly well the dangerous implications of that recent development.

“It means that the virus has succeed in inching closer to the human population,” he said.

So far, there hasn’t been any reported case of the virus infecting the human population of the island. Yet, it is a grave, tragic error to think that it will forever ignore an opportunity to infect a new host.

uk bird – at 09:15

Klatu – at 08:54

China says no evidence of new bird flu strain

Thu Nov 2, 2006 1:15 PM GMT

BEIJING (Reuters) - “China has found no evidence of a new strain of H5N1 bird flu in its southern provinces and said on Thursday there was no need to share virus samples with the World Health Organization (WHO).

COMMENT

This would be the reason for doing a lot of research before making an announcement that could be disputed. If the affected country still pretends there’s nothing wrong, at least you know everyone else will believe you.

Pixie – at 09:33

China denounces reported discovery of new bird flu strain as inaccurate

02.11.2006 / Pravda / http://tinyurl.com/upcuf

China’s Agriculture Ministry on Thursday disputed a scientific study about a pervasive, newly discovered strain of bird flu in China, calling the report inaccurate.

The findings, released this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, said the new strain called H5N1 Fujian-like was found in almost all poultry outbreaks and some human cases in southern China and was now becoming prevalent in Hong Kong, Laos, Malaysia, and Thailand.

“China has taken note of the study about the variation of the bird flu virus in southern China published by an academic journal abroad,” the ministry said in a statement read aloud to reporters at a Foreign Ministry briefing. “The comments they made do not conform with facts.”

The Agriculture Ministry said H5N1 had been monitored in southern China since 2004 and that there had not been any significant mutations to the virus.

“The biological characteristics of the virus do not show apparent changes,” said the statement.

The retort follows renewed criticism by the World Health Organization that the ministry has not shared bird flu samples with the international health body since 2004. Sharing is key in helping health experts track the diseases and ultimately develop vaccines.

The Agriculture Ministry defended its actions. “We have shared all the information related to bird flu virus and diseases to international organizations in a timely manner,” the statement said.

<snip>

The study released in the journal Tuesday by Chinese and American scientists charted the spread of the new strain by testing geese and ducks found in live markets in six southern Chinese beginning in June 2005, reports AP.

Over the course of the year, the new strain became more pervasive, the study said. Among the 108 samples taken from poultry in April and June 2006, 103 or 95 percent were infected with the Fujian-like strain, the study said.

Tom DVM – at 09:40

Well!! It seems that the Chinese Government is going to put their new Director General in a corner right out of the ‘starting gate’.

It reminds me of the schoolyard when we were kids…choose…choose who your friends are.

A delicate situation is developing…many must feel a pandemic is imminent for the rhetoric to be so open…

…The new director general may gamble his/her future moral authority on the response to this one issue in the first few days of tenure.

Bottom line…another dumb move by the Chinese Government…a conspiracy…maybe

Scooba – at 09:45

Has anyone else seen anything on this news report coming out of North Carolina. It is being reported on WLOS TV station in Asheville, NC.

A possible outbreak of the flu forces Yancey County school officials to cancel classes through early next week.

http://www.wlos.com/

crfullmoon – at 09:46

bird flu virus and diseases -doesn’t cover “related” H5N1 mammal or human virus samples?

FrenchieGirlat 09:48

NEWS - WHO - http://tinyurl.com/yypcer - This just appeared on the WHO site, I haven’t read it yet.

Influenza research at the human and animal interface - Report of a WHO working group - Geneva, Switzerland, 21–22 September 2006 - WHO/CDS/EPR/GIP/2006.3 - English [pdf 98kb]

Contents

- Introduction
- Executive summary
- Detection and diagnosis of human H5N1 infections
- Protecting humans: vaccines and antiviral drugs
- Surveillance in birds and other animals: assessing the coming risks
- Deciphering the virulence and pathogenicity of H5N1 infections in humans
- List of participants

FrenchieGirlat 09:59

WHO REPORT – Extracts

Introduction

The present severe crisis with H5N1 infections similarly brings a need for cohesion and urgency in collaborative research efforts.

Nonetheless, the group had little difficulty in agreeing on the most pressing research needs. It was further acknowledged that the seriousness of the present situation, including the risk that a pandemic virus might emerge, is not likely to diminish in the near future.

Executive summary

A simple, rapid, robust and reliable test, suitable for use in the field or at the patient’s bedside, is urgently needed.

A genetic predisposition for infection is suspected based on data from rare instances of human-to-human transmission in genetically-related persons.

The development of a pandemic vaccine has become more difficult following the divergence of circulating viruses into distinct genetic and antigenic groups. To date, results from clinical trials of candidate pandemic vaccines have not been promising

Although resistance to amantadine is now widespread, the possibility exists that these resistant strains may be replaced by fully susceptible strains as the virus continues to evolve.

Evidence was presented for a change in virus shedding patterns, with increased shedding from the respiratory tract rather than the cloaca. Thus, for surveillance purposes, a corresponding change in sampling strategies – including both cloacal and pharyngeal swabs – is called for to get a true picture of the situation.

Recently, studies have demonstrated that the virus is now moving both ways in relay transmission, from poultry to migratory birds and back again.
>><<

FrenchieGirlat 10:00
Klatu – at 10:01

Niagara County: DEC UPDATE ON (LPAI) AVIAN INFLUENZA WILD BIRD SAMPLING

Samples Collected From Mallards in Niagara County Indicate Low Pathogenic Virus; Finding Poses No Risk to Human Health

ALBANY, NY — (11/01/2006) — The New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) today announced test results which indicate that a virus found in samples collected earlier this month from wild mallard ducks in Niagara County was low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI). LPAI has been detected several times in wild birds in North America and poses no risk to human health.” - excerpt

http://tinyurl.com/ykbx5b

DennisCat 10:01

Niagara County-New York - low path

A mild, mostly harmless strain of bird flu has been discovered in live mallard ducks in Niagara County. Samples collected from two ducks at the Tonawanda Wildlife Management Area tested positive for the H5N1 virus, but the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation stresses that this strain poses no risk to humans, and only mildly sickens the birds

http://tinyurl.com/susn3

FrenchieGirlat 10:17

Comment
Klatu – at 10:01
DennisC – at 10:01

Someone might want to forward this little sentence from the WHO report above to the labs and public relations outfits which investigated these mallards H5N1 infection:

Furthermore, domestic ducks and geese – and not chickens – have been identified as the true vectors of disease transmission in poultry.

DennisCat 10:20

Not sure if this has been put on the news thread yet or not.

WHO: H5N1 cases in Turkey targeted children, youth

…The disease struck only children younger than 16, even though their parents had probably been exposed to the same probable source of infection, infected poultry, according to the Oct 27 issue of WHO’s Weekly Epidemiological Record. “To some extent, this reflects the same age distribution observed globally, where 50.5% of cases occurred among people aged <20 years, and it suggests that age-related factors may influence susceptibility to the disease,” the report states.

Of the four case-patients described in the report who died, all were teenagers, while all the survivors were younger children, aged 3 to 9 years. “This reflects closely the global situation where the highest case-fatality rate (73%) has been observed in the 10–19-year age group,” the article says. …

A total of 21 human H5N1 cases had been reported in January on the basis of tests in a Turkish laboratory. But the WHO recognized only 12 cases that were confirmed by a reference laboratory in the United Kingdom.

http://tinyurl.com/yeld4r

Tom DVM – at 10:27

“Although resistance to amantadine is now widespread, the possibility exists that these resistant strains may be replaced by fully susceptible strains as the virus continues to evolve.”..

give me a break!! …yes and though it seems remote, I may win a Nobel prize someday…

Get off your magic pills…

…vaccines don’t work…they don’t work in seasonal flu (unless you consider less than five percent success a success) and so far China Flu vaccine has been an abysmal failure.

…and antivirals aren’t going to work beyond the first few weeks of a pandemic.

Every person who has treated THESE ANIMAL DISEASES in animals, knows the damage is done before your antivirals can stop it or in other words, reach effective blood concentrations…even if they were effective they will have zero effect preventing 90% of the deaths.

Accept the fact you are wrong…and start stockpiling pharmaceuticals that will save lives…broad spectrum antiotics, oral electrolyte powders, statins, prednisolone, acetominophen, advil etc. etc. etc.

You are wasting billions of dollars that are being thrown at wall hoping something will stick…well, two years down the road nothing has stuck…it is still all falling off the wall.

Give your head a shake…walk into a wall several times if need be…AND CHANGE YOUR TACT.

Medical Maven – at 10:30

Tom DVM at 9:40-A rigorously done, peer-reviewed study and a bald denial by China Inc.

Looks like SARS all over again.

China will not be jumping this track. We must give up on their help.

Commonground – at 10:37

From 10:01: mostly harmless. Got to love it. “Mostly” not “Totally”.

Pixie – at 10:55

TomDVM - at 9:40: A delicate situation is developing…many must feel a pandemic is imminent for the rhetoric to be so open…

Interestingly, I was just urging my daughter to sign up for a class on games theory at an MIT weekend for younger kids. She was asking what that was, and this morning I was able to use what is playing out in the press between China and the WHO as a perfect example.

It sounds more like a desperate situation to me, though, than a delicate one to have them shouting at each other at this volume after years of the tense ballet we have all witnessed.

Klatu – at 10:55

Official website

2008 Chinese OLYMPIC$

http://en.olympic.cn/

Klatu – at 11:01

UN officials: Migratory birds not major cause of flu transmission

www.chinaview.cn 2006–11–02 23:28:35

NANCHANG, Nov. 2 (Xinhua) — UN officials on Thursday said migratory birds do not play a major role in the transmission of the highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1. They made the remarks at the first international Living Lakes Conference in this capital of east China’s Jiangxi Province.

Dr. Vincent Martin, an official with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (UNFAO), said the spread of bird flu is mainly the result of the world’s fast and unregulated development of animal production to meet the increased demand for animal protein.”

http://tinyurl.com/ycsn3d

anon_22 – at 11:09

This is from the WHO document from FrenchieGirl’s link:

Recent evolution of the H5N1 virus in poultry in China.

A presentation from the University of Hong Kong reviewed findings from a surveillance network that covers some 4 billion birds in China. These findings indicate that the virus has become endemic and is continuing to evolve. The Z genotype of the virus remains dominant. In migratory birds, the Qinghai Lake outbreak changed the epidemiology in mid-2005, and this change signalled the progressive westward spread of Qinghai Lake viruses and their descendants. Surveillance over the past 24 months showed a peak in virus activity during the month of January, followed by a decline in virus activity in April. The situation is severe and not yet fully under control.

During the past year, more than 1,300 H5N1 isolates have been obtained from poultry in southern China. Prevalence is higher in domestic ducks and geese than in chickens, and highly pathogenic virus was being found in apparently healthy birds. Most of these isolates belonged to the dominant Z genotype. In southern China, viruses related to the Fujian-like lineage of the Z genotype were found in 80% of the isolates and that figure has recently risen to 95%, indicating that, in southern China, Fujian-like viruses are replacing other virus lineages and becoming the dominant lineage within the genotype.

To manage this situation, the whole poultry population will need to be vaccinated, accompanied by monitoring of effectiveness of the vaccination programs.


COMMENT:

I can’t understand the logic of the last sentence, “To manage this situation, the whole poultry population will need to be vaccinated”

What are they trying to say? The seroconversion from the current vaccinations is only 16%, what else do you think they are trying to achieve with more vaccination?

AND, this suggestion of more vaccination is NOT in the PNAS paper, which this portion of the report is supposed to be referring to. ie every sentence of the above quote verifies what the PNAS paper is saying except this last sentence. I wonder who wrote this and what is the purpose? Trying to appear that this is being suggested by the Webster-HKU group?

Klatu – at 11:18

anon_22 – at 11:09 wrote:

“What are they trying to say?”


 What we’ve got here is failure to communicate.


 Cool Hand Luke, 1967

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strother_Martin

anon_22 – at 11:26

:-)

Klatu, that was one of my favorite movies. Not enjoyable, just profound.

Klatu – at 11:31

Sumatra

Monitor Written Bird Flu by editorial staff Sinar Indonesia

November 02, 2006 at 08:06 AM - (excerpt-software translation)

Medan (SIB) the Section Head the Health of Prop North Sumatra Dr Hj Fatni Sulani instructed.

“Moreover to anticipate the assumption of the spreading of the bird flu virus, better the citizen before burying the kept poultry that died suddenly better be done by the extermination by means of burning him first.

However although being not yet found by the case of the assumption of bird flu to humankind in Tanjungbalai, the official of the health was alerted directly to the location and coordinated Officially the North Sumatran Health in order to anticipates the possibility of the existence of the citizen who was attacked.”

http://www.hariansib.com/content/view/16055/1/

FrenchieGirlat 11:32

FAO Report - There’s an interesting short report on the FAO site, dated October 2006 - http://tinyurl.com/yce6fw

It remains possible that H5N1 occurrence in Europe will recur – in, for example, the winter of 2006–2007. Should this occur, it is also possible that it will be with less intensity because occurrences of outbreaks to the east have also been less intense.

At the end of the report, there’s a link to the USGS Ecological Research Center, where you can visualize in almost real time the migrations of whooper swans, swan geese and bar-headed geese in Asia. If you use the link direct from the publication, you’ll need to remove the “i” at the end of the address, that’s a typo. The proper link is here: http://tinyurl.com/ym2dtd

anon_22 – at 11:35

COMMENT

FrenchieGirl – at 11:32

It remains possible that H5N1 occurrence in Europe will recur – in, for example, the winter of 2006–2007. Should this occur, it is also possible that it will be with less intensity because occurrences of outbreaks to the east have also been less intense.

Someone needs to tell them we should be less worried about the ‘intensity’ of outbreaks, since the new worry is asymptomatic ducks and geese, not dying birds…

banshee – at 11:39

Scooba – at 09:45,

About 250 students have gone home sick with flu-like symptoms at two schools and several child-care centers this week.

My, looks like it might be a nasty flu season.

FrenchieGirlat 12:08

Klatu – at 11:01 - UN officials: Migratory birds not major cause of flu transmission

Actually, this is not quite what the WHO report mentioned above says (http://tinyurl.com/yypcer), page 2 of the executive summary, penultimate paragraph:

Furthermore, domestic ducks and geese – and not chickens – have been identified as the true vectors of disease transmission in poultry. Recently, studies have demonstrated that the virus is now moving both ways in relay transmission, from poultry to migratory birds and back again. This finding might help explain some of the continuing geographical spread.

The quoted Dr. Vincent Martin, an official with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (UNFAO), was _not_ on the list of participants to the WHO Working Group.

As for what the FAO report says (http://tinyurl.com/yce6fw): Current information suggests that poultry are primarily responsible for the development of massive virus loads associated with outbreaks and high mortality at farms, ’but that wild birds may serve as the vector to transport H5N1 HPAI away from the farm thus introducing the virus to new geographic locations.‘ It is believed that amplification of disease in domestic birds and movements of wild birds may form one synergic mechanism responsible for the intercontinental spread of H5N1, along with both legal and illegal trade. In this review, we suggest that the spillover of HPAI from poultry to wild birds and back to poultry providing a powerful mechanism for rapid, major, geographical expansion of H5N1.

Oremus – at 12:11

Off-topic-comment

Commonground – at 10:37 The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy had an entry for the planet Earth, two words; Mostly Harmless.

anon_22 – at 12:20

Slides for the IOM Workshop are up Modeling Community Containment

Yay!

More stuff to read….

Tom DVM – at 12:25

Frenchie Girl. 12:08

Once again, in my opinion, regulators appear to be playing politics instead of discussing regulatory medicine.

The subtle message here is that it is all the migratory waterfowl’s fault…

…China Flu is not being spread by the Chinese Government through the inadvertent or directed sale of poultry or poultry products from infected farms that are sold instead of being culled.

The ethical way to comment on these things is to say that although it appears that migratory birds may be the true vectors, many of the outbreaks on farms may be in addition due to the transit and movement of poultry.

We should not underestimate the pressures and influence bought and paid for by the industry…

…and by the way, an industry no longer remotely controlled by farmers or in any way reminiscent of the family farm.

Betty – at 12:25

Thanks for the information Scooba. Isn’t it odd that they are closing two schools due to the flu; regardless of how many are out sick? I don’t know of schools being closed before due to the flu and I’m 42, so I have been around for a little while. Are they that worried right now???

uk bird – at 12:40

http://tinyurl.com/t749v

Genetic disposition suspected for human bird flu—WHO

GENEVA, Nov 2 (Reuters) - Scientists suspect some people have a “genetic disposition” for infection with bird flu, which may explain why some get it and others don’t, and why it remains relatively rare, the World Health Organisation said on Thursday.

Evidence, mainly from a family cluster of cases last May in North Sumatra, Indonesia — when seven people in an extended family died — showed genetic factors might influence human susceptibility to the H5N1 virus, it said.

Only blood relatives were infected in the Karo district of North Sumatra, the largest cluster known to date worldwide, “despite multiple opportunities for the virus to spread to spouses or into the general community,” it added.

continued.

blam – at 12:49

Scooba….Thanks for the ‘heads-up’. Keep us abreast of this situation as it develops.

Goju – at 12:49

Genetic disposition suspected for human bird flu—WHO

Oh - That makes me feel so much better. NOT.

FrenchieGirlat 12:50

NEWS - VIET NAM - Le Courrier du Viet Nam, in French - http://tinyurl.com/ygauqt - Sponsors and Representatives of Non Governmental Organizations have met yesterday for an international conference on avian influenza.

60 millions US dollars (60,000,000) have been pledged to revise and improve programmes of action against avian influenza in humans in 2006–2010, as well as for international co-operation. Half of that sum will be dedicated to a “Green Book”. Viet Nam was congratulated on its success in this fight, by the UN agricultural representative, as it has been free of bird flu for the last ten months. On a related subject, it is mentioned that the Viet Nam Red Cross has organized a meeting in Hanoi yesterday to prepare its second phase in the fight against this bane.

DennisCat 12:54

If bird flu virus becomes pandemic, high death rates possible: WHO report

“A group of eminent influenza scientists gathered by the WHO last month concluded there is no reason to believe that the virus, which kills roughly 60 per cent of people who become infected, would become any milder if it evolves to become a pandemic strain. …

If a new H5 enters, it could be more lethal than anything we’ve ever seen in history. (But) who knows? …It also reveals that a low level of H5N1 viruses found in wild and domestic birds appear to be naturally resistant to oseltamivir, the main flu drug being stockpiled against a future pandemic

It also questions the wisdom of stockpiling current versions of H5N1 vaccine for later use, saying there is little evidence that a vaccine against one variant of the virus will induce a good immune response against even other currently circulating H5N1 viruses, let alone future ones. “

http://tinyurl.com/y56ujj

crfullmoon – at 12:59

(one mis-information in there at 12:54; the old, virulent-can’t- transmit because sick-people-don’t-walk bit, despite influenza being contagious before symptoms strike) (but at least the headline was honestly blunt)

uk bird – at 13:01

Empirical evidence for the effect of airline travel on inter-regional influenza spread in the United States

http://tinyurl.com/yhubwl

Conclusions

We provided the first empirical evidence for the role of airline travel in long-range dissemination of influenza. Our results suggest an important influence of international air travel on the timing of influenza introduction, as well as an influence of domestic air travel on the rate of inter-regional influenza spread in the US. Pandemic preparedness strategies should account for a possible benefit of airline restrictions on influenza spread.

crfullmoon – at 13:02

Of course the WHO Ten things said that high death rates possible back in Oct 2005; 7. Large numbers of deaths will occur

TreasureIslandGalat 13:02

cp health news

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Thursday, Nov 02, 2006 If bird flu virus becomes pandemic, high death rates possible: WHO report

(CP) - There’s no guarantee the H5N1 avian flu virus would become less deadly to people if it triggers a pandemic, a new report from the World Health Organization warns. A group of eminent influenza scientists gathered by the WHO last month concluded there is no reason to believe that the virus, which kills roughly 60 per cent of people who become infected, would become any milder if it evolves to become a pandemic strain.

The report, based on that meeting, cautions governments against spending a lot of money to stockpile existing H5N1 vaccines. It also reveals that a low level of H5N1 viruses found in wild and domestic birds appear to be naturally resistant to oseltamivir, the main flu drug being stockpiled against a future pandemic.

The WHO scientist who convened the meeting cautioned, however, that the question of how lethal an H5N1 pandemic might be is the scientific equivalent of a black hole.

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Modern science has never seen a flu virus as nasty as H5N1, and there is no way of knowing if the virus can become easily transmissible among people or what an H5N1 pandemic would look like.

“It’s one of those things that you hate to conjecture,” said Michael Perdue, an avian influenza expert and scientist with the WHO’s global influenza program.

“We just don’t know enough about this virus, a whole new subtype for humans. . . . If a new H5 enters, it could be more lethal than anything we’ve ever seen in history. (But) who knows?”

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“I think it’s anybody’s opinion because it’s just so completely unknown.”

The report noted some modelling studies suggest a highly lethal virus could not spark a pandemic, because people who fall gravely ill aren’t walking about transmitting flu to others. “All such matters remain difficult to predict,” the report concludes.

It also questions the wisdom of stockpiling current versions of H5N1 vaccine for later use, saying there is little evidence that a vaccine against one variant of the virus will induce a good immune response against even other currently circulating H5N1 viruses, let alone future ones.

“We still don’t have the data that would say that a pre-pandemic vaccine based on one H5N1 strain would completely protect against another,” Perdue said from Geneva.

“Although one would hope it would mitigate the effects some, we don’t have the data to show it.”

The United States and Switzerland are stockpiling current H5N1 vaccines. And several other countries - Singapore and Britain among them - are reported to be in negotiations with vaccine maker GlaxoSmithKline to buy bulk lots of its H5N1 vaccine for stockpiling purposes.

© The Canadian Press, 2006

Tom DVM – at 13:10

My My My…blow me over and call me Dusty…the WHO and Dick Thompson have certainly come a long way from their blanket statement of 2–7 million mortality worldwide in Jan 2005.

Explain to the world now why you made the statement then and why you have now ‘changed your tune’.

It is not good enough that you have done this without a full scientific explanation of your conclusions, both then and now.

FrenchieGirlat 13:15

NEWS - WHO to unveil global anti-counterfeiting plan - http://tinyurl.com/y43b7m

2 NOVEMBER 2006 | GENEVA — On 15 November, the World Health Organization (WHO) and its partners will officially launch the first ever International Medical Products Anti-counterfeiting Taskforce (IMPACT) and unveil the global plan to combat counterfeit medical products.

Goju – at 13:18

““We just don’t know enough about this virus, a whole new subtype for humans. . . .”

Its been under study since 1997… and they don’t know a whole lot about it?

uk bird – at 13:20

I’d rather they admit what they don’t know, than pretend they’ve got it all under control.

Tom DVM – at 13:21

uk bird. They already tried that. /:0)

Commonground – at 13:24

Tom - at 13:10…..maybe they have “evolved”.

Tom DVM – at 13:27

Commonground - at 13:24…..maybe they got “caught”. /:0)

Commonground – at 13:34

Tom DVM - “Blow Me Over and call me Dusty” - Ha! I’ve never heard that expression! I like it!!! :-) By the way, I agree with you, we demand an explanation re: the turnaround…..oh wait a minute……they are politicians……forget the explanation.

FrenchieGirlat 13:38

Tom, maybe WHO is having a case of “recombination” on the DT gene at position 627? That position has been shown to influence pathogenicity in mice but is not consistently correlated with severity of the twisted mouth infection among staff isolated from WHO… Ooops!

Commonground – at 13:43

LOL Frenchiegirl!

JWB – at 13:46

I still don’t understand this rationale of the WHO:

The report noted some modelling studies suggest a highly lethal virus could not spark a pandemic, because people who fall gravely ill aren’t walking about transmitting flu to others.

Doesn’t an infected person shed virus for 2 to 3 days before showing symptoms? Once you are out of circulation, i.e. laying in bed recuperating or dying, the CFR is a mute point.

Where am I wrong here?

Jane – at 13:53

Here’s a university news story with a good beginning to catch attention:

By Conrad Wilson

A virus is creeping across the world, infecting millions from Seattle to Johannesburg, from Tokyo to Mexico City. Store shelves are barren, the University is closed, 30 percent of the Minnesota workforce is absent, the economy has tanked and medical supplies are inadequate.<snip>

Comment by Marguerite Pannaioanou, professor of epidemiology <snip> “It’s kind of like there is this presumption it will become a pandemic and so we’ll put these billions of dollars into after-the-fact trying to treat people, instead of appropriately beefing up budgets that are going to agriculture so that it stays in birds in the first place and never gets to a pandemic,” Pappaioanou said.<snip>

comment Was she misquoted? Or can she really mean we should transform agricultural methods across the globe? She goes on to say that Indonesia hasn’t done much to stop transmission in their poutry flocks, and they should follow China’s example and vaccinate their whole poultry population. ermm, I thought that didn’t seem to be working in China. Also no mention of pigs.

Most of this article paints a realistic and comprehensive picture, yet it seems overly optimistic in the length of time they expect to have before pandemic is everywhere, and in when a vaccine will become available. Unfortunately the writer didn’t have a quote from anyone who could/would describe the “empty shelves” impact.

http://www.mndaily.com/articles/2006/11/02/69690

Clawdia – at 13:54

I don’t think you’re wrong anywhere.

f-w – at 14:01

JWB – at 13:46

You’re not wrong, the modelling studies spoken of are completely off base, and people will have plenty of time to walk around shedding viral bodies before the first symptoms incapacitate them.

Smile, nod, ignore it as smoke and mirrors double-speak.

Dennis in Colorado – at 14:08

JWB – at 13:46

…and, if you need further evidence about the incubation period, WHO’s own web site, at
http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/avian_influenza/en/index.html
states, “The incubation period for H5N1 avian influenza may be longer than that for normal seasonal influenza, which is around two to three days. Current data for H5N1 infection indicate an incubation period ranging from two to eight days and possibly as long as 17 days. However, the possibility of multiple exposure to the virus makes it difficult to define the incubation period precisely. WHO currently recommends that an incubation period of seven days be used for field investigations and the monitoring of patient contacts.”

Medical Maven – at 14:14

One last comment on China’s bald denial of the predominance of the H5N1 Fujian strain-

Monotreme, you are “on top of it”, “in front of it”, and TOTALLY vindicated.

But nevermind.

But do come back with more, much more.

Tom DVM – at 14:15

“…H5N1 infection indicate an incubation period ranging from two to eight days and possibly as long as 17 days.”

…if you can’t explain your data…you just reverse things and make your conclusions fit the data.

This is pure, unadulterated HOGWASH!!!

DennisCat 14:17

The Annual Influenza Gamble: Who Should Give It A Shot?

“There is no overwhelming reason for a healthy person between 3 and 50 years old to get [a flu shot], unless they just don’t want to get sick,” said Dr Peter Anderson, president of the medical staff at New Milford Hospital. On the other hand, the protection rate is extremely high for those adults between 50 and 65 years of age who do get it, he added. That of course is if the flu strain going around is one of the three strains contained in the flu shot….

 CDC report from September of 2006 indicates that the influenza vaccination among the elderly, that group most commonly urged to receive the flu vaccine, is effective in only 30 to 40 percent of the cases in preventing the flu. That rate increases to between 70 and 90 percent for healthy adults under the age of 65, mainly said Dr Anderson, because younger adults have a stronger immune system than do the elderly. “In the elderly, the immune system doesn’t work as well, so the vaccine doesn’t work as well,” he explained. …

A study a few years back showed that patients with a history of heart disease had a notable drop in hospitalization if they had received the flu shot….

Dr Ofgang promotes a preventative approach to the flu season. “Eat right, get fresh air, and wash your hands. The stronger and healthier you are, the less likely you are to get the flu.”….

People should discuss the need for a flu shot with their physician and not just assume they should get it. Certainly, the amount of panic the last few years is way out of proportion to the effectiveness of the flu shot,” said Dr Ofgang.

http://tinyurl.com/wqatf

JWB – at 14:21

Dennis in Colorado – at 14:08

Current data for H5N1 infection indicate an incubation period ranging from two to eight days and possibly as long as 17 days.


Wow! All the time I spent on Fluwikie and I’ve missed that!

Thanks! I think

Fiddlerdave – at 14:37

In our considerations of the advance of H5N1, people should keep one thing clear in their minds. There are many powerful motivations for hiding the extent,types, and progress of H5N1(public image for tourism and exports, getting a jump on a enormously profitable vaccine, etc). Not just China, but most agencies are not releasing most sequences and are just talking about them. You should not only assume they are HIDING significant information, but that they are LYING at times when in their descriptions released to suit their govenmental and corporate patrons’ agendas. Count on it.

Pseudorandom – at 14:38

North Carolina, U.S.

Health Department Expands Drive-Thru Flu Shot Clinic November 4th

October 25, 2006

Wilkes County Health Department will be holding another drive-thru flu clinic this year as part of preparation for a public health disaster. Seasonal flu shots will be offered for $20 during the Drive-Thru Flu Shot Drill on November 4th from 7:30am to 3:00pm while supplies last.

[snip]

“Last year was the first time Wilkes County Health Department hosted a drive-thru flu clinic. We didn’t know what to expect. This year will be a good test of what we learned,” said Beth Lovette, Health Director. “We had a lot of good advice from our public and we’ve included it in our plans for this year.”

[snip]

“Even though we’re using regular flu shots, this is a great way for us to prepare for a public health disaster,” said Ms. Lovette.

http://tinyurl.com/y2o6vg

Homesteader – at 14:40

Dr Peter Anderson, president of the medical staff at New Milford Hospital.

LOL. . .I was born at the New Milford Hospital.

Homesteader – at 14:41

Dr Peter Anderson, president of the medical staff at New Milford Hospital.

LOL. . .I was born at the New Milford Hospital. Delivered by Doc Simons. Think they named a wing after him posthumously.

TreasureIslandGalat 14:43

speaking of… has the USA released the sequences of any of those “low path” H5N1 infections it keeps finding this year? Aren’t they supposed to release them as part of the OIE reporting requirements of Member States?

tjclaw1 – at 15:00

TreasureIslandGal – at 14:43 “speaking of… has the USA released the sequences of any of those “low path” H5N1 infections it keeps finding this year? Aren’t they supposed to release them as part of the OIE reporting requirements of Member States?”

That was my understanding. I’ve also wondered why the “North American” low path H5N1 hasn’t shown up in Alaska, where most of the samples have been taken. Also, are we certain the Illinois test really wasn’t H5N1, or just that they couldn’t isolate it from the samples. I’ve also wondered if “North American” H5N1 is just behind the Asian H5N1 in evolution and will jump to high path - how long has low path H5N1 been around?

Tom DVM – at 15:13

FrenchieGirl.

To quote BroncoBill “Bbbwwwwwwaaaaahahhahahahahahahahaha!!!”

anon_22 – at 15:16

Fiddlerdave – at 14:37

In our considerations of the advance of H5N1, people should keep one thing clear in their minds. There are many powerful motivations for hiding the extent,types, and progress of H5N1(public image for tourism and exports, getting a jump on a enormously profitable vaccine, etc). Not just China, but most agencies are not releasing most sequences and are just talking about them. You should not only assume they are HIDING significant information, but that they are LYING at times when in their descriptions released to suit their govenmental and corporate patrons’ agendas. Count on it.

I’m thinking “So what else is new?” so frequently that maybe I should put that into the FW quote thread.

It’s sad when you are no longer surprised by certain things….

anonymous – at 15:18

QUESTION Tom DVM at 10:27

Have you in the past, or are you able now, to make dosage recommendations for prednisolone with regards to pandemic flu treatment (esp. dosage for children)? I might be able to purchase some for my medicine stash and I sure would like to know how to use it properly. I know it’s dangerous stuff, so at the end of the day I may not even be qualified to administer it. Thanks.

Lurker Mom – at 15:19

Sorry, that was me at 15:18.

Tom DVM – at 15:21

“You should not only assume they are HIDING significant information, but that they are LYING at times when in their descriptions released to suit their govenmental and corporate patrons’ agendas.”

anon 22. With respect, is this not the definition of a “conspiracy”.

TreasureIslandGalat 15:21

The way I understand it, it all begins low path, but when it gets into poultry, it can quickly become high path. Then it can get back into the wild population as high path and be transported some more. Waterfowl are supposedly only mildly affected by low path, if at all. High path they may get very sick from or even die. Though in PIE, they supposedly died from “low path” -even though they weren’t able to recreate the virus in a lab to sequence it to name it one way or another. You would think if the waterfowl died, that it would have been high path. Low path isn’t supposed to kill waterfowl or make them very sick. -this seems to contrast with some of the birds’ health status they are finding with supposedly “low path” american H5N1. With the Asian H5N1, many waterfowl are showing little if any symptoms any more. So, whether a wild bird gets a little sick, real sick, or dies, doesn’t seem to be a telling factor any more.

If the american H5N1 gets into poultry and becomes high path, they will probably still spin it. “it was our more mild american H5N1, but it has no gone high path in american poultry. this is no tthe same strain as they are fighting in Asia. No need to worry. We have the outbreak well under control and protective quarantine measures are in place around affected farms. All birds are being culled to prevent potentially infected chicken from entering the food supply. All American chicken is perfectly safe to eat. Americans are reminded to continue to thoroughly cook their chicken to at least 160 degrees, as they should always do, and continue to practice good kitchen hygiene practices to prevent the spread of germs.” blah blah blah

Sniffles – at 15:23

Tom DVM – at 15:21 You said “anon 22. With respect, is this not the definition of a “conspiracy”.”

It is only a conspiracy if you are caught.

Sniffles – at 15:23

Tom DVM – at 15:21 You said “anon 22. With respect, is this not the definition of a “conspiracy”.”

It is only a conspiracy if you are caught/exposed.

Tom DVM – at 15:27

Hi Lurker Mom.

I know that you will understand that I am hesitant to give you a black or white answer on your question and why…

…There are a number of ways to come to the answer on this. One way is to ask a doctor, it could be your doctor or go to the desk at the Emergency Department of your local hospital and leave a written question at the desk.

The question you want to ask is…for a child who is x years old and x weight, what dosage of prednisolone would you use to treat a delayed allergy or reaction to a bee sting.

My sister in law is 35 yrs old and about 130 lbs. She had just such a reaction last summer and was dispensed 50 mg prednisolone per day, orally, for four days without any request for monitoring of any kind, either by blood test or seeing a doctor.

Tom DVM – at 15:29

Sniffles. You are right. Thanks!!

Tom DVM – at 15:34

TreasureIslandGal

The fall migration has started and we must assume China Flu is on the wing in North America.

We will not see clinical disease however until it shows up in a commercial poultry farm. This will occur when migratory birds cross contact farm poultry. It may take a while for the situation to present itself as poultry farms in North America are more isolated from waterfowl then in Asia.

Most often when waterfowl die in the wild, it occurs where no one will notice or it is attributed to many other things that can cause these deaths (In British Columbia this fall they concluded it was mould in grain or at other times botulism).

Commonground – at 15:34

http://tinyurl.com/yxmzlz US to change AI reporting rules
27 Oct 2006

Following the latest negative bird flu test result in Ohio, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) and Department of the Interior (DOI) are changing the US protocol for reporting avian influenza outbreaks.

The mass media will only be informed of outbreaks of bird flu if initial tests involve a significant number of sick or dead birds, or if there are other circumstances that suggest that the avian influenza subtypes found are highly pathogenic.In other cases where low-pathogenic AI is suspected, cases will be listed on the Internet. To date, the USDA and DOI have publicly announced 12 cases of potential high-pathogenic H5N1 in six states, all of which were found to be low-pathogenic or completely negative for the virus through confirmatory testing. In a joint statement, the agencies said that the new reporting rules were being put in place because “LPAI H5N1 detections are common and pose no threat to human health”. More LPAI cases are expected in the future as expanded surveillance of wild birds begins. DOI will maintain a list of all such routine detections as part of the National Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Early Detection Data System (HEDDS). The low path H5N1 detection list can be accessed here. A link also will be available on the USDA’s avian influenza web page. The USDA National Veterinary Services Laboratories (NVSL) earlier confirmed that there was no avian influenza present in samples collected from wild Northern pintail ducks in Ottawa County, Ohio. Initial screening results announced on 14 October indicated that H5 and N1 subtypes might be present in the collected samples, but further testing was necessary to confirm the H and N subtypes as well as pathogenicity.

TreasureIslandGalat 15:34

The world is so in an uproar over China right now for not sharing sequences. The USA may not be able to share its “low path” ones now, especially if sharing would inadvertently expose any little fibs told about what they had found initially. Then again, I suppose they could just “tweek” their sequence findings if they really wanted to to pacify the media and enquiring minds such as our own.

crfullmoon – at 15:39

JWB; the 15 days “incubation” times seen in a cluster are most likely what you and I would call human-to-human-to-human transmissions…

Tom DVM – at 15:42

“I suppose they could just “tweek” their sequence findings if they really wanted to to pacify the media and enquiring minds such as our own.”

TreasureIslandGal. Even as skeptical as I am (with good reason I think), I wouldn’t have come up with this one. /:0)

Lurker Mom – at 15:45

Thanks very much Tom DVM at 15:27

That was just the kind of answer I was looking for and I printed it out. I will get on that right away.

By the way, you are on a roll here today. I love it!

anon_22 – at 15:48

They don’t need to conspire. It’s how they normally do things. It’s us that have the weird culture….

Tom DVM – at 15:50

Lurker Mom. Thanks I think.

It’s Frenchie Girl’s fault…she keeps feeding the animals!! /:0)

AnnieBat 15:52

The question was raised earlier about why the US cases do not appear on the OIE list - that is because the USA is exempt from reporting to the OIE. So, now that they have decided to change the protocol on what will be made public … good luck folks

Commonground – at 15:54

Thanks AnnieB - I didn’t know that. Gee, the US has all their bases covered. :-(

Homesteader – at 15:57

anon 22 at 15:48

That is so much the case. TPTB live and see the world that way, and sadly, I believe it hyperendemic in their world.

That explains why they are threatened by truthful people seeking and speaking the truth, because it is outside their experience, and unknown, and therefore feared.

But that is another thread.

tjclaw1 – at 16:00

How is it that the U.S. is “exempt?” I suggested that the other day, but was didn’t think they were really exempt. Is it that they are not a “member?” If we’re talking about transparency, the U.S. should cooperate in the reporting.

AnnieBat 16:04

‘’‘ Bird Flu Adapted to Human Outbreak May Maintain Killing Power

By John Lauerman

Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) — The bird flu virus that is killing about 60 percent of the people it infects might mutate to spread more widely in humans without losing its lethal power, contrary to what some scientists had thought.

Researchers had theorized that the genetic adaptation necessary for a wider human outbreak might weaken the virus, making it less lethal. Scientists at a September World Health Organization conference in Geneva concluded that there’s no reason to think the virus must lose its virulence to spread more easily, according to a report of the meeting released today.

The H5N1 avian influenza is known to have infected 256 people in 10 countries and killed 152 of them, according to WHO figures as of Oct. 31. The death rate far exceeds that of the most deadly pandemic on record, the 1918 Spanish flu that is believed to have killed about 50 million people worldwide, or about 2.5 percent of those infected.

“Should the virus improve its transmissibility through adaptation as a wholly avian virus, then the present high lethality could be maintained during a pandemic,” the report said, citing a presentation to the meeting by researchers from the University of Hong Kong.

Rather than jumping directly to people as a bird virus, H5N1 might become contagious in people by combining its genes with those of a human influenza like those that spread through the population seasonally. That would probably result in a far less lethal version of the virus, the researchers said.

“It’s hard to predict,” said William Schaffner, an infectious-disease expert at Vanderbilt University School of Medicine in Nashville, Tennessee, who consults to the U.S. government on flu. “The proof will be in the pandemic; we fear the worst case and hope it never gets started.”

More on this story at http://tinyurl.com/sjzzt

Commonground – at 16:08

This is not H5N1. But I didn’t know where else to put it?

ProMed
At least 1 young patient and 15 staff members at Children’s Hospital Boston have been diagnosed with whooping cough [pertussis? - Mod.LL], the hospital and public health authorities reported yesterday, 1 Nov 2006, marking the 2nd time in 2 months that a Massachusetts hospital has faced an outbreak of the infectious disease.

Sixty other staff members at Children’s have symptoms of the bacterial illness and are undergoing blood tests to determine whether they have the condition, said Dr. Anita Barry, from the Boston Public Health Commission. Those workers were sent home until they can finish a 5-day course of the antibiotic azithromycin, said Dr. Thomas Sandora, an epidemiologist at Children’s.

Letters have been sent to the parents of about 1000 patients who may have come into contact with potentially infectious staff members, providing information about the disease and directions on what to do if symptoms appear, Sandora said.

“Many of those patients probably weren’t exposed, but we’re taking a very cautious approach,” Sandora said.

It appeared last night that Children’s did not follow the law in alerting local health authorities about the outbreak, which began in September 2006, in a timely fashion. State law requires that suspected cases of many infectious diseases, including whooping cough, be reported to the local board of health within 24 hours of being identified, a measure designed to contain dangerous outbreaks.

Hospital and city investigators said they believe the outbreak began after a 19-month-old boy was admitted to the hospital 21 Sep 2006 with a fever, cough, and wheezing. Initially, the child was diagnosed with a disease called respiratory syncytial virus, but because of worsening symptoms, he was sent to intensive care and subsequently diagnosed with whooping cough, also known as pertussis. From that case, the outbreak radiated outward, infecting nurses, clinical assistants, and administrative staff members, Sandora said. The toddler has recovered and none of the hospital workers became seriously ill, he added.

At St. Vincent Hospital in Worcester (MA), an outbreak in September 2006 infected 30 staff members. Officials said they believe a gastrointestinal surgeon who is a military reservist contracted the disease while on duty and unknowingly carried it into the hospital. [rest of the article is here: http://tinyurl.com/yk3bdx

Klatu – at 16:17

If bird flu virus becomes pandemic, high death rates possible: WHO report

12:30:01 EST Nov 2, 2006

(CP) - ‘There’s no guarantee the H5N1 avian flu virus would become less deadly to people if it triggers a pandemic, a new report from the World Health Organization warns.

A group of eminent influenza scientists gathered by the WHO last month concluded there is no reason to believe that the virus, which kills roughly 60 per cent of people who become infected, would become any milder if it evolves to become a pandemic strain.

‘’‘The report, based on that meeting, cautions governments against spending a lot of money to stockpile existing H5N1 vaccines. It also reveals that a low level of H5N1 viruses found in wild and domestic birds appear to be naturally resistant to oseltamivir, the main flu drug being stockpiled against a future pandemic.

The WHO scientist who convened the meeting cautioned, however, that the question of how lethal an H5N1 pandemic might be is the scientific equivalent of a black hole.” ‘’‘

http://tinyurl.com/vjvcj

JWB – at 16:18

crfullmoon – at 15:39

Thanks.

RobTat 16:20

And the earlier article by Canadian Press on the same topic with additional info on pre pandemic vaccines, (I wonder if it is Helen Branswell again?)

http://tinyurl.com/y56ujj

My first thought on reading this, which I believe is the first MSM report on real possibility of a severe pandemic re CFR was,

“Thank you Monotreme and Anon_22 and others who have been so far ahead of the curve in discussions on this and other topics, WAY before the establishment, scientific and otherwise.”

So may I say thank you to those here on Fluwiki who have had the intellectual capacity and committment to raise these crucial issues so that those that choose to heed the warnings have both the scenario expectations upon which to prepare, and the maximum lead time in which to prepare.

crfullmoon – at 16:28

(Thought I read: Gee, the US has all their biases covered. :-( )

Misinformation at 16:04, tsk tsk John Lauerman; …”might mutate to spread more widely in humans without losing its lethal power, contrary to what some scientists had thought.”…

Not the ones Dr.Nabarro had spoken with prior to Dec.2005 : …”The biology colleagues that I speak with tell me that if the pathogenic characteristics of H5N1 were to be taken forward as it mutates into having a human-to-human transmission capacity, then we would have a virus with high pathogenicity …” the pandemic will kill when it comes.

But more seriously perhaps, it will do massive economic and social damage, because ‘’‘our systems of trade, finance and governance are interconnected and will not survive the impact of a pandemic on workforces. We need to be able to deal with both the human consequences and the economic, social and governance consequences if we’re going to survive it.

And believe me, the pandemic could start tomorrow. By the time the pandemic starts, preparation will be too late. So, you should be doing this now, and that’s my message’‘’.”

He said that back in Dec.2005 but my state and local authorities refuse to get the public aware and preparing.

Klatu – at 16:29

Champion’ vectors

Reuters - Nov 2/06

“Mallard ducks have been identified as the “champion” spreaders of bird flu, and appear to shed the virus increasingly from the respiratory tract rather than via feces, the WHO said.

This finding will require modifying disease surveillance strategies so that samples are also taken from birds’ pharynx, as well as feces, it said.

“In terms of geographical spread of the virus, mallard ducks are now regarded as the ‘champion’ vectors; mute swans are highly susceptible birds that are thought to serve as sentinels, but probably not as vectors of virus transmission,” it said in the report, ..” - excerpt

http://tinyurl.com/sapvz

anon_22 – at 16:32

Klatu – at 16:17 If bird flu virus becomes pandemic, high death rates possible: WHO report

OMG! I’m shocked! You mean they’ve seen the light?

I’ll have to read the whole thing word for word to see for myself…

observer – at 16:33

OIE website US does report animal diseases - looks as though only high path requires reporting.

anon_22 – at 16:34

I guess enough scientists have been asked that question, and, more importantly, for evidence, that finally it is undeniable.

anon_22 – at 16:41

Here’s the actual quote:

“One especially important question that was discussed is whether the H5N1 virus is likely to retain its present high lethality should it acquire an ability to spread easily from person to person, and thus start a pandemic. Should the virus improve its transmissibility by acquiring, through a reassortment event, internal human genes, then the lethality of the virus would most likely be reduced. However, should the virus improve its transmissibility through adaptation as a wholly avian virus, then the present high lethality could be maintained during a pandemic.”

Which is what we’ve been saying for a long time.

crfullmoon – at 16:54

Dr.Nabarro, too, said the present high lethality could be maintained, back in Dec 2005, (link at 16:28), but I guess he couldn’t say it at every press opportunity and still keep his position or get let into nations with H5N1 problems.

Can we get this to the public’s and local official’s attention now/yet? ‘It does too say in your job description you’ll be personally impacted by natural disasters or plagues; didn’t you get the memo with your birth certificate?

Commonground – at 16:58

anon_22 - at 16:41 - which is exactly what you told me earlier today. Strange news day. Thanks again for your explanation.

Tom DVM – at 17:10

1830,1890 and 1918 proved that 1918 was the norm rather than the exception. If there was an exception, it was 1968.

How could they miss the point. Have they not opened a book in the last nine years…its there for all to see…every other independent scientist and several authors have found the information.

How could they model a pandemic in 2006 on 1968 rather than 1918 when H5N1 was described as the ‘kissing cousin’ of 1918.

This is not a joking matter. There may be billions of lives in the balance here.

We deserve an answer to these questions. Dick Thompson is in charge of media and public relations. We are the public. We directly pay his wages. I’m sure he isn’t tied up twenty-four hours a day…

…Dick, you personally and by your statements and by you portfolio have an obligation to come on flu wiki and defend the actions that you have been more than happy to explain to others who have no opportunity to rebute the statements.

I’m waiting Dick…we at flu wiki are waiting!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Green Mom – at 17:11

Betty @12:25

Our school system was shut down for a week year before last because of flu. When the absentee rate hits a certain percentage, the schools begin to lose federal funding and so they will close. I’m in Kentucky, but I know this happens in surrounding states.

It does seem early in the year though. Our school was closed in Dec-others in Jan/Feb/march. Of course they have closed school during March Madness too…….

Fiddlerdave – at 17:15

tjclaw1 – at 16:00 How is it that the U.S. is “exempt?” I suggested that the other day, but was didn’t think they were really exempt.” The USA is defacto “exempt” from every international rule or treaty you can think of when it suits TPTB (which is often), as is pretty much true for any nuclear nation. Whether you think this is a good thing or a bad thing will depend on your politics and morals (or lack thereof).

DennisCat 17:19

Klatu – at 16:29 “….mute swans are highly susceptible birds that are thought to serve as sentinels, but probably not as vectors of virus transmission,”

Remember the “swan feather-picking” family in Azerbaijan? I think they have selective memory. After all that was the start of an important cluster.

http://tinyurl.com/yybq36

Commonground – at 17:29

DennisC - at 17:19 - you have to really read the words.

“mute swans are highly susceptible birds that are thought to serve as sentinels, but probably not as vectors of virus transmission,”

Pixie – at 18:01

Homesteader – at 14:41 Dr Peter Anderson, president of the medical staff at New Milford Hospital….LOL. . .I was born at the New Milford Hospital. Delivered by Doc Simons..

It’s a small world, Homesteader. That’s the hospital ER I visited last year when I got a wallop of a head bang from falling on the ice. I had to wait 3 1/2 hours to be seen. Only 2 people in front of me. Hospital is enduring even more staffing cutbacks now. Doc I saw there had already stockpiled Tami for his entire extended family, and said the hospital could not handle a pandemic.

DennisCat 18:22

Commonground – at 17:29

I do read words. How can they say “probably not as vectors of virus transmission” when there is a proven case where swan feathers have lead to H5N1 and death? To me if families die from handling swan feathers then it is indeed a vector. It may not be a common vector, but most defenitely a vector. No “probably” about it.

Grace RN – at 18:45

anon_22 – at 16:41

RE:“One especially important question that was discussed is whether the H5N1 virus is likely to retain its present high lethality should it acquire an ability to spread easily from person to person, and thus start a pandemic. Should the virus improve its transmissibility by acquiring, through a reassortment event, internal human genes, then the lethality of the virus would most likely be reduced. However, should the virus improve its transmissibility through adaptation as a wholly avian virus, then the present high lethality could be maintained during a pandemic.”

I really do hate to be crass, but this will need to be reduced to the comprehension level of a 5th grader to get even partially understood by most towns governing bodies.

Not that they’re stupid per se, but few have a scientific background.

The only thing worse than someone not comprehending this is someone who pretends they that they do because they’re afraid of looking stupid. And then they may fail to act/react because others will see waht they failedto comprehend.

Not kidding here. Gotta make it 2 syllables or less.

Commonground – at 18:56

DennisC - at 18:22 - I think that they think they are safe with the words “thought” and “probable”. When someone comes out with the proof from Azerbaijan, then they can say….”well….we said “probably”. I’m having a hard time explaining this. They are just parsing words.

DennisCat 19:04

Commonground – at 18:56 To me they just ignore evidence that they should know and hope that no one will notice. It doesn’t do much to enhance my trust in WHO.

crfullmoon – at 19:11

Grace RN – at 18:45 What part of “We’re screwed” don’t they understand?

(Maybe this is where the part of the Declaration of Independance where we have to stop following authorities to our own detriment and make changes comes in, at least on a local level…)

How many federal and state planning documents did admit giving the public information pre-pandemic was vital, as was transparency and honesty - I did see references, somewhere…

DennisCat 19:17

Good news, kind of…

It is Type B and not Type A flu in NC where they had to close the schools down.

The victims tested positive for influenza B, the less serious of two types of the virus that commonly infect humans, the department said in a news release….

An outbreak of flu-like illness kept 250 of Yancey County’s 2,575 pupils out of class on Wednesday… We just need everyone to act responsibly,” Kinnane said. “Sporting events, recreational events — any high-gathering event — have been canceled or we’re recommending that they be canceled.” …

The findings at the North Carolina State Laboratory of Public Health must still be confirmed by further tests that could take up to a week, the state Department of Health and Human Services said…. ..

http://tinyurl.com/y4ddb6

aurora – at 19:33

“250 of Yancey County’s 2,575 pupils”

Wow. 10%? It would be good to know how quickly this spread through the schools.

anon_22 – at 19:37

BTW in case people missed it, I wrote up a summary of the WHO report. It’s here

Klatu – at 19:55

observer – at 16:33 wrote:

OIE website US does report animal diseases - looks as though only high path requires reporting.


Actually high pathopgen-samples can bypass reporting requirements under certain circumstances. This is what may have happened when H5 was discovered in Canada’s, Prince Edward Island earlier this year, and why it flew under the radar.

Tue Jun 20 2006 From: Klatu To: “Dr. N “

Subject: “ CFIA lab in Winnipeg : further testing did not support last week’s initial findings”

Comment: If your are deciding between neglect or intent, I would side with intent. - excerpt


Date: Tue, 20 Jun 2006 From: “Dr. N” To: Klatu

Tue, 20 Jun 2006

“I think the data is leaning toward intent.    ‘’‘Someone decided to test only one of the four dead geese and someone decided to beat up the samples on PEI for almost 2 weeks before sending it to Winnipeg.   The only way to avoid an OIE report would be to “lose” the H5N1.’‘’  An OIE report would be expected to have sequence data, and the sequence data would almost certainly show Qinghai H5N1.”   Henry

Klatu – at 20:39

Drug Interaction Can Render Tamiflu Ineffective

November 1, 2006 consumeraffairs.com

“Health officials are counting on the anti-viral drug Tamiflu to be a critical weapon in the event of an influenza pandemic, but it may provide only limited protection for some patients.

A new study at the University of Rhode Island’s College of Pharmacy indicates that the drug can be rendered ineffective in patients also taking the anti-clotting drug Plavix.

“Concurrent use of both drugs would inhibit the activation of the drug, thus making this anti-viral agent therapeutically inactive.” said URI Pharmacy Professor Bingfang Yan, head of a URI research team that focuses on why people respond to medications differently.

Yan has notified the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and the National Institutes of Health about the effect of Plavix on Tamiflu. The Journal of Pharmacology and Experimental Therapeutics will publish the results of his team’s research in its December issue.

“This is epidemiologicially significant because people who receive Tamiflu and Plavix simultaneously may maintain susceptibility to influenza or a source that spreads influenza if they are already affected,” Yan said. Yan said that because patients who have suffered from stroke, heart attack or peripheral artery disease would be among the high-risk individuals for contracting influenza of any strain, they could be among those getting Tamiflu and Plavix at the same time.

The Tamiflu website says it is the number one flu medication in the country, with industry data showing that more than 2 million prescriptions being written in 2005. Since the government has made Tamiflu one of its main weapons in the fight against a flu pandemic, that number would increase considerably during an outbreak. Industry data also show that more than 20 million Plavix prescriptions were written in 2005.

-excerpt

http://tinyurl.com/y5yv73

Influentia2 – at 20:57

http://tinyurl.com/se5s5

 Sorry if this is a repost. Thought it was interesting reading.

Ministries refute bird flu virus rumour in China

Citing a statement from the Ministry of Agriculture Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao yesterday refuted reports that a new strain of bird flu has emerged in southern China.

An article in Tuesday’s issue of the US-based Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (www.pnas.org) said a new strain of the H5N1 bird flu virus, called the “Fujian-like virus,” because it was first found in Fujian Province, has emerged in southern China and become prevalent in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Laos, Malaysia, and Thailand.

News of the new virus was widely reported in foreign media.

Quoting the statement, Liu said: “China has noticed recent publications by some foreign academic publications about the bird flu situation in southern China, but their claims are totally different from the real situation.

“Since 2004, China has been keeping a close eye on the bird flu situation in its southern regions.

“Gene sequence analysis shows that all the variants of the virus found in southern China share high uniformity, meaning they all belong to the same gene type.

“No distinctive change was found in their biological characteristics.”

In response to accusations from WHO experts that China is reluctant to share information and samples of bird flu, the statement said: “China has always actively participated in the prevention and control of bird flu and has maintained good co-operative relations with international organizations, and shares with the international community all the latest developments in the bird flu situation and virus information in the country in a timely manner.”

Source: China Daily

2beans – at 21:31

If this has been answered before, I apologize. Does the virus’ increasing propensity for respiratory transmission vs. fecal in Mallards mean further mutation toward tolerance of lower temperatures and is this bringing it closer to H2H respiratory transmission?

AnnieBat 22:04

Pigeons go nowhere as bird-flu law halts races

By Simon de Bruxelles (link http://tinyurl.com/ydn9gz)

Pigeon racing is facing a financial crisis because the Government banned international events to reduce the risk of bird flu spreading to Britain. The result has been a disaster for the 110-year-old Royal Pigeon Racing Association, which has the Queen as its patron. The association depends on on subscriptions from member clubs, but its annual income has fallen by £50,000.

Peter Bryant, the general manager, said: “I just hope this isn’t the death knell for the sport in some areas. We understand that there need to be restrictions in places where there are outbreaks of the disease but our argument is that if there is no disease in a country, as in France, then it is a complete over-reaction to stop us flying from there. Racing pigeons pose a very low risk of catching or passing on bird flu.”

Restrictions imposed in April meant that races could start no more than 400 miles from the south coast of Britain. The ban was extended to all international racing in August. This left organisations such as the British Barcelona Club, which races from Spain, without their premier race. The British International Continental Club, which competes against other European clubs, lost its international programme.

<snip>

The association insists that it has scientific evidence to show that racing pigeons have a high resistance to high pathological avian influenza, HPAI, including the deadly H5N1 strain. Even pigeons artificially infected with HPAI did not pass on the disease to healthy pigeons.

The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs said: “We will review this position for next year’s season in view of any increased knowledge. There aren’t any examples of pigeons passing on bird flu in Europe but this is a relatively new situation we find ourselves in, so we have to base policy on the veterinary risk assessment.”

03 November 2006

AnnieBat 00:24

I am just creating the News Summary then I will start a new thread so you might like to hold your posting for about 20 minutes.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / What Are Companies Doing to Prepare Employees

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: What Are Companies Doing to Prepare Employees

02 November 2006

Bronco Bill – at 14:19

Way back in March 2006, I opened this thread, asking if YOUR company had mentioned BF to it’s employees. At that time, I worked for a very large company based in Connecticut, and nothing had been mentioned to any of us. A few snippets of “ emergency excercises” were released to us, mostly in the guise of “Pandemic preparedness response”. The excercise that I witnessed was full of “bloody bodies” (fake of course), that represented the carnage after an attack on the building. This was used to tell the employees that we were ready for a pandemic, because the fire and police departments were “fully aware of what a pandemic could do”. Uhm…right.

Anyway, today, I no longer work there, since moving out of state. But a friend who still works there forwarded an email to me that details what, for now, the company is planning to do for employees during this coming flu season and in case of a pandemic. Herewith are a few snippets of the email, although I’ve replaced the company name with ABCXYZ:

ABCXYZ’s pandemic preparedness planning is guided by ABCXYZ’s values and focused on two critical objectives: to be there – no matter what – for the people who use our services and to help employees stay healthy. To that end, we’ve developed a learning course (on the internal website) designed to help you understand the facts about the avian (bird) flu, the pandemic threat and steps you can take, starting now, to protect you and your families.

The Pandemic Flu Awareness course, which can be accessed via the (internal website), provides you with practical information and common-sense approaches you can use to reduce your risk of infection from pandemic flu, as well as other less-serious communicable diseases, such as seasonal flu. The course takes about 30 minutes to complete.

Encouraging Healthy Habits to Reduce Risk of Infection

During the course, you will learn simple techniques you can use to prevent the spread of infection such as cough etiquette, work space hygiene, social distancing and hand hygiene.

Practicing good hand hygiene is often cited as the single most important way to control the spread of infection, particularly in the workplace. To encourage this healthy habit, ABCXYZ will distribute a bottle of alcohol-based hand sanitizer gel to all employees who work in ABCXYZ offices beginning in mid-November.

Also starting in mid-November and throughout the normal flu season, alcohol-based hand sanitizer dispensers will be available in ABCXYZ locations across the country.

Looking Ahead

The Pandemic Preparedness Flu team continues to closely monitor the progression of bird flu in other countries through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and World Health Organization. Our plans center on three main areas: prevention/infection control, business continuity and crisis response.

To make it easy for you to stay informed, a new ABCXYZ web page, Flu Preparedness has been created to house pandemic-related communications, facts and information. Employees can also find links to customer-related information and external resources.

In the meantime, we strongly encourage you to take the Pandemic Flu Awareness course before the end of the year. The more you know, the better prepared you and your family will be should a pandemic flu occur.

The old adage “an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure” has never been truer. Let’s work together to keep each other healthy. (And don’t forget to get your flu shot!)

It does my heart good that, even though I’m no longer with the company, some of my input (the hand-sanitizer idea) is being used. They are the smallish bottles, but at least it’s a start. I’ve asked my friend to take the course and let me know what it says about “cough etiquette” and the “social distancing” suggestions…

Hillbilly Bill – at 14:30

My employer is taking a 5 step approach to inform the workforce. So far they have communicated:

  1. Zip
  2. Zero
  3. Zilch
  4. Nada
  5. Nothing
Bronco Bill – at 14:32

Hillbilly Bill – at 14:30 --- At least they’ve moved up to using bigger words… ;-)

AzNewBeat 14:45

LOL @ Hillbilly Bill, hummm, wonder if we work for same company. Everytime I bring up BF, Pan Flu, I get a blank look and a “what are you talking about?” You would think that a company who’s major leaders are Mormon that there would be a least a whisper about a plan, so far NOTHING is being done except what I’ve done in my locatation. At least I know DH company has a plan in place, wished I worked there sometimes, but then I hate getting dirty and greasy..lol

crfullmoon – at 15:03

“two critical objectives: to be there – no matter what – for the people who use our services and to help employees stay healthy. To that end, we’ve developed a learning course (on the internal website) designed to help you understand the facts about the avian (bird) flu, the pandemic threat and steps you can take, starting now, to protect you and your families.”

(Buzzer sounds! “Pick another category please; still your turn!”)

In the meantime, I strongly encourage you to take the Flu Wiki Pandemic Flu Awareness week course before the end of the workday

Confirmed human H5N1 cases

WHO Report “If bird flu virus becomes pandemic, high death rates possible” …’‘’A group of eminent influenza scientists gathered by the WHO last month concluded there is no reason to believe that the virus, which kills roughly 60 per cent of people who become infected, would become any milder if it evolves to become a pandemic strain.

The report, based on that meeting, cautions governments against spending a lot of money to stockpile existing H5N1 vaccines. It also reveals that a low level of H5N1 viruses found in wild and domestic birds appear to be naturally resistant to oseltamivir, the main flu drug being stockpiled against a future pandemic’‘’

Perhaps that could all accidentally be emailed out to everyone at work…or at least to “The Pandemic Preparedness Flu team” …and the local media…

Bronco Bill – at 15:03

Okay, here are the five websites that the above-mentioned ABCXYZ company is telling employees to look at:

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

U.S. Government Avian and Pandemic Flu Information

For Seasonal Flu — Immunization Action Coalition Checklist

World Health Organization Avian Influenza

Individual and Family Pandemic Flu Planning

crfullmoon – at 15:08

The US govt, despite good mention of disruptions, then confuses the issue by saying

Prepare for Pandemic by having a 2 week supply of water and food….

People would be better off reading the Flu Wiki ;-)

Texas Rose – at 15:10

A while back, I commented to the other half that if AF hit someone in his office, he’d be sleeping in the garage for the duration because no way in hell would I let him back in the house.

He said not to worry, that if that happened, nonessential personnel would be told to stay home and do as much work as possible there. If he was at the office, he’d be staying put because they’d be in lockdown mode. That was the first time I heard of that. I pressed for more info but he just shrugged and said plans were in place to deal with the situation. Since he works for the government in a classified capacity, that was all I was going to get.

Bronco Bill – at 15:10

crfullmoon – at 15:03 --- Perhaps that could all accidentally be emailed out to everyone at work…or at least to “The Pandemic Preparedness Flu team”

I tried that, back in March. The only person who would contact me was their Public Communications Coordinator, and she said that TPTB had already decided on what they were going to convey to the employees. There were no names attached to the “Pandemic Prep Flu team” at that time…

Currently, the company has about 30,000 employees and over 14 million customers.

crfullmoon – at 15:17

;-) How many water coolers or coffee machine do they have? sigh.

http://www.hhs.gov/pandemicflu/plan/sup11.html#III.B

“S11-III. REcommendations for the Interpandemic and Pandemic Alert Periods, Institutionalizing psychosocial support services “

…”Healthcare and public health planners should also contact community-based organizations and nongovernmental organizations to determine the types of psychological and social support services and training courses available in their jurisdictions.

Healthcare and public health officials should consider needs for information sharing with emergency planners in schools, law enforcement agencies, and local businesses. Planning for the provision of psychosocial support services might include the following activities: Ensuring that administrators, managers, and supervisors are familiar with and actively encourage the use of tools and techniques for supporting staff and their families during times of crisis (see S11-IV.A and Appendix 3) Training staff in hospitals and occupational health clinics (e.g., social workers, psychiatrists, nurses, psychologists, counselors) in behavioral techniques to help employees cope with grief, stress, exhaustion, anger, and fear during an emergency (see S11-IV.A and Appendix 3) If feasible, providing training in psychological support services to persons who are not behavioral health professionals (e.g., primary-care clinicians, emergency department staff, medical/surgical staff, safety and security personnel, behavioral health staff, chaplains, community leaders, staff of cultural and faith-based organizations) ‘’‘Identifying additional resources that can be available to employees and their families during and after a pandemic Developing strategies to assist staff who have child-care or elder-care responsibilities or other special needs that might affect their ability to work during a pandemic’‘’

Preparing workforce support materials

Employers of response workers and providers of essential services should obtain or prepare workforce support materials (in hard copy or electronic format) for distribution during a pandemic. These materials should be designed to do the following:

Educate and inform employees about emotional responses they might experience or observe in their colleagues and families (including children) during an influenza pandemic and about techniques for coping with these emotions (see Appendix 3).

Educate employees about the importance of developing “family communication plans” so that family members can maintain contact during an emergency.

Describe workforce support services that will be available during an emergency, including confidential behavioral health services and employee assistance programs.

Answer questions about infection control practices to prevent the spread of pandemic influenza in the workplace (see Supplement 4) and employment issues related to illness, sick pay, staff rotation, and family concerns.

Healthcare institutions should be prepared to provide materials that address healthcare and training issues related to pandemic influenza (see S11-IV.B). To support these efforts, CDC, HRSA, NIH, and SAMHSA will collaborate with the Department of Homeland Security, other federal agencies, and nongovernmental organizations to identify or develop educational materials on:

‘’‘Stressors related to pandemic influenza

Signs of distress

Traumatic grief

Psychosocial aspects related to management of mass fatalities

Stress management and coping strategies

Strategies for building and sustaining personal resilience

Behavioral and psychological support resources

Strategies for helping children and families in times of crisis

Strategies for working with highly agitated patients ‘’‘…

crfullmoon – at 15:24

Handing out materials during a pandemic won’t be as effective as telling the public to get ready for one while they have time to now

Strategies for building and sustaining personal resilience need to be acted on now to mitigate mass fatalities, (the management thereof details need a lot of work, yesterday is not too soon, discussed with faith groups and the public), to reduce the number of highly agitated families in crisis with traumatic grief …

because people knew and didn’t warn them - I know I have permanently lost respect and trust for certain individuals and institutions in this pre-pandemic alert period; I can only imagine what the understandable public outrage during- and post- reaction will be.

KimTat 20:30

Not a darn thing is being done at my office. We are a well know internet company. I started talking with people in March,sent them links to learn more. No one followed up or got back to me. I talked with each individual person at the office.

The first time I gave them the link to fluwikie—the site went down the next day and couldn’t access it for a long time, but I doubt that had much to do with their attitude.

98% of the people I work with have kids that are between the ages of 10 thru 28. My VP told me if its G*ds will then so be it. The CFO said this is the most watched virus ever and he believed its over blown and if it does happen we will have a month or more to prepare. SIGH I gave him detailed information, handouts, flyers, charts…He avoids me now and it was a really low key meeting we had. Most have the attitude of “what-ever”

I’m waiting for the day they tell me that I use to many paper towels when drying my hands at teh sinks.

Not going to worry about them anymore. I now have a confirmed 5 other people who will be staying with me, my next door neighbors are informed and preparing too, thats more then I expected several months ago.

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Page last modified on November 02, 2006, at 08:30 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / New Flu Commercial Advising People to Seek Medical Attention Immediatly WHY Has Anyone Else Seen This

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: New Flu Commercial Advising People to Seek Medical Attention Immediatly WHY Has Anyone Else Seen This

01 November 2006

The Florida – at 23:10

Has anyone seen the commerical stating that if you or a family member gets the flu this season to see your doctor immediately? I live in the panhandle of Florida and I have seen this commerical for the past 3 weeks, and I was wondering if anyone knew why this ad was running???????? I didn’t know that the protocol for the flu for the average person was to immediatly go see your physician???????? I guess I will resume my prepping, I admit I have lax. Thanks for any input. Do y’all there is any hidden meaning behind this, I didn’t think the average person needed to see a doctor for the flu??????? Again, thanks for any thoughts or input, and happy preppy :0)

The Florida Girl – at 23:10
janetn – at 23:20
 Are you by chance talking about the ad by Roche the drug co.? That one I have seen.
The Florida Girl – at 23:37

I don’t know if it’s the same one, I have noticed where the commerical was sponsored by a drug company. Everytime I’ve seen it I’ve been like what????? What in the world are they talking about, go see your doctor for the flu????? I also thought the ad said that there was a new med for the flu????? If so then why get the flu shot? The first sign of a cold or flu I take Zicam and zinc. Plus I take vitamins and drink a lot water anywas so I’m usually never sick. I just don’t trust this commerical…………. What part of the country do you live in???? OH, and thanks for the return post, I usually get ignored :0)

anon mc – at 23:43

The use of Tamiflu for a “normal” flu has been clinically shown to shorten the duration of symptoms by one day. I would presume that if you are suffering from “normal” seasonal flu, the sooner you see the doctor, the greater the liklihood you will derive benefits from Tamiflu treatment. It is not likely to be a “pandemic ramp-up” as much as it is a sales pitch to get people in the physician’s office for a Tamiflu sale. Might be worth going in just for the script if you come down with anything remotely resembling the flu.

02 November 2006

mountainlady – at 00:35

I haven’t seen it where I live, but the idea of going in for the script makes sense.

But, then again, what if it is the pandemic starting and that script is necessary. How would a person know to go ahead and take it?

LA Escapee – at 00:56

They don’t mention a particular drug, do they? Just something about ask your doctor for a prescription drug for the flu. I thought it was weird too. Usually they mention the drug by name, don’t they?

enza – at 01:14

Could just be part of the surveillance being put in place for panflu, part of readinet.

janetn – at 01:30

LA no they dont mention a specific drug but since the company is Roche its not hard to quess what the marketing angle is

anon_22 – at 02:46

It’s probably just a tamiflu Ad. If you were Roche, you would say that, wouldn’t you?

Kathy in FL – at 04:53

The one I saw just had some kind of disclaimer like statement to the effect that “sometimes flu can get bad” and that “there are medications that can sometimes help.” The commercial itself was very, very broad and at least to me did not sound as if it were for a specific medication.

anonymous – at 05:20

This is not new. Roche has been telling people to see their doctor at the first sign of flu for years. The only thing a doctor can do for you, of course, is give you a prescription…and since the more generic antivirals were found to have lost their effectiveness on seasonal flu, the doctor will have to give you a Tamiflu prescription. As people have mentioned, the reason to see a doctor immediately when you suspect the seasonal flu is because you have to take Tamiflu immediately for it to be effective. Another reason why you might go see the doctor is to confirm that it really is the flu and see if there is anything you can do to prevent everyone else in your family from getting it. As I understand it, Tamiflu might help prevent the spread of the flu as well.

I am wondering about folks on here like FloridaGirl who are surprised that people would see the doctor for the flu. I would be surprised if you surprised folks have ever really come down with the flu. The flu is not a bad cold. You feel like you are dying. One time I got the flu and I ended up needing an IV and an antibiotic.

FloridaGirl—You get the flu shot to prevent the flu. But if you don’t get vaccinated or if you still come down with the flu despite getting vaccinated, then the antiviral is available to help you fight it off.

Kathy in FL – at 05:35

anonymous – at 05:20

I’ve had the flu, but never have gone to the doctor for it. We are self-insured so running to the doctor for every ill, especially knowing the likelihood that they can’t give you anything but advice you already know, is out for us.

Don’t get me wrong, doctors are great and when you need them, nothing else will do. I am not anti-medical establishment.

But flu comes in all shapes and sizes. Some folks are more susceptible to the worst systems and some seem to have more resistence.

In the last couple of months our household has dealt with 2 bad episodes of flu that included a stomach element. Yuck. The first was so bad that I did call the doctor … was told don’t come in unless it was absolutely necessary (i.e., uncontrolled fever or dehydration). That the best remedy was rest and to remain hydrated.

The contradictory advice is what kind of drew my attention to the commercial.

Kathy in FL – at 05:36

Sorry for the flub above. “Systems” should read “symptoms.”

DebPat 06:06

I thought just a couple of months ago, there was a study or something that came out, that warned about the over use of tamiflu. They were recommending that docs didn’t prescribe unless really nessecary.

anon_22 – at 06:17

They were recommending that docs didn’t prescribe unless really nessecary.

And they shouldn’t. But try telling that to companies that are selling them….

prepmaniac – at 06:48

The comercials always say “see your doctor” or “Ask your doctor” about every med from treating skin problems to viagra. “Ask your doctor if Cialis is right for you.” That commercial was so vague that I watched it many times and could not figure out what Cialis is for. So, I had to ask my Dr. My dh, If cialis (sp) is right for me. LOL They want Dr. to prescribe the drug, so they try to get patients to ask for it. It keeps the drug in the Dr. mind when someone asks for it too. The commercials always have a diclaimer on the commercials that have I seen. The possible side effects on most things are worse than the problem. IMHO Also, the drug companies are in business and work to make money. Just like everyone else. So, if it is sponsored by a drug co. It is probably to sell something.

The Florida Girl

I have not seen that commercial, but I will look for it now. Thanks for the heads up.

FloridaGirlat 06:49

About the poster: The Florida Girl – at 23:37

anonymous – at 05:2

I am wondering about folks on here like FloridaGirl who are surprised that people would see the doctor for the flu. I would be surprised if you surprised folks have ever really come down with the flu. The flu is not a bad cold. You feel like you are dying. One time I got the flu and I ended up needing an IV and an antibiotic.

I would like to point out that “the FloridaGirl” who is posting here and elsewhere is not “FloridaGirl” who has been here since last year, doing the research stuff, and other things.

I would respectfully request the “The Floridagirl” either add some numbers to her name, or change it in some other way to lessen any confusion.

Thanks…

Green Mom – at 08:50

About a week or two ago I saw in the Louisville Courier-Journal a quarter page ad about seeing your doctor right away if you come down with flu symptons but it was produced by Norton Healthcare- a group of hospitals/clinics in this area. If I remember correctly I think this particular medical group has had some rather serious finacial problems, and I took the ad as a way to drum up some business-which will be rather ironic if they end up turning patients away…….

Regarding Anonymous and the flu- yes I have had the flu a couple of times and yeah, I was pretty miserable, but with proper care-and no complications, you can, as I did ride the flu out at home. Your IV was (probably) for hydration purposes-that is why the docs keep saying “Push the fluids” and antibiotic is not for flu-which is viral, but for secondary bacterial infections-which you often pick up because your defences are down-you are more likly to pick up a secondary infection at the docs office or the hospital.

If youve not had the flu before, you do think your are seriously ill, which you are. But if your not elderly, or have a comprimised immune system, most of the time you can ride it out at home but you have to take care of yourself, you have to drink drink drink and you have to stay home-which is why I get so upset about the “three days or docs note” absentee policy at schools/work because it takes more than three days to recover, but if you go in to the docs office for the stupid note, youve just infected everyone in the office or youve picked up God knows what.

Sorry about the little rant there.

mj – at 09:17

I wonder if it’s runnning in sunny FL because of all the retirees and medicare folks. Perhaps they are more likely to go to the Dr. Ads are usually aimed at a particular group you think will buy.

anonymous – at 09:25

The same television ad ran in Cincinnati Oh when I was watching CSI Miami last week. I thinking they are gearing up for what is to come. In advertising you start early.

crfullmoon – at 09:39

Wush there had been commercial pointing out that if people have travelled to H5N1 areas and are sick on return they are to ‘call first and say so, not show up at a doctor’s office or ER, (not that places were ready to respond to those calls, last year nor probably now).

http://www.cdc.gov/travel/other/avian_influenza_se_asia_2005.htm

(…”However, a few cases of limited person-to-person spread of H5N1 viruses have been reported, with no instances of transmission continuing beyond one person.”… humph!)

…”if you become ill while abroad. You should defer further travel until you are free of symptoms, unless traveling locally for medical care. “…

(how many travellers read this?)

…”After your return, Monitor your health for 10 days. If you become ill with a fever plus a cough, sore throat, or trouble breathing during this 10-day period, consult a health-care provider. Before you visit a health-care setting, tell the provider the following: 1) your symptoms, 2) where you traveled, and 3) if you have had direct contact with poultry or close contact with a severely ill person. This way, he or she can be aware that you have traveled to an area reporting avian influenza.

Do not travel while ill, unless you are seeking medical care. Limiting contact with others as much as possible can help prevent the spread of an infectious illness. “

crfullmoon – at 09:40

wush=wish and no proofreader…sheesh :-/

crfullmoon – at 09:42

And it isn’t going to pick up contact with a contagious person before they act sick, which is why I’m afraid we’ll get no pandemic notice, since they won’t discourage non-essential travel.

The Florida Girl – at 13:01

Its me TheFloridaGirl, sorry for the name confusion. I will change it to TheFloridaGirl8.

OKbirdwatcherat 14:05

Green Mom at 08:50 -

Rant on. It’s utter stupidity. But, again, it’s all about the money. If a child is absent from school, the school loses funds. I get where their priorities are.

nsthesia – at 17:21

I’m in FL also and I’ve seen the ads, both on TV and in print. I also thought it curious. I would have thought conservation of what antiviral meds we do have would be a good thing. Plus, cavalier utilization should be avoided.

So, I assumed that since “there is no such thing as bad publicity”, that R***e was just getting their name out there and making sure their drug was connected with influenza, so it becomes a commonplace drug to the public. Makes sense to me.

I am surrounded by HCWs on a daily basis, and you would be surprised how many mention seeing that ad in print. Those same ones that don’t like hearing about panflu, have taken notice of these antiviral ads all of a sudden with unease.

People are asking why are these ads appearing now? I just look knowingly and say maybe it’s time you should start paying attention to what’s going on in Indonesia and China…

As for coping with seasonal influenza, each individual will handle it differently. So, to someone in good health, it may mean a couple weeks of misery, but that’s about it. To another, depending on age and health status, it can be life-threatening. Our population is aging and often obese. A large percentage are now presenting with asthma, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease. I take nothing for granted in our aging population. I tell patients they know their bodies better than anyone else. Seek early intervention if you have concern.

Orlandopreppie – at 17:44

My husband and I were watching a primetime TV show either Tuesday or Wednesday evening when a government sponsored commercial came on. It was about the flu, and had a bunch of animated dancing penguins in it. We looked at each other and commented on the real intent. I don’t recall ever seeing anything about flu in prior years but it could just be me. Oh, I’m in Central Florida. I wish they’d do more, how about a commercial with the theme “Have you got your two?” referring to their paltry two weeks preparation of food and water. At least it would be a start.

enza – at 20:04

Sorry guys I typed that in wrong, should be reddinet.

FloridaGirlat 20:09

TheFloridaGirl8

Thank you… It is much appreciated!

About the ads… I haven’t seen them, but two things come to mind. Florida has a lot of people who travel overseas…

The second thing… The flu surveillence program that Florida set up to monitor flu, will also be the same surveillence system that will monitor the occurrance of a pandemic flu. Monitoring the flu season and identifying the flu type is something that occurs in the ER, (certain) physician offices, (certain) walk in clinics, etc. This gives the counties an idea of disease prevalence. This information is also relayed to the CDC, because flu is now a reportable disease.

banshee – at 20:12

Orlandopreppie – at 17:44, I saw that PSA/ad as well. I think the penguins are from a new animated movie - Happy Feet? I thought it was kind of a strange pairing, penguins and the flu. I also don’t ever remember seeing PSAs on flu before.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Roses Preparation List for Mid-Level Self Sufficiency Part 2

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Roses Preparation List for Mid-Level Self Sufficiency Part 2

10 June 2006

BroncoBillat 00:42

Great thread continued from here.

08 October 2006

anonymous – at 03:27

I give up. I’ll never get all of the items from that huge list … unless someone would sell it as a whole. And I thought I were a good prepper since I had Tamiflu. Maybe fluwiki should assign diplomas or medals to preppers : gold,silver,bronze. Who’s the world’s best prepper actually ?

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 04:04

Anon, I’m Rose, and I don’t have it all either!!! It’s just a list — a guide to help you think through YOUR particular circumstances and decide what you might need. You might add some basic stuff this month, then keep adding those things till you build up a good stock of it, then start with something else and improve on that area but it would take an 18 wheeler or two just to HOLD all that stuff.

Don’t think of it as all “have to haves” but think of it as “be aware ofs” and decide what parts of it are right for you. Print the list out, blacken out the things you really aren’t interested in, then put the paper in a plastic page protector & you can then use dry wipe markers to check off what you have or make notes on what you want to get. Just don’t let it scare you.

11 October 2006

Madamspinner – at 21:34

I started about 6 months ago; got the main food in first. To me, that’s water, bleach, salt, Jasmine Rice by the 100 weight, and lots of B-1 vitamins to go with all that rice, and dry cat food & litter for my “better half “ ; just in case the BF caught me before I was done with my preps. Now things are looking more balanced. But I still have some things marked “C” for Critical…..

Whenever I feel like I’m “finished”; I’ll go back to the beginning and start thru my listing again.

KimTat 21:45

I started back in March, I sure don’t have all that stuff. I still go thru the list check off what I have, that feels good because when I first printed out the list, it was overwhelming. Everytime I go to the store I pick up something. Tonight I hit walmart to order my daughters contacts and picked up more propane. I picked up 10 tonight, a few extra wicks for my oil lamps and I couldn’t resist another bottle of oil. Oh and got another sleeping bag rated for below 0 and mats for the tents in case I need to set them up and sleep in them for warmth.

Last week it was the dollar store and canned food. I also got a cd for working out to get a few pounds off my midsection, now all i have to do is pop it in and actually get on my exercise equipment, hmmm we need to come up with a way to burn more calories while on the wiki.

12 October 2006

peggy – at 06:11

Don’t forget products for controlling pests - mouse and rat traps, fly paper, ant traps, mosquito repellant, flea and tick meds for pets, maybe some lice treatment, etc. Also, enzyme solution sold at pet stores for eliminating urine odor also works on all biological odors. Imagine going through a long, hot summer with people, pets, maybe sickness, and no electricity, etc. That enzyme stuff could be priceless.

23 October 2006

LizBat 12:19

“* unbreakable thermometer, digital or disposable ones “

There’s a new one out, no batteries, works like the old glass but it’s plastic and a lot wider (and non-mercury liquid inside). I got one at walgreens several months ago, about $5.

meals per month - just a detail, but 3 months is 13 weeks, not 12 weeks, so the meal count is a bit short. most months are 4 weeks plus 2 or 3 days.

My current interest, ranking above solar power even, is things to have on hand to do stop-gap repairs to house. Tree falls, makes hole in roof, might be a month or more before anyone can help = big tarp and nails - occurred to me last night maybe I also need some lumber strips to hold down the edges of the tarp so the tarp is between lumber and roof? So tarp doesn’t tear through the nails?

Is there a book on temporary home repairs until someone who knows what he is doing shows up a month or two later?

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 12:22

LizB, thanks for catching the error in my math! I need to go back to counting on my fingers!

Nice tip on the thermometers — I’m going to check that out!

Reader’s Digest has a home repair book, see if you can locate it online on Amazon & take a look inside — maybe it would cover the type repairs you’re talking about!

Rose

EnoughAlreadyat 12:29

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 04:04

Oh my gosh! You are Rose! How cool is that!! That has made my day. I figured Rose was sitting up somewhere all prepped and doing whatever a mythical prepped to the hilt person does… but you… I know are constantly working on it! whew.

crfullmoon – at 12:31

(note to self; check the “For Dummies” titles when passing bookstore today)

I bet the post-Katrina Gulf Coasters learned what stop-gap measures do and don’t work….

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 12:37

EnoughAlready – at 12:29 ….but you… I know are constantly working on it! whew.

Darlin’ you have me laughing so hard I may split my sides! :-)

I’m not only constantly workin’ on it (hence the nickname) I’m constantly BEHIND in it!!!

Canning pintos this AM with a canner that needs a new seal (why does that always happen when you get on a roll?) so I’m online shopping for 2 — one to replace and a spare for the replacement!

Meantime, had to cancel the bug spray man — too many things sittin’ around in the floor — the poor man would NOT be able to find an inch to spray no matter how hard he tried.

Had to defrost an auto defrost freezer last night so I have 3 huge coolers sitting in the floor drying out — gotta be careful with that or they’ll mold inside, AND I have 3 big cast iron pots on the kitchen counter waiting to be cleaned and reseasoned….at least they’re not in the attic anymore!

And today’s our 13th anniversary and I haven’t even bought my sweet hubby a card yet……we’re getting solar lighting for our present. How’s THAT for romantic???

Yep, I’m always workin’ on it.

EnoughAlreadyat 13:10

LOL! I didn’t even connect the dots on your workin on it name! I’m doing nothing today. It can stay stacked up around here today, and stay on the shelves at the stores… today… I have declared a day off! I have been working my fanny off with those mylar bags! I’m meeting my daughter for lunch, and worrying about this later!

HAPPY ANNIVERSARY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

PS> I’ve been watching what y’all are doin’ on those alternate energy threads. I keep hoping and praying I figure something on them out. sigh I think the solar lighting may turn out to be really romantic down the road! Heck, it would certainly put me in a huggy-huggy, smoochey-smoochey mood today… if I were getting anything solarized! What a relief it must be.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 13:31

hehehe….I found 2 spotlights on eBay (along with a couple of other things) & 2 on Costco — haven’t ordered them yet. I want to see how the first 2 work out first!

Sailor – at 16:41

LizB – at 12:19

Costco up in Alberta has a home repair book that looked good.

Kim – at 16:50

I’m working on it, here’s a tip on those coolers you’re trying to dry out. I always store my coolers with a sponge stuck in between the lid and the body of the cooler. That way you can store them away even if they’re still damp inside and don’t have to worry about mold and bad smells building up.

Sailor – at 17:02

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 13:31

I bought some of the “motion sensor solar security lites” from Costco and have one mounted about 12ft. up in the air under a over hang as these lites are not water proof. They only have a 10 watt halogen light but they work very well and the motion sensor is the best I have used. So in short I would recomend them. I have no intrest’s in this company.

Green Mom – at 18:52

I’m also glad to know that Workin’on’it and Rose are the same ! COOL! Happy Anniversary!

Last Spring, for our Anniversary, Hubby and I went to Afternoon movie matinee and Chinese buffet, then we went to Big Lots for prep items!

If y’all are close to a BIG LOTS check it out-they are an overstock/discontinued store. Anyway, we have found quite a few handy prep items there-solar lights, battery rechargers, LED mag lights. just all kinds of stuff.

 regarding home repair books-try brousing through your library first to see if you find some you like-it would save you some bucks rather than buy something and decide its too simple/complicated to use.  Or if you see something on Amazon-get a copy through Inner -library loan, to see if you like it before ordering-Im doing that with some cookbooks. 

KimT the sponge is a great idea, and Ive also sprinkled some baking soda to absorb oders/dampness. If you have a silica gel pac-(those little pacs they put in new shoes and vitimins)-those are handy for coolers too.

This weeks prep-other than a major shopping trip mid-week is completly cleaning my house-because while I’m not going to have my house sprayed for bugs-I do have too much stuff sitting on the floor. and the cabinets, and and the coffee tables, and basically where-ever there is a moderntly flat surface. Blah. I had thought about waiting til we SIP-more time, but on second thought I thought it would be easier to do it now with electric and hot water.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 19:56

Well, I love Big Lots — as a matter of fact, I have a reminder in my microsoft outlook calendar that pops up every Tuesday to remind me that the truck at Big Lots comes on Tuesdays so that I can plan to head out on Wednesday or Thursday if I’m inclined to do any shopping in that direction.

I bought 2 solar battery chargers, both charge all 4 sizes of batteries but one has a meter that takes up part of the top, and the other has a full top of ‘panels’. don’t know which will work best.

The solar lights are weather resistant with a 16′ cord to the panel and I just opened the box and they’re distributed through Harbor Freight!! They’ll turn on up to 150 times a night and you can adjust the time that they stay on (motion at 20 seconds each time for 150 times or can be set up to 2 minutes). I figure the raccoons that pass through will burn up up if we’re not careful!

It’s a 10 watt, not very much, but should be some good since it has a big reflector all around it. I’m hoping I won’t be too disappointed. It will adjust from 3 to 2000 lux if that means anything to anyone.

Now I’ve got to find 6 volt, 10 watt 30mm bulb replacements for it!

I also broke down and bought 2 little crystal wall sconces that match our overhead light in the dining room. DH told me to but we’d had such high vet bills with two deaths of my fur-babies I hated to spend frivously, but he said again to buy them so I did.

Kim – at 21:02

I’m workin on it, here’s a simplified explanation of lux from wikipedia:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lux

.00005 lux = Starlight

1 lux = Moonlight

10 lux = Candle at a distance of 30 cm (1 ft)

400 lux = A brightly lit office

400 lux = Sunrise or sunset on a clear day

1000 lux = Typical TV studio lighting

32000 lux = Sunlight on an average day (min.)

100000 lux = Sunlight on an average day (max.)

Urdar-Norway – at 21:05

that list… that list is… its… i think its… it is veryyy……big

:D

Michigan Mom – at 22:33

I’m-workin’-on-it Today I was asked if I could prepare a list of items that might be needed in a pandemic—well let me tell you that when I quit laughing I said of course the work has already been done!!!!!!!!! I will definately give you all the credit for the list. Between you Goju and all the others on FW I am prepared to hand out, discuss and encourage. Ithought I was retired but it’s back to work for me helping med. sized groups (15–25). Thanks for EVERYONE’S hard work I am sure the lurking will go up very soon. Just think of it-the efforts and the affect of FW!!!

24 October 2006

Malachi – at 08:10

Way to go MI Mom!!!!I bet you would be bored just hanging out in retirement anyways ;)

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 15:35

Michigan Mom – at 22:33 PLEASE make the mathmatical correction mentioned above in the number of meals…..I don’t know how to change it on the list — maybe I can ask a mod to change it — I’m afraid I’d screw it up!

Feel free to use it any way you like!

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 15:46

Kim – at 21:02 very helpful list— thanks soooooo much!!

02 November 2006

chillindame – at 17:10

Regarding Dutch Ovens… has anyone bought one yet? I just received in the mail an outdoorsman type catalog (can’t think of the name right now) and they are advertising an outdoor dutch oven. It caught my eye because it claims you can bake with it. It is basically made up of three cast iron bowls that when you change the positions of them allow you to do different types of cooking. Any opinions?

Green Mom – at 17:21

Chillingdame- that sounds soooo cooool! If you can afford it, I’d get it-cast iron can be pricey. Does it have legs? My dh bought me one for christmas a few years back, but mine is flat on bottom to be used mostly inside on a flat range. I’d love to get one with legs to put over a fire. I have cooked outside with my flat one, just put a grate up on rocks, and it worked quite well. Havn’t baked in it much because I also have a couple of cast iron skillets/pans that I bake in, though I did make a very good, (if I say so myself) cheesecake in my dutch oven. I’m a huge fan of cast iron. I would be tempted to get this myself-we probably get that catalog-wouldn’t be Cabela’s by any chance? And an outdoor dutch oven is on my list but since I have one that I can use, there are other items I need to purchase first.

fredness – at 19:01

Rose or anyone, do you have you list in a spreadsheet. I did one long ago. I have not updated it in a long time. http://home.san.rr.com/earlybird/Emergency%20Kit.xls

There are also 3–4 prep lists already here. It would be useful to merge the lists. There is also a good food calculator here (see [[http://fluwikie.com/index.php?n=Main.Index |FluWiki Index}).

Of course we can’t afford it all but it helps to give this boundaries and prevent redundacy of work if we can share our time invested. That is why we are here, right? Anyone willing to collaborate on this task?

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 19:28

fredness – at 19:01 There ARE several lists here, partly because they are for different reasons — a fast 24 hours to pull some things together type list, one that 2 adults with a pet like my husband and me might use, to a quasi survivalist type list. (not to be read that my husband is a pet up above—just bad sentence structure). I made my list years ago but when I got here and worked up my sickroom supplies section & incorporated it into my list, I also included several things from Owl’s list & others I’d found, but I only added things that I felt my lifestyle and budget and space in my home would relly allow.

So, are you proposing to combine all these lists to make one all encompassing list so that for instance individual items under the heading of safety are ranked by “only 24 hours” items first then “average family would have” items next, to “surivalist” items listed last? And each section would have that type ranking or are you just wanting to combine all sections at random to make one massive list that someone would print through and select their choices from?

I don’t have mine on a spreadsheet, just in Word — I just added columns to the right and printed the pages, put each in a page protector and then I use a dry wipe to check off what I’ve already gotten, write a notation about something I want to get in the future, etc.

What are your ideas of how a combined list would be used?

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Wyoming Preppers

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Wyoming Preppers

12 March 2006

WyomingBill RN – at 09:40

Years ago, a national early morning talk show weather person once commented on an abyssmal winter storm out here, adding, “but that’s all right, because no one lives there.” Let’s find out.

Cody-Powell area here, wife and three daughters (I’m the quiet one), Critical care and Emergency nursing. As close to this Hobbit’s liking as can be found.

“It’s a dangerous business, Frodo, going out of your door. You step on to the Road, and if you don’t keep your feet, there is no knowing where you might be swept off to.” My sentiments, indeed. Regards!

Grace RN – at 10:06

Hey WyomingBill RN, nice to talk to you again. On a prior post you noted that some LDS were lookingat land in your area; arethey still doing that? Have they bought any? And, how decent are you land prices? (currently trapped in NJ, but love the great outdoors)

How far is your commute to work?

WyomingBill RN – at 10:29

Thanks, Grace! Caught pneumonia in early January, toughed it out for a month before caving in and seeing my internist (pride is an inconvenient thing…)still feel like a broke a rib.

This whole area has had a large LDS population since the early 1900′s; they made irrigation possible throught this are where we only get 10 inches of rain a year (less the last few)-a survey at the local high school showed 84% of the students were LDS, and probably that proportion of our neighbors are, if I had to guess. Nice folks, and we have great rapport.

Land prices? Best to let you look: http://www.codyenterprise.com/classifieds/?loc=detail&main=Real%20Estate .I guess they’re impressive by NJ standards.

The commute is about 1/4 of a cup of coffee to Cody and 3/4 of a cup to Powell; 15–20 minutes max door to door. For a work environment, personally Powell can’t be beat, though Cody’s OK, too. Give em a look-will give you a tour of the sights if you want to visit…

Grace RN – at 10:43

Sorry you were so ill; nurses do make bad patients! Sounds like heaven on earth! And such good neighbors.

A building lot where I live, 100′x100′ goes for $125,000+. New homes on tiny lots are considered poor for under $300K. And almost all the new homes here have 2 brand new SUV’s parked outside.

If I could talk the hubby into it, would love to take you up on your generous offer. Are the hospitals in your area doing any panflu planning?

WyomingBill RN – at 11:11

At my hospital (about 250 staff), Respiratory Therapy is the only group who’s expressed any interest; most of the MD’s know liitle about pandemic flu in general and H5N1 in particular-have tons of info that I’m going to be distributing to different groups, and have ordered some “Ask me about Bird Flu” buttons, one of which I plan to wear, solo-THAT will give a true idea as to how indifference/support/denial there really is. One table-top exercise about a year ago, then nothing. Hope to have better luck generating interest with the patient base through the buttons, and let that filter back to the administration and clinics.

In 1989, we paid $69,000 for a 2500 sq. foot bilevel, two acres of land, 5 bedrooms and a walk in root cellar- my ‘Bag-End;’ That’s why Tolkien has a special meaning. Afraid to go anywhere else, but always open to visitors. There’s a saying for folk who live near Yellowstone-we have 9 months of winter, and three months of company :=)

Grace RN – at 11:24

WyomingBillRN-the buttons are a good idea. At my place of work- a large university based hospital in Philadelphia, I’d likely get terminated for wearing them.

You were smart to get your home and land when you did. We have a 1800 sq foot 2 story 4 BR 1.5 bath on about 1/3 acre that cost us $29,000 in 1976; we’ve wanted to move, but needless to say, the housng/lands costs have risen faster than our salaries or equity! :(

9 months of winter- certainly not for the weak of heart!

28 May 2006

SuzyQWYat 23:33

I am just wondering what Wyoming people think this state is doing and if they are taking this serious. I know our paper doesn’t say anything. I live in northern Wyoming and I know if this does become H2H, thing are going to get like a bad never ending blizzard and the stores are going to empty out fast. Lot of people live here in campers and motels because of the housing shortage. Just wanted to hear from other Wyoming people.

29 May 2006

WyomingBill RN – at 17:34

Hi, SuzyQ!

Glad you posted here-I’ve followed your posts the past month with some interest; have known for the longest there was someone else in this state, just couldn’t prove it. Was thinking of joining the Idaho or Montana boards, but now its official. Wyoming has two-now we are somebody (an old Steve Martin bit from “The Jerk” comes to mind-just need a phone book). There are still others; as I saw a post or two a couple months back from attendees to Mike Leavitt’s conference in Cheyenne, unless they’re sneaking in from from Colorado; we need a fence (Centennial State friends-I’m kidding. Watch me smile… ;=) .

Your post above made me do some reading; I’ve had a copy of Wyoming’s pandemic plan (at least the current, second draft) and sat down last night to read it-very interesting and very specific-and it’s only 58 pages. Here’s the link: http://wdh.state.wy.us/epiid/wpirp.pdf .I would highly recommend printing and becoming familiar with it. For one, there are locations for mass immunization centers in each county. The plan has different phases which are implemented according to the current WHO phase (A WHO phase 3-Pandemic alert-triggers Wyoming phase 2 (out of 6) plan, or early pandemic alert. There’s also alot about vaccine security. It takes about an hour to read, but I feel much better informed. Thanks for the prompt.

People here in Park county largely have only a vague awareness of the problem or are just plain lacadaisical; alot of people here, like there, store supplies to the hilt anyway-it is the forgotten state, land of perpetual ice and snow, (my oldest daughter at age 6 wanted to know if she’d see igloos here, as that’s what grandpa told her to expect); there has been no real mention in the Cody paper, or any other area newspapers, though Powell had a good write-up last week that indicates some concern from the editor, at least. I’ve seen some articles in the Casper paper, but that’s about it. At my hospital there is no preparation to speak of. Last year there was a state-directed tabletop excercise that drew a half dozen attendees, and last month there was a bird flu poster outside the ER, which has since been taken down. The only interest I can find is with Respiratory Therapy and some of the EMS folks, but none among the department heads. As posted above, I’ve worn an ‘Ask Me About Bird Flu” button the last couple of months steady, and have only garnered a couple of comments from patients and staff. Oh, and a couple of inquiries as to where the televisions are at Wal-Mart (“Sorry, I’m just looking.” “Oh.”).

I’m hoping that’s about to change. I’ve done a QI (quality improvement) study for the hospital which I’m going to submit in the next week re: the amount of PPE’s (personal protective equipment) we have in inventory, and it’s sufficiency for dealing with a single 90 day pandemic wave; am seriously considering posting it under a seperate thread for peer review. In short, a week or less supply of gowns, N-95′s and surgical masks. Gloves almost stretch the full term, but allow only one change per day-am still revising the math but it’s looking grim (maybe NBC Dateline can do a special on this).

Last month I attended a talk by Donal O’Toole, Deartment head of Veterinary Sciences at the U of Wy and Director of the Wyoming State Vet Lab. He spoke of the near certainty of avian flu arriviing in North ASmerica, of plans to test over 1000 wild birds in the state this year, currents state of the disease around thje world and other related topics; when I asked him what steps individuals should take now, before the advent of H5N1 on our shores, he looked surprised and gave a one word answer-“Nothing.” When the time came, Wyoming Department of Health would issue such instructions as necessary. There were about 30 atendees; almost all where Audubon Society members.

Hope all is well there; stay the course.

anon – at 21:42

You’re right. There ARE other preppers in WY. Currently staying under the radar, but prepping along.

31 May 2006

SuzyQWYat 22:35

Thanks for the post. It amazes me how you read other city, not in Wyoming, that are taking this serious. I have seen 2 very small articles in our newspaper on the back page. I live in Campbell County which is having a huge population boom due to the power plants and methane gas. I see a lot of people living in motels and campers that no way would survive for any long period of time. I know our hospital isn’t at all prepared for what could happen. I have talked to family and tried to get them to prepare and they are so stubborn and dumb that they think as long as you don’t eat chicken you can’t catch it. Some think I am wacko that they won’t even talk to me. It don’t bother me, but It will be hard when they are needing help to have to turn them down because we are preparing for us, family of 5 to think about. I can’t stock for 20 more people. We are hunters and I guess if nothing else we can hunt to feed all of them. I am preparing for one family member that will come and stay because she has health problems and lives alone in an apartment. She will be taken care of. I have a very small house and couldn’t support to many.

01 June 2006

Frontier RN – at 10:44

There are some in Wyoming who are following the advancing storm of avian flu closely. We are reading much and saying little on these blogs. The Wyoming Department of Health and the county public health offices have been working for some time now to develop plans to meet the threat. In my county, we (PH) have been trying to educate the public for several months. We have been recommending that everyone prepare to be able to self quarantine for several weeks (months if you can afford it). We’ve been stressing the importance of handwashing, good respiratory hygiene, staying home if sick, etc. to minimize exposure. We are designing a home study course to teach home care of the sick in a disaster. We’ve put articles in our local papers periodically now for several months. We’ve taken presentations to over 1000 people by way of civic organizations, local government agencies, churchs, clubs, etc. And just recently we’ve started to organize local Pandemic Flu Community Task Forces made up of local government, utilities, law enforcement, emergency management, health care providers, schools, and others. Our hospitals are aware of the threat and are working with us to the degree they can. With limited resources and staff they do the best they can.

It’s a challenge to present the threat in a clear, balanced way. We were asked to prepare for smallpox, or some other bioterrorist attack and since those have not yet happened, it’s important that we share our message in such a way that we do not lose credibility.

As are most counties in Wyoming, we a large in land and small in population. Many plans assume many hands to get the job done. In our situation, many people wear many hats and we have to scale our plans down to what we can actually expect to be able to do. Hence we feel that empowering the people to be able to take care of themselves is what we can do best. Knowledge is power. I would advise checking with your local PH office - ask for the PH Response Coordinator for information about how you can help. If not enough is being done - perhaps your concern will prompt more action. And as we always stress - any preparations we make for a pandemic won’t be wasted. It’s a good idea to be prepared for any out of the ordinary event.

All in all - I would not want to be anywhere else in the world than our beautiful wild Wyoming. My husband and I also hunt, fish and love the outdoors and our small ranch and animals. Our neighbors and friends are private people, but in a pinch we pull together. Our challenging land and climate encourage the strong to stay here and not only survive but thrive. Keep up the good work you’re doing to prepare and look out for each other!

SuzyQWYat 23:00

I just wish our local paper would publish more for people to be aware of what is going on. I know a lot of people that do not have the internet and they have been watching the paper for information and they haven’t seen any. I think the newspaper should devote a flyer in the paper telling people about what is going on and how to prepare for the possiblity. I believe the more informed the less stress there could be on our local authorities.

02 November 2006

any news from Wyoming – at 18:00

What news from the West, wily Wyomingas?

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Anyone in Utah

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Anyone in Utah

09 February 2006

SRC84117at 23:55

Hi—

Is there anyone here from the Salt Lake City area? I’m in Holladay, and I was wondering if there is anyone who can tell me a bit about the LDS “canning” program.

10 February 2006

anonymous – at 01:12
anonymous – at 01:15

I know a little about the program - I have been a couple of times to the cannery in Sandy. What, specifically were you wondering about?

SRC84117at 01:39

How does it work? I was baptized long ago (so I’m technically still a member), but I also stopped attending long ago. Do they let inactive members use the facilities? I called Welfare Services and they told me that “walk ins” were welcome for “dry packing”, but that I had to come as part of a ward group for the wet stuff. When I asked her if a walk in included inactive members, she wasn’t sure (apparently not a lot of inactive members volutarily show up there). I also understand that if you go, you buy the materials (foodstuff and canning materials) there.

Do you have any idea of what it is that they pack (the “dry stuff”)? I’ve shied away from doing thins like unground wheat and barley so far, since that’s pretty foreign to the way we live and I fell that coping wtih the general problems of the pandemice will be enough, rather than focusing on an entirely new way of cooking.

Allquietonthewesternfront – at 01:43

Weird that they didn’t know about inactives. Of course they are welcome. So are non-members. You just need to schedule either with them or call the local bishop and he will connect you up with all the info you need. Also, you either can what they have, or bring your own dry stuff to can, or both. You just let them know so they can have the number 10 cans available and also whatever on their list you want to can.

anonymous – at 02:32

Unless the policy has changed recently, you don’t have to be active to use the facilities. I worked for the Church as a manager in the Welfare dept for close to 20 years in a different division, and we assisted many non-members, not to mention in-active members.

I would suggest that you call one of the storehouses directly (page 46 of the business section of the current DEX phone book under Bishop’s Storehouses in the right hand column) and ask for a manager ( or just go in to one and ask). My guess is that their answer would depend largely on the availablity of openings based on how busy they are. I think that it is probably true about the walk-in dry pack and wet pack. It may help to find out what ward you live in because they may ask you to sign in. Again, I don’t think you have to be active, or even a member. If you don’t know what ward you live in, you can ask a neighbor who you know is LDS, or call the general Church Office Building phone number ( it is the very first number on page 45 ending in 1000), and ask to find out what ward you are in based on your address, or you can look it up on the Church website.

You do pay for the materials and supplies, but they are usually at cost. There is some variety to the dry pack supplies, but they are fairly basic if I remember right. They have a list with prices there which I think they will just let you take. You can just walk in and get the list and talk to whoever is supervising the drypack area at the time.

In order to do the wet pack, I think you do need to fit in with your ward’s schedule. Each ward should have a ward member (canning specialist) who coordinates the scheduling and communication in their ward. Again, neighbors who are LDS or the Bishop ( obtain contact info by calling same number above) in your ward can direct you to that person.

Most of the dry pack is bulk supplies which can form a core supply of emergency food stock, but after we have that emergency core, I prefer to focus on non-perishable items from weekly sales at the area grocery stores. I know that our family will always eat them, where I feel like we may never eat some of the bulk supplies unless there is a true emergency and we are forced to resort to them.

SRC84117at 09:31

Thank you for the information. I’ll call today.

DRS – at 16:59

Don’t forget to mention that there are also canneries throughout the US. I live in WA, and there is a cannery in Kent. I have been told, though, that they do not allow you to bring your own food to can because they have had problems with infestation from outside foods, so you might have to ask the individual canneries to see if they allow you to can your own foods.

04 May 2006

Rosie – at 08:49

Hi, I am in Utah too, West Jordan to be exact. Thanks all for the info on LDS cannerys, I didnt know non-members were welcome. I will call today about it. Im fairly new to large scale prepping and have almost 6 months ready for my family of 5. Im sure I have missed some things but I think about it everyday almost to the point of obsessing to try to cover everything. I have always felt more comfortable with a large and well stocked pantry that rotates regularly but I now have food everywhere! I have most of the basics covered; beans, rice, flour, yeast, sugar, canned fruits and vegetables and am now trying to focus on the stuff my family will actually like. Has anyone else in Utah checked out Moos Farms? Its a bulk food storage and supplies store. They seem reasonably priced and Ive bought quite a bit from them, enough that I had to have my son bring his truck in addition to mine. Can anyone comment on whether the Mormon church is pushing the food storage in preparation for bird flu? I am planning a huge veg garden this year and will even stick as many veg in flower beds as possible instead of annuals. Im lucky that I have a yard to do it in although I wish it was acres bigger, as it is (1/4 acre) I have to consider at all times basketball room, bike room, soccer room and just general room for 3 teen and pre-teen boys. Otherwise my garden gets basketballed, biked and soccered. I also consider myself lucky to live in Utah not just as the most beautiful state in the country but as a place where food storage and prepping for any disaster is the norm. Noone looks at me funny when I have 2 flat carts at Sams completely loaded or when I buy 24 cans of manderin oranges on sale at Reams and then stop by 2 other times that day to get the limit of 24 again. Well, maybe they did look at me funny that time. Mostly I think people see the boys I have pushing carts and so they dont wonder about the amount of food I purchase. Im hoping to connect with other Utah preppers to share information on best deals, water storage etc. Rosie

3L120 – at 11:02

While having a high percentage of residents prepping on a constant basis, the downside, here in Utah, is the powers to be think everyone does it and that extraneous planning and stockpiling by local agencies is not as necessary.

But, I wil check out the local supplyhouses. When you say the ‘basics’ are we talking grains or?

Rosie – at 11:20

Thats a good point 3L120 about TPTB thinking everyone stockpiles, I hadnt thought of it that way. I thought we would be better prepared because they would all listen more closely to Mike Leavitt as would citizens of Utah. My basics consist of beans, rice, flour, yeast, sugar, oatmeal in big food grade buckets that I will decant into smaller units for kitchen use, canned tuna and chicken, spam and a ton of canned veg and fruit. As much water as I have room for and I want to pick up a few 50 gallon water storage drums. I have also recently added “just add water” biscuit and cookie mixes also in those big buckets, freeze dried potato slices, dried cheese sauce, canned brown sugar, flax seed. I have lots of tp and paper towels but it never seems like enough and I worry about what I have read about mice getting into the stacks so I have to do something about that. I am worried about forgetting something basic and check my lists against everyone elses and the master lists on Wiki to help with that. The best prices I have foudn are at Sams or Moos farm which is at about 5th east and 3440 south just west of I15. The other bulk food supply store (which will remain nameless because I cant remember the name) seems a bit more on the items I have compared but they definately carry more gear, Moos is just food.

src84111 – at 11:39

Rosie—Glad to hear there are other Utahns (Utites?) around. I’m from Holladay. I’ve mostly been prepping at Costco, but I’ll check out Moos. We’re a family of three (12 year old son, Mom and Dad), but we’ve also made preps for my wife’s parents, who are in their 80s and not in great health. My wife and son put up with my prepping, but consider the possibility of anything serious happening as pretty slim (“It may happen somewhere, but it won’t ever happen in the US and, if it does, it won’t be any different that when polio was around in the 50s, so STOP buying stuff!”).

I’m at work now, but when I get some time I’ll give you my thoughts on the local prepping/political scene. I was baptized LDS long ago, and haven’t stepped into a ward house for about 20 years, so I’m not as knowledgeable about the current OFFICIAL church policy on prepping as I could be.

Rosie – at 12:22

src8111, Id like to hear your thoughts. Utah can be a frustrating place to live given the political climate, especially for a very liberal minded person like myself. My family puts up with my prepping the same as yours, they mostly think Im crazy. Oh well, its kind of like insurance, we might never need it but if we do it would really suck to not have it. I cant, as a single mom, not prep. I would not be able to live with myself if this does happen and I didnt prepare for children.

src84111 – at 12:49

Rosie—I talked my wife (during one of her rare cooperative periods) into going with me to the LDS dry packing facility at Welfare Square one day. We showed up unannounced in the middle of the afternoon, told them that we’d heard a bit about the program and that we’d like to know more. They asked if we wanted to do some canning that afternoon. They showed us how to do it (it’s very simple, really), and we spent the next hour or so filling number 10 cans with powdered milk, pudding, potato buds (amazing things, in case you haven’t tried them), rice and other stuff. We left with about 25 cans, and (based on my shopping experience at Costco) spent about 1/3 of what the stuff would have cost at a local volumn purchase store. We’re not really the “flour, salt and sugar” storage types (I’ve been sticking mostly to tuna, soups, and packaged stuff that we normally use), but it’s nice to have a small stash of the basics that we can fall back on if we run out of the other stuff (or if I get bored during isolation and start experimenting with real cooking). We’re trying to figure out if we know any LDS members well enough to accompany them to a “wet packing” session (that’s where the real goldmine is—canned chicken and turkey, applesauce and jams, etc.). If you’re looking for the basics, you might want to try the dry pack cannery. The other nice thing is that, becasue you put it up in cans and use oxygen depletion packets, it’s good for several years.

If you mention that you’re not LDS but that you’re interested in the canning program, they tend to be very forgiving about dropping by unannounced. It’s really a great program, and I can see why LDS families make it a regular part of their lives.

Rosie – at 13:29

Wow, thanks for the info. I have neighbors that are LDS (dont we all in Utah?) that I will ask about the wet pack. Is it scheduled by ward or can they go anytime? Do you know if I can go to a bishops storehouse and buy stuff? I have wondered about that for a long time but have never tried. I like to cook and use basics regularly so I know my stuff will be used. Bread is easy, biscuits are even easier, dry milk is new to me but I have read that you can flavor it. Im excited now to try the canning. You could buy all different stuff not just what you canned? Jam I do myself but the meats Im afraid to home can so Ive been buying them and they are soooo expensive!

Rosie – at 13:31

Correction, Morning Moos is on 5th WEST not east and 3440 south. I dont knwo how to edit my earlier post at 11:20

src84111 – at 13:50

I think the wet packing is scheduled by stakes, and they only do one item at a time when they go (they apparently did chicken in April, and they did some kind of jam in February). When you go to the dry pack place, you can only get the dry materials. They have about 20 different things (tow or three kinds of wheat, flour, rice, potattoes, carrots, onions, puddings, beans, etc.), and you choose what you want to pack, pack it yourself and then pay for it like you were at the grocery store. You wear gowns and shower caps, and you have to clean up after yourself when you’re done (they have the brooms, dustpans, etc there). I suspect that people only can what they want to buy when they do the dry pack stuff, but that when they do the wet pack stuff they work as part of an assembly line and the group might end up with more product than the packers want to buy. When we did the dry pack they let us buy a case of jam that they had wet packed a day or two before but that no one else had bought. I don’t know if they were just being nice or if that’s the official policy.

I think the other stuff at the bishop’s store house (diapers, commercilly canned corn, soups, Corn Flakes, etc.) are reserved for people who can show an economic need to get them from the storhouse. I don’t know the procedure or the means or income test that they use, but I do know that they have several warehouses of products all over the valley that they hold for those knds of purchases.

3L120 – at 15:08

Does this mean the missionaries stopped by your house the next week? :-)

I gotta see what we have down here in Dixie…

src84111 – at 18:14

They didn’t ask for any personal info when we were there and I paid in cash, so unless they wrote down my license plate I think I made a clean getaway. Actually, they come by the house a couple times a year now. They are generally nice young guys. I usually politely let them know I’m not interested and then invite them in for a home cooked meal or a soda. Sometimes they accept, and they generally don’t get upset if a game is on the TV.

06 May 2006

preparedness101 – at 16:30

I am a member of the church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, and live in Canada. We aren’t being pushed towards being prepared because of a bird flu,. The president of the church, in 1998, said, that he wasn’t predicting years of famine in the future, after talking about pharoah’s dream, but it was time to get our houses in order. Not to be living on the edge of our incomes, and consuming debt. He did say, “There is a portent of stormy weather ahead to which we had better give heed” and “No one knows when emergencies will strike”. It could be as simple, as having an accident that would not allow you to work. We have been taught to be self reliant, and to store food, for over 70 years. I checked out the tour at the headquarters in Utah -Humanitarian centre, where they ship clothing, products, literacy, leprosy kits, etc abroad, it’s amazing to see what goes on behind the scenes…you locals should check it out!

The dry pack cannery (I happen to be there this morning!) Has certain certain items that you can pack in a #10 can or a mylar bag that won’t go rancid. Flour, beans (black, pinto, pink), wheat, oats (quick or regular), rice, sugar, apples slices, refried beans, choc or vanilla pudding, dry milk, fruit drink mix, hot cocoa mix, potato pearls, onions, carrots, spaghetti. You might even be able to buy a 1 month kit that includes the basics for 1 person with salt and shortening. Certain things you can take in such as other types of wheat. Other things you can’t can like cornmeal it’s got too much moisure and would go rancid. Some canneries may have an canner that you can take out, and then just buy the cans/lids from them and do it yourself. I’ve got some extra suckers/chocolate hidden this way! A friend of mind uses the fruit drink mix to make popsicles, has added vitamins in it, and much less costly! I’ve always have enjoyed the topic of preparedness, and right now, my responsibility is trying to get people better prepared in this area, so that’s why I at this site.

Rosie – at 18:43

Thank you Preparedness101, I appreciate the info. Ive been prepping for a few months now formally but Im realising that I have mini-prepped for a long time so I had a big advantage in that I have always kept a well stocked pantry, an extensive first aid kit and have grown vegetables. I get overwhelmed with the long term storage stuff. I have been buying 4 gallon square plastic buckets and liners for flour, beans, rice, sugar and oatmeal. Im trying to keep organised so I can rotate efficiently. I also am storing mac and cheese boxes, ramen noodles, crackers and other dry stuff in the buckets to avoid mice. I am thinking I need to find some oxygen absorbers. I like to think most of my neighbors have food storage, I know for sure 2 that do. I hope IM on the right track with what Im storing and how Im doing it.

preparedness101 – at 20:54

Rosie- You sound like you’re well on your way! Do you have water storage? Ideally, you should have a mininum of 14 gallons a person, for 2 weeks. I prefer canning my dry items, as then I know mice can’t chew their way in. One of the most important rules, is to store what you eat, eat what you store. Do you know, you can check out www.providentliving.org and check out under what to store, there is a interactive food calculator, that can help you determine how much you need for your family. There are recipes there, and ways to track what you have. We are encouraged to store the basics that would keep us alive, and then add the other good stuff! You can also get oxygen absorbers at the cannery, or probably somewhere online. Don’t be surprized, not all church members will be up to speed in food storage, just because they live in Utah. -Christina

Rosie – at 22:22

Thanks Christina, I have seen the ProvidentLiving website. Its a great start. I didnt want to get wheat because I dont know what to do with it and Im not sure my kids would eat it. I cook with basics most of the time and bake bread frequently so I know what I have will be eaten. I have 2 weeks of water for all humans and pets. I want to purchase a 55 gallon water storage drum. A few places in Salt Lake sell them so I dont have to worry about shipping. My goal is one year but it will take me a few months to get there. Im at about 5 months now. Whats hardest is canned meats, theyre so expensive! I have lots of rice and beans. We could survvie longer than the 5 months but my teenagers wouldnt be happy about the fare. I love your idea of canned candy! I could label it asparagus to make sure noone is too interested.

preparedness101 – at 23:09

Wheat can be stored indefinitely. You can get a wheat grinder, that can ground wheat, corn, etc. You can have flour then to make your bread. It’s a good idea to try it out, so you know you’re body can handle it, and not become gluten intolerant. You can make a meat substitue out of it..with wheat gluten. Some might sprout it, or make boiled wheat cereal…and perhaps even chew it like gum. That interactive calculator, is helpful, as if you choose not to include wheat, then add the suggested amount of wheat into other grains, like oats, rice, barley etc. At least, it will give you an idea of where to go from there. Someone I know, wherever she bakes and puts the goodies in the freezer, in an old broccoli bag, or brussel sprouts, then it doesn’t get touch! You need those comfort foods!

07 May 2006

Mother of Five – at 00:11

My kids love poptarts and they never last in my house so I dry-packed them and after a year on the shelf we tested them out—they were the same as when we first bought them. That would be a real comfort food to my kids because they won’t drink powdered milk and dry cereal doesn’t sound as appealing as a poptart (not much difference to me) but I also packed their favorite cereal too.

Rosie – at 00:38

Mother of Five- When you say dry-pack do you mean you canned them? If so how? Christina, I didnt realise the wheat could be stored indefinately! I see now why its so recommended.

Mother of Five – at 00:46

Rosie, The LDS storehouses have a dry-packing system. It is mentioned earlier in this thread and has been mentioned in other threads. If you are able to contact an LDS (Mormon) church in your area, then you can use their set-up. Dry-packing is storing dry foods (sorry for the duh!) such as flour, sugar, grains, etc. into #10 cans. It maintains its nutritional value longer (except poptarts, of course, there’s absolutely NO nutritional value in them) and it keeps moisture and critters out. I prefer using the #10 cans because I can purchase supplies in the smaller quantities for the cans than purchasing 50 gallon sealed buckets of supplies. For every #10 can (it holds about 5 lbs of flour) that I have, which is quite a few, my sister has a 50 gallon bucket…. But, I am making progress!

Rosie – at 00:53

I see, sorry to be so dense about it, I didnt realise that dry-pack is the same as canning. Im new to all this. I have my flour, sugar, biscuit mix, oats in 4 gallon buckets which hold 25 pounds of all but oats, thats fluffy and has just about 12 −13 pounds per bucket. Im not sure of the shelf life when I just put it in the buckets (with food storage liners), do you have any idea? I dont want to go over what we will use in that time frame. Im guessing about 6 months. I definately see the advantage of dry-canning over my bucket system though.

preparedness101 – at 02:53

Mother of Five -love the idea of poptarts…Did you keep them in the foil wrappers?

Rosie- You’re doing so great, that you can educate all the rest of your neighbours! I’m not exactally sure what the shelf life is with buckets/liners, as it can’t totally be guarantee to be air tight. For Example here is the shelf life, if the items were dry (dry items) packed (or put in a can) …I know you know this now! Are you ready?

Wheat Indefinitely, Flour 2 year/ 5 yrs dry packed, oats 4 yrs dry pkd, spaghetti/macaroni dry pkd- 8 years, Beans, 8 yrs dry pkd, dehydrated potato pearls 3 yrs dry pkd, dehydrated carrots 8 yrs dry pkd, dehydrated carrots 8 yrs dry pkd, canned tomatoes 2 years, canned corn 2 years, nuts 1 year in freezer, Sugar indefinitely(Sugar you don’t put oxygen absorbers in, or you have a solid rock!) Brown Sugar indefinitely (you don’t dry pack) Honey, Indefinitely (if no water is added)…actually honey is more valuable than sugar…back in one of the wars, honey sold for 3x the price of sugar. Actually, here is the article, where the fellow writes about it, and other valuable items. http://library.lds.org/nxt/gateway.dll?f=templates$fn=default.htm Jams 4 years, Fruit Drink Powdered 4 yrs Dry pkd, Hot Cocoa 4 yr Dry Pkd, Corn Syrup indefinetly, Pudding Mix 5 yr Dry pkd, Vegetable Oil 1–3 years, Shortening −5 years, Mayonnaise 10 months, Salad Dressing 8 month, Peanut Butter 2–5 years, Salt- indefinitely, Dry yeast −6 months check package, Baking Soda -Indefinite, Baking Powder −2 years, Spices - 2 years plus Non Fat Milk (dehydrated- - 2 years plus, if dry pkd, Evaporated Milk 1–3 years, Cheese (Hard) - 2 years, if frozen. Dehydrated Apples- 8 years, Raisins 1 yr in container or frozen, Can fruit −2 years, Tomato Sauce −2 years

I just learned today…Powdered milk if you open it up past those years, you take the oxygen absorber out, and then let it sit for a day, and the taste will be freshened to be in the air, ! …although, I really couldn’t tolerate it. I really should be using it now, with any recipe that calls for milk.

Other than food, you mention how you have a good first aid kit, and garden…what other ways are you manging to get yourself prepared…for example…what would your teenagers be doing if they were confined to your home….have lots of good books on hand?

~Christina

Rosie – at 10:34

Christina, Great point about cooped up teenagers! I have lots of board games, cards, we have a big back yard with basketball hoop (if we can go outside safely), lawn games ets. Also like you mentioned, lots of books. I thought possibly home improvement projects providing I have the supplies on hand. My 11 year old has been out of school since late Jan because of surgery and wont go back this year so I am home schooling him currently with assistance from our school district. I love doing it and it has been a great bonding experience. The older ones will be a little harder to keep occupied. Especially the 16 year old who has a taste of freedom driving. What have you planned? Rosie

src84111 – at 11:31

rosie—Are the big sqaure containers that you put your supplies in airtight? If so (and in case you haven’t already done it), you may want to see if you can make the supplies last longer by putting some dry ice in when you pack them. The idea is to get the oxygen out of the container (oxygen is what spoils most foods that are held long term without canning), and if you put a couple of small chunks of dry ice in the bottoom of the container, as the ice evaporates it pushes the air out (CO2 is heavier than air) and you end up with a container full of supplies and CO2. If you put the lid on lightly when you pack the container, let the ice evaporate and then “burp” the container, there’s a good chance that you’ve gotten a lot of the oxygen out of the container. You only need a little dry ice in each container (I use a couple of chucks about the size of those litle soaps they give you in motels for a 5 gallon container). You can get the dry ice at a lot of grocery stores, and it’s only about $3 for a 2 pound chunk. That does about 6 or 8 5-gallon containers.

mmmelody47 – at 12:05

I would appreciate an opinion regarding the use of the Food Saver vacuum system and using 1/2 gallon canning jars. I get an excellent seal and while they’re not #10 cans I hope what I’m doing will offer some protection for a longer term storage on dry foods. Slug away at me if I’m wasting my time.

Rosie – at 12:37

SRC84111, Thanks for that tip, I have never heard that before. I read about putting a small amount of liquor on top of jams and lighting it on fire then extinguishing by placing the ring on top. It uses the oxygen and forms a vacuum. Im a little scared to try that one but it seems like a great premise. My containers are air tight, I purchased them at a food storage store and they are the ones they sell stuff in, I just packed them myself. The liners seem to be worth the 10 bucks I spent for 100 liners. They are a food grade (or maybe that means nothing except higher cost) clear plastic bag that fits inside the bucket, I put the product in and then squeeze as much air out of the liner as possible and baggie tie it so the product is not even exposed to the air inside the bucket.

Allquietonthewesternfront – at 12:47

One of my sons and I are allergic to wheat but we have found that we can tolerate it a few times a week if we grind the wheat ourselves and bake it immediately. I think it have something to do with the oils not going rancid. When my husband and I were in school, our kids were little. When things were tight, we would grind wheat and bake bread for a meal sometimes. We learned that when little tummies are hungry, nothing satisfies as well as hot, homemade wheat bread. It helps ease cravings and is very nutritional and filling. Since greens would be scarce during a shortage, we have alfalfa seeds on hand that we sprout along with wheat sprouts and can make a salad out of that. We have oil, vinager and spices for dressing. Sprouts have far more protein than unsprouted food and the enzymes help the body maintain good health.

Allquietonthewesternfront – at 12:49

I should also add that flour is an acid food and there is some speculation that maintaining a body in a more alkaline state helps fight off influenza. When wheat is sprouted before using, it becomes an almost perfect PH balance.

Kim – at 21:03

mmmelody47 at 12:05, I use my Foodsaver to pack powdered milk in 1/2 gallon canning jars. I buy the milk at Sam’s Club in 4.4 lb containers, then put it in the 1/2 gallon jars (one box will require 3 jars). I use my canning funnel to pour the powder in, then jiggle each jar repeatedly to settle and pack the powder down, leaving about a 1″ headspace in each jar. Then I drop an oxygen absorber pack in each jar, make sure there is no trace of powder on the jar rim, apply a canning lid, then use the Foodsaver attachment to vacuum out the air. Once I have a seal, I screw on the canning ring to the jar, because I’ve found that sometimes the seal from the Foodsaver will fail within days or weeks. With the ring screwed tightly on, there’s no chance of that happening. So far I’ve got 39 half-gallon jars filled (enough for 286 quarts, or just over 71 gallons, of reconstituted milk). Oh, and if I have any powder left over from a box after filling the 3 jars, I dump it into a quart canning jar I keep in my kitchen cupboard, and use that for adding to any recipe that calls for milk.

Mother of Five – at 23:50

Hello newbies, I’m back again! BTW, yes, I did keep the double poptarts in their silver lining. I lay several flat (horizontal) and then slipped in a package or two upright (vertically.) Also, I have drypacked my brown sugar to keep out unwanted things…. I put a gallon ziploc bag in first, flip the zippered edge over the edge of the can, fill it full with brown sugar and zip it closed while trying to get every last bit of air out of the bag—and then I seal it. I have opened it at six months and then at a year and it has always been soft and fresh.

So many of the above questions have been discussed to the very very specific details on previous food storage threads. I am unsure of the best method to research the topics for some of your specific questions—perhaps one of the mods could explain that??? :)

08 May 2006

mmmelody47 – at 11:10

Kim – at 21:03 - you use an oxygen absorber and vacuum the jar with the Food Saver as well? I asked for feedback, but let me clarify….when using the canning jars, I wash in hot soapy water along with the lids - and immediately fill with food after drying. There seems to be an emphasis (that I’ve read) on using the lids when still warm from washing since the lid then provides a stronger and more reliable seal. If your method will give me more shelf life, I’ll get some absorbers on the Net.

Thank you for your input.

Kim – at 16:06

mmmelody47, yes I use an oxygen absorber plus vacuuming with the Foodsaver. I, too, had been under the mistaken impression that an oxygen absorber would create a vacuum by itself, but it does not. All the oxygen absorber packet does is absorb any remaining oxygen in the jar (the Foodsaver can’t pull a PERFECT vacuum), and I figure that the less oxygen is in that jar then the longer my food will last. It might be overkill, but the packets are cheap and I figure they do no harm. The Foodsaver SHOULD, in theory, give an adequate seal to the jar, but I found that the seal would occasionally fail, so that is why I also use the screw-on bands on the jars after they’re sealed. Having both the jar and lid warm when packaging will help with a seal, but it’s just as easy to add the screw-on band for a little extra insurance, since I don’t want to be having to check the seals constantly. And powdered milk, since it’s a powder, seems to be especially prone to vacuum failure, I suppose because some microscopic amount of powder gets pulled onto the sealing surfaces when vacuuming. The band will keep the rubber seal in firm contact with the jar rim, so the seal shouldn’t break. I dehydrate alot of my own stuff too, and now use this method with everything I dehydrate.

mmmelody47 – at 18:13

Kim - you got me thinking now about using the screw-on bands. The dangerous part of this is…..I’m thinking! Now, if you hold the jar up in front of you, you’ll see the threads on the jar slanting downwards which causes the “screwing” action. (I really don’t mean that the way it sounds. ;-)) As you turn the lid to secure it - the ring will initially come in contact with a very small area on the lid likely causing loss of the vacuum seal. I read somewhere – and cannot remember where I saw it, that you shouldn’t use the rings when vacuum sealing a canning jar. So what may be happening is – you lose vacuum when adding the ring and then regain the seal with the action caused by the absorber.

Does this make any sense?

Furthermore….I’m not from the great state of Utah, but respect the postings of those in LDS - you truly know what you’re doing with canning and food storage, etc.

Kim – at 19:09

mmmelody47, ummmm, I’m not in Utah nor LDS either, just like to cruise the other state’s sites and see if I can pick up any good info or maybe offer help. I’m also pretty dangerous myself when the ol’ gears start turning ;-) I really don’t know the answer, I guess, on all this. All i can tell you from my experience is this… If I don’t put the rings on right after I vacuum-seal a powdered milk jar (with O2 absorber), the lid may have popped down and seem to be sealed, but when I check it a few days or weeks later, it may be loose and popped up. If I DO put a ring on right after sealing, then the seal appears to remain good and ‘sucked down” for many many months later. I figure that as long as the lid is “sucked down”, I still have a good seal. The oxygen absorbers will NOT cause a vacuum in the jar… I thought that until Prof Eccles set me straight in another thread, so I don’t think the O2 absorbers are having any effect on the seal. I do know that you’re not supposed to leave the bands on pressure-canned or wet-packed foods… I suppose the reason for that is that you’d want the lid to easily pop up if there was any loss of a good seal. Any canners out there that can help with this?

29 May 2006

HiddenInHolladayat 23:57

From time to time I pick up comments on the forum postings that suggest there are lots of posters in Utah. Other days I get the feeiling there are only one or two of us. I’d like to get a better feel for who else resides in the state.

I’m part of a family of 3 (husband, wife and 13 year old son). We live in Holladay, which is one of Salt Lake City’s satellite communities. If things go bad, we’ll probably end up hosting (kidnapping?) my wife’s 80-something parents for the duration. I’m an attorney, and my wife works for the State. My wife is, at best, tolerant of my prepping.

Anyone else want to fess up?

30 May 2006

HiddenInHolladayat 08:53

bump

Rhetor – at 10:53

Hi,HiddeninHolladay:

We live in the neighborhood of the University of Utah. I teach as an adjunct (maybe not next year?) and my husband is a civil engineer who works for the state. We have a 16 year old son and an 8 year old daughter, but we also have other relatives and numerous friends — I doubt either of us could refuse to help any friend or relative who showed up on the porch hungry. I really hope the LDS church has a huge amount of food stored somewhere for people who lack the means to prepare for themselves. (We aren’t members).

3L120 – at 12:28

Anyone in the LDS church have any idea on hand-out policy by the church as regards non prepared LDS or non-members? Are there storage areas in the wards? I have not been able to get any of the members I know to confirm or deny.

Rosie – at 12:42

Hi, I live in West Jordan. Im a single mom with 3 kids at home. I would take in my grown daughter and probably her boyfriend. I would take in my former husband too. I have prepped with these extras in mind and have told each one of them that. I agree Rhetor, I hope the LDS church (Im also not a member) has food stored for members and anyone who needs it. I knwo they have warehouses scattered around the area. Ive always known we live in the most beautiful state and now appreciate the long standing attitude of preparation as much as the beauty. I know I have learned much from my LDS friends and neighbors about food storage. We also have access to food starage type stores that arent located in other states so we dont have the shipping costs to add on. Thats a huge plus, sometimes the shippind is as much as the item on bulky6 things like water barrels. The two best Ive found are Moos Farms located just east of 300 west and just south of 3500 south west of the freeway and also Survival Essentials on 3500 south and about 200 west on the north side of the road. Has anyone found any others?

Rhetor – at 14:23

3L120: my husband claims that each stake in the LDS church is required to contribute food storage to “the Bishop’s Storehouse.” He learned this from LDS friends while still a child. I have also heard of food donations to the needy regularly coming out of surplus food storage.

I have recently seen LDS food storage sites (links on Fluwickie) that state the Church policy is to share what they have, even with non-members.

Rosie: I do like Emergency Essentials and think the prices are generally good. Orson Gigi is a restaurant supply store on about 3500 south 300 west (I’d have to check it) where I was able to find a really nice selection of bulk spices that Costco doesn’t carry — tumeric, coriander, etc.

HiddenInHolladayat 14:48

Boy, am I glad to see that I’m not the only one in the State who’s taking this seriously!

I’m at work right now, so I can’t do a long message, but I’ll try to put together some questions and comments about your messages today later this evening.

Rosie – at 15:35

Thanks Rhetor, Ill check out Orson Gigi. Youre right about the name of Emergency Essentials, I had a little brain cramp and called it Survival Essentials. The last time I was in there they still had MRE’s. I have debated whether to add them to my preps but havent as of yet. Orson Ggi must be very close by from he address. Some LDS friends have told me that the church is again emphasizing to members to have their food storage in order. Avian flu has not been mentioned but food storage has. I have read and heard that the LDS church will share with non members also.

31 May 2006

Mother of Five – at 00:58

I am LDS, have been since I was fourteen, along with my siblings and parents. We didn’t grow up in UT but my two sisters and two brothers and their respective families, plus my parents, all live in Utah now. One of my brothers has a propane tank buried and wired to the house to run the house…he has a water tank buried that is wired to the house…and he has a gas tank buried and has a pump in his garage to fill up his cars. All of these things are set up so that they could live in their home with all the comforts for approximately a year or longer. His storage room in his basement is also built to seal and filter out radiation fallout from a nuclear bomb, if they were to survive something like that. One of my sister’s has the largest storage supply of anyone I have ever met (and I am now in my early 40′s.) They know quite a few other people that are following their lead and making similar preparations. It makes me wish I did live in Utah. And, no, I can’t divulge where they live!

This is what was said about the Hurricane Katrina relief effort from our church president concerning the question about helping non-LDS: “Their (referring to the LDS people who helped) assistance has gone not only to members of the church in trouble, but to great numbers of those concerning whom no religious affiliation has been made.” In respect to Katrina, the total labor donated was 42,138 days, or more than 115 donated years. The church gives 100% of donations to those in need, like the Tsunami-hit areas, no administrative costs are deducted from donations to church humanitarian services. The WHO has dubbed the year 2005 as “the year of natural disasters.” In 2005, the LDS church responded to disasters in 67 countries; distributing 1.7m hygiene, school, newborn and cleaning kits, 7.6m pounds of food, 260,000 blankets, 1.3m pounds of medical supplies and 2m pounds of clothing.

 In fact, the church was put in charge of the Tsunami relief efforts because of our effective system.  This is a direct quote “The church will stay in the mode of emergency response, offering longer-term aid only when appropriate on an individual basis.  But one thing is sure, the church will absolutely continue to offer aid whenever possible, wherever people suffer.”  Our storehouses around the country and world are at full capacity at all times now because of the emergency mode.  The funds for this are taken from the church’s fast offerings. The first Sunday of each month is our Fast Sunday, where church members skip two or three meals.  Then we donate a sum of money we feel would have been spent for our meals.  Some give above and beyond and it varies from that to nothing.  However, I believe all the welfare program funds are taken from fast offerings.

Sorry this is getting lengthy. I am trying to answer your questions and to explain as briefly as possible:) The church went to the centralized system as they grew so large and in order to keep a balance. Some areas may be more wealthy than others and may thrive when another area may struggle. Each church’s funding is based on how many attend their Sunday sacrament meetings. So, it may be different in each area. Another example, is the church’s missionary program. Each missionary serves for two years and it costs every single missionary $350 a month. Now, in Hawaii the cost per month for a missionary may be upwards of $600 but another missionary in the Dominican Republic (I chose that because my brother went there) may only need $150 a month. I mention this because in a pandemic-type emergency, you may find that your area is different. In Indiana, there is a central storehouse, but it is designated to meet the needs of a region, which I believe covers three states. It is not set up to support large groups of people for a lengthy time period. Even some church members don’t understand that. A lot of LDS believe “the church will provide.” But what it boils down to is what each individual area is doing, just like everyone else. It’s your community.

The president of our church has always encouraged emergency preparation. It hasn’t come and gone like a fashion statement kind of thing. I think the topic has drawn more attention of late, and there seems to be more emphasis placed on preparation, but the church leadership has always encouraged it. Just like every other church, it really depends on how fully the members live and follow its teachings. My personal feeling is that you probably shouldn’t count on the LDS church to be able to provide any long-term aid, and possibly not even short term aid if BF strikes everywhere. I know personally how many are prepping in my area and I am worried about all of them knocking on my door because they know I AM prepping. I have nightmares about it because I know we can’t take care of all of them. And that doesn’t include my non-LDS friends who say if it gets bad they know they’re heading to my house. I smile when they say that, but I don’t have a clue what I will do.

I am sorry this post is so long everyone. I hope it helps you gain a balanced perspective about these things :)

anonymous – at 12:27

Hi, Mother of Five:

Thanks for all the great information. I totally understand your fears about everyone showing up at your house at the first sign of catastrophe. I’ve told everyone I know that I am getting prepared, and I estimate that 50 or more people will expect me to take care of them in the event of a pandemic. I, in fact, would not be able to deny help to any of these people who asked. I’ve prepared for six people for six months, and the time, energy, and money required to do it has been considerable. But unless other people are motivated to prepare for themselves, I’m really not prepared at all. My hope is not that the LDS Church will take of my family, but that they will offer assistance to those who need it. I am aware of just how organized the LDS church is, and of how large their role will likely be in the event of a pandemic. I read recently that they will use their ward houses to carry out any mass vaccination program here, just as an example.

I am interested in how the Church would handle a disruption of the global supply chain, and hope that the combination of all the families who have stored one year of food, with the experience and organization of the LDS church, will prevent civil unrest. Since I am planning on SIP in an urban area, and my husband and I are queasy about guns, I do understand that we will get through this as a society or not at all.

Maybe I should be considering bugging out to my dad’s secluded place in the redwoods of Northern California…

Rhetor – at 12:29

sorry, that was me.

food storage nut – at 12:46

When Hurricane Katrina hit our local LDS cannery was completely cleaned out in a matter of hours since they sent all that they had to the area. The LDS canneries won’t be able to help I feel sure. They are helping by giving us the opportunity to stock up NOW.

3L120 – at 15:32

When I talked to the local Emergency Services Coordinator, here in S. Utah, he admitted that ‘many of the locals may be LDS but do not have the money or forethought to prepare for any kind of disaster. Yet they still have the $ for fast food.’ His statement not mine. Even if the Church has supplies, the non-prepping members will probably overwhelm the system in short order. With 4 grocery stores in town and a consumer intake that stretches 30 miles south and 100 miles north, east 50 miles and west well into NV, the supplies in stores will run out about as fast.

01 June 2006

Rhetor – at 14:59

I think it’s almost impossible to imagine what living under such conditions will mean — or impossible to imagine except in terms of some low-budget horror movie. That is what makes the prospect so unbelievable or unreal, and why so many people don’t feel the need to prepare. Are any of you feeling more and more that the pandemic is right on top of us? At the same time, I can’t quite believe something so devastating could ever really happen. I am fortunate that my husband has supported me in getting prepared — lately he seems even more worried about it than I am. (He’s having his adjustment reaction). Still, it’s very unnerving to be living under a threat that most of the people I interact with on a daily basis don’t fully grasp.

02 November 2006

and how are things in Utah – at 17:58
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Page last modified on November 02, 2006, at 05:58 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Rhode Island Preppers

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Rhode Island Preppers

25 March 2006

ricewiki – at 18:17

Is anyone here from Rhode Island prepping?

25 April 2006

ricewiki – at 22:52

Still no one here in Rhode Island?

26 April 2006

lauraB – at 15:57

Sorry Ricewiki. Hate to see you so lonely! I’m nearby in CT and we rent at the beach in RI - does that count?

ricewiki – at 16:19

:) okay… I’m not actually in RI, but want to get those together who are… looking for the lurkers and newbies! Hopefully will see more new visits to the wiki soon.

02 June 2006

analyst4mkts – at 14:39

ricewiki- I am prepping in RI. I have only connected with fluwiki a few weeks back and I have been playing catchup on the entire issue and threat. I have to admit to being almost totally ignorant on the subject before April. It would be great to connect with others locally to share sources and solutions for prepping. I do not know of anyone in either my personel or professional life who are engaged. The few people who I have approached all think I am nuts or that destiny will take its course regardless of worry or preparation.

lauraB – at 15:46

Analyst - I’m in CT and it’s the same way. I either get laughed off or a blank stare. No one near me is serious either. I’ve only been prepping for several weeks now but the site has been a great resource. Do lots of reading then create a plan. If you have an Aldi’s, Big Lots or Tractor Supply near you they are great places for cheap preps, along with the usual club stores (as I recall they are not many in RI though).

Best wishes and welcome!

analyst4mkts – at 16:16

thanks laura I grew up in CT and have family there. I tried over the weekend to discuss prepping and fallback plans in case anyone needs to find a safer haven if things go bad. I felt obligated to try but I sorta knew what the reaction would be. The conversation didn’t go long. I will continue to prep my household…my better half understands but is not ready to embrace the potential severity. As a result I will be a slow accumulator. Since I have three growing sons…this is a lot of accumulating! We don’t have Aldi’s or Tractor Supply. We do have Job Lots (RI equivalent to Big Lots), but I wasn’t impressed with the selection at the local store other than sternno which is 0.69/can. We have both BJs and Sam’s and I have made one prep trip to BJs. I have lots of storage space and stuff to make gadgets etc so I am not concerned about commode, solar shower, solar oven etc. I keep seeing things posted on the site that give me ideas for little projects that will occupy my time during any early SIP. I am concerned about food, water, meds and heat in the winter though.

preppiechick – at 16:23

HI! My DH’s family is from RI and we visit almost every year. I know that there is a Sams in Warwick, off 117.You can go to samsclub.com for directions and other sams, i.e. Mass or NH. One of my favorite places to go (after we’ve gourged on fried clams,doughboys,dels…sad, I know!) is the Christmas tree shoppes. I’ve actually picked up some grea bargains and interesting stuff.

lauraB – at 16:41

Analyst-I have three kids as well and feel that what I have prepped isn’t nearly enough. But I have a decent stockpile of long shelf-life items (canned veggies, rice, etc.) and am waiting for things to heat up a bit before stocking up on shorter shelf life things like cereal,etc. It’s a work-in-progress. I am not only worried about winter heat (alhtough we’re in the woods and have good fireplace) but water as well since we have a well. You’re lucky you’re handy - I’m not!

preppie - thanks for the x-mas tree reminder. I always go there for b-day parties (CHEAP paper goods!) but should go again soon to get prep items.

analyst4mkts – at 16:48

hi preppiechick I hadn’t thought of the Christmas Tree shoppes…I’ll check it out but I not sure what they will have that will be useful. It does remind me that it would be useful to consider buying christmas presents now as it might be prudent or neccessary to avoid the xmas crowds at the mall next winter.

PS I hope you manage to toss down a lobster and some steamers when you visit as well. Lil Rhody can be critizied for many things but dining out is not one of them…some of the greatest meals to be found…from comfort food all the way to gourmet.

lauraB – at 16:52

Analyst- have you ever been to x-mas tree shop? They carry the weirdest mix of items, lots of junkie decorating things, etc. but always amazingly low prices. They have some hh cleaning products, shampoos, kids books, craft supplies, etc. Just about anything but x-mas stuff! I wouldn’t go out of my way to hit one but if you have one near by….

analyst4mkts – at 17:09

lauraB- I have approached the water issue by beginning to load up on combination of flats (24 16oz bottles)and gal jugs. I also have picked up a number of those collapsible 5 gallon containers. Sports Authority had them at $8 each but they rang up at half off (suprise to cashier but she let me have them). I have also stored 3 gal household bleach and some pool chlorine to purify water. I am looking at drums for the basement now as well as rainwater collection. I live close to the ocean so desalination still might be something to work on as well. With regards to food, I have taken a similar approach to yours, focusing on the long shelf life items. I decided to store food I knew could be prepared with minimal fuss and that small children will eat. I also found it helpful to create a simple but effective spreadsheet that helps calculate needs and inventory on this. This way, I have a ready to go shopping list all the time that tells me how may of what items I need to bring inventory to “plan”. I am working on a 12 week plan but once I achieve that I will look at expanding.

analyst4mkts – at 17:12

lauraB- my wife loves the x-mas tree shoppe…i on the other have passionately avoided the place in the past.

lauraB – at 17:59

Analyst- can’t blame you. The place drives me nuts too but “Don’t you just love a bargain?!”

lauraB – at 18:02

Felcia posted this today - it’s a huge 28-day food plan she developed with full menus. You might fine it helpful. It has made me fully realize I need so much more!

http://www.fluwikie2.com/pmwiki.php?n=Forum.28DayFoodPlanAndShoppingList

02 November 2006

any new Rhode Island readers – at 17:56
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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / What Was Life Like in 1918

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: What Was Life Like in 1918

26 October 2006

Reader – at 00:19

I got this in my e-mail today. Not 1918 exactly, but close, and gives you an idea of what life might have been like during the pandemic.

The year is 1906. One hundred years ago. What a difference a century makes! Here are some of the U.S. statistics for the Year 1906


The average life expectancy in the U.S. was 47.

A three-minute call from Denver to New York City cost eleven dollars.

There were only 8,000 cars in the U.S., and only 144 miles of paved roads.

The maximum speed limit in most cities was 10 mph.

Alabama, Mississippi, Iowa, and Tennessee were each more heavily populated than California.

With a mere 1.4 million people, California was only the 21st most populous state in the Union.

The tallest structure in the world was the Eiffel Tower!

The average wage in the US. was 22 cents per hour.

The average U.S. worker made between $200 and $400 per year.

A competent accountant could expect to earn $2000 per year, a dentist $2,500 per year, a veterinarian between $1,500 and $4,000 per year, and a mechanical engineer about $5,000 per year.

More than 95 percent of all births in the U.S. took place at HOME.

Ninety percent of all U.S. doctors had NO COLLEGE EDUCATION! Instead, they attended so-called medical schools, many of which were condemned in the press AND the government as “sub-standard.”

Sugar cost four cents a pound.

Eggs were fourteen cents a dozen.

Coffee was fifteen cents a pound.

Most women only washed their hair once a month, and used borax or egg yolks for shampoo.

Canada passed a law that prohibited poor people from entering into their country for any reason.

The Five leading causes of death in the U.S. were: 1. Pneumonia and influenza 2. Tuberculosis 3. Diarrhea 4. Heart disease 5. Stroke

The American flag had 45 stars. Arizona , Oklahoma, New Mexico, Hawaii, and Alaska hadn’t been admitted to the Union yet.

The population of Las Vegas, Nevada, was only 30!!!!

Crossword puzzles, canned beer, and ice tea hadn’t been invented yet.

There was no Mother’s Day or Father’s Day.

Two out of every 10 U.S. adults couldn’t read or write. Only 6 percent of all Americans had graduated from high school.

Marijuana, heroin, and morphine were all available over the counter at the local corner drugstores. Pharmacists said, “Heroin clears the complexion, gives buoyancy to the mind, regulates the stomach and bowels, and is, in fact, a perfect guardian of health.”

Eighteen percent of households in the U.S. had at least one full-time servant or domestic help.

There were about 230 reported murders in the ENTIRE U.S.A.!

Now I forwarded this from someone else without typing it myself, and sent it to you and others all over the United States, possibly the world, in a matter of seconds !

Now having read this try to imagine what it may be like in another 100 years.

31 October 2006

crfullmoon – at 15:32

date, population, change, Average Annual % change

July 1, 1917 population = 103,268,000 change of + 1,307,000, %change= 1.27

July 1, 1918, population = 103,208,000 change of −60,000, %change= −0.06

Population Estimates Program

Major SideScrollat 15:50

First post. Too many asterisks…

pogge – at 15:55

Too many asterisks…

… will make things go blooey every time. If you want to create a horizontal divider put four dashes, e.g. ----, on a line by themselves.

LA Escapee – at 16:14

Pogge…

Another change since 1918:

Manual typewriters did not change your formatting without your permission!

Bronco Bill – at 16:19

With a mere 1.4 million people, California was only the 21st most populous state in the Union.

With real estate prices the way they are, that may come to pass again!! ;-)

Commonground – at 16:41

Bronco Bill - yup. New York’s taxes aren’t far behind.

Texas Rose – at 16:46

My late father-in-law was born in 1902. We went to a museum to which he had donated quite a few exhibits and as we went through the museum it was like having our very own guide to that time period because he talked about how it was living during those years.

02 November 2006

bump – at 17:40
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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / What to Teach Children About a Pandemic

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: What to Teach Children About a Pandemic

29 October 2006

Walrus – at 17:56

It struck me after reading Average Concerned Mom’s excellent post on schools and children, that I haven’t seen a thread on how we should prepare our kids for a possible pandemic. I think it warrants some serious attention.

I guess what needs to be done is something along the lines of the following, suitably tailored to the age of the kids concerned.

1. What a pandemic is.

2. What will happen (in general terms) to you and your children if there is a pandemic (eg SIP).

3. What you want your child to do, and not do (eg. always washing hands).

4. Then perhaps some training in tasks and ways that you want your kids to help you (eg. Looking after little kids, Dog etc.

5. Emergency actions the child should take (eg Knowing how to use a phone and who to ring if you get sick)

Over to you.

crfullmoon – at 18:30

Well, now, while emergency services still work, they should already know how to call for help if they are old enough to (uh) dial(I’m getting old) the phone; seemingly healthy adults can suddenly have various sorts of internal/external medical emergencies that could prevent them from being able to summon help for themselves.

Seems some people have been telling their children about pandemic alert period the whole time, and some have been trying to shield, and, everything in between. Every family is different.

Knowing where things are and how to use them, and as much basic safety skills, first aid and simple nursing skills as they can be taught?

LauraBat 19:45

There are severeal threads on this topic. A big factor is how old the child is and his/her maturity level. Persoanlly I’m not telling any of mine anything right now (ages 10, 6 1n 3). While my oldest could handle the topic, my middle one would stress way too much about something that might not happen and my youngest would never understand. But I am working with them more to be able to do more on their own - opening certain food items, do laundry, etc. I am also making a phone/emergency list for them and others should anything happen to dh or I. CR has a good idea with basic nursing skills - I need to show mine where all the first aid stuff is, review what to do with a cut, etc.

Goju – at 19:56

My 13 yr old asked me if she could stay up late every night.

I told her “wake at dawn and sleep at sunset.

She was not happy.

There will be strickt rules and schedules in my home… 2 exercise periods a day and chores aimed at survival and learning as well as lots of playing and singing.

02 November 2006

bump – at 17:38

Let’s get it started…

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Not BF but Food for Thought

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Not BF but Food for Thought

29 October 2006

Thom – at 10:53

Have you danced today? Are we so wrapped up in prepping that we forget or don’t have time to stop and smell the flowers? A good friend sent this to me this morning and I thought I’d pass it on as I have had AF on the top of my list for months and realized that I have not danced at all during that time… Maybe someone else will find something worthwhile in it also.

Too many people put off something that brings them joy just because they haven’t thought about it, don’t have it on their schedule, didn’t know it was coming or are too rigid to depart from their routine.

I got to thinking one day about all those people on the Titanic who passed up dessert at dinner that fateful night in an effort to cut back. From then on, I’ve tried to be a little more flexible.

How many women out there will eat at home because their husband didn’t suggest going out to dinner until after something had been thawed? Does the word “refrigeration” mean nothing to you?

How often have your kids dropped in to talk and sat in silence while you watched ‘Jeopardy’ on television?

I cannot count the times I called my sister and said, “How about going to lunch in a half hour?” She would gas up and stammer, “I can’t. I have clothes on the line. My hair is dirty. I wish I had known yesterday, I had a late breakfast, It looks like rain.” And my personal favorite: “It’s Monday.” She died a few years ago. We never did have lunch together.

Because Americans cram so much into their lives, we tend to schedule even our headaches. We live on a sparse diet of promises we make to ourselves when all the conditions are perfect!

We’ll go back and visit the grandparents when we get Steve / Sarah toilet-trained. We’ll entertain when we replace the living-room carpet. We’ll go on a second honeymoon when we get two more kids out of college.

Life has a way of accelerating as we get older. The days get shorter, and the list of promises to ourselves gets longer. One morning, we awaken, and all we have to show for our lives is a list of “I’m going to,” “I plan on,” and “Someday, when things are settled down a bit.”

When anyone calls my ‘seize the moment’ friend, she is open to adventure and available for trips. She keeps an open mind on new ideas. Her enthusiasm for life is contagious. You talk with her for five minutes, and you’re ready to trade your bad feet for a pair of Rollerblades and skip an elevator for a bungee cord.

My lips have not touched ice cream in 10 years. I love ice cream. It’s just that I might as well apply it directly to my stomach with a spatula and eliminate the digestive process. The other day, I stopped the car and bought a triple-decker. If my car had hit an iceberg on the way home, I would have died happy.

Now…go on and have a nice day. Do something you WANT to……not something on your SHOULD DO list. If you were going to die soon and had only one phone call you could make, who would you call and what would you say? And why are you waiting?

Have you ever watched kids playing on a merry go round or listened to the rain lapping on the ground? Ever followed a butterfly’s erratic flight or gazed at the sun into the fading night?

Do you run through each day on the fly? When you ask “How are you?” Do you really hear the reply? When the day is done, do you lie in your bed with the next hundred chores running through your head? Ever told your child, “We’ll do it tomorrow.” And in your haste, not see his sorrow?

Ever lost touch? Let a good friendship die? Just call to say “Hi”?

When you worry and hurry through your day, it is like an unopened gift….Thrown away…. Life is not a race. Take it slower. Hear the music before the song is over.

“Life may not be the party we hoped for… but while we are here we might as well dance…

Grace RN – at 11:01

I was just dancing with my 8 week old grandson, who is fast asleep. My dancing must not have been too impressive, as his only response was to…well…pass gas…DH and I shared a good laugh over that.

Seems my singing has the same effect. I’m typing w/1 finger as he sleeps soundly on my shoulder.

Life at this moment is great!!!!

DoubleDat 11:03

Life is not about surviving - but living - really living. :)

Plan for the future but enjoy the “here and now” too.

Thom – at 11:23

Grace RN - I understand as I had the pleasure of babysitting my grandkids yesterday and it just made my whole day brighter. I have also come to the conclusion that grandchildren are Gods gift for not killing your own kids when they were growing up. How else can one explain so much love is such a small package?

BTW – the ‘passing gas’ is a guy thing, seems like your grandson is on the right track.

mj – at 11:29

Grace and Thom, I’m a wee bit envious, but just made reservations to go see my two little ones in a month. A special treat given to me by a friend, an airline ticket she couldn’t use and it has a use by date. Now to get the Christmas presents done by then.. Gotta go get sewing.

DennisCat 11:37

Thom – at 10:53 “Have you danced today? “

I had not danced before- but we got an exchange student that loves ballroom dancing (contests and stuff). So I am learning some ballroom dancing - and at my age (undisclosed). She made me watch “Shall we Dance” - fun movie.

Prepping Gal – at 13:19

I come from the other side of this issue. I’m doing exactly what I want with my life and to think BF could come and change everything is a terrible thought. Decisions I’ve made have led me to be where I want to be. Perfect life, no but I am not hurried, I don’t have bad stress, I’m as active as I want to be and healthy & fit. My home is my sanctuary with the partner I want to be with forever. That’s why I guess the thought of people showing up on my doorstep again is a terrible thought. I say appreciate what you have right now. Always wanting something more or something different voids you have having contentment and peace of mind. I sometimes wonder why we as a species always want more.

Oremus – at 18:36

A college instructor of mine once said (pertaining to choosing a career), “Do what you like to do. You can always make more money, but you can never make more time.”

02 November 2006

bump – at 17:37
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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Australia and New Zealand for October

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Australia and New Zealand for October

01 October 2006

AnnieBat 02:45

Previous thread (September) here

AnnieBat 02:48

Welcome to October team - here’s hoping it is another quiet month for us all - apart from trying to convince TPTB to get properly planned and prepped.

RobTat 03:23

I second your hope.

Blue – at 05:06
 The Pressures on……………………………………………..
Blue – at 12:03

………. … . … ……..

Blue – at 12:05
 I’m staying away from Perth airport……I can tell you.
AnnieBat 16:52

Blue - they’re coming to take you away ha ha hee hee, to the funny farm (typing faster and faster) - sorry cannot remember who performed that particular song to give credit for it ;-)

Blue – at 20:01
 ..Reminds me of a Motorhead tune tho…

 That’s it:

 The Watcher: “Well it’s nice up here on the..Funnyfarm”…something like that.

 Very Cool Song. (Off the album,On Parole)

 “Check it Out!”(Black Eyed Peas),Ha.
Blue – at 20:03

Oh…and in case you didn’t realise…those false alarms seem to be moving from the east coast to the west coast; and Perth is on the west coast..”oh!”

04 October 2006

Call of the Wild – at 01:46

bump

AnnieBat 02:18

Just so you are not left wondering where I am - I am taking a break for a couple of weeks and will view (and possibly) post intermittently. Will miss you guys in the meantime. See you soon.

08 October 2006

AnnieBat 19:30

Just popped in for a quick catchup. Looks like it will take more than a few minutes to catch all the news. See you again in about a week ;-)

10 October 2006

RobTat 21:22

Hi all;

Just posted a flyer tweaked for Australia to distribute any way we can. Have a read and give me some feedback please.

http://mindspinner.net/docs/Community_Pandemic_flyer.pdf

If you want your suburb name in the title, let me know.

11 October 2006

Call of the Wild – at 21:46

Great stuff! Maybe take suburb out and have neighbours and I could use it. Also put in the link to Woodson’s home care article.

RobTat 22:40

Call ot Wild;

That’s a good idea, just make it generic.

As to putting in the link to Woodson’s doc, I don’t know about that. Don’t get me wrong, I think his manual is great, but here are my concerns, and tell me if I’m wrong. It seems that his document presumes that you can do something effective by home nursing somebody with flu, sort of like “keep the electrolytes and fluids OK & they will pull through”. However from what I have read of the case reports of those that have been infected with H5N1, and the ARDS & multi organ system failure mechanism, it seems to me that home care is pretty much useless.

Of course the virus may mutate to a less pathogenic form & that would be good, and then home care will be extremely important. But shouldn’t we emphasize that you don’t want to get infected in the first place? Don’t rely at all on some medical intervention saving your life?

That’s the way I’ve approached our preps. I’m assuming if I or any of my family get infected….it’s all over red rover.

Scares the hell out of me, as well it should.

12 October 2006

omega-sydney – at 00:39

RobT at 22.40 Intro: Been browsing for some time here and elsewhere since H5N1 became public. I have had a look at USA Pandemic awareness flyer and your ‘tweaked’ version. Have a suggestion that may make it more relevant to to those who feel that what is happing elsewhere in the world is a long way away and will only be important when ‘our’ govt and/or media reports it. NZ is very close to everyone and has a govt site with same urgency as USA govt site. Good prep page at http://www.moh.govt.nz/moh.nsf/indexmh/pandemicinfluenza-resources-checklists. Might help people who look, start to question why our govt has ‘nothing to worry about stance’ (some information attached to http://www.health.gov.au ) whereas our nearest neighbour (NZ)thinks H5N1 is a real worry (dedicated site) and is telling it’s residents to prepare for pandemic.

AnnieBat 02:04

Hi folks

Just setting up my new computer so I should be back with you all from tomorrow. The person that invents the “setup made easy”, including just one cable …. ah well, I can but dream!

Omega-Sydney - I am a Kiwi and consider myself so fortunate that our Ministry of Health has taken this all so seriously. Yesterday there were major promotions at train stations and bus stops, giving away water bottles and brochures encouraging people to preapre for an emergency.

RobTat 02:22

Omega-Sydney;

Hi and welcome to our humble Antipodian thread. Yes, good idea on the Kiwi site as a reference. Thanks for the suggestion, that’s just the kind of feedback that is helpful.

I just spoke with a very senior government official, who asked to remain nameless. And for good reason. Let’s just say that there is a “possibility” that the plans being made here in Oz are just “paper plans” for the sake of appearances. I truly hope that this is not the case, but I would suggest you prep like hell, folks cuz there ain’t going to be no cavalry. The more I learn, the greater the motivation to fully prep.

I’ll be facinated to see what comes out of the Clumpson exercise, and if it is made public, warts and all.

Blue – at 13:53

It would seem to be slowing down somewhat, yeh?

One case in Egypt and one more in Indonesia, but we may be seeing the end…what would you think about that statement?

AnnieBat 18:05

Blue - have you got your blinkers on again? “One more in Indonesia” = one more case made official to WHO. Have you been talking to government officials again? “Nothing to see here, move along”. The situation is not alarming but it most certainly has not gone away. Which country will be next?

RobTat 18:34

Blue;

It has ever been thus. Dies down for while, everybody gets hopeful, then bingo, another cluste or two or three.

This is what is expected. We’re in the early boiling phase to use the boiling water analogy. A few early bubbles….

That doesn’tmean the heat has been turned off.

Call of the Wild – at 21:25

Went back through the WHO chronology again. The 2005 article needs to be updated to include the Indo cases. If you include the Indo situation, it’s a disaster coming.

I’m also starting to think like some gov’ts reportedly think. That is, it’s impossible to combat a large scale pandemic. Just let it do what it always does and that is burn through the population until the virus dies down and immunity is acquired.

Think also of this; it may be doing its third wave in Asia now and mutating into a worse virus, higher CFR, which Europe, US and Australia will then get as a first wave.

Blue – at 22:36
 Well something still has to be infected…no govt. officials-just watching for the news breaks.

13 October 2006

Aussie Dad – at 05:03

From my son’s CSIRO magazine: Upcoming Forum, ‘Is the world ready for another ‘Bird Flu’ pandemic? Prof Ralf Tripp (Univ. of Georgia, USA) Wed 18 Oct, 5pm to 615pm,CSIRO Discovery, Clunies Ross St, Black Mountain, Canberra.

Blue – at 07:26
 whoah:http://www.mosnews.com/news/2004/10/28/pandemic.shtml

 ??!!

14 October 2006

kyangadac – at 04:29

anybody here participating in Operation Cumpston - it starts next weem - I believe.

RobTat 19:26

Hi kyangadac. Yes starts Monday. I’m trying to leave a message for David Nabarro who will be here for the exercise. I wish I was participating, wouldn’t you love to be a fly on the wall?

There is a news piece today about the IC conference in Hobart, where they are estimating the CFR to be 35%. This is the first media piece I’ve seen that has a higher CFR than the usual 0.6% nonsense that is promulgated by TPTB.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200610/s1765033.htm

I hope the word is getting out.

AvianAsylumat 21:25

Yes we would all love to hear what real stories come out from the exercise.

with summer on the horizon its hard to think of a flu epidemic - it seems more realistic in Europe with darkening days etc… makes it hard to motivate for prepping! when the beach beckons

16 October 2006

AnnieBat 03:52

I have just posted an item to the news thread about South Australia increasing funding for BF - gowns, masks and gloves for HCWs but here is a great quote from the article

“Health Minister John Hill says northern Australia is more at risk of getting the disease, but South Australia still needs to be prepared.”

Hellooo - last time I looked, I did not see a massive solid inpenetrable bubble covering SA - there is definitely one over this guy’s thinking!

RobTat 04:10

AnnieB;

Welcome back and sorry to hear about your techno troubles. Don’t cha just hate computers when they don’t work !

I heard South Australia will keep out a pandemic coming down from northern Australia by having every car crossing the state border monitored for fever, so everyone will have their temperature taken just like it was Random Breath Testing (RBT). But instead it will be CTT (Comprehensive Temperature Testing). All those that have a high fever will be turned back at the border and a full history of every contact they have had in the last 48 hours will be taken and sent to Canberra where they will correlate the data and then have teams of thousands of epidemiologists track down every contact. Oh and they’ll do the same for flights in from northern Australia as well.

AnnieBat 04:57

Well RobT I think that is still being very short-sighted - why are they going to let anyone from “up north” anywhere near the south? After all, the only reason they would be moving south is to avoid the BF so just turn them all around and send them back! Close the airports to all non-SA flights - just do a state-wide SIP. Afterall, there is plenty of time to plan for it - at least 2–3 years before anything could possibly happen up north anyway according to the same person (see the rest of the article).

As to techno troubles - if you want to read more, go to the thread “things to do while bugging out” ;-)

RobTat 07:37

Hey AnnieB, I was just kidding! Sorry, I have a warped sense of humour. Of course it is ridiculous if anyone thinks they can keep the pandemic contained.

I read your thread re your adventures with the computers, that was what I was referring to.

17 October 2006

AnnieBat 04:15

Hi RobT - sorry - no offence taken - I thought it was humorous too - hence my logical suggestions above ;-)

Anyway, according to this report, you have absolutely nothing to worry about!

Australia ready for bird flu - Abbott [link http://tinyurl.com/y2xe87 ]

By Paul Osborne October 17, 2006 12:00

AUSTRALIA was as well-prepared for an outbreak of bird flu as any country but more drugs and equipment would be needed if it happened, federal Health Minister Tony Abbott said today. More than 1000 state and federal government officials today took part in a $4 million exercise at Brisbane international airport to test the country’s preparedness for an outbreak of avian influenza.

Chief medical officer Professor John Horvath said Exercise Cumpston `06 was essential to safeguard the nation in the case of a pandemic. “We know that there’s continuing evidence of poultry disease in our region and the WHO (World Health Organisation) put the risk level at an arbitrary 10 per cent,” Prof Horvath said.

“I don’t believe this has changed over a period of time, so our level of risk continues to be low, but real - therefore, exercises like this are essential so (that) we are appropriately trained and prepared.”

“If it happened tomorrow, obviously we would like to have more drugs, but we do have what, by international standards, is a very large stockpile and we are constantly adding to it,” Mr Abbott said.

<snip>

“If we did have a pandemic outbreak almost nothing would be enough, by the same token our preparations are very far advanced and, by international standards, they are very complete preparations,” he said.

RobTat 18:38

AnnieB;

Sigh….Yes, well it’s good to know everything is OK. The Govmint has everything under control and if a pandemic does arrive, our preps are “very far advanced”.

I missed the piece on ABC 6:30 news yesterday on the Cumpston exercise. Could someone who saw it give us a brief review on what you saw, please?

18 October 2006

AnnieBat 05:41

RobT, I haven’t read much but, by the sound of it, the testing that has just been carried out in Oz dealt with isolation etc. I saw no mention of the ‘real’ issues - closing schools, maintaining power supplies, transportation etc etc - all the things that we know are the real-deal in this situation.

In fact, what reports like the one above does is make people even more complacent - if that was possible!

If it is any consolation, although I know there has been considerably more effort here (NZ) to cover off all aspects of such an event, the testing exercise is not scheduled until next year! An eathquake exercise is up first then a volcanic eruption exercise then the pandemic .. sigh as well!

You should be able to obtain a report of the exercise - public document?

21 October 2006

JulieMat 02:19

Fiday’s Courier Mail in Brisbane had an article on page 3 following Exercise Cumpsston. TPTB suggest all households stock up on non-perishable foodstuffs eg cereals and dried fruit plus water and “Vitamin Tablets”. Many have commented on it locally but there is no panic. It was also stated that people would have to be prepared to stay at home for extended periods of time.

AnnieBat 02:57

Hi JulieM and welcome - I think you are a new poster here?

I caught the article you mentioned in the News Summary today and thought it was quite good - at least it is telling people to something .. as you probably gather from this thread, RobT (and others) have despaired of anything along those lines being mentioned in Oz at all ;-)

JulieMat 05:30

Thanks AnnieB -yes a very new poster! Have been following you all for some months now and enjoy the local input. From first hand viewing our usually excellent Health System will not cope. “Chickens with their heads cut off??”

AnnieBat 06:11

JulieM - I think we all know that the health system will be overwhelmed so only so much can be done there … Of equal if not greater concern is maintaining electricity supplies, procedures for burials when mortuaries etc will be also overwhelmed, ensuring there is transportation for moving food and supplies rapidly at the last minute - the just-in-time system and the stocks of most supermarkets will give less than 24 hours supplies for most - but then if you have been following this and many other threads you already know this ..

I have been fortunate to know that most of this is already covered off in NZ - most of these considerations are part of our general emergency planning and the documents and procedures are quite public. Over the psat 6 months there have been some concerted campaigns to get NZer’s to prep - there is no way of gauging how effective this has been - I guess only time will tell. At least here you can talk about it with people you meet and not get taken for a raving nutter ..

meercat – at 06:32

Hi, I am a new poster, have been following the wiki for a long time and have learnt so much. Am in NZ and don’t get the impression that the general public are very concerned or prepping for bird flu at all. (unless everyone is doing it secretly!) I am wondering about the availability of the pneumovax vaccine being available in NZ. Also, I cannot seem to find powdered egg anywhere. Would appreciate any info, thanks.

meercat – at 06:39

sorry bout funny grammar, a bit weird posting instead of just reading..

AnnieBat 06:50

Hi meercat and welcome. Do not worry about grammar etc - getting the message across is the most important thing here.

As to powdered eggs and similar supplies, the best source I have found is the camping or sports supply shops. Some of the (very large) supermarkets carry a few items - look in the dried foods section. If you have access to some of the bulk catering-type wholesalers, they have some of the goods too.

As to pneumovax, I must admit I have not heard of it being regularly dispensed in NZ. You would need to talk to your doctor - let us know if you find anything out.

As to Kiwis prepping, there are the full range of plans going on - I have found people with plans to remove mum and kids to an isolated property to others who are yeah-yeah, plenty of time - just like prepping for a quake! As mentioned above, at least we are allowed to talk about it!

RobTat 09:35

JulieM; Welcome & thanks for spotting the article. I hadn’t seen it.

Well what do you know? Within a few days in Oz we’ve had a media piece on a conference that is talking about realistically possible CFR of 35% & then this one about having some preps. Good stuff, maybe the tide is beginning to turn….

23 October 2006

AnnieBat 00:12

There is a story picked up in today’s news about Oz wildlife testing showing no signs of BF - testing being carried out in Northern Australia. Link http://tinyurl.com/ydkj83

RobTat 04:21

Hi AnnieB;

Let’s all chant together so the media gets the message:

Bird flu is not the real problem. Bird flu is not the real problem. Bird flu is not the real…..

AnnieBat 04:27

LOL RobT - you will have to turn it into a rugby chant to be effective …

RobTat 04:31

Hey, what would be the Haka? C’mon, give us the Maori Haka !!!

AnnieBat 04:55

I was thinking more along the lines of waltzing matilda …

Once the jolly bird flu, settled on the billabong
Liked it in the shade of the coolibah tree
And it bred and it bred and waited til it reached the boil
You’ll come an get real sick with me!

Your turn …

RobTat 09:39

I can’t top that! Too late at night to try.

crfullmoon – at 10:28

Whomping Pandemic, Whomping Pandemic,

oh, what a whomping pandemic it’ll be,

Better prep, better prep, Disinfect that billabong…

AnnieBat 17:03

Along came a jumbuck and sat beside the birdie flu
Sure, you can hitch a ride around the place with me
And he laughed as he jumped and spread the bug about a bit
You’ll needs your preps if you want to out-live me …

RobTat 19:12

You’re really getting into this, arn’t you? You beat me to it on the second verse…and your’s is better LOL.

It’s sort of like the Haku thread awhile back. There were some really good ones.

 For those that are reading this slight, albeit mirthful diversion, in the thread and asking “How can people joke about such a serious matter?”, I can only say that it is probably part of the adjustment reaction. If you don’t know what that is, look it up, you’re probably in an adjustment reaction of your own.

Thanks AnnieB, it’s nice to know there are kindred spirits out there.

25 October 2006

Blue – at 05:46
 How do us ANZACs feel about this: http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2006-10/25/content_5245020.htm

 ??

 “!Crikey!”, is about all i can say at this point in time.
crfullmoon – at 06:53

Crikey, Blue -you didn’t miss “the list” did you? ;-)

Animals shown to be infected with H5N1

(now, I gotta Google “jumbuck”…and, stay outta your thread!)

Blue – at 20:30
 O.K.-  nice list.

 But, the above article wasn’t saying that these birds in North America had the Highly Pathogenic form of H5N1, but that they were susceptible to it.

 It’s a warning sign that seems to be going unheeded is all I am saying.

26 October 2006

AnnieBat 01:12

Blue - just so long as the american laughing gull isn’t another name for the cookaburra …

02 November 2006

AnnieBat 16:33

Hi team

We are now into November - do we want to retain a thread specifically for OZ/NZ preps and discussions or will we just link into the Lookout Post for the Region???

If we get more than 2(?) votes yes for a continued thread, I will start a November one - or someone could do it to reinforce their positive vote ;-)

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / The Chinese Governments Plot to Hide Their Role in Causing a Pandemic Original

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: The Chinese Governments Plot to Hide Their Role in Causing a Pandemic Original

We hold the freedom of speech and access to information very dear. While criticism of any government for pandemic flu related policies are entirely legitimate, appropriate, and useful topics of discussion, we do need to be careful about allegations regarding intent. It‚s one thing to point out wrong or harmful policies, it‚s quite another to suggest any of those policies were put out with the intention of procuring the current negative consequences.

We entirely agree that ineffective vaccines are contributing to our current problems, We also absolutely prefer that international researchers working on the frontline of pandemic research should have access to epidemiologic and virology data and/or samples wherever in the world outbreaks might be occurring. However, different governments have different standards as to what constitutes libelous or seditious language. Therefore, we would prefer that contributors express their opinions in ways that will allow as many people in different countries to access the information as possible.

-The Moderators

01 November 2006

Monotreme – at 22:24

The Chinese Government’s Plot to Hide Their Role in Causing a Pandemic

Disclaimer: The criticisms in the posts that follow are aimed entirely at the Chinese government and at Chinese vaccine makers. It is not directed at Chinese citizens or at people of Chinese descent.

On conspiracy theories: A conspiracy is an organized attempt to secretly achieve a goal through deception. The term “conspiracy theorist” is currently a term of derision and is often confused with mental instability, in particular paranoia. In fact, conspiracies are common and will documented. The take over of Russia after the fall of Csar was the result of a very elaborate conspiracy on the part of the communists. The attempted cover-up of the break-in at the Watergate hotel was a conspiracy that occurred at the highest levels of the US government. On a more mundane level, conspiracies occur routinely in every office over relatively unimportant things like parking spaces and raises. We hide from the word conspiracy because we don’t want to be lumped in with the mentally unstable who use the internet to distribute their ravings. We do this at our peril. Investigative journalism is largely dead. We have no Edward R. Murrow. We have no Jack Anderson. We have only…ourselves. If we don’t dig up the facts and support the few brave souls who take a stand against the Chinese government’s plot to hide vital information about the development of H5N1 in China, then no-one else will.

What follows is a conspiracy theory. Specifically, I believe that vaccine makers in China and the policies of the Government of China are responsible for the rapid of evolution of multiple strains of lethal H5N1. Further, through lies and inappropriate influence on the WHO, they have conspired to coverup their role in this tragedy. In spite of repeated warnings by eminent scientists and repeated promises by the Chinese government that they would be more transparent, they have persisted in behaviour that puts the world at risk of a catastrophic event without parallel.

The children who have died of H5N1 gasping their parents arms died because of the policies of the Chinese government. Their blood is on President’s Hu’s hands. It is time to rise up and say “Enough!” Because if don’t, our children are next.

Tom DVM – at 22:56

Monotreme. Tell us what you really think. /:0)

What role is the World Health Organization playing in this conspiracy?

How big is the regulators role in the conspiracy.

Note: Monotreme, I have found that 75mg. of Rantidine is highly effective as a preventative for heartburn. I looked in my crystal ball and I expect you to have a major case of it after the eighth of November.

Having learned to live with Dick Thompson and friends at the WHO over the past two years…I can offer you some councilling after Dr. Margaret Chan becomes Director General.

Medical Maven – at 22:56

Monotreme, the horse has already left the barn. The only recourse is to prepare ourselves better than they do so that they can not possibly profit from their incompetence, cover-up, and reactive malevolence towards the rest of the World.

We must each do our part to “harden” our nations so as to withstand a H5N1 panflu (China Flu).

I do not want to survive this probable disaster only to see the “favored few” of China pick up the pieces.

Monotreme – at 23:17

Tom DVM – at 22:56

What role is the World Health Organization playing in this conspiracy?

Margaret Chan has been the pandemic flu czar at the WHO for the last couple of years. During this time, she has praised the Chinese government for it’s transparency even while they were lying about both animal and human cases and refusing to provide samples and sequences. Her reward for this disgusting toadyism is that she is likely to be being named the next Director-General of the WHO. She thinks so. The Chinese government thinks so. However, I think there is a chance this could be derailed if we make a big enough stink about it. It certainly would not hurt for us to write our representatives and express our strong objections to her installation.

If Margaret Chan becomes the Director-General, all hope of applying pressure to China to release more information on what has happened with H5N1 will be gone.

Let’s at least try to stop this. The people who will vote for the next Director-General are members of the WHO Executive Board. Here is a list of the members.

The United States Board member is Dr J. Agwunobi, Assistant Secretary for Health, Department of Health and Human Services, Washington DC.

The Australian Board member is Ms J. Halton, Secretary, Department of Health and Ageing, Canberra, ACT.

Let’s write our elected officials and request that the Board members from our countries *not* vote for Margaret Chan. Shigeru Omi is the best candidate, IMO.

Monotreme – at 23:30

Medical Maven – at 22:56

…the horse has already left the barn.

Not quite, but the door is open and it’s moving in that direction.

I have been given new hope regarding the potential for the WHO to play a positive role by Dr. Julie Hall, a WHO infectious disease expert stationed in Beijing. She has spoken up strongly criticising the Chinese government for their deceptions, most recently today in this article:

WHO Blasts Chinese Gov’t on Bird Flu.

We must each do our part to “harden” our nations so as to withstand a H5N1 panflu (China Flu).

Agreed. But have you read your state’s or country’s pandemic flu plan? I’ve read about half of the US state plans so far. Almost all of them yoke their preparations to the WHO phase system. Want to know why your state has not started to prepare? It’s because the WHO says we are at phase 3. Serious preparations don’t start until phase 4. Who decides when to change the phase? The Director-General. If we get the right DG, it’s possible that they will declare phase 4 before the pandemic begins. This would send a serious signal to the states to prepare. If we get Margaret Chan, phase 4 will not be declared until after the pandemic has begun. And if you live in a state that hasn’t prepared, the odds are, your personal preps aren’t going to be enough to save you.

ReallyDisappointedat 23:30

Monotreme? Can you give some examples of how Margaret Chan has praised the Chinese government?

Many Cats – at 23:32

Her reward for this disgusting toadyism is that she is likely to be named the next Director-General of the WHO.

I would take it from this that toads are immune to H5N1.

Monotreme – at 23:45

CHINA: UN officials praise openness of Beijing

Margaret Chan feels more confident on running for Director-General of WHO

Chan said she felt actually a bit nervous on knowing she was backed by the central government as the candidate for the position of WHO Director-General. However, the central government’s full support and close coordination from the government of HKSAR has heightened her confidence.

‘Chan stressed twice that she will do her utmost to live up to everyone’s expectations.’‘

Vice premier wu meets Margaret Chan

A picture is worth a thousand words

China gives full backing to Margaret Chan for WHO director-general

China backs Margaret Chan as WHO chief: official

A senior Chinese official said on Friday that the central government endorses Margaret Chan from Hong Kong in her bid to become Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO).

“The central government believes the election is very important,” said Chinese Assistant Foreign Minister Cui Tiankai.

PRC backs woman for WHO chief

Chan insisted that China has learned from SARS, and commended its openness in combatting bird flu. She said lapses in reporting bird flu cases mostly happened at the village level, where people have struggled to confirm infections.

“China is prepared to act and play its role as a major country,” she said. “And one of the reasons for nominating me as a candidate for the post is because they would like to make a greater contribution to global public health.”

But Thomas Abraham, author of Twenty-first Century Plague: The Story of SARS, said China still lacks transparency.

“It’s not an open system yet, and I think they have a long way to go. Information about disease is still something that you can only publish if it’s officially announced,” said Abraham, a journalism professor at the University of Hong Kong.


ReallyDisappointed – at 23:30

Is this enough, or do you want me to find more?

Tom DVM – at 23:50

Monotreme. Post the one where someone said that Dr. Chan wasn’t getting a fair shake from the rest of the world and that she did a good job during the SARS outbreak.

Hi Many Cats. Oh! That was a tempting lead in but I didn’t have room for another foot in my mouth tonight.

Many Cats – at 23:53

Hi, TomDVM!!!!! Yes, we already know that toads are immune to SARS…

Tom DVM – at 23:55

/:0)

02 November 2006

Monotreme – at 00:09

The Role of Bad Vaccines in China in Producing the Lethal Strains of H5N1

A number of influenza experts have suggested that improper use of vaccines in China has resulted in the extremely high lethality of H5N1. Some examples:

Expert: Bad vaccines may trigger China bird flu

Bird Flu Experts Warn Against Bad Vaccines

Earlier this month, Chinese agriculture officials reported that unlicensed vaccines had been sold to farmers in the northeastern province of Liaoning, causing what chief government veterinarian Jia Youling called “incalculable” harm. Officials have reported four outbreaks in Liaoning in recent weeks. More than 10 million birds have been destroyed to combat the disease, and health officials are now investigating whether a local poultry worker contracted it.

Farmers in Liaoning had used a vaccine approved by the government solely for testing, according to Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post. The Shanghai-registered manufacturer issued a statement saying its salesmen had smuggled the vaccine to the province and sold it in a market.

After the Agriculture Ministry’s disclosure, U.N. officials in Beijing asked the government for details, including specifics about the vaccines used. Roy Wadia, spokesman for the World Health Organization in Beijing, said the government has not responded.

The concern about substandard medicines assumed greater urgency last week when Chinese officials announced they were extending their inoculation campaign to cover every chicken and duck in the country, which by some estimates accounts for a quarter of the world’s poultry.

There have been numerous reports of bad vaccines being used on people. How does the Chinese government respond to protests of parents whose children were crippled by these vaccines?

Parents press China for answer to bad, fake drugs

Cradled in her mother’s arms, tiny Liang Jiayi stares blankly. Foam begins to flow from her mouth and her lifeless body suddenly goes into a spasm.

“She’s cramping,” her father Liang Yongli cries out as he and his wife massage the contorted limbs of the five-year-old.

Jiayi used to be lively and mischievous but everything changed when she was given a vaccine shot against Japanese encephalitis B in August 2003 in a government hospital near her home in Jiangmen, in China’s southern Guangdong province.

[snip]

Liang knows of at least six other children in Jiangmen who were left paralyzed after such vaccinations and he cycled 6,000 km (4,000 miles) from his home to Beijing in May 2004 to plead for help.

“I filled out many forms but there has been no reply even though they promised me one in two months. An official said it was my bad luck and that this is my destiny,” said Liang.

Asked about these cases in Jiangmen, there was no immediate response from China’s Health Ministry.

Chinese police haul off “bad vaccine” protesters

Bird Guano – at 00:20

Let us not forget that China also EXPORTED those same bad animal vaccines to Vietnam for use in their vaccination programs.

Monotreme – at 00:26

Tom DVM – at 23:50

You must mean the post by AnnieB – at 19:43 on the Election of a New Director General At the WHO Part 2.

The link to actual story no longer works (cue conspiracy music). Good thing we have a record of that article on FluWiki :)

Some excerpts:

Take the Sars outbreak of 2003. Dr Chan was then chief health adviser to the Hong Kong government and responsible for determining strategy. Although the outbreak came to an end fairly swiftly, it killed a total of 298 people in Hong Kong.

A subsequent enquiry by the Hong Kong legislature concluded that Dr Chan’s response to the Sars outbreak was unsatisfactory, condemning her for not attaching sufficient importance to soft intelligence on the epidemic and not taking account of the heavy passenger flow between Guangdong and Hong Kong.

If Dr Chan had announced the epidemic in Guangdong in the two months before the outbreak arrived in Hong Kong, hospitals would have had time to prepare. Instead, Hong Kong’s hospitals acted like an incubator for the disease before it spread out into the community.

More egregiously, Dr Chan spent the vital early days of the outbreak wrangling with the WHO over its choice of the name for the disease: Sars.

This choice was coincidentally similar to the official abbreviation for Hong Kong, the Special Administrative Region (SAR). Instead of immediately setting in train the necessary procedures to tackle the outbreak, Dr Chan wasted time trying to save China’s face by protesting against the name Sars.

Without this delay many lives could have been saved.

Dr Chan’s handling of avian flu in Hong Kong was equally inept. When the H5N1 virus was first identified in 1997, nobody knew if it could spread to humans. Dr Chan sought to reassure a jittery public by declaring, I eat chicken every day.

However, as it emerged that poultry were dying in great quantities, the Department of Food Hygiene decided to intervene before a crisis developed. Even though Dr Chan had famously told everyone to carry on eating chicken, the Hong Kong government slaughtered approximately 1.6 million and banned all chicken imports.

So it was actually the head of the Department of Food Hygiene who took the tough decision that risked embarrassing Beijing. Dr Chan, meanwhile, was more concerned about saving her boss’s face than with protecting public health.

enza – at 01:41

Uh oh…

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Just Saw an Ad on TV For

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Just Saw an Ad on TV For

02 November 2006

anonymous – at 13:58

GlaxoSmith Kline (a drug company) It is a bird flu prep ad telling you to go to their website for bird flu information. It is interesting. The drug companies now starting to hawk their wares, now if I could only get my doctor to prescribe some of those meds for my preps. Could someone please post the url for the website, I still don’t have the hang of it yet, thanks.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 14:09

http://www.gsk.com/ or just http://tinyurl.com/y2hjqf

crfullmoon – at 14:28

http://www.gsk.com/infocus/influenza.htm

Doesn’t tell people there will be no way to make enough vaccines until years from now,

doesn’t mention how quickly resistance to antivirals occurs,

and doesn’t tell the public to stock up for long-term supply chain disruptions, and get their communites planning how to cope.

If bird flu virus becomes pandemic, high death rates possible: WHO report by Helen Branswell

“(CP) - There’s no guarantee the H5N1 avian flu virus would become less deadly to people if it triggers a pandemic, a new report from the World Health Organization warns.

A group of eminent influenza scientists gathered by the WHO last month concluded there is no reason to believe that the virus, which kills roughly 60 per cent of people who become infected, would become any milder if it evolves to become a pandemic strain.

The report, based on that meeting, cautions governments against spending a lot of money to stockpile existing H5N1 vaccines. It also reveals that a low level of H5N1 viruses found in wild and domestic birds appear to be naturally resistant to oseltamivir, the main flu drug being stockpiled against a future pandemic.”…

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Warning Signs

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Warning Signs

27 October 2006

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 09:34

Someone here, who knows how, needs to create some warning signs we can print out, laminate, or enlarge and reproduce on foamcore sign board, etc.

There are billions of For Sale or Yard Sale signs EVERYwhere—we need just as many “Quarantine” (sp?), “Infection-Do Not Enter”, or “We Need Medical Help” signs for our homes with a white strip on bottom where we can write our phone numbers so we can put them on our front doors & neighbors or first responders will have a clue what’s going on with us inside our homes. Or so that it might slow down intruders, maybe.

I want to see a sign in every cutesy, preppy or discount retail store, every medical office, every bank & ATM, every hardware store, every business office, every food vending sales machine, every restaurant, every grocery store, EVERY business window in the world, that says that they practice Pan Flu Safety Measures and I want ‘em big enough that I can see them as I drive thru the parking lot, so I’ll know whether to stop or not.

I want a symbol as recognizable as the red circle with a slash line thru it and will become as “prestigeous” as the BBB sign is in the USA - it should maybe be PPP unless that already stands for something else. I think business ones should have a small logo of the Preparedness Ribbon in a corner & large print wording Pandemic Precautions Practiced (PPP), simple, short, clear.

Maybe have a short checklist of white spaces like the phone number space I mentioned earlier, where 3 things they practice like social distancing, use masks, use Clorox or offer free surgical masks (I know, but better than nothing) or laytex gloves or whatever are PREPRINTED so it’s a consistent, readable-from-a-distance size and one or two spaces where they can write in other efforts they are making. And a space designated for their phone number — for USA 9 LARGE white blocks, one for each number of their phone number (to help ensure they’ll write in large block numbers) so I can call from outside to ask more questions about what precautions they take or to find out what they have in stock.

And there needs to be a simple Instructions/Suggestions sheet that can be printed on the back telling them to write in large block letters & numbers, use large permanent marker, suggest more things they can do, etc.

There’s stuff EVERY business CAN do to make effort….I want my spending power to go to them, above someone who’s not interested at all in making effort, leaving it totally up to me to protect myself (I know it ultimately IS up to me, but I want to know they’re taking care of THEMSELVES too).

What so you think? Anyone able to and interested in designing some signs?

crfullmoon – at 11:44

(I still think it would help to know what your locals, police, nat’l guard, military plan to do; wouldn’t want to get put on some boxcar to somewhere, from having the wrong sign up when they were actually checking house-to-house…)

labsafety.com has signs

Caution; No Pedestrian Traffic, Caution; Face Shield Area, Caution: Personal Protective Equipment Required Beyond This Point, and, lots of “bilingual” signs…

Have you talked to the local Chamber of Commerce about pandemic preparednesss yet?

What does your local pandemic/emergency committee plan to do, to find out who needs help, or, how to signal quarantine?

preppiechick – at 14:59

Here’s one from a quick google search. Probably the best would be one like this, from your own state or municipality…much more credible.

iowa quarantine sign

preppiechick – at 15:03

Sooo sorry! i don’t know why it doesn’t link exctly, but if you type in “quarantine sign” in the search bar at the top, it will be the first item.

orange-brown – at 17:08

http://www.seton.net.au/search.cfm

has a number of quarantine signs

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 17:34

Nope you’re missing the point…not generic, specific. PPP on them. I apparently wasn’t clear….I’ll try again later somehow.

AlabamaPrepperat 18:43

Sort of like the Underwriters Lab label, you can be assured standards have been met, guidelines are followed, and measures are in place for your protection.

Similar idea behind the Board of Health restaurant inspection reports posted at the cash register.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 22:27

Yep! Except it would all have to be voluntary-not gov’t run at all. If there were pandemic specific signs already out there, I’d just buy reasonably priced ones off ebay but there aren’t any. I just thought so many people got behind the ribbon thing, someone might see the benefits of this as a helpful visual. Guess I’m on my own with this one.

02 November 2006

crfullmoon – at 13:55

If “every cutesy, preppy or discount retail store, every medical office, every bank & ATM, every hardware store, every business office, every food vending sales machine, every restaurant, every grocery store, EVERY business” had been got shown the Ten things the WHO thought “you” needed to know about pandemic influenza, and, notified when the US pandemicflu.gov site went up back in Oct 2005 and, then seen the business planning checklists, and, had enough sense to monitor the H5N1 news and cfr rather than trust their lives to politicians and bureaucrats, your idea might have some traction.

Most individuals, businesses and chamber of commerces are not going to do anything to prepare themselves, nor their employees and their families, nor find supply chain solutions, until they are sure pandemic is occurring, and then, their options are severly narrowed…

Officials didn’t want the public “to panic” so, they aren’t going to be able to tell them to prepare.

See who’s around to react and what gets cobbled together afterwards, I guess.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / New Rumors X

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: New Rumors X

30 October 2006

Bronco Bill – at 11:08

Continued from here

Average Concerned Mom – at 13:36

Bronco Bill — What??? The Martians have landed in New Jersey? There was NOTHING in the NY Times about that.

What’s your source?

(And more importantly, did they bring preps?)

ADuckOrangeMercureyat 14:04

Flimsy rumours…

Saw my [someone] this weekend. Was not able to speak about BF, but seeded info, will let it stew, and try and work on the subject in a week or so. As far as [someone] is concerned, “nobody speaks about it, therefore [personal pronoun] is not going to put [personal pronoun] reputation at risk by asking questions”. We’re talking very hight level here. Sigh.

Asked my other [someone] to ask [personal pronoun] colleagues to make local inquiries in wet markets/populous streets in Thailand. Waiting for their return to Europe.

Asked one of my informed colleague if there was any more background medical noise in his circles - but this colleague has retreated in a shell and won’t speak anymore than what is on Google search. This colleague is intensifying his prepping - large preps - well water and independent main heating.

Chatted with another very informed colleague this am. I am informed that many of my other colleagues are now asking awkward questions to this particular professional unit. There is a battle going on in my workplace about what should be done/said. The broken link in this chain, the decider, will need to be convinced of the real threat of BF, this will be hard to do. My colleague is not in a position to make decisions even though pushing this link really hard. The concern about BF in my little world started three years ago, but some of the TPTB are in total denial. Measure are being thought of for the protection of all of our colleagues, but at the moment these remain at the state of discussions. My colleague has undertaken confidential and international contacts at the highest medical levels in Europe. My colleague is very respected in such circles. In this region of the world, it appears also that professional knowledge in making mass vaccination has been lost in the last 30–40 years. Something is being done about this through personal channels.

My feeling is that we are starting to see the building of informal alliances, underground ones, using friends and friends of friends nets/contacts, which are seeking to promote prepping at all levels. People composing such networks may initially be non-deciders, but each one of them has family/friends here and there, up and down the social picture. Hopefully, this will be productive - the sooner the better.

We both agreed about threat assessment - when not if. We both agreed on the necessity for extensive preps, about infrastructure collapse, about life/business broken continuity… etc. just as on this site, according to our most pessimistic views. We also agreed that as long as the helm is empty across the road, nothing will happen in the way of declaring phase 4. We agreed further that even after the helm is filled, it will take weeks before the new captain can acquaint him/her self with the complexities of the situation. We also agreed that the economic implications of declaring phase 4 are frightening TPTB.

I also learned that unnamed people made threats of hellish retribution to others in my place of work, if themselves or families had happened to become contaminated three years ago during the last epidemic scare. It may well be that such behavious forced our PTB to take some preventative measure. Perhaps if those who behaved that way were to reiterate these nasty warnings, it might make things move faster. It is terrible to have to think this way. At the very least, I have no doubt that when TSHTF these threats may not only be words, but deeds.

My colleague mentions that BF is not the only scary illness, but also Chik and TB. My colleague holds no illusion, the caring professions will be the first dead - my colleauge is scared for [personal pronoun] life, nevertheless prepared to own up to duty. If TSHTF = 3 days for the whole planet. Thanks to people such as this person, some planning is moving ahead at the level of professional friendly groupings, but it’s not enough. As I do not belong to the same hierarchical structure, I have agreed to fill holes in areas where my colleague has tied hands. We will talk again about such practical steps.

I have had no return, yet, of other sources previously mentioned. This part looks like it might take time.

My PPF is on the one hand high - 7 - because of what I have heard in the last few days, on the other hand, hearing that such a colleague is taking active steps risking unemployment makes me want to lower my PPF a little.

I apologize for being so cryptic and using badly constructed sentences, but I am trying to protect myself and my sources. I cannot identify the jobs of these people nor their gender, neither their relationship to me. I am also wary of people searching the Google cache, hence some of roundabout way of writing this post.

If some of you readers of FW do identify me or those people mentioned, please understand my concern and do not shoot me down. Give me a ring and help me instead.

Circumstances have made it otherwise difficult for me to report much, in addition to which my home computer has lately been temperamental and I am posting this from work to be sure you do get it. I have been unable to have an uninterrupted flux of FW threads, the beast crashing often. I had been unwell too, but that is better now. I also have much work and a number of pressing issues to solve. Also, one reason I have been less seen here is that I need time to sort out in my head the best way for me to act, because once I have done so there is no going back, it’ll follow me the rest of my career/life. I am not a political or strategic person, so putting together all the bits in my head is difficult. And I am not prepared to risk the downfall of my job and that of those people who trust me.

This of course is the rumours thread. Yet, I would like my post to be a message of hope too. More and more people are asking questions and taking actions, though sometimes small, they will make a difference.

Tom DVM – at 14:16

A.D.O.M. Thank you for your comments and honesty.

When you get a computer that works…all of us would appreciate you discussing things at greater depth.

You don’t need to worry about confidences…many who have to maintain them have been posting here for some time without any problem.

We wouldn’t allow any harm to come to you. /:0)

cottontop – at 14:19

TomDVM- you were the first one that came to mind. Actually, I’d like tp propose everyone one you from fluwiki. Heck, we couldn’t do any worse!

OKbirdwatcherat 14:20

ADuckOrangeMercurey - Thanks so much for your efforts and posting here. It is greatly appreciated:)

heddiecalifornia – at 14:38

Seems like there has been a LOT of negative news about the future of the U.S. and world economies lately. My service provider start page has had several news items on how bad things are, the newsservices and financial sites I check in on regularly have become very negative, the radio station I listen to also had projections of a very bad future (excessive borrowing and debt by states and individuals, mortgage foreclosures, housing bubble bursting, more job losses, future constrictions of goods and services — even that we might have a 1930′s style depression and melt down. Even the GAO senior accountant is having a campaign and traveling tour about how bad our financial futures are.

I am really wondering just what the score is. Is this driven by the current political campaigns? Are people waking up? Is the main stream media finally waking up, or just trying to make us anxious? Maybe are they trying to prepare us for what can come about with pandemics and general collapse, a la Jericho?

Stilll more impetus to store away things for some kind of disaster ---

Leo7 – at 14:43

ADOM:

I understand, but please elaborate on the epidemic potential three years ago that didn’t break out. What last epidemic scare?

inthehills – at 14:45

just saw (10–30) on a respectable blog, that v.p. cheney is insisting on purell usage before ,during,and after all handshaking events.people in line are squirted before contact. read into it as you will.

NJ Jeeper – at 14:46

Heddie, Wait until November 8th, and you will will all of a sudden read how much better things are for our country. The electin will be over, and hopefully we can get back to some semblance of truthful media coverage. On both sides.

Northstar – at 14:49

Military rumors: Some activity at the local ANG base: heavy transport planes going over (not many), the jets are up again (but not in a big way) and there’s almost a continuous thrum of aircraft of some sort — helicopters, etc.

Humming but not buzzing at this point.

diana – at 14:56

message understood. Glad I checked rumors before leaving. My P factor has gone up one notch to 1.5..Thank you for posting.ADOM…

FrenchieGirlat 15:32

Leo7 – at 14:43 — ADOM: I understand, but please elaborate on the epidemic potential three years ago that didn’t break out. What last epidemic scare?

SARS




I passed by WHO on my way home, 8.30 pm., but no lights other than usual, cleaning ladies and probably the occasional staff who stays in to surf on the Internet rather than doing it at home, or sharpening pencils for the next day :-) The extra parking lot is empty. Saw a car with WHO registered plates on the road, obviously having left the office late, probably for those reasons above :-D

Leo7 – at 15:37

FrenchieGirl:

Thanks—how could I forget? My mind was on influenza reading ADOM. I’m straight now.

Bird Guano – at 15:41

The old “pizza census” may apply to WHO if it gets bad.

Definitely something to watch. Catering and parking lots.

Although I don’t think it will be pizza in Switzerland. LOL

Tom DVM – at 16:05

“I passed by WHO on my way home, 8.30 pm., but no lights other than usual…”

Frenchie Girl Have you ever been around when the World Health Organization parking lot was full and the building lights on late into the night?

FrenchieGirlat 16:19

Hi Tom,

Yes. Previous to my present job, though admittedly some years ago, I worked exactly across the road on the 9th floor with a plunging view of the building, and it was a habit of some of us to stay late in the evening.

I have also lately gone home on that route more frequently. Part of the front car park is shielded from the main road, but the other car park, which is empty, lies along that road and is reserved for WHO staff.

As regards working late when circumstances demand it, there is no staff union to forbid it. Such organizations are plutocratic, and you are at the disposal of your boss the DG, through your own hierarchy. If work demands, you cancel everything and you stay till told to go home or sleep on the floor in the office. Period. So if all hell is breaking loose, the lights will be ablaze and the outside reserved car park will be full. It usually is the case during the regular World Health Assembly.

Also, though I don’t know this for a fact, the WHO is now fairly cramped for the number of staff, and any big meetings will be held within the United Nations, just down the road. If TSHTF, the UN building will be ablaze too and its car parks full or almost.

FrenchieGirlat 16:24

In close proximity, there are also:

The World Council of Churches
The International Labour Office (my old 9th floor)
The International Committee of the Red Cross
The World Intellectual Property Organization
The European Broadcasting Union
The Russian Federation Mission
The American Mission

Not far:
The United Nations High Commission for the Refugees
The International Meteorological Organization
The World Trade Organization

And others, missions, embassies, smaller intergovernmental organizations, international hotels, etc. and I probably forget a few.

Tom DVM – at 16:27

Frenchie Girl. Thanks. I guess my question was not if the lights were on during political meetings such as the World Health Assembly Meetings…but whether the lights were on and for how long during the SARS outbreak of 2003.

FrenchieGirlat 16:32

Honest, Tom, I didn’t pay attention at the time. I was much into gathering info on SARS which I’d seen coming a bit earlier than others thanks to Promed - I’d found Promed searching for info for my 2nd husband’s health, and trying to get our PTB to act on SARS - which did happen, though too late really. We dodged the bullet with SARS, I don’t think we will with BF.

Tom DVM – at 16:35

Frenchie Girl. Thanks.

Klatu – at 16:45

‘’‘FrenchieGirl – at 16:32 wrote:

“ We dodged the bullet with SARS, I don’t think we will with BF.” ‘’‘


The gun may still be loaded - don’t put away your running shoes.

LONDON, Aug. 17, 2006 (UPI)

“Zhong and Zeng said that SARS is currently under control in China but has not been eradicated. They suggested that all medical professionals should collaborate closely in the future to contain emergent infections, public officials should work closely with these professionals to create useful public policy on infectious disease, and an international monitoring system should be set up for early alerts.” - excerpt

Both physicians work at the Guanzhou Institute of Respiratory Diseases in Guangzhao, China.”

http://www.upi.com/HealthBusiness/view.php?StoryID=20060817-042411-2622r

http://www.fluwikie2.com/pmwiki.php?n=Forum.NewRumorsX

FrenchieGirlat 17:00

Klatu – at 16:45 - that was my last check of the thread before going to bed with a large glass of BB RWFW or whatever it is that Bronco Bill brews. You really want to give me nightmares, don’t you? Ohhh sssshhhugar. Today was a real heavy day. Having looked into the eyes of someboday scared for her life with BF… knowing she’d die giving others a chance to live, and now seeing Yi, Peiris and Webster on the news thread admitting to a new Fujian strain, and you give me that on SARS now? Urgh. Too much for my frailed nerves. Good night y’all.

Medical Maven – at 18:43

Great to see you back FrenchieGirl. We missed you and hope you are totally on the mend. And don’t drag down your current health with worry. What will be, will be.

cottontop – at 19:13

For lack of a better thread to post this on, I chose this one. I went to my second home tonight, my local library, and guess what my friend had waiting on me? Flu- The story of the great influenza of 1918 and the search for the virus that caused it.-author Gina Kolata I am really excited to finally read something about this, and asked my friend to see if they could find any more books on this, especailly for New York state. I want to read how this state handled it and what the people went through. I want to relay what I read to you good people, and start a thread for this. Is this something you will be interested in? Saw a picture of a young Jeffery Taubenberger in the book. Let me know what you think.

Tom DVM – at 20:17

cottontop

I definitely think it is a good idea. The more information the better really. Sometimes one isolated piece of information can be mined from these histories that might become very significant later.

Tom DVM – at 20:20

Frenchie Girl. Based on Medical Maven’s comments, I must have missed the fact that you haven’t been feeling well. I hope you are feeling better. Take care of yourself.

cottontop – at 20:38

TomDVM- I ask the question because of time restraints on myself, and there is already so much to read, I’m wondering if we need one more. I do think it is revelant to this virus, and to our prepardness, and more to be learned on how people dealt with this, perhaps on a daily basis, and cities as well. There is a picture of baseball players on the field wearing masks! Who would have thought? Another picture shows an influenza ward with sheets hung between the beds in an attempt to contaian the virus. A man is turned away by a trolley conducter because he is not wearing a mask, in another picture. I think it’ll be interesting. Hope ya’ll do too.

Monotreme – at 20:38

ADuckOrangeMercurey – at 14:04

Thanks for your post. It confirms my own private conclusions based on read the tea leaves.

Here is my interpretation, FWIW.

The Chinese government does not want phase 4 declared until the pandemic has started. The reason is that this will trigger travel restrictions to affected areas which would obviously include mainland China. This would decimate their economy. It would also have ripple effects on other economies, most notably the US. What would the value of factory be in country with a big biohazard mark on it be? What would happen to the value of the companies that depend on cheap labor in China?

China has controlled the message coming out the WHO via it’s control of Margaret Chan, the panflu czar. The untimely death of the former Director-General now allows for the installation of Margaret Chan as DG - the only person who can declare phase 4. I’m sure China, and perhaps other countries as well, have made it clear that they do not want phase 4 declared until there is a new DG - a convenient pause. Once installed as DG, Margaret Chan will make the usual polite noises about preparedness, but if anything thinks she will apply pressure on China, the source of newly evolving strains of H5N1, to be transparent, well, I’ve got some extra special bottled water from Harbin to sell you.

The American CDC is has very close ties to the WHO. For whatever reason, they have agreed to de-emphasize the threat of a pandemic as much as possible. They have deliberately sought to undermine preparedness in US states by claiming that .25% CFR is the worst case scenario. Further, Nancy Cox, et al., published a study that had been done years ago showing that old strains of H5N1 did not form highly infectious viruses when artificially re-assorted with H3N2. The publication of this negative, and largely meaningless, data seems calculated to provide an excuse to de-emphasize preparedness despite the fact that newer strains of H5N1 were not studied and the fact that the 1918 strain, which H5N1 most closely resembles, did not evolve by reassortment but rather by direct adaptation to humans, which H5N1 shows every sign of doing.

The net effect of WHO and CDC propaganda has been to confuse public health officials and slow down preparedness. I don’t think everyone at the WHO or CDC has bought into this. Middle level scientists may realize that something is rotten, but they feel there is little they can do. They are also probably being kept in the dark regarding some of the data. Countries and US states that rely on the WHO and CDC for information are completely unprepared for a severe pandemic. However, there is another source of information. The US deparment of Homeland Security and some people in Secretary Leavitt’s group are much more concerned about the possibility of a severe pandemic. Their message is much more serious and focused than that coming from the CDC and WHO. States that listen to them have mounted very serious preps.

I also agree that there is bottom-up effort on the part of a number of scientists to alert the world. They are meeting considerable resistance from the WHO and CDC in getting their message out. Some of them are so frightened now that they are prepared to risk their careers to warn the world. We need to support them whenever possible.

treyfish – at 21:09

So if Chan wins ,that means stage 4 is purposely being held BACK,as far as i’m concerned and my prepping will reflect that.Chinese flu from now on.

Monotreme – at 21:40

treyfish – at 21:09

Yep.

H5N1 has always been Chinese flu. The fact that you have had any hesitation to call it that demonstates how effective Margaret Chan and China’s other agents have been at obscuring this obvious truth.

treyfish – at 22:05

Well you know ,we can’t play games with it anymore.I think i will refer to it as Chinese flu from now on.I like birds.They don’t deserve the bad rap and Chinese flu sounds more ominous.More one that people will pay attention too.”Who” named it bird flu anyway?Should i have to guess?Yes ,i’ve found most diseases are prone to come from China,but to have them help it along with dangerous and inefficient vaccines makes the name more fitting to me.How could it be called anything different?If the media called it “Chinese flu” officially,i’m sure the reaction would be quite alarming.Sounds dangerous NOW,does’nt it?

Goju – at 22:07

Can I get a small order of spare ribs with my Chinese flu?

temp man – at 22:11

Fuji Flu.

I like it.

Rolls off the tongue.

fujiflu.com

it’s even available….

treyfish – at 22:15

Chinfluenza

JV – at 22:17

China Chan Pan Flu

Goju – at 22:24

Pan Fried Flu

Monotreme – at 22:34

I also favored “Hu Flu”, in an honor of the President of China, the one person most responsible for allowing the use of bad vaccines and covering up the consequences.

Goju – at 22:35

Hu Flu? Who knew!

Tom DVM – at 22:47

China Flu

bgw in MT – at 22:52

Thanks, ADOM, for the information. We appreciate it so very much. We have got to stay focused on this prepping business.

Monotreme, you have convinced me about Margaret Chan. If she is from the Chinese mainland instead of Hong Kong, she still has close family in China. I would think that would effect her thinking, too. Well, her election is not a sure thing yet. Let’s hope the people that will decide on the new DG realize the implications of their decision. Thanks, for the analysis.

DennisCat 22:55

WHO flu

Wonderer – at 22:58

bgw in MT, Do you truly put any hope in people doing the right thing? I don’t. The pieces are all falling into place for a collapse of unprecedented size and scope.

Monotreme – at 23:07

bgw in MT – at 22:52

Actually she is from Hong Kong, but was widely criticised during the SARs debacle for giving in to Mainland Chinese pressure and not warning people in time.

But she is definitely China’s Candidate for the WHO DG. For example, see this:

Dr. Margaret Chan - China’s Candidate for DG of WHO

MAinVAat 23:13

A “little bird” is wispering in my ear: Given the number of candidates for DG of WHO, is it possible that there will need to be a run off if not one candidate gets a majority? Call it a woman’s intuition, but I have an uneasy feeling that the election will not be settled on the first ballot. I thought I saw a series of dates for the election — like Nov 5, 6, 7th. If that is true than might there be balloting until one candidate emerges triumphant, such as what happens when the Pope is elected?

DennisCat 23:16

who votes for the DG?

Monotreme – at 23:18

More on China’s support for Margaret Chan:

Margaret Chan more confident on running for Director-General of WHO

Chan said she felt actually a bit nervous on knowing she was backed by the central government as the candidate for the position of WHO Director-General. However, the central government’s full support and close coordination from the government of HKSAR has heightened her confidence.

Chan stressed twice that she will do her utmost to live up to everyone’s expectations.

Check out the second picture. Although a picture tells a thousand words, here’s a few more:

Chinese Vice Premier Wu Yi ® shakes hands with Margaret Chan, Assistant Director-General for Communicable Diseases of the World Health Organization (WHO), during their meeting in Beidaihe, a summer seaside resort in north China’s Hebei

“China is willing to make a bigger contribution to world health development and recommends you run for the position of WHO Director-General as China’s candidate”, Wu told Chan, stressing that China considers Chan’s leadership skills, sense of responsibility, professional background and devotion to health issues give her the right profile for the post.


Anyone think DG Chan will ask Chinese Vice Premier Wu Yi any aukward questions about H5N1 sequences, bad vaccines or suspicious outbreaks?

Monotreme – at 23:25

DennisC – at 23:16

From 6 - 8 November, the Executive Board will meet in Geneva to decide on a short-list of candidates, interview them, and then vote to propose a candidate to the World Health Assembly. In a special session on 9 November, the Assembly will consider the Board’s nomination and appoint a Director-General.

From:

WHO Director-General: proposals

Here are the Executive Board Members

More info:

World Health Organization Director-General selection: frequently asked questions

treyfish – at 23:29
  • O^O/ JUST SAY NO (oo) ----‘ _,__/
Medical Maven – at 23:36

When discipline begins to break down on the “good ship” WHO you have to suspect that the report on the China flu today is just the tip of the iceberg.

What other shoes are there to drop? Or will they just let the facts on the ground speak for themselves as they materialize?

Tom DVM – at 23:57

Medical Maven. Someday, you are going to have to explain how you came to write this good. /:0)

As far as the Director General of “the “good ship” WHO goes…

…money talks…Margaret Chan will be the next director and I don’t expect any of us to have future employment opportunities there…

…how long is her term of office anyway?

31 October 2006

Oremus – at 00:01

Flu Goo Gai Pan demic

Walrus – at 00:01

I came to the same conclusion about declaration of phase 4 some weeks ago and was roundly criticised by suggesting the unthinkable - that there are serious political and economic forces at work both internationally and nationally that need to be understood.

At an international level, I have a sense that if China has a bad pandemic, then they want the rest of the world to share it to avoid altering the balance of power in the world, or to perhaps tilt it to Chinas advantage.

My belief is that in a pandemic you are pitting two opposing societies against each other to some extent. There is China, which still has a large peasantry, still a relatively unspecialised economy, and relatively few highly sophisticated cities with good medical services.

America and Europe on the other hand, have almost zero self sufficient “peasants”, a highly specialised economy and sophisticated cities and medical services.

The real issue is resiliance. Which countries are going to rebound fastest after a pandemic with the minimum of economic damage?

In a low CFR (1918) Pandemic, I would say the West could rebound faster provided we have done our preps and put in place sophisticated and transparent pandemic plans.

However in a “civilisation buster” 50% CFR pandemic, our highly specialised infrastructure and economy is not going to take the strain, hence talk of a return to a 1900′s economy as a good outcome. We would receive proportionately much more economic damage then China, which has a less sophisticated infrastructure and a much higher proportion of self reliant peasant population. China can afford to lose all the population of its cities, we can’t.

Sorry for being a cynical pessimist, but these are the calculations that will be being done in Washington, Peking and elsewhere.

I do not expect China, or a Chinese WHO DG, to bolt the stable door until long after the horse has bolted for the reasons stated above.

As for domestic pandemic responses, I fear that politics is going to play a part in who gets what resources, end of story.

P.S. The major supermarket chain here has just woken up to panflu - today I just noticed that all their cashiers are now wearing gloves.

Medical Maven – at 00:28

Walrus, for some time I have thought that those were the very calculations that China has been making.

And in their mind they are making a good bet, strategically-speaking, never mind the possible billions dead.

anon_22 – at 00:37

Walrus,

You credit political leaders in all countries will a) paying attention to H5N1 when they are clearly not, and b) have such a high degree of understanding of H5N1 as to do these calculations.

I’m afraid the truth is probably a lot more mundane, that we are where we are because not enough people are paying attention, and also because even if they do, there isn’t much that human beings can do about it.

You’re not the cynical pessimist, I am. You still believe political leaders have enough of a clue to think they ought to be doing something. I believe the whole thing is on autopilot.

DennisCat 00:54

Medical Maven – Walrus

you may want to look at McKibbin’s report:

http://tinyurl.com/y5qmj7

it only goes to a fatality rate of 2.3% but it predicts the US and EU will do better than China.

DennisCat 00:57

anon_22 – at 00:37

conspiracies are rare, incompedence is common

Green Mom – at 01:26

DennisC- I totally agree about the conspiracy….(that kind of rhymes if you say it out loud.)

I think we should call it China Flu- After all, Spain took the rap for the 1918 flu-and it didn’t start anywhere near there!

Reconscout – at 06:20

I recall the reply given by a history professor years ago to a question about conspiracy theories.”Never assume malice when stupidity is a sufficent explanation.”

crfullmoon – at 07:04

WHO/Hu/Chinese PandemicFlu

I’ve been living like we’re at phase 4 since last Nov. A WHO declaration shouldn’t be what fluwiki folk consider a fact on the ground, for reasons people have been making so eloquently. (Remember Dr.Nabarro said, somewhere; phases 4>5>6 could happen very quickly.)

I want Monotreme to write the history up so survivors know and try not to repeat our history….just about a book’s worth of Monotreme “interpretations” already.

Have told people who think it’s only for birds (and, for people who somehow aren’t like themselves??), the past rumors out of China translated it as “the birds-and-beasts flu” long time ago. They haven’t been shown the lists of mammals, some that usually can’t get influenza have been infected and died.

No current official should be calling it “bird flu”; just say H5N1, as the public needs to learn about H5N1.

Human Pandemic Influenza Year also might be the extra step some of the public didn’t see the memo on, what with all the “3 days to 2 weeks of food”- even our cemetery workers sort of thought the “6–8 week wave through a community” they’d been told about (where they’d have 6 months worth of people to bury) was about the extent of the problem. (They also hadn’t seemed to take it as any likelier than terrorism.)

at 14:04 (thank you, good health, and Good Luck!) The broken link in this chain, the decider

“They’re everywhere! They’re everywhere! They’re everywhere!”

Pixie – at 08:38

Monotreme – at 20:38 “The net effect of WHO and CDC propaganda has been to confuse public health officials and slow down preparedness. I don’t think everyone at the WHO or CDC has bought into this. Middle level scientists may realize that something is rotten, but they feel there is little they can do. They are also probably being kept in the dark regarding some of the data. Countries and US states that rely on the WHO and CDC for information are completely unprepared for a severe pandemic. However, there is another source of information. The US deparment of Homeland Security and some people in Secretary Leavitt’s group are much more concerned about the possibility of a severe pandemic. Their message is much more serious and focused than that coming from the CDC and WHO. States that listen to them have mounted very serious preps.”

I chatted briefly yesterday with a physcian I had not met before about the possibility of pandemic influenza. She has been very busy setting up a new practice, and is not up to date on the subject. She is, however, open to learning about it and she mentioned she that she would visit the CDC website to learn more.

At that point, I mumbled something about the CDC not being exactly the place one would want to go for current and accurate information (to which I swear she raised an eyebrow), and suggested she visit DHS, the pandemic gov. flu site, Fluwikie, to get additional infomation.

It felt rediculous to tell a physcian, who normally counts on the CDC for accurate information, to look elsewhere. Sitting there, I think I probably faded off a bit as my mind was then hijacked into again considering the total inconsistency and dichotomy of opinion and the lack of clear direction on this subject even from our own government and I thought:

“This is sheer insanity…”

Homesteader – at 08:46

Unknown disease claims 36 lives in Banke

Thirty-six people have died due to an unknown disease that has spread in four village development committees of mid western Banke district in the last two weeks.

The number of patients who are suffering from the disease has risen to 500. The toll has risen to 23 in Phattehpur VDC, 10 in Gangapur VDC, two in Narainapur and one in Chauferi village.

According to newspaper reports, most of those dead are children and the aged. Over 36 people are in a critical condition.

According to locals, viral fever, body ache, shivering and sudden unconsciousness are some of the symptoms of the “mysterious ailment”.

The locals said, almost every household in these villages has at least one member suffering from the mysterious disease.

Head of the epidemic control programme in the District Public Health Office (DPHO) Banke, Ram Bahadur Chand, confirmed that 36 people have died due to the epidemic in the last one week across the Rapti.

Even though the DPHO dispatched a team, blood tests could not be done due to the absence of electricity, as a result, the disease could not be identified. Blood samples have been taken from some people and medicines given to them, The Himalayan Times Daily quoted assistant health worker Narayan Sharma as saying.

Locals have accused the government of being indifferent to their plight. nepalnews.com pb Oct 31 06

http://www.nepalnews.com/archive/2006/oct/oct31/news05.php

Homesteader – at 08:48

The previous post is courtesy of Sand on PFP.

Analyst4mkts – at 08:57

Pixie – at 08:38

“It felt rediculous to tell a physcian, who normally counts on the CDC for accurate information, to look elsewhere. Sitting there, I think I probably faded off a bit as my mind was then hijacked into again considering the total inconsistency and dichotomy of opinion and the lack of clear direction on this subject even from our own government and I thought:

“This is sheer insanity…” “

Very well said!!

You are right on the mark here…this is exactly the same feeling I had when discussing with my GP last Friday. It was the first time I broached the subject with him and while I felt somewhat awkward, I believe the Doc was feeling awkward as well. He was aware of the pandemic influenza and knew the CDC reccos but also mentioned that his guard unit was engaging in prep activity. I think it was more of the preparing to prepare level but there was a hint of internal struggle coming from the Doc. I think he is living the dicotomy of the CDC vs DHS.

Medical Maven – at 09:34

Et al-Regarding China in the “flu-soup”

EVEN in the midst of incompetence there can be A DAWNING of possibilities.

(The Chinese are very, very intelligent, and they have millions to burn. And their cohort of engineers, scientists,etc. is very deep and wide).

The West is demographically challenged, and its ranks of pragmatic professionals is much thinner.

DennisCat 10:21

Green Mom – at 01:26 “should call it China Flu- After all, Spain took the rap for the 1918 flu-and it didn’t start anywhere near there! “

both started in “China”. One of the first reports of the H1N1- Spanish flu- was in 1917 in Tibet (according to The Lancet - the British medical journal, July 14, 1917 edition). People keep saying the Ft Dix but there are 1917 medical journal reports and there where even a few Asian medical conferences in 1917 about it.

This flu (H5N1)seems to have originated in Qinghai Lake (bird island) which is in Tibet. If China wants to claim Tibet then let them get the flu named after them.

see also: “Influenza was epidemic in various parts of Europe throughout 1918, and undoubtedly the earlier outbreaks were carried over from 1917. The files of The Lancet indicate that a more or less widespread …

An epidemic of purulent bronchitis was reported from a British Army base in northern France in January, 1917, whilst an epidemic of influenza was in progress. This outbreak began in December, 1916. Later, in the spring of 1917, similar cases of purulent bronchitis were treated at Aldershot, England. These cases are noteworthy because they seem to have been similar in all respects to the fatal types of influenzal pneumonia so commonly seen in all parts of the world during the autumn of 1918. The epidemic referred to was reported by Hammond, Rolland, and Shore in The Lancet, July 14, 1917. They remark that although the earlier cases were admitted during December, 1916, it was not until the end of the following January, when exceptional cold prevailed, that the disease assume edepidemic proportions. ..”

…Abrahams, Hallows, Eyre, and French in The Lancet, September 8, 1917 reported their observations of scores of similar cases in the Aldershot command. ..

From Annual Report of the Secretary of the Navy, 1919 — Miscellaneous Reports. http://tinyurl.com/yx2454

I know that a lot of people like to look at Berry’s book and say it started at Ft Dix, but I prefer to look at the historical records and the medical reports published before 1918.

The point is the China flu is an OK term to me.

Bluebonnet – at 10:24

Here is an article that might interest (or scare) some of you. 9 repeatedly talks about Bird Flu and TB combining.

http://medamericaresearch.org

Bird flu, influenza and 1918: The case for mutant Avian tuberculosis Lawrence Broxmeyer, MD Summary: Influenza is Italian for ‘‘influence’’, Latin: influentia. It used to be thought that the disease was caused bya bad influence from the heavens. Influenza was called a virus long, long before it was proven to be one. In 2005, an article in the New England Journal of Medicine estimated that a recurrence of the 1918 influenza epidemic could kill between 180 million and 360 million people worldwide.

A large part of the current bird-flu hysteria is fostered by a distrust among the lay and scientific community regarding the actual state of our knowledge regarding the bird flu or H5N1 and the killer ‘‘Influenza’’ Pandemic of 1918 that it is compared to. And this distrust is not completely unfounded. Traditionally, ‘‘flu’’ does not kill. Experts, including Peter Palese of the Mount School of Medicine in Manhattan, remind us that even in 1992, millions in China already had antibodies to H5N1, meaning that they had contracted it and that their immune system had little trouble fending it off. Dr. Andrew Noymer and Michel Garenne, UC Berkely demographers, reported in 2000 convincing statistics showing that undetected tuberculosis may have been the real killer in the 1918 flu epidemic. Aware of recent attempts to isolate the ‘‘Influenza virus’’ on human cadavers and their specimens, Noymer and Garenne summed that: ‘‘Frustratingly, these findings have not answered the question why the 1918 virus was so virulent, nor do they offer an explanation for the unusual age profile of deaths’’. Bird flu would certainly be diagnosed in the hospital today as Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS). Roger and others favor suspecting tuberculosis in all cases of acute respiratory failure of unknown origin.

By 1918, it could be said, in so far as tuberculosis was concerned, that the world was a supersaturated sponge ready to ignite and that among its most vulnerable parts was the very Midwest where the 1918 unknown pandemic began. It is theorized that the lethal pig epidemic that began in Kansas just prior to the first human outbreaks was a disease of avian and human tuberculosis genetically combined through mycobacteriophage interchange, with the pig, susceptible to both, as its involuntary living culture medium. What are the implications of mistaking a virus such as Influenza A for what mycobacterial disease is actually causing? They would be disastrous, with useless treatment and preventative stockpiles. The obvious need for further investigation is presently imminent and pressing.

cottontop – at 10:39

Bluebonnet- “influenza” is an italian word that, one hypothesis has it, was coined by the disease’s Italian victims in the middle of the eighteenth century. Influenza di freddo, means “influence of the cold.”“- Gina Kolato

A good read. I’m interested in this TB as well, and am keeping an eye on it, as well as newcastles disease. One never knows.

anonymous – at 11:47

The TB connection makes no sense. TB is a bacillius, a huge hulking creature compared with a virus. It’s easy to stain, easy to see in a microscope. Does it make any sense that all the people searching so desperately for the cause of the pandemic could have possibly missed TB? Unbelievable. The two diseases are as different as pears and tuna fish. Big words don’t cover up a shaky story. Ther’s no question that TB and influenza co-existed. But a undetected cross? What about the sequence database? Where is the evidence, other than this guy saying so? And this guy doens’t know the difference between a theory and a hypothesis, either.

Dennis in Colorado – at 12:18

anonymous – at 11:47

I’ll admit I have a bias against the information from an individual’s web site that starts with “Lawrence Broxmeyer MD is already heralded as today’s single most brilliant and innovative medical investigator by colleagues in the United States and abroad…”

I find far more revealing information about Lawrence Broxmeyer, MD HERE. But, then, maybe it is not the same Lawrence Broxmeyer, MD…

cactus – at 12:59
 What ? Did I miss this?

  “in 1992, millions in China already had antibodies to H5N1, meaning that they had contracted it and that their immune system had little trouble fending it off.” 

  Weird.
anonymous – at 13:33

cactus – at 12:59 What ? Did I miss this?

No, the study that claimed that did not acutally go out and analyze blood samples. It was a survey to ask if, in the past year, you had had a bad case of flu. Totally worthless. There is no such study as he claims.

TRay75at 13:36

The swans are still feet up. The power grid and the Internet is still on line. “There’s still time, Brother.”

However, in homage to H.G. and Orson Well on the anniversary of the infamous radio broadcast; “No one would have believed in the first years of the 21st Century that human affairs were being watched … Few citizens even considered that we were being studied as a man might study the organisms that swirl and multiply in a drop of water.”

Interesting that over 100 years ago the power of a virus was thought the ultimate weapon to save mankind, and now we are fearful in it’s presence.

Dennis in Colorado – at 13:56

TRay75 – at 13:36 The swans are still feet up.

The ones at which I am looking are still feet down / heads up.

TRay75at 14:54

Dennis in Colorado – at 13:56 - Darned dyslexic monitor interpretation. It’s been a long month.

You’re correct, it should have been “The swans are still heads up, feet down. etc “ .

Now, to loose the rest of my mind, it’s time to take my 2 kids trick-or-treating until sunset. And they will be probably called my grand kids by at least 2 or 3 complete strangers, but what else is new?

But point being, we’re all still here speculating and waiting and prepping, and the monsters are still only in the movies for a few more days at least.

I’m trying to re-frame my thoughts into a positive, no matter how bad things seem. One of the first rules for survival.

Monotreme – at 22:40

Pixie – at 08:38

It felt rediculous to tell a physcian, who normally counts on the CDC for accurate information, to look elsewhere. Sitting there, I think I probably faded off a bit as my mind was then hijacked into again considering the total inconsistency and dichotomy of opinion and the lack of clear direction on this subject even from our own government and I thought:

“This is sheer insanity…”

You’re not the only one who realizes that the CDC recommendations are insane. Minnesota, which has an excellent pandemic flu plan, also realizes that listening to the CDC is dangerous to their citizens health.

Check this out:

Pandemic vaccine rationing proposal favors the young

In a worst-case influenza pandemic, without enough vaccine for everyone, who should stand closer to the front of the line: a 25-year-old water utility worker or a healthy 75-year-old?

[snip]

The vaccine allocation recommendations released last week by the Minnesota Center for Health Care Ethics (MCHCE) look much different from the ones proposed by the federal government. The vaccine rationing recommendation in federal pandemic plan is aimed at saving the most lives, and might favor the healthy 75-year-old over the 25-year-old utility worker.

The Minnesota group’s approach is designed to prevent not only deaths due to influenza, but also deaths related to public infrastructure breakdowns. It is weighted toward those whose immune systems are more likely to respond strongly to a pandemic flu vaccine. As such, it would put the 25-year-old utility worker ahead of the 75-year-old.

[snip]

The group said the deadly infrastructure collapse that occurred during the Hurricane Katrina disaster influenced them to seek ways to mitigate other effects of the pandemic, not just the flu deaths. “Seeking only to vaccinate those at high risk of influenza-related mortality leaves them and every other Minnesotan unprotected from death due to breakdowns in basic healthcare, public health, and public safety infrastructures,” the report says.

The report emphasizes that approaches to vaccine allocation differ because of different assumptions about pandemic severity. The federal recommendation is based on a moderate pandemic, while the Minnesota group’s plan is based on a severe pandemic, like that of 1918–19, along with an inadequate supply of vaccine.


This is the difference between States that have a chance of survival and those that are doomed. If your state follows CDC guidelines, your odds of surviving a severe pandemic are much lower than if you live in a state that disregards the CDC guidelines and has intelligent public health officials, like Minnesota.

This is more of a prophecy than a rumor.

On the fence and leaning – at 22:59

Maybe a rumor, maybe not the right place but here it goes. Oh boy, should I? (clears throat) I just noticed that the news thread got WAY off news somewhere and became, yet again, a ‘pick on how Niman looks at BF’ thing. I don’t want to get into a right/wrong thing there although I do have my own opinions on how he is treated here. One of the news posters mentioned that he was banned. Scaredy cat said: Too bad Niman canft defend himself here against anon_22Œs attempts to discredit him. Is that true? Rumor? I thought that he had just decided to avoid this place after the last dust up.

Scaredy Cat – at 23:14

On the fence and leaning,

The moderators permanently banned Niman a few months ago.

On the fence and leaning – at 23:22

wow. I knew he got banned the week, didn’t know it went further than that. I am sure there are still some strong feelings pro and con.

Green Mom – at 23:33

Well, Ive missed that. I don’t want to stir anything up, but why was he banned?

bgw in MT – at 23:34

It is my understanding that he was not banned, but was suspended for a week. He has posted a few times since then.

01 November 2006

gharris – at 00:06

I agree with bgw - I think that was just a one week suspension - however - I dont blame him for not posting here - he was VERY rudely treated!! He has a theory - who knows if right or wrong - but we bill ourselves as welcoming all theories - so why beat him up when he posts. Not fair in my opinion! Who are we to judge him and why should he have to prove anything to us??!! I think his absence is a great loss to the wiki!

Scaredy Cat – at 00:13

Initially Niman was suspended for two weeks. A few weeks later the mods permanently banned him without a clear warning. i think it was on an Israel thread. Not sure though.

disgruntled – at 00:43
  Anon_22 basically engineered his suspension, both actively and by failing to rein in other harassers.  She constantly harps on her version of what is science and what isn’t, although she isn’t a scientist herself.  The current groupthink on this board is that understanding the data and the science are not necessary, anyway; all we need is to have scouts watching for smoke on the horizon.  As a result, there isn’t much discussion of the science anymore.  The curious thing is that the failure of the CDC to release sequences or to publish would appear to be consistent with Anon_22′s strange idea of how science operates.  
Leo7 – at 01:33

Niman was a maverick and he slavishly stayed on his pet topic. He didn’t veer off on other topics, when asked, he came straight back to his theory. The people who are complaining about his absence, all of you are thoughtful and share info on a variety of topics, as does Anon 22. But Niman doesn’t. Sometimes he hit highs that were patronizing and even snobbish when he was answering some questions. He had a way of sparking up things, but I don’t miss him and I’m sorry the rest of you do. If Niman missed corresponding why hasn’t he opened his own blog on his established web site? My opinion is MD’s, PhD’s and scientists wouldn’t go to his blog and he knows it. Niman had no patience for answering the same questions over and over as new people came on board. He just ignored them. Anon 22 answers.

 Anon 22 has begun some of the most interesting threads here as has Monotreme.  Anon 22 is a medical doctor, and the peer group she’s interacting with and bringing information to us from like JKT, would not grant such interviews to anyone not an MD or on a similiar level.  She shares what she learns, she doesn’t stand on soap boxes, she’s not trying to make a buck, and she does give fluwicki national access and recognition.  Otherwise fluwicki might get dismissed as y2k leftovers.  I’m not cheerleading, but I would really miss her if she took a vacation from here.   
anon_22 – at 05:36

I actually do need a vacation…. :-)


cactus – at 12:59

What ? Did I miss this?

“in 1992, millions in China already had antibodies to H5N1, meaning that they had contracted it and that their immune system had little trouble fending it off.”

No, you didn’t miss it. It didn’t happen.


On the subject of ‘Chinese flu’, I don’t believe it is helpful to start using ethnic labels for a possible pandemic which, whatever you think, is a 99.9% naturally-occurring event, which will kill millions and millions.

For those who don’t know, I’m ethnic Chinese. But I would feel the same if you start using ‘Algerian flu’ or ‘Timbuktu flu’.

Come a pandemic, there will be enough destruction without adding blame, which will not backfire on whoever you believe was negligent right now, but on the totally innocent person of a particular ethnic origin going about their own lives, who will have exactly the same chance of having someone dear dying from the virus as the rest of us.

anon_22 – at 05:47

cottontop – at 19:13

Gina Kolata’s book is good. Even better than John Barry IMO, but shhhh.. don’t tell.

:-)

cottontop – at 05:54

anon_22- have you read it?

anon_22 – at 05:57

yes, of course. I wouldn’t comment if I hadn’t.

cottontop – at 06:05

geeze I thought about that after I posted. Too early for me and not enough coffe!

I’ve read some so far, and it realy is disturbing. If this goes pandemic, and is worse, from what I read and hear, we really are screwed!

jplanner – at 06:06

anon @5:36- thanks for pointing out “Chinese flu” as ethnic labeling. In reading the thread, I’d felt a bit uncomfortable about it didn’t have the guts to say anything seeing I don’t post that often. You are right.

I think in using the name Chinese flu, people might feel some relish because of what we have learned here about the behavior of the Chinese govenment etc around this pandemic. Secrecy, inneffective vaccinations possibly making worse problems etc. I did initially before I felt the above.

I pictured you as a blond! ;) maybe you still are… just kidding.

anon_22 – at 06:13

I love it when I screw up people’s images of me. Still remember the first time that Monotreme realized I was not a guy, and that was after months of writing to each other.

LOL

anon_22 – at 06:17

Actually, I have blonde days…..

Reconscout – at 06:18

Perhaps we should revisit the original reason for renameing this thing and come up with something non-ethnic.People hear “bird”and think that it either doesn`t affect people or that you would only be able to catch it from birds.They hear “flu” and associate it with ordinary flu.

anon_22 – at 06:22

The best phrase IMO is still pandemic influenza or influenza pandemic.

cottontop – at 06:32

annon_22- @ 06:17 I’m having one of those this morning! You sound full of energy, and ready to go. What’s your secret?

anon_22 – at 06:32

ottontop – at 06:32

annon_22- @ 06:17 I’m having one of those this morning! You sound full of energy, and ready to go. What’s your secret?

Jetlag?

jplanner – at 06:35

When I talk to my friends etc about prepping, I always say “influnza pandemic, flu pandemic, or pandemic flu”. Often I use the word “potential” or “upcoming” before the word pandemic. I guess I don’t use “avian” or “bird flu” especially because people get confused, as we all know, between what is happening in birds vs the ptential pandemic, which theoretically might not be via H5n1. I figure that there is so much misinformation in the MSM, I don’t need to add to the confusion for my friends. I suppose the term we choose to use hear is good practice for how we talk about it everywhere.

I remembered when I figured out you were a woman, anon_22. There was a whole thread where someone refered to you as “he” and then another wrote a comment with She in capitals.

Thanks so much for all you have been doing here on fluwikie and in the world.

cottontop – at 06:39

I figured out annon_22 was a woman right off when I first started posting. Has too much attitude to be a man! (I mean that in a good way annon_22.)

DARWIN – at 06:43

When people say it’s just BIRD FLU remind them that the A in Influenza A means it was derived from a virus that infected birds. ( A is for Avian.)

FrenchieGirlat 07:16

I should like to respond to Anon_22 and others on the subject of “ethnic labelling” since I also proposed on another thread recently the names of “Fujian Plague” or “China Plague”, and some other such like names on another thread some months ago.

Certainly, when you say “ethnic labelling” in this way, that’s exactly how it sounds, and I am sorry if I offended any here. However, my (and others) proposals were not to connote some pejorative way of designating people originating from a particular region. It was simply (1) to distinguish, geographically, where it seems to us and most scientists, that this particular BF comes from; (2) to assign an illness name that would import the dramatic lethality the bird flu carries with it and which the word “plague” conveys better than the word “flu”.

I should also be reminded that we have had many bad ethnic flus, Spanish flu, which did not originate in Spain; Hong Kong flu, Russian flu, Asian flu, etc.

And, finally, I would note too, that the media at some point will pick a horrific name for this illness, when the media realizes exactly what is facing the world and that “bird flu” is a woefully inadequate name for an illness that kills in days with acute respiratory syndrome, secondary bacterial pneumonias, and from what I understand, some diarrheic and hemorragic features. Also, the media will realize that the words “avian influenza” is (a) long and difficult to write, (b) pertains to birds, © conveys the idea of mild illness. “Bird flu” conveys (b) and © above, but it’s easier to read and write, hence why I think at this moment it is more searched on Google than the other. As for the names “influenza pandemic, flu pandemic, or pandemic flu”, they all carry with them the difficulties highlighted in (a), (b) and ©, in addition to which most people with even some good education just cannot quite fathom what is a pandemic.

I’m open to better ideas than mine; we’ve had such discussions about a new name for this illness some months ago. None that we chose then ever stuck in the press. Now why should we want a “dire” name for it? So that people start being aware and prep accordingly. Also, because if we are the first to find a likely name, at least conveying the lethality of the illness, which would not be a reminder of the Black Plague, and which ideally would be easily translatable in other languages, we’d establish it and it would be less likely it would be displaced by some even worse sensational name concocted by the press.

I shall post this reply on the other thread where I had originally propoesd to compete with another for a BF name, but leave it to others if they should wish to debate further and open a new thread.

Ruth – at 07:21

Back to rumors, this is actually not a rumor, but I have no documentation. Last night while watching TV, I saw a commercial for GSK. I heard it right before I fell asleep, so I guess it could have been a dream, lol. They were talking about avian flu, or whatever you guys want to call it today. Anyway, it discussed it a little bit and how they were working hard on a vaccine. Anyone else see it?? It was on about11:00–11:30PM.

lohrewok – at 07:28

I like pan-flu.

anon_22 – at 07:29

FrenchieGirl – at 07:16

I should also be reminded that we have had many bad ethnic flus, Spanish flu, which did not originate in Spain; Hong Kong flu, Russian flu, Asian flu, etc.

First, none of these were ethnic in a sense that it arose because of these people, but it just happened to be wherever it was thought to have started. But uninformed members of the public won’t be able to tell the difference.

Second, just cos something was done before does not make it right or useful or appropriate. It wasn’t that long ago when African Americans had to sit at the back of the bus. Societies evolve, for the better, I hope.

Third, when people are dying, none of these arguments will be remembered. Just the name, and the excuse to vent their grief and anger on someone.

Finally, science has also moved on and we no longer use place of origin as name for disease.

Avoiding unintended consequences is part of pandemic mitigation.

FrenchieGirlat 07:34

anon_22 – at 07:29 - I humbly bow to your arguments. Pray the media do not make the name worse than my (others’) suggestions.

Peace, and let’s return to rumours now

The lazy Sherlock Holmes imposter – at 07:44

jplanner – at 06:06 I pictured you as a blond! ;) anon_22 – at 06:13 I love it when I screw up people’s images of me. Still remember the first time that Monotreme realized I was not a guy, and that was after months of writing to each other.

Well, I thought I’d go on a hunt & figure out who anan_22 is, after being directed to the profile section so I pulled up the National Academies & tried to hunt down a speaker whom I thought might be seen here that we would address as Dr. if we were in their presence and I got nowhere. Now I should go back and hunt up a Ms. Dr. with blonde hair who’s had some remote connection with China!!! Boy what a lead!! :-) I’m on a roll…..maybe by the end of the year I’ll have this case solved!

Yes, I know I could email her and ask her name, and I probably will eventually, meantime it adds to the alure of the elite poster to speculate and I’m learning a lot of other people’s names who have been seriously researching this illness for years — a big ‘thank you’ to you all, whereever you are, whoever you are!

Rose

anon – at 08:00

Anon_22 thank you for all the work you do. I really respect what you have to say.

anon_22 – at 08:01

Rose,

Here’s the National Academies link. Actually, thanks for asking, I didn’t know they had already put up the presentations!

And to clarify this issue of ‘remote connection with China’, I’m originally from Hong Kong. In fact, I still have a home there and am there right now. Technically, since 1997, Hong Kong is a ‘Special Administrative Region’ (SAR) of China, but is run under a different political model of limited democracy, high accountability, low corruption, and open capitalist society.

(BTW the similarity in name to SARS was one major cause of political paralysis when SARS was unfolding, but that’s a different story.)

However, having grown up in a British system, and having family all over the world (all continents except Africa), I don’t particularly think my ethnic origin has any major influence on my thinking. But the multi-cultural side definitely does, and I tend to act as devil’s advocate whenever issues come up. I find myself spending just as much time explaining Americans to Chinese or British people as the Brits to Americans or Chinese to Americans, or any other permutations. <g>

anon_22 – at 08:03

FrenchieGirl,

Thanks, and peace to you too. :-)

crfullmoon – at 08:03

anon_22, point taken. I usually, when talking to people, say H5N1 pandemic or pandemic influenza (or, maybe that rumors out of China quite a while ago translated as the “birds-and-beasts flu”) (or “like Spanish flu but worse”), though the feeling of wanting the Chinese officials (or the WHO and their still-Nov 2005 phase alert?) who cover things up held accountable is still there…

crfullmoon – at 08:05

or I say the public’s “bird flu” will be like Spanish flu but worse, not that Chinese rumors translate as that Still on first cup of coffee and not much sleep. oops

crfullmoon – at 08:08

SAR:(BTW the similarity in name to SARS was one major cause of political paralysis when SARS was unfolding, but that’s a different story.)

wow! my “something new” I learned for the day and I haven’t even had my caffeine yet! thanks, anon 22…

cottontop – at 08:19

annon_22-

This is totaly off topic, but I was wondering if you have ever visited Angkor Wat?

Northstar – at 08:20

Regarding a better name for Bird Flu/Pan Flu/ Pandemic Influenza: I don’t think we can beat Steven King’s short, catchy “Superflu.” But I don’t think it’ll get that handle until it starts killing people in the streets.

Currently I still use “bird flu” when talking to people about it. It’s almost cute; I use a lot of humor when broaching such a serious subject, a la Jon Stewart. That’s the approach most effective for me.

Green Mom – at 08:29

My two cents this am-I was thinking about “China Flu” in terms of Point of Origin not realizing that scientists don’t do that any more-shows you what I know. I really enjoyed the word play-I was especially fond of Oremus’s “flu Goo Gai Pan-demic-which I thought was clever and will make me laugh now whenever I go to a Chinese Buffet. I didn’t pick up any racial overtones here, but I can see where it would quickly lead to that-I’m afraid our Society has not quite evolved that far. So we should probably ditch the Point Of Origin angle- unless we want to call it P.o.O. Flu.

However, I also agree with Frenchie Girl in that it would be good to come up with a name before the Media comes up with a worse one. And her points 1,2,and 3 are very good. Someone suggested simply H5N1 flu-its easy to write but a little tricky to say quick-we want those short sound bites!!!!!

“The black death” is great-you got the darkness, the horror, the death, says it all. Unfortuantly, its allready taken. I myself love “The Great Mortaility” but it implies something that has happened, its really too long, and once again, taken.

We need something short, non-ethnic, non-species,Something to distingish this flu from seasonal”ordinary” flu, something to convey this is a different mutating flu that we havn’t dealt with before….Mutant Flu? X-flu?

How about “New Flu”…..

prepmaniac – at 08:36
            “Killer Flu”

That is what sets it apart from “Flu”

prepmaniac – at 08:45

Can anyone think of a word that implies deadly or breathlessness or some other horrible but real aspect of the disease?

The word virus istead of “flu”

  “China Virus”      Word that means turn blue  virus   or   can’t breathe virus.
anon_22 – at 08:46

Well, since this is a rumors thread, it would be quite hard to go off-topic :-)

The SARS story went like this. When the disease was breaking out in Hong Kong hospitals, there was pressure on the government to, among other things, make the disease legally notifiable. This is usually done to facilitate disease tracking, but the promptness of notification is a bit of a moot point in this instance IMO at a time when the cause of the disease was unknown and no confirmatory tests were available. In any case, there was agreement with hospital doctors and the general medical community to notify when in doubt.

Anyway, it was one of the things that Margaret Chan, as head of the public health services, was supposed to do. She was later reprimanded for the 10 day delay in making the disease notifiable.

The following excerpt from the report gives the timing of events.

15.11 On 15 March 2003, the World Health Organization (WHO) named the disease Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome and issued the emergency travel advisory. D of H, Dr Margaret CHAN FUNG Fu-chun, however, did not see the need to add SARS to the First Schedule to the Quarantine and Prevention of Disease Ordinance (Cap. 141) until 26 March 2003. While the

Select Committee considers that Dr CHAN should be held responsible for not seeing the need to amend the law on or immediately after 15 March 2003, Dr YEOH, being the policy secretary responsible for health matters and the immediate supervisor of Dr CHAN, should also be held responsible.

What was happening on the political side was this. The government (the politicians, not the civil service) was increasingly unpopular and was perceived as incompetent, the economy was bad, and there was great need to boost the image of both the government and of Hong Kong, officially known as HKSAR, China. Imagine the consternation when the WHO decided to name the disease SARS!! There was an immediate flurry of activities to try to influence (aka change) that decision.

Now, you cannot legally make a disease notifiable until the disease has a name and a definition. While efforts to change the name was going on, and then, after that failed, efforts to try to come up with an alternative name locally, SRS instead of SARS, and to get everyone to agree, got hectic, messy, and, to a spectator, slightly comical. The last email on this SRS/SARS discussion was dated 27th March 2003.

All of this came out in the official enquiries. If you follow the link and look at the detailed documentation, should tell you a lot about the opennness of governance in Hong Kong.

anon_22 – at 08:47

cottontop – at 08:19

This is totaly off topic, but I was wondering if you have ever visited Angkor Wat?

No, would love to. Why?

anon_22 – at 09:02

Sorry, important correction to my 08:46 post

promptness of notification should read promptness of official notification

cottontop – at 09:02

I would love too as well. I’ve been a student of ancient history/archaeology for 15 years. I dearly want to visit the places I’ve studied about. I was just curious if you’ve been.

Homesteader – at 09:10

VARDS= Viral Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome

VARDS Epidemic has a nice ring

VARDS Plague has more sex appeal.

Trying to come up with VADER as in Darth, but haven’t had enough coffee yet.

Pixie – at 09:13

For me it will always be “The Hot High Breathless Birds & Beasts Flu.”

Green Mom – at 09:17

Prep manic- “China Virus” Word that means turn blue virus or can’t breathe virus.

How about “blue Flu”

Ok I’m hung up on this rhyming flu thing. Its a dreary day out-but HEY! Ive got the day off ( as much as a Mom ever gets the day off….) so I’m gonna make some more coffee and curl up with a dictionary/thesauraus, see if I can figure something out…..

Tom DVM – at 09:19

annon 22. Thanks for the explanation.

Dr. Cheng has chosen to be a public figure and therefore, like all politicians, has a history (public health is in large part politics).

History is open to continual re-interpretation. She may have been treated fairly by history or not, it is not for us to decide…but now she will in a few weeks, thanks to China’s money and influence, be starting her tenure as Director General of the World Health Organization. She will be on top of the ‘mole hill’.

She can dispel history by acting in the best interest of those who pay her wages…which is us!!…or she can be a lap-dog of China (who has the money and the influence).

She should well know that she has summited the mountain at what will be an apex of history and regulatory medical science. She is going to be the center of attention as she is the pivotal figure in all that we discuss.

This time there will be no gray areas at the end of the day.

cottontop – at 09:20

Fuijian Flu

anon_22 – at 09:23

Tom, you mean Dr Chan. Asian last names can be challenging I know, but those two names are as different as Smith and Ford. :-)

Tom DVM – at 09:27

oops!!

anon_22 – at 09:27

Also, my post was intended to satisfy the curiosity of those like crfullmoon who didn’t know about SARS and HKSAR, not to go into the WHO debate. Let’s save that for its own thread, so those who want to debate that will have that info. Thanks!

Pixie – at 09:29

anon_22:

That was a most interesting story on the history of the SARS episode. I had not heard a few of those things before. Very interesting insights into Chan.

TomDVM:

If Chan is appointed, we will see pan-flu “managed” with the Chinese stle of management right up until it’s obvious that no one anywhere can “manage” it for a second more.

As bad as the managing part of that is, what’s worse is that once the virus does its thing and becomes unstopable, the “management” plan has no follow-up plan. That’s the problem with command-style beaurocracies. They can work ok, or at least look like they’re working ok, as long as the chinks in the management plan don’t get too big. When they do, the entire load of fish blows apart and there is absolutely never any “plan B.”

Okidokie – at 09:30

stay on topic folks

Pixie – at 09:36

Sorry - I didn’t see anon_22′s request to move WHO debate over to a WHO thread.

But, at this point, Chan’s potential appointment being nearly certain is a rumor, and a pretty major and important one.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 09:56

anon_22 – at 08:01

Well, when I go on these ‘hunts’ I have the grandest time! I spent time reading your presentation and others as well, even found your picture on the Who’s Who page on another site! Isn’t the wiki amazing that people with your credentials are here with the average Jane like me and we both keep it going….it just never ceases to amaze me. I’ll bet your email inbox looks a lot different than mine does too! :-) I don’t have family in other countries either — I’ll be that’s fun in a lot of ways — I rely on my ‘foreign family’ here and other places on the net to keep me connected.

Thanks for the link….I’d gotten distracted in my search and hadn’t gotten back to it so now I’m feeling like I acomplished something already this AM — now it’s off to can lima beans, northern beans, and chicken breasts, and dehydrate broccoli & hamburger.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 10:13

Green Mom – at 09:17 You poor little thing….you’ve had several really grey days lately, messy weather! It was raining here when you mentioned bad weather the other day, but the sun’s back out now thank goodness. I tend to react more to falling dying leaves and rainy days more than I’d like to acknowledge.

Thanks for the recap on SARS — helpful to me too. I learn so much here — NOW I’m off!

NawtyBitsat 10:20

Any good rumors today?

TreasureIslandGalat 11:16

I think the pandemic flu, when it comes, will attain many different regional names. Like the 1918 “Spanish Flu” was also more casually known as “The Grip” in much of America. I’m sure it had other catchy local names as well. I’m sure more interesting nicknames will accompany this flu as well. It may be come to be known as something much different as it evolves… maybe like “Miss Piggy’s Revenge” that becomes “MPR”, or something showing that children are more affected but not wanting to scare them so much in speaking in reference to the illness like saying “NapTime”.

I would prefer a more obvious name that could go down with the ages to describe this disease and all future pandemics that identifies the type of disease as well as the time period… The PanFlu of 200?, the PanTB of 200?, the PanEbola of ?

-not very sparkly, but gets the point across.

beehiver – at 11:20

Anonymous posted yesterday at 11:47

TB is a bacillius, a huge hulking creature compared with a virus. It’s easy to stain, easy to see in a microscope. Does it make any sense that all the people searching so desperately for the cause of the pandemic could have possibly missed TB?…Ther’s no question that TB and influenza co-existed. But a undetected cross?

While IMHO I also doubt if there was an actual cross between the TB and influenza, additional info on TB offers food for thought. Broxmeyer’s paper on his theory cites some historical references on what’s called the “TB virus”. This prompted me to check a modern reference, Lida Mattman’s amazing text titled “Cell Wall Deficient Forms, Stealth Pathogens” (3rd ed. publ. by CRC Press, 2001). There is an entire chapter devoted to “Mycobacterium tuberculosis and the Atypicals”. Here are a few quotes that may help us understand that these bacteria often undergo radical structure changes, one of the most common consisting of loss of the relatively stiff cell wall structure, loss of which does not kill it. These changes in bacteria have been documented through the past century by hundreds of studies, and are yet commonly ignored by modern medicine. Here is more…I will leave out the technical stuff about staining, media differences, etc.

P. 189. “It is apparent that in any tissue the tubercle bacillus grows minimally as an acid-fast rod, the predominant growth consists of pleomorphic structures…Voluminous literature substantiates that mycobacteria grow more rapidly and with the least fastidiousness as pleomorphic forms, unrecognizable as mycobacteria. Csillag concluded that mycobacteria are typically biphasic, resembling true fungi…Xalabarder noted that classical mycobacterial filaments could abandon binary fission and simultaneously divide into 10 to 15 bacilli or develop a variety of older forms…remarkable syncytial growth…sprouting granules…long branching filaments grew from the granules…”

P. 190. “Mycobacterial species differ in their degree of acid-fastness in growth stages. Their acid-fastness and morphology also varies with the culture medium.”

P. 191. “In mycobacterioses the wall deficient variant can usually be seen in 48-h blood cultures…The pleomorphic acid-fast microcolonies develop in any standard blood culture medium…Blood is an excellent source of the organism since approximately half the patients with active disease produce no sputum…The blood usually yields a positive culture whether the infection is in lung, meninges, or other organ…the blood continues to carry the organisms during 3 to 5 days after initiation of specific therapy.”

P. 193–4. “Sometimes it appears that CWD [cell wall deficient] stages, per se, produce tuberculosis….Stable CWD forms were found in all lesions, including those in the brain. It was noted that filterable units of the organism could easily penetrate the blood-brain barrier…One study had disclosed that tuberculosis patients who discharge L-forms of the pathogen are especially contagious, that their contacts should be warned, and their health monitored.”

[A note here, that the term “virus” was historically sometimes applied to very tiny pathogens that travelled through special filters thought to hold back the larger bacterial sizes of pathogens].

P. 194. “The filtrable form of M. tuberculosis, one of the stages of cell wall deficiency, has been demonstrated in almost every type of secretion and exudate. Thus, this “ultravirus”, has been found in pleural fluid, in ascitic fluid, in spinal fluid in meningitis, in the peripheral blood of women during menstruation, in urine, and in mothers’ milk” [refs not included]…This virus stage of the tubercle bacillus was recovered from the blood of individuals suffering from cutaneous tuberculosis and from their dermal lesions…Residual infection after treatment is an important problem…The variants retained the original pathogenicity of the bacilli and could also cause non-specific inflammation…Staining and growing the CWD stages of mycobacteria can remain a simple method for diagnosis and confirmation. In addition, the quantity of microbial substance to analyze by molecular methods can be rapidly increased in the CWD stage vs. the bacillary.”

Page 197. “Many agents such as lysozyme, macrophages and bacteriophage, known to produce CWD stages in bacteria naturally occur in the vertebrate body. Correspondingly, it is interesting that tuberculous lungs contain elevated levels of lysozyme.”


Brief comments

The statements that CWD forms of TB are found in the blood (and other body fluids) raises serious questions about other methods of transmission, including mosquitoes. Hopefully the public health sector will become more aware.

Other pleomorphic bacteria covered in this text include salmonella, shigella, pseudomonas,borrelia, treponema, listeria, staph, strep, Haemophilus influenzae, fungi, and others. Clinical and laboratory considerations are included. One interesting chapter includes information about induction of CWD forms by antibiotics and organic compounds. There are entire chapters devoted to “Filterable Forms” and to “Phage” (a type of virus). The text is very heavily referenced.

crfullmoon – at 11:28

(Pixie, “the entire load of fish blows apart “ -like the time someplace thought the best way to dsipose of a dead whale was dynamite?)

beehiver, “The statements that CWD forms of TB are found in the blood “ somehow makes me want to go give everyone in New England a TB test…

under the radar – at 12:05

beehiver – at 11:20 Thank you for that, it is very enlightening and, frankly, a little frightening in its implications.

disgruntled - I know you often lurk and seldom post. Peace to you and thanks. :)

Regarding the name for the disease, I have one, but it may be a little too long to easily roll off the tongue. How about:

amalgomated H5N1-XDRTB-HIV-ebola-dengue-chikungunya-mystery disease

Hello Nawty!

DennisCat 12:13

I still like : the WHO flu.

DennisCat 12:14

and of course WHO means Where, How many, Oh no.

Oremus – at 13:27

Scientists test BB RWFK on mice.

Red wine molecule helps mice live longer

It was only a matter of time.

Snowhound1 – at 13:36

Oremus!! Thanks for my first laugh of the day!! Cheers

On the fence and leaning – at 17:34

Found this on another thread by Reader, Will Americans Really Stay Home? What do you all think? It’s conspiracy all right but not entirely unbelievable…

I have a friend who is into conspiracy theory. No, he doesn’t believe them but he loves to read them. I asked him to come up with a conspiracy theory about the pandemic (he says there are several already) but part of our conversation was that I asked him if we will be able to stay home when it starts. He said no, but not for the reasons here. First off, he said the government will never admit that the CFR is greater than 1 to 2%. Any attempt by any person or media to say otherwise will be dealt with by severe means and then suppressed. They will lead you to believe that masks and gloves will protect you, that only dirty habits will kill you (especially fat bodies, smoking and drugs), and they will remind you over and over that we have Tamiflu and vaccines coming to protect you. Therefore, they will advocate normalacy for all - school, banks, work, etc. We will have our pandemic and be perfectly okay at the same time. He said the government will bank on the first wave to be mild, but no matter how bad it is, the number of dead will be minimized - if you are in a town with 3000 dead, they will report 30, maybe 300 to the rest of the nation. If you cry foul, you will be labeled a heretic (as will the Flu Wiki). Anyway, this is how the conspiracy starts and he combines several other theories for the rest of the story.

mcjohnston92 – at 17:47

On the fence—

I hope the government here in the states doesn’t actually have the manpower and foresight to necessary to implement such a plan. We have an (nominally at least)independent media in this country. And, remember that the people charged with enforcing any such standards of information control will be subject to the same CAR and CFR as the rest of us. I just don’t think you could get the number of people to “play ball” that you would need to pull this off.

I’m not saying TPTB won’t constantly repeat the story that everything is fine, everything is under control, because they will. But I don’t believe such nonsense will have much traction with the newspaper editors and HAM radio operators and legions of independent media folks in this country.

My view—the story will come out, despite TPTB’s best efforts to the contrary. The only question is how many people will die believing TPTB’s lies before the truth steamrolls them with the weight of bodies?

On the fence and leaning – at 17:50

Look for the internet to have mysterious ‘outages’.

banshee – at 17:57

On the fence and leaning – at 17:34, Unfortunately, all those bodies piling up and the increasing “missing” - the postman, your neighbor, your kid’s classmate, the majority of the HCWs in your city - might tip us off that something is happening? Nothing like a good conspiracy though… :)

Green Mom – at 18:15

This theory is not as whacked out as it might seems-a huge reason Berry’s book chilled me so very much was the suppression of flu news during the 1918 pandemic-then it was for morale reasons during the war. There are many scary parallels between that time and this one. And newspaper editors are not so independant as we might hope-many newspapers are part of a conglomerate. Having said that, I do think it would be tremndously difficult if not impossible to keep this story under wraps. I just don’t think the current PTB have what they need in place-too many of their “balls in the air” are tumbling down.

Heres a thought for the states-if many incumbants lose thier seats in next weeks election, who knows what might come out into the open? On the other hand, if there is a massive shake-up there may be too much confusion to get ducks in a row before flu season.

I still think incompetence trumps conspiracy….but I allways like to hear a good conspiracy theory! :-)

LA Escapee – at 19:08

Treasure Island Gal at 11:16:

Regarding a “catchy name” for the flu, how about “Captain Tripps”? ;)

(For those that don’t understand the reference, that’s the “catchy name” for the bug in Stephen King’s “the Stand.”

Olymom – at 19:17

I’m a fan of just “H5N1” because it won’t be confused with regular influenza. “Killer Flu” is good but could become a joke if a year or more go by without big problems.

Nova – at 19:18

During Katrina I remember that the TV media pulled no punches in reporting the horrors. I remember one particular reporter from one of the cable news networks cussed the lack of government response online…I have never seen a reporter so angry and vocal about it. And, he wasn’t the only one. I remember many people who had been critical and suspicious of the MSM finally gained a measure of respect for them. I think if the SHTF there will be reporters with integrity who will buck the system to actually report the news. Call me crazy…

Wonderer – at 19:40

Nova, I hope you aren’t talking about Geraldo and his reports from New Orleans. My uncle lives in New Orleans and the stories about Geraldo setting up shots and making people do things for the camera to sensationalize it is old news in the Big Easy.

C o t W – at 20:07

No government will be able to hide the dead and keep JIT supply chains going. We already know that and that’s why this is a prepping site which also distils news.

Meserole in FL – at 20:45

I’d guess that Nova is referring to Shephard Smith from Fox News? He was really angry during a couple of his newscasts.

Nova – at 21:36

YES! It was Shephard Smith. Thanks for giving credit where credit was definitely due. I remember being impressed, especially since Fox’s apparent policy is to rarely criticize the present government administration. I thought it took a lot of courage.

And, no, it was definitely NOT good old Geraldo. Nothing he has ever done has ever impressed me…

DennisCat 22:31

the problem I had with “Shep” in NO was that at one time he and the camera crew were standing on a by pass saying the people came up out of the water and didn’t know which way to go (left or right). The news crew knew but made no effort to tell them to go “right”. It would have been so easy to tell them or to mark a simple sign - but no they were more interested in the story than in helping. I had really liked “Shep” up till then.

Nova – at 22:45

DennisC: never saw that clip. Oh, well, guess that just proves no one is perfect. We all just have our moments.

On the fence and leaning – at 22:47

NOVA: OK, the media may not normally pull punches but in the end, the government can and will be able to control the air waves. I don’t usually dip into the conspiracy barrel but I have read enough on here about executive orders in the past few weeks to make me wonder if the TPTB are ‘prepping’ in ways we haven’t or don’t want to consider. thus endeth the sermon

Nova – at 22:58

OTF&L: Possibility is that, as a result of Katrina, the government learned hard lessons about allowing the press too much freedom. You very well may be right.

But, as an aside, and just because I got so so so so sick of watching ALL the news stations today (and at the risk of getting the mods mad at me) in the end, in the good old USA, the Dems are going to blame the Republicans, and the Republicans are going to blame the Democrats, and no one is going to get around to assigning the responsibility where it truly belongs.

On the fence and leaning – at 23:01

Hey, a blacked out Ford Sedan keeps driving by my house all of a sudden. ;-)

DennisCat 23:17

Remember in all this if the TSHTF as we think, the news teams will be hit as well. Many will be “locked out” of towns due to quarentine. The communication lines may be “thin” at best. My guess is, like now, most of the news feeds and pictures will come from LA, NY,DC and a few from Atlanta and Chicago with very little from the “heartland”. The news rooms will have the same 40% absenteeism as everyone else. Towns may not be able to hide the stacks of bodies but there may not be anyone to film it.

On the fence and leaning – at 23:01 -blacked out Ford Sedan

Be sure to put on your tin foil hat so they cannot beam you. :)

Nova – at 23:23

I would like to renew previous requests of several posters to ask those folks who are near Bush’s Texas ranch and other strategic government locations to keep us updated on unusual activity. It’s always about what they do and not what they say that really counts.

I will never forget that movie, Deep Impact, where the blond reporter (you know the one: the worst actress of the century) discovered the government guy resigning his job and taking off with his family with a heck of a lot of Ensure to sustain them. It’s always about what they do…

Bird Guano – at 23:25

Walrus – at 00:01

At an international level, I have a sense that if China has a bad pandemic, then they want the rest of the world to share it to avoid altering the balance of power in the world, or to perhaps tilt it to Chinas advantage.


Not only yes, but HELL yes.

Why do you think China has been witholding sequences all this time ?

China wants the advantage and will not hesitate to try and get it, even if it puts the rest of the world at risk.

Bird Guano – at 23:33

And I should add this is not ethnic labeling, but the result of doing business in China, and knowing the chinese mindset for dozens of years.

Gary Near Death Valley – at 23:50

With what is going on in China now, this limrick is getting closer and closer. There was an old man with a beard Who said, “It is just as I feared: The owls and the wren, The larks and the hen Caught bird flu. They’ve all disappeared.” Apologies to Edward Lear (and absit omen).

tjclaw1 – at 23:57

Got an e-mail from a relative who is stationed in the middle east and this comment kinda surprised me:

“I’ve been stabbed three times. Yup, the smallpox immunization are here! I wonder if all the hype is true. I wonder how long it will take to hit. I wonder.”

I know this is not AI related, but thought it appropriate for the rumor thread and other situations we should be prepping for.

LA Escapee – at 23:59

Anderson Cooper was also famously righteously angry. I read his book recently. He said a lot of locals were doing their best under horrible conditions with no outside help. When the outsiders finally came, they wanted to run everything and the locals resented the hell out of it.

Cooper was very angry about the dead bodies left uncollected for so long - kept comparing it to things he’d seen in third-world countries. Couldn’t believe it happened in the U.S., since it was such a serious health hazard, and a horrible trauma for locals to see. Cooper really took it personally because his late father grew up there, and he had gone on trips there with him as a child. If you saw his show at the time, as the days went by he really seemed to suffer some post traumatic stress disorder.

I believe Shephard Smith is also originally from Louisiana, but don’t know what part. He was probably especially angry because he may still have relatives there.

If you look at the Katrina/Fema first response as a future model, it scares you, because there was no prioritizing done for the sake of public health - no priority to giving first evacuations or food/generators to hospitals or nursing homes, no quick body disposal, no ambulances to the Superdome to take the sickest away, or doctors/Red Cross with insulin and formula, etc. The excuse for not going to the Superdome was, “It’s too dangerous,” i.e., they’re poor, minority, and from a bad neighborhood, and we’re afraid of them, so they’re the last group we’re going to help.

What if medical and other aid workers decide during an PanFlu epidemic, “It’s too scary to help people in the bad neighborhoods, so don’t go there?” You’ll have riots and looting as poor people without food/meds/organization fend for themselves. People aren’t just going to lie there and die because the civilians that run charities, utilities and public services are afraid to go to the bad part of town, and there’s no effective security in place.

02 November 2006

Bird Guano – at 00:17

La Escapee The excuse for not going to the Superdome was, “It’s too dangerous,” i.e., they’re poor, minority, and from a bad neighborhood, and we’re afraid of them, so they’re the last group we’re going to help.


I have friends who were at ground zero.

It WAS too dangerous.

It had nothing to do with race or socioeconomic status.

FEMA had a DMAT team there a day after the hurricane. They had to enter the superdome with an armed guard with a machine gun from Federal Protective Agency to do any patient contact.

They quickly ran out of meds and supplies, and didn’t get resupplied.

There was nightly gunfire inside the Superdome from the gang bangers. One of the national guard guys was injured by a gang banger w/ a weapon. The FPS “tagged” the DMAT people so they knew who not to shoot if push came to shove inside, in the dark.

I’m not condoning the overall response at all, but it did become too dangerous for a medical team to be onsite, so they pulled them out and fell back to the airport where there was a HUGE medical operation. (4 DMAT teams)

The problem was in the evacuation logistics through the flood, and not enough food/water/meds to keep people going until evac.

That part was botched until the military finally got there from Baton Rouge.

Day late and a dollar short.

anonymous – at 00:38

Homesteader – at 09:10

Trying to come up with VADER as in Darth, but haven’t had enough coffee yet.

Viral Avian Disease Ends Respiration

LA Escapee – at 00:46

Bird Guano: Having grown up in Los Angeles, I can tell you that N.O. isn’t the only place with gang bangers with no sense of appropriate timing. I think these disasters just rip the cover off of a lot of problems that were there all along.

There are no disasters that happen in a vaccum.

I’d be really interested in your take on why the supplies ran out so quickly, and no re-supply. Bad distribution, or physical obstacles to re-supply?

FrenchieGirlat 06:23

tjclaw1 – at 23:57 - “I’ve been stabbed three times. Yup, the smallpox immunization are here! I wonder if all the hype is true. I wonder how long it will take to hit. I wonder.”

I don’t know what the present hype is, but I just hope for your friend that what I saw on TV a few years ago was well taken care of. The French national TV showed a more or less completely destructed and pillaged Iraq lab that was doing small pox studies and reporting many vials containing the virus had been stolen…

JWB – at 07:00

tjclaw1 – at 23:57 Got an e-mail from a relative who is stationed in the middle east and this comment kinda surprised me:

“I’ve been stabbed three times. Yup, the smallpox immunization are here! I wonder if all the hype is true. I wonder how long it will take to hit. I wonder.”


27 October 2006

Dr Dave – at 07:04

…He did offer, however, that there was a second virus out there that worries him just as much as H5N1…..


Smallpox is what I was thinking when Dr. Dave mentioned a second virus. The Soviets made TONS of weaponized smallpox stocks. It was reportedly so nasty (99% CFR) and horrible it was called ‘Blackpox’. Your skin would turn black and fall off. I remember reading news and rumors of lots of it missing. Also the Iraqi Republican Guard was vaccinated for it prior to the Iraq war.

 In 2000 Congress did a study called “Dark Winter”. It was an exercise of a terrorist attack on three American cities using smallpox. Very chilling. Just google ‘Dark Winter’ and .gov .
JWB – at 07:31

Here is the Dark Winter exercise. Since I can’t tinyurl here at work I’ll break apart the web address. Just get rid of the spaces:

http :/ /www .homelandsecurity. org/ darkwinter /docs /DARK_WINTER .pdf

Hope that works.

Warning. There are graphic pictures of real smallpox victims.

JWB – at 07:34

This scenario could be a H5N1 scenario. Congress had many hearings on this and came up with new laws to be used as a result.

laura in pa – at 08:40

jwb, that’s a very interesting read

ChuckEat 08:40

JWB at 7:31 Dark_Winter

Wow that’s a very sobering read. I wonder if the smallpox vac I got when I was a kid will still keep me from dying that way. I had to skim thru some of the exersize because the words were making me sick to my stomach. Thanks for that iluminating and cheerfull read this morning JWB. I think I am going to go check on my lockdown supplies now.

crfullmoon – at 08:55

Dark Winter - said hospitals couldn’t handle a 10% surge in patient demand over a sustained period.

Didn’t do much about that that past several years since, eh?

JWB – at 09:03

ChuckE – at 08:40

I believe that people that were vaccinated have about a 10% chance of immunity. This was a best guess. I can’t remember where I read that, its been a few years. I have no doubt that smallpox has fallen into the wrong hands. The Feds have been stockpiling vaccine for it frantically for the last 5 years. Just google it. They wouldn’t be doing it if they didn’t think it was possible.

Now if it is Blackpox, its a different story. A vaccination might not work. Black Pox replicates within the body extremely fast and can over run the immune system. Again, its been years since I studied it and I’m at work at the moment, can’t generate the links right now to back it up.

Bird Guano – at 10:01

LA Escapee – at 00:46

I’d be really interested in your take on why the supplies ran out so quickly, and no re-supply. Bad distribution, or physical obstacles to re-supply?


My understanding was because of several factors:

major medical conditions at the Superdome. Unanticipated.

These are the highlights off the top of my head, keeping in mind this was a conversation over Merlot a year ago.

DennisCat 10:16

Just for a reality check about smallpox

Iraq and North Korea Possess Smallpox, Intelligence Indicates

A U.S. intelligence official confirmed that the Central Intelligence Agency concluded last spring that Iraq, Russia, France and North Korea are likely to possess stocks of smallpox…Much of the evidence that Iraq has the pathogen comes from evidence found during U.N. weapons inspections in the early 1990s that the country was pursuing smallpox as a weapons program. U.N. inspectors examining Iraqi medical facilities discovered an industrial-size freeze dryer, the type used by microbiologists to extend the life of germ samples, that was labeled in Arabic “smallpox machine.”

http://tinyurl.com/yebjmd

This is from the UCLA depart. of epidemiology quoting a Washington post 2002 article.

JWB – at 10:16

I just had some time to reread the Dark Winter link I posted here. Believe it or not, this is a watered down version. The one that I remember continued several months into the future. If I remember correctly by month 3 the US cease to exist.

The hunt for the original will have to wait till tommorrow. It was on a congressional site. This one I linked is homelandsecurity which didn’t exist in June 2001. Also the video clips were accessible. They even used a real CNN anchor. It was quite scary.

DennisCat 10:47

Dark Winter http://tinyurl.com/y44wpe

notice the power point and video downloads on right.

JWB – at 11:00

Thanks DennisC !!

FrenchieGirlat 11:17

DennisC – at 10:16 - Just for a reality check about smallpox… Iraq and North Korea Possess Smallpox, Intelligence Indicates… A U.S. intelligence official confirmed that the Central Intelligence Agency concluded last spring that Iraq, Russia, France and North Korea are likely to possess stocks of smallpox

Excuse-me, this is very ironical, the finding of Iraq’s stolen lab smallpox strains (and if I remember right, Russian origin was mentioned) _was splashed_ on French TV just after the Iraq war a few years ago and CIA has concluded last spring that… Oh boy! How on earth can the American citizen possibly believe that their spying structures can help protect them??? Do they even have an American spy in the whole of France understanding sufficient French to watch a TV documentary?


Back to BF rumours…

Facts: I have just seen the starlings migration in my park in Geneva, they’re moving in with the cold front descending on Europe now. I saw ducks 10 days ago.

Rumours: From what I remember, they normally arrive a fortnight earlier. They’re in the middle of UK (Birmingham/Nottingham) in the first week of October. However I know nothing about duck migrations in my area.

Questions: Can starlings bring H5N1, low or high path? Does this mean also that other migrating birds are late? Were those ducks I saw late or not?

observer – at 11:20

Dark Winter demonstrates the potential threat we face from multiple sources and why prepping should not be linked to a single event (avian influenza pandemic, Y2K, the cold war, Katrina, blizzards, 9–11). Unfortunately, people frequently dismiss the whole idea when the potential disaster of the moment doesn’t come to pass. My parents generation believed in being prepared and they were - they live through alot. They didn’t expected the govenment would be able to arrive and save them. It is time we too, understand what they understood. We are each responsible for those we love. Government will do what it can but it will be very limited. The threat has always been real, we chose not to think about it; to ignore it; to expects it was someone elses job; to shoot the messenger; to lay the blame elsewhere. Sometimes reality sucks but that doesn’t change the facts.

crfullmoon – at 11:22

JWB – at 09:03 :-(

Frenchie Girl, “can the American citizen possibly believe that their spying structures can help protect them???” Je le ne croix pas.

observer – at 11:37

FrenchieGirl – at 11:17

Article was from 2002 - “Just for a reality check about smallpox… Iraq and North Korea Possess Smallpox, Intelligence Indicates… A U.S. intelligence official confirmed that the Central Intelligence Agency concluded last spring that Iraq, Russia, France and North Korea are likely to possess stocks of smallpox”

Closed and Continued - Bronco Bill – at 12:01

My oh my, how rumors fly! This thread is long. Again. Closed and continued here

Last relevant posts copied to new thread

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Page last modified on November 02, 2006, at 12:01 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / The Chinese Governments Plot to Hide Their Role in Causing a Pandemic

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: The Chinese Governments Plot to Hide Their Role in Causing a Pandemic

02 November 2006

Scaredy Cat – at 02:49

What happened to this thread that Monotreme started?

anon_22 – at 02:53

It was deleted for inappropriate content.

Speculations about conspiracy theories concerning the Chinese government is the fastest one-way ticket to get this site banned for anyone trying to read it from inside their jurisdiction. Please keep comments on this forum non-emotive and non-conspiratorial.

Scaredy Cat – at 09:11

anon-22 at 02:53 -

It was deleted for inappropriate content.

Speculations about conspiracy theories concerning the Chinese government is the fastest one-way ticket to get this site banned for anyone trying to read it from inside their jurisdiction. Please keep comments on this forum non-emotive and non-conspiratorial.

WTF?

So now the Flu Wiki forum is to be censored so as not to displease the highly repressive Chinese government?

Unbelievable.

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Page last modified on November 02, 2006, at 09:11 AM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Come Together

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Come Together

30 October 2006

moeb – at 19:32

It is time to consider coming together. When the pandemic begins many of us are in places best left behind. If you could, would you leave your residence for another location to be with others who’s goal was to survive the pandemic? What would the rules of such a plan, be? How would such groups form.

LauraBat 19:44

I would only consider grouping with others I know very, very well (eg. family and only the closest of friends). As dh nor I have any family in the immediate area this woule require a decent amount of travel. If things are ugly I’d much rather stay put then risk lengthy travel. I have my preps and water here, backup power (for awhile anyway), fresh water from streams, etc. if need be. The one main drawback to our location is isolation (which is a also a plus) and distance needed to travel to get to anywhere.

I think the only way such a plan is workable in general is if you’ve laid out the work ahead of time - made plans with others you’d be with, work out logistis of who’s brining what, what all the resources are, etc. This would be tough to do if communications are down, gas is in short supply, and tensions are high because of PF stress. And choose who you SIP with very, very carefully. I have lots of friends in the area but I know I couldn’t take them for weeks on end - and don’t even get me started on my MIL!

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 19:52

If you’ve got a set-up like The Farm in Canada, then yeah, but it’s just my husband and me, and the cats so I probably wouldn’t risk anyone else’s health by trying to join up with them.

Prepping Gal – at 20:02

I wouldn’t consider grouping because of the added stress. If we can work together with neighbors to share resources but maintain separateness I think that could be a good thing. We don’t live in the city therefore my situation may not be the same as yours. I would not allow any relatives or friends to stay under our roof and in my case that would include my DD, SIL or their children. Done that, been there, not going to do it. I’ll help at arms length with temporary measures but under my roof, no, I want to keep stress at a minimum, workload manageable and control our resources. I know what works and what doesn’t in the best of times. You have to be practical about these decisions.

Average Concerned Mom – at 20:11

Yup, I would leave if I had a plan (and a place).

I’ve come to realize in a severe pandemic, my children’s best chance of survival would be in a group of other (mentally, physically and emotionally prepared) people.

How to accomplish that? moeb, I’m thinking — world’s weirdest personal ad?

Average Concerned Mom – at 20:14

Oh — and as to rule of the plan? Doesn’t matter, as long as I get to be queen. (-:

moeb – at 20:21

puts you down for lowly harem member :-)

moeb – at 20:22

getting serious for a moment… I think this is a trend (no, not the harem thing)

moeb – at 20:24

speaking of teepees and I must… the real girlfriend just bought one on ebay for $550 (covers butt cause she sometimes reads this) ;-)

gharris – at 20:36

I was thinking abt getting a solar powered 3 way walkietalkie kind of device so that we can communicate with our two other closest neighbours if the phones go down - all 3 of us are on farms within walking distance of each other and each will likely have extended family under our roof - if all the grown kids get here early after TSHTF and (in our case) shelter 2 weeks in a tent in the barn/driveshed/garage - so we can be sure no infection brought in, then all three families cd join forces for necessary tasks -i.e. hunting/fishing/woodchopping etc - share things like meds etc if nec - but live separately in our own ‘compounds’ - just formulating the plan in my mind - but might work as we wd be distant enough to control infection but close enough (if sure of no ‘breakouts’) that some kind of communal effort wd be possible. Geez - as I think of it, one of those neighbour’s family members just diagnosed with cancer in both lungs - (age 40 nonsmoker athletic!!) that wd be a very tough added stress in pandemic!! This sure aint gonna be a picnic!!

moeb – at 20:40

nope not easy at all, but keep in mind it’s only eighteen months (said somewhat tongue in cheek)

Oremus – at 23:11

If we all pool our money, maybe we could buy this as a community retreat. If too much, I’m sure we could get a good deal on this alternative.

moeb – at 23:21

I think I had Hillbilly’s forty acres in mind :-) I’m thinking this is more of a localized grouping thing. I don’t know.. what is the ideal number of people? and for kicks.. what if you didn’t have real power (elec) what if you semi camped. with community kitchens, showers etc. How expensive is that?

02 November 2006

Average Concerned Mom – at 08:31

moeb — at 20:21

Oh gosh, I just read your comment!

All I can say is, any man who has THIS Average Concerned Mom as a harem member better have a damn fine solar array ---if you catch my drift! (-:

Now quite flirting with the married ladies on the Wiki and go pay attention to that girlfriend (and her teepee).

moeb – at 09:03

looks at my solar array… hmm does size matter?

moeb – at 09:05

Seriously… anybody out there have a large enough plot of land that would support 10 to 50 families? I have in mind regional locations that could be pulled together to offer sanctuary to those fluwikians who need it.

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.ComeTogether
Page last modified on November 02, 2006, at 09:05 AM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / News Reports for November 1

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: News Reports for November 1

01 November 2006

AnnieBat 01:28

(If you want any of the links to open in a new window, hold down the shift key and then click on the link)

Summary from Indonesia Outbreak as at 31 October 2006

Cases DiscussedJun-06Jul-06Aug-06Sep-06Oct-06Total
Died, no tests2243617
Died, tested positive4323315
Other tested positive013105
Suspected symptoms42463833123
Tested negative062619758
Totals1014816449218

Lookout Posts – here are the links (if no Lookout Post exists, it will not be highlighted)

Please visit these threads for latest information from these regions or to add news

NoRegion NameNoRegion NameNoRegion Name
1USA8East Africa15Arab Peninsula
2Canada, Greenland and the Arctic Circle9Southern Africa and Madagascar16Central Asia
3Central America and Caribbean10Northwest Europe and British Isles17Southern Asia
4South America and Surrounding Islands11West and Southwest Europe18Mainland East Asia and Japan
5Northern Africa12Central and Southeast Europe19Southeast Asia
6West Africa13Eastern Europe and Baltic Region20Australasia Melanesia and Micronesia
7Central Africa14Middle East and Caucasus Region21Pacific Islands and Antarctic

(Please see the thread Volunteers Needed as Lookouts Worldwide if you want to help)


Summary of News for 31 October 2006

(From WHO as at 31 Oct - latest update) Total human cases worldwide 256, deaths 152 (2006 – 109 with 74 deaths)

Egypt

India

Indonesia

Nepal

New Zealand

United Kingdom

United States of America

General

Link to news thread for 31 October (link News Reports for October 31 )
(Usual disclaimer about may not have captured everything. Feel free to add your own where omissions have occurred.)
Please note that I copy the links directly from the thread so if they don’t work you may need to re-visit the Thread.

AnnieBat 01:31

FAO first bird flu workshop held in Tehran

Wednesday, November 01, 2006 - ©2005 IranMania.com (link http://tinyurl.com/y22vhr)

LONDON, November 1 (IranMania) - First bird flu tutorial workshop was inaugurated at the General Veterinary Department of Tehran Province, the Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA) reported.

Sponsored by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), representatives from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Turkey, Afghanistan, Azerbaijan and Iran were among the participants in this seminar.

The chairman of Iran Veterinary Organization (I.V.O) Hossein Hassani said that Iran has so far been successful in fighting against bird flu despite the existence of numerous bird-breeding centers in both urban and rural areas.

He also said that Iran Veterinary Organization is adequately ready to implement FAO plans.

At the inaugural ceremony, officials from FAO delivered speeches on the measures taken by the organization to control avian flu.

According to officials, serious strategies to prevent transmission of the disease from infected regions to non-infected areas, and minimizing the onset epidemic from human to human are among FAO’s measures to fight against bird flu.

They also named the qualitative and quantitative improvement of poultry products, and the promotion of hygiene in rural areas, wherein birds are bred, as the effective measures to prevent the disease.

AnnieBat 01:33

Information on bird flu cases poorly recorded, scientists say

Errors and vagueness in data about wild birds hamper efforts to track the disease

The highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza has been detected in at least 55 countries in Asia, Europe, and Africa. This often fatal disease is of pressing concern because it can be transmitted from birds to humans, although such transmissions have been rare so far. Unfortunately, according to a Roundtable article in the November 2006 BioScience, the journal of the American Institute of Biological Sciences (AIBS), critical information about incidence of the disease in wild birds—even the species of the infected bird—is often recorded inaccurately or not recorded at all. The deficiencies in data collection, the authors write, “can lead to unwarranted assumptions and conclusions that in turn affect public perceptions, practical control and management measures, and the disposition of resources.”

More on this story at http://tinyurl.com/y9lzm9

AnnieBat 01:38

(USA) Stopping Killer Flu Requires Good Science, Good Government, Barton Says

WASHINGTON - U.S. Rep. Joe Barton, R-Texas, chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, issued the following statement today as part of a hearing entitled, “Assessing the National Pandemic Flu Preparedness Plan”:

“An influenza pandemic has happened before in America, though probably not in the living memory of anyone in this room. Still, the odds are that it will happen again sometime, and so the administration is certainly correct to sound a warning and to prepare for the worst. We know that when it occurs, this pandemic could lead to widespread sickness, many deaths, and serious damage to the nation’s economy.

<snip> “Authorities including the president are worried that the flu virus could spread around the globe. <snip> “In response to this threat, last week the president outlined a national strategy. Secretary Leavitt also recently released an updated and detailed Pandemic Influenza Preparedness and Response Plan.

“At today’s hearing, Secretary Leavitt will tell us about the national strategy, the Influenza Preparedness Plan and other recent actions taken by the Administration. These include the increasing the program for global surveillance and cooperation with the international community and developing an H5N1 vaccine. Even though this particular vaccine is not the final vaccine for the actual pandemic strain, this step is important for preparing for surge production of a later vaccine. The Department of Health and Human Services also is working with State public health officials for pandemic planning.

<snip> “Some may argue that we have failed to meet our responsibilities by not providing unlimited money to respond to this potential crisis. Too often, Washington’s response to anything new and challenging is to panic. Too often, our response to potential threats is to hide behind a wall of money. <snip>

“It’s the labor theory of value written into public health. The harder we work to spend your money, the healthier you will be. But I think wasting taxpayers’ money will not keep people from catching the flu.

“We need to sort out our real weaknesses from our imagined ones, and determine where the application of money and good sense will actually improve our preparedness and stop the flu.

<snip>

“The president is calling on us for legislation to respond to a global health threat. I look forward to hearing the testimony of Secretary Leavitt about the administration’s ongoing efforts and then working with him as we develop a plan that delivers good science and good government.”

Full statement at http://tinyurl.com/yyc86k

AnnieBat 01:41

Ecologists Will Study West Nile Virus, Malaria, Bird Flu And Other Infectious Diseases

Main Category: Infectious Diseases / Bacteria / Viruses News Article Date: 31 Oct 2006 - 22:00pm (PST)

Over the past 20 years, unprecedented changes in biodiversity have coincided with the emergence and re-emergence of numerous infectious diseases around the world. To address this problem, the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Institutes of Health (NIH) have announced funding for eight projects under the Ecology of Infectious Diseases (EID) program, a multi-year, joint-agency effort now in its seventh year of funding.

“The joint program supports efforts to create a predictive understanding of the ecological and biological mechanisms that govern relationships among human-induced environmental changes and transmission of infectious diseases,” said Samuel Scheiner, program director in NSF’s biological sciences directorate, which funds the EID program along with NSF’s geosciences directorate.

<snip>

This year’s awards include developing a better understanding of the effects of avian migration and human-caused change on the distribution and risks of avian influenza; predicting variations in West Nile virus transmission in different regions; the changing dynamics of malaria and other diseases in Papua New Guinea; disease resistance in estuarine populations like oysters and the response to climate change; sudden oak death and links among pathogens, hosts and environments; the influence of environmental change on how parasites move through human, invertebrate and environmental pathways; and others.

<snip>

Previous research looked at diseases only after they had reached humans, or only at non-human animals, said EID program directors at NSF and NIH’s Fogarty International Center. The EID program links those different components to produce a comprehensive understanding of disease transmission, said Joshua Rosenthal, NIH program director for EID.

Full story at http://tinyurl.com/y3u4fr

AnnieBat 03:59

(South Africa) EU allows SA ostrich imports

November 01, 2006, 08:30 (link http://tinyurl.com/y5jk8r)

The European Union will from today again allow imports of South African ostriches and ostrich products. A ban was implemented in July following the outbreak of the H5N2 strain of avian influenza in the Southern Cape.

The South African ostrich industry has been losing R100 million per month in exports since the ban was introduced. A previous 18-month export ban was only lifted a year ago, because of an outbreak of bird-flu in 2004.

Doug Baker – at 04:31

I saw a tv commercial from GlaxoSmithKline. The commerical indicaets they are working on a vaccine for bird flu. I am a bit suprised this has hit MSM.

They give a web site, but I did not write it down fast enough. A little searching and I found this one: http://www.gsk.com/infocus/influenza.htm

AnnieBat 04:37

UK experts to help draw up flu pandemic model Cynthia Busuttil

(Report from Malta) A statistician from the Health Division will be working with British experts to prepare a model of how the next influenza pandemic might affect the island. Data from last century’s three pandemics - 1918, 1957 and 1968 - will be used to create the model, Nigel Lightfoot, director for emergency response within the UK’s Health Protection Agency’s Centre for Emergency Preparedness and Response, told The Times. It is hoped the information will shed light on what could happen when an influenza pandemic strikes, making it easier for decision makers to make their plans.

“The plan is to look at records for the past pandemics so we can tell the government what we think will happen during a next one.” Dr Lightfoot, who was in Malta last week, explained that this exercise has already been carried out in the UK. Experts are assuming that the influenza pandemic will have an attack rate of between 25 and 30 per cent with about two per cent of those who fall ill dying.

<snip> “In bigger countries, the likelihood is that it will start in one area and move to another, and then another. But here it is more likely to pass through the population faster. The advantage is that it will be over quicker.”

Dr Lightfoot, who had a look at the local plan during a meeting with the pandemic preparedness committee, believes Malta is “up there with the frontrunners”, saying the government is taking the threat very seriously. “Things have moved a long way” over the past 18 months, he said. <snip> The government needs to finalise its policy on what to do about mass social gatherings and the public advice to be issued during a pandemic, something which is considered as most important by the World Health Organisation.

<snip> If people fall ill they should stay at home while the business community needs to plan how to cope when employees are sick. Those who do not take it seriously enough will find they have problems once the pandemic hits. Another thing that needs to be taken into consideration is school closures.

<snip> Asked about border closure, Dr Lightfoot said unless this is done 100 per cent it would only delay the virus entering a country by a week or two. Full border closure means a country might run short of needed supplies. “I think internationally everyone is agreeing that there is no need to close borders.”

Full story at http://tinyurl.com/y4bugz

AnnieBat 04:43

WHO blasts Chinese ministry for not sharing new bird flu strain samples

The Associated Press Published: November 1, 2006 (link http://tinyurl.com/skq24)

BEIJING The World Health Organization on Wednesday criticized China’s Agriculture Ministry for not sharing samples of a newly discovered strain of bird flu that has become the primary version of the disease in southern China and parts of Asia.

Scientists said this week that the strain — called H5N1 Fujian-like — was found in almost all poultry infections and some human cases in China in the past year and was now prevalent in Hong Kong, Laos, Malaysia, and Thailand. While it’s normal for new strains of viruses to emerge, it is imperative for health officials to know if one has become dominant, said Julie Hall, an infectious disease expert at the WHO’s Beijing office.

“There’s a stark contrast between what we’re hearing from researchers and what the Ministry of Agriculture says,” Hall said in an interview with The Associated Press. “Unless the ministry tell us what’s going on and shares viruses on a regular basis, we will be doing diagnostics on strains that are old.”

<snip> The ministry’s reluctance has been an ongoing source of aggravation at the WHO and international health experts have repeatedly complained about Chinese foot-dragging in cooperating in investigating emerging diseases like bird flu and severe acute respiratory syndrome.

“This is a new disease. Nobody knows how to tackle it, nobody in the world has all the answers,” Hall said. “But if they share … then we will all gain from that.”

<snip> Hall said the ministry has reported only three outbreaks of bird flu in provinces where one out of 30 geese and ducks in live markets tested positive for H5N1 in the yearlong surveillance program, which began in June 2005, indicating that the disease was still prevalent. Additionally, 95 percent of the poultry tested after October 2005 were positive for the Fujian-like strain, according to the results of the study reported in Tuesday’s issue of Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

“The ministry needs to tell us just how many substrains are circulating in China and whether some strains are dominant or becoming more dominant,” Hall said.

<snip>

uk bird – at 05:28

http://tinyurl.com/yyc78j

A heads up for a new Horizon documentary on UK TV Tuesday 7 November 2006, 9pm on BBC2. Don’t know how good it will be. Horizon used to be one of the best researched and presented series on tv but in recent years it’s gone down the plug hole.

anon_22 – at 05:40

uk bird, Can you or someone record it for me please? I’m in Asia and won’t be back in the UK till after. Thanks!

cottontop – at 05:48

AnnieB- You beat me to all the good stuff!

Good morning. It’s getting harder to find news that others haven’t, and that’s good. Guess I’m going to have to get up earlier to catch that worm! Have a good day.

Floridian Doc – at 08:27

AnnieB – at 01:38 Do you know when this was released from Barton’s office? It appears to be from Feb or March of this year. I went to the site and there is no date.

Green Mom – at 08:35

Three days in a row Bird flu has been in the headline news for Google news. Wow-MSM must be picking up on this. (The stories are all stories that have allready been linked here)

uk bird – at 08:37

I’ll record it for you anon_22, though don’t get your hopes up it will be any better than any of the other pandemic stuff recently aired.

Okieman – at 08:53

Floridian Doc – at 08:27

I also got the impression that the article was dated.

Klatu – at 09:12

BIRD FLU: VIRUS NEAR GROSSETO ITALY- HUNDREDS OF WILD DUCKS CULLED

(AGI) - Grosseto, Nov. 1 - “After the discovery of avian influenza yesterday in the Grosseto area, hundreds of animals will be put down. Late yesterday evening, the Health Ministry asked the National Avian Influenza Centre for its advice concerning the whether the ministerial decree DM 22/9/2000 should be urgently applied regarding the wild duck breeding grounds on which bird flu has been found, with the H5 strain and of the N type, still a phase of definition, but having ruled out that it is the “N1?, the most contagious.

The ministerial decree referred to provides for the culling of all the animals on the farm. The Health Ministry made the decision along with the Tuscany regional government and the healthcare body of Grosseto on the way to go about the matter in this specific case, and supplied instructions for the culling itself. In addition to the putting down of the wild ducks, the ministerial orders provide for other measures to limit the likelihood of the spread of the virus, which consist mostly in the establishing of a surveillance zone with a kilometre radius around the farm in question, surveillance which will begin immediately after the ordinance by the mayor of Grosseto and which will last for three weeks after the culling. In the zone the entire bird population will once again be checked, even birds intended for use by single families, as was done previously, since the entire area is inside or very close to a humid zone used by migratory birds. For the period in question, all the animals checked are to be considered under seizure and will have to be kept on the farms, prohibited from coming in or going out, including both the birds themselves and their products, meaning eggs and chicks.

The culling of the farm-bred wild ducks will be carried out within a few days by a specialized firm, and the bodies will be destroyed and buried on the land where they are found after having their bodies disinfected. The owners of the animals culled will be reimbursed for the market value of the animals, established by an ad hoc committee provided for by law in the case of forced culling. “(AGI) .

http://tinyurl.com/tvwvl

anon_22 – at 09:12

uk bird,

Thanks! I’ll try to stay cool and not strangle the VCR (or whatever it is that you use) out of frustration.

But, seriously, I’m a little curious about the 3 full pages of (albeit) Times 2 on Monday. Could it be that MSM is getting ready to get serious about this story again?

uk bird – at 09:29

anon_22 – at 09:12

But, seriously, I’m a little curious about the 3 full pages of (albeit) Times 2 on Monday. Could it be that MSM is getting ready to get serious about this story again?

Mmmm, I won’t hold my breath.

Perhaps more significant and more worrying will be the Panorama on BB1 Sunday 10:15 pm Soaring gas bills are pushing up the cost of heating our homes - and forcing up electricity bills too. Steve Bradshaw investigates why prices are rising. [S]

One of the biggest vulnerabilities to UK stability in a crisis would be the gas.

http://tinyurl.com/3fp3h

Something I noticed while I was looking for this program was a ‘suggest a story’ link. Perhaps the Fluwiki would make a good story for them and thus put OUR opinion over rather than the standard line?

http://tinyurl.com/y27xhl

FrenchieGirlat 09:32

Klatu at 09:12

Italy - The news from 31 October 2006 - http://tinyurl.com/yjgqsm - Prima Pagina (in Italian) say it’s a low pathogenic strain. The ill ducks were found during routing examinations of farm birds regularly undertaken since last year. The only question I have is how can they be wild ducks if they are raised at a farm?

FrenchieGirlat 09:37

Klatu at 09:12

Italy - The news from 31 October 2006 - http://tinyurl.com/yjgqsm - Prima Pagina (in Italian) say it’s a low pathogenic strain. The ill ducks were found during routing examinations of farm birds regularly undertaken since last year. The only question I have is how can they be wild ducks if they are raised at a farm?

Klatu – at 09:57

FrenchieGirl – at 09:37 wrote:

‘’‘FrenchieGirl – at 09:37 Klatu at 09:12

“Italy - The news from 31 October 2006 - http://tinyurl.com/yjgqsm - Prima Pagina (in Italian) say it’s a low pathogenic strain. The ill ducks were found during routing examinations of farm birds regularly undertaken since last year. ‘’‘The only question I have is how can they be wild ducks if they are raised at a farm?” “”“


Your question should be answered shortly.

Klatu – at 10:07

New bird flu virus strain emerges: study - Ducks susceptible to BF year-round

17:06, November 01, 2006

People’s Daily Online

They found that ducks and geese were the most common carriers, and they were susceptible to bird flu year-round. Chickens tend to succumb only in the winter, but the researchers discovered cases in 11 out of the 12 months of their study, up from four out of 12 months the previous year.” - excerpt

http://tinyurl.com/y3cvxy

- this may help connect the dots

cottontop – at 10:32

British scientists create new bird flu map

daelnet.co.uk

second story on left

cottontop – at 10:33

www.daelnet.co.uk

sorry

Klatu – at 12:05

L.A. officials warned to prepare for avian flu

Article Launched:10/31/2006

LOS ANGELES — “Although the spread of the avian flu is slowing in Europe and is unlikely to hit the U.S. soon, Los Angeles County health officials warned school districts and government agencies on Monday to continue preparing for its eventual arrival.

“What’s known now is that the spread of the avian H5N1 virus has seemed to slow down,” said Sadina Reynaldo, an epidemiologist with the county Department of Public Health. She emphasized government officials and the public should continue to prepare for a pandemic.

Reynaldo made the comments during a flu conference for about 200 education leaders and school emergency specialists to focus on preparations for a flu pandemic that could result in widespread student absences and force school closures.”

http://tinyurl.com/sdej6

Timber – at 12:39

Note of Appreciation to All Posters:

   Thank you for placing the country name prominently in the header, as Klatu did at 09:12. Some of us have a hard time determining the geographic region from just the name of a city. Nepal can look like Thailand or Indonesia, Italy like Spain or even Latin America.

   You have my appreciation for your effort to let me know the country right up front…

     Thanks!
tjclaw1 – at 13:11

ok, so Italy is culling for low path H5N1, but we’re not concerned about the “North American” H5N1?

anon_22 – at 13:46

AnnieB – at 01:38

(USA) Stopping Killer Flu Requires Good Science, Good Government, Barton Says

Are you sure this is current news? Cos the Assessing the National Pandemic Flu Preparedness Plan hearing was held on November 8, 2005.

Grace RN – at 13:54

Yhere’s a huge differnce between preparing for avian H5N1 and an human influenza pandemic regardless of the flu organism that is causing the pandemic (altho the most likely candidate for the job at this time is H5N1).

I’d be happier to see MSM etc address this properly.

DennisCat 14:00

In case you missed it (I did), The Jakarta Post is now back on line.

http://www.thejakartapost.com/headlines.asp

AnnieBat 14:13

Hi folks - some questions to answer from above.

Cottontop at 05:48 - being in the country that is first to see the sun each day (NZ) I sometimes feel like I am doing the ‘nightwatch’ alone on the Wiki. It does also mean that I am probably the only one picking up the stories as they appear on NewsNow and other such links ;-) (I can tell you that I get confused with the dates as well as it is 0800 2 Nov here as I write this …)

Floridian Doc and anon_22 at 13:46 This story came through on the NewsNow link (and is still there) and, as you say, there is no date on the actual article … Looking at the link now, it has 11082005 on it .. definitely an old story. However, we could use it as a baseline for progress … ;-)

Have a good day folks - off out to enjoy some sunshine

AnnieBat 14:16

tjclaw1 at 13:11 - my thoughts exactly when I read the article - if it is low path why cull? If culling is required for low path then why not all low path? Any suggestions anyone??

tjclaw1 – at 14:24

Also, isn’t even low path H5N1 supposed to be reported to the OIE? I see nothing there. http://tinyurl.com/8phhe

Maybe the mandatory reporting applies to everybody else and the US is “exempt?”

DennisCat 14:25

German cat dies of bird flu, virus spreads

“PARIS (AFP): Bird flu fears have heightened in Europe after a cat died of the disease in Germany, the first time the virus has been found in a mammal on the continent. The German announcement on Tuesday was the latest worrying development as bird flu sweeps past hastily erected protective measures in large parts of the world.

The dead cat was found on the Baltic island of Ruegen, where the highly pathogenic form of H5N1 bird flu was detected earlier this month, said Germany’s national veterinary laboratory, the Friedrich Loeffler Institute…

Then, late Tuesday, the ‘French agriculture ministry confirmed another case of H5N1 in a wild swan in the eastern Ain department, bringing to 18 the total number of wild swans and ducks known to be infected with the deadly flu strain.

Sweden for the first time identified ducks infected with an unidentified strain of bird flu, feared to be the H5N1 strain.

Elsewhere, H5N1 was detected for the first time in Bosnia, the southern German state of Bavaria and on a poultry farm in southwestern Russia where 103,000 birds were reported to have died in a week”

http://tinyurl.com/ykkyx6

Homesteader – at 14:31

DennisC at 14:25

That sounds like last years news.

Pixie – at 14:31

AnnieB - at 14:16

Well, we here in the U.S. are bf free and intend to stay that way. We have recently redifined low path as “not bf” and that will help us to remain “bf free.” (Thus, again, policy trumps science).

I think what they are saying in the U.S. by their recent actions is that they are betting that human cases will not arise from the low path being discovered in (several? many? bunches?) of states here. They’re also betting that our poultry industry has enough bio-hazard security to keep out that low path threat too.

That’s the bet they’ve apparently made, and they could be wrong. But, they’ve made that decision over one that would lead to repeated headline reports in the media here of “bird flu” being found locally and all the fuss and worry that would make (see the story of the UK swan, as an example of what they are worried about).

IMHO, they’re making a bet, that’s all. Let’s hope that bet works out for them. And let’s hope the same kind of bet won’t be made when pandemic human cases do arise. Hopefully the same people won’t be involved in making that decision. ;-)

DennisCat 14:38

Homesteader – at 14:31 - last year’s news

Thanks for catching that-

Yes, you are right-It sounds about like last year’s news but it was in todays (tomorrows? Nov 2) Jakarta Post.

I just checked -here is the dead German cat story from 28 February 2006 by the BBC

http://tinyurl.com/ob66y

I guess that means that the Jakarta Posts has been “off the air” for a week or so and still doesn’t have it all back together yet.

FrenchieGirlat 15:10

ITALY - ok, I’m home now, undisturbed, and I’ll have a go at extracting some info. It might not be exact, as I am not an Italian speaker/reader. So I’m using my French, Spanish and some left-over Latin.

Corriere della Serra - a serious newspaper - http://tinyurl.com/yxubt9 - I’ll post the Italian story in the Lookout Post for Southern and Southwest Europe, if anyone wants to give it a better try than I.

It’s the first case in Italy after the summer break. Previously in February and the spring, the provinces of Sicilia, Puglia and Calabria had cases.

The present case is low path. The fact that it has happened at the time of the great migration and in wetlands does not make for optimism. This because most certainly, the 8,500 birds seem to have been touched (… not too sure here). They are creating a protection zone inside where they will cull (all?) birds. The infection was transmitted in only a few days. Probably the virus arrived with the first arriving migrating birds.

There are 14 big raising farms in the province. In February, a sentinel bird had been found positive near the Laguna of Orbettello, but since then the virus had avoided the poultry farms.

Remark: they keep saying it’s low path, but refer to the spring infections as high path…

DennisCat 15:59

This is in today’s Bloomberg news- I am not sure if this is already known to “us”.

Indonesia

3 More Suspected Patients In Hospital Bandung

Doctors in Indonesia, the country with the most H5N1 fatalities, are testing three more people for the virus. A 3- year-old girl and her 14-year-old brother are being treated in an isolation ward at Hasan Sadikin Hospital in the West Java city of Bandung, said Hadi Yusuf, a doctor at the hospital.

The siblings from the Banjarnegara district had contact with diseased poultry, Yusuf said. A 62-year-old man from Bandung is also suffering from avian-flu-like symptoms, he said

http://tinyurl.com/w2cke

Klatu – at 17:43

DennisC – at 15:59 This is in today’s Bloomberg news- I am not sure if this is already known to “us”. Indonesia 3 More Suspected Patients In Hospital Bandung

The siblings from the Banjarnegara district had contact with diseased poultry, Yusuf said. A 62-year-old man from Bandung is also suffering from avian-flu-like symptoms, he said

http://tinyurl.com/w2cke


My interpretation from one of the Indonesian translations suggested the 62-year-old did not have breathing problems or didn’t display any yet.

Klatu – at 17:45

H5N1 Qinghai Fujian Recombination in China

Recombinomics Commentary

November 1, 2006 (excerpts)

“The recent paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences describes the widespread detection of the Fujian strain of H5N1 in China. The spread in China was clear from earlier sequences from fatal human infections in late 2005 and early 2006 as well as isolates from Laos and Malaysia followed by sequences made public from wild birds in Hong Kong.

 However, analysis of the other sequences indicate widespread acquisition of regions of identity with the Qinghai strain (see identities here), indicating the H5N1 was evolving via recombination, and the Qinghai strain was one of the contributing parents, in the vast majority of the Fujian isolates.

The widespread recombination and exchange of portions of genes highlight the need for a robust database, including both high and low path H5N1 from wild birds.

‘’‘Although the current sequence database has grown dramatically in recent weeks because of complete sequences from Indonesia, Qinghai sequences from the Capua lab via the NIAID influenza sequencing project, and China sequences from the Beijing Genome Institute, many holes in the database remain.

 In addition, the vast majority of the Qinghai sequences from Europe have not been released.  Although Weybridge presented phylogenetic trees on approximately 80 isolates, only 6 have been made public even though some samples were collected over a year ago.  

Similarly, only 4 of the 8 genes from H5 isolates in Canada have been released from the samples collected in August 2005. No sequences from this year isolated by the United State or Canada have been released.’‘’

In addition, 2005 and 2006 bird isolates collected in China have also been withheld including a large series from Qinghai Lake in the summer of 2005 as well as the many outbreaks in Chain reported in 2005 and 2006. A description of these isolates indicates many are also the Fujian strain, but additional strains, which likely include the Qinghai strain have also been described.

The latest data show that H5N1 continues to rapidly evolve and a full dataset is required to address both the evolution of H5N1 as well as match failures in Indonesia. An increased surveillance ands release of hoarded sequences is long overdue.”

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/11010601/H5N1_Fujian_Qinghai.html

Jane – at 19:26

The Wall Street Journal has an article with the headline “Bird Flu Efforts Are Criticized” but I’m not a subscriber. Googling didn’t get me anywhere. The headline looks promising-has anyone read the article?

Klatu – at 19:38

Jane, will this help?


Flu Roundup: China`s dirty secret…tip of the iceberg.

 Nov 1, 2006, 23:08 GMT

LONDON, England (UPI) — “In an apparent failure to learn from the lessons of the 2003 SARS epidemic, the Chinese government has been holding back vital information relating to the emergence of a new strain of avian influenza, the World Health Organization said Wednesday.

Over the past year tests conducted across China have revealed the emergence of a new dominant strain of avian influenza, called H5N1 Fujian-like. Despite the fact that 95 percent of virus samples collected in China between April and June of this year transpired to be H5N1 Fujian-like, the Chinese Agriculture Ministry has yet to provide the WHO with samples of the new virus, severely hampering the world body`s ability to fight the disease.

In addition to becoming rampant in China`s poultry, H5N1 Fujian-like has also been spotted in poultry flocks in Hong Kong, Laos, Malaysia and Thailand, and has caused some human cases of avian influenza in China.

‘’‘Julie Hall, an infectious-disease expert at the WHO`s Beijing office, told the International Herald Tribune: ‘There`s a stark contrast between what we`re hearing from the researchers and what the Ministry of Agriculture says. Unless the ministry tells us what`s going on and shares viruses on a regular basis, we will be doing diagnostics on strains that are old.’

According to Hall, the Agriculture Ministry last provided the WHO with virus samples from poultry in 2004 — a shocking lack of consideration for the global battle to prevent an avian-influenza pandemic, as the best source of information in a disease stemming from poultry is the birds themselves.

‘This is a new disease. Nobody knows how to tackle it, nobody in the world has all the answers. But if they share … then we will all gain from that,’ the International Herald Tribune quoted Hall as saying.

‘The ministry needs to tell us just how many substrains are circulating in China and whether some strains are dominant or becoming more dominant.’

China`s reticence in sharing samples of the emerging strain may just be the tip of the iceberg,…

(excerpts)

http://tinyurl.com/yl4jv4

Dennis in Colorado – at 20:02

Klatu’s link did not work for me, but I did find the article at UPI’s own website:
http://www.upi.com/ConsumerHealthDaily/view.php?StoryID=20061101-031051-2882r

Klatu – at 20:07

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, Microbiology

Emergence and predominance of an H5N1 influenza variant in China

( influenza A | molecular epidemiology | virus evolution )

G. J. D. Smith , X. H. Fan , J. Wang , K. S. Li , K. Qin , J. X. Zhang , D. Vijaykrishna , C. L. Cheung , K. Huang , J. M. Rayner , J. S. M. Peiris , H. Chen , R. G. Webster , and Y. Guan

State Key Laboratory of Emerging Infectious Diseases, Department of Microbiology, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong Kong, 21 Sassoon Road, Pokfulam, Hong Kong Special Administration Region, China; and Virology Division, Department of Infectious Diseases, St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital, Memphis, TN 38105

Contributed by R. G. Webster, September 20, 2006

“The development of highly pathogenic avian H5N1 influenza viruses in poultry in Eurasia accompanied with the increase in human infection in 2006 suggests that the virus has not been effectively contained and that the pandemic threat persists. “

Updated virological and epidemiological findings from our market surveillance in southern China demonstrate that H5N1 influenza viruses continued to be panzootic in different types of poultry. Genetic and antigenic analyses revealed the emergence and predominance of a previously uncharacterized H5N1 virus sublineage (Fujian-like) in poultry since late 2005.

Viruses from this sublineage gradually replaced those multiple regional distinct sublineages and caused recent human infection in China. These viruses have already transmitted to Hong Kong, Laos, Malaysia, and Thailand, resulting in a new transmission and outbreak wave in Southeast Asia.

Serological studies suggest that H5N1 seroconversion in market poultry is low and that vaccination may have facilitated the selection of the Fujian-like sublineage. The predominance of this virus over a large geographical region within a short period directly challenges current disease control measures.”

http://tinyurl.com/ymujcs

Klatu – at 20:13

Encyclopedia Of Virology, Vols 1, 2 & 3

R. G. Webster & A. Granoff, Eds

Academic Press Ltd (1994)

“At more than 2,000 pages and with contributions from over 270 authors, this text aims to provide a reference source for the full range of viruses.”

http://tinyurl.com/yag8tg

http://www.stjude.org/faculty/0,2512,407_2030_3957,00.html

witness – at 20:33

I think this qualifies to be posted here.Anytime I see “mystery and bleeding” I pay attention.

Mystery Illness ‘could be Herpes Encephalitis’ Dubai:Health authorities are investigating the death of a two-year-old boy who died two days after he was admitted for high fever ,unconsciousness and bleeding from the nose.

The toddler died on Tuesday after he was admitted to Al Qasimi Hospital on Sunday, according to

 the distressed father,who was later admitted to the hospital along with his 8-year old daughter for similar symptoms. 

“I can 100 per cent say that it is not haemorrhagic fever, dengue or Japanese encephalitis,” explaining that mosquitoes that carried these diseases were not found in the UAE.”11–2−06 www.gulfnews.com

mountainlady – at 21:51

This sounds like a step in the right direction, for ALL kinds of possible contamination:

“Flat keyboard ‘could reduce MRSA’

A hospital has developed a computer keyboard which it says could cut cases of the MRSA superbug by 10%.

Research shows as many as 25% of keyboards carry MRSA - one of a number of hospital-acquired infections which kill 5,000 people each year in the UK.

Plastic keyboard covers are often used but these can be hard to clean.

The University College London Hospitals NHS Trust keyboard is flat and so easy to clean - and is coated in silicon to help ward off bacteria.

The trust is starting to install them and if they prove successful the rest of the NHS may follow. “

More found here.

I’m hoping that shows up here in the US very very soon!

Monotreme – at 21:52

Klatu – at 19:38

Comment

I have begun to have an enormous amount of respect for Dr. Julie Hall of the WHO. She is showing great courage in taking on the Chinese government in this way. And make no mistake about it, she is taking on the entire Chinese government, including President Hu. These problems with Ministry of Agriculture are long-standing. It is impossible that high-ranking members of the communist party don’t know what’s goint on. They know. They hide.

Conspiracy thread coming up.

mountainlady – at 21:53

Oops, my formatting left something to be desired. Sorry about that.

Monotreme – at 21:56

Navaho Nation, USA

Navajo Nation, VA to conduct pandemic trial

The Navajo Nation and the Veterans Affairs Medical Center in Albuquerque will use this year’s flu season to experiment with how to handle a flu, possibly bird flu, pandemic.

“If there were an emergency, this process that we’re setting up would begin, and we would be prepared to begin these vaccinations,” said Patricia Olson, assistant to the director of Navajo Indian Area Health Service based in St. Michaels, Ariz.

The Navajo Nation’s efforts don’t include Albuquerque, but it plans to inoculate at least 32,000 people in one day, Nov. 9, working with three counties.

[snip]

For their two-day drive-through clinic, patients will be asked to park in a cordoned-off parking lot normally used by staff.

“This is more likely to be the place where we’d have them come though in the event of a pandemic flu,” Armstrong said.

The Navajo Nation and VA hospital and clinics are offering flu shots outside of the pandemic emergency exercises, as well.

http://tinyurl.com/yb8u5p

mountainlady – at 22:04

Another oops, that story at 21:51 was from the UK.

Okieman – at 22:08

Klatu – at 19:38 and Monotreme – at 21:52,

Is it biological warfare if you work to protect your own population, while allowing other nations to flounder in ignorance, which ultimately kills millions of their citizens? Passive warfare? Is that an oxymoron?

China is playing a dangerous game.

cactus – at 22:10
  Those Navajos are very ambitious. Their reservation is larger than many states back East.

  I wonder how they plan to get the folks who live back of beyond to the 3 clinics?I would think that a lot more than 3 would be neded.Off the top of my head ,I can name at least 10 IHS clinics and hospitals on the Big Res.

  Now, that might be a good place to SIP, way back in the Res, dirt roads, little population. Of course, the current residents might object to a bunch of belgona ( white folk)moving in.
Jane – at 22:13

Klatu, I didn’t expect another article about WHO and China. I expected something about the US plans and lack of communication. Did the WSJ really write about WHO under that title, “Bird Flu Efforts Are Criticized”? sigh.

treyfish – at 22:26

Yes China is and we are losing!Go Julie!!BTW Didnt see it here yet ,or any where else.Here is who re[port to promed on the turkey outbreak of last winter.What the hell took so long?http://tinyurl.com/yln7t 20061101.3130 Published Date 01-NOV-2006 Subject PRO/AH> Avian influenza, human (171): WHO, Turkey

AVIAN INFLUENZA, HUMAN (171): WHO, TURKEY


A ProMED-mail post <http://www.promedmail.org> ProMED-mail is a program of the International Society for Infectious Diseases <http://www.isid.org>

Date: Tue 31 Oct 2006 From: ProMED-mail <promed@promedmail.org> Source: CIDRAP News [edited] <http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/avianflu/news/oct3106turkey.html>

WHO: H5N1 cases in Turkey targeted children, youth


A recent World Health Organization (WHO) report on 10 of the 12 confirmed H5N1 avian influenza cases that occurred in Turkey last winter adds to evidence that children and youth may be particularly susceptible to the infection. The disease struck only children younger than 16, even though their parents had probably been exposed to the same probable source of infection, infected poultry, according to the 27 Oct 2006 issue of WHO’s Weekly Epidemiological Record [see: WHO bulletin with report on H5N1 cases in Turkey <http://www.who.int/wer/2006/wer8143.pdf> and ProMED-mail post: Avian influenza, human (161): age-related severity 20061008.2888].

“To some extent, this reflects the same age distribution observed globally, where 50.5 percent of cases occurred among people aged <20 years, and it suggests that age-related factors may influence susceptibility to the disease,” the report states. Of the 4 case-patients described in the report who died, all were teenagers, while all the survivors were younger children, aged 3 to 9 years. “This reflects closely the global situation where the highest case-fatality rate (73 percent) has been observed in the 10–19-year age group,” the article says.

Turkey was the 1st country outside Southeast Asia to have human cases. The WHO report discusses 10 cases that occurred in the eastern provinces of Van and Agri in late December 2005 and January 2006 and were investigated by WHO epidemiologists. The 2 other confirmed cases in Turkey were in other provinces, according to Mary K. Kindhauser, a WHO spokeswoman in Geneva. A total of 21 human H5N1 cases had been reported in January 2006 on the basis of tests in a Turkish laboratory. But the WHO recognized only 12 cases that were confirmed by a reference laboratory in the United Kingdom.

At the time of the outbreak, a WHO official reported that 2 Turkish boys had asymptomatic H5N1 infections. But those 2 cases were among the 9 that were never confirmed by the UK lab, Kindhauser told CIDRAP News by e-mail today [31 Oct 2006]. The 10 cases covered in the report included 3 family clusters, one involving 3 cases and 2 involving 2 each. But investigators concluded that person-to-person transmission in the families was unlikely, because in each family, the members fell ill within about a 2-day period, indicating they all contracted the virus from a common environmental source.

Although all 3 family clusters occurred near one another and within a 2-week period, “field investigations provided no evidence of human-to-human transmission between households,” the report says. The families had had no interactions, and the children attended different schools. Investigation indicated that close exposure to infected poultry was the primary risk factor for infection, the WHO says. All the patients had been exposed to backyard poultry, and at least 5 were known to have had contact with sick or dead poultry. The 3 families that had multiple cases had been sheltering their poultry indoors in late December 2005 because of severe cold. Two patients had pet pigeons, but the birds’ possible role could not be assessed because no samples were collected from pigeons in the area, the report says.

The article notes that 135 people in the 2 provinces had suspected cases of H5N1 and were hospitalized and treated with oseltamivir at the time, but testing ruled out all the cases.

References


(1) 30 Jun 2006, WHO bulletin with report on general epidemiology of H5N1 cases <http://www.who.int/wer/wer8126.pdf>.

(2) 30 Jan 2006, WHO situation update on Turkish cases <http://www.who.int/csr/don/2006_01_30/en/index.html>.

ProMED-mail <promed@promedmail.org>

[ProMED-mail acknowledges the receipt of similar data analyses from Joseph P. Dudley, Ph.D. <jdudley@eaicorp.com> and thanks him for alerting us to the content of this WHO report. - Mod.CP]

[see also: Avian influenza, human (169):

Pixie – at 22:28

WHO blasts Beijing over bird flu

CNN.com / 0250 GMT (1050 HKT), November 1, 2006 / http://tinyurl.com/yxacg9

BEIJING, China (AP) — The World Health Organization said its efforts to track the spread of bird flu have been complicated by the failure of China’s Agriculture Ministry to share samples of a newly discovered strain of the virus.

Scientific research released this week said that the new strain — called H5N1 Fujian-like — had spread widely over the past year, being found in almost all poultry outbreaks and some human cases in China and now becoming prevalent in Hong Kong, Laos, Malaysia, and Thailand.

Despite that prevalence, the Agriculture Ministry has not given the WHO any samples of the new strain, said Julie Hall, an infectious disease expert at the WHO’s Beijing office.

“There’s a stark contrast between what we’re hearing from the researchers and what the Ministry of Agriculture says,” Hall said in a telephone interview. “Unless the ministry tell us what’s going on and shares viruses on a regular basis, we will be doing diagnostics on strains that are old.”

While new strains of viruses emerge regularly, health experts need to know when one becomes dominant in order to develop methods to detect and fight the disease, said Hall.

The ministry’s reluctance has been an ongoing source of aggravation at the WHO. International health experts have repeatedly complained about Chinese foot-dragging in cooperating on investigating emerging diseases like bird flu and the SARS pneumonia.

Telephones at the Agriculture Ministry were not answered on Wednesday and it did not immediately respond to faxed questions.

Some countries are slow to share genetic information or samples of viruses because they fear they will be pushed aside in the global race to produce a lucrative vaccine.

“This is a new disease. Nobody knows how to tackle it, nobody in the world has all the answers,” Hall said. “But if they share … then we will all gain from that.”

She said the ministry has not shared bird flu virus samples from poultry since 2004 — a key step in developing diagnostic tools and vaccines.

The study by Chinese and American scientists released this week found that one out of every 30 geese and one out of every 30 ducks in live markets tested positive for H5N1 in six southern Chinese provinces during yearlong surveillance, which began in June 2005.

In that same period, however, the ministry reported only three outbreaks in those same provinces, Hall said.

The study was conducted in Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi, Guizhou, Yunnan and Hunan, densely populated provinces where people live in close proximity to ducks, pigs and other farm animals, making the area a common breeding ground for flu viruses.

Out of 108 virus samples taken from infected poultry between April and June of this year, 103 — or 95 percent — had the Fujian-like strain, according to the results of the study reported in Tuesday’s issue of Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The H5N1 flu has devastated poultry in China and several other southeast Asian countries and also has claimed more than 150 human lives. Most of the people affected lived close to flocks of chickens or other poultry.

Public health authorities fear that the virus will mutate into a form that can spread easily among people, raising the potential for a worldwide pandemic that could kill millions.

treyfish – at 22:30

i HOPE I DIDNT DO THAT !SORRY IF I DID!

sidescroll – at 22:34
Pixie – at 22:40

Comment: More older news being brought to our attention now via mainstream media.

Bird Flu-Infected Dog Suggests Human Risk From Pets, Study Says

By Jason Gale - Bloomberg / Nov. 2, 2006 / http://tinyurl.com/tk6eb

Bird flu infected organs of a dog in Thailand before killing the animal, highlighting the potential for pets to contract the lethal virus and potentially spread it to humans, researchers in the country said.

The dog probably picked up the H5N1 avian influenza strain from infected duck carcasses in the central Thai province of Suphanburi two years ago, the researchers said in a study published in this month’s Emerging Infectious Diseases journal. Five days after feeding on the carcasses, the dog developed high fever, panting and lethargy, and died a day later.

The virus was found in the dog’s lung, liver, kidney and urine, providing more evidence of the ability of H5N1 to cross the species to infect mammals, the study said. Disease trackers are monitoring for signs the virus is changing into a form more dangerous to people after it killed at least 74 people this year, as many as reported in the previous two years combined.

`Despite the low probability of H5N1 infection in domestic animals, the possibility of humans acquiring H5N1 infection from direct contact with infected cats and dogs warrants concern and highlights the need for monitoring domestic animals during H5N1 outbreaks in the future,’‘ said the authors, including Thaweesak Songserm from Kasetsart University and Alongkorn Amonsin from Chulalongkorn University.

<snip>

Felines, including domestic cats, are at risk of infection from H5N1 if they prey on birds, studies published in March by researchers at two Thai universities and a government research center showed. A 2005 study showed H5N1 was probably transmitted between tigers in Thailand and German officials in March confirmed an infection in a stone marten, a type of weasel.

Tests on the infected dog in Thailand showed it had a variant of H5N1 consistent with the strain circulating in the country at that time. Virus particles collected from the dog showed no sign of adaptation, the study in Emerging Infectious Diseases said.

The study is the first report of H5N1-related systemic disease in a domestic dog infected during the second wave of outbreaks in Thailand that occurred during October 2004, the authors said.

02 November 2006

DennisCat 00:04

CDC PROCURES AVIAN FLU VACCINE AMID NEW PANDEMIC WARNINGS 2006–11–02 12:12:28

    Taipei, Nov. 2 (CNA) The Center for Disease Control (CDC) has ordered 190,000 doses of avian influenza vaccine to enhance Taiwan’s flu-fighting capability amid renewed pandemic warnings, a senior official said Thursday.

http://tinyurl.com/tmqx3

DennisCat 00:09

link for the full article is on this page (as a pop up);

http://tinyurl.com/y6rexw

“The vaccine is 70 percent to 80 percent effective and has a shelf life of between six months and two years, Chou said.

 Nevertheless, Chou added that although the vaccine has been proven safe and effective in preventing avian influenza in humans in initial clinical tests, it has not yet been approved for commercial sale. …

the vaccine will not be available to ordinary people. ….

The vaccine will be ready for use if an avian flu outbreak occurs this winter…

 If each medical professional gets two doses of the vaccine, Chou said, the stockpile will be enough to cover 90,000 individuals, or one-third of the country’s health care personnel.

Moreover, Chou said, the CDC has also kept in stock enough doses of Tamiflu — an oral anti-viral drug for treatment of influenza — for 2.3 million people, or 10 percent of Taiwan’s population in accordance with the recommendation of the World Health Organization.

SIDESCROLL NEEDS FIXING – at 00:11
SIDESCROLL ALERT – at 00:17

I guess we shd be into Nov 2 news thread anyway in a few minutes??

gharris – at 00:31

that was me above

AnnieBat 00:45

Hi team

I am attempting to create the News Summary then I will start the new thread. Going a bit cross eyed with the side-scroll though ;-)

message for treyfish – at 02:56

treyfish, and anyone else,

When copying from Promed, make sure you delete their line of asterisks, cos that will cause massive sidescroll every time. Thanks!

anon_22

treyfish – at 06:10

SORRY,SORRY,!ALSO ANON22,NO OFFENSE meant towards you or any other.Getting frustrated with the lack of chinese openness.I’m off to work.SAVE THE WORLD OR GET IT READY.

anon_22 – at 06:14

treyfish – at 06:10,

No need to apologize, but I just wanted you to know about the asterisks, cos they are d****d hard to find when you are trying to fix sidescroll. But ProMed is a good source, so I figure its worth it. :-)

Getting frustrated with the lack of chinese openness.

Join the club, so what else is new? Sorry to be cynical.

SAVE THE WORLD OR GET IT READY.

I figure that’s what we do, or try to, anyway.

:-)

anon_22 – at 06:18
Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.NewsReportsForNovember1
Page last modified on November 02, 2006, at 06:18 AM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / What I Am Learning from Freak October Storm

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: What I Am Learning from Freak October Storm

18 October 2006

MissBlissat 11:32

I live outside of Buffalo NY and last week Thursday we lost power due to a freak snow storm. The snow was so heavy on trees that hadn’t lost their leaves yet that all the tree limbs broke, lines came down roofs caved in, it looks like a war zone. We are still without power, all the trees on my property are gone, no cable, no phone. This is the first time I have had internet access in a week! (talk about withdrawls) They are slowly restoring electricity, but our area was hardest hit and last to come on line. I was very excited to see power at work! I have learned alot. First thing I have learned is to be grateful for what I had in my preps, a propane stove, lots of flashlights, fresh water (there was a ban on drinking water, because the water treatment plants lost electricity) but I hadn’t addressed my electrical needs and there were no generators to be had for a 500 mile radius! My chief concern wasn’t the computer or refrigerator but our sump pump. With the snow melting and the rain that has followed, our basement was in danger of flooding, luckily my friend had an inverter that he lent us and we have remained dry, but the majority of folks in western NY have flooded basements. And D cell batteries…there were NOT enough of those around here! What I miss the most is the ability to bake something and the news, not local news from the radio but national news, I didn’t know there was an earthquake in Hawaii! I feel very secluded and now that I am back online at work I have been devouring news and information that I have missed in the past week. The people here for the most part have been generous and kind. My level of frustration is growing, but only because it seems that everyone else has power except us. The boys are now at their grandmothers, who has power and heat and cartoon network, but before they left, we had played Uno, eaten ice cream for dinner , grilled up meat on the grill and talked a whole lot. My 11 year old said “Mom, you always say that things happen for a reason, why did this happen?” He made me think, I think that it brought us closer, made us grateful for what we did have and made us aware of what we needed to prep for any future disasters be it snow storms or bird flu. So I am still waiting for those power crews to come by, but with this board and all I learned from it, my has been made just a little bit easier.

Leo7 – at 11:41

MissBliss:

You’ve got friends from the hurricane zone! Except we sweat while you’re shivering. The way the power comes back on—well—it tests you. Stay calm, thank the power crews, offer them anything you have access to hot chocolate etc it will make you feel better. I came back after seven days without power amazed the world went on without us. Being prepared, gives you a comfort zone. Glad you’re able to visit for a while and share your observations, hope tonight’s the night you get the electricity back in your life!

Linda – at 11:42

THANK YOU!!!!!!! This is the kind of commenting I Love. As a Mom of a 12,7,5 year olds I tend to think preps are food and crayons I have to get after my husband about the generator and stock up on Batteries and garage stuff. Thank you for your post.

diana – at 13:36

Fema is already getting critiqued. Even the usual efficient removal of snow has been hampered. They say it won’t be better until next week.Hopefully they won’t get clobbered again.

bgw in MT – at 16:58

Miss Bliss, every message that we get like this. that shows the usefullness of preps in “real” life, helps persuade those who are hesitating about beginning to prepare to get busy. Thanks!

Bird Guano – at 17:30

Now picture the same scenario during a pandemic with no power crews or materials available for a fix.

Your kids are right.

It did happen for a reason.

You just had a “real life test” and now know where the holes are in your preparations.

23 October 2006

MissBlissat 09:42

Thanks for your kind words…power is back up and running. It was over a week without power. What surprised me most was the temperments of folks this weekend. Now that the power hase been restored, people were in a hurry to restock friges, catch up on halloween preparations, clean up their yards and get back to life as “normal”. But it was every “man” for himself, tempers were short, everyone had had just about enough. It isn’t normal, and it won’t be normal for awhile. It will be weeks or months before all the clean up has happened (just hope they can clean it up before any more snow flies) I think that it is something that we need to be aware of when bird flu has finally run it’s course, as much as we want it, life will not be the same.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 10:08

Cortosil or Cortisol or whatever it is….you know the ad about weight loss and stress? That ad that’s a stress-maker all on it’s own? It’s the flight or fight trigger.

I remember reading a report about the people in Red Cross shelters after the big east coast snow storm in the 90′s that paralyzed the entire east coast of the USA and Canada, and it said that everyone’s cortisol levels were elevated, but the longer they stayed in shelters or housed with family they weren’t used to being around, the higher the levels rose, meaning the more stressed they were (well, duh…).

But what struck me the most was that the people had extremely high levels even 6 months later!!! So just ‘cause the emergency is over, in no way means people get back to normal anytime soon. And the high levels mean they’re not as afraid to pick fights—Cortisol IS the flight or FIGHT trigger.

Green Mom – at 11:03

I think that snowstorm was the one where dh and I were trapped in our house with two toddlers for two weeks without power. I don’t think my cortisol levels ever went back down :−0

Urdar-Norge – at 12:15

get vind-up a world radio. BBC international broadcast are the best way to feel “conected” with the globe :)

crfullmoon – at 12:25

(“I don’t think my cortisol levels ever went back down” Aha! They’re supposed to go back down?)

(With my local authorities wasting the past 12 months not telling the public how to prepare their households to cope without fed/state/mutual help for a whole Pandemic Influenza Year, and only about to start telling them to Wash their Hands and Volunteer to Show Up during a Pandemic , I’m supposed to feel safe and let my cortisol levels go back down???)

=:-/

One day at a time, MissBliss, (and, I hope people will get better prepared; lotta Winter yet).

blackbird – at 12:29

Miss B - would you say more about the water situation?

You said there was a ban on drinking water. Was it a ‘boil water for drinking’ order? Without power, many/most would be unable to boil water. What did others (the non-prepped) do?

Did you use tap water for some things, and stored water for drinking and cooking? Or stored water for everything?

(Another reason to keep stored water handy NOW instead of waiting “till it is closer.”)

Thanks for sharing your experience.

Average Concerned Mom – at 13:16

Miss Bliss — I also wanted to ask you more about the water. How long was the boil water alert for?

(crfullmoon — the stuff you put in parentheses is the best stuff of all!) (-:

Average Concerned Mom – at 13:26

for those who want to read a little more — looks like it was QUITE a storm!

http://www.buffalonews.com/editorial/20061017/1066405.asp

and earlier

http://www.buffalonews.com/editorial/20061014/1041918.asp

The second article mentiones the “boil water” alert and the fact that some local community’s water tanks hold a “3 day supply” of water. Interesting, I just find myself perking up and making note of all sorts of information these days!

Mstrbubbie – at 15:06

Miss Bliss, Like Leo7 said you have friends down on the coast where katrina hit.Afterthe third day with no power it started to gat scary for us.all the food in the fridge had to be cooked or eaten right away.Then after day 4 all the food we had frozen in the deep freeze had to be cooked or eaten or just tossed away.Our gas grille was going 24/7 to try an extent the life of some of our meats and fish.We got Ice from the army and red cross but ice just keeps things cool.Our water was down for 10 days with an order to boil before useing.But as you might remember gasoline was in short supply so driving to the drop off points got scary too.So what we dii was get a neighbors truck went to everyones house see what they needed and made one trip for everyone and saved on the gas.I am gald to hear you guys made it ok.I leanred a major lesson we now store lots of gasoline in our back shed 100 ft from the house and will ventilated and we also now have 2 6000 watt genees among other things.I will try to never get in that bad situtation again I have 4 small children and a great wife to try and protect.We learned so much from that storm.And yes we see thing alot differently now.Life has changed for us we are better prepared.Hang tough your rough season (winter) has just started.Remember we will all be here for you.May God bless you and your family

24 October 2006

anonymous – at 11:00

blackbird – at 12:29 Miss B - would you say more about the water situation?

Average Concerned Mom – at 13:16 Miss Bliss — I also wanted to ask you more about the water. How long was the boil water alert for?

We had to boil water for a full 4 minutes before use. They told us not to use water to wash dishes because the bacteria could linger on the dishes. I boiled water on my propane stove for dishes and used bottled water for drinking, brushing teeth and cleaning ourselves. When I couldn’t stand sponge baths anymore, I did take a shower, but didn’t get my face wet, I know I should have been more careful, but a hot shower in the midst of things was something I really needed (no ill consequenses). As for those without power sources, I am not sure what they did to boil water, but the store shelves were void of all things water. I am very thankful that I had quite a water supply at the ready, but I did have to go to the store for my diet coke addiction, one thing I am sure I will have to lose when TSHTF! LOL! The ban lasted 4 days, but the interesting thing was that there were so many reports from different sources as to when you could start using water again that we were all confused. The county would say okay to use the water then the health department would say we never said okay, then the individual cities were posting their own bans, it was very disorganized. But we made it through! The clean up continues, my boys are enjoying watching the huge machines clear the trees and debris from the yards! And school started again (yeah says mom!) Thanks again everyone!

MissBlissat 11:03

sorry that was me, I am at work, still no internet at home!

crfullmoon – at 11:27

(if you had hot water sitting in your heater from before the ban, a little was probably ok, I’d guess?)

25 October 2006

blackbird – at 00:14

Thank you, Miss B. Good information to have.

I hope your internet is restored soon!

29 October 2006

blackbird – at 23:44

Do you have power back, yet, Miss B?

01 November 2006

bump – at 17:24
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Page last modified on November 01, 2006, at 05:24 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Backup Power During Brown Outs

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Backup Power During Brown Outs

17 October 2006

Average Concerned Mom – at 08:19

from Keeping the Grid Up, part 4

Some people have been discussing a way to capture some power in the event that we have rolling brown outs but not complete loss of the power.

DennisC posted some helpful ideas which I will copy here. I am interested in trying this and thought others might have some ideas too; we can capture them here to help others.

Average Concerned Mom – at 08:20

From DennisC — who also refers us to Eccles for more information! (-:

First this is just a “small system” just for a few lights, a computer, radio, that kind of thing. It is not for refrigerators, electric heaters, power tools and the big current type of items. Just a Quick and dirty start.

I will give the Wal-Mart type of items since that is what most people have access to. However, I would just shop locally and see what “deals” I may find. (For example, you sometimes find good deals on inverters in pawnshops).

The key thing is the battery. You will want to be sure it is a “deep cycle” battery. The kinds they use in golf carts or marine electric trolling motors. Auto batteries will “die” after a few dozen deep power drains. You can start with one battery and then connect more in series with them. (I will leave it to Eccles to suggest any optional protective circuits). Wal-Mart has marine batteries. I would just start with which ever one you can afford. The larger the amp-hour rating, the more “power” (OK energy for purists) you can store.

The inverter should be rated for about twice the load you expect to be using. Wal-Mart has a Whistler 800-Watt Power Inverter for about $57. It can put out 800 watts continuous or 1600 peak. You should be able to use it for 500 W with no problems.

For the charger, just use a regular automotive 12V battery charger. The kinds that are “automatic” are the best. They are designed not to over “cook” your battery and you can just leave them on all the time (in case you don’t know when the power will be on). I use the 6-amp Black and Decker “smart battery charger”.

All you do is connect the charger to the battery (red to positive and so on), connect the inverter to the battery (red to positive- see its directions), then plug in the charger. You should now have a back up power system. (I am guess, at a price around 120 to $200).

You now can plug in a few items into the inverter and have power even when the there are “rotating blackouts”. If you want to get fancy you can add a small solar array (like from Real Goods) where the charger is. Or you can even run a jumper cable from a running car to the battery to charge it. (But do your homework first on that).

Hillbilly Bill – at 08:31

One of the most disappointing aspects of arranging for backup power is how expensive it can be to have even a limited amount of power available when your regular electric service is interrupted. What Dennis C has described will work when the normal electric service is intermittent. To have some power stored for long term outages, the best solutions are to store energy in your battery from solar panels or a wind powered generator. This is where you can put a real drain on your bank account. As I stated on the “Grid 4″ thread, all of this has been discussed in great detail on the “Solar etc.” threads.

To make the most of the power you have stored in a deep-cycle battery, power as many things as possible with 12V DC. I bought DC cords for my laptops and also purchased a battery charger (AA, AAA, D, etc.)that can run on DC. I have rechargeable lanterns and a small TV that can also use DC power directly. Use an inverter to convert your DC power to AC only when necessary. There are losses involved in the conversion, plus the inverter draws power to operate at “idle”. The two combined can pull your battery voltage down in short order.

Average Concerned Mom – at 08:38

Thanks HillBilly Bill!

I have briefly followed the “solar etc.” thread but pretty much everything there is outside my pocketbook.

What Dennis C. suggested seemed at least do-able.

Dennis in Colorado – at 08:39

Average Concerned Mom – at 08:20 You can start with one battery and then connect more in series with them.
I submit that you will have more success by connecting those batteries in parallel rather than in series, unless you have an inverter designed to operate on 24 or 36 volts.

Hillbilly Bill – at 08:47

Average Concerned Mom – at 08:38

I wholeheartedly agree with you. For normal outages, and intermittent service, the batterycharger→battery→inverter setup works well. Just remember that what you can power is limited. Also, a small battery charger is all you need for all but the most dire situations.

Average Concerned Mom – at 08:59

just need to power my breadmachine! (-:

Oh, and maybe the video player.

And not at the same time.

But seriously — I’m realizing my idea now is a lot like what everyone else (I mean TPTB) seems to be doing —planning for what you can reasonably afford, not for what you think will be needed. )-:

Sorry for thread drift.

DennisCat 09:09

if you want to extend the idea for times with no grid power, you just add a solar pannel instead of the battery charge. Real Goods has a small 15 watt pannel (though it took me 2 months to get it delivered). The solar pannels run up the cost a lot. But you can get small solar pannels for keeping car batteries charged from a lot of places. They won’t give you a lot of power, but even a single small light in the darkness can work wonders (almost a mystic saying) and it would let you use a radio, a small “RV TV” or DVD player or other small item.

If you have gas for the car, you can jump charge the battery if needed. Fancy people can add one of the quiet Honda generator as a charger. But again, just a simple battery charger will do a lot.

Better to charge a single small battery than to curse the darkness.

RBA – at 09:11

Just wondering … how does one calculate the amount of time a battery will provide sufficient juice to an inverter to run an 8.5 amp (110 volt)device (water pump)? My plan is to plug in our water pump to an inverter connected to 1 or 2 deep cycle batteries. Then as power is available …. or more likely I run my generator for a period of time each day, I can recharge the battery(s).

Hillbilly Bill – at 09:11

Average Concerned Mom – at 08:59

Interestingly enough, the main reason I invested in my alternative energy system was mainly to power my Bread Machine. I couldn’t justify running a generator for 3 hours just to bake a loaf of bread, and using the Bread Machine was the least energy consuming way of baking bread with the exception of doing it somehow over an open wood fire.

Be advised that a modified sine wave inverter can cause electronic devices that run on a timer, such as a Bread Machine, to “count” time incorrectly. I would advise practice beforehand to see if you need to make adjustments in the normal settings. Also, the last 30 minutes of the cycle of my breadmaker, when it is actually baking the bread, REALLY draws a lot of power. A single 12V deep cycle battery may be discharged below an acceptable level (50%) so you should consider purchasing more than one battery and connecting them in paralell. I used ready-made cables from Advance Auto and have had good results with them.

DennisCat 09:24

RBA – at 09:11 to estimate the “power” needed or you can get out

The thing is that energy is conservered. You multiple the time time the power (watts times hours). About 80% or so of what you put in you can get out (that number depends on a lot of things). If you are using a generator or charger you can mutiple the watts (use the amps on your charger multiplied by 12 volts to get the watts or just the wattage from a generator) by the time it is on. That gives you how many watt hours you have stored.

How much you get out is the same. Just look at the wattage your load needs and the time you run it.

Hope that is clear. energey (watts multipled by time) in and energy out (watts multiplied by time). About 80 % or so of what you put in you can get out (some systems are better some or not).

RBA – at 19:21

DennisC – at 09:24 Thanks so much for the info.

So am I correct in the following calculation … if I have two deep cell batteries wired together providing a combined amperage of 600amps, I should be able to run a 120v, 8.5 amp pump motor (1020 watts) around 7.06 hours. (I recognize that I would not want to run the batteries down that much … but theoretically there would be enough amps)

I got this by using the following formulas:

  1. WATTS(1020)/VOLTS(12)= AMPS(85)
  2. then dividing total battery amps(600) by the pumps required amps (85)
  3. Which equals just over 7 hours worth of battery power.

Does that sound right?

HillBilly Bill – at 22:06

RBA – at 19:21

Eccles or Will would be the guys to give you exact calculations, but I see some errors in your thinking. First off, I’m sure your pump will take a much greater amount of power to get going (surge) than the running amperage you are using. Next, there are losses in converting DC to AC and also in the resistance of your wiring. Finally, a deep cycle battery should never be discharged past the 50% level, and you are better off staying on the high side of 70%.

My suggestion, run the pump for a shorter length of time with your genny and at the same time charge up your battery bank for other tasks that are less energy intensive.

Just for a comparison, I have a battery bank of three 115Ah deep cycle batteries. If I run my Bread Machine through a normal cycle that takes 3 hours, my battery bank goes down to about 70%. That Bread Machine only really pulls a lot of power during the last 30 minutes and then the max is 500 watts for about 30 seconds to heat up the element every couple of minutes.

To quote my mentor, the Great Professor Eccles:

“The goes-outa is a lot quicker than the goes-inta”.

DennisCat 22:14

Yes, that is a lot of current so it will really heat up the wires and you will need very heavy guage wire. I don’t know what your system is exactly, but if your pump is above ground you may want to get a 12V pump to keep the amps down and the inverter cost down. I use a Real Goods 12V pump that is designed for solar operation. Again, the system I was talking about was just a simple low wattage thing for just a light load. Pumps and motors are a different problem. They take a LOT of current at start up (they have to store energy in their magnetic fields to get started).

Kim – at 22:18

Question… we have one deep-cycle battery (amp hours unknown), purchased at Walmart (I think) a few years ago. We’ve been using it at our cabin on a fairly regular basis. We’re thinking of adding a second deep-cycle battery connected in parallel. I’ve read that if you’re using more than one battery that they should be purchased at the same time, charged the same, etc. Is this really a big deal, or something that I don’t need to worry about too much? (PS- The battery is used only to run dc lights, a dc ceiling fan, and a small on-demand 12vdc water pump).

HillBilly Bill – at 22:23

Kim – at 22:18

Yes, it really does matter. My advice, bite the bullet and buy two batteries that are exactly the same. Charge them both completely before connecting them in paralell with heavy guage cables. Save the other battery for an emergency backup. A small solar panel would keep it trickle charged and ready to go. Nothing about alternative power is cheap unfortunately.

Kim – at 22:32

Thanks HB for the quick response. Now here’s another (maybe dumb) question… We generally don’t leave much at the cabin for fear it will either get stolen or burned up in a forest fire. The battery is one of the things we lug back and forth. If we left our old “backup” battery inside the cabin on a trickle charger over the winter, would that cause problems? It will definitely get way below freezing in the cabin, but I think we could set the battery and trickle charger where it would get at least some direct sunlight thru an upper window. We’d charge the battery with AC from the generator before we left, but I’m wondering if freezing will do bad things to the battery.

18 October 2006

Fiddlerdave – at 03:24

Freezing doesn’t ruin a charged battery (the acid created by a charged battery prevents it), although I suppose it may not be ideal storage conditions. If it can get some trickle charge, even ocasionally and started out in a charged state, it shouldn’t lose enough charge to freeze. I have left charged batteries on unheated garage shelves (and in cars) for months (with no charging at all), and they seemed fine. Some solar trickle charge would make it last a winter well, but don’t expect too many years out of a battery, they tend to go through that last half quicker than the first half of power capability. If unattended, you may want charger control to prevent overchargingif you hook the solar panel straight to the battery (unless someone here knows the solar panel won’t overcharge - I suppose a small solar panel maximum power output IS a trickle charge!)

Fiddlerdave – at 03:27

Do note inverters, at least cheap ones, draw up to 1 amp whether or not you plug anything into the inverter to use it! Turn the inverter off or disconnect it from the batteries when you are not doing anything with the power.

Average Concerned Mom – at 07:40

Oh, lordy, this is all too complicated. (-: No wonder I am wigging lately. There is just too much to learn. No one thing is hard but all together it is overwhelming. Especially if you haven’t got any money!

I’ve changed my mind (for anyone who cares) about the bread machine. Power goes out, we’re eating gruel. Recipe: 1 cup flour. Add 1/2 liquid. (milk. water. heck, beer.) Mix and eat. See, nothing to learn. (-:

Kim – at 10:32

Fiddlerdave, thanks for the warning on the inverter, but our setup doesn’t use one as everything we use the battery power for is DC. Whilst we probably should have a fuse in there somewhere, the lights, fan and pump all run on DC and are all direct wired (DH put these “ring” type connectors on the ends of each Romex cable, so we just unscrew the wing nuts on the battery terminal, drop the cables on, and screw down) to the battery with 12 ga Romex (the entire cabin is 16 x 20, so no long wiring runs!). Each appliance has it’s own on/off switch so there (should be) no battery drain when things aren’t in use.

Sounds like it may not be worth the hassle (and worry) to leave the *backup* battery at the cabin. Think we’ll just keep it here at home and only lug the 2 new batteries back and forth.

Hillbilly Bill – at 10:46

Kim – at 10:32

I would not leave the battery in the cabin. While it may not freeze, the temperature extremes would definitely shorten the battery life.

RBA – at 19:03

HillBilly Bill – at 22:06 DennisC – at 22:14

Thanks so much for the posts … they were very helpful. After reading your comments and doing some online research I found a highend 12v marine pump that will work for our emergency needs.

Finally sitting down and learning the different electrical formulas was something I have been meaning to do for sometime.

Thanks again!

LauraBat 19:15

ACM - lol! I’m right there with you. Those solar/power threads of Eccles make my eyes glaze over. I’ve learned so much thanks to Eccles, HBB and all - they’ve done a great job explaining it to electricity novices like myself as well as those far more sophisticated.

Will – at 19:38

If you want to read it all in one place, I have a section in my book free here online that walks through it step by step.

Average Concerned Mom – at 20:42

LauraB

I just wish I could barter with someone. Like, I’ll can some meatballs for you if you’ll hook up a marine battery-inverter-transformer-decoder-ring-photon-torpedo thingy for me. Wish I knew someone around here who wante dthat kind of a trade… (-:

KimTat 21:02

Average Concerned Mom – at 20:42

ROTFLMAO

That is so funny, but I know how you feel. I give massages and can write awesome sales letters for barter!

19 October 2006

Average Concerned Mom – at 07:51

Thanks everyone! I actually sat down and learned a lot of stuff last night. My wigging out comments notwithstanding. I can do this. Connect red to to red, I can do that.

Hillbilly Bill – at 08:26

As with (nearly) all of our preps, having some alternative means of power is a good thing for “regular” emergencies as well. Our power went off in the middle of the night recently and as I gleefully turned on some of my emergency lighting gizmos, DW said “I sure hope we can make coffee in the morning.”

I told her not to worry, I had it covered. I was actually disappointed when the power came back on before we got up.

S. Arlington – at 08:54

HBB et al.,

Thanks for all the information — very useful.

I have a quick setup question for you: How do I get power from the battery/inverter to fixtures etc. that are far away? If I have a battery bank in the basement, do you recommend running a heavy duty extension cord from the inverter up to the second floor and then tier off that (i.e., smaller extension cords to different rooms)?

Similarly, how would I get a trickle charge from a solar array mounted on the roof to a battery bank in the basement?

Thanks again.

Minnesota_scientist – at 09:08

My 9 year old daughter and I tried an experiment a couple of years ago for her science project. We bought a trickle charger for about $10, and walked through the alleys in our neighborhood till we found a car battery. (no, it wasn’t still in someone’s car!) She towed it home in the wagon, and we plugged it in in the garage. About a week later, we twisted wires together (red to red, black to black) and had lights. We got about 24 hours out of a 12 volt fluorescent lantern. I’d bet we’d get a week out of LEDs.

Hillbilly Bill – at 09:28

S. Arlington – at 08:54

These are situations that I have dealt with also. The main rule is to keep your 12V wiring as robust and short as possible between the battery bank and the inverter. Once you have AC flowing from your inverter, you can use the setup you are talking about with no problem. I have a 12 guage extension cord running from my inverter in the basement to the kitchen where I will need the power the most.

Your second question is one I struggled with. The longer your run of wiring from the solar panels to your charge controler/battery bank, the more energy you will lose due to the resistance in the wiring. If you can relocate the battery bank closer to the panels, that would be great, but I understand if you can’t. My battery bank really has to be in the basement workroom also. I ran 8 guage wiring down an unused chimmney and across the basement for a total length of 55ft. to get to my setup. Yes, it was expensive buying the wire, and no it wasn’t any fun running it. I suggest you use the same guage I did unless your run of wiring is significantly shorter. You could possibly double up on 12 guage wire if you have some already on hand.

MAV in Colorado – at 21:55

Hillbilly Bill – at 08:26 “ I was actually disappointed when the power came back on before we got up.”

That cracks me up!!! (been there)

S. Arlington – at 08:54 “How do I get power from the battery/inverter to fixtures etc. that are far away?”

I think Eccles and HB are working on a wireless, power recycling system. Should be out soon!

20 October 2006

Hillbilly Bill – at 07:55

You do Professor Eccles a disservice by mentioning my name in the same sentence as his. Countless questions and emails have been answered by my mentor so that I could acchieve this lowly level of proficency.

23 October 2006

Eccles – at 12:07

Sounds like it was all for good cause. Now I can be gone for a few days on other issues, and come back to find that the novices are in good hands, and have not blown themselves up, or anything.

(By the way, I like meatballs, but they made me promise not to install any more photon torpedo launchers. I think it’s a Gun control issue or something).

Hillbilly Bill – at 12:20

Eccles – at 12:07

Glad to have you back PGFME!

DennisCat 12:25

Eccles – at 12:07

Glad to see you are around. No photon torpedo launchers here but since you might get a kick out of it: I am trying to make an infrasound non-lethal weapon deterrent system. If nothing else it might keep the ducks of the pond.

Eccles – at 12:38

DennisC - You need top be a little careful with such a system. Some frequencies can be very damaging. Be sure you know what frequencies you want to operate on, have a good stable frequency reference, and measure the waveforms BEFORE you transduce it. OK?

crfullmoon – at 12:45

Yikes- and “non-lethal” doesn’t mean “non-permanent damage”. article

Spoke too soon, Eccles? ;-) “Now I can be gone for a few days on other issues, and come back to find that the novices are”…

DennisCat 12:59

Eccles – at 12:38

Yes, I am working around 5 to 20Hz (fast rise time) and yes I have a Hameg spectrum anayliser and a Clark Hess power meter. (and this is an easy range for scopes) The transducers are will be placed along my outer perimeter and away from the house. It will be my first line of defense and mostly in a warning mode. I already have my second layer in place- motion detector controled sprinkler system (they sell them under the name scarecrows) but I can add formic acit to the water system there. Those are all non- lethal but it should give an intruder pause for reflection.

OOPs I am letting the thread drift- excuss me, just thought you might enjoy what I was up to.

DennisCat 13:38

crfullmoon – at 12:45 The article is about high intensity directed weapons. The directional items are at higher frequencies and most are ultrasound items since they require short wavelengths. The item I am constructing is more for harassing an interloper and will be working at around 100 watts of acoustical power (think those loud car stereos). I am working on the very long wavelength that is not directional though you can get standing waves if you work at it for say a gate area. I figure a low level warning should suffice for most “visitors” and I hope to be able to superimpose an audible warning as well. But I need to sign off this thread since I am drifting. If you want to talk more we can open a new thread.

Urdar-Norge – at 14:01

this extraordinary situation planning has some paralles with ordinary lifes policy on energy. Norway a country with plentifull of natural resourses like hydropower has been organized to completly run everthing on electricity. Now when we are conected to the European comon market also with eletric power, the reality suddenly kicks in. Using electricity for heating is not a very good idea, its should be reserved for light, machines and electronics. It will take years before all households have an alterntive way of heathing, And we learn the hard way by paying our blood in electric bills.

Now for emergency and camping this is similar, running a oven on baterys dont make much sence… Propane for those who want to invest, Or small camping stoves for multifuel like parafin/ kerosene /lamp oil (whatever your preferd pricerange) will do fine for baking with one of these:

http://www.preparedness.com/camstovdoubo.html

26 October 2006

Will – at 07:24

Urdar, what alternative heating methods are being explored in Norway? Solar would be difficult at such high latitudes, so I’m assuming ground source heat pumps, higher insulation, and biofuels are the likely alternatives.

Oremus – at 12:24

I recommend this if you can afford it; LSER

Oremus – at 12:26

Will – at 07:24

coincidentally my link is shows it in the Netherlands.

30 October 2006

Oremus – at 05:00

Backup power for a small town:

The FT8 MobilePac Transportable Power Station

01 November 2006

bump – at 17:24
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Page last modified on November 01, 2006, at 05:24 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / American Public Health Association

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: American Public Health Association

29 October 2006

Goju – at 23:35

OK Fluwikians - we need your help.

As Pixie pointed out on the TLC thread, there is a major disconnect between the higher Government warnings and the local Public Health Officers who often control our town’s reponses to health concerns - in this case Panflu preparedness.

I found the American Public Health Associations website at http://www.apha.org

They have a Panflu section. It is woefully in need of our expertise.

I also found their Panflu blog… it is here:

http://www.getreadyforflu.blogspot.com/

I have sent a comment already and hopefully they will post it.

Please go there and post your comments. The more they hear from us, the sooner they may respond by telling their members - your local Health Officer - what they need to DO to get everyone they are responsible for ready for Panflu.

30 October 2006

Goju – at 00:24

and this is great… send an email to your state reps automatically.

http://www.capwiz.com/apha/issues/alert/?alertid=8770051&type=CO

scroll down to Take Action and this will automatically send the email to your state reps. I changed the top of the letters to relect who I was (a concerned father).

when you send it, it shows the names of your state reps. Very cool and easy way to communicate with them.

Goju – at 00:28

and here is the American Public Health Associations email address

Pandemicflu@apha.org

write to them and ask for their help with your town’s public Health Office.

Average Concerned Mom – at 07:44

bump

and Goju — I think this initiative is a great idea!

Pixie – at 07:51

Goju - yes, great initiative!!

Pushing through our problems to find avenues of solutions is exactly why the synergy of the Fluwikie is so great, and is greater than what any of us individually can begin to think of or do.

anon_22 – at 08:43

Way to go, Eveyone!!

Spirit in the Wind – at 09:59

That was easy! Takes about 10 seconds to send.

Thanks Goju

01 November 2006

bump – at 17:22
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Page last modified on November 01, 2006, at 05:22 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / CFR Estimates Any Good

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: CFR Estimates Any Good

18 October 2006

OnandAnonat 10:36

an excerpt from an article entitled “Disease Mitigation Measures in the control of Pandemic Influenza” published in Biosecurity and Bioterrorism, volume 4 No. 4 2006 reads (pp2)

“….The HHS and HSC documents assume that, in the worst case, the case-fatality ratio would be equal to that of 1918 (about 2.5%). {footnote 10 and 11} Such data as are available from the past 300 years show the 1918 influenza pandemic was, by far, the most lethal.

To date, the current case-fatality ratios have been 50% or more. H%N! infection has been clinically more severe, and many patients have symptoms that differ from those caused by other influenza strains. {footnote 12 and 13} So far, the virus has exhibited little ability to spread from human to human. it has been widely assumed that if the current strain of virus did transform into one that is more readily transmissable, the virus would assume characteristics and case-fatality ratios more closely resembling previous pandemic strains…..”

Footnotes 10 and 11 refers to the HHS and US national panflu plans respectively.

So where is the science to back up these “wide assumptions” that are being made? I don’t see any. It may be worthwhile to email Jennifer B. Nuzzo, one of the authors, and ask her this question- her email is Jnuzzo at upmc dash biosecurity dot org

This paper goes on to make a number of recommendations based on this unsupported assumption (that the pandemic will be no worse than 1918). A response that is appropriate for a 1918 event would be disastrous for something more serious. This “assumption” needs to be challenged, IMO, since it drives a lot of the complacency we encounter.

crfullmoon – at 11:20

assume; put an = after the second “s”, put a + after the “u” if we risk lives believing some old spreadsheet where the job may have been, Make a do-able scenario for COOP plans that doesn’t panic anyone.

See also Must A Pan Flu Decrease in Lethality? , Fatality Rate Question , and Are Hospitals Prepping? - our current capacity isn’t even up to months of extra sick people surges, even if it wasn’t fatal, which H5N1 sure still is; with hospital care and meds now.

(and where was that thread; making the case H5N1 was harder to get from contact with sick birds compared to how easy it seems be to get from contact with a sick person?)

Dr. Nabarro had said, scientists had told him it was possible to go pandemic without losing virulence. Gartner Fellows interview, Dec 2005…” The biology colleagues that I speak with tell me that if the pathogenic characteristics of H5N1 were to be taken forward as it mutates into having a human-to-human transmission capacity, then we would have a virus with high pathogenicity. “…

Pixie – at 11:43

I have yet to see a scientific paper that supports the assertion that the CFR of H5N1 will drop to 2% while explainng the mechanism by which this will be accomplished. Is there such a paper out there somewhere? There may be, I just have not seen one yet. What is the basis for the HHS and HHCs assumption of a 2% CFR?

As you say, OnandAnon, the assumptions are shared wildely, but the evidence is not so readily produced. In conversations with physcians, scientists, and officials I often hear the assumption of a 2% CFR, and have repeatedly challenged them to bring me supporting evidence for that claim. So far, there have been no takers. The good thing is that at that point, that is when the serious conversations about how to mitigate the impact of a pandemic begin.

Pixie – at 11:44

I meant to say “widely” up there, not “wildely,” but that may have been a Freudian slip.

Hillbilly Bill – at 12:08

Pixie – at 11:43 “What is the basis for the HHS and HHCs assumption of a 2% CFR?”

IMO, they stay with such a low figure because intuitively they know we are screwed if the CFR is even double their ridiculously low estimate.

ObiwanKenobiat 12:16

I have given this some thought.

Q- What group of federal employees is going to be most affected by a pandemic?

A- The TSA. The TSA screeners are in constant contact with people who are travelling from all over the world. If there is a flu pandemic they are going to get hit first and hit worst.

I deal with the TSA all the time. None of them know anything at all about a flu pandemic. Their supervisors tell me when I ask that there is no stockpile of PPE, no drugs, no way to protect their staff. If the word got out to the TSA employees about what would really happen to them and to their families, they’d all quit and go back to flipping burgers or mopping floors, and there would be no security screening. I think this is a major reason why there is strong resistance to speaking the truth.

crfullmoon – at 15:45

Do we have this on the Wiki yet?

Oct 15 …”Hundreds of medical experts are discussing the scenario of an Avian influenza pandemic at the Hobart conference.

They say bird flu has already been detected in 53 countries, and if the virus spreads to Australia the predicted mortality rate is 35 per cent.

Professor Marcus Skinner, from Tasmania’s North West Regional Hospital, says existing preparedness plans do not anticipate the rapid erosion of front-line hospital staff in the event of an avian flu outbreak.”…

LauraBat 19:57

Oh, but they’re clever! By saying 1918 was “the worst in 300 years” they get to exclude the plagues of the middle ages that wiped out 1/3 or more of the European population. The faulty thinking that the CFR “must/will” decrease is doing so much harm. By stating 2% “worst case” people think it won’t be nearly that bad and decide to take their chances and not prep. Given where it is right now, I’d be happy with 10%. Two percent is a dream scenario.

19 October 2006

econ101 – at 23:28

Something has really bugged me for a long time and I want someone to correct me if I’m wrong. I have read on various BF forums for two years now that the CFR for the 1918 pandemic was somewhere between 2 and 2.5%. Everyone seems to agree on this.

Also, there seems to be agreement that about 40% of the people in the world became infected with somewhere between 20 and 100 million deaths with the most recent studies leaning to the higher number. I will split the difference and use 60 million deaths.

In 1918 there where approx. 1.8 billion people.

So, 1.8 billion x 40%= 720 million people became sick.

60 million deaths divided by 720 million infected people equals a CFR of 8.3%

Big difference.

anon_22 – at 23:47

econ101,

That too was extensively debated at one point. I believe the answer is that a) we don’t really know, as so little data is available, and b) the numbers given are extrapolations of estimates of a non-randomly chosen small sample of ‘’whatever city (see the bias?) was most convenient to research or kept the best records, all done by (mostly) Western or Western-biased researchers.

If you are only 1 or maybe 2 people who has researched a particular subject, and if one could give an accuracy score of 0–100, and you got 23 while the other guy got 18 (neither being very accurate), then your ‘research’ will still be preferentially cited.

The more often you are cited, the more likely people will take that as ‘proven’ or ‘God given truth’.

econ101 – at 23:54

TY anon 22 but it’s still a hugh diffrence when assumtions are being made on 2.0% CFR.

anon_22 – at 23:54

Pixie – at 11:43

I have yet to see a scientific paper that supports the assertion that the CFR of H5N1 will drop to 2% while explainng the mechanism by which this will be accomplished.

We do have the opposite, opinions by several famous scientists who say that may not necessarily happen. H5N1 Outbreaks and Enzootic Influenza, Robert G. Webster, Malik Peiris, Honglin Chen, and Yi Guan, Emerging Infectious Diseases, Jan 06.

The paper concludes:

We cannot afford simply to hope that human-to-human spread of H5N1 will not happen and that, if it does, the pathogenicity of the virus will attenuate. Notably, the precursor of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)–associated coronavirus (31) repeatedly crossed species barriers, probably for many years, before it finally acquired the capacity for human-to-human transmission, and its pathogenicity to humans was not attenuated. We cannot wait and allow nature to take its course. SARS was interrupted by early case detection and isolation, but influenza is transmissible early in the course of the disease and cannot be controlled by similar means. Just 1 year before the catastrophic tsunami of December 2004, Asian leaders rejected a proposed tsunami warning system for the Indian Ocean because it was too expensive and the risk was too remote. This mistake must not be repeated in relation to an H5N1 avian influenza pandemic. We must use this window of opportunity to prepare and to begin prepandemic implementation of prevention and control measures.1

Keep this source in your portfolio of quotes.

anon_22 – at 23:55

econ101,

I gave that by way of explanation, not justification.

20 October 2006

anon_22 – at 01:06

OnandAnon – at 10:36

So where is the science to back up these “wide assumptions” that are being made? I don’t see any. It may be worthwhile to email Jennifer B. Nuzzo, one of the authors, and ask her this question-

If you read the document very closely you will notice how carefully the authors avoided personally endorsing this assumption while not challenging it directly either. What they are doing IMHO is assessing the plans based on the assumptions given. That is, they are essentially saying to the government, “if you think this is what’s going to happen, and I’m not challenging you on that point right now, lets see if your mitigation strategies for these assumptions will work.”

This is the pragmatic approach, and offer some moderately useful advice for the government to use. IF, and I’m only speculating, that assessing the government’s plans in relation to their assumptions is the job description they were given for this paper, then this is understandable.

How far individual experts are willing to deviate from the task at hand depends on many things, among them consensus if there’s more than one author.

I think they can and should go a lot further, because we may be running out of time. Their next assessment really should be on the assumptions themselves, as those are the deeper level issues that drive policy.

If a problem is worse than expected by say 30% or 50%, it may still be feasible although difficult to take your mitigation strategies and just upgrade them, ie do more of the same.

If, however, the problem is actually worse by 20 or 30 or even ‘just’ 10 times, then the secondary and tertiary effects are not just exponentially greater, but very likely to be qualitatively different as well. ie the nature and not just magnitude of the problem is now entirely different, then it is unlikely that policies suggested for the original scenario will work, however much you expand them. They will need an entirely different, probably novel, kindof response.

“More of the same” just ain’t gonna do it.

Mamabird – at 08:36

econ101 – at 23:28 of Oct 19

“Something has really bugged me for a long time and I want someone to correct me if I’m wrong. I have read on various BF forums for two years now that the CFR for the 1918 pandemic was somewhere between 2 and 2.5%. Everyone seems to agree on this.”

When one speaks of CIR and CFR, they should probably be country specific to be clear, or state that they are using world averages. The numbers can range all over the map from high to low. I believe the numbers of which you speak above relate to the United States, and are likely based on the following:

Population: 100 million-----------Flu cases: 28 million, therefore the CIR would be 28%

Deaths: 675,000, therefore the CFR would be 2.4%

Hope that helps. Some countries, such as India, had CFR that far exceeded the numbers above.

LauraBat 11:25

The other problem in using 1918 as a guide (okay, besides the fact that it was a totally different strain) is we really don’t know what the infection/cfr rates were. They are purely estimates based on imcomplete data. Accurate records were not kept, and many patients were cared for and/or died at home. Too many cases where they have been used as “fact.”

Besides, I totally don’t buy that it will fall from >60% to 2%, but that’s just me lol!

crfullmoon – at 12:50

Mamabird – what happens to the fatality numbers if you take the low-cfr spreadshhets and wonder what would happen if all the people supposed to need hospital care can’t get it? Or, that all the people who fall sick may need hospital care that isn’t available, even on the community-overflow level?

(It keeps sounding like New Orleans planning only only getting hit by a Cat1 hurricane or something…because it is too hard to make a prepare for a Cat5.)

crfullmoon – at 13:51

Found a White Paper pdf that used 5% to 7% cfr (and only 25% of population infected)

Tom DVM – at 13:58

If this is defined as a pandemic, specifically because our (virgin) immune systems have never encountered the pathogen before…

…then what is physiological etc. process by which 75% of the population is going to escape infection?

I have yet to hear an explanation that is even remotely believable.

It is one thing to say that we won’t have a pandemic at all…that is defendable. It is quite another to say that ‘fairy dust’ is going to protect us from a unique virus.

Mamabird – at 14:01

crfullmoon – at 12:50

Excellent point, and I like your analogy of the Cat 1 and 5 hurricane. Very appropriate.

What I have seen and heard about CIR and CFR (and none of this may ultimately hold water) is that if you have a 1957 variety pandemic, you may have relatively high clinical infection rates (because it is a novel virus and the populace has little natural immunity), but the illness is mild. That is, not much need for hospitalizations (except for those persons that have other complicating physical issues), and higher than normal death rates, but nothing socially serious like in 1918.

So, for example if H9N2 or H7N3 were to break loose as a pandemic virus, you theoritically could have 40% clinical infection rates, but only a .2% case fatality ratio. Lots of folks would be home sick and away from the workplace, which will be problematic, but hopefully there wont be fear and panic that causes a lot of SIP, which could seriously hamper society and the economy.

On the other hand, if you have a 1918 variety pandemic, you not only have a relatively high CIR, say 30%, but the virus causes severe illness in those that it attacks as well. This of course results in high hospitalizations and high death rates, and evidence of that occurring may cause fear and panic as well, excerbating the social problems. What I’m told is that in 1918 a substantial number of deaths could be attributed to the virus itself, and not the clinical infection rates. A CFR of 2.5% would generally be experienced if 30% of the population was infected or only 3%. Now some say that with today’s medical care, a lot of the secondary bacterial infections of the 1918 pandemic would be better controlled, thus saving lives, but an H5N1 virus appears to result in death for other reasons, in spite of quality care.

So, I guess an in between scenario is possible which might assume high infection rates, and a virus that causes fairly severe, but treatable disease. In other words, if one gets proper medical care, you recover, but if that care is delayed or limited, you have a higher chance of death. In that case, I agree with where you are going - a low CFR can not be assumed because the high CIR with such a virus would quickly overwhelm a medical response system that is already limited.

Unlike the citizens of New Orleans that will likely run from the next major hurricane, unfortunately it is difficult to dodge a pandemic. So, prepare for something ugly, and then pray for Low Path.

crfullmoon – at 14:06

So, we’re back to Dr.Osterholm’s original two-word prognostication…

Good luck, people! Keep being Worst-case Preparation gadflies. (since it doesn’t look like anywhere really has a few months of surge capacity up its sleeve)

Mamabird – at 14:26

Tom DVM – at 13:58

“…then what is physiological etc. process by which 75% of the population is going to escape infection?”

I can only relate to you what others in the field have stated, and which is that there may be a couple of reasons for some hope: 1)the pandemic is caused by a virus that is not completely novel, and/or 2)some people may have a genetic disposition for avoiding infection.

The first can be explained by comparison of the 1957 and 1968 pandemic events. Although five of the eight gene segments of the 1957 H2N2 had been circulating in the human population for decades, the HA, NA and PB1 segments were novel. Therefore, the CIR of ‘57 was similar to the CIR of 1918.

On the other hand, in the 1968 pandemic, the H3 was novel, but N2 was not completely new. It was the former N2 of the 1957 virus, but with mutations that had been seen by the population to some extent. Therefore, its CIR was only a bit higher than CIRs seen in robust seasonal flu outbreaks, less than 15%.

Now H5N1, is clearly novel as to the HA component, but at the time of the pandemic outbreak of this virus, the N1 component may not be too disimilar to the N1 in the H1N1 seasonal flu strain that continues to circulate widely today. Since the body builds antibodies toward both the HA and NA of the influenza virus, there may exist partial immunity to H5N1 in today’s population. And to this point, the seasonal flu vaccines may provide partial cross immunity for H5N1.

As to the second point, I will admit to speculation on the part of the folks making predictions. It goes to the point that in the H5N1 clusters we have seen to date, they seem to stick fairly near to blood relatives and closely related family members. The H2H2H transmissions have not been confirmed and documentated outside these families. We also may have seen some evidence of this factor in 1918. The Brevig Mission isolate from Alaska was from a member of the Inuit tribe in which 85% of the population succumbed. Are these infections due to host genetics or perhaps simply because all of these family members live in close quarters. Who knows?

That’s Just Ducky! – at 14:51

I’ve been reading John Barry’s book, “The Great Influenza”. He interviewed survivors who were children at the time of the pandemic. In Philidelphia, they hung crepe on the doors of houses where someone had died. White for child, black for adult, gray for elderly. Practically every other house had crepe on it. Virtually every household had at least one person sick.

The vast majority of people died without ever being seen by a doctor or nurse, because there were just too many sick and dying people. The city came to a virtual standstill. People were just to terrified to leave their houses. The Red Cross had tens of thousands of volunteers across the country who delivered food door to door to people so they wouldn’t starve. The food was left outside on the stoop.

Entire households were wiped out. Bodies were left inside houses for days because no one would go into them to take them away, not even for $100 an hour. Family members abandoned other family members to die. Orphaned children starved to death amidst their dead parents’ bodies because no one would bring them food.

If all of this is true, I don’t believe that the case fatality rate was only 2 or 3 percent.

Tom DVM – at 15:17

Hi Mamabird and TJD!s. Thanks for the comments.

Mamabird. We can speculate as to what will happen down the road and hopefully for all of us either H5N1 will go away never to bother us again or the pandemic will be mild when it comes.

However we can come to some conclusions from the data we do have.

Three of the last six pandemics (1830.1890 and 1918) were of approx. virulence. In otherwords we have a fifty percent chance of having a pandemic like the one in 1918.

Dr. JFT has stated that morphoglogically, H5N1 is a ‘kissin cousin’ of H1N1 (1918)

While the 1957 and 1968 pandemic viruses were formed by reassortment between H1N1 (1918) and other viruses, 1918 was a pure avian virus that attained pandemic potential by mutation. The similarity and behavior of H5N1 indicates that it too, carries the potential to mutate to pandemic potential.

Given the fact that the H1 has not altered in the past nine years to decrease virulence as predicted, it must be assumed that the eventual mutation to pandemic potential will leave the N1 gene also unrelated to any N1 in the environment or in the past.

The changing in estimates for mortality in the 1918 pandemic over the decades and recently, indicates that there was no accurate record keeping or way to now determine the actual CFR. As That’s Just Ducky! says…the likelyhood that it was only 2.5% is unlikely. An actual CFR of 8–10% now appears more likely and reasonable given the data.

Novel viruses (ex. smallpox) result in an infection rate of somewhere between 80–95% of the population. I will accept the argument that 25% in 1918 were infected in the second (virulent) wave that lasted six weeks…but I cannot except that the end result for H1N1 was a total infection rate of only 25% of the population…

…In John Barry’s book, it stated that 1919 was either the second or third worst time period for influenza deaths in the twentieth century and at that point the pandemic was supposed to be over…in another section of the book he describes epidemics of H1N1 that continued throughout the nineteen-twenties.

In my opinion, the historical and scientific facts indicate that 95% of the population over possibly ten years will be infected with a novel virus equivalent to H1N1 which was not formed by reassortment, leaving no opportunity for the human immune system to have ever seen it before.

The Doctor – at 15:20

As the old saw goes “There are liars, damn liars, and statisticians”. How true and appropriate for this thread.

The answer to OnandAnon’s thread starting question is; no one really knows. But we can guess and cloak these guesses in high-sounding terms like the one I used to describe my own guesses in an earlier thread “mathematical model”. The truth is that models start with a few basic facts like population size and then makes assumptions (another big word for guess) about how the flu will act and what effect its actions will have on human health.

Models can be adjusted for conditions that increase or decrease the effect pandemic influenza might have on a population. The problem is the adjustment of a model increases uncertainty in the outcome. At the same time, failure to adjust a model can result in a result that is way off the mark.

Models are truly “pie in the sky”. They are totally unreal, existing only in the mind or computer of their maker. Always keep this in mind when evaluating a model’s prediction. They are usually wrong and at best only in the ballpark.

That said I have been busy modeling the 1918 and coming pandemic since becoming interested in the problem 2 years ago. The predictions made by my simple models have helped me to get a grasp on the magnitude of the problem pandemic influenza represents. Being a model maker, I know it would be foolish to rely on a specific prediction made by one of my models or anyone’s models of anything. The value of a good model is not the actual prediction it returns but the range possibilities surrounding it.

Real statisticians, unlike duffers like me, can provide you with this range called “the standard deviation of the mean”. Here is the good part. The true answer is pretty likely to lie within the range provided around the models mean AKA result. So, lets say to pandemic model returns a case fatality rate of 8% ± 2%. In this case, the proper interpretation of the model is that the CFR for the flu is likely to be between 6% and 10%.

If you know how many standard deviations were used to calculate the ± 2% range, then you can know how probable it is that the real result is within the range. For instance, if they used 1 standard deviation, the predicted result will fall within the given range 2 out of 3 times. If they used 2 standard deviations, the certainty increases to 19 out of 20 times.

So, models can be very useful. They can also be manipulated as in “garbage in garbage out”. In my study of other’s writings on the pandemic and its impact on society and health, I have encountered some of the most egregious manipulation of assumptions so that the results of the model will not contradict a hoped for outcome by a governmental agency. In fact, this practice appears to be widespread.

My best estimate of the CFR for a severe pandemic in the US and EU is 8%. I don’t give a range because my work is so unsophisticated that it would be ridiculous to do so. I suggest that you just assign one, like the ± 2% like we used in the above exercise. (Its all just guess work anyway so don’t get your panties in a twist about it.)

I wrote my results down and published them on the www.BirdFluManual.com website where it can be downloaded. It is called Estimates of Illness and Death During the Pandemic. The article discusses the model, the adjustments made in it and why. I hope this post and the article helps provide those of you who have questions about this issue some insight into how this guesswork is done and also just how fragile these predictions are. When you read the article, keep this post in mind. Models are just fancy guesswork.

http://www.birdflumanual.com/articles/illnessAndDeath.asp

Grattan Woodson, MD, FACP

Tom DVM – at 15:23

Sorry, one thing I forgot to mention in respect to CFR:

They did catch one break in 1918. Whether we will in the future…only time will tell.

The virulent wave in 1918 was the second of three waves. That meant that those who were infected in the first wave were protected in the second…if not completely, enough to prevent death…some of these infections would probably have been asymptomatic…

…this would significantly lower CFR.

To extrapolate from this to the present day…even if H5N1 is the equivalent to 1918, if the virulent wave is the third wave then the CFR would be lower than 1918 automatically.

However, if the virulent wave is the first wave…well then God Help Us All!!

That’s Just Ducky! – at 15:36

This time there may not be (probably won’t be, actually) individual shorter waves, there may (probably) be only one, because of the way that transportation has changed since 1918. It no longer takes weeks for disease to be transmitted across countries and continents. Many more people travel now, and they travel and a much faster speed. Let us hope that if this turns out to be the case, that it has a low case fatality rate.

The Doctor – at 15:55

I agree with TJD’s comment that this coming pandemic’s epidemiology and worldwide spread is very likely to be different from past pandemics due to the affect of modern human travel methods. Waves may still occur though if it is temperature change (spring and summer heating) that interrupts the progress of the virus through the susceptible.

Grattan Woodson, MD, FACP

That’s Just Ducky! – at 15:59

Think of all the ramifications of an estimated 50% of the world’s population becoming infected, 3 billion people, within a very short period of time, say 6 months, all at once with the peak of the bell curve lasting approximately 3 or 4 months with a case fatality rate of 8 percent, 240 million people.

That’s Just Ducky! – at 16:02

Actually not the peak of the bell curve, probably the top third third.

That’s Just Ducky! – at 16:06

Dr. Woodson, you make a good point.

I am sure experts have already done this modelling. I would love to see what such modelling looks like on a global scale.

That’s Just Ducky! – at 16:09

I am also sure that they have already modelled the estimated ramifications to such an event.

Mamabird – at 16:10

All good points from above - stimulating conversation that reminds me why I chose a career other than that of an actuary.

And of course, case fatality rates (for any given number of actual deaths) are inversely proportional to the the clinical infection rates. So, for example, if you believe that approximately 675,000 persons died in the US as a result of the pandemic of 1918, the CFR would only be about 2.4% if CIR was about 28% for a population of just over 100 million. If the number of actual infections were twice as high, making the CIR closer to 50%, then the CFR would be about half or only 1.2%.

There are actually two approaches that have been used to guess at the number of pandemic deaths. One is the actual counts from all the local records, which as stated above can easily miss the mark. The other way is based on population figures, which of course are not always perfectly accuate as well, but would give a quick check to mehtod one.

Prior to the pandemic the population of the US was just over 100 million and had been steadily growing by 1 million for each of the prior ten years. The population after the pandemic was just under 100 million. Therefore, assuming that the birth rates were only minimally affected by the pandemic, then it would seem that the outside number of deaths would be around the 1 million mark. Disturbing yes, but of course nothing approaching the CFR of current H5N1.

That’s Just Ducky! – at 16:18

Another aspect to consider; it is estimated that we will have collateral damage at 100% of the actual deaths due to infection, due in large part to our modern JITD system.

That’s Just Ducky! – at 16:29

If this be the case, then it is no wonder to me that TPTB are somewhat reserved on the subject.

Mamabird – at 16:30

Tom DVM – at 15:17

“An actual CFR of 8–10% now appears more likely and reasonable given the data.”

Just looking at these numbers, there can be a range of results. For example, if the CIR was 28% during the 1918 pandemic, and the CFR was in the range of 8–10%, then the death count would range from 2.2 to 2.8 million persons out of a population of 100 million. That’s pretty far removed from the official population figure changes during this time period.

On the other hand, if the death count was about 1 million and CFR was 8–10%, then the infection rates could only have been in the range of 10–13%, which seems awfully low given all the accounts of the event.

So, while I certainly share your concern with H5N1 going pandemic with exceptionally high mortality rates, I think 1918 stats are not too far removed from those that have been documented except for the number of people that became infected. No one has much comfort with those figures for a variety of reasons.

That’s Just Ducky! – at 16:38

Mamabird – at 16:30

Why would we think that the CIR in 1918 pandemic might have been only 28%?

That’s Just Ducky! – at 16:47

By all accounts in John Barry’s book, by the way, the second wave was not only much more virulent, but also had a much higher CIR, or CAR. This doesn’t seem to hold with the postulated reduction of CFR to increased CIR/CAR. In 1918–1919, the virus didn’t trade virulence for transmissibility, as some are postulating that H5N1 will do. I really don’t know how they came up with that postulate. There must be some reason.

Tom DVM – at 17:13

“No one has much comfort with those figures for a variety of reasons.”

Mamabird. I agree completely with your statement.

If I was faced with the catastrophe they were faced with, I don’t think I would care much for recording data either.

The overall CFR for the pandemic would include differential CFR’s from around the world and I believe that North America, at the time, got off relatively better than the rest of the world, possibly due to population density that by now has equalized somewhat.

Secondly, it depends over what time period, the CIR and CFR may have been measured over. I was wrong in my post above, I believe 1920 produced the third highest influenza deaths in the twentieth century behind 1918 and 1919.

As you said above, it all comes down to how novel the virus is when the pandemic takes hold…if it is as novel as 1918 (50% probability) then the CIR and CFR may go on for most of a decade with 85–95% of the population infected, under natural circumstances with no effective vaccine avaliable…

…and as TJD! says, that does not include collateral damage.

The last time North America made out better than the rest of the world…I wouldn’t take bets on that one this time…it seems to me that North America is less self-reliant and more prone to infrastructure collapse now than most other parts of the worlds.

That’s Just Ducky! – at 17:20

Tom DVM – at 17:13 “The last time North America made out better than the rest of the world…I wouldn’t take bets on that one this time…it seems to me that North America is less self-reliant and more prone to infrastructure collapse now than most other parts of the worlds. “

Yes I agree. Actually, I think that instead of saying North America, I would instead say western civilization.

That’s Just Ducky! – at 17:25

This likely collapse of the infrastruture collapse of western civilization are the ramifications I was alluding to in:

That’s Just Ducky! – at 15:59 Think of all the ramifications of an estimated 50% of the world’s population becoming infected, 3 billion people, within a very short period of time, say 6 months, all at once with the peak of the bell curve lasting approximately 3 or 4 months with a case fatality rate of 8 percent, 240 million people.

I was also thinking of the collateral damage when I wrote that, I just forgot to write it.

That’s Just Ducky! – at 17:44

I wonder about how accurate that figure of 675,000 fatalities from the Spanish Flu is, and whether it might have been a lot higher.

If you recall, TPTB of San Francisco covered up the extent of the damage and the loss of life in the 1906 earthquake, so it wouldn’t have such a negative impact on the city, economically. They wanted people and business to come to SF, so they painted a much rosier picture than what was really the situation.

In 1918–1918, TPTB, for political and economic reasons, first ignored and denied the risk of the pandemic time after time, even when presented with evidence of the risk and the unfolding epidemic. Then, they lied to the public about what was happening, telling them that the risk was over when it wasn’t, telling them every day that the peak of the pandemic had come, and would begin it’s descent the next day, when it continued to rise steadily for quite a long time. They were able to get away with this because of the comparatively primitive means of mass communiations at the time. I am sure they then saw to it that the CIR and CFT were significantly minimized to cover up their incompetence and negligence.

If you read John Barry’s book, released in 2004, you can see amazing corrollaries between the actions of TPTB of SF in 1906, the actions of TPTB in 1918–1919 and TPTB today.

Tom DVM – at 17:48

TJD!!. I completely agree. I had the same thing written down about western civilization but removed the tail end of the post because I didn’t want to appear to pessimistic.

We are not what we were in 1918. They were tough, used to epidemics and pandemics (an equivalent pandemic twenty years earlier), they had just come through a war, most new how to grow food, store food, heat their own houses and didn’t require hydro or cars to survive.

The third world today has the self reliance and resilience that we exhibited in 1918.

I have great faith in our resourcefullness in the face of adversity. It’s just that we don’t have a lot of experience with it and I am afraid the tsunami wave of infrastructure collapse that hits all of us at once…may be a little bit of a challenge…

…but I know that once we get over the initial shock, genetics will kick in and our frontier spirit will save us. /:0)

We will probably never be able to estimate the exact CFR and CIR for 1918…but we know for sure worldwide it had to be far higher than the statistics given in the past…and we should not assume that H5N1 will be similar…nature never repeats itself.

Tom DVM – at 17:50

One thing I forgot to mention was that in 1918, they were used to seeing those around them die and they often prepared the dead and had wakes in their houses…in a sense they were acclimatized to death…and we aren’t.

That’s Just Ducky! – at 18:00

In all fairness, I should acknowledge that TPTB really didn’t have control over the establishment of this JITD system, and, at least to some degree, did not *intend* to overlook or fail to plan for the extent the risk, anymore than TPTB in any other period of time did. That being said, I still believe that what I said at 17:44 is still true.

That’s Just Ducky! – at 18:12

Tom DVM – at 17:50

True. Hadn’t even thought of that. They were somewhat fortunate and more easily able to cope psychologically with all the death than we would be now.

In case I seemed to be straying a little off topic with the talk of TPTB, I should explain my thinking. This may have something to do with the idea that the CFR should go down so drastically. There may be pressure being brought to bear on scientists to say this, and this could have something to do with all the controversy and lack of agreement between the scientists over whether that may or may not be true.

Speculation to some degree on my part, no doubt.

Tom DVM – at 18:25

Thats Just Ducky!. The virus is not the only thing that has evolved in the past eight months…the level of debate on flu wiki has evolved as well. I couldn’t find very much on this thread that I don’t agree with…all of the comments have been thoughtful and at a very high scientific level of debate…it’s an honour to be included in it with the rest of you.

“This may have something to do with the idea that the CFR should go down so drastically.”

Okay. What is drastically. From 50% to 25%…that’s pretty drastic…or from 70% to 20%…that’s even more drastic…

…and that is the real issue…H5N1 has a long way to fall to reach H1N1…hard to believe but true.

About now, I would go for the miracle disappearence except that leaves H7N1, and H9 and H11 and H3N8 and SARS and Nipah…I’m sure you get my drift.

It is a known fact that suspots (radiation) effects mutation rates. As Medical Maven has said…we are in an unprecedented period of sunspot activity that doesn’t reach a maximum until 2012…one way or another the next five years are going to be an adventure…

…I think I liked the last century better.

Tom DVM – at 18:28

That’s Just Ducky! I guess what I meant to say was that they were acclimatized…we’re not. They were self-reliant…we’re not. They were tough as whalebone…we’re not.

Leo7 – at 18:44

This is an interesting thread with more than reasonable comments. I wonder if we didn’t have Barry’s book, what else would we be looking at for comparison? I know from reading the old Army reports written 1920 after they looked back on their own records that they were blindsided by H1N1 because they battled viral epidemic after epidemic. It snuck in basically and slapped them awake. The nation at war made the issue foggy because the illusion of keeping fresh troops in Atlantic transit was more important than asking what slapped me? Bottom line, even when a few doctors knew they had something bizarre going on they couldn’t stop the momentum of the disease. That might be our lesson as well. We can’t stop it. We don’t know if or when it comes or how it will present, so the sane thing is to utilize public health or bolster it so we come out of the disease in a stonger position. I just don’t know how to make that happen.

That’s Just Ducky! – at 18:45

Yes, and let us head into the wind in the face of the storm.

Tom DVM – at 18:59

Leo7 and TJD!. I am not afraid of H5N1…okay I am afraid but at least give me the tools to give children a fighting chance.

I worked out the cost of collecting the antibiotics etc. for the county I live in today…it came to 2 million dollars…for that small price to pay, we could have a treatment to hand out to every family and every member of a family.

For another two million, we cold probably have enough food arranged so that we wouldn’t be short of food either.

I don’t think the cost is so outrageous.

You know what the real problem is…Dick Thompson and his friends at the WHO. They told the world that only 2–7 million would die from a pandemic and then in Canada, Health Canada threw in the statement that we lose more to smoking each year anyway…that message seeped from the WHO to federal authorities to provincial authorities to municipal authorities…

…and we at flu wiki will never change that.

Now the thing is that if I have all the food I need and all the medications I need and my five neighbours don’t…then if I was them and my family was at risk, I would help myself to the supplies I had stockpiled as well…

…bottom line…it has to be community based and the above have made that impossible.

That’s Just Ducky! – at 19:06

Leo7 – at 18:44 “That might be our lesson as well. We can’t stop it.”

Hindsight is always 20/20. We can try to corrolate similar situations in the past to contemporary situations, in an effort to try to predict, to try to make sense of, but the problem is that the variables are never the same. We can’t see the situation clearly enough in present time. We can’t even identify the variables until it’s over. We think we should be able to control events, our destiny, if we plan well enough.

We know we will have another pandemic, we always do. We will muddle through as best we can, like we always do, then in the end we’ll go on from there with whatever is left. I think it’s probably about as simple as that.

Leo7 – at 19:08

TomDVM: You have a laser beam on H5N1. You understand it much better than I do. Tom at 15:17 above. I agree with you about H and N. Mamabird has her fingers on the pulse of some information—and it’s not MSM. Both of you make my head ache from the potentials…Keep debating.

anonymous – at 21:58

Tom DVM – at 18:59 said “For another two million, we cold probably have enough food arranged so that we wouldn’t be short of food either.”

You’re talking 6.1 cents for each of Canada’s 32.6 million people. What are you going to buy with that nickle and dime that’s gonna prevent a food shortage ?

Tom DVM – at 22:11

anonymous LOL! I told you to come and live in Canada.

Actually, the first thing I said was “ I worked out the cost of collecting the antibiotics etc. for the county I live in today…it came to 2 million dollars…”…

…followed by…“For another two million, we cold probably have enough food arranged so that we wouldn’t be short of food either.”

There are approx. 75,000 people in my country according to a meeting held recently by the Chief Medical Officer of Health. Two million divided by 75,000 would equal approx. 27 dollars to stockpile dry goods that could be used in a pandemic. Then when the pandemic hit, we could grind oats, wheat and corn that would go for cattle feed into foodstuffs and slaughter animals locally to provide food as well.

The big problem in my mine is where in North America are we going to get enough antibiotics to treat 30–50 % of the population within a very short time-frame.

In my opinion, if you want a recipe for instant anarchy, provide young parents with no medical support of any kind coupled with no antibiotics etc. and by extension no hope.

Tom DVM – at 22:14

Geez…county not country @ 22.11

26 October 2006

Marble – at 13:49

That’s Just Ducky! – at 17:44: “I wonder about how accurate that figure of 675,000 fatalities from the Spanish Flu is, and whether it might have been a lot higher.”

Although it’s impossible to know the real number, the U.S. death estimates for the Spanish flu pandemic have been generally accepted by researchers.

Note that the 675,000 figure is the sum of 550,000 for 1918–1919 plus an additional 125,000 attributed to a 4th wave in 1920.1

Notes

  1. Glezen, W.P., “Emerging Infections: Pandemic Influenza,” Epidemiologic Reviews (1996) 18(1):64–76.
Fiddlerdave – at 16:39

Give other than a trivial CIR (any more than annual flu), you can just assume NO modern (even at the level of 1918 knowledge) health care for the victims in calculating CFR once the pandemic is under way.

People’s ability to deal with serious illness and death is very low. I speak from being willing to present with a number of families for deaths of people in their family, and supporting them in dealing with the experience and the choices. I estimate a majority will go to pieces as a family member(s)become seriously ill or dies in the very prolonged and messy process without the support and buffer of the healthcare system. My parents brought my grandfather into my home when I was young for him to die among family. I will always be grateful for learning about this process at a young age.

Most of the children of sick and dead parents will simply receive no care if ill (or simply starve and die even if well). The high rate of single parent homes are now far from family, not to mention single person households. Contrast this with the much higher rate of extended families in the early 20th century.

Therefore, CFR (and ancillary deaths)will be much higher with a SIMILAR virulence to the 1918 strain due to the lack of even basic care (food,water) to a much higher percentage of sick people.

Sniffles – at 17:13

Fiddlerdave – at 16:39 I totally agree with your comments. For many people, death is a sterile process. As a society, we are not comfortable with death. Many years ago, I used to work in an oncology unit and saw that even with patients that had known about their conditions and that they were dying, they and their families would have difficulty coping and many did not want to be there with their dying family member because they were not comfortable with death and dying.

The comment you made about single parents was also a good one. In 1918, most people lived in a “community” and helped each other out if they were ill, injured, or had a family member die. That really does not happen anymore. We are on our own. IMHO, the concept of community, or lack of it, will adversely affect how these families will survive through a pandemic.

31 October 2006

crfullmoon – at 19:44

“I estimate a majority will go to pieces as a family member(s)become seriously ill or dies in the very prolonged and messy process without the support and buffer of the healthcare system”

Fiddlerdave I agree, and it’s not a reason for the local health dept/”all-hazards emergency planners” to not tell the public we’re in a pandemic alert period. We need to start trying to become more resiliant households and communities.

10 Things you need to know about Pandemic Influenza

The WHO thought, back in Oct 2005, that we “need to know” a lot more than our state and local authorities think we “need” to know now!

1. Pandemic influenza is different from avian influenza.

2. Influenza pandemics are recurring events.

3. The world may be on the brink of another pandemic.

4. All countries will be affected.

5. Widespread illness will occur.

6. Medical supplies will be inadequate

7. Large numbers of deaths will occur.

8. Economic and social disruption will be great.

9. Every country must be prepared.

(10. well, hey; 9 out of 10, nobody’s perfect)

Bump - Bronco Bill – at 21:25

01 November 2006

anon_22 – at 05:20

I made these 2 slides for a recent presentation. They are self-explanatory.

Bereaved Parents
Orphans in Alaska, 1918
Leo7 – at 15:19

Bumping for good measure.

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.CFREstimatesAnyGood
Page last modified on November 01, 2006, at 03:19 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / What About Swine Flu in China

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: What About Swine Flu in China

31 October 2006

Thinlina – at 08:50

Quite many googlers from China searching for “swine flu in China”. Something happening there?

01 November 2006

Thinlina – at 10:31

anything more today?

zeta – at 13:14

How do you know this? Do you have a link?

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.WhatAboutSwineFluInChina
Page last modified on November 01, 2006, at 01:14 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Public Participation in Community Resilience

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Public Participation in Community Resilience

20 September 2006

anon_22 – at 22:13

Two strands are coming together this week, rather accidentally but auspiciously, maybe.

I was in the Ethics workshop in DC these past 2 days. There were the usual suspects, you know, state, federal, scientists, some half-way clued-up, some not, and the usual range of insightful, extremely pertinent remarks (DA Henderson), pleas to look at the big picture, aka security of supply chain, global issues (Osterholm), and someone passionate who couldn’t keep her mouth shut (yours truly here).

Anyhow, it seemed we all agreed (I think) that it was a good idea to get the public informed and engaged, if only for the fact that the difficulties of pandemic mitigation and the hard choices that have to be made are beginning to filter into the minds of some of the officials, (and hopefully keeping them awake nights).

So. I thought we should take them at their word.

I know that among the audience there are some (number unknown) who are genuinely and actively exploring ways of engaging citizens, not just momentarily, but to build ongoing partnerships that will eventually provide the framework within which difficult choices and dilemmas such as triage can be discussed, and co-operative actions can be initiated.

I think it is a healthy thing. And I think we should help them.

The second strand is the launch of our Pandemic Flu Awareness Week 2006 campaign.

So I would like to suggest those of you who are doing any local publicity, to seek out your local officials and at least inform them of this campaign, and invite them to participate. Even if they are not going to be giving out cards like you, invite them to visit our site, start a conversation, stay in touch with them by email or whatever.

Be friendly. Be patient. Be helpful. Be aware that if they have any pandemic related responsibilities, they are now either going through or will soon be going through their first ‘adjustment reactions’. Be a resource, not a burden.

This idea of ‘citizen engagement’ or ‘citizens as partners’ is here to stay, out of necessity, IMHO. Even if your local official is not receptive at the moment, at some point in the near future (I hope) he will receive communications from ‘upstairs’ telling him to do that. And if you’ve made the approach now, he might remember that you are someone whom he can count on to not freak out and might actually help him.

That is the point when you will be able to begin helping your community most effectively.


Please use this thread for ideas on how to enhance this bridge-building process.

Remember that come a pandemic, (almost) all solutions will be local. And ‘local’ is where we need to bank our goodwill and creativity and energy.

Brunetti – at 22:41

anon_22 Just a brief note from another flu wikian who attended the Ethics Workshop. We are very lucky to have such an informed and committed advocate as you to speak publicly to the issues so forcefully. Thank you for your advocacy at the conference and all that you’re doing with the wiki! I will post more tomorrow when I recover from the conference and the journey home.

21 September 2006

Science Teacher – at 00:02

Good for you Annon_22! I bet you did an amazing job of getting your points across. I hope we will see a ramping up of the risk communications level and that everyday citizens finally get the bigger picture.

This evening I went to a lecture at my local library on disaster preparedness. The event was announced in the library flyer that goes to every household in my area. The speaker had excellent credentials, a published author,who has written a book on the topic, former Chairman of my state’s Disaster Preparedness Commission, state and federal consultant,etc.

Unfortunately, only 5 women turned out for the event (including me) The others were ‘newbies’, some got confused over seasonal flu and H5N1 pandemic, very little understanding of what to prep or even why to prep. Due to the small crowd we sat informally with him and I was able to interject some salient points. It was a good introduction to the concept of a pandemic. With my comments he did get into a little more depth on some of the issues. He told folks to prep for 2 weeks but added or “or more” after my comment. He said that vaccine would be ready after 1st wave. He told the women that after 2 weeks the government had plans to bring food into the area so that people wouldn’t starve. He told people to stock up on food and water and get prepared but then not to worry about it. He used the anology of visiting a doctor and how you let the doctor worry about fixing your illness, not you. I met him in the hallway before the meeting and gave him one of the flyers I had made up with the picture of the Red PA Ribbon and cards along with the PFAW logo and wiki address. I gave each person there a copy. I spoke with him after and he said he would definitely check out our site and really liked the awareness message. Before I left , the Librarian asked me for my name and phone number. I suggested to her that we do a followup discussion with a panel which I would be on, including our town leaders.

I can definitely see how the two strands are fitting together and very auspiciously indeed!

lugon – at 05:16

lugon – at 05:16

\!

lugon – at 05:19

Ah, sorry, I just meant to write a very simple message: “!”. :-)

BUMP – at 08:07
Lorelle – at 08:26

anon_22 – at 22:13

“someone passionate who couldn’t keep her mouth shut “

Wonderful. That’s who the world needs to hear from. It sounds like the sustainable motion is happening now, and getting stronger. When I get back from grandchildren I plan to start things up again in our neighborhood and with the boards I sit on.

Science Teacher, don’t be discouraged by small groups. You enlightened some people in a meaningful way, and can be sure they will pass it on to others. That’s the best way I know of passing information. You’ll see the results of your cultivation. I hope we have a whole year at least to keep getting read!

Lorelle – at 08:28

ready that is.

Brunetti – at 11:34

Lorelle at 8:26 Your thoughts on small groups and the impact of the fluwiki reminded me of one of my favorite poems/songs:

Step By Step

Step by step the longest march can be won, can be won Many stones can form an arch, singly none, singly none And by union what we will can be accomplished still Drops of water turn a mill, singly none, singly none.

From Ruthie Gorton, from the preamble to the constitution

     of the United Mineworkers of America
stilearning – at 11:46

Once again, thanks anon_22

ranchgirl – at 21:11

Anon_22 - Thank you for attending that meeting, speaking up, and for starting this thread. I think you are especially on target in your last few paragraphs above. My “connection” with our local dept of health began with an inquiry call to determine of there were any upcoming seminars on pandemic preparedness. None. But…that opened the door for further discussion. Last week, I had two very lengthy discussions within which I demonstrated that I was fairly up to date on what was going on with the current H5N1 situation, which in turn seemed to open the door for them to share more “insider” information…because as you said he wasn’t worried about freaking me out. Our county is not really enthusiastic about telling the whole ugly story, but rather in feeding it to the public piecemeal. I offered to be part of their speakers bureau when they were ready to implement their public education and communication plan, and they seemed to be glad to hear that (as they recognize that when they do finally start telling the whole story, we will be at Level 4–5 and they’ll need to get the word out as quickly as possible and will need lots of informed speakers to help them do so.)

On a similar but separate note, I offered, and they took me up on it, to teach PP classes for our local Red Cross. They sent me the official powerpoint slide…vanilla was the flavor, of course. I edited it to include more up-to-date factual information, and to include the spice (i.e. current CFR, pending tests results in Indonesia, etc.) as well as the WHO map of the countries affected. I sent it back to them with my revisions holding my breath that they would approve the revised version, but anticipating that they would say no, we have to stick to the bland vanilla version. Much to my surprise, they emailed me today saying that they thought the updates and additions were good, and to run with it.

So….I guess my message is to concur with anon_22…let your local DOH, Red Cross, County Commission, Chamber of Commerce, etc. etc. know that you are available to speak, teach, explain, guide, and support any public education that they are willing to organize or endorse. Sooner or later, they will need you. My only hesitation is this: when someone in the audience asks for my “credentials” or what makes me qualified to be making this presentation, I really have no valid tag line to fall back on other than I am an avid fluwikian!

Average Concerned Mom – at 21:38

Ranchgirl — good for you! As for your credentials — simple — you are an Informed Citizen Who Reads and Thinks!

22 September 2006

anon_22 – at 00:00

ranchgirl,

Well done! Thanks and keep us posted!

stilearning – at 02:06

You go girl!

anonymous – at 02:35
 Every little step I take…
FloridaGirlat 06:17

Anon_22,

I am fortunate in that I have access to the physicians at my hospital. I set up a presentation for them by the Public Health Department. This got them talking. I told them then… THEY were the ones that were going to have to make those tough decisions of who gets admitted to the hosp, who gets admtited the the ATS, and who goes home (homecare). They would also be responsible for deciding who gets the ventillators.

While they may have known this. I do not think anyone has put it to them in quite the black and white version.

My last question to them was: “Wouldn’t you rather set the triage criteria now in corporation with the public health dept. the hosptial ER staff, and the community leaders…. rather than wait until the last minute? Using no guidelines, and running the risk of ramifications that we cannot even imagine.”

So the stage is set….

23 September 2006

anon_22 – at 20:54

FloridaGirl,

Thank you. I trust that you will keep those contacts open. They will need you if TSHTF.

Ranchgirl – at 21:15

Had an interesting conversation yesterday with our Red Cross coordinator. He met with the DOH, and they told him that they were probably going to really rely on RC to do much of the public education because they simply didn’t have the resources. So…since the RC is relying on me to teach them, looks like I may find myself teaching lots and lots of classes when the time comes. The big question was when is it the right time. They (RC) said that if I wanted to go ahead and contact groups and organizations to schedule classes I was free to do so. So I offered to put together a simply one-page flyer to promte attendence to 8 specific sessions that I will use to promote. They said they would review it, add the RC logo, and let me run with it.

My granddaddy always used to say, “You’d better watch what you wish for honey…it just might come true!” I look at this as a golden opportunity to promote PFAW and pass out lots of red ribbons!

mj – at 21:31

Ranchgirl, regarding your credentials - you are a member of an non-profit international pandemic think tank - fluwikie. It was on another thread, and worded a bit better, but the idea is there. I remember the word oicologist - I told folks that was what I was at one point when I was younger. It means housewife, but sounded so good and they weren’t willing to admit they didn’t know what it was. I said an oicologist works with personnel, budget, procurment, housing, maitenance, etc… Here on fluwikie, this is the hivemind, working like a think tank. People on here know more than the average soul. If they want credintials, give it to them, and go on with teaching. You are an honored member here. Use it. Spread the word.

24 September 2006

lugon – at 04:48

Resilience is the bigger arm to the smaller arm which would be stocking up in order to SIP.

So BUMP.

Goju – at 09:28

You guys are terrific. You are the leaders of the new awakening. Stay on message…

Its spreading.

Its gone from 50% to 80 % fatal.

Its killing our kids.

There is no vaccine.

There are not enough anti virals.

The only solution is SIP and let the wave pass over as you would on the beach.

Great work going on here. Even if One person is in the audience… that will be one person less at your door when the time comes.

Path Forward – at 11:55

Note to Florida Girl:

Your state epidemiologist, John Middaugh, was one of the attendees at the Ethical and Legal Considerations in Mitigating Pandemic Disease meeting in D.C. last week. Seemed very interested and well-informed about pandemic flu issues.

To all: here is a link which has several terrific contact lists for officials, in every state and territory, involved in AI and PI planning. It includes names, titles, phone numbers, and email addresses.

http://tinyurl.com/nrzns

DemFromCTat 12:46

here’s another:

http://www.cste.org/members/state_and_territorial_epi.asp

and click on “state epidemiologists” in the upper R corner.

FloridaGirlat 13:14

Thank you Path Forward,

In Florida, We have some very good people coordinating the local, county, and city pandemic response plans. The plans are managed by individuals, much like Fluwiki. (up to a certain level).

Responsibility to maintain those local pages remains with the local public health departments.

Regionally, there are very good people guiding the response plan(s) that will meet the needs of the community.

Like patient care… It is indivualized.

The pandemic plans are MUCH different than the bioterror, or hurricane plans, however, they insist on educating about these together. I expect they do not want anyone to lose sight of what we have already accomplished….

(kinda like higher math…. it builds on previous understanding, but has nothing to do with the present concept.)

:)

DemFromCTat 22:49

BUMP

26 September 2006

anon_22 – at 21:05
seacoast – at 21:43

I went in and talked to my principal today armed with infomation on the front page of our Department of Education’s website with several headlines about using schools as hospitals because they have bathrooms, kitchens for making food, and places to set up beds. They also had infomation about closing schools if need be, and lots of information about meetings superintendents and regional school planners had attended this summer. There was a FAQ link and many AF links. I made copies and passed out the stuff off the DOE web site to some of my fellow employees and it caught everyone’s attention big time because it was actually from the DOE.

This was my second trip in to talk with this great principal, but I was surprised to learn she did not know about the meetings going on or that the schools had plans. That tells me that this seems to be happening in a vacuum and the information is not getting out to the people who need to know…they seem to be getting things in place (sort of) but it is all extremely quiet.

I told her that i had closed the door of my classroom last March and told all my kids to go home and tell their parents to prep. and gave them the Govt. Pandemic Plan. and she did not fire me on the spot. I told her I figured it was alright because it was put out by the govt. to the people.

This is a beginning and I feel better for having done something to inform peole today.

tjclaw1 – at 22:24

I have volunteered and been trained for the Strategic National Stockpile emergency medication dispensing program through our local health dept. The person in charge of emergency preparedness is a friend of mine and I’m trying to help her recruit volunteers. This enables me to keep my ear to the ground. She has recorded public service announcements but has yet to hear one played, and has placed half-page announcements in our local newspaper with no response. I have gotten a few people to volunteer by talking directly to them. Although this plan is broader than pandemic flu, it is a start.

27 September 2006

Ranchgirl – at 00:05

MJ - thanks for the words of encouragement! Heading out early tomorrow morning for an all day seminar on pandemic preparedness for businesses at the Indian River CC. They have over 120 people signed up (at $25/person). Should be a subject rich environment within which to plant lots of seeds…ask lots of pertinent questions (especially about the latest cluster in Indonesia), and gather email addresses from those in attendence. I’m excited! But now, it’s off to bed for this one. Night all.

seacoast – at 07:57

bump

anon_22 – at 11:31

I wrote up this thread the evening before I was supposed to give a presentation on the Flu Wiki at the UPMC Center for Biosecurity. Writing it helped consolidate my viewpoint about citizen engagement, so I used that as the theme for my talk. How the internet has made it possible to harness the creativity and knowledge of a diverse group of people from different backgrounds and locales, and how individual with non-traditional credentials may have a good deal to offer if we only know how to connect with them.

I was then invited to work with them in a) Working Group on Citizen Engagement in Health Emergency Planning, and b) ‘Citizen Engagement in Emergency Planning for a Flu Pandemic’, a National Academies Disasters Roundtable Workshop in Washington, DC in October.

It was totally unexpected. I thought about it for upwards of 2 minutes and decided that these activities are absolutely what we want to support and be engaged in.

I’m not sure where all this is going to take me, but I’m taking my inspiration from Goju and everyone else, and just go and do my best.

tjclaw1 – at 11:53

Annon-22, I agree that engaging citizens in emergency preparedness is a good idea - from your link, this is what I was trained for:

“WHAT STILL NEEDS TO BE ACCOMPLISHED—THE TOP 10 REMAINING CHALLENGES

Improve distribution of the Strategic National Stockpile (SNS). Development of protocols for the request, receipt, breakdown, transport, and distribution of the SNS is the responsibility of each state, and capabilities vary widely. A 2005 report from Trust for America’s Health (TFAH) revealed that only 7 states and 2 cities were recognized by the CDC as adequately prepared to distribute contents of the SNS in the event of an emergency [10]. The SNS is not much good if it can’t be accessed when needed. States and major cities must make this a priority.”

No, I have no medical training (law degree, actually), but I can certainly help with forms, screening, gatekeeping, etc. Our county has 36,000 residents and if we had to distribute medication/vaccines in 48 to 72 hours, we need a lot of volunteers. There were 27 at my training session, and I’ve recruited a few more for the next training session. We need more medical people though, and most nurses I’ve talked to would be called into the hospital in the event of a medical emergency. I understand our Governor may sign a bill allowing retired nurses to volunteer and dispense medication/vaccines. I was amazed at how well organized our county emergency preparedness person and her staff is - I think our county could be a model for the country.

Thanks for your suggestions. Has anybody had any discussions with any Congressmen/women, or Senators? They should be telling people to prepare and, IMHO, they have a responsibility to do so.

30 October 2006

anon_22 – at 23:28

It’s only been 6 weeks since I wrote the beginning of this thread, but I’m gratified that so much has happened and so many people on this forum have gone out and started connecting with their local community and leaders.

We all know that this is only the beginning, there’s still a lot that needs to be done, probably a lot more angst along the way. But the important thing is getting started, in whatever way that is appropriate in your neighbourhood or your personal circumstances.

Armed with enough knowledge to start making a difference, ready to come back here and share and learn, many folks on this forum have the potential to be significant leaders. Remember, though, the better you get at helping build community resilience, the more likely you will be asked to do more.

If and when, because of the ‘expertise’ that you have exhibited, you suddenly find yourself being asked to help make some decision that might mean life and death to others, or that you are suddenly out of your depth, do not be afraid to say “I don’t know”. Say that, but also say, “let me see if we can find that answer from someone/somewhere else”, or “I’m not sure what the answer is, but this is what I think, and here’s why”, rather than freak out and run away from the responsibility.

As someone in the IOM meeting said the other day, it’s easy to make decisions when the evidence is clear. We don’t need leaders to do that. We need leaders who can make decisions despite uncertainties and lack of information. If a pandemic happens, we will need lots of leaders. I have a feeling that this forum is good nurturing ground for them.

31 October 2006

seacoast – at 18:11

BUMP

01 November 2006

bump please READ – at 04:48
bump please READ – at 10:25
Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.PublicParticipationInCommunityResilience
Page last modified on November 01, 2006, at 10:25 AM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Indiana Preppers

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Indiana Preppers

25 March 2006

ricewiki – at 09:27

Is anyone here from Indiana? Do you know anyone else prepping in your area?

Tharlan – at 11:20

I’m from Indiana. The only other person I know who is prepping is my sister.

16 May 2006

Lutosh – at 13:10

Published: May 16, 2006 12:05 pm

Dead birds in Odon area worry veterinarian

By Patricia Morrison, News Editor

ODON — An Odon veterinarian wasn’t sure what to make of all the dead birds on his land, but when more were found Monday on other area farms he began to worry.

“At first I thought it was West Nile Virus or bird flu,” Edward Borter, DVM, said. He was especially concerned as the county recently received confirmation of its first human case of West Nile.

The birds in question are Purple Martins, which are dying in “massive numbers,” according to Borter.

On his farm alone he found dead birds around all of his seven boxes, each of which contain 12 houses for the birds.

On opening one of the boxes from which a dead bird was protruding, Borter found 11 dead Martins in the box. He also found the eggs had been pushed out of the nests.

Borter was able to catch a live sick bird and plans on sending it to Purdue University or the state Board of Health to try and determine the problem.

Purple Martins are normally not overly affected by West Nile, according to Borter. After studying the dead birds, he has concluded they are young birds that have migrated to the area and he thinks they may have starved to death.

“The rain and cold have left us with no insects,” he said. “Martins can eat up to 2,000 insects a day.”

Their main meal is mosquitoes, according to Borter, and their deaths may make this year’s West Nile Virus problem even greater.

He is reminding residents to wear gloves when dealing with dead birds and to place them in a container if they are bringing them to there veterinarian or the local health department for examination.

http://www.washtimesherald.com/local/local_story_136120558.html

Leslie – at 13:16

Michiana prepper. One foot in Indiana, the other in Michigan. I know of no other local preppers.

Lutosh – at 13:33

Leslie I don’t know anyone that is prepping either. I have tried to talk with freinds, family, and neighbors but I get THAT LOOK when ever I bring it up. I will just keep on prepping, watching, and waiting.

Leslie – at 15:40

The look that really gets to me is the one that says “Bird Flu???”

Ruth – at 15:41

I know that look very well.

Leslie – at 15:46

I have friends that have NO idea what I am talking about.

mom11 – at 16:00

Hi!

My #1 daughter and her 5 year old, live in Ft. Wayne. We lived there before ending up here. I think Ft. Wayne is starting to really prepare. #1 said that there are plans to house 30,000 patients at the Memorial Coliseum. The school districts are looking at TV school and there is talk the different districts would somehow start a school co-op, to pay.

My daughter and grandaughter go to a lung specialist and he is putting away medications for his patients. He has apparently ordered it, little by little, himself. He does deal with the sickest “lung” patients.

This is far more, than I’m seeing here, in KY. They plan to send the nursing home residents “home” for several days, to free up hospital beds. Several days? This flu could be around for 18 months! I don’t see any plan here! You can’t send nursing home residents “home.” That is their home and they may already be infected or sick. If family memebers would take them “home,” they also, could be infected. Who would take care of them? These patients already need nursing care.

We were told they didn’t expect the wild birds to spread bf to the domestic flocks here. At our summit, no one gave any info. on what signs to look for if your birds were becoming sick, nor what to do if they were. I have contacted our State Agriculture Dept. and they don’t seem to believe all this. They have offered to send the State Vet for a visit. Back to the Amish!

We were told the virus could live “hours.” Well I guess that is accurate…six days computes into 144 hours. However, I believe that the average person leaving that summit would feel that several hours after an infected person touched something, it would be free and clear of the virus.

We were told to put away several days worth of food and maybe a bottle of antibacterial handwash.

My daughter did say she would love “preps” for Christmas. I’m not sure what my little grandaughter will think of the powdered sour cream and cans of gatorade, wrapped in Christmas paper. TeeHee! Once my daughter starts doing some prepping, I’m sure her close friends will also. You know how that works…”the pack mentality!”

I really miss Indiana!!

Leslie – at 16:17

About a million years ago I was an ICU nurse at Methodist, and later at Wishard. The units were always full. To make room for a new patient, we would transfer someone out. That was back in the good ol days. IMHO there is no way any Indiana hospital that I know of could handle a surge of ten ICU patients, over and above the normal ICU load. We run too thin as it is. I don’t think Indiana is any different than most other states. It keeps me up at night.

MajDadat 20:55

Leslie in the southern part of the State (Vandanberg County). They are just now starting to have meetings. No one in the meetings is really taking it seriously kind of going through the motions. I am the only one prepared that I know of and you are right you can not talk about as every one thinks you are nuts. I will protect my family as that is all I can do.

17 May 2006

Mother of Five – at 01:15

Hi 1Mother, after our late evening connection the other night about our children, I think it’s interesting to find out that your #1 daughter lives only four hours from me! I feel kind of uncomfortable getting too detailed, I don’t want to name my small town, sorry. However, next week I am meeting with the local optomists (sp?) club and they have invited myself and the state Board of Health reps for our town to this luncheon to discuss questions about BF. They were very happy to come, I understand. I guess my job, according to my friend that invited me, is to ask the pertinent questions and not let them blow off the situation and pat the club on the head and say everything will be fine.

It’s good to see Indiana on the fluwikie list! The LDS church has a storehouse/cannery in Indianapolis where you can go to drypack and purchase supplies in bulk. If you choose to try it, you gotta try the “Mormon potatoes” my friends call them. They are dried potato pearls and taste heavenly. I have never liked instant potatoes, but these are terrific.

Mother of Five – at 01:22

Oops, my bad—I must be more tired than I realized. Mom11, I am sorry for mistaking your post to be from 1Mother. Just ignore me tonight :)

cinnamongirl – at 11:08

I was beginning to think I was the only person in this state who was paying attention! Having been on the receiving end of blank stares and rolling eyes when the subject is brought up, I have given up on Flu Evangelism. In this area people seem to eat for entertainment …there are some really big citizens ‘round here. Now, it would seem that with the number one recreational activity about to undergo a bit of realignment if this thing goes H2H, there would be mad prepping. Not so. Grocery carts are still full of Cokes, Ding-Dongs, Suzie Qs and HOHOs. Frozen pizza and hot dogs appear to be the mainstay of dinner items. There may be two or three days worth of food in most carts I have seen. Very little in the way of dried or canned foods are being purchased, most of it needing freezing or refrigeration. In my opinion there are two ways this could go. First, there could be mass starvation if we are without food delivery for a while. Conversely, when it is all over we may find that those who emerge from the ashes are bigger than before and survived on a stash of Little Debbie’s and Pepsi.

Leslie – at 14:29

cinnamongirl- I agree. There may be a lot of farm land in Indiana, but frozen pizza rules the common grocery cart. I have started picking up some small exercise toys (a mat, hand weights, bosu ball, etc.) as a part of my prep supplies; I feel they are as important as granola bars.

Leslie – at 14:49

Purdue had a state meeting a few months ago, not that I could have attended, it was by invitation only, but, if anyone in Indiana hears of something, please post it here, if I can go, I will.

cinnamongirl – at 15:33

Leslie- Good thinking! If we are all at home for 18 months, we had better be exercising something more than our mouth muscles. At the end of the tunnel, if we survive, we will need to be as fit as possible in order to get on with life and do what needs to be done. As for the Indiana specific news, I haven’t heard of any more private or public meetings however I keep tabs on what is happening by signing up for Google news alerts “Indiana Pandemic Flu”, I usually get about three or so emails a day. Hope this helps!

cinnamongirl – at 15:38

Oops, I forgot to add this url for Indiana’s flu website. http://tinyurl.com/lukwv

19 May 2006

cinnamongirl – at 09:34

“Hoosier business executives will gather Thursday morning in Carmel to hear from experts and discuss how Indiana companies can prepare for a possible bird flu pandemic.” Not a lot of info yet, the little voice over states that businesses are aware and “nobody is laughing anymore” when the subject is brought up. This is a step in the right direction, hopefully we will hear the results of the meeting as well.

cinnamongirl – at 09:35

“Hoosier business executives will gather Thursday morning in Carmel to hear from experts and discuss how Indiana companies can prepare for a possible bird flu pandemic.” Not a lot of info yet, the little voice over states that businesses are aware and “nobody is laughing anymore” when the subject is brought up. This is a step in the right direction, hopefully we will hear the results of the meeting as well. http://tinyurl.com/lxkr2

cinnamongirl – at 09:38

Oh boy, sorry about the double post! Thought I caught it before I sent it sans URL. Can one of the Mods delete this?

tharlan – at 10:47

I took my daughter to school this morning and we stopped by the gas station to pick up coffee. On my way out, the South Bend Tribune caught my eye. At the top of the page in big bold letters read, Officials: Deadly flu pandemic inevitable. I bought a copy.

I didn’t read the story because I gave the newspaper to my daughter to take for Current Events today. I figured I would check out the story online but the newspaper hasn’t been updated online yet.

Link to newspaper image.

tharlan – at 10:50

After clicking on the image I see that the story is available, but only to those with an online subscription. I’ll have to read it when my daughter gets home.

MajDadat 19:27

To all the Preppers in Indiana, you can go to WWW.gfs.com to see if you have a GFS store in your area. This store carries canned meat, (Hamburger, Pot Roast, Chicken etc) and lots of good stuff for the pantry. We have one in the south of the State and I visit it weekly then I go to Sam’s to fill it out.

20 May 2006

Mother of Five – at 01:53

This coming Tuesday, I am attending a luncheon of the Optimists club. They have invited members from the local Board of Health to ask pertinent question re BF. I have been invited to attend to be the one to ask the “pertinent” questions. I am hoping to gain some info. about our community preps at this luncheon.

02 June 2006

anonymous – at 11:27

We are from a small town located in south central Indiana,North Vernon to be exact. My family has been preparing for a few months now,and have a few friends and family doing the same. Most people here seem to think all will be well and won’t be that serious.I hope they are right,BUT I would rather be ready and self sufficient than be sorry.The only way to assure you have what you need is to rely on noone but yourself!As with most families these days we live check to check and money is always tight,you have to ask yourself what is more important…that new cd you’ve been wanting or perhaps necessaties such as food and water.Ways of saving…use coupons if you can,watch for what is on sale at your local grocery stores,alot of towns have dollar chain stores you can get spices,vitamins and alot of your everyday needs there.I hope there are more people in our area out there, it is a hard subject to adress.P.S.Remember to rinse out you milk jugs and store them. Good luck to all.

21 June 2006

cinnamongirl – at 12:08

On Tuesday the Fort Wayne-Allen County Department of Health organized a pandemic flu drill. This is one volunteers experience: http://tinyurl.com/k2wcf Any comments?

22 June 2006

cinnamongirl – at 10:05

“Health commissioner says drill was a success”

The beautiful thing about drills is the ability to find weaknesses in areas that may never have been thought of and to identify problems not previously considered. As stated in the article, “Some questions or issues still needing attention include:

♦How many doctors in the community would be available to work at a mass-treatment center at Memorial Coliseum and for how long?

♦Does the coliseum have the capability for patients who can’t breathe on their own to use ventilators?

♦A communications system to connect patients with their families outside the treatment center should be developed.(A very good point in my opinion, the stress of pandemic along with people being reported missing when they are actually at a facility could quickly overwhelm the systems in place.)

♦What are the costs that state or federal government entities will cover? For example, if Citilink is used to transport patients, who will pay?

♦What protective gear, particularly type of masks, should health workers use?

♦On any given day, what is the average number of open beds available in Fort Wayne hospitals?

♦How will media receive regular updates, and what will be the availability of key health and safety officials to media?”

http://tinyurl.com/hgegz

28 June 2006

jane – at 11:14

The newsnow headline site had a story today (from WISH Tv yesterday) about a pandemic conference in Marion County. Health department official Virginia Cain said the county is required to supply prophylactic medication to all residents within 48 hours. There are 800,000 residents, and the Health Dept. is planning to involve all kinds of local ngo’s in the plan. BUT she called the medication a vaccine! There was no mention of the county having a supply of any med nor the fact that there can’t be a supply of actual VACCINE for ANY residents (let alone ALL) for 9–12 months after pandemic starts. If we’re lucky.

marion county

Maybe if a few people called the reporter, Anthony Ponce, he would do a follow-up story?

29 June 2006

L in Indiana – at 07:04

Jane- Thanks for keeping an eye on Indiana. My daughter had surgery last week and I noticed your post on the news thread. Health-science reporters really need a better understanding of “prophylactic medication” and “vaccine”. I live in the northern part of the state and several months ago when we had our summit, the local write-up just seemed to miss the point. There was a quote from one community leader, then a quote from another, but never any “real” information regarding pandemic influenza and not one word on individual preparedness.

cinnamongirl – at 09:15

Covering Greene County Wednesday, June 28, 2006

Local News

Behind-the-scenes preparedness work already under way By Nick Schneider, ASSIGNMENTS EDITOR

Behind-the-scene preparedness was stressed by panelists and presenters who participated in Greene County’s second of four scheduled pandemic avian or bird flu informational meetings staged Tuesday night at the First Baptist Church in Bloomfield.

A sparse crowd was on hand to hear a group of representatives from a host of local health care and emergency preparedness organizations tell what they are doing to prepare for an anticipated pandemic outbreak in the United States - and more importantly, here in the county.

Representatives from the Greene County Health Department, Greene County General Hospital, Greene County Home Health Care, Purdue Extension Service, Greene County Emergency Management Agency, Greene County Tobacco Prevention and Cessation Partnership and the Indiana State Department of Health-Office of Preparedness and Emergency Response are working together to put a “common sense” plan in place to ensure the safety of local residents, according to Andrea Alltop, who serves as Greene County Public Health Preparedness Coordinator.

“We hope through this that it will help prepare individuals, families, workplaces,” she said.

Other informal informational town hall meetings are slated for July 18 at Eastern Greene High School cafeteria and on Aug.17 at the Jasonville Senior Citizen Center. Both meetings will start at 7 p.m.

A slide presentation compiled by Greene County Health Officer Dr. Fred Ridge M.D. was moderated by Greene County Public Health Nurse Marilyn Crays.

Dr. Ridge was unable to attend Tuesday’s meeting.

Crays noted that an estimated 150 million people died worldwide during Spanish flu outbreak of 1918–1919 - more people than any other illness in the history of the world during a similar time period. The disease took about six months to spread all the way around the world and had death rate 25 times higher than the previous epidemics.

The majority of people who died during that pandemic were in the 18- to 40- year-old range.

Other similar influenza epidemics have occurred in the 20th century on a small scale - the Asian flu in 1957–1958 and the Hong Kong flu in 1968–1969. There was also the Swine flu scare in 1976 and 1977.

In a typical flu-season about 36,000 die in the United States alone, she said.

Crays said currently world health professionals are concerned that the continued spread of a highly pathogenic avian H5N1 type virus now going across eastern Asia and other countries represents a significant threat to human health. That’s the reason there is a global alert and a pandemic outbreak is expected.

“It’s going to occur. We just don’t know when,” Crays stated.

The H5N1 virus has raised concerns about a potential human pandemic because:

€ It is especially virulent and causes a severe infection.

€ It is generally spread by migratory birds like geese and ducks.

€ It can be transmitted from birds to mammals and in some limited circumstances to humans.

€ Like other influenza viruses, it continues to evolve.

Since 2003, a growing number of human H5N1 cases have been reported in Azerbaijan, Cambodia, China, Djibouti, Egypt, Indonesia, Iraq, Thailand, Turkey, and Vietnam. More than half of the people infected with the H5N1 virus have died. Most of these cases are all believed to have been caused by exposure to infected poultry. There has been no sustained human-to-human transmission of the disease, she said.

The county health nurse said that pandemics are classed in six phases and she believes the United States is in the third phase or the “alert” period at the present time.

Public health experts predict that a pandemic-type avian or bird flu outbreak could claim 100 million lives in a worst case scenario. The disease was first reported in 2003 and there have been 115 confirmed human cases and 55 deaths to date.

Crays stressed there have been no substantiated human to human transmission of the virus.

Greene County General Hospital’s director of infection control Cheryl Corbin may have had the best advice of the night when she said “Don’t panic, use common sense.”

She stressed the importance of proper hand washing techniques and sanitizing with a product that is 98 percent alcohol based.

Corbin added, “We need to teach people to wash their hands when they are not visibly soiled.”

The rinsing of fruits and vegetables purchased at the store before consumption is also very important, she said.

Corbin also noted that the bird flu or avian flu is not an air-borne virus, but rather a droplet virus that falls to the ground in about three feet. Thus, it is spread by droplet contact so covering your mouth when coughing or nose when sneezing is essential to stop its spread.

Greene County General Hospital assistant administrator Randy Padgett said behind the scenes planning and purchasing of supplies is already underway at his facility.

Padgett admitted that staffing will be a problem if the pandemic hits as expected, but the hospital has contingency plans to be able to function and provide essential health care services.

He pointed out that a large scale outbreak could require the hospital to establish and off-site medical facility and also to re-configure the current 25-bed hospital to accommodate many more patients. The facility formerly was certified for 76-beds and Padgett said plans are in place to expand the present capacity if the outbreak strikes.

The hospital spokesman also noted that the virus hits the patient’s respiratory system hard and many times ventilators are required to be used in treatment. GCGH does not use ventilators on a frequent basis and probably only has two or three of the units in the hospital.

As a precaution, he said the hospital has begun to stockpile a quantity of disposable respirators that can aid patients, if they are stricken with pneumonia-like symptoms associated with the pandemic flu.

“There’s a lot of things going on behind the scenes to prepare,” Padgett said. “If this event does break out, its’ going to create some great challenges for us.”

Greene County Emergency Management Director Roger Axe offered a host of common sense tips in warding off the disease including:

€ Maintain a healthy lifestyle. Exercise and get proper amounts of rest to keep your immune system functioning.

€ Drink at least eight glasses of water daily to also enhance your immune system.

€ Start to stockpile over-the-counter medications and toilet paper - accumulating a 30-day supply if possible.

€ Observe good sanitation practices like hand washing and sanitizing when coming in contact with items that are touched by the hands like door knobs and shopping carts. Axe said he will soon be encouraging Greene County offices to have hand sanitizers available for employees.

Most importantly, Axe noted, “If you are sick, stay at home. Don’t go out and infect other people.”

One of the presenters was Ed Borter, who operates the Odon Veterinary Clinic. Borter serves as a volunteer on an Indiana Board of Animal Heath Surveillance Emergency Response Team (ASERT).

The ASERT teams are called upon in the event of an animal health emergency in the state. The ASERT teams consist of veterinarians from across the state, equipped with technology and knowledge to respond in any type of animal health emergency, be it a natural or a bio-terrorism disaster. Sixty veterinarians have volunteered to become a part of the ASERT program. These veterinarians are divided into 11 teams, grouped by their geographic locations throughout the state. Teams are trained in all the aspects of emergency response including incident command and agriculture bio-terrorism.

The group is active in tracking all types of livestock diseases.

“As a Board of Animal Health, we are well organized,” Borter stated.

Borter said poultry, horses and swine are especially susceptible to flu-like diseases and mutation of the viruses makes it difficult to treat with vaccines.

He said if the pandemic flu strikes as experts predict, then local flocks of turkeys and other poultry would likely be exterminated in a very short period of time to assist in stopping the spread of the virus.

Borter said testing for H5N1 virus is already underway at area processing plants like Perdue Farms in Washington.

“We’re making plans to identify every farm so if a cow or something comes up with a problem, then within 48 hours we’ll know exactly where it’s at or where it’s gone,” he said. “That’s one of the things the veterinary profession is doing to have this under control.”

Borter in ‘tongue and cheek’ fashion drew plenty of laughs when he looked at the other panelists and noted, “You guys have all scared me to death. I’m going to use some common sense. I’m not going to panic, but I going to Jim Ray Cave (if the pandemic flu hits) and I hope none of you know where it’s at. I don’t want you to come to Jim Ray Cave (near Ridgeport) - stay away from there.”

cinnamongirl – at 09:17

Oops, forgot to post the url for the above post: Here you go: http://tinyurl.com/ztges They acutally offered some practical advice at this meeting, stockpiling meds and all. It’s a good sign that this is being taken seriously.

26 July 2006

bk – at 16:48

Wow, there are other northern hoosiers that are prepping! North central IN here….like Leslie said “one foot in MI and one in Indiana.

27 July 2006

mj – at 09:53

I was beginning to wonder if there were other Hoosiers prepping. Have felt a bit like the only prepping “nut case” in the state. I’m in Howard County. Here most folks thing “It’s just the flu”, no biggie. Any other Hoosiers around? Where are you located?

31 July 2006

Jim – at 20:09

I’m from Grant County, right next to mj. Only 2 friends have any real concern about BF, and even they are not prepping very seriously yet. Other family and friends think I’m overreacting, but as an old Boy Scout, “Be Prepared”!

01 August 2006

bk – at 19:04

Hi Jim, are the Amish in your area yet? They seem to be spreading to the south and east of my area. They are great source for preps. Lots of bulk food stores and old school hardware items and methods in use around here (north central IN).

02 August 2006

MaMaat 00:31

bump

03 August 2006

Jim – at 23:46

bk Not yet, but I go to Shipshewana each spring for the trout season opener and visit Yoder’s and a bulk food store (can’t remember the name) on the East side of 5 in Shipshewana. I’m about 1.5 hours south of Shipshewana. They have a unique way of life, and I’m sure will be well prepared no matter what happens. Whereabouts are you located? Jim

04 August 2006

maryrose – at 05:33

I’m in Hamilton County, northeast of Indianapolis. I’ve convinced a couple of people to prep; unfortunately, not my extended family. They think I’ve gone “over the top.” Any preppers in my area?

L in Indiana – at 06:20

Hi all! My air-conditioning went out during the worst of the heat this week. My house was roasting. As part of my preps I had purchased three inflatable beds for overflow guests. I inflated them and slept on the floor of the basement with my kids. I have to say that it really wasn’t that bad. I am guessing that the air space of the mattress conducted the cool from the concrete floor, or maybe it was just the cooler temps in the basement, but it seemed like the bed itself was cooler than a traditional bed. Whatever the reason, it is good to remember if we lose electricity when TSHTF. My beds are designed for camping and inflate via a rechargeable battery device. One of the beds has been inflated for several months now and is still firm enough to sleep on.

06 August 2006

Jim – at 00:03

bump

bk – at 21:17

Jim, I’m west of Shipshewana about 40 minutes. I know the exact store you’re talking about, I can’t remember the name either but have done plenty of buying there.

11 August 2006

anonymous – at 14:43

bump

24 August 2006

Jim – at 23:31

bump

25 August 2006

mj – at 00:14

I went to Tipton County’s prep meeting (one or two) on Tuesday night. They said prep for six weeks. Such an improvement on “3days”. Only about 50 people there. They were having another one tonite held further south, but I had to work. The main speaker was from the IN board of Health. She was good.

mj – at 00:43

I have had a good week. Got some more prepping done. And got my mental attitude improved a lot. I was so concerned that no one in my area/life was prepping. I started talking more, one on one, with friends about a month ago. Two friends had the deer in the headlights/don’t tell me attitude and I dropped it with them, but talked and gave websites to others. This week each person I’d talked to spoke up and said they were prepping. And the two “leave me alone” friends, well I tried again with one, and she said she didn’t remember the previous talk (she’d had a bad couple of months.) She heard me this time and is prepping. The other one was taken in hand by another friend I spoke with and is prepping. The real chuckle came when one person went to spread the word to their family and was politely told “look here” and there were two closets full of preps already. There are more preppers out there than we knew. Each one teach one. Friends at work are listening more now too. Helps that TV has “ads” about being prepared. Even had friends go with me to a prep meeting - and one had son and dnl show up too. Dnl heard the message loud and clear and is onboard now too. Wheeee! Lots of negative news out there, but nice to have good news sometimes. Best news of all was my daughter appears to have heard me and is now prepping. I hope we all have time.

anonymous – at 12:10

mj- I am glad things are better for you. This week I am getting two of my kids settled at IUB and bringing them many of my older preps (college kids eat anything). I don’t usually eat a lot of canned foods and it is hard to rotate in canned goods when we have fresh corn on the cob and tomatoes locally.

L in Indiana – at 12:11

Sorry that was me, I forgot I am using a hotel computer.

bk – at 12:32

I’m starting to see prime time commercials put out by the IN Dept. of Health recommending individual pandemic flu preps. Saw it for the first time last night on NBC.

26 August 2006

Mother of Five – at 00:41

Signing in from Vigo County, just east of the Illinois border, about the middle (North/South) of the state. I loved the posts about the hoho’s and twinkies, and the really large Hoosiers! Eating out does seem to be the number 1 form of entertainment! Probably because there isn’t much else to do! It’s too hot in the summer to be outside unless you’re in water (and there’s very few lakes) and then in the winter there’s not enough snow to have winter sports. We’ve only lived here for six years—originally hailing from MI—and my family has thrived. However, there are a few shortcomings that I am comfortable with because the benefits have outweighed the negative factors :) And, I know a few other preppers, but not many.

maryrose – at 08:00

I wrote to Indiana’s senators, the governor and some others to ask them to demand the release of the sequences from CDC. Senator Lugar was the only one who responded with a personal letter as opposed to one of those form letters . . .”We received your mail” and that’s it. Senator Lugar contacted the CDC about the issue (as he said he would) and then wrote me back, including the correspondence he received from the CDC. Go Senator Lugar!

Barbie in the Burbs – at 13:32

Just poking my head out to say - another Hoosier prepper here. Have some family on board & 2 friends so far. Have made comments//statement to provide opportunities for others to ask questions (especially last spring during tornado season), but no one took the bait. LOL! I’ve also been glad to see the PSA’s on pandemic prep! Prep On!!!! lol

29 August 2006

Jim – at 00:33

bttt

31 August 2006

bk – at 06:44

Jim, I access this forum from Flu Wiki. I see a few posts bumping this forum (bttt). Is this forum visible from someplace other than Fluwiki?

03 September 2006

Jim – at 17:48

bk-

Jim – at 17:50

bk not sure what you mean

18 September 2006

MaMaat 23:20

Thought you guys would like to know…

Indiana News Centre- Channel 24- “With flu season nearing Allen County health officials have their guard up, but it’s not the typical flu that really concerns them.

During their board meeting Monday, health officials wanted to bring attention to the potential for a pandemic flu outbreak right here in Allen County…”

…”Even though no cases have been reported in the country, health officials say preparation is key.

“If we aren’t prepared as a public health department or as an individual or a family, we were warned. We’ve seen with Hurricane Katrina and the floods that resulted what happens when people don’t listen and heed those warnings to plan. We don’t want that in Allen County,” says Dr. Deborah McMahan, Allen County’s Health Commissioner.

The Health Department will hold a meeting at 6:30 Tuesday evening at Walb Memorial Union at IPFW to educate residents about the steps they should take if this type of outbreak occurs. This will be the first of five community forums you can take part in to make sure you and your family are prepared.”

http://www.indianasnewscenter.com/story.aspx?type=ln&NStoryID=3949

19 September 2006

bk – at 05:10

Jim, just curious what website you are posting from. I see that you are posting just to “bump” the topic to the top of a forum.

the web page I am posting from: http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.IndianaPreppers

25 September 2006

Jim – at 20:42

bk, please email me @ jarmstrong4 at indy dot rr dot com

28 September 2006

mj – at 23:04

Hey, Indiana preppers. I just saw my first Pandemic Billboard. As I was leaving work in Kokomo, I drove north on S Lafountain by Wendy’s. And there was a big as life billboard with just one question on it. “If there were an emergency, does your family have a plan?” And then it had “Ready.gov” !! Finally. I can’t decide whether to be happy they are finally getting to the general public, or worried that they think it’s time to. Any billboards where you are driving? I’m wondering if there are other varieties.

20 October 2006

debtrag – at 13:08

I went to the Tipton County Candidates forum last night. Senator Jeff Drozda presented himself and answered questions. He actually mentioned Pandemic Flu in part of his presentation. I can’t remember what he actually said because I was FLOORED. But he said something to the fact that he was working with and wanted to continue to work to keep state and county officials working together to be prepared.

PBQ – at 21:50

Hi mj, My sister lives in Kokomo and won’t prep untill I tell her that it is close to a pandemic. I’ve tried to tell her how foolish that would be but… she doesn’t like to rotate items…yada,yada,yada…I’m glad someone there is prepping and glad you have the billboard. What have you done for a water supply? I would think that, for your area, that would be a biggie. Thanks for letting me rant. I’ll get her to prep somehow.

mj – at 23:22

PBQ, you’re right about water. It’s been my biggest worry. When I first started thinking about all of this, the water equation blew me away. I could not cope with the idea.. so many gallons, times so many days equals.. - so didn’t. Then gradually worked out that a little at a time would get me there. Got a Berkey (used one overseas before so love ‘em) which will help. Lots of Wallyworld containers. Still working on it. See my profile for contact info. I work at one of the local hospitals. Maybe I know your sis and can put a bug in her ear. Email me if you want me to try. Sometimes hearing it from someone else works. I’ve been having lots of luck getting people to “hear” that there is such a thing as BF and pandemicflu. Just hope it’s in time. One neighbor I spoke with on the sixth is prepping now. She’s all excited about getting “one more can” etc. But I think the state is not getting prepped except for Ft Wayne. No signs here, except the billboard. How is it down your way?

22 October 2006

mother of five – at 23:51

Just this past Wednesday I went to a “pandemic lecture” at the ISU campus. The guest speaker, that said anything of value, was the head of well, what did she say? “Emergencies R’ Us” for our county. Her most important title to me was the head of homeland security for our county. Among other things, her job is to prepare our county for a pandemic. I heard her speak about last April and this time she was much more emphatic in her comments and didn’t pull any punches. She told these college students they needed to have supplies in their places of residence that they could stay there for six to eight weeks, etc. She didn’t say anything that I haven’t heard before, but the fact that she covered everything and was so firm and up-front about it surprised me.

I also understand that she was late because she had just come from a state-wide meeting for homeland security, emergency people in charge kind of meeting! Perhaps that’s why she was so firm. I suspect after coming from a meeting like that, that she may have been pretty freaked about things. Here in Indiana we have become surrounded by states that have had H5N1 cases in birds, low-path of course, but definitely still noteworthy. I am glad they’re continuing to have some meetings that continue to inform a small percentage of the public, one meeting at a time :)

01 November 2006

GMC – at 09:53

Hello! I live in the Salem area. I have been prepping for round a year now. I have spoken to some of my friends about the bird flu, but they think it is just all “blown- out”. They feel it isn’t going to happen. I tell them that it will happen sooner or later and that it is good to have some supplies on hand any way for emergencies.

I realise it is hard for most people around here to do any prepping since they are on fixed incomes. I sure hope they don’t look for the local churches to help, because I don’t think they are prepping them selves.

I live out in the country, so I can grow my garden and I have a pond if I had to resort to using the water in it. I know I will never be able to get all that I need, but I am sure trying my best until the bird flu gets here.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Why Influenza is a Winter Disease

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Why Influenza is a Winter Disease

30 October 2006

pablo escobar – at 21:24

I posted this on the CE flu site the other day, and thought that this might be helpful for discussion here…

From the same presentation I referenced the other day. It seems that the life span of influenza is much, much longer with dry humidity than high humidity.
According to the attached graph, this is the following data I have gleaned.
At a room temperatures of 27 - 29 C (80.6 - 84.2), the life span of influenza (as it relates to infecting mice) goes from 100% to 0% at the following humidities
Relative humidity 23% - It never drops to zero, and as a matter of fact, when the room is disturbed by a fan, at it’s lowest point, 22 hours later, at 24 hours, it goes up.
Relative humidity 48% - It drops to zero at 6 hours after introduction.
Relative humidity 89% - It drops to zero at 1 hour after introduction.
The implications of the graph, if accurate, are very clear. Influenza virii are more “spreadable” the lower the humidity. Therefore, during seasons where the humidity is low (either environmentally or artificially due to indoor heating), the relative infectivity of any flu laden individual (R0) becomes higher than if that same individual, with the same flu, was out and about during periods of high humidity.
Thus, Ro may not be an absolute function of any one virus’ genetic code, but may indeed have a high environmental component.
It may therefore mean, that one of the best means of reducing the risk of spread is to install humidifiers in all public facilities.

To reiterate. Flu is a winter disease because of low humidity and therefore increased infectivity of the sick, not because of some african swallow carrying coconuts.
www.publichealth.pitt.edu/supercourse/SupercoursePPT/21011-22001/21431.ppt

slide number 29? (Sorry, I do not know how to attach pictures here.)

and the discussion that followed…

http://www.curevents.com/vb/showthread.php?t=61783

the research seems to back up this premise

2004 study from Tokyo implying the same thing…

The dynamics of influenza viruses in relation to one meteorological factor, absolute humidity, was investigated. The number of influenza patients, absolute humidity, and isolation of influenza viruses were compared between Odate City the north and Akita City in central Akita Prefecture from 2001 to 2002. The results were as follows: 1) In both Odate and Akita cities, Influenza A (H1N1 and H3N2) and Influenza B (Victoria and Yamagata) viruses were isolated when absolute humidity ranged between 2.7 and 8.8 g/m3. 2) In Akita City in 2002, the influenza viruses were isolated in May (weeks 20 and 22), and the absolute humidity was below 9 g/m3, suggesting that the influenza season lasted until May in this year. 3) A correlation between absolute humidity and isolation of influenza viruses was observed, and the influenza prevalence may occur below 9 g/m3 of absolute humidity. 4) In Odate and Akita cities, the absolute humidity of 10 g/m3, a level at which 5% of influenza viruses can survive after six hours, was observed from January to June and October to December. 5) Influenza prevalence show differential occurrence by time and place. Therefore, further research is required to clarify the absolute humidity related to influenza prevalence

the CDC has in their emerging infectious disease publications this month, a very good article, basically saying, amoung other things, we’re screwed.

. In experiments that used homogeneous aerosolized influenza virus suspensions (mean diameter 6 ¦Ìm), virus infectivity (assessed by in vitro culture) at a fixed relative humidity undergoes an exponential decay; this decay is characterized by very low death rate constants, provided that the relative humidity was in the low range of 15%¨C40% (15,16). These results are consistent with those of an older study (admittedly performed in a more rudimentary manner) in which infectious influenza viruses in an aerosol could be demonstrated for up to 24 h by using infection in mice as a detection method, provided that the relative humidity was 17%−24% (17). In all these studies, the decay of virus infectivity increased rapidly at relative humidity >40%. The increased survival of influenza virus in aerosols at low relative humidity has been suggested as a factor that accounts for the seasonality of influenza (15,16). The sharply increased decay of infectivity at high humidity has also been observed for other enveloped viruses (e.g., measles virus); in contrast, exactly the opposite relationship has been shown for some nonenveloped viruses (e.g., poliovirus) (11,15,16).
Abstract In theory, influenza viruses can be transmitted through aerosols, large droplets, or direct contact with secretions (or fomites). These 3 modes are not mutually exclusive. Published findings that support the occurrence of aerosol transmission were reviewed to assess the importance of this mode of transmission. Published evidence indicates that aerosol transmission of influenza can be an important mode of transmission, which has obvious implications for pandemic influenza planning and in particular for recommendations about the use of N95 respirators as part of personal protective equipment.
In contrast, the situation with a pandemic strain of influenza A (H5) would become only too clear because no one would have any degree of immunity against such a virus, vaccines would not be available for months, and these viruses would likely be highly virulent. Even though efficient human-to-human transmission of the A (H5N1) virus has not yet been observed (by any mode), transmission of influenza A (H5N1) by aerosols from geese to quails has been demonstrated in the laboratory (33). Thus, even in the current incarnation of A (H5N1), infection by the virus can generate aerosols that are infectious for highly susceptible hosts. As far as we know, 1 of the main blocks to efficient human-to-human transmission of influenza A (H5N1) is the virus’s current preference for specific sialic acid receptors. The current strains still prefer ¦Á-2,3¨Clinked sialic acids, which is typical of avian influenza viruses, whereas human influenza viruses bind preferentially to ¦Á-2,6¨Clinked sialic acids (34¨C36). In all likelihood, 1 of the mutations required for influenza A (H5N1) to give rise to a pandemic strain would be to change its receptor affinity to favor the ¦Á-2,6¨Clinked sialic acids. For the influenza A (H1N1) pandemic strain of 1918, this change required only 1 or 2 amino acid substitutions (36). Once a highly transmissible strain of influenza A (H5) has arisen, it will likely spread in part by aerosols, like other human influenza viruses.
Currently, several pandemic plans differ considerably in their recommendations for infection control precautions and PPE. The current version of the Canadian pandemic plan recommends surgical masks only, disregarding data that support the aerosol transmission of influenza (4). The US pandemic plans (5) and the British plans, from both the National Health Service and the Health Protection Agency acknowledge the contribution of aerosols in influenza but curiously recommend surgical masks for routine care; the use of N95 respirators is reserved for protection during “aerosolizing procedures” (5,40). These recommendations fail to recognize that infectious aerosols will also be generated by coughing and sneezing. The Australian Management Plan for Pandemic Influenza (June 2005) recommends N95 respirators for healthcare workers and in France, the Plan gouvernemental de pr¨¦vention et de lutte recommends FFP2 respirators (equivalent to N95 respirators) Given the scientific evidence that supports the occurrence of aerosol transmission of influenza, carefully reexamining current recommendations for PPE equipment would appear necessary.

http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol12no11/06-0426.htm

LauraBat 21:42

Thank you for posting all that information. The only problem is that in Indonesia, Thailand, etc. there are high humidity levels. The question is if and when it goes H2H, will the same hold true of H5N1 vs seasonal flu viruses?

pablo escobar – at 22:00

Ah, LauraB. Indonesia proves the point. Maybe the reason TS has NOT HTF is justly because of the humidity levels. Remember, R-nought is the measure of clustering. Higher humidity therefore, the harder it is for H5N1 to spread. Where would we be today if the Indonesian strain happened in a place of low humidity? Maybe “the grace of god” is that the indo clusters petered out due to the humidity.

01 November 2006

pablo escobar – at 08:38

from the lack of comment, I assume that the inverse relationship between humidity and influenza infectivity is common knowledge at the fluwikie and everyone here has humidifiers in their prep kit and hospitals, schools, and businesses are working on ways to integrate humidifiers into their infrastructure.

My point is that there is a qualitative and substantive difference between active and passive methodologies to reduce the severity of any pandemic.

Passive - Get pneumo vax, prepurchase medicines, store food, water. Purchase material to survive the storm. Monitor news to identify start of pandemic, etc.

Active - create doable vaccine production plans (distributed small lot / Non GMP / local production), Encourage others to prep, create and implement plans to sustain infrastructure, create and implement plans to reduce infection (SIP, PPE, UV sterilization,and humidity control), etc.

So you have to ask yourself. Are you an active player? Or are you a passive player?

I read over and over here that the passives are frustrated with the actives (especially when the actives aren’t even putting into place some passive plan).

Me? I’m about ready to cross over into the active side. Wish me luck.

moeb – at 08:46

excuse me but are you pablo escobar from Asian Times?

LauraBat 09:09

Good point Pablo. If that is the reason Asia hasn’t exploded yet, then I guess we should very worried about more recent cases in Egypt - not exactly a tropical rain forest there. And yes, we have discussed the humidity/flu link before.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / News Reports for October 31

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: News Reports for October 31

31 October 2006

AnnieBat 00:51

(If you want any of the links to open in a new window, hold down the shift key and then click on the link)

Summary from Indonesia Outbreak as at 30 October 2006

Cases DiscussedJun-06Jul-06Aug-06Sep-06Oct-06Total
Died, no tests2243617
Died, tested positive4323315
Other tested positive013105
Suspected symptoms42463830120
Tested negative062619758
Totals1014816446215

Lookout Posts – here are the links (if no Lookout Post exists, it will not be highlighted)

Please visit these threads for latest information from these regions or to add news

NoRegion NameNoRegion NameNoRegion Name
1USA8East Africa15Arab Peninsula
2Canada, Greenland and the Arctic Circle9Southern Africa and Madagascar16Central Asia
3Central America and Caribbean10Northwest Europe and British Isles17Southern Asia
4South America and Surrounding Islands11West and Southwest Europe18Mainland East Asia and Japan
5Northern Africa12Central and Southeast Europe19Southeast Asia
6West Africa13Eastern Europe and Baltic Region20Australasia Melanesia and Micronesia
7Central Africa14Middle East and Caucasus Region21Pacific Islands and Antarctic

(Please see the thread Volunteers Needed as Lookouts Worldwide if you want to help)


Summary of News for 29 October 2006

(From WHO as at 16 Oct - latest update) Total human cases worldwide 256, deaths 151 (2006 – 109 with 73 deaths)

Egypt

India

Indonesia

Norway

United Kingdom

United States of America

Vietnam

General

Link to news thread for 30 October (link News Reports for October 30 )
(Usual disclaimer about may not have captured everything. Feel free to add your own where omissions have occurred.)
Please note that I copy the links directly from the thread so if they don’t work you may need to re-visit the Thread.

AnnieBat 00:53

After considerable commentary in yesterday’s News Thread about the changing virus strain and evading vaccination etc, the following post was made and I thought it well worth copying to today’s thread

anon_22 – at 00:11

You know what? Nothing was ever going to ‘solve the problem’. Nature has its way of throwing up new strains. Remember that previous pandemic viruses also started from southern China, long before there were poultry vaccines. The question that I still have is this, what is so different about that part of the world, that makes it the origin of pandemic flu viruses? Until someone starts to look at it this way, we won’t get any nearer to figuring out what’s going on, IMHO.

AnnieBat 04:53

L.A. officials warned to prepare for avian flu

Troy Anderson, Staff Writer Article Launched:10/31/2006 12:00:00 AM PST

LOS ANGELES — Although the spread of the avian flu is slowing in Europe and is unlikely to hit the U.S. soon, Los Angeles County health officials warned school districts and government agencies on Monday to continue preparing for its eventual arrival. “What’s known now is that the spread of the avian H5N1 virus has seemed to slow down,” said Sadina Reynaldo, an epidemiologist with the county Department of Public Health. She emphasized government officials and the public should continue to prepare for a pandemic.

Reynaldo made the comments during a flu conference for about 200 education leaders and school emergency specialists to focus on preparations for a flu pandemic that could result in widespread student absences and force school closures.

Los Angeles County Superintendent of Schools Darlene Robles said she wants to provide school districts with the information they need to develop comprehensive health plans in the event of a pandemic. Robles said school districts would be expected to provide parents with informational packets on how students could continue learn if schools were closed.

link http://tinyurl.com/sdej6

AnnieBat 04:56

Diseases affecting Yellowstone wildlife Park, universities conduct research projects

By MIKE STARK Of The Gazette Staff

Infectious and sometimes deadly wildlife diseases are inching closer to Yellowstone National Park, and few of its most famous animals seem immune from the threat.

The list reads like a who’s who of troubling bugs and viruses: chronic wasting disease, West Nile, avian flu, whirling disease, hantavirus and brucellosis.

Some are already in Yellowstone; others may be coming. If they take hold, they threaten elk, bison, deer and other mammals along with native trout and birds.

Lots more at http://tinyurl.com/yycdxl

AnnieBat 05:04

(New Zealand) Planners prepare for possible pandemic

31 October 2006 By KAMALA HAYMAN

Up to 1800 plane passengers and crew might have to be quarantined in Christchurch if an international flu pandemic forces New Zealand to close its borders.

Army barracks, tent cities, sports stadiums and hotels have been considered as possible quarantine centres for passengers arriving at Christchurch International Airport after borders have been closed, says a draft pandemic plan released by the Canterbury District Health Board yesterday.

The release comes just days before all 21 district health boards take part in a day-long exercise to test the nation’s preparedness for a flu pandemic. The Health Ministry scenario, to be tested on November 9, supposes isolated outbreaks of an infectious and deadly flu virus in each district.

<snip>

New Zealand is likely to close its borders as soon as the WHO identified a pandemic virus internationally.

In Christchurch, health officials would race to the airport to intercept flights. Passengers showing symptoms of the suspect pandemic virus were likely to be sent to hospital and others diverted to quarantine sites.

<snip> ( ..discussing quarantine sites and options .. ) Public health officials said hotels were the best option. The Rydges hotel chain had already offered its services.

Border control was expected to slow the spread of any pandemic flu but not prevent its arrival. Public health officials would try to stamp out any clusters until it spread beyond small groups.

A full-scale pandemic would then mean schools, shopping malls and bars would be closed.

Hospitals and other healthcare providers would be separated into red and green streams to keep flu sufferers (red) from other patients (green).

<snip>

Hospitals would not be able to cope with the number of cases if the next pandemic was as severe as that seen in 1918. If repeated today, four out of 10 people would be infected and 3700 people in Canterbury would die.

Millar said most flu sufferers would be expected to recover at home and seek advice from a phone helpline. Some would be referred to special flu clinics or “community-based assessment centres” but kept away from GPs or the hospital’s emergency department. Millar said he believed Christchurch communities would support each other during a pandemic. However, a discussion document released by the National Ethics Advisory Committee has suggested a mixed response, ranging from volunteers who visited isolated families to people who refused to help their sick neighbours.

<snip> (Link http://tinyurl.com/wz72l)

Pixie – at 07:02

Comment: Niman spoke about the Fujian strain being “widespread” in China, in wild birds, poultry, and in human cases, months ago. Why is this news being released now by Yi Guan, Webster. What is different? We’ve known about it, but why make the world aware of this now?

Likewise for the story from China about the tree sparrows infected with H5N1. We have known about the fact that tree sparrows in China can carry H5N1 for around a year now. We’ve seen at least partial sequences for them. Why did we see a rash of stories about this “news” hit the very mainstream media last week?

The concept, too, that any of these strains might become resistant to vaccines is also an old one, and one that’s been commented on frequently. Last we heard, China had planned to vaccinate 4 billion birds, which is basically an invitation to the virus to act like a teenager trying to avoid curfew. Are they saying that the new news is that Fujian is now more resistant to most antivirals/vax and/or that it is now hard to detect? I am having a hard time parsing what is specifically new news from what Webster is saying and these news reports.

anon_22 – at 07:28

Pixie,

There is a difference between writing about it on a blog and publishing a scientific paper, with all the rigor and review process necessary, and the references to back up what you are saying. The moral of the story is that you may get information sooner from informal sources, but you need to look out for formal verification, cos the initial information could be incorrect, when all the details are taken into account.

anon_22 – at 07:40

Also, Niman was quoting from one single set of slides from the Chinese CDC, while Webster et al took 53,000 samples and sequenced 400 of them. This is first hand information.

cottontop – at 07:43

Pixie- You are asking the same question as I have been for over a week; why are they now, releasing much older info on this?

anon_22-

I’m sure that made sense to some people here, and I do respect your output on all of this, but please, in laymens terms? Either they have been purposefully withholding information from the public or they haven’t.

moeb – at 07:46

comment: maybe it’s just halloween

anon_22 – at 07:58

cottontop,

Nobody has been withholding information. The research process to test and confirm findings take time. As is the process of submitting it to a publication, which needs to review it in detail before it is published. The timescale is about right, for this process.

anon_22 – at 08:04

Or, to put it in another way, Niman and similar reports are what we would call anecdotal reports, ie somebody said something, and its not proven to be either accurate or statistically valid. It’s still useful to know, but such information can often by either wrong or misleading..

Part of the criticism about Niman’s approach expressed by many people is his refusal to go through the proper processes to validate his ideas. That’s fine, as long as you know that those are only his ideas and not fully verified in a more rigorous manner. That’s also why he can make so many utterances, (see the pieces he writes), while Webster et al makes a lot less.

I’ve nothing against Niman’s taking anecdotal evidence and explaining them. We do that too on this forum. But one should label that as such when doing that.

Those of you who still don’t understand this, see if you can get a copy of the paper, and read through the methodology and ask yourself why they go through such a complicated ritual to make one or two points. The answer is so that other scientists can read it and examine their methods to see if the conclusions are valid. It’s called openness.

Goju – at 08:07

on Good Morning America today the weather was brought to you by Tamiflu. Go figure.

Newsie – at 08:34

It is flu season. : )

Homesteader – at 08:35

anon_22 8:04

IMHO waiting for scientific validation via publication means by the time it is published it is old information. Six months is a long time horizon in this situation. There will be “bodies in the streets” (anecdotal)and the TPTB will waiting for scientific proof to validate the pandemic.

Homesteader – at 08:35

anon_22 8:04

IMHO waiting for scientific validation via publication means by the time it is published it is old information. Six months is a long time horizon in this situation. There will be “bodies in the streets” (anecdotal)and the TPTB will waiting for scientific proof to validate the pandemic.

Pixie – at 08:49

anon_22:

Point well taken about proper scientific process. But in this particular situation, maybe the top scientists need to find a new paradigm, a new way of working, some kind of emergency footing. Six months is a long time to wait to hear that a poultry vax is potentially ineffective. The Chinese farmers would have known this months ago, though.

I now have a picture in my mind of Yi Guan or Webster emerging from their labs, ready with the announcement that pan-flu is imminent, only to find that everyone in their offices has left and gone home because they already have it.

Tally Prepper – at 08:51

Mystery illness kills at least 20 in Nepal Mon 30 Oct 2006 10:11 PM ET KATHMANDU, Oct 31 (Reuters) - A mysterious disease has killed at least 20 people in two villages of west Nepal over the past 10 days, and hundreds more are sick, a health official said on Tuesday. “People suddenly catch high fever, start shivering, faint and then die,” said Ram Bahadur Chand, a senior official the district public health office in Nepalgunj, 321 km (201 miles) west of the capital, Kathmandu. Local media reports put the death toll at 36 from four remote villages near Nepalgunj. “We have 20 confirmed deaths so far and more than 300 people are suffering from the unknown disease,” Chand told Reuters. He said 200 blood samples had been collected and medical workers had reached the affected villages. Each year Nepal’s rickety health infrastructure run by a mere 1300 doctors in 87 hospitals around the country deals with hundreds of thousands of cases of pneumonia, cholera, fever, diarrhoea and tuberculosis. Many of the poor Himalayan nation’s 26 million people are either unable to afford the cost of medical treatment or do not have access to basic health care.

http://today.reuters.com/News/CrisesArticle.aspx?storyId=B145880

Klatu – at 08:51

anon_22 – at 08:04 wrote:

Or, to put it in another way, Niman and similar reports are what we would call anecdotal reports, ie somebody said something, and its not proven to be either accurate or statistically valid. It’s still useful to know, but such information can often by either wrong or misleading.


Commentary

1 a : an explanatory treatise — usually used in plural b : a record of events usually written by a participant — usually used in plural

2 a : a systematic series of explanations or interpretations (as of a writing)

Anecdotal

“: a usually short narrative of an interesting, amusing, or biographical incident”

http://www.m-w.com/dictionary/anecdote

Thinlina – at 08:52

If news of vaccines’ inefficiency are published too fast, aren’t the drug companies losing a lot of income..?

Cynically Yours, Thinlina

anon_22 – at 09:01

Homesteader – at 08:35

Homesteader – at 08:35 anon_22 8:04

IMHO waiting for scientific validation via publication means by the time it is published it is old information. Six months is a long time horizon in this situation. There will be “bodies in the streets” (anecdotal)and the TPTB will waiting for scientific proof to validate the pandemic.

In this instance, it isn’t. It hasn’t made much difference to the outcome, whether you knew about it then or now, IMHO. We can disagree, but credibility of source is extremely important.

FYI, I saw the Chinese CDC slides when they came out. I read the information related to it from a different source in original ie in Chinese. I thought it was credible, but I saw 2 problems about writing them up. One, they only gave a very small sample. There was very little indication on what else was happening to put in context, which is now supplied by the Webster study, even though that is still not a complete picture, but its a more complete one. Secondly, the credibility of the Chinese government has often been doubted indeed derided on this forum. I have been challenged repeatedly about ‘defending’ them even when I’m not.

In addition, there was no immediate implication for action, ie I would not have decided to act differently based on a small number of samples of H5N1 having changed in China, as one would expect was going to happen sooner or later. Now if the information was about large outbreaks, then that’s a different story. I would have written up about them and put in the caveat that this was anecdotal and unverified.

With all respect, you (not you in particular, but folks in general) can’t have it both ways. Saying the Chinese government is not to be trusted, and saying that information based solely on Chinese government source aka the Niman blogs is so trustworthy that we don’t need to wait for independent scientific verificationl.

When do we wait and when we should not wait, is a matter of judgement. On the various threads that I’ve been posting on community containment, I’ve been writing about ‘precautionary principle’, when one needs to take action despite lack of evidence. IMHO this current finding of Fujian strain does not rise to that threshold. But again you can disagree.

anon_22 – at 09:02

Klatu,

‘Anecdotal’ used in the scientific sense means its not verified and/or its not statistically significant.

Thinlina – at 09:06

anon_22 – at 09:01 “In this instance, it isn’t. It hasn’t made much difference to the outcome, whether you knew about it then or now, IMHO. We can disagree, but credibility of source is extremely important.”

Anon_22, people need quite a bit of money to get the vaccines. If the money is spent to some ineffective vaccines, there isn’t always money left to buy the effective ones. That’s one reason why the published research seem to be “old news”.

Edna Mode – at 09:08

Goju – at 08:07 on Good Morning America today the weather was brought to you by Tamiflu. Go figure.

Goju, In its third quarter earnings conference call, Roche bemoaned the fact that, while Tamiflu is currently widely accepted as the treatment du jour for H5N1 infection, there is not enough regular seasonal demand for Tamiflu to treat seasonal flu. Roche is attempting to build awareness on this front. Has nothing to do with pan prep really.

moeb – at 09:08

Pixie – at 08:49

quote “I now have a picture in my mind of Yi Guan or Webster emerging from their labs, ready with the announcement that pan-flu is imminent, only to find that everyone in their offices has left and gone home because they already have it.”

I think I’ll draw that cartoon

Edna Mode – at 09:12

cottontop – at 07:43 I’m sure that made sense to some people here, and I do respect your output on all of this, but please, in laymens terms? Either they have been purposefully withholding information from the public or they haven’t.

anon_22 – at 07:58 Nobody has been withholding information. The research process to test and confirm findings take time. As is the process of submitting it to a publication, which needs to review it in detail before it is published. The timescale is about right, for this process.

To say nothing of the actual publication process itself. Periodicals have long lead times to allow for the editorial process, printing, and distribution.

The thing I find interesting about everything that is coming out now is that most of it validates the speculation on blogs and here at the wiki that was ongoing months ago. I think we should feel confident in the news and interpretation that goes on here.

Why is all of this getting released now? For the reasons already given, no doubt. But also, maybe part of the ongoing awareness drum beat.

anon_22 – at 09:14

Pixie – at 08:49 anon_22:

Point well taken about proper scientific process. But in this particular situation, maybe the top scientists need to find a new paradigm, a new way of working, some kind of emergency footing.

The information coming out of the IOM meeting is unpublished, and very recent. That’s an example of when they believed there is no time to waste to wait for publication, but they still presented it in front of a roomful of peers who can ask questions and review the data.

The information about the response of Turkish cases to tamiflu is another example. In that instance, because of methodology flaws and/or Turkish government’s reluctance to supply more information, the data could not be published via the proper channels. I learnt about it first from Fred Hayden in Singapore and secondly from the Turkish docs in Paris at the Institut Pasteur. That gives me enough confidence about the credibility of the information.

Six months is a long time to wait to hear that a poultry vax is potentially ineffective. No, that’s been widely talked about. It is entirely expected. But what is the point of saying it unless it is to try and change policy? And if you want to change policy, to overcome opposition, you would then need properly documented water-tight data.

The Chinese farmers would have known this months ago, though. No they didn’t. As far as they were concerned the vaccine worked, ie there were far fewer poultry deaths. We are the ones who worry about chickens not dying, the farmers are happy when the chickens didn’t die.

I now have a picture in my mind of Yi Guan or Webster emerging from their labs, ready with the announcement that pan-flu is imminent, only to find that everyone in their offices has left and gone home because they already have it.

They are a lot smarter than that. :-) Plus the proof that a pandemic is happening is not in virology, is in epidemiology.

Those FluWikians tracking cases will know sooner than virologists if a pandemic is breaking out.

observer – at 09:17

From what I recall Webster has been a stong advocate for prepping and never down played the threat and the need for preparation. He never said, “Gee wait until I check this out and I will get back to you”. But, scientific verification is critical to understanding the problem and attempting to find ways to address it. It takes time - it is doing your homework (we all wish we were born with absolute knowledge and wisdom).

It is also true that some countries for a variety of reasons are not completely forthcoming. That is a problem but there is no easy solution for that. Yes, there are delays but don’t shot the messengers (Webster, et al) for their research and verification. The more we understand about this virus the better.

anon_22 – at 09:17

Thinlina – at 09:06

Anon_22, people need quite a bit of money to get the vaccines. If the money is spent to some ineffective vaccines, there isn’t always money left to buy the effective ones. That’s one reason why the published research seem to be “old news”.

If you are talking about farmers and poultry vaccines in China, they only care about whether the chickens are dying. So you can’t sell them the notion that vaccines that selects for new H5N1 strains that does not always kill the chickens is a bad idea.

It’s the government (yes, the central government in Beijing and the Chinese CDC) who are worried about bad vaccines, but they have a hard time implementing proper controls at the local level.

anon_22 – at 09:20

Edna Mode – at 09:12

Why is all of this getting released now? For the reasons already given, no doubt. But also, maybe part of the ongoing awareness drum beat.

It’s coming out now cos the samples were taken for a 12-month period of July 2005 to June 2006. That is, the last samples were obtained 4 months ago. To analyze all of those samples, do supplementary research to verify stuff, come up with a thesis to explain the data, agree among the researchers, write it up, edit it, send it to various journals, wait for editorial response, possibly being sent back for some major or minor re-writes, before finally being accepted for publication. If the last samples were taken in June, this is fast!

Homesteader – at 09:35

My previous post was in no way intended to “slam” the scientists and hope it was not interpreted that way. Indeed, as “Observer” pointed out Dr. Webster along with Dr. Osterholm has been one of the few to stick his neck out and tell it the way he sees it, which is harsh to say the least. Now Dr. Webster et al are providing the scientific proof to validate the evolution of the virus that he said was going to happen over a year ago. Dr. Webster said “It is going to happen” in reference to the virus gaining the ability to go H2H. . . .and “This is the deadliest virus I’ve ever encountered”

DennisCat 09:56

Scientists Discover New Drug-Resistant Strain of Bird Flu

“Scientists have discovered a new strain of bird flu and it looks like current vaccines are not effective against it. Researchers from the University of Hong Kong say the strain can be found in China and other Asian countries.

It has infected people, but doesn’t appear to easily pass from person to person like the common flu. Experts say new vaccines will need to be developed to battle the new strain. “

http://tinyurl.com/u94ra

Leo7 – at 10:30

All you people questioning the time requirement and validations before publishing of the scientific process represented in the quantity and quality of the Webster et al examination should report to the rumor thread, immediately.

Homesteader – at 10:43

All you people satisfied with JIT prepping and Social Distancing report to the WHO website for all further information relating to the HPAI Pandemic. :)

anon_22 – at 10:43

LOL!

Scaredy Cat – at 10:52

Too bad Niman can’t defend himself here against anon_22′s attempts to discredit him.

cottontop – at 10:53

I do understand that researcing, validating and publishing material is a long and tedious process. And this should really open our eyes up to the fact that “help” in any form of vaccine/medication, will not be in sight, for a long time when the pandemic hits. Six month minimal, just for research? How long after that to create vaccines/medicines, another 6 months minimal? So 12 months for “help” to arrive seems validated. Yes research is slooow, and if they are only dealing with one particular that is recking hevic, help would arrive on schedule. If it mutates, or they are looking at more than one strain, don’t look for help in 12 months. There’s too much circulating out there now, for it to be “just one” virus, or “just one “ bacteria. I will have to give these people credit, for even releasing their findings, and not “coverup” what they know.

moeb – at 10:55

we’re so past that

Goju – at 11:06

Niman called migratory bird spreading H5N1 before anyone else in the face of much resistance. He called S227N. He called the spread into Indonesia and the nightmare it would create there. He called the spread into the Mid east and Africa.

Official notices take too long when looking at Pandemic Flu… especially one cause by such a deadly virus.

It is too bad he is not here anymore.

Scaredy Cat – at 11:06

then the dart throwing should stop

Scaredy Cat – at 11:07

that was in response to moeb

Grace RN – at 11:12

FYI

Long, but interesting read on Oct 2006 issue of http://www.hsaj.org/

Assessment of Public Health Infrastructure to Determine Public Health Preparedness

   - Denise Santiago, Anke Richter 
Timber – at 11:29

A couple of quick points:

1. The wiki format allows a kind of real-time peer review process. I’m extremely grateful to anon_22 AND Niman — and everyone else who is bringing their intellect to bear on the panflu problem.

2. Each of us has a different agenda. That diversity helps to keep us from over-reacting. It’s the ballast of the ship.

3. MSM is clearly taking panflu much more seriously now. The reports are more sober. We owe a lot to those who have built credibility by carefully assessing the facts and challenges we face.

cottontop – at 11:30

“Worringly, the antibodies being used to develop human vaccines for H5N1 have been induced from 2004 strains of the virus-these antibodies do not recognize the Fuijian strain. This means the current experimental pandemic vaccine would not work against any pandemic virus that emerged equipped with Fuijian surface protiens.”

www.sawfnews.com scroll down to health

nsthesia – at 11:58

Ya know,

I’m all for the scientific process. I am a product of that milieu. Probably at conception, if the truth be known…but that is another thread…

BUT, IMO, waiting months for information to be dispersed in a situation where hours, days and weeks may mean the difference between high and low rates of mortality/morbidity, does not exactly meet the needs of the human populace.

I fully recognize the need for validated research data. Absolutely. But, hell, 90% of what we do in medicine on a daily basis is based purely on anecdotal information. And that is a fact, Jack. We are only now embracing evidence-based medical practices. BTW, this paragraph is not to negate the need for such evidence.

BUT (again)…it is one thing to merely comment and throw out information randomly. And then another to do so based on information and observances by educated informants. Anecdotal information obtained by virologists, epidemiologists, geneticists, HCWs, in the field is not to be taken lightly. Those in the trenches watching this unfold before their eyes are valuable data collectors.

We do this every day in healthcare. Those medications that are approved to be utilized in one method are typically used DAILY on an off-label way. These off-label uses are done so because the drug companies will not pay for the research to apply for a different utilization. It takes years to get that changed.

IMO, this situation is analogous to many of our practice issues mentioned above. With the exception of a possible/probable devolution to disaster measured in terms of viral replications. I do not think that info obtained from the field or lab, by educated, reliable professionals should be relegated to a “Rumors” thread.

There should be instead, gradations of data ranging from anecdotal, first-pass info, to more refined, probable info, to the final, verified research summary. At least those first reports from valued informants will give a heads up alert, to then be refuted or validated.

FrenchieGirlat 12:06

NEWS - EGYPT - WHO confirms 7th death: http://tinyurl.com/yeju4c

Avian influenza – situation in Egypt – update 10 - 31 October 2006

The Ministry of Health in Egypt has confirmed the country’s seventh death from H5N1 avian influenza. The 39-year-old woman, whose infection was confirmed on 11 October, died on 30 October.

Of the 15 cases confirmed to date in Egypt, seven have been fatal.

Utah_Megee – at 12:17

I just found this about Bush signing a new law that makes it easier to use US troops inside the US to “suppress public disorder”: In a stealth maneuver, President Bush has signed into law a provision which, according to Senator Patrick Leahy (D-Vermont), will actually encourage the President to declare federal martial law (1). It does so by revising the Insurrection Act, a set of laws that limits the President’s ability to deploy troops within the United States. The Insurrection Act (10 U.S.C.331 −335) has historically, along with the Posse Comitatus Act (18 U.S.C.1385), helped to enforce strict prohibitions on military involvement in domestic law enforcement. With one cloaked swipe of his pen, Bush is seeking to undo those prohibitions

It specifically mentions epidemics http://tinyurl.com/ykunoe

Klatu – at 12:30

Scaredy Cat – at 10:52 wrote:

“Too bad Niman can’t defend himself here…….”


All ideas and thoughts need to be critically challenged and withstand close scrutinity. The only foolish question, is the one that remains unspoken. I don’t think Dr. N would disagree. My 2-cents.

Klatu – at 12:37

Expected Terjangkit the Bird Flu Virus, Hundreds Of poultries died Suddenly in Tanjungbalai

31, 2006 at 08:36 AM

(software translation from Indonesian)

(SIB) in a week of hundreds of poultries of a kind of chicken and the duck died suddenly di Tanjungbalai was expected terjangkit the virus Avian influenza (AI) or was known with bird flu. Resulting from the death of this poultry, the Tanjungbalai community became restless and asked for serious attention from the Tanjungbalai Health Service. “Kami surprised in this week our kept chicken died suddenly and that was reported to the village head setempat,” said Alogo Harahap the citizen of the District of Subdistrict tusks Datuk the Tanjungbalai Port, on Monday (30/10) to the reporter.

Alogo said, his kept chicken approximately 80 tails died suddenly and together. To guard the assumption of the existence of the virus of attacking his livestock then the incident it was reported to district apparatus during immediately was followed up.

He said, all the chicken that died belonging to him at the time was at once burnt along with his pen because dikwatirkan so that terjangkit to the kept poultry the citizen of surrounding area. According to Alogo, not only his kept chicken that died suddenly, dozens of the citizen’s chickens around also was attacked and died suddenly.

However the chicken and the citizen’s duck that died this was that at once was buried and a citizen’s part exiled him to the closest river in the area. The assumption of the existence of the AI virus in the same area made the citizen of the Sei Tualang Raso Subdistrict restless, after being found by dozens of the citizen’s chickens also died suddenly. The chicken that died suddenly this immediately was planted/was buried. Learned the existence of hundreds of chickens and the duck died suddenly, the community became restless and was worried by the death of hundreds of poultries was resulted in by the AI virus or bird flu.

So the community ask for so that the agricultural Service and Perternakan as well as the Health Service in daeah that immediately could intervene to do the existence research of the assumption of the AI virus didaeah that. And was asked to do the extermination for the poultry remained if positive the existence of the AI virus.” - excerpt

http://tinyurl.com/ybm4rf

anon_22 – at 12:46

I believe we have strayed from the original controversy, which was did anybody try to hide the truth. :-)

Other than that, information in any way shape or form is always useful. There’s a time and place for everything, otherwise, why else would we have a wiki? Its just a matter of personal judgment how you use or evaluate a specific piece of info,

Klatu – at 12:46

Maps: Tanjungbalai on the Island of Sumatra, just south-east of the city of Medan

http://tinyurl.com/y9rvtf

http://www.fallingrain.com/world/ID/26/Tanjungbalai.html

OnandAnonat 13:07

From the AABB smartbrief-

New bird flu strain reported in Southeast Asia A new strain of avian flu appears to dodge vaccines being developed to block the virus and already has infected some Asians, raising anew the fear of a global pandemic. Researchers call it the H5N1 Fujian-like strain, and it already is the target of an effort to develop new vaccines. Los Angeles Times/Associated Press (free registration) (10/30)

Tom DVM – at 13:07

Hi anon 22. The WHO doesn’t hide the truth…it twists the truth, it manipulates the truth…like an alchemist, it makes truth out of fiction…

…and the ethical members of the World Health Organization stand by and let it happen…seems to me that during other historical events in the past ethical people also stood by and kept silent…

…’tis a fine web that we weave’.

uk bird – at 13:18

UK - Increase in wild bird surveillance for Avian Flu

http://tinyurl.com/yzy3yo

More than 300 nature reserves, parks and reservoirs are being added to the list of sites where wild birds are tested for signs of avian influenza, Environment Secretary David Miliband announced today.

Scaredy Cat – at 14:13

Klatu at 12:30 - “All ideas and thoughts need to be critically challenged and withstand close scrutinity.”

I agree. However the discussion’s a little stunted when the scrutinee has been banned from participation.

DennisCat 14:17

I normally don’t post new books and products but this one is a free down load: although I wonder since it says there are “antibiotic resistant stains” in its PR.

“A new free book about bird flu has been published by Michael Greger, M.D., the US Humane Society’s director of public health and animal agriculture. Bird Flu: a Virus of Our Own Hatching (the site contains the entire book text) tells why modern industrialized agricultural methods, including factory farming, antibiotics misuse, and the use of animal refuse as a food source (!) for chickens and other livestock, have led to a staggering increase in the number of ‘zoonotic’ diseases that can leap from animals to people, and make a bird flu pandemic likely. The book discusses in practical terms what you can do to prevent infection and what to do if you do catch the disease. The book is especially timely given yesterday’s news that a new, antibiotics-resistant variant of H5N1 has been detected in China.”

http://tinyurl.com/y26ure

Klatu – at 14:54

Two patients Suspect Bird Flu entered RSHS Bandung

Tuesday, October 31 2006 16:36

(Software Translation)

Bandung — “MIOL: two patients suspect bird flu, theSpirit, 62, and Int, 3, entered the Handsome Sadikin Hospital (RSHS) Bandung and both of them were treatedin space of the Poinciana Tree isolation after getting reconciliation from puskemas and the hospital thattreated the two patients.

The patient the Spirit, the citizen Rancaloa RT 05/08the District Cipamokolan the Rancasari Subdistrict, Bandung entered RSHS Bandung on Monday night (30/10) around struck 20.

Now the patient Int, the citizen Sindang Panon theBandung Subdistrict of the Regency Row entered RSHS Bandung on Tuesday morning around struck 08. According to the Chairman Tim the Control of Bird Fluin RSHS Bandung, Dr Hadi Yusuf, in Bandung, on Tuesday, said, the patient the Spirit was the consignment from the Cipamokolan Community Health Centre because of having the story of contact with the poultry that died suddenly totalling 13 tails and this poultry after being done by the inspection by Distan the Bandung City evidently positive bird flu. He said, was based on the speech on his family, the patient the Spirit already three until four days experienced the temperature of the hot body and had the sign of the cough, but was not breathless. Because the patient the Spirit had the sign like bird flu, then the patient was treated as suspect.

The patient the Spirit was not helped the implement pernasafan like the ventilator because did not experience breathless. Now the patient Int reconciliation from RSUD Soreang that since znumanyz days ago experienced the temperature of the body that was high enough and experienced breathless.

Despite this, the patient continued to be treated in space of the Poinciana Tree isolation and was helped the respirator.

“To ascertain the illness of the two patients, we to this Tuesday sent the sample of blood, apus the throat and the nose to Balitbangkes in Jakarta”, he said.

In the meantime, Vice Chairman Tim Penanggulangan Breakingprep Flu Burung, Dr Djatnika Setiabudi, proposed, the patient Int has clinically been fulfilled as suspect bird flu because of contact with the clear poultry, namely 11 tails of his property poultry died suddenly and had the sign of bird flu, like the hot body, fast breathing, and was pilek as well as breathless.”

http://tinyurl.com/utvnv

Klatu – at 14:58

Make note of the ages of the latest two suspects with A.I., 3 and 62-years.

AnnieBat 15:01

When the China Flu goes ballistic, is it really going to matter to its victims whether it is fujian or apricot? That information is for the science community and the vaccine creators, to ensure as close a match is possible to give some effectiveness. If such information was not rigorously validated then who would use it? Days, weeks, months? The main point is that it has to be scientifically valid to be ‘useful’.

If I said to you that, say, of my 30 backyard chickens, I noticed that those who limped (of which thre are 7) were the first to succumb to a particular disease, usually 3 days earlier than the rest of the brood. I, therefore, concluded that chickens with a limp have lower disease resistance, would you take that as true and use it to eliminate only chickens with a limp?

Niman’s claims are often proved to be correct but NOT BY NIMAN. Imagine how frustrating it must be for Webster et al if they think precious time is being lost while they undertake rigorous process .. but they also understnad the need to do so.

Enough already, let’s have these eminent and talented people get on with their work and count our blessings that we have sufficient awareness of the threat and the situation to be able to understand what they are saying!

AnnieBat 15:16

UK expands bird flu test patrols

Matt Weaver and agencies Tuesday October 31, 2006 Guardian Unlimited

Hundreds more outdoor sites will be patrolled for signs of bird flu in Britain, the government announced today as scientists reported the discovery of a new strain of the disease in Asia. Staff at the country’s 304 nature reserves, parks and reservoirs will report any dead water birds to the Department of the Environment Food and Rural Affairs.

The move will expand the existing surveillance area by around 1,200 sq kilometres. It is part of the government’s strategy for detecting high-pathogenic strains of the disease in birds. More at http://tinyurl.com/v4aq9

Pixie – at 15:39

AnnieB - at 15:01

Policy makers do prefer to be led by the scientists and hard science, if possible. They prefer to wait for the scientists to come to firm conclusions before policy is made. If science is too slow, or cannot reach agreement, and events outrun them, policy makers have to make policy without final firm conclusions, and often have to proceed with little or no sure scientific input.

Citizens prefer to wait for leadership from policy makers who they hope will establish cogent clear policies that clarify the actions they are supposed to take. If policy makers are too slow, or cannot reach agreement, and events outrun them, citizens sometimes have to move forward to take action and proceed on their own.

In an ideal world, we would have the time and leisure to move deliberately and surely, using best practices in both the scientific and policy realms. But events may outrun us. I think we feel that tension now. One of the most memorable lessons from Barry’s book, “The Great Influenza,” was how both the scientific community and the political leadership failed the city of Philadelphia and it was the Society Hill dames whose action and organization saved the city from complete misery when events overtook everyone.

DennisCat 16:42

Scientist gets out word: U.S. preparations for pandemic must pick up

“The predictions are staggering: 89,000 to 207,000 could die in a flu pandemic. Three hundred and fourteen thousand to 734,000 could be hospitalized. Twenty million to 47 million would be sick. If a medium-level pandemic – a global outbreak of disease such as the bird flu – hits the United States, experts predict it will impact 15 to 35 percent of all Americans, in the absence of any vaccinations….

at East Stroudsburg University on Monday. Dr. Carole Heilman, director of the Division of Microbiology and Infectious Diseases at the National Institutes of Health, delivered the keynote address.”

http://tinyurl.com/y39poz

Klatu – at 16:42

AnnieB – at 15:01 wrote:

“When the China Flu goes ballistic, is it really going to matter to its victims whether it is Fujian or apricot?”


Yes it will matter to those still standing, who are dodging the viral bullets - a la Matrix. Elucidating the underlying pathology will be very important. The right tool for the right job. But then, I’m no rocket scientist.

DennisCat 16:48

now if the virus will just wait for 3 to 5 years while they spend money on studies…

Preparing the world for a flu pandemic

“The World Health Organization’s new plan for ramping up the production of flu vaccine is a measure of how unprepared the world is to cope with an onslaught of pandemic influenza. The plan, conceived by a group of more than 120 experts, lays out a sensible path toward vaccine sufficiency - but it will take years to complete and cost up to $10 billion…

…The price tag would be $3 billion to $10 billion for a global effort that might yield results in three to five years, provided action started now.

 http://tinyurl.com/yf546y
nsthesia – at 16:53

Annie,

Scientific validation does not have to stop just because anecdotal information is shared.

I would surely trust a healthcare report coming from Leo7 before I would one heard from my housekeeper, <and I don’t even know Leo7 personally> because he has shown a strong knowledge base and a level head.

And if you were an experienced chicken farmer and you noted unique symptoms that you had never seen before in a subgroup of your poultry, you better believe I would pay attention to your information. Even without a doctorate!

I am not saying do not proceed with the formal, scientific data processing, but I also do not want to see a suppression of informed, experienced data collectors. Data points gathered from those in their own areas of expertise would seem to be extremely valuable. Sort of a “peer-reviewed” situation. Not taken at face value, but scrutinized by others in their field.

As a female, and knowing that we tend to be good communicators, I would be personally interested in gathering the information that the women of the communities possess. Find the matriarch of the area and get her cooperation to obtain information.

And if the whole system collapses, IMO, these local “experts” with scrutinized anecdotal data may soon be our best bet. Remember, even 30% of those working on that scientific validation may get infected.

I would like to see it all - the proven, the being worked on, AND the “something is happening but we don’t know what it is yet.” I suppose the latter is important to me because this happens in the hospital all the time. It takes someone with a good “second sense” <trust your gut> to be an excellent clinician. All your objective data may look OK, but you can just sense the patient is about to spiral out of control.

Ask Leo, he knows what I’m talking about…

Tink – at 16:57

I hope all y’all can open these links. One talks about WHO stating that the new strain of avian flu, “Fujian-like virus”, does not pose a greater human health risk. The second link from Reuters, states, strongly, there is. What do y’all think?

http://tinyurl.com/yk5m6q

http://tinyurl.com/yhvox7

Klatu – at 17:03

Tink – at 16:57 wrote:

“I hope all y’all can open these links. One talks about WHO stating that the new strain of avian flu, “Fujian-like virus”, does not pose a greater human health risk…..What do y’all think?”


W.H.O. do you trust?

AnnieBat 17:31

Further to the linksa from Tink:, here is the WHO story (rather long but some significant points and perspectives IMHO)

New bird flu variant doesn’t seem to pose greater human health risk: WHO

(CP) - The emergence of a new variant of H5N1 avian flu viruses doesn’t appear to raise or lower the risk the virus poses to humans, officials of the World Health Organization and the Food and Agriculture Organization said Tuesday. <snip>

The newly described subgroup of viruses could pose challenges for containing H5N1 in poultry because vaccines being used in China - where it emerged - may not protect domestic birds against this variant.

But the pattern of human cases with these viruses is similar to that seen with viruses spreading in Indonesia, or those that caused human infections in Vietnam in 2004 and 2005, said Michael Perdue of the WHO. The variant is responsible for recent human cases in China and Thailand.

“If you look at the mortality rate and the disease, the Fujian-strain infections are no different,” said Perdue, a senior scientist with the WHO’s global influenza program.

“So there’s no reason to lead us to believe that this sublineage is acting any differently than any of the other sublineages in terms of affecting humans.”

Dr. Juan Lubroth, head of infectious diseases for the FAO’s animal health service, said the variant bears watching, but doesn’t raise the level of alarm.

“The virus isn’t necessarily more pathogenic, more virulent. The fact that you have a virus that has mutated or has changed somewhat and that humans have become infected with the more dominant virus when it has occurred is logical, because that’s the virus that is circulating,” he said.

Lubroth said emergence of a new variant underscores the importance of conducting regular surveillance to look at what viruses are infecting poultry as well as the need to update poultry vaccines so that they protect against the viruses in circulation. He said, however, that the FAO is not certain Chinese manufacturers are taking this important step.

“We don’t have enough data from China to say that this is what is happening.” <snip>

anonymous – at 17:36

Just The facts Mam

“I am a firm believer in the people. If given the truth they can be depended upon to meet any national crisis. The great point is to bring them the real facts.” — Abraham Lincoln

AnnieBat 17:37

And the second link …

H5N1 strain could start wave of bird flu outbreaks Mon Oct 30, 2006 4:10pm ET

HONG KONG (Reuters) - Scientists in Hong Kong and the United States have detected a new strain of H5N1 bird flu virus in China and warned it might have started another wave of outbreaks in poultry in Southeast Asia and move deeper into Eurasia.

The strain, called the “Fujian-like virus” because it was first isolated in China’s southern Fujian province in March 2005, has ‘’ increasingly been detected since October 2005 in poultry in six provinces in China, displacing other H5N1 strains. The strain might also have become resistant to vaccines, ‘’ which China began using on a large scale from September 2005 to protect poultry from H5N1, said the scientists.

The researchers are from the University of Hong Kong, including virologists Guan Yi and Malik Peiris, and Rob Webster of St Jude Children’s Research Hospital in the United States.

“The predominance of this Fujian-like virus appears to be responsible for the increased prevalence of H5N1 in poultry since October 2005 and recent human infection cases in China,” they said in an article published in the U.S.-based Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (www.pnas.org).

“It has already caused poultry outbreaks in Laos, Malaysia and Thailand, and human disease in Thailand. It is likely that this variant has already initiated a third wave of transmission throughout Southeast Asia and may spread further in Eurasia.”

<snip>

anonymous – at 18:09

Utah_Megee – at 12:17

I would imagine you’re not going to get too many folks willing to discuss that topic in a public forum. But thanks anyway :)

Pixie – at 20:49

Public works may have to address avian flu

By Julie Becker / Daily News staff writer / http://tinyurl.com/y6ot3h

Ask someone what the words “public works” mean to them and they might tell you something about snow plows, garbage trucks or water bills. But many may be unaware that avian flu pandemics and other emergencies make up a portion of the public works repertoire as well.

Chris Walsh, Director of Department of Public Works Operations in Beloit, said that on top of all their other duties, the public works staff are first-line responders in all emergency situations.

In the case of a pandemic outbreak or any other serious emergency, Walsh said it would be extremely difficult for the department to keep up with its regular duties, especially with a significantly smaller staff.

Walsh spoke, on behalf of the American Public Works Association, on the importance of preparing for emergencies at a Congressional briefing in Washington, D.C. Tuesday. And the Beloit department is currently doing just that.

When the avian flu became a bigger concern about a year and a half ago, the department initiated a thorough continuum planning process - in collaboration with other city and county public service providers - to hone their skills and pick their priorities. “We’re being very careful in how we prioritize our services,” Walsh said. “We have to think about which services we have to continue providing (in an emergency), and which we can eliminate.” <snip>

If an outbreak were to occur, dividing the city into quarantine zones and finding ways for infected workers to continue working without spreading the disease are some of the things the city and county would have to do.

The hospital also plays a major role in planning. Barb Kuska, co-chair of the Emergency Management Committee at Beloit Memorial Hospital, said each year they can apply for Hospital Preparedness grants through the U.S. Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA) to make necessary improvements.

“The program was created in response to bioterrorism, but everybody realized early on that it was a multi-spectrum process,” Kuska said.

In the case of any pandemic, the hospital would have to deal with things like increasing capacity, providing isolation - HRSA grants have enabled the hospital to recently add 12 negative air pressure rooms - and having protective and decontamination equipment on hand, Kuska said. <snip>

“The community need to be developing their own personal emergency plans for their families,” she said. “That’s the most important thing right now.” <snip>

Monotreme – at 21:39

Japanese candidate offers ‘political courage’ in WHO race

Japanese WHO official Shigeru Omi, who helped set up a controversial warning against travel to southern China and Hong Kong during the SARS epidemic in 2003, has pledged to show “political courage” if he is elected head of the United Nations health agency.

[snip]

Asked for examples of political courage, Omi underlined his role in advising then WHO chief, Gro Harlem Brundtland, to issue a formal public warning against travel to China’s Guangdong province and Hong Kong on April 2, 2003.

It was the first time that the global health agency had ever issued a travel advisory to prevent the spread of a disease. The decision sparked a howl of protests from the countries concerned.

[snip]

Japanese WHO official Shigeru Omi, who helped set up a controversial warning against travel to southern China and Hong Kong during the SARS epidemic in 2003, has pledged to show “political courage” if he is elected head of the United Nations health agency.

[snip]

Omi said that Asian countries tackling H5N1 bird flu since 2003 were now split in two categories: one that had made good progress in cutting transmission in infected chickens, the other that was “not succesful” in doing so.

“In spite of strong political commitment… and so on. Everybody has good intentions, but there are two groups,” he added.

http://tinyurl.com/y2pfcp

crfullmoon – at 22:01

The best-laid plans continue paving the way with good intentions to “the hot high and breathless place” - and, we’re still in the handbasket!

crfullmoon – at 22:05

(Goes off to light a candle for Shigeru Omi, and, a big candle for Dr.Nabarro. Oh, and one for Abe Lincoln, too.)

Monotreme – at 22:17

Oregon, USA

County to hold flu pandemic drill

The Benton County Health Department and Emergency Management will collaborate with Samaritan Health Services and Oregon State University in a statewide pandemic flu drill from 8 a.m. to noon Wednesday.

[snip]

Community volunteers will enter Good Samaritan’s emergency department reporting “flu-like symptoms” in order to initiate the exercise. If individuals come to the hospital for a real emergency during this time, the drill will stop immediately and will not resume until the emergency has been addressed.

“This is a great opportunity for Samaritan, and our community to learn where we need to improve our pandemic flu plan,” said Bob Vanderford, Samaritan Health Services emergency management director.

[snip]

For more information, see www.oregon.gov/DHS/ph/acd/flu/panflu.shtml.

http://tinyurl.com/yjadpc

Monotreme – at 22:19

Kansas, USA

Awareness, knowledge keys to fighting pandemic, seasonal flu

If you’re prepared for the upcoming flu season, chances are you’re prepared to handle a pandemic outbreak.

That’s what Kansas health leaders discussed during a public flu forum in Emporia.

State Health Director Howard Rodenberg said the basic hygiene and prevention techniques used during the seasonal flu will help families protect themselves from the pandemic.

http://tinyurl.com/yjfta6


Oh jeez, sorry Kansans, but your health leaders are so… well apply whatever adjective is most appropriate.

Monotreme – at 22:22

Illinois, USA

Norovirus cancels flu pandemic meeting at Isle of Capri

A bi-state planning meeting on pandemic flu preparedness scheduled for today at the Isle of Capri Casino was postponed because sterilization of the facility is still under way after an outbreak of norovirus that was first reported earlier this month.

[snip]

The meeting that was scheduled for today likely will be rescheduled. The purpose of the seminar was to share general information on pandemic flu and to give local leaders the opportunity to share ways they are preparing for a possible pandemic flu outbreak in their agency, Ms. Hall said.

http://tinyurl.com/yekdfh


Most ironic story of the day.

Monotreme – at 22:25

Michigan, USA

Pandemic drill Wednesday will feature vaccine, not a placebo

Is Mason County prepared to perform mass inoculation in the case of a pandemic?

Mason County Emergency Management Coordinator Wally Taranko hopes to answer that question. The county is taking part in a mass inoculation drill Wednesday at Ludington High School and will be administering flu vaccines to volunteers.

[snip]

We’re going to inoculate 200 people in a two-hour timespan … using medical protocols,” Taranko said.

The Mason County Sheriff’s Office, Ludington Police Department, Michigan State Police, District 10 Health Department, Memorial Medical Center, the West Shore Chapter of the American Red Cross, Ludington High School, Mason-Oceana 911, Life EMS and several fire department representatives will be on hand for the drill.

“This is a drill, but it’s something we would do in the case of a pandemic outbreak,” Taranko said.

http://tinyurl.com/y3marh

Monotreme – at 22:30

Vaccine Rationing

Pandemic vaccine rationing proposal favors the young

In a worst-case influenza pandemic, without enough vaccine for everyone, who should stand closer to the front of the line: a 25-year-old water utility worker or a healthy 75-year-old?

Public health officials may have to make difficult decisions such as this, and a Minnesota health ethics group, in publishing recommendations about pandemic vaccine allocation, hopes to get conversations going now, rather than during a crisis.

The vaccine allocation recommendations released last week by the Minnesota Center for Health Care Ethics (MCHCE) look much different from the ones proposed by the federal government. The vaccine rationing recommendation in federal pandemic plan is aimed at saving the most lives, and might favor the healthy 75-year-old over the 25-year-old utility worker.

The Minnesota group’s approach is designed to prevent not only deaths due to influenza, but also deaths related to public infrastructure breakdowns. It is weighted toward those whose immune systems are more likely to respond strongly to a pandemic flu vaccine. As such, it would put the 25-year-old utility worker ahead of the 75-year-old.

[snip]

 The group said the deadly infrastructure collapse that occurred during the Hurricane Katrina disaster influenced them to seek ways to mitigate other effects of the pandemic, not just the flu deaths. “Seeking only to vaccinate those at high risk of influenza-related mortality leaves them and every other Minnesotan unprotected from death due to breakdowns in basic healthcare, public health, and public safety infrastructures,” the report says.

The report emphasizes that approaches to vaccine allocation differ because of different assumptions about pandemic severity. The federal recommendation is based on a moderate pandemic, while the Minnesota group’s plan is based on a severe pandemic, like that of 1918–19, along with an inadequate supply of vaccine.


This is the difference between States that have a chance of survival and those that are doomed. If your state follows CDC guidelines, your odds of surviving a severe pandemic are much lower than if you live in a state that disregards the CDC guidelines and has intelligent public health officials, like Minnesota.

Living in a state/city with intelligent planners maybe the difference between life and death.

lifeisgreat – at 22:41

Anon at 8:04 Thank you for a clear, concise explanation for a very complicated, academic research process that must take place to quantify what is going on as these virus’s develop. I read as most of you also have the article in Scientific American today and let’s just say, “It’s not casual reading material.” Thanks everybody, this site helps me maintain perspective, whatever that is!!!!

On the fence and leaning – at 22:49

Monotreme, Thanks for returning news to the news thread.

Monotreme – at 23:00

On the fence and leaning – at 22:49

You’re welcome.

Monotreme – at 23:04

Pennsylvannia, USA

Hanover Hospital ready for pandemic

Freer said the secret to preventing an avian flu pandemic is to control it early on.

And Hanover Hospital has formed a Pandemic Planning Steering Committee to better the response to any such outbreak in the York-Adams area.

Freer spoke as part of an hour-long presentation at the Hanover Community Health & Education Center. Dr. Joe Bellino, director of safety and security at Hanover Hospital, also spoke. About 40 people attended.

[snip]

Already at Hanover Hospital, people with respiratory illnesses are asked if they’ve recently traveled to any of the Asian countries that have had outbreaks of the avian flu virus, which mainly affects the respiratory system and can cause a person’s lungs to close up.

http://tinyurl.com/y8m2no


Good luck “controlling” a pandemic.

Monotreme – at 23:08

Pennsylvania, USA

Preparing for a flu pandemic

One contender, called H5N1, has already emerged. Its track record is short but bleak, Carole Heilman told an audience at East Stroudsburg University on Monday. Heilman, director of the division of microbiology and infectious diseases at the National Institutes of Health, came to ESU as part of Sanofi Pasteur’s distinguished speaker program to talk about pandemic preparedness.

“It’s not going away and it’s spreading,” Heilman said of H5N1.

This flu strain is found in the fecal matter of birds, chiefly ducks and migratory birds, and spreads to humans who are in close contact with these animals. In humans, it incubates for about eight days. “You could be infected and not even know it,” Heilman said.

[snip]

As dangerous as H5N1 could be, it has not yet become a formal pandemic. To do so, it has to satisfy three conditions. It has already met two of them: H5N1 recently presented itself and infected humans. Now, it needs only spread easily from human to human.

Evidence suggests that this has begun happening, with transmissions documented in Indonesia. But Heilman said such cases were the result of intimate contact with disease carriers, rather than more casual interactions.

[snip]

The lessons of the SARS outbreak in Toronto offer a simpler way to deal with a future pandemic, and one that has been endorsed by scientific journals and the World Health Organization: avoiding human contact.

“One of the things that quelled SARS in Toronto was sequestration,” Heilman said. “People stayed home.”

http://tinyurl.com/ya8ysx

Monotreme – at 23:11

‘California, USA

News briefs from Southern California

County health officials urged school districts and government agencies to continue preparing for the avian flu, even as the sickness’ spread elsewhere in the world slows down.

“It might happen tomorrow. It might happen a year from now. It might happen five years from now,” Sadina Reynaldo, an epidemiologist with the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health, said Monday at a pandemic flu conference.

Contrary to health experts’ expectations, the avian H5N1 virus is slowing in Europe and is unlikely to hit the United States soon, Reynaldo said. But she said government officials and the public should still continue to prepare for a pandemic.

http://tinyurl.com/yc9hgp

Goju – at 23:13

“One of the things that quelled SARS in Toronto was sequestration,” Heilman said. “People stayed home.”

And to do that you have to be prepared with enough food, water and meds, (heat if in north).

lifeisgreat – at 23:59

Monoteme: I thought I was good at tracking the news. I was wrong. You are most excellent. To one and all tonight and always: THANKYOU! I regret I have no more to contribute but this most sincere thank you.

01 November 2006

rph – at 00:45

if there is no new News to report= then it’s a new day.

I’m new here, and I don’t want my grandkids to wind up in any order. These kids need to stay the top and be the top. IF WE need to stay home during a pandemic=- that’s what we’ll do.

AnnieBat 00:55

I will be about another 30 to 40 minutes before I can complete the News Summary, then I will create a new thread.

If it is ‘urgent’ post here in the meantime, otherwise please hold off to the new thread starts

Cheers

Many Cats – at 01:04

rph: Welcome to the Fluwiki. You will find the information here useful in ways you could never imagine. Anything and everything about any kind of self-sufficiency is here in addition to breaking influenza news and forum topics on just about any subject even if only tangentially related to H5N1.

One thing, though…while everyone here is happy that you have used a “name” since hearing from hundreds of different “anonymous” types is a source of aggravation for many, you may want to consider a slightly modified name. We have someone who posts using “RPh” who is a registered pharmacist and many of us look for his/her posts to find out about drug-related issues, so, unless you want to be bombarded with questions about how long you can continue to use a certain drug after its expiration date, you may want to use something that is more uniquely you.

We’re all glad for you and for your grandchildren that you have found the wiki! Careful, though…it can become an obsession. :)

anon_22 – at 04:04

Since this thread is already closed to news, the following is a response and message to Monotreme

Monotreme – at 22:30

This is the difference between States that have a chance of survival and those that are doomed. If your state follows CDC guidelines, your odds of surviving a severe pandemic are much lower than if you live in a state that disregards the CDC guidelines and has intelligent public health officials, like Minnesota.

Thank you for as always your most excellent reporting and gathering together of State plans. Do you live anywhere near Seattle, Lincoln, Nebraska, or Syracuse, NY? With all that you know, you would be an excellent candidate to give your input to the Community Control Measurs consultation being run together with the CDC.

See this thread for details.

bump for Monotreme – at 04:28
Klatu – at 09:04

BIRD FLU: VIRUS NEAR GROSSETO, ITALYHUNDREDS OF WILD DUCKS CULLED

(AGI) - Grosseto, Nov. 1 - “After the discovery of avian influenza yesterday in the Grosseto area, hundreds of animals will be put down. Late yesterday evening, the Health Ministry asked the National Avian Influenza Centre for its advice concerning the whether the ministerial decree DM 22/9/2000 should be urgently applied regarding the wild duck breeding grounds on which bird flu has been found, with the H5 strain and of the N type, still a phase of definition, but having ruled out that it is the “N1″, the most contagious.

The ministerial decree referred to provides for the culling of all the animals on the farm. The Health Ministry made the decision along with the Tuscany regional government and the healthcare body of Grosseto on the way to go about the matter in this specific case, and supplied instructions for the culling itself. In addition to the putting down of the wild ducks, the ministerial orders provide for other measures to limit the likelihood of the spread of the virus, which consist mostly in the establishing of a surveillance zone with a kilometre radius around the farm in question, surveillance which will begin immediately after the ordinance by the mayor of Grosseto and which will last for three weeks after the culling. In the zone the entire bird population will once again be checked, even birds intended for use by single families, as was done previously, since the entire area is inside or very close to a humid zone used by migratory birds. For the period in question, all the animals checked are to be considered under seizure and will have to be kept on the farms, prohibited from coming in or going out, including both the birds themselves and their products, meaning eggs and chicks.

The culling of the farm-bred wild ducks will be carried out within a few days by a specialized firm, and the bodies will be destroyed and buried on the land where they are found after having their bodies disinfected. The owners of the animals culled will be reimbursed for the market value of the animals, established by an ad hoc committee provided for by law in the case of forced culling. “(AGI) .

http://tinyurl.com/tvwvl

MAP:

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.NewsReportsForOctober31
Page last modified on November 01, 2006, at 09:04 AM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Have the Mods Agreed on an Alert Signal

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Have the Mods Agreed on an Alert Signal

19 October 2006

LMWatBullRunat 21:06

Those who set up this site have done tremendous service. The resources available to those smart or lucky enough to read what is available here will doubtless save many lives, and may save national economies.

There is one large task left undone, however, (IMVHO,) and that is for the Moderators to decide on what the signal to the Wiki community will be, if or when the next pandemic appears to have started.

If this has not yet been decided, I would suggest something simple.

Perhaps a color code- “condition Red”.

“The Swan is Dying.”

“Paul Revere is riding to Concord.” (like that one…but it may be too obscure….)

I have the unsettling feeling that we may need this alert in the near future. We could even let each Mod make their own call, so that there would be no need to waste time trying for consensus.

In any case, I hope the mods will take this request under advisement.

Wolf – at 21:11

Much fun has been made of upended swans - but I agree wholeheartedly LMWatBullRun – at 21:06. Time to get serious. I saw a mass email campaign idea on another thread and have to agree (with some) - it would get lost in the spam filters and extraneous junk mails. We need a signal.

Jefiner – at 21:14

I still like Monotreme’s idea of the swan with her little webbed feet pointed at the sky . . .

Trust me, when the SHTF, we won’t need the moderators to tell us . . . it’ll be on all the news channels.

Ottawan – at 21:18

What exactly will be considered the start of the pandemic?

When the total fatalities ticks past a certain number? When the spread moves beyond a certain localized parameter? When it spreads to more than one country? When WHO raises the alert level to 4 or 5?

Wolf – at 21:23

Jefiner – at 21:14 I, too, like the upended swan - really I do. But I disagree completely with “Trust me, when the SHTF, we won’t need the moderators to tell us . . . it’ll be on all the news channels.” By then, it will be too late.

DennisCat 21:27

Jefiner – at 21:14 “we won’t need the moderators to tell us “

You are right. My guess is that when the word starts to spread the internet will slow down to a crawl. FluWiki will not be available to the millions that will be trying to log on, the Ham band will be crackling, the phone lines will be jammed with calls…

I do think that “we” will start to see increase case levels for a week or so before it starts to spread out from some large local cluster. But once it reaches R0 >0 it will travel far and fast.

Wolf – at 21:35

DennisC – at 21:27: I do think that “we” will start to see increase case levels for a week or so before it starts to spread out from some large local cluster. But once it reaches R0 >0 it will travel far and fast. Before it hits the airwaves. I hope to be snug (and unfortunately scared outta my mind) BEFORE it hits the news.

anon_22 – at 21:37

LMWatBullRun – at 21:06

I must say you have a lot more confidence in our ability to predict anything than any of us feel! I can’t of course speak for the other mods but I would be very surprised if any of them feel any other way!

As the head dude (with apologies to Dude, of course) at your DOD so famously said, the problem is “We don’t know what we don’t know.” And if you don’t know what you don’t know, you don’t know what to look out for as a warning sign, and how reliable that might be.

As another analogy, consider the fact that most clinicians get good at diagnosing certain conditions only after a fair amount of real experience. It’s not as if we’ve seen plenty of pandemics, to get that experience. The best you can do is to make only very approximate guesses, but even those ‘educated’ guesses are of necessity based on very underdeveloped science, as we discussed on this thread.

While your trust and confidence is heartening, I believe Flu Wiki is stronger for being decentralized, that the opinions of the mods do not count for more than anyone else’s, and that each person anywhere in the world has potentially as much to offer as another person.

I believe we have gotten to where we are by painstakingly supporting debate based on fact and the quality of the argument, not credentials nor position nor personality. I believe the Wiki is all the stronger for it.

If and when a pandemic starts, there will be lots of uncertainty and anxiety, which is when it will be even more important to stay with these principles. For the benefit of everyone.

Ottawan – at 21:37

Enlighten the ignorant — what is R0>0?

anon_22 – at 21:40

I think Wolf meant R0>1.

DennisCat 21:45

OOPs I meant R0>1. that means that on the average each case can start more than 1 case. If it is <1 then more people are cured or die than are getting sick. If it is >1 then more are getting sick (it spreads and multiplies) than are getting well or die. Once it is R0>1 then it can be a pandemic.

That’s Just Ducky! – at 22:02

I have been wondering of late how you were going to handle that one annon_22! ;) I think there will be a general consensus among those of us who have been following all of this on a daily basis. I also think it would be impossible to accurately pinpoint “when”. I’m okay with saying “when” for my immediate and extended family, but I sure wouldn’t want to have that responsibility for all of Wikidom!

We Wikians are engaged in a joint/cooperative venture with each other here. We will continue to gather our facts, debate their significance, put forth our speculations and theories and through all of this, refine our understanding over time, which is exactly what we’ve been doing for quite some time now.

We all have our ears and eyes pricked up over the course of the last month, and each day our antenae become more sensitive. We suspect now the percolation is heating up, but we will know when the pot boils before anyone else does. So don’t worry about it. :)

Wolf – at 22:06

anon_22 – at 21:40 Was directly quoting DennisC (NEVER misquote unless by accident:) but you are precisely correct in my meaning. I am heartened by your understatement of the ‘power of the wiki’. Despite having had (severe) disagreements at the flow of information here (I have a natural bias toward the ‘banning’ of any discussion - it’s a blessing/curse) I am quite sure that, given the space and bandwidth, any fluwkie readers will have a ‘heads up’ to the ‘swans down’. You, nor any moderators/owners, are responsible for my course of action. The ability to share this information is a triumph and just the sort of thing that I believed in when I plugged in my first Hayes Smartmodem when my 22 year old was an infant (I was DETERMINED to work in my pajamas - ain’t happened yet!) I wish, for many reasons, I was not now working too much - I’d love being a part of this research and discovery and discussion. As it is, I work in 2 disparate fields and in my spare time do my best to add what little I can to the discussion. I am in awe of the work done here. I may owe my life, and the lives of my loved ones, to this work someday. I am sure, absoutely, we’ll know it here first. Thank you. Thank you all.

anon_22 – at 22:09

Just by way of clarification, I personally have absolutely no problem with giving anyone any warning that I believe will save people’s lives.

I just have close to zero confidence that we (the mods) will get the answer sooner or more accurately than the collective wisdom here.

Rural Dweller – at 22:21

If pandemicflu.gov updated more than once over an 11.5 month period of time, maybe we could contemplate a change brewing. If you watch they go in and subtle change sites prep requirements but don’t really state an update; i.e. they dropped 3 months of prescription coverage I guess because insurance would not pay. How about “Red October”, loved that movie.

On the fence and leaning – at 22:26

I am NOT trying to be a downer here but a visual cue may need to be more obvious than flipping the swan picture. I was on here a month before I even looked at the picture. I assume we all see the same color scheme… funny brown/yellow sides with light yellow text box borders. After hours, weeks, MONTHS of looking at these screens, if I ever went to the wiki and there was even a slight shade difference, I would notice. Imagine if the entire scheme changed. It would be very apparent to those who have spent anytime on here. I read somewhere earlier that some felt it wise to fly under the radar, so to speak, to avoid having the site pulled by TPTB to control information. To someone that hasn’t been on constantly, the change of colors might not mean anything. Sounds far fetched. I am repeating another thread.

Wolf – at 22:27

AAARrgh! AREN’T responsible ! “…are NOT responsible for my course of action… going to bed now. jeez.

NW – at 22:27

So you think this is going to be a big secret that only a few select will know about and then they should secretly transmit this information to the other elite in this forum? WOW! Spy vs Spy stuff. I would suggest to you that there is no need for codes or special observers. Just watch the news for a few thousand folks hacking up their freaking lungs being reported on CNN in Indonesia. Then start stringing the barbed wire around your house.

Wolf – at 22:27

Wolf – at 22:06 AAARrgh! AREN’T responsible ! “…are NOT responsible for my course of action… going to bed now. jeez.

That’s Just Ducky! – at 22:29

Wolf – at 22:27

LOL

cottontop – at 22:29

another thing I’d like to set out for an idea; is if and when this is all over, and we come out on the other side, let’s agree to regroup here, perhaps on this same site, or agree to change the name, ect. While we are enduring this pandemic survival, we all here will be wondering how each of us are doing, and when power is gone, we loose contact with each other. it’ll be like loosing contact with family members. Is this something that we can arrange ahead of time? I’m all for the singal from mods. Reason being, sometimes I don’t see what others see, and it takes me awhile to catch up. So if you can say to yourself, “it’s time.” than the rest of us need to hear from you, whomever you will be.

anon_22 – at 22:32

Wolf – at 22:27 ,

I completely missed it. Even after you corrected it I had to read it twice to find it.

I__NEED__SLEEP

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

DennisCat 22:35

I think that we will see almost everyone’s PPF go to near 10 (remember 10 on the PPF scale means they expect the MSM will announce within 24 hours) and Tom will announce he is prepping and Bill will announce he bought a case of that special med.

anon_22 – at 22:36

DennisC – at 22:35

and Tom will announce he is prepping

now THAT would be a sign…

… of what I have no idea.

<g>

Milo – at 22:37

I like the alert signal:

That just sort of sums it up in my mind.

Bronco Bill – at 22:38

From what I’ve seen and read in past threads, the Mods have stated that once they know for sure (either through MSM or WHO or Pandemic.gov or some other up-to-date fool-proof source) they would have nice big RED LETTERS announcing big news both on the front page of the Wiki and the Forum.

The government, other boards, and our very knowledgeable Mods here have all stated that they don’t have a crystal ball to see into the future. All they can do is wait and listen to the official announcements, just like the rest of us…

cottontop – at 22:29 --- I’ve already been told by many here on FluWiki that I’m holding a huge party at the other end and I will be supplying the RWFK!! ;-)

That’s Just Ducky! – at 22:41

NW – at 22:27

I am still ROTFLMAO at your post, it was so funny!

But about what you said; quite so. I’m only hoping to have a couple days advance warning before they close the freeways at the state boundaries so I can get out of the city. Which I think we may have. Personally, I don’t have to be 100% sure before I head for the hills, so I won’t be waiting until it’s practically on CNN. A few more of the “1000′s with pneumonia, blood gushing out their noses, dropping dead where they stand” type news stories, and that will do it for me!

cottontop – at 22:46

bronco Bill- I like the red letter idea. I think it would be the perfect signal. foolproof? no idenity theft?

We are going to need that huge party when it’s all said and done. I’ll bring the crispy cream donughts. (by then I will have figured out how to perserve them!)

Wolf – at 22:48

cottontop – at 22:29 (and thanks for the understanding That’s Just Ducky! – at 22:29= I’ m such a putz!) Cottontop - I ‘ve brought this up before - if everything holds up, we’ll meet up here in the ether. But if it doesn’t hold, we’ve had discussions on how we’d know we’d all made it. It became a ‘meetup” (which is great!) But I’d kinda like a place , if it all broke down, that I could go to and see maybe postards or notes or letters dated __/__/__ “Monotreme - I made it!” “Medical Maven -Ain’t got me yet” etc. A place of hope - SHOULD it breakdown, not saying it will. I’d just love to have a place to go to see y’all have made it through. I proferred the idea of a bar sometime ago, but those might not hold up in the worst case. Maybe a museum somewhere? They’ve got bulletin boards someplace too? I dunno. Still think we should maybe think the unthinkable - hopefully.

Bronco Bill – at 22:51

cottontop – at 22:46 --- Old Krispy Kream doughnuts? Dehydrated? Don’t bother…if they ain’t fresh and warm, they ain’t worth dunking! LOL!!!! We’ll learn how to make our own doughnuts from the leftover rice, beans and powdered milk!! ROTFLMAO ;-)

Green Mom – at 22:52

Nw- umm, I beleive there are thousands of seriously ill folks in India and havn’t seen anything about it on CNN. I don’t know that I’d say they were “hacking up their freaking lungs” but folks dropping dead in Nepal is something I thought might be reported be reported in the MSM. Not so.

TIN HAT ALERT!!!! I admit to being a little paranoid about TPTB shutting this site down… I also share Cottontops concern about being scattered. I have tried to post my profile several times with my e-mail but I must just be a complete idiot because I cannot get it to work, anyway I thought if the site were to go down, maybe we could e-mail each other.

cottontop – at 22:58

bronco bill- at 22:51

dude, I have a serious sweet tooth that don’t care if it’s dehydrated, fresh or warm!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 23:03

anon_22 – at 22:36 DennisC – at 22:35 and Tom will announce he is prepping now THAT would be a sign… … of what I have no idea. <g>

It’ll be a sign on someone spending big bucks on inflated prices on everything!

anon_22 – at 23:13

Green Mom – at 22:52

TIN HAT ALERT!!!! I admit to being a little paranoid about TPTB shutting this site down

Why would they want to do that? Those who read us will also want the same thing y’all want…info.

Those who don’t read us…most of them don’t know we exist.

Those who know we exist, don’t read us, but want to shut us down will become very unpopular among the first category, whom they will still need to work together through a pandemic.

What was it they said about ‘cutting the nose to spite the face’?

anon_22 – at 23:15

I have a feeling that they might want us to stay up.

Now let me see…where’s my wishlist gone?

On the fence and leaning – at 23:16
anon_22 – at 23:18

Did you lean too far?

Green Mom – at 23:25

Anon-22-hey how should I know why they would want to shut this sight down? I’m paranoid….. ;-)

cottontop – at 23:33

why would they want to shut down? don’t like the sound of that. also, was thinking, without power, and it’s cash only, expect price hikes. Probably will need a little more extra cash. I think I have a few pennies.

no name – at 23:38

I am going in and shutting the doors when the first case is in the USA. I am ready, when “it” comes doesn’t make any difference. I will always be ready.

That’s Just Ducky! – at 23:40

anon_22 – at 23:15

Yeah, they want us to stay up. How the hell else are they going find out what’s going on?

Texas Rose – at 23:49

Well, if I come here and the site is down or there have been NO posts for, say, 24 hours, I’ll know y’all have gone to ground and it’s time I do the same.

You could just post a big image of lips for “Kiss your puckered butt goodbye” but that might seem a tad fatalistic.

Walrus – at 23:55

I guess I’ll know when I hear TPTB tell us there is nothing to worry about! I’d like to see this site stay up. If it goes down I will know that a pandemic has started.

20 October 2006

DennisCat 00:00

Remember to not get to excited if it goes down since some time we may go to the “new system” with registering, and so on. I would think it might have to go down then. I think that as it hits the entire web will start to go down or at least slow way down as everyone is looking for info, contacting “grandma” and friends, trying to work from home and so on.

Texas Rose – at 00:09

You mean if the site goes down, we shouldn’t consider that the red alert, firm our jaws, and lock the doors and windows?

Well, then strike that as a signal. You could still go with the lips thing. Or the sunny-side up swan. I’m flexible.:D

anon_22 – at 00:22

The World Economic Forum Pandemic Simulation exercise reports that “some experts opined that the internet would shut down within two to four days of the outbreak”

The report is well worth reading, cos its base on Day 28 of a pandemic, so there’s no need to go into ‘is it happening or not’ but directly into critical policies.

The report is here and is another one of those you should keep and review from time to time, IMO.

pogge – at 00:32

some time we may go to the “new system” with registering, and so on

If there’s to be a planned outage, you’ll be notified in advance. And when we do move to a new platform, my hope would be to run the old and the new in parallel so people can adjust and possibly have a place to bring their questions if they’re having trouble with the new software.

That said, don’t panic if we just disappear. Servers and assorted other hardware can break just like anything else.

anonymous – at 00:47

let’s start our own pandemometer, measuring the pandemic threat in USA for a -say- one year foresight. Each poster has an account, where she/he can always update her/his panflu-clock and the software permanently displays the average. If fluwiki can’t do it, we can just link to another site, there are free sites which can do it.

An extra feature were to weight your clock by the number of your fluwiki posts, or better the number of letters posted to fluwiki(+forum).

anonymous – at 00:52

pogge wrote:
“don’t panic if we just disappear”


you can always go to fluwiki2
or, if you don’t like that, pogge, please create another forum where we can meet when you just disappear.

Doug Baker – at 03:55

If I waited until the MSM (news) was reporting the start, then I missed the boat. I am not prepping yet, because this thing may be years, months, days? later. I just don’t have the funds to prep like I should. So I am using a just in time strategy to get what I need just in time before the general population goes into panic mode. I am depending on this community to my trip wire. I am sure, you (all of you) will figure out when a real threat is starting before the news gets around to reporting it. That will my window to get what I need. But I am busy and don’t have an hour a day to read the treads, the news ones, the dicussion ones. So any clear single that I would see when I loaded the forum main page, would be most welcome. Then I can read more to get the details. You know those atomic scientist with their doomsday clock. We need something similar. The doomday clock only moves when something big happens that increases the risk. IF we had something similar, then we all could see if we are getting closer? or farther away. The critera could be a mix of facts, actual numbers and reports and gut feeling. I know no one has the exactd answer and we all have an opion or idea. I would suggest a small group of the regulars just score a 1–5 rating on how close are we. Post the average on the main page. We could nominate and the mods could pick the group. But I am sure we all know who here has knowlege and expertise. So as events changes, the average would change and it represent the group consensus. Just like the stock market, where the DOW is just an average of 30 stocks, it gives some idea of the direction of the market.

crfullmoon – at 06:07

(Doug Baker, -and Tom DVM- Hi Tom! :-)) (Hm; Tom Baker! Now there was a Doctor Who…)

( Pandemic is a real threat; enough you should at least try and skip a few non-essentials that add up, for a couple of weeks, and think what you really might regret not having, whether for you it is some addition to your meds or first aid kit, or a way to have safe water to drink, or masks and some sort of bug-out bag you keep with you to and from work; some other thing that may keep you safe®, or, that you’d wish you’d gotten taken care of first.)

“10 on the PPF scale means they expect the MSM will announce within 24 hours”

Guess I’ve been thinking 10 means “time to SIP”; I wasn’t going to wait for a probably-too-late official announcement; still seems like the game plan is Not get people ready, not have them get their debts and finances and preps in order, and then, hope they still go to work, and still show up to volunteer at influenza specialty care units, (which they’ll need, because people didn’t know to try not to get exposed, nor get the schools closed early enough) and, spontaneously come up with unprepared smooth responses to mass fatality surges over the next few quarters.

I’m not going somewhere else, if Flu Wiki wasn’t here, (for goodness’ sake!) but, if the internet was having problems, I’d start checking the HAM radio frequencies. (Though ideally, we’d all get a phone call from Dr.Nabarro - just kidding- Good luck, sir! ) saying, “Time to hunker down!”

crfullmoon – at 06:09

safe®, ? How’d I type that? Hm, the magic of Flu Wiki… Time for that second cup of coffee…

Commonground – at 07:23

Speaking from a “news hounds” point of view - If I happen to state that I can’t keep up with the cases - as there are too many - THAT DOES NOT MEAN ANYTHING. It just means “we need more news hounds”. If I don’t post anything for a week - THAT DOES NOT MEAN I’VE GONE UNDERGROUND. It may mean I just need a break. I will be moving soon, December 2nd, and my life will be in turmoil. Because I’m moving 2 States away. So, I won’t be posting news for a while. Just so you know…….

janetn – at 07:47

A pandemic is not going to have a disernable start point. Its going to creep up on us over days and maybe weeks. I dont know how you would have an alert system for that type of situation. Were going to have a sinking feeling in the bottom of our gut as we watch it unfold. No warning is going to be nessasary Im afraid.

janetn – at 07:47

A pandemic is not going to have a disernable start point. Its going to creep up on us over days and maybe weeks. I dont know how you would have an alert system for that type of situation. Were going to have a sinking feeling in the bottom of our gut as we watch it unfold. No warning is going to be nessasary Im afraid.

Ruth – at 07:55

I think it may be that many people here may have a collective gut feeling, and they could discuss it. Then we could keep a closer eye on wiki for the next 24 hours, doing some of our last minute preps. Once the media announces the pandemic, for a while I think people may not believe it. It’s like when the sirens go off for a tornado, and many people ignore them. It won’t happen here. I really do believe that we will have the heads up we need. I don’t think it will be one situation that will signal the beginning, but maybe a few clusters that we will be watching and then over a day or so saying to ourselves, this doesn’t look good. Most here will agree on it, I will be on my way to Walmart.

Average Concerned Mom – at 08:04

I can’t explain this well but I will try.

If I understand correctly, what we are seeing in Indonesia is H2H transimssion but at an R0 of less than 1. So — small clusters of cases which will eventually “die out” — so sorry for the terminology and me heart goes out to those affected. But these cases are not starting a panmdeic. (Don’t know about what’s going on elsewhere.)

As the virus adapts to humans, the R0 will go up, and eventually it is expected the virus will become more transmissable — TSHRTF.

But meanwhile, what happens if someone with a relatively low R0-type virus gets on a place and comes to say Chicago? Small clusters, maybe even 25 people come down with “bird flu” and because it is in Chicago and elsewhere it is very noticeable. We fluwikians announce “time to SIP!” and ut everything into action. Everyone very tense… but 3 to 4 weeks later, the situatino here is under control. The cluster burned itself out.

Now everyone in America thinks the threat is over, and will not begin to listen; and those who SIPped at the very first sign of a trigger have run through their preps, burned their bridges at work, etc. thinking this was it.

Does this make any sense? I’m thining without airtravel, a pandemic spreads widely when the R0 reaches a certain level. But with the addition of air travel, you *could* have the disease spread faster by plane than it would be able to on it’s own — i.e before it has become a pandemic strain, but just enough to get noticed….

Please help me makes sense of this if you get what I am trying to say.

Commonground – at 08:10

Average Concerned Mom - I do get what you are saying. Can’t weigh in though, have no expertise on the subject. I think you make a very valid point. In your case scenerio, it would be much like the normal flu. And if it happened during flu season…..what makes it so different? Scarey.

Average Concerned Mom – at 08:14

No, that’s not what I was saying — I’m saying H5N1 could arrive, and be severe — high death rate and all — but not yet be the big pandemic strain that we all fear. COuldn’t it? It could be of the variety that they have in Indonesia right now (I suspect) H2H2H trasnmission but at a low enough infection rate that it would burn itself out even without much intervention.

If it happened NOT during regular flu season — or if hospital saw the symptoms (like SARS, I guess ? Very severe ) and being on high alert tested for H5N1 and got positives (though not sure how likely that is, given all the false negatives…) anyhow, that would be big news — but it would be too early, actually the strain that will develop into a pandemic could be weeks or months away.

lugon – at 08:25

That scenario might be good news in the long run. We can’t know. Food for thought for journalists?

janetn – at 08:31

Concerned Mom Our society is highly mobil and we tend to gather in large groups on a regular basis. Indonesia and other third world countries dont have Wal Marts large schools office complexes and so forth. This IMO is one reason we are not seeing the virus spread faster. Tamiflu blankets therefore have some chance of success. Here in western culture its a different story. By the time a case is identified it will be impossible to contact trace everyone. One trip to the grocery store, mall, school ect. will insure that the cat is out of the bag.

We can always hope though.

nameless this time – at 09:54

This is not a race and there will be not starter’s pistol going bang. I have a non-prepper friend who wants to come to my house when it happens. He has lots of guns. He wants to rob the local food stores to get all we need. If you do that and you are astute enough to see it coming first you will be facing the police. Hypothetically, how are you going to tell your spouse and boss you are not going to work because 500 people have say simultanesously sick and dying thousands of miles away? It will depend on velocity of geographic spread.

I believe if the WHO changes the pandemic stage or any sustained clustering happens it should be posted on the front page prominently.

Annoyed Max- Not mad yet – at 10:20

You should not have to try and convince your family of anything when 500 people die. At this point they should be on board with you and understand whats going on.

As a signal, how about a water mark across every page your reading. Its in the background so as to not be too annoying if you have to read something but hard to miss.

LauraBat 10:28

Since the internet or this site could easily crash, even in advance of MSM warnings, shuld we have bakups like email and/or phone chains? I know that some people are unfortable with giving out ANY kind information, but realistically you might not be able to get on line at all. Having phone chains set up for different areas of the country (matching up wikians with each other geographically)then the mods call 5 people, those 5 people call 5 people, etc. Obviously email would be preferred and we should set that up as wlel, but I have more faith in my local phone company than my cable company. I’d be happy to help organize something.

uk bird – at 10:37

LOL. If the internet was down due to BF panic I wouldn’t be waiting by the phone. I’d be trampling over some little old lady for the last tin of spam ;→

Grace RN – at 11:07

Pardon my completely sick sense of humor, but a simple cartoon-type character of a dead duck works just great for me (why not start ‘IT’ off with a smile?)

any fluwikians have great artistic talent? I failed stick figure 101.

Edna Mode – at 11:08

nameless this time – at 09:54 This is not a race and there will be not starter’s pistol going bang. I have a non-prepper friend who wants to come to my house when it happens. He has lots of guns. He wants to rob the local food stores to get all we need.

Yikes. I’d get some new friends fast.

Annoyed Max- Not mad yet – at 10:20 You should not have to try and convince your family of anything when 500 people die. At this point they should be on board with you and understand whats going on.

Wouldn’t that be nice. My immediate family understands the threat. Unfortunately, my children are taking this more seriously than their adult cousins, aunts, and uncles. I finally gave up sending out info to them after my sister announced she’s traveling to India for two weeks in December. Her logic: The people she is visiting are in the upper caste and “aren’t affected by these types of things.” And this woman is in microbiology. Unfathomable.

Grace RN – at 11:22

De-nial ain’t just a river in Egypt……

Sailor – at 11:57

DennisC – at 00:00

Just currious, why are you considering going to a registering system when the one of the better points of Fluwiki is its anonymity?

Dude – at 12:00

My guess is that a wiki poster will start a thread aptly named, The Pandemic Has Started!, and it will be at the top of the list and we will all be there and within an hour it will be on part 76. So, I don’t think anyone will have to search very far. We may not know virology in detail, but we can see the data of epidemiology and therefore can call a duck a duck and a human a human and if they are sick or dead we do know that. And stop taking my name in vein…grin. I think lateral communication during an outbreak is a very big problem, for us, for first responders, for medical and food delivery. So, I don’t know if I will be able to get news from across town, never mind across a nation. I don’t think we will be able to stay in touch…the internet will go down. But, I am going to yell to my next door neighbor and have them yell to theirs and so on, asking if Grace RN and everyone else is ok and to get right back to me, because I have a question. Grin.

DennisCat 12:11

Sailor – at 11:57

It is not I that makes such choices. It is my understanding that the change has been planned for some time. It will reduce the problem with spammers. I don’t think it would keep us from anonymity from anyone but the mods and they (at least pogge) already have our location and ISP.

SIPCT – at 12:47

Sheeple wait to be told what to do and when to do it. I would expect Fluwikians to do their own thinking.

That’s Just Ducky! – at 13:23

DennisC – at 12:11

By ISP, do you mean internet service provider, or do you really mean IP address, which is the unique string of characters that identifies an individual Pc. Actually, I guess Pogge would have the answer to this as well.

That’s Just Ducky! – at 13:25

SIPCT – at 12:47

You make an excellent point.

Commonground – at 13:32

Dude - at 12:00 - LOL!!!!!

“The Pandemic Has Started!, and it will be at the top of the list and we will all be there and within an hour it will be on part 76……

Oremus – at 14:01

Dude – at 12:00

I don’t know about part 76; I think even the most prepped will be doing a last minute store run if they can reasonably beat the mob.

That is if it comes out of the blue of course.

Oremus – at 14:04

Actually that might be an indicator, fluwiki traffic goes to zero as people go to their bunkers, the store, etc.

Dennis in Colorado – at 14:52

Texas Rose – at 00:09 Or the sunny-side up swan.

I submit that the swan is currently sunny side up. We watch for that day when she goes over easy.

AnnieBat 15:15

I must admit that I get a wee tad on the nervous side when both the NewsNow website and FluWiki go unavailable - why the sudden rush on these two sites?, what am I missing? It has happened twice this week - not good for blood pressure!

The signal? We can see it for ourselves I am sure. When an area known to have BF in people starts going nuts as the Dengue is doing in India, we will know - in fact with our wonderful news hounds we will be the first to know.

What I do think we need to do is ‘circle the wagons’ and post guards looking out in every direction. If we just look at Indonesia we are likely to get shot in the back! (Perhaps we need volunteers to take a small region of the world each and watch all news items? I think this would be more pertinent as winter approaches up north.)

Bronco Bill – at 15:51

That’s Just Ducky! – at 13:23

By ISP, do you mean internet service provider, or do you really mean IP address, which is the unique string of characters that identifies an individual Pc. Actually, I guess Pogge would have the answer to this as well.

ISP is Internet Service Provider; IP address the unique string of hex numbers that are assigned to your individual computer by the ISP, identifying your computer on the Internet or any other network.

Registration would help to eliminate most of the SPAM and other issues. Nearly all users would be able to register using their current handles, if memory serves me correctly.

cottontop – at 16:01

AnnieB @ 15:15

I think that’s a good idea. volunteer, or aske to be assigned an area. I do believe “circle the wagons” is the next phase we need to be heading in right now, and stay there for as long as it takes. I think we should start lining up to pick or be assigned an area. If you want you can start with me.

DennisCat 17:27

The fact that we have this thread and discussion signals-to me at least- that some think that it is getting closer.

crfullmoon – at 17:39

(But it seems like people wish we could know for sure, and I’m pretty sure there will be no clear way to know for sure, at least, as soon as we, or the mods, would like to. We get a bit nervous sometimes and tend to start all get more nervous just because others are nervous.

I’d say, don’t get distracted by wishing for a way to get notified. We’re “on own own”, more than anyone can feel comfortable all the time contemplating. Just keep muddling through.)

cottontop – at 20:16

crfullmoon- I do agree with your point. It’s just I don’t want to be the first to panic, when it’s not time to panic. Or someone else jumps the gun. We all so far have kept each other from the brink of panic. Being jumpy is running high. I don’t think we are really getting distracted, it’s just if we had some way of agreeing that it’s time in advance, we’d all have some comfort zone, relief, whatever you would like to call it. A sense of order. I still agree with AnnieB @ 15:15. It’s something we should push on with.

Jody – at 21:35

I’m in disbelief that for months I’ve been staring at the swans as soon as the page loads…and it hasn’t actually MEANT anything????

21 October 2006

AnnieBat 01:56

Cottontop and my previous post at 15:15

Okay, I am prepared to do some thinking about how best we ‘manage’ all this news gathering then I will start an appropriate thread with some information etc and ask for volunteers. It means tracking down local news sources and perhaps getting some translations done etc. Leave it with me - give me 24 hours (tomorrow’s weather looks really ugly so I won’t be golfing and can give it some thought!).

LMWatBullRunat 12:05

Anon_22 et al:

I agree that the mods are no more omniscient than the rest of us, but you are monitoring this site regularly; that is part of the moderator function. This site is rather like a Quaker meeting; everyone has a voice and the right to speak (within agreed-upon limits), but just like a Quaker meeting, there are elders who help guide the community discussion.

I agree that the point of absolute certainty will be past the point of the actual start of a pandemic; there will likely be lots of “noise” to mask the actual start, but there may be a point where there is consensus among the moderators that there is in fact a pandemic before the MSM pick it up. That would be useful for folks like me who do not have the time we’d like to spend monitoring every news item.

My suggestion is that the moderators agree upon an alert signal, or perhaps a couple of them, to let the rest of us know that things appear to be rapidly deteriorating to a pandemic. Perhaps the color code suggested above, or maybe even a post entitled “VERY LARGE CLUSTERS”.

I would love to subscribe to an email alert for this, too…..

Bird Guano – at 12:21

How about Elvis has left the building

DennisCat 12:30

the “code” for our family is: the chicken has flown the coop.

Anon_451 – at 18:44

Ok Here is my suggestion:

On the title page of the Wikie.

If this is your first visit you need to go here:

Help I Only have 24 Hours to Prepare

Reader – at 20:48

I vote for every warning signal that is possible, ducks feet up, red letters, and every other idea that has been mentioned here. It would also be nice if the pages waiver in and out with a siren going off loudly too.

Remember to look for the larger picture warning signs. Bush goes on an unscheduled vacation to Texas, rich and famous not out and about, world leaders cancelling summits and such. There will be lots of warning signs before the news tells the public. The news media is controlled by big corporations and so watch what the CEO’s are doing. There will be a rouge or 2 reporters who will have the balls to tell us, but the media will come down fast and hard telling us that there is no basis for their “opinion”, but believe them anyway.

Madamspinner – at 20:50

I think the swan going belly up is appropriate, with the “Fluwiki” title under it in big red letters.

Lurker Mom – at 21:54

Reader at 20:48

I agree and I would add that we should watch the stock market. Any unusually large stock sell offs should be a red flag to us. They may indicate that people who “know” are trying to sell off just in time.

JWB – at 22:06

Green .om – at 22:52 (a few days ago)

… I have tried to post my profile several times with my e-mail but I must just be a complete idiot because I cannot get it to work,….


I couldn’t pass this up. Green Mom, what you are experiencing is something that occurs with me constantly. It’s known as the ‘ID ten T ‘ error. Hope that helps! 8-D

Oremus – at 23:16

The Sky is falling - Chicken Little

cottontop – at 23:49

change the background color from this gold to RED.

22 October 2006

anonymous – at 00:24

why do you want a 1-bit signal ? This is much less informative than a measure on some scale.


Don’t expect a clear pandemic yes/no signal. Some will say, the pandemic has started, some will say it can be contained. So allow for a 180° rotation of the swan and when there is a cluster of 100 people with confirmed H5N1-infection in some Indonesian town, then the fluwiki-swan rotates by maybe 90° - someone would vote on the exact angle.

Texas Rose – at 00:28

An appropriate signal: The forum renamed “Texas Rose, it’s time.”

Well, it would be appropriate to ME.;)

How about an audio signal? A “Star Trek”-like red alert klaxon would do.

Olymom – at 00:50

I can envision the poor fluwiki swan doing 360′s as people decide yes-its-on then no-its-dengue etc.

AnnieBat 23:26

Okay, I have done the homework as promised above and started a new thread called Volunteers Needed as Lookouts Worldwide

23 October 2006

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 08:41

Olymom ¨C at 00:50 I can envision the poor fluwiki swan doing 360¡äs …….. That’s like a rottessorie isn’t it? Cooked swan…..

crfullmoon – at 08:55

I think the bird you mean is, “our goose is cooked”.

25 October 2006

cottontop – at 07:34

Has there been a discion on the alert signal? Need to get that done.

Mods,please address – at 08:51

I hope the mods will realize we are counting on their input here.

Bronco Bill – at 09:01

From what I remember, when this question came up several months ago, is that the Mods said there would most likely be, in LARGE BOLD RED LETTERS, a notice at the top of the Main Wiki page and the top of the Main Forum page. Probably at the top of most of the Wiki/Forum pages.

Edna Mode – at 09:02

I’m sure the mods realize we are counting on their input, but I think it is an unfair burden on the mods to expect them to be responsible for sending a signal to the rest of this community. It is up to we, the hive, to determine what is going on and whether we think a certain set of circumstances is “it.” And it is up to each of us to determine for ourselves whether the time has come to SIP. No two circumstances are the same. The depth and breadth of discussions on every topic from recipes to respirators demonstrates that.

While the mods may be better tapped into more authoritative sources than some of us here, and I sure hope they share their perspective in a clearly titled thread if they feel the situation is materially worsening, they don’t have a crystal ball.

Regulars to this site and others, such as Effect Measure, should know what the telltale signs are by now. Many here are watching for them. And I expect we would know as soon as anyone—mod or otherwise—when it’s time to draw the shades.

Just my $0.02.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 09:35

crfullmoon – at 08:55 I think the bird you mean is, “our goose is cooked”.

I think at that point, I would’t eat either!

cottontop – at 09:36

Edna Mode- While I do agree with you, I also think that this is a way to keep pandemonium, anxiety, and nail biting in check. We here have a tendency to get panicky, and it’s just a natural group response to appoint someone who seems more level headed, and I believe that’s what we’ve done here, appointing the modes to give us an alert when they, in their infinate wisdom, can safely say, “Hey folks this is really getting scarey.” However, each individual will determine what action will be appropriate when they feel the time is has come. I for one echo the requests that in order to keep order in this group, we need an alert guideline, and I do believe those big ole bold red letters that just about blinded me, will do the trick for a heading on the forum page. This is just how I feel on a personal level.

Malachi – at 10:13

I remember Melanie saying what bronco bill relayed.”The mods would be screaming it in red letters if they thought a panflu had started”

I agree with edna mode that we will all have to decide when It has started by our own standards.

I agree with cottontop that it is good to have this all worked out beforehand so we can all ( in this big ole fluwikie club) have our heads up,no matter how small or short of a heads up that may be.

I agree with Mods please address at 8;51 that I would love to hear a mod weight in on this.Let us know if they have a plan or do not wish to be put on the line like that.If I remember right the Reveres are silent partners of the fluwikie or something like that.If our mods are conferencing with the reveres then surely we could have some type of credible heads up.Maybe if we start talking politics on this thread we could get some attention and response about it all ;)

cottontop – at 10:45

Malachi- I guess I’m trying to say, is that we can”t have 20 different people running in different directions on here in a panic, and the others don’t see a panic. Do you see what pandemonium that would cause? We are going to have to have some way to keep forum order when everyone feels the alert is getting near. The sooner we get this settled the better.

anonymous – at 10:51

“A poor plan is better than no plan”

We ought to have a plan.

Bronco Bill – at 11:00

cottontop – at 10:45 --- I believe the Mods will conference in with Revere and others before deciding to make any announcement regarding TS Hitting TF.

I do not believe that any single Moderator will take it upon him/herself to just throw a big announcement out there without consulting with other experts first.

It’s better to take a “wait and see” attitude and get all the facts straight, instead of panicing at the drop of a hat.

cottontop – at 11:05

Bronco Bill- I agree.

NoFluingAroundat 23:54

Commonground – at 07:23

My hope is that the mods and fellow Fluwikians alike, post their desideratum to SIP, when they think danger is abreast. That in itself would be a colossal sign for the group to gear into high alert mode.

26 October 2006

Pixie – at 00:07

I don’t think that the mods will need to post a pandemic alert - there is no chance that the beginning of a pandemic would be missed by a single one of you.

anon_22 – at 00:57

I understand that everybody wants our input. However, i’ve said my piece. I read through the thread, thought about it, and am still of the same opinion.

Melanie is still off sick. If you want Dem’s opinion, maybe you can post a question on the ‘Ask the mod’ thread.

Perhaps this revelation might help. I gave a presentation the other day at the National Academy on FluWiki. As a result of preparing for that, I went through the reasons why this community works. The best model is still the one from the book ‘The Wisdom of Crowds’ , and I will quote from my slides, which btw, are available for download from the ftp, or will be shortly whenever Dem has put them up.

The Wisdom Of Crowds. James Surowiecki (2004)

What makes a crowd smart? There are 4 essential components:

  1. Diversity of opinion - Each person should have private information even if it’s just an eccentric interpretation of the known facts.
  2. Independence - People’s opinions aren’t determined by the opinions of those around them.
  3. Decentralization - People are able to specialize and draw on local knowledge.
  4. Aggregation - Some mechanism exists for turning private judgments into a collective decision.

Under these conditions, the collective judgement of the crowd is likely to be far superior than the judgement of any one member.

anon_22 – at 00:59

And we have not been conferencing on risk assessment, and don’t see the need to. If and when conditions change, we will definitely do that, but right now, none of us feel that is necessary.

anon_22 – at 01:09

Going back to early on in this thread, the reference as to whether TPTB will want to shut us down, or that they want us to stay up cos they need the info.

Today an extremely senior scientist/professor said to me, on hearing that I’m from FluWiki, “you’re the people who gives everybody the latest news, right?” in a very matter of fact way, like he’s just trying to verify who I was.

In his mind, “FluWiki = people who gives the latest news” is already well-established and unquestioned.

Doesn’t that tell you somethimg?

If we don’t know on this forum, no one else will know, probably.

Reader – at 01:17

anon_22 – at 00:59, “And we have not been conferencing on risk assessment, and don’t see the need to. If and when conditions change, we will definitely do that, but right now, none of us feel that is necessary.”

Gosh, I really hope these aren’t famous last words! :>)

btw, something happened when I opened a new thread - What Was Life Like in 1918 - and it is longer than my screen. Can you fix it? Sorry…probably due to my cut and paste.

enza – at 01:23

anon-22: FluWiki = people who gives the latest news” is already well-established and unquestioned.

Doesn’t that tell you somethimg?

If we don’t know on this forum, no one else will know, probably.

Inversly, if you didn’t want certain information out to the public, you could manipulate Flu Wiki?

anon_22 – at 01:26

enza,

We have lots of people posting information on this forum. In fact, anyone who has access to the internet. We do not have a mechanism to screen off posts. How specifically do you imagine Fluwiki can be manipulated? And for what purpose?

anon_22 – at 01:28

OK, let me ask everyone a question. Why this sudden anxiety? What is it that has changed that is causing you guys to feel the need for extra validation?

enza – at 01:44

Suppose for a minute that a change in phases was planned, but it was leaking out before the ‘due date’. All you would need are two or three very convincing ‘skeptics’ who are prolific posters (on FW) to ridicule, dismiss, and discredit the rumor. It’s that easy, and I am not even a tin foil hat owner.

To be honest, I have checked everywhere I can think of and called in a few personal favors to people who whould get a heads up, nobody has heard anything.

So maybe there is just a collective anxiety because of all the ‘viral hemmoragic fevers’, pneumonias, mystery diseases, etc. that are testing -ve for dengue, chickungunya, etc. but are killing scores of people…

AnnieBat 01:46

anon_22 at 01:28 - why the sudden anxiety? I honestly don’t think there is greater anxiety - i think perhaps it is more that people are ‘thinking ahead’ - I may be wrong (again). There was mention yesterday (?) when WHO released their revised global plan that words like “may” and “might” had been removed.

As you have already mentioned, this site is THE site for news, so people are exposed more regularly to BF information than they could possibly see elsewhere. Coming to this site most definitely allows me to assess for myself if the situation has deteriorated and I certainly do not see any sign of that. I do know this is the only place where I could gather sufficient information to make such an assessment though.

The idea behind having the lookout posts was to ensure we remain fully informed and can continue to make assessments of the situation - certainly not to over-react to a snippet somewhere - IMHO anyway.

As always, thanks for your magnificent work.

Bronco Bill – at 05:50

anon_22 – at 01:28 --- Why this sudden anxiety? I think the answer lies in the fact that there are some folks on the board who are certain that PanFlu will occur this winter; those folks are looked up to and listened to, and their word taken for fact in all cases.

crfullmoon – at 06:32

And perhaps it is just human nature to wish for a clear signal as to what is really going on, (so no one gets caught in the wrong place at the wrong time) which, perfectly-timed true warning, I don’t think it is exactly possible to have.

Edna Mode – at 09:02 and Pixie at 00:07, I agree.

Oh, and “asking the Flu Wiki mods for a signal”: y’all have trust and credibilty at this point;

since the whole purpose is, you think it would be “bad outcome” for the public and communities to be unprepared for disruptions and only know and react to a pandemic year once it is for-sure in-progress in our regions. (Unlike my local officials, who I might be able to toss farther than I trust them at this point in time.) (not that I will do either)

Commonground – at 06:46

It has been a very slow week during Ramaden. If next week, we on the Indo Outbreak thread, should report 10 new cases, say 20 new cases, we have to remember to keep everything in perspective. Maybe someone should start a thread for the newbies, on how a pandemic would unfold, as far as cumulative cases go. I think that would relieve a lot of anxiety. We who have been around (and I’ve only been studying this since last February)….understand how fast it would start. But we have to remember there are new people coming aboard everyday who don’t quite understand yet.

I agree with AnnieB at 01:46 with the wording in not just the WHO releases, but in newspaper articles around the world. “May” and “might” are no longer used. We all wonder when this happened? What do they know, that we don’t? What happened to “We don’t know when or if a Pandemic will occur”. You don’t seem to see that anywhere in print anymore…….

Commonground – at 06:54

I don’t think I was specific enough in 06:46. 10 or 20 new cases reported in one week would not alarm me. You have to keep in mind the population of Indonesia. Now….if the 20 turned into 80 in a couple days…..then 130 the next day - now that would alarm me.

LMWatBullRunat 14:12

To respond to Anon_22′s question, I raised the issue simply because it seemed to be something yet to be done, and because I realized that there seemed to be a non-zero possibility that this question might actually need to be addressed.

I feel no pressing need for exterior validation of my judgement on what the triggers will be for my own “red alert”, but I do think that the Moderators would do us a further service by announcing whether or not they will be making any announcement regarding, and if they do plan to do so, explain to all us how that will be done.

I do realize that I’ve put each of you somewhat on the spot, as you do carry a great deal of credibility. Perhaps even more than you realize, and I understand your reluctance to employ that power and to run the risk of making a mistake.

I am not asking the moderators to do our thinking for us.

I AM asking the mods to let us know when things seem to warrant a heightened alert. IF that is something that the Moderators are unwilling to do for reasons I would understand, OK, I know what I will do to deal with that. It would be nice to know where we stand on this issue, however…….

INFOMASS – at 16:44

If the mods have relatives or close friends and are at a point where they feel it is time to suggest to them that they shelter in place or anticipate the imminent need for that, that would be a sign to many that the fan was turned on and soon it would become messy. I take the point of anon_22 that nobody can forecast this but at some point the evidence might point to a conclusion that is harder and harder to avoid. Maybe we will collectively “see” this before the mods. We should certainly keep the “crowd wisdom” thing going. But I also think there is wisdom in smaller groups that have been involved with this longer and knowing their thoughts would be helpful. In terms of what has changed: maybe a slowdown in some kinds of news suggests to the impatient that this is the calm before the storm. In the end, we are all guessing and trying to be both alert and sane. Not an easy combination these days!

anon_22 – at 20:13

LMWatBullRun – at 14:12

To respond to Anon_22′s question, I raised the issue simply because it seemed to be something yet to be done, and because I realized that there seemed to be a non-zero possibility that this question might actually need to be addressed.

I feel no pressing need for exterior validation of my judgement on what the triggers will be for my own “red alert”, but I do think that the Moderators would do us a further service by announcing whether or not they will be making any announcement regarding, and if they do plan to do so, explain to all us how that will be done.

I do realize that I’ve put each of you somewhat on the spot, as you do carry a great deal of credibility. Perhaps even more than you realize, and I understand your reluctance to employ that power and to run the risk of making a mistake.

I am not asking the moderators to do our thinking for us.

I AM asking the mods to let us know when things seem to warrant a heightened alert. IF that is something that the Moderators are unwilling to do for reasons I would understand, OK, I know what I will do to deal with that. It would be nice to know where we stand on this issue, however…….

I think you make a valid point. Again I can’t and won’t speak for the other mods, only for myself.

I’m in favor of openness with the public. That’s why I do what I do. If at any point I know something that I think people should know about, I will post it, subject to time and physical constraints.

Which is pretty much what I’ve been doing.

However, I will not commit ahead of time to ‘alerting’ people to anything for the very simple reason that it would place an intolerable burden on myself.

I do not make promises that I can’t keep. I cannot and will not make such a promise because there are too many unknowns if and when TSHTF. Things may move too quickly, the signals are likely to be highly ambiguous, my ability to interpret events could be compromised by stress, etc etc. I’ve been in situations where I’ve had to make life-and-death decisions before. Doing that for yourself and your family is hard enough. I have no desire to do that for anyone else.

I do my public service as best I can, right now, right here. I gotta draw the line somewhere. This is a line, just so you know.

anon_22 – at 20:18

However, if from time to time you want to ask my opinion on risk assessment, I’ll do my best to answer.

Like right now? I personally do not see anything that’s changed from after the Karo cluster. It’s one thing to think something is likely to happen, its quite another to know when. All you can do is check to see if there is significant qualitative or quantitative change in the situation. My take is that it is a slow progression which is not quantitatively big enough to raise my personal alert level, and there doesn’t seem to be any significant qualitative change either.

But I could be wrong….

LMWatBullRunat 21:13

Anon-22

I appreciate your response. Thanks!

KAro was a wake-up call, no doubt. There H5N1 showed us what it might do…..

However, I find the present ‘bubbling’ of various infections more disturbing still, as it emphasizes how endemic this virus in the Indonesian ecosystem, and what is going to happen if H5N1 can use this prolonged exposure to a numerous new host species to become SEH2H. My analogy is like the difference between seeing a rock fall onto the road in front of you, and looking upslope to see the entire slope start moving toward you.

My assessment is that the bubbling going on now will continue until H5N1 makes the needed adaptation, and then all of a sudden it won’t be bubbling any more. I expect we may have a day or two at the most if we’re lucky, but that more likely we will be sure that a pandemic has started when we see cases at the ER.

Treyfish – at 22:02

I dont think the mods will have to say anything about when it hits the fan.We will all see it.Things are slow now but we have the best in the world watching with both eyes.You would read it here with everyone else, before they would have to “change to red” or “spin the swan”.The season has just begun so to speak,and no one knows if pf51 will ever come to be.We are all watching and prepping and worrying and sweating it out.You will know when it happens and if by chance we get a little bit of advance warning,consider it luck.Being here now tells me luck is on our side.Besides,if it was anounced with big red letters,cnn would find out in about..hmm…ten minutes?

29 October 2006

DemFromCTat 17:29

We will share what we know. We always do. But as is often the case on Flu Wiki, you will be telling us more than we will be telling you. it’s not a truism, it’s the Way Things Work.

The signal has not changed. We will post something on the main page:

DemFromCTat 17:31

All kidding aside, it is likely we would all learn something together. But we really would use the main page to post something everyone needs to know.

PBQ – at 18:08

Toooooo cute! I love the picture.

Ruth – at 21:27

31 October 2006

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 23:24

http://flickr.com/photos/rioazul/sets/176451/

Here’s some great swan pics for your entertainment!

01 November 2006

Doug Baker – at 04:17

I skip the main page and start at the forum page. Can I request if we ever get to that DAY where something is posted on the main page it will also be on the Forum main page.

I hope not just a new topic that I will miss unless I read everthing.

anon_22 – at 04:29

what happened to the duck pic from Dem?

mountainlady – at 05:14

I did not know that it would be posted on the main page. I usually just go right to the forum main page.

Guess I better check the main page from now on.

Bronco Bill – at 06:08

anon_22 – at 04:29 --- Disney has that magic dust. LOL!! Meaybe they saw the pic and sprinkled some on their screens…making it disappear…

mountainlady - at 05:14 --- It’s a good idea to check the Main Wiki page now and again anyway. New stuff being added all the time…

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.HaveTheModsAgreedOnAnAlertSignal
Page last modified on November 01, 2006, at 06:08 AM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Driveway Alarms

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Driveway Alarms

31 October 2006

Goju – at 23:16

Anyone use one of these?

http://www.drivewayalarmdepot.net/dwa2.html

If a different one… which? Thanks…

DennisCat 23:25

I have a driveway alarm:

http://www.rkdm.com/drivewaysecurity/index.htm

It is a cheap one but it works. In fact I have two: one at the gate area and one farther up since some people turn around in my drive.

I did have to “stop it down” (aluminum tape to narrow the beam) but they work well. Now I am ready when the UPS truck drives up or the “door knockers”. It also lets me know when the “kids” get home (they drive up and “sit in the car” after dates and I know when to turn on the porch light)

Dreamweaver – at 23:30

This Radioshack one works well for me http://tinyurl.com/ybwyfk

01 November 2006

rph – at 00:19

The Big Dog works well for me. Drop a B>MA>tree down when we need to.

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.DrivewayAlarms
Page last modified on November 01, 2006, at 12:19 AM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Home Remedies

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Home Remedies

20 September 2006

Safety Lady – at 16:18

Tape this inside medicine cabinet

Did You Know That drinking two glasses of Gatorade can relieve headache pain almost immediately — without the unpleasant side effects caused by traditional “pain relievers.”

Did you know that Colgate toothpaste makes an excellent salve for burns.

Before you head to the drugstore for a high-priced inhaler filled with mysterious chemicals, try chewing on a couple of curiously strong Altoids peppermints. They’ll clear up your stuffed nose.

Sore throat? Just mix 1/4 cup of vinegar with 1/4 cup of honey and take 1 tablespoon six times a day. The vinegar kills the bacteria.

Vinegar to heal bruises … Soak a cotton ball in white vinegar and apply it to the bruise for 1 hour. The vinegar reduces the blueness and speeds up the healing process.

Cure urinary tract infections with Alka-Seltzer . Just dissolve two tablets in a glass of water and drink it at the onset of the symptoms. Alka-Seltzer begins eliminating urinary tract infections almost instantly — even though the product was never advertised for this use. ( Note : Alka-Seltzer Plus Cold Medicine is not the same..and contains aspirin, which can cause s tomach bleeding if you have ulcers.)

Honey remedy for skin blemishes … Cover the blemish with a! dab of honey and place a Band-Aid over it. Honey kills the bacteria, keeps the skin sterile, and speeds healing. Works overnight.

Listerine therapy for toenail fungus … Get rid of unsightly toenail fungus by soaking your toes in Listerine mouthwash. The powerful antiseptic leaves your toenails looking healthy again. Wow, fres h breath and toenails, too.

Balm for broken blisters …To disinfect a broken blister, dab on a few drops of Listerine … a powerful antiseptic.

Easy eyeglass protection … To prevent the screws in eyeglasses from loosening, apply a small drop of Crystal Clear nail polish to the threads of the screws before tightening them.

Coca-Cola cure for rust … Forget those expensive rust removers. Just saturate an abrasive sponge with Coca Cola and scrub the rust stain. The phosphoric acid in the coke is what gets the job done.

Cleaning liquid that doubles as bug killer … If menacing bees, wasps, hornets, or yellow jackets get in your home and you can’t find the insecticide, try a spray of Formula 409 . Insects drop to the ground instantly. < BR>

Smart splinter remover …just pour a drop of Elmer’s Glue-All over the splinter, let dry, and peel the dried glue off the skin. The splinter sticks to the dried glue.

Kills fleas instantly . Dawn dish washing liquid does the trick. Add a few drops to your dog’s bath and shampoo the animal thoroughly. Rinse well to avoid skin irritations. Goodbye fleas.

Rainy day cure for dog odor … Next time your dog comes in from the rain, simply wipe down the animal with Bounce or any dryer sheet, instantly making your dog smell springtime fresh.

Eliminate ear mites .. All it takes is a few drops of corn oil in your cat’s ear. Massage it in, then clean with a cotton ball. Repeat daily for 3 days. The oil soothes the cat’s skin, smothers the mites, and accelerates healing.

Quaker Oats for fast pain relief ….It’s not for breakfast anymore! Mix 2 cups of Quaker Oats and 1 cup of water in a bowl and warm in the microwave for 1 minute, cool slightly, and apply the mixture to your hands for soothing relief from arthritis pain .

Bronco Bill – at 17:02

Not guaranteed in all cases. User results may vary.

I’ve used Dawn dish detergent to wash dogs. It does work! No more bugs! OTOH, my Mom tried the Quaker Oats cure for arthritis pain and it didn’t do anything for her. However, she had advanced Rheumatoid Arthritis, so that might have had something to do with it.

I need to try the Elmer’s glue trick…

cactus – at 18:08
 Elmer`s is kept in several ERs around here. Works great to remove those cactus spines, especially those tiny hair like ones.
Gary Near Death Valley – at 18:11

cactus – at 18:08 thanks for that, have not heard of that one, and when I have been getting those little hair spines, been using tweezers. Great idea for out here

Kim – at 22:04

Copied from an email I received. I can testify that #6 definitely works…

Soothe a burn, cure a toothache, clear a stuffed nose… by Kate Dailey, Men’s Health;

1. If your throat tickles, scratch your ear.

When you were 9, playing your armpit was a cool trick. Now, as an adult, you can still appreciate a good body-based feat, but you’re more discriminating. Take that tickle in your throat; it’s not worth gagging over. Here’s a better way to scratch your itch: “When the nerves in the ear are stimulated, it creates a reflex in the throat that can cause a muscle spasm,” says Scott Schaffer, M.D., president of an ear, nose and throat specialty center in Gibbsboro, New Jersey. “This spasm relieves the tickle.”

2. Experience supersonic hearing!

If you’re stuck chatting up a mumbler at a cocktail party, lean in with your right ear. It’s better than your left at following the rapid rhythms of speech, according to researchers at the UCLA David Geffen School of Medicine. If, on the other hand, you’re trying to identify that song playing softly in the elevator, turn your left ear toward the sound. The left ear is better at picking up music tones.

3. Overcome your most primal urge!

Need to pee? No bathroom nearby? Fantasize about Jessica Simpson. Thinking about sex preoccupies your brain, so you won’t feel as much discomfort, says Larry Lipshultz, M.D., chief of male reproductive medicine at the Baylor College of Medicine. For best results, try Simpson’s “These Boots Are Made for Walking” video.

4. Feel no pain!

German researchers have discovered that coughing during an injection can lessen the pain of the needle stick. According to Taras Usichenko, author of a study on the phenomenon, the trick causes a sudden, temporary rise in pressure in the chest and spinal canal, inhibiting the pain-conducting structures of the spinal cord.

5. Clear your stuffed nose!

Forget Sudafed. An easier, quicker, and cheaper way to relieve sinus pressure is by alternately thrusting your tongue against the roof of your mouth, then pressing between your eyebrows with one finger. This causes the vomer bone, which runs through the nasal passages to the mouth, to rock back and forth, says Lisa DeStefano, D.O., an assistant professor at the Michigan State University college of osteopathic medicine. The motion loosens congestion; after 20 seconds, you’ll feel your sinuses start to drain.

6. Fight fire without water!

Worried those wings will repeat on you tonight? “Sleep on your left side,” says Anthony A. Star-poli, M.D., a New York City gastroenterologist and assistant professor of medicine at New York Medical College. Studies have shown that patients who sleep on their left sides are less likely to suffer from acid reflux. The esophagus and stomach connect at an angle. When you sleep on your right, the stomach is higher than the esophagus, allowing food and stomach acid to slide up your throat. When you’re on your left, the stomach is lower than the esophagus, so gravity’s in your favor.

7. Cure your toothache without opening your mouth!

Just rub ice on the back of your hand, on the V-shaped webbed area between your thumb and index finger. A Canadian study found that this technique reduces toothache pain by as much as 50 percent compared with using no ice. The nerve pathways at the base of that V stimulate an area of the brain that blocks pain signals from the face and hands.

8. Make burns disappear!

When you accidentally singe your finger on the stove, clean the skin and apply light pressure with the finger pads of your unmarred hand. Ice will relieve your pain more quickly, Dr. DeStefano says, but since the natural method brings the burned skin back to a normal temperature, the skin is less likely to blister.

9. Stop the world from spinning!

One too many drinks left you dizzy? Put your hand on something stable. The part of your ear responsible for balance—the cupula—floats in a fluid of the same density as blood. “As alcohol dilutes blood in the cupula, the cupula becomes less dense and rises,” says Dr. Schaffer. This confuses your brain. The tactile input from a stable object gives the brain a second opinion, and you feel more in balance. Because the nerves in the hand are so sensitive, this works better than the conventional foot-on-the-floor wisdom.

10. Unstitch your side!

If you’re like most people, when you run, you exhale as your right foot hits the ground. This puts downward pressure on your liver (which lives on your right side), which then tugs at the diaphragm and creates a side stitch, according to The Doctors Book of Home Remedies for Men. The fix: Exhale as your left foot strikes the ground.

11. Stanch blood with a single finger!

Pinching your nose and leaning back is a great way to stop a nosebleed—if you don’t mind choking on your own O positive. A more civil approach: Put some cotton on your upper gums—just behind that small dent below your nose—and press against it, hard. “Most bleeds come from the front of the septum, the cartilage wall that divides the nose,” says Peter Desmarais, M.D., an ear, nose, and throat specialist at Entabeni Hospital, in Durban, South Africa. “Pressing here helps stop them.”

12. Make your heart stand still!

Trying to quell first-date jitters? Blow on your thumb. The vagus nerve, which governs heart rate, can be controlled through breathing, says Ben Abo, an emergency medical-services specialist at the University of Pittsburgh. It’ll get your heart rate back to normal.

13. Thaw your brain!

Too much Chipwich too fast will freeze the brains of lesser men. As for you, press your tongue flat against the roof of your mouth, covering as much as you can. “Since the nerves in the roof of your mouth get extremely cold, your body thinks your brain is freezing, too,” says Abo. “In compensating, it overheats, causing an ice-cream headache.” The more pressure you apply to the roof of your mouth, the faster your headache will subside.

14. Prevent near-sightedness!

Poor distance vision is rarely caused by genetics, says Anne Barber, O.D., an optometrist in Tacoma, Washington. “It’s usually caused by near-point stress.” In other words, staring at your computer screen for too long. So flex your way to 20/20 vision. Every few hours during the day, close your eyes, tense your body, take a deep breath, and, after a few seconds, release your breath and muscles at the same time. Tightening and releasing muscles such as the biceps and glutes can trick involuntary muscles—like the eyes—into relaxing as well.

15. Wake the dead!

If your hand falls asleep while you’re driving or sitting in an odd position, rock your head from side to side. It’ll painlessly banish your pins and needles in less than a minute, says Dr. DeStefano. A tingly hand or arm is often the result of compression in the bundle of nerves in your neck; loosening your neck muscles releases the pressure. Compressed nerves lower in the body govern the feet, so don’t let your sleeping dogs lie. Stand up and walk around.

16. Impress your friends!

Next time you’re at a party, try this trick: Have a person hold one arm straight out to the side, palm down, and instruct him to maintain this position. Then place two fingers on his wrist and push down. He’ll resist. Now have him put one foot on a surface that’s a half inch higher (a few magazines) and repeat. This time his arm will cave like the French. By misaligning his hips, you’ve offset his spine, says Rachel Cosgrove, C.S.C.S., co-owner of Results Fitness, in Santa Clarita, California. Your brain senses that the spine is vulnerable, so it shuts down the body’s ability to resist.

17. Breathe underwater!

If you’re dying to retrieve that quarter from the bottom of the pool, take several short breaths first—essentially, hyperventilate. When you’re underwater, it’s not a lack of oxygen that makes you desperate for a breath; it’s the buildup of carbon dioxide, which makes your blood acidic, which signals your brain that somethin’ ain’t right. “When you hyperventilate, the influx of oxygen lowers blood acidity,” says Jonathan Armbruster, Ph.D., an associate professor of biology at Auburn University. “This tricks your brain into thinking it has more oxygen.” It’ll buy you up to 10 seconds.

18. Read minds!

Your own! “If you’re giving a speech the next day, review it before falling asleep,” says Candi Heimgartner, an instructor of biological sciences at the University of Idaho. Since most memory consolidation happens during sleep, anything you read right before bed is more likely to be encoded as long-term memory.

And here’s another one…

Heart Attack Procedure: When alone

Everyone should also know that not every heart attack symptom is going to be the left arm hurting.

Be aware of intense pain in the jaw line. You may never have the first chest pain during the course of a heart attack.

Nausea and intense sweating are also common symptoms. 60% of people who have a heart attack while they are asleep do not wake up.

Let’s be careful and be aware. The more we know……….

A cardiologist says if everyone who gets this mail sends it to 10 people, you can be sure that we’ll save at least one life. Read this… It could save your life!!

Let’s say it’s 6.15pm and you’re driving home (alone of course), after an unusually hard day on the job. You’re tired, upset and frustrated. Suddenly you start experiencing severe pain in your chest that starts to radiate out into your arm and up into your jaw. You are only about five miles from the hospital nearest your home.

Unfortunately you don’t know if you’ll be able to make it that far. You have been trained in CPR, but the guy that taught the course did not tell you how to perform it on yourself.

HOW TO SURVIVE A HEART ATTACK WHEN ALONE

Since many people are alone when they suffer a heart attack, without help, the person whose heart is beating improperly and who begins to feel faint, has only about 10 seconds left before losing consciousness. However, these victims can help themselves by coughing repeatedly and very vigorously. A deep breath should be taken before each cough, and the cough must be deep and prolonged, as when producing sputum from deep inside the chest.

A breath and a cough must be repeated about every two seconds without let-up until help arrives, or until the heart is felt to be beating normally again. Deep breaths get oxygen into the lungs and coughing movements squeeze the heart and keep the blood circulating.

The squeezing pressure on the heart also helps it regain normal rhythm. In this way, heart attack victims can get to a hospital. Tell as many other people as possible about this. It could save their lives!!

21 September 2006

Gary Near Death Valley – at 00:42

Geeeeeeeeeee I wish people would check this out, go to www.snopes.com and find out this heart attack couph thing is FALSE. Read it and be aware.

Kathy in FL – at 10:19

After a prolonged or serious illness, many people experience anaemia. Below is some “home remedies” for treating anaemia that I’ve found while doing home health care research. Use at your own descretion.

Kathy in FL – at 11:00

Another interesting home treatment found. These are for asthma. As always, use at your own descretion.

Kathy in FL – at 11:23

Some people are prone to rashes … stress, heat, etc … and I found some possible treatments to implement. Use at your own descretion.

Kathy in FL – at 11:41

In the event of an H5N1 pandemic, I thought some home remedies for bronchitis would be in order. Use at your own descretion.

22 September 2006

NS1 – at 05:52

Kathy-

Do you speak Hindi?

Kathy in FL – at 09:58

NS1 – at 05:52

No, I don’t … I’m just good at researching. <grin> Spent 10 years doing it at the university level, have a love of genealogy and in general am a book and resource-a-holic. LOL!

I’m just hoping by sharing what I am doing for myself I am helping others as well.

no name – at 10:20

Miss Kathy,

Thanks for all you do…everything. The receipes, remedies, huge family…you must be the Energizer Bunny! Just reading about your life makes me tired.

Kathy in FL – at 10:53

no name – at 10:20

Thank you. I think in the long run it will be the little things that help most in difficult times … and the little things we remember best … like a short note of kind words. <grin>

Kathy in FL – at 10:59

Vomiting Relief (likely to be a component of a pandemic flu)

As always, use at your own descretion.

Relief measures: Some of the effective home remedies for vomiting are as follows. Have a cup of ginger tea, Eat a mixture of honey and powder of 2 roasted cardamoms, Have a glass of chilled lime juice, Have a mixture of 1 tsp mint juice, 1 tsp lime juice, 1/2 tsp ginger juice and 1 tsp honey. Slowly sip a glass of honey water, Have one tsp onion juice in regular interval, Slowly sip a glass of chilled cola, Relax for some time.

For the first twelve hours after vomiting do not take any solid food. Limit yourself only to liquids like apple juice, carbonated juices, water and so on. Avoid citrus juices and dairy products for the first 24 hours.

Once vomiting stops, do not rush to normal diet immediately. Returning to a normal diet and eating schedule is much preferable than trying to force a complete recovery immediately.

Kathy in FL – at 11:05

Toothache Home Remedies and Prevention

Use at your own descretion. Some of them, like the garlic and onion suggestion are pretty powerful. I can tell you from experience that raw onion can sting.

Remedies for Tooth ache using Garlic: Among the most effective home remedies for toothache is garlic. A clove of garlic with a little rock salt should be placed on the affected tooth. It will relieve the pain and, sometimes, may even cure it. A clove should also be chewed daily in the morning.

Toothache relief using Onion: Latest research has confirmed the bactericidal properties of onion. If a person consumes one raw onion every day by thorough mastication, he will be protected from host of tooth disorders. Chewing raw onion for three minutes is sufficient to kill all the germs in the mouth. Toothache is often allayed by placing a small piece of onion on the bad tooth or gum.

Toothache cure using Wheat Grass: The juice of wheat grass acts as a mouthwash for tooth decay and is supposed to help cure toothaches. Wheat grass can be chewed with beneficial results. It draws out toxins from the gums and thus checks bacterial growth.

Toothache home remedy using Clove: Another home remedy for toothache is in the use of clove, which reduces pain. It also helps decrease infection due to its antiseptic properties. Clove oil, applied to a cavity in a decayed tooth, also relieves toothache. Careful when using this with children, although I’m told it is in common usage in Indonesia, as oil of cloves is very strong.

Remedies for Toothache using Pepper: A pinch of pepper powder mixed with clove oil can be put on the cavities to alleviate the toothache. The clove oil acts as a “deadener.”

Kathy in FL – at 11:07

For those of us who may be doing more outside work than we are used to …

As always, use at your own descretion and beware of allergic reactions.

Remedies for Sunburn: Apply aloe vera or vinegar on the affected skin; it will stop inflammation and pain. Avoid products made from benzocaine, lidocaine and petroleum jelly. Rub mustard oil on the affected skin and allow to it dry, this will take out the heat from the skin. Cut fresh cucumber slices and rub them on the affected area. Before taking bath, add some baking powder to the bath water, this will help to soothe the burnt skin. Apply lavender oil or peppermint oil on the burnt skin. Apply apple cider vinegar to the burnt skin using cotton ball. Take herbal bath; put few drops of chamomile and lavender essential oils in bath water. Take epsom salt or ice compress. Grate some potatoes and apply them on the burnt skin. Starch from the potatoes will soothe the burn.

Kathy in FL – at 11:11

Some traditional, sore throat remedies. Use at your own descretion and only with conscious patients that aren’t suffering from nausea and vomiting … forcing them to drink something that will cause their stomach to rebel is not going to be helpful.

Kathy in FL – at 11:15

Scurvy may become a problem if inadequate nutritional balance in our preps become an issue … such as only storing beans and rice and having to subsist on it for a long period of time.

Scurvy is caused by lack of vitamin C or ascorbic acid. Inadequate intake of fresh fruit and vegetables can lead to this condition. Reportedly stress can also lead to scurvy.

Scurvy Relief:

Kathy in FL – at 11:25

Some home remedies for nausea. Use at your own descretion. Remember to take into consideration how alert your patient is and how old they are. Some of the home remedies are small-kid-friendly … such as the herbal candy option.

You can treat it by having two capsules of gingerroot. It will give you a quick relief and depending how severe is your nausea

You can use fresh piece of ginger in your tea to get relief from this problem

You can have a mild tea or have gingerale which help to soothe your stomach. You can also have slippery elm, red raspberry as well as herbal candies

Peppermint or chamomile tea is capable of getting rid of the nauseating feeling.

After boiling 1/2 cup of rice in 1 cup of water for 10–20 minutes, consume the rice water after draining the rice from it

If the patient can still eat, despite the nausea, allow them to do so unless they are actually vomitting. However, it is better to avoid a lot of spices, oils, and heavy flavorings … maintain a bland diet.

Kathy in FL – at 11:31

Low blood-sugar may be the result of an extended illness where a balanced diet has been difficult to maintain. Use the following suggestions at you own descretion.

When the blood sugar level falls much below normal, symptoms such as nervousness, irritability, fatigue, depression, disturbed vision, and headaches appear. Other symptoms are sweating, trembling, numbness, absent-mindedness, dizziness, palpitations of the heart, and some sexual disturbances. Most hypoglycaemia patients feel hungry and eat frequently to get over the feeling of weakness and emotional irritability. They feel tense if they have to go without food for several hours.

Certain vitamins have been found effective in the treatment of low blood sugar. These are vitamins C, E, and B complex. Foods rich in these vitamins are therefore valuable in low blood sugar. Vitamins C and B increase tolerance of sugar and carbohydrates, and help normalise sugar metabolism, Pantothenic acid and vitamin B6 help to build up adrenals which are generally exhausted in persons with low blood sugar. Vitamin E improves glycogen storage in the muscles and tissues. The patient should take vitamin C in large doses from 2,000 to 5,000 mg B6 - 50 mg, and vitamin E - upto 1600 IU daily

Molasses is reportedly better for helping a patient get over an episode of low blood-sugar than refined white sugar is.

Until blood sugar levels have been normalized avoid refined and processed foods if possible, and reduce salt intake.

anonymous – at 11:32

Vit C for scurvy. Try fresh bean sprouts. In a study of soybean sprouts, for 100 grams of seed, the early shoots had about 100 mg of Vit C. But letting the sprouts grow for a few more days, and the vit C goes up to about 700 mg.

Also, the seeds or beans can be stored for quite a while.

Kathy in FL – at 11:36

An extended illness may also result in low blood pressure.

Low blood pressure or hypotension refers to the fall in blood pressure below normal. It is a condition in which the action of the heart, in forcing the blood through the arteries, is weak. This is a direct outcome of a weakened and devitalised system. The patient with chronic low blood pressure may complain of lethargy, weakness, fatigue, and dizziness. The patient may faint, especially if arterial pressure is lowered further when he assumes an erect position.

Suggested remedy one: The juice of raw beetroot is one of the most effective home remedies for low blood pressure. The patient should drink a cup of this juice twice daily for treating this condition Considerable improvement will be noticeable within a week

Suggested remedy two: Protein, vitamin C, and all vitamins of the B group have been found beneficial in the prevention and treatment of low blood pressure. Of these, pantothenic acid is of particular importance. Liberal use of this vitamin alone often helps in raising the blood pressure. A diet which contains adequate quantities of complete proteins, B vitamin and, particularly, the nutrients that stimulate adrenal production, quickly normalizes low blood pressure.

Patients suffering from low blood pressure should aAvoid excessive work, anxiety as it unduly taxes a system already under stress.

Kathy in FL – at 12:03

If I’m understanding what I’m reading, lethargy may be part of the long recovery process if H5N1 is the next pandemic.

Some of the symptoms of lethargy are changes in bowel and appetite patterns, difficulty in performing daily routine, difficulty in concentrating, pain at various places in the body, difficulty in falling asleep, fatigue.

It will be important to include a well-balanced diet as part of the recovery process. Nutrition plays a big role in combating lethargy. Lethargy can also be caused by depression, blood pressure problems, and leftover symptoms from a long illness.

In addition to a well-balanced diet, it may prove helpful to include a daily multi-vitamin as part of the recovery protocols.

I’ve also seen drinking a tea made out of basil leaves regularly and/or drinking a glass of grapefruit and lemon juice, both mixed in equal quantities, mentioned as being helpful in combating lethargy.

Kathy in FL – at 12:08

Insomnia Relief

The term insomnia literally denotes a complete lack of sleep. It is, however, used to indicate a relative inability to sleep that consists of difficulty in falling asleep, difficulty in remaining asleep, early final awakening, or combinations of these complaints. The most common cause of sleeplessness is mental tension brought about by anxiety, worries, overwork, and overexcitement. Suppressed feelings of resentment, anger, and bitterness may also cause insomnia. Constipation, dyspepsia, overeating at night, excessive intake of tea or coffee, smoking, and going to bed hungry are among the other causes. Often, worrying about falling asleep is enough to keep one awake.

Also, avoid eating immediately prior to going to bed. However, a light snack … such as popcorn … at least an hour before retiring may actually help.

Kathy in FL – at 12:40

Carrot soup is reportedly an effective home remedy for diarrhea. It supplies water to combat dehydration; replenishes sodium, potassium, phosphorus, calcium, sulphur, and magnesium; supplies pectin; and coats the intestine to allay inflammation. It also checks the growth of harmful intestinal bacteria and prevents vomiting. Half a kilogram of carrots may be cooked in 150 ml of water until they become soft. The pulp should be strained and enough boiled water added to it to make a litre. Three-quarters of a tablespoon of salt may be added. This soup should be given in small amounts to the patient every half an hour.

Kathy in FL – at 12:50

More home remedies for diarrrhea:

Rice is useful in treating diarrhoea in children. A teaspoon of powder of charred parboiled rice, mixed with a glass of buttermilk, should be given in does of thirty grams every half an hour. This will bring excellent results.

Cooked or baked apples are good for diarrhoea. The cooking process softens the cellulose. Much of its value as a regulating material is thus lost and it is effective in looseness of the bowels. A glass of fresh tomato juice, mixed with a pinch of salt and pepper, taken in the morning, also proves beneficial. Other starchy liquids such as arrowroot water, barley water, and coconut water are also useful in the treatment of diarrhoea. They not only replace the fluid lost but also bind the stools. Other home remedies include bananas and garlic. Bananas contain pectin and encourage the growth of beneficial bacteria. Garlic is a powerful, effective, and harmless germ killer

Northstar – at 13:31

A simple home remedy for ear infections I use is a drop or two of warm hydrogen peroxide down the ear canal. This can knock a small infection out entirely. (Works well for swimmer’s ear, too.)

Rose hips — the pod left after the petals fall — contain a lot of vitamin C. It makes a nice tea. The petals make a lovely — if somewhat odd to western palates — jelly.

Don’t forget, tasty vitamin C lozenges are also available. My kids love them.

Don’t forget fresh mint can grow weedily almost anywhere and is a great tonic tea. If one doesn’t have a lot of greens this can really help. Catnip tea, too, is tasty and relaxing though kids don’t like it quite so much as mint. (Mint is easily rooted from a grocery store sprig, btw.)

My favorite anti-nausea remedy when I was pregnant and had to do a lot of car travelling: home made ginger candy. Dice a fresh root of ginger (1/4″ dice) and boil 10–15 minutes in a syrup of sugar and water. Remove dice to a flat pan and dry in a slow oven until very hard. Crunch one candy as needed. (Reserve syrup and use in teas. Wonderful!) Note: these candies are very powerfully flavored but they grow on you quickly — my kids were begging for them before too long.

Lorelle – at 22:43

Just another reminder to be careful with essential oils. Some of them can burn the skin if not diluted enough.

23 September 2006

Kathy in FL – at 16:45

I’m continuing to look for home remedies, especially in the face of rising medical costs and possible lack of access to medical assistance during and after a pandemic. Some “simple” ailments may not rate a trip to the doctor’s as an example. Nice to have a little knowledge set aside.

FrenchieGirlat 18:11

Kathy in Fl, thanks.

Notes/Remarks/Comments: I am only commenting on those that I have tried and tested, with myself or family and friends – This list is not exhaustive, I have just written it as it came to mind while reading the very valuable information by Kathy in Fl. I’ve got plenty more herbs and oils in my cupboards and fridge. Will deal with the others some other time:


Usual disclaimer: Please do not construe the above as medical advice. Please consult your physician before using any of the above.

FrenchieGirlat 18:14

Correction:

Corinth raisins, dried : effective for hypoglycemia (NOT hypotension) (but not as a regular treatment, just for quick relief, to be carried in pockets, handbag or car), useful and discreet in your pocket to munch during school exams, so that your blood sugar does not sink just when you need all of your brain

FrenchieGirlat 18:20

Safety Lady – at 16:18 — Coca-Cola cure for rust … Forget those expensive rust removers. Just saturate an abrasive sponge with Coca Cola and scrub the rust stain. The phosphoric acid in the coke is what gets the job done

Also, use car brake fluid to remove rust

DonJuansOtherDaughterat 18:40

There is a very interesting artical from Sept. 15 on the Newsnow site, Epidemic Influenza and Vitamin D. Vitamin D could help us avoid catching the flu and lessen the effects if we do happen to get it.

Bronco Bill – at 18:43

FrenchieGirl – at 18:20 --- Also, use car brake fluid to remove rust

Just keep it off of acrylic auto paint and plastic auto parts. In the US, DOT3 brake fluid will oxidize the paint and pit the plastic.

anon_22 – at 20:27

BB,

I thought you wre on the road?

Kathy in FL – at 23:03

Something that I had forgotten and FrenchieGirl reminded me with her nicotine on the roses remedy …

When I was little my grandparents owned a tobacco farm. For those of you who don’t know the process of tobacco … the leaves grown on a huge stalk. You harvest the leaves by impaling them one at a time on “tobacco sticks” that are then hung high in barns to dry.

In these barns wasps frequently built huge nests. When they would light the smoky fires to dry the tobacco it would disturb the wasps nests and there would be all the huge stinging things out to get you.

When anyone would get stung they would just take some dried tobacco, scrumble it up, spit on it to make a police and then place it on the sting. It had an analgesic effect I guess.

Kathy in FL – at 23:06

That should be “poltice” not “make a police” … gee, I blamed the two year old in my lap earlier today, but obviously the problem of my typing goes deeper than I thought. <grin>

24 September 2006

jplanner – at 05:33

don’t know my uch about it but I do know tobacco INGESTION is highly toxic, lethal. Cases of people killing selves in prison by injestion of tobacco. I remember in WHERE THERE IS NO DOCTOR they very cautiosly injest tobacco to cure something but warn of it’s lethality beyond a certain low amount. Not sure about putting it on any opening in skin. Tho admit insect sting hole in skin is small.

In organic chem in college we extracted substances from One tobacco leaf, including nicotene. Apparently it contains alot of chemicals…maybe thats why people started smoking it (ie pleasant side effects of them). I can imagine it numbing the skin.

EnoughAlreadyat 12:24

Kathy in FL – at 11:15

Vitamin C is the most easily destroyed vitamin there is. It is destroyed by oxygen, heat (above 70 degrees) and it leaks out into the cooking water because it is a water soluble vitamin. Loss increases with air, temperature, water and time. So the less of each, the better. Also, cast iron pans destroy vitamin C. Don’t use them in cooking vitamin C rich vegetables like tomatoes for spaghetti sauce. Vitamin C can be completely lost if foods are frozen for longer than two months. Frozen, reconstituted orange juice has 78% and canned orange juice has 69% of the vitamin C found in fresh squeezed orange juice. However, the highest Recommended Dietary Allowances for vitamin C is 60 milligrams and all three forms, fresh, frozen and canned provide more than the RDA of vitamin C in 2/3 cup of orange juice.

So, when you talk about potatoes being a good source of vitamin C, remember if cooked… save any liquid if there is any and use it if possible.

NS1 – at 17:22

Potato Water is excellent for a broth base. Fresh it in small bags.

We regularly feed most of our potato water to our herbs. In the summer, our potato enriched basil stock will sometimes grow 2 inches in day. You can almost watch it move if you’re patient. All organic, all natural, no synthetics.

Pugdog45102 – at 21:14

Here is an excellent book. It can be downloaded free. “Where there are no Doctors”

http://www.hesperian.org/mm5/merchant.mvc?Screen=PROD&Store_Code=HB&Product_Code=B010R&Category_Code=ENG

27 September 2006

Patc – at 13:09

When I first started nursing we were still boiling needles and syringes!!!! I am not going to tell you how old I am!!!! At that time the treatment for bedsores was to clean with peroxide and then pack with a mixture of sugar and water and then apply a dressing over that. Three times a day.It worked better than anything they have today. Honey also works well. If you have pain in your side and do not know if it is kidney stones or gall stones take a nitroglycerin tablet if it is the gallbladder the pain will immediately stop. An old wives tale for fever is to slice an onion and put it on the soles of the feet and put socks on to keep them in place. I have never had to try it but have had many old people sware it worked. My husbabd is diabetic and gets “needles and pins” feelings in his toes and feet so bad I cannot even touch them. By accident we learned that massaging triple antibiotic ointment WITH pain reliever stops the pain and he can sleep through the night. A blow dryer will also stop ear pain. A good massage of the hands and feet wil put most people to sleep, without sleeping pills or pain relievers.

21 October 2006

Kathy in FL – at 16:58

Vinegar Rub for Rheumatism

Soak a foldes cloth in this preparation, wring out, and place on swollen joint.

Please check for skin sensitivity to wintergreen first.

Kathy in FL – at 17:00

Ginger Gargle

Use for sore throat, post nasal drip, and swollen tonsils.

Pour boiling water over ginger. Add lemon and honey. Use as you would any gargle. Don’t swallow … spit.

28 October 2006

Reader & Daughter-In-Law – at 06:46

Hot Toddie

1 cup hot green tea

1 shot glass full of whiskey

1 teaspoon honey

1 teaspoon lemon juice or more to taste

Make your favorite green tea, then add the honey and lemon. Pour whiskey into mug, then add tea mixture.

My grandmother also added cream to the tea, she liked it that way.

Anti-viral Tomato Soup

1 can Condensed Tomato Soup

4–5 Fresh or Dried Shitake Mushrooms, sliced or chopped

1 Clove Garlic, chopped

1/2 Large Onion, chopped

1 12 oz. can Vegetable Juice

Cayenne Pepper to taste

Put vegetable juice in pan and add mushrooms, garlic and onions. Cook on low heat until onion and garlic are soft but not wimpy. Add tomato soup (add water if you want to, but we like it thick) and stir until hot. Sprinkle with cayenne pepper. I also like to sprinkle parmesan cheese on it. This makes 2–3 good sized servings.

Natural anti-virals:

cayenne pepper

garlic

onion

shitake mushrooms

green tea

lemon balm

licorice

ginger root

echinacea

elderberry

zinc

selenium

Garlic has been used to ward off flu for centuries. Anti-vampire garlic stringed necklaces most likely derived from the garlands strung around the door of historic peoples during epidemics. They would prick or slice the garlic to let the juices flow around the entrance area. Fresh garlic kills most viruses on contact. If you eat a fresh garlic clove (yuck!) before coming in contact with someone who might breathe on you and thus give you a virus, you add protection your whole mouth and nose area from breathing in viruses. This might also work because of the strong smell and people will have a tendency to turn away from you. :>)

Don’t forget that chocolate is a mood elevator. When someone is sick, a nice warm cup of hot chocolate will improve their spirit.

For sleeplessness, get a bottle of elderberry wine and soak cranberries (pitted), blueberries, strawberries, raspberries and blackberries. Eat the berries. Share the wine. Shut your eyes.

Did you know that sometimes you wake up during the night due to hunger? That’s why protein is good before bedtime, it stays with you longer than carbs. If you have a child who wakes up in the middle of the night hungry, try giving them a chunk of cheese before they go to bed.

P.S. I know a lot of you guys here are older and you’re prepping for your kids and grandkids. Reader has been telling me about this for over a year now. I have to admit, I thought she was a little off. But lately, I’ve started realizing she will probably save our lives. I feel so grateful, and i wanted to tell you that your children will be too. My age group doesn’t think about dying much. It’s harder for us to get a grip on it all. Be prepared for tears when your kids do realize what you have done for them. We have voted into the SIP family a friend of mine, a single mom with a little boy. She’s poor but she knows all about bird flu because of me. When we told her, I never saw someone so happy and crying at the same time!

31 October 2006

crfullmoon – at 23:21

Thank you Reader’s Daughter-In-Law ! Good to hear!

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Would HSV Anti-virals Possibly Be Effective for the Flu

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Forum: Would HSV Anti-virals Possibly Be Effective for the Flu

27 October 2006

fredness – at 11:31

As I read about herbs that have been shown to have anti-viral properties I notice several interfere with replication of other lipid coated viruses. It just made me wonder if this were true with prescription medications. It might be better than nothing.

Tom DVM – at 11:44

fredness. I agree completely. If the status quo continues…for 99.9 % of the population, there will be no pharmaceuticals at all.

Under these conditions, a re-evaluation of naturopathic remedies would be beneficial. Unfortunately, if the pandemic starts in the fall or winter, there will be few plants avaliable from which to extract naturopathic medications.

I would appreciate a list of readily avaliable native North American plants that might help.

Reconscout – at 12:08

Tom,I read a post of yours on a thread about vetinary medications in which you remarked that you had worked out treatment procedures for animals with similar infections.You said that some of these might apply to humans.Do you recall which thread these procedures were discussed on as I would like to read it. Thank you.

Tom DVM – at 12:19

Reconscout. I don’t remember which thread it was. If you check the news threads for the past couple of days, I think JV mentioned that it was on a ‘pet mediations’ thread.

If I remember, the discussion may have been held on seperate threads…but here is an overview.

I have treated viral pneumonias and the cytokine storm in cattle for many years. It was very depressing at the start because a number of animals would die and a number of animals would end up with serious permanent lung damage. The comment about crepitous gas under the skin in humans with H1N1 in 1918, was a common occurrence with these animals.

I tried many things to counter these effects. I did come up with a treatment protocol that cut mortality in more than half and pretty much removed the lung damage after the fact.

The basis of the treatment was two fold. 1) the use of prednisolone plus antifever drugs in combination to limit the cytokine storm and as importantly limit the intial lung destruction from the virus…

…and 2) the use of spectinomycin which was an off-label use of a drug liscensed for use with Turkeys in North America and liscensed for cattle in France…

…The results indicated to me that this particular antibiotic had a direct effect on viruses which doesn’t make sense for a compound that should only have an effect on bacteria…either way it worked…

Note: I am treating all of you as my colleagues. I have no way to know what effect this antibiotic could have on humans…for all I know it could be directly toxic (there are antibiotics that work perfectly in animals and are poisions to humans and visa versa)…

…I am providing this for interest and discussion only. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO ACCESS THE DRUG FOR HUMAN USAGE UNLESS AS A RESULT OF THE DIRECT INTERVENTION OF A PHYSICIAN.

Thanks for the question.

beehiver – at 23:43

Being curious about the spectinomycin…found that it has been used in humans mainly to treat gonorrhea. But, it is not absorbed well when ingested, this drug needs to be injected. This page said, “Toxicokinetic studies suggested poor absorption after oral dosing in rats, dogs, pigs and cattle, with most of the orally administered dose found in the faeces. Absorption was also poor in humans following oral administration.”

The Wikipedia entry for spectinomycin describes it’s mode of action as: “It binds to the 30S ribosomal subunit in invading bacteria and interrupts protein synthesis.” Another reference got more detailed about it, but I could not immediately get some clue whether the protein synthesis inhibition might apply to other situations.

Anyway, because the drug needs to be injected, it probably wouldn’t be a good candidate for home care, even if it did have some mode of anti-viral activity.

beehiver – at 23:54

However! Fredness your first post at 11:31 jarred my memory about something. There is a breakdown product of coconut oil (monolaurin) which has activity against bacteria and viruses with (respectively) lipid membrane or viral envelope. It’s important to know the coconut oil must go through the human digestive process to produce the active monolaurin component.

A bit from this summary gives more info…I have not had time to chase down specific studies or journal references, but there are references given on the webpage. Author: Mary Enig, PhD.

“The lauric acid in coconut oil is used by the body to make the same disease-fighting fatty acid derivative monolaurin that babies make from the lauric acid they get from their mothers= milk. The monoglyceride monolaurin is the substance that keeps infants from getting viral or bacterial or protozoal infections. Until just recently, this important benefit has been largely overlooked by the medical and nutrition community.

Recognition of the antimicrobial activity of the monoglyceride of lauric acid (monolaurin) has been reported since 1966. The seminal work can be credited to Jon Kabara. This early research was directed at the virucidal effects because of possible problems related to food preservation. Some of the early work by Hierholzer and Kabara (1982) that showed virucidal effects of monolaurin on enveloped RNA and DNA viruses was done in conjunction with the Center for Disease Control of the US Public Health Service with selected prototypes or recognized representative strains of enveloped human viruses. The envelope of these viruses is a lipid membrane.

Kabara (1978) and others have reported that certain fatty acids (e.g., medium-chain saturates) and their derivatives (e.g., monoglycerides) can have adverse effects on various microorganisms: those microorganisms that are inactivated include bacteria, yeast, fungi, and enveloped viruses.

The medium-chain saturated fatty acids and their derivatives act by disrupting the lipid membranes of the organisms (Isaacs and Thormar 1991) (Isaacs et al 1992). In particular, enveloped viruses are inactivated in both human and bovine milk by added fatty acids (FAs) and monoglycerides (MGs) (Isaacs et al 1991) as well as by endogenous FAs and MGs (Isaacs et al 1986, 1990, 1991, 1992; Thormar et al 1987).

All three monoesters of lauric acid are shown to be active antimicrobials, i.e., alpha-, alpha’-, and beta-MG. Additionally, it is reported that the antimicrobial effects of the FAs and MGs are additive and total concentration is critical for inactivating viruses (Isaacs and Thormar 1990).

The properties that determine the anti-infective action of lipids are related to their structure; e.g., monoglycerides, free fatty acids. The monoglycerides are active, diglycerides and triglycerides are inactive. Of the saturated fatty acids, lauric acid has greater antiviral activity than either caprylic acid (C-10) or myristic acid (C-14).

The action attributed to monolaurin is that of solubilizing the lipids and phospholipids in the envelope of the virus causing the disintegration of the virus envelope. In effect, it is reported that the fatty acids and monoglycerides produce their killing/inactivating effect by lysing the (lipid bilayer) plasma membrane. However, there is evidence from recent studies that one antimicrobial effect is related to its interference with signal transduction (Projan et al 1994).”

28 October 2006

fredness – at 02:20

Some of the supplements I plan to stock for influenza treatment include andrographis, black elderberry, chamomile german (aromatherapy for anti-inflammatory), cranberry, eucalyptus globulus and radiata (aromatherapy), forsythia, green tea, lonicera, naouli (melaleuca quinquenervia, aromatherapy ), pomogranate, propolis, ravensara (aromatherapy) reservatrol (knotweed tincture), tea tree (aromatherapy). I have found documentation supporting their use in more than one place. The references I will cite for this post relate to those which also show efficacy against herpes, as listed on PubMed.

Antiviral properties of ent-labdene diterpenes of Andrographis paniculata nees, inhibitors of herpes simplex virus type 1. Phytother Res. 2005 Dec;19(12):1069–70. Andrographolide, neoandrographolide and 14-deoxy-11,12-didehydroandrographolide, ent-labdene diterpenes isolated from Andrographis paniculata showed viricidal activity against herpes simplex virus 1 (HSV-1). None of these compounds exhibited significant cytotoxicity at viricidal concentrations. Copyright 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID: 16372376

Antiviral activity of Australian tea tree oil and eucalyptus oil against herpes simplex virus in cell culture. Pharmazie. 2001 Apr;56(4):343–7. The antiviral effect of Australian tea tree oil (TTO) and eucalyptus oil (EUO) against herpes simplex virus was examined…In order to determine the mode of antiviral action of both essential oils, either cells were pretreated before viral infection or viruses were incubated with TTO or EUO before infection, during adsorption or after penetration into the host cells. Plaque formation was clearly reduced, when herpes simplex virus was pretreated with the essential oils prior to adsorption. These results indicate that TTO and EUO affect the virus before or during adsorption, but not after penetration into the host cell. Thus TTO and EUO are capable to exert a direct antiviral effect on HSV. Although the active antiherpes components of Australian tea tree and eucalyptus oil are not yet known, their possible application as antiviral agents in recurrent herpes infection is promising. PMID: 16372376

Antiviral properties of prodelphinidin B-2 3′-O-gallate from green tea leaf. Antivir Chem Chemother. 2002 Jul;13(4):223–9. Prodelphinidin B-2 3-O-gallate, a proanthocyanidin gallate isolated from green tea leaf, was investigated for its anti-herpes simplex virus type 2 properties in vitro…Result of time-of-addition studies suggested that prodelphinidin B-2 3′-O-gallate affected the late stage of HSV-2 infection. In addition, it was also shown to inhibit the virus from attaching and penetrating into the cell. Thus, prodelphinidin B-2 3′-O-gallate was concluded to possess antiviral activity with mechanism of inhibiting viral attachment and penetration, and disturbing the late stage of viral infection. PMID: 12495210 Pomegranate… Antiviral activity of tannin from the pericarp of Punica granatum L. against genital Herpes virus in vitro][Article in Chinese. Zhongguo Zhong Yao Za Zhi. 1995 Sep;20(9):556–8, 576, inside backcover. Based on cell culture techniques this study has demonstrated that tannin from the pericarp of Punica granatum is an effective component against genital herpes virus (HSV-2). The tannin not only inhibits HSV-2 replication, but also shows stronger effects of killing virus and blocking its absorption to cells. PMID: 8679095

Anti-herpes simplex virus effect of an aqueous extract of propolis Isr Med Assoc J. 2002 Nov;4(11 Suppl):923–7. …In vivo: as little as 5% propolis prevented the appearance and development of symptoms of local and i.p. HSV-1 infection in rats and of corneal HSV-1 infection in rabbits. There were no cytotoxic effects at a concentration of 10% in vitro or 20% in vivo. CONCLUSIONS: The potent antiviral activity of propolis against HSV-1 infection in vitro and In vivo is probably due to prevention of virus absorption into the host cells and/or inhibition of an internal step(s) during the viral replication cycle.

9 PubMed hits on Propolis and herpes.

15 PubMed hits on Quercetin and herpes.

Resveratrol suppresses nuclear factor-kappaB in herpes simplex virus infected cells. Antiviral Res. 2006 Jul 14; Resveratrol inhibits herpes simplex virus (HSV) replication by an unknown mechanism. Previously it was suggested that this inhibition may be mediated through a cellular factor essential for HSV replication [Docherty, J.J., Fu, M.M., Stiffler, B.S., Limperos, R.J., Pokabla, C.M., DeLucia, A.L., 1999. Resveratrol inhibition of herpes simplex virus replication. Antivir. Res. 43, 145–155]. After examining numerous cellular factors, we report that resveratrol suppresses NF-kappaB (NF-kappaB) activation in HSV infected cells. Reports have indicated that HSV activates NF-kappaB during productive infection and this may be an essential aspect of its replication scheme [Patel, A., Hanson, J., McLean, T.I., Olgiate, J., Hilton, M., Miller, W.E., Bachenheimer, S.L., 1998. Herpes simplex type 1 induction of persistent NF-kappa B nuclear translocation increases the efficiency of virus replication. Virology 247, 212–222; Gregory, D., Hargett, D., Holmes, D., Money, E., Bachenheimer, S.L., 2004. Efficient replication by herpes simplex virus type 1 involves activation of the IkappaB kinase-IkappaB-RelA/p65 pathway. J. Virol. 78, 13582–13590]. Electromobility shift assays determined that resveratrol, in a dose dependent and reversible manner, suppressed activation of NF-kappaB in Vero cells infected with HSV-1, HSV-2 and acyclovir resistant HSV-1. Furthermore, resveratrol did not protect IkappaBalpha, a cytoplasmic NF-kappaB inhibitor, from degradation in HSV-1 infected cells. Immunohistochemical studies demonstrated that RelA/p65, a component of the dimeric NF-kappaB complex, translocated to the nucleus of HSV-1 infected cells in the presence of resveratrol. Finally, direct effects on viral transcription and DNA synthesis were evaluated. Real-time RT-PCR analysis showed that resveratrol treatment of infected cells resulted in reductions of mRNA for ICP0, ICP4, ICP8 and HSV-1 DNA polymerase by 2.1-, 3.3-, 3.8- and 3.1-fold, respectively. Plus, mRNA for glycoprotein C, an HSV late gene, was completely absent in the presence of resveratrol. Lastly, quantitative PCR showed that resveratrol significantly blocked HSV DNA synthesis. Cumulatively, these data indicate that resveratrol (i) suppresses HSV induced activation of NF-kappaB within the nucleus and (ii) impairs expression of essential immediate-early, early and late HSV genes and synthesis of viral DNA. PMID: 16876885

Resveratrol inhibition of herpes simplex virus replication.Docherty JJ, Fu MM, Stiffler BS, Limperos RJ, Pokabla CM, DeLucia AL. Antiviral Res. 1999 Oct;43(3):145–55. Resveratrol, a phytoalexin, was found to inhibit herpes simplex virus types 1 and 2 (HSV-1 and HSV-2) replication in a dose-dependent, reversible manner. The observed reduction in virus yield was not caused by the direct inactivation of HSV by resveratrol nor inhibition of virus attachment to the cell. The chemical did, however, target an early event in the virus replication cycle since it was most effective when added within 1 h of cell infection, less effective if addition was delayed until 6 h post-infection and not effective if added 9 h post-infection. Resveratrol was also found to delay the cell cycle at S-G2-M interphase, inhibit reactivation of virus from latently-infected neurons and reduce the amount of ICP-4, a major immediate early viral regulatory protein, that is produced when compared to controls. These results suggest that a critical early event in the viral replication cycle, that has a compensatory cellular counterpart, is being adversely affected. PMID: 10551373

There are 3 other listings for resveratrol working against herpes.

Tea tree oil: the science behind the antimicrobial hype. Lancet. 2001 Oct 13;358(9289):1245. No abstract available. PMID: 11675072

Melaleuca alternifolia (tea tree) oil gel (6%) for the treatment of recurrent herpes labialis. J Antimicrob Chemother. 2001 Sep;48(3):450–1. No abstract available. PMID: 11533019

Tom DVM – at 10:58

Beehiver Fredness. Thanks.

31 October 2006

crfullmoon – at 19:58

bump

Bump - Bronco Bill – at 21:26
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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / What If IT Doesnt Happen

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: What If IT Doesnt Happen

21 October 2006

Anon for this one – at 17:24

OK…I have alienated a lot of my family and some friends because they think I am off of the deep end. I’ve been called a loon, not to mention a few other choice stereotypes. People act as if I am waiting on a alien ship to arrive or something…I have been preparing for a long time and have a lot of what I feel I need, IF, there is a future pandemic…but what if it never happens? That possibility is also out there isn’t it? Is it worth the loss of love from the person that I married, to keep on prepping, when it is only causing a deeper and deeper rift between us? Perhaps this is too much of an “emotional” thread, but not all of us are supported in our efforts to secure a reasonable amount of preps. I’m not talking about entire solar and water system for a home, just a reasonable amount of food and some extras for a few months. More than what you would need for an isolated incident, but not enough for what I feel I would need for an extended pandemic. I don’t think I am “out” there as opposed to a few of you guys who may have gone to some extremes, but I have done what I feel is necessary and still have a list of things I want to do,…Is it worth a divorce to be prepared? Or if it never happens, will I forever be the brunt of “bird flu” jokes?

moeb – at 17:33

interesting… sounds like yer headed for troubled waters anyway you cut it. hey I have solar, but then again it was all my money that bought it. perhaps yours is a budgeting problem? I do feel for you, allotment of dollars that can’t be linked to eating or regular use bought now for later use… can be a difficult commitment.

even in our own minds we will forever be a bit crazy in regards to bird flu… until it comes

Worried in Wales – at 17:36

I would imagine that a lot of us have been here to a certain extent.

Would it be helpful to say to your spouse “ok, maybe you don’t believe this is going to happen but it is really worrying ME - can you please indulge my little idiosyncracy on this one?” or perhaps make jokes yourself about your ‘paranoia’ so that they might be a bit reassured that if you still can laugh at yourself you’re not going ‘mad’. They might be able to appreciate that your actions show love and a sense of responsibility on your part even if they don’t agree with your assessment of the danger.

As far as the rest of the family and friends go - perhaps it would be best to stop talking about it with them - until of course TSHTF and they all want to talk to YOU about it. :)

Milo – at 17:50

Sometimes the ridicule does make one feel that they have no respect for your intelligence and common sense, doesn’t it? Very hard to deal with. I agree with W-i-W that joking about it yourself can make everyone feel better (depending on the circumstances, of course). The other day visiting my brother and s-i-l a little bird happened to hit the window. I said, “maybe it was bird flu.” Little things like that really help.

If the next pandemic is not caused by h5n1 or h5n1 turns out to cause a mild pandemic, or none of the serious problems happen, I expect a certain amount of jokes.

That’s Just Ducky! – at 17:52

Maybe friends and family don’t realize that pandemics are a regular occurance. I would say you could buy John Barry’s “The Great Influenza”, an account of the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic, and read them some passages. Tell them that pandemics are recurring events and scientists say we’re overdue. I would also tell them not to come crying to me when it happens and they haven’t stocked up any food and water, because I’ve got my own to take care of. They were warned. The squirrel who puts away the nuts lives through the winter, and the one who doesn’t starves.

KimTat 17:53

I don’t have a live in partner, but my family thinks I’m a bit of a loon. They humor me and probably make comments to each other about me when I ma not around. My daughter is angry with me for spending money on supplies and not on her, I’ve decided she is a tad bit spoiled. She has not gone without anything she needs.

She told me straight out—that she much prefers to not know anything about anything bad. She intentially ignores and blocks negitivity out including anyone who gets sick in the family, the news… she is 15, when I was her age…I could cook for a large family and take care of the whole household. If something happens to me, she will be in major trouble but she refuses to learn how to do anything practical. I’m at my wits end with her but don’t get me wrong she is a great kid, honor student, trustworthy, great sense of humor. Its my fault I’ve always made the kids put school first.

My adult son seems to get it and a few friends. What made me feel better tho was knowing that my neighbors who don’t hang out here are taking it very serious and preparing to SIP too.

I have the same thoughts too, ok the food will get eaten and I usually have what I need now instead of running to the store all the time.

I’ve gained alot of important knowledge, but did I really need the solar set-up? The 12 food grade barrells for water, I got them for free but will I ever use them? And the oil lamps and all that oil and propane.. and the sleeping bags and tents. I occansionally visulize people coming to take me away and my family shaking their heads saying poor delusinal(sp) Kim as they get rid of all my stuff in a garage sale.

Goju – at 17:57

I don’t care - I can now sleep at night.

Sniffles – at 18:14

My husband used to poke fun at me and my “new hobby” of drying food, canning, getting items at garage sales that could be useful for our family, and picking up canned/dried food and storing it around the house. My husband doesn’t joke anymore with all of the clusters happening and things spiraling rapidly. His grandparents cried and thanked us when we told them that we wanted them with us if something should happen. We will probably end up with many people at our house and my husband has now come to that realization.

A month or two ago, he asked me what we would do with all of this stuff if a pandemic never happened. I told him that the food would be eaten and we have already used some of the items when the power went out over summer. We were prepared and didn’t have to rush out to the stores. I told him that my biggest wish in the world is that he can make fun of me for decades to come for filling our closets and any nook and cranny of the house with stuff. His reply to me is that he wished that too, but he didn’t think it was going to happen - he is starting to hear the train whistle coming this way and thinks I am not blowing things out of proportion just because it is not in the news. He is reinforcing our message to our friends to prepare (this shocks me).

Sometimes people take longer to deal with potentially bad news and one way of dealing/coping with bad/scary news is to attack the messenger (us). Hang in there. If this does happen, you will be seen as a hero. If it doesn’t happen, you will still be able to use the items you have. I think thick skin is a prerequisite for all of us.

lady biker – at 18:20

Well, guess I can relate along with all you folks. My Significant Other walked out on me this last week. He couldn’t take it any more, but never said a word to me. So looks like I’m on my own with this. My family just sorta rolls their eyes and goes the other way, so I don’t mention it any more. I’m prepped as much as I will be able too for now. am hopeing to do a little more later if I can. Guess I just gotta pray and keep goin. Look for the good that comes from the bad, because I know there are others out there in worse shape. and I am not a whinner(sp). yet anyway……LOLOL

Green Mom – at 18:30

Well, you know, anythings possible we may NOT get pan-flu-wouldn’t that be lovely! I personally think its about a given but there is that (extreamly slim) chance it won’t. So what? In the last five years we’ve had a war, a major terrorist attack, a class 5 hurricane that took out a major American city, floods, droughts, ice storms,wild fires power-outages, “Storm of the Centuary”-well, ok that was more than five years but still…. THESE HAVE HAPPENED! If you really want to stay up at night and chew your fingernails to the quick, you can watch Discovery/Weather channel on the earthquakes/meteor hits/volcanic eruptions etc that have a high probablity of happening-and we won’t even talk about global warming/climate shifts.

Energy prices have soared, we have contaiminated food-e-coli in our greens, mad cow in our beef, salmonila in poultry/eggs….These are headlines everyday.

Now lets bring it down to a personal level-What if you or your spouse lose your job? Job security is not at all what it used to be. What if someone in your family gets ill and needs extended expensive medical care-that can wipe you out finacially. Even something relativly minor like say, a car wreck that totals your car and you can’t work for a few weeks- those canned goods in the basement look pretty damn good at that point. just a thought.

Kim-regarding your fifteen year old-I have one also. They can be fantasticlly wonderfull and incredably selfish and self centered at the same time. They eat a lot too. My husband, a child therapist, works with teens and assures me that this is a normal developmental thing and that most of them do outgrow it. He says I really should hold off strangling my son, even if he (the son) did eat all the bread and drunk all the milk in the house in the middle of the night while forgetting to close the basement door before the animals got out, because, if I kill him, not only would there be that whole child services thing to deal with, but also who would program the DVD player? ;-)

Anon for this one – at 18:33

I think what really got me was yesterday when I was talking to a neighbor about the possibilities of a pandemic and I was telling my “significant other” about it last night. The response was, “OMG, you didn’t, do you really want everyone to think that you have totally lost it?” Actually, I thought my neighbor was somewhat responsive, but he did seem to almost run to his car. :) And no, Moeb, it isn’t about money. I hate to admit it, but that is not an issue for us at all. I’ve been married for over 20+ years, can easily put away a couple of thousand a month in savings and investments, and for the most part have a happy marriage. My “other” just thinks I have lost touch with reality…perhaps I have. A Pandemic isn’t a given…I don’t want to begin hoping it will happen so that i will be justified. I think I will just “go with” what I have, and quit trying to put the final “extras” in place.

econ101 – at 18:34

KimT I occansionally visulize people coming to take me away and my family shaking their heads saying poor delusinal(sp) Kim as they get rid of all my stuff in a garage sale.

that is so funny

KimTat 18:35

Green Mom – at 18:30

Kim-regarding your fifteen year old-I have one also. They can be fantasticlly wonderfull and incredably selfish and self centered at the same time. They eat a lot too. My husband, a child therapist, works with teens and assures me that this is a normal developmental thing and that most of them do outgrow it. He says I really should hold off strangling my son, even if he (the son) did eat all the bread and drunk all the milk in the house in the middle of the night while forgetting to close the basement door before the animals got out, because, if I kill him, not only would there be that whole child services thing to deal with, but also who would program the DVD player? ;-)

LOL

My daughter and I look at each other sometimes, just after we get in a row-smile and remmind each other we will both out-grow this someday.

Urdar-Norway – at 18:37

Anon for this one:

if I was you I would just relax the hole prepping. After all you are better prepared than 90% of the population, that shold be enough, Now go and live your life! There will be time to catch that falling knife. And maybe picking up trecking as a hobby would do you all some good. For trecking you will ned some nice camping gears and skills, and it very good for your mind and health to get some fresh air :-) Or maybe woulantair for the Red Cross would be wise if nature is not at hand. Plentifull of skills and things to learn there, and you will be a social responsible person, not a “antisosial hide in the basemnet wacko” if some people thnik so.

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 18:39

Kim - My kids are both teens (well you know that from bait thread).. They are often seemingly selfish, narcissistic creatures, especially the older one. But they are, at their core, good people. I know that when life is not easy they will deal with it. Rise to the occasion. Other than the fact that they’ll have no choice I know they are truly good people and will be appropriately resilient when they need to be. I’d bet your daughter falls into a description similar to my kids, and will be strong and selfless when she needs to be too.

Anon for this one – at 18:42

Thanks Urdar…yes, I definitely have the camping gear..It would be nice if it were “justified”. I’m a great cook over a campfire, if I must say so myself. :) That in and of itself, won’t be a problem.

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 18:43

lady biker - sorry about your signif.other. Hope you’re OK.

Ruth – at 18:44

My husband refers to my prepping as my “bird flu stash”. I know he thinks I’m a little nuts, but oh well. One time he yelled down the stairs that we were out of toilet paper and my kids and I just started laughing. (I have enough TP for about 2 months.) We never run out of staple items.

crfullmoon – at 18:46

If people were keeping deeper pantries and using and rotating and replacing their stock,

keeping the financial cushion normally recommended for “rainy days” (however many months of income that is), and prepped, and practiced for outtages,

were taking extra first aid or repair classes, and forming CERT teams, or neighborhood watches, or getting community supported agriculture started in your area, teaching kids skills, (whatever sort of thing appeals to you and your area needs)

then coming home to a water main break/well problem,

or an unusually severe storm takes power lines down for a week or two,

or someone’s job vanishes,

or someone ends up in the hospital, and then comes home and can’t drive for a few weeks,

or there is some sort of wildfire/ earthquake/tornado/derailment/accident/fire with a toxic cloud that requires evacuating/blizzard with driving discouraged, whatevah,

people would be much more ready to take it in stride.

And, if some sort of emergency happens and the feds can’t help and the state can’t help, and the locals say, “We had no idea it could be this bad! You’ll have to cope on your own for an unknown time”, your family might be ready to do that.

We have already been officially warned; in a worst case pandemic, local communities are on their own, and we know how unready they are go through a pandemic influenza year

The generations who lived through the Great Depression, WWII, or, who live now in countries in turmoil would not think you are off the deep end, anon for this one; life can change in a minute, even for “good people”, even in a “modern” country. (1918 America felt very modern and medically advanced at the time, too.)

Spirit in the Wind – at 18:52

Lady Biker, I’m sorry too. This has got to be a hard time for you. Sending warm thoughts your way.

lady biker – at 18:53

Thanks Lisa in Souther Main……yea I’m fine. but it’s funny too cause I’ve been takin my feeling out in the kitchen. I’ve baked more bread than I know what to do with and got another batch rising. guess ya could say I’m perfecting my cooking skills therapudically….(bad spelling) but get the idea anyway.. and my house is so clean it squeeks…mrs clean here just keeps goin and goin …polished the door knobs……..think I need help..hahahh……..na…just a nap.

KimTat 18:55

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 18:39

Thanks, she is a good kid and has a goodheart. I was talking with my oldest last night and he thinks she has and is blocking things out because their dad has basicly abandoned them again, he started to get more involved briefly and then he got a new girl friend this year and ignores then again and she just prefers to live in her own world and block out negitive things. She takes it out on me alot, I know what she is doing and she will admit to being to harsh on me, but thats because she knows I will never leave or stop loving her.

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 18:57

Lady Biker - good way to direct emotional energy. Time to consider building a solar array - you’re definately up to the task right now! And if you need help eating that bread, well, me and the kids could offer our assistance!

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 19:00

KimT - yes, my oldest withdraws to mull things over and come to terms with them too. Thank all higher powers she has you, and knows you are strong and loving enough to withstand her pain. She’ll be fine, with that kind of love, no matter how unreliable her father is.

KimTat 19:00

Lady Biker, I’m sorry—do you have someone staying with you?

From all the post of yours that I have read you seem like a very stong and sensible women and when your ready for more cleaning, come on over and help me organize my preps…cleaning and cooking is very good for when your outa sorts, sad and angy..I have a punching bag in the basement I used a lot when I went thru my divorce years ago. Thats when I took up Tae Kwon Do ;)

Anon for this one – at 19:01

crfullmoon- I couldn’t agree with you more. Unfortunatley, I am living and dealing with a person (people) who doesn’t(don’t) believe that this has ANY chance of happening. I am ridiculed left and right. My “other” did get the swine flu and said it was “nothing”. Despite my repeated warnings that the “swine flu” was a “minor” pandemic, my words go unheeded. My greatest fear of all of this, is to lose my family because I won’t be able to convince them to SIP and they will be out there taking all the risks. I have the “Great Influenza,” and have gotten some to read at least the “Afterword”, and its references to a pandemic and H5N1. I’m still not winning the “game”. When anyone sneezes at my house, they say “bird flu” and everyone laughs. Maybe we deserve to all die. My only concern is I know I have influenced at least a few others to “prep” and if all of this fizzles out, I think they will never trust me again as far as sounding an alert. I feel as if I have this one chance to make a difference.

Texas Rose – at 19:14

I’m with Goju – at 17:57.

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 19:15

Anon - you don’t need a pandemic to teach them, to make a difference. You’re already teaching preparedness, a rare skill in our society.

When they ridicule you, reflect back to them. How about not defending, not justifying, but just consistently reflecting back to them. When they laugh after a sneeze, how about calling them on it? Telling them “you know, it’s natural for people to ridicule what they don’t understand. How about taking some responsibility and educating yourself a little?” When they reply with “oh ya. cuz wer’re all goona die from the biiirrrd fluuu”, say “What do you know about pandemic threats? Have you read any of the information available?’.

When your partner gets angry at you prepping, reflect it back, no justification. “You’re angry about my prepping. It’s easy to get angry about somethng you don’t understand. When you care to educate yourself about this threat I’ll care to converse with you about it”. Harsh, you can probably soften it somewhat, but hopefuly overall picture conveyed.

Every time you defend yourself you strengthen their position, and reinforce your position as their scapegoat. Put their attitude right back on them. Stop owning their negativity. It’s hard to feel like you have to defend yourself all the time. Turn the tables. Be brief, consistent, and just keep reflecting what they say right back to them without apologizing, defending or rationalizing the careful prepping behavior you should be so proud of!

ANON-YYZ – at 19:16

If it doesn’t happen, all preppers will celebrate with a bigger tangible savings account of preps than the non-preppers. Your reaction now may be buyer remorse, but if you don’t prepare, you probably would spend some of the money on something useless. So prepping is good, you can’t lose.

Watching in Texas – at 19:26

Anon for this one - first of all, you have my sympathy in having to deal with this. My DH is supportive, but only up to a point. He does think a pandemic could happen, just does not want to hear about it all of the time and gets a little miffed when he finds canned vegies in the bathroom instead of toilet paper:-) On the other hand, I only have one friend who is prepping - everyone else that I have talked to thinks I am well on the way to insanity. My family, though, is prepping, although not to a great extent, at least to some extent. In dealing with your spouse, I would be tempted to not mention it anymore, but that is just my humble opinion. I rarely tell my DH everything I have done to prepare. It ‘s not that I am hiding it from him, just that he gets tired of hearing about it, so I just do it, but don’t talk about it much. Good luck with this. I’ve been laughed at too and I know it is hard to deal with. Keep us posted.

Anon for this one – at 19:38

Watching in Texas..sounds like we are in similar “boats”. I think I will just keep my mouth closed from now on, being as best prepared as I can, and taking what life has to deal me with as much grace as possible.

Lady biker…I hope your Significant Other didn’t leave “just” because of the preps. If everyone left me, I figure I would have “preps” for several years. :) Maybe that perspective will make you feel a little more optimistic. :)

Dr Dave – at 19:43

These are survival lessons for my teenagers and a hedge against inflation for my wife and me. Will we ever again find TP for 19 cents (US) per roll? Highly unlikely. Will my kids ever encounter another pandemic in their lifetimes? Absolutley. If it does not happen soon, it is a win-win situation. The opinions of others are like water off a healthy duck’s back.

anonforthisone,too – at 20:01

I spent some long and scary nights when I thought ‘IT” was happening and I wasn’t ready (had not started, actually), thinking through what was needed to survive and making it happen.

Got some negative/unsympathetic feedback. Decided that I am not going to back down. Attitudes changed.

I will not be disparaged in my own home for doing reasonable things that will help in any number of situations that many of you have listed out. That’s my decision and everyone else can deal with it. And you know what? They do.

Now I’ll admit I may be a little obsessed (less so now that I have some basics covered), they show some interest. There’s give and take but not about the fundamental question of to prep or not. That is not negotiable. If anyone wanted to leave because of that, I would question the soundness of the relationship. (“you want us to starve becasuse … why again??)

ColdClimatePrepperat 20:05

It takes time for people to “get it”. A year ago my husband was a bit baffled, possibly even slightly irritated, with my endless spaghetti jars full of rice and beans and my desire to keep at least 30 boxes of pasta in the cupboard at all times. Now he is fully engaged in the prep project too. I think he got there by first just understanding that the preps made me feel better, even if he did not get the reason himself. He understands the real danger himself now, because he was willing to listen to a few facts. He even now owns one of those unmentionable items that makes a loud bang noise. We have both come a long way towards facing some worst case scenarios. Our families now “get it” enough to have accepted our offer of shelter so we can all band together if need be.

I think sometimes people find it is less scary to think we preppers are all nutcases, than to face the possibility of a pandemic with high mortality. The human mind is difficult to influence when it is trying to protect itself.

moeb – at 20:09

also wishing Lady Biker the best, rebirth perhaps ;-)

lady biker – at 20:48

I want to thank everyone for their thoughts for me. and I wish Anon for this one all the strength and understanding she can get. Yes I am alone for this one, but I’m a born country girl so I’ve got some backbone to give me strength. There are a lot of things that happen or don’t happen, as the story goes, that we may never get answers to, but maybe somehow we will all be stronger and maybe a better person for going through the fire. yea no one told us that life would be easy, and we all have to take one path or another and hope it’s for the best but if not it’s a lesson learned. So tomorrow I think I might go buy some more rice and beans. catch yall later…….and keep smiling. we’ll get there eventually………:)

Grace RN – at 20:49

Party at Hillbilly Bill’s; no beans or rice permitted!

lady biker – at 21:11

Ok Grace RN……I’ll leave the rice and beans for another time but what about these 12 one LB. Hershey bars laying here on the table….my latest preps to be put away…….hahahahhaha

Anon for this one – at 21:12

And where is Hillbilly Bill’s again? and at what time? Is it BYORWFK?

Another anon for this one – at 21:15

Well, I don’t know what’s in the air today, but when one of my prep orders arrived this afternoon my DH grabbed the package and said, “That’s it, this is the last one. I have put up with this craziness long enough. You are done and if you don’t believe me we are going to have some serious problems living under the same roof”. Wow.

I can relate to all of you. All my best lady biker and the rest of the anons. I still believe in what we are doing, more than ever.

Olymom – at 21:20

For Anon —it can be really sneaky to praise DH and others for whatever their strengths are — just keep ladling out “I really appreciate how you . . .” — be sincere — and sooner or later they respond -perhaps even with “how you do all this work for us” — I live in a male dominated household (even the retrievers are male) and it is easy to become the butt of jokes or sneers (particularly with teen males!) — I will call them on it “It’s not nice to sneer at some one who is truly trying” — but I’ll also ladle out the approval and it helps. Sometimes the sneers are about control issues. I’m a pretty strong personality and there are times when I don’t even realize that one of my guys is looking for space and is handling it by pushing on me (whose knee jerk reaction is to push back). I have to dig a bit to get to what the sneer and pushing is really about.

I am guilty of hiding some of my purchases (I figure I’ll ebay the unopened Berkey water filter next year or the year after that if things go well this winter) — and I’m willing to say to DH “You know, if I’m wrong about this winter, I’ll take this stuff to the food bank and get a tax donation receipt for us” if he does get fussy (hasn’t so far) — and sometimes it helps to turn into Barbara Wawa and interview the family --- “if time, health and money weren’t limiting factors, what would you like to do in the next few years?” etc — I fortify with chocolate first, because sometimes it’s something I already know about and I have just opened the door to hear about it IN GREAT DETAIL — but that can help get us to a happier place too.

Dear ladybiker, I went from boyfriend 1.0 to heartbreak 2.0 to improved boyfriends versions 3.0 to 6.0 and ended up with wonderful dude 25.0 — so I will hope you are on a similiar path. I now look back on the heartbreak time as life feng shei (cleared out the rubble and clutter) --- hmm, now you have more room for preps — and if the next upgrade version of fellow brings his own, you could be gravy . . . hmm, some one with massage training — spa SIP . . . now if it also came with a wine cellar . . . best of luck to both you ladies. Life’s a bxxxx some days, and that’s the truth.

Grace RN – at 21:22

Another anon for this one – at 21:15

Wow, that’s intense and very stressful. What’s been his take on this all along? Do you have kids? Is it a $$ issue? (My DH was kinda the same, but we’ve been married 35 years and he knows my ‘I’m doing it anyway so shut-up’look.

He leaves me alone now.

Another anon for this one – at 21:28

Grace RN Yes, it was quite a blow, so much so that I feel the need to be anonymous tonight. We do have children and while he has never jumped on the prepping band wagon, he has kind of let me do my own thing. I think there is some stress going on at work to the point that maybe he is considering leaving his position. So it probably does have to do with money. The best thing that came out of the arguement was at the end when he said well at least if I come home one day and say I quit my job we will have food to eat. And I smiled and said exactly….you get it! We kind of made up after that but I’ve been tiptoeing around all evening.

InKyat 21:31

Given what we know, we are wise to prepare, whether a pandemic comes this winter or two years from now or ten. We will still have been wise to prepare even if we end up looking like fools to others for a time. Actually, given the alternative, looking like fools is absolutely our best-case outcome ;→. Cyber hugs to those who are weathering a hard time from loved ones who don’t quite get it. But given the fragility of our JIT inventory systems and interdependent infrastructure, I doubt any of us will ever turn back.

InKyat 21:35

Olymom. H5N1 isn’t going away after this winter. It’s endemic in so many areas, there’s just not going to come a time when we are going to be able to say for sure, “This isn’t going to happen.” Keep that Big Berkey, so you don’t have to buy it all over again!

Anon for this one – at 21:36

Thanks for everyone for their word of advice and support. I’m tired tonight and plan on going to bed early. Tomorrow I should be back to my good old normal self. :) Hopefully, I won’t have any pandemic dreams that I will need to post first thing in the morning. Ha ha ha

I truly mean to convey my best to everyone. It seems that each of us has our own little hurdles that we are all trying to manage as best we can.

Who knows, if prepping causes a mass increase in divorces, maybe there will be a Fluwiki dating service later on. LOL (And I mean that in only the nicest, tongue in cheek way!)

An example of the perfect partner:

Fully prepped for two years, 10 cases of RWFK, lots of chocolate, solar array and 20,000 gallons of water. Likes puppies and likes to cuddle. Also have an AK-47 and 1500 rounds.

HillBilly Bill – at 21:37

Grace RN – at 20:49

We can do a mini-Woodstock, I’ve got the room!

senegal1 – at 21:39

Hi Grace RN. Sorry for your situation lady biker glad to see that you are dealing. Anon for this one — hang in there. Someone in our group that met today said it all for me: you pay money for insurance and you get nothing back from that; think of this as insurance against an emergency or lose of income or health AND you get it all back because you can use it later!

DoubleDat 21:42

anon for this one - does your family disrespect you on this issue only? If it is just this matter - I would stop where you are on the prepping and just resume your normal day to day life prior to prepping. The preps are there when you may need them. I would also quit trying to convince/talk to others in your real life about it. You have this online community to talk with for your emotional and informational needs on the subject - but obviously the people in your real life do not and will not “get it”. So don’t waste your energy and emotion trying to push it.

If this is just a more magnified situation from what is a normal mode of treating you - then I would seriously evaluate the relationships you are in. No one deserves to be treated with disrespect on a regular basis. Period.

Just my opinion. Only you know what the situation is truly like - and can answer the question of what to do next.

janetn – at 22:01

Do you have home insurance? Your house will propably never burn to the ground, or be leveled in a storm, but would your husband think it was wise to play the odds and go without insurance. Id ask him if he would feel secure without insurance. You wont look near the nutcase if you frame your preparations as a insurance policy akin to home insurance. If it doesnt happen its the same as the house not burning down but you at least have something tangable [food] with insurance you have canceled checks.

moeb – at 22:03

wickedly chuckles in the background

cottontop – at 22:10

I’m going to lady biker’s and getting drunk on chocolate!! On my way I’ll stop and get some krispy cream donughts! (I sincerely hope things find a way of working out for you, lady biker. I believe there is a reason for why things happen to us, and it’s only later down the road that we can see why, if we look. Good luck to you.)

First, I would be interested to know how many females here are prepping as opposed to males. It seems to me that there are more females. Why is this? Is it the motherly instinct to make sure she can continue to care for her family? Is it left over from a more primal source? While the males are more layed back, and only get serious when it’s in their face. Interesting.

If there’s one thing that we should all get from this if It does’nt happen, is that with everything changing around us, it’s important more than ever to have a stock. I call it insurance, survival insurance. And it’s something to fall back on when times get lean. I was fortunate enough to grow up with a father who loved camping, and stocking. He was always experimenting with drying different foods in the dehydrator, seeing what material would seal the best, and always on the look out for stuff to put in his stock. Being I was female and his only child, he still felt it important to pass this on to me, teaching me, so that I could help my family survive someday. If people want to get back to self-reliant basics, teaching our children how to prepare for disaster, man-made or natural, is the first step. I fear what the world will be like when they are our age. If “It” doesn’t happen, we will be well prepared for whatever does happen next. AND, never stop prepping. Rotate, use up, replinish. Keep scouring garage sales, thrift shops, and by the time the next “IT” happens, you’ll be living like the Amish. “What happened? Didn’t bother us.” PREP FOR LIFE. I don’t really talk about this with extended family, or friends, whom I know are’nt “getting it”. I really don’t want to waste my time or theirs upsetting them, when I’d much rather be enjoying their company. If my family and friends are’nt interested, I’m not pushing. Anyway, enough of my rambling. Let’s pray this will fizzle out, and take some lessons from this, and keep prepping. Disasters come in all shapes and sizes, at any moment. and pay attention to what’s going on around us more. (that’s the hard part) Backwoods Home magazine-people gotta check that out. Best self reliant magazine around. www.backwoodshome.com been a big fan for years. It might help you solve some prepping problems. let me know what you think

kc_quiet – at 22:12

I just never, ever mention bird flu anymore. Ever. Sometimes they will bring it up, and I’ll answer questions. Meanwhile I prep my rear off. I have the advantage of having survived some hairy stuff. Maybe they think I’m odd, who cares? If anybody says anything , for example about peanut butter I get all huffy and indignant and tell them “I will NOT have running out of peanut butter in the middle chemotherapy again!HMPH”(Funny thing is, we never ran out before either, but if they remember that they are afraid to confront me on it). I also will NOT pay more than 25 cents for toilet paper,run out to the store for JUST dogfood, whatever.(And my personal favorite:”OH! You think you just turn on the faucet and water is always going to come running out, Huh?) Most of the time I am really easygoing.The rest of the time I am odd enough that they just let me be me.

Ladybiker, I have read enough of your posts to know you will be just fine, no question in my mind. I pray for the pain to pass quickly and happier days to follow.

KimTat 22:18

I came to fluwiki to get information on the bf and stayed even when I felt I said something stupid because, well we are all fighting the same battle. Even when I don’t speak up its good to read that others are feeling and thinking the same things.

 I really don’t have anyone to share this with in my real life. I somtimes wish I had a cranky husband to battle with, because when tshtf they will be there for you and be able to help with the day to day stuff And you will be able to hold onto each other and give each other strength and love.

 Yet at the moment I make all the decisions, other then my daughter who wants me to buy her a car instead of an optional heating sources there is no one to tell me I can’t have this or that. There are trade offs.
anonymous – at 22:18

ok - I vote for the fluwikie dating party at a highly prepped out singles “mini-woodstock” campout at Hillbilly Bills. BYOeverything. The best prepped will undoubtedly get to choose whom to invite over to their campsite. Hillbilly Bill, when is this partaaaaa for all us who wannabe hooked up with a special person to SIP?

I could even find the energy to argue about prep organization techniques (though I have none) if I didn’t have to SIP alone.

Those of you have spats with loved ones periodically regarding preps, money, ego power struggles - smile - someone loves you.

stilearning – at 22:20

me above and beyond

Spirit in the Wind – at 22:26

My SO has been tolerent, but I still get amused looks and pats on the head which lets me know he’s induldging me. So…yesterday, when he said there was only 2 of us and did we really need to buy toilet paper 30 rolls at a time, I decided it was time to have “the talk.” It was easier than I thought.

I simply said “Babe, you can think I am nuts if you want to. Frankly, I hope I am. The truth is, I would feel horrible if the pandemic came and I did nothing to prepare for it. H5N1 is getting closer to pandemic strain every single day, and that’s only one of the possibilites. Knowing what I know, how can I NOT take action? How could I even look you in the eye when TSHTF and we are both hungry and thirsty and maybe sick when I had this knowledge? I couldn’t live with myself. I am doing what I have to do and it would help if you’d cooperate.” He said he understood and helped me put supplies away.

He said we could always feed the whole block after the next hurricane for a few weeks if the flu never comes. 8^) I think he is getting it!

cottontop – at 22:27

KimT- at 22:18 you can have my cranky husband! (someone asked me how long I have been married. I just looked at them and said,”since 1899.” Boy the funny look I got, and then the ah.)

Annonx2 – at 22:32

Anon -

It’s not worth it to loose the one you love over prepping and possible pandemic BF.

My 2 cents … tell your husband/wife that they are the most important person in your life, and they’re right - it’s time to set the prepping & focus on bird flu aside and enjoy life.

You’ve probably already prep’d significantly,for the other stuff you may need make a list for when TSHTF (and discuss what that point may be with you partner) and put the list and your bird flu concerns in a drawer.

You’ll still be able to buy what you need IF/WHEN BF Pandemic takes off. Yeah, I know, it’s BUY NOW BECAUSE IT WILL NEVER BE AVAILABLE AGAIN & PREP AS IF YOU ARE GOING TO LIVE IN BIOSPHERE II with no contact with the outside world …. don’t believe all the hype. My guess is 95% of population has not prepped, 4 % have 2 weeks of supplies, 1% have 2 months (my estimates are probably on the Optimistic side!).

Over rotation on possible future events is not healthy -

o It distracts you from living and enjoying life NOW - each and every moment.

o It is an escape from day to day issues … (with the justification that if I/we don’t do this/buy that we will die when BF comes).

o Let your fears around BF Pandemic go … live and love for today.

Np1 – at 22:41

My wife is more than likely to bump up what I propose to buy. I am very lucky as we have always been on the same wavelength as far as being prepared goes. Her family thinks we are both nuts. I am glad they do not live anywhere near. Kelly

stilearning – at 22:43

One of the distinguishing characteristics of being human is that we do think about the future, and planning for the future is very important.

Some of us believe that the future will be very different than our current way of living. Having faith in our future involves planning to live in a different way. Prepping includes many new skills and new ways of thinking besides stocking an inventory of goods.

mj – at 22:47

Olymom - massage therapist… Great Idea!

Anon for this one – at 21:36 - Fully prepped for two years, 10 cases of RWFK, lots of chocolate, solar array and 20,000 gallons of water. Likes puppies and likes to cuddle. Also have an AK-47 and 1500 rounds. - I like your thinking.

Kim - I’m just glad I have kids to do this for. Don’t always need a SO/DH/etc. And grandkids are the best reason of all to prep. I’d hate the thought of prepping for just me.

Lady Biker - I’m sorry for the pain, but glad if he was leaving he did it before PF and not during. Keep your chin up and I’ll see you at Hillbilly Bill’s where we can look at possiblities for a replacement for the idiot (I figure he must be one, since he left you). An upgrade is in order I think.

cottontop – at 22:56

annonx2 WoW! Well said. That pretty much is how you must do it. What I don’t understand, is if two people are friends, why does the BF and prepping become an issue for the other? That has nothing to do with the firendship. (excluding spouses of course) To me, that speaks alot about what your friendship means to them. either that, or they are really immuture.

Repomadman – at 23:01

Well, after reading some of the ladies comments I have to say I have it pretty good. The wife thinks I’m a bit off with the prepping (currently sitting at about 5 months worth), but tells me that after 13 years of marriage with enough good calls in the past she can live with it. For example, she now admits that she thought I was nuts when I completely sold all stocks in the IRA’s etc. 7 years ago before the crash or moved heavily into gold and silver a little over 3 years ago.

This my be heresy here, but I’m not completely sold on the BF. Do I agree it’s a possibility? Yes. Do I think it will definitely be a problem? No. I prep for many reasons. I’m in my mid 40′s and have been an amateur historian and economist for over 30 years. I’ve always been the type that would read a history text or economic text for FUN, and Lord help me if I miss my daily Wall Street Journal or can not get market updates. History repeats itself over and over again. Alot of people don’t realize that alot of economic principles are as much of a law as the law of gravity - supply and demand for example. There are certain economic principles that if ignored they will extract a heavy price - whether it is done by an individual or nation - and we here in the US have been ignoring those principles for decades. Just look at Argentina in the 90′s or what is happening in Zimbabwe right now for a idea of what is coming.

Sorry, I seem to be wondering. My point is that the BF is not the only reason to prep. My first bet for trouble in the future is an economic crash at a level comparable to the Depression. Might BF happen? Yes. In fact it may be the final straw in bringing on the crash, just as a terrorist attack could be that final straw or a massive earthquake in CA resulting billions upon billions in damages. If the BF dies out and in 2 years is nothing but a foggy memory I’ll be thrilled - one potential problem crossed off my list, but I’ll still prep.

cottontop – at 23:11

Repomadman-

you echoed my sentiments. In fact that’s what started my stocking in the first place many years ago. Hard times. And it got us through. In good times, I replished.

cottontop – at 23:15

Repomadman-

you echoed my sentiments. In fact that’s what started my stocking in the first place many years ago. Hard times. And it got us through. In good times, I replished.

no name – at 23:23

Lady Biker and Anon for this One…my heart goes out to you…Rats, what difficult postitions for each of you. Kim T: I am grateful that I am the decider on the state of my affairs. It makes it ALOT easier.

The 5 people who know I prep ALL think I am wwwwaaaayyy over the top. They don’t even know about the composting toilet arriving next week!!!

I sign all my emails concerning BF…Chicken Little, aka Little Red Hen, aka Bird Flu Fluzzy. My brother said he was worried that I was too nervous and scared. To that, I said “I’m not scared…I’m prepared…REALLY prepared.

We ALL hope “it” doesn’t come…but what the heck, I never see the day when I am NOT going to need toilet paper. I took everyone’s advice and bought food I eat anyway, I never see the day when I am NOT going to eating. I just need to start cooking in instead of going out!!!

On the other hand, FluWikie is an intense group. The fuel for a frenzied fire feeds the group fear/concern. As I step back and look at the situation from a prepared point of view I can see it. Before I was “ready”, I was frantic, focused and fanatical.

Maybe that is the survival instinct in play or being caught up in the moment, but I can’t and don’t want to be in that place from this day forward until “whatever, whenever”. Maybe that is what the “others” in our lives fear…that we will never get to that feeling of being ok again and “hidden fear” will dominate your/their lives forever…I can see their point of view.

I know I spend too much time on the computer feeding the emotions of BF preparation…I keep telling myself I have to stop or at least reduce my time here. BF has gotten in the way of my “Living”. This is not good either.

I need to restore the balance in my life, which maybe the same thing family and friends are asking all of us who are posting and reading this thread. Because the reality of living is “NOW” is all we have…where are we? on-line, instead of participating in the “real life” with those we love.

22 October 2006

Texas Rose – at 00:51

I echo Repomadman – at 23:01′s thoughts. AF is just one of the reasons I prep.

AnnieBat 01:20

Bear with me on this one - hopefully I can make my point in a sensible way.

For those of you familiar with the comedian Billy Connolly, he once said this: “You can have your own television show and say ‘last night while I was talking with God …’ and nobody bats an eyelid. But go visit a friend in a psychiatric unit and say the same thing and they wouldn’t even let you go home to get your py-jamas!”

By that, it is all relative to the situation and the setting, and prepping for BF falls very much into the same category. If it was mentioned daily in the media, people wouldn’t bat an eyelid at what we say and do.

And we who are already prepped (or prepping) speak in months and having everything for every situation. We are passionate about the need and the process. So, when we speak to others that are not on the same ‘wavelength’ we are not going to get greeted with enthusiasm. It is like teaching a foreign language - we have to start with the simple everyday phrases first then build from there as people grow in their understanding.

As to what we will do if IT doesn’t happen? Well we have often mentioned that we want to have a Wiki Reunion. Perhaps we could all go home and get our pyjamas, and bring about 10% of our preps to the party with us and we could live like kings for a week or two! (Then go home and slowly cycle all the accumulated goodies through the usual daily/weekly usage.)

LauraBat 13:18

I would LOVE to be proven wrong and never, ever live to see a pandemic of H5N1 or anything else. Unfortunately, to date, I haven’t seen any evidence that IT (or something else) won’t happen. So, I keep on prepping. Close friends/family sometimes tease me about it, but don’t give me too much grief. Maybe because I haven’t pushed them that much. I think that ramming it down anyone’s throat usually doesn’t get you very far. I definitely thought people prepping for Y2K were nuts, and I get the sense that people who don’t know me as well think of me a bit in that way as well. Personally I didn’t see the risk and thought it was a lot of hype over something that could be fixed. There was time and a lot of smart people trying to fix it. There are lots of smart people working on H5N1 but they might not be able to fix it - IT could easily spin out of control despite their best efforts.

I look at it this way - do I stick my neck out and risk being thought of as a bit off versus the alternative - watching family, friends and neighbors struggle and perhaps even die because they weren’t warned? They still might not prep, but I have tried.

And if IT never happens, I’m so much better prepped for many other disasters. I am a smarter shopper now, we eat out less and eat healthier. I know oodles about power alternatives I never knew existed (if we ever build a house it’s going to be solar). I’ve gained a better sense of what is important to me and what isn’t. And I’ve met some very smart and interesting people. So, even if I’m wrong, I still come out ahead.

Safety Lady – at 13:23

I agree with almost all of the posters. If it doesn’t happen, I have over a year’s worth of groceries. I will save because of inflation. I can garden, I am woman, I am strong.

lady biker – at 13:39

just say the word, I’m ready for that py-jama party, and I have enough #10 cans of dried blue berries, apples, peaches, and strawberries to make the worlds biggest fruit bowl or a heck of a bunch of pies. I got dessert covered. hahahhahah…..I have a feeling we’ll all do ok……but last nite I said in my prayer….thanks for the understanding people I’ve met here…it is a bigger help than a lot of people know. and so a heartfelt THANK YOU again and may God bless yall………:)

anon – at 13:44

Anon for this one, First, I find it interesting that you and I both are not posting under our regular handles. Is it sacrilege to question ourselves like this? IMHO, I think the wiki might have a bit of group think going on right now. Are we reinforcing each others fears about a worst case scenario? I believe a pandemic will happen at some point and I think it is good to have some supplies set aside. However, it is not necessarily going to be a civilization buster. It could be a mild or moderate pandemic. Who knows? I think when people post that their significant other is thinking of leaving them over the BF preps that it is time to reassess what you are doing. Get off the wiki for at least two weeks and think about it. There are many on the wiki who are utterly convinced that this thing is happening soon and that it will be a civilization buster. I respect their ideas and agree that it could happen. But is it likely to be that devastating? No, in my opinion, I don’t think so. Final thought, if you are digging yourself into a debt hole, ruining relationships, or find yourself constantly worrying about a pandemic, I think it is worthwhile to ask yourself if you have taken this a step too far. Take the time to decide for yourself what the risk is and what measures are right for you.

KimTat 13:48

Being the ultimate decision maker in my house has its rewards and its downfalls. Knowing I am responsible for everything makes me stay on an even keel most of the time. My bills are paid, I go to work and even socialize. I don’t preach the bird flu mantra everywhere I go anymore but if its brought up I try to listen and inform when possible.

A co-worker brought in the AARP article for me to read since she new i was interested, but she was using it as a way to dissuade me from prepping?

She said that it wouldnt happpen for 5 more years and they had “seed” starter for a vaccination so there was nothing to worry about that the government would take care of and resucue everyone.

This is an intelligent strong independent women, she picked up on a few words “may” happen in up to 5 years and the seed starter and ran with it to confirm her own beliefs and desires without the possiblities of anything else. TPTB could scream it from every rooftop, front page news in every paper… and people still wont panick. Maybe very few would but I don’t think they need to worrie about mass hysteria.

Ive written letters, handed out flyers and cards, printed out gobs of data and talked both reasonably and emotionally to a wide variety of people. I’m not done attempting to help but i’m moving on.

diana – at 13:54

no advice. Sorry that prepping is a problem for both of the ladies. I will say one thing. Forget about prepping and make a date with your husband that he will never forget.

CabinLassat 14:01

Quote from above…”When your partner gets angry at you prepping, reflect it back, no justification. “You’re angry about my prepping. It’s easy to get angry about somethng you don’t understand. When you care to educate yourself about this threat I’ll care to converse with you about it”. Harsh, you can probably soften it somewhat, but hopefuly overall picture conveyed.”

I say, harsh? As I was reading that statement I though I heard the clang of a cast iron skillet on his head. I am not bitter.

Fiddlerdave – at 14:56

I’ve had people say “Look at the Y2K crisis - it NEVER happened. These scares are silly!” Well, because businesses and government were HIGHLY motivated to not have even a mild crisis because the computer networks and financial systems are how they make and COLLECT money, so WAY over $400 billion (some say a trillion or more) was spent to prepare! And VOILA! NO CRISIS! ONLY because of preparation, things went fine! I have made a few people thoughtful with this explanation.

Anon for this one – at 15:01

OK..this is my last post as an Anon…after this I will go back to my regular “handle”. :) I just didn’t feel comfortable talking so freely about something I was feeling so emotional about yesterday. A new day, a new perspective. :) I have decided (thanks to everyone’s input) to just relax my prepping for the time being. I have so many preps of so many different “kinds” that I do feel secure in what I have and what I have accomplished. We will not starve and I have enough to help a few others if need be. :) I love my DH and my kids more than life itself, (thus the prepping?) so no way am I going to allow this thing to pull us apart. I am going to try to be more understanding of why he feels the way that he does, vs. how it seems to be against how I feel. We both love each other and that is the most important thing. If that part weren’t true, I doubt I would have put so much energy into all of this. Maybe spend some money on something fun, for both of us? >;) Thanks again, it is nice to have a “family” that doesn’t think I’m nuts! Sometimes, the road just gets a little bumpy..

anonforthisonetoo – at 16:45

Anon for this one – at 15:01

It’s very big-hearted and generous of you to see it that way. Hopefully he would do the same for you, if the situations were reversed and you were pressuring him.

Mrs. Tweedy – at 18:02

This is my first post…lurking since January :)

My family loves the movie Chicken Run. So when I go on one of my prepping trips to the store and come home with cases of tin and 25–50lb bags of this and that… my husband always asks “why do we need this stuff?” and I always reply… “because those chickens are organized” and we have a good chuckle.

IMHO, If DH told me to stop prepping I would ask for a compromise. That way we could agree on what is reasonable…and I would feel better about having had his stamp of approval.

Best wishes to all of you!

NW – at 19:36

The other day my daughter said to me “Remember when you were all freaked out about that bird flu thing?” I replied “Yeah, I’m still watching it but not really freaked out any more” and that’s the truth. A potential pandemic is exactly that - potential. It is neither a certainty nor a remote possibility. It is somehwere in between. I’ve gone from thinking the chances are 10 to 1 to thinking more along the lines of 1 in 10. Still pretty high but not overwhelming odds.

I am fortunate in that I am a single parent and don’t need to worry about convincing someone else about anything. One of the major advantage of that status. I sympathize with those who must contend with that type of situation and frankly am not sure how I would handle it except to say that if it were between preparation and losing someone I truly loved of course I would choose the loved one. But I would also continue to educate myself and watch the situation and be prepared to take urgent action if things “heat up”. There is a time when a possibility becomes a probability and hen a certainty. We are not there yet in respect to BF.

no name – at 19:38

Fiddlerdave @ 14:16

When comparing Bird Flu to Y2K…Y2K was a mechanical problem with machines that humans designed. The problem was taken seriously and adverted.

Bird Flu is a biological problem that humans have no control over. Nature is in complete control.

While the projected consequences are similar, the origin is totally different.

RobTat 21:18

Anon for this 1;

Just thought I’d come in late on this one with my experience. Had a similar problem but we have kids and I just put it to my wife staight. I said “If you are right and I’m wrong (along with long list of credentialled sources, Osterholm, Webster etc), then we’ll have some extra rice. The impact of that is….? If you are wrong, and all these people who have been working with virus’s for many years are right, the impact will be….? Now I want you to go look at our kids and convince me that you are right. Now read this material, please and tell me what you think”

That changed everything. Has your partner actually read Osterholms writings?

Spirit in the Wind – at 22:06

I like your style RobT. That’s it in a nutshell.

Fiddlerdave – at 22:54

Truly, robT!

23 October 2006

RobTat 04:28

I mean, we are talking about our kids and each other DYING from this pandemic, arn’t we?

Is there some part of this that isn’t understood?

Kristy in CO – at 13:41

I’ve been away from the Wiki for a while, and I think it was good for my mental health. I was really obsessing over prepping for quite a while. The bad side to that, is that when you stop reading about it, you begin thinking that it won’t happen.

There has to be a happy medium.

I believe that we WILL in fact see a pandemic in our lifetime. Will it be H5N!? who knows.

But besides that there’s still hurricanes, earthquakes, volcanoes, the threat of biological or nuclear attacks…the list goes on.

There are so many things out there that we SHOULD be prepared for, because in the end, the people who are prepared…are the ones who are going to survive.

diana – at 14:23

anon for this says she is prepped. Why on earth stress yourself and a good marriage if your partner doesn’t see things your way. Some people will not see a problem until it shows it’s ugly face, has huffed and puffed and blown your house down. But anon is prepped comfortably well beyond the governments recomendation. She has worked on her preps for the family, now is the time to spend time shoring up the relationship, which has been threatened.Everyone has to go with the situation that they have. Some have money limitations. Some are anxious, some are relaxed, some are satisfied with the minimun, others need maximum. Some think prepping ever more is worth stressing their marriage. There are two sides to every situation. Anon is deferring to her husband for the present. Good for Anon.Any good marriage survives a lot of stresses and strains. Hopefully this is only a temporary stressor.

Urdar-Norge – at 14:48

prepping is not a lifestyle for everyone, and thanks for that. the world would be a boring place if everyone had it as a hobby :)

waprepper – at 16:21

“Is it worth a divorce to be prepared?” I could not be prepared without my husband… we live in a relatively high crime area now, and I can’t imagine what it will be like when TSHTF - we are going to need each other - it may even come to sleeping in shifts, etc.

I am crazy about the guy and madly in love with him, but even if he were a total jerk I would still want him around to man the shotgun! ha ha.

And he has no idea how to cook from scratch or to use a canner… maybe the divorce rate will go down because of all this??

RobTat 19:27

Personally, if my significant other completely discounted something that I was passionate and committed about, I would find that demeaning, no matter what the issue was. Doesn’t mean they have to agree with me, just that my views were taken seriously. And if they would not even examine objective evidence that supported my view, then what does that say about the person, the relationship?

The point I was making about the kids is that a parent’s job is to protect our children. Numero uno priority, in my mind. So a parent doesn’t really have the right to just intellectualize something away in the face of credible evidence that their child is at risk, do they? I know parents that are making an ACTIVE choice not to prepare….and I just don’t get it. It frustrates the hell out of me.

 We need some really credible people to stand up and say to the sheeple, “Hey, this could be really, really bad! So prepare, and hope it isn’t.” Nabarro, Webster, Osterholm are trying, so what is it going to take? Just unrelenting persistance?
Wolf – at 20:11

Hello all, My favorite advice on this thread so far has been from diana to ‘slow down the prepping and make a date with your husband that he’ll never forget!’ Great, under any circumstances. I’ve had the stuffing knocked out of me also lately. Oldest kid has told me “The next time you want to buy a case of food or whatever I want you to make a reservation somewhere and TAKE SOME TIME OFF!” We both work 2 jobs (He’s also a fulltime-honors- student) and we’ve spent the past decade caring for my alzheimer’s afflicted mother (at home throughout, until she mercifully passed), then my schizophrenic daughter (in semi-supervised living after 3 years of destruction) and are finally working our way out to daylight. I explained how I didn’t want all of this to have been an exercise in futility; how very much I want us to make it through this… He said “Ma, if it’s half as bad as you say it could be, I don’t want to do it. I don’t want to make it. I don’t want to rebuild the whole damn thing again. I just don’t.” We’re not speaking just now.

Carrey in VA – at 20:13

waprepper – at 16:21 maybe the divorce rate will go down because of all this??

Carrey in VA

I’ll bet your right! I think it will help folks not to take their spouses fpr granted.

InKyat 20:37

Wolf - I’ve heard much the same from my daughter. I wise up and lighten up, but I don’t give up. We both adjust. I hope the tension eases.

KimTat 20:43

Wolf, I just went through that with my daughter, we are talking again, I continue to prep as needed and just don’t talk with her about it. I never really talked that much about it with her anyway..I don’t think?

Maybe i have been over the top and a bit emo and I didn’t realize it.

We that are prepping see the potential and have gone and going thru the different adjustment stages our family and friends haven’t and we probably do sound abit emo at time.

We come here for education and fellowship,, like minds…and all..thank goodness we can share our thoughts and help each other plan and get thru some of this.

31 October 2006

crfullmoon – at 09:13

Wolf, all the best for your oldest. Like Winter and Summer and day and night, we all have low ebbs and hopefully there will be a higher tide for strength for the future when needed. Our task as a species. This is the ride we get through the Universe.

DC – at 15:34

KimT I also have no DH to share plans. This could be seen as a good or a bad thing, depending on whose post you just read! Its just me and the cats here. No-one —friends or family- wants to talk about BF. My only outlet is fluwikie.

IF no BF hits there are always other concerns- what if I lost one of my top clients (I’m self employed) or TB hit or …. Well I have a “savings” account in all of these preps. And it does give me peace of mind knowing I am well supplied.

I have prepped for my parents - just in case- if I could get them here in time. BUT I imagine I would probably be going it alone. So I have wracked my brains and read the threads covering “I hope” all possible needs/ emergencies.

I think that I could hold out alone for almost 2 years with the supplies I have which include large numbers of vegies seeds, water capture devices, non-electric heat and cooking, meds, an arsenal with plenty of ammunition, a well fortified yard, and a hiding place for supplies.

I might get awfully lonesome, but I’ve decided I would look at it as a spirtual retreat, like the old sage that wanders off to a mountain cave to meditate for a few years.

blackbird – at 18:37

DC - There’s an upside and a downside to everything, isn’t there? You get to make the calls without any opposition, but also without any help (not that having a SO around necessarily means help!).

Sounds like you have covered the bases and are ready for many different eventualities. My sense of the time period is not necessarily 18–24 months of straight isolation as much as lack of confidence in what happens in between waves. Or, actually, after the first wave.

I like your approach of taking this as a retreat. Best of luck to you!

Cloud9 – at 19:23

I’ll wind up with a life time supply of spam, some neat camping gear and a rather interesting gun collection. My dad’s Y2k stuff carried us through the 04 hurricanes quite well.

Bump - Bronco Bill – at 21:24
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Page last modified on October 31, 2006, at 09:24 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Possible Vectors from Chickens

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Possible Vectors from Chickens

01 September 2006

gharris – at 14:11

Chickens have a number of parasites - nice clear list of them with diagrams from Ohio State University bulletin is found here:- http://tinyurl.com/p48uo Among them is the Darkling Beetle which causes Acute Leukosis (Marek’s Disease) Marek’s disease usually affects birds between three and four months old. Symptoms are characterized by various degrees of paralysis, most easily observed in legs and wings. Droopy wings, gasping, loss of weight, pallor and sometimes diarrhea are also symptoms. Birds severely affected may be found lying on their sides with one leg stretched forward and the other held behind. The disease affects both broiler and egg laying types of poultry. Losses can reach two percent of the flock per day, and mortality may exceed 30 percent of the flock within a few weeks.

Acute leukosis is highly contagious and has been shown to be airborne. Contamination may persist in the environment because the darkling beetle may serve as a reservoir for residual contamination. Beetles have been observed feeding on carcasses of poultry dead of leukosis, and it appears that beetles may become contaminated in the process. Adult beetles are capable of retaining the contamination and transmitting the leukosis when eaten by chickens, in the opinion of some scientists. Other diseases which are spread include the causative agents of avian influenza, salmonella, fowl pox, coccidiosis, botulism and new castle disease. They also act as vectors of cecal worms and avian tapeworms.

any comments?? TOM DVM or others??

gharris – at 22:04

bump

gharris – at 22:50

Anybody know of any H5N1 studies involving the Darkling Beetle - I think he is a good candidate as the ‘vector’from infected chickens - the above article mentions avian influenza as one of the charming things he can spread!

Tom DVM – at 22:56

Hi g. Just a few thoughts.

It has been discovered that in at least one case H5N1 was found in flies that would have fed on chicken carcasses.

Therefore, theoretically, these parasites could be a vector of H5N1 but I would caution that there is a threshold concentration of virus required to produce clinical infection and we don’t know whether that threshold could be crossed with the low concentrations in parasites…

…but having said that H5N1 is a different ‘animal’ from I believe any other virus known to man and therefore the threshold would be much lower for this virus.

It is very important and Thanks for bringing it up.

I would expect other similar studies will be coming out soon.

Cygnet – at 23:55

Darkling beatles in larval form are meal worms.

They’re not especially common “in the wild.” I also suspect they’re a fairly minor vector; there’s other things — like chicken droppings and chickens sneezing on each other — that I suspect are far more significant.

For that matter, chickens are cannibals.

02 September 2006

Cygnet – at 00:01

By the way, Mareks is not a human health threat. It’s common, though I would expect that it would NOT be an issue in Indonesia because the susceptibility to Mareks is genetic and natural selection would lead to resistance. It’s a bigger problem in factory farms and among highly inbred show chickens. It’s a nasty disease — it’s a herpese virus that causes everything from brain damage, blindness and nerve damage to lymphoma (which manifests as sudden and dramatic weight loss) to great gross ulcers on the skin.

I found out about Mareks the hard way …

gharris – at 23:39

Cygnet - Sorry for your experience with Marek’s!!

My interest in Darkling/mealworm is that hey are known to carry AVIAN INFLUENZA according to Ohio State - Just wondered if anybody knew of any recent studies on that aspect - or if anybody knows any researcher at Ohio State who might be able to enlighten the Wiki abt that aspect??

03 September 2006

stormsailor1981 – at 13:11

i read a report that h5n1 was isolated from a dog in thailand. dead dog was found in area of human outbreak last year. dr took samples, they tested positive. he just released the information recently because he has been busy and wanted to confirm the positive test results.

stormsailor1981 – at 13:18

PEOPLE TOLD NOT TO PANIC AS DOG DIES OF BIRD FLU By Pennapa Hongthong (The Nation) September 2, 2006

The Public Health Ministry yesterday urged the public not to panic over news that a dog had died of bird flu.

Dr Paichit Warachit, the director-general of the Medical Sciences Department, asked the public not to be scared by a report that a dog in Suphan Buri had died after contracting the H5N1 virus.

Taweesak Songserm, the vet from Kasetsart University who found the carcass of the stray dog in Suphan Buri, said it had contracted and died of the disease after eating the carcasses of wild ducks and that it was a unique case.

Taweesak said he obtained the carcass of the dog on a field trip to Suphan Buri during the country’s first bird-flu outbreak in 2004.

However, he only completed his research that found H5N1 in cells in various organs of the dog’s body, including lungs, liver and kidneys, late last year.

Since it was going to be the first such case in the world, he said, the laboratory results needed to be confirmed by many labs.

Dogs became the fourth mammal species reported as having contracted the virus. The other three are humans, tigers and cats.

Taweesak said he was going to publish the findings of his research, which was a joint project between his university’s Faculty of Veterinary Sciences and Chulalongkorn’s Faculty of Medical Sciences, in the journal Emerging Infectious Diseases

FrenchieGirlat 14:16

Thinking aloud, mmmmm, are the following parts of the puzzle or not? Just in case, I’ll make this post a sort of note for the record (following excerpts, emphasis is mine).

Yesterday on this thread, Cygnet – at 00:01 — “…By the way, Mareks is not a human health threat. It’s common, though I would expect that it would NOT be an issue in Indonesia because the susceptibility to Mareks is genetic and natural selection would lead to resistance. It’s a bigger problem in factory farms and among highly inbred show chickens. It’s a nasty disease — it’s a herpese virus that causes everything from brain damage, blindness and nerve damage to lymphoma (which manifests as sudden and dramatic weight loss) to great gross ulcers on the skin. […] I found out about Mareks the hard way.”

and

Thread IndonesiaOutbreakIV - FrenchieGirl – at 11:26. Thoroughbred vs. nonpedigreed chickens - Should that make a difference? I have noticed several times that they mention it. In fact, there was one article on MetroTV (about the prices fetched by chickens on the market) that was very ambiguous about this, I wondered whether the people there seem to make a difference/have been surprised by which chickens get sick and/or customers wanting to buy one sort rather than the other. Can’t put my finger on it. Can anyone here?”

and

Thread IndonesiaOutbreakIV - ANON-YYZ – at 11:38. “For example Thoroughbred (may = Fighting Cock?) is worth a lot more money, and will be hidden from view when the officials come into a village to try to cull all chicken?”

and

Yesterday on this thread, gharris – at 14:11. “Chickens have a number of parasites - nice clear list of them with diagrams from Ohio State University bulletin is found here:- http://tinyurl.com/p48uo […] Other diseases which are spread include the causative agents of avian influenza, salmonella, fowl pox, coccidiosis, botulism and new castle disease…

and

Today - Tom DVM – at 22:56. …It has been discovered that in at least one case H5N1 was found in flies that would have fed on chicken carcasses. […]Therefore, theoretically, these parasites could be a vector of H5N1 but I would caution that there is a threshold concentration of virus required to produce clinical infection and we don’t know whether that threshold could be crossed with the low concentrations in parasites… […]…but having said that H5N1 is a different ‘animal’ from I believe any other virus known to man and therefore the threshold would be much lower for this virus.

anonymous – at 14:31

with these swans, I thought about freyana anserina

stormsailor1981 – at 18:12

it would seem that almost any mammal species can be infected with h5n1. that certainly broadens the vectors of infection by several magnitudes.

could also explain the cluster in march, family ate a pig at the reunion.

gharris – at 23:23

I think I remember that they did tests on the pigs and other mammals in Karo and came up negative?

FrenchieGirl - yes - that is exactly what I was getting at - Niman says that the sequences in (some of the) human cases in Indon dont have the same cleavage site as the avian samples - i.e. there MUST be another vector - my thought is (if it is not H2H??!!) that it might turn out to be this Darkling Beetle - and the comment that Marek’s Disease needs a genetic susceptability is another VERY good reason to suspect the Darkling!!

I wish some epidemiologist/viroligist/DVM or other was taking a close look at it!! Wonder if we could raise the flag about it with some research lab somewhere?? Perhaps some Wikian has a contact at Ohio State as they seem to have a bit of an idea abt what it is about??!!

31 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 21:21

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Page last modified on October 31, 2006, at 09:21 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Canned Goods Expiration Date Comparison

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Canned Goods Expiration Date Comparison

03 September 2006

RobT20at 22:23

Regarding canned goods, I thought it might be interesting to compare the furthest out expiration dates you have of various canned goods.

This is not a contest to see who has the best date, but we can compare types of products to one another (tuna vs. canned beef, chili, etc.), which types of products tend to last longer.

I have many cans (just purchased in the past two weeks) of Costco (Kirkland brand) Atlantic Salmon, “Farm raised”, “PRODUCT OF CHILE”, 7 oz., expiration date Feb 4, 2010.

I also have from Costco, Beach Cliff Sardines in Soybean Oil, 3.75 oz., Jan 1, 2011

31 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 21:21

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Page last modified on October 31, 2006, at 09:21 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Anyone Considering to Move to Another Country When Tshtf

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Anyone Considering to Move to Another Country When Tshtf

21 August 2006

anonymous – at 01:46

looking at the maplecroft index, it seems to make sense to move e.g. from USA to Canada or from UK to Iceland.


http://maps.maplecroft.com/loadmap?template=map&issueID=56

anonymous – at 05:06

Maybe get on a boat and filled it with as much food as possibly and sailed away from the USA maybe i endup on some island (most likely i endup 6 feet deep when i feel asleep or the waves tip the boat over)

Green Mom – at 09:00

I wouldn’t mind going to Iceland. That place has allways intrigued me. Last year I read a big chunk of the Icelandic Sagas. I think I read somewhere that Iceland has the highest Literacy Rate in the world. Plus I like pickeled herring and rye bread. Maybe now would be a good time to book an extended vacation?

I havn’t read any Canadian Sagas.

anonymous – at 09:16

anonymous – at 05:06, you can store the food somewhere on the shore hidden at a remote place and occasionally fetch some of it with your boat.
Green Mom - at 09:00, I wouldn’t base my decision on sagas or eating habits. Striking that UK has one of the least PRI and Iceland is top. I guess, we shouldn’t trust this PRI too much. Looks suspicious to me.

moeb – at 09:59

is constantly debating the merits of a small town in Iowa USA versus a small town at the tip of the baja peninsula in Mexico

Crazy American Lady in the Village – at 11:11

We have been planning a move to rural Spain for years. We feel it’s a better place for our kids and yes…we want to be self sufficient.

Little Kahuna – at 11:13

I recall a reporter interviewing a family that was concerned about a nuclear holocost. They studdied the prospect for years, developed an elaborate criteria amongst which some are listed below:

1). Move to a location that had no strategic or ecconomic value to anyone 2). Owned by a large powerful country so no one would attack it. 3). Far enough away so wind currents would not blow radioactive matterial to the location 4). Little or no military fortifications

After studying the prospects for more than 3 years, they sold everything, packed up, and moved to the Falkland Islands one month before Argentina attacked it.

There is no safe place to hide for this virus. The best place may be amongst you, your family, friends, and close neighbors. Get to know your neighbors…

Janet – at 11:17

Alaska was very hard hit with the Spanish Flu in 1918. Entire “remote” villages were entirely wiped out.

I agree with Little Kahuna…there is no safe place to hide from a virus.

Green Mom – at 11:22

Um-I was joking about moving to Iceland (Though I DO think its a really neat place and I would very much like to visit sometime)

No, we will stay put. We feel relatively safe where we are(relative being the key word here)

anonymous – at 11:27

moeb - at 09:59, that would be interesting to know, whether and how they are planning to isolate there
Crazy..-at 11:11, Spain is also low on that maplecroft list, but I assume that’s for the cities.
Little Kahuna - at 11:13 , some locations are safer than others. Your story is not representative, these are exceptions. There are hundredth of stories where moving helped in 1918. And when none of your friends or neighbors is prepping, should you move ? Where to find better friends and neighbors ?

Ange D – at 11:58

anonymous at 11:27-Little Kahuna has a right to his/her opinion and actually, the point that LIttle Kahuna was trying to make was that researching the right move may be faulty as you cannot know all of the issues that might be involved. THE best place is amongst people who can be of support. Who love and care for you. There will be no safe place to hide in a pandemic.

Fear and distress know no boundaries. I truly feel that the hardest aspect of a pandemic (other than dying) is going to be the absolute, utter fear and distress that many, many people are going to experience. Look at the bird flu victims who have escaped the hospitals in Indonesia. I think fear was the issue? If a pandemic looms, your safety net is going to be your neighbors and family. Stay put (unless you are in or near a megacity . . .now that I am clear on the definition of a megacity-thank you BirdGuano).

Crazy American Lady in the Village – at 15:12

We’re not moving to Spain because of Bird Flu but because we can still afford the prices there, we all speak Spanish and we like the food and the people. Will I feel better isolated in rural Spain as opposed to a suburb of London YES!!!!!! But I’m not letting fear dictate my move, more like my stomach…rioja wine, chorizos, turrones etc :)

The fact is that no where is safe, only as safe as you can make it. I will not let BF run my life no more than I will let Terrorism dictate my life. I prep, because its the SMART thing to do. But I refuse to live in fear.

moeb – at 15:31

if it didn’t sound like a commune I’d suggest we all move to fluwikitopia and start a tribe

anonymous – at 16:00

yeah, and then let’s just outprep the rest of mankind and take control (earlier or later)

Olymom – at 17:05

As a former Army brat, I’ve moved many, many times. There is a delicious period when you know a move is imminent and you fantacize how great it is going to be — at that point, you are listing in your brain all the things you can’t wait to leave (SO LONG SUCKERS!) and you don’t know the hardships/irritations of the new location.

Of course, the new spot has its own challenges — which you have to face with your small family group until new friends/associates/resource people can be identified.

I’d be wary of ANY destination as the BF solution. Well, maybe an invitation to live in Costco central — could emerge 12 months later, pale and weighing 1000 lb. : )

DennisCat 17:16

I wouldn’t think that moving to a new country when TSHTF would help. You would be an outsider, you would not have a garden ready, you would not know where to store things, you would not know who to trust, you would have little or no “support system”, you would be low on the list of friends that others would help, ….you would have to travel at the worst possible time….

In times of the plaque, “outsiders” that may be carrying the plague were not welcomed. Most of this was discussed in terms of “leaving the city” on other threads. The bottom line is you (YOYO) need to have a place planned and prepared before time.

janetn – at 20:16

Im going to another state. My daughter and son in law want me to come to their house. They have an infant and they are concerned about the availability of healthcare. So Grandma/nurse will be SIP at her house, we havent decided if DH is going to stay home or not. My son daughter in law and their 4 kids will be coming to our house, so it will be crowded. He will probably go with me to our daughters house. BTW she is prepped to the hilt too.

22 August 2006

Oremus – at 00:10

Stay put, foreignors are viewed with distrust, maybe unjustifiably, but human nature.

I remember reading where a woman in a village that had chickens die (maybe some other calamity) was viewed as a witch since she was the only one not from that village.

People do crazy things when they are afraid and can’t make sense out of what is happening around them.

Call of the Wild – at 01:41

IMHO there is plenty of time to get to your ideal location, if you start your planning and actions now. If BF is going to get into humans and be pandemic it’s only happening slowly.

anonymous – at 02:51

yes. And I’m wondering why so few people here are considering relocation, when their pandemic fear is indeed as big as expressed in the posts.

Compared with storing food, I’d consider relocation a more important question.But uncomfortable. And it’s dealt with fewer in the threads. Could it be that storing food is some sort of “religion” here which people like and which they are good in and can impress others with, not only motivated by pandemic fear ?

Melanie – at 02:53

Relocate where? “Pandemic” means it is going to be everywhere.

melanie – at 04:57
melanie – at 04:57
melanie – at 04:57
AnnieBat 05:03

Relocate? And how do you get there? Nup, I like my own little home sweet home ;-)

anonymous – at 05:20

but not everywhere with equal strength. See monotreme’s prediction what will happen with the “megacities”. Suppose this proves true and the knowledge of this becomes public, what movements can we expect ? Are people preparing for such movements ? Do officials support the movements with equipment and buses and camps ?


In Europe, where different countries are closer to each other you can easily change from one legislation to another one. This could be important, since the pandemic plans , quarantine plans , Tamiflu stockpiles etc. may be quite different in near regions.

Call of the Wild – at 22:03

A lot of people on this wiki live in cities and or have undesirable neighbours. They already know they would be better moving but, like most, find the thought untenable because of family circumstance, work etc. Getting to the right place should be a permanent move based on preempting the future, not something to do amidst a panic, however caused. We prep because we don’t want to shop during a panic, we plan defence because thieves are a risk. Next step is planning and being ready for what life will be like after a shtf event. For some of us a move to better location is what we want to do anyway, so it all fits :-)

31 August 2006

laura in pa – at 01:20

bump

Call of the Wild – at 01:47

In 5 to 10 years we may have a limited oil supply and the things we are learning now may need to be applied, regardless of whether PF gets going. I’ll be well established in a suitable country, although life is going to be a lot harder.

anonymous – at 02:00

so, oil would be getting even more expensive. So, what ? It already went from $10 to $70 and my life hasn’t changed a lot. When it goes over $200 or such, alternative energies will be efficient.

anonymous – at 02:01

why don’t flubies gather together and form communities with equal-minded ? no panflu-ignorants, everyone’s a prepper, plans for isolation and quarantine, protective wear for essential workers etc.

kc_quiet – at 02:02

I choose to stay where I am already well adapted to the area. I know where to find what I need, I have a history with groups of people, I know which roads wash out in high water. I also have a pretty clear ‘baseline’ feel for the place so I do notice when things are not as they should be. I think most people go/stay where they know and accept the risks of that place- as opposed to moving where their ignorance could get them in trouble.

anonymous – at 02:08

I hope, your little world won’t change when panflu hits to create an entirely new situation where your local experiences could be worthless.

heddiecalifornia – at 02:13

I like where I am, I know the hiding places, the general terrain, and what grows in my backyard. My plan is to direct any mauraders up to the McMansions on the hills.

I also get all cranky and neurotic and overstrung for about 3 months after a move, and I can’t deal with a pandemic and moving and whatever else happens all at the same time.

However, I do entertain the possibility of moving AFTER it settles down a bit — there may be wide swathes of countryside available for subsistance farming. In fact, there might be entire countries available for resettlement.

  Squatting might be possible; then again, maybe the title companies and real estate people will survive in sufficient numbers.  

It’s always fascinated me how entire cities of thousands of people and huge stone buildings could just dissolve away into a jungle, forgotton even by people living a valley or two over, only to be discovered after 1985 by satellite pictures and GPS. I think I am beginning to see just how that may have happened. A high CFR virus, and it’s under the green canopy for entire civilizations —

kc_quiet – at 02:28

Little world? Nope. Change? Yes, it will and that’s the whole point of being where I am. Whichever way it changes, we’ll deal with it. I am in a very adaptable place where we are quite capable of feeding and defending ourselves. A virus is going to go everywhere. If you think you are going to hide from it by moving to a different area, go ahead and good luck to you- you should be where you feel safest.

anonymous – at 04:02

I’m speculating, that a little island might be fine…

DennisCat 09:42

any country/island you could get to when TSHTF would not be safe from the flu. After all if you could get there so could others- that is all it would take to spread BF.

It is like WC Fields said, I would not want to be a memeber of any club that would accept me as a memeber.

anonymous – at 10:43

the trick is, that you go there _before_ all the others want to come

pfwag – at 21:26

Many pacific islands were also very hard hit http://tinyurl.com/nmy9h

With a little luck the pandemic will start in Baghdad.

03 September 2006

Call of the Wild – at 21:46

anonymous, I don’t think the scale of production of any alternative technology is going to prevent massive change to lifestyles. I’ve done a bit of reading about ethanol, bio diesel, hydrogen gas and fuel cells, nuclear, electric power, lpg and cng. They all work but when you consider how we depend on oil tankers, tractors, trucks and every other internal combustion engine we get beaten by volume IMHO. Even if we started now, we’d be too late for a seamless changeover. If BF intervenes all bets are off. I’m going to move to another State next year, which is a bit like moving to another country. The advantage is a much better chance at long term sustainable lifestyle whilst still being close to and part of the modern world for now.

31 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 21:20

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Page last modified on October 31, 2006, at 09:20 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Evolution of Influenza a Viruses

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Evolution of Influenza a Viruses

26 August 2006

anon_22 – at 19:11

This thread is started to discuss questions concerning basic virology, stuff that people don’t understand about its evolution, pandemics, hosts, etc. The basic science is covered in the Science section of the Wiki. But I thought it might be helpful to have a place for questions etc.

This question was asked on the ‘Ask the Moderators’ thread:


Olymom – at 18:51 Like many others, I am reading the news from Indonesia with concern. I am also wondering what happened to the 1918 flu — did it completely die out or is a version of it still in circulation? I know some fragments of the 1918 flu were unearthed from frozen corpses and analyzed, but I haven’t read if that virus is still in some (moderate) form in humans. Is there an answer to this “still in circulation” question on flu wiki? I’m not sure where to even start looking.

Some general direction pointers would be deeply appreciated.

anon_22 – at 19:14

The best single diagram that summarizes the answer for Olymom’s question is from Webster’s 1992 paper Evolution and ecology of influenza A viruses

Evolution of Flu Viruses

Lurker – at 19:15

I will ask my question here that I asked in the Indonesia thread and hopefully will get a few responses. This thread seems more appropriate, anyway. In several places I have read, some experts think there is a small chance that if the BF goes pandemic and lives in the upper respiratory tract, it may lose some of it’s “punch” and not be as lethal. I don’t understand why some think that is even a remote possibility. Didn’t the 1918 pandemic turn into an upper respiratory infection? And it did not seem to lose it’s “punch”. I know no one should count on the BF becoming less lethal as it spreads, but why do some experts believe that is even a small possibility? That did not happen in 1918 (that I know of) and H5N1 is far deadlier.

anon_22 – at 19:26

Lurker,

You are asking whether H5N1 might have a lower CFR if it goes pandemic. That is the billion dollar question for everyone, I guess. There are several hypotheses, and I’m just laying them out for discussion. It doesn’t mean that I believe in them. :-)

Some have suggested that killing most of its victims makes it less likely that a virus will continue to spread in an efficient manner, the rationale being that dead (or very sick) people do not move around and have less chance of infecting many others. Therefore, a virus has to have a lower CFR to go pandemic. My thought on this is that it depends on how low is low, for the virus to continue to spread. And it also depends on what is the infectious period of the virus. In the case of the flu virus, it is highly contagious just before the person has symptoms, and that could be quite a few days before they get sick enough to not move around.

A second hypothesis is that for the virus has to undergo probably a series of mutations in order to gain increased transmissibility. This changes the characteristics and maybe the behavior of the virus, which may result in a reduction in CFR. I think this is possible but we do not have a guarantee that it won’t go the other way, by the same logic!

The only more-or-less reasonable hypothesis that I have heard is from Malik Peiris, who said that if a pandemic virus emerges as a result of a reassortment event between H5N1 and a human strain, then there is some immunity in the human population to the antigens acquired from the human strain, and thus the CFR could be lower as a result.

That being the case, a pandemic virus that arises NOT from this process can have any kind of lethality, IMHO!

Lurker – at 19:34

Anon 22- Thanks. I fully expect this virus to be highly lethal in pandemic form. Does anyone know what the 1918 virus did? Did it become less lethal as it turned H2H? I just don’t think there is ANY chance h5n1 will lose any of it’s punch, as a few experts have put it. I have not read the book on 1918 yet.

anon_22 – at 19:41

Lurker,

I missed your question about the upper respiratory tract. Currently H5N1 still has a preference for receptors that are found more commonly in birds (a2,3) than humans (a2,6). These a2,3 receptors do exist in humans and reside in the deepest parts of the lungs, and so to reach them the virus has to survive all the immune mechanisms from the upper airways eg from mucinous secretions. But this preference for receptors deep in the lungs may also explain the tendency to cause devastating lung complications such as viral pneumonia and ARDS (Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome) which are the major causes of death.

H5N1 currently does not bind as easily to receptors in the upper respiratory tract a2,6, which some suggest account for the difficulty of h2h transmission. If it were to switch preference from a2,3 to a2,6 receptors, then it would be more able to transmit between humans, but it may correspondingly have less preference for inhabiting the deepest parts of the lungs. Therefore, it may become less lethal because of that.

At least that is one stream of thinking, although I suspect it will have to depend on the virus dose needed to produce those devastating lung complications. Since ARDS is thought to be triggered by ‘cytokine storm’, which is more-or-less a cascade-like event, the relationship between virus dose and its ability to trigger ARDS may not be linear. Or, to put it in another way, the ability to trigger ARDS may not be dose-dependent. Or it may. We just don’t know.

Go to this thread for a more detailed discussion of receptor binding preferences.

Lurker – at 19:54

Thanks for explaining all that. I appreciate it. Does anyone know what the BF did in 1918 when it settled in the upper respiratory tract? Or did that happen? Did it lose any punch at all? I am guessing it didn’t.

anon_22 – at 20:03

Lurker – at 19:54 “Thanks for explaining all that. I appreciate it. Does anyone know what the BF did in 1918 when it settled in the upper respiratory tract? Or did that happen? Did it lose any punch at all? I am guessing it didn’t.

I don’t think we have any data to compare when it did or did not settle in the upper respiratory thread. We only know that the second wave was the most lethal, and that after 3 waves, the disease gradually merged into background seasonal flu activity. That was when it probably lost its punch, cos the excess mortalities recorded gave the 3 waves only.

anon_22 – at 20:06

“upper respiratory thread” should read “ upper respiratory track”

You know what kind of tunnel I’ve been down. :-)

NJ. Preppie – at 20:57

There is not a single H1N1 virus. Think of that label as a family tree or race. There were different H1N1 viruses before 1918 and one of them split off and became a human virus. Today we have H1N1 that are descended from the human H!N1 pandemic strain and are less virulent, but there also are H1N1 viruses that descended from the viruses that only infected birds. There are H1N1 swine viruses descended from the 1918 pandemic but only infect pigs now.

   The current human H1N1 is less virulent even if you get infected and have no prior exposure to H1, than the 1918 strain. It just mutated down. The virulence seems to be a different factor than the antigen markers. It flared up and then faded down. It’s an ongoing changing train of evolution.
   We keep expecting a parallel to the 1918 pandemic, but they will likely be different from each other. Just because there are two types of new strains, “reassortment” and “drift”, doesn’t mean all drift mutations will be similiar. The 1918 pandemic did not have bird deaths preceding it or concurrently. The strain killing people was too mammal adapted from the bird version; they don’t see yet that the birds had it (the same sequence). The bird H1N1 is not high pathogenic to birds. The 1918 strain also seems to have started less virulent even before the first wave. In 1917, there were deaths in the European military camps with cyanosis symptoms, and it seemed to build into something worse. It never started with the current CFR that H5N1 has in people and in poultry. Try to not keep thinking it is 1918 pandemic coming again, - we may need to stretch our imagination.
Monotreme – at 21:11

Lurker,

Most viruses become more lethal when they adapt to a new host, not less. The limited evidence suggested that this was true of the 1918 virus. If that happens with H5N1

Lurker – at 21:59

Monotreme- That is what I thought too. That’s why I am confused as to why a few experts say it MIGHT lose some of it’s “lethalness” (is that even a word?) if it starts to settle in the upper respiratory tract.

NJ Preppie- Okay well now I am more concerned. Because if the 1918 BF strain was not killing birds then we are in for something awful when the strain that DOES kill birds hits us. I am trying not to compare the two, but it’s all we’ve got, right? Obviously H5N1 is SOOOOOOOO much worse than the 1918 strain.

NJ. Preppie – at 22:24
  I can’t give a link for this article from The Lancet, entitled “World War I may have allowed the emergence of “Spanish” influenza”, as it is a subscription site.

(The Lancet Infectious Diseases 2002; 2:111–114) Professor JS Oxford a , A Sefton a, R Jackson a, W Innes a, RS Daniels b and NPAS Johnson c

parial excerpts:

 “We present an appraisal of epidemiological and mortality evidence of early outbreaks of respiratory disease in France and the UK in the years 1915 to 1917. Certain of these earlier focal outbreaks—called epidemic bronchitis rather than influenza— occurred during the winter months when influenza was known to be in circulation, and presented with a particular heliotrope cyanosis that was so prominent in the clinical diagnosis in the world pandemic outbreak of 1918–1919 (the Great Pandemic). The outbreaks in army camps at Etaples in France and Aldershot in the UK in 1916–1917 caused very high mortality in 25–35 year olds. Increased deaths from bronchopneumonia and influenza were also recorded in England. We deduce that early focal outbreaks of influenza-like disease occurred in Europe and on the balance of probability the Great Pandemic was not initiated in Spain in 1918 but in another European country in the winter of 1916 or 1917. 

  An almost identical epidemic of purulent bronchitis with bronchopneumonia, with cases showing the peculiar dusky heliotrope cyanosis, and mortality rates of 25–50%, was also described in Aldershot barracks in March 1917.12 The authors of that paper concluded that the unique clinical symptoms together with the pathology delineated a new clinical entity. Furthermore, the same medical team, once they had experienced the 1918–1919 outbreak, noted in retrospect the similarities in pathology to the Aldershot epidemic of 1916.

Abrahams, one of the coauthors of the purulent bronchitis paper,12 once he had experienced the large 1918–1919 outbreak, concluded that both outbreaks had the same causation: “We emphasise our view that in essentials the influenza-pneumococcal purulent bronchitis that we and others described in 1916 and 1917 is fundamentally the same condition as the influenza pneumonia of this present pandemic.16 Therefore, not only are we considering a forgotten pandemic17 but a forgotten and overlooked origin.

The protracted period that we postulate for the emergence of the Great Pandemic of 1918, almost 2 years, could be explained by the absence of air travel and the effects of restricted travel during the Great War. The new mutant could have maintained itself in small civilian and military outbreaks while increasing virulence in a stepwise manner, similar to virus adaptation in animal models where sometimes hundreds of passages are needed to increase virulence of a pneumotropic strain.”

Monotreme – at 22:55

Lurker – at 21:59

That’s why I am confused as to why a few experts say it MIGHT lose some of it’s “lethalness” (is that even a word?) if it starts to settle in the upper respiratory tract.

It is possible that H5N1 might decrease in lethalness when it goes pandemic, no-one can say for sure. However, the CDC and the WHO are saying it will definitely drop from a lethality of over 50% to less than 3%. And they are telling governments to make their plans based on that assumption. If brains were dynamite, the epidemiologists at the WHO and CDC wouldn’t have enough to blow their noses.

Obviously H5N1 is SOOOOOOOO much worse than the 1918 strain.

This is what I think, too.

Lurker – at 23:01

Monotreme-

Why do they feel it will drop to less than 3%? That would be a very drastic drop and I just don’t see that happening.

Olymom – at 23:09

Thanks all — I got what I needed to know — H5N1 may be around for the next thousands of years but watch the first step as it’s likely to be a doozy.

Monotreme – at 23:13

Lurker – at 23:01

Why do they feel it will drop to less than 3%? That would be a very drastic drop and I just don’t see that happening.

I don’t think they have a good reason. Mostly, they just say no flu virus has ever been worse than 1918, so, therefore, no flu virus can be worse than 1918. Therefore, H5N1 must drop it’s kill rate when it goes pandemic. Dumb, dumb, dumb.

Lurker – at 23:32

Yes, and I had no idea the 1918 strain was NOT killing birds. If it was mild in birds but still killed humans, then imagine what H5N1 could do? Wow, I just got chills. Not good.

30 August 2006

NJ. Preppie – at 20:28

I don’t like starting new threads so I’m posting this article here. The Nipah virus killed a 111 people in Malaysia with a 48% CFR. There have been three more cluster outbreaks more recently in Bangladesh.

Discover Sept.2006

  Title:   
 “Natural Selections: The Potential Pandemic You’ve Never Heard Of”

- How the connections between pigs, bats, and people could threaten your health.

 “The history of this disease, which first struck Malaysia in 1999, offers a cautionary tale of how a potential pandemic was averted. Before SARS, before worries about widespread avian flu, the Nipah virus infected humans with surprising ease. Swift action by Malaysian and international public-health authorities, including the Centers for Disease Control, kept the Nipah outbreak under control for several years. But the disease is having a disturbing second act in Bangladesh….

As suspected, the fruit bats in the region were the only wildlife to test positive for the virus, making them the pathogen’s most likely reservoir….

The circumstances of the Nipah outbreak suggest that the virus needs a large pig population to maintain itself long enough to have a chance of spreading to humans. The farm on which the Nipah virus emerged had over 30,000 pigs, and the branches of fruit trees hung over the walls of their pens, giving bats and pigs plenty of opportunity to come into close contact…

More ominously, at least six of the victims developed acute respiratory distress syndrome, a condition in which fluid builds up in the lungs and prevents normal breathing. These symptoms had not been a feature of the disease in humans before. ..

The dense populations of humans and flying foxes in a country like Bangladesh may provide the conditions under which the Nipah virus will finally acquire the ability to explode into a pandemic. ..

So while avian flu continues to make headlines, Nipah is also a virus to watch.”

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Additional information on emerging diseaese from bats-

 Bats have been the reservior behing Ebola, Marburg, Sars. One species of bats in China tested 71% positive for Sars antibodies. The bats transmitted Sars to the civet cats, and Ebola to primates, which then was transmitted to humans eating bush meat. Other viruses have been transmitted to people through farm animals. Roosting barn bats transmitted Hendra virus to race horses, killing 13 horses and two human trainers in Australia. Another incident, Hendra killed 2 horses and one farmer.

A big consideration is that human influenza -H3N2- has been found in bats!!! That’s what this news has to do with H5N1. Can bats share a virus from a bird and allow it to acquire mammalian adaptations passing through its large colony nesting sites? There appears to be not so much a species barrier between bats and humans as a mammalian bridge. Bats descend from a common shrew ancestor that rodents and primates have descended from too.

heddiecalifornia – at 23:47
  Would the fact that monkeys (primates), bats, and birds all hang out in trees contribute to the fact that they may be transferring virus back and forth, allowing for even more mixing and matching of RNA? 
  Likewise, omnivorous pigs root under trees, consuming whatever has fallen out of the branches — dead bats, dead birds, and any other droppings of partially eaten fruit or previously eaten fruit?  Chickens and ducks also forage under trees for fruit seeds and so forth, some of which may have been passed through infected bats, birds, and monkeys. 
   The moisture of trees, and the shaded ground underneath, and the moist fruits and droppings would all be reservoirs of virus that could maintain viability for some time.   In addition, one pig could pick up remnants of a hundred or more separate tree living animals and their droppings in rooting around under just one tree.  So the odds of some kinds of mixtures of virus would be incredibly high.   Under certain temperatures and moisture conditions, the circulation of viruses through all these animals would be constant.  So the odds of some kinds of mixtures of virus would be incredibly high. 
    In the event of a drought, natural disaster of some sort, great change in natural conditions or forage shortages, the  forced changes in preferred diets may cause increase and decrease of the animal populations and changes in virus circulation allowing even more novel combinations.  
    So, if one virus is emerging easily, so many more are probably in the crucible to come out in quick succession.
      Oh, I hope we don’t burn out on Influenza — there’s probably more waiting!

31 August 2006

anonymous – at 00:10

the 1918 (2nd wave) virus did become less lethal as the pandemic was going. I guess, the mortality halfed each 2 or 3 months. H5N1 could be different - the transmission is not (yet) as with normal flu. H5N1 can survive longer in the surroundings, can survive in blood, can travel through the lymph-system.

1918 H5N1 is still there. It gave 5 genes to 1957 H2N2 and 6 genes to 1968 H3N2, so our normal flu (H3N2) still has 5 genes from 1918. Although a lot of point mutations occurred. But you can clearly see how our PB2,PA,NP,M,NS are similar to the 1918 virus while PB1,HA,NA are more different. One chance for H5N1 to acquire better transmissability is to reassort with H3N2 or H1N1 , viruses who already “know” how to go pandemic. When H5N1 could keep its HA (and to a lesser grade its NA) then we would have no immunity. But with the other genes it might loose its virulence, simply because H3N2 and H1N1 are not so virulent. When OTOH. H5N1 contributes genes other than HA, then we might have some immunity. And then there is also the possibility that H5N1 doesn’t have to reassort to go pandemic.

NJ. Preppie – at 11:09

Here’s an article by Taubenberger as a reference for the previous discussion about the source of the 1918. Notice the difference in how H1N1 evolved compared to the current H5N1. This is not an exact repeat. CDC/Taubengerger

title- “1918 Influenza: the Mother of All Pandemics”

Jeffery K. Taubenberger* and David M. Morens†

 “…On the contrary, the 1918 virus appears to be an avianlike influenza virus derived in toto from an unknown source (17,19), as its 8 genome segments are substantially different from contemporary avian influenza genes. Influenza virus gene sequences from a number of fixed specimens of wild birds collected circa 1918 show little difference from avian viruses isolated today, indicating that avian viruses likely undergo little antigenic change in their natural hosts even over long periods (24,25)…

Because the 1918 gene segments have more synonymous changes from known sequences of wild bird strains than expected, they are unlikely to have emerged directly from an avian influenza virus similar to those that have been sequenced so far…

At the same time, the 1918 sequences have too few amino acid differences from those of wild-bird strains to have spent many years adapting only in a human or swine intermediate host. One possible explanation is that these unusual gene segments were acquired from a reservoir of influenza virus that has not yet been identified or sampled. All of these findings beg the question: where did the 1918 virus come from?

Like the 1918 virus, H5N1 is an avian virus (39), though a distantly related one. The evolutionary path that led to pandemic emergence in 1918 is entirely unknown, but it appears to be different in many respects from the current situation with H5N1. There are no historical data, either in 1918 or in any other pandemic, for establishing that a pandemic “precursor” virus caused a highly pathogenic outbreak in domestic poultry, and no highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus, including H5N1 and a number of others, has ever been known to cause a major human epidemic, let alone a pandemic…

Even with modern antiviral and antibacterial drugs, vaccines, and prevention knowledge, the return of a pandemic virus equivalent in pathogenicity to the virus of 1918 would likely kill >100 million people worldwide. A pandemic virus with the (alleged) pathogenic potential of some recent H5N1 outbreaks could cause substantially more deaths.”

03 September 2006

BUMP – at 07:01
BUMP – at 19:41
anon_22 – at 21:00

This is cross-posted from the News Thread

InKy ¨C at 15:25

Re Tom DVM at 11:00 - Thanks. It seems the alternative to asking dumb questions is remaining ignorant, so I¡¯ve asked quite a few in my lifetime ;¡ú. Is it the case that strains of endemic low-path H5N1 simply mutated in Southeast Asia to become the high-path H5N1 we are now worried about? I had the impression that H5N1 was something new altogether, so word of a ¡°low path¡± virus of the same name that¡¯s been around for years requires that I refine my understanding.

You probably know this already but just in case and for lurkers who don’t :-)

The difference between LP and HP is in the presence of a unique configuration of the HA protein (chain of basic amino acids at the cleavage site where the protein splits into 2 before viral replication can occur) that, for unknown reasons, the virus acquires when infecting domestic chickens, causes a severe systemic disease resulting in close to 100% death. The origin of the HP H5N1 in Asia is thought to be from reassortment with possibly H9N2 or other unknown avian subtypes, but the acquisition of that cleavage site is a characteristic of only H5 and H7 subtypes. Since 1997, different strains of HP H5N1 have arisen from the same ‘parent’ strain in Guangdong in southern China. We don’t know exactly why but it seems that this is something that happens uniquely in that part of the world, and is still continuing.

Every case is a test tube and H5N1 may as well be a mad scientist feverishly at work, so I wasn¡¯t really thinking that intentional exposure would be a good idea, just wondering if these viruses are similar enough that the low-path strain would produce an immune response to any degree whatsoever.

Well, I don’t think we know the answer to that, except maybe to say that since LP H5N1 does not infect humans, you can’t really deliberately acquire immunity that way. Also, when they try to develop vaccines, they found that the H5N1 virus, for unknown reasons, is not very immunogenic, and there is very little cross-immunity between different clades, such that the WHO has had to provide different virus seed samples for vaccine manufacturers. This probably tells us that being infected with any one clade of HP H5N1 does not necessarily produce immunity anyway, let alone LP H5N1.

Somehow I don¡¯t think this is the case. There must have been low-path strains of H5N1 in Indonesia, Thailand, China and Vietnam if there have been cases in Maryland, Pennsylvania, and who knows where else, going back 20 years or more, before the high-path strain emerged. High-path H5N1 is high-path precisely because it trumps resistance. Have I answered my own question?

Yes, I think you have. :-)

31 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 21:20

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Why People Wont Prep How to Get Round That

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Why People Wont Prep How to Get Round That

31 August 2006

anon_22 – at 16:51

How many of us have tried to talk to people, friends who trust you, and tried to convince them of the necessity to pay attention to this pandemic issue, and failed?

I just had dinner with a couple who have been our friends for more than 20 years, the kind of friendship where we could appoint each other as guardians of our kids in our wills if we die. Wonderful intelligent people. Medics, both of them. They understand everything that I say, they have lived through SARS (as HCWs, remember), they have the money to prep, they are responsible parents, they make sure their kids got a good education, took their vitamins, teeth straightened out by expensive orthodontics, got told the facts of life, everything, the works.

But I’ve been telling them about this for at least 6 months, and they have done nothing.

Why is that?

This is by no means a unique experience. I can say most of my friends, mostly medical folks, are not doing anything about it. They don’t need me to explain ARDS, they see it in hospitals. They know the CFR for those in their kids’ age range. But they do nothing.

They would make sure everybody wear seatbelts, they buy insurance for everything you can think of. But they don’t buy preps as insurance against a pandemic.

I have thought long and hard about this, and I have a theory.

Imagine you are a man from Mars, and you’ve never seen or tasted a lemon before. What is it that I can say or how is it that I can describe the experience of sucking on a lemon for you to really get it? Some of you may have just experienced some actual sensations in your mouth when you read about ‘sucking on a lemon’. Even if you didn’t, you can imagine what the sensation would be like. In fact, you can make youself feel it. It is possible to turn on that special sensation, to ‘light it up’, so to speak.

But if you’ve never ever experienced anything like it, whatever I say, it is going to be very hard to get that sensation.

This ‘lighting up’, is the key. It is a biological, a neurological phenomenon. It is not anything abstract or ethereal.

If something is close enough to someone’s experience, even if they have never experienced it, like losing a loved one in a car crash, they are still able to imagine what it might be like for that to happen. But if it is something so extraordinary, something that is so far removed from their experience, then no matter how much they understand it rationally, it can get very hard for them to get ‘lit up’ about it. This ability to imagine, to try on, the unimaginable, does not come easily to everyone. Some of us have it, most people don’t.

This ability to get ‘lit up’, is also a biological, neurological event. The advent of functional MRI scans have in recent years revealed that our thoughts, aspirations, phobias, motivations, are not just abstract psychological phenomena. They are also measurable biological events!

What’s more, our biology is not static. It is affected by our history and our life experiences. For example, patients of depression may show specific changes on the scans. People who have normal scans, then experience traumatic life events that cause them to go into (secondary) depression, may then develop the same abnormal patterns that they didn’t have before, and these patterns may disappear over time as the person gets better. But if they experience repeated trauma, the depression can persist beyond the trauma and become permanent . When this happens, scans may correspondingly show persistent abnormality. (best reference: ‘Shadow syndromes’ by John Ratey) Our life experiences are literally imprinted in our neurology.

People get worried about losing someone in a car crash because they have experienced enough of life to know what it might be like to lose someone, and they’ve got the neurological ‘experience’ imprinted, even if it is second hand, sufficiently so that if they think about it, they will get ‘lit up’ sufficiently which kicks them into taking action, eg buying a safer car.

But if they’ve never ever had that imprinting, of the scenarios that we are talking about, it gets very hard for the lighting up to happen sufficiently for them to take action.


So what does it take for people to get off their butts? Some people might think if we make it horrible enough, they will take action.

My hypothesis is that we might need to make it just horrible enough (ie within the range of their life experiences so that their neurology can get lit up) for them to take action, but not so horrible that there is nothing in their life experiences to give that prior imprinting necessary for the lighting up to occur.

So if I were to say, it’s going to be dead bodies everywhere, they won’t know how to fill in the blanks, to create the kind of representation in their heads that lead to rational action. So they just blank out and do nothing.

But if I were to say, there’s going to be a pandemic. A lot of people might die. But scientists are telling us that if we all co-operate and keep away from people as much as possible, then there is a chance of reducing the deathrate and the impact. To do that, the government might decide to tell everyone to stay home for a while, at least until they get things under control, and shops might close. So you need to have enough food and essentials at home so you can stay in if necessary. It’s just the same as preparing for a hurricane, except maybe for a little bit longer.

Now you might say, why not then tell them to prep for 3 months? Why 2 weeks? Surely that’s not enough.

Yes, 2 weeks is not enough. But, again going back to the neurology, 2 weeks is just about the limit of what most people’s shopping experiences go. How many of us have found it really hard to figure out what 3 months’ of food mean?

Plus 2 weeks is do-able. If you give a large group of people a task that is too difficult, you will lose a large percentage right off the bat. Any book on goal setting will tell you that a goal that is too difficult to achieve is a goal that is too big. You need to break it down into smaller ones. That’s what most people need.

But, and here’s another key, the act of going out to shop for 2 weeks’ worth of food etc, will be a new neurological experience. It will start another process of imprinting. The mind starts getting used to the idea. Then getting people to do more preps becomes easier.

And getting them to ask the right questions also becomes easier. This is another important point, when someone is asking the question, they are lit up. They are on the right page. That is when your message is most likely to be effective.

The best time to sell someone an idea is when they are asking, NOT when you are pushing.

JV – at 17:21

Anon_22 -

I think you are exactly right re neurological experiences.

1. Most adults today have never experienced this kind of catastrophic scenario.

2. With all of the advanced science and technology we now have, most people think nothing like this could possibly happen.

3. Even if someting terrible happens, most people believe that our government will somehow save us.

This kind of disaster is too enormous for people to “get their minds around.”

I think the only way that governments can handle this topic is to discuss it in increments with their citizens. First, they need to get people’s attention. In the US, perhaps the Surgeon General needs to have some prime time air time. He could start by explaining we always need to be prepared, and discuss why we should all have 2 - 3 weeks worth of food and water on hand. After airing that a few times, over a couple of weeks, then he could come back and state that in light of X, Y, and Z, we should really consider having 2 months worth of food and water on hand. And then, he could take it further…

How to do this is a study of psychology.

As Anon_22 said, my family and friends just can’t get this. They are intelligent people, but they have no life experience with this. There is a wall there that I can’t break through. Nobody in the government is getting people’s attention and giving them a serious warning. The Surgeon General needs to go on TV and look them in the eye (make a connection, and get their attention), and tell them, “This is a concern, and this is what you need to do now.”

OKbirdwatcherat 17:34

I got “lit up” regarding pandemic flu in early April. I still don’t really know why. I had paid no attention to it before and had never prepared for any kind of emergency/crisis. Something intuitive it seems.

“The best time to sell someone an idea is when they are asking, NOT when you are pushing.”

That’s why I’m not talking to family/friends - yet. I know when I’m wasting my time. When the situation becomes more critical, I hope they’ll be asking:)

LauraBat 17:54

I totally agree anon - I tried to get familes, friends, etc. to prep, but only a few were remotely interested in what I had to say and the vast majority ignored the packet of information I gave them - maybe it was too much information (but it really was pretty USA TOday-like), maybe they’ve decided the risk isn’t there, there will be a miracle vaccine, can’t affod it, too many things on their plate, when things “settle down” with kids, work, it’s a media/gov’t conspiracy, etc. Heard it all.

Funny that you say “when they are asking.” When I was photo copying all the stuff for aforementioned friends and relatives, the guy at the copy center appologized profusely about reading my stuff but had lots on questions. We talked a long time about it, he made more copies for his loved ones, and is now an avid prepper. Strike when the poker is hot, otherwise let it simmer in the fire longer.

Kathy in FL – at 18:09

Even when things are well within the range of someone’s experience you are still going to run into the “it can’t happen to me or mine” syndrome. People die in droves from it around the world every day.

You cannot force someone else to take any subject or act seriously. Our court system is full of people that ride the revolving door of “justice” who, despite intervention(s) and education(s)that you would think that would stop them at some point from their dangerous behaviors.

Eventually for some it will be too late.

I tell people what I can. I try and model an appropriate lifestyle with common sense life choices. But at a certain point I have to allow the other party to assume the responsibility for their action/inaction.

I can’t take the credit for another’s person’s preparation. I can’t take the blame for them if they don’t.

Most people have been exposed to the same initial stimuli for preparation that all of us on the wiki have. Why some of us “light up” and some don’t I haven’t a clue. Why some Floridians prepare for a hurricane and some don’t is just as example … afterall of us have seen and/or experienced the ravages of weather-related catastrophes. And TPTB are in our faces quite regularly about the need to prep.

Socio-economic reasons do not explain it all. And some people will never ask.

This might reach some folks, but there will still be a large number that won’t ever “light up” over the need to prepare … whether its for pandemic or some other potential castrophic event in their lives.

seacoast – at 18:18

Okbirdwatcher, I think you are follow your intuition. I really believe there are many of us who are getting involved because there is something deep inside telling them to do so. I have been following this for a long time, but I can’t honestly say why that is true. I have never bothered with other disaster stuff and this is out of the ordinary for me. I have a full life and have projects up the ying yang to do and paintings in me that are whailing to get out… But, I am a reader, I read newspapers cover to cover and I remember stuff, never the stuff that I am suppose to remember, alas, but SARS and BF caught my attention in a big way. I am a humanitarian and when people are facing global destruction, that gets my attention.

I would like nothing more than to go back to my little world where I teach and interact with children, paint pictures and create a utopia for myself and my family but I believe the shit is going to hit the fan and we have to be awake and functioning with our brains clear and our logic cleaned of the cobwebs of inactivity. All of us have to be like Eccles, we have to use our brains and figure out how to do things we never thought we could do or have never done before.

Anon_22 - Thank You! That is a wonderful description and analogy of what is happening to our freinds, family and collegues. That has helped me understand wyh I can’t reach my dear friend, whom I love with all my heart, and convinve her to prepare and save her kids and husband. These are people that should be here to rebuild if we have to do that, good people that give back to society, that have instilled that concept of community in their children…yet they do not prepare. My friend is focused on Mad Cow and her 16 year old son has posters on his wall of HAMBURGERS because they are not allowed to eat them… Mad Cow will not wipe out her family, BF could with a little more time.

spok – at 18:30

We live in too stable of an environment for people to imagine anything else.

If you could bring down the grid for one week, right now, it could help people to realize that other things could happen too. Short of that, people can’t imagine being without power and a pandemic is even harder to imagine.

Maybe I could cut the power to my house for one week to incourage my wife to help me prep more :)

Average Concerned Mom – at 18:48

to prep for this pandemic I believe most people need info from the following:

an authority:

People need to hear from someone they consider to be an authority — a medical professional, a newspaper article in a paper they respect, their employer, or even a letter written to them from their utility company, their kids school or college, etc — something other than a friend telling them “a pandemic could be quite serious and you may very much wish to stay at home for a while.”

a story:

this is the “lit up” part anon 22 talked about. People need to have some idea of what it is like to live through an epidemic — if they have read stories about 1918 everything will resonate much more, but even stories, movies, or personal testimony of what it was like to live through summers of polio epidemics will be a big help.

a sense of urgency

People need some idea that this could happen sooner rather than later, to give them a bit of fear, even to put it all together.

D*(@! I have no more time; there’s so much I want to add but never have a second to myself these days.

Average Concerned Mom – at 18:55

To add to the above “sense of urgency”:

“chatter” from others in the area adds to the sense of urgency. If it is somehting people around you are talking about and aware of, it seems more pertinent to your life. If no one is talking about a pandemic, it seems less urgent. When it becomes water cooler conversation, it will seem more urgent.

anon_22 – at 19:42

On the subject of ‘stories’, the Katrina story is a good one to use to light them up about not waiting for the cavalry to arrive, and the importance of thinking the unthinkable.

Make sure you tell folks how the vast majority of people in New Orleans survived, as will the vast majority of people in a pandemic. A lot of people just say, “Oh well, we’ll all just die.” You need to get graphic about them NOT dying but having to live through something like Katrina.


I use another story, the story of SARS. Most people would have seen at least some TV footage of cities with everybody wearing masks, etc. I use Hong Kong and not anywhere else because it is well recognized as an advanced economy and also because there was community spread causing widespread panic.

I say to people that SARS killed 300 people in Hong Kong and brought the whole place to a standstill. And then I use a very mild scenario of 25% clinical attack rate and 2% CFR, which for a population of 7M will translate to 35,000 dead, in the same time frame of the SARS outbreak. This 100-folk increase in impact is something that helps to focus people’s attention.

And then of course I say well the current CFR is 55%.

Doesn’t always work, but you can watch their faces change.

KimTat 19:42

I agree to all of the above. Very well thought out and written Anon_22

I have gotten a few people to prepare, but not the ones I love the most. My sister’s husband is in Iraq right now, she is concerned more about terrorists, but she is still not preparing.

I never prepared for any disasters before either, but for some reason March was my wake up call.

I’m gonna die eventually—before, during or after a pandemic but I sure as heck will go out fighting to live.

How is it that I picked up on the threat and my family members who have had similar life experiances haven’t and refuse to even have the topic brought up? That confuses me.

JV – at 20:04

KimT - at 19:42

“How is it that I picked up on the threat and my family members who have had similar life experiances haven’t and refuse to even have the topic brought up? That confuses me.”

I have wondered the same thing.

I have never lived through a disastrous senario like a pandemic, and neither have my family or friends. I do understand medicine better than my friends, but I have also tried to explain this to them.

I think this difference in some “getting it” and prepping, and others not (even with the same life experiences) may be the possibilty of vision (again maybe different neurologial pathways present). Maybe it relates to creativity. I just don’t know. This is just a notion I have.

So many people are so concrete. They just say, “The virus is in the birds, and in another part of the world.” They indicate that our government does not seem worried, so why should they. They don’t allow themselves to imagine. They just go with the simple facts of what they are told (by TPTB)is happening today.

So, for those with no vision, perhaps the following is all their minds allow:

1. I am told that the virus is in the birds in other countries far away.

2. My government does not seem alarmed.

Therefore,

3. I will do nothing now because to do otherwise it will cost time and money to prepare, and that apparently is not necessary.

anon_22 – at 20:10

I also think women are better at this, mothers even more so.

I’m not being sexist, but how many times have women complain about husbands who don’t do anything in the house unless specifically told to. Reason? They don’t realise things need doing.

I think women especially mothers are constantly scanning the horizon for things that might happen or consequences of certain things not happening, eg dishes not washed, trash not taken out, coins left around for toddlers to swallow, schoolbags not packed the night before….

LA Escapee – at 20:20

I have a number of elderly relatives that have lived through some major world events such as the Depression, WWII, etc., but when it comes down to their personal life experiences - no major natural disasters, no serious illnesses, no premature or violent family deaths, never had to think for themselves during an emergency, etc. They’ve always been surrounded by large support groups of friends and family, always had enough money and lived in nice houses (since WWII, anyway),lived the good life and never realized it.

These guys are pretty helpless when it comes to any kind of personal adversity, because they haven’t had any. They really just can’t imagine it could happen to *them* - up til now it’s always been “the other guy.”

On the other hand, I’ve *been* the other guy. That’s probably why I’m here. If you went through the list of FluWickians, how many are people who have actually lived through some traumatic event, and want to put themselves in the best possible position to avoid another one?

lady biker – at 20:22

maybe what we have is like a seventh sense, it’s like having a strong survival gene. it’s a little voice inside telling us to get busy . I think it’s like when we know a winter is coming and we need to get food and more fuel to heat and cook by or get warmer clothes to wear. some people don’t think like that. something needs to trigger most people anymore and sometimes that doesn’t work either. Maybe it’s been bred out of people I don’t know. I do know lots of people like me that sense something is on the horizon but don’t know exactly what , but just get ready for it.

Science Teacher – at 20:33

What you said, lady biker, reminds me of the last scene in the first Terminator movie. Sarah Connor (Linda Hamilton) is standing looking across a vast dessert as she fills her car with gas. Dark clouds threaten on the far away horizon; a new storm is gathering.

Sometimes I feel like that woman and think of her as the pandemic clouds draw closer.

Chesapeake – at 20:34

I call it “Nesting”

LA Escapee – at 20:40

lady biker, boy do I agree with you. Those of us that pay attention to our hunches just “feel something” isn’t right. When you say that you “sense something is on the horizon,” that is exactly how I feel.

Maybe those of us that have somebody to protect besides ourselves, or already know what it’s like to be in danger or take a big loss, just listen more carefully to the “survival genes” we have.

lady biker – at 21:16

LA Escapee , it’s like something that I read in a book once, that said, SOMETHING WICKED THIS WAY COMES. Like something is looking for me, can it see me yet? The big ugly is out there is some way, shape, or form. just gotta be ready for what ever. I honestly do believe it’s a seventh sense, just stronger in some people than in others.

Jewelry spam – at 21:27

Science Teacher – at 20:33

That scene is the one of the most haunting ones I have ever watched—and that feeling is with me all of the time now (not that I look anything like Linda Hamilton—I wish!!:-)

The creeping sense of menace I feel now is far more threatening than the fears of nuclear war for me, because, in the end, all politics are negotiable—even if it ends up with Americans speaking Russian or wearing robes and burkhas. This disease is like a shark; emotionless, implacable, unmoveable, nonnegotiable.

Jefiner – at 21:28

sorry, that was me . . .

shadddup – at 21:29

To me, there are 2 kinds of ‘preppers’…those that prepare for an event, and those that live a prep lifestyle.

I’ve seen over and over and over again a great majority of people who are vulnerable to LIFE, with all it’s ups and downs. While some are better able to ride the waves of natural ups and downs, too many get caught with their pants down. Time magazine last week had an article about why people don’t prepare…it was a very thought provoking article. In it, it said in part:

“In fact, 91% of Americans live in places at a moderate-to-high risk of earthquakes, volcanoes, tornadoes, wildfires, hurricanes, flooding, high-wind damage or terrorism, according to an estimate calculated for TIME by the Hazards and Vulnerability Research Institute at the University of South Carolina.”

It went on to give their reason why the majority don’t prepare ahead of time:

“There are four stages of denial,” says Eric Holdeman, director of emergency management for Seattle’s King County, which faces a significant earthquake threat. “One is, it won’t happen. Two is, if it does happen, it won’t happen to me. Three: if it does happen to me, it won’t be that bad. And four: if it happens to me and it’s bad, there’s nothing I can do to stop it anyway.”

That’s a pretty sad state of affairs if you ask me. I have no answers as to how to convince others that scoff at me. I live a prep lifestyle and have for many years…just as others can’t comprehend why I DO, I can’t comprehend why they DON’T. I know some who have had similar, albeit different experiences in dealing with tragedies or potential threats in life and each person responds uniquely.

I don’t know much about those that prep in response to a potential event, so I can’t really comment on that. I’m not LDS or any other generally known sect that teaches a prep lifestyle, it’s just a burden I’ve had for a long, long time and a choice that I’ve made that has served me well. I can teach others that wanna know, what I know…I can warn others that could care less and I can stand alone when others view me as if I wear a tin foil hat, it matters not to me.

Anyway, enough musings…here’s the Time article in its entirety if you care to read it:

http://tinyurl.com/zoxt4

Shad.

01 September 2006

mosaic – at 00:17

I think part of the problem is that the people in charge who are supposed to be warning people have not ‘lit-up’ themselves. Even though its their job, how can they be enthusiatic about something they themselves cant get their own minds around?

I first heard about H5N1 several years ago on 60 minutes (tv news mag. show). In my mind I still can see the chickens and pigs in their pens in some Asian country, and adjacent trees with birds in them. They talked of a virus in the birds, and a possible pandemic. What they said frightened me. Then I forgot all about it till last fall, and something was on the news, and I remembered. I also thought of Katrina and the tsunami, and realized major bad things can indeed happen. Without knowing anything more, I went to the store and bought some extra food because it just seemed prudent. I had yet to hear the word ‘prep’.

The very next day, out of the blue, a doc friend of mine from a large family of doctors called and warned me about a possible pandemic, and told me to prepare for 3 months. Then I came on the computer, found fluwiki, eventually Curevents, and was off to the races.

seacoast – at 11:25

Bump

History Lover – at 11:35

I agree that when people believe the news about a panedemic comes from an authority figure, as opposed to an ordinary person such as ourselves, they are more likely to listen. That’s why I log on to Flu Wiki every day now and go first to the news threads. When I see a story from a doctor or a researcher or an institution warning about the possibility of a pandemic and the need to prepare for it, I copy it and e-mail it to my husband and my cousin who both work in health institutions and to anyone else I think will listen. I do believe I’ve had some impact, because my husband is more involved with prepping, and he has forwarded some of the articles to administrators in his institution. He’s also encouraged me to attend any local public meetings about BF and to forward the e-mails to our national congressman. My cousin has also been responsive by prepping more. I think I just need more e-mail addresses.

Average Concerned Mom – at 13:28

From Mosaic at 00:17

“The very next day, out of the blue, a doc friend of mine from a large family of doctors called and warned me about a possible pandemic, and told me to prepare for 3 months. Then I came on the computer, found fluwiki, eventually Curevents, and was off to the races.”

In my opinion, this is where the news needs to come from to be believed by the majority of people. MDs and others in the medical community, but most of all, family doctors and internists.

Poppy – at 15:30

I have found from talking to people that those who seem to be the least concerned fall into certain Catagories.

1) They are affluent enough and their parents were affluent enough that they have never wanted for anything. They could always get whatever they needed when the needed it.

2) They have not lost, or come close to losing, a friend or loved one from a common curable illness, like influenza.

3) They do not believe that the stores would ever be in a situation where they might not be able to get deliveries for weeks or perhaps months. They believe they would always be able to go out and purchase what they need because they have not ever dealt with a pandemic, hurricane, eartquake or other disaster and seen empty store shelves for themselves.

Many of them are knowledgeable people, with common sense and intellgence. They simply cannot relate to the possiblities a pandemic can cause because they do not have the life experience.

Lurker Mom – at 15:51

ACM at 13:28

Yes, I agree with you that people will potentially prep more if the warning comes from an MD. However, just yesterday I was once again trying to get a friend to prep. And she said that her friend, an ER DOCTOR IN TAMPA, has told her repeatedly that the bird flu is overhyped, but if it does happen he will call in an order of Tamiflu for her and her kids. She said he has assured her that Tamiflu will work. She flat out said to me she believes him over me, because, after all, he is the doctor.

Blue – at 15:57
Blue – at 16:04
 A fourth group would be the one’s who don’t believe anything can be done..ie find it too overwhelming- I’m finding that in myself- but I choose to try and find logical solution’s.
 (I just wonder: but that’s good …I’m just a bit scared I s’pose and can’t think straight…but I s’pose we’re all the same.)
 Or does that describe all of them
Kathy in FL – at 16:06

Being a doctor only gives a degree to treat people … it doesn’t always guarantee farsightedness. Just as many doctors have a hard time imagining trying to do their job without everything they are used to having, much less how the remainder of society would function.

The fact that he said he would just “call in” an order of Tamiflu makes me truly suspect. I’m in Tampa, and just “calling in” a pharmaceutical order is frowned upon because of all of the abuse. Most pharmacies won’t even fill these orders before a person shows up with a script as well. It is also frowned upon by most insurance companies, though I’m sure it does happen.

And doctors aren’t always aware of medicinal shortages. Several times in my life I’ve had to wait while the pharmacy calls the doctor’s office to apprise them that a medicine they prescribed is on backorder, out-of-stock, what have you. If the doctor will script an alternative medicine then fine … however, a lot of times they can’t or won’t so I either have to take the script to go to another pharmacy hoping they have it or wait for the medication to come in.

In the event of a pandemic which requires blanketing of populations with tamiflu, I suspect that a doctor’s scrip will not be worth a hill of beans. You will either receive your dosage from TPTB because you are in said area to be blanketed … or you are SOL. <shrug> There will be shortages and everything else.

Whoever the doctor is that she is speaking to either doesn’t know his hat from a hole in the ground, being irresponsible, or just blowing her off with platitudes … all of which occurs on a daily basis in this medically busy metropolitan area.

Bluebonnet – at 16:58

Sounds to me like magical thinking and pure laziness. Magical thinking promises easy answers, easy victories, easy achievement of our goals with little effort and work. But this is, and always was, a childish dream. Through cooperating with each other and studying the world around us, we can learn to better control our circumstances and improve our lives, but such improvement will always take labor and work.

The lure of easy answers is an illusion; there are answers, but they are difficult to find and always were. Yet that does not make them worth any less. On the contrary, it makes them even more precious, and should increase our appreciation for what progress we have brought about and our resolve to make further progress in the future.

Lots of folks have a hard time putting away “childish things” as they mature and take on adult responsibilites. Preparing oneself and one’s family for whatever evil this way comes takes hard work, determination and maturity to recognize that this is what adults do.

Prepping Gal – at 18:33

I’ve got a relative that maintains that an individual who has confidence in their ability (and assumes they are more capable than the average person) can lead a positive life and deal with emergencies when they arise. To do less, I’m told is to live a negative life. In other words, you don’t have enough positive thoughts and confidence in yourself to cope with whatever is thrown at you. This can me financial, medical, physical or emotional. This person assumes I’m a negative person, I believe I’m a realist and that to base my future on positive thinking is not rational. So you can guess why I haven’t tried to persuade this person to prep. The more I make it an issue, the more negative I am and therefore I must not have much confidence in my abilities. Around and around the circle we go.

Lurker Mom – at 18:59

Kathy in FL at 16:06 Yes, this particular doctor is very irresponsible. BF aside, I know he has called in antibiotics for her when she has had a sinus infection (or thought she has had one). It is people like this who are causing antibiotics to lose their effectiveness. Good thing I have no idea what his name is….I just might report him. :)

Lurker Mom – at 19:29

Prepping Gal at 18:33

I too have a relative that says I am “inviting BF into my life” because worry creates negative thoughts and negativity causes bad things to happen in one’s life. I have been told not to “create” bird flu in my world and therefore it won’t happen. And I too have stopped trying to get this person to prep. As you can see from my last posts, I am feeling frustrated. In the last few days I have tried my prepping appeal on a few people and it has failed.

Funny thing is, I don’t feel negative. I feel empowered through my prepping and I feel an inner strength. I know I am a survivor and I will always try to survive no matter what. If I lose, well I went down fighting and realistic, just like you.

urdar-Norge – at 20:31

some of the answer may lay here, right on the forum. After spending time here for almost a year. I realise that newcomers have valubale information on what it took to get them interested.. Did someone new here hear it from friends, coleagues etc, then after some kind of proces started to investigate it or what? Please post if you feel like charing a self analysis on your learning.

After all we are not talking about some kind of “salvation” here, only a kind of knowledge process, that leads to a analysis about doing som preps and planning in case of a situation that may happen that is to big for the individual, and to massive for the systems to take care of as normal.. A crisis.. like any other one, only that this one is global and has happend before, regulary…

LauraBat 20:40

Udar brings up a good point. At least for me, it did take some time for me to become worried enough about AF to start really investigating it, and then, taking steps to prepare. There wasn’t an “ah-ha” moment, no one trigger factor. Getting people to accept the reality can take time. Push gently, not agressively. Know when to back off. Be ready for questions when they come up.

Also, gage your audience: does your target listen more to the media (reliable or not) or listen more to individuals they trust. Adjust your message accordingly. I tmay mean you have to approcah everyone on a completely indivudual basis vs a blanket approach, but better to be effective and convince 10 people than waste your time with 100 and convince one.

Average Concerned Mom – at 21:00

Lurker Mom at 15:51

I think people in the medical profession can have a profound effect in either direction — if they stress pandemic preparation with their patients their advice will carry a LOT of clout, as people perceive it to be primarily a health care issue (at the moment). And if they dismiss the threat, their patients and friends will also not pay attention.

urdar-Norge – at 21:08

well. this terory about peopple caring about social and political issues have been mentioned earlyer by historians in conection with personal loss. The theory goes something like this this.- If people have expeirenced a personal loss of some kind, they are more willing to take action to help, risk and fight for some issues. It was seen in Germany during nazi period, and in many soviet countries. Problem was that the number was stabil., and low….. Only when numbers got over a certain number, like a critical mass, the issue become “comon”..

This may answer all radicals questions to them self when young and working to save the whale, the ozone layer, the clima balance etc. “why dont people react?!” Next question here would then be. Is everyone here a “ voulantair, a good samaritan, an activist, a support in comunity etc etc in this forum? If so, we will know who to convince first.. But then again, its only “quasi science…”

oh that redflukiller, gives inspiration on a friday night.. :D

urdar-Norge – at 21:23

…just another thought.. If someone near tells you about something you see it in a certain perspective. If someone from “abroad” tells you, -you may see it with new eyes.. This was tried out on a war started not to long ago.. And may be helpfull. If some of the US citicens, organsations etc would please give the europeans a hint.. I would be very thankfull. No one here in the population cares about it anymore since the “storm” died out when avian flu landed, and “nothing” happend… :-/

good night from scandinavia :D

NEMO – at 21:27

I think we have been “tagged” spiritually. The feeling of something being “on the horizon” is nearly universal to those on the wiki. Some of us have come to recongnize more cognitive events that keyed us into searching out a way to survive the coming storm, but almost every single person here feels like someone unseen has, at some point, said “tag…you’re it”. That’s why members of the same family who have been raised exactly the same with the same experiences and education can take this all EXTREMELY differently. They weren’t “tagged” and may never be. Those you reach have already been “tagged” and your information puts a face on the event that they already “knew” was on the horizon. That’s my take.

Gary Near Death Valley – at 21:32

NEMO – at 21:27 that is an interesting way to say what seems to be happening with some of us here. Just like when I was in the fire service, and we would stand around, knowing a big one was coming, we would begin to become mentally prepared,,and time after time, a large diaster would arrive and we would spring into action. I feel the same way at this time, feeling something is coming that will strike all of us really hard. At this time I cant really say it will be bird flu pandemic, although that is right at the top of the list for me, but also could be a devasting world event, such as a large quake in the western part of the USA etc,,,,but whatever it is, feeling the urge to continue prepping and spreading the word for others to prep as much as possible. Does that make sense? I wonder if others on the Wikie feel that same way?

Wolf – at 21:37

How very interesting, NEMO. Always watching, always waiting.

NEMO – at 21:37

You pegged it Gary! I don’t know for sure it will be bird flu, but preps are pretty universal, so I am prepared for the biggie as much as any individual can reasonably get.

I sure wish a bunch of us could get together in person, I bet the electricity would be phenomanal to experience!

Science Teacher – at 21:48

I wonder if our wiki’s founders feel ‘tagged’? From the movie, Field of Dreams: “Build it and they will come’. and so we did.

lady biker – at 22:01

yes Science Teacher and I would feel a whole lot better if more would come alonge with us. You know it’s funny cause I have had this feeling all my life at different times and usually it is correct, I’m just hopeing that it’s a false alarm causes it scares me how strong that feeling is this time. I just pray a lot and hope that I can help someone survive what ever happens.

Wolf – at 22:06

Still, one must guard against any tendency towards a flu-religiosity; it becomes too easy to become an echo chamber. I’ve been quite put off by that. I enjoy hearing ALL voices.

SaddleTrampat 22:15

I wonder how much television and movies have contributed to the average person’s inability to perceive true risk? There are people who believe soap operas are real, but there are millions more who watch disaster and horror movies, and enjoy them, in part, because they understand that they are NOT real. Has that impeded their ability to understand that real horrors happen to real people?

A lot of these folks also cant relate to frightening world news events either because of the lack of depth, and sound bite reporting. They never get emotionally connected. Sept 11th was a little different because of the repetitive nature of the reporting and the “shocking factor” that it happened in a city that just about everyone in the US has some familiarity with at some level.

How many times have you heard the news anchors warn people that upcoming scenes might be disturbing, almost suggesting that they go make a sandwich for the next five minutes….?

Texas Rose – at 22:29

LadyBiker @ 2116: “The big ugly”

For me, it’s been “Something Bad”, complete with capital letters.

Science Teacher @ 2033: I’ve been reminded of that scene repeatedly in the past few months.

GaryNearDeathValley @ 2132: You said what I feel exactly!

I’ve experienced earthquakes, hurricanes, tornadoes, and even a volcano erupting but I have never felt the need to stock up or prepare before. Now, though, that need is imperative. I don’t know if there will be a pandemic or something else. All I know is Something Bad is coming and I want to be ready when it does.

02 September 2006

Bump – at 00:58
Prepping Gal – at 02:07

I feel like I’ve been getting ready for something for a number of years. I can’t tell you what prompted me but I told my DH it is something I just have to do. Prepping is something I’ve done now without any specific event prompting me. I’ve had a special sense of intuition all my life that others tend to ignore. Through my experiences I can tell you that ignor your intuition and you will deal with the consequences. It’s like I’ve got a guardian angel on my shoulder telling me “get ready” or “rethink this situation” or “don’t let pride prevent you from doing what’s right”. I can’t really explain it. I’ve never been in a life threatening disaster. I’m not a worrier and don’t consider myself uptight. I’m a calm, down to earth, non-flashy, practical person who lives a quiet life in peace and harmony.

crfullmoon – at 10:51

“There are four stages of denial,” says Eric Holdeman, director of emergency management for Seattle’s King County, which faces a significant earthquake threat.

“One is, it won’t happen. Two is, if it does happen, it won’t happen to me. Three: if it does happen to me, it won’t be that bad. And four: if it happens to me and it’s bad, there’s nothing I can do to stop it anyway”

I hear way too much of this- oi! (And worse; some are drawing town salaries in “Health” or leadership/public trust, while they say it.)

Can we at least work on a good comeback to that last one?

Of course you can do things ahead of time to mitigate your experiences during and after a natural disaster! (I don’t see it as odd to consider a deadly pandemic to be a long-duration Natural Disaster.)

amak – at 11:55

I think we all who visit and stay here are all of a kindred spirit… I read these posts and I just keep saying - yes, right, exactly!!! I am not nuts.

JV – at 12:14

When you buy a car, you buy car insurance “just in case” you have an accident. Nobody REALLY expects to get in an accident, but the insurance is for “just in case.”

When you buy a house, the same goes for fire insurance. Nobody REALLY expects their house to burn down, but the insurance is for “just in case.”

In both of these instances, the possibility of a car accident or house fire would be small, but the consequences would be devastating. That is why we buy insurance.

The insurance policy for a pandemic is prepping. Nobody knows for sure when a pandemic might occur or how bad it might be, but the way to try to survive the consequences is prepping. That is just simply an insurance policy for a pandemic. I am not so sure that the possibility of a pandemic is small, but I believe that the consequences could be catastrophic.

What is an added bonus is that prepping for a pandemic is basically the same prepping as for an earthquake or terrorist attack.

I quess the reason people don’t prep is that they have seen and heard of many car accidents and house fires and understand well how insurance for those events is necessary, yet people have no life experience with a pandemic or the consequences of a pandemic, and therefore the necessity of the prepping insurance. They have trouble imagining, so they stay with the concrete, what they know.

When I talked to my neighbor, I used the analogy of fire insurance for a house fire to be the same as prepping insurance for a pandemic. He liked that comparison and has used it on his friends.

Prepping is just simply an insurance policy. I guess people have to determine:

1. If a pandemic is even REMOTELY possible.

2. If the consequences of a pandemic are severe enough that therefore an insurance policy is warranted.

Wolf – at 12:24

JV @ 12:14: And, as has been mentioned oftentimes before, what exactly is the DOWNSIDE to prepping - for any emergency? Fact is, I’ve got a coupla hard months coming up financially. I’ll be, uh, practicing, using some preps.

Medical Maven – at 12:50

Prepping Gal at 2:07-Well said, and my experience mirrored.

JV – at 13:07

Wolf @ 12:24 -

The only “downside” to prepping is time and money and the ability to think through what is needed and where to get it.

My other neighbor is very worried about a pandemic, but he is quite busy with work and has very little free time to spend on anything but his work. Because he was receptive, I gave him numerous samples of what I had purchased, masks, alcohol hand wipes, fish antibiotics (amoxicillin), and phamplets and sources from which I ordered these products. I also gave him this web site and other informative articles re H5N1. He was so appreciative because I saved him a lot of time trying to figure out what to get and where to get it. He has the money and the vision of what could come. He simply has very little time to prepare his insurance policy.

For this insurance policy, you can’t call up an insurance agent and buy this as with other insurances. However, the need for this (considering the consequences), is so pressing that If people can envision the consequences, I think they would take the time and find a little money to start prepping.

Wolf – at 13:19

JV - Gotcha. I was speaking more in terms of reasoning. What could any reasonable person find objectionable in prepping for an emergency? But the types of impediments you describe are very real. I am of modest means (to say the least) and you’re correct that it takes a great deal of planning to prepare properly. I work 2 jobs. I also do not own a car, which limits me even further. No trips to Wally World or Aldi’s. Still, it can be done. I seldom go anywhere without picking something up ‘For the Pandemic”.

03 September 2006

Spam Alert – at 04:34

JV – at 12:14 and JV – at 13:07

“The only “downside” to prepping is time and money and the ability to think through what is needed and where to get it.”

Exactly. With the insurance policies you mentioned, one writes a check and sends it. Some or all of the coverage is mandatory in the U.S. (if you have a mortgage or for state laws / lending requirements for autos).

Pandemic insurance is entirely optional. Moreover, it takes thought, effort, $$ and time to accomplish, while investigating scenarios many of us would rather leave alone. It means getting deeply educated in the ways we’re dependent on unreliable providers, and exploring how we can devise ways to provide for ourselves and others.

This is deeply rocking the applecart, if not tipping it over entirely. It implies that the other ways we’re spending our thought, effort, $$ and time may come to nothing (or to not much) if/when a serious pandemic hits.

I’d be tempted to avoid it myself, if the panic at being unprepared didn’t MAKE me act. That said, I have found the changes from this are profound and actually … priceless. But they’re not compatible with maintaining the status quo. THAT’s what keeps people from prepping, imo.

blackbird – at 04:35

make that post above from ‘blackbird’

blackbird – at 04:35

make that post above from ‘blackbird’

blackbird – at 04:37

uh-huh, and this one too. A one-person post blitz. ;-)

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 08:43

amak – at 11:55 “I think we all who visit and stay here are all of a kindred spirit… I read these posts and I just keep saying - yes, right, exactly!!! I am not nuts.”

I feel like that most of the time, the other part of the time I think we are ALL nuts!

Kathy in FL – at 08:54

Some people DO put a lot of time into buying insurance before they send out that check. <grin> My hubby is a “rate shopper” and will spend hours, days, weeks of effort before deciding what company to go with. We really have to because it is a major expense of our business.

But there are people that just go with a “name brand” insurance thinking that that is going to cover them in the event of an emergency. Think again … there are people all over the south that have learned that to their chagrin. They didn’t read their policy and now suffer for it.

For me it still comes back to the way we think about things. To have an independent thought process is important, but not nearly as important as making the choice to act on that independent thought.

For many people it is simply easier to allow other people to do their thinking for them. I’m not being snide, not really. We all do it to a great or lesser degree … its how we spread out the work load of life. What we have to find a way to do is to get people to realize that prepping is an individual task that requires individual thought and planning … it is not a task that can be left up to someone else.

And as importantly, we also need to get them to realize that IF they do chose to leave a task up to someone else, then they still retain the responsibility of consequences if “leaving it up to someone else” winds up not being a good decision. Don’t blame your spouse for not stocking the kitchen cabinets. Don’t blame the cops if things get “uncivil.” Don’t blame the government when they don’t arrive at your door on a white stead to rescue you from your own choices. Don’t blame the docs if it takes a while to get a working vaccine and your food runs out beforehand.

Average Concerned Mom – at 09:11

I think a huge obstacle to preppring (foodwise at least) is that most people I know do not actually EAT shelf-stable foods much. It is one thing to stock up on medications and such, like Tylenol. It is another to stock up on foods you generally wouldn’t or don’t eat. It requires a lifestyle change, especially if you do not bake or cook from scratch.

I think this is one reason prepping might be more easily promoted in the country versus the big cities — it is less of a stretch for people who live far from restaurants to say “stock up your pantry a bit” versus those in the cities who generall pick up take-out food or shop every day.

Citygirl – at 14:51

I’m a city girl and yes I have a tendency to pick up take out food a lot. I had to sit down with paper and pencil and write down what I thought the actual days would be like if I had to stay home all the time. We eat out for breakfast and lunch everyday and a lot of dinners too since we are all so busy. I have been reading here a lot now and have managed to get about three months worth of food stocked that we would eat. I’ll miss my daily salads and fresh fruit that I pick up all the time. I have gotten things ready to be able to sprout and have canned and dehydrated fruits and veggies.

I remember baking from scratch from when I was a kid, I figure I can do it again if I have the time and if I am staying at home I will.

I’ve paid attention to what everyone has said about what we may or not have in regards to power and have made adjustments to my strategy. I like my soft mattress, natual gas, running water but I will do what is neccessary to keep my family safe.

There sure is a lot to be done.

31 October 2006

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Worried in Wales Please Post

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Worried in Wales Please Post

03 September 2006

Anon in uk – at 14:27

To worried in wales from anon in uk There was what i think was a die off of birds in Lancaster a few days ago i heard a radio report while out shopping on a local radio frequency of local people being interviewed saying they had been phoning DEFRA for a week and the birds were still there rotting and other birds pecking and moving on,Then DEFRA said it was pollution but if the birds were still there they could not know that.on getting home i could not find the frequency on checking welsh radio i heard the word Lancaster but it was in welsh can you see if you can find it.There is nothing on TV at all or anywhere local. Thanks a million I apologise if i am not supposed to do this but i cannot find a thread that worried in wales is on i hope you do not mind

31 October 2006

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / UV Light As a Desinfectant

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: UV Light As a Desinfectant

02 September 2006

Urdar-Norway – at 20:43

The question on using Ultraviolet light to desinfect air, water and items that dont do so very well with alchohol, bleach, boiling and heath has been dsicussed here.

This nice hackers have made a UV breadbox with a DIY guide. Their intention was funny reasearch, but it functons well. Note the end of article about UV light saftey etc. Easy to build, and would probably work better to desinfect those last disposabel masks in stock than any other technik…

http://www.inventgeek.com/Projects/breadbox/page4.aspx

Torange – at 21:11

Building a UV air system would be simple but virus exposure time as the air flows through the box needs to be adressed. How long does it take UV to kill a virus.

no name – at 22:50

Would this be something to use to disinfect mail? If not, does anyone have an idea on making paper coming into the house virus free?

gharris – at 23:09

I have had a UV water filtration system for many years - but it needs electricity to run!!! Will be SOL when TSHTF!!!

Science Teacher – at 23:46

I also have a UV whole house water filtration system for my well. Since my well is in an area of ponds, streams and a hangout for local birds and ducks, I plan to dedicate my one generator to keep my system up and running. I am concerned over recent news that H5N1 seems to be adapting better to living in water at warmer temperarure and for longer periods.

I have seen UV lamps on EBAY. You have to be extremely careful with your eyes with these.

03 September 2006

pfwag – at 00:08

Udar and no-name: The problem with using UV is that there is a time and intensity requirement for killing pathogens. This is a very hard thing to monitor, especially in air or moving water, and if wrong you will have live pathogens.

For disinfecting paper (and other things) use heat. There is a time and heat requirement to kill pathogens too but it is easy to measure the heat and time. While I do not have any data on the relationship to kill pathogens in the air, I have detailed information on heat pasteurization of water in my (free and I am not selling any thing ) water report that is currently 115 pages and almost finished. Send me an e-mail if you’d like a copy pfwag@lycos.com

gharris: It is relatively easy to have backup power for operating the UV lamp but when the power is out for any considerable length of time ultimately you will not have any water pressure either. Another problem with UV disinfecting is that most do not have a lamp-fail circuit that shuts off the water flow. Without that live pathaogens come zipping through. Bad enough with crypto but a whole different ball game with H5N1.

A very new water filter is the Watts Premier WP2-BVC, an NSF approved filter that will kill bacteria and virus. It is brand new technology and hardly anybody carries it but you can find it at http://tinyurl.com/kwgz5

I have asked the owner of the company, Mark, to test the system at a low head (pressure) similar to his low pressure filter offerings (http://tinyurl.com/efaaa). Note the low pressure filters and all the pertinent info for having pure water in an emergeny situation. Mark told me he would have an answer on Tuesday. Ideally you would want the Watts biological catridge preceded by Argoncide’s Nanoceram http://www.argonide.com/ filter. The Nanoceram is also brand new filter technology. It is not NSF approved like the Watts biological filter but it makes for one serious pre-filter to protect the Watts biological filter cartridge. For some real interesting stuff on the Nanoceram see http://tinyurl.com/rbm9m and http://tinyurl.com/rh4rg

If you are serious about having pure water, with or without electricity, get one of Mark’s engineered systems. Great prices and no Far-East junk. As far as I know, Premium Water Fiters is one of the few if not only water filter company that carries the Watts WP2-BVCand Nanoceram.

Since this isn’t about UV Disinfection and the info is very pertinent for preppers I’ll post it and some more info I just recently discovered under a different thread.

urdar-Norge – at 08:24

when it comes to water, and there is no electricity, use a ceramic filter like Doulton and bleach, its just that easy. But I beliwe that blackouts will not be a single one lasting for a long period, but rolling rations just like they do in every part of the world with energy shortness and breakdowns. This could mean that electric technolgy also should be a part of a plan for coping.

I googled a chart on time and intensity for UV C light and killing pathogens, its a science that would be very easy to be in range of if there is a single objekt like paper, maks etc. Just give it more time and exposure than the charts say… Of course the questions of UV shadow has to be dealt with.. A object like a wool sveater would be easyer to boilwash than to UV radiate right trhu.

If its a flowing medium like air or water its different… In water I would leave the math to the producer of a complete system.. In air I would jugde a system to be “ a % reduction” of any virus in a sirculating system over time, not a bulletproff 100% safe risk free life (nothing in this world is 100% riskfree…)

A good old heathfan has been proposed as simple and effective wirus cleaner of air in sickrooms etc.. But UV light need less energy, and is then very interesting in batterypowered systems, or when to much heath is a problem..

Remember that the hospitals dont use UVC to disinfect skalpels etc, they use autoclaves and then places the equpiment in a UV box to keep it clean over time..

And a small warning. Some products claim to disinfect surfaces with UV, like a flashlight.. If soo, the light has to be very strong,, and you could not practicaly use it whitout protective glasses and full coverage of skin.. maybe the lamps reducses the number of pathogens, but not a near 100% in my opinion.. but I am no expert :)

31 October 2006

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Betel-nut Spit Treatment

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Betel-nut Spit Treatment

03 September 2006

pfwag – at 03:45

damn - cross off the Betel-nut Spit treatment and witch doctor.

http://tinyurl.com/kjql5

31 October 2006

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Duck and Goose Hunting

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Duck and Goose Hunting

02 September 2006

MnEagleat 16:28

It’s now early goose hunitng season here in Minnesota—with duck season coming up. My husband does both & I would like people’s opinions of whether he should or not. Of course, this also includes us consuming them. Minnesota is on the Mississippi flyway. Of all that I’ve read on the subject, I have great reserves about him doing it.

LauraBat 19:15

I totally understand your reservations. Most of the H5N1 few cases found in wild birds have been the “low path” version, not the “high path” version that is killing millions of birds in Asia and elsewhere. However, that doesn’t mean 1) that it can’t change quickly as H5N1 is highly contagious among birds. If you’ve looked at the migratory patterns then you know birds coming here can easily have come in contact with sick birds elsewhere. 2) authorities may not find it for awhile. Many wild birds are asympotmatic carriers (ducks especially), meaning they show no signs of the disease but can give it to other birds. So, the authorities would have to be doing lots of testing to see if it has arrived here. It could easily get missed for awhile until either wild or domesticated poutlry start dying off. Many states have testing programs, but given how contagious it is I don’t think it would take too many sick birds to start infecting others here.

Supposedly if infected meat is cooked thoroughly then it is safe to consume. I beleive the virus survives when frozen as well. I’m not a hunter (but I do understand your interest in the sport), but persoanlly, I wouldn’t risk it. Maybe give it a rest this season - you’re more than welcome to come down to CT and get the deer ravaging my back yard!

urdar-Norge – at 19:49

dustmask when ribbing, gloves/ and handwashing. The virus is probably not in the US, and even here in northern skandinavia the hunting will go as normal, even there was some cases of HP H5N1 this spring. Good hunting !

gharris – at 22:58

I think hunting in wetlands is a HIGH risk activity!! The risk of a sudden leap to undetected high path in waterfowl is a serious concern!! I worry about possible high path birds being ‘dressed’ at home and possible contamination of household surfaces and articles, as well as the hunter’s clothing, boots, gloves etc and more particularly that the virus that could become stuck to hair of hunter and his dogs! Are the hunter’s children in the habit of playing with the dogs or with the feathers of dead birds? Any child who touches any HP contaminated article then runs the risk of infecting his entire school. I am convinced that if H5N1 arrives in my community, it is more likely to be brought by a hunter than a traveller from Indonesia.

31 October 2006

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Inherited Partial Immunity to Viruses

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Inherited Partial Immunity to Viruses

01 September 2006

Niah – at 21:42

I was just thinking about a crazy theory. This may a simple and ignorant question, (may have already been asked, too) but is there any such thing as inherited partial immunity to virsues?

Say my Great-Grandmother was struck with the 1918 Flu (which she may have been, but survived). When she gave birth to my mother, a certain amount of antibodies would have passed on to her. And again, if she was breastfed. Do these prenatal and postnatal antibodies that an infant receives survive through the life of the individual, even if they are just a small amount?

Would they, yet again, be passed down to the Granchild, etc.?

I realize this is very far-fetched, but I thought I would just ask the question, as the 1918 Flu is supposed to be the sister to H5N1, inferring that they are extremely similar in genetic makeup, I am guessing. I also understand that the article below is specifically addressing bacterial antigens, but wondered if antibodies to viruses could be included in this.

Obviously I am wondering if any of us have even a tiny bit of genetic immunity.

For reference:

Immune system From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (Redirected from Immunity (medical))

Because they have had no prior exposure to microbes, newborn infants are particularly vulnerable to infection. However, the mother provides her baby several layers of protection against infection. In utero, maternal IgG is transported directly across the placenta, so that at birth, human babies have high levels of antibodies with the same range of antigen specificities as their mother. Further, breast milk contains antibodies that are transferred to the gut of the infant and protect it against bacterial infections until the newborn can synthesize its own protective antibodies.

INFOMASS – at 22:35

Niah: This is WAY outside my real knowledge area, but I do know that even the same person can lose immunity to Yellow Fever, Small Pox and Polio vaccines over many years, and they are viral. It is costly for the body to maintain antibodies and if there is no use, I would assume that fewer are kept around. (There are many layers to the immune system and general immune functions remain as a defense - I am speaking of specific proteins “remembered”.) So, it is not likely that a lot of immunity would be conferred over two generations, though some immunity is conferred from mother to child. A different point is that genetic variation might allow some to survive and reproduce, so those still living might resist certain diseases more readily. That might be a stronger reason. But those who know better should weigh in.

Niah – at 22:45

INFOMASS – at 22:35

Thank you for your reply…I appreciate it. I know absolutely nothing about the science regarding this. :-) Niah

02 September 2006

urdar-Norge – at 08:18

as I understand it we are all more or less imune against the spanish flu, not the orignal, but the related viruses that is the comom flu.. That if you have had the flu, or one of the vacines. This goes for all the “childrens” deseases as well. They ocurred in human history during the periods of new types of animal household and imigration/wars.. Thats why children nowdays who get the viruses only get sick, and dont die,, many many years ago, the same viruses killed the entire populations..

I am no expert, only heard this on a very interesting lecture abous zoonoses, the deases we have gotten due to our contact with animals during historic times.. Birdflu is one of this, a natural consekvens of animal household..

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zoonoses

urdar-Norge – at 08:33

just a note.. I discovered that the articles about H5N1 and pandemics on wikipedia are getting bigger and better, it seem that fluwiki is able to manifest strategies and knowledge for the entire world, and I want to thank all who have participated in this articles :) Its very nice to link to wikipedia when you want to inform someone, and with no harm intended to the fluwiki. Wikipedia is much more consis and easy to get owerwiew than this enourmesly site and project called Fluwiki. Historians will love to get their hands on this archive, make sure they will :)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_pandemic#Strategies_to_prevent_a_pandemic

Poppy – at 10:32

Niah – at 21:42 My husband’s grandmother died in December 1918, a victim of the Spanish Flu. His mother who was age 2 when her mother died did not seem to either have any special immunity to influenza nor did she seem especially susceptible to influenza. My husband on the other had is very susceptible to influenza. Even a mild strain can make him very sick. A more virulent strain that once had me and our then infant son down sick for just over a week nearly killed my husband. I was nearly made a widow at age 21 and our son an only child by something most people think of as nothing, just “the flu”. Now he gets a flu shot every year.

So if you ask me my awnser to your question would be no. You would have no more immunity than anyone else. Not an expert opinion I know, just our experiences.

Niah – at 11:24

I should have said at the top…my “Grandmother”, not my Great-Grandmother. I accidentally went back a little too far.

urdar-Norge – at 08:18

Very interesting…thank you for your post.

Poppy – at 10:32 I see what you’re saying. I guess I was hoping our genetic makeup might have some lingering memory of the killer 1918 Flu, so we might possibly be able to overcome H5N1 a little better since they are such similar strains.

I’m glad you and your family got over your bouts with the flu…it sounds horrible. Thank you for your opinion…I’m learning. Niah :-)

Niah – at 11:29

I wonder if TomDVM, Anon-22, or Monotreme could tell me in a tick-tock if this is way off base? Many thanks….

Racter – at 11:50

Niah, the sort of immunity you’re talking about is referred to as “aquired immunity”. As the name suggests, this is not inherited. The immune system which produces it, however, is mostly a product of genetics, though it may be influenced by many other factors during development. A broader issue is “genetic susceptibility”, which includes, but is not limited to, immune response. The same degree of exposure to a virus will lead to infection in some individuals, but not in others, and this is true even with a virus to which none of the subjects have been exposed previously, and therefore cannot be entirely a reflection of varying degrees of aquired immunity. We don’t know why, but it surely has to do with factors — receptors, cellular mechanisms, distribution of various types of cells, etc — that are strongly influenced by genetics (though, again, not necessarily determined by genetics).

Leo7 – at 14:47

I think the CCR5 gene or delta 32 gene is the inherited trait to ease viral disease susceptibility. There was a TV program about it last week. An English town Eylam filled with descendents of the black plague. A high percentage of them carried it. Ergo delta 32 prevents plague, and HIV disease and more than likely if you have it a pandemic virus as well. No one here wants to discuss it much cuz it costs quite a bit to be tested for this trait. If you inherit delta 32 from both parents you’re a viral survior in all probabibility. If you inherit from one parent you will get sick, but will eventually fight off a disease like HIV unless you are exposed to a “hot version”, this might account for people suddenly going HIV negative. The partial inheritance of delta 32 might also account for the ones who got H1N1 and survivied. To learn more about it just google delta 32 gene, but understand the articles are primarily written for people who understand genetics. The partial inheritance trait doesn’t get as much attentions as the full inheritance but it’s still a player in who recovers from viral illness.

anon_22 – at 14:57

Niah, what you are asking is whether your gandmother’s acquired immunity to the 1918 virus will be passed on to you. The answer is unfortunately no.

What Leo7 is talking about is an inherited ability to be relatively less susceptible to viral infections. Which if present in your family, would not be dependent on whether your grandmother was exposed to the 1918 virus or not.

anon_22 – at 14:59

Niah, the maternal antibody effect that you quoted is for newborns only, generally lasting not more than a few weeks.

anonymous – at 15:12

but you can inherit some properties which make you less likely to catch H5N1. Number of alpha 2–3 cells in the upper respiratory track or such. Many possible things which H5N1 likes or dislikes and which can be inherited. So, when some of your great-grandparents died in 1918, that could be not so good.

Niah – at 16:02

I do understand everything you all have posted..thank you very much for the information…I wasn’t sure how long those maternal antibodies were effective either, but now I do. A few weeks sure isn’t much.

  Thanks again, everyone, I appreciate the enlightenment.   :-)  Niah
LauraBat 19:23

I just posted this on the news thread, from MSN: Man lived to 112 on sausage-and-waffles diet ‘We often find it is in the genes rather than lifestyle,’ says expert. Story recounts the life of a 112 California man who recetnly died. With the exception of his lungs (he died on pneumonia) his other organs were totally clean, no cancer, nothing, despite a lifetime of bad eating.

So while you don’t really inherit protection from ancestors against certain diseases, you can inherit some of the ability to fight them. I am a strong believer that genetis play some role. Some families are sadly plagued by higher than average cancer cases, etc. My neighbor’s kids are sick all the time - they ride the same bus and go to the same school as my kids, but my kids aren’t sick nearly as often. Strengthening your immune system may be beneficial as well. You can do that by eating well, exercising and getting plenty of rest.

31 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 21:16

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Coping with Your Emotions During a Pandemic III

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Coping with Your Emotions During a Pandemic III

29 August 2006

Bronco Bill – at 00:47

Continued from here


please check this out – at 21:04

Time to edit. Dem has posted our report. Please go to this link to view it Coping

Lots of other good articles on that topic there also.

Read, add changes, add more site links, information. Dem has posted the framework there and it is yours to add changes as you want. It is easy to edit (even for me the computer challeged person). Just go to the top of the document and press “edit”. Add your name and reason for the edit, somethink like ‘to add link’ or whatever, then save it.

Due to space concerns, I had to leave some great links mentioned here out of it due to email length considerations when I sent it to Dem. Please feel free to add your links, play around with it and have fun. I think it will grow into a good framework for laymen to look at and better understand some of the coping issues that we may all face before, during and after a pandemic. ST

I hope this thread will live on as a place for people to express their concerns and ideas, : )

EnoughAlreadyat 02:39

Okay, I am going to try this again. I apologise that I don’t have time to see this through, however, I hope you all will follow through with my suggestion.

Coping with emotions. Where do you start? Giving a name to the emotion. Then what? Where is it coming from, and why.

My suggestion? I can read through nearly every thread on this site and come up with some very basic and common emotions. It will be the same thing seen “then”. Only, potentially then the “continuim” will be on the more drastic, ugly side. Why? Well, the same emotions are seen on this site. I can name them, but choose not to. Why? Because I want y’all to do that. Why?

Because… if I ask you “now” what you are “feeling” about prepping, and why you are prepping… it would be those emotions, those feelings, that are pertinent to coping. It will be what makes and breaks you… and your ability to help others (and yourself) COPE. So, I ask you… how does all this make you FEEL? And how will it relate to “then?”

EnoughAlreadyat 02:53

Clue: there “is” a trend. And it is the key. (I don’t mean to be cryptic, but it is so important to getting this “coping.”) I really hope y’all pick up on the “trend.” When you do, you will see it here and how coping is working. And, how it will work “then” as well. It will work on coping with anything.

If you have ever been to a therapist, do they give you the answers?

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 08:44

So it’s ‘empowering’ ourselves by figuring it out ourselves?? Or somthin’ like that?

Science Teacher – at 12:40
 Excellent points, EnoughAlready!  Would you be willing to add your powerful points to the draft linked above?  

Therapists “guide” folks through the map of emotions. In a pandemic, we may not have access to the help they can provide. The draft provides people with links to a framwork to identify normal coping reactions and ones that may require additional help. It also links to ideas that will help people cope with their emotions. There are many other comprehensive documents written by other wikians on similar topics at the same place the draft was linked to.

I’m -working-on—it, I agree. Knowledge about emotions and the self-improvement of coping skills will help foster self- empowerment.

I observe the emotions that people on this site and elsewhere are feeling in thinking about a pandemic to be something like this:

1. Becoming aware of a possible pandemic. FEAR, anxiety, worry (what will happen to me and my family?), agitation, even panic. Over- reaction, thinking about it constantly, becoming glued to the tv or computer for news. Seeking advice, reassurance. Dashing out to buy prep. supplies, thinking the pandemic will happen tomorrow. “I can’t seem to get this off my mind” thinking and feeling. Facing mortaity and becoming terrified. I don’t know if I can do this. I feel overwhelmed! I can’t stop worrying! (the beginning of an adjustment reaction).

2. Denial. This can’t be true, they don’t know what they are talking about, this can’t happen to me, how dare they frighten me. This makes me angry. (Retreat to self cocoon where it is ‘safe’ to be).

3. Panic thinking slows down. I learn more about the pandemic. I accept that it may be coming. I begin to feel hope that there are things I can do that may help family and friends survive. I begin to talk about my feelings with others. Perhaps I can take one small step to help myself and family. I feel encouraged; I learn more and take more steps. I begin to feel more confidence. Relief that I am not alone in doing this. I think I can do this. I can make a difference. The pandemic will not happen tomorrow and there is still time to prepare for it. I feel more relief. I reach out to help others and I feel good about doing this.

blackbird – at 13:41

This was an interesting posting from Yahoo news about a study of after-effects of Katrina that’s pertinent to thinking through effects of other potential disasters. Editorializing at the end of the article notwithstanding, there’s evidence of strength in the survivors as a result of their experience (in addition to the traumatic impacts).

http://tinyurl.com/pqp6p

Science Teacher – at 14:27

Good find, Blackbird! It is great to read that there may be a few positive ‘side effects’ of a disaster. Here is a link to the research paper posted 6/28/06 on the WHO Bulletin board:

http://tinyurl.com/ggtyd

I kept thinking of that old adage as I read your linked story, “what doesn’t kill you can make you stronger” (in some cases anyways).

Nice to read something positive, though. Thanks.

30 August 2006

Enough Already please post – at 14:41

I think I left out “despair” as an emotion. When we come up against this one as I have seen reflected in many threads here, many of us will keep on trying because we are motivated to save our loved ones.

 Enough Already:   Please comment more.  What do you feel we have missed?

31 August 2006

Science Teacher – at 16:27

I think Enough Already may be away. I hoe he comes back and solves the ‘puzzle’ he has left here. :)

no name – at 21:55

As I read the postings on social distancing, which I understand, believe, ect. I see myself becoming more amd more aware of door handles, washing hands, touching face and working to retrain myself in these behaviors.

However, I am finding myself shaking hands, hugging and casually touching people more than I have done in the past. I wonder if knowing of the coming BF and what it will take to survive…I am trying to “stock up” on human contact also.

The poster’s on social distancing thread were talking about the personality that it would take to SIP and whether they knew anyone that was capable of maintaining isolation. If we don’t stay in how can we survive? It is a strange world we are envisioning. Sci Fi couldn’t get any better.

01 September 2006

Science Teacher – at 22:32

no name, you wrote just what I’ve been feeling too. I have this stange feeling when I am with my kids of wanting to freeze time, to make this moment last forever. I am storing up memories, I guess and I just can’t get enough of them.

Lots of conflicting emotions as we adjust, I guess.

I don’t believe there is one personality type that would be better at enduring SIP. Everything will change if a pandemic hits. We will all be as one when nature kicks in and we go into survival mode. I think our genetic survival personalities will emerge and we will all unite in fighting this beast.

Gary Near Death Valley – at 23:10

no name – at 21:55 It does take some practice to NOT touch your face, without using a hand sanitizer before hand. A small group of us out here Death Valley, have been using hand sanitizer since the SARS outbreak. What happened is that we eat out ALOT, and my wife and I started using it and explaining to the others the benefits of using, when needed, and we explained some of the most infection covered things are buffet utensils, that people touch.

All of our meeting group now uses hand sanitizer all the time, and all of us are constantly informing others about the use. Along with this, a sprinkle of the avian flu virus is thrown in, to show what a great benefit this is and will be.

Wolf – at 23:20

Although conscientiously TRYING to practice care in re-touching, I’m convinced I’ll need to add obvious things like glasses, hanging bottles of sterilizing goop everywhere, wipies everywhere else, etc. to change habits of a lifetime. I already think about shaking hands; an act that went without thought just months ago… And also burn into my brain the views of the day - I may need ‘em, someday.

Science Teacher – at 23:48

My Purell goes everywhere I do. I’m finding it hard to remember not to touch my eyes and anything else but am growing much more aware of it. Also using my sleeve to open public doors. I must look a bit odd as some time it takes me a few tries to do this. LOL

Thanks for the tip about the buffet spoon, I hadn’t thought about that one yet. I read somewhere that the new social norm will be touching elbows instead of shaking hands.

I am taking lots of photos now…

02 September 2006

Gary Near Death Valley – at 00:14

Wolf – at 23:20 Yes it is a counsious effort to contantly remind yourself about touching eyes, etc, and both my wife and I carry ours all the time. In fact I buy them at a 99Cent store (much cheaper) and make my own by adding in about 1/3 isopropl alcohol into the solution of Purell etc and it makes it stronger. We stocked up on them as well as alcohol bottles, at least 62% isopropl alcohol and now is the time to stock up on that. Alcohol is very inexpensive and stores easily, but keep away from heating devices.

Bump – at 01:27
Wolf – at 11:27

I suppose this would be more aptly termed Coping with Your Emotions Pre-Pandemic, but I find myself existing in 2 parallel spaces simultaneously. In one, I’m doing all I can to retain a sense of normalcy and day-to-day living, planning without thought to serious disruption. In the other, I’m doing all I can to prepare for the possibility of panflu as well as other disasters. I’m increasingly finding it harder to separate the two, and am becoming more and more impatient with (what I see as) skewed priorities, individually and collectively. Maintaining a balance is becoming harder by the day.

no name – at 11:41

WOLF @ 11:27

Maintaining balance…for me this is the code of this existance. It is more difficult as you see the illusion of this experience melt away and the awareness of a new reality come to be.

I am in shock and awe over this one.

Although on the other hand there is a certain level of excitement about the whole process. Strange.

Wolf – at 11:46

no name @ 11:41 I KNOW! It’s like you’re in the midst of ‘an historic moment’; shocking, awesome, terrifying - and exciting. Strange and disturbing, yet true.

Chesapeake – at 11:52

Wolf- that sounds very close to how I am feeling also. Keeps me close to home, afraid I might jump all over someone about their “skewed priorities”.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 11:55

Wolf, I understand exactly what you mean…..in order to keep my sanity, I have to just chill out financially until DH’s paycheck comes in, then I’m like a racehorse out of the gate to place the orders I’ve been planning & tweaking for the last 2 weeks. Then when the stuff comes in, I’m all excited, inventory it and store it without having anyone to really rejoice with over it, then have to just settle down into the same life that everyone else is living until the next paycheck comes!

And with me it’s almost a room to room thing…..when I’m close to my preps I get excited shivers, sort of like Marilyn Monroe would being around diamonds. But if I’m in the living room, even though I have preps there too, it’s just a ‘regular’ room and life is just normal day to day stuff.

The sense of excitement/urgency is more of what I want to feel and more like what I’m comfortable with-instead of it making me nervous or stressed it just propells me forward in a focused direction. The other night I was wikiing & watching tv while lying on the couch, & something I read made me just pop up off the couch as if I was in a hurry to do something. Of course I had no plan to do anything, but my body just responded to something I’d been reading that I guess made my heart leap with excitement a little and caused me to just pop up like a jack in a box ready & willing to do something else toward prepping, I just didn’t know what, so I just laid back down & got back in my ‘normal’ mode & felt silly.

Wolf – at 12:16

Chesapeake @ 11:52: I’m pretty much a homebody under any circumstances. My brother once described himself as ‘a loner - with friends’. We’re cut from the same cloth. But even in everyday interactions I find myself getting somewhat riled. I’m-workin’-on-it @ 11:55: I, too jump up, adrenaline rushing, must-do-something… only to find what I’d better do is some laundry… or take out the trash… maybe clean out the ‘fridge…

no name – at 12:44

Do you think we are BF addicts??? Some of the words we are using sound like it might be the case!!!

Science Teacher – at 13:03

I think in the beginning of my learning I was an addict. Hours at my computer trying to catch up in my knowledge and then hours spent thinking about prepping and actually going out and doing it. Just part of the normal adjustment process unless you feel you absolutely can’t leave that computer. Now that I am somewhat prepped (it is ongoing!), I have calmed down somewhat. Still find myself feeling like what you all described above. Most of us have probably had that feeling of just when you are about to fall asleep and your leg jerks and you are wide awake. Kind of a ‘restless leg’ syndrome of the mind. Sometimes when I am relaxed watching TV or reading a book, this will hit me. Kind of a bird flu alert jumping in. I think balancing one’s life does get easier the furthur down the road you get in this adjustment process.

Wolf – at 13:34

Science Teacher @ 13:03: Dunno about balancing getting easier. I’ve been at this awhile. My anxiety seems more related to events - and my own belief that time is NOT on our side. no name @ 12:44: Yeah, find myself using panflu shorthand but am comforted that I still don’t know what all the acronyms mean ;) Feel kinda like Steven Colbert on bears - yeah, I’m scared - but that’s just sensible!

Science Teacher – at 14:52

Events, like what has been happening in Indonesia, frighten me. Even more scary is when I think about all the ‘events’ we don’t even know about. You are right, Wolf, it is healthy to feel some fear, nature’s way of protecting us, as long as we don’t feel so overwhelmed by it that we pull the covers over our head. You are right; it is tough to achieve balance. My ‘balance meter’ changes everyday. : )

no name – at 15:09

Wolf @ 13:34

I know what you mean about the acronyms…even went to the dictionary…still buffaloed by some. Ha Ha!

31 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 21:15

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / New Suppy Bucket At Costco

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: New Suppy Bucket At Costco

01 September 2006

SoCalGalat 21:26

Just saw a bucket of what looked like freeze dried supplies, for $103.00 at costco. On the menu were things like Chicken A La King, Soups and about 6 other menu items. All were packaged in foil looking packages. It was right up front.

Dan in MA – at 22:51

Hi SoCalGal,

There was a discussion about this in the Empty Shelves thread. http://tinyurl.com/pj429

I’m afraid it’s not a good deal. It works out to be about 450 calories per day (way below starvation diet). In the thread, there is also a link to a lawsuit against Costco and the manufacturer.

31 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 21:14

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / IA Public Health and School Plan

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: IA Public Health and School Plan

01 September 2006

noodles – at 18:40

Here is a link to a video for the Iowa Public Helath and School Plan

http://tinyurl.com/m9wry

Feed Back and thoughts

Eduk8or – at 18:48

I can’t get this to open…

Dennis in Colorado – at 18:51

Opens fine for me.

Eduk8or – at 18:57

Must be a PC only download

Can someone provide commentary?? Or provide a link to a site with the transcript?

noodles – at 18:59

http://www.idph.state.ia.us/pandemic/families.asp

Try this

LauraBat 20:17

Good site. I’m going to forward it to our school. They haven’t done squat.

31 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 21:14

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Radio Report from Uk

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Radio Report from Uk

01 September 2006

Anon in uk – at 11:51

I heard a radio report while out shopping that a fairly large amount of birds had been washed up and left stinking and rotting.People were being interviewed saying they had phoned up Defra and had great difficulty getting through and the birds were left still rotting there.It then went on to say no Avian flu was present and the cause of death was in all probability pollution so not to be alarmed and go about daily business.There is no mention on our tv i was unsure of which thread to use but if Defra could not be contacted i wonder how they know it is pollution.

XanonymousXat 11:57

Anon in uk – at 11:51

A similar story is unfolding in Alaska, USA right now. Could this be what they are talking about? See news thread.

cel – at 12:00

I just posted on the news thread that there was a fairly large earthquake (6.0) in Unalaska today. Seems quite strange that there are two big news stories coming out of this remote area. Hmmmm…

XanonymousXat 12:02

http://www.alaskareport.com/news11013.htm

cel – at 12:11

I don’t know how to post the link, but the article just said that the earthquake was a 6.0 and did not pose a tsunami risk.

Anon in uk – at 12:13

The pollution has come to uk from alaska do they mean then The people were saying that they had been left rotting there and they could not get anyone to attend.It is not Bird Flu and if they are still there they cannot know that but it is to late to find out what they died of it beats me then.In scotland in April they had a positive swan and they said they waited a week to get defra to attend then they had a backlog then weybridge just disappeared.

31 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 21:13

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / MSNBC Drops Bird Flu Headline

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: MSNBC Drops Bird Flu Headline

31 August 2006

seacoast – at 12:16

The last couple of times I have gone to MSNBC for their updates I noticed that I can no longer hit the health section and then get to another page that has a Bird Flu headline and when you hit that you get all of the recent bird flu information (a whole page). This was active for months and now when we really need it, its gone. Britney, Madonna, Tom Crusie and , heaven help us, John Mark Karr are plastered all over EVERY bit of news. I am in “high gear” and it seems the rest of the world is in a different place. Am I crazy? are we crazy? WHAT IS GOING ON???

seacoast – at 12:19
banshee – at 12:21

seacoast – at 12:16, Don’t worry, I have been questioning my sanity as well. Not quite sure what the tea leaves are saying right now.

Desert Dan – at 12:39

No News is Good News… so they say

Hey we have to know what Mark Karr has to eat and what Tom Cruise is up to

ANON-YYZ – at 12:41

It’s about advertising revenue.

OKbirdwatcherat 16:48

Guess I’m showin’ my age, but why any of that (entertainment/celebrity) crap is of interest to anyone is beyond me. I think the future looks bleak (in many ways) when so many of our citizenry can’t seem to focus on anything more important than that. (mini-rant over) :)

seacoast - I also wish I knew what was going on. There seems to be this odd disconnect and I’m tending to prep a little less intensely right now. Lots of numbers out of Indo this month, but too many unanswered questions and not nearly enough firm and accurate results.

If you’re interested, FoxNews.com still has their bird flu page up.

Desert Dan – at 16:52

It is odd that the national TV news that I watch (CNN and MSNBC) has little or nothing about what is happening in Indonesia.

OKbirdwatcherat 17:01

This may be cynical, but I think the MSM would be all over it if there were some BIG numbers (i.e. deaths) to report. In other words, I don’t think it’s “sensational” enough to interest them right now. Example: no lack of coverage of the tsunami, Katrina, etc…

mosaic – at 17:21

News programs are revenue driven just like entertainment shows these days. Low ratings means they have to change what they report about to gather in more viewers to satisfy and/or attract advertisers. The Jonbenet creep and Natalie Holloway seem to fill that bill. If there were a lot about bird flu on the news, most people would switch channels out of fear or ignorance, look for new entertaining gossip about the latest Hollywood Hybrid couple to distract themselves, and ratings would go down, and hence no more bird flu segments.

What would they report in Indonesia right now? Beyond the first 3 positive cases in Garut a couple weeks ago, and a few mysterious deaths, there have only been ‘suspected’ cases, and all the results that have been coming back recently have been negative. Until there are a few more verified positive cases or verified deaths in Indonesia, or anywhere else for that matter, or BF in birds on new European, Oz, or American soil, they see nothing to report.

And not many really want to hear about it anyway.

anonymous – at 17:36

Maybe the Bush administration told them to cool it, they’re scaring people.

Only half joking.

I cancelled my Newsweek subscription last week (after many years of subscribing). Last straw was 3-page report written by former Bush adviser and speechwriter Michael Gerson. Personally, I am outraged at such propaganda masquerading as news and analysis. I am not saying this to stir up political controversy, only to point out that the Bush administration wields enormous influence on this nation’s “news” reporting.

OKbirdwatcherat 17:43

mosaic at 17:21 - Right you are.

heddiecalifornia – at 17:57

Every once in a while I check in on a place called www.rawstory.com and it has a selection of a few original pieces and then links to a multitude of national and international newspapers.

   In my opinion, they offer an alternative; however, they sometimes offer some stories so alternativly slanted that they indeed, fall over. They tend also to sensationalize some headlines.  
   But anyway, after following some of their links to Aussie, British, and other newssources outside of the US, and reading other stories they had to offer,  I found a whole WORLD of news unreported in the United States. 
   If you look closely at US media corporations, they are so interrelated with movies, magazines, tastemaking, sports teams and stadiums, advertising, records, entertainment, personalities, local and national newspapers, and local and national chains of TV stations,  and even comic books,  it’s hard to tell where one stops and another one begins. 
    Our local five o’clock news, on any given evening, has a political review, movie and TV reviews, info on the lastest Oscars and Emmees, celebrity gossip, sports reviews, comments on other news reports; ‘canned’ reports from PR services that are almost infomercials, even their own home company, and even wardrobes by connected fashion houses.  Some of the news is directly quoted from AP wire, word for word what is also in their local paper, owned also by them.  Sad.  Only the weather is news, and they get that wrong most of the time, too.  
pfwag – at 21:21

The calm before the storm. Bird migration and flu season will soon be starting.

Grace RN – at 21:37

it’s all about the $$$$$. The bottom line is always green.

OKbirdwatcherat 21:43

pfwag and Grace RN - Yep. and Yep.

heddiecalifornia -

     ‘’”Only the weather is news, and they get that
        wrong most of the time, too.”’‘

…and Yep :)

xray – at 23:26

Also the Wall Street Journal used to have a daily information section on bird flu news but they have recently discontinued it.

01 September 2006

Ocean2 – at 08:35

heddiecalifornia at17:57- about the weather is news comment….LOL! you is one funny lady.

I have to come to fluwiki to hear what is happening in the Netherlands, where I live. The media here is also totally uninterested in reporting anything about BF or the situation in Indonesia- very bitter when you consider that Indonesia was a NL colony for 400 years, and many people of Indonesian ancestry are living here.

Maybe the fact that this land is the #2 producer of poultry in the world(I didn’t know that either ‘til I came here) has something to do with it?………

Green Mom – at 08:41

Maybe we should start a rumor that Tom Cruise has bird flu….

Dan in MA – at 08:56

The bird flu section at MSNBC still exists, the link for it has just been moved from the left margin to lower down the center of the page.

You can bookmark this link

http://tinyurl.com/mjzdg

31 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 21:13

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Colorado Free Seminar Pandemic Influenza Bird Flu and You

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Colorado Free Seminar Pandemic Influenza Bird Flu and You

28 August 2006

Too Much Anxiety Girl – at 11:08

This was in the Sunday, August 28 Denver Post. It was an ad about 6 in x 6 in.

Parker Adventist Hospital / Centura Health

PANDEMIC INFLUENZA, BIRD FLU AND YOU

WHAT: Pandemic and avian influenza are NOT the same as the seasonal flu. Learn the latest facts from two of the Tri-County Health Department’s leading experts on emergency preparedness. Thomas Butts, MSc. REHS, RHSP is an Emergency Management Coordinator who oversees bioterrorism, pandemic disease and hazard preparedness; Julie Uhernik, RN, MS, NCC is a Regional Emergency Planner. Come learn how to safeguard yourself and your family now.

WHEN: Tuesday, August 29 – 6 – 8 p.m.

WHERE: Parker Adventist Hospital, 9395 Crown Crest Blvd., Parker, CO 80138 (located at E-470 & Parker Road)

FREE. RSVP NOW! To register, call 303–269–4001.

Come to our Free Seminar. Hurry, Limited Seating Available. www.parkerhospital.org

Too Much Anxiety Girl – at 11:13

That would be Sunday, August 27. Sheesh!

Lovelander – at 17:27

OY…I’ve been out of touch and just saw this. Did anyone go? Was it any good?

29 August 2006

Texas… eyes are on you – at 00:50

Hope my state (Texas) gets wind of what other states are doing and follows suit.

EnoughAlready

pfwag – at 02:56

Want to bet they use the 2% death rate of the Spanish Flu as “worst case”?

Dennis in Colorado – at 09:19

TMAG, or anyone who attends tonight, please report here. I’ll also search for news stories tomorrow to see what (if anything) the press says about it.

ColoradoTomat 18:55

Are any peeps from the Denver/Littleton area going to attend? I have RSVP’d. I’d like to meet some other fluwikie’s in the area.

ColoradoTomat 18:59

Lovelander – at 17:27

OY…I’ve been out of touch and just saw this. Did anyone go? Was it any good?

BTW, the seminar is tonight, Tuesday August 29, I think, Lovelander you confused Too Much Anxiety Girl’s correction of the day she saw it in the paper as Sunday August 27 — when it was advertised.

Too Much Anxiety Girl – at 22:29

ColoradoTom – I just saw your post. I was there – sorry I missed the opportunity to talk to another Fluwikian.

Summary to follow in a little while.

Too Much Anxiety Girl – at 23:08

Summary of presentation by Tri-County Health: Understating Avian Influenza

The population of the Tri-County area is 1.1 million …. 27 folks attended this meeting. We still have a long way to go.

The first person who spoke briefly was the disaster planner for the hospital, and he said this about avian flu: “The more we know, the less we fear.” Good grief.

Mr. Butts spoke briefly and stated that right now, West Nile virus is more of a concern that avian flu.

Ms. Uhernik went through a fairly basic presentation, distinguishing the “stomach flu”, seasonal flu, pandemic flu, and the concern that the avian flu might go pandemic. Her main theme was to minimize the danger from the avian flu in order to, I believe, prevent people from panicking. However, no one in the room seemed panicked, in fact, most seemed fairly well informed. Both presenters emphasized that at the current time, there has been no sustained h2h transmission.

Mr. Butts gave the rest of the presentation, and showed that he was indeed concerned about the danger from the avian flu (contrary to what he said in his introduction).

Some of the points he touched on included that there had been no human cases in Vietnam this year due to vaccinating poultry (true?), two human vaccines for H5N1 were in development, and that vaccine technology was 40 years old and in need of new technology. No vaccine will be available for the first wave.

Talking about health care surge capacity, he used a CFR of 4.2% and was quickly called on it. He did say that no one knows what the CFR will be, and that was just one estimate. He said that the hospitals here could handle a mild pandemic similar to 1957, but would be overwhelmed by a severe pandemic.

On to personal preparedness, he gave the standard advice about 2 weeks of food, water, meds, and supplies. Someone in the audience quickly reminded him that he had just showed that each wave of the pandemic would last 6 – 8 weeks, so shouldn’t we have 6 – 8 weeks of supplies. He responded that many folks would have trouble (money, space, etc.) even putting together two weeks of supplies, and that they wanted to give folks an achievable goal.

When asked about masks, he said that unless they were fit tested, used for only 2 – 8 hours, and then properly disposed of, that they could easily do more harm than good. They emphasized good hygiene for most of us, and that PPE would be better used by HCW and law enforcement.

During Q&A, someone asked about Tamilflu, and he said that they do not recommend that individuals stockpile Tamilflu – it’s expensive, it expires, and they need it for the seasonal flu. Tamiflu resistance was not mentioned.

In response to a question, they also talked about maintaining infrastructure. Many services here are fragmented into Metro Districts, etc., but they are talking about it. The first problem will be getting in enough chlorine to disinfect water. I’ve mentioned this before – they can probably keep the water flowing, but we should all have a way and a plan to disinfect it for drinking.

Someone in the audience said that he was not worried about people that have only two weeks’ supplies, but rather about the folks that had nothing but a gun and bad intentions. Both presenters admitted that this was a problem, and that planning for a pandemic wasn’t going to solve all of society’s problems.

I think they both gave very honest responses, and quickly admitted where there were holes in the plan. At least they do HAVE a plan that they are sharing with us. There are a lot of unknowns, but we can plan for and do what we can for this or any other disaster, natural or man-made.

31 August 2006

Dennis in Colorado – at 14:23

Too Much Anxiety Girl – at 23:08

Thanks for the report.

ColoradoTomat 14:59

Too Much Anxiety Girl

Ditto, thanks for the report. I’ve been too busy to add any of my observations.

But I might add a comment from the gentleman who was “in transportation” and his statement of there being only 2 weeks worth of food on hand at anytime throughout the metro area in warehouses/stores, etc. is a concern to me. And that at present, there is a continual resupply of chlorine for water treatment where there is only 2 days worth on hand at any given moment.

That last statement is what caught my attention.

However, if the hammer is lowered and TPTB determine that H5N1 has arrived and are suggesting that people get as many supplies as possible, the 2 week on hand supply would be depleted in hours if all stocks were available to the public. I can’t even fathom the turmoil that would follow a statement like that.

(I was in the back row, green shirt. If you care to tell, where were you sitting?)

01 September 2006

Too Much Anxiety Girl – at 00:27

It is likely true about the two weeks of food, but I don’t think we’ll see an immediate crash of all food delivery systems. Some food is grown and prepared locally (farms, ranches, meat processing plants). That said, I think that once we enter a crisis, it would be best not to have to go to the grocery store, even to “top off” – I’d worry about coming into contact with sick people or folks already incubating the disease, and I’d worry about physical violence.

One of the most powerful lessons from Katrina was just how quickly the veneer of civilization wears off.

On the chlorine for the water supply, here are some comments by Chips Barry, made in April. I think it’s good that they acknowledge the problems they are facing.

http://mmrs.fema.gov/news/influenza/2006/apr/nflu2006-04-18.aspx

31 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 21:12

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / CDC Recognizes the Blogosphere

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: CDC Recognizes the Blogosphere

16 October 2006

anon_22 – at 08:21

This is by revere at Effect Measure, re-posted here with permission:

Our Flu Wiki partner, DemFromCT, has an important post up at DailyKos today. In June of 2005, Dem (The Next Hurrah), Melanie Mattson (Just a Bump in the Beltway) and The Reveres joined forces in an experiment in community public health planning we called The Flu Wiki. We were joined by our tech guru, the blogger, pogge (Peace, Order and Good Government, eh?), and after a time by anon_22. Anon_22 was “just another” wiki participant who chose her name arbitrarily, not thinking she would become a central figure. Based in the UK, she is a physician and soon became deeply engaged in the discussions that went on at the Wiki. Now she shares moderating duties with Dem and Melanie (The Reveres are still active with Wiki policy but spend their available time here at Effect Measure). This is just the way we wanted the Wiki to work and Flu Wikians have formed all sorts of autonomous affinity groups, one of which is responsible for the current Flu Pandemic Awareness Week. You can read some of the history of The Flu Wiki here, recounted in a reply we made to a librarian who challenged the authority of this kind of new media.

As DemFromCT notes at DailyKos, that battle is now decisively over with:

One of the interesting things about blogs, wikis and “new media” (aka Web 2.0) is its ability to influence dialague and narrative way beyond the number of readers of a single post. Peter Daou (now working for Hillary Clinton) wrote this up in what he called Daou’s Triangle: media reads blogs, and the politicians and parties (and their staff) read media, while blogs write about politicians and parties. There are limits to this, of course, but there are also broader applications.

[snip]

Well, a year later, we’ve been cited by Science, the World Bank, BBC, PBS, WHO (to name a few) and this week, by the CDC [who has just started a blog of its own].

Above and beyond real-time information gathering and message dissemination, the social and community qualities of new media can advance health and risk communication by changing how we understand our problems and how we construct our solutions. News groups, chat rooms, and bulletin boards have been used for exchanging health information and as online support groups since the earliest days of the web. Today’s Web 2.0 tools that leverage and harness the “knowledge of the crowd” offer great potential for solving our most difficult public health problems and building and empowering communities of change. One great example is FluWiki, whose stated purpose is “to help local communities prepare for and perhaps cope with a possible influenza pandemic, [which is] a task previously ceded to local, state and national governmental public health agencies.”
Controlling and mitigating public health emergencies, especially those that are the size and scale of an influenza pandemic, will absolutely require the active engagement and participation of the public and all sectors of society. New media efforts to engage and galvanize the public like FluWiki, Green Hammer, and the Slidell Hurricane Damage Blog are critical to CDC’s ability to prepare for and respond to an influenza pandemic and to other possible public health emergencies. (CDC)

So CDC is finally catching on. They recently participated in a panel discussion on new media and their implications for Federal health communications programs. Here’s some of an account by one of the participants, Craig Lefebvre, whose blog Social Marketing is a wealth of interesting information on the new media and health:

The invited audience consisted of HHS health communicators including people from five Institutes at the National Institutes of Health. From past reactions I have received on social media from people involved in both federal and state health programs, I was especially interested in the participants’ reactions and comments during these 3 hours of presentations and discussion. Here are my notes:
*An immediate response was that moving into places like MySpace and YouTube (two examples I used in my talk) meant that even more time and investments would be necessary to develop effective messages for these new channels. One participant who works in the substance abuse area talked about the difficulties they were having with pro-marijuana and drug use people hijacking their sites and messages, including on-going debates with editors of Wikipedia over the slant being given to some drug entries. The notions of transparency and audience-generated content as being realities of these new media were recognized and accepted by many people in the room, but moving from linear, one-way communication models to more networked models of communication is going to be as difficult for them as it is for many companies and agencies.
*The question was raised about what the role of the Federal government should be as a source of health information in this new world? Can it be effectively positioned as an arbiter of ‘truth’ and science? Or is it going to be one of many (hundreds?) of voices competing for people’s attention and trust? What does the trend of democratization of information portend for communications planning and health communications and social marketing programs? How will social networks play a role in assessments of credibility and trustworthiness? Monitoring this new environment (blogs, social network sites, Wikipedia) was also pointed to as a new task for these offices that would require attention.
*The issue was also raised about how to ‘push’ or direct people towards health information once it was made available in social networks and other types of social media (for example, a specific health campaign’s materials). We began focusing on the need to switch the orientation from an ‘outreach’ to an ‘inreach’ approach to health information and behavior change dissemination that emphasizes discovery of information when and where people are interested in it and looking for it.
*A concern was expressed by researchers that submitting investigator-initiated grants to the NIH to conduct research with new media and technologies has been met many times by rejection by peer review committees whose members are not conversant with these technologies. It was felt that this lack of expertise and experience on these review committees (whose members determine to a large extent whether grants are funded or not) may imperil opportunities to understand and best utilize these new media in health communications and behavior change efforts.
*Some participants also shared how they have been tapping into thought leaders from the commercial world to introduce ideas and new technologies to the executive level staff at some Institutes. I believe a shared feeling was that this type of cross-fertilization and exploration of new ideas had to become more commonplace at NIH. As one participant put it, the NIH is renowned for its curiosity and research into new ideas and approaches to health and disease; this attitude needs to be equally applied to issues in health communications, behavior and new media.(Social Marketing)

These are mostly good developments. The last bullet point, above, is somewhat worrisome, however. The commercial world tends to be behind the curve, not ahead of it. Being ahead of the curve in a world where things move as swiftly as new media is essential. Unfortunately, this attitude of the federal health communicators is another example of a charcteristic tentativeness at a time when decisiveness is more appropriate.

But we’ll take what we can get. We welcome CDC to the Blogosphere.

DemFromCTat 09:34

Just as in PFAW, we need to involve livejournal, MySpace, YouTube (video), etc. if we want participation.

DemFromCTat 12:47

bump

anonymous – at 12:56

Dr Dave – at 09:42 Would you send me a copy also? ssol1232000 at yahoo dot com

Thank you.

DemFromCTat 20:04

bump

17 October 2006

lugon – at 03:53

The original story is here, with comments.

Specially important to read are mpb’s comments which I copy below - thanks for the specific permision.


I’m disappointed in what CDC (and UNC) has done with the PanFlu webcast and interactive forum. Webcasts are always a problem for those of us on dial-ups (although this was not too bad).

The presentation was a good concise summary. However, none of the questions submitted for the hour’s webcast were transferred over to the forum. The forum was not really prominent; few used it (maybe few knew of the webcast) and interest quickly died. It seemed to be (was presented in a manner of) a one-off.

Public Health Grand Rounds PanFlu

The other problem, which goes to the larger issue of who prepares and who uses the “social” Internet for preparedness, is that none of the discussion is about communities driving the inquiries; what happens if one doesn’t have advanced governmental capacity in health (e.g., most tribal governments and frontier and remote communities. NC and California and Wash state are not frontier governments); if schools have not trained a critical thinking population? We seem to have a huge number of MySpace users (300+?) given our regional population (20,000) but no one uses it to ask why the Fire Chief doesn’t think preparation is useful or to ensure the designated City Council member shows up for PanFlu briefings or to call the “Bird Flu Hotline” to find out if they know how to answer the phone.

There is a scale factor also— a thousand people urging city hall to do something in Boise or NY state or Des Moines can be heard; but the comparable number for us is something like 1 or 2.

1 or 2 people without complementary resources are not effective.

Web 2 is only a component of communication. Ironically, many traditional communities have a long history of complex non face to face communication; very few institutions have been willing to look at how that works in order to make the Internet more effective.

CDC may have a blog now, but public health agencies and academic departments and NGOs still operate from the top down and require supplication from communities. There are 2 main problems with this approach—the science and health is incomplete, by definition, without the other experts fully involved and 2) it’s us who are frontier not only in sparse population density (400 miles from Wal-Mart; 3000 miles from the nearest active nuclear test-site) but we also are the first to spot many environmental and infectious illnesses, before it hits suburbia.

So, how to press the Feds and states and tribes and universities to get going?

Posted by: mpb | October 15, 2006 07:16 PM


mpb: Good points, all. Have you raised them over at The Flu Wiki?

Posted by: revere | October 15, 2006 07:36 PM


Unfortunately, I haven’t had the time yet to figure out wikis so that I would be contributing and not occupying electrons.

[One other thing I forgot to mention was trying to get updated test results. The US Fish & Wildlife S site does not identify how to sign up for news releases; there are no feeds for them, either, as far as I could figure out. After all the hullabaloo about the bird testing, the only way I could find and post results (days or weeks before the state and local news media) was via Google news searches, which I then had to track down to verify.]

Posted by: mpb | October 15, 2006 11:40 PM


mpb, can I copy your message above into http://www.fluwikie2.com/pmwiki.php?n=Forum.CDCArticleOnNewMediaAndFluWiki please?

For those here who may not know, there are two different things over at Flu Wiki: One is wiki pages, our structured information space, with pages full of content and links, at fluwikie.com. The other is the forum, our conversation space, with sequential postings in which people start or follow a conversation, at fluwikie2.com. You need not use any sophisticated mark-up language to contribute to the forum!

Sometimes wiki pages and forum threads are linked to each other. A small example is http://www.fluwikie2.com/pmwiki.php?n=Forum.LengthOfDisease which is linked to and from http://www.fluwikie.com/pmwiki.php?n=Consequences.PandemicWaveInASpreadsheet

Things sort of feed into each other quite nicely. We help the CDC and they can use the Flu Wiki. The enemy is out there, and so are the oportunities.

Posted by: lugon | October 16, 2006 06:36 AM


mpb

“Unfortunately, I haven’t had the time yet to figure out wikis so that I would be contributing and not occupying electrons”

Just a quick response to let you know that the easiest way to contribute to the FluWiki is to go to the forum http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.Forum and post comments, which you can do at the bottom of any discussion thread, pretty much like this one. Comments are read by a lot of people and useful ones are often re-written to the wiki by others, either by request of the author or just spontaneously!

Posted by: anon_22 | October 16, 2006 07:10 AM


Please do. If you can keep the link to http://ykalaska.uniblogs.org I’d appreciate it.

Regarding academics vs governmental openness to technology (ideas)-- I have experience on all sides. The intellectual diffusion is mostly in one-direction (circular and digging ever deeper). Some disciplines are worse than others. I am comfortable stating that the absolutely worse situation was as a tribal scientist in remote communities dealing with CDC, ATSDR, EPA, UC-LANL, UAF, states of Alaska and NM, et al. But it barely surpasses the academic and research lithifications (I’ve had an NIH proposal ranked high enough to fund that year but yet be the only one not funded, a decision made at the director’s level on academic field of study grounds.) Those most open to new ideas have been those, such as secretaries, lab techs, unpaid custodians and health eds who don’t have status to lose.

“Rural Charm”

I wrote this summary based upon experience in the highway department as the public involvement coordinator (NEPA requirements, when paper ruled). As institutions learn to respond to the Internet, they will similarly learn to respond only to those who know how to supplicate the system. We don’t have collaboration with communities as colleagues. We “venture out” not live amongst.

Intellectual heterosis works, but it is often difficult to be that courageous.

Posted by: mpb | October 16, 2006 07:18 PM

lugon – at 03:54

There are other comments but I didn’t copy them over.

mpb – at 16:11

http://cerebraloddjobs.edublogs.org/2006/01/11/rural-charm/ “Rural Charm”

cactus – at 16:22
 See, mpb, that wasn`t so hard,was it?

 Welcome.

24 October 2006

mpb – at 17:06

This discussion about Google news now presenting blogs as news sources, http://lorelle.wordpress.com/ http://tinyurl.com/yxhf5q might be apropros (whatever) because I’ve been using the news alerts for understanding risk communication and perception (and because we do not get the results back from our birds).

Recently, there has been an escalation of Birds! Alaska! death! because of the LA Times article which was morphed through what Google calls news into Birds! Alaska! Eskimos cause Death! [and once again Government-doctors-health-unsuspecting Natives/minorities]

Could be interesting for someone to examine this phenomenon. We once relocated the Aleut/Unangan for the public good (WWII) and others (TB in the 1950s and 60s). There are enough government conspiracies about H5N1 and enough ethnic prejudice already.

31 October 2006

mpb – at 16:45

Goggle maybe news continues. I’ve posted the summaries at the original blog, Lorelle vanFossen http://tinyurl.com/yxhf5q

Google news alerts are now alerting to comments in blogs about Google news presenting blogs as news sources….

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / When There is No Doctor or Dentist or Vet

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: When There is No Doctor or Dentist or Vet

31 October 2006

Carrey in VA – at 14:21

Ok, so I know we had a thread about this kinda stuff awhile back, but I couldn’t find it. And frankly the title was pretty freaky and I didn’t even understand what it said LMFAO!!

So I thought another thread about how to treat medical problems during a pandemic, when going to the hospital isn’t really an option. I’m not talking basic first aid, though those questions are of coarse welcome. I’m thinking more along the lines what the first thread titled “tom dvm pet med questions” was about.

My first question is about epsons salts. My son cut his finger, got stiches, and the doc told me to soak his finger in epsoms salts twice a day. I didn’t do it for the first day and a half. His finger got red and started to swell. I finally soaked it that morning, and again that night. The next morning the swelling and redness were gone.

Now, is this something we can use for open wounds that are not actively bleeding? Say someone cuts thier arm, the bleeding has stopped, if it weren’t a pandemic you would need to go to the hospital for stitches though cause it is deep and gaping. I’d rather have an ugly scar than risk “at home” stitches more often that not.

I would clean the wound first, and then tape it closed, and cover it to keep it clean. Would soaking in epsons salts help keep away an infection? Can epsons salts be used in open wounds or just ones closed with stitches?

DC – at 14:36

http://www.metrokc.gov/health/apu/harmred/abscesses.htm Soaking helps draw out the infection. It helps the abscess come to a head and drain, soak it in hot water and Epsom Salts.

http://www.epsomsaltcouncil.org/health_usage_tips.htm —For compresses: Use 2 cups of Epsom Salt per gallon of water for sore muscles, bug bites and splinter removal. —For soaking: Add two cups of Epsom Salt to warm water in a standard-sized bathtub. Double the Epsom Salt for an oversized garden tub. Popular for easing muscle pain and fading bruises. Bathe three times weekly, soaking for at least 12 minutes. —Foot bath: Add a cup of Epsom Salt to a tub of warm water as a popular balm for aching feet. —Laxative: Consult the package directions for instructions.

Also see on google epsome salts mentioned often in wound treatments for horses, dogs etc

OnandAnonat 16:25

See the threads on “field expedient medical techniques” for lots more information

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / The Flu Wiki Forum Index

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: The Flu Wiki Forum Index

28 October 2006

Bronco Bill – at 20:41

The Forum Index is being updated almost daily now. Links have been added for the latest news threads, Parts II and III and so on for preppers and other extended threads, the Red Ribbon Campaign, PanFlu Preparedness Week, Lookout Posts, etc. With DemFromCt’s help, some new headings have been added, and links added under those headings.

If you get a chance, check it out, and feel free to add as you see fit. I’ll try to keep it in some order as you add links, so we can all find the things we need and want on the Flu Wiki Forum.

DemFromCTat 21:21

The index, of course, is over there

AnnieBat 21:34

Thanks BB and DemFromCT. I have updated all the links I can find as Lookout Posts in the News Summary but I am not confident about adding them to the Forum Index. Here is a copy of the latest listing I have if that helps ..

Cheers

NoRegion NameNoRegion NameNoRegion Name
1USA8East Africa15Arab Peninsula
2Canada, Greenland and the Arctic Circle9Southern Africa and Madagascar16Central Asia
3Central America and Caribbean10Northwest Europe and British Isles17Southern Asia
4South America and Surrounding Islands11West and Southwest Europe18Mainland East Asia and Japan
5Northern Africa12Central and Southeast Europe19Southeast Asia
6West Africa13Eastern Europe and Baltic Region20Australasia Melanesia and Micronesia
7Central Africa14Middle East and Caucasus Region21Pacific Islands and Antarctic
AnnieBat 21:35

Should have said that the ‘highlighted’ ones have actual Posts created as separate threads - the plain text ones do not.

Bronco Bill – at 21:50

DemFromCT – at 21:21 --- Thanks for putting the link to the Index there…mea culpa! (That’s Virginian for “I screwed up!)

AnnieB – at 21:34 --- The Lookout Post links (the active ones) are already listed in the Forum Index immediately after Current Threat Assessments near the top of the page…I got them listed yesterday.

31 October 2006

crfullmoon – at 15:48

bump

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / A Current Threat Assessment X

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: A Current Threat Assessment X

20 September 2006

Bronco Bill – at 19:08

Continued from here


FrenchieGirl – at 13:23

LMWatBullRun – at 13:38 — As discussed elsewhere, I think the tipping point for significant collateral damage will be more related to how many people get sick at a given time. If 25% of the people in this country became ill in a couple of weeks, almost regardless of the CFR, I think that might be enough to set off a cascading system failure.

INFOMASS – at 14:03 — LMWatBullRun: Do we have any analogous experience in which large fractions of the work force were unable to come to work in the past fifty years?

I was in London (UK) during a winter in the early nineties when a particular bad seasonal flu hit the population. It was said that 40% of the workforce was sick. In Greenwich District Hospital (South-East London), in my area, they did not have enough staff, were putting ill people in corridors. I had some difficulty in getting my normal shopping as deliveries weren’t regular and a number of shelves were bare for days. However what was missing in some shops was generally to be had, sometimes with another label, at another. I remember queuing for a while at petrol stations because some had run out. I do not remember any power cut, save trains were late or cancelled (which would have happened with British Rail anyway for a number of reasons other than this). I did not use the bus, only car, train, tube. I do not recall anything special with the tube, save the usual bomb alerts. This state of things lasted about 10–15 days, after which everything came back to normal. However, I never forgot. You may want to ask Anon_22 if she remembers when it was exactly.


Oremus – at 14:16

If you look at some of the hospital stays of bird flu survivors (sometimes 30 to 40 days), the number of people sick at any one time will be high.


JWB – at 15:31

Olymom – at 11:40 (yesterday) You can hide your own Easter eggs! I like that one!

Grace RN – at 19:26

FrenchieGirl at 1323

re:”I was in London (UK) during a winter in the early nineties when a particular bad seasonal flu hit the population. It was said that 40% of the workforce was sick…”

I think you have related a perfectly clear prequel to a pandemic.

LMWatBullRunat 19:56

The severity of what we now consider to be a “bad” case of seasonal flu would pale next to the severity of a pandemic strain. People were months recovering from H1N1 in 1918……

Grace RN – at 20:23

…and the few known survivors of H5N1 in 2005–2006 are no different. Months to recover, with serious complications…

Olymom – at 20:31

Yep, I can hide my own Easter Eggs. And we have learned that it is FAR better to hide chocolate eggs instead of hard boiled real ones because finding an old chocolate egg is DEFINITELY better than an, ahem, “mature” egg.

There is an excellent movie, “Awakenings” about a patient who is brought out of a coma after about 3 decades in a coma. I believe the patient had been a healthy young man until he got a violent case of flu (perhaps the 1918 flu?). This movie is based on the real life experiences of a doctor in New York City. (Oliver Sacks? Can’t remember . . .oh yeah, that’s what started this posting . . . can’t remember . . .)

Anyway, just because there isn’t a death, doesn’t mean a life isn’t ruined.

Tom DVM – at 22:52

“I think you have related a perfectly clear prequel to a pandemic.”

Grace. I think this time it may be those pigs in China that are the prequel to a pandemic.

“…and the few known survivors of H5N1 in 2005–2006 are no different. Months to recover, with serious complications…”…Exactly!!

Even with hospitals most die…and if you live…you may wish that you died…like SARS.

21 September 2006

anonymous – at 10:24

The Coup in Bangkok is worrying, any thoughts.?

27 September 2006

The day after tomorrow – at 04:34

Red Aleart in Africa XDR TB goes airborn.

Don’t get caught looking the other way.

moeb – at 05:19

ah the good old (very bad), threat assessment. I don’t know about TB in Africa but there are those two clusters in Indonesia… that country still with the exceedingly high CFR (death rate derived from clinical cases of H5N1) if we aren’t at level 4 for a pandemic alert we should be and I believe we will be very very soon

NoFluingAroundat 09:48

Moeb - at 05:19

In July I sent an email to WHO regarding the current alert level, questioning the fact that it should be at a 4 and not 3. Received a response from Donna Eberwine-Villagrán, Editor, Public Information, Pan American Health Organization/, World Health Organization with a bunch of mumbo jumbo as to why they are currently at level 3. Interestingly enough, I received an email from her yesterday. Going to cut & paste it here, please tell me what you think.

The subject box read “FYI”

Dear Sabby34,

You might find this interesting. http://mediresource.sympatico.ca/health_news_detail.asp?channel_id=131&news_id=10765

Best, Donna

Donna Eberwine-Villagrán

Editor, Public Information

Pan American Health Organization/

   World Health Organization

525 23rd Street N.W.

Washington, D.C. 20037

Tel. (202) 974–3122

Fax (202) 974–3143

Here is the link she attached. http://mediresource.sympatico.ca/health_news_detail.asp?channel_id=131&news_id=10765

NoFluingAroundat 09:48

oops….did not mean to double post the link

moeb – at 10:42

it was good news, the appointment of a special advisory board on the threat level at WHO. we of course know that level 4 has not been announced (to date) but heavily discussed. I think WHO has painted itself into a corner in this regard. Once it goes level 4 under current rules many countries must kick in actions that have serious ramifications.

they will have to overcome that reluctance and this advisory board is probably aimed at that.

Pixie – at 10:53

More information about the panel is now on the WHO website:

http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/notes/2006/np28/en/index.html

Because I am currently imobilized due to a nasty case of strep throat, I took the time to follow the links mentioned (and to the subsequent links mentioned) to read further details about this panel as they set them forth in the May, 2005, meeting. It was interesting reading, for anyone who wants to do similar wading through pages of legalese.

Oremus – at 12:26

from link at 9:48

The final decision on whether to move up - or down - the pandemic alert ladder rests with the director general.

—Will the panel announce/leak their recommendation to increase the level if the director general decides not to?

01 October 2006

That’s just ducky! – at 22:51

I think the Director General has already decided to raise the alert level.

That’s just ducky! – at 22:54

And I think the 20 member ad hoc committee that has been convened (ahead of schedule - was due to be convened next May) is chartered with gathering and presenting the rationale, and getting agreement from all the U.N. member states.

Gary Near Death Valley – at 22:57

Not holding my breath, BUT if they do, will be surprised….but still nothing on the news or other places yet.

Bird Guano – at 23:41

Swell.

Did WHO finally get around to appointing a Director General ?

Indonesia should rate a Level 4.

Period.

DennisCat 23:46

What do you think would happen if they did announce a level 4 ? close the country ?, stop trade ?, would it start a chain of events here?

Gary Near Death Valley – at 23:49

I think that those that keep track on the various flu blogs and news sites, would begin to prep alittle more,,,try to convince their friends and relatives alittle more,,,try to get those preps that they are short of alittle more,,,and pay attention to the news alittle more.

ANON-YYZ – at 23:54

DennisC – at 23:46

Speculation

Member states agree on and are ready with common course of action before WHO announces phase 4.

1. increased production of Tamiflu

2. government and public stockpiling for 2 weeks

3. activate training and recruitment of volunteers

4. change in employment, disability, maternity leave regulations

5. education campaign on social distancing

02 October 2006

DennisCat 00:01

I was looking over the WHO pandemic plan:

http://www.who.int/csr/resources/publications/influenza/WHO_CDS_CSR_GIP_2005_5.pdf

on page 15: item 1 is to start a panel of experts (they did that last week). Now the interesting thing is that the action is for interpandemic phase 1

On the fence and leaning – at 00:26

I just looked. Isn’t that normal? The document is long but I will get through it. Thanks for sharing. Phase 4/5 Question: It mentions larger clusters are an indication. What is the largest cluster of humans we have seen…reported? It’s not like we have seen half of a village hit. It tends to be the individuals that handle birds.

gharris – at 00:44

According to the WHO plan - governments are only required to notify the public about the likelihood of shortages of ‘basic commodities’ when we reach PHASE 5!!! That will be kinda late for the non-wikians who have not yet prepped!!

I want to note for all of us that it is a lot easier to criticize something that somebody else has already drafted rather than try to think of all the angles when you are drafting from scratch. But couldnt we somehow let them know that there are some serious problems with ‘the plan’ - i.e. they are just so focussed on the medical aspects that they have completely ignored the rest of the issues, like food water fuel economy - I wonder why these things are not addressed?? Is there anything we can do about it?? The written equivalent of ‘hey you have a run in your stocking’ - any ideas of how we could accomplish that??

lugon – at 03:58

gharris: Awareness Week. Reach out. To the max.

lugon – at 04:05

And we SHOULD also create a summary of “neglected issues in pandemic preparedness”. As a way to help. With alternatives as to what to do, specifically: stock up, save, localize etc.

10 October 2006

libbyalex – at 17:34

bump

anon_22 – at 18:11

I am speculating that the decision to appoint a panel was triggered by 2 events 1) the disagreement between the UN and WHO a while back about raising the pandemic alert, and 2) the vaccuum at the top of the WHO right now. Even after election, it will take a little time for the new DG to establish his/her authority. More importantly, the fight between countries about who should hold the DG job will be less ferocious because of the panel, which in effect reduces the power of the DG. I think its a good idea.

Pixie – at 18:24

DennisC - at 00:01: There is more info on the setting up of the panel in the 2006 World Health Assembly Resolution and specifically the International Health Regulations 2005 (IHR) which come into force June 15, 2007 (at which time the panel formulation and purpose changes). Wading through the PDF’s, look for Article 48 which has the most detail on the panel and other similar issues.

DennisCat 18:40

Pixie – at 18:24 thank you

30 October 2006

lugon – at 08:17

Question (suggested by anon_22 a few weeks ago): is “possibly secondary cases / all cases” ratio increasing?

Sources:

Limitations of the sources:

Method:

  1. Add up all cases for each year.
  2. Count the number of clusters (for each year).
  3. Add up the number of “cases belonging to a cluster” (again, for each year).
  4. 3–2 gives you the number of “possibly secondary cases” (PSC).

Please check my figures but I get the following:

Looking at 2006 in 3-month periods:

Interpretations:

Conclusion:

I don’t want to say I’m sure about all this. Please review and comment. Thanks!

Green Mom – at 08:38

Lugon-I’m reading this, but I feel that I don’t know enough about R-naught to make an intelligent comment.

lugon – at 08:40

Limitations of the sources:

We may have enough information to build up a case to “here’s the data, make up your own mind” to the public, or at least to the more educated part of the public (or to those who, like us, are doing their best to catch up as fast as possible). It certainly looks like things are getting slowly worse, and certainly not better.

lugon – at 08:48

Green Mom - R-naught is defined as the average number of secondary cases. In past pandemics I think it was between 1.8 and 2.1. It has to be higher than 1 to start an epidemic, otherwise it “dies off” because each case yields less than one new case.

I read somewhere that WHO pandemic stages 4 and 5 would correlate with R-naught lower than .5 and lower than 1.0 respectively. These would be averages and there would be other factors to take into account, sure.

Here’s my shakey conclusion (please prove me wrong!): The proportion of cases that are compatible with H2H transmission is growing as time goes on. The same fact could be explained by a more efficient B2H transmission. The first case would be uglier than the other but I don’t like any of these interpretations.

Tom DVM – at 10:10

lugon. We need to chase Monotreme around and get him to comment on this data. Thanks for all of your hard work.

lugon – at 12:31

Yep, and Monotreme once told me this was more someone else’s business. We’ll find out and get in touch.

Thanks for your encouragement!

Newsie – at 12:58

Lugon, are there other specific “signposts” you are looking for to solidify the conern your formula raises? If so, please let us know so we can all be looking for it too.

Green Mom – at 12:59

Lugon-I have (reluctantly) learned what R-naught is (Sort of)and what you say makes sense to me, but I just don’t have the depth of knowledge here to refute you. It does seem to me, as a lay person who is somewhat knowledgable about this, but by no means an expert, that we should be at a level four, as far as the R-naught factor and other medical/epidemiological evidence indicates, though I also know that there is a political/economical factor to be considered. What I’m wondering is-what would a level four alert mean-to the average person? Will certain plans go into effect, quarantine measures, for example? I know theres an epidemilogical difference between levels 3 and 4, but what would a change in levels mean socially/politically/economically? I thought I read somewhere that certain goverment/corperate plans were keyed to the WHO pandemic levels.

Heres a scenario:I know that if WHO goes to a 4 everyone here on the WIKI will be excited (NOT PANICKED!!!!) because we know what that means in terms of pandemic spread. But if I go out and tell, say, my dentist?- “WHOS pandemic scale has just gone up to four!” She would look at me and say “So?” Whats the short answer I can respond with? Will borders close? Will school shut down? Will food prices skyrocket? Will anyone outside the flu community even notice? Does anyone know?

LauraBat 13:17

The big hole (okay, a gapping, glaring, crater) is how many people (if any at all) either had mild symptoms or none at all? It may be doing more H2H transmissions than we know about because people don’t get that sick. However, in the absence of that data, it does seem that there is a clear rise in the number of what I call “almost clsuters” - cases where there may have been H2H (turkey, Indo) or cases where people in nearby areas are coming down with the same things (certain parts of Indo recently). The other key fact for me: >60% die. Unfortuantely that fact has not changed much over time.

Green mom - just tell them TS is close HTF and they better get to Costco real soon.

LauraBat 13:19

Appologies if this is somewhere else, but do we know what the R factor was for SARS? Or better yet, other viruses that behave like influenza in that people are infecting others more often BEFORE they know they are sick vs AFTER (eg SARS, Ebola). I’m just curious what theose figures look like and how health officials reacted to them.

INFOMASS – at 13:36

As Greenmom suggests, we should try to think of other explanations for Lugon’s logical and well presented results. One is more sick domestic birds living close to humans. Another is a mammalian source for which the efficiency of transmission (and maybe proximity to people?) is higher. A third (least desirable) is that the virus is “evolving” towards an R0 higher than 1.0. Note that all three could be happening together. Greenmom, tell the dentist that if it goes to 5, he may want to shut down his practice for a while. If it goes to 6, he may not want to leave his house much. Lugon, I do not know how you could squeeze much more out of the data. If you didn’t torture them, they certainly were roughly (but fairly) handled.

JV – at 13:58

Green Mom at 12:59 -

You asked the question that if WHO goes to 4, “ Will borders close? Will school shut down? Will food prices skyrocket? Will anyone outside the flu community even notice?”

When everyone on Fluwiki was wondering a week or so ago about whether WHO had, or was planning, to go to level 4, I asked this question to someone at a high level of planning/knowledge. The response I got was no, and, if or when they do go to 4, “…there will be blood on the floors of stock markets around the world.”

I do not personally know that will be the situation, and others here can debate it. But, if that is true, then yes, people outside the “flu community” will notice.

Leo7 – at 15:15

Lugon:

Your premise is sound, but as LauraB points out there could be mild cases changing the numbers. Also, I don’t know how but with the recent info of a Tamiflu blanket used in India, and the thousands of dengue cases, it’s possible the numbers are really higher,but we can’t prove them.

Reconscout – at 15:21

LauraB-at 13:17,The question about mild or asympomatic infections was addressed by Dr Osterholm last April.He said that there were six studies involving over 5,000 people from Indonesia,Vietnam,and Hong Kong who had close contacts with H5N1 victums.Less than one in a thousand had evidence of a mild infection.Dr Osterholm said he was confident that the real mortality rates are close to those reported based on this.The huge CFR`s are a very big graveyard to try and whistle past.

stillwaggon – at 15:22

I just watched a webcast of a Grand Rounds presentation by Dr. Darell Trampel, Extension Poultry Veterinarian and Poultry Diagnostician in the Iowa State University Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory given through www.prepareiowa.com. His slides were available at the course website, though it is necessary to be registered (free) for the course. [Their live webcast courses are usually available by video streaming shortly after the webcast.]

Dr. Trampel gave a detailed presentation on flu science, the history of H5N1, etc. At the end of the presentation, someone asked when the virus is likely to arrive in the U.S. He responded that “it is still IF not WHEN”. He said that a migratory bird virus is slow to be transferred between Eastern and Western hemispheres.

I’m a dyed-in-the-wool pessimist, so I failed to be cheered by his optimism. However, there was much interesting information in his talk, e.g., longer survival of the virus in colder than in temperate water, survival in frozen poultry products (some of which are smuggled into the U.S.), fecal dust on feathers (at least once the cause of a human death), transport of “vagrant”, not migratory, birds from West Africa to Western hemisphere by tropical storms. Some of this country’s trading partners, notably Mexico, have already banned the import of U.S. poultry because of the low path H5N1 found in wildfowl.

Bird Guano – at 15:45

LauraB – at 13:17

The big hole (okay, a gapping, glaring, crater) is how many people (if any at all) either had mild symptoms or none at all? It may be doing more H2H transmissions than we know about because people don’t get that sick. However, in the absence of that data, it does seem that there is a clear rise in the number of what I call “almost clsuters” - cases where there may have been H2H (turkey, Indo) or cases where people in nearby areas are coming down with the same things (certain parts of Indo recently).


I thought that hole was plugged in Turkey when the results came back as NO asymptomatic carriers ?

I’ll have to dig back for a URL, but I remember it clearly.

Commonground – at 16:00

stillwaggon - at 15:52, I posted this in yesterday’s news thread. AnnieB included it in today’s summary:

Migration and spread of H5N1 virus (link http://tinyurl.com/ylw2x8)

I noticed that the clusters Lugon used are all through WHO. We have some that never got to WHO. Wouldn’t call them clusters, but cases within a geographical area in Indonesia. That is the change we are seeing. It’s not like the Karo cluster. More spread out now.

Leo7 – at 16:21

Moeb posted an article in the news thread a doctor in Vietnam is interviewed. He said they wonder about the poultry workers, why didn’t they show symptoms? After they found the antibodies in the blood of the recovered victims they did animal tests and the antibodies were protective. Now, they want to test the blood of the poultry workers to see if the antibodies are present. So, I think now that they know what to look for they will perform more of these type tests trying to determine the percentage of mild or non—symptomatic flu. To be honest, I’ve always believed there had to be a mild or asymptomatic sub group. If they don’t test, we’ll never know.

Tink – at 16:26

JV 13:58 With that kind of immoral thinking, what impetus will spur WHO to ever post stage 4? I guess I first see a complete breakdown of society and its structures, then WHO will feel comfortable upping it to a 4. With the economy at the top of the list, they have got everything to lose and nothing to gain by ever posting 4, right?

Tom DVM – at 18:45

Hi everyone. In a sense it is bad news both ways. However, I believe the news is far worse if we start to see identified asymptomatic infections. Asymptomatic infections allow many passages through humans and the more passages the greater chance of selective adaption and mutation. There is nothing good about this.

At the moment, H5N1 has a very high kill rate but still must be acknowledged as a foreign virus poorly acclimated to humans.

Either way, I believe all required mutations are going to occur at once (astounding the experts one last time) and the pandemic virus is going to pop up…either scenario above would be a factor in respect to timing, with widespread asymptomatic infections pointing to a pandemic far sooner in my opinion.

Edna Mode – at 19:00

Tink – at 16:26 JV 13:58 With that kind of immoral thinking, what impetus will spur WHO to ever post stage 4? I guess I first see a complete breakdown of society and its structures, then WHO will feel comfortable upping it to a 4. With the economy at the top of the list, they have got everything to lose and nothing to gain by ever posting 4, right?

Correct, Tink. The world economy will shudder very meaningfully when phase 4 is announced. Whether it recovers from shudder or proceeds on to crash will depend on how quickly we move from phase 4 to 5 and then 6. It is possible that phase 4 could last long enough to allow markets to adjust to the “new normal.” However, given the fact that we should already be at phase 4, I am skeptical that H5N1 will grant us much of a furlough between phase changes.

Watching in Texas – at 19:02

Tom - are you watching the five thousand plus cases under surveillance in Thailand? AnnieB posted a story in yesterday’s news thread. I just checked the Ministry of Public Health site for Thailand and there is not an update for today yet. This, combined with the Reuters story about the Fujian strain of H5N1, which mentions cases in Thailand, has certainly gotten my attention today. I would appreciate your opinion on this:)

JV – at 19:03

Tink at 16:26 -

Re WHO:

“With the economy at the top of the list, they have got everything to lose and nothing to gain by ever posting 4, right?”

That may be exactly their problem!

moeb – at 19:07

jeez puppies eat alot A WHOLE LOT! meanwhile I don’t believe there are any significant quantity of asymptomatic infections, since this is a holy grail in regards to H5N1. If they existed they’d have been found by now.

moeb – at 19:13

what? that defies expectations? a lot of things about H5N1 defy expectations. lately I’m wondering if there will be time for members here to come together in various groups. or will it be, that the idea will take too long in the forming then moving to action and pandemic will be upon us?

FloridaGirlat 20:39

lugon – at 08:17

It appears you did a lot of work figuring that out. I do not have time to look at this right now, but maybe I can help…

Go to the large file commincation project and download the excel document I made when I was doing research for individuals (and clusters). The name of the file is “Individuals info for graphs” or something like that.

It has several pages of information, and should be relatively easy for you to figure out. I think you are frustrated like I was in the fact that the WHO data is not complete. This is one reason why I did the individuals like I did. I will be updating the cluster page in November when I have more time.

I have listed the source for the individual, the onset date of Symptoms, (& other dates). I have also listed comments to the very right of the row, if I found something that didn’t fit. It is also color coded by month. and color coded by cluster…. I should add the colors are there only to highlight and to separate…. no other reason. I may have a later version, but it does not have many differences, but I will be happy to ask dude to post it if you wish. Sometimes, the onset date of symptoms was not known, but I used the WHO methodology to determine an onset date. (These are listed in orange font).

The entire methodology is also listed at the top of the pages….

Some information was taken from studies, promed, and other sources, but they are clearly identified. I am quite sure, if I had more time, I would have located more cases, from more sources that could be validated.

Let me know if you have any questions….

Monotreme – at 21:15

lugon, TomDVM and Infomass,

Here’s what I think, fwiw. Some people get infected directly by birds which has a very low R0, say .1. However, other people get infected from a mammal with a much higer R0 say, 0.5. There are many infected birds but a relatively small number of infected mammals. The bird form is very difficult to get in spite of close and repeated contact. Poultry workers have been examined. They are almost never infected. Meanwhile, many people with only very limited exposure to birds have been infected. My subjective impression is that the mammalian form is still under selection and actively evolving for more efficient transmission. Humans are mammals and are hence more susceptible to this form than the avian form. However, it may be that efficient transmission in the mammalian reservoir, whatever that is, may still not result in a R0 greater than 1 in humans, at least not until the winter. And this is the other issue that is not often appreciated. R0 doesn’t just depend on the genetics of the virus. It also depends on the environment. It’s possible that an H5N1 strain that is capable of efficient and sustained H2H already exists, but will not become apparent until the right environmental conditions occur, ie, winter. Perhaps a strain with a current R0 of .5 will jump to 1.1 under winter conditions. After that is acheived, H5N1 will come under full selection in humans and we can expect the R0 to increase further.

We don’t know whether a strain of H5N1 already exists that has the ability to cause a pandemic in the winter, but it’s possible. If so, there is no reason to expect a decrease in CFR from it’s current level. On the contrary, I would expect the CFR to go up, not down. There is no reason for the CFR to drop until after the first or second waves have worked their way through the human population.

moeb – at 21:20

wild but I also think the CFR could go up when the pandemic hits

Monotreme – at 21:21

A further thought. Perhaps we should regard the conditions that led to the Karo cluster as an artificial winter. People were in close contact in a small room with poor ventiliation. Perhaps this facilitated H2H transmission which in turn facilitated rapid evolution of the virus to a more easily transmitted form. Fortunately, it was summer and the specific conditions that occurred during most of the transmissions in the Karo cluster did not occur more widely. In addition, it is possible that the Tamiflu blanket was also helpful. If this is the case, then an efficiently transmitted virus strain already exists, just waiting for the right conditions to occur again, ie, winter.

Perhaps this is what Dr. Nabarro meant by “God’s time”.

Monotreme – at 21:33

moeb – at 21:20

Not wild at all. This is standard viral evolution. Most viruses become more lethal to their victims as they become better adapted, not less. The statement that H5N1 *must* decrease it’s lethality as it adapts to humans is sheer balderdash. I don’t know of any precedent for this strange statement, other than wishful thinking.

Here is experimental proof that flu A becomes more lethal as it adapts to a new host:

The genetic basis for virulence in influenza virus is largely unknown. To explore the mutational basis for increased virulence in the lung, the H3N2 prototype clinical isolate, A/HK/1/68, was adapted to the mouse. Genomic sequencing provided the first demonstration, to our knowledge, that a group of 11 mutations can convert an avirulent virus to a virulent variant that can kill at a minimal dose. Thirteen of the 14 amino acid substitutions (93%) detected among clonal isolates were likely instrumental in adaptation because of their positive selection, location in functional regions, and/or independent occurrence in other virulent influenza viruses. Mutations in virulent variants repeatedly involved nuclear localization signals and sites of protein and RNA interaction, implicating them as novel modulators of virulence. Mouse-adapted variants with the same hemagglutinin mutations possessed different pH optima of fusion, indicating that fusion activity of hemagglutinin can be modulated by other viral genes. Experimental adaptation resulted in the selection of three mutations that were in common with the virulent human H5N1 isolate A/HK/156/97 and that may be instrumental in its extreme virulence. Analysis of viral adaptation by serial passage appears to provide the identification of biologically relevant mutations.

and

Adaptation of human influenza virus to mice by serial passage results in the selection of highly virulent variants that have acquired mutations in multiple genes

From:

Pattern of mutation in the genome of influenza A virus on adaptation to increased virulence in the mouse lung: Identification of functional themes

The fact that H5N1 is already highly lethal to humans is proof that it is already largely adpated to humans, not the converse as the soothers would say. I have come to the conclusion that the soothers are largely innocent of any knowledge of virology whatsoever.

moeb – at 21:44

they of course hang there hope on natural selection and the idea that the virus will die off it kills it’s hosts to quickly. you know

any thoughts on less lethality over time (once it’s become adapted)?

moeb – at 21:53

I am tempted to read the link since you suggest that increase in virulence is a given in test after test using H3N2 and point out the resemblance in H5N1. I gather I base my supposition on what it does to chickens. It kills em all and keeps on ticking. I don’t see yet, why it won’t do that in us.

where do you stand on forming groups? are you going to SIP solo (with family) or do you see a local group forming?

anonymous – at 21:58

monotreme, if H5N1 reassorts with H3N2 then there is reason to assume that the CFR would go down. And the CFR also went down during the 2nd wave in 1918. Even Osterholm assumes that the CFR would go down in a pandemic. No flu-pandemic in human history is known with a CFR as high as actually. How can H5N1 be highly adapted to humans, when it always dies after a few generations of human infection ? The changes can only be conserved, when they are transmitted to other hosts.

Monotreme – at 22:09

moeb – at 21:44

they of course hang there hope on natural selection and the idea that the virus will die off it kills it’s hosts to quickly.

And I know you know that this demonstrates a shocking ignorance of natural selection and flu biology. For those who haven’t heard the obvious response to this point, here it is: Flu viruses are transmitted before patients become sick. Even H5N1 patients who are doomed to gruesome death are out and about spreading virus for days before their symptoms impair their mobility. Hence there is no selective pressure for the virus to decrease it’s lethality. The ultimate fate of the original host has no effect on the spread of flu.

any thoughts on less lethality over time (once it’s become adapted)?

I used to think this was a sure thing. After the first or second wave, attempts to evade the human immune system have resulted in milder strains of flu in the past. This is because the polymerase genes which are responsible for viral replication can be recognized by the immune system of someone who was infected before. Immune system evasion is now under intense selection. The result seems to be a polymerase that is not recognized by the immune system but which does not work as well resulting in slower replication, lower viral load, and lower pathogenicity.

However, there is evidence that multiple genetic strains of H5N1 are evolving in China. I don’t what the heck is going on over there, but the Chinese are doing *something* that is causing unprecedented, incredibly rapid proliferation of novel viruses. It is now possible that even if you survive one strain of H5N1 another may come along in 2 years which your immune system does not recognize putting you at the same risk as someone who was never exposed to any H5N1 strains. This would be the true worst case scenario, which even I have not dared contemplate for very long.

References

Establishment of multiple sublineages of H5N1 influenza virus in Asia: Implications for pandemic control

Pandemic Influenza: Risk of Multiple Introductions and the Need to Prepare for Them

Tom DVM – at 22:10

anonymous.

“No flu-pandemic in human history is known with a CFR as high as actually” We have a very small data set. The CFR estimates etc. for 1918 have fluctuated what best could be described as widely. We know little about 1890 and 1830 other than they were similar in virulence to the 1918 strain. The only pandemics that we have reasonable numbers for are 1957 and 1968. I do not believe you can make the conclusion you do in the statement.

‘ if H5N1 reassorts with H3N2 then there is reason to assume that the CFR would go down’ This could very well be true but why would a ‘kissing cousin’ of 1918 bother to reassort when it is perfectly capable of doing it by mutation directly…and maintain present CFR’s or according to Monotreme, possibly increase CFR. The only way your above scenario works is if we have multiple pandemics in the next fifteen years which I think is most likely anyway.

The CFR in 1918 was artificially low because the first wave provided partial immunity to the second wave…and the first and second waves provided partial immunity to the third wave etc. If the first wave of the imminent pandemic is virulent, all bets are off as to CFR’s.

‘The changes can only be conserved, when they are transmitted to other hosts.’ Not according to Dr. Taubunburgher…the avian virus did it unaided.

‘How can H5N1 be highly adapted to humans, when it always dies after a few generations of human infection ?’ Past performance is not a measure of future behavior in a fast mutating, fast evolving influenza’s.

LMWatBullRunat 22:13

The problem is that influenza A has the rather nasty tendency to shed virus for several days even before the infected person falls seriously ill, and for several days afterwards. It’s ultimate lethality matters little once the virus has spread. Over the short term. Longer term, lethality may decrease and morbidity may increase, assuming that there are still hosts…

Wolf – at 22:15

This is some bug.

moeb – at 22:18

I think any fool could see the Chinese thing coming… you mask a problem you shouldn’t be surprised if it keeps bubbling underneath. What comes at me out of it all is that first and foremost… no vaccine for six months (nothing new there) but with subsequent vaccine production combining yet new variants. Much like today but with severe consequences due to CFR.

in a nut shell we’re worse off and all the vaccine work to date is mostly beneficial from an infrastructure and experimentation basis only

Monotreme – at 22:19

moeb – at 21:53

I gather I base my supposition on what it does to chickens. It kills em all and keeps on ticking. I don’t see yet, why it won’t do that in us.

Yep.

where do you stand on forming groups? are you going to SIP solo (with family) or do you see a local group forming?

My state/city seems to be taking prepping pretty seriously. Unusual, I know. It also has alot of geographical advantages. However, I am working on an alternative location in case I decide the planning is not sufficient for the challenge. I haven’t decided where yet, though I have some candidates. Based on Jumping Jack Flash’s suggestions, I’m looking at small towns with hydroelectric power plants located nearby. Google search “hydroelectric” plus GoogleMaps are useful tools.

Tom DVM – at 22:20

“I don’t what the heck is going on over there, but the Chinese are doing *something* that is causing unprecedented, incredibly rapid proliferation of novel viruses.” Monotreme

Recipe: take HUGE numbers of poultry + HUGE numbers of pigs + HUGE numbers of humans…pile them one on top of another at the interface between domestic animals and wild animals…let them incubate for a while…

…then add antivirals to the animal feeds and vaccinate only a portion of the poultry flocks and pigs…

…end result - China Flu.

DennisCat 22:24

on high CFR- remember that smallpox (virus but not flu) had a CFR of 25% up to 80% when it was first introducted to the Aztecs and Incas-

“1521…smallpox devastated the Aztec population. It killed most of the Aztec army, the emperor, and 25% of the overall population…….. The Spaniards said that they could not walk through the streets without stepping on the bodies of smallpox victims….

Within a few years smallpox claimed between 60% and 90% of the Inca population, ….”

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox

The point being- viruses can have a high CFR within a given population.

moeb – at 22:25

I have a theory: if you follow this problem enough certain things become obvious as you move along. Grouping is coming.

moeb – at 22:27

I would have named my two new puppies “pan” and “demic” but I would have never wanted to call them to come’r

Tom DVM – at 22:33

Dennis C. I would also say that if this virus is only going to affect 25% of the population then a pharmaceutical company must have come up with a recipe for ‘fairy dust’ that protects the rest.

Smallpox demonstrated that the attack rate without immunity was between 85–95%.

The funny thing is that that my friends at the WHO quote these figures but then do not follow up with an understandable ethical scientific explanation…

…a wonderful combination…acting with impunity and immune from prosecution.

moeb – at 22:35

as I understand it there are now three distinct strains of H5N1? with several sub clades? (if you can’t tell by now I only pretend to be really really smart)

JWB – at 22:37

Thanks to all to what I have been personally struggling to articulate.

The CFR means nothing to the virus. I see viruses in the same context of a chemical reaction, similiar to fire. A fire doesn’t know or care what it’s doing, and it doesn’t have any kind of ‘communication’ with another fire.

What is key, or rather what is unique in our present society is our travel/interactions to each other. Yes, in 1918 a R0 factor is key. You can contain it or it will burn out out. That doesn’t apply IMHO today.

When this gets legs it will explode.

(sorry for no spell check,l I’m tired in in a hurry)

Wonderer – at 22:42

Small pox is what I thought of when I first started considering the possible calamity produced by the China flu. I think all of our planning is for naught. There are too many things working against us. The unwillingness to come clean by the Who and others, the use of less than adequate vaccines in China and our lack of foresight in ensuring adequate vaccine production. I’m starting to lose hope.

Monotreme – at 22:47

moeb – at 22:25

I have a theory: if you follow this problem enough certain things become obvious as you move along. Grouping is coming.

Well, if there was time, we could found a new town - “Flubiobia”. The city would get power from hydro or wind farms, every house would be have as much solar collecting power as possible. It would be located near a source of fresh water and good arable land and not near any megacities. The citizery would be flubies and sustainable living advocates. It would be structured like Main Street USA (in Walt Disney World) - a diverse group of shops with apartments above them for young adults and empty nesters. Family homes would be within walking/biking distance. The homes would have big front porches and wide sidewalks to encourage social interactions between neighbors. There would be a small but good library, a small community center and perhaps even a bandstand.

Yeah, I’ve been day-dreaming too much.

DennisCat 22:47

Tom DVM

WHO has selective memory and has been saying things like there could never be a pandemic with a CFR as high as 60%. But history shows that it is very possible. I don’t know why they don’t admit it.

I would be thankful if it does drop to 25% CFR. When I run my numbers I usually pick 30–35% “out of the hat”. I think we were lucky in Turkey, but it did show what is possible.

Did you notice the list of birds in the “new strain report”?-

to wit:”Most isolates are from ducks and geese, but many wild birds from Hong Kong (common magpie, crow, large-billed crow, white-backed munia, munia, Japanese white-eye, little egret, crested myna, and robin).”

those with Sparrows,ducks, chickens, geese,… are becoming a big list.

Notice the robin.

DennisCat 22:50

Monotreme – at 22:47 “we could found a new town “

did you live in a commune in the 60′s?

Betty – at 22:52

What a dork!! That’s toooo funny :)

Betty – at 22:54

Sorry…I meant that for Moeb’s comments about the dogs…I read slower than the rest of you I guess

Wonderer – at 22:55

Stephen Hawking had it right when he said that we should be putting research into colonizing space. We seem to have run our course on planet earth…at least in this phase. After reading the rumors thread, I’m in a state of depression that’s just not healthy. It’s like I’m leading parallel lives here. I see what’s coming and yet everyone around me seems oblivious.

Monotreme – at 22:57

DennisC – at 22:50

did you live in a commune in the 60′s?

Nope. And I’m well aware that almost all attempts at communal living have failed. The only such experiment that ever succeeded, for a time, was the Shakers. Unfortunately, they prohibited procreation which tended to slow down additions to their communities ;-)

Although my daydream does not require communal living, it is probably not practical because it would take very few non-conformists to ruin my sustainable living paradise. Sometimes hippies give birth to cigar-chomping, red meat eating, Humvee driving, bambi shooting, uh, non-sustainable living advocates. And what are you going to do with them, run them out of town when they turn 18?

Betty – at 22:59

Monotreme, I LOVE the sound of your “make believe” town. It’s just the kind to suite me!

DennisCat 23:05

Monotreme..run them out of town

it sounds good but….what do we do to the ducks on the pond, the robins and sparrows in the yard, the cats and dogs,… and do we keep the schools open? :)

KimTat 23:07

Can’t I go away for almost two days without hearing about the HuChina Flu. My solar plexus started bothering me around 2:30 central time but I wasn’t able to get on until after 9.

Monotreme – at 22:47 I like your vision!

Olymom – at 23:09

In my fantasy town, I’d get to pick the personalities (kids too) — had one of our offspring attend an alternative school for two years (second and third grade — a fabulous alternative to ritalin for a boy who just needed a little more time) — anyway, everybody there wanted the best for the kids — but “best” meant long discussions on whether raisins were a good snack or did they have to be organic raisins to qualify as “good” (God forbid a kid ever injest a HoHo) — it was a bit much a times.

JWB – at 23:19

Wonderer – at 22:55

Welcome aboard !

moeb – at 23:25

dork? I resemble that remark

Wonderer – at 23:31

JWB, I’ve been around a while. I read a lot and post a little. The news of the last few days has me a bit down. The news about the new strain out of China was the real kicker.

JWB – at 23:35

Wonderer – at 22:55

It’s like I’m leading parallel lives here. I see what’s coming and yet everyone around me seems oblivious.


You have lots of company. It’s amazing.

Monotreme – at 23:35

DennisC – at 23:05

it sounds good but….what do we do to the ducks on the pond, the robins and sparrows in the yard, the cats and dogs,… and do we keep the schools open? :)

Well, in my fantasy, we would teach kids not touch birds. We might have to ban cats for a while, sorry. Dogs, gotta find some way to keep them ;-). The town scientists would also be working on safe and effective vaccines :)

Of course we would all agree to close schools and SIP, if necessary, but this would be an “escape” community, so no human sources of infection would be possible. It would be as hard to find as Shangri-La, (and probably as realistic).

Leo7 – at 23:42

Flu sleuths:

I hope that the picture being painted is wrong. You’re discussing Darwinian survival here at the gene pool level not the prep level. Pandemic after pandemic there will be no health care let alone health care workers left. Basically, if you’re going to let it hang out-then hang it. People with chronic health problems are goners as much as young kids or teens and tweens. If you can’t walk a mile without getting out of breath—same thing. The viral wave being projected will drown everybody. What have I left out?

Oh-If there have been mild cases, then the antibodies produced might save us from cursing our long dead ancestors. I see mild cases as providing the first gate response.

31 October 2006

disgruntled – at 00:01

“Monotreme – at 21:15

lugon, TomDVM and Infomass,

Here’s what I think, fwiw. Some people get infected directly by birds which has a very low R0, say .1. However, other people get infected from a mammal with a much higer R0 say, 0.5. There are many infected birds but a relatively small number of infected mammals. The bird form is very difficult to get in spite of close and repeated contact. Poultry workers have been examined. They are almost never infected. ____

Except that the polybasic cleavage site is DIFFERENT between the chickens and the people. The poultry workers are not infected because people aren’t getting it from poultry anymore. The human strains are pretty much all alike, and have the Qinghai cleavage, and this is NOT what the birds have. This whole line of reasoning needs to be coordinated with the actual DATA.

DennisCat 00:03

Leo7 – at 23:42

“If there have been mild cases, then the antibodies produced might save us “

remember the news back in mid Sept:

“S. Korea confirms additional human bird flu contamination SEOUL, Sept. 15 (Yonhap) — South Korea’s disease control agency confirmed Friday that five people have developed antibodies to the lethal H5N1 strain of bird flu after taking part in the slaughtering and disposal of infected chickens and ducks.

The five people tested positive for bird flu antibodies, but none of them have shown symptoms of the disease as defined by the World Health Organization (WHO), the Korea Center for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) said. “

http://tinyurl.com/lwdod

Green Mom – at 01:17

Monotreme- a BIG library- “A Great City deserves a great library”

Wonderer-don’t lose hope- its pretty grim, I know, and I’m probably not sleeping tonight (again!) Theres this-I saw a program on Discovery Health Channel tonight on the Black Plague-a little light entertainment to cheer myself up. I had read this before, but it was kinda neat seeing it on tv-anyway, the plague was devistating but it didn’t kill as many people as it “Should” of-why? Viriologists and historians suspect that some people have genes that made them immune to plague, and not only that, but plague survivers decendants who carry those cenes seem to be immune to HIV/AIDS. Nature has all kinds of surprises-some particuarly nasty, but others astonishing. We just don’t know.

Betty – at 02:15

Moeb…I use the word “dork” to describe people who are funny and whom I like (I fancy myself a dork)…I just want to make sure you know it’s a good “word” in my vocab. I know that’s odd, but I am odd, I guess. And I love it when I get a good laugh on here. Kind of takes some of the tension off.

moeb – at 07:08

yes Betty (gives you a stern look) the term for you would be dorkette (smiles)

moeb – at 07:19

one of these days, I’m afraid my humor will need to dry up and I’ll have to act deadly serious, damn it anyway

FrenchieGirlat 10:08

With reference to my post at the top of the thread FrenchieGirl – at 13:23 I was in London (UK) during a winter in the early nineties when a particular bad seasonal flu hit the population….

Eurosurveillance has just published (October 2006) a report entitled: “Surveillance of influenza-like illness in England and Wales during 1966–2006″ which confirms what I was saying above: the winter flu season 1989–1990 was particularly bad then, with the worst peak in infuenza-like-illness (ILI) in the previous 13 seasons. In the discussion part of this report, I quote the following:

more

blam – at 13:58

Reconscout….That info is contained in this article:<p><a href=http://citypages.com/databank/27/1320/article14219.asp> This Thing Just Continues To March</a>

Closed and Continued - Bronco Bill – at 14:06

Closed for length and continued here

Last relevants posts copied to new thread

lugon – at 14:38

Frenchiegirl refers to http://www.eurosurveillance.org/em/v11n10/1110-224.asp

This should be “readable” by public health officers, no?

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.ACurrentThreatAssessmentX
Page last modified on October 31, 2006, at 02:38 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Recipes Using Canned Dry Foods Only Part IX

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Recipes Using Canned Dry Foods Only Part IX

02 October 2006

Kathy in FL – at 14:17

The last thread was getting very long so I thought I would start the next one here.

Previous thread available Here.

Kathy in FL – at 14:19

Here’s another easy snack.

Cow Pies

In a double boiler over simmering water, melt chocolate chips and shortening, stirring until smooth. Remove from heat. Stir in raisins and almonds. Drop by tablespoonfuls onto waxed paper. Chill till ready to serve

Kathy in FL – at 14:20

This is a recipe that you “use what you have.”

Green Tomato Pie

In a bowl, combine sugar, flour, cinnamon and salt. Add tomatoes and vinegar; toss to mix. Line a pie plate with bottom crust. Add filling; dot with butter. Top with a lattice crust. Bake at 350° for 1 hour or until tomatoes are tender. Makes 6 to 8 servings.

Kathy in FL – at 14:23

SOUTHERN CANTALOUPE COBBLER

Place the cut up melon in a casserole dish. Combine all other ingredients, mixing well. Pour over melon. Place in 350 degree oven for 45 minutes-1 hour. Can also be cooked in a dutch oven over a fire.

Note: This recipe can be used with any resh fruit or large can of fruit of choice.

Mods please delete – at 14:41

Kathy in FL

Thanks for all the recipes! I feel it is now crunch time, so I’ve been saving your recipes to a flash drive.

I have a question. First I searched the Forums and got a gazillion hits, and I don’t want to start another thread.

Where can I buy powdered eggs? And has anybody made “just eggs” from it? Do they still taste like eggs? Thanks!

JWB – at 14:46

Don’t delete!

I’ve got the ID ten T virus in my brain today!

Sorry!

Hillbilly Bill – at 14:54

“Where can I buy powdered eggs? And has anybody made “just eggs” from it? Do they still taste like eggs? Thanks!”

Honeyville Grain

Nope, they don’t taste like eggs just by themself, but they are better when made into in an omelet. They work great in mixes when baking.

JWB – at 15:14

Thanks HH!

I had no idea that they are so inexpensive! and just 1 can = 170 eggs!

Thanks for link and the omelet suggestion!

Oh by the way, for those of you who aren’t familiar with the ID ten T virus that I mentioned above you should be. I’m sure you all of had it at some time!

ID ten T virus =

ID 10 T virus =

ID10T

I suffer from it mostly when I’m awake! 8-D

JWB – at 15:24

JWB – at 15:14 Thanks HH!


I mean Thanks HB!

8-D

04 October 2006

Kathy in FL – at 10:58

Quick Onion Biscuits

Tips:

Kathy in FL – at 10:59

7-Up Buttermilk Biscuits

[The soda is what gives the biscuits “lift.”]

Preparation: Mix together 7 up, buttermilk, bisquick to smooth dough. Dip hand into just enough more bisquick you can knead dough in bowl till smooth and elastic. Shape dough into 6 patties of equal size, 1″ thick & place 1 patty in center of a greased 9″ round layer pan. Arrange the other patties around that. Wipe tops of each in a dab of margarine or margarine. Bake at 450F (very hot oven) 18 to 20 minutes or till triple in size & golden bown. Cool in pan 10 minutes before serving. Makes 6 flakey biscuits.

05 October 2006

Kathy in FL – at 10:28

Baked Bean Tacos

In skillet, combine taco seasoning mix and BUSH’S Baked Beans. Bring to a boil and simmer for 8 to 10 minutes or until thoroughly heated. Spoon bean mixture into taco shells. Top with favorite toppings.

Kathy in FL – at 10:30

Baked Butter Beans

Drain Large Butter Beans, reserving the liquid. Set both aside. Cook bacon until crisp; drain and crumble. Leave one tablespoon of the bacon fat in the pan and in it cook the onion until soft, about 5 minutes. Combine Large Butter Beans, crumbled bacon, onion, seasonings and 1/4 cup liquid drained from beans. Put all in a small greased casserole. Bake uncovered 30 minutes in a 350° oven. If beans become dry, add some of the reserved liquid.

Kathy in FL – at 10:31

Baked Lima Cheese Crunch

In a skillet, cook onion in oil until tender. Drain beans, reserving 1/2 cup liquid. In a lightly-greased 1 1/2-quart casserole, combine beans, reserved liquid, 1/2 cup cheese, onion, mayonnaise and pepper. Spread remaining cheese over bean mixture; top with cracker crumbs. Bake at 350 for 25 to 30 minutes or until bubbly.

Kathy in FL – at 10:32

Barbecue Bean and Pineapple Pizza

Heat oven to 425°. Place crust on large baking sheet. Spread with beans to within 1/2 inch of sides. Combine cheese and oregano. Sprinkle half cup of cheese over beans. Arrange pineapple and pepper on top. Sprinkle with remaining cheese. Bake 11 to 13 minutes or until shell is crisp and cheese is melted. Remove to cutting board. Make three cuts lengthwise and three cuts crosswise.

Kathy in FL – at 10:34

Bean Casserole Au Gratin

Preheat oven to 375. Prepare macaroni and cheese mix according to package directions. Combine cooked macaroni with Baked Beans, ham and mustard. Spoon into lightly greased 2-quart baking dish. Top with cheese and bread crumbs. Bake at 375 for 25 minutes, or until bubbly golden brown.

Kathy in FL – at 10:38

Black Bean Veggie Burgers

Place beans in food processor; process until fairly smooth. Add flour, cornmeal, salsa, cumin and garlic salt. Process until well combined. Spoon mixture into 6 balls on a large plate and refrigerate at least 1 hour or up to 4 hours before cooking.

Heat barbecue grill or ridged grill pan over medium heat. Coat grill or pan lightly with oil. Form each ball into a 4-inch patty about 1/2-inch thick. Place the patties on the grill or in pan and cook until browned and heated through, 4 to 5 minutes per side.

Serve on hamburger buns with your favorite toppings.

06 October 2006

Suzyinaz – at 16:02

Russian Spice Tea:

                       Preparation:

Combine all ingredients in large container and mix well.

To serve, use 2 to 3 teaspoons of mix per cup and add hot/boiling water

Suzyinaz – at 16:07
 Winter Solstice Tea Mix 
 Label Container and store for use.
 Put 1 to 2 teaspoons into a cup or mug. Fill with boiling water and stir
 for a wonderful Winter’s day treat. 
Suzyinaz – at 16:12

Almond Lemon Tea

Ingredients:

Boil the water with the lemon zest for 4 minutes or so, add the tea bags and take off the heat-brew for 5 minutes. Stir in the sugar, lemon juice, almond and vanilla extract. Serve immediately.

Note: I have also put this in refrigerator and served cold.

Suzyinaz – at 16:25

INSTANT HOT COCOA MIX

Sift all ingredients and mix together. Use a large container such as the big plastic jar that Pretzels come in at Costco or a very large pot, but I recommend something with a lid as this has a tendency to be powdery and seems to whisp around in the air. Or just make half a batch and use anything with a lid. This has been a family favorite at our home for years.

Store in a tightly covered container.

To Use - Fill mug/cup 1/3 full, fill with boiling water.

Makes 40 servings Approx.

Suzyinaz – at 17:11

LEMON MIX Makes 4 Cups

Mix well. Store in an airtight container. Label and store in cool, dry place. Use within 6 to 8 months.

                    Hot Lemon Sauce

Combine 1 cup water and 1/4 cup Lemon Mix in a small saucepan.

Bring to a boil, stirring constantly. Remove from heat.

Add 2 tablespoons butter. Serve warm over gingerbread, pound cake,

apple pie or other desserts

                         Luscious Lemon Pie

In a large saucepan combine 1 1/4 cups Lemon Mix, 1/2 cup water and

3 egg yolks. Mix until smooth. Add 2 more cups water. Cook over medium

heat until thick and bubbly; stir constantly. Remove from heat.

Add 2 tablespoons butter. Cover and let cool for 5 minutes. Stir and

pour into baked pie crust. Cover and refrigerate for 3 hours.

Top with whipped cream or meringue.

Suzyinaz – at 17:58

LAZY DAY COBBLER 350 DEGREES

MELT BUTTER IN BAKING DISH, 8X8 OR 9X9. MIX THE REST OF INGREDIENTS EXCEPT FRUIT. POUR BATTER OVER TOP OF BUTTER (DO NOT MIX).

THEN POUR FRUIT & JUICE ON TOP OF THAT- AGAIN DO NOT MIX! TRY TO DROP FRUIT EVENLY OVER BATTER.

BAKE AT 350 FOR 45 MIN---

SPRINKLE TOP WITH SUGAR AND BAKE 15 MINUTES MORE.

07 October 2006

Kathy in FL – at 15:48

Suzyinaz … thanks for the beverage mixes. I have several but am always looking for more for variety’s sake.

Kathy in FL – at 15:50

[Next few recipes are some of the make-your-own-convenience-mix type things.]

Blueberry Scones Mix in a Jar

Stir together the flour, sugar, milk powder, baking powder, lemon peel and salt in a large mixing bowl. Cut in shortening using pastry blender till resembles coarse crumbs. Stir in blueberries. Place in jar and add more berries if needed. Store in refrigerator up to 6 weeks or in freezer for up to 6 months.

Gift Tag Directions:

Place contents of jar in large mixing bowl. Add 1 beaten egg and 1/4 cup water, stir till moistened. Turn dough out onto a lightly floured surface and quickly knead for 12–15 strokes or till smooth. Pat 1/2 inch thickness. Cut into desired shapes with a 2–1/2 to 3 inch cutter. Dip cutter in flour between cuts. Place scones 1 inch apart on ungreased baking sheet. Brush tops with milk if desired. Bake at 400° F. for 12 - 15 minutes. Transfer to wire rack to cool slightly. Serve warm.

Kathy in FL – at 15:52

[Remember that when any recipe calls for eggs, you can use powdered eggs if you don’t have fresh. If you do plan on using powdered eggs and/or powdered milk, you can actually just add it into the rest of your dried ingredients before hand and then adjust the directions that you are placing on the jar, adding extra liquid as appropriate.]

Ginger Spice Muffin Mix in a Jar

Combine all the ingredients in a medium bowl. Store the mixture in an airtight container.

Attach this to the Jar

Ginger Spice Muffins (Makes 1 dozen)

Preheat the oven to 400°F. Grease 12 muffin tins. In a large bowl, combine the muffin mix with the butter, egg, vanilla and milk Stir the mixture until the ingredients are blended. Do not overmix. The batter will be lumpy. Fill muffin tins 2/3 full, and bake for 15 minutes.

Kathy in FL – at 15:53

Apple Muffins Mix in a Jar

Mix: Combine and store in an airtight container.

Attach this to the Jar:

Apple Muffins

Preheat oven to 400° F. Mix all ingredients just until moistened. Fill greased muffin cups 3/4 full.

Bake 15–18 minutes, or until golden brown.

Kathy in FL – at 15:54

Pecan Pie Muffin Mix

Give with tag:

Cooking instructions:

Preheat oven to 350. Combine all ingredients in mixing bowl; stir til blended. Fill greased mini-muffin tins half full (approx.1 Tablespoon) Bake for 12–15 minutes. Makes 36 mini-muffins. Note: You may use regular sized muffin tins, but the muffins work better if baked in the mini-size. To make regular sized muffins, fill the tins 1/2 full and bake 20–25 minutes. Makes 12 muffins. This size will be a heavier muffin.

Kathy in FL – at 16:10

For those of you who are looking for canned/bottled 100% juices to supplement your fluids in your preps … or you are looking for juices to make jams and jellies with … I just found out that our local Target carries blueberry juice and pomegranate juice as a regular item.

They also have some unusual specialty sodas … blood orange, strawberry-lime, green apple, grapefruit, etc. I’m probably going to go fill a grocery cart with that later this month. I want the blueberry and pomegranate juice for canning … the sodas will be for treats during SIP, if they last that long.

Also, they’ve got some half-size silly sodas for kids right now … gruesome grape, berried alive, spider cider, and <drumroll please> candy corn. Thought these would be great distractions for the kids if necessary.

lohrewok – at 17:09

Lentil Soup

1 cup lentils 32 oz. chicken broth (I use low-sodium) 1 cup water 1 cup diced onion, celery, & carrot 1 1/2 cup ham, diced 1/2 tsp pepper, basil, oregrano 8 T tomato sauce 1/4 tsp. thyme.

Cook in crockpot over low heat 10 hours. Sometimes I add 1/2 cup of brown rice also.

lohrewok – at 17:20

Dandelion Greens

2 lbs. fresh dandelion greens,2 clove garlic, 2 T oil, salt and pepper to taste.

The small young leaves are more tender. The larger older leaves get bitter. Clean and wash the leaves. Do not eat the stems or flowers. Cut leaves in half, heat the oil and garlic in a saucepan, add the leaves, salt and pepper. Cook for about 12 minutes. If it gets dry, add a little water. Serve hot.

From Cookin with Home Storage

08 October 2006

no name – at 01:58

Miss Kathy in Flordia or any other helpful person:

How long do you have to freeze grains to kill the bugs…I know this is out there in the FW ether but I can’t find it.

Thanks in advance.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 02:14

no name – at 01:58 I think I read 3 days is enough.

lohrewok – at 08:26

I’ve read 3 days also. Then again, I’ve heard the more bulk (say 50lbs of flour) the more time needed.

Kathy in FL – at 15:37

Well, you can freeze a full 72 hours or you can use bay leaves. I do both. If I’m planning to save things in large amounts … say putting all 50 pounds of rice in one large container then I freeze. If I’m just packing 5 pound bags of flour into containers then I use the bay leaves.

I deal with a high humidity state so I try not and do anything that could cause condensation. I’ve had some bad luck trying to freeze flour and then even after letting it set for 24 to 48 hours before storing it in a container. For flour especially I tend to only use bay leaves.

Check what works best in your neck of the woods.

I’ve never had problems with my pasta after I started using bay leaves … and I’ve never frozen the pasta either.

09 October 2006

Bump – at 11:51
Northstar – at 17:42

Ok, here’s that Rajma Masala recipe, and bean-lovers, just take off your socks now because this’ll knock them straight off: (I say without a shred of modesty)

RAJMA MASALA

1 15 oz can stewed tomatoes, diced

2 15 oz cans kidney beans, drained

1/3 can 15 oz fat free refried beans

1 can 8oz tomato sauce

2 quarter sized slices of ginger root, cut into matchsticks

1/2 onion, diced fine

2 tsp red curry powder

1/4 tsp cayenne pepper

1 tsp oil (I used sesame)or more to taste, up to 1 T

Combine tomatoes, ginger matchsticks, and diced onion and simmer until onions are softened and juices reduced, about 10 minutes. Add kidney beans, refried beans, tomato sauce and spices and simmer until flavors combine, another 15 minutes or so. Serve on rice or toast.

10 October 2006

Kathy in FL – at 11:15

Pinto Bean Bread

Soften yeast in warm water. Puree cooked beans in blend until smooth. Put honey, oil, beans, and salt in a large bowl. Mix well. Add wheat flour and then white flour. Put onto floured surface, knead 10 minutes. Shape into loaves, let rise until double. Place on cookie sheet. Bake at 350 degrees F for 45 minutes.

Kathy in FL – at 11:19

Black Bean Brownies

Mix cocoa, butter, sugar, black bean puree, corn syrup, and eggs together in a bowl until well blended. Sift dry ingredients together and stir into wet mixture. Grease a 9 x 13 - inch pan with cooking spray and pour the batter into the pan. Bake 40 minutes at 350 degrees F or until done. Frost with your favorite chocolate frosting if desired.

Kathy in FL – at 11:22

Mock Pumpkin Pie

Combine all ingredients in order into mixing bowl. Bland until smooth. Pour mixture into chilled pie shell(s). Makes one 10 inch or two 8 inch pies. Bake for 10 minutes at 450 degrees F, then reduce heat to 350 degrees F and bake an additional 20 to 50 minutes or until knife inserted in pie comes out clean.

Kathy in FL – at 11:26

Pinto Bean Pie

(tastes similar to pecan)

Beat sugar, brown sugar, eggs, and butter until creamy. Add pinto beans (pureed gives the best texture); blend well. Pour into unbaked pie shell and bake at 375 degrees for 20 minutes. Reduce heat to 350 degrees and bake an additional 25 minutes or until knnife inserted in center comes out clean.

Kathy in FL – at 11:30

Oatmeal Chocochip Bean Cookies

Preheat oven to 375 degrees. Rinse cooked beans, puree in food processor until thick paste is formed. Measure one cup and cream with butter in mixer. Add eggs and mix well. Add all other ingredients. Combine thoroughly. Drop dough by rounded tablespoons onto a greased cookie sheet. Bake for 10 minutes or until golden brown. Makes about 48 cookies.

AzNewBeat 16:11
  Dried Apple Cider Pie

You get double the fruit flavor Prep: 45 min. Bake:48 min.

8 cups dried apples 3 1/2 cups apple cider or juice 1/4 cup sugar 1/2 tsp ground cinnamon 1/4 tsp nutmeg 1 apple pie pastry 1Tbsp. butter

 Bake at 400*

In sauce pan combine dried apples and cider, juice bring to boil, reduce heat to simmer covered for 15 min. Stir in sugar and spices. Simmer, uncovered for 15 min. to allow juices to thicken. Meanwhile, perpare Apple pie crust. Roll two thirds of the pastry into 12 inch circle.Transfer into 9 inch pan.Trim to 1/2 inch beyond pie plate. Fold under extra pastry. Crimp edge as desired. Add your filling, spread evenly and dot with the butter.

 Cover edge of pie with foil. Bake for 20 min. Remove foil; bake for 20 to 25 min or until pastry is golden brown and apple edges begin to brown. Cool on wire rack.
 Meanwhile, roll remaining pastry into an oval about6×4 inches. With pastry or pizza cutter, cut into 1/2 inch wide free-form shapes. Place on baking sheet and bake for 8 to 10 min or until edges brown. Arrange on top of pie before serving.

Apple Pie Pastry: In medium mixing bowl stir togethe 1 3/4 cups all purpose flour and 1/2 teaspoon salt. Use pastry blender, cut in 1/2 shortening until pieces are size of peas. Using a total of 5 to6 Tbl cold water, sprinkle 1 Tbl over part of the mixture gently toss with a fork. Push moistened dough aside. Repeat until all is moistened. form into a ball.

 I thought you all might enjoy this one. It’s a Heritage Recipe that I found awhile back.

11 October 2006

BUMP – at 08:02
ironmagnolia – at 17:02

I have a question about cooking on a gas grill. Our gas grill has a side burner, and I plan to cook on the grill/burner if the grid goes down for any length of time. How would I go about bakng? For instance, if I wanted to cook a box pizza kit, could I do this on a grill? What container would I use, do I use the burner or the grill, and how do I project cooking time? Anyone?

HillBilly Bill – at 19:19

I can offer my experience. I placed fire brick that are used for lining a wood stove on the grill surface of my gas grill. This distributed the heat from the burner evenly and kept the flames from burning the bootom of the pan of biscuits I was baking. If your gril has double burners you might be able to use a metal cookie sheet and only turn on one side. Cooking time for my biscuits was about the same (or would have been if I could have kept from opening the top to look at them. The bottoms were done more than the tops, but they were not bad at all. I need to try other items, I’m sure a pan of cornbread would come out nice, but I need to also try a loaf of bread.

Be advised it uses up your propane quicker than a propane camping oven, but for the cost of the camping oven I can get several 20lb propane tanks.

HillBilly Bill – at 19:21

ironmagnolia – at 17:02

A pizza or baking stone would work well, but I didn’t dare risk putting DW’s Pampered Chef stuff on the grill….

Bronco Bill – at 20:36

HBB --- I didn’t dare risk putting DW’s Pampered Chef stuff on the grill

I’ve run into the exact same issue!! DW told me if I wanted to bake on the grill, I need to go to my own Pampered Chef party. Hmmmph… ;-)

Kathy in FL – at 22:27

I wonder if those terracotta tiles that you can buy to put down in your patio would work the same way. I mean they have these terracotta baking dishes that you soak before you use them. I’ve also heard of people baking a loaf of bread in terracotta flower pots. Wonder of those terracotta tiles would be the same type of tool.

12 October 2006

Kathy in FL – at 10:03

VERSATILE OAT MIX

ADDITIONAL INGREDIENTS FOR OAT PANCAKES:

ADDITIONAL INGREDIENTS FOR OATMEAL MUFFINS:

ADDITIONAL INGREDIENTS FOR PEACH CRISP:

In a large bowl, combine the flour, sugars, baking powder and salt; mix well. Cut in shortening until mixture resembles fine crumbs. Stir in oats. Store in airtight containers in a cool dry place for up to 6 months. Yield: 9 cups (number of batches varies depending on recipe used).

To Prepare Pancakes: Combine 1½ cups oat mix, egg and water in a bowl; mix well. Let stand for 5 minutes. Pour by ¼ cupfuls onto a lightly greased hot griddle. Turn when bubbles form on top; cook until second side is golden brown. Yield: 10 pancakes.

To Prepare Muffins: Combine 3 cups oat mix, egg and milk in a bowl; mix well. Fill paper-lined or greased muffin cups 2/3 full. Bake at 400° for 15 to 20 minutes or until toothpick comes out clean. Cool for 5 minutes before removing from pan to a wire rack. Serve warm. Yield: 1 dozen muffins.

To Prepare Peach Crisp: Combine 2 cups oat mix and brown sugar in a bowl and mix well. Pat 1¼ cups into greased 8″ baking pan. Spread with the pie filling. Sprinkle with the remaining oat mixture. Bake at 375° for 30 minutes or until lightly browned. Yield: 6 to 8 Servings.

Kathy in FL – at 10:11

If you are interested in making your own jerky to preserve meat you might want to take a look at the 125 different recipes for it at Just Jerky Recipes.

Not all of the recipes are for making the jerky. There are also some recipes for using the jerky in stew, etc.

Kathy in FL – at 10:19

Unusual combination that actually works. <grin> This is for a bread machine or you can convert it to baking bread the old-fashioned way.

Black Eyed Peas and Bacon Bread

Place all ingredients in machine in manufacturer’s recommended order and push START!

Kathy in FL – at 10:23

Here’s another unusual bread combination that works. This bread needs to be eaten when it is fixed. Any leftovers must be refrigerated (or stored in a cool environment similar to a frig).

Barbecued Corned Beef and Cheese Bread

Place all the ingredients (EXCEPT THE 1/3 CUP CORNED BEEF) into the pan in the order listed. Select white bread and push “Start.” Add the chopped corned beef at the “beep.”

Kathy in FL – at 10:34

Here is yet another unusual bread that works. I figure that bread is what is going to help me piece out some of my more expensive prep items such as the canned meats. Or, it could make an inexpensive can of soup into a great meal.

Chicken and Stuffing Bread

Add all ingredients into the pan in the order listed. Select white bread and push “Start.”

Kathy in FL – at 10:35

Ezkiel Bread for the Bread Machine

Put all ingredients into the bread pan and push start.

Kathy in FL – at 10:37

If you do plan on using a bread machine to help you out, check out the 1430+ recipes at this site. It is where I got some of my unusual bread combinations, though they do have a ton of more traditional ones as well.

Kathy in FL – at 11:09

Reconstituting Dehydrated Products

You can substitute dehydrated foods in your favorite recipe using dehydrated products by following these guidelines:

Kathy in FL – at 11:11

Dried Fruit Pie

Roll out two-thirds sweet pastry about 1/8 inch thick on a lightly floured surface. Line an 11″ pie plate with the pastry, trim off the excess dough, prick the bottom of the shell with a fork and chill at least 30 minutes. Place the dried fruit in a large saucepan and cover with cold water, bring to a boil, and

simmer gently for 10 minutes. Drain the fruit in a colander and chop it coarsely. In a bowl combine the fruit with the sugar, almonds and melted butter. Roll out the remaining one-third of the pastry and brush the dough lightly with beaten egg and sprinkle with sugar. With a saw-toothed pastry wheel, cut 12 strips from the dough. Fill the shell with the fruit mixture, mounding it in the center, moisten the edge of the shell with the beaten egg, and arrange the strips in lattice fashion over the fruit, pressing the ends onto the edge of the shell. Make a decorative border on the rim of the pie. Bake the pie on the bottom third of a preheated 425(F oven for 30 minutes. Reduce the heat to 375(F and bake the pie for 20–30 minutes more, or until the pastry is browned. Remove from the oven and brush the fruit with melted apricot glaze. Serve the pie with sweetened whipped cream flavored with vanilla or brandy to taste. Serves 8. From Tante Marie http://www.tantemarie.com/

Kathy in FL – at 11:12

Oatmeal Dried Fruit Cookies

Preheat oven to 375(F. In a large bowl, cream together the butter and sugar until light and fluffy. Beat in the egg, then stir in the vanilla. Sift together the flour, baking soda, salt, cinnamon and nutmeg, gradually stir into the creamed mixture. Finally, stir in the quick oats and dried fruit.Drop by rounded spoonfuls onto the unprepared cookie sheet. Bake for 8 to 10 minutes in the preheated oven. Allow cookies to cool on baking sheet for 5 minutes before removing to a wire rack to cool completely. Make 3 dozen (36 servings)

Kathy in FL – at 11:15

Apricot Pumpkin Muffins

In a medium bowl, combine baking mix, apricots, sugar, cinnamon, ginger and nutmeg. Mix together milk, pumpkin and egg until well blended. Combine 2 mixtures; beat vigorously 1/2 minute. Fill 12 greased medium muffin cups 2/3 full. Bake in 400(F oven 15 to 20 minutes or until lightly browned on top. Remove from cups and serve warm. Makes 12 muffins.

Kathy in FL – at 11:16

Dried Fruit Balls

In a food processor bowl with metal blade, combine all ingredients except graham cracker crumbs; process until finely chopped. Shape mixture into 1-inch balls; roll in graham cracker crumbs. Store in airtight container in refrigerator. From - “Cookin’ With Home Storage” by Peggy Layton and Vicki Tate

13 October 2006

Kathy in FL – at 12:20

Anyone interested in wild game cooking and recipes might find the mountain breeze website in the link useful.

Kathy in FL – at 12:21

Crunchy Cereal

Put the dry ingredients into a large roaster pan. Mix vanilla with corn syrup. Add 1/4 cup water. Mix and add vegetable oil. Add liquids to dry ingredients and ix well. Bake 30 minutes at 250 degrees. Turn with pancake turner and continue baking until golden( about 15–20 minutes). Cool and add raisins and cut dates if desired.

Kathy in FL – at 12:23

Quick Energy Cookies

Cut up dried fruits and raisins and hold aside. Sift dry milk, baking powder, salt and soda, and mix together. Stir in flour, wheat germ, and coconut. Cream butter thoroughly. cream in peanut butter. continue creaming and add brown sugar. Add eggs, beating well. Add vanilla and mix well. Alternately add flour mixture with liquid milk. Stir in sunflower seeds and remaining dry ingredients. Add cut up fruit until thoroughly distributed. Drop by tablespoonfulls on ungreased cookie sheet and permit spreading room. Bake at 375 for 10–12 minutes. ( Allow cookies to dry out on cookie sheet before transferring.)

Kathy in FL – at 23:28

Hey all … gonna be away from the computer for about a week. Need the break and have to go fix some things at our rural property. Working on security measures as well as putting things back together after all the vandalism earlier in the year. Still finding things that needs repairing even after months and months. If it isn’t one thing it is another.

But, I hope to come back with some real oldies but goodies from my mom’s huge stash of old recipe books. Will be looking at handwritten recipe cards done by my grandmothers and great grandmother.

14 October 2006

AlohaORat 11:32

Kathy — Thank you for all that you do. Fluwikians everywhere will have happier bellies thanks to your work.

15 October 2006

Mari – at 21:33

I’ve caught up with parts 7 & 8 of this thread and part 1 of the Bisquick thread. The recipes have been added to the Flu Wiki cookbook. I also added a recipe for Basic Impossible Pie for other variations of the pies appearing in the Bisquick thread.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 21:35

Mari, you’re an ANGEL!!!! Thank you for everything!

Mari – at 22:33

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 21:35 - Thanks!

19 October 2006

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 10:09

Mari!!!!

Are you aware that the recipes over in the FOOD section of the PERSONAL GUIDES that is under PERSONAL PREPAREDNESS where you’ve been putting recipes is no longer available??

I’m assuming you are aware of that…is there anything we can do to regain access or move the info somewhere else — my printed out cookbook is only half finished!!!

I found out from pogge that they have no control over that area so I wrote this back to him on the moderator’s thead:

“Well, yes, I don’t know who je (Rich Erwin) is, but that’s where the information wound up. I’ll go over to the recipe thread and ask Mari & Kathy to see about getting the information to you so it can be moved somewhere else where we can get to it — Mari has worked sooooo hard on getting it all formatted and moved — we just can’t lose access to it.”

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 10:54

FALSE ALARM MARI!!! Ignore what I just posted, because pogge got me straightened out….I don’t know where what I’ll call the ‘new’ page came from, but if I can get there all the links there work. I had originally been told to go to the place that’s listed FOOD under the Rich Erwin or Evans or whatever his name is section, and it got closed down. I was afraid we’d been left hanging! Sorry for the alarm.

Mari – at 12:31

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 10:54 - Glad to hear that it was a false alarm.

There is always the possibility that somebody could intentionally or accidentally wipe out a page by just deleting everything that is there.

I’ve kept a backup of each page that I’ve posted in the Recipes area (just in case). When I add recipes I always start from what’s posted already (not just my backup in case others have added recipes). I’m sure pogge does frequent backups of the whole site, as well.

20 October 2006

Mari – at 15:59

Kathy in FL & others - I finally looked in the right place at my local super WalMart for ham boullion (Goya brand). For others as blind as I am, go to the taco section then look around for seasoning mixes.

Kathy in FL – at 21:59

Just back in town but thought I would tell you of something interesting that I found in an out of town super wally world. It was in the bouillon section but it was garlic and onion done up in bouillon cubes. Too cool.

Will get back with everyone tomorrow afternoon as well as with an ol’ timey “Epidemic Tea” that has cayenne pepper in it. <grin>

21 October 2006

Kathy in FL – at 16:52

Pandemic “Tea”

This was an old scribbled “receipt” in one of my grandmother’s bags of recipe clippings. It was in with some checks from the 1910′s and 20′s so more than likely refers to a flu epidemic.

Grind together the cayenne and salt. Add boiling water. Steep and cool. Add the vinegar to the water mixture. Take a sip every half hour.

Also noted that instead of water you could use boiling hot chamomile or peppermint tea.

Can’t imagine that the taste is anything worth writing home about, but I’ve seen several references in home remedy books that cayenne is a great anti-flu ingredient.

26 October 2006

Mari – at 11:25

Interesting tidbit of information - a calorie related to food is really a kilocalorie (kcal) of energy (see [[http://health.howstuffworks.com/calorie1.htm|article]). So the database & spreadsheet from the USDA site listing energy in kcal should convert directly to food calories.

31 October 2006

Bump – at 13:33

Have we run out of recipes???

Closed and Continued - Bronco Bill – at 14:34

Long thread closed and continued here

Last relevant posts copied to new thread

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.RecipesUsingCannedDryFoodsOnlyPartIX
Page last modified on October 31, 2006, at 02:34 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Lessons from Bunny Flu

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Lessons from Bunny Flu

24 October 2006

Kenpofemme – at 11:33

Energiser Bunny flu my friends! I am just back from 4 days in pergatory and can’t wait to eat solid food again. I didn’t throw up but I kept going and going… A few thoughts: - Someone (Kathy in FL?) advised us after her own illness to stock up on Gatorade and Gingerale. I can’t thank you enough! Double check your preps! I wasn’t even dying and it felt like a life saver! - Get a quantity of dramamine 1 and 2. The original makes you sleepy as well as reducing the nausea and that was a big plus! Certinly you would only use this with someone consious. -I got great relief for body aches with a Thermacare low back wrap. You can only use them once but they last all night. I also keep a few in my winter bugout bag, figure if I add one to my sleeping bag it could be nice and toasty. - If you can get some Flagyl (antibiotic) from your doc that was going to be the probible next step (in the SHTF scenario) if things didn’t slow down. It’s the treatment of choice for lots of “down there”{my doctors words} problems. -I can recommend the little packets of toats squares, Trader Joes has the best. They seem to stay crisp much longer than saltines. -As soon as I am well enough I am getting the flu shot! -You may like to see if you library has free audio book downloads. Mine now has full text audio and regular books. You can get this from your own bed (if you have a laptop)! You can transfer them onto a MP3 player. Great for kids, they had tons of childrens books on audio. I admit I downloaded one when I was too sick to handle my Steven King story! -I REALLY hope the water stays on! God bless and protect you from the flu- ANY flu!!

crfullmoon – at 11:38

Kenpofemme, sorry you were ill - so glad you’re improving!

Kathy in FL – at 12:46

I feel your pain. Our family has become convinced that if we have a weak link it is our two year old. He brought another round of stomach bug home from someplace. Not as bad as the batch back in June, but glory, it hasn’t been pleasant either.

Some of the gatorade type drinks are proving too hard on my stomach so I’m now looking into creating a drink from blackberry vinegar. It is supposed to be good for just about anything … and real thirst quencher. Now I just have to see if it is rough on ma’s stomach. I don’t have an ulcer … when I’m well I drink and eat a lot of dairy. When I’m sick of course that is out … and my stomach lets me know it is missing it. I’ll probably be laying in a stock of pepto and other type medicines to stave off any real acid problems that might prevent hydration.

Its great what you can learn from being sick … by why do we have to be sick to learn it?! Ugh!!!

31 October 2006

crfullmoon – at 09:37

Energiser Bunny flu: keep going and going…

Only funny as a line, not for anyone to have…

(bumping to rise above spam)

Kathy in FL would cutting the Gatorade in half with water have made it tolerable? Was it too sugary for “Bunny Flu”?

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Page last modified on October 31, 2006, at 09:37 AM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Fluwiki Communication in a Pandemic

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Fluwiki Communication in a Pandemic

05 September 2006

Ange D – at 19:16

I was thinking last night while reading the various threads here . . .wow! If a pandemic truly occurred (maybe late fall?) and there were power outages and fluwiki went down, where are you going to get the current news, support, information, what-to-do’s and level of communication we have all been the lucky recipients of here on fluwiki forums? Do you think that not being able to communicate with all the people here as a community resource would contribute to stress and your overall ability to adjust to this possible situation? Since it’s such an interesting and unusual community, won’t you also wonder how your fellow fluwikians are managing in possibly extreme circumstances? Anyone want to contribute their assessment of a possible scenario for being able to contact each other in this manner and get substantial updates and informative support for pandemic situations as they occur?

Granted, there is alot of expert information on the fluwiki main page area, but in a pandemic, there will be many things that may not have been envisioned. Do you think this fluwiki community would survive a pandemic or would it only be here until T”P”HTF?

Just curious.

LEG – at 19:21

I think so much depends on the state of the electrical grid. The MSM will be all drama and panic supportive, but there is the BBC and hopefully the web to stay in touch with. I imagine radio will be one of the last to fail if the grid falls(this is just a GUESS).

I am hopeful with all those here who have prepped with alternative energy sources, that at least a few someones will have shortwave radios up and running. I’d love to know now what “channels” I should tune into to be most likely to hear from fellow FluWikians.

I will not be able to transmit but like several of us who have prepped with the windup radios, hope to be able to hear news from the world with a long antenna hooked to the radio (mine is a Grundig).

LEG – at 19:23

Yes it will be very calming to know how others are faring. Comfort in numbers so to speak.

chivito – at 19:31

any hams (amature radio experts) out there who can hip us to which radio frequencies we can turn to for uncensored (air traffic, police, fire, ambulence, hospital, military?) information?

how might i tune into such legitimate, uncensored info?

what gear to get/modify?

Dennis in Colorado – at 19:40

Which frequencies?

Use your favorite search engine and look for “list shortwave radio stations.”

One good list is
http://www.eibi.de.vu/ Another is
http://support.radioshack.com/support_tutorials/communications/swave-6.htm

There are many more.

Dennis in Colorado – at 19:42

I forgot to mention: Not all of those broadcasts will be in English <grin>.

Doug Baker – at 20:38

well my other hobby is just listening to the local police, fire, etc. The Internet and Yahoo groups are full of information about radio monitoring.

Here is the short answer, you just need a radio scanner and the correct list of frequencies to monitor.

Note: This is mostly local activity, to get shortwave, that is another kind of receiver.

For example I have a radio shack Pro-96 scanner and I listen to the local police, state police, fire, ems people. I can listen to the snow plow drivers if I am really interested in the road conditions in a winter storm. Here is a place to start. http://www.radioreference.com/

Ranchgirl – at 20:49

My uncle was a ham radio operator in WWII and continues to stay very active. He has been encouraging me to get my license (in my free time). If I can get him to buy into the entire fluwiki concept, he might be willing to serve as one of the conduits.

Edna Mode – at 21:12

It would be really cool if people who have ham licenses “built” a Flu Wiki network to pass info. But I have a sneaking suspicion that people’s willingness to reveal themselves to this extent will be limited. I only know a smidge about ham radio networks and operators, but from what I gather, if you know someone’s call sign, you can pretty much identify their general (maybe specific) location. I may be misinformed on this though.

If there were a way to build such a ham radio network, I would be willing to help coordinate it. I do not have any experience on ham, but I know how to organize things! And I know these networks are a valuable asset in times of disaster (Katrina case in point). Is there interest?

Dennis in Colorado – at 21:57

Ranchgirl – at 20:49

There are several licensed amateurs (hams) here on fluwiki. I am one. Since there is a need for some to remain anonymous, most have not posted station call signs here. I do predict, though, that many of the existing traffic and existing welfare nets will be used for pandemic-support purposes ATSHTF. I’ll be active on 20 and 40 meter nets for national and international traffic, and will be active on 2 meters for local traffic. I have an ICOM 706 MkII that operates on 12 VDC, with a multi-band dipole on the ridgeline of my house.

Dennis in Colorado – at 22:16

Edna Mode – at 21:12

You are correct, if I provided my station call sign to you, you could check the FCC database and know my street address, city, state, and ZIP Code.

BirdGuanoat 22:30

Also another ham here who won’t post a callsign in a public place.

Check out PACTOR III with published operating frequencies for setting up an HF bbs and email system, independant of the grid and internet. http://ecjones.org/pactor.html

Existing welfare nets such as SATERN will be used. Bet on it.

Since I’m in public safety, I’ll also monitor regional public safety frequencies, and probably shortwave if it’s running.

Start with a good shortwave set with single side band capability, then add a public safety scanner.

I also endorse www.radioreference.com as a resource.

LauraBat 22:30

You can’t rely on the phones always being there! We learned yet another valuable power lesson this last round (thanks to Ernesto half of CT had no power this weekend). We loose power a lot in our rural town, but often bigger towns nearby do not. Generally the outages are short, no longer than one day (except for a few). We’ve never lost the phone (have an “old fashioned” one that doesn’t need power.) This outage was very widespread and lasted 24 hours AND WE HAD NO PHONE!

I talked to a neighbor who works at the phone company - he used to be the guy out doing repairs, laying lines, etc. and now he supervises those guys. 20+ years experience. This is what I learned. Basically, phones also the equivalent of “transformers” like electrical transformers that serve localized areas. Often they run off a seperate power souce vs homes. However, if an outage is very widespread, like this one was, there is no power for the transformers either. They have batteries that last about 8 hours which then need to be recharged. I asked “so if we have an ice storm and loose power for a week, we’ll have no phone.” He said, no WE’LL have phone because I’ll have my guys out recharging our unit, but the rest of the town will be SOL.

Lesson - have lots of alternatives. Make sure you have a hand-crank radio with cell-phone charger. Lots of the “emergency” radios also have TV signals. We use cable for internet but are looking into good-old dial up or DSL as a back-up.

06 September 2006

EnoughAlreadyat 00:45

Communication is a big necessity and problem in any emergency situation. We have several “modes.” One thing I am really wanting to get is a CB like truckers use. The way I figure it, at least I could get some real on the ground information. During Rita last year we were in a “news blackout.” All the communication we had didn’t work because we were holed up in a remote (or at least we thought it was remote… but so did several hundred other evacuees) national forest. Reception was awful due to everything being down and the remoteness. A trucker told us to get a trucker CB for info, because truckers would be out and about more than likely. I suppose I haven’t done this because of limitations to this mode of communication and because other stuff just seems more important. And, we have several other modes of communication that have worked in the past… just not the hurricane last year.

Annoyed Max- Not mad yet – at 09:10

I saw this posting and wanted to correct something. When the power grid or more exactly the phone power grid goes down, yes the cell phones will work for a day or two and three at the max because the cell towers work off battery backup. Dont count on your cell working too long if the land lines are dead as the towers will quickly power down. I guess if you had a satellite phone it would work but who are you going to call as their phone would be just as dead.

LEG – at 21:58

Can someone please explain the major differences and advantage comparisons between CB and Shortwave?

alyson – at 22:20

Can a person buy a “trucker CB” and just use it in the house? Sorry if this is a hilariously stupid question, but I’m ignorant. And if so, any recommendations? Do you need any special antennae? This seems like an Eccles question, kind of, but are there any knowlegeable folks out there?

07 September 2006

BirdGuanoat 00:17

CB’s are very low power and definitely require an outside antenna if you plan on talking to anyone past a couple of blocks.

CB antennas are HUGE. Measured in feet.

A lot of the “trucker cb’s” also have illegal higher power output than regular cb’s.

If you want to know what’s going on, get Sirius or XM satellite radio. You get most of the major news outlets, and some regional news as well. They also have an emergency channel.

Works coast to coast anywhere you have a view of the southern sky.

I’ve used XM in campgrounds at the bottom of a box canyon, and on boats off the California coast.

Also get shortwave, and for live uncensored local and regional comms, get a public safety scanner.

BirdGuanoat 00:20

LEG – at 21:58

Can someone please explain the major differences and advantage comparisons between CB and Shortwave?


Sure.

Shortwave with single sideband capability allows you to monitor one-way communications.

Both broadcast stations that originate outside of the United States, as well as some amateur radio communications near the same frequencies.

CB or Citizens’ Band Radio is a short-range two-way communication system that was very popular in the 70′s.

Low frequency 27Mhz, low power 4 watts, am modulation.

Truckers still use it for passing info and to kill time chatting.

blackbird – at 02:29

BirdGuano – at 00:17

“If you want to know what’s going on, get Sirius or XM satellite radio. You get most of the major news outlets, and some regional news as well. They also have an emergency channel.”

I was thinking about doing that, but heard that they use up a lot of battery power (assuming the electrical grid is eithe down or unstable).

Comments?

lugon – at 04:07

What would be a handful of websites for people wanting to research on this? Or keywords for wikipedia? I’m thinking about:

Could someone map out the requirements, the tools, etc? I’m thinking about something like this (a quick draft!):

Such a network might have “levels of capillarity” (for lack of a better term right now, please help!), perhaps: how to connect locally, how to connect across larger distances, etc.

It’s difficult to think big and think small at the same time. New territory!

lugon – at 04:19

Sorry about this “questions only” mode. I really don’t know what we could do to have a really great fantastic useful working communication network for us fluwikians when things start to get noisy and then, possibly, patchily silent.

Also, local communities need to think out their own communication strategy - openly. I mean, it’s not just about a thin and spread network of fluwikians - everyone will need to communicate across distances. The bare minimum is to use mirrors and some way to code messages (“we have food”, “we have water”, “let’s swap asynchronously”, “ok”).

If this were a science fiction novel, then we’d have an addendum with the “how to”. Sounds like a wikipage to me. :)

Ocean2 – at 04:56

Ange D – at 19:16 - “Do you think that not being able to communicate with all the people here as a community resource would contribute to stress and your overall ability to adjust to this possible situation?”

For me, the time to prepare and adjust is now. It’s not that hard to imagine what may happen, if I screw up my courage and look at it with a dispassionate eye. I’m prepared to die- it’s been my meditation for 26 years. And we all have to go sometime…..

When the fluwiki went down some months ago, I discovered I had a real streak of paranoia! What if xxx government is blocking our vital news source?!?!? I really had to work out that one fast- it had already become clear to me that if a pandemic with a high CFR hit, there would be no electriicity thus no Internet. Also the issue of dependency came up. It gave me an enormous impetus to go on prepping and contacting loved ones about BF. Then my computer went on the blink for 2 1/2 weeks- it was as if I was locked out of the family home! I missed very much the regular posters, the news updates, the scientific exchanges, the prepping information- everything we really love about the wiki. Since then I have been downloading much useful info; also the more science-based posts for later re-reading.

“Since it’s such an interesting and unusual community, won’t you also wonder how your fellow fluwikians are managing in possibly extreme circumstances? “

I have been wondering about that from the beginning! These are already extreme circomstances. But I know in my heart of hearts that many here are very smart and capable people. It’s a rare and precious thing to see and participate in. I wish evryone the absolute best!

19 September 2006

lugon – at 13:32

http://www.worldchanging.com/archives/004943.html

Our Communication Stations are ultra-low-power PCs, running on Linux, requiring 12 watts of power. They can be run on solar, bicycle, wind, or other power; solar is the primary. This is important because most communities they serve are off the grid. They are very simple machines, with no moving parts, using off-the-shelf technology; they can also can be modified to add voice communication (VOIP). Each computer connects to a wifi access point which in turn connects to a real internet connection (satellite, local ISP, or cell phone provider with data capability). Each wifi access points has a high-gain directional antenna with a 12 to 20 km line-of-sight range, and the access points can daisy-chain up to 5 hops, so they can take their range out to 70–100 km to the internet connection. We work with local entrepreneurs to maintain the deployments we have.

fredness – at 15:21

I think the FluWiki community is better informed than the average person. Armed with a ham radio we may be able to inform people on a wide scale. While most of us are not doctors we do know about infection control and some vital information about fever and dehydration. We could read the latest manual of Dr Woodson over the air.

Lugon- right again. We need a wiki page on this important topic.

Bird Guano said “Start with a good shortwave set with single side band capability, then add a public safety scanner.”

It looks like Yaesu VX5R or Icom IC T90A might be good 5w triband handheld models but they don’t have SSB. The Yaesu is more difficult to use but has the WIRES internet repeater system feature which sounds useful. I am not certain able the WIRES vs SSB tradeoffs. These models can be modified to include frequencies which cover public safety (at least in my area according to Radio Reference).

I asked my local Radio Emergency Associated Communication Team (REACT) about modified ham radios as public safety scanners and they did not reply. Maybe that is because I am not a member or do not have my license yet. I am sure they want to maintain integrity of the emergency system by ensuring only trained users are on the air rather than the chaotic communication that citizen’s band radio sometimes carries.

Mars/Cap Modification Will Expanded Transmit Frequencies to: 50Mhz to 54Mhz 140Mhz to 174Mhz 420Mhz to 470Mhz

Freeband Modification Will Expanded Transmit Frequencies to: 48Mhz to 69.995Mhz 108Mhz to 221.995Mhz 300Mhz to 579.9875Mhz

I believe the radios with Lithium Ion batteries are prefereable. I was thinking that smaller units might use batteries and could be recharged using solar if necessary. I think I saw someone posted that 15w solar panels were available for $70 at www.northerntool.com. This is drifting towards another thread. Of course you don’t want to buy more quality than you need. I don’t know if non-handheld transceivers are more affordable.

A hand crank mobile radio would be interesting but probably not cheap.

fredness – at 16:00

Emergency Communications page already exists. Lots of room for improvement of course.

Urdar-Norge – at 19:04

many of us are familar with the instant messaging softwares. Like AIM, IChat, MSN, ICQ and Yahooh Messenger.

Jabber is the independent open source alternativ. “Decentralized — the architecture of the Jabber network is similar to email; as a result, anyone can run their own Jabber server, enabling individuals and organizations to take control of their IM experience.”

Point is, if you stille have net in your house, then a problem with electricty on a another place, like the place where MSN server is located. Will cut the usage uf MSN. Jabber on the other hand uses the main strenght of the internet, the decentraliced net. My plan is to publish my AIM and MSN adress here on the wiki if TSHTF.. I also hope others will (make an anonym acount, preferbale with a similar nick as used here.) This will take a lot of the load fluwiki will meet as one of the best sourses of information. If MSN etc have trouble, I will use the Jabber. I am sure the “hackers” of the world will fix this huge challenge :-) Ham radios are fine as well, but most of us will use the net as long it can be used, and the net is very solid.

Urdar-Norge – at 19:07

page… http://www.jabber.org/about/overview.shtml

lugon – at 19:37

resilience means variety - as in nature

Medical Maven – at 19:41

My prediction: Given a high CFR and CIR individual operators with ham radios will be the last redoubt of broadcasting and communication worldwide. It might even outlast the military networks worldwide.

Bird Guano – at 22:37

Medical Maven – at 19:41

My prediction: Given a high CFR and CIR individual operators with ham radios will be the last redoubt of broadcasting and communication worldwide. It might even outlast the military networks worldwide.


Given that hams are mostly old-farts and not in the prime pandemic category, you are probably correct.

Of course there are some of us young whipper-snappers who are licensed.

The VX5 won’t do HF very well.

I restate my opinion on what you need for situational awareness:

I also plan:

I wonder if Jabber would work via PACTOR over HF radio for long distances ?

The internet is FAR from robust as one person here opined. That robustness ended when commercial entities took over and DARPA relinquished control.

Your choke points are DSLAM’s, fiber hubs, the DNS system, and data centers that house servers and are power hogs.

Grid POWER is the gating item, followed by diesel availability for generators.

Thanks for the WiKi comm link.

I will have to check that out.

20 September 2006

lugon – at 04:50

are people having ethereal conversations around this? what do they think?

fredness – at 13:18

CurEvents Comm Shack has many discussions on this topic. See also eHam.net. They have forums and equipment reviews. See also http://www.dxzone.com

This subject is deep. May require an expert write up a summary here, or a Emergency Survival Communications book, or link to good existing resources.

No ethereal conversations from me. I only had a cb radio as a teenager and remember it was be chaotic trying to carry on conversations. I heard it is worse now in my area. BirdGuano works with fire and rescue for a living and has experience from that perspective.

26 September 2006

fredness – at 02:16

I did a search on eham.net for the word pandemic and found this. It looks very interesting.

Strong Angel III Integrated Disaster Response Demonstration Anticipating Complexity | Exploring Responses | Cultivating Resilience

A Complex Contingency: A lethal and highly-contagious virus gradually begins to spread around the globe. Infection rates are high, deaths are frequent, and no vaccine is available. Cities all over the world fall under quarantine. Emergency services and medical centers are stressed and national government agencies, affected just as severely as the cities themselves, cannot provide assistance. And then the situation goes from bad to worse.

AnnieBat 02:25

fredness, if it wasn’t so true, that would be a classic line for the humour thread .. It does belong in the quotable quotes thread though surely :-) good find!

sam in az – at 18:26

Do you have a recommendation for a Public Safety scanner for a total novice? What are the minimum requirements to look for? I tried looking at various sites on my own and got lost immediately. Found lots apparently geared to monitoring driver’s communications in car racing.

Also, maybe this is stupid but I was wondering if the police encrypt? or otherwise protect their communications so scanners can’t pick them up. thanks.

27 September 2006

Bird Guano – at 00:57

Hey Fredness.

Good to see you here.

Public Safety Scanner recommendation ??

That’s VERY area-specific.

It fully depends on what they use in your area of operation.

Best place to check is www.radioreference.com

Come back and tell us what types of systems are listed in your area and I can make a recommendation.

Most police are NOT encrypted, but that is slowly changing as police move to digital radio systems and mobile computer terminals.

sam in az – at 10:28

Thanks BG,

This is the info from www.radioreference.com We live in Phoenix. Is this the info you wanted?

System Name: Maricopa County Location: Maricopa County, AZ County: 3 counties System Type: Motorola Type II SmartZone System Voice: Analog and APCO-25 Common Air Interface Sysid: 521C CT: 128.57 Uniden DSP: 250D = 733 / 785D = 533 Last Updated: Added Site-15 Hits: 9857

This is an ASTRO Digital Smartzone system in use for public safety communications in Maricopa County AZ. The Scottsdale Police Department has recently joined the system in Analog mode.

crfullmoon – at 11:26

BG, I found Middlesex county, MA ]] (and should probably print that out for future reference, since “Motorola Type IIi Hybrid, Motorola Type II SmartZone, LTR Standard” currently mean nada to me) but, I notice not all towns in the county are listed.

28 September 2006

sam in az – at 08:20

Bumping back up hoping for some help.

fredness – at 10:10

I added some basic info about FRS and GRMS. Those radios are cheap $25 per pair and work across 1 mile of level terrain (approx). There is a National SOS program that sounds very useful in case power or telephone service is unavailable. Great for neighborhood watch programs. Of course you need to stock up on batteries.

http://www.fluwikie.com/pmwiki.php?n=Consequences.Radio

EMTimat 13:23

Sam, ASTRO is a Digital radio system put out by Motorola (Motorola Type II SmartZone). You’ll need a digital trunking scanner to listen and follow at least some of the converstaions. Your post says that the “System Voice” is “Analog and APCO-25 Common Air Interface” meaning that at least some of the transmissions are in analog and can be picked up using any trunking scanner, but others are digital (APCO-25). My guess is that anything you’d be interested in (Police/Fire/EMS) is likely digital.

I haven’t personally used or set up any digital scanners, but I do have an analog trunking scanner that was easy to set up. I had planned to buy a digital scanner when they got cheaper, but now I’m part of the Fire/EMS service in my county, so I don’t need one anymore. Uniden makes several models of digital scanners, both hand held and base units. Check on the features and prices and buy whatever seems to best meet your needs.

fredness – at 13:51

I called a local ham radio store. They said the police use analog frequencies. To get anyone else (fire dept, emergency medical services (EMS), etc you need a digital scanner which costs $500 (from them). If power is up it would be better to use public safety scanners which are repeated (rebroadcast) on the internet. There is probably a link to them on www.radioreference.com

Police Scanners for most US Cities on DX Zone

If you plan to use a public saftey scanner here are the frequencies for common Public Safety Radios from Radio Reference website

sam in az – at 14:23

Thanks for the info. Like everything else re prepping, I’m learning as fast as I can.

I was hoping a scanner would enable us to keep informed re problems in the city if the power was down. Phoenix has a high crime rate at the best of times. Would hate to invest in a scanner though and then find I can’t hear police, fire etc.

Bird Guano – at 18:57

sam in az – at 10:28

Thanks BG,

This is the info from www.radioreference.com We live in Phoenix. Is this the info you wanted?

System Name: Maricopa County Location: Maricopa County, AZ County: 3 counties System Type: Motorola Type II SmartZone System Voice: Analog and APCO-25 Common Air Interface Sysid: 521C CT: 128.57 Uniden DSP: 250D = 733 / 785D = 533 Last Updated: Added Site-15 Hits: 9857

This is an ASTRO Digital Smartzone system in use for public safety communications in Maricopa County AZ. The Scottsdale Police Department has recently joined the system in Analog mode.


You will need a digital capable scanner like a Radio Shack Pro2096 or the Uniden 996T

You’re into the $500 range for a scanner.

Shop around.

I have both and like the Pro2096 for it’s better audio quality. There is also a hand-held version the Pro96. Same price.

All digital capable scanners are computer programmable with the correct cable and a software program.

In fact there are many areas where the configuration is already posted by somebody in a Yahoo Group and you just download the file and then upload it to the scanner and start listening.

Let me know if I can help further.

Bird Guano – at 18:58

Oh and I should add the Radio Shack digital scanners won’t do LTR trunking.

Only the unidens.

Northern Star – at 19:19

Every Spring the local church of Latter Day Saints (Mormon)in the St. Paul,MN area holds a Preparedness Fair. “Preparedness” is a tenet of their faith. Anyway, they had EVERY area of preparedness covered including ham radio seminars. Check to see if a similar event is held in your area. I understand the preparedness fairs are free, open to the public, and have minimal attendance outside local LDS members. By the way they had phenomenal demos on canning, square foot gardens, bread baking (top notch- this is what I attended for), how to store food for a year, water storage, and more.

sam in az – at 20:01

Thanks! um, what’s LTR trunking?

I researched water for weeks before buying the Big Berkey with black filters as being the most suitable for our needs. I can see learning about digital scanners will be my next project. Thanks for all the info. I appreciate it. I may not be any smarter than I was when I started but I think I can ask more intelligent questions thanks to you!

sam in az – at 20:51

You are right Northern Star. There was a fair just this past weekend! My timing, once again, is impeccable! Will try to see if there will be any others in this part of the state. Last year there was one in February so I will try to catch one somewhere. thanks.

30 October 2006

fredness – at 19:33

bump

LMWatBullRunat 20:47

While I am also not willing to list my call, I think it might be well to set up some ‘just in case’ frequencies for flu emergencies. Right now at lower sunspot activity I have not heard much activity on 20 meters after dark; 40 is open then though. How about a couple alternate freqs, say on 20 and 40 meters? 7250 and 14250?

We could also select a CB channel, too. Say 33?

Any thoughts?

As regards portable receivers, I am most pleased with my Icom R-10. Eccles has chided me for suggesting this radio as it is far better than most people need, but it works very well, with coverage from 0.5 mhz up to 1300 Mhz all modes, runs on rechargeable AA batteries and is about the size of an old-fashioned transistor radio. I carry it with me on my travels and it’s really handy to have- scans police and weather, shortwave, CB, am, fm, TV broadcasts, ham, everything. Really neat receiver, and it really pulls in the signals with an external antenna, which I also take along.

I rather fancy Ten-Tec HF rigs; they have outstanding receivers and really good CW transmitters. SSB voice quality was always good, too.

Another thing to think about is local phone service. I bought a number of TA-1 and TA-312 military telephones a couple of years back, so that if things go sour I can have local hardwired commo in my neighborhood. They are not very expensive, and they are really rugged. Kind of like the grownup version of the Wire and tin can phones……..but handy.

Dennis in Colorado – at 21:20

LMWatBullRun – at 20:47 How about a couple alternate freqs, say on 20 and 40 meters? 7250 and 14250?

Those sound fine to me; they are open to General class licensees and are open to phone. Unless someone has a specific reason not to use those two, I vote for them. Do we need a #3 plan, on 15 meters … say, at 21400? I’ve often done well from here on 15 meters. Don’t want to make it too complicated, however; we want to make sure we can find each other.

Also, how about a schedule? We are certainly NOT going to be able to pick one time each day that will be “best” for all concerned as far as a main time for sharing info is concerned, especially when we consider our European and Australian friends. Maybe something like 06, 12, 18, & 24 UTC, with each op taking his/her pick of time to be on the air? Would that spread us too thin and not allow maximum sharing of info? 12 & 24 UTC would put more of us on together but would still allow some flexibility of scheduling (I am at UTC-7, so that would be 0500 & 1700 for me and either of those is OK with me).

LMWatBullRunat 21:31

I do wonder whether 15 would be reliable, but sure we can set up 21400 as an alternate. 12 and 24 UTC makes good sense to me. Suggest that we commence when the Wiki site is down for more than 48 hours or when the pandemic starts, whichever comes first.

Thoughts?

31 October 2006

Surfer – at 07:34

Guys and Gals

Didn’t see this thread until after I posted on the “Ham Sat Communications in a Pandemic” thread. Will you read my post on that thread and reply?

Asuggestion. Perhaps one thread dedicated to Ham Sat com, and another to CB com.

fredness – at 09:15

From Communication as found in the FluWiki Index.

National SOS Radio Network Our goal is simple: To help create an easy, accessible-by-all emergency communications system freely shared by the public & emergency resources. In an emergency situation: CITIZENS: Use all standard communication options first (telephone, cell phone, etc.). Should standard options fail, and personal safety is at risk, tune your FRS radios to Channel 1 and coordinate your efforts with neighbors & community coordinators (refer to our general Guidelines).

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.FluwikiCommunicationInAPandemic
Page last modified on October 31, 2006, at 09:15 AM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Georgia Preppers

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Georgia Preppers

25 March 2006

ricewiki – at 01:37

At the request of Buzz, I hereby designate the Georgia Preppers thread!

Please feel free to talk amongst yourselves and plan, congregate, speculate and commiserate the state of viral affairs:)

Buzz – at 22:59

Hello GA.! Is there anyone else out there? I have read through the ATL thread and would like to have yall here along with the rest of us. Sounds like we are all pretty spread out as it is. I live in the north part of Dawson County and commute to Atl. 4 days a week through Cumming on the GA express buss down to the North Springs station and from there to work at CDC (NO I am not a doctor and I do not work in the influenza branch.)

I have been pondering the fate of our state and the Atlanta area in particular since I use MARTA (along with a few hundred thousand others every week). Since ATL airport is an huge hub I expect the virus to get to our fair city very early on. I expect infected travelers and/or employees from the airport to contaminate the MARTA trains and hand rails, not to mention the air in the cars. I think we should have a very early trigger point for all of us in the ATL area and in particular those who use the MARTA system. I would like to hear anyone who has thoughts on the matter.

26 March 2006

Concerned Dad – at 00:21

Buzz, I would assume you are correct. Not much prepping going on in my area, north of Atlanta about 35 miles. We’re heading out tomorrow to gather some more supplies. I glanced through “The Great Influenza” at Borders today. Scary stuff. Can’t imagine what conditions would be like if it happened today. Crossing my fingers and hoping we’ll be using a lot of those supplies on camping trips later.

Melanie – at 00:35

Concerned Dad,

Get the book and read it. It’s great writing in addition to great information and you are going to want to pass it along to the skeptics in your own social circle.

We yanks are ignorant of our own history, generally. This piece of our story was deliberately buried.

Buzz – at 00:46

Concerned Dad - Roger that. I have enough to go on a camping trip from sea to shining sea! Am due to retire in Jan. 07 (if my ex, will let me) and my new wife and I have been talking about touring the whole country while we can. I wish this thing could just fizzle out somehow. But I don’t think it will. I think we are in for some really bad times. I read the great influenza book a few months ago. We bought 2 extra copies and sent them to our kids to read - one for my kids and one for my wife’s kids. So far only i of hers (with wife and 4 grandkids) and one of mine (single) have agreed to come up to hunker down in the mts. with us. My 2 other kids are prepping but want to ride it out in FL. My wife’s 2 others (both with their own children) are very resistant to buying in and aren’t even prepping. We worry about them a lot and pray they will come around.

Do you live on the 400 corridor? In the burbs or do you have some acreage?

jack walt – at 05:49

Hello Buzz and Concerned Dad, I live in Kennesaw. Maybe we should get all of the cocerned people in the greater Atlanta area together and have a meeting. From what i’ve expirienced so far a booth at waffle house should be big enough.

Sthrn Tr – at 07:05

Hello. I am a science teacher and mother of small children who has been lurking and prepping since fall. (My dh is not on board but overlooks all the stuff I have stashed away.) I’ve read Barry’s book. I would also like an early trigger point but, so far, I haven’t met anyone in my school system who takes BF seriously.

Wayne – at 07:53

I’m a bit east of Athens in Oglethorpe County. Our little district here is beginning to form a community response group loosely organized around the volunteer fire department. We have a RN and a physician in the community. Our household has been prepping personally for about six months, and are in the second year of expanding our garden considerably.

And like everyone else, I’m not seeing much prepping or concern although at least some of the area natives might already do that as a matter of course.

amt – at 17:18

I’m in Columbus…I retrieved Barry’s book from the library and I am currently reading it.

Georgia O – at 18:43

Hi everyone, I’m in Midtown Atl. Been prepping for about 2 months and now trying to decide if I should keep my family here or go down to Brunswick should the shtf.

Concerned Dad – at 19:46

Buzz, We’re off of 85 just north of Gwinnett Co. I also am a teacher and don’t hear much from our people about prepping either. When I bring the subject up all I get is “It’s media hype and they’re just exaggerating the problem.” I don’t even want to bring it up with them as most people I know aren’t doing any prepping at all and seem unconcerned about this. I’m making some headway with my wife family but she won’t read any of the articles I run off for her yet. It’s very frustrating.

27 March 2006

Buzz – at 17:51

I understand everyone’s concern about their difficulties getting loved ones to get on board. My family too thought I was a nut when I started talking about it. (Some still do) But most seem to have come around and the families seem to be in various stages of acceptance and some are even prepping. You can see an exchange of information between me and my daughter Liz in FL on the “Florida Preppers string. Rather than trying to pursuade everyone with my superior debating skills (which are non-existant)I would just give them something I would print off the net and hand it to them and say something like “I’m no expert but read this and see what you think. Some of the stuff I provided included things off the Pandemicflu.gov website and some were articles like the citypages interview of Dr. Mike Osterholm at www.citypages.com/databank/27/1320/article14219.asp That is the location of the article. ( don’t do links very well - sorry)

I don’t think it serves any good purpose in family relationships to try and argue others into prepping. I think it is counter productive. Just watch out for the latest on the spreading of the virus, the death rate, also referred to as the case fatality rate or simply CFR. Print the articles and such off and just keep giving the more information. And more, and more, and more. After all you are doing it because you love them.

I would be interested in hearing about any good sales for prepping supplies anyone has or info about sources for solar energy and prices, things like that.

Good luck in your prepping.

Best Regards, Buzz

jack walt – at 18:37

Buzz, Wish i could be more help in reguards to solar equipment. But haven’t looked into the option personaly. As for getting others aware, your not alone in finding resistance. I certainly mean no one any harm, quite the oposite. I just think, as was stated by Dr. Webster that most people can’t comprehend such high fatalities. Or how it would effect the life they have grown used to. I allways state that i don’t know it will happen, and that in fact hope it does not. I guess anyone is considered an alarmist untill the snooze button can no longer be pushed on an issue. Look forward to talking with you in the future. And let’s hope were wrong to worry about this disease. Becuase if were right, God help us all.

joseph – at 19:29

Decatur, GA… I have been stocking supplies steadily, for several months. Lots of cans…

I have been stacking stuff in my car (trunk) in case I have to leave the city in a hurry.

20 July 2006

Calandriel in L5P – at 23:13

I would like to meet F2F with some local Atlanta preppers…anyone interested?

15 September 2006

MaMaat 13:36

The Northeast Georgian- ‘Counties plan for flu pandemic’

“On Wednesday, representatives from Habersham, White and Rabun counties took the first step in planning for a flu pandemic.

Approximately 25 people from various segments of the three counties met at the Ruby Fulbright Aquatic Center in Clarkesville to begin creating Community Pandemic Influenza Plans for each county. The planning meeting was led by Emergency Preparedness Director Mark Palen, Public Information Officer Dave Palmer and Training Coordinator Sheryl Wynn, all of the Georgia Department of Human Resources’ (DHR) North Health District (District 2).

According to Palmer, each community plan will be an annex to the North Health District “All Hazards Plan,” which, in turn, is part of the state plan….”

…”Segments of the community that will be involved in creating the Community Pandemic Influenza Plan are government, public health, media, schools, faith-based organizations, business, transportation, healthcare systems, volunteer/service organizations and the general public…”

…”In addition to discussing the Community Pandemic Influenza Plan, Sheryl Wynn gave a presentation on the Medical Reserve Corps, which is an organization of volunteers founded to answer President Bush’s call for volunteers to support their country.

Of Georgia’s 229 volunteers, 144 are non-medical, 70 are medically trained and 15 are trained in mental health. The volunteers will receive general training and they will receive more specific training depending on the emergency they are called to answer….”

…”“If you have a pulse and you’re willing and interested, we can put you to work,” she said. Information on the Medical Reserve Corps can be found at www.medicalreservecorps.gov.”

http://www.thenortheastgeorgian.com/articles/2006/09/15/news/top_stories/05topstory.txt

amt – at 16:54

Hi fellow Georgians…I confess that I live so close to the border that I usually lurk on the Alabama page.

Nevertheless…I would like to point out that the State of Georgia has perhaps, the MOST LAME pandemic preparedness information available. Not to mention that the State of Georgia HAS NOT stockpiled Tamiflu.

Highlights from the GA State Department of Health’s Website

Highlights from the “Pandemic Influenza Preparedness and Response Standard Operating Plan”

OK on to quotes from the FAQ

Travelers to affected countries are advised to avoid poultry farms and live bird markets during their visit. In addition, wild waterfowl or waterfowl showing signs of disease should be avoided in these countries. Although birds in Georgia are unlikely to be infected with bird flu, it is always a good idea to avoid contact with birds showing signs of disease. People who raise waterfowl or poultry should immediately report any suspicious disease in their birds to their flock supervisor or veterinarian. Those with pet birds, such as parrots, cockatiels, love birds or budgies should not worry about their pets getting “bird flu” if they have not been out of the country or in contact with birds from other countries. (OK…are we stupid)

No, there is a surveillance program to detect avian influenza viruses before they enter the food chain. In addition, there have been no human infections in affected countries as a result of eating commercially processed poultry products.

From the Master Planning Kit

Because we will not be able to rely on medications, self care will be key to avoiding getting the flu during a pandemic. So…1. Keep Away from People Who Have a Cold or Flu & 2. Wash Your Hands More Often

prepare themselves and their family, and what to do when the pandemic arrives. A well informed public can help to slow the spread of the pandemic. Materials are being developed by CDC and GDPH to inform the public about the pandemic threat. (GREAT…well just wait for the CDC to get around to it!)

I could keep on going and going. GEORGIA needs to GET MOVING on this!!! It doesn’t look like they are taking it seriously, and the CDC is not helping!

ok. nuff said.

Libby in Atlanta – at 19:37

To AMT I just brought home my first Tamiflu today. I feel likeI am finally getting some where. A Publix store told me they have lots of Tamiflu on hand . So what gives? I live in the Alpharetta/ Roswell area. Maybe someone can help me w/ this ,I live in a upper middle class neighborhood and we have a monthly newsletter Ihave yet to see anything about the flu. I would like to approach some of my neighbors but I have this rejection thing in the back of my mind. I don’t want to be looked at weird when I drive through the neighborhood. One more thing, one would think living so close to the CDC we would be at the top of the list.

Blue Ridge Mountain Mom – at 21:18

Libby in Atlanta - 19:37

Look at the Red Ribbon Pandemic Awareness Thread

http://tinyurl.com/nw7w9

This is the thread for a panflu conference that Goju went to.

http://tinyurl.com/q8bl5

Both threads should give you some really good info to get started.

AMT - 16:24

Georgia’s pandemic preparations are a joke. Anyone feel like Atlanta will be one of those cities left twisting in the wind?

As far as Georgia’s PTB, they are thinking with their hubris. You have to remember that Gainesville, GA is THE POULTRY CAPITAL OF THE WORLD. (How would you like to live 30 minutes away from that? Oh, wait, the 2 chicken houses next door might be more problematic!!!) TPTB are basing their assumptions on the avian flu staying in birds and being able to contain it there. I’ve been banging my head against the brick wall on this one, and I’ve gone pretty darn far up the chain with some very influential people at my side.

Bottom line unofficial official answer: we are on our own until people start dropping dead, even then, Atlanta & Savannah will be the focus. Got to keep the port and the airport open.

amt – at 21:39

Libby in Atl-

I am going to ask my doctor for a prescription for Tamiflu. If nothing else, I will get to see how he feels about the situation ethically, especially because the State is discouraging the personal stockpiling of Tamiflu. (But companies can do it! Its ethical if you are a company…ark.) Worst case scenario: he will treat me like a crazy person, and say no. Then I will try to find another MD who will prescribe it. Who knows, it may not help at all.

Nevertheless, I am deeply disappointed at the State of Georgia’s apparent lack of concern. While they seem to be doing more in the past month or so, they have no guidelines for personal prep. NONE. They are waiting on the CDC on that!!! (LOL)!!!

I have seen nothing on the topic in Columbus. I am also afraid of talking about it for fear of being labeled a nut.

Reading through the GDPH site, there do seem to be some volunteer opportunities (in theory) for local pandemic planning. I would rather help that way - through a formal channel, rather than chatting with friends and neighbors. If you have a homeowner’s association, you could work through them - so it can be a bit more anonymous. I don’t…

The thing is I don’t want to get roped into being a volunteer during an actual pandemic due to my responsibilities at home. (Toddler) So I don’t know.

Blue Ridge Mountain Mom – at 21:39

Libby -

The Pandemic Flu Awareness week is also a great thread for info to pass out.

http://tinyurl.com/g5fu5

Good luck in the meeting! Remember to be prepared and not panicked!! The Goju thread had a lot of great ideas in it. I myself have been pounding the pavement since the beginning of August when the news of the 100,000 rabid dogs being killed started to come to light.

I just adjust my tinfoil hat and swoosh right in. LOL! Just kidding! I actually dress like I’m going to a very important business meeting, leave my emotions at the door, and try to tailor my speech as much as possible. When I started on my ‘Mommy’ network, I started with the stats on how children die in our state and the percentages on that. Then I work towards gearing them up for an 80% CFR rate in the age group that ALL of our children are in. Boy, there’s no better way than getting a mom’s attention than through her children. In my play group, there are 8 mothers, and 4 are now prepping. I’m still working on the other 4, one of who is my best friend.

I’ve been working on my local health department since last year, and they’ve just now had a meeting. Check out MaMa’s article from 13:36. My play group has also been hounding them. Were we responsible for the meeting? We will never know. Did we make sure that they had accurate facts and figures? You bet your bottom dollar!

Anyway, this is a long and rambling post to the effect that you are not alone. There are other Georgians out there. You have to get 20 No’s before you get a Yes. We try to reach out to at least one person with the goal to get that person to reach out to at least one other person, etc. etc. etc.

And, you know what? If even 1 person out of 50–100 stops to listen to what I have to say, I consider that week a success. I am still prepping for me and mine. I have a long way to go and many family members to convince. I feel like Chicken Little each and every day, but I have to keep trying. I owe it to my daughter, my nieces, my nephews, and my godchildren. For me, it came down to the question of what I would do for my daughter. After some hard soul searching, I realized that I would be one of those people who turned to cannibalism if I could help her survive, and I don’t ever want to have to go there. Feeling like an idiot every day is a lot better than having to eat my neighbor! (Ok, so I would cook the beejeebies out of the chicken and the cows next door and eat them first, but you get the idea.)

amt – at 21:56

Blue Ridge Mountain Mom -

I am glad to hear I am not alone in thinking Georgia is especially behind on this issue. (Although I would rather hear that my perception is wrong and that there are great things I just don’t know about.)

Our City’s Public Health Department has a little list on their website but I am not reassured. The problem is that we have so many low income people here. Low-income people need to start thinking this one though because it takes longer to prep when you are on a budget. Alabama seems to be doing a better job than GA in this regard!

Blue Ridge Mountain Mom – at 22:41

amt - 21:56

I know what you mean about the low-income issue. There are a lot of people in my area on some kind of government assistance. You’ve got to love being a hillbilly in the sticks!! On the other hand, we’ve got a lot of people with land and gardens. I stress getting by with only prepping for the basics, ie milk, flour other things that you cannot grow, but I do assume that we will still be able to grow our own food. One of my prep strategies is to get people to extend their garden inside during the winter. (Of course, thanks to global warming, we are in a prime location for an outside winter garden as well.) I have folks growing different veggies in pots that they start once a week. It really saves money at the grocery store, especially if you team up with another mom (or dad!) to exchange the veggies with. (Of course, that really helps the grocery budget in general and doesn’t work for germ exchange during a pandemic.) I have found myself showing people how to grow potatoes in a garbage bag with some dirt in it.

I guess that I have taken Leavitt’s warnings to heart that we will be on our own. We are mountain-folk here born and bred. Some of us are more than willing to shoot anyone coming on our properties without a pandemic being in progress. ‘Official’ help is distrusted. Most people don’t believe anything that our elected officials say anyway. Just being a regular mom who grew up here and didn’t transplant into the area really helps me out with credibility. Dealing with an audience that 7 out of 10 times already has 2 weeks worth of food in the house just because the nearest grocery store is a 30 minute drive away also helps. Most people are on well water, have fireplaces and have access to other water and plenty of fuel. We are working on building a sense of community about the bird flu that will fight the FEAR that kept people from helping starving children in 1918. We mostly still know our neighbors, and I hope that we will still help each other out. I just don’t know.

What kills me? The freaking officials! I have more luck just out and about talking to people than I do with our lovely elected officials who are supposed to give a rat’s arse about the people who elected them. The Atlanta officials are even WORSE!! They believe that they’ve been tried by fire because of the 1996 Olympic bombings, and they’ve got their plans firmly in place. Sheesh!!

30 October 2006

anonymous – at 22:50

bump

31 October 2006

shadddup – at 08:30

Blue Ridge Mountain Mom – at 22:41

I just purchased a farm up in the mountains with many of those prerequisites being as you stated…wells, septic, wood burning stoves, livestock, gardens, etc. The fact that 5 is one of the few ways in or out would hopefully be a plus, especially if the community bands together.

Shad.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / H 5 N 1 Continues to Spread Over the US

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: H 5 N 1 Continues to Spread Over the US

30 October 2006

Mamabird – at 17:29

Two more detections of H5N1 have just been reported in the United States. See link, below:

http://wildlifedisease.nbii.gov/ai/LPAITable.pdf

This time in Niagra County, New York and Grundy County, Illinois. This is the second hit for Illinois.

tjclaw1 – at 21:47

Ugh, that’s really close to me. No reports in the news here yet.

31 October 2006

Fiddlerdave – at 05:01

Sarcasm: ON off Don’t worry! The US authorities aren’t going to report low path H5N1 anymore! It could make people nervous for the Christmas season, and we sure wouldn’t want to make people think of anything that might keep them out of the jammed cheek-to-jowl malls to spend their money, now do we? Don’t you feel better now to know how well you are being cared for? The CDC sez “A shopper’s mind is a terrible thing to….WORRY with these insignificant details!” Sarcasm: on OFF

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Conversations with a Virologist

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Conversations with a Virologist

07 October 2006

anon_22 – at 11:19

This thread is a continuation of the Talking to JKT thread, with the title changed to reflect a continuous learning process rather than specific events or comments.

And this is cross-posted from the News Thread for visibility.

HIGHLY RECOMMENDED free videocast from NIH:

Oct 5, Dr Jeffery Taubenberger delivered the annual NIAID Kinyoun Lecture on Influenza Viruses: Past and Future Threats. Dr. Joseph Kinyoun is considered the founder of NIH from its origin as the Laboratory of Hygiene, established in NY in 1887. NIAID has an annual lectureship named after him and it is a big honor to be asked to give it.

The videocast for the lecture is available here.

For those of you who are techno-phobic, here’s the link to test if your PC has the required componente to play it. Go to this link and click on ‘test plugin’. You may need to download and install the free Real Player.

De jure – at 12:27

Anon_22: That’s a good videocast. It got me to thinking the need for autopsy material of H5N1 victims is even more important than I originally thought. Taubenberger’s presentation also made me realize that efficient H5N1 H2H transmission is even more difficult than I originally thought (specifically the negligible effect when changes are made at the 190 and 225 positions). However, if I had one question to ask JKT right now, it would be what are the differences between the H1s in H1N1 and H5N1. Monotreme pointed out that they are very different, but I believe if we knew just how different, we might get answers to whether prior exposure and seasonal flu vaccinations will make a difference in slowing H5N1 down if it does go pandemic (whether it will be a 1918 or a 1968 pandemic). Again, though, there needs to be more world-wide collaboration on getting autopsy materials.

lugon – at 12:42

There’s also this from Albert-László Barabási, who knows a lot about networks. Worth exploring - his book “Linked” is good but I haven’t been able to re-borrow it to summarise it for us all.

lugon – at 12:44

you can look at the outline of the book, plus photos for every chapter, at http://www.nd.edu/~alb/

anon_22 – at 13:04

De jure – at 12:27

The N1 neuraminidase question:

This paper, hot off the press, A preliminary panorama of the diversity of N1 subtype influenza viruses, chen, gives an overview of this subject. I haven’t read it yet, but it looks interesting.

Abstract N1 subtype influenza viruses have caused many epidemics and even a few pandemics in humans, pigs and fowls including 1918 human H1N1 pandemic, which killed 20–50 million people and the current avian H5N1 pandemic in the Eastern Hemisphere, which has caused great economic losses and posed a severe threat to human public health. To elucidate the whole diversity of N1 influenza viruses from a dynamic view, 202 neuraminidase (NA) sequences of N1 subtype influenza isolates were selected and analyzed in this study. Our results showed that N1 influenza isolates could be divided into three distinct lineages (Human, Classic Swine and Avian), which largely circulated in the humans, pigs and fowls respectively, though viruses in the Avian lineage could infect mammals and even there was a sublineage in the Avian lineage wholly isolated from pigs. The Avian lineage and the Human lineage, which have existed at least for decades, possibly began divergence around in 1890 through regression analysis. Both of the Human and Avian lineages could be further divided into some sublineages, and the correlation between these lineages (or sublineages) and their isolation places, isolation time, hemagglutinin (HA) subtypes, host species, virulence, or epidemics were discussed. The panorama of the diversity of N1 influenza viruses presented in this study provided a framework for the studies on the evolution and epidemiology of N1 influenza viruses.

anon_22 – at 13:10

De jure – at 12:27 Taubenberger’s presentation also made me realize that efficient H5N1 H2H transmission is even more difficult than I originally thought

Yes, but looking at it from the molecular biologist point of view and looking at it from the epidemiologist point of view could result in totally different interpretations. Read my post at 19:48 on the previouw thread for revere’s thoughts on what the current outbreaks look like.

Grace RN – at 13:21

re: “De jure – at 12:27 “Taubenberger’s presentation also made me realize that efficient H5N1 H2H transmission is even more difficult than I originally thought”

At first I found that reassuring, until he mention the virulence of the inactived vaccine injected into animals and it still killed them….

And the reveres’ comment is gravely concerning as well.

anon_22 – at 13:26

Oh, and the truth is probably somewhere in between. :-)

anon_22 – at 13:27

Now THAT must have answered everybody’s questions completely.

LOL

De jure – at 13:44

Anon_22 at 13:10: I remember somberly considering this observation. The question that would still need to be answered would be this: is it a newly emerging disease that transmits oral-fecal, or will it ever go H2H efficiently via respiratory spread? If its the latter, I guess we’d all be affected eventually. I wonder what Revere would have to say further on this subject.

seacoast – at 13:49

Don’t know where else to comment on this, so I am putting it here ~ The Trust for America’s Health Report : “Pandemic Flu State of Science”, October, 2006. This is excellent and well written with information that can be understood by the lay person. This will be added to my hand-out information for Pandemic Awareness Week. If I am breaking any copy-rights laws, so be it, this is too important to worry about. I am sweeping a thirty mile radius where I live with information that is readiable, believable, and understandable. I am also going to the media, big and small.

Dennis in Colorado – at 13:59

See http://healthyamericans.org/reports/fluscience/FluScience.pdf as the link to the report Seacoast referred to above.

anon_22 – at 14:34

Still on De jure’s statement :-)

Taubenberger’s presentation also made me realize that efficient H5N1 H2H transmission is even more difficult than I originally thought (specifically the negligible effect when changes are made at the 190 and 225 positions).

I think you may be making a grave error in unconsciously, automatically, assuming some equivalence between transmission and receptor binding.

I think we need to figure out what we mean when we use the word ‘transmission’, first of all, and after that ask the question is ‘efficient’ transmission strictly on the molecular level sufficient for a pandemic to occur.

On the first question, what exactly is transmission? If it was a race for the virus to achieve a goal, where is the finish line, as far as transmission goes? When it enters a cell? When it replicates? When it causes disease? When new viral particles escape from the host cell to enter other host cells? When the virus has successfully established itself inside the host organism?

But surely when we talk about the virus’s ability to cause disease, we are talking about pathogenesis, right? Where does ‘transmission’ end ‘pathogenicity’ begin? Surely, for practical purposes, transmission is meaningless to the virus unless it can replicate and re-infect over and over again, which would by definition require a degree of pathogenicity?

Or is that ‘virulence’ we are talking about?

Who was it who said this about ‘respect’, “I can’t tell you what it is but I sure as hell can recognize it when I see it?”

The reason why I raise these seemingly ridiculous questions is that IMO it’s important to separate ‘concept’ from ‘process’ from ‘mechanism’.

And all of that from ‘clinical manifestation of disease’, aka real-life events like pandemics.

I can’t answer any of these questions that I am raising, FYI. :-)

lugon – at 15:06

anon_22 at 14:34 - would by definition require a degree of pathogenicity - not sure about that one, if influenza virus is transmissible during the incubation period. If we had an eternal incubation period (i.e., no disease) then we’d have a “lab only” pandemic.

Tom DVM – at 15:43

Hi everyone. Interesting discussion…thanks anon 22.

I thought I might as well make a few comments from my perspective as a veterinarian.

First, I would ask us to remove the minutia of the genotype from the discussion for the moment and concentrate on the expression of the genotype…the phentoype which in this case = disease…and the characteristics unique to H5N1.

We have only one equivalent virus to use as a comparable, H1N1 in 1918. In fact our template for observation really comes down to, in essence, one virus H1N1…because every pandemic of the 1900′s were due to the virus or two recombinants of the virus in 1957 and 1968…and I’m not quite sure than 1968 would qualify as a pandemic.

There was no bird die-off before 1918 which means H1N1 was a low virulence avian influenza and the 1918 pandemic was a direct mutant of the strain that lived symbiotically (harmmoniously) in birds…

…previous to 1918, there had been no influenza in pigs but H1N1 has also caused disease in pigs ever since 1918 when the zoonosis worked in reverse…from humans to pigs.

Now lets have a look at H5N1.

1) It is now pandemic in bird populations as well as endemic in Asia and soon probably to be endemic in Russian, the Mediteranean and Africa.

2) It has caused huge die-offs of poultry and die-offs of wild migratory birds…while at the same time having the ability to live asymptomatically in other species.

3) No influenza has been identified with other species in the past but H5N1 has maintained the ability to live asymptomatically in some members of a species while being lethal to other members or the species…particularly in cats, there has been no known influenza in the past…this is the first on record which is extremely significant in assessing threat level of H5N1.

4) Has the ability to be asymptomatic in pigs…we do not no if this was possible in 1918 or not…but asymptomatic infections in pigs and other species while maintaining lethality and not being asymptomatic in humans represents a significant future threat to our species.

5) Has the ability to explode geographically in an extremely short period of time.

6) In 1918, there was no avian-effect so concurrent pandemics in pigs, poultry and humans could create an associated food shortage.

Therefore, in my opinion, although I’m quite sure I forgot a lot of other unique characteristics in this list…I believe this virus is a ‘freak’ the like of has never been encountered in human history.

We don’t need genomes to tell us that this virus is adapting to animals and humans at the same time. I think the genome debates cloud the issue unneccesarily because they cloud what is happening at the moment before our eyes…

…if there is no barrier…and I think that question was answered in 1997, make no doubt about it…this is not going to be a ‘picnic in the park’.

moeb – at 15:54

well laid out Tom

Tom DVM – at 16:01

Thanks moeb.

De jure – at 16:09

Anon_22: Taubenberger in the videocast stated that there have only been 3 “H”s out of the 16 that have caused pandemics: H1, H2, and H3. His explanation of why the H’s from a molecular standpoint caused pandemics was interesting in that it only took a couple of changes in the hemagluttinen to switch from avian to human via the a2,6 receptors. Now, that leaves 13 other H’s. Why haven’t they ever caused pandemics? We can’t say that they might have in the past, because we’ve already concluded that the winning strain eliminates all of its competition (such as H1N1 did in 1918). Don’t get me wrong, because I’m not interpretting Taubenberger as saying that H5N1 “won’t” go pandemic; however, I am interpretting his comments as saying that this virus, because of its molecular structure, does not transmit easily from person to person. Yes, I agree with everyone here that it is extremely virulent. But so is ebola, yet I dare say we don’t have much to fear from efficient spread of that pathogen due to its structure. So, structurally, is H5N1 something that “can” spread efficiently? We’ve never really had a virologist answer that one, and that is the question of which I am most concerned. By the by, thanks for the hot-off-the-press N1 research. I look forward to reading it.

anonymous – at 16:32

De jure – at 16:09, we’ve already concluded that the winning strain eliminates all of its competition (such as H1N1 did in 1918).

It’s anon_22′s opinion that H1N1 was the only virus, so it looks like there is no consensus about this. At least on this website. I’m very sure of standard academic theory in the scientific community.

Other thread, anon_22 – at 19:20: “…all current human flu viruses are descendants of the 1918 virus H1N1.”

Maybe anon_22 can speak to this…

De jure – at 16:32

I should probably add why the structure of the virus is key for me. My grandfather used to teach and practice at a prestigious medical school. He was also one of the MASH doctors in the Korean War. One day he brought up the subject of what to him was mankind’s most pressing problem. He was sure that one day, probably not in his lifetime, the HIV virus would go airborne. He said once that happened we would all be in big trouble. I put great faith in my grandfather’s analyses, and worried about it for awhile. But then I started thinking yes, my grandfather knew a great deal about surgery and human anatomy (his research even contributed to the development of the heart and lung machine). However, my grandfather was not a virologist. How could he know whether the HIV virus could mutate in such a way? I’d give his analysis more weight than that of an engineer, but really, when looking at such problems, it seems best to start with an expert whose work is more relevant in the field. From a layman’s perspective, it does look like H5N1 could go pandemic, but it seems to me the virologists are saying, “we don’t know.” I can live with that, but I don’t think you can extrapolate “the pandemic is imminent” from “we don’t know.” Of course, I am prepping for a worst-case scenario, but you can’t say it will happen with certainty.

anon_22 – at 16:45

lugon – at 15:06 anon_22 at 14:34 - would by definition require a degree of pathogenicity - not sure about that one, if influenza virus is transmissible during the incubation period. If we had an eternal incubation period (i.e., no disease) then we’d have a “lab only” pandemic.

lugon, I was going to make a general comment that this is a philosophical debate and not a factual one. But you took that to a different level, so let me answer your challenge. What is the definition of an incubation period? The time before someone is symptomatic, or something to that effect, right? Surely, you cannot talk about incubation period unless there is something to incubate ie the disease.

Its like the saying “if a tree fell in a forest and no one heard it did it happen?……” :-)

anon_22 – at 16:56

anonymous ¨C at 16:32 De jure ¨C at 16:09, we¡¯ve already concluded that the winning strain eliminates all of its competition (such as H1N1 did in 1918).

Actually, I’m not sure that it always happens. I don’t know if we can draw conclusions about the few occurrences we are studying. (n<3)

It¡¯s anon_22¡äs opinion that H1N1 was the only virus, so it looks like there is no consensus about this. At least on this website. I¡¯m very sure of standard academic theory in the scientific community.

Other thread, anon_22 ¨C at 19:20: ¡°¡­all current human flu viruses are descendants of the 1918 virus H1N1.¡± Maybe anon_22 can speak to this¡­

No, it isn’t my opinion, it is a fact.

Think about the origins of the genes of our current H3N2 seasonal flu strain. After 1918, the only circulating strain was the H1N1 of 1918, or descendants of that, till 1957, when it reassorted with an unknown avian strain and acquired a new HA NA and PB1, and became H2N2. But the other 5 genes are from thae 1918 virus. Then in 1968, the HA and PB1 got swapped for new ones again. But the other 5 genes are still descendants of the 1918 virus.

So every single ‘human’ clade virus that we have characterized in the 20th century was from different clades or descendants of one single virus, and retain the vast portion of the internal genes of the 1918 H1N1.

lugon – at 16:57

yeah, ok, sorry - got carried away (but couldn’t help pressing “enter”)

LOL

(i even thought about a virus that would make us better people, but never mind)

anon_22 – at 16:58

anonymous

JKT explained that using PB2 as example on the videocast.

anon_22 – at 17:36

De jure – at 16:09 Anon_22: Taubenberger in the videocast stated that there have only been 3 “H”s out of the 16 that have caused pandemics: H1, H2, and H3. His explanation of why the H’s from a molecular standpoint caused pandemics was interesting in that it only took a couple of changes in the hemagluttinen to switch from avian to human via the a2,6 receptors. Now, that leaves 13 other H’s. Why haven’t they ever caused pandemics?

Well, the short answer is probably “we don’t know”. But the thing to notice is that he was using the example of receptor binding to illustrate certain points, such as the complexity of the possible rules, which we haven’t figured out yet. But to say we haven’t figured out the rules for receptor binding, does not imply that once we figured that out, we will have solved the transmission problem, because receptor binding is just one aspect that we are paying attention to, and there could be a whole number of other issues that we haven’t even defined or discovered yet. That is what I was trying to point out at 14:34.

We can’t say that they might have in the past, because we’ve already concluded that the winning strain eliminates all of its competition (such as H1N1 did in 1918).

As I said before, I don’t know if we can generalize it and say that is always the case.

Don’t get me wrong, because I’m not interpretting Taubenberger as saying that H5N1 “won’t” go pandemic; however, I am interpretting his comments as saying that this virus, because of its molecular structure, does not transmit easily from person to person.

I actually do agree with you on this, intuitively. I was only trying to point out the problems that can arise in our thought processes that might lead us down complete blind alleys. :-)

So the caveat is this, (bit like Bill Clinton), it depends on what you mean by “does not transmit easily”, and also, as compared to what?

We can only say that up to now, it has had plenty of opportunities, and so relatively speaking, it appears to be unable to acquire that ability as compared to our expectations. Since our expectations are built on extremely shaky grounds to say the least, we don’t really know whether it is true that it is difficult for H5N1 to achieve h2h (ie that this is a function unique to H5N1), or that there was something wrong with our expectations to start with..

On top of that, we don’t know enough about the rules governing its molecular structure to know whether this apparent difficulty in acquiring h2h is due to the molecular structure and not due to something else entirely, possibly something that we don’t even know about at this moment. Call it the X factor if you will.

Yes, I agree with everyone here that it is extremely virulent. But so is ebola, yet I dare say we don’t have much to fear from efficient spread of that pathogen due to its structure.

Here we come back to the question of “as compared to what?” If we think of H5N1 as an influenza virus, and automatically use the yardstick of influenza viruses, then we have a lot to fear from influenza than from ebola in terms of its transmissibility.

But that is correct only if it is valid to use other flu viruses that spread among humans that we know of (ie H1, H2, H3) as the yardstick against which to compare H5N1. The case for that is, well, that it is a flu virus. The case against that is that our understanding of human flu viruses is built on a very narrow knowledge base ie descendants of one single virus, the 1918 H1N1. We don’t really know that a flu virus with origins totally different from these descendants of 1918H1N1 can be expected to behave in a comparable manner. (see my comments on evolutionary bottleneck in the previous thread).

So, structurally, is H5N1 something that “can” spread efficiently?

Theoretically, I think so. We might hypothesize that by saying we have seen how it can spread efficiently in poultry. But HPAI only occurs with H5 and H7 strains, and not with H1 H2 H3, the current human subtypes. So we don’t know whether the rules of spread among poultry HPAI H5 & H7, possibly a unique disease involving complex as yet unknown virus-host interactions specific to domestic poultry, can be extrapolated to human spread. OTOH, we need to remember that in 2003, H7N7 infected a large group of poultry workers in Europe, and subsequently 58.9% of family members who did not have contact with infected poultry had positive H7 serology. Human-to-human transmission of avian influenza A/H7N7, The Netherlands, 2003, so we know that at least for H7 it is possible.

We’ve never really had a virologist answer that one, and that is the question of which I am most concerned. By the by, thanks for the hot-off-the-press N1 research. I look forward to reading it.

You’re welcome.

De jure – at 17:45

Anon_22 at 13:04: I’m having trouble with your link. Do I need special access for this article? Thanks again.

anon_22 – at 17:49

Yes, it’s a subscription site. Or you have to pay $$. :-(

De jure – at 17:57

It seems that anything relevant to virology costs money to access, whereas you can find anything dealing with epidemiology essentially for free. Hmmmm…this is all beginning to make sense to me now. No wonder virologists are more reticent to express their opinions…they had to pay dearly for them, so it doesn’t make “cents” to give them away for free! :-)

anon_22 – at 17:59

De jure – at 17:57

That’s funny! lol

anonymous – at 22:55

did H5 evolve from 1958 H2 ? Do those infected with H2 in 1958–1967 have some immunity against H5 ? How can one human pandemic strain wipe out all the other strains when the main reservoir is in birds ? When we have 15HAs and 9NAs, then how many PB2a,PB1s,PAs,NPs,Ms,NSs are there ?

08 October 2006

anon_22 – at 09:22

anonymous – at 22:55 did H5 evolve from 1958 H2 ? Do those infected with H2 in 1958–1967 have some immunity against H5 ?

No & No

How can one human pandemic strain wipe out all the other strains when the main reservoir is in birds ?

Well, let’s say the other strains disappeared from human circulation.

When we have 15HAs and 9NAs, then how many PB2a,PB1s,PAs,NPs,Ms,NSs are there ?

Don’t know that we have any data on that.

anonymous – at 09:35

when even H3N2-vaccine has a chance to help against H5N1 then H2N2 antibodies should have an even larger chance because of the similarities of H5 and H2. That the other strains disappear from human circulation must mean, that we get immunity against them by the pandemic. I mean, the strains are not “fighting” each other to diminish the other one, and there is enough place on earth for 2 strains… We have almost as much data on PB2,.. as we have on HA,NA

anon_22 – at 09:37

Tom DVM ¨C at 15:43

We have only one equivalent virus to use as a comparable, H1N1 in 1918. In fact our template for observation really comes down to, in essence, one virus H1N1¡­because every pandemic of the 1900¡äs were due to the virus or two recombinants of the virus in 1957 and 1968¡­and I¡¯m not quite sure than 1968 would qualify as a pandemic.

1968 qualified as a pandemic cos it was a global outbreak of a new human virus. But its fatality rate was not significantly higher than seasonal flu. That puts into question what De jure was asking about immunity against the neuraminidase protein.

There was no bird die-off before 1918 which means H1N1 was a low virulence avian influenza and the 1918 pandemic was a direct mutant of the strain that lived symbiotically (harmmoniously) in birds

No, only H5 and H7 are known to acquire the peculiar molecular changes in the cleavage site of the HA to cause HPAI. It is possible that H1 is inherently unable to change in that way. Again we bump into the question of whether we can even use 1918 as a template, as you said earlier in the post. Taubenberger did tell me that there are historical accounts from the mid 19th century of poultry outbreaks which seemed to be exactly the same as HPAI as we observe it now.

¡­¡­previous to 1918, there had been no influenza in pigs but H1N1 has also caused disease in pigs ever since 1918 when the zoonosis worked in reverse¡­from humans to pigs.

yes

Now lets have a look at H5N1.

5) Has the ability to explode geographically in an extremely short period of time.

Well, that is for HPAI which may or may not be a model for humans. see 16:57 post second last paragraph.

6) In 1918, there was no avian-effect so concurrent pandemics in pigs, poultry and humans could create an associated food shortage.

True

Therefore, in my opinion, …I believe this virus is a ¡®freak¡¯ the like of has never been encountered in human history.

Agree

We don¡¯t need genomes to tell us that this virus is adapting to animals and humans at the same time. I think the genome debates cloud the issue unneccesarily because they cloud what is happening at the moment before our eyes¡­

Yes, just look at the clusters.

janetn – at 10:49

Thanks for explaining such a complex subject in a way even us laypeople can get it.

a’Akova – at 12:46

De jure – at 16:32 said “From a layman’s perspective, it does look like H5N1 could go pandemic, but it seems to me the virologists are saying, “we don’t know.” I can live with that, but I don’t think you can extrapolate “the pandemic is imminent” from “we don’t know.””

This is similar to asking a weather forcaster whether tropical depression X will obliterate a city. The best he can say is “we don’t know”. But historically some tropical depressions turn into tropical storms, and some tropical depressions turn into hurricanes, and some hurricanes obliterate cities.

The risks against which we should prepare ourselves aren’t limited to what H5N1 might do, but include any number of other disasters including hurricanes, tornados, earthquakes, volcanos, disease outbreaks, or even the odd winter storm which boxes us in without power for a couple of days.

Grace RN – at 20:25

anon_22 – at 14:34

My comment re: H5N1 not so easily transmissable was in the context of bird-human, and to date, H-H.

Re: when, Taubenberg seen to quasi-answer,as I suppose any of us could, with the same answer-no one truly knows IF H5N1 will go pandemic, no one knows when the pandemic will occur, and no one knows how severe the next pandemic will be.

It seems I-for one-am back to the same starting point as I was in 1998 regarding the when/how bad. What I’ve learned in between-and a good deal from fluwkie and all the contributors-could spell the difference in my family surviving or not.

anon_22 – at 21:45

Grace, I think one lesson for all of us, is to learn that there are never easy answers that someone in ‘authority’ can give to you and that you can bet your family’s lives on. We all need to make our own risk assessments, and learn to cope as best we can with uncertainties. In a weird way, there may be times when for some people it is easier if someone tells them for sure disaster is going to happen, than for them to learn to accept that no one can tell them what is the right thing to do. Examples of people who are fervently religious and will follow one single line of doctrine meticulously and unquestioningly come to mind. I don’t have anything against people who choose to do that, but I’m pointing it out as examples of how bad certainties may sometimes appeal to some people more than good uncertainties.

Just saying…..

09 October 2006

Tom DVM – at 00:29

“but I’m pointing it out as examples of how bad certainties may sometimes appeal to some people more than good uncertainties.”

Hi everyone. Interesting comments.

I think that it might be useful to reflect on the past twelve months. Twelve months ago, H5N1 was isolated in Asia. There had been no significant clusters and no real evidence of H-H. The CFR was lower a year ago than today…

…my point is that I have not seen one bit of evidence in the past year to indicate a trend other a very serious situation faces us sooner rather than later…

…If there is evidence otherwise I would like to see it presented so that I can feel better about the trend-line.

For me it is not a matter of bad certainties being more attractive…it is all about the fact there are is no good news.

felidsdan@msn.com – at 01:50

“The recent announcements of H5N1 bird flu in cats in Indonesia strongly signal the existence of a separate mammalian H5N1 reservoir in Indonesia that is responsible for the vast majority of human cases” An asymptomatic “carrier” that is spreading the virus through fecal matter contamination directly to humans or to their most common predator, cats. With their high metabolism and body temperature, shrews come to mind………

lugon – at 04:02

http://www.fluwikie.com/pmwiki.php?n=Consequences.4Quadrants

lugon – at 04:03

Sorry, the above should be http://www.fluwikie.com/pmwiki.php?n=Consequences.FourQuadrantsForPlanning

Patch – at 08:10

TomDVM @ 00:29 - …my point is that I have not seen one bit of evidence in the past year to indicate a trend other a very serious situation faces us sooner rather than later…

I can give you one (one I’m sure you’ll quickly dismiss). It’s been over a year. What is “sooner rather than later”?

The infection has spread among birds and that has certainly increased human contact and therefore, IMO, transmission to humans and a larger number of human cases. I don’t doubt things COULD get worse or I wouldn’t be here. I’m just saying……

lugon – at 08:31

It will be gradual until it stops being gradual, but we don’t know where’s the threshold to a pandemic.

Patch – at 09:47

lugon - @ 8:31

It will be gradual until it stops being gradual, but we don’t know where’s the threshold to a pandemic.

Or, if this (H5N1) will even lead to one.

Medical Maven – at 10:21

My take on this thread is that it will be the wierdest outcome in the history of virology is H5N1 continues to spread, adapt, entrench, etc. and then at the end of the day humans do not pay the piper.

Tom DVM – at 10:45

“Or, if this (H5N1) will even lead to one.”

Patch.

I think there is a close correlation between the Asian tsunami and H5N1. It is interesting to a pattern collector like me that the third last serious pandemic was in 1830 and the second last tsunami was in 1825 which was thought to have killed twenty-five thousand people in the Asian-Pacific Basin…

…There are many things we agree on…one of which is that nature time and human time are two very different things. I agree with you that the absence of a pandemic to this point, could be considered indirect evidence that we will not have one but that would be to ignore the history of both influenza pandemic and other biological/pathogen based catastrophe’s which are sort of my stock and trade…

…Then scientific community has reached consensus on one point if you reflect where we were with H5N1 a year ago and where we are now…and the consensus is that H5N1 in endemic in Asia and will soon be endemic in other parts of the world…and while H1N1 has dominated influenza’s in humans over the past century we are currently somewhere within the process of ‘a changing of the guard’…or that H5N1 will influence human health either directly or through reassortment and recombination.

I search out patterns in nature that many would think would have no relation to H5N1…like sunspots and global warming’s relationship to viral adaption and mutation (evolution). I do this because as a practising veterinarinan I could see a close relationship between pathogen, localized epidemics and environment…

…these patterns lead to intuition that I would welcome any comments and criticisms on…

1) I believe we are poised today for a pandemic, however I do not know nature’s time and I do not have the irrefutable historical data to be able to predict accurately onset times…however, I believe intuitively it will be before the end of Apr. next year (2007).

2) I believe that evolution occurs by small steps and by leaps…and I believe H5N1 has achieved the threshold by which the final adaption (summit) will most likely occur in one last leap.

3) I believe when the pandemic virus does emerge, it will be confused with Dengue Fever and will follow a step-wise process identical to what is going on in India right now.

4) I believe the pandemic will emerge from North Korea with China as a close second possibility.

5) I believe the pandemic will be as bad or probably worse than 1918 because history has demonstrated that 1918 is the rule rather than the ‘exception to the rule’…previous pandemics of equivalent lethality…1918, 1890, 1830 which equal three of the past six pandemics.

6) I believe our response to the pandemic will be relatively far less effective than in 1918 and we will have less technology (pharmaceuticals etc) to respond to the pandemic then they had in 1918 and the losses due to collateral damage will be relatively worse than in 1918 and wiil equal the direct mortality of the pandemic in scope.

7) I think we have entered a period of ‘shifting sands’ relative to pathogens and their natural weaponization and emergence…and I believe we will have approx. three pandemics within the next twenty years from influenza alone.

8) We had better ‘get smart’ in a hurry…time is running out for the human race…metaphorically of course.

lugon – at 11:04

Or, if this (H5N1) will even lead to one.

Yes, of course. There could be another virus that comes sooner, or there could be reassortment or recombination or whatever, or it could take veeeeeeery long.

To me it looks like things are not getting any better, but of course Nature may pull some hidden brake, or there may be some hidden limit, or whatever.

We don’t know.

I (mostly) agree with Tom DVM. Sadly.

Medical Maven – at 11:38

Tom, is that just a hunch on North Korea being the primo prospect for panflu emergence?

De jure – at 11:57

Tom DVM at 10:45: “…these patterns lead to intuition that I would welcome any comments and criticisms on…” And Linus Pauling, who was twice awarded the Nobel prize, believed that Vitamin C was the cure-all for just about everything. Tom, it’s easy to get stuck to the flypaper, so to speak. When one locks himself or herself into one theory at the expense of looking into any other possibilities, then one is more apt to reject out of hand the data that doesn’t fit the paradigm. Yes, we are looking at a scary situation, but there does appear to be some data that lies outside of the worst-case scenario. JKT’s comments, for instance, suggest that this H5N1 virus has a structure which doesn’t readily adapt itself to easy human to human transmission. Until I saw this videocast, I was searching for what other virologists besides Webster had to say on this topic. I respect your opinions as they relate to zoontic infection patterns (humans, of course, being one of the animals in the animal kingdom!) but nobody seems to know how this virus will behave structurally in a human-to-human transmission scenario. I don’t believe anyone here is arguing that we should put off prepping because of the threat; however, it does no good to build the anxiety level unless and until you have more experts with data in hand weighing in on the situation. I would like to see more comments by JKT and others as more data becomes available (thanks again, Anon_22, for going the extra distance to provide another viewpoint). I believe we get into dangerous territory when we wed ourselves to a theory and won’t look at what other experts have to say. That is not what science is based on. I admire your courage in detailing your inner-most thoughts on this threat. Believe me, I won’t be disappointed if your predictions don’t come about. However, we just don’t have enough virologists weighing in on this subject. Don’t you find that a bit curious? I suspect you would say that they don’t want to stick their necks out or that they are being told not to panic the public. But I refuse to believe that the whole profession of virology is being restrained by the corruptible influence of politics and ego. Why haven’t more virologists taken part in any of the discussions that we’ve had on this website (or any other public forum?) I don’t know. I like a good puzzle, but I find there are too many pieces missing out of this one to come up with any definitive answers. Again, that won’t stop me from assessing the risk, but again, it doesn’t give me any definitive answers.

Tom DVM – at 12:07

Hi Medical Maven. Well sort of. Here is how I did it. North Korea has basically one ally in the world, it’s neighbour China. North Korea has been chronically short of food for quite a long time…one very important way for China to make friends and influence allies, is to provide food to the malnournished etc.

This means that poultry products unsuitable for Chinese citizens will have found its way to North Korea and that would include live chickens.

We know that China has covered up significant H5N1 outbreaks probably from 1996-present and we know that in the intervening time, there production of poultry has more than doubled.

This circumstancial information leads me to believe that you can’t consider China without its twin sister North Korea in all of this…and since there is only one country in the world more secretive than China and that is North Korea…the pandemic will likely start there or start in China. Any attempt to control it in China will fail as the pandemic will accelerate in North Korea.

On another matter, where would we think that North Korea got its nuclear technology if not from China…a countries with established spy networks developed the atomic bomb after world war…

…North Korea is a closed country both intellectually and socially…it would be pretty hard for a country in the Middle Ages to develop nuclear energy without the help of their closest ally.

De jure – at 12:16

Tom, and I thought you suspected North Korea because reportedly Kim Jong Il’s favorite cartoon character was Daffy Duck…well, I guess we can all be glad that at least it wasn’t Foghorn Leghorn.

Tom DVM – at 12:24

One other thing. Dr. JFT is a very focused researcher who along with a large team, has done the world a great service and pulled off what to me is one of the greatest scientific feats of all time: one that will no doubt be rewarded with a Nobel Prize a few decades from now…

…but one that is so focused can by definition not see the whole picture and I’m sure that Dr. JFT would be the first to say it if given an opportunity…

…Dr. Webster has to be considered the number one authority because he has, as I understand it, been studying primarilly influenza for fifty-years. Dr. Osterhaus is a brillant virologist. He identified and proved that SARS was in fact the corona virus. However, he spends time on many different kinds of viruses.

Tom DVM – at 12:32

De jure.

Sometimes (more often than not) generalists see things more clearly than specialists. If one only concentrates on influenza in birds for instance, they would miss the mutations and other changes including widening habitats going on with parasites to animals and plants, bacteria, fungi, and viruses that did not begin very long ago but is consistently accelerating at this time…

…you can’t understand one of them (H5N1) without understanding all of them.

I have no doubt that global warming, sunspot activity and other unknown pressors are acting here and have been for some time. Medical Maven says that we are in for unprecedented levels of sunspots until 2012 and therefore, there is not going to be a trend change until that time…and we will deal with lag effects for probably ten years after that until 2022 approx.

I think flu wiki is a leader because of a wide range of generalists from every concievable angles are pushing each other to greater heights…the ‘hive mind’ at work…credits to whoever first coined the phrase here.

diana – at 12:32

I thought Kim Jong was ill? In his case if we are lucky, terminally? Who would replace him? I also thought China was trying to reign him in. Perhaps the information I have been reading is wrong. I really haven’t been keeping track since there are so many new stories that I get from the internet, since newspapers and T.V. and radio seem to trim news to their own agendas. The internet of course is a hotbed of misinformation as well as news that regular channels don’t deem fit for us to read.

De jure – at 12:36

Tom at 12:24: Who does see the whole picture? That’s my point. If we were to use a connect-the-dots puzzle as an example for this situation, most folks who have spoken out on the issue would say we have enough dots to connect. I believe JFT might say we are missing the head, face, torso, etc. of the beast, while most others have simply inferred where the dots would be based on what they think the head, face, etc. look like. I get what you’re saying. I think the beast could look how you’ve drawn it (terribly ferocious, as you’ve described). However, we might need another professional group to tell us where the rest of the dots are (e.g. virologists). Would I wait for their opinion? No. By the way, how is your prepping coming along? I agree that JFT, Webster and Osterhaus are exemplary in their fields. I wonder, why is Dr. Osterhaus not as vocal as Dr. Webster on this issue, would you imagine?

Klatu – at 12:52

Mammalian H5N1 Evolution in Indonesia

Recombinomics Commentary October 7, 2006

“The recent announcements of H5N1 bird flu in cats in Indonesia, coupled with results from expanded sequencing of poultry strongly signal the existence of a separate mammalian H5N1 reservoir in Indonesia that is responsible for the vast majority of human cases.

This separate reservoir creates significant problems, because most of the attention has focused on infected poultry, and the mammalian reservoir has been significantly under investigated and under reported.

Therefore, a review of the evolution of this mammalian reservoir is useful. Although Indonesia did not acknowledge H5N1 infections until 2004, the first isolates were from birds in 2003. Sequence analysis of the 2003 and 2004 isolates indicated the H5N1 was Clade 2 and had a number of genetic markers that were specific for Indonesia.

The first human case was reported in July of 2005, and the sequence of the isolate, A/Indonesia/5/2005 had the Indonesia specific markers, but also had a number of unique polymorphisms, including one that created a novel HA cleavage site, RESRRKKR. However, the second human isolate, A/Indonesia/6/2005 had the more common HA cleavage site, RERRRKKR, and was similar to bird isolates. Subsequent human isolates in 2005 had the novel cleavage site, but several had an additional silent change, so although the cleavage site matched the first sequence at the protein level, there were a number of changes at the nucleotide level that divided the sequences with the novel cleavage site into two groups.

However, as the number of sequences increased in early 2006, it became increasingly clear that the human sequences were separating from the poultry sequences, all of which had the common bird cleavage site. The first match of the human sequences was from H5N1 from a throat swab of a cat in Indramayu near a residence were two siblings died from H5N1 infections. The sequence of the cat isolate not only matched the more recent human sequences, but was very close to the sequences of the isolates from the two siblings, A/Indonesia/283H/2006 and A/Indonesia/286H/2006, as well as other human isolates from Indramayu, A/Indonesia/292H/2006 and A/Indonesia/304H/2006. New isolates in 2006 collected from patients in East and West Java were sequenced and all were matches of more recent sequences such as the four human and one cat isolate from Indramayu.

In May of 2006 however, there was a new cluster in the Karo regency in north Sumatra. This outbreak was the largest to date and involve secondary and tertiary transmissions of H5N1. Consequently a meeting was call by WHO and consultants in Jakarta in June. Included in the presentation was a phylogenetic tree that summarized the H5N1 Indonesian isolates as of June 12, 2006.

The tree, which had the human sequences in green and the Karo cluster shaded in pink, clearly showed the match problem. All of the sequences with the novel cleavage site were on the lower portion of the tree and there were no poultry sequences on these two lower branches. Moreover, all of the recent human sequences from Java were on the lowest branch, which was even further from the poultry isolates. Thus, the human isolates were evolving away from the poultry isolates, suggesting the existence of a separate mammalian reservoir.

However, all of the human isolates were from July, 2005 or later, while most of the bird isolates were from earlier dates. Therefore 91 samples were schedule for shipment to Australia for virus isolation and sequencing. The samples were from infections between September, 2005 and March, 2006.

As sequences from these more recent and geographically dispersed isolates began to be published, it was becoming increasingly clear that the vast majority of the human infections on Java were not from domestic poultry. Each human sequence mapped to the lower portion of the tree and which was more distinct from the bird sequences.

The second set of new bird sequences included an isolate with the novel cleavage site. It was from a duck on Indramayu isolated in 2006. However, that isolate match the upper branch of the human sequences, which were composed of six isolates from three patients in 2005. Thus, although every human isolate in 2006 was matching the lower branch, the one duck sequence matched the upper branch.

The third set of poultry sequence had two matched with the lower branch. However, the two matches were from chickens in central Sumatra from 2005. Thus, none of the poultry isolates matched the lower human branch, while all human isolates, as well as the cat isolate, matched the lower human branch.

  • These data again supported a separate reservoir for the human sequences, and the only matches on Java were from the one cat, and all human isolates. The recent announcement indicates more H5N1 has been detected in cats, but the sequences of those isolates have not been released. Swine H5N1 sequences have been reported, but none match the human sequences.

The match failures pose a major problem because testing of humans is largely limited to patients how have been near dead or dying poultry. However, the poultry association has not been linked to the human infections, so an expanded testing of patients with symptoms is warranted. Similarly, more sequencing of H5N1 from other reservoirs is warranted by the match failures between mammalian and avian sequences.”

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/10070602/H5N1_Indonesia_Mammalian.html

The following may help connect another dot.

http://www.fao.org/docrep/004/ab986e/ab986e09.htm

De jure – at 13:04

Dr. Niman, IMHO, is a brilliant man but refuses to admit that he could ever be wrong, about anything. It reminds me of the old saying, “I thought I was wrong about something once, but I was mistaken.” Without any other virologists weighing in on this debate, we as a fluwikie group will either be great visionaries, or complete imbeciles. Oh well. Reminds me of another saying: “‘tis better to be a live dog than a dead lion.”

Medical Maven – at 13:04

Tom, if there is some “evil eye” on some mountain top ready to radiate panflu to the rest of the world I have no doubt that North Korea would be a prime candidate. Forget about Africa being the “Heart of Darkness”, it is that Hermit Kingdom lurching along, something straight out of the Middle Ages as you said. And maybe ready to grace us with a plague out of the Middle Ages.

OnandAnonat 13:33

It would not be the first time in history, by far too many, that epedemiologists followed the wrong clue for too long because of what everyone “knows”, witness the search for H. Influenzae during 19181–1925.

It may be that there is another mammalian reservoir for this flu. If so, that would seem to be bad news, no?

Klatu – at 13:36

De jure – at 13:04 wrote:

Dr. Niman, IMHO, is a brilliant man but refuses to admit that he could ever be wrong, about anything.


Lets chew on the following….

“Next influenza pandemic may not be due to H5N1

Chinese Medical Journal, 2006, Vol. 119 No. 17 : 1458–1464

CONCLUSION

“In Netherlands/Germany in 2003, the highly pathogenic H7N7 influenza viruses that was lethal to poultry infected the eyes of more than 80 people and killed one person; H6 and H9 have spread from a wild aquatic bird reservoir to domestic poultry over the past 10 years.

H9N2 viruses have also been associated with human infections in the mainland of China and Hong Kong. Avian influenza H10N7 seems to have crossed the species barrier from poultry to people for the first time. Hence, it is possible that the next influenza pandemic may not be due to H5N1.

http://tinyurl.com/k6sds

Klatu – at 13:42

Given a choice, I prefer to be a breathing, “visionary - imbecile”. My 2-cents. Consider the sources and follow the money, before you make up your mind.

Dude – at 14:04

Hi all, the graphs of the individual cases are on singtome (Individuals info for graph(1)(1).10.06.2006). I tend to let the data speak for itself. All of our study about the H5 binding site and the N1 properties etc. have great import but limited focus. We don’t have enough science yet! So, to ask a scientist to speculate, you get a perfectly reasonable answer given the context. I keep stressing on my posts, that we need to look at what we can also say about what we do know. Floridagirl deserves the credit for taking my idea and putting so much effort into making it easy for us to see what is happening. Look and see what your thoughts are about this presentation of the data. I also put up a series of graphs in which I extrapolated the case onset dates from her data and plotted all of the cases worldwide. Don’t get concerned about 9 cases in one day etc. Sometimes the data had no information that allowed us to pinpoint the exact date and I simply distributed the unknowns on the 15th of the month. So there is a small bias in there that does not affect the overall import of the data. All cases plotted for each year are (2003individualcases, 2004individualcases, etc.)

Grace RN – at 14:49

Pandemic are recurrent events, and unstoppable at this point in time. Earthquakes are recurrent events, with a field of scientists as desperate as we are looking for a way to predict them to help reduce loss of life etc.

That said; all that is left is to live in awareness of such possibilities, plan for the worst, hope for the best and enjoy each microsecond we have. Try to help others do the same.

In 100 years our great-great grandchildren might laugh saying- oh no-not able to predict and prevent such things?! Such backward times they lived in ….

[I’m hoping that’s what they say, at least]

De jure – at 14:59

Katu at 13:36: I agree completely. I’ve always said it wouldn’t surprise me if we see H7N7 before H5N1, due to its ability to efficiently spread. Whatever strain emerges as the next human pandemic, it won’t be pleasant. And one can’t argue with the growing numbers of H5N1 victims. But we still don’t know if the outbreaks in Indonesia, China, etc. will explode or not. I think now as compared to a year ago that there is a higher chance that it will happen, but I’m no expert. Lots of folks probably thought that at one time or another (especially around ‘67) that the Soviets were poised to nuke us. Who knows, they still might. There were plenty of circumstances to indicate there was a high probability that this would happen, so much so that many good citizens built bomb shelters (with good money, I might add). I’m not saying they were foolish for doing so. I might have done the same. But I would have only done so after getting all of the info that I could, preferably from those who knew something about missile accuracy, nuclear detonations, etc. Up until now, we haven’t really had (with the exception of Dr. Niman) any virologists say WHY they don’t know if H5N1 could transmit efficiently. For that matter, we really don’t know why Dr. Webster feels the way he does. So here we have JKT explain that based on what virologists know about lethal flu strains, H5N1 doesn’t work like the others in human to human infectivity (based on positions 190 and 225 in the hemagluttinin sequence). Now I’m not willing to bet that H5N1 will never learn how to go H2H efficiently (especially not on the CDC’s lukewarm, unsuccessful and probably dangerous attempts to get it to reassort with H3N2). Yes, I’m still prepping, but there are major questions that still need to be answered.

anon_22 – at 15:14

This is a great discussion! I have reservations about some of the stuff that Niman says as you all know but I do think he has a point about Indonesia. Monotreme and I have been speculating about mammalian hosts for a little while, and it seems to me the more we fail to find poultry isolates that match the human ones, the more urgent is the need to look for alternative reservoir(s). The hypothesis about cats is a perfectly reasonable one, which one can’t prove one way or the other for the moment, but it is entirely compatible with what we are seeing and what we do know about H5N1. The larger the number of human cases, particularly with recent increased anxiety from Indonesian authorities, it would be very odd not to be able to find significant no of matching bird sequences.

I don’t think there is anything that JKT is saying that is incompatible with that. I’m sure he probably speculates as much as any of us about this in private.

I just wish we have more a) bird samples clearly identified as being obtained from the immediate area of specific human cases, and samples from b) cats, and c) pigs. Intuitively, I’m more inclined to lean towards cats as more likely reservoirs than pigs at the moment, one simple reason being Indonesia is a largely muslim country, so pig farming shouldn’t be prevalent at all, except in non-Muslim islands like Bali, where we are not seeing human outbreaks!

In addition, we already know for sure that H5N1 a) can infect cats, b) can be asymptomatic in cats, c) can be transmitted from cat to cat. None of which has been clearly demonstrated in pigs, apart from rare isolates for which we have no history!

Medical Maven – at 15:23

De jure at 14:59-I may be missing something, but with H5N1 being so unlike other influenzas, would it be so strange for its “infectivity” to be out of the mold also? And that we know even less about the possible trajectories for this influenza virus as opposed to the other viruses that we have become familiar with and studied? I just saw another recent article about how the “experts” are deviating more and more from the standard wisdom that the Black Plague was spread by fleas. It more likely a rogue virus, just like H5N1 seems to be. LIke Tom DVM repeatedly points out it is a “freak”, and he gives the reasons why.

So we are dealing with a “freak”. Trust your instincts, (as I know you are), and be afraid, very afraid.

anon_22 – at 15:23

So what do we actually know for sure?

  1. pandemics happen
  2. they tend to kill lots of people
  3. influenza A viruses can infect new species every now and then, and when they do, eg pigs, they can persist
  4. H5N1 can infect humans
  5. H5N1 can go h2h
  6. H5N1 can infect cats and cause fatal disease
  7. H5N1 can, after jumping the species barrier from bird to cat, immediately go cat2cat efficiently, killing a lot of them!
  8. The number of human cases continue to increase
  9. The proportion of human cases that are in clusters appear to increase steadily (not erratically!)
  10. in other countries with human outbreaks except for Indonesia, the human H5N1 sequences have a high degree of correspondence to the avian ones
  11. Indonesia has the most no of human cases, highest fatality, and apparent difficulty in eradication (which may or may not be directly related to inadequate culling of poultry).
  12. Indonesia also has the unique problem of having an increasingly odd mismatch between avian and human sequences
  13. Indonesia is a Muslim country, ie there shouldn’t be a large swine reservoir
Krazer – at 16:08

A question that often reoccurs to me when the subject of the H7 outbreak in Holland is why did it stop. I realise the symptoms were just a conjunctivitis and not in the lungs but when so many of the family members of the poultry workers were infected why or where did it stop.

cottontop – at 16:30

TomDVM

you have put chills down my spine! I just don’t want to accept what you’ve been saying, but I respect your attention to pattern. My father was like that, and damned if he didn’t get it right. I “hear” alot of my father in your words, and I respected this man, for all his wisdom. You seem level headed, rational enough, to look, and get a feel for the situation. I dearly wish my father and I could discuss this. It’s right up our alley. Instead of talking to you, I’d be talking to him. So you’ve sorta filled a “void” for me, with your voice. You sound alot like him. (Just a thank you. I don’t feel so alone, for him not being here to guide me.)

Pixie – at 17:40

Thanks Klatu - The FAO report you posted is interesting. Looking at the chart on slaughterhouses by geographical area, it seems that the areas that had the greatest number of ruminent processing plants (goats, sheep, cattle) are also the areas in which we are seeing human infections:

The relationship between the much larger number of ruminent processing plants (and thus probably livestock) in these areas and human infections may simply be a function of larger and denser human populations in those areas vs. the other 23 areas listed on the chart. I have no theory at all forming from this - I just thought the data was interesting. Klatu’s FAO link: http://tinyurl.com/mevn5

anon_22 – at 19:17

Krazer – at 16:08

A question that often reoccurs to me when the subject of the H7 outbreak in Holland is why did it stop. I realise the symptoms were just a conjunctivitis and not in the lungs but when so many of the family members of the poultry workers were infected why or where did it stop.

Most of the family members were asymptomatic. Which means that the virus had acquired some limited h2h ability, but not enough fitness to survive the host immune response. And they culled millions and millions of poultry, after which they put in more stringent biosecurity measures.

Tom DVM – at 23:28

cottontop. Thanks for your most kind words.

About that comment…”you have put chills down my spine!”

I treat everyone here as a trusted colleague…I believe the truth sets you free…and I believe that everyone understands that I am only giving one opinion…

… an essential part of the ethical equation is that we continue to question each other and build and re-build hypotheses such that we can follow an interesting scientific dilemma with the hopes of being of some help.

In science, hopefully chills are quickly replaced by genuine intrigue and interest. /:0)

I know that is the case with you and I hope you will continue to contribute. Thanks again.

Tom DVM – at 23:31

anon 22 15:23.

You just did it again…clear, concise and complete.

Tom DVM – at 23:47

“If we were to use a connect-the-dots puzzle as an example for this situation, most folks who have spoken out on the issue would say we have enough dots to connect.”

De jure.

I guess I would give the analogy of the psychologist asking what the random dots in the picture draw for the patient. Each patient is going to give a different interpretation and a different final picture…in science we all bring our particular professional prejudice’s to the table and that also complicates things a little bit.

I can’t use the genotype to predict this thing because I can’t get my head around the thing and I don’t think the virologists have either…they have a lot of theories though and hopefully after this pandemic, we will have more answers for the next time…

…Why don’t you try looking at it then, for the moment, from my perspective…suspend all of your genuine interest in the genome for a few minutes and consider the following…

…go back 16 months to Apr. 2005…and follow the progression of events…remember all of the opinions the experts have given…for example after Q. lake the comment was that ‘dead birds don’t fly’…and the comment from the retiring regional head of the WHO who said that this thing (H5N1) has ‘made a liar’ out of every expert that has commented in the past eight years.

Observe what I observe…the phenotypic changes in the virus, the geographical spread, the clinical cases in humans in distinct geographical locations, the silence in Africa in the past few months and the lack of H5N1 in North America as of yet…

…my personal opinion is the genotype discussion cloud the issue simply because we don’t know enough from the genotype analysis to make any solid conclusion in respect to adaption etc.

…remove genotype from consideration and follow the phenotype and things start to clear…

…I only want you to do this for a few minutes before you get back to work on that genotype because if anyone can pull something out of that black hole it will be you and Monotreme and NS1 and the others that I am forgetting to mention here.

Olymom – at 23:48

I keep thinking of rodents — roof rats, mice, voles — that can scurry and poop everywhere. I sure wish I would hear of someone taking blood samples and looking for H5N1 in Indonesian rodents (Indian too)

Tom DVM – at 23:50

De jure. By the way, I really like your ‘connect the dots’ analogy because that’s exactly how I see things…at first a set of random dots but eventually the dots coalesce into a clear picture.

The trick is to analyse the dots in the periphery where no one else is looking and connect the ones that seem completely unrelated to the problem at hand.

Tom DVM – at 23:55

Olymom. I agree.

Cats are a highly effective predator species…this tells me that although cats may be an important intermediary, they are not the hidden mammalian vector…which would be a species that most importantly wild cats would prey on…the ones you mention certainly would fit the bill…

…but I wouldn’t rule out bats because they always seem to be the index species…SARS and Nipah virus etc.

10 October 2006

Dude – at 00:01

Anon_22 @15:23 point #8:

http://tinyurl.com/oe4z3

Also look at the summary data on singtomeohmuse in the spreadsheet (Individuals info for graph(1)(1).10.06.2006) under the graph tab. This shows a comparison of each year. This data alone says pandemic at some time. If not, we would see any other pattern.

Why can’t the brightest minds in the world come up and follow thru on a decent intake form for this situation? I looked at various sites to try and find out what the standards should be for H5N1 intake. I found nothing. I would love to see one. Did they even bother to make one up??? Would it be too much to ask TPTB to hire one person for each area to go in and ask questions and gather specimens? Do we really want to stop this monster? Sometimes, I wonder? Is there not enough money being spent on this effort to afford at least some effort in this direction?

Tom DVM – at 00:15

Dude. Thanks and I completely agree.

A lot that goes on just makes me shake my head…sometime I will produce a list but one pertinent example is…

…why haven’t they systematically tested the other mammals in the areas of outbreaks and in China?

Why haven’t they considered or answered the question…why no cases in the Phillipines if this disease is spread with migratory birds…

…you don’t suppose that they want to hide the fact that most of the spread is due to the unregulated trade in poultry and poultry products?

I could go on all night.

Patch – at 00:20

How do you explain, that nearly everyone here (including me, believe it or not) was certain H5N1 would be in North America last spring, as birds migrated. And it would appear, that we are HPAI H5N1 free thus far, during the early Fall Migration. I’m an old duck hunter and the weather pushes some birds, but the calendar pushes many others South. We should have some early Northern ducks coming through and some already through. The lack of identified H5N1 cases, is “cause for celebration”.

Tom DVM – at 00:42

Klatu News Thread Today@ 1800

“In Netherlands/Germany in 2003, the highly pathogenic H7N7 influenza viruses that was lethal to poultry infected the eyes of more than 80 people and killed one person; H6 and H9 have spread from a wild aquatic bird reservoir to domestic poultry over the past 10 years. H9N2 viruses have also been associated with human infections in the mainland of China and Hong Kong. Avian influenza H10N7 seems to have crossed the species barrier from poultry to people for the first time. Hence, it is possible that the next influenza pandemic may not be due to H5N1.”

http://tinyurl.com/k6sds

Once again, from the above data, it would appear to me that some unknown environmental pressure or pressures is pushing the evolution and adaption and emergence of unique viruses in a synchronized dance of the pathogens between humans and animals…

…and it should be remembered that there are at least twice as many animal partners in this dance vs. 1997.

Patch. It may be a little early for the celebration…the first signs of H5N1 in North America will be in a poultry farm and the opportunity for that to happen hasn’t been given enough time yet. We will see what happens in the Nov - Jan period.

anon_22 – at 02:06

Tom DVM uses the words genotype and phenotype where I use ‘molecular biology’ and ‘epidemiology’.

We are talking about the same thing, in case anyone didn’t notice. :-)

I personally think that both are important, but at current levels of knowledge epidemiology carries an edge for prediction, and molecular biology carries an edge for understanding.

anon_22 – at 02:12

Dude – at 00:01 Anon_22 @15:23 point #8:

http://tinyurl.com/oe4z3

Also look at the summary data on singtomeohmuse in the spreadsheet (Individuals info for graph(1)(1).10.06.2006) under the graph tab. This shows a comparison of each year. This data alone says pandemic at some time. If not, we would see any other pattern.

Dude, I agree with you. Did you think I didn’t? :-)

Why can’t the brightest minds in the world come up and follow thru on a decent intake form for this situation? I looked at various sites to try and find out what the standards should be for H5N1 intake. I found nothing. I would love to see one. Did they even bother to make one up??? Would it be too much to ask TPTB to hire one person for each area to go in and ask questions and gather specimens? Do we really want to stop this monster? Sometimes, I wonder? Is there not enough money being spent on this effort to afford at least some effort in this direction?

Oh, if only life were that simple! We would all be living happily ever after by now!

It reminds me of this scene in the movie ‘As Good As It Gets’ where the exasperated waitress exclaims “why can’t I have a normal boyfriend?”, whereupon her mother, who had been eavesdropping, poked her head out and said “it doesn’t exist, dear.”

:-)

Leo7 – at 02:43

The cats are interesting in a lot of ways. I watched merkat Manor with the nieces and they were crying over one called Shakespeare. Real tears! What struck me was the merkat is related to the civet cat which is related to…I understand there are pet kitty cats that can co mingle with the wild ones. I just don’t think we’re up on which cats are related in the outbreak areas.

Patch – at 10:32

TomDVM @ 00:42 - Patch. It may be a little early for the celebration…

I disagree. As I said, nearly everyone here (including me and you, I believe), thought it would be here already. Have we dodged the bullet? Probably not. But we haven’t been hit yet either.

Dead birds might fly, but cats don’t.

Tom DVM – at 10:39

Patch I believe that I said two things about the issue.

1) I expected H5N1 in birds to arrive in the fall of 2006, during the fall migration south…while H5N1 could arrive in humans at any time.

2) There are Chinese migratory ducks in large numbers in North American flyways all the time…the question that has not been answered is how long it takes them to get into our flyways from China.

Hurricane Alley RN – at 11:00

Patch - I really hate to burst your bubble, but cats (dogs) do fly. Military may ship there pets overseas. Of corse they must undergo quarintine. What about the humans they have contact with? What about asymptomatic animals? gina

crfullmoon – at 11:30

“bad certainties may sometimes appeal to some people more than good uncertainties”

Or,

preparing against bad uncertainties may result in higher survivial rates than just hoping good uncertainties come to pass.

anon_22 – at 15:23 Just disagree with assumption, “Indonesia is a Muslim country, ie there shouldn’t be a large swine reservoir”

Countries that are predominantly, or say they are predominantly, one religion does not mean the letter of that religion is what’s going on on the ground, whatever the issue.

Taipei Times article (btw, could read it without installing “language pack”) …They say there is no evidence pigs have been infected with avian flu, despite the government’s insistence that the animals are contributing to the recent outbreak in Indonesia, the world’s most populous Islamic country.

Critics say the government is going after pigs because they are an easy target and may divert attention away from fears about the infection in poultry, a staple food for millions of people throughout the country.

Many Muslims consider pigs to be unclean, though pork is regularly eaten by the country’s large ethnic Chinese minority, a group that frequently faces discrimination and abuse.

Indonesia is the only country to be culling swine in its fight against bird flu, which has swept through poultry populations in Asia since 2003, killing or forcing the slaughter of hundreds of millions of ducks and chickens”…

anon_22 – at 17:59

crfullmoon,

What I meant was compared to some other countries, I suspect the amount of pig rearing will be quite a lot less. Plus if it is true that they isolated H5N1 from pigs in Bali, but we are not seeing human cases in Bali, then the pig connection is not established.

11 October 2006

That’s Just Ducky! – at 02:06

speaking of Tom DMV’s dots on the periphery, I’ve been thinking about the recent reports out Indonesia that indicate asymptomatic chickens that have tested positive in Indonesia, as well as human contacts of H5N1 patients who’ve tested positive, but who were never symptomatic. I’ve also noticed lately that it seems like more H5N1 patients in Indonesia seem to be recovering from H5N1 rather than dying. Does anyone have an opinion on whether any of this could be related, or even relevant?

That’s Just Ducky! – at 02:32

That’s Just Ducky at 02:06 “as well as human contacts of H5N1 patients who’ve tested positive, but who were never symptomatic”

My memory may be failing me and it’s getting pretty late, it may be that they were tested and were found to have antibodies to H5N1. One of the two. Don’t know it it matters.

That’s Just Ducky! – at 03:08

must sleep… going to bed now…

lugon – at 03:55

Just caught this from anon_22 above: The proportion of human cases that are in clusters appear to increase steadily (not erratically!)

We should be able to make the invisible visible. What would such a graph look like? Cases by three-month periods, with the proportion of them that are inside clusters? I haven’t been able to look at the Excel files in the big file repository (see Forum.TheLargeFileCommunicationsProject5). But maybe it’s as simple as defining a column so that each case has the information: “0=not in a cluster”, “1=in a cluster”. Then sort by date and graph by month or whatever. It should come out similar to this, only with “in cluster/not in cluster”.

I honestly don’t think I’ll have time to do this in the very near future, but please give it a go if you can!

I think this “making the invisible visible” concept (ruthlessly stolen from worldchanging) is something very much needed at this stage, no?

anon_22 – at 09:57

lugon – at 03:55 I honestly don’t think I’ll have time to do this in the very near future, but please give it a go if you can!

Yes, join the club! Once you start working on this, you will very quickly realize there’s a lot that can be done and need to be done. There are a lot of people working hard on stuff like that, but always there’s something else…. :-)

That’s Just Ducky! – at 12:18

Hello, I am awake again now. :) To whom are to speaking,above,lugon and anon_22? Each other, or myself?

anon_22 – at 12:24

That’s Just Ducky! – at 12:18

Well, I don’t know if they are related, but just to throw one more wrench in the works, Indonesia has been giving out tamiflu a lot more liberally than before. So we don’t know how many of those ‘asymptomatic contacts’ have taken tamiflu. And it is also likely that the use of tamiflu for treatment is making a difference in survival. But we don’t have real data to support any of that.

That’s Just Ducky! – at 12:26

I am, in the meantime, reading the above referenced forum. Thank’s very much for that! I have been looking for just that.

That’s Just Ducky! – at 12:28

Just that information, I mean. I didn’t know about the forum. I had tried finding a forum on that topic with the search feature with no luck.

That’s Just Ducky! – at 12:45

Reviewing the data in the files on the ftp server now. This is great!

Tom DVM – at 13:02

“speaking of Tom DMV’s dots on the periphery, I’ve been thinking about the recent reports out Indonesia that indicate asymptomatic chickens that have tested positive in Indonesia, as well as human contacts of H5N1 patients who’ve tested positive, but who were never symptomatic. I’ve also noticed lately that it seems like more H5N1 patients in Indonesia seem to be recovering from H5N1 rather than dying. Does anyone have an opinion on whether any of this could be related, or even relevant?”

That’s Just Ducky! Excellent deductive work and I really like your handle…are you new on flu wiki or a lurker. I hope you continue participating…we need all the help we can get. /:0)

Okay, you have brought up the issue of asymptomatic infections and the question we need to consider is…is this a good thing or a bad thing with respect to virus adaption and the potential of a pandemic…and of course timing, in my opinion, the only question left on the table.

We have known for some time that asymptomatic infections have occured in pigs and we have been very concerned about asymptomatic infections in an unknown mammalian reservoir and we have also known that asymtomatic infections occur in cats as well…

…now we may have asymptomatic infections in chickens and humans…the most susceptible animals to infection with H5N1.

I do not think this is a good thing and I believe that it indicates another step on the evolutionary trail leading directly to a pandemic. An exotic disease in animals can only be controlled when clinical cases can be quickly identified and control measure instituted…when cases cannot be identified, the virus continues to smoulder and even though you can prove it through serology, you can’t do anything about it.

Secondly, a virus that comes in, infects a lot of animals in a short period…usually will die out and have limited long-term effects…anything that allows it to produce asymptomatic infections also allows it to not die out by blow back on itself. naturally.

The same thing goes for humans…exotic diseases that come from animals usually infect few people and the infections often cause death…the virus wants to survive so it selectively adapts to live in harmony with the host and again this allow it opportunity to circulate adapt and also unfortunately mutate to produce a pandemic.

It should be remembered that all influenza’s of the past century have been a relative of the monster from 1918…H1N1…now we have another player on the block…even if every person infected was asymptomatic…opportunity = mutation and the odds of a future pandemic in my opinion would be 100%.

We should keep one last thing in perspective. There has never been a virus, in the history of human race, that has had the ability to infect so many distinct species of animals…none…this is the first one.

The implications of this are massive…not least of which is to affect us and remove significant food sources (poultry, pigs, ?) concurrently.

Being lulled to sleep at this point…as the pandemic has creeped very close to us..would be a great mistake.

That’s Just Ducky! – at 13:05

I finally figured out you were speaking to me. Hadn’t had my coffee yet! LOL Thanks for the welcome.

Yes, I knew about the Tamiflu, but really wonder how many of those contacts/neighbors are actually taking it. I have heard reports that they are not. One particular post I read in one of the forums, something about “in the field”, I think, was by someone who has a contact on the ground in Indonesia, a relief worker or something, who repored that the citizens often(?) throw the Tamiflu away or feed it to their chickens!

I will quickly get myself up to speed on all this. Try to find more dots, data for the dots, and see how some might be connected. There must be a way to find the answers that we need. Maybe some of the answers don’t need to be absolute certainties. Given enough dots, we may be able to connect them enough to at least make important deductions and go from there.

That’s Just Ducky! – at 13:15

Thanks, Tom DMV. All of that information is “very” helpful. Let us hope that the virus is not in the process of trading virulence for transmissibility.

I am new to the Wiki and the rest of the flu watching boards and I guess you could say I’ve been primarily lurking, gathering and assimilating information about the situation. H5N1 was not so much as a blip on my radar screen before that. I will be very happy to have the opportunity contribute in any way I can.

That’s Just Ducky! – at 15:06

You are all right, above, we need to identify the data we need that we don’t have. You have all identified questions that we need to answer, above. I am sure there are more.

I think it would be beneficial to describe the obstacles to obtaining the data. Yes, time is of the essence, and we must do more than lament the fact that we don’t have enough data.

Then, once we know what data we need and the obstacles to obtaining it, the question is, how do we get it. Who has the power to make that happen. Someone must have the power to do that. Who are these people? What do they need to do? Maybe it is as simple as telling the people who could get us the data that we need such and such. I’m thinking of Indonesia in particular. They seem willing, but maybe lack the direction. We really don’t know why we don’t have the data, do we?

We will have to plan as we go, as we learn more.

We have many suspected cases sick in the hospital in Indonesia with symptoms consistent with H5N1 infection who either don’t get tested and are diagnosed with another disease, or get tested and are reported negative and are diagnosed with another disease.

We have fatal cases in Indonesia who had negative test results in the hospital with negative test results who have subsequently died and tested positive upon autopsy. One such case in Thailand tested negative eight times and then tested positive upon autopsy. So we have some data for Indonesia, but, because of the poor surveillence, for numerous reasons, we don’t have enough data.

Dude, you’ve identified a problem in one of your posts above, and have suggested what imo is a good course of action:

“Why can’t the brightest minds in the world come up and follow thru on a decent intake form for this situation? I looked at various sites to try and find out what the standards should be for H5N1 intake. I found nothing. I would love to see one. Did they even bother to make one up??? Would it be too much to ask TPTB to hire one person for each area to go in and ask questions and gather specimens? Do we really want to stop this monster? Sometimes, I wonder? Is there not enough money being spent on this effort to afford at least some effort in this direction?”

This a good example. Why don’t we pursue this? I think we should. I think as a group we should say exactly what data needs to be gathered upon intake. I think we need to determine exactly what the surveillance should entail. Maybe then the surveillance can be undertaken.

While the lack of surveillence in Indonesia is certainly a problem, that is probably easier to solve, perhaps, than the larger problem, which is that we don’t know what the situation is in the rest of the world. While we have some visibility into Indonesia, such as it is, we have a complete, as far as I can tell, lack of transparency into other countries of concern (this would be another take on your “we should be able to make the invisible visible”, Lugon. ;) Yes, we certainly should, and must.)

I have been just typing off the top of my head, stream of consciousness. What do you all think? What can we do?

That’s Just Ducky! – at 15:14

By the way, I’m in the process of compiling a list of the questions that need answered and the data that is needed from the posts above as a starting point.

That’s Just Ducky! – at 15:49

I’ve reading the “What I Learnt from Talking to JKT” and it seems apparent that we probably cannot do decades worth of research in a few weeks in order to answer some very important questions. For example, the question of how many HA and NA subtypes have there ever been historically, in adddition to the 16 HA and the 9 NA. It seems to me that we may(?) never know. So we need to focus on the knowable.

We may have to do the best we can with what we have, what we can get, and we may have to make some inferences. Inferences - is this something that scientists ever do? Or must they always have hard data? There is, however, more hard data to be gotten, and I think that we can get it.

I tend to break things down to their simplest form. Am I being too simplistic? I am continuing with my research to bring myself up to speed and look forward to more exchanges with you all on this.

That’s Just Ducky! – at 16:19

My expertise is in project management. I wonder what that committee of 21 scientists assembled by the WHO is actually doing right now. Coming up with a plan to get the data? I think scientists would be able to specify what data is needed, and then analyze the data once they get it, but I don’t think they could come up with a plan to get the data. I would love to sit down with David Nabbaro for an hour or two, as this is in his perview. There are probably a lot of people approach this whole thing at a macro level, and we need an actionable plan at the micro level if we don’t have one, and it needs to get executed last year.

That’s Just Ducky! – at 16:21

“as this is in his perview” - oops, typo, purview

That’s Just Ducky! – at 16:31

What is our purview, we on the Wiki?

That’s Just Ducky! – at 17:05

Is it mainly to determine, for ourselves, and any other interested parties,

1.probability of pandemic

2.probable timeline of pandemic

3.mitigation of risk of collateral damage

?

Or, can we say that we have any greater purview that that?

I would just be interested in knowing what the parameters are.

anon_22 – at 17:45

That’s Just Ducky! – at 17:05

It’s great that you are connecting the dots in this way. I know that you are new to this and I don’t know how much of the wiki or the forum you have met, but a lot of these have been discussed at various times. None of the discussions are conclusive, this is the nature of the problem we are facing, but it may be useful to invest a couple of days reading through the wiki and various threads on the forum. Even just for the 3 questions that you just posted, there are various ways of thinking about them that’s been suggested by different contributors to this forum. If you have a specific problem and you don’t know where the answer is, just post and someone usually will be able to find where the answer is. :-)

That’s Just Ducky! – at 19:20

anon_22 – at 17:45

Yes, I have seen that this has all be discussed quite extensively. I will assume from your post that the answer to the first question I posed in ‘That’s Just Ducky! – at 17:05′ is yes, and the answer to the second question is no.

I enjoy your forums very much, and sincerely look forward to participating with you all. Thank you anon_22 :)

Tom DVM – at 19:22

TJ Ducky. Keep up the good work…it’s not too crowded on the periphery…where all the interesting dots are!!

That’s Just Ducky! – at 20:21

Thanks Tom DMV. I appreciate your post very much, and I’m in complete agreement with the rest! :)

That’s Just Ducky! – at 20:49

Anon_22, I’d like to join the others in thanking you for posting your notes.

That’s Just Ducky! – at 21:27

By the way, Anon_22, there are a lot of people (myself included!) over on the FC at CE clammoring for more of your postings on your observations and thoughts from your interview with JKT. I hope that’s not a faux pas; I’m still not sure who is on good terms with whom! ;)

Tom DVM – at 21:41

TJ Ducky We get along with everyone.

14 October 2006

anon_22 – at 00:51

That’s Just Ducky! – at 21:27 By the way, Anon_22, there are a lot of people (myself included!) over on the FC at CE clammoring for more of your postings on your observations and thoughts from your interview with JKT. I hope that’s not a faux pas; I’m still not sure who is on good terms with whom! ;)

No, it’s not. But I’m stuck on a problem and haven’t gotten a solution. I emailed JKT the question and am still waiting for the reply. It may be nothing, or it may be very intriguing. So I’m holding the rest of the stuff till either he answers my question or I figure it out!

anon_22 – at 00:53

bumping for visibility

See first post for excellent videocast by Taubenberger!

That’s Just Ducky! – at 01:14

Tom DMV, That’s right, we get along with everybody. I guess I got confused; I hear it’s the some of the other guys who might not get along so well. LOL!

Anon_22, thanks for that, I’ll pass along the info. Now you’ve really got my curiosity piqued.

30 October 2006

anon_22 – at 19:17

OK, I’m back. The problem that I had was on studying the recent paper A preliminary panorama of the diversity of N1 subtype influenza viruses, Chen et al, was whether their finding was in conflict with JKT’s hypothesis about the origins of the 1918 virus. The answer is not, they actually validated his original premise that the ancestor of the 1918 H1N1 had come into general circulation shortly before 1918.

The Chen paper is essentially an overview of all known N1 sequences. Without going into the detailed phyogenetic analysis, basically all current N1 sequences can be broadly separated into avian, human, and classical swine lineages. 3 things about this paper that bear relevance to our discussion:

1 all these different lineages could be traced back to a common ancestor, of which the Brevig/1918 (the sample from Alaska) appeared closest to the ancestral node. If you take the differences and extrapolate the rate of change backwards, you would get an intersection at around the year 1890, which is consistent with JKT’s findings from HA and NA genes of the 1918 virus.

The first chart is from Integrating historical, clinical and molecular genetic data to explain the origin and virulenbce of 1918 virus, Taubenberger et al 2001

The second one is from the recent Chen paper, showing regression analysis of N1 sequences from the classical swine and human lineages. Note how similar the 2 results are.

anon_22 – at 19:23

I’m going to close this thread and start part 2 cos its loading too slowly.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / PBS American Experience on NOW

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: PBS American Experience on NOW

30 October 2006

LauraBat 21:16

Great show on RIGHT NOW (East Coast) about Yellow Fever epidemic - fear, panic, no food, economic collapse. Sound famliar?

Gary Near Death Valley – at 22:00

I was told about this last week and added it to the list to be copied on the Direct TV DVR. Then I download the program onto a DVD, to show others if they missed it.

EOD – at 22:20

What equipment do you have that enables you to download from your DVR?

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Strong Angel 3 Integrated Disaster Response

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Strong Angel 3 Integrated Disaster Response

27 September 2006

fredness – at 01:40

I stumbled across this event. It looks it was a great collaborative effort (remnds me of this place).

Strong Angel 3 About Objectives People Organizations Forum Wiki News Blogs

THE SCENARIO A Complex Contingency: A lethal and highly-contagious virus gradually begins to spread around the globe. Infection rates are high, deaths are frequent, and no vaccine is available. Cities all over the world fall under quarantine. Emergency services and medical centers are stressed and national government agencies, affected just as severely as the cities themselves, cannot provide assistance. And then the situation goes from bad to worse.

A terrorist cell, having long waited for such an opportunity, launches a wave of successful cyber attacks in a medium size city somewhere in the developed world, bringing down grid power, Internet access, land and cellular telephones. Other, more subtle, attacks follow, and it’s difficult to sort out the mess.

If there were ever a time to work effectively together, this would be it.

Recognizing that a comparable scenario might one day unfold in real life, a diverse group of disaster responders, technologists, and community leaders will assemble in San Diego in August of 2006 for an event designed to simulate a truly complex disaster. Over the course of seven days, on the grounds of the San Diego Fire Training Academy, the campus of San Diego State University, and in the streets of the city, we will explore techniques and technologies for responding effectively when the response itself must adapt to cascading losses. By demonstrating what is possible through public and private-sector partnerships within a community, we intend to develop approaches to cultivating local resilience that may be useful for any city, here or abroad.

Strong Angel III Fact Sheet Strong Angel Defined A week-long series of demonstrations to test and show combinations of integrated technologies and techniques that improve information flow and cooperation across civil and military boundaries in delivering humanitarian relief efforts to victims of disasters and conflicts.

Strong Angel III Dates August 21 – 26, 2006.

Location San Diego, CA, including San Diego Fire Department Fire Rescue Training Facility and the San Diego State University Visualization Center.

Strong Angel III Complex Disaster Scenario Humanitarian relief demonstrations to address a simulated lethal pandemic that’s further complicated by a wave of cyber attacks that cripple critical local infrastructure and information systems.

Strong Angel III Director Eric Rasmussen, MD, San Diego State University.

Participants Volunteer experts, including engineers, NGO staff, humanitarian relief workers, academic researchers, policy makers and current and former military personnel.

Strong Angel III Goals To field-test and demonstrate effective means of delivering life-saving humanitarian relief in wake of disasters, to foster close collaboration and communications between humanitarian relief agencies, governments and military in providing disaster relief, and to provide local communities with solutions that can help them cope with disasters more immediately and effectively.

Strong Angel III Funding A combination of public and private sector organizations have provided funds and volunteered resources for this week-long demonstration.

Strong Angel III team members will conduct field trials and demonstrations of solutions that address 49 specific humanitarian relief challenges – both technical and social – that have not yet been adequately overcome in real disaster relief efforts. These experiments and demonstrations will be conducted in adverse environments within the context of a simulated lethal pandemic caused by a highly contagious virus, which is further complicated by the modeling of a wave of cyber attacks that cripple critical local infrastructure and Strong Angel III systems. The Strong Angel III Executive Committee will issue a lessons-learned document on its web site near the end of the year.

Objectives 49 are too many to list. Follow the link.

This event was covered by several major newspapers Disaster simulation in U.S. finds computers vulnerable

30 October 2006

fredness – at 19:47

New ideas for disaster relief 10/23/06 By Caron Golden, Government Computer News

Strong Angel III demonstrates IT for humanitarian crises

The list of disasters in recent years — Hurricane Katrina, the devastating tsunami that struck Indonesia two years ago, earthquakes in Pakistan and Iran — could make a person shudder. Or, if you’re a Strong Angel participant, get you gearing up to help.

The Strong Angel series is a volunteer demonstration disaster response laboratory that brings together medical, humanitarian, military and technology experts from the public and private sectors, civilian and military agencies and domestic and international organizations.

Human and IT networks

The goal is to solve problems in global disaster response by field-testing and demonstrating technologies to facilitate humanitarian relief. It also could help develop enduring social networks that responders can call on in an emergency.

Led by Eric Rasmussen, an active-duty Navy commander, physician and adjunct professor at San Diego State University, Strong Angel held its first demonstration in June 2000 near Puu Pa’a on the Big Island of Hawaii.

Strong Angel II followed in 2004 on a remote lava bed near Waikaloa, Hawaii. This past summer, Strong Angel III took place for seven days in San Diego at the former Naval Training Center, where more than 800 people participated.

“We do Strong Angel because you get to sit around with the thoughts of some of the best species on the planet right now,” said Rasmussen. “These people are educated, experienced and not shy. And, while we have the participation of a lot of for-profit organizations like Microsoft, Cisco Systems, Bell Canada and Google, we have an explicit mandate that they’re not allowed to market their products. The point is collaboration, cooperation and developing interoperability, not to push or sell. How well can you blend, not how well can you shine.”

Several months after the event, leaders still are evaluating the software and systems that developed over the course of the demonstration, but several, they say, stand out.

Eric Frost, co-director of San Diego State University’s Homeland Security masters program and Strong Angel III’s regional coordinator, was impressed with a group called Drastic LLC of Charlotte, N.C., which installs and maintains broadband Internet connectivity for aid workers in post-disaster situations and in under-served cities, jungles and deserts in the developing world. Drastic was a responder in Louisiana and Mississippi in the wake of Hurricane Katrina.

Frost was struck by the company’s beach ball-like GATR (ground antenna transmit/receive) technology — a light, inflatable satellite communications antenna that is easy to transport and, once popped up, provides Internet connectivity. It’s made by GATR Technologies Inc. of Huntsville, Ala.

“They [the Drastic team] got a network going after the tsunami,” Frost explained. “They were also an ISP [Internet service provider] to Afghanistan before, during and after the Taliban. They’re a very unusual group of people and made a profound point during and after the event — that there’s huge expertise among people for Third World countries, as opposed to being U.S. - centric. That’s rare. They’re really developing stuff that could be deployed in the Third World.”

Videoconferencing on the go

Nigel Snoad, the demonstration director and lead capabilities researcher with Microsoft Humanitarian Systems, was wowed by lightweight videoconferencing by Vsee Lab of San Jose, Calif. Using low-bandwidth videoconferencing and collaboration software, VSee provides secure global communication between local and remote participants.

Another company, Tandberg of New York, also got attention for its videoconferencing systems, which utilize satellite and wireless EVDO (Evolution-Data Optimized), a radio broadband standard.

Interact and experiment

There also was a lot of interest in Simple Sharing Extensions, a specification that could make RSS data feeds two-way, and in Bell Canada’s integrated messaging platform, which Snoad said could be used effectively to communicate with staff.

But as important as the technology was, Strong Angel III leaders said, the opportunity for participants to interact and experiment was just as compelling. There was a focus on creating a common operational picture to enhance collaboration and sharing information, and, equally important, on meeting others just as passionate about humanitarian relief.

“A big aspect of this is that a fair number of participants will actually be responders,” said Frost. “The social networking of people here is important so that if something happens, responders have people to call and can make fairly outrageous requests.”

“The point was to take people out of their cubicles and force them to interact with others in a very difficult environment for a very noble purpose,” Rasmussen said. “Take off the corporate hat and figure out how you’re going to help.”

© 1996–2006 Post-Newsweek Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Explaining Pandemics to Children

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Explaining Pandemics to Children

07 August 2006

Average Concerned Mom – at 08:53

We’ve been talking about how to prepared out kids and I said I had a story I told my own son, 4, when he asked about “bird flu”. I’m trying to put it up on the wiki side, but it just seems really out of place there. The forum is where we are talking about all the personal stuff, with emotions and our families, and dealing with picky eaters and so on. I will look into whether we can add more of this “touchy feely” stuff to the wiki side, but in the meantime, I want to post this story for anyone who may find it useful. I welcome ideas and feedback, or other ways you have tried explaining/preparing your kids, especially your younger kids.

Average Concerned Mom – at 08:55

To expalin a serious situation to a young child (preschooler to about age 7) I suggest:

Average Concerned Mom – at 08:56

Here’s a template of a story you can use.

Once there was a town that had many children and grownups, and they were always very busy. The children went to preschool, and they went to the market with their mommies, and they played with all the other kids at the park in the center of the town. Sometimes the families went visiting, and the kids played at each other’s houses and everyone stayed for lunch or dinner. On Sundays everyone went to church, and the kids went to Sunday school and the babies went to the nursery, and the parents stayed in the church and prayed and sang out loud.

In those days and in that town, sometimes the children got sick, and it would be just the regular kind of sick. They might have a cough, or a headache, or maybe they would have a hot fever. And so, their mommies said they had to stay in bed, and they got to watch TV. Their Mommies gave them hot chicken soup, and soon they felt better and could play again. It was just regular sick. And maybe the mommies and the daddies got that kind of sick, too; and they drank chicken soup and stayed in bed a few days, but then they got better.

But one year a big sickness came to the town. If people got this big sickness, they were sick for a long time and some of them did not get better. It was a very scary sickness, because some people could die from getting sick.

Some of the children got sick, and they were very, very sick. So then the mommies had to take care of them, and hold them up and give them tiny sips of water and chicken broth and medicine. Then the mommies got sick, too, and the daddies had to hold them up and feed them sips of water and chicken broth and medicine. But then the daddies got sick, and the mommies were still sick, too, so there was no one to help the daddies. So you know what happened? The children had to try to feed the daddies. But the daddies were so big it was hard to hold them up! So some other people had to come to the houses to help the families, or the families had to go to the hospital.

So many people were getting sick and there weren’t enough people to help out. So the town people decided to close everything so people would stop getting so sick. They closed the schools, and the stores, and the parks, and the churches. All the children stayed at home and some of the mommies and daddies stayed with them. Some mommies and daddies had to go to work every day, so they put masks over their faces to try to keep the sick germs away from them, and they always washed their hands a LOT so they wouldn’t get the sick germs into their eyes and noses.

The town people decided to close all the stores, because stores were one place that the sick germs could spread from person to person. So the grocery stores were closed, and the shoe stores were closed. Every kind of store was closed, so no one could do any kind of shopping.

Sometimes the children were eating cereal for breakfast and they said, “I don’t LIKE this cereal, please buy me a new cereal!” And the mommies had to say, “Sorry, kids, the stores are all closed. You just have to deal with it.” And the kids had to deal with whatever cereal they had! So this was how the children learned to like eating new things, because if they didn’t they would be very hungry.

And sometimes the kids said “We are really bored here at home by ourselves. Can’t we go play somewhere new and fun, and see our friends?” And the daddies had to say, “Sorry, kids, the parks and pools and schools and movie theatres are all closed. You just have to deal with it.” So the kids found new things to do inside the house and their yard, and stayed away from other people until the sick germs went away. So this was how they practiced their imagination.

And sometimes the kids got really scared and said, “What will happen if we get the big, bad sickness?” and the mommies and daddies both said, “Let’s hope we don’t, but if we do, we will just have to deal with it, all together!” And so, the children and their parents all had to learn to be brave and wait for things that might happen. This was how they practiced their courage.

After many days, the town leaders said that the big illness had left the town, and it was safe to come back out and go to preschool and stores and church again. It was a sad time in the town, because the big sickness had made many of the children, and their mommies and daddies and even the grandparents sick. Some of them were very sick for a long time, and they couldn’t even walk, and some people were so sick that they never got better, and they died. So it was a very sad time.

But it was also a happy time, because the big sickness was gone from the land. The children were told that the sickness might come back one day, but they would be ready, because they had practiced so many new things while they were at home. They also learned how to wash their hands a LOT, and keep the sick germs away.

Crazy American Lady in the Village – at 09:23

Average concerned Mom,

Thanks for the story, BUT it seemed like a very SCARY story to ME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Have you discussed BF with your 4 year old? My oldest is 4 and i have not mentioned it at all. I rather her live in ignorant bliss than worry about it. I’m the mummy, I’m the one that will do all the worrying in this house!

But seriously, she has not asked and I therefore have not offered any information. If the day comes when we need to SIP, I will then explain.

What do you think? I’m I wrong to do this? She’s such a happy child and I dont want to burden her.

Your thoughts please

Average Concerned Mom – at 09:29

Yes — he overheard me talking to his dad.

I don’t recommend bringing the subject up now if there is no need. But some of us were talking about how to discuss it — if and when we needed to. This was my suggestion.

Yes, it is a scary story. But we do talk about other scary stuff with our kids — if we read the Bible and they hear about the story of Noah and the arc for example, or go to church and explain why a dead guy is hanging on a cross. (For religious people).

And if we read fairy tales, there are stories of death there too — the Pied PIper of Hamiln comes and takes all the chidlren away, that kind of thing.

Some people avoid hose types of stories with their kids as well, and that’s fine with me!

knowall – at 10:28

Don’t know if this is helpful or not, but it has tips for talking to children and teens about disasters, its from the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration of the U.S. Dept. of Health and Human Services.

http://www.mentalhealth.samhsa.gov/cmhs/TraumaticEvents/tips.asp

Crazy American Lady in the Village – at 11:30

Thank you ACMOM,

You know, I’m one of those people that AVOID those kind of stories because I remember they used to keep me up at night! I don’t even like it when my husband sings Ring Around the Rosey to the kids because it’s about the Black Plague and the bit where “we all fall down” signifies the kids dying! I also try to not pass on my personal hang up to my kids, I’m petrified of frogs (yes I know…..) and I try to be all brave where there is one in the garden.

The English have all kinds of morbid nursery rhimes so you can’t avoid it, you know what happened to Humpy Dumpy right?

But seriously, I’m really impressed that your 4 year old asked about it! Mine would not even pay atention! Even if she heard us talking, I don’t think she would pay any attention because it doesnt involve Barbies. She just does not seem to have that level of conciousness. She is very intelligent, top of her class, but kind of lives in a happy little world and lets me do all of the worrying.

I tend to protect my kids a lot from all of the “baddies” of the world and just yesterday I was wondering if I’m doing the right thing. Just from the point of view that I’m convinced that I’m such a happy adult because my mother managed to ruin my childhood. Once I was out of her tenticles it was GREAT!!!!! and I live in this really happy place because I appreciate it so much. Perhaps if my mother hadnt been such a cow, I would not be as happy today.

So the question is, should I make the kids miserable sometimes just so they can grow up into happy adults, too much happiness and stability could be bad for them. ;) Maybe i should hide their favourite toys. What do you think :)

LauraBat 13:46

Personally I’m not saying anything to my kids unless I have to (ages 10, 6 and 3). No need to stress them out right now. If it gets closer to TSHTF then we’ll talk. My oldest would get it, but my middle one would freak. And if I only told the oldest, he might tell the middle one in a much more frightening way than with your story. So for now, lips sealed. Most of our preps are out of sight so they wouldn’t know anything was different as i normally have a decently stocked pantry.

I have been more motivated in getting my kids to do more for themselves than previously. I’m teaching my 10yo how to make certain foods and do laundry. I’ve also been trying to get them to eat more “prep” foods, but much of it is stuff we don’t normally eat - eg my kids prefer fresh, raw veggies and they HATE canned tuna - but it isn’t going well.

citygirl – at 13:58

ITA with Laura B. No need, IMO, to stress children out with an event that may or may not happen. The “story” above would be frightening for most children I know (not to mention adults). I have a very inquistivie 5 year old who asks questions, which I answer, but I don’t engage her on the topic, 1. because I don’t feel it is necessary and 2. because she would obsess about it.

There are so many other things we can work with our children on - self-sufficiency, independence, compliance, etc, skills that would be useful in a pandemic, but without causing them to worry. I personally plan to say little to nothing unless TSHTF. To each his/her own.

Albert – at 14:18

My kids (7 and 5) were asking questions about the preps they saw in the store room. I just told them, in one sentence, that a dangerous disease might occurr and that we might have to stay indoors for some time. They understood and did not question further. What they see on the news on TV these days is much more frightening and difficult to explain in my opinion.

libbyalex – at 14:39

I haven’t said anything yet to my child how will turn 4 in a couple of weeks. I think some version of the above story is good when and if I need to use it. I would also suggest that you do a search (on Amazon or wherever) for books for children on death. There are several out there (and I can’t remember their titles at the moment). It would be a good thing to have on hand. Thanks for starting this thread.

Average Concerned Mom – at 14:44

This is what happened:

We were on a vacation, long car drive. I thought my son was asleep in the back, and started giving my husband a description of the book I was reading. “The Great Influenza”. So my son, who wasn’t after all asleep, heard about it, and asked a lot of questions.

I didn’t bring it up to him as in “This is a something that is going to happen and a lot of people are going to die and you should be very very scared of it!” Nor even as, “Would you like to hear a nice night-night story?” (-: Really I am not that cruel.

I told him this kid’s version of what happened. He is quite scared of being sick, because he had had very bad croup twice and had to go to the ER. So I stressed that what happened long ago wasn’t the “regular” kind of sick, but was a big sickness.

At 4 and a half, he is also suddenly very interested in death — what happens when you die, why people die, what happens to their bodies, why God lets people die and so on. So when he overheard me talking about a lot of people dying in 1918 he wanted to know what and why and why they didn’t go to the doctor’s and so on. He also has tons of questions about why soldiers fight, why we have wars, why police carry guns, why bad guys have to be bad guys. I do my best. (-:

So, this was the story I told him. It is a very scary topic, but I had to explain what had happened. Well, that is my personal parental decision. I could have just told him we were talking about grown-up stuff and left him in the dark. But I decided not to because I actually do think there is a likelihood of a pandemic and possibly even in a few years. If so, I am setting the framework in his mind that there is a regular kind of sick, and you don’t have to worry too much about getting it. But that sometimes, there’s a big kind of sick, and things will be different if that happens.

Honestly, the hardest part for him would be explaining to him why we have to SIP.

I was not suggesting using the story to explain things to kids right now. Certainly not in response to why you have a lot of preps. I guess it isn’t all that useful. But, maybe it wil be sueful to somebody who finds herself or himself in a similar situation as I was in.

anonymous – at 18:03

how about just talking about being prepared, instead of illness?? Everyone prepares to go camping, being out in the cold, getting wet swimming. Extra clothes are for when you get wet, snacks in the car are for when you might get hungry, extra gloves are for having them when you need them. Preparedness is like boyscouts and camping, not sickness and death.

Melanie – at 18:08

ACM,

You have an “interesting” child. I feel for you!

Bronco Bill – at 18:34

ACM, I think you have a very healthy, inquisitive youngster there. I don’t have kids, but I have 5 neices and nephews, and it was at about that age when they started asking some of the wildest questions, much like your young’n…

heddiecalifornia – at 18:45

Hi all — I just started a thread on touching the eyes, nose, mouth, and face with possibly contaminated hands — it’s a bad habit I have, and I am sure that that is going to be relevant with school age kids. Any thoughts?

Average Concerned Mom – at 18:47

Melanie—

He takes after his father! (-:

Thanks Bronco Bill!

I’d appreciate it if this thread could be closed. It was well intentioned, appears to be of no use to anyone but myself.

(Man, if I’m too extreme for the FLUWIKI, I have really gone around the bend….) (-:

Melanie – at 18:50

Not gonna close it. This is a valuable thread for people with children.

Bronco Bill – at 19:20

I’d like to see it stay open, too. As I said, I don’t have kids, but the neighbors all do, and a lot of them have kind of adopted us as their sounding board with questions they don’t know how to ask of their own parents. I learned a lot from this thread…

Melanie – at 19:21
LauraBat 19:33

There have been scatterred discussions on talking with older kids (preteens+) about prepping and panflu. Depending on the child and the age, I think there is a great value in discussing it. But only if a parent thinks that child is ready to deal with it. Something like the PBS American Experience show on 1918 might be a good place to start - it brings it to life in a way just reading can’t.

MaMaat 19:42

Average Concerned Mom- that’s a fantastic story!

In no way do I think it’s a good thing to unnecessarily scare children, at the same time I think it’s important to be honest when a subject comes up. My kids heard about BF on the news, from the newspaper and yes- from overhearing their Dad and I talking when we thought they were sleeping:-)I answered all of their questions as well as I could and talked to them about some of the different ways our life might change if a pandemic occured and the things we could do to practice better hygiene(starting now!). I just spoke to them matter-of-factly, very calmly and they weren’t frightened. In past generations children were exposed to the hard facts about sickness and death, it’s only in the last few generations in the developed world that we have tried to hide some of the realities of life and death from our children- with the best of intentions of course. After all, with all of the advances in science and medicine, the high standard of living that we are able to have it’s not a usual occurence for someone close to us to die. With modern day health care and burial practices many of us are very removed from the process of caring for the sick and burying the dead. Not a bad thing at all, don’t get me wrong. The point I’m trying to make is explaining as best you can, in terms and detail appropriate for their age, IMO won’t scar them for life. Speaking plainly about these things may not work for everyone and every family but it certainly did for us, I’m glad it worked out well for you too.

Lurker Mom – at 20:08

ACM at 18:47

Thank you for this thread. And thank you Melanie for not closing it. I have tried to committ your story to memory and will adapt it to my own childrens’ personalities if and when the time comes. As you can see from my name, I am a bit shy to speak up, so I admire your candor. Remember, you never know how shared information will somehow help someone down the road.

MadDadat 20:17

My daughter is a few months from 4 years old. And of course, being that age, she’s gotten colds several times and a (minor) flu at least twice. I see this as a golden opportunity to talk about germs, what they are, and how they can make you sick. I might be a bit lucky in that she’s *very* interested in science, especially biology. Not kidding, when she was still 2 she wanted to know what was “inside” every animal she saw, and one of our favorite bedtime books is anatomical diagrams of all sorts of animals.

Anyway, it seems like when it’s happening, when a cold is going around the family, is an excellent time to explain it. “And sometimes”, I told her “lots of people get sick all at the same time.” And I explained that right now a lot of birds are getting sick, but they’ll be ok.

She’s also started exploring the whole death thing. Prompted by an episode of a childrens show named “Cailiou”, where the kid finds -ironically- a dead bird, and talks with his Mom and Dad about it. So that was a week or two of those surprise questions, out of the blue while you’re driving to the store with the child in carseat and suddenly “What happens when we die?” You’ve got to be ready for that stuff. I must have said “Um” and “Well….” a hundred times before I started a real answer (sort of).

And of course, last week she asked why the flashlight wasn’t working for her, and I told her the batteries were DEAD. She looked at that flashlight (now a little silver tomb) with the saddest, strangest expression for a minute before I realized what was happening and explained.

10 October 2006

Bronco Bill – at 20:39

This thread needs to be kept in front of people.

crfullmoon – at 20:57

Book suggestion; if your libraries don’t have it they should: John W. James and Russell Friedman, with Leslie Matthews;

“When Children Grieve: For Adults to Help Children Deal with Death, Divorce, Pet Loss, Moving, and Other Losses”

MaMa; “In past generations children were exposed to the hard facts about sickness and death, it’s only in the last few generations in the developed world that we have tried to hide some of the realities of life and death from our children”

Quite right, and some in other countries, or, other communities, they can’t, or don’t, try to aviod these topics.

If people suddenly had to get children or teens to SIP with no background info, no time for early adjustment reactions, it might be a hard sell, no? And there is enough scary stuff about many things in the news; if they knew you were trying to take precautions/ preparatory actions, wouldn’t that help?

Edna Mode – at 21:10

crfullmoon – at 20:57 MaMa; “In past generations children were exposed to the hard facts about sickness and death, it’s only in the last few generations in the developed world that we have tried to hide some of the realities of life and death from our children”

In the last few generations in the developed world we have tried to hide some of the realities of life and death from ADULTS too. The entire process is so sanitized it is artificial.

Parents who are prepping in earnest will not be able to avoid discussing their activities with their children (in age-appropriate ways). My kids know we are prepping and help us. It’s been about six months now that they’ve been actively engaged, and I noticed my nearly 11 y.o. daughter say yesterday for the first time, “Mom, when the pandemic happens….” Up to now, she’s been hoping/wishing it won’t happen. My 8 y.o. son told me he’s glad we’re prepping, but he doesn’t really want to hear any more about pandemic until it’s time to SIP. My kids are both very articulate so can have these conversations, but other kids are just as able to verbalize in their own way if their parents allow them the opportunity and support them in the moment.

LauraBat 21:19
LauraBat 21:24

Sorry about that!

My 10yo has taken a new interest in what I am doing and gives me grief when he catches me on the wiki! But I’ve approached it as a “being preppared for anything” with an emphasis on natural disasters. He was very upsest by Katrina last year (even participated in a school walk to raise money) so he understands what could happen if there were ever a hurricane here. I don’t want to tell him much more about af unless I have to - he’d tell his siblings and the middle one, who is only 6yo, would freak.

RobTat 21:41

Thanks for this thread. I raised this topic on another thread not knowing of this one. This is an important topic, so thanks you all for your input.

I have been asked to address an audience and I will remember to ask for no children to attend.

libbyalex – at 23:15

Here are some books to help children with the subject of death. I’m sorry I don’t have time to get all the bibliographic info, but I know for a fact you can order these books online.


Resources for Grieving Children

Water Bugs and Dragonflies: Explaining Death to Children — Stickney

When dinosaurs die — Brown (age 4–8)

Sad isn’t bad — Mundy (age 4–8)

After Charlotte’s Mom Died — Spelman (age 5–7)

Gentle Willow

For Adults: Parenting a Grieving Child: helping children find faith, hope, and healing after the loss of a loved one — Poust

Helping the grieving student: a guide for teachers — The Dougy Center for Grieving Children

35 ways to help a grieving child — The Dougy Center for Grieving Children

11 October 2006

Goju – at 01:07

One day “They” caught me bringing preps into the Utility closet. I had been doing it secretly since the zoo in jakarta closed fall 2005. It must have been January when they finally noticed… or at least said something… “Dad, why are you buying so much stuff and hiding it in the utility room?”… I said “don’t worry about it… its nothing. I just want to have extra stuff around”. I figured they’d think - oh yea dad’s at it again…. and I walked away.

I felt really bad about telling them that. I knew they didn’t believe me and being the good kids they were, just stopped asking questions.

So i went in and told them the big bad truth… and that i was doing everything in my power to keep them safe… That was my job and i was going to do it the best that i could.

We talk about pandemic often. We talk strategy. I run prep ideas by them. They’ve gone through the reaction adjustment with me. I firmly believe that they will be just fine SIP for months. My son is a good guitarist so i bought him enough stings to last 12 months of constant playing. Hey - nightly singalongs. They are very helpful in all chores now and actually wash their hands a lot. They have learned that washing hands often reduces colds.

The strangest thing is that they are aware of the death rate for their ages and that is the main reason for their mature atitude towards it. Since it will affect them the most… they feel as if they need to take control of the situation. They are not afraid.

Kids are 13 & 15 & 20.

EnoughAlreadyat 02:33

For starters, I downloaded those “coughing in your elbow” posters and taped them to the refrigerator. I’ve also ordered some age appropriate books on BF… can’t remember the names… but when they make it in I’ll post. As far as death… I am letting nature lead. My mother passed away in June… we dealt with that. We lost a pet goat to a wild pack of dogs. A family dog was ran over this summer. Those are just natural events that give children an opportunity to learn how to deal with grief.

Presently, I have stuff sitting around in buckets (I wanted to see how much would fit in each bucket) waiting for the mylar bags to arrive. My 13 yo grandson said, “Man, we’ve got a LOT of food! Why?” I told him none chalantly, we always have a lot of food. He said, yeah… but we have more than normal. I explained after last years hurricane I knew we needed to keep more on hand just in case anything ever happened. We discussed how we used our hurricane preps last year. I explained what I was doing with the buckets and how that would help keep the stuff safe longer. The 8 year old had been helping me getting stuff out of the freezer and putting it on the table to dry. He asked why we were doing that. I told him to kill bugs. BIG mistake. Now he is telling everyone and anyone NOT to eat rice or noodles… because they have bugs. He is refusing to eat rice and noodles. I drove him to where they were harvesting rice. Then we went to where they store it in silo’s. I told him that is where the bugs came from, and it was my job to kill them. Still, no go. SO… I made gumbo … with rice. He ate it… gobbled it. All the same, IMHO… DON’T let your gets see you “killing the bugs” in your food! It just isn’t worth the headache!

Wolverine – at 03:16

This is a great topic. One of my girls is 7+ and she’s as sharp as a tack. We never thought she was paying attention to our bird flu conversations until one day she shocked us with “Are you talking about the bird flu AGAIN?” I was floored..so I asked her what she knew. She told me that chickens spread it and that it makes people sick. Well, I thought, that’s sobering. So now she knows that we’re prepping for the family, and whenever we buy or receive something new she says, Boy, you guys sure are prepared for anything!” <LOL> I must admit, though, that I worry about her fear level. I really hope that it is not stressing her out.

lugon – at 03:44

EnoughAlready – at 02:33 I downloaded those “coughing in your elbow” posters and taped them to the refrigerator. Great advice, thanks!

Some children do as many adults: say it’s all “this weirdo’s thing” (mom’s thing, dad’s thing, whoever’s thing) - but not really something to take seriously.

But my guess is most will absorb something very clearly: our “deep survival” attitude (yes, I’m talking about the book). We can and should “model” this for them even if we’re dieing inside.

So, IMO, we’d better go through at least the main part of our own adjustment reactions first!

What are the specifics of this particular side of our AR? I’m frankly scared s-less about my own. It looks like I always decide that it’s better to do other things.

Children touch us all, don’t they?

Average Concerned Mom – at 06:44

EnoughAlready:

Please share thise with your 8 year old grandson. When you cook your rice or noodles, first put them into a seive or collander and gently agitate about 10 times.

According to WELL-KNOWN food inspector, this procedure shakes any possible critters out and away into the sink, leaving you with clean product.

My mom told me so!

Now, I always believed this. Of course, my DAD told me that the chamois I used to wash his car with, which I knew was an animal skin (and I was at the time a vegetarian!) was OK to use because each year the chamois shed it’s skin and left it on the ground of the mountaintop for the people to gather and sell.

I believed this until I was about 17 I think, pretty gullible, huh! (-:

Oremus – at 11:22

Rent or buy the movie “Osmosis Jones” and watch it with your children. It helps them understand germs and how their bodies respond to them. Also you can discuss Bill Murrey’s character’s lack of good hygiene. You also get the bonus of a very entertaining movie.

14 October 2006

Blue – at 05:11
 That’s one smart seven year old, wolverine..they are so smart.

 Great thread for protecting the population as a whole…(lets keep it visible).
Petticoat Junction – at 17:15

My daughters have known we were gathering extra supplies as an emergency prep-type of thing (lol, even the 4 yr old is always putting extra TP and such in the cart…”For emergencies, Mom!”).

They’ve had ample chances to practice, too, between averted house-fires, tornadoes overhead, our water main forever breaking, etc and know the value of being prepped. Due to one of my former incarnations as a preschool director, they’ve also grown up knowing how to cough in their sleeve, use sanitizer, bleach toys, all those germ-reducing strategies.

Last night, however, I talked more seriously to the oldest two (10 and 11 yrs old). I told them that there is a chance the flu could get really bad this winter (didn’t get into avian vs seasonal), enough to close the schools, stores, and such. I also told them that if it got that bad, we’d be staying in the house for several weeks, perhaps much more. (I’m already pretty persnickity about keeping them home if they’re ill so as not to spread it to others; again, a holdover from running a preschool/daycare.)

I was very gratified by their response; they took it seriously but without panic, really thought it through and asked very good questions.

They asked if they could go in the backyard….about what would happen to people who didn’t stock up ahead of time….about ordering things we needed off the internet (but then thought about the truckers and mailmen having to stay home). The 10 yr old asked what we would do with our trash (yay, good thinking!). The 11 yr old asked if there would be power and water (yay, more good thinking!). They wanted to know if the hospitals would be overrun and have to use barns like they did in the Civil War.

They began to realize why we now had a camp stove, crank radio, metal trashcan, etc. Both thought we should buy more vitamins and extra of dd#2′s asthma meds (already done).

They talked about life w/o electricity and said that they thought it could be an adventure. They also figured that there would be some families who might not like to be together that much, lol, but that since we wouldn’t have tv or computer we would probably have more family time. Both mentioned Little House on the Prairie and asked if they could get extra craft supplies to have something to do if they were stuck inside.

I realize that they have an idealized view of SIP (although since we homeschool it wouldn’t be a huge change in some ways) and this time around I didn’t get into what would happen if any of us got sick, or how bad it really could be. But the two older remember when I had West Nile and was incredibly ill and they, then in 1st & 2nd grade, were pretty much on their own during the day.

I also assume that those kind of questions will come up eventually and we’ll just deal with them in a FluWiki kind of way (lead, don’t panic).

For a first pass, though, I thought it went very well.

MLBIT – at 18:10

I don’t mean to be unkind, but that story is more appropriate to the elementary crowd than preschoolders. Changing the words mother and father to mommies and daddies doesn’t cut it to make this age appropriate.

It’s too long, has too may concepts and the concepts are beyond the preschool age group. Stories for this age group, even those that deal with the death of a pet, friend, parent or themselves, don’t get that involved.

If you really want to try to prepare your little ones, get some books from you local public library or purchase them online and save them for when the pandemic actually hits.

Try these:

When You’re Sick or in the Hospital: Healing Help for Kids by Tom McGrath, Tom McGrath (Illustrator), R. W. Alley (Illustrator) Annotation: An introduction to the world of hospitals and illness, addressing questions and feelings faced by sick children

I Miss You: A First Look at Death by Pat Thomas, Leslie Harker (Illustrator)

Sad Isn’t Bad: A Good-Grief Guidebook for Kids Dealing with Loss by Robert W. Alley (Illustrator)

When Bad Things Happen: A Guide to Help Kids Cope by Ted O’Neal, R. W. Alley (Illustrator)

18 October 2006

Blue – at 14:30
 Taking the kids out of school and not going to work will be a good way of explaining the seriousness of a pandemic!
crfullmoon – at 14:58

Wouldn’t you have wanted some advance notice, at whatever ages you’re thinking of, Blue?

They should have sent that US Dept of Ed.webcast to the schools for the students to watch, but, since most of the parents haven’t heard we’re in a pre-pandemic alert period yet…

30 October 2006

Tamarin – at 16:11

I would just like to comment that preparing(not scaring) our children is the loving thing to do and kids already know much more than we think they do. The story given here is great and even a preschooler will get the main points. I have friends who try to shelter their son from every disappointment and “bad” thing in life. How will he deal with such things as an adult? Who is going to be there to “hide” all the bad things when he is the daddy? Raising a child this way cripples him.

Our children(13, 10 and 4) know about the realities of life because we all experience them together. They know that their father and I do everything we can to keep them safe and healthy but some things are beyond our control. I believe that this is a balanced view of life. Learning that sometimes we cannot change unfortunate or uncomfortable circumstances is a helpful life lesson for all ages. To truly be prepared we must learn that we cannot always have things go the way we want them to be and how to adapt when it does not go our way!

My opinion is that anyone who is not slowly letting their child see the scary parts of life is going to have a real basket-case on their hands when the inevitable does occur.

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.ExplainingPandemicsToChildren
Page last modified on October 30, 2006, at 04:11 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Iowa Preppers

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Iowa Preppers

25 March 2006

ricewiki – at 01:53

Anyone in Iowa here?

Quoth the Raven – at 03:41

(as I pop up from behind last year’s dried cornstalks…) Yes, an Iowa prepper here, from the Iowa City area.

mommaof3 – at 12:05

Central Iowa here. No one else I know of in this area. Hit an incredible store in Cantril, Ia this week- down near the Mo border called Dutchman’s store- picture old fashioned hardware store, grocery store, Ben Franklin, and bulk foods- mostly VERY reasonable! Wish I would have been more prepared to shop!

Family Farmer – at 12:23

Yah.. there are more of you! I was wondering about starting an iowa prepper thread! Northeast Iowa here.

Quoth the Raven – at 13:06

(waving enthusiastically to the west and northeast) Hi mommaof3 and Family Farmer! I don’t usually post during the day because I’m a night shifter, but I’m up WAY past my bedtime today. Glad to know there’s a few other Iowans out there getting on this boat. I’ve been working on prepping for a while now (about 6 months I guess), but have a long way to go before I’ll feel like we are ready (mostly due to limited budget). I have three kids (ages 13, 9 and 6) and a husband to prep for, as well as one young couple we have invited to join us if the need arises.

So Be It – at 22:42

Hello! I usually just surf, but since I’m in central Iowa, I want to add my voice here. I’m glad to know I’m not the only one in the state who is paying attention to this issue. Thanks. Have any of you contacted your city governments about preperations? I haven’t, but I wonder what the reaction would be if I did.

26 March 2006

Sivad – at 07:00

Hi, I am in south central Iowa, just a few miles from the Missouri line. Been prepping since about November. It is hard since we have no big stores nearby.

27 March 2006

mommaof3 – at 10:22

Sivad, Are you near the Dutchman’s store in Cantril? The variety of bulk food in the store is phenomenal!!! (and you’d be helping a local business :) ). Might be worth checking out.

How about water purifiers?? Most of the sites can’t sell to Iowa due to taking the flouride out of the water- checked campmor and berkley. What are your plans for water? Maybe next trip to Cabelas will have to check or have one shipped to sis is Il to bring here her next trip?

so Be It, I haven’t contacted our local govt- will try to this week. Problem is the board of supervisors main job seems to be bickering! We’re lucky to have a fire department. I did ask at our pediatrician office and just recieved this blank look.

IowaGatorat 10:28

Hello from South Central Iowa. I’m a recent transplant from Florida and can’t help but feel a little more secure now that I’m surrounded by corn fields rather than condos… I too can recommend the Dutchman’s store. I’ll be making another trip down there in the next month. I’m about 50% of the way there in terms of my preparedness goal and every day feel a little more in control of things! Hope you all are well.

Back to work…

MyKidsMomat 10:48

Hi! Just checking in from east central Iowa on the Iowa-Illinois border. Even though I live in a larger town (by Iowa standards, anyway)I don’t know anyone else prepping, and our community officials and local school districts are not discussing the issue at all. Don’t know about the water and power folks, but I’d be very surprised if their answers were any different.

Eduk8or – at 11:05

MyKidsMom- the superintendent of my daughters school has been pretty open to my emails, but until I sent him website links and newpaper articles (online) his plan was just wait for the state to tell them what to do and would plan on using the school for the mass vaccination, like they did in the late 60′s for small pox.. didn’t realize there isn’t a vaccine for BF

… never thought about mandatory school closings for months on end, how teachers would be paid, bills paids, kids educated… he’s at least asking questions now

I’d be pesistant even if under an alternative email address to send online links or the USPS to send print material.. I also involved the health & science teachers as well as the school nurse… sometimes an internal employee asking questions will help get the ball rolling.

Our town (small by Iowa standards : ) is clueless, mostly elderly (>70) and 40% of our familys in school are on free & reduced lunch even if they wanted to limited budgets are reality. The bright side… we have a lot of backyard gardens and are close to dairy, beef and swine production…

Sivad – at 14:42

Hello again Iowa Preppers, Thank you for the info. Now to add to the stories, I talked to the Director of Public Health, when she came to care for my Mom. I asked her what our county plans were for the BF. She replied, we sure hope it does not come. I gave her email addresses, but she tells me she does not know much about the computer. DUH. We too are former Floridians. Mom lived 40 years in Clearwater and we did live in Eustis and Cocoa Beach. I have been copying articles from various areas and sending to our local newspaper. So far, no articles. Double Duh!

Patch – at 15:44

North Central Iowa here, close to MN border (that’s all the more specific I care to get at this point). Prepping is pretty minor to this point. We are small community with lots of farming operations close by. Cattle, Hogs, chickens, all nearby. That might be good, or bad. Also have deer and other wild game, that are as close as our backyard.

Our town has done nothing. People are aware, but I would call them, guardedly optimistic, when it comes to the possibility of a Pandemic. Sounds about right to me, but I’d like to see more planning, “just in case”.

My company is beginning to consider pandemic plans, which is good. One of the managers actually heard Osterholm speak many years ago and his messages stuck with him for a long time, so it wasn’t necessary for me to push too hard. I fill a supportive role.

Quoth the Raven – at 17:09

Glad to see more Iowa preppers popping up. I imagine an Iowa map with little lights going on here, and there. So far my efforts in the Iowa City area to find out what’s being planned locally have come to very little. I decided to start a business to sell very basic preparation kits which include many of the items on the U.S. Gov’t planning list for individuals, as well as a small number of masks and gloves. This is not a money-making venture, as I’m trying to keep the price as low as possible. I’m currently preparing a mailing to all of the churches in our area, including a cover letter, a copy of the government planning list for individuals and a copy of the planning list for faith-based communities, as well as several copies of the brochure for my preparation kits (the brochure has a lot of educational material about avian flu, quotes, and web links for more information). In the grand scheme of things I don’t really care if I sell very many of the kits, I just see the business as a way for me to try to spread word of H5N1 and be able to deduct some of the expenses of doing so from next year’s taxes. With each brochure I hand out, I have hope that another person has at least been exposed to the idea of prepping and might take the time to learn more.

anonymous – at 21:57

Wow, Glad to see others too! I’m in Des Moines, I have been following the news with the Times and CNNupdates at work and finally started planning. My parents have stocked up a little and hopefully after the talk we had last weekend they will do more. My kids think I’m crazy and I keep sending emails links to my ex cuz my adult son and family is currently living with them. I’m expecting them to move in with me when the flu hits. I mentioned the Bird Flu at work and they said “they are not going to worry about it nothing they can do about it anyway.” I am trying to get things organized but,like a lot of others, not getting much help. I just looked at the city of des moines website and nothing was posted, I sent emails to counsel members asking what plans they had but all the emails bounced…State of Iowa site does have some info posted. Don’t have a lot of money saved up so will be getting a little at a time for prepping, ordered a water purifier and bought water to store and a few other misc supplies.

Glad To see others in Iowa preparing, thought I was the only one.

01 April 2006

anonymous – at 22:35

Talked to one of my previous bosses from the Newton hospital last week. One person is in charge of ‘bird flu information’ and noone else knows anything- least not that I could find. No increased PPE that she knew of, etc. They do have routinely scheduled trauma drills that could possibly help in an acute situation…

23 April 2006

KimTat 01:08

Hi fellow Iowan’s, are any of you still here?

I have continued to prep, I got a much later start then a lot of others on the wiki, I sure am thankful the wiki was here to help!

I have gotten some stuff from sams club, an ordered stuff on-line. the non food items have come rather quickly, the food is any where from 4 to 8 weeks because of the shortages, hope they make it here but I guess I will keep buying at the local stores and not count on the on-line orders until I see them.

I need lots more anyway. I never realized how much my pets eat or how often my daughter and I just grab something quick to eat. It had gotten to the point that I really didn’t have awhole lot around.

Has anyone had luck getting others to prep or make plans of any kind?

Ok-in-IA – at 09:45

Hi Iowans, I’m in North Central, not far from the MN border (Hi Patch) and have been prepping since Feb. I found out about bird flu by accident. I was concerned about the terror threat in Feb. and a link from a ‘how to build a safe room’ site led me here. My, what a shock!!. I still have some preps from Y@K. I just dumped the stored water into some garbage cans and refilled the buckets with drinking water. That was a start. Haven’t seen or or heard of any prepping by the town. I have noticed that the grocery store in a border town in MN always puts up a big display of peanut butter and crackers whenever there is a terror threat, and the bakery is handing out free buckets for those who ask. My MN doctor takes this seriously and has assisted me in getting the meds I need, but no Tamiflu. He said they had been ordered to not write scripts for it unless the patient had clinical symtoms that they could prove. He’s not sure it will be of any use anyway. Am glad to know there are other preppers here. Have you heard of any state plans for assisting people, or are we all just on our own?

KimTat 15:01

I’m guessing pretty much on our own. I’m in Des Moines, government seems more worried with the recent scandle with citec(sp) I get cnn and other news update at work and I kept seeing an occasional article about bird flu, finially I did a google search and found links to the wiki and from there other sources and started prepping. I’m pretty much on my own now, not to many are taking me serious. I have sent links, articles to different people, newspaper and organizations not gotten responses, my family…my boyfriend sorta is taking me serious, he is helping me prep by getting me set up with barrels and giving advice on optional energy sources…I have so much left to do!

Ok-in-IA – at 18:58

I’m glad you have someone to help you, I have to do it all myself. And I’m kind of long in the tooth. ;-)

KimTat 20:42

What do you have left to do? I know that just being here on the forum has helped. I’ve been quiet and just reading and getting as much info as possible. Knowing that I’m not completely alone with BF issues has helped me cope. I’ve just resently started participating a little. I’m not stupid but there are some really smart people here who give great advice and if i can help someway, be glad too.

24 April 2006

William – at 11:52

Greetings fellow Iowans. We are located in Ames. We have a growing community of Concerned Citizens and Professionals here preparing for the possibility of a Pandemic. I work with a Management Consulting Group and in the process of writing a publication concerning Adaptive Strategies for Pandemic Risk Mitigation for Organizations.

I also maintain a web site on Pandemic Preparation for Individuals, Families and Organizations: Missiontech.org, as well as a daily news letter. We would welcome additional voices to motivate local officials to begin meaningful preparation for a pandemic.

I have met with officials of the Iowa Dept of Public Health and Iowa like most states is completely unprepared and unwilling to admit it. [The recent Mumps epidemic has demonstrated the weakness of the public health system] We would like to assist local groups to develop working processes for action as opposed to stacks of paper and smiley faced reports.

Eduk8or – at 12:14

I’ve just found and have been reading our state “draft” copy of Pandemic preparedness found here

http://tinyurl.com/rwo9m

So much of this is on vaccination issues, but they do have a section stating that getting a vaccination ready will take a good long while (year or more) and then it will be distributed to those who have been determined to have high priority…

Here are some interesting statements:

  1. Consider using antibody testing to determine who may be immune if the public

situation becomes extreme and immunologically-protected volunteers are needed.

  • This is when Stage 6 has been declared by WHO but Panflu is not in the US yet
  • What is their plan for testing people for this immunity??
  1. Consider closure of certain high population density venues including, but not

limited to: Schools, Mall, Theaters

  • This is when Stage 6 has been declared by WHO and Panflu is in the US, but not Iowa
  • Know anyone that works at or whose income is dependent on servicing any of these types of settings??
  • Has the State made them aware closing these will be a decision that the state will impose on them?

The only piece I saw for staying at home was worded in such a way I missed it the first time, again this is only recommended at Stage 6, once its in Iowa

There are also statements which plan for limiting commercial passenger inter- and intra-state travel, again this is only recommended at Stage 6, once its in Iowa.

I’d be interested in knowing if there is something other than a “draft” copy.. this is already 6 months old and so much has happened world-wide since it was put out.

William – at 13:09

When I met with the IPDH they were talking up their plans to distribute vaccines and antivirals, they became very upset when I pointed out that there were none available … and it would be years before there were enough to make any impact.

Clearly they are completly out of touch with the real problems of a pandemic.

25 April 2006

Raven in IA – at 01:02

William— I am impressed that you met with IDPH. Do you know of anyone in the Iowa City area who is networking with others to work on the community preparedness problem? I have tried to find others in this area but have met with no success. I also work in a hospital (not in direct patient care) and haven’t heard a peep from the administration on this issue.

William – at 16:39

Raven; contact me through the missiontech.org website and we will discuss contacts in the iowa city area.

28 April 2006

frustrated iowan – at 12:36

Discussion via an ICN session for education officials around the state with Iowa DPH

we were told that for various and numerous economic reasons as well as enforcement problems associated with such a measure, school closings would be a last resort

KimTat 13:09

I told my daughter entering highschool this fall, once I know the BF is in the state, she doesnt go out anymore. Don’t care if they come after me, figure they will have bigger worries then parents keeping thier kids home. My Daughter, son and grandaughter is all that counts bottom line.

Sivad – at 14:48

Hi KimT, William,Ok in IA, others. I have spent much of today writing and calling the major poultry producers about the problem of processing USA chicken in China. Frankly, unless I can buy local grown chicken, we simply will not eat anymore chicken. How Dumb Can They Be? I learned of the problem on the EffectMeasure blog. Revere is on of the principals of the Fw. KimT. I understand all the Wisconsin schools will close as soon as BF is H2H anywhere in the US. Our health dept is so up to date, that they are offering mumps shots next Tues here. DUH.

29 April 2006

Raven in IA – at 02:21

Iowa does have homeschooling rules that are reasonably easy to live with; we are not homeschooling currently but did so for several years in the past. I would encourage any family in Iowa to check into your local school district’s rules if you think you will be taking your kids out of school while the schools remain officially open. Usually there are some forms to fill out; you could request the forms ahead of time to have them on hand. The officials who think parents will keep their kids in school in the event of a pandemic will be surprised at how attendance rates drop precipitously. Whether or not they will start to prosecute truancy will entirely depend on the zealotry (oops, I mean “dedication”) of local officials and their fear of funding losses — avoid the whole problem by becoming homeschoolers for the duration.

KimTat 17:58

I’m in a debate with them now about school bounderies that they recently changed, school board doesnt seem to care about the health of my child. Have gone out of my way to make sure she has meds for her asthma and adult supervision. I have driven her back and forth…way out of my way for years—open enrollment, They denied her this year due to over enrollment in one area, suggested an alternitive where she could still have adult supervision/care after school but it is out of district, so then becomes a racial issue, she is irish and they want the irish to remain : ) It’s realy a money issue, if she goes to another district they lose money. really PO’ed. If I could afford to move right now I would be so gone!

30 April 2006

Sivad – at 06:43

KimT, Stand your ground. The Iowa schools are only after one thing-money, money, money. We moved here from Minnesota three years ago. I am so disappointed in this state. It is like moving back to another century. Like you, if I had the cash….

04 May 2006

William – at 15:53

The Feds have released their grand plan; here is one thing to note.

They estimate a 40% attack rate among school children, a reasonable estimate. When one factors in that this is the most vulnerable age group, the mortality is around 75% so far, why is no one talking about a preemptive closing of schools. Instead, here in Iowa as most States, school closures are considered a last resort.

All you security moms should take note of this, the reason school officials are reluctant to close the schools is that their salaries are derived from funding based on school attendance days.

I’m not very comfortable with the image of little Johnny and Suzie being carted off by the truant officers to a potential death camp and neither should you. Home Depot is open until nine, hard to find good tar these days.

There is another disturbing aspect of the recent Pandemic Plan released by the IDPH … serological test kits to determine who has an acquired resistance to h5n1.

First of all if they had done their homework, they would know that the survivors are not going to leap to their feet in a few days, weeks , months, bright and cheerful, stacking corpses.

h5n1 infections leave long term and permanent damage to multiple organs and the nervous system. In the immortal words of Long John Silver “Arhg, them that die is the luck ones”. Secondly there is no assurance that there are not other strains circulating that can concurrently or subsequently infect.

You would have to put a gun to my head to force me to comply … hmmm maybe that’s part of the plan.

KimTat 20:24

I’ve made my son promise to come home with his baby daughter if TSHTF, regardless of what his wife and her family thinks and my daughter has been told over and over again that she is staying home,NO school… I’ve invited her boyfriend just so they won’t try to sneak out to see each other. I will go crazy with so many people in my small house again but thats ok. ( his family is not preparing either)

Tonight I offered my parents a couple of 55 food grade barrells and they turned me down, said I was parinoid and nothing was going to happen, they have stocked up on a couple weeks worth of food and thats about it. I’ll keep the barrells ready for them but this is so frustrating.

05 May 2006

Sivad – at 16:14

Do you really feel certain that they can make it home? Remember the pictures from the freeway in Houston? My daughter is in the twin cities, I am afraid that she would not make home or may be come infected in the process. Worry, worry, worry.

06 May 2006

KimTat 00:19

They live about 10 miles away at the moment, so no problem on distance. Most of my family lives in town, except for a brother in Tenn. He raises chickens in his back yard…is he paying attention to me. NO. I swear I must have been adopted or aliens dropped me off. I’m not a looney, I’m calm, I pay attention, I plan and prepare. Self suffency is a good thing.

My co-workers do nothing so far to prepare. I don’t expect my office to make any preperations for working at home nor caring about what happens to us. We are actually an internet biz, maybe not work in the current way we do now (that might be difficult) but maybe as a form of communication for getting information out,for gov, schools… if we even have internet capabilities. I don’t mention the BF to them anymore, if they watch the movie next week, I’ll be available to answer any questions and send them here and to other places to investigate themselves. I have learned so much here on the wiki.

I don’t expect my parents to even watch the movie-just out of pure stubberness and maybe not wanting to think about the possibilites.

Sivad – at 08:42

I hear you KimT about the “looney” bit. My married kids think I am way over reacting to the whole thing. Mom is supportive and even buying some of the preps. Husband is coming around too, but not as into it as I am. I have always been the planner in the family. Our community of 6,000 is doing nothing. They are fighting over whether to keep open our 96 year old water plant. It can’t be certified because it has too many problems. There is a comforting thought!

07 May 2006

KimTat 23:17

Do you know of other Iowans that are prepping, we seem to have small group here. I talked with one of my neighbors today; gardening over the fence chat/ Casually asked her what she thought of the bird flu, she said that she didn’t think alot about it at this point, her husband works at the hospital and he is consisered essential and will have to go in unless it gets really bad, he is administrative. Then we just talked about our grandkids and plumbing…

Told her about the movie Tuesday, says she will watch it.

I’m going to the doctor for the first time in 13–14 years this week for a phsyical, gonna ask about getting a pneumonia shot as well as getting on those meds to quit smoking—I think its time eh.

Think I will be passing out info to my neighbors now, haven’t had much luck with family and co-workers, I’ve known most of these people for a lot of years I can’t sit by and not do anything. Wish me luck

22 May 2006

anonymous – at 20:59

Just got back from the first of 11 forums to inform the public on BF. A packed audience of 17 and half were associates of the health department. I didn’t find out about the meeting until an hour before and from what the others said thats about all the notice the rest of them had.

No need to really worry its not h2h yet and probably will never get that far.Stocking up on supplies is not a big deal, just in case you get sick and are unable to go to the store and the store might be short on a few things. The flu if it does happen will hit everyone equally hard, pneumia (sp) shot would not do anyone any good and the water company has about 3 months worth of chemicals stocked up. AGHH

Eduk8or – at 22:22

Are these public forums a “state-wide” initiative or just for a particular county/local level??

KimTat 23:53

I think state wide but not sure. Tomorrow night two will be held. One at East High school in Des Moines and the other at Roservelt High in Des Moines. beginning at 6:30. I hope more people go and ask them tough questions. I’m guessing you may be in the Education field by your name so here is what they have said about schools so far. They did mention they have no plans to close schools, they will just keep the children apart, can’t imagine how they will do that.

Kids in all grade levels of the schools here in des moines anyway have problems getting to thier classes on time because the hall ways are so crowded. Classes are over crowded and they will never keep the elementary school kids apart let alone the high schoolers who are constantly smooching.

23 May 2006

Raven in IA – at 01:40

Well I guess I have to concede that the path they are taking is a valid viewpoint, though I consider it to be the wrong one. My immediate angry, frustrated reaction really does nothing positive to help me or my family. Whether this pandemic happens soon or not, I know that I feel better having supplies on hand. Unfortunately, I think that the grand majority of people won’t “get it” until the time to prepare is long past. I’m just about ready to close up shop on my little “flu preparation” business… it has been a black hole of effort and money for almost 6 months now, and all I’ve succeeded in doing is convincing a number of people that I wear jaunty tin foil hats in my off hours (at least that’s what it feels like). My only consolation is that if the pandemic does happen, we’ll have some extra supplies from the business that I can hand out to neighbors.

Eduk8or – at 07:14

KimT: Thanks for the update. I had heard from a previous ICN session that was their position for the schools. As misguided and ignorant as I believe it is.. obviously those at DPH have not been in the hallways, classrooms, or cafeterias in school to view the issues as you so vividly point out with those areas and K-12th grade students.

Personally, I will teach my courses on line (college) and my own kids will be pulled at the first sign of H2H in the US. After the mumps fiasco here in Iowa & how it was handled by the DPH and colleges, I believe that the decision to not close schools is based purely on economic ones for the stability of the states economy. They are willing to risk our future generations and their parents lives for $$. It would be interesting to ask them what they will do with their own kids when it becomes H2H in the state?

Raven in IA: I hear your frustration, I have mentioned to a few close friends who have listened, asked a few questions, but I don’t think have prepped beyond buying more toilet paper and rum than usual at their last Sam’s run. I have a letter I will send out to my neighbors and friends next week as well as to our local paper. My goal when the kids are home from school next week is to do a final inventory of my preps (food, medicine, & supplies) and finish the top off. As far as your consolation, especially given the situation in Romania and Indonesia this week, its looking more and more like not IF, but when.

Ok-in-IA – at 08:53

In Palo Alto County, the newspaper ran a series of articles on disaster preparation on the front page, in the last three weeks. In the list of disasters they presented, bird flu was included. They were very specific about what supplies to have on hand, how to make a bug-out bag, having a family plan etc. They specificly mentioned that the schools, grocery stores, pharmacies, hospitals etc. may be closed, and that people may have to stay in their homes. Although they did not use the word ‘quarantine’. They also went into the area of trauma recovery and what to expect mentally and emotionally after going through a disaster. I saw the paper in the doctor’s office. I don’t live in that county and can’t remember the name of the paper.’The Democrat’?? maybe. It was very well done. At least they are trying to get the word out.

KimTat 10:16

OK, i am seeding the two meetings tonight with people I know and I am coming up with a list of questions for them to ask the local powers that be.

Help and Suggestions?

Eduk8or – at 10:27

somewhere on here (or the old forum) there was a thread about questions to ask TPTB.. try searching for “what to ask” or “questions” and see what was suggested.

26 September 2006

bump – at 00:19

Bump… any iowans out there??

KimTat 22:36

yea, still here.

27 September 2006

The day after tomorrow – at 04:24

not currently but born and raised NE Iowa, family still there

iowagator – at 08:20

Yep, still here, still watching.

moeb – at 14:55

hello fellow Iowans (Ottumwa, once upon a time) imagine it’s Dec 14th, it’s about 11º outside. The power is off, water too. There’s no natural gas. You may have a generator running electricity to a fuel oil furnace but when the gas runs out, getting more could be impossible. You’ve heard about pitching a tent in your living room but April is a long time away.. a long time to be trying to live in a tent in your house. Do you build a fire outside and stand around it all day?

How are you going to spend your winters during pandemic?

iowagator – at 15:47

Fortunately I’m very lucky to be really out in the middle of nowhere. Once the generator is outta fuel, the plan is to switch to a very small woodburning stove for heat and cooking. By small, I mean enough to heat about 1000 sf. It’s a cabin size stove for our cabin sized house and bought specifically for emergencies. At last check, there are 6 large dead oaks on the property and the plan is to drop them and cut them up in the next month (hopefully long before I need them). If it happens, I expect to spend a lot of time reading, planning next year’s garden, and probably getting really proficient on my guitar, which is collecting dust in the corner way too much these days (when I’m not splitting all that wood).

moeb – at 15:54

I was most curious about your situation iowagator, seeing as you moved to Iowa from Florida… and Florida being warmish like Baja

other than the risk of fire.. or burning yourself by brushing up against the stove by accident. Your plan makes sense. Water as in frozen pipes or well pumps could be a problem. Water stored outside will freeze on you.

anyone else? :-)

iowagator – at 16:24

Hate the heat! just kidding. I grew up in central florida, went to school in Gainesville, DH’s job brought us to Iowa and I don’t know if I’ll ever want to leave. One extreme to the other in lots of different ways. The stove is in the garage and I have tons of storage space down there. The cars will be outside at that point and outta gas anyway. Actually, the catalyst for getting the stove was a concern over freezing pipes. We use propane for heat and have a 500 gallon tank and a keep-full contract with our supplier (we used less than 350 gallons for the entire past winter) but our road is really treacherous with any amount of ice so the stove is a backup for lots of reasons, not just panflu. If the power is off, the gen can run the blower for the furnace for a while but eventually the stove will become the primary heat source. Anyway, I’m storing a lot of bottled water for drinking/cooking exclusively, and will have to rely on the stove to melt ice or snow for filtering water once that runs out. (we’re on a lake but that water really is the last resort). I see the heat issue as my biggest obstacle (at least for 5 months of the year),water second, and then everything else after that.

moeb – at 16:28

here (Mexico) water is my biggest concern, followed by security. I’m amazed the 500 gal propane tank lasted that long, I’m about to buy one of those for here to run my propane fridge and cooking.

Eduk8or – at 18:16

Corn burner. DH farms 1000 acres of corn… supply shouldn’t be aproblem. But not Until the power goes out AND we run out of diesel to power the tractors hooked up to the PTO generator to run the fan off the LP furnace…. even then lots of layers, stocking caps, and hot soup, cocoa, & jello.

My BIGGEST concern and I’ve mentioned it before on the community preparedness thread, is the infrastructure of the electrical grid staying up… without it… heat, water, cooling all are gone, at least to a level that makes day-to-day life managable given the modifications/updates even farm houses have undergone in the past 20 years.

I have no issues cooking and heating with a fireplace.. I just don’t have one it was removed to “update the house” in the 40′s

… my well is too deep to manually puump water, all my shade trees died with Dutch elm 20 years ago and the hard maples still aren’t large enough to cool sufficiently in the summer. My large picture windows that used to open up to let in wonderful cooling breezes have been replaced with energy efficient non-opening double-paned low E glass…. it’s all about trade-offs.

moeb – at 18:48

I haven’t thought about burning cobs at all.. hardly the same for cow pies. I remember once seeing a corn burner, if my memory serves me correctly. What about the Amish? Are there any nearby.. could you anticipate bartering for plowing? (just at thought)

moeb – at 18:49

are there any city dwellers who would care to comment on the power situation?

moeb – at 18:51

my brother has two woodburning cook stoves he’s refurbished. there’s a nice Iowa item worth having for this

KimTat 19:37

I’m a city dweller, I have gotten the tents and below o sleeping bags, plastic for the windows and blankets, 2 Propane heaters and stove and stocking up on lots of propane, checking into kerosine this weekend too. various light sources—flashligts, solar, oil lanterns, a small solar setup to keep a few small things going.450 plus gallons of water storage, water filters and food too of course. Its just me and my daughter. I hope my son and grandaughter get here, I’m prepping for them too. Don’t have a wood burner or fireplace not sure I can get one either. Have gotten a couple of those ole fashioned bags you fill with warm water to sleep with and a lot of hand warmers, warm clothes.

The summer heat doesn’t bother me, I live in an old house and it stays ok up thru August usually, bought some battery fans and lots of battteries. The one thing that will really bother me will be no ice in the summer without elec. We’ll just hunker down and cuddle alot in the winter. Write that book or two thats in me.

Have lots of charcoal, grill and cast iron stoves for cooking with too

moeb – at 19:58

if you have access to water you can freeze ice, or harvest from nearby bodies of water… you’d need to make a place now to store it and as a city dweller I’m not sure you could do that. In the country you’d fill a cellar and cover it with sawdust. I should be possible to have ice into August.

I’m not sure what type of furnace you have, woodburning seems to be the best long term option if your house has a usable chimney and many do. you could successfully heat with a gravity feed oil furnace (fairly inexpensive) and have on hand a couple of 55 gal. drums of fuel oil along with a hand pump to switch the fuel over to the feed tank.

many of the heating methods you’ve spoken of carry substantial risk in noxious fumes and fire hazards although reading your posts I, you probably know that

moeb – at 19:59

hmmm forgive my bad edit ;-)

moeb – at 20:00

do any or all of you have guns?

KimTat 20:36

Got a bb gun. No, been thinking about it though and to sign up and get shooting practise. I’m a martial artist, but bullets much faster then kicking feet.

Have a Gas furnace, house is 100 years old and use to have a coal burner but that is long gone of course. I have been investigating a wood burning stove and been trying to make more money at work to potentially buy and have one installed but haven’t gotten there yet.

I’m not looking forward to cooking and heating with propane or kerosine, I understand the dangers, have bought new battery co detectors and have several extingishers ready. I have an enclosed front porch where I will do the cooking, plenty of air circulation.

moeb – at 20:45

I had one of those little tiny pot bellied wood stove in my last enclosed porch I owned in Iowa. that was great and in a pinch you could cook a one pot meal on it and maybe potatoes and aluminum foil wrapped items, in it. the wood you use has to be small however. Smaller than what you’d receive if you ordered wood from a supplier. I don’t imagine solar cooking would work all that well there.

plumbing? do you have an outhouse?

I ask these questions because I’m trying to determine the value of bugging out to Iowa :-)

niah – at 20:56

moeb -

If it’s December 14th, and your not having a good time bugging out in Baja (or Iowa), your invited to my place. (Tucson) I’ll be partying it up on my 40th B-day that day. :-) (If I don’t have BF, that is) ·)

niah – at 21:04

I just had to comment on the date you picked…I’m kind of fond of it. By the way, don’t ask me what that cyclops is at the end of my last sentence on the previous post…I have know idea what happened…Actually it looks kind of cool. Maybe I’ll put little cyclopses instead of smiley faces from now on… .)

moeb – at 21:06

hmm Tucson.. warmth, familiarity.. it’s the states (smiles) I wonder when a fluwiki tribe might form. That’s probably not in the cards but I’m aware it’s gone through others minds. Thank you niah (very much) :-)

KimTat 21:06

nope, no out house, have buckets and kitty litter, a back yard with bushes and trees. I have a good southern exposure,bay windows—have thought about building a solar heater. I could always go get a port-a-potty and put it in my back yard : 0. During the flood of 93 I knew several people that did that.

moeb – at 21:12

how are your preparations coming along there in Tucson… that’s kind of a large city isn’t it? I do like the idea of warmth although I think Iowa might be the cradle of a new civilizations (said tongue in cheek)

moeb – at 21:15

definitely I’d recommend the portapottie thing.. dig a deep hole in the back yard. stock some of the RV chemical. That’s a great idea

I’ve not been thrilled with my solar experiments other than pasteurizing water and I live in Baja

moeb – at 21:17

there will be a need to know how to drain your water lines. since heat wrapping them won’t work with the power off, water pipes will freeze and burst in winter time

niah – at 21:24

moeb - Your welcome. .) They’re coming along quite nicely, thank you for asking. The main thing I have some concern about is, of course, water. Unless we plan on camping up in the White Mountains for a while (about three hours away), I have no idea where fresh water will come from after ours runs out. (about 3 months worth)

I’m not stalking Iowans, by the way, I actually have relatives there, and wanted to see how Iowans were doing with preps. You all are quite on top of things. I’ve just got to get my relatives to see the light. Cheer-e-o! I’m going thread-hopping! .)

Eduk8or – at 21:26

moeb@ 18:48. The corn burner burns field corn (think just the corn off the cob, not the cob), and there are plenty of woods in our area of the state (East of Hwy 218)

no we don’t have an outhouse, but we have windmills to pump shallow welled (read- nitrate & probably pesticide laden) water we’ll use to flush toilets which drain to our septic tank and seepage bed.

We have Mennonites within 20 miles and Amish within 60, no plans to barter.

Yes we have the usual rifle & shotgun and there is a rather large rural contingency in this state that use their guns on a regular basis either at a gun club and/or for hunting as many birds & mammals as the DNR allows.

Haven’t tried the solar cooking option here, but I figure it will take a LONG time to recharge AA batteries in January using the solar charger. We have a large surface water source that we have a pasture right up to, and I anticipate cutting the ice from it and storing it in the old root cellar at my in-laws if the pandemic waves and electrical outages last into late winter.

niah – at 21:33

P.S. Tucson is getting large…is used to be more of a quaint, smaller city, but it’s been growing fast. Not quite up to Phoenix level, thankfully, but getting bigger all the time. The atmosphere around here is rather small town-ish, though, in my opinion. I kind of like it that way. People are very friendly. We live on the outskirts of town on some land that is gorgeous and it would be almost close to perfect if you added a little beach and took away about 20 degrees of daily heat during the summer…..can’t beat the sunsets, though……. :)

moeb – at 21:35

sounds good Eduk8tor… unfortunately my options are one of two towns in Iowa. I don’t really have a farm to retreat to.

Eduk8or – at 21:50

Moeb@ 21:35.. maybe you ought to price one… a small acerage is very reasonable compared to other housing prices around the nation!

Example : one down the road from us but off county blacktop about 4 miles-→ 10 acres, 5 outbuildings (old barn, machine shed, chicken coop, etc) + 3 bedroom house, small creek through the property.. between 115–125K

niah @ 21:34 I certainly hope more people in Iowa are prepping than are letting on to me personally or on this thread.. I think the danger is we feel isolated/safe from the rest of the world, and I don’t think most people I’ve talked with about this really feel the urgency, possibly due to the already self-sufficient nature of most of the peole in the state

however, the head in the sand approach- especially about closing schools as a last resort really, really concerns me.

KimTat 21:50

How do you drain water lines? So much to do and learn, sigh. Do I just open all the faucets? I know how to turn the gas off, yea me. I am such a city girl. I have learned to do a lot over the years but advice is usually a phone call away..in a pandemic I may not be able to call someone. I have gobs off books that I keep buying for just such an occassion.

KimTat 21:59

Eduk8or – at 21:50 There must be more of us in Iowa, then what is here. I have converted a couple of people, or they just have humored me so I don’t nag them and give them more handouts.

I saw something at work yesterday on a polk county/des moine health site when I was looking to see if when the flu shot clinic were starting. It had a list of names of people that were involved in planning for a pandemic, kinda surprised me.

Seasonal Flu shots start October 2nd-FYI

KimTat 22:13

http://tinyurl.com/mkb6k link to pdf of names

moeb – at 22:59

ah draining pipes. with luck there is a shut off valve in the basement.. do you have a basement? and then you open a tap at the highest point in the house where you can (upstairs bathroom). Then it’s back to the basement to open a valve to allow the water to drain from the pipes.

suddenly it dawns on me that the water will probably have been off for a while and you’ve already drained the water pipes for extra drinking water.

KimTat 23:34

have basement, thats what I was kinda thinking. Thanks

30 September 2006

Eduk8or – at 10:44

Here’s a link, the competent private instruction handbook the state requires you to file to homeschool your children. the form needs to be filed within 14 days of pulling them from school, so you have some time if your trigger point for this is really a false start.

 Note that one of the items that must be returned with the official paperwork is lesson plans for  time you are homeschooling for the year.. this includes the title, authors, publisher of the textbooks used, and I would guess (as it’s unclear how detailed they need to be) daily lesson  plans for each subject taught (minimally: english/reading, math, science, social studies).  

Speaking as an experienced classroom teacher, these take time to pull together, so make sure if you are considering this option that you have acquired the books that you’ll use and use a calendar program or something similar to map out what you’ll be covering each day with each of your children. Don’t obsess over it as when TSHTF I don’t think the local school adminstration nor the state DOE will be coming to our home to check on how closely we followed our lesson plans.

 I’m putting down the chapter, section topic and any assignments given as well as days I’ll test.. that was good enough for all of my principals for the years I wrote them in the classroom, I can’t imagine it won’t be good enough in this situation.  I’m not tying it to any particular dates, just starting at Week #1, Day #1 and going from there.

I’m taking my son’s lesson planning and progress a lot more seriously as he’s a junior and it would be nice if I can document that he kept up with his curriculum so when he heads back to school, he can get credit for those completed and be in courses that allow himto graduate on time.

You also need to check whether you’ll use a licensed teacher (elementary -k-6 or secondary - 7–12) to supervise your student progress 2x a year, along with a portfolio of work or if you’ll bring students into the school for yearly tests to check for minimal progress.

Hope this is helpful for those of you looking to homeschool when TSHTF.

11 October 2006

anonymous – at 15:22

Tempers flared Tuesday as the Black Hawk County Board of Supervisors rejected the health department’s request for more money to prepare for a potential bird flu pandemic.

Snip~ “We have been planning for a biological threat,” O’Rourke said. “It is becoming more and more imminent in our view and in the view of others.” http://www.newsnow.co.uk/cgi/NGoto/165336249?-13907 _____________________________________________________________________________ COMMENT: I’m working on contact info for these people and intend to write to them, I urge you to do this also. :-)

moeb.. – at 15:28

gasp.. choke.. spit! I was a mous~ there for a moment, sorry

moeb.. – at 15:28

gasp.. choke.. spit! I was a mous~ there for a moment, sorry

moeb – at 15:30

gives the computer the evil eye.. (wills it to behave)

Phone and email contacts for those individuals can be found at the Black Hawk County Web site.

http://www.co.black-hawk.ia.us/

moeb – at 16:05

Gentlemen,

  I recently read where you voted down funds to cover planning and preparation for an H5N1 (Bird Flu) Pandemic. I think this is a serious mistake. Throughout our lives we hear about potential threats to humanity. Usually we take these threats with a grain of salt as it’s apparent that the threats, while potentially real… usually arrive with a probability that falls outside of our lifetimes. (You know the kind, asteroids, tsunamis, solar flares and the like). In other words “they’re someone else’s problem”


 I was aware of bird flu in that context and then it began to spread… it began to infect more and more individuals. And while it arrived in 1997 with a high fatality rate, more recently it got more lethal. This is not tomorrow’s generation problem, this is out there right now, working to become fully adapted to humans. When it does, you will experience something like you have not dreamed possible. 

  Historically pandemics infect about 30% of the population. Natural immunities and population dispersion have seen to that. Today we have no immunities to H5N1 and people are tightly packed, especially in the largest cities. You need to know that whatever percentage of the population becomes infected, it is HIGHLY likely that 77% of them will die. If you work the numbers that is an incomprehensible amount of people. An unbelievable number. I advise you to become a believer.

  In 2005 Congress spent 25 million dollars on “pandemic preparation” In 2006 the executive branch requested $7.8 Billion Dollars. Again… they requested $7.8 BILLION DOLLARS. Up from 25 million. They got 3.8 Billion and snuck another 1.2 Billion under the guise of getting our borders under control. THEY (the government) do take this seriously.

 I know you may be thinking… “it’s been quiet, there’s not been alarming headlines concerning a pandemic, of late”. Unfortunately we humans are very much a “Here and Now” species. We bore so easily and if the threat isn’t backed with visible indications we become blase about it very quickly. Behind the headlines of Iran, Foley, North Korea and Oil Prices you have to be aware that H5N1 is more active in winter months and there has been no indication that it’s going away.. no indication that it is going to become less lethal. For the sake of those people you represent, educate yourselves about this and grasp the data. It’s very scary but beats sticking your head in the sand and ignoring reality. 

Good Luck,

KimTat 17:23

moeb, lol you are funny and proactive. I’ve been on a letter writing quest myself recently, whats a few more : )

30 October 2006

moeb – at 14:45

bump

moeb – at 14:48

suppose I said okay… a place in Iowa may become available to others to come together to weather this?

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Page last modified on October 30, 2006, at 02:48 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Lets Plan for Civilization Busted II

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Lets Plan for Civilization Busted II

28 October 2006

Bronco Bill – at 20:26

Part I is here

Bird Guano – at 20:40

Abraxas – at 12:15

On one of the flu blogs in the last year I read a post from a young man in Argentina. He was talking about the economic collapse in that country and how it now had a flourishing black market.

One of the things that he mentioned was gold. He recommended that you should start accumulating gold, not good gold coins, but bulk gold: rings, chains, etc.

He claimed that there were gold buyers everywhere, but that they paid a set price for gold: any gold coins or jewelry because a street trader has no way to verify the quality of the gold.

This sounds reasonable


Gold jewelery (not the 14kt stuff) has been used as currency for quite a while.

The Asian neighbors I have all have 22kt or 24kt jewelery just for the purpose of holding a store of value with a common denominator. The quality is determined by weight.

Weird stuff as jewelery because it’s so soft.

Japanese and Indians are now getting into it big time as well.

One guy I know used it to escape the Philippines during the war. Got his entire family out that way.

Quite common amongst asians.

I’ve taken their lead ;-)

29 October 2006

Cloud9 – at 07:07

Gold is never a bad idea. I’ll consider it after I am satisfied that I have enough bullets and beans. As for the National Guard, it has been a reserve force for the federal army since the 1950′s. Korea and Little Rock come to mind. It is one thing to use the military to control threats to the center. It is a whole different thing when it is used to attack the center. The military is not some faceless enemy. It is made up of our sons and daughters. If their conscience fails to hold them in check, a legion of JAG officers will. If the rule of law and conscience fails to keep the military from making war on us then remember that Romanian AK 47′s are cheerfully cheap and they are abundant.

Surfer – at 13:33

BGuano

You would indeed be wise to grab as much gold as you can afford. I too read that post. He is right. However, I prefer easily identifiable and verifiable coins as opposed to jewelry for the simple reason that I am not a jewelry appraiser - and I don’t want to become one.

Medical Maven – at 14:41

Regarding gold-If you want to establish a bit of verification of your gold’s authenticity and purity, buy from some of the nationally advertised companies and retain the invoice.

If you are an average joe, known by the buyer, that piece of paper should be sufficient to remove doubt in the buyer that he isn’t getting scammed. You could block-out the quantity and dollar amount so as to not reveal how much gold you might have.

Gary – at 14:41

What use is gold in a world where nothing can be manufactured, where all products are local and mainly agricultural and “trade” becomes exactly that? What could someone you want to trade with use it for? boat anchors? counterweights on your well bucket? fishing lures? You are assuming the world returns to something very much like what we have now and very quickly. If I had some gold coins in a post-busted civilization world, I’d beat them flat and polish them smooth for fishing lures. They are heavy enough to sink and stay bright and shiny even in the water. Can anyone else think of other uses for them?

Northstar – at 14:51

Abraxas at 11:34 — What an interesting post! Thanks for putting it up there.

Medical Maven – at 14:51

From the very beginning of the city-state thousands of years ago, Man very quickly augmented barter with coinage, (silver, gold, bronze, etc.).

Shortly after the worst has passed it will be useful. We are talking about within a matter of months.

And the world will still go round, and men of means will still want to give their ladies jewelry.

Surfer – at 14:57

Gary

When you make your gold fishing lures, I’l buy’em. I’ll give you a nickle each.

DennisCat 14:59

Gary – at 14:41 gold- other uses for them

About the only use I have for gold these days is as electrodes in electrochemical cells. If you have a solar array for some DC power, you can make a lot of “good stuff” electrochemically if you know what you are doing- Chlorine from salt and water, and so on.

If it gets really bad, I don’t think I would accept gold in trade- Labor, rice, wood, even a bunch of dandelion roots over gold. Something like gold that in non-perishable and non-consumable will not be good an investment. For example if you equate wealth with gold per person, then if there is a 50% loss of life the gold will drop in price by half. Things like solar cells and small water pumps will be worth their weight in gold.

Medical Maven – at 15:29

DennisC-You will still need coinage at some point (and without a Central Bank it can’t be ersatz), and you can not assume that the markets will be efficient. The markets for every commodity, including Gold, will be very local or regional at best. The World Market such as we have now will be gone for awhile.

And Gold has always had a very special allure for Man in just about every culture through every stage of history throughout the world.

And once rudimentary commerce begins to create wealthy men again there will be a demand for Gold and other fungible stores of value.

Medical Maven – at 15:34

One addtion to my above post-Portability of wealth (and the ability to hide it) is critical in times of disruption. The portability of precious metals will be valued by all.

Gary – at 15:44

Surfer at 14:57 Hmmm a nickle? Do you suppose you could pound that into an arrowhead?

DennisC at 14:59 Now that is interesting! I happen to have a solar array. Chlorine could be useful, it purifies water. What else can be made? My guess is that gold will probably worth its weight and not much else (other than electrodes).

Medical Maven at 14:51 What does it mean to be a “man of means” in a busted civilization? Probably not a man with a lot of gold if no one else wants it. More likely a man with sufficient food, a healthy family and enough productive folks around him so they can share (trade) resources and keep one another going.

Surfer – at 16:14

Gary

This is great. I’ll pound a nickle (or even an ounce of nickle) into an arrowhead, you pound an ounce of gold into a fishing lure. I’ll trade you even steven, one for one - as many as you can fashion. I’ll even take gold arrowheads if you get tired of making fishing lures. Fair enough? Uh, by the way, where are you going to get the gold?

DennisCat 16:20

Gary – at 15:44

I agree with your view- A healthy family, food, seeds, a warm dry place (or is it a cool dry place where you are- I remember my summer in Boron very well- the old rocket propulsion lab). If I had the Au, I would just trade it the first chance I had for the food, solar array, pumps, fuel and so on. I might keep enough for fish lures and electrodes and that is about it.

Even with just one gold electrode, you can get electrical power out of just about any other metal, just a “dissimilar” metal and salt water (or what ever you have. The gold would not be consumed and you should be able to make a battery with something like iron and gold (about 1.8 V or so, depending on what kind of iron/steel you have) That would be my first choice use.

But to be honest, I still don’t think civilization will be “busted” and we will be back to functioning at 1930′s depression levels very quickly. I hate to say it but most things around will keep going even with a loss of 25% of the people. And the ones out rioting and into mischief will be the ones that will be first to go, first to get “it”, the most likely to be poisoned and the last to be missed. (“sure looks like plant food to me”)

DennisCat 16:37

OH yes, chlorine is OK. You may want to look up ozonators. That is my chlorine backup. I have one that I got from Real Goods many years ago-it was part of a solar water treatment system I had some of my classes work on for a community med center in Hatti- I don’t think that they sell them now. The one I have is a 12V job. You can also check out fish tank places for them if you just have a small water holding tank.

I don’t know about the company but this should get you started:

http://tinyurl.com/sclvk

The thing is that Ozone is easier to handle than Cl 2. The Cl 2 just chews up things and is very poisionious.

Repomadman – at 18:27

It’s funny how some are so quick to brush aside gold and silver yet historically if you look practically anywhere in the world with basic civilization and trade you could get along quite well with plenty of silver or gold.

Now I grant that if you are expecting a loss of 95% of humans on the planet and going back to a caveman like way of life gold and silve my not do you much good while you are out hunting down the bear for dinner. I on the other and don’t expect things to sink to that level. As long as there is basic trade, basic government or basic civilization silver and gold will do you well. Whether you are looking at the situation in Zimbabwe today where they they are better off using their $500 bills instead of toilet paper because one sheet of tp is worth more than the bill, Argentina in the 90′s, Mexico or Brazil in the 80′s, Germany in the 20′s where people loaded up their wheelbarrow with printed money to go buy one loaf of bread, the US in the depresion, Holland during it’s Tulip mania, or the Roman Empire you will have done fine economicly with silver or gold.

Granted two hours after the 9.0 earthquake or the day after a EMP blast takes out all electronics in the country it is not the time to try to survive using your silver or gold. This is where your other preps come into the picture. Still, at some point, whether is it days, weeks or months after the event your silver and gold will have value. For some reason civilization goes back 100 years, guess what - silver and gold were valuable then; civilization goes back to colonial levels, guess what - silver and gold were valuable then; civilization goes back to medieval levels, guess what - gold and silver were valuable, civilization goes back to ancient (Roman, Egyptian, Persian) levels, guess what - silver and gold were valuable. In short ANYWHERE there is basic trade, government or civilization silver and gold will be valuable. That is, unless you are planning on being the only person within 200 miles living in a cave hunting that bear down for dinner that I mentioned.

Yes, other preps are vital. You need food clothing and shelter after whatever the event is. Do NOT think you can survive with just silver or gold. The day after your silver or gold may not buy you a piece or bread, this is the time your need your food, water, lighting, etc. preps, but at some point at a minimum basic trade and barter will start again (even if it is only on a Medievel level) then your silver and gold will make you very glad you were smart enough to have it.

Medical Maven – at 18:44

Repomadman, you and I are in total agreement. History and Human Nature do not lie.

But to give the other side its due-Gold and Silver would be my LAST prep, if I were a beginning prepper. You have to have the practical means and barter items to get to “the other side” in order for those precious metals to do you any good. But they will do you a great deal of good once commerce is reestablished.

Bird Guano – at 19:05

Agreed Medical Maven

I do NOT recommend PM’s as a first step.

Only a final step to preserve wealth.

Surfer – at 19:11

Repomadam

Bravo. You have the correct clue, and appearantly have a basic grasp of the purpose and durability of real “money.” Mine is probably not above the basic level (only a B.S. in Finance). Helicopter Ben has a different theory.

MM - I would not make real money the last prep. Before you buy your second freezer or the last of your ATV’s, I suggest trading some currency or stocks for real momey.

LMWatBullRunat 19:26

Lead and copper are probably more useful than either silver or gold from a purely utilitarian standpoint. Then there is iron. “Iron, cold iron, shall be the master of them all.” That is why I scrounge every piece of iron and steel I can find. But I also have the others as well.

clark – at 20:01

I thought that bic lighters, tobacco, cigarett papers and booze would be handy article to have as money. A still, some brewers yeast and some sacks of suger would be handy ways of making money in a post pandemic world.

Northstar – at 20:31

Beer is extremely easy to make, and one can buy cans of the malt syrup for about $8-$10 each that can store for years. A little yeast, sugar and water — there you go! Plus it’s the best tasting stuff you’ll ever have. The set-ups are everywhere now for Christmas giving… I know Harbor Freight carries them.

It’s a fun hobby come the flu or no… and could make an outstanding trade item.

30 October 2006

anonymous – at 00:48

BTW, if you do take a bear, make sure to cook it as thoroughly as you would pork; trichinosis affects both.

diana – at 13:23

Just a reminder of terrible events of the past. Yellow Fever, before it was known that insects were vectors. Channel 13 tonite at 9. Bridges were dismantled, men with guns kept trains from stopping in towns, but the mosquitoes kept biting. So quarentine measures didn’t work.

NauticalManat 13:56

Note that Dr. Woodson in the thread he started Stop Cutting Bait and Start Fishing I think he called it, and in his new book, which I have just started, recommends some precious metals. His suggestions are 1/10 oz gold bullion coins and silver bullion coins. A look online reveals many sources of same. While it is not on my prep list yet, still paying off more mundane items, a small amount of these and some cash would be more than prudent IMHO.

OnandAnonat 14:04

I have a list of items that are easy to find now, but will be difficult to impossible to produce absent industrialism. This list includes things like-

-Fish hooks, all sizes;

-Canning lids and jars;

-Nails and screws, hardware generally;

-PAdlocks and hasps;

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Boston Public Health Conference Volunteer Reporter Needed

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Boston Public Health Conference Volunteer Reporter Needed

29 October 2006

Jane – at 19:39

Would anyone like to be the Fluwiki blog correspondent at the American Public Health Association conference Nov. 4–8? If you can do it, apply for a media pass soon (maybe tomorrow or Tuesday before they get really busy, my daughter recommended). I don’t know what credentials are necessary, but my daughter suggested that I apply. But I’m 1000 miles away, so it isn’t convenient. It would be great to have a first-hand report on current thinking. btw, there was a poll of all APHA members about pandemic and how do you get people to pay attention. The results are supposed to be released during the meetings.

 The specifics about pandemic discussions are on the November conferences thread-sessions are Mon., 11/6,  2:30–4 -planning for pandemic influenza-federal, state, local, and tribal perspectives, and 2:30–4pm, experiences and exercises in responding to epidemics and bioterrorism,  (2 at the same time-ugh)  (Actually 3:  Zoonotic Diseases:challenges for recognition, monitoring and control, including the role of pigs) and Wed., 11/8, 10:30–12, non-pharmacological interventions, ethical issues, community engagement.   There are too many topics to list.  Even a South Asian Public Health Assoc. symposium.

http://apha.confex.com/apha/134am/techprogram/

30 October 2006

Goju – at 00:41

Bump

Jane – at 10:54

Any takers?

LauraBat 13:46

I wish I could - I live close enough and could even stay up there for free, but I’m stuck on JURY DUTY for “an unspecified period of time.” Like I don’t have anything better to do then hang out at court for a few days!

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Dr Woodson Book Says We Will All Be Exposed to it II

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Dr Woodson Book Says We Will All Be Exposed to it II

30 October 2006

Bronco Bill – at 12:19

Continued from here

clark – at 13:42

I look upon the potential pandemic flu the same way I look at AIDS. Once everybody understood the AIDS virus, it was readily avoidable. Until the penny dropped, AIDS was the “wrath of God etc etc”.

IF H5N1 goes pandemic, within 3 to 6 months, the general community will have figured H5N1 out as well. The flu is a virus, not a black curse from outer space. I plan to keep my mouth shut in my local community. I did all of my letters to the editor months ago.

WE have monster log trucks barrelling threw my town everyday. I have easily mangaed to avoid them all of these years, without too much thought. I can avoid a flu virus if I put my mind and the mind of my kids, to the task. If we don’t, it is just bad luck or bad judgement

I am not afraid of looters etc- I plan to have a very low profile. Having visited and lived on a few communes in my time, I can tell you “community” is the last thing I am going to be seeking under the circumstances. This is not a hollywood disaster movie. If Rambo charges at this enemy (H5N1) with a grenade launcher in one hand and an Uzi in the other, he won’t get 10 feet before he is shot down, stone cold dead.

After 6 months or so of pandemic, during a lull, would be a good time to be seeking out others. People who have managed to survive the first 6 months of a pandemic would have some real skills- and will have proved it.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Mass Fatality Management Plans 3

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Mass Fatality Management Plans 3

18 October 2006

pogge – at 20:50

Continued from Part 2.

20 October 2006

Volunteers needed – at 13:45

It seems like local funeral homes have still not been contacted either by their industry nor by local officials in the pandemic “planning” process.

If anyone has some Pandemic Awareness, cards, handouts, ect printed up, consider dropping off or mailing some information, if you don’t wish to “cold call” anyone.

(Wonder how this went? NFDA 2006 convention; Oct. 15, Pandemic: Are You Prepared? Carol Green, Law Offices of Carol Green, Bethesda, Md. John Fitch, NFDA Senior VP, Advocacy Division, Edward M. Ranier, Esq., NFDA OSHA Counsel, Lord & Whip, Baltimore, Md.Track: E (.1 APFSP CEU), )

Just found this: Cremation Association of North America Pandemic White Paper pdf from a “PI” USNORTHCOM event March 2006, Virginia.

Number to those estimated “to perish” during another PI (pandemic influenza) event in the US “between 5% and 7% of the infected population” (est 25% infected) (numbers provided by JTF-CS) (and also manage the 2.4 million deaths annually in the US)

Looks like this eight-page White Paper would be worth printing out. Even if you need to talk to politicians or school systems, or pandemic planners; the Assumptions and Issues are going to be all of our problems, as communities.

‘’‘ “Many of our JTF-CS committee members believe the single most important message that must be relayed to our senior leaders at the local state and federal levels is the need to develop a mass fatality/mortuary affair Emergency Support Function (ESF). …

Additionally, mass fatality/mortuary operations must move to the forefront of disaster planning rather than continue as a topic no one wants to address for all levels of government.” ‘’‘

26 October 2006

add any fatality plans here – at 09:45

(thanks for the tip) (‘Scuse my disjointed snips here) New Mexico “Guidelines for Developing Local Pandemic Influenza Response Plan, Introduction – you may choose to use or adapt language from the State Pandemic Plan”

…”New Mexico will most likely have between one to six months from the identification of a novel influenza virus somewhere in the world to the time that outbreaks begin to occur in New Mexico”…(Not!)

…”In addition to risks of exposure, essential personnel and the general population will also be psychosocially affected by the illness and possibly death of family members and friends.”…

…”Disposition of Dead Bodies, Sections 24–12–1 to 24–12A-3, NMSA 1978 • Burial of Indigents, Sections 24–13 −1, et seq., NMSA 1978 • Annex 6, ESF 6 Public Health, Medical & Mortuary”…

…”In accordance with the US Department of Homeland Security, National Response Goal and Homeland Security Presidential Directive 8, preparedness activities must be dedicated to the creation of capability in four mission areas: prevention, protection, response, and recovery “…

…”overwhelming the system’s mortuary resources, including morgue capacity, medical investigative and forensic personnel, and services available for disposition of bodies.”…

…”5. The initial Pandemic Influenza event will likely last 8 – 17 weeks and will likely be followed by a series of Pandemic Influenza waves each also lasting weeks to months, continuing for up to two years after the initial outbreak “…

…Managing Mass Fatalities including expanded morgue capacity in conjunction with NMDOH and OMI”…

NMDOH Emergency Operations Plan Appendix 2

…” NMDOH, in collaboration with Office of the Medical Investigator (OMI), will develop amedical and mortuary surge planning document…” …”NMDOH, through training, coordination, and technical assistance, will facilitate development of medical and mortuary surge plans using NM MEMS concepts within the health care infrastructure with specific emphasis on local integration and coordination.”…”As resources permit, NMDOH will provide materials, supplies, and fiscal support to assist local entities within the healthcare infrastructure to build healthcare, medicaland mortuary surge capacity and sustainability” (Devil is in the details, and lack of resource$ )

p20 …”Vital Records and Health Statistics Bureau…2.Develop and implement plans for providing timely death certification during a pandemic when it is likely that there will be staff shortages and an increase in the number of deaths.Utilize E-Vitals Program for web-based resource.

3.Provide death certificates

p22 …”Office of the Medical Investigator…2. Collaborate with hospitals and funeral directors to identify resources available to deal withan increase in the number of deaths.

3. Provide autopsy and diagnostic services on potential cases of influenza, as necessary.

4. Coordinate with hospitals and funeral directors to assure safe handling of bodies to include request of refrigerated trucks if needed to hold bodies until they can be interred”…

(Hm.don’t think 3 and 4 are “go”, unless attack rates, deaths, and collateral deaths are very, very, very, low)

p23 …”The Executive Committee will develop, review, exercise, improve and coordinate the Pandemic Influenza Emergency Response, Appendix 2, in collaboration with stakeholders outside of NMDOH, in the private and public sector, including infectious disease practitioners and physicians, hospital and health care systems, local health care providers, local Emergency Managers, health emergency planners, law enforcement, and tribal communities”

NM MEMS

…”MEMS was developed for a non-communicable biological agent (e.g., anthrax) affecting a civilian population. (The New Mexico adaptation accommodates response to a communicable agent.) MEMS assumes that existing resources and health care delivery systems will be overwhelmed. MEMS is modular and scalable, and mobilizes key resources to respond to an event depending upon patients numbers, acuity type(s), and medical services needed. It is consistent with general principles of incident command and works to utilize and coordinate medical resources in the local medical community. MEMS is a medical response planning concept or framework which describes how resources might be reconfigured in order to address the unorthodox patient flow and health and medical needs associated with catastrophic events; such events negate the effectiveness of traditional health and medical delivery systems . It is NOT a plan or a program. There are six MEMS modules each with distinct functions and purposes”…

“9. Mass Fatality Plan – this is a plan that provides for managing mass fatalities and should include expanded morgue capacity. This functionality was not part of the prototype MEMS model”

“10. Preparation of Pre-incident Public Information and Risk Communication – these are the protocols and materials needed to keep the public informed and educated, including the critical importance of self-care. This functionality was not part of the prototype MEMS model”

“21. Work with the Office of the Medical Investigator (OMI) and the NM Funeral Directors Association to develop plans for increased morgue capacity and forensic services at the state and local level”

(still see too many “future tense verbs”- I may not be looking in the right places…want prepared details, not problems-to-solve list)

LEG – at 22:50

Before I go raising any flags with local “officials” (VERY small town here, caller ID and all), does anyone know what the protocal would be for dealing with a family member dieing within our SIP? We plan to bury our own on our homestead.

27 October 2006

Jumping Jack Flash – at 00:53

I don’t know what the “protocal would be for dealing with a family member dieing within our SIP” is, or if there is a protocal. My intention if I or a family member contracts H5N1 is to have a matress on the garage floor with 100 feet of rope tied to it. If one of us croaks the surviving family member can drag the matress and body out in the field to rot. I know that doesn’t sound like a very nice way to treat a family member, but I have to think of saving as many family members as possible (if any).

Gary Near Death Valley – at 01:04

One thing I have done, at the request of the little lady here, is pre-dig some graves with the tractor, and fill the holes back in. If I were to die, she would have to figure out how to get my remains from the house, but the hard part would be digging thru the extremely hard soil here. So I used the bucket on the tractor to dig a couple of holes. On 2.5 acres and the place the graves are dug, is at least 250 feet away from any well, or septic system. I refilled the holes with the loose soil, so a normal shovel could easily dig down. We are very practical in our thinking, and try to cover as many bases as we can on our preps, and this is just one more. Still have to pick up a bag of lime the next time we go to Las Vegas.

Chesapeake – at 06:24

Our hole is dug also. Jumping Jack Flash- I hope that field is out of sight of the house.

prepmaniac – at 08:00

This is a tough one for me. If I leave a body outside, the vultures will eat it within 24 hours. Awful! They will then have human bf I guess. I can not dig here. The hole will fill up with water. I thought if it was a child, a metal trash can would be good for protection from being eaten by animals, but the thought of putting a child in the garbage can haunts me even though it would be new and a good container. I can’t think of any solution for this.

Madamspinner – at 08:58

This is a very tough issue to even think about, much less, deal with at a time when the remaining survivors are grieving and/or ill themselves.

My mother doesn’t know this yet; but I aquired a body bag “kit”; thru my doctor. ( He’s also the county coroner) …He tried to give me TWO of these; and I refused. Because if the survivor also succombs to the BF; there would be NO one to put THAT body into anything,…bag OR grave.

We both have our cremations and plots paid for; at a large cememtery in a larger city; but during a pandemic; a regular funeral & burial probably wouldn’t be possible. So it is the plan, to zip the deceased into the body bag; TAKE DNA samples, pictures, leaving a glass jar inside with ID info; and burying the body out behind our apartments. This place has several well-kept acres, saved for future developements---that would serve as temporary resting places for the tenants. It’s the only thing to do in our case.

crfullmoon – at 12:18

LEG – at 22:50 Some states currently would let you get a burial permit with no funeral director, if a doctor had been “in attendance” and had “pronounced” death, and you had a death certificate. (I hope emergency laws will allow others to legally do all those steps.) If any authorites or law enforcement can take the time to care, they’ll be a little concerned with sorting hidden homicides from natural causes, I suppose.

I have had a plot for years, but, I’m pretty sure the town/cemetery dept is currently totally unprepared to see my body gets under there during a surge. Ground frozen would be trouble, too, if fuel is gone for heavy equipment, and, last I asked, the staff who dig the graves was not aware/ready for a pandemic year. If they’d like to cross-train, staff, they’d better get started. (And how about asking cemetery neighbors if they’d like to learn how to hand-dig? ha)

Local officials charged in “planning” for pandemic have been very remiss to not notify local funeral homes, faith community leaders, businesses, and, the public. The solutions for fatalities under pressure during a catastrophe will not be as good as the ones we could come up with now, and adjust to ahead of time. Forget “panic”; think Outrage

Chesapeake – at 12:24

prepmaniac- what about a pile of rocks or bricks or paving stones. You will need a lot.

crfullmoon – at 12:28

Hm, those cement blocks are an idea. Some places with high water tables basically do that.

I wish places would stock up/get volunteers to make basic caskets, but, officials’d rather just hope no pandemic even happens, or, at least not have to have these conversations with the public about it…

28 October 2006

prepmaniac – at 07:56

We don’t have natural rocks around here. I have decided that mabe I could dig shallow holes,just to remove dirt, dig a shallow grave (to avoid water)and pile dirt in a mound like fashion. The problem is to keep animals from digging up. I guess I need to include chain saw or ax in my preps to cut tree limbs to cover graves. I wonder though, if I can handle either one of those. Better idea just occured to me. I should get some bags of easy mix cement to pour over graves. Then, it wouldn’t matter if the graves are not very deep. The animals would not be able to dig through the cement. Even a thin layer. Yes. Preps you might forget…. bags of cement to cover shallow graves.

crfullmoon – at 17:49

Utah (wish the current MA gov had stayed there.) Ahem

Utah, still Nov 2005. (epidemiology is already significantly different from the planning assumptions - when will they “modify” their plan?)

p10 When the pandemic period has begun, …upon likelihood of its imminent arrival in Utah…”Local coroners and funeral directors will be advised to prepare for increases in the number of dead and provided with any infection control guidelines specific to the pandemic virus.”…

(Ouch! that’s all, folks!) Who will tell the Utah funeral directors?

Utah Funeral Directors Association

Hm. http://health.utah.gov/training/ November 01 2006 Infection Control Update Home Health Aides and Home Attendants, November 09 2006 Mass Evacuation to Rural Communities, November 28 2006 Planning and Execution of Disaster Response, December 14 2006 Managing Contemporary Mass Fatalities Incidents “

crfullmoon – at 18:22

Texas -really, still October 24, 2005? (p18; Rrr!)

p 35, “Phases 1 and 2″… Health Service Regions and Local Health Departments will …data collection … to maintain a statewide inventory of… j. mortuary and funeral services”…

“Pandemic Alert Period, Phases 3, 4, and 5″… ???

(Appendix A; don’t see any mortuary group in the PIPG)

Appendix F Phase 5: …public “begin to acquire a 3-month supply of non-perishable food…”

Hospital Bioterrorism fatality plans will not work for a pandemic influenza year.

(At least the Texas Funeral Directors Association website says, in their resource links page, “Texas Department of State Health Services (DSHS) Do you want to know what the state’s draft plan for Pandemic Flu is? Click here.”

Make notes, Texans; DSHS pdf FAQ #10.

Petticoat Junction – at 18:29

Our county health dept (central Texas) was supposed to have a big conference this weekend, including a section on DMORT (Disaster Mortuary Operational Response Team) planning, but it was cancelled last week w/o explanation. I haven’t heard of any new plans to reschedule. Too bad, they really needed to work on that.

crfullmoon – at 18:42

ok..hm. DMORT, Region VI http://www.dmort6.org/custom_work.htm (“FEMA Region VI states include Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas.” ) Aha - I found the conference you mentioned -the DMORT part would have been given by Terry Edwards, who seems to be the same on as in that Region VI link.

EOD – at 18:57

What about burning (cremation), if you live in a fairly isolated area anyways?

crfullmoon – at 18:58

Houston, Annex H, Health & Medical Services, Appendix 3, Morgue Services, the HCME is responsible… Appendix 6 State and Federal Medical and Mortuary Assistance…

That’s just the city’s Emergency plan; nothing that was for months of mass fatality surges.

Texas Pandemic Summit BREAKOUT SESSION – Healthcare March 27, 2006 …”Take lessons learned from Katrina, especially with mass fatality plans”… (But, those devilishly unspoken details? What were the lessons learned, then?)

…”Question 2: Who are the key persons and agencies that you will have to partner with in order to conduct pandemic influenza continuity planning ?”…(does list) “Medical examiners, Clergy,…Mental health , …Funeral homes and morgues … Ice rinks – for temporary storage of bodies “ (Ouch!)… (hahaha: “Maybe utilize media such as Oprah to get information to the general public”)…”Question 3b. What are next steps”… “Take back to leaders who think ‘this is crazy’ and don’t understand it’s not ‘if’, it’s ‘when’ “ …” Planning for cultural and religious issues - distribution of remains; rural vs. urban”…

crfullmoon – at 19:16

EOD – at 18:57, authorities might wonder if you were hiding a homicide? Also, if you don’t get legal paperwork/death certificate, the legal problems may go on for years, I imagine. Also, I hear cremation is not so simple to accomplish.

A poster who said they were in the sanitation field said, if infectious stuff was not incinerated properly it could spread disease. (Spanish flu and the army burning manure before the outbreak comes to mind too.)

(from ifishoulddie.co.uk “EU laws governing emissions from crematoriums during the last ten years have led to most being updated and computerised. Since carbon particles are outlawed, crematorium now emit only invisible gases. Contained within these are dangerous pollutants, including dioxins. Crematoriums are thought to be responsible for approximately 9% of airborne mercury emissions, caused by the combustion of dental amalgam, 12% of atmospheric dioxins, pollutants linked with cancer and other illnesses, and emissions of the chloride and formaldehyde used in the embalming process. “ ) (pay for embalming and cremation - huh.)

link “Marvin Tameanko, retired architect and specialist in ancient architectural coins comments: “To cremate a body, bones and all (but not the teeth) you need lots of sustained heat. The Romans used a pyre, called a ‘rogus’, which was built with log cribworks, like a hollow log cabin, erected in stages, getting smaller at the top where the body was placed. The rogus was filled with straw and kindling and set alight. It acted as a chimney and funneled the heat to the top, incinerating the corpse. Herodian, the Roman historian describes the rogus in detail. After the cremation, the ashes were placed in a stone building, called a ustrinum”…

I think people need to get their local officials talking about how communities can plan together now, to efficiently and respectfully handle their dead, so they don’t get piled up to wait for Halliburton to get paid to do it, nor do people have to do pyres and plague pits in their backyards.

Bump - Bronco Bill – at 20:21

30 October 2006

prepmaniac – at 08:06

A burning human body is not something you want to look at or smell. It might seem like a good idea, but the reality is something that could give normal people flash backs that are triggered just by the oder of a hamburger. Please don’t try this. It won’t work any way.

crfullmoon – at 11:17

“people need to get their local officials talking about how communities can plan together now, to efficiently and respectfully handle their dead”

if they say they “think that won’t be necessary” hand ‘em the current cfr chart off the Wiki, and, some of the good stuff in the What is TLC thread, and the How many children will die in a 1918-like scenario thread…

(if this thread is getting too long maybe a mod can start a new one?) What’s before Texas in the alphabet? That is what state we’ll be looking at next, after I get some other things done first…

Closed and Continued - Bronco Bill – at 13:17

Closed for length and continued here

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Whats Your PPF Part VI

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Whats Your PPF Part VI

15 October 2006

On the fence and leaning – at 12:17

Time for a new thread. Number 5 was getting long. Here’s the original:

13 August 2006 On the fence PPF3 – at 00:23

A few weeks ago I came up with something called the PPF- Personal Pucker Factor, a rating of how worried I was about the bird flu going Kung Fu on us. It has been modified, changed etc (nicely done I must say) but it sort of dropped off the radar. Things have been extremely busy on here lately and it’s been hard to keep up with all of the news, new faces, new threads, etc. I used to think I had a good idea of how the wiki community was ‘feeling’ but it’s getting harder and harder. I would like to try to reconnect with the mood of the wiki so I am asking for volunteers to share their own PPF. On a scale of 1–10, where do you feel you are now? Where were you last week? Last month? (1 is NO WORRIES AT ALL and 10 is “MSM is going to announce within 24 hours that we need to quarantine”) This might help all of us get a sense for how our ‘neighbors’ are doing. I’ll start: Last month I was at a 4. Last week I was at aiming at a 2 but I am settling at a 3 for now.

On the fence and leaning – at 12:19

By the way, there have been some develpments in the news that have caused me to start climbing again. Back up to a 4, nearly 5. We’ll see how this thing in India and the upcoming flu season play out…

Edna Mode – at 12:20

My PPF at the moment is quite high. The confluence of what is going on in India, Indonesia, Papau New Guinea, and this morning Nepal is starting to get me thinking it may be time to call the troops home. I would love to see Tom DVM, Medical Maven, Monotreme, and other regulars commment on this.

Edna Mode – at 12:21

And to clarify, I don’t me “The Troops,” as in US forces. I mean “my troops,” as in kids and DH.

LauraBat 12:25

The Nepal thing definitely has me moving my PPF up a notch. The fact that people are going so quickly is very alarming and sounds just like 1918. I also didn’t know that Nepal was a suspected “ground zero” for 1918.

Monotreme – at 12:30

Edna Mode – at 12:20

There is not enough evidence to conclude that a pandemic has begun. That, of course, doesn’t mean it hasn’t. My alert level went up after Karo and has not gone down since. No reason for it to. There is a strain of H5N1 that has the ability to go H2H2H with a high CFR. It has been adapting to humans. There is a huge animal reservoir (including at least some mammals). IMO, a very severe pandemic could start at any time. This is why people should be prepped right now. However, we may still have many clusters, perhaps getting progressively bigger, before the pandemic begins. We can’t get anxious every time this happens. It’s just too emotionally draining. I’m still looking for hospitals going down as my indication that a pandemic has started. Once that happens, it’s time to bugout if you are going to do that or make whatever final preps you are going to make if you plan to SIP.

I do think it’s good that people are watching the various “pots”. One of these days, one or more is going to boil over and we are all counting on our fellow Fluwikians to give us a heads up.

Edna Mode – at 12:43

Thanks Monotreme for the guidance. I appreciate it. My preps are done. The only things left are icing on the cake, which we could well do without if push came to shove. It sounds to me like what you are saying is that these geographically expanding events are going to be the “New Normal” for a while before the TSreallyHTF. Is that an accurate interpretation? The only big question I have for you, Monotreme, is this: Don’t you think by the time hospitals are crashing overseas that panflu will already be on the doorstep of the outlying countries (outlying from ground zero)?


‘’From PPF V thread: But that 9/11 thng was totally unique for me, the compulsive preps immediately beforehand and then the only prediction that I have ever made to my brother or to anybody else like that.

Medical Maven: I absolutely believe you should listen to your instincts. They are more often right than not. Minor example: Literally an hour ago I was stacking wood with DH and DS, who is 8. I was out front loading the wheelbarrow. They were out back stacking. As I was loading I had the thought, “I hope DS doesn’t get any dust or chips in his eyes.” I was going to talk to him about it when I brought the wheelbarrow load back to them. About 10 seconds after having that thought, DS comes around the corner of the house calling to me to help him because he had something in his eye. I obviously was having the thought at the precise moment he was getting something in his eye. People are connected in ways we can’t even begin to fathom.

Closed- and Continued – at 12:45

Hmm, perhaps this explains my compulsion this week to finish a bathroom tiling project, including a new floor drain.

:−0

Bird Guano – at 12:46

Sorry, that was me from the last thread

Monotreme – at 13:37

Edna Mode – at 12:43

hese geographically expanding events are going to be the “New Normal” for a while before the TSreallyHTF. Is that an accurate interpretation?

Yes, that’s what I think.

Don’t you think by the time hospitals are crashing overseas that panflu will already be on the doorstep of the outlying countries (outlying from ground zero)

It depends. If I lived in Indonesia, I’d bug out right now. If the pandemic begins in a small village, we probably won’t know about it for a while. OTOH, it probably won’t spread very fast from there. Once it gets into any major city, we will know about it pretty fast. The downside is that it will spread to other major cities pretty fast. I think it’s possible it will be in the US before we realize the pandemic has started. But if so, the number infected will probably very low. I think we will know the pandemic has started before our individual risks are very high (for North Americans). But I also think the window for completing bugout or final preps will very narrow. I would not count on having more than 48 hours before travel restrictions are imposed at the state level, and perhaps less than that.

Spirit in the Wind – at 20:45

TomDVM darlin…are you shopping yet? Get thee to the nearest food warehouse and take care of business.

Edna Mode – at 22:15

Monotreme – at 13:37 If I lived in Indonesia, I’d bug out right now…Once it gets into any major city, we will know about it pretty fast. The downside is that it will spread to other major cities pretty fast….

Thank you for being so honest and direct about this. I have to say I don’t think in my family’s case that we can afford to wait for hospitals to collapse overseas. Our community is an hour from Logan. 20 minutes from another large regional airport that is a frequent alternative to Logan. Many locals, including many of my children’s classmate’s parents, travel internationally every week. I’m not pulling the plug yet…

Along another vein, in an attempt to balance reactions, I looked up info on past dengue/chik outbreaks in India and found this on the WHO site. http://tinyurl.com/slr4g

Haven’t had time to digest it in the context of the current situation, but I thought people might want to look at it.

JWB – at 22:47

My PPF is done. I am now looking beyond all of this. I can see my wife and child and I having a great time in the park on a beautiful spring day. (They are in uncontrollable laughter from the frisbee hitting my head). 8-D

Many Cats – at 23:02

GOOD FOR YOU, JWB! We all need to be reminded to live for today, rather than be totally fixated on tomorrow when things such as beautiful spring days playing in the park may not be so easy to come by. LIVE, don’t just prep or you may just prep your life away!

16 October 2006

Edna Mode – at 09:00

The notion that living for today and prepping for tomorrow are mutally exclusive is a fallacy. Simultaneously prepping and playing hard are possible.

Goju – at 09:07

All prep and all play makes Goju a happy camper

cottontop – at 09:28

I agree with the above comments. It important to keep our lives in prospective more so now. It’s hard sometimes not to get carried away by all of this, and letting it dominate your life. Then someone calls you back, and helps to put you back on track. it’s good that we all remind each other from time to time, to still play, smile, laught, enjoy our families. I must get back to what I was doing before I discovered you wonderful people, and that’s my writing. It’s been bothering me, that I have replace this with my passion, and hopefully my dream come true. Just trying to keep things in prospective for myself. I like Goju’s motto, and I’m going to try to balance both. (I need 30 hour days, instead of 24!)

preppiechick – at 11:13

Ok, i am back up again. Like many on this forum I vacillate between 4 and 8, not much between. I am still living this double life, where i pretend in my outside life that nothing is wrong, but secretly panic at home. I do get worse when I watch the news or spend too much time here, and I’m am just paralyzed with inaction much of the time. I know in my gut that something is coming and to sell my house and move out, but I was wrong on y2k, so i don’t trust my gut.

My problem is if we move out, we really won’t have any work (and we’re already in deadsville…in real estate and construction field…so slow, that i can’t keep up the preps, and have been using some-thank god they were there!) and I don’t want to take my kids out of their school, and with a major roadwork project starting in the spring, I think that it would be impractical to think that we could commute. What bumped me up this morning was this link below. In conjunction with Petticoat Junctions observations about activity at bushs tx ranch, on part V of this thread, I’m am really concerned about the “watch what they do, not as they say”. Maybe I’m spending too much time with my tinfoil hat on, but it did seemlie odd timing. Thanks for the free therapy session ;) !

Bush buys land in paraguay

preppiechick – at 11:25

seemlie = *seems like

Are we there yet – at 11:35

preppiechick – at 11:13

Oh that was a rich one. LOL. I’d be pretty skeptical about this report. : )

Green Mom – at 11:38

preppiechick-this is odd, and I don’t have a good feeling about it AT ALL. I also go through spells of just being almost paralyzed in inactivity,-I just want to keep checking the wiki, but I have got to get going now….Thanks for above info even if it did raise the ppf……

preppiechick – at 13:09

green mom- I agree, that’s why I posted it. Ihave also been reading the rumors thread- put that together with this and it is all too coincidental. I think I will repost my comment on that thread, too- maybe someone can verify from a msm site.

Urdar-Norway – at 20:07

I dont know what I would have done if I lived in Thailand.. But lets imagine living a good life there, why go somewhere else? After all we are talking about a pandemic right. And that means It will eventualy get everywhere.. The only advantage I can think of beeing in Europe or the US would be to have a few hasty weeks of preparing.. But lets look at the diferneces on sociity. What culture will have the largest impact? The west with is population not used to catastrophies, deaths and deasese? Or indonesia who realy have taken its toll the latest years. Which socity will stop the distubution of food, water etc beacuse of fear, panic, malfunctioning rationaliced systems etc? My guess is that Indo will handle this much better than any rich western country in the long run.

hmmm .. maybe we should all move over there.. We do after all have plenty of translators in our forum that knows local streetnames, names of vilages , where hospitals are etc. better than anyone ;-)

17 October 2006

Dr Dave – at 08:54

Everyone needs to see the “Stop Cutting Bait” discussion. It was started by Dr. Grattan Woodson. He feels that the WHO should announce stage 4 and he has encouraged us to get ready while supplies are still available. I remain at a PPF of 9.

cottontop – at 09:29

Dr. Dave

 Exactly!!  And this was the point I was trying to make yesterday, when I posted on the Indonesia thread, that I found something “odd”, which was the numbers.  There is something that doesn’t make any sense to me, and I mean that in a bad way.  I wasn’t trying to debunk this, only to say, it is my belief that there is more going on here, than we are told.  It is not unlike that government to surpress vital imformation for various reasons.  This is their practice, always has been.  It is my silent belief that this already has went H2H, but as I was stating the numbers are in conflict, with the panic of the situation over there.  

If I want to be honest with myself, I would have to put my PPF at 9 also, but to keep my sanity, I won’t be so honest, and still hold at a strong 3.

18 October 2006

That’s Just Ducky! – at 02:32

cottontop – at 09:29 “…It is not unlike that government to surpress vital imformation for various reasons….”

It would probably not be unlike the government to suppress viral information either. (I simply couldn’t resist :) Ha Ha)

cottontop – at 06:44

I agree! There is just something really “fowl smelling” going on here. If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, it’s bird flu, H2H.

Green Mom – at 07:45

You guys are making me laugh this morning-definatly a good thing! I wanted to thank everyone for their kind thoughts and good wishes this last week when I was having such a stressful time. My ppf regarding flu is still up there-probably an 8 at this point, but Ive made good progress in getting the stress in other areas in my life down. Ironically enough, the flu has helped! I think to myself, Ok we’re facing this bleakly grim prospect of pandemic flu and I’m letting a wonky co-worker get to me? So not worth it. Ive arranged to do as much work as possible at home, and I’m avoiding this person as much as possible-to the point of having someone else record meetings so we don’t have to be in the same place. I’m hoping these avoidance tactics will work, if not, I’ll leave. I just don’t chose to waste my energy trying to deal with a toxic destructive person-I need that energy to deal with a toxic destructive virus! I need to keep my spirits and energy up because I percieve we have a very rough road ahead of us!

Thanks again, everyone for your support!

cottontop – at 08:58

Green Mom- a thanks goes out to you too. You have also been supportive, and have gave encouraging words. It is hard at times to deal with just life in general, never mind a global monster. I’ve had to regroup myself, and doing better. We all get grumpy, and low sometimes, and you see that. Thanks. (raises coffe cup)

Petticoat Junction – at 09:41

My PPF is still rising, esp with the odd circulating undiagnosed diseases and posts from Dr Woodson’s and anon’s spouse. Oddly, I can deal with that, almost as an objective observer (dissociation is a wonderful thing, lol).

What is more difficult is trying to keep it from turning into anxiety (hasn’t yet, but only because of a concerted effort on my part not to let it) over not being able to do anything to assuage it. (What a post-modern analysis, lol) I *want* to finish prepping like Dr Woodson suggests, and would spend the next week day and night doing it, I just haven’t found a way on our budget (or at least enough to cover a family of six).

I was in the aisle of a store yesterday, having to decide how many of the clearance power bars (only 15 cents each!) I could get (ten, btw) and whether or not I could get two more cans of vienna sausage at 2/84 cents (I did, but only after scrounging for change in the bottom of my purse and putting a couple of power bars back). My preps last night consisted of rolling plastic grocery sacks into groups of 25 to use in the emergency bucket/toilet…silly but the best I could do. At least it was something, right?

The ‘extra’ right now is going to pay for a portable nebulizer for one of the girls (who is on a round of Prednisone right now…I keep thinking, if one small bout of a low-level upper respiratory crud knocked her asthma into full flight, what would PF do? Not a happy thought.)

I still haven’t been able to afford any kind of water purifier or the extra cost of more Rx meds (though I think a dr friend who is going to help me with some samples on a one-time basis). I have 4–5 mo. of food set back so far but if the grid goes down and I lose the rice, beans, cornmeal, etc that will put a definite bite into the storehouse; I’m only just now able to add a very few prepackaged types things here and there.

I got two rechargable lanterns and a crank radio for my bday, but other than that batteries are expensive and it’s hard to add to the stash (I am, it’s just very slow going). We’re looking at generators but no way to afford one right now (even if we knew anything about them, which we don’t) so if the grid does go down, our options are minimal.

I try to look at everything I *have* been able to accomplish and stay positive about being ahead of where we were. And I hope this doesn’t come across as whining, because that isn’t really how I feel, but I read the threads and look at our four girls and get so frustrated. Dh is, too; he takes this *very* seriously and I know it’s a stress for him to feel like he’s not providing for his family to the level he wants to (and after the whole blood pressure thing last week, I am trying very hard to keep stressful things to a minimum for him, so he doesn’t realize the extent of my own stress in this area).

Sorry for the PPF vent but like I said, I don’t really want to burden dh more and had to say something to someone. Must get back to unhappy teething toddler now…no more time/energy to waste on these esoteric concerns, I suppose. ;o)

cottontop – at 10:32

Petticoat Junction- you have my sympathy with the teething toddler. Mine are 13 and 4, so I’m done!

I’ve gotten in kinda late on this, and have really had no idea of the full magintude this could cause, and the prepping that goes along with it. (much more than preparing for natural disaster, ect.) we are fortunate to have the generator, and two kersone heaters, first and foremost. We couldn’t find one here now if we wanted to. people from buffalo are coming up here, Watertown, and have cleaned us out of generators. We are on a very tight budget, tight being an understatement. I do the very best I can for prepping, and don’t put any pressure on myself because we can’t afford this or that. Have learned how to be resourceful. Every item I pick up I feel that I have accomplished something, and I ‘m one step closer to my goal. My PPF will go up through the roof if I see others in the store buying what is percieved as prepping stuff. I always look in the carts, for some strange reason. And I think we here use this place to vent sometimes, because everybody home is tired of hearing us go on and on. At least WE understand.

Good luck with toddler.

LMWatBullRunat 12:04

I’m up to a 7 from 6.5. That’s as puckered as I have ever been, for reference.

Hillbilly Bill – at 12:19

I’m past puckered and resigned to the coming Pandemic. Now I’m playing a rather dicey game of deciding which prep items on my wish list I should get in the short term and which should be put off. Optimism for me means hoping that I live to regret some of my decisions.

Average Concerned Mom – at 12:51

I never assigned a PPF number before, but I am getting nervous. Watching that great Dept. of Ed webcast just sent me through the roof. It wasn’t actually alarming given what I think could happen; but hearing officials talk about a pandemic and not clarifying “of course, it will probably be mild, but just in case”…taking things very seriously — suddenly made me finally realize this wasn’t a bunch of nuts on the internet egging each other on. Well, maybe we are egging the Dept. of Education on. (-:

But my factor is also up because I am percieving the enormity of it all, and feeling like I can’t afford all the prepartion and I want to have, and realizing we will have to leave the DC suburbs quickly if something happens, especially this year. That has added a whole ‘nother layer of uncertainty.

AVanartsat 13:16

Like HBB, I’m past the puckering part and am waiting for it to happen.

lohrewok – at 13:25

I have been feeling a little blah about the whole thing. I don’t know how to describe it. then Dr. Woodson’s link to his book on amazon really turned me off. I just wish he hadn’t done that, it just sticks in my caw a little. Part of it is resignation that it will happen, just want to get it over with. The past 2 years have been a time of major turmoil for me (not related to flu) and this is just the icing on the cake. I guess PPF is a 5.

Oremus – at 14:50

I feel like Noah, loading the last animals on board the ark (making the last preps). When complete the rains will start.

Hillbilly Bill – at 14:59

Oremus – at 14:50

And then it truly will be time to say, “Let Us Pray”.

Texas Rose – at 15:09

I tend to hover between 5 and 7. Yet beneath it all I have this running through my mind: I’ve survived natural disasters, a child seriously injured during combat, and nearly dying during a medical procedure. I’ll survive this, too, and so will my family. I’m a survivor.

That doesn’t mean that I won’t whine and bitch about how miserable/unhappy I am while surviving, though.<grin>

Olymom – at 15:13

I found bags of tealights at Walmart (fifty for 3.99 I think). A couple bags of those made me feel better about lighting. Some camping stores sell tiny lanterns that hold a tea light. (also cheap).

Generator? Not worth the dollars, the danger or the headaches for all of us on a budget. Expensive to buy, you have to buy and store fuel, you either have to be very sharp with your electricity skills (NO errors) or hire an electrician — then the da… thing roars when it’s on. Think Amish instead. Lots of quilts, long underwear and wool socks. All can be recycled to the next kid/cleaning rag box.

I was pulling back to a level five until the Ed. gov video release. Now maybe a 7

cottontop – at 15:20

amen texas Rose!

OKbirdwatcherat 15:28

HBB at 12:19

“Now I’m playing a rather dicey game of deciding which prep items on my wish list I should get in the short term and which should be put off.”

That’s exactly what’s causing me to lose sleep. Some days I think I’ll just take the plunge and buy everything that’s left on the list and be done with it, but so far I just haven’t been able to do it. I know that anything to do with water and heat/cooking are top of the list. Food is taken care of. Some water. Lighting. Any advice??? Kick in the pants???

Niah – at 15:37

Please let the drizzle stay slow…I’m not ready yet…

Trying to be ready, but hubby’s business was a little slow this summer, and we sort of took a bite out of our preps. Trying to get back where we’d really like to be for our two little boys, but it’a little slow going. Need another month…no heavy rain yet, please! :-)

PPF - 6

Cinda – at 15:37

I was pulling back to a level five until the Ed. gov video release. Now maybe a 7

When was that video? I totally missed that. Can I still view it?

Niah – at 15:43

Is there a link somewhere to the video? Thx!

JWB – at 15:47

Oremus – at 14:50 I feel like Noah, loading the last animals on board the ark (making the last preps). When complete the rains will start.


It’s already drizzling my friend.

JWB – at 15:53

Niah – at 15:37

 Did you see my post at 15:19?

I did but it just disappeared. That’s why I reposted it at 15:47.

We must be getting a lot of traffic today.

Average Concerned Mom – at 15:59

the department of education webcast link can be found on the wiki home page under tip of the day.

But I think GraceRN posted a link to just the audio which worked better for me. See the thread about the Dept. of Ed broadcast. Her link was on a great New Hapshipe web site about pandemic flu preparations - also check that out!

(I’ll post actual links if I can — I’m CANNING! — and caring for 2 extremely whiny children.)

cottontop – at 16:07

JWB at 15:53 I’ve been having trouble posting/connecting to the threads. thought it was just me.

JWB – at 16:08

I CAN”T TAKE IT ANYMORE!

Last night I dreamt I was reading the fluwike. It was a news thread on either India or Indonesia. I don’t know which, all I got was a IND thread. Bad news about it starting.

OK fine. Silly dream.

Just now, for the hell of it, I went to Microsoft Word and typed in IND (CAPITAL LETTERS).

If you got your tinfoil hat on you know where I going with this.

Highlight IND and change the font to wingdings.

What does that look like to you?

(and where do wingdings come from? Chickens!)

Are we there yet – at 16:16

JWB – at 16:08

LOL. You need to take a loooooooooong vacation from the wiki.

Bird Guano – at 16:25

HBB at 12:19

“Now I’m playing a rather dicey game of deciding which prep items on my wish list I should get in the short term and which should be put off.”

That’s exactly what’s causing me to lose sleep. Some days I think I’ll just take the plunge and buy everything that’s left on the list and be done with it, but so far I just haven’t been able to do it. I know that anything to do with water and heat/cooking are top of the list. Food is taken care of. Some water. Lighting. Any advice??? Kick in the pants???


WATER first, and a way to purify more

Shelter/heat second, especially if you live where it’s cold

FOOD third, and a way to cook it.

Every thing else past that point is gravy.

Dr Dave – at 16:33

Petticoat Junction, if you have 3 or 4 months of food for your family, that is really good. That puts you about 2 1/2 to 3 1/2 months ahead of most families on the planet.

OKbirdwatcherat 16:34

JWB at 16:08

It is October 18 after all;)

JWB – at 16:50

OKbirdwatcher – at 16:34

Yes I know. I went to Sam’s a lunchtime today for one more big buy. Got the usually “Sir, if you are going to buy in bulk like that, you might want to look into a Premier membership.”

(Yeah, whatever).

After reading the news coming out of India, I think I’ll be stopping at Sam’s again tonight.

Niah – at 17:00

JWB – at 15:53

I DID see it! :) My post was in response to yours…then after I posted, yours disappeared! Kind of made my post look a little silly…lol

Edna Mode – at 17:27

Bird Guano – at 16:25

WATER first, and a way to purify more

Shelter/heat second, especially if you live where it’s cold

FOOD third, and a way to cook it.

Every thing else past that point is gravy.


You are 100% correct, Guano. I sometimes think there might be a “Keeping up withe Jones” effect here on the wiki. I have put my money and effort into low-impact, low-profile preps that will meet the absolute essentials my family needs to survive. The only thing I would add to your list are meds, OTC and Rx if you need them.

Petticoat Junction, You are doing very well by your family to have put back that much food. Focusing on no or low cost preps is a smart way to channel nervous energy. I have a ton of things on my To Do list that don’t cost a penny but take time. It’s a good, solid, rational coping strategy. Pat yourself on the back and feel good that you are doing everything you can. That’s the best any of us can do.

JWB – at 18:29

Niah – at 17:00

Good! Whew!

I thought I might have just dreamt it!

19 October 2006

Green Mom – at 00:28

JWB- I have thought for a while that it would be a good thing to keep a journal of this outbreak of flu-would it be fantastic if we could find journals dating back to 1917,1918? Besides, for me writing helps keep me centered. So in honor of your dream, I started my pan-flu journal with October 18, 2006 as its first entry.

Lets hope its a very boring journal.

BeWellat 00:58

Petticoat Junction – at 09:41

Just read this thread, and am wondering if you have a campstove? You mentioned if the grid went down your beans, rice etc would be off the list. I’ve cooked on propane stoves a lot and some are better than others. Coleman makes two burner camp stoves, a lower grade and higher grade, and there are other brands too. A couple of 5 gallon tanks of propane would last a long, long time. If you can afford a pressure cooker, that cuts cooking time, especially beans, way down, which conserves fuel.

I don’t know if you live out in the country or not, but wood fire cooking is an option - not easy, but an option. I would love to have a wood cookstove but haven’t the room at the moment.

Regarding DH’s BP and stress - one thing that helps us is “Whatever will be, will be - the future’s not ours to see”. That there is divine providence, and we just have to try our best, but ultimately, we are not the supreme controller. If you have done what you can do (and for each person, it’s different), that’s all you can do. Then just rest knowing that God will take care of the rest.

(I was always nervous to use a pressure cooker until a couple of years ago. Now I cook all my beans in it - soak overnight first, and then cook, most cook in 1/2 hour or so.)

mj – at 01:07

JWB – at 16:08 I’m not crazy about your dream. I’m from… INDiana. Would prefer that it not even come here, let alone start here. And I’m from the City of Firsts. We don’t want to be First in this, tho.

Anon_451 – at 01:10

mj – at 01:07 North or South Indiana. I am in the south and I know we are toast.

mj – at 01:17

Anon_451 - Kokomo, City of Firsts. Ft Wayne looks good, but here? My hospital, and the other across town are prepping, but … I asked at City Hall and got “the look” and “duh”. Where in the south are you? I have family right at the tricorner of OH/KY/IN.

Anon_451 – at 01:19

mj – at 01:17 Tri Corner of IL/KY/IN.

AlohaORat 01:31

I hit my “Goju” moment today — I’m ready to start talking with friends that aren’t yet prepping despite my “lighter” discussions with them. Rather than overwhelm them, I decided to recommend a “bare bones” approach that they would be more likely to get started on, and then suggest sources for reading further. Here’s what I sent out:

Dear [Name of friends],

As you know, I have been following the news about the potential for an influenza pandemic for about a year now. Unfortunately, the news has become worse, not better, over this time. I now believe that there is early evidence that the pandemic has begun at a low level or will begin this winter.

Because I care a lot about you and your family, I ask that you seriously consider taking some basic steps to prepare for a possible pandemic *right now*. Those steps are:

1. Stock up on nonperishable foods and household supplies — at least 6 weeks’ worth.

Each wave of pandemic flu is expected to take 6–8 weeks to run through a community. I anticipate that schools and public gatherings will be closed by public health orders during each wave. During this time, you can protect yourself best by staying home. In addition, we can expect that there will be food/supply shortages in the stores as people do panic-buying at the last minute.

Please consider including: — Rice, beans, canned soups or meat, baking mixes, canned fruit, your favorite foods — Bottled water, broth, 7-up or ginger ale & juices — Paper products (toilet paper, paper towels, personal hygiene products) — Over-the-counter medications that you use (pain-relievers, etc) — Cleaning products (antibacterial soap, bleach, dish soap)

2. Think about how to get/purify water if our water supply is disrupted, and how to prepare food and stay warm if there are rolling blackouts.

For planning purposes, experts predict that at least 1/3 of the U.S. workforce will be absent (sick or caring for sick family members) during each wave. This may affect energy availability (refineries, power plants, trucking), water treatment (availability of chemicals & power), and the ability of local utilities to quickly handle problems.

The guidelines for water storage are 2 weeks’ of water (2 gallons per person per day). Sources for water are: hot water heater, hot tubs/pools, water storage barrels, and rainwater collection. Ways to purify water include boiling, bleach, iodine and filtering. It takes very little bleach to purify water.

[I gave information on local sources for water filters, food-grade 55-gallon drums previously used for vinegar, siphons & hand-pumps. I described what we’re doing for cooking & heating with interrupted utilities.]

3. Think about taking care of routine medical needs without easy access to a doctor.

One of the first community systems that is expected to be overwhelmed is the medical system. Today (no pandemic, no seasonal flu yet) [our local first-rate hospital] is at 70–80% capacity and has some trouble with nurse staffing. Imagine what will happen when 1/3 of the hospital staffs are absent and 25% of the population of [our state] is sick and showing up at hospitals (which is what [our state] expects for a “moderate” pandemic).

See if you can get at least 3 months’ supply of all prescription medication. Consider getting a seasonal flu shot — they are thought to provide at least some protection against H5N1. Flu shots are available at [name of grocery store] this next weekend.

Think about what supplies you would need to take care of yourselves with a bad virus (fluids to keep hydrated, pain/fever relief, cough expectorant, thermometer, over-the-counter products for intestinal upset, bland foods).

4. Read more about the possibility of pandemic flu. I use the flu wikie discussion forum as my primary source. It has people from around the world, including health professionals and people who scour the news from Asia (where most cases are now). I generally learn the news several days before it hits the mainstream media. Go to: [gave fluwikie link]

For a real eye-opener, read The Great Influenza by John Barry, which is a factual account of the last H5N1 pandemic. I’d be happy to lend you my copy.

My motto is to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. If the pandemic doesn’t happen, we are well stocked for food & heat for any emergency (earthquake, ice storm, etc). If the pandemic happens, we can stay at home and reduce our chances of exposure.

As a community, our best bet will be to make sure that as many of us are prepared as possible. Please pass along this information to anyone who has the ability to think ahead, imagine the unthinkable, and do something about it.

Newsie – at 01:45

AlohaOR,

Great letter! I think I will use it too. Thank you.

FYI - the pan flu of 1918 (and therefor the subject of John Barry’s book) was not H5N1.

: )

Green Mom – at 09:04

Anon- 451 I live fairly close to the KY/IL/IN triangle-maybe a three hours drive. Why do you say this area is toast? I know Louisville was hit pretty hard in 1918, and I have some fears for it now. Are you thinking anything in specific?

Petticaot Junction-reading your post about the energy bars and scrounging change really hits home. I have soooooo been there-heck I’m still there!

 Green Mom Confession time: Someone on another post sometime ago (Ive forgotten who/what/when/ now) mentioned oh so causually that he could easily drop a thousand bucks on preps and not feel it.  For a while I was just soooo consumed with envy and some yes I’ll admit it resentment. (Green Mom hangs her head in shame) I would so love it if I had a grand to spend on preps “without feeling it”  All my preps have been carefully bought, many of them BOGO type items a little at a time.  I too have spent birthday money on preps, and bought prep items for birthday gifts. But I’m coming to a conclusion that while yes Id love a basement full of preps maybe the best prepping is TIME spent learning, doing, researching.  I worry about folks who cannot clean/sanitize their homes without prepackaged wipes and Swiffers, who can’t cook without a microwave.  What if down the road, during a pandemic, The government does get its act together and hands out supplies and folks open the cartons and theres a jug of vinegar and a bottle of bleach for sanitation and dry beans and rice for food.  A lot of people are going to be hungry even with food supplies because they won’t know how to use those supplies.

I am greatly encouraged by someone elses comment-monotreme maybe? (again, I can’t remember, sorry folks, seem to have misplaced my brain) that s/he thought the cfr in families where one parent was home all the time would go down signicantly-half or maybe more-that made me feel so much better. I know that in those dark-night-of- the-soul hours (two a.m. for me) and those frustating dig in the bottom of the purse moments and those anxious asthma times and those boring roll up the plastic bags mornings, it seems so much like we’re not getting anywhere but we really are.

mj – at 09:41

Green Mom - You put prepping in perspective. We all do what we can do when we can. I was with you with the envy and resentment. (hang my head next to yours) But I’m also pleased that I’ve done so much, and am now able to remember to get BOGO with the GO for a neighbor. Not much, but a can or two will help. And I remember most of all to give thanks that I’ve got what I’ve got (microwave included)and that the best thing I’ve had and still have, hopefully, is time to prep and spend with family. I admire those with time to do so much for us. The folks on here are making the biggest difference to us all. Without them I would not be able to do (or know to do) what I have. This group raises & then lowers my PPF. I’m running about a 7 in the mornings (rested) and close to 9 in the evenings when I read/hear the news. More time would be nice, I’m praying for TSTHF not till after new years. But I don’t like what I read lately.

DennisCat 10:14

Green Mom – at 09:04 “hands out supplies and folks open the cartons and theres a jug of vinegar and a bottle of bleach”

Yes, I still remember the images from Katrina of a lady sitting on a plastic Coleman rolling water cooler in the rain complaining that the goverment was doing nothing, “they” hadn’t even given them any water.

…. you can lead a horse to water but…..

Leo7 – at 13:19

Green Mom:

Unlike you I don’t have a family to prep for, but I remember the thousand dollar comment. I’ve come to the conclusion some of the extreme preppers dropping the larger sums of cash are trying to eat very similiar to what their current standard is. Buy the basics as you are and then just do one or two comfort preps. To disinfect all you need is vinegar, bleach and water, anything else is gloss. I figure I may suffer more cause I don’t have solar panels or generators, but if I have rice, beans, olive oil and some fruit juice I will live. There will come a moment when all those plastic cards will no longer work, because big business has figured out when the red flag starts up the pole people will charge thousands of dollars, and may not be able to pay it back. I think those cards will be inactivated before the flag reaches the top of the pole.

This might be a tip you can use. On current events the flu clinic they had a discussion a while back on placing UVlights in attics. Germicidal lamps are harmful to skin and eyes but you can buy googles. The light kills mold spores, virus etc and is listed in allergy studies as being very helpful with asthma. It seemed like a cheap alternative for keeping the virus out of your house and it’s not expensive. You buy UVC bulbs with 254 nanometers and they fit into common flourescent fixtures of all sizes and you can rig them up to battery power. The key is keeping eyes and skin protected while you’re setting it up and while you check it when the light is on. Battery power is needed for when the grid goes down. Go there and search germicidal lamps. Maybe this is a can do your husband can help with because it might just slow down some of those asthma attacks you mention. Maybe someone else on flu wicki has them and can offer helpful suggestions. If I had kids with asthma I would definetly try this after reading the articles on it. I’m waiting for my bulbs to arrive in mail.

Tom DVM – at 13:35

Leo 7. Maybe to prep, all we need to do is carry a few extra pounds…they don’t call it a ‘spare tire’ for nothing.

Primitive man lived like a wolf…intermittent ravenous feasts. Every other animal in the world gains weight seasonally; increasing weight in the summer to prevent starvation in the winter.

Just because we haven’t had a period of food shortages in our lifetimes does not mean that we can’t or won’t at some point in the near future…all we need is an abnormally bad growing season.

Maybe, we should all have our feast now and we will be able to withstand pandemic food shortage…no worse for the wear other than a few hunger pains.

Comments?

Bird Guano – at 13:36

Leo7: There will come a moment when all those plastic cards will no longer work, because big business has figured out when the red flag starts up the pole people will charge thousands of dollars, and may not be able to pay it back. I think those cards will be inactivated before the flag reaches the top of the pole.


Count on it.

The software is already in place.

ANYTHING that deviates from the normal purchasing pattern is flagged.

It’s a simple matter to cap all limits if the computer recognizes a widespread pattern as the flag goes up.

Yet another reason why just-in-time prepping is a fallacy.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 13:37

Tom DVM – at 13:35 ouch Tom, but you’re right….I’ve put on weight this month alone, from depression issues, and I did the same last month and I’d worked so hard to get my weight down, but I’d stalled. Just today I ran one of those BIG containers full of water to drink all day to start again to get this weight off — I don’t want to have to rely on a spare tire during a pandemic! :-)

diana – at 13:43

I don’t prep as much as the rest of you do, but I do things as if I were in an emergency situation. I think a bit every day of what it might be like and I improvise. Am not the worrying kind. I can’t see stressing myself with worry before the event,as we may just not get a pandemic in our lifetime. Something is happening around the world with climate change and the mosquitoes and I don’t want to be blindsided. With the thousands who die in India, I doubt if they are really doing autoposies or testing. The earth is overladen with people, who is expendabel? All of us.So it’s up to everyone to puzzle this out as best they can. Prior to my becoming aware of the avian flu, the world seemed to be going along normally. Tuning into this threat has made me aware of the incredable changes in the world of virology that somehow missed my attention for the last 10 years. It is a changed world while I went about my day to day life. The internet has educated me beyond what I used to pick up in the papers or in reading and in talking to others. The entire world picture is evolving, and is changing at breakneck speed., even as the virus we have been concentrating on seems to be taking its time. I feel like Rip van Winkle who woke after a long nap of decades. Even the Bible Study class I began to take at the Episcopalian church is concentrating on the earth. Air, water and so one. They showed the film “The Inconvenient Truth” last week, much to the dismay of one traditional lady who said “I thought this was supposed to be Bible study.” I am fascignated by what is happening . Sooner or later everyone will be waking up.Perhaps not to the Avian flu, but to evolutionary changes in one of the viruses., which eventually will alter their lives forever.

Tom DVM – at 13:44

Hi I’m workin on it. Yes, I have gained probably twenty pounds since April…I have been a farmer or worked with farmers all of my life…sort of.

This is farmers logic. You have to have something in reserve for a ‘rainy day’. Nature’s way to stop you from starving to death is to give you the extra required…and without fat we would die because it acts to cushion organs in the case or traumatic insult.

When I played hockey, I would lose three pounds daily…I would always lose the battle and chronically lose weight during the hockey season.

If one of us gets the seasonal flu…we could easily lose a couple of pounds a day for ten days would be twenty pounds.

I would like to see one of those skinny actresses or models after another twenty pounds is taken off.

I think it is difficult to fight nature and I rarely see a heavy person in old age…so this weight naturally is decreased in late middle age.

I don’t know if that helps but I’m sure you are in good company…you don’t have a lot of choice with nature…you might be able to direct things a little bit but she is difficult to ignore. /:0)

Oremus – at 13:47

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 13:37

Maybe a full sized spare is bad, but a mini spare is good. 8^)

Julianna – at 13:58

Tom DVM - 13:35 Maybe to prep, all we need to do is carry a few extra pounds…

LOL! My husband and I were talking about this just the other day - and we have decided that we should be well prepared. (If we assume the following: You burn 3500 calories to lose 1 pound body weight; in approximately 2 days of activity you would burn 1 pound [assuming no food ration]; therefore each pound you are overweight would be equal to 2 days of food rations.) Of course this formula is a guestimate - people vary in basal metabolic rates (due to gender, muscle mass and other factors), and it would be dependant on activity level as well. It’s just a fun idea to play around with.

Just don’t prep this way *too* much - bigger clothes mean less money on other prep items, and we really don’t want to be looking at heart attacks during pandemic time. (haha)

Of course, this is just a fun little thought exercise - I mean no harm, it’s a good backup but I wouldn’t bank on it :)

Oremus – at 14:09

If it ever degrades to cannibalism, the fat ones are easier to catch. 8^)

Tom DVM – at 14:13

Oremus. Okay, you’ve got me…I usually look at an issue from all angles…missed this one…oh well!!

DennisCat 14:17

Tom DVM

so you are prepping……

Tom DVM – at 14:24

DennisC. Do I have to tell the whole truth…okay the answer is no…

…but I have built up a nice food reserve which like a chipmunk, I carry around with me…does that count?

I always shop on Christmas Eve. One time I was late and bought my wife speakers for our stereo…I thought it was a really nice present and expensive too…she was not enthralled with my choice.

Truth be told, I hate shopping…easy to procrastinate about.

Edna Mode – at 14:26

Julianna – at 13:58 Tom DVM - 13:35

Wow! Little did I know I was already prepped for three months! Silver lining to pandmeic: I’ll get back to my pre-pregnancy weight in no time. Good thing. The offspring are almost old enough to get driving permits!

Leo7 – at 14:35

TOM DVM:

You’re right a few extra will tide you over…but people carrying extra usually have unregulated appetities (eating without hunger). I took my spare tire off-and I ‘m not letting it come back. Imagine your car in a river and your fat ass can’t make it through the door window while the door is stuck! Unless you got a bat in the car to take out the front windshield it’s crying time. Extra weight has it’s negative side—see? I’m prepped with basics only I already know I will be expected to drive from home to hospital, because there is no where to sleep us. Primitve man was also nomadic—disease strikes the villaged moved on. Last week a call from the ED went out we need every able bodied man to come down. In the ED was a man on a huge door like from a church. He was brought in the back of a truck, couldn’t fit in the ambulance. I heard later he weighed over 600 pounds. Dude couldn’t even fit on the tables in x-ray. Very disturbing.

Bird guano: Thanks for the card confirmation, its good to know.

Goju – at 14:59

AlohaOR – at 01:31

“I hit my “Goju” moment today”

WOW - I have a “realization” named after me?

Who woulda thunk?

JWB – at 15:00

Green Mom – at 00:28

 I’m honored! (blushing) 

Yes, let it be a non eventful journal.

mj – at 01:07 Would prefer that it not even come here, let alone start here.

I second.

OKbirdwatcherat 15:53

Bird Guano at 13:36

Appreciate the info on the cards. Had not even crossed my mind. Even though I’ve been prepping since early April, mostly non-stop and continue to do so, DH and I had discussed the idea of him having a list in his vehicle of last-minute items that would be his responsibility to pick up if he ever gets a call saying “This is it.” Whatever it costs, doesn’t matter - put it on the credit card if you have to. We can always pay it back:-? He would make his run while I was making my run in a another direction for different things. We do have cards with no pre-set limits and charges do vary greatly at times, but I think what you’re saying is if there is a widespread (across the country) spike in large charges they could still shut us all down. Looks like we might need to tweak the idea:)

OKbirdwatcherat 16:01

Leo7 at 13:19 -

Thanks to you as well for the comment on the plastic cards. Yet another reason to git’er done and git’er done now.

cottontop – at 16:16

I had’nt taken the weight thing into account. Lordy, I can’t afford to loose 20 lbs! That would put my current weight down to 80lbs. I’ve been at this weight for many years, except for two pregencies, and pre-wedding over eating, 19 years ago, when I weighted 125, at 4′10. Yea! Heart bothered me. This really concerns me, as I’ve been focusing on the children and them not loosing weight, (just as thin as I am, but oldest at 13, is 5′3). I hadn’t even thought about myself. Hubby, yea, 20 lbs would be good. How could I keep from loosing weight? I would end up sick just fom the weightloss.

JWB – at 16:22

Personally, I think the denial factor that the others will be going through will take some time. But, OTOH, I wouldn’t want to be wrong on that.

The other thing that you have to consider is there may well be a plan in place to put limits, at the store, as soon as it is known. And a Walley World exec lurker may be reading these very words.

Tom DVM – at 16:24

cottontop. The point I would make is that if those around you are carrying a little bit of ‘comfort’ weight…then I would expect them not to eat and instead give their food to you…I know that I would do that for my wife and children and your husband will too.

Maybe you should put a few more pounds on him for food security purposes. /:0)

Leo7 – at 16:27

LOL! TomDVM. Cottontop would blow away in three months. Our she could conserve calories as in move slowly, don’t do busy work etc. Cottontop should add some cans of Boost to her preps—it makes some calories.

cottontop – at 16:30

TomDVM- Excellant! Then when he gives “that look,” I’ll raise my knive and point to the grill” He’ll get the message.

cottontop – at 16:31

didn’t some one mention canniblism?

no name – at 16:51

Tom DVM

Yes, BF does sound like a “acceptable” way to justify a few, like what, 20 lbs. Unfortunatly there was a recent study that concluded this extra but “not to bad” excess weight increased the chances of cardio vascular disease by 50%. Not good.

cottontop – at 17:18

hey Leo7- excellant idea. Thanks for the tip. I need more ideas, as I hadn’t realized this would be a concern. That would be typical. during a pandemic stemmed from bird flu, I get sick and die from weightloss! Go figure.

alsoLeo7- I have cousin that I grew up named Leo, and I know your not him, but when ever I see your name, I think of him and his family, so I give a call. He’s 1500 miles from me, so we try to keep in touch. Just wanted you to know.

InKyat 20:28

cottontop - at 16:16

You won’t blow away at 80 lbs. I’m 5′1,” and I didn’t blow away when I weighed 87 ;→.

I think I’d rather stash the food that would put on the twenty lbs. until I’m actually hungry.

Wolf – at 20:51

Friends - This can’t be said enough. Please PLEASE don’t count on the last minute plastic.

Bird Guano – at 13:36

Leo7: There will come a moment when all those plastic cards will no longer work, because big business has figured out when the red flag starts up the pole people will charge thousands of dollars, and may not be able to pay it back. I think those cards will be inactivated before the flag reaches the top of the pole.

Count on it.

The software is already in place.

ANYTHING that deviates from the normal purchasing pattern is flagged.

It’s a simple matter to cap all limits if the computer recognizes a widespread pattern as the flag goes up.

Yet another reason why just-in-time prepping is a fallacy.

cottontop – at 22:16

InKy- at 20:28

No, I don’t think I’ll blow away. I think Leo7 was being silly. I just don’t want to become malnurished, and get sick. We all know, when TSHTF, it’s ALL hands on deck to batten down the hatches. And I’ve been thinking about that, stashing the food. The Boost from Leo7 is a very good idea. Supplimental drinks certainly won’t hurt me. We all have different health needs that will have to be thought of and addressed. I never thought of my weight being a disadvantage in this.

23 October 2006

On the fence and leaning – at 22:29

Have the PPFs hit a plateau?

mj – at 22:38

on the fence - Plateaus can be nice places to view surroundings. Where you’ve been and where you’re going, not to mention being where you are. I think we rarely tell our PPF when we’re feeling mellow. I’m more likely then to go on Preppers High, or some other thread. However, when things heat up in the news, it gives a way to say YIKES and check in with friends and be calmed by the likes of Monotreme and TomDVM. Then it’s a case of I’m feeling stressed to the max, am I normal? I’ll just check my PPF versus my buddies on the Wikie. Oh, they’re feeling anxious too, so I’m reading the news right. Heads up and play closer attention. And go live life some more. I like the continuety of the thread. JMHO

Green Mom – at 23:32
 YEs, things “seem” to be quieting down a bit.  Ive been able to get some of my non-wiki life stress down, while also achieving a couple of Flu-wiki goals,  so my ppf is coming down.  No doubt its just the quiet before the storm, but I’m gonna enjoy while I can!

24 October 2006

Oremus – at 01:44

This article will probably kick your PPF up a notch; at least while you read it. (5 pages).

Next pandemic will break speed records

number 10 cans – at 01:52

oremus - pls check your email

Green Mom – at 08:55

I had just built myself a nice little comfort zone there, Oremus, and that article just shot it all to hell.

Is “catocide” a real word?

AVanartsat 09:03

They can take my kitty when they pry her from my cold dead fingers.

Commonground – at 09:08

This lull in the news is in my opinion, only a lull. But I am taking full advantage of it. I’m packing me house up everyday, getting more and more accomplished. My preps were the first to be packed 3 weeks ago. I’m not going to read Oremus at 01:44. I need to get into my new home and feel secure again. I’ll be in there December 10th. My PPF went up yesterday to a 6 pushing 7 with the WHO article to urgently step up production of vaccines. I’m at a 5 today again. I am urgently stepping up production of my packing.

Dennis in Colorado – at 09:17

Green Mom – at 08:55 Is “catocide” a real word?

The proper term is “felicide.” [Webster’s New Millennium Dictionary of English, Preview Edition (v 0.9.6) Copyright © 2003–2005 Lexico Publishing Group, LLC]

Ocean2 – at 10:00

Hi friends, After 3 weeks with a broken computer and a do-nothing computer store I couldn’t wait amy longer and spemd my scarce prepping euro’s on a rental computer- I need my wiki!!! I’ve missed you guys and the wise tips and insights into the evolution of this scourge.

My PPF has been at 3 for some time- I’m as prepped as 2 people in a small city appartment can be (except for a water purifier). Although I feel the urge to raise it to 20 after some of the postings above! I have to read more of the other threads before I can consider myself up-to-date but I can see it going up to 7, easily. This is the first thread I’ve felt like reading- I consider it an important thread. Bt the way, on the fence and leaning, for a while you dropped the leaning. Are you still ;eaning?

Here in the Netherlands the “deep sleep” continues- not a peep in the papers about BF. Logical is you consider that the NL is one of the top 5 chicken-producing nations, and the federal elections are just 2 weeks ahead.

Leo7 as usual your comments are so sharp! I’ll pass on your comments about the plastic cards to my man- our last-moment preps include taking money “out of the wall”. This plan needs revision!

Ocean2 – at 10:05

Actually I have to start using PF instaed of BF- its a different species!

lohrewok – at 10:13

Dang it all to hell. Just checking this thread makes my PPF want to creep up. Everytime I see this thread near the top… means somebody has SOMETHING to say about a PPF. Don’t like it at all.

KimTat 20:44

My ppf, ???, I’m prepped as much as I can be for the moment. My office refuses to do anything. I marched into the cfo’s office a couple of weeks ago gave him really great info and he looked at it and he thinks its not really a big deal.

They will not prepare in anyway, I suggested at the very least to have bottles of bleach solution…to wipe things down with, they won’t do it.

I already have my own stuff at my desk. I don’t know what I am going to do. The place is a germ factory now, if one person gets sick it spreads thru the office like a wildfire.

I’m done. I’m tired of fighting the fight for other folks. I sent the pandemic prepardness info to just about every paper in my state…nothing.

I never realized how such a large percentage of my states population is…I can’t find words to express my dissapointment in the State of Iowa.

Every day before PI is a blessing of normality that gives me time to complete plans, organize and practise.

SPAM ALERT – at 21:06
  Mine is down after talking to landlord. we are on well,have big tank, and YES, he does have a back up genny !

 I still have my water supplies, but hopefully won`t have to use them for quite awhile.

 No plans here at all, as far as I can find out. 
cactus – at 21:09
 OOPS ! sorry, didn`t change name.

 I`ll go sit in the corner , and suck my thumb,now.
cottontop – at 21:14

My PPF is still a high 3. Going to wait and see if WHO raises the alert level. If they do, my PP is go to 6. Ocean2 had a very interesting comment about elections coming up. Man, everything really is politically connected. Doing well with the anxiety. Don’t panic until something is 100% comfired, and we can confirm it here. (unless fluwikie2 decides to go down throwing me into distress!). But, really, that’s how we should look at all of this. I’m VERY proud to be apart of this forum. I’ve checked out others, and all I can say is, we have the cream of the crop!!!

26 October 2006

Dr Dave – at 20:29

I posted this on the Rumors thread, but it belongs here, too.

This afternoon I had the scariest conversation of my life. It was about the pandemic and it was with someone who has high-level insider information. Here is what happened:

Twice each week I bend the ear of whomever is sitting next to me on the airplane and I talk about the impending pandemic. Often times, the people I sit next to have some measure of infulence in their respective companies, so I press them for their e-mail addresses and I send them electronic versions of a lengthy pandemic preparation document I have written. Well, today I had the good fortune to sit next to the Director of Virology of a major medical center at a major university in the southwestern United States. Needless to say, I took advantage of this situation and we had a lively discourse.

I learned that this virologist’s hospital has been pereparing for a pandemic for several months. They anticipate a 50% infection rate and a 10% case fatality rate. They have decided that when just 1 student is diagnosed with H5N1, the university will shut down everything but its medical center. At that point in time, the staff of the medical center will be required to live on campus. They will not commute. The medical center has enough food and water and generator fuel to support 150% of their current staffing level for three straight months. The National Guard will provide security and crowd control for the medical center.

During our 4-hour flight we discussed many of the real-world scenarios that might unfold. Ultimately, this person and his hospital both understand that 3 months of supplies will not be enough, but they feel they are way ahead of the curve by having done this much.

When I mentioned to him that I feared that the post-pandemic world be like early 19th century conditions, he indicated that early 19th century was a “best-outcome” scenario. He actually fears that our future will be much worse. Although this individual balked at many of my questions, he did acknowledge that he has a stock of suicide pills for himself and his closest friends and relatives.

This, coming from an “insider”, is very disturbing. My PPF, which had been holding at a solid 9, is now just about as close to 10 as you can get.

anonymous – at 21:35

can you tell us the city this guy works in?

Goju – at 22:02

More Dr. dave… tell us more…

27 October 2006

Sailor – at 22:39

My PPF has droped back down to a 5 from an 8 since the situation in India has not developed to the extent that I feared, but that said I am still preping and consider this lull in the action God given time to prepare.

Okieman – at 22:55

I have been a 7 for months. Watchful waiting. Am now at a 7.5 while waiting for news out of Papua New Guinea sometime next week. If no flu news comes out by next friday I will drop back to my usual 7.

Wolf – at 23:23

PPF steady 7 (with a spare tire:). TomDVM, I hear ya. Nobody ever understood me “I always put on on weight in summer and lose it in the winter” Holidays? I lose weight. Once the spring thaw starts the pounds start packin’ on again - regardless of activity level. Nature’s way. Still, only range about ten lbs either way for the last 25 yrs, so I’m pretty sure it’s normal.

DennisCat 23:43

I don’t understand why so many have high PPF. From the original post a PPF means : 1 is NO WORRIES AT ALL and 10 is “MSM is going to announce within 24 hours that we need to quarantine””.

I just don’t see any move whatever that the WHO or the MSM are anywhere close to saying within 24 hours that we need to quarantine. WHO is still stuck at phase 3. The MSM doesn’t even say we should prepare.

So playing by the original rules, my PPF is quit low.

28 October 2006

Anon_451 – at 00:22

DennisC – at 23:43 I have been so busy at work my PPF is a negative 3. (What flu???) When I get a chance to check in I remember why I have so much food stocked up

Just kidding folks, but Dennis is right with out clearer signals, all our PPF’s should be quite low. Mine went up to a one over India, it has dropped back to zero.

Jumping Jack Flash – at 00:42

My sphincter hasn’t stopped twitching since reading Dr Daves post

Jumping Jack Flash – at 00:45

Anon_451. I don’t think the ppf should be based exclusively on what msm says. It should be based on all sound information resources, includiding this site.

INFOMASS – at 09:26

My own take on the PPF was that a 5 meant a 50% chance of a panflu this flu season, while an 8 meant something sooner (the next month or two) and a 3 meant a 30% chance. The “expert” medical opinion cited from a survey cited in another part of FW (from June 2006 volume of Global Public Health, “Expert judgements of pandemic influenza riks”)said a 15% chance of panflu in the next two flu seasons. However, non-medical experts surveyed put the risk higher. My own guess is a 10–20% chance this flu season. (I am not an expert.) It is very difficult to deal intellectually and emotionally with something that is somewhat unlikely but horrible if it happens. If you try to warn people and nothing happens, you are an alarmist. If something does happen, you are marked as someone likely to be prepared with food, etc. The lack of top-level leadership for things like food storage is a depressing though not unexpected abdication of responsibility. It is much more difficult to do it bottom-up.

Wolf – at 09:37

INFOMASS – at 09:26

Interesting take on PPF. I actually never thought of trying to set a timeframe, although I read the opinions avidly. My (steady) 7 has been acknowledgement of the fact that a pandemic - of some sort - will occur and occur soon enough that I need to prepare now. Being of modest means, like many here, I’ve needed to do what I could when I could, knowing I would not be able to make last minute substantial purchases.

Emotionally I run the gamut, but my pucker factor tells me just to keep on keepin’ on.

Medical Maven – at 10:03

I just maintain my steady 2 to 3, fully-prepared and resigned to the inevitability of it near to medium term. I now fine-tune my supplies and my “panflu” emotional and intellectual responses by monitoring and interacting with my fellow fluwikians. Quite a brotherhood. (And sisterhood). : )

Oh, and my PPF will immediately ascend to 10 upon confirmation. Logic can not quite contend with the expected.

diana – at 11:58

Mine has not gone over 0.5… I think its time for me to take a complete break, tuck away the preps I do have and concentrate of everything else that makes life worth living.

DennisCat 12:51

diana – at 11:58 “take a complete break”

I think you have the right idea. Family is the most important thing to most of us. One way to look at all this is that life is a gift and we need to make full use of it in whatever time we have. Not to say we should throw caution to the wind, but that we should do whatever good we can while we can.

I am here as much as I am only because I teach on line so I have FW in a separate window for the times I am waiting for files to load. For me FW is an interesting diversion.

29 October 2006

Newsie – at 18:08

Wow! I have been monitoring this site for over a year now and have just relaized how anxiety driven so many of these threads are.

Now, before you all flame away, I have a significant psychology and journalism background and my doctoral thesis was on media influence.

The ups and downs on the fluwiki as well as the public catharsis here is fascinating. There are so many of you whom I’d love to meet and chat with in greater depth.

What is even more intriguing is the swell towards the “rumor” thread when active news stories die down.

I have to say that my PPF has dropped considerably based upon my realization that many here are basing their current PPF on feelings/beliefs/senses etc than on actual, concrete, tangible reasons.

There is definitely a “hive mind” here and I have to inform those who find solace in it that just because many “think/feel, etc.” like you, doesn’t mean they or you are correct.

This may happen, this may not, but you should take care to temper your passion with reason.

: )

Newsie – at 18:14

Additionally, as a woman and a mother, I am fascinated by how many women on this site identify themselves in their handles as mothers. So far I have not seen one handle that identifies a father/dad and that is so intriguing. I’d love to establish an indepth study of wiki users and try to tease out some of what motivates us all.

Sigh, that would require a big grant and those are very tough to come by…

: )

mj – at 18:17

My PPF was extremely high in the beginning of my journey of knowledge. It has ridden the roller coaster of this site. My self analysis is that my PPF goes down most when I feel that I’m reasonably well prepped (for that day and time considering my unique situation that applies only to me - you each have your own situation) and stays down with that feeling. Realizing I don’t have x or y or z and that they are important raises my PPF. Then I save up, shop, create, find or whatever to solve the problem of x,y or z. Down it goes again. If I believe I have to/want to take care of someone else then it goes up until I collect enough for that added person. And getting someone else to Hear, Believe, and Prep brings my PPF Down. One less to worry about. I realized I have some control. My attitude counts. I can’t prep for those far away. And I will never be ready.

f-w – at 18:31

Newsie – at 18:08

Actual, concrete, tangible reasons are why I have a pucker factor at all. H5N1 exists; it is crosing the species barrier into humans; it is killing a lot of the humans it infects. Add in influenza’s tendancy to mutate in strange new ways at the drop of a hat, and that we saw in 1918 what an avian flu pandemic can do, and you’d have to be a lotus eater NOT to pucker at such a potential threat.

As for the swell towards rumors when mainstream articles dry up: Basic human nature. We want to know what’s going on, and in the absense of trustworthy reports, we’ll listen to what others are saying, especially if they can claim information gained from a knowledgable source.

^__^

Dr Dave – at 19:11

Newsie, MJ, and F-W,

This is life on the outer edge of the envelope. Flu Wikie has dedicated souls who translate articles; others attend town-hall meetings; some of us distribute paper handouts door to door. We do waht we can. I would like to think that part of what we do is altruism, although much of it is probably survivalism. Ultimately, we all want the latest information so we can make good choices.

We are all a bit jittery because our governments are not forthcoming about the state of things. That, in itself is worrysome.

Do we flock to the news? Yes, we want to see what is heading our way, if only to avoid it.

My PPF has been at 9.5 for the past few weeks because, in a sense, the flu will be here tomorrow and I will not be prepared.

Bird Guano – at 19:22

Still at a 6 and holding.

The news release out of India that they successfully deployed a Tamiflu blanket, but didn’t call it that, got my full attention.

As did the revelation (thanks again WHO-the-useless) that the Indian strain is indeed a mutated strain from Turkey, originated in China, and carried on migratory birds.

I’m watching with interest world news, and still living life.

Newsie – at 19:26

Dr. Dave how do you know our governments are not “forthcoming abou the state of things”? Is this a feeling or do you have first-hand knowledge?

There seems to be an underlying conspiracy current here, i.e. TPTB know more than they’re saying! Bush has bought a ranch in S.A. And plans to fly the coop when TSHTF! and othe such rubbish. I work with the Fed Gov on a regular basis and can tell you that most wikians are better informed than they are.

Many nights, the wiki is like that big, dangerous ball at the circus with motorcycles in it. Everyone is convinced that with all those riders whipping around inside at such insane speeds that they will surely crash and the worst will happen, yet it doesn’t.

To those who will only read the beginning of this post and then post a reply - as too often happens here, read this: I am not saying a pandemic won’t happen. What I am saying is that many anxiety levels here rise and fall based on the hive mind rather than on actual events and that bears considering. In many ways, the wiki functions as “therapy” for many.

Medical Maven – at 19:27

Newsie-The hard science of this pending situation is what has riveted my attention. We are indeed “bugs in a blog”, but there is a lot of brain power here not to be so easily dismissed.

Dr Dave – at 19:41

Newsie,

You can tell from my postings that I work for a company that provides emergency supplies to the U.S. Federal Government, the U.S. Red Cross, the U.S. military, FEMA, and others. As such, our preps are directed by the Feds. I also have an acquaintence who works in the medical profession who is being directed by the Feds. Both I and my acquaintence have been told to prepare for 3 months, but www.pandemicflu.gov only tells the general public to prepare for two weeks. From this I conclude that the government is not forthcoming.

INFOMASS – at 20:00

Newsie: I talk with Chinese officials and can assure you that the news situation from China is tightly controlled. In Indonesia, my knowledge of Bali and some other provinces would suggest that they would be reluctant to have bad publicity for tourism and investment, so denying cases if they exist would not be surprising. (This is confirmed by an ex-student working there.) In terms of the US government, I talked with a FEMA official who is prepped to the hilt with a gun and he thinks it would be useless to tell people to prep adequately. This does not mean there is a widespread coverup, but it does suggest a mindset conducive to it. Finally, there is the conflict of Dr. Nabarro and much WHO PR stuff (though it has changed lately) suggesting that they do bend their message to fit their national sponsors. None of this is conclusive, but it would be naive to think that national governments or the WHO think first in terms of global public health rather than narrower interests, including a desire to preserve credibility if nothing happens. We each have to reach our own conclusions, and certainly there is an element of group therapy on FW, but as they say: “Just because you are paranoid doesn’t mean they aren’t out to get you!” I think there is a real danger and that it would be silly not to take some measures against that possibility, though if it is really bad then almost nothing we do would be enough. No wonder people want to talk with each other.

MAinVAat 20:03

Newsie @ 19:26 and elsewhere. I respectfully disagree with your generalization that “iimany anxiety levels here rise and fall based on the hive mind rather than on actual events…“ In fact, IMO it is somewhat disrespectful of so many who have also expressed several times that they are more than capable of reading and evaluating the posts and still making up their own minds. I am one of the mods on another, totally unrelated board where Rule #1 is to not make sweeping “all of us,” and even “many here” type statements. You have an opinion and the right to express it; however each’‘ of us deserves that same right. I think for myself and do not want to be lumped together with a group — on either side of an issue! Another example, in my mind, of over-generalizing.

Another example, in my mind, of over-generalizing: The MA in my name doesn’t not represent a mother-linked title. It just happens to be my first and last initials. It is not the board name I use else where.

Bird Guano – at 20:06

My Fire Department has also been told by the county health director to personally prepare for 3 months of complete self sufficiency. NO vaccine for 8 months minimum.

My county health department’s pandemic information on the web still says a week of food and water for the civilian population and that we’ll all be saved by vaccines.

No hive mind. No BS. FACT.

We were also told to do it NOW. Not to wait, not to draw up plans or allocate budget, but to do it now, Start today (day of the presentation a month ago) each and every one of us on an individual basis for our families.

Emphasis was placed on water, food and operating without electric power and limited fuel.

I’m not calling it a conspiracy. Just a gaping disconnect.

AND also the reason I’m at a solid PPF 6, even though I’m personally prepared.

MAinVAat 20:06

Errata Note, the last sentence in the first paragraph was a duplicate of the one that began the 2nd paragraph.

Bird Guano – at 20:11

No matter.

Newsie’s comments are patronizing and offensive.

DennisCat 20:28

I was at 3 but now down to 2. Mainly because there has been no confirmed human cases since Oct 15. My “wild prediction” is that there is about a 25% chance that it will go H2H2H by Feb or March. There is nothing but guesses.

Newsie – at 20:30

BG - strictly my observations. Not meant to be patronizing. It is obvious here that those that wish to question the hive mind are often ripped to shreds, though all so far have been intelligent and polite.

DennisCat 20:36

Newsie – at 20:30 please supply a link for your claim that Bush has purchases a ranch in S.A. and plans to hide there. I saw the earlier claims about Paraguay but nothing about S.A. Such claims should be documented or placed on the rumor thread.

Newsie – at 20:44

Dennis C - I was refering to Paraguay and and misspoke.

Ma in VA - I refer only to handles with mom/mother vs. Dad/father. I actually thoughjt yours meant you were from MA and now lived in VA. : )

Goju – at 20:49

Newsie - I understand your observations. We who have become sensitized to Panflu usually have no one else to “talk” with about it. There are so many aspects to discuss and think about that it becomes obsessive at times. The consequences of a severe Panflu are so great that a tremendous amount of talk time is needed to maintain sanity. i personally use these boards as therapy… as a place to bounce ideas off other like minded individuals hence the hive mind at work. Its a miraculous thing.

There are times we get very freaked out at news… or rumors… or new ideas poster bring up.. its a natural evolution of a discussion involving many people from many viewpoints.

When hard news dries up as it did this week due to the “holiday” it frees us to explore our thoughts rather than actual events. Sometimes these explorations go off in wild directions and people react as if it is real. I have gotten many great suggestions and ideas of my own from these free wheeling discussions.

Newsie – at 20:52

Goju, thank you. That was a very enlightening post. I agree with you and it was very well said.

: )

Bird Guano – at 20:53

The language used to describe your observations is patronizing.

I wouldn’t consider you “ripped to shreds” at all here.

All viewpoints are welcome. Just be prepared to DEFEND them.

Perhaps you can address your stated observation that those of us here at FluWikie are more informed than the Feds on the pandemic issue.

That’s a startling enough statement in and of itself.

Meserole in FL – at 21:12

Newsie - I also understand your observations, and it’s not as though I haven’t wondered myself if I’m rowing with only one oar. It’s hard to justify the time, energy and expense of prepping when the whole country/world seems to be asleep at the wheel …or views preppers as wacko nutcases. There is another thread here somewhere on this subject.

Yes, there is a hive mentality of sorts on this site, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. I am not one to worry about things normally. I never prepped for Y2K; it wasn’t even on the radar for me. I also figure that if someone tosses a nuke in my general direction, I’m toast, so why bother worrying about it?

I ignored the whole bird flu pandemic subject entirely until I had a series of very scary dreams that made me sit up and take notice. (I have a long history of precognitive dreams, so I have learned not to ignore them.) Only THEN did I start searching for information on the bird flu and the possibility of a flu pandemic, and Google led me to FluWiki a few months ago. This is a great place to get an education on the subject.

I’ve done my background research, and I read what I can every day to keep abreast of new developments. My husband, who worries even less than I do about life-altering events, has also been reading the news and FluWiki, plus other sites. We have both concluded that NOT prepping would be foolish, because the odds are very good that we will experience a pandemic within the next few years. We are prepping for 3 months. If nothing happens, nothing will go to waste, so we really have nothing to lose. On the other hand, we have children and grandchildren who are in the highest risk groups. We’re not willing to gamble with their lives. So, we prep… just in case.

I really do hope that we’re wasting our time, but I fear we are not.

Welcome to FluWiki!

Newsie – at 21:14

BG - no need to shout. And I feel no need to “DEFEND” anything. My observation is that many here know more than those in the Fed Gov whom I deal with on aregular government. Relax and accept the compliment. : )

Medical Maven – at 21:16

Newsie-The social aspects of this site are window-dressing and incidental, (we are, after all, human). The serious purpose of this site as envisioned by its creators continues each and every day based on hard science, hard reports, and the real life responses of its participants and lurkers.

You have told us what you feel about us and this site. Tell us your “facts” as to why this is just an inconsequential, interesting sideshow that perversely piques your interest so much that you have hung around for a year-and-a-half.

Your words-“I am not saying a pandemic won’t happen”. But one will happen. That is a certainty. That certainty needs to be fixed in your mind. And until you do that you will be “above it all” wondering why those wild and crazy fluwikians are in such a frenzy.

mj – at 21:24

On the The Public Engagement Project on Community Control Measures Register Now thread we have Cherokee Rose telling us about attending the meeting!! She was able to put the following in Red and Bold but it didn’t copy that way (I think) but we can all super proud.

Cherokee Rose – at 21:03 Flu Wiki was given credit at the BEGINNING of the meeting - in the opening comments before ANY citizen participants said a word

Credit Goes to FLU WIKI :-)

mj – at 21:26

Cherokee Rose also let us know that: Flu Wiki ALONE was specifically named by the Keystone Center as having a critical role in Pandemic Flu education and the website info given :-).

mj – at 21:32

Because of folks here on Fluwikie, we are educated, informed, and leaders (we don’t panic, we lead, if I remember the quote). Our PPF goes up and down, but only because we have knowledge. Many thanks to you all, those that report news, attend meetings, keep us informed, keep us humored and laughing and singing. Thanks also to those that make us think by bringing up things we haven’t thought of, don’t want to think of, or disagree with. It all keeps us on top and prepared to lead and teach and survive. Thank you. Cherokee Rose let me know by her posting, that we are some of the best informed folks around.

Jumping Jack Flash – at 21:38

Newsie. 10 pandemics have occured in the last 300 years; one every 30 years, on average.It’s been 37 years since the last one. A severe pandemic occurs on average every 100 years. The last severe pandemic was 1918 - 88 years ago.

Statistically, I would venture to say a severe pandemic is much more likely to occur than my or your house burning down or either of us getting in a car wreck. I don’t know about you, but I’m not willing to risk my life savings by letting my insurance policies lapse, even momentarily. I spend all of 2k a year on this insurance. I spent maybe 1k on food/water preps (most all of it will at sometime be used).

Not preparing for BF or some other calamity is highly illogical, irrational, and irresponsible.

Newsie – at 22:09

My intention was not to offend. I was strictly making an observation on anxiety patterns based on news vs. absence of news. I know all too well that another pandemic will happen, the aggresiveness of said pandemic will not be known until after.

I do not debate the reality of a pandemic happening or the value of prepping. I am suggesting that too often we let our anxiety overrule our intellects. Keep in mind prepping is prudent, obsessing about a pending pandemic hints at more serious issues.

It is late for me here, so if I do not respond, it is because I have turned in.

Again, my posts are strictly my observations and don’t apply to everyone. If you do see yourself in them, please know my remarks were meant in general and not directed at you personally.

MAinVAat 22:33

Newsie @ 22:09 I guess it depends on what the meanings of “obcessing” and “anxiety” are, doesn’t it. It would appear that you do not “get” that your comments are judgmental, thus engender rebuttal. Because of my training in counseling, I have learned much about the wide variety of the way people express or even allow emotions in their life. We have the “Mr. Spokes” who only tolerate the facts, and any expression of feeling or emotion is seen as less than the ideal. For others, the language they speak is emotions, while congnitive reasoning follows in their wake. In other words,they feel first, come to realizations later. Each person has their own truth that lies on the spectrum between these two points. To judge any expression of emotion as bordering on pathological [which is how I read your words] is, as stated above, patronizing — at minimum.

On the fence and leaning – at 22:48

MAinVA: Are you saying you don’t believe that there are times on the wiki when anxiety gets the better of some people?

MAinVAat 23:37

I’m not saying that at all. I believe we all go through periods of that and it not a sign of something wrong or that we must ignore our feelings and focus exclusively on the “facts”. The term for fear reaction has left me, however we have had a thread on it. That is normal and not what I take from Newsie’s posts. There is a black and white, all or nothing sense — either one operates from the facts OR one is reacting [wrongly] out of emotion. And yes, I agree that may be a generalization. Frankly I was born never believing what I read in the newspapers, so if that were where we are to get “the truth,” in my mind heaven help us. Doesn’t mean I don’t read the news, because I do. I just do not trust it simply because it is written down or broadcast by the media. And I have too many years of training and experience in seeing how valuable personal feelings are in giving us information to throw them out completely. Will be have over reactions at times, yes; but I would rather have that than ignore or label what some might term negative reactions as obcesssive.

30 October 2006

need advice on freezing – at 00:43

Newsie: several posts

I see your point and FW does have interesting dynamics among a collective group. I think a “study” would be very interesting.

need advice on freezing – at 00:46

PS…

SA=South America, Paraguay is a country in South America.

Bush buying ranch is SA is correct statement.

Olymom – at 01:08

The comment “The ups and downs on the fluwiki as well as the public catharsis here is fascinating” does rather make me feel like a specimen being observed and cataloged.

I have a variety of “handles” and used a “mom” one here because it was my concerns for my family that brought me to fluwiki. I use a dog based handle on ebay because my first searches there were for dog agility equipment — so, I would wonder if all the “moms” here might simply be people who had family relations in mind when beginning here. I certainly can pictue Mom11 as “Ultracanner” on a cooking site.

My PPF was actually dropping a bit until I was invited to sit in on a county planning meeting. Nothing like hearing an official list your neighborhood school as a potential clinic/hospital site to make the “glulck” moment happen. I’m a solid 8.0 and will be until Memorial Day 2009

Okieman – at 07:23

Folks, a quick comment if you will.

Newsie has made some observations that have some truth in my opinion. While taken as patronizing by some due to the wording, there is still some truth within his/her statements.

Here on the fluwiki we are willing to express what our feelings are about a pandemic occuring because we find the fluwiki as a safe place to express them. We are on the internet and incognito so we are a bit more free with our thoughts and fears. Does anxiety drive some of the discussion? Sure. Hey, its panflu we are talking about. Nothing unusual is going on here, very normal I think.

We are influenced by the hive mind because we have come to believe there is a significant number of highly intelligent people that participate in the fluwiki forum, and when the general concensus is that things are looking bad we tend to ratchet up our own level of concern. Also normal. Part of the reason I started reading and participating in the fluwiki forum was because of the intelligent and thoughtful discussion. Now, just because someone is intelligent and thoughtful does not mean I am going to believe everything they say, but it does mean I will give some degree of weight to their thoughts. When the fluwiki starts leaning in one direction I take notice, but I make up my own mind based upon the given evidences. In my opinion, this is what we all are doing to one degree or another, but we are still swayed by the general direction of the hive mind concerning impending danger. Normal human behaviour.

Newsie, please continue posting. We need diverse thoughts and opinions on the fluwiki forum. This provides balance within the hive mind and helps us all approach the problem of pandemic flu with an attitude of watchfulness tempered with pragmatic questioning.

Ruth – at 07:39

Tamiflu helped avert outbreak of bird flu….After reading this article (in the Oct. 29th news thread… (http://tinyurl.com/y4rsxk), I had some major concerns about avian flu. It seemed to me, that there was a huge concern about h2h2h2, but they were able to stop it. Does that mean there is a mutation that has givin the virus that abilitiy? Has it passed? Does it need to find the combination again, or is it still lurking out there? I know that the anwswers are we don’t know, but this article made me a bit nervous. I decided that we are far from breathing a sigh of relief, even though it has been quiet for a few days. Your thoughts….

Commonground – at 08:53

Ruth - to tell you the absolute truth, I am confused. We have different strains now. India, China, Indonesia. I believe the strains are different, so I can’t even figure out if the Tamiflu in India that stopped h2h2h in early 2006 is the same strain in Indonesia right now.

Tom DVM – at 09:56

Ruth. I also found the article interesting. I think we dodged a significant bullet with the mutation that produced this unique strain of H5N1. If the same strains that caused Turkey and Indonesia and Vietnam had entered India, there would have probably been many human cases. With a population as large as China’s, India and neighbouring countries would have to be considered of equal likelyhood to be the source of the next pandemic.However, they may not have the same level of industrialized agriculture that have precipitated much of this…

…anyway, I believe this specific mutation decreased transmissibility rather than increasing it…and therefore, no human cases in this area. There have also been some changes in bird populations as well that would also indicate fine changes in viral genomes.

This doesn’t mean anything for the longterm picture…except we know the virus seems mutable and adaptable…it is not stable but is moving in many different directions all of the time…

…My conclusion is that it is only a matter of time until it hits the right combination and I honestly think every expert and regulator around the world is of the same opinion. They certainly have been quiet…no news is definitely not good news at this point.

Tom DVM – at 09:59

Sorry, I meant to say that the Tamiflu part of the article was pure speculation and in my opinion ‘baloney’. I nice piece of Public Relations for the pharmaceutical company…expect it to be referenced many times in the next two years as evidence mounts that antivirals will not be effective at all in a pandemic beyond the first few weeks.

Commonground – at 10:34

Thanks Tom DVM - that helped me sort this out.

DennisCat 10:36

need advice on freezing – at 00:46

normally S.A. stands for South Africa in most of the reports I see. Notice also that the Bush that claimed by the rummors to be buying the ranch is Jenna Bush and not a “George” and it appears to be part of her UNICEF work and the possible establishment of an “ecological reserve”

http://tinyurl.com/yyjgcv

and the local governer calls it a rumor: “the governor said he had no documents to prove the rumor”

“A spark of the interest in this property may have been Jenna Bush’s private visit to Paraguay with Unicef, which started Saturday, October 7, 2006. Supposedly Jenna will travel to the ranch to observe- several indigenous villages are located on the property.” Unless documents surface, I suggest considering this just a rumor.

http://tinyurl.com/y83mkq

Commonground – at 10:48

Very good DennisC !!

Closed and Continued - Bronco Bill – at 11:02

Long thread closed and continued here

diana – at 11:11

Newsie. There have been occassional posters who come and go who have taken the avian flu as just the newest of their chronic anxieties and fears. The other posters here have generally tried to moderate and calm them down. As far as jumping on you, I assure you, the fluwiki group , seems to me, as having the most civil of posters and is the most considerate of others . Some blogs have posters who seem to disembowel other posters as a sport. I call them snapping turtles. They have intelligent posters, but snippy attitudes. That has never characterized this group. Once in a while there are tensions and lively disagreements. I have always been very low on the fear factor in Avian flu, but I do believe it is sensible to prep, and just as sensible to keep an eye on this. Those who take the time to moniter this in depth are doing a public service. The entire concept of the fluwiki is keeping people informed and giving them the knowledge to prep intelligently.The Fluwiki and the posters have my complete respect. There are other sites, others just as into prepping and keeping track. Each has its own flavor. Perhaps you should look into them and analyse them as well.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Dr Woodson Book Says We Will All Be Eposed to It

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Dr Woodson Book Says We Will All Be Eposed to It

22 October 2006

NJ Jeeper – at 13:33

I am reading Dr Woodosn’s book and it is excellent so far. He says we will all be exposed to it and 40% will get sick, 40% will have minor or no syptoms, and 20% no effect at all even thouhg exposed. If we will not be able to avoid exposure either before or after the flu, then by prepping aren’t we just delaying the inevitable. I guess the bright side is that if we somehow stay virus free, then on the other side of it, we can get a vaccine.

Comments please on the theory of prepping or just getting it over. He discusses masks, hand washing etc, but if we have a sick person in our house we will be exposed no matter what.

Dr W. are you prepping and is so why, if you are going to get it anyway. I have not finsihed the book, so maybe he answers these questions later on.

Betty – at 13:40
Betty – at 13:43

I think we want to prep because of stores closing, etc. You will still need to eat, drink, etc. while it is going around…whether or not you have it or someone in your family. Not only will persons who work at stores, gas stations, etc., get sick and stay home, but remeber the caos during Katrina. People were stealing, hurting others and all kinds of scary stuff. I would rather have enough supplies if it comes to that, rather than to go out in that kind of caos.

JWB – at 13:56

I always fear JIT collapse than Panflu itself.

Average Concerned Mom – at 14:04

NJ Jeeper — my thoughts on “prepping” are:

2 weeks of easy food for you and your family in case of illness (mom down with the flu, kids can bring you soup, eat cereal)

2 more weeks of food and supplies so you can stay home in case you are quarantined and don’t like the fod you are brought by the authorities (if they have a plan for that, and can actually do it.)

2 to 4 more weeks of food and supplies so you can Just Stay Home in the event it is a severe pandemic and you just don’t want to risk going out anywhere.

(that’s 6 to 8 weeks total in your pantry right there.)

After that — your prepping more for collapse, or to have some to share with others— road blocks, no gas; food shortages, a hurricane/blizzard during the pandemic, peak oil, whatever!

Ruth – at 14:07

I agree with betty, most of us will not die if there is a pandemic, but we have to eat. I am prepping, not to SIP, but be able to maintain as normal a lifestyle (within my home) as possible. I don’t want to run out of TP if I don’t have to.

Blue – at 14:14
 How will we be exposed to it if we SIP fully?
Dr Dave – at 16:22

NJ Jeeper and Blue,

I think that Woodson’s projections apply to the general population, but not necessarily to preppers. In my opinion, to shelter in place is only way to prevent contact with those who may be sick with the flu. Those who are not prepared to SIP will eventually be driven from their homes by hunger, medicine, or toiletries. Then, they will be exposed.

SIP is not a guarantee of survival, but failure to SIP is a guarantee of exposure. How much prep is enough? I am planning for off and on SIP for about 2 years.

That’s Just Ducky! – at 16:32

Average Concerned Mom – at 14:04

I would not count on the authorities bringing food to neighborhoods, let alone door to door, especially early on in the pandemic. Food may be distributed in some urban/suburban areas at least, but in a worst-case scenario, I sure wouldn’t count on it.

Dr Dave – at 16:40

That’s Just Ducky,

How long did it take to supply Aquafina and MREs to the Superdome in New Orleans? Did it ever happen?

Do not count on the government to distribute food and water anywhere.

Green Mom – at 16:48

ACM- Thats how I prepped-2 weeks “flu food” for each member-broths, gateraids, clear liquids for each member, then two weeks easy food for kids to cook if I get sick, then about a month of frozen meals in the freezer, then I just keep adding dry/canned goods.

I’m really prepping more in view of distrubution breakdown rather than avoiding the flu. Also, I just want to avoid the chaos. Its kind of like when we have really bad weather and the weather people advise everyone to stay off the roads and you allways have some idiot that thinks he’s magically immune to icy roads and off the road he goes, then everyone has to go out and rescue him. And I know sometimes people have to go out-my daughter decided she wanted to be born RIGHT NOW NO WAITING in the middle of a pretty good snow storm, but somehow it seems like its the idiot going out in the storm for beer and lottery tickets that has to get rescued.

It seems to me that if people who can would just prep for as long as they can and just stay home, safe and sound out of the way, it would just make things easier for those who are trying to maintain the grid or get supply lines flowing or whatever.

Seabreeze – at 16:57

It would really suck to catch the flu and survive it and then die of hunger or thirst because you can’t get supplies. Don’t forget, the recovery time for this flu is months. It’s not like it will be 2 weeks and then you could go out hunting or something.

Olymom – at 17:24

In Micronesia, pregnant ladies are often brought to the hospital if a typhoon is approaching. There is a high correlation between big storms and births (makes sense biologically — a time when no predators are out).

I once was that idiot on the icy roads. Had little kids at home — knew there was a storm coming but was “busy” — then “out” of everything (including lice shampoo which was suddenly an important item — the kids just erupted in crawlies) so off I go, sliding through stop signs, praying like mad. Got grocercies, got home, started delousing. I remember being too tired to cry (DH was gone that week). That experience left permanent mental scars. Never again! We may not eat elegantly, but there is enough in the pantry so that we can wait out a “storm” be it weather or other events. That’s why I prep. I want to choose when we venture out.

Average Concerned Mom – at 17:29

I’m sure not counting on anyone in MY county bringin’ food by!

I was just kidding.

I remember someone posting something in the NY thread about being told to stockpile at least 2 weeks worth of food and after that, if people needed food, it would be “delivered to them”. Well even if it would be — and I highly doubt it — just the thought of what someone might bring me would be enough to get me prepping. Unless I’m staring I am VERY particular about what I eat! (-:

crfullmoon – at 17:38

And the plans on paper say, it is local authorities’ responsibility to meet their people’s needs; not fed nor state.

Plans go on to suggest, all the nice “stakeholders” (who do not know who they are, have not seen the govt to-do lists with their groups on them, and have not been meeting with local “emergency” -Sh!- planning committees, and don’t know they are assumed to be the agencies that will help), with their unprepared volunteers, and with yet-unbought stockpiles, will be called on to help meet the needs of those unprepared “homebound by illness or quarantine.”

(How these helpers are expected not to get a contagious pandemic when medical care for same will be overwhelmed is left as an pandemic-period excercise for the participant.)

Green Mom – at 18:43

Olymom- a mom going out to buy groceries and lice shampoo for her little kids is, in my book, a totally different thing than a beer and Lotto run. I’ve been out, too when I should have been in and like you I learned a valuable lesson!

My dh and a buddy volunteered to help county road crew after a ice storm and stopped to help a guy who went off the road. Making conversation while he got his chains out of the back of his truck, dh asked the guy, why in the world he was out on such bad road-half inch black ice. the guy said he ‘d just bought a new Blazer and he thought it would be fun. That didn’t sit too well, but then the guy went on to say it was a good thing these guys stopped other wise he’d have to pay for a tow truck! These guys would get him out for free! Dh wanted to just toss the chains in the back of the truck and leave him there but somehow dh’s friend was related to this guys wife, and he’d catch all kinds of hell if he left her husband stranded. So they spent considerable time and energy getting this jerk out of the ditch

And I know a guy who just minents after a tornado went through, and all the Emergency Personal were on tv/radio pleading with people to stay in there homes, off the roads, got in his car, driving around gawking at all the damage. Did he stop to help anyone? NO. He was just out there getting in peoples way. He did manage to get on tv though.

Furthermore-Dh and I and two toddlers were trapped in our house during a freak snowstorm. It took the National Guard FOUR days to get to us-and the place we lived then wasn’t nearly as isolated as it is now. We didn’t have power for two weeks. If friends/relatives give me a hard time about prepping I look ‘em in the eye and say “Two Toddlers, two weeks”

I’m just saying that it will be a very chaotic time. I don’t want to do anything to hamper the efforts of those folks who are doing their best to get things back on track, and on a more selfish note, I don’t want to be caught out in all the panicky chaos-I prefer to stay in and panic in the comfort of my own home!:-)

I don’t have toddlers anymore-now I have two teens-I wonder which is worse? ;-)

NJ Jeeper – at 19:30

Thanks for the comments. I will continue to top off my preps and try to stay away from the chaos when it happens. But if he is right and we all get it in one form or another, then SIP may not be the answer. I am wrestling with SIP vs the reality of going to work and trying to stay away from co-workers.

Anyway no change in my plans, but I am not adjusting to giving in to getting it. Wouldn’t it be something to SIP and miss the first wave and get knocked down by the 2nd or 2rd wave which could be worse than the first.

23 October 2006

Bird Guano – at 00:04

Forget SIP.

If the CFR stays high, the only solution will be what Osterholm has done.

Plan for protective sequestration.

Once you are in and the door is locked, no leaving until you have a rational assurance that it’s “all clear”, and then only long enough to resupply for the 2nd wave.

I don’t plan on doing the latter (which may be the worst wave), and it’s why I have 18 months of full PS preps, working on 24 months to ride out several waves.

Yes, I probably forgot SOMETHING. But if the CFR remains high, it won’t be worth risking my life over.

YMMV

The Doctor – at 00:23

It is my opinion that no one will be able to avoid exposure even when SIP. During the Spanish Flu, virtually every home had at least one sick person. Even if you were able to control yourself for 18-months, do you really think you can control your family? What about your friends? Are you going to refuse to let your daughter back in the house after she was caught visiting her boyfriend late one night? SIP will not be 100% effective for most small groups. The larger the number of people in your group, the less likely that it will succeed. It simply is counter to human nature.

Even though I think SIP is a failed strategy, I still support preparing vigorously for the pandemic. The medical preparation is clearly wise so you can take care of sick family members when access to conventional care is lacking. Preparing to compensate for a breakdown in the economic and social infrastructure is wise because the unprepared will be cast into an 18 month long horror that will extract a price worse than death from not a few. Preparation is not just about living though the long emergency, it is also about living safely and as well as possible through a chaotic time.

By preparing for this risk, we are improving our chances for our families to survive it intact. In one piece both physically and psychologically. Preparing does not guarantee that this will be the outcome, but it is a rational response to the risk of pandemic influenza and one that we can manage on our own. I do not advocate trying the negotiate the pandemic alone or as a nuclear family. There are a lot of reasons to support the notion of gathering together in small tribes, clans, or whatever name you want to call the Pandemic Survivors Group. Being a member of a group like this is one of the best ways to improve your family’s chances of survival as well as the chances of all other members of the PSG. I have written extensively on this in the Bird Flu Manual.

In my view, preparing for the pandemic does not mean avoiding the flu. I don’t think that is going to be easy or very likely. Preparing now is a rational act because it will give you, your family, and group the best chance of surviving the flu and the societal chaos that is pretty likely to accompany a severe pandemic.

And for the record, yes I am fully prepared for the pandemic or at least as prepared as a de facto WHO Pandemic Phase 4 condition requires. I have also been stocking medications and medical supplies for use by my PSG’s Neighborhood Health Network when the time comes for that to be activated. I have installed solar collectors on the roof and have reinsulated my house. There is 3-months+ food stockpiled in my basement for my family and I have one of the most impressive selection of LED lanterns and NiMH rechargeable battery collections in Decatur, GA.

There is a big difference in simply surviving the disease and the pandemic and doing so well and intact. Those who prep well have a better chance of surviving well.

Grattan Woodson, MD

Gary Near Death Valley – at 01:02

The Doctor - 0023 “SIP will not be 100% effective for most small groups. The larger the number of people in your group, the less likely that it will succeed. It simply is counter to human nature.” I totally agree with you on your statement concerning SIP. There are though, some of us down in the desert country, that have no family, just my wife and myself, and we would be able at this time to stay at least 2 years SIP. The worst part for us though, would be getting telephone calls, detailing about what is happening to family about 900 miles away, grand children and children. That for us is our worst nightmare, and one we hope never comes. Just in case if someone did happen to make the 900 mile journey, we have a seperate building, with heat, etc, that we already told our relatives, if they come after the pandemic begins, that they will be isolated there without coming into the house and no phyical contact etc for 2 weeks. Would be hard but we could do that also.

Green Mom – at 10:15

What drew me to the Fluwiki, initially, was not so much the flu (surprise, surprise) but the self reliance tips- the gardening, food preservation etc. Dh and I are doing all we can to be as self sufficent as possible. We give the “Two Toddlers, Two weeks” reason but its something that goes deeper than that.

I agree here with Doctor Woodson-isolation is counter to human nature. We will take precautions-of course. We’ll wash our hands, avoid crowds, kids and I will SIP etc etc, but I still fully expect that one or all of us will come down with this flu. The first flu preps I did was not the beans and rice, but the oral rehydration packets and OTC meds.

The day after tomorrow – at 12:29

I would like to referr you to a study done by U of M Medical School on Provisional Escape Communities.

http://tinyurl.com/hu264

In it they studied seven communities whom had few if any flu cases during the 1918 flu pandemic. They fould that the communities that had fared the best had practiced strict isolation within the community and quarentines when necessary.

So for one reason or another isolation has been effective in the past.

I do agree with the Doctor. We will not be able to escape it. I like the othere on this site am preparing for social disruption. Once it’s here it will be here. It is not just going to disappear. I am hoping that it will lose virulence over time.

I still believe that those left after it’s all said and done will be those who have gained immunity to the virus. Either by surviving it or by being exposed to a weakend virus and unknowingly gaining immunity. Perhaps during the summer when immune systems are strong and viruses are weak. And eventually they will have a vaccine be it in time for the third wave will remain to be seen.

Jewel – at 13:18

The Doctor; Green Mom at 10:15; and The day after tomorrow at 12:29

Words of wisdom that I agree with. The only way to totally avoid this flu is strict isolation from the time the very first case appears in the USA to the very last case. Impossible from my point of view. We need to use common sense about avoiding crowds, proper and frequent handwashing, etc. etc., pray, and hope for the best! I too am adding things like Depends, bedpans, meds, oral hydration products, broths, etc. to my preps because I don’t think we will be able to avoid infection despite SIP.

De jure – at 20:02

I agree with almost everything The Doctor says with one exception. I’m not quite sure how wise it is to form a Pandemic Survival Group outside of my family. Exposure to the virus is one of my main areas of concern. We don’t really know that the CFR will approximate that of the 1918 pandemic. We may have something much, much higher. And I’m not quite sure that being exposed to the first wave will provide immunity to the second wave. Perhaps it will. Perhaps it won’t.

And I’m not really big on the idea of someone claiming “their fair share” of my preps under the guise that they’re “the leader” of the group, doing it on behalf of the community, etc. etc. In fact, I could see some pretty severe acts of desperation emerging when it begins to dawn on some people that the cavalry ain’t comin’ (and who would blame them? But then again, they weren’t really paying attention to the problem like we have been from the beginning, have they?)

I think the community esprit de corps was much higher several decades ago. I’m afraid that “every man for himself” is the motto du jour. And finally, I’d hate to guess wrong. There’s really no backup when you guess wrong in a critical situation such as we’re discussing (and there will be no extra credit that your children can collect because their parents “did the right thing”). No, I hate to seem selfish, but the thought of my children being orphaned at such tender ages really, really would make me stop and think about neighborhood hero anythings due to potential lethal exposure from H5N1.

The Doctor – at 23:27

The comments on this thread give me pause. I see that many of you think you would be better off by isolating yourself. Some think that by SIP you will be able to avoid the flu. Others seem to be considering reverse quarantine especially after the University of Michigan study was released. In my view, these are poor options. Sheltering in place is a public health measure designed to slow the spread of the virus through the community rather than prevent it. It is not possible to prevent it. It is not possible to control or direct it. The U of M study is interesting but not practical to implement today. There are no isolated places today. Implementation of a reverse quarantine is not practicable. People will sneak out and then sneak back in. Others will smuggle in relatives caught on the other side of the wire. Humans are a curious lot and many will be dying to see what’s going on in the next town of city. It will be very unlikely that the 100% discipline required for such a strategy to work can be maintained.

Below is an edited excerpt from The Bird Flu Manual on this issue. Specifically, it addresses why I recommend the formation of Pandemic Survivor Groups rather than prolonged SIP or heading to the wilderness to live in isolation for 2 years.

Grattan Woodson, MD


Excerpted from The Bird Flu Manual

Remaining within any settled area of the planet will mean being exposed to the pandemic influenza strain once it emerges. In my opinion, during the 18-month pandemic period, this will happen no matter what counter measures are employed. Living through a severe pandemic will require us to cope with the gravest medical and social consequences with virtually no outside help. Trying to sustain one’s self and family in isolation under these circumstances will be a difficult task if not impossible.

It is likely that most people will be forced to provide medical care for their sick family members including some who are critically ill, within the home. This would be difficult under normal circumstances and considerably more complex in the event there is a breakdown in the civil and commercial order. For this reason, I have concluded that the most logical choice is to organize your family, friends and neighbors into a mutually supportive Pandemic Survivor Group.

Being a member of a disciplined, well-supplied and organized PSG whose members are committed to the survival of all the other members would provide considerable protection and comfort to a family that was a member. I do not plan to SIP or advocate this practice. It is not normal and if you isolate yourself from those around you, how can you help them if they need you. Being a member of a group that has members who interact to some degree with the outside world means the flu will eventually get in. When it happens, a well schooled and prepared PSG has a very good chance of managing the illness well. This is a rational and reliable approach because its success relies upon you, your family, and friends to make it work.

People gathering for mutual support and protection are nothing new. While it is likely that groups such as this will form wherever humans live, forming a group consciously with preparation and planning will provide the members of a PSG significant survival advantages over those who assemble haphazardly.

I can’t imagine anything more important than having friends and neighbors to rely upon during a long emergency like this one. Being able to depend upon those around you for help will be a tremendous asset for every member of the PSG. A stable, prepared community lessens the likelihood that you or your family will experience problems during the pandemic. Your participation also improves the likelihood of survival for the others in your group.

The mutual aspect does require giving up some autonomy to the group. All groups will need to have a leader and this person will need to be empowered to make decisions that affect members of the PSG differently or in some cases disproportionately. The point of the PSG is the survival of each and every member. Sacrifice will be required and some may be asked to share food or other valuable commodities with others.

Generosity, tolerance, forgiveness, and patience are key survival virtues for PSGs to cultivate. Groups characterized by narcissism, paranoia, rigidity, greed, isolation, and envy will predictably self-destruct. Of course, each group’s structure and form will vary according to its circumstances, a natural and healthy evolution. The groups with the best chance of survival will be those that work cooperatively to enhance the chances of survival of all their members. Sharing, sacrifice, hard work, and devotion to this goal will characterize successful groups.

A PSG of a sufficient size will be able to provide safety for its members by fielding an appropriately equipped and led emergency squad. If law enforcement becomes compromised in your group’s area, you must consider and prepare for the possibility that you could become the target of looters or others seeking to take advantage of the situation. Opportunists and criminals could join together in impromptu gangs in search of food, valuables, guns, and involuntary female companions. Criminals will not hesitate to exploit the vulnerable and those already weakened by illness. History is replete with accounts of raiders taking advantage of just such situations. In my view, having an armed emergency squad to control access to your PSG’s community and patrol its geographic area would be a significant deterrent to attack from the outside. In the event that your PSG was attacked, having it defended by a properly organized, armed and coordinated emergency squad would be a formidable defense force.

A family in isolation would be easy pickings for even a small band of outlaws. Those families will not be secure in the knowledge that if both parents became sick at the same time, there were several other people close by who would come to their aid and care for the children until they were able to resume this responsibility. While a family in isolation can put up a pretty good defense if it has access to the proper equipment and training, this would be a chilling prospect for most of us. There is great comfort in numbers. Humans are gregarious by nature. The thought of SIP in the wild for 2 years away from our loved ones and friends’ strikes me as a very psychologically and painful measure.

Gary Near Death Valley – at 23:49

BIG TIME Side scroll going on,,,,,,,can a moderator repair,,,thank you

24 October 2006

senegal1 – at 00:30

Hear hear! for Dr. Woodson at 23:27

Gary Near Death Valley – at 00:42

The Doctor – at 23:27 I reckon that my wife and I will be a big test case. No children around within 900 miles, or grandchildren, supplies to last at least 2 years plus, a chain link fence around the property (along with the neighbors that have 6 foot chain link fence also), a water supply from a hand pump from a well…….and just in case is someone does want in,,,a seperatre building. Oh did I mention that the wife already had ask to have graves dug just in case also. Have a tractor with scoop so done that. Actually do not anticipate anyone coming in,,,but I do agree with you in your statements but there is only me and her. I was in the fire service for 26 years, IV tech on the rescue, etc,,,,,and into prepping for a very long time, as taught by parents that went thru the depression. Do not expect “outlaws” out here, as when a home invasion even now happens, the person is usally shot and most all the homes in this part of the desert have firearms. But we have stored provisions, just in case, for neighbors that need help. Fortuneately alot of the neighbors are also into prepping, storing, emergency situations etc. I realize that out here, we are very lucky. Get my stress test tomorrow in Las Vegas so that will be out of the way.

jplanner – at 03:45

Doctor W.

I live in a NE city, in a mod-low income area. People move in and out, everyone rents, one does not know ones neighbors over time, they move away. Have no family. Have many dear friends who WILL NOT prep despite much effort. I cannot afford to prep for them except for some very basic items. They (rather other adult memebers of their families)do not have the mindset or personal qualities that would make it safe to be in aliance with them.

 I am prepped, but literally have no place to go but stay here alone. I learned over my year on fluwikie that that was not optimal, especially being in city security wise.

Now I am hearing even MORE about how my situation is completely untenable. I am not prepped like GARY because I do not own land or buildings, can’t store fuel (no safe outdoor space, no yard, wooden porch), and of course NO OTHER PERSON. I can’t get seriously sick obviously with no one to care for me (again staying with friend due to her crazy husband who would behave dangerously)will be worse.

So, I would like peoples advice,particularly from Dr.. Woodson. I am sure there are others out there who do not live in close knit communities or have family. What do we DO??

jplanner – at 03:49

don’t mean to sound like I have an attitude. I just keep hearing about how you need to gather your friends family neighbors around and I cannot do this., No one I am close to will prep at all.

I ordered the book, just don’ think I can …don’t see a way HOW I can, follow thru on the MAIN recommendation that might save my life. I am kind of worried.

FLA_MEDIC – at 04:50

While it’s been slow in coming, I think more and more of us are realizing that Dr. Woodson is right about the futility of avoiding exposure to the virus for 12 to 18 months. Not that it isn’t possible, but the odds are badly against it.

Few of us could create and maintain a bio-secure environment capable of sustaining us for a year or longer, and there will always be unexpected events, which will lead to a breaking of security.

Although many will find this idea disconcerting, I personally find it liberating. It means that I don’t have to consider living in lockdown, like a prisoner in my own home for a year or longer. Just as importantly, it means I can help my neighbors, and neighborhood, because I’m going to be exposed one way or another.

The WHO’s announcement yesterday, that it will take 3 to 5 years to come up with enough vaccine, further demonstrates the futility of trying to isolate. The H5N1 virus will likely become a component of seasonal flu, long after the pandemic passes, just as H1N1 did after the Spanish Flu. Eventually even the most hardcore isolationist will have to come out, and when they do, the virus will still be around, and they won’t have immunity.

Some things simply aren’t doable. And avoiding exposure is one of them.

Prepping, of course, still makes sense. As does limiting exposure where you can. There are unanswered questions about viral load, and what it really takes to become infected. The use of masks, gloves, and hand washing still make sense.

Having 3 to 6 months worth of supplies on hand, LED lighting, medicines, solar panels or a generator, and other assets will allow us the latitude to decide when and where we expose ourselves. It means we won’t have to stand in line for 6 hours a day for a loaf of bread along with hundreds of potentially infected people. And it means we can use our time to help our neighborhoods, instead.

For every complex problem there is a simple and elegant solution. And it is invariably wrong.

I think trying to avoid exposure at all costs falls under that category. JMHO.

LauraBat 06:36

As I am currently nursing a sore throat and bad cough, I am in full agreement. I have become much more cautious and dilligent about handwashing, etc. since I strated prepping several months ago. Yet, here I am, miserable. I have no idea where I got it - no one in my family is ill. SIP will greatly reduce one’s risk, but not reduce it to zero. If this stretches out to months on end, it will be impossible to avoid going out for supplies, etc. Few of us are like Gary - complete isolation is not an option. The best I can do is prep the best I can, try and get others around me to prep (which, btw is not working :(), and take it from there.

De jure – at 07:27

FLA_MEDIC at 4:50: “The WHO’s announcement yesterday, that it will take 3 to 5 years to come up with enough vaccine, further demonstrates the futility of trying to isolate.”

Well, I don’t mean to sound cold, but I don’t think we’d have to worry about as large a number to vaccinate after the pandemic is in full swing.

People seem to be forgetting about certain cities that either escaped or had a “light” case of H1N1 during 1918 (St. Louis, certain cities in northern Colorado, etc.). Many of these folks escaped partly due to the fact that they remained in quarantine. Along those lines, when some sick family was in need of food, they would fly a white flag in front of their house, and neighbors would leave food on their doorstep. The sick families would do that so as not to infect their neighbors, I’m assuming. And as I’ve said before on numerous occasions, I would do the same for my neighbors. But that is not the same as ringing their doorbell and giving them a great, big hug.

Sorry, but I think some folks are looking at solving this like they did on Gilligan’s Island. Put me down as someone who just wouldn’t trust the Skipper and his Little Buddy.

NJ Jeeper – at 08:11
 I also would not submit my family and our preps to a community leader.  That will not happen.

I still have not come to terms with the SIP problem. I could not do it either for 1–2 years, but could do it for 8 weeks or until the first wave is over. But then would be unemployed.

Then what? If we are going to be exposed anyway no matter what we do, and it is useless to SIP, then why attempt it.

I agree on prepping to be sure we have meds and ability to feed and take care of our family and avoid the chaos.

Didn’t I read that many in the 1918 flu were isolated and did not get it?

Really confused on this. Why bother SIP or even buy masks? Just go to the airport and stand there and get it over? Then hope you live thru it or even lucky enough to have the natural immunity 40% will have. I am not defeatest or depressed about it, just trying to determine the best course of action.

Cold in Colorado – at 09:36

I think it absolutely makes sense to prep but also agree that it is most likely futile to avoid exposure. I hope to be able to have some control over when I get it. For example if my wife who is a physician gets it I will start taking tamiflu and wear masks, gloves, etc while caring for her in hopes that she is recovered and able to take care of me and our kids by the time I get sick.

I strongly disagree with the idea of quarantining family members that come for help. Although it does sound like a good way to prevent personal exposure I would never do it. Lets assume that they were exposed on their journey to your house and are now sick. Can you imagine the guilt you would feel if a loved one did develop AI while in your quarantine area and died of something like dehydration. Many AI deaths will be preventable by the kind of treatment Dr. Woodson describes in detail in his book. I would rather risk exposure my self and accept the small chance of my dying than know I probably could have saved a friend or family member but did not.

It seems to me that if you get a severe case of AI and have no one to help care for you your chance of dying is much higher than if you have friends and family too help you while you are sick. I want to take care of my friends and family the best I can so they will be there for me and or my kids when I am sick. I think helping each other is the best way for most of us to survive.

Tom DVM – at 09:45

“Then hope you live thru it or even lucky enough to have the natural immunity 40% will have.”

NJ Jeeper. The danger with a pandemic virus is that no immune system in the world, has encountered it before…

…In the case of many viral diseases (smallpox), between 5–15% of populations will avoid infection…this statistic holds in animal models (distemper) as well.

The thing about H1N1 is that the pandemic of 1918 has really, in a sense, continued for a century…it is still dominating influenza today…

…Therefore, in the initial pandemic, there may be a 65% infection rate but the other 35% will eventually get it in the after-shocks that will cause localized epidemics for years or decades after the initial pandemic.

The strategy of getting sick early can backfire on you…the longer you can hold off getting infected, in general, the less virulent the virus will become…so all reasonable attempts to avoid infection are well worth it.

crfullmoon – at 09:59

For some, our “friends and family” will not go look into it and prep

-there’s some nice spin out there to believe instead

(from people in positions of authority who have decided my fellow citizens and taxpayers and friends and family are acceptable losses compared to alarming the economy/governed early)

that says, they don’t have to do anything much (during a pre-pandemic alert period).

I cannot prep for everyone; so far, they won’t be there for me and mine, and chancing dying is not acceptable, so, I am on my own .

Going out to just “get it over” with, given the current unprepared community, and, high fatality rate -even higher with no critical care and meds, is not a viable option, for some of us.

beehiver – at 11:10

FLA MEDIC at 4:50 mentioned viral load. While there always will be unanswered questions about viral replication rate because they can mutate/reassort/or recombine as time passes, it stands to reason that any effort to limit viral load exposure would be of benefit to people. Especially as Tom DVM mentioned, early in a pandemic. Being exposed to virus need not necessarily be an all-or-nothing situation. A small exposure, especially later in a pandemic, might limit the extent of the illness, and yet allow creation of antibodies for some future protection. I believe there are many things we can do to tip the balance in our favor!

NP1 – at 11:45

If the local PTB decide that by having people stay home as much as possible the social and viral situation would be improved, they you had better be prepared to stay home! In some area going out may get you arrested. Like I tell the classes that I teach on panflu, you cannot stay home unless you have the resources to do so.

I would put my son , who would be coming up from Phoenix,in quarantine. If he gets sick I put on gown, mask and gloves and care for him, like I would any patient. He would not die from dehydration or lack of care. If I ran out of supplies I would still care for him, but I would not expose other menbers of my family.

This is not rocket science; we have been dealing with infectious diseases for a long time. Do not let your fear rule your planning. Kelly

NJ Jeeper – at 12:12

So it appears we should: prepare have food and water and medical supplies available to us to care for our family preare for possible utility interuptions,

prepare to have in home care for flu victims,

limit our exposure to the outside world, by limiting our excursions to get supplies,

limit our exposure at work as much as possible by distancing, masks (maybe), wash hands, and keep sick people home.

I think I have a plan now

LizBat 12:52

I would love to be in a neighborhood of preppers that would work together, help each other, different skills, divide the work, safety in numbers etc. (And arguments over fair share, how disagreements are to be resolved, whether rules have to be obeyed and what happens if they aren’t when it’s MY kid who sneaked out to be with her boyfriend or to “go scavenging” against the SIP rules.)

But one side and behind me are several houses of renters with little kids and big dogs and apparently no money. They are not prepping.

One side is a family who give the kids whatever they want - “you ate a bit of the apple and don’t want it? that’s fine, honey, you can open the jar of applesauce I was saving for tomorrow. You tasted it and don’t want it so you dumped it out? Fine, honey, you can open the peaches.” No sense of discipline. She asked if I have toothpicks when she was pumpkin carving with the kids, I brought over the box, she dumped the entire contents on the ground, to take the few she wanted and throw the rest away. 6 months of preps for her family wouldn’t last a month, because if the kids wanted to play with the rice by scattering it in the ground, thats fine they’re happy.

Across the street are several houses of little old lady and retired couples who aren’t prepping; shrug their shoulders, if they die, they die.

I feel vulnerable being alone, but I can’t see prepping for, let me count, the 39 people in the houses immediately surrounding me, not counting boyfriends, grandkids, etc. If we absolutely knew it was coming and when so I wouldn’t have the expense of hauling it off to the food bank and rebuying, maybe yes, but I’d gave to take out a loan, especially if were talking about a dozen households of radios and lighting and batteries and thousands of dollars of tamiflu in addition to beans and rice and lard.

A prepping community has to be a community of people who are all (or almost all) prepping (the few holdouts having needed skills, or being incompetent). It doesn’t work if the idea is one person creates a future community by doing all the work and absorbing all the cost while the rest assume a right to a free ride. Better to not let them know you have any preps and keep your head down if it comes.

If I get sick, I die. Actually, that’s true now. If I fall in a bathtub and hit my head, or get too sick to remember to dial 911, they’ll find the dead body a month or two later, I guess.

LA Escapee – at 12:52

jplanner at 3:45: I have a lot of sympathy for you because I’ve been in your exact situation for most of my life. You’re used to taking care of yourself, because there isn’t anybody else, and if you get sick, you will be very sick with no help. That’s scary.

The only thing I can recommend is keep a lot of food, water, rubber gloves, masks, first aid stuff, etc., and try to limit your exposure to other people.

Regarding being in a not so good area, with low security, I remember years ago I lived in a very bad neighborhood. When I moved out, a neighbor commmented to me that she never knew when I was home because I was so quiet. If you live alone, being quiet, keeping the drapes drawn so people don’t know when you’re home, and not calling attention to yourself can be a plus. I did a lot of traveling to downtown LA and other bad neighborhoods alone, took the bus at night, etc, and I found that wearing dark, dull, shapeless clothes, dark glasses and no makeup made people ignore me, which is a good thing when you’re stuck in a bad place waiting for a bus.

You should probably consider blackout curtains, so if TSHTF, you can light up without neighbors knowing you’re home. They may assume you left to “be with family.” If you don’t know your neighbors and there’s a lot of turnover, is the landlord ok? Any coworkers you would trust to have a buddy system with? If not, consider joining a class/church group/charity volunteer work and trying to make some friends there.

Regarding fuel, I’m in the same boat. No safe place to store fuel except inside. I suggest you plan food preps for no cooking, and stock up on candles and matches. Someone suggested on another thread that candle lamps might be usable for simple warmup cooking - I’d like to find out more about that. Other possibilties, fondue pot for heat ups, or maybe a chafing dish.

There’s a way for you to make yourself safer and better prepared too - there’s just a lot of thought that has to be put into it.

LizBat 13:01

“If the local PTB decide that by having people stay home as much as possible the social and viral situation would be improved, they you had better be prepared to stay home! In some area going out may get you arrested.”

I was in Washington DC after Martin Luther King was killed, the city was under curfew. The troops I chatted with said anyone out after 4 PM would be shot.

I wondered how people handled it. Stores had to close on time so workers could get home. My hotel had no restaurant. Not fun.

If they tell you to stay home and they mean it, you stay home, even if you are hungry.

Leo7 – at 13:39

I sometimes think I’m crazy as hell for believing I will go to a hospital to work. It doesn’t make sense to a rational peson. I have no clue how I will react if my co-workers drop dead within my peripheral vision, I have no experience with it.

But, I do have my family experiences which tell me if I survive hospital duty, I will work in my community. People in third world countries usually eat one meal a day, after they have worked all day for pennies to buy food with. You can share your preps as long as you understand you’re giving up three squares and snacks most of you have put away. Keep your vitamins and Ensure if it makes you feel better. Spending thousands on personal preps serves to isolate and make you paranoid. If you only eat one meal a day how long will those preps last?

So you don’t like my last sentence. What if your wife got sick and I had the skills and the medicine to help her. How would you feel if I said to you, “Joe you wouldn’t share food, so why should I help you?” If you’re a fortress fine. If you think reading about medical care is enough to save her, fine. You will find out your plan is no plan at all. Suffering is the great equalizer.

NP1 – at 13:59

Wow, Leo7 you on the rant today. Kelly

diana – at 14:08

While I am limited in my own means, I live in an area, surrounded by the very affluent. Yesterday I passed by a new shop in the next town. A grand opening for windows, kitchens and flooring. I stepped inside. Was a bit ill at ease, as I was dressed very casualy.. A dozen tall men in Brooks Brothers suits, looking like models in a magazine spread. A dressed to kill young woman as greeter. I asked if it was by invitations only. No, they had asked all the local architects.,but I was welcome. Hugh platters of crudities. I took a taste of artichoke dip and left, telling the greeter that I would return sometime in the future. I am curious, I’m going to ask if people are building in any safeguards, like solar or altenate heating. We have golf courses every few miles, enormous mansions. I wonder how these mansions will be heated. They obviously have the money to do anything and everything in the way of prepping, but they don’t appear to be doing anything but conspicuous consumption. Considering what is happening in the world as far as resources what I see seems out of touch. My own little town is more middle class in the main, with the important masters of the universe of the past owning hugh spreads which have been broken up. Englehard,”Goldfinger” for ex. In the towns around mine these newly rich have lavish immense homes on small acerage. This has been happening in the last 5 years, and nothing seems to be stopping the trend. Size zero , attractive women groomed and trendy, beautiful very indulged children… At least the women must not eat very much.. A few lettuce leaves perhaps. I wonder what will happen to these well educated and seemingly prosperous adults if reality bites them in the a.. if we do get a pandemic. I enjoy looking at these showcases, but wonder what posseses people to go to these extremes of consumption.I am going to amass a ton of brochures. Basicaly its keeping up with your set.I hope with all the networking that goes on they have some backup.They are also used to getting their own way in everything. Not my world anymore, never really was. Just an observer. The money being thrown into houses is enormous.I wonder if they will make things happen if there is a pandemic, or if they will be helpless. Is having it all, really having it all?

LA Escapee – at 14:19

“At least the women must not eat very much…A few lettuce leaves perhaps.”

LOL! Diana…I think you’ve hit on a new type of prepping…”size O preps!” Just have a few bags of lettuce, some water and lemon, and you’re set for a month! LOL!

Leo7 – at 14:33

NP1:

I know, I’m suppossed to be writing a paper. Boring. I’m not in an isolated area. But we don’t need three squares a day in an emergency situation we all believe in. I was down in Mexico digging ditches for treated water supply and flies as big as chicken eggs were eating chunks of my flesh, and I thought what am I doing here, it was so miserable. About that time a little girl about seven or eight showed up with a water bucket and a dipper. She was shy and she wanted to show appreciation for the labor. Anyway that was the best water I’ve ever had. I still take from the common cup when I go to church. I can hear a fluwicki gasp…Somehow we’ve escaped our basic humanity which is to share with others just because we can. And no…it’s not a religious paper I’m writing, but sometimes it seems like people have just lost that loving feeling.

NP1 – at 16:09

Leo7: Yea, we humans have lived, loved and died together since we became human. We here in the US think that a bath a day MUST be the norm. What a joke. We have lost sight of what we really need to live. As a young, scared army medic I was up to my elbows in blood more than once. Gloves? Only for sterile procedures, if we had them.

I do not miminize the dangerousness of a panflu. I am an insulin dependent diabetic. It may kill me. I have seen people die beside me and know in my gut it will be me someday. We need to do our best to help others because what the hell in life else there? Toys? Money? This is what I realized when I decided to become a nurse so many years ago. Kelly

Goju – at 17:10

Well… i do not plan on exposing my kids ages 13, 14 and 20 to the virus. I will protect them from it at any cost.

They represent the highest infected age and the highest CFR. I would be insane to chance them getting infected.

De jure – at 18:09

Goju at 17:10: I agree. I suspect those who think they’ll do more for their fellow man will probably change their minds when they see people gasping for breath and then dying a horrible death, drowning in their own bodily fluids. I’ll bet it will make casualties of the Korean war look mighty good by comparison. All of this talk reminds me of a spoof on a Peanuts cartoon I once saw. The caption said something to the effect, “Watch Lucy, Snoopy, Charlie Brown and the gang rebuild their town after a nuclear explosion, and have fun doing it!” Right.

Olymom – at 19:13

Lehman’s has a lantern with a heater top — very cute. You’d need good ventilation though — You can also heat lots of things on a small camp stove — I prefer white gas to propane because a can of white gas goes a long way while the slender propane tubes don’t last that long (IMHO).

I think there are some ways to finesse the “share or don’t share” challenge. We have a lot of lentils and rice — neither are expensive but it’s not steak and cavier (the combination does provide complete amino acids though) — so I’m plannng to share lentils and rice. I’m hoping that cheerfully sharing a bland food will a) make us appreciated b) make people look elsewhere for more. A lot of the world subsists on lentils and rice — so I truly feel we would be doing a good thing — but not at the expense of our bank account or our own survival.

I also bought a bunch of small bottles of ibuprofen when they were on sale and a big box of sour apple lollipops for $5.85. Those are also in my “share” section.

26 October 2006

mom11 – at 14:10

Hi!

Thank you Dr. Woodson, for all you have done for us!

However, for my family…I just can’t imagine how forming one of these groups would work. In fact, I’ve been reading the same complaints from most of us…Who else is prepping? No one I know…Just about nothing. In comparison, I would say I am super prepping! To be honest…I know it’s selfish…But I’m not doing this to be the neighborhood food bank, the local med unit. I have done everythig I can possibly think of, taken every single $$ I could get my hands on, and used every breath of energy I can find…To prep for MY family. I don’t plan to hand it out. I do take things to an elderly neighbor, hoping it will give her extra..I’ve treied to encourage friend to prep…BUT nog takers!

To organize a group, that you could even put faith in, would take a lot of time. You would have to live in close proximity and have a common goal. There would have to be a fair distribution of supplies or someone isn’t going to be happy. Suppose you have meds for your family and someone else’s family member gets sick…Would you hand the meds over? I won’t! My children’s lives aren’t negotiable…They aren’t my lives to negotiate with. I have canned close to 1000 jars of food, canned until I literally could drop…I’m not giving it away. I have dropped off meat and fruits, for friends to can..BUT…. I have offered to help others can, even strangers…My grown kids are getting canned goods for Christmas, but the rest are for my flock at home. I don’t think people will get scared and want to plan for anything, until it is too late. To form a group then, just won’t work. It will be too late. People will look for us super preppers to join THEIR clans and I don’t think many of us are going to be open to being the neighborhood food bank.

I know that the infection can come home. That’s why I don’t think hygeine will work. You just can’t control the rest of the world. I can’t control my mentally ill little boys, who are super spreaders of just about everything. I am preparing to take care of my chicks if they get the flu, but I’m fairly certain, I won’t be able to save them. I will do everything possible to just SIP. I can’t quarantee it will work…There are no guarantees. I just don’t want to form a clan, belong to one…I already have my own clan. If we can’t get anyone’s attention now, then some of us would be taken advantage of and I’m not going to allow that to happen.

LA Escapee – at 20:30

Hi Mom11, hope you are well! I think you pretty much pegged it - we are all in the same boat. Don’t have unlimited funds or storage space, do have relatives, friends and neighbors with no sense of self-preservation, let alone urgency to prep. I appreciate having the knowledgable, funny people on this site to relate to - they are all great. Sure wish some of them lived next door though.

NauticalManat 21:14

LA Escapee, I agree with you about wishing some of the good folks here lived next door. Have tried to talk to some of my neighbors, gave two of them copies of Grattan’s small first book on Preparation, one may possibly be doing something, the other basically does not want to hear anything about it. Have a couple of care packages to give out, but will not short myself and lessen my chance of survival for people outside my family who scoff at the knowledge we have accumulated here on the fluwikie. Off topic LAEscapee, another case of Aladdin oil came, will burn it in the lamp and also in my regular lantern, no noticable smell or smoke. Thanks again for all the tips.

anonymous – at 21:34

I’ve decided not to prepare. Waste of time really especially in NJ. I have some disaster supplies and a pantry. Beyond that living in NJ with it’s pop. density all but assures that everyone here will get infected anyway. I have some Tamiflu scripts I need to fill and that’s all the prep I’m going to do.

Blue – at 21:41
 anonymous at 21:34

 Why do you say a waste of time?

 Save money for rent and bills(as much as you can) then you won’t have to work and why would you have to venture ouside and get it?

 Please tell me why it would be a waste of time-we would all like to know…
The Doctor – at 22:46

We are an interdependent species and always have been. This has been our secret of success and why we have come to dominate the planet. The thought that we can isolate ourselves from others for months or years without contact is not credible. Our best hope lies in coming together with others for mutual support and protection. Living in isolation virtually anywhere runs the risk of being picked off by roving bands of homicidal hunters. They will be attracted by the smell of your wood smoke or see your light at night.

Facing an emergency like this is not something any of us has every considered before. The rules that govern behavior of our civilized society will no longer apply. Those of the jungle will prevail. This is not a new condition for our species. For most of the time that we have been extant here these jungle conditions have been the norm. It has only been very recently that we have enjoyed the protection and liberty provided by the rule of law. These artifacts of civilization will peal away during the pandemic. Our civilization will regress until a new equilibrium is reached. This regression will be characterized initially by anarchy out of which a new level of cultural organization will emerge. It is very likely that this will be followed by a rapid recovery to higher and higher states of organization and interdependence as we put our society back together again. The problem is how do we cope with the relatively brief period of chaos and anarchy?

In my opinion, the social structure that provides a good defense against the type of threats human and otherwise, likely to be encountered during the pandemic and anarchy is one modeled on the small village. In the village there is a division of labor between food gatherers, hunters, childcare, medical care, leadership, and village defense. All human cultures present today spent thousands of years living in this type of structure. You could say it is “in our bones” although we have no memory of living life this way, the ancestors of each and every one of us did for thousands of years. This social structure is the jumping off point for higher civilization.

The village structure gave birth to many of our most cherished cultural values including family, loyalty, and trust. It is where mutual support and interdependence first took root. These values above all others are the ones that will provide each and every one of us with an improved chance of survival during the emergency. The idea that you can cope with an emergency on the scale of pandemic influenza on your own and in isolation is a strategy that is much less survivable.

A Pandemic Survivors Group is nothing more that a small village. There will be a division of labor and within the community. The PSG will include children, adults and the elderly. The community must have a critical mass of individuals, talents, and supplies to be self-sufficient. This requires planning ahead, what we call preparing. The PSG has the strength of numbers to withstand the forces of anarchy, which by definition are poorly organized. Most PSG will not be isolated from other spontaneously forming groups nearby. They are likely to trade and hopefully assist each other, even come to the aid of their neighboring groups when needed.

Some of you complain that you are the only one prepping near you or that you live in an unsafe area that is rather lawless even ante-pandemic. Others say they are not about to share with the their neighbors given the sacrifice they made to get prepared. These feeling must be pretty common among those of us who have the honor being in the pandemic preparation vanguard. While it is understandable why we feel this way, it is self-defeating to persist in this frame of mind. We are going to need the help of those around us to form a PSG in order to survive during the pandemic. People like you who have taken the imitative and learned how to prepare are the seeds of these PSGs wherever you live. As the pandemic approaches, more and more people will realize that there is a serious problem just as we have. Our task will be to help them get organized as they come to the realization that while it is not possible to avoid or escape this event, it is something that can be prepared for and doing so will improve ones chances of surviving the event. Doing so is not an act of altruism. You need their help as much as they need yours. It is really not hard to see that after individual preparation of a single family, the next step in social organization is the gathering together of several dozen families into a PSG. Where the isolated family may be prepared, it would be weak and unable to resist attack by marauders or if more than one or two of its members became seriously ill simultaneously. The PSG by comparison would be strong and able to repeal the attack of villains as well as provide the needed care to the ill. The PSG structure allows for a division or labor to occur that will improve the work efficiency of the group, giving each member a higher standard of living. These are the reasons why our ancestors formed villages in the first place many thousands of years ago and it is why we will do it again soon.

The notion of ownership within a mutually dependent group is very different than it is today in our current civilization. Because your survival depends more or less on the survival of the other members of the group, private property is of limited utility and might apply only to a few personal items only, like clothes and jewelry. When the village was the norm, individuals didn’t own the land or even the huts where they lived. The village was in possession of these assets and held them for the benefit of all. People like the Native Americans for instance, would never be so presumptuous to assume that anyone could own the land.

While we have different ideas today, during the pandemic while living within a PSG, we would be well advised to hearken back to these views about ownership and mutual interdependence. In this regard, the food, medicine, clothing and other survival supplies we have stored for the emergency would be willingly shared with another member of the group in need of help. This is the essence of mutuality. This occurs not under duress but is willingly given in the knowledge that the strength of the group is dependent upon the survival of each member. The individual sees himself or herself as a part of a whole rather than as a separate individual. A member of this community that shared food or medicine with a neighbor in need would think no more of it than the right hand thinks about washing the dirt off the left.

While this way of living may strike some as strange by today’s standards, they represent the ethics of our ancestors and are at the core of our survival and success as a species. It was these values that gave us the strength to withstand past visits by the Four Horseman.

Modernity has brought us many gifts for which we have paid a great price. The civilization Modernity wrought looks unassailable and all-powerful to the casual observer. In truth, it is a house of cards lacking a moral foundation. In the end, this will be its doom. It is not surprising to read the selfish views of some expressed on this thread since this is the one that characterizes our present time. What is interesting is it is clear from these same peoples words that in their hearts they care deeply for their friends and families. Reflecting upon my own experience of these emotions, it occurs to me that while many of us have begun to come to terms with the pandemic, our thinking remains stuck in the values of the current culture. My point is that these values of Modernity will serve you poorly under the circumstances prevailing during the pandemic. What will be needed is to assume an old set of values that were honored by the ancients; like the ones discussed above.

Grattan Woodson, MD, FACP

mom11 – at 23:24

Hi LA!

Wish you were here!

I guess this entire thread has been on my mind, for a few days. Don’t know why it upsets me. I think most of my friends, would think of me as generous, at least I hope so.

However, I know that it is selfish to “hoard” food, when there are those that need it….BUT…I selfishly don’t want to lose my children! I want them to grow up and live their lives. It is their right, that I protect them with all my might! I already have a clear understanding of what it is like to lose a child. It is very real to me!

I have worked so hard, for a long time, to prepare for an emergency. I’ve done some nutty things! #9 and I chopped our way through brush and thistles last winter, to clear an abandoned well, so we can have water. I chiseled a 1/3 acre garden with a hoe and garden rake and sick with all kinds of lung and kidney stuff. I’ve canned many mornings, until 1,2, 3, 4 am….I’ve lugged home, certainly at least 50 bushels of produce to can and canned what I grew in my garden. I spent days in the wild blackberry bushes and days in the apple orchard. Two weeks ago, I canned almost 200lbs. of meat, in 2 days. I have a side of beef coming next week, to also can. I’ve used every trick in the book to find the money to do all this….

I’m just not giving it up. If no one else is interested in this issue, how are clans to be formed, without us just sacrificng our own? Why is it any different during a pandemic, then now? People need our preps now. How about those, that have taken nice vacations, bought luxury items, and not prepped? We will be seen as selfish? But, I feel we all make choices and must live with them. Even if we share our preps, what real good would that do? A fully prepped family, would be wiped out, almost overnight, by even a few unprepped families. What about meds? Are those with diabetes, supposed to split their insulin, with unprepped diabetics? What good would that do? Probably end up with two fatalities. What about heart meds? Would my boys psy. meds. do anyone any good, if I shared them…I really don’t want to find out!

I’ve done just about every stupid thing, I could think of to protect my chicks. I took part in a vaccine trial, with the small hope that we would get a safe vaccine, for our babies…I’ve made many 150 mile trips to do this, with my flock yelling and screaming all the way down the road….I am sick, tired, just worn out….AND I’m not sharing, once the door slams shut….A clan? With us as the food bank, neighborhood urgent care? I don’t think so! I think this is a great idea, but I just don’t understand how it will work? Not in my world! Bird Flu? That thing way over there?…This was from a registered nurse, working in a major medical center!

27 October 2006

anonymous – at 00:17

I am reminded of a story I heard when I was a child:

THERE IS AN OLD FABLE THAT TELLS OF THE EVENTS surrounding a certain Mother Hen who lived on a farm . . .

Now, Mother Hen wished to bake a cake for all the farm animals to enjoy, and being rather an astute and equitable fowl, she decided to appeal for some help in its preparation.

So she first approached Ermitrude the cow with her invitation to help, but, somewhat irritated, Ermitrude replied, “Moo! Can you not see that I am presently engaged in chomping this wonderfully lush green grass, garnished with daisies? I could not possibly risk forsaking this happy opportunity to dine just to help you make a cake.”

Undaunted, Mother Hen soon afterwards espied Ferdinand the fox, eying her surreptitiously from behind a tree. She decided that discretion might be the better part of valour, and greeted him courteously yet vigilantly with her most reasonable request. Ferdinand responded in a rather contemplative and cool manner, “Hmmm,” he mused. “If I help you to make a cake, then I shall have much less time to hunt for my vixen and cubs; a very demanding responsibility, of course, and one that requires much forward planning, careful rumination and adequate reflection. No, I need all my time, Mother Hen, and care not to waste any of it in pursuing mere trifles. However, there was something else I wanted to speak with you about . . . !”

Somewhat discomposed, Mother Hen ventured hastily forth from her rather apprehensive encounter with Ferdinand the fox, and presently encountered Derek, the farm’s guard-dog, basking in the sun. “Hello Derek!” she clucked. “Will you help me make a cake for us all to eat for dinner tonight?”

Derek lazily managed to lift one eyelid, growled in lethargic disapproval at being disturbed, and proceeded to shift himself into a more comfortable position where he resumed his restful duty . . . .

The fable continues similarly and at length (as most fables are wont to do) as Mother Hen continues upon her righteous quest around the farmyard, attempting diligently to muster some assistance in order to make her cake. She meets with like excuses and unhelpful responses from Selena the sow, Herbert the horse and indeed all the other farmyard animals whom she politely entreats, including the inhabitants of her very own chicken coop, who all seemed far more interested in pecking at the ground than in baking a cake.

Rather flustered and in less than fine feather, Mother Hen is circumstantially compelled to toil alone for the rest of that day. However, the prize for her tenacious labours is splendid indeed, and a great big mouth-watering cake is born by dinner time at six o’ clock.

Now, Mother Hen was certainly not a resentful or spiteful bird in any way, but she felt that it was her duty to teach the farm animals an important lesson. So she triumphantly took up the freshly baked, aromatic cake and wandered around the farmyard trumpeting proudly about her great achievement, and asking of everyone, “Now, who will help me eat this wonderfully tasty cake that I have baked all alone?”

With the greatest zeal, ALL the animals in the farmyard volunteered to assist Mother Hen in this most appealing task, but with a curt flutter of her wings, a dismissing wave of her rear feathers, and evincing a rehearsed air of indignation, she raked the ground beneath her feet and casually retorted, “I sounded the call, but no one came forth. Thus, since none of you have offered to help me create this most appetising delicacy, then none of you are eligible to help me eat it either!”

Mother Hen proceeded that fair evening to enjoy a great feast, together with all her chicks.

I’d suggest that each of you who have broached the subject of preparation with others only to be ignored print multiple copies of this story and pass it around. Before TSHTF.

De jure – at 13:33

The Doctor at 22:46: Dr. Grattan, while I deeply respect your input and concern on medical issues, there is no way for you to know what path will be the best one to take for families to survive, based on the fact that we don’t know yet what the landscape will look like.

You assume a CFR somewhere between 2% and 8%. What if it is much higher than that? What if our points of sale and distribution systems shut down for longer than 3 months? What then? How long do you really think our meager yet efficient stockpiles will last for just our families alone? The point is, your suggestions may work under one scenario, but they certainly cannot work under all scenarios. In other words, I feel a plan must be more fluid, more flexible.

You mention that it is within man’s nature to band together in the face of calamity, and that each member of the group will add his or her skill to the common good. That may work for other parts of the world, but will it really work in most of the developed countries? It seems aside from just-in-time deliveries, we are also a vulnerable society in that many of the old useful skills and arts have been greatly diminished, if not extinguished. Look at the medical profession for example. How many doctors make house calls today? How many could go back to making house calls if they wanted to? Put another way, how many doctors are so specialized in what they do that they can no longer provide an adequate level of patient care regardless of the cause of illness? I would submit to you that not many could. How many blacksmiths do you know? How many people know how to make their own clothes, let alone wash them without a washing machine? Take a good, hard look around you. Most of your neighbors are accountants, administrators, yes, even lawyers. I don’t mean to disparage these groups, especially since I’m in one of them, but how many of these folks have useful skill sets in a pandemic setting?

The Romans used to say, “never judge a man’s life until you see the way he dies.” It’s obvious that we are all going to die someday. However, I surely don’t want to die the way I have read about in John Barry’s book. I don’t want my family to go out that way, either. I’m pretty sure everyone feels the same way. That means that when faced with that kind of horrible death, most folks would do anything they could to protect themselves and their families from it, at all costs. If another family knew what kind of medicines you had, and they feared they were afflicted or about to become afflicted with bird flu, do you really think they would defer to the greater good of the community? The same goes with food and starving to death. Neither picture is very pretty, and the Romans would probably agree that a man, woman or child who suffered that kind of death “did not live a good life.”

Furthermore, I don’t believe anyone would stop and think what the legal ramifications would be if they or their family was subjected to loss of life or limb due to anarchy. Historically, there have been common law defenses to an otherwise criminal act where the person found himself or herself in such a situation. A look at the definition to “necessity” under Black’s Law Dictionary reads:

A person is excused from criminal liability if he acts under a duress of circumstances to protect life or limb or health in a reasonable manner and with no other acceptable choice.

I would think if a man’s life were threatened by his neighbors, he would not be contemplating whether he should protect himself or not due to what the law may or may not do to him afterward. Remember, it is better to be judged by twelve than be carried by six. And if he is in the position of being judged by twelve, remember, those twelve would have managed to survive the pandemic somehow. I think those prospective jurors would be more or less sympathetic with their fellow survivors.

By your most recent comments (above), you seem to be arguing almost the opposite point of view, or “Necessitas publica major est quam privata” (Public necessity is greater than the private). But isn’t this the same kind of argument that doctors are now using in order to deny requests for Tamiflu scripts? Aren’t they saying, in effect, “I can’t take care of you, an individual (even though you are my patient), when we might need these scarce resources in the event of a pandemic.”? Or are you saying that the synergistic benefits of belonging to the group would outweigh each lone individual’s achievements? But I don’t believe that for my reasons stated above. Moreover, I just don’t see the group reward is worth the risk in an infectious disease situation.

Although I can’t readily agree with your suggestions on the PSG, they are thought-provoking. Moreover, it is conceivable that a situation would arise where a PSG would be preferable (low infection rate, low CFR, etc.) I appreciate your taking the time to further explain your position.

NauticalManat 14:00

To The Doctor

What a wonderful inspiring posting, but as nice as some of my neighbors are, they don’t have, nor do they want to acquire, a clue for the most part. Wish that my physician felt as you do about helping his patients, but even after I gave him copies of your Preparedness guide and reasons for giving Tamiflu out he did not respond, ever. When I returned recently and told him I had procured same through online sources he thought that was a prudent thing to do on my part! Sad as it is as a commentary on the majority of people out there, I am afraid I have to agree with De jure. This does not mean that I will not continue to try to inform and help some others, but it is a losing battle.

By the way, today received the Mayo Clinic newsletter which included an excellent 8 page Special Report on Pandemic Flu. Will try to get more copies for those whom I still hope to inform.. Doctor, keep up your wonderful work. Still waiting for your new book to arrive, look forward to reading it.

LizBat 16:05

“living in NJ with it’s pop. density all but assures that everyone here will get infected anyway. I have some Tamiflu scripts I need to fill and that’s all the prep I’m going to do.”

When I was sick with a bad flu-like thing, I sure was glad I had a month of canned foods on hand, because that’s what I ate. Occasionally a friend brought me a meal - one meal. Or a friend would ask what groceries I wanted and would bring some (not all) of them to me, three days later, not that same day.

I learned the value of being prepped for bad stuff to happen, of which bird flu is only one possibility.

mom11 – at 16:22

Hi De Jure!

Whewww! Glad you wrote…I figured the next time I looked here, I would read lots of people yelling at me, about how selfish I am…I know in some respects I am…BUT…My only motivation for all this prepping are my chicks….

I’ve thought of every scenario and I can’t imagine it working for my family. First, we are almost talking about communes and I think they went out of favor, long ago. I can assure myself of this, I am the ONLY one prepping, maybe in this entire town. If I can get to a year of preps and then share them with the 24 families, in the houses down the road…That means maybe 2 weeks of food for all. What good is that going to do? I honestly wouldn’t be doing this, for my neighbors. I am worn out and if I didn’t percieve a threat to my chicks, I would dang sure be doing something else besides picking apples in the rain, canning until the wee hours of the morning, chiseling a rock hard garden in 100 degree heat, and chopping through thorns to find an old well! That doesn’t even include the $$$$, which has been borrowed form my husband’s retirement account, charged, and every other $$ I could squeeze out and then I should hand it over for the common good??? Who would help me pay it back? Not my neighbors! I only know the names of 2 of my neighbors and I am helping one of them, by dropping off food etc., when I can. The rest wouldn’t bring any food here.

What about the $$$$$ in meds., I’ve bought. Do you think, another parent with a sick child wouldn’t tear through every bone in my body to have them…Then where do my children come in…Sacrificial lambs? No! I can’t do this? I just can’t…I just won’t! However the threat, that thisthread brings up…That aggressive action may be taken by poeple to acquire what I have….It’s time to learn to do something I swore I never would…Use a gun! The ole pepper spray, just won’t cut it!

Lurker Mom – at 16:35

Dr. Woodson

I am still mulling over your post at 22:46 and it is causing me to rethink some of my plans. I have always envisioned sealing off our doors and emerging months later to a changed world. I think we may still do that at the height of the pandemic in our area, but now I also can see my DH and I helping to form our PSG. I am already considering which neighbors we would approach first.

PLEASE HELP: I do have a QUESTION regarding YOUR BOOK and I have nowhere else to post it. I am getting the Flu Treatment Kit items in order and am unable to purchase 95% grain alcohol (retail names Everclear and Golden Grain) in my state. It is illegal here and in 7 other states. I really, really need this in order to mix the oral suspension meds for the kids. This is just typical of so many roadblocks I (and many others of us) have had to deal with. Please, what can you recommend as an alternative? The man at the liquor store said to just use Vodka, but I fear it could have reactions with the drugs. Any input you or another medical professional could offer would be so appreciated.

NJ Jeeper – at 16:45

Mom 11 Don’t draw your weapon unless you are prepared to fire it, or they will take it from you and use it on you.

Also practice practice, firing and cleaning it and keep the ammo away from the weapon. Use a trigger lock so the kids don’t injure themselves. Best of luck and I am with you kido.

De jure – at 16:53

Mom11, after reading your recent posts, I sadly realize I am woefully ill-prepared if this is a worst-case scenario. You seem to be doing some super-human prepping! Of course, you have the maternal instinct driving you…no, pushing you, forward to accomplish some amazing things. There is another instinct I’ve been reading about in Deep Survival, the instinct to feed oneself. On page 220, Laurence Gonzales writes:

 “Although the body can go perhaps three weeks without food, the emotional drive is immense and becomes an obsession, a drive as strong as any fight or flight response.  It can’t be ignored.  People, of course, will kill for food.”

When I read that passage, it sent chills up and down my spine. It seems all of us are dancing around the main issue, in the event of a worst case scenario. Anonymity may be our best friend in such an event. Speaking of anonymity, Anonymous’ post at 00:17 reminded me of another fable, one by Aesop called The Ant and The Grasshopper.

The Doctor – at 17:45

Intelligent debate is one of the highest forms of the conversational art. It serves to educate and enlighten all who take part. Thanks to all who have contributed to this very civilized discussion. It is a real pleasure to participate in the give and take.

In response to several lines of thought read here, I would like to elaborate one of the ideas presented last night on this thread in a prior post.

It seems that many folks plan to remain in isolation during the pandemic as a nuclear family. In their view, this will improve their chances of survival by reducing their viral exposure and will ensure their food and medicine stockpile will last through the pandemic. In my view, this strategy is not survivable. It seems that the reason for our difference of opinion is related to a mismatch between our ideas regarding how much protection we will be afforded by society during the pandemic compared with the present.

A family can live in isolation today without too much concern because we are protected by the rule of law. There are police, fireman, and EMTs ready to come to our aid at a moment’s notice. The threat of arrest and imprisonment does deter crime. Without this deterrent, things would be different. We are as safe today as we will be during the pandemic from people like you because you would not rob, rape, and kill our families then steal our stockpiles. This is not because you fear reprisal; it is because you respect other’s properties and human rights. As we all know, there are those in our midst who do not share these moral values. These are the people whose actions are kept in check by the threat of retaliation by law enforcement. This inhibition would be removed if the ability to enforce the law broke down, as I think is likely to happen temporarily during the pandemic. Maybe you disagree with this point and if so, this explains why we see this differently. My appreciation of this risk is one of the primary reasons I think it is imperative to join together with likeminded people for mutual support and protection.

Grattan Woodson, MD, FACP

nsthesia – at 17:53

Dr. W:

I certainly commend your comments re: cooperative pandemic planning/prepping. In an ideal world, this would surely be the model to strive for. However, I am not sure it would work in most places I have lived over the last few decades. Perhaps when I was a child…

I do not know where you currently reside. But your experience may be coloring your commentary. Perhaps living in a more socialized country where the norm is more “for the greater good” vs. the “rights of the individual” is your life experience.

While I DO recognize the advantage that a cohesive group would provide for weathering a pandemic storm, I would also find it quite difficult to ensure the security of any panflu group I would organize.

I have attempted to educate and encourage the medical professionals within my immediate community to this possibility. Hundreds of us reside within my local neighborhood of approx. 1,000 families. But, even if I can get these professionals to cooperate, or even those on my street, all it takes is one rebel to breach the security and either infect, assault or raid supplies/group memebers.

The problem with a group pandemic plan is that at some point, SOMEONE will be excluded. SOMEONE will not understand. SOMEONE will feel threatened. SOMEONE will feel devalued. SOMEONE will panic. SOMEONE will overreact.

The reality is that is will be impossible to provide for everyone. Those of us in healthcare are already concerned with that potential and dread those decisions. Each individual in a community comes with their own problems, educational level, financial resources and mental/physical health status. No one is on a level playing field. Incorporating virtual strangers into a group that requires meticulous functionality, is a plan doomed to fail, IMO.

For all this to work as you would envision (I would also wish it, but wishes are not plans), would require a paradigm shift like none ever seen before. And it would have to start changing NOW. And knowing humanity, it would take a couple of generations to achieve the social order that your plan would require. We can’t even get the scientists of the world to co-operate regarding THIS current virus.

This would truly require a Brave New World scenario in which people automatically recognized their societal place/role and behaved accordingly. But, there is always a rebel, just like in the novel. Trying to band together with people you know, either as family or colleagues, seems less risky.

If this panflu occurs with any significant mortality, IMO, it will reshape everything: governments, healthcare systems, societal norms, etc. Perhaps then we will have a world in which strangers will work together for the common good, putting others before themselves…I hope I live to see it.

The Doctor – at 17:57

To: Lurker Mom – at 16:35

Thanks for letting me know that 95% grain ethanol is not available in every state. This is news to me. How do they spike the punch in those places?

You can substitute 90 proof vodka, the cheaper the better for the 95% grain alcohol. Vodka is simply water and grain alcohol. 90 proof vodka is 45% grain alcohol and 55% water. What you will need to do is to take this into consideration and adjust the formula for each oral suspension accordingly.

For instance, when the formula calls for 1 tbsp of grain alcohol you will need to use 2 tbsp of 90 proof vodka and reduce the water added to the solution by 15cc. This will work fine and gives you the same drug concentrations tsp for tsp. That is the most important thing about compounding, you must be sure that you get the concentration of the drug right in the solution so that you give the correct dose.

Let me know if you have any other questions. You can reach me on the www.birdflumanual.com website’s feedback section too.

Grattan Woodson, MD, FACP

Goju – at 19:05

De Jure - “Remember, it is better to be judged by twelve than be carried by six. “

My karate teacher says that. hahaha

Dr. W - i have tried to get my town up to sped. key word is tried. No one is taking this seriously except perhaps the First Selectman. But even he has to walk a fine line.

It just may come down to every man for himself… a pity. Doesnt need to be this way.

I came of age during the flower power era. Hippies - peace love and understanding.

It ain’t that way no more baby.

My first instinct will be to help. But God help the poor SOB that tries to drop some damage on my brood.

anonymous – at 19:07

It certainly sounds good on paper but how long could this cooperative last with households only having a average of two weeks supply of food? The government does not have any great stockpiles of food. There are no great stockpiles of food anywhere in America or the world. They could not feed 300 million people for one day much less get it to us. To sum up what you seem to be saying is, we will all be protected from being robbed and murdered while we are starving to death.

Tuck57 – at 20:09

I think what the Dr is aying your kids best change is with a group. I know this is fiction but it shows what he means. (a free full-lenght book)

www.giltweasel.com/stuff/LightsOut-Current.pdf

Tuck57

Lurker Mom – at 20:16

The Doctor at 17:57

Thank you for the response. I feel very relieved that there is an alternative and will follow your instructions. I had never tried to purchase 95% grain alcohol myself and was unaware it was illegal here until I tried to buy it today. Just as an FYI, the liquor shop owner said it is illegal to sell it in the following states: Florida, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Washington, California, Michigan, Virginia, and West Virginia.

shadddup – at 21:18

The Doctor – at 22:46 ~

History does repeat itself, whether or not one is ready.

I read what you wrote with great interest. You were able to put down in an organized fashion, those things that have crossed my mind. Perhaps I may have misunderstood some things, but the impression I got from reading what you wrote brought a few of the following thoughts to mind:

Modernization has been very beneficial in many ways…it has brought a convenience and an ease to living that was not known in generations past. We can turn on a switch and have instant light…indicative of many *instant fixes/gratification* we have incorporated into our lives.

As with all things, there are two sides to every coin. While modern living is all that most of us have ever known, there are certain things that have been lost or replaced…some of those things you mentioned like loyalty and trust has been whittled down to a small group of people in our inner circle and even then that poses risks.

People have learned how to be independent…to not need the help of others, and also not placed in a position where help is extended. What I am hearing when I read these posts is “I, I, I, mine, mine, mine (regardless of what it is being referred to, i.e. family, friends, ourselves).

Your post caused me to see things in a perspective I had not taken the time to look at before. I see resistance to your suggestions, I see wishful yet hopeless consideration of said suggestions, I see lines being drawn (perhaps because we’re not always able to comprehend a situation before we actually experience it), etc etc etc.

I think that your post struck me cause it took me back about 14 years when I lived for months in the aftermath of Hurricane Andrew that obliterated South Florida here. We had no electricity or phones or water for extendended periods of time, and we banded together as neighbors. We were fortunate to have National Guard march in troops up and down our streets several times a day. While we has survived through a disaster and were not necessarily faced with a bird flu life threatening type pandemic, we banded together because the GROUP was more valuable than the individuals. I’m sure we could have made it fine staying isolated, but it was far more healthy in many respects to work together.

Nobody knows exactly how this whole thing will go down. Nobody knows how many people will start opening their eyes when/if the pandemic threat gets closer. And nobody knows how it will actually be to live through the pandemic.

I can’t relate much to those that have prepped since they learned of this potential threat. I live a prepping lifestyle and have for many, many years. I have stores of supplies in many areas because I believe foundationally that there are no givens in life. Consequently, pouring huge amounts of time, energy and finances into prepping is something that I’ve been able to spread over a longer period of time.

I’ve listened as many people state how they will stand sentry over “them and theirs” and defy any intruder that crosses their boundry. Well, lemme tell ya something, I have the tools needed to defend quite accurately and precisely “me and mine”, and with all my experience and education and knowledge, in the back of my mind I’ve still known that a scenario like that has holes…it has vulnerable points and risks that concern me. If that’s the case for me, I would assume that it would be for others too.

I’ve also met a few people who share your PSG views. They talk about gathering community members to work together to protect the village, per se, as a whole. They talk about the men baracading the main road (the trunk of a tree) to protect the homes in that community (the branches of a tree). They talk about everyone sharing to some extent their supplies, but moreso their gifts, skills, knowledge to teach and fill in the gaps for others. I personally see much wisdom in this. I haven’t worked out yet how I can be a part of such a plan, but I’m watching and assessing how this pandemic is evolving, trying to figure out how best to proceed.

I think we sit here and decide in our minds, to the best of our ability, the best course of action. I hafta say I agree with you that there is more to surviving a pandemic than a roof over our heads and food on our table. Going through something like that is going to be much bigger than any of us can grasp with circumstances that will present themselves that we had not taken into consideration.

Sometimes, my thoughts in imaging the whole scope feel fleeting and just out of reach to grasp, but I still sense such a bigger picture than what we are able to write out today.

Anyway, I don’t know if any of this makes sense, but I know what I’m trying to say lol…so with that, I’ll just…

shadddup.

28 October 2006

The Doctor – at 20:17

Bravo to FLA_MEDIC – at 04:50, Cold in Colorado – at 09:36Leo7 – at 14:33, Lurker Mom – at 16:35, and shadddup – at 21:18. You are my heroes!

Admittedly, my vision of the PSG could be regarded as idealistic. The actual form these groups will take will vary considerably from the autocratic to the democratic. Many will be chaotic. What is not in doubt is that they will form in response to a collapse of the over-culture. Think back to the depression era. Millions of homeless wondered through the countryside and within the cities during the 1930s. They came together in makeshift towns on the outskirts of proper cities and towns. These people self-assembled into ad hoc Depression Survivor Groups. Doing so provided them with community and protection. While everyone was impoverished, there was sharing of food, clothing, and medicine. The members of these communities came and went. Eventually, they disappeared entirely as the members were once again needed to serve the over-culture in uniform or in the factories.

That groups of the dispossessed will coalesce in response to the societal disruption created by pandemic influenza is a certainty. The quality of the experience of the members of the groups and their survivability is another matter. Right now, ante-pandemic, we have choices. These may not be available once the pandemic begins. We can consciously make the decision that forming a PSG is our best option because it offers its members including our own families the greatest chance of surviving the pandemic period well. Surviving well is not the same as simply surviving, an important point that I have been making repeatedly on this Discussion Forum.

This then is the challenge and the choice is ours to accept or reject. We have a great deal to offer to those coming after us. Will we decide to sprout roots and grow our hard won knowledge into a tree large enough to support others besides our families or will we remain an ungerminated seed? Choosing to form a PSG will take great effort. There is a possibility that you could fail. There is a chance you might succeed. If you don’t make the effort you will never know. If you succeed, the rewards will be beyond measure.

This is the situation as I see it. There is no right answer to this. Right now there are only opinions. We each need to make up our own minds regarding the path to take. The choice I have made is the one that is correct for me. You will make the one that is right for you.

Grattan Woodson, MD, FACP

Goju – at 21:31

well doc, I need help now. I have gone to my Town officials. They listened and asked me to help. Wonderful. I went to the local newspaper - gave them all the details of H5N1 and potentials of pandemia and asked to enlist their help in giving info to residents through the paper for prepping. I’ve contacted the school board. I talked with the big Church in town. Even got a majot TV network to come to my home and show my preps and talk about preparedness. I talked at length with the neighbors. I post Panflu fliers all over town. I made a very local based website about panflu and mailed invites to every home within a mile radius of me.

so where am I today?

All by myself… thats where. The town is talking about making a panflu website while the next town over made an excellent one and offered it to my town. My town declined… still no site - I have offered my help for supplying info for the site - nope… not a chance in hell they’ll ask me anything.

The paper? I requested they run a full story on BF, and not identify me yet… what they do? ran a bull story and identified me and my street. oh and mentioned 3 days of preps.

School board? nada.

neighbors? ha - not one takes anything i have shown them (WHO & CDC charts, news stories, medical reports, 1918 info) not one is prepping nor do they want to know about it.

Family? nope - not one takes it seriously - they just use me as the BF joke.

Friends? have one that lives 5 min away - he knows everything - even reads the boards at times - prepping? HA nope - i even asked him to write me his reasons for not prepping so i could share it with the BF board community to enlighten us as to the mindset of a non prepper…. have you read it? me neither.

Panflu fliers? they get ripped down just after i put them up.

My website? not one visit.

Your concept is a nobel one and probably the only way many will survive… but until Panflu comes and devastates the community, I fear no one will do anything. Then i fear, as it will be too late, take everyone near them down with them.

so I ask again… now what? How can I get to the point where I have a group who will band together and work together to help each other to survive?

I may be echoing many who have tried. I am frustrated beyond words. And just today my state puts up a panflu website downplays the threat and recommends 3 days preps.

I have moved from the “I will prep and defend myself” to “get everyone around me prepped” to “screw them, It’s gonna be every man for himself”.

Man… I need someone to show me how to do what you are suggesting… cause nothing seems to have worked.

tjclaw1 – at 21:51

Goju – at 21:31

I’m so sorry you haven’t had the response you wanted. People tend to not want to focus on the negative. I am finding some people coming around. One of the people I work with is prepping at least as much as me. Another is now expressing concern. I know at least one neighbor is prepping too.

I volunteered for my county’s flu clinic today as part of the Strategic National Stockpile Mass Dispensing program and by 7:30 a.m., there were over 100 volunteers there (Wow), many of them whom I have known most of my life, and the same people I always see volunteering in our community of 36,000. Many brought up the subject of pandemic flu and I had good conversations with a couple people. I think more and more people are starting to “get it.” It was really amazing to see everybody come together to make this thing work and we all understood the gravity of this training exercise. After this experience and working with my “friends” toward a common goal, I think the people in my community will pull together for the common good. On the down-side, an elderly gentleman had a heart attack and died during the first hour of the clinic - unlike an actual mass vaccination clinic, they didn’t have an ambulance there and had to administer CPR for 15 minutes till the ambulance got there. I was in charge of the area where the gentleman collapsed, so it kinda shook me up, but we all learned a lot from the experience (which happened during the busiest time).

Anyway, I digress. My point is that I’ve been following your posts and admired your enthusiasm and determination to get the word out. Don’t give up. If you get through to just one person, you may save several lives.

The Doctor – at 23:44

To GoJo and other frustrated people,

Be patient. You community is not ready to hear your message. You are reaching too high. Lower your sites. Focus on those nearest to you first. Then add a few neighbors. As time passes there will be more and more folks willing to join your merry band.

Forget the elected officials. Forget the organized groups of CERTS and such. They will not come around until it is too late. Pandemic survival is going to be a local affair. That is why you are important. Your role is not to save the community by reaching the leadership and getting them on board. Forget it.

Set your sites on the possible, not the impossible. You can make a difference. A difference on the local level, very local, meaning your friends, family, and neighbors. That is what I am hoping to do.

On the Fluwikie, we make a much bigger splash to the extent that many people read our words and act upon them. But the fact remains that during the pandemic; it will be a strictly local affair. You and those around you trying to survive.

So, have faith. Maintain your preparations. I am very sorry that you have received such an inappropriate reception. This is not surprising or unusual. They are not ready to hear you now. Leave them be. I really doubt that public officials are going to get it in time. Focus on the doable not the impossible.

Grattan Woodson, MD, FACP

NauticalManat 23:45

Goju

Guess I should not be shocked at your reception given my own experiences. Really thought you were going to make a breakthrough in your town. Think my efforts have had about the same effect, have only convinced my DW, a friend who is prepping, maybe one neighbor, but I am still putting myself out there. Given up on town PTB, they talk right over me when I try to point out in a nice way how little they know and how futile there present plans, such as they are, will be. They do not have a clue.. That will last until and when TSHTF, then it’s lock the door and look out for us and our no longer at home chicks, who don’t seem to take it too seriously either, but at least they took the Tamiflu I procured for them. My emotions run between anger at the ignorance and stupidity out there and sadness that so many will suffer if the Pandemic hits. It’s late and it has been a rough week on my end. Going to bed and maybe tomorrow will be a better new day.

Keep on Trying out there Fluwikians!

29 October 2006

FLA_MEDIC – at 00:06

Goju - I understand your frustration, and share much of it. But I can tell you: there is hope.

When I first started spreading the bird flu alarm more than a year ago, few listened. Family and friends rolled their eyes, and suggested I needed a hobby. Preferably one that didn’t include emerging infectious diseases.

Never one to listen to gentle hints, I persisted.

Today, my brother, my sister, and my Dad are all believers, and are all prepping. My best friend from high school, who blew me off earlier this year, is now a believer, and just emailed me with a request for Dr. Woodson’s latest home treatment guide. And thru my blog, I have received dozens of emails from people who are now prepping.

I’ve reached out to numerous family freinds, and several of them are now prepping seriously. No . . .not all. But more than would have if I had given up.

And even among the skeptics, the ones’s who aren’t preparing, nearly all of them have asked to be put on an `early alert’ list. If I’m convinced that a pandemic has started, they’ve asked that I notify them immediately, so they can prepare. Yeah, I know. It may be too little, too late. But it’s better than nothing.

You’ve done far better than I reaching out to the community. No one here wants to hear it. I live in a tourist town, and most of the residents are elderly. The Powers That Be are very hesitant to discuss panflu here, but I’m still hoping to get through to them. But it all takes time. And persistance. You should be proud of what you have accomplished.

I blogged for months, 4 or 5 times a week, before I got the first feedback. As far as I knew, no one was reading it. Turns out, I was wrong. Even my skeptical friends and family were reading. They just weren’t convinced. That took time.

The point is, whether you realize it or not, you’ve reached other people. Your enthusiasm, your willingness to go to the city fathers and speak publicly on this subject, has impressed many people. Some you know, and I’d wager many you don’t know.

You’ve laid serious groundwork. That is not to be underestimated. When Avian Influenza becomes a big news item again (and it will), people will remember you, and they will be far more receptive to your message. Even the reporter who botched the story may come back hat in hand, because you will already be perceived as the one to talk to about a pandemic.

Keep on keeping on. Best I can tell you. If the timing of your message isn’t right today, it may well be right tomorrow, or next month.

In the meantime, keep reaching out to people. It isn’t easy, and the rewards may not be readily apparent, but it is worth it.

Olymom – at 00:16

I have been speaking out for months — got to be the party joke “How many seconds until E mentions bird flu?” — have been sending out emails like crazy. For some reason, it was the article that ran in the Tufts newspaper that opened the eyes of a friend whose kid just started at college an hour away. Suddenly she “got it.” Moreover, she’s a director at a small school, so she’s talking to others.

It’s like fly fishing. Somedays you get skunked. Keep fishing. Change the lure, try a different technique, but keep going. I love the concept of the “Reveres” — you have got to smile when you think of Paul Revere thundering through the April night with the news “The British are coming!” — don’t you just know that there were a few grumpy farmers who muttered “damn idiot making all that racket should jolly well shut up” — and thank goodness he didn’t.

stilearning – at 00:39

I heard you, Goju. Loud and clear. Concise and clear. You have touched many here. I am grateful that I could hear you.

mom11 – at 00:40

Hi Goju!

I understand what you are going through! I give you credit, because you haven’t given up…I have! No one listens, no one cares! I wonder what will happen to my grown chicks, many states away. Many friends say, their faith in God will protect them…I pray it does..It hasn’t worked in this house. One thing after another happnes here, so I’m counting only on myself to protect mine! I’ve tried everything, only to be laughed at, ignored, teased! When I got sick, my grown sons teased me about the “bird flu” trial vaccine making me sick and…Maybe it did. Everything I’ve tried has back fired. Everything I’ve done, has been done the hard way. I have had no support for any of this. My husband hates it all.

I thought I was reaching the Amish, but recently when visiting a local farm, a mother asked me what happended to the chickens when they got H5. She had chickens dying. I told her that I would call the health dept., but to keep the children away from the birds and not to eat any of them. She quickly backed off and said “Well chickens die.”

I also understand what you are trying to say Dr. Woodson, but I see no way it would work for my family. I can guarantee that not one of the 2 dozen homes down the road are prepping. Most of them, won’t even acknowledge you when you go by. This is a very closed community and we aren’t from here. I’m not willing to hand over my preps to these people to watch my babies die. They are my motivation for prepping. My preps would be gone in hours, to do no one any good. I’m sure no one would be dropping food by here. My children are very difficult, trying to prep,cope and care for them, on a daily basis is all I can manage. I’m certain no one will be here to help! This doesn’t mean I won’t share, but I won’t threaten my one children’s lives by what I do. There isn’t another person, that would put these children first and I am going to. I share what I can now…I have taken 30 lbs. of meat and two bushels of apples to an elderly neighbor in the past two weeks. I’ve tried to help other friends, but no one is saving anything for later. I’ve just had it! I’m exhausted and can do no more!

Goju – at 00:49

No MSM coverage isn’t helping our cause.

No BF Board news isn’t helping us with our own doubts.

I took a break and went to the movies tomite… and ran into the reporter who interviewed me. The look in his eyes was telling. Shame? perhaps… avoidance? totally.

I resisted the urge to nail him to the wall since I still have hope here and perhaps it was his editor that put the brakes on things.

I see dead people everywhere.

mom11 – at 01:11

Goju! Did you just finish watching “Sixth Sense” too!! There is no bedtime here!

Goju – at 01:22

it is soo sad… when i pick my kids up from school, I look at all the other kids and think many of them will not be here because their parents will not listen nor act. They are indeed like ghosts.

I think we “Panflu watchers and preppers” have some sort of “future vision” where we can “see” what it would be like and then “act” accordingly.

In the book “Deep Survival” he talks about this type of mindset that survivors have… this “future sight”. The ability to see things the way they may be based on how they are now… and then be able to act with that knowledge.

I guess most of the residents in my town and my friends and family are not survivors….. they would not make a good survival group would they Dr. W?

Pixie – at 01:24

Goju:

Ok, I’m going to give you the view from the Mom front.

When you have a kid who won’t eat any kind of new food, and you’re a Mom, you have to keep trying. You just keep putting the new food in front of the kid. They say that it takes at least 12 times doing that - putting something new under the kid’s nose - to get them to like it (or, at least to find it acceptable finally!).

I think the same principles are operative here too. We are convinced of the urgent and important nature of pandemic awareness and preparedness, so we don’t understand how others, looking at exactly the same information and data, can not be convinced. But we probably aren’t aware of just how many times the peas were under our nose with regard to H5N1 before we suddenly got it ourselves.

Your town officials, that reporter, his editor, and obviously our state representatives (ahem..) need the H5N1 peas to be put under their noses at least a dozen times before we give up.

BTW, a mom can tell you that while it takes persistence, it usually does not take all 12 tries. Still, it always takes more than one or two tries before the kid eats those peas.

And ask your wife if you don’t believe me. I am sure that like the rest of us moms trying to get her darlings to eat peas, she often ended up wearing them instead! Goju, at least you don’t have to take a bath after the rejection of your efforts. :)

Goju – at 01:31

i don’t like my peas either.

Pixie – at 01:34

We’ve got “God given time,” Go. (Nabarro)

Use it.

And eat your peas.

Blue – at 01:50
 Pixie- Well said…I think you have hit the nail on the head.

 I don’t know how long it took me before I started looking for forums on the net regarding Bird Flu: It must of taken atleast 12 incidences of reading the possibilities of it happening.

 Think of all the wonderful flavours you would have missed out on if your mother didn’t keep forcing you to eat onions and mushrooms. Now I crave for the stuff.

 Well posted. 

 I noticed a huge rise in this forums readership after Pandemic Awareness Week, but there was also a few cases that came out in quick succession aswell.
Leo7 – at 01:54

Goju:

Let me offer this insight I gleaned from your posts after the conference you attended. It seemed as if you went through some type of religious conversion—if you take the time to objectively examine your posts the word zealot would fit. I debated whether or not to say something to rein your enthusiasm in so you could contemplate where you were going—but you seemed focused on death of children and getting out the word to deaf people immediately. It was like I heard drumbeats in your posts. I will submit that at some point you went from teaching to preaching. All this accumulated in the new rejection I’m feeling from your posts. You are an adult and can do what you wish but there are some things that will never change. Most people ignore park preachers and prefer church preachers or ministers where there is an established code of training, education and experience.

The truth is if you’re not a scientist you can’t cite science with authority because you have no background—or education in science to back up your words. You’re like a talking head on the news, not the reporter lying in mud being shot at to get the news. Sorry for the weak example but it’s late. Whatever your field is approach PF education from that point where you have credibility and speak with authority. The more you have to lose—such as a science or medical background—the more likely you proceed with caution because your peers will rip you a new one. The proof of this is in the posts of the scientists on the wicki. Cautious but lively.

I fully expect an emotional discharge to this post. I think your heart was in the right place, but when it comes to doomsday predictions, credentials matter. Otherwise the message is lost. You would do better working inside a committee rather than teaching it. BTW, I admire the way you launched yourself to help others in your community. I just wish it wasn’t hitting you so hard now.

jplanner – at 03:56

LaEscapee, thanks for the empathy a while back. Pixie,LOL— I know what you mean about kids and trying new foods, it’s all of the child development literature also…toddlers are designed by nature to have aversion for novel foods (to variying degrees)…protected them in the distance past from eating some poisonois plant etc. I agree! it is same phenonmenon..exactly. It is great context to hold presenting pandemic prep that way…people have an aversion to it like it is a potentially noxious substance needing repeated exposure to break thru resistance. We can’t take it personally, just like with kids. Over and over we must present it. I will use this idea with my friends.

Goju, take heart, so sorry for your discouragement tho I understand it and it sucks. You have worked so hard. I really admire what you put into this, what you have shared here and with your community, and how much you care. Please know it wasn’t a waste, at least for us. You showed me what can be possibly be done. And you broke this ice for many who you don’t yet know because they haven’t said anything.

About the previous conversation… thought thru all contingencies how to lay low in my city apt and still hope and wish for people to SIP with or to at least have as survival group and have not given up. When I said low income area of renters (someone else complained about renters without money behind her, dismissing them as possible allies in prepping. I am doing so NOT because they (like me actually) are renters. It is because of the TURNOVER..I don’t Know them, and they change whenever I make efforts to start to).

Unlike some here I completely agree with the Doc about the pandemic survival groups. I DO think it is the best way. But what I STILL WANT TO HEAR FROM HIM is what to do for those of us who live in areas where people come and go. Who unlike Mom11 do not have a built in clan? (so sorry for your frustration an exhaustion Mom11, you obviously are a generous person sharing so with your elderly neighbor. i am sure if thshtf you will share and be as generous as feels safe for you and your family. You are not a fool nor should you be laughed at for caring so much).

I have spent a substantial portion of money prepping for this.. It Isn’t a lack of generosity, I am willing to share. I don’t feel with respect Dr. W. that you understand at least the group of us who are WILLING and in Agreement that your survival proposal holds the most promise…but cannot inact it. I will say again. I have prepped to have food, to stay warm dispite not being able to store fuel having no land,I have herbs and medicine and supplies to care for self if sick, and PP gear to care for others, even. I have learned skills. I have lighting. I have books. I know how to grind grain, to make and bake in a box oven usuing coal, how to care for a flu victim. I have cardboard to block my windows, a tent to stay warm indoors, etoh fuel and sterno and charcoal for the poarch. I have bought many copies of the excellent original booklet amd have given them out to people I hope to interest in preparing.

One needs to be georgraphically close to where their allies live. That means, if I am to stay here, I need to have my neighbors be my survival group. THat isn’t possible. Many are students and will leave the area. People move yearly. My friends live far away and as I said are not prepping. I do agree with Dr. W. that eventually people will come around. However, what that means in practicle terms is that I NEED TO WAIT for them to GET it. Have worked my butt off trying to get friends to get it…because I care about them and their kids, but also because I WANT to go thru this with them.

So, Dr. WOodson, could you please address what one is to do in a situation when one is NOT able to rally ones neighbors to survive with? I just wish you would understand that NOT EVERYONE lives in a suburban neighborhood or small town where people know eachother and stay over time. There are plenty of us on the Wiki in those circumstances. I for one am working on letting people in a number of social circles be aware of this…and am activiely looking for people who are open to prepping. Still they will geographically live far from me…

I was just reading about Gunniston Co and other communties who survived well thru the 1918 pandemic. REading original newspaper articles, I saw from how they were written how everyone took care of eachother. They talked about how the public health measures would at least slow down the pandemic so “not everyone would get sick at once and that there would be healthy people to care for the ill”. I was really struck with how Dr. W’s idea actually was manifested in these communities. People used to live like that…know eachother…care. It was the natural order of things and still is in some areas. Not in cities where there is a lot of turnover year to year in housing. IT is really different.

anyway, great ideas. Not implementable as they are presented by all of us. I just would so appreciate that those of us who do not have the resources…in this case social…would be at least ACKNOWLEDGED.

Maybe if TSHTF or looks like it I will put a call out here for anyone in my area wanting to be in my PFS group…or maybe we can check in with eachother.

courage to us all, don’t give up!

Reader – at 04:46

Goju,

I’ve had the same experiences, but not quite as spectacular as yours. I have changed my strategy. I no longer “shout from the rooftop” about a pandemic. People don’t like being preached at unless you are a preacher of God’s word. You are talking down to them when you do that. I start with a subtle nudge like “did you see that article in the paper about bird flu?” Whatever they say, yes or no, I ask for their opinion.

If their opinion is not to worry, I tell them I am a little worried but I’m not sure what to do. I hear all kinds of advice then. But I bring the conversation around to prepping. I tell them I sure was glad I had canned goods when the power went out during that snowstorm we had back in ‘03. I laugh with them about duct tape for terror preps. I bring up all kinds of reasons for prepping aside from prepping for bird flu. Then I lie and tell them what a good idea they have about being prepared for bird flu if it comes and say we should both start prepping and how do they think we should go about it. They know how already for basic things. This just puts a bug in their ear and at a later date I tell them about all the good info I’ve found and I thank them for their help in getting me started. Quite a few, but not all, ask me for the info. I have a little list already prepared with web sites and a grocery list of items to buy the next time you go to the store. Of course, flu wiki is on that list. I may be giving myself away to some I have referred to here, but hey, I love you, that’s why I did it.

If, when I’ve asked them for their opinion and they say they are a little worried, then I say “yeah, me too, what do you think about cans of tuna under the bed?” This starts a conversation about how to prep, even if you don’t have much money, which is a major reason why most people don’t do it. I and most of my friends are not rich.

For the community leaders I have encountered, I have another approach altogether. I ask them what our community is doing with the pandemic money being sent by the federal government to the communities. Boy, if anything lights up their face, it’s the idea of federal money. Of course, there is not really a federal funding to the communities for pandemic planning so to speak, but it gets their interest right away. And of course this is a lie too, but I tell them “I’m pretty sure the federal money is being sent to communities who have a pandemic prepardness program, do we have one?” This starts the conversation about one. My city council did hold a forum on the concerns, I’m not sure if it was due to me or not, I watched it on TV and several mentions were about how to get money for supplies and equipment. Unfortunately, I have seen nothing since.

The point of all this is to get others to think that it’s their idea. They are way more likely to do something that they think is their own idea than if someone is preaching at them about it. You just gotta choke on your knowledge a little.

And then again, I have faced the deny-ers, won’t even talk about it. They’ll be the ones out there crying on the news that they have nothing and no one is there to help them. Yep, and we’ll all smell that rat then too.

crfullmoon – at 05:02

jplanner, let’s at least go out to eat together somewhere soon. (does pogge, or a revere, have your email?)

Dr. “a member of a disciplined, well-supplied and organized PSG whose members are committed to the survival of all the other members would” be very lucky.

Disciplined=taught, and, able to control themselves to follow rules. People who can understand that our “non-negotiable” lifestyle will be so out of luck if society gets a novel virulent virus. No waiting for your magic-antiviral, 48-hour town vaccine distribution, bottled water, cooked food, hospital cure, and cash card (and DMORT team) from the govt.

We are not the community authority powers-that-be (they don’t want us “inside committees” - and some I’ve seen, I couldn’t be a party to their do-not-tell-the-public agenda, anyway) people aren’t in a hurry to prepare about a scary, people-get-sick-and-die possibility they still can hope won’t happen, so they don’t have to act, and, the govt is keeping life “as normal” so they can think so (yet is on record as having warned us; local communities are on their own). We don’t have community leadership on preparedness, and they are working counter to what we want to see occurring; up-to-speed awareness and honest information, and, individuals taking initiative. TPTB seem to want to wait and just tell people what their severely limited options are during a pandemic year. (And somehow, something will happen to manage the fatalities.)

Just by not saying anything tptb can make us look alarmist (and some of the public are afraid to check the websites and see for themselves that the warnings are real, and have been up for a year).

De jure – at 08:13

The Doctor at 17:45 on Oct. 17: “As we all know, there are those in our midst who do not share these moral values. These are the people whose actions are kept in check by the threat of retaliation by law enforcement. This inhibition would be removed if the ability to enforce the law broke down, as I think is likely to happen temporarily during the pandemic. Maybe you disagree with this point and if so, this explains why we see this differently.”

I think it’s important for everyone who is not understanding what the doctor said at that time to go back and re-read his comments in their entirety.

Yes, Dr. Woodson, I do agree with your premise, your analysis, the possible outcome in such a situation, but not the probable solution to the problem. And I do not disagree with your point. I think you nailed it right on the head. There will be mass chaos and pandemonium in such a situation. We already have a small historical model for it. It’s called Katrina.

Remember what happened during Hurricane Katrina, Dr. Woodson? Remember how the thugs picked out the most vulnerable and had their way with them? I think Katrina teaches us two major lessons. First lesson: don’t ever, ever let an “authority” corral you together with a big, crowded mass of people in a single place. There are too many historical lessons where this never, ever works out to anyone’s advantage, except for the governing body. Anyone could see that the Super Dome was anything but “super” for a survival plan. Lesson number two: If you don’t have a gun, get one. Don’t rely on the National Guard or anyone else to provide for your own protection. They can’t be everywhere at the same time, and bad and nasty things happen to defenseless people when the sun goes down (and there’s no electricity). In fact, the Guard was instructed to take guns away from the law-abiding folks by the illustrious Mayor Nagan at the time. What a mistake. Because after they took their guns away, they left those poor people defenseless, to fend for themselves at night. Who did the bandits leave alone? The folks with shotguns, pistols, rifles, etc. And they did so because there were easier pickin’s out there.

So my point would be this: make your dwelling inaccessible (so nobody can come and take you to the “super-duper” hospital camp), and be prepared to defend yourself and your family to the death. As Patrick Henry once said, give me liberty or give me death. I wouldn’t want to live a slow death of starvation, cowering in some corner somewhere. If I had to, my family and I would go out with a bang (literally), and woe to the person or people who put us in that situation. I’d prefer to die like an American. Amen.

Tom DVM – at 08:52

Hi Dejure

Well said. I know you are a ‘thinker’so you would know that the particular system you describe is flawed. For example, if there is a threat at the perimeter to your property and you are defending it…the clock will be ticking because you can only stay awake for so long to keep your family protected.

If you live 10 miles from your nearest neighbour, you may be able to do it by yourself but if you live in the neighbourhood of other families who have not prepped, you will have a problem. As you said, “I wouldn’t want to live a slow death of starvation, cowering in some corner somewhere. If I had to, my family and I would go out with a bang (literally)…”.

Most of us have these small groups avaliable, they are called extended famillies and usually at least some of them live in the countryside…but then again several months enclosed with my extended family might be a fate worse then death.

I think it comes down to the same thing it came down to two hundred years ago in the USA and Canada and other frontiers….COMMUNITY.

We can form a loose association with a community. A community can share security patrols so that you can get a good nights sleep once in a while. A community can help treat your sick and buy and attain medications together ‘by hook or by crook’.

If you have the food and medications and others in your proximity don’t…then in my opinion, there is no way to keep them out…far better to have everyone with the same provisions.

We should be meeting with our communities, throwing 60$ into the pot for each family member, find an understanding doctor and get buying medications…it will be the cheapest insurance any of us ever bought.

Secondly, for the Government, keeping children alive is a matter of national security…again, 60$ per child is a small price to pay to have a country when it is all over…if they don’t save the children, in twenty years there will be others at the door.

Thanks.

De jure – at 09:07

Tom DVM: “We should be meeting with our communities, throwing 60$ into the pot for each family member, find an understanding doctor and get buying medications…it will be the cheapest insurance any of us ever bought.”

Tom DVM, have you started prepping yet? Please don’t take the question the wrong way, because for those of us who have been prepping literally for years, $60 is a mere drop in the bucket. My point is that if everyone started prepping tomorrow, and the pandemic were to start as you predicted, there aren’t enough resources (and I know you’re a thinker too, and probably much better at mathematics than I, so I’m going to assume you would agree with the logistical problem as I’ve presented it).

As to someone getting through your perimeter, there are whole previous threads devoted to this topic (before some of them were shut down), and a person could get many a useful tip by reviewing them.

No, I think the main difference between our two camps of thought is a philosophical one. The medicos, who subscribe to the creed, “First do no harm” can’t conceive of a situation where self-defense by use of force is ever necessary. Then this same group is thrown into a situation like Katrina, where if they were to leave their helpless patients alive, the patients would die a slow, horrible death. So they instead do what any humane person would do: they hasten their departure from this earth with the aid of a little morphine. We can’t stand in judgment over those good people, because we did not live the horror that was the Katrina aftermath. These good and dedicated physicians stayed behind when everyone else fled. And what is their reward? They’re now being indicted for murder. Just great. But this reflects what happens in a chaotic situation. There are no easy answers. The fact is that we may all die from such a catastrophic event as an H5N1 pandemic. The big question might be “How?” Perhaps you’ll just have to pick your poison.

Tom DVM – at 10:20

Hi De jure. You are quite right. I have not started to prep yet…and if I was telling others to prep, which I have not done, that would be unethical.

What I am trying to do is comment of the relative benefits of countries and communties banding together rather than individual families trying to go it alone…and I do not believe that I am disqualified from commenting in this way.

The point about the sixty dollars was not that we would be fully prepped for this amount. The point was that sovereign countries have a responsibility to national security. Being in a pandemic that preferentially kills children, without any antibiotics or other treatments, is not in my opinion just a matter of unfortunate circumstances but has long term repercussions for the country in question…if that countries adversaries to protect their children.

Thirty dollars would provide medications for the children and young people in question. An additional thirty dollars would allow some stockpiling of high energy foods etc. to support them so that they would survive in the interests of the longterm survival of the country.

In my country of thirty million people, 1.8 billion would do it…if I was in a position of authority, I would check how long antibiotics would remain effective if stored properly and then I would hire in country pharmaceutical companies to produce them. This is a small price to pay in my opinion.

I also believe that SIP is not an option to 99 % of the population. I think we must rely on our communty to help feed, protect and treat our families.

I guess my philosophical question to you would be…what is going to happen if your loved ones get sick. Are you going to let them die at home or are you going to do everything possible to get treatment elsewhere in hospital etc…

…and in asking the question, I lets that in the end it blows over and we were all wrong.

Tom DVM – at 10:47

Sorry, the last part should have read…and in asking the question, let’s hope that in the end, it blows over and we were all wrong.

TXNurseat 11:48

Coju..I also see dead people everywhere, especially the children. I drive around my town and see people going about there business and constantly wonder what will happen to them. As stated in previous threads I’m an ICU nurse, and for the last several years have been trying to get as many people as I can to pay attention. My hospital has done absolutely nothing (there are some nurses prepping but majority think I’m looney tunes) We had 1 meeting where we recently watched a live CDC webinar, and then they let me speak for about 30 minutes…there was 8 people there, including me. Last month our town set up a Disaster planning fair on main street, we had DOH, RED Cross with there big Bus, fire dept, fire rescue, police, emergency managemnet, and me with a table for pandemic preparedness, lots of handouts. We where set to be there from 9:00 to 1:00, we had less than 15 people show up, and the DOH was giving free immunizations!!! It was a major disapointment, we all packed up & left at 12:00. I have submitted very well written articles to both our papers recently, neither of which they choose to publish ( they would rather talk about who came to so & so’s party and what kind of food was served) I have been doing epidemiology research for more than then years and have published several articles for business preparedness, I have approached my community & my hospital not as an alarmist but as a person with knowledge and a simple message…the food will not go to waste- look at is as another one of your insurance measures…start slowly…it can be affordable to everyone, etc. Last week there was a big CSCMP supply chain 4 day conference in San Antonio & I spoke there on business pandemic readiness, I had a slightly better turnout and people who actually asked questions! Have not been able to convince my neighboors of anything..except I’m crazy! There are people I know around town who are taking this very seriously but we are all scattered out in the country. DR. W I think this is the point everyone is trying to make, we don’t live in the type of community that was around in 1918, as much as we all would like to. I have not given up and still talk to anyone who will give me 5 minutes, but the frustration gets overwhelming!

Goju – at 11:58

Thanks all for helping me out of my gloom this fine Sunday morning… the air is clean, sky is blue, leaves red, yellow and orange and flying all around… simple beautiful…

I’m going down to town to post more panflu fliers!

Then buy a pumpkin and carve it with my sweet 13 yr old dear daughter and wonderful wife.

Wolf – at 12:01

TXNurse – at 11:48

Here, we are listening. Thank you.

INFOMASS – at 12:12

This has been a thoughtful thread on which I have lurked for some time. First, while I agree with the Dr. that we will (almost) all be exposed, the 1918 experience was that the virus became less virulent over time after August. That suggests that even deferring exposure might have some benefit. Two, if we spread out the pressure on hospitals and HCW’s, we have a better chance of avoiding a complete breakdown. Three, as Tom DVM points out, we really need the government to do some things like stockpile meds for secondary infections because not enough MD’s will write prescriptions for speculative future illnesses and pet meds (while sometimes better than nothing) will not cut it either. If the pandemic comes and tens of millions fall ill in a brief time period, life will be very difficult. Unless one already has a social network, it is very tough to build one on the threat of a pandemic. We need a collective response on top of a family and town response. We are not doing very well.

De jure – at 14:39

TomDVM at 10:20: My prior comments, as therein indicated, were not meant to cast a hypocritical shadow on you. Sorry if you misunderstood me. I enjoy reading your commentaries, although I don’t agree with everything you have to say (but don’t worry…I hardly ever agree with anyone 100%…feel free to ask my DW and she’ll verify that). I would direct your attention to a previous comment that I made and underline it for emphasis: nobody (not you, not Dr. Woodson, not Dem from CT, not Dr. Webster) knows exactly what the next pandemic landscape will look like. All I have to go on is recent history, which doesn’t align well with what I understand a pandemic situation would look like. As others have indicated, the last serious pandemic was back in 1918, and the world was a completely different place back then.

To argue differently would be to assume a different premise, that the world during WWI was not much different than the world today. I could understand how some folks might go by this premise. For one, it would be easier to be optimistic, to have some kind of plan rather than survive by the seat of one’s pants. This is so because we as nations and peoples are the descendants of those who survived panflu ‘18. But there have been too many differences pointed out by other posters to ignore, differences that underline how dependent we have become on other specialists and specialized machinery. I for one hope that you and Dr. Woodson are correct (better you than me in our assumptions and analyses). But since I believe in the motto, “Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst,” I shall continue to put in place a plan to first defend my family in the event of such a catastrophe. Who knows, there may be a blending of different plans which one must resort to in order to survive. Again, I say we won’t know what the future pandemic landscape will look like until it arrives. I would just caution anyone before they put their trust in faith in their neighbors for their safety to first prepare as if they couldn’t count on outside help (worst-case scenario).

Average Concerned Mom – at 16:08

I hadn’t read this thread since the start and didn’t realize the turn in direction — it is very interesting!

Reader at 4:46 You are brilliant!

I’ve been thinking about my suburban situation and realized no one on our street really knows each other. Since I am out of money to buy preps, again, I think I’m gong to focus on our block. I’ll avaoid mention of pandemic or even emergency preparedness at first, just invite some folks over for dinner and maybe see if I can get a group together to plan a block party. Ideally, it would be good to get organized enough so we mostly had each other’s emails and phone numbers; knew each other’s names and so on. And one idea I heard of but never had the guts to try was to cirulate a skills and tools list — a list of people’s skills and tools that they don’t mind sharing (in a neighborly way) bartering or exchanging for cold hard cash (but perhaps below market rate, again, in a neighborly way).

Even though these ideas aren’t related specifically to the formation of a Pandemic Survival Group, somehow I have the feeling that such a group just wouldn’t be appealing right now to my neighbors — but who can argue with neighborliness? At the very least it’ll lay a foundation for some future more serious meetings… I hope.

crfullmoon – at 16:51

Hoping your health is improving, Tom DVM.

TXNurse, the “probably prematurely dead people” don’t understand why I can’t enjoy fun superficial things anymore with them when they won’t look into our pandemic alert period. (Not that I was able to be very light of heart the past few years anyway. But now, I look to be the eccentric recluse-in-training, or, just the town kook. Maybe I need to rewatch the Monthy Python “Village Idiots” sketch?) When they see pandemic occurring, believe me, I will not want to hear from all these people. Can do the most good now to talk about it, please; while effective action and options are possible.

And as for the officials and people in positions of public trust who are privately prepping for their households and staying silent in public, I can barely get within shouting distance of them for fear I won’t be civil. (Sort of kidding.)

So many children in this town, and people, and a whole year after the federal and WHO pandemic websites went up they haven’t seen the news, and don’t realize there isn’t even a workable plan to manage and bury all the bodies. The local authorities must have panicked to either “hope it doesn’t happen” or, gamble away those in their trust whose taxes pay their salary by saying, There’s nothing they would or could do that would make a difference anyway, so, we’ll only tell them what little we think “they need to know”. Following guidance from those in authority over them - bull- maybe; until they get up to the ones who said, months ago, to bring all private and public stakeholders to the table and plan how communities can meet the needs of people homebound by illness or quarantine for as long as necessary, as state and federal and mutual aid will not be possible.

Maybe I will rewatch the Monty Python, Undertakers sketch; the one where, one by one, the pallbearers keel over dead and those remaining add to the coffin and keep trying to carry it towards the graveyard… I’d like to get the community talking about mass fatality planning and they are still confusing the words “flu” “bird flu” and “pandemic flu” even in the rare official mentions of the topic.

I hope you have nice weather for your block party, Average Concerned Mom. We’ve had non-thunderstorm wind gusts to 72mph today; Nature’s trying to blow us to Norway or the Atlantic flyways or something.

senegal1 – at 17:26

Goju — don`t worry you inspired me to get my act together and start prepping seriously and also realize that we can`t go it alone. Check out Greenhammer.com for another person trying to do what you are doing in a difficult community (although the emphasis is on earthquake preparedness). I think you need to understand that you are not just trying to educate but rather create a change in behavior. This is one of the most difficult things to do in the world. AID agencies spending billions of dollars find this difficult.

I suggest finding one or two influential people (well thought of social networking mothers for example) or (business people) and getting them on board.

Dr Dave – at 17:38

Goju,

I have the same feeling as you everywhere I go, and it is has become quite surreal. All I have to do is plug in whatever CFR happens to be running through my head and I start counting the corpses in my field of vision. I can not stop it.

This weekend we saw our freshman son swim well in his first college meet. Good times (pun intended). We also saw our daughter perform solo parts with a district-wide honors orchestra. More good times. In-between, we went to a supermarket where we stared in horror as a customer opened a freezer door, hung onto it for support, and coughed her lungs out onto the frozen food. Later, we saw someone merely turn his head to sneeze, without realizing that he was sneezing directly onto other people.

While I do not agree with Dr. Woodson that each and every one of us will be exposed, I can certainly envision how 99% of the planet will infect each other. Much like lower life forms, they will unwittingly cough and sneeze and touch and lick and breathe and unwittingly exchange whatever nasty things are in their bodily fluids or aerosols. And that will be their undoing.

Total isolation is the only recourse. But I still see dead people, and many of them are my friends, relatives, colleagues, and neighbors.

TXNurseat 21:12

DR. Dave & Goju….seeing the “dead” is the hardest part of this whole thing for me (I see enough dead people at work) but the children & the young are just to hard to get around. The flu does not scare me, its the lack of basic provisions that most people won’t have and the ensuing panic and complete breakdown that will come with this that scares the hell out of me.

The Doctor – at 22:53

To those who doubt they will be able to from an effective PSG or who live in an unsafe area, take heart. It is early days yet. We remain in de facto WHO Pandemic Alert Phase 4. There is time remaining, frankly more than I thought.

Will Stewart, David Jodrey and I devoted a few weeks last spring working on solutions for people that live in unsafe urban areas ante-pandemic that would predictably become worse during the pandemic. This problem might also apply to some who live in an suburban area where everyone remained clueless and in denial until it was too late to prepare.

Before I share the solution we came up with, let me say that I would not give up on my family, friends, and neighbors as yet. As said, there is still time for them to come around especially since they have you to guide them. Since you have been there and done that, if conditions change for them and they decide they better prepare and join your PSG, you will be able to show them the most efficient way forward.

The solution we thought most reasonable for people living in an undefensible urban environment is to rent some land no further than 2 hours drive away. Don’t freak out until you hear the whole idea.

The ideal situation would be to rent an old farm in the middle of nowhere that had a big house, a working sweet water well, and trees that could be cut for firewood.

The next best and less expensive would be leasing a wooded area from a landowner for “hunting and camping”. Landowners commonly do this and the rent is cheep. In this case though the land is unimproved and would require you to make some investments in the property before you could live reasonably on it during the pandemic.

It would be nice to have a 1-year lease that would automatically renew unless either party gave notice to the contrary. Once the land is secured and you had a good idea of the resources it had, you would be able to estimate how large a PSG it would support. The next step would be to begin forming the group. While you would still be relying on your family and friends as the natural members of your group, you would now be in a position to attract members that were in the same boat you are in with respect to their present neighborhoods but who lived elsewhere, even in adjacent cities. Word gets around and pretty soon, you have good group put together.

The leased property will need to be improved to accommodate the PSG. This might mean roughing out some camping areas, identifying where you will obtain you water, and identifying good locations for a PSG community garden. A lot will depend on how the landlord feels about all this. He may have no problem with you doing some of this work, even getting a farmer nearby to plow up the garden. Once the pandemic starts, it won’t make much difference what he thinks, it is unlikely that a court would evict you and the PSG from the property, especially one composed of families with children. The sheriff will have bigger fish to fry anyway and as long as everyone behaves himself or herself. I doubt anyone will care what you do until after the pandemic is over. Then you won’t care either.

I realize that this proposition sounds expensive and true there will be costs to consider but maybe not as high as you might think. These properties go vacant most of the time and landlords are often delighted to get a little income from them. You will need to find out what the going rates for “hunting and fishing” leases are in the area you will be looking into. The same goes for renting an old farm. Don’t expect a nice cozy old farmhouse. The ones I’ve lived in had no insulation and were cold in the winter and hot in the summer.

If you like this idea even if you don’t think you can afford it, start looking now for a place in the country and see what it would cost to lease it. You might be surprised. If you have a few folks in the same boat as you and they have begun preparing, form your PSG now with these being the core members. The cost of the lease, if shared over 3 to 5 people or families will probably be something you all can afford. As the group gets larger, the cost is shared out over more people and pretty soon the cost becomes negligible. Ditto for the cost of improvements on the land. This would mainly amount to labor rather than money. So, give this idea some thought and see if it is something you could do. It might just be a solution.

Good luck,

Grattan Woodson, MD

TXNurseat 23:08

Another idea, maybe see if you live near another fluwikian, other prepper, who already lives in the country on enough land to support a couple of additional families. That way you will start out dealing with like minded people with a similar adgenda.

On another note - Dr. Woodson are you going to work during a pandemic, and how do you feel about being conscripted against your will? This freightens me as I work in an Intensive Care unit & my hospital has done NOTHING regarding preparedness. I doubt we have PPE’s for more than a week.

Blue – at 23:21
 ! Demand that they do or threaten to leave WHEN tshtf; keep asking about leave entitlements etc. !

 Make them listen.

 Don’t they have some sort of Duty of Care?!?
TXNurseat 23:30

I think if Marshall Law was declared our civil liberties will go right out the window, regardless of whether where I work is stockpiling PPE’s or not, they just want a body in that job (no pun intended). The only consolation I can think of is there will be no manpower available to go and drag in people to work. All the plans I have looked at talk about duty of care to the employees….but thats just paper…not what is happening.

Gary Near Death Valley – at 23:36

Personally I believe that most places, will have some sort of plan (hey New Orleans did also), but when the rubber meets the road, most plans for diasters, if it is large, end up entirely in the chaos garbage can.TXNurse I agree with you that the plans on paper, wont be of much use if the pandemic is much beyond the 1918 pandemic, and even at that level, I think most places will be so overwelmed it will be a diaster. Before retiring I was in the fire service, and helped businesses make up some diaster plans when I was in the Fire Marshals office, and lots of words on paper, but I always got the feeling, it was something that they had to do, but in the real world, most would be flying by the seat of their pants.

Goju – at 23:39

No dis intended Doc W. - your plan is too ambitious for as yet still an unknown. There are so many issues to deal with even if you can find a place to lease, rent or buy. May I sufggest an alternative - Get the local Public Health Officials onboard with our goals. In that spirit I offer the following plan…..

OK Fluwikians - we need your help.

As Pixie pointed out on the TLC thread, there is a major disconnect between the higher Government warnings and the local Public Health Officers who often control our town’s reponses to health concerns - in this case Panflu preparedness.

I found the American Public Health Associations website at http://www.apha.org

They have a Panflu section. It is woefully in need of our expertise.

I also found their Panflu blog… it is here:

http://www.getreadyforflu.blogspot.com/

I have sent a comment already and hopefully they will post it.

Please go there and post your comments. The more they hear from us, the sooner they may respond by telling their members - your local Health Officer - what they need to DO to get everyone they are responsible for ready for Panflu.

Blue – at 23:55
 Posted under Rub-a-dub-dub!
Siam – at 23:57

Dr W you said “It is early days yet. We remain in de facto WHO Pandemic Alert Phase 4. There is time remaining, frankly more than I thought”.

I have to ask you why you feel this way?

Blue – at 23:58
 Talk of washing your hands is scary-if the bird flu is that close its too close. SIP all the way…for it’s the only way.

30 October 2006

Reader – at 00:55

Average Concerned Mom – at 16:08, thank you! dh says I’m manipulative, with emphasis on the man. :>)

Reader – at 01:05

I think I will wait and see what it’s going to be like before I start organizing any neighborhood groups. We will SIP first and then assess the situation. I’m as afraid as anybody of anarchy and communities pulling together will be a solution. I grew up in Texas with neighborhood b-b-q’s, but I don’t imagine it will be anything like that.

Surfer – at 02:31

Doc W You are spot on. I’ve suggested this concept and have personally implemented it over the course of the past year. Best.

clark – at 03:39

I look upon the potential pandemic flu the same way I look at AIDS. Once everybody understood the AIDS virus, it was readily avoidable. Until the penny dropped, AIDS was the “wrath of God etc etc”.

IF H5N1 goes pandemic, within 3 to 6 months, the general community will have figured H5N1 out as well. The flu is a virus, not a black curse from outer space. I plan to keep my mouth shut in my local community. I did all of my letters to the editor months ago.

WE have monster log trucks barrelling threw my town everyday. I have easily mangaed to avoid them all of these years, without too much thought. I can avoid a flu virus if I put my mind and the mind of my kids, to the task. If we don’t, it is just bad luck or bad judgement

I am not afraid of looters etc- I plan to have a very low profile. Having visited and lived on a few communes in my time, I can tell you “community” is the last thing I am going to be seeking under the circumstances. This is not a hollywood disaster movie. If Rambo charges at this enemy (H5N1) with a grenade launcher in one hand and an Uzi in the other, he won’t get 10 feet before he is shot down, stone cold dead.

After 6 months or so of pandemic, during a lull, would be a good time to be seeking out others. People who have managed to survive the first 6 months of a pandemic would have some real skills- and will have proved it.

crfullmoon – at 07:21

(The APHA, website sure does need work! Drop this heading -didn’t even match the points under it! “PREVENTING PANDEMIC FLU:”

Only tells people to go the federal link. The Flu Wiki current cases/countries/cfr could sure go on that page. They could at least have repeated the pandemicflu.gov headings about disruptions to basic services; the ones that use words like “difficult” or “impossible” and that advise preparation.)

Didn’t sleep well enough last night…(wanders off, mumbling to self)

crfullmoon – at 07:29

Why didn’t the APHA put this where the public will see it? http://www.apha.org/preparedness/flu_pg_fact_pan.htm

(now, I have to go print more stuff out at the library, -And the discussions on the Wiki about 2% cfr would kill as many children as die in 2 normal decades- so the town can see it before our “pandemic forum” Hm, and why isn’t that APHA page on our town website?) (stares into empty coffee cup)

AVanartsat 08:30

“Reader – at 01:05 I think I will wait and see what it’s going to be like before I start organizing any neighborhood groups. We will SIP first and then assess the situation. I’m as afraid as anybody of anarchy and communities pulling together will be a solution. I grew up in Texas with neighborhood b-b-q’s, but I don’t imagine it will be anything like that. “

Sounds like my plan. SIP first, then work with the survivors.

Closed and Continued - Bronco Bill – at 12:19

Closed for length and continued here

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.DrWoodsonBookSaysWeWillAllBeEposedToIt
Page last modified on October 30, 2006, at 12:19 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Indonesia Outbreaks XVIII

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Indonesia Outbreaks XVIII

23 October 2006

Bronco Bill – at 08:22

Continued from here

Pixie – at 09:28

Indonesia Rules Out Bird Flu in Nine Suspected Human Cases

By Arijit Ghosh (Bloomberg)/ October 23, 2006 00:21 EDT / http://tinyurl.com/ylpaat

Indonesian local tests run on nine people suspected to have contracted avian influenza from the eastern island of Sulawesi, were negative for the virus.

The Ministry of Health, which conducted the initial tests, is waiting for the results from the U.S. Naval Medical Research Unit lab in Jakarta, Runizar Ruesin, head of the health ministry’s avian flu center, said in a mobile-phone text message today. Of the nine, one, an infant, died on Oct. 17 in South Sulawesi province suffering from flu-like symptoms. The rest are being treated in the provincial capital Makkasar.

Indonesia, which has the highest human death toll from the H5N1 virus, is stepping up efforts to halt the spread of the disease and tracking human infections for signs the virus is spreading among humans. The virus is reported to have killed a person every four days worldwide this year, more than double the 2005 rate, creating chances for it to become more contagious to people.

At least 256 people in 10 countries have caught H5N1 since late 2003, the World Health Organization said on Oct. 16. Almost all human H5N1 cases have been linked to close contact with sick or dead birds, such as children playing with them or adults butchering them or plucking feathers, according to the WHO.

While the virus doesn’t spread easily between people, some human-to-human transmission may have occurred. Indonesia attracted international attention in May when seven members of a family from the island of Sumatra contracted H5N1, six of them fatally. The cases represented the largest reported cluster of human cases and the first laboratory-proven instance of human-to- human transmission.

Pixie – at 09:46

Let’s all just tell Mr. Ruesin that we aren’t worried about H5N1 anymore, but are getting very nervous about the Indonesian mystery virus that has led to that baby’s death and has caused “the rest” to be “treated in the provincial capital Makkasar,” along all those hospitals all over the country being inundated with patients for the “umpteenth time”.

So let’s not call it bird flu or H5N1. Any suggestions for a new name for mystery illness with symptoms of hot high of 39 degrees, cough, and breathless?

Pixie – at 09:49

And, coincidentally, most of these “negatives” are probably being treated with Tamiflu.

Grace RN – at 09:55

“suggestions for a new name for mystery illness with symptoms of hot high of 39 degrees, cough, and breathless?”

Scary.

crfullmoon – at 09:58

“ABBF”? Anything but bird flu ;-)

or nowadays, should it be “ABPF”? -Anything But Pan Flu?

Tink – at 10:10

How about “Economy Killer” or “Economic Killer”. Let’s cut to the chase.

gardner – at 10:23

“ird-bay u-flay”?

Reconscout – at 11:08

How about Indo-BS?

Influentia2 – at 12:43

cephalic tetanus, mennigitis, respiratory inflammation? That’s if you die in Central Java. Tink at 10:10 has a point. It is all about $$$.

Okieman – at 22:19

More on the two children in Pemalang.

Liputan6.com,

Pemalang: the older brother’s two children were siblings in Pemalang, Central Java, Wiji Riyanti (7) and Yusuf Maulana (4), died not long after several of his kept chickens died suddenly, just recently.

The temporary assumption of the two children was attacked by the virus avian influenza or bird flu.

Villagers Pedurungan, this Garden Subdistrict died without experienced was sick serious. Both of them could receive the medical handling in puskemas local but his life was not helped.

Before dying Riyati and Yusuf could experience cramps was accompanied by the height of the temperature of the body.

The community health centre side suggested parents both of them during immediately brought Riyati and Yusuf to the hospital. However in the trip towards the Yusuf hospital blew out the last breath and one hour afterwards the Riyati older brother following.

The family claimed to be several the previous day, their four kept chickens were sick and several chickens belonging to the neighbour precisely died suddenly without being known by his cause. To ascertain the cause of the death of casualties, the hospital side handed over the sample of blood and casualties’s saliva to the laboratory of the province of the health service. (YYT/Sugihartono)

http://www.liputan6.com/view/7,131331,1,0,1161655906.html

Okieman – at 22:39

More on the two brothers. It appears to not be bird flu, but they do not state what disease it is thought to be.

The NEWS about the Wiji Riyati death and his brother, Yusuf Maulana, the first time spread in the middle of the community widely as a result of being attacked by bird flu.

Although later the assumption of missing, could become serious attention of the agency’s related service.

The sixth and seventh child from the couple Tinyati (44) and Farikhin (45), villagers Pedurungan West, the Garden Subdistrict, Pemalang, everyday lived in inadequacy. Imagined, their father as the support of the pole of the family’s economics only worked as the bricklayer, whereas his wife lived in the house. Our child all of them seven. All of them were still becoming our security, not yet there are those that worked, whereas their father his production was uncertain. Because, he only a bricklayer, said Tinyatin.

The woman appeared strong with his husband faced this disaster. They did not appear to cry when coming across several mourners and the party of the guest from the subdistrict and the regency, including the Section Head the Health of the doctor Brotoseno the MARCH. Perhaps because of the condition for economics that barely adequate that, the health of their children was not thought about. That was in accordance with the Brotoseno analysis after checking the two casualties.

According to him, the two unfortunate children malnutrition. That was seen from the physical situation thin casualties, and the weight that was not in accordance with his age.

Not Burung Flu

The condition for casualties’s house very simple. Was at the edge of the Elon Time embankment that from time to time could overflow and cause the flood. Moreover, the aspect pengudaraan (ventilation) the house also not all that. Results of the inspection of casualties’s body that was carried out by the Health Service showed malnutrition to the two children.

The family’s member there are those that was stated had suffered the inflammation of ears, whereas the cause of the death of the two children was the tetanus illness or the inflammation of the respiratory tract. So, ‘not bird flu’, stressed Brotoseno.

After being checked, the two casualties were buried after the zuhur prayer in the funeral of the Row Village (the neighbour the Pedurungan Village), on last Sunday. The funeral is carried out like usually. Was not treated like casualties of the bird flu illness. For example to be packed with the plastic package or aluminium voil. The similar matter was also revealed by the Sub-district Head the Garden of Sunaryo SIP. the News about the Wiji death and Yusuf the first time spread indeed resulting from bird flu.

That was sent by several citizens because beforehand around casualties’s house had the poultry belonging to the inhabitants who died suddenly. However to anticipate the dangerous illness emergence, the Health Service has carried out spraying disinfektan. Moreover, the official also checked several livestock that still were living. However did not have signs like that was estimated by the citizen. Therefore, all the sides were asked to stay calm and to always maintain the health of the family and the environment. (Saiful Bachri-41n)

http://tinyurl.com/zhn6f

Pixie – at 22:44

No, it’s not flu burung. We don’t have to worry about bird flu in Indonesia. We just have to worry about that freakish Indonesian virus that’s killing 76% of those it infects.

I suspect we will be very busy this time next week.

Michelle in OK – at 22:59

Hi all. I think I’ll wait on the official confirmation to mark the patients from S. Sulawesi as negative (see article posted by Pixie at 9:28.) The infant who died was Fajrin, but other than that, I’m not sure to which 9 people they are referring.

There were no changes in the summary today, so I won’t repost it.

24 October 2006

Commonground – at 06:31

Tuesday 10/24 - check all my sites - no news. Have a great day everyone.

worrywart – at 11:51

Everybody is on holiday in Indonesia with opportunistic virus working overtime. I exspect a lot of cases to pop up shortly.

anonymous – at 11:56

Has anyone been able to access the Jakarta Post lately? It won’t load.

Oremus – at 12:46

anonymous – at 11:56

Nope.

Tiger Lily – at 14:25

Comment: Apologies if this has been posted earlier this month. This is the first I have read of it and didn’t see it posted with the archived news thread.

US President Bush may visit Indonesia next month

3 October 2006

JAKARTA - US President George W Bush may visit Indonesia next month to meet leaders of the world’s most populous Muslim nation, seen as a close ally in Washington’s global war on terrorism, an official said on Tuesday.

Desra Percaya, spokesman for the Indonesian Foreign Ministry, said there were talks about Bush visiting after attending the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Vietnam on November 18 and 19.

‘But the actual date and confirmation are still being discussed between the two sides,’ Percaya told reporters, declining to provide further details.

http://tinyurl.com/yxeegj

mojo – at 14:44

this might cause some resp problems Indonesia Holiday Travel Hit as Haze Shuts Airports PALEMBANG, Indonesia - Airports on Indonesia’s Sumatra island were shut or operating reduced services on Monday after rains failed to clear smoke from forest fires that cut visibility to just 200 metres, officials said.

The haze has piled on extra misery for travellers during a peak Muslim holiday period this week when Indonesians go back to their home towns and villages for Eid al-Fitr festivities marking the end of the fasting month of Ramadan.

Sultan Thaha airport in Sumatra’s Jambi province, where flights have been cancelled since last week, remained closed on Monday. The airport handles around 13 flights a day.

“There has been no decision whether it will open tomorrow,” said airport spokesman Olan Simanjuntak.

“It’s getting worse, it was raining last night but it has not improved the situation,” he added.

If rains are not sustained they can actually cause more smoke on burning land, particularly peat lands where fires are notoriously difficult to douse.

The fires have been raging for weeks, spreading smoke across much of Southeast Asia and triggering fears of a repeat of the environmental disaster in 1997–98 when dry conditions linked to the El Nino weather pattern caused a choking haze that cost the region billions of dollars in economic losses.

Authorities briefly closed another airport in Sumatra on Monday due to poor visibility.

The airport in the southern Sumatra city of Palembang has been overflowing with travellers after flights to Jambi were diverted there.

“The haze forced us to close the airport again,” Slamet Ditikno, an official at the control tower of Sultan Mahmud Badaruddin airport, told Reuters.

Flights resumed in the morning after visibility improved from 200 metres (650 ft) to more than 1,000 metres, another airport official said, adding that five flights had been delayed. RUSSIAN FIRE-FIGHTING PLANES

Indonesia’s disaster agency has leased two Russian amphibious fire-fighting planes to help in the battle, the Jakarta Post reported on Monday.

Indonesia’s neighbours have grown increasingly frustrated over the fires, most of which are deliberately lit by farmers or by timber and palm oil plantation owners.

But environment ministers from Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand and Brunei failed to agree on a detailed plan of attack when they met in Sumatra on Oct. 13.

The holiday travel chaos was not confined to haze-shrouded Sumatra.

In heavily populated Java island, traffic jams stretching more than 10 km (6 miles) were reported at the weekend on the Indramayu-Cirebon section of the road network on the northern coast. Police reported a string of deadly car accidents.

The number of vehicles heading out of the greater Jakarta area was nearly eight million, 54 percent up on last year, Kompas newspaper reported, citing Transport Ministry data.

(Additional reporting by Harry Suhartono in Jakarta)

Story by Crack Palinggi

REUTERS NEWS SERVICE http://www.planetark.org/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/38623/story.htm

25 October 2006

Influentia2 – at 05:38

From 22:19 To ascertain the cause of the death of casualties, the hospital side handed over the sample of blood and casualties’s saliva to the laboratory of the province of the health service.

_______________________________________________________________

The results of these tests maybe will tell the tale since I am not so convinced the locals knew what they were doing. In the previous thread several causes of death were mentioned by officials. Wait and see again.

Commonground – at 06:16

No new news today - 10/25 - at any of my sites.

Commonground – at 11:33

Posted by Dutchie at FluTrakers. I don’t have a record of this person. Central Sumatra
The patient was suspected Bird Flu was returned

on Friday, October 20 2006 –

the Patient that was expected contaminated by bird flu, Wagiem (40) the Citizen Bangko Jaya Rohil, that uptil now was treated in Irna D RSUD Dumai isolation space has been permitted to come home.

This was caused by his health that has begun to improve.

The head of the Secretariat RSUD the Dumai City, Dr Syaiful, was accompanied by Kasi the service Dr Rita Novery, to several reporters, on Wednesday (18/10) explained, the return of the patient at the request of his family.

That was also supported with membai him his health. Said Wagien was the settling citizen in RT 02/RW 03 Bangko Jaya was the reconciliation patient from the Bangko Jaya Community Health Centre yamg underwent treated inap in RSUD the Dumai City since Sunday (15/10). “Wagiem experienced the high fever, was accompanied by the cough, flu and was sick to saluran breathing.” (saluran = gutter, tract, drain)

Now in his residence of dozens of tails of the chicken died suddenly, after being investigated evidently the chicken positive was attacked by the virus H5N−1 or bird flu.

However we could not say Wagiem was attacked by bird flu because still was waiting for results test blood that already dikiri to Diskes Riau, his seal.

Told in RSUD Dumai Wagiem under the handling Dr Erman Fauzi, But mamasuki the fourth day underwent treated overnight, his health appeared to begin to improve, so as on last Wednesday morning (18/10) on request of the family, Wagien had finally been permitted to come home.

http://tinyurl.com/wv6n4

Pixie – at 11:53

RSUD Dumai is one of the WHO H5N1 reference hospitals, and it is in Ruai Province, on the Island of Sumatra, in the middle on the north coast. http://tinyurl.com/ym3uua

cottontop – at 12:01

Pixie- funny how they didn’t metion wether he was treated with Tamiflu or not.

Grace RN – at 14:56

The similarity creeps me out:

mojo – at 14:44 “this might cause some resp problems Indonesia Holiday Travel Hit as Haze Shuts Airports PALEMBANG, Indonesia - Airports on Indonesia’s Sumatra island were shut or operating reduced services on Monday after rains failed to clear smoke from forest fires that cut visibility to just 200 metres, officials said.

The haze has piled on extra misery for travellers during a peak Muslim holiday period this week when Indonesians go back to their home towns and villages for Eid al-Fitr festivities marking the end of the fasting month of Ramadan.”

AND:

PBS American Experience: Influenza 1918

link:http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/influenza/filmmore/transcript/transcript1.html

“NARRATION: Some say it began in the spring of 1918, when soldiers at Fort Riley, Kansas, burned tons of manure. A gale kicked up. A choking duststorm swept out over the land — a stinging, stinking yellow haze. The sun went dead black in Kansas.

NARRATION: Two days later — on March 11th, 1918 — an Army private reported to the camp hospital before breakfast. He had a fever, sore, throat, headache… nothing serious. One minute later, another soldier showed up. By noon, the hospital had over a hundred cases; in a week, 500.”

pugmom – at 23:52

Disbelief in Bali” dated 10–26–06. http://tinyurl.com/y832vj

On Thursday, October 26 2006 the Provincial Government was not sure Bird Flu infected Babi

Denpasar - the Section Head Balinese Province Livestock Breeding, Ir Ida Bagus Raka not yet believe in that bird flu infected the pig as being found by the team of the Medical Faculty the Animal (FKH) Unud. Raka precisely claims up to now to be his side did not yet get the report on the existence of the pig that died the reason for the virus attack H5N1 that.

“Till at this time in Bali did not yet have bird flu infected the pig.” That would just the temporary assumption of the team of the researcher Unud. We with BPPV also has taken sample, but not yet in the conclusion of the existence jangkitan to the pig, said Raka toned denied it, to this newspaper, yesterday. His side will only trust results of the laboratory that the implementation personally.

Nevertheless his side continued to guard against the possibility of the occurrence of the mutation of bird flu to the other animal. “Our target precisely made Bali the free area of bird flu,” he stated. Because that of various anticipation was carried out….

“Frank that was minded by us was the Balinese tourism image, because if rumours of bird flu spread would more our bustle developed again this tourism,” obviously him….

Pixie – at 23:58

“…obviously him….”

26 October 2006

Pixie – at 00:40

SULAWESI

26/10/2006 09:05 / MetroTV / http://tinyurl.com/sbytr

In MAJENE, the WASTE of the CHICKEN was checked

Efforts prevented expanded him the bird flu virus continued to be carried out.

In Majene, Sulawesi West, the agricultural Service and local Livestock Breeding checked the waste of the chicken to detect early the possibility of the spreading of the bird flu virus.

The official of Livestock Breeding of the Service visited each place of the sale of the chicken in the Majene Centre Market. Randomly, chickens were belonging to the trader taken by his waste during afterwards was checked. The local government worried after beforehand their area could be attacked by the plague of bird flu, the year set.

Moreover, this inspection was also aimed to give the safe feeling for the consumer.

Apart from spreading out the sample inspection of the waste of the chicken, the official also carried out spraying disinfektan in all the chicken coops that were sold by the trader in this centre market.

Influentia2 – at 05:32

“Frank that was minded by us was the Balinese tourism image, because if rumours of bird flu spread would more our bustle developed again this tourism,” obviously him…. 23:52 post

Moreover, this inspection was also aimed to give the safe feeling for the consumer. 00:40 post

….and that’s what it’s all about……

AnnieBat 05:51

In a country that has a huge dependency on tourism to support the local people it is no wonder that they will be very cautious - name one country that would operate any differently?

Commonground – at 06:26

No news today - 10/26.

crfullmoon – at 08:52

A poster at CurEvents found this one, just so you know:

It’s a given that some people expect presents October 21, 2006

…”Inside the envelope will be a wad of banknotes, in appreciation of their attendance and expectation of a positive story.

They call it “envelope journalism”, a custom not only practised by flash lawyers and dodgy developers: big corporations, government agencies and even charities regularly distribute cash to the local media. On a couple of occasions gifts have been given to foreign journalists but they have handed them back.

This week two government ministries admitted they continued to hand out envelopes of cash to journalists who attended press events, despite President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s campaign to eradicate corruption.

Insiders say the pay-offs have grown more sophisticated.

Press conference envelopes normally contain between $10 and $100, but many journalists have established bank accounts into which corporations can directly wire much larger amounts.

Tomorrow is expected to mark Idul Fitri, the end of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan, a traditional time of gift giving when journalists expect and even demand contributions from the individuals and authorities they cover.

The editor-in-chief of The Jakarta Post, Endy Bayuni, admits the practice presents a serious ethical quandary.

“They don’t say it, but there’s an understanding they expect you to write positively,” he said. “Normally people turn a blind eye to a small payment, but sometimes it’s much more and can be an attempt to bribe a journalist.

“Around Muslim holidays it gets even crazier, because some government authorities and companies feel they have to give gifts to journalists.”

This week, many local journalists were demanding an annual handout to celebrate the end of Ramadan, but some take the process a step further, Bayuni said. “They ask for money, threatening businesses with negative publicity. It’s like extortion; it happens quite a lot.”

Indonesian journalists’ salaries are meagre, often exceeded by envelope income.

“Some organisations don’t pay any salary,” Bayuni said. “They just give the journalists a press card and let them raise money from news sources.”

…”“If the messengers themselves are corrupt, how do you trust the message?” he asked. “We need to address this problem seriously so we can be part of the campaign against corruption, but at the moment we are part of the problem.”…

Commonground – at 10:55

Wow. Well that is an eye opener. Guess we just wait for mass casualities then. It makes it so hard to try to get a sign of what’s going on there in Indonesia. I’m very frustrated with this article.

pugmom – at 11:01

I read an article detailing the same practices about a month ago. It was about journalists in Sulawesi that were paid not to publish stories. But, hey, our journalists here in MSM America aren’t talking about the issues either.

Jewel – at 11:22

Grace RN at 14:56

I was thinking the same thing!! Very eerie. I think it is very possible that if the virus (if embedded in bird/animal dung) goes airborne via burning or windy conditions or whatever, it could go straight to the lungs. It seems to me that if a hundred people got sick the same day as in that army camp in Kansas in 1918, they probably were exposed at the same time. I can picture all of that chicken/duck poop containing H5N1 on the ground in Indonesia drying and becoming airborne.

gardner – at 11:45

Fire doesn’t neutralize the virus? Weren’t they recommending people dispose of culled chickens by burning and burying them? How long would the virus stay active in manure? The manure would have to be relatively old and dry in order to burn it.

Or am I just confused about all this again?

Goju – at 11:49

I heard cockroaches “clean up” after chickens

crfullmoon – at 11:52

(I thought some sanitation person came in the forum once -to warn people thinking they could burn their biohazard waste?- who said incineration had to be done just right or some of the virus/particles of stuff would get lifted by the heat, and dispersed; not all would be burnt.)

Commonground – at 15:44

http://tinyurl.com/y3lluk
Some interesting statistics at a site I stumbled upon. Here’s an excerpt:

With the addition of this case of West Java continued to occupy the highest position in the number of positive cases of bird flu, with 24 cases of Bird Flu, 19 including dying.
The second position, the Special Capital District of Jakarta (18 cases, 16 died). The most case third et cetera, Banten (8 cases, 7 died), North Sumatra (7 cases, 6 died), East Java (5 cases, 3 died), Central Java (4 cases, 3 died), Lampung (3 cases of the life), West Sumatra (2 cases of the life), South Sulawesi (1 case died).

According to the data of the Bird Flu Command Post, the Directorate General of the Control of the Illness and environmental Sanitation, till October 16 2006, had data collected on it by 752 cases that had been suspected of suffering Bird Flu, 539 including being proven not Bird Flu. Bird flu was the illness that very deadly (highly pathogenic) for humankind, with the death rate (CFR) 76,39%. The Bird Flu illness (Avian influenza) usually attacked the poultry but could spread from the poultry to humankind. This illness has been contagious to the poultry in 30 provinces in Indonesia, because that the risk of the spread to humankind was tall enough.

[Comment: I come up with 213 after you take away the 539 proven not Bird Flu. Take the 55 deaths from that, and then the 5 “Cases of the Life”, and I come up with 153. So what’s up with the 153? If 539 were proven “not Bird Flu”, 153 people have it? But then wouldn’t they be “Cases of the Life”????]

pugmom – at 18:29

As usual, the numbers don’t make sense. If you add up all the positive cases in the provinces you come up with 72. This is not even close to the 213 they cite. I think what they are saying is: 752 suspected, 539 proven not BF, 213 still suspected but unable to prove positive, may have died of other causes, or not had samples or autopsies done. It seems they are able to prove they didn’t have it (as they still have living bodies to sample), much easier, than to prove they did have it (died too quickly, tests failed).

FloridaGirlat 19:01

Commonground – at 15:44

That is curious…. However, The WHO chart has the other numbers i.e. Cases = 72 / Died = 55

Maybe, those other cases were just cases they treated with tamiflu…. and suspected cases being proven not Bird flu (those which actually tested neg ) and the rest were just suspected but not tested.

Michelle in OK – at 23:36

Indonesia Summary - Updated as of 10/26/06

Cases DiscussedJun-06Jul-06Aug-06Sep-06Oct-06Total
Died, no test results2243415
Died, tested positive4323315
Other tested positive013105
Symptoms, tests pending42463827117
Tested negative062619758
Totals1014816441210

27 October 2006

pugmom – at 01:13

Eating carcass meat that may be infected, and reciting of practices used to disguise dead carcass meat. Central Java. dated 10–27–06. http://tinyurl.com/yn29vu

 Purworejo (KR) - After the disclosure of the trade in beef glonggongan in a market in the Purworejo Regency, was indicated carcass meat also cleared this territory.

Nevertheless did not yet have strong proof about the circulation of the carcass meat.

 ”Tapi I suspected had carcass meat that was sold in the Purworejo territory, despite the relative amount sedikit,” clear the Section Head Agriculture and Purworejo Regency Livestock Breeding Ir H Akhmad Fauzi Ma to KR recently.

In fact according to Fauzi, this carcass meat was good the chicken and cattle, really found it easy to be known, because besides being smelly him was different, also his colour was rather bluish.

”Namun the traders also did not lose cunning him. Usually the meat is given dye (turmeric) so as his colour rather kekuning-kuningan,” he added. The trade in this carcass meat did not close the possibility of happening to chicken. That more was worried again, if the chicken carcass that was sold that came from the chicken was sick, that did not close the possibility also was attacked by the virus Avian influenza (AI) or bird flu. ”Selama this was rare the breeder that terjangkit bird flu, but that was affected precisely konsumen,” Fauzi words.

Likewise with the trade in meat glonggongan that succeeded in being seized by the team of the combination gazed at previous Lebaran, did not close the possibility of the cattle disembelih after dying because of being forced to drink water as much as possible. ”Biasa him before disembelih, cattle were forced to drink as much as possible so as his meat weight meningkat,” he said while added, as a result of being forced to drink as much as possible that did not close the possibility of the cattle of dying during afterwards disembelih.

With the existence pedagangan carcass meat and cattle glonggongan this, the agricultural Service and Livestock Breeding according to Fauzi, ask for would the existence of the rule that permitted the relevant service to check each trade in meat. ”Ini in order to guarantee the health for konsumen,” he stated. Because as far as this is concerned according to Fauzi, the illness threat from the carcass meat was very big, like bird flu, because of the consumer did not know whether that carcass meat or the healthy chicken.

”Maka we made a plea to the community in order to be careful. Not menyembelih the chicken that has died. Because of being proven has been that tertular bird flu as a result of consuming chicken that terinveksi flu. Necessarily consumer protection, only should not want to seek a profit him sendiri,” flat Fauzi.

comment: I certainly hope this article does not say that the cattle are force fed water, and then disembowelled before killing them to make them look plumper. I hope it is translation error, but I kinda don’t think so.

worrywart – at 01:21

Pugmom-yes-that’s probably what they meant. Last year I heard here locally, that someone at a 4H fair , put a hose down their calf’s throat and force fed them water, so it would weigh more at weight time. they got caught, but still I find it sick, sick, sick….

Commonground – at 06:11

Nothing new to report today - 10/27.
Metrotvnews.com, Jakarta: the Region Lenteng Great, Southern Jakarta experienced the clean water difficulty resulting from dry long this year. Several citizens were forced to queue in the citizen’s other house that his well was still having water. According to the citizen, the drought has happened since last July. Several citizens admitted to being forced to buy the mineral water for the everyday requirement as cooking, in fact usually the citizen always made use of well water. The drought in the region Lenteng Great this happened almost equitable. The further citizen really hoped had help from the government because water has in their well been dry although they increased the depth of the well.
http://tinyurl.com/y49kdh

InKyat 06:41

Anybody know anything about the fate of the Jakarta Post? No news and no Jakarta Post seem odd.

Commonground – at 08:25

Inky - at 06:41 - the Jakarta Post isn’t one of my sources that I track.

JWB – at 08:53

InKy

I sure hope it’s not the beginning of a news blackout.

Pixie – at 09:03

InKy - I haven’t been able to get the Jakarta Post to load either. However, most of the other Indonesian news sources have barely updated any of their headlines for 5 days so, so let’s not worry too much until everybody gets back to the city and back to work.

28 October 2006

Commonground – at 06:17

No new patients to report today.

Influentia2 – at 06:43

Halo CG

I don’t think we should be to concerned yet about the lack of news. I would take this lull to prepare for my move. No new patients until known otherwise is good news. I plan on doing some baking and working on my preps during the lull. It will probably come to an end soon enough. I hope everything is going smoothly for you concerning your move.

Commonground – at 07:13

Halo Influentia2! Yes, I’ve missed all my buddies here on this thread. I’m packing and packing and wondering…..why do I need all this “stuff”? But I’ll lug it to NH anyway. I was looking at some little baby shoes I saved from the kids. About 4 inches long. Sooo sweet. Going down memory lane…… I will never believe we haven’t had any new patients, I just think we haven’t heard of any. Some newspapers are dating back to October 20th with nothing since. Then….there was that article above here somewhere, that stated the Journalists are getting paid “gifts” to only report “positive, good news”. That really bummed me out. So, we can all take a much needed emotional break, but I still feel nothing has changed for H5N1….it’s still out there.

Pixie – at 08:59

It has occurred to me that some here think that if Indonesia has enjoyed this break in H5N1 attention, they may be thinking “why not just continue the news blackout?” But I don’t think that will happen.

Indonesia has AI throughout most of the country (and it’s a big country). Their people and birds really are becoming ill and dying. In response, they are trying to mount an informational campaign to alert people to the dangers.

If they suddenly decide to keep AI and human H5N1 infections out of the headlines, all of Indonesia will then decide that the problem is over. Any attempts at an informational campaign will be met with the response “what bird flu?”

So, they are pretty well stuck with continuing to report both bird deaths and the danger H5N1 is presenting to humans. They can’t educate and hide the facts at the same time, so they are pretty much stuck with having to resume news coverage where we last left off. They do have a real problem, and they do have to alert their people.

The only new wrinkle in the mix is the new Bird Flu Information Guy, Mr. Ruesin. But his spin (and he is spinning) I think is mostly meant for the international audience. Fortunately, we speak ToggleText here and translate the local Indo papers so we will always have far more info than Mr. Ruesin is officially admitting to.

Pixie – at 15:38

Comment: It’s baaaaaaaaaack! Bird flu has attacked hundreds of chickens in the Central Java triangle where we last saw our latest suspected human cases. They have buried the infected chickens, but it seems they were sent into the local river by flooding. They have apparently eaten the remaining chickens for the Lebaran holiday, as we feared some might be tempted to do.

CENTRAL JAVA

Oct. 28, 2006 at 09:17 / http://tinyurl.com/ykbhkr

Hundreds of tails of the Chicken in the Village of the shavings Elephant (Gajah Asahan) died Suddenly

It was estimated that hundreds of tails of the citizen’s chicken Desagajah, the Series Subdistrict of the shavings Hall died suddenly.

The local citizen expected the chicken that died that was affected by bird flu.

Amir Siagian to SIB, on Thursday (26/10) said, since Wednesday (25/10) several tails of the nonpedigreed chicken that was allocated for lebaran died suddenly, in fact beforehand the chicken that indeed disengaja diternak since the last 7 months healthy, but suddenly the chicken as being not powerful, his cock’s comb turned blue then his mouth issued the foam.

The citizen in the village mentioned the chicken illness “peokkon”.

The chicken that still was living walaupn has been sick was cut off to be consumed, because of from long before also the chicken that be hit by dented could be eaten.

However the chicken that has died was buried and was also a part was swept away to the river because the river water overflowed, explained Amir Siagian.

Apart from the chicken belonging to Amir, the citizen’s other chicken also already many that died suddenly. Estimated, since Tuesday (24/10) till Thursday (26/10) already hundreds of tails of the chicken died suddenly.


Encarta map of Gajah, Central Java: http://tinyurl.com/y376rk

Pixie – at 15:52

Comment: I have the village of Bantang as being in Central Java, just to the west of Semarang. The other recent outbreaks in Gajah (above) are to the northeast of Semarang.

CENTRAL JAVA

Oct. 28, 2006 at 9:06 / http://tinyurl.com/ymhzoe

Suspected of being infected by the AI Virus, Seratusan the Poultry belonging to the Batang Kuis Citizen died Suddenly

Batang Kuis (SIB) In the last two weeks, seratusan the tail of the poultry (the chicken and duck-red) property of the community of several villages in Batang Kuis died suddenly it was suspected was infected by the virus Avian influenza (AI) that popular was acknowledged as Bird Flu.

The sudden death several poultry belonging to the citizen, first happened in Sugiharjo Village and the Sidodadi Village at the beginning of October.

Because the death of the chicken livestock aroused suspicion, the citizen reported him to the village head and the sub-district head. Got information from the citizen, the Sub-district Head Batang Kuis Dedy Maswardy S. Sos delivered to the Deli Serdang Livestock Breeding Service to be had action taken against him lanjuti after beforehand did the survey to the location gave various directives to the citizen.

The official of Deli Serdang Livestock Breeding of the Service carried out spraying in the Sugiharjo Village and the Sidodadi Village that were suspected by the chicken livestock belonging to the citizen in the two villages terindikasi the virus AI. Apart From in the two villages, as efforts anticipated spread him the AI virus to the contiguous village, the official also carried out spraying in the Merry Star Village and the Batang Kuis Village the Week.

No matter what was done by the Deli Serdang Livestock Breeding Service as efforts anticipated spread him the AI virus by doing spraying apparently did not produce results.

Proven, during the last one weeks at least 60 tails more the chicken livestock belonging to villagers Bintangmeriah and the Village of Batang Kuis died suddenly.

Like that was experienced by Asnah, the citizen of the Village Ii the Batang Kuis Village the Week, several tails of his livestock of the property chicken that originally was seen healthy and fresh suddenly died suddenly. Even so the chicken belonging to Eni, M. Yusuf, Rita, Syaiful as well as Pardi, on Wednesday (25/10) and on Thursday (26/10) died suddenly.

The Batang Kuis sub-district head Dedy Maswardy SSos that was contacted on Friday (27/10) through the telephone selular him justified the existence of the report about the death of several chicken livestock belonging to villagers Bintangmeriah and Batang Kuis the Week suddenly that was expected terindikasi the virus AI. the Batang Kuis Sub-district Head also confirmed if several days ago several chicken livestock belonging to villagers Sugiharjo and the Village of Sidodadi died suddenly it was suspected terindikasi the virus AI. Was efforts to anticipate spread him the AI virus, the side of the Livestock Breeding Service carried out spraying in the two villages.

The BIKT head (the Communication Body, Information and Telematika) Deli Serdang Zainuddin the March SSos that was contacted through the telephone cellular him really regretted the Section Head’s attitude Livestock Breeding Ir Zulkifli Nasution that did not want to lift his MOBILE PHONE when being contacted although his MOBILE PHONE was active.

Encarta map: Bantang: http://tinyurl.com/y892a2 Encarta map: Sugiharjo village: http://tinyurl.com/vusta

Influentia2 – at 16:48

Commonground 7:13 You are so right about needing a break. I was hoping I could reach you and make sure you got my apology this morning. I am so sorry I misunderstood your post. I am a dork that way sometimes. I get wound up over this thread it is like my kids sometimes, I am overprotective. My English translations/interpretations are obviously rusty. I had to spell the word diarrhea in English the other day and I could only remember how to spell it in Indonesian. I told the DH I have read about more diare in Indo than English for so long I cannot spell it in English anymore. I told him I should run over to that E-coli thread and I could probably find the word there in English since I didn’t have spell check just to be sure.

I remember moving about 6 years ago and looking at old baby shoes too. Be careful with those I lost one. I see Pixie is already hot on the trail too. I looked this morning and am not seeing much except lots of vehicle accidents.

Going to a local football game and maybe I can get some searching done when I get back. I’m sure Pugmom will show up soon and be hot on the trail along with Pixie and you too.

OBTW, I asked my son today for a case of canned meat for my birthday (I’m thinking what a good way to add to preps)and he asked me if I had ever heard of those people who wear tin foil hats! I think he may be wondering about his mother!

Influentia2 – at 20:51

bump

29 October 2006

Pixie – at 00:33

Comment: A new suspect H5N1 case in Aceh, M (39), who is now in intensive isolation at RSUP the Pilgimr Adam the Owner in Medan. He had been slaughtering chickens when the rest of the flock died suddenly.

ACEH/MEDAN

Saturday 28 October 2006 - 00:24:51 / http://tinyurl.com/ydmpfk

Was finished Motong the Chicken, the Acehinese Citizen Susfect Flu BurungUsai cut off the chicken, a man was 39 years old was stated susfect the bird flu virus’‘’.

‘The man from this Aceh currently gets the maintenance intensively in Longing space of A Ii RSUP the Pilgrim Adam the Medan Owner.

That was said by Deputy Director Pelayanan Medik and Education RS Adam the Medan Owner, Dr M Nur rasyid Lubis SpB to Global, on last Thursday (26/10). According to him, this patient entered RSUP H Adam the Owner, on Wednesday (25/10) with the temperature of the high body achieved 38 levels celsius.

“Currently the man that was going on holiday to your house him in Medan, still underwent the maintenance intensively in space isolir,” stated Rasyid.

According to Rasyid, casualties admitted to beforehand could cut off the kept chicken his relatives. Suddenly the other chicken died suddenly before could be cut off.

Nevertheless, added Rasyid, was based on results of the medical inspection, as far as this is concerned did not yet show if this patient terjangkit the virus H5N1. However like that the medical team will check further this patient.

Pixie – at 00:38

Serang bird flu 15 regencies and the City in North Sumatra

Friday 29 September 2006 - 00:45:27 / http://tinyurl.com/y5pwo9

The death of the poultry that was caused by the virus Avian influenza (AI) to the poultry attacked 15 regencies and the North Sumatran Province City.

Namely Simalungun, Tebing Tinggi, Dairi, Taput, Deliserdang, Medan, Serdangbedagai, Nias, Samosir, Binjai, Langkat, Tapsel, Tanjungbalai, Humbanghasundutan and the Karo Regency.

As for the poultry kind that was attacked, namely the chicken, birds puyuh (quail) and the turkey.

Jumah the poultry that died resulting from terjangkit him the bird flu virus during 2005 reached 22,995 tails. To this 2006 till September reached 339 thousand tails.

johnO – at 02:41

Oh my. Still holding breath…

Commonground – at 06:24

Influentia2 - at 16:48 - no worries. Thank you for trying to get in touch w/me. Pugmom has my e-mail. Happy Birthday, and many more to come! :-)

Commonground – at 06:24

No news to report today - 10/29.

pugmom – at 08:28

here is all the information I have collected today from my sources: (I am summarizing it it one post, as easier for me.)

New Case: death of 5 yo boy, named M. Pious from Tarakan, Kalimantan see below!! Tarakan is an island off Kalimantan---the first case in Kalimantan!!!http://tinyurl.com/vj5tc

 On Sunday, October 29 2006

the Patient Suspect Bird Flu died Before entering RSUD, could hold the Chicken died TARAKAN-Community Tarakan and the area in the north apparently must guard against various illnesses that often attacked and caused the death for humankind.

Last Friday (27/10), Herma Fadiansyah, the child was 4 years that lived in the area old was as Bent, died because of the attack of Dengue Fever Dengue Fever (DBD).

Currently ‘’‘the news from RSUD Tarakan mentioned, last Friday (15/10), one patient suspect bird flu also died in space of Intensive Care the Unit (ICU). Unfortunately death information suspect bird flu that had a name M. Pious (5) this, just was opened by the RSUD Tarakan side yesterday. The death of the citizen A the Buji Frog that was expected because suspect this bird flu’‘’, was sent by Supratman SE, RSUD Tarakan public relations to the Tarakan Radar the afternoon yesterday. According to Supratman, from the sign and the characteristics that were found by the team of the doctor, strong the assumption that M. Pious died because terjangkit the bird flu virus, Avian influenza (AI). ¡°Berdasarkan the doctor’s research that studied concerning the characteristics of the patient suspect bird flu, Pious terjangkit the illness tersebut,¡± he explained.

Nevertheless, RSUD until this was still being waiting for results of the inspection of Litbangkes Jakarta. The RSUD side sent excrement and blood from casualties to Litbangkes Jakarta. ¡°Hasil him will come in weeks of ini,¡±kata Supratman. According to him, the citizen A this Frog, since last Wednesday (13/10) came to RSUD. at That Time M. Pious langsug was treated in UGD. But because of his condition quite critical, then the team of the doctor afterwards moved him to ICU to get the maintenance that more intensive. After getting the maintenance for 2 days in ICU, on Friday (15/10) around struck 09. 00 Wita M. Pious finally died.

¡°Dia only two days were treated in ICU, then died, ¡° Yatman words. According to Yatman, from the data that was gathered by the RSUD side, evidently M. Pious indeed had the story once body contact with the poultry. Moreover was named, the family M. Pious indeed memilihara the poultry, that some last time before M. Pious entered RSUD, kept chickens his family was sickly until dying. ________________________________________________________________________ Blurb on Tarakan: From Wikipedia, the free encyclopediaJump to: navigation, searchTarakan Elevation 318 m (1,043 feet) Location East Kalimantan, Indonesia Coordinates 3¡Æ21¡ÇN 117¡Æ34¡ÇE Type Pyroclastic cones Tarakan is an island in the East Kalimantan, Indonesia. It is a marshy island situated in the eastern Celebes Sea, off the northeastern coast of Borneo. The island occupies an area of 117 square miles (303 km©÷).Tarakan Lamo and Tarakan Itji (large and small Tarakan) have well-formed volcanic summit craters 800 and 500 m in diameter and 160 and 125 m deep, respectively. They are located near the shore of Galela Bay NE of Dukono volcano. The cinder cones lie between Galela Bay and Lake Galela, whose bottom lies below sea level. Supriatna (1980) mapped Tarakan as a basaltic volcano of Holocene age.Tarakan was the site of battles between Allied and Japanese forces in 1942 and 1945. ________________________________________________________________________ This is on Dengue, but am relaying info, as it is same area as above. Also same link.

On Sunday, October 29 2006 already 8 patients DBD died three people Still Dirawat

 TARAKAN

-Dengue Fever Dengue Fever (DBD) that entered RSUD Tarakan has been worrying enough. In this year, RSUD Tarakan recorded the number of patients DBD that entered RSUD totalling 185 people. This number was higher from the data that was recorded in the Health Service totalling 183 people. From the number, as many as 8 people were among them stated died. The figure was totalling 185 people received from the Medical Record number (Mr) RSUD. eight people that was stated meninggaln that was known suffered DBD in the DSS category (Shock Syndrome Dengue Fever). The head Mr, Srimani that was met on last Saturday (28/10) said, in general this DBD patient could be only treated between 3 and one week. The available number at this time it was estimated still was improving. ¡°Kasus this, always was every time bulannya,¡± obviously him. STILL three people In the meantime, till yesterday still RSUD was still treating 3 DBD patients in Jasmine space (maintenance space of the child). The three patients namely Akiro Rafael (6) Street P Antasari that entered RSUD since Thursday (26/10) struck 20. 05 Wita. Radea (5), the citizen A the Buji Frog that entered RSUD on Friday (27/10). Whereas one him still was named Inzhaghi Fathana (8) that beralamatkan in Markoni RT 8 this entered RSUD on Thursday (26/10) around struck 18. 30 Wita. ¡°Dia could be feverish and was treated the house a day. But because hot him did not descend, immediately was brought by us to RSUD,¡± said wrong seroang his family’s member. ________________________________________________________________________ article dated 10–29–06 out of Java: http://tinyurl.com/yxncry

Surabaya - Surabaya Post Enter the rain season on the end of this year, the case of big possibility bird flu will develop bigger compared to for the dry season. The cold climate became the virus habitat H5N1 that became the cause of this illness, so as his spreading was faster. ¡°Virus bird flu that happened in Indonesia was different. They could have adapted to the environment, so as that necessarily in their dry season inactive, precisely menyebar,¡± the expert’s words in bird flu from the Medical Faculty the Unair Animal that also the member of the National Commission of the team of the expert (Komnas) Bird Flu, C. A Nidom, on Sunday (29/10). This spreading was he thought abnormal compared to other countries that had experienced the same case, that was seen from the number of bird flu sufferers who reached 55 patients. The number to that biggest in the world. Beforehand ¡°rekor¡± that was held by Vietnam, with the number of sufferers reached 42 people. Apart from because his habitat was the cold temperature, the handling of the government still could not till at this time prevent the spreading of the virus H5N1. The government was more focussed in the extermination of the poultry that was in the settlement. In fact, continued Nidom, the better method was the restructuring of livestock breeding, not the extermination of the poultry animal. ¡°Cukup by penning all the wandering chicken, afterwards made the centre of the pen that did not become one with pemukiman,¡± said he. He did not agree the pattern of the government that always destroyed the poultry, like that in one area was gotten suspect bird flu. The matter is, was not possible the virus H5N1 that was in the poultry immediately could infect the human body. ¡°Harus had the animal as his adaptor, that is mamalia,¡± he said. There were two reasons why that had difficulty happening. Firstly, the place adhered him the virus or recipient between humankind and the poultry has been different. If humankind was known alpha 2,6, the poultry only alpha 2,3. So also with the temperature of the two living creatures kinds. If the poultry achieved approximately 41 Celsius levels, humankind of only 36 Celcius levels. ¡°Pasti him needed the intermediary’s animal so as his virus could adhere to manusia,¡± said he. It was for that purpose, he at this time researched 400 examples or sample cat blood. ________________________________________________________________________

article out of Batang Kuis, North Sumatra: chicken die-offs in 2 villages reported: dated 10–28–06 http://tinyurl.com/ymhzoe

Suspected of being infected by the AI Virus, Seratusan the Poultry belonging to the Batang Kuis Citizen died Suddenly Written by Oct editorial staff 28, 2006 at 09:06 Batang Kuis (SIB) in two last weeks, seratusan the tail of the poultry (the chicken and duck-red) property of the community of several villages in Batang Kuis died suddenly it was suspected was infected by the virus Avian influenza (AI) that popular was acknowledged as Bird Flu. The sudden death several poultry belonging to the citizen, first happened in the Sugiharjo Village and the Sidodadi Village at the beginning of October. Because the death of the chicken livestock aroused suspicion, the citizen reported him to the village head and the sub-district head. Got information from the citizen, the Sub-district Head Batang Kuis Dedy Maswardy S. Sos delivered to the Deli Serdang Livestock Breeding Service to be had action taken against him lanjuti after beforehand did the survey to the location gave various directives to the citizen. The official of Deli Serdang Livestock Breeding of the Service carried out spraying in the Sugiharjo Village and the Sidodadi Village that were suspected by the chicken livestock belonging to the citizen in the two villages terindikasi the virus AI. Apart From in the two villages, as efforts anticipated spread him the AI virus to the contiguous village, the official also carried out spraying in the Merry Star Village and the Batang Kuis Village the Week. No matter what was done by the Deli Serdang Livestock Breeding Service as efforts anticipated spread him the AI virus by doing spraying apparently did not produce results. Proven, during the last one weeks at least 60 tails more the chicken livestock belonging to villagers Bintangmeriah and the Village of Batang Kuis died suddenly. Like that was experienced by Asnah, the citizen of the Village Ii the Batang Kuis Village the Week, several tails of his livestock of the property chicken that originally was seen healthy and fresh suddenly died suddenly. Even so the chicken belonging to Eni, M. Yusuf, Rita, Syaiful as well as Pardi, on Wednesday (25/10) and on Thursday (26/10) died suddenly. The Batang Kuis sub-district head Dedy Maswardy SSos that was contacted on Friday (27/10) through the telephone selular him justified the existence of the report about the death of several chicken livestock belonging to villagers Bintangmeriah and Batang Kuis the Week suddenly that was expected terindikasi the virus AI. ________________________________________________________________________ Dead chickens in Kisara, Sumatera Utara (Northern Sumatra) dated 10–28–06. http://tinyurl.com/ykbhkr

Written by Oct editorial staff 28, 2006 at 09:17 the Range (SIB) was estimated hundreds of tails of the citizen’s chicken Desagajah, the Series Subdistrict of the shavings Hall mati suddenly. The local citizen expected the chicken that died that was affected by bird flu.

Amir Siagian to SIB, on Thursday (26/10) said, since Wednesday (25/10) several tails of the nonpedigreed chicken that was allocated for lebaran died suddenly, in fact beforehand the chicken that indeed disengaja diternak since the last 7 months healthy, but suddenly the chicken as being not powerful, his cock’s comb turned blue then his mouth issued the foam. The citizen in the village mentioned the chicken illness ¡°peokkon¡±. The chicken that still was living walaupn has been sick was cut off to be consumed, because of from long before also the chicken that be hit by dented could be eaten. However the chicken that has died was buried and was also a part was swept away to the river because the river water overflowed, explained Amir Siagian. Apart from the chicken belonging to Amir, the citizen’s other chicken also already many that died suddenly. Estimated, since Tuesday (24/10) till Thursday (26/10) already hundreds of tails of the chicken died suddenly. ________________________________________________________________________

Dead chickens in Indramayu, Jawa Barat (West Java): dated 10–27–06. Sorry, lost link (forgot to file it in my word program)

Indrapura, (the Analysis) Hundreds of tails of the chicken livestock belonging to the community in several villages in the Air Putih Subdistrict shavings, died suddenly it was suspected terjangkit virud bird flu. According to Saidik R, on Thursday night (26/10), his property chicken that died suddenly that bukam the thoroughbred chicken. His afternoon looked like his chicken was still fit as a fiddle and at night died suddenly. Even so sifted belonging to Rajamin was the Saidik neighbour in the Village VII the High Land Village. All the chickens belonging to Rajiman died suddenly and not there are those that remained. Information was received, apart from in the High Land Village, the livestock the Red chicken, the Limit, Sukaraja and the Young Cape of the community of the Land Village also many that died suddenly. The owners of the chicken only submitted and took the attitude buried his chicken livestock that died that. For the inhabitants that his livestock did not yet die, asked for help of the official of the animal by giving the special vaccination.

comment: So in the last 2 days we now have new chicken deaths in central Java, western Java, 2 new places in Sumatra, one new human case in Aceh which is the first case in NAD, 1 death of a 5 yo boy on an island off Kalimantan, which is the first case in Kalimantan. Ramadhan has ended.

Pixie – at 08:46

There is a large policy changed being urged in Pugmom’s Surabaya Post article at 8:28http://tinyurl.com/yxncry.

Dr. C.A. Nidom, maybe the top scientist dealing with H5N1 in Indonesia, is saying that he now disagrees with the practice of culling chickens when AI was found in a flock.

He is stating outright here that there is no point in doing that because the virus found in the chickens and the virus found in the human infections just does not match. In his view, the humans are not contracting H5N1 from the chickens.

Dr. Nidomm states that because of different receptors (2,6 vs. 2,3) and the temperature differences that the virus prefers, indicate instead that there must be an intermediary animal (mammalian) host. Dr. Nidom says that he has tested 400 cat samples in an attempt to find this mammalian host.

Should the authorities take Dr. Nidom’s findings seriously, the entire approach to H5N1 in Indonesia will have to be rethought.

(Dr.)C. A Nidom… He did not agree the pattern of the government that always destroyed the poultry, like that in one area was gotten suspect bird flu. The matter is, was not possible the virus H5N1 that was in the poultry immediately could infect the human body. ¡°Harus had the animal as his adaptor, that is mamalia,¡± he said. There were two reasons why that had difficulty happening. Firstly, the place adhered him the virus or recipient between humankind and the poultry has been different. If humankind was known alpha 2,6, the poultry only alpha 2,3. So also with the temperature of the two living creatures kinds. If the poultry achieved approximately 41 Celsius levels, humankind of only 36 Celcius levels. ¡°Pasti him needed the intermediary’s animal so as his virus could adhere to manusia,¡± said he. It was for that purpose, he at this time researched 400 examples or sample cat blood.

pugmom – at 08:49

correction: last article above should read: dead chickens in Indrapura, Jawa Barat (not Indramayu).

Wolf – at 08:57

Pixie – at 08:46

This is good news. Niman’s been saying this for months. There have been discussions here on the Wiki also of a mammalian vector for some while.

disgruntled posited it was ‘two legged and 2 stroked’ as I recall… hope disgruntled returns for comment.

Okieman – at 09:02

pugmom – at 08:28

I’ve been wondering when Kalimantan would start reporting suspect bird flu cases. I’ve been checking their news sites off and on for months…nothing. I’ve felt like there was something there but it was not being recognized or worse yet, covered up. I wouldn’t be surprised if we start hearing of past cases there that went unreported.


Commonground – at 06:24

I might suggest indicating what portion of Indonesia you are looking at when you post that you have “no news to report”. You are doing East Java, right? I just wanted to make that suggestion because I have misread your meaning until now. Maybe its just me that has made that mistake. I appreciate all the effort you and the other newshounds put into this. Thanks.

Pixie – at 09:07

pugmom - at 8:28 - on the first case of H5N1 in Kalimantan:

I think it is pretty clear that if you want to get your sick child the very best of medical attention in Indonesia, you’d better tell them that he was recently holding a chicken that died.

There is no mention of testing the other patients, including more children, who are also in the same Kalimantan hospital as the 5yo that died, for H5N1. Because they made no mention of any contact with chickens, they are assumed to have dengue.

Unfortunately, we reported on the Indonesia XVI thread on 10/16 that there have recently been thousands of dengue deaths in Kalimantan. At that point, Kalimantan was considered to be one of the few provinces which was free of H5N1 in poultry, so no testing for H5N1 was done on patients presenting with dengue-like symptoms. Now a 5yo boy in Kalimantan has died of apparent H5N1.


Thousands of West Kalimantan citizens were attacked by Dengue Fever 16/10/2006 07:16 / Liputtan6 / http://tinyurl.com/y3vb4e

‘’The plague of dengue fever raged in Pontianak and the other area in West Kalimantan as far as Ahad (15/10). Not not all that 1,200 casualties that most children were treated since the last two months. Moreover 15 of the patients died. One of the hospitals that treated the dengue fever patient in Pontianak was RS Saint Antonius. The number of numbers of the patient’s casualties made the hospital biggest in this city was overwhelmed’‘.

Commonground – at 09:10

Hi Okieman - at 09:02 - I used to be just Sumatra, but now I go over 17 differnt newspapers/websites every morning from all over Indonesia. Pugmom gave me a great list, and she has been taking care of the rest of her list. Right, Pugmom? I was also thinking, if things get heated with finding new patients, it would be extremely helpful if we all could comment New Case and then put the Region after it…”N. Sumatra, E. Java., W. Java. South Sulawesi’‘’. I know sometimes even the articles I post, I can’t figure out exactly where to put them, then I ask, and everybody helps me out!!!

Pixie – at 09:14

Hallo everyone! Back to work, no?

Yes, CG, I agree. I try to put the area in bold caps at the top of my posts so that if we later have questions about a case, or are later trying to find linkages or clusters in an area, the post is easier to find. The idea of putting the comment “new case” in caps is also a great one and I’ll do that from now on (not that we expect there to be any more new cases or anything).

Okieman – at 09:23

Commonground – at 09:10 Thanks. The more eyes all over Indonesia the better. Posting the province is a good idea.

Today is map day once again. I’ve been doing them every ten days. My intention is to have one completed and emailed to DemFromCT by the end of the day. I’ll have to get Michelle’s latest spreadsheet before I do though. This map will likely appear quite light in cases compared to the past maps. I will place a qualifying statement within the map to let the reader know that the end of the Ramadan holiday fell within the time period, and reporting appeared to be less than normal.

Commonground – at 09:40

Pixie at 09:07 - I couldn’t make any connections with Dengue and current Dengue patients in Kalimantan from your article. The only connection I’ve made are two victims from the same village: M. Pious (5) died 10/15 and Radea (5) entered 10/27, being treated, are both from A the Buji Frog.

Commonground – at 09:43

Hey Team: Give yourselves all a pat on the back. I checked two other Forums - and we are the first ones to report this…… :-)

Pixie – at 09:53

Commonground - No, there are no direct links (names and cases) from the earlier dengue story. I just wanted to point out that all dengue-like cases in Kalimantan, and there have been a lot of them, have never been looked at for H5N1 becasue the area was assumed to be bird flu free.

There is a dengue connection in the same article that contains the story of the 5yo boy,M. Pious, who was the first H5N1 casualty we have on record in Kalimantan. I wonder if this 4yo boy who died in the same area was ever tested for H5N1. I doubt he was, if no one mentioned that he had recently handled chickens.

Last Friday (27/10), Herma Fadiansyah, the child was 4 years that lived in the area old was as Bent, died because of the attack of Dengue Fever Dengue Fever (DBD).

Commonground – at 09:59

Pixie, I’ve got a note on him (Herma). Should I put “Bent” as his village/area?

Pixie – at 10:15

Commonground - I can’t pull up Bent on a map, but my guess also is that that is the name of his village/area.

Commonground – at 10:30

Thanks Pixie

Influentia2 – at 11:12

Halo all, I have checked over 2 dozen links. Here is what I have in a nutshell:

attendance down at the Bird Park in Jakarta.

many motor vehicle accidents.

diare in East Java and Central Java. Could be anything not going to post Pugmom can if she wants to.

I don’t know that I am going to spend two more hours on 2 dozen more links until later today. Think I may go do some work around here this morning be back tonight.

Have a good one all.

Pixie – at 11:16

BANJARNEGARA

27 October 2006 / http://tinyurl.com/y2p9j8

DISNAKKAN Purbalingga did DISINFEKTAN; the Bird Flu Virus was expected from Banjarnegara

 Purbalingga (KR) - the Livestock Breeding Service and fisheries (Disnakkan) Purbalingga carried out spraying disinfektan against thousands of poultries in the local animal market, recently.

Apart from the poultry, the basket and good motor vehicles the wheel two and the wheel four also was scolded. The spraying, followed the discovery of the case of the death of dozens of chickens suddenly property of the citizen of the District Purbalingga Lor last week. ”Ayam the citizen that died suddenly that evidently was bought in the Purbalingga animal market. Because of this, we must anticipate him by doing spraying disinfektan so that the spreading of the bird flu virus not meluas,” the Purbalingga Regent Drs H Triyono Budi Sasongko MSi said to KR when monitoring directly the implementation of spraying disinfektan in the Purbalingga animal market.

Now, several traders and the citizen that by chance was in the animal market said, not few of his chickens died suddenly. A trader of villagers’s chicken Galuh the Bojongsari Subdistrict said, for a week, belasan the tail of his chicken died suddenly. Several other traders claimed, chickens that was sold in the Purbalingga animal market many that were brought in from the Banjarnegara area. The bird flu virus in Banjarnegara in fact has claimed human fatalities.

Stick up him the case of bird flu was in Purbalingga preceeded in the Village/the Bojongsari Subdistrict, last August. Belasan the citizen’s chicken died suddenly. Disnakkan carried out spraying disinfektan all over the village in the Bojongsari subdistrict and the Mrebet subdistrict, that were neighbours with Bojongsari. Last week, not less than 70 chickens belonging to the citizen RT 04 RW I the District Purbalingga Lor died suddenly.The sporadic death happened on the Tuesday (17/10) till Thursday (19/10). The head of the District Purbalingga Lor, Sutarno to the reporter mentioned, the death of the chicken suddenly this only did not happen in RT 04 then. Originally, the citizen not there are those that also reported to the local district. Just after cleared to RT 03, one of the citizens, Siti Khotijah reported him.

After getting the report from his citizen on Tuesday (17/10), Sutarno at once reported this incident to the Livestock Breeding Service and fisheries (Disnakkan) on the same day. But the service did not yet at once descend. Just after having the second report in the following day, Disnakkan descended to the field and immediately did the verification and did the test used rapid test against the chicken belonging to the citizen who died suddenly on Thursday (19/10). Results, the chicken died that was positive AI. Spraying disinfektan immediately was done all over the RW territory 1 that consist of four RT, on Thursday and on Friday. ”Kami got help took the form of the syringe and disinfektan from Disnakkan, and the power from our citizen, we at once carried out spraying to 4 RT in the territory of kami,” Sutarno said.

For anticipation of the spreading of this virus, continued Sutarno, the district side co-operated with the Subdistrict and twins’s Community Health Centre Kulon did counselling and the socialisation to the citizen in the chairman’s house RT 4 RW I. Fadilah Sudarto.

Pixie – at 11:25

Comment: This area, Grobogan, is right in the middle of the Central Javan peninsular triangle where we have seen recent human and sustpected cases.

Seven subdistricts of the Bird Flu Danger

27 October 2006 / http://tinyurl.com/y6qspa

 GROBOGAN (KR) - the Office and Grobogan Regency fisheries of the Livestock Breeding Service appointed seven from 19 available subdistricts in the area was indicated as the risky territory high was affected by the virus avian influenza (AI) or bird flu.  The seven subdistricts were Purwodadi, Brati, Toroh, Tawangharjo, Penawangan, Wirosari, and the Penawangan Subdistrict.   ”Ketujuh ‘this subdistrict must receive serious attention from the Regional Government.  Besides this the community must be on the alert if in his village was found had the chicken piaraan him died suddenly.  Don’t was postponed-postponed reported to the Service Peternakan,” the headword of the Animal and the Health of the Community of the Health Field Veteriner the Livestock Breeding Service and Grobogan Regency fisheries, drh Riyanto, when it was confirmed KR, just recently.  According to Riyanto, in fact be based on rapid test, only had four subdistricts that it was thought involved a high risk terjangkit the bird flu virus.  That is the Tawangharjo Subdistrict, Purwodadi, Grobogan and Wirosari.

However considering had emerged the assumption of the case of bird flu in several subdistricts, then his side memasukan him into the risky subdistrict high was affected by the bird flu virus.

Like in the Toroh Subdistrict of some time had emerged the case of the death of the poultry in large quantities and the death a citizen that was suspected resulting from terjangkit bird flu after his chicken died suddenly. Afterwards in the Penawangan Subdistrict and Brati also had emerged this assumption


Map of Grobogan, Central Java: http://tinyurl.com/tynnk

pugmom – at 12:31

Yes, I wander all over Indo, even though my original assignment was Cikelet. I have been waiting for Aceh and Kalimantan to come down with human cases. To those who like geography, Kalimantan is what we think of as “Borneo” (well, part of it) and here is a little blurb on Borneo:

Borneo is a large island in Southeast Asia that comprises Malaysia, Indonesia, and the sultanate of Brunei. The Indonesian part of Borneo comprises the southern two-thirds of the island’s area and is divided into the four provinces of West, Central, South and East Kalimantan. The Malaysian part comprises the northern coast and is divided into the states of Sarawak and Sabah. The tiny nation of Brunei is wedged between these two Malaysian states.

Borneo is the third largest island in the world, after Greenland and New Guinea. Its population is roughly 16 million, of whom 12 million reside in Indonesia (Kalimantan) and 4 million reside in Sarawak and Sabah. Brunei’s population is 300,000. The island’s hilly terrain, unnavigable rivers, and thick forests deterred industrial development until recently, and as a result Borneo’s population is comparatively low. By comparison, the neighboring island of Java - with an area 1/5th that of Borneo’s - is home to over 16 times as many people (130 million).

pugmom – at 16:37

Okieman—weren’t you the one keeping your eye on Papua?? I have not been doing that.

pugmom – at 17:01

“Sensational” bird flu in Boyolali, Central Java: dated 10–30–06. http://tinyurl.com/ya3z5b

 BOYOLALI (KR) - rumours of bird flu again sensational in Boyolali.

However results ‘rapid test’ related the death dozens of chickens suddenly in the Village Kiringan the Boyolali City Subdistrict, was ascertained not because of the bird flu virus. The side and Boyolali fisheries of the Livestock Breeding Service expected the death of dozens of chickens suddenly that was caused because of Newcastle disease or the ND virus.

 in the meantime, in relation to still was found by cases of bird flu in the area endemi, Red Cross Indonesia (PMI) the Centre ordered PMI the Boyolali Branch formed the Task Force (the Task Force) Bird Flu to help the government wage war on spread him the deadly virus in the area endemi in Boyolali.

According to the Section Head Livestock Breeding and Boyolali fisheries, Djoko Waluyo, not long after the Kiringan village community, Boyolali the City reported the existence of the case of the sudden death of dozens of tails of the chicken in the area, his side at once involved the team to do the inspection. “Dinas livestock breeding made use of the special implement to do the fast test or rapid test in the area that was suspected, but results of the negative, were not found by the existence of the flu virus burung,” Djoko words were contacted in his office, just recently. The incident, added Djoko, showed that the community had increasingly realised and been on the alert against the bird flu virus so as immediately reported and not mengonsumsi the chicken that died suddenly. His side suspected, the chicken that died suddenly that was caused because of Newcastle disease or the ND virus that also deadly, but did not endanger for humankind.

However, his side will always carry out special observation following the case of the death of the chicken suddenly in the area of these urban areas. Uptil now, added Djoko again, this territory not including the area endemi bird flu. Only, his location indeed off the region endemi, namely the Mojosongo Subdistrict that beforehand happened the bird flu attack until resulting in 2 people dying and hundreds of thousands of poultries died. While being separated, the secretary PMI the Boyolali Branch, Isjatto HS, said Red Cross Indonesia (PMI) the Boyolali branch formed the control Task Force of the plague of the bird flu illness.

 This task force was formed especially only in the serious area and was endemi the illness Avian influenza (AI) or bird flu.

According to him, for the Central Javan province, was gotten by 14 regencies/the city that was instructed to form the bird flu Task Force by PMI the branch in respectively this area, including Boyolali personally, Klaten, Sukoharjo, Solo, Wonogiri, Sragen, Karanganyar, Semarang, Kendal et cetera. Whereas for the other territory apart from Central Java, each one, West Java, East Java, the Yogyakarta Special District and Bali. “Untuk in PMI the Boyolali branch, this bird flu Task Force has been formed. His member was 8 orang,” said Isjatto. According to him, the task of this bird flu Task Force will eventually carry out the socialisation to the Boyolali community and will carry out the vaccination to deal with as well as prevented became an epidemic him the bird flu illness. “Namun in his implementation, we (PMI-red) always coordinated with the Regional Government Boyolali,” he added. In doing his social task, this Task Force will involve 200 volunteers. Before entering to the field, 200 volunteers would diimunisasi, so that not tertular the plague of the deadly illness.

Okieman – at 17:06

pugmom – at 16:37

Yea, that’s me. I’m waiting for the Monday newspapers to come out this evening. Hopefully it will be the regular lawlessness and not H5N1 in the news.

pugmom – at 17:23

More on death in Tarakan. Dated 10–30–06. http://tinyurl.com/yfya7e (note: they seem to be including fecal samples now. I haven’t read that anywhere before.)

 On Monday, October 30 2006

Dinkes was waiting for results of the TARAKAN-Emergence Inspection of two newest cases of the matter of the death of one casualty Dengue Fever Dengue Fever (DBD) and one patient suspect bird flu from the area of the Bulungan Regency, must receive serious attention from all the sides.

Especially for the case of the death of the patient suspect bird flu, although not yet having positive results of Litbangkes Jakarta, but at least all the elements including the community continued to increase health efforts of the environment and eradication efforts of the based illness these infectious diseases. This was revealed by the Section Head the Health of the Tarakan City Dr Khairul MKes.

One of the efforts that must be carried out according to him was to apply the healthy paradigm for health efforts dimasa came. The implementation of this healthy paradigm, he explained, one with the implementation of the sanitation clinic. With the sanitation clinic was expected to reinforce the task and the function of the Hospital (RS) and the community health centre so as to create the integrity in the eradication program of his main infectious diseases deadly illnesses like bird flu by empowering the community. “Kita in Dinkes, has done the step in anticipation. For example when accepting each good report from the Hospital, the community health centre and other health means, we immediately coordinated with the side terkait,” he explained. The co-ordination that was carried out, among them the taking sample the sufferer until making the report to Dinkes the province and Department of Health RI Jakarta. For Tarakan, he explained, as far as this is concerned just had the case that was reported, in relation to avian influenza (AI). “Kedua this case was to be accompanied with the taking of the sample of blood and excrement. Results, the suspicion terjangkit the bird flu not terbukti,” he stated. Whereas for the sample of blood and the patient’s excrement from A the Buji Frog that died in RSUD Tarakan that it was indicated was the patient suspect bird flu, till at this time was not yet accepted his report from Jakarta. Estimated, in this Sunday, results of the Litbangkes research will be accepted by Dinkes Tarakan. “Kemungkinan big results will be accepted in the week ini,”ujar him.

Influentia2 – at 19:12

I wasn’t going to post this but I thought it was odd mixed in there with the holiday travel accidents I have been seeing many of, I think this is the obscure article Pugmom mentioned I might find today. I am glad to see this article, at least around Madiun they have some awareness of the possibilities of all the people mixing about during the hloiday. Has anyone else seen anything like this?

http://tinyurl.com/y3rgs5

On Monday, October 30 2006 ended the Season went home, guarded against Bird FluNgawi - the official’s medical Readiness in the season went home lebaran not only in the matter helped road accident casualties.Anticipation various illnesses post the arrival many inhabitants from various outside areas also to kewaspadaaan.”Among them including guarding against the bird flu virus,” mdq said drg Hendro Wahyudiono, Director RSUD Dr Soeroto Ngawi, yesterday.Hendro said, although up until now the official report terjangkit him bird flu and the illness was dangerous and spread other was not yet available, but continued to have to be anticipated.His side has at this time had special space to handle infectious diseases including for the citizen who possibly was infected by bird flu.”That was frightened if being but being not realised by the community,” he said.Vigilance in this bird flu also was carried out because of the increase in interregional relations of various areas including from the returnees.His profit, until post-Lebaran yesterday the extraordinary and prominent case was not yet reported happened in the Ngawi territory.The “case not there is one that is extraordinary,” said Hendro.The official RSUD Dr Soeroto personally for the season went home this lebaran was not given a holiday.Hhanya their work schedule that was arranged.Hendro stated the jump of the patient has so far been still normal.Although having several accident casualties who needed the fast handling but could have been overcome.”We also received help of a hearse and an ambulance so as to help fast him the evacuation when being needed,” he said.

Commonground – at 19:20

Influentia2 - No, I haven’t seen anything like that. Huh. I don’t like the sounds of it…..but I’m glad they are aware, but it goes against the “chickens died in our backyard” theory.

Influentia2 – at 19:37

Yes CG it sure does something to the concept that a chicken is involved. I wonder if that was a major error in speaking on his part? Why would anyone even suggest that after every case has involved a chicken even if it was two weeks before they were ill as in the case of MaMa? Sure makes me wonder about things over there. There has been a lot of effort to establish the “chicken connection”. It also made me think that we are here on Flu Wiki and these people are in East Java thousands of miles away and we are all anticipating the same thing. That gives me the chills. Will be interesting in our searches to see if any new cases are returnees (Orang yang kembali) and find out where they returned from.

pugmom – at 19:44

Well, it sure sounds like an admission of H2H to me.

pugmom – at 19:52

Okieman—they sure have alot of HIV over in PNG, don’t they? Have you read all those reports? You wouldn’t think anywhere so remote would be plagued with HIV that badly. But I think everyone’s notion of PNG as a tropical wilderness filled with headhunters is wrong. From the very little I have seen in articles, it is now filled with a huge underclass, most on welfare, and with all the usual problems that go along with that. It reminds of the Australian Aborigines, and what a bad plight they find themselves in. Well, PNG sure surprised me.

Okieman – at 20:42

pugmom – at 19:52

Yes, they have a lot of HIV and a lot of troubles.

On a matter of watch what they do and not what they say, there is an article in the PNG newspaper The Post Courier that describes a 400 person ferry bound for Port Moresby not being fueled and delayed over a portion of the weekend near Lae. The link is below. I am going to post the article on the Australia, Melanesia and Micronesia Thread. I have debated with myself about posting it because it may be absolutely nothing. Read the article closely yourself and see. My point for posting it is that if something is beginning they would want to delay the arrival of this many people in Port Moresby, the capial of PNG.

On the other newspaper in PNG there is an article with a title mentioning a pastor collapsing and dying, but then the link does not work. It works for every other article on the page, but not that one. Could it be an article concerning a flu like illness? I don’t know. Again, all of this may be absolutely nothing. I may be just jumping at shadows.

Here is the link:

http://www.postcourier.com.pg/20061030/mohome.htm

Michelle in OK – at 22:23

Hi all. I’ve forwarded the spreadsheet to Dude and Okieman for posting and a map.

I listed two young children who died and were reported to be DBD patients for tracking purposes only. They are not included in the count column or in the summary I’ll post, since they were not stated as suspected bird flu.

It’s too bad there was news to report, but you all do a great job finding and bolding the information.

Michelle in OK – at 22:24

Indonesia Summary - Updated as of 10/29/06

Cases DiscussedJun-06Jul-06Aug-06Sep-06Oct-06Total
Died, no test results2243516
Died, tested positive4323315
Other tested positive013105
Symptoms, tests pending42463828118
Tested negative062619758
Totals1014816443212
Okieman – at 22:55

A new suspect case map has been made and sent to DemFromCT for posting. Thanks Dem.

Pixie – at 23:46

eegads..ToggleText is down

30 October 2006

Pixie – at 00:01

Comment: New Casein Makassar, but ToggleText is down and it’s hard to get clear details. It seems as if a new case, Ilya (22) is in intensive care at Wahidin Hospital.

Warga Jeneponto Diduga Terserang Flu Burung

30 Oct 2006 / http://tinyurl.com/ybb8sl

MAKASSAR— Ilyas, 22, Warga asal Jl Mairo Asramaya, Kabupaten Jenepponto, sejak Kamis 26 Oktober lalu, menjalani perawatan intensif pihak Rumah Sakit Dr Wahidin Sudirohusodo. Pemuda ini diduga (suspeck) terserang flu burung <snip>

Pixie – at 00:31

MAKASSAR

30 Oct 2006 / http://tinyurl.com/ybb8sl

The citizen Jeneponto was suspected of being attacked by Burung

Ilyas, 22, the Citizen from Street Mairo Asramaya, the Jenepponto Regency, since last Thursday October 26, underwent the intensive maintenance of the Hospital side Dr Wahidin Sudirohusodo. This young man was expected (suspeck) was attacked by bird flu (Avian Influenza, red).

Ilyas several days were attacked by the high fever. The temperature of his body achieved 38 levels.

The matter of the assumption terjangkit bird flu, because beforehand several tails of his kept chicken died suddenly. Therefore, the official of the local health did not want to take the risk. He then at once reconciled Ilyas to Makassar to be handled serious on the assumption terjangkit bird flu.

Ilyas that was met by the Dawn on Sunday, October 29 yesterday in maintenance space of ferns, claimed to be his condition did not yet improve. The infusion needle also still tertancap on his arms. Despite this, the temperature of his body seldom decrease to 37, 8 levels. According to Suwarni, 30, Tante Ilyas, already 11 today, Ilyas experienced the high fever. Sometimes was accompanied by the cough and breathless. The “Ilyas condition increasingly the day increasingly weak and feverish him did not descend-descended.” Therefore I worried lest that the sign of bird flu, obviously him.

Further was said by Suwarni, Ilyas often maintained the chicken. This Sunday, many of his chickens that died suddenly.

In the meantime, the hospital side at once carried out the taking of the ‘’‘sample of Ilyas blood. Only was not yet known by results’‘’.

Tiger Lily – at 08:01

EDITORIAL Monday October 30, 2006

Lots of smoke, but no fire

“Unable to see their way clear” correctly describes the recent plight of millions of people in Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Brunei and Thailand. It also describes the action of their governments and other Asean leaders. The people have been unable to see _ or to breathe _ clearly because of the annual sharing of smoke and smog by Indonesian farmers and corporations. The governments have been unable to see their way to solving this enormous inconvenience, economic burden and, worst of all, health threat. Citizens of Asean deserve far better from their governments, and from the regional group as a whole.

The source of the so-called haze that chokes, blinds and sickens Indonesia and neighbours each year is clear enough. Corporate farmers in particular, as well as small-time land owners, burn off their acreage in the dry season, as part of their traditional preparation for a new crop year

Each year for the past couple of decades, the amount of farmed land in Kalimantan and Sumatra provinces has grown. In many areas of these islands in particular, big companies have been increasing their cultivated land, using fire as a crude clearing system. Therefore, the number and size of fires have both escalated. That is the source, but only part of the cause of the smokey haze. Ignorance, arrogance and a lack of responsibility play major roles in making the haze, and in making it worse. There are apparently many people in Indonesia, some of them well educated, who believe that burning off old fields is an efficient and effective preparation for a new crop year.

Others know much better, but feel that so long as they can get away with using fire, it is easier than other methods. The logging firms burn off undergrowth to get to the good timber, and the corporate farmers burn at will. It is certainly easy to blame the fires on unidentified, small-farm owners, as a way of getting unearned sympathy. The farmers have no access to the media, which is dominated on this issue by the Indonesian government and slick PR agencies working for the corporate polluters. The truth is that if farmers with small land holdings were the chief fire starters, the haze would pose little problem even at the local level. In addition, a little education would go a long way with such farmers. A few years of demonstrating alternative, effective land preparation that involves no fire would soon convince land owners to try more friendly land-clearing methods.

After two horrendous years of fires actually killed people in Indonesia and as far away as Thailand in 1997 and 1998, Indonesia’s neighbours complained. Jakarta was sympathetic, but prone to making excuses. Heavier fines were imposed by law on fire-starters, but the enforcement was pathetic. Then, as now, Singapore and Malaysia were actually unhealthy in many places, the air toxic. Indonesian school children had to stay at home, flights were grounded and hospitals from Brunei to Satun treated thousands of cases of respiratory disorder.

Enter Asean, timorously. After four years of talking, Asean signed an agreement on what sensitive officials delicately decided to call “transboundary haze pollution” _ because if it was just in Indonesia, no problem. All the affected countries ratified the agreement, except one. This year, the 10th anniversary of the first big smoke-out, Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has promised to ratify the agreement

But Indonesia’s parliamentary commission for the environment has actually voted to delay ratification. First, say legislators, Thailand has to stop illegal fishing in Indonesian waters, and Malaysia has to stop illegal log-buying.

Malaysian Environment Minister Azmi Khalid got it exactly right when he said there were too many meetings, not enough action on the ground. The annual haze makes Indonesia a bad neighbour. Asean environment ministers are to meet next week in the Philippines. If they do not have an enforceable, forward-looking plan to fight the Indonesia haze by then, they should be called to account by citizens in their home countries who are threatened by the many dangers of toxic smoke.

http://tinyurl.com/yh8k5t

Commonground – at 08:27

Thanks Michelle in OK, Okieman & Tiger Lily. Pixie, you had me scared this morning, with the toggletext, but it’s fine. phew. Cottontop? Are you buried under snow over there in Watertown? Influentia2 and Pugmom, I’m glad we had the same take on that article. I didn’t find any new cases today in my search.

Influentia2 – at 08:31

Halo CG, I wish more had commented on it. I would love to hear their opinions. I didn’t see anything new either. 70 degrees here today am raking leaves soon. Have a good one.

cottontop – at 08:46

commonground-

Halo to all you wonderful people! I’ve had to take a break over the weekend,hubby b-day, winterizing, buidling an ark (sooo much rain), daughter’s halloween party. I’ve been checking on things, but haven’t been able to spend the time. A friend wanted me to help her with her microeconomics homework! I’m like “hello.” But I owed her a favor and have been searching for web information for her. I think things will get back to normal this week, hopefull. Hubby has another doctor’s appt., tomorrow for his back. Just doesn’t look good. Anyhow, guys and gals, I’m here, sometimes lurking, if you don’t hear from me. You people are really something. Hope everone has a great day. (coffee cup up)

Influentia2 – at 08:58

Thanks Cottontop I posted something with you in mind(you seem to me to have a good sense of humor) on the Humor thread.

cottontop – at 09:08

Influentia2-

Thank you. I love to laugh, and I love to make people laugh. It really is a good feeling, physically, to just be silly. My dad had a great sense of humor, and we callede him the joke master. He loved his Texas Aggie jokes. Since my dad was in the airforce, and airplanes were his life, and a big part of mine, I posted that for him, because I know he would have loved it. i just couldn’t stop laughting while I was typing, and it took me forever to get it posted. I love a good joke, and Carrey in Va gets me everytime. Hope we contine to use the humor page. Hope you have a beautiful day.

Green Mom – at 09:18

Morning all- just wanted to let you all know that even if we’re not posting, we’re reading all this and thanks so MUCH!

Cotton-top-your weekend sounds like mine-big halloween party, mostly a lot o’teens with all night DnD adventure. alas, the bon-fire was rained out. Wet basement :-( I’m trying to get everything dried out before another round o’ rain! Its allready gorgous out today. No microeconomics-wow! but had to work sat/sun. kinda tired this am-but I need to shovel out all the snack debris from my kitchen…..

Influentia2 – at 09:18

Well thank you Cottontop.

I laughed over this one I found by accident and thought I’d share it. A little humor now and then really helps.

Pixie – at 09:27

Halo everybody!

Influentia2 - I too think that they are beginning to throw in the towel and admit that the chicken/human H5N1 conncection is tenuous at best. From your post at 19:12:

His side has at this time had special space to handle infectious diseases including for the citizen who possibly was infected by bird flu.”That was frightened if being but being not realised by the community,”

That reads to me like they are afraid that infected but still asymptomatic people may be walking around, and the fear would be that they may be infecting others. That is clearly an admission that they are worried about H2H, and well aware that it could happen, particularly during this Lebaran travel time when so many people are moving about in tight crowds.

Dr. Nidom is telling them strongly that it’s not the chickens too. It will be interesting to see what kind of policies arise from this new awareness. Right now, it seems clear that you only get tested for H5N1 if you enter a hospital with a high fever AND happen to mention that you held a chicken that died in your arms recently. That may finally change, and perhaps we will see more hospitalizations being screened for H5N1 if they present with suspect symptoms.

I do think that the hardworking doctors in Indonesia really want to save these people, particularly these little kids. But somehow the entire nation, and the entire medical community (except for Dr. Nidom), has bought into the message that H5N1 is possible only if dead poultry is involved. If they unlink the human/chicken requirement, they may detect many more cases, but on the other hand many more people may be saved.

cottontop – at 09:31

The sad thing about helping my friend, is that I got brided with a box of Krispy cream donuts! the glaze just came over my eyes, and the next thing I know, I’m agreeing to this! Shows you what I’ll get myself into for krispy creams. Yes people, it is sad. I ncan be bribed! (but I can live with that.)

Pixie – at 09:32

Comment: H5N1 did not get the memo that it was supposed to be on holiday. Tanjungbalai appears to be a small island about midway between Sumatra Island and Singapore.

TANJUNGBALAI

Monday, 30 October 2006, 09:28:13 / http://tinyurl.com/y5juvq

Serang bird flu Tanjungbalai Masyarakat the District of Subdistrict tusks Datukbandar the Tanjungbalai City currently dicekam the fear.

‘’‘Hundreds of poultries peliharaaan, as the chicken and the duck, suddenly died suddenly. They worried the plague of bird flu attacked his area’‘’.

To anticipate expanded him the spreading of the bird flu illness, the community then quickly burnt all the poultry that died. Not only that, several citizens also took part in burning his chicken coop.


Map of Tanjungalai: http://tinyurl.com/yx67ao

Commonground – at 10:46

They are frightened. From Pixie - at 09:32: Not only that, several citizens also took part in burning his chicken coop.

Closed and Continued - Bronco Bill – at 11:15

Long thread closed and continued here

Last relevant posts copied to new thread

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Page last modified on October 30, 2006, at 11:15 AM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / H 5 N 1 Throughout Michigan

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: H 5 N 1 Throughout Michigan

27 October 2006

Mamabird – at 13:47

We now have three Michigan counties that have detected H5N1 in wildfowl, the latest being mallard ducks in St. Claire, north of Detroit. USDA is no longer issuing news releases on these findings, so you have to use the following link to keep track on your own.

http://wildlifedisease.nbii.gov/ai/LPAITable.pdf

Also please note that the USDA continues to withhold its test results on the H5N1 samples collected to date, and will not release the related genetic sequences. Your government dollars at work.

Malachi – at 14:05

Glad swimming season is over.Kids around here go to a small gravel pit to swim,or to rivers.

Mamabird – at 14:15

Malachi – at 14:05 “Glad swimming season is over.Kids around here go to a small gravel pit to swim,or to rivers.”

This variety of H5N1 is not yet a human health concern. However, if it gets into domestic fowl, it will likely go High Path very quickly. This could cause two serious problems. One, it could spell economic disaster to poultry farmers across the country as others would likely ban imports of our products. And two, the high pathogenic nature of the virus could jump the species barrier to mammals, including humans.

In other words, despite USDA’s attempt to hide this from the media and the public, it bears very close monitoring.

EnoughAlreadyat 14:23

Mamabird, I am including this in the Lookout Post USA thread! Thank you!

janetn – at 14:39

Mamabird please excuse my ignorance. But why will it go high path if it gets into domestic poultry?

TPTB only seem concerned with the economic impacts, therefore they seem bent spinning information [or lack of] to control their big boogeyman “panic”. Caveat emptor

janetn – at 14:43

Mamabird please excuse my ignorance. But why will it go high path if it gets into domestic poultry?

TPTB only seem concerned with the economic impacts, therefore they seem bent spinning information [or lack of] to control their big boogeyman “panic”. Caveat emptor

Mamabird – at 15:03

janetn – at 14:43 “…why will it go high path if it gets into domestic poultry?”

Of course, there is no guarantee that this variety will make the transition from low pathogenic avian influenza to high path, but that has certainly been the history of most of these H5 and H7 virus subtypes. It has happened with H5N2 (1983 Pennsylvannia and 2004 Texas), H7N7 (2003 Netherlands), and the Asian variety of H5N1.

This phenomina is generally discussed at such web sites as CDC and WHO, and there is a large volume of research on the subject on the internet. However, the exact mechanism for a virus variety to turn highly pathogenic is not clearly understood.

Bon in MI – at 16:38

I am next door to Tuscola county. I guess I had better leave the bird feeders packed away in the garage for one more year.

Malachi – at 18:36

Is Monroe county the third county,not listed on the table?Glad your around Bon,keep the feeders packed away :)

Urdar-Norway – at 19:17

the small pipips dont have H5N1, they may become infected but this is mainly a waterbird virus, so keep on feeding those small pips during cold winters.

ps, flat open birdfeeders is newer recomended, beacuse of risk of spread of sicknes among the birds (they poo in it) bether is those that is like a tube where food slowly feeds out,, (arrghm my limited english! :D

28 October 2006

Influentia2 – at 11:42

OK I seem to be making a habit today of asking or making dumb observations. I will ask this here since it seems to fit. These are snippets from today’s news thread.

9:54

“In an effort to maintain transparency” CONFIRMATORY AVIAN INFLUENZA TESTS COMPLETE ON OHIO DUCK SAMPLES WASHINGTON, Oct. 26, 2006 - The U.S. Departments of Agriculture and Interior today announced final test results, which confirm that no avian influenza virus was found in samples collected earlier this month from wild Northern pintail ducks in Ohio.

And a few minutes later:

More H5N1 Bird Flu in Michigan Recombinomics Commentary October 26, 2006 The USDA has reported detection of H5N1 in Michigan for the third time.

Ok now my question. I can draw two conclusions here? 1. H5N1 just hasn’t been detected yet in Ohio, maybe test the same kind of bird here as they are in Michigan. Would that yield a clue?

2. The birds in question know where the state line is and know just not to show up here in Ohio.

Am I missing something here? Am I missing another conclusion? Whenever TPTB get involved telling me what I need to know, I start to become confused with all the transparency.

Blue Ridge Mountain Mom – at 11:54

I have another question similar to Influentia2. I posted a story in the Close But Not Bird Flu thread yesterday about the fish in the Great Lakes having Viral Hemorrhagic Septicemia http://tinyurl.com/ymvoa8.

I was talking with DH about this because we were discussing the shrimp study that found viral increases before a viral outbreak that I posted earlier this week. Suddenly, we’ve got sick fish from a new virus that showed up last year that they are not sure where it came from, but they are supposing from the ballast water in ships brought over from Europe and Asia.

What I am wondering is this:

Could the viral infection in the fish have infected the birds with H5N1?

Could the birds have infected the fish?

Were there any fish die-offs that were reported in Indonesia after the Indonesians started throwing dead chickens in the river?

Were there any fish die-offs that were reported prior to the chicken die-offs?

Does anyone else feel like we should watch this situation to see if there is anything that we are missing, or is it just me?!?

Influentia2 – at 15:30

BRMM 11:54

I don’t remember seeing any articles about fish die-offs in Indonesia after the chicken carcasses were thrown into the rivers. I posted an article back in September I think(tried using back-links to find it no luck) but the only article I remember seeing that even suggested that these carcasses were causing problems was when one village reported an outbreak in their poultry and officials knew that villagers upriver from them had been throwing the carcasses in the river. Anyway, the village officials suggested this caused the outbreak they had and shortly after that I stopped finding anymore articles like this. I believe this was in Banyuwangi in East Java. Sorry I cannot be more help but you have given me an idea here too. I could possibly try looking for articles about fish die-offs in my searches and who knows what I might find. I will try it and post anything I find on the Indo thread for you. I usually look for other key words in searches but your question has given me ideas. Worth a try and thank you.

NS1 – at 16:27

Canine Distemper virus is the cause of large dolphin die-offs around the US and other coastlines. Viral infections from land animals are well-documented in aquatic creatures.

I have no information on H5N1 in fish however.

Influentia2 – at 17:00

NS1 16:27

Thank you for your post. I had no idea about canine distemper infecting dolphins. I will have to do some reading in that area. Thanks again

Blue Ridge Mountain Mom – at 20:43

Thanks, everybody for responding! I’ve just gotten back from my moving fun, and I’ll be helping move more tomorrow, so I’m going to hit my news sources for Central and South America.

NS1 - Thanks for the info on the canine distemper. Wonder how that is doing with the H3N8 that we have here in Florida.

29 October 2006

NS1 – at 01:38

Influentia2-

Ms. Reid on the JKT team did some of the pioneering work in identifying and isolating the pathogen in the dolphin cases. She’s an all-star.

BBMM-

The H3N8 is on my “A” list to watch. Little chance of recombination with the distemper.

Influentia2 – at 09:36

NS1 Thank you for letting me know about her. I have been reading this morning and I thought I recognised your handle in some of the papers I have read today too.

NS1 – at 17:03

Influentia2-

My belief is that the NS1 gene segment in Influenza and its equivalent in other viral pathogens is key to our understanding of H5N1’s virulence. Because I’d like to see others study that particular area, I chose the gene segment name for the non-structural protein to increase awareness.

I have not published work in the field of Influenza studies.

NS1 – at 17:04

NS1 on FluWiki

Influentia2 – at 20:55

NS1

I certainly have learned a lot today reading about the NS1 gene segment. I also read the CFR Without Anti-Virals thread since we had decided several months ago not to take Tamiflu and see if that may change our minds about Tamiflu, but it did not. Thank you for increasing our awareness on this topic. My next stop is looking into things that will boost our immune systems and getting into a second year of preps. I will continue to read about the things you have posted on too I find this very interesting. Thanks again.

30 October 2006

NS1 – at 04:28

Influentia2-

I’ll be posting more in the coming months about causing your body to respond properly to viral assault; however, my firm belief is that no treatment will be categorically sufficient upon diagnosis with H5N1 in a pandemic form (PF51).

In the absence of a post-event solution, prevent the event.

Don’t become exposed. If you think that you will be exposed, be certain you’ve prepared your body to dismiss the virus rather than incubate it.

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Page last modified on October 30, 2006, at 04:28 AM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / News Reports for October 29

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: News Reports for October 29

29 October 2006

AnnieBat 00:29

Summary from Indonesia Outbreak as at 26 October 2006 (latest update)

Cases DiscussedJun-06Jul-06Aug-06Sep-06Oct-06Total
Died, no tests2243415
Died, tested positive4323315
Other tested positive013105
Suspected symptoms42463827117
Tested negative062619758
Totals1014816441210

Lookout Posts – here are the links (if no Lookout Post exists, it will not be highlighted)

Please visit these threads for latest information from these regions or to add news

NoRegion NameNoRegion NameNoRegion Name
1USA8East Africa15Arab Peninsula
2Canada, Greenland and the Arctic Circle9Southern Africa and Madagascar16Central Asia
3Central America and Caribbean10Northwest Europe and British Isles17Southern Asia
4South America and Surrounding Islands11West and Southwest Europe18Mainland East Asia and Japan
5Northern Africa12Central and Southeast Europe19Southeast Asia
6West Africa13Eastern Europe and Baltic Region20Australasia Melanesia and Micronesia
7Central Africa14Middle East and Caucasus Region21Pacific Islands and Antarctic

(Please see the thread Volunteers Needed as Lookouts Worldwide if you want to help)


Summary of News for 28 October 2006

(From WHO as at 16 Oct - latest update) Total human cases worldwide 256, deaths 151 (2006 – 109 with 73 deaths)
(If you want the links to open in a new window, hold down the shift key and then click on the link)

India

Indonesia

Italy

United States of America

Vietnam

General

Link to news thread for 28 October (link News Reports for October 28 )
(Usual disclaimer about may not have captured everything. Feel free to add your own where omissions have occurred.)
Please note that I copy the links directly from the thread so if they don’t work you may need to re-visit the Thread.

AnnieBat 04:42

Just checked out the Ministry of Health Surveillance site for Thailand and here are their latest figures as at 26 October - last update.

Cumulative number of patients under surveillance are 5,354 cases 72 provinces. Today reports are 6 cases; Two cases each from Nonthaburi and Chiangrai, and 1 each from Kanchanaburi and Singburi.

Confirmed human case of avian influenza 2006 = 3 cases, with 3 death cases.

There are 10 cases under investigate reported, of which waiting for laboratory result.

(link - just change the date in the address for the latest numbers http://tinyurl.com/yhosj7 )

Tiger Lily – at 07:59

Bangkok Post - October 29, 2006

More floating toilets needed Public donations call, schools to reopen

The Public Health Ministry yesterday called on the public to donate more floating toilets, citing fear of diarrhoea outbreaks.

Human faeces released into stagnating floodwaters was chiefly blamed for most of the illnesses from water-borne diseases among the 574,520 flood victims. As many as 40% had foot infections from wading through floodwaters, followed by rashes and colds.

More floating toilets were dispatched to Ang Thong and Ayutthaya yesterday to prevent diarrhoea outbreaks.

But Public Health permanent secretary Prat Boonyawongvirote said 400 more were still needed.

Dr Prat has invited the public to donate money to built the floating toilets via the ministry’s flood relief centre, by dialling 02–590–1994 between 8am to 8pm everyday.

Bangkok Governor Apirak Kosayodhin was confident that schools could reopen on Wednesday, saying water in key eastern areas should recede and dry out next week.

But communities along bursting canals and submerged farmland were likely to remain flooded for a while longer, he said.

The governor inspected areas in Lat Krabang yesterday and was satisfied with the water level which had receded by 10–20 cm in the past week.

But we’re going to face another period of high tide on Nov 8–9 in Thawi Watthana, Taling Chan, Bang Khun Thian and Bang Bon areas, he said.

http://tinyurl.com/y2sgrm

Thinlina – at 08:03

What about Egypt panic?

Tiger Lily – at 08:09

Bird flu likely to re-emerge in cold, wet

Fowls in weak state, cooler days coming

By Kultida SamabuddhI & Apiradee Treerutkuarkul

A re-emergence of the avian influenza outbreak is likely as the country is entering the cold season while fowls are in poor health due to widespread floods, Livestock Development Department chief Yukol Limlamthong has warned. The poultry population is in a weak condition as a result of the flood disaster, which could make them contract the virus easily, said Dr Yukol.

The department’s bird flu prevention units have started to spray disinfectant in poultry farms across the country, focusing on flood-hit provinces, he added.

The agency normally stepped up bird flu prevention operations around year-end because the deadly virus is found to spread well in cold weather.

However, this year’s operation has to be more stringent than previous years due to the weak condition of the fowls.

Nirundorn Aungtragoolsuk, chief of the department’s animal disease control bureau, said authorities working on bird flu prevention were preparing to seek cabinet approval to revive the National Committee on Avian Influenza, dissolved in the aftermath of the coup d’etat.

The committee is in charge of drafting and supervising the national policy on bird flu outbreak control and prevention.

Comprising experts and officials from various agencies, it was chaired by the ousted deputy prime minister Suriya Jungrungreangkit.

A virologist yesterday urged agencies to again consider poultry vaccination following the Public Health Ministry’s proposal to use the method to combat bird flu.

Use of bird flu vaccine in fowls is currently banned.

Prasert Auewarakul, a virologist at Siriraj Hospital’s faculty of medicine, said strict safety procedures were needed if the government decided to carry out vaccinations.

The government should follow safety procedures when conducting the vaccine programme, he said. It should also consider the vaccine use guidelines developed by the National Centre for Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology.

The Livestock Development Department opposes vaccinating poultry against the avian flu virus, saying vaccination would make it more difficult to control bird flu outbreaks because vaccinated and infected fowls could not be kept apart easily.

However, Disease Control Department chief Thawat Sundarajarn, who backs lifting the ban, said the programme would be effective in combating bird flu.

In the first stage, it would be limited to only rare fowl species, birds raised for their plumage and backyard chickens. Vaccinated fowl would be contained.

http://tinyurl.com/yfzv7o

mj – at 09:07

http://tinyurl.com/ydkonf

Asbury Park Press reports that NJ is ready. When the next global pandemic comes, humanity will at least be ready, Miro said. “Those last three pandemics showed up without warning . . . At least we can see it coming and begin to prepare.”

mj – at 09:10

http://tinyurl.com/yzgu3s Pandemics demand ounce of prevention

Deseret Morning News editorial A recent survey points out a poignant truth: The road to a national pandemic is paved with good intentions. <snip> Plan ahead.

      We urge people to anticipate problems before they occur. Saying you’ll stay home for 10 days with the flu is one thing, but staying home and starving to death is quite another.

<snip>

      Get rid of debt. Have enough food and other needs at home to last for several weeks. Put some money away for a rainy day and make arrangements in advance for child care and personal help around the house.
      Every photographer and athlete knows the importance and value of anticipation.
      We urge all citizens to learn why forethought pays off.
      Take precautions and prepare for the unexpected
Monotreme – at 09:40

USA

Preparing the world for a flu pandemic

The World Health Organization’s new plan for ramping up the production of flu vaccine is a measure of how unprepared the world is to cope with an onslaught of pandemic influenza. The plan, conceived by a group of more than 120 experts, lays out a sensible path toward vaccine sufficiency - but it will take years to complete and cost up to $10 billion.

[snip]

The administration has also invested substantially in vaccine research, including $1 billion to develop new cell-based technologies that would allow rapid expansion of production in an emergency. Although those investments are primarily for America’s own benefit, the knowledge generated is likely to help others around the world.

Still, both the American and global efforts ought to be intensified. The Bush administration’s goal of being able to make enough vaccine quickly to protect all Americans is also probably four to five years away. Neither America nor the rest of the world is yet ready to handle a worst-case pandemic.

http://tinyurl.com/yf546y


This appears to be an opinion piece in the NYT, but I can’t tell who wrote it.

Monotreme – at 09:44

USA

Preparedness and a Flu Epidemic (5 Letters)

The Department of Health and Human Services has made significant investments to buy N95 respirators, surgical masks and antiviral stockpiles, expand vaccine manufacturing capabilities, improve monitoring and surveillance, support state and local preparedness and many other activities.

We agree with Mr. Weil that nonpharmaceutical interventions like N95 respirators and surgical masks have an important role in mitigating the effect of a pandemic on Americans, and we are buying the necessary countermeasures to protect the public health.

John O. Agwunobi, M.D. Assistant Secretary for Health Department of Health and Human Service


N95 respirator masks, mentioned by Mr. Wein, are useful in the intensive-care setting to prevent spread of respiratory viruses, but this is a far cry from advocating their use in the general population, where they are not likely to be worn or used properly.

Marc Siegel, M.D.


Monotreme – at 09:49

South Carolina, USA

The next flu pandemic: Not if but when

“With pandemic flu,” Dr. Fabian recently told a joint meeting of the Anderson, Oconee and Pickens county medical associations, “it’s not a question of if, it’s a question of when.”

[snip]

South Carolina is stockpiling about 275,000 doses of antivirals as part of its preparedness plans.

But planning for the pandemic’s opening infections also focuses on containment, Dr. Fabian explained, and that centers on social isolation of the population.

“The safest thing would be for people just to stay home,” he said, adding that planners foresaw levels of absenteeism among the population approaching 40 percent at the pandemic’s peak. Plans called for the closing of schools, the cancellation of public events and perhaps enforced quarantine in particular circumstances.

http://tinyurl.com/yhgkrf

Monotreme – at 09:52

South Carolina, USA

What You Should Know About the Avian (Bird) Flu

Spartanburg County Public Libraries

[snip]

Thursday

6 p.m. Headquarters Library, “What You Should Know About the Avian (Bird) Flu.” Pat Elliott of the American Red Cross will give information about the possible bird flu pandemic and how to prepare for such an emergency. BMW Board Room. Call 596–3500, Ext. 1203.

http://tinyurl.com/yjr7cu

Monotreme – at 10:00

North Carolina, USA

CATAWBA COUNTY COMMISSIONERS

Barger, a retired Catawba County Schools superintendent, said the county should continue following education recommendations of the 2004 Foresight report. The Foresight committee, a volunteer group appointed by the Board of Commissioners, issued the report on education, the economy and other issues.

He said the county also should plan more for catastrophic emergencies, such as a pandemic, and work to improve air and water quality.


2nd mention of a pandemic as an election issue within the last 2 days. Personally, I would support any politician that makes preparing for a pandemic and strengthening infrastructure a priority, regardless of party affiliation. The best possible outcome would be if the two major parties in the US were to start to see preparing their communities as an important issue.

Monotreme – at 10:03

USA

A sobering view of America’s vulnerability

The United States is a country with a population of 300 million and an annual budget of $2.77 trillion a year. Are we prepared for the next large-scale disaster? Irwin Redlener vehemently writes, “No!”

He is the Director of the National Center for Disaster Preparedness at Columbia University and he thinks our country is in serious trouble. Five years after Sept. 11 and one year after Hurricane Katrina, Redlener points out the problems with spending billions on “random acts of preparedness” with very little to show for it.

[snip]

Disturbing, provocative and eye-opening, this book will keep you up at night, and not in the “I-have-to-finish-the-last-page-of-this-book-to-find-out-who-the-real-villain-is” way but in the “How-in-the-world-did-this-happen-and-what-are-we-going-to-do-about-it?” way that practically guarantees many water-cooler discussions the next morning.

Redlener presents five fatalistic scenarios for us to ponder: pandemic avian flu in New York City; a major earthquake in Seattle and Puget Sound; a nuclear attack; a toxic chemical release in a tornado-risk zone; and a terrorist attack at elementary schools in Arizona. Light reading? Not exactly. Important reading? Absolutely. Each scenario is thoroughly discussed and evaluated in excruciating detail that will leave the reader questioning everything he’s ever learned about government, bureaucracy and risk management.

http://tinyurl.com/y4fjl4

Commonground – at 14:51

I wanted to share this excerpt:
http://tinyurl.com/ylw2x8
Anatidae Migration in the Western Palearctic and Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1 Virus

It could be argued that an important contradiction of the hypothesis that wild birds spread HPAI H5N1 virus along their migration paths stems from our “false-positive” predictions (e.g., Figure 2E, Spain, Morocco, Greece). We propose 3 possible explanations for these deviations. First, as well as being along flyways of infected wild bird, establishment of HPAI H5N1 virus in domestic poultry may require additional conditions: 1) an aggregation of waterfowl for a sufficient period (more risk for transmission within wintering areas than at more transient stopover sites), 2) a high proportion of small poultry farms and backyard poultry, and 3) extensive (aquatic) poultry units in contact with waterfowl populations and habitat, i.e., floodplain or other forms of wetland agriculture in close proximity to natural wetlands used as wildfowl wintering sites. Such conditions have been shown to be associated with HPAI H5N1 virus persistence in Southeast Asia (6) and were certainly also met in parts of Romania, Turkey, and Ukraine. Second, the overall prevalence of HPAI H5N1 virus found in wild bird populations was very low, usually <1% (8). This finding suggests that virus persistence in wild bird populations may be subject to stochastic fluctuation. Also, few infected individual birds are likely to be evenly distributed in the population; i.e., the distribution of infected birds is probably clustered. The scarcity of infected individual birds and their likely clustering produce a pattern in which several regions exposed to equivalent wintering populations may have been exposed to different levels of virus exposure. Finally, HPAI H5N1 virus was found either in dead and apparently healthy ducks, which suggests a dichotomy in wild bird susceptibility. The exact status of species, as sentinels or spreaders, and precise migratory pattern may help explain any inconsistencies that arise from considering all species at equal risk for transmission.

One could also mention here the discrepancies between the geographic spread of HPAI H5N1 virus and overall pattern of wild bird migrations: the virus has never been reported in the Philippines and in several countries farther south such as New Zealand and Australia (although these 2 countries have no migratory anatid populations connecting them to Southeast Asia, they do have many shore bird and wader species in common [20]). Conversely, with the possible exception of African countries, HPAI H5N1 virus was established in domestic poultry only in countries connected by flyways with existing infected countries. The introduction in Nigeria is inconclusive. Two species of dabbling ducks, Anas querquedula and A. acuta, have large wintering concentrations in and near Lake Chad and in the Niger delta, both under the western Siberia/Black Sea flyways, and are presumed to be infected by HPAI H5N1 virus. However, Nigeria imported large numbers of poultry from Turkey and People’s Republic of China until a ban was imposed, and illegal trade may well have continued after the ban and brought in infected animals or products (33).

AnnieBat 15:31

Tamiflu helped avert outbreak of bird flu (India) Kounteya Sinha [ 29 Oct, 2006 2344hrs ISTTIMES NEWS NETWORK ]

NEW DELHI: The deadly H5N1 bird flu virus that hit India in February 2006 was sensitive to Tamiflu, the drug which many governments including India used to ward off a deadly bird flu pandemic. Genetic and DNA sequencing of the virus collected from Jalgaon and Navapur by scientists from Bhopal’s High Security Animal Disease Laboratory, has revealed that the virus contained several types of amino acids - glutamic acid, asparigine, histidine and arvinone - that made it sensitive to Tamiflu. This, scientists say, helped India avert a possible transmission of the deadly H5N1 virus from birds to humans.

Scientists B Patnaik and C Tosh, who have completed sequencing the genes HA1 and HA2 of the virus and studying the 10 proteins, specially HA and NA present in the virus, told TOI that “timely administering of Tamiflu to those who were quarantined on suspicions of having been in contact with H5N1 virus infected birds, helped us avert the transmission of the virus to humans.

<snip> “Our DNA tests, conducted of the HA, NA, NS1 and PV2 proteins, showed the virus that hit India was capable of infecting mammals, including humans. Therefore, a Tamiflu resistant virus would have resulted in people being infected by the bird flu virus easily, ultimately resulting in their mortality.”

The scientists have made another interesting discovery. They say the virus that hit India, specially the one that was isolated from the outbreak in Navapur, had mutated and undergone a re-assortment in Turkey.

This means that the virus, which had originated in Qinghai (central China), was carried to Turkey by migratory birds. Here, the virus mutated and mixed with the Vietnamese strain. The mixed strain was then brought to India by migratory birds. … More at http://tinyurl.com/ye6cno

anonyJohn – at 15:35

Comment: It’s nice to see they really are trying to understand the virus. This article doesn’t reveal anything earth-shattering. It’s a little unsettling, but promising at the same time.


 NEW DELHI: The deadly H5N1 bird flu virus that hit India in February 2006 was sensitive to Tamiflu, the drug which many governments including India used to ward off a deadly bird flu pandemic.

Genetic and DNA sequencing of the virus collected from Jalgaon and Navapur by scientists from Bhopal’s High Security Animal Disease Laboratory, has revealed that the virus contained several types of amino acids - glutamic acid, asparigine, histidine and arvinone - that made it sensitive to Tamiflu.

This, scientists say, helped India avert a possible transmission of the deadly H5N1 virus from birds to humans.

Scientists B Patnaik and C Tosh, who have completed sequencing the genes HA1 and HA2 of the virus and studying the 10 proteins, specially HA and NA present in the virus, told TOI that “timely administering of Tamiflu to those who were quarantined on suspicions of having been in contact with H5N1 virus infected birds, helped us avert the transmission of the virus to humans.

DNA analysis of the virus has shown it to be highly sensitive to Tamiflu”. According to lab chief H K Pradhan, some countries including Vietnam have reported that the virus circulating there is resistant to Tamiflu making its containment even more difficult.

 “Our DNA tests, conducted of the HA, NA, NS1 and PV2 proteins, showed the virus that hit India was capable of infecting mammals, including humans. Therefore, a Tamiflu resistant virus would have resulted in people being infected by the bird flu virus easily, ultimately resulting in their mortality.”

The scientists have made another interesting discovery. They say the virus that hit India, specially the one that was isolated from the outbreak in Navapur, had mutated and undergone a re-assortment in Turkey.

This means that the virus, which had originated in Qinghai (central China), was carried to Turkey by migratory birds. Here, the virus mutated and mixed with the Vietnamese strain. The mixed strain was then brought to India by migratory birds. This phenomenon of being hit by a re-assorted virus has not been reported from any other country over the past four years.

“The influenza virus mutates quickly. So did the H5N1 virus that came to India. Turkey is one of the few countries where both the Chinese and Vietnamese strain have been found.

“The virus that was found in Navapur was a mixed strain. That’s why we believe the mixing happened in Turkey. While the NA was the Vietnamese type, the HA was Chinese,” Pradhan added.

Klatu – at 18:33

Qinghai H5N1 in Shantou China

Recombinomics Commentary October 29, 2006

“ Recent H5N1 sequences released at Genbank included 404 H5N1 isolates from China deposited by Hong Kong University and collaborators. Although many of the HA sequences were partial sequences, most included the HA cleavage site and the vast majority have the novel HA cleavage site, PLRERRRK_R found in the recently reported Fujian strain.

“”“H5N1 evolves via acquisitions of polymorphisms by homologous recombination in dually infected hosts. The profile of newly acquire polymorphisms in the Shantou isolate indicate the Qinghai strain is evolving via dual infections in eastern and southeastern China.

The limited detection in China may be related to vaccination efforts or natural immunity which may have suppressed levels of the Qinghai strain, but increased levels of the Fujian strain. Alternatively, current surveillance methods may select against detection of the Qinghai strain” .”“”

- excerpt

http://tinyurl.com/vz6xp

Commonground – at 18:43

Klatu - I think you meant to put it in bold? If so, that is three single quotation marks, not in caps. Like an apostrophe. Can you please tell me in a language I can comprehend, what Dr. Niman is saying in his Commentary?

Monotreme – at 18:46

Kansas, USA

Cherokee County is Preparing for Possible Pandemic with a Mass Vaccination

Officials in Cherokee County will use a mass flu vaccination this week to prepare for fighting much worse diseases in the future.

The county’s health department plans to give out 1,000 vaccinations on Wednesday in Riverton for twenty bucks each.

Authorities say administering that many doses will give them experience in rapidly providing medication. That would come in handy during an infectious pandemic, when they would have to provide vaccinations or other medication to all county residents within 48 hours.

http://tinyurl.com/yesap2

Monotreme – at 18:51

New York, USA

Grave markers interesting

We have gone to cemeteries and seen markers for several members of a single family who died within a few days or weeks of each other as victims of some pestilence or pandemic.

We’ve all heard news about a possible pandemic of bird flu. Kaye’s parents and mine were lucky to have survived the influenza pandemic of 1918.

During that year and the next, more people died from the flu than were killed in all of World War I.

The so-called Black Death of bubonic plague in the middle of the 10th century felled only about a quarter of those who died in that one year between 1918 and 1919 from the Spanish flu.

When Kaye and I toured cemeteries at a place called Cades Cove in the Great Smoky Mountain National Park, we walked solemnly among the rows of stones and shed a tear for tiny babies and mothers who died in the 1918–19 epidemic.

http://tinyurl.com/y9vxof

Klatu – at 19:09

Commonground – at 18:43 wrote:

“Klatu - I think you meant to put it in bold? If so, that is three single quotation marks, not in caps. Like an apostrophe.

 Can you please tell me in a language I can comprehend, what Dr. Niman is saying in his Commentary?”

re: quotation marks

The technology does always co-operate. I run a Crapple.

> “Can you please tell me in a language I can comprehend,”

“suppressed levels of the Qinghai strain, but increased levels of the Fujian”

My personal read is, when authorities/Chinese/WHO/CDC reassure the public in scientific sounding releases by saying, they found no deadly virus, (in the right pocket “suppressed Qinghai strain”), it’s because they know everything has moved into the left pocket, (“increased levels of the Fujian”). This could be a misleading shell game, both strains are bad.

Dr. N suggests, you have to ask the right question to get the right answer, not unlike Simon Says. My 2-cents.


Hundreds of tails of the Chicken in the Village of the shavings Elephant died Suddenly

Sinar Indonesia Online

(software translation from Indonesian)

Oct 28, 2006 at 09:17 AM

“The Range (SIB) was estimated hundreds of tails of the citizen’s chicken Desagajah, the Series Subdistrict of the shavings Hall mati suddenly. The local citizen expected the chicken that died that was affected by bird flu.

Amir Siagian to SIB, on Thursday (26/10) said, since Wednesday (25/10) several tails of the nonpedigreed chicken that was allocated for lebaran died suddenly, in fact beforehand the chicken that indeed disengaja diternak since the last 7 months healthy, but suddenly the chicken as being not powerful, his cock’s comb turned blue then his mouth issued the foam.

The citizen in the village mentioned the chicken illness “peokkon”.

The chicken that still was living walaupn has been sick was cut off to be consumed, because of from long before also the chicken that be hit by dented could be eaten.

However the chicken that has died was buried and was also a part was swept away to the river because the river water overflowed, explained Amir Siagian.

-excerpt

http://tinyurl.com/ykbhkr

Commonground – at 19:14

Klatu - Thank you - I would not have picked that up in that Commentary. Very enlightening.

Klatu – at 19:18

Bird flu: the front line

October 30, 2006

Times2

“If you have the stomach for it, go to www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/en/ and click on “frequently asked questions”.

 Here, courtesy of the World Health Organisation (WHO), you will find everything you ever wanted to know about H5N1, the avian influenza virus — and plenty that you wished you didn’t. 

That the potential for H5N1 to fuel a human influenza pandemic “is serious and has increased” ; that once a pandemic is under way it is “considered unstoppable”; that the best way to prevent one is to eliminate H5N1 in birds but that this is seen as “increasingly doubtful”.

http://tinyurl.com/yy95hf

Goju – at 19:31

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/msid-223059,curpg-1.cms

Tamiflu helped avert outbreak of bird flu

NEW DELHI: The deadly H5N1 bird flu virus that hit India in February 2006 was sensitive to Tamiflu, the drug which many governments including India used to ward off a deadly bird flu pandemic.

Genetic and DNA sequencing of the virus collected from Jalgaon and Navapur by scientists from Bhopal’s High Security Animal Disease Laboratory, has revealed that the virus contained several types of amino acids - glutamic acid, asparigine, histidine and arvinone - that made it sensitive to Tamiflu.

This, scientists say, helped India avert a possible transmission of the deadly H5N1 virus from birds to humans.

Scientists B Patnaik and C Tosh, who have completed sequencing the genes HA1 and HA2 of the virus and studying the 10 proteins, specially HA and NA present in the virus, told TOI that “timely administering of Tamiflu to those who were quarantined on suspicions of having been in contact with H5N1 virus infected birds, helped us avert the transmission of the virus to humans.

DNA analysis of the virus has shown it to be highly sensitive to Tamiflu”. According to lab chief H K Pradhan, some countries including Vietnam have reported that the virus circulating there is resistant to Tamiflu making its containment even more difficult.

“Our DNA tests, conducted of the HA, NA, NS1 and PV2 proteins, showed the virus that hit India was capable of infecting mammals, including humans. Therefore, a Tamiflu resistant virus would have resulted in people being infected by the bird flu virus easily, ultimately resulting in their mortality.”

The scientists have made another interesting discovery. They say the virus that hit India, specially the one that was isolated from the outbreak in Navapur, had mutated and undergone a re-assortment in Turkey.

This means that the virus, which had originated in Qinghai (central China), was carried to Turkey by migratory birds. Here, the virus mutated and mixed with the Vietnamese strain. The mixed strain was then brought to India by migratory birds. This phenomenon of being hit by a re-assorted virus has not been reported from any other country over the past four years.

“The influenza virus mutates quickly. So did the H5N1 virus that came to India. Turkey is one of the few countries where both the Chinese and Vietnamese strain have been found.

“The virus that was found in Navapur was a mixed strain. That’s why we believe the mixing happened in Turkey. While the NA was the Vietnamese type, the HA was Chinese,” Pradhan added.

DennisCat 23:18

not too newsy and what we already know but it is a slow day so:

The home front Individual households need to know how and why they should

“……This essential defense is the ability of individuals and families to take shelter at home for extended periods without the usual sources of water, food, electricity, medicine and other essentials or evacuate on short notice. …

For countless Americans, it all comes down to one simple truth: the quality of your life after a pandemic, terrorist attack or natural disaster will reflect the quality of your planning and preparations before the event. Relying totally on the government and other relief agencies is a strategic blunder with potentially dire outcomes. …

Each family prepared to shelter at home or evacuate during a disaster is one less family in need of assistance. It releases emergency responders to aid others unable to help themselves. And every family that has made these preparations is another family enjoying the peace of mind that comes from knowing it can cope with the next disaster, whether natural or man-made. ..”

http://tinyurl.com/ungwb

AnnieBat 23:22

I am just preparing the News Summary then I will open a new thread so you might like to save your post for about 30 minutes.

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.NewsReportsForOctober29
Page last modified on October 29, 2006, at 11:22 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / India II

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: India II

15 October 2006

AnnieBat 16:46

Old thread is here

AnnieBat 16:51

Here are copies of the last few entries in the previous thread.

Olymom – at 14:18

There are two separate events unfolding here. The dengue fever and the Nepal 8 deaths. I really hope folks will take a deep breath and listen to Albert on the many dengue fever cases. He is there — he knows the country. I’ve had the good fortune to travel to India on two occasions and it is so far different that North America or Europe that it is beyond words to describe. It really is a different reality — but I have a very hard time thinking that all those very smart Indian doctors, nurses, lab workers, public health people wouldn’t be tuning into cases that were H5N1 instead of dengue (on respiratory stuff alone). It’s a dengue outbreak in a country that has had dengue historically. (Occam’s razor). India is NOT Indonesia — or China.

The Nepal 8 are far more worrisome. Tom DVM suggests infectious encelphalitis — there could be some other nastys in play in a region that has no water treatment, no vaccinations for children, no heat but wood, and no medical services (and no money to pay for services if there are).

Let’s dial back the worry level a tad — the next week will be interesting, but we’ve been here before (confirmed clusters in Turkey, Karo, etc).


Niah – at 14:21

India News

Chikungunya enters Bengal, more dengue cases Kolkata, Oct 15 :

At least two cases of chikungunya fever have been confirmed in West Bengal while more dengue patients have been admitted to hospitals.

The state government has confirmed that two of the seven blood samples sent to the National Institute of Virology (NIV) in Pune for detection of the chikungunya virus had tested positive.

[snip]

According to official figures, around 1,500 people in about 15 villages in Baduria and Swarupnagar are down with fever.

Dengue is caused by a virus spread by the female Aedes aegypti mosquito that breeds in clear stagnant water. It is marked by high fever, skin rashes and joint pain. A sharp drop in blood platelet counts can prove fatal.

Chikungunya, marked by pain in joints, is caused by a virus that is also spread by the same type of mosquito.

[snip]

Meanwhile, one person at Lalbag in Murshidabad district and six people in Kolkata also tested positive for dengue Friday last, reports said.

[snip]

Though the mayor said the situation was not alarming, especially compared to the previous year when some 1,000 people were affected and 12 deaths occurred, more cases were reported since.

http://tinyurl.com/y6w5b9

AnnieB – at 16:32

With regards to the questions about the dengue fever (or whatever) not affecting the very young .. if you read about dengue fever (try wikipedia), there are several varieties (which also makes it difficult to eradicate / vaccinate for) so a person could have more than one attack in a lifetime - immunity is built from each attack to that particular ‘strain’ only. It is assumed that, as further attacks take place, there is a greater chance that the haemorraghic form will prevail. Death from the straight-forward forms of dengue are rare but the H form is, sadly, devastating. Following this to its logical conclusion, it does explain why the deaths are most often in the elderly.

What amazes and amuses me is that this time last year, when the same level of dengue and chik were no doubt happening in these same regions, we probably didn’t even notice them! However, concern is real and genuine and we are well aware that another mixing bowl for our H5N1 friend is not needed - if these people are already weakened by other viruses and diseases when the flu season starts ..

treyfish – at 17:10

Latest press release from indian health ministry i found dated today http://tinyurl.com/wyy5p

treyfish – at 17:13

Also a bit of chicken ginea news at the same link.

Oremus – at 22:14

Not much new in this story except that Nepal has formed a med team to investigate the 8 mystery deaths. I did find the following amusing:

The disease could be viral influenza or common cold, National Health Education, Information and Communication Center said in a release on Sunday.

I hope the common cold has not become THIS deadly.

Nepal mobilizes medico team to control unidentified disease

16 October 2006

On the fence and leaning – at 23:32

Hardly ‘common’, this cold. Anyone heard anything new?

Medical Maven – at 23:53

That Nepal report-It is the only panflu-related news that ever got the hair to stand up on my arms, but my gernman shepherd has many such false alarms like when she sees a piece of plastic fluttering in an empty field. Still it was my first visceral reaction on the panflu front.

17 October 2006

DennisCat 00:02

just over the boarder in Pakistan

“After India and Nepal, dengue, a mosquito-borne disease of the tropics, has claimed 17 lives in neighboring country Pakistan’s city, Karachi in the last four months, as reported by the health officials on Saturday….Besides that hospitals in the city have admitted around 700 patients potentially suffering from the disease, and around 250 people have been tested positive for dengue, following which a situation of high alert has been declared in the city by the city’s health officials…”

http://tinyurl.com/yfdde8

gharris – at 01:03

news thread says they think the problem in Nepal is SARS??

Albert – at 02:12

Yes, someone, without any facts or test results in hand, mentioned SARS. We should wait until further news out of Nepal reaches us. I will contact a journalist friend of mine in Kathmandu. If I hear anything, I will post it here.

Many Cats – at 02:14

Thank You, Albert!

DennisCat 09:13

Dengue may come in by air

“Dengue has killed significant numbers of people and affected hundreds recently. Apart from the open boarder, Nepal has airline flights coming in every day from several cities in India. … The government doesn’t have a policy of testing for dengue and it will take about a year more to set up the lab even though it has started working with the WHO in this regard,” a source at the National Public Health Laboratory said. However, Dr. Thakur claimed a lab could be set up within a few weeks. “We will start phasewise meetings with WHO from Tuesday in this regard as it has assured us of providing kits for the testing of about 200 samples,” ….”

http://tinyurl.com/yybrg8

treyfish – at 09:36

More on the story. Pubic Health Office shows negligence on dengue threat in Siraha

Kantipur Report

SUNSARI, Oct 15 - Despite directives from the headquarters to keep constant vigilance to the Public Health Offices in different district against the possible threat of the deadly Dengue entering Nepal from neighbouring India, Siraha Public Health Office has continued to remain negligent on this issue. The Dengue scare started after the disease was identified to have spread in a village in Darbhanga, India, around 50 km south of the city of Jagayanagar bordering Siraha. Despite the heightened chances of the dengue virus entering Siraha following the news, the District Health Office, Siraha has shown no interest in this matter.

Stating that 13 of the 106 VDCs of Siraha lie on the Indian border, doctors have warned that appearance of the disease in any one of these will spell disaster for as many as 33 VDCs including Siraha municipality itself.

“Because the open border sees daily traffic to and from Darbhanga and Jayanagar, the danger of the virus spreading here is all too imminent,” medical sources opined.

According to sources, the district health office, Siraha has done little more than send letters to the health posts about the fatal disease.

Similarly, locals are irked at the apparent lack of concern in this matter by the concerned authorities in the face of mosquito epidemic following recent rainfalls and the subsequent stagnation of water.

India is one of many Asia-Pacific countries that have been identified by the World Health Organization (WHO) as at risk from dengue and health officials say that aircraft flying from India to Nepal may bring in the dengue virus. Dengue has killed a significant number of people and affected hundreds recently.

Apart from the open boarder, Nepal has airline flights coming in every day from several cities in India. According to Dr. G. D. Thakur, Chief of Disease Control at the Department of Health Services, a single entry of Ades Agepti (a type of mosquito that causes dengue epidemics) can breed thousands of others and airplane flights from India to Nepal every day pose the highest risk at present.”

“At the moment we have no equipment to detect cases of the mosquito-spread disease save Spinal testing and K 39 testing,” chief of Public Health office, Siraha, Dr. Raj Kumar Chaudhary said.

Meanwhile, police at Mahottari launched a strategic mosquito control and awareness programme on Sunday.

According to sources, the two-phase programme will include city cleaning and information dissemination.

Posted on: 2006–10–15 04:55:31 (Server Time)

link http://tinyurl.com/yklobj

Tink – at 09:39

But I thought that Dengue could only be contracted by mosquitoes; not transmissible by humans. If this is correct, why would they be thinking its contagious by air?

Tink – at 09:40

Just another follow-up thought. Dengue Fever has been around in this region for a long time. Why wouldn’t they know by now if its easily transmissible.

Dennis in Colorado – at 09:53

Tink – at 09:39 & 09:40:

Per Wikipedia:
“This infectious disease is manifested by a sudden onset of fever, with severe headache, muscle and joint pains (myalgias and arthralgias — severe pain gives it the name break-bone fever or bonecrusher disease) and rashes; the dengue rash is characteristically bright red petechia and usually appears first on the lower limbs and the chest - in some patients, it spreads to cover most of the body. There may also be gastritis with some combination of associated abdominal pain, nausea, vomiting or diarrhea.
Some cases develop much milder symptoms, which can, when no rash is present, be misdiagnosed as a flu or other viral infection. Thus, travelers from tropical areas may inadvertently pass on dengue in their home countries, having not being properly diagnosed at the height of their illness. Patients with dengue can only pass on the infection through mosquitoes or blood products while they are still febrile.”

Tink – at 09:57

Thanks Dennis in CO. So, doesn’t this confirm that it’s not Dengue they are dealing with here?

Pseudorandom – at 11:42

I think what they may be concerned about is the possibility of mosquitos carrying Dengue getting a free ride from India to Nepal via aircraft. That’s what I thought the sentence below meant: “… a single entry of Ades Agepti (a type of mosquito that causes dengue epidemics) can breed thousands of others and airplane flights from India to Nepal every day pose the highest risk at present.”

DennisCat 15:05

This is really Nepal, but this seemed the closest thread for it.

Diarrhea kills 2 in Dhading, over 50 ill “At least two persons died while over 50 others have been affected in an outbreak of diarrhea in Jyamarung village, Dhading district within the past one week. … Meanwhile, a similar report from Myagdi to the west says that more 145 persons have become bed-ridden with diarrhea in Takam village which has been afflicted since the last one week. ..

Four persons have already died while over 100 others became sick. The outbreak affected almost everyone in the village after they ate the flesh of a sick buffalo.

http://tinyurl.com/yydxop

DennisCat 15:13

The thing I notice is that Nepal doesn’t have a way to test for dengue. So when you see dengue reports from there it is just a “guess”.

Returning Nepali worker dies

 Nepali youth working in the Indian Capital New Delhi who was on his way home to Govindapur….Ram Kisun Rajput died … a few hours after he crossed into Nepal…

He had undergone severe vomiting throughout his journey and had also been suffering from fever for the last five days. …he might have been suffering from dengue, a contagious disease that is quickly spreading in India. ….

It is not a normal fever,” …, . it might have been dengue.” But there is no facility of to test dengue in Nepal. The kin of Rajput have already taken away the his body.

http://tinyurl.com/yy8f9u

enza – at 15:44

If an airplane carries an Aedes aegypti to an ecosysytem where it cannot survive there will be no spread of the virus. No vectors = no parasites.

This is like the old wives saying about when a pregnancy is in doubt : Time will tell. There will always be skeptics (genuine ones and those planted by tptb to calm the sheeple from ‘panic’).

Another old saying comes to mind, if it walks and quacks like a duck.. Well, if if walks and talks like panflu… Got the picture? But for now, time will tell.

Many Cats – at 19:54

With regard to the “Dengue May Come by Air” post. A veterinarian friend of mine told me that where she is (New Jersey) they had taken in for adoption a number of dogs abandoned from the Katrina episode and now the area is a hot spot for heartworm. The dogs are not infectious but mosquitoes in the area will feed on the blood of the infected dogs and spread the infection this way. If there are some mosquitoes in Nepal which could be capable of transmitting Dengue should they bite an infected person, that would be the kind of thing the health authorities would be worried about in this case.

18 October 2006

gharris – at 00:56

bump for visibility

witness – at 01:26

Hey Guys,What do you think this sounds like? “NUWAKOT,AUG 18 - Unprecedented epidemic of an unidentified disease has killed at least 14 people, including seven children, in Netini VDC, a far eastern village of the district,in the past few weeks. The disease, which was first detected in DOGS AND CHICKENS in the last week of June, had started spreading to humans. Major symptoms of the disease are high fever together with BLEEDING FROM THE NOSE AND MOUTH AT THE TIME OF DEATH.”-----It might be worthwhile to start mapping these reports.In my mind, this report leaves little doubt that India needs to be monitered. Although in my mind , the chicken may have already flown the coop.www.kantipuronline.com (unidentified disease kills 14)

Kim in OK – at 01:36

http://tinyurl.com/y69e4u

link to the above article

That’s Just Ducky! – at 01:49

Here’s another news story from Sept. 21,2006. Another village, 5 people dead, 2 children. Same unidentified disease.

http://english.people.com.cn/200609/…21_304959.html

Five die of unidentified disease in western Nepal

Five people died of unidentified disease at remote Chamchet village of western Gorkha district during last two weeks, local Nepal Samacharpatra daily reported here on Thursday.

“Five people including two children died of unidentified disease in the area, some 150 km northwest of capital Kathmandu,” the Nepali language daily reported, quoting Gopal Lama, former village chief, as saying.

But, officials at the District Health Office said they were uninformed about the disease in the area.

Although there is a sub-health post at the village, only a female health volunteer has been working there for last two years, according to daily.

Source: Xinhua

witness – at 01:53

Thankyou Kim, I need a computer pen pal. I have a rather serious illness that can really handicap me( mentally and physically)at times. I see many articles that I feel I should post,but since I still am not posting properly I shy away.Please bear with me. I did try to follow the directions someone kindly posted,but I quess I just need someone to show me.

That’s Just Ducky! – at 02:05

Witness, it sounds like more of the “anything but bird flu” disease.

anon mc – at 02:28

witness: Your past few posts have been some of the most concerning to date. You are doing a fantastic service for the wiki. Please don’t feel you need to shy away for any reason. Your information is vital to everyone here, no matter how you post it. GET WELL and THANKS FOR ALL YOU DO!!!!!!!!!

witness – at 02:45

Anon mc-You don’t know how much that means to me. Thankyou so much.

Many Cats – at 02:49

witness: Ditto to anon mc’s comments!!!! There are a lot of us out here who consider your contributions to be a huge asset to the wiki! PLEASE FEEL BETTER SOON!!!!! :)

anon mc – at 02:53

witness: I even copied your post over to the news thread! Hope that was OK. I showed it was reported by you. Everybody should know what you have found!

witness – at 03:13

Thanks ,both of you.As my husband would say” Don’t encourage her”,but you did, so here goes. I hope someone can find the link.-----“Dengue cases on rise, toll increases”“Cases of dengue fever are on the rise not just in Delhi but in other states as well.In the past 24 hours, five more people have died across the country.----Unheard complaints---EVERY HOUSE IN THE AREA IS REPORTING CASES OF FEVER,BUT RESIDENTS SAY THEIR COMPLAINTS GO UNHEARD.ONE OF THE FAMILIES LOST THEIR 14-YEAR-OLD SON RAKESH JUST A FEW DAYS AGO.”HE HAD FEVER AND WAS BLEEDING FROM THE MOUTH.,”SAID A RELATIVE OF RAKESH.------Every home has someone sick! That doesn’t sound good.www.Ndtv.com

Many Cats – at 03:22

I have never done this before, so let’s hope there’s no sidescroll…

try here:

http://tinyurl.com/yya82a

Many Cats – at 03:38

witness: I did it!!! See, you are even inspiring those around you to try new things! I copied the http:// stuff which showed what site I was on, then I came back here and clicked the “tinyurl service” in the blue box below. I pasted it into the spot on their site. They generated a tiny url and I copied that and pasted it into the post here. When you are feeling up to it, you should give it a try. The worst it will do is cause sidescroll and pogge will have to fix it. People would rather have sidescroll than not have news. I have made plenty of editing errors, not to mention spelling errors here which are embarassing, but hey, I figure you guys can’t see me so I can live with it. Then maybe you’ll get cocky enough to learn how to post in different sizes. I would have done different colors, but I forgot how… maybe I’ll try that tomorrow. :)

HL – at 07:09

Here is India’s recent action for bird flu http://tinyurl.com/y5mal5 And the news gets worse with Dengue causing a 10% kill rate as of today, the biggest jump I have seen, its either a misdiagnosis or Dengue has mutated which seems unlikely. http://tinyurl.com/y8z5xx Same story with link from AP http://tinyurl.com/yyg284

What I find amazing is that they are currently able to confirm a very small percentage of cases as actual dengue. So, in other words, there is a rapidly spreading disease in India that causes flu like symptons, death, and spreads to every household with at least one person in the house ill according to the reports. I’ll stand by my one week left and counting to ferret out the truth of the matter, but it certainly is not looking good at this time. http://tinyurl.com/y8z5xx

cottontop – at 09:09

Hospitals crumble under dengue pressure cnn-ibn posted monday 10/16/06

  New Delhi-Dengue may not be an epidemic yet, but our public healthcare systems is already crumbling under it’s pressure with All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS), and other hospitals already running short of blood and beds.
  Since the deadly viral broke, hospitals across the national capital region have been strugling to deal with the onslaught.  What makes the situation worse, is that most of them don’t have blood separators, which means all blood samples are sent to National Institute of Communicable Diseases for tests.  There is often a delay in delivery of reports which delays treatment as well.  

To add to it, there is a perpetual blood shortage too.

  Offically, dengue has not been declared an epidemic yet, but that could be because the numbers are often under quoted.  An average government hospital gets 100–200 dengue suspects everyday.  even a mild fever has been enough for people to come rushing.
need more food – at 09:17

Witness, I remembered reading something very similar to the “mystery” deaths last year in Nepal’s. I just spent the last 2 hours searching for it. It sounds very similar to the deaths this year. I do not know if they are in the same region as this years or not. I never did find the article I was looking for because it talked about it being a remote village. I searched for days last year trying to find info and that one article was all I ever found. Please remember these articles are dated 2005!

http://tinyurl.com/ykll5s Mysterious disease tolls 9 in eastern Nepal

www.chinaview.cn 2005–08–28 01:45:29

    KATHMANDU, Aug. 28 (Xinhuanet) — Mysterious disease tolls reached nine after two more people died on Saturday of the disease that broke out in a eastern district in Nepal, a local government officer confirmed here Sunday. 

    “The two of them died within hours after being infected by the disease on Saturday night in Beltar area of Udayapur district, some 300 km east of Kathmandu,” Jeevan Prasad Oli, chief district officer, told reporters. 

    The outbreak of the unknown disease already claimed the lives of seven patients in Beltar, Sudarpur and Siddipur villages of the district in the past few weeks. 

    The symptoms included high fever, headache as well as bleeding from the nose and vomiting blood, Oli noted, adding, “Patients infected with the disease have been taken to a hospital in Dharan city for treatment.”

Promeds take on above: (I removed links from articles see their website for complete listing)

 http://tinyurl.com/y33ly3

At least 5 people have succumbed to a mysterious disease in eastern Nepal, a government officer confirmed here Tuesday [23 Aug 2005].

“The unknown disease has claimed the lives of 3 patients in Beltar village and 2 in Siddipur village, Udyapur district, some 300 km east of Kathmandu,” Jeevan Prasad Oli, chief district officer, told reporters.

The symptoms included high fever, headache as well as bleeding from the nose and vomiting blood, Oli noted, adding: “Patients infected with the disease have been taken to a hospital in Dharan city for treatment.”

A 3-member medical team has already been sent to the disease-affected area, Oli said. ProMED-mail would appreciate more information on the above case clusters.

Checking the symptom complex with Gideon (Global Infectious Disease and Epidemiology Network ProMED-mail would appreciate more information on the above case clusters.

Checking the symptom complex with Gideon (Global Infectious Disease and Epidemiology Network <, the most likely disease, given the symptoms presented above, would be one of the old world hantaviruses. Searching the available literature, there is an article in the Japanese literature which identified an overall seropositivity rate of 8.7 percent of 322 specimens from patients attending outpatient clinics at the Tribhuvan University Teaching Hospital in Kathmandu. Of note, a higher positivity rate of 12 percent was seen in those living outside of the Kathmandu valley (5.1 percent), suggesting hantavirus infection was more prevalent in rural areas. Given the above information, hantavirus infection should remain in the differential diagnosis, at least until more information on these cases is available. -, the most likely disease, given the symptoms presented above, would be one of the old world hantaviruses. Searching the available literature, there is an article in the Japanese literature (abstract in English) <http://www.jarmam.gr.jp/jarmam/8-2/e/2.html> which identified an overall seropositivity rate of 8.7 percent of 322 specimens from patients attending outpatient clinics at the Tribhuvan University Teaching Hospital in Kathmandu. Of note, a higher positivity rate of 12 percent was seen in those living outside of the Kathmandu valley (5.1 percent), suggesting hantavirus infection was more prevalent in rural areas. Given the above information, hantavirus infection should remain in the differential diagnosis, at least until more information on these cases is available. -

side note: I now have a new respect for those working on our news stories after searching, copying, pasting, tiny urling. re-reading, deleting, and ETC, ETC, ETC. I give you a standing ovation from me. Hats Off to you… Great Job!!!

need more food – at 09:21

Wow, that was really long, next time I get wild and decide to post I will just post links only… Sorry

Snowhound1 – at 10:18

Chikungunya in India WHO

http://tinyurl.com/y5qc5f

17 October 2006

From February 2006 to 10 October 2006, the WHO Regional Office for South-East Asia has reported 151 districts in 8 states/provinces of India affected by chikungunya fever (see below). The affected states are Andhra Pradesh, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Kerala and Delhi. More than 1.25 million suspected cases have been reported from the country, which 752,245 were from Karnataka and 258,998 from Maharashtra provinces. In some areas reported attack rates have reached 45%.

A team from the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, health officials from Kerala and staff from the WHO India Office and Regional Office for South-East Asia investigated the outbreak in Kerala. They carried out clinical and epidemiological examinations of suspected cases in hospitals and at home, and collected clinical samples. An entomological survey revealed high densities of Aedes albopictus in the affected areas as well as in areas not affected by the disease….

On the fence – at 11:33

Notice the first 6 letters in Chikungunya. Coincidence? I think not!

Snowhound1 – at 11:36

On the fence…LOL

The day after tomorrow – at 12:03

chikungunagetya

Spirit in the Wind – at 12:03

huh? c h i k u n Ohhhhhhhhh! LOL!

INFOMASS – at 12:12

We have had several weeks of various diseases in India attributed to Chikungunya, dengue, etc. but has there been any testing for H5N1 yet? The high CFR (if correct) suggests either something other than these “regular” diseases or unusually virulent forms. In Nepal, the remoteness and lack of human resources make testing difficult, but in New Delhi? Is it just that nobody there thinks these are unusual occurances? Or are they testing and not reporting?

cottontop – at 12:23

in the article I posted earlier here, 09:09, they stated their lack of blood supply. Makes me wonder if it isn’t haemorrhagic dengue fever. I read an article that said the platlet count had to fall to like 50,000 before they would give blood. something like that.

Albert – at 12:38

As mentioned earlier in this and other threads, the symptoms of dengue vary wildly. Most people affected do not report to hospitals, only the worst cases do, if they can. Calculating the CFR from the cases in hospitals therefore certainly gives too high a figure. Most of the time, when we have patients with high fever and really feeling lousy, we never find out if it was dengue or not. It is true that no or almost no testing for H5N1 is done in India or Nepal or anywhere else in Sounth Asia. In my opinion, the reasons for that are that they do not suspect anything sinister is going on except for the dengue, chikunkunya and normal influenze viruses, the cost associated with the tests, and the absence of specialised labs in most places. The Authorities do not suspect an H5N1 pandemic breaking out in this region at this time.

cottontop – at 13:08

albert at 12:38

if they are not testing for H5N1, how can the Authorities suspect that an H5N1 pandemic is not breaking out in that region? Perhaps not a pandemic, but the start of confirmation of yes it’s here or no it’s not here. It just sounds to me, that they are really overtaxed, and overwhelmed, they just don’t know what to do, let alone think.

INFOMASS – at 13:21

Albert at 12:38: Thank you for an informed and balanced answer. But couldn’t the WHO donate some PCR kits? Even a sampling of suspicious cases would either show their suppositions to be correct or raise a warning flag that something else is going on. With H5N1 being such a potential threat, surely the cost of a few thusand dollars is worth it? Or doI have my medical facts wrong? Is there a spare NAMRU available to help out?

INFOMASS – at 13:23

Albert at 12:38: Thank you for an informed and balanced answer. But couldn’t the WHO donate some PCR kits? Even a sampling of suspicious cases would either show their (the Indian medical authority’s) benign suppositions to be correct or raise a warning flag that something else is going on. With H5N1 being such a potential threat, surely the cost of a few thusand dollars is worth it? Or doI have my medical facts wrong? Is there a spare NAMRU available to help out?

cottontop – at 13:37

albert- Why don’t they ask WHO to come in and help them? Lord knows they need all the help they can get!

witness – at 14:26

New Delhi,Oct18 ----“ Sharda Devi shivers, despite being covered by a thick blanket as her daughter Malti gives her a cold compress. Unable to find a bed in the hospital due to an influx of dengue patients,SHARDA HAS SPENT TWO DAYS ON THE PAVEMENT OUTSIDE THE EMERGENCY WARD OF THE ALL INDIA INSTITUTE OF MEDCICAL SCIENCES HERE.”-“MANY DENGUE PATIENTS, LIKE SHARDA DEVI, COVERED COMPLETELY IN THICK BLANKETS, SHARE SPACE ON THE SIDEWALKS DUE TO THE LACK OF BEDS IN THE OVERCROWDED DENGUE WARD.”----I think this scene speaks for itself. This coupled with “EVERY HOME REPORTING FEVER”. Whatever disease this is,it is alarming.How big is New Delhi anyway? That is a lot of people sick.www.in.news.yahoo.com (under:The misery of dengue omnipresent at AIIMS)

enza – at 14:49

Albert, with all due respect, under that model India, Nepal, et al will never have h5n1. ‘You can’t find what you dont look for’. We would like to believe that this is not h5n1, but if they are not testing for it then that shadow of a doubt remains.

witness – at 14:55

Given what’s happening in New Delhi right now, this might make the hair on the back of your neck stand up.”DELHI LINK TO BENGAL ‘MYSTERY’ FEVER 800 SICK IN BADURIA” bARASAT OCT. 8 “A goldsmith who came home from Delhi around mid-August could have carried mystery fever to Baduria. Health department sources said the first case of fever,was dectected on Aug 18. The second case of high fever with similar symptoms was reported on Sept 1, a health official said. AROUND 800 PEOPLE IN 20 VILLAGES NOW HAVE FEVER,STILL IN THE REALM OF “MYSTERY”.THIRY-NINE PEOPLE IN 20 VILLAGES WHO HAVE HIGH FEVER AND SEVERE JOINT PAIN HAVE REPORTED SICK OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.-------MANY BADURIA RESIDENTS ARE PLANNING TO SHIFT THEIR CHILDREN TO RELATIVE’S PLACES ELSEWHERE.”AS MORE AND MORE PEOPLE ARE FALLING ILL, I WOULD MOVE MY CHILDREN TO A RELATIVE’S HOUSE NEAR CALCUTTA. I HAVE TO STAY HERE TO EARN A LIVING.” SAID SANJIB DAS.

witness – at 14:56

And I bet you’d like a link. www.telegraphindia.com

Tink – at 14:57

According to the article below, health officials report that the number of people sick with Dengue is not unusual for this time of year (Oct. - Feb.) After reading this article, does it alter anyone’s suspicions that they are really dealing with H5N1?

http://tinyurl.com/ykwzaf

cottontop – at 15:09

that’s just what they need. taking “possibly infected children to relatives houses, to possible infected them. that’s how it spreads, if this is a contagious disease, and not dengue.

anonymous – at 15:13

Albert, what authorities? Where did you get that information? Can you post a link to what they are saying and WHY they “do not suspect an H5N1 pandemic breaking out in this region at this time”.

witness – at 15:39

Given the one of the main symptoms they are dealing with in my last post, I found this interesting. Quote from John Barry’s book.Page 234 “Patients would writhe from agonizing pain in their joints. Doctors would diagnose dengue, also known as breakbone fever.Patients would suffer extreme fever and chills, shuddering , shivering, then huddling under blankets”. ---- This last sentence sounds like the patients on the sidewalk outside the hospital. ---- And last, but not least, my neighbor told me about a week ago that his aunt and uncle sent their children to relatives also during the outbreak of 1918. The circumstances seem so similar and their reaction seems so similar. We can learn so much from history.

cottontop – at 15:57

in 1996, when the first major outbreak of dengue occured, 423 deaths and 10,252 cases where reported from Delhi and neighboring states. In another outbreak in 2003, 215 lost their lives, and 12,754 people were infected. -zeenews.com

these people know what dengue is. why are headlines being reported, that they don’t know what is hitting them, it could be this, not sure what that is, ect. Tink at 14:57, link really sounds to cut and dry from what we’ve been reading.

Anon_451 – at 18:35

Albert – at 12:38 I want to believe that you are correct. However If I tell you that I have a bird, with a long beak, web feet and migrates every year you will tell me I have a duck.

That is what appears to be happening in India. They know it is Dengue season and so they are looking for dengue. No different then my going to my doctor here during Flu season, will all the symptoms of the Flu and him treating me for the Flu when I really have west Nile virus.

You do not know what you have until you are able to look it in the eye (microscope).

I just want to be sure that it is dengue and that they are giving the people infected the right treatment.

By the way my bird is a pelican.

OKbirdwatcherat 19:17

cottontop -

“these people know what dengue is.”

Excellent point.

Tom DVM – at 19:38

Thanks everyone for your continued efforts on Indonesia and India. There is no doubt that the ground is shifting as we speak and I personally feel less comfortable now then I did even a month ago…and that’s saying a lot because I wasn’t very comfortable a month ago either.

You guys/gals are chasing this like a hound chases a rabbit…I have no doubt when it happens I will be one of the fortunate few who will know it before many in the country where it is happening.

Chasing these diffuse stories is, in my opinion, the most important job on flu wiki at the moment because it is starting to look like the corner of India-China-Nepal may be ‘ground zero’.

Thanks again for all your efforts on our behalf!!

cottontop – at 19:38

okbirdwatcher- how many cases have they diagnosed between 1996 and now of dengue? and suddenly they “don’t know what their looking at? “It might be, might not?” This just keeps getting weirder. Too many pieces missing, to form the big picture.

Goju – at 19:49

Tom DVM - don’t forget Pakastan…..

Pixie – at 20:03

For all of you following the dengue, the hospitals in Kalamantan, Indonesia (island of Borneo, shared with Malaysia), have also been overwhelmed recently with dengue patients. It’s a dengue squeeze-play.

Thousands of West Kalimantan citizens were attacked by Dengue Fever

16/10/2006 07:16 / Liputtan6 / http://tinyurl.com/y3vb4e

The plague of dengue fever raged in Pontianak and the other area in West Kalimantan as far as Ahad (15/10).

Not not all that 1,200 casualties that most children were treated since the last two months. Moreover 15 of the patients died.

One of the hospitals that treated the dengue fever patient in Pontianak was RS Saint Antonius. The number of numbers of the patient’s casualties made the hospital biggest in this city was overwhelmed. <snip>

Jane – at 20:09

From an earlier Witness post, a calm description of dengue fever and hemorraghic dengue. (from NDTV, in India, I guess)

http://www.doctorndtv.com/feature/feature.asp?ID=182

Tom DVM – at 20:15

Goju. Thanks. I am watching China and North Korea.

Anon_451 – at 20:18

Now what we really need is a way to watch Africa.

cottontop – at 23:07

sharp rise in Degue cases New Delhi-oct. 18,06 (yesterday for them)

Dengue cases across the country registered a sharp rise with reports of 713 more patients afflicted with the disease even as seven persons succombed to the viral fever talking the death toll to 116. While 6,423 persons were afflicted with dengue county wide, Delhi with 1,731 patients, maharashta witnessed a spurt in the number of fresh cases which more tha doubles overnight from 240, (yesterday), to 580 today (oct.19.) according to the national vector borne disease control programme. 22 people have died due to dengue in maharashta. Kerala reported 794 cases, while rajastan, 781 people have been afflicted with the disease and 11 deaths have been reported.

                                           -zeenews.com

I wonder how many of these people have actually been tested and confirmed as dengue?

witness – at 23:09

“KMC openly hides dengue” Koklata,Oct. 17: The Left Front Board of Kolkata Muncipal Corp.,which was till date only charged with suppressing facts and misleading citzens, today openly declared that henceforth facts and figures related to the dengue outbreak will not go out of the four walls of the small red fort.Dr. Subodh Dey said:”WE WILL NOT DISCLOSE ANY STATISTICS REGARDING DENGUE AS IT ONLY CREATES AMBIGUITY AMONG THE CITIZENS”.-------MEANWHILE,AT LEAST 350 PEOPLE IN BADURIA WERE REPORTED TO HAVE TAKEN ILL BY AN “UNKNOWN FEVER”SINCE SATURDAY.www.the statesman.net

cottontop – at 23:20

witness- that is certainly interesting! why use the word “ambiguity”? How would it create “ambiguity among the citizens”? all those people want is the truth.And so do we. They either have an honest outbreak of dengue, or they don’t. To my mind, that statement says alot.

Kim in OK – at 23:26

http://tinyurl.com/yz952t

Link to witness @23:09

Tom DVM – at 23:31

Anon 451. Too many balls in the air!!! What do you think?

Anon_451 – at 23:37

Tom DVM – at 23:31 Yeah In my Very HUMBLE opinion, It is looking like early spring 1918. Think you may be right about first of year for virulent strain (possible second wave).

Tom DVM – at 23:50

Hope not…not ready for it!!…actually, I will never be ready for it…we have to be wrong…oh well!!!!

19 October 2006

LMWatBullRunat 00:14

it’s just normal pnuemonia. Now where have I heard that before?

Anon_451 – at 00:18

LMWatBullRun – at 00:14 John Barry’s book discussing the Spring out break and how the Doctors looked at it at the time.

Albert – at 00:50

Anon 451 “Albert – at 12:38 I want to believe that you are correct. However If I tell you that I have a bird, with a long beak, web feet and migrates every year you will tell me I have a duck.

That is what appears to be happening in India. They know it is Dengue season and so they are looking for dengue. No different then my going to my doctor here during Flu season, will all the symptoms of the Flu and him treating me for the Flu when I really have west Nile virus.

You do not know what you have until you are able to look it in the eye (microscope).

I just want to be sure that it is dengue and that they are giving the people infected the right treatment.

By the way my bird is a pelican. “

LOL ! Sorry but I am a biologist and an amateur bird watcher… You did not fool me with the bird analogy ! Good try though!

You can’t see viruses through a microscope. You need sophisticated instruments, trained personnel, reagents, a suitable lab environment, and a good reason to do it. Now go to rural India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, and look for yourself. All or most of the above are missing.

I don’t see any “official” worry here that the present number of patients, symptoms, morbidity or mortality would be caused by H5N1. That’s not my opinion, that’s what I observe here, and last week in India. Personally, I am prepped to some extent but not “very” worried right now. My wife and kids have gone to our country farm house on the border between Bangladesh and India for a week’s holiday for midterm break and my main concerns are road accidents and dengue, in that order. My 6 and 7-year old kids have witnessed the birth of a calf yesterday and it is only a matter of time before they will ask me how it got in there. That is another worry :)

Anon_451 – at 01:04

Albert – at 00:50 Your family sounds wonderful and I know you enjoy them. My youngest is 30 and I am having to answer the same questions for my grand children.

Please do not think ill of me but I have learned to never trust any government where money is involved and having H5N1 in India would cost your country a lot of money.

I have seen Dengue up close and it is not pretty so my heart goes out to anyone who has to endure it.

My call for the WHO to come in and help is a direct result of the problem of equipment and supplies. You have the doctors as many immigrate to the US and are very good at what they do.

witness – at 01:05

More from Nepal---Kathmandu,Oct 9- A child died of pneumonia in Saptari monday while undergoing treatment a the Koshi hospital. This marks the fourth death of an infant from the pneumonia scare that has gripped eastern Nepal.Previously, three infants brought to the same hospital for treatment had died within a span of seven days from pneumonia. Around 80 children are undergoing treatment at the hospital for pneumonia and dysentery.DESPITE DOCTOR’S ASSURANCE THAT A RISE IN SUCH AILMENTS IS COMMON DURING PERIODS OF SEASONAL CHANGE,AN INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF PATIENTS AT ALL THE LOCAL HOSPITALS AND CLINCS SAY OTHERWISE..THE SITUATION HAS ESCALATED TO A POINT WHERE TWO PATIENTS SHARE A SINGLE BED.www.duryognivaran.org

witness – at 01:05

More from Nepal---Kathmandu,Oct 9- A child died of pneumonia in Saptari monday while undergoing treatment a the Koshi hospital. This marks the fourth death of an infant from the pneumonia scare that has gripped eastern Nepal.Previously, three infants brought to the same hospital for treatment had died within a span of seven days from pneumonia. Around 80 children are undergoing treatment at the hospital for pneumonia and dysentery.DESPITE DOCTOR’S ASSURANCE THAT A RISE IN SUCH AILMENTS IS COMMON DURING PERIODS OF SEASONAL CHANGE,AN INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF PATIENTS AT ALL THE LOCAL HOSPITALS AND CLINCS SAY OTHERWISE..THE SITUATION HAS ESCALATED TO A POINT WHERE TWO PATIENTS SHARE A SINGLE BED.www.duryognivaran.org

Reader – at 01:58

It seems Asia is not the only place being hit by dengue, Central and South America now too.

http://tinyurl.com/yanrbo

Where next?

Newsie – at 02:14

Albert at 00:50.

Thank you for your rational and well articulated posts.

There are many here who are so sure an H5N1 pandemic is just around the corner that they are desperate for proof of their worst fears.

You are correct, there is no reason at all to believe at this point that India is looking at anything other than a seasonal outbreak of dengue.

People need to remain vigilant, but they also need to exhale once and a while. Stare at something long enough and you start seeing things that aren’t there.

My message - everybody relax. India has a lot more expertise in diagnosing/handling dengue than fluwikians have in trying to read H5N1 into every disease outbreak that happens around the world.

Just because symptoms are similar doesn’t mean tests need to be run to prove it is not H5N1. India doesn’t owe the anxious members of this forum anything. I would also suggest that it is somewhat insulting to suggest that you know better what is going on in India and what India needs than the people of India themselves.

Again, relaxc and exhale. : )

witness – at 02:35

Reader- I saw the reports coming in from South America also.Remember when Mike Leavitt was called away from the Kansas summit to the White House?The very next day he flew to Panama. I have been watching the region ever since.

JWB – at 07:12

witness – at 02:35 Remember when Mike Leavitt was called away from the Kansas summit to the White House?The very next day he flew to Panama.


Could you or anyone else elaborate a little about that?

INFOMASS – at 07:19

Newsie: I agree that panic is always a bad reaction. But H5N1 is an unusual virus and past experience may not prepare us to deal with it. Testing a sample of panflu-like cases with WHO funds does not strike me as an excessive or unwise step at this point. Tom DVM’s point that the virus is drifting and may not test positive on existing PCR devices is a fair one, but then we would have some false negatives. It would be bad for panflu planners but not for panic. If this virus is like or worse than the 1918 one, there would be few in India that could deal with it based on experience - and flu of that type and dengue are easily mixed up.

Niah – at 07:21

Dengue fever kills 8 more in Pakistani city (Reuters)

19 October 2006

KARACHI - “Mosquito-born dengue fever has killed eight more people in Pakistan’s southern city of Karachi, raising the death toll to 20 over the past four months, officials said on Thursday.

[snip]

“We have had eight deaths since the beginning of October. People are worried with this outbreak but we are keeping things under control,” Abdul Majid, a senior official in the health ministry of the southern province of Sindh, told Reuters”

[snip]

Majid said there had been around 1,000 suspected cases in Karachi and some 290 of them tested positive for dengue fever. He said special emergency units had been set up in the hospitals to deal with the disease. “

http://tinyurl.com/y55bes

Niah – at 07:26

JWB – at 07:12

I found this, not sure if this is what witness – at 02:35 was referring to, though. :)

October 6, 2006 — The Honorable Michael O. Leavitt, Secretary of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), met on September 25–26, 2006, with Ministers of Health from Central America to discuss collaboration between HHS and their Ministries to set the stage for health diplomacy directed at improving the health of their people and the health infrastructure of their countries. The Ministers of Health were in Washington, D.C., to attend the 47th Directing Council of the Pan American Health Organization.

http://tinyurl.com/y7affg

Niah – at 07:39

JWB – at 07:12

I’m sorry JWB…the meeting above was in D.C., so it’s definitely not it.

The most recent visit I could find is June 8, 2006, here is an article and link:

“U.S. Health Secretary Urges Central America To Plan for Pandemic Leavitt, in Panama, outlines hemispheric partnership in disease prevention

“It is estimated that, in all of Latin America, about 766,000 people died during the Great Pandemic of 1918,” said Leavitt. “It was especially virulent in rural areas of Central and South America, and it touched many nations deeply.”

[snip]

“United States health experts are working with their counterparts in Panama to enhance: surveillance capacity, laboratory testing, diagnosis, treatment and epidemiological investigations,” Leavitt said.”“

http://tinyurl.com/y4cbt7

…My son woke up at 4:00 a.m with a cough and fever , he is back in bed, but I’m awake now… :-)

Niah – at 07:50

‘’‘Four new deaths by fever in Dominican

Holy Sunday, 19 oct (PL) Excerpt, translated from Spanish’‘’ :

“Four new deaths by fever reported today in Dominican the National Direction of Epidemiology, with which they enlarge 44 the victims of the illness and the number of cases is of four thousand 968.

Of that total attended in the hospitals, four thousand 794 cases are of classic fever and 174 of the type hemorragic, said the authorities of health.

The behavior of the epidemic, they aim the experts, declares a tendency downward, reckoned in official media in more 70 percent al to consider the decrease of the flow of patients to the bodies of guard of the hospitals.

It they passed week the cases confirmed were 336, smaller figure with respect to the previous when they passed from thousand them diagnosed each seven days.

Nevertheless, the authorities of health declared that they will maintain the warning and epidemiological caution until next the end of November, and will continue actions to eliminate nurseries of the mosquito Aedes Aegypti, transmitter of the illness. “

http://tinyurl.com/ygy4se

Niah – at 08:03

‘’‘Dengue can be diagnosed on first day

Thursday October 19 2006 11:41 IST’‘’

BANGALORE: Bio-Rad Laboratories, a multinational manufacturer and distributor of life science research products and clinical diagnostic have launched a new test kit for dengue screening called the PLATELIAO DENGUE NS1 Ag Assay in the country.

This test is based on the specific detection of dengue virus NS1 antigen.

‘’‘According to the Country Manager of Bio-Rad India Dhiren Wagle, the existing dengue tests identify the virus indirectly by detecting antibodies, which are produced only four to six days after the appearance of the first symptoms.

The new test is able to detect the virus from the first day of symptoms.’‘’

By enabling diagnosis several days earlier, this new test allows an early diagnosis of primary and secondary dengue acute infections.

Wagle said, “Early detection of dengue is critical as it means that we can provide the appropriate treatment as soon as possible. This test kit is available in Bangalore and other metros too,” he added.

Wagle stressed that the routine tests used to screen the dengue viral infection are based on the detection of specific dengue virus antibodies.

However, these particular antibodies are only produced several days after the first clinical signs appear four to six days for a primary infection.

The new test enables detection of NS1 dengue virus antigen as soon as the first clinical signs appear, added Wagle.”

http://tinyurl.com/yjndrd

JWB – at 08:37

Thanks Niah.

witness – at 12:31

Yes,Thanks Niah. What would I do without you dedicated people to back up the things I say? Half the time they sound crazy. And Infomass, your suggestion about the WHO is obviously a rational and balanced one.No naion is an island. What they do or don’t do can affect us all someday.

Niah – at 13:26

JWB – at 08:37 :

witness – at 12:31 :

your welcome! :-)

Dennis in Colorado – at 13:43

Niah – at 08:03
The new test is interesting information, so please excuse my skeptical mindset. That story sounds more like a press release than it does a news article. The only source of information was a set of quotations from the manager of Bio-Rad Labs. Also, according to the website, “The objects of [Newindpress.com]include, among other things, carrying on the business of network and software.”

Niah – at 13:58

Dennis in Colorado – at 13:43

Hi Dennis in Colorado…I was up at four in the morning this morning because my son wasn’t feeling good, then got him back to bed and I couldn’t sleep. Started browsing news stories on the net, and I must admit my brain might not have been 100% functional. :-) It never occurred to me that it might be a press release, which it may well be.

I just couldn’t believe it, I thought to myself “this new test should clear up all the ambiguity regarding the suspected Dengue cases in India…Either they are, or they aren’t Dengue.” Unfortunately, if this is in fact a press release, I think your right to have some healthy skepticism. Niah

Niah – at 14:18

More India News

‘’‘Twelve die of encephalitis, malaria, 4 from dengue in WB “Siliguri, Oct 19′’‘ : Twelve persons have died of encephalitis and malaria in government hospitals in West Bengal’s Malda district in the past one week, while another four have died of dengue and another 500 affected in the rest of the state.

Malda district magistrate Chittaranjan Das told PTI that of the 12, eight were children and four women.

He said he did not have the figures of those affected as it could not be supplied by the health department.

[snip]

Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee said that the situation was under control. “

http://tinyurl.com/yynqa3

Dennis in Colorado – at 14:23

Niah – at 13:58
Even if it is a press release, I hope that their product can help in the diagnostic area. We need all the help we can get at this point. I guess we just need to find out if it is being used by anyone.

witness – at 15:12

“Unreported cases of dengue increasing enormously in rural India”-- “The epidemic is serious and the government is doing little about it.Unofficially, THE RURAL SECTOR IS SEEING HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF CASES AND VERY FEW ARE GETTING ADEQUATE MEDICAL ATTENTION.”www.indiadaily.com

Dennis in Colorado – at 15:31

More direct link to above:

http://www.indiadaily.com/editorial/13770.asp

witness – at 17:45

MY DISCLAIMER; I AM NOT SAYING THIS IS H5N1. I FOUND IT OF INTEREST AND I THOUGHT OTHERS MIGHT ALSO. “Cuba raging war against dengue fever”--- “ There is a pile of dead people nobody talks about,said Arturo , a restaurant worker recuited by the Communist Party to fumigate Havana homes.”A lot of people have gotten sick. A lot.”Another technician working on the spraying campaign said wards were set up for infected people at Salvador Allende Hospital in Havana.----“We don’t have an epidemic, we don’t have anything.”said an official at Havana’s international midical center,a hospital aimed at tourists.------Seeing how these different countries downplay ‘any’ disease how are we to ever know?This was in the Miami Herald.

Fookie crusher – at 18:16

What speaks against these cases being influenza is that the spread appears to be too localised, if it was as infectious as influenza it would have surely spread into countries whos surveilance is more thorough. In regards to India you must understand that in a country so densely populated panic has a very ugly side with many direct casualties. Perhaps it is just for the first time we are looking at the real toll that disease brings in other parts of the world. Just consider the death toll from tubercelosis in Kathmandu it is enourmous. Do not read too much into what you are seeing and consider not only the cost of your preps but what level of financial aid can we offer to bring these terrible situations under control. This is another step in our consensual world awareness that is brought to us at last by a perceived threat to our own well being.

diana – at 18:55

This mosquito has been noted in New Jersey, which means it is in our southern states as well. If it is manifesting itself (Dengue) in Havana, we can expect it by next summer the earliest, or in 08, 09. We have had West Nile for years.From the articles in the Star Ledger that I noted a few weeks ago it appears they are expecting trouble in the future.

diana – at 19:00

The mosquito that carries Dengue was first found in Texas in a load of tires. I think in the 90′s. So far I haven’t heard of Dengue in the U.S..

Urdar-Norway – at 19:06

the vector is a moscito, but its a mans virus.. the idea is not to prevent mosqitos to go by airplanes but infected people. That doesent mean its a H-H, its a H-Mosqito-H spread… That why its a vector. Other infections may have other vectors like sewage, needles etc.

“A vector in biology has several meanings: -An organism (biotic vector, pollinator) or medium (abioti vector, e.g. wind) wich transports pollen to a stigma. -An organism that transmits disease by conveying pathogens from one host to another (vector insect) -A virus used to deliver genetic material into a cell -A piece of DNA meant to carry DNA fragments into a host cell”. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vector

“Traditionally in medicine, a vector is an organism that does not cause disease itself but which spreads infection by conveying pathogens from one host to another. Species of mosquito, for example, serve as vectors for the deadly disease Malaria. This sense of “biological vector” is the primary one in epidemiology and in common speech.” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vector_%28biology%29

Urdar-Norway – at 19:14

If this is an extraordinary event we are witnessing, its a result of global warming.. The nature is on its move. We see more and more examples of it. Ticks in scandinavia, Tiger moscitoes from asia invading s europe.. It will be a stressfull future for all of us.. My idea is to help it, moving trees from south to north, The changes are so quick that nature it self cant polinate quick enough, with massive forrest deaths as a possible result.. The oak is comming back :D

Wolf – at 19:16

diana – at 19:00 The asian tiger mosquito was officially confirmed in Houston TX in 1985. I remember at the time I was quite surprised at that news because I’d been bitten by the bugger in the late 70′s in the Carolina’s and Florida while in a tactical unit in the army. I’ve always been interested in, well, stuff, and noted the daytime biting and ability to pierce through serious clothing. Also the fact that it is rather pretty (the stripes are quite striking). Being from the north, I thought it was yet another in a long series of southern bugs to make my acquaintance. But that critter was here some years before somebody ID’d it in Houston.

diana – at 19:28

Thank the lord for our little and big brown bats that flit around. Was watching them tonight as I drove down the Avenue of Sugar Maples. Warm nite.Well, if they’ve been around since the 70′s and 80′s I guess I won’t worry myself overmuch.But if they are in Cuba, and the Dominican Republic and Panama and it is racking up deaths, it is something for tourists to consider. I’ve known numerous people who went to Havana, Panama etc.

gardner – at 19:47

diana – at 19:28. And dragonflies, who patrol the world eating mosquitoes during the daytime while the bats are sleeping. Nice system they’ve got going. Dragonflies by day, bats by night.

Wolf – at 19:54

RE: Skeeters - What I found most interesting (and did not know) was that certain infections are passed on to offspring. I’d always thought that, well, they were what they ate and it ended there. The fact that the broods developing in tires and puddles carry disease organisms which mama harbored casts a whole new light on things.

witness – at 23:45

I wasn’t sure at first I was reading this number right.”13,26,000 CHIKUNGUNYA CASES ,THE COUNT IS STILL ON. TILL NOW,THERE ARE 13,26,OOO CASES OF CHIKUNGUNYA HAS BEEN REGISTERED ACROSS THE COUNTRY.”

witness – at 23:46

LINK IS www.indiadaily.org

That’s Just Ducky! – at 23:49

Hey, those of you who’ve been tracking this for a year or more, did you see this much disease in these areas last year? Is this normal? Thousands, tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands I recently read somewhere - don’t remember which country or which disease, I can’t keep it all straight in my head anymore.

witness – at 23:53
 That’s Just Ducky -Certainly not chikungunga. I believe I read that there had not been an outbreak in 34 years.

20 October 2006

Niah – at 00:33

I don’t have a link anymore, but I recently read an article that it is not unusual for India to see even 10,000 cases of Dengue in a year, with a CFR hovering around .5 −1%. What we’re seeing right now seems to have exploded quite suddenly, but then the rains have started too, as I understand it.

What seems a little odd to me is that in some areas the CFR that they are reporting is closer to 4–5%, but maybe the reporting is skewed by only the serious cases getting attention. Hard to say.

This Chikungunya is a whole ‘nother “animal”. I’ve tried to do some research on it, but have been at a loss to pinpoint any information that says this virus has infected anywhere near the amount of people that it has infected these last few months. It appears to be unprecedented. Thankfully, it also appears to be a virus that is not nearly as lethal as H5N1. …….Niah

Albert – at 00:36

Witness: “I wasn’t sure at first I was reading this number right.”13,26,000 CHIKUNGUNYA CASES ,THE COUNT IS STILL ON. “

I can explain that :) In the Indian subcontinent, they don’t count in millions but in lacs and crores. A lac is one hundred thousand and a crore is ten million. The figure you quoted, 13,26,000 stands for thirteen lac twenty six thousand. Or one million three hundred twenty six thousand. When I first arrived here, I saw figures like that in the newspapers and thought they put the comma in the wrong place.

witness – at 00:56

Thanks Albert, for clearing that up.I’ll sleep easier tonight.

Olymom – at 01:01

Witness, when you use all caps, it is the internet equivalent of shouting. (I find it easiest to read posts when folks are kind enough to use lots of paragraph breaks)

Despite the high numbers of cases, it doesn’t sound like a really high death rate (no gruesome stories about bodies stacking in the streets) — as to the poor sick lady shivering under her blankets on the sidewalk out side the hospital, I’m sorry to say that happens on a daily basis in the big Indian cities — thousands live “on the streets”

I liked Tom DVM’s comment about posters following the news like a hound after a rabbit — sometimes hounds are so ready to run they’ll follow the same scent around in circles long after the rabbit has left the county. I’m still nervous about the Nepal illnesses — but the dengue in India still sounds like dengue to me. (all these cases and no stories about dead chickens — very different than Indonesia). I guess I also have faith in Indian yellow journalism. If there was any chance that the dramatic “bird flu” was sweeping the country, I think the Indian papers would be trumpeting the news just to sell papers.

witness – at 02:12

Olymon- I am brand new to the computer and typing etc. Believe it or not I don’t even know how to make a paragraph break.I will try and post less often since I don’t seem to be doing it right.

Medical Maven – at 08:31

Niah at 00:33-Chkungunya evolved last year into a more virulent virus (confirmed by scientists). And this new evolved virus first did its damage in the Seychelles and now it has spread to India. Viral evolution-a shark that never sleeps.

cottontop – at 08:51

I think the use of caps should be gaged by the content of the post. I did not in anyway think witness was shouting, just drawing out attention to what they felt was important. I use caps to highlight a specific part of imformation. also, under normal posting, I do not use caps when upset by comments, but will use caps to convery humor. The wording around caps will tell you what is intended.

TreasureIslandGalat 09:05

Witness: just use the “enter” key to go to the next line. Use it twice in a row to create a paragraph break. ;)

Okiedokie – at 09:19

witness, keep posting OR I WILL HAVE TO START YELLING SO YOU WILL HEAR ME ;)

Niah – at 11:02

Medical Maven – at 08:31 Thank you for the info. Viral evolution…yuck. :-) niah

witness – at 02:12 Witness, please don’t stop posting, your work is much appreciated! :-) niah

witness – at 12:44

OK, Now I am going to shout!This is on the news site.”ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS WITH BIRD FLU SYMPTOMS(FROM INDIA!)IN GREECE.

Thankyou TreasureIslandGal,Okiedokie,Niah and cottontop.You are all so very kind.(Look at me make a new line)

diana – at 12:48

The problem with breakbone fever is that you literally won’t move, as the slightest motion feels like you are breaking your bones. The virus has gotten stronger with harsher effects. The two sisters I read about nearly starved, though they had food in their frig. They couldn’t bear to move.Chikungunga is called Breakbone fever. If you are alone, with noone to tend to you it could be very dire. No one would move a muscle voluntarily with this new more aggressive and virulent strain.With or without Avian flu we are in for a thinning out of the herd.)

Dr Dave – at 12:55

Witness,

Where did you see this news? By the way, welcome to Flu Wikie.

diana – at 13:02

Sorry. Dengue is called Breakbone fever. Chikungunya causes intense joint pain.

diana – at 13:03

Sorry. Dengue is called Breakbone fever. Chikungunya causes intense joint pain.

cottontop – at 13:07

Dr. Dave- it is posted in thread News for Oct.20, UK Bird posted a link.

cottontop – at 13:11

Dr.Dave UK Bird posted at 09:37

21 October 2006

cottontop – at 23:56

Had the news from India just dried up? I can’t find anything current, much less informative. Does anybody have new infor?

Also, must mention before I forget; Botulism found in carrot juice in Canada, and U.s. Not many people sickened. Sold in 1 liter and 450 ml bottles; Bolthouse Farms 100% carrot Juice, Earthbound farm Orgamic carrot juice, President’s choice Organic 100% carrot juice(canada).

22 October 2006

Oremus – at 00:10
 NEW DELHI: Dengue has affected nearly 7,000 people across the country while 1,665 people were afflicted with Chikungunya, the latest figures released by the government Saturday said.

While Dengue has affected 6,957 people and claimed 120 lives, no deaths due to Chikungunya have been reported . Though the government figure of dengue deaths stood at 120, reports from hospitals across the country put the toll at 135.

Nearly 7,000 Dengue cases across country

anon for this post 2 – at 00:26

Cottontop--- I think you should have started a new thread for your post as it is not relavant to India.(Now if botulism would have been found in carrot juice in India that of course would be different.)Just kidding of course. Thankyou for that info.

gharris – at 00:37

the carrot juice thing was actually over a week ago - but thanx for mentioning it anyway - nothing to worry about - they have all been removed from the shelves - just a ‘one off’ like the spinach ecoli in CA

cottontop – at 15:05

yea I know. It was late and I was heading out. In case people had those brands in stock and wasn’t aware of it.

Pixie – at 15:23

Diwali cracker fumes dousing dengue

22 Oct, 2006 2318hrs / http://tinyurl.com/skqmx

NEW DELHI: The nip in the air and the thick Diwali smoke — it’s been lower this year as per the pollution data, but good enough to spell the doom for Aedes — could signal the beginning of the end of the dengue outbreak.

A week, is what experts predict, should take the disease to die its natural death. The number of fresh cases has already reduced, with 56 reported in the past 24 hours compared to 80–90 per day range since the beginning of the month.

Meanwhile, one person died at the AIIMS on Sunday, taking the dengue death toll in the Capital to 46. The total number of dengue cases in the Capital has now crossed the 2,000-mark, touching 2,051.

In 2003, the last epidemic year, the total number of cases reported was 2,882. Of the fresh cases reported in the past 24 hours, 22 were those who had visited the fever screening OPD of AIIMS and diagnosed with the disease, and had to be admitted.

Thirty others have been discharged from the hospital, which now has 179 dengue patients admitted and 60 others under observation.

The numbers attending the special OPD too have also halved with just 1,000 patients reporting in the past two days compared to about 1,000 patients per day earlier.

According to AIIMS medical superintendent, Dr D K Sharma: “This, to my mind, is the fallout of the lowering of temperature that causes the dengue mosquito to cease breeding. In about a week or so, we should see the end of the outbreak.”

Agrees Dr Anoop Misra, consultant, internal medicine, Fortis Group of Hospitals: “The virus has an incubation period of 3–13 days. As it is the mosquito density had been going down because of the temperature change and now the cracker smoke, even though it was lower this year, would be the final death knell. Even if the smoke was not that dense, the damage to Aedes has been done.”

The dengue mosquito, according to health experts, stops breeding at 18 degrees Celsius. The minimum temperature in the city on Sunday was 20 degrees Celsius.

Meanwhile, Delhi and NCR have so far seen 28 cases of chikungunya. The total number for the country is 1,665 with no confirmed deaths from the disease so far.

Pixie – at 15:26

PAKISTAN: Fear of dengue fever spreads

22 Oct 2006 07:37:49 GMT / http://tinyurl.com/y2sn82

LAHORE, 20 October (IRIN) - Fear of the black and white striped mosquito responsible for spreading dengue fever has been keeping thousands of people indoors across the Pakistani provinces of Sindh and the Punjab.

Levels of concern have risen sharply, since the first cases of dengue virus - causing high fever, severe body aches and sometimes death if left untreated - were reported several weeks ago. There have been at least 20 deaths, almost all in the southern province of Sindh.

But the disease has now reached the Punjab. One woman suspected of having the disease in the town of Chakwal, about 80 km south of the federal capital Islamabad, died three days ago.

The deadly virus, carried by the Aedes mosquito, is not normally a hazard in Pakistan. Indeed little is known about the disease in the country, with some doctors in Lahore confessing they were forced to look up text books to confirm causes and symptoms, after first reports of the disease came in.

Dengue is more commonly found in South East Asia – but this year, it has rampaged across India with scores hospitalised. There have been at least 93 confirmed dengue deaths in India over the past six weeks.

Abdul Majeed, an official in the Sindh health department, told IRIN: “the situation is being closely monitored and we have set up special centers in hospitals.”

The warning signals from India and Sindh however do not appear to have been heeded by the government in the Punjab. Sources in the Punjab health department conceded they were taken “unaware” by the first reported cases, and struggled to devise a strategy.

“Dengue is often mistaken for flu, at least at first. Then the more severe symptoms, such as joint pain, eye pain, muscular aches and nausea usually strike,” Dr Asad Munir, a physician in Lahore, told IRIN

As the virus from infected mosquitoes expands its hold across Pakistan, Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz has called for “International experts to be consulted” to help cope with the situation. The Chief Minister of the Punjab province, Chaudhry Pervez Ellahi, is also reported to have sought daily situation reports on the dengue situation to be provided to him.

Pixie – at 15:31

Comment: I’m putting this here, as it is related to spread of dengue in the general area.

Two dengue cases identified in far-west Nepal

Xinhua / UPDATED: 13:16, October 22, 2006 / http://tinyurl.com/ydc6ez

Two cases of dengue disease that is transmitted through Aedes mosquitoes have been identified in Banke district, in far-west Nepal, local Nepal Samacharpatra daily reported Kathmandu on Sunday.

S.K. Mishra, professor at the Nepalgunj Medical College Teaching Hospital, some 700 km west of Kathmandu, was one of the victims, according to the newspaper report.

A team of specialists mobilized by the department of health identified the cases while carrying out health check-up of 16 people in the hospital.

The disease has no specific treatment but the patients need rest and a lot of fluids. The mosquito that carries the dengue viruses, produces eggs in clean water on contrary to other mosquitoes. Several people have died in India due to dengue.

Pixie – at 15:54

Comment: Nepalgunj - this is the same area as in my post at 15:31 above. They are talking about the same medical staff here. Note the tests for dengue were negative, and it says the teaching hospital could not diagnose the disease. This teaching hospital at Nepalgungi is 6 km from the border with India. The hospital is less than 10 years old, and looks state-of-the-art.

NEPAL

2006–10–21 22:25:04 / http://tinyurl.com/w6e93

Indian doctors find Ghimire dengue affected

BANKE, Oct 22 - The Gandhi Memorial & Associated Hospitals in Lucknow has found symptoms of dengue in Ghanshyam Ghimire, 28, of Bageshwori-5.

After conducting a study through Rapid Diagnostic Kit, Nepali specialists had earlier given a dengue-negative report on Ghimire.

The specialists’ team from the division of epidemiology and disease control led by Dr GD Thakur that arrived in Nepalgunjhad given the negative report. Ghimire was diagnosed by the team after Nepalgunj Teaching Hospital suspected that he was dengue infected. The division has stated that it found dengue only in four persons so far.

However, Ghimire’s relatives had rushed him to Lucknow as his condition worsened. “The teaching hospital here could not identify the disease,” said Manorat Pyakurel, his relative, adding, “He could be saved only after we rushed him to Lucknow.”

The doctors and nurses in the hospital were not keen on our taking him to the Indian hospital, according to the family members. After the findings, Dr Thakur stated that he would do another test on Ghimire.

The specialist team had arrived in the town as Nepalgunj Medical College informed the district public office that it feared some patients admitted in local hospitals were suffering from the disease.

A team to study about mosquitoes spreading dengue in the area was supposed to arrive here last week from the division has not reached here so far.


More info on Nepalgunj Medical College : http://tinyurl.com/ygshr7

witness – at 15:59

Thanks Pixie- You’re so right. Things just don’t add up.

Pixie – at 16:06

Comment: Ok, follow along. Here’s a report from earlier this month - October 12th - that tells of several civilians being treated at Nepalgunj Medical College for suspected dengue.

Six feared down with dengue in Nepal

Thursday, 12 October, 2006 / http://tinyurl.com/yfmavh

KATHMANDU: After an outbreak of dengue in India, Nepal which shares an open border with its southern neighbour is showing concern with six people reportedly showing symptoms of the mosquito-borne disease in mid-western Nepal.

Six patients admitted to two hospitals in Nepalgunj, the main town in Banke district, showed symptoms of the disease, media reports in Nepal said yesterday.

After examining the patients at Nepalgunj Medical College and Kohalpur Teaching Hospital, the doctors there advised them to go to India for medical tests, Kantipur, Nepal’s largest daily, reported.

“Three patients were admitted in our hospital and on the basis of clinical examinations, we suspect them to be suffering from dengue,” M Kidwai, director of Nepalgunj Medical College, told the daily.

“However, as we do not have the facilities for conducting the advance test that could confirm the preliminary diagnosis, we have asked them to go to India.”

The three patients have been sent to King George Medical College in India’s Lucknow city.

One of the three, Kaluram Chaudhuri, is a migrant Nepali worker from Bardiya district in far western Nepal who had returned home from Rajasthan in India about a week ago. The 25-year-old had come to the hospital for treatment after a bout of fever.

Of the three others who went to the Kohalpur Teaching Hospital, 55-year-old Vidya Mahajan, who was suffering from high fever and haemorrhage, has been sent to New Delhi for treatment.

However, the district government health authorities professed ignorance about the suspected dengue patients.

After an outbreak of the disease in several India cities, resulting in the death of at least 51 people, according to unofficial figures four towns across the border in Nepal remain tense. Besides Nepalgunj, they are Biratnagar, home of Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala, Chitwan, a popular tourist destination famed for its one-horned rhino and alligator population, and Birgunj, Nepal’s industrial hub. According to G D Thakur, chief of disease control at the Department of Health Services, the ades agepti, the mosquito that carries the virus, can easily come to Nepal via the open 1880km-border and even the daily Indo-Nepal flights.

The lack of diagnostic facilities in rural areas as well as small towns makes Nepal a vulnerable target for dengue. Hospitals on the Indo-Nepal border often prefer to ask patients to go to India for treatment.

Though some of the laboratories in the capital have the capability to conduct tests for dengue, it is often easier for Nepalis living along the border to cross over to Indian cities for treatment than travel all the way to Kathmandu.

After the disease assumed epidemic proportions in India, a private laboratory in the capital, Everest International Clinic, is offering free tests for dengue patients. There was no immediate official reaction to the reports yesterday.

Pixie – at 16:09

Comment: More on the above. Reports were that the 6 in Nepalgunj had tested negative for dengue.

One dies in Nepal

Kathmandu: Nepal reported its first dengue related death on Saturday. On the basis of a clinical test it was confirmed that a resident of the Tikulim area of Gaur died of dengue, the state-run National News Agency (RSS) reported.

The patient died while being taken to the District Health Centre, it said.

Nepal Government issued an alert in southern parts after the spurt in dengue cases in neighbouring India.

Authorities said that there was no dengue case in Nepalgunj in Banke district bordering India.

All suspected dengue patients in the Nepalgunj Medical College were diagnosed negative, they said.

Pixie – at 16:11

Sorry - the date of the post above for “One Dies in Nepal” was last Sunday, October 15th. http://tinyurl.com/yxudtn

Sorry to leave out that bit of critical information.

Pixie – at 16:30

Comment: Just wondered if there was a regular flow of people between India and Nepalgunj, Nepal. Apparently the answer is Yes lately.

Peace Brings Nepalis Flocking Home in Droves

Nepalgunj, Nepal / October 19 / http://tinyurl.com/y337g2

More than 60,000 Nepalis, who had been displaced to neighbouring India for security reasons during the conflict period, have returned to Nepal via Nepalgunj transit point after the restoration of democracy in the country.

Some 25,000 Nepalis returned from India via Nepalgunj transit in between mid-September and mid-October alone, police personnel at the Jamunaha police post on the Nepal-India border said. <snip>

On an average, some 1000 Nepalis are returning home via Nepalgunj transit point daily, Rana Said. <snip>

23 October 2006

Pixie – at 22:32

NEW DELHI, India

24 Oct, 2006 / http://tinyurl.com/y5bjj9

Dengue cases wane, no deaths reported

No dengue deaths were reported in the city on Monday, though fresh cases continued to come into hospitals. However, they were much less in numbers, thanks to the dipping mercury levels.

In the past 24 hours, city hospitals have reported 53 fresh dengue cases — a drastic reduction to the 80–90 per day figure since the beginning of the month. The total figure in the Capital now stands at 2,104, of which, 1,337 cases are from within the city. The highest number of cases, 244, has been reported from the central zone, followed by Shahdara (north) which has reported 166 cases and Shahdara (south) with 145 cases.

At the All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS), 398 people were screened at the fever screening OPD, of which 41 patients were admitted after being diagnosed with dengue, while 31 patients have been discharged. The institute’s microbiology laboratory has tested 821 blood samples for dengue since August 15 and a total of 479 cases have been detected. <snip>

Pixie – at 23:03

Comment: I am not sure what to make of the comments about chikungunya being marked by total organ failure and a higher mortality than dengue, if I am reading the doctor’s quote right.

Ludhiana, India

Oct. 23, 2006 / http://tinyurl.com/yga4wy

More haemorrgic dengue cases worry city doctors

The dengue mosquito continues to scare the city. Dengue patients with low platelet count and positive serology still continue to pour in at the hospitals in the city.

Doctors highlight that with the rise in the number of dengue patients, there is also an increase in patients suffering from internal bleeding of organs.

“Initially we had only about 10 per cent dengue patients who suffered from such problems. But in the last few days, almost 30 per cent patients are suffering from body organ bleeding,” says Dr. Akeshdeep Singh, consultant pulmonologist at Christian Medical College and Hospital (CMC&H).

Elaborating on the treatment and severity of haemorrgic dengue, Dr Anureet Gill of Satguru Partap Singh (SPS) Apollo Hospital says, “Usually only the serious dengue patients are admitted in the hospital. And if special care and proper treatment is given to them, the complications in the case may decrease’’.

About the complications that can be caused by dengue, Dr Raju Singh Chinna, Medical Superintendent of Dayanand Medical College and Hospital (DMC&H) highlights, “The mortality rate of this fever is usually low. The main concern of the doctors is to maintain the platelet count of the patients, unlike chickungunya where there is a complete failure of organs and the chances of death are very high’’.

Dr Anureet adds that there are four types of dengue fever, and proper care and check ups are necessary to monitor the patients’ condition.

witness – at 23:09

“Mystery virus rattles Ahmedabad”Sept.15,2006 The Times of India,on Tuesday reported an alarming rise in the number of patients becoming critical due to a mysterious chikungunya-like viral fever.This fever has sent alarm bells ringing in the medical fraternity as it rapidly leads to nervous system complications,MOSTLY FATAL,especially in the elderly. AFFLICTED WITH THIS PARTICULAR VIRUS, THE PATIENTS FIRST COMPLAINED OF CHIKUNGUNYA -LIKE SYMPTOMS NAMELY FEVER, MUSCLE AND JOINT PAIN BUT WITHIN DAYS,DEVELOPED RASHES, LOW PLATELETS,KIDNEY COMPLICATIONS AND FINALLY HAD TO BE PUT ON A “VENTILATOR” www.timesofindia.indiatimes.com

Pixie – at 23:13

388 fresh cases of dengue

Oct. 24, 2006 / http://tinyurl.com/ykacxl

Temperatures still conducive to mosquito breeding


One more death in Delhi Steady decline in cases


NEW DELHI: Only six States reported fresh dengue cases over the past 24 hours but the Government is cautious in its approach.

Briefing journalists here on Monday, National Vector Borne Disease Control Programme Director P.L. Joshi said while there was a decline, the temperatures had not fallen to the extent that would prevent mosquito breeding.

Of the 388 new cases reported in the past 24 hours, the maximum number was from Punjab (173), followed by Haryana (73), Rajasthan (71), Delhi (53), Chandigarh (15) and Andhra Pradesh (3). Two deaths — one in Delhi and the other in Rajasthan — were reported over the same period, taking the toll in the outbreak to 124.

Chikungunya incidence

As for chikungunya, the number of affected districts is down to 12 with 435 suspected cases reported during the last 24 hours.

Of the 18 samples sent to the National Institute of Virology, Pune, and the National Institute of Communicable Diseases in the capital, only one has tested positive. This confirmed case was reported from Delhi.

Kerala accounts for the largest number of suspected chikungunya cases with 321 reported from eight districtsAsked whether the fall in temperature was another reason for the decline in the dengue and chikungunya incidence, Dr. Joshi said the temperature stood at 20 degrees Celsius and this was still conducive to mosquito breeding.

West Bengal death toll 5

Kolkata Special Correspondent reports:

In West Bengal, the dengue death toll has risen to five. In all 675 persons were admitted to hospitals across the State, official sources said on Monday.

Fourteen fresh cases, including one in Kolkata city, were reported during the day.

witness – at 23:20

Pixie—His comments are a complete and total turn-around from past statements.Sounds like things are spiraling futher out of control with the patients showing those symptoms.

24 October 2006

Fiddlerdave – at 05:18

witness, if while typing it’s hard to do or keep track of upper/lower case for whatever reason, use all lower case. e.e cummings did, and it turned out ok! :) thanks for your research and comments.

Pixie – at 21:48

Witness - yes, I was not sure if the doctor’s comments were really what he said, which would be the opposite of what we have customarily heard, or if it was just a translation error.

Also, if you want to highlight a part of your text, the easiest way to do that is to bold the text. Just put 3 single quotation marks () just before and just after the portion you want to highlight. If there is punctuation at the end of a sentance you want to highlight, put the () 3 single quotation marks right before the punctuation.

Pixie – at 21:52

oh, nevermind! Anyway, you put 3 of these before and after the part you want to highlight and then it should work, as seen above.

‘’‘

Pixie – at 21:58

PAKISTAN

Eid travel brings dengue fever north 24 Oct 2006 17:28:27 GMT / http://tinyurl.com/ylwd7m

RAWALPINDI: An outbreak of the deadly dengue virus in southern Pakistan has now spread to the north, partly because more people have been travelling across the country for Eid, medical officials say.

The four-day national Eid ul-Fitr holiday, which marks the end of Ramadan, started on Tuesday and has seen thousands boarding trains, buses or coaches to visit family or return home.

Microbiologist Dr Abbas Hayat, head of the pathology department at Rawalpindi Medical College, close to the capital, Islamabad, expressed apprehension that “as more and more people arrive from areas in Sindh where the disease is endemic, there is a danger the epidemic will spread”.

Mosquitoes spreading the disease have ended up in buses or trains heading north; or those already infected with the virus in the south have been bitten by local mosquitoes at their destination, causing the disease to spread further.

Most often, the viral infection manifests itself as high fever, body aches and joint pains and most victims recover within a fortnight. However, in some cases, the disease takes the form of dengue haemorrahagic fever, which can cause uncontrollable bleeding, leading to death if not treated swiftly.

There have been cases in Peshawar, the capital of the North West Frontier Province (NWFP), in the Islamabad and the city of Rawalpindi that lies adjacent to it.

Hundreds of patients are in hospital in the Islamabad and Rawalpindi areas and on Monday Rawalpindi saw its first confirmed death from the disease.

Mehreen Bano, 14, a patient brought to the Cantonment General Hospital (CGH) in Rawalpindi from the nearby village of Pindigheb, died within an hour of being admitted. The girl was reported to have been suffering high fever and nose bleeds for several days.

“Mehreen was brought to the hospital on Monday morning, but her condition was severe and she died within half an hour,” Dr Shafiqur Rehman, the medical officer at the CGH, told IRIN. Out of 77 blood samples sent for testing from the Rawalpindi area to the National Institute of Health (NIH) in Islamabad, 14 have tested positive for the dengue virus. It is believed dozens more, currently either in hospital or discharged after initial treatment, could be suffering from the disease.

However, a severe shortage of testing kits at hospitals has made it difficult to determine the numbers infected. Hospitals across the country are currently demanding testing kits, with more and more suspected patients coming in daily.

The long Eid break has added to the problems in acquiring new kits and pharmaceutical companies involved in importing the kits say it could be two weeks or longer before more can be brought in. “It is a case of market dynamics. The demand is unusual and we were not ready for it, Peshawar-based pharmacist Fazal Afzal said.

Health experts across the country have warned that the dengue epidemic could assume still more serious proportions over the coming days, due to a continuing lack of sufficient public awareness and a failure to take measures to prevent breeding of the Aedes mosquito, which carries the virus.

The onset of colder weather, which would kill of the mosquitoes, is seen as the main hope in stopping the rapid spread of the disease.

There have so far been 432 confirmed cases of dengue in the southern port city of Karachi, the capital of the Sindh province. At least 12 people have died since the outbreak hit in mid-September, the World Health Organization (WHO) has said. While more than 160 patients are still hospitalised in Karachi, the epicentre of the mosquito-transmitted epidemic. At least another 1,500 people in the province are thought to be infected.

All hospitals in Peshawar, Rawalpindi and Islamabad have been placed on high alert, and isolation wards have been set up at them for patients showing symptoms of dengue.

Hurricane Alley RN – at 22:20

Question: Why all the need for isolation wards if dengue fever doesn’t spread h2h? gina

witness – at 22:26

Gina— you must be mistaken,there is nothing to see here. Please move along.

cottontop – at 22:27

That was my thought as well. They keep talking about this dengue as if it is a conmuniable diease.

anything but bf – at 22:33

Shhh! ‘you know who’ might hear you talking about dengue again. Better go over to the other thread ;-)

25 October 2006

Anonymous – at 00:35

Hurricane Alley : beds of dengue patients are often screened with mosquito nets because the dengue patients can act as vectors to infect mosquitoes who can then infect other people. Dengue is under no circumstances transmissible from human to human.

Dengue is endemic in all of South Asia and South-East Asia and now is the season during which, in some years, it reaches epidemic proportions. I suppose the reason the dengue cases are scrutinised here is that it might mask an outbreak of BF H2H, but there is no sign of this at present.

Pixie – at 07:39

Wednesday, October 25, 2006

431 confirmed cases of dengue virus in Karachi

Wednesday, October 25, 2006 / http://tinyurl.com/ydfkzt

ISLAMABAD: A total of 431 cases of dengue fever of the 1,392 reported cases in Karachi hospitals have been confirmed positive so far, said Syed Anwar Mahmood, federal health secretary, on Tuesday.

Twenty-five people have died of the virus in Karachi, Mr Mahmood told a press conference here on Tuesday. There have been no reported deaths from the disease in Islamabad and Rawalpindi, but 16 cases have been confirmed in Rawalpindi and 15 in Islamabad. A total of 77 cases have been reported in the twin cities.

Mr Mahmood said there were confirmed dengue cases in four other cities also: one in Peshawar, three each in Chakwal and Khushab and four in Kotli. The health secretary said all major hospitals in Karachi and the twin cities had enough diagnostic kits and treatment facilities and they would be ready to receive patients on Eid day.

He said the holidays of staff at all hospitals and the federal health department had been cancelled. The World Health Organisation has offered Pakistan technical assistance to with the dengue outbreak, Mahmood said.

Online adds: Dengue has reached Jacobabad as a patient with symptoms of high fever and headache tested positive for the disease. Hafizur Rehman was admitted to a local hospital with high fever and headache and was shifted to a Karachi hospital when his condition deteriorated.

Okidokie – at 09:00

testing 123 (((highlight))) testing 456

Okidokie – at 09:01

testing “”“hightlight”“” testing 456

Okidokie – at 09:02

testing highlight testing 456 (sorry folks)

cottontop – at 09:18

okidokie- are we having some “down time?”

Tink – at 10:39

Could someone post, by country, the number of dengue infections and deaths, similar to the summary of bird flu counts posted under the daily thread? It might come in handy if this is really bird flu and not dengue.

Jane – at 11:08

And maybe a category for “unusually severe” cases, ie with organ failure and/or hemorrhage.

Tally Prepper – at 11:19

http://www.newindpress.com/NewsItems.asp?ID=IEQ20061025011614&Page=Q&Title=ORISSA&Topic=0 First dengue case to be reconfirmed Wednesday October 25 2006 11:37 IST ANGUL: The State Government is likely to go for further test of the blood sample of CISF jawan Suresh Kumar who has been detected dengue positive by Lal Pathology, a Delhi-based laboratory. The pathological test of his blood sample had indicated presence of weak dengue virus which is normally found in other viral diseases, said Chief Medical Officer of NTPC-Kaniha P R Biswas. He said the CISF constable, now stable at Kalinga Hospital in Bhubaneswar, showed other symptoms besides severe fever and body ache. He also clarified that no other case has been reported in NTPC-Kaniha areas since Kumar’s infection. A second examination by any government laboratory has been recommended by Chief District Medical Officer Khageswar Behera and the same has been apprised to the Health Department, Biswas said. Confirmation by a government laboratory is required, he added. Meanwhile, a five-member team from SCB Medical, Cuttack arrived at Kaniha to study the case. Besides discussions with doctors, the team would also look out for ‘aedes’ mosquitoes in that area.

Pixie – at 11:35

TallyPrepper - at 11:19:

This man in Kalinga hospital is the first case of dengue found in the state of Orissa. I am not sure what they mean by “he showed other symptoms besides severe fever and body ache” or why they are retesting him, since the first reports were that he was positive for dengue. http://tinyurl.com/yzf3wr

Tink & Jane:

I think it is not so much the tested and confirmed dengue cases that we should watch, but those that are “suspected” dengue but are not included in the “confirmed” counts.

Okidokie – at 12:15

cottontop – at 09:18 okidokie- are we having some “down time?” only 3 minutes worth LOL

cottontop – at 12:22

okidokie- thought I was on the humor thread at first! anyway, I got a chuckle.

Sniffles – at 12:44

Pixie – at 11:35 I guess what bothered me about the article was that they were sending out 5 medical people immediately to the site even though it is only one unconfirmed case. Why would they do this? The case already tested positive for dengue once. It makes no sense, unless the additional symptoms that were not provided in the article made them concerned enough to go right away to the site. This article has peaked my interest.

Pixie – at 14:32

Sniffles - at 12:44

Yup, mine too. Somebody already pointed out that medical staff in this area of the world should know what dengue looks like, and the blood test was done in New Delhi. I wondered about that medical team of 5 being sent to hospital too. It sounds a lot like the special medical team that was sent last week to investigate the dengue at Nepalgunj hospital in Nepal. That article posted by Tally Prepper at 11:19 also said that:

The pathological test of his blood sample had indicated presence of weak dengue virus which is normally found in other viral diseases..

I really don’t know what to make of that either.

Sniffles – at 15:15

Pixie – at 14:32 “The pathological test of his blood sample had indicated presence of weak dengue virus which is normally found in other viral diseases..”

I really don’t know what to make of that either.

I wondered about that comment as well. I have not heard them state anything like that regarding any of the other dengue cases. If this is the same/similar medical team that was sent to investigate the cases in Nepal, I have a feeling we hear just as much about the case and potentially any other cases that may be in the area as we did in Nepal: nothing. As soon as the medical team arrived onsite in Nepal, the information vanished. I wonder if this same phenomenon will occur with this case too.

26 October 2006

witness – at 02:21

“Shiv Sena accuses govt of suppressing dengue figure-New Delhi- Oct 12 Roughly 20,000 people are affected by dengue in Delhi’s private and government hospitals. ----( That’s just in New Delhi.That’s a whole lot of underreporting going on.)www.webindia123.com

witness – at 02:35

“Test cricketer Shadab Kabir infected by dengue virus” ----When I first saw this headline, I made a mental note to be aware of any other cricket players getting dengue. I found this today. They don’t exactly play on the same team, but maybe have crossed paths and I find it strange that India is playing it down----“ India play down rumours of Greg King’s Illness”Greg King ,the indian trainer, has been admitted to a hospital in Ahmedabad with a viral fever.The news spread late on Wed. evening and created a buzz among the media,as several stories did the rounds claiming that King was suffering from chikungunya.(Greg King is an indian cricket trainer.)

AnnieBat 02:44

With reference the blood test indicating weak presence of the virus - can they tell if there are virus or antibodies - do these show differently? As Dengue is quite common, this person may be carrying antibodies from a previous attack? Sorry, I do not know much about pathology

witness – at 02:56

This article is a bit shocking. I hope the superior minds of this site can put it under a microscope.----“Chickengunya,dengue cases in 595 Marathwada villages” April 10,2006---About 52,000 people from the region have been affected by the outbreak of fever. Around 1057 blood samples were sent to the National Institute of Virology of which 137 had tested positive for chickengunya and 69 for dengue.-----Ok, here are my questions. I thought they were in the dangerous time now for dengue. What’s up with 52,000 people sick in April of this year? Could that have been what was experienced in 1918 with a mild outbreak in the spring and then the real deal in the fall?What do you all make of this? www.webindia123.com It really can’t be explained away because most of these people tested negative for dengue.

Flumonitor – at 07:02

If it were a flu that was transmissible enough to cause these numbers of cases we should have seen it spread far and wide. As far as I am aware, we haven’t - although there was a bad flu B going round late last year.

Pixie – at 07:10

Well, the international press may yet get interested in the story of mystery illness in India. Just saw a TV report that Angelina Jolie has just passed out on the set of her new movie in India. This is apparently the third time she has become ill in a month. Stay tuned for news at 11. :)

Pixie – at 07:20

Comment: We should start seeing a shop drop in dengue suspects now in New Delhi due to the changing weather.

Drop in dengue cases means fewer frantic calls at AIIMS

Thursday, October 26, 2006 / http://tinyurl.com/yn6xmc

Dengue cases have dropped mercifully in the past week and so have the frantic calls that doctors at the All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) were attending to on the hospital’s special helpline.

‘People have become more relaxed and calmed down in the past week since the day temperatures have started to dip,’ said a health official in the hospital.

‘Earlier, we were receiving around 150 panic calls on an average everyday, but in the past week the number has declined to nearly 40, which is around 65 percent lower,’ said Bir Singh, a senior AIIMS faculty member heading the helpline section.

He said the hospital had begun a study on the number of dengue patients and the calls received this year. ‘We have received over 6,000 calls from the second week of September onwards,’ said Singh.

‘We started getting fewer calls from last week when the skies suddenly became overcast and there was a little rain, making it much cooler,’ said Singh. The wintry chill is not conducive for the breeding of the dengue-virus carrying aedes aegypti mosquito.

According to Singh, during the beginning of the dengue outbreak in early September, the helpline functioned for around seven hours a day. But seeing the frequency of calls and the number of patients coming in, the helpline hours were increased to 12 a day. ‘The helpline was working from 10 a.m. to 5 p.m. earlier, but considering the frequency of calls we extended the help line from 10 a.m. to 8 p.m. We started another help line on the mobile phone between 10 a.m. to 10 p.m.,’ he said.

Even after increasing the help line duration and the doctors attending to dengue patients, the number of panic calls kept on rising. The rise in the number of calls was due to more dengue cases being reported and the fear that had gripped peoples’ minds, said a senior doctor.

‘Most of the calls received at the helpline centre were absolutely frivolous and due to the fear psychosis gripping the people,’ said D.K. Sharma, AIIMS medical superintendent. He said people would inquire about blood platelet counts even when they were having a body ache. He said that some of the common queries were - ‘I have slight fever, am I suffering from dengue?’ and ‘I have body ache should I check my blood platelets?’ ‘These are the kinds of call we used to get everyday,’ said Sharma, adding that these calls were understandable because people were frightened and under constant terror of being affected by dengue.

With the dengue fever now on the wane, the hospital has also decided to withdraw some of its special services. The help line has been brought back to the earlier 10 a.m. to 5 p.m. ‘Now people call up with more inquisitive questions - on the causes of dengue and the ways to protect themselves. They seem to be calmer and composed,’ said Sharma.

‘The other reason to calm down people was Diwali. Many feel the breeding of mosquitoes will stop due to the smoke from the bursting of firecrackers. We do not have any scientific explanation behind such a thought.’

The dengue virus has claimed nearly 47 lives in the national capital since early September. The death toll from dengue across the country stood at 129 and total number of patients in the country stood at 7,749 till Wednesday.

The dengue virus is spread through the bite of the female aedes aegypti mosquito that breeds in stagnant water. The symptoms of the disease are high fever, skin rashes and pain in the joints. A sharp drop in the patient’s blood platelet count can prove fatal.

SarahSat 08:44

Child deaths soar as mosquito-borne viruses plague India…

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20061026/hl_afp/indiahealth_061026093557

Oremus – at 12:34

witness – at 02:21

I hope this isn’t the Shiva from my pandemic dream.

Pixie – at 21:16

The dengue situation is about as we last left it in India and Pakistan. However, can anyone suggest why the dengue patients are wearing surgical masks in this picture of patients in bed in hospital in Pakistan (it may be something they do routinely, I just am not familiar with it)? http://tinyurl.com/y4f87t

Otherwise, cases of suspected dengue are down in India, up slightly in Pakistan.

cottontop – at 21:28

Pixie- I wonder if the mosquito infects India and Pakistan at the same time?

johnO – at 22:02

cottontop-21:28

The species of mosquito Aedes Egypti which is recognized as the main dengue vector (transmitter) lives in both countries. In fact it is actually widespread throughout the world in tropical and subtropical regions (has even been spreading throughout the southeastern U.S. and even recently into urban areas of southern Arizona). I recently heard it suggested that Aedes Albopictus might be a potential vector, but I haven’t heard anything definite. That is more an old world mosquito (especially Asia), but is known now as a recently introduced species in the warmer areas of the eastern U.S.

What I see as interesting is that dengue right now is so widespread. I know every year there are outbreaks at this time of year but I don’t remember it being a problem in so many places at once. But the best I can tell, all this dengue and chik. going on makes seeing what’s going on with BF more difficult. I hope it’s not ‘in the mix.’

johnO – at 22:24

cottontop - 21:28

Looks like wiki timed out as I submitted before. Lemme try again.

The species generally recognized as the main transmitter for dengue, aedes egypti is widespread throughout the tropics/subtropics old world and new including both India and Paki. It’s even recently been spreading throughout the southeast U.S. and creeping north of the border into urban areas of Arizona recently. Dengue is even conceivably a threat in the U.S. now that they’re here but it hasn’t happened yet.

I don’t think I’ve ever heard of a particular outbreak over so large a region all at once like this before though. I know I heard one report that a number of (or all) the Delhi cases were in people who’d travelled up from southern India. Then perhaps mosquitos there are biting those infected and the transmission cycle could sustain itself up there. But were there dengue cases in Nepal, Tibet? I remember hearing about some sort of illness up there (it’s getting hard to keep track). I don’t think Ae. Egypti live there though there may be other species that could possibly transmit it, just maybe not as well (like aedes albopictus - Asian Tiger Mosquito). I had heard recently that it does have the ability to transmit, but it was brand new news to me so not sure if that’s correct. Incidentally, that mosquito can live in slightly cooler regions than Ae. Egypti and though is an old world mosquito, has been recognized as a spreading introduced species in warmer parts of the eastern U.S.

johnO – at 22:24

cottontop - 21:28

Looks like wiki timed out as I submitted before. Lemme try again.

The species generally recognized as the main transmitter for dengue, aedes egypti is widespread throughout the tropics/subtropics old world and new including both India and Paki. It’s even recently been spreading throughout the southeast U.S. and creeping north of the border into urban areas of Arizona recently. Dengue is even conceivably a threat in the U.S. now that they’re here but it hasn’t happened yet.

I don’t think I’ve ever heard of a particular outbreak over so large a region all at once like this before though. I know I heard one report that a number of (or all) the Delhi cases were in people who’d travelled up from southern India. Then perhaps mosquitos there are biting those infected and the transmission cycle could sustain itself up there. But were there dengue cases in Nepal, Tibet? I remember hearing about some sort of illness up there (it’s getting hard to keep track). I don’t think Ae. Egypti live there though there may be other species that could possibly transmit it, just maybe not as well (like aedes albopictus - Asian Tiger Mosquito). I had heard recently that Ae. Alb. does have the ability to transmit, but it was brand new news to me so not sure if that’s correct. Incidentally, that mosquito can live in slightly cooler regions than Ae. Egypti and though is an old world mosquito, has been recognized as a spreading introduced species in warmer parts of the eastern U.S.

Pixie – at 22:28

Here’s the puzzling thing about the pattern we are seeing of new dengue cases. While it is still quite warm in New Delhi, India, and in Karachi, Pakistan (both of which have seen new dengue cases this week), it has recently been getting much cooler in Islamabad/Rawalpindi, Pakistan, and Nepalgunj, Nepal.

We are told that the Aedes mosquito does not reproduce at temperatures of below 19 or 18 degrees celcius. Reports that we have heard from New Delhi, India, have repeatedly suggested that they believe that their dengue epidemic will soon end because nightime temperatures will soon be dipping below 19 degrees celsius (65 degrees Farenheit) thus significantly lessening their problem with the mosquito vector.

Nightime lows, then, in both Islamabad/Rawalpindi and in Nepalgunj should now be low enough to be ending their problems with dengue. (13 degrees C = 55 degrees F).

From the BBC Weather Centre:

From Wunderground:

enza – at 23:12

Pixie at 21:16---

mmmmm, maybe the dengue virus has mutated to become airborne?

Sorry, I couldn’t resist.

27 October 2006

witness – at 00:36

Pixie—Thanks for your comments and reports.Through a very studied approach you understand that this just doesn’t make sense.I can tell you are not quick to jump to conclusions. You are carefully looking at the facts. I really appreciate your time and posts.The “dengue defense” has so far worked for India, so why shouln’t Pakistan and others use it too? Whatever these mystery diseases are,we will find out soon enough.

Goju – at 01:12

Pixie - the masks are used to keep the mosquitoes from flying out of thier mouths silly!

witness – at 01:12

Sadly, a report like this from anywhere would have caused us all to be on high alert.Now this just seems kinda normal.(For India anyway}

“MP Govt. fails to act on disease outbreak”-- Sun. Oct.15 2006-At least 100 people have died in the Chambal belt of Madhya Pradesh from a disease which the government has failed to identify.

“A young boy Rajju was taken to the district hospital in Shivpuri after two weeks of very high fever. He now bleeds from the nose and mouth.”

The hospital in Shivpuri is flooded with patients reporting high fever and severe joint pains. All wards are full with viral fever patients.www.ndtv.com

Anon_451 – at 17:29

Bump as important

johnO – at 17:56

Pixie,

Perhaps we should give it some time for the little buggers to wind down as things cool off, and the people who may have contracted Dengue in the past couple weeks to trickle (or flood) into the news.

Sniffles – at 18:08

When the temperature drops, I wonder what other disease will be sited instead of dengue as the cause of their symptoms? I realize that dengue has been around for many years and that people in these parts of the world do get this disease each year, but some of these symptoms and how they are being treated in the hospitals (masks over their faces) do not make sense to me either.

Pixie – at 18:25

johnO - at 17:56

I totally agree. People have been moving around a lot due to the holiday, too, so it can be difficult to tell where someone may have been infected.

Witness - at 1:12

I really don’t like that story. I don’t understand why a disease like that remains unidentified (and whenever I hear of symptoms like this boy’s, it reminds me too much of the symptoms of the kids in Turkey).

I am certain that most of what is reported as dengue or chik is dengue or chik. There is a lot of disease and a lot of people in this part of the world. I do think that the reports of unusual and undiagnosed illnesses with flu-like symptoms do bear simple watching, though.

enza – at 18:25

Cold weather dengue.

Ok, ok, I’ll go back to my corner now.

28 October 2006

witness – at 19:13

“Deadly virus spreading in Pakistan” (((The deadly virus carried by the Aedes mosquito, is not normally a hazard in Pakistan))).

(((Indeed little is known about the disease in the country, with some doctors in Lahore confessing they were forced to look up text books to confirm causes and symptoms, after first reports of the disease came in))).

(((Dengue is more commonly found in South East Asia-but this year,it has rampaged across India with scores hospitalised))).

I know that there have been questions about whether or not this was all normal.Well, evidently it’s not.

witness – at 19:18

Ok, what did I do wrong? I was trying to put the areas with the 3 quotation marks in bold.(Please don’t laugh too hard).If you would like to read the whole article just google the title.

Influentia2 – at 19:53

Witness 19:18 use this ‘ that is the one on the same key as “ next to the big ENTER key. Do that Three times around what you want to highlight. Delete any other punctuation in between the three such as “ when someone is being quoted in an article or it will still mess up your highlighting. I am not an expert highlighter myself and have messed it up alot/, hope this helps.

witness – at 22:08

Thanks Influentia2-I give it a try.

“Ignorance weakens fight against Dengue fever”--Karachi

“ Other misconceptions which have been propagated during the spread of the virus include claims that paramedics were contracting the disease while treating patients.

“He added that at many hospitals,patients are being kept in isolation wards with the staff treating them wearing masks and gloves which is also not necessary.

It sounds to me like the people on the front lines might believe this might be contagious. One thing I am also starting to see as I scan news items are the many familial cases.www.thenews.com

witness – at 22:10

Yay!!

Pixie – at 22:17

Excellent witness!

witness – at 22:18

From same article,but quite important.

The mortality rate of DHF is hardly 2 percent while our data shows an alarmingly high 5–10 percent only because of improper disease management,Dr Khanahi warned.(whatever that means)

Pixie – at 22:20

Comment: Still more dengue cases in Islamabad/Rawalpindi (which are two sister cities like Minneapolis/St. Paul) even though the weather is cooling there.

Dengue cases go up in Pakistan

Submitted by kashif on Sat, 2006–10–28 22:08. Muslim World News / http://tinyurl.com/w9tn3

Islamabad, Oct 28 (Xinhua) The number of dengue fever afected patients rose Saturday to 1,772 in Pakistan, according to a report from the website of local newspaper The News.

In the last 24 hours, 19 new patients were admitted to the hospitals with signs and symptoms of dengue fever from Islamabad and Rawalpindi.

According to statistics of Pakistani National Institute of Health, blood samples of 89 suspected dengue fever patients have been received, out of which 39 cases have been diagnosed positive.

In Islamabad, 21 out of 61 suspected dengue fever cases were found positive.

Pixie – at 22:29

Comment: They are making special arrangements for dengue patients in hospitals, and are setting up isolation wards for them. Two brothers have both been struck with dengue hemorrhagic fever - can can someone familiar with dengue comment on the odds of that happening.

Number of Dengue Fever patients rises to 1800 in Pakistan

By Sarah Kamal ‘Pakistan Times’ Special Correspondent / Oct. 28, 2006 / http://tinyurl.com/y9bqf2

<snip>

Two Die in Punjab

A report from Lahore says that the management of Sheikh Zaid hospital has been tight-lipped on deaths of two dengue fever patients in the hospital whereas four more patients infected by dengue virus have been detected.

Two patients of dengue fever, Moinuddin of Syed Mitha Bazar area and Abdul Qadeer were died in the hospital, while four more patients being kept in a special ward of the hospital.

Meanwhile, a meeting of Sheikh Zaid hospital management was held with administrator Dr. Saboor Malik in chair, to review the special arrangements made for the dengue patients in the hospital.

Tests in SW Pakistan

To prevent against dengue fever, NWFP government directed Saturday to set up isolation wards in all district headquarter hospitals and make arrangements conduct the tests of disease.

In a meeting presided over by NWFP Additional Chief Secretary Ghulam Dastagir, it was told that like other parts of the country, dengue fever can possibly run rampant in the province.

Thus far, only two persons are diagnosed positive for dengue fever and both ran the disease while they were in Sindh. One child from among them has died.

Additional Chief Secretary directed the issuance of one million rupee to each district headquarter hospital. He directed to conduct the anti-mosquito spray over ponds and streams.

The meeting decided to wage a mass awareness campaign to prevent against dengue fever.

Takes Life of Child

According to another report, following Karachi, Sindh interior, Islamabad and Rawalpindi, dengue fever seemed to have entered the NWFP province also, as the World Health Organization (WHO) has confirmed the death of a child, 7 with all the symptoms of suffering from the dengue fever.

According to media reports, WHO Medical Officer, Dr. Mohammad Saeed Akbar Khan in operation in NWFP and Fata told that the National Institute of Health, Islamabad had diagnosed Mohammad Jamil, 7 resident of the village Meera of Kabal Tehsil in Swat suffered from Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF).

Jamil, who died on Thursday, was admitted into the Khayber Teaching Hospital on October 15 after struck by high fever, he said.

Dr. Mohammad Saeed told that one DHF patient was brought to Khayber Tehsil Hospital, while the other one Mukhtiyar Ahmad to the District Headquarter Hospital, Swabi.

He told that Mukhtiyar was brought from the Landhi area of Karachi, where his brothers also suffering from DHF were under treatment. He told that the blood samples of the patients have been sent to Islamabad for test.

On the other hand, the ministry of health told that 1576 cases of dengue fever were detected thus far since October 2 in Sindh, while in Islamabad 21 and Rawalpindi 39 persons were diagnosed dengue positive.

The ministry said that the dengue in Sindh has taken the toll of 27 lives and 78 dengue patients have been admitted into the different hospitals in Karachi during the last 24 hours, while in the same period 92 patients were discharged from the hospitals in Karachi and Sindh after the recovery from dengue fever.

johnO – at 22:32

Witness - 22:08

I am very interested to see the familial cases from the link you have. But when I open the link, it opens up a nested menu system. Can you tell me the correct path through the links to see the article you mention? That’s too juicy a tidbit to not read.

Thanks!

witness – at 22:43

John0 —I am starting to see the familial links as I read the different articles. Pixie has one in her article above at 22:29. I will start posting them as I see them.But because of my limited computer skills you’ll have to google the title of the articles.

witness – at 22:46

Pixie, Here’s my comment----yeah,right

Pixie – at 22:56

JohnO - here’s the link for witness’ story at 22:08 from “The News International.”

http://tinyurl.com/yn4qbv

enza – at 23:00

Thanks you witness, pixie and others for your hard work on this thread. Lets stay on this like frosting on cake until we are satisfied all these cases really are dengue.

29 October 2006

Goju – at 00:53

If these were confirmed H5N1 cases what would you all be saying now?

Pixie – at 00:59

4

Goju – at 01:15

only 4?

Pixie – at 01:33

In knew you’d say that!

5 needs bigger clusters.

technically.

I’d also say “hello Walton’s? yes, please send me 600 lbs of wheat.”

and I’d be telling my schools to get ready to close.

Blue Ridge Mountain Mom – at 01:15

Courtesy of the CDC. While researching Central America, I stumbled across the figure that 50 million people contract dengue every year.


In 2005, dengue is the most important mosquito-borne viral disease affecting humans; its global distribution is comparable to that of malaria, and an estimated 2.5 billion people live in areas at risk for epidemic transmission (Figure 4). Each year, tens of millions of cases of DF occur and, depending on the year, up to hundreds of thousands of cases of DHF. The case-fatality rate of DHF in most countries is about 5%, but this can be reduced to less than 1% with proper treatment. Most fatal cases are among children and young adults.

http://tinyurl.com/de6nc

Goju – at 19:33

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/msid-223059,curpg-1.cms

Tamiflu helped avert outbreak of bird flu

NEW DELHI: The deadly H5N1 bird flu virus that hit India in February 2006 was sensitive to Tamiflu, the drug which many governments including India used to ward off a deadly bird flu pandemic.

Genetic and DNA sequencing of the virus collected from Jalgaon and Navapur by scientists from Bhopal’s High Security Animal Disease Laboratory, has revealed that the virus contained several types of amino acids - glutamic acid, asparigine, histidine and arvinone - that made it sensitive to Tamiflu.

This, scientists say, helped India avert a possible transmission of the deadly H5N1 virus from birds to humans.

Scientists B Patnaik and C Tosh, who have completed sequencing the genes HA1 and HA2 of the virus and studying the 10 proteins, specially HA and NA present in the virus, told TOI that “timely administering of Tamiflu to those who were quarantined on suspicions of having been in contact with H5N1 virus infected birds, helped us avert the transmission of the virus to humans.

DNA analysis of the virus has shown it to be highly sensitive to Tamiflu”. According to lab chief H K Pradhan, some countries including Vietnam have reported that the virus circulating there is resistant to Tamiflu making its containment even more difficult.

“Our DNA tests, conducted of the HA, NA, NS1 and PV2 proteins, showed the virus that hit India was capable of infecting mammals, including humans. Therefore, a Tamiflu resistant virus would have resulted in people being infected by the bird flu virus easily, ultimately resulting in their mortality.”

The scientists have made another interesting discovery. They say the virus that hit India, specially the one that was isolated from the outbreak in Navapur, had mutated and undergone a re-assortment in Turkey.

This means that the virus, which had originated in Qinghai (central China), was carried to Turkey by migratory birds. Here, the virus mutated and mixed with the Vietnamese strain. The mixed strain was then brought to India by migratory birds. This phenomenon of being hit by a re-assorted virus has not been reported from any other country over the past four years.

“The influenza virus mutates quickly. So did the H5N1 virus that came to India. Turkey is one of the few countries where both the Chinese and Vietnamese strain have been found.

“The virus that was found in Navapur was a mixed strain. That’s why we believe the mixing happened in Turkey. While the NA was the Vietnamese type, the HA was Chinese,” Pradhan added.

AnnieBat 22:37

This thread has got very long so I have started a new thread here

I have taken the last few postings across.

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Page last modified on October 29, 2006, at 10:37 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Confusion

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Confusion

25 October 2006

Blue – at 20:45
 Hypothetically:

 If someone walks into a room(e.g. office) breathing Highly Pathogenic Bird Flu, spends the working day in there, and then goes home and decides that he is too sick to go to work from then on…For how long will the office be unsafe for others to walk into?
Blue – at 20:50
 These are the types of questions that we all need some form of education in, so as to realise the risks involved in doing what we plan to do if/when TSHTF. We can say, keep your social distance, but we need to nail down some real science on the matter before anybody treats anything seriously.

 SIP is the only way for me, but people will work and it should be known as to what the risks are and how to limit them.  
LauraBat 21:22

BLue - I don’t know if all the answers are there yet. I don’t think there has been much work done on this are in terms of AF - the countires where human cases are occuring don’t have the resources. And even on this forum, I’ve read all different kinds of figures on how long ordinary viruses last on different surfaces (hard vs soft) anthing from a few hours on hard surfaces to 24 to 36+ hours, and soft even longer. But that’s “regular” stuff. Then add the droplets from a sick person coughing or sneezing. There is also contradictory figures on how long and infected person sheds the virus before coming ill - anywhere from 1–17 days! So your fictious person could have infected everyone in the office two days before becoming ill and decided to stay home.

This is why once it starts, it’s steam rolling down the track and nothing is going to stop it.

Blue – at 23:04
 Yeh…I don’t understand why absentee rate would only be 30–50%

 No-we don’t know much. I want to know how the people that do die, do die. The only answer is by being foolhardy and not listening to warnings-except of course the people who are just unlucky when at first there was no warning.

 The only option for me is to completely SIP until further notice when TSHTF, Period.

 In the face of the unknown,what else can you do.

 Even with a mask it has been said that it would be foohardy to walk out into the middle of known hazardous conditions if it can at all be avoided!! 
DennisCat 23:08

Blue – at 23:04 why absentee rate would only be 30–50%

most of those studies that select about 40% absentee rates also only select about 2% at the most for their fatality rate and some where around 20 to 40% infection rates.

I hope that it is that low but I fear (unrealistic ??)that the numbers may be much higher than the 1918 models.

Blue – at 23:33
 OK They predict that most people will take the chance that it will not happen(death) to them given the 2% even if you catch it.

 The more that catch it the more it spreads so…. WATCH OUT, EH!

 It develops a Low Fatality rate to infect more people and it works. 

 People love to work.

 It’s a real pickle. I want to SIP but I’m not sure for how long I can do this. Money has to be saved now to pay rent and bills during the extent you SIP for aswell-otherwise you will have to break it.

26 October 2006

Leo7 – at 02:16

Blue:

You think you got problems? The majority of hospitals will not house their employees. They will be expected to work a diaster, drive home, and then repeat this day after day? That’s why I said on an earlier thread HCW absenteeism will be in 80–90% bracket if CFR is high. That CFR is going to make the difference in work of all types.

AnnieBat 02:52

There is considerable difference in absenteeism due to illness - which is what the 35% to 40% figures are usually based on - and the absenteeism overall from illness and fear of illness - I agree this will push it to 80–90%.

When to SIP? Knowing people will be contagious before they are symptomatic makes this an extremely difficult decision to make. To be truely effective SIP has to commence before any infection reaches the region - how will we know that far in advance?

Without a crystal ball I guess we will have to rely on gut instinct.

Goju – at 07:49

at the conference i attended in Sept, one study was mentioned that projected 90% worker outages.

Bluebonnet – at 08:50

Blue - this is what has me concerned as well. Folks I work with are notorious for coming to work sick with all kinds of germs!

I’m like you as well - I can SIP for a while but not forever. Also as a nonessential state employee I think my state will send me home on some sort of administrative paid leave. They normally do that for hurricanes, floods, etc. But how long will they pay us? Maybe 2 weeks at the max?

crfullmoon – at 09:05

Blue, “If someone walks into a room(e.g. office) breathing Highly Pathogenic Bird Flu, spends the working day in there, and then goes home and decides that he is too sick to go to work from then on”

more importantly perhaps, how many other people did that person infect at home, on the way to work, at work, at lunch, at meetings, on the way home from work…?

Sure am amazed some officials still say the cfr has to drop; it could spread without that, by transmitting before illness, and, great air fares. (And, how many people people come in contact with every day.)

Sounds like planning for a Cat.1 hurricane, because, it is, on average, more likely, and, you know your levees won’t hold past Cat.2. (When the weather scientists are pointing to a Cat.5 hurricane offshore, askin’, Whatcha gonna do, when it comes for you?!)

29 October 2006

Blue – at 22:08
 I think CFR dropping would also mean that symptoms would be less severe, so that even when symptoms appear they are infact almost invisible/ just not worried about/obvious as to being a potentially lethal little travelling concern…and in this way it spreads to substantially more people!

 !Something with a high CFR would have considerably worse, therefore more noticeable, side feffects!

 Good point though-it could still spread with a high CFR…but I doubt it would get as far-therefore maybe not reaching a pandemic status.

 This would probably be the reason that other viruses don’t get out of hand…but I can’t think of specific examples as I don’t know too much about viruses, fullstop.
DennisCat 22:14

Blue – at 22:08 “it could still spread with a high CFR…but I doubt it would get as far”

I had been thinking that the CFR would drop. However, then I read about the Aztec and smallpox (a virus). They had about a 80% death rate. So that seems to say that a very high CFR could exist when it is a “new” virus with no immunity.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Quickclot Might Be Handy During SIP

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Quickclot Might Be Handy During SIP

16 October 2006

new name – at 22:55

For any injury that results in bleeding you might find having Quickclot on hand would be a life-saver. Marines in Iraq have had good and bad luck in using it. From what I understand it is a powder that you would put on any arterial wound or any other injury that has uncontrolled bleeding. This is the site where I read about it.

 http://tinyurl.com/ye54sc

I hope the tiny url works as I’ve never used one before.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 23:20

Boy, they sure poo-paa-ed the product in that article….it is usually available on eBay for a discounted price from what you find it on retail sites. I’ve thought about giving it a try…wonder if any military guys here have ever had first hand experience with the product?

17 October 2006

Madamspinner – at 00:29

You can also find it in animal supply catalogs. It’s probably cheaper that way, also. I had an unfortunate run-in with muggers many years ago; cuts on face, etc. and used the Quik Stop they have ; with excellant results…NO stitches needed after that. I still have a bottle and it’s in with my preps.

kc_quiet – at 00:36
Bird Guano – at 00:53

Make sure you get the NEWER formulation, not the old stuff.

There was an exothermic reaction problem with the old formulation.

Fiddlerdave – at 01:01

Along that line, I regularly use a product called “Nu-Skin”, its reminiscent of airplane glue, you paint it on, it dries watertight. I work around biological waste in hospitals sometimes, and I use it on any smaller cut that might be infected, and I have held together the edges of larger cuts and “glued it” on the outside too. But the best thing is really “sealing” the opening or scrape in a way no bandage does if you are going to get dirty. Not practical on large wounds.

MAV in Colorado – at 02:37

Fiddler- Like you said, Nu-skin is GREAT stuff for the little nicks and minor cuts. A couple coats and it usually lasts a couple days. Very good way to keep clean wounds clean. Good stuff.

Clot powders and cellulose type blood stopper pads/sponges (there are many on the market) work great for persistant major oozing. I can’t imagine them replacing the basic first aid maneuvers for controlling arterial bleeders in the field though. If the standard first aid maneuvers: elevation, direct pressure and pressure to the appropriate upstream pressure point and patience (10–20 minutes or even more) don’t stop the bleed, it is time to find the actual vessel, clamp and tie it off. Like the review implied, basic first aid measures work really well.

jplanner – at 03:04

my understanding is that Quick clot is pure potatoe starch. Can anyone varify? I bought a can of potatoe starch and have lots of gause bandages (and sanitary napkins which make great, absorbant bandages…similar to abdominal (ABD) pads in hospital dressings)

Probably I won;t end up using either: as MAV in Colorado describes above…but food grade potatoe starch, not sterile but high quality and clean, was very cheap in the supermarket so no harm done.

2beans – at 07:00

jplanner:

About a year ago one of our regular posters was a paramedic and he said he always carried an unopened bag of instant potatoes in his kit to stop bleeding and said it works very well.

Kim – at 07:55

Yes, potato starch is the ingredient. You can buy a 2–3 lb sack of it at your grocery store for about $3. In a pinch, instant mashed potatoes will work too, just crush them up with your fingers while sprinkling them on. Works quite well. You can find many other articles on this subject by googling the words “potato starch bleeding”.

http://annieappleseedproject.org/potpowstopbl.html

Kim – at 07:57

Meant to say that you can find potato starch in a grocery store where the specialty flours are.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 09:20

MAV in Colorado – at 02:37 the way I understood it, Quick Clot was an Israeli army thing first and it was used by the military to put on BIG holes in people, not just deep cuts and the like. The sole purpose was to be able to get someone from a front-line injury to the MASH area where the surgeons were without them bleeding to death. Apparently it didn’t work as well as expected for some.

MAV in Colorado – at 21:14

Coagulation enhanching materials have been used during surgery for many years for persistant diffuse oozing situations (ie hepatic/splenic lacerations/fractures) that are not controllable with suture ligation, electrocautery or other means. Most of these products include some form of thrombin, fibrin, calcium, vitamin K and/or a variety of patented mixes of various clotting factors. They work great in those situations. But these are not arterial bleeds, strictly speaking. Just persistant moderate oozing which cannot be left to go on.

A traumatic injury that produces blood loss sufficient to be life threatening needs to be controlled. With a peripheral arterial injury these products are “washed away” from the site of arterial injury by the high pressure arterial flow. Like trying to put sawdust or a sponge on a charged garden hose with a gash in it. As long as there is flow your “hosed” so to speak. Now, that said, if one were to apply basic first aid measures (proximal pressure point compression sufficient to occlude the vessel and dramatically reduce the outflow at the site of injury), one might be able to place one of these clotting materials at the precise site of injury and with some patience (time) have success. This could work unless rather than a gash you have a complete or near complete laceration of the artery in which case you need to identify, clamp and tie (or last choice torniquet).

In a central arterial (abdominal or chest) injury causing life threatening blood loss, ie “a big hole”, mearly “plugging the hole” won’t help. It may look like the bleeding has stopped on the outside but the chest and abdomen are large enough to contain a persons entire blood volume. Not a good place for it to be.

Using potatoe flakes or other non-sterile foriegn materials introduces a major source of contamination that one way or another will need to be debrided (removed) and delt with to prevent infection (IF the patient were to make it).

I think in austere conditions you need to have basic first aid knowledge. These very basic techniques will save the vast majority of salvagable cases if properly applied. And it’s easy to learn. For peripheral (arm and leg) bleeding: elevate, apply direct pressure to the injury, apply pressure to the upstream pressure point (see chart of arterial pressure points), tourniquet (last resort) etc. http://tinyurl.com/y5ghdc

I think the basic 1st aid courses through the Red Cross are about 16 hrs and used to be in the $40 range. Well worth it if you want to consider yourself “prepared”. The CERT programs offer a 1st aid section (usually 1 night of the 5 night course) that is geared for disaster situations. Significantly different from general first aid.

Don’t overlook this basic area of preparedness.

29 October 2006

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 18:19

Can you sterilize the potato starch in the oven or microwave? Who would know about that?

crfullmoon – at 18:49

Just wanted to let you know; I can’t think about that box of instant potatoes on the shelf as “just for dinner” anymore. Yug.

Bird Guano – at 19:10

Also get some Opsite dressings.

Keeps the wounds clean after treatment,and allows them to drain if needed.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 20:15

Opsite dressings…..okeydoke, I’ll add it to the ever-growing list of things I still need!

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / News Reports for October 8

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: News Reports for October 8

08 October 2006

pogge – at 13:18

Yesterday’s news thread is here.

Leo7 – at 01:21

Article from Fort Wayne Newspaper: Pandemic flu: A guide for families. Read here: http://tinyurl.com/fsy3g

anonymous – at 13:21

Commentary

Mammalian H5N1 Evolution in Indonesia Recombinomics Commentary October 7, 2006 - http://tinyurl.com/mmx3g

The recent announcements of H5N1 bird flu in cats in Indonesia, coupled with results from expanded sequencing of poultry strongly signal the existence of a separate mammalian H5N1 reservoir in Indonesia that is responsible for the vast majority of human cases.

This separate reservoir creates significant problems, because most of the attention has focused on infected poultry, and the mammalian reservoir has been significantly under investigated and under reported.

Therefore, a review of the evolution of this mammalian reservoir is useful. Although Indonesia did not acknowledge H5N1 infections until 2004, the first isolates were from birds in 2003. Sequence analysis of the 2003 and 2004 isolates indicated the H5N1 was Clade 2 and had a number of genetic markers that were specific for Indonesia.

The first human case was reported in July of 2005, and the sequence of the isolate, A/Indonesia/5/2005 had the Indonesia specific markers, but also had a number of unique polymorphisms, including one that created a novel HA cleavage site, RESRRKKR. However, the second human isolate, A/Indonesia/6/2005 had the more common HA cleavage site, RERRRKKR, and was similar to bird isolates. Subsequent human isolates in 2005 had the novel cleavage site, but several had an additional silent change, so although the cleavage site matched the first sequence at the protein level, there were a number of changes at the nucleotide level that divided the sequences with the novel cleavage site into two groups.

However, as the number of sequences increased in early 2006, it became increasingly clear that the human sequences were separating from the poultry sequences, all of which had the common bird cleavage site. The first match of the human sequences was from H5N1 from a throat swab of a cat in Indramayu near a residence were two siblings died from H5N1 infections. The sequence of the cat isolate not only matched the more recent human sequences, but was very close to the sequences of the isolates from the two siblings, A/Indonesia/283H/2006 and A/Indonesia/286H/2006, as well as other human isolates from Indramayu, A/Indonesia/292H/2006 and A/Indonesia/304H/2006. New isolates in 2006 collected from patients in East and West Java were sequenced and all were matches of more recent sequences such as the four human and one cat isolate from Indramayu.

In May of 2006 however, there was a new cluster in the Karo regency in north Sumatra. This outbreak was the largest to date and involve secondary and tertiary transmissions of H5N1. Consequently a meeting was call by WHO and consultants in Jakarta in June. Included in the presentation was a phylogenetic tree that summarized the H5N1 Indonesian isolates as of June 12, 2006.

The tree, which had the human sequences in green and the Karo cluster shaded in pink, clearly showed the match problem. All of the sequences with the novel cleavage site were on the lower portion of the tree and there were no poultry sequences on these two lower branches. Moreover, all of the recent human sequences from Java were on the lowest branch, which was even further from the poultry isolates. Thus, the human isolates were evolving away from the poultry isolates, suggesting the existence of a separate mammalian reservoir.

However, all of the human isolates were from July, 2005 or later, while most of the bird isolates were from earlier dates. Therefore 91 samples were schedule for shipment to Australia for virus isolation and sequencing. The samples were from infections between September, 2005 and March, 2006.

As sequences from these more recent and geographically dispersed isolates began to be published, it was becoming increasingly clear that the vast majority of the human infections on Java were not from domestic poultry. Each human sequence mapped to the lower portion of the tree and which was more distinct from the bird sequences.

The second set of new bird sequences included an isolate with the novel cleavage site. It was from a duck on Indramayu isolated in 2006. However, that isolate match the upper branch of the human sequences, which were composed of six isolates from three patients in 2005. Thus, although every human isolate in 2006 was matching the lower branch, the one duck sequence matched the upper branch.

The third set of poultry sequence had two matched with the lower branch. However, the two matches were from chickens in central Sumatra from 2005. Thus, none of the poultry isolates matched the lower human branch, while all human isolates, as well as the cat isolate, matched the lower human branch.

These data again supported a separate reservoir for the human sequences, and the only matches on Java were from the one cat, and all human isolates. The recent announcement indicates more H5N1 has been detected in cats, but the sequences of those isolates have not been released. Swine H5N1 sequences have been reported, but none match the human sequences.

The match failures pose a major problem because testing of humans is largely limited to patients how have been near dead or dying poultry. However, the poultry association has not been linked to the human infections, so an expanded testing of patients with symptoms is warranted. Similarly, more sequencing of H5N1 from other reservoirs is warranted by the match failures between mammalian and avian sequences.

Pixie – at 13:25

That was me at anonymous – at 13:21.

Comment: Dr. Niman states here that the Indonesian pig sequences do not match the human sequences any more than the bird sequences do. He has also stated previously that the rat/mice sequences are also not similar to those of the humans and cats.

NJ Jeeper – at 13:46

Another Scientist comes out in suport of prepping. See quote near end of article.

Scientist urge to prepare for a bird flu pandemic

08/Oct/2006: ‘Start preparing for the next flu pandemic’, is the message from the organizer of an expedition to unearth samples of the devastating Spanish flu pandemic in 1918 and 1919. Kristy Duncan, a scientist at the University of Toronto, warns that it is just a matter of time before another deadly bird flu pandemic strikes the world.

Building supplies of food, water, medication and other essential items could help us to tide over the bird flu pandemic, if one strikes.

Duncan, who is also the author of the book, ‘Hunting the 1918 Flu: One Scientist’s Search for a Killer Virus’ said that there are strong similarities between how the Spanish Flu virus killed and how today’s H5N1 strain kills, which raises fear of another deadly pandemic. Duncan had led a scientific expedition during the 1990’s, to exhume the bodies of a group of Norwegian miners, who died in the Spanish flu pandemic.

The subtype of the H1N1 strain (responsible for the Spanish flu endemic) and the current H5N1 strain of the Influenza virus, mainly kill the young and healthy, instead of the elderly and the infants.

Many countries have not yet prepared any emergency plans to counter a bird-flu out break. Only 15% of the U.S businesses have a contingency plan in place for a pandemic, even after the U.S president urged all the businesses in U.S to develop an emergency plan to face a pandemic. The case is much worse in Canada, where only 4% of the businesses have a contingency plan for flu pandemic.

An estimate by the U.S Centers for Disease Control, say that the next pandemic to hit a place like Toronto would leave 700,000 people needing medical attention and 40,000 needing hospitalization. Duncan said that a crisis of this proportion could not be managed, if people are not prepared for it.

She added that, to prepare for a pandemic, people should stock pile food and water that could last up to 6 to 8 weeks and store prescription and non-prescription drugs and other medicines that could last for the same period.

The World Health Organization has been warning of another pandemic ever since 1968, when the last of the three pandemics of the 20th century, occurred. Duncan feels that people are lucky this time, as this is the first time in history they have an opportunity to prepare for a pandemic.

For more information click here http://www.vaccine-info.com

http://www.clipp.org/health/content/78.php

KimTat 15:06

China http://tinyurl.com/e54eq

China warns of bird flu outbreaks (AFP) Updated: 2006–10–08 07:05

BEIJING - China has reportedly asked local authorities to be on guard against a resurgence of bird flu with the onset of the autumn migration season.

“Autumn and winter are the prime period for bird flu outbreaks,” said Yin Chengjie, vice-minister of agriculture, told the official Xinhua news agency, adding that officials “should not underestimate the difficulties in virus control.”

KimTat 15:10

http://tinyurl.com/n9v7p

Avian Flu Pandemic is Likely Much Ado about Something By Patricia-Anne Tom October 10, 2006

“Pandemics happen. What we don’t know is when it’s going to happen and how bad it’s going to be,” according to Rick Casse, former director of business continuity planning for Gap Inc. Speaking to the Golden Gate Chapter of the Risk and Insurance Management Society Inc. (RIMS), Casse said that’s the reason businesses should prepare for a possible avian flu pandemic.

Klatu – at 16:15

Monday, October 09, 2006

Philippines: Agri dep’t signals bird flu alarm

“MIGRATORY birds have started flocking Northern Mindanao’s wetlands, an Agriculture official said, warning the public against hunting fowls that may carry the dreaded highly pathogenic Avian Influenza or “bird flu.”

‘’‘Joel Rodinas, head of the Department of Agriculture in Northern Mindanao, urged the public to avoid contact with migratory birds and to report suspicious animal diseases. “

Among the bird flu hotspots are the swamps located in the Misamis Oriental towns of Opol, Alubijid, Balingasag, the city of Gingoog and Maramag town in Bukidnon and Bonifacio municipality of Misamis Occidental.’‘’

Rodinas said his office routinely collect samples from all identified migratory birds sanctuaries in Region-10 to detect the virulent AI strain among local fowls.

Effective monitoring and early detection of the disease will be further enhanced with the coming of a high-tech machine capable immediately identifying bird flu, he said.

Currently, local samples are sent to the Manila laboratory for re-examination and for final confirmation, he said.

The machine, to be procured from the grant provided by the Japanese government, will arrive before the year ends, he said, adding early detection of the virus was crucial to its immediate containment.

“Once we have the latest equipment, we can then conduct our tests with authority and confirm the same certainty,” he said.

Pandemic

Cagayan de Oro, which is sandwiched between the region’s wetlands frequented by migratory birds, has already passed an ordinance banning the hunting of migratory birds and creating a bird flu task force.

The Misamis Oriental provincial government has done the same.

Rodinas underscored the local government’s preparedness in containing bird flu, saying local initiatives have helped the country to avoid the dreaded disease, and will minimize the impact in case a bird flu pandemic occurs.

The Philippines is the only remaining bird flu-free region in South East Asia.

Last month, Health Secretary Francisco Duque said the department has standby funds that could accommodate 66,000 patients in case flu pandemic happens.” -excerpt

http://www.sunstar.com.ph/static/cag/2006/10/09/news/agri.dep.t.signals.bird.flu.alarm.html

Klatu – at 17:04

Scientist urge to prepare for a bird flu pandemic

“ that people are lucky this time”

08/Oct/2006: ‘Start preparing for the next flu pandemic’, is the message from the organizer of an expedition to unearth samples of the devastating Spanish flu pandemic in 1918 and 1919. Kristy Duncan, a scientist at the University of Toronto, warns that it is just a matter of time before another deadly bird flu pandemic strikes the world.

Building supplies of food, water, medication and other essential items could help us to tide over the bird flu pandemic, if one strikes.

Duncan, who is also the author of the book, ‘Hunting the 1918 Flu: One Scientist’s Search for a Killer Virus’ said that there are strong similarities between how the Spanish Flu virus killed and how today’s H5N1 strain kills, which raises fear of another deadly pandemic. Duncan had led a scientific expedition during the 1990’s, to exhume the bodies of a group of Norwegian miners, who died in the Spanish flu pandemic.

The subtype of the H1N1 strain (responsible for the Spanish flu endemic) and the current H5N1 strain of the Influenza virus, mainly kill the young and healthy, instead of the elderly and the infants.

Only 15% of the U.S businesses have a contingency plan in place for a pandemic, even after the U.S president urged all the businesses in U.S to develop an emergency plan to face a pandemic. The case is much worse in Canada, where only 4% of the businesses have a contingency plan for flu pandemic.

An estimate by the U.S Centers for Disease Control, say that the next pandemic to hit a place like Toronto would leave 700,000 people needing medical attention and 40,000 needing hospitalization. Duncan said that a crisis of this proportion could not be managed, if people are not prepared for it.

She added that, to prepare for a pandemic, people should stock pile food and water that could last up to 6 to 8 weeks and store prescription and non-prescription drugs and other medicines that could last for the same period.

‘’‘The World Health Organization has been warning of another pandemic ever since 1968, when the last of the three pandemics of the 20th century, occurred. Duncan feels that people are lucky this time, as this is the first time in history they have an opportunity to prepare for a pandemic.” - exerpt

http://www.clipp.org/health/content/78.php

LEG – at 17:21

I can not find any news ref India…am I missing where it might be posted?

Klatu – at 17:52

Kenya Bans Import of poultry banned after bird flu outbreak in Juba, Sudan

The NATION

Publication Date: 10/9/2006

“Importation of poultry and its products using the Lokichoggio Airstrip and roads linking Kenya to southern Sudan has been banned after cases of bird flu were reported in Juba.

Turkana district veterinary officer George Omari yesterday alerted Lokichoggio, Kakuma, Oropoi and Kalokol residents of the new measure.

The World Health Organisation also confirmed the report. The agency’s officials operating in Juba, Southern Sudan, said four birds had died of the flu at a local farm.

However, no human cases were reported.

Dr Omari cautioned hotel owners to observe high standards of hygienic when handling poultry products saying domestic birds were at risk of contracting the disease and spreading it.

He also asked residents to report suspected cases of dead birds to the veterinary department.

The department has started collecting blood samples from birds in the area for testing at the Kenya Medical Research Institute (Kemri), said the officer.

“If some local birds will test positive, the department will kill all birds in the area and pay the owners,” he said.

Dr Omari noted that the International Rescue Committee (IRC), a humanitarian health organisation operating at a refugee camp in Sudan, had started educating people about the disease.” - excerpt

http://www.nationmedia.com/dailynation/nmgcontententry.asp?category_id=1&newsid=83026

Klatu – at 17:53

Map of Sudan, Juba:

witness – at 18:00

Leg at 17:21 The new india thread has some good links to get started.

LEG – at 18:05

thanks witness.

Klatu – at 18:13

The following might come in handy during the next few weeks.

LEG – at 18:26

incredibly helpful Klatu, thanks.

Urdar-Norge – at 18:51

I am allredy very thankfull to Duncan. It was the expidition on Svalbard in Norway that made me aware of the pandemic threat. Its good she now warns people :)

Urdar-Norge – at 18:51

I am allredy very thankfull to Duncan. It was the expidition on Svalbard in Norway that made me aware of the pandemic threat. Its good she now warns people :)

Monotreme – at 18:51

Mississippi, USA

Doctor will lecture on pandemic flu issues

A timely topic, “Pandemic Influenza: To Worry or Not to Worry,” is the first Issues + Answers of the 2006–07 Gulf Coast Public Lecture Series.

Sponsored by the University of Southern Mississippi and the Sun Herald, the lecture will be Thursday evening in Gulfport. A question and answer session is also scheduled.

[snip]

What: “Pandemic Influence: To Worry or Not to Worry,” the first in the 2006–07 Gulf Coast Public Lecture Series

When: 7 p.m. Thursday

Where: Auditorium, Memorial Hospital at Gulfport (the former West Elementary School; turn east at hospital parking garage and watch for signs)

http://tinyurl.com/ndpao

Monotreme – at 18:54

California, USA

Avian Flu Pandemic is Likely Much Ado about Something

“Pandemics happen. What we don’t know is when it’s going to happen and how bad it’s going to be,” according to Rick Casse, former director of business continuity planning for Gap Inc. Speaking to the Golden Gate Chapter of the Risk and Insurance Management Society Inc. (RIMS), Casse said that’s the reason businesses should prepare for a possible avian flu pandemic.

According to Casse, the influenza strain H5N1 that currently is a bird flu, has the potential to mutate into a human virus. Previously, he said the virus wasn’t very widespread. However, starting last year, the virus has been spreading rapidly throughout the wild and domestic bird populations, and now is in 10 countries — countries in which Gap does business in. Further emphasizing the concern, the virus is spreading from birds to mammals, which indicates it is evolving, Casse said. “It’s those potential mutations to the virus that make it more easily transmitted among people and create some of the risk of a pandemic,” he said.

[snip]

And in the meantime, Casse recommended businesses create a preparedness plan that takes into account work stoppages for long periods of time and high employee absences.

http://tinyurl.com/n9v7p

Monotreme – at 18:56

Michigan, USA

Local officials prepared for flu pandemic

MARQUETTE — The best way to cope with a possible pandemic influenza situation is to be self-reliant, according to local health officials.

The Marquette County Health Department helped put on a pandemic influenza tabletop exercise at Northern Michigan University recently, simulating a scenario in which Marquette County was wracked by the effects of pandemic influenza.

“It’s critically important that people no longer make the assumption that the government will provide all the services that are needed,” said Cal Burdick, the health department’s emergency preparedness coordinator. “It’s really essential that people plan on being as independent as possible.”

[snip]

However, it’s a fine line between wanting to tell people about the enormity of the potential situation but not incite panic, Burdick said.

“The best way to stem panic is to give people the information beforehand so they can anticipate and prepare for the worst,” he said. “It’s a very serious illness that could result in death. However, if people take certain measures to protect themselves it would certainly lessen their chance of contracting something like that.”

http://tinyurl.com/nfrxu

DennisCat 23:15

The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture has striking news- Outbreak of Bird Flu in NW China “ new outbreak of bird flu was detected in a village situated NW China. According to the Chinese officials the H5N1 virus has already killed nearly 1,000 domestic birds. The laboratory test confirmed the fact that the Chinese authorities failed in preventing the outbreak of new bird flue cases. The Ministry of Agriculture has publicly admitted that more should have been done to prevent the outbreak….

Unfortunately this is the second outbreak of bird flu to be reported in China in less than ten days. Health experts confirmed the existence of H5N1 virus in China’s Inner Mongolia Region at the end of September. “

http://tinyurl.com/enozg

DennisCat 23:31

not H5N1, but problems “near” the last Thai H5N1 death Sep 26

“More than 138,000 people in 20 flood-hit provinces have suffered from water-borne diseases, the Public Health Ministry said yesterday. The flood situation remains at crisis levels in several areas …

number of people with water-borne diseases has increased sharply. More than 5,000 people sought medical treatment in hospitals and health stations on Saturday alone. Most turned up with symptoms such as fever, rash and athlete’s foot, a skin disease caused by fungus..

http://tinyurl.com/zernd

and just to keep the Thai situation in perspective from the Thai update site

“Cumulative number of patients under surveillance are 5,177 cases … There are 21 cases under investigate reported, of which waiting for laboratory result”

http://tinyurl.com/lxdzb

09 October 2006

On the fence and leaning – at 00:00

Klatu: Thanks for the map. That helped me a ton.

Hey Mods: Klatu’s map is very helpful. Would it be a good idea to put it somewhere on the site where we can find it easily in the future. Easier than combing through past News Posts.

lugon – at 04:57

This is not strictly news, but it’s related to Awareness Week and the distinction between bird flu and pandemic flu. It’s in Spanish - here.

29 October 2006

pogge – at 15:37
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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Flu Prep XXIV

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Flu Prep XXIV

05 October 2006

Bronco Bill – at 18:00

Number Eks Eks Eye Vee. Continued from here


Kathy in FL – at 10:22

Carrey in VA – at 10:15
Homemade apple butter is far and away better than anything you find at the store … and I live fiddling with the flavorings/spices to make each batch just a bit different.

You can also make “butters” from other fruits as well … some of my favorites are pumpkin, pear, and peach.

Hillbilly Bill – at 10:23 another candle supply company

Hillbilly Bill – at 10:28

I think I’m going to start saving jelly jars and other small glass containers for candle making.

Sailor – at 11:07

Hillbilly Bill – at 10:28
HBB You would want to confirm that the jars you are using will not crack with the heat which may cause a fire if the candle is no longer contained in the broken jar.

lady biker – at 18:12

well I just got back from shopping, I actually have fun finding what I want. I bought four more gas cans , filled them up added stabil and put them in the garage. every little bit helps. I did pick up more cleaning supplies and bath soap. can never be too clean about anything. I do have to get more meats and fruits and am workin up to that. I keep gettin side tracked. I am havin a hard time gettin away from cleanin stuff, probably cause I can’t visualize not having or being able to get anymore. I am putting up more pumpkin butter tomorrow. I bought some pumpkins and jars today too. fun fun time and it’s feel good time too. someone will enjoy it.LOLOL

lohrewok – at 19:32

Oh Boy Oberto! Thanks to someone’s heads up last week I went ahead and took advantage of the factory closeout’s that Obertos was having on their jerky and cheese products. free shipping on orders over 75.00 So today I got a huge box of all different types of dried meat. and some processed cheese. Well worth the $.

Also got the black berkey filter. Finally got DH to agree to rig up a water filteration system. Now just need to find those plans someone posted before…

Malachi – at 22:35

Went and picked 4 bushels of grapes from a sweet couple out in Amish country today.They also loaded me down with squash and Rhubarb and tipped me off to a church yard sale where I got 40 pint jars for 4.00.Since I was in the neighborhood I swung by the discount/outdated/dented can store.Wow,I cannot stress enough how cool those places can be.I only started out with 12 bucks,but my list of finds included 4 pack double rolls of tp 60cents a pack,Taste of Thai seasoning packs and Peanut chicken coating 25 cents a pack,Taste of Thai fish oil 50 cents,Grey poupon mustard 35 cents,Star Bucks coffee beans 1.10 12 ozs,Progresso Lentil soup 55 cents,Great deals…..They also had local raw honey 9.99 for 6 lbs tub.I will have to return for those.With all my messing around I only got 3 1/2 gallons of juice made tho.

06 October 2006

Hillbilly Bill – at 16:19

Boxed pizza kits make good preps. They store well and provide a decent meal as is, or can be improved with other preps such as canned mushrooms, dried or canned hamburger or sausage, dried or canned cheese, etc. The ones I get at Aldi’s make 8 big slices of pizza and the price is really reasonable.

orange-brown – at 17:20

Emergency Essentials has freeze-dried MANGO on sale for $ 15 a #10 can (when you buy 6 or more)

http://tinyurl.com/jbojm

Scaredy Cat – at 17:51

If you order one of the “group specials” (as long as you order a certain minimum, e.g., 6 cans of mangos) you get free delivery for your entire order.

I did that recently with the granola they have on sale. Ordered 6 cans, free shipping for everything.

Scaredy Cat – at 17:54

Sorry, forgot to add “Emergency Essentials” to the above post.

Carrey in VA – at 18:04

well the apple butter is done and canned and boy is it yummy on toast!! My really big crock pot full of apples (one of those oval crockpots, not the smaller round one) made exactly 3 and a half pints of apple butter! LOL Jeez I didn’t realize it would cook down so much. But man is it tasty, and EASY! I peeled, cored and quartered a crockpot full of apples, then filled the pot about half way with water and turn it on high yesterday morning. Last night at supper time the apples were cooked down but still watery so I added the sugar and cinamon, then took the lid off,turned it down on low and left it over night. The next morning I had perfectly thickened and browned apple butter.

Next time I’ll let it cook on high over night, and then let it simmer on low with the lid off during the day so I can keep it stirred. There was a film on top this morning cause I hadn’t stirred it.

So if you’ve been thinking about trying, go ahead and do it. It’s SOOO worth it.

silversage – at 22:16

Thanks for the head’s up on candle making. My Joann’s going out of business and as I was browsing around I came upon the candle stuff. 60% off, I got vybar for hardening, a couple pounds of wax, and 12 yards of wick. I bought 24hour candles in heavy glass for 25 cents apeice from the grocery store(I got about 4 dozen). I plan on using them for Halloween and then refilling them. Would never have though about it if I hadn’t read it here on fluwikie!

Suzyinaz – at 22:27

HI

If you are in the Tucson, Az area the Albertson’s Food Stores have Quacker Oats in the big 42 oz size 10 for $10.00. This makes a great prep item.

Suzy

silversage – at 22:30

LOL: quack quack! Was that a freudian slip?

Suzyinaz – at 22:32

silversage – at 22:30

Yes, it was. Sorry about that. It should have read Quaker Oats.

silversage – at 22:35

I was just on the humor thread and my funny bone is still tingling…Don’t ya just love all our typos?

07 October 2006

Kathy in FL – at 15:36

Hillbilly Bill – at 16:19

You can also turn those boxed pizza things into calzones by folding them in half after you’ve layered all your leftovers. <grin> Trust me … we’ve had some wild calzones this way, but they turn out really well.

Kathy in FL – at 16:13

For those of you who are looking for canned/bottled 100% juices to supplement your fluids in your preps … or you are looking for juices to make jams and jellies with … I just found out that our local Target carries blueberry juice and pomegranate juice as a regular item.

They also have some unusual specialty sodas … blood orange, strawberry-lime, green apple, grapefruit, etc. I’m probably going to go fill a grocery cart with that later this month. I want the blueberry and pomegranate juice for canning … the sodas will be for treats during SIP, if they last that long.

Also, they’ve got some half-size silly sodas for kids right now … gruesome grape, berried alive, spider cider, and <drumroll please> candy corn. Thought these would be great distractions for the kids if necessary.

And our local Target has some of its store brands of food on clearance. Their “helper” type casseroles are on 82 cents a box and weren’t bad at all. They also have their pkg of six microwaveable macaroni mixes for about a buck fifty I think. Might be a good, easy prep item for the kids to have on hand.

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 17:20

My BJs was havng flu clinic today. Zero line. I asked the nurse if they’ve been busy at all and she said ‘no. It’s been really slow”. Anyway, flu vac and pneumovac both for $50.00, for anyone who might be having difficulty finding them.

Texas Rose – at 18:06

Got my Texas Atlas the other day. The husband started leafing through it and making little happy noises. The man loves a good map, I guess.

08 October 2006

nopower – at 13:09

Picked up 2 more security cameras and a PCI card (ebay) that will take 4 cameras and record (I already had 2 cameras).

http://tinyurl.com/ptx27 Sam’s lists them for $40 online, but they are $20 in the store. My local store didn’t have anymore, so I hit the next store north and they easily had 200.

I think it is good for what it is, a cheap non-water proof color camera. Plus the 110v adapter puts out 12v so I plan to wire them to a battery if the power fails. I have a 5″ B/W TV that is also 12v and I would use a simple RCA switcher to change the cameras.

This has been a project before I started prepping for panflu that I’m finally getting around to.

Dennis in Colorado – at 14:14

I found a 23,000 BTU kerosene heater on Home Depot’s web site for $83 (marked down from $119). Shipping was $27. I checked our local Home Depot and the price there was $124. Today, I took a print-out from the web site to the store, and asked for the “online sale price.” They honored that, and I bought it for $83. I put it together, filled it with kerosene, and am waiting the requisite 60 minutes before lighting it.

09 October 2006

Dennis in Colorado – at 21:56

The kerosene heater has exceeded my expectations. It is easy to light, heats a large room (and two adjacent rooms) very well, and has no perceptable odor except immediately after being extinguished. It is approximately 12–14 inches in diameter and a cast iron skillet can rest directly on the top plate of the heater and bring water to a boil in ~15 minutes.

sam in az – at 22:12

I bought four blue 55 gallon food-grade drums for $16 each. Previously held soy sauce. He also had white drums which previously held vinegar. Had siphon pumps, extra bungs, bung wrench etc. too. Feel much better about our water supply now.

Also bought a boys bike (I have short legs) for $5 from craigslist. Now I have to learn about all those speeds. When I was a kid speed was only determined by how fast you pedalled.

Petticoat Junction – at 22:14

I have been doing lots of ‘paper preps’…organizing birth certs & such, making a household inventory, etc.

I’m also doing a lot of reorganization in the garage and closets (to make room for preps & for ease of access in case the lights are out), with many resultant postings on Freecycle and trips to Goodwill, lol. We have a small house but it’s amazing what a change in priorities will do for how you view ‘stuff.’

Actual purchases are still on the extreme budget plan, though I was very happy to find a 2-for-the-price-of-1 pkg of the large size Lysol wipes at Walmart last night; managed to scrounge an extra $10 to get two sets. I’d been contemplating how to make them at home myself (visions of baby wipe boxes, paper towels, and 91% rubbing alcohol) but this is a happy splurge for me.

Everything has taken a back seat to my husband’s health right now, though. His blood pressure has been spiking since last week and 5 calls (in 4 days) to the cardiologist later (grr) there has still been no response from the dr’s office. Keeps me ever mindful of what life in SIP may be like. And even more determined to find a way to get the extra meds that have so far eluded us. (Especially since his mother died of a stroke at 45, only a few yrs older than he is now, and he is the age that his father had his first massive heart attack.)

10 October 2006

Texas Rose – at 02:19

I tried my hand at dehydrating pineapple and peaches today and learned a valuable lesson, which I will pass on to others: Don’t put the fruit on paper towels for the dehydrating process.

The towels absorbed liquid and some sugar and dried out, forming an impenetrable shell on the pan. I scraped off as much as I could and the pans are currently soaking in the sink in the hope the rest of the paper will dissolve enough that I can remove the bits.

In addition, there are bits of paper stuck to pieces of fruit. I picked off as much as I could but whoever eats those particular pieces will get a bit of extra fiber in the diet.

I’ve filed this under “Useful Information I Wish I’d Known BEFORE I Did It”.<grin>

lohrewok – at 07:43

Thru freecycle here I scored a nearly new vaccum sealer, 2 unopened boxes of bags, and 2 vaccum sealer casserole dishes. My brother is going to be so jealous. :)

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 10:59

Petticoat Junction – at 22:14 I hope your husband’s condition gets stabilized — that can be very scary for both you and him.

I know what you mean about the big purchases list being on hold…..but I moved one thing off of it yesterday. We’ve had a portable generator since before Y2k & we’ve used it on a few occasions. It runs off propane so I have extra BBQ tanks for it, but don’t want to have to use them up recklessly. Yesterday I went back to Sam’s, after having researched what I’d seen there the other day, got a guest pass from the guy at the door, and bought (with an added 10% fee for not being a member) a Vector Power Center.

It’s an AC/DC portable power supply with AM/FM & NOAA Weather Alert Radio. We can use the generator to top it off when needed (if the power is off) and then my husband can use it to run his laptop & cellphone to make working from home easier without running the genny for hours on end so he could work.

Eventually I’d like a solar setup to recharge things like this, but for now, this step helps us (me) feel more secure that he could continue to earn a paycheck even if the power is out!

I also bought a $20 15 million candlepower spotlight from Costco — it’s sorta bigger than the 2 yellow rechargeables we keep in our car trunks that NEVER stay charged. This thing absolutely lights up our living room as if I had all our major incandescent lights on. It’s amazing!!

I know that there are more powerful powerpacks out there; I was looking at a 600watt with 3 110V outlets, and the one I bought is a 400watt, with 2110V outlets, but we can use a surge protector in one of those outlets and increase the number of ‘things’ we plug in so long as we don’t run over the maximum wattage with any surges. But I got this one because it has a detachable LED flashlight, NOAA weather features & a USB port.

Coming home, my car ‘made a sound’ in the air conditioner which we’d had work done on a couple of weeks ago, so I took my stuff home & then drove to the shop to leave the car to be worked on. DH picked me up and on the way home I was telling him what I bought & explaining about the flashlight, the NOAA and the other great feature — a USB charging port. I was so proud of that! He then said, ‘why do we need a USB port’?

I was dumb-founded but pulled myself together long enough to say it was for his PDA, our digital camera, etc. That’s when he informed me that we don’t have anything that runs on USB’s!! I thought those cords that I connect our ‘little equipment’ to the computer with were USB cords but apparently they’re just plain cords.

SO. I’m going online shopping to see what all runs off USBs to see if I need to consider anything for a Christmas present!

He wasn’t upset about the $97 I spent on this powerpack because he can see the usefulness in it even if we never have to charge a USB.

I’m going to get a 600watt one with jumper cables next month for us to keep in our main car (it just doesn’t have the NOAA or detachable flashlight) and if the power goes out we can bring it in & use it so we’ll have one for ‘home office’ and one for everything else like cooking!

11 October 2006

BUMP – at 08:03
anonymous – at 09:25

Decided to look into getting a big army kitchen tent.One that we can start a fire in.Will put it up way way out back in case things progress to hiding in place.We have no basement or hiding room and feel lately that it would be prudent to have a spot to get away to.

Wrenna – at 13:05

I woke up early for a major shopping trip to super Wal-Mart. Finished before noon and beat the crowds. Spent over $300 and didn’t even buy everything on my list. While I’ve always been a careful shopper I’m more aware of prices now and found that I can get better deals on some things at the grocery store.

Over the summer about a months worth of food from the pantry was eaten. Replacing it and adding more was the primary goal today. Besides food I bought three more large containers of lamp oil, a couple of propane cannisters, 6 containers of antibacterial handwipes, a big dispenser of Germ-X, a couple of boxes of N95 masks, solid air fresheners, multiples of toiletries and some cleaning products. Now I’m ready for a nap.

diana – at 13:20

I think I should start cleaning out all the glass Sobe tea bottles I’ve been collecting. It’s astonishing how many empty bottles I’ve managed to collect. I prefer glass to plastic. Will also be researching 0 degree sleeping bags and learning how to knit since somewhere along the way I accumulated a lot of baa baa black sheep wool. I doubt if I could be accomplished enough to do a sweater. An afghan would be about my speed. I think everything I’ll do in the next weeks will be to conserve heat in my house. Clear plastic on the north side of the bedrooms. Bean snakes for the doors. Even if we don’t have a power outage it is reasonable to do what can be done without a lot of expense. My husband did some woodworking so I have a lot of good wood to burn if need be. Saw that climate change movie where they pitched a tent in the NYC Public library and burned books to keep warm in sub zero conditions. I decided then, last year ,that I would have to get a small pup tent to put in front of the fireplace and camp out indoors. I still haven’t, but all this talk of the grid being down is prodding me a little. It is time to stop thinking and start doing something.

DennisCat 13:48

diana – at 13:20 Bean snakes for the doors

great idea. A great way to keep down drafts and also a food storage item. I will make some.

15 October 2006

KimTat 16:28

Saw another thread about butane stoves and decided to check them out, did some research went to Sportsman and they have them for $19.99 and bought one as cooking source so I will be able to use more of my propane for heating. Also didn’t get one but a lot of you have talked about the Excaliber dehydrater being the cream of the crop—they had that on sale for $59. If you have a sportsman warehouse near you, they might have them on sale near you.

16 October 2006

De jure – at 12:27

I placed an order for some extra reishi mushrooms (dried). I’m using my current stockpile of dried reishi to prepare for a tea mixture. You need a good grinder to powder the tough exterior of this kind of mushroom, though, unless you use a pestal and mortar, as some do. I plan to mix it with some chaga that I’ve also ordered. Reishi has been used by the Chinese and others as an immune response modifier as well as an anti-inflamatory. Chaga has been used by the Russians as an influenza remedy (strong anti-viral and one of the most potent anti-oxidants), among other things.

Al – at 12:59

De jure, might you have a link to post for Chaga and reishi? Sounds interesting, thank you for sharing.

De jure – at 13:21

Al, the link for reishi is www.fungi.com. I have used them extensively before and am very satisfied with them. I am using a new source for the chaga, as fungi.com doesn’t have the dried mushroom form (they do, however, have the extract, but I’d like to make some hot water extracts with chaga to mix with other kinds). I’m using www.mitobi.com for dried chaga, and I’m just crossing my fingers that they’re as good as fungi.com.

Al – at 14:12

De jure, does it have a bitter taste? I’m wondering if the extract could be added to herbal teas and if the taste is palatable enough.

In noticing your handle, I’m also wondering if we ought to start thinking, on another thread perhaps, about “model” draft legislative initiatives regarding panflu issues, specifically in the domestic relations,, child contact and visitation area but also with respect to law enforcement priorities in crime, domestic violence and domestic abuse issues in the midst of a national emergency. I know of nothing on the horizon about how the Courts and law enforcement will handle things that arise and how local resources will be prioitized. I am confident that even if the grid were down, some of our local court clerks and law enforcement personnel would drag themselves in to work, walking if needs be, at least in my area, even in the middle of chaos reigning around them. This has just been kicking around in my brain for awhile and I wondered if you’ve given it any thought or have seen any discussion about it somewhere. I’m sure that broader issues like debt relief might be introduced on the legislative level but I’m thinking local here. Thanks for the fungi links.

De jure – at 15:12

Al, there are 2 kinds of extracts: alcohol precipitates and hot water based extracts. Most of the active polysaccharides in medicinal mushrooms are soluble in water; however, there are different active compounds in the same kind of mushroom that can only be extracted via alcohol. So when you are looking at hot water extracts from cordyceps sinensis, for example, they are different medicinal compounds from the alcohol-miscible ones. As for taste, I have only tried the hot water extracts (teas). I don’t think they are bitter, but then again, I like the taste of mushrooms. Fungi Perfecti (fungi.com) makes their own kind of medicinal tea and I have had it on several occasions. It is quite good; however, I plan to use my own blend since I am selecting the kinds that are either powerful anti-inflammatories or potent anti-virals.

As to model legislative drafts, I can’t see how the court systems and status quo state law enforcement systems will be able to function to enforce the law during a pandemic. If the worst-case happens, I perceive the feds taking over as far as the law is concerned, even though they will be telling states that their on their own. I can’t perceive a situation where the under-staffed, under-paid and otherwise under-resourced local law enforcement will be able to handle the pandemonium (think Army hospital camps, something along that line). When you read John Barry’s book, the failings of Philadelphia come to mind (would we allow that kind of gross ineptitude today? Probably not.) In the absence of some kind of federal governance, I don’t see how the states would be able to pull it together to enforce the law. I could be wrong. I hope I’m wrong.

17 October 2006

EnoughAlreadyat 21:20

anonymous – at 09:25

I’ve been watching tents on Ebay. Haven’t seen a “kitchen” tent, but have seen some very large army tents. Also, I have been looking at Yurts. There are some do it yourself Yurt kits… but… that is some serious tent making!

KimTat 23:39

There were 5 diffrent homicides this past weekend and the news tonight talked about they didn’t have enough crime scene vans and people to get to all of them and the lab is backed up bigtime. One lady said this was the worst situation of not being able to handle everything in over 25 years of working at the crime lab.

In a pandemic they will really be overwhelmed.

I will work more on security preps. Have gotten door and window alarms that run on batteries but obviously need to do more.

18 October 2006

Green Mom – at 00:29

Crime labs across the nation are notoriously underfunded and understaffed. I can’t watch the CSI type shows because they completely misrepresent these situations. Its not at all glamerous, and these people work in the most appaling conditions. Crime scene/lab techs are trully unsung heros.

deborah – at 01:52

I have spent every day of this month so far canning, dehydrating, and freezing the harvest from my garden, plus various specials from the local grocer. I have about 3 months worth of canned meat alone, packed in pint jars. Then I have a lot frozen too, my freezer is packed to the very top! It sure made me happy when it got that high, let me tell you. I will have to do some more meat canning though after reading Hawn Boy’s post with his recipes for chicken, beef, and pork. Gosh, I almost started drooling just reading the ingredients.

The prices offered at MREdepot are too good to resist, so I will probably be placing an order every week as long as the special rate is honored. I can’t afford to buy a lot every week, so the 2 1/2 month limit will let me stock up on long-term preps which I am deficient in at this time.

On another note, I am taking a trip to SAM’s Club this weekend to get the dog food restocked. We buy a new bag every time we open a bag, so they always have at least a 6 week supply of food. I need more hand sanitizer, and I love the large containers they sell there. I make it a practice to grab at least 1 large prep item for long term stores each time I go, usually focusing on food. Last week it was a HUGE jar of dehydrated onions, and a 3 pound bag of coffee beans. Gotta have my morning cup, even when TSHTF.

And hubby promised me Big Berkey for Christmas…he asked what I wanted and so I told him. ^_^

LauraBat 06:45

DenisC and others r/e propane heaters: About how long does one go and what type of fuel are you using? A 20lb canister? We have a FP and can camp in that room, but in case someone is sick I’d like to have a heat source for another room.

Deborah - lol a Berkey for xmas! Too funny!

KathyinFL: also at Target and other places, Crystal Light makes these “On the Go” packets - single serve flavoring that you can add to a bottle of water. I’ve stockpiled a bunch for the kids so they don’t sick ofplain water all the time. My DH loves them - he has to watch his sugar and would prefer a soda and these have helped him drink more water.

Off to BJ’s today to buy more shelving to re-organize all my preps. I’m sick of trying to find them all over the house. Spent yesterday moving junk all over the basement to make room for it all. What a project - and dh is out of town so there I am trying to move a freezer by myself lol! If TSHTF and things get ugly and I need to hide preps, I’ll just move it all back again.

BTW: in one day alone, two different friends’ had children break a bone! Everytime I hear that (and my own youngest recently did the same thing) it makes me shudder to think of emergencies in pandemic situations!

Dr Dave – at 08:49

LauraB, for a small room, try the Coleman Black Cat. The output is 3,000 BTUs and they can operate for 6 hours on a 1 pound propane cylinder.

Jefiner – at 09:45

Before I moved to sunny Arizona where it never gets cold, I lived in upstate New York—where it was cold all the time! We had a woodstove that would eat eight face cords of oak all winter long, but we supplemented that with a Toyo Kerosene heater, which completely heated the upper floors of the house. These newer heaters are very safe, with tip switches, wide bases, cages around the globe, etc. If I really needed consistent heat I would look into a kerosene heater, as the fuel is easier to store (and hide!) than a huge rick of firewood.

We are now looking into getting a larger water filter—any recommendations out there? What about the Berkefeld?

Thanks in advance.

Dr Dave – at 09:49

Jenifer, the Big Berkey is a high end stainless steel model. For about 2/3 the cost, you can get the same filtration quality (0.2 microns)in the plastic Katadyn Gravidyn.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 09:55

Jefiner – at 09:45 I have the Big Berkey (from my pre-Y2k purchases) and I love it — but Dr Dave is right — the Katadyn plastic didn’t exist when I was buying in 1999 so it’s probably just as easy — the only consideration is that the stainless will NOT pick up odors or get discolored from dirty water where the plastic could if you poured filthy water into it (which you can certainly do if you have to) so you want to have a really BIG funnel that you can line with coffee filters to pour water into to strain out the big impurities before you treat with your filter otherwise the inside of the plastic might pick up odors or stains — it might not — but I wouldn’t risk it. Whichever you get, be sure to order a repair kit for it….the most vunerable part is the spigot, but you need some gaskets or washers or whatever they are to make a new spigot fit properly if something happens to the original.

Dr. Dave, I got your emails with the booklet you wrote on being self-sufficient for 6 months — EXCELLENT JOB — thanks so much - I wrote you back — have a great day!

need more food – at 09:59

I love my Berkey water. I bought the Berkey Light which is plastic with a lid made from material. I really am pleased with the water but I wish I had purchased the Stainless Steel Big Berkey for a few dollars more. Dh still makes fun of my Berkey, he will look at it and laugh and say “You could’ve had a stainless steel one”. Uuggggg.

And by the way I hated the material lid and now use a glass lid from my stock pot.

Also, someone posted here about using two 5 gallon buckets, the Berkey filters and making your own! I wish had seen that first, because that’s what I would have done. Lehmans sells one in their catalog, so you can see a pic of one there.

Jefiner – at 10:12

Thanks for the info! The Gravidyn looks like the good choice (I will prefilter water through several layers of coffee filters).

Off to order from REI . . .

Dr Dave – at 10:19

Jefiner, don’t forget to look at the earlier water filter discussions about other posible pre-treatments for your water before it goes into your Katadyn.

LA Escapee – at 10:25

Petticoat Junction at 22:14, or anybody with high blood pressure:

If you are having trouble stabilizing high blood pressure (or can’t get your meds), cut back on salt intake drastically (no canned goods, no convenience foods, unless no salt added), and drink lots of water. Look at the sodium content of everything, including bottled salsa, drinks, bread -it varies drastically. Keep your intake to 2000 mg of sodium per day or less. Forget V8, most soups, canned chili - it’s out of range. Home canning is best for convenience foods, but you can get a lot of no salt added canned fruits and veggies in the “Great Value” brand at Wal-Mart. Also look at Mexican brands - less salt, and often packaged in the USA to US standards. The label discloses where it’s packaged - often Southern Cal or the Northeast US.

We went through this with my Dad - after three weeks of fresh fruits and vegetables, lots of fiber, no salt added tomatoes and veggies, low sodium cereals, crackers, bread, everything, he cut his blood pressure meds by 2/3 - and he’s very overweight. Good thing to remember when stocking preps for high blood pressure family members.

LauraBat 20:27

Thanks Dave and Jefiner!

20 October 2006

Genoa – at 20:42

KimT, Thanks for the tip about the butane stove. I’d never been to the Sportsman’s Warehouse before (didn’t even know there was one in the area). Since the stove was only $19.99, I felt I could afford to get one---to supplement my propane campstove and my charcoal BBQ---plus a few cans of butane.

I looked for the Excalibur dehydrator, but, unfortunately, they didn’t have any. When I asked about them, the employees clearly had no idea what I was talking about, so they apparently haven’t ever stocked them here. Too bad---I’d like to get a dehydrator, but I’m holding out for a good one and don’t want to pay the high price.

Jane – at 21:15

I looked around local stores but only found 2 styles, no Excalibur, so I ordered online. I found a $40 Nesco American Harvester without a timer at Meynard’s hardware near Chicago. It does have the heater at the top, so juices won’t drip on it, but I’ll have to return it after my Excalibur comes. The Excalibur website points out that the round ones don’t have as much usable space, since there’s a hole through every screen for air circulation. (Yup, I read all about it, so when DH sees the charge next month, I’ll have something to say.) (But he told me to get one with a timer. :) ) (Online there are many sites offering Excalibur, but I didn’t find it cheaper than the company’s site, because they give a few free items too.)

InKyat 21:40

I orderered my Excalibur from the factory web site, too. I like its removable trays. One could use them in a make-shift solar dryer if there’s no electricity.

21 October 2006

Jefiner – at 00:49

check on ebay for excalibur dehydrators—they have refurbs and scratch n dents available at a cheeper price.

diana – at 14:47

I don’t prep because I think it will become a pandemic. I prep because it may, or it could be anything else coming down the pike that we can’t see , which just might overwhelm us. Today got two bags of books. Had them moved to my car by a dolly I commandeered for that job. Learned in the past that overloading and carrying the things in or out of the car leads to bursitis and visits to the physical therapist. So you out there whose ligaments and tendons and muscles aren’t in prime condition ,take it easy.My pandemic library is in the basement. Added all kinds of hunting fishing, cooking, medical, herbal, books. Took a Junior whopper and coffee break between paying full price and bag for $3.The place loaded with toddlers and youngsters. Hope we all make it through. With Dengue and Chik making such inroads I am reading up on these two viruses. I was startled at how close they are to home. Evidently the mosquitoes which can carry it are in Morris county a 5 minute drive from where I live.

no name – at 15:41

diana @ 14:47

I don’t prep because I think it will become a pandemic. I prep because it may, or it could be anything else coming down the pike that we can’t see , which just might overwhelm us.

I agree with you totally…for me prepping is a part of my life…I plan to live prepared for the rest of my life. I like the feeling.

Kathy in FL – at 16:31

Spent this past week refurbishing our “retirement” home. Its really a second home that we can’t afford to move to full time until we retire <grin> so we currently use it as a monthly family getaway type thing … which is fine, but no vacation as the place is always needing something done like mowing, tree care, etc. With five kids to soon put through college, retirement is a heck of a long way off.

But after being unable to take the family there since May when we had a terrible amount of vandalism done to it, it was nice to finally have it back in the kind of shape we can take the kids to. We are back to having all the walls and cabinets in as well as running water.

Found out my mom is saving me all the empty jugs … not milk jugs, the clear plastic stuff … she can and is having her neighbors save them for me as well. Got nine one-gallon water bottles and decided to bring home six and leave three there. Also scored some large empty condiment jugs from a sandwich shop. Cool, as they make great containers for storing rice and pastas. Will be great to keep any trespassing rodents out of the groceries as well.

On the down side, I came home with a laundry list of linens and stuff that I need to replace that were ruined. Ugh. Also found that a lot of the paper goods that I had stored there had gotten ruined by water. Double ugh. Will replace and will be storing them in a different way.

On the up side, the shutters and roll down doors are now finished. Gives me a nice glow-y feeling to throw all those locks and bolts when we leave … even if the place does wind up reminding me of Fort Knox. Security comes at a high price, but after our bitter experience we were willing to pay it … but it still sometimes feels like shutting the barn door after the cows are already loose.

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 17:37

Kathy in Fla - Glad your second home is liveable again, and very glad it’s so secure. Perfect for sip.

22 October 2006

diana – at 14:12

Congratulations on the restoration of your second home. I’m watching a house that is built around another rising. It was nothing much, and I see everything but the foundation and chimney is gone. Now it is evolving into a very expensive home, with solarium, porches, turrets etc. What an opportunity these people have, but I don’t think they are thinking of anything but building a grand house. Still, it is interesting to watch.They have enough acerage to farm it out and get farm rate taxes. They built two barns and for a while sheep were grazing. One of these days I’ll ask a neighbor who keeps track of this sort of thing what is going on. Just think what any of you would do in a situation like this, what a golden opportunity. Sort of Mr Blandings Builds His Dream House.

Kathy in FL – at 18:52

Hindsight is 20–20 and there are certainly some things that I would do differently if I had it to do it again … more storage, larger fireplace, water storage/purification system, solar panels, etc. But overall we are pretty happy.

Petticoat Junction – at 20:25

Kathy, I am so glad you are getting everything put back together!


Purchasing prep stuff is at a standstill here at least until next month’s paycheck. (I literally dug change out of the bottom of my purse and the car yesterday to manage to buy a couple of sale bottles of 59 cent spice at CVS. The gal looked at me like I was a nut, counting out pennies, lol.)

However, there’s still plenty to be done. Organization, copying files, etc - many hours left to put in there. When the site was down this morning I had a brief panic trying to remember which files I’d copied off and which I hadn’t. ;o)

My big prep of the day was of another type. We had been given a telescope, not professional but a step (or two) up from the normal department store variety. Catch was, it was literally in pieces (as in a couple of sandwich bags + box).

I contacted the head of the local astronomy club and we got together this afternoon. He very graciously put all the parts together (only missing a few screws…I’ve always had a few loose, though, lol) and showed me how to set it to our latitude, fine tune the other settings (it’s an equatorial mount) and got us up and running.

I figure if the electricity is out and the kids are stuck in, it might be a very nice diversion indeed. ;o)

23 October 2006

diana – at 13:20

The seniors are getting their flu shots at their monthly meeting. One gentlemen brought in his medals. He was one of the men at D Day in the European theater. Very impressive display of his war medals from the Bronze star; I think a little admiration made him feel rightfully proud. I wonder how many men of the fourth division are still alive and kicking. Now I will go and enjoy the hugh apple pie and other baked goods that the ladies have brought in. A generation, (oldest is in her very spry and beautiful nineties) that we could all emulate, and I hope all reach agewise. Saw “Queen” yesterday, and there Elizabeth 11 stood in a pink old wooly bathrobe clutching a hugh hot water bottle in the chilly hallway of Balmoral Castle. Another lady from the past . generation. Will go redeem a bunch of newspaper coupons off for more and more canned clams and clam juice etc. The second world war is in my mind today between the medals and the film.

deborah – at 15:57

My shipment from MREdepot is due in tomorrow. After it arrives I am getting my flu shot. I have been trying with no success to contact someone with the LDS to ask about local canning facilities. I guess I will have to try a regional number, no one ever answers the phone at the number I am calling. No message machine either, bleah. On the whole, my preps have grown nicely since I started prepping in earnest at the start of this year. I need to focus more on meds I think, since the food and water supply needs have been pretty much taken care of. I know we could use more food supplies, but balance is important, and I have very little in the way of general flu meds. I will always be grateful to everyone here for opening my eyes a year ago.

Bird Guano – at 21:02

Expectorants Fever control meds Rehydration salts

Plus the stuff you would need for first aid if you were shut up with no outside help for a couple of months.

Green Mom – at 23:22

Last week kids and I sat down and drafted a written pandemic plan. Far and away the biggest chore on the list is a thorough cleaning/organization of the house. We need more space for preps, and we need to get rid of clutter to make cleaning/disinfecting easier. The possibility of sharing their rooms with young cousins during a SIP has thrown my two teens into a organizational frenzy. My son is even building a shelving unit!

So this week, we are suspending our homeschooling activites-there will be plenty of time for lessons later, and completely cleaning every inch of our house. As an incentive, we are throwing a big Halloween/Samhain party Saterday night.

24 October 2006

Kathy in FL – at 13:41

Speaking of disinfecting … that will be the first thing on the chore list as soon as we are up about about. I swear I’m beginning to think our 2 year old is some kind of typhoid mary. Every time that boy gets sick he spreads it through the whole house before we can do a thing to stop it. <ugh!>

Today is actually cold here in Tampa … will reach about 71 degrees maybe … and I’d love a chance to open the windows and air the house out. But while we have a few still running low grade fevers, window opening in out.

Oremus – at 13:53

Kathy in FL – at 13:41

It takes a smaller viral load to get him sick. He builds it up to a level to get you sick.

At least he’s cultured. 8^)

Prepping Gal – at 21:37

Now that is a chuckle 71 degrees or to us Canadians that’s a comfortable summer day. We have windows open until it is about (in US terms) 0 degrees. What would your normal indoor temperature be? We have lower our indoor temperature in the day time to 55 to 60 degrees and at night 45 degrees (normally around 70 degrees)so we can start getting use to cooler temperatures and where more socks and sweaters. We use a programmable thermostat.

25 October 2006

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 18:49

OMG I get cold it it’s below 70 degrees. We try to keep our thermostat on 68 degrees (wish we could keep it lower), but our living room ceiling is 17′ high and all the heat goes up, so we keep it a little warmer at 68 and dress warmer as the weather gets cooler. That’s why I love to build fires every night…..love that warmth! I kept a pet heating pad on the couch all the time for my 22 year old kitty with arthritis, but she died in May…it’s still there and I’ve been turning it on and off now for days because my feet get so cold. I like being warm like a cat does.

I went to Big Lots today and bought thick cushy, warm, Dearfoam house slippers to put in our bug out bags for $5 and some cordovory ones for my husband that retailed for $25 and I got ‘em for $6. Also, flannel pj’s for $10 (seemed a little high, but I was there & they were cute) and some thermals (tops and bottoms for hubby) and bottoms for me for $5 each piece.

Love Texas – at 18:55

It is time to rearrange things again, it seems like I spend a lot of time doing that! I have ordered a apple peeler it will come Friday, can’t wait want to do a lot of apples this fall. Going to dry them. I need to get back to my shopping now that I have had my vacation. I need to make a big list----

crfullmoon – at 18:57

Green Mom: “Far and away the biggest chore on the list is a thorough cleaning/organization of the house. We need more space for preps, and we need to get rid of clutter to make cleaning/disinfecting easier.”

Ouch! Big undone chore on my list, too (and, it’s getting late for me to clean and have a Halloween/Samhain party…)

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 18:58

Love Texas, hope you enjoyed your vacation…..I had thought about an apple peeler, wanted to make and freeze some apple pies to bake, but I don’t think I can justify a peeler just for a few pounds of apples — maybe next Fall I can do better!

Love Texas – at 21:55

I can’t remember who was asking about a coffee grinder??? I found one on mainstsupply.com

I am still looking but I think this one could work.

26 October 2006

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 11:49

I’m not sure where to begin….recently one of my precious cats died unexpectedly. He used to sit in my lap when I’d type on my laptop sitting on the coffee table and lean over onto the laptop and rest his head on the built-in mousey thingie and move the mouse around unexpectedly as he tried to get comfortable, or on my hands, causing me to mix up my ‘R’s and my ‘T’s and other letters.

You may have noticed my typing would stink at times and that’s why — his head was resting on my while I typed. He would also love to try to sit on the keyboard, totally NOT allowed, so I used a Priority mail box and made myself a “cubicle” for my laptop! It had a top and sides and a back with a vent cut in the back for air circulation & I had covered it with pages from my favorite calendar so it’s colorful & I never minded it sitting in the family room where we stay most of the time.

I just can’t bring myself to get rid of it and probably won’t ever since it’s useful for holding paperwork on top so that it’s handy without the cats walking on it if it were lying on the tabletop.

Another thing he would do and the others do too, is lay on my chest while I’m watching tv on the couch with the laptop nearby. The light from the screen would cast a glare on the keyboard so I couldn’t see the letters and since I could only reach the keyboard with one hand, I’d sit and peck out messages to you guys with one finger, trying to figure out what letters were what by their location. I know how to type without looking of course, but it’s suddenly different when you’re doing it one-handed.

ANYway, I tried putting a battery-operated LED tap-light in the top of my cubicle but it was visually in the way and it was hard to turn on and off at an angle with just one hand, etc., and it wouldn’t light up the keyboard much to make it easier to see the keys.

Well, the other day I bought a 400 watt battery pack with radio & light and flashlight, etc. from Sam’s — it’s great — and it also has a USB port charger. I thought we had USB things since we have a digital camera, but my husband told me that we don’t. Oh well.

I started searching on ebay to see what we were missing out on by not having anything that needs USB capability and boy did I hit a gold mine! I still don’t have anything that needs charging through a USB port, BUT on ebay I found this cute little set of USB thingies that plug into the back of your computer and I got a set of “toys” that include a LIGHT on that bendable wire cable stuff that you can shape and it stays in place, a FAN on the same shapable cable, and a MASSAGER with a long cord so you can put it behind your back or under your leg or wherever you want a massage and it really works well (I’m glad because I bought my husband a different type light for HIS laptop in case the power goes out and he has to work from home)!! All for around $10 I think it was for my 3 toys.

Trouble is, I only have 2 ports available in the back of the computer since I use a mouse that’s plugged into one port, so now I’m off to find a port hub at Best Buy or WalMart or somewhere. I looked on ebay and found hubs with up to 7 ports. That would mean I could get one of the little sets of Christmas trees with USB connectors for the top of my box/cubicle!! :-) Won’t I be uptown! I’m actually getting a little chilly with this fan on! You can only unplug the light and the fan by unplugging them, but the massager has an on/off button on the back of it.

Lordy, who knew such things existed……all because I bought a 400 watt battery charger/emergency alert thingie at Sam’s for $94.

Pseudorandom – at 12:31

Here’s a note for any dark chocolate lovers who are looking to increase their prep stocks of chocolate -

If you have an outlet mall near you with a Harry & David, swing past sometime. I was there last weekend and they had chocolate bars (75% plain or 72% with nibs) on sale for either 3 for $5 or 12 for $12. These are regular size 3.5 oz. bars. A buck a pop is pretty good for the dark stuff! I am not sure how long the sale lasts, though.

Also, I saw yesterday that Eckerd has 70% Lindt bars (again, 3.5 oz.) on sale for $1.69, not a bad price at all.

Petticoat Junction – at 12:54

Budget prep idea from here:

I got to thinking about maps after looking through my new state atlas and realizing that our USA atlas is almost ten yrs old and probably rather out of date.

So…I got online and looked up the tourism board websites for 8–10 surrounding states and ordered their free tourism packets - each one of which includes a full-size official state map. Took about 15 min total and they should all be here in a couple of weeks (plus the kids will have extra magazines to cut up for crafts).

Or maybe we’ll just plan a little vacation in case this doesn’t pan out. ;o)

diana – at 13:28

Stop and Shop sells the very dark mostly cocoa bars by Lindts for 1.99, but Eckards price is better, about what I used to pay a year or so ago. Will swing down and stock up. I don’t like being around on mischief nite, and not many kids come trick or treating. Getting tricked out as a gypsy, Snowy white Black forest blouse, black velvet lace up vest and a black Austrian ethnic skirt with lots of spangles and ribbons. Is any one else out there nutty about dressing up for Halloween? Used to win prizes as a kid, guess I never will grow up. Kids don’t come round nowadays, so I miss seeing all the costumes. Not worth stocking up candy for trick or treat. If I see kids I give them my shiniest change. (Wash it so its sparkling).

LA Escapee – at 13:42

Anybody have an opinion on what OTC meds for colds & flu actually work, now that they are all re-formulated to stop meth production? It seems they are not as effective as before.

crfullmoon – at 13:55

I’ve never really used those for colds and no one has had influenza that I can recall, the past decade or so, (just some food poisonings, or, 24 hour gastro-intestinal stuff), I just use separate things; one for pain/fever, and maybe an expectorant when I got bronchitis. Lots of fluids, warm herb teas, ect. I used to take extra VitC, like, the EmergencyC mix.

Those OTC cold/flu med combos never seem to be what I want; always some extra component I don’t need…

Colds always seem to last about the same no matter what I do.

crfullmoon – at 13:59

Oh -if I do get cough drops, I check the active ingredient % The menthol % can vary quite a lot; brand and flavor don’t mean much.

(hm; dark chocolate as couch medicine, eh?) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antitussive

Dennis in Colorado – at 14:05

crfullmoon – at 13:55 Colds always seem to last about the same no matter what I do.
Ah, yes; another quote from my favorite physician of years ago. “We can treat that aggressively and cure you in 10 days. If we do nothing, it will take a week and a half.”

countrygirl77 – at 17:10

If anyone needs baby food the wal-marts in our area at least have select Gerber baby foods 4/$100. That is less than half price. One of our stores had them in the center aisle on a pallet with them stacked in shrinkwrapped cases. Good expirations dates of 1–2 years. The other wal-mart I was at just had them on a shelf by the regular baby food. I bought 10 cases of 24 jars. I asked the cashier if anyone else was buying many and she said no. She said she was going to get some to put back because she had a baby that wasn’t eating baby food yet. Maybe other stores have sales that are that cheap but none of the ones I shop at do. I was thrilled to be able to get them at that price and can’t imagine people that are using baby food not snatching them up.

Bird Guano – at 17:26

And the pre-mashed foods are also pretty good for those recovering from the flu.

Not just babies.

Love Texas – at 18:18

LA Escapee- You can still buy thoses meds you just have to go to the phar. and ask and show your drivers L and sign. I use them all the time as it helps my headaches. I have been stocking up a little at a time I don’t want them to think I am into making drugs. Hope this helps!!!!

Green Mom – at 18:46

CRFullmoon-

Couch Medicene?

Carrey in VA – at 18:49

countrygirl77 – at 17:10 If anyone needs baby food the wal-marts in our area at least have select Gerber baby foods 4/$100

Man thats some expensive baby food LOL LOL LOL

Prepping Gal – at 21:50

I read that a Canadian cold/flu product is now going to be marketed in the USA. The name is Cold-FX & it boosts your immune system. You can take one a day to prevent cold/flu (I don’t do that because it isn’t cheap)or take as prescribed for fighting a impending cold/flu or full blown cold/flu. Go to Google and type Cold-FX

I have used it over the past few years and at the first hint of a cold or flu “if” I get it in time and keep taking it for about 10 days I do not get the cold or I get a very weak strain of it. In the past 5 years I’ve had one cold (I didn’t take it soon enough). I got it last at Costco for 180 tablets at $55.00 but since found it at Superstore for $44.00. I am in no way associated with this company. I fought a cold two weeks ago and I won. My husband who didn’t take the pills right away had it for two days and not enough to slow him down. I don’t know of any other product that works as well.

Jane – at 22:27

We had dead wood in our trees trimmed to protect the wires, I bought some waterproof hiking boots, and my Pump’n’seal and-ta-da— the Excalibur dehydrator came! Now I have to get back to dating, shelving, and inventorying my foods, while the frozen brocolli and carrots get dried.

27 October 2006

HillBilly Bill – at 05:15

DW and I brought home two more truckloads of firewood yesterday. Now we just need to get it stacked and under a tarp.

diana – at 15:45

Have been having pleasant interactions with Police. Went into a store at dusk, left lights on for about 10 min. Battery Dead as as dodo. Nice cop helped out. We talked about my town, he had wanted to buy a house there, it has a reputation as a good family town. Certainly not the most charming of the towns around here but notably down to earth and family oriented. Picturebook houses painted in unusual combinations with a backdrop of rolling hills. Today I was scoping out some overloaded pine trees to photograph, and if next to the road to gather cones for the fire. Evidently drifted over the shoulder line a few times. When the young officer heard my checking out the oddities in nature spiel he realized I was one of those wacky enviormentalist types and kindly let me be, since I obviously was neither drinking nor on drugs.. Very polite men. You feel safe with this sort of officer. Tomorrow it will be raining at least an inch an hour, so I think I’ll do an inventory of what I have, and what I lack. I’ve beem dumping bag after bag down and procrastinating..It’s time to check what I have and think things through rationally.Get more water in before it begins to snow.The trees will lose the rest of their color tomorrow. Winter arrives. here by Halloween.

cactus – at 16:05
  Got 60 pounds potatoes sitting on the floor,have to stay there as I`m off to another town to work this weekend. Have celery drying, hope it`s done before I have to leave. If not, guess I`ll just throw it in a ziplock and put into frig, until I get home Mon. am.

 Funny about all those tators. I actually don`t eat them very often. I`ve gotten into the habit of buying just 1 or 2 bakers at a time, and then still have them go bad before I eat them.So, why did I think that I have to have them ? Well, I guess eventually they`ll get eaten. ;-)

 Still wish I could get a woodstove, but don`t think my landlord would be happy with me if I chopped a hole in his roof for stove pipe.Good thing that heat is really not a problem in my desert.
Medical Maven – at 20:55

My local Walmart had vacuum-packed whole pitted dates, 840 calories of sweetness and loads of potassium and fiber for $1.50 each. I don’t know whether that aisle item was a national offering or not. The expiration date went clear out to July 2009.

I thought that was a good price for the shelf life, the amount of calories, and the sweet, nutritious addition to my stores.

De jure – at 22:25

Our local Walmart has hand-crank flashlights for under $8/ piece. I tried them out and they seem to work just fine. I bought a few extra (I figure they’d make good barter items in a bad situation).

Debbie in Ala – at 22:45

Just got back from making a Costco run, and got some great deals on canned meats. They have Roast beef (Kirkland brand) that is cut in chunks in a beef broth that’s really good! I just had to open a can when we got home, and it tastes like homemade roast beef. It’s tender enough that you can shred for use in burritos, sandwiches, etc., or use as is for beef stew or stroganoff. It’s only $1.67 a 12 oz. can (6 pack for 9.99.) I also got canned turkey (12.5 oz)for $1.82/can, chicken (12.5 oz) for $1.63/can, premium wild Alaskan pink Salmon, skinless & boneless for $1.50/6 oz. can, tuna for .52/can and even got some premium sardines packed in soybean oil for $1.16/can. Dr. Woodson recommends all of these in his book for good sources of protein w/o a lot of the bad fats. They also totally shocked me by having cases of MREs w/ heaters for sale. A case of 12 for $56.99 (that’s $4.75 each.) They are the same ones sold by MRE Depot (just ordered a case of them a while back.) The brand is A Pack, distributed by Ameriqual Group in Evansville, Indiana. Each pkg. contains an entree, fruit bar, cheese spread or peanut butter, raisins, cracker, cookie, drink, utensils, towelette, etc.

Debbie in Ala – at 22:49

Sorry about the formatting. I’m new and need to practice.

KimTat 22:57

Welcome Debbie in Ala!

I have been here a while and still need practise. :)

Kathy in FL – at 22:57

Found a possibility for shelf-stable “real” cheese. The local grocers have become setting up little kiosk type things with Hillshire farm and those other cheese & sausage makers that really come out the woodwork at Christmas. Forget all their names.

Anyway, noticed they had some nice blocks of cheese … the two I noticed were “smoky” and “garlic” … with use by dates way out in 2007. I know I could get them used up before then if need be.

28 October 2006

Thordawggy – at 01:01

I thought that we had everything. Then today, our local smaller grocery had Big Chunk chocolates. Remember those? These, however, were giant Big Chunks with 16 chunks of chocolate with the raisins and nuts. I must get some more and vacuum pack them and freeze them. You know, for comfort foods. :-) I also got a few cans of Chunky New England Clam Chowder. One of my favorites because it it thick and rich. I hate thin chowders. I just have to figure out how to store oyster crackers. My Food Saver has a pulse option to just take out as much air as I want but I don’t know how to get it to preserve the crackers just right and not crush them. I also got a couple of large bags of dried fruit and nut combos. Need to vacuum pack most of it in canning jars but I don’t know if it will keep the nuts from turning rancid. Is it the air that makes them rancid over time or do they need to be frozen or refridgerated as long as possible?

deborah – at 04:22

Thordawggy – at 01:01 -snip-I just have to figure out how to store oyster crackers. My Food Saver has a pulse option to just take out as much air as I want but I don’t know how to get it to preserve the crackers just right and not crush them.-snip-

Silly dawggy, use your foodsaver with a jar just like you do your dried fruit and nut combos. Empty the crackers from the box and into whatever size jar seems best for use. (I use 1/2 gallon and quart size for dry storage generally) If you are the only one going to eat the crackers, you might want them in a small pint size. Then use the jar sealer attachment. The crackers only crush if you try to put them in a bag. You can also pulse the foodsaver on the jar after dropping in an oxygen absorber so that you take out just enough air to seal the lid down.

need more food – at 08:25

Speaking of vaccuum sealing jars. I did this last week with some mason jars filled with wheat berries and last night I heard about 3 of them pop off loosing their vacuum. I have had my sealer since they first came out and I have never sealed jars before. I have to say I wasn’t really impressed while sealing because some of the jars just wouldn’t seal.

 Do others have this much trouble or am I doing something wrong?
Kim – at 08:44

Need more food, I’ve experienced the same problem with jars sealed with my FoodSaver losing their seal after a short while. You might consider getting a Pump-N-Seal, a small manually operated device that is MUCH more reliable and easy to use for this purpose.

http://www.fluwikie2.com/pmwiki.php?n=Forum.Pump-N-Seal

diana – at 11:31

Mouse traps, the covered kind at half price. Have to stop and stock up on that and fill up on the bottled teas I have been drinking out of my prep stock. Heavy rains, and overnite the trees have dumped most of the remaining leaves. Roads covered with leaves and slippery. One of the towns has a steeplechase race that raises money for the local hospital, sorry for anyone who braves the mess .Lakes and slippery mud and muck. The fields where just reseeded. Reminder to go out and buy some Wellington boots. The police and auxilary police are out in full force, they’ll be a lot of stuck Suv’s limos and cars, and the usual excited and inebriated crowd of young men. Gale force winds expected. What a god awful mess its going to be. Very exhilerating, a little danger, and tow trucks to pull you out of the muck and mire. Must go and buy the mouse traps.I’ll talk to one of the committee mens mothers and find out all the gory details of the steeplechase tomorrow. I gave away my Wellies to a avid gardener, am very sorry now. It’s a day for chunky clam chowder and oyster crackers, will stock up on those too.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 14:40

OK!!!!!

We just had MRE’s for lunch! THEY ARE GREAT!! My ONLY 2 suggestions for convenience is that you put a pair of scissors or a knife with your stash of MRE’s. If you have wet hands (raining) or a bad cut or a broken finger or arthritis, it’s harder to open the inner packages — not impossible, especially if you use your teeth, but it would just be sooooo simple with scissors, and that keeps you from breaking your pop tart or crackers, etc. And 2, that you put napkins with your meals— you might need to wipe your fingers or mouth or catch crumbs!!

There is enough in the kit to stretch the whole day if you’re not just doing back-breaking work all day long - a breakfast tart, a couple of snack things and a main course.

If you’re unsure about how these kits work, you get a plastic bag that you tear the top off of and you open a box, take out the main meal and slip it into the top of the plastic bag. Then you open a salt water pouch and pour the salted water into the plastic bag, fold the top over then tuck the bag, folded end first, into the box, close the box and let it sit for 12 minutes.

Meanwhile, I opened the other little packets — my kit came with raisins, crackers, peanut butter, a strawberry poptart type thing, pepper, a packet of red fruit powdered drink in a small packet but big enough to flavor a 20 oz glass of water nicely, and an oatmeal cookie. And a moist towelette. (No napkin)

My husband ate the Chicken Noodle kit and he everything I did except he got a spreadable cheese packet (so I gave him my peanut butter and I ate his cheese) and a shortbread cookie instead of oatmeal. 1180 calories total.

I had the Spaghetti with meat and sauce. It was heated thoroughly, tasted GREAT — was seasoned well so that it had some ‘spice’ to it — not bland kid’s meal sauce. Large amount of food, covered my salad/dessert-sized china plate (smaller than a dinner plate). One of my cats licked my plate after I was done — he’s finicky so that was a good sign too! 1310 calories total.

My husband’s Chicken Noodle looked like a chicken pot pie with out the pie dough. He said it tasted GREAT! Was unsalted, but very flavorful and he had a pepper packet but didn’t use it — said it wasn’t needed. He’s full now.

I’m forcing my 3–1/2″ wide (guessing) oatmeal cookie down and washing it down with the last of my red fruit drink, because I’m already full!!!

This is definitely a package/kit that can be spread out over the course of a day or at least a half day.

These came from MREdepot using the word fluwikie as the promotional code! Buy with confidence — I’m gettin’ some more!

29 October 2006

stilearning – at 00:54

Yes, the MREdepot.com site is for real. Steve is giving a 21% discount on any and every item in his inventory to those who use the word fluwkie in the promotional code. I have received a couple of orders and will order more stuff.

Medical Maven – at 10:12

diana’s post above was another good reminder to have a good set of boots, wellington or not. You should have Gore-Tex waterproof and Thinsulate insulated boots. They are pricey, but you get what you pay for. Might be a great Christmas present for someone you love. And don’t forget the work gloves, several sets.

We could enter a very labor-intensive outdoor sort of existence in all kinds of weather. You will be more on the same survival level as the rest of the predators and grazers and nest-builders on this planet. If you lose the functional use of your limbs, you are toast or a burden to your survival pod.

Our ancestors would have killed for the durability and qualities of boots today.

bird-dog – at 10:37

Must-haves, for me at least, have been a pair of short, light snowshoes and a pair of ice cleats.

There have been many times when I couldn’t have left my house due to deep snow or ice without these and if town resources are stopped or if one doesn’t want to chance a fall or accident while shovelling, these would certainly give one more freedom and safety. My dog appreciated the snow-shoes too as they made a nice path for her into the woods.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 12:08

Got this in an email from Amazon.com:

Stock up and save at Amazon Grocery, a store filled with stuff you need and stuff you love, everyday staples, and fun new snacks. For a limited time, we’re offering a $10 instant rebate when you spend $49 or more on any combination of items offered in Amazon Grocery, including food and household items.

Use code— GROCERY3 —when you check out. This offer is valid through November 30, 2006, and there is no limit to the number of times you can use it.

Plus, all products offered in Amazon Grocery are eligible for Amazon Prime and FREE Super Saver Shipping.

Bird Guano – at 12:20

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 14:40

OK!!!!!

We just had MRE’s for lunch! THEY ARE GREAT!! My ONLY 2 suggestions for convenience is that you put a pair of scissors or a knife with your stash of MRE’s. If you have wet hands (raining) or a bad cut or a broken finger or arthritis, it’s harder to open the inner packages — not impossible, especially if you use your teeth, but it would just be sooooo simple with scissors


I tape one of those free letter openers you get at trade shows to the inside of each MRE case.

I have bags of them.

Zips MRE’s right open, and no chance of getting cut, because the razor blade is concealed in the plastic.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 13:30

That’s a GREAT suggestion! I had a couple of those around at one time……

pogge - close and continue – at 13:35

Closed for length. You can continue in Flu Prep XXV.

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.FluPrepXXIV
Page last modified on October 29, 2006, at 01:35 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Post Pandemic Real Estate Ownership

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Post Pandemic Real Estate Ownership

28 October 2006

Jumping Jack Flash – at 23:05

I’ve seriously considered selling my current “dream” home that has a mortgage because the equity is enough to buy a smaller home for cash. But my reasoning has led me to believe that I won’t get thrown out of my house during a pandemic. The Sherriff will have bigger fish to fry (if he’s alive) than to serve papers on me.

Further, houses after the pandemic will be at best worth however many percent of the population survives. If 5% of population lives the house will be worth 5% of what is was worth pre pandemic (if it has any value at all).

I sometimes wonder if anyone will “own” any real estate, or if it will revert back to squaters rights. Very difficult to envision how it might play out.

I think if 5% of the population survives (that’s being optimistic), the survivors will somehow make their way to areas of the country with ample hydro power resources and restart civilzation. Cities with no hydro resources will simply be completely abandoned. Say, for example, NYC is completely abandoned. Eventually, 50 or 100 years from now, it will be reinhabited. Who will own what? Squatters rights?

Blue Ridge Mountain Mom – at 23:14

If there is a high CFR rate, I can see the tax credit now. Have a child, get a house.

Thom – at 23:38

Blue Ridge Mountain Mom - That sounds good for young people having kids but what about us older (more mature) folks? Do you think that plan would also cover adoption?

Blue Ridge Mountain Mom – at 23:46

I’m quite sure that adopting orphans would fall in with that tax credit. Of course, that is supposing that the politicians have more sense then than they do now. What are the odds of all of the stupid politicians being taken out by the bird flu? Are we really that lucky?

Medical Maven – at 23:48

The message will be from any central authority—Stay where you are, produce something, anything of value, and we will sort it all out later, much, much later.

It will be the longest “bank holiday” the world has ever seen (except maybe when the Roman Empire crumbled).

29 October 2006

Texas Rose – at 01:39

If we don’t have to worry about the banks, I doubt we’ll have to worry about other creditors either. Let’s face it, when you’re struggling to survive, you really aren’t going to be obsessed with your credit rating.

prepmaniac – at 06:12

Way more than 5% will survive. (IMHO) Even if 50% of the human race is wiped out, we will still have plenty of people. I must admit…While sitting in traffic on a major interstate (with nothing else to do) I imagined that every second car that I could see for miles in both directions simply vanished. From where I was sitting, I didn’t think it would have made much difference. There were still way to many cars. So then I imagined if every household in my community lost a member…then if every other house lost 1 out of three members….then if all of the schools lost 50% of the children…you know there are still plenty of people left. Remember, we had this happen before. Not very long ago. I know people who were there. Thinking about all this now before it happens is a lot more frightening than actually being in the reality of it it seems. I think imaginations can intensify reality and blow it out of proportion. The two people that I know that have first hand experience with this horror say it was a terrible experience, but it was not as bad as our imaginations can make it. People got sick.. sickness like they have never experienced before or since. People died. Whole families in one home. Sometimes just the parents. That left children for the neighbors to care for. But, in these two families, not one member get sick. And of the people who got sick, not very many died. Most recovered fully. They know, because it was their family members that worked hard caring for the sick. They say then the ones that recovered would then take care of the sick and the children of the sick. Remember back then they did not have disposable diapers, elctric washers and dryers, microwaves, ect…taking care of a sick family with children was a huge job. But they did it. I think it is amazing what a human can suffer and get through, when they have too. When I say How did you manage that without going to peices. They bot say, we had to. There was to much to do to feel sorry or worry. It had to be done. People were not lazy. They had to be strong and work hard to make it. People helped each other in those days. They say a lot more people would have died if they were afraid to help each other. But when one family would recover with a neihbors help, they would help the next survive. They never thought they could avoid the sickness by not helping their neighbors. They knew that some would get sick and some would not, no matter what. They just worked hard to help as many of the sick survive as they could. I think enough people will survive that real estate ownership will not be a big issue.

tjclaw1 – at 07:29

The laws and records of real estate ownership go back to the beginning of our country and that won’t change. I used to perform title searches on real estate for conveyances, sometimes back to the time the government deeded the property to the original owners. What happens to the real estate depends on how you have it titled or willed. If you don’t pay your taxes, somebody else will and they may end up owning the property, after paying any outstanding mortgage. Those who default on their mortgage will eventually be foreclosed on and the bank will own the property, then they will sell it.

Don’t count on “squatter’s rights” or acquiring property by “adverse possession” http://tinyurl.com/y4gp6c, in my state it takes 21 years. oh, and you can never acquire title to land by adverse possession against the government.

Don’t count on being able to stay in your home if you default on the mortgage or don’t pay your taxes. It may take time for them to get around to foreclosing, but by then you’ll be in so deep, you’ll never get out and risk losing any equity you have. Will the government step in to prevent it? I don’t know, but I certainly wouldn’t count on it. Don’t forget, over history, mortgage lenders have been seen as predators.

I do have a mortgage on my house and have substantial equity, but know that I could lose it all. We do have substantial life insurance if one of us doesn’t make it through this, which would cover the mortgage, and also have retirement savings/pension we could use (if it’s still there). This is a substantial concern for me, with two young children.

crfullmoon – at 07:50

(life insurance that would be honored during a pandemic?? wow!)

I do think these, “What about rents and taxes and mortgages?” conversations need to be happening publically now.

Not during or after pandemic. (Politicians aren’t hearing from enough people with “pandemic influenza year” on their radars.)

Poppy – at 07:57

tjclaw1 - Thanks for being the voice of reason and pointing out the facts on this issue that keeps coming up. While some may like the idea of aquatters rights allowing them to suddenly own a palace…it just ain’t gonna happen folks. People will have either protected their property so that their legal heirs who survive them will receive it or it’s ownership will revert back to the mortgage lender. Both parties, once they have the documentation proving legal ownership, will have any squatters removed from the property, by the police if necessary.

Those who own peoperty or are purchasing property should do whatever they can to protect it so that their heirs receive it and not some lending company. Now is the time to look over their paperwork and insurance to review what protections are in place for those heirs.

Jumping Jack Flash - Dream homes are great but I am all for owning one’s home outright whenever possible. Look at what you currently owe and how it is financed. Is there a way you can increase your payments or utilize other investments to pay your home off early? How important is this “dream” home to you? Could you find a home you could purchase outright and actually enjoy living in for the emount of equity in your dream home or would it just be a house to you? How long will it take to sell this dream home and purchase another house? After all the housing market has slowed considerably lately. Is it feasable to even try to sell your current home at this time?

Poppy – at 08:01

Opps! aquatters should be squatters

HennyPennyat 09:55

One of my family members works for largest mobile home financer in US, they gave everyone involved in Katrina “time off” from payments in order for owners to get back on their feet. I imagine most mortgage companies will do something along these lines during pandemic. BIG warning, don’t get behind on your payments prior to pandemic. Mortgage companies are always willing to help you if you have been a regular payer (a payment every month, not late with payment etc.). People who lose their homes to foreclosure usually are at least 3 months behind, have not tried to make any payments and are usually those that are slow to pay amyway, this really “ticks off” the mortgage company. Best advice, try to make some sort of payment, provided we have mail service (no mail service, how can we make payments,) mortgage companies will have to take that into consideration too. These companies will be more than glad to find someone alive in one of their mortgaged homes, they will try their best to get us back on track.

preppiechick – at 11:26

I’m glad that someone has brought this up. It is one of my biggest dilemmas, water being number one. I am a broker (not very active, though) and the question is not any easier. We debate selling and moving far out, with out any mortgage, or downsizing to a smaller place nearby, with a smaller mortgage. Out of town property, to us, means no work, no support system, take my kids from their friends and really good school…what if it is 3–5 years before it happens? Not a good choice. Downsizing would keep the kids near their friends and school, and still have work for us, and our support system of friends and family, but .25 acre vs. 1 acre(now), but would still have to have a mortgage, and too close to too many people IF there are marauding crowds. Not necessarily the best choice, either. No easy answers…too many variables.

As far as who owns what, even if the cfr is 50%, that just takes us back to population levels 50 years ago, plenty of people.

US census

Knowing banks, there might be a temporary respite from the government, but i would bet the banks already have systems in place to lay claim to the property. I’m not holding my breath that I will own anything. Another problem would be even if you do own your property outright, and no one harms you or your property, who will pay for the devastion after. So many places already have property taxes that are unbearable, especially for seniors and those on limited incomes, and then factor this in. They will have to raise taxes somewhere…would you be able to afford it(and would you even have any money…collapse of the dollar, money disappeared from banks, 401k gone,etc). Pretty depressing trying to work thru any contingencies. I’m just taking one day at a time, but I know I have to start working thru some of this soon.

Northstar – at 12:23

tjclaw1, I couldn’t agree more. Far from some agrarian freeland developing, I think we can just look to recent history to see what happens after social turmoil. There are always crafty people who move in and make sure property ends up in the hands of them and theirs. I am not such a student of American history but I believe after the Civil War, the farms of displaced people — sometimes farms that had been in the family for generations — were purchased for dollars’ worth of back taxes and posessed by connected members of the local “governments”. And more recently, in Romania IIRC after the collapse of the Soviet Union, oligarchs snapped up enormous national assets: oil companies, mines, machine production for mere millions rather than the billions they were worth. Now aging middle-managers pull plows with ropes on the tiny plots of land they lease. Millions were supposed to have starved.

That’s what happens to the little people, folks.

tjclaw1 – at 12:57

First step should be to review your mortgage terms. Yes, mortgage lenders are more likely to work with you if you are not already behind and make a “good faith” effort to pay. Maybe the government will step in, but don’t count on it. We refinanced our mortgage a few years ago, make higher payments than required, and although we have only lived here 7 years, we’ve got our mortgage down from 30 years to 70 years. Checked my lender’s web site and looks like they’ll really try to work with you if you are experiencing a temporary hardship. Also checked on number of properties they own and in my state it is 58 - I assume foreclosed homes.

Don’t forget, you may be able to file for bankruptcy post-pandemic and possibly be able to save your home plus some of the equity. Here are a couple of scenarios:

You were not able to work during pandemic and post-pandemic you have a job but is is much lower salary so you can’t afford to pay all of your pre-pandemic credit cards, mounting medical bills, plus mortgage. You may be able to have unsecured debt discharged in bankruptcy (Chapter 7) ( but not student loans), reaffirm your car debt, and refinance your mortgage. Depending on how much equity you have post-pandemic, you may be required to pay some of the unsecured debt.

Secend scenario, you have too much equity in your house and would have to sell it to pay all creditors, you may be able to file a Chapter 13 to work out payment plans with your creditors and prevent foreclosure.

Bottom line is I would do my best to avoid being in this position, but if you’re not in a position to move or pay off your mortgage, if you get in trouble 1) immediately contact your mortgage lender to work something out; 2) if that doesn’t work, immediately contact an attorney before foreclosure begins. Third, take a deep breath, there are options and people who are aware of their rights and options will likely keep their homes. Here’s some info on bankruptcy law:

http://tinyurl.com/yl4r29 Hopefully this will help you sleep at night.

When I was in private practice, the majority of Chapter 7 bankruptcies I handled were people who had some major medical problem with no insurance, got divorced, or had bills mount up while unemployed - through no fault of their own. It does happen. Once they were employed and had insurance, it was time to file bankruptcy because they would never in a million years be able to pay all the debt. Most people kept their houses and cars and re-established their credit. Now I haven’t done any bankruptcy work since the new laws became effective, but from what I understand, it hasn’t stopped people from getting relief in bankruptcy.

Oh, and I’d recommend you keep some cash on hand as no bankruptcy lawyer I know will even start a bankruptcy proceeding without being paid first.

tjclaw1 – at 12:58

Oops, that should have read down from 30 years to 17 years….time for more coffee!

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / IMPORTANT Post Your Views for the IOM Review of Pandemic Mitigation Strategies

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: IMPORTANT Post Your Views for the IOM Review of Pandemic Mitigation Strategies

16 October 2006

anon_22 – at 19:16

If you have opinions and ideas about pandemic mitigation that you think TPTB should consider, now is the time to act.

I am opening this new thread to gather your views, for this specific purpose. Please read the links carefully and post here. As of this moment, I’m making plans to go. I will do my best to represent the most important points made here, subject to my own interpretation and opinion, of course. Even if I don’t go, you bet someone is reading what you are writing, so now’s the time to go for it.

Since everybody who is anybody working on this is absolutely maxed out in their time commitments, it would help if posts are well thought out, concise, and constructive. We have a whole week, so take your time. Sit down with a notebook, make a pot of coffee, write, think, re-write. When you’re satisfied you’ve said what you want to say to TPTB, post. Then check back to see if I have a question for you.

I will read and consider everything. I promise. Even if I won’t act on everything.

If you are not sure about something and want some discussion, start a different thread for discussion, to save my time and my sanity. When you’ve gotten as clear as you can in your mind, which may still not be perfect, just post anyway.

Good Luck!


The Institute of Medicine (IOM) is conducting an expedited review of the role of community-based mitigation strategies during an influenza pandemic. A workshop on this topic will be held on Wednesday, October 25 & Thursday, October 26, 2006 and will be open to the public. The meeting will be held at the PAHO Building, Room A, 525 23rd Street, NW, Washington, DC 20037. This workshop is part of the information gathering process of the IOM committee reviewing this issue.

The committee will prepare a report based primarily on information from the workshop that will include conclusions and recommendations, based upon available evidence, regarding:

Read their statement of task

The policies to be considered are those to be used in the United States. The workshop will be open to the public and attendance will be sought broadly. The workshop format will allow for dialogue among workshop presenters, the committee, and the audience.

DemFromCTat 19:52

My short list of things the Feds should be more open about reporting/discussing:

DemFromCTat 20:04

bump

INFOMASS – at 20:05

How about Tom DVM’s points about stockpiling regular antibiotics and IV/rehyration fluids to contain secondary infections and complications? (Could some of these be purchased and held legally by individuals who had gone through a training course?) Or developing a remote diagnosis protocol (over the telephone?) so that scarce skills could be stretched? Or delivering packs of food to homes that have run out, assuming that there were stores of food and people willing to drop them off? I think the best way to avoid panic and violence is to have SOME way to help the sick and hungry, and to develop systems so that social distancing w/o social breakdown is feasible.

Anon_451 – at 20:10

To Dems List I would like to add:

        Responsibility of the FEDS to insure that the Power Grid stays up to reduce secondary illness, and possible death.
        Responsibility of the FED to insure the proper delivery of potable water to homes to protect against secondary illness, and possible death and to assist in the home health care by average citizens.
        Development of Flu baggies (brown paper bags of medications) that could be used by the average citizen to reduce the effects of the flu for the more minor cases, reserving critical medical personnel for only the most critical.
        More active involvement of NGO’s in planning and education NOW before the flu hits not “when it happens”.
2beans – at 20:29

Neighborhood centers, areas of 10–15 square blocks or self-identified neighborhoods. The centers could serve as a pre-positioned cache of food, water, Anon 451′s Flu baggies, as well as reliable communication devices, to be kept staffed and guarded in the event of an outbreak. In this way, you could provide basic services for those without them and have at least minimum force already there in case of civil disorder and which would also serve as a deterrent.

lugon – at 20:32
Anon_451 – at 20:36

Anon_451 – at 20:10 Sorry that did not format right:

Responsibility of the FEDS to insure that the Power Grid stays up to reduce secondary illness, and possible death:

Responsibility of the FED to insure the proper delivery of potable water to homes to protect against secondary illness, and possible death and to assist in the home health care by average citizens:

Development of Flu baggies (brown paper bags of medications) that could be used by the average citizen to reduce the effects of the flu for the more minor cases, reserving critical medical personnel for only the most critical:

More active involvement of NGO’s in planning and education NOW before the flu hits not “when it happens”.

2beans – at 21:29

The neighborhood centers could be fabricated at a remote area in a POD configuration, self-contained and ready to be delivered and staffed as needed. If freight can be containerized, why not essential goods?

LauraBat 21:41

Early school closures, cancelled public gatherings, etc. See CDC graphs comparing St. Louis, where teh mayor did such things, and Philadelphia where they didn’t know how bad it was until it was too late. Social distancing saves lives.

JV – at 22:02

The one thing above all else that will help with mitigating a pandemic is:

1. INFORMING THE PUBLIC that a dire pandemic may happen at any time, and prepping for 8 weeks is necessary.

2. THEN, with that knowledge, the public can prep as best they can. Many people may buy extra for neighbors. Communities can start to network to provide for this disaster. Trust will be built up between the government and the people.

3. THEN, when a pandemic hits, chaos will not HAVE be the order of the day. There will not be as much of a need for food and water distribution from the government. Many more communities will be self-sufficient. Many people will have somehow figured out what to do re stockpiling many other items. People will have been planning how to help each other in emergencies. People will be able to SIP at a moment’s notice without running around creating chaos. How can you possibly SIP if suddenly you are told that a pandemic flu will be in your area in three days? Thousands will not have to die from social disruption or lack of food, water, and heat. A national emergency can create exponential havoc just simply on the basis of being unexpected!

If the government decides to hide the truth of how bad this pandemic could be, the citizens will find out eventually, and then there will be no trust. This happened in 1918. The government must come forward and carefully explain the situation, and the need to prepare. Otherwise, a Katrina situation, simply because of lack of knowledge and therefore lack of preparation, may easily develop. This does not have to happen. Thousands of lives can be saved simply by the proper information given out in a timly fashion…NOW.

Knowledge is power. Together they will shape our future.

The government dispensing accurate information NOW is the best way to mitigate deaths from a pandemic.

Jane – at 22:49

JV, that’s a wonderful expression of the first priority. Pessimism or fear regarding big cities may be silencing TPTB right now, but that’s cowardly and will take us all down the tubes. Without a clear message to urge action in every sphere of citizens’ lives (home, job, school, neighborhood), most of our people will be unprepared.

KimTat 23:09

More media involvement. Do the reverse of what was done in 1918. Patriotic duty to protect and prepare its citizens to be self reliant and not get caught with our pants down. Matter of national security spin.

Every major paper, news site should have a dedicated URL link on their web site. A column in printed media with link to the URL. My newspaper had sections of the paper for different parts of the city, this could be used to identify locations of emergency pick up of supplies, where to go for medical care, medicines…

Already established neighborhood organizations, watch groups begin with planning on what to do at the local level. Smaller local groups should be approached now to begin planning for security, drop off points, drive-walk up soup kitchens at churches, community centers.

How much of the money that was given to states for pandemic preparedness was used for Tamiflu stockpiles? Do the states still have money? Stockpile of food and water and heat/cooking source-rations created now in each community seems a better use since stockpiles of Tamiflu seem iffy at best depending on possible resistance, a bigger percentage of the population will never see them but will need basics.

If there is a quarantine,school and business closures… can payments of bills be deferred without fear of eviction, utilities being shut off. (if the grid stays up) How about withdrawal of retirements accounts, 401k…penalties be forgiven in case of national security so bills can be paid by some or a combination of financial strategies. Volunteers receive credits vouchers for hours worked to be used for current or future necessities?

17 October 2006

Fiddlerdave – at 00:51

As a minimum, the national electrical power delivery system should be immediately nationalised and revamped on an EMERGENCY basis for crisis-handling capabilities, much like Air traffic control systems or missile defense. Normally, Power generation by public and private utilities can utilize the national grid on a peer to peer basis (Generator A sells to Customer B and simply utilizes this grid to ship the power)or sell to the centralised market as is done now, but the core function of this grid is critical to our national interest and must be maintained in a way to sustain its operation under all conditions possible, for both equipment and personnel. Large centralization of populations in cities make this critical, and essential for saving millions of lives for even relatively short term failures.

Prepare a plan for handling the fast collapse of for-profit hospitals (and financially support non-profit hospitals) when our health-payment system collapses. Insurance companies have no way to handle a much greater than average illness rate, and payment levels to these entities will tremendously reduce as the health insurance fails to pay. For-profit hospitals should be returned to non-profit status as they are abandoned, then subsidized. Governments should pay for the hospitals to stockpile a larger-than-needed supplies of essentials, especially overseas manufactured supplies (almost everything), and operate a central reserve of 3 months minimum (like National Petroleum Reserve). This should be a year, which still would not be enough time to rebuild our own industries to do this if pandemic or war.

heddiecalifornia – at 02:55

More information needs to be put out to the public at large on useful efforts to clean, sanitize, and decontaminate areas where flu might be spread.

  Use of detergent, water, soaps, sanitizers, solutions, salt, vinegar and other methods of removal.  Best practices for maintaining public and private facilities.
  So far, there is little information out on the actual life of avian flu virus on various types of surfaces, whether it is easily killed with sunlight or ultraviolet light, what temperatures are sufficient to remove it from clothing, mail, shoes, and so on. Use of masks.   Just how is it spread? in the air, droplets, humidity, temperatures. 
   What kind of air filters (ozonation, ultraviolet, filtration) are sufficient to remove it.  
fredness – at 03:04

Excellent points made by all.

I have long hoped for newspapers to include a link to pandemicflu.gov above the fold, every day (not just a special section on preparedness once every six months). Post it on city buses. We know it is coming and we need some classes to become educated. Isn’t this message more important than 99% of the things broadcast on television? There is a good amount of information on the US gov’t site but I never see them promote it. We have a great deal of knowledge but little utilization.

Alfred Crosby wrote in his book “America’s Forgotten Pandemic” p. 49 “The organ of the public government primarily responsible for maintaining the levees againt infectious disease was the United States Public Health Service, but it wasn’t ready for danger of this magnitude…it was called upon to to a job which had been created in theory, but for which it had never been prepared in reality. The lack of solid information was an immediate problem. First, the USPHS had to have the latest news about the progress of the pandemic in order to make the most efficient distribution of its forces…Second, the fullest information about influenza and the pandemic had to be broadcast around the country because neither physician nor laymen knew more than a few scary rumors Spanish influenza, providing a perfect climate for confusion, panic, and proliferation of quack remedies. Posters were printed and sent out all over the country by means of the Red Cross, the Federal Railroad Administration, and the Post Office Department. Six million copies of the pamphlet, … a full explaination for the medical community and authorities in general were printed and sent out under the Surgeon General’s name… The most difficult problem was organization, not publicity. Public health departments and bureaus existed nearly everywhere in the country in some form or other but never had been organized for a unified effort… And, such is the inertia of society, the war and matters associated with it continued to occupy center stage.”

We have greater means of publicity today but where is the organization? How far have we come in 90 years?

lugon – at 05:34

not talking to each other but in anon_22′s direction

We have greater means of publicity today but where is the organization? How far have we come in 90 years?

I think it’s “self-organisation” that matters. Not all fish in the pond have the same size, of course. I think Feds are to:

It looks like one of us will be creating a wiki page to help anon_22 digest all this input, no? :-)

Mari – at 05:57

Provide incentives to encourage more self-sufficiency. Examples: discounted seeds and materials for building raised beds to encourage growing food locally, discounts on water barrels for rainwater harvesting, subsidized courses on home health care.

Develop scenarios that could be used by local governments to impose phased restrictions on the use of potable water for non-drinking purposes; e.g., when to forbid landscape watering. Technology for real-time measurement of water usage rather than manually reading a meter every few months (necessary to go beyond the honor system for water conservation).

Develop ideas for how to even out power/gas consumption during the day, given the local industrial/farming/residential mix. What are recommended priorities for different types of facilities in getting power/gas? If the power/gas is off for an extended period of time and comes back on on a limited basis, what is the priority order for starting up facilities and neighborhoods? The community and the power/gas company would need to work together to figure these out.

lugon – at 06:51

This outline summary may serve as a “memory aid” in looking at this complex situation in “sectors” (think the face of a clock).

The more graphically oriented among us may want to use mind maps and even do them cooperatively with neighbours. Central question provided by anon_22 above: community-based mitigation strategies.

Branch out. Harvest what’s important and bring it here.

Watching in Texas – at 07:57

1. Early school closings are going to be key in minimizing the death rate in children.

2. Make plans to try and keep the grid up, and start talking conservation now, not later.

3. Communicate to the public now that the threat is real and that 3 days of supplies will not be enough. Do this until people actually understand this - we’re not talking about one small article hidden in the back of the newspaper.

Dennis in Colorado – at 08:56

Fiddlerdave – at 00:51 As a minimum, the national electrical power delivery system should be immediately nationalised and revamped on an EMERGENCY basis for crisis-handling capabilities

That is a fine Socialist plan but
1. The 10th amendment to the Constitution prohibits it, and
2. There is no federal agency capable of doing it, even if it was constitutional (surely no one would suggest turning over the grid to FEMA…).

JR – at 09:25

1. Federal, State and Local authorities should sync up on their recommendations for how many days of supplies people need to arrange for themselves. I’ve heard 3 days, 2 weeks, 1 month, 3 months, etc., all from credible authorities, and it’s very confusing.

2. For those who can’t afford to prep, allow a one-time-only opportunity to make a penalty-free withdrawal from their medical savings account, 401K, or similar savings instrument to purchase supplies. If abuse of this opportunity is of concern, perhaps a fixed amount per person in each household could be set, and receipts for supply purchases could be required.

3. For those below a certain income level, allow a one-time-only opportunity to apply for food stamps equivalent to the amount needed to prepare for each person in their household.

4. Even though it can’t be said for certain that a pandemic will happen at all, give a date certain for when people should be prepared with x-weeks of supplies. Otherwise, many (and perhaps most) will procrastinate.

5. Use public access cable channels to educate people about BF and how to prepare for it.

6. This won’t be possible in every community, but where it is feasible, designate a standalone BF medical center. A place of last resort only for those with critical flu symptoms. Figure out in advance how to consolidate other critical care patients in another location. All other patients should be directed to separate facilities (possibly of a makeshift nature inside of schools if necessary) that should be prepositioned, prestocked and ready to go at a moment’s notice.

7. If phones are working, set up a hotline for people seeking information. This could be manned on a volunteer basis, from home, by those in the community with expertise on BF-related topics (i.e. people like us). There will be millions of questions, which if left unanswered (such as how to treat water, for example) could result in unnecessary suffering, or worse.

barn owl – at 09:41

H5N1 in humans leads frequently results in immediate secondary bacterial pneumonia. Doesn’t the secondary pneumonia cause a lot of the complications requiring hospitalization

If you can hold off the secondary pneumonia, then hospitals may not be so overwhelmed.

Should pneumonia vaccination be encouraged before this goes pandemic?

crfullmoon – at 09:59

Best mitigation strategy would be to get out to the public now, on TV, on local government letterhead, busses and subways, ect, all those old memos such as;

The WHO’s Ten things they thought you needed to know about pandemic influenza back in Oct, 2005 (add note explaining the Jan. 2006 rapid response policy update; they now respond to threats without raising the alert level first)

The 3 flu terms from pandemicflu.gov: Seasonal, Avian, and Pandemic, but, add note that though currently there is no pandemic flu it could break out at any time and impact everyone for months at a time, so the time to prepare is now. (Wish former presidents HW Bush and Clinton could do this one as a PSA.) (Maybe with Oprah; to make a trio more age groups would recognize.)

The state Pandemic Influenza Summits did not get on the public nor local politicians’ radars enough when they occurred. Can they be rebroadcast on tv as a public service?

(Stop worrying about what this will do to elections and political careers; we need an informed, prepared populace. Homeland security begins at home with an educated, healthy, functioning people; better suited for hard times and recovery.)

Mitigate the death tolls by being honest now. More of the public can handle the truth than you think. There are things communities can do now that would make a pandemic influenza year less horrible, (even if some think “nothing will help, so” let the public get blindsided). (The public/municipalities would also be better prepared for smaller disasters or economic uncertainties they do not prepare for now.)

The historical record seems to show mass fatality management becomes a logistical and psychological problem. It looks like we are less set up to deal with this than our ancestors. (Especially when the power grid and fuel delivery is impacted.)

If the public gets the information about a possible deadly pandemic, with possible double-digit mortality rates and collateral deaths, they will then understand why they need to prepare their homes and communities, and, see the real need to make better plans for handling all the steps when people die and need id, legally pronounced and death certificates made, next-of-kin involved in burial in ways that let them see the person is dead but do not involve disease risk from mingling mourners.

(The community’s mental health professionals and faith community leaders are not currently ready, and would themselves be severely impacted during a pandemic, but they are, on paper, needed resources.)

Current plans are better suited to small local disasters; don’t plan to stockpile bodies in ice rinks and refrig. trucks and have minimal staff process them all somehow. (Then, expect DMORT teams to be able to help everywhere at once; they can’t.) Deputize on the local level many more who will be qualified to handle all the legalities locally, in the field.

Please go re-read lugon – at 20:32 and JV – at 22:02 and fredness – at 03:04 and, Thank you.

History Lover – at 15:56

Dennis in Colorado - You have as usual brought up one of the most pertinent issues of this entire discussion. Where would power inhere -with the states as promised in the Tenth Amendment, “the powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people,” or will Article I, Section 8 (the so-called Elastic Clause) prevail? This article gives the federal government the right to “make all Laws which shall be necessary and proper for carrying into Execution the foregoing Powers, and all other Powers vested by this Constitution in the Government of the United States, or in any Department or Officer thereof.” In other words, the issue will be the historic one of federal rights versus states rights. Will the crisis create nationalization of utilities and public services such as occurred in World War I - telephone, telegraph and railroad? Or will local utilities retain control? What do you think?

Olymom – at 17:16

Work with school boards/districts to 1) have pregnant staff go home immediately 2) close schools EARLY in pandemic — and educate parents that a school closure for pandemic is different than school closure for a snow day — sounds dumb, but I can guarantee that kids will be on the telephone asking “Can Mandy come over and spend the night?”

Figure out NOW what the policy is for paying staff who are not at work (such as a teacher when the school is closed) — are they using up sick days? vacation days? These will be early questions and should be addressed.

Jane – at 17:38

If the water and sewage collection/treatment systems fail, people will need substitutes. Sickness will result if people aren’t prepared with sanitation ideas and supplies. Depending on population density, it could get really nasty, very soon. [And of course, simultaneously, people will be looking for drinking water.] Government-subsidized (or at least tax write-offs for families and businesses) buckets and plastic bags for toilets could help minimize illness.

Dennis in Colorado – at 17:50

History Lover – at 15:56
I agree, it will be an issue of federal powers versus state & individual rights.
However, for Article 1, Section 8 to apply, the issue must be one “of the foregoing powers” or must be one vested by the Constitution in the Government of the United States. That gives Congress the authority to make laws regarding Post Roads, coining of money, the raising of an army and a navy, and laws concerning treason & piracy on the high seas.
The only way around that is to declare an emergency of the highest order and suspend certain elements of the Constitution (as Lincoln did).
I’m not quite ready for that, though I suspect others are.

LMWatBullRunat 18:42

I respectfully suggest that CRFullMoon has touched on a MAJOR problem that is not being recognized most places- What do we do with the potentially infectious dead bodies that will abound during a severe pandemic? CDC and DHS could do a lot of good by issuing recommendations to the states and localities for what to do about death certificates and field-expedient handling of dead bodies. If there is a severe pandemic we will lose more people in 6 weeks than we normally lose in a year or two. One way or another, this problem will be dealt with, if not by the local authorities then by the local people or by Nature. Best if there is a reasonable set of suggestions put forth by the Feds on how to handle this.

It will certainly serve as a wakeup call for the rest of the sheeple……

Wolf – at 19:31

Lots of great ideas here. Have little to add except that while we’re possibly facing a unique situation, we don’t have to reinvent the wheel. The military, for one, has a great deal of experience dealing with massive logistical challenges. Even though they’re a bit busy at the moment, there has got to be a wealth of information out there. (As I recall from my Army days you could learn to do just about anything from a Training Manual) Another source is Doctors Without Borders for expertise in dealing with emergency medical situations in a primitive field situation. Again, while they will no doubt be overwhelmed, any sort of literature or SOP’s would be useful to provide to HCW. Refugee agencies familiar with issues of mass populations with few resources would be source of info for sanitation issues. These are ideas that have probably already been addressed, but I just haven’t seen the info. If it’s available, make it accessible. If not - let’s go get it.

anon_22 – at 22:45

bump

DemFromCTat 23:00

Another issue is licensing. If NY docs want to help in CT (or nurses), can they? Can lay people be elevated to do simple tasks usually done by licensed people? Is it state by state (a morass)? What’s the role of the Feds in setting policy? What about malpractice insurance for these good samaritans? Who pays?

anon_22 – at 23:10

Dem,

I have a different thought. What about getting out of the licensing debate for now? (Or at least conduct that as an adminstrative not a policy issue.) What about starting to look at teaching ordinary people simple home nursing skills, but doing that in massive numbers?

These are not mutually exclusive avenues, but I have a concern that every time this comes up, we may quickly get bogged down in licensing issues which will go way over the heads of ordinary people, who will be getting the meta-message that this has nothing to do with them and ‘those professionals’ will find a solutions.

Also, I think there’s a real risk that some volunteers’ concerns about putting their names on registers of any kind, for fear that they may be compelled to act, may stop them coming forwards.

OTOH, basic courses for everyone, with no certificate or license at the end of it, will both create an egalitarian and pragmatic mood, as well as (hopefully) make people more aware that they need to depend on their own resources.

Just thinking out loud…

Tom DVM – at 23:37

Dem and anon. If I was in charge of developing a pandemic medical system, I would first set some assumptions and the two most important to me would be 1) no standard healthcare system and most definitely no hospitals and 2) the requirements for pharmaceuticals will be many multiples (1000′s) of the demand today…

…if we have no pharmaceuticals then the rest of the argument really doesn’t matter…does it?

If we assume the drugs are avaliable then a few healthcare workers in a secure area on the telephone can service a great number of very worried or panicked care givers.

Those care givers could drive up to a neighbourhood MacDonalds take out window and pick up the number of recquired care packages for their family…as told to the person using standard take-out communications. The packages would included antibiotics antifever drugs, oral electrolytes and yes, in my case, prednisolone…and there would be a manual of instructions to go with it to help allay fears.

For the more serious cases, if possible, we could arrange for roving groups of healthcare workers although I’m not sure they would remain functional in an all out pandemic with 1918-like illness.

However, this system would maximize limited resources and ensure that our healthcare workers giving advice would not get influenza from directly contacting sick patients…computers could also be used in the same way.

Thanks.

senegal1 – at 23:40

My comments: Local communities have to be networked officially to a hospital in their area. So in a pandemic I know that my area hospital is X. Then each hospital needs a hotline that can be answered by a nurse or doctor who can answer from home and each local person needs to know what it is. Then each community needs to stock pile CPAP and Bi-PAP machines (as well as the brown bag of medicine mentioned above). If you read the literature on these — in the early stages of ARDS (a typical complication), these machines work better than O2 and ventilators with fewer complications. And they are made for HOME USE. Besides no hospital has enough money for more ventilators but they can buy many many CPAP machines for the cost of one ventilator. Also some of these machines now come with batteries. These machines can be dropped off at local homes with an instruction card along with the idea from above of the brown bag of medicine. An alternative would be to have these in an adjunct center to the hospital if the idea of home use is too bothersome for some local communities. Individuals can also call the hotline to a Respiratory Nurse for help setting it up. As a front line effort this could be effective in saving a fair number of people. However the liability issues might be too large to overcome.

Also in ARDs there are number of things which can be done from positioning the person in a certain way so that it`s still possible to breathe to feeding a solution high in essential fatty acids to taking statins (don`t without a doctor recommendation). We need to have some experts look over the literature and give us an opinion about non-medicine remedies — maybe something like “worth a try”, “dangerous”, “don`t try without a doctor`s advice” so on. Such things as essential fatty acids, vitamin D supplementation, etc. Those that are worth a try should be stockpiled for local communities.

Also it is unacceptable for the US Government to simply negate the role it has to play in getting poorer segments of the population prepared. If you have money you can stockpile food if not — well too bad. I think the food stamp idea above is an excellent one but would have to be put in place months before not at the last second. Unfortunately, some people will just sell the extra food stamps for more money that month so you would have build around that.

Finally, we need real communication. We need all the gene sequences that any public group in the US has released immediately. We need the US government to refuse to provide Tamiflu stockpiles or money to any government that won`t release the sequences and we need sanctions for those that continue to hoard. We also need a government website with real scientific information on it that is updated daily about the actual state of the science of the virus.

Okieman – at 23:55

anon_22,

Jane – at 17:38 adressed an issue that has been in the back of my mind for some time. It is not a matter of the actual failure of the wastewater collection and treatment systems per se, but rather the potential lack of manpower to operate them due to sickness contracted on the job or elsewhere. H5N1 has already been shown to be present in human waste. It will take real heroism on the part of sewage treatment plant operators simply to go to work.

This health problem for the wastewater system operators has additional implications to the water system. This is due to the fact that for many smaller towns, one or two people operate both the water and wastewater systems. If they get sick trying to keep a lift station up and running, then their sickness will likely impact the continued operation of the water system. This was not so much an issue back in 1918 because many households had their own well, and also still used outhouses. But today, I would say this issue is a nightmare. It is extremely important to maintain the health of these workers.

In addition, as has been noted elsewhere, if/when sewers start backing up, health problems begin to multiply. Contaminated neighborhoods. Contaminated streams and lakes. If this occured during freezing conditions the virus contaminated wastewater would linger and pose a risk until warmer temperatures prevailed. (If my memory serves me correctly, H5N1 has been shown to last indefinitely in freezing conditions.)

Here are two links which addresses H5N1 in water and wastewater:

http://www.who.int/water_sanitation_health/emerging/h5n1background.pdf

http://www.who.int/foodsafety/micro/avian/en/index1.html#section%202

18 October 2006

Posie – at 00:23

JR, this is brilliant!

>> 2. For those who can’t afford to prep, allow a one-time-only opportunity to make a penalty-free withdrawal from their medical savings account, 401K, or similar savings instrument to purchase supplies. If abuse of this opportunity is of concern, perhaps a fixed amount per person in each household could be set, and receipts for supply purchases could be required.>>

i mean, i particularly love this part…

>>3. For those below a certain income level, allow a one-time-only opportunity to apply for food stamps equivalent to the amount needed to prepare for each person in their household. >>

only not sure about the “one time only”. certainly the benefits would need be associated with risk communication and preparedness classes.

as an aside, there do seem to already be plans for hotlines.

great brainstorming, all! good luck, anon_22!

mpb – at 02:31

1) the other major governmental body which isn’t addressed but which also ISN’T included in state and municipality planning is tribal governments. It isn’t simply an oversight. If tribal governments are not specifically included, they are specifically excluded (for example, environmental laws do not apply. Laws which specifically include “reservations” do not include any Oklahoma tribes; only 3 of NM 23 tribes, and only 1 of 300 something tribes in Alaska. Laws which apply to American Indians specifically exclude Yup’ik and Inupiat Eskimos and Aleuts (Unangan). For many regions in the US, the tribal governments are the governing body for evacuations routes, police and firefighter backup (for example, nuclear weapons labs), cell towers, health clinics, food commodities, senior servcies, etc which are needed by non-tribal members and governments.

2) we already have instances where the federal pandemic response has been implemented. For example, in Alaska, the state and tribal and Federal agencies were broadcasting there was no bird flu in North America, after the test results were publicly released elsewhere that we (our birds) did have LPAI H5N1. Why hasn’t the leading edge, the initial focus of US efforts, of bird flu prep, not been successful? It’s still early and of a small enough scale to analyze what happened and what the implications are for other parts of the country and for later in the pandemic response. Also, 2/3 of the state regularly get cut off from “civilization” but never for more than a week at a time (9/11) — what can and cannot be restored or made operational solely by local resources could probably indicate what would benefit or be disastrous on a larger scale.

lugon – at 04:31

It looks like one of us will be creating a wiki page to help anon_22 digest all this input, no? :-)

Here it is. The idea for a wiki-page at this stage is that we may harvest what’s been written in the thread. Harvest may mean:

Personally I intend to print out this thread and, as anon_22 suggests, take our time. Sit down with a notebook, make a pot of coffee, write, think, re-write. When you’re satisfied you’ve said what you want to say to TPTB, post.

2beans – at 08:32

Re: sewage and waste water contaminants. Read effect measure this a.m. I wonder if there is some sort of additive for sewage that could possibly turn this situation into an asset (so to speak). i.e., Tamiflu will pass into waste systems undeteriorated.

Bluebonnet – at 09:04

I agree with JR. My biggest concerns are:

  1. Nursing home residents. What is the plan? They were left to die in NO.
  2. Undocumented workers. Right now this portion of the US is cut off from most information. Here in Houston this community is very, very wary of governmental authorities. There have been roundups. Folks will be very suspicious of activities related to pandemic flu. Are plans underway to address this very thorny issue?
  3. Food pantries. Plans need to be implemented immediately to keep food pantries stocked. Too many Americans rely on this “emergency” food as it is.
  4. Homeless folks. What is the plan for them?

I think JR’s plan to issue additional food stamps for prepping is a wonderful idea. I also would like to see the State and/or Federal authorities lift sales taxes on prepping items just like they do in Texas for back-to-school and in Florida for hurricane preparedness.

History Lover – at 11:30

Dennis in Colorado - I agree with you completely. Who knows what will happen? Will local governments take control of various issues only to be superceded by federal authority (after telling us we’re on our own)? Nationalization of critical goods, services and manpower is certainly a possibility, but it will also most certainly create tremendous conflict. Living in a city with one of the nation’s largest military posts, I do consider the implications of this. Your thoughts on this subject are always welcome.

mpb - You are also right on the money. As usual, Indian tribes will be one of our most vulnerable groups. Those who are under federal jurisdiction may receive no help from local communities, because they are considered “non-taxpayers.” Those who are not under federal jurisdiction may also receive no help, because everyone assumes Indian tribes are self-sufficient. And you are so right to point out that tribes contribute so much not only to their own people but to local communities. In World War II the Roosevelt administration declared American Indians to be a “natural war resource”. This enabled the government to draft Indians into the work force and more importantly, to utilize all natural resources on the reservations.

If you know of anyone in Congress or government we could contact and ask about their plans concerning Indian tribes, I would like to have that information. The only one I know who is on the Senate Committee on Indian Affairs is John McCain.

If it’s not too personal, I am curious as to whether or not you are an American Indian. If I’m prying, I apologize.

senegal1 – at 12:17

I posted this in the thread on the VA, MD, Washington DC Get Together but it bears repeating here. One key thing lacking as far as I can see now is horizontal communication bewteen services within a community. I see lots of vertical knowledge — school principals know other principals for example — but they don`t know the business leaders of some of the main stores in their communities. Ditto for the store owners, etc. We need communication information based upon geographical location — horizontal information — as well as a chain of command up the county government line.

2beans – at 12:44

Bluebonnet: the mergency food stamp program is already in effect. After Katrina, affected state employees were also allowed to tap into 401k without penalty. As part of south Louisiana’s hurrican damage mitigation plan, supplies have been pre-positioned in various locations for disaster relief WORKERS, along with sophosticated communication equipment, in POD form, presumably for delivery by airlift.

One of my biggest concerns is about the homeless. Consideration needs to be given to all “outsider” groups- foreign language speakers, including sign language, the Vietnamese community, etc. Mzny of these groups have a strong church or organization affinity. The homeless are another matter. I hate to keep returning to the example of Katrina, but it really is the best template. In Katrina’s aftermath, my area was awash with newly re-located homeless - well, people whose ties with society were severed long ago - alcoholics, the mentally ill, drug addicts. They do not have the ability to find a food stamp office nor, in many cases, to use the food stamps. I’m afraid that plan would just make them more exposed to abuse by hoodlums. What they DO have is an affinity for a particular street corner and the store nearest to it. This is why I bring up the idea of PODS. Supplies can be tailored to areas served. In inner city corridors, they could be stocked with food as well as medical supplies, perhaps to be staffed by people familiar enough with the immediate area to at least recognize the faces. In more prosperous areas, maybe basic medical supplies would be enough.

The plan and technology are already there and need only be somewhat expanded in scope and tailored in application by location.

Timber – at 13:02

As long as we’re at it:

Is anyone considering the foreign policy implications of a pandemic? What if our allies are hit first, and hit hard? Will we send them aid? Will we deploy personnel to help quell civil disturbances in, for example, Great Britain?

If TSHTF in, say, Indonesia and Iraq, will we be ready to respond to the inevitable claims that the pandemic is an anti-Islamic plot engineered by the US? Anti-US sentiment will explode, and with it the possibility of terrorist acts.

It now appears possible that oil-producing regions in Africa and Asia will be among the first hit. What if the pandemic is raging in the Middle East, but we are somehow able to minimize the contagion here? Oil will stop flowing, but demand will remain high. Do we have a plan, or are we just going to muddle through?

In my experience, questions such as these are most likely to get the attention of the people who really control things. Has anyone slapped them upside the head with a pandemic two-by-four? These questions might be the way to get them to act to protect and provide for us all…

anonymous – at 13:56
ConnectRNat 14:15

The public will be looking to local government (mayor, county executive, commissioners, managers, etc.)to take the lead during a pandemic. We need to make sure that they buy in to the potential for a pandemic. As a local health official I can have all the plans I want, but without the backing and support of local government my efforts may be for naught. Most of the authority granted to a town/city/county, under a governors declaration of an emergency is wielded by your local elected officials, not public health. Some will meet the challenge, others will falter. HHS has held statewide meetings on pandemic preparations over the last year all across the nation, but the message has been embraced by few, and ignored by many. The IOM must ensure that local government is part of the solution, not part of the problem.

JR – at 14:40

2beans, I like your idea about PODS for dealing with homeless, addicts, etc., and I agree that very creative strategies will be needed to assist the most vulnerable in our society during a pandemic. However, when I mentioned the food stamp idea, I had a different segment of the population in mind - and it wasn’t exclusively those who already rely on food stamps (though they should definately be included).

I was thinking more along the lines of what percentage of the American public can actually afford to prep - even if they took BF seriously and were desperate to do so. I suppose the answer would depend heavily on the length of time for which SIP preps were needed, but let’s say, for the sake of the discussion, that the length of time is closer to 3 months than it is to 2 weeks. How many people can afford to do that?

Prepping for a family of four for three months has run me into the thousands of dollars. I’m reasonably comfortable financially, but shelling out several grand has nevertheless…hurt. I fear that a significant number of families who’ve never been on food stamps (and who couldn’t imagine ever needing them) would find it simply impossible to afford to prep for that period of SIP. Hence, even if the govt. hollered from the rooftops about the need to prep, what difference would it make for these folks? I don’t have any hard data, of course, but it wouldn’t suprise me at all if half the population couldn’t come up with the money to even set themselves up with water (storage containers and filtration systems being as outrageously expensive as they are). Most of these people wouldn’t qualify for today’s emergency food stamp program, and if we wait until a pandemic to qualify them, it will be too late.

Maybe the term “food stamp” conjures up the wrong image of the people I’m thinking about. Maybe a “disaster planning credit” for those below a certain income makes more sense.

EnoughAlreadyat 15:07

Potable water and waste management HAVE to be addressed. These are the very basic, bottom-line “emergency” preparation mitigations.

Electricity has to be available, even if rationed. It is imperative to the most basic “health” standards. (Hygiene, sanitation, temperature regulations, etc.)

If food is even considered as a “possible” scarcity, which it must be or they wouldn’t be telling us to stock-up for whatever the “time” is now, then there is a paramount need for state and local governments to prepare food banks. MILK for infants is an absolute that has to be a prioritized fundamental preparation. In fact, it would be prudent, IMHO, to be having an outright breastfeeding campaign. WIC, extension agencies, Red Cross, etc, need to be having classes offered at the community level dealing with food safety, food preparation, management, budgetting, caretaker roles, etc. For example, ORS formula’s need to be available at low literacy level and at nominal cost. Client/citizens need to be trained in such procedures, including understanding of why they are used and when.

School districts need to have clearly defined plans for closing and opening of classes. This can’t happen too late, or resume too early. Parents/caregivers need some guage of what to expect with helpful information concerning this flu. Additionally, many parents/caregivers will need information and helpful resources (age appropriate) to continue educational studies.

Essential workers need to be identified, targeted and prepared. Foremost, they must be protected.

Grace RN – at 16:17

This horrible thought has been nagging me. In 1918 there were a huge number of orphaned and single parent families created because of the pandemic.

In today’s society-as opposed to that of 1918-there is a huge number of single parent families. Usually the mother is head of the household, and needs to work to maintain the family.

A moderate to severe pandemic now, IMHO, would drastically-terribly-increase the number of orphaned children who will need care, physically and mentally.

With the low priority placed on today’s childcare and sick leave (USA), honestly I have no ideas on how to address this.

It’s such a painful thing to even contemplate, yet, are we

Bluebonnet – at 16:39

As to the PODS - see below from another site I read:

“Was told today to Immediately start executing state Pandemic flu plans as of Nov 1st. Put the phase 1 plans in motion and get the positions filled and trained. All to be done and reported back by end of November of the positions, disciplines, and persons. All resource typing to be finished, and NIMS positions in order.”

Answers question regarding “immediately” “Just implementing the plans. Assigning the shelters, personel positions in place, NIMS requirments done, MOU’s completed. Also, making sure shelters are stocked with required supplies. Preparation for storage of the POD distributions. Who will have security level to be present when POD arrives and items stored.

Which funeral homes will handle the dead. Just the intial stages of the plan. “Start putting it in motion from step A” as it was said.

I dont know what information, may just be that winter season is coming up. I cannot say, just following orders.”

JR - OHHHHH I like your Disaster Planning Credit. If FEMA can distribute AFTER a disaster why not before?

Grace - I too worry about the orphans. I think I worry the most about the most vunerable of our folks. I also worry about prisoners (including juvenile offenders) and the mentally ill/disabled. What happens to them?

In short - WHAT ARE THE PLANS, STAN? Sorry to shout like that but I am really, really, really getting tired of not knowing the PLAN!!! Or lack of one. Just TELL us already!

JR – at 17:16

Hey Bluebonnet, you and I must be traveling down some of the same roads. I caught that info you mentioned about PODS myself.

When it comes to the orphans and other unfortunates, even a Disaster Planning Credit won’t be of any use - especially if 90% of the rest of the population isn’t even squared away. I simply can’t imagine a scenario which protects these people in the event of a sudden pandemic - unless it’s been planned out in advance on the local level somehow. Which, if 90% of the general population can’t even be persuaded to do for themselves…just won’t ever happen. The only real chance for the most vulnerable, is if the majority are prepared enough to extend a helping hand.

History Lover – at 17:25

Enough Already - You described everything succinctly and reasonably. It’s just too bad you’re not in charge of FEMA. OTOH you’re obviously overqualified.

lugon – at 17:37

are we being useful for anon_22′s purpose? I hope so!

2beans – at 18:33

JR: Although I see your point about advance food stamp eligibility for prepping, I have grave doubts as to whether the feds would approve due to the massive amount of fraud turned up post-Katrina (there’s that word again). What I CAN see happening is advance stocking of food banks and pantries, or PODS throughout a given area. The distribution must be of sufficient locus frequency, i.e., maybe 1 mile between centers, so that limitations on travel can still be reasonably observed and security maintained. This is where something along the lines of block captains, or street corner social workers - people who know the people in the area - would enter the equation. I admit I,m sort of thinking out loud, but neighborhoods ARE basically self-identified and it seems to me this factor should be used for organizational advantage. Another possibility is USDA-run counters in grocery stores and eligible families applying for and being issued “scrip” type currency, usable only for storable food. That might be feasible.

2beans – at 18:46

Bluebonnet: can you source your information from that other site? Our state plan specifies that the supplies cached pre-event are reserved for disaster workers only. Also, I’m familiar with the NIMS, had to complete them, but what are the MOUs?

Grace: I’m assuming (well, hoping) Social Services will step in where children are left orphaned. The weak link I see is appointing a party responsible for notification. And believe me, folks - and I meant to add this to my earlier post - we want the responsible party to be the personal “us”, not the federal or NGO “them”. The biggest single F-Up factor in Katrina was that “them” would not get out of the way for “us” to put our small boats into the water and save people. Fortunately, “us” knew of many other put-in points that “them” couldn’t find. Of course, “them” also couldn’t find their butts with both hands. Did I just say that? Why yes I did!

Edna Mode – at 20:35

Cannot emphasize enough the essential need for early school and public venue closures.

Equally important: Require insurance companies NOW to authorize and reimburse a one-time, three-month stockpile of all maintenance prescription medications

No funds for supplemental food stamps. These funds should instead be used to stock community food banks and emergency shelters.

Communication needs to begin now to reinforce the idea that it is necessary and OK to stay home during pandemic:

The government at its highest levels (GWB) needs to begin communicating now in the most public forums (televised address to the nation) to all corporate and private citizens that resources will be available, including…

Tax-free/penalty-free access to retirement funds to aid in post-pandemic economic recovery.

Grace periods on secured and revolving debt payments for duration of pandemic and for at least three to six months post-pandemic. The corporations that underwrite this debt have ample time NOW to insure and reinsure their exposure in the event of pandemic.

Family Medical Leave during pandemic no questions asked (no hassles over leave paperwork having not been submitted beforehand, etc.). The government should enact emergency legislation NOW to require employer compliance.

Broad and liberal interpretation of other leave policies (sick, vacation, bereavement) during pandemic to ensure that sick people stay home without fear of job/income loss.

Anon_451 – at 20:43

Edna Mode – at 20:35 Go to http://www.opm.gov/pandemic/ Feds already have it in place.

Edna Mode – at 20:44

anon_22 - at 19:16 Since everybody who is anybody working on this is absolutely maxed out in their time commitments, it would help if posts are well thought out, concise, and constructive.

lugon ¨C at 17:37 are we being useful for anon_22¡äs purpose? I hope so!

Points taken, anon_22 and lugon.

People, Anon_22 has enough to do without wading through lots of discussion. Please make your points succinctly, and, if a topic has arisen in the course of this thread that you feel deserves fuller discussion, start a separate thread.

But here, in this thread, let’s try to stay on task. Keep the posts short, sweet, sage, and decorous.

This is a great opportunity. Perhaps one of the best we’ve had to potentially influence the broader public conversation. Let’s not blow it.

19 October 2006

fredness – at 07:36

Life globe facing a common threat. Humans are working instinctively to protect themselves. Many are individuals and groups are working very hard on various aspects of this. We will reap the greatest benefit if we coordinate our time and energies. We must recognize the importance of using existing data and be aware of the benefits and costs of redundant efforts. One way of doing this is for organizations to utilize a commonly available means of sharing information. Traditionally this would be provided in a press release and the public is dependant on the discretion of news editors to include the news. They also publish study results in non-profit sources of information like the National Library of Medicine’s PubMed, the Proceedings of the National Acadamy of Science and the Public Library of Science. The FluWiki serves to facilitate sharing this information. I am certain we could benefit from the various organizations preparing for a pandemic would greatly increase the return on time and energy invested if they (as individuals and groups) participated in posting resources here on the FluWiki. Through coordinated efforts adding information into the knowledgebase we will all benefit and can minimize the loss of life. That would be the best “Community Based Mitigation Strategy” I can think of.

1- the quality of existing models about a potential influenza pandemic and their utility for predicting the effects of various community containment policies on disease mitigation.

I remember reading in the news that IBM was about to start a model of their Global Pandemic Initiative (link to their press release and point of contact). It appears to focus on disease outbreaks and “elements will be shared with the open source community”. Another part called Project Checkmate will study viral evolution and immune response with Scripps Clinic.

Another large modeling effort is Modeling of Infectious Disease Agent Study (MIDAS), a collaborative network of scientists, leads in researching the use of computation and mathematical models that will prepare the nation to respond to outbreaks of infectious diseases. press release and graphic simulation

There was a similar study titled If Smallpox Strike Portland also by Los Alamos National Laboratory. See also Effects of behavioral changes in a smallpox attack model

We have some information about models here (which could be more complete by using info from this post).

lugon – at 08:32

Big picture …

I’ve napkin-mapped a few global challenges: pandemic flu, peak-oil, peak-food, global warming, disruption by massive terrorism, and maybe a few others. They feed on each other, they have some things in common, and they also have quite a few differences.

Local self-reliance, which would probably need global facilitation to be effective and fast, plays a role in most if not all of them:

All in all, pandemic flu is unique in that it will be sudden and simultaneous, will affect humans directly (not the hardware or the software, but the wetware), and will induce some level of “fear to help”. And some pandemic-flu specific things are needed, such as masks, home-treatment (including inmunomodulators and good old rehydratation), and even, while we’re at it, maybe some antivirals and some few-and-late vaccines.

But in any case local self-reliance is a must, as is communication so that we may learn cooperatively what works and what doesn’t work. (If you’re the second town to be affected, wouldn’t you love to know what worked in the first town?)

Now, the thing is we’ve actively walked away from self-reliance. Things were inevitably local back in 1918, just because food or drugs couldn’t possibly travel thousands of miles from farm to table; they had to be local. Now we need to run forward to a new kind of chosen, globally sustained, self-reliance. I don’t mind buying globalised pipes to irrigate my local crops, but crops must be local. (And this is from an urbanite who can’t tell lettuces from baobabs - at least not without googleing for them.)

So: self-reliance in food, water, energy and communications. Globally facilitated self-reliance.

This is not to say that we have zero self-reliance now. If we measure it on a 0–100 scale, we may be at some point between 20 and 30, by my guesstimate. We need to push, facilitate, beg, borrow, squeeze our brains, sleep less (or more), all until we reach say 60 or 70 on that scale. Globally and locally. In as many places of the world as possible. In a couple of years or less. Starting with whatever is easiest, makes immediate sense and/or has lots of help if we let it happen (perhaps reviewing regulation of self-supplied energy will change the rules so that people will spend their own money - just an example).

Thanks for letting me rant about this. Thing is, what bothers me more about the next flu pandemic and all of the other things is: darn, we can do it!

Anyway - what’s the Federal role in this? I don’t know. :-)

Grace RN – at 09:00

2beans – at 18:46

regarding current social work status and dealing with newly oprhaned kids during and post panflu

As of right now 10/19/06, social work agencies can’t cope with what they have to deal with now. Crack/HIV/AIDS is predating panflu re: a slew of orphans and abused/neglected kids.

lugon – at 09:19

Grace RN - “Social work agencies can’t cope”.

It looks like we’re in a “can’t cope” world. Maybe it can’t be business as usual or more of the same any more.

Bluebonnet – at 09:34

2beans- don’t know what MOUs are. Go to www.terminusreality.com and check out the 9103 weekly discussion thread. He posts each week (usually) and seems to have some inside info on pandemic flu and other natural disasters. Is he right? Can’t tell you that - but he has been right on a lot of things. Each person needs to make up his/her mind about what he is saying.

I, too, gather that the PODs he mentions are for disaster workers.

lugon- you hit my frustation as to no info right on the head.

Anon22 - can you somehow convey to TPTB at the conference the frustation folks are feeling right now with the lack of information?

fredness – at 10:14

2- Conclusions that can be drawn from the historical record and available science, gaps in current knowledge, and approaches that would narrow these gaps.

In order to minimize redundancy it is important to clarfiy what we already know and what we don’t know. There is a lot of information here on the FluWiki index from many authoritative sources. Lugon has a good idea with mind mapping the outline summary.

There are 43.000 references to pandemic on PubMed. There are 47 on Public Library Of Science, 166 on Proceedings of the National Acadamy of Science.

Why re-invent the wheel? I have often felt administration is important in all areas of life. See who is doing something well and learn from their model.

nsthesia – at 10:46

Suggestions for Panflu Mitigation:

Utilize the media to inform citizens of threat.

Encourage education channels to create and air programs on influenza and pandemic flu.

Encourage media to increase information on preparation for panflu.

Encourage airing of PSAs (facts, preps, home care, etc.), increasing in intensity as situation develops.

Initiate a National Awareness Campaign (cough etiquette, crowd avoidance, handwashing, school monitoring, etc.), involving individuals, businesses, schools, military, etc.

Encourage/Develop programs of 30 min. increments educate about: Prepping, Sheltering in Place, Personal Protective Equipment, Home Care of Patient, etc.

Mari – at 12:16

If we focus on individual communities (towns, cities, up to states), community-based strategies are needed for the following:

  1. How to prevent people from getting sick from the virus (e.g., processes for vaccination, anti-virals, social distancing, closing schools)
  2. How to treat people sick from the virus to minimize deaths (e.g., special wing of hospital, home nursing, nursing hotline)
  3. How to keep healthy people from getting sick or dying from other things (e.g., treatment of non-flu illnesses/injuries, home delivery of babies, provision for food/water/power, arrangements for children & vulnerable populations, filling prescriptions)
  4. How to fill in for workers who are sick or tending for the sick (e.g., mobilization of retirees, cross-training)

Each community will have a different set of vulnerabilities and priorities for addressing them. I thought about my own community, and came up with major categories for possible vulnerabilities of:

Some strategies that my community could implement to mitigate effects of a pandemic:

2beans – at 14:55

Grace at 9:00 - You don’t need to tell me about the shortcomings of Social Services. We’re chronically understaffed. The feds are very good at mobilization of large amounts of forces and goods; at micromanagement - not so hot. Let them do what they do best then get out of the way. I think care for orphened kids may best be handled by folks nearby who already know the kids. This is not ideal but at least a certain amount of comfort and good will may already exist between kids and neighbors.

Bump – at 23:16

20 October 2006

lugon – at 06:31

Utilize the media to inform citizens of threat.

Maybe govs can’t or won’t do that directly, but they can foster open meetings in which “experts” (see Forum.WhoIsQualifiedToAssessTheConsequencesOfAPandemic thread) assess things. Such meetings should be both national and local. They would include some basic information (a power point presentation about the virus, pandemics in general, and little else), with a set of parameters that define a pandemic (“pandemic wave in a spreadsheet”, “lenght of disease”, “absentism rates in essential workers and in HCW”, and possibly other things), and then “off you go!”.

lugon – at 06:36

So, the “experts” would be police officers, supermarket owners, etc.

2beans – at 06:50

Bluebonnet:

Found it - MOU = Memorandum of Understanding, as between two agencies or jurisdictions, or division of responsiblities. States may have MOUs with the USGS regarding primary functions of each after a natural disaster.

anon_22 – at 09:13

Just a quick note to thank everyone for such wonderful inputs. I’m on the road with an increasingly unreliable laptop :-( so I may not be able to respond as much as I would want. Trying to decide whether to re-install Windows without access to another PC (and risk the whole thing becoming completely unusable for the next few days) or muddle along (and risk the whole thing crashing completely at any moment) is a hard choice.

I guess if I were to triage :-) this I would go for the latter option.

Still I can read your inputs, even if it means downloading and printing it off of hotel computers!

lugon – at 10:02

anon_22: Maybe get yourself a linux live-CD such as http://www.damnsmalllinux.org or http://puppyos.com/cd-puppy.htm … if that particular “brand” of linux sees your modem, then you can use it to surf the net even if your old Windows is broken.

Either that, or your two options.

fredness – at 15:30

anon_22: Plan to buy a Lenovo or ThinkPad. First do a backup if at all possible. Pay a shop if you must because losing data is terrible. A good pc shop can also perform a “repair in place” on winxp. If you are tech savy you can try it yourself, instructions are here (at a glance it looks good but I cannot vouch for the author). Official Microsoft info is here

Please excuse the thread drift. We now return to our regularly scheduled Pandemic Mitigation Strategies.

anon_22 – at 22:02

fredness – at 15:30

anon_22: Plan to buy a Lenovo or ThinkPad.

Erm…I am using a lenovo, dammit!

It seems to be ok tonight. Temperamental.

anon_22 – at 22:23

Actually, its not.

Bad day, overall.,

:-(

21 October 2006

Dizzy – at 18:32

A thought from the UK, where secretiveness is and has always been the order of the day.

Place some control in the hands of the people. Most folks given responsibility rise to the challlenge. Nationwide delivery of information packs on such things as:

If our governments can’t help us they can at least give us comprehensive information on how to help ourselves.

There is a website called Skillswap which appears to be in it’s infancy. Pushing such websites would be a good thing.

25 October 2006

crfullmoon – at 19:04

“A workshop on this topic will be held on Wednesday, October 25 & Thursday, October 26, 2006″

News to look forward to!

anon_22 – at 19:57

Just got back from Day 1 of the IOM workshop. The agenda was about evaluating the different models for non-pharmaceutical interventions, to figure out how much evidence there is, where are the gaps etc.

It was pretty good, and I’ll write about it definitely tonight. Right now I gotta go eat.

I’ll start a new thread for that.

senegal1 – at 22:58

Very interested in hearing about it and hope it was better than the one on Monday. Thanks for changing your schedule to stay for it.

I hope that they talked about the importance of open communication and creating trust in dealing with folks. I am getting the feeling more and more that the “authorities” tend to want to move directly to models using force to gain compliance. As we saw in some of the presentations on Monday — that doesn`t work. I suggest that all communities have a document that each potential decision maker must sign which states our goals for the ethics underlying the decisions that they will have to make.

Pixie – at 23:36

anon22 -

I think that the single most effective change that could be made right now by the kinds of people you are seeing at your meeting would be to encourage them to begin to move decisively to involve the public health officers of this country fully in pandemic flu preparation.

The public health officers are the link between state and federal goverment and the individual decision makers running our cities and towns. However, in my experience, the public health community has been slow to become enthused about encouraging their communities, and the decision makers they report to, to prepare for a pandemic. Their reticence is not without merrit - if they are wrong, and the pandemic threat eventually evaporates, they fear that their jobs and professional reputations may evaporate also.

How can public health officers be encouraged to move beyond these valid fears? How can they become engaged and be motivated to take the threat of a pandemic seriously, and to advise the leaders of their communities to do the same?

A typical town mayor cannot wear all hats, and must delegate questions of public health to those with that title. This is working against us, at the moment, because most public health officers do not seem to be leading the pandemic preparedness movement. However, it seems to me that if we can manage to effect change in this one area, that it’s reach would be felt in many, many, mayor’s offices in this country. And that, in the end, is where the ultimate local decisions are made, where the funding is allocated, and where plans to prepare for pandemic influenza will either receive a “go” or “no-go” decision. If as many public health officials as possible could be encouraged to urge the decision makers they advise to move towards a “go” decision), action will happen, organization will happen, and lives may be saved. Without the impetus of their public health officials clear advise, though, most local officials will see no problem in continuing to ignore a threat that they have been advised does not really exist on a level that should worry them, and will instead, on that advise, choose to do nothing.

As Revere pointed out recently in an Effect Measure post, there is quite a difference between individual/family preparation and community preparation. A vigorous and effective effort to reach the public health officials of this nation and to encourage them to lead the effort to prepare their communities for pandemic influenza could be a simple and yet highly effective strategy.

26 October 2006

Fiddlerdave – at 02:28

Dennis in Colorado – at 08:56 “That is a fine Socialist plan but 1. The 10th amendment to the Constitution prohibits it” I find the argument of constitutionality of an emergency preparation - like making a power grid that would be adequate to keep our country from becoming a 3rd world nation overnight - kind of amusing less than a week after the suspension of Habeus Corpus, which makes all other constitutional rights a sham (along with numerous other federal butts in state’s issues). However, in the wake of a terrorist threat that has precipitated the immediate buildup of a huge federal agency (Homeland Security), allegedly protecting us from internal and external dangers, can we not wrap our minds and national security around nationally protecting electrical power, whether from terrorist ,pandemic or other system-wide failure (just from is own miserable condition), whatever the means? I suggest nationalization simply because there is no time (in my view) to build it from scratch (a highly preferable solution), nor do I suggest anyone else be prohibited from building their own power grid (generators can be private) with the generous payments I am sure they would get for their current holdings. But with the huge piece of the federal budget going to the “socialist” military defense system (why does no one suggest the feds are too incompetent for that - let’s contract the entire defense out to Halliburton! or that we each should own our own household nuclear devices), protecting our buildings from bombs or attacks is meaningless when simply depriving them of power makes them uninhabitable or useable, for living or for manufacturing goods, services, or defense materials. Our interstate highwy system would be a good model (once again for this purpose the grid could be managed by the states but there is no time to wait for each state to figure it out), and an example of the enormous value of cooperative effort for the survival, and incidentally the advancement, of our country. Our current choice of not being “socialist” in THIS national, essential, survival arena means we are just going to do without power and sacrifice 20 to 60% of the population and even more of our industrial capacity, and THAT industrial capacity, I assure you, the survivors are going to miss dearly.

29 October 2006

lugon – at 12:11

looking at the site of the organisers of this conference - will they publish slides somewhere?

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / 12

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: 12

24 October 2006

anonymous – at 08:18

Emerging Infectious Diseases journal Vol. 12, No. 11, November 2006, is now available on the Web. http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/index…_cid=eidindex_e

Anatidae Migration in Western Palearctic and Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus, M. Gilbert et al. http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol12…id=eid06_0223_e

Aerosol Transmission of Influenza A Virus, R. Tellier http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol12…id=eid06_0426_e

Social Distancing Design for Pandemic Influenza, R.J. Glass et al. http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol12…id=eid06_0255_e

Human Parainfluenza Type 4 Infections, Canada, M.-L. Vachon et al. http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol12…id=eid06_0196_e

Poultry Workers and Avian Influenza, R. Abbate et al. http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol12…id=eid06_0671_e

Avian Influenza Surveillance in ICU Patients with Community-acquired Pneumonia, A. Apisarnthanarak et al. http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol12…id=eid06_0443_e

Food Markets with Live Birds and Avian Influenza, M. Wang et al. http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol12…id=eid06_0675_e

Fatal Avian Influenza A H5N1 in a Dog, T. Songserm et al. http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol12…id=eid06_0542_e

Avian Influenza and US TV News, B.G. Southwell et al. http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol12…id=eid06_0672_e

Influenza-related Death Rates for Pregnant Women, P. Mortimer http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol12…id=eid06_1071_e

OIE/FAO International Scientific Conference on Avian Influenza, N. Marano http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol12…id=eid06_1013_e


Suggested citation for articles published electronically: Komar N, Lanciotti R, Bowen R, Langevin S, Bunning M. Detection of West Nile virus in oral and cloacal swabs collected from bird carcasses. Emerg Infect Dis [serial on the Internet]. 2002 Jul [cited 2002 May 30]. Available from http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol8no7/02-0157.htm

To remove yourself from EID-TOC, send a message to LISTSERV@CDC.GOV with the following in the body of your message: SIGNOFF EID-TOC

ISSN 1080–6059

This material is provided by the National Center for Infectious Diseases-a subunit of CDC/ATSDR. It has been cleared for public distribution and is authentic if accessed directly from listserv@cdc.gov or eid-toc@cdc.gov


ask experts for their panflu-probability estimates, and report their responses here !

anonymous – at 08:21

Emerging Infectious Diseases journal Vol. 12, No. 11,
November 2006, is now available on the Web.
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/index.htm?s_cid=eidindex_e


Anatidae Migration in Western Palearctic and Spread
of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus, M. Gilbert et al.
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol12no11/06-0223.htm?s_cid=eid06_0223_e

Aerosol Transmission of Influenza A Virus, R. Tellier
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol12no11/06-0426.htm?s_cid=eid06_0426_e

Social Distancing Design for Pandemic Influenza, R.J. Glass et al.
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol12no11/06-0255.htm?s_cid=eid06_0255_e

Human Parainfluenza Type 4 Infections, Canada, M.-L. Vachon et al.
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol12no11/06-0196.htm?s_cid=eid06_0196_e

Poultry Workers and Avian Influenza, R. Abbate et al.
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol12no11/06-0671.htm?s_cid=eid06_0671_e

Avian Influenza Surveillance in ICU Patients with
Community-acquired Pneumonia, A. Apisarnthanarak et al.
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol12no11/06-0443.htm?s_cid=eid06_0443_e

Food Markets with Live Birds and Avian Influenza, M. Wang et al.
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol12no11/06-0675.htm?s_cid=eid06_0675_e

Fatal Avian Influenza A H5N1 in a Dog, T. Songserm et al.
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol12no11/06-0542.htm?s_cid=eid06_0542_e

Avian Influenza and US TV News, B.G. Southwell et al.
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol12no11/06-0672.htm?s_cid=eid06_0672_e

Influenza-related Death Rates for Pregnant Women, P. Mortimer
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol12no11/06-1071.htm?s_cid=eid06_1071_e

OIE/FAO International Scientific Conference on Avian Influenza, N. Marano
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol12no11/06-1013.htm?s_cid=eid06_1013_e


Suggested citation for articles published
electronically: Komar N, Lanciotti R, Bowen R,
Langevin S, Bunning M. Detection of West Nile
virus in oral and cloacal swabs collected from
bird carcasses. Emerg Infect Dis [serial on the
Internet]. 2002 Jul [cited 2002 May 30]. Available
from http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol8no7/02-0157.htm
To remove yourself from EID-TOC, send a message
to LISTSERV@CDC.GOV with the following in the
body of your message: SIGNOFF EID-TOC
ISSN 1080–6059
This material is provided by the National Center
for Infectious Diseases-a subunit of CDC/ATSDR.
It has been cleared for public distribution and
is authentic if accessed directly from
listserv@cdc.gov or eid-toc@cdc.gov

Got Sidescroll – at 08:47

“ask experts for their panflu-probability estimates, and report their responses here ! “

Going Searching for what isn’t Going to Save you when “gasp comes to shove” anyway?

Gotta Stink to not Get Sufficient Gleaming Statistics…

29 October 2006

Blue – at 06:08

For spherical particles of unit density, settling times (for a 3-m fall) for specific diameters are 10 s for 100 ìm, 4 min for 20 ìm, 17 min for 10 ìm, and 62 min for 5 ìm; particles with a diameter <3 ìm essentially do not settle. Settling times can be further affected by air turbulence

 bump
Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.12
Page last modified on October 29, 2006, at 06:08 AM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / News Reports for October 28

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: News Reports for October 28

28 October 2006

AnnieBat 01:15

Summary from Indonesia Outbreak as at 26 October 2006 (latest update)

Cases DiscussedJun-06Jul-06Aug-06Sep-06Oct-06Total
Died, no tests2243415
Died, tested positive4323315
Other tested positive013105
Suspected symptoms42463827117
Tested negative062619758
Totals1014816441210

Lookout Posts – here are the links

Please visit these threads for latest information from these regions

(Please see the thread Volunteers Needed as Lookouts Worldwide if you want to help)


Summary of News for 27 October 2006

(From WHO as at 16 Oct - latest update) Total human cases worldwide 256, deaths 151 (2006 – 109 with 73 deaths)
(If you want the links to open in a new window, hold down the shift key and then click on the link)

China

Egypt

India

Indonesia

Iran

Thailand

United Kingdom

United States of America

General

Link to news thread for 27 October (link News Reports for October 27 )
(Usual disclaimer about may not have captured everything. Feel free to add your own where omissions have occurred.)
Please note that I copy the links directly from the thread so if they don’t work you may need to re-visit the Thread.

Leo7 – at 03:29

Research Describes Affordable Method for Businesses to Prepare for the Pandemic

CAMBRIDGE, Mass.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Oct 27, 2006 - ChainLink Research released a report today which found that fewer than 1 in 60 companies have an adequate, tested pandemic preparedness plan covering the expected duration of the pandemic. However, through understanding the issues of pandemic characteristics and supply chain challenges, ChainLink has derived a method for synchronizing trading partners’ investments in preparing for the expected bird flu pandemic. The report includes: — A series of emerging best practices for creating and implementing enterprise pandemic preparedness plans

— The medical facts in simple understandable terms

— Use of objective milestones to synchronize readiness investments with trading partners across a company’s supply chain

— A ground-breaking methodology to help companies move, in a cost-effective way, from unpreparedness to readiness, taking into consideration expected changes in demand for each company’s specific goods and services throughout the phases up to, during and after a pandemic. This crucial methodology is underpinned by two indices: −0-

        — Pandemic Demand Index™ (PDI) - The expected demand for
          specific products and services during phases of the
          pandemic
        — Pandemic Readiness Index™ (PRI) - The readiness of a
          business (including its trading partner network) to meet
          expected demand during the phases of the pandemic

Full article: http://tinyurl.com/yd6ztt

Edna Mode – at 09:40

Leo7 – at 03:29

This “article” was posted in yesterday’s news thread. It is a press release parading in news form with a link to a $795 report. The report may well be worth the $795 and the methods it recommends legit, but it isn’t news. It’s PR.

Klatu – at 09:45

Thai government to build plant for bird-flu vaccine

 October 28, 2006

Thai Public Health Minister Mongkol na Songkhla on Friday gave the go-ahead to plan for a vaccine plant to produce both influenza and bird-flu vaccines for humans in case of a global pandemic, Thai newspaper The Nation reported Saturday.

“The world’s total capacity to produce the two vaccines is only 300 million doses and if global pandemic really happens, no one will ever give us some,” Mongkol was quoted as saying after chairing a ministry meeting to review the bird-flu situation.

To set up its own vaccine plant, Thailand has to start from scratch given the “zero” expertise it possesses, Mongkol said.

At least three to four years are needed for construction of the plant and training of its workers before any vaccines can be produced. The cost of a plant with the capacity to produce two million doses of vaccine per year could be at least 600 million baht (16 million U.S. dollars), according to Phaijit Varachit, director-general of the Medical Science Department.” - excerpt

http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200610/28/eng20061028_316004.html

Klatu – at 09:54

H5N1 detections on the Internet: USDA, DOI

“In an effort to maintain transparency”

CONFIRMATORY AVIAN INFLUENZA TESTS COMPLETE ON OHIO DUCK SAMPLES WASHINGTON, Oct. 26, 2006 - “The U.S. Departments of Agriculture and Interior today announced final test results, which confirm that no avian influenza virus was found in samples collected earlier this month from wild Northern pintail ducks in Ohio.

To date, USDA and DOI have announced 12 presumptive positive and/or confirmatory test results in six states ( MI, MD, PA, MT, IL and OH ). As the expanded surveillance of wild birds for highly pathogenic avian influenza increases in the coming months, USDA and DOI expect additional detections of the “North American strain” of low pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza ( LPAI H5N1 ).

Because these LPAI H5N1 detections are common and pose no threat to human health , USDA and DOI are transitioning to a new method of notifying the public. ‘’’In an effort to maintain transparency, USDA and DOI will post all future suspected LPAI H5N1 detections on the Internet. DOI will maintain a list of all such routine detections as part of the National Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Early Detection Data System ( HEDDS ).’’’The low path H5N1 detection list can be accessed at http://wildlifedisease.nbii.gov/ai/LPAITable.pdf .

A link also will be available on USDA’s avian influenza Web page at http://www.usda.gov/birdflu . In the event of a presumptive H5N1 test result involving a large number of sick or dead birds, or other circumstances that suggest the possibility of a highly pathogenic virus, USDA and DOI will issue a news release or conduct a technical briefing to notify the media and the public. “

- excerpt

http://tinyurl.com/ymujf9

Pixie – at 10:06

Comment: The State of Connecticut has unveiled a new flu website. The site is at best lukewarm. They are linking to WHO FAQ’s that have not been updated in a year. They say “many aspects of daily life will be disrupted,” and that’s about as scary as they’re making it out to be. On the liklihood of pandemic influenza appearing, they only say that it has occurred three times in 100 years, and their only real nod to H5N1 in humans is a link to the WHO’s case summary page. They do, however, give a link to WHO’s “10 Things You Need to Know About Pandemic Influenza” which may be worth the price of admission. Otherwise, the general tone kept is one that would not frighten a first grader.

There is no information at all on preparing, whether for individuals, businesses, or municipalities. They pretty much cover that with this blanket statement:

If it looks like a pandemic is going to reach the U.S., the government will issue warnings and work with the media to advise people on the best course of action. If it looks likely that a pandemic will reach Connecticut, health officials will use the media and this website to advise people on what they should do.

I have no further comment.

CONNECTICUT

Friday, October 27, 2006

Governor Rell Announces New Avian and Pandemic Influenza Website

Governor M. Jodi Rell today officially launched www.ct.gov/ctfluwatch, a new website dedicated to helping Connecticut prepare for the possibility of avian and pandemic influenza.

http://www.ct.gov/ctfluwatch/site/default.asp

Klatu – at 10:11

More H5N1 Bird Flu in Michigan

Recombinomics Commentary October 26, 2006

“The USDA has reported detection of H5N1 in Michigan for the third time. The most recent report is in Mallard ducks in St Claire County. Like the sample reported for Tuscola County in Green-winged teals, viral isolation tests are ongoing. In August, H5N1 was isolated from Mute swans in Monroe County. Similarly, H5N1 has been isolated from resident wild mallards in Queen Anne’s County, MD as well as Mallard ducks in Crawford County, PA.

More recently, H5N1 isolation attempts have failed. H5N3 was isolated from Northern pintail ducks in Cascade County, MT and H6N2 was isolated from Green-winged teal in Fulton County, IL. No virus was isolated from H5N1 positive samples from Northern pintail ducks from Ottawa County, OH. In all reported incidents, sequence data indicated low path American strains in the H5N1 positive samples.

All detections listed in the table are from samples that are positive for both H5 and N1. Media reports have indicated H5 has also been detected in live markets in New Jersey as well as wild birds in northern California and Washington State.

The failure to isolate H5N1 from positive samples is cause for concern. The USDA site suggests the isolation failures were due to a lack of viable H5N1, but viability is dependent on isolation procedures and each test has a detection limit, and results indicate the sensitivity of the isolation procedure is lower than the PCR test. This detection limit may also be impacted by handling, shipping, and pooling of samples.

Dual infections may also limit isolation and dual infections are common in wild birds as indicated by the isolation of H5N3 and H6N2 from H5N1 positive samples.

An alternative approach for detecting high path H5N1 involves sequence analysis. Recombination is common between H5N1 and low path serotypes, including H5. Therefore release of the H5N1 from the earlier isolates would be useful.”

http://tinyurl.com/y4rbh4

Ruby – at 10:18

In Clean Politics, Flesh Is Pressed, Then Sanitized

WASHINGTON, Oct. 27 — Campaigns are filthy. Not only in terms of last-minute smears and dirty tricks. But also as in germs, parasites and all the bacterial unpleasantness that is spread around through so much glad-handing and flesh-pressing.

“You can’t always get to a sink to wash your hands,” said Anne Ryun, wife of Representative Jim Ryun, Republican of Kansas.

Hands would be the untidy appendages that transmit infectious disease.

http://tinyurl.com/yxxoy6

Commonground – at 10:40

Comment: Just so we all know when Ramadan ends.
http://tinyurl.com/kdqkc
During the month of Ramadan, which this year ends on October 22,……
Also this:
http://tinyurl.com/ynef47
U.S. Visa Application Goes Electronic on November 1
October 27, 2006
The U.S. Embassy in Jakarta and the U.S. Consulate General in Surabaya announced a new procedure which will provide better customer service and more efficient processing of visa applications. As of November 1, all applicants worldwide for Non-Immigrant Visas to the United States must use the Electronic Visa Application Form (EVAF) to submit their visa applications. Visa application forms filled out by hand or with a typewriter will no longer be accepted.

All applicants for Non-Immigrant visas must fill out the EVAF DS-156 form, which can be found at http://evisaforms.state.gov. After completing the form, hit the “continue” button, print out the form and bring the application (three pages plus an electronic bar code) to the visa interview.

The EVAF may be accessed by any computer with internet capability. The form is written in the English language and all answers must be in English. A complete translation of the EVAV from in Bahasa Indonesia, along with instructions on how to complete the form, can be found on the U.S. Embassy’s website at http://jakarta.usembassy.gov. The Embassy website also provides a list of Internet cafes located near the Embassy and near the Consulate General in Surabaya to assist visa applicants who do not have access to a computer in their homes or places of employment. There is no additional charge from the U.S. Government for the EVAF form.

Use of the EVAF brings many advantages. Visa applicants will save time on interview day because EVAF applications are entered into the computer system much more quickly than hand-prepared applications. Embassies and Consulates can thus process more applicants each day in a more efficient manner and provide better customer service. Use of EVAF also assists the U.S. Government’s fraud prevention efforts, thus making travel to the U.S. safer for everyone.

The Embassy encourages all Indonesians planning travel to the United States to apply for their visas at least three months in advance of the planned travel date. Indonesians with questions about the visa application process may contact the Consular Section at the Embassy in Jakarta via e-mail at jakconsul@state.gov or by fax to 021–385–7189.

Pixie – at 10:53

Rammadan ends Oct. 22, but then the big feast of Eid starts and then lasts for around 6 days. For Ramadan everybody stays home and works as usual in Muslim naions. For Eid, everyone travels back to their village of origin to celebrate the week-long holiday with their extended families. In Indonesia, they should all start heading back home (which will take a while) this weekend.

Commonground – at 11:01

Sorry in advance if this has been posted already.

Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practices of Avian Influenza, Poultry Workers, Italy

Rossella Abbate,* Gabriella Di Giuseppe,† Paolo Marinelli,* and Italo F. Angelillo* Second University of Naples, Naples, Italy; and †University of Catanzaro Magna Graecia Medical School, Catanzaro, Italy

Suggested citation for this article

Abstract
We asked Italian poultry workers about knowledge, attitudes, and practices regarding avian influenza. It was perceived to be a low occupational hazard, and wearing protective equipment and handwashing were not routine practices. Knowledge of transmission and preventive measures should be improved. Employers and health professionals should provide more effective information. More here: http://tinyurl.com/yc3cnd

cottontop – at 11:06

1918 Spanish Influenza Outbreak: THe Enemy Within www.historynet.com

No One To Care For Millions Of Americans If Bird Flu Pandemic Strikes www.newstarget.com

they also have an article entitles: flu shots are vitually worthless

Jane – at 11:11

American Public Health Association conference in Boston, Nov. 4–8. Their schedule of lectures is posted here. There’s quite a bit on pandemic. Attendees must be members or journalists with a registration badge. Abstracts are on their site, the article says. http://www.apha.org/meetings

[This session looks really good-<snip> 5091.0 Pandemic Influenza: Non-Pharmacologic Interventions

Wednesday, Nov. 8, from 10:30 a.m. to 12 p.m.

Featured presentations:

— From SARS and bioterrorism to pandemic flu, new tools and old medicine: Non-pharmaceutical interventions as a way to protect ourselves against contagious disease; David Heyman

— Ethical issues with pandemic flu; Robert J. Levine, MD

— Community engagement; Donna L. Richter, EdD, FAAHB <snip>]

[And this - 3303.0 Experiences and Exercises in Responding to Epidemics and Bioterror Events

Monday, Nov. 6, from 2:30 p.m. to 4 p.m.

Featured presentations:

— Pandemic influenza functional exercise — New Hampshire, 2005; Rachel Plotinsky, MD, Elizabeth A. Talbot, MD, Mary Ann Cooney, RN, Jose Montero, MD

— Avian overture: How pandemic training builds public health and safety partnerships; Mary Clark, JD, MPH, Kerry Dunnell, MSW, Garrett W. Simonsen, MSPS

3310.0 Planning for Pandemic Influenza: Local, State, Tribal and Federal Perspectives

Monday, Nov. 6, from 2:30 p.m. to 4 p.m.

Featured presentations:

— Planning for Pandemic Influenza: Federal Perspective; Pascale Wortley, MD, MPH

— Planning for Pandemic Influenza: State Perspective; Paul Lewis

— Planning for Pandemic Influenza: Local Perspective; Paul Etkind, DrPH, MPH

— Planning for Pandemic Influenza: A Tribal Perspective; Jim Roberts]

 http://releases.usnewswire.com/GetRelease.asp?id=75087
Commonground – at 11:29

Jane - at 11:11 - did you post this in the Conferences thread? I think it’s still around somewhere?

Blue Ridge Mountain Mom – at 12:45

Ok, folks, I have to go help a friend move today and tomorrow. I got a reprieve yesterday due to rain, but there will be no reprieve from the winds today.

http://www.library.yale.edu/Internet/latinamericanews.html#gen

Here is a link for news sources in Latin America. If anyone else has some free time, please feel free to look up some articles.

Here’s a link to a translation site from altavista. Should help you out with a language barrier. http://babelfish.altavista.com/tr

I start looking for:

gripe, gripe de pajaro, fiebre de dengue, influenza aviar, pandemia, tosa, respiratorio

That should get you started!!

Commonground – at 13:50

Pixie at 10:53 - Thanks for the heads up on the Holiday. So maybe newspapers will get back to normal this coming week.

Monotreme – at 15:20

New Jersey, USA

Agencies talk about flu pandemic

Months after the avian flu alert of 2006, there’s no sign of a feared repeat of 1918, but global health organizations remain on heightened alert. Local government and health agencies met here Friday to compare their plans, during a flu pandemic conference hosted by the Ocean County Health Department.

[snip]

In a widespread breakout, the message will be for all non-essential workers to stay home, but Miro acknowledged that will be a difficult course.

“People are obsessed with going to work and sending their kids to school,” she said.

http://tinyurl.com/un9t5

Monotreme – at 15:25

Maine, USA

House District 144 - Chamberlain v. Nass

“There’s an incredible energy crisis; we need independence,” Chamberlain emphasized. “Global warming has arrived. The avian flu pandemic will happen.” If elected, she said her background in science would be useful in solving these problems.

http://tinyurl.com/yyv8nx


I don’t mean this to be political post, but this is the first time I have seen a candidate mention pandemic flu as an issue. I wish more candidates of both parties would mention this and explain what they would do about it if elected.

Monotreme – at 15:29

Alabama, USA

State’s delayed vaccines to get here by mid to late November

“The influenza vaccine system in the United States does not work,” Williamson said. “We do not produce enough vaccine early enough to get to everyone when they want a shot. This country is not equipped to deal with avian flu if it ever made the jump from birds to people. It’s not even equipped to handle a pandemic of a more typical flu.”

[snip]

Williamson wants the federal government to invest in research for a better way to make flu vaccine and find a long-lasting vaccine similar to vaccine for measles or polio.

“The problem is not just us. It’s widespread,” Williamson said of this year’s problems.

http://tinyurl.com/torpn

Monotreme – at 15:31

Virginia, USA

Local Residents Get Flu Shots, Help Prepare For Pandemic

Residents had an opportunity to receive free flu shots Friday, while helping local fire and rescue personnel simulate what they would do should an avian flu pandemic break out.

One by one, vehicles pulled into army-green first-aid tents at the Rockingham County Fairgrounds. Drivers rolled down their windows and pulled up their sleeves, and nurses from the health department injected them with flu shots.

[snip]

The simulation was set up systematically to give local rescue personnel an opportunity to train for a real flu pandemic.

Rescue workers gave shots as they would in the case of a pandemic that would require them to give inoculations or antiviral drugs to the county’s population, Larsen said. Only in this case, the shots were standard flu shots.

http://tinyurl.com/yzbt5x

Klatu – at 18:44

Fujian H5N1 Sequences in China

Recombinomics Commentary October 27, 2006

“Hong Kong University has released H5N1 sequences from 404 isolates in China.  The isolates are from a number of provinces and locations in southern China, including Hong Kong, Shantou, and Fujian, Yunnan, Hunan, Guiyang, Guangxi province. 

 Most isolates are from ducks and geese, but many wild birds from Hong Kong (common magpie, crow, large-billed crow, white-backed munia, munia, Japanese white-eye, little egret, crested myna, and robin).

….the vast majority also have the novel Fujian cleavage site.

The Fujian HA cleavages site was first reported in 2005 in A/duck/Fujian/1734/05(H5N1).  As noted previously, all human sequences from China in 2005 and 2006 were the Fujian strain, as were the wild bird sequences in Hong Kong.

Although the vast majority of the sequences are the Fujian strain, there is considerable heterogeneity, increasing pandemic concerns.  Analysis is somewhat hampered by a lack of full sequences in the database.

The current sequences significantly advance the understanding of H5N1 evolution in China, which enhances the full sequences from northern China, released earlier this month.  Those sequences also had clear-cut evidence of recombination, which was confirmed with full sequences of all eight gene segments.

-excerpts

http://tinyurl.com/ym45q6


“Behold, I send you out as sheep in the midst of wolves; so be wise as serpents and innocent as doves.”

Klatu – at 18:46
Klatu – at 20:11

Vietnman: 1mil Tamiflu tablets prepared for bird flu prevention

23/10/2006

VietNamNet Bridge (image)

Producing Tamiflu at a factory of Roche.

‘’‘VietNamNet Bride - The Ministry of Health (MoH) last Friday announced it had already prepared 1 million Tamiflu tablets and 100 tonnes of Chloramin B to prevent avian influenza.   A representative of MoH confirmed that the ministry had passed a plan to ensure logistics for H5N1 flu prevention in humans in the coming time.   Apart from the above drug and chemical, the MoH has also amassed 1,000 respiratory machines, 500,000 sets of on-the-job protection clothing, 500,000 special comforters, 500,000 sets of gloves and 1,000 sprayers of all kinds.’‘’   Vietnam has not detected any new case of H5N1 patient in the past many months. The Central Epidemic Prevention Institute has tested 400 blood samples collected from local people in 12 areas at high risk of avian influenza and all samples were negative for H5N1 virus.   Last September, Vietnam reported seven serious pneumonia cases caused by viruses, but none by H5N1.”

http://tinyurl.com/y33kbq

Blue Ridge Mountain Mom – at 21:02

bump

anonymous – at 22:16

Israel

Hi, y’all! I’ve been searching for bird flu news and found an article in the Clarin News out of Buenos Aires, Argentina. It’s a basic article about bird flu, and it is dated September 22, 2006.

The article is not what caught my attention. It was the picture that showed dead birds being gathered in Israel. I searched the news report for that day and found the post at 21:17 for the $13 Million grant from the US approved by the world bank. URL for the article about the world bank http://tinyurl.com/zo67w

Here is the link for the article from the Clarin News. http://tinyurl.com/ygnqeg

Blue Ridge Mountain Mom – at 22:18

That was me. I cleared my cookies!

Average Concerned Mom – at 22:31

It’s not a news report but the New York Times today had an editorial on Pandemic Flu. I thought it was strongly worded — for the NYT.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/28/opinion/28sat4.html

The World Health Organization’s new plan for ramping up the production of flu vaccine is a measure of how unprepared the world is to cope with an onslaught of pandemic influenza. The plan, conceived by a group of more than 120 experts, lays out a sensible path toward vaccine sufficiency— but it will take years to complete and cost up to $10 billion.

There are no signs yet that the influenza strain causing the greatest concern — a virulent form of avian flu — is ready to sweep through human populations. So far it has infected only 256 people in 10 countries — mostly people in close contact with chickens in Asia — but the highly lethal pathogen has killed some 60 percent of those.

Fortunately, it has not yet developed the ability to spread easily from one person to another, the critical transition for unleashing a pandemic. But if this strain or another does, it will move so rapidly there will be little chance of containing it — unless we start preparing now.

This week, the W.H.O. warned that if a flu pandemic were to occur, the global vaccine supply would fall several billion doses short. It recommended three overlapping responses: increasing the use of vaccines in the normal flu season so that manufacturers are encouraged to expand capacity; new techniques to raise production yields; and development of more potent vaccines that could provide broad and long-lasting immunity.

The price tag would be $3 billion to $10 billion for a global effort that might yield results in three to five years, provided action started now. The Bush administration’s pledge of $10 million to W.H.O. to help other countries develop vaccines and manufacturing capacity is prompt but woefully short.

The administration has also invested substantially in vaccine research, including $1 billion to develop new cell-based technologies that would allow rapid expansion of production in an emergency. Although those investments are primarily for our own benefit, the knowledge generated is likely to help others around the world.

Still, both the American and global efforts ought to be intensified. The administration’s goal of being able to make enough vaccine quickly to protect all Americans is also probably four to five years away. Neither America nor the rest of the world is yet ready to handle a worst-case pandemic.

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Page last modified on October 28, 2006, at 10:31 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Glaxo Smith Klein Commercial

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Glaxo Smith Klein Commercial

28 October 2006

dirt – at 21:00

I just saw a GSK commercial talking about their effort to develop a BF vaccine. WOW! This is the first time I have seen this commercial - it sent a chill up me spine.

Dennis in Colorado – at 21:08

Thread already in progress:
http://www.fluwikie2.com/pmwiki.php?n=Forum.SKGBirdFluVaxCommercial

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.GlaxoSmithKleinCommercial
Page last modified on October 28, 2006, at 09:08 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Lets Plan for Civilization Busted

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Lets Plan for Civilization Busted

21 October 2006

ColdClimatePrepperat 20:30

“Civilization Buster” is a phrase we all pass around here, but we really don’t actually talk about much. It seems like the idea is so frightening, even to us preppers, that we can’t talk about it, can’t quite imagine it, and are afraid to even begin to plan strategies for dealing with it.

Being a New Englander, folks who tend to be pretty self reliant and community oriented, I’m actually starting to imagine some scenarios where groups of people could get together and be OK. Maybe we can avoid the Mad Max world. Maybe, if we think about this ahead of time, there will be enough people who have visualized something better.

Sure, I think we will need to plan for breakdown of law and order, food shortages, no electricity, having to purify our water, heating with wood and so forth. But humans survived for tens of thousands of years without any of these things and did just fine. Panic is our worst enemy as it will lead mostly to irrational behaviors. Our brains are what have gotten us here as a species. Let’s use them.

What exactly might happen if PF is a “civilization buster”. We have talked about loss of electricity and food shortages and a bit about the water issue, but we have not talked much about how to handle social breakdown. Can we flesh this out some more? Lets plan strategies to mitigate all this, starting with how we cope with a break down in law and order.

Anyone have ideas?

Annon for this post – at 21:02

In the town of 15k where I live there was discussion within the PD to plan for willing CCW (concealed weapon permit) holders to be deputized. Rational is that these people have undergone FBI background checks and have demonstrated a minimum competancy with their handgun. This was inside info from the PD. Discussion about whether this would be done by the sherrif or PD. Still up in the air. We are a one road in-one road out town.

Monotreme – at 21:24

Annon,

In Arkansas, they are discussing this openly:

Arkansas County Sheriff Allen Cheek agreed. The Sheriff’s Department has “10 fulltime deputies right now. If a pandemic hits here, I feel sure I will have to deputize some people — maybe a lot of people. Those people are going to need training.”

Cheek said he would start compiling a list of potential deputies and a list of the training courses they would need this week.

From the: De Witt Era- Enterprise
October 18, 2006.

EOD – at 22:33

Smaller ruraL communities should be better able to deal with all this than large cities, at which point would they be too small to survive though?

Dark Horse – at 22:37

In parts of Savannah as well. We heard a presentation by a CDC doctor entitled “Planning for a severe pandemic.”

BeWellat 22:39

Annon for this post - at 21:02

Hmm - are you in rural OR, by any chance? I live in a valley with one main town, pop. 17K, one road in/one road out. But there isn’t a real PD here.

Monotreme – at 22:58

EOD – at 22:33

Smaller ruraL communities should be better able to deal with all this than large cities, at which point would they be too small to survive though?

That’s a good question. I think it depends on how self-sufficient a community can be. Is there sufficient fresh water and tillable soil in close proximity to the city/town to support the entire population? Is there a source of electricity that will remain operational? Is there a hospital that is well-prepared? Are there stockpiles of antibiotics and other basic medical supplies?

Initial suvival will depend on food and water, but longer term, access to power and medical care will be essential. Without OB-GYNs and antibiotics, pregnant women and small children will die in droves. A small coummunity will then slowly die out.

The best place to be will be in the biggest city that is able to preserve its critical infrastructure and essential personnel. I don’t know what for sure what size that is.

Monotreme – at 23:02

Dark Horse – at 22:37

Did the CDC doc define “severe”? What were they assuming would be the attack rate and the case fatality rate?

kimdem – at 23:07

I worry more from the law enforcement background. If we thought people behaved badly in Katrina, what how are they going to react to seeing all the death and destruction? I’ve had several conversations with other law enforcement officers who are prepared to defend theirs to the death. But what if it is your neighbor pounding on your door? I’m sure we will have groups who get together to live and help each other just a we will have groups who band together to take what the other have. I think a group survival will depend on having those who will work together be it growing food, to those to protect their ‘communities’ supplies. The Govt couldn’t help with Katrina which only afect less than 5% of the states, let alone a worldwide situation. If it happens may God be with all of us here.

Birdie Kate – at 23:22

I think we are screwed. I have had this conversation with a few other people and that is their concensus also.

We have 14,000 people and 22 LEO. One main road in and one out but many smaller back roads.

Bordering two maybe three cities of 80,000 to 100,000. Known gang activity.

I think arming citizens is a good call. I also think local fish and game. I am not sure if the PD has a copy of all gun owners as you don’t need a license for personal use (I think).

Regular folk, DGI, will never believe it if you tell them they have to defend themselves. Heck they don’t even think the pandemic is real

Gary Near Death Valley – at 23:32

Does it matter what really the size of the city, town or community is,,,,,,,is if it gets so bad that the grid falls, no food deliverys, death rate above 10 or 20% of the population,,,,,,it will be a Mad Max world,,,,filled with elderly people and youngsters. Not a great way to build a sandwich

22 October 2006

anonymous – at 00:24

Birdie Kate – at 23:22 said “I think arming citizens is a good call. I also think local fish and game.”

Just what we need, fish, deer, and raccoons shooting at us.

That’s Just Ducky! – at 00:38

anonymous – at 00:24

LOL!

Dude – at 00:40

People who venture forth with guns in their hands will die in short order. Near my house, if you are armed and minding your own business, you will be watched and let alone to pass. Draw that gun and aim it at an unarmed person and (if not in self defense) you will be killed for lawless behavior on the spot. The world will not have a lot of time to figure things out…so be polite and be careful. It will be up to neighborhoods to protect each other. If gangs out and about they will die of the bird flu. It does not matter if their motives are simply feeding a starving family or taking advantage of anyone they can get the drop on. The appearance of a person with a firearm aimed at my neighbor who is in their home is enough for a long range scope shot for them. But an unarmed/armed person standing in the street yelling that they need help will receive a handout from me - as long as it lasts. It all depends on how you choose to approach the solution to a problem. I will give what I can and I will not suffer threats to life. Sorry to be so graphic. I personally don’t think that it will come to a world like that. I think people will mostly just die in quiet, desperate, isolation…afraid to move.

What about a post pandemic world? I hope we will have a vaccine and a great job market and a better understanding of living in harmony with nature. It is foolish to predict that all this infrastructure will be destroyed by a virus. If it gets destroyed it will be by the hands of people. It will also be in the hands of people to stop this behavior. There are a lot of good people in the world, ordinary folk, who will be your new best friends. We will be depending on each other as never before. We will be working to rebuild and educate as never before. We will not insult scientist, intellectuals, and people who know how to get things done. We must be less tolerant of all “isms” that would enslave you to ignorance and unlimited growth. Corporate globalism will be discredited as a tool of corporate greed, that promised much, but gave no security for life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. If we don’t learn to see past the speeches, lies and disinformation in this world and take our civic responsibility to find out the truth, vote, and volunteer to make this world a better place after a panflu, then there is no hope for the USA. We have been given in the blood, inspiration, and the genius of our forefathers in the United States an opportunity that is fast slipping past us. We have not been good stewards of our heritage, we have been hedonists. We are too stupid, too lazy, too self indulgent and too sure of ourselves. Maybe this is our generations wake up call? Worldwide, we have too many children. We have too many people. In a post pandemic world some of these most basics of harmonies in an ecosystem will have been addressed by this planet’s ecosystem. I sincerely hope that we can learn from this. If we do not learn moderation in all things, we will never survive as a species.

That’s Just Ducky! – at 00:49

Dude – at 00:40

Well, why don’t you tell us what you *really* think! Just kidding; that was very insightful, thank you.

Dude – at 01:00

That’s Just Ducky! – at 00:49

Hey, I am shy…grin.

TY

Prepping Gal – at 13:21

I see difficult times should the pandemic happen but what I don’t see is total chaos. If only 5% of the people are prepped that means 95% are all in the same situation. Imagine that number for a minute. Now take countries like India, China or Indonesia where they have had to endure severe hardships. They’ve managed to exist or at least 95% have even if the lifestyle is back to the basics. Their culture has prepared them better than North Americans who most would admit are living “in the moment” and not thinking about tomorrow. But they will learn quickly. This is a continent that has seem more change in the past 100 years than probably any other.

We may not have what we want but I do believe with 95% struggling to stay alive, fed and housed 99% of those not killed by the flu will thrive. We have to believe in one another or we will fear each other. Isolated incidents will happen but we must realize the risk is there no matter what we do and its always been there. I think fear will kill more than the disease or violence.

LMWatBullRunat 14:00

It may be odd for an engineer to suggest this, but the basic essential for civilization is the rule of law. The basic essential for high-tech industrial civilization is recognition of and ironclad respect for individual rights, especially property rights. In short, what we will need most after a collapse of civilization are good philosophers and ethicists.

The present decline of philosophy, the most important subject there is, is one major reason why we find ourselves in this fix.

LMWatBullRunat 14:00

It may be odd for an engineer to suggest this, but the basic essential for civilization is the rule of law. The basic essential for high-tech industrial civilization is recognition of and ironclad respect for individual rights, especially property rights. In short, what we will need most after a collapse of civilization are good philosophers and ethicists.

The present decline of philosophy, the most important subject there is, is one major reason why we find ourselves in this fix.

diana – at 14:26

It won’t depend on us or our ideals or ideas.

diana – at 14:32

Saw “Marie Antionette “ the movie,yesterday. While it stopped at the King Queen and their children leaving Versailles to flee, we all know what happened in the French Revolution. There were some idealists, and there was the terror. The Russians had a whack at it and look what happened. The Chinese ditto. I’m afraid human nature is not perfectable to that degree. We will muddle along if it turns worse case. I’m a cynic in that respect. Otherwise am optimistic that it won’t fall apart at the seams. The center will hold.

LMWatBullRunat 22:58

Diana-

Respectfully, I disagree. The center will not hold because there are no ideals to hold onto. Lack of ideas and ideals will be our undoing. What will hold are those isolated locations where people hold those ideals.

Bird Guano – at 23:22

The USA has no congruent center any longer.

It’s becoming Balkanized to a high degree socioeconomically and culturally.

I don’t believe the center will hold in a catastrophic event because of this Balkanization.

And I’m planning accordingly.

23 October 2006

LMWatbullRunat 10:21

Robert Heinlein saw this coming and predicted it- see his novel “Friday” one of the few late-in-life books of his I really liked.

Green Mom – at 10:49

Just read the headlines, anyday, if you can stand it.

Every other week there’s a school shooting though why we even have school now is beyond me because kids are not learning anything. If they express an interest in learning they are mocked and teased, often by their “teachers.” Good teachers are being driven out because the the riduculous testing system. If they survive school, children are at an ever increasing risk of being abused or molested. Yeah, they have “stranger-danger” programs-what a joke! Its not strangers! Its clergymen, estranged parents, bus drivers, even politicians. People who are supposed to be looking after the kids.

Our food is unhealthy and often contaminated. The water is contaiminated, the air is contaiminated. Mothers’ breast milk is contaiminated.

Our country is supposivily at war though no one is quite sure who the enemy is or even why we’re fighting, just that a lost of good brave people are dying for a political whim.

How many people can put a meal on the table without buying something allready pre-cooked?

How many are debt free?

How many know their cultural/regional/ancestrial/ethnic heritage?

How many can or do care for their elderly/sick/children by themselves in their homes?

I’m thinking our civilization is allready busted.

EnoughAlreadyat 11:06

Monotreme – at 22:58

Have you read the Preparedness Response Guide thread?

And, if small isolated areas couldn’t survive… how do you explain the growth of the USA? (Most of my relatives, prior to my generation, were delivered at home in the middle of the remote Oklahoma or Tennessee foothills.) Even today, many of the people in larger cities have migrated from smaller populated areas. I think anyplace or anybody that is able to maintain “any sort of” critical infrastructure will stand a better chance of survival. There will be challenges on every level, in every situation. Another example… last years hurricanes. Difference in cities and rural areas handling of the aftermath is very diverse. It didn’t have as much to do with “size” as it had to do with leadership and community comaradity. You can also “see” this in historical examples from various wars across the globe… how people, communities, countries “made it work” in very extreme circumstances.

Medical Maven – at 11:15

In times that are dire give me a lucky, charismatic leader, and I will show you a community that survives. Most people are followers, and they become even more so when TSHTF, (IF they have somebody who can inspire them and lead them). Some of us here on this site may have to take up that mantle whether we want to or not.

EnoughAlreadyat 11:45

MM… I think we already are! ;) I know, I know… when TSHTF.

diana – at 12:25

I agree with Green Mom in many respects, and with others on various points. However,whatever has happened, and I admit I am continually shocked by the difference between our ideal U.S. and what has been happening I feel that there are people who will pull us through it. Perhaps they are minor figures now. All systems are corrupted to one degree or another. I used to have a romanticized view of Tibet. Then I read up on it and was shocked. The elite literaly still had serfdom in place. It was similar to medeival times. After their flight The CIA funded both the Dalai Lama and the people who followed him out of Tibet. They were the elite, the priveledged. While China has done dreadful things in Tibet, it was no worse than what they did to their own., and monstrous things happened under both systems.Wherever there are people there are inequities. All people are not created equal, Even the northern Scandinavian countries who seem to have pulled it off have major problems with immigrants. Without a pandemic we are still pulled in every direction. All of us with ideals will follow them as best we can .Yesterday I saw “Queen “ with Helen Mirren. Elizabeth 11 functioned perfectly in her role as Queen. She thought she understood the English people. She followed the rules and she is an expert on protocol but the people forced her to show what they considered honor due to the dead, a flawed woman who had touched their hearts. It must have been humiliating to be humbled. I think all our leaders need to be humbled every now and again. Nature is humbling us. Some here are activists, others influence with the force of their personalities, to what degree is debatable. Only time will show what effect anyone has had on the world around them, and only time will reveal what nature has in store for us.

24 October 2006

Madamspinner – at 00:27

LMWatBullRun – at 14:00 “ In short, what we will need most after a collapse of civilization are good philosophers and ethicists. “

I tend to disagree with this. Look back at the Pilgrams for example. They took people that were farmers, doctors, bankers, carpenters, shopkeepers, tailors, clergy, blacksmiths, shoe & harness makers; with them, to start the Colonies….people with the skills to start over.

Pardon my saying so; but Philosophers & Ethicists, does not a full table make.

   We would need farmers, machanics, doctors, nurses, electrical engineers, linemen, water people, law enforcement people, etc…to get our collective hienies back in gear, & back on the Grid of the Surviving. 

I’ll take a farmer over a Philosopher anyday.

Oremus – at 01:17

Anyone can be a Philosopher, just down a few cold ones.

Green Mom – at 08:41

We need folks like Gene Logdson and Wendel Berry-both qualify as Farmers AND philosophers!

Medical Maven – at 09:30

LMWattBullRun has it right. You have to have a solid ethical base for the community at large in order to augment the “law and order” component of your society. All of the policeman in the world will not help a city that is full of amoral, chaotic people.

And before any productive activity can be achieved, whether it be the growing of food or commerce in general, you have to have law and order. It is senseless to engage in such activities before that conditon is created (law and order).

The shamans in ancient cultures were critical to the survival of their people. And the pilgrims came over to America for religious freedom. How long would they have lasted without their “philosophy” (religion)? You need spiritual leaders, the iron hand of the law, and an agreed set of principles when times get very, very tough.

There had better be some wholesale conversions to some sane philosophy when TSHTF.

Pixie – at 09:46

Medical Maven - at 9:30:

While it is true that the first immmigrants to this country came looking for the freedom to follow their beliefs that they were denied elsewhere, they needed help from practical men who were not spiritual leaders, but military leaders, to help get them out of the messes they enountered and sometimes made for themselves.

In Jamestown, the immigrants made quite a big mess of things and it was John Smith, a strong personality who had spent part of the voyage over in leg irons, that got them out of it with his extensive background in military organization and acumen.

In Plymouth, it was Miles Standish, who was not one of the “Saints” or Puritans, as we call them, but instead was one of the “Strangers,” a professional soldier who was hired in Holland (where he had been fighting and had happened to meet some of the Separatists). His leadership was a key factor in the survival of Plymouth Colony. Coincidentally, when the Pilgrims got terribly ill with mystery illnesses, pneumonia, and TB, Miles Standish was one of the only people who never got sick.

Medical Maven – at 09:54

Pixie-Oftentimes the “iron hand of the law” and the “spiritual elite” are mutually exclusive. But you have got to have both for a community that can survive desperate times. Sometimes I think that maybe all that separated us from the Neanderthals was our propensity for spirituality. If there is something greater than yourself, you can survive those who are contained WITHIN themselves.

lugon – at 10:23

Local currencies might both prevent and mitigate disruption:

Scaredy Cat – at 10:44

Not that we don’t need law and order and ethics (although morality can certainly exist in the absence of religious beliefs), but, personally, I’m hoping to avoid both the “iron hand of the law” and the “spiritual elite.” When either group inherits too much power (unchecked power), their agents are prone to corruption and brutality. They scare the hell out of me.

Medical Maven – at 10:58

Scaredy Cat at 10:44-I understand where you are coming from. But in the lesser of two evils (absent a representative republic with checks and balances) I will take my chances with the “law and order” crowd over the chaos that anarchy breeds.

And you have to pair morality with government in some manner in order to avoid an evil tyranny. There are such things as benevolent monarchies though they seldom outlast individual kings, but that may be the best we can hope for in the near to medium term.

Scaredy Cat – at 11:27

Medical Maven at 10:58 -

Hmm, yeah, I’d probably take my chances with the “law and order” crowd if chaos is the only alternative. I’m still hoping (perhaps vainly) to avoid both.

Also, while I wholeheartedly agree that “you have to pair morality with government in some manner in order to avoid an evil tyranny,” I just don’t think we necessarily need the “spiritual elite” to make this happen.

LMWatBullRunat 11:35

I agree that philosophy and ethics are not sufficient to provide for survival of civilization, but they ARE critical necessities. It may well be that the Founders of the Reborn Republic will be those skilled both in the trades and in the science of ideas, as Adams, Franklin and Jefferson were.

A certain grounding in physical reality seems to be required in order to have effective philosophy, witness Eric Hoffer, who was a longshoreman before he published “the True Believer”, or Ben Franklin, who was a printer and experimenter. John Adams was a farmer, as was Jefferson, who was also an architect and builder. One of the differences between 1800′s USA and today’s USA is that the average farmer or journeyman tradesman could discuss the philosophy of government, understood the philosophical underpinnings of the Revolution, and was vitally interested in their government.

One of the reasons, in my judgment, that we are in our present position, is that vanishingly few people today are interested in these things. Further, the science of ideas is in wide disrepute, and most people disparage everything to do with ideas; they stick to concretes wherever possible. Philosophy is the foundation of freedom. It’s not democracy per se that makes freedom possible. What makes freedom an enduring institution is a populace educated in the philosophy essential to support it, and which actively teaches and debates those ideas. Lacking that, freedom is doomed.

For those interested in contemplating the aftermath of a collapse of civilization I commend to your attention Steve Stirling’s “Dies the Fire” series.

Medical Maven – at 11:43

Scaredy Cat, most people are followers, and they need direction, especially in desperate times. A spiritual elite will rise to the occasion just as some pragmatic leader or oligarchy will rise to the occasion. These two groups will most certainly not be the “status quo” before panflu. It will be a new regime, one adapted to the radically changed conditions. “Position power” will matter little in such conditions, the fluff and the buffer will be gone. RESULTS will be required each and every day.

Scaredy Cat – at 12:01

LMW at 11:35 - Well said, and for the most part, I agree with what you say.

MM, Darn. I just spent 10 minutes writing a paragraph on the “spiritual elite,” but then decided not to post it. Now I don’t have much time. Anyway, what I was trying to say (in my disappeared paragraph) is that a problem with the “spiritual elite” is that you (generic “you”) have no way of knowing what they truly believe. Some of them (and some of those who use them as political props) are terribly corrupt, or powerfully persuasive con artists, so you (generic again) ought to be careful and judge them not by words, but by behavior.

Again, and I know I’m having difficulty articulating it, I think my main problem is that a “moral leader” doesn’t necessarily have to be a “spiritual leader.”

Medical Maven – at 12:18

Scaredy Cat-Don’t get hung up on “hypocrisy”, that will always be with us. Hypocrisy is not an excuse for eschewing moral standards. And whether you have a moral leader or a spiritual leader both promote moral standards and both types of leaders are just as liable to fall prey to hypocrisy. But the community has to have high, inculcated goals of behavior in order to have any hope of maintaining order DURING DESPERATE TIMES.

It is the early behavior modification, the societal sanctions for transgressing that behavior, and the high expectations for behavior that are important.

And, sad to say, most of Western Civilization has fallen down these past few decades on all of the above requirements.

diana – at 13:00

What all of you want is never what we get. The people who will emerge as our leaders are in place. Not much to choose from on the National level. Hopefully there will be newcomers in place on the local level who have character and the necessary charisma to win elective office.

LMWatBullRunat 13:35

Diana-

With utmost respect, I point out that your views of a path forward appear to me to be constrained by your present paradigm.

Consider- If there is a partial or total collapse of civilization, there will be no national media; there will be no national travel. There will likely be no single nation. Going 15 miles into town will become an all-day trip by foot. Leadership will be completely local. Democracy may or may not be the means by which leaders are selected. Some may self-appoint, some may be elected by a warm-body electorate, while other locations may place a constraint on exercise of the franchise. Many other places will not have any sort of coherent government at all. There will be no national organization of any sort; there will likely be very limited state organization, and only limited county-wide organization.

Virtually all of the organization will be on a neighborhood basis, say within 15 minutes walking distance. In any case, I agree with you that such local politics will depend to a large extent on the integrity and character of the persons involved.

Now, in the event of a general collapse of the economy and of government I can guarantee that individual rights will be upheld for everyone within 700 yards of my position as long as I am breathing. That comes before everything else. That is exactly what I want and I will have it. If I have to cope with a pandemic and the collapse of civilization, so be it, but if I do have to pay that price, I will ensure that freedom survives. I suspect that others here have similar intentions and capabilities.

EOD – at 13:43

Oremus - LMAO, truer words were never said. I think the big difference in being self sufficient is that our ancestors grew up that way, generation after generation all knew those basic survival skills. Which is funny in itself, today we think of those things as survival skills, they didn’t really THINK about them at all, it was just part & parcel of life. Today, we have third generation people who only know to get food at KFC or Mickey D’s. Part of my work is overseeing the large food pantry we operate, we give out about 1100 lbs of food a day, helping around 500 families per month. We used to automatically give out such things as rice & dried beans but now let those be items of choice. One day I received a phone call from a lady who was very angry that we had given her “bad beans”. I asked what was wrong with them and she said, “I cooked them all day long and they had never softened up & ended up throwing them out.” I asked her how she had cooked them? “Well, I put them in a pan with a little oil and cooked them, I fried them for hours and all they did was burn.” This is very typical of people in the inner cities, and especially those who have lived depending upon others to support & help them. After that I started a program of basic cooking classes for the community and every new group/class is the same, many literally do not know how to boil water or cook anything from scratch. I don’t even want to think about their knowledge and skills in growing their own food, I can well picture many opening a can of corn and planting the kernels. And there will not be time for them to learn from their mistakes.

And if you think things got bad after Katrina, imagine that multiplied across the whole country and with people who on their 3rd day of no food realize that NO ONE is coming to the rescue.

LMWatBullRunat 14:07

EOD-

Concur. Which is why I think that if the grid goes down in a big city there will be mass chaos, and why I am prepared to deal with starving panicked looters. But there is much more to it.

We need to be thinking a bit further ahead than that. Horrible as the start of a pandemic may be, how much worse if we fail to rebuild better than before afterwards? Each person who sees this threat as real must ask “Am I willing to just give up? Am I willing to prepare myself not just for the event but the aftermath?” That is where the difference will be made if there is a collapse; that is where future generations will be shaped, in the knowledge of honor and ethics, in the IDEALS that you teach and hand down.

In today’s world, the individual means little.

In the aftermath of a very severe pandemic, when many of the current paradigms have been utterly shattered, each person has the potential to profoundly reshape the world they live in. The collapse of civilization will be fertile soil for the growth of ideas, new and old alike. What ideas will grow in that soil? What memes will we pass down? How will you shape the world around you?

Make no mistake, every person reading these words will, either consciously or unconsciously, shape the aftermath of a pandemic. Medical Maven is right, only those ideas which are inculcated bone-deep will survive the stress of a very severe pandemic. We each need to think about what those ideas and ideals are going to be. They will be the foundation of everything else.

diana – at 14:39

While I am a student of the past, I find Revolutions interesting only in retrospective analysis. I don’t believe it will all break down. I think local policies will be the ones that will keep us going. I don’t buy into a complete collapse.I don’t see the massive breakdown that occured after the Russian Revolution, or even after any major war in a wartorn nation..Cities decay and struggle without pandemics. Economies fail, depressions happen.Perhaps I’m foolish. I think America is stronger and more resilient than you think it is. I hope I am right, not because I like to be right, but for all our sakes.

LMWatBullRunat 14:57

Diana-

How, exactly, are local policies going to change the situation we face with regard to the power transmission grid? Is each locality going to purchase local generating capacity to match that currently in use?

Is local policy going to require that each supermarket chain keep a local warehouse with 3 months supply of groceries?

Is local policy going to prevent the next town upriver from dumping untreated raw sewage into your drinking water intake when the power fails, or the plant operators are sick or have died?

Again, with respect, the fact that past societies were resilient has nothing to do with whether THIS culture and THIS society are resilient. It is true that folks living in the country are much more self-sufficient even today, but that is only a tiny fraction of the total population now; more than 90% of the US lives in urban or suburban areas. I fear that you are being unduly optimistic, but perhaps I am missing something. Why do you think that, say Detroit, will not collapse if the power fails for say, a month?

Kathy in FL – at 15:11

EOD – at 13:43

A lot of the problem from the societal point, in my opinion, is that most people in the Western world do not understand the ignorance that still exists in our own back yards.

I mean ignorance as a lack of knowledge and not as an insult.

Our family business in property management and they are primarily in the low-income areas/range for housing. We work with a lot of public assistance programs.

The ignorance goes so far as to be, at times, ingrained and intentional. There are actually people in the system that KNOW that if they do well in school, further their education, make an effort … they could rise above their current level of living … and then refuse to do so because it would mean the end of receiving financial assistance. They are products of “the system” and thrive on “the system” and they panic when “the system” is threatened with change. Some of them even get violent when they are expected to begin paying a portion of their rent or their other subsidies are cut.

The things I’ve seen over the past decade in this business is what really opened my eyes and matured me as no other life lessons ever have.

If that entitlement mentality, ignorance - both willful and otherwise, and social immorality is not curbed then a pandemic of massive proportions will be the least of the things that bring civilization to a halt.

And how many who make it through a pandemic will suddenly expect to pick up where they left off afterwards … or get the same financial parachute that people are getting today? We cannot go back to the same way of doing things.

It may seem brutal but socially we need to think about providing work for those who refuse to find it for themselves … “no work, no subsidy.” That there are real and concrete consequences to certain choices.

Accountability and responsibility need to be brought back to the forefront … and not passed off if there are “excuses” why someone turned out like they did.

Kathy in FL – at 15:13

My post sounded a little “us/them” … but that isn’t how I meant it. I mean we all need to live with the idea of individual accountability and responsibility. No one should get off. And we should all have to suffer the consequences of our choices and not have them mitigated by circumstance and parentage.

diana – at 15:59

Oh I believe Detroit would collapse. My little town? We go back a few hundred years, might be it will slip back to having an outhouse in the back yard, wells drilled. I’ve listened to the old timers talk. In a place like this we could revert to pre grid times. There is a grittier type here in this town. The old timers were Italian immigrants who still recall being happy to have a slice of bread and lard for a meal. Or a can of beans. They and their grandchildren remember what it was like. If they tell me, don’t you think they have told their children and grandchildren? The middle class would find it more difficult. We also have a lot of immigrants from Central America and Mexico. They are a hardier bunch than we. They make do on very little because they send most of what they earn to Mexico. The middle class, they would have more of a problem. Larger cities and places like NYC will be Bedlams.Personally, I’ve missed a few meals in my day, though my accomadations in the main have been better than most. I have lived in a cold water flat with no heat, so I know what that is like. I know I could make do.

Thats Just Ducky – at 16:07

I think the likely scenario is that there won’t be too many of the “someone owes me a living” folks who will survive the next pandemic and the aftermath.

Grace RN – at 16:10

I find the best part in having grown up very poor, very cold and hungry (tho’ you wouldn’t think that to see me now!) is that I KNOW I can survive on very little. Because I have done it before.

Improvise. Adapt. Overcome.

Survive.

Thats Just Ducky – at 16:20

Grace RN – at 16:10

Yes, that which doesn’t kill us makes us stronger.

diana – at 16:27

Ours is a small village if you come down to it. I can easily walk on foot from one end to the other. People still walk here for pleasure. There are horses around, there are wagons and traps. There are cows, sheep, deer abound. I doubt that we will starve. We might end up a lot leaner from eating less and walking. WE have a fair number of farms that grow apples and produce. I guess I am undully optimistic, I truly do not believe civilization will collapse around our ears. Parts of this country would have severe problems. Entitlement is rife, and it will be a period of unrest for those who expect everything to be handed to them. I can’t say I feel uneasy about the future. I simply will wait and see. Noone is going to ask me how to re-organize anything.

Hillbilly Bill – at 16:35

I have a barn full of hand tools, but I am hoping I don’t have to go back to using them.

2beans – at 16:38

I just want to point out that much of the looting after the hurricane, from what I’ve read, wasn’t for the purposes of survival or comfort. Much of it was purely destructive. Anyone can understand stealing shoes or food. Some items - big screen TVs - make no sense. In many places the premises were destroyed and large deposits of human waste strategically placed as “statements”.

diana – at 16:39

As far as Detroit, don’t they have Devils nite on Oct 30 when they burn up sections of town. I always thought Detroit would go up in smoke eventually, and not from a Pandemic.

Pixie – at 16:41

LMWatBullRun - at 11:35 “One of the differences between 1800Œs USA and todayfs USA is that the average farmer or journeyman tradesman could discuss the philosophy of government, understood the philosophical underpinnings of the Revolution, and was vitally interested in their government.”

Funny you should mention that - I was teaching a class on literature to some middle schoolers this morning when that very subject came up. Usually we do Beowulf, Chaucer, Dante, etc. But we found ourselves veering off and talking today about how modern Americans do not have the powers of concentration that used to be more common (adults and kids alike) and how difficult they find it to follow complex speech or arguments. I brought up the subject of “The Federalist Papers,” and told them I’d bring in copies of the first two pages of Number 1 next week, to see if they can understand it. Then, I suggested, they might want to pass it around to the adults in their lives and see if they can tell them what it says. I’ll bet lunch that they can’t.

I explained to the kids that “The Federalist Papers” was written for the average American farmer and was a huge bestseller in its day. But the average farmer was a philosopher/farmer, as you point out LMWatBullRun, fully able to understand the tract’s arguments, and ready to engage in serious and vibrant debate on the vital issues of his time.

Where I live, I am surrounded by 200 year-old houses and farmsteads that undoubtedly owned copies fo the Federalist Papers when they first came off the presses. The owners of those homes understood and discussed the ideas contained within them, and discussed those ideas with their neighbors. Today, the owners of those same houses would be hard pressed to do the same.

I’m not one who thinks that civilization will disappear under the stress of pandemic flu, but sometimes I have to admit that I do wonder. My family visited the Smithsonian a few months ago and they had a very interesting exhibit on the history one particular house and the various families had lived in it over the last 200+ years. The first family, living there without any modern conveniences of course, was “rich,” and considered themselves to be very well-off and comfortable. Later families, with far more in the way of modern comforts, conveniences, and labor-saving devices, considered themselves to be “poor.” What had really changed? Perception, mostly. And I will bet that the first owners of that home had read the “Federalist Papers” while later residents considered such reading to be too difficult and completely extraneous to their existence. It gives one pause to consider what being “rich,” or what “civilization” really is. I’ll take the self-assurance and composure that I saw in the portrait of the first owners of that home, along with their literacy, over the world of modern wonders and electrical conveniences any day. They certainly looked much happier than most of the people who followed them in that residence, and considered themselves to be prosperous and fortunate. So much of all this seems to have to do with simple self-perception.

Fiddlerdave – at 17:05

“especially Property Rights”???? The USA’s first and maybe only commandment and priority is “property rights”. “He who has the property is right”, regardless of the method of acquisition. The respect accorded businesses and people who acquire property by even despicable means is a sign of what to expect when societal controls break down. If respect for the humanity in each and every person was the number 1 goal (like the example the Amish afforded us even in the death of their children), property rights would flow from that in a positive way, as well as behaving decently in the acquisition of the property you get, and its use when you have gotten it. “The someone owes me a living” folks, who comprise most of our top business and political leaders, are going to do quite well in the crisis by living off of others regardless of the cost to the people they deprive for their own benefit.

Medical Maven – at 17:48

Fiddlerdave at 17:05-If this comes down hard, even the rich and privileged will be on the same level as us, maybe lower, much lower, if the merit of USEFUL occupations counts for something. As I think it will. : )

INDIVIDUAL Property Rights should be viewed by you as a necessary evil that keeps the lazy on their toes, but also, more importantly, forms the basis from which all of our other “inalienable” rights flow. (Give credit to John Locke, the English philosopher, for logically fixing the basis of all of our other rights in the ownership of property).

Jane – at 17:57

Fiddlerdave, are you imagining the CEO of General Motors with a private army looting private homes, or what? A small house with a stocked pantry or a small farm with some livestock and a private gas storage tank DOES belong to the owner, no question. Or who do you think should decide otherwise?

crfullmoon – at 18:01

Alexander Hamilton: …”The additional securities to republican government, to liberty and to property, to be derived from the adoption of the plan under consideration, consist chiefly in the restraints which the preservation of the Union will impose on local factions and insurrections, and on the ambition of powerful individuals in single States, who may acquire credit and influence enough, from leaders and favorites, to become the despots of the people;

in the diminution of the opportunities to foreign intrigue, which the dissolution of the Confederacy would invite and facilitate; in the prevention of extensive military establishments, which could not fail to grow out of wars between the States in a disunited situation; in the express guaranty of a republican form of government to each; in the absolute and universal exclusion of titles of nobility;

and in the precautions against the repetition of those practices on the part of the State governments which have undermined the foundations of property and credit,

have planted mutual distrust in the breasts of all classes of citizens, and have occasioned an almost universal prostration of morals.”…

(Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose?)

Scaredy Cat – at 18:01

Kathy in FL at 15:11--It may seem brutal but socially we need to think about providing work for those who refuse to find it for themselves … “no work, no subsidy.” That there are real and concrete consequences to certain choices.

I hate that my comment is in any way contradictory, because Kathy in FL is DEFINITELY one of my ten ten.

That said, post- (and probably intra-) pandemic, subsudies would likely be a thing of the past.

Also, the problem of “those who refuse to find [work] for themselves” is so given to oversimplification, that we should be careful about our conclusions. I could say, and truthfully, that my grown, college-attending daughter does not even make enough money—at her fulltime, minimum-wage job—to pay the rent of a dumpy apartment. Yes, she could find a job making more (and hopefully someday she will), but the fault is not all hers. It is also—and I think mainly—the fault of “the system.” Nowadays, workers are nothing more than numbers messing up somebody’s bottom line. If a job can be done for less—by anyone, anywhere else—then it is, and the morality we’re talking about on this thread isn’t even part of the equation.

diana at 14:39 - I hope you are right. And I’m very glad that you’re posting.

And finally, as a general thought, I would like to say that I think emerging leaders will most likely be those with either a). the greatest firepower or b). the greatest moral authority (among other things, such as assertiveness, diplomacy, charm, intelligence).

As far as greatest firepower goes, me, I’d prefer to live under the leadership of the one without the guns.

And as for moral authority, religious beliefs would be not only irrelevant, but likely to make matters worse. This is not an argument against religion itself—to forbid religion is the same (and as wrong) as to force it. But to say only our beliefs are correct (and, hence, we’re superior) reveals the ugly side of religion, and it alienates.

(Actually, if I could, I would choose a system where the basic, agreed-upon tenets of all major religions are used as the basis for law. How a person worships, what day they worship, who they worship, etc., would all be a matter of personal choice. But I think the religious moral laws—e.g., the Ten Commandments—exemplify the essence of moral behavior, and so, in a moral—enlightened—society, would be reflected in the laws.)

Medical Maven – at 18:16

Scaredy Cat-The United States has as its bedrock the Judeo-Christian heritage that helped form the thoughts of our Founding Fathers and resulted in our Bill of Rights and The Constitution. So it has already been done. We here in the States are living it WHEN we choose to do so.

The worst fear of the Founding Fathers was that at some point the citizens would not be equal to what they had given them. It is only paper and words without the Collective Will to implement those directives and to abide the Rule of Law.

diana – at 18:20

The only thing that could really screw us up completely is if any of our large cities are nuked or dirty bombed and then retaliatory strikes, leading to a nuclear winter, and a burgeoning explosion of any pandemic following. One alone would be catastrophic, both in tandem would bring about the collapse of civilization.I was concerned about Oct 24, the end of Ramadan. So far it seems quiet.

Walrus – at 19:08

At the risk of being flamed yet again, what concerns me is that there are types of Western lifestyles that are going to contribute more “victims than others. I agree with Kathy and EOD, because I’m afraid I’ve seen the same things - people who have no idea how to operate in other than a welfare-type system and it scares me.

There are other groups who I don’t think are going to fare too well either - I have quite a few wealthy friends who live extremely affluent lifestyles - but everything is purchased from somewhere. The lady of the house doesn’t do her own cooking, cleaning, gardening and neither does her husband.

I’ve discussed BF with them and perhaps putting away a few provisions, but what I get back is “Oh if there is a Pandemic, we will just fly to (Cancun/St Tropez/Bermuda/Hawaii - you name it) and stay in a Resort/Hotel”.

Maybe they will get away with this strategy, but in a bad pandemic, I’m not sure I want to be spending my days in a hotel with 700 guests and 500 staff, even if I can find my way through whatever quarantine and transport regulations that are in place.

I’m not sure that money is going to be the be all and end all in a bad pandemic either, because if there is not much to purchase, then what good is cash?

Skills and tools are going to be valuable if things get really bad. I think I can see that we might have what I will term a “great simplification” if things get bad. There is no need for multiple layers of management if the population is considerably smaller and assets are no longer scarce.

Dr Dave – at 19:37

Dude,

I just got around to reading your posting from 10–22–06. I do not have much time to comment on it, but it was worth reading four times. I wish I could pick up the phone and discuss it with you, because I have many of the same opinions and sentiments.

This may, indeed, be our generation’s wake-up call. I look forward to a much-improved post-pandemic world.

Orlandopreppie – at 20:09

Medical-Maven, I would recommend a relatively new book to you “Faiths of our Founding Fathers”. It’s excellent and clears up a lot of misconceptions regarding our founding fathers and their religious beliefs. Most were, in fact, not Christians but Deists. Most did not believe in the virgin birth, the resurrection and a host of other things but did pull out the good points and underlying principles. The information is from their own letters to family, friends and acquaintences. It’s a small volume, VERY eye opening. It’s written in a more academic tone with a lot of primary source material cited, but still fascinating.

Scaredy Cat – at 20:14

LMWatBullRun at 11:35 - A certain grounding in physical reality seems to be required in order to have effective philosophy, witness Eric Hoffer, who was a longshoreman before he published “the True Believer”, or Ben Franklin, who was a printer and experimenter. John Adams was a farmer, as was Jefferson, who was also an architect and builder.

Personally, I could never consider a slave owner, in spite of his brilliance in some matters, to have had an “effective philosophy.”

Medical Maven at 12:18 - Hypocrisy is not an excuse for eschewing moral standards.

True. But I think it’s a good excuse for eschewing those who falsely claim to uphold high moral standards.

Medical Maven at 17:48 - INDIVIDUAL Property Rights should be viewed..as a necessary evil that keeps the lazy on their toes…

me at 18:01 - Also, the problem of “those who refuse to find [work] for themselves” is so given to oversimplification, that we should be careful about our conclusions. I could say, and truthfully, that my grown, college-attending daughter does not even make enough money—at her fulltime, minimum-wage job—to pay the rent of a dumpy apartment. Yes, she could find a job making more (and hopefully someday she will), but the fault is not all hers. It is also—and I think mainly—the fault of “the system.” Nowadays, workers are nothing more than numbers messing up somebody’s bottom line. If a job can be done for less—by anyone, anywhere else—then it is, and the morality we’re talking about on this thread isn’t even part of the equation.

Medical Maven at 18:16 - The United States has as its bedrock the Judeo-Christian heritage that helped form the thoughts of our Founding Fathers and resulted in our Bill of Rights and The Constitution.

me - Judeo-Christian is good for two!

MM still at 18:16 - So it has already been done. We here in the States are living it WHEN we choose to do so.

After a bad pandemic, I think the United States, as a meaningful entity, could quickly collapse. In any event, while I do think many individuals “here in the States are not currently living…[morally?] WHEN we choose to,” the same (“WHEN we choose to”) could be said—and with far more relevance—of our leaders in Washington, DC.

Scaredy Cat – at 20:27

My son just earned a Ph.D., and with his first post-graduation job can barely make the rent for a nearby, dinky apartment (forget buy a house). The equation is complicated.

Medical Maven – at 20:27

Scaredy Cat-At some point we reach that critical mass of ignorant, apathetic citizens and hypocritical, scamming leaders. And when that point is reached we have become the “paper tiger” that our enemies so love to have roll off of their tongues.

And THEN with the next hard blow we are HISTORY.

It takes two to tango. And the collective run of leaders reflects the pool of available talent and the judgement of the electors.

It is all about upbringing, principles, education, and being forged by the fires of hardship. How many of us, leaders and citizens, make the grade at this present moment?

Scaredy Cat – at 20:38

It’s not all about being lazy. I, as an nineteen-year-old “checker’s assistant,” was able (and actually far more lazy), on a part-time job, to not only afford the rent on a nice studio apartment, but also a car payment, food, gas, and insurance.

Medical Maven – at 20:46

Scaredy Cat at 20:38-You are talking about “economic opportunity” and “fairness” in a WORLD economy. I am talking about FREEDOM in a Representative Republic. You with your arguments could be making the same complaints in China this very day.

We are on different planes. Which is more important to your well-being and the well-being of your children and their children?

Urdar-Norway – at 20:50

its strange for a scandinavian sosial democrat (we all are you know..) to follow your discuisions, not only the historical things but the emphasism on Law & Order. My impression is that this subject is very popular in the US debate, and still, you are one of the societies with the highest crimes in the world.. The biggest part of population in prison.. The highest murder rates.. You have death penalthy for kids! And you have the hardest convictions.. And were does it get you? More demand on Law & Order,,, Why are you so far from discussing the roots to the problems? the causes? the action/ reaction isues? You feel treathend, and your most coomon answer is, “protection protection..” … does it realy seem to help?

If to discuss a post buster scenario. where are the emphasis on equality, social rights, health care, elders care, education, democracy, free speach? You may find the scandinavians to be naive to the bitter end, but at last we dont need a gun under our pillows to sleep well, and we can leave our toddlers in the babywagons outside the shops.. And we have better welfare systems than you can dream of.. hmm.. maybe there is a conection…

Maybe you sholdent have let the tradeunions be couped by the mafia or allowed the witchunts on the sosialsts in the 50s, then maybe you would have slept better as well? Our socetiy was bulidt by the workersmovement, The institutions, the media, the rights, the laws, the education, health care, and the welfare. But we also had a very equal heritage from the vikings to build on, mixed with Roman law and inspired by the french revoulton it ended up very well..

The two last parts we have in common, why did it end up so totaly diiferent?

pleease.. dont flame me, you want belive how long it takes me to put down these words, I will be totaly denfecless :-D

Medical Maven – at 20:59

Urdar-Norway-I could say much, but I won’t. But I do appreciate your perspective. You are a valued fluwikian. : )

Urdar-Norway – at 21:05

just trying to put some looooong range (a entire atlantic ocean) perspektive ) it may help on discusions with some fresh sea air :D

mojo – at 21:07

Urdar-Norway, Here in the US at this point in time,the corporations now run the govt. Social programs are not good for the bottom line.

Meserole in FL – at 21:08

Urdar-Norway: Your questions are certainly valid ones, and speaking for myself, I don’t have an answer for you. I really wish that we had - at the very least - a national health plan. I am old enough to remember when America was a much nicer, safer, and more caring country than it is today - and I miss that. I don’t know how it all got so out of control in a relatively short period of time.

Maybe it’s much easier to accomplish a social democracy in a relatively small, easily controlled country like Norway than it is in a huge place like the USA. That’s part of the problem. Another problem is a lack of will in recent administrations, but I think that’s slowly changing.

I wonder sometimes if a pandemic will serve to change the way we do things on a grand scale. It’s hard to predict. Throw globalization into the mix, and it’s even more difficult.

Leo7 – at 21:25

Urdar-Norway:

We are the legacy of the second, third, fourth, fifth, etc generations from a European continent that kicked them out. No inheritance, no land, no money, just a few connections. Here in the New World nothing was given to you just because you were born first. Every family here, has an immigration story and its a hard scrabble one. Survival was violent. Therefore we’re still violent. Your country is based on an inheritance that survived long enough to provide a more peaceful existence for you. Once the New World was discovered the old warring Europeans stopped, no one to fight the wars because the first borns were given everything, and a lot of the others left in order to own something. People who came here it was do or die..still is for the ones still coming.

Judge us after we’ve had thousands of years to sue for the peace. You judge us and yet as a country we’re still babies compared to you. Just my 2 cents on the subject.

Jane – at 21:29

Urdar-Norge, you’ve just pointed out many of the reasons why we feel threatened-life is different here. I’m glad you raised these issues, even though I can’t answer your questions. (Did you have a uniformity/similarity of ethnicity and religion for long periods of time? Just a thought about possible built-in harmony.)

Urdar-Norway – at 21:30

I forgot to say that we have the biggest burocracy ever,.. and those who are in charge of pandemic planning are totaly on wrong track.. The US is now miles ahead of us in Europe it seems..

Maybe this strenght will be good if there is a buster coming, it seem to be a local, decentralized effort happening in he US

Ps. I dont belive in busters, people allway find a way to deal with things.

Fiddlerdave – at 22:15

Urdar-Norway “Ps. I dont belive in busters, people allway find a way to deal with things. “ Like people whose “prayers are answered” in disasters, the only people you hear from are the one who had, not only the will, but there was a “way” to be found. The very numerous ones who didn’t “find a way” aren’t around to talk about it.

25 October 2006

EnoughAlreadyat 02:40

Nazism

Ghengis Khan

Khmer Rouge

Vikings

Suicide Bombers

kamikazes

Darfur

Sudan

EnoughAlreadyat 02:55

There’s something bad in your neighborhood. Who ya gonna call?

crfullmoon – at 07:24

Urdar-Norway, if it wasn’t so dark up there in Winter, I had previously considered learning Finnish!

crfullmoon – at 07:27

Then I could vacation, and visit Norway. It looks beautiful.

Fiddlerdave – at 22:15, you’re right; we only hear the survivors (for instance, bet there are a lot of men who try and drive themselves to the ER when they think they “may be” having a heart attack, who don’t make it, despite the crazy stories of some who did).

Green Mom – at 09:04

Leo- Man, I’m really confused by your post.

“We are the legacy of the second, third, fourth, fifth, etc generations from a European continent that kicked them out.”

Um- a significant porportion of our citizens ancestors were dragged over here kicking and screaming and dying in slave ships. A larger porportion came over/still coming over because the living conditions are so much better. I’m not talking social conditions so much as droughts, famine, war,etc, they left behind. A big chunck of my ancestors came becaouse of the Irish Potato famine. Another chunk were indentured servants. One couple was indentured servents to a family who came over-my folks DID NOT WANT TO COME-they had to leave behind all their family,frends, culture, way of life, but had to anyway. Another big chunk were Scots/Irish who were dispossessed and hounded by the English all through England/Scotland/Ireland for a couple hundred years until they made it to the American Appalchian Mountains where they are now hounded and in some cases dispossessed by the American Government.

“Once the New World was discovered the old warring Europeans stopped,”

The two World Wars of this centuary were fought long after the New World was discovered.

Undar-I married into a Scandinavian family, (Swedish/Finnish) and while I myself have not had the privlige of traveling to Scandinavia, many of my in-laws have traveled back and forth and maintain some ties. If we could swing it finacially, we’d move there in a heartbeat. Its not that I don’t love my country-(I sense a flaming here about to happen) but you, Undar, are spot on about the violence/prisons/executions.

DennisCat 09:37

Green Mom – at 09:04 ..New World was discovered ….

Just for the record: my ancestors where here before the Europeans arrived (I’m Chickasaw). There was a nice socialistic civilization in N. Amer. before the Europeans - you know - and look what it got us.

Are we there yet – at 09:46

DennisC – at 09:37

“and look what it got us.”

Would you please clairfy that statment.

cactus – at 10:04

Are we there yet – at 09:46

Umm..

 Genocide, smallpox, syphillus to start.

 Reservations.
diana – at 10:11
 I didn’t have a car until I was in my thirties, but used public transportation. I didn’t own a home until I was in my late thirties. I couldn’t afford any of what Scardey Cat did as a young woman because we live in different decades. Her children are in the position I was in,so conditions have not improved.  I love my own country, and like living here. I don’t like the polarazation or the entitlement society that we have developed.We can’t change it now. Political correctness hamstrings us, so honest feelings are stifled because some groups sensibilities will be offended. It doesn’t stop people from feeling these things, merely from expressing them. In the beginning it served a purpose, but it has run away with itself and become a ball and chain we drag around.
DennisCat 10:17

Are we there yet – at 09:46

cactus – at 10:04 = bingo

Chickasaws had the view that no moral man could own the immortal earth. The Europeans came in and “declared” the land was theirs. But realize I am also part “very blue blooded” English- so I have a foot in both camps.

But bringing the point back around to pandemic flu. Realize that by many accounts the smallpox brought by outsiders killed off as much as 80 % of the native people. Large CFR’s are possible.

LMWatBullRunat 10:27

For the person above who said that they did not understand what happened to the “old” United States, the short answer is, “a lack of philosophy.”

We are now reaping the fruits of the anti-intellectual revolution started over a hundred years ago. The rot has propogated slowly, but is now very deep.

Example- Some years ago I was sorting through my grnadmother’s trunks, and I found among other things an 8th grade reader published in 1858. I thought “how quaint! I wonder what sorts of (primitive?)things the 8th grade studied in 1858?”

So, I opened the book and started reading.

(Bear in mind that I am a graduate with honors of one of the best universities in the US, far more widely read than 99% of my fellow grads, and a former member of Mensa. Some of my friends call me ‘Professor’ because I generally know the answers. Not bragging, just providing some background here)

  I was stunned to find that there were a number of questions, at least 20%, TO WHICH I DID NOT KNOW THE ANSWERS.  Moreover, the answers were not to be found in the text; my conclusion is that the knowledge required was generally available in the culture then extent, or at least available to an 8th grade teacher, but I did not know them.

The standard of the book was quite high; vocabulary, grammar and diction of the text was much better than I see from present-day college graduates.

This incident brought home to me home badly deteriorated our present education system really is. Since an educated citizenry is the foundation of a representative republic such as ours, my conclusion is that we are ripe for collapse, and an influenza pandemic is one of a number of potential triggering events.

LMWatBullRunat 10:30

Not sure how ‘how’ became ‘home’, but perhaps I am (unconsciously) reinforcing my point. <rueful grin>

LMWatBullRunat 10:43

Diana-

In the beginning entitlement served a purpose.

Well, yes, but that was an evil purpose at it’s root. I submit there is a huge philosophical and moral difference between voluntary contributions to a charitable organization whose purpose is relief, and forcible extraction of money ‘will ye or nil ye’ by the government. This moral difference corrupts all it touches.

Ideas do matter, and they do have real consequences in the real world. We see them now and I am very much afraid we will see even more stark examples shortly.

To get back to the ‘flu, the underlying root cause of the present inaction of WHO in the face of an enormous threat with which they are charged with averting, is the underlying moral relativism of those in power. They think “well, it can’t possibly be that bad, and if it is, the scientists will figure out a way around it.” They think that “somehow” “something” will “just happen” to save the day, and they frantically avoid the sort of razor-edged logical analysis required to cope with this problem because the results of such thinking are too unnerving and too disturbing to their political overlords.

Philosophy matters. Ideas matter. Ethics and honor matter. If H5N1 breaks out into pandemic form we will all see just how much they do matter. See the post “the Gods of the Copybook Headings”

diana – at 12:53

The men in my village are Volunteers. Volunteer fire fighters, First aid, and many do worthwhile projects. This week its bow hunting 200 deer to thin our herds. Sure its a fun thing for a hunter. The meat is donated. I might get a few pounds of deer sausage. I’ll check it out. I do expect we’ll get around to organization as far as Pandemic planning, but even if its not comprehensive, my optimistic “Magical thinking “self believes that all of these men who have proved themselves capable and organized, will in a pinch ,get it right. All of our supermarkets are at least 5 miles away. I can see organized food runs so that children won’t starve. People are capable of pulling together, at least here they seem to do so. For Katrina, this little town in a few days sent at least 12 truckloads of goods (water, blankets food )off via McGuire airforce base. A few men, a few trucks, and some storage in the town garages. It’s a good town with competant people.I don’t know how the rest of the country is, but I think our little village will make it if need be.

DennisCat 13:05

diana – at 12:53

Yes, I believe your village will make it. Civilization is not in the power grids and storehouses- it is in the spirit. Civilization is planted deep in your village and it will survive.

Oremus – at 13:09

cactus – at 10:04

It also brought you and me. If it hadn’t happened you and I wouldn’t exist. Other people would but not us. I’m a little self serving when I look at history. So many in the future may owe their existence to the birdflu, ie they wouldn’t have been conceived if their parents, grandparents, greatgrandparents, etc hadn’t been SIP, etc.

Are we there yet – at 13:17

If it is a civilization buster, I think I have found my post-pandemic skill. I know how to make beer!

[snip]

World History

Humans existed as members of small bands of nomadic hunters and gatherers. They lived on deer in the mountains during the summer and would go to the coast and live on fish and lobster in winter.

The 2 most important events in all of history were the invention of beer and the invention of the wheel. The wheel was invented to get man to the beer. These were the foundation of modern civilization.

Once beer was discovered it required grain and that was the beginning of agriculture. Neither the glass bottle nor aluminum can were invented yet, so while our early human ancestors were sitting around waiting for them to be invented, they just stayed close to the brewery. That’s how villages were formed.

Malachi – at 13:35

Hail to the beer makers…Or should I say cheers ;)

LMWatBullRunat 13:41

make mine Sam Adams winterbrew, please! (hic)

Malachi – at 13:49

LMWatBullRun….You should try to make it yourself,It is pretty easy and not too expensive to to get the needed equiptment.Well worth the investment in my opinion..(hic)I gave a recipe once for a harvest brew also, made with apples that developes a little kick with time.It is in the cookbook on the wiki side.

LMWatBullRunat 14:21

Malachi-

that’s a good idea, but not at the top of my priority list; I’m still working on other things. I will be looking into it, though when some other projects get a bit farther along.

Pixie – at 14:23

LMWatBullRun - at 10:43:

“…they frantically avoid the sort of razor-edged logical analysis required to cope with this problem because the results of such thinking are too unnerving and too disturbing to their political overlords.”

Many people have asked why the WHO does not come out and simply tell people, individual people, families, and communities, to prepare for a flu pandemic in the most practical way (stored food, water, etc.). I think they do avoid the logical solution very deliberately and quite intentionally. The current thinking very well may be that it is “unfair” and not “moral” to encourage one group to prepare in this way if other groups simply cannot, in practicality, also prepare in this way. There are many at the international level who feel that simply to encourage such practicality is a defacto violation of human rights.

One of the current candidate for the head WHO position is a Burmese man who has no medical or scientific background. His platform is that health issues are not medical issues for most of the world so much as they are human rights issues of wealth vs. poverty and the haves vs. the have-nots. That this candidate has gotten to the final round for consideration tells you how far the WHO had gotten away from medicine and science and how far they are now ready to venture into the realm of social justice. With this current philosophy, it is not hard to see how the WHO would be hamstrung to encourage practical individual and community preparation for those who were able to do so as to do so would be a strategy which, if embraced, would lead to the hard dilema of what to tell those who are unable to prepare in this way, from a practical standpoint as well as a philosophical one.

Of course, the smartest way out of this dilema would be for WHO to encourage all individuals and communities to prepare “to the best of their abilities,” but anyone making that kind of statement can can also be accused of disregarding the “higher” value of “social justice,” so what’s left is for us all to go down on the ship together. At least officially it will be “equitably” together.

Leo7 – at 14:42

Pixie:

You seem to have your finger on the WHO pulse. I never thought of it as you presented your opinion, but it makes sense. Survival being equal opportunity for all.

crfullmoon – at 14:59

“A Fare For All, And No Fair to Anybody!”

Sniffles – at 15:02

Pixie – at 14:23 Your comment makes a lot of sense. Another example of that same line of thought by WHO has to do with the mask debate. If my memory serves me, the reason why WHO removed all references regarding type of masks to be worn by medical staff during a pandemic was that many third world countries would not be able to obtain adequate supplies of these masks, so the information was omitted. They did not want to recommend a standard that some of the poor nations may not be able to attain.

crfullmoon – at 15:05

“Welcome to…the Future”

LMWatBullRunat 15:16

With respect, CRFM, that is the future only if we allow it to be so. This sort of ‘politically erroneous’ idiocy is a last gasp of a bankrupt philosophy. That insanity is the past, reaching with skeletal fingers to try to drag us back into the grave of collectivism.

WE are the future, and we have yet to write our history.

“Never give up! Never surrender!”

Leo7 – at 15:29

crfullmoon at 15:05

Welocme to the future”

___________________________

Is this what globalization means?

Oremus – at 15:29

crfullmoon – at 14:59

Are we all Bozo’s on this bus?

Oremus – at 15:30

Don’t forget to inflate your shoes.

Hillbilly Bill – at 15:31

crfullmoon – at 15:05

Oremus – at 15:29

C’mon, squeeze the wheeze!

crfullmoon – at 15:34

Oremus got it - ;-)

LMWatBullRun, I get odd bits of levity in my audio loops to cope sometimes; “Firesign Theatre” quotes, in this instance.

Giving up isn’t an option. (But I’m suuuuure gettin’ frustrated.)

Oremus – at 15:39

Will mister Uh Clem, please report to the hospitality center. Mister Uh Clem.

crfullmoon – at 15:45

I think we’re all bozos on this bus MP3 sample there, if you’re speakers are on and you never heard the Firesign Theatre…

inthehills – at 16:10

this thread needs less hamilton,and much more madison.

DennisCat 16:40

I have seen discussions on global pandemics that destroy everyone’s civilization and some discussion about what if there is not a H5N1 pandemic anytime soon. But what about the case half way between the two extremes. What if some of these new vaccines or drugs work (even partially) and the “industrialized nations” (meaning here medical industry especially) innoculate a large fraction of their population but the poorer ones don’t get the vaccine in time. How would that effect the overal world civilization? For example, the Swiss have ordered enough vaccine based on the older strain to innoculate their entire population.

diana – at 16:58

So the rational is. If the poorest third world countries can’t help themselves, every one else should hold their noses and get flushed down a collective toilet? Bull.

DennisCat 18:12

diana – at 16:58 “So the rational is… every one else should hold their noses and get flushed down a collective toilet? “

I think that is irrational not rational.

Notice I do not advocate the sewer you present. I just asked the question what would that do to civilization. The truth is most poorer nations do not have the medical industry to produce vaccines and even the large countries may not have enough time for complete production or distribution capability to vaccinate their entire population. It may be just as likely for there to be limited vaccination with only partially protective vaccines as total loss by all countries. -The same with other antiviral drugs. Right now Kuwait has enough Tamiflu for 110% of its population and Ethiopia less that 5 % of its. If TSHTF tomorrow, there would be a great difference between the haves and have not nations. I am not saying it is fair or should be, just that is the way it is now.

diana – at 18:36
 There is no ideal world, there are no ideal solutions. If noone has solved inequalities in life till now, no one ever will.Utopia has never existed. It never will. Someone always will have more of everything than someone else. Whatever has started with the noblest of intentions always becomes subverted. I may be more of an optimist than most here, but I am also more of a cynic. I can only be effective in my small sphere of influence. Some can do more. Perhaps some here will. become internationally effective. That I know I can’t do so ,shouldn’t stop anyone else from trying. 
Scaredy Cat – at 18:43

I don’t think the WHO has done a thing based on any of the notions characterized above. I don’t think (not that I think all must suffer because some must—let’s look for a way to mitigate the suffering of as many as possible (here’s where some degree of collectivism can really be a great thing)) the WHO has used any sort of moral reasoning at all here in regard to H5N1. Just a bow to political (money) pressures of powerful nations.

Urdar-Norway – at 18:52

:D thx for all feedback. I will continue throwing in some thought.. size matters? The debate often seem to circle around the size of the local soceity, and how it will cope. Many says the small ones will handle it bether. Maybe there is something in it. Maybe the scandinavns have less fear, not becuase we are better prepeard but maybe we belive so? That when TPTB is closer at reach it feels safer? But is this a fact? Or just a feeling? Maybe those antizipated problems is not related to historical facts but something as simple as urban planning, and then the realy hughe differnce between europe and the US has happend the last 50 years, the shopping malls, highways etc. The longer away people live from where they work, cultural life and places for decisions the more risk for things to break apart since larger systems are more complicated than small ones. Or they just feels fragile.

EOD – at 18:55

Orlandopreppie – at 20:09 I have two books I would recommend as well. Original Intent, the Courts, the Constitution, and Religion, and the second Lives of the Signers of the Declaration of Independence. The first uses and relies upon ‘primary-source information documenting the views of “the Fathers” . The second is a reprint of the 1848 original. They offer a different view that refutes the revisionist teaching in our culture today that our founding fathers were mostly deists. Several quotes just for a “teaser”.

John Jay – Original Chief-Justice of the US Supreme Court: “Unto Him who is the author and giver of all good, I render sincere and humble thanks for His manifold and unmerited blessings, and especially for our redemption and salvation by His beloved Son”

George Mason – Father of The Bill Of Rights: “My soul I resign into the hands of my Almighty Creator, whose tender mercies are all over His works, who hateth nothing that He hath made, and to the justice and wisdom of whose dispensations I willingly and cheerfully submit, humbly hoping from His unbounded mercy and benevolence, through the merits of my blessed Savior, a remission of my sins.”

John Dickinson – Signer of the Constitution: “Rendering thanks to my Creator for my existence and station among His works, for my birth in a country enlightened by the Gospel and enjoying freedom, and for all His other kindnesses, to Him I resign myself, humbly confiding in His goodness, and in His mercy through Jesus Christ for the events of eternity.”

Benjamin Rush – Signer of The declaration of Independence, in his, ‘A Defense of the Use of the Bible in Schools’ “Christianity is the only true and perfect religion; and that in proportion as mankind adopt its principles and obey its precepts they will be wise and happy.” “A better knowledge of this religion is to be acquired by reading the Bible than in any other way.” “The Bible contains more knowledge necessary to man in his present state than any other book in the world.”

Noah Webster, “In my view, the Christian religion is the most important and one of the first things in which all children, under a free government, ought to be instructed. The Christian religion must be the basis of any government intended to secure the rights and privileges of a free people.”

Our liberal public education system has done a very good job in rewriting it for those of you young in years. Just reading some of the literature from that time will tell much, such as the New England Primer, the text book used by most all states and schools. http://www3.gettysburg.edu/~tshannon/his341/nep1805contents.html

Better yet James Wilson (signer of the US Constitution) in his ‘Of The General Principles Of Law & Obligation’, “ http://www.founding.com/library/lbody.cfm?id=207&parent=61

Walrus – at 18:57

LMWatBullRun, your post about the eigth grade reader illuminates the biggest problem America and a lot of the rest of the world faces - that is the belief that we are somehow smarter and more intelligent then our ancestors.

The reality is that we are not more intelligent, merely that through the creation of a secular humanistic philosophy after the invention of the printing press, we started looking at our surroundings using the scientific method, codified and published our findings, and patiently built up the world view, body of knowledge and technologies that we take for granted today.

Secular humanism defeated religion as an organising principle although not without battles. Galileo and others were jailed and threatened with torture for questioning the teachings of the church, and some scientists like Giordano Bruno and others were burned at the stake.

The greatest creation of secular humanism is the Declaration of Independence and the American Constitution.

These two documents are alive and relevent today as they were when they were penned, and they were penned by people just as intelligent and in some ways better informed than you and I are today.

(Bites toungue ion an effort not to start a political rant) I would respectfully suggest that the victory of secular humanism is not complete, the forces of darkness and superstition are not yet dead, you see them in debates about gay marriage, stem cell research, abortion, contraception and a whole lot of other matters.

After a major pandemic if the rule of law has faltered, all the old enemies will once again make a grab for power:- Religions of all descriptions, entrenched aristocracies or would be aristocracies, raciists and bigots, xenophobes and all of the other assorted evils that will crawl out from under the rocks. You can be sure of it as night follows day.

I would therefore respectfully suggest that in the event of a civilisation buster, include a copy of the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution of the United States of America in your preps and add a weapon or too and some ammunition. Tell your friends to do the same.

I can think of no more important things worth defending than the Declaration of Independence and Constitution, and my guess is that after a bad pandemic we may have to fight for them again.

inthehills – at 19:11

we need to fight for them now.

diana – at 19:14

True.

ColdClimatePrepperat 19:15

EOD, are you saying the Christian religion will be helpful to our pandemic or post pandemic world? If so, I beg to differ, at least with the current interpretation of christianity which is hostile to science and knowledge and mired in dogma and “isms”.

just my 0.02 cents, and since I started this thread, I don’t feel overly guilty about contributing to thread drift.

I believe our only hope for the future is in knowledge, science and freedom from unfounded beliefs that hold us back as a culture.

diana – at 19:20

Wasn’t it Benjamin Franklin who said something to the effect. That now we have a Republic, lets see if we can keep it. I don’t recall exactly. Certainly they crafted something we all value, in our somewhat differing interpretations.

inthehills – at 19:28

in his correspondence with jefferson,over the last fifty years of their lives,john adams said ,and i’m paraphrasing; if one “religion” should gain ascendency over all others’ we will end up burning and pilloring each other the way the europeans have for the past 500 years. the period of enlightenment came about because of the revulsion at the carnage of religiously inspired wqarfare.(the hundred years war). perhaps we should pay attention to our past.and learn from it. for once.

diana – at 19:37
 It is there, we all have it to one degree or another, and we all know to what degree. 
diana – at 19:39

wrong thread, switched mid post.

diana – at 19:40

Time to do something else. It will be interesting to read this thread another day.

EOD – at 19:40

Not really my intent but yes I do think “true” Christianity could help. Not though the popular form we mostly see in the free world today, that prosperity gospel, etc. which has nothing to do with humbleness and charity. The Christianity as practiced in the many city Gospel Missions/Soup kitchens, that Christianity as illustrated in Christ’s parable of the ‘Good Samaritan’, those and other like life philosophies will be what helps us get through what is to come.

DennisCat 19:54

diana – at 19:20 yes it was Ben,

Franklin was asked at the close of the Constitutional Convention of 1787, as he left Independence Hall :“Well, Doctor, what have we got—a Republic or a Monarchy?”

his answer was:

  “A Republic, if you can keep it.”
ColdClimatePrepperat 20:01

EOD. Thanks, I agree. Humility, compassion, charity all will be needed in abundance. If some find this in Christianity, terrific. Others of us find it in other Rreligions or no religion at all, just in our hearts. In any case, if we want the future to hold more happiness and less suffering for all, we need to bring the best out in ourselves and in others.

EOD – at 20:12

Two of Franklin’s quotes I like most:

“God works wonders now and then; Behold a lawyer, an honest man.”

“We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid.”

Goju – at 20:24

A severe pandemic may give us the opportunity to rebuild the world into the utopia we dreamed of in the ‘60s.

Equal rights for all. Peace & Love. May all follow their dreams. May all be as they wish to be.

That is my hope.

Ottawan – at 20:41

Recent computer modelling forecasts of pandemic impact on several countries, showing developing countries hit disproportionately hard due to poor medical and gov’t infrastructure. Slides 24, 25 and 26 are striking…

http://tinyurl.com/ye3rjx

Even with only a moderate pandemic, these models show countries like Indonesia, the Phillipines, Malaysia, the OPEC countries losing 0.5% of their populations to influenza, significant losses compared to the developed nations. The forecasts for severe and ultra impact are more disproportionate — Indonesia could lose 5% of its population compared to the USA less than 0.5%.

These are the conservative estimates. What kind of a reaction could we anticipate from the people of these Third World nations if events unfold as the models predict? Even in a relatively rosy scenario, massive social chaos and unrest…

Pixie – at 20:59

Urdar-Norway - at 18:52

I love Scandanavia, and would love for us to have the calm and prosperous kind of country here that you have there.

But, there is one big difference between our countries - the sheer size. The United States is huge. The distance between New York and Los Angeles is almost 4,000 km. To compare, that is further than the distance between Oslo and Istanbul. If you look at the land mass and the number and varieties of people that live in the broad area between Oslo and Istanbul, and compare that to the U.S., we probably are no better or worse than the mix of those peoples with regard to poverty, crime, and corruption than they are there. And can you imagine trying to govern an area that extends from Oslo past Istanbul? In Europe, any have tried that kind of thing, and few have succeeded!

DennisCat 21:05

Ottawan – at 20:41 Thanks what was a good report. notice that even their servere case was just at 2.33% death rate (world wide ave).

it doesn’t look good for China, India, and LDC’s.

Fiddlerdave – at 21:26

I am skeptical of the forecasts that show the USA doing very well. Unlike all the other industrialized countries, the growth of the for-profit hospitals and the loss of the non-profit hospitals in the USA spells disaster in a crisis. For what reason will any for-profit hospital stay in business? Why should a doctor who works on billing for procedures keep operating? The health insurance companies operate on an profit assumption of payment at the current rate of illness (exemptions for acts of war, terrorism, civil disobedience already are in place in policies - watch for panemic exclsuions to start showing up!). The huge increase of critical illnesses, the huge and immediate reduction of monthly premiums as companies stop operating and fold and individuals stop paying, mean the health insurance companies crash and the cash flow to these facilites will stop. Not to mention how do you bill for putting someone in the hall with no medications and no care? No one will pay anyway. The USA will lose 3/4 of its central hospital institutions in the middle of a huge disaster since these owners like Tenet etc. will just close their doors like in Katrina. I am seeing the other national health systems plan now at least to SOME extent, with stockpiles and coordinated work, and USA hospitals are doing basically ZERO prep (no profit!) except maybe paper plans, which basically amount to “how to allocate the existing pillows to the passengers” while on the verticle line descent to the ground.

LMWatbullRunat 21:26

In point of fact, I do have a copy of the Constitution and the Bill of Rights in a little Penguin pocket edition. I keep it in my briefcase to help educate It’s getting pretty dogeared and I probably need a new one or three

Anon_451 – at 21:38

LMWatbullRun – at 21:26 Or six or ten they may come in handy.

On a busted civilization. There is no way you can plan for that, there are way to many variables to even plan for. All you can do is wait and see what happens and go with the flow.

Fiddlerdave – at 21:57

“Fiddlerdave, are you imagining the CEO of General Motors with a private army looting private homes, or what?” Yes, absolutely. They have private armies now, they do exactly that in various parts of the world (when their influence does not get a public army at taxpayer ecpense to do it for them, and I see no reason they would refrain from doing so inside the US borders if circumstances warrant (in their point of view, which is “what is good for me is good for the country!” otherwise known as “trickle down economics”))

“A small house with a stocked pantry or a small farm with some livestock and a private gas storage tank DOES belong to the owner, no question. Or who do you think should decide otherwise?” I imagine native Americans felt quite the same way, and no governmental or private landowner authority (i.e. armed force) asked them as they took their stocked pantries and provisioned lands they lived on for generations. This coninues to this day with shooting and violence, and for unpaid royalties in the many billions of dollars, summarized by a conservative Reagan appointee judge as (from http://tinyurl.com/ylkp9k ): “In a July 2005 opinion, the judge, Royce C. Lamberth, wrote: “Our ‘modern’ Interior Department has time and again demonstrated that it is a dinosaur — the morally and culturally oblivious hand-me-down of a disgracefully racist and imperialist government that should have been buried a century ago, the last pathetic outpost of the indifference and anglocentrism we thought we had left behind.”“ Do you really think these people will respect your “property rights” when the chips are down?

LMWatbullRunat 21:57

Anon_451 You are right that we don’t know exactly what the future will hold, but there are some basic strategies that can help maximize the liklihood of civilization recovering sooner. The more people that adopt those the better, which is why I spend the time making those suggestions. <grin>

FiddlerDave-

I agree with your estimate of the US healthcare situation- see the discussion in the Triage thread. The insurance companies bleed the doctors and the doctors bleed us and our employers. (and you thought that bleeding as a medical treatment went out in the 19th century!!) Sigh. Plus que ca change plus que c’est la meme chose…..

Fiddlerdave – at 21:59

“In point of fact, I do have a copy of the Constitution and the Bill of Rights in a little Penguin pocket edition. I keep it in my briefcase to help educate It’s getting pretty dogeared and I probably need a new one or three “

Throw it away. Without Habeus Corpus, there is nothing else.

Kathy in FL – at 22:25

Scaredy Cat – at 18:01

Differences in opinion does not necessarily mean differences in ethics in my opinion. <grin> If I have “a right” to an opinion, I should fully expect that someone else should just as rightfully have one of their own … and it might just be different from mine. LOL!

I’m really not making light of the seriousness … just of the fact that I might get my nose out of joint because someone would have a difference of opinion from me. That’s life.

My opinion(s) are based on my life experiences. I should be willing, in that case, to accept that someone else’s life experiences may lead to a different opinion.

My statements might have seemed over-simplified, but at the same time, in my experiences and in the area that those experiences occured in … geographically, socially, and financially … it isn’t the simplification that it might seem. I’ve worked on both sides of the fence with regard to subsidies. I’ve seen both the best and the worst that such assistance can create. But there is a population of the receivers that do just that … refuse to get work, intentionally change their circumstances so that work is not required to continue receiving assistance, or refuse to keep a job once acquired. It is called system manipulation and is a systemic problem with ant assistance program whether it involves cash or goods. In our area, out of necessity, they have begun to truly crack down on that kind of fraud and abuse and every day there are many cases pending appeal of assistance termination in the section 8 office alone. Welfare fraud is a frequent item when I pull civil/criminal reports on lease applications.

I’m not saying that so-called “white collar crime” is any less of a problem, but my experience does not lie in that area. That is one of the reasons for my immediate follow-up post where I stated that everyone … a universal “us” … need to be accountable and responsible for our choice and actions.

As in the case of disaster victims, there may be a need for a term of allowance. But there should be a definite time limit on any type of assistance and there shouldn’t be a forgiveness factor involved. The time given should be adequate for some type of financial reorganization if they need it … but no one should simply be let off “the hook.” Hey, our family will be in a bad way if the economy collapses. We hold several mortgages that are far and away from being paid off. But I don’t expect TPTB to “set me free” from my debts. I expect to behave responsibly regardless of the good or bad circumstances. I expect that same of others that I expect from myself.

Hide in the Hills (and wait) – at 22:39

Urdar-Norway – at 21:30

Try not to be too hard on us here in the “States”. Compared to the Vikings we are just toddlers. We (as a nation) are puritanical, I suppose. We fought several wars because we don’t like dictators (here or other places in the world). If TSHTF, it will probably be that way again. We are lasissez-faire. Live and let live; as long as you stay out of my yard and don’t steal my apples out of MY tree. And if we have to unite in force, watch out. Eventually, peace will win out, because those who will not allow it will be stopped.

If things get rough after PF, I don’t believe we will have to consciously decide how to act, I believe it will come naturally and swiftly. About the time it takes to draw and fire. Otherwise, someone else will. At least, with those who would do you harm. Count on it.

By the way, Urdar, I have friends in Sweden. It’s a beautiful country.

Medical Maven – at 22:49

Don’t the Swedes and Norwegians make jokes about each other (in a jocular way, of course)? : )

Hide in the Hills-You had better start hiding.

Newsie – at 23:32

Medical Maven, actually the Swedes joke about the Norwegians, but by the time the Norwegians realize what has happened, they are halfway home from the cocktail party! : )

Or so it has been explained to this half-Swede, half-Norwegian by very proud Swedish grandparents.

Fiddlerdave – at 23:41

“It is called system manipulation and is a systemic problem with any assistance program whether it involves cash or goods. “ I guess I have some problem with the focus of these concerns. It is routine and accepted that our government operate huge cash assistance programs for well-connected,powerful interests in this country. If these entitlements (that DWARF those you discuss) to the rich received 1/10th the outrage and concern the low caste entitlement people get, our budget would be balanced and taxes lowered. 200 billion in farm subsidies (many of which are buy programs that raise the overall prices for commodities like milk for EVERYBODY at enromous societal cost to the poor), enormously profitable companies getting tax credits (Enron put their’s to good use in offshore bogus businesses). And the fraud in these programs is rampant, when anyone bothers to take a look. Although US law has made “thought crime” a priority here - its not eneough to show a $100 million showed up in some executives personal bank account, we have to show he KNEW IN HIS MIND it was a crime and he INTENDED to defraud. Virtually impossible to do.\Let me make you a suggestion - pick 5 people entering the permanently or long-term disabled world, like car accidents, MS, heart problems, help them navigate the years of bureacracy and cruel comments of people, to get the $600/month, 2 years of waiting (once approved) for Medicare (that few doctors take anymore), 5 to 10 years (or more) of waiting for Section 8 and see the true “wonderful world of entitlements” you describe. Yes, there are frauds, but some people (many of them not obvious to a brief contact) can get upset or angry when what they have is being denied or taken away because it means they are going to lose what little they have,live in the street, or just die…..I live in Orange County, CA one of the richest counties in the country with the lowest charity rates, much of that goes to tax-dodge scams like the Crystal Cathedral, and if the people today can spare huge amounts for the top citizens, can’t spare what literally is change money to those who can’t fit in a “go-go” world where every employee has to compete with 12 year olds in China and if you have a health problem, the new health databases means there won’t be an opening for you anyway, no matter how many people a company needs to hire. Everyone in the US was handed a tremendous lagacy of wealth by previous generations. If charity would allow these people to live, it might be different, but it don’t. Which to me is a matter of shame this country should consider when it calls itself the “greatest in the world”.

26 October 2006

diana – at 12:22

Whether or not the pandemic comes, we will be in for a very bumpy ride. Nature is merely showing us who is really calling the shots. She will get rid of a lot of us one way or another, and we all don’t want it to be us. I’m quite content to be an American, don’t feel the bones of our Republic need altering. If we stick to the constitution we’ll muddle through anything. The companies want globalization, the TPTB want it, but I think the American people are pretty fed up, and getting vocal about it. We’ll see what happens in Nov. Nature is shaking things up, so are some of us.

History Lover – at 17:57

I found this thread to be one of the most interesting and satisfying conversations I’ve read since I’ve been visiting the Flu Wiki. I’m sure that it is over so I’m probably just talking to myself (and I seem to do that more and more), but I thought I would like to add a couple of thoughts concerning government. I told Dude some time ago that I always carried an “emergency” copy of the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution with me. He laughed and thought I was joking. Actually I always have it at hand, because for me the cornerstone of any society is the contract between the leaders and the people. And in America, a country that is sometimes flawed, sometimes corrupt and violent, sometimes sluggish and lethargic, one thing is a constant. We created the perfect political system, one that simply and eloquently states that people have the right to Life, Liberty, and (drumroll please) The Pursuit of Happiness. When Thomas Jefferson changed that one simple word “property” (advocated by the British landed gentry in the philosophies of Harrington and Locke)to “happiness”, he forever and irrevocably challenged the notion that men should be judged solely by their possessions. Although as a wealthy slaveowner he respected and honored wealth, he also recognized that in this country people were free to choose to pursue talents and careers that were not available before this era.

The second pertinent point I would like to make (for my ghostly audience), is that for the first time in the history of the world (with all due respect for the Magna Charta that only bestowed rights on the barons), people had the right to demand a contract with their government. And if at any time the government did not honor that contract, the people could overthrow it. So overthrow it they did at a later time (the failed Articles of Confederation).

So my point is (for those of you who are still not snoring), I too am an optimist. If we live by this most perfect document, we can restore our society. Perhaps it will be block by block, or even house by house. But we can rebuild. I would like to think that Democracy and Jeffersonian ideals are too ingrained to be defeated by a bug, even if it is a Super Virus. If it comes to a slapdown between the Declaration of Independence and the Bird Flu, I’m betting on Jefferson’s essay.

LMWatbullRunat 19:11

History Lover-

Hear, hear! Well said sir, VERY well said. The only minor exception I would take to that post is that we have a Republic, not a democracy……..

inthehills – at 19:17

shakespeare and jefferson thought that democracy was “mob rule”. perhaps next time a benovolent meritocracy.

ColdClimatePrepperat 20:02

History Lover: I’m listening, and loving what you say. Can’t say I’m as optimistic as you are, but I hope it turns out the way you see it all.

LMWatbullRunat 20:28

The ideas alone are not enough; we need to have the backbone and the ability to fight for our ideals. As the teacher said when he heard of the “shot heard round the world” on the morning of April 19th, “Deponite Libros!”

tjclaw1 – at 21:13

History Lover – at 17:57

I totally agree. I spend my days interpreting both our Federal and State Constitutions and statutes, as well as common law and applying that law to unique cases - it’s all history and stare decisis. These documents are the foundation that will guide our country through the worst of times. Just look what we’ve been through in 200 years. I think England and Canada, as well many EU countries will survive as well. A pandemic, however, will be a civilization buster for many countries.

Montreme – at 21:29

History Lover,

Let me add my kudos for your post at 17:57. Regardless of how small or fragmented the resulting communities are in the US after a severe pandemic, it is important that we continue to abide by the ideals of the Constitution. When it was written, the country was small and fragmented. There was no grid.

I say - “No to warlords, yes to elections, no matter what.”

27 October 2006

History Lover – at 08:59

LMWatbullRun - This country has been called many things - a Republic, a Democracy, a Representative Democracy. Regardless of what we are called, I think the most important thing is that we have a contract government. And it’s not sir, it’s ma’m. (We southerners can get ten syllables out of that word ma’m.)

Thanks to everyone else who posted. I teach American History at the college level, and I am forever humbled by the love that I see students exhibit for our country. In addition having taught students from all around the world, I can say that these democratic ideals are held as highly by these citizens. Perhaps it is because I have contact with young people who are continually learning their country’s history that I am optimist.

tjclaw1 - At the same time I agree that what you say is true. For many countries, a pandemic would be a civilization buster. As you well know, that has happened in history for many reasons and is certainly happening today. We have only to look at genocidal campaigns in Africa, war in the Middle East, and cruel dictatorships such as North Korea to know how fragile civilization can be.

DennisCat 14:01

History Lover – at 08:59

Yes some countries will survive and some will crumble. I keep thinking about the Aztec and how they crumbled undered the virus of smallpox more than under the attack of the Europeans. But viruses alone cannot kill ideas like democracy.

“….Outnumbered, the Spanish were forced to flee. In the fighting, the Spanish soldier carrying smallpox died. After the battle, the Aztecs contracted the virus from the invaders’ bodies. Cortes would not return to the capital until August 1521. In the meantime smallpox devastated the Aztec population. It killed most of the Aztec army, the emperor, and 25% of the overall population. A Spanish priest left this description: “As the Indians did not know the remedy of the disease…they died in heaps, like bedbugs. In many places it happened that everyone in a house died and, as it was impossible to bury the great number of dead, they pulled down the houses over them so that their homes become their tombs.” On Cortés’ return, he found the Aztec army’s chain of command in ruins. The soldiers who lived were still weak from the disease. Cortés then easily defeated the Aztecs and entered Tenochtitlán, where he found that smallpox had killed more Aztecs than had the cannons. The Spaniards said that they could not walk through the streets without stepping on the bodies of smallpox victims.”

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox

LMWatBullRunat 20:44

HL

Mah most verah humble apologies, Maaaam!

As an adoptive southerner I know whereof you speak.

FiddlerDave-

Habeas Corpus is still written in our hearts, whether or not the writing can be read by those presently in charge. And the Bill of Rights is still the highest law in this country. My oath is to the Constitution and the Bill of Rights.

I may be antique, but I stick by my principles and my oaths. As I said elsewhere, after a pandemic I can guarantee that the Bill of Rights will be upheld within 700 yards of my position as long as I am breathing.

Fiddlerdave – at 21:33

It may be written in our hearts, but a government agency NOW can simply “disappear” you by secret proclamation of your status to be “supporter of the enemy”, whatever that may be decided to be by the same agency. There is no public knowledge. There are no appeals. There is no oversight by anyone other than the person/party who wished to “disappear” you. Your family can call the police, papers, CIA, their congressman, and NOBODY, by threat of similar punishment, can mention even the fact you were taken. No Freedom of Information laws apply. You are just, simply, mysteriously, gone. You ALSO can legally be sent to a foreign country, one favorite right now is Uzbekistan, where boiling alive is a favorite interrogation technique and I am quite sure you will confess to anything. Where are your rights then? What part of the constitution matters or applies to assist you? We now have this NOW! And this will improve when civilization is under pandemic conditions or a city is blown up? I am not suggesting our current administration would do this on a wide scale, but you can be certain we will have a leader who WILL, and you won’t even know. And you cannot say “THIS accusation has Habeas and THIS accusation does not” - To have a SINGLE EXCEPTION is the ultimate trump card to give a leader who desires ultimate control his ultimate excuse for any desire he may have, unquestionable, unknowable, unappealable power over the freedom, life , and death over every person in the land. There is NO contract in the case where one side can simply set it aside on his whim. That is why Habeas Corpus was the foundation upon which all other freedoms could grow, and these freedoms cannot exist in its absence.

Kathy in FL – at 22:30

Fiddlerdave – at 23:41

Never said that I thought all subsidies bad any more than I said I thought all subsidies are good. When any subsidy system is put into practice, it is with a good intent. This is whether the subsidies support individuals, families, or farmers, etc.

The problems arise when those receiving the subsidies become dependent on them and they become permanent rather than temporary. There should be firm limitations on assistance, financial and time limitations at the very least.

I believe in the free market economy. It isn’t always fair. Good people sometimes cannot survive in such an economy … but it is better than most of the alternatives out there. It is also the most honest … so long as people don’t muck it up trying to make things “fair.” Grown ups should be mature enough to realize there is no such thing as true fairness.

Those same concepts are going to be important to understand during recovering from any world effecting event, such as a pandemic.

What would happen if a few neighborhoods were doing reasonably well using the barter system … doing well until someone came along and told them that they had to value various barter items in a different way from other barter items? Suddenly the system loses some of its free-trade ability to meet the needs of the traders involved. Eventually too much fiddling and the barter system collapses leaving those neighborhoods back to being in a bad way.

I realize some attitudes about are based on perceptions and experience within the system. It will be these perceptions and experiences that we will carry into a post-pandemic economy.

Medical Maven – at 22:48

Kathy in Fl at 22:30-Great post. The equitable, fair-minded “utopias” just end up making everybody equally miserable, (and equally unmotivated I might add).

On the fence and leaning – at 23:14
Fiddlerdave – at 23:15

Kathy in FL – at 22:30 I don’t get it then. I agree that a free market economy is excellant, and I would love to see one in the USA someday. I find it amusing that the many powerful forces also talk in favor of it EXCEPT for those things that would cost them money. However, in the arena of a power grid for the country, I see that as a issue more important than many other issues most are comfortable with - highways, et. al. Our country is destroyed as thoroughly without power as it is by a nuclear blast. I don’t undertand why the preparation of a grid that will withstand natural or enemy attack is not on the same level as an anti-misslie system There is NO incentive in the free market for this kind of readyness, which is inherently unprofitable except to the existence of the society as a WHOLE. A rickety, just-able-to-handle-the-load system is the most profitable system for a capitalist to do, and I would love to see any for-profit industry in the USA that has produced any other result concerning preparedness for an uncommon problem (hard to see examples of preparedness for common problems). So do we sit here and say “we OUGHT to have something that works?” And I will reiterate, please give me some kind of reasoning on why a totally private utility system would care about 100 year pandemics or terrorist attacks? Any examples AT ALL? That is why we have a “socialist” federal military defense, which should include our power grid. I am not talking about cars, movies, TVS, or ANY other industry, I am talking about the power grid that makes ALL other industries POSSIBLE!

Fiddlerdave – at 23:22

I don’t mean to shout with caps, just haven’t figured out some of the more subtle emphasis methods in this software. :) And I have no hope anymore this country will be ready for anything coming, so I find, other than sorrow for the children of this nation and what they won’t have when we are back at an 1800′s level of existence (and population level), that its only a philosphical exercise to have these discussions. Please don’t assume I am jumping up and down. I enjoy this, I hope others do too.

Kathy in FL – at 23:52

Fiddlerdave – at 23:22

I my opinion? Its perception. Free trade is a separate animal from what you are talking about. Free trade is about having a system that optimizes itself.

If the people utilizing a product have no fear of a pandemic … or any other grand size event that theoretically could shake their ability to obtain the product … then just-in-time or what ever other “trick of the trade” holds no threat and they should focus on income maximization on those principles.

However, if the people/person utilizing a product foresee a catastrophic event … even if that event was only hypothetical, though reasonably possible … then they would maximize their needs based on those beliefs.

Protection of a major economic product … electricity for example … isn’t in violation of free trade. Its a protection of an asset.

Of course there are probably ways to go about that “protection” that would be a violation of free trade.

Sometimes you have to walk a fine line.

Its the same as when I have to decide to spend my limited budget dollars. While I’m participating in free market trade by choosing where I spend those dollars, paying more for a product that I feel deserves being paid more for … as well as the reverse … I also chose to protect certain of my needs by paying for stuff that I might not need immediately, but just in case.

In my example I just goods as an example, but you could view services in the same way.

The question becomes how much do we still invest in our current life and how much do we invest in our expected future life? If we all truly believe that a pandemic is coming, then why are we not totally invested … financially, time-wise, etc. … in that expected future? And do we then moan and groan if the event comes to pass and we didn’t do everything we could to “protect” the goods and services that we need to continue? Or, if it never happens do we moan and groan about the money and time we did spend in preparation that could of been put to use in other areas of our lives? Perception.

28 October 2006

anonymous – at 06:46

Inthehills:Jefferson admired the great unwashed masses rather than the preening elite of his time. It would have been Hamilton who wished to create a meritocracy. Hamilton thought that the great discerning factor of self worth was wealth. His ideas concerning funding the national debt after the Revolution were more about creating a plutocracy than they were about honoring debts.

Jefferson placed his stock with the farmer on the frontier. He distrusted large standing armies. As president, he discovered the only practical way to curtail growing bureaucracies, he cut off funding. As a slave holder and fancier of brown sugar, he had the good sense to write about the way things ought to be in the Declaration rather than write about the way they were. He could just as easily have said: “We hold these truths to be self evident that all white men are created equal.” Jefferson was far from stupid and no doubt understood full well that succeeding generations would consider him a hypocrite. Thank God that he was less concerned about his legacy and more concerned about giving us a goal to strive for.

It was violations of habeas corpus that helped sweep Jefferson into to the White House. The sedition acts were being used by the federalist to silence their opponents. I find it an irony of history that the man most responsible for shredding the constitution in the 19th century freed the slaves. The man most responsible for shredding it in the 20th century instituted the great entitlement programs that so many enjoy today.

We will soon see how the body politic reacts to the current transgressions. It is in my nature to hold in great suspicion anyone who holds himself out as worthy enough to tell the rest of us how to manage our private lives. In my personal experience, I have found the do-gooder elite to be some of the most offending fascists. Those who would save us on the local level may in fact be the most dangerous. Some pretty terrible images came out of New Orleans. The little old lady in her kitchen being tackled by three linebacker policemen comes to mind.

Cloud9 – at 07:03

I failed to sign the post.

inthehills – at 09:23

anonymous at6:46 john adams,not jefferson,initiated the alien and sedition act.it was intended as a way to control the french intrigues in the colonys. it was was obviously abused.jefferson rebuked the act. as to jefferson’s “brown sugar”,who bloody cares. jefferson knew that slavery would eventually rend the new country.all his slaves were freed upon his death.he died conflicted and poor. he was a romantic,and certainly human,but his words sir;his words.

LMWatBullRunat 09:28

Action has consequence.

Ideas and philosophy guide all action.

Those who doubt the power of ideas, and like to think in concretes, are likely to see some dreadfully real results.

In the aftermath of a severe pandemic, with present paradigms shattered, it will be easier to replant the Enlightenment philosophy.

Cloud9 – at 09:57

Inthehills: You are correct. It was the Adams administration that championed the alien and sedition acts. The sedition acts were used imprison Jeffersonian Republicans. Mr. Jefferson and Mr. Madison led the nullifiers which put out the idea that a state legislature could determine an act of congress to be unconstitutional. This was the first practical step towards civil war. Adams was a federalist bent on concentration of national power. Jefferson was in the opposite corner.

Abraxas – at 11:34

I do a lot of genealogical research. One of the thing that I’ve discovered from census records (mostly from IL, AR, AL, MS, LA, TX so this may not hold true across all states) is that education was not a direct line from uneducated to educated. When there is a event that disrupts society and the economy, there is generation of children that are less educated than their parents.

An event that disrupted one generation was the Civil War. Many of the children (in the research that I’ve done) born from 1853–1875 to adults who could read and reported in later census records that they could not read or write. This was quite a surprise to me. I had assumed that education progressed in a straight line with each successive generation being better educated than the previous.

By the time the Civil War generation began to have children the economy had improved and the educational system was back in place and the majority of the children born after 1875 could read and write even when their parents could not.

When an event occurs that disrupts society, formal education is one of the things that are moved down on one’s list of priorities to be replaced with practical education: can you butcher a pig, build a fire, plant a crop, etc.

It makes sense. If a family is having difficulty with the essentials of life, food and shelter, being formally educated does not put food on the table. But, when the impact of a disrupting event lessens, then education is again a worthwhile endeavor, and having the ability to calculate interest or compose a letter is a valuable skill worth investing time and effort in to learn.

If one accepts that this broken line of education historically happens then will it not be magnified this time? Our world requires many educated and skilled workers to keep it on functioning well.

Is it possible that we will survive the pandemic with an infrastructure relatively intact to see it slowly disintegrate at a later time?

diana – at 11:50

It’s my perception, correct or incorrect, that many baby boomers were coddled as children, and many have coddled their children even more. Public education is expensive and pretty much wasted on a percentage of the kids out there. I have talked to bright kids, I’ve talked to the ones who go to school, but never read a book that hasn’t been forced on them. Does education give anyone common sense? I think that is something inate in a person, and probably one of the most important attributes that will be needed in a post pandemic or multiple disaster period. If it comes to that, I think we will have a period that is similar to post World War 11 England. Rationing of resources. Black markets. Entepreneurs.

Abraxas – at 12:15

On one of the flu blogs in the last year I read a post from a young man in Argentina. He was talking about the economic collapse in that country and how it now had a flourishing black market.

One of the things that he mentioned was gold. He recommended that you should start accumulating gold, not good gold coins, but bulk gold: rings, chains, etc.

He claimed that there were gold buyers everywhere, but that they paid a set price for gold: any gold coins or jewelry because a street trader has no way to verify the quality of the gold.

This sounds reasonable.

mojo – at 13:18

Do you think the revision of the insurrection law on the 17th was done because of the fear of a pandemic? I think this was done in the middle of the night and I haven’t seen much press on it. “Subtitle E: Defense Against Terrorism and Related Security Matters

“(Sec. 1042) Revises federal provisions allowing the President to utilize the Armed Forces in connection with interference with federal and state law to allow the President to employ the Armed Forces and National Guard in federal service to restore public order in cases of [b] natural disaster [/b], epidemic or other public health emergency, terrorist attack or incident, or [b] domestic violence [/b]. Requires the President to notify Congress within 14 days of the exercise of such authority. Authorizes the President, when exercising such authority, to direct the Secretary to provide supplies, services, and equipment to persons affected by the situation.”

This effectively takes control of the national guard from the states. “In a stealth maneuver, President Bush has signed into law a provision which, according to Senator Patrick Leahy (D-Vermont), will actually encourage the President to declare federal martial law (1). It does so by revising the Insurrection Act, a set of laws that limits the President’s ability to deploy troops within the United States. The Insurrection Act (10 U.S.C.331 −335) has historically, along with the Posse Comitatus Act (18 U.S.C.1385), helped to enforce strict prohibitions on military involvement in domestic law enforcement. With one cloaked swipe of his pen, Bush is seeking to undo those prohibitions.

Public Law 109–364, or the “John Warner Defense Authorization Act of 2007″ (H.R.5122) (2), which was signed by the commander in chief on October 17th, 2006, in a private Oval Office ceremony, allows the President to declare a “public emergency” and station troops anywhere in America and take control of state-based National Guard units without the consent of the governor or local authorities, in order to “suppress public disorder.”

inthehills – at 16:13

control,yes. for a pandemic,doubtfull.

annonymous – at 17:29

mojo – at 13:18 “…With one cloaked swipe of his pen, Bush is seeking to undo those prohibitions. …”

Yes, but with one correction. It’s already a done deal.

EOD – at 19:10

mojo – at 13:18 Do you think the revision of the insurrection law on the 17th was done because of the fear of a pandemic? I think we are headed for some extreme times here in the US (and around the world in general), BF or no BF. I think the President is aware and preparing to take action necessary to keep the country from falling into anarchy. There are many here and elsewhere preparing not only for the BF but for other things as well. Within two years a war will break out involving Iran, whether Iran starts it, or Israel or us really doesn’t matter but it will come to our shores in the form of terror cells and WMD’s of some sort. Any one thing is reason enough to have a healthy level of fear, I just hope & pray we don’t see them come at the same time.

Fiddlerdave – at 19:35

“Anarchy” is always being defined by current leaderships as any condition where the current leaders is not in charge. My rather more cynical view is that power hungry leaders the world over will view the pandemic catastrophe (like “terrorism”)as an opportunity to gain and establish additional power. “of course” we need to keep “order”. Opposing ANY policy is treasonous and defines you as an enemy (“You are either with us or against us”). “Of course” we will need to protect the military, the centers of power and property first and foremost at ANY cost to the citizenry, how can the citizens live without their leaders?. Frankly, the military will only incidently hand out food or vaccines - its primary purpose will be to establish and hold martial law, suspension of rights and consolidate the current leader’s power. Elections will be suspended, or held in areas slected to support the current regimes. Private armies will become even more common, run by multinationals witht he approval and even payment from governments. Many leaders will launch wars or land grabs on neighbors, even if only as an excuse to distract the citizenry from the hell the leaders should have been helping to be prepared for. With the current hard push to activate and establish insurrection laws and abrogation of all rights via terror fears the world over, something terrible like pandemic will “fill the bill” for completion of these designs that far too many people remain complacent about, or support in order to be “safe”.

Texas Rose – at 19:45

“My oath is to the Constitution and the Bill of Rights.”

Absolutely. And I will fight to the death to protect and maintain it.

The revised insurrection law guts Posse Comitatus. I’m old enough to remember Kent State. Will we see another in my lifetime?

LMWatBullRunat 19:52

That would be…….. very unfortunate.

Closed and Continued - Bronco Bill – at 20:25

Thread is long and needs to be continued, so click here to go to Part II

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Vitamin C

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Vitamin C

31 August 2006

Ima-Prepper – at 03:32

I stumbled across a book on Amazon written by David J. Kennedy

Forgive me if this has been discussed, but in a nutshell the meat of the book appears to say that doses of Vitamin C is the answer to the Bird Flu problem and the warding off. The reviews on this book suprised me.

My understanding is that with H2H/ and or Avian influenza further effect those with the stongest immune systems as they are more susptible to death due to the fact their own immune system attacks the body. Anyone have insite to these Vitamin C claims that appear to be snake oil and misleading?

Ima-Prepper – at 03:33

Whoops here is the book.. http://tinyurl.com/o6w76

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 07:35

The first review of the book was from Dr. Robert F. Cathcart III, M.D. “The ‘experts’ in this disease are either unbelievably stupid or have their heads up the rear of the drug industry.”

I guess refering to Tamiflu.

Others gave glowing reports about the book. Wonder if anyone has already written to them using the links by their names & invited them to Fluwikie so they could compare info?

I don’t know anything about the book, but I’d sure hate to hange my life on the Vitimin C hook & expect to live through this.

INFOMASS – at 08:07

Fluwiki earlier (May 5th Forum on Alternative Treatments) had a piece from Snowy Owl citing a group of UK doctors that suggested high doses of Vitamin C together with Vitamin A and zinc, to be used as a POSSIBLE preventative and at double doses if you get sick. The report was, “The Pivotal Role for Natural Products in Countering an Avian Influenza Pandemic.” Their report was submitted to the WHO in March but I have not heard of any animal trials that tested their suggested therapies of 3 GRAMS of C a day for adults spread over the day; 25 mg of zinc and 20,000 IU of Beta-Carotene, with double doses when sick. Children six and under to get half doses. These doses ok for up to one month, they say. The UK report also suggested very high IV doses of Vitamin C, but only in a hospital setting. High doses of C cause bowel looseness and intake should be reduced if this happens.

Calandriel – at 21:15

Be careful with fat-soluable vitamins like A, D, E and K…these can be stored in the body up to toxic levels (unlike the water-soluable vitamins, which are expelled in the urine.) Investigate well before self-medicating…

INFOMASS – at 21:28

Calandriel: You are right, and pregnant or lactating women also have to restrict intakes of Vitamin A, although the UK doctors say that beta-carotene is supposed to be safer for reasons I do not understand. Since Vitamin E thins the blood, that is also something to consider. A lot of these suggestions should be studied and qualified but might work or help in a dire situation.

heddiecalifornia – at 22:56

Just read an article last week in our local paper, The Argus, about increasing incidence of rickets in Oakland, California in small children seen at the Children’s Hospital. They have had 57 cases in the past year, it appears to be increasing.

    This is in “Sunny” California! 
  The conclusion was that a great number of mothers and infants were not getting enough sunlight nor vitamin D in their diets.  If mom didn’t eat foods high in vitamin D (milk, etc. which have it added) and didn’t go out in the sun, the nursing infants would not get enough and could be seriously ill by six months of age. 
   The article mentioned that there is an increasing lack of vitamin D in people’s diets overall; moms and kids kept indoors to avoid street violence etc. need more.  They noted that in most cases the amount in an ordinary daily multivitamin would be sufficient for most people. 
no name – at 23:12

Just found this on Goggle. Hope the post of site works…first time to try.

{http://wolvertonmd.com/intergrativetherapies/vitamincnew.htm}

no name – at 23:14

Sorry so long of website. Can anyone see what I did incorrectly? Should it have been [these brackets] instead? Thanks.

preppiechick – at 23:18

(yes, lower case brackets- [ and ] )

preppiechick – at 23:22

forgot to mention, you need TWO on each end ( like this ? You also put the http owr www after the first set of double brackets, then the vertical line (|) which is upper case, next to the brackets, then give it a name, then the second set of brackets.

pogge – at 23:24

(yes, lower case brackets- [ and ] )

Actually, a double pair of square brackets and a | between link and link text as in:

[[http://www.somedomain.com/page.htm|link text]]

preppiechick – at 23:24

UGH it is not easy to break it down to show in steps!

double brackets, like this just no spaces ( for display purposes only!)

[ [ and ] ]

28 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:18

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Page last modified on October 28, 2006, at 08:18 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / 2020 Special on Right Now

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: 2020 Special on Right Now

30 August 2006

preppiechick – at 21:30

I think the abc show (20/20) that is on right now, “Last Days on Earth” will talk about disease -maybe AF. Sorry if I’m wrong, I am just watching it now, and really didn’t see the beginning or preview.

Gary Near Death Valley – at 21:39

let us on the west coast know if it is worth watching and or taping if you would. Thanks

preppiechick – at 21:48

too late to tape (would take me that long to re-set up my recorder), The general stuff, so far, is pretty interesting - most of what a lot of us know already, or have watched on discovery, history or natural geographic channels - super volcanoes, super computers, etc. I think it’s good that it’s on MSM, a lot of people who don’t watch those other channels may learn something. Still waiting for the “disease” segment (it’s a two hour show, started at 8 pm CST)

Bronco Bill – at 21:52

Gary Near Death Valley – at 21:39 --- Here on Left Coast it’s on at 9PM on ABC. For most of us out here, that’s either Ch. 3 or 7 on cable

Gary Near Death Valley – at 21:53

Comes on here Pacific time at 9 pm so will slip a tape into the deck and tape it also and then later transfer it to a DVD. I have a DVD of the Black Death I taped a couple of months back, and numerous Bird Flu specials over the last year or so. Thanks Preppiechick

Ima-Prepper – at 22:08

I caught the last part of 20/20. For those who missed it, this is pretty much what it is badsed on.

http://www.livescience.com/forcesofnature/top10_naturaldisasterthreats_us.html

Livescience came out with early this year

Ima-Prepper – at 22:08

I caught the last part of 20/20. For those who missed it, this is pretty much what it is badsed on.

http://tinyurl.com/8jxqy

Livescience came out with early this year

Ima-Prepper – at 22:09

sorry :( I tried to stop my post to use the tiny URL, apparently I was too late

spiritaxe – at 22:12

doomed,,,,, we’r all doomed…………………………….. oh wait sienfelds on………….

preppiechick – at 22:40

spiritaxe – at 22:12

If we’re all doomed, then why the good sized prep/stock, that you claim in the ppf thread? (if it was a joke, sorry if i didn’t catch the sarcasm)

As for the special, small mention of h5n1, as part of the #2 threat, but then moved on to a manmade biological threat as more probable. BUT, at least they didn’t underplay h5n1, by saying it’s unlikely. They did a good consequences segment, though, about what would happen if an infectious disease was on your way, and how long a solution would take. Of course, as in all of these specials, they are never long enough to really get in depth, but maybe someone else will find us because of this.

Ima-Prepper – at 22:44

The part about engineered disease was very disturbing. Reminded me of the proffesor who advocated killing off 90% of the world population with ebola to control population.

Story here:

http://tinyurl.com/oqtgc

TROLL ALERT – at 23:02
silversage – at 23:11

spiritaxe – at 22:12 is on a roll tonight, DH and I have been having a good time following some of the threads. The giggles help keep the PPF down.

spiritaxe – at 23:17

well i love to entertain,,,,,, I’m not the brightest bulb on the tree,,,,,,, but,, , i’ve been hanging here for quite awile. and,,, i’ve seen them come on and go out. :).

mods He’s baaack – at 23:44
anonymous – at 23:47

RE Ima-Prepper at 22:44 -

From Wikipedia:

Pianka has stated that Mims took his statements out of context* and that Pianka was stating what would happen from biological principles alone if present human population trends continue, and that he was not in any way advocating for it to happen. The host of the speech, the Texas Academy of Sciences, has released a statement stating that “many of Dr. Pianka’s statements have been severely misconstrued* and sensationalized.

31 August 2006

Gary Near Death Valley – at 01:28

Well of all the things that was shown,,,,,,,,as they said the H5N1 pandemic might be the largest pandemic the world has ever seen. Glossed over it, and moved on, but they did make the statement.

bird-dog – at 01:40

THOMAS FRIEDEN, the New York City Commissioner for Health & Mental Hygiene was on Charlie Rose tonight and IMO did a major tap-dance around the possibility of H5N1 becoming a major problem. BIG TIME!!!

Charlie Rose had to repeatedly ask him to be more specific and when T. F. said basically not-to-worry as it’s only a bird problem, humans can’t catch it, Charlie strongly asked about Indonesia and the cluster and the guy said, yea well, not a problem, only once or so, on an intimate basis. He said that as long as people washed their hands (here) we’d be fine as there will be a vaccine to protect us all.

Boy am I relieved! Whew. Hope my Kelly Kettle hasn’t been shipped out yet…

He could barely look Charlie in the eyes as he spoke. He *did not* want to talk about it (again, IMO). After watching 20/20 with it’s dire but somehow more realistic/helpful take on H5N1 and then this guy, my stomach was spinning (head too). Charlie needs to do another full hour on AF. He seemed to be practically rolling his eyes at Dr. Frieden and C.R. is usually so tactfull- guess he let it slip tonight! LOL

It was infuriating though!

Bronco Bill – at 01:53

However, the show DID give a good amount of time to asking the question: “What if a deadly disease were on it’s way to YOUR town? What would YOU do to avoid it?”

They made you think. What would YOU do? Would you go to the grocery store? Would you go to work? Would you go to a sports stadium? They put a bug in peoples’ ears to make them think about what could happen if they didn’t have the preps to SIP.

Gary Near Death Valley – at 01:55

When TSHTF both Charlie and Friden both will not be found to further question because they will be holed up where ever they will be holed up in…….and “like sands thru the hour glass ,,,,so are the days of our lives”,,,,,

Monotreme – at 02:06

bird-dog – at 01:40

THOMAS FRIEDEN, the New York City Commissioner for Health & Mental Hygiene was on Charlie Rose tonight and IMO did a major tap-dance around the possibility of H5N1 becoming a major problem. BIG TIME!!!

Charlie Rose had to repeatedly ask him to be more specific and when T. F. said basically not-to-worry as it’s only a bird problem, humans can’t catch it, Charlie strongly asked about Indonesia and the cluster and the guy said, yea well, not a problem, only once or so, on an intimate basis. He said that as long as people washed their hands (here) we’d be fine as there will be a vaccine to protect us all.

---

This is why I have been saying New York City has been written off, and they don’t want people leaving. Is it possible that Mr. Frieden is really as stupid as he seems? Well, maybe, but what about the Mayor? He’s not stupid and yet he allows Frieden to say such obviously false things. Entering NYC is like going into an alternative universe where bird flu is nothing to worry about and anyone who expresses any concern is a loon.

The situation is very different in other cities. Good for Charlie Rose for pushing Frieden. His next phone call should be to Michael Osterholm, if they’ll let him into NYC ;-)

bird-dog – at 02:13

BB, if you meant 20/20, I agree. You should check out the message board though, many of the post-ers really trashed the show esp. re. BF. If they only knew… <sigh>

bird-dog – at 02:28

Monotreme, Ah, yes, I swore loudly at the tv, delivered a few hand signals, and surprisingly felt like punching him. I’m still angry! Many people will suffer and die thanks to him and tomorrow when I wake up I’ll comment (politely!) on Charlie’s message board and ask to hear from Michael Osterholm in a follow-up show.

I really am usually more restained, not always though! :-)

LauraBat 07:33

I agree that the 20/20 BF portion was good and relevant - although too short. However, so much of the show focused on these HUGE natural disasters (asteroids, etc.) over which we have no control and we’re all toast anyway (basically no life would survive). It left you feeling like “Well, there’s not a darn thing I can do about any of this. It’s out of my hands so what’s the point of prepping?” I did like the question - “what would you do if you knew the exact date of your death? Would you live your life now differently?” Makes you think huh?

preppiechick – at 09:51

I did notice, that when they talked about the beginning of a pandemic and how it would travel rapidly (on 20/20), they showed a picture of an airport schedule board —and most of the flights were from Indonesia! (Maybe someone has been reading the indo thread.) Pretty sad about NYC, though I don’t see my city faring much better (no real plan, political fighting, etc.)…

OKbirdwatcherat 10:31

bird-dog at 01:40 -

“He could barely look Charlie in the eyes as he spoke.”

Watch what they DO, not what they SAY.

banshee – at 11:53

Regarding the Charlie Rose show, you can watch last night’s episode here: The Charlie Rose Show

Free of charge right now.

bird-dog – at 12:06

I just sent Charlie Rose an email encouraging him to invite Michael Osterholm. I also told him how disappointed I was in Thomas Freiden, how impressed I was that he, Charlie, ‘pushed’ him, and as usual, recommened the Flu Wiki.

also, thanks, Banshee.

banshee – at 12:18

The BF portion of the Charlie Rose show starts around minute 21 if you don’t feel like watching the whole thing. It is only a couple of minutes long.

Sahara – at 12:51

Since we’re talking TV, did anyone catch the “Survivorman” on last Sunday? Maybe it was a repeat, maybe we already talked about it - I don’t know I’ve been so busy I have had to become an occasional lurker here.

I thought that show did a good job of hammering home some of the basics. His “for Pete’s sake at least have a flashlight that works!” message was good. He said a few times that you really ought to have a little survival kit and some food in the house. It was more for short term disaster survival, but at least it might get some people thinking.

I love Survivorman.

Jane – at 18:49

Is Survivorman on cable? (Sounds like a show for me, but no cable here.)

 The bird flu part on  20/20 mentioned that the 1918 pandemic had a 3% fatality rate, and this one could be much worse.  So that was good information, at least.  I missed the last part, after the topic of bioweapons began and then the commercial break.  Was there any further pandemic information or anything on prepping? 

Also, weren’t these 7 topics in order of likelihood? Plague was number 2, anyhow.

Bronco Bill – at 20:01

Was there any further pandemic information or anything on prepping?

Nope. That was it. Except fot the number 1 topic—Global Warming and the possibilities of massive water shortages worldwide.

CAMikeat 21:57

Good news: BF and the possibility of a pandemic were discussed. Bad news: the upshot was that the possibility was low.

Regardless, I wish there would have been some information about prepping. Lots of reasons to do it. Can’t think of a reason not to.

Mike

28 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:17

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Food Storage Questions

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Food Storage Questions

31 August 2006

Carrey in VA – at 16:42

I know there was a thread like this some where, but I can’t find it. So heres another.

I’ve got almost 100lbs of popcorn stored in ziplock bags. The past few times we’ve tried to pop it, about a third of what is put in the pot pops, the rest just sits there.

Hubbys says it’s cause the kernels have dried out and there wasn’t enough water in the kernels to explode and make them pop.

Anybody know for sure? And is there anyway to save it?

OKbirdwatcherat 17:50

Possibly the popcorn was “past it’s prime” when you bought it? Who knows how long some things are warehoused or sit on the store shelves before we buy them. Guess it probably had a “use by” date though? I usually keep popcorn in the freezer, but hard to do with 100 lbs:-O

Kathy in FL – at 17:54

Several reason why it could have been too pooped to pop. <grin>

But you can grind popcorn kernels and use them like cornmeal if you don’t want to waste what you have.

Prepping Gal – at 17:55

I have no idea if this would work but if you used a air popper then I would try doing the old conventional away on the stove and see what happens. I’d give it a try.

Love Texas – at 18:22

In foods and grains there are different grades, it could be that your corn is a low grade for pop corn, but still sellable----just a thought. I would check with the company I bought it from.

AVanartsat 18:30

I tried grinding popcorn to make corn flour one time. What I ended up with was something that could have been used in a sand blaster. That stuff was really hard to grind too.

Carrey in VA – at 19:03

I bought it from Sams brand name might be ACT II We normally pop it in oil in a stirring popcorn popper. I’m hoping it’s the popper and not the corn.

I was just wondering if soaking it in water, then letting it dry out again would do any good.

Jane – at 19:38

I sometimes put a couple of bags of popcorn in a Tupperware-type container with a damp paper towel and let it sit to absorb the moisture, the same as with brown sugar. (No guarantees about percentages, but it should help some.)

no name – at 21:24

I have divided my bulk preps into small usable quanities and put them in small mylar bags. Put in moisture and oxygen absorbers, sealed the bags with heat.

My plan is to put these small sealed mylar bags into food grade (hpde triangle with a 2 inside the triangle) yellow 5 gallon buckets.

Question? Do I need to line the 5 gallon buckets with another larger mylar bag? Or can I just put the smaller sealed mylar bags directly into the 5 gallon bucket and seal with the lid (which has a gasket).

Thanks in advance for your assistance.

PS: I don’t need a tin foil hat…my kitchen is a sea of silver mylar bags!!!

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 21:29

no name, just the small mylar bags, well sealed, will be plenty of protection; that and storing in a moderate temperature & they should last you for years and years!

Mari – at 21:35

no name – at 21:24 - Note that not all plastics with the 2 inside the triangle and HDPE stamped on them are food-grade plastics. Usually the problem is with colored plastics where the dyes have not been certified as food grade. Best to check with the manufacturer. If you’re going to seal your food inside mylar bags, you’re probably OK anyway.

no name – at 21:42

Thanks you. Thank you.

28 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:16

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Page last modified on October 28, 2006, at 08:16 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Qinghai HA in Indonesia

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Qinghai HA in Indonesia

explanation of sequence letter codes

15 June 2006

niman – at 18:33

The sequences for HA in Indonesian H5N1 isolates came out today. Most have the H5N1 wild type cleavage site, RERRRKKR, but one, A/duck/Badung-Bali/05/2005(H5N1), has the Qinghai cleavage site GERRRKKR, as well as one of the polymorphisms in the Niger H5N1 (Qinghai-strain) sequence.

All reported Qinghai-strain isolates have PB2 E627K and the above isolate in Indonesia may be a source for E627K in Indonesia. It has been reported by Declan Butler to be in A/Indonesia/6/2005 and he has speculated that it is in H5N1 from the Sumatra cluster.

niman – at 18:36

There isolates at Los Alamos have the sequences encoding the Qinghai cleavage site

   DQ447199  A/chicken/Egypt/960N3–004/2006           2006  H5N1 

   DQ406728  A/chicken/Nigeria/641/2006               2006  H5N1    

   AM231714  A/common pochard/France/06167/2006       2006  H5N1    

   DQ515984  A/Cygnus olor/Czech Republic/5170/2006   2006  H5N1    

   DQ435200  A/domestic cat/Iraq/820/2006             2006  H5N1    

   DQ435201  A/domestic goose/Iraq/812/2006           2006  H5N1    

   DQ659113  A/duck/Niger/914/2006                    2006  H5N1    

   DQ464377  A/Egypt/2782-NAMRU3/2006                 2006  H5N1    

   DQ435202  A/Iraq/207-NAMRU3/2006                   2006  H5N1    

   DQ458992  A/mallard/Bavaria/1/2006                 2006  H5N1    

   DQ449031  A/mallard/Italy/332/2006                 2006  H5N1    

   DQ440535  A/swan/Iran/754/2006                     2006  H5N1    

   DQ412997  A/swan/Italy/179/06                      2006  H5N1    

   ISDN136919  A/swan/Italy/179/2006                  2006  H5N1    

   AM236074  A/turkey/France/06222/2006               2006  H5N1    

   AB233319  A/bar-headed goose/Mongolia/1/05         2005  H5N1    

   DQ095621  A/Bar-headed Goose/Qinghai/12/05         2005  H5N1    

   DQ095617  A/Bar-headed Goose/Qinghai/5/05          2005  H5N1    

   DQ095612  A/Bar-headed Goose/Qinghai/59/05         2005  H5N1    

   DQ095615  A/Bar-headed Goose/Qinghai/60/05         2005  H5N1    

   DQ095618  A/Bar-headed Goose/Qinghai/61/05         2005  H5N1    

   DQ095620  A/Bar-headed Goose/Qinghai/62/05         2005  H5N1    

   DQ095622  A/Bar-headed Goose/Qinghai/65/05         2005  H5N1    

   DQ095623  A/Bar-headed Goose/Qinghai/67/05         2005  H5N1    

   DQ095613  A/Bar-headed Goose/Qinghai/68/05         2005  H5N1    

   DQ095619  A/Bar-headed Goose/Qinghai/75/05         2005  H5N1    

   DQ100554  A/black-headed goose/Qinghai/1/2005      2005  H5N1    

   DQ100555  A/black-headed goose/Qinghai/2/2005      2005  H5N1    

   DQ100556  A/black-headed gull/Qinghai/1/2005       2005  H5N1    

   DQ095616  A/Brown-headed Gull/Qinghai/3/05         2005  H5N1    

   DQ340848  A/chicken/Crimea/1/2005                  2005  H5N1    

   DQ449632  A/chicken/Kurgan/05/2005                 2005  H5N1    

   DQ323672  A/chicken/Kurgan/3/2005                  2005  H5N1    

   DQ190859  A/chicken/Novosibirsk/64/05              2005  H5N1    

   DQ190860  A/chicken/Novosibirsk/65/05              2005  H5N1    

   DQ190861  A/chicken/Novosibirsk/66/05              2005  H5N1    

   DQ231242  A/chicken/Suzdalka/Nov-11/05             2005  H5N1    

   DQ231241  A/chicken/Suzdalka/Nov-12/05             2005  H5N1    

   DQ279301  A/chicken/Tula/10/2005                   2005  H5N1    

   DQ389158  A/Cygnus olor/Astrakhan/Ast05–2−1/2005   2005  H5N1    

   DQ434889  A/Cygnus olor/Astrakhan/Ast05–2−10/2005  2005  H5N1    

   DQ343502  A/Cygnus olor/Astrakhan/Ast05–2−2/2005   2005  H5N1    

   DQ358746  A/Cygnus olor/Astrakhan/Ast05–2−3/2005   2005  H5N1    

   DQ363918  A/Cygnus olor/Astrakhan/Ast05–2−4/2005   2005  H5N1    

   DQ365004  A/Cygnus olor/Astrakhan/Ast05–2−5/2005   2005  H5N1    

   DQ364996  A/Cygnus olor/Astrakhan/Ast05–2−6/2005   2005  H5N1    

   DQ363923  A/Cygnus olor/Astrakhan/Ast05–2−7/2005   2005  H5N1    

   DQ399540  A/Cygnus olor/Astrakhan/Ast05–2−8/2005   2005  H5N1    

   DQ399547  A/Cygnus olor/Astrakhan/Ast05–2−9/2005   2005  H5N1    

   DQ449640  A/duck/Kurgan/08/2005                    2005  H5N1    

   DQ190858  A/duck/Novosibirsk/56/2005               2005  H5N1    

   DQ230522  A/duck/Novosibirsk/56/2005               2005  H5N1    

   DQ320922  A/Environment/Qinghai/31/2005            2005  H5N1    

   DQ100557  A/great black-headed gull/Qinghai/1/2005 2005  H5N1    

   DQ095614  A/Great Black-headed Gull/Qinghai/2/05   2005  H5N1    

   DQ320919  A/migratory duck/Jiangxi/2136/2005       2005  H5N1    

   DQ320920  A/migratory duck/Jiangxi/2295/2005       2005  H5N1    

   DQ320921  A/migratory duck/Jiangxi/2300/2005       2005  H5N1    

   DQ453141  A/mute swan/Croatia/1/2005               2005  H5N1    

   DQ320137  A/swan/Astrakhan/1/2005                  2005  H5N1    

   DQ231240  A/turkey/Suzdalka/Nov-01/05              2005  H5N1    

   DQ407519  A/turkey/Turkey/1/2005                   2005  H5N1    

   AB233320  A/whooper swan/Mongolia/3/05             2005  H5N1    

   AB233321  A/whooper swan/Mongolia/4/05             2005  H5N1    

   AB233322  A/whooper swan/Mongolia/6/05             2005  H5N1    

   ISDN48972 A/Chicken/Hu bei/14/2004                 2004  H5N1    

   AY830774  A/chicken/Macheng/2004                   2004  H5N1   
wetDirt – at 18:37

Congratualations on successfully predicting its presence from the dropped hints over the past weeks. Good job.

pogge – at 18:42

You may have noticed that we’re actively managing threads both for number and length in an effort to keep the site running well. The thread I moved your previous posts too was in fact the latest of a long line on the Indonesian clusters though it was renamed for that particular iteration. It seems to me that since this is another post on the same general subject, it can be moved there where the discussion can continue.

Closing this.

Edited to add:

I changed my mind for the moment. If you can think of a way to frame your opening post that both makes it general enough to serve for more than half a dozen posts and explains what you’re up to so we’ll know, I’d appreciate it.

DemFromCTat 18:46

What is the significance, please, of one having GERRRKKR and the rest RERRRKKR?

(And would you prefer this be the thread for discussion? I’m seeing the same post multiple places.)

Thanks.

(The PB2 E627K seems important re its temperate compatability in the human nose. HA sequences are important for their receptor activity. Please correct the simplifications.)

wetDirt – at 18:52

And thanks, to G.N.Mahardika of Indonesia, for posting the sequences.

niman – at 19:00

pogge,

These really are two very different issues. The RESRRKKR thread is really on the cleavage site indicating the human H5N1 in Indonesia is from a source other than birds. That source remains unknown. The sequence for this thread was released today. It is the first sequence (human or bird) that has the Qinghai cleavage site, GERRRKKR.

There has been speculation that PB2 E627K is circulating in Indonesia. Declan Butler from Nature has indocated that PB2 E627K has been in Indonesia since the second case was reported in August 2005. Prior to his piece, I too had independently confirmed from an impeccable source that indeed E627K was in that isolate. Recently, Declan suggested that E627K was also in the Sumatra cluster, which would explain the lethality, as well as the neurological complications that were reported today in the sole surviving member of that Karo, Sumatra cluster.

The presence of the Qinghai cleavge site, as well as a polymorphism shared by another Qinghai sequence (from Niger) that was also just released, supports recombination between Qinghai and Indonesian H5.

The recombination requires a dual infection, so E627K could have been acquired by recombination or reassortment. However, no PB2 human sequences have been officially released, although sources indocate that the index case for the country, A/Indonesia/5/2005 has the bird version, while A/Indonesia/6/2005 has the human version.

The human version can increase the lethality and transmissibility of H5N1, so the presence of GERRRKKR in a bird is of interest, especially since the PB2 sequences are locked up in the WHO private data base.

niman – at 19:08

wetDirt, I suspect that posting Indonesian sequences prior to publication or “release” by whomever the buck is passed to next is NOT what WHO had in mind.

The publication of Indonesian sequence by a non-WHO affiliated lab is a welcome change.

PS, As a curious aside, rumor has it that there will soon be a paper published on H2H in Indonesia by the same people who have been denying H2H since August 2005.

DemFromCTat 19:15

niman – at 19:00

Thank you.

pogge – at 19:42

Yes, thanks for the explanation. If I know from the opening post that there’s something to set a given thread apart from others, I’m a lot less likely to sweep it up in a house-cleaning.

BroncoBillat 20:00

Dr. Niman---I have a question strictly from a layman’s point. What do the letters (such as GERRRKKR, etc.) mean? Are those the sequences you all are talking about? I promise I’ll only ask once :-)

niman – at 21:25

The letters for DNA is ATG&C. The aminio acids have three and one letter codes. For teh cleavges site the letters are

G=Glycine E=Glutamine R=Arginine K=Lysine S=Serine

There is free software to link up sequences or translate sequences using the toolbox here

http://www.ebi.ac.uk/Tools/sequence.html

All 64 codons for the 20 amnio acids are here

http://www.ebi.ac.uk/cgi-bin/mutations/trtables.cgi

I’ll paste it below, but it pribably won’t format. However, if you use the link abobe to see the “standard” table, you will see that C&T or A&G are redundant at the third position (same amino acid no matter if C/T is used or A/G is used.

H5N1 takes full advantage of thios redundancy. Almost all polymorphisms that are acquired from closely related sequences will be transitions (when flu recombines, it makes both versions - its a lot smarter than many trying to read the data).

VIEWER RESULTS

  2nd   
      1st             T             C             A             G             3rd
T F Phe S Ser Y Tyr C Cys T
F Phe S Ser Y Tyr C Cys C
L Leu S Ser Ter Ter A
L Leu S Ser Ter W Trp G
C L Leu P Pro H His R Arg T
L Leu P Pro H His R Arg C
L Leu P Pro Q Gln R Arg A
L Leu P Pro Q Gln R Arg G
A I Ile T Thr N Asn S Ser T
I Ile T Thr N Asn S Ser C
I Ile T Thr K Lys R Arg A
M Met T Thr K Lys R Arg G
G V Val A Ala D Asp G Gly T
V Val A Ala D Asp G Gly C
V Val A Ala E Glu G Gly A
V Val A Ala E Glu G Gly G
niman – at 21:27

As expected, the formatting didn’t work, but the capital letter preceding the three letters is its abbreviation (F=Phe, S=Ser, Y-Tyr, etc).

BroncoBillat 21:54

I think I got it. Thank you…

DemFromCTat 22:04
BroncoBillat 22:11

Thanks Dem…much appreciated. :-)

NS1 – at 23:14

Bill,

Sorry for the delay . . . pop this note with the others and it should start to make sense.

High Pathogenicity is generally found or correlated with a poly-basic cleavage site in H5N1.

Three aminos are considered basic.

When a string of these appears in the cleavage area (typically 5 to 6 of 8 aminos), a wider variety of protease products can cleave the gene segment.

Typically this allows for higher virulence and a wider number of organs that can be infected (multi-tropism).

16 June 2006

niman – at 02:50

I believe the proteases are specific for R and K (not H).

anonymous – at 04:17

I found no human H5N1-HA-sequences from Indonesia at:
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/genomes/FLU/Database/select.cgi
But 30 different avian sequences. The “Grandmother” (center,min.total differences) of all Indonesian sequences being A/Ck/Indonesia/BL/2003(H5N1). Qinghai-strain Grandmother is A/Bar-headed Goose/Qinghai/59/05(H5N1). differences to grandmother:
Qinghai:1–14, average 6.94 (32 sequences)
Indonesia:2–24, average 12.41 (30 sequences)
distance GMQinghai-GMIndonesia=34
{difference=distance=number of mutations}


Nigeria was surprisingly close to Kurgan/3 (d=4) , d(GM)=5
d(Niger,Niogeria)=11,d(Niger,Kugan_duck)=8,d(Niger,Kurgan/3=11),d(Niger,GM)=6
you could speculate Niger was introduced by smuggling a Kurgan-like chicken, but Niger is not so different, i.e. when you take into account that it was a duck. Egypt however is pretty distant from both and from GM. That speaks against the migratory route Kurgan-Turkey-Egypt-Nigeria

anonymous – at 04:20

typo correction: d(Nigeria,GMQinghai)=7

NS1 – at 05:35

Niman,

I believe the proteases are specific for R and K (not H).

No question about that in this virus. Just mentioned the Histidine because it is considered basic. We both see that its not really featured in these matters.

NS1 – at 05:37

gs-

That speaks against the migratory route Kurgan-Turkey-Egypt-Nigeria

Good work on the study.

Remember that we are woefully short of sequences and specimens, so your analysis may not allow conclusions.

anonymous – at 05:57

don’t call me gs.

niman – at 08:17

gsgs, The similarity between Nigeria and Kurgan HA sequences was described in March when the sequence came out. The Indonesian human HA sequence is at Los Alamos. Sequences with ISDN numbers are from the WHO private repository that have been released to the public side.

17 June 2006

niman – at 04:55

Here is the updated version of Los Alamos sequences coding for GERRRKKR:

DQ661910 A/chicken/Afghanistan/1207/2006 2006 H5N1

   DQ447199    A/chicken/Egypt/960N3–004/2006            2006  H5N1    

   DQ676834    A/chicken/Krasnodar/01/2006               2006  H5N1    

   DQ676830    A/chicken/Mahachkala/05/2006              2006  H5N1    

   DQ406728    A/chicken/Nigeria/641/2006                2006  H5N1    

   AM231714    A/common pochard/France/06167/2006        2006  H5N1    

   DQ515984    A/Cygnus olor/Czech Republic/5170/2006    2006  H5N1    

   DQ435200    A/domestic cat/Iraq/820/2006              2006  H5N1    

   DQ435201    A/domestic goose/Iraq/812/2006            2006  H5N1    

   DQ659113    A/duck/Niger/914/2006                     2006  H5N1    

   DQ464377    A/Egypt/2782-NAMRU3/2006                  2006  H5N1    

   DQ435202    A/Iraq/207-NAMRU3/2006                    2006  H5N1    

   DQ458992    A/mallard/Bavaria/1/2006                  2006  H5N1    

   DQ449031    A/mallard/Italy/332/2006                  2006  H5N1    

   DQ440535    A/swan/Iran/754/2006                      2006  H5N1    

   DQ412997    A/swan/Italy/179/06                       2006  H5N1    

   ISDN136919  A/swan/Italy/179/2006                     2006  H5N1    

   AM236074    A/turkey/France/06222/2006                2006  H5N1    

   AB233319    A/bar-headed goose/Mongolia/1/05          2005  H5N1    

   DQ137873    A/bar-headed goose/Qinghai/0510/05        2005  H5N1    

   DQ095621    A/Bar-headed Goose/Qinghai/12/05          2005  H5N1    

   DQ095617    A/Bar-headed Goose/Qinghai/5/05           2005  H5N1    

   DQ095612    A/Bar-headed Goose/Qinghai/59/05          2005  H5N1    

   DQ095615    A/Bar-headed Goose/Qinghai/60/05          2005  H5N1    

   DQ095618    A/Bar-headed Goose/Qinghai/61/05          2005  H5N1    

   DQ095620    A/Bar-headed Goose/Qinghai/62/05          2005  H5N1    

   DQ095622    A/Bar-headed Goose/Qinghai/65/05          2005  H5N1    

   DQ095623    A/Bar-headed Goose/Qinghai/67/05          2005  H5N1    

   DQ095613    A/Bar-headed Goose/Qinghai/68/05          2005  H5N1    

   DQ095619    A/Bar-headed Goose/Qinghai/75/05          2005  H5N1    

   DQ100554    A/black-headed goose/Qinghai/1/2005       2005  H5N1    

   DQ100555    A/black-headed goose/Qinghai/2/2005       2005  H5N1    

   DQ100556    A/black-headed gull/Qinghai/1/2005        2005  H5N1    

   DQ095616    A/Brown-headed Gull/Qinghai/3/05          2005  H5N1    

   DQ340848    A/chicken/Crimea/1/2005                   2005  H5N1    

   DQ676838    A/chicken/Dovolnoe/03/2005                2005  H5N1    

   DQ449632    A/chicken/Kurgan/05/2005                  2005  H5N1    

   DQ323672    A/chicken/Kurgan/3/2005                   2005  H5N1    

   DQ190859    A/chicken/Novosibirsk/64/05               2005  H5N1    

   DQ190860    A/chicken/Novosibirsk/65/05               2005  H5N1    

   DQ190861    A/chicken/Novosibirsk/66/05               2005  H5N1    

   DQ231242    A/chicken/Suzdalka/Nov-11/05              2005  H5N1    

   DQ231241    A/chicken/Suzdalka/Nov-12/05              2005  H5N1    

   DQ279301    A/chicken/Tula/10/2005                    2005  H5N1    

   DQ389158    A/Cygnus olor/Astrakhan/Ast05–2−1/2005    2005  H5N1    

   DQ434889    A/Cygnus olor/Astrakhan/Ast05–2−10/2005   2005  H5N1    

   DQ343502    A/Cygnus olor/Astrakhan/Ast05–2−2/2005    2005  H5N1    

   DQ358746    A/Cygnus olor/Astrakhan/Ast05–2−3/2005    2005  H5N1    

   DQ363918    A/Cygnus olor/Astrakhan/Ast05–2−4/2005    2005  H5N1    

   DQ365004    A/Cygnus olor/Astrakhan/Ast05–2−5/2005    2005  H5N1    

   DQ364996    A/Cygnus olor/Astrakhan/Ast05–2−6/2005    2005  H5N1    

   DQ363923    A/Cygnus olor/Astrakhan/Ast05–2−7/2005    2005  H5N1    

   DQ399540    A/Cygnus olor/Astrakhan/Ast05–2−8/2005    2005  H5N1    

   DQ399547    A/Cygnus olor/Astrakhan/Ast05–2−9/2005    2005  H5N1    

   DQ644959    A/duck/Badung-Bali/05/2005                2005  H5N1    

   DQ449640    A/duck/Kurgan/08/2005                     2005  H5N1    

   DQ190858    A/duck/Novosibirsk/56/2005                2005  H5N1    

   DQ230522    A/duck/Novosibirsk/56/2005                2005  H5N1    

   DQ320922    A/Environment/Qinghai/31/2005             2005  H5N1    

   DQ676840    A/goose/Krasnoozerka/627/2005             2005  H5N1    

   DQ212792    A/goose/Novosibirsk/4/2005                2005  H5N1    

   DQ100557    A/great black-headed gull/Qinghai/1/2005  2005  H5N1    

   DQ095614    A/Great Black-headed Gull/Qinghai/2/05    2005  H5N1    

   DQ230521    A/grebe/Novosibirsk/29/2005               2005  H5N1    

   DQ190857    A/grebe/Novosibirsk/29/2005               2005  H5N1    

   DQ320919    A/migratory duck/Jiangxi/2136/2005        2005  H5N1    

   DQ320920    A/migratory duck/Jiangxi/2295/2005        2005  H5N1    

   DQ320921    A/migratory duck/Jiangxi/2300/2005        2005  H5N1    

   DQ453141    A/mute swan/Croatia/1/2005                2005  H5N1    

   DQ320137    A/swan/Astrakhan/1/2005                   2005  H5N1    

   DQ231240    A/turkey/Suzdalka/Nov-01/05               2005  H5N1    

   DQ407519    A/turkey/Turkey/1/2005                    2005  H5N1    

   AB233320    A/whooper swan/Mongolia/3/05              2005  H5N1    

   AB233321    A/whooper swan/Mongolia/4/05              2005  H5N1    

   AB233322    A/whooper swan/Mongolia/6/05              2005  H5N1    

   ISDN48972   A/Chicken/Hu bei/14/2004                  2004  H5N1    

   AY830774    A/chicken/Macheng/2004                    2004  H5N1   
anonymous – at 05:55

GERRRKKR is just characteristic for the Qinghai strain. Can you list the sequences with GERRRKKR but not from the Qinghai strain ? And the sequences from the Qinghai strain which have not GERRRKKR. That should be much smaller lists and easier to comprehend. Thanks.

niman – at 06:40

The isoaltes that are not Qinghai are at the bottom of the list (migratory birds from Jiangxi and chickens from Hubei and Macheng).

There is one Mongolian isolate with GERRRRKR and the Ian Brown presentation has some additional novel cleavage sites, but he has only released one sequence (turkey/Turkey/1/2005) and did not specific which isoaltes in Europe had the novel sites).

niman – at 06:41

Comments on Qinghai in Bali.

20 June 2006

MaMa- Still open – at 01:06
Mr White42 – at 10:16

bump

niman – at 10:39

The above commentray has three long lists of isolates with Qinghai polymorphisms with Indonesian sequences bolded for easy analysis.

20 July 2006

NgurahfromBaliat 19:57

Hi All, The author of the GeneBank data of Indonesian isolates was me. I do not think that the present of Qinghai cleavage site from Bali is an indicator of a recombination. As the virus A/duck/Badung-Bali/05/2005(H5N1)shows its nature as ‘an Indonesian virus’, the cleavage site of Qinghai seems a reflection of mutagenicity of influenza virus.

niman – at 20:14

NgurahfromBali,

Welcome to FW!

All piblished isolates from Indonesia, including A/duck/Badung-Bali/05/2005 have an Indonesian genetic background (as seen in this phylogentic tree. However, they have some polymoprhisms that match Qingai, including the above isolate. These look like point mutations, but the pattern of these aquisitions point toward recombination resulting in the acquistion of a very small region, that frequently only has one nucleotidde change, so it looks like a point mutation.

As you know, the cleavage site in most human isolates from Indonesia have the RESRRKKR sequence. Have you found this in any of the avian isolates in Bali (or anywhere in Indonesia)? As you know, all of the human cases in Indonesia have been identified in the past 12 months, but most of the published sequences from birds are from 2005 or earlier.

TreasureIslandGalat 20:22

Welcome to the fluwikie NgurahfromBali.

We would love to have you visit us often to shed some light on what is happening with the virus as far as mutations go. Although we all understand that you are not permitted to actually list sequence data, you may be abel to at least comment on overall indications of changes and mutations that you may be seeing as this thing ravages Indonesia.

Speaking for everyone on this board, we all sympathize with the Indonesian people through this difficult time of natural disasters that they seem to be afflicted by. We wish everyone could be safe and send our condolences to all families who have lost loved ones between the volcano, earthquakes, tsunamis and BF instances. -as well as the many other problems suffered there like Dengue, Malaria, etc etc etc

Tom DVM – at 20:27

NgurahfromBali. Welcome.

TreasureIslandGal. That was a beautiful piece of writing. Thanks.

Thinlina – at 21:35

About the feline (cat) sequences: isn’t it quite usual to eat cats and dogs in East Asia?

Tom DVM – at 21:41

Thinlina. I’m pretty sure you are right about the dogs…but I have not heard of eating cats.

Thinlina – at 21:46

A few years ago there was a TV document about the Far Eastern gastronomique… They showed how dogs and cats were sold for cuisine meat on the market places.

Tom DVM – at 21:48

Thinlina. Then I stand corrected. It is a very important issue that you raise…another possible mode of infection and as well many other mammals eat dogs and cats as well…that may be part of the problem with our friendly and highly intelligent ominivore and close relative…the pig.

21 July 2006

NgurahfromBaliat 09:10

Tom DVM Agree with you on the possible role of pig. One small step TO Man (via pig), one giant leap to mankind. I am working hard in detecting the H5N1-devil in pig as an EWS (early warning system) for potential “flu tsunami”.

niman – at 09:31

NgurahfromBali,

The pig or other mammal is a logocal choice, but I was actually asking about additional evidence in birds of an HA cleavage site, RESRRKKR, that matches the vast majority of human cases. I believe 100 bird samples were recently sent to Australia fr analysis and as of June of this year, there was no acknowledgement of RESRRKKR in birds. There was a rumor that one such bird isolate was found south of Jakarta, but I haven’t seen that result published anywhere, and was wondering if you had heard anything about anyone finding RESRRKKR in any source other than human and cat.

The Sarge – at 09:54

Dr. Niman (or anyone)

I understand that the multiple basic residues in the HA0 cleavage site opens it up for mutltiple and ubiquitous proteases. This in turn leads to wider tissue tropism, multi-organ involvement and more serious consequences.

What should I be looking for in the posts and news that would indicate a change in the HA binding domain - one that would show a change of ‘preference’ from the avian 2,3 sialic acid receptor to the human 2,6 receptor.

Or, has the importance of 2,3 vs. 2,6 become so muddy that we don’t consider it much? I rarely see it discussed anymore.

Thanks!

NgurahfromBaliat 10:04

Dr Niman, All my viruses show RERRRKKR motive. No news on ‘human motive’. I have a limitation to access sequence data. I will keep searching.

NgurahfromBaliat 10:17

The Sarge, I propose to this forum, 2,3 vs 2,6 is hypothetical. It is not a dogma. Leave the dogma in bible, qoran, veda.

Any comment?

Tom DVM – at 10:22

NgurahfromBali. I think as time goes on, we will find that there are more similarities between humans and birds then differences.

I’m not sure that H5N1 is as aware of its inability to infect humans as humans appear to be.

I think it is good to continue to explore these issues from every concievable angle but I am with Dr. Niman on the fact that researchers should at all times keep in the back of their minds,that the what is discovered in a lab (in vitro) often has little relation to what goes on in nature (in vivo).

By the way, your question hits on the crux of the matter.

Thinlina – at 11:11

Just wanted to share a few links with you..:

http://messybeast.com/eat-cats.htm http://www.capital.net/com/phuston/cateating.html http://www.saveacat.org/acr_articles/asiancats.htm http://asiarecipe.com/chidine.html

Thinlina – at 11:14

There is four different links. Dont know why thei look as if there was only two :/

Thinlina – at 11:26

“An estimate by the Yangcheng Evening News suggests that a cat stall in the game-meat market can easily sell 300–400 kilograms of cat meat daily in winter. There are about 80 stalls selling cats in the three [game meat] markets. This adds up to 10,000 cats a day.”

And yes, Niman, I understood you, but got interested to search a little this cat-eating idea.

niman – at 11:41

The Sarge, You should look for dead people.

niman – at 11:46

NgurahfromBali, Have you loked at any 2006 sequences? The first human sequence was about a year ago and most of the human H5N1 sequences listed are from late 2005 and 2006. Available bird sequences from Indonesia include 2005, but I have not seen any 2006 bird H5N1 sequences from Indonesia.

NgurahfromBaliat 12:23

Dr Niman, I have partial HA of 2006 sequence from animal. It still keep RERRRKKR motive.

Hillbilly Bill – at 12:30

niman – at 11:41

If that wasn’t so morbid, it would be hilarious! I didn’t know you had such a sense of humor Dr. Niman.

The Sarge – at 13:06

NgurahfromBali and Dr. Niman:

Thank you. I agree with Dr. Niman that the only measure that matters, unfortunately, is dead folks. My opinion is that there may soon be far too many of these, already so in Indonesia.

It is just that discussions of the HA binding domain seem to dominate so much of the literature over the past decade. However, there recently seems to have been a lot of doubt raised about the importance or even validity of the isomer ‘preference’ as an indicator/determinant of host range restriction and pathogenesis. I just wanted to see if that was your impression also.

The more we learn, it seems, the more we don’t know - or maybe more accurately, the more we find out that what we know just isn’t so.

Sort of props open the door for Henry, no?

niman – at 13:19

The Sarge, I believe that the only two changes that WHO woudl abnnounce would be reassortment involving a human or swine gene and a change in the receptor binding domain.

The Sarge – at 13:43

Since the binding domain is a 3-dimensional protein structure, and its affinity - as I am geiven to understand it - is a function of that physical structure (as opposed to a chemical interaction, as with proteases), we have to be concerned with the secondary and tertiary folding. What can the sequences for the HA gene tell us about structure of the proteins they are encoding, if anything. IOW - can the sequences inform us as to course of development of the HA binding domain, or must this be observed after the fact via x-ray crystallography or similar methods?

Thanks!

The Sarge – at 18:44

Bump, cause I’d really like to know.

Jefiner – at 20:11

bump

niman – at 20:16

Then two key positions are 226 and 228. The story is in the sequence.

22 July 2006

a’Akova – at 01:58

NgurahfromBali – at 09:10 on 21 July:

“One small step TO Man (via pig), one giant leap to mankind.”

Clever, especially since 21 July is the anniversary of mankind’s first step on the moon!

a’Akova – at 02:17

“However, which mutations are likely to modulate receptor specificity in the H5 serotype is not so obvious.”

“Although a dramitic switch to a classic [alpha]2–6 human receptor binding was not observed(51), the double mutant (Q226L, G228S) showed sunstantially reduced affinity to [alpha]2–3 sialosides), as noted for the mutants of the H3 A/Hong Kong/156/1997 virus(52). But it was notable that significant binding to a natural, branched [alpha]2–6 biantennary glycan (nos. 56 and 57) was observed for both the double mutant and the single G228S mutant (Fig 5H).”

J. Stevens, et al., Science 312, 404 (2006).

Dr. Nimian states 226 and 228 with certainty, a cite with more information would be appreciated.

The Sarge – at 13:07

Thanks a’Akova and Dr. Niman!

anonymous – at 14:00

see also this picture posted by Alaska Denise:
http://www-ermm.cbcu.cam.ac.uk/01003489h.htm

28 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:15

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Dehydrator or Canners

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Dehydrator or Canners

28 August 2006

seacoast – at 19:56

I have decided to buy just one but I don’t know which way to go, a dehydrator or a canner. I am so busy that I only have the time for one or the other. I am thinking that I will get the longest storage life out of the dehydrator, am I correct?

seacoast – at 19:58
I’m-workin’-on-it – at 20:04

I’d get the canner since it can PROBABLY also be used as a pressure cooker (some can, check to see if the one you want can), which means you can get that slow cooker type meal, in 20 minutes rather than 8 hours + the canning so it would be a good deal, AND if you have an oven already, you can use it to dry some foods while you’re caning with your new canner. Unless you’re really hurting for space & can’t store a lot of jars then the dehydrator would do!!

seacoast – at 20:09

I have decided to buy just one but I don’t know which way to go, a dehydrator or a canner. I am so busy that I only have the time for one or the other. I am thinking that I will get the longest storage life out of the dehydrator, am I correct?

Northstar – at 20:25

I’d vote on the canner, too. I got a dehydrator; then, thinking hard, I figured out I could just put things in a slow oven overnight and get the same result. D’oh! So I took the dehydrator back. (s)

seacoast – at 21:06

Can I actually dehydrate hamburger in a regular oven?

jane – at 21:28

I think I’m going to get a dehydrator, because, as I understand it, it isn’t as tricky to dry foods as to manage the timing and pressure canner itself. Also, the portions of dehydrated foods are easier to use; just put the jar lid back on, no refrigeration needed for leftovers. (I wonder if spoilage happens with dried foods, especially with a dehydrator that has a thermostat. I’m afraid I’d be wondering if my canned food would make us sick. Precision doesn’t seem as necessary with drying foods, from what I’ve read so far.)

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 23:12

seacoast – at 21:06 Can I actually dehydrate hamburger in a regular oven?

Yep!!

seacoast – at 23:31

I’m-workin’-on-it

Thank you very much, you always give good, informative information and I can’t wait to try it.

29 August 2006

EnoughAlreadyat 00:26

You don’t have to sit with a dehydrater. If busy is the issue, then you can put the stuff in, turn it on and go.

Malachi – at 00:31

You can use a canner when there is no electric, on your campstove.

Carrey in VA – at 07:55

Personally I have both and wouldn’t give either of them up. You can get a dehydrator pretty regularly in thrift stores, and maybe even canners too.

I love my dehydrated burger, but ya can’t beat the canned chicken in broth either.

And if the power fails you can save whats in the freezer with a canner over fire.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 08:31

shucks, thanks seacoast….I was blazing out of the room when I answered you yesterday, so it was short & sweet, not my usually diatribe! Wanted to add this AM that I bought my dehydrator for $30 at Big Lots (they still have some at 2 of the 3 stores I know of around here and it’s working just fine. I went to the Ronco website (the manufacturer) & ordered more trays & liners so I actually spent more, but all in all, it’s doing what the big expensive ones do & that’s all I need, so maybe you can find one at a thrift store, yard sale for just a few dollars or Big Lots for $30 & be able to swing having both that a a canner! I also bought a book from Amazon called “Soups and Stews for Slow Cooker, Stovetop, Oven and Pressure Cooker from Nitty Gritty books — less than $4 — to help me make my canner ‘work’ for me harder by using it as a pressure cooker too!

Kathy in FL – at 08:31

I was at Wallyworld last week and they had a small pressure canner for sale … I think $40? It was a name brand, but I can’t remember which. And you can find dehydrators on sale in a bunch of different places.

I have both and both serve a different purpose.

I pressure can meats and stews/soups. You can pressure can veggies, but I don’t because it is cheaper for me to buy commercially canned products. If I had a garden of my own I would pressure can … but even buying stuff at the local farmer’s market makes it more expensive to home-can than to buy commerically canned veggies.

I hot-water-bath can jams, jellies, and fruits … and that IS cheaper than commercially canned items.

I dehydrate veggies, jerky, etc. Its cheaper for me to dehydrate veggies than home-can them. Its about the same cost for buying commercially canned veggies and home dehydrated veggies.

Its a different tool for different results. Dehydrated saves weight and space and has a fairly long shelf-life if stored properly. Canned saves water/fluid and is more convenient. Pressure canned allows you to have a lot of fully-cooked convenience items that just need reheating. Using a dehydrator though I can make a lot of “just add water” type soups which are convenient as well.

There are some overlap in usage between the tools. You just need to determine which is going to be the most convenient for you in the long run.

amak – at 10:26

I know this has been mentioned in other threads, but I can;t find the exact location - wondering for anyone reading this thread - can you really get botulism from canned butter - especially if you didn’t do it right? Been trying to search outside the wikie too, but it doesn’t specifically mention butter - just low acid veggies, meat and fish products. Any links appreciated.

Malachi – at 10:37

Kathy or anyone…Would there be any reason why one couldnt pressure can butter?I think I read on an lds site once about a woman doing that with cheese..sorry this may not be the thread to discuss this.I did can 10 lbs of butter when the info was first put on the wiki,Left it out for a few days until I read the botulism worries,Then I put it back into the fridge.

Seacoast….If it were a choice between a canner or a dehydrator,I would choose the canner.The foods are much better imho.Luckily I have both and glad I do.

Kathy in FL – at 10:52

You can get something from “canned” butter. I have some friends that have done it for years with nary a problem. I’ve eaten “canned” butter with no problems.

The problem is that “canned” butter isn’t really canned. The jars aren’t being brought up to a certain temperature/pressure and sealed.

Its kind of like for years many people use to “can” by sealing their jars with paraffin and/or sealing their meats in grease. Never had a problem … but suddenly it isn’t a recommended procedure anymore because something could happen.

I can’t recommend “canning” butter from a personal standpoint just because of the risks involved, especially if someone inexperienced might try it without making sure of 100% sterilization. And “experienced” canners might take risks with short cuts.

I’m sticking with “alternatives” or “substitutes” for my butter. Right now I only have so much time to experiment … I’m saving my time for things I don’t have alternatives for. I’ve found ways to get around the butter problem that don’t involve “canning” it.

I have the same problem with eggs. I just don’t have the experience or the time to learn how to “preserve” eggs … so I’m going with alternatives and substitutes.

If I discover that I have more time for this in the future then I’ll be willing to experiment … but not at the moment.

Bronco Bill – at 12:14

amak – at 10:26 --- Canned Butter

Posie – at 13:50

i scored an electric dehydrator off ebay for $15. (+S&H) and i love it (tho solar would of course be better).

Northstar – at 19:30

Malachi: I tried to pressure can butter and it developed the most horrible taste. I can’t describe it, but it was NAST-EE. We threw it all out after one taste.

However, my Meijers in MI carries Ghee (clarified butter) in a big 16oz jar for under $7. It’s in the international foods with the Arabic stuff. It is a sunny yellow, and only a tiny bit different in flavor and texture — just a wee bit oiler on both counts.

If you have to have butter, it’s a great way to go. And apparently it doesn’t need to be refrigerated.

Now for my question, anybody… Is Velveeta shelf-stable?

Edna Mode – at 20:14

Hi, Northstar,

If Velveeta has not been refrigerated, it is supposedly shelf stable. However, once refrigerated, it must remain refrigerated. I can’t remember where I found this info, but I think it was from the Kraft site.

In any event, our local Shaw’s has Velveeta in the refrig section, so a no go there. But our local Market Basket stores do not refrigerate. I have bought multiple blocks, stored it for months, and have had no problems cooking with it.

Another type of cheese I’ve stockpiled is Laughing Cow soft cheeses. They do not need refrigeration, and they aren’t half bad on crackers and in recipes.

What I’d like to know is, supposedly Velveeta is good long beyond it’s expiry date. Anyone have any info on that?

Edna Mode – at 20:20

As far as canner over dehydrated, I am lucky enough to have a convection wall oven that was here when we bought the house. It can be used as a dehydrator. I haven’t used it as such so far, mainly because our electric bill is so bloody expensive. I do plan to give it a whirl. I use dehydrated products in my cooking already, and they are very convenient.

I have done lots of canning of entrees in recent months. I want to try to have some source of normalcy during pandemic, and familiar foods will help with that. The bonus of canning is it has added a level of convenience to life that even freezing can’t offer. Sure it’s more work up front. But when you are running short on time and want a decent meal, you just pop the lid and voila! In fact, I just sent my step-daughter to school with a bunch of jars of my meat sauce, and you would have thought I’d sent her off with a wallet full of money!

31 August 2006

LMWatBullRunat 16:02

I’d do both. they each serve a different function.

28 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:15

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Is USA Going to Cull Its LPAI Bird Population

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Is USA Going to Cull Its LPAI Bird Population

30 August 2006

Thinlina – at 14:03

Haven’t found an answer to this question.

Bronco Bill – at 15:13

LPAI? Unlikely. HPAI? Possibly.

Retired ParamedicMIat 19:58

the reason they found the low path h5n1 was because they were culling the swans.

Bronco Bill – at 20:25

But they were only doing the culling of a few (hundred) to bring the over-population down, not due to any disease.

Bronco Bill – at 20:26

That should read: AND they were only….

LauraBat 20:34

How can they test either, unless birds start dropping out of the sky. Would they capture birds, hold them while they await rest results then release them if negative? Can they catch an entire flock? Unlikely. This would defeat the purpose - if a few birds have high path, then they’ve already exposed many others in the flock already. But if the gov’t can only catch a few in a flock, wait for results, etc. it’s too late - the rest have flown the coop (so to speak) and are busy infecting other birds. Domestic (chikcen farms, etc.) is easy. However, if birds start dropping out of the sky and/or the public really starts to panic (even if the threat is low) you’ll start to see some things happen.

enza – at 21:51

We had an over-population of swans??

Retired ParamedicMIat 22:16

the swans being culled were a type not from Michigan. They are mean and are overpopulating the area denying breeding grounds to the swans that live there. Think of it as the police kicking out a bunch of strangers having a party at your house. Kinda like, “We had to destroy the village to save it”. we have to kill them to save the others. Like killing all the fish in a small stretch of a river so you can count the dead ones to see how many live in the river. We do some strange shite in Mich.

enza – at 22:20

Got it. They are an ecologically alien species to Mich.

31 August 2006

Cygnet – at 00:50

Yes, the US does cull for LP AI in domestic poultry.

I doubt they would expend much effort on it in wild birds. Cost = benefit ratio would be too high.

heddiecalifornia – at 01:11

There is a bird sanctuary near here on the San Francisco Bay mud flats where they are testing for bird flu. They had a photo in our local paper, The Argus, of a fellow with a net that was ‘trapping’ small birds for testing kind of randomly out of the habitat.

   They were doing a harmless quick swab and then just releasing them. 
    They have about 100 types of birds, mostly shorebirds waders, ducks and some migrating birds. 
Commonground – at 13:33

Wednesday, August 30, 2006 8:17 AM CDT South Korea Bans U.S. Poultry

By Kim Souza

The Morning News • ksouza@nwaonline.net

Domestic poultry headed for South Korea was sidelined for the past two weeks while two migratory swans were tested for avian flu in Michigan.

All U.S. poultry headed for South Korea was halted as the federal government awaited final test results, Kristin Scuderi, a spokeswoman for the U.S. Department of Agriculture, confirmed to The Morning News.

The tests confirmed the H5N1 strain of avian flu found in the two wild swans is considered a low pathogenic form and poses no threat to human health, the USDA announced Monday.

The United States expected poultry shipments to South Korean to resume within the next few days, Scuderi said.

Representatives of the National Chicken Council said they hoped the latest findings released by the National Veterinary Service Laboratories would be enough to persuade the Republic of Korea to resume importing U.S. poultry.

“Korea received 38,382 metric tons of broiler parts from January through June of this year, which puts them in the top ten importing countries,” said Richard Lobb, National Chicken Council spokesman.

In addition to South Korea, Mexico also cut off poultry exported from the state of Michigan, according to the USDA. The National Chicken Council said there is no commercial broiler production in Michigan but there is some turkey production in the state.

Springdale-based Tyson Foods Inc. said the company does not own any poultry, beef or pork operations in Michigan.

Tyson Foods said the company had some chicken orders from South Korea that were sidelined because of the ban, but hoped to soon resume shipments.

“South Korea does not make up a large part of our international poultry sales but they are an important trade partner for Tyson. They buy hides and pork from Tyson,” said company spokesman Gary Mickelson.

South Korea was a large buyer of U.S. beef and an important export source for Tyson prior to the beef ban in place since the first domestic case of mad cow was found in December 2003.

In related news, Tyson confirmed two of their beef processing plants recently were visited by South Korean inspectors who are revisiting six American processing plants in an effort to reopen beef exports.

http://tinyurl.com/mf56r

Thinlina – at 14:11

“Agriculture Minister Alexei Gordeyev on customs tariff regulation of poultry imports to Russia: August 21, 2006 Bocharov Ruchei, Sochi at www.kremlin.ru As you know, the United States is the biggest supplier of poultry imports on the Russian market with an import quota of around 75–80 percent.

Rounding the figures off, they have a quota of around 800,000 tons. We have an import quota of 1.15 million tons of chicken in total, and 800,000 tons of this is the American quota. This is a considerable preference that has been accorded to our American colleagues, but this was tied to Russia’s becoming a member of the World Trade Organisation, so that we could act on an equal footing with our partners, including the European Union countries, where there are sizeable subsidies both for production and exports. Now, though, we are in a situation where the accession negotiations are dragging on and it is not expedient to continue maintaining such a high quota for American producers. They are earning around $1 billion on the Russian market. Given that the negotiations are dragging on, it would make sense to revise this quota. Clearly, we will raise this question with our American colleagues now.

PRESIDENT VLADIMIR PUTIN: So, you propose redistributing the quota among other exporters?

ALEXEI GORDEYEV: Yes, among other countries. Brazil, in particular, has been actively bringing up this issue. They say that they have genuine potential that they are currently developing, but that they cannot enter the Russian market on competitive conditions because of our country-based quotas.”

One could think of many reasons why the USA might want to belittle the threat of the Michigan H5N1. One being the exports of poultry.

http://tinyurl.com/l28pj

28 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:14

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Thailand Surveillance

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Thailand Surveillance

30 August 2006

FrenchieGirlat 13:14

One of the posters was looking at the Thai figures and may have been spooked by them. In the steps of the wonderful FluWikians on the Indonesian thread, I thought may be we could have a go sorting out Thailand. I looked at the source again Thai figures, and could not make much sense. So I organized some of the data in table form. The thing is, I’m just not terribly good at maths. So I reproduce the figures here, and hopefully one of you can make more sense than I was able to, save that I think the table shows that as time passes, the Thais are more organised; see towards end August, they look like they are now testing in batches. I’m willing to compile the figures daily or every other day. We might need to get more info to do something as good as the Indonesian guys and gals! But I don’t know where/how to fish out more info. What I’d like to find out are the percentages of the people tested vs. the suspect numbers, the numbers cleared (negative) of BF, etc. (any other ideas?) Any maths wizard among us that wants to take up the challenge?

First column = date
Second column = Cumulative numbers of people under surveillance
Third column = Today’s reports (in other words, the number added to the cumulative numbers of the previous day)
Fourth column = Suspects awaiting lab results
Fifth column = Day of the week, remarks

 August, 1   2154            0            0          Tuesday
2 2318 164 279 Wednesday
3 2411 93 259 Thursday
4 2551 140 311 Friday
5 2681 130 337 Saturday
6 2778 97 394 Sunday
7 2931 153 378 Monday
8 3051 120 2643 Tuesday, typo ?
9 3191 140 423 Wednesday
10 3353 162 481 Thursday
11 3501 148 527 Friday
12 3549 48 311 Saturday
13 3631 82 191 Sunday
14 3671 40 178 Monday
15 3769 98 210 Tuesday
16 3856 87 182 Wednesday
17 3922 66 182 Thursday
18 4023 101 182 Friday
19 4061 38 182 Saturday
20 4077 16 89 Sunday
21 4156 79 100 Monday
22 4231 75 115 Tuesday
23 4276 45 74 Wednesday
24 4354 78 74 Thursday
25 4401 47 74 Friday
26 4434 33 74 Saturday
27 4447 13 74 sunday
28 4479 32 67 Monday
29 4506 27 67 Tuesday


(Oh boy, I hope it shows OK…)

FrenchieGirlat 13:15

It looked better in the sandbox :-(. Another try…

 August, 1   2154            0            0          Tuesday
  2          2318          164          279          Wednesday
  3          2411           93          259          Thursday
  4          2551          140          311          Friday
  5          2681          130          337          Saturday
  6          2778           97          394          Sunday
  7          2931          153          378          Monday
  8          3051          120          2643         Tuesday, typo ?
  9          3191          140          423          Wednesday
 10          3353          162          481          Thursday
 11          3501          148          527          Friday
 12          3549           48          311          Saturday
 13          3631           82          191          Sunday
 14          3671           40          178          Monday
 15          3769           98          210          Tuesday
 16          3856           87          182          Wednesday
 17          3922           66          182          Thursday
 18          4023          101          182          Friday
 19          4061           38          182          Saturday
 20          4077           16           89          Sunday
 21          4156           79          100          Monday
 22          4231           75          115          Tuesday
 23          4276           45           74          Wednesday
 24          4354           78           74          Thursday
 25          4401           47           74          Friday
 26          4434           33           74          Saturday
 27          4447           13           74          sunday
 28          4479           32           67          Monday
 29          4506           27           67          Tuesday
FrenchieGirlat 13:16

Horrible…

FrenchieGirlat 13:21
August,1215400Tuesday
22318164279Wednesday
3241193259Thursday
42551140311Friday
52681130337Saturday
6277897394Sunday
72931153378Monday
830511202643Tuesday, typo?
93191140423Wednesday
103353162481Thursday
113501148527Friday
12354948311Saturday
13363182191Sunday
14367140178Monday
15376998210Tuesday
16385687182Wednesday
17392266182Thursday
184023101182Friday
19406138182Saturday
2040771689Sunday
21415679100Monday
22423175115Tuesday
2342764574Wednesday
2443547874Thursday
2544014774Friday
2644343374Saturday
2744471374sunday
2844793267Monday
2945062767Tuesday
Watching in Texas – at 13:38

FrenchieGirl - thanks for the great job (and the perseverance;-)

WIT

Bluebonnet – at 15:35

Frenchiegirl - that was me that was spooked! Thank you so very much for doing this for us. Thailand scares me to death due to the high rates of AIDS in that country as well. Immunosupressed folks won’t have a chance with this killer.

It is interesting that we have not heard a peep (sorry for the inappropriate word) from Laos.

Thanks again!

LauraBat 15:46

The good news (such as it is) is that the number of new observed/potential cases has dropped way off recently. The other good news is that the Tahi gov’t seems to be much more forthcoming with information than Indonesia has been. Doesn’t mean they can stop it, but I think they’ll be much more likely to cry out for international help than the Indo. gov’t will.

FrenchieGirlat 15:51

Bluebonnet – at 15:35 - I tried, but now we need a maths (and excel) wizard. I’m spooked enough about Indonesia, so I flatly refuse to let myself be panicked by Thailand until we can get meaningful figures. Trouble will come soon enough, I’m not going to scare myself s***less on foggy data. As for Laos, I don’t know if there’s anything much we can get at for the moment. Will think about it.

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 19:13

FrenchieGirl - this looks like a lot of time and work! Thank you. I’m leery of Thailand for the same reasons as Bluebonnet, population density, sky-high rates of immunosuppresive diseases like aids/hepatitis…spooky in potential.

Ruth – at 19:30

FrenchieGirl- Third times a charm. Nice work. Are we to assume that all these people tested negative? Or would they keep the + to themselves?

LauraBat 20:13

Based purely on what you’ve provided Frenchie, we can’t say with any certainty how many cases have been dismissed or are positive. It simply shows how many suspect cases and how many are awaiting testing. We can only make supositions that the missing figures are due to two possibilities - 1) many suspect cases have been dismissed, or 2)they are hiding positive cases. However, my HO is that if this much info was made public, the gov’t would have a hard time hiding so many positive cases - too much scrutiny by local media, etc. My guess is that the # of cases waiting results does not correspond with new daily cases because test results take a few days. The others are dismissed, possibly without any testing at all. I’ll take a look at your link later (after the kids are in bed) to see if there is anything else that can be gleaned from the data. Pre-mom stage I was a stats jock so I love this stuff.

As I said before, the lack of data from Indonesia (other than what has been culled by fluwikians, etc.)is more frightening to me. They won’t admit TS has HitTheFan until TS has become too hard and encrusted for removal.

LauraBat 20:20

Okay - the kids are still happily watching a movie.

Frenchie - where did you find those numbers? Since I don’t read Tahi fluently (lol!) I was not able to find them.

It is also important to note that in the main page (in English) it states that the cummlative #of cases is for the entire year, not just this month. if they had 4000+ cases in August alone I’d definitely be more worried. Currently they only have 67 suspect cases and two deaths so far this year, both recently.

31 August 2006

FrenchieGirlat 05:13

LauraB — at 10:20. I found the figures here Thai figures, it’s not written in Thai though. In the http address you just change the last numbers to correspond to whatever date you wish. I extracted them from the text. For example, on 30 August 2006, this is what I read: (I’ve bolded the figures that I have used in the table)

I. Avian Influenza in human situation 2006

Since January 1, 2006 to August 29, 2006, the Bureau of Epidemiology has received reports of influenza or pneumonia cases in Avian Influenza Surveillance Network from the Provincial Health Offices and Disease Prevention and Control Regional Offices. The investigation and analysis were summarized as follows:

1. Cumulative number of patients under surveillance are 4,506 cases 71 provinces. Today reports are 27 cases; Seven cases from Sukho Thai, 4 from Chiangrai, 3 each from Nonthaburi, Pathumthani, Chainat and Amnatcharoen, and 1 each from Bangkok metrpolis, Suphanburi, Nakhonpathom, Chaingmai, Lamphun, Lampang, Phitsanulok and Nakhonsawan.

2. Confirmed human case of avian influenza 2006 = 2 cases, with 2 death cases.

· The first death case, reported from Phichit province, Tabklo district is 17 years old male. He had onset on July 15, 2006 and died on July 24, 2006.

· The second death case, reported from Uthai Thani province, Sawang Arom district is 27 years old male. He had onset on July 24, 2006 and died on August 3, 2006.

There are 67 cases under investigate reported, of which waiting for laboratory result.

Conclusion:

· In 2005, there are 5 confirmed human cases of avian influenza, with 2 death cases.

· In 2006, there are 2 confirmed human dead cases of avian influenza.

So the headers of my tables are

First column = date
Second column = Cumulative numbers of people under surveillance - that is the first number I fish out from the Thai report
Third column = Today’s reports (in other words, the number added to the cumulative numbers of the previous day) - that is the second number I fish out from the Thai report
Fourth column = Suspects awaiting lab results - That is the third number I fish out form the Thai report
Fifth column = Day of the week, remarks

28 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:13

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Could H 5 N 1 Be in Nepal

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Could H 5 N 1 Be in Nepal

20 August 2006

Grace RN – at 18:25

Thanks BB.

From promed

“Unidentified disease kills 14 in central Nepal

An unprecedented epidemic of an unidentified disease has killed at least 14 people, including 7 children, in central Nepal in the past 2 weeks, The Kathmandu Post reported on Saturday [19 Aug 2006].

According to the newspaper, the disease, which was 1st detected in dogs and chickens during the last week of June 2006, had started spreading to humans in Netini, a far eastern village of Nuwakot district, some 50 km northwest of Kathmandu.

Major symptoms of the disease are high fever with bleeding from the nose and mouth at the time of death.”

It’s the ‘unprecedented’ in the news release that concerns me-whoever submitted this is saying that these type of deaths have not occured there. The deaths of chickens and dogs first, and the symptoms the human cases have make it suspcious for H5N1.

link:http://tinyurl.com/hvlom

map of Nepal:http://ncthakur.itgo.com/map04.htm

giraffe – at 18:31

This was included in a Promed email update…thought it was interesting….

“Joe Dudley Chief Scientist, Biosecurity & Biosurveillance EAI Corporation SAIC <jdudley@eai.com>

[Given the paucity of symptoms provided in the 2 very similar newswires above, it would be very hazardous to venture a differential diagnosis at this time. That being said, it is important to mention that we were 1st alerted to this outbreak by a subscriber (who, though known to us, did not wish that identifying information be given), who mentioned that chat rooms/blogs were speculating that this might be due to H5N1, given the history of poultry and dogs (although dogs have not been routinely identified as being affected by H5N1). It seems that in today’s environment, any mention of an animal death preceding undiagnosed human deaths results in a “knee jerk” response on the part of bloggers to attribute deaths to H5N1 immediately, even if the symptoms are not clearly those associated with human H5N1 deaths as seen in the majority of cases confirmed and officially reported. Eliminating exposure to birds, the most likely infectious disease mentioned was leptospirosis, known to be endemic in Nepal. Another febrile hemorrhagic disease reported in the literature to occur in Nepal is old world hantavirus…

Bronco Bill – at 18:51

Copied from previous thread


‘Z – at 18:25

Asian Economic News, March 15, 1999 - Influenza claims 90 lives in Nepal

KATHMANDU, March 8 Kyodo. Influenza has claimed 90 lives in western Nepal within the past month, newspaper reports said Monday. The illness, with such symptoms as fever, coughing and cramps, has risen to epidemic proportions in the mountainous districts of Jumla, Dolpa and Gorkha where some 3,170 people have been affected. The majority of the deaths occurred in Jumla, where medicine to treat the sick is in short supply, the reports said. Most of the casualties were children under age 15 who died within two or three days of being infected, the Kathmandu Post quoted Nepalese government health officials as saying.

http://www.himalmag.com/2003/july/opinion.htm - OPINION, Mysterious afflictions - Why have some unidentified ailments begun to take a toll in rural Nepal? …

Not Nepal, but related. Identification of H9N2 illness, not previously thought to cause illness in humans:

Update: Influenza Activity — United States and Worldwide, 1998–99 Season, and Composition of the 1999–2000 Influenza Vaccine Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, May 14, 1999

In April 1999, the first two cases of human influenza A(H9N2) illness were identified among children hospitalized in March in Hong Kong, Special Administrative Region, People’s Republic of China. Case-patients were girls, aged 1 and 4 years; both recovered from their illnesses. Investigations are under way in Hong Kong to determine the potential impact of this new subtype in humans. Surveillance in Hong Kong has been maintained at enhanced levels since human influenza A(H5N1) infections were identified in 1997. An additional five suspected human cases of H9N2 illness from Guang-dong Province, China, were reported in March 1999 [1].

Tom DVM – at 19:34

It is highly unlikely that this is leptospirosis.

2beans – at 20:05

I think I remember reading that one of the presenting symptoms of early cases of H5N1 was severe diarrhea (cramping). I’ve also read on another site that Japanese encephalitis has occured in that area. Don’t know if poultry are susceptible to that though.

Tom DVM – at 20:41

2beans. I don’t think these symptoms would occur with encephalitis either. It would almost have to be a virus with a gastro-intestinal component like influenza and a few other emerging viruses.

giraffe – at 21:10
 19:34 Tom, I just thought it was interesting that they were “slamming” bloggers and offering an “armchair” diagnosis…which is of what they were accusing the bloggers. “Oh, NO! It CAN’T be avian flu…hahaha!
Tom DVM – at 21:19

giraffe. There are a very narrow group of pathogens that can oral and nasal erosions-ulcers and bleeding. I know of no bacteria that could cause these specific symptoms…

…but there is a group of viruses that can do in…including H5N1 and the emerging virus that was first observed in 1999…they feel it only developed because of the new and huge size of Asian pig farms…I just can’t remember the name…I have always a good memory but its short.

/;0)

Tom DVM – at 21:20

giraffe …and I agree completely with your post.

Grace RN – at 21:23

Time will tell the story here. I don’t think there is any harm to be done in being cognizant of patterns of respiratory illnesses with H5N1 symptoms and fatalities especially when associated with unexplained deaths of poultry and/or carrion eaters.

“It was influenza. Only influenza” (a comment frequently used in “The Great Influenza”)

giraffe – at 21:30

No kidding Grace. Everytime a new Promed update, with the heading “undiagnosed deaths”, breezes through my email… I cringe. I always run to fluwikie to see if it has been reported there already and most times my mind is put to ease. The diligence of the regulars here on the wiki amazes me…and I am greatly appreciative.

Eccles – at 21:31

If we read in between the lines that are in between the lines, then not only is the “Official” PTB reading blogs like this one, but they feel sufficiently threatened by what is written to try to refute it.

Normally if I see someone spouting gibberish about developments in my field, I ignore them, as they are not in the formal literature. I think it fascinating that they are not only reading us, but feel the need to engage our interpretations, albeit via a circuitous route.

2beans – at 21:39

TomDVM:

What’s your opinion on the Promed statement it could be Hantavirus?

giraffe – at 23:02

Well said Eccles!

Ree – at 23:19

TomDVM at 21:19

Are you referring to the Nipah or Hendra virus? Nipah may cause encephalitis and respiratory problems.

21 August 2006

Tom DVM – at 02:41

2beans. I don’t know enough about Hanta to give a firm opinion, but from the little I do know, I believe it is entirely possible…except Hanta is carried by deer mice(I think) and a sudden outbreak of a relatively high number of infected persons might not fit Hanta which I would think would be a little more sporadic in nature.

Ree. Thank you. I believe the virus I read about in Discovery Magazine was Nipah…and one of its clinical signs was bleeding from nose and mouth. This virus also is a serious pandemic contender but it seems we have a lot and are adding to the list almost every month!!

Grace RN – at 20:00

Nothing in the news since that one report-maybe-hopefully-it’s nothing. I’ve learned alot more than I ever wanted to know about infectious diseases in the past 8 years…

Anon_451 – at 20:35

Eccles – at 21:31

If that be the case, should we not see a story soon to refute the cluster in Indon from the Wikie???

ANON-YYZ – at 20:46

Anon_451 – at 20:35

Actually I posted my thoughts about Cikelet being “Easier B2H and Limited H2H”, and today the WHO said no evidence of eaisier B2H nor H2H.

Sheer coincidence, of course.

Anon_451 – at 20:48

ANON-YYZ – at 20:46

WHO said no evidence = The check is in the mail.

Tom DVM – at 20:55

The WHO would be correct in their statement if we, independent scientists, the experts or the WHO had any idea what components and factors are involved in “easier B2H nor H2H”.

I would ask that we compare WHO statements to those of Dr. Taununburgher (sorry about the spelling) who identified the H1N1 sequence or Dr. Webster or Dr. Nabarro…

…they don’t seem to have a problem freely disclosing what they know and don’t know…

…its a wonderful thing when you believe that you can ‘act with impunity’.

ANON-YYZ – at 21:01

Tom DVM – at 20:55

Need you on the news thread something about Newcastle disease .. South Sumatra outbreak.

Anon_451 – at 21:04

Tom DVM – at 20:55 if Dr. Webster or Dr. Nabarro said no H2H I would feel that I could take it to the bank. But what we have seen from the WHO, in this regard, leaves me wondering if they do not want the Pandemic to break out. I know in my heart that they do not but the way they act sometimes makes you wonder.

Tom DVM – at 21:17

Anon 451. I have been directly involved with regulatory agencies on several levels…both as a federally accredited veterinarian and since Sept. 1998 as a ‘whistleblower’ of sorts.

All I can tell you is that the regulatory agencies of today do not remotely resemble the regulatory agencies of the mid-1980′s…why, I don’t know…

…I guess they seemed to have lost their way…they seem to think that they are lobbyists for industries rather than sentinels at the door. It seems to me that you should remember first and foremost, who pays your wages…

…well, the consumer pays their wages and I can tell you without a shadow of a doubt, that as far as food safety goes, it is the ‘Wild West’…the inmates are in charge of the asylum.

There is presently a nine billion dollar class action lawsuit(I believe) in Canada related to a BSE outbreak in 2003 that is going to smarten some of them up…maybe.

22 August 2006

bumping for bill and monotreme – at 07:53
Oremus – at 12:01

Two teams of health workers were sent from a district hospital to investigate the deaths in Betini, about 30 miles northwest of the capital Katmandu, but found no mysterious outbreak, Bikash Lamichane, a doctor at a local hospital said on the telephone Tuesday.

The health workers discovered that only seven had died, five of chronic diseases including asthma and kidney problems, and two of diarrhea, Lamichane said.

Nepal Health Officials Rule Out Outbreak

31 August 2006

laura in pa – at 01:20

bump

28 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:13

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Page last modified on October 28, 2006, at 08:13 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Teaching Tool for Schools PBS Film

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Teaching Tool for Schools PBS Film

29 August 2006

Grace RN – at 21:23

Found this tonight- a PBS film on the 1918 panflu produced in early 2000′s (?) with teachers’ guides. (I ordered 3 for our local board of health to use)

Looks/sounds appropriate for older children (content, wording)

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/influenza/

30 August 2006

LauraBat 15:43

The transcipt is on-line as well under The American Experience. Great show - very eye-opening

Sthrn Tr – at 21:49

Teachers are beginning to be informed. The National Education Association’s NEATODAY magazine (Sept. ‘06) has a 2 pp article on avian influenza.

http://www.nea.org/neatoday/0609/healthfitness.html

School districts are woefully unprepared but this is a start. 2.8 million teachers, administrators, & support staff are members of the NEA.

28 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:12

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Page last modified on October 28, 2006, at 08:12 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Can We Contact the WHO Part 2

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Can We Contact the WHO Part 2

30 August 2006

Bronco Bill – at 18:00

Continued from here

Jefiner – at 21:35

Curiouser and curiouser.

Props to FrenchieGirl for guiding us through the intricacies of the WHO; your insights shed a lot of light onto the otherwise obscure activities there. Just don’t get yerself into trouble!

To quote my dad: Be good. If you can’t be good, then don’t get caught!

28 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:12

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Odds of Longterm Power Grid Failure II

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Odds of Longterm Power Grid Failure II

30 August 2006

Bronco Bill – at 17:53

Continued from here


Hillbilly Bill – at 16:10

David Butcher - the PPPM Guy – at 15:36
Please excuse my poor choice of words. SOME of the pedal power generators being sold, especially those that make use of a retrofit of a friction wheel exercise bicycle, are not very efficient.

In any scenario, manually operated generating devices require quite an expenditure of energy to recoup a small amount of power when you factor in losses in storage and conversion to house current. This may not be a good trade-off in a pandemic situation.

DennisCat 18:07

The problem I have with “all” pedal or crank power for pandemics is that if you are sick you are out of power right when you need it most. I also have some crank lights and such but I also have solar panels, a generator,5 W of hydro ….. The idea is (like the stock market) not to put all your eggs in one basket (my attempt at BF humor).

Will – at 20:32

Just to give an idea of the number of electrical generating facilities in North America;

Powerplants
LauraBat 20:37

My entire state is green (CT) yet we loose power frequently. The Eastcoast outage a few years back showed to me cloud and clear how vulnerable we are on a larger/regional basis as well. I think it started in Ohio - how many miles away is that from CT? Seemingly a lot but in a system that is completely interdependent, only one can bring it all down. It’s not a pretty picture….

Jumping Jack Flash – at 20:38

Will,

It appears you work in the power industry. Can you share what you do?

janetn – at 20:39

Im in a northern area, if we lose power for even a week were in deep doo doo furnaces dont work without electricity. We have lost power in the winter, in the cities they got it back up within a few days. But even then they had to open shelters people would have frozen to death otherwise. Shelters in a pandemic dont sound like such a good idea for several reasons lack of staff transmission of disease ect. So unless TPTB want the majority of the population in northern climates to die not only from AF but hypothermia they better have a real good plan on how to keep the electric on.

Someone asked about Mennonites cooking without electricity. The Mennonites have electricity, its the Amish who shun those wonders. They cook on wood cookstoves or propane stoves, using mostly cast iron. Light is from kerosene lanterns, which stink real bad. Dont even ask about toliet facilites, use your imagination.

We have got 2 genny’s. In my neighborhood we can run afoul of the electricity gods without pandemics.No juice = no well, not a good thing. Deep cell batteries are next on the list along with an inverter thingy. Thats a techincal term BTW. Any recomendations on s good inverter that wont require me to start holding up banks to afford?

spiritaxe – at 20:52

inverters are ok supposing you are willing to buy a few dozen or more batteries and charge them then run the dc power through the inverter. ,,,, remember, each battery will only hold so many amp hours and depending on the load you put on them will run down the batteries just as fast as you can charge them depending on what your trying to run and how your charging them. it’s all the same ,,,,,,, power cant be destroyed only changed in form. and you cant get what you dont first put in even if you change it’s form. thats the rub of power supplies. now water wheels and wind power are free assuming you have the hardware to collect it. ,,,, assuming you have a stream and or a windy day. solar too. but sooner or later you will have to charge a bank of batteries. because it dont rain every day,, the sun dont come out every day, and the wind dont blow every day, and unless you can collect all three ways sooner or later you are going to have to store power. then again dont use it up faster than you can replenish it. physics,,,,, arent they a bitch.

Will – at 20:56

JJF: I haven’t worked for a commercial power provider, though I have worked on DoD systems. My first degree was Electro-mechanical engineering with a concentration in Power Systems. I have friends in the commercial business, though.

Janet: How much current does your well draw normally (not counting startup)? Or if you don’t know that, what is the horsepower rating? Or if you don’t know that, how deep is your well? And is the pump rated 120V or 240V?

28 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:11

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Pellet Stove

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Pellet Stove

19 July 2006

Edna Mode – at 14:47

We are seriously considering getting either a wood stove or a pellet stove to use as our primary source of heat, pandemic or no pandemic. The price of fossil fuels is insane. If we continue with oil this winter, we will spend about $3,000 on fuel. For about that same money, we could get a very good stove and about five to ten cords of wood or several tons of wood pellets.

I have no problem with the manual labor involved with handling wood, but the simplicity of using pellets is really appealing to me.

Does anyone on this list have a pellet stove? If so, would you please share your experience—the good, the bad, and the ugly—so that I and others may benefit from your experience? Would you do it again? Would you stick with good ol’ cord wood? Was your heat even?

For frame of reference, we’d be using this in New England and heating about 1800 s.f. on two floors. We’d still maintain the oil FHW as backup and for hot water.

Calico – at 14:53

Pellet stoves rely on electricity. You won’t have any heat source (pellet stove or furnace) if power goes out unless you have generator or battery backup. Is that a concern to you at all? It is one of the reasons I elected a wood stove instead, although the manual labor of just feeding the stove (which doesn’t hold much wood) gets tedious. Cost of wood went way up middle of last summer.

Are you sure about your numbers? I hope by “very good stove” you mean a new, EPA-approved stove. I don’t see how you can get a stove, properly installed, plus that much wood for $3K. (Are they full cords?) Congrats if this is real. I’m New England and it doesn’t sound right at all. Could you share on what you had in mind?

Calico – at 14:53

(My comment about EPA-approved applies to wood stoves. I don’t know if there are the same issues with a used pellet stove.)

LauraBat 14:55

edna - check my comments on the hand pump thread.

Okidokie – at 14:56

get a corn stove

http://www.cornstoves.info/products.html

http://www.smartbuildingproducts.com/Amaizablaze.htm

Edna Mode – at 15:00

Calico – at 14:53 Yup. For between $3,00–3,500 we can get a brand new Vermont Castings whole house wood stove installed and five dry or eight (ten was too high) green full cords of wood, cut, split and delivered. Your point about electricity for the pellet is huge. Are there no piezo electric start pellet stoves?

Will – at 15:01

We have a highly efficient wood stove insert that can heat our whole house (except for the basement); firewood is readily available just about anywhere and the stove doesn’t require electricity (as mentioned by Calico).

Edna Mode – at 15:01

Alsok, when I said oil FHW for backup, I meant under normal operating conditions, not power outages.

Gary Near Death Valley – at 15:11

Edna Mode – at 14:47 The house we have is a 21 sq. ft manufactured home and we purchased a pellet stove for the house (currently have either propane or electric heat besides), but have only used it a few times toward the end of winter this year, but it heated the house nicely. We also do all those things to cut down needing heat, like wear a sweater etc. At the time of purchase the pellet stove seller told us, that he was notified by the pellet maker (in Arizona), that they would not be gauranteed of any pellets after August of 2006 due to the demand back east and down in the south.

Since then (and having a sewing, quilting and art building built now for the wife), we purchased another pellet stove for that building as that will be the only heat it will have during the winter. The building is a 10 X 20 building and the pellet stove will do quite well in that, and that was the smallest pellet stove we could get.

I had a wood stove when before retiring in Oregon and moving to the desert but down here wood is so expensive, pellets is by far the wiser choice. One thing I did also, is purchase an invertor from Harbor Frieght so that in case of power failure in the wintertime, I can still plug the pellet stove into the invertor (that is connected to a deep cycle 12 volt battery), and still have power to run the pellet screw and fans.

Your question was the heat even, I would say it is very similar to wood heat (basically that is what it is), and I would recommend it to anyone. Again the shortage of pellets may be a problem coming, so if one has a pellet stove or planning on buying one, get a couple of ton of pellets to carry you thru the year and beyond. Currently we have 3 ton (2 ton purchased and 1 ton free with a purchase of the pellet stove for the wifes playroom), so that will last us at least 3 to 5 years. The temperature can get down in the single digits out here in the high desert, but then in the daytime the sun warms up enough to walk outside in a tee shirt.

Hope this information helped.

Calico – at 15:12

Edna, I found this comment: “Many pellet burning stoves can be loaded to release pellets slowly so that manual tending of the stove’s heat is unnecessary. This can allow time-released pellets that maintain a steady temperature and ensure safe and steady combustion. Most wood pellet stoves require electricity to operate, however battery packs are available in case of power outages.” So, it may depend on how the pellet stove operates. Your source should be able to tell you. Frankly, the time-released feature would be important to me, one of the things that would distinguish it from a wood stove.

Calico – at 15:15

One other point. The stove must vent. If you intend to use an existing flue, have you had it checked? I paid for a new one-piece liner in my chimney (for the insert in the livingroom, as opposed to the standalone on the 3-season porch) rather than deal with a very awkward removal of the stove every time it had to be cleaned. Also, having the stove will affect your house insurance so you want to be very sure to pull a permit and have it inspected upon installation.

Ange D – at 15:17

also bags of pellets are 50 pounds each. You need to be able to store a LARGE amount of them somewhere IN your house. Personally, dragging around a 50 pound bag of pellets from wherever they are stored is unappealing. One of my girlfriends has one and her husband threw his back out once and was unable to lift more than 5 pounds all winter long.

Our woodstove is free-standing backup heat in the middle of stone enclosure in a stone wall in a 1000 square foot room, but we use it all winter long to heat a very large home. I could also cook on it and often will put a pot of beans on it to cook. You can roll potatoes in aluminum foil and bake them in the coals during blizzards. It is toasty and warm heat. The only problem is wood is dirty and you must vacuum and sweep more often and on a daily basis.

We harvest our own wood from our property. Chopping wood does wondrous things for middle-aged bosoms. If you have disc problems, it’s best to purchase wood. If you are going to buy 10 cords of wood, I would go visit the woodcutter and check out the quality of his wood before he/or she delivers it.

Okidokie – at 17:05

corn stoves dont need a full vent, just a simple through the wall dryer vent. easy as one, two, three with a 5″ hole saw. Your done. Presto.

Clawdia – at 17:08

Don’t rely on anything that requires electricity to operate, or otherwise, just don’t bother to do anything. A pellet stove, as I had it explained to me, in no way is comparable to a good woodstove. We put a small woodstove in our 2400 sq ft. house last winter . . . cost of stove about $1000, cost of updating chinney with liner another $1000, wood for two winters - $150. Peace of mind well worth it.

ssol – at 17:20

We have burned wood and coal for many years, but not pellets. My wife likes both for different reasons. She likes the smell of a wood fire but does not alway like tending it - it needs care more often than coal. She likes coal because you put a load in each morning and evening, shake the ashes out, and that’s it. Coal burns hotter and warms a house faster than wood, all other things being equal.

As far as hoisting 50 lb. bags go - you do not have to do it. When I am away, my wife can load coal into a coal hod (specially shaped bucket) with a coal shovel, which looks like a big, flat sugar scoop. It holds about 4 cups of coal. You could certainly scoop pellets too.

We heat a drafty 2000 sq. ft. farmhouse in NE Pa. with 3 ton of coal and 1 cord of wood. A cord costs about $130 delivered (but we cut our own) and coal costs $130/ton delivered.

You can also burn wood in a coal stove but the salesman is not allowed to tell you that according to EPA rules. No danger though, unless you’re a bureaucrat :)

DennisCat 17:56

You do not have to carry the entire bag- just fill your bucket and take it to the stove. (also our pellets come in 40 pound bags not 50)

Our stove can use either pellets or corn. It is just that with corn you have to clean it out at the end of the day - no biggie. But they do use electricity. However you can get ones that work on 12VDC or have batter backup. I just use an inverter off my solar array. Mine runs about 30 to 50 watts - that is for the blower fan and the feed.

I am told that “they” (?) have some stove that use corn, pellets or wood chips. But I just haven’t located any wood chip stoves.

You have to keep the pellets dry and you have to keep the corn from the critters. However the corn is often cheaper than the pellets and I figure I can also eat the corn if you really get hungry.

I also use the pellets (with a little peat moss) to grow mushrooms.

I should say I use it now only to heat my greenhouse since I now use propane.

Dan – at 18:15

One alternative is to use a regular wood stove or fireplace insert with compressed wastewood/sawdust logs (aka Presto logs). The cost is not much higher than cord wood when bought by the pallet, but the convenience, even heat, easy start, low emmisions, and low waste ash are a real plus. Your fuel is the same as pellets but you don’t need electricity to run the thing.

CAMikeat 18:25

I was under the impression that you could get a stove that could burn either pellets or wood. Anybody know about this? I have a small place in the mountains (750 sq. ft.) that a friend is using. It gets cold up their (for Northern California - rarely gets below freezing) so having a wood stove seemed to make sense to me. I was thinking dual use - pellets or wood. So, am I mistaken? Thanks in advance.

Mike

Edna Mode – at 19:57

Thanks everybody for the thoughts. I am going to have to look more into the electricity dependency of pellet stoves. If it’s strictly for the fan/air circulation, that’s not a problem. I can’t imagine that there is any other electric component, but I don’t know that for sure.

Storing the pellets wouldn’t be a problem. Storing corn would be given the critter factor.

The chimney liner issue is, thankfully, not an issue. We have a relatively new home with three lined flues, all of which are in excellent condition.

I am leaning more toward a traditional wood stove. The up front expense this year would be a drag, but once the stove is in, our heating costs would be about a third of what they’d be for oil. And costs aside, the independence of a wood stove is liberating.

Will – at 15:01 May I ask what make/model stove you use in your home?

urdar-Norge – at 20:09

Edna. get the new modern wood ovens that is “clean burning” less local polution and higher effeciceny of the wood. In norway they are now the only ovens you can buy. This is a norwegian and very solid producer..

http://www.jotul.com/Content/SiteCommon/StartPage____1978.aspx

remember that wood ovens are some work to maintaine. Pellets are the future for the convinient folks.. but I think burning a wood oven with a glass front is some of the worlds best things.. (it realy tells yous something about energy useage..)

Calico – at 20:42

Edna, I thought the main electrical feature of the pellet stove was to feed it more pellets over time, based on a thermostat perhaps. But there should be plenty of info out there on it.

DennisCat 20:43

Edna Mode – at 19:57 “If it’s strictly for the fan/air circulation, that’s not a problem”

Understand the fan is not for air circulation out of the stove, it is for the blower that feeds air to the burning pellets. It acts like a “blast furnace” or bellows to keep it burning. It isn’t just a stack of burning pellets. It is more like an incinerator.

janetn – at 21:05

Dont like pellet stoves besides all the aforementioned problems. They dont have the same abiance as a woodstove. Nothing like throwing in a log of applewood, the smell is heavenly! Make a woodbox it eliminates a lot of the mess of wood.

Edna Mode – at 21:52

DennisC – at 20:43 “Understand the fan is not for air circulation out of the stove, it is for the blower that feeds air to the burning pellets. It acts like a “blast furnace” or bellows to keep it burning.”

Ooooooh. Got it.

urdar-Norge – at 20:09 and janetn – at 21:05

I agree. The ambiance of a wood stove is heaven. This thread has reminded me how much I love stoking the fire, watching the flames dance. It’s totally therapeutic. And Urdar-Norge, thanks for the refer to Jotul. I need to see how they stack up next to Vermont Castings (which we have had in the past and love). Jotuls are nice looking stoves as well.

Gprep0 – at 22:16

We’ve got a Jotul Castine and love it. I opted for simplicity of operation vs the stoves with catalytic converters. You can’t beat the comfort of knowing you’ve got your heating needs covered. Stove was around $1,800 and the installation was another $1,000 with a full liner. You can go 1/2 liner into the smoke chamber, but when you have the stove cleaned they’ll need to take the whole thing out and likely charge you more.

Edna- “The chimney liner issue is, thankfully, not an issue. We have a relatively new home with three lined flues, all which are in excellent condition”

Liner condition is not the only issue- Size is, and the stove specs will tell you if what you have is what you need. If it calls for a smaller flue you’ll need the liner.

What a huge geographic variety in wood pricing. I live in eastern MA and the cost of a full cord is around $230

20 July 2006

Bridge Lifter – at 00:22
 I wanted a pellet stove but went with wood based on the shear simplicity… I envisioned a worst case event and could not see myself burning furniture in a corn stove.

 Some of the newer wood burners incorporate a combuster which reduces the creosote and increases the efficiency.
Clawdia – at 00:34

We went with a Jotul as well. Before making any final decisions about a wood stove, be sure and talk to your homeowner’s insurance carrier to see how it will effect your policy. Our installation and chimney liner had to be approved by our insurer, or they had the right to cancel our policy.

PBQ – at 05:13

When DH and I get a stove it will be a soapstone stove. I’ve checked into corn, pellet and coal. Soapstone has advantages over all the others. Another great thing about soapstone is you can cook right on top! Use it as a griddle even. The only problem I see in a soapstone stove is if you have little kids. The stove gets very hot on the outside (all stoves do but…) and stays hot for hours after the fire is out. It also need to be freestanding which can be a problem.

Pellet stoves use electricity to feed the pellets into the heating chamber and pellets are sometimes hard to come by and you can’t make your own. Same with corn. You will have to research and figure out which stove meets your needs.

Calico – at 08:22

Soapstone does not get hot enough to cook nearly as much as other types of wood stoves, so it is still a compromise.

urdar-Norge – at 09:02

just wondering, what is a corn stove? do you burn food in the US? or is it the chalks of mais corn you burn?

anonymous – at 09:37

I work for a conservation organization in New England. We have a pellet buring fireplace in our conference room, and we rely mostly on a wood pellet boiler system to heat our large center. Both work very efficiently. To get more information on wood burning boiler systems/fireplaces, simply Google “pellet biurners”. You will find adequate, interesting sites to research.

lbb – at 09:46

More experience here…

Soapstone retains and disperses heat gradually. A metal stove heats up faster, throws out more heat faster, cools down faster…better for cooking on, less good for heating a house.

In my area, the cost of cordwood is less variable than the cost of pellets.

You can’t add a woodstove to a flue that already vents something. Once upon a time, yes; now, no.

Gprep0 – at 10:44

lbb - I Couldn’t agree more. I’ve owned both. The soapstone takes longer to heat up, but retains heat hours longer. However,if you’re too hot it takes forever to cool off too. You’re also correct the external temp will not be adequate for cooking.

One more thing to consider. While the Porcelain enameled stoves are beautful to look at, the enamel can be easily damaged if you overfire the stove - (and it’s very easy to do if you’re not careful) If you plan on using the stove alot go with the standard black finish. Just my $.02

Edna Mode – at 11:18

You all are a wealth of information!

After reading voraciously, I’m definitely going with a wood stove. The point is to not be reliant on outside fuel suppliers. Pellet supply can be sketchy around here according to a couple of distributors I’ve checked with.

We have three separate flues and are only using two of them. Flue size is OK for the stoves we are considering. May need an adapter for one, but otherwise, OK. And I will call my homeowners insurance co. We already had the fireplace, so I’m hoping adding the wood stove is not considered material.

Thank you all for the great info!

tjclaw1 – at 11:45

urdar-Norge – at 09:02 “just wondering, what is a corn stove? do you burn food in the US? or is it the chalks of mais corn you burn?”

Here in the midwest U.S., a lot of people use dry shelled corn to heat their homes. We are in the “corn belt” and my understanding is that this is the type of corn that would be used to feed animals, etc., not sweet corn. Perhaps someone who is a corn farmer could explain. Anyway, here’s some info on corn burning: http://tinyurl.com/8c684

I’ve seen some pretty units that put out a lot of heat and 50 lb of corn burns down to about 1 cup of ash. Now I’ve heard some people say it smells like popcorn, but I’ve never observed that.

Okidokie – at 12:15

Shelled corn is the corn typically grown by farmers for the feed market. The US grows about 280,000,000 tons of corn annually. About 20% is exported. The US has available farmland to grow 50% more corn than we do, but there is no use for it. Corn is a btu stable commodity and at current prices it is equivalent to buying heating oil for less than $1.00/gallon. Corn is clean and is renewable every 90 days. Tree’s on the other hand take a really long time to grow. Pellets dont always have the same heat content depending on whether the pellet is made from pine, oak or bark. For more information see

http://www.smartbuildingproducts.com/p_biomass.htm

bgw in MT – at 23:14

We got a Napoleon 1100C enameled cast iron woodburning stove last fall and we love it. Our stove cost $1200 (no sales tax in Montana). This does not include installation.

Napoleon’s woodburning stove website is:

 Napoleon Woodstoves

Their woodburning stove brochure is at:

 Napoleon woodstove brochure

The brochure will give you specifics on capacity, BTUs, etc.

Ours is a smallish size stove to heat a very small house, so the wood has to be cut into short lengths. Napoleon makes stoves that take much larger lengths and heat a large house.

A good place to read consumer ratings on woodstoves is Hearth.com. We bought the Napoleon brand because it had very high ratings and we liked the way it looked. It was also the least expensive enameled cast iron stove that we found. The enameling is gorgeous and has stayed in perfect shape.

The glass windows stay clear in this type stove IF the fire is hot, but they will get residue on them if you have to have a slow fire. I understand this happens with all glass door stoves. The residue burns off the next time you have a hot fire going. You can always see the fire through the glass, however, and it is lovely.

Our stove is so much better than a fireplace because it heats so much more efficiently and still has the same ambiance. The sides and the top of our stove stay cool enough to touch. Nearly all the heat comes out the front. It is possible to have this type of stove in an alcove if the alcove is of sufficient size. If you need to cook on it, you can remove the top cast iron piece (or this is what my husband tells me anyway.)

Though this stove is not catalytic, it is so efficient that we got a $500 tax credit from the state of Montana for installing it. From what I read you want to avoid the catalytic models.

21 July 2006

urdar-Norge – at 07:18

corn as a ready made pellet.. hmm its a good idea.. its anyway a bio fuel and better than any fossil.. But the idea of burning food.. ? very american ;) If seeing this in a peak oil perspeketive my guess is that we will not have a lot of corn left for any other use than food. So prices will rocket… Wood is often from areas where its not grown food, and forrests have other values and uses as well.

Pellets will be a future big thing, and finding it will be alot more easy, the oilbarons of the future are the farmers :)

Kim – at 07:36

I’ll jump into the corn as fuel discussion. Corn is being used more and more in the US, both for direct heating (burning in a stove) and the production of ethanol. Corn may mature in 90 days, but it’s not renewable every 90 days, the weather limits a corn crop to one crop per year. Corn takes alot of water to grow, which is something that’s becoming in short supply over much of the “corn belt” (many aquifers across the midwest and west are drying up). I see corn as a small piece of the puzzle, not as the cure-all that some do, for these reasons and for the reasons urdar-Norge lists above.

Brooks – at 08:23

My chimney sweep always gushes about my Lopi wood stove. It produces only very fine ash. Less chance of a chimney fire developing.

urdar-Norge – at 08:47

trying to drift more to crisis topic.. stone is a exelent heath storage. ovens with stone gives a more stabil heath, and less stress with continius feeding of the oven. But in solar heathing water is considered twise as good as stone as a heath storage. I do not recomend placing your water supply close to a oven if it a plastic barrel. But for thoose who have no alternative heating like a wood oven etc, putting the water storage in a room who is heated will give you some few extra days to keep warm in a blackout..

my dream wood oven is covered whith a big mass of stone with a glass front, it the perfekt mix, quick heath in front of the glass and long storage for keeping warm thru the cold nights. The old ones with glased stones are the old perfection of sirkulating the smoke thru long channels up and down. If i was rich I would get a old one and specially make a glass door, and insert a catalytich thing to increase the burning and reduce sooth. :D

Eduk8or – at 08:51

Kim @ 7:36 Many aquifers across the midwest and west are drying up

Most of the corn crop in the main “corn belt” Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana are not irrigated, there is plenty of rain to supply the water needed to grow an over-abundance of corn. Most irrigation starts on the western edge of iowa near the Missouri river and continues westward. I know the Ogallala Aquifer in CO, NE, SD has shrunk considerably but the large aquifer most of the population of Eastern Iowa (that includes a lot of livestock as well) gets it’s water from is very full.

There is at least one business starting up within the next year to start pulling water out at 1 million gallons a day for sales to the OK, KS, and NE areas as “rural water”. The consultant from the state that examined the test well and the effect of pulling that much water out on the aquifer (since a main town well sits within 1 mile) said no problem for either well or the more shallow ones in the area.

As a corn farmer in Iowa it is one of our expectations to use corn as a heating source if necessary, current prices on a bushel of corn is $1.80 which I’m told will heat a 2500 sq ft house for a day. We just summer filled our LP tank for $1.30 a gallon and we typically use 1000 gallons in a winter (mid-october - early April the furnace runs)

Univ of Minn fuel comparison

Using these figures dry shelled corn at $2.00 bushel (56 lbs) is about 1/2 the price per BTU than LP at $1.00 gallon and about 1/3 the cost of using electricity (resistance heating).

urdar-Norge – at 09:05

Interesting article Eduk8or, there is also some interesting useages for hemp in such a picture, problem with groving fuel using fertilezers, pesticides etc is that you use a lot of fuel to create fuel. Forrest do the trick by them self, and hemp is claimed to be better than a lot of plant to withstand heath, dry and no fertilizer.. Well I am no farmer, and as Kim says, there is no single golden solution on the energy crises as well.. In Sweden they grow so called “enegy forrest” its fast growing Selje “Salix caprea” that is harvested every 5 years or so, and converted to pellets. Nice thing about it is that its grown in all the areas that is uneffecinet to grov food in. hills, small lands etc..

Okidokie – at 10:18

Udar Norge - corn is a member of the grass family. In fact it is solar energy stored in a chemical form. Calories for food or fuel is the same thing. We have to use solar energy in every way possible. Wind energy is derived from the sun, biomass is derived from the sun, etc. Think outside the box. Besides we dont eat feed corn, its used for animals, corn meal, bio plastics, corn oil, ethanol, etc. Corn is cheap, easy to grow, renewable, and already uses existing farm land. We wont have to deforest the land to heat our homes.

tjclaw1 – at 10:43

Eduk8or – at 08:51 - I live in Western Illinois in the Sauk Valley, and commute to the Quad Cities every day. With the amount of rain we’ve received this season, I’ve seen very little irrigation going on and the corn crops are about the best I’ve seen in years. Do you predict a bumper crop? If so, perhaps the price of heating a home with corn will be even more advantageous this year? We’re thinking about getting one of the whole-house heating corn burners that would go in our basement and can also be hooked up to the hot water heater. Do you use a corn burner and, if so, what brand?

Kim – at 11:00

At the risk of this becoming a political discussion and being scolded by the mods, I’ll jump in again. True that windpower, solar power, all biomass comes from the sun. I disagree with okidokie that deforestation is a prerequisite for heating our homes, there is such a thing as sustainable forestry. There are also a huge variety of other forms of biomass (hay, straw, hemp, etc etc) that can be used to make ethanol besides corn. I stand by my statement that corn requires an immense amount of water (and fertilizer, herbicides and pesticides) to produce well and requires that a good amount of fuel be expended to produce it. At the risk of angering corn (and maybe other) farmers everywhere, I do object to the vast monocultures involved… thousands upon 1,000′s of contiguous, unbroken acres of a single crop is a recipe for disaster (insect & disease). I guess what concerns me most is putting all our eggs in one basket, so to speak… instead of having just ONE form of fuel that EVERYONE uses, perhaps it makes more sense to have fuels that can be locally produced. If you’re a corn farmer, by all means burn corn. If you live on forested land, wood is the way to go. The Plains Indians burned buffalo chips (manure) because it was plentiful. In Montana they use forest slash (the brush left from forestry activities) to supply heat and energy to some of their schools. In cities some are using old french fry grease to power vehicles. There is no ONE answer to our energy problems, I guess is what I’m trying to say. And we should have learned this simple lesson by now, when we have to open our wallets to pay for gasoline and heating oil. It’s not fun to be dependant on the whims of some faraway ruler somewhere to keep your house warm or provide you with transportation.

urdar-Norge – at 11:40

I think this is a brilliant discussion. In a pandemic a independent heath source is essential. But many of them demands high investment, (chimney, piping for solar etc.. Buying a oven is also a innvestment for many years, (I got one right here intended for coal, its 100 years old and is a lousy and poluting wood burner. But very pretty and with hugh heat storage mass of cast iron). Pellets are made from wood from different industries, for instance when pruducing contruktion wood, all the leftovers are turned into pellets. No deforestation is needed ( in Norway the area of forrests are larger than it was some 100 years ago due to responsible forresting).

My point is that I belive the corn overpruduction is about to end in the long run. When fuels for machines, fertilicers and pesticides rice in price the land for growing food will be more valuble, (less use of fertilizer reduses the crops) so my guess is that all usefull land will be for food. Simple energy for burning will be that areas that is not as well suited for food prod. For ethanol and bidisesel the food areas ar probably the best, so this will also put presurse on this capacity.

Then i would ask myself, is it wise to innvest in a oven that only burns corn, or should I look for one that also is good for pellets or plain old firewood.? :)

CYgnetat 11:59

One thing to realize is that in America, there are vast tracts of land where there ARE NO TREES. No wood. You’d need to truck in any wood you used for heating. Corn is local.

(Using wood from construction wouldn’t be feasible either as many of these areas in the plains states are experiencing very little growth, or even negative population growth.)

The best form of heating really depends on where you live … my house in the low deserts of Arizona really wouldn’t need heat at all; it freezes at night most winter nights but the house is well insulated and doesn’t get much below 50 if I leave the heat off. It heats up during the day to a comfortable temp. (I rarely run the heat in winter at night — that’s what blankets are for. For comfort’s sake, I might turn it on when I get up if I’m not going to work — i.e., a weekend — but I’d survive just fine without it.)

My father’s cabin in northern arizona is heated primarily with wood, though it also has a small propane furnace that’s there primarily to keep the pipes from freezing in winter when no on’s home!

Wood is THE way to go in Northern Arizona. We’re having issues here with bark beetles killing trees in large swaths. A permit to cut up to 11 cords of dead juniper or oak from the national forest was $25. Ponderosa permits were free and unlimited. (Though you shouldn’t burn ponderosa inside.) So for $25, plus gas for the chainsaw and vehicles, you can get a winter’s wood of wood in a few days worth of hard work. Can’t beat that. ;)

Just depends on where you live …

22 August 2006

Frank – at 09:51

Edna,I have heated my 2400sf house in new england for 25 years.Last year I bought a pellet stove insert($1700) which fits in my fireplace.Unlike a wood stove, you don’t lose heat with an insert because it operates more like a furnace than radiant heat.I used 3 tons(pallets) to heat my house last winter($600).Two ton stack nicely along a 15ft wall in my basement.I have a bad back and carrying bags is no biggy but I use two coal type hods when my back is not good.I bought a generator for power back up($300)which also powers other things like refrigerators tvs etc.Buy your pellets in the summer and never worry about supply.My wife is a clean freak and loves the pellet stove vs.the wood stove.A great investment.

Hillbilly Bill – at 10:06

My neighbor has a pellet stove insert in his fireplace. I chatted with him the other day and he said pellets are in short supply this year and he is not sure that he will be able to get enough.

I use a wood furnace to supplememt my natural gas furnace and so far I have had no trouble getting firewood.

Carrey in VA – at 10:22

We have a woodstove in the basement of a 3000 sqft house. This is what we use to heat the house with all winter. The only draw back is that to get full use of the woodstove we have to have electricity to run the fan. When the power goes out we take the door off the stove and we keep the fire smaller so as not to burn the fan up. Anyone have any better suggestions?

DennisCat 10:38

Carrey in VA remember that the electricity not only runs the fan, it also runs the “feed” for the pellets. So when the power goes off the fire will burn itself out fairly quickly.

OH, yes, the pellets are great for the kitty litter- they soak up both most of the smell and the liquids. You also can use the oak ones for growing mushrooms.

Carrey in VA – at 10:42

Ours is a normal wood burning stove, not a pellet stove.

It’s double walled with a blower in the back that blows air through the chamber and out the front of the stove.

Edna Mode – at 10:52

Carrey in VA – at 10:22

Carrey, I’m assuming the fan just circulates the air in the immediate vicinity and it actually gravity feeds to the rest of the house? Do you have floor grates to facilitate that?

Carrey in VA – at 10:58

The fan blows hot air out the front of the stove from the chamber around the fire box. Basically pumping more heat out into the room so less waste up the chimney. We do have grates to allow the heat to rise through the house. When the power is on, we also use fans to help move the heat more efficently. We will probably just close the door at the top of the basement stairs and live down thier while the power is out.

Edna Mode – at 11:13

That is probably your best strategy. The only other thing you may want to consider is asking someone at a local stove shop about the placement of your floor grates. I never knew this until recently, but if your floor grates are incorrectly placed, they can actually interfere with the convection effect of the air circulation.

You always here that cold air falls, hot air rises. That’s true, but under certain circumstances, the cold won’t compete with the heat, creating kind of a gridlock that prevents the heat from circulating as best it could.

We are having a wood burning insert installed tomorrow in our fire place (not for pandemic, although it’ll come in handy, but to beat oil prices). We were advised where to install a floor grate to ensure the best circulation of the cold air/hot air cycle.

Edna Mode – at 11:14

Doh! Should have been “hear” not “here.”

Carrey in VA – at 11:21

Now that is something I would be interested in knowing. I just assumed that you would want grates right above the stove, and then another set of grates opposite the stove.

Edna Mode – at 12:07

Carrey in VA – at 11:21

Depending on the layout of your rooms, that may be the perfect grate placement for your purposes. That’s why you need to talk to someone who knows what they’re doing and who knows your floorplan or for whom you can sketch your floorplan.

Oregon mom – at 13:05

I have a pellet stove and love it. You pour the bag in and set the temp for what you would like the house to stay it. It heats the house comfortably and much less mess then wood. We put several pallets of pellets in the shop since the price is suppose to significantly increase in the fall. BUT I would probally put the wood stove in now since finding this board I view things in a whole new light. As long as you have wood you will always have heat.

23 August 2006

Hurricane Alley RN – at 10:22

bump

AVanartsat 10:29

“Oregon mom – at 13:05 As long as you have wood you will always have heat. “

Does your pellet stove allow for manual opperation when the electricity is out? If so, what kind do you have?

Oregon Mom – at 11:15

AVanarts- No my pellet stove does not allow for manual opperation. I wish it did. We have a wood stove in the shop that we can move in the house if we have to.

29 August 2006

spiritaxe – at 12:28

i bought and installed a wood stove after losing power in 1998 for a week due to an ice storm in the northeast. the next year i bought the wood stove. BEST THING I EVER DID! it’s allready paid for itself a couple times over. not only have i been able to reduce my propane bill by about 2/3 in winter but i can and do burn all my scape paper, cardboard, food boxes, newspapers, wood pallets, construction wood (not pressure treated or plywood ) it’s all free btu’s !!! and i am thinking about making a “grid” for holding scoops of wood pellets and or coal. so they will burn in the wood stove. it’s just a matter of allowing proper air flow around the pellets so they dont smother out. coal stoves traditionaly have to be made differantly to handle the much more intence heat that coal delivers but if used in moderation just as a suppliment to the coal bed made from the wood it burns a little longer and hoter and a “small” scoop or coal just before bed i’ve heard is as good as an “all nighter” log. coal is much dirtier also. i have allso been reading about how they are now making pellets out of grass and hay and corn for cheap fule for stoves. i kinnda have a problem with burning “food” but the grass thing is cool. i cook on the wood stove too ! some cast iron pans and your good to go !! and a couple of pressure cookers and you can tenderize an old boot in about an hour, !! yup,,, cant beat a wood stove man. I HIGHLY recommened them. the only problem i had was once i fired up my wood stove the first time i found out exactly where all the cold drafts were in my home,,,, and you will too !! the flue of a wood fire sucks alot of air in to breath. i solved the problem by running a 1 inch pipe through the outside wall near my stove for a fresh air intake,,, i even put a valve on it to close it during summer. , hav’nt had a problem since ;). good luck.

Bronco Bill – at 12:35

spiritaxe – at 12:28 --- Be very careful with the amount of paper products you burn in your woodstove. They can create a lot of creosote in the chimney, and that needs to cleaned out at least once a year. Also, have a good chimney screen on the top of the chimney to catch floating, burning paper…

spiritaxe – at 12:47

i brush my stack every three months regaurdless.. never had a crosote problem in 7 years now. i even burn softwoods ,,pine and such. notorious for creosote but smell great!!! i have never had a problem. and i bang off the top screen regularly . you pretty much have to ,,,, if the screen gets clogged the flue is nill and the stove is worthless unless you feel the need to fumigate your livingroom with woodsmoke. .. been there done that :)

30 August 2006

Okidokie – at 12:18

Ill bet that no one realizes that corn “IS” a grass. Corn is the best natural fuel out their. I bet you cant buy pellets for $125/ton or less. Dont be silly with the “i have a problem burning food” its not food. It a solar derived fuel in a chemical form. This is all about economics. Last year, half the people I knew couldnt even find pellets due to the distribution channel issue. I was cozy warm cause my farmer down the road had plenty of surplus.

AzNewBeat 13:50

When we were living in New Mexico DH worked for a pellet plant. In the off season the company sold pellets really cheap around $125/ton biggest problem is that you need to transport them yourself to keep costs down.There was one group from CO that would buy a semi load and split the cost of moving them. Most pellet plants will sell to private buyers in the off season, once the season gets going though all their product is most likely already sold to suppliers. Also the pellet stove we used would burn corn and crushed nut shells without having to adjust the feed rate.

spiritaxe – at 18:43

well with that burn corn mentality why not burn cotton and wheat???? we should really consider hemp,,,, it grows real fast ,it would be at least half again cheaper than corn to grow,,, it’s not eaten by livestock or humans,,,,and the surplus oil from the seeds can be used to fuel other mechanizms. but nooooooooo. just because you found a way to save yourself some bucks dont make it right dude. there are still hungry people on this planet. just because your nieghbor has extra is not a reason to burn it. especialy when there are better alternatives. it’s greed thats going to kill this country and it’s allready sick as i see it,,,,,, bird flu notwithstanding. …. but thats just me. good luck corn boy. :).

EOD – at 19:46

Here’s a good site with losts of general & specific info on the whole topic.

http://tinyurl.com/ztz64

And check out this site for stoves, I bought & installed the CUMBERLAND GAP model last fall and would not trade it for anything. This co also has pellet stoves that will burn either pellets or corn - not all do.

http://tinyurl.com/gzvkm

spiritaxe – at 19:49

a test !!!,,,, a test for corn boy,,,,,, put a peck of corn and a peck of wood next to his wood stove,,,,,, now sit him down and make him linger for a month without eating,,,,, now he says he was toasty warm burning the corn,,,,, but what will he choose to eat at the end of the month? i rest my case. termites we are not.

spiritaxe – at 19:50

a test !!!,,,, a test for corn boy,,,,,, put a peck of corn and a peck of wood next to his wood stove,,,,,, now sit him down and make him linger for a month without eating,,,,, now he says he was toasty warm burning the corn,,,,, but what will he choose to eat at the end of the month? i rest my case. termites we are not.

28 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:10

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Beyond 12 Weeks

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Beyond 12 Weeks

27 August 2006

Wolf – at 13:41

Interspersed in various threads I’ve seen advice regarding long term infrastucture failure. Is anyone considering long-haul preps in the event things don’t ‘get back to normal’ for awhile? Please discuss. I live near considerable freshwater source(s), but many do not. A city dweller, I garden, but my small lot has been commandeered for fruit trees and berries - nothing but squash and beans can successfully compete for sunlight anymore. I have applied container gardens in ‘grow-bags’ which can be moved around if necessary (however, in my case, there just isn’t anywhere to GROW anymore:) Fresh meat seems an impossible goal - although ensuring fishing supplies are up to snuff is right up there as far as preps go. Have also considered rabbits; a livestock which can be successfully farmed in a small space (squab also, but given the AF threat, will stick to rabbits for the time being) Urbanites like myself will benefit greatly from the wisdom from country folks in how to adapt our postagestamp size areas should the need arise. Like Monotreme, I am greatly concerned about the urban populace, but there is much we can do - provided we have the skills. Your input is appreciated.

SaddleTrampat 14:09

Rabbits are excellent for small acreages but there’s a lot of difference from breed to breed, including temperament. My sister (who has done 4H rabbits for years) breeds a cross-bred satin that is very easy to skin - it just peels off, pretty much in one piece. When cleaned and processed, one rabbit in stewing brine fits nicely in a half-gallon canning jar.

Housing for rabbits is fairly specialized too, from size of wire openings in the cages, to hot weather air circulation, to cost of feed, disposal of manure, etc. Dont just hop into the project. This one requires some real research. Talk to your county 4H coordinator or extension specialist (usually from your state agricultural university) for advice and contacts.

Wolf – at 14:12

Thanks, Saddletramp. Will do. (good tip about the Satins)

heddiecalifornia – at 14:15
  Just a note about our recent City Newsletter — along with the Bird Flu and West Nile information, they have some notices about the following: 

    Help Clean Fremont’s Local waterways - Mark your Calendar for Coastal Cleanup Day — with info on where to go to volunteer — “Caring for local waterways provides a healthier ecosystem and improves water gaulity for wildlife and their habitats”  might also pertain to better water for humans, if necessary --- Also notice about “Stivers Lagoon Field trips for Third Graders” with info about our local Clean Water Education Program” 

      There’s another notice “Bay Friendly Gardening Workshops” for “sustainable, healthy and beautiful gardens”  offers  design, building healthy soil, managing pests naturally, plant selection, and creating a year-round edible garden, also a 70 page guide Bay Friendly gardening.

Finally, there’s more info on where to go to recycle batteries, tubes, bulbs, and electronics out of the garbage.

All in all, there is some progress!!

Oremus – at 14:21

27 August 2006

I don’t know the cost, but you could check fish hatcheries about stocking your local fresh water sources.

Wolf – at 14:23

Heddie in CA, 20+ years growing organically. Unfortunately, my waterways do not reflect that committment.

Milo – at 14:28

I’m about 95% vegetarian anyway, so I won’t be any help with the meat question, but as far as fresh vegetables go, I’ve stocked up on seeds for sprouting. This might already be obvious to you. They’re very nutritious, high in vitamins. They don’t take up much room in your cupboard as prep items. You can sprout them year-round. They do need a little warmth to sprout and they need to be rinsed a couple times a day with clean water, but that’s about all they need.

Wolf – at 14:28

Oremus - they do! But mostly for local recreational fishing - if you don’t mind spending hours to catch a dressed 4 oz-er, you’re good to go! Anything above a pound in local lakes, better slice off ALL extraneous flesh - mercury. Even then, a risk. But I’ll take mercury (short term) over starving. Thanks for the info.

Medical Maven – at 14:29

Beyond 12 weeks there is no hope for successfully coping with infrastructure failure unless someone or some group establishes “law and order’ in your area. Otherwise all of your gardening efforts, orchard endeavors, and animal husbandry ventures are for naught. After a High CFR/First Wave Winnowing you (Wolf) need to immediately accomodate yourself with the local “wolfpack”, make it worthwhile for them to take you in and dangerous (and a no-win) for them not to. (This strategy assumes that “law and order” is absent). Unless they are hard-core criminals you can probably strike a deal if you have enough skills and stuff. But you have to get your “pitch” ready to go, to make your case in a compelling manner from the relative safety of your home. Your only intermediate hope after the Grid Goes Down is a security zone in which like-minded people can safely pursue those activities that shelter, clothe, and feed the community.

Oh, and if there is no “wolfpack” in your area, it is incumbent upon you to form one.

Wolf – at 14:32

Hi, Milo Have sprouting seeds in the crisper now. I like radishes (don’t think the nutrition’s that great, tho) Really will consider serious sprouts. I actually am not much of a meat-eater in any event, but keeping options open.

heddiecalifornia – at 14:34

Wolf —

 My husband and I have been gardening on and off for 30 years or so — two of the best small space vegetable gardening books are ‘The Square Foot Garden’ and another one on “The French Intensive Gardening Method” (hard to find but sometimes in used book stores/web sites)  that gives very high yields on very small spaces. 

   Trellises and supports, and ‘espaliered’ fruit trees, either free standinging or along fences, also use smaller spaces to advantage.  You can make vertical squash gardens using wood trellis supports and little hammocks or slings for the squash or pumpkins out of netting or knit materials.

   French intensive gardening lists plants that, grown closely together, enhance production of each other.  French Intensive also includes information on natural soil amendments, like bone meal, wood ash, cured manure, peat moss, and compost that allow you to keep using the same soil over and over with high yields. Might help with your potted/grow bagged plants. 

   Also, look into pre-season starts of plants in cold frames, or indoors, to get a head start; likewise, ways to keep plants alive after first freeze to extend harvest.

Window box gardening is possible, also. Parsley, chives, thyme and oregano are great additions of fresh greens to your diet.

    I have been trying to grow a hanging wire basket of peat moss and potting mix into a ‘lettuce ball,’ but having mixed success.  There was a beautiful one demonstrated in Sunset Magazine, but I lost the copy and must be doing something wrong with the potting mix as I have only gotten a few plants to survive transplant into the ball.  You are supposed to be able to grow several varieties of cool weather lettuce and clip off only those you need from day to day as they continue to mature.     
heddiecalifornia – at 14:41
 Oh, sprouts!! 
    I’ve done well with mung bean sprouts (the kind you get in Chinese Food, available at Chinese grocery stores) 

    Best way I have sprouted them is to put them into cut down plastic milk jugs with a few holes punched around the sides in the bottom for drainage, and keep them in the dark — in the dishwasher, between loads, where it is dark and can be damp and warm after a load of dishes. 

    Of course, if power is off, it will only be dark and damp.  But its a handy close by good place to sprout lots of things.  

    Barley seed also makes a nice green sprout  
Wolf – at 14:46

Medical Maven Thank you. Guess I needed a bit of reinforcement on that. Feel the same way. Years ago I had some schmuck shoot my storm door out with a pellet gun. Was able to (somewhat) mark the trajectory. Next weekend while said trajectory-area was partying in the backyard, I cleaned my shotgun on the porch. Not long after that I dropped by and shared my corn, tomatoes and etc. Never again had a problem with ‘em. It’s a new crowd out there now, tho. I’ve been here more than 20 years. Scary bunch.

Milo – at 14:47

Ordinary lentils sprout pretty well too. Radish and broccoli sprouts are the best. I’ve never tried barley or wheat, but I’m planning to experiment with it.

Wolf – at 14:58

Me too, Milo. Heddie - Have little grow-bags for greens - but once the heat sets in, fuggediboutit. Great in spring and fall tho. Familiar with both French intensive and Square Foot - have sacrified the sunlight required for fruit growing, however. Amazing response. Do hope that this thread inspires those who feel it’s hopeless in an apartment or smallspace. Even tossing in a bit of homegrown chard and chives into some ramen noodles is a spirit lifter as well as adding some much needed nutrition!

heddiecalifornia – at 15:08

Escargot, anyone?

    Possible protein source — local snails!  Some time back Sunset Magazine ran an article about using your garden snails as food.  Apparently, the snails rampant in California were introduced in the late 1800′s by a fellow from France who brought them over, thinking they would be a great delicacy here.  They never caught on as food.  However, they are all over, major pests.  
     Anyhow, it was suggested to find them in your pesticide free garden; put them in a little ‘snail corral’ and enclosure of some sort, like a large coffee can with holes in the top; put in some corn meal  for them to eat, with a little water dish.  After several days, they should be pretty much purged of anything bad, and a little bigger and fatter. Put them in a new clean enclosure for a while, till they empty themselves completely.  Then they are ready to cook. 
      I don’t recall how they were cooked, except that it involved boiling water, butter, garlic and salt.  
       I have never tried it, as my neighbor uses ‘deadline’ and snail bait, and I would hate to find out that some have ‘come over’ after snacking at the neighbors.  
Wolf – at 15:32

Thanks, all. And please keep in mind those of us of minimal means. Not a situation of which generator to buy, or how to build a solar power system. I see too few posts from those who are just plain broke. We deserve a chance, too. You never know, we might be able to help YOU one day.

FrenchieGirlat 16:19

Wolf – at 13:41 - There’s a thread devoted to Guinea pigs as food, vs. rabbits, on Curevents Eat Guinea Pigs. They also discuss fish (trout) so for proteins, you might have a fish tank with trouts. If you eat one a week, for 12 weeks is 12 trouts per person. And you can crowd them like they do in restaurants, so not much room would be needed, just water and an oxygen pump (could be run on batteries). There’s a suggestion that you may not have enough fat in the trout for nutrition purposes (same for rabbit), but you can always cook it in oil. It probably would turn out less expensive to keep trout than guinea pigs, however you might have potential problems with illnesses or reproduction with fish, that you’re unlikely to have with guinea-pigs. In France, during WWII, my Dad ate mice, that he caught, not bred. Nowadays, you probably would be better off breeding them than catching potential BF vectors. In 1870, during the siege of Paris, they ate rats.

Come to think of it, you could have hamsters - have them run all night long in their play wheels to recharge the batteries of the fish oxygen pump :-D

FrenchieGirlat 16:23

heddiecalifornia – at 15:08 - escargots (snails). You won’t have me eat those, yuk!

Wolf – at 16:26

Frenchiegirl: Seriously considered the South American alternative to rabbit! As I recall from earlier readings on the subject, no cages were even necessary in ‘the old days’ (although in my house with my killer cats it would be a must) A friend had a couple as pets and it got out of hand in rather short order. Thanks for the link!

FrenchieGirlat 16:29

Wolf – at 15:32 I see too few posts from those who are just plain broke. We deserve a chance, too. You never know, we might be able to help YOU one day. At one point, before I knew all I do now on food “procurement”, I was so poor and hungry I made soup with lawn grass and just a little flour. It tasted awful but I am still alive and now contributing on FW :-)

Wolf – at 16:43

Wolf – at 15:32 I see too few posts from those who are just plain broke. We deserve a chance, too. You never know, we might be able to help YOU one day.

Frenchiegirl: And so you have:)

heddiecalifornia – at 22:31

Frenchiegirl:

   Hey!  I thought that escargot was a French delicacy.  Well, you aren’t really missing much — I had them once a very long time ago, when I was young and beautiful and boyfriends took me to famously expensive restaurants ---  as I recall they were kind of chewy like little warm rubber pencil erasures, coated with a most delicious butter and garlic sauce.    

However, I like pickled herring better. Also Sonoma Garlic stuffed green olives.

Wolf: Go for the rabbits if you need meat. The Julia Child books had a receipe for them that was supposed to be quite good. A Portuguese woman that has lived many years on my mother’s street raised rabbits for food for her large family of boys. They are very quiet, but you have to keep them cool, and dogs will try to get at them.

anonymous – at 22:36

I ordered more canned meat today. How do you kill animals humanly? I’m a city girl.

TCatat 23:30

Oh, sprouts, my favorite topic. They are super easy to grow, cheap and nutritious. And Wolf, you do not have to keep your seeds in the crisper, any cool place will do.

Tons of information on this site: http://www.sproutpeople.com

I am in Canada and order my sprouts here: http://www.sprouting.com - my favorites are Ancient Eastern Blend, Crunchy Bean Mix, Sandwich Booster and Broccoli Brassica Blend.

Interesting article about sprouts

SaddleTrampat 23:40

Heddiecalifornia: Not only dogs go after rabbits, but screw worms and rats, in particular. The caging and housing of rabbits is a really BIG deal because the rats will get under the cages and eat the legs off the babies or just chomp the whole thing till it gets dragged through the wires. Nasty, nasty. And keeping rats under control is a full time job. To have enough meat rabbits to feed a family of four, you probably need around six or eight does and at least one buck. That’s a lot of spilled feed and rabbit droppings.

Speaking of droppings…you do know that rabbits chew their cud, dont you? Every few poop pellets one is produced that isnt completely digested, so the rabbit snarfs it up and eats it again.

Screw worms are the larvae of a certain type of fly. It lands on the rabbit, lays an egg which hatches out into a magget which then burrows into the rabbit’s skin. They look like black blisters - until you poke them and they move! I’ve managed to pull them out with a tweaser, but that isnt always successful. Alcohol works sometimes, too, but it hurts so the rabbit doesnt like it much. For a horse or cow, you take a soft drink bottle, put the open end over the worm hole and hit the bottom of the bottle HARD with the flat of your hand. That usually pops the screw worm out, sort of like popping a zit.

City girl: How you kill and butcher a meat animal depends on the animal - mostly how big it is and how big you are in relation to it. For rabbits, probably the most common way I’ve seen it done is to hold it upside down by its hind legs and hit it in the head with a piece of rebar or some other club-like thing. One good crack and they are generally dead, but your aim has to be straight and true. If they wiggle, it’s easy to miss. You dont want to have to go around smacking them again and again. (For the really squeemish, you can always shoot them in the head with a small calibre gun, but most folks think that’s too expensive and a waste of bullets.)

Then they are hung upside on a board with nails through their hind legs, gutted and the heads cut off. Then the feet, then they’re skinned and cut up. I think it’s easier to cut them up after skinning if the carcass is a little bit frozen.

It’s all pretty bloody and unless you have the right breed for butchering, the skins can be very hard to remove. Not for the faint of heart.

I’ve raised rabbits, butchered and skinned them, and hated every minute of it. Even taking care of rabbits is a smelly, yucky, bending-over-so-your- back-always-hurts kind of job. And the bucks can be very mean (one good kick and they can lay your arm or belly open with the claws on their hind legs), and some of the does even cannibalize their young.

I much prefer to get them nicely cooked, in jars, from my sister.

If you want to know how larger animals are butchered, let me know. Been there. Done that, too. And probably good stuff to know.

Ange D – at 23:51

This is a charming thread, absolutely charming . . . .

(running for the hills at the thought of eating guinea pigs . . . .)

I cannot wait to go to bed and dream about SCREW WORMS????? (bawk!)

Bronco Bill – at 23:53

heddiecalifornia – at 22:31 --- Escargot! A delicacy I could eat over and over. But only because I LOVE garlic and butter!!

Anon_451 – at 23:55

Wolf – at 15:32 I see too few posts from those who are just plain broke. We deserve a chance, too. You never know, we might be able to help YOU one day

Go to the page about rice and beans. Rice is sold at Sam’s club for about $5.00 per 25 pound bag. At one cup of rice per person, that will give you about 108 servings. Add a little bit of beans and you have a filling meal. Boring but it is food. Rice frozen and then sealed in storage bags with O2 absorbors or vacume sealed will last for up 5 years with no problem. Use that as your base and then add to it. Pasta, (which is also cheap) can also be put up in the same way and last about the same time. A meat sauce in a jar can be added to give a better taste. Now you have two cheap base meals. Any dried soup mix is also quit cheap and would be a break from the rice and beans, Thats three, now add some Ramon into the mix About $5.00 for a case of 48 and now you have a real mix of things. Being real carfull you could set up 2 people for at least a month for under $50.00. It would mean you would have to shop smart and keep the rice as the main stay, but it can be done.

Best of luck to you wolf.

Bronco Bill – at 23:56

Ange D – at 23:51 --- Wait ‘til you hear about deep fried grasshoppers and June Bug soup!! lol!! ;-)

28 August 2006

bird-dog – at 00:03

Regarding snails, forty years ago I used to collect perriwinkles along the shore(Me.), rinse them off a bit with salt water, steam them for a few minutes in salt water, then eat them with or without butter. Tasty! Of course I also dug for and ate raw or steamed clams, and had a couple of lobster traps. Thank goodness I can resort to the ocean when I have a craving for fresh protein if/when…

TCat - thanks for the links/info on sprouts! Sprouts are even good on peanutbutter and jelly sandwiches.

heddiecalifornia – at 22:31 “They are very quiet…” But they all, esp. rabbits, scream and scream when hurt! No thanks. ;-)

SaddleTrampat 00:05

Wolf: you can get the O2 absorbers from www.honeyvillegrain.com - 100 for about $5.00 with about $5 for shipping. It takes one for a #10 can (like a large coffee can) or 4 for a 2-gallon paint can size.

Ange D – at 00:08

BB at 23:56---now I ask you . . . could you eat some little kid’s GUINEA PIG???????? Or Thumper?????

But, I tell you plain, dear BB, those Screw Worms got real visual and sensory on this thread and I think I will declare that the summer is over with and it’s about time to trudge on down the old prep path to freedom from which creepy crawly to eat. I see beans in our future here. Lots of beans with no little quizzical hamster faces on them.

Get thee back to closing threads and off the subject of fried grasshoppers.

Ange D – at 00:09

Whoa! Screaming rabbits . . . .

SaddleTrampat 00:10

Bird-dog: you’re right about the rabbits. They do scream and not just when they are hurt. They scream when they are frightened and when they fight each other (if the doe isnt interested in the buck, she will try to beat the crap out of him).

I’d forgotten about the screaming….

By now, Im sure everyone is rushing out to buy breeder bunnies. <g>

BirdGuanoat 00:19

Luckily I’m hiking distance to the Pacific ocean, and I’ve got the dreaded gill net in storage ready to use if/when sport fishing regulations are a thing of the past.

I doubt I will want for protein, although I will look pretty funny in a full respirator and bunny suit fishing.

I’ve got enough food storage (mostly freeze dry) for the entire family to be locked-down self-sufficient for 18 months.

I can’t tell you what a great feeling that is.

Most of the long-term survival worries were covered pre Y2K rollover.

Try searching google or the way-back machine for archives of those very interesting Usenet discussions.

Most of this discussion parallels those.

It really ALL depends on the power grid staying up and functional.

Electricity is the absolute KEY to our current level of civilization.

seacoast – at 00:29

Wolf - Of course the rice and beans combo is a complete protein when mixed, but, you can also mix different kinds of pasta with beans for a complete protein. The Italians have a famous dish called ‘pasta figioli’ or something like that and it is simply beans and pasta and boy it is delish…and CHEAP. I also eat black beans mixed with salsa or taco sauce and its a meal. Sometimes I mix with cottage cheese and it is good. Don’t forget hummus. If you make it yourself it cost about 75 cents to make and it is better than store bought AND it is good for you.

Bronco Bill – at 00:49

Ange D – at 00:08 --- :-) Consideriing my frustration level today at trying to sell my house, and listening to 7 large-breed dogs right next door bark all day long…..yep! I could… (3 St. Bernards, 2 Neopolitan Mastiffs, and two Great Danes…oh, and one ankle-biter Pomeranian)…

BB goes back to his kitchen, looking for more threads to eat…er, close…

seacoast – at 01:10

BirdGuano - I am within spitting distance to the Atlantic Ocean and I too am planning on digging clams, oysters and harvesting mussels. The problem with that is, you can’t eat it all the time because it will give even the locals, who eat from the sea regularly, diarrhea. Fishing isn’t always easy, it depends on what is running, blue fish and bass can be caught right from the shore but that is only certain times during the year. Mainly, you have to go out in open ocean to catch anything on any given day. Maybe we could get some lobster traps and put them in the bay where it isn’t so scary. I think I have been watching the “Deadliest Catch” for too long!

I have spent the weekend ordering more of everything because I think we are going to SIP longer and it is looking like we can’t count on anything being normal after each wave, or for quite a while. I never prepped for Y2K, so I have started at square one. We are going to buy a big, “quiet” generator tomorrow and a woodburning stove insert in our fireplace. We lost electricity for a few days last winter and we burned a tremendous amount of wood, very inefficent. I have bought every otc med I can think that we might need for an extended length of time.

My eyes are crossing and I don’t know why I am not in bed, so it is off to bed for me….

LEG – at 01:40

Speaking of stocking meds, one suggestion I was given (if you can believe it) from my nurse practitioner was that it might be easier to obtain antibiotics for farm animals than humans (no prescription required here in MO anyway). I’d love some professional input ref the dosage if this is feasible. My sister has treated (I mean injected) her farm animals for years herself (upon the instruction of the local vet as needed) and has animal rescue experience as well, so that is a help in administration if we had the appropriate dosage conversion and it is applicable.

Oremus – at 02:34

Do you think they’ll believe I have a diabetic cow?

FrenchieGirlat 05:36

Bronco Bill – at 23:56 - When I was little, my grandma in Madagascar used to send us sweets containing grasshoppers. You can also cook them as a savoury brochette.

Oremus – at 02:34 - If US vet pharmacies carry insulin, why not? I used to give insulin shots to my dog.

Citygirl – at 08:06

I think I’ll skip thumper and by more meat. I prefer already packaged meat.

Watching in Texas – at 08:40

wolf - in addition to rice, beans, pasta, dried soup mixes (and a few other very good ideas that I now forget,but they are posted above), don’t forget cheap staples like oatmeal, or if you don’t like oats, check out the bagged cereals. They are generally cheaper than the boxed cereals. Also, check your local stores for sales on canned veggies and fruit - these last a long time and I have found some veggies - 4 cans for $1 and fruit 2 cans for $1. I don’t know where you are located, but here we have Walgreens and they have packages of little sandwich cookies for $1. 6 cookies to a pack and 8 packs to a package for $1 goes a long way. They also have a wafer type cookie - again a pack for $1. I have also found packages of peanut butter crackers, a large variety pack with cheese crackers, regular crackers, wheat crackers, etc., and it was really cheap. Dry cereal or oatmeal for breakfast, a can of fruit or applesauce, with peanut butter crackers, makes a good (and cheap) lunch, and then that rice and beans for dinner won’t be so bad. And, hey, you’re not alone - many of us are trying to prepare with limited funds!

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 08:46

SaddleTramp – at 14:09 (concerning raising rabbits) Dont just hop into the project. This one requires some real research.

Funny one!

Rabbit screams…..one of the books on the Oprah read list one year was “When Rabbit Howls” about a little girl who was so badly abused by her father, that she split into several different personalities. She described hearing the rabbits screaming as they were killed and related her physical pain to it — it chilled me to the bone just reading about it.

I think it’ll be easier to go vegetarian & raise beans for protein…..maybe for those of us who have literally run out of ground space for gardening, whether in the ground or in boxes or planters or whatever, can use some of the roof space on our houses for some shallow plantings that we can water often!

Hillbilly Bill – at 09:07

I have raised rabbits, butchered them, and eaten the meat. The entire process starting with building suitable cages, buying feed, harvesting grass (yes they need both feed and grasses), and keeping them healthy was a time consuming, expensive endeavor. It reminded me of my grandfather who told me once that after many years of raising chickens he finally got the cost of a dozen eggs down to $2.

If I had to, I would butcher and eat a rabbit, but I would really rather leave that experience in the past. I’ve also done chickens and pigs, and to be perfectly honest, I prefer to receive meat in tidy white paper packages.

My plan is to start converting some of those buckets of dry beans in my storage to canning jars of cooked beans with a square of salt pork inside. Not only will they require much less fuel to cook when we eat them, but home canned foods are supposedly protected from seizure.

Watching in Texas – at 09:08

HB - seizure??

Hillbilly Bill – at 09:12

Watching in Texas – at 09:08

Yes, that handy Executive Order (I think) that allows TPTB to “reallocate” supplies in the case of an emergency. Essentially those in power can come into your home and take whatever you have in the way of food, water, fuel, etc. and distribute it where they see fit.

Because of the possibility of improper canning methods, home canned foods are not to be taken.

Hillbilly Bill – at 09:15

Watching in Texas – at 09:08

Bear in mind that the state seal of WV bears the motto: “Montani Semper Liberi” , Mountaineers are always free. In most parts of the state we would take a dim view of the “government” reallocating resources. I’m sure that holds true for some areas in Texas also.

Watching in Texas – at 09:17

Ah, yes, now I remember….we had a lively thread on that issue on Fluwiki number 1 - I seem to recall something about “they can have my rice and beans when they pry them out of my cold, dead fingers”!

Watching in Texas – at 09:23

HB at 9:15 (I think our posts crossed) - yep, I think the important thing to remember when dealing with a goodly number of Texans is that: we used to be an independent country! And weirdly enough, I’ve talked to folks who still think that way. As one old-timer I spoke with put it “we don’t cotton to them better-offs in DC tellin us how to do things”. If TSHTF, that guy just might get his wish - of course, all potential help and aid will disappear too…

Hillbilly Bill – at 09:28

WIT: My sister used to work for the OMB and many years ago there was a snowstorm that paralayzed the D.C. area for 3 days. Practically every office of government was shut down. When she came home for a visit and talked about how the government was completely shut down, it really pissed her off when I said we didn’t even notice a ripple of effect here…

DoubleDat 09:32

I think in an extreme scenario we would end up primarily vegetarian with occassional infusions of meat/dairy protein from hunting/gathering efforts and/or trading with neighbors. We have a large section of property that I would clear of the current rhodies/lilacs/hydrangeas etc that inhabit it … and plant a much larger garden then our current one. The new sections would be for corn and dry beans to add to the veggies from our regular garden. We keep corn and dry bean seeds on hand (buying fresh heirloom seed each year) - just in case. We also have dried dairy (milk, eggs, and cheese) and TVP in our long term storage that if used judiciously could stretch into a very long time for a supplemental protein source. In addition, our neighboring watershed area has wild rabbits that we would likely set snares or deadfall traps for. We also live close to the Puget Sound and could gather shellfish (barring red tides etc). We have a rainwater catchment system for a backup water supply. Requires filtering and purifying - but better than going thirsty! We also have some streams within hiking distance that we could haul water from - but it is not my first fall back position because of the logistics (water is very heavy and distance). I like to have plan A, plan B, and if possible a Plan C and more!

Watching in Texas – at 09:37

DoubleD - well thought out plans indeed! We don’t have a lot of room for gardening, BUT, I did purchase some seeds this year - we could certainly convert lawn to garden if need be.

preppiechick – at 09:51

‘’Hillbilly Bill – at 09:15

Watching in Texas – at 09:08

Bear in mind that the state seal of WV bears the motto: “Montani Semper Liberi” , Mountaineers are always free. In most parts of the state we would take a dim view of the “government” reallocating resources. I’m sure that holds true for some areas in Texas also.’‘

I grew up in NH- their motto is the best,

Live Free or Die

(I think we fw’s should steal it!!)

Watching in Texas – at 10:01

preppiechick - I like it!!!

preppiechick – at 11:24

WIT:

I know you fellow Texans are our compadres!

Bronco Bill – at 11:45

Yeah, well, CAs motto is Eureka!

Means “I found it! But I can’t afford it”

Bronco Bill – at 11:46

I know, I know…off topic. Sorry

History Lover – at 12:05

Watching in Texas @ 9:23 - I’m a little late to this discussion, but I couldn’t help adding something. When I was growing up, I remember my aunts, uncles and grandmothers always referring to anyone north of the Panhandle as a “Yankee.” As in, “he’s pretty nice for a Yankee.” I think a lot of folks still think that way.

Olymom – at 12:43

This thread is helping me focus on the do-able. We have a big grassy lot and in the back of my mind I’ve been thinking “We could have a dairy cow” for milk, cheese, yogurt — but I do know that cows can kick viciously, can stomp a dog to death, need to be milked DAILY and what little I know about milk pasteurization makes me cringe (heating five gallons of milk a day over a camping stove . . .ugh). Plus the need to keep everything very clean.

I think I’ll go order some more powdered milk from Honeyville . . .

Poppy – at 12:58
Poppy – at 13:01

I don’t know why but when I tried to post some advice for Wolf about raising rabbits it was blocked by the site administrator. I would welcome an explaination since nothing I posted should have been a problem.

SaddleTrampat 13:03

If anyone is seriously thinking about growing your own milk, I strongly suggest getting a dairy goat. You or someone you know well (and is willing to share) will also have to have a buck goat because does only give milk when they are pregnant or have kidded. Male goats, esp. their urine, smell bad. I dont mind them, but a lot of folks do, and the smell will permeate your milk so the buck and does have to be kept separate. My sister “Heidi” keeps the girls and I keep the boys at my place.

Other than that, dairy goats are great to have. They are easy to handle (esp. if you get one from a 4H kid), smart enough to be decent pets, easily trained to stand for milking, give about a gallon of 6 percent butterfat, naturally homogenized, milk a day. If you keep your goats healthy and tested for tuberculosis (or have a closed herd like ours), you dont need to pasteurize the milk, although that is very easy to do. Cleaning a bucket and the stuff for straining the milk isnt much of a chore (since they are small enough to fit in a sink), feed and vet supplies are relatively inexpensive, and the size of the animals you butcher (unneeded bucks or culled does) makes the work of skinning and cutting up the meat worthwhile.

I love my goats. I have purebred LaManchas (no ears) and a couple of LaManchas crossbred with an Alpine breed. Good milkers, good mothers, and my buck, “Spot,” is a sweetheart who thinks he’s a big dog.

As always when buying livestock, be sure to get the best quality (not necessarily show quality) that you can afford, with the emphasis on milk production and mothering ability. If you arent experienced at handling livestock, be sure to put a premium on kind, manageable temperaments, too. Again, purchasing a kid’s 4H project will help in that regard.

You can also get milk-meat goat crosses. That way, your culls are even bigger and have more meat, but you wont get quite as much milk from them. If you handraise the babies on bottles, you usually end up with more milk for the table, but we dont do that and still have plenty for 3 households.

Hillbilly Bill – at 13:19

For anybody who has never raised any livestock, I strongly suggest you gain some experience from someone who is currently raising what you are interested in having. Even small animals like rabbits require you to tend them EVERY single day. The only way people who raise livestock get to take even the briefest of vacations is to have a nearby farmer tend their stock while they are gone. It is not for everybody. If you think wading through waist deep snow to feed hay to cattle sounds unattractive, imagine having the regular flu and still having to do that. Been there, done that, didn’t want a t-shirt to remind me of it.

Carrey in VA – at 13:19

Olymom – at 12:43

Wouldn’t really need to pasteurize it. Don’t know if I could get used to the taste of raw milk or not though. BLECH

Bill,

You said you were canning up your beans with salt pork now. I’ve thought of doing that too (we have some country ham in the freezer) Do you cook the beans first? I canned up 7qts of navybeans and ham hock after cooking it and after processing, the beans were mush. I wonder if you could soak them over night then can without cooking or if they would swell too much and burst the jars.

OKbirdwatcherat 13:46

HBB at 13:19 - My brother, a life-long farmer/rancher raised rabbits some years back looking to supplement the farm income. Even with much experience in raising/caring for livestock, it was more than he cared to handle. For those wanting to get into it for survival purposes, good luck. I say, stock up on those canned goods while you can!

Poppy – at 14:07

Look up the book “Barnyard in Your Backyard” by Gail Damerow It’s a lage paperback priced at about $25.

I first saw it at my public library and found it full of useful information.

Barnyard in Your Backyard offers expert advice on raising: chickens, geese, ducks, rabbits, goats, sheep, and dairy cows. Each chapter focuses on a different animal, discussing the pros and cons of raising the animal, housing and land requirements, feeding guidelines, health concerns, and a schedule for routine care. It includes guidelines for processing barnyard products such as milk, wool, and eggs. It contains easy-to-use checklists and charts, and a seasonal care calendar.

As others have pointed out raising farm animals is not for everyone, they require daily care no matter what. I do raise show rabbits and we have raised our own beef in the past so I know something of the costs and personal dedication involved.

Hillbilly Bill – at 14:16

Carrey in VA – at 13:19

After some experimenaion with chili, my plan is to soak the beans overnight and then cook them for about 30 minutes to make sure they are good and hot before packing them into jars. My canner only holds 7 quarts, so I will more than likely do a big pot of beans with a smoked ham hock and then drop a 1″ or so square of salt pork in each jar before adding the beans. I hope to put aside 7 quarts each time we have a pot of beans this fall.

SaddleTrampat 16:29

Re livestock raising: I second the suggestion to hook up with someone who already knows what they are doing. Probably, they will try to talk you out of it. IMO, if you are really inexperienced, take their advice. A pandemic is not a good time for practice or trial and error.

“Heidi” is going on vacation next week. I get to go over to her farm, take care of the goats, the dogs, the cats, and the dozen or so horses while she is gone. This in addition to my own. Twice a day every day. I can remember many times that I did animal chores when I was so sick I could hardly stand and the few days I’ve been hospitalized in the last 30 years were major problems getting people to cover for me because we didnt live anywhere near other family members.

My husband and I havent had a vacation since we took the kids to Disney World in 1994. Day trips are about the best we can do - leave in the AM after the chores are done and be home by dark to do it all over again.

Ange D – at 17:34

Carrey in VA – at 13:19 You said: “Wouldn’t really need to pasteurize it. Don’t know if I could get used to the taste of raw milk or not though. BLECH”

It is important to pasteurize raw milk. I think it is either meningitis or encephalitis, but . . .one of those . . . that you can get from raw milk. Not a pleasant thought.

Worldman – at 17:35

I will second the advice on the HUGE commitment raising farm animals can be. We have raised chickens and goats. We loved both. We also raise a rather larger garden. I have three kids, so the labor factor is there. They all help with the morning and evening animal chores, and when its garden season, they must each weed three rows before they can sit down for breakfast. (Food motivates)

For us, the chickens were the easiest to raise. We would order about 200 chicks around the beginning of spring, and by June or July, they are ready to butcher. We then can (glass jars) about ¾ of them and we take the rest to a local processor who cleans and vacuum wraps them as whole roasters. (These we place into the freezer) We had about 15 layers for fresh eggs. We sort of free ranged them so the management was pretty easy.

Goats, we love, love, love having goats. We had alpines. Three goats gave us milk to give away. A family of five could probably have enough milk with one or two. We pasteurized our milk. A very simple process of just bringing the milk up to 165F as fast as possible, then taking it off and cooling it as fast as possible.

No bucks on our property. We took our girls out to be bred. We just did not like what it did to the milk.

Nothing better then an ice cold glass of goats milk, with a slice of freshly made bread covered in peanut butter. Yummy!!!!

We live in Texas now, so we are setting up our property to raise boar goats. My wife wants an alpine to milk, but I am concerned about the poor quality hay down here.

We will also raise rabbits, probably New Zealand’s and chickens (subject to BF outbreak) Our new garden spot will be ready next spring and we should be able to raise all of our produce.

Its easy for us, cause we enjoy it. We like this lifestyle. My kids all know how to butcher, (yes the girls to) and we understand the natural cycle of life and our calling to be responsible stewards of the resources’ that have been given to us.

Having said that, if you grew up in the city or cant handle hot sweaty work, blood and feathers, forget it, go buy more canned goods. You will save your relationship.

Take care,

OKbirdwatcherat 18:36

Ange D at 17:34 -

Oops! I drank nothing but unpasteurized raw milk for the first 17 years of my life. I grew up on a Grade A dairy farm and our milk came straight out of the tank. Maybe I was just lucky - but I’m still here to tell about it and so far, no serious illness of any kind. My milk these days, however, comes in nice little plastic jugs from the grocery store:)

OKbirdwatcherat 18:46

Worldman - Your post brings back memories of watching my maternal grandmother “dress” chickens in the summertime. Hens were put in the freezer for the most delicious chicken and noodles I have ever eaten and fryers were put in the freezer for good ol’ fried chicken. I have never tasted chicken from a store that could even hope to come close to that taste. It is to “die for”. Sadly, I’m too much of a girly-girl to ever be able to butcher chickens. My loss :(

Carrey in VA – at 18:55

Ange D – at 17:34

“It is important to pasteurize raw milk. I think it is either meningitis or encephalitis, but . . .one of those . . . that you can get from raw milk. Not a pleasant thought. “

If ya don’t know where you milk is coming from, then yes it should be pasteurized. My husbands family had milk cows and drank raw milk, cream, and buttermilk till the kids were grown and not there to do the milking anymore.

Grace RN – at 18:55

eughh i just read about the satins..sorry guys- no vegan here, but I like meat the way any real city slicker does-cooked and in a take out bag. I can beat an egg to death and drink canned milk, but to look a bunny in the eye and then….nada-not for me. And I know I’m being 2 faced about this!!!

DH hunts -I’ll cook venison and rabbit once someone else does the icky stuff…better get more canned stuff…living off the land to me is eating out at each place until you’ve tried them all…..

Bronco Bill – at 18:59

Grace RN – at 18:55 --- Sounds like my DW!!! Her idea of “primitive camping” is staying on the first floor of the Holiday Inn!! LOL!!!

Carrey in VA – at 19:02

Grace RN – at 18:55

I’m with you. The in-laws kill a beef every winter and we go down and help process and wrap it. That part doesn’t bother me cause its already killed, gutted, skined and quartered by the time we get there.

I’m so thankful every year not to be there for the first part.

SaddleTrampat 19:27

Ange: There is nothing inherently wrong with drinking raw milk. You just have to take proper veterinary care of your animals. If you are getting milk direct from a producer, then you need to be sure that the farmer knows what she is doing AND religiously does it. If she doesnt, then buy from someone else, dont rely on pasteurization.

The disease you get from raw milk is tuberculosis, but if the cow (or goat) isnt infected, you wont be either, which is why you test the herd and then “close” the herd (basically quarantine them). When you get a new animal, you test it and then put it into a separate quarantine for 2–4 weeks to make sure that it doesnt have anything else. There are other diseases (like clostridium infection) that are dangerous to the goats. Many herds are “certified free” of those disases because the herds were tested and kept free for generations. When you buy a milk goat from one of these herds you generally pay a premium for it, but it’s worth it in the long run.

Medical Maven – at 19:37

I have mentioned this before, but will again because this strategy is such a huge net gain in meat reserves in one fell swoop. If the panflu begins in winter and you can store meat in a shed or your garage without worry of spoilage, immediately get your rifle (even a .22 rifle would do) and shoot your suburban bambi in the head and drag his carcass into your work area and hang him by his back hooves and dress him out. Go on-line if you need instructions on cleaning a deer. It is isn’t that difficult. And even if spoilage is a concern, eat what you can and give the rest to your pets until it gets too rotten for them.

Wolf – at 19:50

Thanks for all the input. I’m cured of rabbits! Had one as a pet when the kids were little - wouldn’t have minded killing that S.O.B. But sounds like the cost/benefit ratio isn’t where it needs to be. Have not ruled out guinea pigs ;) I worked on a small dairy farm as a youngster. The milk was pasteurized (had to be since farmer sold it) but not homogenized. Still can’t bring myself to drink that stuff in the plastic bottles. I adore goats and have always wanted one… or a dozen. My grandmother told stories of her ‘nanny-goat’ she had as a child that had the run of the house! Still trying to think longer-term tho. Have enough beans, rice, veggies, flour and TVP for a wave or three, if careful. Just not convinced we’re going to pull out of this thing as quickly as some think and am concerned about re-stocking supplies. Even should all hold up, I’m going to be clean outta money if I don’t work for even PART of ONE wave. I’ve got 2 jobs now and just barely make it.

OKbirdwatcherat 20:29

Wolf - I have those long-term concerns too. If needed, DH will hunt deer, rabbits and squirrels (yes, I said squirrels.) Ate wild rabbits, as well as tame, and squirrels many times as a child. The way my mother prepared them, they were delicious!

Wolf – at 21:10

Would never turn up my nose at squirrel! Or any wild game (shouldn’t be too hard to get ‘em here in the city either - tho I’m not sure they’ll be as healthy eating as I’d like). What I’m having to come to grips with is right out of Arlo’s Alice’s Restaurant - “There may not be much you can do at all. But there’s something you can try” I’ve stocked food, water filter, antivirals, 3 types of antibiotics. (We’ve rarely ever used ‘em, but just in case) I’ve put together rehydration kits (based on Woodson’s recipe) for ‘just add water’ solutions in case I’m too ill (or not here) to whip it up. My friends & family are pretty well convinced I’m nuts. I’m not entirely convinced I’m NOT nuts. I’ve always been fascinated by science. The internet was, to me, the hope of a new understanding of the world. I was connected via Hayes smartmodem before there were ISP’s and when webpages looked like term papers. Bad term papers. And one of the first places in my bookmarks was the CDC - which, I might add, was nearly unnegotiable - not sure if they’ve improved it; never go there anymore. I was primarily watching dengue and malaria in those days. Thought that it would be a prime indicator of global warming. In short order I became convinced it would be flu that hit us as a species - far sooner than the creep of the other, more exotic, diseases or for that matter global warming (at least directly). The ubiquitous, seemingly non-threatening, set-you-back a few days flu would be our undoing. Already killing far more people than most realize, a strain for which humans had no immunity was, to my mind, a certainty. When avian flu hit Hong Kong I was glued to the news, and truly believed that I was watching a simply heroic effort taking place. Though we’ve come to this, I still believe not enough credit is given to the efforts of those who fought to contain this pathogen in the early days. But I have to conclude that there may not be much that we can do at all. I still believe, tho, there’s something we can try.

SaddleTrampat 21:31

Medical Maven, Before you got out and shoot Bambi, check with the local veterinarians or better yet, your State vet and wildlife department, regarding the incidence of “wasting disease” in your local deer population.

For all intents and purposes, it’s the same as BSE, or “mad cow.” It has been identified in Elk out west and eastern whitetail deer. I think that it has come as far east as Virginia.

Im not sure that I would personally want to risk eating a deer anymore (and I LOVE venison) unless I was truly starving and had no choice. It really IS that well-distributed.

Wolf – at 21:47

SaddleTramp at 21:31 Agreed. Chronic wasting is pretty much everywhere. But I’ve still got veni-sausage in the freezer with no more concern than if I ate a hamburger. The limited testing that the gov’t was doing on beef has now been curtailed. Few (if any proven) cases of prion illness have come from deer. Not to say it CAN’T, just that given todays slaughterhouse practices, it’s more likely a cattle-borne disease. If you kill, dress and butcher your own deer (or have a trusted source who won’t mix batches) your danger is minimal, IMHO.

SaddleTrampat 22:00

Wolf: I agree that what the USDA is doing with cattle testing is nothing short of criminal. And home-butchered venison is probably as safe as hamburger, but Im not sure how safe that is anymore either. Since there is no way to visually tell if an animal is infected in the early, but still contagious, stages AND there is no way to get rid of it or protect yourself against it by proper hygiene or cooking, I think the risk is a bit higher than your estimate. Sheep arent much better. Scabies, the sheep version of BSE, has been around for hundreds of years.

I havent heard much about wasting disease in goats though, have you?

Wolf – at 22:09

Scabies (or scrapie isn’t it?) in sheep for sure. And, of course, the risk may be higher than I’ve stated. Just trying to put risk in some perspective. Chances of drowning in the ocean are far less than getting killed in a car wreck getting there, ya know? Have not heard of the problem in goats, tho there seems to me no known reason why they wouldn’t be susceptible to the the sheep form of the disease. However, the fact that neither of us have heard of it may indicate some natural resistance? Think we need an educated opinion on that - AND the deer/elk BDE question. Meantime, all the best SaddleTramp. Had an Arabian once which was the love of my life. What a horse!

Wolf – at 22:11

Read BSE… and he was a 14 1/2 hand giant of a jumper!

29 August 2006

bumping – at 00:29
SaddleTrampat 09:57

Wolf - you are absolutely right about the scrapie. I feel really dumb. Scabies is a skin parasite. That’s what happens when you hit the “over 40 slide!”

Re the jumping Arabs: I have a youngster in training now who cleared nearly 4 feet at 9 months, with all the style of an Olympian. We had to add another flight of boards to his paddock to keep him in. And I’ve had two other “motivated” stallions (on more than one occasion) go over a 5+ foot round pen to get to the mares. Pretty amazing for little guys of 14.2 to 15h. They are the greatest.

Medical Maven – at 10:45

Saddletramp at 21:31: I believe the incubation period for BSE in humans is decades. I am of the age (55) that even if I were so unlucky to slay a deer so infected, I would be coming down with it near the end of my term. We have not had cases reported in our area. It would have been all over the news, if that were the case.

It is the same scenario for mercury and PCBs in fish, etc. Unless you consume really high quantities on a week to week basis it is an inconsequential factor.

Now the younger the person is the more you have to worry. One might leave the game for the oldies, and the canned foods, etc. for the kids. (And the kids would probably be fine with that). The supplies would still be stretched appreciably in that manner.

Kathy in FL – at 11:10

There is a really good site called Urban Homesteading. They have a ton of great links and lots of “how to” instructions from people that actually live in that fashion.

30 August 2006

SaddleTrampat 08:58

Wolf: BSE can incubate for decades in both cattle and humans, but there are 150 cases in England that say that it isnt always that way. Those folks were dead within 24 months at the most and it wasnt pretty.

28 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:10

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Food Grade Plastic

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Food Grade Plastic

29 August 2006

Genoa – at 18:30

If an item is listed as “foodgrade, high impact plastic,” then should that be safe for long-term storage of food? That probably seems like a stupid question, but I’m looking at containers designed for animal feed. I can see using a few around the house for our food, but just wondering if I’m overlooking something? So I thought I’d ask the very knowledgable people here. Thanks.

Bronco Bill – at 18:43

As long as the container says on it “Foodgrade”, it should be safe. I’d keep the food in airtight plastic though…just to be sure.

Milo – at 18:54

Anyone who needs plastic buckets for food might try a local school or college. Call dining services and ask.

I got a bunch of 2-, 3-, and 5-gallon plastic buckets that way. I teach at the place I got mine, but you might try schools and colleges even if you don’t work there or send a kid there. Can’t hurt that much to call and ask. Some of my buckets smelled a little like dill pickles at first, but that faded.

AzNewBeat 19:27

you can also check with restaurants, most use butter/margarine in 5 gallon foodgrade buckets and throw them out when empty.

30 August 2006

deborah – at 00:51

After a little commonsense thinking on this subject, I am wondering why they need to be labeled foodgrade. When storing foods in these containers, one seals them first in mylar, so that would prevent the food from being in contact with the plastic. As long as nothing toxic has been in the buckets previously, I would think that clean, never used buckets and lids would be safe. Can someone explain to me why they wouldn’t be before I invest in some? I know buckets at Lowes are fairly cheap and I would rather spend less if possible.

LauraBat 06:39

deborah - yes if you have food grade mylar that would work. However, if you do not please make sure that the buckets and containers you use are food grade. Over time the chemicals and residues from non-food grade plastic can leach into the food. There’s no telling what that will do to your body down the road. Food-grade containers also don’t leach any chemical-type smells or tastes that could impact the food. Also, plastic milk containers degrade over time as well so do not store your water in those. If the bucket does not say it and you are interested, contact the manufacturer directly. Typically the workers at big-box stores don’t have a clue. I think others reaserached this and found the ones at Lowe’s are safe but not Home Depot - do a search of the forum and you should be able to find it. Bakeries, delis, etc. also often have buckets that theyey are throwing out and will give them to you for free or a few pennies.

28 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:09

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Bird Flu Vaccine Proves Successful

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Bird Flu Vaccine Proves Successful

SPAM

<<<<<<< Have to wait for pogge to delete this thread

28 October 2006

SPAM Thread Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:09

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Has Amantendine Been Ruled Out

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Has Amantendine Been Ruled Out

29 August 2006

Bottomline – at 07:28

Have all the current strains of H5N1 become resistant to the Amantedines?

anonymous – at 08:20

in a pandemic they probably will. When many people are treated with Amantanes, and the virus walks through several of these hosts, selection will create the resistance.


But, more realistically, assume that half of viruses are resistant and half of people are treated with Amantanes. After one virus-host-generation 2/3 are resistant, then 4/5, 8/9,16/17,… even when we discard that resistance can emerge within a patient.

Annoyed Max- Not mad yet – at 09:35

I believe I read that in at least one instance the resistance was already in the strain being examined. I brought this topic up up before and at that time there was still value to using amantadine. The problem is that for resistance to happen it only takes one of of three possible mutations for complete resistance. These mutations are highly volatile meaning that with any pressure they will surely happen. At least with tamiflu there is only one mutation that can cause resistance and its a much more stable part of the genome. Personally I do not put any stock in amantadine in a pandemic scenario. It might work in the immediate beginning but by the time you would likely get exposed to the pandemic it would be worthless. Find the other thread all this is discussed in detail.

anon_22 – at 18:55

This is a very rough delineation: Most of the strains in Asia including Indonesia are resistant. But the Qinghai strain and its offsprings in Europe and probably Africa are sensitive.

anon_22 – at 18:56

Webster and a few other scientists advocate combination therapy with oseltamivir and amantadine.

Bottomline – at 19:50

Yes - last i heard - months ago, H5N1 Qinghai was sensitive.

28 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:08

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Median Age Is14-everyones Concern

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Median Age Is14-everyones Concern

28 August 2006

seacoast – at 19:51

I feel like crying….

Tom DVM – at 23:22

seacoast. I’m with you but we are not beat yet. The virus can change significantly before it becomes pandemic and we can change significantly before it comes to get us.

It is going to be tough sledding but there actually is a lot we can do to lessen the effects.

preppiechick – at 23:29

Great (said sarcastically)…

My 14 dd is the only one (in my immediate family) who thinks I’m the total nutjob. She thinks that I am fanatical about her washing her hands, when she comes home (and if you saw my house you would know that the last thing I am is a germ-a-phobe - of course, the overflowing closets and basement of preps are another story…) Honestly, I didn’t know that 14 was the median age (sigh). She’s the first to get locked in.

29 August 2006

EnoughAlreadyat 00:45

the whole thread is the title? Where did this come from? Obviously, I have missed this somewhere/somehow.

anon_22 – at 01:33

The median age has actually crept up a little since early 06. You can find the information in the Epidemiology of WHO-confirmed human cases of avian A(H5N1) infection document, which covers up to June 2006.

Demographic characteristics

The median age of confirmed cases was 20 years. The age of cases ranged from 3 months to 75 years (n = 202). Half of the cases occurred among people aged <20 years; 90% occurred among those aged <40 years (Fig. 2). Among cases aged <10 years, 21 children were aged <5 years and 32 children were aged between 5 years and 9 years.”

“The overall case-fatality rate was 56%. The highest case fatality rate reported was 73%; this occurred among those aged 10–19 years (n = 49).”

I get a visceral reaction every time I think about this. This is also what I think about when I get fed up and want to quit, and then I can’t quit.

anon_22 – at 01:33

This shows the age and sex distribution in a more visual way.

enza – at 01:49

Oh dear, My last 2 are 12+ and 14+. DH and I will be on the frontlines, I worry about bringing it home…

anon_22 – at 01:56

See also this, Human Avian Influenza H5N1 by Age Group and Outcome, July 2006.

The <10 age group bars are misleading as each includes only 5-year age group, whereas the other bars are 10-year groups. Just so you know.

Olymom – at 02:06

anon-22, please know that I copied and sent your above information and graph to our local school superintendents and school boards. There are many of us learning from you and are spreading the word. Please don’t quit!

EnoughAlreadyat 02:16

Thank you, anon_22.

My understanding is that this is very similar to the 1918 pattern, with a slight drift downward of *typical age*. I am assuming the downward drift in age is the significant factor… the something new. Considering this is the age group with the strongest immune systems, this doesn’t surprise me. The question I have to this WHO finding is that these are from countries where children of this age group, especially the <10 group, followed by the teen group, are already at the greatest morbidity and mortality risks. According to the report, things are typical to the 1918 fatalities… ie, short/accute onset followed by rapid (~5 day) death rate. What I find striking is females seem to be outnumbering males in this age group. In the <10 group, females would typically have greatest chance for survival “except” in those countries that do not value female life. That is interesting, IMO. IIRC, this is different. Also, these represent only cases confirmed and reconfirmed in laboratories with samples provided only by patients who presented symptoms of illness. So, we aren’t sure about these statistics because of several unkown variables, as well as some known variables (like population demographics ).

WHO also saying peak flu season in Northern Hemisphere is during periods of cold temps, and expecting to see increase in “cases” late 2006 or 2007. Assuming they mean avian flu cases… in Northern Hemisphere. That is interesting…

pfwag – at 02:54

Not necessarily cold temps. There may be a correlation with decrease in Vitamin D. Google Vitamin D and influenza or Bird Flu

Tom DVM – at 08:24

pfwag. Trust me…this thing is way more virulent then any treatment…naturopathic or synthetic.

Kathy in FL – at 08:42

I’ve got five kids in the “danger zone” … which has always been my primary motivator. It is also the primary reason that our family prefers to SIP as long as is realistically possible. I know that I could do more for my community, but our first responsibility is to the children that we’ve been blessed with … once we can ascertain whether or not we will be putting them at risk, then and only then will we take a more active role in the community during an outbreak.

seacoast – at 08:56

Kathy- Everyone of your kids is our future, you are giving to the community by protecting them. IMO

nsthesia – at 09:20

anon_22:

The link to the WHO epidemiology data/graphs is a valuable one. Very succinct data. A great visual prompt.

I was wondering…do we still have our (FW’s) cumulative bar graph of confirmed fatalities somewhere? Seeing the WHO data, made me think that this summer, the bar graph will show a continued elevation instead of a plateau…BUT, that last WHO graph stopped too early to show it.

Do we still have one somewhere on this website?

LauraBat 09:23

Also keep in mind that in the countries hit hardest, children are often the primary keepers of poultry, etc. so they run some of the highest exposure rates, increasing their risks of catching it. While the 1918 example is truly frightening, and H5N1 does bear many similarities to that strain, there is no certainity that H5N1 will play out the same way if it goes H2H. However, just given the potential mortality rate from this thing, no matter who it hits hardest, I’m taking few chances and that’s why I’m prepping. What good is it to save my kids if their parents won’t be around to raise them?

Watching in Texas – at 09:29

I’ve got a 10yr old, a 13yr old, and a 17yr old. Large gulp. I agree with Kathy - these kids are my primary motivation.

Bluebonnet – at 10:05

One thing to keep in mind is that Indonesia and Vietnam have high levels of early childhood death rates.

The number one killer of children in third world countries is diarrhea caused by lack of clean water to drink. I’m not trying to be Pollyana here - but keep in mind that these children come from the poorest of the poor. Their mothers often have to deliver babies without adequate medical care.

A lot of these children are from rural villages and are children of subsistence farmers. They are malnourished, some of them lack even basic first aid care much less medical care, they lack clean water, clean homes, and healthy food and vitamins.

It breaks my heart to say these things but these children have major strikes against them, healthwise, without avian influenza being added to the mix.

These countries are working very hard to improve child death rates through higher immunization rates and better maternal medical care.

As mentioned above, some of these countries do not value females at all. What limited resources are available will go to male children. I’m not trying to provoke a debate on female/male equality - just simply stating the facts.

Two of my grandchildren are also in the age range. Yes, they will definitely SIP if/when the time comes. In the meantime, their mother is working hard on better nutrition, taking vitamins, hand washing and better personal hygiene. It’s a tough job but that’s what MOM is all about. She is also working hard to break some bad eating habits (yes, they are children of McDonalds) and getting them to eat more fruits and veggies in order to build better immune systems.

Desert Dan – at 11:29

Do you think there is any realation to the younger children playing with birds, close to teh grounds, and the 10–19 year olds doing the butchering and de-feathering jobs??

Just a thought?

Oremus – at 12:10

A statistic I read (maybe 6 months or more ago) stated that the H5N1 mortality rate on 15 year olds and younger, was 95%

Bluebonnet – at 12:17

Desert Dan - yes, I believe what you are stating is true.

After living in the third world for ten years, most children don’t go to school or if they do - they only go to fourth grade.

Children in these countries are put to work as soon as they can walk and carry. They are expected to help provide for their families. Most of the work they perform is tending cattle, poultry, and crops. They generally work from sunup to sundown.

Inner city children work in sometimes atrocious conditions. They often are used to polish metalware sold to tourists, to sew in sweatshops, to make shoes, etc. Oftentimes you will find them on the street selling fruits, gum, etc. Some of these children work at garbage dumps to pick usable items for their families to sell.

Not a very happy topic!

Milo – at 12:28

Does anyone know what percentage of the population in Indonesia, Thailand, Viet Nam, etc, is under 20? That might be a factor with these numbers. I’m not disagreeing with the figures, just trying to get all the relevant information.

I read in the NY Times the other day that in Zambia over 4 of every 10 people is under the age of 15. (Something close to half of the population is under 15 — hard to imagine.) In more developed nations, the number is about 2 of every 10. If TSHTF, countries like Zambia will be devastated if the median age stays at around 14.

The Times story was about child labor. Stunning. 9-year-olds working all day crushing rocks into gravel for cement.

anon_22 – at 12:58

nsthesia – at 09:20 anon_22:

I was wondering…do we still have our (FW’s) cumulative bar graph of confirmed fatalities somewhere?

It’s here on this Demographics page

enza – at 13:47

anon-22 thanks for finding this. It will be included in a presentation to our county school nurses and their assistants. When we get to the other side of this (panflu), we will discover that fluwiki would have been responsible for many lives saved.

Dennis in Colorado – at 14:11

Milo – at 12:28 Does anyone know what percentage of the population in Indonesia, Thailand, Viet Nam, etc, is under 20?

Indonesia: 0–14 years: 29%
Thailand: 0–14 years: 22%
Vietnam: 0–14 years: 27%

See https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/

Milo – at 14:28

Dennis in Colorado – at 14:11. Thanks! I’ll bookmark the factbook. Very handy.

FrenchieGirlat 16:46

Milo — at 14:11 - Here’s my post of yesterday on the IndonesiaOutbreakIII thread at 06:54. Thank you for all the efforts to produce a tracking means of the sick in Indonesia. When we get to the stage where you have found the best way to do it, could we have a look at the distribution of the ages of the victimes (dead or suspected)? It seems to me that the majority are very young children and babies, the other peak being young adults. Normal flu does that, but I thought H5N1 did not exhibit a preference for tender flesh, since no-one in the world has immunity. So, whenever, would anyone talented in stats please make a distribution graph to see if there’s any significant deviation? And venture explanations why that would be, that is if indeed my observation proves true? (And also maybe by sex/age?). Thank you.

There’s a good recap of all cases up to 28 August on Indonesia Outbreak Case Summaries. If you are able to calculate SDs and the like, I’m a taker (smile!) - as I’m sure others are too!

28 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:07

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Page last modified on October 28, 2006, at 08:07 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Really Ready Site

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Really Ready Site

28 August 2006

Petticoat Junction – at 19:16

Has anyone else heard of this new site, ReallyReady.org? (Sorry if it’s been discussed already; I ran an archive search but didn’t see anything.)

Apparently it’s a project of the Federation of American Scientists. Its stated purpose is to provide a corrective to the persistent errors, omissions, and obfuscations of the official Ready.gov site (ok, ‘obfuscation’ is my wording, but it’s such a nifty word!)

ReallyReady.org

Interesting, eh?

And, just because I was curious about who is behind this, the official website of the FAS is here

(Again, sorry if this has already been posted!)

Texas Rose – at 21:54

Hmmm…according to the TX HS site, which I reached via a link on the ReallyReady site, people need 2 quarts of water/day.

The FAS site is good for all sorts of research and news. I’ve had it bookmarked for a few years now.

On the fence but leaning – at 22:12

2 quarts is probably more for just straight drinking with no physical exertion. Basically hanging out waiting for the end. A gallon seems alot until you add in teethbrushing, spongebathing, and dishwashing.

On the fence but leaning – at 22:13

And Petit Coat Junction: Thanks for the site. Hadn’t seen that one before. Very informative.

29 August 2006

bump – at 11:21
bump – at 11:51

http://www.fas.org/reallyready/america/pandemic.html

28 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:07

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Page last modified on October 28, 2006, at 08:07 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Continuity of Natural Gas Service

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Continuity of Natural Gas Service

26 August 2006

MyKidsMomat 16:03

After reading many energy/power threads, I have tentatively concluded that the majority here think that natural gas service will more likely remain online, or at least be subject to less disruption, than public electric service. Thus, those of us with natural gas stoves could still prepare hot meals, boil water, etc. Rather than blindly rely on this conclusion,however,I would like to consider the realistic likelihood and potential problems with maintaining continuity in natural gas service. For example,I never thought about the need for electricity in distributing water to customers. Is there some similar hidden weak link in the provision of natural gas service that the average consumer may not realize?

Dreamweaver – at 16:24

I read somewhere, here or at CE, that said natural gas is pressurized by large electric pumps that have backup generators capable of going a week. I have notural gas & am not gambling on it to stay functioning.

Jumping Jack Flash – at 16:54

I just spoke with the plant manager of a 400 mega watt natural gas fired combustion turbine generating plant. His take was no electric power means no natural gas. The natural gas relies on electric power to keep it flowing through the pipes.

The natural gas company where I live would install gas line from the street to house, hook up appliances, etc for FREE.

Because I have little confidence in the electric power grid, and because my house WAS an all electric house, I chose to go to the expense of installing a 1,000 gallon propane tank ($3,000), gas line to house ($1,150), and cost to fill tank ($1700). BTW - look on DW and kids face when I told them vacation this was replaced with propane gas system (priceless).

However, given the fluctuation between summer and winter gas price (nearly double), I anticipate a 2 - 3 year payback on the system. So this money spent is not entirely out the window.

I have also stooped so low as to eye up my neighbors tanks and considered aquiring 500′ of line to run to their tank in the event they are dead from BF and my propane has run out. I think I should be good for 12 months. but after that who knows.

ANON-YYZ – at 18:32

Jumping Jack Flash – at 16:54

I agree on natural gas being undependable if power fails.

As I understand it, along the entire pipeline systems, there are pressure regulators that need electricity to run. If some of them fail, the whole system needs to be shut down for safety. Even with intermittent power failure, it will kill the system.

Instead of replacing natural gas, one option is to supplement it with propane, outdoor stove, cooking etc. For heating, it is possible to convert from natural gas to propane fireplace and have at least some heat. The natural gas furnace needs electricity to run the blowers so if power goes, it means immediately no heat.

Others have posted that if power goes, your natural gas range/oven may not work, and with no exhaust fans etc, it will be too dangerous to cook indoors. So think outdoor cooking in winter :-).

Average Concerned Mom – at 18:42

Hey MyKidsMom

From someone who is overwhelmed by all the possible scenarios — my current take is that, if we have more than (I’m guessing here) 2 week’s worth of loss of electricity (over a large geographical area), my lack of heat and cooking ability will be the LEAST of my concerns. I live in a major metro area and we will have no water after that point. (Depends how long the water plant can operate on generator, I guess….)

I currently have about 1 month’s worth of survival water stored up. After that my back up water source would be the Anacostia River…. (-: Plus a really really good filter….

Anyhow, I was quite worried about losing heat and cooking power until the water thing really put it into perspective. So I decided not to look into wood stoves, fuel tanks, etc. until I felt I had a better handle on the water. I do have a small propane camp stove, though, but if there isn’t any gas flowing, you can be darn sure I won’t be wasting any drinking water boiling rice on it!

Medical Maven – at 19:00

Passive cooling and heating systems are the way to go unless you reside north of Omaha (U.S.A.) or thereabouts. You won’t attract attention or entreaties if strangers or neighbors plainly see that you are without heat. I could see a lot of resentment building, if you are toasty and your neighbors are freezing to death with little food. You can give them food from afar, but you would have to risk exposure by bringing them in to your home. You bring them in, and you will have a toasty, little viral deathtrap.

When the natural gas peters out I will turn off the main cock coming into the house and proceed with my other plans. “What doesn’t kill you makes you stronger”. (Maybe THE mantra of the 21st century?)

Also, while touching on these issues I have rethought the idea of cooking during the first 6 weeks of a High CFR pandemic (and all of the smells and scents that would permeate your environs). I would rather waste what few frozen items I have than attract attention. It is canned food only and blinds drawn until the first stage of the winnowing process is completed. After that my camp stove and the dried beans and rice will come out.

BirdGuanoat 21:04

Here is a link to an EXTENSIVE discussion I had on this topic earlier in the year:

http://tinyurl.com/hu26k

Natural Gas.

Fergetaboutit !

BirdGuanoat 21:09

Medical Maven: Also, while touching on these issues I have rethought the idea of cooking during the first 6 weeks of a High CFR pandemic (and all of the smells and scents that would permeate your environs). I would rather waste what few frozen items I have than attract attention. It is canned food only and blinds drawn until the first stage of the winnowing process is completed. After that my camp stove and the dried beans and rice will come out.


Cooking odors can be controlled without much effort, with a little pre-planning and some inexpensive equipment.

Of course you can always do what I’m planning on doing.

Burning my “waste” in a burn trench at the same time food is cooking. :-)

They’ll only smell ONE odor then…. LOL

BirdGuanoat 21:13

Having a pre-done file we could simply upload to VistaPrint would be great.

Pre-formatted and approved wording.

Then each of us can have our own printed.

NJ. Preppie – at 21:26

Have a lot of preps in noncooked food. I spoke to my water dept. and power company and they are not planning for a lack of fuel delivery. If there is a power failure, the water dept. thinks it can run a generator by getting fuel from the gas station. I wouldn’t expect a “gas company” would consider storing fuel either. Try asking yours.

Medical Maven – at 21:34

Birdguano at 21:09: I think you have also hit upon an excellent way to stretch your preps. If that doesn’t just about kill your appetite, nothing will. : )

ANON-YYZ – at 21:48

Medical Maven – at 21:34

Some one could try this:

http://tinyurl.com/ha7oh

or this:

http://tinyurl.com/hsfhu

instead of ‘wasting’ a natural resource :-)

Medical Maven – at 23:16

ANON-YYZ at 21:48: With all of the beans fluwikians have stockpiled, if we calculated all of the potential, naturally fermented “biogas” generated through time we could probably light up Times Square on New Years Eve. : )

ANON-YYZ – at 23:32

Medical Maven – at 23:16

Ah, now I know why WHO keeps sending the message everything’s under control. The continuous supply of B* from the WHO generates so much ‘biogas’ that Continuity of Natural Gas will never be a problem.

28 August 2006

SCW AZ – at 00:32

It sounds as if we lose electricity, we’ll also lose the natural gas supply line and distribution. The grand bummer is that unlike electricity, natural gas won’t be “switched” back on again ASAP.

With electricty after the thunderstorm passes, the wait begins for the light bulbs to flicker, signaling that power has returned.

With natural gas, each home will have to have the line into the house shut off by a worker. When a grid or area is “secure” someone will have to turn the gas back on and go into each home to ensure that all pilot lights are lit, house by house. . .

So ya think the gas company guys and gals are going to be making “house calls” ???

Average Concerned Mom – at 00:43

Seems like a worker (if there were any avaiable of course) could get in and out of a house without too much risk on infection, to light a pilot light. The risk would be nothing compared to, say, what a Health Care Worker would be exposed to, or the police, emergency workers, etc.

I’m not saying it’s what I’m expecting, certainly not in a worst case scenario. But already when someone comes to service my furnace, it’s not like we have a lot of contact.

I open the door, he comes in, goes to the basement, works a little, then I sign a paper with my credit card number on it and he leaves. I wouldn’t even have to BE there for him to light the pilot. He could enter the basement door, the whole family could even be upstairs, even on the second floor — well over 10 feet distance away. Gloves for the doorknob. I’m just saying — I think it could be done. (For the right fee of course!)

ANON-YYZ – at 02:10

Average Concerned Mom – at 00:43

The only problem with that plan is electricity doesn’t fail just once. It keeps going up and down i.e. rotating blackouts from one district to another. Until it stabilizes, which means after a pandemic, the gas utility will give up trying to provide service. One small mistake somewhere could cause either CO death or worse, explosion.

It won’t work. Don’t count on it.

gharris – at 02:21

YYZ - we should be in bed now!!!! This will still be here tomorrow!! :-))

ANON-YYZ – at 02:30

gharris – at 02:21

Thanks. Good night.

jane – at 22:07

Didn’t someone say the gas company used its own gas to power their pumps or other equipment? Drat, was that a myth?

Wolf – at 22:38

No kiddin’, jane. I’ve been without electric before in cold winters but while my electric-powered forced air furnace was out, my little gas thingy worked fine and kept us going. hmmmm…..

29 August 2006

ANON-YYZ – at 00:31

Wolf – at 22:38

Glad to hear that. How large was the area with power outage, and for how long?

Average Concerned Mom – at 07:26

Wolf— and what exactly was your lttle gas -thingy? Sounds like something to put on my ever growing list of things I want but cannot afford….

My understanding og the gas situation is — if you lose electricity on your street or in your part of town, the gas will keep flowing fine, the only issues are do your appliances need electricty to use the gas. So, I could cook on my stovetop but the electric light won’t work — have to use matches. That happens frequntly during power outages around here. Also, I think the thermostat of the oven wouldn’t work, so while you could bake, you coudn’t control the temperature except by opening and closing the oven

I hadn’t thought about the forced air part of my furnace being run by electricity, but of course it must be. I guess we have never lost power for long enough in the cold for me to have experienced that problem.

Anyhow, the big worry being, what happens if the gas company itself loses electricity — then they can’t even get gas to our houses to run the appliances?

jane – at 08:00

ACM, the oven will not turn on, at least in the newer models. The gas will not flow if the electric heat bar (or whatever it is called) doesn’t work. Frustrating. I’ve baked biscuits on the cooktop, in a cast iron skillet ( covered) though.

NJ. Preppie – at 08:57

In the Katrina crisis, the New Orleans police, Red Cross, rescue workers, etc. were caught off guard that their cell phones weren’t working. People have these myths about what will still work due to most blackouts being very local and not affecting phones, gas, water, etc. Hospitals and water companies have back up generators which will handle a few days of power, but they won’t be able to get more gasoline if the gas stations have no electricity.

If the whole power grid goes down, consider that your phone service, water and natural gas will stop shortly. For those who are planning to use a generator for their house; think about which appliances use natural gas. That could be, beside a furnace,- the water heater, the clothes dryer, the dish washer, the oven/stove. You may be using a generator only for lights and refridgeration. You might turn on your computer and find that your internet server is not working. You might turn on your TV. and find there is no broadcasting. Don’t depend that a generator will keep your life running normally. Consider how else you will heat and cook and get water.

28 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:06

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / National Preparation-Action Beyond the Talk

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: National Preparation-Action Beyond the Talk

09 June 2006

anonymous – at 04:56

On July 15–16th, ~30 respiratory therapists will meet in Phoenix to train as trainers for SNS ventilator equipment. I will be one of several instructors for this session. This process will repeat at intervals until all 200 USPHS MRC therapists are certified to use this equipment and train others. A work in progress, we will also be emphasising use under altered standards, austere conditions and scarce resources. Our scenarios must impart a realistic enough experience for the providers grasp as there will be little chance of a live fire exercise. The 30 will be available for hurricane season and I am assured of deployment if medical teams are required. Realtime work on the ground will enhance our training. We have recruited 50 (so far) of the best Rts in the country, mostly with critical care/transport/neonatal-pediatric experience. I will continue to post on this thread as more develops. This is HHS working with AARC. We must continue to but the best of what we have with the best of what they have. I’m not sure how high up this blessing at HHS goes. Parker, the Acting Sec for OPHEP for sure, but maybe this has Leavitts wand on it too. I’m sure there are those that still believe our medical response will fold in a blink. We’ll see.

rrteacher – at 04:59
  • :)*******

itsa me

Melanie – at 05:51

This is public/private partnership at work and we’ll be paying attention. rrteacher, keep posting and let us know how this goes.

BroncoBillat 13:34

Bump

anon_in_ga – at 17:00

rrteacher or anyone else who might know the answers.

These may seem like silly questions, but I heard so many reports than if panflu did hit, I started wondering:

How expensive are they? In other words, how big of a deal would it be to encourage hospitals in your local area to buy more.

For the public hospitals, is there any way to get them to tell the public or media just how many they have?

I assume from post above operating them requires special training, is this for legal or technical reasons? Would an ordinary nurse fresh out school know how to use one?

Can anyone buy one? I mean could a group of concerned citizen hold a fundraiser and raise money and donate to local medical centers? Can a non HCW be trained and certified in using one, kinda of like with those cardiac arrest machines you see on plans and some office buildings ?

How expensive are they?

Np1 – at 17:18

I will leave cost questions to rrteacher or others who have more accurate figures. I can tell you about the resources it takes to manage a very sick person on a vent. At least one person who can manage the vent, pref a trained RT, but in a pinch a properly trained person otherwise. To manage fluid balence, hemodynamic drips, antibiotics, SEDATION ISSUES( most most people on vents need to be sedated or they will “fight” the vent and pull tubes out) assist unskilled personal with moving, Ect one trained RN for each three vents.

Now I just know that the RNs here are gonna say” three vents, Kelly you are outta your mind” If you have enough semiskilled support you can do it, I have. Not willingly, but I have. I am not optmistic about finding enough Skilled RNs to do this. I know rrteacher thinks it can and will be done, but looking at ICUs now and many operating in crisis mode, I am not optmistic. Kelly

anon_in_ga – at 19:18

Thanks Np1. Not being knowledgable in this area, I had thought it would be kinda of like an IV. Nurse puts it in place, alarm goes off if something is going wrong. From your response, I see it is much more.

anon_in_ga – at 19:22

Also, coming from someone who is not very knowledgable about the medical industry. I have recently learned that hospitals have different levels assigned to them and that this level basically determines what level of treatment/trauma cases they can handle. Are all levels able and equiped to handle respirators. I know many of you have medical backgrounds, so thanks in advance for taking time to answer questions that probably seem very obvious to you.

Melanie – at 19:52

anon_in_ga,

This has to do with the trauma levels assigned to emergency rooms and infectious diseases requiring negative pressure rooms. In pandemic conditions all hospitals will be completely swamped and trauma levels will not apply.

RuralMDat 19:58

My federally-funded clinic has started discussing panflu plans. Apparently I was the first one to show concern, but my colleagues are taking it up now also. Our tiny hospital has one ventilator, and we have one respiratory therapist (there are three who trade shifts, one is always on duty); also only one RN on duty. Ventilator management is complicated, and I never felt comfortable doing it alone as a resident. They are used in ICU settings, and our hospital does not have an ICU. If you have 500 sick people, who get the ONE vent?

10 June 2006

rrteacher – at 00:09

Everyone is right so far. The lungs/ventilator do not function in a vacuum, (word play, yes?). As NP1 alludes to, just putting a healthy person on a ventilator changes electrolytes, fluid balance, blood pressure, hormones and not to mention the inability to speak, the ease of getting a bacterial infection from further impairing lung defenses, (the vent and ET tube do this all by themselves) and the FEAR. It is a very complicated process. And if you perfectly balance all of those, there are complications like VILI, (ventilator induced lung injury) adding to the cytokine storm damage, collapse of the lung, pulmonary embolism, and the list is long. People rarely die as a direct result of the ARDS damage as long as the oxygen level stays, at least, marginal. They die of the complications of treatment most often. That is a simplified understatement, but the picture is there. This is the up side on a good day in a well equipped ICU with a good MD/RN/RT on top of things. The downside is obvious. I have heard that humanity is at its best when things are at their worst. Over the years, I have become a little cynical. HMOs, Fat CEOs, make money, pay me more, give me a better parking space, ad nauseum. When I was young I thought I could change the world, I would do great things, I would help people, I would heal people. Somewhere I, and maybe we, lost some of that. It’s a non realistic idealism, but everyone I know has at least a little somewhere. All the vents and HCWs we manage to throw into this war will require something we don’t have a lot of right now. A sense of purpose. It will be who we are and what we do that determines how successful we are.

anon_in_ga – at 08:51

Thank you all for your answers, from someone not from a medical background it has been very educational.

I guess the only questions that I still have is there anyway to find out how many respirators your local hospital has? And how much do they cost? We participate in 2 local fundraisers each year for our local public hospital. If we purchased new ones, would the county owned hospital have the funds to train the staff to use them? How much additional training would a hcw need to know how to operate one properly?

Thanks again for taking time to answer questions for someone who has zero knowledge of how the medical industry works.

townplanner – at 09:50

I think questioning the nurse:ventilator ratio is a very short-sighted issue. As the infection rate peaks, and the volume of patients skyrockets, and number of med tech plumments, this might all be academic. There will be terminal patients to be sedated; anyone else will be sent home for their family to administer home care. Grim, but realistic

rrteacher – at 12:26

Townplanner. Yes, two ends of the spectrum. Perfect World vs Worse Nightmare. However, our plan is to train every RT in the country, not only ventilator operation, but how to do more with less. Under the alter states, austere conditions, scarce resource scenarios of MC and PF5.1. Beyond that, training EMPersonnel, (who already have a big leg up) and all medic/medical capable of monitoring and providing basic care. In the Polio Epidemic of 1959, medical students worked around the clock in shifts providing manual ventilation to victims. It was the Polio Epidemic that thrust critical care and mechanical ventilation into the current age of “automatic” technology. Tier Morch, an anaesthesiologist, developed one of the first modern ventilators. His son was a victim. The first electro-mechanical devices were clumsy and not precision instruments. The distrust of the technology forced us to improve reliability and accuracy. Today, the technology exists for much more technological autonomy in providing ventilation, but FDA and others are reluctant to trust computers with human life. We may again, be propelled into an unsure and unproven science to save lives. Out of the cube thinking begins with what can we do with what we have. Not liking the answers, we begin a “what if” course out of the necessity to save lives. Not make cheaper or easier or even safer. It will be time for another leap.

Jane – at 12:39

I’m glad to hear about progress, rrteacher. But I Googled sns ventilator. One costs $30,000. There can’t possibly be enough during a pandemic. Is there any other solution? Would oxygen be helpful even without a vent? Adding a humidifier? Tilting the bed with head down to drain the lungs?

If any of the home remedies are helpful, laymen should be taught. There isn’t the equipment for a pandemic anyway, not to mention the skilled people to monitor the patients. I never dreamed it was so complex.

rrteacher – at 12:47

Incorrect-The list price for the Eagle 745 (main battle vent used by the military and 1/2 of the SNS inventory) is $8945. I’m pretty sure we can get them cheaper than list. We are operating on the premise of saving more, not all. That is a harsh reality, but one more victim is one more family without a loss. I have proposed some vents in the $3000 range that would work as well, but require more skill. We are looking at ALL the possibilities.

cactus az – at 19:16
 Ok, I agree that less experianced RNs could manage a vent patient, with support . Perhaps a “charge” RN could oversee the others..But…..
 Where are you going to find more monitors, beds, space for these new ICU patients?
 As it is, I have spent many hours trying to find an ICU bed in the Valley for my rural patients?The available beds are full now.
 When the BF hits, things won`t stop. People will still have MIs,CVAs, accidents, etc.
 True, elective surgeries will stop, but most of these patients don`t need ICU care.An elective CABG, triple A repair are a few that come to mind.
 And, what happens if the power goes out for days? Most hospital gens don`t have an unlimited amount of fuel available.Everyone gets a turn at bagging?
 Been there did that, for 8 hours one blizzard, when the gen at the rural hospital I was at went down. Twas not fun.1/2 hour was the limit, then your hands go into spasms. Even had the janitor bagging.
 Doing that for a large number of patients at a time….Blows my mind.
 When TSHTF, I think that , as bad as it sounds, we are going to need to do aggressive Triaging, and some folks are going to have to be sent home, probably to die. It honestly makes no sense to tie up scarce medical personal to care for someone who is ,in all probabilty going to die anyway.
KimTat 20:12

ok, this is a question about how HCW handle the stress of patients dying, should be moved over to the stress thread but I’ll ask it here and we can move there. What advice can you give us non medical people in dealing with death?

rrteacher – at 23:08

KimT-Fall apart after the pandemic is over. Cactus-Only the sickest will get monitoring beds. Ventilators will be set up in hospital rooms, hallways, tent-hospitals, anywhere you can lie a patient down. Power will come from generators, battery-backed systems/UPSs and pneumatic ventilators don’t require a power supply

Medical Maven – at 23:18

KimT: What I have found is that “love” is the greatest power in the world. If you truly love your family, you will do remarkable things in a crisis, even one of a longterm duration such as an 18 month pandemic. And if one of your family dies, you will persevere for the others.

Conversely, if all of them die, you will likely be dead yourself. That is the way it crumbles.

11 June 2006

TRay75at 03:27

rrteacher,

Could a nebulizer be used to “charge” an expanding bag (think of a balloon), and a trip valve(working on pressure or time) release the bag? If so, we could adapt thousands of those of semi-automatic operation in short order, and nebulizers are abundant as most parents with kids with asthma know. It still has the power issue, but it makes thousands of units available on short notice with limited funds. I know it sounds very MacGyver, but give it some thought.

NS1 – at 03:58

rr-

Sounds like you’re slated for a tight schedule even prior to PF51. Will you have time to communicate with us here or do we need to arrange a point person to take a message from you now and then and relay it?

Have you communicated with any of the other selected instructors yet? Are most of them as senior and as current as you on the equipment and techniques? What do they think about all of this?

Are you going to be using stock materials from old training or will you have a new syllabus directly related to H5N1? Will you have an opportunity to refine the materials?

NS1 – at 04:02

TRay,

Man, you are full of field-expedient ideas!

The nebulizer is a concern for many due to the high possibility of infection spread via aerosol. Now retrofitting the unit to expel air rather than aerosol is another thing altogether? Could it handle the back pressure? Does the output nozzle adjust for air only? Your idea, if made functional, would require a skilled operator.

rrteacher – at 04:49

NS1 I will be lap-top hot the entire trip and will post as I go.

Three others, one would be considered the worlds foremost expert on the ventilators in question and has been investigating/authoring material on MC care for some time. Another is a aero-transport therapist at Mayo Clinics and the third is a very technically seasoned, crusty old fart. Mass casualty is the main focus and PF5.1 is part of that. I will be adding the nuances of infection control, pathophysiologic considerations and specific treatment modalities.

We have a conference call this Tuesday among us to brainstorm and generate a set of objectives, course outline and learning packet. We’ll have less than 30 days.

NS1 – at 05:15

30 days to generate materials, have them printed and delivered?

NS1 – at 05:20

Will there still be a Dallas stop?

Of the other 3, how many consider this an exercise on H5N1 versus standard disaster MC? Will you get them to agree to lean toward tighter infection control, JIC?

Will there be any time given to field-expedient methods in the face of resource scarcity, or will you focus on streamlining currently-practiced and known methods?

rrteacher – at 07:25

In the long run, I am advocating that this show play everywhere. Over 40,000 RTs need to be competent, so Dallas is very likely. I will also advocate the course extend beyond RT to “others”.

I’m the FluFanatic, but all agree with the “all hazzards” approach. I will hammer H5N1 and have backing from friends, like “Deep Trachea”.

The “alpha group” are the HHS/OPHEP therapists. We fully expect and have had some training in field/transport medicine and some of us are ADLS providers. We will introduce those concepts to newbys. Also, HHS wants the training complete before the first big blow (CatX) so we can get some boots on the ground time in

Grace RN – at 07:33

rrteacher- re” SNS ventilator equipment”

SNS?

Congrats- this is an issue I know has concerned you for a long time and you have put alot of work and time into creating this training.

Np1-you’re right re the issues of vent/RN’s-and which RN’s? the percentage of nurses who have experience with caring for these most critical patients is relatively small I’d guess compared to the total number of RN’s-that said, improvise-adapt-overcome has been our unspoken motto…I have alot of issues re: alloting resources to vent patients over, say preventive/ambulatory care when TSHTF, but the predictable progression to ARDS opens up a door to the need for expanded vent care…..

rrteacher – at 20:14

Thanks Grace

Swann – at 23:16

Hi Grace! I believe SNS = Strategic National Stockpile.

13 June 2006

rrteacher – at 15:25

Had a meeting with all the necessary players today. The program will be property of the US Government and currently offered to the HHS RTs. It will be videotaped and packaged just the same and I would conclude that it will eventually be available for the masses. The major push for this program is hurricane season, but again, the “all hazards” approach applies to, well all hazards. Our foot is in the door for coming up with an introductory program. Our success or failure to do a good job of it will determine where we go from there. PF5.1 is another chapter. This is progress.

17 June 2006

Swann – at 02:40

bump

20 June 2006

MaMa- Still open – at 00:52
rrteacher – at 02:14

Thanks MaMa, Will update soon. USGovt processes are sssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllloo

02 July 2006

rrteacher – at 19:17

I will quietly report that there is an official effort to provide EMS with updated, next level ventilator management skills. This is from my professional organization through the NAEMSP (National Association of EMS Physicians). Though no specific mention of pandemic planning is mentioned, it is the first handshake between ourselves and our cousins in the emergency medical field. This concept, fully extended, could increase pandemic capable ventilator care providers to around 250–300K individuals.

glennk – at 19:54

Sounds great! Good luck. These folks will someday save the lives of thousands. I wish that you had more resources because if this thing hits any time soon your 300K will be rapidly overwhelmed by sheer numbers needing these services.

Gary Near Death Valley – at 22:37

Just wondering how come the screen here is not about 2x as large. Not so easy to read now.

03 July 2006

Bumped – at 00:40
Bronco Bill – at 00:41

Gary Near Death Valley – at 22:37 --- Caused by side scroll. PMWiki tends to throw up sometimes! Mods have been notified…tow truck and repair crew are on their way….

Hurricane Alley RN – at 01:19

bump

rrteacher – at 03:25

Thanks BB, Mea Culpa for thw SS Sorry

DemFromCTat 07:49

“”This is progress.”

fron 02 July

rrteacher – at 19:17

I will quietly report that there is an official effort to provide EMS with updated, next level ventilator management skills. This is from my professional organization through the NAEMSP (National Association of EMS Physicians). Though no specific mention of pandemic planning is mentioned, it is the first handshake between ourselves and our cousins in the emergency medical field. This concept, fully extended, could increase pandemic capable ventilator care providers to around 250–300K individuals.

15 July 2006

rrteacher – at 08:46

Off to Phoenix for training today. Have over 30mb of files to share with others like me. Most I found here and at CE. Thank you all for your support.

Carrying The Message.

Regards,

Richard

18 July 2006

rrteacher – at 14:18

Back from a productive trip. Training was a drop in the bucket, but a hoop that needed clearing. With all the changes going on at OPHEP, we can only continue advocating our ideas and hope the FNGs are brighter than their predecessors. Did get an opportunity to meet many PHS officers in cammo and “ops” haircuts. Whoa!

Now we wait for a deployment opportunity. The overall capability we can bring to bear WTSHTF will be sharpened as we respond to local and regional incidents. You Know Who forbid a hurricane slam us somewhere, but we need a lot more practice and strength.

Now for some FEMA/DHS courses. That will make us smarter.

Regards,

Richard

nsthesia – at 15:01

I read an article in our local paper this past week that really impressed me. I have since tried to find the article - to no avail. This is a synopsis of what I read:

The local Red Cross has been giving courses to teenagers for the past three years on disaster training. I was (pleasantly) shocked. The article said they have focused on teens because they are the future and will be the next Red Cross volunteers. The courses have been so well received that they have had to increase the number trained.

The courses include basic CPR, disaster planning and how to assist during a crisis. The program is extensive (I believe 2–3 weeks long). These teens are sufficiently trained to be utilized in disasters and can help set up and staff shelters. Their training covers multiple disaster scenarios, including hurricane and bioterrorism.

I was pleased to see this. Some young, strong bodies with educated BRAINS, just might come in handy during a crisis.

cactus az – at 15:19

“Some young, strong bodies with educated BRAINS, just might come in handy during a crisis.”

  And, if this flu follows it`s earlier cousin (1918), more fodder for the pandemic.

 Good luck RTT. We all are going to need it.

 I`m still having a problem with vents in the halls.

 Where are you getting the necessary suction equipment for each patient? Are you encouraging hospitals to stock not only the vents but the circuits for changes( currently many places have the circuits changed Q 24 hours). Even if you go to 48–72 hours, that`s a lot of stock. And, when the oxygen runs out, what then?And, where are you getting the E tanks to run vents in the halls, anyways?

 Just a few worry points.
cactus az – at 15:41
 Sorry, rrteacher. Worked last night, and am going on just a few hours sleep. And suffer from fat finger( can`t type) syndrome.

:-)

nsthesia – at 16:13

yeah, cactus az…I thought of that too, in reference to panflu. But there are PLENTY of other disaster potentials that do not include cytokine storms, esp. hurricanes in our state.

As for the vent situation, I am happy to see others get training. But, at the risk of being pessimistic, there is no way in hades that we will have enough vents of any caliber to handle a panflu in the near future. Hell, probably in the FAR future either!

Have you read the info on the Medicare/Medicaid cuts? Hospitals are already almost at the breaking point. You know the first thing they will cut back on is personnel and then equipment. Anyone in healthcare knows that. Oh…and training…and benefits…anything else I left out? BTW, these cuts include nursing homes. Remember our discussion on those? Most are already minimally staffed. Imagine a reduction.

As for a few of your “worry points”…I have used portable suction devices that could be moved from patient to patient. Not ideal, but it would help. And the OR census should be drastically reduced in a panflu, so some of the suction equipment from there could be used.

As for circuit changes, I would anticipate that in a crisis, that changing filters more frequently could reduce the number of circuits utilized. Some of these poor panflu patients only lasted a few hours anyway. I can’t (yes I can) imagine this scenario. I am sure the secretions would be fulminant, with some massive hemorrhages as well.

I will bow to RTT’s expertise re: vents, but in my experience, it takes specific vents to operate without wall gas pressures. I have done volunteer work and had to hand ventilate pediatric patients for hours because of this. We rigged up a low pressure vent system, but it was less than ideal.

rrteacher – at 16:39

Thanks guys, I feel better already. We will use Viral capable HMEs on all patients, (I hope), as every RT/OR has these. HMEs of any variety will help reduce droplets and transmission as well as take care of the humidification issue. I only pray to You Know Who that we do not see a significant hemorrhagic component, as if we do, we are screwed. The SNS vents do not come with suction equipment but do have extra circuits. They are also electrically powered with decent battery back up. If we cant get power, we are screwed. Every OR may become an ICU bed and every positive pressure device, even the old Birds in the basement may get hauled out, but you are right about not having enough. We know that. I happen to have an old Laerdal Portable Suction that runs off Freon. EPA missed mine when they were confiscating them, but battery suctions will do and reusing catheters (same patient) after a rinse may be necessary. I cannot ascertain if the extensive systems failure seen in 1918 and so well described by Barry, is a result of severe untreated hypoxemia, (nobody got supplemental O2 in 1918) or a result of viral damage to tissues. DIC is very possible by hypoxic injury and if we intervene early, we may be able to obviate hemorrhagic problems. I am searching for someone smarter than me to splain it to me.

anonymous – at 16:56

We had a Hanta virus patient in our ICU several weeeks back. Mid 40s, pretty good protoplasm. She had been sick for couple of days. When she started to slide there was nothing we could do to stop her. Massive third spacing, MOSF, all the pressors that we used worked for only a short time. Died within 24 hours of admission to ICU.

Our IC director said that she believes that this is what panflu could look like( clinically ), and she had been studing it since 1997. If this is even close to the truth then triaging to save the most salvageable will be very difficult. There is no way that we can have enough pressors, sedatives or antibiotics to save very many. Kelly

Np1 – at 16:57

Oops, my handle is missing. Sorry. Kelly

rrteacher – at 17:14

Working in Montana, I saw a couple of cases myself. HPS, (Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome), presents much like pulmonary anthrax, creating massive hemorrhagic pulmonary effusions via the lymphatics. H5N1 as it will present as a human virus is still an unknown. She may be right. One merciful thing about HPS is, it is very fast. In developing an All Hazards approach, we are advocating an All Pathology thinking to our capability. Airway vs. Alveolar. Hemorrhage vs. Not, etc. We must think in terms of all pathology possibilities.

“They Might Be Giants”.

George C. Scott as Sherlock Holmes in movie of the same name.

nsthesia – at 20:43

RRT,

I have been assuming that the cytokine storm will start the patient on the slippery slope to DIC. And I don’t anticipate that all the O2 in the world will help once the cascade gets started. I am also assuming that an infected patient won’t have much of a chance unless they are identified EARLY, treated with antivirals, O2, IVs and any other support needed.

I also assume that some of the ORs will be used as critical care beds. Our anesthesia machines can be utilized as ventilators. There are multiple suction devices present in each room. But I suppose they could put more than one patient in each room and thus use them all. G.

And of course, all of the above is just my view of the world with a skeptical eye. This virus may not follow it’s current path. But you are right. One patient with a fulminant pulmonary edema/hemmorhage will use up a week’s worth of supplies in one day.

Triage is gonna be tough.

29 August 2006

EnoughAlreadyat 00:53

bump

28 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:06

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Page last modified on October 28, 2006, at 08:06 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Pregnancy Questions II

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Pregnancy Questions II

29 August 2006

Bronco Bill – at 00:20

Continued from here


doldrums – at 22:03

I read somewhere that Tamiflu isn’t recommended for use by pregnant women, but perhaps since Relenza isn’t absorbed into the body but mostly stays in the lungs maybe it would be better in pregnancy as not much would get to the baby.

28 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:05

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Page last modified on October 28, 2006, at 08:05 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / FDA Warning on Counterfeit Drugs

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: FDA Warning on Counterfeit Drugs

17 September 2006

preppiechick – at 02:24

I apologize if someone has posted this already- I searched and only found Tamiflu references, from several month sago. I figured since many were doing some extra stocking up, this might be useful info.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is advising consumers not to purchase prescription drugs from websites that have orders filled by Mediplan Prescription Plus Pharmacy or Mediplan Global Health in Manitoba, Canada following reports of counterfeit versions of prescription drug products being sold by these companies to U.S. consumers. FDA is investigating these reports and is coordinating with international law enforcement authorities on this matter…

fda warning on counterfeit drugs

19 September 2006

bump – at 10:15

28 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:04

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Page last modified on October 28, 2006, at 08:04 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Country Ham

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Country Ham

14 September 2006

Kenpofemme – at 20:49

Hello. I was wondering if anyone is storing country ham. I saw an episode of Good Eats and they suggested that one could store it unrefridgerated in the basement for a very long time. Any suggestions on where to get it? Storage? Other smoked products with long easy storage? I have some pepperoni but I am always looking for variety for my preps! Thanks in advance. Keep on Prepp’n!

Bronco Bill – at 20:52

Smithfield Hams and Edwards of Virginia are good places. Google them…they’re both in Virginia USA

Carrey in VA – at 20:53

My inlaws cure thier own and it hangs outside in a shed to cure. They do bring it in after slicing and freeze it though I doubt that is necessary.

We don’t eat it like most folks though. We slice it to about 1/8 inch thick, then fry it in a skillet. Making gravy from the grease, and serving it over biscuits. YUMMMM

I think if your gonna bake it, ya have to soak it over night covered in water, but I’m not sure.

Kenpofemme – at 21:11

thanks for the advice!

Medical Maven – at 21:46

If you have not tried a “country ham”, give them a taste-test before you stock them. I believe they are an “acquired taste”. They are salty enough to float The Dead Sea.

Watching in Texas – at 21:58

Kenpofemme - ditto what Medical Maven said at 21:46. They are way too salty for my tastes, but I know folks who just love them. I would certainly try before you buy a bunch.

preppiechick – at 22:06

I agree, also, about the salt factor. We do love sugar-cured, though- you can buy whole and halfs, around the holidays, at cracker barrel. They ship cold and state that they have to be refrigerated - I haven’t looked into any hams because of this ( and I’d have to be starving to eat the canned hams- another acquired taste, though I know lots of others are stocking.

Watching in Texas – at 22:16

preppiechick - I plan on using the canned hams in soups and beans. But, yeah, it may be an acquired taste thing:-)

lady biker – at 23:48

we always smoked and sugar cured our hams and shoulders at butcherin time. and they hung out in the smokehouse till needed and mom did the bacon too. so check on sugar cure as well as salt cure. there is a place about fifty miles up the road from me called Hatfield’s country smoked hams and they have them. not too shabby either.

15 September 2006

Carrey in VA – at 07:24

too salty? is there such a thing? surely not!!! LOL

mmmmm country ham, biscuits and gravy!

Captain1 – at 07:29

As a Virginian, I’ll add my 2 cents - country ham - good enough to make you wanna slap your mamma !! (and that’s VERY good ;>)

Carrey in VA – at 08:25

LMFAO Captain1 so true, pulling some out of the freezer tonight for supper LOL

EOD – at 09:49

Cracker Barrel also carries Country Hams, (at least in the Southern States) they usually have them hanging on a post near the entrance to the dining rooms. They should be soaked in water for 24 hours before eating to remove the excess salt.

Medical Maven – at 10:06

EOD et al: I am generally adventurous and omnivorous when it comes to food, but after soaking my next country ham for the required 24 hours I will drink the water and throw away the ham. : )

(By the way, I do not like the canned hams pumped full of water. My holy grail of hams goes back to one that my brother acquired for Thanksgiving back in the late 70s from some little smokehouse in Missouri. It was ambrosia-smoky, salty, and with a hint of sweetness and it was fatty, God Bless it.

Sahara – at 11:52

Usually, you soak a ham in lots of water for 24 hours. Poach it in several bottles of red wine. Reduce the wine and swirl in some butter to make a sauce for your ham. Eat it and dream of France. <sigh>

Along that line, another good thing to stock is salt cod. It keeps in the fridge for many months. You probably don’t even have to refrigerate it if you have a cool storage place. Befor using it you soak it in water for 24 hours, changing the water several times. Then you flake it and make the most seriously delicious cod cakes you’ve ever had. Or, you puree it and spread it on bread.

The cod comes in little wooden boxes and its the easiest thing to stack in the back of the fridge (with the composting mushrooms, the almost empty bottles of horseradish, and the dozen containers that each contain one olive).

Clawdia – at 12:01

I bought a country ham last Christmas when they were on sale and put it down in the basement. Got it out, scraped some mold off of it, and cooked it a month or so ago. Good as new, it was, and salty, yes, but it’s supposed to be salty - many people slice this stuff so thin you can just about see through it. It doesn’t hurt them to have a little mold on the outside. The trick is just not to cut into the ham at all until you’re ready to cook it, then wash well and remove mold. I like it salty, so we don’t soak the hams before cooking - just cover with water and boil until done. I’m going to get another one to put in the basement soon - we live in VA, so finding one isn’t that much of a problem. The Food Lion grocery stores around here sell them . . . the best are brand name Clifty Farms. They’ll keep better if you can hang them up in a basement, but we just tossed this one in a corner for about 9 months - it was fine. . . better than fine - makes me want another one, just thinking about it!

Watching in Texas – at 12:05

Medical Maven - LOL! That must have been some ham:-)

FrenchieGirlat 12:08

When storing in the cellar, make sure no animals can get at it!

Sahara – at 12:09

Clawdia - I was curious about how big your ham was. I see on the Edwards of Virgina site that their bone-in hams are 16–17 lbs and make 60 servings! Thats a bit much for my family. Was yours smaller?

Bronco Bill – at 12:14

Sahara – at 12:09 --- Don’t forget that the bone in those hams can weigh upwards of 5–8 pounds. Edwards does have smaller hams, but you have to go the retail store in Williamsburg to get those.

inthehills – at 12:19

in a large pan,melt a tblspn of butter with an equal amount of light brown sugar.over medium-low heat,place a slice of country ham in the caramelized butter for 10 to 12 minutes per side.remove ham when done. deglaze the pan drippings with black coffee. reduce and serve over grits and eggs and biscuits. red-eye gravy. better then sex. kindof. anyway,good stuff.

Clawdia – at 12:20

The ham I had was about 15 pounds - we cut it in half after opening it, and cooked half. Put the other half in the refrigerator, and about a week after we finished the first half, I cooked the second half, and we just kept right on eating ham . . . it will last a long time in the refrigerator after cooking.

You can get smaller ones sometimes, but that was about average size. And as BB says - remember there’s a good sized bone in ‘em . . . which makes wonderful soup after you’re sick of the ham . . .

Hillbilly Bill – at 12:25

A note on sugar-cured hams:

Sugar cures have just as much salt as brine cures, but they also have brown sugar added to the mix, after all it is the salt that preserves the meat. I have sugar cured hams and bacon many times and enjoyed eating it many months later. However, it is definitely an acquired taste and I have yet to see a young child that likes country ham even if it has been soaked to reduce the salt content.

Some may turn their nose up at canned hams, but I’ve got quite a few on my shelves and they will be a welcome addition to beans if need be.

Strider – at 12:26

Bronco Bill – at 12:14

Thanks for the tip on Edwards in Williamsburg. I’m going right past Williamsburg on Monday and will pick one up. My dogs were hoping that I picked up a big one with an 8 pound bone but they will probably be happy with the BBRWFK soaked juices (al la Sahara – at 11:52).

OKbirdwatcherat 12:38

HBB - I have canned hams in my preps also. While they may not be my absolute favorite food, I can think of several ways to use them and if times get really tough, I think I’ll be tickled to have them.

Sahara – at 12:43

Thanks Clawdia. I think I will go for it. The thought of ham for New Years, then ham biscuits and split pea soup is too tempting to refuse.

Strider - I got that recipe a little confused. Thinking back on it, the ham was soaked, boiled in water, then the sauce made with reduced red wine. Wouldn’t want anyone to waste wine boiling a ham, then end up with ham the color of old strawberries. :-P

Strider – at 12:47

BB: Edwards 800# operator didn’t know the location of the retail store in Williamsburg. I emailed them, but since it is Friday afternoon and I will be traveling past there at 9 am Monday they probably won’t get back to me in time. I guess I’ll get the bigger “Food Lion” ham, give the dogs the 8 lb bone, and enjoy the BBRWFK juices myself.

Chesapeake – at 12:47

Question-once the ham has been cut does it then need to be refrigerated?

Strider – at 12:49

Sahara – at 12:43 OK, change my post to BB to “I will get sauced with the BBRWFK.” ;)

Bronco Bill – at 12:50

inthehills – at 12:19 --- I *cannot* wait to git to Virginnie!!!
I’m sorry, but “Country” food in California means frozen Brown n’ Serve sausage, Pillsbury biscuits in a roll, and psuedo-bacon strips!

Clawdia – at 12:51

Chesapeake - Yes, it does need to be refrigerated after being cut.

inthehills – at 12:52

country ham may also be purchased,at least in the south, presliced,and sealed in plastic. it will indeed keep for extended periods of time,if kept cool. just cooked some i stowed away a year ago. looked and tasted just fine.

Chesapeake – at 13:01

thank you Clawdia, I can’t count on refrigeration, but the sealed bags sound manageable.

Hillbilly Bill – at 13:18

OKbirdwatcher – at 12:38

My thoughts exactly.

Carrey in VA – at 13:27

tell me I’m not the only one having ham biscuits and gravy tonight for supper! LOL

Bronco Bill – at 13:38

Strider – at 12:47 --- I found the location of Edwards of Virginia storefront in Williamsburg:

Edwards Virginia Ham

I’m not sure what time they open on Monday morning. I do have a bit of an interest there—my DW works in the evenings part-time at the store. And believe it or not, she can’t stand Country ham…too much salt for her taste!

Strider – at 14:02

BB: Thanks! I’ll probably hit the store on the way back since they have evening hours as I am loathe to hit the Hampton Roads area traffic at rush hour, this gives me a reasonable stop to while away my time. I’m asking around at my Univ to see if anyone else wants some ham (no preppers there, but most people there like Va Ham.)

Maybe I’ll take a sign of the Fluwiki Swan and wave it around. If someone recognizes it I can probably assume that it’s your DW, and will say hello. ;)

When you get (finally) settled in to your new home, give a yell and I can bring my toxic mold sniffing Labrador down to recheck your house (my second job after the U). He can sniff it out down to (according to Auburn Univ) ~ 10 ppb from behind walls, in hidden ceilings etc. Never hurts to have a double check.

captain1 – at 15:15

Oh no! The mold on the country ham will throw him off!!

Strider – at 15:40

He’s trained to ONLY hit TOXIC mold, but the ham itself will get him every time! :)

Actually he was bred for extremely high food drive, back at least 7 generations for it. That is why he searches so diligently for mold, he knows that when he finds it (twice, from two different directions) he will get a “cookie”. Same method drug and explosive dogs are trained to. His brother works as a bomb dog in NYC, and one of his sisters (I THINK it’s a sister) works for the DEA. Great breeding, but the extremely high food drive DRIVES us nuts. I’ve found him three times in the last two days stuck in a Hav-a-Heart live trap out in the back 40 that we have out to trap some wild dogs, eating the food for the trap.

BTW, something for every one to consider if TSHTF. There will be LOTS of ex-pets running around VERY hungry and with no fear of man. The ones that I am trying to trap out took a mule down two weeks ago (pack of lab x pit). Fido can turn feral very quick when hungry.

Kenpofemme – at 19:11

Thanks again for all the advice. You folks are the best!

16 September 2006

Swann – at 02:22

Kenpofemme, you might try Summer Sausage for variety. It can be stored unrefridgerated until opened, I believe. A few crackers, slices of cheese, and the sausage makes a very nice meal for lunch.

Blue – at 02:54
 It sounds like these thing’s make spam taste good!
Ima-prepper – at 05:06

I had considered storing country ham for SIP purposes and decided against it. The only hams that can be stored at room temps are Country Hams. These are the saltiest of hams and will leave one thirsting for excess water all day. Not a good thing when your water is rationed.

Ima-prepper – at 05:08

If you are dead set on getting a country ham I recommend burgers smokehouse. I have purchased their products and highly recommend them. They can be located at: http://www.smokehouse.com/

17 September 2006

Clawdia – at 02:12

smokehouse products may be good . . . it’s obvious they’re good and expensive! I don’t even see anything about country ham except country ham shanks and one other thing - not a whole ham, unless I’m just too sleepy to see it. We paid about $25 for a 15 pound ham. I expect that’ll be a bit higher this year, just like everything else.

Chesapeake – at 06:23

There is a website for Edwards Virginia Ham http://tinyurl.com/bqncb

19 September 2006

amt – at 00:12

A couple of tips:

  1. I asked the butcher at the local grocery store to order one for us. It cost us about $2 a pound, and no shipping.
  2. The hock joint can be further up the ham than you think. I actually have gotten blisters trying to cut through the bone (sawing away), until I found the right spot.
  3. You need a really big (bigger than you think) pot to cook a ham.

Happy Country Ham.

NauticalManat 00:25

Remember buying a few whole country hams maybe 15 years ago and we just enclosed it in large heavy duty aluminum foil with water instead of trying to find a pan large enough. They come with instructions, we soaked it about 24 hours changing it occasionally. They were from Smithfield, but are an acquired taste for those who have not experienced them before. Somewhat similar to an Italian proscuitto, more to add flavor to beans, pea soup and so on than to eat as is. I liked it.

Ima-prepper – at 00:53

Burgers smokehouse is somewhat expensive but the prices include shipping. They have a variety of uncooked hams. The whole coutry hams are located here

http://tinyurl.com/qj7x3 and http://tinyurl.com/q88uf

Ive been very pleased with their products

28 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:04

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Page last modified on October 28, 2006, at 08:04 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Much Ado About Nothing

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Much Ado About Nothing

27 October 2006

Goju – at 21:13

The tension seems to be rising. Meetings are being held. More stories about “when the” pandemic happens. Studies are being done. Thread after thread with post after post getting more nervous and pessemistic. New “jaron” being invented…..

So i ask… where’s the Pandemic?

Where are the dying chicken, the dying ducks and mute swans? Where are the sick kids and dying clusters? Where is the Jakarta Post?

Ok - everybody can get mad at me now.

But i still ask… where’s H5N1 gone?

On the fence and leaning – at 22:02

I don’t want it to happen. I have been following it for awhile and things tend to run in waves; ups and downs but we’ve been down for a bit now. What’s going on out there? Seems to be more going on with West Nile, Dengue, and other types of staph infections than BF. Guess “RED ALERT” can only last for so long.

On the fence and leaning – at 22:02

I don’t want it to happen. I have been following it for awhile and things tend to run in waves; ups and downs but we’ve been down for a bit now. What’s going on out there? Seems to be more going on with West Nile, Dengue, and other types of staph infections than BF. Guess “RED ALERT” (maybe Yellow Alert) can only last for so long.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 22:10

Goju, it’s waiting for you to turn your back before it rears it’s ugly head - so DON’T turn your back! It does seem like much ado about nothing doesn’t it? The swan’s still upright and all’s well with the world……on the surface. Maybe we have a reprieve from a rushed Fall panic.

DennisCat 22:15

By my count, no WHO confirmed human cases since the 15th or so. The Thai govenment site keeps having susepected cases but they always test negative. Perhaps they have contained it. Perhaps it has mutated so it is harder to test for. It worries me that the Jakarta Post is down. I was “told” that they were “rebuilding their site” but stil…. Does anyone here have personal connections that can see hard copies of the paper?

Wolf – at 22:21

Goju – at 21:13

So i ask… where’s the Pandemic?

Where ever it is - may it stay there!

Np1 – at 22:24

It will be here in it’s own good time. Man is the one in this contest with the ego. Kelly

Medical Maven – at 22:34

There will certainly be a panflu of some sort in our future, if we live just a few more years.

I am continually astounded by the amount of environmental stress going on out there. The media is not playing it up. It is real. And it is ratcheting up exponentially. The coastal and inland megacities of the Developing World are sliding on a greased chute to Hell.

And I see this with “clear eyes”, a conservative capitalist and not a “Greenpeace” environmentalist.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 22:35

Seriously, someone commented that some country was on holiday and thats got something to do with the quiet.

KimTat 22:41

Goju – at 21:13

Is that really you? :-)

It would be nice if H5N1 went far far away but after sitting in those meeting of yours and talking with the people you talked with; do you really think its gone away? Those experts believe it will happen, eventually. Maybe we do have 5 years. That would be great. Maybe they will come up with away to create vacines faster and perhaps we will have time to update the grid and we can stockpile meds and food for the masses and begin depending on ourselves more then on just in time deliverys form other countries. The general public will have more time to get on board and our elected officials will be more in tune with saving the planet and people then getting kickbacks…and the statin research will pan out and provide hope during the first phase of a pandemic. It could happen.

28 October 2006

Goju – at 00:04

You can’t deny that its gotten very quiet out there except for all the squawking about the Pandemic.

I find it interesting … it’s like a ballon that has all the outside pressure removed so it inflates by itself. That’s how I have been feeling…

We have an ancient form (Kata) in my system that is called Seiunchin… it means to fake weakness and draw the opponent in… controlling him… so you can finish him off easily.

hummmmm. I never saw H5N1 in any of my classes but it sure seemed to have learned the lesson.

Texas Rose – at 00:08

Just because it hasn’t happened yet doesn’t mean it won’t. Nature works on her own schedule and her own timetable, not ours.

Bird Guano – at 00:15

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 22:35

Seriously, someone commented that some country was on holiday and thats got something to do with the quiet.


Same thing happened in Turkey during their outbreak. A single week holiday in the middle suppressed any news for weeks.

But the virus didn’t take a vacation.

It may be working for another 5–10 years. It’s already been 10 years since Hong Kong 1997.

Or it may be something completely out of the blue that’s not being tracked.

But statistically it will happen relatively soon. The only missing factor is how bad

Thordawggy – at 00:23

The media is just bored with it and all the political crap on both sides is heating up evem more. That’s all. Remember, the media runs this country, not any political parties or the people anymore. It is sad. But hey, lets just go back to watching Survivor and other mind numbing idiot shows including news shows which shout out which politician screwed minors (on both sides) or said the N word 30 years ago or who was a KKK member 40 years ago. Keep watch on WHO and the other sites that no one looks at to keep abreast of what is going on. Filter out the crap. I just worry about the sheeple who actually believe what they see on the boob tube and make their decisions from news sound bites or Oprah. I call them ‘Toobies’. Keep preppin’ and thinkin’!

worrywart – at 01:25

We gotta remember the bigger picture. A few years of waiting might seem like an eternity to us, but in the history of mankind, those few years a but a split second. everything is relative.

Goju – at 02:00

My Relatives aren’t prepping.

ColdClimatePrepperat 02:55

So no new confirmed cases for a couple of weeks, and you all think it gone? People’s PPF has gone down a few notches because things seem quiet for less than a month?!

Look at the overall story of this virus. It appears in 1997, then goes underground for several years, then pops up in 2003. Since then it has been expanding its range and host species exponentially. Within this greater trend, there have been ups and downs, more active periods and lulls. Remember this summer there was a long period of quiet too.

Unless this virus changes its behavior, which has been quite consistent for years, we should expect to see it pop up again somewhere, some time relatively soon, ie the next few months.

If we go a year without seeing H5N1 in people, and also see it being contained in poultry, then I’ll start to relax a bit, and suspect the virus has changed its trajectory.

We are all wound up so tight about this that two weeks without major news feels like a long time, but it just ain’t much time at all folks!

katherine – at 03:17

What could have happened to make it go away? Do you think it mutated to a harmless form in the last 17 days all over the world? The only way it will become harmless is after it takes out everyone who is able to survive it. After Hong Kong it seemed to go under ground for 3 years, but it was still out there. Let it come slowly so that more people are able to prepare.

Grace RN – at 04:20

We’ve grown so accustomed to ‘information now’ that we find out within one day if there is news of a fresh H5N1 case, or not.

Goju, this drat virus is on it’s own timetable. In 1918, per the book by John Barry, it went ‘underground’ ie no fresh cases then just exploded with massive numbers.

That’s what I think many of us are holding our breath-waiting for the second shoe to fall,so to speak.

Or, it may have just gone away. I don’t think so, but it sure doesn’t ask me for advice!

All we can do is wait, plan, teach others and prepare. And hope.

Commonground – at 06:32

I will never believe that there has not been any new cases since Ramadam began. I know there has. We just haven’t heard. The newspapers are going back to October 20th. That was the most current date. So everyone is on Holiday……but not H5N1. Then, we also had an article about 3 days ago, in the Indo Outbreak thread, speaking of Journalists being paid off to only report “positive, good news”. That really bummed me out.

uk bird – at 06:33

Summer last year was very quiet, this year, cases have continued to trickle in. I don’t know what the temperature is like in the critical areas but here it’s particularly mild, maybe that is having an effect. I won’t begin to relax until numbers stay static for the winter months.

It IS a good sign that the number of bird cases seem to have fallen but since I haven’t logged bird deaths I don’t know for sure what the pattern was last year.

Everybody seems more touchy because of a lack of news. Perhaps we need confirmation that we haven’t been wasting time, money and the patience of our loved ones? Certainly it’s impossible to get others motivated if there isn’t anything kicking off.

So I’m taking the time to be a little more chilled and I keep in mind that BF isn’t guaranteed. Thank God.

Malachi – at 07:32

Glaxo’s new commercial doesn’t give me the warm fuzzies.If it was much ado about nothing I wouldn’t expect that ad campaign.

Ruth – at 07:42

I just wonder how people could surpress a virus this has infected millions of poultry and birds on our planet. Do you really think that all those bird have died or have been killed? It could have mutated to a form that is more difficult for humans to catch, but I suspect there are still plenty of birds infected with bird flu. Given that, it continues to mutated.

LMWatBullRunat 08:32

Data-driven analysts, which are most of us are, like to see smooth trends. Reality is more jagged. I think the lack of case reporting can be attributed to one of three things;

- natural variation of infection;

- lack of reporting due to religious holidays;

- Lack of reporting due to political interference;

Pixie – at 10:20

Goju:

Your state just put up a new flu-ifo web site that advises its citizens to do nothing about preparing for a pandemic and says that they’ll letcha know if and when you should be worried about any such thing (and they’ll tell you what to do about it at that point, too!).

So yes, they apparently do know far more than we do and there is nothing to worry about.

Can this thread now switch over to discussing “Much Ado About Nothing,” as in the play by Shakespeare?

I like Shakespeare.

Pixie – at 10:22

Monotreme:

Please add the great state of Connecticut to your City Triage List. Thank you.

no name – at 10:40

I think the point of being prepared is we don’t have to “worry” about when “it” comes. We are ready.

It seems that egos are becoming attached to the fact “it” is coming and must come soon. We have extended ourselves with outside sources in an emphatic way and risk ridicule “if” it doesn’t happen.

Relaxing is a by product/reward of being prepared. Let’s enjoy and live without fear.

Newsie – at 10:40

Medical Maven, a “gresed chute to hell”? Wow, aren’t you optimistic. Remind me to stay the heck away from your lifeboat.

Goju – at 11:05

The CT panflu website is at best terriblly done and at worst a death sentence to our residents. It is not something I am pround of.

NW – at 11:16

I love this place and I love all you folks.

GOJU: “…So i ask… where’s the Pandemic?…”

Are you disappointed it has not arrived yet? Do you buy automobile insurance or fasten your seat belt expecting to get into a serious accident the next day? Do you buy health insurance expecting a fatal disease to strike quickly?

My point? Preparation is simply insurance against an unlikely event.

This forum has helped me prep but each day that goes by with everyone safe and sound is a good day. No disappoint ment here.

So instead of “Where’s the pandemic” How about “No pandemic! - cool” ??

JWB – at 11:33

Death takes a holiday.

Medical Maven – at 11:38

Newsie at 10:40-You would have a very good time in my “lifeboat”. I have enough red wine to float it and enough battery power (rechargeable and not) to run through my extensive jazz collection night and day. It might be the Titanic, but believe me, the band would keep playing.

Seeing things as they are does not eschew merriment.

Northstar – at 11:44

Pixie: Well, Much Ado is a tragi-comic drama, and I can’t think of a better match for this whole pan-flu mess.

KimTat 11:47

GoJu-no one in my family is prepping and my state; Iowa is doing nothing too. My office where I spend all of my waking hours is doing nothing and I talked with them and gave them good data. I thought a few of them might get it. Doesn’t make me feel all warm and fuzzy that my office will fold real quick in a pandemic because they are incapable of looking/planning ahead and seeing different perceptions of reality.

I had given up trying to inform those around me and your energy on the forum had me give it another shot—still didn’t work. But I am still preparing. Going to go look at wood stoves today, won’t get one yet but the process is there and walgreens has water on sale—I’ll drink it regardless.

Tom DVM – at 12:14

Newsie. To get in Medical Mavens lifeboat, you are going to have to push me out first. /:0)

LauraBat 12:21

ALl I know is whenever I start to relax a bit and start to question my sanity, something flares up. It happened with both Indo. outbreaks in May and August. I literally had just been saying to myself “we have A LOT of stuff. We might not need it. Nothing has happened…” Then BOOM - a few days later H5N1 does something unexpected.

I would LOVE to be proven wrong and have all my friends and family say “told you so.” Problem is, we have no way of knowing for certain. And beleive me I wish we did know - If I knew for certain it WILL happen, I’d crank things up, start screaming at the top of my lungs to get others to prep, etc. If I knew for certain it WILL NOT happen, I’d eat away at my preps but keep a certain level of suplies ready for any thing life may throw my way. As a former statistician, I dealt in probablities all the time. H5N1 has numbers I am not comfortable with. In the absence of any solid data directing me one way or the other, I’ll err on the side of caution for now.

Goju – at 12:30

How closely is your ego and identity tied up with Panflu?

If it doesnt happen, Do you become less?

I know i have been seeing the whole world through a pandemic filter for over a year. I do admit that i have some identity connected to it. It has been an obsession.

LauraBat 12:50

If it doesn’t happen, will I feel the fool? Perhaps some. Humbled a bit that my empotions took over the more logical side of me. But better that then going around telling other people “I told you this would happen.” And overall I no regrets about what I have done. I honestly don’t loose sleep over it (don’t even dream about it) and prepping has not taken up a signficant portion of my life. It has found a spot to fit into it comfortably without disrupting the rest.

crfullmoon – at 12:56

This is partly why officials claim they can’t warn the public; if it doens’t happen right away they won’t believe us. Still doesn’t mean the risk has gone anywhere.

Interesting to watch adjustment reactions progress and change for people.

So many reasons people should be prepared; won’t hurt to be concerned enough to get prepared. We sure know we’re screwed in a pandemic year, so, we have to become more self-reliant. Will help cover smaller personal emergencies; people are on thin ice every day.

H5N1 owns a lot of live real estate. There are other problems lurking in the wings.

Sure doesn’t help us, that we want the public to know, and too many officials are so busy keeping them un-panicked (not taking any precautions they haven’t been told to take) that the public would rather believe the disingenuous reassurances.

InKyat 13:00

Whether or when H5N1 mutates to become a pandemic strain is no more in our control than a coin toss. All we can do is acknowledge probabilities and act upon what we know. We are not unwise to have done so even if H5N1 does not become the next pandemic flu strain. We’re merely acting as if we know that a coin toss can come up either heads or tails and not just heads all the time just because that’s the way we want it.

LauraBat 13:02

It’s also the main reason there isn’t enough media coverage or people paying attention to it. There has been some coverage but nothing has happened, so editors and citizens alike think it really was “much ado about nothing.”

crfullmoon – at 13:08

;-) This deserves a repeat; Craig wrote : I’ve been working on some lyrics. (Crediting Bobby McFerrin with the “Don’t worry, be happy” theme, of course.)

You should listen to us, ‘cause we’re the WHO

and we’ll tell you everything about the flu.

So all you people across the land,

just keep your head way down in the sand.

Don’t worry, be happy. Don’t worry, be happy.

The virus is a changin’ all the time towards a pandemic it’s making its climb. It’s H to H but we don’t want you to think that we’re anywhere closer to the brink.

Don’t worry, be happy. Don’t worry, be happy. So all you people across the land, just keep your head way down in the sand. Don’t worry, be happy. Don’t worry, be happy.

We’re stickin’ to the plan, stickin’ to Stage III

so you just keep up with your spendin’ spree.

We are gettin’ rid of stages IV and V;

you’d just be confused by all that jive.

Don’t worry, be happy. Don’t worry, be happy.

They’re now in Siberia checkin’ on their plan but thankfully its beyond your attention span. Oh the birds this fall will be headin’ south, but you’ll be just fine; just don’t kiss ‘em on the mouth!

Don’t worry, be happy. Don’t worry, be happy. So all you people across the land, just keep your head way down in the sand. Don’t worry, be happy. Don’t worry, be happy.

Those preppers they are a worrisome bunch how dare they operate on their hunch? (I do admit, though, that in a crunch they might be the only ones with a lunch.)

Don’t worry, be happy. Don’t worry, be happy.

Two weeks of food is all you need! (But to be safe don’t forget the seeds.) We’ll all pull together to meet this fate! (Lets just ignore the current CFR rate.)

Don’t worry, be happy. Don’t worry, be happy. So all you people across the land, just keep your head way down in the sand. Don’t worry, be happy. Don’t worry, be happy.

And when it hits we’ll claim dismay

who could have foreseen such a viral display?

Surviving the pandemic I hope I may,

but sad to say, we’ll find out some day.

Don’t worry, be happy. Don’t worry, be happy. So all you people across the land, just keep your head way down in the sand. Don’t worry, be happy. Don’t worry, be happy.

You’ll want to line up for a pill or a shot

but it will be resistant to all we’ve got.

You’ll ask us in the winter where is the vaccine?

It won’t be here ‘til next Halloween.

Don’t worry, be happy. Don’t worry, be happy.

Life will come to a standing still,

from this point on its all downhill.

Maybe we’ll stop this song right here

so we don’t install a sense of fear.

Don’t worry, be happy. Don’t worry, be happy. So all you people across the land, just keep your head way down in the sand. Don’t worry, be happy. Don’t worry, be happy. “

Pixie – at 13:09

LauraB - I was astonished at the blandness of the CT flu site. There is no reason on earth why they could not have simply produced an “all hazards” site considering our proximity to NYC, the number of Fortune 100 companies headquartered here, threat of regular-old and bio-terrorism, the fact that we do endure some whopper storms over three several seasons here. There needen’t even be any reason for our officials to concentrate on H5N1 in order to produce a useful and informative web guide that could get our citizens better prepared for any emergency. Instead, it is almost as if they want to intentionally lull the public into complacency.

And I swear those people could not have attended the same pandemic flu conference that I attended. We must have stunt doubles for the governor and our top officials.

LauraBat 13:15

I am not at all surprised at what a joke the whole thing is - it reminds me of when I worked for big corporations and we’d have to go to a two-day long “Customer Satisfaction” seminar. In the end you’d leave with a nice big notebook full of pretty charts and diagrams, but nothing actionable. It just was a nice break from the usual office routine. The longer I live here the more I find that the state is full of lots of plain old vanilla types, not the hearty NE-types of VT or NH. Too many people wrapped up in making money (at least in Fairfield County). And it’s refelcted in our bland politicians. Time for us to move back to Berkely, or better yet, Seattle. They at least do have a clue there.

Commonground – at 13:45

If Panflu doesn’t happen….I ditto Inky at 13:00. I stopped passing along information months ago. When I received no acknowledgement or thanks from anyone I was taking the time out to inform. Was it Nabarro that said “Good Luck with that”. That’s my motto.

DennisCat 14:07

Commonground – at 13:45 as it is said: When the student is ready the teacher will appear.

until they are ready to listen all the shouting will be for nothing. It is sad, but until a few hundred die somewhere, people will not take notice.

James in MT – at 15:46

Each needs to prepare as they see fit. As far as all the emotional ups and downs, I would say “get used to it.” My personal intuitive SWAG “Scientific Wild Ass Guess” is December 2008 for the efficient H2H2H transmission. Expect a lot of flare ups and different size clusters, get ready for the rollercoaster ride of your life. I was really expecting it in October - December 2005. (So what do I know?)Got over it being immenent. I am planning for a civilization buster two years from now. What are you all prepping for?

DennisCat 16:38

James in MT – at 15:46 What are you all prepping for?

Again, my crank on my crystal ball is broken and the sun isn’t out for my solar crystal ball….. but

I was figuring on TSHTF around Feb-Mar 07. But I don’t think it will be a civilization buster- at least not to the US,EU (but possibly for India, China, Africa)

 -More like just somewhere between 2% and 10% overall death rate. 

Rotating power outages, sporadic supplies, school/church/sports closings Cities above a million or so will be “basket cases”.

LDC’s (less developed countries) will have higher death rates

 Large developed countries rushing around with partially protective vaccines but not being able to distribute things to small countries (due to country quarantine, no enough health workers that can/will travel, citizens hiding at home..)

There will be needs to take care of the orphan children. Work programs aimed at helping agriculture, more out of the office and at home, less travel. Countries will become “isolationists”. Scientific research will be aimed at health related issues and environment and little or no spending in the “physical sciences”- People, that can, will move away from cities and the coasts. Politically people will become more “conservative” but with a socialistic view. The social security system will be in shambles since there will not be as many young people to support the old as they even estimate now. There will be a national sales tax since there will be more bartering than income.

China will be in disarray. Africa will have lots of small “tribal” governments. The US, Canada, and EU will survive mostly intact but will be busy taking care of their own and doing little world wide charity or “police work”.

But again what do I know……? It is hard to think clearly with this tin foil hat on.

lugon – at 17:40

looking for something to do? read http://www.worldchanging.com/book

James in MT – at 17:58

DennisC, thank you for sharing a part of yourself. If this is a holographic universe, then each of us is like a single fractal that sees but a part of the picture. The world as seen through the eyes of one unique individual. That is cool, you were willing to put it out there for all to see.

Personally, I am prepping for the long haul. Hoping to be there in time. In my equation I have two more years to prepare and at this rate I will need all of it. Don’t have enough Heirloom Seeds yet. Don’t have an excellent wood burning cook stove yet, or a cabin to put it in. Maybe my wife and I will meet other like minded people and negotiate a PSG, as Dr. Woodson suggests. Perhaps others we meet, will have many of the things we don’t have, and what we have fills in some of what they missed.

Yes, if we head to hills when we can, to the best of our ability, we will be more apt to meet others who are doing the same thing. At the very least make a non-agression pact and a mutual aid pact. Keep it loose, yet present a united front.

DennisCat 18:31

James in MT – at 17:58

Yes, I headed to these hills about 14 years ago. I figured that as all the baby boomers retired they would still have dreams of being self sufficient and have a cabin in the woods (remember back in the 60′s and all the talk). Most will never do it but I figured the property values “in the hills” would go up faster than the average city. So far prices here have doubled or tripled in the last 14 years so my guess is about right (compared to where I was).

I hope you are right and you have 2 years. I think it will be less (Egypt may endup looking like Turkey did this spring- if you believe Niman’s sequence data). But I am hoping all my predictions are wrong and nothing ever happens in my lifetime. Today I place the oddes at 20% or so of it happening by late spring. - But we are all just guessing. I am only looking at historical trends and know flu’s normal mutation rate. It reminds me of “Wargames” the movie when the computer is trying to guess the launch codes. The virus is just running through millions of combinations day and night all over the world as I type.

Instead of seeds, I have been planting perenial (native or almost native) plants out in “my woods”. That way there is no garden that anyone can target. Nut trees take years to yield. If you haven’t gotten you cabin yet, make sure it has water. You can snuggle up on cold night but without water ans a septic tank you will really be in trouble.

James in MT – at 19:49

It would seem that a pandemic is one way to change the world. I don’t see how the powers that be will surender their power back to the people, unless there is a civilization busting event.

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.MuchAdoAboutNothing
Page last modified on October 28, 2006, at 07:49 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Seeds

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Seeds

24 October 2006

Walrus – at 19:24

Being a Southern Hemisphere Walrus(!) I’m putting in my garden right now - Tomatos, Chillis, Pumpkin, Cucumber, eggplant, Sweetcorn and so on. I’ve got potatos growing like weeds.

It suddenly struck me that seeds are a cheap but vital part of prepping. It also struck me that if TSHTF the amount of preps that are needed are enough to guarantee a food supply is pretty much a year, depending on the season when a pandemic struck.

I had a copy of a book, first published here in 1942, that explained in very simple terms, how to grow vegetables, how to lay out a vegetable garden, and what to plant and when - it was based on the needs of a family of four and it was designed to help people grow their own food to help the war effort.

I had the last edition, published in 1968, before the government discontinued it, in favor of all sorts of “commercial” books, which often push certain brands of fertilizer and seeds.

Back in 1999 I actually built their recommended garden. I ran it for three years until divorce settlements robbed me of the land. It was highly therapeutic, growing your own vegetables, and I recommend it to anyone who gets stressed. My office staff also benefited because it really did produce the goods.

You basically need a garden about forty feet by sixty feet, broken up into beds no more than three feet wide, at least in my climate.

I’m trying to find my book and add it to my preps box, along with a stack of seeds - including a few flowers. Be sure to use “seed savers” type seeds - which have seed that can be harvested.

new name – at 20:13

I agree, Walrus

I recently bought lots of different veggie seeds and plan on using them next year and then keeping a stock of them for the next year. I even found some potato seeds; not seed potatos but actual potato seeds. Something I never knew existed before.

Now if I could only get someone besides me to get the garden ready for next spring.

no name – at 20:30

Consider “heritage” seeds, grown from old stock, non-hybrid, plants produces seeds that produce plants…hybrids(sp) do not.

new name – at 20:51

No Name, That is what I tried to buy… only heirloom seeds. Couldn’t find all veggies in heirloom but most of them are. Now, how to do save seeds from these plants next year? I guess Tomatos would be easy but where are the seeds from plants like celery, corn, peas, beets,etc.?

Delete Thread Porn JWB – at 20:52

Walrus – at 19:24

I love books and seeds and gardening. Do you remember the name of the book?

Thanks in advance regardless of your memory! ;-)

JWB – at 20:54

Sorry. I forgot to fix my cookie. Don’t delete.

no name – at 21:13

new name @20:51 Victory Seeds is where I purchased my heirloom seeds. (no interest) They have an extensive website with articles dealing with “how to’s”. I found their service prompt and accurate.

Books on the french method of gardening were very helpful for preparation of soil, crop rotation and production. The premise is you grow everything on 4 ft squares of soil staggering the plant so the garden produces throughout the season. Mostly organic point of view.

no name – at 21:22

new name @ 20:54

To produce seeds the plant must mature past the point of consumption and flower. Then the seed will become evident. Some plant require pollination (transfer of pollen from male to female plant via wind, bees ect.) to produce seeds others are self pollinating.

CAMikeat 21:49

As mentioned above, in order to get viable seeds, your best bet is Heirlooms or older commercial varieties. I don’t have experience with the newer hybrids but I would not be surprised if they did not produce viable seeds.

As to specific plants: Celery: no clue. Do not harvest a few plants and see what happens. They should eventually flower and go to seed.

Pod plants like peas and beans: Select a few plants and pick the pods to eat. Once the plants have a sufficient number of pods/flowers then stop picking and wait for the pods to dry. Try to keep these pods from getting wet. Harvest the other plants for as long as you can.

Root veggies like radishes, turnips, beets and onions: don’t pick a few plants. They will eventually flower and go to seed. For onions you can also leave them in the ground (depending on the severity of the winter). Before the first frost knock over the greens and cover with hay or grass. You won’t get more onions but they will be bigger.

Tomatoes: easy, pick when ripe. Scoop out seeds and let dry on paper towels.

Corn: Never tried this but again do not pick a few ears and let the husk dry on the plant. Most recent corn varieties are hybrids so I have no idea if the kernels will be viable. Your best bet is heirloom varieties.

Potatoes: again I have never tried this but if your growing season is sufficiently long the plants will flower and seed. Having said that, there is an easier way. Set aside some potatoes. When it is time to plant cut out the eyes from the potatoes and plant them. Leave a good chunk of potatoe with the eye. I have tried this a few times and had luck about 50% of the time.

For all of the above, store in a cool, dark dry place.

Mike

25 October 2006

newore – at 00:26

check out “Seed to Seed” by Suzanne Ashworth - ‘Seed Saving and Growing Techniques for vegetable gardeners’

look at the website seedsavers.org

CAMikeat 11:10

Newore at 00:26.

Thanks for the link. I have a question for you or anyone else that might know the answer.

About 15 years ago I dealt with an organization that was dedicated to preserving heirlooms. They would send you seeds and the recipient would plant them and send back seeds. It was a dispersed seed bank. They had guidelines on how many and how far to plant to avoid cross-contamination. I cannot remember the name of the organization. Amy one know what org I am talking about?

Thanks, Mike

Jane – at 11:21

For tomatoes, websites said to put seeds in a little bowl of water, cover, set in warm place, and let ferment a few days, then rinse off the viscous stuff surrounding the seeds (stinky by then) and let seeds dry on plate. Stir to turn seeds now and then. (I think if you use a paper towel, the seeds are so small that they are hard to remove from the paper.) I did this with a few tomatoes this year.

mcjohnston92 – at 12:28

CAMike at 11:10

Your organization in question is Seed Saver’s exchange. They have a web presence.

newore – at 14:18

seed savers exchange is at the seedsavers.org link above

newore – at 14:33

also of interest…

an index page of organic, open pollinated resources at organic consumers organize by state.

nativeseeds.org good for beans and peppers

EOD – at 19:06

Folks, thanks for the info on seed savers! I have a large package of heirloom seeds from Y2K prep but not sure how viable they still are. There were suposed to be packaged for storage and I have handled them properly (cool, dry, dark). Does anyone know how long such should last?

InKyat 19:16

EOD - I’d replace the seed if you haven’t been storing it in a frost-free freezer, just to be on the safe side.

crfullmoon – at 19:24

EOD, depends on what kind -probably still good to try.(They ain’t gettin’ any younger!) Some are good for years, properly stored. (Parsnip seed, doesn’t keep long, only short storage one I can think of, just now)

See if your library has “Seed to Seed” by Suzanne Ashworth.

Oh, or this one: “Heirloom Vegetable Gardening: A Master Gardener’s Guide to Planting, Seed Saving, and Cultural History” by William Woys Weaver. (If the libary doesn’t have them, try suggesting these go on their wish list!)

LMWatbullRunat 21:33

Good tips one and all. Had been meaning to buy some more recent seeds and was glad to get reminded about this.

Anon_451 – at 22:00

LMWatbullRun – at 21:33 Could you be so kind and check out this site and tell me if you feel the prices are about right.

http://www.heirloomseeds.com/victory.html

Thank you very much

26 October 2006

anonymous – at 14:31

They found grain seeds in an Egyptian tomb sealed for 3000 years and planted them and they grew.

LMWatBullRunat 17:17

Anon_451

A lot depends on how many seeds you get for that price. I did not check the volume of the packets to see whether they were comparable to the Victory seed site. IF they are then this looks to be a good deal. Will look later tonight to see.

Anon_451 – at 19:34

LMWatBullRun – at 17:17 Thank you for your response. Could you post the Victory Seed Site? I really liked the fact that these guys package a set up for storage for at least 3 years, but the combination of seeds was not exactly what I was looking for. I guess I could buy the ones I want and vacuum seal them, but not sure about how well they would hold.

Any advice on this would be great as the ones I have are set to expire in March and would like to get a longer term set up going.

LMWatbullRunat 20:15

Victory Seeds site is here

http://www.victoryseeds.com/

I bought the prepackaged victory garden from Victory Seeds them along with quite a few other alternate packages including tobacco which is a very good natural insecticide.

If you were going to be really hardcore, I’d get a small bottle of nitrogen and put your seeds in a sealed durable container (mason jar and canning lid) with some dessicant pacs and I’d flood the jar with nitrogen gas then vacuum seal it. (not much vacuum just a psi or so) Keep seeds cold and in the dark. You could also use the oxygen absorbers Walton Feed sells to do the same thing if you have those.

Looked at both websites and it looks like the Heirloom place is about the same as the Victory Websiste; more on some things slightly less on others. You’d need to do a detailed analysis to see where the absolute best price was…. I was impressed by the information available on the Victory website, though. I may just get some seeds from the Heirloom place too and put em in the freezer for a rainy decade….. One of the few nice things about a long skinny parcel of land is that I can plant different varieties of things at each end and not worry so much ab out cross pollination, especially since the winds are so different from one end to the other.

It looks as though they both had a lot of the same plants.

mosaic – at 21:06

You do not have to buy only heirloom seeds to be able to save seed from year to year. Any normally ‘open pollinated’ variety will work. Hybrid seeds of most veggie crops will indeed produce seed that is viable, it just wont produce offspring true to type. To know which is a hybrid seed, just look on the seed packet or in the seed description in the catalog for the word ‘hybrid’ or ‘F1′ If that word is not there, its not hybrid seed.

Hybrid seed can frequently produce more, disease resistant produce than heirlooms. Around here they are the best choice for tomatoes.

There also can be a lot of natural hybridization that can occur in your own garden. The bees dont care what flowers they visit nor in what order. If you grow several varieties of peppers or squash for example, you will get natural hybrids no matter what the seed source was. Still perfectly fine to eat.

Most present day cultivars of peas and beans are not hybrids to begin with, tend to be self-crossing, and you can save their seed from year to year, heirloom or not, with little variation over time.

LMWatBullRunat 21:19

Mosaic-

I am not expert in this area, but your approach would seem to require a new source of seed every year, no? I not only want to plant for this year coming up but also to get varieties that breed true and can be conserved for years.

27 October 2006

CAMikeat 19:03

Thanks for all the information folks. I guess I need to delve deeper into the Seed Savers site.

In regards to viability of seeds (Heirloom or otherwise), I would recommend giving them a try. Partly to maintain a source of viable seeds and also to see how well the plants will do in your area. There would be nothing worse then to have viable seeds, that you are counting on, that sprout but are not productive due to local growing conditions. I learned this the hard way.

Mike

Urdar-Norway – at 19:28

last year a got a handfull of “horse beans or “pesant beans” they are large and flat, I know they have been grovn in Norway (quite cold climate) in the old days and I read that they are just as nutritius as soybeans, I put them in the ground and some months later I had more of them :D my point is that all preppers have a lot off seeds, the beans and the peas.. (but not the canned one ! stupid ;-D

Anyone with more experience on using the regular dry beans and peas for gardens? Are they in any evil way less productive than “seeds from the shop”?

28 October 2006

Dragonlady – at 08:03

My family regularly plants beans from the grocery store. This year we planted 12 black beans in Michigan and got approx 3 pounds of dry black beans from the plants. Not too shabby considering that these were the ones that fell on the floor as we were sorting them.

We’ve also had luck with peas (not split), Great Northern and Navy. The pinto beans never came up so we might have been using an old beans.

We haven’t bought peas in years, just save a few dried ones from the spring planting for the fall planting (got to love cold weather plants) and then save a few from the fall planting for the spring.

We don’t have a compost pile per say, we just toss the plant material back into the garden and till it under. Every year we get tomato, squash and potato plants that “volunteer” to grow and produce for us. This year we didn’t plant any squash and had so many “volunteers” that we were giving squash away as there is no way our family could possibly eat everything produced.

Malachi – at 08:07

I can verify that!!! I have a box of squash to prove it!!!Hi Dragonlady :)

mosaic – at 16:36

LMWatBullRun – at 21:19, oct 26. “Mosaic, am not expert in this area, but your approach would seem to require a new source of seed every year, no? I not only want to plant for this year coming up but also to get varieties that breed true and can be conserved for years.”

No, not at all. I save seed every year from plants I know to breed true such as beans and peas. Plants such as peppers that are not from hybrid seeds, and that will breed true, but cross-pollinate if there are other varieties of peppers nearby, I will either plant only one variety, or plant different varieties as far apart as possible. Or accept the hybrid (mixed) off-spring. Not always so pleasant when you grow really hot ones too. ;-)

Lettuce is another crop that does not out-cross easily and you can harvest seed from year to year no matter how many varieties you grow at the same time. They rarely naturally hybridize, like peas, beans, and tomatoes.

With respect to tomatoes, I do prefer to grow hybrids here, but I also have a seed of non-hybrids too. Non hybrid tomatoes also breed true with little outcrossing. But even if natural hybrids are formed, the fruit can be very good too. In fact, with tomatoes, you can slowly select for varities that do well in your own area. If you have limited seed, you can also easily start more tomato plants from cuttings.

Corn for example can be purchased either as hybrid or non-hybrid seed. For planting every year from home-harvested seed, get the non-hybrid. But also grow only one variety at a time, or you will end up with a mix the next generation. Or stagger planting times so they won’t be blooming at the same time and hence cross.

Also if you have seed and store it properly, (cool and dry) some can remain viable for years. Do a search for viability of vegetable seeds to get an idea. Some last longer than others.

I’ve also grown beans from the bags of dry beans in the store. Black beans and limas. Fun.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Pandemic Conferences November

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Pandemic Conferences November

28 October 2006

Jane – at 14:13

I posted this on the news thread also. American Public Health Association conference in Boston, Nov. 4–8. Their schedule of lectures is posted here. There’s quite a bit on pandemic. Attendees must be members or journalists with a registration badge. Abstracts are on their site, the article says. http://www.apha.org/meetings [This session looks really good-<snip> 5091.0 Pandemic Influenza: Non-Pharmacologic Interventions Wednesday, Nov. 8, from 10:30 a.m. to 12 p.m. Featured presentations: — From SARS and bioterrorism to pandemic flu, new tools and old medicine: Non-pharmaceutical interventions as a way to protect ourselves against contagious disease; David Heyman — Ethical issues with pandemic flu; Robert J. Levine, MD — Community engagement; Donna L. Richter, EdD, FAAHB <snip>] [And this - 3303.0 Experiences and Exercises in Responding to Epidemics and Bioterror Events Monday, Nov. 6, from 2:30 p.m. to 4 p.m. Featured presentations: — Pandemic influenza functional exercise — New Hampshire, 2005; Rachel Plotinsky, MD, Elizabeth A. Talbot, MD, Mary Ann Cooney, RN, Jose Montero, MD — Avian overture: How pandemic training builds public health and safety partnerships; Mary Clark, JD, MPH, Kerry Dunnell, MSW, Garrett W. Simonsen, MSPS 3310.0 Planning for Pandemic Influenza: Local, State, Tribal and Federal Perspectives Monday, Nov. 6, from 2:30 p.m. to 4 p.m. Featured presentations: — Planning for Pandemic Influenza: Federal Perspective; Pascale Wortley, MD, MPH — Planning for Pandemic Influenza: State Perspective; Paul Lewis — Planning for Pandemic Influenza: Local Perspective; Paul Etkind, DrPH, MPH — Planning for Pandemic Influenza: A Tribal Perspective; Jim Roberts] http://releases.usnewswire.com/GetRelease.asp?id=75087

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Page last modified on October 28, 2006, at 02:13 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Pressure Cooker Questions

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Pressure Cooker Questions

22 October 2006

NWF gal – at 15:49

Is there a difference between a pressure cooker and a pressure canner?

Can you use a pressure cooker on a gas grill?

Northstar – at 16:02

NWF gal, you can cook in a canner but you can’t necessarily can in a cooker. (s) Often, you can do both, but as cookers tend to be smaller, they can’t do much at a time. Read the box carefully to see if your cooker can can. (What a funny image that evokes!)

As to your second question, I don’t know. I personally would do if it I didn’t have other options.

cactus – at 16:26
  I don`t see whu you couldn`t use a gas grill. I`ve used mine to cook over a campfire.You just need to be able to keep the heat low once you get the weight jiggling.
shadddup – at 21:12

Along with what the others said, here’s a little more information…

There may be some manufacturers that state their brand of pressure cooker is acceptable for use as a pressure canner, but most canning experts will tell you not to use a regular pressure cooker for pressure canning purposes. The pressure cooker can however, be used for batches of water bath canning.

Pressure cookers are NOT recommended for pressure canning because a fully loaded canner, that is specifically a pressure canner, takes a longer time for heating and cooling than a pressure cooker does. Pressure cookers have less metal, are smaller in diameter and use less water than traditional pressure canners. Bringing the pressure up, and depressurizing the canner in pressure cookers takes less time than in the pressure canners. The *up* and *down* pressure times are part of the TOTAL processing time that is scientifically established for margins of safety. These time tables are laid out for the dynamics of how the pressure canners are built, not for the pressure cookers. The smaller pressure cookers have smaller loads, and this causes them to heat and cool quicker than a pressure canner. This causes problems with accurate timing, which in turn (IMNSHO) produces an inferior and unsafe product.

Anyway, just a little more detail as to exactly why a cooker is not advisable vs. a canner.

Shad.

no name – at 22:27

Shad

If I have a canner I can cook in it. Correct?

Thanks.

shadddup – at 22:37

Yes…there’s no reason that I can think of at least, that would prohibit you from cooking in your pressure canner.

Shad.

25 October 2006

Madamspinner – at 07:10

You sure can---cook in a pressure canner. Before I got my giant stock pots; I always cooked in one pressure canner while I was canning in the other. I had a double canner at the time, and that was the only way I could keep up ! LOL !

slainte – at 16:18

When someone is sick; chicken soup only takes 20 minutes to cook, once it comes to pressure. I sometimes feel like it’s cheating but it sure cuts down on the time.

Northstar – at 22:09

Aldi’s is running a stainless steel pressure cooker on sale now (10/25/06) for $35. A comparable one at Kmart costs $50, at Ace, $55. I got 2, one for a gift, and will let you all know if it’s as good as cracked up to be. (I don’t cook in my beloved All-American 921. What, get it dirty? My preciousssssssss….)

28 October 2006

Northstar – at 09:59

Reporting back on the Aldi pressure cooker: Amazing! It’s one of those “How did I get by without it?” kind of things. I’ve done soups and vegetables in it, and a mix of carrots and potatoes was literally done in 3 minutes, before the meatloaf cooled.

If cooking fuel is an issue it will be invaluable. Of course, if cooking fuel is an issue there probably won’t be much in the way of fresh food to cook. There’s always possum stew I suppose! ;-}

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / News Reports for October 27

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: News Reports for October 27

27 October 2006

AnnieBat 00:39

Summary from Indonesia Outbreak as at 26 October 2006

Cases DiscussedJun-06Jul-06Aug-06Sep-06Oct-06Total
Died, no tests2243415
Died, tested positive4323315
Other tested positive013105
Suspected symptoms42463827117
Tested negative062619758
Totals1014816441210

Lookout Posts – here are the links

Please visit these threads for latest information from these regions

(Please see the thread Volunteers Needed as Lookouts Worldwide if you want to help)


Summary of News for 26 October 2006

(From WHO as at 16 Oct - latest update) Total human cases worldwide 256, deaths 151 (2006 – 109 with 73 deaths)
(If you want the links to open in a new window, hold down the shift key and then click on the link)

Canada

China

India

Indonesia

Ireland

South Africa

Sudan

United States of America

General

Link to news thread for 26 October (link News Reports for October 26 )
(Usual disclaimer about may not have captured everything. Feel free to add your own where omissions have occurred.)
Please note that I copy the links directly from the thread so if they don’t work you may need to re-visit the Thread.

Blue Ridge Mountain Mom – at 02:02

Study Questions Value of Flu Shots

By Amanda Gardner HealthDay Reporter

Thu Oct 26, 7:04 PM ET

THURSDAY, Oct. 26 (HealthDay News) — The flu vaccine is much ado about nothing, according to a new study that contends the annual shots aren’t as effective as billed.

“We’ve got an exaggerated expectation of what vaccines can actually do,” said study author Dr. Tom Jefferson, coordinator of the Cochrane Vaccines Field in Rome, Italy. “I’m hoping American and European taxpayers will be alerted and will start asking questions…..

http://tinyurl.com/ybbx8y

Leo7 – at 02:24

U.S. expecting more low-pathogenic bird flu Thu Oct 26, 2006 9:59pm ET WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. government said on Thursday additional tests of ducks in Ohio showed the birds did not have a low-pathogenic strain of the H5N1 virus, but warned new cases of bird flu would be found in the coming months in the United States as more tests are conducted.

Preliminary tests had detected a strain of the H5N1 virus in “apparently healthy” wild birds sampled October 8 in Ottawa County, located on Lake Erie about 15 miles southeast of Toledo. Additional tests showed that no virus was present.

http://tinyurl.com/ykc5m4

Blue Ridge Mountain Mom – at 02:30

Studies show global warming increase incidences of respiratory diseases

EARTH TALK From the Editors of E/The Environmental Magazine

Climate change accelerates the spread of disease primarily because warmer global temperatures enlarge the geographic range in which disease-carrying animals, insects and microorganisms — as well as the germs and viruses they carry — can survive. Analysts believe that, as a result of global temperature rises, diseases that were previously limited only to tropical areas may show up increasingly in other, previously cooler areas.

For example, mosquitoes carrying dengue fever used to dwell at elevations no higher than 3,300 feet, but because of warmer temperatures, they have recently been detected at 7,200 feet in Colombia’s Andes Mountains. And biologists have found malaria-carrying mosquitoes at higher-than-usual elevations in Indonesia in just the last few years. These changes happen not because of the kinds of extreme heat we’ve experienced in recent months, but occur even with minuscule increases in average temperature.

<snip>

Bird flu is another example of a disease that is likely to spread more quickly as the Earth warms up, but for a different reason: A United Nations study found that global warming — in concert with excessive development — is contributing to an increased loss of wetlands around the world. This trend is already forcing disease-carrying migrating birds, who ordinarily seek out wetlands as stopping points, to instead land on animal farms where they mingle with domestic poultry, risking the spread of the disease via animal-to-human and human-to-human contact….

http://tinyurl.com/ykn3op

Leo7 – at 02:32

Thursday, Oct. 26, 2006

More Mud-Slinging in W.H.O. Election The knives are now out for Dr. Julio Frenk, Mexico’s candidate for director general of the World Health Organization. Earlier this week, the Wall Street Journal reported that some anti-smoking activists are attacking Dr. Frenk for a deal he made as Minister of Health of Mexico to use tobacco company money to fund health programs.

http://tinyurl.com/wogg8

Leo7 – at 02:49

this article worth the read from the NIH:

New Study Has Important Implications for Influenza Surveillance

Vaccine Formulation Research Provides New Insights into Evolution of Flu Virus

Researchers are reporting results of a study that substantially alters the existing understanding of how the influenza virus evolves and that could have important implications for monitoring changes to the virus and predicting which strains should be used for flu vaccine. The study, which will be published in the online journal Biology Direct Oct. 26, 2006, was conducted by researchers from the National Library of Medicine’s National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI) and Fogarty International Center , both part of the National Institutes of Health.

The analysis revealed a picture of flu evolution that was surprisingly different from the prevailing conception of how the virus changes. Evolution of influenza A virus is commonly viewed as a typical Darwinian process. In this mode of evolution, the virus’ main surface protein, hemagglutinin (HA), is thought to continually change to evade human immune response, resulting in new dominant strains that eliminate all competitors in a series of rapid successions. Unexpectedly, however, the study found that the periods of intense Darwinian selection accounted for only a relatively small portion of H3N2 flu evolution during the ten-year period examined.

The study found that much of the time the H3N2 virus seemed to be “in stasis”; that is, the HA gene showed no significant excess of mutations in the antigenic regions (those recognized by the immune system). During these stasis periods, none of the co-circulating strains is significantly more fit than others, apparently because multiple mutations are required to substantially improve the virus’ ability to evade the immune system. As a result, an increased variety of strains accumulates. Ultimately, however, one of the variants will come within one mutation of achieving higher fitness and becoming dominant. Once the crucial last mutation does occur, virus evolution shifts from stasis to a brief interval of rapid Darwinian evolution, where the new dominant virus rapidly sweeps through the human population and eliminates most other variants.

http://tinyurl.com/y6hqkq

lugon – at 03:45

Leo7 – at 02:49 commentary This looks like “fractal evolution” or “micropandemics”. There was this theory that joined together the largest war with smaller wars, local conflicts and even a single murder. Single murders would happen most frequently, then higher degree “conflicts” happen with less frequency and so on. So they somehow determined the probability, for a given period, of an all-out war.

The basic idea was that the probability was related to size, so bigger ones were less frequent according to some power-law. (Not that I know the details at all.)

So even without knowing the precise virus or bug, someone might want to look at the same thing regarding epidemics, and look into the likelihood (starting with whatever assumptions, and if there’s a probability curve that fits available data), over a long period of time and without getting into “Monday morning” specific theories, of a “really big one”.

It wouldn’t change what we’re doing. And I don’t think it would change what anyone else is doing.

AnnieBat 06:45

Bird flu fears back with cold weather Oct 27 2006

COOLER weather could mean a return of the bird flu threat to Britain. That was the warning this week from Windsor and Maidenhead Borough Council’s trading standards manager Steve Johnson, whose staff will have to deal with the crisis if any affected birds are found within his patch.

He said: “With the arrival of cooler weather, thousands of birds are starting their annual migration to warmer climates and the threat of avian influenza or bird flu is back in the public eye. “Should there be an outbreak in the borough, we have plans to work with DEFRA (Department for the Environment, Farming and Rural Affairs) to make sure the disease is controlled and eradicated as soon as possible. <snip> “

Steve said that anyone spotting dead wild gulls, waders, ducks, geese or swans, or more than ten dead birds from other species in the same place should contact the helpline <snip> If the disease is found people are being told that pet birds will not be affected, provided owners take steps to ensure that no wild bird droppings get into the house.Cat and dog owners might be asked to keep their pets inside or on a lead.

link http://tinyurl.com/u8awg

AnnieBat 06:48

(UK) Wild bird trade ban ‘should stay’

A temporary ban on importing wild birds into the UK to prevent the spread of bird flu should remain in place, conservationists have said. The Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB) claims the ban has saved hundreds of thousands of exotic birds from death or a life in captivity.

It was imposed when imported birds died from the H5N1 strain of bird flu while in quarantine in Essex in October 2005.

The RSPB says it now fears the ban could be lifted. … More at http://tinyurl.com/y8hbn4

Goju – at 08:12

Reported on Flutrackers by Theresa42

Google-translated from Arabic:

Panic Bank of avian flu outbreaks Oct 26, 2006

There is a state of panic among citizens enough after the seizure of the child Basma Essam seven months yesterday on suspicion Bismnod ????????? infected birds. The bodies of the Ministry of Health had seized two cases in the last few hours and another case a few days ago have been transferred to the Abbasiya Hospital of the gravity of their situation. The Ministry of Health issued strict instructions to the health departments nationwide not to issue any statements on the epidemic only after consulting the ministry spokesman!! [their emphasis] On the other hand, the Department of Health to take preventive action to ensure that the transition of the epidemic Mkhalten and take samples for examination in the central labs.

http://www.alwafd.org/front/detail.p…b5d9457c6c75be

Okieman – at 08:27

Goju – at 08:12

In what country is this taking place?

Goju – at 08:28

Egypt?

Goju – at 08:31

Ministry of Health intertwines all efforts for facing the bird flu return (Egypt)

http://birdflu.sis.gov.eg/html/flu01021140.htm

Minister of Health and Population Dr. Hatem El-Gabali confirmed that all capabilities were mobilized to face the return of the bird flu, particularly after the emergence of a new human infected case on 10/10/2006. This is the case no. 15 since the virus detection last February.

The Minister elucidated that the teamwork headed by him takes rapid response to any virus infected case. He made it clear that emergency status is declared 100% all over the country’s hospitals and positive detection for the patients were condensed allover the governorates.

There is strategic storage of the Tamiflu medication and such storage will reach 250.000 packets at the end of this year, the Minister pointed out.

Official spokesman of the Ministry of Health Dr. Abdul-Rahman Chahin urged the reporting of any bird suspected case that could be infected by the virus to take the necessary protective procedures. He said that in case of any new infected locations, all contacting persons will be under medical supervision. In case of any suspicion among people, they must go to the nearest hospital to be clinically tested.

Tally Prepper – at 08:48

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2006-10/25/content_5249115.htm

  BEIJING, Oct. 25 (Xinhua) — Chinese scientists called on to set up a monitoring system on the animal-born diseases in China and strengthen the cooperation between the medical research of animal and human being. 
    At a recent scientific forum held in East China’s Shanghai, Wen Yumei, a member of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, said China lacks the basic research on animal-born diseases for a long time. 
    Among the 1,145 known infectious diseases of human being, 62 percent come from animals, scientists say. 
    Researches on some animal diseases have been conducted. But thediseases are new problems for human disease researchers when they are spread to human being, because the separate research of the two fields, said Wen. 
    Rabies has emerged on the top of public health agenda in China, with 2,254 rabies cases recorded in the first nine months of this year, an increase of 29.69 percent over the same period last year. 
    But researchers have no clear idea about the epidemic situation among wild dogs. 
    China suffered a lot from animal diseases in recent years. In 2003, the deadly outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) was believed to be linked to civet cats. 
    China has reported 21 human infections of bird flu since 2003, including 14 deaths. 
    The Ministry of Agriculture on Tuesday warned of a new outbreak of bird flu as winter is coming 
    In China’s plan of scientific and technological development (2006–2020), the surveillance, quarantine, testing and diagnosis of animal-born diseases were listed as crucial tasks. 
Commonground – at 09:16

Goju at 08:12 - link isn’t working, and I also wonder what Country. I couldn’t find it over at FluTrakers.

Klatu – at 09:58

H5N1 Recombination Evidence Excluded from Genbank

Recombinomics Commentary

October 26, 2006 - excerpt

H5N1 bird flu sequences were released this month via the NIAID Influenza sequencing project (see list here).  The samples were submitted by the Capua lab in Italy.  Although HA sequences from several of the isolates had been reported previously, many were partial sequences and in most cases the sequences from the other seven gene segments were not released.

The NIAID program generates full sequences on all eight gene segments, which provide powerful profiles that can be used to trace origins or newly emerging genes, which can be used.  These origins can be used to predict new sequences, as was done for S227N in Turkey at the beginning of this year.

Recent data from northern China has included compelling evidence that H5N1 in China is evolving via recombination.  These sequences are transmitted and transported by migratory birds, which has led to widespread detection of the Fujian strain, which was present in all human cases in China, and subsequently detected in wild birds in Hong Kong, as well as Laos and Malaysia earlier this year.  Moreover, these sequences are also appearing in human Indonesian isolates, which do not match the poultry isolates.

‘’‘Thus, a full sequences of all eight gene segments are essential for predicting new sequences generated by recombination.  The full sequence of the HA gene of a Qinghai isolate from Afghanistan demonstrates how recombined regions are excluded in partial sequences, and raises questions on why the H5N1 sequences generated by St Jude and Hong Kong University are largely partial sequences.  The partial sequences are from H5N1 isolates in Hong Kong, China, and Vietnam and are important in mapping the interactions in dual infections involving H5N1 in Asia.

It remains unclear why the majority of H5N1 sequences from Hong Kong, China, and Vietnam submitted by St Jude and Hong Kong University are partial sequences, particularly for the four genes most likely to show recombination (PB2, PB1, PA, and NP), but full sequences should be generated and placed in the database to provide a clearer picture of recombination and dual infections involving the various versions of H5N1 in Asia.”

http://tinyurl.com/y5erc5

Goju – at 09:59

story http://www.alwafd.org/front/detail.php?id=15193&cat=sec&PHPSESSID=59b3111154fcadd806b5d9457c6c75be

FT http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=11473

Niman http://www.recombinomics.com/News/10270601/H5N1_Egypt_Grow_2.html

Pixie – at 10:13

The story posted by Goju - at 8:10 is from Egypt. Theresa42 had also posted (http://tinyurl.com/yg98l9) an unusual story about Dakhalia Governerate and Aswan on Oct. 15 that I found by googling the hospital mentioned as it sounded familiar.

Casualties of some kind of mystery virus were also transported to Abbasiya Hospital Western Province during the outbreak earlier in the month. That story is all over the map, with conjectures of lead poisioning, contaminated water or food, cholera, typhoid,and also bird flu (they specifically make mention of the recently confirmed female H5N1 patient Hanan (39)). Theresa42′s story stated that at least 14 people had become seriously ill, including some hemmorhagic deaths, reported symptoms of vomiting, diarrhea, and high temperature. The article says one village was quarantined (I think). Anyway, I presume the story Goju posted above is taking place in the same general area since those casualties were also taken to Abbasiya Hospital.

DennisCat 11:08

Yesterday or so, we got information about the lack of home care in case of a pandemic. Here are the links to the study itself.

“the survey also finds that a substantial share of Americans would have no one to care for them if they become ill or would face serious financial problems if they had to stay home from work for a week or more.

To view the complete survey and Power Point slides see:

www.hsph.harvard.edu/panflu/IOM_Avian_flu.ppt

www.hsph.harvard.edu/panflu/panflu_charts.ppt

www.hsph.harvard.edu/panflu/panflu_release_topline.doc “ summary article here. http://tinyurl.com/yy7typ

DennisCat 11:13

Goju – at 08:12 what country?

Abbasiya Hospital is in Egypt. Notice this is where the BF cases were taken back in May:

“27-year-old woman from Egypt who died yesterday, the Geneva-based WHO said today. The woman had been treated at the Abbasiya Hospital for double pneumonia since May 1, Egypt’s government said on its Web site. She is the country’s fifth H5N1 fatality and the first new case in a month. …” (this is dated May 5th)

http://tinyurl.com/y48vpr

cottontop – at 11:34

I have not found any current news for Egytp on bird flu outbreaks, or any other disease out breaks.This food poising article is from 10/13/06. The egyptian government site hasn’t been updated since the 10th.

Did however find this article, and it’s headlines could be the secondardy disease Dr. Dave’s friend was talking about.

XDR TB Now more cases than bird flu www.aids.com under todays news

Blue Ridge Mountain Mom – at 15:11

Georgia, USA

Hi, I have just seen a commercial produced by GlaxoSmithKline. It starts out showing a scientist who works for them that describes their work on diabetes, other diseases, and she starts talking about the pandemic that has not even happened yet. They are hyping their search for a vaccine and giving you a feel good about their company at the same time. Last image is the scientist walking toward DH and child.

Gives the website of GSK-birdflu.com. It’s funny. I’ve been doing research for Central and South America, and I ran across an article that said that Americans only believe what they see on TV and not what comes out of politicians mouths. Ironic that I should see this TV commercial today, especially considering that I have been thinking about changing the channel since the news ended 2.5 hours ago. Procrastination finally pays off! http://tinyurl.com/y7sr9o

Blue Ridge Mountain Mom – at 15:19

Washington, DC, USA

Economists Use Computer Models to Size up Costs of Pandemic Flu By Rosanne Skirble Washington DC 27 October 2006

Health experts fear that a major influenza pandemic could kill millions of people worldwide and cripple the global economy. Since 2003, the highly pathogenic H5N1 virus has spread to nine countries, largely in Asia and Africa. It has wreaked havoc on the poultry industry and killed 150 people. But should the virus mutate and spread more easily among humans, the consequences are difficult to predict.

What plans should a country make and how can a nation prevent widespread death and economic collapse? New computer models based on a history of 20th century pandemics are helping to answer those questions… http://tinyurl.com/yeuq9g

Blue Ridge Mountain Mom – at 15:23

Bangkok

http://tinyurl.com/yby7jp

Review of ban on vaccine use urged

APIRADEE TREERUTKUARKUL & KULTIDA SAMABUDDHI

The Public Health Ministry has proposed that a plan to vaccinate poultry be dusted off to prevent bird flu outbreaks and animal-to-human transmission.

Public Health Minister Mongkol na Songkhla said yesterday that it was necessary to review the ban on fowl vaccination following a series of avian flu outbreaks since 2004.

Moreover, the H5N1 strain of the bird flu virus tended to mutate in a virulent form which, without stringent preventive measures, could lead to a human pandemic, he said.

“A flu pandemic could happen at any time and affect people’s health and the national economy as long as the virus still circulates in the atmosphere,” said the minister…

Blue Ridge Mountain Mom – at 15:27

Massachusetts, USA

Research Describes Affordable Method for Businesses to Prepare for the Pandemic

Methodology Helps Synchronize Readiness Investments Across the Supply Chain

CAMBRIDGE, Mass., Oct 27, 2006 (BUSINESS WIRE) — ChainLink Research released a report today which found that fewer than 1 in 60 companies have an adequate, tested pandemic preparedness plan covering the expected duration of the pandemic. However, through understanding the issues of pandemic characteristics and supply chain challenges, ChainLink has derived a method for synchronizing trading partners’ investments in preparing for the expected bird flu pandemic…

http://tinyurl.com/ycu7nn

Blue Ridge Mountain Mom – at 15:33

USA

Contact: Cheryl Dybas cdybas@nsf.gov 703–292–7734 National Science Foundation

‘’‘NSF, NIH award Ecology of Infectious Diseases grants Ecologists will study West Nile virus, malaria, bird flu and other infectious diseases’‘’

Over the past 20 years, unprecedented changes in biodiversity have coincided with the emergence and re-emergence of numerous infectious diseases around the world. To address this problem, the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Institutes of Health (NIH) have announced funding for eight projects under the Ecology of Infectious Diseases (EID) program, a multi-year, joint-agency effort now in its seventh year of funding.

“The joint program supports efforts to create a predictive understanding of the ecological and biological mechanisms that govern relationships among human-induced environmental changes and transmission of infectious diseases,” said Samuel Scheiner, program director in NSF’s biological sciences directorate, which funds the EID program along with NSF’s geosciences directorate.

<snip>

This year’s awards include developing a better understanding of the effects of avian migration and human-caused change on the distribution and risks of avian influenza; predicting variations in West Nile virus transmission in different regions; the changing dynamics of malaria and other diseases in Papua New Guinea; disease resistance in estuarine populations like oysters and the response to climate change; sudden oak death and links among pathogens, hosts and environments; the influence of environmental change on how parasites move through human, invertebrate and environmental pathways; and others.

http://tinyurl.com/yj5lb7

Sniffles – at 15:42

Pixie – at 10:13 “That story is all over the map, with conjectures of lead poisioning, contaminated water or food, cholera, typhoid,and also bird flu (they specifically make mention of the recently confirmed female H5N1 patient Hanan (39)).”

I used to direct a surveillance program for adults with elevated blood lead levels. You do not see a fever or hemorrhagic symptoms with lead overexposures.

I would think that Egypt would want to provide a quick answer to why these people are ill to reassure the people. It is strange that they are so quiet about the situation.

Blue Ridge Mountain Mom – at 17:45

India

Paying eggs-tra for that dozen? Blame it on bird flu, say traders Swapna Anesh Pillai

Ahmedabad, October 27: First was the hike in vegetable prices during Diwali. Now more is being ’eggs-tracted’ from the common man. Reason? The hike in egg and chicken prices. All because of bird flu, say poultry traders. From a wholesale rate of Rs 165/100 eggs just a week ago, the prices have shot up to Rs 180/100 this week. The retail price of eggs shot up from Rs 22 per dozen last week to Rs 30 this week. Even the chicken prices have gone up from Rs 70–80 last week to nearly Rs 90–100 this week…

http://tinyurl.com/yf8b6n

Commonground – at 19:17

http://tinyurl.com/y955jp

WHO to report on ethical issues in pandemic planning

Robert Roos News Editor

Oct 27, 2006 (CIDRAP News) – The World Health Organization (WHO) plans to issue a report in January on ethical issues raised by pandemic influenza planning, such as how to provide fair access to available drugs and vaccines, WHO officials said today after 2 days of meetings in Geneva.

More than 30 leading experts on pandemic flu, ethics, and public health attended the meetings Oct 24 and 25, WHO spokesman Gregory Hartl said at a news teleconference today.

“This was not designed to reach any conclusions, but to raise issues,” Hartl said. “The idea was to get people talking about these issues before the pandemic started.”

Dr. Alex Capron, a professor of law and medicine at the University of Southern California, said the discussions focused on four main topics: equitable access to therapeutic and prophylactic measures; ethical aspects of interventions such as quarantine and social distancing; what healthcare workers should be expected to do during an outbreak and what obligations are owed them; and issues that arise between governments when developing a multilateral response to a pandemic.

The WHO report will stress the need to have broad public involvement in decisions and to base choices on an accurate understanding of the pandemic, officials said.

“The recognition that emerged very strongly [at the meetings] was that it was going to be essential to have public engagement in all aspects of planning and a frank and candid recognition that the questions of the pandemic are going to be not just technical questions, but also ethical questions,” Capron said.

He said the WHO is not aiming for “a single set of prescriptions for all circumstances.” Instead, everyone involved in planning will be dealing with “the need for trading off among a number of different ethical values.”

He cited several examples: the principle of utility, which stresses the need to “maximize welfare”; the principle of fairness, which emphasizes justice; the principle of liberty, which says individuals should be able to make their own choices as much as possible; and the principle of reciprocity, which says that people who contribute to the public good are owed something in return.

“These may point in different directions,” Capron said.

In response to a question about vaccine rationing, Capron said, “One of the things that emerged very strongly is the necessity for good ethics to rest on good facts.” Some at the meeting challenged the assumption that children and elderly people will be at greatest risk, and suggested, he said, that health agencies may need “contingency plans depending on what the virus turns out to be like, how it behaves.”

In an apparent reference to suggestions that the pandemic may hit young, healthy adults hardest, as occurred in the 1918 pandemic, Capron added, “The assumption that the youngest or oldest are most at risk is the assumption that applies to seasonal influenza, [which] may or may not be the case here.”

Dr. Elaine Gadd, a senior medical officer and ethics specialist with the United Kingdom Department of Health, seconded Capron’s comments. “It’s very important that any plans are responsive to the actual characteristics of the pandemic, which we do not know in advance. Any plan must be capable of amendment in light of the actual facts.”

In response to another question about vaccine allocation, Dr. Richard Heymann, the WHO director-general’s acting special representative for pandemic flu, said the groups that will most need protection include health workers and their families along with police and fire fighters.

As for journalists, Heymann said he hopes they can be protected too. “But it has to be decided by the local community and the countries,” he added. “WHO just meets and makes broad recommendations and studies the issues.” (Experts say no vaccine well-matched to the pandemic virus will be available for ’at least‘ the first several months of a pandemic, and after that it will be in short supply.)

A report on the ethics meeting will be drafted and circulated to participants and other stakeholders in November, with a goal of publishing the report and some “guiding points” in January, said Dr. Andreas Reis, a WHO technical officer for ethics and health.

Tom DVM – at 20:01

The World Health Organization reporting on ethical issues planning…now there is an oxymoron.

Monotreme – at 20:05

USA

Would Americans Panic In A Flu Pandemic?

A large majority of Americans would comply with government orders to avoid work, school, or other public places in the event of a flu pandemic, according to a survey released Thursday.

[snip]

But researchers warn such willingness would likely erode after just a few weeks as lost wages, food shortages, and runs on medical attention mounted.

[snip]

A similar lack of planning for the potential upheaval of a major flu outbreak would quickly undo the public’s initial goodwill, Blendon told a panel convened by the Institute of Medicine.

“The people that are going to run out of gas first are very low income, they’re hourly workers.” Blendon said.

“If things go wrong, people are going to change their behavior,” he warned.

[snip]

Few hospitals have planned for the surges in patients that would likely turn up for medical attention in the first wave of a pandemic, Henderson says. Few have stockpiled filtration masks or other medical supplies.

Edna Mode – at 20:13

Blue Ridge Mountain Mom – at 15:27

That article is basically a press release that links to the companies site where businesses can buy the plan for $795. Seemed legit coming under the NYT masthead, but not so.

Edna Mode – at 20:14

…company’s site…

DennisCat 20:23

Comment:

Edna Mode – at 20:13 Seemed legit coming under the NYT masthead, but not so.

The NYT has not been very helpful nor do they represent things in an unbiased way. They print things that would better be left as secret and the keep secret things that would better be told. They want to make news instead of reporting it. They could do so much to help people prepare but they are missing their chance. Can you imagine how much a single “pull out” in the NYT on flu preperation would do and how many lives it could save? I can see why some think that NYC will not survive even a moderate pandemic.

Pixie – at 20:32

Commonground - at 19:17: “The WHO report will stress the need to have broad public involvement in decisions and to base choices on an accurate understanding of the pandemic, officials said.”

I noticed that part about the pandemic too. If fact this week’s news reports had Nabarro talking about the pandemic rather than apandemic.

Perhaps I am too particular, or maybe it is just a function of my experience as a female, but I know that when a woman is thinking of having a baby, she talks about a baby.

When she is pregnant, and she can feel the baby kick and see for herself its growth in her belly, she invariably calls it the baby.

Now we just need to wait for the official birthdate and maybe find a name.

Monotreme – at 20:49

Illinois, USA

Flu clinic and pandemic exercise to be held in Salem

There will be more than just a flu clinic taking place in Salem next week. In addition to the clinic, the Marion County Health Department will be holding a Pandemic Exercise on Friday, November 3rd at the First Christian Church located at 1200 West Boone Street in Salem from 9–11.

Health Department Director of Nursing Shelly Yoder says that the exercise is needed to practice their implemented plan in case of a pandemic. She says the purpose is to prepare staff, volunteers and community members to run a dispensing clinic in the event that a pandemic would occur.

[snip]

The Health Department will be administering influenza vaccine for the 2006–2007 Flu season during this exercise. The fee is 25-dollars for the vaccine or Medicare Part B will be accepted.

http://tinyurl.com/yf8wrd

Monotreme – at 20:52

North Carolina, USA

Drill tests pandemic preparedness

“At some point, the state is saying we will be faced with a pandemic flu,” said Michelle Etheridge, health education supervisor for the county. “If we did have an emergency it would be overwhelming, but at least we would have had done some planning and will be prepared.”

About 15 actors and nearly all the Health Department’s staff participated in the drill, which was put on with funding from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. Participants used all the proper equipment and gear to make the scene as real as possible.

http://tinyurl.com/yeysso

Monotreme – at 20:53

USA

Health Experts Discuss Flu Pandemic Strategies

 Washington authorities who are preparing for the next flu pandemic acknowledge that the best tools for protecting Americans are the same ones used 88 years ago, in the great flu pandemic of 1918.

Those tools, which met with varying degrees of success, included wholesale home quarantines, school closures and cancellation of public events.

In a two-day workshop this week at the National Institute of Medicine, experts heard from medical historians about what worked, and what didn’t, in various U.S. cities in 1918.

http://tinyurl.com/y9s96b

Monotreme – at 20:57

Arizona, USA

County: Pandemic is possible and probable

In a worst-case scenario, as many as 40 percent of Americans could contract the disease, and 20 percent of those men, women and children would die. That’s 24 million people across the nation, and an estimated 1,700 people dead in Pinal County within a 12 to 18-month time span.

[snip]

Schryer said without a plan for coping, mass deaths across the country could cause near chaos. He said thinking ahead starts locally, and at home.

[snip]

“We look at it as house to house, each family has to be prepared because we’re not going to be able to look after everybody.

[snip]

“Pinal county’s goals are to limit death and illness and preserve the continuity of essential business and government functions,” he said. “(Also) minimize social destruction and minimize economic loss.

“We’re going to do that by working with all of our government and business partners to try to have them as prepared as possible. That way when there is a tremendous shortage of necessities you’ll at least have some sort of a stockpile to take care of people.”

http://tinyurl.com/y4c9as

Monotreme – at 21:18

Thailand

Govt to build plant for bird-flu vaccine

Public Health Minister Mongkol na Songkhla yesterday gave the go-ahead to plan for a vaccine plant to produce both influenza and bird-flu vaccines for humans in case of a global pandemic.

“The world’s total capacity to produce [the two] vaccines is only 300 million doses and if it [global pandemic] really happens, no one will ever give us some,” Mongkol said after chairing a ministry meeting to review the bird-flu situation.

“How could we survive?” he said.

[snip]

Another priority for the ministry is to make bird flu a national agenda item in order to improve the handling of outbreaks of the disease, which has become endemic in the country, and push for completion of the preparedness plan for the feared influenza pandemic.

In a couple of weeks at most, the ministry needs to have all clear-cut scientific bird-flu information in hand and ready for submission to policymakers through a Cabinet meeting, Mongkol said.

[snip]

Reports of bird-flu cases either in humans or poultry pose a big “question mark”, while records of many deceased patients list the cause of death as simply “severe pneumonia with reasons unknown”, he said.

“Could it be bird flu? We don’t know exactly. The virus has evolved and this is what we fear the most,” Mongkol added.

http://tinyurl.com/yjwf5o

DennisCat 23:32

Iran

“An inception workshop under regional network on avian influenza in central asian countries will be held in Tehran from 30 october to 2 November 2006.

According to the United Nations Information Center, …. representatives (mainly chief veterinary officers) from the Islamic Republic of Iran, Turkey, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Azerbaijan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan will participate in the workshop. “

http://tinyurl.com/y533e6

cottontop – at 23:38

Increase news on the web, but why not in the main stream media, ie, newspapers, t.v.?

28 October 2006

stilearning – at 00:38

Hey Pixie - 20:32

Let’s call it “WHO’s Baby”

AnnieBat 00:42

I am starting the News Summary then I will open a new thread.

You might like to save your posting for about 30 minutes.

Cheers and thanks

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.NewsReportsForOctober27
Page last modified on October 28, 2006, at 12:42 AM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Battery Supplier

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Battery Supplier

27 October 2006

Carrey in VA – at 19:59

I might have mentioned this place before, but they have great prices on batteries here.

http://www.rdbatteries.net/

For instance

1.2V/2.2Ah D NiMH With Button Top (D sized rechargable batteries) are $5 each 1.2V/2.2Ah C NiMH With Button Top (C sized rechargable batteries) are $5 each 1.2V/1.6Ah AA NiMH With Button Top (AA sized rechargable batteries) are $3 each

Also, they can make you batteries, to your specifications. Very cool site.

Hubby uses them all the time for work. (he repairs medical equipment)

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 20:40

Thanks a lot for that link again, I’d mislaid it…..LOTS of batteries there!!!

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.BatterySupplier
Page last modified on October 27, 2006, at 08:40 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / PROTECTIVESEQUESTRATIONCOMMUNITYRULES

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: PROTECTIVESEQUESTRATIONCOMMUNITYRULES

27 October 2006

Ranch Wife and Mother – at 11:55

I have a great deal of respect for Dr. Woodson, but I do not beleive our son who has chronic health problems could survive a battle with a super flu. My husband and I decided to form a small protective sequestration on our land. We live in the mountains and by location we are isolated.

We have spoken to our natural group already. We have decided that we should write a letter to the prospective group members with our expectations. Could I have the wonderful FluWiki community members give me their comments of this letter?

Dear Friends,

I have heard that in New Orleans, people had written, “Hope is not a plan.”

It seems we are threatened by an Avian Flu Pandemic. We all Pray and wish this becomes an empty warning.

In case this becomes an immediate threat to families in Western Canada, Mike and I would like to offer your family a sanctuary on our land.

Our plan is for a protective group sequestration for the duration of the threat.

Limited by the quantity and quality of data, we nevertheless ultimately concluded that protective sequestration (the shielding of a defined and still healthy group of people from the risk of infection from outsiders), if enacted early enough in the pandemic, crafted so as to encourage the compliance of the population involved without draconian enforcement measures, and continued for the lengthy period of time at which the area is at risk, stands the best chance of protection against infection.

	http://www.med.umich.edu/medschool/chm/influenza/index.htm

We have a number of conditions attached to this offer.

1) Only the immediate families that we invite are welcome here. If a family wants to bring an extended family member or close friend, they must ask Mike first.

2) All families must bring everything they will need to survive here. Families must bring their own shelter, food, medical supplies, entertainment, defense, energy, etc. We only offer our land. The land has creek for untreated water and game in the forests for meat.

3) Every adult must agree to the community rules at the bottom of this letter.

To help people prepare, I have a number of suggested websites. If you know of good sources of information, please attach them to this list and e-mail it back to me.

Pandemic Preparation Guides

1) http://www.fluwikie.com/pmwiki.php?n=Consequences.PandemicPreparednessGuides

2) http://www.fluwikie.com/annex/WoodsonMonograph.htm

3) How to Prepare for a Pandemic (document password = “fluwikie”) book by Will Stewart, Engineer and part-time farmer (Website) (pdf, 96 pages, 1,100 KB. 15 May 2006)

Supplies

4) http://www.fluwikie.com/pmwiki.php?n=Consequences.List

General Disaster Preparations

1) http://www.fema.gov/areyouready/

2) http://extension.usu.edu/ueden/index.cfm

3) http://www.pandemicreferenceguides.com/infopages/individualpreparedness.html

Medical Info

1) http://www.hesperian.org/publications_download.php

2) http://www.mayoclinic.com/health/bird-flu/DS00566/DSECTION=1&

Flu Discussion Forums and Info

3) http://www.curevents.com/vb/forumdisplay.php?f=40

4) http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.Forum

5) http://www.recombinomics.com/whats_new.html

6) http://www.birdflumanual.com/articles.asp

PROTECTIVE SEQUESTRATION COMMUNITY RULES

Introduction and Purpose

Mike and I have never lived in a Sequestered Intentional Community. Faced with a possible pandemic threat, we are creating these community rules. We are open to discussions on every aspect of this arrangement.

Mike see’s this potential, temporary community being lead somewhat like a Aboriginal tribe. Group discussions, group voting, but Mike will hold veto power and the final say.

It seems that the key to keeping our families safe from a pandemic flu is to stay away from other people. If this makes sense to you, you can consider coming to stay with us. Our intention is to live like a neighborhood until the threat passes and everyone goes home ;-).

These community rules are based on people living in a small, temporary village. The purpose of our community will be staying alive in as normal style as possible.

Here are the rules/notices that every adult must agree to follow before coming to stay on our land.

1. Everyone can leave whenever they want, but they can not return unless Mike agrees in advance. One condition might be agreeing to a two week quarantine 200 meters from the “village” boundaries. The reason is that someone who is exposed to other people may return to group contagious.

2. Each family unit MUST be self contained. The ONLY thing Mike and I can offer is a temporary plot of land in the mountains. Every family must bring their own shelter/home, food supplies, first aid and medical supplies, firearms, fire suppressions, clothing, entertainment, etc. YOU ARE ON YOUR OWN.

We do expect fair and voluntary trading/bartering for items, but no one should come expecting any hand-outs. An example would be if I managed to grow many potatoes in my garden, but my cucumbers flopped. Maybe someone else in the village would like to trade some of their abundance of cucumbers for my potatoes.

Competent adults in the village may bring dependents with them, assuming Mike knows and approves ahead of time. We do not expect dependents to provide their own way, but we do expect the adults who are responsible for them to completely provide for them. Here is an example, let’s say that Tim become’s ill. We don’t expect anyone else in the village to care for him. Tim is our responsibility.

Charity may be welcomed, but never expected. To continue with the above example, let’s say that Tim becomes ill with something that may be contagious. We would isolate our family unit from the village to protect everyone else. If a friend dropped off some fresh cookies at the doorstep, of course that would be welcomed by us. But we can not expect or demand that others give up their supplies to help us.

Maybe our child will become ill and we will run out of the supplies we need. We can not force anyone to give up their own limited goods to help us. Maybe people in the village will, but that their decision. Maybe, we will be able to trade other goods for what we need. As long all contributions/trades are voluntary, that’s fine.

3. Every competent adult must contribute to the village good for five hours a week, or more depending or group needs. For example, we will have weekly group meetings. For these meetings, someone must cut the firewood (assuming winter), clean up after the meeting is over, etc. If everyone pitches in on the various tasks, we should have a happier village.

Other tasks will include, but not be limited too,

A. Guard duty if the village is in danger of others trying to enter without clear permission. We have to say no to protect the village from possibly contagious people.

B. Group hunting or butchering.

C. Organizing entertainment.

D. Building or cleaning the group outhouse used for group meetings.

E. Teaching village children/adults your area of skills.

Mike will not charge anyone money for staying on the our land for this purpose. In exchange for “free rent”, we expect adults to work a few hours a week for the community good. Mike and I will also work the same amount of hours as every other adult.

4. Children are the responsibility of their parents. It may take a village to raise a child, but parents must know where their children are at all times, feed them, etc.

5. Our dogs may be problematic for others in the village. This is an area that may require a constant and open dialogue. Assuming our dogs do not become ill themselves, we do allow them to run free on our land.

6. Of course, all government laws that apply to our area will apply to the village. We do not want anyone on our land that may cause legal problems for us. I believe the most relevant laws will pertain to proper and safe firearm storage. Please plan on following the laws for everyone’s protection.

7. We intent to have our guest cabin as the village common area. During the weekdays, schooling could (if parents choose) happen there as a one room school house. It’s a great place for smaller meetings, the village library, etc.

We envision the cabin as short term housing for urgent situations. In the case of domestic dispute, a couple of nights of one party staying in the cabin may provide a cooling down period. Another example would be someone’s shelter being damaged. They could stay in the cabin while repairing their home.

Anyone who stays overnight in the cabin must understand that it is still a common village area during the day.

We will place a maximum stay of three nights a month. Anyone who required a longer stay in the cabin must first ask the group. The village may decide to offer an extension.

8. Parking. We ask that once people have unloaded their vehicles, they park them by the front gate.

9. No nudity in public, please. The exception, with discretion expected, will be creek bathing in the summer months. Please swim or bathe downstream of the village drinking water collection areas. Another exception is very young children; clothing in the summer is up to the parents.

10. House locations. We are expecting that the village will form as people’s personalities and area requirements dictate. Close enough that help can be offered in the case of fire, far part enough to give families privacy and a “space to call their own”.

11. Please plan on respectful use of our land. We understand that some of our pasture will be damaged, but we ask that families minimize their footprint as much as reasonably possible.

12. Please plan on building an outhouse.

http://www.hesperian.info/assets/EHB_Sanitation_EN_lowres.pdf

13. Please ensure that the creek is NEVER polluted by garbage or human waste.

http://www.hesperian.info/assets/Water_EN.pdf

14. Please plan to remove your uncomposting/unburnable garbage at the end of your stay with us. As a group, we will have to discuss storage options for this kind of garbage.

15. These are the existing Guest Cabin Rules.

MIKES’S CABIN RULES

1) No smoking.

2) No pets.

3) No candles. If you would like an exception to this rule, you must first speak face to face with Mike and ask for permission.

4) Main house quiet hours:

Weekdays: No visitors in the house from 7:30 pm to 7 am. These are Tim’s sleeping hours.

5) Firewood is stored by the dogs. Feel free to cut some if you need wood.

6) Do not leave fire unattended.

7) Please keep clothing, bedding, and furniture away from the wood stove.

8) No burning of incense.

9) Please keep the cabin in a tidy condition throughout your visit.

10) No swearing/foul language around Tim.

11) Do not leave an empty kettle on a hot stove.

MIKES CHORES for his GUESTS

12) All rubbish and recycling must be packed out by our visitors. Do not leave any of it behind for us to pack out. Take it away from our property entirely and dispose it yourself.

13) Please clean up the cabin when you leave. We do not enjoy doing this for you.

14) When leaving please turn off lights, and replug in the mouse deterrent device.

15) Wash all dirty dishes in dishpan.

16) Leave the kitchen spotless.

Since Mike and I do not have any experience with intentional communities, I have raided the rules and standards for other organizations. I just cut and pasted them here.

FluWiki – For the sake of space and copy write laws, I will just include the links I used. In the “real” letter I cut, pasted and credited what I thought was relevant to the group.

http://www.ic.org/pnp/cdir/1995/24gordon.php

http://www.thefarm.org/lifestyle/albertbates/akbp4.html

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 12:06

Our intention is to live like a neighborhood until the threat passes and everyone goes home ;-).

What if they don’t have a place to return to, or having parked “away” they no longer have a way to return to see if they still have a home?

I’d want my vehicle near me to help store my stuff & lessen the stress of stumbling over it in my tent and breaking my neck.

Very very very nice of you to open your land to those you choose to. Your generosity is admirable.

Tomo – at 12:39

You are much more accommodating than us. The people who might come here looking for help are family that have chosen not to prepare for any length of time. ( 2 weeks maybe ). If they show up asking for help it’s not going to be a democracy, it’s our rules or don’t come. I’m not going to risk my families lives.

Dennis in Colorado – at 13:17

5) Firewood is stored by the dogs.

I think that is great. I’ve never been able to get my dogs to be that helpful.

Surfer – at 13:33

Ranch Wife and Mother: Excellent concept. I have planned to do the same. Won’t be running a cult or commune, only a temporary respite for those that I invite. However, in addition to the rules (excellent, by the way), I may be inclined to charge an admission fee. Haven’t decided yet. The admission fee would reimburse me for my time and expense of preparing this mountain retreat over the course of the past year. The folks that have repeatedly ignored my warnings to prepare may be charged the most, ‘cause when it hits, I know they will be the first to immediately come running to me (of course, they had no qualms about mocking me and my preperation plans). Good luck.

Annoyed Max- Not mad yet – at 13:48

Dennis—LMAO!!!

Bronco Bill – at 14:00

Dennis in Colorado – at 13:17 --- I read that exactly the same way, but I didn’t want to open my yap!! ;-)

Ranch Wife and Mother – at 11:55 --- I wish I had the kind of land that y’all have, so I could make the same kind of open-hearted offer you have!

Jane – at 14:15

For your own safety, you might need to specify the fire suppression requirements.

 Will there be only one outhouse?  Or one per family?  Should they bring bags of lime, shovels, lumber?   

This is a great enterprise! Good luck!

1Mother – at 14:29

Thanks for cut-n-paste-n a nifty community bylaws.

1Mother – at 14:30

Thanks for cut-n-paste-n a nifty community bylaws.

Poppy – at 15:23

Just curious. What kind of shelter do you expect them to bring? Would it be some sort of travel trailer, motor home or other type of recreational vehicle? Or would they be building a cabin or house of some sort to live in? I get the impression from your post you are in Canada and I am just thinking that if this begins in winter that hastily built shelters might be very inadequate as would any sort of recreational vehicle. Also have you considered you might find yourself with a bunch of poorly built cabins to demolish when it’s all over? Maybe it might be best to lay out plans for this village around your existing guest cabin with these specific families in mind, yet allowing for extra room should people want more distance between them, so there is some order to start with and to reduce the impact on your property.

Your offer to these families seems a generous one to me.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 15:41

Dennis in Colorado – at 13:17 5) Firewood is stored by the dogs. I think that is great. I’ve never been able to get my dogs to be that helpful.

I thought about that….Ranch Wife and Mother how much would you charge for your dogs to teach my cats??

I think you really should consider a monetary charge, since you very well might be left with a mess on your hands, or worse, with quasi-permenantly damaged property from a major fire — like lightning for instance — and the charge could be held in ‘reserve’ to cover any emergency ‘fixes’ you might find you need during or after a pandemic. I hope you’ll consider that, I’d hate for your generosity to be stomped on in some bad way that you couldn’t repair easily.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 15:55

By the way, is it just me or is anyone else haing trouble with the second intentional community link at the bottom of Ranch Wife and Mother’s first post?

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.PROTECTIVESEQUESTRATIONCOMMUNITYRULES
Page last modified on October 27, 2006, at 03:55 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / News Reports for October 26

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: News Reports for October 26

26 October 2006

AnnieBat 01:09

Summary from Indonesia Outbreak as at 23 October 2006 (latest update)

Cases DiscussedJun-06Jul-06Aug-06Sep-06Oct-06Total
Died, no tests2243415
Died, tested positive4323315
Other tested positive013105
Suspected symptoms42463826116
Tested negative062619758
Totals1014816440209

Lookout Posts – here are the links

Please visit these threads for latest information from these regions

(Please see the thread Volunteers Needed as Lookouts Worldwide if you want to help)


Summary of News for 25 October 2006

(From WHO as at 16 Oct - latest update) Total human cases worldwide 256, deaths 151 (2006 – 109 with 73 deaths)
(If you want the links to open in a new window, hold down the shift key and then click on the link)

Canada

Europe

India

Indonesia

(Inner) Mongolia

Pacific

South Korea

United States of America

Vietnam

Zimbabwe

General

Link to news thread for 25 October (link News Reports for October 25 )
(Usual disclaimer about may not have captured everything. Feel free to add your own where omissions have occurred.)
Please note that I copy the links directly from the thread so if they don’t work you may need to re-visit the Thread.

Klatu – at 08:43

Expert: sparrows in China carry bird flu virus

2006–10–26 19:29:57

‘’‘BEIJING, Oct. 26 (Xinhua) — “Chinese scientists recently reported that they found H5N1 bird flu virus in sparrows two years ago, the first time the virus has been detected in the common, non-migratory bird on the Chinese mainland.

Wuhan Institute of Virology in central China’s Hubei Province tested excrement samples from 38 sparrows after an outbreak of bird flu in a county in Henan Province in 2004. Some of samples tested positive of H5N1 virus, said Li Tianxian, a researcher with the institute.’‘’

“There’s no need for the public to panic. The findings are two years old and there is no indication that sparrows pose a risk,” said Li, adding that scientists found the bird flu virus in sparrows in the region of Hong Kong in 2002 and also in Turkey and South Africa.

‘’‘Working with the Beijing Institute of Zoology, both under the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the scientists isolated four H5N1 strains among the 25 positive excrement samples.

Li said tests on the four strains have shown they are a new genotype of H5N1, adding that researchers did not find dead sparrows.’‘’

It was thought that bird flu was mainly transmitted by migratory water fowl, but this finding proves that non-migratory birds are also a potential channel for bird flu transmission, Li told the Chutian Metropolitan News published in Hubei Province.

The finding was published in December of last year in the U.S-based Journal of Virology, according to the newspaper.”

http://tinyurl.com/y9rydd

Klatu – at 08:46

Chinese scientists report bird flu in sparrows

26 Oct 2006 11:26:57 GMT Source: Reuters

BEIJING, Oct 26 (Reuters) - Chinese scientists said they had found the H5N1 bird flu virus in sparrows two years ago, the first time it has been detected in non-migratory birds in China, Xinhua news agency reported on Thursday. Researchers at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, in the central province of Hubei, found the virus in sparrows’ excrement following an outbreak of bird flu in a county in neighbouring Henan province.

There’s no need for the public to panic. The findings are two years old and there is no indication that sparrows pose a risk,” Xinhua quoted Li Tianxian, a researcher at the institute, as saying.

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/PEK216435.htm

Klatu – at 08:49

Map of Hubei province in China

Tally Prepper – at 09:23

This may be unrelated however, I posted and article a few days ago where a top scientist said WHO should be concerned with the new TB we are seeing.This article says five people have died of TB in five days yet they have not been confirmed with TB. It could be a mixing pot if nothing else. http://www.dispatch.co.za/2006/10/26/Easterncape/atb.htmlDeadly new TB may have killed five more

EC health officials are now monitoring sixth victim By ALISON STENT

THE DEADLY new strain of extremely drug resistant tuberculosis, XDR-TB, may have claimed a further five Eastern Cape victims in as many days. All five are from Port Elizabeth. A sixth possible case is under provincial Health Department scrutiny together with the patient’s family.

The Daily Dispatch reported last week that the department was searching frantically for the six in order to ferry them to special isolation wards at Jose Pearson TB Hospital in Port Elizabeth.

This was after news leaked out that 14 from Port Elizabeth may already have died of the dangerous new strain, which has mutated from MDR, or multi-drug resistant TB, which itself mutated from ordinary TB as a result of patients defaulting on their medication regime. None of the 20 cases has yet been confirmed as XDR, health spokesperson Mzukisi Ndara emphasised. The five people who died did so before the necessary tests were complete, while the sixth, in Humansdorp, is awaiting test results from the laboratory, he added. By Tuesday, a total of 284 cases had been confirmed in KwaZulu-Natal, the worst-hit province, said SA Medical Research Council spokesperson Lorenzo Raynard. However, he could not speculate on the number of XDR infections in the Eastern Cape.

Representatives from 11 Southern African countries joined international experts last month to drum up an emergency regime against the killer disease as fears rose over the KZN outbreak, which had a high fatality rate because many of the patients were already ill with HIV-related infections. Dr Gerrit Coetzee, who heads the TB reference laboratory at the National Health Laboratory Service, said there was an urgent need to put new measures in place to curb the spread of infection, including “far more stringent infection control in healthcare facilities”. “At the moment there are TB patients coughing all over people in clinic and hospital queues. Infectious people must be separated out and treated in separate rooms.”

He said the TB germ could “hang around in the air” for quite a few hours. He also called for far more diagnostic tests. He pointed to the laboratories at Frere Hospital, at Mthatha General and in Port Elizabeth, although “I know they are understaffed and overworked”.

JWB – at 10:08

….bird flu in sparrows…..

I thought H5N1 only infected large birds(?)

cottontop – at 10:33

why is this in the news again? It’s two years old.

Tally Prepper – at 11:09

http://www.dispatch.co.za/2006/10/26/Easterncape/atb.html

Corrected link on 9:23 above…

Klatu – at 11:55

“”“cottontop – at 10:33 wrote:”“”

why is this in the news again? It’s two years old.


“”“26 Oct 2006 11:26:57 GMT Source: Reuters’‘’

Non-migratory Sparrows infected with H5N1 might be common knowledge to some, but this is the first media report that I’ve encountered, and a I read a lot.


JWB – at 10:08 wrote:

….bird flu in sparrows….. I thought H5N1 only infected large birds(?)


Not anymore.

DennisCat 12:34

remember a few weeks ago when Hungary had sparrow problems. I wonder if they were tested.

anonymous – at 14:18

More congressional members involved in CDC investigation Already under investigation by the Senate Finance Committee, the CDC now faces scrutiny by the House Energy and Commerce Committee, which has asked the CDC director to explain the agency’s reorganization, its financial management, and the way it handles human tissue samples and lab equipment. Journal and Constitution (Atlanta) (free registration) (10/24)

Grace RN – at 14:57

To me a finding that indicates H5N1 is very entrenched locally in native birds.

And IMHO the more chances it has ‘up to bat’ie showing up in birds and mammals the more chances it has of finally hitting one out of the ballpark.

Blue Ridge Mountain Mom – at 15:26

Boston, Massachusetts, USA

In the Case of an Outbreak of Pandemic Flu, Large Majority of Americans Willing to Make Major Changes in Their Lives

Harvard School of Public Health (HSPH) 10/26/2006 1:41:59 PM

Thursday, October 26, 2006, Boston, MA — The latest national survey conducted by the Harvard School of Public Health (HSPH) Project on the Public and Biological Security finds that when faced with a serious outbreak of pandemic flu, a large majority of Americans are willing to make major changes in their lives and cooperate with public health officials’ recommendations.

However, the survey also finds that a substantial share of Americans would have no one to care for them if they become ill or would face serious financial problems if they had to stay home from work for a week or more… (study is 25% for these two questions)

http://tinyurl.com/yy7typ

cottontop – at 15:45

Klatu @ 11:55

Well you missed this one. My point is, why bring this up now? However, I’m glad they did. It gives us a heads up on the fact that H5N1 seems to infect birds in general, and not just large poultry. There only testing in large poultry, not smaller birds like sparrow. A good commentary on this: www.recombinomics.com/news/12010502/h5n1_henan.html

JWB – at 15:58

Speaking of recombinomics and todays news….

‘’H5N1 H9N2 Recombinants in Northern China Recombinomics Commentary October 26, 2006

….revealed rapid transmission, frequent reassortment, and identifiable recombination events“. …..

I can’t tinyurl here at work, would someone please provide link?

Worried in Wales – at 16:00

In the UK over the last couple of years there have been questions asked in newspapers etc (including a bit of a campaign by the ‘Independent’ newspaper)regarding the recent lack of sparrows in Britain. They used to be very common, then quite suddenly they seemed to become very rare in most places. Hope it isn’t connected.

DennisCat 16:02

JWB – at 15:58

here is the link:

 http://tinyurl.com/yj8k88
JV – at 16:02

JWB - at 15:58

Here is the link: http://tinyurl.com/yj8k88

cottontop – at 16:03

Sudan is reporting bird flu outbreaks. I’m going to keep a close eye on my favorite ancient country, Egypt, for Sudan borders it. Kenya is stepping up their alert.

Commonground – at 16:06

For JWB - at 15:58:
http://tinyurl.com/yj8k88

DennisCat 16:07

cottontop – at 16:03 do you have a link for the Sudan outbreak?

cottontop – at 16:09

DennisC- Hold on and let me recheck that address.

JWB – at 16:11

Thanks X 3.

Interesting that all three tinyurls are identical!

No drift, shift, mutations, or recombinations.

Sniffles – at 16:14

NPR has just done a radio interview about the pandemic survey and the 2-day workshop this week at the National Institute of Medicine where experts heard from medical historians about what worked and what didn’t in 1918 in various U.S. cities. The interview will be posted on their website after 7pm eastern time today.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=6388581

DennisCat 16:23

Have you noticed there have been no new human cases since the 15th (I just check through our news summaries)? That could be a good sign since it seems previous outbreaks seemed to be seperated by a week or two. Perhaps it was contained this time. But I need to find my reading glasses and look harder instead of these rose colored glasses.

JWB – at 16:36

DennisC – at 16:23

Have you noticed there have been no new human cases since the 15th


The calm before the storm?

Karina – at 16:36

Survey: How Would Americans Handle a Super Flu?

Ask Americans if they would hole up at home to keep from spreading a super-strain of flu, and at first they pledge to cooperate.

But probe deeper, and here come the doubts. One in four adults says there is no one to care for them at home if they got sick, raising the specter of Grandma gasping alone in bed or a single mom passed out while her children wail.

http://tinyurl.com/yg7xv9

It’s a good article.

Karina – at 16:38

Except for the fact that they think people will only miss an average of 7–10 days.

Sniffles – at 16:44

Karina – at 16:36 This is another article about the same survey you discussed (is a Canadian newspaper, so the word spelling will be different), but it had some comments from Michael Osterholm that were very interesting. (I apologize - I do not know how to do a small url yet!)

<snip> Blendon said workplace worries were a major problem, too. Many people live paycheque-to-paycheque, and more than one-quarter of respondents said they would lose a job or business if they had to stay home for seven days to 10 days. Only one-third thought they still would get paid if they missed work.

This real-world feedback is important as long as policymakers understand people will act less rationally in a crisis, said Michael Osterholm, a University of Minnesota infectious disease specialist who has advised the government on flu preparations.

His bigger concern is that the stay-at-home plans are far too simplistic.

“If you want to guarantee that society will collapse in terms of the economy, tell everybody to stay home,” Osterholm said. “Somebody’s got to move the food, take away the garbage, provide health care, law enforcement, to assure that communications continues. … We will very much put at risk things like electricity, food.” <snip>

http://www.mytelus.com/news/article.do?pageID=cp_health_home&articleID=2430625

With Osterholm’s comments, he does not believe people should be staying at home and that this would ensure an economic collapse. With everyone continuing to go to work and school, it will ensure the fast spread of the virus should it become pandemic. He states these plans are too simplistic - well, what could be done? Do you force these people to work? How can we, as a society, create a situation to keep society functioning, but still reduce the risk of becoming infected to a minimal level? I have no good answer. Any comments?

cottontop – at 17:15

DennisC-

these links are so maddening!

Ok. medindia.com/news/ click on the sparrow in china story. Scroll down, it’s on the right hand side. The story is current. I posted this a couple of days ago. Growing concern though.

Sorry for the delay.

Green Mom – at 17:16

Our local Public Radio (Western Kentucky University)had a little snippet on their “MidDay Edition” about the Harvard Study, which is a little odd because they tend to focus on Local/regionasl news and not cover “Harvard Studies”. Yesterday, they did a fifteen minent “Words on Wellness” on the flu and stress the importance of getting a flu shot-they did NOT talk about bird flu, but did mention that “Flu this year may be more severe than in past years…..” I’m thinking W.O.W. might be a pre-recorded PSA- it comes on once a week. This station has, back in the spring done a fifteen minent bit on “Avian Bird Flu’which was pretty decent. They didn’t Pooh-pooh it at any rate. Odd that flu is on two days in a row, but probably is just a coincidence.

I missed the NPR spot, but our station repeats the first hour so I’ll try to catch it. (Don’t know why they repeat the first hour, and not the second) Thanks for the heads up,Sniffles.

cottontop – at 17:17

DennisC- www.medindia.com/news/

sorry.

DennisCat 17:24

cottontop – at 17:17 thanks

Klatu – at 20:05

26 October 2006

U.N. Official Sees Bird Flu as Threat for Next Decade

Indonesian human death rate distressing, coordinator Nabarro says

“A dog has a close encounter with a chicken at a poultry market in Nanjing, east China’s Jiangsu province. (© AP Images) United Nations — Bird flu is likely to remain a health threat to animals, and possibly humans, for the next decade, the U.N. coordinator for avian influenza says.

Dr. David Nabarro said October 23 that the avian influenza virus H5N1 “still is a major animal health issue for most of the world and we think it’s going to stay that way for five, perhaps 10 years, to come.”

Health experts predict the virus will be an ongoing threat because of its highly pathogenic nature and its capability to survive in some species of wild birds for long periods without harming those species. These bird varieties then become carriers of the virus, transmitting it to more vulnerable bird populations.

Another factor adding to the health threat is the virus’ ability to spread by a variety of mechanisms — wild bird migration, trade in animals and poor biosecurity practices in agriculture.”

http://tinyurl.com/yetmo6

Klatu – at 20:12

Dr. David Nabarro said October 23:

“…we think it’s going to stay that way (H5N1/a major animal health issue) for five, perhaps 10 years, to come.”


What changes in 5-to-10-years ? For better or worse, and why?

Monotreme – at 20:46

Arizona, USA

Pandemic drill features free flu shots

Moeding-Evans, personnel director for the Town of Gilbert, was one of hundreds of people who participated in a town-sponsored immunization drill Wednesday evening at McQueen Park Activity Center. The drill simulated a mass vaccination clinic that could be used during a flu pandemic.

[snip]

As the taskforce reviews its findings from the exercise, Gilbert’s next focus will be public education, recommending residents get seasonal flu shots via public service announcements on local access television, Gibbons said.

[snip]

The town anticipates up to 50 percent of its staff would be unable to work during a pandemic, and departments have been cross-training employees for several months to continue essential services like wastewater treatment and trash pick-up, said Greg Svelund, a town spokesman.

http://tinyurl.com/ylbr8s

Monotreme – at 20:48

Ireland

Life or death choices if flu pandemic hits Ireland

If the Irish health service hopes to contain a lethal or severe influenza pandemic, people in cities will have to be treated first, a US expert on pandemics has told Irish Medical Times.

Prof Frederick Burkle, a Senior Fellow with the Harvard Humanitarian Initiative at Harvard University’s School of Public Health, said doctors and policymakers would have to make hard decisions in the event of a flu pandemic, including who does and does not receive treatment.

[snip]

“The individual is really not important. My goal is to make sure that every patient will never transmit it to somebody else. In a normal ICU situation, you have a special nurse, two or three other nurses, and a whole team of doctors. In (a pandemic), it will be like Africa. The definition of intensive care of a hospital in Africa is that you might have a nurse that day,” he said.

http://tinyurl.com/yku7rb

Monotreme – at 20:50

Massachusetts, USA

Surviving pandemic focal point of forum

he topic was pandemic flu, but Hurricane Katrina kept on coming up as a model of what not to do when planning how to protect the most vulnerable people when emergencies strike.

From flu to floods, identifying people in need is the key to managing disasters of any scope, about 80 people at the Worcester YWCA heard yesterday from speakers and participants. They represented immigrants, people who don’t speak English, people with disabilities, homeless people and the agencies that serve them. The program, called “Connecting the Dots from City to Community to Vulnerable Population: Surviving a Flu Pandemic,” was the second of four forums in the state organized by the Massachusetts Public Health Association.

[snip]

About 30 percent of the population would get sick in a pandemic’s first wave, experts estimate, which means about 2 million of the 6.4 million people in Massachusetts would fall ill over about six to eight weeks, said Lisa Crowner, a health educator from the state Department of Public Health’s division of epidemiology and immunization. Half of them would seek outpatient care, 80,000 would be hospitalized and 20,000 would die.

“Those numbers are very scary,” she said. “As health care providers, if 30 percent of our work force is sick, how are we going to provide lifesaving service to those with the highest needs?”

http://tinyurl.com/yglbuh

Monotreme – at 20:54

Michigan, USA

County prepares for pandemic outbreak emergency through training exercise

Emergency management personnel in the 13-county region participated in the training scenario designed to mimic closely a true pandemic outbreak.

[snip]

Taranko said part of the simulation was getting the various departments to realize that in the case of a pandemic, they will likely have to operate with reduced staffs because a portion will likely become infected.

[snip]

The county will also conduct a first-of-its-kind mass inoculation drill, tentatively scheduled at Ludington High School for Nov. 1.

http://tinyurl.com/yk488n

Monotreme – at 20:55

Vaccine

Glaxo says more govts plan to buy bird flu vaccine

GlaxoSmithKline Plc <GSK.L> expects to sign more contracts to supply governments with its experimental bird flu vaccine for humans, following purchases by Switzerland and an unidentified Asian country.

“Between now and Christmas, I expect we will sign a few more in Europe and elsewhere,” Chief Executive Jean-Pierre Garnier told analysts in a post-results conference call.

Europe’s biggest drugmaker announced earlier this month that the Swiss Federal Office of Public Health had ordered 8 million doses of its H5N1 vaccine to protect its entire population in the event of an influenza pandemic, which many experts fear may be triggered by bird flu.

[snip]

Rival companies including Sanofi-Aventis <SASY.PA>, Novartis AG <NOVN.VX> and Baxter International Inc. <BAX.N> are also racing to develop pandemic H5N1 vaccines.

http://tinyurl.com/yjfc3e

johnO – at 20:57

Nice conservative death rate of 1%, but scary enough. But there’s no talk of all the collateral social/economic problems. The article mentions how some susceptible portion of the population will have bigger problems, but it seems to me either the forum, or the author of the article, only scratched the surface. The report doesn’t feel like anything new.

Jane – at 20:58

Op-ed piece by Lawrence Wein in New York Times-urges immediate ramping up of manufacturing of face masks, both N-95 and surgical. In his studies, surgical face masks (with nylon stockings over them to make them fit tightly) provide good protection. Also virus doesn’t live long on them, so they can be reused “until they disintegrate.” Also window fans in an open window and humidifiers help. In passing, says schools should be closed.

(registration is required for this site) face masks the best protection

anknon – at 21:18

Please have patience with me, and forgive me for my ignorance in scientific knowledge, but, what is this news article saying?” Report Casts Doubt on Flu Vaccine Effectiveness” see: link

Is it alluding to nothing or something???? such as,- a) let’s get the ‘old’ folks or maybe everyone? convinced that there is no benefit to a vaccination? b) let’s start frustrating the science so people then become tired of the science and then complacent? c) let’s start helping the pharmaceutical companies have some leeway? d) let’s not tell them that the current vaccine has problems? e) let’s not tell them that there is actually not enough viable vaccine this year? f) let’s gradually let them, ?, down?

Way more questions, but my fingers are done for the night.

cottontop – at 21:21

Joint USDA and DOI news release:Confirmatory Avian Influenza Test Complete On Ohio Duck Samples-New Public Noticication Protocal Announces

www.USDA.gov

Monotreme – at 21:23

USA, OSHA

OSHA Hopes to Publish Flu Pandemic Guidance Documents Soon

Foulke also noted that the agency currently is engaged in a national effort to prepare a coordinated emergency response to a possible flu pandemic.

According to Foulke, OSHA has been examining workplace safety and health concerns related to this threat for nearly a year. Committees of OSHA employees have helped develop a group of guidance documents that focus on recognizing and combating the hazards of a pandemic.

“We hope to publish these documents very soon, and at this conference you will learn more about the valuable information they contain,” Foulke said.

http://tinyurl.com/y59v7b

Tom DVM – at 21:34

anknon.

Interesting moniker!! Welcome to flu wiki or I should maybe proabably say welcome to posting at flu wiki…it seems new posters are most often longtime lurkers.

I see that you have chosen a Canadian reference…if you are Canadian we have a thread called Canadian Preppers.

The bottom line is that there is nothing other than anecdotal evidence that current influenza technology works. We keep hearing that it works but no evidence ever seems to be avaliable to back up the statement.

Saying only that the benefit outweighs the harm…really isn’t saying much if, as estimated, one in a million are injured by the vaccine.

You might find the following interesting…

http://www.washingtonfreepress.org/70/fluVaccineMissingTheMark.htm

82 million US.people are vaccinated per year against flu 15% of US-people get flu each year 36000 deaths per year 25% of vaccinations are effective so 82million vaccinations save 2500 lifes per year in USA.

assuming a probability of only 2% per year (as the mortality-bonds suggest) for a H5N1 pandemic worse than 1918, that’s an expectation value of at least 40000 deaths per year. Assume the CFR is 2.5% as in 1918, suppose the prepandemic vaccine has a 10% chance of protection, that’s an estimated 1000 of saved lifes per year. That ignores the discussion about side-effects which would only be 10% with panflu-vaccine. And this assumes 1918 as worst case. It’s not so easy to decide… The clear decision pro H3N2 suggests, that you and the authorities don’t consider the threat as big as I had thought :-)

Note: This is a post from Effect Measure on Oct. 22.

I believe it was posted by our friend gs. Maybe he could elaborate further on the subject.

johnO – at 21:41

I hope this is appropriate here. Please forgive me if not and suggest where it would be.

After reading the Massachussetts forum piece, I can’t help but feel like we’ve reached the limits of willingness to prepare given the current situation with AI (WHO at level 3 still, enough other pathogens going on that are truly remarkable to watch, but still not certain we’re closer to any kind of pandemic). It seems like so many recent news articles are just ‘bumps’ that keep the overall awareness going, but nothing new. I am personally beginning to feel a tension that I don’t think will be relieved until something happens. I wish things would ratchet down a bit and that news reports would be more substantial, or just quiet down.

Tom DVM – at 21:55

Hi John O. I can understand how you feel. I guess we all come to the subject with individual expertise.

I have been an amazed observer of pathogens in nature for more than twenty-years. I have learned that our five senses only give us a peak at what pathogens are doing…we see only the tip of the iceburg.

I am very aware of the threat that H5N1 presents to each of us and our family…but tracking the little sucker is a scientific passion…more or less.

In my opinion, the relative silence at the moment means nothing. It doesn’t mean H5N1 is going away and it doesn’t mean that H5N1 is going to jump tomorrow morning.

Let me put it this way…it is all about ‘CRITICAL MASS’…once critical mass is reached, we humans have lost control and biological probabilities take over.

H5N1 has reached critical mass in concentration in Asia (endemic), in geographical spread to all areas except the Americas and most disturbingly in a wide variety of mammalian and avian species…and even more troubling…it has infected animals never before infected with H5N1 and now appears to infect a number of species asymptomatically.

anknon – at 22:07

Dear Tom DVM - thank you for your explanation and for being a someone that looks out for and cares about, all creatures, great and small.

Tom DVM – at 22:22

anknon. Thanks.

Please stay with us…your input is much appreciated.

27 October 2006

AnnieBat 00:11

I am about to create the News Summary for today then I will start a new thread.

You might like to hold your post for about 30 minutes.

Cheers and thanks.

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.NewsReportsForOctober26
Page last modified on October 27, 2006, at 12:11 AM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Oct 21 Northern VAMDDC Preppers Meet in Person

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Oct 21 Northern VAMDDC Preppers Meet in Person

IMPORTANT INFORMATION

04 October 2006

senegal1 – at 22:47

Calling all Preppers from Northern Virginia, Maryland, DC to meet in person (and anyone else).

Senegal1 invites you to meet in person with each other in the Great Falls Library in the meeting room on October 21st at 12–4PM (although we don`t have to go on that long). I will provide refershments and I sure hope you all come!

Here is the address: Great Falls Public Library, 9830 Georgetown Pike, Great Falls, VA 22066. The website for the library is http://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/library/branches/gf/

The website for the county plans for pandemic flu is http://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/emergency/pandemicflu/

Please RSVP on this thread so I have some idea of how much food to make. Also there could be a nice hike afterwards! Hope to see you there!

06 October 2006

Chesapeake – at 10:24

senegal1, Is this a casual get-together to meet and share ideas and such? Are there going to be guest speakers from the county or other other areas of business? Have you invited the general public? Sorry for all the questions, just wanting to clarify. Thanks

07 October 2006

Chesapeake – at 08:09

??? bump ???

crfullmoon – at 09:48

Are you inviting any local press; do they need a prep story, 12 months after the pandemicflu.gov site went up?

anonymous – at 11:56

Oh phooey. I’m double-booked and I have to go to the other event because it’s work-related. Please post how it goes. Would love to get together with others in the area sometime. Maybe at a local Silver Diner or something? — Libby

libbyalex – at 11:58

oops. anonymous is me, libbyalex. Tossed my cookies last night.

09 October 2006

Chesapeake – at 07:36

bump one last time

senegal1 – at 16:34

Sorry. Been a bit busy. Inviting anyone on this forum for this informal meeting. On the other thread there were a number of people in the area who wanted to get together and didn`t seem to be able to do it. I plan on meeting with folks from 12 to 2 to discuss things and get to know folks in our area and then invite folks in the community (Great Falls) from 2 to 4. Its just to get started. I hope people from this forum will attend. I also plan on attending the regional seminar in Dc on Oct 23rd as well. There is some nice hiking in the area and I will be happy to prepare food and drink. We can discuss where we are in prepping, what are the various counties doing to prepare, etc. I am going to put something in the press to inform people of the meeting but wasn`t going to create anything for the press or suggest they cover the meeting as its the first one.

On the fence and leaning – at 23:06

If you put something in the press, you may get more than you bargained for. You might have to buy LOTS of refreshments. I would love to go but I am taking my Tiger Cub Den to a field trip that day for a badge. If it falls through, I will certainly be there!

12 October 2006

senegal1 – at 17:44

I doubt if I will get a lot of people just by putting something in the press but that would be nice!

crfullmoon – at 20:18

Could invite some local reporters, if they promised to not name names. Haha. Invite the librarians.

Did you put something in the regional threads here?

13 October 2006

senegal1 – at 14:41

Yes. I started on the regional thread and then posted this one here for visibility.

15 October 2006

senegal1 – at 19:01

bump

anon_22 – at 19:04

Do you know how many people are coming?

Grace RN – at 21:09

Is it strictly for just that region-I’m from NJ and would like to go.

anon_22 – at 21:35

Grace,

I’m from the UK and I’m most likely going. What do you think? :-)

Grace RN – at 21:42

Well said anon_22!!

:)

Grace RN – at 21:45

I plan to be there-can I bring something to help senegal1?

16 October 2006

anon_22 – at 12:43

ATTENTION I just posted the following on the upcoming conferences thread. I have a suggestion: how many of you might be able to stay over and attend that? I have to fly out on the 24th but this I think is probably one of the most important issues to be discussed. This is not just a ‘talking’ seminar, but is supposed to be used to direct policy. AND it allows audience participation and representation.

I am thinking… maybe we should turn the Oct 21 meeting into preparation workshop for this one, and figure out what should be said by citizens and have someone go and say it?


The Institute of Medicine (IOM) is conducting an expedited review of the role of community-based mitigation strategies during an influenza pandemic. A workshop on this topic will be held on Wednesday, October 25 & Thursday, October 26, 2006 and will be open to the public. The meeting will be held at the PAHO Building, Room A, 525 23rd Street, NW, Washington, DC 20037. This workshop is part of the information gathering process of the IOM committee reviewing this issue.

The committee will prepare a report based primarily on information from the workshop that will include conclusions and recommendations, based upon available evidence, regarding:

The workshop format will allow for dialogue among workshop presenters, the committee, and the audience. To view the full statement of task of the committee, please see the project website at http://www.iom.edu/CMS/3793/37624.aspx.

The draft agenda for this meeting will be posted to the project’s website closer to the meeting date (http://www.iom.edu/CMS/3793/37624/37630.aspx).

If you would like to attend the meeting, please register online at http://www8.nationalacademies.org/isc-registration/public/default.asp?event=AD6077FE by 5:00pm Eastern on October 23, 2005, and provide your name and contact information. You will receive an email confirmation of your registration within 24 hours. As for all IOM meetings, registration is free.

IMPORTANT POST anon_22 – at 12:45
IMPORTANT POST anon_22 – at 12:54
Grace RN – at 13:45

I can’t get time from work to go but would have loved to go…

my coworker on our local board of health is presenting her abstract on this exact topic 11/7/06 at the APHA meeting in Boston.

Average Concerned Mom – at 15:15

This is on a Saturday? I would very much like to come and meet people and talk! I think I can make it.

I would LOVE to attend the Institute of Medicine Conference on the 25th and 26th but probably cannot arrange full day child care.

Quick question — wasn’t the IOM doing a conference on the 23rd? Is this instead of or in additin to?

crfullmoon – at 15:23
 “open to the public” -Too bad it’s not online!

;-)

Malachi – at 15:38

I just thought I would pop into this conversation and say that a week ago I got to meet a fellow fluwikian for coffee and very much enjoyed the experience.

OnandAnonat 15:56

have another conference so will not attend.

anon_22 – at 18:16

Average Concerned Mom – at 15:15

Oct 23 is this one National Academies Roundtable Workshop 18: Citizen Engagement in Emergency Planning for a Flu Pandemic

18 October 2006

senegal1 – at 12:02

Ok yes anyone who wants to meet in person at the Great Falls Library this Oct 21 is welcome. PLEASE I WOULD LOVE TO SEE SOME FOLKS THERE!

Sorry we won`t see you Grace RN. Its a very pleasant area. I also plan on attending the Oct 23rd Roundtable mentioned above and maybe the Oct 25th as well.

On another note, I just talked to the Director for Public Health for Fairfax County. Her name is Gloria Addo-Ayensu. Very on top of Pandemic Flu and has a very good presentation which pulls no punches. She is happy to come out and speak for any group or have someone come out and speak. In addition, Fairfax County will be re-doing a number of workshops for faith based, business, and schools on planning for pandemic. We need to turn out people in our communities for these workshops.

Next, I went to talk to my church (UU Reston). While they knew nothing about pandemic flu, they mentioned I had come just in time as they were wondering how to get someone to come give the flu shots. As we spoke there was interest and willingness to work on the issue through the social action committee. I asked about putting up a poster that I could change with new information every week and they said no problem.

Next, I went to my local school. I talked with the nurse who immediately pointed to an upcoming agenda item for a meeting of school nurses again given by Dr. Addo-Ayensu on Pandemic Flu. However the nurse herself knew very little. At the same time the regional school nurse was there making the round of the school. She went to great pains to tell me that they have plans and described some of them. She was receptive. I then talked to the Principal and left some literature and said I would be happy to help organize outreach to parents. I also asked if I could put up a poster about Pandemic Flu with information that I would change one a week or so. He will think about it.

Overall, here is what I learned. Fairfax County, mainly due to the Director of Public Health, has a realistic idea of what could happen. They also have a top down process for preparedness which is focused on creating plans. Also some actual action items seem to be in place. However, much of the planning is based on emergency response to a range of emergencies rather than specific for Pandemic. This is very true at the local school level. In addition, it became clear to me that we are really lacking bottom up organization. It`s fine that the school has a plan but the principal doesn`t live in the area nor do many of the teachers. In addition, people in the same community don`t know each other and can`t call each other. The school principal doesn`t know the grocery store owner, the library Board of Director, the head of the Great Falls Citizen`s Association, ect. because again he doesn`t live in the community. The communication linkages are verticle between principals at schools and there are few horizontal linkages within communities. When a pandemic happens its the horizontal linkages which will be most valuable if a response is to be coordinated on a local level.

Anon 58 – at 12:28

Great job…I can’t nmake it Saturday due to other event commitment but live near you and appreciate your work. I have previously called Fairfax schools and country --- I think this is important because the more they hear from us the more they know there are local citizens interested. Citizen interest level will spur local action.

I will also recount a call to a college - it was clear I was the first parent to show an interest. The college health directers clearly was overwhelmed struggling with what to do. She was also getting push back from others who either said it wouldn’t happen or if it did no plan could/would be adequate. I told here that as a parent “no plan” was not an option. Parents will not accept “we didn’t know what to do or we didn’t think it would happen”. I gave her some suggestions (limited but a start). I didn’t want to overwhelm her further. She seemed grateful for having someone care about what she faced and show and interest. I will folow up with her again and probably elevate my concern to higher levels of the college administration. The college is out of state and it is essential I know how this will be handled.

I encourage everyone as part of your preps to make calls to local and state governments, schools, colleges, utilities and ask if they are prepared. If not advise them “no plan is not an option.” Follow up later. Every voice matters now- not later. Be sane - be calm - be vocal. You are an asset - they need your help even if they don’t know it.

amak – at 18:27

So how many are coming so far? Benn lurking - not sure I can make it. If it rains, I can…

senegal1 – at 21:12

Well then I will pray for rain! I don`t know its hard to tell. Four people from the other thread said they were coming. I would be surprised if for this first meeting it has more than ten or so. But we really need to start — I will suggest 30 minutes getting to know each other, personal preps ect; then 1 hour discussion of the Fairfax county plan and any other plans from other areas if we have additional out of area folks. Then 30 minutes for personal action plans for the next month. After that we can adjourn or maybe some folks from the community around me will come (doubtful but possible) and otherwise we can hang out some more or leave.

I agree with Anon 58 that we need to start being the squeaky wheel.

senegal1 – at 22:39

I also agree with Anon 22 about coming up with policy input for the conference on Oct 25th if at all possible.

My new count has 8 or 9 people as possibles out of 50 names of people I count who are in the area.

On the fence and leaning – at 22:52

Grrrrrr. Between my kid’s Scouts and the last soccer game of the season, I won’t be able to make it. Doesn’t look like rain either…. :-( Have a good time and take good notes!

19 October 2006

Thom – at 06:42

senegal1 - Sorry but I also cannot make it - have closing on my new house (Lake Anna) which is another 40 south, so I’ll be even farther away on Saturday.

As with ‘On the fence’ above, please take good notes.

Chesapeake – at 08:01

Another sorry, I too will be a no show.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 08:12

senegal1 – at 22:47 This is such a great gesture on your part & I hope that at least a few folks get to meet each other. I had been wondering how this was going & thought it was last week — keep bumping this up so others in your area will be reminded & good luck from this girl down South.

senegal1 – at 19:53

Thanks. You’re very kind. I would like to see at least a couple of people at the meeting. I think forums are great things but there is a lot to be said for the energy that comes from coordinating with people in person.

anon_22 – at 21:06

senegal1,

I’ve finally sorted out my timing and I’m definitely going to be there. So that’s at least 2, you, and me. :-)

I’m having a weird PC problem where I can’t access any of my several web-based email accounts, so I can’t email anyone. I believe you gave me your phone no before but I can’t access it now! I don’t know whether it is a temporary problem with the hotel, or something more serious! So I’m going to say yes to your suggestion for my travel arrangements here. Please email Dem with your phone no and stuff again, and I will call him later for that.

Yeah, he gets to be telephone exchange, on top of everything else. LOL

On the fence and leaning – at 22:15

OK, I’m curious; what will the name tags say? ;-)

20 October 2006

anon_22 – at 09:24

On the fence and leaning – at 22:15

OK, I’m curious; what will the name tags say? ;-)

I guess you can draw a picture on yours :-)

libbyalex – at 09:36

I’m going to TRY to come (my schedule got changed). Hope I can make it. I’ve printed out the directions and am all set.

Grace RN – at 09:50

I’ll be there (was hoping to go to the APHA convention in Boston, but that fell thru) so I’ll be there!!

anon_22 – at 09:51

YAY! More people!

drd191 – at 11:43

I have been having problems posting to this site, so I hope this gets through. I will be there on Saturday as well, and will be attending the conferences on the 23rd and the 25/26. I look forward to meeting everyone.

Anon 58 – at 14:03

US Dept. Education web cast archive link - send this to local officials, schools, colleges. Very helpful. Make your neighbors and others aware of it.

The archived video is finally up at the Ed Department site.

http://tinyurl.com/yx9dqf

Anon 58 – at 20:44

Plans have changed maybe able to attend.

anon_22 – at 22:18

Hi y’all, I’m afraid I’m going to have to skip this. I drove through some of the worst rainstorm today, took me 5 hours to do 130 miles, and got really ill towards the end, being stuck in traffic in the tunnels.

What’s worse than driving through pelting rain, low visibility, and strong winds on a Friday afternoon on the I-90? It’s driving through pelting rain, low visibility, and strong winds on a Friday afternoon on the I-90 while fighting jetlag and reacting to either the traffic fumes or whatever chemicals rental companies use to clean the car, or both.

Anyway, now I have a combination of asthma, trigeminal neuralgia, and jetlag.

I’m hanging in there till I can get a flight to DC in the morning. I need to just go straight to the hotel and sleep. In my experience, that’s the only treatment to stop trigeminal neuralgia.

Sorry, and hope everyone has a good time.

Tom DVM – at 22:20

anon 22. You take care of yourself. This is a marathon…not a sprint!!

anon_22 – at 22:22

Can someone make sure Senegal1 sees this, cos I still can’t get to my email account? Like bump it or email her if you have her email address. I need to go to bed.

Thanks.

senegal1 – at 22:39

Oh sorry guys! I worked all day then had a bunch of stuff to do tonight and just got in. You mean that someone might actually show up tomorrow?! That would be great. Sorry that Anon 22 will not be there. I understand fully. I am looking forward to seeing folks! I am sure this will be productive!

21 October 2006

Pixie – at 05:18

I thought this might be of interest to some of your VA area residents:

Richmond, VA, public health pandemic exercise Oct. 23–24.

WHAT: The Virginia Department of Health (VDH) will take part in a two-day, statewide public health exercise to evaluate response and recovery operations in the event of a pandemic influenza outbreak. State public health officials will conduct a media briefing during the exercise scheduled for Oct. 23–24. VDH, its statewide network of district health departments and numerous partners such as hospitals, emergency management and public safety agencies will use the FLUEX 06 exercise to assess emergency response plans and identify areas for improvement.

WHEN: 10:30 a.m., Oct. 23, 2006

WHERE: Virginia Department of Health, Fifth Floor Conference Room, 109 Governor Street, Richmond, Va.

Media may join the briefing via phone by calling 800–337–3137, and entering the pass code 7008. Please mute your phone. Questions will be taken at the conclusion of the briefing.

WHY: To provide a rare firsthand look at state public health operations during an exercise. Officials will provide insight and context on the operation of the Emergency Coordination Center, outline the steps VDH has taken to prepare for the exercise and explain the benefits of the statewide exercise to Virginia residents. Exercises like FLUEX 06 assess the abilities of Virginia’s emergency response agencies to respond to people’s health needs during large-scale emergencies such as pandemic flu or hurricanes.

WHO: The following VDH staff will participate in the briefing:

— Robert B. Stroube, M.D., M.P.H., State Health Commissioner

— Lisa Kaplowitz, M.D., M.S.H.A., Deputy Commissioner for Emergency Preparedness and Response

— Robert P. Mauskapf, M.P.A., Col. U.S. Marine Corps Retired, State Emergency Planning Coordinator, director of VDH’s Emergency Command Center and exercise coordinator

— Charles Konigsberg, M.D., M.P.H., Alexandria Health District Director

— Diane Powers, Director of Communications

Contact: Diane Powers, 804–864–7008; Kelly Lobanov, 804–864–7553; Cheryle Rodriguez, 804–225–4590; Larry Hill, 757–683–9175; Lucy Caldwell, 703–934–0623; Robert Parker, 540–381–7100, ext. 151; all of the Virginia Department of Health

senegal1 – at 09:53

Thanks much! We will discuss this today at our meeting and see if we can generate interest in our area on attending! Great!

anonymous – at 10:51

Is there a meeting room number or is there only one meeting room at this place?

libbyalex – at 13:09

I’m so sorry I’m not there! My babysitter cancelled at 11:30 this morning. HOpefully, we’ll soon have another opportunity to gather.

senegal1 – at 21:20

Well we had a good meeting. I hope I didn`t talk too much. I will write up a quick summary later. Thanks Anon 58, Grace RN, LizJ, Amak and DRD 191 for coming! Sorry we didn`t see you Libbyalex and Anon 22 hopefully another time. Grace RN, LizJ, Anon 58, Amak, DRD 191 I hope you`ll write your views on the usefulness of getting together. I will certainly keep emailing you all for more great ideas. Grace RN I love the summer camp idea! Thanks again for coming!

Grace RN – at 21:24

senegal1 – at 21:20

Stop it- you were fine. Thank DH again for lunch. It was great and I kept having more ideas all the way home.

It was wonderful to talk to more than one person who truly ‘gets it’. My battery’s recharged.

senegal1 – at 22:08

Me too! I felt a lot better after meeting. You all had some super ideas and its wonderful to exchange ideas in person. I am getting the book and radio ect. I will email you again for a description of cooking in a cardboard box.

anon_22 – at 22:10

Glad you guys had a good time…

I need to get well faster…

anonymous – at 22:13

I agree! It was great to put real names and faces to our handles and just to have a real conversation with people on the same page - priceless! I think sometimes only being able to deal with your fears, frustrations, accomplishments in prepping, etc online can add to the “am I alone in this & crazy” feeling & to really see other people - real live people -who you can speak to about this and they don’t flinch and glaze over - well worth the drive to me!!

I think it has recharged me too as I was fizzling a bit lately. I will definitely keep you all posted on any headway I can make on getting some community prep going around here - today’s meeting was the kick in the butt I needed to get me trying again.

And senegal1 - thanks also for the snacks and lunch!

amak – at 22:18

oops - that was me - cookie issue…

libbyalex – at 22:27

Any plans to get together again?

senegal1 – at 22:48

I think we may try to do a conference call next. Grace RN suggested emails. libbyalex my email is in my profile so email me using your handle in the subject.

Grace RN – at 22:57

Re: cooking in a cardboard box:

http://www.macscouter.com/Cooking/BoxOven.html

http://www.mitsu4wdclubqld.org/tips/kampkitch/tips-cooking-cardboardbox.htm

http://www.aaoobfoods.com/carboardboxoven.htm

 OR: “To conserve heat and thereby get the maximum heat value from your charcoal you must learn to funnel the heat where you want it rather than letting it dissipate into the air around you. One excellent way to do this is to cook inside a cardboard oven. Take a cardboard box, about the size of an orange crate, and cover it with aluminum foil inside and out. Be sure that the shiny side is visible so that maximum reflectivity is achieved. Turn the box on its side so that the opening is no longer on the top but is on the side. Place some small bricks or other noncombustible material inside upon which you can rest a cookie sheet about two or three inches above the bottom of the box. Place ten burning charcoal briquettes between the bricks (if you need 400 degrees), place the support for your cooking vessels, and then place your bread pans or whatever else you are using on top of the cookie sheet. Prop a foil-covered cardboard lid over the open side, leaving a large crack for air to get in (charcoal needs a lot of air to burn) and bake your bread, cake, cookies, etc. just like you would in your regular oven. Your results will amaze you.

To make your own charcoal, select twigs, limbs, and branches of fruit, nut and other hardwood trees; black walnuts and peach or apricot pits may also be used. Cut wood into desired size, place in a large can which has a few holes punched in it, put a lid on the can and place the can in a hot fire. When the flames from the holes in the can turn yellow-red, remove the can from the fire and allow it to cool. Store the briquettes in a moisture-proof container. Burn charcoal only in a well-ventilated area.”

I recommend practicing this first, and always do it outside!!

drd191 – at 23:01

I was going to wait until tomorrow, but I will just add my thanks now to Senegal1 for taking the initiative to get us together. It was wonderful. As we talked about different videos related to avian influenza and pandemic flu that are on-line, it was suggested that maybe there can be somewhere on Fluwikie where people can post video and audio links (with a short description). I know of several great videos, but it has taken me a while to find the old links. Tomorrow I hope to send that list to the group of us that met today, but I will also post it here.

I guess the moderators would have to set up a page/space to list the videos and the links in some organized fashion. Or maybe someone reading the post can do that?

I hope Senegal1 shares with everyone her great idea concerning grocery stores.

Senegal1 and I will attend the meeting on October 23 and of course Anon_22 will be speaking. If others are attending that meeting, maybe we can get together afterwards for dinner --- or just a drink to meet. Likewise for the meetings on 25 & 26.

22 October 2006

Anon 58 – at 14:34

Enjoyed meeting everyone. Thanks for the treats.

This is the group that held the conference in New York I refered to yesterday - link at end of posting. They have them scheduled are around the country over the next year June 07 DC. New York was impressive. Looks like Philedelphia is next - site has registration info.

‘Prepared. Not Scared.’ Next Stop - Philadelphia, November 14 Safe America’s initiative to prepare U.S. corporations for a Pandemic is moving full speed ahead. More than 350 business, civic and community leaders have attended the first two summits in New York and Chicago. The next stop will be the Philadelphia area on November 14. The conference will be hosted by the Campbell Soup Company and will be held at Campbell’s Dorrance Center, in Camden. N.J. An exciting and informative agenda is being developed including presentations by leading authorities from Homeland Security, the CDC and major international corporations. Additional summits are planned for the following cities San Diego and Los Angeles, Calif.; Kansas City, Mo.; Chicago; Omaha, NE; Atlanta; and Washington, D.C. Motorola is the official national sponsor of the ‘Prepared. Not Scaredª’ series of major summits, along with PA Consulting, JPS/Raytheon, Sprint and Booz Allen Hamilton. The Department of Homeland Security, the VA and the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) are also collaborating in this program.

www.safeamerica.org

Anon 58 – at 14:54

Also look at podcasts, check lists and other tools on safeamerica.org

senegal1 – at 21:46

Great. I will use this to try to get some of the strategic businesses in my area to go. My local hardware store, my local grocery store, my local computer fixit store. Thanks for this. I also just sent out this interesting article on Vitamin D and flu to you all on email. I don`t know how to link up stuff so if someone does and this hasn`t been put on the Flu Wikie before I would appreciate putting it on or however one does that dealing with copywrite issues.

26 October 2006

crfullmoon – at 10:04

“just to have a real conversation with people on the same page - priceless!”

Yay! :-)

senegal1 – at 22:24

Yes it was great! But I need to have some time to try to keep up the momentum. I met some interesting people at the conference on Monday as well and I need to see if there is any way to get a conference call going. Maybe skype but I think you can only skype so many people (4 I thought?). Any suggestions crfullmoon or any one else?

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.Oct21NorthernVAMDDCPreppersMeetInPerson
Page last modified on October 26, 2006, at 10:24 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / SKG Bird Flu Vax Commercial

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: SKG Bird Flu Vax Commercial

26 October 2006

Goju – at 07:59

Anyone seen the GlaxoSmithKline Bird Flu Vax commercial?

Yup - seen it several times now. DW saw it first and told me they have a vax!!!!!! Not to worry.

I saw it - they talk about developing a vax to keep us safe from BF. It sounds like they are making the vax to save us all… but if you listen closely, they say they are “developing” a vax. They do make it sound as if BF is H2H though…. frightening if you know what that means.

They also mention Relenza.

It is a commercial meant to reassure that everything is being done to keep us safe. Very well shot and produced.

Makes me think we have a “situation” developing just around the corner.

Goju – at 08:00

here is their website

http://www.gsk.com/infocus/influenza.htm

JWB – at 08:06

….In this case, the World Health Organization would alert governments on how to tackle the outbreak. ….

OoooooooKay

cottontop – at 08:11

Goju-

from lack of news anywhere, lack of military activity,(especially around here. Fort Drum is always very active), increased bird flu in the on-line news, states putting out their prepardness plan, a “miracle” vaccine that is going to save us, China “conquers” bird flu, Who roumored to raise alert level, what is all of this saying to you?

Goju – at 09:04

H5N1 is spreading in birds around the globe. H5N1 is diversifying into a multitude of strains. There is limited H2H. Symptoms and CFR are changing with each new strain (read “is there something about all that dengue, Chik and undiagnosed viral illnesses we don’t know?)

My gut feeling is that H5N1 will go pandemic in a flash (Nabbarro’s opinion too) and we’d better hope that the strain that goes is NOT the indo one.

Unfortunately I think it will… i think TPTB think so too. I think TPTB know it will be devastating and there is nothing they can do about it anymore. There is not enough food in the supply chains to prep everyone within the timeframe needed (which no one can say a timeframe for sure anyway). The “cut and run” technique is being employed. Keep the top safe (read Gov, Military, Biz) and when the smoke clears, pick up the pieces (unlike nuke war, infrastructure will be mostly unaffected).

TPTB will keep the public off balance by keeping them focused on “other” events. Mention of BF will be in a reassuring tone. The pandemic will not be announced until it is upon us and all the “top” is safely on their way to SIP.

Our military around the world will circle their wagons and wait it out. Watch for pull backs to central locations (ie - redeployment of forces in Iraq - read “giving the Iraqies more responsibility”). With our troops out of action, regional conflicts will flare up and borders will be redrawn (hope not by Nukes - read “NK vs SK, Pakastan Vs India, China vs SEA/Japan”). Then the troops will be reallocated to where we can do the most good (read - “easy way out of Iraq? - bring the boys home in time for the next election”)

As the news dries up, i get more nervous because i know that H5N1 is NOT going away. I know it IS spreading. I know it is DIVERSIFYING. It is only a matter of time before it hits the right combination and circumstance for pandemic to start. It will circle the globe faster than we can post “OMG!” And that ambulence you hear out your window may hold the first case in your town before you read it on the CNN crawl.

WHO is making very interesting moves with picking a new leader and forming the emergency team. Their press releases are grim. The GKS ad makes me twitch. It really sounds as if pandemic H2H has begun… another “don’t worry, we have it all under control”.

On the other hand, maybe there is no news because there is no news, there will be a universal miricle vax developed that can be sprayed into the air and we are all safe once again - where my cheeseburger and fries at?

cottontop – at 09:15

I believe China is misleading the people by claiming it had eradicated bird flu, and, feeling a litle too presumpitious. There are many factors that can not be controlled, many equations that can not be foreseen. They cannot get rid of every chicken in the country, they are not looking to pigs, ducks, ect. Their news of good news, is making me uneasy.

beehiver – at 11:30

I caught the end of the GSK ad on Discovery Health channel last night. Isn’t this the vaccine with the proprietary adjuvant…an oil-emulsion adjuvant, or closely related to the MF59 adjuvant that has caused so much concern as highlighted by anon_22 on a different thread? Has the proprietary GSK adjuvant been approved yet by the FDA for use in vaccines in the U.S.? If there is truly an oil emulsion adjuvant in this new vaccine they are already advertising, and it has not been approved yet…what’s going on? Is this an effort to build early public support, without the public knowing what’s in the vaccine, and can’t find out due to “proprietary” status?

For the record, I do not always take an anti-vaccine stance; but I am in favor of full testing, full disclosure, and informed consent. Sometimes the testing of biological products is not thorough; and the current level of knowledge about interactions in molecular biology is not as complete, or has not penetrated as thoroughly, as we would like to think. We are not God, yet…if ever…and there is need to behave in the professional world with great respect. Hopefully the public will demand full disclosure, and will be cautious about what they allow themselves to believe.

Goju – at 11:51

I don’t think they “have” the vax yet. The commercial was a bit misleading IMO

janetn – at 12:28

Beehive, Yes your correct its the same vaccine. I caught the same commercial, my DH saw it too. Even though the commercial does not say they have a vaccine my DH thought different. How many people are going to see that ad and think incorrectly that there is a vaccine available?

crfullmoon – at 12:47

CIDRAP: …”The nation currently lacks the capacity to make enough egg-based flu vaccine.”… “HHS officials predicted it would take 4 to 5 years to bring cell-based flu vaccines to the point of usability. “

HHS pdf Estimated U.S.-based vaccine production

Current capacity; 2 doses, 90 ug/dose for 1.7 Million = 0.6%of the population

2007 capacity (est); 2 doses, 90 ug/dose for 3.3 million = 1.1% of the population

Current capacity; 2 doses, 18 ug/dose for 8.3 million = 2.8% of the population

Page 23 Pre-Pandemic Vaccine, HHS strategy to stockpile pre-pandemic vaccine to protect 20 M persons for possible pandemic strains.

H5N1 stockpile for 5.7 M civilians and 1.8 M military personnel by 2/06 Production limited to period between annual campaigns

Page 33 Conclusions and Next Steps HHS doctrine and pandemic vaccine and antiviral drug supply goals will minimize need for targeting & priority groups

But a significant vaccine supply gap will remain for >5 years and antiviral drug gap for 2 years”

observer – at 15:06

This from Reuters today may explain ads, etc.

LONDON (Reuters) - GlaxoSmithKline Plc expects to sign more contracts to supply governments with its experimental bird flu vaccine for humans, following purchases by Switzerland and an unidentified Asian country.

“Between now and Christmas I expect we will sign a few more in Europe and elsewhere,” Chief Executive Jean-Pierre Garnier told analysts in a post-results conference call.

Europe’s biggest drugmaker announced earlier this month that the Swiss Federal Office of Public Health had ordered 8 million doses of its H5N1 vaccine to protect its entire population in the event of a influenza pandemic, which many experts fear may be triggered by bird flu.

The vaccine has not yet won regulatory approval but Glaxo plans to file it with the European Medicines Agency by the end of 2006.

Glaxo’s vaccine uses only a very low dose of active ingredient, which should help stretch scarce supplies.

A key challenge in the race to produce a vaccine for millions of people around the world — which governments are keen to stockpile — is how to make the maximum number of shots from the minimum amount of antigen, or active ingredient.

While Glaxo’s vaccine offers protection against the deadly H5N1 avian flu virus now circulating, its impact on any mutated strain of virus is not certain.

However, experts say it could “prime” a person’s immune system so they will get stronger effects from a later, better-matched vaccine.

http://tinyurl.com/t2xv2

Bronco Bill – at 21:09
Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.SKGBirdFluVaxCommercial
Page last modified on October 26, 2006, at 09:09 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Local TX Officials Not Concerned About Bird Deaths

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Local TX Officials Not Concerned About Bird Deaths

22 August 2006

Petticoat Junction – at 01:32

We found a dead bird in our yard today, no obvious marks by predators or anything; it looked like it had just fallen off the fence, dead when it hit the ground.

While I was trying to keep the dog away and figure out how to safely dispose of it, my husband called the local health officials to see if they wanted to test it. He couldn’t get ahold of the county health dept so called the city people.

Their response was that although they usually do test, the guy who does it was out of town until the end of the week. “And anyway, they continued, there have been a lot of birds dying all of the sudden lately so it was probably just another one of that bunch.” (?!?!) Since there had been so many they said hadn’t bothered to test them, just assumed it was the heat. (?!?!)

Yes, this is summer in Texas and it has been hot, but nothing has particularly changed in the last few weeks and they hadn’t had die-offs during last summer’s heat.

Needless to say, hubby was NOT happy when he got off the phone. And of course it got me to thinking about the theory that has floated by here on FluWiki (Joe Neubarth, I think?) about BF coming up silently through TX.

I’m calling the county dept first thing in the morning and see what they say.

Love Texas – at 09:22

What part of Texas do you live, I am in North Texas?

FL Watcher – at 09:26

Just another one of those things that can make you wonder where are the brains???? I get so confused when I read about how the WHO says there is NO sign of a cluster in Cicelet and then read another article that says from China, A very real possiblity of new cluster case. You would think the WHO is who we should believe!!!!

anonymous – at 10:16

I can kind of understand average citizens not paying attention, but the city health people? It is their freaking job to pay attention. And there is one freaking person who can run a test? Doesn’t bode well for emergecny preparedness.

Petticoat Junction – at 10:38

LT, I am in Central TX.

Dh called the county dept this morning and left a message. It was kind of funny, actually…he told the switchboard gal that he’d “found a dead bird in his…” and she had already switched him to the voicemail for the Environmental Health guy. So we’ll see what his response is.

I’m definitely telling him what the city people said and see if he says anything about die-offs.

Petticoat Junction – at 10:42

Wow, that was fast, they just called back.

To sum up…they aren’t testing any birds for anything because they’ve already had confirmation of West Nile in the county and are assuming that any deaths are now attributable to that or heat.

(And yes, they’ve had a lot of birds dying.)

I asked specifically about BF and made the comment, very pointedly, about low path being found in the States ~ she was completely unconcerned and basically blew me off.

This won’t make hubby happy either. ;)

History Lover – at 10:43

Petticoat Junction - I’m in West Texas so please keep us posted. Many thanks to you and your husband for being proactive and concerned.

Carrey in VA – at 10:50

They just assume its west nile or heat. Well thats nice.

Out of sight, out of mind. And what we don’t know, can’t hurt us.

Bluebonnet – at 10:52

PJ - see below. It is probably West Nile.

http://tinyurl.com/qpur7

The above is a link to the Texas Department of Health’s web site. It is a map of West Nile found in birds in the State of Texas. Note the positive sites in Central Texas.

Hope this helps.

Grimoire – at 10:55

heh, Just moved to Dallas too… Ah well

Petticoat Junction – at 10:58

Oh, I know we have it here. I caught it the first summer it was in TX…I wouldn’t wish that on anyone!

I think we were just frustrated with their assumption that since it’s here, nothing else is, especially given the low path positives. If the officials up there had decided, for whatever reason, not to test, nobody would know it was there either. I think this has all probably spread much further than anyone knows (or is willing to find out).

TXNurseat 12:14

TxNurse Petticoat Junction, I am also from central Tx, live out in the country & have not noticed any dead birds yet…but will keep my eyes open. Glad to see there are preppers in Tx. I have ONE other friend who is prepping and thats it. I have talked to TPTB at the hospital where I work till I’m blue in the face with no results for over a year now. They just think I’m crazy now and try to avoid me!

Bluebonnet – at 16:12

PJ - I hear your frustration! However, the fall bird migration in our part of the US has not started yet. Some birds are beginning the fall migration but most of the birds on that come over Texas will not start their migration until September. I think our main concern will be in October when the Canadian geese begin arriving.

I, too, am very concerned for us in the fall. I live near Houston and 2 major flyways converge right over us! However, I also know that my chances of catching avian flu from a wild bird are a LOT less than catching it from another human.

Keep prepping!

Poppy – at 16:52

PJ - I Drive just north of that general area for my job (follow the rail lines) and live down in Angelina County. We just moved here in June. I will keep my eyes open for anything unusual. I assumed West Nile was here because of the mosquitos so that is a concern unto itself. I have been watching for the migration to begin. Can’t say I’m not concerned, some of our neighbors let their chickens just run around everywhere.

TXNurseat 16:52

Bluebonnet, I lived in Houston (near Katy) when I was younger, and can clearly remember all the Canadian geese that would cover all the rice fields in and around Katy, it used to be beautiful,,,like snow covered fields. In the last 10 years or so there has been considerably less geese. Probably due to several factors, especially hunters. I have been worried about duck & geese hunters this year, the way they kill and dreesout those birds I believe that puts them in as much danger as in coutries such as Indonesia, China, etc. as far as their proximity to catch the virus, and leaves another door wide open for us here, sooner than later!

Bluebonnet – at 17:10

TXNurse

Yes, my brother is an AVID goose and duck hunter. We have had several LONG conversations about not hunting this fall. I think the message is finally sinking in.

One of the main reasons for fewer geese in the Katy area has to do with the enormous build-up of homes in that area and loss of habitat.

We always know when fall arrives here - I love to hear the geese honking late at night - such a beautful, wild sound.

I continue to feed birds in my backyard. My DH is a bit perturbed but I figure, what the heck! Maybe that little bit of extra food will help save some of them (and US)!

Petticoat Junction – at 17:16

Grimoire, welcome to TX, lol. You’re just in time. ;o)

TX Nurse ~ well, you know now that I am here! I have managed to get my parents prepping in CO and one friend here in TX; better than nothing, I guess. My friend here is a nurse, too, and was horrified when I sent her the bit I found out hospitals using JIT shipping (I think I posted it in the ‘Empty Shelves’ thread the night before last) ~ that was kind of the final straw that has really gotten her into this.

Poppy ~ yes, we definitely have West Nile here; I know you aren’t too far from me so unfortunately I’m sure it’s there, too. Trust me, you do NOT want to catch it.

Bluebonnet ~ I love Canadian geese. The town I’m from in CO has so many that they are on the city seal, on all the police cars, etc. We don’t get them too much here, but the thought of looking upon them with trepidation makes me sad.

TXNurseat 17:31

Bluebonnet - My husband was an avid duck hunter for years, he has a lease just down the road from us, (its one major disagreemnet we always have , as I hate hunting!) He did not lease this year, I think he has finally come around to believing me, and does not bother me about prepping anymore (infact he even suggests things I should get!) I know most of the habitat is gone from around where you live due to the subdivisions. The geese used to be one of my favorite things there in the fall.

PJ - glad to have you near me! I’m a ICU nurse, and there are several in my dept. prepping, my bosses kid me about being a trouble maker, but my hospital has absolutely done nothing in preparation. My own research with central supply shows we have less than a weeks worth of PPE’s if things get bad. I have explained over & over that there will be no nurses who come to work in that situation. I have worked for 16 years in ICU with all kinds of infectious diseases & I know there is not a darn thing we can do for H5N1, so I have told the hosp. that many nurses will cease to come to work if they do not care enough about us to properly prepare. Mostly I get blank looks or rolling eyes, from TPTB all way down to infection control!!

FloridaGirlat 17:52

Call your County Public Health Department. They should be working on a plan…. (per the Federal Government) That should incorporate the hospital, county & City Leaders, and a number of others…

They may be working on a plan… and they just haven’t released it yet.

Poppy – at 17:58

Believe me I am careful about mosquitoes. I am allergic (since childhood). I carry an EpiPen everywhere. So I also use insect repellant and take my B-100 to try and prevent bites. I can’t always avoid going out at dusk so just try to minimize my exposure. Several poeple in my home town in California have come down ill with West Nile this year so I think the danger is finally hitting home. I just wish we had as good a spray program here as they have where we are from in California.

I keep a basket by the back door filled with sunscreen, insect repellant, flashlights, and umbrellas. This way I encourage my family to use these things because they are handy and easy to find.

Bluebonnet – at 19:38

Hey ya’ll!

Back to the matter at hand. Have you read the State of Texas’ plan?

The FAQ is linked below:

http://tinyurl.com/j7xwp

One item of interest:

What are the biggest challenges that remain in preparing for a pandemic outbreak?

reaching all the state’s residents quickly.

  • Texas has four of the largest cities in the nation in terms of population and

also some of the most rural and sparsely populated areas in the country.

  • The number of square miles in Texas totals the same area as 14 of the

smallest U.S. states combined.

response scenarios depending on availability of vaccines and antivirals.

  • We may need to rely heavily on changing people’s behaviors to reduce

illness and death.

  • We may need to close schools and limit activities such as shopping or largegroup

activities.

  • Some businesses may need to shut down.

Hmmmm - sounds like it was written by a Fluwikian, doesn’t it?

Here’s the State’s Hospital Preparedness (seems to need some serious updating)

http://tinyurl.com/zad28

Harris County’s Plan is linked below (WOW!!! I’m impressed):

http://tinyurl.com/fojn2

So surely you can do a Google Search and find out what your county’s plan is/is not. Then you could go to your City (with County’s plan in hand) and say what is YOUR plan?

If your County doesn’t have a plan, why not go to the County seat (if not possible, write) and ask where it is. Show them Harris County’s plan or Bexar County or whatever.

If TPTB can’t answer, write to the State Department of Health and Human Services and find out why.

I have to admit that I am REALLY surprised by the information I found. Some really good and some in need of updating. Overal rating for Texas preparedness info, B+.

Keep prepping!

Bluebonnet – at 19:41

Sorry for the messed up lists! I’m kinda new at this wiki thing!

TXNurseat 20:17

Bluebonnet - yes I have read the only plan Tx has so far …a draft from 2004, I am involved in preparedness in several areas/counties here, what may look good on paper has very little value in execution. Most areas around here have no extra PPE’s/medical supplies/food/water or anything else that may prove useful in the event of a pandemic…and forget about antivirals! My own hospital did not even know they had a Pandemic Preparedness Plan. I found an old one from 2003, and it was news to our infection control nurse! I feel like I’ve just been beating my head against the wall.

TXNurseat 20:23

Sorry that may sound pretty negative, and really I’m not, I keep trying to inform as many people who will listen to me as I can, I hand out lists constantly, and give advice on good web sites, as with most comments I see on flu wikie, very few people seem concerned, even my own family, I have 3 sisters & one brother, I have been on them for 4 years now to have preps, and only one sister is actively prepping, you get alittle weary after awhile when people you really care about just keep their heads in the sand.But I still try.

Bluebonnet – at 20:38

I hear you TXNurse. I’ve presented hurricane and pandemic flu information at 2 neighborhood meetings. There were only about 30 people at each meeting but there are probably 500 homes in my subdivision.

NOT ONE person asked pertinent questions. One person even asked if FEMA would reimburse them for preps!!!!!

My brother is prepping but no one on my husband’s side of the family is even concerned. They were my Rita evacuees. WHY am I not surprised?

I, too, feel like you about beating my head against the wall. For 3 months now, I have pretty well kept my mouth shut. It gets really tiresome when people look at you “that” way, doesn’t it? But I keep thinking that if I help 1 family prepare, the “look” will be worth it.

I work in the Texas Medical Center and basically our pandemic plan is sort of glopped onto our SARS plan, which, by the way, wasn’t even IN place during the SARS epidemic. I will say that my institution has initiated a ban on travel to countries on the CDC list with avian flu. However, TPTB still have not answered any of my questions (submitted twice) regarding exactly what they are going to do. My main concern is about food and PPE’s. The administration seems to think they can handle this the same way they handle a hurricane. WRONG! But I am a lowly peon and not medical personnel - so what do I know about pandemic flu preparations?

Sigh - keep prepping!

centex – at 20:42

TxNurse - I am from your area also, email me when you get a chance!

23 August 2006

TXNurseat 00:37

Bluebonnet - I know the look well!! Even some of my closest friends get that glazed over look when I start in about prepping !

Hurricane Alley RN – at 09:56

bump

Poppy – at 18:48

The best thing to do for those of us even close enough to be affected or those of us who have family and friends who live in areas that could be affected is to promote prepping for hurricanes. If we can get them to at least do that much it might help. Adding masks and gloves should be a normal part of those preps since hurricane season and flu season overlap. Can you imagine a serious flu outbreak let alone a pandemic with a hurricane evacuation added in for good measure. Talk about the stuff of nightmares! Try putting that thought into the heads of those special to you. Maybe then they will think and start prepping. If they would evacuate due to a hurricane to where you live, you might offer to let them store some of their preps at your place. Maybe in a separate shed that could be locked.

EnoughAlreadyat 22:10

I am very disappointed in Texas’ plan. IMHO, it’s just paperwork and talk. I asked several key people (including folks out of Austin) at the first of the summer during our local Hurricane preparedness meeting about the plans for a pandemic. Basically, they just treated me like a --- well, like an airhead. When I started spitting out facts they began stammering. The bottomline, there’s nothing but what is on the state website. I have heard a meeting was suppose to take place in Austin late in the summer. I have heard nothing about what went on, if indeed something went on. I do know--- nobody I talk to is the least bit worried about the possibility of a pandemic hitting. And I live SE of Houston… one of those largest cities in the nation. That makes me keep running my mouth all the more.

24 August 2006

bumping for bill and monotreme – at 10:44
AD – at 11:28

I went to a lecture about BF back in June that was given by the Southwestern Medical Center. Someone from Dallas County Health Dept. was there and had some very sobering facts to give. He said that after checking with several of the larger food chains here he learned that we have a 48 hour supply of food for the entire county because of our JIT ordering. He also said that the amount of beds we had was extremely limited. I’ll have to try to find my notes and post again a little later.

kars1995 – at 13:41

Gee, I’ve been gone for awhile and when I come back on here it’s news about dead birds in Central Texas. I looked on that map for West Nile and the county I live in was positive. I haven’t heard about this on the news. (But then again, I haven’t been paying lots of attention to the news anyhow.) I took a walk around our ranch and didn’t see any dead birds - just lots of dead grass, flowers, bushes, etc. (Wishing it would rain someday.) Guess I better pay more attention to things around here.

Ruby – at 13:50

I’m in Texas also, mostly lurk here. Our university President presented the annual convocation yesterday. Along with informing us about how well we’re doing after huricane Rita, he said that the State is really putting “our feet to the fire” with regards to getting our online courses up and running. He stated that this was a top priority here and made a point to emphasize how urgently the state was wanting us to get this done now. He didn’t elaborate as to why, and there was no question and answer period after the convocation.

Let me add that we finally (7/12/06) received a university wide mailing with regards to the avian flu. It stated that “we are taking measures to educate health workers and first responders and insure that we have medical supplies and equipment readily available if the campus is impacted by the flu”. The mailing went on to add links to the WHO, CDC, and DHHS for answers to addional questions we might have.

I suspect that the push for online courses may be related to the possibility of flu pandemic, but it won’t do much good if the grid goes down.

Poppy – at 21:15

BUMP

TXNurseat 23:06

Ruby- What University are you talking about, I have 2 kids in college, and have heard nothing planned for either of their colleges.

25 August 2006

Petticoat Junction – at 02:16

Wow, that is encouraging about your univ, Ruby. I’m with TX Nurse, though…there hasn’t been anything circulated at the university where my husband teaches, either; at least not anything of which we are aware. It’s a concern of ours, for sure, both for the students’ sake and for dh’s.

Our local health dept seems to just be ‘surface’ stuff, too. They have a big link on pandemic prep right on their front page, but it goes to a list of links, mostly the .gov ones we’ve all seen, which keep referencing back and forth to each other. Better than nothing, but no real ‘meat’ to any of it.

They also sent out a postcard to all the local churches and nonprofits, telling all about a new community outreach program to try and get emergency services to a wider range of people by using volunteers within each group. I wrote to say I was interested but have had no reply and it’s been almost a month now.

I’d like to think it’s because they were inundated with people wanting to help, but judging from the bird response and the web info, I’m guessing it’s more a case of setting up programs that look good (and I do believe there are some who sincerely want them to work) but then not doing much beyond that.

Doesn’t give me a warm and fuzzy feeling, to say the least. :o/

Ruby – at 10:01

TXnurse, I work at Lamar University in Beaumont.

Bluebonnet – at 10:36

Poppy

Yup to the masks and gloves. My in-laws from Beaumont helped my husband build our new patio this summer. DH broke out the R95 masks (didn’t have any others available) while they were cutting bricks and that was an eye opener for them! DSIL has now stocked R95 masks as well. They had lots of questions about the mask, what it was for and why we had so many.

I was proud of DH - he answered every question and then referred them here. So sometimes folks do listen even when we think they aren’t.

I agree with all of you about Texas plan. It just seems to be referring everyone to all of these committees and County Health Departments. I live in Harris County and they are just now implementing ER controls for indigent patients due to the fact that the County hospitals are being overrun by folks with no insurance and Medicare/Medicaid patients with non-urgent health needs. Harris County is now triaging ER patients and those without urgent medical needs are being referred to County clinics for healthcare. Those that choose to remain must pay (what a novel concept) for services.

Sounds great, doesn’t it? But what happens when even a normal flu breaks out?

I read another site and found this. Thought it was interesting.

National Aviation Influenze Surveillance Information

Shows state-by-state how many birds have been tested for avian flu. See link below

http://tinyurl.com/n3ehz

Petticoat Junction – at 10:45

AD – at 11:28 “….Someone from Dallas County Health Dept. was there and had some very sobering facts to give. He said that after checking with several of the larger food chains here he learned that we have a 48 hour supply of food for the entire county because of our JIT ordering….”

Eek. Not surprising, given JIT, but still ~ the thought of a city the size of Dallas with only enough food for 48 hrs (and an official saying it publicly, to boot!) and the chaos that that one factor alone could cause. Seems like that should have shocked a few people into action. Did anyone seem to catch what he was saying??

(Bluebonnet ~ yay for dh!)

North of Houston – at 11:08

Regarding West Nile….Harris County was doing heavy aerial spraying over north Harris County last night due to West Nile. Our local city trucks were going up and down the streets spraying. There have been several cases of human cases in our area. We haven’t seen any dead birds in our yard; however, due to all the development and mowing down of natural habitats, we are having lots of “urban wildlife” in the form of racoons, possums, and roof rats. Lots of disease roaming the neighborhoods at night!

North of Houston – at 11:18

Tx Nurse: I have a daughter at SFA (graduates in December)….nothing about plans from them. They are getting a new president, so perhaps some changes will occurr. The previous president did notdismiss classes until the day before Rita hit after FEMA and emergency groups arrived in town to set up staging areas. I guess what I am saying is ….don’t hold your breath about your schools planning. Lamar (my alma mater) has its act together because of Rita (the forgotten storm) and lessons learned from that experience.

Eccles – at 11:21

Petticoat Junction - the level of supply available in the local food chain has been discussed before on the Wikie. Basically, business has now gone to the model where the semis on the interstate are the warehouse for your store. They unload from truck to shelf, and when the shelf is empty, the store is out.

Now, to educate yourself further, go to your favoriate supermarket. Pick any staple item you are familiar with. Say Powdered milk. Or canned tuna. Or Spam. or Rice.

Now look at how much is actually on the shelf. I can report that once I went to the market and saw a big sale gondola display for canned vegetables. I actually counted the cans. As I recall, there were about 250 cans. So how many families buying a dozen cans a piece does it take to empty the display?

Petticoat Junction – at 11:26

Eccles, oh believe me, I am well versed in JIT! Explaining the reality of it (and giving them the same exercise) has been the one thing that has convinced several friends and family to start prepping. Realizing this week that hospitals do JIT on major meds was a bit of a shock to me, though, I will admit.

I was just surprised that a public official had actually come out and made such a blunt point about the reality of it, instead of sugar-coating it. Leave it to a Texan, though, lol. I hope, hope, hope that others heard what he was saying and understood the implications for any town, but especially one the size of Dallas.

Petticoat Junction – at 11:31

N. of Houston ~ the univ where my husband teaches has 14,000 students and no apparent planning on their part, either. Looks like they could all learn a few things from Lamar!

North of Houston – at 12:34

Petticoat….I guess what frustrates me about the lack of planning at my daughter’s school is that one of their heavy major fields of study is POULTRY!!!! Need I say more.

27 August 2006

Poppy – at 10:41

Off subject here but since there are so many Texas people on this thread. I have been looking around for those 50 gal±plastic water barrels. I may have found a decent source for them at a very reasonable price, and also for the 5 gallon buckets used for staples food storage. I hope to know more on the water barrels soon. The guy I talked to only had ones that used to have chemicals in them but said he gets some that had juice in them sometimes. I’m sure once those are cleaned they would be very suitable for water storage.

TXNurseat 10:53

Poppy- Do not use the ones that had chemicals in them for drinking water..even after cleaned, chemicals can leach into the plastic. Many feed stores/farm supply stores have 50 or 55 gal. food grade used containers ( usually had something like coke/dr. pepper syrup in them) they usually sell for about $15 - 17 dollars. The feed stores also carry metal burn barrels for about $15.00. You need one of these two to be able to get rid of your trash.

Grace RN – at 11:22

Poppy – at 17:58

Re the skeeters-on a seperate thread someone mention placing a dryer sheet 1/2 in a pocket when outside and how effective that was at keeping them away…just a thought..

History Lover – at 12:04

I think I’m the only West Texan on this website, but it would be great if we could have a thread for Texans to keep up with what is happening in other parts of the state. Like most Texans, I have relatives all over the state, including Dallas, Temple, and Austin. I’m constantly sending them news stories from this website to keep them updated.

TXNurseat 12:39

History Lover - sounds great…you name it

History Lover – at 15:16

How about Lone Star State? Anyone else have a suggestion?

centex – at 17:03

Lets go for it!

26 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 21:04

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Page last modified on October 26, 2006, at 09:04 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Archiving Old Threads

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Archiving Old Threads

26 August 2006

DemFromCTat 19:33

Many of you have noticed slowing down of the Forum. this is due to the many threads generated by interest. Closing threads helps, but only removing them from the server (“archiving them” elsewhere) will speed things up again.

Archived threads are not gone, but only pogge will be able to retrieve them.

We will start at the end of the Full Topic Listing to archive the oldest threads first. Newer threads will not be touched. Nor will we remove threads in the Forum Index, except perhaps for old news threads.

If there are old threads you really want preserved, let us know here and we won’t archive them. The threads that will go, remember, are so old they are only on the Full Topic listing and haven’t been added to for weeks.

DemFromCTat 19:38

By the way, this is a great opportunity to thank Deputy Bronco Bill for the blitzes and closing sessions.

We also have longer range plans to change the Forum to a venue that won’t require so much maintenance and add functionality. To do that we’d need money. To get that money from you to us:

You can send a check to Box 195, 1096 W. Broad Street, Falls Church, Virginia 22046

There are known legal problems with PayPal. For the time being, make the check out to Flu Wiki. We are a nonprofit.

DennisCat 19:42

What if some of us where to post copies of the old threads on our personal sites. That way people could then “look them up” if needed. I don’t have a lot of storage but I could store some text level items. - Just a thought.

DemFromCTat 21:01

bump

Monotreme – at 21:05

DennisC – at 19:42

What if some of us where to post copies of the old threads on our personal sites. That way people could then “look them up” if needed.

I like your idea. Another possibility would be to create a text file that could gotten via ftp. I think there is still alot of good information in the old threads that hasn’t been mined yet.

Mods, what do you think?

DennisCat 21:18

I will check and see how much room I have. My IP gives me some storage and can host some pages. Perhaps if a few of us took specific areas, perhaps even make a summary of an area as well- I would volunteer for copies of all the Utility/ hardware type items - water, power, gas, phone,… etc. I would think that there are a lot of “us” wikians that could make serve as backup “archives”. That way you can archive them but people could still get copies as needed.

27 August 2006

DemFromCTat 15:36

I’ll check with pogge. We hav an ftp, don’t forget, courtesy of the Dude.

26 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 21:04

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Diagnosis of Improved Condition in Patients

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Diagnosis of Improved Condition in Patients

25 August 2006

Janet – at 14:50

Interesting that all of us are noticing a number of “patient recovering or improving” over the last 10 days. We rarely saw this before.

I don’t think it is due to receiving quicker or more effective treatment. We are talking about very remote villages here and if they are informed on how to prevent the Avian Flu, I doubt they have adequate knowledge on how to get immediate help and antivirals.

Does anyone think something else is going on? More transmissions with less death. I am not sure whether this is good news or bad news!

26 August 2006

Cygnet – at 01:51

Are these confirmed cases?

I’m beginning to wonder what people have who are testing negative for H5N1 in the area. Seasonal flu? Pertussis? Measles? They could be having an outbreak of something else really nasty that causes pneumonia and fever, on top of h5n1 cases. If they don’t have H5N1 and they’re recovering, what DO they have?

Leo7 – at 02:54
Leo7 – at 02:54
Leo7 – at 02:54

26 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 21:00

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Its Been 2 Weeks-Where Are the Results

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Its Been 2 Weeks-Where Are the Results

24 August 2006

TreasureIslandGalat 13:53

Where are the final results of the testing of the 2 dead swans from Michigan? Have they released the findings yet? With everyone’s focus on Indo (including mine), I wanted to be sure this didn’t leak out without being caught by us. Does anyone here have an “inside track” to getting the info?

Dennis in Colorado – at 14:19

http://www.upi.com/ConsumerHealthDaily/view.php?StoryID=20060815-124321-6693r?
OXFORD, England, Aug. 15 (UPI) — Two swans found in Michigan have been confirmed to have a form of H5N1 avian influenza that does not pose a risk in humans.

The mute swans, both wild birds, were found on the shores of Lake Erie, at Pointe Mouillee State Game Area.

Although the virus found in the birds is of the same subtype — H5N1 — as the flu currently affecting much of Southeast Asia, it is actually a North American strain found in a Canadian duck last year, and first identified in the United States 20 years ago.

The difference between the two strains lies in their pathogenicity — the Asian variant, which is the one making headlines around the world, is highly pathogenic, leading to significant outbreaks among poultry and the occasional ability to infect humans.

This North American variant, however, is a low-pathogen strain, which means that it causes infrequent illness in birds and none in humans.

cabingirl – at 14:27

“This North American variant, however, is a low-pathogen strain, which means that it causes infrequent illness in birds and none in humans”.

Tell that to the DEAD ducks and swans.

anonymous – at 16:04

I was wondering the same thing. The above article is dated Aug. 15, the date we were first told about H5N1 in Michigan. Here’s the official fact sheet for AF testing:

http://tinyurl.com/fo55z

tjclaw1 – at 16:04

oops, that was me

anonymous – at 16:45

I might be mistaken, but weren’t the swans killed as part of a planned population control measure? So, the swans weren’t killed by the LPAI H5N1, they were just found to have the flu in their systems

enza – at 16:59
 Have we heard many results? I can think of a list of other ‘results’ we have never heard about. The sheeple have short attention spans.
DemFromCTat 19:51

see

Avian Flu Detection Information on Wild Birds Available

The public can now view a Web site showing current information about wild bird sampling for early detection of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in the United States: http://wildlifedisease.nbii.gov/ai/.

Scientists are now using the newly developed database and Web application called HEDDS (HPAI Early Detection Data System) to share information on sample collection sites, bird species sampled, and test results.

The database is available to agencies, organizations, and policymakers involved in avian influenza monitoring and response. Scientists will use the data to assess risk and refine monitoring strategies should HPAI be detected in the United States. Public access is more limited, but shows the states where samples have been collected and includes numbers of samples collected from each state.

25 August 2006

Z – at 01:29

There are no test results available. Just that there was no “high path” H5N1 found.

TreasureIslandGalat 10:16

They said they would announce the results publicly. The sequences should also be available by now. So where are they?

Dennis in Colorado – at 10:38

TreasureIslandGal, it was the USDA’s Dr. Ron DeHaven (administrator of the U.S. Department of Agriculture Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service) who stated on 8/14 that, “Final confirmation of its pathogenicity will be made and reported when that testing is completed.”

The USDA press office can be reached at (202)720–4623. Perhaps they can provide an update.

tjclaw1 – at 15:09

Bump. Has anybody heard anything?

26 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:58

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Too Many Katrina Refugees At My House

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Too Many Katrina Refugees At My House

24 August 2006

ssol – at 09:51

I have mentioned this first-person testimonial in previous posts. This guy invited a few friends from New Orleans to stay at his house and ended up swamped. He has written a very thoughtful essay on what went wrong, what to do and especially what we ought to do if we have to bug out from our towns for any reason.

http://tinyurl.com/hx7cf

Dennis in Colorado – at 10:19

I thought the greatest “take-away” from Fr. Frog’s commentary was his epilogue:

You won’t have problems if you are prepared for them. (Unless a government employee shows up to “help.”)

FrenchieGirlat 10:22

That was an eye opener. I think it would go nicely somewhere on the main Wiki. If others find this a good idea, would you ask your friend if he would allow this?

ssol – at 10:30

Dennis in Colorado: I agree.

FrenchieGirl – at 10:22. Yes, if people want I will check. When I first read this it was a dry mouth, sobering experience. His experience dispells many ideas about what may happen on the fringe of a big city when TSHTF.

LEG – at 11:15

I have had several people tell me that we are a civilized country and when TSHIF people will help each other, and then it will eventually return to life as we knew it BEFORE. This article is a very important help in perspective - humankind is self oriented for survival. We must not underestimate the potential threats as we try to help others.

Green Mom – at 11:55

Ive printed this essay and put it in my BIG RED DISASTER notebook. I’m afraid what he says rings all too true with my experience with other types of disasters. Fortunantly, I havn’t experienced one as bad as Katrina, but I have been through several icestorm/tornados. Ive also had friends in personal disaster situations come stay with me- and stay and stay and eat and eat and then it was “SO long and thanks for all the fish!” no reimbursment no nothing and it leaves a really sour feeling. But then on the other hand, we’ve (Dh and I) have “rescued” people who months later came back and said “Hey man thanks so much you really helped me out of a tight jam, let me write you a check or buy you some groceries or something” You just never know.

However-now that I have children, I put them first and am not as apt to rescue wayward friends. If someone needs to crash on a couch for a few days, ok fine, but if its going to take food away from my kids, or put them in danger, or seriously disrupt their lives, no way.

Ive also seen healthy adult males walk away from children who needed help and frail old people standing in the rain trying to help total stangers. Its just crazy.

Bluebonnet – at 16:40

As I have written before, I had 17 Rita evacuees at my house for a month. I did not have the problems this person writes about and that could be because they were family and not just friends. They all pitched in to clean, prepare food, and buy groceries. No one brought any “extras” to the house - just family.

I would caution everyone here about being on the road and having folks try to take supplies by force. This happened to my relatives TWICE on the evacuation route. This was due to the fact that they all drive SUVs and their preps were visible through the windows. A couple of small handguns took care of this situation. Yes, Texans are armed!!!!

It took them 22 hours to go about 120 miles. No gas, no toilets, no water, no food. This is the reason others could see their preps - they were creeping along at about 5 mph. This was when they were moving - most of the time they were stopped dead in traffic.

Not to mention DPS officers who kindly diverted everyone into a field to ride out a hurricane! Fortunately, a kind woman arrived with 10 gallons of gas and they were able to move on.

I also agree that, should you choose to bug out, you need to really think about what you take with you and keep this to a minimum. Relatives said over and over “why did I bring THAT?” What seems to be essential in panic mode is not always what is really necessary for survival - i.e., jewelry, motorbikes, etc. - rather than food and water.

All in all, I think this is a good observation and folks need to really think about taking someone into their home during a disaster situation. Fortunately for all of us, it worked and it worked well. In fact, our family is closer now than we have been for the last 30 years.

Texas Rose – at 18:49

“I would caution everyone here about being on the road and having folks try to take supplies by force. This happened to my relatives TWICE on the evacuation route. This was due to the fact that they all drive SUVs and their preps were visible through the windows. A couple of small handguns took care of this situation. Yes, Texans are armed!!!!”

The husband and I have observed that in that sort of situation, whoever is riding shotgun really needs to be riding shotgun.

Thanks for posting that account. Very sobering.

What bothered me the most was the attitudes of the governmental types, that anyone who was prepared must have been looting. I would have thought the government types would be thrilled that someone was prepared and didn’t need assistance.

ssol – at 19:07

Texas Rose; Yes, I agree that the government employee response is the most disturbing. I do not think you can chalk it up to ‘the stress, being away from their families, the long hours’, and it wasn’t just one or two. It seemed to be all over. That is an indication of very poor training and supervision.

Why the attitude that everyone is a dirt bag except them?

Any LEOs out there?

A former Lurker – at 21:00

Thank you ssol, it was moving to say the very least. A real eye opener for those of us that just watched on the news. So much goes on behind the scenes that we never hear about. This needs a place on the main Wiki, it’s one of those things that Will make a difference, could save a few lives too, Mods????

Jefiner – at 21:57

I have emailed this to all my skeptical friends so they know why I prep. I have been getting a lot of heat about it lately. Good insights!

25 August 2006

mamypoko – at 00:09

Thanks ssol at 09:51 for posting it. Loved the read. It’s certainly good learning/awareness for a “possible” future application which i hope i’ll never have to deal with.

Petticoat Junction – at 02:35

Sobering is right. Downright scary. Makes some of the preps I consider my ‘paranoid preps’ (lol) seem rational, even perhaps a bit tame.

And yet it fits perfectly with what I saw here the day before Rita hit (and we are quite a few hours inland). I would especially agree with his point #4 (“In a real emergency, forget about last-minute purchases”).

I found out that friends were heading up with approx 25–30 parishoners in tow (he’s a pastor and they were evacuating the elderly w/no relatives, etc) so I thought I’d make one quick run to the store for a few things. It was like nothing I’ve ever seen experienced…or want to again. Pkgs of unneeded things strewn on the floor, people fighting over the last bottle of Gatorade and store-brand Spam, furtively darting through the parking lot and not even taking their carts to the corral lest someone steal their hard-won grocery stash. And that was before it got really bad.

Thanks to Rita, I went from semi-serious prepper to very, very serious prepper.

Though I think this article may have bumped me up another half notch. ;o)

Bluebonnet – at 09:55

PJ - Me, too! It was INSANE here in Houston prior to Rita. I actually witnessed two women get into a physical altercation over bottled water at Sam’s.

Never, never, ever again will I go to any big box, grocery store, etc. prior to a disaster - natural or not.

I can just imagine what it would be like with a pandemic flu. Fear is an incredible emotion we humans express rather well, in my opinion.

Almost a year later, most of the folks (including family) I know that evacuated for Rita have sworn “never again.” There was complete, utter, lawlesness on the roads. Most of the small towns in East Texas blocked access to their towns so folks were unable to get precious gasoline and food and water. Other towns had folks lining the roads with water, snacks and limited gasoline. It was utter, complete chaos. Families with children who ran out of gas simply sat on the side of the road thinking they would have to ride out a Cat 3 storm in their CARS! I cannot even imagine the horror of that.

After Rita, the grocery stores here were able to open on Saturday afternoon. Some limited the amount of folks in the stores - others allowed everyone in. We were lucky that the lights went off in our small town for only 4 hours. However, the stocks were very low for about a week after the storm. So don’t plan on restocking then either.

Make sure you have enough preps to ride out a disaster AND the aftermath.

Keep prepping!

Petticoat Junction – at 11:05

Bluebonnet,

Exactly! Just stepping inside the store made me soooo glad that I had food and supplies at home so that I didn’t have to get sucked into the panic mode (at that point I had several weeks’ worth, now 3+ months’ and trying to get to 6 mo asap!). It was very freeing and yet made me very, very sad watching others scrambling for a few small cans of some leftover something. (And it was about a month before all of our stores were fully back up to capacity, too. Once the first few shipments did start coming in, people were hoarding just as much as they could; kind of a post-traumatic reaction. So it took even longer to restock.)

I saw price-gouging at one small grocery store, too…a line of people were dashing in and out of a normally sleepy little business so out of curiosity I stopped. They had gotten a shipment of bottled water (12pk indivs) and at that point, it was the only water left in town. HEB, WalMart, Sam’s, etc were all out. Again, people were quarreling and hugging their water, daring anyone to look sideways at them….and paying 2–3x the normal price without blinking. I decided ~ again ~ that I was very happy to have my 50–60 gallons at home and stepped back out of the fray.

That day really changed the way I see people, unfortunately. I did see examples of positive action (and boy, you should have seen the look on one gal’s face when I gave her the few cans of tuna and beans that I had added to my cart!) but by in large, once that panic mode took over, it was sheer, survival-of-the-fittest, every-person-for-themselves blind grabbing of anything in sight. :o(

BTW, I don’t know how it was for anyone else (and it makes me think of that thread on what sells out first in a panic) but the absolute highest value commodities here, the ones that sold out way before the others, were: water, batteries, any kind of canned protein, TP, and bread. Not coincidentally, those have been among my top prep items since that day…I figure I can sail down the baking aisle and pick up corn syrup and olive oil while everyone else is fighting over the Spam. ;o)

ssol – at 11:14

Bluebonnet – at 09:55 Thanks for the Rita info. I had not considered towns actually barricading off ramps from Interstates. That’s going to take some thinking. My wife and I do not have a bugout plan. We live in NE Pa. and are not exposed to hurricanes or any natural reason to leave. Our semi-rural home is the bugout location for several other families in town though.

I have hoped that if panflu hits hard, that the bridges to NJ would be closed to limit the exodus from NYC. Perhaps the state would do that as a quarantine measure.

We have not endured a storm like Rita. We do get torrential rains and very bad flooding from East coast hurricanes because Pa. is so hilly - the runoff creates very bad flooding. Our worst experience has been 9 days without power in February 2004 due to an ice storm. Coal and wood stoves, propane ovens and a well kept most discomfort at bay.

Your comments about not being able to restock is something that I need to think more carefully about. We have a good pantry and 300 gallons of water, but I may need to think about buying a farm tank for gasoline if the region was knocked on it’s knees for a length of time.

What most disturbs my wife and I in the link is the lawlessness. We have 3 other families within 3 miles that are like-minded and all of the adults agree that if TSHTF, a group home would be necessary to provide round-the-clock watches. But I have my doubts about some of the women - I cannot see two of them willingly leaving their homes to come to mine. They are very wrapped up with their homes. The men have all agreed that mine is the most defensible because I can see 100 to 300 yards in either direction, everyone else is in heavily wooded areas. So, it may be difficult to put together a watch until there are lawless bands in the immediate area. We do not know all our immediate neighbors and several of them are not good neighbors in the best of times.

But the reality this man wrote about highlights the moral decay in our cities and elsewhere. It is clear that the lawlessness was not confined to inner-city New Orleans but also occurred throughout rural Mississippi. I doubt this would have happened 50 years ago. The ‘entitlement’ mentality is a clear risk to all of us.

2beans – at 11:57

Weather forecast as of this a.m. is that tropical dep. will enter the gulf by next week. I’m going to check the walmart on Monday out of curiosity but I’m already certain of what I’ll find. There will be no batteries, lanterns or battery-operated light sources of any kind other than maybe a few Korean-made, beason-type flashlights. They will be sold out of bottle water and beer.

Bluebonnet – at 12:12

PJ - My first preps were always protein, toilet paper and water. Anything I added after that I considered a luxury.

SSOL - yes, I was aghast to hear the tales told by family. There were several news reports that whole towns were refusing to help evacuees due to the Katrina nightmare. The Governor of my state has now mandated a 72 hour evacuation rather than the 36 hour rule for Rita. Hopefully, this will alleviate some of the pressures on fuel.

I am focusing my preps now on the restock issues. My primary concern is not with food or water but with OTC meds, prescription meds, etc. My husband and I are blessed in that we can order 3 months of prescription meds at a time. This is my most crucial prep at this point as my husband is a diabetic and cannot live without his meds.

I am also stocking a few cans of gasoline just in case. I think your plan for group defense is an excellent one. Hopefully if/when the time comes, those women will be too scared to resist moving in with one another.

My husband and I were the only ones left on our street during the Rita evacuation. Being alone with all the vacant houses was a VERY scary situation. One of our neighbors returned home after spending 12 hours and only going 2 miles on the freeway. I am currently talking to neighbors on the street about this evacuation issue. More than half have told me they will NOT evacuate no matter what. I stick in bird flu every once in a while, too!

Yes, the entitlement mentality in this country is amazing to me as well. 1800 Katrina folks here in Houston had their electricity cut off this week per local media. “We didn’t know we had to start paying for electricity.” GAHHH!!!!!!

Keep prepping!

North of Houston – at 14:48

I agree with 2beans…only I’m hopefully making the Walmart/Sam’s run this weekend. We have a business membership to Sam’s, so I’ll go early. Haven’t seen the new tracking on the depression. There was supposed to be an update today with course and percentages for landfall. DH already talking about where to evacuate to if we have to leave.

SPAM ALERT – at 14:59

Don’t want to drift too far from flu-related topics, but see
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/145324.shtml?5day
for 5-day track for TD5 (soon to become TS Ernesto?). No landfall prediction yet, but headed for the middle of the Gulf of Mexico.

One of my responsibilities here at work is to track storms, since they can impact our ability to complete our orders for telecom circuits, so I’m on the mailing list from the National Hurricane Center and have bookmarks to all of the major weather-related sites…

Dennis in Colorado – at 15:01

…and,if you don’t change your Author name, you show as “Spam Alert”… <sigh>

26 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:57

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Battery Power

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Battery Power

24 August 2006

Sacmer – at 19:20

Ok, I know if I read every post of Alternate power for dummies archives I might gleen some info but I am lazy. I am thinking of small amount of battery backup for running computer, task lighting, small electrical appliance for short time. I am somewhat handy with home repairs but not a whiz and definately hate the math when it comes to watts/volts/amps etc.

Would something like this be useful or is it overpriced:http://www.mrsolar.com/page/MSOS/CTGY/portable

60 amp hour battery/3000 watt inverter/80 watt solar module

How much run time does this battery give you for DC appliances and how much if you used the inverter for all AC usage? How long would it take to charge with the 80 watt solar panel? Any educated comments appreciated.

lazy – at 19:24
anonymous – at 20:07

I should have also said I somewhat dread obtaining all above individual components and assembling them into an effective portable system without electrocuting myself.

pfwag – at 20:57

There are better solutions. The devil is in the details.

The key thing in sizing is watt hours. You have to put 10–15% more into the battery than you take out. Your solar panel will only provide its rated output when perpindicular to the sun. Clouds reduce the output even more. I haven’t done the math, but would guess that unless you are going to have your solar panel track the sun, the 80W module in the unit you referenced probably can’t generate more than about 300–400 Whrs on a cloudless day. That, however, is enough to run a few things for a few hours each day if you are judicous in your power use. That is also about the maximum you want to discharge the battery, assuming you are using a deep discharge storage battery.

25 August 2006

Sacmer – at 11:16

bump

Eccles – at 11:27

Sacmer - We can’t tell you run time without you tell us what you are running and what its power requirements are.

Note also that the inverter is a 1500 watt inverter with the ability to support a 3000 watt surge momentarily.

Just so you can get a feel for what the numbers mean for this setup. If you were to completely drain your ^) Ah battery (not something I would recommend doing), and if you were using the inverter at the 1500 watt level, your battery would be gone in 20–25 minutes.

Using the 80 watt panel, it would take you 2 sunny days to completely recharge that battery again.

Sacmer – at 11:45

Sorry, I forgot only 1500 watt inverter. Well, in the DC mode I was thinking of a DC fan and perhaps small (LED0 lighting as in a motor home. Obviously don’t have the product yet but just trying to get some ball park ideas. AC wise a laptop computer, perhaps something like 700 watt rice cooker for 30 min if the propane runs out.

Hillbilly Bill – at 12:02

Sacmer – at 11:45

My advice about the rice cooker, buy more propane.

Eccles – at 12:03

Sacmer - That 700 watt rice cooker would probably use just about the full day’s harvest of electricity on a good day. So it is doable.

But for cooking, there are better uses of the sun than to collect it, convert about 10% to power and throw the rest away, feed it to a battery which will lose about 15% of the power you feed it, then feed the power from the battery back out to an inverter which will lose about 10% of the power you feed it, send the rest to an electric rice cooker which will lose about 10% of the power you send to it.

You would probably do well to look into solar cookers if you want to use solar energy as a backup cooking method. Also, you would use less of your energy if you used thermos cooking to prepare your rice.

Hillbilly Bill – at 12:25

I’ll just post my experience in the ever-challenging world of alternative energy to give a benchmark.

One of the appliances I want to run if the grid is down is my breadmaker. I know there are lots of different ways I could bake bread, but I decided I want to do it this way for as long as possible.

I have a battery bank of three 115Ah batteries and a 1500W inverter. If I start with my battery bank topped up I can bake a loaf of bread with no problems. However, at the end of the 3 hour cycle my bank is at 60% and I need more than a full day to get it filled back up with the 60W of panels I have now.

Keep in mind that for 2 1/2 of the 3 hour cycle, the breadmaker does not use very much power. When it is cooking in the last 30 minutes, the heating element will draw about 500W for a few seconds and then click off. This happens every minute or so, depending on the ambient temperature. It is really shocking to watch the voltage and amperage guages on the inverter when that element is powered!

Originally I thought that I would be able to bake a loaf of bread, use the computer for a few hours a day, and watch a DVD at night on TV. To do that I will need more batteries and more panels. I have already spent plenty so I am scaling back my “wants” to fit the reality of the situation.

H. G. Wells – at 12:48

Some what off topic. Good deal on Duracell batteries at Walgreens (NOT RECHARGEABLE)

Duracell 16-pack AA or AAA, 8-pack C or D, On sale for $ 7.99

Then the walgreen rebates. Buy $20.00 of duracell and get a $10.00 Walgreens gift card. Also there is a $3.00 per pack rebate at Walgreens.

3 packs = $23.97 - $19 = $4.97 for 3 packs (+ TAX on $24)

So for $5 you can get 24 D size batteries.

These offerers are in the booklet near the checkout stand.

YES I normally use NIMH batteries.

26 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:57

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Pandemic Economics

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Pandemic Economics

25 August 2006

Klatu – at 09:08

The following is an excellent oview despite the date is still relevant, I found some interesting observations. The PDF file is easy on the eyes with good use of graphics to break down the numbers. If this has been posted previously, please delete.

OCTOBE R 1 1 , 2 0 0 5

An economists view of Pandemic Flu..

Sherry Cooper is a Canadian economist

(excerpts)

“The Philippine government, for instance, has no Tamiflu stockpile….”

“So where will the cancer testing, biopsies and chemotherapies and radiation occur? What about heart surgery, maternity wards, prenatal care, and infant ICUs? What about visitations and hospices for terminally ill patients? The medical questions are endless—we got a taste of this during the 2003 SARS outbreak in Toronto.

“The full effect of pandemic on inflation (for goods and services in short supply) and deflation (as demand for some goods and services plunge), and commensurate movements in interest rates, gold prices, currencies and stock prices would depend on the length and severity of the pandemic.

“…only two American companies produce health-care particulate respirator and surgical face masks. 3M is one of them, but it does not produce masks in the U.S. and it uses Chinese rayon in their production. Face masks would fl y off the shelves and restocking would be impossible.

Black markets in face masks (as an example) would develop and crime would become a serious problem. The military and National Guard, as well as police and fi re fi ghters, would be needed to maintain the peace, and yet their ranks will be depleted by illness.

Just as residents of New Orleans had lived through lesser hurricanes, and therefore ignored or denied the risk of a monster hurricane, many react similarly to the threat of a flu pandemic.”

http://tinyurl.com/nzm98

26 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:56

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Maps Compass GPS

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Maps Compass GPS

24 August 2006

anonymous – at 19:02

Maps, Compass, GPS, protractor and navigation gear should be part of your preps, especially if you are “bugging out”.

As others have posted, freeways can slow to a crawl and even stop all together. In addition, once “stopped” you are thrown together with all sorts of people - some of which you may not like the look of.

For these reasons, unless I had been reading fluwiki and knew I was hours ahead of the rest of the population, I would never, ever, get on the freeway with the rest of the herd. I have always planned to take the back roads and avoid “choke points” wherever possible.

If you want to do this, you should have detailed maps that extend way past your expected destination, because you never know what detours you may have to make, and you don’t want your memory letting you down. You should also make sure that you can navigate properly with and without a GPS.

You should also plan your route well in advance, including alternates, and make sure you have as many options as possible. In my case I live on a coastal plain and the choke points are the major roads leading over a dividing range to get inland. There is a huge network of minor roads, firebreak roads and logging tracks that will get you across the mountains - if you know where they are, and most of them aren’t signposted properly either.

If you drive an SUV with four wheel drive, you might also like to test its four wheel drive abilities and learn how to use them. I’ve lost count of the number of people I’ve had to help in snow who had highly capable vehicles, but had no idea how to drive in slippery conditions. Three times I’ve even had to show drivers how to engage four wheel drive and what a “locking diff” button was for.

DennisCat 19:26

So you expect the satillite systems to be OK? My guess is that is correct for most cases. But the main thing is to have a prepared place to go to and leaving early.

no name – at 19:38

I have heard of a trucker’s map that is very detailed. It would show the small roads you described. Do ya’ll know what I am talking about? Sorry I don’t know much more than that.

GPS if you use that can’t they find you?

Thanks

Desert Dan – at 19:50

Hey no name maybe “THEY” can track you by the magnetic strip on your drivers license.

“THEY” could also track your cell phone signals

But why?

I think armed military roadblocks on key intersections and natural boundaries like mountains, rivers, lakes would be likely.

Time to get out my aluminum foil and make a hat :)

Kim – at 22:29

no name, the maps (actually a book of maps) you’re looking for are gazetteers, there’s one available for each state, cost about $15–20 each. Walmart usually has them, if not check truck stops and larger RV dealers. They’re pretty good about showing back roads. If you live anywhere where the land isn’t nearly flat, you should also be able to read a topo map… what looks like a shortcut can turn into a 1,000 foot cliff if you can’t read a topo.

DennisCat 22:54

the topo maps from the US geological survey are very good if you think your are really going “off road” or down small dirt roads.

http://tinyurl.com/r5qmr

They will show up roads and things that most others do not. However, still say- first have a prepared place to go to and leave before the rush.

Jefiner – at 22:57

I have a handy little GPS thingy from Garmin called a “Nuvi”. It is preloaded with a base map (I update it every couple months) which you can add to, and a lovely voice comes out of it to navigate you as well. Pretty intuitive and user friendly—I bought it at Sam’s, and no, they aren’t cheap, but cheeper at Sam’s then at other retailers.

25 August 2006

Eccles – at 00:34

No Name - if you use your GPS can’t they find you?

Well perhaps using reconnaisance helicopters, night vision goggles, thermal infrared systems or stool-pigeons, yes.

But not with you basic handheld or vehicle mounted GPS unit. it is a passive receiver. It does not send out a signal to the satellites. NCIS and Tom Harmon(Gibbs) seem to somehow get a “lock” on every bad guys GPS unit every week. That is just bad Hollywood ignoramus writing.

A GPS unit is a sophisticated receiver that uses the signals transmitted to earth by a system of satellites to calculate exactly where you are. No tracking of individual units occurs.

Bronco Bill – at 01:45

But be sure to get rid of the DVD movies your kids are watching in the back seat. There are chips embedded in every DVD that allow Walt Disney to track your every move… ;-)

BB can’t afford aluminum foil, so he spray paints his forehead silver

Anon-today – at 02:52

The Gazateer brand name to look for is Delorme.

The USGS 7.5 minute topo maps are a bit too large scale for driving, you end up on the edge of the map befoe you know it, and unless you are really adept at reading them, it is hard for a lot of people to reconcile their scale with the scale that they used to for road maps. If you can find any of the old 15 minute topo maps they are better for driving, but the Delormes are really the best scale.

Unless there is a major solar flare, the GPS satellites should not have problems.

There are usually two to three times more roads actually on the ground than there are on even the USGS topo maps. Off road recreation has really taken off more since the maps were compiled. If you try to navigate on those topos by saying “okay, turn left at the next dirt road”, you may be turning at the wrong place. You need to pay attention more to distances and topography when reading those maps than by counting roads. (maybe not on the East coast and Midwest where there is more private property, but you do in the West where a lot is national forest and BLM land)

Practically, where GoogleEarth has acquired new high resoution images this year you would be able to reconcile the new roads with your paper maps and draw in the new roads. Delorme will send you free map pages if you send them updates.

GPS in only as good as the batteries in it (unless you get a car power connector), and in canyons the signal is likely to be blocked.

You can get Topo! (National Geographic) CD’s for your laptop, and plug the GPS into your laptop if you get the right system, and plot your location in real time.

With all of this^^^^ you should be able to plan some really good vacations away from it all.

26 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:56

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / WHO Defines Sequence Release Protocol

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: WHO Defines Sequence Release Protocol

24 August 2006

Nightowl – at 05:05

Thank you, gharris, for originally posting this information on the Aug23 news thread at 17:13.

WHO procedures for obtaining release of H5N1 sequences to the public domain

23 August 2006

…”Currently, the genetic sequencing of H5N1 viruses is a product of collaborative work between national or other laboratories receiving specimens in countries with outbreaks and the international network of specialized H5 reference laboratories coordinated by WHO. WHO seeks permission from the country that provides the virus to place the sequence information in the public domain.

WHO believes that timely sharing of H5 virus sequence information is a critical step for improving the international response to the avian and pandemic influenza threat. In its coordinating role, WHO seeks to facilitate the timely release of sequence data to the public domain, such as the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Influenza Sequence Database and GenBank. Formal procedures exist by which the WHO reference laboratory initially informs the originating laboratory of sequence results and simultaneously requests permission to place these results in the public domain. In the event of a negative reply or no reply, WHO directly approaches the Ministry of Health in the originating country, requesting authorization to release sequence data.”

Nightowl – at 08:02

IMO, by publicly stating the procedure (and thereby defending itself), the WHO is applying pressure on individual countries. A welcome development.

However, the way the WHO wrote this information implies that all genetic sequencing is done this way (first sentence above). It took me a couple of read throughs to realize there are two ways for a country to be less than transparent. The first is to not authorize the WHO to release the sequences. The second is to simply not provide the virus specimens to the WHO reference laboratory in the first place. The WHO procedure only kicks in if they have a specimen.

So a country, especially one where the WHO has not been invited in during an outbreak, could falsely appear transparent by letting WHO release the sequences on the specimens they’ve provided to the WHO lab, while withholding other virus specimens at the same time. Do I have this right?

Monotreme – at 10:11

Thanks gharris and Nighowl for posting this. Some time back I suggested that the WHO should do this. So, I would be remiss if I didn’t praise them for doing it. This is a huge improvement over the old policy.

Nightowl, I think your interpretation of the loophole is correct. And the country in the best position to use it is China. Now that the CDC has finally agreed to release their sequences, it is time to renew our call for complete transparency from China.

Let’s start by getting the sequences from Shi the solider, the first reported case of H5N1 in mainland China. The paper was published in the New England Journal of Medicine. Why weren’t the sequences released? What is the Chinese goverment hiding?

Is there something in those sequences that would be emabarassing to them?

beehiver – at 10:35

Hello Monotreme & group - you wrote at 10:11: Now that the CDC has finally agreed to release their sequences,

It’s my understanding the CDC will only be releasing sequences acquired from the U.S.A. The article posted at this ProMed link says:

‘’The information added will include viruses from the annual flu season in the United States, any animal influenza viruses that infect humans and any novel strains that may emerge such as avian influenza H5N1. The new agreement will only apply to viruses isolated in the United States.’‘

And, it is followed up by an astute ProMed moderator comment: [This is a welcome and valuable initiative, although to some extent it is devalued by its restriction to viruses isolated in the United States. - Mod.CP]

Hopefully this clarifies what the CDC is doing…er, not doing or not able to do…regarding sequences from outside the U.S.A.

Monotreme – at 10:40

beehiver – at 10:35

You’re correct. But there are other iniatives that will force the CDC to release at least some of their other sequences, for example, the Indonesian sequences are being released.

The battle is not won, but things have definitely improved.

beehiver – at 10:52

Monotreme, I hope you are correct that additional efforts will force the CDC to do that. It seems the devil’s in the details regarding this whole problem. I’m finding it interesting that Indonesia is now sending seqs to the CDC, and while trying not to be overly judgmental, is this yet another manuveur to delay release of seqs, or perhaps some back-room deal going on with officials in Indonesia? Honestly I am trying to think positive about all this, but am getting tired of the same-old same-old going that’s been going on for so long. I’d like to think it’s not all about money or glory and fame. But as one scientist said this past week, the monitoring, response and information release regarding H5N1 needs to be happening in a much more timely manner, if we are going to have a chance at dealing with it at all.

Sorry for the rant. My patience is wearing a bit thin.

Tom DVM – at 10:56

Beehiver. As I have said in the past, my hobby or obsession is finding patterns…it appears that we have a trend-line building at the moment…if independent scientists and non-independent scientists all over the world are ‘lossing patience’ than in my mind, that is a good thing.

beehiver – at 11:19

Tom DVM, I fully agree. Some important signals picked up on this past week, are the fact that a few scientists are beginning to speak up. For instance, Dr. de Jong warning about indiscriminate use of Tamiflu blanket. He was one of the lead scientists doing the research in the case of the Vietnamese girl who developed a second Tamiflu-resistant strain while being ill with H5N1, and died from the second strain (the researchers isolated and sequenced both strains). The case is detailed in this article. De Jong is certainly qualified to know what he is talking about.

The point being, when scientists start sounding warning signals - my antennae go on high alert.

There are already ruomors being floated from some scientists that the virus is now changing in some more or less significant way. In itself, that’s not surprising, because that’s what influenza viruses are good at. Certainly the fact that we are seeing one or more suspected or verified new cases nearly everyday in Indonesia, is clinical indication the virus is changing in some manner. And it’s probably been happening elsewhere, under the smoke.

anon_22 – at 13:34

I have a question:

Formal procedures exist by which the WHO reference laboratory initially informs the originating laboratory of sequence results and simultaneously requests permission to place these results in the public domain. In the event of a negative reply or no reply, WHO directly approaches the Ministry of Health in the originating country, requesting authorization to release sequence data.”

When I read this, it doesn’t say to me the WHO is establishing new procedures or rules or guidelines, just that ‘formal procedures’ already ‘exist’. And it does not sound any different from previous provisions under the International Health Regulations.

I read this as more of a bland statement to cover their backside and say “well, here’s what we do”. But what they do is nothing more than ‘requesting authorization’. The WHO reference labs still cannot automatically release the sequence.

The cynical me thinks this is a directive to make sure scientists of WHO reference labs do not release the sequences without authorization from the countries.

How is that different from before?

anon_22 – at 13:40

It also means authorization has to be obtained explicitly every time. Which gives everyone the chance to drag out the process, as ‘formal’ aka diplomatic procedures can be spun out over long periods of time.

Which was exactly the situation we’ve been having.

Methinks this is the WHO peeing over the boundaries to say “this is my territory, ain’t nobody allowed to muck around in here.”

Tom DVM – at 15:02

“WHO peeing over the boundaries…”

anon 22…I am shocked…/:0)

Can you feel yourself starting to move…over to the dark side…it is only a matter of time till you are cursing at the WHO as much as myself and Monotreme…give in anon 22…it’s only a matter of time.

ANON-YYZ – at 15:07

Tom DVM – at 15:02

How does a rhino protect it’s turf?

Lauralou – at 15:32

I suspect that Anon_22 might have intended it to say “peering over the boundaries….” but at the moment I am laughing too hard to be sure! :-)

ANON-YYZ – at 15:36

Lauralou – at 15:32

Ah, but …… muck around?

Some times you can only take so much sugar.

Lauralou – at 15:46

ANON-YYZ- at 15:36

I think you are correct. Peeing it is! (and I have to say that my patience with the WHO ran out months ago.) However, that is about the best laugh I’ve had in days!

anon_22 – at 15:47

Tom & Lauralou,

Both of you have too little confidence in my ability to shift between the dark and the light.

:-)

Klatu – at 15:49

Nightowl – at 05:05 wrote:

Thank you, gharris, for originally posting this information on the Aug23 news thread at 17:13. WHO procedures for obtaining release of H5N1 sequences to the public domain 23 August 2006

…”Currently, the genetic sequencing of H5N1 viruses is a product of collaborative work between national or other laboratories receiving specimens in countries with outbreaks and the international network of specialized H5 reference laboratories coordinated by WHO.


I would imagine the those interests that pay for the laboratories and the salaries of the scientists, have significant input as to what commincated. Follow the money. Increasing the pandemic level another notch would cause the Indonesian economy to tank and increase the possiblility of a domino effect in global markets. But then, I could be wrong and so could the World Bank.

World Bank Says Bird Flu Threatens Indonesian Economy (Update3)

(excerpt)

Aug. 24 (Bloomberg) — Rich countries need to help fight bird flu in Indonesia, where the virus has killed an average of one person a week this year, because it poses a ``quite severe’‘ threat to its economy, a World Bank official said.

http://tinyurl.com/q7tmn

anon_22 – at 16:15

Tom DVM – at 15:02

Can you feel yourself starting to move…over to the dark side…it is only a matter of time till you are cursing at the WHO as much as myself and Monotreme…give in anon 22…it’s only a matter of time.

:-)

I like the assumptions you make behind that question.

I don’t get mad as much as you and Monotreme do at the WHO not because I have any fondness for it, but because I know it for what it is.

Perhaps I can give an analogy. If it is in the nature of tigers to hunt down and eat zebras, do you get mad at the tiger for doing so?

Stuff that you guys complain about, I don’t like them either. But the whole UN system is the way it is, and worse things have happened in its name. Doesn’t make it right, but it doesn’t deserve a disturbance of my tranquility and wasting my very limited time.

So from time to time I will point out on this forum the nature of the tiger; don’t be fooled by what it says. Read carefully everything that you encounter. Interpret it always in the context of the UN/World Health Assembly system, and not according to how you think it should be.

anon_22 – at 16:30

Monotreme – at 10:11

“‘’Let’s start by getting the sequences from Shi the solider, the first reported case of H5N1 in mainland China.’”

You may already know this but the first reported case of H5N1 originating from Mainland China happened before this soldier. This was the family cluster from Hong Kong visiting Fujian in February 2003, with the daughter dying of unknown causes in China and a father and I think an younger brother confirmed positive when they returned to Hong Kong. (A/HK/212/03 and A/HK/213/03)

Nightowl – at 17:16

I definitely have a different take on this. By, moving the information out of the health regulation arena, where the information is read by the few, and posting it on their website in a form that can be read by the many, they are providing the means for the public to oversee and question the process. (I agree, as I stated above, that there is an element of defense.) I see it as instructive to the world audience as opposed to their reference labs who already know the procedure.

For example, knowing that the lab has to receive the specimen provides Checkpoint One for us to watch.

Checkpoint Two is in the paragraph Anon_22 cited, where it states that when the WHO reference lab that sequences the specimen reports back to the originating lab, they “simultaneously” request permission to release from the lab. If the lab is pre-authorized, it’s a go, and they don’t need permission from the ministry. In other words, applying Indonesia, it looks like their labs can authorize release without having to go up the ladder now. We can also track whether the reference lab is following procedure or sitting on the sequences.

Checkpoint Three is where they have to go to the ministry.

As Anon_22 has pointed out, the time factor and ability to drag out the process can plague the process every step of the way. But once again, we are alerted to the pressure points. We should have a reasonable idea of how long a given process should take.

Now I’m going to use China and the NEJM as an example. Checkpoint One is whether a WHO reference lab received the specimen. This is tricky.

…”In line with WHO recommendations, confirmatory testing in a laboratory affiliated with the Ministry of Health was arranged. Following an official request, WHO sent laboratory experts to consult with national experts performing the tests. That joint undertaking, conducted in late July, confirmed the man’s infection with the H5N1 virus”… (from WHO Situation in China, Update 13)

It looks to me as if China may have circumvented the procedure (a laboratory affiliated with the Ministry of Health and calling WHO experts to it as opposed to sending the specimen to a WHO reference lab such as Hong Kong). China’s Ministry of Health is the pressure point. If China had authorized the release, and the sequences were held up by scientists at a reference lab, then the lab would be the pressure point (possible example: Indonesia). The odd thing is that I can’t find the name of the lab in China that confirmed the NEJM case. Seems deliberately left out of all press releases. For all I know, the Ministry of Health lab is also a WHO reference lab (Hong Kong), but we can find this out.

The bottom line is that I am less concerned as to whether the WHO procedures are new or old. I am appreciative to the WHO for making the process more accessible to the public. By educating the public, the number of people watching the process can increase dramatically. I believe they do deserve praise for this.

However, it doesn’t stop me from being critically aware that the WHO stops short of simply posting where the sequences are in the process. They could do this in their situation updates: “The WHO reference lab in X location received a specimen from X country today to sequence.” Or “The WHO reference lab sequenced X countries’ specimens and requested permission for release today” and so on. A thread on what we would like to see in terms of WHO transparency and the procedure would be good perhaps.

anon_22 – at 17:30

Nightowl,

If the lab is pre-authorized, it’s a go, and they don’t need permission from the ministry. In other words, applying Indonesia, it looks like their labs can authorize release without having to go up the ladder now.

Do we know for sure that any country has pre-authorized the release of sequences in this way? If you know, can you provide the source? I would be very surprised if countries are willing to do that. I would of course be very happy but I won’t believe it until I see it :-)

anon_22 – at 17:34

Nightowl,

With regards to China and the NEJM business, FYI China is the only country which does not send specimens to outside labs. Current WHO procedure requires confirmation of H5N1 infection in humans to be confirmed by a WHO reference lab outside of the country where the sample originated. China is the only exception, and WHO accepts China’s word when told that there is or is not a confirmed case of H5N1.

Under the UN, sovereign countries are equal entities. It seems also that some countries are more equal than others.

Tom DVM – at 17:34

The World Health Organization was Okay as long as they were doing no harm…well they are doing harm…a lot of harm…some of which we have discussed over the last six months…some might say ad nauseum.

What it has come down to, in my opinion, is that it is either them or me and since I don’t intend it to be me (us the collective) then it is going to have to be them…

…and if they don’t mend their ways and this pandemic hits the way I expect it to…then they are not…not going to hide behind that cute little mandate that some might interpret as an escape from responsibility clause.

This is not going to be like SARS repeated in a lot of ways. One of the ways is they are not going to reinvent history and escape their share of the blame this time!!

anon_22 – at 17:43

Tom,

I wish ‘share of blame’ is enough to move things in international politics. I really do. But I look at everything that’s happened in the world and I’m very pessimistic that things will change much by public opinion alone.

The only things that will cause countries like China or Indonesia to act differently are benefits and concessions that other countries are willing to trade for. Right now, the US which is the biggest kid on the block has very few marbles in its pocket to trade with anyone. The rest of the developed world eg the EU has even less. And everyone knows that. China and Indonesia (NB for Indonesia also read ‘the Islamic world’) are in strong bargaining positions if you want them to do anything differently.

anon_22 – at 17:49

beehiver – at 10:52 “I’m finding it interesting that Indonesia is now sending seqs to the CDC, and while trying not to be overly judgmental, is this yet another manuveur to delay release of seqs, or perhaps some back-room deal going on with officials in Indonesia?

They are sending sequences only to the CDC as opposed to sending both to the CDC and to Hong Kong before. The only effect of that is to cut the Chinese off from early access to their data.

Tom DVM – at 17:50

Annon 22 It has been apparent since last February when I popped in for one post and am still here, that you and I are probably equally frustrated and have been ever since then.

So here is what I want. I want the World Health Organization TO STOP LYING, to stop deliberately misleading, to stop spinning every piece of information that comes along, I want them to stop setting themselves up as the excuse by which my regulatory agencies and governments use to sit on their hands and do nothing…

…that is a pretty simple request…I am asking them to be scientists, not the politicians and by the way bad politicians they have been for the past five years…

…If they don’t have control over the sequences say so…If a country won’t do the right thing say so etc. etc. etc.

I want them to use scientific principles, method and philosophy…and when they do and break themselves out of their lazy habits then I will get at the front of their parade and raise the UN flag and be a proud citizen of the world.

What do you think the odds are of this simple request being fulfilled?

anon_22 – at 17:50

“We will let you look at the sequences first in return for tamiflu.”

Maybe.

anon_22 – at 17:53

Tom DVM – at 17:50

I want the World Health Organization TO STOP LYING

Sorry to be cynical. You might as well want the earth to stop spinning.

Never forget the origin of the WHO. An offshoot of any entity will always bear characteristics of that entity.

WHO is an offshoot of a diplomatic entity.

You expect those folks to tell the truth????

Tom DVM – at 17:53

Okay ANON YYZ. I’ll bite…how does a rhino protect its turf?

Tom DVM – at 17:55

annon 22 Point well taken…but we (the collective of scientists) have to stop appeasing them or we become complicit by our silence!!

anon_22 – at 18:05

We are not appeasing them. I am going around telling it like it is.

That for example as far as this issue is concerned, this recent announcement indicates that the WHO is not doing anything differently.

Nightowl – at 19:02

Anon_22 at 17:34 - Thank you for confirming that China does, in fact, circumvent the procedures. All the more reason for us to be skeptical about any information they put out without outside confirmation. Also, if you could provide a link to the source of your information, I would appreciate it.:-)

Anon_22 at 17:30 - Regarding the pre-authorization of release at the lab level: I do not know for sure if any country already does that, which is why I said “looks like” in regard to Indonesia because that is how it looks to me now, but it didn’t look that way in the past. I certainly could be wrong. I cannot provide any source to confirm. But it would be nice if we could.

The WHO’s phrase “in the event of a negative reply or no reply” implies that the procedures anticipate some originating labs being able to give permission to release sequences without government approval. Otherwise, why even put it in the procedures? Why not go straight to the ministry every time? It doesn’t mean that the current countries with outbreaks are doing this now or that future countries won’t IMHO. As things countinue to get more time-critical, we may see a lot of changes.

I think the WHO was wise to include this option. Further, in some countries, authorization from the government may not be needed at all. Would Webster have to get authorization from the U.S. government to release sequences? I don’t think so.

anon_22 – at 19:50

Nightowl – at 19:02

Anon_22 at 17:34 - Thank you for confirming that China does, in fact, circumvent the procedures. All the more reason for us to be skeptical about any information they put out without outside confirmation. Also, if you could provide a link to the source of your information, I would appreciate it.:-)

The following is from WHO guidelines for global surveillance of influenza A/H5

“WHO also recommends that the first positive laboratory identification of influenza A/H5 virus in humans in any country or territory be confirmed by one of the WHO reference laboratories for diagnosis of influenza A/H5 infection (see Annex 6).”

“In addition, and until further notice, WHO requests that all human influenza A/H5 virus isolates or samples be sent to one of the WHO reference laboratories for diagnosis of influenza A/H5 infection (see Annex 6).”

“Only information regarding confirmed cases will be made available in the public domain.”

When you go and read the updates, especially the earlier ones with more details of samples sent, you realize that every confirmed case was confirmed by a WHO reference lab. Except for China, like here or here. Recent cases were announced to the world by the Chinese authorities telling the Hong Kong government and then the WHO.


With regards to your comments on authorization, you are still reading this business in an altruistic way. :-) We discussed this rather extensively a while back here under the International Health Regulations.I would be very surprised if Webster does not require authorization from the government to release sequence information. Remember that until now the CDC has been operating a ‘no disclosure until proven otherwise’ policy. The NIH has had a different policy for a while, of depositing everything in GenBank.

These are legal issues which can be changed at the discretion of the institution or country but not at the discretion of individual laboratories or scientists.

Klatu – at 20:02

anon_22 – at 19:50 wrote:

“These are legal issues which can be changed at the discretion of the institution or country but not at the discretion of individual laboratories or scientists.”


Put another way - follow the money. Who pays for the labs and the scientist’s salaries? If bad news emanates from those labs, it might compromise the ability of some parties to continue paying for those labs and salaries.

Nightowl – at 20:50

Anon_22 at 19:50 - Thank you for the links and the excellent tracking and analysis of China in regard to sequence release. Confirmation enough for me.

Regarding Webster, I was speaking about U.S H5N1 sequences in the future. Sorry, obviously, I wasn’t clear.

Regarding your “patronizing with a smile” comment repeated here: “With regards to your comments on authorization, you are still reading this business in an altruistic way. :-) “

I will only say I had a good LOL as I have been such a critic of TPTB on this forum from the WHO on down. I’ll take it as a compliment.

Monotreme – at 21:19

The WHO may have non-altruistic reasons for their statement, but the question is, can we use it to our advantage? I think yes. For example, we can say it is the Turkish government that is witholding the sequences from the human cases. So, let’s boycott Turkey! Now, I am perhaps being naive about the details of why Turkey has not released the sequences, but that might be deliberate ;-)

I say we go after every country that does not release sequences within 1 month of sequencing (that is more than enough time to deposit them). Our response should be harsh and unforgiving. If we inflict enough pain on the relevant countries, perhaps they will release the sequences (or reveal other things of interest). In any case, I’m going to interpret that WHO statement without parsing it too carefully.

Speaking of which…

China still has not released the sequences of Shi the soldier. Why not? He wasn’t involved in a bioweapons program, was he? Why is China hiding the sequences from the virus that killed this soldier?

They are selectively releasing some sequences but not others, retracting some sequences, but not others. Attempting to block some papers, but not others. Only thing that makes sense to me is the Chinese government has something very bad to hide. Like a bioweapon (or a vaccine against a bioweapon) gone horribly wrong.

anon_22 – at 21:28

Nightowl,

It WAS meant as a compliment. :-)

Nightowl – at 21:39

Monotreme - I want to know why China is not disclosing the sequences of the soldier as well. Are all the sequences released for the other human cases that we know about?

I’m ready to flood the Chinese embassy with letters. The press would definitely pick that up. All we have to do is provide them with a copy of the letter. Even mail copies to the various state run presses in China. Plus Taiwan, Macao, and Hong Kong.

Nightowl – at 22:33

DemFromCt has just posted a link on the CDC thread to an absolutely must read article in Nature regarding sequence release. I am reposting his link here.

link

Tom DVM – at 23:28

Nightowl.

“I’m ready to flood the Chinese embassy with letters.”

I have been watching and analyzing China with respect to food quality, safety and a variety of pathogens very carefully for seven years…

…THEY DON’T CARE!!

anonymous – at 23:45

even if there is no juristic pressure, it seems there is some public pressure building to release the sequences. Those who don’t will be marked more effectively as “evil”. Hey, let’s share the data ! You get all the data from other countries but you should also give us yours ! Then Indonesia might say :… but we have more data than the others, that’s unfair. And China might say: we have no more data - and noone beleaves it. But it’s a step forward when countries in principle agree that the data should be public. Next year Indonesia could be birdflufree and Vietnam is again a hot spot or India turns into secrecy, then Indonesia and China have few arguments to require the release. So it’s good to agree now on the principle. I would also advocate a premium for the release of each sequence. And a list on the WHO webpage which country has shared and withheld how many sequences.

anonymous – at 23:54

what’s the reason for the 6 month’s delay, how is it justified ? They want to hide the possible emergence of pandemic danger as long as possible ? Or they want to ensure that noone else can publish something ? If it’s the latter, they should really find another solution to protect the copyright of the submitter. It can’t be that difficult.

25 August 2006

Monotreme – at 00:00

Nightowl, China has released a few sequences from some of the patients, but have not released most of them. Tom DVM is right that they may not care, but it wouldn’t hurt to let them know that we have noticed. They cannot hide behind the WHO anymore. They can’t say the Americans are hypocrites anymore. They can’t say most other countries are hiding their sequences anymore. Even poor corrupt Indonesia is releasing it’s sequences. China’s refusal to release their sequences looks increasingly sinister.

One thing I am curious about is why the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) did not require the authors to release the sequences from the soldier. Most journals require this upon publication.

Perhaps it would be worth asking them. Here is the NEJM contact page.

Here is the editorial contact information.

Here is a link to the paper. Fatal Infection with Influenza A (H5N1) Virus in China. It is especially important to get the sequences from this virus as the paper refers to it as a “mixed” virus.

These findings suggest that influenza A/Beijing/01/2003 may be a mixed virus.

This is odd terminology for virologists to use, I think. Do they mean it is a reassortant or something else? How is it that genomic segments from viruses from different regions of China got together in Shi the soldier? Enquiring minds want to know.

Nightowl – at 00:02

TomDVM - I know. :-(

I am one of the go down fighting types. China may be more sensitive to bad press with the Olmypics coming up. Maybe your eighth year will be the one. At least we can keep calling them on their game. Like signing onto the letter about the new sequence database, but still haven’t released the NEJM sequences. (I just read the news thread; I sure am late to the party on the Nature article and Klatu’s Maria Cheng piece. That will teach me to check the news thread earlier!)

anonymous – at 00:03

the real worms are from China, right ?

Tom DVM – at 00:08

Monotreme. The only thing they are worried about at the moment is that their coming out party, the Olympics in 2008 are not affected by bad plublicity…

…If you want to get them…link it to the Olympics.

By the way…they also do not care whether we tell them “we have noticed” or not…

…it’s just another reality we must face and understand to move forward.

Tom DVM – at 00:12

Let me put it another way and I will only say this once because I don’t want to be considered a Chinese citizen basher when I really am only a Chinese Government basher and maybe sometime I will get a chance to tell the whole story and you will understand that my opinions are based on sound evidence.

I ask you to consider the following philosophical question.

What makes you think that a Government founded on the machine gunning of several thousand of their children would care about your children.

Nightowl – at 00:36

TomDVM - I am positive that they do not care about my child. That’s why I choose to keep fighting this.

Monotreme - That is really wierd about how the mix came to be. This article is so loaded with information that is dependent on sequences for further detail. I am curious about the article being submitted as a correspondence and not a full blown article. Was it to rush the info out or to deliberately keep it short?

Nightowl – at 00:38

Monotreme - or do a correspondence to avoid the sequence list. You know how these things work. What do you think?

Nightowl – at 00:38

Monotreme - or do a correspondence to avoid the sequence release. You know how these things work. What do you think?

Monotreme – at 00:40

Tom DVM, Yes, we all have to make clear that we are bashing the Chinese government and not the Chinese people. Sometimes we say “China this” or “China that” and in our minds we mean the government but overseas Chinese might think we mean the Chinese people. It doesn’t hurt to clarify ourselves every once in a while.

I am still haunted by Qinghai. We don’t know whether the Boxun reports are true, but if so we can only guess at the horrors the people there have endured. And what they will have to endure in the future.

Monotreme – at 00:47

Nightowl, everything about that paper is weird. I can’t imagine a reviewer reading that paper and not insisting on seeing the sequences. You can’t properly judge their figures without access to the sequences. In a scientific paper you are obliged to provide all the data necessary for another scientist to repeat your findings. Their findings were the phylogenetics analyses. Well, there is no way another scientist can repeat that analysis without the sequences. So, publishing the paper without the sequences violates two priniciples of science:

1. The reviewers need adequate information to judge the value of paper.

2. The readers need adequate information to repeat the analyses.

It’s pretty hard to guess the motives of the authors, but the Editors of the NEJM really should explain their motives in publishing this paper without the requiring deposit of the sequences.

anonymous – at 00:55

it is possible to show phylo-trees without the sequences. You could even get it approved by a confident but reliable notary or such. And both could just be wrong,constructed,lies. No guarantee that a submitted sequence is correct.

Tom DVM – at 01:06

Unfortunately the Chinese Government doesn’t a couple of credo’s

Do unto others as you would have them do unto you.

What goes around, comes around.

Monotreme you can bet that Qinghai was true…a little reinforcement for Tianamen.

The bottome lin for me in 1998 was that in my wildest dreams, I never thought anyone would be stupid enough or malicious enough to use formaldehyde (embalming fluid) as a food preservative…let alone the concentrations that they achieved…

…they demonstrated to me very clearly that they had complete disdain for their fellow travellers on this planet and particularly children…

…therefore I have zero respect for them.

I have great sympathy for the persons who are enslaved to these .

26 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:55

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / CDC to Release Sequences to Genbank

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: CDC to Release Sequences to Genbank

23 August 2006

DemFromCTat 18:23

I want to make sure everyone sees this:

CDC and APHL Make Influenza Virus Sequence Data Publicly Accessible

Collaboration with public health labs will foster greater research and openness Scientists at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have released genetic blueprints for over 650 genes of influenza viruses into a database accessible to researchers worldwide. The action marks the beginning of a collaboration between the CDC and the Association of Public Health Laboratories (APHL) that will allow for greater access to data on a variety of influenza virus samples obtained from patients in the United States, including avian influenza H5N1 if it should arrive here.

Through the new collaboration, CDC expects to provide genetic information for several hundred influenza viruses per year as a way to encourage more research on influenza. The sequence data will be available in nearly real time through Genbank, a public-access library for virus sequences managed by the National Institutes of Health, and through an influenza database housed at Los Alamos National Laboratories (LANL). The information added will include viruses from the annual flu season in the United States, any animal influenza viruses that infect humans and any novel strains that may emerge such as avian influenza H5N1. The new agreement will only apply to viruses isolated in the United States.

“CDC has long supported the timely and open sharing of influenza virus information to foster new research on influenza. We’re excited that this historic collaboration with APHL provides a way to make international exchange of this information possible,” said Dr. Nancy Cox, director of the CDC’s Influenza Division. “With more information, the world’s influenza experts can advance our understanding of the viruses circulating, potentially create new prevention strategies and treatments, and ultimately help us better protect the health of people around the world.”

The sequence information, which is like a DNA fingerprint of each virus, allows researchers to determine more about a virus’s origin and to compare it to other influenza viruses. This will help scientist determine whether the virus is susceptible to antiviral drugs and, in the case of avian influenza currently circulating in much of the world, to assess whether it’s changing in a way that might make the virus more easily transmissible among people - a key property the virus would need to acquire to spark a pandemic. In addition, the sequences can be used to better identify the strains that should be included in the yearly flu vaccine.

Previously, the influenza sequences were available to a small number of influenza researchers who work together with WHO to recommend which influenza viruses should be included in influenza vaccines around the world. The sequence data will now be available through GenBank to anyone with Internet access.

APHL, the national association representing public health laboratories, collaborated with its members to gain approval from all 50 state laboratories to make sequence data from influenza viruses tested in these labs publicly available. APHL promotes effective programs and public policy to strengthen laboratory capacity to protect the health of US residents and to prevent and control disease globally.

“State health department laboratories analyze and subtype thousands of influenza viruses each year. If a novel virus is out there, we will likely be the first to detect it. This is why public health labs are a critical part of our country’s early warning system for pandemic influenza, and why this collaboration with CDC is so important,” said APHL President Dr. Jane Getchell.

State public health laboratories participate in national influenza surveillance efforts by subtyping viruses and routinely submitting some influenza viruses to CDC for more in-depth characterization. CDC asks public health labs to submit samples of influenza viruses from the beginning, peak and end of each flu season, as well as any samples that are unusual. Under the new agreement, if a novel strain is identified at CDC, the state laboratory which submitted it would be notified prior to the posting in Genbank or LANL databases.

CDC has been actively working with the World Health Organization to encourage sharing of viruses from countries with avian flu activity. After the Indonesian government recently agreed to make available the sequences for viruses from Indonesian bird flu patients, CDC placed total genome sequences for over 40 H5N1 viruses into a public-access database.

“We hope these initiatives will set the stage for other countries to adopt similar approaches to the release of Influenza virus sequence data that they manage” Dr. Cox said.

DemFromCTat 18:25

Link is here.

DemFromCTat 18:26

More discussion at Effect Measure.

2beans – at 18:30

DemFromCT:

Any guesses as to how much, if any, effect the petition had in bringing this to fruition?

DemFromCTat 18:35

guesses are free… it had considerable effect, as did all the publicity. ;-)

2beans – at 18:38

Oh me of little faith; I feel so……..POWERFUL!

DemFromCTat 18:45

You should, as should everyone here.

mmmelody47 – at 20:24

DemFromCT – at 18:45

Monotreme provided the train and you supplied the track. Good job all!

24 August 2006

Nightowl – at 15:18

mmmelody47 at 20:24 - beautifully said. I agree completely!

mmmelody47 – at 20:41

Nightowl – at 15:18

Thank you!

anonymous – at 21:09

variety of influenza virus samples obtained from patients in the United States, including avian influenza H5N1 if it should arrive here.


so H5N1-sequences will only be released from US-patients and only if H5N1 arrives in USA ? I’m not sure if it even includes sequences from US-birds. And only when H5N1 arrives in USA ?

For normal flu we have enough sequences and they are very similar, that’s not so useful. Except maybe for the seasonal flu-vaccine but not for H5N1 research.

DemFromCTat 21:55

it’s a start… it’s not complete. But with this, it should help.

Nightowl – at 22:03

Wow, Dem, thanks for the link. Can you give it more visibility?

26 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:54

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Cooperative Thinking Water Part 2

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Cooperative Thinking Water Part 2

18 June 2006

BroncoBillat 01:37

Continued from here.

20 June 2006

MaMa- Still open – at 01:11

02 August 2006

RICHARD_FL – at 20:25

I’m just an average home owner who has a few questions.

1. Can H5N1 survive in water? 2. Can the birds with H5N1 gain access to the water cycle? 3. Can the birds pass H5N1 into the water supply like (Droppings)

4. If yes to 1–3 How do we detect it in our supply system? 5. How do we kill H5N1 virus in the supply system and still be able use it?

6. How will the water company tell us that the water is contaminated? 7. After warning; Do I have to boil all my water for all usage (showers/toilets/etc.)?

If these questions don’t get you thinking I don’t know what will.

Mari – at 20:48

If it’s a virus like other viruses, bleach, iodine, or heat will kill/inactivate it.

prepmaniac – at 20:50

1- Yes. In cool water for a month or more. I think the biggest public concern for droppings is in water used for recreation. —Lakes where ducks nest and people swim.-−2,3,4 ? 5.You can kill the virus by using bleach in the water or by boiling it. 6? 7. I would not take a shower in contaminated water. I would treat the water for the toilet with bleach. The virus may become airborn when you flush the toilet if the water is contaminated. You wouldn’t have to boil all the water, but you certainly need to treat it. Carefully.

Melanie – at 20:52

Use bleach in your flush tank. It’s hell on the rubber pieces, but they are cheap to replace.

03 August 2006

Bronco Bill – at 01:18

bump

04 August 2006

student – at 16:20

I am a student and i was wondering if anyone has any specific information or links from municipalities or water companies/departments adressing the issue of pan flu

Melanie – at 16:26

Here’s a link to the Wiki section on water supplies.

24 August 2006

blackbird – at 00:15

Excellent, excellent work! A couple of the links didn’t work for me on the “Public Water Supply page here http://tinyurl.com/f4sdn

References section: Questions to ask Your Local Utilities — File not found

Emergency Water Purification Methods: Information from FEMA — We Recently Redesigned Our Site and Some Pages Have Moved……

Posting here as directed “to make suggestions for corrections.”

bumping for bill and monotreme – at 10:42
pfwag – at 21:41

So I would know what to do to protect my family from potentially contaminated water, I spent a considerable amount of time (easily over 500 hours) researching water and related topics over the last 6 months. All of the information is contained in a report I am compiling from all the research and information I collected: “WATER - Everything you ever wanted to know or at least need to know about water so that you won’t ever be without safe drinking water.

It is currently about 95 pages and will be finished as soon as a filter expert completes his field testing on a low cost solution I proposed.

I am making the report available to anybody who wants it (free and I am not selling anything) Send me an e-mail pfwag@lycos.com It should be finished in about a week. Maybe longer if BB doesn’t give me his feedback.

When finished, maybe Melanie will post it in the FluWiki references so I don’t have to send it out.

The Table of Contents is listed below. If you want info on any particular topic now, let me know and I’ll post it on the thread or send me an e-mail and I’ll send you the chapter. However, there are many hundreds of links in the report - too many to manually transpose with tinyurl into a posting.

If there are any EXPERTS or very knowledgeable FluWikians out there that would like to review any or all of the report for accuracy before I make it publically available and it grows wings please contact me ASAP.

By that I mean that there is much incorrect info about water being circulated and repeated, even on the FluWiki. As an example, you have often heard that to disinfect your water use regular Clorox bleach. While that is nice, it does not kill the one thing that is almost assuredly in all surface water sources - Cryptosporidium and Giardia cysts. If you get BF you may or may not die depending on your age and health. However if you get BF and Crypt or Giardia you will surely die.

Here is what the report contains:

INTRODUCTION WATER WHY SHOULD YOU STORE WATER HOW MUCH WATER IS NEEDED? SOURCES of WATER

 A. WATER IN YOUR HOME 
   Hot Water Heater 
   Water Pipes 
   Freezer
   Toilet 
   Swimming pool 
 B. STORING WATER 
   Bottled Water and other liquids
   Plastic Bottle Types
   Plastic Water Jugs 
   55G water barrels 
   Water Bladder (Pillow Tank) 
   Water Bed Mattresses and Other Storage Devices 
   Water Tanks 
   Swimming Pool 
   Using Empty Food Containers for Storing Water 
   Filling Water Storage Containers 
   Taste & Smell 
   Shelf Life 

C. WELL WATER D. SURFACE WATER

   Springs 
   Rivers, Lakes, and Ponds 
   Rainwater 
   Snow or Ice 
   PURIFYING WATER 

EMERGENCY DISINFECTION OF WATER

  Waterborne Pathogens
  Cryptosporidium 

HEATING

 Boiling
 Distilling 
 Solar Still 

ULTRAVIOLET LIGHT PASTEURIZATION SOLAR DISINFECTANT of WATER CHEMICALLY TREAT

 Iodine
 Chlorine 
  Residual Chlorine – dpd indicator test
  Additional Information on Chlorine 
  Calcium Hypochlorite 
 Chlorine Dioxide 
 Ozone 
 Other Chemical Treatments 
 Miracle Water Treatments

FILTERING Cartride Filters Reverse Osmosis Activated Carbon Filter

  Granular Activated Carbon (GAC) 
  GAC pitcher and faucet mounted filters 
  Solid Block Activated Carbon (SBAC) 

Speciality Filters Filtering Conclusions Filtering Swimming Pool Water Portable Filters Gravity Filters Low Pressure Filter MISCELLANEOUS TYPICAL MUNICIPAL WATER TREATMENT SYSTEM

 Primary Treatment 
 Secondary Treatment 
 Tertiary Treatment 
 Final Adjustments 

INSTRUCTIONS FOR MAKING A MINI-WATER TREATMENT SYSTEM

 Aeration Methods 
 Procedure For Coagulation (flocculation) 
 Removal of Particulate Matter 

MAKING A LARGE CAPACITY GRANULAR ACTIVATED CHARCOL FILTER

 Parts to Get for the GAC and particulate filters 

WHAT YOU SHOULD GET TO ALWAYS HAVE SAFE DRINKING WATER TIPS for CONSERVING WATER

  Sanitation
  Other Tips 

WATER LINKS & REFERENCES

 WHO - Technical Notes for Emergencies 

The report has specific solutions and contains numerous links on where to go to get the best prices (other suggestions welcome!) I have no personal or financial ties with any of them. I have, however, spent considerable time, energy and money evaluating some of them.

26 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:54

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Page last modified on October 26, 2006, at 08:54 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Is it Too Late to Start Prepping

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Is it Too Late to Start Prepping

22 August 2006

anonymous – at 20:57
Dennis in Colorado – at 20:58

No, it is not too late.

Gary Near Death Valley – at 21:46

An oz of PREVENTION is worth a POUND of cure,,,,but this time,,,,there is no cure,,,

Feather Pillow – at 21:55

Best get started right now, though and you can still beat the crowds.

Monotreme – at 22:00

No!

Go here for ideas on what to do.

Northstar – at 22:01

Gary near Death Valley… that makes that oz of prevention go that much further.

Love your prep photos, btw. Awesome!

Yep, hop to, anonymous… sooner is better than later. There’s a lot you can do, and it really took a load off _my_ mind to know I had a little security tucked away.

amak – at 22:03

Are all your comments about do it NOW due to Indonesia or just in general?

Feather Pillow – at 22:18

To me, prepping means being prepared. Why wait? Some sort of crisis is always on its way. That’s not being negative….It’s just the way life is. Being prepared allows me to spend valuable time living instead of worrying. I think BF is close. Indonesia heightens my awareness of that just because it is in the focus right now. Ever since this was brought to my attention, though, I have had a strong intuitive feeling that this is a BIG one that is not going away. I want to give it my best shot to survive. Of course not everyone would want to survive it. But if you do, you have to prepare in some way.

blackbird – at 22:24

if not now, when?

‘preparation’ is the state of having been made ready beforehand. if the event is already here, it ain’t prep ;-)

seriously, it takes a while to get several years, months or even weeks worth of preparation done. it’s never too late to do what you can.

right now is a great time to get started.

Bronco Bill – at 22:33

And it’s not just prepping for a pandemic. In the US, on the West Coast, you’ve got ‘quakes and wildfires, in the South, hurricanes and flooding, in the Northeast, blizzards and flooding and heavy storms, in the Midwest, tornadoes and flooding. Other parts of the world have much of the same…being prepared means you may not have to stand in line for hours on end to get a few slices of bread and a bottle of water every day

Medical Maven – at 22:46

In some areas given a High CFR and little water availability it could be “over” in four to five weeks. After a severe winnowing due to the virus, thirst, and disorder there could be lots of food left here and there. You (anonymous) just need to get at least that much in preps, food, and water and learn some social distancing techniques and sanitary pracitices. After those four to five weeks there may not be that many people to distance yourself from given my scenario. But even with other less dire scenarios (but still catastrophic) in which more supplies would be preferable for a much longer period of time you would still be ahead.

 And the knowledge you gain here will be as crucial to your survival as any mountain of preps.   
Eccles – at 23:12

It is never too late to begin prepping. It is also never too early to begin prepping. If given the choice, you will do much better starting as early as you can. That means starting right now.

please don’t be intimidated by the massive mountains of supplies that some of us here describe. none of these piles of goodies was acquired instantly, nor, in most cases, were the owners aware of just how much stuff they would end up accumulating. You needn’t think that you need to do that.

Start at the beginning. The government recommends two weeks of food, water and mediciane for each family member. That is a number you can get your hands around. You can start smaller. How about 1 weeks worth. That’s 7 gallons of water per person, 7 days worth of prescription meds put aside, and Enough rice, beans, pasta, canned sauce, soup and veggies and other fixins for 7 breakfasts, 7 lunches and 7 dinners. I would also personally add 7 days worth of TP to the recommendation. throw in a few flashlights and batteries and you are prepped.

It needn’t be huge, it needn’t be elaborate and it needn’t be expensive. Water is free, containers are free if you drink soda and basic foods (not high end prepared foods) are downright cheap.

If you need help and advice, there are scads of folks here who will respond with answers to any questions or problems you bring to us.

Just get started. Remember it is better to prepare months too soon than one day too late.

NauticalManat 23:44

Many of us have added freeze dried and dehydrated foods to our mix. Ordered some of each Aug. 14, from Emergency Essentials, received them today, Aug. 22nd, this is faster than any time since I started prepping (back in Sept. 05) So the supplies are out there, but anyone who waits for TSTHF will more than likely find sources will have dried up…!

Eccles – at 23:50

Dehydrated foods…dried up!

That’s a good one.

23 August 2006

Kathy in FL – at 11:21

Prepping doesn’t have to be fancy. I’ve stocked more of the things that my family usually uses … only have very, very limited “real” prep stuff. I have a couple of #10 cans of dried eggs, and a #10 can of powdered margarine which I bought before I found out I could make a reasonable substitute using powdered milk.

I used to can and dehydrate a lot … then due to time constraints stopped. Last year I started doing it again … but more because the price of groceries and fuel was increasing faster than we could stretch the budget. Something had to give … so my time was stretched by adding in more prevervation activities. Actually, I’ve now found that I save time in the long run because I’m not having to run to the store nearly as often.

Its a trade off.

Don’t go for things that you family doesn’t normally eat. Some may be cheaper … but you won’t be nearly as happy with it in the long run. If you need to prep in that fashion, start introducing the new menu items to your family now. Lot easier to figure that kind of logistical stuff out now than when you might be spending a lot of your time nursing a sick family member(s) or doing other stuff “the old fashioned way” which means that normal activities might be more labor intensive given the availability … or lack there of … to fuel and power.

Hillbilly Bill – at 12:38

I’m right there with Kathy in FL. I have some dehydrated eggs and one can of onions. I have used her recipe for “homemade” margarine and find it completely satisfactory. The fact of the matter is that good, basic food is cheap in this country. There is lots of it in the store right now. That will not be the case if some type of emergency arises. What you need to do is transfer the shelf-stable food you like to eat from the store to your house. Simple as that. Just start buying ahead as you can afford, it mounts up if you are diligent.

As Eccles stated above, water is extremely inexpensive and containers to store it in are free. To not start putting it away is pure folly.

Quill – at 13:27

How long will water stored in those Blue five gallons containers last. These are the containers that are sold specifically to store water. I’m talking about city water, already chlorinated.

Hillbilly Bill – at 13:36

Quill – at 13:27

Six months for sure. I have tested it myself with no ill effects whatsoever.

Kathy in FL – at 22:30

Quill – at 13:27

A cheaper option is to store the water in 2-liter bottles … free to use after you empty the soda out of them. <grin>

Blue Ridge Mountain Mom – at 23:12

Kathy in FL - 11:21

and a #10 can of powdered margarine which I bought before I found out I could make a reasonable substitute using powdered milk.

Could you be so kind as to post your margarine recipe again? Thanks!

24 August 2006

crfullmoon – at 09:36

As long as the pandemic hasn’t started yet, it is not too late.

What can you do today? (What can your local essential services personnel do today, too? Have they seen the Flu Wiki yet?)

Little steps are something; would you be ready tomorrow if their was water main work on your street, or, a fluke power outtage for a week, or, a storm or an earthquake, or an illness or job loss? It doesn’t hurt to be prepared. Tangible “insurance”.

Being more prepared is a good thing all around.

amak – at 11:07

Kathy - I ask along with Blue Ridge Mom - can you repost or link to the butter/margarine recipe? And also how to get to the other recipe group you have? THANKS

Green Mom – at 14:03

I’d be happy to have that recipie also. Thanks, Kathy, your gonna keep us well fed through this!

Kathy in FL – at 15:54

Blue Ridge Mountain Mom – at 23:12, amak – at 11:07, Green Mom – at 14:03

I’ll repost the powdered milk to margarine recipe on the recipe thread so we can try and keep all of that info in one place.

Blue Ridge Mountain Mom – at 15:57

Kathy in FL - 15:54

You are the recipe goddess! Thank you!!!!

OKbirdwatcherat 17:09

I don’t buy soda in 2-liter bottles, but I have been buying bottled water (Ozarka brand here) in 3-liter clear PETE plastic bottles and rotating it, so getting quite a collection of them over this hot summer.

26 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:53

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Have You Discussed Qinghai Foot and Mouth Disease Yet

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Have You Discussed Qinghai Foot and Mouth Disease Yet

24 August 2006

Thinlina – at 14:04

http://tinyurl.com/eg3gq

Bronco Bill – at 14:38

Not really. This is a Flu discussion board.

Tom DVM – at 14:39

Hi thinlina. We have discussed Foot and Mouth disease in the context of the Chinese Governments repeated attempt to cover up emerging diseases in their country that go on to cause significant problems for the rest of the world. This is just another in a long list.

Bronco Bill – at 14:40

Thanks Tom DVM…I forgot about that.

Tom DVM – at 14:52

/:0)

Thinlina – at 15:46

Thanks, Tom DVM. That’s what I meant. BB, stupid joke (:

Thinlina – at 15:47

And how have they diagnosed if it really is FMD? Just wondering…

Bronco Bill – at 16:06

‘twasn’t a joke…

26 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:53

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Why Do You Think People Arent Prepping III

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Why Do You Think People Arent Prepping III

18 August 2006

Bronco Bill – at 12:29

Continued from here


Little Kahuna – at 12:06

People around here are caught in the 4 phases of denial:

1) It can’t happen 2) Even if it does happen, it is so far away, I don’t raise chickens, so it won’t affect me 3) Even if it does happen, there is nothing I can do about it 4) I knew it all along, somebody, the government, somebody is prepared so I’ll just go to them if I need to.

24 August 2006

Hide in the Hills and wait – at 12:40

I agree. Boy, will they be in for a rather large surprise. “He who waits to hide or run away won’t live for many a day.” Sometimes being an isolationist is a good thing.

26 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:51

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / 1918 Vs Present Day Society

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: 1918 Vs Present Day Society

16 July 2006

Jumping Jack Flash – at 21:12

1918 society did not rely very much on an electric power grid for existance.

The Romans were smart enough to realize the need for clean water for their empire to function. That’s why they built a vast GRAVITY fed aqueduct system.

IMO, today’s modern society has painted itself way to far into a corner with our electric powered water works and other critical infrastructure.

Given a total failure of the power grid and hence no water, how long do you think before the majority of population dies of thirst or hunger? I’m thinking 10 days - tops.

I personally think the vast majority of deaths in a pandemic will be collatoral, rather than from flu itself.

Woodstock – at 21:16

also people did not work in sealed high rises…or a man made petri dish as i see them

Medical Maven – at 21:26

I fear for large populations in desert areas of the developed world that depend on power to provide water. It could be catastrophic. Typhoid elsewhere could be just as bad.

Jumping Jack Flash – at 21:33

It’s not just desert areas. Think about 7 million thirsty New Yorkers drinking out of the Hudson River. The last time I was in New York (which is by no means a desert area) the Hudson River looked a little murky. Same goes for every other city in the modern world.

Medical Maven – at 21:50

Jumping Jack Flash at 21:33: Real quick there would be a winnowing of that portion of the population who could not withstand waterborne diseases. (There wouldn’t be enough crude filters and bleach even if most of the thirsty knew what to do). Boiling the water would help, but that would mean a lot of dangerous ad hoc fires. And the carcinogens, well that would be a longterm worry, unless sewage starts spilling into the water supply due to power loss.

This is why Confused Exec is so worried. The Grid HAS to stay up. Period.

anon_22 – at 22:30

People had larger families, more children. They were more used to losing one or two to illnesses. Families today will find that extremely traumatic and have almost no reference experience for coping.

Grace RN – at 22:41

Jumping Jack Flash – at 21:33 “Think about 7 million thirsty New Yorkers drinking out of the Hudson River.”

I remember a scene from a TV series when Michael J. Fox and another actor had to jump into the Hudson as part of the story line- they had to take antibiotics before and after the scene.

Good reason to keep a gallon of plain bleach around….

EOD – at 22:48

Most people did not travel like we do today. Other than those in the military a great percentage of people never traveled out of their oun county, and that was in the developed countries. Today over 10,000,000 cross international borders every single day and many do so making multiple connecting flights. I don’t think we have any idea how quickly this may spread across the planet and individual countries once it gets going.

Anon_451 – at 23:02

Ask any of our political leaders and they will tell you that this is just a Health problem. Nothing to see here HCW’s have it under control. New vaccinees coming on line every day vote for me all is ok.

In 1918 most folks had gardens even in New York City. Water was not the big an issue as we had not polluted everything in sight yet. SIP was easier in that most people did not spend a lot of time with other people as they worked on the farms. Factorys were hard hit but people could get by with out them. Everyone canned food in the summer and fall for the winter months. Today almost noone cans anything. When this happens we are in for a real mess. Starting to stock up on Charcoal and will add some dutch ovens for cooking, once my propane runs out.

Average Concerned Mom – at 23:03

People in 1918 had vey few sources of information. Newspapers, telegrams, and perhaps mail from distant family. Radio was in its infancy. What news there was was limited due to WWI and fears of hurting morale. People had no way of knowing what was going on in other parts of the country and world without newspapers reporting on it.

Today we have multiple sources of information available certainly before and probably to some extent during a pandemic. The Internet is the biggie of course. Blogs, newsfilters, official and semi-official sources. (The fluwikie!) Personal email and neighborhood listservs. Also what, a godzillion TV channels, cable, satellite. Personal phone calls and school or work related phone trees. Radio news and call in talk shows.

That’s a big difference.

Medical Maven – at 23:09

ACA at 23:03-“a big difference” and a two-edged sword.

Jumping Jack Flash – at 23:25

EOD: I’m with ya.

I’ve “heard” the flu will circle the globe in 3 to 6 weeks. That was probably the case in 1918 considering most if not all international travel was by ship. For the past 88 years we have been painting ourselves furter and further into a technological corner.

It is borderline comical - mankind has trapped itself in it’s own technology.

Orlandopreppie – at 23:26

It is always an interesting mental exercise to figure out what can go wrong and plan for it. That’s what we do here. When this goes pandemic I have no doubt that there will be some major problems, especially in the large coastal cities. However, and I can only speak about American’s here, we are from a pioneer stock. Socio-biology is something I give a lot of thought to. Many of us come from people that had the courage and fortitude to come here and build a country. They had to battle all kinds of hazards, and that made them strong. While I think those ancestors may roll over in their graves to see how “soft” we’ve become I also believe that those same characteristics get passed on just as surely as hair and eye color. Those in my own family that didn’t come here (last immigrant was 1726), and were already here, the Native American, had the same survival instinct.

I think we’ll lose many, many people. But those of us that are preparing will have gained the knowledge and skills to be part of the solution instead of part of the problem. Don’t cut yourselves short. You are amazing people, future leaders…some even current leaders. I have been so impressed with the brain power, motivation, and problem solving skill I’ve read here…you are what gives me hope. Nature will have her “spring cleaning”, she always does. It will be hard, and very sad to live through. But other generations have done it, and so can we. We are not above nature. We like to think we are…but we aren’t.

Jumping Jack Flash – at 23:43

Orlandopreppie – at 23:26 - tks - very inspirational speech.

Unfortunately, inspirational speeches won’t do much to quench the thirst of 99.99% of the population that has no water (or food)

Orlandopreppie – at 23:46

No, but I can use my speach to teach people how to collect the rainwater to quench their thirst. I live in Florida. I can only help so many. If we get defeatist now, we’re screwed.

centella – at 23:59

I think many people would survive longer than 10 days. I suppose a lot depends on where you live. Out here in California. There are plenty of swimming pools. One pool could keep everyone on the block alive for more than 10 days. On my block there are 3 homes with pools within a 200 foot radius. I just prefer to not have to beg for pool water so I have over 300 gal. of clean water. In regard to food, you loose about a pound a day when you fast. So you can fast until such time that your body does not have available fat and protein to feed on, then organs start to fail. I bet most American adults could part with 20 to 30 pounds without risk of organ failure. I fasted for 5 days once and felt fine (piece of cake). I think a lot of people who have never even gone 2 days without food would think they were starving. People wouldn’t like it but most would survive past the 10 day mark on water alone.

17 July 2006

anon-today – at 02:44

When I read this thread I think I can get some idea of why Melanie said the Reveres weren’t personally prepping in another thread. Imagine a city in the southwestern US that imports 85% of it’s water, with a mediterranean climate and so very little rain in the summer. A few suburbs may have a pool for every other house, most of the population of the city is wall to wall condos/apartments. Heating is not a problem, but if the electricity fails for long the water stops running, even if the county reservoirs are full. A few handfuls of individuals who have the personal budget and the living space to store food and water for months, and the luxury of a greenbelt about their house for rainwater tarps and a garden once the winter rains come won’t make a big difference in the larger scheme of things. The majority of individuals in the city just can’t possibly prepare for a possible scenario with little to no water service and no rain for 6 months and 90–100+ degree temperatures(hey, at least it’s a dry heat)in the heat of the summer.

When you consider such a possibility, comparing the return that may come from getting individuals to prepare, and getting the established goverment and utilities to at least have a plan for worse case scenarios, shows how much greater return you get if you can successfully get the governments and utilities prepared.

LauraBat 06:27

There was also a greater interest in helping others, pitching in, doing whatever needed to be done. Today’s society is very self-centered and selfish. Think of the HCW and volunteers who tried to work during 1918 - peoeple literally dropping like flies around them but they kept on going as best they could. How many HCW will bail if thshtf now? Or those who risked exporesure by helping to bury the dead? How many neighbors will help neighbors now? Or complete strangers? Kindness to individuals and doing for the better of the entire community is not completely absent from our society, but it sure is harder and harder to find these days.

Gary – at 10:27

Had an interesting experience this on vacation this summer. Spent a few days on Mackinaic Is. where cars are banned. It was very interesting watching my fellow Americans attempting to lumber around on foot or ride a bike for the first time in decades. We looked like a bunch of sweating, over stuffed sausages sizzling in the heat…We are not a handsome people. And certainly not in shape for even the mildest of exercise. These were largely upper middle class people who tend to be in better health and often better shape than their lower class counterparts. I think of this when I read my fellow fluwikians nervously stockpiling guns to protect themselves from “them” in the cities. Friends, its too far to walk to get you. Especially when you are sick or overweight or weak from staration or thirsty or have never been in the suburbs before or the weather is bad or you are vomiting from withdrawal etc.

EOD – at 13:01

Sounds like not just survival of the prepared but also survival of the fittest. It’s the fit and unprepared that concerns me. I too cannot imagine a “gang” of lard buckets storming my house (though such a gang storming a Wal-Mart or fast food joint does paint a comical picture). Those unprepared healthy folks who survive the pandemic, the ones currently held in check only by a civilized ordered society, they will be the desperate & emboldened ones. Far too many of us have seen the various apocalypse & Mad Max movies and some will suddenly find themselves in a position to live out their fantasies.

Posie – at 13:15

how about…and this has rarely been mentioned here…

in 1918 there were no nuclear power plants.

what do we have now in the U.S.? 104?

Posie – at 13:18

i sure hope adequate pandemic planning/preparedness exists for each of em.

Bridge Lifter – at 14:16

Gary at-10:27 did you try the famous Mackinac fudge??

Orlandopreppie – at 23:26 Good thought, attitude is everything.

Leo7 – at 14:21

Gary at 10.27 and others:>

Agree totally with your comments on personal fitness.

My great grandfather would at the age of seventy pick up his grandkids and haul them across the creek and usher them up the mountain. He walked everywhere except to church. I Listened to my mom talk about his fitness up until he died at age 96. I remember looking at my patients one day after a family reunion. Most of my patients were ages 40–60 who couldn’t walk across a field then a creek on their own, because many couldn’t even walk to the mailbox. I looked at my own fitness and over time and working shift work, I’d gotten soft and lazy. I started exercising with the goal of feeling fit and I’ve found out a lot of things. One, I can tolerate the heat much better than my same age friends, My body temp doesn’t spike when I’m in the heat, they don’t run out of my size scrubs, I can jog from the lower forty parking lot to the hospital if it rains, and not be out of breath or forced to sit down to regain my breath and heart rate. I really believe the best prep is working on personal fitness outdoors, not just in air condtioning.

When you see pictures of Americans in 1918, it was really rare to see overweight much less obesity. I’m afraid the effects on the obese will be much more than finding food. Lots won’t be able to fit on the emergency cots that will be set up in shelters for flu triage or treatment. Plus, most medication dosage is based on weight—you can expect triage for that as well. I haven’t checked but I believe the normal prepandemic dose of Tamiflu is higher for the obese. Docs might have to choose whether to try to save one or two people. And finally the hard cold truth is when it comes to a ventilator there will be discrimination because they are more prone to developing pneumonia. Plus, it requires more nursing energy expenditure for caring for the obese than the normal or overweight. As staff tires, the obese becomes a huge burden of care and I don’t like being the person to actually state this in writing, but we are kidding ourselves if we believe all patients are treated equally especially when resources dry up. If you want to be a survivor start at the basic level first which is best personal fitness you can attain by starting now, before TSHTF.

glennk – at 18:41

Maybe, I’m an optimist but I don’t think were going to see a situation out of Stephen King’s novel “The Stand” or the Bubonic plague in europe. What are the odds this flu will be different then 99.999% of pandemic flus that have swept the human population of the earth for thousands of yrs.? Is this one the BIG killer disesae of all time? I doubt it. I think I’m hearing alot of the same nonsense I heard in these kinds of sites back in 1999 about Y2k. Most of it is simply people allowing fear and their over active imaginations to carry them away. I doubt we’ll lose all our power for many reasons and if power holds as I expect it will in most areas we’ll muddle through. Not everyone is going to get sick and I believe most will people who do will survive.

Dennis in Colorado – at 20:37

glennk: I, too, doubt that the next influenza pandemic will result in the end of the world as we know it. But let us use one of the most conservative estimates extant regarding H5N1, that provided by Dr. Bob Gleeson, Medical Director for Northwestern Mutual.

“25% of the population will become ill (yes, 75% will not get sick), 30% of those who are sick will seek medical attention, 10% of those will be hospitalized and 25% of those will die.

“In a town of 1,000,000 people then: 250,000 will become ill, 75,000 will seek medical attention, 7,500 will go the hospital, and 1,875 will die.”

Extrapolating Dr. Gleeson’s estimate to the world population:

4,974,000,000 will become ill, 1,492,000,000 will seek medical attention, 149,000,000 will go to the hospital, and 37,000,000 will die.

Will this mean the end of the world as we know it? Probably not. Is it sufficiently “frightening” to cause intelligent people to prepare for it? Definitely so.

glennk – at 21:42

I agree and I’m doing just that. What I’m not doing is indulging myself with Bibical fantasies like some of the people who come here. Human beings and human societies can be amazingly resilent and resourceful under stress. This event is predictable which makes it somewhat manageable, unlike a tsunami or an earthquake. Disease is scary though because it’s a kind of Russian roulette siuation like war. Nevertheless, think of all the dangerous situations and diseases out here already. This is no different it’s something to use due diligence about. I’m happy to see that some Gov’ts and Int’l orgs. are doing some planning and prep. Anyway, I prefer optimism to doom and gloom over this.

  Oh, and your math is way off.  25% of the world pop. of 6.5 billion is 1.565 billion will get sick 469 million will seek medical care. 47 million will be hospitalized and 12 million will die. I think your low on the death rate. It’s more like 25% of the ones that get ill will die. That’s  more like 412 million will die at a 25% CFR. I doubt the CFR will be 25% though. If it is it would mean this will be the mother of all plagues.
Dennis in Colorado – at 22:19

I apologize for any mathematical errors. One of the hazards of trying to copy from a “world clock” that is constantly changing. Nevertheless, the basic point remains: even with Dr. Gleeson’s very conservative numbers, the potential for significant disruption of society and its infrastructure remains high. We all have an opinion of just how much disruption will occur. If it pleases you to criticize those who hold a different opinion regarding how much disruption will occur, that is your privilege. I’ve examined the issues for myself over the last year, and have formed my own opinions. The fact that others believe that more (or less) disruption will occur than I do does not surprise me or concern me.

glennk – at 23:07

“If it pleases you to criticize those who hold a different opinion regarding how much disruption will occur, that is your privilege.” Pleases me?

Jefiner – at 23:46

glennk – at 21:42 I agree and I’m doing just that. What I’m not doing is indulging myself with Bibical fantasies like some of the people who come here.

Well, then. I would beg to differ—I (and I suspect many of the people who come here to visit) seek to gain power through knowledge by reading the forum and the wiki. Please chuck the slams at religion please, and I will forego my world famous dissection of the secular humanist.

—rant off—

20 July 2006

noni – at 06:48

glennK

once again people are reacting to your jugdemental feeling choice of words. Please watch yourself. “‘indulging…in bibical fantasies like some people who come here”!?? “fear…Nonsense’

look, you insult people often on the wiki, glenn. Cut it out!

LMWatBullRunat 15:55

There is a huge difference between what I think is going to happen, what is likely to happen, and what could happen. It’s important to differentiate between these.

Here is my take on this-

A pandemic is GOING to happen.

I think it is likely to be serious, somewhere between 1958 and 1918–19

It is possible that it could be severe, which I define as significantly worse than 1918–1919, or CIR of 33% or greater, CFR of 10% or greater.

It could be as bad as 50% CIR per wave with 75% CFR; there have been flu pandemics which approach 50% infection, and H5N1 is presently demonstrating a 75% CFR. (When combined with our debt load, this would probably cause an economic crash and be the end of the US at least.)

Given this, I have decided to prepare for the worst possible case as best I can. “prepare for the worst, hope for the best.” Others may decide otherwise; that is the great thing about a free country. I welcome any challenge to my evaluation of the worst possible case that is more than “Well, it just can’t be that bad.” I certainly hope that it is not that bad, but I am not betting my life and the survival of my genome on it. I don’t like gambles like that.

Dennis in Colorado – at 16:05

LMWatBullRun – at 15:55 I think it is likely to be serious, somewhere between 1958 and 1918–19.

Do you have any numbers on infection rate, hospitalization rate, and death rate for 1957–58? I’ve seen death numbers of 1 million to 4 million (gosh, that’s a wide range, couldn’t we estimate cause of death any better than that in 1958?), but I’ve not seen estimates on now many people were infected or how many were hospitalized. I think the US population was ~170 million at that time but don’t know about total world population.

Irene – at 16:27

All the sites I’ve visited indicate that about 70,000 died in the U.S. due to the 1957–58 Asian Flu. This site for example:

pandemicflu.gov

Dan – at 19:17

“Human beings and human societies can be amazingly resilent and resourceful under stress.”

I agree with this statement but I don’t know that we’ll find that kind of resilience in the current global economy. The global interdependence and “just-in-time” inventory systems are new developments that did not exist in 1968, let alone 1918.

Our modern urban landscapes have become rapidly larger and ever more dependent on the rapid and unencumbered transfer of goods and materials (food!), electric power, technology and so on. The healthcare system has no surge capacity and too many other infrastructure items are in the same fragile boat. Comparisons to past pandemics generally fail to take into account these kinds of differences in base conditions.

What will be the long term effects from anything but the mildest pandemic? The plauge was not the end of the world but it sure was a turning point in history.

anon_22 – at 19:24

Dan,

You’ve touched upon the most important issue of pandemic prep over and beyond direct mortality, the resilience and sustainability of societies. Our modern efficiency is going to be also our greatest weakness. People and whole communities will have to re-learn many basic skills. Sure, I have confidence that eventually we will pull through, but we shouldn’t underestimate the severe shock that will accompany such adjustments, even if successful.

It’s what keeps me awake nights.

Dan – at 19:37

Anon_22,

Exactly. It’s what keeps me awake nights too. Assuming we survive, how do I best prepare my children (all our children) to survive and thrive in that post-pandemic economy? Can we build a better model for global survival and advancement? It should be painfully obvious that the model we now have is not sustainable.

LMWatBullRunat 19:51

I’d start with Heinlein’s recommendations for what a human being should be able to do. If I am able to cope with a post-pandemic environment, it’ll be largely because of RAH.

for those who do not know what I am talking about, I commend to your attention “Time enough for Love”. There is an amazing amount of good information on survival although his ideas on economics are decidedly not in accordance with the Austrian school

EOD – at 20:01

Another huge change that has take place in recent decades that will greatly affect a transition is found in agriculture. Most all food crops these days are grown from hybrid seeds. Even those people who grow their own gardens use them, they can’t just collect seeds from this year’s crops and use them to replant next year because they will not reproduce. Anyone planning on a future of growing their own food better be laying in a supply of heirloom seeds. In fact, if society does degrade to such a point I would imagine that seeds would become a rather valuable commodity.

LMWatBullRunat 20:21

Trade goods I recommend to folks who ask (and those on the Wiki, who haven’t…<grin>)

In no particular order-

Fish hooks and line, especially braided dacron, which for some reason is getting hard to find;

Ammunition, especially .22 LR rimfire ammo.

Heirloom seeds, especially corn and other grains;

Silver coinage (pre 1964 silver)

rechargeable batteries and a solar charger;

Motorola talkabout radios, in pairs;

Sewing needles and heavy thread;

Used serviceable sturdy shoes;

Nails;

Salt and other spices;

Aspirin and acetamenophen and other OTC medications;

small cheap solar radios;

Annealed steel wire in 3.5 pound rolls (tie wire)

6 mil poly plastic.

Hand tools ( you can usually find good name brand tools at most moving sales)

Skills and knowledge will be valuable too.

glennk – at 20:49

Anon_22 do you really think this virus is going to maintain it’s present CFR when it makes the leap to easy human to human transmission? Wouldn’t that fly in the face of most of what we now know about what usually occurs with these types of viruses? If it does of course all bets are off on how disruptive it will be over the span of 18 mos. The world will be a vastly different and I’m afraid rather sullen place afterwards if it does. In fact it would amount to the most deadly single event in human history. The human race would however still survive given we have 6.5 Billion people now.

Tom DVM – at 20:58

glennk. I look forward to anon 22′s answer.

I would probably be considered a ‘fear mongerer’ or ‘pessimist’ when it comes to H5N1. However, I am absolutely sure that it will not maintain its present CFR exactly for the reasons you cited.

I believe at worst, the CFR would be ten percent or result in the deaths of ten million US citizens. The problem is that even at ten percent, the losses would be absolutely devestating and disastrous.

I believe the ten percent is the outlier to measure from in respect to H5N1.

LMWatBullRunat 21:06

Sez I- “It could be as bad as 50% CIR per wave with 75% CFR; there have been flu pandemics which approach 50% infection, and H5N1 is presently demonstrating a 75% CFR.”

I welcome supported dissent to this view, but so far all I have seen is in essence ‘it couldn’t be that bad’. If it couldn’t be that bad, why is the current CFR 75% in Indonesia?

Reassortment and recombination happen; why can’t H5N1 acquire the infectiousness of the current H3N2 strain while still retaining it’s deadliness?

 Now, I am not saying that it WILL be that bad, just that I think it is reasonable to estimate that it COULD be that bad.

how say you, TomDVM?

Tom DVM – at 21:16

LMWatBullRun. I’m with you on this but my mind will not comprehend or even accept the possibility of your comments which are reasonable given the field experience with this virus.

I think it is important to remember that all experts six months ago were predicting two things: widespread asymptomatic infections (the useless vietnam survey quoted ad nauseum) and a preciptous fall in virulence as time went on…

…needless to say, I have never in my almost twenty-five years since graduation, seen a case where experts have been so consistently wrong for so consistently long a time-period (nine years).

LMW, I think we have to learn from history on this one…although again it may be difficult given the field observations…

…If we have assume we understand the history correctly which may also be wrong, virulence decreases in exchange for transmissibility. If H5N1 was to fall in the 50–75% category it would be the worst pathogen on record…and I for one have always believed that ‘records are meant to be broken’…

…If I keep at this post long enough I will be making the opposite argument./:0)

glennk – at 21:22

Run all I’m saying is it flies in the face of almost everything we know about this disease over the long haul of history. If a flu of such virulance had occurred any time in the past I think we’d have heard about it in history somewhere. Again, I’m not saying it isn’t possible I’m just saying I don’t think the historical record supports such a level of virulance. Tom, your absolutely right such a death rate would be devastating to the US especially given the great majority of those likely to die would be the 20–40 age group. It would have the effect of several major Wars even worse since it would kill off large numbers of young women in their prime child bearing yrs. as well. I shudder to even think of th consequences of such a calamity. Only the Bubonic plague come to mind and we all know how that effected Europe for a generation.

Tom DVM – at 21:23

Sorry, there was one thing I wanted to bring up before I completely lost my train of thought in the post above…

…and that is that the experts are giving the impression that 70 % of the population is going to magically avoid this completely novel virus when it becomes a pandemic…

…this is once again wrong. By definition, there will be no one with immunity or previous exposure to this virus…therefore, at some point, every person on the face of the earth, will be infected with this virus…whether it is during the pandemic or afterwards.

I understand that in the nineteen-twenties there were repeated waves of epidemics as a result of H1N1 with comparable mortality rates.

Anon_451 – at 21:25

While we all set and talk about 1918 and the skills that have been lost, I started to remember what like was like in 1957–1959. Many of us here can remember those days.

My family was living in Kanasa City at the time. We would go to the farmers market almost every weekend in the summer and fall. We almost never bought freash produce from the A&P. Mom would can some goods and she would watch for the sales on 10 cans for a dollar or special sales 2 dollars a case (24 cans to a case). We had a mannual wringer washer until 1959 when she got the power wringer washer. Clothes were hung on a clothes line. We had a gas stove which you had to use a match to light (to include the over) No AC fans only. We had a freezer so dad would buy a 1/4 beef at a time. While we had a car, we walked or used the bus/trolly most of the time. My grandparents who lived about 30 miles north of the city still had an outhouse and my grandmother was still using a wooden stove. We heated with coal and that was part of my job to shovel the coal into the fire box when I got home from school and before we went to bed. Mom had both an electric sewing machine and a treadel type sewer. She made most of the clothes for my sister and I. We had a TV but I did not come on until 4 PM with the Howdy Doddy (sp) show and went off at 10 PM on weekdays and MidNight on the weekends. Now that I think back on that time, the US was able to with stand the mild Pan Flu because we were not as dependent on the “system” as we are today.

Tom DVM – at 21:27

glennk. I agree. I think our friendly historian in New Zealand, Clarke, could add alot to this conversation…but I believe smallpox also had a high mortality rate…and I do think Clarke had other examples of high mortality rates with probable influenza’s as well.

Thank you for clearly and concisely reminding us about the age group…I had completely forgotten about this added and imminent problem.

glennk – at 21:27

Where is the data about the 20′s epidemics your speaking of? I’m a student of US history and I don’t remember ever hearing about such waves of epidemics.

Tom DVM – at 21:30

Anon 451 Thanks.

Tom DVM – at 21:34

glennk. I’m sorry. I have read so many sources, I no longer know which sources are which (I’m not the best at this type of record keeping). I’m sure someone else would have read the same material and may be able to direct you to it.

I think DemFromCt may be away but as soon as you see him, just jump in and ask him for a source.

I’m sure of what I read however…that there were aftershocks or waves of epidemics that continued for a long-time after the pandemic and H1N1 was the primary influence until the pandemic in the 1950′s.

It should also be noted that there was no known Swine Influenza before H1N1 in 1918…in effect, a pandemic in reverse for pigs…influenza in pig populations has been entrenched ever since H1N1.

glennk – at 21:35

Tom God forbid smallpox got loose again hardly anyone has any immunity to it anymore. Even those of us that got vaccinated way back wouldn’t have much if any anymore.

Tom DVM – at 21:38

glennk yep. I just hope we don’t have to deal with waves of pandemic viruses as there are a number causing problems at the moment H7, H9 and the H3 in dogs.

The near future looks a little grim but I do believe that if we get away from the over emphasis on vaccines and anti-virals, we can get around them by other means.

Anon_451 – at 21:47

Glennk: I know you do not want to hear this, and please understand that I think fastest then I type (hence the errors), but even a very mild Pan Flu, Like 58 will be very disruptive on todays life. We do not have the surge ability in the Hosiptals that we had in 58. Back then doctors were still making house calls which kept a lot of people out of the hospitals. Most people were still fending for themselves very well. We had a large (at least 4 rows of corn) garden in our back yard and we lived in the City. What enable the peoples before US to weather such a storm was the fact that they were, for the most part, self sufficent. That is not true in the West. In third world countries, It may in fact not be as bad. But we in the West are so interdependent on each other that we flat will not know what to do if the water goes off for a short period of time or the lights go down for 24 hors. Just look at all the times that has happened in the past 5 years and the panic that it has caused.

NauticalManat 22:09

glennk

While I would have to read that section of John Barry’s book over again, I believe that the 1918 Flu did continue to infect and kill for the next few years although the CFR dropped precipitously over that period and in fact that virus is still with us today, but probably not able to kill many if any at all. Maybe someone more familiar with this could comment.

jane – at 22:10

It seems to me that today many people spend our time on amusements and gadgets that we have purchased. In the past people used more of their time fixing broken or torn possessions or making something that they needed. From gardening to carpentry, didn’t most people do a lot of work that they didn’t get paid for? My dad taught himself from books when he wanted to make a rental apartment in part of the house they had just bought. He put in a bathroom and a kitchen by himself after doing the research. On the other hand, Home Depot and Lowe’s have spread all over for a reason-maybe I shouldn’t be so negative about the skill level of us Americans.

21 July 2006

LMWatBullRunat 13:15

GlennK-

If a pandemic with 50% IR and 75% CFR had happened in the past, I think history would have stopped at that point; civilization as it was then would have stopped. We would not know about it because everyone would be scrambling to survive, not worried about writing things down.

To Jane and others-

As regards present day capabilities, what percentage of your circle of acquaintance, if dropped into the middle of the nearest national forest with what they carry to work with them, could survive for three days? How many would be able to find their way home? based on my informal surveys 90% of the people living in cities do not even carry a pocketknife with them.

My father, who had a PHd, graduated from high school in 1932. His high school machine shop class built an internal combustion engine from scratch, including castings and forgings, machining fasteners, winding the magneto and making the spark plug. I can think of only one other person I know besides me who could do that, and he’s part of my survival group. <grin>

Home many people can explain how the power grid works? How sewers work? Water systems? In 1918 almost everyone understood the basic science and engineering required for operation of the civilization, which was pretty basic. Today?

In 2006, < half of the graduating high school students cannot explain what an electron is or how Compton determined the mass thereof. I’d bet that fewer than one in a thousand adults can explain the technology of 1918, and less than one in a hundred can explain even in high level how our society functions and what’s required to maintain our existence. Everyone focuses on their specialty.

We have moved from being a nation of generalists to a nation of extreme specialization. That has it’s advantages, but if you lose those few critical services workers, you are in trouble. Civilization today is FRAGILE.

Jumping Jack Flash – at 17:27

If I were an observer of the human race, rather than a participant of the human race, I would be utterly amazed at the predicament we humans have gotten ourselves into.

We are intelligent enough to tame and harness rivers, split atoms, build modern cities, etc, etc… Yet in “conquering” nature with all of our engineering feats we have actually “out smarted” ourselves.

I believe our modern day society is postioned worse now than any time in history to cope with a disaster such as bird flu.

LMWatBullRunat 18:03

JJF- your observation spawns an interesting philosophical question- Is it possible to develop our current high-tech society without abandoning the generalists? Is acute overspecialization a necessary prerequisite to a high-tech culture such as ours?

I think the answer is no, but I am the next thing to Heinlein’s encyclopedic synthesist. Just don’t have eidetic memory and am not quite smart enough.

3L120 – at 18:13

We hope for the best and prepare for the worst. I have no idea who coined the phrase, bit it sure seems appropriate. To say it is fearmongering to worry is to slander those who are preparing. While there may never be a pandemic, to not prepare commensurate with your ability is nigh onto criminal.

I am sure that if those around in 1918 had the knowledge we do today about epidemics, they would have prepared more than they did. Today’s world may have lost some skills along the way since 1918 but we have much more information to work with. We know how masks work, we know that isolation is important, while we don’t have canning skills, we can buy canned foods. No wood stoves but we can build or buy a solar cooker. No wells in many areas but we can buy containers to hold all the water we need. So, IMO, we can come out of this better than 1918 did from a 1918-level pandemic; if we are willing to prepare. Those that don’t and nay-say those that do, well their story may have a different ending.

glennk – at 18:33

The Mayan civilization was destroyed by a yrs. long drought and we now know that it ended in anarchy with the masses desperate for water killing off the rulers and priests. In the end the survivors abandoned the cities and the jungle re-claimed then in a few decades. The Maya today still live in villages in grass huts and small towns. Ironically, with Int’l aid they are slowly re-building some of their magnificent cities as tourist attractions. Maybe someday we’ll be doing the same?

Dan – at 19:08

As pointed out here, our modern civilization is fragile, and is so largely because of our over-dependence on modern technologies (fueled by cheap oil energy). It seems our wisdom has not grown as fast as our technological intelligence.

It’s clear that our healthcare systems have no surge capacity, but I believe that applies to so many areas of our infrastructure as well, and for the same reasons. If those systems (power, transportation, security, etc.) begin to fail it will be much more than an inconvenience. The population densities of our urban and suburban areas cannot long exist without them.

Sadly, the pandemic may partly solve that problem for us “the hard way” by significantly reducing population densities.

Governement and businesses expect to pick up where they left off after the pandemic. I hope we don’t. I hope we will see the folly and vulnerability we have created and choose to build a more sustainable society and civilization. I’m not talking utopia here, just some governmental and legislative backing for more sustainable practices.

So there’s our homework assignment while SIPping. Pandemic, or even the threat of pandemic can be a teachable “moment” where we can call into question the weaknesses of our system. We can do better - let’s figure out how and demand a better way.

Medical Maven – at 19:34

Dan at 19:08: Just so “the better way” doesn’t fundamentally deny people the right to property. The philosopher John Locke properly calculated that the right to own property and to do with it what you will (within parameters) is the bedrock for all of the other fundamental human rights. Throw that principle overboard, and you will end up with a stagnant Hell that denies the human spirit and human nature.

If that is what you propose, the cure will be worse than the disease and ultimately doomed to failure anyway.

Dennis in Colorado – at 20:00

glennk – at 18:33 The Mayan civilization was destroyed by a yrs. long drought and we now know that it ended in anarchy with the masses desperate for water killing off the rulers and priests.

Note that drought is not universally accepted as the cause for the decline of the ancient Mayan civilization. Per Wikipedia:

“For reasons which are still much debated, in the 8th and 9th centuries AD (the “Terminal Classic” period) Maya culture went into decline, with most of the cities of the central lowlands abandoned. Detailed monumental inscriptions all but disappeared. Warfare, ecological depletion of croplands, and drought or some combination of those factors are usually suggested as reasons for the decline … However, there is no single cause universally accepted for their decline.”

Dan – at 23:37

Medical Maven: I like my private property too. I’m talking about liveing more sustainably and more locally.

22 July 2006

Jumping Jack Flash – at 07:23

I’ve often contemplated how previous civilazations (Romans, Mayans, Atlantis?, etc.) could possibly have advanced to a certain level, and then just collapse. I never understood, until now, why these civilaztions did not keep advancing rather than fold.

IMHO, our 2006 technology reliant society has mankind poised to fall harder, faster, and further than any time in recorded history.

This wiki forum has changed my thinking from how much wheat, water, and ammo I’ll need for 18 months to how many fishing lures and garden seeds I’ll need for the rest of my life.

glennk – at 08:48

Dennis: That’s true there is some dispute over the drought hypothesis but it is considered a strong candidate. One of the reasons is because of data mined from the Ice Cores in Greenland which show atmospheric changes that indicate would concur with this scenario. Another reason is that the Mayan area of central America is one of the few places on earth without any large rivers or streams and a very limited ability to store water. Even minor droughts were a problem for the Maya.

Medical Maven – at 09:01

glennk is correct. Scientific American in 2005 had an article presenting the latest (very detailed study data) supporting the idea that several, successive decades-long droughts were the primary factors causing the downfall of the Mayan civilization.

Gary – at 10:37

JJF’s comment on how fluwiki has changed his perspective inspires me to reveal my transformation. I started out thinking that a STRICT SIP was the only way to get thru this. Then the learned skepticism of medical people about anyone really avoiding contact with this virus no matter how hard you try led me to abandon that notion. Several times I read Melanie’s comments to the effect that she was storing extra preps for those around her and her frequent comments that the only way we will get thru this is together, relying on each others’ strengths and caring for your neighbor’s weaknesses. Now I’ve decided to get to know the neighbors, find out who has a fireplace or a woodstove, who has a non-rotted woodpile, who has kids, who is old, and who is healthy. Who plans ahead and who is prodigal. I mention flu, if the occasion presents itself, but I get about the same reactions I suspect you all are getting. So, I’m stockpiling perhaps double the amount of wood I’ll need for a winter in these hills. I’m planning “care packages” and the bags to carry them. I hope to have solar panels up and running shortly, so I plan to run an extension cord to my neighbor, who I don’t expect to plan ahead. I also think that with more or less reliable power, our house might become a hospital of sorts. I’m over 60, but reasonably healthy for a gezzer, having lost 60 highly undesirable pounds in recent years, so I’ll be at a lower probability of catching this flu. That places me in a likely caretaker role. Going it alone, as Ben Franklin reminded the rebellious colonies, is to die alone. United we stand, yes, but divided we fall.

Gary Near Death Valley – at 15:14

Actually out here near Death Valley (not in Death Valley but fairly close, and with a large valley here with thousands of people), SIP will work fine in our situation. My wife and I have planned well ahead, and did make care packages of 5 lb bean packages etc, but there are neighbors that also have planned ahead and have stored well. Of course it does help to have a 6 foot chain link fence around the property and the neighbors have that also, although I am the only one that has a gard of any size. We could SIP for at least two years plus, although the diet may be become rather mundane.

I for one now go out to a local small casino for breakfast every morning, and that will be the most difficult for me, not going to breakfast and conversing with others about the events going on in the world. Yes we are the ones, age 60 sitting around the small tables making everything GOOD in the world with the snap of our fingers.

But if there were family or friend “refugees” that show up at the door, we have planned for that also just in case. Have a seperate building now used as a craft and art building, that could be used as an emergency spare room, that someone could use, in isolation till at least 14 days pass, to make sure that they did not bring the flu inside the “compound”. Having been in the emergency field my whole career, now retired, and able to plan and afford better prep, that is what we have done. We maybe SIP but can and will allow family and friends needed to come in also. Some live here close and they won’t but those that live several hundred miles away might. In either case, we still plan for that.

SIMON – at 15:16

1918,as explained by my grandfather,no school,no funerals,tea towels hung from the front doors,hence who has sick people,it came twice,Father shot and killed deer all summer,my grandfather everyday delivered deer steak and potatoes wrapped in newspaper from his wagon with a scarf on his face, on the doorsteps he would leave the meals,it took many.everything stopped,Rural Nova Scotia Canada

prepmaniac – at 21:12

Gary at 10:37

I agree with you. I know a woman who was 11 years old during the 1918 flu. Her parents helped everyone that they could. They were fortunate enough to not get sick. Her mother did, but she recovered. They built coffins and buried their neighbors, made meals for others who were sick and took in two orphans. Another lady I know was telling me about how her aunt used to tlk about the 1918 pandemic a lot. No one in her family got sick, but a lot of people on her street did. Her family would prepare a lot of food everyday and her aunt would take it to those that were sick. Others on the street would help with the care of the children of those that were sick. I am sure that a lot of lives were saved that would have been lost with just a little bit of help. I plan to sip and try to avoid the virus, but I am going to keep gathering beyond what I need for my own family so that I can share through the food shortages.

LMWatBullRunat 21:30

I applaud the generosity stated here. another difference between 1918 and now is that today such behaviour is the exception. Sad but true.

Dennis in Colorado – at 21:32

OK, here’s a project for us:

Office Depot (just as an example) has corrugated cardboard “storage boxes” that are approximately 10″ x 12″ x 16″. That’s 1920 cubic inches. They have a lift-off lid and built-in handles (link here.

If you wanted to share preps with a neighbor or family member, or if you wanted to have something available to give to someone in need during a crisis (motivation is not the issue here; practical packing is) … what would you put in the box?

Some beans & rice & canned stew &/or soup? All canned goods so they can be eaten cold? A backpacking stove and canister of fuel? A water filter and water jug? A flashlight? Some strike-anywhere matches? What are people LEAST likely to have that they will need? I know we can’t prepare a box that will fit everyone’s total needs, but maybe there are one or two “standards” we can develop for use by those who choose to help others.

Medical Maven – at 22:41

Dennis in Colorado at 21:32: Good idea, past threads have come up with various items. I would add one more for yourself, a ninja outfit to wear (mask included) when you present (or surreptitiously drop off) this gift. You don’t want to be known as the “corner grocer” or pharmacy.

Even if things are “under control” when you embark on this project things may turn for the worse later.

Giving (anonymously) is truly more blessed than receiving (unwanted attention) in this situation.

Dennis in Colorado – at 22:58

Thanks, MM. Do you recall the name of the thread(s) in which the previous lists were discussed?

23 July 2006

Grace RN – at 21:58

I bought a book along time ago that’s included with my bug-out stuff: Reader’s Digest “Back to Basics-How to learn and enjoy Traditional American Skills”.

There are other books on this topic-coupled with enough supplies and basic tools, I suppose it could help someone with less-than Amish do-it-yourself knowledge….

23 August 2006

lady biker – at 19:48

you know, my mom died about five years ago, and before she died she told us kids, I wish I could live now, because of what’s comin for you all, my knowledge would be life saving. of course she raised us thinking like her, to grow gardens, to can food, and I’m still puttin up as they call it, I bake bread like my grandmother and sometimes I think I’m a misplaced person who should have lived in the 1800′s and mom taught us to quilt which i do all the time. But the problem is how many people in this day and age have been taught like us older ones. My stepson told me one time, mom I want to marry a girl that cooks and sews like you do. I looked him in the eye and said good luck son cause your gonna need it. I’m sorry to say I was right. There is a lot of things that we’ve gotten away from that we will have to maybe relearn to survive but I hope we can teach the young ones again. I pray for us all.

AnnieBat 20:55

Hip hip hurrah lady biker. And another appalling thing is the inability of some (many?) people to ‘entertain’ themselves without tv, computer games, or internet.

I raised all my children (five) to cook, sew and knit. By cooking I mean from basic fresh ingredients - fortunately in NZ fresh basics are still mostly cheaper than packaged foods. They all grow vegetable gardens and do their own house and section maintenance. They all love to go fishing and do so regularly. I do not ‘worry’ for their self-sufficiency.

I think one of the big changes is the loss of general community (neighbourly) support that was prevalent until 20–30 years ago. Some places still have it but, the bigger the cities get, the less the inherent neighbourhood support seems to be.

24 August 2006

bumping for bill and monotreme – at 10:45

26 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:50

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Page last modified on October 26, 2006, at 08:50 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / New Anti Bird Flu Wipes

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: New Anti Bird Flu Wipes

20 June 2006

WorriedInTheUKat 05:35

Hey,

I just read about a new product called Clinell wipes on a website http://www.orderhealthcare.com/ . Apperently its proven to kill the bird flu virus. What do people think? Is this all a hype? Apparently it was invented by two doctors who run a company GAMA Healthcare http://www.gamahealthcare.com/ . Also talk about two new products a hand sanitiser and a spray all proven to kill the bird flu virus http://www.gamahealthcare.com/clinell.html

They say

‘John Oxford, Professor of Virology at Queen Mary’s School of Medicine has said “Unfortunately, personal cleanliness and hygiene levels have dropped steadily over the last decades with many microbes, as never before, using the opportunity to spread. First and foremost to reduce virus transmission attention must be paid to hand washing and then when this is satisfactory, focus on cleansing surfaces and equipment shared by others such as desks, tables, telephones and door knobs.”

Clinell wipes, which were developed by two medical doctors, are a hand safe sanitising wet wipe that can be used to clean hands and surfaces. Having been proven to kill the avian influenza virus (H5N1) Clinell Wipes would be a simple yet effective method to reduce the transmission of colds and flu, including the bird flu virus.’

What are your views?

anonymous – at 05:40

could you find, what the ingredients are ? They are somehow hiding this… Also, do they believe bird flu is caused by bacteria ? I always read about antibacterial wipes.

anonymous – at 05:45

OK, I found it contains 5% alcohol and kills 99.9…% of bacteria. Nothing about viruses. Is it better than just ethanol or propanol or bleach or heat ? How long does it take to safely kill H5N1 ?

Spam Alert from NS1 – at 06:02

Looks like this is being posted on multiple threads and is an advertisement?

lauraB – at 06:32

I don’t know how effective 5% alcohol wold be. I know the liquid sanitizers need to be at least 60% alcohol but it’s a liquid based product. Sounds fishy unless there are some other magic ingredients. Most testing sites for consumer products would not have access to H5N1 to test it definitively anyway. Clorox makes wipes (bleach) that might be a better bet.

Spam Alert from NS1 – at 06:37

I want to know if it kills human flu . . . who cares about bird flu.

Spam should be removed.

urdar-Norge – at 07:00

60–70% no more no less.. all alchohol based has to be that strong to be effective..

anonymous – at 07:12

you can get 94% ethanol, 1l for 1.5Euro here, but it stinks. The same non-stinking cost 2Euro

wanderer – at 08:27

If it’s only 5% alcohol it’s probably no good.

The minimum standards my group has to use for deactivating HPAI are 1% Virkon solution (1 kg per 100 L of water), 0.8% Profilm solution (800 mL per 100L of water), 3% household bleach solution (equal parts bleach and water), and 0.5% virocid solution (1L per 200L of water). All of these require a contact time of at least 10 min.

Virkon is good - I worked in a BSL3 lab and we used it for cleaning everything. I used to have purple hair back then and whenever I got Virkon on me (quite frequently) it would bleach the purple parts of my hair white. Powerful stuff.

30 June 2006

DaveBat 17:50

I email them to ask. 1st they said quite rudely that all the testing is on their website and it has been proven to kill the actual H5N1 strain. They said the 5% alcohol is a non-active ingreditent and is just there to make it dry quicker. Apparently these are the ingredients:

Powerful patent pending biocidal formulation, containing 9 ingredients, based on two cationic surfactants; a synergistic mix of quaternary ammonium compounds and a polymeric biguanide, each with a completely different mechanism of action. This ensures the widest spectrum of activity whilst mediating against resistance.

These primary agents are reinforced by a combination of secondary slower acting biocides which add specific properties including head space protection and enhanced activity against fungi and mycobacteria as well as improved residual activity.

Whatever the hell that means!!

lauraB – at 17:53

Boy - I used to work in marketing and wrote some pretty stinky press releases, but nothing that smelled that bad!

Tom DVM – at 17:57

influenza viruses are quite labile. Any soap or any disenfectant will kill them.

DaveBat 17:57

I was just looking through there testing on the site, all looks pretty impressive and official. Certainly way more testing that any other product i have seen.

DaveBat 17:58

I think your right Tom. But i thought Norovirus was hard to kill and their testing section shows it kills norovirus. Must be some good formula!

anon – at 17:59

Can you buy these wipes in the us?

Tom DVM – at 17:59

Where you need the fancy disenfectants is for the more environmentally resistant bacteria.

DaveBat 18:02

Well i am all for a properly tested product Tom, especially one which kills the resistant bacteria! All i see in the shops these days are products which just claim to kill bugs, but you go on the website and you cant find the testing results anywhere!

DaveBat 18:02

Check out the websites about anon, but i was looking and doesnt look like they have any fda testing, all european!

janetn – at 19:48

60% alcohol [hand sanatizer] will work just as good as any fancy product. So will bleach. Save your money.

lauraB – at 19:57

Clorox makes wipes as well that kill 99.9999% of germs. Clorox is also much cheaper than these - 2lb.54 ($4.00 US) for 40 wipes! - and are often sold in bulk at Costco, etc. As much as I don’t like corporate America, a company as large as Clorox typically will not make claims without evidence for fear of 1) gov’t intervention 2) lawsuits. I also agree with Janetn - soap, bleach and Purell work just as well.

sarah – at 20:07

I have just read all the comments above and I would like to respond to all of them at once. I am a nurse at The Royal Marsden Hospital in London and we use Clinell wipes. They are without doubt the best wipes we have ever had. They are now being used in many hospitals around the country.

Yes you need over 40% alcohol to kill microorganisms but they say the alcohol is only to help evaporation post wiping so 5% is sufficient. The killing power of the wipes is due to 6 biocides present in the formula. These biocides combine to make Clinell wipes detergent and disinfectant wipes combined as well as hand and surface wipes combined. Both these combinations are new ideas in wet wipe technology and as such should be applauded.

The formula was designed by 2 doctors who we have met when we first began to use the wipes. They have spent many years developing the product and have tested it rigourously. In fact Clinell has been tested more extensively than any other wipe previously.

It kills bacteria, viruses, fungi, as well as having tests for the lethal strain of bird flu, dermatology testing, hepatitis testing, hand data, surface data etc…

you can see all their lab data on their website.

instead of congratulating them on a wonderful product all you can do is criticise. Please learn your facts before talking

DemFromCTat 20:18

sarah –

This website does not exist to promote commercial products. Got any peer reviewed studies you can cite?

Bronco Bill – at 20:28

Same product, posted on the same day, June 20, 2006, on three different threads, all with pretty much the same opening paragraph. at 05:33 and at 05:30

SPAM alert?

Melanie – at 20:33

pogge,

Check the IPs. Blocking may be necessary.

birdwatcher – at 20:37

Spam alert …its on other forum sites other than this one as well. Sounds like a sales pitch to me.

02 July 2006

becky – at 17:54

Both WorriednUK and Shindul’s converstations are listed, verbatim, in other forums. Looks like they just visit forums together and paste the posts in. I’m sticking with my Clorox wipes!

06 July 2006

Cadillac Dave – at 12:04

Becky arent clorox wipes damaging to hands?

Bronco Bill – at 12:07

That’s what gloves are for… ;-)

24 August 2006

anonymous – at 10:29

The site www.orderhealthcare.com doesnt even work! Sounds like spam to me.

Tom DVM – at 10:35

Soap and water make an excellent bird flu wipe…this virus is labile which means it is sensitive to all soaps and disenfectants…beware the snake oil salesman…there are going to be a lot of them.

26 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 20:49

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Page last modified on October 26, 2006, at 08:49 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Arkansas Bird Flu Preppies

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Arkansas Bird Flu Preppies

26 October 2006

Mountain Man – at 16:43

Am looking to converse with my fellow Arkies on preparing for the pandemic which we all hope will not come.

 So—any like minded folks out there???
PBQ – at 17:26

Hello Mountain Man, There is a whole thread for Arkies on this site! Come and join us. In the search window just type in Arkansas. There are many of us from all over the state.

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Page last modified on October 26, 2006, at 05:26 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Jericho TV Show-comments

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Jericho TV Show-comments

21 September 2006

NEMO – at 10:29

I think some of us would like to discuss the prepping aspects of the show Jericho to compare Hollywoods version of a dire emergency compared to how we have disscussed being prepared for a dire emergency (specifically pandemic) here on the wiki. However, there are a lot of folks who don’t want to be bogged down with comments on a TV show on the prep thred, so I’m starting a new thread and copying over the links from here that pertain to it.

NEMO – at 10:31

lohrewok – at 20:15 Nemo @ 19:29 It was partially filmed here in my town, Lawrence Ks. The crew was here about a month ago doing publicity stuff…whoa Nelly! That mushroom cloud is freaky! We’re about 20 mins. from KC.

Jane – at 21:19 On the tv show Jericho, the nuclear blast seen in Kansas was in Denver, then they found out that Atlanta was hit too. Wonder who the calm and resourceful newcomer is? He said he had been a policeman in St. Louis.

The arguments and fighting at the gas station seemed all too plausible.

Why did they have to put in a busload of escaped convicts? This is scary enough.

NEMO – at 10:44

For those that are wondering, this show is on CBS- Wednesdays- 8:00.

Several of the things I noticed that were dumb: AFTER the power went out to the whole town, they showed a whole crowd of people pumping gas at the gas station and having fights. Duh!!! No power…no pumpy gas!! That’s one of the reasons why you need to have access to some extra gas if you plan on leaving town or have a generator you want to run. A stand alone tank that is gravity fed is best for those in the country, 5 gallon plastic cans for those in the city. Also, they showed people starting to “steal” food from the gas station store, yet the little grocer in town had NO ONE there. I think people think “food” before “gas” when it comes time to panic. Also, in this little country town, they had only one ham radio that the sherriff knew about, and it was owned by a whacked out recluse. The further out in the country, the higher the density of ham radios. There probably would have been quite a few..HOWEVER, even this wacko could not use his ham radio outfit AFTER the power for the whole town went down (which is when they brought him into the story) unless he had a genny. This feature of picking and choosing which electrical items don’t work and which magically do in Hollywood is FRUSTRATING. People watch and don’t think…gee I won’t be able to use the phone, or TV or pump oxygen for granny or…. they just think lights go out. In the movie “The Day After Tomorrow” its basically armegeddon, the power is all out throughout the whole region, they are sitting in a bar with candle light WATCHING TV!!! No one has power to broadcast that signal and that bar sure as shootin’ didn’t have a generator going in the middle of New York!!

This inability to comprehend all the ramifications of something as tangible as a power outage is disturbing. How much more inept are average joes in comprehending the end of the supply chain???

Kathy in FL – at 10:45

I missed the show … too much stuff to do, too little time. I had thought about using it as a possible fictional scenario to pick info out of as well. Is there a link to the series for a synopsis of the episode?

NewEnglandNativeat 10:50

I enjoyed it. Even if it was a bit “hollywood”…

Newyorkprepper – at 10:52

Yes, there were certainly things they should have been more careful about portraying, but from an entertainment perspective I enjoyed it. Will be interested to see where the story leads, if the show doesn’t get canned. I don’t think the reviews were rave.

TreasureIslandGalat 10:59

-and they always have to throw in the “clueless dumb blonde” into a show like that. Afterall, the rebellious, prodigal son “Jake” needs to be abel to fall in love with someone during the season. -even if she did receive a lethal does of radiation -if she was walking around where the birds were all just falling out of the sky.

anyone notice how there was no “pulse” initially? wouldn’t that have brought everything down sooner? -and the cars were not affected at all by that. -oh yeah, ‘cuz it didn’t happen.

Also suprised that if the gas station was being overrun, that the little grocery store wasn’t suffering the same fate yet.

I’ll keep watching, but mostly because I like to pick apart flicks like that.

Boy, Jake sure is a tough kid…can walk all that way with a broken, protruding thigh bone and probable concussion, also save the kids and drive a bus (must not have been a stick shift afterall) and also carry kids in his arms, as well as move a heavy dead bus driver by himself. That’s pretty impressive. Minimal blood loss too. Though he was getting a little sleepy near the end.

The pitiful teacher hadn’t even moved from her seat the whole show since she “thought she may have” broken her leg. -not to try to help a little girl from her class who was dying. But she did manage to help herself off the bus just fine when it pulled back into town. Noticed that Jake went away first in the 1 ambulance. -not the girl or the teacher.

Earlier in the show, the mother at the police station was in a panic because her 2nd grade daughter was on the missing bus. -So what 2nd grader doesn’t know his left from his right??!!! We laughed hard at that one! That must have been the resource room kid or a kid like Ralphie, the policeman’s son on “the Simpsons”!!! -Either that or they are making commentary on how bad our school systems really are in parts of America!

A former Lurker – at 11:03

NEMO – at 10:44 First of all there was no one pumping gas after the lights went out. They were fighting about the gas before and after. Secondly the comment on stealing was incorrect, the kid took it upon himself to put the groceries in the Ice Machines to keep them cold for as long as possible, he wasn’t taking them. The lady did say “please don’t steal from me” though……….All nice helpful hints.

A former Lurker – at 11:03

Training for Disaster 101………. I was really looking forward to this show and for all it’s little mistakes I feel it is more of Training for Disaster 101 . Much Needed and it Will help people without them even realize their being taught. Very few like the idea of watching a How To show , this one will do the same without the audience even realizing it. I would bet money it was put in place for just that reason.

NEMO – at 11:04

There is a poor one on CBS— almost like they haven’t really dedicated many resources to this particular show. I will give one here:

The town of Jericho is somewhere in Kansas, (in a geographically impossible spot)120 miles from Wichita and 360 from Kansas City. A guy comes home to his family wanting his inheritance, but Dad says no cause he’s not mature enough yet (at 32). Dad is the town mayor.

The show gives us a glimpse into small town life in this episode. People going about their day. There is a bus of kids on a field trip that have had to take a detour on a gravel road several hours outside of town, the young guy’s ex is driving to Wichita airport to pick up her fiance, nasty high school girls are whining about not being able to shop in New York while menacing the poor stock boy… During the late afternoon, a 10 year old boy is playing hide and seek with his sister, when he is the first to see the mushroom cloud while standing on top of a low barn roof. Just about the same time, other townspeople are seeing it off in the distance. The young man wanting his inheritance has already left town again, and while he is looking up and an oncoming motorist is looking up, they crash head on.

The town mayor is trying to calm people down as they gather in town to find out what’s going on. As the time of the blast, all cell phone, telephone and radio communication goes out. They assume (because the mayor tells them to) that it is probably an accident in Denver at an military base and they probably aren’t under attack. However, after a couple of hours, the young stock boy returns home to hear a telephone message from his mom— wherein she tells him she’s staying (with her boyfriend?) in the city for a couple more days just as the boy hears them saying “what’s that???” then a huge explosion and then nothing…he knows his mom is dead. He takes the tape to the mayor’s house where a couple dozen people are gathered, discussing the situation in candle light. The mayor’s wife plays the cassette for everyone. She tries to comfort the boy saying, “I’m so sorry! I didn’t know your Mom was in Denver”. He blankly looks at the crowd and remarks, “she wasn’t. She was in Atlanta!” This lets loose the knowledge to everyone there, that it isn’t a one off event, and an attack of some sort has happened. Everyone knows that it is very unlikely that Denver and Atlanta would be the sole targets, so minds start to race as to how many and where are the other blasts. The mayors wife drives to town to tell her husband as he is dealing with a building riot at the gas station (as mentioned above— post power outage). The school bus crashed during the mushroom cloud, one little girl has a collapsed larynx and our hero — the prodigal son— finds the bus, saves the girl, and drives the bus back to town since the bus driver is dead and the teacher (our heroine?) has a broken leg.

There’s a new citizen in town that people are curious about ( a black man, who claims to be have been a police officer from St. Louis formerly) who seems to have some good ideas, but the bubba rednecks aren’t listening to him much, at least at first.

The Ex girlfriend of our hero is driving to Wichita to pick up her fiance in the closing moments of the episode. She hits something and pulls over to see what it is. She is unaware of the blasts at this point. She gets out to see hundreds of dead ravens littering the road in the dark of twilight and wonders what in the world is going on.

So…as you might expect..we don’t know if anyone in town at this point is “prepared”. I am sure those details will be exposed in future episodes. Gerald McRaney plays the mayor, Skeet Ulrich plays the prodigal son/hero. A few other familiar faces fill out other members of the cast. It could be interesting, it could be a big flop. CBS certainly hasn’t promoted it much, nor is there much on their website. They don’t seem very committed to it, so it may be pulled in short order unless it gets a cult following like Lost.

lohrewok – at 11:06

Nemo @ 10:44. Good points about the various power issues. I was trying to remember on 9/11, everyone ran to the gas stations, lines around the block. I’m sure it was like that all over the country. Price gouging etc. But does anyone know, did the grocery store get swamped like that too?

TIG @ 10:50 LOL @ the “dumb blonde” but seeing all the dead birds lying around was kind of chilling.

Hey does anyone have a link for a geiger counter? J/K

TreasureIslandGalat 11:08

One good thing about the show, is that it helps bridge the generation gap. Kids today, even college age kids, have been lucky enough to grow up in an age when annihilation by nukes is not the “inevitable end” many of us grew up to believe it would be. The Cold War was quite real. All too real. It was in every day messages and missle tests. We heard it on the radio and saw it on tv and in movies. “Jericho” reminds me a little of “Red Dawn” minus the foreign troops right now.

I worked with troubled teens and they have no concept at all of any real big threats like that in their lives here. They have no concept of how bigger outside events could shape their outcome. Even though this show may seem a little “late”, it may bring that to light.

had this come out back in the 80′s, it wouldn’t be seen as so fictitious as it is probably viewed today by teens.

Some wonder why the 80′s were such a greedy, yuppy, party, time. Well, imagine if you thought you were actually living just for the day… that tomorrow you may be turned to dust or be in immense struggles that woudl probably end up killing you anyway over… you would likely live for the day that way too.

NEMO – at 11:16

A Former Lurker:

About the looting, the scene I was referring to is not the older lady grocer and the teen. She thought he was stealing but he was helping her. It’s the scene at the gas station. People are taking things out of the grocery store part and the owner is trying to stop them because they haven’t paid for any of them and don’t seem interested in trying to pay.

I’ll rewatch the part about the gas pumping (just got a TIVO!) and see if they are still pumping gas after the power goes out or not. I know this aspect of needing electricity to pump gas is often overlooked. Have seen it played out many times in real life during extensive power outages in my own town.

I do think the show is very worthwhile in getting people to THINK— what if??? It’s like they say on other chat rooms…be nice to the newbies…which is what these directors/story writers are— no doubt. It does make sense though, if they had contracted with a prepper (certainly easy to find online) as a technical consultant for the most accurate details. Oh well. At least they are trying to bring up things that the rest of Hollywood is ignoring. A for Effort.

TreasureIslandGalat 11:17

Didn’t they set up one of the generators at the gas station? I thought they had. You could hear it in the background and they had a large floodlight at the station (so you could see the action of the riot). I thought that very early on they ordered the tanks to the station to fill up for the generators… that it was an ongoing comment in the background in case they lost electricity… about the time the angry parents stormed in to ask about their kids. Remember there was a lso tof background “noise” going on at the station, but your focus was supposed to be on the approachign parents.

TreasureIslandGalat 11:21

I think one of the best shows I saw about a “what if” that seemed to really hit home and could very well apply here in a bird flu pandemic scenario is “Testament”. That was the creepiest, most nightmare causing drama I ever saw. it was too real. too much like my town. -other than the fallout radiation issue, the other things like lack of supplies and electricity were really well played out. even lack of coffins.

if anyone wants to get a glimpse of what could happen, how some communities pull together and others apart, this may be a good one to watch.

they shoudl make a movie like testament and meld its realities with the pandemic outbreak film that they showed earlier this year.

NEMO – at 11:22

Treasure Island Gal: as to it being apropos: I believe it is more relevant now than even had it been shown in the 80′s. While we had many close calls (dozens more than most people know), the rumors of nukes being in the US right now bring this home even more so. There are news stories currently circulating (Glenn Beck on Headline News most notably) about muslim clerics telling all muslims to leave New York, Washington DC and Los Angeles IMMEDIATELY. That’s quite chilling! Bin Laden has often claimed we are about to face an American Hiroshima. Now, throw in a pandemic to boot!! I notice that the pandemics seem to occur during major upheavals in society. More stress renders people more prone to infection???

NEMO – at 11:25

Treasure Island Gal: Never heard of Testament. Thanks for the heads up. I’ll see if Netfllix has it.

NEMO – at 11:29

For those that missed this show: CBS has available the entire episode on “innertube”? A link to the episodes that have aired (just the first one so far) is here:

http://www.cbs.com/primetime/jericho/digital/

Kim – at 11:32

I wondered what caused the power to go out… EMP (electromagnetic pulse) from the nuclear blast? If so, all of the vehicles would have been inoperable, radios and phones wouldn’t have worked. As NEMO said, selective displays of what does and doesn’t work after a nuclear blast.

I also found it amazing that people were willing to expend huge amounts of energy to light up the streets afterward (supposedly to help keep people calm). Yeah, right, let’s light up the night even though we know at least two nuclear blasts have occured in our country… use up those now-precious resources quickly!

I also wondered what was freaking out the wild animals in the show (and only the wild animals, various pet dogs on the show didn’t seem perturbed in the least). Shortly after the blast the wild animals were seen running en masse, as if trying to escape a forest fire. Later in the show birds were shown dropping out of the sky, along with other animal carcasses littering one spot in the highway. That spot must have been the proverbial “elephant burial ground” where all the critters congregated to die. How lame.

Despite it’s shortcomings, I’ll give “Jericho” a few more chances. It could turn out to be really good or end as a flop, it’s too early to know. One or two more episodes should tell.

TreasureIslandGalat 11:53

Testament came out in 1983:

The Wetherly family copes with the news that nuclear bombs have been detonated across the country, and it’s only a matter of time before one explodes near their own home. When it does, thousands are killed, and matriarch Carol (Best Actress nominee Jane Alexander) tends to the newly orphaned children while trying to keep her own family together. With a sealed fate, Carol tries to explain the things her kids will never experience on their own. Starring: Jane Alexander, William Devane … Director: Lynne Littman Genre: Drama Format: Widescreen … Language: English Awards: Academy Award® Nominee …

preppiechick – at 12:25

Kathy in fl:

I missed it, also, and found out on yahoo tv listings that it will be replayed Saturday night, at 7 pm central, on cbs. (don’t know if it’s just being replayed locally, so I would still check your local station!)

Science Teacher – at 12:38

I watched the movie Testament and will never forget it. It was released in 1983, the same year as The Day After. Great cast,and was nominated for some Oscars. It has much more in depth character development then The Day After. It is avaiable for purchase (DVD) on Amazon. Here is a link to a review by Roger Ebert http://tinyurl.com/mjdyw It is a gut wrenching movie. If Jericho turns out to be anything like Testament, I think it will get people prepping.

preppiechick – at 12:39

Also, what is with poor Lawrence, kansas? I watched a movie, a couple of months ago, on tv, called “the day after” about a nuke going off there.

sam in az – at 13:24

NEMO - when was the Glenn Beck show that discussed the clerics telling Muslims to leave LA etc? I tried to find the transcript and couldn’t. thanks.

NEMO – at 13:54

Sam: He discussed on last nights show and on the night before. He have discussed it the night before that also, but I didn’t catch that. I know he said there were links about it on his website. Search for Dawood. That was one of the names of the people involved somehow.

Also, for the person who wanted to know where to buy a geiger counter or anyone wanting to prep better for a nuclear event of any size, please visit: http://www.ki4u.com/

I bought my civil defense geiger counter (exactly like the one in the show— which the town wouldn’t have BTW! They have all been sold at auction to places like KI4U. I also bought dosimeters. These look like test tubes that you can clip to your pocket and they measure your total accumulated dose, not just what’s there at the moment. You can reset them with the charger that comes with them. I can totally vouch for the quality of these products as being as advertised, and excellent customer service. At the very least, everyone should download the FREE copy of Nuclear War Survival Skills— this was written by a very knowledgeable man from the Oakwood National Laboratory (Federal Nuclear Laboratory). I also bought a hard copy to have on hand, but you can download the free copy and print it out if that is easier for you. This is an excellent prep item, even for non-nuclear events. It discusses many ways to purify water, build a impromptu oil lamp, use impromptu toilet facilites, on and on. Very, very helpful info. And you can’t beat FREE!

Yes, I know, I’m a freak. The only gal in my neck of the woods with her own personal geiger counter, but heck, my town can always rely on my know to radio in readings so everyone can benefit since I know my town and surrounding communities have no intention of spending money on something so “useless”.

frankiew – at 13:58

It was Tuesday, 9–19–2006. I love his show, very up to date and he has even mentioned avian flu once as possible impending disaster.

Bird Guano – at 13:59

It was really, really bad.

It’s dificult for me to suspend disbelief THAT much.

Perhaps the SciFi channel will pick it up after CBS cancels it.

I need to get TIVO, way too many commercials too.

frankiew – at 14:00

I am sorry sam in az, I was responding to your inquiry of the glenn beck show.

NEMO – at 14:27

Sorry about all the typos above. I usually proofread my posts, but I didn’t this time, and boy does it show.

Concerning the comments about telling all muslims to get out of Los Angeles, etc. immediately:

Please see the transcripts of the shows here: http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0609/19/gb.01.html Look for it about half way down.

and here: http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0609/20/gb.01.html Look for it here about 3/4 of the way down, converstation with Hamid Mir.

He will probably mention it again in today’s show.

Science Teacher – at 15:28

This is a link to an article in the Canada Free Press http://tinyurl.com/mjdyw interview with the reporter about the story mentioned by Glen Beck.

NEMO – at 15:39

ummmmm… science teacher???? not the right link.

Science Teacher – at 15:42

oops, sorry about that! Try this one: http://tinyurl.com/n23ay

JWB – at 16:39

sam in az – at 13:24 when was the Glenn Beck show that discussed the clerics telling Muslims to leave LA etc? I tried to find the transcript and couldn’t. thanks.


Glenn Beck had it on both the radio and TV yesterday (9–20). The radio interview with Hamid Mir (someone I have been following very closely, I read every interview that I can find) is far better than what was on CNN. They talked for nearly an hour. Very chilling. And none of it is ‘new’. In 1998 I was browsing thru Congresses web site and found a just filed report on this very thing. It was yanked within hours. It’s why I started prepping 8 years ago. Our enemies are very patient. There are many books on it since. Yossef Bodansky wrote the first one. He also was the author of the report that I read.

JWB – at 17:05

NEMO – at 13:54 Yes, I know, I’m a freak. The only gal in my neck of the woods with her own personal geiger counter


I got you beat. I got two! They are cool aren’t they?

sam in az – at 17:59

Thanks for the info re the Glenn Beck show everyone. Never saw his show before. Will catch it today and will check out previous transcripts.

LMWatBullRunat 18:10

Have 5 sets of radiation monitoring equipment. (1 for each residence plus vehicles) Each has dosimeters, chargers, batteries, a CD-700, 715 and 717 plus a copy f the manuals for each plus a hard copy of nuclear war survival skills. DW and I each travel with a bottle of KI tablets.

NEMO – at 19:20

LMWatBullRun: I have a NukAlert in my purse (tied it to the strap so it can’t fall out when I topple my purse over.) It chirps at different rates when it picks up gamma rays. About $150 from KI4U. My husband had one in his computer bag, but the bag was stolen. I hope the thieves saw the nukalert in the bag and Sh** themselves!!

Glad to know I’m not the only one who is aware that a nuclear event could be a real possibility. It gets a little lonely out here in Nutso land.

nopower – at 19:23

Just watched it on the tivo tonight. Entertaining enough, hopefully some people will start prepping because of it.

NEMO – at 19:27

One of the fellas that called in to Glenn Beck’s show today said he watched it with his dad. He said after the show, he and his Dad sat down and started making a list and they are beginning to prep like it’s 1950 all over again! That’s at least one person who it made a difference in their thoughts. Whooo hooo!

Bronco Bill – at 19:55

TreasureIslandGal – at 10:59 --- anyone notice how there was no “pulse” initially? wouldn’t that have brought everything down sooner? -and the cars were not affected at all by that. -oh yeah, ‘cuz it didn’t happen.

Kim – at 11:32 --- I wondered what caused the power to go out… EMP (electromagnetic pulse) from the nuclear blast? If so, all of the vehicles would have been inoperable, radios and phones wouldn’t have worked.

EMP (Electro-Magnetic Pulse) will only take out electronics for about 10–25 miles if the initial nuke blast were a ground burst (usually, a ground burst could take place up to 1000 feet above the ground). To take out the continental US, an air burst would have to occur somewhere between 100 and 200 miles above the ground.
From the looks of the initial ‘shroom clouds in the show, what occurred were ground bursts, or very low level air bursts. My guess, based on how the show conveyed the sighting of the burst in Denver, Jericho is about 50–75 miles from where the blast occurred. But, Denver is about 175 miles from the Kansas border. Is “Jericho” in Kansas, or Colorado?
More than likely, the power went out in the town because the grid that ran from Denver out to the outlying towns was destroyed.

Pixie – at 20:44

When much of the Northeast’s power grid went down a couple of years ago, I hit the road immediately (packed and out in 30 minutes) and was on my way to a hotel a couple of hours away that still had power (and A/C, it was August lol!). What struck me the most were the extraordinarily long lines of cars stopped at all the gas stations all along the way. ALL the power was out. No one was pumping - not one. We don’t think about how many travelers move through a gas station in a given hour, but there they were, all lined up - waiting. We were without power for 3 days. I always wondered what all those cars lined up at the gas station ended up doing.

Jane – at 21:11

The new Grey’s Anatomy has a hospital overflowing with flu patients. It just began, so I don’t know what kind or anything else. ABC network.

Jane – at 21:18

Looks like plague, and somehow the IDC (CDC?) is already there in moonsuits, quarantining the surgeons.

Influentia2 – at 21:28

Boy I can’t wait until “LOST” comes back on October 4th.

Safety Lady – at 21:52

http://www.cbs.com/primetime/jericho/digital/

I watched Jerico this afternoon. Pretty good. (I don’t know how to do tiny url.)

Jefiner – at 23:24

Adnan el Shukrijumah

Google that name; this guy is being searched for by every LEO under the sun because of his connection with the “American Hiroshima”.

I know the topic has strayed a long way from bird flu, but talk around the water cooler today was about Jericho and Shukrijumah . . . and then I laid the avian flu threat out as well. Things got quiet real fast.

People are starting, ever so slowly, to pay attention.

JWB – at 23:49

LMWatBullRun – at 18:10

I envy you! That’s what I wanted to do!

Bronco Bill – at 19:55

I try to explain to people the need for missle defense, (two nukes 500 miles up, end of story), and they look at you like you like you came up with some insane scenerio where a bird disease kills a third of the human population! Silly me!

JWB – at 23:56

OK. I promise to use spel ceck an grammmer ceck on alll futuure postinggs!

22 September 2006

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 00:08

Jefiner – at 23:24 Adnan el Shukrijumah

Jefiner, I’m wondering why was he the topic of conversation today over any other run of the mill terriorist — had he been spotted or done something new or was he just added to the list today or what?

Jefiner – at 00:19

There has been a lot of buzz about this guy since after 9/11. It may be that there is more concern with:

It is my understanding that the reason the FBI is concerned about him is that he has extensive training in chemistry, physics and bomb making.

Am I losing sleep over this guy? No. But I am thinking of making “Toujours pret” my new motto—always ready. Isn’t that what prepping is all about?

disclaimer: information noted above is not intended to slander or incriminate anyone who is peaceful and law abiding

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 00:23

OK, I get it! Yep, that latest call for all Muslims to leave the U.S…..or at least leave New York….that could work to our advantage….sigh. Ditto your disclaimer.

preppiechick – at 00:24

iwoi-

He’s the same one that Glenn beck, and others, were talking about(the pilot)…re: imminent threat. (see nemo@ 14:27).

Bronco Bill – at 00:28

Okay….maybe we should get back to the flu….as much interest as I and several others have in this subject, we really shouldn’t get into discussions about nukes and Ramadan and Iran and all that stuff. Takes away from the credibility of FluWiki as a Pandemic Info site. And I’m just as guilty as all…

Kim – at 00:28

Here is an article about the 12th imam (note: I am not a muslim and so cannot vouch that this account of the the 12th imam is completely correct… if anyone knows of any part of this article to be untrue, please post and educate me).

http://www.allaboutpopularissues.org/12th-imam.htm

WACKO – at 00:30

He has been on the FBI list for years. He has a 5 million dollar bounty on his head. This guy is more dangerous than Atta. He is a nuclear ‘expert’. He is an American. I can go on and on. Google him. He’s small, 5′ 4″ 135 lbs. I’m been tapping/following his dreams. I know that sounds funny, but I’m getting close! I the love chase…..and he knows it!!

Call of the Wild – at 00:36

Jericho screened here last night, Australia, but it was up against Two and a Half Men. Saw bits of Jericho in the ad breaks, as I still had the remote if not the ultimate say.

TRay75at 00:40

Don’t be too hard on yourself there, BB. After getting a grasp on the potential of pan flu, I’d gladly slide back to the old 60′s 70′s & 80′s mindset of going up in a nuclear flash to drowning in my own lungs from H5N1. Heck, after 1000 REMS, the nervous system shuts down anyhow and you don’t feel anything, just go off like a light switch. Prepping for a nuclear event is easy compared to a pandemic.

Jericho was not bad for mainstream TV (beat the heck out of the ABC Bird Flu movie), but at 8 PM you still have the decency laws limiting what can be shown (kids need to go to bed before it gets real). Oh, and to resolve the gas pumping issue everyone was so freaky about, they were using a hand-operated diaphragm pump like you see on a lot of farm fuel tanks and was used back in WW II to fuel aircraft in the Pacific islands. So, score one reality point. And the EMP observation was correct, closer to the ground it reduces the reach of the wave of pulse exponentially. Now, my question at the end was “are the birds dying from radiation, or avian flu?”

WACKO – at 00:41

Bronco Bill, you are right. Can the Mods please just erase all non-flu stuff?

Jefiner – at 00:43

Hear ya, BB (I did post disclaimers)

TRay75at 00:46

Careful about how much you kill off. Like over-using antibiotics, you may kill some of the useful things too, and create a new mod-resistant strain of anon posts that it will take weeks to eradicate. (humor intended).

Bronco Bill – at 01:39

Now, my question at the end was “are the birds dying from radiation, or avian flu?”

‘twould add to the suspense now, wouldn’t it? ;-)

WACKO – at 00:41 --- I wasn’t thinking about removing any posts, I thhink they should stay for continuity, but the thread had really deviated from the TV show “Jericho” and observations of prepping, and moved into a subject of, shall we say, opinionative political subject matter. (is that a real phrase?) Ergo, the suggestion to move back to “Jericho” or PanFlu.

NS1 – at 01:51

PF51 v. 12imam

Commentary at noon.

mountainlady – at 01:57

Back to Jerico.

I was thinking the birds died from the shockwave of the blast, but actually in retrospect it is probably more likely to be radiaton. The thing is, that lady was just standing there, possibly getting a dose herself.

I pretty much liked the show, especially the part about how the the mayor’s son that kept saying different things for where he had been, like the army, navy, and something else I can’t remember, ended up helping the bus of kids. Of course, his father couldn’t say he was proud of him, only that his grandfather would have been proud of him.

I will watch it again.

Bronco Bill – at 02:39

About those birds. I don’t think they just “dropped straight from the sky”. I couldn’t tell what they were, but if they were ducks or geese, they were probably flying at around 500 to 1000 feet. It’s possible they died some ways back and fell at an angle; it’s also possible that they were blinded by the flash and just kept flying until they crashed into each other. Of course, the show will have us believe they dropped from exactly where they died…

BB thinks the director put them for dramatization, to scare the blonde…

Kim – at 08:17

mountainlady, I think Jake is giving various explanations for where he’s been for the last 5 years because he doesn’t want anybody to know that he’s been in prison during that time.

Hmmm, wonder if any of the escaped convicts on the bus are buddies of his????

nopower – at 08:25

BB - “couldn’t tell what they were, but if they were ducks or geese, they were probably flying at around 500 to 1000 feet.”

You need to sell your preps and upgrade to HDTV on a big plasma :)

The couple that they did close ups on were all black and looked like crows to me.

Bronco Bill – at 09:26

nopower – at 08:25 --- Daffy Duck had black feathers…. ;-)

no name – at 10:15

Grey’s Anatomy debut fall season show had a story line of “flu like” illness filling the emergency room, with the hospital shutting down and quarantine of patients and doctors. At first I thought it was going to be about the BF before it went to plague conclusion.

Disappointing ending…they let everyone go home and take some pills and all was well, no mention of prepping.

anonymous – at 10:18

Did anyone watch Grey’s Anatomy last night on ABC? They had people coming into the ER left and right, caughing etc. Something about the plague.

History Lover – at 11:18

Bronco Bill – at 02:39 BB thinks the director put them for dramatization, to scare the blonde…

Shame on you Bronco Bill for making such a sexist, stereotypical comment about blondes being more fearful . . . OMG there’s a bug!

Bronco Bill – at 12:18

HAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHA!!! ROTFLMAO!!! :-)

I suppose I could have gone on and on and described her as “that woman who might have been Jake’s love interest except that he left town and she got engaged to some other guy” person! :-)

Bronco Bill – at 12:27

Disappointing ending…they let everyone go home and take some pills and all was well, no mention of prepping.

We gotta remember that these shows are aired for the “entertainment value” (as high or low as that may be) and the producers don’t care whether or not a message is sent out. This “flu patient” influx seemed to come out of nowhere, even surprising the doctors. The show didn’t mention prepping probably because it wouldn’t fit into the storyline…

I’m not sure how that would have played out:

Husband of head-wound patient: “I feel sick. I think I have the flu”

Dr. Bailey: “Sir? SIR? You’re going to be okay. Have you prepped for a flu pandemic yet? NO?!? Well, then you just get your butt outta my ER and go on home!”

Average Concerned Mom – at 12:27

TRay 75 “Prepping for a nuclear event is easy compared to a pandemic.”

That’s really funny (ironic) — I just got into an argument with my husband’s psychiatrist over this very question — would I be more scared of a nuclear attack on my city or a deadly pandemic. (I chose pandemic as more scary, but to be honest, I didn’t like either option. Is there a third door?) (-:

slongo – at 12:49

NEMO – at 10:31 Why did they have to put in a busload of escaped convicts? This is scary enough.

This is network TV, I think we’re lucky they didn’t have a Swedish Bikini Team bus stranded somewhere to perk up the ratings.

A former Lurker – at 11:03 The lady did say “please don’t steal from me” though

I actually think she said “Please don’t steal for me.”

Y’all are sharp. I didn’t notice alot of the inconsistancy you mentioned. Obviously I will be among the many sounding a thunderous…DOH!

EOD – at 13:25

sam in az – at 13:24 Here’s a link to a news story on that. Be sure to go to the bottom of the page and look through those additional links to other related articles. In my mind there are far too many people with the right backgrounds and in the right places saying the same thing to just dismiss this out-of-hand.

http://tinyurl.com/em2po

nopower – at 13:58
nopower – at 13:59

Ahh.. it worked, what kind of duck or goose is that BB?

Bronco Bill – at 14:24

Don’t know. Graphics downloads are blocked here at work. All I see is the little box with a red X. I’ll check it tonite when I get home…

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 14:32

That’s the crow that was in my back yard last week!!! Danged thing was eating the birdseed out of our tray!!

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 14:35

AVERAGE CONCERNED MOM!!!!! Did you have your meeting?? If so, pick up the old thread or start a new one & tell us how things went!!!!!!!

Average Concerned Mom – at 14:38

Yup — it’s all there on the Psychiatry and Pandemic thread — I’d put a link but the kids are screaming! It was….. weird! (-:

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 14:43

okey-doke, I’ll go read it!!!

Bronco Bill – at 18:56

nopower – at 13:59 --- Home now. Yup. That there’s a crow. 3 of ‘em, in fact.

SaddleTrampat 20:37

The birds looked pretty big to be crows. I thought they might be buzzards. The interesting fact is that the blonde chickie stopped her car to get out and look when it went thump, thump. The scene showed dead birds in her lane back to the horizon. Did she manage to miss all the others?

And regarding EMP - according to my DH who is an electronics engineer, it has absolutely zero effect on electronic equipment and repair parts that are not in operation at the time of the pulse. If your car is parked or the radio/TV turned off, the pulse won’t get it. If it IS in operation, it takes more than “sittin around” time to recover. You actually have to replace the affected pieces. And in case you are wondering, it won’t drain batteries, either.

I remember Testament too as an extraordinary movie, particularly since it came on right after The Day After - where we were first introduced to the concept of Nuclear Winter. The mother in the story resolved to kill herself and all the little orphan kids by carbon-monoxide poisoning in a car locked in a garage. She changes her mind when one of kids asks her why they are just sitting in the car. Hell - it was 1983 and I can still describe huge parts of both stories. The one that really got me, though, was “World War III.” Every time a jet goes over, my blood chills. I still can’t shake it.

no name – at 23:52

BB 12:27

Just color me blonde!

23 September 2006

no name – at 00:09

Just reread the off subject material on thread and visited links…if I get a radiation detector key chain…I think my family and friends will take me, with force, to the nearest nut house!!!

JWB – at 00:25

no name – at 00:09 Don’t tell them it’s a radiation detector! Just tell them it’s an alien detector! That’s what I did and they understood and left me alone.

no name – at 00:30

JWB…I thought you were going to bed!!! Yes, I think alien detector would work.

My favorite holiday is Halloween because the aliens get to be themselves. Neptonia from Neptune comes out in me!

LMWatBullRunat 09:35

A couple comments on the JEricho film-

-The burst seen was a large detonation based on the apparent size of the cloud/fireball. There was no characteristic ‘double flash’ noted. It wasn’t more than 100 miles away to the west, and appeared to be less. With average wind speeds in the central midwest and direction from W to E, I would expect fallout to start arriving 2–4 hours from initial burst. It could be less depending on the weather. There was no apparent fallout within that time. This appeared to be an inconsistency.

- The depiction of the deranged ‘ham operator’ I found to be grossly offensive (as a former ham.) and did not appear to contribute to the story line.

- There was no explanation of or reason why the power would have stayed on so long after the attack. This appeared to be an inconsistency. One of the warning signs for a nuclear event is the power going off in remote areas unexpectedly.

-

Top Cat – at 12:24

Another thing I noticed is that the bus was marked “Elementary” Here in Texas the buses are just marked with the name of the school district. I think in some ways the directors are trying too hard to make us think. Also, the mayor told everybody just to go home and they would sort it all out in the morning. The town’s people nodded and we had the feeling that they were going to do just that. Do you honestly think people would go home and go to bed after all of that?

Medical Maven – at 12:45

I saw the first episode. Don’t think the series will make it. And it certainly is no primer for prepping. Now if they could have combined almost documentary “how-to-do” whatever with drama based on historical accounts of survival emergencies, they could have immediately gained a hard-core of devotees. And the base would have been much larger than fluwikians.

It is not too late for them.

Maybe the writers for the show will accidently google us up, and really get lucky.

Northstar – at 17:34

Does anyone know if the pilot episode will repeat? My computer can’t handle the Innertube version. Thanks.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 18:35

It’s back on on Sat night.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 18:36

Tonight

Jane – at 20:26

I don’t understand the head-on crash of Jake’s car heading west (he was presumably looking at the mushroom cloud in Denver) and the stationwagon that drifted into his lane (why? what was that driver looking at?). Maybe he lied about going “back to San Diego” and was headed East, but then what was he staring at? Either way, I wonder if there were 2 mushroom clouds visible. Or maybe he was just thinking about the landscape he had missed and was leaving. Or maybe every detail doesn’t have to have meaning.

24 September 2006

LMWatBullRunat 00:55

I hope that the show writers do Google us. It’d be a hoot being a technical consultant for a disaster series…….

Bronco Bill – at 01:21

Jane – at 20:26 --- I caught the same thing. I couldn’t figure out why they were looking in opposite directions at the same cloud…

JWB – at 12:15

More on Hamid Mir and Adnan el Shukrijumah today…from the Northeast Intelligence Network….

23 September 2006: You can’t believe all the news that’s originated from Saudi sources, printed in French newspapers, and broadcast on major news outlets throughout the U. S., Canada, and Europe.

That’s the word from Hamid Mir, Osama bin Laden’s official biographer and the only journalist to interview the elusive al Qaeda emir in the wake of 9/11.

On Saturday, September 23, the French newspaper L’Est Republicain reported that Osama bin Laden had died in Pakistan. The cause of his death, according to the report, was a “very serious case of typhoid” which led to “paralysis of his internal organs.” The newspaper, which claimed to have obtained the news from a credible Saudi source, said that the al Qaeda chieftain, who remains the most wanted man in the world, died on August 23.

In an exclusive release to the Northeast Intelligence Network and Canada Free Press, Mr. Mir called the report “rubbish” and said that it represented “old wine in an new bottle,” an apparent allusion to Congressman Curt Weldon’s statement last March to The Philadelphia Inquirer that bin Laden had died in Iran.

Mir maintains that bin Laden is alive, well, and living the lawless frontier of Pakistan. He says that the al Qaeda leader completed his plans for an “American Hiroshima” - - a nuclear attack on major metropolitan areas throughout the U. S. and has gained the approval of some Muslim scholars to kill millions of American civilians.

The delay of the attack, Mir says, may have been caused by bin Laden’s desire to aid President George W. Bush in his 2004 bid for re-election. The emir, according to the Pakistani reporter, believes that the policies of the current administration serve to increase the political strength of his terrorist organization. Mir maintains that bin Laden’s willingness to bolster the Bush campaign came with his release of a video statement shortly before American voters went to the polls.

Mir says that Adnan el Shukrijumah, the al Qaeda agent who has been singled out by bin Laden to commandeer the American Hiroshima, has been given orders “to increase the level and the scope” of the attack.

Last week, Abu Dawood, the leader of al Qaeda in Afghanistan, warned U. S. Muslims that they must leave the U. S. without further warning.

http://tinyurl.com/p9lwx

I wish this was all just a movie.

Medical Maven – at 12:55

Somewhere in the world at some time a crude nuke will be smuggled into some city center or harbor and be detonated. Not one terrorist expert in the world will contravene the previous statement. Only worse news could invalidate that prediction, a viral asteroid.

EOD – at 14:49

A crewel joke by the universe would be to hit us with both; just after we realize BF has gone sustained H2H & air travel has spread it to the different continents, we get slammed by the bad guys. Would that be the ultimate in irony or what?

On the fence and leaning – at 15:07

Bad guys would be no more immune than others. Might level the playing field.

f-w – at 17:21

RE Jerico: What, these people don’t have battery powered radios? I can see the TV stations being out, and most metropolitan radio stations. But there are plenty of radio stations in small towns that wouldn’t be hit (barring a massive EMP), and AM broadcasts can travel long distances. And even if ALL radio broadcasting in North America somehow was cut out, if you had a shortwave set you could pick up Europe, Asia, South America, and find out what’s going on from them. These people shouldn’t be so in the dark, in every sense of the phrase.

Something funny going on, here…

Prepping Gal – at 18:50

Regarding Grey’s Anatomy perhaps Americans aren’t aware that Canada got episode two shown by accident rather than the premiere episode. The episode we watched is McDreamy’s wife realizing her marriage is over when she finds the panties in her hubbys tux. Grey is going to decide by that evening if she’s going for McDreamy or the vet. Looks like (can’t think of all their names) “chubby cheeks guy living with Grey” has invited his girlfriend to move in after the Chief finds her living in the hospital basement. Sandra Oh is caught in her underwear on top of her surgeon boyfriend by his parents (his mother is the mother from hell for Sandra). Blondey is busy making hundreds of muffins in her grieve over the death of Dennis(?) and at the end “the nazi” comes to the house to talk to Blondey. There you have it so now you are caught up as well.

bird-dog – at 21:44

Check out Northeast Intelligence Network on Wikepedia, fmi. You may or may not be alarmed at its’ possibly far,far right position and its “reliance on bible prophecies as sources”, etc.. Plus…

JWB - at 12;15 - your post is IMO so much more than our weary souls can/should have to handle right now as we’re trying as best we can to help ourselves, friends, and families, communities, etc… become aware of another threat. You add this into the pot and it all feels hopeless…time to get the old gun out and bid the world adieu. Thanks for the heads up but… please, how can *that* info help us be more energized and effective in communicating re. bf/ai. I truely feel mixed about this as I am always interested in ‘knowing’ what is knowable rather than avoiding an opportunity…even if it is bad news. This ‘news’ is totally out of our control, at least while TPTB are in office (& that *could* mean in the M.E., Asia, the U.S.,or anywhere…). Thanks

Bronco Bill – at 22:08

And I think we may be vearing a bit too far off the track of a Pandemic Flu preparation board…

bird-dog – at 22:20

BB Thanks. <whew>

25 September 2006

JWB – at 07:41

Sorry. It’s something I have been following for awhile. I thought that it may come up in a future episode of Jericho. You’re right, it doesn’t belong on a flu board, and we all have plenty to think about as it is. I won’t bring it up or discusss it anymore. Sorry and Thanx.

bird-dog – at 08:48

JWK - & much thanks back to you. ;)

bird-dog – at 08:49

ie. JWB

27 September 2006

bgw in MT – at 21:09

It’s on here, right now.

Kim – at 21:59

Well, after this 2nd episode I think this show is a joke. There is far too much false and misleading information in it for me, it seems to apply to actual survival techniques about as much as the tv show Survivor (which is near zero). And the drama, or attempt at such, is about enough to make you gag. Nope, probably won’t watch it anymore, too much fictionalized Hollywood for me.

History Lover – at 22:03

The blonde really kicked butt tonight. Score one for my gender!

nopower – at 22:45

The blonde who didn’t find it odd that the local sheriff’s deputies didn’t know where to get gas in their own county?? The blonde who lives in a town of a couple thousand and didn’t notice that the two deputies in a department of probably no more than a dozen are complete strangers to her??

Yes, she really kicked butt :)

But then I’ve never lived in a small town, rural area - maybe that is common.

Kim – at 22:59

Yeah, I think the blonde and Jake are both at about the same intelligence level… she’s not alarmed that these “cops” have tattoos on the back of their necks, that they don’t know where to get gas, that they aren’t talking on the radio; and Jake bombs shut the entrance to the salt mine where a bunch of residents have taken cover, because he doesn’t want the rain water filling the shaft… excuse me, is there a mine in existance that’s built so that its shaft fills with rainwater??? Okay, well just bury me in the salt mine, or maybe I’ll take refuge in my basement after being sure to put plastic and duct tape over the closed windows… that’ll protect me from radiation. What a hoot!

giraffe – at 23:19

So are those of us who missed the showing tonight going to be able to view it online, as we did the first episode? Just got home from class and was hoping to get up to speed here.

28 September 2006

Eccles – at 01:06

Meantime, the one glaring thing that most folks are missing is that fallout falls regardless of rain. SInce the show established that they were only about 2 hrs downwind of Denver, they would have been getting fallout overnight. By the time the rainstorm appeared, most of them would be seriously dying anyhow.

The fallout would produce a field intensity of approximately 30,000 rem/hr an hour after the blast. Even if we gave them 7 hours before it fell, the intensity would only have subsided to about 3,000 rem/hr. Since a cumulative dose of about 400 rem would be enough to kill half of those exposed, they would be seriously cooked. It would take 2 days before the intensity fell to about 300 rem/hr, which would only permit MINUTES of exposure, and then only in the direst of emergencies. Another two weeks would bring it down to 30 rem/hr, which would permit short trips between shelters, as long as they decontaminated well before tracking the crap in with them.

The coming atractions seem to show them running around the following moring on wet streets, right after the rain would have brought the mother lode right down on their town and environs. They are losing me quickly.

I do, however think it is a nice touch that they label each episode in code in the intro, but very few of us are able to copy it.

Hurricane Alley RN – at 01:56

Eccles - I hate code! However, they gave it away when the man was sticking the red push pins in the map. He was marking cities where the bombs hit across the U.S. Of course they didn’t show them all. gina

Eccles – at 08:05

HARN -

I’ll betcha I’m the only one on FW who heard what he actually was receiving. By the way, nice antique rig they used. The FT-101F is a real classic.

Hillbilly Bill – at 08:14

The most factual part of last night’s episode was the state of preparedness of the town. Actually, they probably had more than most towns that size in the U.S. Our town doesn’t even have a library so we won’t even have a copy of “Our Friend the Atom”.

nopower – at 08:16

I was wondering who was able to understand the morse code while watching it and if it actually said the cities he was writing down or if it said something like “Congratulations, you know morse code!”

Kim – at 08:27

Eccles, what you pointed out about the fallout is the most glaring example of why this show is all hollywood with no substance. I AM glad that we watched it however… as I was laughing about the absurdities of it all, DH made several comments that prove to me that he knows next to nothing about nuclear fallout. Time to have him read the free online book ‘Nuclear War Survival Skills’. I really just assumed that he knew better, but apparently not. I dearly hope that nobody will rely on the things they see in this tv show to protect them in such a situation should it ever arise.

http://www.ki4u.com/free_book/index.htm

History Lover – at 09:40

No Power and Kim - you both have a point! I think the producers could have made this show more substantive but instead decided to go for melodrama. Too bad.

f-w – at 11:06

From a pepping standpoint, you have to wonder how much food there is in the town grocery store. They seem to be taking large amounts out…

I also wonder what the folks in the salt mine are going to eat, but maybe I missed them bringing food in.

JWB – at 11:13

Well I’ll admit that I didn’t see the first show. I had no idea that this show was comedy! I thought that leaving out the canned laughter was a neat trick. I was in stiches over the discussion on the premature baby being left in the incubator as they prepared for the fallout onslaught. “We can leave him here. He’ll be safe in this, and it even has ventilation”. I turned it off at that point.

Hillbilly Bill – at 11:18

JWB – at 11:13

You are the kind of person that TV producers hate. I bet you even think “American Idol” and “Survivor” are rigged. :-)

JWB – at 11:31

HH

I can’t make a call on either of those shows. My attention span last about 60 seconds with them. I’ve tried watching them with other people, but I just can’t. My in-laws think I’m crazy. If they only really knew. 8-D

Eccles – at 11:34

f-w

I am more interested in what they are going to be breathing. Any ventilation system would be sucking the fallout in with the air.

But that’s OK. they aren’t going to be needing food, as they are only going to be down there overnight. Watch. You’ll see. The next morning, they’ll all be running around like chipmunks.

In reality world, that would be followed by hair and skin falling off in chunks, but I’ll bet not on this show.

Nopower- I didn’t write it down, so I don’t have it verbatim, but the first string he copied just said Omega alert (or some such alert, I didn’t write it down), two minute warning

(Interesting note, they sent the two as text, not using the much faster morse symbol for the number 2. I think, I didn’t write it down)

The remaining strings were not complete enough to convey a full set of words, but no city names were sent. I would have remembered that. the second string he copied was only a few letters. AAnd the code sending speed was rather slow, only about 12 WPM or so. Not much can be said in that sound bite.

Hillbilly Bill – at 11:35

JWB – at 11:31

IMO, your attention span is probably too long to be able to watch those shows. I can’t tolerate them either. I prefer shows that move so quickly that you really have to pay attention or you miss critical details, rather than something that I can follow if I occassionally pass through the room.

JWB – at 11:38

I actually find it more fascinating to watch the people that are watching the show. I think to myself, “Wow, they are hypnotised and transfixed that easily! I should have been a T.V. producer. I would be ruling the world by now!”

JWB – at 11:43

Hillbilly Bill – at 11:35 Yes. It’s sort of like playing baseball. The only sport I know of that you can participate in and actually have time to take a nap.

Jane – at 14:30

Wonder who was able to collect all the info about which dozen or so cities were hit? How would that happen? Also wonder who he really is, that “policeman” from St. Louis? Where did Jake get the gun, anyway? Guess he really didn’t have a compound fracture of the leg. I’m still going to watch to see how they deal with being cut off.

btw, couldn’t they (the writers) just have had an EMP and not so much radiation and still have a ton of problems?

Nova – at 20:04

“The Day After” is just now starting on SciFi channel. Waaay more realistic about survival in the aftermath…

Nova – at 20:05

“The Day After” is just now starting on SciFi channel. Waaay more realistic about survival in the aftermath…

JWB – at 20:19

Nova

Thanks! I haven’t seen that movie since it came out in 1983!

NEMO – at 20:59

The front of my forehead is much flatter than it was before the show came on. I’ll need to spackle the nice hole in my living room wall also, where I was pounding my head !Arrgggghhhh! I was hoping it would get people thinking and prepping, but there is no way!! Has anyone else noticed these writers are geographically retarded as well? Have never even spoken to a person who lives in a small town? Didn’t even read the most cursory research on fallout?? This show just pisses me off!

Nova – at 21:05

NEMO: are you referring to Jericho or The Day After? I always thought The Day After was very realistic. The irony of this whole thing is that I have been following the Bird Flu threat for a long time but not feeling too pressured to finish preps. Then the rumors about the possiblity of a nuclear attack from terrorists during this Ramadan was covered by Glenn Beck and various Internet sites and it got me off my butt. I guess survival is survival is survival…

PS. I am also a woman who carries a Nukalert on her keychain!

TRay75at 21:21

“The Day After”, on my list of the top 5 most depressing movies ever screened. After that, I decided living through a nuclear war was the least desirable option and put off having children for over 10 years. Now, 10 years later and looking at a pandemic from human adapted H5N1, I regret changing my mind and having them if they will have to die as the kids in Asia have so far.

I suggest we begin to consider our lives re-compartmentalized to 3 new classifications:

B-TSHTF - before TSHTF, now, and the past 2 years. W-TSHTF - when TSHTF, the period in which sustained efficient H2H infection begins and becomes known to the public via media and governmental publicity spinners - likely beginning a week after the swan goes feet up and the wikians dive for our SIP positions. A-TSHTF - after the calming corporate voices start coughing up blood and dropping dead from Tamiflu-resistant strains of H5N1 and using bogus N95 masks their employers purchased from low-bid off-shore suppliers over the Internet after finding all domestic supplies were already in government vaults. This period will define the next 500 to 800 years of mankind, like the Black Death and the Little Ice Age influenced the prior 800 years. One point, it will likely see the end of human induced global warming.

Now, let’s see VIACOM make a TV show out of that!

Eccles – at 21:22

Nemo - The one that had my WIFE screaming at the show was when the bad guys kept asking for a gas station. There they were in Kansas for Criminy sake, with farms everywhere, and each one with its own gas supply for the equipment.

Anyone who has ever lived anywhere outside of LaLa land or New Yaork would freakin know that!

I would say these people are ignoramuses, but that would be unfair to the other ignoramuses.

preppiechick – at 22:02

just a silly comment:

i believe that there are no coincidences…I can’t believe that my post on the 21st (7 days ago, exactly) i posted about “the day after” at the same time as science teacher. I noticed it was on tonite and went to mention it here, but of course we are all so quick! i haven’t seen this movie in 20 years and now it’s on twice since this summer and will be replayed again on Oct. 8th. I wonder if tptb are trying to prep us,subtlety, with all of these movies and shows?! Either way, I still wonder why they are all taking place near lawrence, kansas? I live in St. Louis- maybe the coasts aren’t so bad (though toooo expensive, i used to live in new england!). (putting away the tinfoil hat…)

And to stay on topic… I do agree that hollywood has taken a lot of poetic license (and when don’t they… have you ever seen a movie adaptation of a bestseller?) but in my opinion, I am just glad that they are at least trying. ONE person who preps because of this is one less person we’ll have to worry about later.

Nova – at 22:12

TRay75: I watched a network TV show recently about all the possible end of the world scenarios. One of the things that truly shocked me was during the segment about the potential comet of doom they asked a variety of people what they would do if they knew a comet was coming and they had a year to live and knew that would be end. Two unrelated people said that even though they knew it was selfish they would have a baby so they could have the experience (one was a man and one was a woman). Yeah, I’d say that’s the ultimate selfishness. But, the truth is that we don’t know for sure if the horrors are coming.

In that entire program only one person…one person…said they would fall to their knees and pray. Most everyone else said they would party, start smoking, stop working, eat all the fattening foods they wanted, not pay their bills. Only one person said they would pray. I found that a very enlightening take on the human condition.

TRay75at 23:18

Nova – at 22:12, I saw that show myself, but with a lot of years of human experience and being born during and growing to adulthood during the Cold War I can understand it.

If you put a “heavenly body” (i.e. comet or asteroid - I did my college thesis on that in 77) into the equation you in effect take away the safety and faith of all but the most devoutly practicing religious minds. It becomes subconciously perceived as some form of proof that their deity of worship doesn’t care about or favor them. Pretty quickly, the fabric holding social order and morals erodes.

That is one of my biggest concerns of H5N1 rolling completely to the “Dark Side”. I had decided that after 5 years of no huge collapse following the break up of the Soviet Union, relatively friendly relations between Russia and the US, and about 25,000 nukes being decommissioned, there was reason for hope. A year after my daughter was born, 9/11, and I have had second thoughts ever since.

I can understand why few would drop in prayer. Speaking rhetorical - if everything on which ones world is based is about to go away, then maybe belief in a loving, caring deity may also be in error. It is not a deliberate thought, it is subconscious.

Personally, I pray with my children each night, despite my own doubts and experiences, to give them something I missed in my childhood - as sense of belonging and having a spiritual “parent” on which to base hope during hopelessness. If H5N1 is humanity’s grand finale I think there may be a serious spiritual breakdown before there are huge numbers of dead begining to fill the streets. But in the end most people of any and all or no spiritual background will think something akin to “Why me, God?”

Decades ago a wise man once said that there are no atheist in a foxhole. Duck and cover!

Please understand I am in no way attacking any faith or belief, just expressing an observation I researched back before we were sure what killed the dinosaurs. Now my daughter has even asked me if we had dinosaurs when I was a little boy. I had hoped that she would never have to know the underlying fear my generation grew up with, but over the last 2 years I have come to feel that old familiar fear at the core of my being.

“Jericho” may be dramatized tripe, hopelessly flawed in it’s technical foundation on many levels, and “The Day After” one of the biggest sales tools in the history of Prozac, but how may people remember that after the first screening of “The Day After” there was a follow-up live forum by Peter Jennings that got the world talking about how a nuclear war was not worth surviving? Within a decade the danger of a 30,000 warhead exchange was gone from this planet. If mass entertainment can get people to think, to talk, to wake up, to see the dangers, even if the solutions are not what we know will work, then it has done a service. It creates a “Teachable Moment”.

Nova – at 23:35

TRay75: Wow. Impressive observations. Thank you for sharing.

29 September 2006

Eccles – at 00:36

TRay75 - In one sense, the conversion of the horror from a 30,000 warhead exchange to the “American Hiroshima” with half a dozen to a dozen singly targetted detonations is that it makes it more horrible.

In the Great Exchange, pretty no matter how well equipped you are or where you live, the resultant conditions will be virtually unsurvivable in the long run. In the much smaller terrorist attack, a great many people living in most of the land area of the US would have the ability to survive, and conditions would not be assured to be short-term lethal. But the economic and political chaos that would result would create an even bigger collapse of supply and infrastructure than the pandemic we fear.

As for prayer, the one point my wife always brings up when people feel that their rayers aren’t listened to: “God hears all prayers. Sometimes the answer is NO.”

Doug Baker – at 01:03

I live in Fort Collins, just north of Denver. My wife has family in Topeka,KS. Most summers we take the drive to visit.

You can’t see the mountains to the west, even on a clear day, in Kansas. You can from Eastern Colorado. I don’t know the exact spot but it is not that far from Denver.

Also the colorado/kansas border is hours of driving from Denver.

It would appear even the simple facts are wrong on the show. It would be impossible to see the mushroom cloud to the west and the mountains.

Eccles – at 01:17

Doug - That was another badly bungled detail. The mushroom cloud would have had to have been absolutely huge to see it from that distance. Much more likely (and not even shown) would be the bright flash and fireball on the horizon which accompanied actual detonation.

LMWatBullRunat 04:43

‘Jericho’ is rubbish and I’ll waste no more time watching or discussing it.

As regards the nuclear threat, have the following comments-

For a somewhat dated but still relevant treatise on the problem of “third-party” nuclear proliferation, read “One Point Safe”. When I finished that book I bought 5 complete sets of fallout monitoring equipment and 5 copies of the current version of “Nuclear War Survival Skills” by Cresson Kearney. I don’t think the devices the terrorists use will have to be crude; according to a Washington Post article I read some years back, there are over 80 unaccounted for formerly Soviet backpack nuclear weapons. Given the present ongoing economic meltdown in the former Soviet Union, my expectation is that some of those weapons will be sold to terrorist organizations and employed against the US.

As regards the effects of such a weapon, which has a rated yield of 22 KT, from the bomb effects computer that I got with my copy of “The effects of nuclear weapons” a 22KT surface burst would result in 1 psi overpressure out to just over 2 miles. 0.25 psi out to 5.2 miles. The fireball will be visible for just under a second and be about 0.2 miles in diameter.

Eccles, I am afraid that your intensity calcs are off by at least a factor of 10. The output I get from AirRad, the fallout simulation program that Los Alamos used to use, which I got from the author online, indicates a much lower 1 hour intensity and so does TEONW formulae from which the program was derived. See also TEONW chapter 9 pp 425 and 426. For the 22 KT device in question, intensity depends in large measure upon the area over which the fission products are spread, and this depends on a lot of factors. Those interested in this topic should consult the nearest university library which may have a copy of TEONW; those institutions which are government document repositories should have a copy for sure. I bought mine on Ebay.

TRay75- If I may, a little unsolicited advice- Never give up hope. Nuclear war and panflu are horrible to contemplate, but H. Sap. has been surviving horrible threats for….. all of our existence! We’re still here!

Eccles – at 07:38

LMW - I yield to your more recent numbers. The numbers I cited were based on calculations remembered from about 30 years ago, and assumed a much larger weapon in ground burst deployment. If the calculator shows I am off, then I stand corrected.

But even if I am off by a factor of 10, the answer is still that they aren’t just going to go scurrying around the following morning without serious (fatal) repercussions.

NEMO – at 17:00

Nova: The show that had me banging my head against the wall was the second episode of Jericho. I started watching “The Day After” last night and, not wanting to use up the last of the Depends, decided it was getting way too intense (much more so than I remembered it being when I watched it several years back) and started switching back and forth to a nice comforting British murder/cop show!! The Day After is VERY well done, well researched and very frightening!! I think Jericho certainly didn’t need to be that scary, but it could have been done much better without spending one extra cent. The only reason I will keep watching is for comedic relief.

BullRun: Can you give us a bit of a synopsis/review on the “One Point Safe” book you mentioned? Is it fiction/non-fiction? Who was the author?

I’ve been thinking I should pull out my copy of “Nuclear War Survival Skills” but it always makes my family look up numbers for mental health care centers in the yello pages when I break it out for a read. Maybe I’ll need to keep it shoved between the mattress for late night reading like my sons did with a playboy?? Wrap it in plastic and hide it in the toilet tank for a little light reading on the crapper??? (I’m so lady-like!!) I can hardly wait till I see my son has “written me up” in his english journal and his teacher has posted his journal entry onto the web!!! Man, can’t we just be paranoid in private anymore??

04 October 2006

nopower – at 21:13

Helpful advice that works just as well for a Nuclear attack or pandemic:

  1. Give it 24 hours and some rain and everything will be safe.
  2. Have a big cookout with your meat because there is no way to preserve it. Besides, there is more food on the train that happens to be right down the track.
  3. One doctor can easily treat a town of hundreds so you will be fine when the pandemic hits because your town has plenty of doctors.

The “cop from St. Louis” seems like a bad dude. At first I thought “well that guy is just a prepper with the NBC suit and the storage locker, nothing out of the norm there”. But he seems like a sleeper to me.

Nova – at 21:16

Yikes! My understanding is that…no matter what you do…do NOT drink the iodine!!! I’m told you rub it on your skin. Of course, the ideal is to have the potassium idodate pills designed just for that purpose. Dear God, did they do no research whatsoever???

Dennis in Colorado – at 21:24

Potassium iodide is the treatment for radiation exposure.

Northstar – at 21:27

NEMO: LOL! You’re cracking me up! But if you want to product-test the limits of those Depends, rent “28 Days Later” the pandemic flick to end all pandemic flicks. Just don’t clear your throat…aaack aaaack, as Bill the Cat used to say.

Nova – at 21:30

Dennis in Colorado: Yep. That is what my bottle says. Gee, I guess I shouldn’t throw stones; didn’t do my own research very well, did I?

Nova – at 21:32

Actually, it says Potassium Iodate…is that the same thing as Iodide?

Dennis in Colorado – at 22:05

I have never heard of potassium iodate. When I search my online dictionary for it, I get:
“No results found for potassium iodate.
Did you mean potassium iodide?”

However, many such compounds have slightly different names in British English versus American English. Maybe this is one example of an “uncommon” secondary name.

Nova – at 22:25

Dennis: it is called Potassium Iodate -K103 85 mg with each pill containing 50 mg of elemental iodine.

Jane – at 22:33

If you have only iodine, paint an area on the inside of your forearm approximately 2″ by 3″, if I remember correctly. (Or would it hurt to do 3 x 4″, because I don’t really know.) Anyway, this doesn’t take care of your whole body, just your thyroid gland. It’s especially important for children, because thyroid cancer takes a long time to develop and adults may die of something else in the meantime.

Jericho was on during our dinner, and DH found it too unpleasant, so I missed it. Did someone say something about tanks (Army tanks??) outside the town? Is the “St. Louis cop” looking more suspicious? The first two weeks, he seemed mysterious but one of the good guys.

AVanartsat 22:36

Oh,yeah, Potassium Iodide is not a treatment for radiation exposure. It is specifically, and only, used to prevent radioacitive Iodine isotopes from being absorbed into the body. Other than that it does nothing to prevent or treat radiation poisoning.

Eccles – at 22:38

Wait, you’re both right. There are two forms of oral Potassium-iodine that are suitbale for use in radiation releases. One one potassium iodide (KI) this is an ionic salt of iodine, and from all reports is the nastiest tasting thing on the planet. Another compound, potassium iodate (KIO3) is another compound from which your body can obtain iodine when needed. It has much less nastiness of taste. We have both forms in stock. Tincture of iodine is not only unsuitable for the purpose of providing the iodine in the form you need, but is also is fairly toxic if swallowed.


I have lived out in the great plains. I just want to know where the people are from the next town ten miles down the road one way, eight miles down the road the other way, 12 miles down the road the other way, and all of the farmers and ranchers who will be running into town in their pickups to find out what is happening with no power, no phone and no radio.


The language of that TV broadcast sounded like Japanese to me. So Hawkens is obviously either stupid or up to something.


Finally, a Boeing 757 would weigh about 200,000 pounds upon landing (with passengers) and has a landing gear tread of 24 feet. I sure would not like to try to land one on a 2-lane balcktop. the results would be unpredictable, but very different from what was depicted in the show.

Nova – at 22:40

There were tanks and crashed airplanes. And, yes, the St. Louis “cop” is definitely something more. I really don’t know why I’m watching it…it is utterly innane. I think it’s because I have become as concerned about the threat of nuclear terrorism as I am about bird flu. I hoped I would learn something useful. But, if somebody chugs out of a bottle of iodine like this show tonight showed I think it would kill them before the radiation even had an opportunity to.

Nova – at 22:58

The one thing I did find realistic was—after the townfolk nearly wiped out the stocks of the local store—the shop owner donated everything else to the town for a “party”, and no one even thanked her. As discussed many times on this site, people today just expect to be taken care of.

05 October 2006

AVanartsat 09:34

Eccles, my Potassium Iodide tablets come with a rather lengthy warning and a description of the symptoms of Iodine posioning. The redox reaction converting Iodine to Iodide and back happens easily any your body will convert either to whichever form it wants (or sometimes doesn’t want). If any of the Iodide that is in the tablet of Potassium Iodide or Iodate reaches your stomach before it is absorbed, it will convert to elemental Iodine as soon as it hits your stomach acid.

The key is to get just enough Iodine, in just about any form, into the body to saturate the thyroide gland without getting enough to reach a toxic level. For this reason it is best to keep a written description of the symptoms of Iodine poisoning handy. Also remember to always read lables. The water “purification” tablets that usually say “No Iodine” are almost always made from Potassium Periodate, which is an excellent source of Iodine and will add to the basic load of Iodine the body is receiving. In his book “Life After Doomsday,” Bruce Clayton suggests that someone using the Potassium Periodate tables in his drinking water would probably not need any other source of Iodine.

Well, I should quit rambling now and go get another cup of coffee.

History Lover – at 10:21

I’m going to give the show a couple more times before I bail. Although the St. Louis “cop” may be a bad guy, he’s still the most interesting person on the show. I don’t know much about treatments for radiation poisoning, but the final scene where the teenager finds the railroad car filled with food was too much. These people live in a rural area. Don’t they farm and keep livestock? I guess the writers included the saving foodstuffs so they can now concentrate on the melodrama.

NEMO – at 11:29

History: If they did farm and keep livestock, the animals would no longer be safe to use for food…not that the inane writers would know that!

As has been mentioned, the rain washes the radiation out of the atmoshpere and deposits it in concentrated amounts on the surface. It’s not the rain that so awfully bad, it’s the end result when all that radiation is now in the ground, on buildings, cars, everything. That was the MOST dangerous and absurd scene I have ever seen!! The second the rain stopped, the writers had everything “all clear” like it was mysterious acid rain that became inocuous when it hit the ground! The IRS agent was freaking because she touched a building?? Yet everyone one else is walking on the same stuff and they’re not affected?

Most small towns are supplied by trucks not trains!! Trains bring the big stuff to commercial areas, cars, coal, large manufacturing pieces and products. No train is going to stop in Buttsville, USA to unload 1 DAMN car full of food!!!

On the St. Louis cop, I think he “used” to be a St. Louis cop, then probably became Homeland Security. I think he knew something was in the wind, and that’s why he left (or was told to leave to ‘salt’ a knowledgeable person into the countryside— repeated hundreds of times through the country). I think he’s building a safe room in the basement with those concrete blocks so when the hordes come through, he has a place to hide himself and his family. He was all set up in that locked room in the basement last week with that map mounted on a board and those nice red pins waiting to be used. I don’t think our government is organized enough to send people out to safe zones, especially when it included taking his whole family with him.

There are a lot of whispers (in the real world- not the show) from some groups about the gubment knowing more about the American Hiroshima threat than they are telling, but they don’t know exactly when. I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop, one shoe is pandemic and the other is nuclear terrorism. Who bought these damn shoes anyways!! They’re ugly!!

I will keep watching. We Tivo it, and when my husband gets home on the weekends, I watch it again with him. I am able to “teach” him some facts about fallout and radiation and nuclear safety as we rip it apart and crack up. It makes for a low stress teachable moment.

preppiechick – at 13:05

NEMO:

Thats exactly what we were saying thruout, including the shelter…and we are also waiting for wo different shoes. Of course, they could end up being related! But I still think that something is better than nothing. For those that missed “the day after” it is replaying again, on Sunday afternoon, on Scifi channel. Here’s a link for times:

Scifi channel day after

preppiechick – at 13:06
Bird Guano – at 14:48

Drinking Betadine ??

Not just stupid from a dramatic standpoint, but stupid to the point of criminal negligence to air it on national television.

This must have been written by “x generation” writers.

It’s getting to the point where it’s not even entertaining to rip apart their bad writing.

The high point was Gerald McRaney punching out his political rival.

All in all an el-stinko show.

And what’s with all the backpack nuke stuff here ?

NEIN is about as crackpot as they come, as a source of “news”.

Congratulations Fluwikie.. You’ve made it to the prime time where you are now attracting the whacko fringe of the internet.

Bird Guano – at 14:49

BTW the ONLY reason I would watch in in the future is to see what the Philly cop is up to.

;−0

TRay75at 14:51

Bird Guano – at 14:48 - You are probably right. I looked at this as comic relief from the stress of a real disaster.

Irene – at 15:00

Bird Guano, I find it interesting that the children of the Philly cop haven’t been seen and that they were not allowed to go to the party. I could be wrong but I think the cop said something along the lines of the timing was not right yet. It was a strange comment to make.

I kind of like the show simply because I am enjoying the comments on this thread. I wouldn’t be surprised if, in the plot line, that Jericho turned out to be some sort of government experiment and that there had been no nuclear disaster at all.

Bird Guano – at 15:08

Irene – at 15:00

Bird Guano, I find it interesting that the children of the Philly cop haven’t been seen and that they were not allowed to go to the party. I could be wrong but I think the cop said something along the lines of the timing was not right yet. It was a strange comment to make.


Unless they are handicapped or adopted (perhaps why he knows Mandarin)

Eccles – at 17:23

Bird Guano - There was no way that was Mandarin. it was Japanese. Now either the producers are ignoramuses, or else they are trying to embed tings for “cult” followers to find.

Ya know, it occured to me that putting it up just before LOST, and creating a Lost-like seting, they are thinking to capture LOST people. It ain’t going to happen. You need to actually have an engrosing story line. I find it hard to get engrossed when I have trouble keeping track of all the CARP they show, and are just plain wrong.

Northstar – at 18:38

Well, I hope all you more nuclear-knowledgeable folks continue posting, because I’m sure learning a lot from you. I get on right after it airs to see how y’all have ripped on my new favorite doomer show! Jericho makes a grand total of two shows now on TV I’ll watch. And yes, I know it’s terrible! Even I groaned at the boxcar! And the train engineers went… camping?

Nova – at 19:06

AVnarts at 9:34: Okay, now you’ve got me concerned. Should I toss the K103 tablets and get those water purification tablets you mentioned. I thought K103 was one of the safer choices.

Bird Guano: I am undecided about NEIN. They obviously have an agenda, but they also have carried news reports before they were picked up by the mainstream media (kinda like this site). NEIN notwithstanding, the American Hiroshima rumor has been covered on both CNN and Fox News as well. And, all that notwithstanding, what about the growing nuclear threats of Iran and N. Korea? I grew up in the duck and cover generation but thought all that was behind me. I’m not so sure anymore. I guess you can’t give man such horrific power and expect there to be no temptation to use it. I think the reason there are so many people of my generation on this site is that we came from the duck and cover generation and lived under the threat of Domocles (sp?) Sword. I think that’s why we’re so receptive to the Bird Flu threat. I don’t think it demeans this site that we are discussing both possible disasters. The knowledge of how to survive both is contained in the wisdom of the group mind this site has created.

On the fence and hey stop pushing – at 22:42

I bet all preppers who watched the last episode had a little heart murmur when the kid on the rail road tracks found a whole train full of supplies.

Bird Guano – at 23:32

On the fence and hey stop pushing – at 22:42

I bet all preppers who watched the last episode had a little heart murmur when the kid on the rail road tracks found a whole train full of supplies.

---

First thing I thought of was…

Cool, a powerplant for the whole town.

;-)

Bird Guano – at 23:35

Eccles – at 17:23

Bird Guano - There was no way that was Mandarin. it was Japanese. Now either the producers are ignoramuses, or else they are trying to embed tings for “cult” followers to find.


I’d have to listen to it again.

I only caught it in passing, and my Japanese is rusty but passable.

Actually sounded Korean to my ear when I caught it while passing through the room.

I’ll have to see if you can zero in on part of the show on their video stream to have another listen.

Bird Guano – at 23:38

Oh ya.

Forgot to add to the first post.

Diesel electric locomotive + JP8 fuel from the landed aircraft = community power plant.

06 October 2006

AzNewBeat 06:27

If you read the credits it say “Chinese News Man” It caught my attention. We’ll continue to watch as I can use it to help teach my kids That this is something that could occur as We as a Nation tend to P*** people off. As my 18yr old DD would say “True Story” LOL

walker910 – at 09:24

There’s a novel by Pat Frank about survival in a small community following nuclear attack, titled “Alas Babylon”. It is far from realistic in several areas, dead wrong in a few. But it is well written, and still one of my favorite reads. I believe the term is ‘entertainment’.

I am enjoying ‘Jericho’, in much the same way—although it’s not as well written. Nevertheless, it’s entertaining. I’ll leave it at that.

On the other hand, as someone mentioned earlier, if watching this show prompts a viewer somewhere to ‘do some research’ and ‘learn a bit more’ and they happen to end up at FluWiki learning a thing or two that might get them and their family through the worst . . . well, that’s what we’re all hoping for anyway, isn’t it?

History Lover – at 11:09

Nemo @ 11:29 - You’re right about the livestock and crops. I didn’t think about that. And that is a good assessment on the St. Louis cop. As I said before, so far he’s the only interesting aspect of the show and probably the only reason I’ll give it a few more chances.

Hillbilly Bill – at 11:19

One thing for sure about the St. Louis cop, he doesn’t know how to lay blocks correctly.

History Lover – at 11:29

Hillbilly Bill - LOL! We live in an old pre-WWII adobe home. Ten years ago we decided to build an addition, a detached bedroom for our then teenaged son. It’s not as easy as you would think to build an adobe room. First, my husband had to travel to the middle of the desert to find a 150-year-old man who made adobe bricks. We then hired two 100-year-old workers (the only ones knowledgeable enough)to properly lay the bricks. It’s a dying art, and the ones who know how to do it correctly will not be around much longer.

nopower – at 11:30

HBB -

I didn’t catch that the first time but now that I think about it he wasn’t offsetting them. That’s funny.

Hillbilly Bill – at 11:56

nopower – at 11:30

What I noticed was that he was improperly applying the mortar. He put it on the crosspieces only and neglected the outside edges.

Bird Guano – at 18:52

Hey what do actors know about mason work.

Most of them are waiters.

LOL

Ya, the St. Louis cop character is the ONLY reason I’ll watch the show again.

f-w – at 19:55

I found it interesting the St. Louis cop not only had a map of the U.S. already laid out, but also a radiation suit and mask, a barrel full of what looked like automatic rifles, and the cement and spare cinder blocks to build a false wall to hide the barrel behind.

That level of preparation is extremely suspicious…

Jane – at 21:48

Maybe he built the wall incorrectly because he wanted it to be easy to break down when he wanted to get at the rifles. But who are his accomplices? Koreans or Chinese? I missed the show, but it’s hard to see Japan as the attacker. What’s it called, a fifth column, sleepers waiting until called upon by the faction or government to whom they are loyal?

NEMO – at 22:21

Actually, in a second shot of him building the wall, it did show him laying mortar on the side pieces. I was watching closely at this part too. I’ll keep watching, if for no other reason than to test myself on my powers of observation. Kind of like testing myself on my knowledge of what to do in a nuclear event.

Read the online book: Nuclear War Survival Skills

Google it. It’s available free at many sites.

10 October 2006

Dennis in Colorado – at 10:23

Interesting additional resource for checking details:
http://meyerweb.com/eric/tools/gmap/hydesim.html

13 October 2006

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 20:06

Ok, no one has posted since LAST week’s show and I just tonight watched THIS week’s show…..saw the kids, wife, heard them going over their ‘cover’ story.

Now what do you suppose made Victor go back toward Denver if he’d left with his family? Did I miss something and his family really wasn’t with him or did he turn back to Denver for a reason other than family?

What’s going on anyway? What could anyone want with this little town? I’ve not seen anything strategic about the location or the businesses…….any ideas?

nopower – at 20:37

I’ve read some of the comments over at avsforum and the going theories are: that they were involved in the attack and are blending in waiting for the next phase (he made a comment to the guy in the hospital that they were now a man short). Or they worked for the US government (Homeland Security, military, something) and knew an attack was coming so they made plans for their family and the aftermath. On the other hand, it doesn’t seem like it is his family and that they are just a cover.

Homeland Security is showing up next week which will probably be day 5 or 6 after the blasts and will probably make everything all better - since this show is based on reality :)

The good news is - if you are less than two hours away from a city hit by a nuke, you only have to stay in a shelter or mine for a day and then all the radiation and fallout are magically gone. But like someone on another forum said, the show would have been pretty boring if they spent the whole first season in the shelter and starved to death.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 20:50

nopower – at 20:37…… Homeland Security is showing up next week which will probably be day 5 or 6 after the blasts and will probably make everything all better - since this show is based on reality :)

I think JAKE can make everything alright, after all, he sure made his shattered hip or whatever it was, heal up fast. :-)

Jane – at 20:52

I think it IS his family; when the wife contradicted him in the cover-story rehearsal, she said something about her having to do everything because he was never there.

The man with radiation poisoning went back to save a bunch of people that he cared about-maybe he worked with them? The only thing is, he tried to save them too late; they had been poisoned already.

So, these guys knew there would be a bombing. It’s pretty drastic for a coup. They must be working with the Chinese? Kim Il Jung? What can they be getting out of it? The man who died had a designated role, but was he supposed to be in the same town as the St. Louis cop or did he go there to get help for his friends? I wonder if the show will be on long enough to answer the questions. (I have to admit missing Surface and Invasion since they were cancelled.)

14 October 2006

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 07:08

Jane – at 20:52 ….. I have to admit missing Surface

I saw a marathon the other day….I told my DH they had to cancel ‘cause they’d created a problem they had no idea how to fix. :-)

nopower – at 12:55

Jane -

Jericho has been given the green light for the whole first season by CBS.

moeb – at 13:20

IMO I think they are a band of preppers who pre planned to bug out to the small town country side. Victor was coming with his family and other’s he allowed to tag along. They got caught in the rain and he went ahead to seek help.

apparently he was a prepper who didn’t pay full attention

my guess anyway :-)

Bird Guano – at 13:26

My guess is a good-guy cell of Delta Force members who had prior intelligence knowledge of the attack, and are now trying to blend in awaiting orders.

nopower – at 14:06

Well if they are government, former government they probably need a good cover story as much as if they are a sleeper cell of the group that attacked.

People who find out we are prepped when panflu hits will probably question how we knew about it and think we had something to do with it. :)

Eccles – at 18:19

The real science fiction aspect of the upcomng show will be when the FEMA people arrive, are organized, efficient, competent and actually make a positive contribution to the situation in the town.

In the meantime, I am still waiting for the slacker writers to either realize that out in those parts many more people live in the farms and ranches around town than actually live IN the towns. So, at some point, either the slacker writers will need to come up with some reason that no one from even like 10 feet out of town has wandered in and asked “WTF is happening?”, or else the townies discover that everyone else in the world bu them is dead.

Tis a puzzlement.

15 October 2006

Bird Guano – at 00:00

They got briefed at the town BBQ.

Must have smelled the steaks and came into town.

LOL

Missed this week.

Any fan sites up yet with spoilers ?

Intrepid Dad – at 02:57

If your computer is up to it, you can watch all of the previously aired episodes on the CBS website (www.cbs.com/jericho).

mountainlady – at 04:39

Yeah, I was wondering where all the people around the town were, myself. I mean, they keep driving all over and never see much of anyone. You would think that people would be going all over the place if they could, just to find out what has happened. There are MILLIONS here in the US. If only 6 or 7 cities were hit, there would STILL be millions.

But, with fiction you have to suspend disbelief. :-D

Too bad about Surface and Invasion. I liked both of those. That little guy raised by the kid from an egg was cute in Surface.

History Lover – at 12:56

mountainlady - I agree with you about Surface and Invasion. They both had good story lines and were really well produced. And they were both so “out there” that they didn’t have to bother with too much realism.

I missed last week’s show also so could someone catch me up a bit? Was anything revealed about the cop?

Irene – at 13:07

You can watch any episodes you miss on the CBS site here:

http://www.cbs.com/innertube/

Just click on the tab marked “Jericho”.

Jane – at 13:38

History Lover, I missed some, but it’s now clear that the “cop” has a cover story that he’s forced his family to learn or else (what, we don’t know). The teenage daughter went to a party, and he scolded her for risking their lives. It seems to me that keeping everybody home all the time is not normal, so his idea of appearing to be an ordinary family, who just happened to move to Jericho, is flawed from the start. It isn’t enough to not do anything suspicious, you have to act like a normal citizen. I suppose he’s the only one who has been undercover, and he doesn’t trust his wife and kids to keep it together under pressure.

History Lover – at 15:16

Jane - Thanks for the update. Like you, I’m a little perplexed by his actions, but it keeps me tuning in.

Irene - I did try that site, but I couldn’t download the Flash. I guess I wasn’t peddling fast enough. Hopefully some cable channel will have a Jericho marathon, and I can catch up.

19 October 2006

On the fence and leaning – at 15:59

Watched it last night. Interesting show. Not realistic but I like to watch it.

The people of the town have been ‘cut off’ from the outside for awhile now and it seems the only place that prepped was the bar. Everyone stops in, orders a beer or other drink and it comes right out. Always crowded.

I digress. Here’s what I wanted to point out. Last night the powere all of a sudden came back on. Then the communication (TV,Phones) kicked on. An automated message then rang in on all phones with a message from Homeland Security. One of the characters, who is an IRS agent from D.C. states that she was told (hinted at a briefing maybe or a friend) that after a disaster, DHS first would restore power, then COM, and then travel. So, is this little bit of drama trivia true? Anyone heard of an ordered plan to restore the country or parts of the country in this specific order? I assume that the writers, although very much over the top, at least did a tiny internet search to base some of this stuff on.

20 October 2006

Jane – at 11:29

Suddenly, the TPTB turn on the power, and a fire starts in the library or school. And another near some homes. Maybe it was the power surge? Could townspeople have prevented it? Or limited it? (I know fire is extremely dangerous, but I kept thinking, Grab some books!!)

Who was with Jake at the water tower-he asked Jake, how could you know (how to turn it on)? Jake replies, how could you NOT know? Can’t tell if Jake has had lots of training that he doesn’t want to discuss, or he has common sense that the other man hasn’t needed much so far in his life.

About the “cop,” it looks like he has his own backup power for his satellite dish and computer. Wonder if his daughter will notice and bring her new friend to use Dad’s computer, because she wants to help her new friend contact her missing parents. It’s raised the tension level having Jake see the equipment being used in the backyard.

It looks like the reality level is dropping, though. Winter is coming, yet we don’t see anyone working on getting ready or discussing what they should do. Maybe that will come later after more of their time has passed. How long has it been? Looks like the teacher’s broken leg has healed already-that’s six weeks.

Irene – at 11:50

Although there are elements about the show that I find interesting, the most annoying thing to me is that the way the people are acting make no sense to me.

For example, planes have made emergency landings on the highway and the passengers have evacuated and disappeared. Wouldn’t it be logical to send out search parties? Instead, everyone just relaxes at the bar.

Another example is that no one is grieving except the young boy. The teenage girl has a big party with her friends at her house a day or two after she finds out her parents may be dead and is also enjoying herself at the town barbeque. It’s also extremely unlikely that none of the townspeople don’t have any friends or relatives in Denver or any of the other places that appear to have been hit. Yet no one appears concerned.

On the fence and leaning – at 17:05

Irene: I agree, some of it can annoy. As I mentioned earlier, it’s funny how now one is running out of anything yet. The bar is serving beer like they are still getting their daily delivery. Granted, it would be boring to see people meet in tents all the time but it looks like a serious “Cheers” episode at times!

I did like how they all acted when the power came on: charge up all the charge items, vacuum while you can, fill up the tubs and take quick showers because you never know how long….. Maybe there was something to take away from that.

Jane – at 17:48

Whoa, I almost forgot-what were those streaks in the sky at the end? They were going up, right? Is the US making a retaliatory strike with our own missiles?

f-w – at 20:08

Jane – at 17:48

Intercontinental ballistic missles heading somewhere fast. Interestingly, from the orientation of the people on the street standing in front of City Hall (which supposedly faces north), they’re going westward…

I liked the kid who asked if Emily was going to wake up… with super powers. ^__^

25 October 2006

lady biker – at 22:19

well I for one so far am enjoying the show, it has it’s momonts I’ll admit, but that’s TV for ya. This weeks show scared me though. and it’s something that I have heard a lot of yall talk about. How people will just be taking what they want and not think about anyone else. I was absolutely furious while watching tonight and I was scared too. I live alone and have no real close neighbors so sorta like a target . I got a real eye opener of how there is safety in numbers and how it’s lots better if people work together . There is more of a chance of survival. Has me doing some heavy duty thinking anyway, I don’t know what I will do but I guess for now just prep and play it by ear.

cottontop – at 23:06

Lady Biker-

that’s about all we can do for now. I’m really hoping this will fizzle out. I’m just having a hard time getting my mind wrapped around the disaster, and it will be. I run things through my mind, trying to map out what life will be like for about 2+, and I quickly change my mind’s thought. Just scarey.

Northstar – at 23:10

lady biker, I like it, too, though hubby and I just bust up sometimes. Tonight’s stinker was the teen girl getting into super-secret Daddy’s safe room (which he just left unlocked -whoops!) and seeing the photo of Jake up on the screen of the laptop (data just left up there — D’oh!) We surmised SSD was sent to Podunk — Jericho — because he kept having security lapses!

I think they are very right about the lawlessness and shortages, though. I’m glad this idea is being subtly brought forward to a mass audience… Jericho is one of the sleeper hits of the season. So much good it could do, just with suggestion.

K7LHR – at 23:38

I like the show but they need a technical advisor for the electronics especially the radio communications: re: police using CB radios to talk to Motorola UHF handhelds and no antenna connected to Ham Radios while communicating, also turning satelite dish on pole mount to get different stations. Morse code is a nice touch.

26 October 2006

Gary Near Death Valley – at 00:09

I find the show interesting, although at times know some of the shortcomings. Oct 25 episode, one of the few things I saw that was totally out of line (and most people would not know it), were the cockroaches on the ground, with the chickens. Cockroaches only come out at night and of course the chickens (I have some), are roosting. They did get it correct though in saying the cockroaches help clean up after the chickens and that is the case. If a cockroach comes within eyesight during the daytime of a chicken,,,,,,,,it is an eaten cockroach. I pick up boards around the chicken coop, and let the chickens eat all they can catch.

Goju – at 07:53

Cockroaches clean up after chickens?????

The hidden Indonesian resevoir?

Gary Near Death Valley – at 09:22

Goju – at 07:53 Yes, if you go out to the chicken coop after dark, when the chickens are roosting off the ground, the ground itself is covered with what I would say thousands of those little creatures. The chickens don’t bother them as they dont get down till about daylight, then the roaches are gone. The roaches eat the “chicken happy meals” and that is not from KFC.

nopower – at 10:58

I admit I was yelling at the TV when the daughter walked into the “unlocked” secret room with the metal door.

It is also frustrated me that they emerged from the fallout shelter immediately and then the EMP goes off and it is suddenly “2 weeks later”. I guess nothing of interest would happen for two weeks after witnessing missle launches and an EMP knocking out all the electronics.

On the bright side, it did show that horses are an excellent source of alternative transport assuming you can feed them and keep people from stealing them.

f-w – at 11:13

I note the straw bales in Jericho are so firmly packed they can stop shotgun blasts. Very impressive. ^__^

Northstar – at 11:30

f-w, I was impressed by those hay bales, too!

Sunny – at 13:17

I wondered if they were sort of “hinting” at pandemic or at least some sort of illness with the man who has the flu and the lack of medical supplies (painkillers for the broken arm).

Also actually perked up my ears to hear about the cockroaches and chickens - but I doubt “Hollywood” knows enough about bird flu to go anywhere with that.

Goju – at 13:42

I just watched it on CBS.com/innertube - Why did it take so long for the EMP blast? I always thought THAT would be the first strike…

I just love how the town is coming together after almost coming apart - very realistic - NOT.

I also just finished reading Alas, Babylon… about nuke war taking place in the 50′s. Interesting parellels. Now i am totally disaster focused. Great…. just great!

Closed and Continued - Bronco Bill – at 14:02

Closed for length and continued here

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Bird Flu Warning Prevents Pandemic

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Bird Flu Warning Prevents Pandemic

26 October 2006

prepmaniac – at 06:38

I read the article in which Nebarro sp? sort of indicates that an immediate threat no longer exists? Do you think he believes the pandemic will not happen this year. Do you think it is just the way the author wrote the story?

crfullmoon – at 07:07

yup.

I read it as “that’s why the pandemic didn’t already start last time” - with perhaps some encouraging words to governments (rather than say in public they aren’t doing a good enough job, and where are the sequences??) to keep trying.

Is there already a thread with a link, in the news (or, the misinformation hall; If that was all the article title said, I wouldn’t want the public to glance at the headline and think they’re off the -pandemic- hook now)

How much testing of humans and mammals and birds do you suppose is being done on the ground in Africa? I don’t think “enough”, given all the other problems. And we know people around Asia still wait a long time before going to doctors/hopsital, still smuggle, still mix all sorts of contact with wild/domestic mammals, ect. (People here in the US do too, for that matter, as we’ll see if we get a high-path strain here.)

Found this dated Oct. 26, 2006

…”the rate of human death is still distressingly high, with Indonesia increasingly becoming the country which causes all of us… very great concern “ David Nabarro, the UN’s coordinator for bird flu told reporters in New York.”…

…”Dr. Nabarro, who has just returned from a fact-finding trip to Australia, Cambodia, Indonesia and Myanmar, said in order to deal with such a long-term problem, … it will mean changes to commercial bird rearing and also better preparedness to deal with outbreaks.”

…” still there’s such a lot to be done.”…

… but still the amount of viral outbreaks in 2006 were many greater than any previous year,” Nabarro added.

However, experts fear that the H5N1 virus could mutate, gaining the ability to pass from person to person and in a worst case scenario unleashing a deadly human pandemic. Dr. Nabarro warned that it will remain a “major animal health issue” for years.

“We think it’s going to stay that way for five years perhaps 10 years to come because the virus is highly pathogenic yet at the same time can seem to survive in certain communities of birds without symptoms… and secondly it does seem to be spread by a combination of wild birds and trade.”

Tom DVM – at 09:16

Hi prepmaniac Excellent question.

We have gone through several waves of apprehension by officials followed by waves of spin in the past twelve months.

My interpretation of the latest incarnations would be that you can only look at preparations for so long before you throw your hands in the air in frustration.

First, antivirals were the magic pill…they didn’t work. Then vaccines were going to fix the problem…they don’t work either. Then we get down to layers of infrastructure, food supplies, hydro-electricity, water supplies etc. etc. etc.

No wonder they would be frustrated…this is a catastrophic event that other than an asteroid hitting the earth, would be hard to repeat.

Now, faced with the realities, authorities are gambling that it won’t happen at all…it will be a near miss. They have one piece of evidence to base the conclusion on…it hasn’t happened yet. We don’t know enough about infuenza to conclude much else.

I think they are wrong…H5N1 is behaving exactly as I expected that it would…it is right on track to produce a pandemic…it will produce a pandemic…it is a question of timing.

Although I think it will occur in the next six months, I have no concrete evidence either.

crfullmoon – at 10:09

And it would sure be nice, if we were wrong,

but, if the officials who say “Prep for two weeks, you and yours’ll probably be ok”, or “If you get sick, you’ll get better and be right back to work” are wrong,

the impact of that is too high to risk.

cottontop – at 10:13

TomDVM- we need you on WHO.

In reguards to frustration, that’s what I’m feeling, as well as my family. The main issue for us at the moment is daughter and school. Because we have no timeline to go by, and lack of information from our state on prepardness, and the school as well, we are trying to have some sort of guideline to decide when and if we should take her out of school. We’re just frustrated at this point. I’m for jumping the gun, but when is early, too early? Hubby wants to wait until reports of human cases start to appear, and of course it’s round and round. Daughter is all for “jumping the gun.” She would be.

Leo7 – at 12:03

All, I find it absolutely strange that it hasn’t taken off in Africa either. The people are in the weakest state in the world. AIDS, HIV, Polio, etc, famine. It’s hard to suspect it’s coming here, when it’s not there. What is the explanation? Anyone care to speculate?

Sniffles – at 12:13

Leo7 – at 12:03 I have wondered too if there haven’t been small family clusters in Africa that burnt out, just as we have seen in Indonesia. The problem with Africa is that they really do not have much of a public health surveillance system to catch any of these cases in a timely manner. When someone dies, they are buried very quickly without any type of testing to determine the cause of death. There is very little medical treatment for health problems, especially among the poor. IMHO, I do not think we would see the human cases in Africa until it was out of control just because there are so many other diseases to mask the initial cases.

Albert – at 12:14

Leo7 : It is not possible to give a rational explanation either way. Let me just cite an example of another killer disease, yellow fever. Endemic in South America and Africa, it does not occur anywhere in Asia. The mosquito vector, Aedes, is present, the “right” ecological conditions are present, and there must certainly have been numerous infected people travelling from endemic areas to South Asia for example to have jump-started the disease cycle. But it has never happened (so far).

Tom DVM – at 12:38

Albert excellent analysis.

Nature is not rational…or at least rational using human parameters.

Tom DVM – at 12:41

cottontop. Thanks.

diana – at 13:39

Well we have the right vector for Dengue in my back yard and the south. But most of the Dengue cases here in the states have been travelers. Yet you have it in the Carribean, Central America and Mexico.I think there have been about 2000 cases of Dengue in the states since 1970′s. Travelers mostly.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / New Food Warehouse Planned for Valhalla NY

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: New Food Warehouse Planned for Valhalla NY

23 October 2006

CCJachat 17:11

Westchester County Executive Andrew Spano has included $500,000 in the proposed new budget “to design a new food storage warehouse complex” to be built in Valhalla (near NYC.) “County officials say the space would be used by both Food-PATCH and Westchester County’s emergency services department, which could stockpile water and supplies in advance of a natural disaster or other emergency.” (Food Patch is a Westchester organization that serves as a central supplier to food pantries and soup kitchens throughout the county.)

http://tinyurl.com/yde48o

banshee – at 17:26

CCJach, Interesting story. Wonder if they are building any others around the country. Perhaps something has been learned from Katrina?

Sutton said the warehouse would help solve the county’s issues with distributing food and water during an emergency and might even be a place the Federal Emergency Management Agency would “pre-position” food and water for the region.

Bird Guano – at 17:55

Smart to build it as dual-use for both a food bank, and for emergency storage.

That way you get non-profit funds and expertise to manage it.

One way to check if there are others, is to search for press releases on foodbanks, and to check building permits.

26 October 2006

crfullmoon – at 13:17

(Always seems appropriate somehow that they’d pick Valhalla to store the food)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valhalla

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Canning and Food Preservation Recipes

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Canning and Food Preservation Recipes

23 July 2006

Kim – at 21:22

I for one would LOVE to have all of our canning recipes in one place, along with recipes (times and temperatures) for dehydrated foods. Let’s try and limit this to just recipes that we all can home-can in jars, or foods that we can dehydrate or otherwise preserve for long term storage, NOT recipes for actually using the canned or dehydrated food mixed with other stuff. Chefs, step forward!

24 July 2006

shadddup – at 07:59

ummmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm…this is gonna be a challenge…

lol

0:)

p.s. I’ll be back with some recipes once I have some more coffee.

Shad.

Hillbilly Bill – at 08:26

OK, I’ll start this off with the first thing I ever learned to can, green beans.

String beans (if needed) and break into one inch pieces. Rinse beans and pack into steilized quart jars. Add 1 teaspoon salt and pour in boiling water until normal headspace is obtained. Wipe the rim of the jars, put on sterilized lids and rings and process quarts at recommended pressure for your altitude for 25 minutes.

KMinFLat 15:10

Does anyone have a recipe for canning bbq pork, chicken or beef. I don’t know how long I can survive without bbq. :)

Kathy in FL – at 17:30

KMinFL – at 15:10

I’ll look and see what I have and try and get it here by tomorrow. Oh, by the way, we have the same initials, how funny. <grin>

Kathy in FL – at 18:26

Western BBQ Beans

Prepare home canning jars and lids according to manufactuer’s instructions.

Combine beans; cover beans with cold water and let stand 12 to 18 hours in a cool place. Drain and cover with boiling water; boil for 3 minutes. Remove from heat and let stand 10 minutes. Drain. Combine onions, salt, spices, tomato juice and molasses; heat to a boil. Pack 1 cup of beans into hot jar. Top with a piece of pork and fill jar about 3/4 full of beans. Carefully ladle hot sauce over beans, leaving 1-inch headspace. Remove air bubbles with a nonmetallic spatula. Place lid on jar. Screw band down evenly and firmly.

Process pints 1 hour and 5 minutes, quarts 1 hour and 15 minutes, at 10 pounds pressure in a steam-pressure canner.

Yield: about 5 pints.

Kathy in FL – at 18:28

Bean and Bacon soup (canned)

Combine all ingredients except bacon and onion; cook until soft. Cut bacon into small pieces and fry. Remove bacon and cook up onion in bacon grease until soft. Put all ingredients together and heat until it simmers. Remove bay leaves before putting in jars. Pressure can 1 hour at 10 lbs.

Makes about 16 quarts.

Follow-up comment:

Kathy in FL – at 18:30

Jeanette’s Pickled Hot Dogs

mix last 4 items together stuff hotdog’s and peppers into the jar put the water/vinegar mix into the jar leaving about 1/2 inch space seal the jars and put into the hot water bath canner for 15 pints and 20 mins for quarts

(Note: these are “pickled” and are therefore considered a high-acid food and do not require pressure canning, but can be hot water bath canned)

Kathy in FL – at 18:34

Cut hot dogs to fit in whatever jar size you are using. Fill sterilized jars, leaving slightly more than one inch head space. Pour boiling hot water to fill the space between the hot dogs. Move a spoon about the jar, to make sure you got the air pockets out.

Process in your canner at 10 PSI pint jars 75 minutes; Quarts for 1 hour and 30 minutes.

They will really plumb up, even if they are cheapy sale hot dogs.

For an WONDERFUL variation, try slicing them (like rounds), put into the hot sterile jar with your favorite BBQ sauce (many books have recipes for BBQ sauce). Process as described above. Hope this helps.

Kathy in FL – at 18:35

Canned Meatballs

  Mix all together.  Make into small meatballs. Saute lightly.
  Pack hot into jars and cover with water or beef broth.  Process in
  pressure cooker 75 minutes for pints, 90 for quarts at the 

appropriate

  pressure for your altitude.
Kathy in FL – at 18:36

Sloppy Joes CANNED

Prepare jars and lids—Brown ground beef, onion and garlic-Drain and set aside.Combine brown sugar and mustard and add remaining ingredients and add to beef mixture. Heat thoroughly. Ladle mixture in hot jars. Leave 1 in head space. Remove air bubbles and wipe jars and seal. Process 1 hour and 15 minutes @ 10 lbs. pressure in pressure canner. Yield 6 pints

Kathy in FL – at 18:38

Here’s my general note on canning meats, with some specific comments on chicken. I got these a while back so always double check your directions on the latest safety recommendations.

Allow 3 1/2 to 4 1/2 pounds chicken for each quart canned with bone, and 5 1/2 to 6 1/4 pounds per quart without bone. Rinse chilled, dressed chicken in cold water. Pat dry with clean cloth. Cut up; remove visible fat. Boil, steam or bake chicken till medium-done — pink color should be almost gone. Pack chicken pieces loosely into hot clean jars. Place thigh and drumsticks with skin next to glass and fit breast pieces into center, leaving 1-inch headspace. If desired, add 1 teaspoon salt for quarts and 1/2 teaspoon for pints. Pour in boiling water or broth, leaving 1-inch headspace. Wipe rims, adjust lids. Process in pressure canner at 10 pounds pressure — for poultry with bones, process 75 minutes for quarts or 65 minutes for pints; for deboned poultry process 90 minutes for quarts or 75 minutes for pionts. *Boil in a small amount of water for 15 to 20 minutes before tasting or using poultry.*

To raw pack fresh meats and poultry, prepare jars. Cut meat from bone. Use bones to prepare stock. For chicken, sparate pieces at the joints. Trim fat carefully, as it may cause meat to have a strong flavour as well as ruin the sealing rubber of the jar. If necessary, wipe meat clean with a damp cloth. Do not soak it. Cut meat against the grain into 1-inch strips or chunks. Pack into the sterile jars. Cover with boiling stock or tomato juice. Never use a thickened gravy. You may add 1 teaspoon salt to each quart for seasoning. Allow 1-inch headroom. Now exhaust the air from the open filled jars by setting them on a rack in a pan of boiling water. Keep water level 2 inches below jar tops. Put a thermometer in the center of a jar, cover the pan and heat the meat slowing to 170F. If not using thermometer, heat slowly for 75 minutes. Remove jars from the pan and wipe off tops and threads of jars before lidding. Process in a pressure canner at 10 pounds pressure 75 minutes for pints and 90 minutes for quarts.

Precooking and packing meats and Poultry for canning (still JoC): Roasts, steaks, meatballs or patties and sausage cakes may be processed and canned. Use beef, veal, lamb, mutton, pork, goat or venison. To bake, heat oven to 350F. Cut the meat into pieces small enough to fit the jars. Pack closely while still hot into hot, sterile jars, at least two pieces to a pint jar. Skim fat from drippings. Add enough boiling water or broth to the drippings to cover the meat, leaving 1-inch headroom. Remove air bubbles. Wipe jar rim carefully to remove any fat. Adjust the lids and pressure-process in 10 pounds pressure, pints 75 minutes, quarts 90 minutes.

To stew, cut meat into uniform pieces about 1 pound each, drop into boiling water and simmer 12 to 20 minutes or until the raw color has disappeared at center. Liver should be simmered about 5 minutes, tongue about 45 minutes, or until skin can be removed. Cut meat into smaller serving pieces. Remove fat and gristle, then salt, pack closely in hot jars and cover with the boiling broth. Remove air bubbles, wipe rim carefully.

Frying is the least desirable method of pre-cooking. It makes the surface of the meat hard and dry and often gives an undesirable flavour to the finished product.

Meat that is not covered with liquid will discolour and lose some flavour in storage. Depending on the shape of the pieces, 1 to 1 1/2 pounds of meat will fill a pint jar and still remain submerged.

Pint jars are preferable to larger containers, as the heat penetrates more readily to the center of the container. Process pints 75 minutes, quarts 90 minutes at 10 pounds pressure.

To precook chicken, simmer meaty pieces in a broth until medium done. Cover with boiling broth, leaving 1-inch headroom. With bone, process pints 65 minutes, quarts 75 minutes at 10 pounds pressure. Without bone, process 75 and 90 minutes. Gizzards and hearts should be canned together, but separate from the meat, in boiling chicken broth. Process pints 75 minutes at 10 pounds pressure.

Chicken-Boned Steam or boil chicken until about 2/3 done. Remove skin and bones. Pack meat into hot jars, leaving 1-inch head space. Add 1/2 teaspoon salt per pint or 1 teaspoon salt per quart. Skim fat from broth. Bring broth to a boil. Pour over chicken, leaving 1-inch head space. Remove air bubbles. Adjust caps. Process pints 1 hour and 15 minutes, quarts 1 hour and 30 minutes at 10 pounds pressure.

Chicken-On-Bone Hot Pack — Boil, steam or bake chicken until about 2/3 done. If uncut chickens were cooked, searate at joints as for frying. Pack hot into hot jars, leaving 1-inch head space. Add 1/2 teaspoon salt per pint or 1 teaspoon salt per quart. Cover with boiling hot chicken broth, leaving 1-inch head space. Remove air bubbles. Process pints 1 hour and 5 minutes, quarts 1 hour and 15 minutes at 10 pounds pressure.

Raw Pack — Separate chicken at joints. Pack meat into hot jars, leaving 1-inch head space. Add 1/2 teaspoon salt per pint or 1 teaspoon salt per quart. Do not add liquid. Adjust caps. Process pints 1 hour and 5 minutes, quarts 1 hour and 15 minutes at 10 pounds pressure.

Kathy in FL – at 18:42

On another thread someone mentioned canning meat with wine. Try directions for Beef Bourguignon

It looks like a really good option. Fix some of it for dinner and can the remainder … if you can save the leftovers. <grin>

KMinFLat 19:14

Thanks Kathy,

I really appreciate everything you do. Having all of your recipies avaliable makes me feel a lot more confident.

Kathy in FL – at 19:18

BBQ Ribs

I’ve eaten the following, but never made them myself. <grin> My friend does A LOT of “meals in jars” type things and I’ll see if I can pick her brain for more recipes/ideas. Sure beats the heck out of the prices some of the freeze dried meals are going for. Definitely more bang for your buck.

Directions:

Take ribs and pack them into a wide mouth jar. Pour BBQ sauce on top and then pressure can them. When we want to have BBQ ribs I carefully pull them out and place them on my broiler tray I put them into the oven on 325 for 20–30 min. They taste excellant and are extra tender.

25 July 2006

shadddup – at 07:36

Here’s my recipe for my base Marinara that I also use to make Chicken Cacciatore:

Marinara

3T extra virgin olive oil 6oz chopped onion 2oz fresh garlic cloves, sliced in half 2 quarts home canned tomatoes 105oz (huge can) Hunts crushed tomatoes 1/4oz fresh parsley - chopped 1/4oz fresh basil - chopped 1t pepper 3T kosher salt 1t garlic powder 3lbs of fresh deboned chicken 5oz green pepper sliced into 1/2¨C3/4¡å pieces 5oz yellow peper sliced into 1/2¨C3/4¡å pieces 1 whole carrot

To make marinara: Place olive oil in bottom of pan and turn heat on low. Add chopped onion and sliced garlic and simmer slowly until onion is translucent (without browning garlic). Add home canned tomatoes, and large can of crushed tomatoes, salt, pepper, garlic powder, parsley and basil and stir well. Add peeled whole carrot and just place in marinara (the carrot helps to neutralize the acidic levels of tomatoes and adds a natural sweetness without the overpowering taste of regular sugar). Simmer on low for a few hours, stirring frequently so that bottom of pot doesn¡¯t scorch tomatoes.

After marinara is done, I cube the chicken, dust with a little salt, pepper and garlic powder and sautee (slightly browning) in a pan with extra virgin olive oil. Prepare 10 pint jars, steralizing them. Divide up equally in jars the sauteed chicken, green and yellow peppers and pour marinara over and into the pint jars, leaving 1¡å headspace. Remove air bubbles, place seal and ring on jar and process at 10lbs pressure for 90 minutes (keeping in mind to adjust the pressure according to your altitude requirements).

This can be served over cooked spaghetti or linguine¡­

Shad.

shadddup – at 07:41

Chicken Soup (and Cuban Chicken Soup) and basic ideas for canning chicken:

Chicken Soup

2 whole chickens (approx. 9lbs total) 4T kosher salt 1T peppercorns 1 large onion 3 large carrots 3 stalks celery

I put chickens in 20 quart stock pot, fill with water, add the salt and let simmer, skimming off the scum that rises to the top. Once the scum stops (this is cracking me up, trying to write out directions for something that I do by sight lol), I add the salt, peppercorns, onion, carrots and celery and simmer for a few hours (somewhere around 3¨C4). I also taste test the broth to make sure that the salt content is enough and sometimes end up adding a little more. I then strain the broth through a wire strainer placed over another pot, capturing the chickens and veggies in strainer. I then strain broth a 2nd time through cheese cloth (this is because I like a very clear and clean broth), with large spoon, skim off as much of the grease as you can or let sit overnight in the refrigerator and let it harden, peeling grease off top. I then debone and deskin all the chick and shred it into appropriate size pieces and set aside. I throw away the bones, fat, skin, veggies and peppercorns.

I then take fresh carrots, peel them and cut into about 1/4¡å slices and place in a bowl¡­when I made this on Friday I think I probably used about 8¨C10 carrots, but the amount needed depends on the size of the carrots. Take fresh celery, and chop into small pieces (I do mine about 1/4¡å square) and place into a seperate bowl. I also chop up fresh onion, placing in a third bowl. To make Cuban Chicken soup, I add a couple of packets of Sazon to the broth, cube up potatoes and put in about 1/2c cubed potatoes.

I take my quart canning jars, wash and steralize them, and into each jar I place: 1/4c chopped onion, 1/3c chopped celery, 3/4c sliced carrots, and 3/4c shredded chicken. I heat the broth up in the pot, and then pour the broth over the raw veggies, put on seals and rings, and put into my pressure canner, and process 90 minutes at 10lbs pressure. I am only at 11¡ä above sea level so it is advisable to find out the amount of pressure needed at different altitudes. When they¡¯re finished being processed, I take them out, place them on a kitchen towel on the counter and let cool over night. I then wash the jars, label and they¡¯re ready to go. Last Friday, for some reason, I ended up having extra broth, so I processed the broth in pint jars for 90 minutes at 10lbs pressure. I figure if anyone gets really sick, they¡¯re not going to necessarily want to eat chicken and carrots and such, but the nutritional value in the broth alone is priceless. When I go to serve the soup, I take some dried noodles, put them in a little pot, pour the quart over the noodles and simmer them according to the pasta directions (mine take about 5 minutes)¡­this cooks the noodles, absorbing a little of the soup into them and we have chicken noodle soup. I have found that the longer my chicken soup stays in the jar, the better it tastes for some reason. This recipe that I make myself gives me about 12 quart jars of chicken soup.

As far as canning regular chicken, I only can cubed chicken breast. I use that in things like shredded chicken tacos, burritos, pot pies, chicken divan, etc. I buy only bone-in with skin chicken breasts. I debone the chicken, remove the skin, and throw the bones and skin into a stock pot with some veggies, bay leaves and fresh garlic cloves and make a chicken broth for use in other meals. It really is much cheaper to buy bone-in with skin chicken breasts and debone them yourself. You will still come out paying less for the boneless chicken breasts, than if you had bought them already deboned¡­plus you get 2 for 1¡­canned chicken plus canned chicken broth.

Once I¡¯ve deboned the chicken breasts and cubed them into about 1¡å cubes, I place raw into hot steralized quart jars, leaving a 1¡å headspace. I ladle hot water over the chicken, put in about 3/4t of salt, remove air bubbles and place seal and ring on jars and process at 10lbs pressure for 90 minutes.

26 July 2006

mom11 – at 17:16

Hi Shad!

Is it safe to can the Chicken marsal in quarts? How far does a quart seem to go with your big family. I’m trying to figure out how many meals I will get.

Fot the canned chicken breasts, does the water have to be boiling or just very hot?

Thanks for the recipes!

Mari – at 21:30

Many years ago I had a great recipe for green tomato relish. It also had onions (but no peppers). The flavor was a little sweet and very tangy. Anybody have a recipe that tastes like that?

27 July 2006

Kathy in FL – at 10:59

Just ran across this recipe and it might be just the thing to have as a convenience and/or comfort food. It will also be a good way to use up bread that has gotten hard.

Bruchetta In A Jar

Yields: 7 - 8 oz. Jars

1. Prepare Canner, jars and lids.

2. In a large, deep stainless stell pot. combine garlic, through Balsamic vinegar. Bring to a full rolling boil over high heat, stirring occasionally. Reduce heat, cover and boil gently, for 5 minutes, until garlic is heated through. Remove from heat.

3. Pack tomatoes into the hot jars to within a generous 1/2″ if top of jar. Ladle hot vinegar mixture into jar to cover tomatoes, leaving 1/2″ headspace. Remove air bubbles and adjust headpace if needed with more liquid. Wipe rim and put lid on. Tighten to fingertip tight.

4. Place jars in canner, ensuring jars are covered with water. Bring to a full boil and process for 20 minutes. Remove canner lid and let sit 5 minutes. Take jars put and let cool the store.

Bronco Bill – at 13:11

Kathy in FL – at 10:59 --- How d’ya make “Dry White Wine”? Is there a Ronco Food Dehydrator attachment for that? ;-) <g>

Kathy in FL – at 13:14

Bronco Bill – at 13:11

OK smarty pants. I “make it” by walking into the liquor store and asking for it. LOL! I am one of those poor folks that have no taste or head for wine. I cook with it but don’t drink it. Its wasted on me. <grin>

Bronco Bill – at 13:54

ROTF!!! LOL!!! :-)

28 July 2006

EnoughAlreadyat 16:19

Because chicken has been such a “greasy” problem for me in my canning… I have been having my husband smoke it or grill it when the pit is “up and running.” (Also, brisket) Then, I have been canning it. Figure I’ve got that smoke taste, and can add BBQ sauce later. I have added BBQ sauce to some canning jars… but it is watery looking. We like the thick stuff.

I also made meatloaf and canned it. All I know is it looks a heck of a lot better (tastier) than SPAM!! We haven’t tried it yet. I used the wide mouthed jars, thank goodness! I’m not sure the meat loaves would be able to be gotten out of the jars otherwise. Well, I guess it could be spooned out. But, I keep thinking about meatloaf sandwiches!!

shadddup – at 19:18

mom11 – at 17:16

Yes, it’s safe to process the Chicken Cacciatore in quart jars for 90 minutes, I do it all the time. As far as how much a quart jar would feed, if you serve it over spaghetti, with a side salad, garlic bread, etc, I would think that it would feed a normal size family of four. My 2 sons are huge (6′6/280, 6′5/200) so it’s hard to judge by how they eat.

As far as canning plain chicken alone, yes, I use boiling water. Water boils at a specific temperature, whereas *hot* can be interpreted to be alot of varying degrees.

Mari – at 21:30

I don’t think that any of these recipes are exactly the one you’re talking about for Green Tomato Relish, but perhaps some alterations might produce the recipe you’re looking for:

PICKLED GREEN TOMATO RELISH

l0 lb. small, hard green tomatoes

l-l/2 lb. red bell peppers

l-l/2 lb. green bell peppers

2 lb. onions

l/2 cup canning or pickling salt

l qt. water

4 cups sugar

l qt. vinegar (5% acidity)

l/3 cup prepared yellow mustard

2 tbsp. cornstarch

YIELD: 7 to 9 pints

PROCEDURE: Wash and coarsely grate or finely chop tomatoes, peppers and onions. Dissolve salt in water and pour over vegetables in large kettle. Heat to boiling and simmer 5 minutes. Drain in colander. Return vegetables to kettle. Add sugar, vinegar, mustard and cornstarch. Stir to mix. Heat to boil and simmer 5 minutes. Fill hot, sterile pint jars (see directions below for sterilizing jars) with hot relish, leaving l/2-inch headspace. Adjust lids and process.

~~~~~

Mama Hall’s Green Tomato Relish

1 gallon quartered green tomatoes

4 large onions

6 tart apples

3 large bell peppers

6 serreno peppers (optional)

1/2 cup canning salt

3 cups white vinegar

2 cups sugar

1 cup water

1 tbls pickling spice

Chop the veggies like you would for coleslaw. Core apples, but do not peel. Chop fine.

Combine veggies and apple with canning salt. Let stand overnight. Drain & rinse, pressing out as much moisture as possible.

Combine vinegar, sugar, and water. Bring to boil and cook until sugar dissovles. Add pickling spice, in a cloth bag, and veggie mix. Return to boil and simmer 30 mintures.

Fill canning jars to withing 1/4 inch of top. Remove air bubbles. Adjust lids. Process in boiling water bath for 10 minutes.

Makes bout 7 pints.

~~~~~

Green Tomato Relish with Honey

Yield: 5 pints

12 green tomatoes

4 large onions

1 sweet red pepper

1 sweet green pepper

4 cups white vinegar

1 cup dark honey

1 tablespoon celery seeds

1 tablespoon mustard seeds

1 tablespoon pickling salt

Chop the tomatoes, onions and peppers coarsely. Drain. Add the remaining ingredients and mix. Cook slowly until tender, about 20 minutes. Put into clean, hot pint jars, leaving 1/2 inch headspace. Seal. Process in a BWB for 15 minutes.

Note: Time is for altitude up to 1000 feet. For 1,001–6,000 process 20 minutes, 25 minutes above 6,000. ~~~~~

Chow-Chow

Yield: 6–8 pints

16 medium-sized green tomatoes

6 medium-sized onions

6 green peppers

6 sweet red peppers

1 medium-sized head cabbage

1/4 cup pickling salt

2 tablespoons prepared mustard

6 cups white vinegar

2 1/2 cups sugar

2 tablespoons mustard seeds

1 1/2 teaspoons turmeric

1 teaspoon powdered ginger

1 tablespoon celery seeds

1 tablespoon mixed pickling spices tied in a cheesecloth bag

With a knife, coarsely chop all vegetables. Combine and mix with the salt. Let stand overnight. The next morning drain, discarding the liquid. Put the prepared mustard in a large kettle and gradually blend in the vinegar, sugar, mustard seeds, turmeric, ginger and celery seeds.

Simmer for 2 minutes. Strain, then add the chopped vegetables and spice bag. Simmer for another 10 minutes. Remove the cheesecloth spice big. Pack the vegetables immediately into clean, hot pint jars, leaving 1/2-inch headspace. Be sure the liquid covers the vegetables in the jars. Seal. Process 10 minutes in a BWB.

Note: 15 minutes 1,001–6,000, 20 minutes above 6000. ~~~~~

Shad.

anonymous – at 19:31

shadddup – at 19:18 - Thanks! I’d better experiment a bit with a small batch intended for fresh eating to see what tastes best to me. Maybe I can find the recipe somewhere.

Mari – at 19:36

The last “anonymous” was me - cleaned those cookies right out of there! (I’ve always wondered, are they chocolate chip? with pecans?)

13 August 2006

Pat in AZ – at 14:56

Came across this recipe for pickled jalapenos — looks good, I don’t have equipment to can yet, but I plan to make this when I do:

Using fresh mild Jalapeno peppers, blanch peppers for 3 minutes in boiling water. To prevent collapsing, puncture each pepper. Add the following ingredients to a pint jar packed with the blanched peppers before cooling occurs.

  1/4 medium-sized garlic clove
1/4 teaspoon of onion flakes
1 small or medium bay leaf
1/8 teaspoon of ground oregano
1/8 teaspoon of thyme leaf (not seed)
1/8 teaspoon of marjoram
1 tablespoon of vegetable oil (olive, refined sesame, corn) Cover with boiling brine solution prepared as follows: Mix together: 3 tablespoons sugar
9 tablespoons salt
2 pints water
2 pints vinegar (5 percent)

Close the containers and process 10 minutes in boiling water, then cool.

Note: Jalapenos must be hot when brine solution is added. The addition of carrot slices adds color to the product.

Here’s the nutrition info from the site where I found it, from Texas Cooperative Extension:

Peppers are the right food for people seeking a healthy, nutritious diet. Low in calories, high in Vitamins A and C, peppers are also high in a very important mineral—potassium. One cup of raw sweet green peppers contains 22 calories. For comparison a cup of cucumber is 16, cottage cheese is 223 and whole orange is about 41 calories.

A red sweet or hot pepper contains about ten times more vitamin A and double the amount of Vitamin C than an immature green pepper. A 100 gram serving of red hot peppers eaten raw contains 369 milligrams of Vitamin C. The same serving size of sweet raw green pepper contains 128 milligrams, about one third less.

Whether green or red a pepper contains more Vitamin C than a whole orange which contains only about 50 milligrams. For potassium rich foods, an average banana contains 370 milligrams and a cup of green sweet pepper has 213 mg raw and 149 mg if boiled before being eaten.

14 August 2006

MIch mom – at 10:37

I have run across wb sites that talk about canning butter, the university of mich says this is not a safe practice. Then I found to store butter you put it in a crock that contains one cup of salt to one gallon of water and sink the butter in this mix, place in a cool place and it will keep for a long time. What do you think?

Hillbilly Bill – at 13:03

For those of you (like me) who have put off canning for the past few months because it has been just too darned hot, make sure you get your supplies now so you will be ready. I see jars and jar lids everywhere, but that may not be the case in a month or two.

I plan to “put up” lots of ground beef in a couple of different ways as well as lots more chili. Not only does it make for great preps, but it is also really handy for quick meals.

Bump – at 16:12

17 August 2006

Northstar – at 13:11

Hawaiian Pork

In a very large pot combine:

1 large can (46 oz) tomato or V8 type juice

1 large bottle (46 oz) pineapple juice

4 cans chunk pineapple and juice

About a dozen large multi-colored bell peppers, red/yellow/orange/green, sliced

About a half dozen big summer tomatoes, scalded, skinned and coarsely chopped

3 to 4 large sweet onions, sliced

1 cup brown sugar

1/2 cup lemon or lime juice

3 heaping tablespoons fresh grated ginger root (roots freeze well and are then easily grated.)

One whole pork loin, about 5 lbs meat, grill roasted and then cubed. (If you can use a little wood while roasting for a smoky taste, all the better.)

Combine all ingredients and heat until just boiling. Fill hot jars, packing with a plastic spoon, as vegetables will soften and take up less space as it processes. Process for 1 1/2 hours in a pressure canner at 10 lbs or pressure recommended for your elevation. Makes 10–12 quarts.

Serve over a platter of rice.

Home recipe: not USDA tested.

Kathy in FL – at 13:23

Thanks Northstar! I’ve been considering buying a large pork ham like I do at Christmas (for Spanish Pork) but was wondering if it was worth the expense. This will be a great way for me to use the leftovers.

Northstar – at 14:40

You’re welcome! Can you give me an idea of what you do for a Spanish Ham? That sounds good, and I’ve only ever done the brown sugar-clove-ginger thing.

Kathy in FL – at 14:48

Northstar – at 14:40

What I do is buy a “raw” ham shoulder or butt. I mean raw, no curing at all as in it is fresh from the butcher.

Then I marinate the ham in naranja agria … sour oranges. You can buy a ready made marinade at the grocery around here. Or, you can use sour oranges fresh from the tree. Sour oranges aren’t the same as sweet oranges … they are the “old” oranges that have thorns on the branches and which are usually used as “stock” for grafting.

Or you can use a combination or lemon juice and olive oil.

You also need plenty of garlic.

Marinade for 24 to 48 hours depending on the size of the ham. Then put the whole mess in the oven and cook the ham in the marinade.

Makes for very tender and tasty pork. Some people don’t want to take the time to cook a full ham so they will buy loins and do the same thing … but I usually wind up using the ham bone for other things as well as needing the size of the ham to feed the crew at Christmas.

Serve with yellow rice, black beans, cuban bread and have flan or something similar for dessert.

18 August 2006

Northstar – at 09:14

Oh! That sounds great! I grew up in Florida but left when I was a kid… a lot of my recipes still have that tropical bent, though. (s) Thanks!

19 August 2006

EnoughAlreadyat 00:46

I haven’t seen anybody mention this, and if so I appologize. Cantaloupes are just such a good buy right now. I sliced pieces as thin as possible and dehydrated until like a crisp chip. I was pleased with the results! It is an unusual taste, and a nutritious and sweet treat. My 8 yo grandson even liked them! I wouldn’t sit around eating this like I do cantaloupe, but it sure might come in handy. Two very large cantaloupes dried up to about 2 cups worth. Also, I think this might be one of those “cure hunger pangs” solutions. It takes some chewing (a hunger pang deal) and promotes salivation which cuases rehydration… in your mouth. I got a little piece hung in my tooth… which grew with time (how I discovered it). I thought, “Hey, this could be a nice treat if SHTF.” This takes about 24 hours.

I have noticed lemons and limes are on sale everywhere I shop. Some places are almost giving them away. I have been slicing them into thin rings, peeling and all, and dehydrating them. The white pulp actually has some medicianl value. The rind can be used as zest. The fruit itself can be used to clean… even refresh mouth. Mostly, I plan to put these in jars out in the sun (like solar tea… but not just in tea) for various drinks. I am finding citrus takes a long time to dehydrate.

Malachi – at 09:07

A friend gave me a #10 can of salsa verde green salsa….Can I just repack into pints and recan this stuff?Also ,How long beyond the use by date can the uht milk go?She gave me 10 quarts of it with yesterdays date on it.

Milo – at 09:19

I have a bottle of balsamic vinegar that seems to have mold inside it, floating on the surface of the vinegar. I assume it’s no good — I’m certainly not going to risk it for a few dollars worth of balsamic vinegar, but has anyone ever heard of anything like this. I would have thought that vinegar wasn’t able to mold. And if it’s not mold, what is it?

Milo – at 09:28

Oh, I was going to add something like “this probably isn’t the right thread for a question like this, but . . .”

But I forgot. This seemed the most appropriate thread.

Northstar – at 10:24

Milo, what you probably have there is “Mother of Vinegar.” Like you, I thought vinegar was an end state, but it’s not… vinegar is produced by a microorganisim, and sometimes enough persists to start up growth again. The only reason I know all this is I had Mother develop in some infrequently used apple cider vinegar, and had an immediate, violent, life-threatening allergic reaction to cake baked with it, akin to a penicillin reaction. The rest of my family ate the cake with absolutely no ill effects. (But I’d toss it if I were you.)

Milo – at 10:37

Northstar — Thanks! Mystery solved.

lohrewok – at 10:51

Mother of vinegar (google it) can be a very useful thing to have. I remember Jeff Smith (frugal gourmet anyone?) going on and on about it. You can use it to make wine and to start off your own vinegars.

Malachi – at 10:54

Malachi – at 09:07 A friend gave me a #10 can of salsa verde green salsa….Can I just repack into pints and recan this stuff?Also ,How long beyond the use by date can the uht milk go?She gave me 10 quarts of it with yesterdays date on it.

07 October 2006

Kathy in FL – at 16:33

Great directions for canning plain meat

I’ve been looking for more recipes that are like casseroles in a jar … or some such anyway. I’ve found a few, but not many. Mostly the recipes online that I’ve found are for fruits and veggies.

I’m looking for more meat-based recipes … anyone want to add some more to this thread?

Northstar – at 18:26

I’ve got a great bratwurst and sweet pepper stew I’m dying to try out; if it works I’ll post it up. Until then, here’s a recipe for instant cream of potato soup:

Instant Potato Soup

2 C mashed potato flakes

1 C dry milk

4 tsp granulated chicken boullion

1/8 C dried minced onion

1/2 tsp pepper

Makes 1 dry quart

Mix 1/2 c dry mix to 1 scant C water for a single serving.

Average Concerned Mom – at 21:29

Northstar! I’ve been wondering about you — did you ever decide to buy that house? )Sorry if I missed it).

Northstar – at 21:35

ACM! I’ll post up over on the dream thread…

Arklatex – at 23:40

kathy-I have a good recipe for beef vegetable soup if you are interested. I am at work now so don’t have recipe with me.

You may have posted the copy cat hamburger helper, however, I have canned alot of HB in pints to use for the HB helper. Should be easy quick meals if needed.

If you like beef tips in rice, I take a quart of canned beef chucks, drain, mix with can of mushroom soup and serve over noodles or rice, wonderful.

08 October 2006

Northstar – at 10:58

Arklatex: I read your post as “cat hamburger helper” and it gave me pause for a second… but hey, I’m open to anything! Prepper here!

Kathy in FL – at 15:30

Northstar – at 10:58

I think they meant “copy cat hamburger helper.” ROFL!!!!

OK … that made me feel tons better. <snicker>

I start a marathon round of canning tomorrow. I’m also going to try and figure out how to can Garbanzo bean soup (I’m worried about the potato texture more than anything else) and Ropa Viejo. Canned Picadillo would be nice too. <grin>

cactus – at 16:11
  I`ve been on a dehydrating marathon. Fun.
 Is it possible to dehydrate potatoes, like for hash browns?
 Can I grate, briefly parboil, then dehydrate?
Northstar – at 19:35

Kathy: Darn, and I was thinking I was finally going to have some recipes if it came down to Princess, Emma and a box of noodles… ;-)

Speaking of garbanzo beans, I’ve just discovered Indian cooking… I’m trying to come up with my own recipes for the expensive ‘Kitchens of India” ready to eat stuff that’s been blowing my mind recently. There’s Rajma Masala made with kidney beans and Pindi Chana made with garbanzos. No more boring beans! This stuff is fantastic! I should have recipes in a couple days.

For the garbanzo bean soup… you are using redskin potatoes, aren’t you? (I assume in chunks not mashed as a thickener.)

Northstar – at 19:43

cactus, maybe it’s cheating but dehydrated hash browns are available at meijer’s for a buck fifty a box. Prolly less on sale. Aldi’s has great varieties of dehydrated scalloped potatoes (try the Jalapeno) for 79 cents. I’m hooked — add some sausage and broccoli and it’s dinner. I’ll never go back to not having prep foods.

Arklatex – at 19:51

Northstar-I’m with you on the dehydrated potatoes. Our Super One Grocery has Betty Crocker Dehydrated potatoes for $1/box this week limit 10, I’m going back for the third time. Love the hash browns.

cactus – at 20:25
  I know, but fresh potatoes aren`t expensive, and one 10 pound sack wpuld make a lot of hash browns, and I would know what was in them. ie no preservatives.
Kathy in FL – at 20:30

cactus – at 20:25

I dehydrate shredded potatoes all the time. Its not that hard, just be careful not to “burn” them by over drying like you can with some really small items.

Kathy in FL – at 20:31

Northstar – at 19:35

Actually the recipe calls for a Yukon gold type potato … not a red skin. That’s part of the problem I think. I may just make a batch, try it, and if the potatoes get too mushy try something else.

shadddup – at 21:33

When I can recipes that call for potatoes, I put the potatoes in raw…that way they cook during the processing and I’ve never had a problem.

Shad.

09 October 2006

EnoughAlreadyat 01:25

I dehydrated 32 oz of plain yogurt today. Anybody else dehydrated yogurt? I wanted a yogurt starter. I’ve been looking around on the internet and found some powdered yogurt… for a pretty penney. Figured if they could do it… I could try to do it. So far, it looks like parchment paper. I don’t see why I need to go to the trouble of making powder out of this… is there a reason?

Big Lots had 6# 6.5oz cans of diced tomatoes today for $1.99 I’m not sure what to do with this. It’s too big to open in an emergency situation. But, it’s such a good buy. I’ve thought about just dehydrating the tomatoes. I thought about making salsa, tomato soup or even canning them in pints. Do you think they’d be to “processed” if I canned them into smaller containers? Freezing in smaller portions isn’t an option because of possible power outages. Thanks.

EnoughAlreadyat 01:33

Roast Pork For Cuban Sandwiches http://icuban.com/food/cuban_sandwich.html

Mash the garlic and salt together with a mortar and pestle. (A rolling pin on a cutting board works pretty good too.)

Add dried oregano, onion and the sour orange to the mash and mix thoroughly. Heat oil in small sauce pan, add the mash to the oil and whisk.

Pierce pork roast as many times as you can with a sharp knife or fork. Pour garlic mixture (save a little for roasting) over pork, cover and let sit in refrigerator for two to three hours.

Using a suitable roasting pan or rack, sprinkle remaining marinade over pork and cook uncovered at 325°F. Roast until completely cooked (160°F), about 20 minutes per pound. Baste occasionally. Bring pan juices to a boil and simmer until the juice is reduced by half. Sprinkle some juice onto the pork when you put it in the sandwich.

Roast a Pig like a Pro- WARNING, graphic pig gutting images

http://cuban-christmas.com/pigroast.html

Genoa – at 02:27

EnoughAlready - at 01:33

The recipe for roast pork for Cuban sandwiches looks great. Do you think this could be canned, as well? If so, how would you do it?

Madamspinner – at 02:44

Canning it ?

I’d just “pull “ it, and pack it ( not too tight) into pint (?) jars, and process as for any other meat… Yummm….now it makes me want to make a batch of tamales…these would be the perfect meat to put in them, too.

Bump – at 11:52
Kathy in FL – at 14:01

[Note: the following recipe can also be converted to any type of seasoned meatloaf, just don’t put any eggs in there. For instance, I used the “meatloaf seasoning” packets that I got from the grocery rather than doing the seasoning from scratch. Worked just fine.]

Canned Meatloaf

(also know that you can season this any way you want to)

Mix all this up; stuff it in a jar raw, wipe, cap, band and Process quarts for 90 minutes at 10 lbs. When you get ready to prepare, open, drain, slide loaf out of jar; cover with ketsup; place under boiler until warm and ketsup is baked on (about 5 - 10 min), slice and serve.

 If I’m in a real big hurry I just slice and heat in the microwave and use barbecue sauce on it.
Kathy in FL – at 14:06

(Starts with the crockpot and then you can it)

Sausage and Kraut

Place sauerkraut in colander, rinse with cold water, drain and squeeze dry. Place in a large mixing bowl. Add brown sugar, diced apple, and onion. Sprinkle with minced garlic. Add sliced sausage. Mix together. Spray crockpot with Pam and add the mixture. I cooked it on high for 2 hours, then low for 3–4 more. (Or you can cook on Low for 6–8 hours (depending on temp of YOUR pot).

NOTES: I stirred again halfway through, but it probably isn’t necessary. As always, I have to caution you to watch it the first time you make it because of the difference in temperatures of all our crockpots. This does NOT have a LOT of liquid in it (because it was squeezed out), so watch it the first time and adjust your squeezing accordingly.

Can it using the method and times for the ingredient requiring the longest processing time, which would be the meats. Pints 75 minutes and quarts 90 minutes at 10 pounds pressure (as per BBB for spareribs, sausage, etc.)

Kathy in FL – at 14:07

Turkey a la king to can

Cut the turkey into pieces. Place in large pot with 3 quarts water and cook until tender. Cool, remove meat from bones and cut into small pieces. Dissolve flour and salt in a little of the cold broth to make a paste and add to the remainder of the quart of broth which has been heated. Cook until slightly thickened, stirring to keep free of lumps. Add mushrooms, peppers, and black pepper. Heat to boiling and fill clean canning jars to within one inch of the top of the jar. Wipe jar rim clean with damp cloth. Place hot, previously boiled lid on and screw down ring firmly tight. Process in pressure canner for 90 minutes at 10 pounds unless your altitude requires more pressure. (See your canning manual for directions.) When you heat this up, it will be thick, and you may now add milk to your taste.

10 October 2006

Cinda – at 12:51

Kathy and all,

I have a meat pie I make and was wondering if you all thought I’d be able to make up a big batch of the filling and pressure can it without it getting moocky-mucky? It has browned gound meat, saute’d cabbage, canned diced tomatoes, allspice and Thyme. I’ve read where some spices don’t react well to pressure canning. Do you all think I could can that mixture and not have it taste funny or breakdown too much?

I have only ever canned just meat with some broth - and recently tried canning chile. much of the liquid from the chile somehow got out of the jars. I had the canner running just right and the proper amount of headspace. Does anyone know what might have happened? It sealed and tastes fine- just a bit dry so I added some tomatoe sauce when I heated it up. I would like to know what you all think before I attempt to can my meat pie fillling.

 Oh and of you want to try it:

1lb-ish ground meat- whatever you have or a combo or I guess finely chopped would do fine too. 1 small or 1/2 larger head green cabbage chopped 1/2″ to 1″ pieces 1 can diced tomatoes (I use the roasted garlic flavored ones but what ever you have will be fine I’m sure) drained but hold onto the juice in case your mixture is too dry. 1 tsp allspice, 1 tsp dried thyme

Brown the meat drain most of the dripping if there are any and set aside. Saute the chopped cabbage in the bit of dripping left- add oil or butter if needed, till just starting to get tender. Mix back in the meat, the tomatoes and the spices, simmer about 10 minutes to blend and remove from heat to cool a bit. If it looks too dry add back some of the tomato juice- but not too much or it’ll seep through the crust.

You can use your own piecrust- I use the PB ready to bake ones for this cause they’re fast and easy. you can make 2 sizes. If you have a large family and want to make a large pie put the 2 crusts together one on top the other and roll out to about 15–18inches, or if you are just 2 or 3 you can use them alone and make 2 pies (one to freeze!)

lightly grease a cookie sheet and place the crust on the pan. Spoon the cooled filling onto the center of the crust and draw up/fold up edges leaving a hole in the center. The lg pie would probably have a 3–4 inch wide hole and the smaller on 2–3 inches. The small one usually winds up looking like a pentagon. Bake at 375 about 20–25 minutes or till browned to your liking. This is great with garlic mashed potatoes and spaghetti squash!

I’ll appreciate everyones advice on this as I really wnat to do it- I usually freeze it but I’m not so much into freezers anymore ya know!!!

Kathy in FL – at 22:47

Cinda, your filling sounds fine. The only seasoning I know of to be careful with canning is sage … it goes bitter.

Sounds great.

11 October 2006

anonymous – at 08:47

Kathy- thanks so much- it is now on my list of to-dos for today. I browned the beef last night and froze it awaiting a reply from the gang here. You are all wonderfull and I am learning a lot about more than basic canning. So- do you or does anyone- have a recipe for swedish meatballs in gravy that can be canned? Or does cream gravy not can well? I thought that would be a great easy thing to have on my shelf for those late work -there was an accident on rt 24 and my commute time doubled days- just boil up some egg noodles, heat up the swedish meatballs and you have dinner in about 10 minutes.

another preservation question- has anyone made up any home-made “stove top stuffing”

Thanks to all

Kathy in FL – at 09:25

anonymous – at 08:47

You can can meatballs, but not the cream gravy. I know I’ve seen something though that you can put around the meatballs and then just add the “cream” part. Let me piddle around in my recipe cards and see what I can come up with.

I’ll also see if I can find a copy cat recipe for stove top stuffing … but have a busy day ahead of me so might not get back with you until tomorrow.

Cinda – at 10:12

That’s great Kathy, Tomorrow would be fine- no ruch- I’ll make the meatballs and freeze them raw till I hear from you all. Thanks so much- I have quite a day ahead too, Actually I called in to my “real” job so I could get a ton of coking and canning done today. When it piles up it’s all I can think about and I get all stressed out. I can’t see having any “leisure” time on my hands if this thing happens and supply chains break down!

Northstar – at 11:34

Hmmm, Kathy, would you happen to know if one could can Cream of Mushroom Soup (out of the can) over swedish meatballs ans get good results? All this talk of Swedish Meatballs sounds so good!

Malachi – at 11:44

Grape Juice…..

2 cups grapes per 1/2 gallon jars,washed ,sorted and stemmed Pour boiled light syrup over grapes and fill to 1/2 inch….

Hot bath 20 min quarts and pints….30 min 1/2 gallons

Adjust to taste upon serving with added water.This is a concentrate…

I used concord grapes but you could use whatever is availabe..

Tomo – at 12:03

Kathy, I noticed that your turkey a la king has flour in it. It was my understanding that you are not suppose to use flour in canning? I would love to try this recipie but the flour makes me nervous. by the way, THANKS for all your wonderful recipies and hard work!

Kathy in FL – at 12:15

Tomo – at 12:03

A small amount of flour is find to cook with. In fact a previous edition of the Ball’s Blue Book had recipes in it that included flour.

Ok … I may get fried for this but to me food regulations are good, but they shouldn’t be a religious experience. <grin> I know people that refuse to can with any kind of thickeners … clearjel included … just because of “what if.” Yet people have been doing some of this for generations.

A small amount of thickener is fine … but don’t get something so thick that your heat can’t evenly distribute through the jar, nor so thick that the heat will “coagulate” it in the jar.

There are legitimate reasons for not getting the contents of a jar too thick … but in my experience, a minor amount of a thickener is not going to be a problem.

But as always, your choice. There are probably other recipes for chicken a la king out there that would address this concern.

Kathy in FL – at 12:20

Northstar – at 11:34

I’ve heard of people using the canned cream of mushroom soup around ground beef … but not around the meatballs. But I know I’ve seen something someplace. I’m on a couple of canning groups that I’ll email as well.

Tomo – at 12:45

Kathy, thanks. You would think that being a food scientist in a family of food scientists canning at home would be easy. Sometimes too much knowlege makes it harder. I’ve only just started pressure canning and have to tell you I’m still a bit nervous. I know just how many things can go wrong and how bad the consequences would be. Now, If I could put it in a 2 piece can and through a retort with a temp/pressure recorder…

12 October 2006

Kathy in FL – at 09:32

Cinda – at 10:12

Here is a copycat recipe for you for stove top stuffing. I’ll post the Swedish meatball canning directions in just a minute.

Stove Top Like Stuffing

Ingredients:

Mix:

To Prepare:

Directions:

Combine mix ingredients; store in airtight container.

To prepare, combine broth and butter in saucepan. Heat until melted and hot. Stir in stuffing mix; remove from heat and cover tightly. Let stand for 5 minutes. Fluff with a fork before serving.

This recipe for Stove Top-Like Stuffing Mix serves/makes 8 cups

Kathy in FL – at 09:50

Not all of these are the traditional Swedish meatballs, but I’ve included them because of graphics or great directions.

Lazyboy’s Meatballs - this one uses BBQ sauce

The following is a copy of a post from one of the big canning groups … gives some good ideas:

“For loose ground beef I go ahead and season and sauce it as for sloppy joes, chili, or taco meat, but I find we use more of the meatballs than anything else — except for chicken. When I started to can the ground meat as meatballs, they got a real positive reaction. You’d have thought I had just invented food!

I don’t think the meatballs in the jar are all that unattractive, but I do think that my chicken in the jars (off the bone) is very nice looking. I do meatballs in quarts, but I make large meatballs. If I made melon-baller sized ones, pints might just work fine for them. I use boiling water with a bit of the pan drippings for the liquid, and haven’t done the tomato sauce. Sometimes I serve the meatballs in a sour cream sauce (my ignorant version of Swedish meatballs), and sometimes (rarely) in a sweet and sour Hawaiian-kinda thing.”

Below is a generic recipe for canning meatballs:

BASIC MEATBALLS

In large bowl combine first 6 ingredients. Add beef, mix well. Shape into 12 dozen 1-inch meatballs. Place in shallow baking pan. Bake at 425 degrees for 15 minutes. Pack loosely into hot jars, leaving 1-inch headspace. Add boiling water or meat juice, leaving 1-inch headspace. Adjust lids. Process in pressure canner at 10 pounds pressure, 75 minutes for pints, 90 minutes for quarts. Makes 8 pints. REMEMBER THE ALTITUDE ADJUSTMENT IF NECESSARY!

Kathy in FL – at 10:28

Any of y’all ever canned citrus juice? In the Ball Blue Book there are instructions for grapefruit juice but was wondering if orange juice is the same thing.

I do know that I’m probably going to try and can some frozen juice concentrate if I can find it on sale. I’ll thaw it and then can it just like regular fruit juice. Seems a reasonable experiment.

If things hold off until after the first of the year I should be able to get all the ruby red grapefruits that I could want from the tree in our front yard. Tree doesn’t have as much fruit as in year’s passed, but still more than we would eat raw. I figure I’ll juice the remainder as I can and then preserve it in quart jars.

Cinda – at 13:43

Kathy, Thanks for the “stove top” recipe. I’m psyched because I like to put all different breads in my stuffing (I always freeze bread leftovers that are going tough and use them for my stuffing) and we have one of those day old discount bread stores right onmy way home from work. I can rip up bread tonight while watching CSI!!!! and tuck it into the dehydrator before bed!

I know you can buy grapefruit sections canned in the store- so I would think you should be able to do it at home too. I wouldn’t think the juice would be too far off of the recipe for the sections.Glad you mentioned it because now when I see a bunch of them on the markdown rack I’m going to try it. Also- then maybe it wouldn’t be as sweet as the storebought canned ones. I have to rinse them off before I can eat them. I’ll be glad if your experiment works!

17 October 2006

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 15:48

OK, I’m canning today, first time in probably 5 years .. my canner checked out so I prepared my jars I reread my manual 3 times. I filled it with 3 quarts of water then put my jars in. Now I feel uneasy because for some reason, I thought I was supposed to submerge the jars — cover them in water — is only 3 quarts enough as is stated in my manual??

I’m doing pinto beans in quart jars — 11 lbs pressure for 90 minutes is all the instructions I could find.

Someone reassure me that 3 quarts of water is enough???

Kim – at 16:15

I’m workin on it, for pressure canning that’s all the water you need. If you are doing hot water bath canning then you need to cover the jars with water.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 16:29

Well, then that’s where that odd feeling came from because the last time I canned I did both pressure canning and water bath so I DID cover SOME jars at one time — I was just getting the process mixed up in my memory. Thanks for reassuring me! I’m not expecting these to come out tasting good — rather old bag of beans & I used regular salt, ‘cause I forgot to get any canning salt & apparently I’m supposed to use that.

When I started canning years ago, my dad got sick & eventually died, and by then I had to keep a closer watch on my mom and I just never got back to it till now and my memory is a lot shorter now!! :-)

Hillbilly Bill – at 16:30

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 15:48

I just make sure that the water comes up between 2/3 and 3/4 of the way to the top of the jars. That’s how my Mom taught me and it works just fine.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 16:33

Hmmm….with only 5 jars in, it didn’t displace that much water so they were only about 1/2 to 1/3 covered….wonder if I should shorten the canning time because of that?

Cinda – at 21:01

My All american pressure canner manual says to put 1.5 inches of water in the bottom. There’s no way that comes up to half way or 3/4 of the way up the jars. I always thought it didn’t sound right. Does anyone else here can with an all american?

Cinda – at 21:04

2nd question kathy, in the “stove top” stuffing recipe- do you think I could put some chicken boullion granuals, or a cube crushed up, and some butter powder in place of the broth and butter when preparing so that when I prepare it to serve I could just add water?

EnoughAlreadyat 23:27

Kathy… I’ve been trying to figure out how to “can juice”, too. I don’t remember anybody (g’ma, great aunts, etc) who canned juice. I’ve almost decided to try to dehydrate a can of juice concentrate to see how it comes out! (I’m test-dehydrating minature marshmallows right now.)

Apple juice… http://www.uga.edu/nchfp/how/can_02/apple_juice.html

Grape juice… http://www.uga.edu/nchfp/how/can_02/grape_juice.html

Tons of recipes here, not juice… http://www.pickyourown.org/allaboutcanning.htm

18 October 2006

Tomo – at 16:49

OK guys, I’m ready to start trying out some new recipes. Thanks for all the inspiration.

A couple of quick questions:

I want to can pork, country style ribs that I’ll dice 1″ cubes. I’d like to try it two ways. one with bbq sauce, one with saurkraut. Can I raw pack or do I need to cook first? Can I use store bought bbq sauce? should I drain the kraut first then add back boiling water to top off? Thanks for your help on this.

Northstar, did you ever try any of those indian dishes? I’d love to add a little spice to the meals!

shadddup – at 19:12

Kathy in FL ~

As you said, some people are going to disagree, and I’m one of them lol…

I’ve researched ad infinitum home canning using thickeners. I’ve even talked with the USDA about it. Not that any of that means anything other than I wanted to find a reliable and viable source to support using thickeners during canning so that I could rest assured it was safe for me to do too.

What flours and other thickeners (other than Clear Jel) does during the pressure process is interfere with the pressure and heat filtering through the jars while in the canner.

Yes many people have done this/that or the other over the years, but it doesn’t mean that it’s safe or advisable. I’ve home canned thousands of jars of foods, and right now am canning 540lbs of apples I just brought back from Northern Georgia into pie filling, sauce, spiced, etc. I’ve done thousands of jars of tomatoes, etc etc etc…the point is, that is how *I* can…big time volume. With all the canning I’ve done over the years, flours, corn starches, etc (things that are thickeners) is not something I’d personally do, nor advocate. It’s simple to add thickeners during the heating up process when you take it out to eat, and insure that your home canned product is reliable and safe vs. taking a chance with something that slows down a pressure/heat process that is vital to its safety.

As a side note, I read where you liked leaner cuts of hamburger because it will leave less grease in the jar after processing. That is true. Beyond that though is it is natural that some juices may escape through the seal during processing, which is normal, and which is why you’ll see bits and pieces or discoloration in your water. Grease will prohibit a seal so the it is advisable to use lean ground beef or to rinse it under hot water after cooking (before making any meal or placing in the jars). Not only will grease interfere with a seal, but it an above normal amount of grease will also cause the product to go rancid much quicker.

As with all things, these are personal choices, but many times there’s 2 sides to a coin. For me personally, with the volumes of home canning I do on a weekly basis, I don’t want to bother taking certain risks when I’m working so hard to create a long term storage product. For me, it feels like a waste of my time and energy to push the envelope in this area.

I tend to push the envelopes in other areas though, I will confess.

0:)

Shad.

Tomo – at 19:23

Shaddup, Our local store has pork country ribs, boneless on great sale along with pork shoulder roast. I’d love to can up a bunch and take advantage of the good prices. any good recipe ideas?

Northstar – at 21:27

Tomo, I tossed the Rajma Masala recipe up on the usual recipes thread… it turned out great, but got kind of lost with a burst of other posts. I just did the Pindi Chana and it is wonderful, too. Here it is: (and goodbye boring beans!)

Pindi Chana

1 30oz can of garbanzo beans (chickpeas) drained

1 onion, fine dice

1 large potato, 1/2″ dice

1 15 oz can stewed tomatoes (I use the “with onions, peppers” kind)

1 Tbs sesame tahini (similar enough to peanut butter if no allergies to worry about)

2/3 of a 15 oz can refried beans

saute oil

shake of garlic powder

2 quarter-sized ginger root slices, cut into matchsticks

1/2 the contents of a teabag

2 tsp curry powder

1 tsp cayenne pepper

Saute onion and ginger root; then add tomatoes, potatoes and about 1/3 c water for simmering. Cook until potatoes are almost done, about 15–20 minutes. Add chickpeas, refried beans and spices, simmer until flavors are well blended. Serve over toast or rice.

This is very hearty fare; I’ve found a cupful will last me all afternoon with no hunger. I think a can of peas in there would be a great variation, but then it wouldn’t be offical pindi chana, probably. (s) I’m just a beginner at Indian cooking but it is just awesome. How did I miss it before?

A dried hummus mix would be a great substitute for both the refried beans and the sesame tahini — there’s some available in the international section at my Meijers.

shadddup – at 21:38

Tomo ~

There are several things you can do with the pork. With the country ribs, you can can them with bbq sauce. The Blue Ball canning book has a recipe:

Spareribs

Crack ribs evenly, cooking until about 1/2 done. Remove bones (you said your ribs were already boneless). Cut meat into squares. Add 1/2t salt to each pint jar, 1t salt to quart jars if desired (not mandatory). Pack hot ribs into hot jars, leaving 1″ headspace. Ladle hot bbq sauce or broth over meat, leaving 1″ headspace. Remove air bubbles. Adjust 2 piece caps. Process pints 1 hour 15 minutes and quarts 1 hour 30 minutes at 10lbs pressure (or whatever pressure is recommended for your altitude).

With the pork shoulder roast, you could make homemade sausuage with that (that’s what I do alot) and mix that with a marinara to can. Or you can cube up the roast, trying to get as much of the fat out as possible and then add a hot broth or water and process that for the same amount of time…pints 1 hour 15 minutes, quarts 1 hour 30 minutes. Later, you can take your pork and make a meal out of it. I guess cause I’m in a major apple mode what comes to mind for me with home canned pork chunks is to drain them from the jar, sautee in a little olive oil with shallots or onions and minced garlic, then take some spiced apples and simmer. There’s a ton of things you can do with things like that, or you can make a meal from the roast in bbq sandwich meat with sauce, etc.

Let me know if you need some more ideas, and I’ll do some more thinking…I have a 16qt pot full of mushy apples I hafta process into apple sauce so I’ll think while I do that…lol

Shad.

Tomo – at 23:15

Shad, your commitment to cooking and canning is admirable!

I have the ball book and saw that recipe. I’d rather not take the time to make bbq sauce, can I use store bought? I can cook them half way and hot pack them in the hot sauce.

I have a great pulled pork recipe, is there any reason that I can’t can that? It is about the consistency of sloppy joe filling. There’s cumin, garlic powder, salt, oregano, diced tomatoes, ketchup, onion, vinegar, molasses, and hot sauce.

Yes, I’d love any other ideas you may have.

side note, is there any reason to not use curry powder or paste as a flavoring in canned meat dishes?

Thanks for all the help and inspiration! Happy apple canning! You’d love it around here, apples EVERYWHERE in the pacific NW!

19 October 2006

Genoa – at 01:47

Tomo,

I’ll leave it to those more experienced/knowledgeable about canning to answer your last question. However, I couldn’t resist posting to ask whether you would share your pulled pork recipe? It sounds great.

beehiver – at 11:02

We have canned many jars of grape juice from muscadine and scuppernong grapes. They are a large-sized grape that grows easily in the southeastern U.S., and they yield a lot of excellent juice. The product cans up well and retains good flavor for a long time. Once the jar is opened and then refrigerated, it will develop small crystals of tartaric acid in the bottom of the jar, that is the only drawback. We just drain the liquid off carefully and dump the crystals.

When canning, we smash and briefly pre-cook the grapes in a large pot to release the juice…then strain and squeeze out the juice through clean nylon paint-strainer bags, and reheat to boiling point and can it up. Sugar is optional, we leave it out.

Cinda – at 11:44

Tomo- I would love to have your recipe for pulled pork. I was wondering the same things myself about canning it. Though my meat pie filling came out great. I’m really getting addicted to the whole canning idea, beyond just plain meats. It’s SO easy to come home- heat the oven- pull out a piecrust and open a jar and fill it and pop it in the oven. It’s still completely homemade- but wow- what a break after a long day.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 12:25

Cinda, I can’t believe that your instructions say 1.5 inches of water in your canner! WOW! But at least yours says SOMEthing, my manual doesn’t say anything at all.

Well, I did make certain the water went up 1/2 way up my jars of pintos and they all turned out just fine.

I hadn’t seasoned them other than a little bit of salt, so I used the one jar I’d opened the first day of canning and mixed it with some Savory Sides mixed veggies in spicy sauce, and they were great! Really stretched that one can into a 4 meal side dish.

I noticed the second day of canning that my canner was dripping condensation onto the stovetop & a little bit of steam was coming out another place so I went on to see if I could get it pressurized and it stayed solidly pressurized at 12–13 lbs for 90 minutes so I was able to finish those beans, but I’m going to have to replace the sealing ring & pressure valve and gasket around the other pressure release place according to the manual.

I was headed for ACE Hardware for new parts (hoping they had them) and my car’s air fan motor broke again so it’s now back in the shop as of an hour ago and I’m car-less once again. I may just order parts online & go ahead and try to can something else today with the old seal as long as the pressure will continue to stay up.

sigh. It’s always something.

I really appreciate all the recipes & sharing that you ‘pros’ do — it really helps!

Tomo – at 12:30

OK, here goes nothing. I appologize in advance if the formatting is not correct, I only have a small amt. of time while the little one is down and the other is at preschool. No time for the sandbox….

Pulled Pork

1 tbs cumin 1 tbs garlic powder 1 tsp salt 1tsp oregano 3 lbs. pork shoulder roast, in 1 inch cubes 16 oz can diced tomatoes 1 cup ketchup 1 med. onion chopped 2 tbs. cider vinegar 2 tbs. molasses 1 tbs. hot sauce.

combine the first 3 and toss with the pork. Add everything else and put in slow cooker for 4–5 hrs on high or 8 on low depending on your cooker. Stir occasionally. Pull meat, mix and eat! Great in a sandwich or over noodles, or even in a quesadilla.

I usually use more spices and eye ball everything. We like flavor in our food so we kick it up a bit. I’d really love to can this, even if it ment making it a bit saucier. Any suggestions would be welcome.

Tomo – at 12:33

OK, here goes nothing. I appologize in advance if the formatting is not correct, I only have a small amt. of time while the little one is down and the other is at preschool. No time for the sandbox….

Pulled Pork

1 tbs cumin

1 tbs garlic powder

1 tsp salt

1tsp oregano

3 lbs. pork shoulder roast, in 1 inch cubes

16 oz can diced tomatoes

1 cup ketchup

1 med. onion chopped

2 tbs. cider vinegar

2 tbs. molasses

1 tbs. hot sauce.

combine the first 3 and toss with the pork. Add everything else and put in slow cooker for 4–5 hrs on high or 8 on low depending on your cooker. Stir occasionally. Pull meat, mix and eat! Great in a sandwich or over noodles, or even in a quesadilla.

I usually use more spices and eye ball everything. We like flavor in our food so we kick it up a bit. I’d really love to can this, even if it ment making it a bit saucier. Any suggestions would be welcome.

try it again

shadddup – at 12:39

Tomo ~

If it were me, I would feel comfortable using a store brand bbq sauce…with the tomato base and vinegar high in bbq sauce ingredients, it would have enough acidity, especially when processed for the length of time and pressure required for meats.

If I were you, I’d do a test run…can up a couple of pints of the ribs in the sauce, let them sit in your cupboard for a month and then open them up, heat and try them. Some things, after being processed and sitting for a while can get intense flavors. I’ve noticed in things like just my chicken soup that the flavor intensifies a little after being stored for a while, which is a good thing…it’s actually better after sitting than it is freshly made…go figure lol. I’ve done marinara with eggplant which tasted AWFUL after sitting a while, so it’s trial and error with my home canned recipes.

I know you said that those meats were on sale, so I’d still go ahead and get them, do up a couple of test batches and freeze the rest. If your test batches taste awesome after sitting a while, you can take the meat you bought on sale outta the freezer and process the rest of them. Now is the time to make sure about some things…if things got bad, you don’t want to be opening up home canned jars that have changed taste a little over time and be stuck with that.

Same with your pulled pork recipe…the ingredients are all normal and acceptable items commonly used in home canning. When I process for the item requiring the longest time (meat in this case), I’ve felt comfortable using recipes that were my own. That suggestion is nothing that the experts would support, and falls along the lines of what Kathy in FL had said earlier about some agreeing/disagreeing. I guess because I’m so careful about some things (no dairy, thickeners, etc) I personally feel comfortable canning my home recipes…most times they really are close to the recipes that are USDA approved anyway.

Curry is an acceptable spice used in home canning. The curry paste however might be iffy, depending on what ingredients were used to make the paste vs the powder…yanno what I mean?

Shad.

Cinda – at 12:55

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 12:25

1.5 inches water

Do you think that’s why I’m losing liquid out of my jars? When I open the canner it was obvious that the liquid that was in the chile and then the meat pie filling, had boiled out as it was in the water in the canner. in both cases 1 jar did not seal- (so I tucked them in the fridge and we ate them that week.) I thik I’ll write to the canner people and get the real scoop. In the mean time- since you all seem to put much more water than 1.5 inches in your pressure canners, I will increase the water in mine and see what happens.

Tomo- thanks for your recipe- looks fantastic and as pork is on sale this week I’ll be trying it out on Sunday!

Cinda – at 13:01

Shad,

For Tomo’s pulled pork- would you recommend 10lbs pressuer x 90 minutes? I live at about 100 ft above sea level

shadddup – at 15:32

Cinda ~

Yes…10lb pressure is recommended for under 1000ft elevation so you’d be fine.

Shad.

Tomo – at 15:41

Shad, thanks. I’ll try canning up a batch of it and see how it holds. I was thinking the same thing about the curry. I love curry and thought I’d do a batch of “chicken vegetable soup” with curry to use as a base to cook later with rice for a meal maybe even throw in a can of coconut milk. If I cook the chicken in the broth with the curry for 10–15 min (I don’t want to cook it all the way through) then can I put the veggies in raw or should I cook all of it together. Can I pack the qt. jars pretty full of chick and veggies just using the broth to top off as long as I process for the 90 min at 10psi?

On second thought, I could just can the chicken with veggies and toss in the curry when cooking. That’ll leave the canned stuff open to being more versatile. There are a lot of things I could do with a can of chicken with veggies…or beef with veggies… or pork with veggies. I am really looking for things that can be building blocks…any suggestions for things like that that you would be at a loss without in your pantry?

Thanks again!

Hillbilly Bill – at 15:50

Cinda – at 12:55

When I can recipes that have grease in them like chili with ground hamburger or beef stew, I also get some of the liquid from the jars in the canner water. As long as the jars are sealed I have had no problems. I’m just guessing, but I bet your canner will work better with more water in it.

Cinda – at 16:02

Thanks HB- I’m definately going to put more water in. This weekend is going to be a “try the new recipes to see if we like them enough to make a big batch” weekend, plus I’m making corn relish, but that’s a waterbath canning item. Then If we like the new recipes ( Hawaiian pork and Tomo’s pulled pork) and I’m sure we will- when we come home from hunting I’ll make them up and can them. This is exciting- finding things to can that are for “just open a jar and serve over rice, or whatever”. As long as I’m making them- I won’t feel so bad about opening a jar and serving it for dinner.

Northstar – at 16:12

I have an AA and the manual says to use 1.5″ of water… remember, with a pressure canner you are canning with _steam_ not water, which only boils at what, 216? The pressure is to make the steam hotter than it can get under normal pressures and much hotter than you’d get in hot water bath canning. I would think if you used too much water, a lot of the energy would be diverted to heating all those extra molecules of water up over 216 instead of directing that energy at the liquid in the jars. Just my $.02.

Tomo – at 17:50

Northstar – at 16:12

Your right about the water. Please guys do be careful and only use the amt. of water suggested by your canner co..

This is NOT a water bath canner. If there is too much water in your canner it will change both the temp. and pressure you food sees and can produce an unsafe batch of canned meat. Unfortunately, you may not know it until you are sick from eating it. Steam and water transfer heat and pressure differently. If too much water is found inside a commercial canner (retort) often times the product is unsalvagable. Have fun but please, Be smart, stay safe

shadddup – at 21:37

Tomo - @ 15:41

The fun thing about home canning is it’s easy to be versatile. Can some meat/poultry with veggies alone, or all fixed up with spices or what have you. If I was canning meat with veggies, I would cook the meat first and put the veggies in with the meat raw, then add the broth or water. This is because canning raw meats leaves sediment in the broth. Kinda like the scum you skim off when making a pot of chicken/beef soup. When I can my meats by themselves, I can them raw because I’m not concerned about that sediment…I can just strain the broth through a collander when I go to make a recipe later.

In my soups, I always put the veggies in raw with the hot broth and cooked meats. In things like my conch chowder, the only thing I put in raw in the potatoes. When I make split pea soup with ham, I cook the ham and split peas, then put raw veggies in the jar after I’ve de-boned and de-fatted the ham and cut it up and pour the soup over it. When I make my chicken cacciatore, same thing, I make my marinara, cook my chicken, and add raw peppers. Chili is all done together and ladled in the jars, same with sloppy joes. My stews are put together in the jars also with raw veggies. (trying to think of other things off hand)…when I make up my chicken corn chowder, I use fresh corn, with cooked chicken and raw veggies…

etc, etc, etc…I hope that gives you a little idea.

I have a ton of different things that I home can, but the ones I find myself using the most are:

Marinara Chicken Soup Corn Green Beans Strawberry Jam Apple Butter Beef chunks Chicken Chunks Mushrooms Applesauce

The marinara is used alot because that is a base to many italian dishes. The corn and greenbeans are staples in my house. The jams are obviously great breakfast additions and I just don’t buy alot of commercially canned products anymore…the home canned products taste better and are healthier. The chicken soup is the first thing the children want when they don’t feel good, so that’s always at the top of my list to keep stocked. The beef and chicken chunks are just so awesome to use in a speedy home cooked meal. Tonight I took 2 quarts of beef chunks and shredded them, added some cumin and mild salsa to it and simmered it to make shredded beef soft tacos. It took me less than 5 minutes to put that all together. I use alot of mushrooms in my cooking so I tend to go through those alot too, and the applesauce is a great and healthy side dish to just about any meal (I still have 5 1/2 bushels to finish canning *pout* lol).

I home can alot more things like baked beans, navy bean soup with ham, potatoes, etc etc etc., but the above listed items are the ones I seem to go through the fastest.

Don’t get me started talking about this…I always get excited about it cause I really do believe passionately in it…that makes it easy to love all the work that goes into it.

Shad.

Tomo – at 22:06

Shad,

feel free to go on and on… I am finally getting over my phobia of home canned meat and “meal” products. I am really getting excited about the potential. I hope that all things pandemic allow me a little more time to hone a few more skills. I’d love another gardening season to tweek my new garden space ( moved from the last few years) and some more months to work on this canning compulsion I seem to have developed. Unfortunately, I am among those that counts the time we have as a gift and am feeling the need to polish some of these skills and lay in supplys sooner rather that later.

With that in mind, I am looking at my pantry and trying to find those things that I can put up now that will serve me best if this starts sooner rather than later. Once that is accomplished I am looking forward to putting up more “fun”, but not as essential stuff. Does that make any sense? So, I have lots of canned veggies, my husband works for a veggie etc.. processor and I get them cheeper than it makes sense to can. But, the meat, potatoes, tomato, and misc other things I really do want to put up.

My first attempt was a meat sauce. It did well and I learned a few things. Mostly reguarding efficient flow of time, I am a multi-tasker and the first run layed the basis to move more efficiently. Now it’s just a matter of prioritizing what I want to can first with the sales in the area and my time…

So, here is the question of the day- Given a looming pandemic scenerio and all that we know will go with it and an average persons pantry (yours sounds well beyond normal :) what would your priorities be with canning and what would the accompanying recipies be? big question I know, sorry, but it’s really what I’m trying to figure out. ;)

20 October 2006

shadddup – at 17:57

Tomo,

“what would your priorities be with canning and what would the accompanying recipies be?”

This is a very good question actually.

I have 4 children (2b 20/18, 2g 16/10). My preps and things that I can have been geared towards what I know they like, along with trying to ensure a variety. If/when TSHTF, it will be tramautic enough, so some creature comforts are important for me to can. I would imagine for a vast majority of the population, if/when something like the bf hits, the last thing they would have thought to stock up on would be apple pie filling, yet that is something I have done and I would envision could mean alot in troubled times.

With that said, for me personally, my priorities, in no certain order would be:

Meats/Poultry (and TONS of it). Things like canned hamburger, canned chunks of beef, canned chunks of pork, canned strips of ham. All of these single item meats could then be made into a variety of meals. Home canned meat is the next best thing to fresh in my NSHO.

Chicken soup (and TONS of it too). This is a staple that I can for obvious reasons, more medicinal purposes, especially when facing something like the bf. It’s a complete meal in and of itself, and what I do here at home is take some dry noodles, put them in a pot, open up a jar of my chicken soup, pour it over the noodles and simmer for 10 minutes. The broth cooks the noodles and I have instant homemade chicken soup.

Tomatoes (and lots of them also). These can be used with so many recipes and are valuable in their simple state (not made into meals) and are so easy to can. I can open up a jar, chop up the tomatoes, add onions, peppers, herbs and spices, lemon/lime and make a quick salsa. This is not how I would normally make my salsa, but if TSHTF, creativeness with things like this will give me an edge and the variety that I would want. Plus they are a good source of Vitamin C and some amino acids that are important nutrients.

Potatoes. They aren’t as good as fresh, but they work just fine and can be used in recipes or mashed or sliced/cubed and fried. Some things are what I call “hereditary eating” and potatoes were always a staple in our home growing up.

Applesauce. It’s an awesome source of Vitamin C and fiber, and something just about everyone loves. For me, it would fall into a luxury category in hard times, but is something that I personally would have on hand for its nutritional value alone.

Strawberry Jam. I don’t store flours, I store whole grains. I grind my own grains into flours and make breads and desserts from that. The jam could be used on toast and in desserts and is also one of those things that is personally important that along with it’s nutritional value, is also an emotional/psychological pick me up during hard times.

You already said you have access to veggies already so I won’t bother listing them other than the tomatoes and potatoes. If all I could pick were 6 things, those would be the ones (along with 2 or 3 other veggies that I also can myself) that I could feed my family and keep them fairly content (along with all the other things I store). Now that would be the bare bones list of course, and from there I have my specialty items like baked beans, sloppy joes, cherry pie filling, apple pie filling, peach jam, apple butter, chili, beef stew, conch chowder, navy bean soup with ham, split pea soup with ham, mushrooms, pickles, peaches, beef and chicken broths, chicken/corn chowder, salsa, black beans, marinara, chicken cacciatore…that’s all I can remember off hand…I’m tired from this ongoing apple canning lol.

As far as recipes, here’s a link where I’ve started to take pictures of the process of canning different items. It seems to have helped alot of people understand a little better how to make a recipe and home can it. This is the one for chicken soup I recently did, along with the recipe:

http://tinyurl.com/y9kcz4

I hope I’m answering your question right. As to specific recipes, I’m more than happy to share them…I tried to list most of the items that I home can, so if there are any recipes from that, that you’d like in particular, lemme know and I’ll post them.

Shad.

just passing through – at 20:53

Oh my goodness!!! I went to that link and wow! the recipes and photos too!!

21 October 2006

tjclaw1 – at 18:04

Shad - I got my chicken and am planning to can it tomorrow with my new American pressure canner - My first pressure canning project. I’ve got a couple of questions:

1. How long does it take you from start to finish?

2. When I make stock, I usually sweat the veggies and then deglaze with 1/2 cup wine before adding bones and water. Any reason I couldn’t do that here before adding water, chicken, and seasonings?

3. For the Cuban chicken soup, I couldn’t find the spice packets you talked about, but did buy some Maggi Chicken Flavor Boullon. Is it the same thing, or something completely different?

4. How much headspace do you leave in the jars - 1″?

I can’t wait to try this out tomorrow. I also want to make some beef, vegetable, and mushroom stock to “kick up” the flavor of rice, and barley risotto.

Your pictures are very helpful. Thanks!

shadddup – at 23:10

tjclaw1 ~

How long it takes me depends on how much I’m doing. Like I was saying in an earlier post, I tend to do volume canning, so when I’m doing a single batch of anything, it seems like a breeze.

1. I’m not sure what you’re planning on doing with your chicken, i.e. chicken soup, stock, etc. so it’s hard to say how long it would take. Are you making soup or stock?

2. There’s no reason you can’t do it like that.

3. Sazon seasoning isn’t a boullion per se, whether it be chicken, beef or whatever. It’s a cuban spice packet.

4. Yes, I have 1″ headspace when canning meats.

I’m excited for you! Good luck and let us know how it all goes!

Shad.

22 October 2006

AlohaORat 13:29

Kathy, Shad, Northstar, Tomo & Everyone: Thank you for posting recipes & links to recipes for pressure canning.

I have just ordered a pressure canner in order to can “convenience” foods (stew, soups, etc). The list of USDA-recipes for soups & stews that I’ve seen on websites & in cookbooks (Sunset Freezing & Canning, Putting Food By, Preserving the Harvest) is just too short for my needs. Our family includes 1 vegan & one person on a low-sodium diet, so many of the approved recipes that I’ve seen are not appropriate for us.

Can anyone suggest an information resource where I can learn more about ingredients to avoid if I am canning some of our family’s favorite foods? I know that I need to use the time/pressure appropriate for the longest-cooking (in pressure canning terms) ingredient, and I know to avoid dairy (not a problem here), flour and thickeners. I’m heading out to today to the get the current Ball Blue Book. Any other suggestions?

tjclaw1 – at 14:02

shadddup – at 23:10

Thanks. I’ve gotten the chicken cooked, the stock strained veggies cut up, and just need to get chicken ready. It is a cold day here, 37 degrees, so I put the stock pots on the 3-season porch to cool so I can skim fat off.

I had to use 2 12-quart stock pots to do this as I had 2 chickens. Now I want a 20-quart stock pot for Christmas! I love my Anolon stock pot but don’t think they make a 20-quart.

I need to can some apple pie filling today and I usually do it in a boiling water bath. Any reason I can’t pressure can it? It would be so much more convenient. I’ve got a rotator cuff tear (see surgeon on Tues.) and I just can’t lift a lot.

Cinda – at 16:47

Tomo,

OMG!!!! Has anyone else made Tomo’s Pulled pork?? Can it? There’ won’t be any left to can. I have to make another batch when we get home from hunting. I think I can make a meal for myself out of just dipping my bread in the broth when the meat’s gone!!! Maybe even just a big bowl of rice with the broth over it. This stuff is amazing!!!!

And North star’s Hawaiian Pork- Yumm!!!!! I made 1/2 the recipe. That’ll never make it to the canner either. I’ll put it up in tupperware for hunting week next week and give some to Husbands father and have yet Withanother recipe that I have to make a big batch of when we get home.

Also made 12 1/2 pints (and 1 qt jar for the fridge right away)of corn relish this afternoon. What was I ever thinking buying it in the store??? At $3.00 for a 1/2 pint jar. It’s no where near as good as this. Got the recipe off that neat food preservation site that someone posted on another thread.

Who ever discovered and perfected canning should be sainted!With all these new meal options- I am now completely addicted to canning all over again

AlohaORat 19:04

I found the answers to my canning questions (re: soups) at: http://tinyurl.com/9fy34

shadddup – at 19:52

AlohaOR ~

That is the ultimate authority in my book…I’m glad you found your answers.

Low sodium is easy to accomplish…adding salt is not mandatory to safe canning.

Shad.

25 October 2006

Madamspinner – at 07:05

Kathy in FL – at 10:28 Any of y’all ever canned citrus juice? I’m probably going to try and can some frozen juice concentrate . I’ll thaw it and then can it just like regular fruit juice.

Ah, the answer to this is a big NO ! I tried this using thawed concentrate…..3 weeks ago….just opened a pint of it….ewwwww….. smells nasty…NOT spoiled, just nasty…kinda “cooked” or something. Well, I guess it DOES cook it… :-( It also turned darker when I did it, too. Even if the smell was ok; it looks very unappitizing. (sp)

Now I didn’t try it reconstituted; but if we have to keep it THAT way; we might as well buy it in the cans to start with.

So I get to empty & wash about 14 pint jars today. Bummer…..

Tomo – at 11:43

What are your guy’s favorite cuts of meat to can?

cinda, glad you liked the pulled pork, it’s one of our standby’s. We’ll see how it holds up over time to canning, if the flavors change…

Kim – at 11:48

You can buy the shelf-stable cans of juice concentrate at the grocery store, everything from OJ to cranberry, grape or mixed fruit juices. They have a use-by date that’s about a year out. Look in the section where they keep non-refrigerated bottled juices.

26 October 2006

Madamspinner – at 06:27

Tomo— On favorite cut of meat to can--- If it’s going to be a dish BIG on meat, it’s beef, rump or chuck roast, as de-fatted as I can get it….On chicken or turkey…it’s the dark meat, no skin or bone. But I am canning the white meat separate, ( blush ) for the cat---( he’ll share if I need it )…he only has 3 teeth left at 10 yrs old. Poor baby. Ham —as big a chunk as I can get in the jars, Rabbit, Bone-in.

KIM— I have added those cans to my list…think it’s a MUCH better & safer way to go. The Dollar Store also has OJ, grape & apple in cans ( not conc.) that I want to try.

Madamspinner – at 06:31

SCORE 1 for getting a deal ! I stopped in at Save-a-Lot tonight and they had 1 lb sacks of carrots for a DIME EACH !! :−0 I bought 15 pounds, + 8 pounds of celery, 12 of onions and an 8 pd bag of taters to mix and can in pints. WOO HOO !

shadddup – at 06:58

Madamspinner – at 06:31

Darn girl, you scored a good deal! Congrats!

BTW, when you said “Ham —as big a chunk as I can get in the jars”, I just wanted to mention that it is suggested to can meats in 1/2″ - 1″ thick pieces, or stew meat 1 1/2″ - 2″ thick cubed pieces. It sounds like you can alot, but just wanted to mention that for those that are newer to canning…I think the size recommendations are stated so that during processing, the meat is of an appropriate size for the pressure and high heat to penetrate the pieces of meat effectively. I’ve noticed that the strips of ham that I’ve canned tends to darken during the processing…probably from the sugars contained in the cured pork.

Tomo – at 11:43

The nice thing about home canning meats is that the process does to meats, what cooking in a pressure cooker will do…taking tougher meats and making them fork tender. Keeping that in mind, personally I don’t look for one particular cut of meat to can…I do however look for the less expensive, leaner cuts of meat, which might not always be the most tender, but that come out beautiful after being processed in your home canner.

Shad.

Madamspinner – at 07:02

shadddup – at 06:58

My ham pieces are about an inch square and as long as the jar. Stew meats are about the same. I always wondered WHY the ham turned darker…Thanks ! ;-)

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 07:35

Y’all are great to us new to canning folks!! Thanks!!

Cinda – at 07:40

Madamspinner – at 06:27

What sort of ham do you cook to get those big chunks. I cook a lot of things but I’ve never done a ham and I have no idea what to get. I have a recipe from a co-worker that sounds wonderful- she bakes hers in a pan with a ketchup based sauce- like a BBQ almost- that she “glazes” the ham with. I was thinking it would be neat to do that and then can it in the left over sauce. But I’d like to have some just plain too.

Madamspinner – at 07:50

I just get a whole “Cooks’” ham; strip the skin off, and debone it…cut it into chunky strips and can it in the ham broth I make with the bones & tendons. Small pieces go into beans….green and dry.

 I tend to keep my canned meats plain, as I also have a not-so-old, but almost toothless kitty that would need to share any and all meats when a jar is opened. ;-)
I’m-workin’-on-it – at 07:52

Ok, forgot to ask….up above it said to put eggs in meatballs, but someone else indicated that eggs were a no-no in meatloaf — or did I read that wrong? Can you can egg as an ingredient in something or is it better to leave it out

Cinda – at 08:05

I saw that too- I think we need the long time canners to answer that question for us. I made meatloaf last week and was going to can it but I chickened out after reading about eggs and how density of the packed meat could affect the heating process. Then I wondered, what if I were to put it in the jars and bake it first? Then while they were still hot, cap them and can them?

Madamspinner – at 08:15

My dad used to can meatloaf. He used wide mouth quarts, packed the meatloaf mix in there raw; then took a piece of 1″ wooden dowel ( bleached & washed) and made a hole in the meatloaf, all the way to the bottom. Canned as per the book for any beef. Then when he opened it; sliced some off, put it in a sandwich and filled the hole with catsup ! The sklices fit a hamburger bun perfectly. And I know he did use eggs in it. He wasn’t sick a day in his life until he smoked himself to death.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 09:01

Madamspinner – at 08:15 that just might work — I have kabab skewers I could put together to make a clean wooden “dowel”…….This may be the perfect way to do it—sure sounds like it! I’d still like to hear some other comments!

Cinda – at 09:24

Thanks Madamspinner - I hadn’t thought of that. What a great thought about fitting the buns just right- I just love meatloaf & ketchup sandwiches! I know about parents commiting slow suicide by cigarettes. Lost my mother when I was 25 and my daughter was 18 months. Just when I needed her the most. It’s a pain that never goes away. And the Why did he/she do that never goes away. But that’s not what we’re here about- We’re here to make sure we stay alive and well for our children- no matter how old they are- you always need your Mum. So lets get canning so we’ll have nutritious good tasting food for all our loved ones.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 09:31

Question about the amount of water to put inside the canner up above brought this response:

You’re right about the water. Please guys do be careful and only use the amt. of water suggested by your canner co..

This is NOT a water bath canner. If there is too much water in your canner it will change both the temp. and pressure you food sees and can produce an unsafe batch of canned meat. Unfortunately, you may not know it until you are sick from eating it. Steam and water transfer heat and pressure differently. If too much water is found inside a commercial canner (retort) often times the product is unsalvagable.

(thanks for that explanation!)

NEW QUESTION: wouldn’t the pressure still be OK if you used too much water as long as the pressure dial is reading 10 lbs of pressure?

Tomo – at 12:34

NEW QUESTION: wouldn’t the pressure still be OK if you used too much water as long as the pressure dial is reading 10 lbs of pressure?

No. The pressure guage is on the top of the canner. It only reads the pressure at that spot. It can’t tell if there is 2″ or 12″ of water under it.

Closed and Continued - Bronco Bill – at 12:46

Long thread closed and continued here

Last relevant posts copied to new thread

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Page last modified on October 26, 2006, at 12:46 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Maine Preppers III

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Maine Preppers III

08 September 2006

Bronco Bill – at 00:22

Continued from here


bird-dog – at 11:23

Lisa, Al, and Others nearby, this would be a great opportunity to see where Maine stands! I have several medical appointments that day but I’ll try to change them. The keynote DHHS representative has not been identified yet. I hope that at least one of us can go!

Maine State Government Pandemic Influenza/Avian Influenza Preparedness Summit

Wednesday September 20, 2006 8:00 AM - 4:00 PM

Augusta Civic Center, Augusta ME

Registration: Registration deadlines are September 11, 2006 if no special accommodations are required

>>> http://www.neias.org/maineflu.html


Lisa in Southern Maine – at 19:38

Hi Birddog - just a short note from me today. I can’t go on the 20th. Full client schedule and have no place to reschedule them too, as I’m tightly booked for next 7 weeks. If you go I want to hear all about it please, and thank you!

12 September 2006

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 20:27

Hi all! Hope everyone is well. Hope we stay that way. Bf simmering more actively now, and my preps not completed. Well, they probably never will be but a couple of very important items still not attained. I’m beginning to feel a little pressured, as though I have an unknown but impending deadline that I may not meet. Feeling somewhat spooked tonight. Check in folks. Tell me where you’re at. Take care.

NauticalManat 22:31

Hello Lisa, all is well here in Massachusetts. Celebrated our wedding anniversary tonight with a dinner out, still in the vacation mode, even if DW had to go back to the salt mine. Spooked a bit myself last couple of days, the news out of Indonesia seems to be worsening. Can’t seem to make myself do the last of the prepping and make some order of it all. Think I am burnt out right now. Hope that someday we will all meet at Gritty McDuffs for a brew and tell tales of the Pandemic and how we managed to live through it while non-preppers wished that they had listened to us! Of course we would have to check and see if they allowed parrots for bird-dog. Fiona rules!

13 September 2006

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 19:17

Hope you had a lovely anniversary NauticalMan. Those salt mines…we really need to do something about them…Keeping preps, or getting preps, in order is a bit time consuming isn’t it? We have worked hard at this. I hope our efforts end up being good enough. And yes…a brew (Guiness on tap, long double pour for me) at McDuffs is something we’ll have earned! Birddog could put Fiona in her new little parrot carrier. That bird lives better than I do! Thanks for checking in NauticalMan. The voices on this thread are ones I love to hear.

NauticalManat 20:44

Lisa, would you believe I have some Guiness in my preps! Don’t know about the shelf life, can’t keep it in stock, although I am only a one beer per session person, I really love the dark stouts, try Murphy’s Stout also.. Everyday brew is Ipswich Dark Ale, very nice. They even go with lobstah! And steamahs!!

17 September 2006

anon – at 14:58

birddog - haven’t heard from you in a week, and haven’t seen you pop up on other threads. I hope that you are well and just taking fluwiki break. Things have been pretty quiet overall, so if you have taken break you really won’t have much catching up to do. Please check in.

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 19:35

birddog - I don’t know why my above post says anon. Clearly says my real name in ‘author’ section…I’ll try again, so that you have no question as to who is inquiring after you.

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 19:36

that’s better!

19 September 2006

bird-dog – at 01:59

Hi Lisa! Sorry I’ve been so quiet, my niece from Mayo and my sister from CT were here (separately) plus I had that appt in Mass. last Tues. which threw me off a bit (now the doc is thinking acute porphyria- will do a test for it on Wed. & he doubled my neurontin— he first asked me if I’d seen the movie ‘The Madness of King George’! sheesh…he’s lucky that he’s so nice!).

My niece left yesterday and it was such a joy to have her here; my sister too. Exhausting though. My sister really acted like she thought that I’d lost my mind regarding the preps so I challenged her to accompany me to one of my doctor’s appointments so that she could ask him directly if preparing for panflu was a healthy endeavor. She declined the invitation though. Ha. Too bad, really… She did help me sort through clothes and that was such a gift. More room for you-know-what! And she plans to return to India in the Fall although she did ask me to keep her informed of the bf conditions there. Humoring me, probably!

I sent her off with a solar radio, a silk sack for her sleeping bag, a screen and seeds for sprouts, much information, etc. and my niece left with a crank flashlight, a copy of Barry’s book, a Kelly Kettle (from Mayo..lol) and more.

I’ve received another large order from Honeyville, and since yesterday have managed to spend way too much money on preps---more propane, a small but powerful LED lantern, a crank flashlight(replacement), another catalytic heater from Coleman, a digital thermometer to track the conditions in the crawl space, more large Sterlite containers, camo. clothing for sneaking around outside if prep mauraders are about, more toothbrushes, water, rice ‘n beans, more powdered milk, batteries, meds, cat and bird supplies, Will’s and Dr. Woodson’s books, bleach, the Monty Python movies marked way down, *A PIPE*! <G> to smoke my Top and American Spirit tobacco as I can’t seem to roll cigs. (of course it’s ONLY for WTSHTF!--sort of..LOL) On and on…

My sisters and niece joked constantly about all coming to my house if/when the shtf. Big joke! If they only understood…I really tried to explain without losing my composeur, ie w/o getting my ‘buttons’ pushed. So frustrating though and so *not* funny.

Lisa I loved reading your thoughts on the ‘dream’ thread —so comforting!… and interesting.

The cats are doing very well but continue to need to be monitored around Fiona; the three of them are a riot together. It’s nice to have our quiet little space back.

Did you choose a wood-stove? I hope that you and your family have eased into the school year smoothly and are doing well.

And NauticalMan, a belated >> HAPPY ANNIVERSARY << to you and your ‘dear-wife’! BTW, I also like Murphy’s and Guinness but Smithwicks would be my ‘Everyday Brew’ if I didn’t have a glass of BB’s RWFK with my supper most nights. Guiness is the only brew in my preps though and only one six-pack at that. More may be in my last minute prep run. Have almost enough Jameisons and cheap wine though! BB would be proud of me…

I still need to catch up on the other threads… but probably not tonight. Oh and where’s Al? Good night y’all!

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 18:48

Hi birddog! So very glad to hear from you! I thought this might have been the visit time, and went thru our thread to confirm but couldn’t find it. I’m just glad you’re well. acute porphyria huh? In the old days, this was diagnosed with a unrine test, the watson-schwartz I think. I know there are different kinds of porphyria, but the few I’ve seen did get better with treatment. And the treatment I most remember was food glorious food, tons of it, carbs. In the hospital, these patients were the bane of the kitchen staff! If this is your diagnosis, and lord knows it would explain so many symptoms, you may have to change your prepping habits towards carbs and more carbs. But I’ve been in psychiatry for years and treatment has likely changed. I have seen people recover from this well. A rare phenomonon. Your doc did well to consider this.

This week in prepville, more kleenex, water, canned butter, replacement filters for air cleaners, inhalers, Joan Armatrading :), food-storage bags. Hopefully I’ll go to Kittery trading post for gun this weekend. It depends on what shape the pocketbook is in. Don’t worry, I’m a perfect shot - it’s one of my few skills, and it will never be in boy’s vision, although I do want older boy to take 3 day intensive firearm safety course designed by an ex-detective aquaintance (spelling?). If tshtf, I’ll not have anyone raiding what I’ve worked my ass off to store. Not a single calorie will be forcefully taken from my boys. I will share with my neighbors though, carefully.

What will you do in your camo if raiders threatening? What is your protection/defense plan? Mine is only a gun and 2 dogs. The older dog will be especially helpful and the younger will follow her lead. She corrals human threats - herds them away from the house with deep growl and muscles tense, looking ready to spring. She is a good deterrent, but can’t do this on her own. I want her to back me up. I don’t want to put her in the position of primary defender with me backing her up.

How about a cig rolling machine? They’re cheap and roll perfectly every time.

I’m sorry about your sister’s attitude. My eldest brother refuses to recognize that any bf prep reference has been made by me. He plays deaf. It’s worrisome, but there is simply nothing that can be done to make someone ready to take this seriously before they’re ready. You gave them good gifts. They’re lucky. Perhaps your sister will review the literature you gave her on her long flight back to India. She may change her opinion about the liklihood of bf pandemic. Do you think she would come to your house if shtf? My bother (not eldest) said same thng and I said - “I need to know now. I’ve put away for 3 people. If you’re coming, I need to know now so that I can start stroting food for you and your family. Or I’ll give you a necessities list and you can start working on it yourself.” His response was that he was sure my sister-in-law (family practice doc) was on it. She’s not. I asked. She doesn’t ‘really’ think it’ll happen.

I love the dream thread! Northstar dreams well. I check in for updates of her dreaming mind regularly.

I have not chosen wood stove yet. I’m wondering today if I can do that in 2006. Things are tight. I wanted wood in now, but not happening this month. I keep thinking I’ll find a way. And I usually do, when I think this way. A little more patience I guess, although it is very hard to find that patience about this important heating issue.

I’ll bet it is nice to have your house back to yourself. Visitors are exhausting! Glad kitties and the empress are doing well. I’d love to see them play. I watch my dogs wrestle and laugh! Lilly grabs Seymour by his collar and tries to flip him, he opens his huge moth and encircles her snout and as much of her head as can fit. He jumps over her body like a deer, and she tries to time his midair leap to headbut his expose belly. They are so very funny and much loved.

Alright. By and take care and I’m so glad all is mostly well with you.

20 September 2006

bird-dog – at 02:39

Hi Lisa. I did buy a small cig. rolling machine and have used one in the past but now have problems with muscle spasms even just holding the cig. to lick the paper. I think the pipe may be easier…nice look though <G>. Now if I just had a few seeds… if you know what I mean. Haven’t been there and done that since the early 70′s and, of course,i didn’t inhale. LOL! Loved the smell, not so much the feeling. I’ve heard that it *is* very therapeutic though. Hummmmm Anyway, medical M. should be legal for those who need it, to say the least!

Thanks for the information about your experiences with porphyia. I do have many of the neurological symptoms but fortunately none of the major psychological ones (yet?) though I have always been a bit wacky. Does that count? <G>. It seems unlikely to me that the MND would be due to this dx as it is definitely not intermittent(sp?)/acute but has been progressive and chronic for the past three/four years. I’ve thought ‘neuro-sarcoidosis’ as I’ve had the arthritis and the elevated serum ace levels for several years too. The doc still thinks that it could be something like ALS but can’t figure out the neuropathy angle. I’ll do the 24 hr. U. test tomorrow, have NordX handle it, and may have the results within a week.

Massive carbs would be fun; I could use a little more weight, but I’d have to give up my RWFK and nicotine gum according to some porphyria sites! Guess I could do it but would have to find another vice --- maybe knitting with gigantic needles? I used to love to knit. That could be fun and relaxing. It just doesn’t seem bad enough to satisfy this ‘child of the sixties’ mind-set. I’ll just crank up Jimmi Hendrix, the Cream, my Motown, CSNY, early Stones, Cat Stevens, J. Cash, etc. and get by that way. I did buy the new Dylan---great cd.

About the defense issue. I’m thinking of finding a dog at the shelter, possibly taking a firearm class and spending time at a range, and possibly buying a gun; that is, if my hands can hold and fire one. I do have three cans of wasp spray (I wonder where I got that idea!). After my home was invaded, the guy arrested, and who then proceeded to stalk me when released, several of my local sheriff guys suggested that I buy a gun. I bought a cell phone and pepper spray instead and was very very careful. This new situation really has me scared so I have been figuring out different senarios and ways to protect myself; some that I won’t mention on here right now.

I have said to my friends and family that if they have plans to move in with me they need to bring food, etc.. I’ll give them a list OR they need to give me the money to buy it for them and then *they’d* have to pack it away here. I can barely do my own ‘for crying out loud’. Other than that, I can’t help them. I would love to have another’s company esp. for security and games but would be fine solo! LOL. I’m working on having a neighborhood meeting to hopefully get some people aware and prepping. That would be the greatest security solution. I think that they’ll just shrug it off though… I have mentioned it to some in the past without finding any interest. I do have, as many of us do here, a 30 gal. trash container filled with bags of rice and beans for neighbors who are in dire straits. They’ll have to find their own water! Have you seen the Steri-pen? I think that’s what it’s called. It’s a UV water sterilizer- Beans carries it. Very cool!

It’s late again…shoot/and I still need to read the news thread.

BTW, The Common Ground Fair is this weekend. You should take your boys! Many prepping ideas there but it *would* be a long drive from Southern Maine. No dogs allowed though, even in cars in the parking fields.

thanks Lisa, yup, I’m doing really well most of the time! Great rain-storm tonight too! Cozy.

Al – at 11:11

Hi everyone, just checking in. I’ve been non-stop busy with work and child and roof repair, etc. I plan to catch up on old posts tonight. Bird-dog, hope you’re feeling OK, regards to Lisa and Nautical Man and all your animal children!

Off to work-

bird-dog – at 11:26

Hi Al, I’m doing very well. Thanks! …and the critters are thriving. And do you believe this day—so brilliant! Have a good one!

(Be sure to read the ‘Pigs in China …’ thread tonight - very disturbing but incredibly important.)

NauticalManat 15:27

Nice to see that all my Maine “cousins” are doing ok. Birddog, isn’t it great getting old. They call them the Golden Years for the same reason they call CA the Golden State, we both turn brown, shrivel up and blow away! Happy at least that your resident critters are doing well. Will you be joining us at Gritty McGruffs after the Pandemic with Fiona in her parrot carrier?! That would be something to see! Take care of your good selves BD, Lisa, Al.. Be Well All….

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 16:30

birddog - how about really large knitting needles and some soothing funky herb? Ya know, I figure sip might give us all a really good excuse to revert to some of the more carefree behaviors of our youth! Mellooowwww sip. Sounds good. And what is RWFK but pure carbohydrate. Can somehow be justified if we work on it.

I have a pen sterilizer - miox - $129.95 in May at Plan for Flu.com. It was about the same price everywhere online and Bean overprices sometimes so now you have baseline for this model anyway.

A dog is, imho, a necessiety for pandem. security. I’m really glad you’re thinking about going to the shelter. The perfect pup will choose you! If you want to take the firearms course run by that aquaintance I mentioned, he sets his up as a 3 (?) day intensive all about respose under threat and how to manage if at home danger. He covers an awful lot more than breaking down and reassembling, loading, safe carriage and target practice. I’m sure he charges a helluva lot more too. His program was center of guns and ammo magazine this summer, June or July. If you can get back issue you can read about it. It’s supposed to be excellent.

Neighborhood meeting…I’d love to updated as to that progress.

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 16:31

Al - nice to hear from you. Sounds as though you’ve been accomplishing a lot! How’s the puppy?

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 16:33

NauticalMan - I checked in on MA thread. Thought I’d come visit you instead of you always having to visit us here! Hope all is well on this beautiful day!

bird-dog – at 22:45

Hi guys!

NauticalMan - Yes I’ll definitely be there with you all at Gritty’s, Fiona too! My nephew has worked there for several years part-time while going to college. And hey mister, speak for yourself re.’the Golden Years’ LOL. Maybe it’s because I’ve never married or had kids/have been a free spirit, BUT *I* still feel young… Todays G.Y.’s are the 70′s IMO. ;)

Lisa, I also bought that small red Miox filter in the spring (as the package claimed to also target viruses) but this sounds to be even easier than the Miox! I picked up the Miox at the camping store next to Wild Oats in Portland - same price there. I’ve also bought a box of rock salt and some extra lithium batteries but still need to order the strips.

This is so tempting and hummm, I could give the Miox to my niece… Somebody, please stop me. Help! <just kidding>

SteriPEN Water Purifier >>> http://tinyurl.com/hop6f

21 September 2006

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 18:52

birddog - really nothing wrong with having both, is there? Sounds like a good backup to me. And you’re young because you never married or had kids…!

bird-dog – at 20:23

No Lisa, just kidding. One of my older sisters had five kids and she is a million times more active and youthful/carefree(?) than I am!

22 September 2006

MAV in Colorado – at 00:31

where in ME are all of you from, I am likely moving in the next couple months to the Bangor burbs. Nice to know Maine is preppin’

bird-dog – at 09:58

Hi Mav in Colorado!

We welcome you with open(ed?) arms! This is very exciting to have a fellow ‘wikian’ move to our glorious state. Especially *you* who has prepped, has shared on the ‘board’, and has had such useful work experiences. Poor you Mav, to have to move your preps across the country like BB. You may/will be safer here though.

As far as our locations are concerned: obviously Lisa lives in Southern Maine, Al is Down East possibly in the stretch between Rockport and Acadia, and I’m on the coast between Rockport and Harpswell. Sorry to be so vague but once you settle in, hopefully we’ll all get together and exchange our addresses, or not.

My sweet brother and his family live in Winterport and he works at the University of Maine in Bangor - all ‘non-preppers’ as are the rest of my siblings. My sister from CT. is even planning to move back to India this Fall for an indeterminate length of time! Oh well, I tried. <sigh>

‘gotta go but if we can help, we will! Just ask…

MAV in Colorado – at 15:46

Thanx Bird dog! Nice feeling to know preppers before I even get there. I have heard and read so many great things about Maine. That is the ONLY reason I am even considering a move. I plan on flying out in the next couple weeks to potentially “shake hands” on the deal I’m working on and have a good look around. Not so worried about the move except for the timing of it. I don’t want to be doing it in the middle of a bad winter dump. I would be relocating somewhere 10–20 miles outside of Bangor. Will be looking for a nice wooded 5–20+ acre place. Any area suggestions would be great. I have a bit of a heavy heart about possibly leaving here, I know I will miss the Rockies. Our hockey league starts here tonight and I would likely have to bail out on my teams mid season. I hear you guys play some hockey out there ; )

←-GSP lover here, “The Ultimate Bird Dog” !!

NauticalManat 21:04

MAV in Colorado

Speaking as a non-native Mainer (but given honorary status by Lisa, bird-dog and the rest) have been going “down” to Maine for about 40 years and still am amazed how little of it I have seen. Thousands of miles of coastline, mountains. Been all over the world, and there is much beauty out there, but Maine is still my favorite place. In fact, New England has a lot to offer, weather possibly a downside, but we have the most glorious Fall! Good Luck in your relocation. Possibly you will join us for the post Pandemic celebration?

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 21:06

Well MAV - from one beautiful place to another! Welcome! You will have tough winters but may be used to that depending on where you are in Colorado. Ever been in a nor’easter? Now, those ocean blows are fun. Sometimes we have ice storms so beautiful they’ll make your heart ache, everything, absolutely everything wrapped in a perfect glistening layer of ice and when the sun comes out it glistens and sparkles like billions of diamonds. So beautiful. Welcome MAV. Some really good people here too, people on the same farm for generations and people newly settled from all over the country. Still so much forest, lot of Appalachian trail and other great hikes.

And, yesterday (might have been Wednesday actually) a pandemic conference was held at state capital and 1000 people attended! So, Maine is getting ready!

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 21:17

Hi birddog - today I had to go clothes shopping for work. I absolutely hate the process of clothes shopping, and the money clothes cost. A very depressing day, but it’s been a few years and when I didn’t even have a pair of black pumps to wear to the office this week I realized no more putting it off. That’s prep money for next couple of weeks dammit! And the whole time I’m doing the Kittery crawl, pawing my way thru clearance racks, I’m thinking “this just DOESN”T MATTER!!!Who cares!!!More important things are looming and clothes are the last thing anyone should be worried about right now!” I always get pretty bitchy when I clothes shop, another reason I don’t do it often. But really, spent money to look professional to keep practice going to prep to isolate where no one will give a s*** what I’m wearing anyway. ARGHHHH. Rant over. Apologies conveyed.

bird-dog – at 23:55

I hear you, Lisa. I’m another who hates, hates, hates clothes shopping (aaaahhh!) on most days and in times like these, it *does* seem particularly rediculous and wasteful. For years I’ve made an effort to dress up for the classical concerts in the summer out of respect for the barely teenage Julliard students and their peers. They work so hard! This summer I didn’t spend a cent on clothes, just cobbled up bits of this and that and felt very satisfied (and duely respectful). When my sister was here and helping me sort through my closet and bags of clothes- some over thirty years old!, I kept thinking to myself “If/when tshtf, it may be years before I can find another new or frayed and perfectly faded red Woolrich flannel shirt or an enormous well-loved misshappened sweater. It did help to know that the too large or too small or too short jeans would be going to Nicaragua as well as summer sweaters, shirts, and dresses. Someone will love to have them and I really do have enough *stuff*. Plus the bloody hassle of bagging and unbagging clothes in the fall and spring and then NEVER wearing them, year after year after year!!

Anyway, so sorry you had to spend your prep money on undesireables.

Today I had my old woodstove and chimney cleaned. I also had a tree-man come to give me an estimate on an eighty-ninety ft. pine that has three stalks(?-can’t think of the word!) growing from its trunk, one of which is very dead- the middle one. The tree is right next to my house and so beautiful. A million little souls use it for food, nesting, a pathway, etc. The guy said that the entire tree must go. I’m *so* sad about it. I love this tree but mushrooms are even growing on the dead part and if it falls I’ll definitely be a goner. Plus of course, who SIP’ing needs a smashed house in the middle of an ice-storm, snow-storm, or hurricane. The stove guy said that my stove needs work inside of it too and that a new one would save me on wood/burn longer and be better for the atmosphere. He doesn’t sell stoves and I do trust his judgement. He said that I could probably get 3–4 hundred for the old one. Since I’ll need to take out a loan for the tree, hey…why not a stove too? I don’t know. I do want to feel safe though.

After reading Gaudia-Ray’s and others’ posts yesterday <gulp> and today, I’m almost at a topping over point. Bought more propane, containers, all the usuals and then worked in my crawl-space. The cats were down there too having a grand time stalking the mysterious dark one/ my shy beast with the glowing eyes and the scraping gait. An Odradek? Anyway, doubt I’ll make it to the C.G.Fair this year. Or maybe I’ll wake up tomorrow and go. I do love those animals and have been fantasizing over buying some fresh new wool. I also want a grain mill!

NauticalMan, I realized after my post to Mav that I left you out. I’m sorry. You are definitely one-of-us! please forgive me! <smile>

stay safe and warm--- b-d.

23 September 2006

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 11:01

birddog - thank goodness for wikipedia. I now know what an Odradek is, and surely if anyone has one, you do. Sorry about your tree. I have 2 that have to be taken down and it is most saddening. By the way, did I tell you that the squirrels are going absolutely nuts with my chestnut trees this year? They’re coming from all over (as most of the county’s chestnuts died in a virus/fungal/some kind of outbreak in the 90s). Very busy year, which indicates much snow. Last year they left a ton on the ground. This year the ground is clean and they’re shaking them off the branches! The trees are dripping with nuts, a really good crop.

What thread for Gaudia-Ray’s post?

Home Depot has some wood stoves at really good price.

Have a good day. I’m going to look for the thread that put you on edge now. Lisa

bird-dog – at 12:18

What thread for Gaudia-Ray’s post?

Hi Lisa- I can’t remember which thread it was on but here is a link to FluTrackers where LaidbackAl posted G-R’s comments. If can you find the thread/post on FW, please tell me where it is! My poor brain…<grin> thanks :-)

>>> http://tinyurl.com/ln2ub

NauticalManat 12:33

bird-dog, no apologies needed!

Sorry about your old pine, always sad to see an ancient tree taken down, especially one that has been there as part of your life for so long, but it will make some good kindling for your new woodstove. From what I have read the new ones are very much more efficient and clean burning. I have an old Mid-Moe, bought back in the late 70′s or so, no catalytic converter or anything, actually heated my house with it from the basement for a few years until I realized how much work it was, and wood is very expensive here in the Boston area. It is still there, crank it up for a couple of days every winter to keep the squirrels honest and the chimney clean and dry, still works fine and will be a backup source of heat for two or three weeks as wood storage is limited. Have to pray that we have power most of the time if IT happens. The news does not look good, China/Indonesia look like ticking time bombs with the countdown getting short. And as Monotreme and others say, there does not seem to be an excess of folks out there tripping over each other to tell the truth. Lisa in SM, are you saying you have American Chestnut trees in your area? Or are they horse chestnusts? Thought they (American) had all died from the blight years ago. Remember seeing some saplings years back in Walden Pond area, but understand these are old roots which keep sending up growth, only to die back after a few years, sad, like the American Elm of which there are only a few left here and there, only one in my town that I know of now. Guardia Ray’s comments have been very much of a downer, sorry don’t remember which thread. If I find it again will let you know. A gloomy, rainy day here and I am sure, there, maybe a dose of SMFK would be in order this evening! Have to build up resistance to the enemy! Nice welcome to MAV in Colorado. MAV, do you like lobsters? If so and you move to Maine you will have died and gone to Heaven, because Maine lobsters are the Finest Kind as they say down there, and to quote a friend in Maine, they are Some Good!, which is a very high compliment indeed from a man of few, but cogent, words! Be Well All

bird-dog – at 12:39

ayah, it’s comin down ha’d. beautiful!

Al – at 22:28

Hello again all, Nautical, Lisa, bird dog and now MAV. Hope all is good with all of you. I’ve been in Court (or prep for it) non-stop for a couple of weeks, so I’ve been offline and am still behind on reading all the comments. We had a good prep morning, however, when we scored over a hundred kids books, mostly Newberry Award winners and classics so my girl is thrilled-she loves books! She started a lending library in her bedroom recently.

I did spend nearly all day today at the Commonground fair drooling over the woodstoves and hydrogen fuel cell vendors. The Green Store (in Belfast) had such a packed display I couldn’t get myself in there. Note to self-to spend spend quiet, childless time at the Green Store in Belfast-what a fun place. At the fair I finally had a chance to check out, and actually touch and feel the AirX wind turbines that I’ve been eyeing online and I plan to purchase one soon since I have a ship’s mast lashed to the back of my home, put there by the crazy sea captain who used to live in my house before I bought it. The ship’s mast might be the perfect location for the AirX and lessen the need for solar panels because I have lots and lots of wind here.

I only wish the fair had more vendors in the energy/shelter department. I’m actually debating whether to return tomorrow but if it rains in the morning, I’ll probably forget about it. One of my favorite animals of all time (other than my own animal children) is the goat. We were sad that we never made it over to see the bunnies and the goats. I got so bogged down at the fair between running into people that we know and stuffing our faces at every possible opportunity and checking out all the alternative energy vendors, that I failed to get us over to the animal and livestock area. My little girl was disapointed and I was sad to miss the goats. Well, we finally stopped for our last snack of the day at the fallafel and gyro stand. I ordered a gyro, while my daughter looked suspiciously on. We sat down and I tried it-OK but not the same as the gyros of my youth. My daughter finally worked up the nerve to approach the cook to demand what it was made of. “Goat”, he replied. We discretely got up and I pitched it, uneaten, into a trash can some distance away. Isn’t it wonderful to be completely irrational?

Al – at 22:31

Also I forgot to add that MDI had a 3 point something earthquake several days ago. Does anyone know how the panflu conference went on Wednesday?

bird-dog – at 22:57

Oh Al, I’m so envious that you made it to the fair! and so happy for you! The goats are a favorite of mine too and the percherons and the cows and the highland cattle and the enormous pigs and on and on and on. It’s such a lively and humane event. Did you buy any wool? I may rally tomorrow if the weather isn’t too nasty.

Here’s an article with comments regarding the meeting on Wednesday from the Kennebec Journal >>> http://tinyurl.com/qv3m5. I was sorry to not be able to make it.

and the link for the Avian Flu ( Bird Flu ) | Maine Health Forum: ›>> http://tinyurl.com/ophky

24 September 2006

“The Last Town on Earth” on NPR – at 09:01

I’ll find the link later…. b-d

The Last Town on Earth on NPR – at 09:12

I have the book and plan to start it soon (when I can extricate myself from the F-W’s clutches one of these nights…if you know what I mean!!! My a** is starting to morph— d. ulcers anyone? )

NPR >>> http://tinyurl.com/qthfw

TOM MULLEN

Audio for this story will be available at approx. 1:00 p.m. ET

Weekend Edition Sunday, September 24, 2006 · Host Liane Hansen interviews Tom Mullen, author of “The Last Town on Earth” (Random House, ISBN: 1400065208) , a historical novel set in the town of Commonwealth in Washington state. The story takes place in 1918 at the height of the flu epidemic and a community gripped by fear tries to prevent an outbreak of the disease by keeping anyone from entering or leaving the town. (7:44)

MAV in Colorado – at 13:39

thanks to all for the open arms. I’m crackin’ up, ROTF (bird-dog – at 12:39 ayah, it’s comin down ha’d.)

Soo much to look into from a preppers point of view. Not just BF you know! Do the prevailing winds run up the coast or southernly? Nearest nuclear plants, other terrorist targets etc, etc. Its taken me quite a while to scope out the risk factors associated issues here in the rural Rockies. My emergency solar set up will be less efficient up there I guess. Wind turbines sound good. Not sure how consistent the winds are around Bangor. Much to do, much to do!

Al – at 14:03

MAV, lots of wind in Maine, even in Bangor, not to worry. In less windy locations, just erect the turbine high up on the lightweight mounting kits they sell. Since I live on the coast, I’m just going to use the mast because it’s there, stuck on the end of my house and well grounded. I’ve seen those lightweight AirX turbines mounted on suburban homes up here to supplement solar panels. There are also plenty of homes up here off grid or utilizing solar energy. Here on the coast, it’s a big selling point for resale.

Nuclear plants? None in the state anymore, I believe. The plant in Wiscasset closed years ago. The nearest one is in New Hampshire, Seabrook, I think. Small solar arrays, enough to power several compact flourescent lights, a laptop and a small LCD color tv, would work well here in Maine, I’m told. There are probably some terrorist and defense targets but the population is so small here, so is the risk, comparitively. Portland, Searsport and Eastport have ports but must be far down on the list of targets due to their relative minor importance and lack of proximity to population centers. Maine seems to have a tradition of self sustaining and community focused resilience and is likely to fare better than anywhere else I can think of in the United States. This place is very safe. Bangor has an international airport but it’s small and if one was SIP, then any contact with anyone would be unsafe, anywhere. Anybody else have thoughts on this?

NauticalManat 14:14

Would guess that the prevailing winds would be southeasterly in warm weather, or NW in cold, if they turn NE in a storm, that is what we NE folks call a nor’easter! and the weather can get very dicey!

No nukes in Maine, only one was in Wiscassit on the coast, but was shut down. I think it has been taken apart, but not certain. For sure though, the spent fuel is still on site like all the rest, awaiting some kind of decision where and when they will store all of it. Other risk factors include mostly power plant pollution from midwest, making Acadia National Park one of the most polluted in the nation on occasion.

NauticalManat 14:15

Would guess that the prevailing winds would be southeasterly in warm weather, or NW in cold, if they turn NE in a storm, that is what we NE folks call a nor’easter! and the weather can get very dicey!

No nukes in Maine, only one was in Wiscassit on the coast, but was shut down. I think it has been taken apart, but not certain. For sure though, the spent fuel is still on site like all the rest, awaiting some kind of decision where and when they will store all of it. Other risk factors include mostly power plant pollution from midwest, making Acadia National Park one of the most polluted in the nation on occasion.

MAV in Colorado – at 14:31

thanks. I have been prepped for and consider all threats equally. I wouldn’t even be seriously considering Bangor if I didn’t think it was in the top 10% safest places to be in this messed up period of history we are all living in. What implications do the proximity to Canada have? Any? just wondering. Bird migration? Weren’t there some confirmed LPAI birds found a few months ago?

I do really like the self sufficient way of life Mainers are know for. That and the fact that some of ‘em play hockey!!

Al – at 16:14

Well, shoreland birds are a risk here. But all migratory birds would pose a risk everywhere, I should think, eventually. The LPAI birds in Canada were found about 5 hours driving distance away. There are a few border crossings to Canada, hours up north but the birds don’t go through them! Seriously, however, potential terrorists might attract more attention up here so from that vantage point, it would be much safer than a state with a normal sized population.

Another positive for Bangor is the availability of really rural and really affordable real estate within easy commuting distance of downtown.

I suspect civil disorder would not pose the risk here that it might near major population centers due to the unusual character of the residents of this state-very innocent IMHO. Take a look at the crime statistics here—at least outside of southern Maine. More due to substance/alcohol abuse and domestic violence, less capital and property crime. Very telling. I make home visits for work and I’m struck by how most old time, rural and farms families up here (i.e. outside of southern Maine) are fully prepped, have “put food by” as a way of life, are used to living without power from time to time, have devised ways to access water without power, have generators, etc. Hunting, gathering farming and gardening is a way of life here. For years this state also had an “extraction” economy based on natural resources (fishing, quarrying, lumber). Lots and lots of fresh water up here. Stephen King is Bangor’s (and Maine’s) most famous resident but he also has a home in Florida. Any guesses as to where he’d isolate his family if TSHTF?

NauticalMan, I forgot to wish you happy anniversary so happy anniversary and many more!

MAV in Colorado – at 16:38

Thanks for the info Al “Another positive for Bangor is the availability of really rural and really affordable real estate within easy commuting distance of downtown”

Thats is something I am looking forward to investigating. I will be working in Bangor but would like to find some “really rural” acerage within 30 minutes of town. I love the woods and trees.

25 September 2006

NauticalManat 00:08

Al, thank you for the anniversary good wishes.

29 September 2006

bird-dog – at 11:12

Hi Everybody!

We’ve been quiet here for a few days and I hope you are all ‘gettin it together’ and enjoying the process when you can.

I’ve been agonizing over canned butter ‘n cheese, Black Berkeys vs White Berkeys, moving canned items from the barn to the house, marking the ex. dates and contents on the tops, sorting them by year, carring them down into my wet crawl space, placing them in plastic totes, marking the totes, checking my grains, flours, beans, etc. for bugs, still ‘thinking’ about using my oxygen absorbers, moving a cord of wood from my driveway so as to allow the d**m tree guys to get their equipment in on Tues to take down my tree, and on and on and on. Plus I’ve been fighting a chest cold. I did get a single prescription of Tamiflu and have another to be filled later. The drug store said that that was all they had at the moment! There was much hushed discussion between the pharmcists. Hmmmm

{I also have been spending MUCH time alerting my Senators to vote for the Specter Amendment. Hopefully the Supreme Court will address this insanity and protect our rights. It literally makes me sick. Sorry for the comments but… Grrrrr.}

MY HOUSE IS A MESS and I’m looking forward to getting everything put away. When that happens I’ll mosey over to the animal shelter and gaze into to some deep dark eyes for awhile. I feel confident that I’ll find a match! Plus this extra time is giving ‘the girls’ including Fiona a safe space for working things out between them.

The kitties are fabulous and I’ve been letting the outside (with bell-collars on) for a few hours during the day with supervision (ya right!) and they are loving it. One got out last week at dusk and I couldn’t find her for what seemed like hours so the bells are good for alerting the birds and for me finding them when I need to. A poor poor mouse was batted about for over an hour last night.

There was an article in my local paper the other day >>> “Brunswick hospitals gear up for ‘overdue’ pandemic”

 >>>> http://tinyurl.com/fnljy

It was great to see that they’re preparing but these quotes were not helpful IMO!

“There really isn’t much to treating flu, so it can be done at home if you’re careful about sterilizing,” she said.

“Treating flu symptoms is the same whether its seasonal flu or pandemic avian flu. The main focus is to reduce fever, prevent dehydration and encourage bed rest.”

I have to run but I’ll check in later. Hope you all are doing well!!! I’m on my way to Damariscotta to the Green Store and the stove shop/hardware store, and the health food store. Maybe Moody’s too! I’m picking up a friend who has several hours to kill while his car is being worked on. He helped me with my wood. Nice guy!

30 September 2006

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 10:38

Hi birddog - hellish week here. Youngest child with concussion/ruptured eardrum/puncture wound one inch hand. Older boy hovering with worry. Cellar flooded - broken drainage pipe washing machine, but no preps ruined as all elevated thank goodness. Only prepping this week is mylaring/o2 absorbers to cereals and crackers. Actually quite a lot, which is good. More of this kind of munchie food than I thought.

Please be careful with this respiratory infection. I am seeing a lot of secondary pneumonias, even in my young 20ish clients. Be cautious, OK?

What are Berkeys?

My house is a mess too, so much so that it’s depressing me and I plan to reclaim some space today!

I hope you made it to shelter! Hope beautiful pup chose you!

Take care and enjoy this beautiful day!

bird-dog – at 12:39

Oh boy, Lisa. I’m so sorry to hear about your youngest! That must hurt so much. Please tell him that your friend ‘bird-dog’ says ‘Hi’ and she hopes that he feels MUCH better soon. Did this give you any new ideas on survival for you guys during SIP?

Thank goodness your preps were ‘OK’! Whew. BTW, where did you get your mylar bags and what size did you order?

The Berkey is something Edna Mode has been touting(?) on the water thread. Here’s the website >>> http://tinyurl.com/fvuhz, but a better picture and description is here >>> http://tinyurl.com/gvopf. Out of the blue, someone paid me back a loan so I ordered the Big Berkey (Black…thanks edna mode!) AND the SteriPen (made in Maine and I received it Thurs. and is soo easy and compact. Can only treat clear water hence the Berkey.) and I just ordered 12 cans each of butter and cheese. I think that LAWKI will be incredibly different; at least water is not a problem now. (I also paid off my credit card. I’m feeling much gratitude to tptb {same as Tom DVM’s}.).

I saw an amazing wood-stove >>> http://tinyurl.com/hgxjr <<< yesterday in Damariscotta that has a removable area on top to load wood or use as a grill or hold a pot for cooking; very efficient too but very pricey. I hope to go to a local Jotal shop today to see their stoves. Would definitely need to take out a loan… need to anyway for the poor tree.

I’ve been drinking alot of ginger tea, throat coat, gypy cold care, eating lots of vit C., honey, zinc lozenges, occiccilium(sp?), and more. Feel like I’m under water though.

I need to get caught up on the news here. AND my way out-of-control house awaits me. D**M bags/totes/containers/cans EVERYWHERE!!! I hate it. So much to do.

Take care and I hope your boys move quickly past this event. So sorry…

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 19:27

What a time to give up smoking. Boys dad home today, from Bali. It took him 2 days to get home and the minute he got out of the plane he was calling to see them. Indonesia is getting hot and he has no clue. Still no warnings from his company. And no report of warnings from his Indo friends. He was there for start of Ramadan and things seem to be carrying on as usual for the people of Bali. He brought me home the most beautiful handcarved triparite carving of Buddah in child, adult, old aspects. It latches like a round heavy wooden box and opens to the three hinged together but separate carvings. Incredibly beautiful, and he was so excited to give it to me because he knew I would find it exquisite…the whole thing made me so sad. The day when I can’t bring him his boys after such a trip until incubation completed is very, very near, and I see how much he craves them after a separation like this. I am very sad for him and the boys and me and the rest of the world. Things seem inevitable at this point, new infections a constant simmer in the background, white noise starting to humm. My throat is heavy and constricted with this sadness. When I was buying (more) nicotine gum today the 20ish girl who was the cashier expressed shock at the total. She asked “Have you tried to give it up without this stuff?” I smiled and said “oh yes. It’s not a pretty site”. She looked at me so sweetly and said “Well, I’m glad you’re doing it. My dad just died in April of lung cancer”. Oh dear. Poor sweet girl who has now robbed me of any selfpitying excuse to go buy cigs to dull the ache in my throat. Time to rent something on-demand, which I never do, but really need something mindless tonight. Maybe a chick-flick, and I can cry with the heroine. Nite all.

And birddog - all the remedies in the world are meaningless if you don’t let a tired body get the extra rest it asks for to heal. Are you giving yourself that? Extra rest?

01 October 2006

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 13:44

birddog - “I must say though I was thinking that I might not ever see or talk to her again.” I see that you’re sad too. What a very heavy thought, that you might not see her again. I’m sorry. And you’re right about the Dalai Lama. I wonder what his thoughts are on this?

Here is mylar site: http://tinyurl.com/pwuz6. I got 10″ by 14″ and 8″ by 10″ bags. Larger ones hold 5lbs flour, 6lbs rice easily. Smaller ones I use for cereals/crackers/cake mixes etc… I use the 200 and 100cc o2 absorbers for large bags, 50cc for smaller bags.

I had looked at the Harman stoves a while back. Beautiful and heavy.

Now I want a Berkey, really badly. How can that be? Something I didn’t know existed yesterday I’m absolutely longing for today. It’ll go on the list, in 3rd position.

Hope your day is good!

bird-dog – at 14:28

Thanks Lisa. I wrote you a long post last night (late) and then lost it. So frustrating. I’m a one finger type’r- something to work on during SIP <;)> so the posts take awhile to create (really it’s my brain…<G>).

Isn’t the Berkey beautiful! I have to use Brittas on all my water(well) and even then it’s still full of minerals/iron so I’ll be saving $$ in the long run. That’s my other excuse anyway.

I saw the Jotul stoves yesterday and they cost less than the Harman and are also beautiful. I have a ‘Jotul 8′ now but as I said before, is very inefficient— the catalytic deal has rusted away, etc. I still have to talk to my credit union about a loan.

Regarding the Dalai Lama…we could all write to him; it couldn’t hurt. Did you ever see ‘The Last Emperor’? I’ve loved that movie for years. So sad though.

I’m starting to want a manual grain grinder. I had one 30 years ago when I was eating somewhat macrobiotically and I loved it. It disappeared when I moved from the Phila. area to Maine. I wish that I had it now. It seems silly for one person to have though but I truely love the process of grain to bread. Deeply satisfying…

And the day goes by… and I have a MILLION chores to do rather than read the fluwiki for hours and hours! I hope your day goes well too. bye.

bird-dog – at 14:40

Thanks for the mylar site…amazing. I will defintely order some bags from there.

{Then they can sit around with my bag of oxygen absorbers and wait for me to get my a$$ in gear. DOH.}

02 October 2006

bluetide – at 20:26

Hello to fellow Mainers, I haven’t been following things too closely over the summer but have felt the need to stay on top of things during the past month. Bird-Dog and Lisa, it sounds as if you both are very well prepared. I feel most times that it’s impossible to be as prepared as I will need to be. Between having three big kids that can eat the whole house (but wouldn’t touch rice or beans) and being limited financially it seems quite daunting. I am wondering if any one from Maine has natural gas and has contacted the natural gas company about their preparedness. It is nice to read other Maine citizens’ posts, since anyone I actually have mentioned this to looks at me a bit strangely.I did contact the person in charge of the pandemic / business planning conference about audio or video from portions of the conference but she wasn’t aware of any plans in that regard.Did anyone here attend?

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 21:19

bluetide - I feel that same sense of impossibility…still so much to do and wallet bottomed out a couple of months ago. But still, we are in a much better position to get by than we were 6 months ago.

I was unable to go to the conference and I don’t think bird dog or Al did either. If you can get cd/video please post, I’d be very interested. One paper said 1000 people attended, which is a lot compared to other similar events. I felt better when I heard that number. The ripple effect of a person who went updating their business or doctors office or school system could be considerable.

It seems like forever since you’ve checked in here on the Maine thread. I hope all is well with you and your family. Take care. Lisa

bluetide – at 21:32

Thanks, Lisa. Have you thought about or tried to get Tamiflu from a doctor around here? My (unfortunately new to me) doctor, when I asked her what she thought of avian flu, replied that she doesn’t operate like that, she simply treats what’s in front of her. I didn’t pursue it. My children’s doctor doesn’t even want to give them a flu shot, so I know that’s hopeless….. I’m determined to get us all the flu and pneumonia vaccine this fall, though , especially with the posting a few days ago that said the flu shot may offer some slight protection since the ‘N’is the same in both.

NauticalManat 22:49

bluetide

Here in MA the public health nurse gave both DW and I our pneumonia vaxs early this year no charge. You might want to check with your town/city public health department. My town also gives the flu shot free for Medicare patients usually in October, $5 for all others. And other years the pneumonia shot is also available at the same time.

hello to all my Maine friends, been busy, youngest married this past weekend, nice time. Gave them (both daughters) Doctor Woodson’s book and Tamiflu for all of them including the new spouse months ago, but do not know that either have done any prepping. Sigh! even hard to get immediate family persuaded. Hope all of you Down Maine are well, Lisa, bird-dog, Al. Now that the above is past, will try and figure what is left to prep that I can still afford to do. Noticed one of those “use only indoors” log racks in Bean’s catalog, maybe I can make room next to the existing one in the garage which would give me about two face cords of wood, think that would be close to a real cord, maybe enough to get me through a month in the coldest part of Winter if, sorry, WHEN, TSHTF. Hate to be morbid, but seeing all those vibrant happy young people enjoying themselves the other day made me think that they might possibly be the hardest hit in that age bracket. God help us all.

04 October 2006

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 17:27

bluetide - I’ve been given the moral :”well if we let everyone stockpile there won’t be enough for emergency workers”…”how could I make the choice to do it for you and not for all of my patients?”…etc…to which I replied Roche hasn’t declared shortage, and, you could do it for me because I asked and you could do it for all of your patients if you chose”. Anyway, I ended up getting a nurse practitioner friend of mine to write the script, which is not a nice thing to ask her to do. I’m going back to boy’s doctor next week with Reuter’s Roche press release from Monday in which the company says there will be plenty of tamiflu avail this flu season, and I’m going to ask again (double dosing issue, need more). I am getting boys and hopefully self flu vac and pneumovac this year. Neither my boy’s doctor nor my NP friend have received their vaccines from supplier yet and even if boy’s doc has it in in time for their Nov. physicals, I was told the vaccines would not be given during this time, that I’d have to call for their flu clinic dates. Seems unnecessary to me, would enhance efficiency to administer with appts I would think. Frustrating, the resistance we run into. Frustrating and unnecessary.

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 17:31

Oh NauticalMan - there was a bittersweet essence to that wedding, wasn’t there? I’m glad it was a nice time. You know, there is a possibility that the s**t won’t hit. That possibility does exist. But I’m still trying to push with my preps too. Also pushing vit. D (non-synthetic) on everyone I know at this point! Take care and stay in touch, Lisa

bluetide – at 19:39

Lisa in Southern Maine: It’s funny you should mention getting a script from a friend, that is how I am getting the flu and pneumonia vaccines;in fact, she told me she had so much vaccine left over last year she had to throw alot out! my kids are not compromised health wise, but they do volunteer work with people who are and I believe that reason ‘qualifies’ them to get the shots, too, from their doctor. I’m not optimistic about the Tamiflu script, but I am printing the article you mentioned as well as another showing the drastically lowered death rate from flu when Tamiflu is used. If those don’t work, I am forced to order online, which is sketchy and expensive.Did you fill your scripts all at once or are you holding on to them? My next concern is figuring out emergency heat;I’ve heard it’s supposed to be a cold snowy winter.I guess they can’t all be like last winter.

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 20:19

bluetide - I filled the scripts immediately, and will again if I can get more. Can your friend write you a script? Can you get her to get one written to her for you? Underhanded I know, but if you trust her and she knows someone…I’m working on the heat issue too. Trying for wood stove - saw small one with top burner for 700.00 at local store. Would suit us fine, but installation would run cost up and trying to work out how to afford this with both kids birthdays and holidays approachng and recently slammed with back to school shopping cuz damn kids won’t stop growing! There are some reputable on-line pharmacies, but they require a script too. And yes, according to the nut-collecting squirrels of my neighborhood, it’s going to be a viscious winter. Tell me what you decide on the heat. If I can’t pull off wood stove which is strong number one choice, then propane heater must suffice.

bluetide – at 20:34

Lisa: I ordered the Mr. Buddy propane heater the other day. That and a few barbecue size tanks will get us by for a brief period of time.I felt the need to get something in place soon for some reason. I am looking in craigslist daily for a fireplace insert for our FP (wood burning) Buying anything like that used makes me nervous, though. We are going with a direct vent natural gas stove downstairs. We have two chimneys on our 1st floor, but the chimney guys said it was way way expensive to break through the wall and through the chimney and then line it too. So. A little overwhelming. And we just had a birthday too, I thought ‘I’ve been through 39 birthday parties so far with these children no wonder I’m tired of them’ but then of course seeing the look on their face as you are singing Happy Birthday makes it (mostly) worth it.

Al – at 22:14

Hello Mainer friends and others, been offline due to lots of work and other stuff. Lisa, I still haven’t totally solved my heat issue either and I can’t afford one either. I know a new woodstove, installation and multiple cords of wood will run over 2k. I’m attracted to the idea of burning wood-and I love the smell! But the cost to do it really safely is more than I can handle. What a pity since I keep looking at them and torturing myself. Plus, I can’t expect chimney sweepersons to make sure our chimney is maintained long term. I’ve got to get a good, low maintenace back up plan together soon for heating and cooking and am feeling some urgency about it. So far, I’m invested in bulk propane which is our primary heating and cooking fuel anyway. I also have oil heat here which is ungodly expensive and requires annual maintenance and requires electricity to run. So I’m thinking about having the plumber add antifreeze to all our pipes now so if everything shuts off, we won’t have frozen pipes and unnecessary destruction. I don’t have enough propane on site. I only have a 100 pound propane tank at present and the LP company re-supplies as needed. Can’t count on that so we need a long term supply. I want a 400 pound tank to store about a year and a half’s worth of propane for cooking and heating but they are big, ugly and obvious, unlike the smaller 100 pound tanks. So I need to have work done outside before the LP company can put their 400 pound tank in. I’m planning to put it in my puppy’s little bathroom yard which is a small 10 x 8 stockade fenced-in area off our covered back porch. The 6 ft stockade fence height is just tall enough to hide a 400 pound LP tank from casual view. And, hopefully, the puppy won’t vandalize the tank. I don’t want a tank sitting visible out in my front, side or back yard. And even if we increase our bulk propane supply, I’m concerned about not having a second source of heat, just in case we happen to outlast our big propane supply.

Bluetide, funny you should mention the Mr. Buddy heater. I’ve been thinking about getting one as well for the second method of heat—just in case. That may be the cheapest back up plan of all, certainly well under a thousand, including 20 pound canisters. Perhaps the little Mr. Buddy its enough for us to survive if we confine ourselves to living and sleeping in one big room -most likely the kitchen-all winter long which up here is seven months long. What I’m wondering is if I can just go out and buy $600 or $700 worth of those 20 pound propane canisters and stash them, covered with a tarp, under our porch until needed. Do you have to put them in a garage? It would be nice to be able to hide them, instead, close and accesable to the house and I like the fact that I can handle them and they’re not too heavy to carry. Amazon sells the really long hose connections for the tanks. It looks low maintenance to me. The Mr. Buddy Heater plus maybe 15 or 20 canisters ($40 apiece?) might give us bare bones survival heat for an extra winter. We also live in an awfully large rambling very old house so I guess planning on one room living is the answer for us.

I’m so nervous about using wood to heat. I think that maybe old creasote, build up over the years before I lined the chimney when I bought the house, seeped so far into the old masonry chimney that it gave off a strong “burned toast” kind of smell when I really cranked up the woodstove several years ago. I was freaked out about it and never used it again. I’ve since had the chimney inspected by a chimney sweep who said it looked cleaned and he saw no creosote. But the experience and the memory of that smell makes me very wary. My woodstove is a truly tiny, little bitty non-airtight Uncle Henry’s special that cost me $50 seven years ago.

I’m giving up birthday parties this year. I nearly had a nervous breakdown when my little one’s birthday party was poorly attended due to her two best friends no-showing. She was heartbroken and I was as well, for her. I’m going to give us all a break this year and have her pick one special friend to do something with, maybe dinner out and a movie or a sleep-over.

05 October 2006

bluetide – at 13:55

AI: As far as the propane tank storage goes for the Mr.Buddy ( I got mine at WalMart online), they can be stored outside and can get to below zero temperatures and still be functional. What I’m not certain of is how many can be safely / legally stored on my property since I live in a large (for Maine, haha) city.You know, I seem to remember reading that there is a device on some large propane tanks that can be used for BBQ grills. If that’s the case, you wouldn’t need separate tamks for the Mr. Buddy.

NauticalManat 21:48

Hi Al, don’t know about the present state of your chimney, but if a sweeper says it is clean it probably is. I burnt wood about four years and supplied about 75% of the heat for my house in the NW suburbs of Boston and never had a creosote problem. With stove in basement, had a tremendous draft, threw in a cup of chemical chimney cleaner once a week and made sure to burn it fairly hot all day to make up for the slow night time burn, and once a day, usually before my slow overnight burn, opened up the drafts and did a very hot burn for half hour or so. Did the professional sweep every year, but never much build up. As long as your burning dry hardwoods should not be a major problem, IMHO. Propane heater Mr Buddy sounds like a viable alternative, but storage as you say, can be a problem.

06 October 2006

Al – at 14:04

Thanks, NauticalMan. Did you ever experience such an intense burned toast smell as I described? I smelled it mostly on the floor above the one where I was operating the stove. This was on an occasion where I really cranked the stove up and had gotting it burning very hot. Is that smell a sign of anything significant? I also noticed that there were what looked like creosote stains leaching through the masonry wall enclosing the chimney up on the 2nd floor. That’s why I wondered if there could be old creosote built up in the chimney before I had the chimney lined when I bought the house 8 years ago. It’s a very old 1780 cape…

NauticalManat 16:04

Hello Al

Never had that kind of an odor when burning my stove. More than likely there was some creosote in the chimney before lining it, but would think that it might not have been significant if they were able to install a liner. If the creosote stains were produced AFTER the liner was installed, then I would worry, but if they were there it was probably old leakage. Might want to check the pointing of the chimney bricks. If that chimney is as old as the house a repoint might be needed. Did you have a clay liner installed or one of the newer stainless steel types. They usually work well from what I have heard. Another possibility is that the heat going through the liner is liquifying some of the old buildup between it and the brick. Not an expert as they say, so you might want to look into that further. Had my stove chimney built special for mine from basement up, a friends Dad who was 65 or so to my 35 at the time and a bricklayer did it for nothing and I helped. Could barely keep up with him at the time. He passed on last year and was close to 90, tough old guy! A good wood stove is very expensive, so there are a lot of pros and cons, but wood in Maine is a lot cheaper than here in the city areas, probably cheaper than heating with oil for you if you do not mind the work and can deal with all the safety issues. The old timers must have been happy when they went to coal, remember having a hot air coal furnace when I was a kid in the 50′s, and how great it was to have an oil burner installed and all you had to do was push the thermostat rather than shovel that dusty coal! Hope I live long enough to see my house heated by a fuel cell that also provides some of my electricity and uses a lot less fuel than we do now. My oil burner man tells me they have them now on experimental basis, but will be years before technical and cost issues are solved and they are available in average home.

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 20:13

Hi Maine People! Hope all are well. Cleaned out Renys today. New blankets, landline phone, Camera for computer so that I can work from home - for use with clients who have same setup. Compass. Whistles. Canned roast beef and chicken and clams. Bernie-Os. Toms of Maine refill hand soaps. Little forgotten medical things like adult strength anbesoland more bandaids. And 20 premade Indian meals (this was the splurge!), palek paneer, alu matar and many others. Some birthday gifts for the boys, both coming up in next 5 weeks.

Al - I too am tortured by my desire for a wood stove and my need for an ongoing alternate heat source. I’ve finally decided to do it bit by bit. Will get handyman (whom I don’t have yet, but I know who I want) to build cheap wood rack outside in next 2 weeks. This month, I’m going to buy an inexpensive stove. We just need a small one. I’ll work on the set up over next 2 months and get a delivery in there somehow. I can’t do this unless I break it down. And if it’s not all done this year at least I’ll be started for a 2007 completion. I have a friend who reminds me that as long as I have an axe I don’t need to ever run out of fuel with a wood stove. That sticks in my mind. Lots of woods here, with lots of old dry trees on the ground. I probably won’t get stove up and running for this winter, at least the early part, but piecemealing it feels better than shelving the idea as a whole.

Can’t you sink a 400lb tank?

“I nearly had a nervous breakdown when my little one’s birthday party was poorly attended due to her two best friends no-showing. She was heartbroken and I was as well, for her.” This breaks my heart too! My boys have always been happy with friends to movies and a night out to the CD store and the restaurant of their choice. Boys are easier with the birthday party thing anyway.

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 20:23

Bluetide - tell me how your mrbuddy works out. I’ve never actually seen one. Any progress on tamiflu rx?

Bird-dog - new pup?

NauticalMan - saw pbs special on fuel cells and expo of different college research and development teams cells. More progress apparent in that area than I ever would have guessed. Love PBS! MIT and UMaine were leaders of expo, having fully functional little houses operating on their cell designs. Should be ready for our grandkids!

Al – at 20:30

The hydrogen fuel cell booth was jam packed at the Commonground fair up here. I think I better have a masonry person look at that chimney for repointing and overall integrity. I don’t remember what I had it lined it with. I had 3 chimneys lined when I bought the house out of a total of five chimneys here. This one was either stainless steel or Supaflu poured and now I don’t remember anyone which was which! I wish my old Italian stone mason friend were still around, he used to build the most beautiful fireplaces. Is a good wood stove a necessity or are

I just want to know if I can use it as my backup plan #3 for heating in a pinch. You know how it is here in the winter. On the coast it’s better than inland but you just can’t survive up here without heat. I can’t see myself chopping wood. At the hardware store they told me they sold coal for burning in wood stoves, that you had to get the fire hot with wood first, then add the coal which will burn slower. Is that safe do you think?

Al – at 21:01

Lisa, it’s amazing how much of a basketcase one can become over a child’s traumas. My so called professional detachment evaporates when it comes to my own child. Today I handled things better. When she climbed, conservatively, 30 feet (at least) up the old spruce tree, I tried to keep the panic out of my voice when I discovered her and ordered her down. After she got down safely, I practically hyperventilated in private.

I’ve been eyeing those cheaper local hardware stores wood stoves too. Well, I’ll just get the Mr. Buddy cause it’s the cheapest option right now. But wood may be the best #3 backup option for us-the backup (bulk propane) to the backup (lille Buddy, bbq propane tanks) to the backup (wood). I guess your friend is right-note to self, get an axe.

Which woodstove are you getting? I scoped more out today at Aubochon Hardware today. I have this older cast iron midget of a woodstove, Scandia, I think. No glass doors, but it seems to work, other than my fear of the state of the chimney. I like you’re idea of doing things in stages. I get everything done here the same way, by chipping away at things a little bit at a time. Today I geared up my preps since we’ve been eating quite a few of the canned goods recently. For the first time, I got comments at a store (“what are you doing? Planning on living on a boat?” at one store, “are you buying for a daycare center?” at another). When I bought over 20 boxes of Bandaids at a third store for $1 a box-Bandaids are very special around here-the clerk looked at me horrified and asked me if I was “planning on being hurt a lot”! I just smiled and murmurred “daycare center”.

Lisa, I remember something you posted cautioning not to use synthetic vitamin D3. I have several bottles of them from Sams Club (members’ mark, I think). Is synthetic no good?

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 21:52

Al - I don’t have the links for synthetic vitamin info - it in my head. Remember the much publicized report about vitE not being protective as previously thought? About 2–3 years back? In the study, the participants had used syntheticE, which was later found to actually increase free radical activity as opposed to decreasing it. When users of nonsyntheticE were studied, they showed decreased free radical activ, as did those people who ate high E diets. I have a very strong supplement bias and always urge whole-food and nonsynthetic supplements. Our bodies just know what to do with them. There has been much research on absorption and utilization of different mutivits. Those with synthetic ingredients are excreted at rates of up to 80%, while some whole-food vits have been shown to be up to 80% utilized. A couple of my favorite docs, Russel Blaylock and Andrew Weil, probably have some data about this on their sites.

The woodstove I have my eye on is at a local stove store and I can’t find the pamphlet I took home that gives name/description. I’m sure the info is lost forever, at least in this house, and I’ll have to go back to the store to find out. Such is my life!

“Another possibility is that the heat going through the liner is liquifying some of the old buildup between it and the brick” - now that’s a smart man! I considered your cresote problem, and never came up with that one. And I’ll bet he’s right. We’ll have to draft him to Maine for good. Hear that, NauticalMan? You are unappreciated down their in Mass. Come on up and start living life the way it should be!

It really sounds as though you’re doing well with heat backup, even without the woodstove.

Renys has some good, cheap axes right now. And I attracted a lot of notice today too. The checkout girl was laughing as I kept filling up her little counter space with yet more stuff. It was the magic shopping cart that had a neverending supply of items!

I laughed when I read your tree-climbing paragraph, remembering when my oldest, who was a rabid climber in his younger, shorter years, went waaayyyy up, about 40 feet, and I tried to keep my voice measured, calm, my “Lisa to 3rd floor stat” demeanor, coaxing him down slowly…then whole body with shakes and fuzzy-head when his feet were back on the ground. He was so proud! The higher branches didn’t look strong enough to hold a squirrel!

20 boxes of bandaids? Lord, I thought I was doing well at 3!

Reny’s has canned Indian pudding!

07 October 2006

bird-dog – at 00:37

Hi you-all!!

“Reny’s has canned Indian pudding!”

Yes, LOL, I bought some there too a ways back. <G> My Dad and I were the only ones in our family who liked it so it has a special significance to me. I’ve never had it out of a can though, only in restaurants. Ummm steamy hot, ummmm molasses, ummmm corn meal, ummmm melted vanilla ice cream.

This will be short- terrible head and chest cold as do the kitties and even Fiona. BF anyone? Definitely not very funny. Our poor world.

I’m worried about my sister in Delhi(arr.’d there Wed.,returns 12/24), I had a good experience with the very nice tree guys; able to save a third of the 80 ft pine, I bought a Family Grain Mill- Hand Base & Mill for under $120. from aaoobfoods (nice people!), I gave my copy of Will’s book to the tree guys after reading it & am going through Dr.Woodsons’s *new* book now (both excellent & great gifts!), filled a script for Relenza (exp. date 12/06 /;-(), moved all my canned goods into the house and maybe a half so far into the crawl-space. Plus I moved my 80 or so propane canisters(several yrs worth of collecting) into the barn from the house (have a 5 yr. old Mr. Buddy for back-up plus a small prop. Coleman stove and prop. light). I do recommend the Mr Buddy to you guys for another back-up for heat.

I haven’t been out and about for a few days so the hand mill is my major and only prep purchase of the week except for antibiotics for the cats and the Relenza. Lisa, sorry… no puppy yet my de’a - not until we’re all feeling better, my preps are put away, I’ve bought some more org red & white wheat berries, amaranth, oat groats, br. rice and aduki beans for long, long term storage. I might have to go with non. org. but I hope that I won’t have to. I didn’t buy the bells and whistles for the grain mill- no meat to grind and the flaker ‘n veg. graters aren’t necessary. Now if I’d had the $$ I probably could have talked myself into the big deal with even the electric parts…naaa. I *am* sooo excited about the simple hand mill though!

Actually, the vet and doctor bills must take precedent over everything for awhile, from now on. Thats OK! :-)

I’d better get back to bed. Hopefully tomorrow I’d be more communicative. Sleep tight!

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 10:07

Birddog - You’ve been sick since (at least) Sept. 30th. Please, please, please don’t let it go on too long without being seen, as many pneumonias even in 20ish people right now. And goldenseal is not going to do it if it’s descended and converted to pneumonia. Gotta get the big guns out, the cillins, etc…

Congrats on the grain mill.

You got so much done! It must be hard to be so productive right now when you are so sick…(Lisa, at her desk, biting back further unasked for pieces of advice such as ‘you need to be resting!’…oh look, she slipped the advice in in a slightly underhanded passive-aggressive manor. She just can’t help herself!).

I’m hoping your sister stays well too, birddog. Sorry you are worrying for her right now. Certainly strange goings-on in India.

Off to seize the day! Take care, gently and restfully! Lisa

Al – at 10:09

I almost forgot to mention, we felt the earthquake here BIG TIME. The whole house shook and I immediately knew what it was. Somewhat ominously, we live no where near Bar Harbor, although we’re closer to it than when I lived out of state. That’s why I’m wondering if anyone else here felt it further down the coast or was it just us?

Lisa, do you know a source for non-sythetic vitamins? Indian pudding, will pick up a can and try it-never had it actually. bd-get feel better soon! If you have some Sambucol, try it-it cuts cold short for us here, as does roasting garlic cloves.

NauticalMan, perhaps you might think about taking advantage of the slumping real estate market and rusticate up here! Maybe we’ll have even more coastline after a few more earthquakes.

Gotta go, off to Neurofeedback (That’s another topic!)

bird-dog – at 10:57

Thanks Lisa and Al! GOOD MORNING! ;-)

Really, it’s not *that* bad… but I do have some Sambucol in my preps so I’ll give it a shot. The kitties are on Baytril with pill pockets and vitamins (no fevers but elavated gamma-globulins(sp?)). I did have pneumonia 10 years ago and had a pneumovax vaccine a month or two ago. If I went to the doc and he gave me a preppable antibiotic would I save it for later? Hey maybe I could start taking my ‘fish meds’ and save the ‘good stuff’ for i/wtshtf! Thats my ‘prep’ mind for you. Of course I’d have to know first if I had a nasty bacteria or virus. I probably picked it up at the NorDx clinic when I had the porphyrin test interactions (no results yet/sent to Mayo C.).

Can anyone recommend a place to order bulk org. grain/beans in super-pails? I’ve looked at Honeyville, Em. Essen., AAOOB, all the ones mentioned in the ‘grain’ thread I think; so expensive for shipping from the West, or not org., or not super-pailed. I know that you Lisa have done it all yourself - you smaaat woman(!) but I just can’t seem to get it together. I have plenty of grains and beans in small bags and cans but I’d like these for years down the line and/or emergency food for neighbors. I’ve worked in natural food stores off and on for years so maybe I’ll ask in some of those. Is Wild Oats up and running yet in Portland? Anyway, thanks!

I’d better get to the vets before they close at 12.

Al, Neurofeedback looks very interesting! NauticalMan “do it”! Your family would *LOVE* to live here. bluetide, HI!, and MAV, any luck yet? I’ve seen that someone has been reading the wiki from the Bangor area and have wondered if it’s ‘you’ MAV.

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 16:55

Birddog - wild oats up since late 2002ish. They put themselves right next to the little healthfood store that’s been there since the 70s. Bas****s! I haven’t been to Portland in a while. I hope the little one survived. The die-hard crunchiegrungies like me kept going to the small one, and they did have bulk avaiability in bins at the back of their store. Some of the big names like Waltons offer organic brown rice and org.quinoa. Another thread yesterday said emerg. essentials offering free shipping for total order if certain number of special items purchased. That person (memory, oh memory, I have a vague recollection of what it was like when we lived together!) ordered 6? #10? cans granola and paid no shipping on larger order put in at same time. Check it out. Went to BJs today - more toilet paper, deod., water, dogfood, cerals - and they were having flu clinic. No line. $50.00 total for flu and pneu. vac. I wish I had the boys with me! But I’m done, and a bit lightheaded and spacey. My body really hates any outside unnatural ‘stuff’. But I’m glad to have this done. Did you get flu shot this year yet?

Hope kitties recover quickly.

I’m dying for a cigarette! Time to chew the 30th piece of gum today!

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 17:17

Birddog - here’s that post, from flu prep 1million thread yesterday.

Scaredy Cat – at 17:51

If you order one of the “group specials” (as long as you order a certain minimum, e.g., 6 cans of mangos) you get free delivery for your entire order.

I did that recently with the granola they have on sale. Ordered 6 cans, free shipping for everything.

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 17:45

and this, from Honeyville grain today - Only $4.49 to ship your entire order, no matter how much you order.

Al – at 19:47

hang onto your wits, do not give into the tobacco jones. Does that gum help?

bird dog, hope the cold gets better. You were fortunate to get an rx for Relenza. I didn’t think it was available anywhere.

Anyone know what happens if you get the pneumonia vax 2 years in a row?

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 19:56

Al - I’m hoping a bitingly hot curry will knock this extended nicotine craving out of my system. The gum does help, but you need to remember to use it enough to deflect worse cravings.

Did you get pneumovax 2 years in a row? If so, you won’t be the first. No major ill effects if you do alright with vac ingredients. I promise it won’t kill you!

MAV in Colorado – at 20:11

You all sound like your doing great-preppin’ away. Thinking about a possible move out there and I gotta tell you, I was a lot “lighter” before all this prepping. I’m sure between all the canned goods, generator, fuel, water and gas cans, ammo etc,etc, etc, I must be a ton heavier. The movers will love me!

BD-no, I’m still in CO but will be out to Bangor the 26th for a week or so, checking things out and “workin’ the deal”!

bird-dog – at 21:50

Lisa - sorry, I meant ‘Whole Foods’! I completely agree!

 I always go to ‘the Whole Grocer’ for everything except for Wild Oats’es smoked wild salmon. Great price! My neice worked there (W. G.) for a year when she and her now ‘ex’ were living in Portland before moving back to England where he was from. I ended up buying org. wheat berries, rye, oat groats, aduki beans, Fiona’s granola (Grandy Oats Classic!) and smoked oysters, kippers, lots of remedies to refill my homeopathic kit, some more natural vit D(!), some Traumeel cream (use it every night on my hands and ankles/feet for pain), some more Sambucol syrup, some more cider-mate, an enormous choc. chip cookie, some cooked rice and autumn stew, and probably more. I also bought some test strips for my Miox-pen filter at the sporting goods store where I had orginally bought the filter. 

The Whole Grocer is doing very well! Certainly a different crowd than the one next door! Much more interesting/earthy. Whole Foods now owns the store but the same people are working there and one occasionally sees Whole Foods labels on goods. Great sale on org. peanut butter! Oh, I did buy some cashew butter too.

As far as bulk goes, Honeyville only sells in bags not pails and does not offer organic AFAIK. I bought all my dehydrated fruits, vegetables, whole eggs, Mexican hot chocolate, and oxygen absorbers from them. Very prompt service on both orders! Emergency Essentials and Waltons are both possibilities but one doesn’t have aduki beans & I can’t remember the problem I had with the other. I’ll let you know what i decide to do. Now that I have *some* whole grains I’ll be able to whip out the mill and try it immediately when it arrives.

No cigs for me either and am getting ‘lock-jaw’ from all this chewing. One after another…chain chewing! It does make me feel better on one level. Just one…

I haven’t had my flu shot yet and up until last year was always able to get it for free as I often work with either elderly or immune-compromised people. The agency had to cut back. I’m sure I could get it free through the ALS Association or the MDA/ALS folks. They are great. I’ll get one maybe if/when I see my doc up here re. my cold(?). Years ago when I worked in the adult shelter I was even able to get the Hep series and TB tests too for free. The good old living-on-the-edge days. Oh well.

It was a beautiful drive back from Portland with the full harvest moon and Garrison on the radio. Just wished my dog was with me to enjoy it. <sigh>

Mav, hurry up before the leaves fall. They’re so amazing right now!!!

NJKME – at 22:05

Bird Dog - 10:57

Someone from the Bangor area reading the wiki - it might be me.

Hello to all the MaineUH’s.

I’m in Garland ~ 25 miles west of Bangor. MAV in CO -quite doable to work in Bangor but still have rural property. We have 20 acres 1/2 field, 1/2 woods. I would not want to live anywhere else. I very much enjoy the commute everyday into Bangor, there’s hardly any traffic.

I’m also a transplant, from Canada actually. I grew up in Nfld. and still have family there.

NauticalManat 22:14

MAV in Colorado, hope you have a nice trip and that you find Maine to your liking. Hope you feel better soon bird-dog, hope the “girls” and Fiona are well. Lisa, PBS has some great things on, always interesting. And thank you all, would love to move to Maine, but have two mothers in a nursing home and can not move anywhere right now. Course if I hit that big one, a Summer spot in Maine, and Winter somewhere warm sounds wonderful! Indian pudding! Mention of that brings back my first taste of it at Durgin-Park at Fanueil Hall in Boston about 45 years back. They still make it overnight in a slow oven, topped with that vanilla ice cream.. OMG, think I need a fix of oysters and some of that old Yankee cooking, pot roast to die for, and though I don’t eat that much meat anymore, a prime rib on an oval platter that overlaps both ends. After 130 years or so, they have managed to get it just about perfect! Still share a table with strangers, no A/C, but good old fashioned food, with gruff, but nice waitresses! Ah, I still love New England. Now if only we could cut Winter short!! Al, sounds like your chimneys are good to go. As long as you do a proper installation you should be fine. Forget cutting your own wood unless you are in good shape and like the exercise. It is dangerous and heavy work. Did it a few years, even bought logs, cut them up, split them renting a splitter, too much work. Buy it cut, split, dried, use it as back up or supplemental heat if it makes sense economically. For me that is not the case if I buy the wood, but it is great for a secondary emergency heat source. Price will be forgotten when the power is out. Almost forgot Lisa, we love the Tasty Bite Indian meals, yes, spicy, great flavors. Buy them right on line, sign up for their email and every so often they have a special discount, 10 or 20%, available by the six pack. Some are even Vegan, some vegetarian. Love the Bombay potatoes, various lentil meals, come in an MRE type retort package, shelf life about 18 months. I rotate them and eat some every week. Can you guess I love to eat! It is the Italian blood I think!

MAV in Colorado – at 22:16

Cool, thanks NJKME

I am coming from the spectacular southern Rockies in Colorado (elev. 7200′) so I am inclined (pun intended) to find a place with some hilly acreage if possible. Very encouraging so far. thanks

bird-dog – at 22:20

Welcome NJKME! I’m so glad that you spoke up! Garland *is* beautiful. It must be cool up there tonight.

My brother lives in Winterport and works at the University. He and his family love it up there, the last I heard.

I was wondering who that little-dot-on-the-map was <grin>!

Please stay in touch. We’re a wacky but friendly lot and *are* prepping. The more the merrier. b-d.

NJKME – at 22:56

MAV in CO - Well we do live in what’s called the Central Maine Highlands and there are a few hills around here but I don’t think we can quite compete with the Rockies. You mentioned GSP - the ultimate bird dog - Do you hunt? DH and I hunt upland and waterfowl - but we’ve come to the conclusion that ducks are probably out this year :{!

Hi there Bird-dog, yes supposed to be very cold tonight. ( And yes we did see that HUGE orange moon, spectacular!!) Yes we are prepping as well. DH bought me a shelf from Sam’s so that I could get all the food stuffs out of his work area but it’s starting to creep back in again **grin**. What map were you looking at by the way? Was it somewhere in the site meter. I’ll be popping in and out. It’s funny to see people discussing what’s at Reny’s since most folks on here have probably never heard of it. We are about 10 minutes from the original (at least I think’s it’s the original) in Dexter. The store sure seems like it’s the original, all the floors were wavy before they had them redone.

08 October 2006

MAV in Colorado – at 01:41

NJKME- GSP’s ARE the ultimate bird-dog! No, not a hunter, have had some great GSP’s though. Down to one now. Put down my “boy” down last month :( Looking forward to getting onto a few acres and having room for a couple more. Might consider trying some upland at some point though. Yeah, maybe not a good year for bird huntin’

Al – at 11:33

Hello, all. I think the original Renys might be in Damariscotta? Weird place to store preps? My cat litter box closet. He’ll be sharing his private spot with hundreds of cans. If an archeologist ever excavates this house after a thousand years, she will be very confused…

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 12:23

Bird-dog -

“Whole Foods now owns the store but the same people are working there and one occasionally sees Whole Foods labels on goods.” - this makes me sad! But I’m glad the staff are still there. Such a great place. I went there weekly while at USM for graduate school. Loved the place. Might have met your neice too!

“am getting ‘lock-jaw’ from all this chewing” - and I’m worried about my 30 year old fillings holding up to this strain!

“Just wished my dog was with me to enjoy it.” - So sorry. Nothing else to say here. Wish I could take that ache away, magic wand or something…

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 12:39

NauticalMan - I haven’t been to Durgin Park in probably 15 years! Quite a flashback. The last time was when my parents were still mobile and we took them there and then to a Chieftains concert at…small old music hall right in Fanuel hall area…name please? (memory, oh sweet memory, where art thou hiding dear memory?). Oh, Tammany (?) Hall! That’s it! Great concert. Great night. Grumpy stout waitresses. Love tipping for crusty New England attitude! Although I have about 60 Indian meals downstairs, I now plan to go to Tasy Bites website and sign up for their auto e-mail. Thanks NM!

NJKME - Welcome! What a beautiful area you live in! How are you set for back-up heat? This is the most pressing issue of my preps right now, and I’m always asking about it to others.

MAV - Halloween time is great here! Many of the leaves, so vivid right now, will have fallen, but it will still be gorgeous.

Hi Al! Hi Bluetide!

Al – at 14:29

bird dog, the loss never seems to go away. Her memory is how her spirit lives on in you. On a day to day basis, though, becoming partner to a new animal helps a bit.

Todays’ critter infestation (no I won’t kill or poison-don’t believe in it): ladybug, wasps and rats!

It’s always something here.

But I still love Maine. MAV, wait til you see the foliage up here!

NauticalMan, did you work for the Feds? Just saw the grid thread. Those signing statements are something, aren’t they?

MAV in Colorado – at 16:06

BD, I must be dense. Didyou loose a fury friend recently? Me too. Not quite 2 months ago I guess. I miss him too, such a unique character. My heart goes out to you!!!!

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 19:51

Al - wasps here too, black and brown. Hate those things! One ladybug. I pcked her up and put her outside.

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 20:00

mylared 25lbs Thai sweet rice today, and much cereal. Made haddock in yogurt sauce. Worked with my friend Joan chanting “I’m lucky, I’m lucky, I can walk under ladders…”. I’m distracted by the enigmatic reports from India, getting antsy for more defined information. The ex has trip to Holland next 2 weeks. I’m so glad not Asia again, was Indonesia, then Maylasia, then Indonesia again over last couple of months. Not that Holland will protect him/us if pandemic erupts, but comforting to have him out of the hot-zone while incubation period persists.

Bird-dog - can you get any info from your sister about situation in India?

NauticalManat 20:10

Al, just noticed your post, been out today, my Mom’s 86th b’day. Yes, spent about 41 years with the Federal Government, thought I made a difference, but was with an agency that had no political appointees, which, as we have seen of late, are not always of the highest quality nor have the best credentials, which is what grates on me so much when I read something like this FEMA appointee debacle. While we have always seen some appointees whose qualifications were not always obvious, at least they would be made ambassador of Elbonia or some such place they could do little damage, now it seems they are put in higher and higher places in order to do the most harm to the greatest number, as long as they are faithfull to their party or leader. Lisa in SM. You are someone after my own heart! I always capture the ladybugs, spiders etc., in a paper cup and release them outside. Sorry wasps, will not take the chance with you guys! Glad you remember Durgin Park so well. I think though that Tammany Hall was a corrupt political machine headquarters in NY back in the late 1800s, with Boss Tweed! There are a number of small musical venues though in that area that could have been where you were. Could have even been Fanuiel Hall itself, right next to Quincy Market where DP is located, very historic hall, been there since before the Revolution if memory serves me. Another glorious New England Fall day today, off to visit relatives in York, ME in AM, should be a copy of today. Best to all of you.

bluetide – at 22:23

Hi All,

 Lisa, I just read a few posts up that you got your flu and pneumonia vaccine. I’ve noticed a lot of clinics around the Portland area. If anyone else in Maine is looking for either shot, you can go to www.findaflushot.com and put in your zip code and they’ll display any local clinics for whatever range of dates you put in. My pediatrician won’t give my kids the pneumonia vaccine so I’m taking them to one of these places and hoping they will give it. It is definitely beginning to feel chilly and we are trying to find a low priced wood-burning insert for our only decent fireplace. The new ones are terribly expensive, it seems, at least the Jotul and Vermont Castings products I have seen. Is anyone else getting concerned about the ‘dengue’ in India? It’s making me nervous that some folks on this site think it could be H5N1. I keep thinking that surely the symptoms can’t be so similar that doctors throughout the country would, en masse, confuse the two???

09 October 2006

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 13:32

Bluetide - at BJs, age cutoff for kids and pneumovax was 9. At other clinics, it’s 14. And yes, I’m concerned about the dengue too. But in India thread, one of the people said if it was h5n1 going h2h, it would already be all over the world. Not an exact quote, but you get the meaning. Anyway, I thought about that and felt more relaxed because it’s true. Many more people would be sick and it wouldn’t be border confined…

NJKME – at 21:22

Evening All,

Lisa - You were asking about back up heat. Wood is plentiful around here so we have a heat producing fireplace, brand name is KozyHeat. The only problem is you can’t regulate it, sometimes you have to resort to throwing open windows and doors.

Bluetide - I was at the pediatrician’s this week as well, 2 yr. old had his yearly. Of course they have no flu vaccine in yet, call again in 2 weeks. I asked about the Pneumovax and he said I was the first parent to ask for it. Was all set to give it to him and my 4 yr. old but they were out of that as well. But what he did give me was 2 prescriptions for Tamiflu. I’ve been talking to him about H5N1 for over a year now so he knows my concerns. By the way his clinic has NO pandemic plan yet, hoping something comes out of the State Summit from a few weeks back. The clinic has ~6 pediaticians and is associated with Eastern Maine Medical Center. No plan, can you imagine? Even worse they used to be getting regular updates from CDC on H5N1 but absolutely no information coming out now. What the heck? Anyway here’s hoping you get your kiddies their vax!!

Well - Bird-dog and MAV I guess I’m feeling your pain. DH and I took our 15 yr. old GSP “Katie” to the vet to be euthanized today. It was time.

MAV in Colorado – at 22:14

aaaawwwwwwwwwhhhhhhhh (sad here for you NJKME) so sorry to hear that-have you ever read the “Rainbow Bridge” ? I will post below for all of us.

The Pneumovax for kids is different than the adult vaccine as I understand it.

MAV in Colorado – at 22:15

not sure how this will format-here goes

Rainbow Bridge

Just this side of heaven is a place called Rainbow Bridge.

When an animal dies that has been especially close to someone here, that pet goes to Rainbow Bridge.

There are meadows and hills for all of our special friends so they can run and play together.

There is plenty of food, water and sunshine, and our friends are warm and comfortable.

All the animals who had been ill and old are restored to health and vigor; those who were hurt or maimed are made whole and strong again, just as we remember them in our dreams of days and times gone by.

The animals are happy and content, except for one small thing; they each miss someone very special to them, who had to be left behind.

They all run and play together, but the day comes when one suddenly stops and looks into the distance. His bright eyes are intent; His eager body quivers. Suddenly he begins to run from the group, flying over the green grass, his legs carrying him faster and faster.

You have been spotted, and when you and your special friend finally meet, you cling together in joyous reunion, never to be parted again. The happy kisses rain upon your face; your hands again caress the beloved head, and you look once more into the trusting eyes of your pet, so long gone from your life but never absent from your heart.

Then you cross Rainbow Bridge together…. Author unknown…

bird-dog – at 23:59

NJKME - oh I’m so sorry to hear about your sweet Katie. I hope that she passed smoothly.

And MAV, I love ‘The Rainbow Bridge’. Thank you so much. Sorry about your pup too.

For me having had various four-legged friends die over the years have been the hardest experiences ever. Somehow even more difficult than my parents’ deaths. I still can’t walk toward my car without looking for her ears and feeling a sharp deep sadness that she’s gone. It’s getting much better/easier but she/they leave such an enormous empty space.

Lisa, I did ask my sister before she left for India to please stay in touch if possible and she said that she’d be leaving her laptop at home. I then asked her to call collect or email me from a computer cafe. I emailed her today and mentioned the dengue, chik, and H5N1. I also asked her to inquire as to how the ‘locals’ protect themselves and what herbs, etc. they use when they can’t/won’t use Western medicine. I also sent her a link to the ‘India’ thread just in case. In the past she has not communicated so I haven’t much hope that she will do so now. Sorry. It would be so interesting AND I *am* a bit concerned for her safety!

What a beautiful day today! I stayed home and moved preps, received my Big Berkey, AND a dozen cans of cheese and another dozen cans of butter. I don’t use butter or marg. now but it may make the canned vegetables taste better if I have to SIP. And/or I could use them both as barter(?).

I’m an ‘Air America’ junky and heard BF very briefly mentioned on the Randi Rhodes today. Unfortunately it didn’t sound as if she and the ‘caller’ took the threat seriously. She was on a roll about the million other problems facing us. IMO great hosts on there esp Randi and Sam Seder. /;-)

10 October 2006

NJKME – at 07:05

Thnx Guys for the sentiments. MAV - Thank you for Rainbow Bridge, It’s something I think that my 4 yr. old will understand and gain some comfort from. He’s a sad little guy.

Bird-Dog - Can you tell me more about your Berkley? It’s for water purification/filtration right? I’ve been hearing the term here and there on the boards. Don’t know if it’s something we might need to invest in. Water is the one thing I’m concerned about. I wish we could put in a hand pump, but I’m fairly certain that our well is just too deep.

MAV - you were mentioning the PneumoVax being different for kids. I wonder if you are referring to the “regular” pneumovax that all kids get at the Peds, brand-name Prevnar. My 4yr. old’s immunization records indicate he’s had it 4 times already. I think the pediatrician told me it protected against 6 kinds of pneumococcal bacteria. But that this “other” one protects against 23 kinds.

Gotta go to work - Everybody have a great day.

11 October 2006

bird-dog – at 11:33

NJKME Hi! Sorry to take so long to get back to you.

Yes, the Big Berkey is for purifying water. There is much discussion of it on the ‘Water’ thread. And there is a way to make a great set-up using just the ceramic filters and two buckets saving much money. I bought mine from here >>> http://tinyurl.com/zjcyd.

Here’s more info; I bought the black filters, not the white,:

 >>> http://tinyurl.com/gsjvy  and  here with the best pics. >>> http://tinyurl.com/l2e4m. Do a google search.

I haven’t set mine up yet but I’m feeling great relief that I have it. I always use Britta filters and so even if we avoid the assault, I figure that I’ll save money eventually and will be healthier too. Plus it’s beautiful!

I hope that your 4 yr. old is feeling better… so sad!

bird-dog – at 12:01

Lisa, well, test came back ‘high’ on two levels. Guess that means ‘positive’. I haven’t talked to anyone yet and I’m feeling somewhat in shock. I’ll adjust as I always do so it’ll be ‘ok’. As long as I don’t have to go to the MGH often and am forced to be exposed to folks esp if there’s a flu of any sort. Gulp. Hey, I can always say ‘no’. Thank goodness the psychiatic aspects aren’t an issue for me (yet??). So scarey!!! At least it explains the MND and incredible neuropathy. So that’s helpful/good.

Anyway, back to prepping and hopefully to Reny’s today for some silk-type thermal underware. I haven’t ordered bulk grains or beans, tapped out money-wise. Maybe in a month or so… :-)

Have you decided on a stove yet?

Fiona and the cats and I are enjoying this grey grey day. Cosy! …but feeling unsettled.

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 18:05

Hi Bird-dog - Time to get the MGH doc to liason with a local. Many at MGH will do that. I’ve even seem them video and teleconference with local docs for treatment assistance. Boston will be way too high risk to you if viral illness rampant. Do you have a good local doc who would be willing to confer with your specialist? The psychiatric issues may not be a part of your symptom constellation, ever. And if they do occur, well, we have effective and amazing treatments now, thank god. And I will offer you whatever I can in that dept. Keep up on the anti-inflammatories - krill oil, tumeric, ginger, astaxanthin… I’m sorry you’re scared. I’m glad you have an answer. I’m sorry you have an answer.

Haven’t decided on stove yet because behind in bills. Still trying to be patient. Difficult.

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 18:10

Bluetide - did you see NJKME at 21:22 post? Re fireplace? Possible resource for you?

bird-dog – at 18:17

Thanks Lisa. :-)

NauticalManat 21:13

bird-dog

Just a note to say your in my thoughts and prayers…

NauticalManat 21:14

bird-dog

You are in my thoughts and prayers…

NJKME – at 21:52

Hi Everyone

Bird-dog, Sounds as if you’re just learning of some bad news, I’ll be praying along with NauticalMan. Also praying for travelling mercies for your sister.

Nancy

bird-dog – at 22:53

Thanks NauticalMan.

I’m ‘ok’, really(!).

I think that we *all* here deal with hard stuff every day - not to mention the major challenges that we may have to face down the road. It’s very comforting knowing that you’all on the Maine thread and those in the larger ‘wiki’ community are diligently ‘dealing’ with, facing squarely, a situation that others would choose to ignore, deny, run from. I love the honesty, humor, respect, courage, brilliance, and determination that are(is?) displayed. An amazing place. Good people. ;-)

bird-dog – at 23:20

NJKME - ahh, thank you too!

Yes, I hope that my dear sister takes good care of herself. She is in good hands and for that, I’m grateful. Nepal must be so beautiful, thrilling; hopefully I’ll hear back from her soon. Today I posted on the ‘India’ thread part of an email that I recieved from her yesterday. She did not seem to be very concerned about the Dengue fever in Delhi. Oh well…

(Really though, what could go wrong/feel wrong while in the presence of H.H.!)

12 October 2006

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 21:32

Did you see news thread or was it Indo thread about the 7 dead of flu/dysentery in isolated New Guinea village? Sometimes I want to close my ears and eyes and not learn of another possibility, not have to wait for further info to reassure that the incident concerned isn’t THE concerning incident…And now, to add injury to insult, I’m going to bed and the relaxing reading for tonight is ‘The Great Influenza”…A sucker for punishment…Hope you all are well.

Bird-dog - has the MGH crew talked with you yet re W-S urinalysis results? Will they insist on you going down to Boston again for this discussion? Are you still feeling unsettled? And (the last of 20 questions! :) ) are you still suffering with that cold? I read your India thread note today. Wish we could prod your sister into state of more observant concern as she is well-positioned for info gathering. Oh well. Take care. Hope Fi and kitties are doing well. Lisa

13 October 2006

bird-dog – at 02:50

Hi Lisa - I called MGH Wednesday and left a message. I’ll call again later this morning and hopefully will connect with my doctor. I guess that I’m still feeling a bit edgy (it’s after 2:30am!) and yes, I do still have some deep congestion. I know, I’d better get some sleep. And yes, if I have a fever later today I’ll call my GP. yada yada yada (G)

How is your boy doing? Hope he’s feeling better. Do the boys ask about your prep activities?

My manual Family Grain mill came today. It’s very light and very simple. I love it! Haven’t tried it out yet though but hopefully tomorrow ie. today. Plus I finally finished storing my canned goods in the crawl-space. What a relief. Next, the totes upstairs. Ugh.

There is *so* much more to do before the house is ready for a dog. I’m getting there though. I desperately need someone to walk *me*! A dog would get me out and about and into the woods for sure.

I took Miss Fiona out for a short car ride to pick up the paper. She loved it, especially looking up and out through the sun roof - such a knucklehead! LOL.

Ok, off to bed.

Have a good day today!

bird-dog – at 10:57

I had an email from my sister today - as you can see, she appears to think that this is all a bunch of hooey and that like most people believe that we’re being manipulated and are over-reacting…:-():

“Hi - fine now - found an internet to use briefly so this will be short. not having Dengue in Nepal I think. Arrived last night. No checkpoints for it that i experienced. (I know you feel the US doesnt get enough of some news but dont forget that reporters NEEEEEED news that is alarming, disturbing, worrying, fear-based, especially with W at the helm!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!”

If only it was true!

Al – at 13:32

NauticalMan, I wonder if you realize the best time to visit China is Nov, Dec, etc. Not as hot then. Guangzhou is the former Canton, an amazing city, parts of it very 19th C western, parts very non-western. Great food, lots of history, incredible shopping. I think the boxer rebellion was there. It’s my very favorite city in China. Unfortunately the H5N1 virus is endemic in the wild bird and poultry population in that particular province but as a fwikian, you know that. Still, a most fascinating, friendly tourist destination, lots of international visitors and trade fairs there, etc. Cheap, last minute airfare (under $1000) can be found through e-savers and airline consolidators, allowing for last minute travel. Just a short (I mean short) walk from most of the better hotels are the infamous “markets” where you can find anything at all as well as live animals in cages, including cats, dogs, poultry, scorpians, etc. Wasn’t it just April that a man or woman there got H5N1 and the only contact w/ poultry may have been walking through the markets?

Preparing for such a trip isn’t difficult at all, it means having some broad spectrum antibiotics available for the trip, maybe a course of doxycycline (instead of larium) for malaria, as well as one or two courses of Oseltamivir or Zanamivir per person. If you need any kind of medical attention there, the chinese hospitals may not be the best place for a westerner to seek care due to the language barrier. Most hotels can arrange for private docs to visit but many do practice Chinese medicine which can be very different and disconcerting for the unadventurous. Most family practice docs here are not equipped to do “travel medicine” for last minute travellers to Asia, especially those going to places (in several of the provinces) where bird flu is endemic in birds. Luckily, there are travel medicine clinics, immunization clinics, even a few here in Maine, although much more variety found near large metropolitan areas—they’ve been a real boon to last minute travelers. fyi

NauticalManat 13:54

Al, interesting information on visiting China, but considering what is probably going on there at this time think I will pass for now! Do a lot of “traveling” via internet, books and so on. That will have to do for now. It is on my life list though! Given my advancing middle age, better get going on that soon!!

Besides, still some prepping to do, some of what I have done remains on my credit card. My list is getting shorter, but still looking at another rack for some wood storage in my garage, bread machine, some additional Aladdin lamp oil, have most OTC meds, but deficient in sick room supplies. Never seems to end. By the way, my recent visit to York Harbor was great. Older relatives living in an absolutely wonderful senior living facility there, if you can afford it.. A perfect Fall day, as all the days are in New England \:o) !!

Al – at 15:03

NM, what I was trying to say in a perhaps too subtle way is that if you are even thinking about making a trip (I “think” about it daily, I just wouldn’t book it considering what is going on there now), dropping by a travel clinic would help you get the rxs you might want, in addition to the ones you may already have. I did that, so now I have an ample supply of meds via internet (efficacy unknown), plus those via travel clinic and filled in the usa. Forgive my sneaky nature…

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 16:45

bird-dog - “if I have a fever later today I’ll call my GP” - with many adults, pneumonia can be active with no fever. A febrile response is the sign of a healthy immune system. Many adults simply don’t respond that optimally. Even doctors need reminding of this, as they always ask “have you had a fever?” and expect the childlike immune response in a 50 year old body. Diagnose with repiratory symptoms and energy, not thermometer. Please tell me how your new grain mill works out! I’ll get one later if pand. holds off a while. So many other things to do first…

Boys are fine. Youngest well healed. Astonishing to me, the pace of his healing, esp with the puncture wound which was a solid inch long and quite deep. No complications, and I was closely monitoring for infection. They really don’t ask about my prepping. They’re so used to it now it may just seem normal. Older one grumbles about having to carry in the very heavies but on flip side seems to feel proud that he is now the one to do such things. I was so glad to hand that part over, especially the huge bulk bags of dogfood. He swings that 50–60lbs effortlessly over his shoulder. Such a great help. Younger one brings all canned and toiletry items to cellar and puts bags in right area, and I go in and stock and organize. We’ve got a system going without ever having consciously designed one. Older boy makes occasional ‘phooey’ references to bird flu. Younger one accepts with 100% child-faith that all will be well because mom’s on top of it. Oh dear! To be that trusting, leaves me breathless to think of it!

You must be tired today, up till wee hours of morn. Sounds like you’ve finished a lot of prep work.

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 16:56

Al - I am impressed by your sneaky nature and applaud you for it! No forgiveness here, though it was NM you asked for that anyway! I’m thinking about the boy’s PE’s next month and maybe wrangling via travel plans with their MD. I had been just planning to stubbornly argue (my usual bull in China shop technique) but now may structure in more finesse. Travel plans…they have opportunity to go on trip to…Malaysia?…with their dad…will need prophylactic antivirals and antibiotics…The approach is forming. Thanks for the direction! Suggestions and guidance welcomed and appreciated. And Bluetide, this approach might be helpful for you too.

Al – at 19:23

I’ve done it three times. Before the AI concern, I was going to the province in question and had to cancel due to SARS. My poor friend went before me by about a week, then got held up and quarantined for 10 days and could not get home due to being spotted sniffling while getting her boarding pass to a smaller city, child in tow, at the airport. They wouldn’t let her board. She booked back into the hotel and holed up another 10 days and told me not to join her since she wasn’t allowed out of her hotel room. She was pretty scared, not because she was sick (she wasn’t) but because of the immediate authoritarian response she encountered. They take infectious diseases, at least among foreigners and airline passengers, very very seriously over there. I was so dissapointed having already gotten all my travel meds together for the trip, I was left with the doxy, the augmenten, etc but no trip. So the first time was an honest cancellation. I was going to be taking one of those e-savers so I had no cancellation fee. Of course SARS got more intense and the rest is history. I know a lot of people there and here who were isolated due to SARS concerns, going back and forth. That’s what sort of kindled my interest in public health issues and medical mysteries. Anyway I do plan to make the trip. I tried again in April of this year since I am anxious to go again, but of course, as luck would have it, somebody died of H5N1 right where I was planning to be and reading about it on the Fwiki and elsewhere, it brought me to my senses. This time I had told the doc I was “planning” the trip, but I guess I was really just parsing my words. I actually do think, with the proper meds tucked away (and staying away from the markets) that it’s not really any more dangerous in the big cities than here. By that point, I had my 1st scripts for osel for me and my child…I feel badly about my latest time but I am “planning” a trip (parsing again) and that’s what I said to travel clinic. By the way, the HEP (B I think) vaccine they recommend you get if you’re traveling to Asia, especially the countryside and rural areas where I expected to be, is not a bad thing to have been vaccinated for. Anyway, if you are even thinking about traveling to parts of Asia, Africa and elsewhere, it is best to get all the vaccines started well in advance (months, not weeks), even before purchasing tickets becuase some of the preps, maybe it is the HEP-I don’t remember- won’t protect you if given right before your trip. So saying “planning” is accurate in a sneaky way, with plenty of wiggle room. (Oops, do I sound like a political operative?) Interestingly, I ordered osel online two years ago, as soon as I heard about it re: seasonal influenza. I suspect the meds I received back then were not counterfeit due to the fairly early timeline since it was a relatively newer drug at that time. I just thought it would be good to have on hand since I work in and out of people’s homes and handle (carry, play with and work with) children. Since then, I’ve ordered online again but since the bird flu got so much attention I could no longer get it thru the first online company. I got it then, maybe late last year from the same place that I think NM did but during a time of publicity, notoriety and crazy predatory pricing. It could be suspect and not good, no way of knowing, really. I also laid in a supply of amant among other things. NM has been shut down by his doc, as most of us have been, when going in and being direct, so I thought I would share my additional experiences. My ex is a medically at risk person so had no problems getting one pack (at my insistance) from his HCP. By the way, it helps to keep the “travel plan” simple. You know, Bali is a very popular tourist destination as well! Bird-dog, hope you’re hanging in there today. I thought of you and smiled when I visited a child and her pet parrot this week. You must be so concerned for your sister. Send good thoughts so good things will happen to her there.

15 October 2006

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 10:39

Bird-dog - any word from your sister? I’m sure you’ve seen this on news and Indo thread. This article gives districts involved. We need her sleuthing. Do you know where in Nepal she is? I hope she’s not in this ‘red’ zone.

Mystery disease’ claims eight lives in Dadeldhura (Nepal) At least eight people have died of an unknown disease in a single VDC in the far-western district of Dadeldhura. Several dozen people in Belapur VDC have been infected with the disease over the last two weeks, reports said. The disease has symptoms like severe headache, fever and cough. Eight deaths have so far been confirmed in the VDC. More than 500 others have been infected with the ‘mystery disease’ in Siddhapur, Sikash and Dhungadh VDCs of the same district. Proper health services are not available in these areas, reports added. No medical team has yet reached the affected areas from the District Health Office. nepalnews.com mk Oct 14 06

bird-dog – at 11:07

Hi Lisa - no, I haven’t heard back from her. I believe that she’s in Kathmandu; I’ll check a map to see if it’s in this ‘red’ zone. Thanks for the info.! I unfortunately sent her the link to porphyria from Wikipedia which states that it (P) is usually genetic. I wish that I had waited until Jan. when she returns to give her the link. That may have thrown her off. There could be many reasons that I haven’t heard back from her though. It would be great to hear how things are ‘on the ground’ re. these illnesses! I’ll certainly pass along any information that I get from her regarding them.

And Al, I have definitely been ‘sending good thoughts so good things will happen to her there’! ;-)

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 11:48

Bird-dog - did you see this? I’ve copied tidbits. Do you think they could draft a single parent? Ex is out of country 50% of time, he couldn’t take them. My parents need care, cannot care for them. I’ve believed for a long time that US would institute pandemic hcw draft. Do they take things like sole parent into consideration? They’d have to, wouldn’t they?

The Health Care Personnel Delivery System (HCPDS) is a standby plan developed for the Selective Service System at the request of Congress. If needed it would be used to draft health care personnel in a crisis.Begin a mass registration of male and female health care workers between the ages of 20 and 45. Provide a fair and equitable draft of doctors, nurses, medical technicians and those with certain other health care skills if, in some future emergency, the military’s existing medical capability proved insufficient and there is a shortage of volunteers.

bird-dog – at 12:03

Lisa, no, I don’t think they could ‘draft’ you or anyone else in your position. Of course I could be wrong considering how crazy the priorities of our government are these days! Maybe could could email Tom Allen and ask him. What a thing to have to worry about!!!

Al – at 12:26

Good idea bird-dog. Lisa, do they draft single parents in the military? I think they do. They souldn’t, should be unacceptable. Contacting your congressman and senators would be an really good idea, also maybe putting it out there to any professional societies you belong to.

16 October 2006

bird-dog – at 10:11

I had a generic email (for family and friends) from my sister today. Thank goodness! She says that she is finally doing well. No mention of the Dengue.

‘Today I will go out and about and since it is very clear may even see those

 snow-capped Himalaya at last!’

It must be beautiful!

NauticalManat 11:08

Al, thanks for your efforts on my behalf. For some odd reason light did not dawn over Marblehead! While I have not read The Doctors latest book yet, or bought it, have most of what he recommended in the first, except for the prescription pain killers/diazepam, and do not think a travel clinic would script for those. When I asked about these meds of the good DR. recently on another thread he did say that the did not mention any of them in his recent info on home care because he wanted to emphazise what people can do without anything but OTC drugs, hydration ect., but that he still recommends those and some new ones in the new book. Think I will order that now. Procrastination has been he** to overcome as it has always been difficult for me to take on too many things/thoughts at the same time. Kind of get frozen in place (FIP)! Come to think of it, maybe FIP is what is preventing so many from prepping for SIP! When I first started to prep it was overwhelming, but as someone said to one of the mods? when they found out they still had not started prepping, just buy that first extra can of something. That’s what I did and it was like the dam had burst!

Now that I am about 95% there am in another lull/procrastination period and am due to bust out! Of course life has a way of intruding on our best laid out plans on occasion, or as John Lennon put it “life is what happens when we are busy making other plans” Apologies to his memory if I don’t have that quote just right.

Regards to Lisa in SM, bird-dog, bluetide. Hope all is well with you and love to all. Bird-dog, hope that some day we can meet you. Would love to meeet the “girls” and Fiona sounds like a fascinating character. Loved your affectionate “knucklehead” designation. Have always been fascinated with parrots, seems to me they counteract the oft used term “birdbrain”!! When I watch the crows in my area there seems to be a lot going on in those small minds. Also the birds have been around and are descended from a branch of the dinosaurs, have existed a lot longer than man and will probably be here when we are gone if we do not destroy their ecosystem.

Al – at 11:42

NM, personally I think having several packs of Relenza and several of Tamiflu, per person, will be worth the huge hassle of obtaining them. Also, just to let you know, generic diaz is orderable online from 3rd world online pharmacies. Stick to 2 mg-raises less red flags. I had to make a car trip with a beloved canine awhile back and my vet recommended and supplied 2 mg since my four legged partner developed a morbid fear of automobiles when younger. The 2 mg helped him make the long journey in the car. So I laid in an additional supply online thereafter. I also ordered extra Clavamox (broad spectrum antibiotic) for the dog and cat as well.

Prepping for child issue has definately raised my PPF. The unavailability of flu vax from pediatricians makes me very concerned. No problems around here getting the vax from big chain stores but they don’t do children! I am over the top incensed that this country can’t handle such basic public health issues. I understand about the problems with distribution and the higher profit margin for vax manufacturers and distributors with the bigger national chains supplied but to effectively leave children out of the loop by bypassing smaller provider offices during the start of a potentially earlier flu season is really unconsionable.

Lisa, bird-dog, NM, bluetide and others-are you more nervous or less nervous following several slow news days and relative quiet? I find myself more concerned, but I wonder if that’s just my subjective anger reaction at having to jump through hoops to figure out a way to get child vaccinated for seasonal influenza.

By the way, crows are brilliant animals, supposed to be the smartest of birds, Fiona excepted. And I saw an eagle last week, what a sight, almost drove off the road.

bird-dog – at 11:47

It *would* be fun for all of us to get together. That’s a great idea!

Fiona is starting to say ‘kitty kitty kitty’ like David Letterman… so cute! If you haven’t seen ‘The Wild Parrots of Telegraph Hill’ or read the book, do so. It’s an amazing story.

I’m embarrassed to say that I am still feeding the outdoor birds; 3 blk. oil feeders, 3 thistle, 1 beef suet, 1 tray for mixed seed, a half gallon on the ground, and two bird baths (1 heated in the winter)- plus I feed the turkeys, deer, and fox. I know that I should back off slowly but I can’t seem to start. I just love to watch them. I’ve prepped a bit on grain but I need to cut the feeding back as they’ll be up a creek if I run out. Plus of course if the birds etc. become infected. Big dilemma!

I bought The Doctor’s new edition/book and it *is* excellent. And I bought Will’s book too, also a good prep addition plus I wanted to support a fellow ‘wikian’. I’ve decided to buy a few copies of the the Doctors’ or Wills’ books plus copy ‘wiki’ handouts and slip them in my neighbors’ mailboxes without identifying myself. I may have to just ‘go’ with the handouts depending on my finances. I’ll see.

I’m feeling a bit ‘freaked out’ right now but I do have a good list of prep chores to keep me focused. I need to make an appt. with someone(?) one of these days to talk about my heath issues. blah.

It’s a beautiful day and I need to get started and off this !#@#$ computer! Bye NM!

bird-dog – at 12:07

Oh, Hi Al!

I also got an extra order of Clavamox for my cats and I’ve managed to buy two boxes of Tamiflu and one kit of Relenza from a rx from my GP. I’m so sorry that you’re having such trouble finding the pneumovax for your child. I’d be furious too!!!

At least there’s hope that our national priorities will change soon (can’t get complacent though…). If only this virus would slow down to give us much needed time. So scary.

BTW, another great great book - ‘Ravens in Winter’!

And I meant to say “Here, kitty kitty kitty” re David Letterman. :-)

Have a great day you guys!

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 18:37

Al - I think I need more help on 3rd world pharmacy ordering. Possible without script? When I worked on a respiratory unit years ago, we used MScontin often to improve the depth and quality of respirations for those patients suffering various acute and chronic resp. diseases. Has the Doc ever rec’d that? I can’t buy a damn thing, including his book, for a little while so I’d appreciate any info you can give.

At BJ’s last week age cut-off for vaccines for kids was 9. Is your youngest old enough to pass visually for this age? They don’t ask for ID of any kind. Lie if you can :).

And I’ve been very tense about the quiet. Yesterday I actually had to give up any goal of productivity and accept stress-induced brain fuzz. Brought on by considering drafts, of hcw and potentially my boys, by Nepal and eery lack of data, by chic and dengue and encephalitis and misdiagnosis. Was up till 2am last night, lost in reading of Great Influenza. I am captured by the writing skills and historical knowledge of Barry. Reading did alleviate some stress, as he is great teacher and I do best with knowledge. Very unusual for me to pack anxiety this way, to question myself once decision carefully made, ie, “am I nuts? Look at all the money I’ve spent! What if I’m obsessing and not accurately distinguishing reality from obsession?”. Today, back to baseline. Not worrying about my sanity. Still feeling limbolike tension of anticipation.

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 18:49

Bird-dog and Al - Thanks for feedback yesterday when I was feeling impact of potential hcw draft.. Website re ‘how to avoid getting drafted’ says best technique is to not register (too late, nsg license is registered by state) and not to show up when called in for physical. Beyond that, advice is to flunk physical, which I’d do anyway if they do heart monitoring. So, I’ll talk to my NP and make sure my health chart can create speedy exemption. That is my decided upon approach.

I’ve found 2 relatively uninformative articles re Nepal. Going to see if they’re on news thread and if not will post them there. Then off to read Barry, and early bedtime tonight.

Hi NauticalMan!

Al – at 19:17

I just refuse to bring myself to read the book and while I always do better with knowledge, I found that if I just kept prepping, I didn’t have to deal with the anxiety, just the concern. But I’ve been prepping for this for a long while and while I get sad and angry, my nerves still seem steady. Reading that book would send me right over the edge and I can’t risk that. I think I’ve discovered the fix, right here on this thread, curtesy of Fiona…what my insane little household of one grownup, one child, one cat and one puppy needs is a beautiful parrot intoning “kitty kitty kitty”. That would make our bliss here complete!

I’ve never heard of BJs and know that we don’t have a BJs, am not sure if there’s one anywhere within reasonable driving distance, meaning not in southern maine and not in the county. Anywhere else, we could get there. She could pass for 9 if they don’t ask. My child is deathly afraid of shots so I thought flumist might be the better way to go with her. Flumist won’t be in the few pharmacies that carry it in state until early November. I might be able to get her a private flu shot sooner, backchannel again, but I would have to bribe her with a trip to her favorite store---exploitationMart! Even so, as desperately as she wants to go back there (WM), even that wasn’t enough to motivate her and she didn’t think, if push came to shove, that she could manage it. Poor thing. I don’t think it’s worth having 4 adults holding her down to get this accomplished and we’ve been there before-it’s just too traumatizing for her. I thought we’d wait for the flumist and another day maybe try the bribery route with WM if she agreed to take the pneumovax from the pediatrician. In other words save the trauma from the shot for the pneuvax and give her one less shot to deal with with the flumist.

and yes, without scripts. I’ll be routing around for the info in the next few weeks and will pass it on to you via back channel. I need to make one last order before I’m done and can’t swing it now financially. Actually we ought to safely set up a back channel for all of us mainers (and mainers at heart)…maybe through yahoo groups or yahoo or hotmail email addresses?

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 19:51

back channel sounds great to me. Just tell me what to do and I’ll do it! Bjs= Portsmouth, NH. No mist there, I asked.

bird-dog – at 20:15

FYI — Maine preppers…I need to drop out for awhile. You guys take care, really. “Keep on preppin”! Thanks. :)

17 October 2006

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 18:02

bird-dog - hope all is well. Take care. Hope to hear from you as soon as you’re able. Lisa

Al – at 19:32

ditto, bird-dog. Hope everything is OK and if not let us know what we can do to help.

NJKME – at 19:53

Hi All,

Not sure if you guys already know about this…

To find a flushot clinic you can get to Maxim’s site findaflushot.com and plug in your zip.

I feel I’m getting more concerned by the day. It’s not just the regular news reports from overseas but the anecdotal posts. ←not sure if that’s spelled correctly and I don’t see a spell checker here. LOL

Did anyone see the post about someone’s scientist husband that came out of some meeting with the vax specialist from Mayo. Yikes!!

Al – at 20:11

NJKME, yes I saw it and it’s concerning but we already know things are concerning…did you read the thread about cutting bait? That got me concerned even more. I’m so not prepped, so much more to do. How is your stockpile coming?

NJKME – at 20:37

Hello there Al,

Yes Dr. Woodson really “came out” didn’t he? I don’t think it’s really to plug a book do you?

In regards to prepping I ***might*** be OK with a 1918 type event but if this is as bad as I’m hearing a lot of people allude to, who are smarter and more learned than myself BTW, then I am probably screwed. I would be Ok for the short term but not for a long long term event. How do folks put away food for 2 years? and where do they get the money to do that? and of course I have 2 small children so that’s whom I’m really concerned for.

I have talked to friends about avian flu and a pandemic, I’m torn now as to whether I should start getting really pushy about it. I worry about their kids as well.

Nancy

18 October 2006

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 19:42

I CAN”T FIND THE CUTTING BAIT THREAD!!!! Sorry for the yelling, but it’s driving me crazy! Why can’t I find the d*** thing! Help? Thanks! And what meeting? Who’s husband? I think I’ll have to retry tomorrow, when workday isn’t so long and brain less fried! Hope all are well.

And bird-dog - if you are checking in, remember I have 2 strong boys who can do a lot of heavy work for you if needed. It’d be good for them! They could probably do in a day what would take you or I a week. We could supervise, feet up, sipping iced tea…

NJKME – at 21:29

Lisa,

Especially for you….

Here’s the bait thread.

http://tinyurl.com/yfczb7

I’ll go find the thread that talks about the scientist husband in meeting

be right back

NJKME – at 21:37

Ok Here’s the other link

http://tinyurl.com/yemp2w

Scroll down to anonymouse for this post at 00:46 on October 16

NauticalManat 23:04

Hi all, just checking in. Hope we are not all going over the edge! Reading the Doc’s latest thread and having him confirm what I already thought raised my PPF. We have been in Phase 4 since last year, and in my estimation at LEAST since May 2006 when the cluster in Karo, Indonesia hit the fan. Got my list of things I have procrastinated on right in front of me and in the next two days will bite the bullet and run up the credit card.

After reading through his recommendations and comments thought it would be a good time to make one more attempt at persuading the folks in my life. Referenced this thread, The good Doctors comments, wrote up my view and fluwiki’s info as concise as I could without getting too wordy, and sent it off to the usual suspects, maybe 35 or so. Response, zero so far. DW keeps telling me to give up but guess I am stubborn. Did end it by saying that folks are probably sick of my mentioning this over and over and promised this was the last time. Do have two friends who are prepping because of me so not a total loss. bird-dog thinking of you and your gang, best to Lisa, Al, bluetide (haven’t seen your posts lately), and NJKME. MAV in Colorado, have you made your trip to ME yet?

Yeah, Doc Woodson has a lot of courage to have put himself out there so early and keeps at it. Good role model for the rest of us in the hive. Grattan for President! At the very least he should get the Golden Hive award. Along with our mods and a few of TPTB in high places who have spoken out even if they have been stepped on because of it! IMHO of course…

MAV in Colorado – at 23:51

NM, Be out there the 25th for a few days. I guess I missed the peak colors. Oh well, they were nice here. Hope you all got to enjoy them out there. Great info going on here lately. I’m a bit concerned about the possibility of unsettled (less prepped) if I undertake a move in the next couple months. I’ve already let a few items start to “run down” and I don’t like it at all! Some of this stuff is just soo heavy. The thought of paying the movers to move 12 months worth of dog food etc. kills me.

On a completely different note. Some of you may know that I am a strong advocate for being preppared for all threats not just BF. Part of my thinking about a possible move includes evaluating other potential “strategic” targets as well as natural threats. Just so I know what I need to be aware of if I were to move to Bangor. I have heard that there was a submarine base and I know the airport would be a potential target. I sure would appreciate any input on this that you might know about these other considerations.

 Thanks, Stay well all!

19 October 2006

bird-dog – at 11:10

Hi guys, wow, thanks NJKME for the links to The Doctor’s and the ‘scientist’s husband’ posts and thanks(!) Lisa for your great offer. I did get MUCH done yesterday by taking that short break LOL; it’s amazing how much time I spend clicking back and forth on here, especially when I should be sleeping.

Ok, it’s 11am and I’d still like to get caught up on so many threads but…will get back later. Thanks my friends! And I *am* doing well! :-)

Oh, and I haven’t heard from my sister since my last post about her. She’s probably having a wonderful time. Hope so!

MAV, sorry I haven’t any inside info on the base. I wasn’t even aware of it. I hope your trip on the 25th is a good one!

Al – at 11:51

Hello all, MAV, I agree with your “all hazards” approach, makes common sense just to have a general understanding of common potential risks. On the base issue I’m curious as well. I know there’s Loring Airforce base which I understood to be no longer active. Perhaps NJKME can confirm. Someone also told me that there are long airstrips up in Limeststone that are not used anymore. Maybe that’s Loring, again I don’t know. Brunwick area has Bath Iron Works. My gut tells me it’s not much of a target. Can anyone confirm this? There’s something in the Cutler area as well, I’m snot sure what. Bangor International Airport a target? Really hard to see how. The airport is really “little” with the emphasis on “LITTLE”. It is often used by other commercial aviation to deplane drunken unruly passengers on flights originating in the UK and Europe destined for other major airports. I know those flights using corporate aircraft to fly terror suspects involved in “rendition” flights have refueled at BIA in the past-saw some news article at the time that news was reported last year. That’s the some total of my knowledge concerning any potential risks up here.

anonymous – at 13:56

Al- “Bangor International Airport a target?” Not sure but I had found that it was the 2nd longest runway in the US (converted USAF base?) Thanks for the input. I will keep investigating. This would be a good “side project”. I think it’s REALLY important with all that is going on in this world and the more enemies our foriegn policy creates for us every day.

Al – at 15:04

Anon, I had heard that Limestone had the 2nd longest runway in the US but as I said, I do not know. Please let us know what you find out, much thanks.

NauticalManat 15:55

Best of my knowledge MAV, there is not much in Maine for bad folks to be concerned about. Think that Loring/Limestone is the same, was a B52 base, now closed. Brunswick Naval Air Station is an anti-sub base, but is due to be closed next couple of years, they are trying to come up with alternative usages. This may be where the submarine base thing came from. No subs up there to my knowledge of things. The former Pease AFB near Portsmouth, NH closed years ago, Fort Devens in MA is closed. In fact MAV, New England has lost most of its old military bases as they have all gone south. There are few military related things left. The old Army Reseach Lab in Natick, MA is still there and maybe still an Air Guard unit down Cape Cod, but think I read that is being phased out as they move the planes elsewhere. Think that if we need air cover they will have to come from Wash., DC! As I mentioned before, the only Nuclear plant in Wiscassit, ME is closed. That pretty much leaves lobsters, blueberries, potatos, Moose and tourists! Not much of a threat to anyone, although natives might differ on the tourists!

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 16:58

NJKME - Oh thank you so much! That was driving me nuts! Hate to miss out on something important, esp. when the doc is concerned because I’m harboring a secret love for him! Well, I do feel quite kindly towards him for his support of pandemic education and the wiki. Anyway, thanks again. I’m looking forward to reading both threads. Lisa

Al – at 17:05

OK, heard back from my friend that he heard that the 2nd longest runway in the country is indeed here in Maine and he suggested I check maine pbs since he heard it on a recent tv show on the economic life and history of different Maine communities. I’ll go check that out now. NMan, I do happen to agree with you, nothing much of anything is up here. Might be different if the LNG (liquid natural gas) proponents become sucessful in locating a port terminal up the coast near Canada. No one else wanted it, they tried to put it on Sears Island smack dab in the middle of Penobscot Bay but thankfully it didn’t happen since the Bay is really narrow and the risk is too great. The tribes are pushing for it up north. They so need econnomic opportunity up there (I wish they’d get their casinos up there). IMHO the LNG terminals would be an insane risk. Hopefully it won’t happen.

NMan, Moose really are a threat up here! Vehicle encounters with them (pretty common) are usually fatal.

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 17:09

Bird-dog - hope you break was restful and I’m very glad you are OK!

Al, NauticalMan, MAV - Hello! Hope you are all well. MAV - Portsmouth naval shipyard is still up and running, still active with government contracts. If targeted successfully, the chaos would likely be restricted to southern Maine and NH, and Northeastern Massachusetts. Seabrook nuclear power plant in same general area.

Al – at 17:21

Hi Lisa, yes I agree, chaos would not reach up here, but eventually nuclear fallout would reach everywhere in the world. The Bangor area is hours from down there.

OK, here’s what I found: http://www.mpbn.net/hometown/limestone.html “In 1994, Limestone faced the unthinkable—the closing of Loring Air Force Base. With the recent Congressional vote in 2005 to close the Brunswick Naval Air Station, the reaction by the town of Limestone can serve as a lesson plan on how to manage such a potentially crushing economic blow.

[SNIP]

With the construction of Loring Air Force Base in the 1950’s, the town’s economic focus shifted and its population nearly quadrupled from 2,500 to 9,990. With its closure, the population has dwindled down to roughly the same size it was before the base was built. When the base closed, the town needed to address two critical factors to ensure its survival: first, the need to leverage the infrastructure left behind by the Air Force – most notably the buildings, hangars and the 2-mile-long airstrip on which B-52 bombers and C-130 transport planes once landed; and second, that investing in high-quality education for its young people would better prepare them for the economy of the future, whatever that turned out to be. The town proved to be remarkably prescient on both counts.

Soon after the base closed, the Loring Development Authority was founded. Its mission was to market the former base to businesses across America and promote the availability of Limestone’s low-cost facilities, highly educated work force, scenic beauty and idyllic small-town qualities as incentives for businesses to relocate or expand into Limestone. This strategy has so far been successful. Since 1995, over 20 businesses employing over 1,000 people have moved into the former air base.”

NJKME – at 20:13

Hi Guys,

MAV, the colors are still fairly good in Bangor, I think you’ll be pleasantly surprised. Well at least I think you will, we are supposed to get ~2 in. of rain tomorrow which will knock some down.

I would think the risk assessment for central Maine would be fairly low, actually anywhere in Maine for that matter. NauticalMan is right, the last set of DoD downsizing saw a lot of Maine militiary sites going. I think Senator’s Snowe and Collins went to bat for us, particularly since Collins is the Chair of the Senate Armed Services Commission (or something like that) I have to admit I don’t follow politics very much. I do know that Bangor has an air refueling wing, the “Maineiacs” they’re called. Bangor does have a really long runway, I think it could even handle a Concorde when they were flying. It’s certainly got a reputation for diversion of flights. Does anyone remember Stephen King’s “The Langoliers”.

It just occurred to me that there was another interesting poster “MadameSpinner” who’s nephew is in Indonesia. She said he has sent his wife and daughters home, that things were getting bad. Did anybody see that post?? She figures that when he gets out that means the balloons gone up. I keep looking for her posts to see if he’s left yet.

Lisa, I have a lot of respect for the doctors that are stepping forward. Doctors Jerimenko (sp??) and Woodson, also Doctor Tom “TomDVM”. He’s outed himself on here and on Reveres’ blogsite.

MAV in Colorado – at 22:00

anonymous – at 13:56 ←ooops that was me on the “unregistered” laptop

Thanks for all the info. everyone. I know Maine to be one of the very best places in the lower 48 to live or I wouldn’t be thinking of relocating! Good to know these things the way this world is changing. Even though some of the bases may be closed down, I still consider them “potential” areas of interest to the bad guys. A big runway for example is important for many reasons and if TSHTF, could be a strategic target. (yes, I am paranoid! but that doesn’t mean it couldn’t happen!) :)

20 October 2006

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 19:03

I don’t know about paranoid MAV. Never hurts to be careful though.

NJKME - I’d love to see a major news magazine, in print or on TV, pick a group of these docs and make them sound like the brightest of the bright, leaders of their profession, heroes…then other docs won’t feel like they’re sticking their necks way out when they’re considering stockpile prescription for a patient. If supportive prep behavior were normalized for these folks they might do it. They’d worry less about suit. And I read both threads you provided links too. The Docs one was the one I felt was too important to miss, and I loved it! Scary though, to consider 8% cfr. Thank you for that help!

MAV in Colorado – at 19:47

NJKME – at 20:13 thanks for the update on the colors. I’ve got a day and a half of meetings in Bangor and 2 days to check out the area real estate. I keep wondering/thinking that now is a maybe not so great time to be moving. Between the potential for BF and winter coming on I’m a bit nervous. I do think Maine is a good choice for me though. I just have to plan things so that I am not caught with my pants down if things should anything happen during the week or so that the belongings are who-knows-where on a moving truck.

21 October 2006

NJKME – at 21:33

Hi MAV - I don’t know what to tell ya’ man. The leaves they’re ALL gone. Quite a wind and rainstorm we had. Someone else on here is moving sometime soon as well. Commonground maybe. TomDVM seemed to be reassuring her that she’d be allright if she moved before year end. Not sure what time frame you are looking at?

Hi Lisa, your idea about a news magazine, yes that would be verry interesting. It seems as if as time goes on more and more of them are coming out. Wonder who will be next?

Annon for this post – at 23:55

Awwww! No colors?! Just kidding. We had a great fall color here and I managed to get out in it quite a bit. Had some snow already so it seems we are into winter now. I think BroncoBill moved from Calif.? somewhere east Virginia? maybe. I would say the time frame would be around Dec 1-Jan 31st ish.

22 October 2006

Al – at 18:52

MAV, I just heard back from another friend who is not military but interested in military things who told me Bangor airport also boasts a small base which is a re-fueling spot for military aircraft and bombers. Take with a grain of salt because he is a civilian as I said. I still think this place is as safe as it gets. Additionally, the people up here are just delightful!

MAV in Colorado – at 19:05

Thanks Al. that is the same info I have come up with (both topics!) I just have always planned for the worst and hoped for the best. Worst case involves taking out that airport. A stategic target in worst case. I think I will eventually be further out of town. From the maps and Google Earth, north, NE looks interesting. I will have a couple days to tour around next week.

Al – at 19:46

I don’t know the Bangor area and surroundings that well but I get up there regularly perhaps twice a month and I can tell you, for the purposes of a commute, that traffic north of the Bangor exits on 95 drops to nearly nothing even during peak commute times. I rarely see more than a couple of vehicles on N 95 at any given time and often the road seems empty. People often drive way over the speed limit frequently. If you have the time, check out the towns of Lincoln and Millinocket, about 40 and 55 minutes respectively, north of Bangor on 95. Quite a spectacular area, lakes everywhere and Mt Katahdyn is an awesome sight looming majestically nearby. There are also lots of moose up there.

Al – at 19:50

I don’t know the Bangor area and surroundings that well but I get pretty far north of there about twice a month and I can report that, for the purposes of a commute, the traffic north of the Bangor exits on 95 drops to nearly nothing even during peak commute times. I rarely see more than a couple of vehicles on N 95 at any given time and often the road seems empty. People often drive way over the speed limit frequently. It feels like the frontier. If you have the time, check out the towns of Lincoln and Millinocket, about 40 and 55 minutes respectively, north of Bangor on 95. Quite a spectacular area, lakes everywhere and Mt Katahdyn is an awesome sight looming majestically nearby, great hunting, fishing and ice-fishing (although I don’t partake of any of it). There are also lots of moose up there.

Al – at 19:52

sorry, dropped post, then added a bit, but it went through twice.

MAV in Colorado – at 19:53

Sweet!!! I will do that. I’m just thinking a reasonable commute for me would be around 30 minutes from Bangor downtown. So that would likely be my radius. I figure hope to find some wooded acreage with a nice home within that area. Some waterfront is at the top of the want list for the realator. we’ll see…… if I find a place with a underground shelter, I will know I found a new home. haha!

Al – at 20:14

Also, (just saw your post on another thread) HCWs are in high demand in the Lincoln/Millinicket area, a doc friend just turned down a super high guarantee on a position up there (wife and child didn’t want to make the move) so he stayed in Bangor. Wish I was a recruiter!

I moved here and waterfront was at the top of my list too. Oh, by the way, if you’re not born in Maine, as the saying goes, you are “from away”--but they’re nice about it!

This state weathered the great ice storm of 98 so gracefully. I hope the potential for massive chaos is less in this part of New England, it’s an innocent place, I believe.

MAV in Colorado – at 20:26

I’ve already been told to say ayah for yes. Cracks me up. Have to check my map for the Lincoln area you mentioned. I like nice.

24 October 2006

MAV in Colorado – at 11:09

40 to Lincoln, 55 miles to Millinicket as the crow flies from Bangor. Might be out of my Bangor commute range. Might be worth a call to the hospital up there though. Thanks for the tip.

26 October 2006

bird-dog – at 09:44

MAV - Great luck with your search here! Today is beautiful and should give you a spectacular view of the countryside, tomorrow or Saturday, not so much… I hope you find that perfect bunker! Have fun.

Al – at 09:56

Either Lincoln or Millinocket would be the perfect place to ride out any disaster. Good luck and have fun in your search. Hello bird-dog, Saturday weather supposed to be less than fine?

bird-dog – at 11:08

Hi Al - I guess that the wild weather is forcasted for Saturday, not tomorrow. Hope you’re doing well!

This ‘stage 4/5′ rumor from NM and the possible decision to WAIT! until after the elections is disturbing/amazing. I hope that MAV is successful this weekend. Looks like things may change quickly --- gad, I hope not!

{Boy, I guess R.L. finally and indisputebly showed his true colors --- totally F.U.B.A.R.! …a cruel being, one of many (grrrr).}

I guess a part of me is glad that TPTB may hold off until after the election. A prior ramping up could cause a false rally-ing, and that would be disasterous imo. Definitely mixed feelings here!

Al – at 12:04

RL is a crackpot. By the way, what does fubar mean? I’ve seen it on a tee shirt recently.

bird-dog – at 12:26

A military acronym that means “f’ed up beyond all recognition”.

Also the title of the light/humorous hc book by Sam Seder and Stephen Sherrill: ‘F*U*B*A*R America’s Right-Wing Nightmare’.

Closed and Continued - Bronco Bill – at 12:32

Long thread closed and continued at Maine Preppers IV

Closed and Continued - Bronco Bill – at 12:36
NauticalManat 12:41

Hi all, upside is my new log rack from Beans came, now to assemble, add that extra wood to garage. Also more lamp oil from Lehmans, they are very good with service. Have not been here much lately, lot of family stuff going on, my Mom had a rough week in the nursing home, but seems to be pulling out of it ok.

Oh, also got my Panasonic bread machine, notice though that all the recipes seem to use butter and powdered milk and we are slightly and extremely lactose intolerant, maybe some type of good margarine or oil instead for the fat and liquid soymilk could be used instead, will experiment.. Do they make powdered lactose milk? Another thing to research! Still waiting for more cans of butane for my little stove and The Doctors newest book… Good luck MAV, enjoy your visit. Best to Lisa, bird-dog, Al, Fiona and all the little critters!

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Page last modified on October 26, 2006, at 12:41 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / 1918 and Vitamin D

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: 1918 and Vitamin D

25 October 2006

GPinWIat 15:10

Long time lurker here with a question… I’ve searched and haven’t been able to find the answer, sorry if I’ve overlooked something obvious (to everyone else)

Anyway… after reading the vitamin D threads, it got me wondering how ‘sun-shiney’ cities such as Miami and Houston, etc faired in 1918? I haven’t been able to find anything comparing rates of infection among cities that I could compare by latitude. Anyone have any thoughts or ideas? Thanks!

Grace RN – at 15:27

Doesn’t seem to have helped much-if people were outdoors enough to absorb that level of vitamin D

“That Great Pandemic also touched Florida.

In 1918, Florida’s statewide population was around five percent of what it is today-under one million people.

Despite this scant population, between mid-October and late November 1918, the state reported thousands of cases of the Spanish flu, as well as hundreds of deaths from it.

The exact numbers of Floridians affected by the flu will never be known, because regular reports to the U.S. Public Health Service were never made.”

link:http://www.pandemicflu.gov/general/greatpandemic.html#fl

Floridian Doc – at 17:56

Every entry on the site Grace RN – at 15:27 provided starts with the same sentence, just insert a different state’s name. JMHO but I think Mr. Leavitt was trying to make a point. I read that FL and some of the other “sunshiney” states faired much better, I think because of the Vit D and weather conditions, as well as quarantine precautions. Can’t provide a link because it was awhile back. I’ll try and find more research on this from my archives and will share it when I do.

INFOMASS – at 21:00

In a history of Schenectady, NY and the 1918 flu, they give death rates by city. The worst hit cities are those that got the flu in August and Sept. while the later ones were hit much less - it appears the virus mutated. (An earlier wave in the spring also had low mortality.) So, the north/south aspect appears not to dominate in causing mortality. Minneapolis (1.8 per 1000) had a lower rate than Los Angeles (3.3) and Philadelphia (7.4) was higher than Boston (5.7). This does not mean that Vitamin D was unimportant, but it does suggest that the flu was so easily spread and so virulent that people were infected even in August when there should have been plenty of sun, especially for a farm-centered nation. The web site is at www.schenectadyhistory.org/health/morris/3.html

Klatu – at 21:22

I think there is a strong argument to be made in favour of Vitamin D supplementation for those who do not receive enough through diet or receive the appropriate environmental exposure via the sun.

“Since MS seems to be more common in people who live farther from the equator, another theory proposes that decreased sunlight exposure[20] and possibly decreased vitamin D production may help cause MS. This theory is bolstered by recent research into the biochemistry of vitamin D, which has shown that it is an important immune system regulator

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multiple_sclerosis

There is much, much, more if you choose to Google for the information.

GPinWIat 21:33

INFOMASS at 21:00 - Thanks for the link! What strikes me is that other than Los Angeles (and maybe St. Louis), all the cities listed are what I would consider northern cities. It makes me wonder if there is a lack of data for southern cities, or if they fared better….

Klatu – at 21:41

GPinWI – at 21:33 wrote:

INFOMASS at 21:00 - Thanks for the link! What strikes me is that other than Los Angeles (and maybe St. Louis)


I think St. Louis had very low rates of infection because of the the amazing foresight of their mayor, applying social distancing in the community.

Average Concerned Mom – at 23:16

GPinWI at 21:33

I’d expect that in 1918–1920 southern cities (and states)were less densely populated than in the north; if so, that might have had an effect on rates of infection, though it shouldn’t have affected fatality rate of the disease.

26 October 2006

Pseudorandom – at 09:53

Klatu at 21:22 - “I think there is a strong argument to be made in favour of Vitamin D supplementation for those who do not receive enough through diet or receive the appropriate environmental exposure via the sun.”

I completely agree with you. I think that many people do not realize, however, exactly how many of us do not receive enough through diet or sun exposure. In our studies in coastal South Carolina (yes, the sunny South), we see vitamin D deficiency rates of roughly 20–40% among white mothers, 40–60% among Hispanic mothers, and up to 90% among African-American mothers. Many of these people are profoundly deficient with serum 25(OH)D levels less than 12 ng/mL. Their bodies laugh at the RDI of 400 IU/day; they typically require 2000 IU/day or more to pull them up to marginally optimal levels. This is extremely important information for exclusively breastfeeding mothers, because their infants’ only source of vitamin D will be breastmilk. Vitamin D deficient moms who exclusively breastfeed will produce vitamin D deficient children, placing them at increased risk of bone diseases such as rickets and osteomalacia and possibly (still under study) a host of chronic autoimmune and inflammatory conditions.

In case anyone is interested, another couple of interesting references concerning the role of vitamin D in multiple sclerosis are: Hayes CE. Vitamin D: a natural inhibitor of multiple sclerosis. Proceedings of the Nutrition Society (2000) 59: 531–535. Munger KL et al. Vitamin D intake and incidence of multiple sclerosis. Neurology 2004;62:60–65.

As we learn more about the role of vitamin D in immunomodulatory processes, more studies are being done to examine its relationship with autoimmune diseases and chronic inflammatory conditions. It has been shown that vitamin D is also preventive of Type I diabetes (so-called “juvenile onset”) (1), associated with lowered rates of rheumatoid arthritis (2), and preventive of prostate cancer as well as being pro-differentiative and anti-metastatic (3), and is critical in the human body’s native antimicrobial response (4). Other papers that I don’t have immediately at hand indicate that adequate vitamin D intake lowers C-reactive protein (CRP), an important marker of inflammation.

What I find most interesting is the hypothesis among current researchers that adequate vitamin D intake in infancy has a priming effect on the immune system. This is supported by the studies of Type I diabetes, but a true assessment of the hypothesis will take large longitudinal studies (read: $$$). We can only hope that the NIH budget will be restored to permit studies of this sort.

(1) Hypponen E et al. Intake of vitamin D and risk of Type 1 diabetes: a birth-cohort study. The Lancet 358:1500–1503. (2) Merlino LA. Vitamin D intake is inversely associated with rheumatoid arthritis. Arthritis & Rheumatism 50(1):72–77. (3) Schwartz GG. Vitamin D and the epidemiology of prostate cancer. Seminars in Dialysis 18(4):276–289. Anything by this author is worth reading if you are interested in prostate cancer. (4) Liu PT et al. Toll-like receptor triggering of a vitamin D-mediated human antimicrobial response. ScienceExpress 23 Feb 2006.

But I guess that what matters most here is whether there is an anti-influenza effect. I’m sure that the Cannell paper on epidemic flu and vitamin D has been discussed before, and I believe that adequate vitamin D intake does afford some protection against “common” viruses by creating an environment in which our immune systems can respond healthily. I would postulate that because vitamin D is critical to an appropriate immune response, the effect in a pandemic may not be seen in attack rates, but in death rates. If the pandemic strain is new to us all, vitamin D will not provide a magical aura of protection. However, my SWAG (since this hasn’t really been studied yet) is that it may set the internal environment for a proper immune response once the body recognizes that it is under attack - hopefully, preventing cytokines from storming out of control.

Klatu, is your user name a reference to the movie Evil Dead? That is the best “worst movie” I’ve ever seen. Hilarious.

INFOMASS – at 10:08

Klatu: I agree with you and Pseudorandom about the potential benefits of Vitamin D, and went so far as to (mis?)post on the news thread a few days back about a nutrition letter that summarized much of the recent research also well summarized by Psudorandom at 09:53. My only points were that the 1918 flu data did not support a sharp north/south difference in mortality and that other variables such as viral evolution and public health measures help to explain what we actually observed. Having said that, there are many good reasons to supplement Vitamin D adn few not to. It might not help a whole lot with panflu, but it likely will do some good and could help in many other ways.

crfullmoon – at 10:13

(oops, ;-) I’d always been thinking, “Klaatu barada nikto”!)

Pseudorandom – at 11:28

crfullmoon - at 10:13 You’re right, not an oops. “Klaatu barada nikto” is from the movie series “Evil Dead.” I like the part where the guy’s zombie arm goes after him.

On second thought, I would like to quote briefly from the Cannell review paper - “Recently, vitamin D has been found to modulate macrophages’ response, preventing them from releasing too many inflammatory cytokines and chemokines [refs]. Vitamin D deficiency also impairs the ability of macrophages to mature, to produce macrophage-specific surface antigens, to produce the lysosomal enzyme acid phosphatase, and to secrete H2O2, a function integral to their antimicrobial function [refs].”

If the research is borne out in further studies, we may well have something that moderates cytokine storms.

Ironically, if the pandemic is severe when it comes, we will probably not even be able to do any studies about the possible anti-flu effects of vitamin D. If the medical system is overwhelmed, there will be minimal recordkeeping and certainly no emergency IRB sessions or extra time for docs to write protocols. We’ll be thrown back to relatively poor-quality retrospective survival studies, which will be rife with uncontrolled confounding, once we again have the research capacity to carry them out. :(

crfullmoon – at 11:54

I’m old -the phrase’s originally from “The Day the Earth Stood Still” (1951)

Klatu – at 12:01

Pseudorandom – at 11:28 wrote:

crfullmoon - at 10:13 You’re right, not an oops. “Klaatu barada nikto” is from the movie series “Evil Dead.” I like the part where the guy’s zombie arm goes after him.


 The phrase “Klaatu barada nikto” originates from the 1951 Cold-War-era science fiction film The Day The Earth Stood Still. The phrase “Gort! Klaatu barada nikto!” was used to stop Gort, the robot (virus) in the film, from destroying the world.”

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Klaatu_barada_nikto

Pseudorandom – at 12:18

Well, whaddyaknow. I learn something every day.

If you want to watch a funny and really bad horror flick in celebration of Halloween, you’ll be amused by Evil Dead ripping off older sci fi. Now I’m wondering what other throwbacks were in there that I missed …

preppiechick – at 12:20

Klatu:

Just a slight clarification to the St. Louis post. Although the mayor did order the mandatory shutdowns, if it had not been for the foresight and insistence of the city health doctor, Max Starkloff, the mayor would not have done anything different than any other city. I am glad so many people are here from the medical field…it will take someone like starkloff(an authoritative, strong voice), again, to convince politicians that it is imperative to shut down cites, and not play politics. (ps I’m from st. louis, and I don’t see another starkloff on the scene yet, and waay too many politics in this area)

Klatu – at 12:37

Thank you - I stand corrected. Credit where credit is due. (I’m from out-of-town)

‘’‘That “social distancing” of 1918 was the brainchild of the city’s health commissioner, Dr. Max C. Starkloff. Working with Mayor Henry Kiel, Starkloff closed schools, barred public gatherings and shut or limited businesses.

As a result, the city’s flu death rate for each 1,000 residents was 3.0 - the lowest big-city figure. Philadelphia’s rate was 7.3, and that was only third-worst among big cities. San Francisco’s rate ran to 7.6. In Pittsburgh, the figure hit 8.0.’‘’

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/archive/index.php?t-7926.html

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.1918AndVitaminD
Page last modified on October 26, 2006, at 12:37 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Cooperative Thinking Simple Masks

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Cooperative Thinking Simple Masks

09 May 2006

lugon – at 04:32

So, we have:

This thread is to discuss simple masks: masks that might be “built” by people, maybe by local industries, maybe by international sponsors etc, and which might be useful in reducing transmission.

Yes, we know we don’t want to stop people from washing their hands, keeping social distance and coughing in their elbow. A bad mask might stop people from taking the other precautions, and nobody wants that to happen.

So maybe “simple masks” should work better as part of a “simple prevention kit”, together with educational material that can be translated into as many languages as needed, etc. Educational material would also have a “trainer’s booklet”.

Simple masks, if possible, might have a instructable page showing how to make them.

This has immediate use and value at stage 3 where there’s only bird flu and no pandemic flu (yet). Masks can be made, deployed and tested. (Or maybe not.)

This thread is for us to discuss how to make this happen, or (of course) to find (and overcome?) shortcomings in this idea. We may also be able to help refine the design, test it further, etc.

The space is open!

Mark UK – at 04:51

Even the best masks have been shown in research to be only partially effective, and probably for only short-periods of time also (and there is the danger of infecting yourself when you remove it).

Self-made masks would likely have only psycholgical value, although there is some discussion of wearing a surgical-type mask OVER a class-3 mask to prevent surface contamination.

13 May 2006

lugon – at 03:25

I’m starting to look at pandemics as a natural event, with natural reactions. We want to prepare so we may act, and guide if we can, with the best possible reactions. Specifically, in a pandemic, most people will move around, and many will want to use some kind of mask, anything that makes them feel they’re doing the best they can to protect themselves and their loved ones and their communities.

If there are not enough high-tech masks (which will be the rule all over the World), then what is the best practical thing?

I think it boils down to (self)education: the mask not as a prevent-all but as one more element in the slow-down strategy, together with hand-hygiene, social distance, asynchronous transfer, etc. (A handful of memes.)

The value of the slow-down strategy is easily explained: at any one time there would be more healthy people taking care of less ill. Whatever the CFR may be, this has value.

On the other hand, masks are not just masks, but making them, learning to use them, making them acceptable, and a whole lot of other issues.

We could explore those issues here?

lugon – at 03:48

So, to start with the easiest part first, What are the dangers in such masks? What are the “solutions” for such dangers?

  1. A false sense of security.
  2. Danger of infecting yourself when you remove it.
  3. Not easy to use properly in practice.
  4. Not easy to put and take off as needed - ex: when entering buses or whatever.
  5. What else?

Some (attempts at) solutions:

  1. Package the mask with an educational set, clearly stating that the mask is just as an element in the whole strategy.
  2. Maybe have a set of different masks: ones that offer little protection but are very easy to pull up and down (bandanas), others that are more sophisticated for home-care or, at stage 3, bird handling.

I mean, we have (some of) the knowledge. Let’s put ourselves in the shoes (or non-shoes) of people in a pandemic, and make the best of available knowledge and resources. Appropriate technology, they call it.

Let’s do some brainstorming around this, and build on each other’s ideas. Then we can distill whatever it is that shows some value, and offer that for further refinement!

lugon – at 04:01

We could also look at benefits of masks:

Some of these benefits (and problems) are only “potential”. We might find ways to confirm them. This is just exploration here, as wide and as far as we can!

lugon – at 04:03
lugon – at 04:07

FWIW.

26 May 2006

TTin AdaOKat 02:43

Been thinking about this for some time. What about the new fabric that you can’t spill anything on? Can’t remember what it’s called, but you’ve all seen the commercials. It’s made from some nano-technology application. If it’s stain proof, and sheds any spills, I’m thinking it might be just the thing. I think a band of vaseline might enhance the seal, but it wouldn’t come off easily—would this just not work? Would the virus impregnate the vaseline?

Just thinking.

MaMaat 02:59

TTin AdaOK, are you thinking of fabric that has recieved a coating of Teflon?

NewGuyat 03:14

I would think the best fabric would be Kleenex. I heard somewhere that they are actually pretty damn good as a filter. Maybe you could use some kleenex folded and held in place by a reqular dust mask instead of a resperator.

lugon – at 04:03

How can that be tested? There’s a scientific jargon chapter on that on http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol12no06/05-1468.htm and maybe someone might contact the authors and suggest that we work here openly (or somewhere else in a closed fashion, but I think we want more eyeballs), maybe with the idea to make it into http://www.instructables.org

I mean, the idea would be to build and test something that works better than other things, then help people make them for themselves and for others (small businesses? in Africa?) and then include that into a package with safety instructions (how to sneeze and cough properly, how to keep social distance, etc).

If the “how to make them” is open (wikipedia, “open design”), then we can have a “better than nothing” protection. I believe we gotta try our best on this one.

TTin AdaOK, NewGuy, others, how do we get this going?

our wikipage

lugon – at 04:06

Maybe we can simply look into the testing procedure and design a simple way to test the masks? Then we would know more, and we would be able to test this and other designs. Dem suggested bandanas long time ago - maybe bandanas + kleenex? Could we test that? Could we test one, then two, then more layers of kleenex?

Also, how do we improve “fit”?

Divide and conquer. Work together and make a difference. Make yourself a motto.

lugon – at 04:20

We will also want to focus on googles - but that’s easier. One problem at a time!

lugon – at 04:21

Sorry, I meant “goggles”. Hehehe!

Satago – at 06:13

I’ve been thinking about this for a while also, though not too deeply. I haven’t had a chance to cruise my local hardware store yet, but Im wondering about filters that are used in HVAC, and what sort of filtering ability they have (HEPA filters?). Can they be fitted into cartridges used in masks? Pry open the little cartridge, cut out a circle of HVAC -or whatever the best possible material is- and reassemble it into the cartridge? What is the best possible material?

Another thing I was wondering, if it’s possible to treat a mask with Lysol or disinfectant somehow. I wouldn’t want to spray Lysol in my face while wearing a mask, but if the surface of the mask could could be treated with something would that work? Maybe put it in a small box and spray it before putting it on. But how could you wear that without making yourself sick from fumes?

Urdar-No – at 08:32

I think we should choose two differnet strategies, If the entire populations had accsess to simple washable cloth masks, it would not proteckt them directly, but inderectly if everybody used it, it would surley have an effect. Stopping coughs aerosols and touching of face is very important. This mask would not need the strctly regime in handling since the wearer is only infecting him self.. The useage of this mask could be socialy pushed by shops, public transport etc, giving them away to their customers, and then after a certain period everbody would have a small supply of reusable masks, The proffesional masks would then also not “stand out” in the crowd as well. The western world still have plentyfull of garment industry that could produce this masks.

I think the largest problem on creating such a habbit in the population are our own “greed” for 100% safety, then ending up beeing our own enemy.. Even the feeling of a degree of safety would benefit the soceity. Its all about beeing honest about it, it will only protect the wearer directly by lets say 10–30% but its inderect protection would be the goal.

Imagine poorer countries dooong this, and succesfully damping the speed of spread, while hightech 100% safty conserned populations in the rich countries ending up with less protection, just because of the fear of “not good enough” or the lack of “regulations and verifiengs” … that would be very ironic…

Urdar-No – at 08:33

Satago. my chosen desinfectant would be pure alcohohol,, If filter contains paper its more destroyed by a water solution than alchool.. Isopropanol (rubbing alchohol) dryes in sekunds.. If the filter is entyerly made of plastc, i realy dont belive alcohol will degrade it, most thermoplastics are completly inert in contact with alchohol.

I dont know the Lysol chemical, i know its listed on wikipedia, and it looks like a strong chemikal..

Hepa filter may be used to make homade masks, but is propbably only P1 standard (european). In combination with other fabrics you could maybe be able to create a washable filter that equals N95, Adding some essentials oils that is known to kill viruses could also add on the effect, and maybe using fine copper/ silver / brass mesh could add on, but how to tell? I dont know how fast metals kills viruses, and if moisture is needed in the proces, anyone? … I am just trovhing out thoughts..

Looby Loo – at 08:45

I know this does not specifically come under this heading, but I wonder what plans are in place to secure national treasures such as works of art, transcripts, artefacts and other items of national and historical importance? If our public buildings are closed and people are too sick or not willing to come into work, how will they be protected from looters, accidental and environmental damage etc? They may only be material items at the end of the day but are important nonetheless.

Urdar-Norge – at 09:14
 maybe a chance for Egypt to get some missing artifackts back?, or maybe Irak… ;-)

I gues a mail or a telephone to your favouritt collection could do the trick? All prep is a good prep

lugon – at 10:12

Urdar-Norge - I agree fully. Will read more later, and try to think of ways to make this happen. We need tiny efforts here and there.

Urdar-Norge – at 16:07

well Lugon, if you supply the aprociate text, and the corect english definitions (and ideas for..) fabrics I will make a illustrated guide on DIY “simple mask” my mail is: urdar at fluwiki.no , or we may use this tread. Anyone with proposals for fabrics that has a very tight, and mayby “fussy” teksture? that is easaly awailable? I guess that a fabric that let little light trhu is better than one that does let thru much (not the color…) what about towels?… and what is it called thefabric that looks like silk, but is plastic?

Paper materials are maybe good, but then its a disposable, and that is not very helpfull in this contekst. Idea is to create simple cloth masks, washable, one for everyday in the week or more, that protects a much as possible, and has as main purpose to prevent spread out..

lugon – at 18:13

Let’s not forget fashionable. People want to recognise each other for acceptability.

Will do. It’s one of the things I want to look at. Can’t tell when. Glad if someone else starts it.

corrientempe – at 18:23

Here’s some masks “styles” during SARS, http://tinyurl.com/pfng7

I’m trying to find the site again that I used for a cotton mask pattern, I’ll add that to this string asap. I remember it recommended 4 layers of 100% cotton with 300 count threads. Since I sew, I went to the local Goodwill store and bought all the 300 ct white cotton bedsheet I could find. Not having time to make masks now, I just washed them on hot/hot with bleach, dried them and carefully packed them in ziplock bags for mask production later. Gotta find that mask pattern!

Corrie

FloridaGirlat 18:42

I am not sure if this has been posted before…. If it has, it was not recently.

Homemade Masks and their efficiency.

http://tinyurl.com/mmruh

Urdar-No – at 18:51

a pattern, and a guide made in a easy to understand graphic design with some explanation tekst on the subjekt was my idea. I will experiment with copying the shape of a regular M3 mask or a standard surgical mask. If three is some patterns allready it would be very nice. I will also try it out, with different fabrics.. to see if i discover some factors.. Maybe when this guide is finished, we could ask a lab to test it for free.? To see hov effiecent it is.. Will need english, legal and scientific type of tekst help on this….. :)

Satago – at 18:59

Stretching a bit now…wondering if nose plugs would somehow be a secondary barrier after the mask, or just rather than. I guess I’m thinking of a rather brief situation, like moving an infected patient or something. You wouldn’t want to limit your breathing to the extent that you can’t function, of course…bt a piece of duct tape or so over your mouth so you don’t open it…and some sort of “nose only” filter?

Stretching a bit more….does anyone know much about scuba diving, and how that apparatus could be modified? I don’t know much about scuba diving, (other than it’s something you do underwater!) but does the line from your breather just go right to the tank? How long is it? Can this be exploited somehow?

corrientempe - would adding a few of those “breathe right” nasal strips help make a snugger fit? Or even sewing in some wire to where the nose bridge is?

lugon – at 19:17

FloridaGirl - almost the same link is up at the beginning of this topic. Your “hidden” link takes us to a pdf file, which is nice to print out and share. If you don’t want to “hide” it behind a “tinyurl” then please use something like this: [[http://www.fluwikie2.com|this links to fluwikie forum]]

thanks!

We need to look into how to check the efficiency of these things.

Urdar-No – at 19:18

that was very interesting..

“We showed that a hand-fashioned mask can provide a good fit and a measurable level of protection from a challenge aerosol.”

“Even if N95 filtration is unnecessary for avian influenza, N95 fit offers advantages over a loose-fitting surgical mask by eliminating leakage around the mask.”

“Quality commercial masks are not always accessible, but anecdotal evidence has showed that handmade masks of cotton gauze were protective in military barracks and in healthcare workers during the Manchurian epidemic”

But the design is not very “fashionable” Using rubber bands would help on that. They are easaly availible in most countries. This report also makes norwegan pankomitees statement that “ masks dont help” look like a direct lie..

Urdar-No – at 19:28

my idea then would be to have one outer layer of “plastic silk” (term?) one layer of 100% cotton tshirt, one layer of towel (to create a fluffy thicknes to improve fit, and one layer of tshirt again.. and then a finaly layer of “plastic silk for comfort.. That would not be as good as 8 layers of tshirt would it? or maybe better? This study was based on whats awailible for a soldier in field (tshirts).. we have more materials.. and rubber bands.. thoughts?

Pat in Wa – at 19:40

check out this tiny url. http://tinyurl.com/p5zoe At the bottom of the page, lots of interesting reading on the page with pictures on how to make head cap and an apron along with the cotton surgical mask. It gives measurements, and pictures of how to cut out mask. Would still have to deal with making a better fit around the nose etc, but is a starting point.

lugon – at 19:46

Pat in Wa - I try to avoid use of tinyurl as it gives us a hidden link + uses an extra service that might break (tinyurl), instead, i used:

[[http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/dvrd/spb/mnpages/vhfmanual/annex1-5.htm|click here]]

to get “click here”.

lugon – at 19:50

and yes, that’s a good page too - hadn’t seen it.

So, based on what Urdar-No is saying, we might want to make it explicit that masks may be worn to avoid infecting others. So it’s a sign of good citizenship, then. Social pressure to have them on in public.

And of course, if I’m protected from others then I won’t carry the infection home.

In some communities it might work. And they’ll be able to tell the world: look, we are 2 thousand people and on the first week half of us used masks, and after that we all decided to use masks. (This is speculation.)

lugon – at 19:54

fit + filter

two different issues

testability

Satago – at 19:57

I can’t see trying to breathe through 8 layers of anything and be active, say, in a situation where you’re running through a grocery store. IMHO, one or two very efficient layers are going to be better than numerous layers.

Urdar-No – at 20:13

yes.. its allabout the thresshold soscialy.. on one certain point wearing a mask wil be “soscialy” forced.. (that is if the governments dont sabotage it,,)

one color on inside and one on outside is important I see.. Fit can be improved from the t shirt mask design,, Filter.. if 8 layers of tshirt is good enough, then we may go for that.

I guess that fluffyness is a factor for the fit.. this could be done by cotton (will be flat after washed, or a piece of towel, that has the thick wowen style.. I just compared it, look to the strong light thru some layers of white tshirt, compare it with a tovel.. the tovels is totaly differnt constructed and dont let light thru, this is equal a labyrint for particles…. And the “sateng” (?) is the thinest and most close wowen fabric that is comon availible,, If the goal is to create a very good “surgical mask” to prevent spread out, then it wouldent hurt if it also was just as good filter as in the article.. that will be a bonus..

corrientempe – at 20:38

Okay, never mind on the pattern I found, the links in the preceeding posts are far better (you guys are sooo way ahead of me). I say that the decorative mask(s) could be just one layer with a little velcro tab to facilitate washing and (for women…) changing colors based on ones outfit (as if that matters!).

Satago 18:59: Yes, I was even thinking about a small piece of florist’s wire, embedded in the finishing ribbon (bias tape 2 or 3 fold) on the nose section. My main concern is rust when you wash them. If one quickly dried the masks (hot dryer), you could probably avoid the rust, otherwise I would suggest electrical wire that is coated in plastic or rubber? What do you think?

Let me ask an incredible dumb question: Why will a mask be more effective in keeping a sick person from infecting others, but a mask is not as effective in keeping a well person insulated from the sick? I’m not a scientist and I already accept the verdict, but would like to understand the transimission mechanism.

By the way, I’m happy to be home from work now, sipping a margarita and starting the long weekend. I have a long list of “prep” to dos, but that can start tomorrow.

(taking my margarita to the porch to consider the heat - it is 102 degrees you know, a fairly pleasant day in Arizona).

Corrie

Urdar-No – at 21:05

the typical paper “surgical mask” like your dentist use, is not for his protection, but yours. It dont have the N100 or N95 filter capasity to protect the wearer. The purpose is to stop droplets flying out when talking and coughing. Look at it as i hankerschif constantly in place.. My intention is to try and create a popular/cool/easy way for everyone to make their own of this, one for each day. Made of fabric not paper, that can be washed in hot water and reused. The hole idea of disposables are the thing that got us into this mess in the first place.. The numbers needed is enourmous. And as we know, the N95 masks are not awailble for everyone, and they are expensive..

If a cloth mask is also “near N95″ quality, but you dont need to take the responsibility of such a claim, then there is a added bonus..

It will all stand on the numbers of people using it, my guess is that it will be a “socialy forced” etikette.. And it may be promoted by shops, and other public services like busses or subways. Just like they did in china during SARS…

Urdar-Norge – at 21:30

corrientempe: 38´C!? wow, lucky bastard :) here in the arctic its only 5´C (51F) and its 3:30 in the night,, my redvine is getting empty and so is my head :) An electrikcal copper wire is a good idea.

27 May 2006

Urdar-Norge – at 12:23

bump.. for cooperative thinking..

30 May 2006

wetDirt – at 12:49

I am inserting a quote from another thread: 03 May 2006 Medical Librarian, Back in Texas – at 16:26 Abstract of an article found on Pubmed/Medline

1: J Infect Chemother. 2006 Apr;12(2):73–9. Related Articles, Links

Inactivation of influenza A virus by gentian violet (GV) and GV-dyed cotton cloth, and bactericidal activities of these agents.

Nagayama A.

Department of Microbiology and Immunology, School of Medicine, Fukuoka University, 7–45–1 Nanakuma, Fukuoka, 814–0180, Japan, nagayama@fukuoka-u.ac.jp.

Recently we have heard warnings of an outbreak of a highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (H5N1). Although, to prevent such infections we must prepare anti-viral drugs and type-specific vaccines against influenza, we need various simple and effective protection methods, such as the use of face masks for public health. Also, in any consideration of bacterial infections, methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), vancomycin-resistant Enterococci (VRE), and multidrug-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa (MDRP) also pose serious concerns which must be addressed. I examined the antiviral activity of gentian violet (GV) and GV-dyed cloth against the influenza A (H1N1) virus. Time-kill studies were carried out, and the virus titer was determined based on the 50% tissue culture infective dose (TCID(50)). The minimum inhibitory concentrations (MICs) of GV against bacteria were also determined, and the killing activities of the GV-dyed cloth were judged from viable cell counts. GV immediately killed the influenza A virus and this was confirmed by electron microscopy. Moreover, cloth dyed with a combination of GV and copper showed not only excellent antiviral activity but also prominent bactericidal activities.

PMID: 16648946 [PubMed - in process] ======================= This seems important to me. If gentian-violet dyed cloth inactivated the virus, then the 8 layers in the t-shirt mask might be reduced to a couple layers with provision for a gentian-violet impregnated filter (this because you wouldn’t want the gentian violet layer against your skin, and you would probably want to have the ability to replace the filter without replacing the rest of the mask. Since there is no skin contact, the gentian violet could be technical grade, not medical grade. And I know all the yadda yadda stuff about it not being up to NIOSH standards. But driving across the Los Angeles Basin yesterday makes me think that we have to have _something_ to offer people.

corrientempe – at 12:59

Does anyone have a link to a source for gentian-violet cloth (re: WetDirts 12:49 post) so I can determine availability and cost? Sounds like a good “insert” to reusables.

wetDirt – at 13:05

corrientempe – at 12:59 Simpler than dirt: GV stains like crazy. Get a stainless steel stockpot, a white t-shirt, and a gram of GV. Boil water, put in a cup of salt like the Rit dye package says. Drop in shirt, soak in dye. Take the whole thing and pour it into the washing machine, and run through the rinse cycle. Pull out with hotdog tongs and hang to dry.

Did I mention it was messy? maybe bleach will get the spots off the stove.

wetDirt – at 13:13

Note added in proof. The RIT dye people would be an obvious place to start in getting the dye out to the public. Print mask construction instructions on the cardboard box.

lugon – at 16:28

bumped - has anyone tried contacting the authors of the paper, or making such masks themselves, or looking at how to measure performance?

If someone looks at the contact data, I can contact them. Small steps!

Prepping – at 20:39

I was thinking about trying to make a surgical style mask from a cloth diaper. They are already thicker in the middle than the sides of the cloth. If you make a seam around 4 corners, and add elastic etc. it will be more form fitting. I would then sew some ties on the four edges. Even thinking about sewing a pocket in the inside of the mask to fill with whatever filter material sounds most efficient.

bluerose – at 21:42

I use to make surgical masks for mission hospitals in India. We used high quality cotton and made the kind with folds in them. Make the folds, turn over the sides, attach 4 ties, and sew along each side. You could take a disposable one and take it apart. How much these masks will help is for others to debate.

By the way, dentists wear the masks so they don’t inhale the particles while drilling.

04 June 2006

Mari – at 10:01

Bump. Has anyone made one of these “simple” masks and compared it with an N95 mask? Most commercial patterns for sewing have different cutting lines for different sizes. If we can work out a pattern for a fabric mask that can be washed/disinfected and used again that might be more effective in the long run than a bunch of disposable masks that we run out of.

prepping – at 14:05

I have made about a dozen masks from both diaper materials, and from terrycloth. I made them in adult, and childrens sizes. The masks are surgical style with the elastic around the four edges. They fit well, if you make the elastic tight enough around the top part, it fits fairly tight across the nose, but it stays fairly close to your eyes. They are roomy enough to put a N95 mask on underneath.

The problem is the terrycloth is only one layer, and is very hot and uncomfortable to wear for any lenth of time, just like a N95 is. The diaper cloth one is a little easier to breathe through. The diaper cloth one has a pocket sewn inside to add filter material, maybe even one of those antibacterial tissues that are made now. With added layers for protection, they would be too hard to breathe through I am sure.

Urdar-Norge – at 14:23

Link on Gentian violet: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gentian_violet

My intention is to create a simple manual for a simple and easy mask that may be washed in hot water. How will this go togheter with Gentian violet? And how available is it?

To keep focus on this strategic, it is important to have in mind. 1, it main purpose is to prevent spread out. 2 If protection is raised for the wearer in comparison with a simple surgical mask or a cloth mask, this is only considered a bonus. 3 it has to be made by easaly avilable materals. 4 it has to be washable. (no paper or other disposable products as raw material. 5 its level of sucsess is complety dependent on a the amounts of people using it, (or other masks like dispoables or N95)

any ideas?

Urdar-Norge – at 15:20

http://www.ritdye.com is a brand ( I dit not know..) anyone living in the US that may send them a email, asking if any (and which) color actualy contain Gentian violet the chemical? Datasheets would be the best.) Many modern colors are synthetic, and may no longer contain the orignal pigment used that gave them their name.. ( I gues the virus dont die of fear when its sees a spesific shade of violet.. (unless its the violet from hitchhikers guide maybe..)

Urdar-Norge – at 15:29

Blurose: do you know any illustrated guide to the masks you described? And is there any ways you could think of, that would improve their fit?

If comercial cloth dye is in fact Gentian violet, what then about the fixating salt? Could it destroy the pigments antiviral effekt? How was it done in the study..?

MAV in Colorado – at 15:40

just remember that the outside of ANY mask is considered contaminated and a potential source of self contamination if touched or otherwise not donned and doffed? correctly after an infectious exposure. This is true for any PPE. Wearing PPE can provide a false sense of security if not used with strict technique. Read up on the CDC and WHO sites re PPE. I have seen some good illustrated manuals for this very issue somewhere on those sites.

anonymous – at 15:53

Please don’t laugh, but after 9/11 and the anthrax scare, I started taping coffee filters together, double layers, and taped around the edges with the tape extending so it could stick to the vace and form a seal. I tried to get my kids and husband to carry one in their pocket when riding the subway. Hard to breathe through though.

I wonder, are most odors also tiny particles, so can we judge the effectiveness by how a mask filters out odors, like cat box, smoke, onion, etc? If so, I found that an easy way to get enough air is to put on a bandana that tucks into the shirt, so that you’re really breathing the air up through your clothes instead of through the bandana, or mask. I guess that would not be good if you were walking over spit globs on the sidewalk at the time. But in a crowded place with people breathing, like a bus or trolley, I would rather do that than breath other’s exhalations. And maybe add a few spritzes of herbal vinegar, which may also keep others at a distance.

anonymous – at 16:00

Another thought: maybe several layers of puffy gauzy material (by “plastic silk” do you mean nylon, or polyester?) that may baffle the particles without stopping the air, like chiffon or something, or even cheap silk, would stop a percent of the viri if not all. I like the direction of this thread. We shouldn’t be helplessly waiting for outside technology to step in. My kids used to wrap a t-shirt around their heads Ninja-style when cleaning up the dog mess or dusty basement. Something is better than nothing! Good idea, Lugon.

Lorelle – at 16:00

Oh, it was me in those last 2 posts. Lorelle

MaMaat 16:22

I haven’t been able to get the Teflon fabric thought out of my head since it was mentioned awhile ago. I’m going to try to find out more about it’s suitability for this purpose. If it looks promising I’m going to buy a small quantity of it and try using it as an outer layer when constructing some cloth masks to try out.

Good point Lorelle! We can experiment with different materials and designs for the masks, but how to go about testing them properly? What’s the right method and criteria?

Lorelle – at 16:37

A thought about teflon and other synthetics…I remember a study about cutting boards (bear with me) and whether wood or plastic is more sanitary. People at first thought plastic, then found out the wood, because it’s porous and dries more thoroughly, had less of the germs (salmonella etc.) after a time period than the plastic, which had little scratches in it that kept the stuff damper longer and harbored the bad little buggers. Can this possibly apply to fabrics too? Or maybe Teflon on just the outer layer as MaMa suggests so droplets roll off.

SCW AZ – at 16:40

I think you’re all trying to re-invent the wheel. Pick up a box of N-95′s. . . PLEASE. You’ll be using masks that have been tested and certified. Is this really something you want to be a DIY project???

Gar – at 16:49

Is gentian violet used to treat skin fungus and diaper rashes in years gone by?

Mari – at 16:50

I used N95′s working on my insulation project up in the attic. I could take 1–2 hours wearing one (this was in the winter), but then would have to come down, take the mask off, drink a lot of water, and cool down for 30 min or so. Wearing one all day, especially trying to do any physical work, would be really tough. If I tried to use commercial masks that were contaminated and had to be disposed of each time I removed one, I’d go through at least 5 per day.

Gar – at 16:51

Forgot to add a Alpine plant.

Urdar-Norge – at 16:57

Lorelle: and others propsing bandanas and scarfs. I think this will also prevent some of the spread OUT from a person who is infected. But its a lousy way to protect yourself. You will have a hard time deciding witch part of the scarf is infected or not.. So you would actualy end up vacuming the air for small amounts of viruses, and then ending up putting the lot of them right into your face..

Chiffon?, yes maybe, we call it “sateng” very popular amoung the asians for dresses.. It is very fine treads, and its very smooth. And not very expensive.. The idea was that the outer layer to be made of a smooth fabric, just to prevent klogging of dust. Then the other layers are the oposite, to catch the virus in the mesh.

Ma Ma: the teflon, is it easaly available in some kind of product? For what purpose is it for? and is it expensive? I thibk that if a fabric is smooth, it will not catch the viruses.. but if the pores ar every narrov but plenty it could be usefull..

One question again: is regulary towels in the US made of 100% cotton?, like it is here?

lugon – at 17:03

SCW AZ – at 16:40

I think you’re all trying to re-invent the wheel. Pick up a box of N-95′s. . . PLEASE. You’ll be using masks that have been tested and certified. Is this really something you want to be a DIY project???

Most people all over the world will not be able to “pick up a box of N95″. Even in countries where they are available now, there will not be enough for most people most of the time. Something that’s not perfect but that allows us to “slow each local outbreak down a bit” will help us deal with it better. Yes, we need to add a page with instructions on how to cough properly etc.

And it’s not necessarily a DIY thing. We can have t-shirt factories turned into simple-masks factories, adding to the “war effort” - yes, you get what you pay for, maybe. But 50% protection for 80% population is better than 100% protection for 1% population - or whatever the figures may be - hope you get the idea. I mean, it’s better even for the 1% of the population who have plenty of N95! Yes, because they get less disruption.

We need to work harder on this - or perhaps just smarter.

lugon – at 17:06

Also, who says we can’t have “simple, yet certified masks”?

Urdar-Norge – at 17:56

SCW AZ: I think you should read the whole tread. :) notice the part: there is not ENOUGH mask for EVERYBODY EVERYDAY.. And we are not discussing a replacemnet for a N95/N100.. Just trying to find a way to create a clothmask that can be washed (disinfected with hot water), resused over and over, that will have as main purpose to get everyone (thats the hope) to use it all the time. So if anyone is infeckted they dont spread… And to do so we will have to reinvent the wheel by making the existing cloth masks and manuals betther.. AND if dosing so also means we can make a mask that is more effective than trad. cloth masks in protecting the wearer from infection, then it will be a big bonus :D

And I have a good feeling about Gentian violet.. It may mean that we can reduce the numbers of layers.. making the masks more comfy, and then more popular (among those who will not have an hughe supply of disposables.. And that goes for allmost anybody who plan to try to ride this storm of, and not SIP..

Swann – at 21:38

Urdar: Here’s a link that provides some good information about synthetic fabrics such as rayon. The spandex may be something to look at because of its stretchiness.

http://tinyurl.com/0

SCW AZ – at 21:44

Urdar-Norge – at 17:56 SCW AZ: I think you should read the whole thread. :)

You are all 100% correct. Functioning like a (broken) machine today. FBI (food borne illness) from a chinese meal. . . food was great. . . results were terrible. . .

Will cypher on this and report back when head is somewhat clear

Swann – at 22:11

Sorry, the Tinyurl link doesn’t seem to be working. Try this one:

http://home.howstuffworks.com/how-to-clean-synthetic-fabrics.htm

wetDirt – at 23:00

Point of clarification: I didn’t say RIT *made* the dye, I only speculated that they had the facilities to package it.

Another thing: I repeat, do not wear the gentian violet against your skin, it needs to have a layer of cloth in between.

And I recommend the t-shirt fabric, which is a knitted, not woven, fabric. The t-shir mask has layers at right angles, this is to make sure that the particles can’t slip between the meshes of a woven fabric. If you look at the fabric with a magnifier, you can see that woven fabric has bigger spaces than knits. In a knit, the threads are piled up two deep everywhere, in a woven fabric, there is only one thread in a layer, usually (plain weave—twills are different).

Also: Gentian Violet is in the coal-tar dye family, and these dyes, particularly when inhaled, are suspected of being mutagenic or carcinogenic. You have to be very careful with the powder, and not breathe it. Remember, you are going to use it to kill viruses, it is not nice stuff in the first place.

Swann – at 23:39

I’m wondering if pipe cleaners sewn into the edging in the upper part of the mask would work to adapt the fit over the nose.

05 June 2006

Urdar-Norge – at 07:36

thx WetDirt. I was thinking of dyiing the towell layer maybe? that goes in the middle. I think towles are good since they are fluffy, and makes a better fit, and has a large surface for partikles to get caught. and is easaly awailible for everyone.

 Pipecleaners vill be to soft, electric vires have been proposed, they are more stiff, and dont rust. (good for washing)

keep up the good thinking! :)

11 June 2006

DemFromCTat 16:24

i wonder if hiking socks (partially water repellent) would be useful material. Two pair might have enough material for 8 washable masks. Electric wire sewn in for fit on the upper side … and what are the ties made from?

BroncoBillat 16:39

Fabric-covered elastic bands found in most fabrics shops could be sewn in at the top and bottom, much like the N-95 dust masks at local hardware stores have. Measure around the crown of the head, and around the back of the neck from where the material would cover the face. Add a couple of inches for foldover seams, and voila! The Mask!

lugon – at 18:14

DemFromCT, BroncoBill, all - we need to find out how to test how useful these things are. Something like the MIT Labs, for masks. Prototype after prototype. Open design.

Urdar-Norge – at 18:42

wanted link: the blu /purple N95(?) masks that is coated with a chemical. Maybe its Gentian Violett, I cant find any links anymore…

and for discusion: the synthic plastic cleaning “cloth” fabrics.. some is very similar with masks in the fiber structure. And they can be boiled. brandnames? materials?

12 June 2006

Swann – at 00:00

Hi Urdar! I’m not sure if you are referring to microfiber fabrics, used in washable mopping pads. Two brand names are Swiffer and Bissell.

http://www.brainerdlakes.biz/microfiber.htm

Swann – at 00:55

Urdar: I thought you would be interested in seeing these masks which are apparently coated with herbal substances. Check out the printed fabrics!

http://www.breathehealthy.net/Merchant2/merchant.mvc?Screen=SFNT&Store_Code=masks

Mari – at 09:17

lugon has mentioned that one or more FluWikians could “adopt” a subject area. One of the things an adopter could do for simple masks is find someone willing to test different mask designs using standard aerosol testing techniques. Any of the companies that manufacture N95 masks should either have the equipment to test the efficiency of their masks or contract out for the testing. Universities working with aerosols also would have the necessary equipment. We’d need to have someone test several simple mask designs using typical breathing rates for (1) the layers of material around the nose & mouth, and (2) the outside edge of the mask fitted to one of the standard “faces” described in the CDC article. Maybe the place to start is the University of Pittsburgh, where the work for the above article was done.

SCW AZ – at 10:30

This project can be broken down into separate sections (NOT threads) that different people could work on or “specialize” in.

Filtering media: What fabric to use.

Sizing: design of template(s) that will be used to cut fabric.

Face Seal: Design of “system” that provides for seal to face .

Straps: Choice of material and design to hold mask to users face.

SCW AZ – at 11:08

Things to watch for in this project:

Filtering media: What fabric to use. . .

Fabric thickness / density:

Most important, whatever material is used has to be small enough to capture the virus, but also allow for EASY airflow.

If the material is too dense, airflow will take the least line of resistance and bypass the filter entering the users airway via the face seal.

If material is too dense, humidity will build up quickly from exhalations reducing airflow and bypass the filter entering the users airway via the face seal.

Face Seal:

Needs to provide uniform and flexible seal to face.

Determine if a “crossbar” should be used to “puff out” or cup (like a bra) filtering material.

Determine if face seal will “anchor” straps or if straps will attach solely to fabric.

If straps are attached to seal, they must not negatively affect seal by unduly distorting.

Straps:

Adjustable or one size fits all

How to attach to mask (to mask seal or direct to fabric)

Sizing:

Two sizes, three at the most should be enough.

13 June 2006

Urdar-Norge – at 17:41

Bump. Microfiber sounds very interesting, is seems to keep its characteristics when wet, and are boil-proof. Possible problem; products that claims to be MF, that is not.

Gentian Violet..? is it easy to get by? Can it be bought in the US? In art supply stores, do you have these stores? in smaller cities?

Splitting up the research: Someone with experience on coloring try to do (or describe ) the dying of a fabric (a white towel 100% cotton? Enough for 15 masks (towel 120×65cm 47×25 inch). Write down experience, and post it as a scetch for a step to step guide.

Can it be boiled afterward without losing color, does it get onto the other layers of fabric? Eventual avoiding problem with pigment dust etc

I will try to sew a model, based on the other models posted here. And I will thru a simple “pepper test “ and “rising test” se if the fit is good enough. Other may also do this and post their thinking.

Finally we will have a manual with a number of fabrics, Gentian Violet possibly, and a design manual illustrated. (need legal and social text in english! Then send it to any party that would like to find out how efficient it would be. And remember that main goal is to have a social protection. A high % protection of the wearer is the bonus that will make it “sell”

Svann: No: the mask was color dyed with a chemical with antiviral efect, i belive it was a industrial standard mask, (found a link to the produser half year ago here.) Esential oils could be helpfull, but it has to be the single vearers choice, (hard to breath those amuounts needed over time I belive).

wetDirt – at 18:01

Urdar-Norge, I am in the process of trying to obtain some gentian violet, it is not very easy to get, and I’m having some trouble with ordering. I’m not sure yet, but experience with other dyes makes me think that GV will work best on natural fabrics like 100% cotton, and might not take well on synthetics like polyester or microfiber. I think jersy knits will work better than wovens, even towels, because knits have two layers of fiber, not one. I have access to an industrial fit-test setup, and plan to try some ideas out once I get the GV.

Urdar-Norge – at 18:48

brilliant! I se the problem to get GV as hughe drawback on the usage.. My idea of using towel would be that its the middle layer (away from skin) and has as purpose to be “fluffy” for fit. (and its a very common material) I also think that towel fabric is “meshy” like pure cotton, but keeps it fluff after wash. It is easy to breath thru, but stops light and that means its like a labyrint for particles to get caught, and has larger surface for a antiviral chemikal like GV..

Any other proposals for a common chemical? (disinfectants would not work since they are vaporissing and are probably harmful to breath)

14 June 2006

lugon – at 04:32

Two ideas:

Maybe someone can explore the feasibility of reconverting the cut-and-build patterns so that they will be able to start building masks in a rush?

Of course, our amateurish t-shirt based masks could also be made directly by t-shirt makers if they can pre-shrink and cut them in advance. Many people will not have the skill or the needed peace of mind to build their own.

Also, if many people wear these masks from day one, then that will mean better acceptabilty, more people wearing them, and more overall protection. It’s all about decreasing R-naught to make it go below one.

lugon – at 04:34

Also, we need to look into the weak points in other masks: if fit is the problem, then we may need some “sponge” glued to the edges.

How are contacts with “testers” going?

Urdar-Norge – at 06:30

the usage of disposables (paper material) is not a solution, the hole problem is based on the nature of dispoables, there just aint enough to keep it going day after day. Thats why we need a solution that is washable, (boil wash)

It is a problem that some people is not able to sew whith needle and tread, but thats just the way it is.. The DIY manual should be easy to understand. And the usage of glue could also be examined.

The weak sides of reg mask are that the moulded ones are stiff, and so may not fit. The cloth one will not have this problem i think. I will start with a copy of 3Ms folded mask, and see if it can be improved in shape. I do study a design field, this is my favourit problem solving thing to do :) I will then post a scetch for the FWans to test out and corect the textings.

Lorelle – at 09:25

Urdar-Norge, I really appreciate your persistence, and hope you don’t give up until we have a good solution for the global populations. I think towel is a good idea for the inside, like you said. I have been making antiviral vinegar sprays, and I think (hope) that a good spritzing will make the outside of the mask too acid and unwelcoming for a virus to stay strong. Maybe spray several times a day. Or, maybe after washing the mask, rinse in diluted vinegar, which is available in most places. Does anyone know if the fabric would still be acidic after the vinegar dries?

Also, maybe some companies that already sell popular clothes to young people around the world, (not sure who, Old Navy or something?)could make the masks popular in a hurry. Sell to those who can pay, and distribute for free in some areas. Even life and death things have to be “cool” for the young people to follow.

MaMaat 10:42

Lorelle, very good thoughts with the vinegar. I don’t know for sure if the ph would be the same dry, but I’d hazard to guess it would still be somewhat acidic.

There is some precedence for the use of vinegar as a medicine and for disinfection.

From wikipedia…”Vinegar is a folk medicine used in China to prevent the spread of virus such as SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) and other pneumonia outbreaks:

    “On February 13, 2003 news of a type of atypical pneumonia that appeared in six cities of south China’s Guangdong province has been brought under control, with no cases reported since Monday. According to press conferences held by the Guangdong and Guangzhou governments, local governments at various levels have taken emergency measures to control the prices of isatis root, vinegar and other related anti-virus medicines, which saw soaring prices due to their effectiveness in curing this disease” (source unknown)…”

…”Apple cider vinegar (ACV) is a much more useful astringent than ice and will reduce inflammation, bruising and swelling in approximately a third of the time that ice will take. Application is directly onto the skin with a flannel, and left on for an hour or so.

Vinegar along with hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) is used in the livestock industry to kill bacteria and viruses before refrigeration storage. A chemical mixture of peracetic acid is formed when acetic acid is mixed with hydrogen peroxide. It is being used in some Asian countries by aerosol sprays for control of pneumonia. A mixture of five-percent acetic acid and three-percent hydrogen peroxide is commonly used…”

wikipedia.org/wiki/Vinegars#Medicine

Lorelle – at 10:46

Thanks MaMa. I like simple cheap solutions. I have PH strips that I haven’t tried yet. Maybe I’ll try to test the already dried, vinegar-sprayed cloth and see what happens.

MaMaat 10:55

I’d suggest testing wet and dry both to compare, but you probably already thought of that:-)

Please let us know how it turns out.

Lorelle – at 12:14

Well, I think we need someone with better technology. The strips I have don’t seem very accurate. The pure vinegar looks like around PH of 4, and the dried vinegar-soaked cloth, (wetted again with a little water) looks like ….well, never mind. Where’s a scientist? I’m just a housewife.

SCW AZ – at 12:17

Lugon, MaMa, Lorelle, Urdar-Norge, WetDirt and all others,

I previously made a post about just getting N-95 masks with out reading the whole thread. . . Bad me

I think the pursuit of a “mask for all” project is noble and worthy, but I see lots and lots of problems too. I feel that this is a difficut task, that is very close to impossible.

I am involved with worker safety in the US, keeping construction workers safe during re-fuling outages in nuclear power plants. I have taken all the respirator training available and am qualified to do mask fits on employees.

Throughout the posts I see things that just will not work. If you would like me to point these out, I’d love to. If not I’ll shut up and go away. I don’t have all the answers, but I can see problems.

If you’ld like me to be “part of the team” as a devil’s advocate, count me in. If not, I will not be a “basher”, stopping by to do nothing but be negative.

MaMaat 12:22

SCW AZ, I can only speak for myself of course, but IMO having someone qualified and knowledgable to point out problems/shortcomings is a good thing. After all we don’t just want face coverings, we want something that will offer some protection, or what’s the point?.

Any positive suggestions or comments would of course be welcome too:-)

Lorelle – at 12:28

SCW AZ – at 12:17 Yes, Please point out the problems. That’s why it’s called “cooperative thinking”. If any of us thought we had the final product, we would be busy making them instead of talking about it.

wetDirt – at 13:53

SCW AZ – at 12:17

I, for one, would appreciate some pro feedback. I work in the Environmental industry, with exposure to a lot of toxics, and I understand where you are coming from. That said, however, I still see a niche for a reusable mask that is within reach of most people without access to the real thing. I rather suspect that some ideas just won’t be viable, in particular, the idea to spray stuff on the fabric like vinegar or oils.

Here is what I would like: a critique of my proposed mask. Nobody else’s for the moment. I have a tough hide. (squishy down in there somewhere, though) My design intent: A washable mask that will nearly meet the n-95 standard. To be used for a few hours at a time. Requiring minimal sewing skills, and home equipment.

For a basic mask, I propose the t-shirt mask with multiple filter layers as has already been described by others. This design seems to me to be well thought-out, and has attempted to answer the leakage problems pretty well, as well using available materials.

The one change is to make a pocket and use a gentian violet dyed filter. I have posted an article above regarding gentian violet. I see the GV as taking up the slack in the particulate filtering capability. It addresses the impulse to kill the viruses after capturing them. I’m not crazy about the suspension system, because it’s fiddly and going to be hard to manage taking the mask off. But I understand its purpose, and wonder if a velcro variation might work.

I am firmly in the camp that wearing a mask is better than nothing, and wearing a well-fitting mask is better than a poorly-fitting one. I firmly believe that getting a decent mask out will save substantial lives for the general public, particuly those who have not prepared and must leave their homes for provisions.

I suspect that a variation of the gentian violet idea might even help health-care workers. I see a huge problem before us when the disposable masks run out. I’d like to get cracking on solving it.

lugon – at 19:09

SCW AZ – at 12:17 - please do point out the problems, with details as to why things don’t work. Hunches count, and reasons and numbers are better.

wetDirt - I have a “population” view. I’m not exactly sure, but if a mask reaches a certain level of protection, then it might diminish R-naught. In the end we’ll see a combined strategy: most people will not SIP, but a combination of commercial masks, simple masks, social distance, asynchronous transfer, hand-washing, respiratory ettiquette, home care etc, all of that together might make it. Simple masks are one element.

And we don’t know how good they can become with open design. We haven’t finished yet.

15 June 2006

wetDirt – at 00:05

The T-shirt mask hits the mainstream:

t-shirt mask story

Reuters has it, too.

Closed and Continued - BroncoBillat 01:28

Closed for length. New thread started here.

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.CooperativeThinkingSimpleMasks
Page last modified on October 26, 2006, at 11:24 AM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / News Reports for October 25

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: News Reports for October 25

25 October 2006

AnnieBat 01:05

Summary from Indonesia Outbreak as at 24 October 2006

Cases DiscussedJun-06Jul-06Aug-06Sep-06Oct-06Total
Died, no tests2243415
Died, tested positive4323315
Other tested positive013105
Suspected symptoms42463826116
Tested negative062619758
Totals1014816440209

Lookout Posts – here are the links

(Please see the thread Volunteers Needed as Lookouts Worldwide if you want to help)


Summary of News for 24 October 2006

(From WHO as at 16 Oct - latest update) Total human cases worldwide 256, deaths 151 (2006 – 109 with 73 deaths)
(If you want the links to open in a new window, hold down the shift key and then click on the link)

India

Indonesia

Nigeria

Russia

United Kingdom

United States of America

Zanzibar

General

Link to news thread for 24 October (link News Reports for October 24 )
(Usual disclaimer about may not have captured everything. Feel free to add your own where omissions have occurred.)
Please note that I copy the links directly from the thread so if they don’t work you may need to re-visit the Thread.

AnnieBat 01:10

S. Korea to implement tough bird flu prevention measures beginning November

SEOUL, Oct. 25 (Yonhap) — South Korea plans to implement a series of tough measures aimed at preventing bird flu from hitting the country during the winter months, the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry said Wednesday. The plan, which will run from November through February, calls for the government to step up quarantine and monitoring efforts to stem the flu from coming into the country through imports of infected birds and poultry. The measures also come as there are increased concerns that migrating birds which travel south in the winter season may bring the deadly bird flu virus into the country.

The ministry said imports of poultry and live birds from China and Thailand are banned since both have reported cases of the disease, while authorities said they will tighten the monitoring of products from other countries that run high risks. South Koreans travelling abroad will also be advised not to bring in poultry from countries that run high risks. Agricultural quarantine officers will be placed in all international airports and sea terminals to enforce these rules.

Domestically, authorities said they will step up the monitoring of duck and chicken farms and take immediate action if a case is discovered. If a bird flu case is reported, the government plans to quarantine an area up to 3 kilometers from the suspected site and destroy all birds that could have contracted the disease. Movement of birds from the region and the surrounding area will be forbidden for at least 30 days.

more … link http://tinyurl.com/yafw6w

AnnieBat 01:17

(USA - Maryland) County hospitals brace for flu pandemic As locals plan for potential outbreak, state officials to monitor Maryland’s poultry industry Wednesday, Oct. 25, 2006

by Anju S. Bawa Special to The Gazette (link http://tinyurl.com/ucpzb)

No one knows when or where a pandemic flu will strike or how bad it will be, but five county hospitals have a plan to alert medical care workers, and officials are monitoring Maryland’s poultry industry for signs of an avian flu outbreak.

Montgomery’s hospitals have been participating in a 24-hour program that collects electronic data from the community, such as emergency room visits, drug sales and school absenteeism. The data are then analyzed by computer for unusual patterns.

‘‘It gives a picture of what is going on in the community in terms of health,” said Kathy Wood, manager of emergency planning at the county Department of Health and Human Services. The system was piloted in Montgomery County four years ago and has expanded to the Washington, D.C., area, Wood said.

<snip>

The hospitals also have emergency plans for operating with only half of their employees and a surge of patients.

Seasonal flu is caused by human influenza viruses .. <snip> .. However, a pandemic, or global outbreak, can occur if a type of virus emerges that can spread easily from human to human, travel around the world, and cause serious illness and death in people who have little natural immunity to it.

<snip>

‘‘The avian flu is not an epidemic or a pandemic yet,” said Mimi Cameron, a doctor and infectious disease specialist from Kaiser Permanente who spoke last week at the Holy Cross Hospital roundtable. Notably, all of the cases of infection were from poultry. ‘‘Poultry is big in Maryland,” Cameron said, referring to the industry centered on the Eastern Shore.

There are protocols in place for community farmers. If avian flu is detected on a farm, all the animals will be killed and composted on site. Regulations for maintaining poultry require farmers to shelter and test the birds regularly, but this may not be the case for organic farming, Cameron said.

Cameron said she eats organic chicken and eggs, but if a case of avian flu occurred, she would stop consumption all together.

Marilyn Bassford, coordinator of the National Animal Identification System and Poultry Registration for the Maryland Department of Agriculture, is worried about ‘‘backyard flocks” that are open to contact by wild birds, which increases the possibility of flu transmission. Many households raise chickens, ducks or other birds on their property.

Bassford estimated there are 50 backyard flocks in Montgomery County, and encouraged registration to increase protection. ‘‘We need a working knowledge of these flocks to quickly test them in case of a problem,” she said by telephone Friday.

<snip>

‘‘We have had a state of laissez-faire about emergency preparedness because people feel that nothing bad happens here,” said Amy Waye, communications manager at Suburban Hospital in Bethesda.

AnnieBat 03:24

Quarantine lifted in bird flu-hit area of Inner Mongolia

The quarantine imposed on an area in north China’s Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, which was hit by an outbreak of bird flu last month, has been lifted, local authorities announced on Wednesday.

A ceremony was held to mark the lifting of the quarantine in Jiuyuan District of Baotou city on Wednesday morning.

Experts with the regional headquarters for the prevention of major animal-related epidemics said that no new outbreak of bird flu had been reported since the last poultry was culled 21 days ago.

Nearly 1,000 chickens and ducks were reported to have died suddenly on a poultry farm in Xincheng Village of Jiuyuan District in Baotou City on September 27. The national avian influenza laboratory later confirmed that the H5N1 virus was found in samples of the dead poultry. About 30,000 fowls within three kilometers of the farm were subsequently slaughtered. No human infections were found.

more at http://tinyurl.com/yl8n29

Blue – at 04:27

«!ACHTUNG!»

 http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2006-10/25/content_5245020.htm

Possible vectors for North America.

I couldn’t see that this had been put up.

 !!
AnnieBat 04:35

Ta Blue. This story is about the wood duck and laughing gull being very susceptible to HPAI viruses. It was first posted here on Monday if memory serves me - no guarantee on the memory doing anything really ;-)

johnO – at 04:55

Slow-ish news day I see. Oh well, little news is good news.

cottontop – at 06:37

Bird flu leads to drop in exports from Maryland www.worldpoultry.comm click on news

Vietnamese Village chief dismissed for embezzling bird flu funds www.iht.com click on regions

Fears of bird flu appear over blown www.pjstar.com/services/redirects/methodist.html

crfullmoon – at 06:41

(can’t find the story on the methodist hosp link), but I’d reckon community preparations for “human pandemic influenza” are much “under”-blown

Commonground – at 06:51

Heads Up Hunters: http://tinyurl.com/wnwqf
Monday, October 23, 2006
Snippet from Pro Med Mail
Low pathogenic avian influenza commonly occurs in wild birds. It typically causes only minor sickness or no noticeable signs in birds. These strains of the virus include LPAI H5N1, commonly referred to as “North American” H5N1, which is very different from the more severe HPAI H5N1 circulating overseas.There is no known health risk to hunters or hunting dogs from contact with low-pathogenic forms of avian influenza virus. Nevertheless, hunters are always encouraged to use common-sense sanitation practices, such as hand washing and thorough cooking, when handling or preparing wildlife of any kind. DOI has issued guidelines for safe handling and preparation of wild game.For more information about USDA’s efforts and research related to avian influenza, go to <http://www.usda.gov/birdflu>.For more information about Interior’s efforts and hunter education program, go to <http://www.doi.gov/issues/avianflu.html>.For information about the federal government’s overall efforts related to avian influenza and human pandemic preparedness, go to <http://www.avianflu.gov/>.

cottontop – at 06:57

crfullmoon @ 06:41

sorry about that. my link won’t let me acess that link for some reason. will try later to get that.

Modsplease address – at 08:59

Comments….I couldn’t get the link to Methodist either and would really like to see the story.The headline makes me very disappointed tho.I did alot of work on spreading the preparedness message this last winter and spring thru my methodist church with the help of our pastor.I hate to see backsliding.

anonymous – at 09:21

New York Times / Face Facts http://tinyurl.com/yelmoe

Pixie – at 09:48

Anonymous - at 9:21:

I read that op-ed yesterday. Most of it is good information, but the author does state that respirators can be reused because the virus does not live on the material they are made with for long (?).

Also, the author is not a medical authority or a scientist, but a professor at the Stanford Business School.

cottontop – at 10:26

sorry folk, but that link has disappered. however, I found a couple of links dealing with churches /families preparing. Is it o.k. to post these?

banshee – at 11:27

Bird Flu May Return to Europe in Coming Weeks, UN Agency Says from Bloomberg

Bird flu may return to Europe in the coming weeks, spread by wild ducks, swans and geese carrying the lethal virus south from their Arctic mating grounds…[more]

banshee – at 11:34

Bird flu warning prevents world pandemic from Asia News (Italy)

UN official says early warning on possible virus mutation generated right response in governments, preventing an immediate pandemic. He makes an appeal for Indonesia and Africa…Although the number of H5N1 virus-related deaths is rising, the United Nations is satisfied that a quick response by governments last year prevented a pandemic, said David Nabarro, a senior UN health coordinator..Many experts also believe it will take five to 10 years to change poultry rearing practices, especially in countries where poultry is plentiful and birds are kept in the backyard…

http://tinyurl.com/y6vqze

uk bird – at 12:12

I can’t quite equate the mood that we have evaded a bird flu pandemic with the increasingly prescriptive plans for social distancing and masks etc.

http://tinyurl.com/yk6etq

Pandemic Flu Patients Should Stay Home, U.S. Officials May Say

Oct. 24 (Bloomberg) — Health officials may propose a plan to prevent the spread of pandemic flu in the U.S. that includes treating sick patients at home, rather than in hospitals.

The home therapy option is based on computer models showing that limiting personal contact may slow growth of a pandemic. Advisers to the U.S. Institute of Medicine are meeting tomorrow in Washington to determine if scientific estimates are strong enough to make health policy decisions affecting the lives millions of Americans in a deadly flu outbreak.

etc.

Tom DVM – at 12:43

Hi uk bird. I made a few comments about this article yesterday but will add a few here as well.

In day to day life, we deal with two kinds of knowledgable experts…there are those on the ground whether they are mothers, teachers, nurses, grocery store clerks, truck drivers, farmers etc…

…since they are on the front line, the interface, all the time they are continually monitoring input from the particular environment they are emersed in…

…and then there are the supervisors…they are at arms length from the public and from feedback systems that are operating instantaneously in all environments.

So in this case, supervisors were asked to come up with a solution for the problem of a complete lack of surge capacity in hospitals. They thought for a moment and then said, I know, we will treat everyone at home…

…even higher supervisors, even more removed from the public are thrilled with the conclusion and this is the first attempt at preconditioning the public to this eventuallity.

However, they and the American (Canadian) Medical Assocs. have failed to also inform the public that they will not only not have hospitals but will not have any twentieth century treatments for secondary infections from influenza.

In a pandemic, the demand for broad spectrum antibiotics is going to rise, I would expect by thousands or millions of times. It would take years for pharmaceutical companies to ramp up production…and they will be lucky if production doesn’t go down significantly due to a significant percentage of pharmaceutical workers being away from work or dead.

I have done some calculations and I believe for 60 dollars, every child could have not only medications but also adequate food supplies if the pandemic comes to pass.

It seems to me that 60$/young person is a pretty good investment.

So, the bottom line is that we are to get sick at home, recieve no treatment or food deliveries at home and to die at home…and we are to accept this happening to our children because some supervisor…

…who has never been on the front line, expects us to?

In Canada in 2003, friendly supervisors from the World Health Organization, Health Canada and local hospitals and health units, suggested that all the protection nurses and doctors needed was surgical masks…

…the supervisors did not have to serve on the interface with the public in hospital emergency departments…too bad!!

Annonx2 – at 15:08

Tom DVM and/or Dr. Woodson

question … I accept that the primary treatment will be at home. Assuming that situation, if one comes down with Pandemic BF, assuming one is treated with or without Anti-virals (tamiflu, relenza, etc.), and survives the virus … next potential issue may be pneumonia?

I assume that is the point of Tom’s statement of need for broad spectrum antibiotics. I understand that antibiotics are not for viral infections.

How, and at what point would a layman caregiver (such as myself) be able to recognize (and differentiate) the symptoms of bacterial based pneumonia (if it set in) that would require the use of antibiotics?

Is there a simple symptoms guide/flow chart to help a layamn diagnose? What tools and/or eperience required? I read Dr. Woodson’s book - I did not see this discussion or distinction mentioned.

Please correct any (and all) of my mistatements - I not a doc or RN - but may make the difference for my family.

thanks!

Janet – at 15:11

Annonx2: Have you considered getting a pneumonia vaccine now so that this will not be as likely of a problem?

anonymous – at 15:22

A question to go with the Annonx2′s questions, what are broad spectrum antibiotics and which ones should we be stocking up with?

crfullmoon – at 15:30

Old thread: Which Medications should I stock?

Seek medical advice (if you can get it) -depends on what you might need, and, if you’re allergic to anything. (Are you up on your traveller’s shots?) Are you thinking pandemic, or other illness, or, infected-wound-need-for-antibiotics?

Back to News Reports…”which is already in progress”…

Blue Ridge Mountain Mom – at 15:46

Comment - I don’t recall seeing this story, so if it’s a repeat, I apologize.

Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Advance Warning of H5N1 Influenza Outbreaks May Be Found in Shrimp Virus Reservoirs

BOSTON, Oct 25, 2006 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ — Researchers at Replikins, Ltd.[1] have discovered that the shrimp viruses White Spot Syndrome virus (WSSV) and Taura Syndrome virus (TSV) - global lethal pathogens for shrimp - may be reservoirs for the peptide building blocks of H5N1, or bird flu virus…..

http://tinyurl.com/txfum

cottontop – at 15:54

I wished they would have explained how this could or would be of concern to us humans. Would eating shrimp make us sick? what’s the connection between poultry/humans/shrimp? Birds eat shrimp, do they get sick?

Blue Ridge Mountain Mom – at 16:09

cottontop - 15:54

Shrimp are bottom feeders, so they would be exposed to contaminated feces waste from infected chickens or any other animal that waters where they feed. Once again, the party line is if you cook your food properly, you will not become sick.

I found it interesting in the view that it seems to me that all viral activity ramps up right before a pandemic. We’re getting the reports of polio, dengue fever, rabies, meningitis, cholera, etc. outbreaks from all over the world. Someone said that following H5N1 was like watching a viral storm. To me, this story just reaffirms that everything is nature is interconnected in ways that we still don’t understand yet. The question that remains is how high of a price will we have to pay before we begin to understand?

Pixie – at 16:14

The U.S. imports quite a lot of tiger shrimp from Indonesia. Japan is the largest importer of Indonesian shrimp.

cottontop – at 16:20

Blue Ridge Mountain Mom-

I would hate to give up my shrimp! I’ve notice this same thing with the viruses. thought it was just me. “…how high of a price will we have to pay before we begin to understand?” I’m afraid the price will be very high. Humans do not learn lessons well or easily. As long as we place ourselves as reigning superiors over every other creature on earth, we’ll never get it. Humans are not intelligent creatures. We can’t even live in harmony each other, let alone the earth.

Tom DVM – at 16:22

Janet Annonx2 anonymous (please pick a name any name thanks)

Okay, by may moniker, you would know that I am a veterinarian. JV has done some excellent work on medications, which ones to take etc. If you go to the ‘Ask the Moderators’ thread, Pogge or DemFromCt or BroncoBill can direct you to the archived threads. They should answer all of your questions with respect to medications.

anonymous. There are two kinds of bacteria gram positive and gram negative. Some antibiotics like penicillin only work on gram positive bacteria. Broad spectrum antibiotics work on both types. The archived threads will tell you the best ones to pick…if not, when you see JV post on flu wiki..ask you question to him/her.

Janet. A vaccine against pneumonia is probably a good idea…however, it appears there too many localized and systemic reactions to pneumovax for my liking…this should not be happening and should be investigated. Without an appropriate investigation, I am not sure that I would be suggesting that anyone get it at this point in time.

Annonx2. I do not believe that the over prescription of antibiotics have caused the super-bugs we are seeing now.

I believe it is mistakes made in hospitals with antibioitic use and disenfectants…plus prescriptions that are not being taken properly and most importantly not finished (stopped after a few days) that have caused the resistance problem.

Antivirals can result in resistance in one week that took twenty-forty years with antibiotics…therefore I am not sure how much use they will be in a pandemic and it does not appear they will be avaliable to many people anyway…I have made the decision not to take them and have not ordered them even though I could.

When you suspect that you have pandemic influenza, I would start a broadspectrum antibiotic and continue taking it for seven to ten days…what this will in effect do…is to stop the secondary pneumonia before it starts.

The reason antibiotic treatments must stop, at that point, is because the natural bacterial flora in your gut etc. will be affected if you continue beyond this point.

Hope that helps. If it doesn’t maybe start a new thread, incorporate these posts and we can have a full discussion of the treatment issues.

Thanks

Ruth – at 16:51

So back to the shrimp, what I understand that article to say is that this company, analyzes the shrimp for a virus trend (DNA) whatever and if it increases in the shrimp then it could be a precursor for a pandemic?

crfullmoon – at 17:28

…”Using FluForecast® proprietary technology, Replikins, Ltd. researchers have identified a new group of virus peptides of specific structure, called “replikins”…

(Something about press-release-y things that get my “skeptical hackles” up…Are they looking for funding to make Replikins vaccines, ect? I guess I’d have to see what the reveres or Tom DVM thought that article was saying.)

johnO – at 17:32

Tom, maybe you could share your insight into the shrimp article. I’m afraid I don’t understand how the shrimp fit into the big picture of panflu.

Thanks.

diana – at 17:40

Just had a few coconut shrimp and butternut squash for lunch. At least the butternut squash and broccali is still safe.

Tom DVM – at 18:01

Hi everyone. I tried to read this article but couldn’t hang with it long enough to finish.

The bottom line here is that we know nothing about influenza. We know more then they did in 1918…like that in fact an influenza virus caused the pandemic..but we honestly don’t know any of the really important stuff…

…That doesn’t stop scientists from dancing on the head of a pin trying to impress everyone.

My colleagues at flu wiki have refined the science of influenza to a sharp edge. We pretty much know all the science there is to know…which like I said isn’t a lot.

This report is bunkum…snake oil…are Governments supposed to spend billions on shrimp research?

Oh well…the truth is that many diseases have been teased into submission without knowing very much about the genetics or physiology. We may not have all the direct answers but we are darn good at following the little terrorist (H5N1) through the briars, and the thickets and the meadows…and I think we have a hold of its tail right now.

cottontop – at 18:09

TomDVM

I agree completely. It made no sense to me. sounded like something that was thrown out there for the sake of reporting something.

Recently, I read an on-line article stating that scientists could not replicate the H5N1 virus in a petre dish, so therefore it wasn’t as bad as people are saying. I believe this was a Japanese scientist that made that statement. (I must start keeping tract of what I read.) If someone has heard of this article, please post it.

Tom DVM – at 18:18

cottontop. I wrote something a couple of years ago…the pandemic would not come until every scientist, regulatory and Government was convinced that it was not going to happen…sounds like we are about there.

In my opinion, and it is only my opinion, there are four factors to consider…

1) we are presently at the top end of the longest inter-pandemic period in history.

2) After a century, a ‘kissing cousin’ of H5N1 has emerged. It hung around long enough to explode out from Q. Lake and reach…CRITICAL MASS…and it has managed to increase its virulence during the same time period.

3) I have never heard of a virus, in the history of the world, that can infect as many animal species as this virus…and most importantly, it is hitting species that have not been infected before, ever…like cats.

4) There are viruses and bacteria of all types mutating to increase virulence and transissibility (West Nile, Dengue Fever) all over the world. The level of this is unprecedented.

Everyone else can make up their minds for themselves…but I am waiting because I believe that H5N1 is going to put all the needed mutations (two according to Dr’s Osterhaus and Webster) together at once and just explode…I have seen it before and I am absolutely convinced that I am about to see history repeated again…

…I just don’t know when.

cottontop – at 18:30

TomDVM-

How do you supose the H5N1 strain came about? And how would it find it’s way to it’s first victim, poultry? If this strain is a “kissing cousin” to the 1918 strain, where do you suppose it mutated? Wait-I don’t think I’m making myself clear.

The 1918 pandemic is over. There survives a portion, one strain, however you would like to call it, it goes dormant, in what, and where? Could it have stayed dormant all these years? Then something happens, triggers it to mutate, and surface now. where would it find it’s first host? were ever it was dormant? could it have been dormant in soil? Poultry is the first host that it has shown up in, to my knowledge. I hope you can somewhat understand this.

Ottawan – at 18:53

Vietnam’s success against avian flu may offer blueprint for others

Maryn McKenna Contributing Writer

Editor’s note: This is the first of a two-part Special Report on bird flu in Vietnam. Part two, “When avian flu control meets cultural resistance,” will be published Oct 26.

Oct 25, 2006 (CIDRAP News) – HANOI, Vietnam – Among countries affected by avian influenza H5N1, Vietnam stands out twice over.

It was one of the first hit by the virus in the current outbreak: It discovered its first human infections in December 2003 and its first widespread poultry outbreaks in January 2004. And it was one of the hardest hit, with 66 million birds culled to prevent spread of the virus, and more human infections than any other country to date.

But it has also controlled the virus more successfully than any other country where the disease became endemic, with no new human cases since last November and only a handful of infected birds this year—12 farm chickens and ducks, and a small flock of tame storks in an amusement park.

The shift is so striking that international health authorities are asking whether Vietnam’s success can be replicated elsewhere. But reproducing its efforts faces an unusual hurdle: sorting out which of its aggressive interventions actually made a difference.

“The absence of human cases is a direct reflection of the lack of cases on the animal side,” said Dr. Richard Brown, a World Health Organization epidemiologist based in Hanoi. “But it is actually difficult to know exactly what that is due to, because there were a number of different interventions applied in the latter half of 2005 on the animal health side.”

[snip]

http://tinyurl.com/yg2tc4

The day after tomorrow – at 19:37

Cotttontop-

I don’t think it’s that H5N1 has been here I believe the 1918 flu was H1N1. After the 1918 flu the virus stayed around and has mutated slightly over the years, most strains that we still come in contact with are decendants so to say of that viral strain be we all hae some immumity to it now.

This says it better than I can.

http://tinyurl.com/y4p8wq

It’s a link to CDC page on influenza viruses.

cottontop – at 20:21

The day after tomorrow-

Very informative. I now know why I keep getting what appears to be the same “crud”. thanks.

LR – at 20:29

Tom DVM, As a physician, I feel I must disagree with your advice of “When you suspect that you have pandemic influenza, I would start a broadspectrum antibiotic and continue taking it for seven to ten days…what this will in effect do…is to stop the secondary pneumonia before it starts.” Among my reasons: Allergic reactions are common with antibiotics and can be severe; Side effects are common - everything from rashes and stomach upset to liver and kidney damage; Other unwanted effects like yeast infections; Interfering with other medications you are taking; and the big one, infection with a bacteria that is now resistent to broadspectrum antibiotics, will be difficult to treat and will require very expensive antibiotics (likely, more than one)that you have no way of getting your hands on. Your odds have having a probolem with the antibiotic are far greater than the chance of preventing a secondary pneumonia. As an aside, they have been seeing primary viral pneumonias, not secondary pneumonia in H5N1 patients.

I realize that people are trying to prepare to deal with a pandemic without availability of medical care, but without tryng to sound self-important, there are good reasons for some medications being prescription and not over-the-counter.

BTW, anyone who is at higher risk for secondary pneumonia should have gotten the pneumovax.

I apologize now for disagreeing with a well-loved wiki guru!

Back to lurking…..

DennisCat 20:45

I am not an MD type nor do I play one on TV but:

instead of starting antibotics later and risking problems during a time when the health system is stressed think about getting your Pneumococcal (PPV) Vaccine. After all there are a lot of pneumonia bugs that are resistant to most antibotics anyway.

Monotreme – at 20:46

Canada

Pandemic to be ‘disaster in slow motion’

Canadians should brace for a pandemic within three months of an outbreak elsewhere in the world that could result in dire consequences for the country’s economy, business leaders heard Wednesday.

Companies could expect up to a third of their employees to be absent if a pandemic were to hit, Dr. Karen Grimsrud told a health emergency planning conference

[snip]

The cost to the country’s health-care system alone could reach $1.4 billion, she said, while a modest forecast for lost productivity could reach as high as $38 billion.

http://tinyurl.com/y3ujxb

JV – at 20:48

Janet, Annonx2, anonymous -

I went through a lot of discussion re antibiotics over a couple of threads starting with “Tom DVM Pet Med Question”: http://tinyurl.com/yycx5d

You would get more out of the discussion back and forth if you read those threads. I could post everything again, but it is really all there, but I do post over three continuous threads. I think if you read through those threads, you will have more information than you want!

Monotreme – at 20:49

DennisC – at 20:45

That’s good advice, IMO. [I’m not an MD either].

LR, would you agree?

Don’t be afraid to post, we won’t bite. We need input from everyone.

Monotreme – at 20:54

Arkansas, USA

Washington County emergency personnel plan for flu pandemic

Local emergency planners met Tuesday to discuss how Washington County will prepare for – and respond to – an influenza pandemic.

At a meeting of the Local Emergency Planning Committee, Rick Johnson of the County Health Department presented the county’s draft flu plan.

[snip]

The best thing for people to do if they haven’t already been exposed, will be to stay at home, Johnson said. One thing that people can do to prepare is stock their homes with supplies. The CDC recommends keeping two months’ worth of food and supplies in the home because that is how long a pandemic is expected to last.


Whoa. The CDC is telling people in Arkansas to stockpile for 2 months? Then how come New Yorkers are being told 3 days is enough? I need to get back to the Triage thread. Arkansas is going on the saveable list.

Monotreme – at 21:01

Indiana, USA

Agencies form plan for possible flu pandemic

If a flu pandemic strikes, sparsely populated Warren County might have few victims, but it more likely would be overrun by people fleeing urban areas.

“We have designated areas that we could activate — schools, churches, camps,” says Greg Robison, environmental health specialist with the Fountain-Warren Health Department. “If there’s a problem in Illinois, it will bleed over to our state.”

[snip]

State officials estimate nearly 6,000 Hoosiers could die if a new flu strain hit 35 percent of Indiana’s population. Nationally, 1.8 million Americans could die.

http://tinyurl.com/vzmz7


Whoa again. Some quick math shows that 2% of infected Americans would die of pandemic but only .3% of infected Hoosiers would die. A ten-fold reduction! That’s it, I’m moving to Indiana.

Monotreme – at 21:04

Indiana, USA

Officials discuss ways to combat flu pandemic

Officials from across Indiana on Tuesday participated in a tabletop exercise that simulated a statewide pandemic influenza outbreak.

“The purpose of a tabletop exercise is to evaluate plans and identify any issues that need to be addressed,” Indiana Department of Homeland Security Executive Director Eric Dietz said in a prepared statement. “The open discussion can also play a valuable role in developing and enhancing working relationships among agencies and individuals that will need to work together as a team during an actual response.”

The exercise was conducted at 11 Indiana National Guard facilities. Video-teleconferencing technology allowed officials from across the state to participate. The technology could prove valuable during a real pandemic because the outbreak likely would prompt limitations on large gatherings to stop the flu from spreading.

http://tinyurl.com/y5rg78

Klatu – at 21:11

LR – at 20:29 wrote:

“Tom DVM, As a physician, I feel I must disagree with your advice of… “When you suspect that you have pandemic influenza, I would start a broad spectrum antibiotic and continue taking it for seven to ten days…what this will in effect do…is to stop the secondary pneumonia before it starts.” Among my reasons: Allergic reactions are common with antibiotics and can be severe; Side effects are common - everything from rashes and stomach upset to liver and kidney damage; Other unwanted effects like yeast infections;….”


I have no disagreement in principle with prophylactic measures against secondary infections. There will be differences as to how this is approached. There are safe options. I have no problems with Cipro.

“Allergic reactions”, are not as common as suspected - in my humble opinion. I did a retrospective analysis on this 10-years ago. Maybe something new has come up since, that I’m unaware of.

All bets are off for when discussing - C.Difficile, biofilms, MRSA, along with H5N1.

Cheers.

cottontop – at 21:12

I’m so frustrated with New York’s prepardness plan. Just left their website, and honestly, they sounded as if they were preparing for, well, nothing. It all sounded cinderalla to me. Their confident their 11 hospitals will hold up to the onslught of millions of New Yorkers. How many are in new York city? It really scares me, not only for them, but for us (upstate), as well.

cactus – at 21:14
  So, if you are allergic not only to Cipro, but have been told to never take anything in that family of ATB, what would you suggest?

  Stevens Johnson syndrome is no fun.
JV – at 21:20

Tom DVM, and LR -

The time to start an antibiotic for pneumonia is when you have SYMPTOMS of pneumonia. If someone can’t get to a hospital for a diagnosis of viral versus bacterial pneiumonia, or what the heck is going on, the best symptom of bacterial pneumonia is coughing up sputum (pus), and almost always a temperature. Some people who are elderly or debilitated may not even cough up sputum or have a temperature (they can’t mount a response).

From what I have read, guidelines have been written so that if someone has suspected H5N1 influenza, AND has symptoms of a respiratory syndrome of influenza-like illiness (ILI) or community acquired pneumonia (CAP), empirical treatment is given for CAP (which is bacterial) according to standard regimens. Please look at the flow chart in the following frequently referenced article:http://tinyurl.com/h3fud, page 195 (page 7 on Internet).

I do not treat these patients with H5N1, obviously, but from what I have read, this is the standard. Please, if there is a doctor who is treating patients with H5N1 and feels that the situation had now changed, and they do not frequently get bacterial pneumonia, please post here with the review articles so we can all be better informed.

Anon_451 – at 21:20

LR – at 20:29 You are correct that Tom DVM is well respected and loved here, However he would be the first to say to you.

LR keep posting and as a physician we could sure use your experience and assistance in developing a sound plan for the members to use, because we know that medical help will be all but non existent during a pandemic and we are trying to save as many lives as we can.

Klatu – at 21:39

In quantum physics they refer to the certain open-minded hypothetical extrapolations/explorations as “thought experiments”.

Viral Tsunamis, might require some thinking-out-of-the-box, when the situation goes F.U.B.A.R.

When I lose focus, I go to the following page to sift the wheat from the chaff.

http://www.pandemicflu.gov/

Klatu – at 21:46

Interim Guidance on Planning for the Use of Surgical Masks and Respirators in Health Care Settings during an Influenza Pandemic

October 2006

http://www.pandemicflu.gov/

cottontop – at 22:13

Zimbabwe ostriches hit by suspected avian bird flu

www.gozimbabwe.com

southern africa? We need a thread for this somebody.

JV – at 22:16

cactus -

The family of antibiotics that cipro is in is fluoroquinolones. A list of them (?complete) is: Cinoxacin Ciprofloxacin Enoxacin Gatifloxacin Grepafloxacin Levofloxacin Lomefloxacin Moxifloxacin Nalidixic Acid Norfloxacin Ofloxacin Sparfloxacin Trovafloxacin

So, as long as that is all you are allergic to, you could take amoxicillin, augmentin, doxycycline, erythromycin.

A great place to look up things about antibiotics in general is the “Johns Hopkins Antibiotic Guiide:” http://tinyurl.com/vxkdx

Also, pharmacists usually are very happy to answer questions re medicines. If ever in doubt, just pick up the phone and ask a pharmacist!

JV – at 22:21

cactus -

Add azithromycin to the ones you could take.

cactus – at 22:24
  Thanks. Much appreciated
Tom DVM – at 22:25

Hi LR and JV and everyone.

LR. You’ve been outed now. Like JV, when you come out there is no going back…it’s a one way mirror!! /:0)

You just fell down the rabbit hole. We need your help and your opinion and you perspective…in the same way we need everyone’s.

This is a wonderful collaborative community…but you already know that.

Anon 451 has already said it for me. Flu wiki would not be interesting at all, if we all agreed on things…I’m glad you disagree with me. You’re wrong, but I’m glad you disagree with me anyway. /:0)

Pixie – at 22:26

cottontop - There are 8 million people resident in New York City (not counting the commuters) or 40% of the population of New York State. That’s 26,000 people per square mile.

cottontop – at 22:38

Pixie- bless your little heart. Thank you. 11 hospitals for 8 million people. Just don’t see it going as well as they think it will. Out of those 8 million, how many do you see leaving the city and heading instate, and spreading out? I think it’s safe to say, we will see an increase in people.

Pixie – at 22:53

cottontop - I think that there are around 75 hospitals in NYC, not that it will make much of a difference, cos the math kind of works out the same - it just doesn’t.

Tom DVM – at 22:55

“All bets are off for when discussing - C.Difficile, biofilms, MRSA, along with H5N1.”

Klatu. What are biofilms?

cottontop – at 23:00

Pixie-@ 22:53 Do you feel your state is even moderately prepared?

Monotreme – at 23:33

New Zealand

NZ Puts $2M Towards Pandemic Planning In Pacific

New Zealand is putting $2 million towards a project for influenza preparedness for the Pacific region.

The Prime Minister, Helen Clark, made the announcement in Fiji, where she is attending the Pacific Islands Forum.

[snip]

Miss Clark says other than Fiji no Pacific Island country has completed and tested a national influenza plan.

She says Samoa and Tahiti had mortality rates as high as 25 percent in the 1918 flu pandemic.

http://tinyurl.com/ymeals

Monotreme – at 23:40

cottontop and Pixie,

New Yorkers are being actively told *not* to prepare. The Health Commissioner for New York City has said that a flu pandemic is unlikely. You can watch him say it here. Other Fluwikians have pointed out that the Health Department is telling other agencies not to bother planning for a flu pandemic, it’s not going to happen.

I honestly think it would have been possible to prepare New York City for a severe pandemic. But it would’ve taken alot of planning and alot of money. I guess TPTB figured that New Yorkers aren’t worth the expense.

Pixie – at 23:41

cottontop - Is my state prepared for a pandemic? Well, I guess that depends on how one looks at things. We are counting on a Tamiflu stockpile that does not yet exist and a pandemic vaccine that does not yet exist. Evidently, some here find that reassuring somehow. Beyond that - no.

Monotreme – at 23:45

Oregon, USA

Health officials: Pandemic planning a priority

Many scientists and health officials believe a pandemic flu will sweep the globe in the next five years.

[snip]

The Health Department suggested administrators prepare to close schools early-on to prevent a widespread infection - but Klewitz said he feels closures should be done on a case-by-case basis.

“Typically, if a student has a fever the parents are called and the student goes home,” he said. “If we have to close school it’ll be because of an attendance issue or a staffing issue.”

http://tinyurl.com/y3prua

Pixie – at 23:45

Monotreme - I have a sneaking suspicion that the Health Commissioner of NYC may see this event as his long-awaited opportunity to buy prime Manhattan real estate at a deep discount. It will also be easier to get theatre tickets (and cheaper too - a show can now cost the equivalent of a flight to London). What the other possible motivations for this attitude are, I cannot even begin to imagine.

Monotreme – at 23:49

Pixie,

Yes, when he returns from his ranch in Wyoming or Colorado or Idaho, real estate in NYC should be real cheap.

26 October 2006

DennisCat 00:18

Study warns U.S. of avian influenza perils

Many Americans would have no one to care for them if they became ill during a bird flu pandemic, and a substantial number would suffer serious financial hardship, a Harvard University poll showed on Thursday….

According to Harvard’s poll, 24 percent of 1,697 Americans surveyed nationwide from Sept. 28 to Oct. 5 said no one could take care of them if they became sick’ and had to remain at home for seven to 10 days during a bird flu pandemic.

About 45 percent of those living alone said no one would be available to care for them, and 34 percent of black adults said they would have no one to take care of them if they became ill with pandemic flu…..

http://tinyurl.com/yxqr82

AnnieBat 00:38

I have just arrived home so I will get started on the News Summary shortly - just need to get essentials organised - like cats fed and coffee made ..

Once I have finished I will start a new thread, so give me about 30–40 minutes (lots of news to sort through)

Cheers and thanks

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.NewsReportsForOctober25
Page last modified on October 26, 2006, at 12:38 AM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Pump-N-Seal

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Pump-N-Seal

19 October 2006

Genoa – at 00:46

Just wanted to leave a message for Kim saying how much I appreciate her recommendation of the Pump-N-Seal. I recently put a lot of grains in 1/2 gallon canning jars and couldn’t believe how quickly and easily the Pump-N-Seal sealed all the jars. It will be no problem at all to open and take out what I want to use and reseal quickly. I am so pleased, as a Foodsaver just isn’t in the budget at this time. Actually, for my uses, the Pump-N-Seal is better. I’m more interested in sealing things in glass jars than in bags, plus the Pump-N-Seal will continue to work even when/if there is no electricity.

I would highly recommend this item to anyone who is interested in being able to seal their dry storage items in glass jars.

silversage – at 07:43

So, that’s where all the 1/2 gallon canning jars are! I like to pick up two boxes at a time at my ACE and they’ve been out of them a lot lately. :-) Where did you get your pump and seal? I’ve been thinking about getting one to seal wide mouth jars(for when the power goes out). Glad to hear it works so well.

Julianna – at 08:18

Just FYI - for those with a Foodsaver, it will seal glass canning jars (I tried this with marshmallows to be sure). There is an attachment made to do this, if you didn’t get one with the Foodsaver, I’m sure you could get one by itself.

However, the Pump-N-Seal would be a better option if electricity becomes a problem. I will have to find one!

InKyat 08:20

Thank you for posting this. I looked at the Pump-N-Seal just recently, after buying a food dehydrator, and am considering adding it to my next round of preps, since a Food Saver won’t work without electricity.

Kim – at 09:45

You can get the Pump-N-Seal here http://www.pump-n-seal.com/ or sometimes you’ll see them on ebay. They do work really well, is truly less hassle to use (and store!) than a FoodSaver, and the price is far below that of an electric vacuum sealer. It’s an easy, affordable solution for those doing food storage.

20 October 2006

Genoa – at 00:22

Oh good, Kim, I’m glad you saw this post, because it was entirely due to your recommendation that I got the Pump-N-Seal. Another thing I like about using it is the tab of tape that you put over the little whole punched in the lid---it makes it so easy to open the jar. I read somewhere that, if you run out of the tapes provided with the Pump-N-Seal you can use electric tape. I seem to have plenty of the tapes, but it’s nice to know there’s something taht will substitute if need be.

Silversage---I’m sure your right, I’ve cornered the market on 1/2 gallon canning jars, between my old stock and new. Of course, I’ve also been grabbing up the quarts and pints, too, so if you have any trouble finding those you’ll know whom to blame. :) That is, only if they are Ball (had trouble with Kerr jars and lids a lot of years ago and have not bought any since) and wide mouthed.

Kim – at 09:08

Genoa, thanks for the tip on possibly using electrical tape to seal a jar with the Pump-N-Seal. I’d never heard of that, I’m gonna have to try that out and see if it works!

Medical Maven – at 10:12

Kim, I am sure some of my 5 gal. plastic buckets filled with rice, grain, and beans have an airtight seal on the rim. Could one drill a small hole in the lid of the bucket and vacuum-seal THAT VOLUME of space with the Pump-N-Seal?

Also, if one later wanted to restore the integrity of the lid, one could use an item like “boot jel” to seal the small hole. Wal Mart carries the jel in their shoe department. That jel is a great “fix-it” item in its own right. I have used it for years for various purposes.

LauraBat 10:20

This item looks great, but how exactly does it work? You just punch a small hole then use the sealer? And can you do ANY jars, or just mason jars?

Thanks!

Genoa – at 13:26

Laura, I looked up some information before buying the Pump-N-Seal, as I was very resistant to the idea of putting wholes in the lids---it just didn’t make sense to me. There were some lengthy explanations, and I don’t pretend to understand all the details; but, basically, using the tape provided with the Pump-N-Seal, it creates a one-way valve which allows the air to be pulled out but not seep back in. I haven’t been using mine long, but I can tell that the lids are obviously sealed when I finish. Also, when I opened one yesterday by pulling up the tape, there was definitely evidence that the seal had been broken. It sounded just like when I open a jar of home-canned food. I was also easily able to reseal the jar after removing the portion I needed.

I have only used my canning jars. If you save other jars from food products you can also use them, and I am saving some for future use. However, what I’ve been putting in jars so far has been better suited to the large 1/2-gallon or full 1-quart jars. It is my understanding that only jars with lids containing a rubber-type gasket can be sealed, as the gasket forms the seal with the jar rim. I’m sure Kim or someone else more knowledgeable will correct me if I’m wrong about this.

Genoa – at 13:28

Oops---meant “holes” not “wholes” in lids.

LizBat 17:01

I bought pump-n-seal, used it on all sorts of jars - peanut butter jars etc - as well as mason jars. Lots of fun, cheap, seems to work just fine. Great to have in case of power outage if you’ll might want to open and reseal a container, or open a large container and transfer parts to smaller containers to reseal.

Then I bought foodsaver, and was happily sealing bags of dried peas etc until I started noticing the cost of all those bags, even in rolls they aren’t cheap. Duh, so that’s why y’all are buying all those mason jars! I kept assuming when people talked about mason jars they were canning; no, jars (of any kind with a good top) are reusable for vacuum packing, long term much cheaper than foodsaver bags.

Has anyone vacuum packed meat into jars for freezing? I can’t see any financial advantage of buying meat in larger quantities if you’re going to vacuum pack it into expensice bags.

LauraBat 17:11

LizB - I have the Food Saver and use it all the time for meats. The cost savings if you can buy meat in bulk at places like Costco - eg. boneless, skinless chikcen breast at Costco is like $279/lb vs $5.99/lb at my local grocer. Yes the bags cost but I thinkI’m making up for it with the savings - normally I would have had to put that all in say ziplock bags, freeze it and hope freezer burn doesn’t get to it. Im’m pulling meat out that is ages old and it’s pperfect, and a million times better than freezing in the package from teh grocery store!

The main reason I’m interested in this option is for storing dry items + haivng items on hand to give to people in need - on top of not needing electricity. It’s just that it sounds a little “too good to be true.”

Genoa – at 19:29

Laura, I don’t have a Foodsaver, but I do know that it’s possible to buy an attachment for many of the Foodsavers which will allow you to seal a canning jar. I believe they have attachments for both regular mouth jars and wide mouth jars.

One thing about the Pump-N-Seal that I like is how easy it is to open the jar after sealing it (just lift up the tape slightly and you’ll hear a “whoosh” as the vacuum is released) and also to reseal the jar. I only have to pull out a small pump from the drawer, press the tape back down, and reseal. I have no personal experience with this, but I have read that some who use the Foodsaver for sealing jars occasionally find it difficult to open a jar after it’s been sealed without bending the lid enough to make it difficult to reseal (again, just what I’ve read---don’t know how often this actually happens).

Finally, there’s the obvious advantage of it being non-electric. It will supposedly seal bags, also, but I probably won’t try that---it involves what sounds to me like a rather messy procedure of coating the top of the bag with oil to facilitate the sealing. Plus I really prefer using reusable storage containers, when possible.

I will add that I have not been using the Pump-N-Seal for long. I will defer to others, such as Kim, who have had more experience with it to confirm or correct what I’ve written.

Medical Maven – at 19:59

Genoa-I use a wine pump and a valved rubber cork for my opened bottles of wine. I feel resistance to the pumping action as the vacuum is created. Is it similar with the Pump-N-Seal, (the feeling of resistance), as you reach that desired vacuum state?

Kim – at 20:11

Medical Maven, while I don’t know for sure the answer to your question about using a Pump-N-Seal on 5 gallon buckets, I would say that the answer would be yes. The hole required is small (think a hole the size that a thumbtack would make). I’ve used the Pump-N-Seal successfully on 1/2 gallon jars… the more air that you need to suck out the longer you’ll have to pump, but as long as the pail is airtight and has a good rubber seal inside the lid, I think it’s perfectly doable. Pack your rice, grain or beans in, shake it to settle the contents, then keep adding more and shaking til you’ve really got it as jam-packed as possible.

I do know one thing, when packing powders (like milk, coffee, etc) you need to put something on top of the powder so it’s not drawn up into the hole and interferes with the ability of the tab to seal tight against the lid. A coffee filter, paper towel, something along those lines will work.

Genoa is right, ANY jar with a rubber gasket in the metal lid will work. Most such jars have the soft metal “button” in the center of the lid that sucks down when a vacuum is achieved and pops out when the vacuum is broken. Stuff with plastic lids is NOT going to work, they just don’t seal down tightly enough to hold a good seal.

I have dehydrated stuff in jars that were packed 5 years ago, they still have a perfect seal and you’ll still hear the satifying “pop” when you release the tab to break the vacuum. I can reliably pick these jars up just by the lids (canning jars with canning lids only, no rings) and have the lid stay fast, in fact you can only get one of those lids off by either releasing the tab or by prying the lid off with an opener (and either way, you’ll hear that pop as the vacuum is released). I trust the seal from a Pump-N-Seal MUCH more than the seal from a FoodSaver attachment… I’ve had too many of the Foodsaver “seals” loose all their vacuum within a few weeks.

I do use my FoodSaver for packing meats and frozen veggies, although the bags are expensive. You just have to figure in the cost of the bags when you purchase these foods to see if it’s still a bargain. I also quit trusting the seal of my FoodSaver for the frozen stuff, too much of it was losing it’s seal while in the freezer. Since I also have an Impact heat sealer that I use in my business, I now immediately do a double seal with it after using the FoodSaver (it’s a PITA, but worth the peace of mind). Maybe I just have a crap unit, I don’t know, but I know I can’t trust it. I have NEVER had a jar sealed with a Pump-N-Seal loose it’s vacuum.

Medical Maven – at 20:19

Kim, that was a great summary. It told me everything I needed to know. Next week I will order one. For the cost it really is a no-brainer.

21 October 2006

Kim – at 08:55

I know it’s hard for folks to believe that something so small, simple and inexpensive could perform so well, but it really does. It is easy enough that even a kid could use one successfully. I too thought that because it was so simple that it must just be a gimmick, but it has worked faithfully for me, every time, with no hassles. One of the best features is that it requires no electricity… if the power goes, then my FoodSaver is just (another) paperweight taking up space.

I’m a firm believer in doing things the easy way whenever possible, and the Pump-N-Seal is SO suited to that way of thinking. Pump-N-Seal weighs a few ounces and fits in a kitchen drawer, versus the FoodSaver which weighs a few pounds and is stored on a bottom shelf, along with the jar sealer attachments for it. The Pump-n-Seal is just E-A-S-Y, whereas with the Foodsaver you feel like you’re undertaking a real construction project whenever you use it (or at least I do).

If I had to give up one or the other, the FoodSaver would be kicked to the curb before I’d ever give up the Pump-N-Seal.

LizBat 14:32

I bought pump-n-seal on the theory it’s probably junk but other people seem to like it and it’s cheap enough I can afford the risk.

It works! It’s easy!

Rarely, I don’t place the tape right, but you can tell right away - the vacuum either gives up within barely minutes or it holds just fine.

You aren’t really taping the hole shut in the usual sense. The tape is held in place over the hole by the vacuum. So any air-blocking covering will do. Their tape has glue on the sides (to help you place it and avoid knocking it out of position) but no glue over the hole itself - when you pump, air is pulled out through the hole below the tape, then the initial vacuum pulls the tape down over the hole; pump again to remove more air and create a stronger vacuum pulls more air out because the hole isn’t glued shut, just blocked by non-sticky part of the tape.

Brilliant. Why didn’t we think of it? :)

I’m skeptical about their claim of sealing baggies with it. Has anyone tried that?

Kim – at 21:01

Yes, the tabs seem to have a very thin piece of foam or similar material in the middle that fits over the hole (like a tiny little bandaid). I haven’t yet tried using electrical tape instead of the special tab, I’m interested to see if that works. You can also tell visually if you have a seal or not because you’ll actually be able to see the tab sucked down slightly into the hole… it’s a small hole, but you’ll be able to see it’s distinct little outline in the tab.

Kim – at 21:17

I’ve tried sealing baggies with it without much success. I don’t know if this is because I’m a klutz, because I simply lack the patience to really fool with it, or because it really doesn’t work well on baggies. I have heard of people who HAVE used it successfully for that purpose. I don’t think that most baggies are really airtight anyway, except maybe for some of the high-quality freezer bags, so I just don’t fool with that aspect of it. If you’re interested in sealing up baggies though I’m sure it would at least be worth a try, nothing ventured nothing gained. I’m perfectly happy with just sealing up jars with mine.

22 October 2006

Medical Maven – at 15:22

I am freezing my dried fruits-tart cherries, raisins, apricots, cranraisins, and currants. If and when the Grid goes down, I plan on placing them in mason jars (I have many) and using Ball rings and lids and the Pump-N-Seal. Now with any of these named dried fruits do I need to worry about anerobic microbes setting up botulism?

cactus – at 16:35
  Why are you freezing your dried fruits?  Aren`t fine just in jars or bags? I put my dried stuff in Mason jars, should I be doing something more?
Medical Maven – at 18:10

cactus-I read the “best by” dates on what I buy, and I figure that I certainly would extend the “best by” date by also freezing the dried fruits. And then when they become “not frozen” the “clock” would start ticking again towards that ‘best by” length of maximum nutrition.

And I also thought I could then lengthen that time of “best nutrition” further by removing air, but I don’t know if I am setting myself up for botulism by doing that.

Dennis in Colorado – at 18:36

Medical Maven – at 18:10
I can’t see that you would be increasing the chances of botulism with your plan. Some selected quotes from the Wikipedia article on Clostridium botulinum (the bacteria which productes botulin, which causes botulism):

“These rod-shaped organisms grow best in low-oxygen conditions. They form spores that allow them to survive in a dormant state until exposed to conditions that can support their growth.”
“In the United States, outbreaks are primarily due to types A or B, which are found in soil, or type E, which is found in fish. Optimum temperature for types A and B is 35–40° C (95–104° F). Minimum pH is 4.6. It takes 25 min at 100°C (212° F) to kill these types.”
“Clostridium botulinum is a soil bacterium. It affects foods that are of neutral pH.”

I guess the key piece of information is the pH of your dried fruit. If it is low (if the dried fruit is acid) then botulism seems unlikely. It would also seem prudent to use fruit that was picked from the tree (not grounders) and fruit that was cleaned before drying.

Medical Maven – at 19:55

Dennis in Colorado at 18:36-I also did some googling. You are on the money with your information. And I will add that my supposition is correct that freezing dried fruit would further extend its nutritional life and overall usability. And by freezing dried fruits for 48 hours or more you would also destroy any insect eggs that might cause problems down the line.

I also found a USDA table on the pH of various foods, and all dried fruits on that table were more acid than a pH of 4.6 and generally in the 3 range. (Bananas were not given a pH for dried, but “fresh” were in a range of 4.5 to 5.20. But I did notice that all fruits that had both fresh and dried categories increased in acidity when dried, generally significantly.

The other significant bit of information was that drying greatly reduced the chances for the development of botulism. So with dried fruits in general you have two big factors working against botulism-their low pH and the act of drying them in the manner which is prescribed by the experts.

Also it was noted that each time that one exposes a jar of dried fruit to air that it will be taken down a notch nutritionally, and that is why single portion containers are recommmended.

Six to twelve months shelf life for dried fruits was the standard in all of my sources.

So, (buyer beware), I have come to the conclusion that I can project my stash of dried fruit far into the future by freezing it until the Grid goes down, and then create a vacuum for it in a mason jar AFTER it has reached room temperature AND further dried during that time it takes to reach room temperature.

seazar – at 20:21

i ordered my pump ‘n seal tonight! thanks for all the great information!!

23 October 2006

LizBat 00:07

Tonight I decided there’s an advantage to using mason jars instead of peanut butter or other jars for vacuum packing. On a mason jar, it’s easy to tell if the seal has broken - the lid falls off. On a peanut butter jar, there’s no easy way to tell. The lid dents in a bit when vacuum packed, but the ones that have been sitting on a shelf for a year that I opened tonight, the lid stayed that way, and the tape over the hole stayed dimpled even after the lid was off the jar.

If I had used mason jars, I’d have had the extra assurance that yes, the vacuum held, by the lid being still firmly held down by the vacuum.

25 October 2006

KimTat 19:54

I ordered my pump-n-seal on the 22nd and got it today, I am way impressed with the service of this company. Haven’t used it yet but still happy! I love getting boxes in the mail.

Genoa – at 22:59

KimT --- So glad you’re happy so far. Mine arrived very quickly, also. I think you’ll be even happier once you have an opportunity to try it out. (I know I was.)

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.Pump-N-Seal
Page last modified on October 25, 2006, at 10:59 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Natural Immunity

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Natural Immunity

22 October 2006

clark – at 19:18

I live in a University town in New Zealand- We have students here from all over the world-USA, thailand- china - the middle east etc. We have just finished our flu season- so I have been repeatedly coughed on. I have walked through gallons of spit on the sidewalks- and tracked it into my house. My kids are at school so any flu I haven’t been able to roll in, they will have brought to me. I never got sick. Would I have had my immune system primed by this???

Would that be the same as having a flu shot?? I was thinking of getting flumist for the boys- heard it could help. But how is getting flumist different than being exposed to the real, live unattenutated flu viri?

I read that being exposed to the H1N1 componant of the vax could prep the body somewhat for H5N1?

Northstar – at 23:50

clark, I have read one can build up a “library” of flu responses from the different bits of flu one encounters; that’s why I get a flu shot every year so I have at least bits-and-pieces covered. I think it works — a couple times I’ve had what I call “ghost flu” where I get the body aches and fever and that awful flu feeling, and then my immune system kicks in and I’m only sick for a day or two.

I believe if H5N1 reassorts with a common flu, we might have a bit of immunity to the common part. Perhaps one of the finer minds here can jump in with the science that can yay or nay the idea. (s)

Good to see you around, clark! Hope all is well with you and yours.

23 October 2006

clark – at 00:24

Hi Northstar I just had to have a break for awhile. It was all tooooo weird and tooo real for me for awhile.

WE are doing fine. My oldest bought his first car, my youngest has started playing touch rugby. It is spring time here- Things are great with all of the ordinary fear, deceit, drama and joy of regular life.

I have been following things on the wiki- have enjoyed your posts about dreams- this whole thing seems like a dream. You are always one of my favorite posters.

That stuff about “if H5N1 reassorts with a common flu, we might have a bit of immunity to the common part”, is what I read too. I have never worried about the boys getting sick- just dying or being maimed. Has anyone had any experience of FluMist?

It is so odd. My kids have not been immunized for anything.

Northstar – at 19:24

What a nice thing to say! You’ve made my day.

The downside to the reassortment idea is if H5N1 *doesn’t* reassort and comes by its infectivity through point-by-point mutations, it remains a wholly alien avian virus that we have no natural immunity to. I believe that was the case with the 1918 pandemic. It has occured to me the best thing that could happen would be to have a mild, reassorted virus make the rounds before the big one takes off. A mild version of the 1918 virus apparently circled the globe the year before the more virulent version; possibly 1/3 of the population then had a natural immunity to 1918. I hope we are so lucky this time.

It sounds good that you took time to reconnect with family. This is a heavy burden to bear. I’ve made my “peace with the beast” as someone so eloquently put it; I still prep, but at a slower pace, and I almost can’t make myself worry over it.

I haven’t taken Flumist myself, but it’s supposedly no worse than a nasal spray. It is a live virus IIRC, so the immune response to it is stronger.

After my middle child had a horrible reaction as an infant to the Hep B vaccine, I didn’t have her or #3 vaccinated at all. But now, I’ve started them both on the series again; there’s a chance they could see a world where polio and measles are commonplace again. That’s something I don’t want to worry about for them.

24 October 2006

clark – at 05:51

Northstar- It was the thought of immunizing our tiny little babies that stopped us. Now that they are big, I am not so concerned. I have never been afraid of most diseases- traveled through India in the early 70s- never worried about getting sick. My Dad told me to just stay healthy and I would be fine (eat well and don’t be stupid).

The threat of H5N1 has changed my life. It is like that Joseph Conrad book “The Journey to the heart of Darkness”. I feel alot more light hearted than before. The bird flu is now part of my everyday day.

The threads with TomDVM talking about prednisolone- and the “ make your own vaccine” thread (Northstar!) are two high points for me. Getting dragged into new worlds- and changing my mind about many things. I guess I have been scared younger (I hope) by fluwiki. Oh yes, I read the Plague Years by Defoe because you posted a few pages of it.

My father inagined that he was immortal (would never die) right up to his death. He was 80 and had lots of prewarning to his demise (it was not sudden) If he had allowed himself to realize that his days were numbered, he would have said and done things differently).

There have been blessings for me, from this. Every moment is precious.

LauraBat 06:30

Since there are so many different strains of flu floatng around very year, it’s tough to say that you have immunity to the ones in your area or simply avoided getting it because you weren’t sufficiently exposed. I have three kids and some years we do well and hardly get sick, others we are all hammered with it, often multiple times. The only time I was previously vaccinated was when I was pregnant. And until recently, you could only get babies vax’d, not older children. There’s no telling if vaccinating will help with regular flu or AF. But I figure there is little risk (we have no history of bad vax reactions) and there is only upside. If it means one less round of illness in our house this winter then it’s worth it. Chances are someone will get something! I was able to get vax’d, but so far my ped hasn’t received his supplies yet! A friend who is a pediatrician told me that the mist is better than the shot because it protects against more strains than the shot - the shot usually only covers the three strains scientists THINK will erupt during the year. In the US a lot of insurance companies won’t cover it through because it’s more expensive. Don’t get me strated on the logic of that one…

Malachi – at 12:11

I’m glad to read this thread,Like northstar and clark above,I had not immunized my kids(13,12,8 and 8) until one day last spring when I felt the sky was falling and then I went on to read an article that stated childhood vaccines would become scarce if the world was working mostly on flu vacs.I never gave disease a second thought when my kids were young.We ate healthy food and exercised,Lived a healthy life.But when I really started educating myself about panflu and what could happen afterwards,I drove right to the school picked up my 4 kids and took them to the health dept for their shots.I questioned myself before we got them,and I question myself now after getting them.It is tearing me up about getting flu vacs now,even tho I got them the pnuemovax.We won’t be able to sip forever and from many threads lately,it may not matter.I guess 36 years of carefree life was a good run.

clark – at 16:35

Hi Malachi

I am glad we didn’t immunize til now- both boys have been really healthy- and are rarely off school with sickness. I have always wanted what was best for the boys rather than supporting some anti-vax or pro-vax dogma. You weigh up the information for/against and take your chances. And live with the good/bad results.

The H5N1 has rocked my world and I am starting to think like you and Northstar. I can imagine the future world will be different from this world and I need to be different accordingly. A current set of vax could be a lifesaver. Which ones?????

Malachi and Northstar, what vax did you decide to give to your kids and why? Have they been OK? Have you got any regrets?

LauraB- I think I will try and get flumist- my kids hate needles- and they are getting too big to just put in the car and take to the doc, no questions asked. There is no forcing them to do things. I have to explain, argue and ultimately, bribe.

25 October 2006

Malachi – at 09:53

Clark…I got the standard recommended ones here in the usa…..Dpt (diptheria tetnus pertussis)When I did it there was a outbreak of whooping cough(pertussis I think) at my older sons school which we did not get.It did weigh on the decision to get them tho,It spooked me that in this day and age we still have a problem with that and come to find out alot of people got that even tho they had had the jab.

Polio

MMR

Hep B

Pneumovax

We still need to go in and finish out our last ones but I was trying to hold out until the flu vax is available.Even tho I am still leary about getting it.

I knew a girl who got the shots on the regular schedule and when her baby was 2 she got more and then came down with autismn.It scared the crap out of me and so decided then I wouldn’t get them for my babies.Maybe I was also suffering from the “Hey we are healthy,nothing can hurt us”issues.Also I have been known to buck the system a bit,I do things that are right for me and screw what anyone else thinks.Believe me I went thru heck with the schools and doctors.To this day we don’t really even have a doctor who is “our doctor” because they didn’t think I was doing right for the kids and let me know that in less than nice ways.One called protective services on me citing that it was child abuse not to vaccinate.

The kids have been fine since they had them.We are still healthy,eat right and exercise too.Shoot those little troopers didn’t evem cry.It was actually quite surprising how easy it went.The first round.Second round was a bit tougher to get them to go and I am trying to figure out the right bribes to have ready for our last round.

 I don’t regret getting the shots,but I do regret that my glasses are clear now instead of rose colored.It isn’t nearly as pretty.
cactus – at 10:10

Malachi – at 09:53

 New studies are showing that autism  starts in utero,very early, like first 6 weeks. Moms are exposed or ungest something that leads to it.
Northstar – at 22:56

clark, any regrets about the vaxxing? I do regret I didn’t get the Hib (meningitis) vaccine for my little one when she was an infant… that could have had serious, fatal consequences if she’d become ill, and completely avoidable. I confused it with the HepB vax (Hepatitis B) which gave my infant #2 fevers/liver problems for 2 months. It was very scary, and when I found out it was to protect from a sexually transmitted disease, I felt like such a fool for allowing my tiny infant to have it. The government wants to make sure everyone gets the Hep B and getting them in the hospital at birth is the most convenient way for them to do that. BTW, the Hib doesn’t protect against the meningitis that is a problem later in life, so there’s no point in getting it past 2 years old. (My ped told me.)

My poor little 7 and 2 year olds each got: _MMR_ (Measles, mumps, rubella — Measles has broken out over here. One infected person on one plane spread it to about a dozen states. Goes to show.)MMR is the one most often fingered by parents as when their child started demonstrating autistic tendancies, though an association is not supported by research. I find it pretty compelling when people tell how their child changed from one day to the next, though. _DtaP_ Diptheria, Tetanus, Peratussis — all ugly illnesses, and preventable. _Varicella_ - chickenpox. Now even my pediatrician is not vaxing her kids against this, preferring a stronger natural immunity, but I was 13 when I got it and vividly remember the misery. This one was a hands-down no-brainer for me. _Polio_ This is an ugly, ugly disease that could bounce back in no time. If it’s that kind of world, I don’t want my kid going that way. I almost feel like it’s a last chance for a vaxx- maybe.

The older one had a large amount of swelling/redness/soreness at the injection site for several days, sucessfully treated with hot compresses & OTC pain meds.

I haven’t found a source for a kid’s flu shot yet, but they’ll get one (at least the ones that can — one’s allergic, which scares me) and my doctor was thrilled out of her gourd when I hesitantly suggested getting them vaxxed against pneumonia. She literally jumped out of her chair with excitement (which surprised and puzzled me. I thought she might object.) It gave me the feeling she knew something I didn’t. I’ve never discussed BF with her.

It’s funny you mention that dreamlike feeling. I have such a feeling of unreality, too, it’s like walking through water. I used to be so worried about BF, but now I’m more happy-go-lucky than ever. I’m intensly enjoying my time with my kids and am much more patient with them. There’s always that thought, what if it — this world we all know — should all go away? What would the most important to me then? Of course the kids, first, foremost and always. And to lose them? The thought lurks in the darkness in back of my mind, always.

Yet, the worse the news, the closer PF seems to get, the less I worry. I am reminded of a state of mind I was once in when, while driving on the freeway, a flatbed truck lost a pallet of bricks right in front of me. Suddenly I am flying through a cloud of bouncing bricks at 70mph. “Ha ha!” I thought. “These can’t be real, they must be styrofoam to bounce like that! Maybe it’s a movie!” And time seemed to slow down; I was so focused and concentrated and almost joyful as I expertly slalomed between the bouncing bricks. I could see where each one was going, and because time had slowed, was able to veer around its trajectory. I remember them bouncing right over my windshield. I remember my screaming tires. Everything is very vivid, crystal clear, even now. The mind is an amazing thing. I thought I’d never have an transcendent experience like that again, but in a way that’s kind of how I feel now, at a real low level.

Ah, well, sorry for blathering on. It’s late, and I’m waiting for my canner to finish. (s) Take care, clark.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Eton FR 400 Emergency Weather Radio

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Eton FR 400 Emergency Weather Radio

24 October 2006

Prepping Gal – at 21:53

I got this radio from Radio Shack last week. It has AM/FM, TV and 7 weather channels along with the “alert” function so if any emergencies, weather alerts or other alerts are activated it turns the radio on to explain the warning etc.

On Sunday evening and this evening the alert has gone off (scared me out of my chair the first time). I know they test the system on Wednesdays’ at noon. But when I listen it says there are no warnings. I can’t find any explanation on the emergency websites in Canada (my location) or the USA (NOAA). Can someone tell me why this is happening? Is this common and how can I avoid false alarms?

Sailor – at 22:21

Prepping Gal – at 21:53

Hi there, Yes it happens on a regular basis and is necessary to prove that there system is working and also is proof to you that your radio is working. As long as your radio is set to alarm you can not avoid these tests. Its a bit anoying but you get used to it and they only test the system once a week. Did you get the AC power supply module that you plug in to the wall so you can have the radio on all the time with out running the battery’s down?

Sailor – at 22:24

Prepping Gal – at 21:53

Sorry I just reread your post. When the alert comes on you have to listen all the way through the whole anouncement as the alert item will be at the end of the anouncement.

25 October 2006

preppiechick – at 00:24

Does anyone now why the alerts wouldn’t work? I bought a similar model, after 911, and now the alerts don’t work. I tried to reset the codes and I called the company, but they weren’t much help. Everything else works fine, but the reason that I bought it was for the alerts. Thanks!

Bird Guano – at 00:50

You need to program in the S.A.M.E. codes for both your geographic location, and the types of emergencies you want to be alerted to. ie: tornado watch, tornado warning, chemical release, etc.

I picked up a similar model and programmed it for my kid’s school office, but I only programmed MAJOR events to alert on, and the weekly and montly test don’t trigger the siren, only the flashing light.

It’s all in how you program it.

Also check to make sure you have STRONG reception of the NOAA signal. If you don’t then the digital won’t be decoded.

preppiechick – at 01:13

Thanks bg. I did program, originally, then reprogrammed after it wouldn’t work. It had worked great for almost 5 years, now just doesn’t get the alerts. I’ll try moving it -maybe there is some new interfernce, who knows…I’m always fixing electronic things! haha (can americans PLEASE go back to making things!!!)

Prepping Gal – at 19:41

In addition to my Eton FR 400 I was at a discount store and there in an odd place was a pair of Audiovox 2 way emergency-radios-I’ve never seen this type of item in this store & the price was right. It has lots of bells & whistles including the alert system. I kind of chuckled seeing the other women buying discounted brand name clothes and here I am buying what must have appeared to them as a “toy”. Now I hope that these don’t have false alarms as well. Mine don’t thave SAME technology; I don’t want to spend the extra.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Significance

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Significance

25 October 2006

Blue – at 05:42

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2006-10/25/content_5245020.htm

 The story above, about the possibility of vectors in North America, would I thought of raised a lot more concern than I am seeing.

 Is there a reason for this?

 I don’t think the warning signs for individuals to prepare en masse will get much clearer.
crfullmoon – at 07:08

There’s been “low” path H5N1 found in N.America before. Even though that can mutate into high path, my concern’s been high; I’ve been trying to prepare, for a long while already, and there are so many continents H5N1 can’t really be monitored on, and so many mammals and birds, and people getting it, that I think it will go pandemic and come in on a few planes of human travellers.

Blue, just getting the news out to the public that the WHO and other places started warning about a bad pandemic influenza pandemic (disruption, deaths) a year ago, and they are a year behind, get started, would be an improvement, at this point.

If the public understood they will be on their own if it happens next month; no vaccines, no meds around here for them and their families. (Despite all the drills mentioning handing these out -we don’t have ‘em.) Every other place in the same crisis, so, no outsiders coming to feed or rescue them… Some people won’t believe until people here die from it, but more community preparation should be taking place with what we know already; we can’t stop it is if goes pandemic, and it may stay deadly. Most people aren’t prepared for the shorter emergencies they should be anyway; preparation won’t hurt them.

You’re having Spring down there, Blue? Get out and enjoy it for me.

Blue – at 07:54
 Yeh, will do-I went down the mall today…that’s what we do in Perth. Or the beach_ Beach tomorrow!

 Say, did you read the article? I should’ve put «!Achtung!» on top of it like I did in the other threads.

 (Haven’t been here for a while and apparently it was posted up a coupla’days ago.)
crfullmoon – at 15:22

So, maybe they’re swabbing the wrong ends ;-) But also they need to be testing mammals, I’d think, too.

Blue, I am not as worried about sick birds at this late date as I am some of the human cases in Asia (or, who even knows what’s going on in Africa? Can’t test enough birds, mammals, nor people there, either) hitting the viral jackpot for H5N1 and a transmissible form reaching the airports and transfer flights(and not being noticed until all those contacts have gone back to work and schools…)

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Meeting Tonight

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Meeting Tonight

24 October 2006

Birdie Kate – at 13:32

Our community forum is tonight and here are my questions I will be asking - depending on what questions they answer beforehand. I might just stick to the planning questions and not ask the questions about the committee.

1.Is this forum to allow community development of the regional plan as stated in the state Memorandum of Understanding? And will there be another town wide forum to educate the community of the contents of the plan.

2.Some experts are recommending individuals have 6 – 8 weeks worth of food, over the counter medicines, etc. when are your recommendations and when do you plan on having a broad based public awareness campaign to reach every resident of our town? Does your plan include distribution of fact sheets regarding social distancing, sheltering in place, isolation and quarantine, etc. and who will be in charge of developing these plans and the timely distribution to every member of the town?

3.Are there plans in place to set up hotlines for information and is our town planning on creating an informational website to address concerns of the towns residents?

4.How many licensed volunteers have volunteered to take care of residents who cannot take care of themselves? Have you done any recruiting of the 400+ licensed professionals we have on town?

5.Mike Leavitt, Sec of Health & human Services said at his May summit no pandemic will respect borders. You must prepare for an influx of individuals from border towns. There are currently 3000 plus gang members in surrounding towns. How do you plan on dealing with problems associated with the increase in crime and citizens?

6.Do you have an operational plan to implement various levels of movement restrictions within, to and from town? When will the public be informed of these restrictions?

7.What plans are in place to provide life saving maintenance medications to residents in town who are sheltering in place or quarantines?

8.Realistically speaking, bordering town has over 86,000 people; the hospitals in XXXX will not be able to take citizens from XXX as they will be overwhelmed. What plans are in place for XXX to care for its influenza patients and also for regular medical emergencies?

9.Experts agree there will be no vaccine available for at least 6 months and even then there will not be enough. Why is XXXX so focused on being a POD at this stage in the planning?

10.What plans are in place for mass fatality management including funerals, burials, and deaths at home? Do you have alternative sites for mass fatality besides XXXX Funeral Home?

11.It is estimated that there will be a 40% or more absenteeism rate among workers. What plans are in place if XXXX were to lose utilities due to the pandemic? Is XXXX ready to supply some type of shelter that would include heat and electricity? What about waste management?

12.The current strain of H5N1 has hit children the hardest, who will decide when to close the schools? School contingency plans for web based learning, ptv learning, etc?

13.The Memorandum of Understanding that all towns signed states that local communities are responsible under their own authority for responding to an outbreak and having comprehensive plans and measures in place to protect their citizens. Considering the unique challenges posed by an avian flu outbreak why is it that XXXX has no specific pandemic plan and only an adaptable All Hazards Plan?

14.Also, regarding the All Hazards Site Regional Coordinating Committee it asks for representatives from town, health, faith based, and also members of the public. Can you tell me who is on the committee from the public sector? What stakeholders are represented on the regional coordinating committee from business, faith based organizations, private schools, etc.?

I will keep you posted

Ruth – at 14:07

I can’t wait to hear how they answer all those questions. They are great questions that should be asked of all city and town officials. I suspect few know how to answer them.

Annoyed Max- Not mad yet – at 14:19

Oh don’t forget to ask them what plans the planners have in place for when THEY loose 40% of their workforce. And ask about armed closing of the local borders I got an interesting response when I asked this.

Average Concerned Mom – at 14:20

Annoyed Max — what was the reponse???

Annoyed Max- Not mad yet – at 14:23

Don’t let them pull this either…oh that question is addressed in the existing plan xxx. You have to be like where is this additional plan and what does it say. My locals pandemic plan was hollow leads to other plans that had not been written yet or had nothing to do with AF and would not adapt well.

Annoyed Max- Not mad yet – at 14:26

Lethal force, closing of all the county borders. When I asked who would be making these decisions all they would say was the govt even when I pressed exactly who in govt they would only say the govt. But they plan on using national guard and local police at least and who knows what else.

Annoyed Max- Not mad yet – at 14:28

If they did try this it would cut off a huge part of travel through the NE. The interstate and 95 both run through the area not to mention local highways, rail, and air. I was lead to believe no one in and no one out.

crfullmoon – at 14:49

Go Birdie Kate, go!

Making copies of questions to hand media and others, if you only get to ask one question each, might be an idea for other people’s public pandemic meetings. I may rework your list before the Nov. public meeting here. (Going to need to be organized; so I don’t just have steam coming out of my ears.)

“the timely distribution” would be now; not wait until pandemic starts to rage and then pass out a lot of unfamiliar info, and say, So out of luck if you’re not ready for curfews, illness, out of town on vacation, ect.

senegal1 – at 15:32

Ok Here is what I think for what its worth.

I am never going to again ask “What are your plans?” Immediately these people talk about and/or pull out large reams of paper and say this is our plan. Frankly what I saw yesterday in the National Institutes of Health on Grassroots preparation and planning meeting was that people are using these plans like the have all the time in the world and the process of writing plans has become the response! Coming from a background of having dealt with real emergencies in real busted societies — I can not stress this enough.

The main point of having a plan is to 1) help people come to grips mentally that something like XXXX could happen; 2) to help you think through what resources you want to pre-stage; 3) to help you create the relationships that are the crucial points to help you get through an emergency. I would rephrase the questions above to point out that as one speaker said yesterday — its not a pandemic its a plandemic. Its sadly too true. Ask what is the timeline for having X in place? At what date will you have done X by? If you were to estimate today how long you might have before we are faced with a pandemic how long would you estimate? Are you aware that in the WHO`s latest preparedness document that they are saying “You must prepare NOW. A pandemic is imminent?” (That thread is on here — it was started last night. I thought the words were chilling.)

Another question: Is there an agreed upon ethics statement that all potential decision makers have signed and that we will expect decision makers to use when making the tough decisions? Kartine showed us that we need such a document. It is impossible to know all the difficult decisions that must be made in advance. However with a statement of ethics — really of what we expect our decision makers to do for us and to us — there will be an expectation that leaders and decision makers will be guided by fairness, justice, and open communication and voluntary compliance and this will engender more trust for enacting the difficult decisions that might have to be made. This should be a community known document with lots of imput in my view — such items as health workers and volunteers will never be compelled to work; distribution of any avaliable supplies will be equally done to all communities or we will seek to create the greatest good for the largest number of people or what ever the members of your community feel is fair. One of the speakers yesterday Judith Walzer Leavitt from the University of Wisconsin had the best presentation (after our own Anon 22!) showing the differences in two communities — one which the Director of Public Health used force to enforce laws and one where the Director of Public Health used open communication and cooperation to bring all parties in to enforce laws. Director A ended up creating riots and was ultimately removed from his position. Director B ended up with significant cooperation amoung all communities groups and was able to enforce some very difficult policies and had one of the lowest death rates for the epidemic of all major cities. This is one of the top things we need our leaders to realize.

Finally, we need to realize that we need to create a culture change. Most planners are speaking about educating the population and making them aware. This is useless. Most planners even knowning about how serious the situation is are not prepped. Most of the people in the room at the NIH yesterday — even the guy from John Hopkins had only a couple of gallons of water in his basement. Its about creating cultural change not just raising awareness. If you are half ashamed to ask your doctor about pandemic flu and your doctor writes you off — how seriously do you think anyone can take this? The stigma of talking about pandemic flu is almost worse than the intial stages of AIDs back in the 1970s. What is the community doing to get doctors to talk with their patients about pandemic flu and urge them to prepare?

Thats Just Ducky – at 15:40

Annoyed Max- Not mad yet – at 14:26

Were you able to find out what the triggering event for this action would be? When would they implement the travel restrictions?

Or does anyone else know?

Thats Just Ducky – at 15:55

Annoyed Max- Not mad yet – at 14:26

The DoD. Google “USNORTHCOM pandemic flu”. They just did a huge training excercise for the new unit to handle the pandemic flu earlier this month.

http://tinyurl.com/y33lnd “…While USNORTHCOM’s mission is to deter, prevent, and defeat aggression against the United States, its territories and interests, the command is also directed, upon request by the president or secretary of defense, to provide defense support assistance to civil authorities, which places it in the thick of preparedness planning for a pandemic flu….”

crfullmoon – at 16:07

“the process of writing plans has become the response! “ Bingo!

The public has been warned, for a long time, by many sectors,(there’d be a handy timeline!) to prepare because they are on their own; how are we telling our community to prepare for a pandemic influenza year?

What can we do next week, and every week, to improve their awareness and preparations?

How many of our first responders live in town? What can we do to change that?

Are there still people who feel, if pandemic occurs, “there is nothing we can do anyway”, or that, “the public can’t handle the truth” that are still being allowed authority?

(Goes off to keep temper from boiling over) (Do I have a facial tic yet?? Rrrr.) I’ll have to “channel” one of you calmer folks when we have our town’s little pandemic awareness presentation.

Annoyed Max- Not mad yet – at 16:11

They would not elaborate on when, and I think I caught the person off guard with my questions or they flat out didn’t know any more. I would guess it would be on the CDC or WHO to change the pandemic number of some other event that we can quantify that would initiate road blocks. It was clear that they had not examined this decision in any detail. Ill say this, God help anyone that points a weapon at me or gets in my way during a pandemic, it will not be greeted with a friendly smile. And to the people in charge that happen upon this, I guarantee this will be the response of everyone else. My response might be calculated but theirs will be out of terror and desperation.

senegal1 – at 16:27

Annoyed Max — Just so the problem!

Fiddlerdave – at 16:29

All these plans would be much more useful if they were on a paper stock that made them be better toilet paper.

crfullmoon – at 17:40

Firelighters, Fiddlerdave; a magnifying glass and a little sunlight.

-no wait; we’ll need some left for evidence/history…

Leo7 – at 18:22

Birdie Kate:

I’m afraid with that many questions they will tell you you’re hijacking the meeting and move on. Condense your list, is what I recommend. You want answers not attitude. Number four would be intersting to know because it would show someone had a heart to cover the problem. Good Luck!

crfullmoon – at 18:50

Devil is in the details if you ask #10. (Expedited/deputized prouncement/death cert/ burial? Are staffs’ households prepped, how long will fuel hold out for transport/digging - then, when that’s disrupted, what is the plan? )

Leo7, some good professionals may not volunteer if current planning makes it look like they will be stuck on site with no PPE, all run out of supplies/meds, no power, in two weeks or less, (if they’ve not gotten sick themselves by then). I also don’t want to lose all the trained health care workers; they are essential during recovery and beyond, too. (People also might be willing to help on their own terms, not under some botched local FEMA-type bureaucratic nightmare. Some have family commitments that have to come first, too; especially when feds and state say, we’re on our own, and, lack of local preparation still means even hcw’s families would be So Out of Luck.)

Birdie Kate – at 22:00

I am back….

meeting was good. only 5 members of the public attended. It was live on tv. the Dr spoke about pamdemics and the flu. The Emergency Manager spoke and said they are working on a plan. They will never be done the plan it will always be a plan in progress. They don’t have enough resources or manpower to do it all. He stressed heavily on volunteers. (I was screaming pick me, pick me on the inside). I didn’t ask all my questions and I did pare them down. SO here they are. I didn’t really learn anything that I didn’t know. It would have been better if there were more people there and they asked questions - i was the only one who asked questions and I was nervous as heck. I asked if we would have see the final plan and he said it would always be a work in progress.

Some of my questions were answered in what they said in their presentation and some answers I got from someone else who was there but not on the panel.

1. Is this forum to allow community development of the regional plan as stated in the state Memorandum of Understanding? And will there be another town wide forum to educate the community of the contents of the plan. ---------Didn’t get a clear answer.

2.Some experts are recommending individuals have 6 – 8 weeks worth of food, over the counter medicines, etc. when are your recommendations and when do you plan on having a broad based public awareness campaign to reach every resident of our town?. Does your plan include distribution of fact sheets regarding social distancing, sheltering in place, isolation and quarantine, etc. and who will be in charge of developing these plans and the timely distribution to every member of the town?


Yes we need volunteers. We have approached some town organizations. The health officer is in charge of handling this. We don’t really have a lot of resources or people to do this.

3.Are there plans in place to set up hotlines for information and is our town planning on creating an informational website to address concerns of the towns residents? Website and flyers --------We are working on that. We will post stuff on a website and have flyers available for the public.

4.How many licensed volunteers have volunteered to take care of residents who cannot take care of themselves? ------ don’t have that information on me. Have you done any recruiting of the 400+ licensed professionals we have on town? ----we have an application for volunteers that can be filled out.

5.Mike Leavitt, Sec of Health & human Services said at his May summit no pandemic will respect borders. You must prepare for an influx of individuals from border towns. There are currently 3000 plus gang members in surrounding towns. How do you plan on dealing with problems associated with the increase in crime and citizens? ----didn’t ask – although volunteers were needed when they talked about security issues.

6.Do you have an operational plan to implement various levels of movement restrictions within, to and from town? When will the public be informed of these restrictions? ---working on that will take direction from the state

7.What plans are in place to provide life saving maintenance medications to residents in town who are sheltering in place or quarantines? ----volunteers will deliver

8.Realistically speaking, bordering town has over 86,000 people; the hospitals in XXXX will not be able to take citizens from XXX as they will be overwhelmed. What plans are in place for XXX to care for its influenza patients and also for regular medical emergencies? ------ have requested money for that and have asked local businesses if their property can be used – heard this before the meeting

9.Experts agree there will be no vaccine available for at least 6 months and even then there will not be enough. Why is XXXX so focused on being a POD at this stage in the planning? – didn’t ask

10.What plans are in place for mass fatality management including funerals, burials, and deaths at home? Do you have alternative sites for mass fatality besides XXXX Funeral Home? -----looking at out of town ice rink – didn’t ask during meeting

11.It is estimated that there will be a 40% or more absenteeism rate among workers. What plans are in place if XXXX were to lose utilities due to the pandemic? - yes this is a concern as well as fuel, etc. working on this

Is XXXX ready to supply some type of shelter that would include heat and electricity? What about waste management? ----didn’t ask

12.The current strain of H5N1 has hit children the hardest, who will decide when to close the schools? School contingency plans for web based learning, ptv learning, etc? didn’t ask

13.The Memorandum of Understanding that all towns signed states that local communities are responsible under their own authority for responding to an outbreak and having comprehensive plans and measures in place to protect their citizens. Considering the unique challenges posed by an avian flu outbreak why is it that XXXX has no specific pandemic plan and only an adaptable All Hazards Plan? – didn’t ask

14.Also, regarding the All Hazards Site Regional Coordinating Committee it asks for representatives from town, health, faith based, and also members of the public. Can you tell me who is on the committee from the public sector? What stakeholders are represented on the regional coordinating committee from business, faith based organizations, private schools, etc.? ------ have talked to organizations but have not set up a committee

geez looks like i didn’t ask a ton.

FloridaGirlat 22:28

Birdie Kate – at 22:00

I do not know what state you are in… (so it may be different…)

Here, the public Health Department takes control of deciding whether schools are closed, sports events, or other gatherings take place when there is a health issue. This does not even have to be a pandemic for this to happen. Any type of outbreak that is communicable and is present in the community will trigger these actions. The Public Health Departments report diseases within the community and the CDC keeps track of the bigger picture. They then can advise the individual health department.

I thought I read something above about ethics. There are many studies and guidelines that talk about the ethics of tough decisions. There are guidelines on how to make decisions for scarce supplies, vents, meds, etc. that keep it fair and unbiased. These will probably guide most plans of this type…

Hope that helps a little…

25 October 2006

anonymous – at 00:26

Good job! It takes some big ones to get up there and start firing off questions. Keep up the good work, I wish more people would go to these kind of meetings and ask questions.

crfullmoon – at 07:41

“only 5 members of the public attended” -gee, they tried real hard to make sure people knew about that meeting, and that it was no vac ines, no fed/state/mutual aid, life-or-death pandemic year they were discussing didn’t they?

Thanks for trying.

(Ice rink is a no go.) (Have you told the ice rink owners yet? Bet they haven’t.) (Send ‘em to the Mass Fatality Management Plans threads)

Birdie Kate – at 09:56

They did say there would be no vaccine for 6 months and that we are on our own.

A lot of people I spoke with said they were not aware of the meeting. The meeting organizer said that they did put out press releases, flyers, etc. I told them I didn’t see any flyers and saw the press release in small print in the newspaper. I will look at the mass fatality plans. Thanks crfllmoon

I guess people just don’t care, want to know, or are too busy.

I woudl have asked more questions but was stumbling over the ones I asked. I was nervous. No one else asked anything so I was self concensius.

Anyways it worked out well, I did it and got some answers. Not all but some. Of course I am planning on staying on top of things as best I can.

Science Teacher – at 10:28

Birdie, congratulations for having the guts to stand up and ask questions. Sounds like you did a great job!

I’ve attended a few local events and have learned that the folks attending as well as the speakers, get more information from the questions then from the material presented. Questions that are unanswered get people’s attention and through the natural process of curiousity, they will look for answers. You may have provided the incentive for your town members to begin thinking outside the box. Those 5 folks that attended will tell others about your questions and lack of realistic answers provided by your town.

The only thing I would recommend in addition to what you have done would be to bring the downloadable Pandemic Awareness cards with the Fluwikie web address and hand them out to everyone there including the speakers.

You did good!

Birdie Kate – at 10:54

crfullmoon

anywhere specific in Mass Fatality Management Plans?

Thanks

crfullmoon – at 12:42

Canada had some words of wisdom, as did Ken West in the UK - let me see if I can go snag ‘em out. (Basically; why the current “we’ll let the bodies pile up in refrig trucks and ice rinks until one person processes ‘em all”, or, “well, when we can’t cope, we can just ask for a DMORT team to come” aren’t workable options.)

crfullmoon – at 13:30

Canada 2004 pdf Really worth a read, goes through all the normal steps now: forum page Snips from that here, (my bold): …”Within any locality, the total number of fatalities (including influenza and all other causes) occurring during a 6 - to 8-week pandemic wave is estimated to be similar to that which typically occurs over six months in the inter-pandemic period”

A number of issues have been identified,which should be reviewed with coroners/medical examiners, local authorities, funeral directors, and religious groups/authorities

“it is important to examine each step in the management of a corpse under normal circumstances and then to identify what the limiting factors will be when the number of corpses increase over a short period of time.” …

…”Existing disaster plans may include provisions for mass fatalities but should be reviewed and tested regularly, to determine if these plans are appropriate for the relatively long period of increased demand which may occur in a pandemic, as compared to the shorter response period required for most disaster plans.

There are currently no plans to recommend mass burials or mass cremations.

This would only be considered in the most extreme circumstances.

Since it is expected that most fatal influenza cases will seek medical services prior to death, hospitals, nursing homes and other institutions (including non-traditional sites) must plan for more rapid processing of corpses.

These institutions should work with the pandemic planners and the FSAC and coroner office to ensure that they have access to the additional supplies(e.g., body bags) and can expedite the steps, including the completion of required documents, necessary for efficient corpse management during a pandemic.”…

“Some religious groups maintain facilities including small morgues, crematoria and other facilities that are generally operated by volunteers.

Access to these resources should be discussed with these groups as part of the planning process during the interpandemic period.

In the event that local funeral directors are unable to handle the increased numbers of corpses and funerals, it will be the responsibility of municipalities to make appropriate arrangements. “…

…”To reduce any liability for business losses, municipalities should avoid using trucks with markings of a supermarket chain or other companies, as the use of such trucks for the storage of corpses may result in negative implications for business.”

…”Using local businesses for the storage of human remains is not recommended and should only be considered as a last resort.

The post-pandemic implications of storing human remains at these sites can be very serious, and may result in negative impacts on business with ensuing liabilities.” …

“It is the responsibility of the Medical Officers of Health to place restrictions on the type and size of public gatherings if this seems necessary to reduce the spread of disease. This may apply to funerals and religious services.

Medical Officers of Health should plan in advance for how such restrictions would be enacted, and enforced, and for consistency and equitability of the application of any bans”…

“Individual municipalities should work with local funeral directors to plan for alternate arrangements. Planning should also include a review of death documentation requirements and regulatory requirements that may affect the timely management of corpses.”…

(If pandemic is declared, have extra categories of people already identified as having authority to pronounce death, make death cert. -preposition the paperwork- ect. Now; ahead of the need for new rules, to prevent piling bodies up!) (Am I hijacking your thread? Or just answering with too much info, as I tend to do?)

“PREPARING FOR THE PANDEMIC A guide for cemetery and crematorium managers” (From a paper by Ken West, MBE, presented at the ICCM Corporate Seminar in April 2006.) pdf Forum page Snips: ““The disposal of the dead is not a statutory service for local authorities, neither has central government any control of burial and cremation facilities. No government minister has responsibility for the component elements of the death industry. This includes the NHS, coroners and registrar’s service, cemeteries and crematoria, many of these latter two being operated by the private sector. Funeral directing, cremator and coffin manufacturers are entirely private and independent bodies. integration of all these disparate elements into a pandemic contingency plan is difficult and probably impossible ” …

…”UK cemeteries seemed to have maintained business continuity in 1918 possibly due to the following reasons:

• They had ample new grave space • They had perhaps six times as many gravedigging and gardening staff to fall back upon, all working longer hours over 6 days. • Shoring was simpler, if used at all. • All disposals were by burial and based on manual work. • They were used to high death rates in winter from flu, excess cold, etc. • They were used to high death rates in summer from cholera, typhus, etc. • They were not reliant on gas, electricity and road fuel. • They had highly efficient manual booking processes. • Medical certification was more simplistic and post mortem numbers were much lower.• They could hire additional staff immediately and a large pool of manual employees existed.

It is important to note that the huge pandemic in 1918 was not anticipated nor observed until after it had killed high numbers. It is suggested that 20% – 40% of the world population were infected. It affected many army units and in view of the war no contingency preparations were made. “…

…”In the 2nd World War contingency arrangements were considered but they did not always prove effective. For instance, government demanded that civilian deaths use shrouds (to save the use of wood in coffins), be interred in mass graves (to save resources) and be interred where they die (to save bodies being repatriated around the country). Both public authorities and people completely ignored this demand and continued to hold conventional funerals. Government was shown to be entirely out of touch with the situation on that occasion.

The danger is that little or no investment in contingency arrangements will occur and a stand-off between public authorities and government could develop over who funds what. If this happens then we are likely to lurch into an emergency and be forced to concentrate on the practical issue of body disposal and leave very little resource to handle the psychological aspects with the necessary sensitivity.

The management of this large number of deaths cannot be resolved by technology and a huge amount of manual labour is going to be necessary in order to move and handle the bodies up to the final disposal. “…

…” The death process now relies on technology and the loss of fuel for computers, cremators and excavators increases the risk of failure. The use of such equipment has also made it more difficult to introduce new staff, all of whom usually need a period of skills training.

Success in coping with the pandemic will be entirely reliant on the availability of trained staff to keep the operation going. Hospital capacity will also suffer like ours and many of our staff will have to stay at home to care for the ill. “…

This is a frightening number of deaths on a week-by-week basis so how do we respond? 4.0 MANAGING A HIGH NUMBER OF DEATHS”…

…”8.0 PREPARING FOR COLLECTIVE BURIAL The term collective burial is used where burials occur in a trench in rapid succession, each burial separate and identified. It can be provided by relatively unskilled staff and does not rely on technology or external help. It is not “mass” burial where the bodies are placed together and one on top of another.

It is recognised that collective burial is not likely to be seen as morally acceptable in a modern society. Even temporarily, it could have a serious psychological impact on the bereaved in that the body will not be finally placed for some months and the grieving process will be interrupted.

Much as I feel we must avoid collective burial this is only assured if a massive amount of chilled body storage is provided. The high cost of this will not be borne by many authorities and it is unlikely the government will fund it.

Collective burial would be necessary where: Firstly, the number of dead exceeds the capacity to store, inter or cremate them Secondly, where the dead have to be temporarily interred because autopsy, registration or the Coroner’s service has collapsed.

Collective burial would involve excavating a trench 4’ 6” (1350mm) deep, 300’ (90000mm) long and 8’ (2400mm) wide which would accept 100 coffins laid side by side 3’ (900mm) apart. One hectare would accept about 2,000 bodies. A collective burial site could be used purely to put bodies into a sterile environment, as soil has an antiseptic quality, in order to hold back decomposition. After the emergency the bodies could be exhumed for post mortem or reburial/cremation in the conventional way.

9.0 BACK-UP STAFFING NEEDS Having run through the implications of the plan we can now consider the back-up staffing requirement. In Croydon, assuming a sickness rate of 25%, they will need 53 back-up staff, twice their current full-time compliment. This does not include staff employed on collective graves. There are many other back-up needs, not least generators and stocks.”…

…”11.0 POTENTIAL BOTTLENECKS OR PINCHPOINTS Apart from our own potential to fail we also need to consider:

• Failure of the registration service• Failure to obtain Forms B & C from NHS/Hospice/nursing homes • Failure of the Coroners service or mortuary service• Failure of Funeral Directors to deliver funerals • Failure of national road fuel supplies

12.0 ACTIONS Some of the actions we need to consider include: • Approaching cremator manufacturers about maintaining the operation of the cremators, and avoiding heat induced failures • Funding the expensive training and organising an exercise and simulation prior to next winter • Whether the pandemic could cause great hardship to some and particularly the disadvantaged. A response could include reducing the fees charged for burial and cremation. • How much the NHS will do on the psychosocial care of survivors bearing in mind current resources for such care are very poor. • How to ensure the psychosocial care of our own front line teams. “…

…”the extent of emergency powers. They are likely to highlight the need for equitable provision between authorities as the media will immediately focus on inconsistent standards and the impact this will have on psychological and grieving needs.

They may accept that it is not feasible to store the pandemic bodies at mortuaries, crematoria or funeral directors.

Neither is the use of refrigerated trucks for storage feasible in view of engine noise and pollution, and that moving bodies into and around these trucks is labour intensive, lacks decorum and requires a large discreet and secure parking area.

A further concern is that so many authorities will be in the same dilemma that an assumption that refrigerated trucks could readily be hired is erroneous.

The only solution is for each council to provide expensive temporary storage such as a chilled warehouse in order to avoid collective burial.

It seems likely the Home Office will accept that this is unrealistic and unaffordable. The Home Office may recognise that the disposal of a large number of bodies relies upon too many uncontrollable factors “…

…”The possibility of the service breaking down is extremely high and if bodies begin accumulating, the situation could quickly become serious.”…

(So, 6 months work in 6 weeks does not mean the pandemic year will be over by then, either. And I’m not sure what the attack/fatality/and collaeral mortality rates will be. But, everyplace thinking they can just drop the ball and have outside help come in, or, public won’t be outraged if they have to have mass graves, is just planning to fail the public.)

Cremation Association of North America Pandemic White Paper pdf from a “PI” USNORTHCOM event March 2006, Virginia.

…”Number to those estimated “to perish” during another PI (pandemic influenza) event in the US “between 5% and 7% of the infected population” (est 25% infected) (numbers provided by JTF-CS) (and also manage the 2.4 million deaths annually in the US)”…

…” Many of our JTF-CS committee members believe the single most important message that must be relayed to our senior leaders at the local state and federal levels is the need to develop a mass fatality/mortuary affair Emergency Support Function (ESF). …

Additionally, mass fatality/mortuary operations must move to the forefront of disaster planning rather than continue as a topic no one wants to address for all levels of government

Birdie Kate – at 14:35

Thanks! I will pass this on.

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.MeetingTonight
Page last modified on October 25, 2006, at 02:35 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / New Rumors VII

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: New Rumors VII

24 October 2006

Bronco Bill – at 13:22

Continued from here

That’s Just Ducky! – at 13:28

Bluebonnet – at 09:23

“…From another site I read:

-Alot of internal debate going on in localized areas. One half wants to inform the public the other half wants to wait until BF hits. Then just shack them up in shelters. Plans are in place for PSA’s and other ways of communication to teach people how to deal with a deceased person at home. May be several days before they can be picked up in larger areas. Told us once imbalmed, they dont have to be refridgerated. They can be stored anywhere and then make a mass burial. Any funerals will be after the flu has passed. You may have a loved one pass away and not be able to have a service for 2 months afterwards. Chances are not body for the service when you do because it will have been buried in a mass burial. Funerals will not be allowed. It was discussed today that now instead of being the 3rd step, social distancing may become the first step. So when a state has its first sign of human to human transmission, if that is, social distancing will go into effect. …”

What site did you read this from?

Bronco Bill – at 13:30

That’s Just Ducky! – at 13:28 --- Just a comment/recommendation---remove the apostrophe and exclamation point from your name. It’s causing you to not appear as the author in the Last 50 Changes list. Thanks…

Thats Just Ducky – at 13:39

Bronco Bill – at 13:30

Okay, thanks. Although I’m not too keen on appearing to be illiterate!

Bluebonnet – at 13:43

Ducky - www.terminusreality.com

Check 9103 weekly meetings section.

Also, just got this e-mailed where I work:

“Due to the overwhelming response for flu shots from patients and employees, our current supply of vaccine has been exhausted. There’s an unexpected delay in shipment of additional vaccine, therefore all future flu clinics are on hold until further notice.”

Curioser and curioser! I’ve worked here 8 years and this has never happened before.

Bronco Bill – at 13:49

Thats Just Ducky – at 13:39 --- ‘sokay. It’s not you, it’s the software platform that does that for us! ;-) Thanks.

Thats Just Ducky – at 14:10

Apparantly you have to be a member on www.terminusreality.com to get to the weekly meetings section. I’ve just registered and will log in when I get the approval email from the administrator.

Thanks Bluebonnet.

Thats Just Ducky – at 14:12

“Due to the overwhelming response for flu shots from patients and employees, our current supply of vaccine has been exhausted. There’s an unexpected delay in shipment of additional vaccine, therefore all future flu clinics are on hold until further notice.”

My wild speculation? Rerouted/reassigned to members of the military and their families.

Leo7 – at 14:18

Ducky, you’ve gone ducky. Why not the politicians, why the military? After what sixty years of transporting and storing vaccines we suddenly freeze them? The company was cited for contamination issues during the processing. I’m guessing they really never got back to par, assuming they got rid of all the numerous contamination issues. In a pre-pandemic buildup to you think they would admit for the second year they fell short?

Average Concerned Mom – at 14:19

That’s Just Ducky — maybe, but as we’ve been discussing on another thread, it seems this year the big box stores and clinics (Costcco, BJs, Walgreens, etc.) got their supply of vaccines FIRST, with small dribbles sent out to dr’s offices and perhaps workplaces as well. Certainly, plenty of people have been able to get their flu shot at those places with no problem this year.

lady biker – at 14:28

I don’t know what is goin on but I made an appointment for my flu shot last week and then they called me the day I was susposed to get it and said that they didn’t have any shots but would call me when they did. said my name is on the list. several folks around here have been told the same thing. I thought that there was susposed to be an over abundance of the flu shots this year. this is so weird.

banshee – at 14:32

I called my doctor’s office and they were very uncertain as to when they would get flu shots. So, I went to my local grocery store last week and got my flu vax there. $25. Is it possible that the big box stores pay more for the flu vax? Or, does every flu vax provider pay the same price for their shipment?

Oremus – at 14:43

lady biker – at 14:28

I posted on the news thread (2 days ago?), they have enough vaccine but there has been a distribution problem causing temporary shortages.

Thats Just Ducky – at 14:45

Leo7 – at 14:18 “Ducky, you’ve gone ducky.” LOL! Probably the politicians, too! I DID say it was wild speculation! ;)

RE the contamination, I wonder about all the shots (including mine) that have already been administered. I wonder if that’s what the “distribution problem” is that we’ve heard about.

It may very well be that the retail outlets for the shots pay more for them than the doctors’ offices. It could be the high demand for them at the higher prices that has resulted in the “distribution problems”.

Again, pure speculation on my part, but, you have to admit, plausible.

observer – at 14:46

We have a group that offers flu shots at our building every year - they provided shots yesterday to anyone who showed up for $25. I think those who ordered early got their supply and my guess is demand is up. I don’t normally get shots but did this year.

NJ Jeeper – at 14:47

My guess is that the flu mfg have to satisfy their big customers first and fill in to the drs. as they have it available.

banshee – at 14:49

NJ Jeeper – at 14:47, I think you might have just pinned it down.

TRay75at 15:12

Just another example, last Friday I had my daughter, 6, scheduled to get her flu shot and 2 stitches she had the week before removed. We got there and “surprise”, no flu shots available, and no advance call. My wife, my son, and I are due to get ours from her employer early in November. Wonder if we will get a call early enough to go to a big box instead, or if I’ll end up missing out like last year?

Chesapeake – at 15:35

My doctor had flu shots in the office in September. I asked her how come she got hers early, she said they were late last year so she ordered real early this year.

tjclaw1 – at 16:49

I got my flu shot at doc’s office last week and my kids got it yesterday at ped’s office.

Our county is holding it’s annual flu clinic on Saturday (I’m volunteering as part of the Strategic National Stockpile Mass Dispensing Program) and we are supposed to have 1,600 to distribute. As far as I know, it’s here, but I’ll inquire tomorrow of my friend who is coordinating the clinic.

OKbirdwatcherat 17:51

Medical care now being served up at your local big box store. OMG. What’s next, I wonder.

AzNewBeat 19:24

Just got off the phone with my DS she is a member of the pan flu task force in her county. They were told at their weekly meeting today that WHO has gone level 4. I’ve looked on the WHO site and nothing there yet. She is in the process of having it verified right now.

DennisCat 19:30

AzNewBe – at 19:24 level 4

Now that is an interesting rumor.

ChuckEat 20:01

AzNewBeat 19:24

Please confirm this as soon as you can this could be a major chage in things.

Bird Guano – at 20:09

They won’t make it public IF it’s true until Friday afternoon.

AFTER the markets close.

cottontop – at 20:19

bird guano- I’m willing to bet that’s what will happen. Look what the stock market did today. They won’t risk it.

Bird Guano – at 20:22

Article quoted by Effect Measure out of Thailand in the Phase 4 thread.

Anything official is still unconfirmed.

But looks like some of the scientists are rumbling and starting to breaking ranks.

Won’t make much difference to us here. WHO would be playing catch up with real-world.

AzNewBeat 20:23
 ok just got off phone with DS she says that there where 2 individuals who said this at their meeting. One was their Red Cross Rep. the 2nd was an Health official of University of New Mexico. This really pushed her panic button, as she only recently started preping, She a ER RN and her county is a pilot program for Pan Flu prep in NM. I’m thinking since nothing at WHO site maybe they(reps) were maybe reading at this site and was quoting our dear Dr. Woodson??? Not sure either way I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.
DennisCat 20:44

cottontop – at 20:19 “stock market “

perhaps it is a good time to get out of the market into the money market.

Pixie – at 21:00

Bird Guano - fortunately the Effect Measure piece on the scientist in Thailand stating his view that we were at Phase 4 was printed in September, 2005. What he says is what we all know, but that piece is not a new one.

cactus – at 21:19
  And, Woodson`s opinion here at the start of the stop cutting bait thread had the same thing.
Monotreme – at 22:36

I would not be so quick to dismiss the importance of WHO going to phase 4, if that in fact that has happened. I have felt that we were actually at level 4 for over a year. The old-timers will remember the discussions as to why the WHO did not go to phase 4 despite the obvious evidence that we should be at the level. The issue, imo, is trade with China. Phase 4 results in travel restrictions to areas/countries with confirmed outbreaks of H5N1. That would include China. The economic significance of such a step is enormous. I believe fear of phase 4 declaration is driving China’s single-minded determination to get their creature, Margaret Chan, installed as the next Director-General of the WHO. I am sure she has strict instructions not to declare phase 4 until after the pandemic has started. Declaration of phase 4 now, while we still have interim Director-General, would be highly significant.

So, if anyone has connections at the WHO, it would be great if we could get a firm confirmation or denial of this rumor. FrenchieGirl?

Monotreme – at 22:38

btw, here is page where the WHO gives the current phase of pandemic alert. Right now, it still says 3.

DeLucaat 23:42

Flu Vaccine Information: I have managed medical practices and worked as a practice consultant for many years. The shortage in the doctors office is probably for a less sinister reason than you might think. The practices order the serum before the season starts and generally they order the number of shots used the year before. This year, because of increased awareness, they may have had additional folks coming in for immunization and ran out more quickly. The second issue is financial. The reimbursement from the major insurers is only a few dollars more than what the shots actually cost. Considering that the practice has to lay out the money for the serum in August and not get reimbursed until months later, some practices may not re-order once they run out, assuming that the patients can get a flu shot elsewhere. If your doc could charge 25 dollars and get paid cash at the time of service, he/she might be more inclined to have enough on hand through the winter. As it is, the practice needs to use staff, invest money and it is mostly a wash. It doesn’t seem fair that Wal-Mart or Super Supermarket makes a profit where your own family doc cannot. Large companes that give flu shots have the same problem with inventory. If 50 employees got the shot last year, they may have ordered 60 this year but they probably wouldn’t have ordered 100. It will snowball into next year as well because they know that 60 doses wasn’t enough but they don’t know how many people were unable to get a flu shot because there were none left. It cold be one or one hundred. So, next year they’ll order more than 60 but they won’t really know exactly how many more they should order.

Oremus – at 23:51

DennisC – at 20:44

I have my money in commodities……. rice, beans, tuna.

Oremus – at 23:54

Monotreme – at 22:36

China won’t allow level 4 until after the Olympics. 8^(

Edna Mode – at 23:59

Monotreme – at 22:36

Monotreme, I think you are completely correct that it is about the economic implications. The Chinese aren’t the only ones that don’t want travel restrictions to/fro their country. There are plenty of heavily invested western companies that have all but relocated most if not all of their manufacturing capacity to China. Those who haven’t relocated to China are foaming at the mouth at the increase in new-found discretionary income many in China are enjoying. China and other SEA nations are the new frontier for consumer exploitation. I listen to CEOs blather about it every day in the work I do. Many, many fingers in this pie.

25 October 2006

Monotreme – at 00:04

Edna Mode – at 23:59

Yes, you’re right, it’s not just the Chinese government that is getting rich off of outsourcing. This is why I despair that any country will try to block Margaret Chan from becoming DG.

The pigs and the farmers are having one heck of a party (Apologies to George Orwell).

FrenchieGirlat 04:37

Monotreme – at 22:36 - Am sick at home. And my contacts are not high level enough. If I manage to get to the office tomorrow, will enquire. But I doubt anything will happen before they have a new DG anyway.

crfullmoon – at 07:10

(Feel better soon, FrenchieGirl. Thanks for all you’ve been doing.)

Monotreme – at 09:02

FrenchieGirl – at 04:37

Take care of yourself.

I agree the WHO is unlikely to raise the alert now, but just wanted to check out this rumor.

Bronco Bill – at 10:54

THIS POST IS NOT A RUMOR!! :-)

Starting a new “New Rumors VIII” thread here, with the opening post from the Rumour of WHO Level 4 thread.

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Page last modified on October 25, 2006, at 11:28 AM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Rumour of WHO Level 4

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Rumour of WHO Level 4

24 October 2006

Walrus – at 19:50

There is a suggestion (not yet confirmed) that WHO has just gone level 4. With respect, if it has perhapos it deserves its own thread?

ChuckEat 19:53

Ummm…. ok… so… now what?

DennisCat 19:54

just for reference here is the current (?) phase level: The WHO site:

http://tinyurl.com/9mvy8

The point being, if you are searching you may want to use the WHO term phase instead of level.

gardner – at 19:54

Maybe if it they have gone to 4. But have they gone to 4? Their website still says 3. How do we find out the facts?

Bird Guano – at 19:54

IF it’s confirmed, then it definitely deserves it’s own thread.

Please post links to confirmation.

There are certain parts of state’s pandemic response plans that trigger at WHO Level 4.

Medical Maven – at 19:55

Well, it would be damn embarrassing for us here at fluwiki if some outbreak got past our radar that was significant enough to break the logjam at WHO.

Anon_451 – at 19:56

Walrus. We have been here before. I saw it posted on the Rumors page and that is were it belongs until the official announcement. Even if they have made that announcement, it really does not change anything for the people here. We still need to watch and wait.

If it does happen then we may get some needed support from our local governments in helping get our communities ready for something we already know about.

In short, we wait and chill and have a glass of RWFK.

Tom DVM – at 19:57

Walrus.

Politics kept them from upgrading the risk when they should have…if this is true politics is making them change it now…

…It is just another political institution within a political institutuion.

The World Health Organization has lost moral authority…no one is listening to them anymore…no one cares…

…Dick, I know a real good place you can put that pandemic scale.

Medical Maven – at 20:00

Tom, you brought a smile to my face and riotous laugh from my lungs. (And I didn’t even imbibe this evening).

no name – at 20:00

Tom DVM

Does the sun shine there?

no name – at 20:01

Or is totally in the dark?

Bird Guano – at 20:02

Don’t panic.

By WHO’s OWN (old) definition, we’ve been at 4 for months.

It really doesn’t change a thing for US.

But it does trigger certain aspects of pandemic plans IF it indeed comes to pass.

I’m not holding my breath.

It’s a political decision. NOT a risk communication decision.

Tom DVM – at 20:02

MM. Thanks. /:0)

no name. You got it!!

DennisCat 20:04

ChuckE – at 19:53 “now what”

you can see what WHO plans at various levels, phases, at: WHO global influenza preparedness plan

http://tinyurl.com/9fflb

Betty – at 20:07

Walrus…who “suggested” this? (no pun intended). I know it doesn’t change where we are with this, as I believe we have been at 4 for a long time, but it does make me take notice.

crfullmoon – at 20:08

Yawn; G’night folks.

Effect Measure

Bird Guano – at 20:18

crfullmoon – at 20:08 Yawn; G’night folks.

Effect Measure


LOL, sounds like WHO is playing catch-up with the rest of the scientific community, and having their own “adjustment reaction”.

Pixie – at 21:03

The Effect Measure piece was written in Sept., 2005 - no new news there.

anon_22 – at 21:04

Medical Maven – at 19:55

Well, it would be damn embarrassing for us here at fluwiki if some outbreak got past our radar that was significant enough to break the logjam at WHO.

THAT was exactly what I was thinking.

Shows my where my priority lies… or maybe loyalty as well?

LOL

Influentia2 – at 21:21

Anon_22 and MM

Well, it would be damn embarrassing for us here at fluwiki if some outbreak got past our radar that was significant enough to break the logjam at WHO.

_______________________________________________________________

I may end up eating crow(think I read something about that one time on another thread) but I can’t believe anything got past us.(inflated opinion of our FW news hunting skills on my part perhaps:)If “it” was never fully disclosed to begin with, that is another story. I think we have searched and dissected and speculated on just about everything that is out there to find. If this rumor is true maybe WHO is just catching up to the rest of us, but it probably is all political anyway.

Just my humble two cents that I should have kept to myself probably. We will just have to wait and see. This rumor was around this summer too.

Tom DVM You crack me up. Keep up what you do here, I really enjoy reading your posts. I can usually find something you say to laugh about and Lord knows I need a laugh once in a while. We all do here.

enza – at 21:32

Medical Maven – at 19:55

Well, it would be damn embarrassing for us here at fluwiki if some outbreak got past our radar that was significant enough to break the logjam at WHO

It could happen; we have a hard time reaching consensous. The ‘tin foil hat’ folks and the ‘perpetual skeptics’ hardly agree. I have seen potentially important threads dissolve into arguments between the two camps. Discourse is good and we should be careful of misinformation because we have a high standard to maintain —esp now that we have the blessings of the CDC ;-) However, if are to get the ‘early worm scoop’ we need to consider that it may start as ‘rumour’. Just my $0.02c

Leo7 – at 21:33

All: I read the rumors thread and I wouldn’t bet the people in New Mexico, both locals, got a jump on a WHO decision. No way. The news mining here is incredible and wouldn’t have missed a whiff. It’s a fluke.

DennisCat 21:37

Leo7 – at 21:33 “people in New Mexico”

and some of us here are from NM. You might be suprised at what goes through places like Los Alamos. After all they are sitting on a lot of sequences.

enza – at 21:40

Tom DVM

That quote may be the best I’ve ever heard.

I am rof laughing my tail feathers off. I needed a laugh this evening. Had to do a presentation to a really tough crowd today, it wasn’t until a full length presentation and about 2/3 way through our little TTX that I saw the lights coming on..

Grace RN – at 21:55

I’ll bet 2 bottles of my BBRWFK that we’d be at level 5.9738671 by the time the WHO announced we’re at level 4.

Leo7 – at 21:58

Dennis C:

I didn’t mean it as a slur. I meant it as two locals-how would they be in the know about the WHO’s plan when it’s not even on the web site? I thought at first a WHO speaker was present till I read the thread.

 As for the sequences, I’m betting a hundred years from now another scientist will dig them up and write a book about how “we knew it was coming and we didn’t prepare”.  The next thing that happens to the author is overnight he becomes a conspiracy theorist and is kicked out of academia.  History is a circle afterall.
Jane – at 22:34

Very interesting that WHO doesn’t consider any communication with the public until declaration of phase 5-BAM-expect travel restrictions and shortages of basic commodities-good luck! I know they’re concerned with health issues, but starving isn’t exactly healthful. Why haven’t they directed governments to warn the people to prepare? They are specific enough with other details.

Siam – at 22:58

Maybe they have already and we aren’t hearing about it. Just a thought.

Okieman – at 22:59

Please see the “Lookout Post for Australasia Melanesia and Micronesia” thread. If the WHO has gone Level 4, could this be the reason? The timing is interesting to say the least.

AzNewBeat 23:03
 Leo 7-- not only were “they” not locals but there was also a member of the CDC at that meeting as well. and he didn’t debunk their claim. As for NM as far as I know they are the only state with county’s that are actively getting the community as a whole involved from teaching in the schools how to treat minor illness and distancing practice to sending out prep lists to homes either through school children and other flyers telling people to prep for 6 months or better. can your state say the same???

I’m sorry if my making a statement on the rumors site upset things here, but i did state that the WHO’s site had not been changed. I did look there before I posted, I just thought it was intresting but not something I myself could for sure confirm. I posted in the hope of others that are involved in various groups could maybe confirm.

Spirit in the Wind – at 23:16

AzNewBe, making statement on the rumors thread about a rumor is perfectly fine. You didn’t do anything to feel sorry for. Keep posting what you hear. The office grapevine often has the scoop long before the offical announcements, and fluwiki rumor theads are no different.

Tom DVM – at 23:22

Maybe all of the concerns voiced in the threads about India, Indonesia and that other country that has slipped my mind at the moment, weren’t as farfetched as some might have thought.

If nothing else…and there is of course probably something else…you have proved, beyond a shadow of a doubt that a pandemic could begin disguised as something else and be gone before anyone even noticed it wasn’t Dengue etc.

I can only thank those that spent so many hours on those threads…you should be proud of the results.

anonymous – at 23:33

Bird Guano – at 20:02 By WHO’s OWN (old) definition, we’ve been at 4 for months.

Yup. So in “dog years,” WHO phase 4 is actually phase 5, no?

anonymous – at 23:33

That was me. Cookies off.

Hurricane Alley RN – at 23:33

Does anyone here have any idea why hospitals in India are setting up isolation wards for dengue fever? Got this from the India thread. gina

Edna Mode – at 23:35

Let’s try this again. That was me at 23:33.

Newsie – at 23:48

Interesting stuff. The WHO has been operating at a declared 3 for some time when it should have been 4. Now that they are at declared 4 should we assume it really is a 5?

enza – at 23:51

Gina, other HCWs:

what is the primary objevtive of an isolation ward?

enza – at 23:52

objective…sorry.

witness – at 23:52

Hey Tom DVM - Your thankyou brought a smile to my face.Much needed as a neighbors dog killed a pet chicken of mine today that had 9 little chicks to raise.I just did a news search to try and take my mind off things and found some things to post.Again thankyou.

Goju – at 23:55

When I met with Dr. nabbarro he said the UN asked WHO to go to 4 months ago. They refused. he said they were correct to refuse.

startled – at 23:55

Can someone please retitle this damn thread?

Anon_451 – at 23:57

AzNewBe – at 23:03 I took it exactly as you posted it. Something that you heard from a source you trusted but could not confirm. Like TOM DVM I feel if they do go to 4 it will be late on a Friday after the New York markets close so as to give it time to sink in and not set the markets off.

You did good and for that I thank you.

25 October 2006

blam – at 00:28

Who comes here to find out what’s happening, lol.

Bird Guano – at 00:38

The fact that WHO is always behind the curve is probably why my pucker factor is so high at the momenti.

If they do indeed confirm 4, then in my mind they just declared a 5, and that WILL trigger some immediate action steps on my part.

Not panic. Just additional IMMEDIATE action steps having to do with closer information scrutiny and a top off to the top off of preps.

Hurricane Alley RN – at 00:48

Enza @ 23:51 - An isolation ward should not be required since dengue fever is not spread h2h. Dengue fever is a mosquito born virus. If the doctors are worried about the immune system being compromised, then these patients need to be in isolation rooms not wards. Could something else be occurring? Are they testing for h5n1? gina

Bird Guano – at 00:52

Hawaii had an outbreak of Dengue a few years ago.

I was there for most of it.

They did NOT set up isolation wards.

enza – at 01:02

There is a comment on the India thread associating isolation and moqsuito nets. I think those are two completly differt things. The mosquito nets I understand—I have lived in the tropics. The isolation wards denote h2h to me, but of what?

gharris – at 01:02

The Reveres posted this on Effect Measure A YEAR AGO!! Monday, September 05, 2005 Thai newspaper: pandemic phase 4?

The Nation, a national newspaper in Thailand, is quoting Dr Kamnuan Ungchusak, the director of Thailand’s Disease Control Department, Bureau of Epidemiology, as saying the bird flu virus has changed in a way as to alter the pandemic disease status from WHO’s phase 3 (“Human infection(s) with a new subtype, but no human-to-human spread, or at most rare instances of spread to a close contact”) to phase 4 (“Small cluster(s) with limited human-to-human transmission but spread is highly localized, suggesting that the virus is not well adapted to humans”).

“It’s apparent to us insiders that [the virus] has already moved from phase 3 to phase 4 [in terms of the World Health Organisations’pandemic alert levels],” said Dr Kamnuan Ungchusak whose work on human-to-human H5N1 strain of avian flu was published in the New England Journal of Medicine in January.

Reports of the infection spreading among humans in four countries including Cambodia, Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam have suggested to scientists that the virus has become more pathogenic than ever, the doctor said.

“The virus remains virulent enough to sicken or kill another victim who is in close contact with the infected person, said Kamnuan who is the director of the Disease Control Department’s Beureau of Epidemiology.

Reports of human-to-human infection have been most recently documented in a cluster of infections in Indonesia, he said, adding that all of the infected people were in the same family and had not been in contact with any poultry or other sources of disease, aside from infected family members. Dr. Kamnuan is indeed a “flu insider,” having reported the first widely accepted case of human to human transmission in the medical literature. The Nation records him as deploring his government’s continued insistence that human to human transmission has not been demonstrated, characterizing it as “false information.”

Thailand has been more diligent of late in surveillance and prompt reporting of poultry infections to the OIE (the international agency that keeps track of animal disease outbreaks). But they need to face the facts they report. Whether this is obfuscation to avoid alarming their citizenry or just plain denial is unclear, but Dr. Kamnuan is right on the mark here.

This virus is Hurricane Katrina a thousand times over.

Bird Guano – at 01:15

And instead of following their own guidelines, WHO chose to re-write their phase descriptions to avoid raising the level.

I think that which was written in 2005, is just as valid today.

I would be surprised if WHO raised the pandemic level to 4.

It’s politically distasteful to them.

johnO – at 05:00

This has gone on for 1/2 a day, is there actually any evidence they’ve gone to level 4??? What was the source of this report?

Bronco Bill – at 06:02

So far, unless someone comes up with a link showing for a fact that WHO raised the alert level, this whole thing is nothing more than a rumor. Whether or not we really should be at phase 4, WHO hasn’t officially raised the level.

crfullmoon – at 06:36

Choking on my coffee laughing; I really hope some local official in the next few days quotes “WHO’s at Phase 3″ to me, or, “We only act as the WHO phases go up” just so I can say, You didn’t want “the public” to know, because of “panic” (economic/political burnt toast?); ever occur to you the WHO wasn’t telling you what’s going on, either?

All the “speak with one voice; stay on message” stuff just means we get the lowest common denominator, which in real life can mean people fail to learn from history, again, and more lives are lost where history is going to say, Why didn’t they act to mitigate that?

WHO phases, (actuary tables, probability estimates, or whatever it is some look to); that is not reality.

Reality is outdoors, from the microscopic to space-telescope level, from the bottoms of our own oceans we can’t find with both hands and a flashlight, to all sorts of “unknown unknowns”, and, an endless supply of human ignorance, error, greed, hubris, stupidity, bad government, short-sightedness, whatever.

Look at it this way; it’s not a contest to be the first to know when they get around to raising the level; probably they haven’t been at 3 since the Nov.2005 date on the chart, right? Or they’d have agreed and updated the date, at least. Got it covered both ways; not exactly lying, just rewriting the phase definitions, and, unplugging the phase lights too many officials assumed (still assume?) they could hang their plans on.

Really wish in that recent article the WHO released, besides saying the world isn’t ready and needs a vaccine program push, that they had said more about community and individual preparedness to cope 1918-style should already be underway, because pandemic could happen at any moment in the next 3 to 5 years it would take to crank up more non-egg-based vaccines, and, enough manufacturing plants to make them.

The facts about who is sick on the planet and with what are the kind of “facts” to care about, not whether WHO bureaucrats have finally dusted the cobwebs off their phase page.

Startled – at 23:55, you’re right; WHO Level 4 Rumors would title better wouldn’t it?

Chesapeake – at 07:47

Does this thread qualify for the MisInformation Hall of Shame?

Feather Pillow – at 07:58

Wasn’t there a new committee at WHO formed about a month ago with big names whose purpose would be to meet and discuss the need (if necessary) to change the phase level? As I recall, the committee would make recommendations and then it would be up to the head honcho to actually change it. Perhaps there are rumors at WHO as well that leadked out, but nothing official. Any word as to whether or not the committee has been called together?

Green Mom – at 08:13

AzNewBE- May I ask- are you new to the Wiki? I’m going by your nickname. In case you are, please please, keep reporting any rumours you may hear. The folks here are ticked off at the WHO-not at you. Thanks for the info.

Everyone-A reminder, I think is in order-We are all irritated with the Who and we are all stressed by the thought of Pandemic, However-if you read this thread through the eyes of someone who hasn’t posted much before, there is a very strong Cassandra Tone about it.

Green Mom – at 08:26

Sorry, I accidently hit post before I was through. I’m having feline displacement complications this morning- I can’t keep my cat off my keyboard

Anyway the whole point of the Wiki is looking for and making others aware of very bad news. Lets be carefull of what we say AND HOW WE AY IT to those who (in good faith, not spammers) are bringing us the bad news.

Okieman – at 08:35

Hello Green Mom,

Just had to look up the definition of Cassandra. I have heard the term numerous times but never chased down the meaning. I find it interesting that it derives from a prophetess that supposedly gave true prophecies to the city and king of Troy but was doomed to never be believed. Apropos? Here is a brief definition. It is explained more indepth on the link provided.

Greek Mythology. A daughter of Priam, the king of Troy, endowed with the gift of prophecy but fated by Apollo never to be believed.

One that utters unheeded prophecies.

http://www.answers.com/topic/cassandra

cottontop – at 08:44

I for one am happy for the lull in the news, and this doesn’t really get my PPF up. My brain is taking a break, and so am I, catching up on some much needed stuff. Can’t believe how slooow the news has been this week. Is anybody else using this “down time” for catching up?

Snowhound1 – at 09:08

cottontop…yep. :)

JWB – at 09:09

Last week, I suggested (on the India or Indonesia thread?),that we may have a WHO leak soon.

Now I thinking they may even float a trial balloon leak to gauge the reaction. WHO knows? (Pun intended).

cottontop – at 09:12

JWB- could that mean they are serious about raising the alert?

Commonground – at 09:12

cottontop - yes Ma’am. We sold our home last night - so now instead of moving twice, I have to have everything ready for the movers on December 2nd. Ought to be interesting what happens with this Phase 4 rumor. I’ve very excited and happy with my new adventure. Glad there is no news.

Pixie – at 09:14

Congrats Commonground!

Well, you know we told them to put all news and phase changes on hold until your move was over. It was the least we could do.

Chesapeake – at 09:17

Green Mom, I don’t think anyone said or did anything wrong to AZNewBe, and I don’t think she is a new poster. She posted her rumor where it should have been posted. The problem is this threads title…maybe it should have had a question mark after it.

NJ Jeeper – at 09:19

Could the moderators put a ? after the title of this thread please? It is sort misleading until you read the details and no way to wake up.

cottontop – at 09:24

Congrats also, Commonground. Hope the weather holds out for you, and that the news will stay on hold until your settled. I’m still looking for someone going south, so I can hitch a ride!! A snowbird I ain’t.

Commonground – at 10:18

cottontop & pixie, Thanks so much for the congrats. Right now I’ve got about 5 weeks till I’m moved. Even if the SHTF, I think I could make it work somehow? Cottontop, I don’t think the news will stay on hold till I’m settled. Isn’t that a shame? Wish I didn’t feel that way…..but I do. I don’t think the WHO is going to change the phase. I would be surprised if they did. Title is misleading.

cottontop – at 10:28

Commonground-

Put on some ABBA and relaaaaaaaaax! You deserve it.

Closed and Redirected - Bronco Bill – at 10:53

I’m closing this thread and directing all y’all’s attention to the new New Rumors VIII thread. I’ve copied the opening post from this thread to that one.

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.RumourOfWHOLevel4
Page last modified on October 25, 2006, at 11:05 AM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Preps You Might Forget IV

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Preps You Might Forget IV

03 September 2006

Bronco Bill – at 17:51

Continued from here


03 September 2006
MaMa – at 11:59

not sure if anyone mentioned these yet…

Don’t forget replacement light bulbs for your flashlights. I always have lots of batteries, never thought of the bulbs until one blew when I really needed it. Learned that one the hard way.

Black electrician’s tape to repair split cords, etc. Extra little plastic caps to safely cover wire ends are nice to have on hand too

Basic plumbing tools and supplies like a pipe wrench, extra washers for your taps, a new wax toilet seal, some silicone sealant (the kind that will work in wet conditions)…and a manual or a good friend to show you how to use it all.

A new door handle, hardware for each of your exterior doors and tools to replace for each of your exterior doors, they break at inconvenient times(like in the middle of a blizzard:-). The directions are usually on the box (and if I could figure it out with 2 toddlers attached to my leg, anybody can:-)

A roll of heavy guage plastic sheeting, hammer and nails, narrow pieces of wood, a saw and duct tape for emergency window repair. Not pretty but effective.


MaMa – at 12:10 …and to go with all of it one of those headlamps is nice to have so your hands are free while making repairs in dark places and bad weather.


Anon in uk – at 13:54 I dont know if you have this one it is quite handy.Dry shampoo if anyone is ill or water is too short.we have it here in mobility-Disabled sites

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 18:02

Not only plastic sheeting for windows, but we’ll have to construct a plastic room outside on our porch, with one of those Home Depot zippers in it to use it to come and go from. Go through it, open our front door, set down your ‘stuff’ and spray with Lysol, place shoes in cleanser, GermX for your hands (already sitting on a pedestal inside a pretty little red bag so it at least sort of looks like it should be there), then down the inside steps, through another sheet of plastic with a zipper and into the house.

Prepping Gal – at 19:01

Just read a phamplet about travelling with prescription drugs. One good idea was if you need to keep your meds refrigerated or cool; fill thermos with cold water, empty and insert meds (I guess in a ziplock or watertight container). You could refresh cold water every day and keep it for a longer time.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 19:30

That’s a clever idea!

04 September 2006

Bump – at 00:49
Bump – at 00:49
blackbird – at 02:59

Recent problems with refrigerator reliability have made me more sensitive to temperature issues. SuggestionL get a refrigerator thermometer and test out your cooling preps.

Mari – at 11:31

Some folks have mentioned using kitty litter to control odor if you have to use buckets for human waste. That’s an unusual prep unless you have cats.

tjclaw1 – at 14:06

Two or three times more Ibuprofin than you think you’ll need. I recently tore a couple of tendons in my shoulder (will probably require surgery) and have used almost all of my ibuprofin preps in 3 weeks. Doc told me to take 800 mg 4x/day, plus 1000 mg vicodin every 6 hours. If you injure yourself (moving around preps), or whatever, think about how you will treat major pain. I’m reserving most of my vicodin for my preps.

05 September 2006

bump – at 00:52

bump

12 September 2006

Kathy in FL – at 10:04

Just because you have a match box doesn’t mean you have a box of matches. <sigh> Found out my husband and son were using the matches to work on some model pieces. — Don’t ask. — and that they were using different boxes of matches.

Turns out, once I condensed all the matches to get rid of the partially filled ones that I had several boxes less than I thought. Also, get some fine sandpaper to keep on hand for when the strip on the sides of the match boxes get used up.

TreasureIslandGalat 10:14

For any veterans… the VA has started stocking Tamiflu now. It is now possible to get a prescription! This is new… they didn’t have any in April of 2006 within their system. I just called the pharmacy to ask today and she confirmed it is now in their pharmacy system.

ALL former military, even without a service-connected disability are eligible to receive medical care at a VA facility. It may take a while to get an appointment if you are less than 50% disabled, but you can get one.

VA prescriptions cost just $7 MAXIMUM!!! -no matter what drug it is for. They also offer a walk-in flu shot clinic. Flu shots are available starting on Oct 2nd this year. Pneumonia shots too, but they require a prescription to get.

13 September 2006

BUMP – at 10:28
OKbirdwatcherat 10:46

TIG at 10:14 - Thanks for that info!!! DH is a veteran.

17 September 2006

FrenchieGirlat 15:14

A spare set of keys (home/car) for each person in the household, to be kept separately from the usual keys (college locker, office, hidden place near work/school); 1 extra spare set located very well hidden outside of the house/flat, for the “boss” of the house. Do not put name or address on the key rings!

DennisCat 15:31

I just got through putting in large cement posts and a gate at the “bottom” of my drive. I would think someone could drive an SUV through it, but it will give me a place to hang my quarantine sign and my wireless driveway alarm. The idea is for social distance. If someone comes to “visit” they will have to stop at the gate instead of driving up and standing in my doorway.

Gary Near Death Valley – at 16:29

DennisC – at 15:31 Speaking of “flu signs” I thought I would premake one, on an old worn sheet of plywood, which only says “FLU”, in large but kinda messy letters on the board and hang on my 6 foot chain link fence,,,,,after a period of time when the flu starts in the area out here. Not too early, but when I am aware of cases in the area, thereby not drawing attention to “that desert bloke is sick”, but just one more in a mess of people in the area. The wife and I do plan to SIP in place, and can do that for a couple of years if needed,,,,,

DennisCat 17:01

Gary- I am not sure what to put on the sign. I was thinking about “Robbed nothing left but the flu”. If the flu hits in the winter- the snow will keep most people without a snow plow from coming to knock on my door. I have those radio driveway alarms. I just want a little notice before someone shows up.

I am somewhat of an “no guns” type, but most people will not know that as they approach. I am somewhat lucky in that there is only one drivable approach to the house- even in a 4 wheeler. I have motion lights on the house and I got me some of those “scarecrow” water sprinklers. They are motion activated and I have them between the driveway and the house. They are feed by a seperate lawn water system so I can add red dye, formic acid and peper oil if needed. I also have planted sting nettles, wild roses, thorns, etc along the outer part of my down hill side and there is no approach from above. That should slow down people if I turn them on. My problem is that I don’t like to think about such things and I don’t really think things will get that bad.

PS- stinging nettles are good in vitamin C as are rose hips.

Gary Near Death Valley – at 17:28

Another thing that I will be doing after the pandemic begins, is not to shave,,,,,,so that I will look real frazzled (hey more than I do now), and will appear that I am not well. Also when I go to the pump house or/and the garage larder for more food and preps to bring to the house, will do this after the sun sets, so wont be showing the extra things I bring into the house. When news of a H2H pandemic begins, overseas (I mean a full blown H2H pandemic not what is going on now), will bring alot of supplies into the house into the spare bedroom and place on the shelves, so will have those and not have to be running back and forth between the garage larder, pump house, and the house. I do not plan to flaunt any preps I have (mum is the word, but I do have lots of extras for close family and neighbors,,,,IF it does get to that point)

18 September 2006

Bump - BB – at 00:28
anonymous – at 01:19

I don’t care how bad it gets, I’m gonna shave

Gary Near Death Valley – at 01:22

anonymous – at 01:19 each to their own,,but the reason I will not shave is too give the appearence of not being well (a 60 year old guy, thats how they look,,,sickly when not shaven) but I wont be going out into any public area at all but the neighbors could see me….and well who wants to hug a whiskery grey haired guy. Not many.

Chesapeake – at 07:07

Hey, I hug one every day.

Dennis in Colorado – at 08:58

Do bear in mind, though, that a full beard is incompatible with a good seal for a face mask (for those who plan to use masks).

History Lover – at 12:26

Treasure Island Girl - Thanks for the info. I sent it to my brother who is a vet.

bgw in MT – at 12:29

When pandemic comes we are told that thorough handwashing is going to be of utmost importance. I’m going to make sure we have a nailbrush beside each lavatory and sink. A nailbrush really helps get your hands and nails as clean as possible.

Nimbus – at 15:05

bgw in MT – at 12:29

Great suggestion regarding nail brushes!

lohrewok – at 20:45

I think this has been brought up before but bears repeating. Make sure you dispose of an extra packaging your preps are coming in. Some of it can be recycled, but it really is surprising how much extra “stuff” there is. When TSHTF, you don’t want to be setting all that trash out, heck if they are even dumping trash at that point.

LauraBat 20:52

Poison Ivy treatment! Both dh and I got it this weekend while doing yard work. I bought some for the kids because one has had it before, but I’ve never had it. Miserable. Glad I had the stuff on hand - Tecnu. A friend who works landscaping says it’s the best stuff he’s used. It definitely has helped.

mj – at 23:09

Windshield wiper replacements. Which led me to think of all the vehicle stuff. And bike parts. Just did a new roof. How is yours? Awful to have it leak during SIP.

blackbird – at 23:58

good ideas, mj. Also plumbing. I recently had something fixed in my house that would have been a BIG problem if happened during SIP.

19 September 2006

amt – at 00:01

eye dropper for measuring out clorox to disinfect water.

Mari – at 00:07

amt – at 00:01 - You’re much better off getting a syringe calibrated in ml and tsp. I got one from my grocery store pharmacy. Drops are out - ml/tsp are in!

20 September 2006

FrenchieGirlat 13:27

Ten days’ worth of baby food in glass pots, per person, in case feeding a sick person with normal food proves difficult.

Dennis in Colorado – at 13:55

FrenchieGirl – at 13:27
Excellent idea. This could be optimized for someone recovering from nausea/vomiting by concentrating on the elements of the old pediatric “BRAT diet:” bananas, rice, applesauce, toast. Substitute saltine crackers for the toast if necessary and you have a good bland diet that can carry a person through 2–3 days.

DennisCat 16:33

FrenchieGirl – at 13:27 I also have some “ensure” for “feeding” a sick person. Not great, but it can you can use a bendable straw if needed.

LauraBat 21:59
DennisCat 22:12

Preps You Might Forget Draino for when my long haired daughters show up.

JV – at 22:14

Chlorox also unclogs drains!

EnoughAlreadyat 23:51

Ensure also makes a pudding. If it isn’t on the shelf, ask the pharmacist. Sometimes it is stored behind the counter, or they can order it for you.

Today I found a product by Gerber called LiquiLytes. It’s an instant ORS for infants, in apple flavor. There are 6 packets in a box, with directions for making 6, 12, 24, and 36 ounces. I plan on using for my grandchildren who aren’t infants, who won’t drink pediolyte, and who probably won’t drink the standard ORS mixture.

21 September 2006

DennisCat 00:01

JV – at 22:14 Chlorox also unclogs drains!

Yes but it can really mess up your septic tank if you use a lot at once.

Kathy in FL – at 11:52

DennisC – at 22:12

We have four long-haird females in this house. Me and our three daughters. Do you know who clogs up the drains more than us? My husband and son. <grin> Wanna know why? I’ll tell you anyway. LOL!

Growing up I was always told to thoroughly brush my hair prior to going to washing it. Two reasons really … (1) it distributes the oils in your hair, and (2) you brush out most of the loose hair so that it doesn’t go down the drain.

Shorter-haired people rarely think to do this. The other thing that gums up the pipes … though I now have a once-a-month schedule of checking all the drains for impending clogs … is soap and shaving scum. That stuff will grab any hair that is going down the drain and really gunk up the works.

Also, never ever poor anything that is greasy down the drain. Aside from the obvious clogging problems, you can also get a odor problem from putting that stuff down the drain. <ick>

Kathy in FL – at 11:55

OK … for my mindless prep of the day. My dustpan broke. Dustpans aren’t a big deal for most people … that’s what a vacuum is for right?

But we our floors are ceramic tile so we sweep a couple times of day and not having a dustpan is a pain.

Also, if the power goes out people will be sweeping their carpets and having a dustpan will mean you won’t have to sweept everything from one end of the house to the other before you can sweep it out the door.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 12:05

SWIFFER!!!!!!

Kathy in OR – at 12:43

The Can Opener Gourmet cook book uses baby food for some of the recipes because it has no additives or preservatives. She has plum sauces and soups using baby food, I plan to use bananas for breads and puddings when SIP. Another item I’m glad to have is the silicone mitts when cooking with fire. They are on the spendy side, 15 to 20 dollars, but I have seen the pot holder type for fewer than 5 dollars at Wally World. Hoping to avoid any bad burns.

KimTat 13:53

Careful, one of the brands of floor cleaners for wood and tile (swiffer?) can cause serous sickness in your pets. I can’t think which one it is now but do some research.

Dennis in Colorado – at 13:56

KimT – at 13:53
Urban Legend. See link below for debunking.
http://www.snopes.com/critters/crusader/swiffer.asp

KimTat 14:00

Thanks Dennis in Colorado – at 13:56 !!!

Diana – at 14:24

Just heard that Walmarts in Florida will be supplying people with Generic drugs on prescription of 30 days for $4….. Only in certain areas, then next year all of Florida. If you are a Floridian check this out.

Diana – at 14:35

Also the other day I saw a lot of flu related things marked in Sale red on the end aisles. Bought a lot of things including something Homeopathic by Hyland for $5. I keep a shopping bag separate for all the flu things like Samubcol and so on. I don’t mix them with anything else. While I have my bare bones items, as a lot of these things are very cheap I am getting duplicates to keep on hand.I bought a new mouse trap put out by Tom Kat which also has a liquid aroma that mice love. Will be setting traps tonight as I’ve seen a few skittering around. They are 3plus at Walmart vs. 4.98 at Shoprite. Also putting a bucket out with water on the bottom, a little stick leading up to another stick which will rotate if the mice try to get the food on it. This for my basement. The darned meese will eat anything, They chewed into plastic bottles of lotions.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 23:12

Kathy in OR – at 12:43 …..but I have seen the pot holder type for fewer than 5 dollars at Wally World

Or $1 at dollar stores.

Kathy in OR – at 23:21

I’m-workin’-on-it at 23:12 …. good old dollar store! Saves money to buy more preps. Thanks for the tip.

24 September 2006

EnoughAlreadyat 12:50

Magic markers and sharpies. I use them all the time to mark and label stuff. I couldn’t find one the other day. (Even use them when a bug bites to monitor spread of swell.)

Also, different sizes of rubber bands.

Kim – at 22:09

Speaking of Sharpies (which I love, and use all the time also), use caution if you decide to get some of those “washable” markers (for your kids or for some other purpose). In my opinion, they’re not very washable at all. I bought some to mark the stud locations on my newly-painted kitchen walls in preparation for hanging the cabinets. I haven’t found anything yet that will take that %&(# off! Soap, magic eraser, TSP, every kind of cleaner I have, nothing touches it. Now I get to repaint the walls (and hope I don’t drip any paint on the new cabinets). Grrrr.

tjclaw1 – at 22:42

Kathy in OR – at 12:43 Yup, gotta get some silicone mits, especially after the ER visit tonight. Tried to take a 400 degree iron skillet out of the oven with a damp cloth mit - heat went right through it. Vicodin is another essential. Hospital gave me SilvaSorb gel, which is supposed to be good for a lot of wounds. Helps keep oxygen out of burn and lasts up to 3 days with 1 application. Highly recommend having some in your medicine stockpile.

Kim – at 22:09 Try some shave cream. That’s what my daughter’s preschool uses to get it off the tables.

mj – at 22:45

Kim, did you try hairspray? Works on ink pens.

25 September 2006

Madamspinner – at 05:19

Lehmans’ Carries wind-up wrist watches !

imajeepster – at 12:30

I bought a locking gas-cap for my vehicle. I have a Coleman dual-fuel stove and if I were to run out of Coleman Fuel I plan to use the gas in my vehicle as back-up…I don’t want anybody else to beat me to it.

NJ Jeeper – at 12:33

You may want to test siphoning gas out of the vehicle. Most newer ones prevent you from doing this. PS ever gone on a Jeep Jamboree USA?

Kathy in FL – at 13:04

Screening that covers your gutters. I’m looking for it right now and wish I would have picked it up in the spring when I saw it originally. <sigh> I do not want to have to go to the trouble of making my own … I’ve got enough to do as it is … but I will if it comes down to it.

My gutters will be an important part of “finding” water in the event that the power goes off.

Also, if your children are used to having flouride in their water … check what is in your local municipal water … you may need to make sure that you have a tooth rinse with flouride in it to keep potential tooth decay at bay.

Annoyed Max- Not mad yet – at 16:38

A product called goof off will remove pretty much any ink if not some of your skin as well. If that doesent do it go to home depot and buy grafitti remover in an aerosol can. There are several brands available usually its a mixture of methanol and other solvents.

heddiecalifornia – at 17:40

I can barely imagine housework without an electric vacuum.

I will need a broom. Someone mentioned a dust pan, above. But if power goes out, and you want to clean your porch, patio and kitchen floor, a broom will be handy. A new one is always most efficient. You can make a dust pan out of duct tape and a small cardboard cereal box.

  Things I remember from my grandmother:   A small wisk broom (hand held size) is also handy for cleaning upholstery, dusting off clothing that can’t be washed, or getting into tight corners.  Very handy if there’s little water. 

  A rug beater or substitute (a baseball bat can be used but is not as effective). Shaking out dust from rugs means less water washing. 

  You can make a floor duster out of a broom stick, a wire coat hanger, acrylic knit material, or acrylic yarn, and duct tape.  
heddiecalifornia – at 17:45

Anybody:

   Any good “solutions” to frequently clogging drains?  

I suspect it is dog hair, as we have huskies, and I get the clogs right after washing throw rugs, etc. or giving them a bath in the shower. ( do put a seive in the drain, and I do shake out the rugs before washing — but it happens.)

I have tried baking powder and hot water. Vinegar and hot water. Both of them at once with hot water.

Liquid plumber doesn’t seem to work. Draino did’t help. Plumber’s “Snake” didn’t clear it. 250.00 minimum for a rooter call, and I would like to avoid that if at all possible.

We don’t have a septic tank — city sewer.

Any suggestions what to use and where to get it? thanks

Carrey in VA – at 17:51

I’ve used drano MAX with really good results (its in a red bottle), when nothing else works that does.

Someone said that bleach will clear a hair clog.

I think the baking soda and vinager is mostly for greasy clogs not hair.

silversage – at 17:55

heddiecalifornia – at 17:40

WOW, memories…..At Officers Training School we cleaned everything with masking tape. I bet we had 100 rolls in the supply closet. We used it on everything from cleaning lint out of the dryer filters to “sweeping” the floor(yardstick with a length of tape halfway attached). I still use tape to get the lint/hair off of table runners,car seats decorative pillows, anything that may be ruined if you threw it in the wash.

Eduk8or – at 18:05

I did an inventory of my preps yesterday and realized that each bottle of Adult Liquid tylenol was only 8 doses worth! So I need to re-evaluate how many of those I stockpile for when an ill person can’t “swallow” pills.

Also room de-ordorizers (Glade- the old fashioned kind that doesn’t need electricity to work!)

Kim – at 18:17

heddiecalifornia, if you’re at all mechanically inclined (or have the money to pay a plumber) consider replacing any cast iron drain pipes with PVC pipe. If you live in an older home you probably have cast iron drain pipe. If you were to cut one of those open, you’d likely find that the opening inside it has narrowed to the thickness of a pencil (or less). There’s just something about cast iron that catches and holds every little bit in your wastewater. PVC pipe is smoother and will take a LOT longer time to clog up like this. It really isn’t difficult, all you need is access to the pipes, a reciprocating saw with carbide blade to cut the cast iron, PVC pipe, and rubber sleeves with pipe clamps to attach the new PVC to any cast iron pipe that’s inaccessible and can’t be replaced. If you do it yourself you can probably get by on less than $100.

NauticalManat 18:49

Seven or eight years ago had tree roots clog sewer line from house to street. Rotor Rooter time. Have been told that copper sulfate/chemicals do not work very well. Anyone have any experience with this problem? Think it will be a good idea to repeat this before TSHTF.

lohrewok – at 19:00

NauticalMan- that happened in our house awhile back. An older home, with trees around it, and the roots basically collasped the main drain line from the house. I was running the washing machine, dishwasher and I don’t know what else at the time it happened, but it all backed up into the house and basically flooded everything with raw sewage. Good golly what a mess. Luckily our insurance paid for cleaning and replacing the carpet (thru the house) and paid for a new drain line in the yard. /word to the wise, check out the condition of your plumbing!

JV – at 19:54

For the last couple of years, all I have used is Chlorox for clogged drains — whether the drain is the bathroom shower or sink, or the kitchen sink. It seems to me that Chlorox clears out organic matter. Correct me if I am wrong. I do not have a septic tank.

I was told that Draino can hurt the drain pipes sometimes.

27 September 2006

The day after tomorrow – at 21:36

what are you going to make with all those dried grains? Do you have the recipes? Is there anything you forgot? If you had to cook over a fire pit could you? Lentils IMHO are terriable, try instead split peas, navy beans, northern beans. I am putting away some canned chicken and ham, I plan on making alot of soups.

Surprise gifts and crafts for the kids for somewhere in the duration of SIP.

If you had a lot of free time right now at home what would you like to do? Is this something that could keep you busy during SIP? Do you have the materials you need. What books did you say if I had the time I’d love to read that one, do you have them yet?

Try to think about what you might miss the most or long for after you’ve been away from society for awhile dental floss, chocolate, jelly to go with all that peanut butter, a glass of wine? Whatever it might be that soothes your soul make sure that you have pleanty of it on hand.

LizJat 22:07

For clearing clogged drains you will also want a ball-type plunger and a drain auger. You can get these at hardware stores.

01 October 2006

Carrey in VA – at 12:40

My kids have been playing with sidewalk chalk alot these last few days. Its really cheap at the dollar general. Something like 12 sticks for $1. We will be stocking up on that for SIP. If you have a patio or a deck and small children you might wanna look for it too. Even my eldest (14) likes to go outside and draw with it.

Birdie – at 13:43

Carrey in VA – at 12:40 I don’t think going outside during SIP is wise, especially to go outside and draw on the patio. The ground is the worlds worst for germs. Gravity and H5N1 airborne, deadly combo. You might want to reconsider. Read the thread, “going outside during SIP”. Prepmatic made some pretty impressive points, that were later backed up by a news source, I think you will find that under aerosol something or another (sorry, cannot remember the exact name for the thread).

KimTat 13:47

I had a big chalk board in the house when the kids were young, we had a lot of fun using it, and I used it for messages, teaching and tick-tac-to.

I have white boards now for leaving messages and reminder lists.

Carrey in VA – at 13:52

Personally I’m not too concerned with going outside on our patio or deck. We live very rurally, so no worries of catching things from people. And I’m not worried too much anymore about catching the flu from birds. I will have the kiddos wash thier hands and spray their shoes with lysol, but other than that, staying in the house for a year isn’t really feasable.

KimTat 13:55

I remember teaching all the neigborhood kids how to play hopscotch, jump rope.. and all the other kids games years ago…don’t they teach these things anymore? Anyway you can now get these things that you could roll out on the floor for hopscotch for inside or out, I bought this big pack of playing cards at sams club a while ago, I thought about learning how to crochet again, all I ever managed to do in the past is a big long chain.

Jump ropes are cheap entertainment too, playing telephone with can and string, jax, marbles

Carrey in VA – at 17:47

KimT,

I bought a set of games from toysRus not long ago that had marbles, pick up sticks and jacks all in tin cans and shrink wrapped together. They were VERY cheap like 5$ for all three games. It had the rules to all the games too. Who knew there were so many different rules for marbles? lol

EnoughAlreadyat 19:35

The day after tomorrow – at 21:36

“I plan on making alot of soups”

Me too!!! I found some dry “red” lentils the other day at a local market. I have never seen them before. Look like split peas, except red. (Said lentils on the package.) I bought a package… and thought I’d try to figure out what they were! I’ve been dehydrating a whole lot of vegetables to put into these soups to enhance nutritional value. Also, I have been stocking up on ABC noodles… to add to some of my soups. Soups can be made into such a wide variety of different meals by changing the stock, thickening agent, spices, herbs, meats, vegetables and/or starches. I even use some basic canned soups, like bean with bacon, to add to beans (like navy beans). Also, V-8 juice adds a nice taste to soups. I’m always on the look-out for soup additives and soup recipes.

Birdie – at 19:50

Carrey in VA – at 13:52

Your area makes it condusive to playing with chalk outside, mine however does not. I live 2 miles from a hospital, scary. Carrey, another prep I picked up at the dollor store, playdough, the kids seem to have a ball with it (no pun intended..LOL) even the teenagers :o)

Birdie – at 19:52

EnoughAlready – at 19:35

If I may ask you a question, is it [possible to can meats without a pressure canner? Thanks.

Carrey in VA – at 20:44

Birdie - at 19:52

Your right a city would be bad enough, but close to a hospital would be so much worse. Yes playdough is always good, I like to play with it too LOL. I love to color in coloring books too LMFAO

Bird Guano – at 20:56

Birdie – at 19:52

EnoughAlready – at 19:35

If I may ask you a question, is it [possible to can meats without a pressure canner? Thanks.


NO

You will kill yourself.

Prepping Gal – at 21:06

Lentils take very little time should you forget to presoak all the other beans overnight. I use them in soups, chilis, enchiladas etc. especially if I’m in a hurry. You can get dried instant lentils, canned lentils, red, yellow and green lentils in bulk. They are very versatile and healthy as are the other beans. These just happen to be the ‘quick’ bean in our house besides the fact that we really like them.

Jane – at 21:21

I use red lentils to make kedgeree. Other ingredients are white rice, then in a frying pan saute an onion, when it’s getting golden brown, add coriander seeds and cumin (both in ground form) to heat up and get fragrant. Then warm up the rice and lentils in the frying pan and mix together. (btw, when cooked, the lentils turn yellow.) I cook the rice and lentils together. If it’s white rice, then the rice gets really done. If it’s brown rice, the lentils fall apart. I guess it would be possible to add the quicker-cooking ingredient later, but I haven’t. :/

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 22:10

Here’s one for your list — a comfortable rain gear outer suit made by Frogg Toggs that you put on over your regular clothes. I’m not involved with the company — but I sure wish I was!

If you’ve got to be out in the rain for any reason, from chopping wood to playing golf, a set of Frogg Toggs are in order to keep you DRY! They breathe well, smush up into a small wad for easy storage, come in colors as well as camo print, have all the conveniences like easy access to your OWN pants pockets, zip at the ankles so that they slip over your shoes — you can pack ‘em in a pocket to take to a ballgame where you might get rained on & if it starts raining, you can easily slip the jacket & pants over what you’re wearing including shoes in just seconds without having to take clothes or shoes off.

I vacuumed sealed 2 sets & keep ‘em in the first aid kit in my car trunk.

You can find them at sporting goods stores, but look on ebay for deals.

02 October 2006

Madamspinner – at 00:44

I quilt, knit, crochet and spin my own wool; so to keep me from going “stir-crazy” during a SIP situation, I have stocked up on all my crafty stuff. On wool alone, I have almost 150 pounds of wool, that’s ready-to-spin ! Extra parts for my spinning wheels, copies of patterns, rolls of batting, thread, etc. I will finally have the time to learn how to knit a very intricate lace shawl in a laceweight wool !…and if THAT doesn’t make me crazy— NOTHING will ! LOL !!

EnoughAlreadyat 09:30

Jane – at 21:21

Thanks! That recipe sounds goooood! I looked it up on internet… it’s a traditional English recipe (breakfast) that originated & was adapted from a dish from India. I just love eating food with a history!! Now, I can add… collected on fluwiki from Jane! :)

EnoughAlreadyat 09:36

Madamspinner – at 00:44

spinning wheels--- well, now I know how you came up with your name! That is just awesome! I come from a sewing family, but nobody had a spinning wheel! I’ve put up needle work in my preps. I took a lace making course years ago, and swore I’d never do it again after I got through that class. :( I love to sew… on a sewing machine. I’ve put up bolts of material, etc. In case and in hopes there is electricity! (Thinking may need to make masks, feminine products, and aprons!)

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 09:43

Madamspinner – at 00:44 I’m glad to see you out and about on the board here too. What an art to have mastered! It’s great knowing something that you enjoy doing is something that you can also do during SIP. I need to work on re-developing my SIP hobbies of choice more….reading would be first on the list. Love your name!

crfullmoon – at 10:30

How much Chlorox might clear a drain without killing a septic tank?

(Sorry if dumb question - I avoided bleach for years before buying it for H5N1. Still not comfortable using the stuff.)

katherine – at 10:50

Kim – at 22:09

Someone probably helped with this already but just in case……My three year old wrote all over the wallpaper of a house we were renting with dry erase markers. I was able to remove it with fingernail polish remover.

katherine – at 10:53

Kim – at 22:09

Someone probably helped with this already but just in case……My three year old wrote all over the wallpaper of a house we were renting with dry erase markers. I was able to remove it with fingernail polish remover.

Dennis in Colorado – at 11:00

A prep I had not considered before using my new generator this weekend:
A funnel to use when adding/changing the engine oil.

crfullmoon – at 11:31

(Lamp oil probably also goes better into lanterns with a designated pump and funnel.)

Madamspinner – at 17:32

Don’t forget some fly poison ! I got some no-name granules from the feed store…that doesn’t work very well….so I tossed it and hunted down some GOLDEN MALERIN…looks just like bee pollen granules…but must have an attractant in it…and it kills flies FAST.

If the BF does what we think it will…we will have a Ba-ZILLION flies.

Dennis in Colorado – at 19:05

Madamspinner – at 17:32
From the Texas Cooperative Extenstion (Texas A&M):
“Golden Malrin (Starbar Corp.) is a fly bait containing 1.1% methomyl and 0.049% (Z)−9-Tricosene (muscalure) and is applied at a scatter rate of 8 oz per 1,000 square feet. It has restricted use around confined animal facilities, and care needs to be taken not to contaminate animal feedstuffs. Use only in areas inaccessible to food-producing animals, children, and pets. It cannot be used in milking parlors.”
http://tinyurl.com/gw8ym

Madamspinner – at 19:23

Dennis in CO—

Yes, Dear, I know all this. ;-) LOL !

I was raised on a dairy farm. I can stand alot of “things”; but flies and rats are 2 that I can’t. I have used the Golden Malrin in the past with excellant results. It “should” be standard knowledge when using ANY poison, for people to keep it out of the reach of kids, pets, etc. But you never know with some peoples…

I tested the no-name junk outside my windows; the summer storms were driving the blasted flies inside with a vengence; but that stuff was crap. Then I hunted down the good stuff.

Thanks for the url, tho !

Madamspinner – at 19:28

I found my receipt for the fly bait I tossed. It was the Quick Bayt, mentioned at that url. It was 8.95 for a 1 lb can. Ok if you can’t get anything else; but I’ll stick with my first choice.

Madamspinner – at 19:29

I found my receipt for the fly bait I tossed. It was the Quick Bayt, mentioned at that url. It was 8.95 for a 1 lb can. Ok if you can’t get anything else; but I’ll stick with my first choice.

It’s also a red-hot pink color that stains everything it touches if it gets wet.

SaddleTrampat 20:44

Crfullmoon - don’t know about bleach clearing drains, esp. with septic systems, but the last time we had to have someone come work on our plumbing, the guy said the best thing he even found was to use a box of baking soda chased with a bottle of Coke or other soft drink. Said it worked every time. We havent needed a plumber since.

06 October 2006

EnoughAlreadyat 20:36

Buttermilk, or sour milk… feeds the “bugs” in a septic tank. The “bugs” are what make the syestem work. A chemist uses this method religiously! ;)

cottontop – at 21:44

we use a funnel for our kersone heater. Got tired of that plactic hose thingy. the funnel is tied to the container with bread ties.

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 22:48

Things I got today that I had almost forgotten and recommend to anyone else who may be equally forgetful - lots of extra shoelaces. a landline phone. A camera for the computer so that we can see some loved ones (who also have computer cameras) during sip…

Prepping Gal – at 23:39

I’m baking bread again & not in my bread machine. I updated my baking pans for bread, pies, squares & cakes. I figure if I have to use alternative fuel sources I might need some heavy duty pans.

Finally found some vital wheat gluten that I can add if need be. In Julia Child’s book The Way to Cook she recommends having it on hand in case the type of flour you are forced to use is low gluten; by the way she says 1/3 cup wheat gluten flour to 3 cups of your main flour.

Stocked up on fresh lemons since they are a natural enhancing leavening for bread.

Does anyone know if they still make plastic for the Decasonic Food Sealer; I have one that I used for my flour and while I have two more rolls of plastic I haven’t seen it in the stores. I don’t want to buy the Food Saver. I also used some commercial grade plastic food storage bags to seal sugar etc. and then sealed in buckets; seemed to work well and is so cheap. Any comments on use of these bags.

I ended up throwing out about 100 pounds of flour that I had on hand which was not sealed and I had for 2 or 3 years. I didn’t realize until I came to this website that flour could become rancid. Funny thing was until I bought fresh I didn’t know that what I was smelling was a rancid smell; my husband thought the flour was fine as well. I do think in a pinch I would have used it because it wasn’t bad smelling or tasting; just tasted off.

08 October 2006

Bird Guano – at 00:42

Energy drinks.

RockStar, Redline, etc.

With lots of caffeine.

For when you NEED to stay awake for several days.

I got several cases today.

cottontop – at 00:48

staying awake for several days is a bad idea in my book. I’ve seem how this has affected people in an emergency situation. Bad idea.

just outside the box – at 13:07

Eletromechanical “shake n bake” LED flashlights, Wal-Mart and elsewhere, LED’s are supposed to be good for 10,000hrs.

Dogfood, hey if the poor elderly really do use it as a dietary staple why not, we’re talking about the possibility of extreme survival (+ 3 months to forever) conditions right? Maybe not balanced specifically for humans, but so far as I know it’s nutritionally denser that cerial grains monkey or even hog chow might be better. Keep dry and store in metal rodent proof cans.

Sailor – at 13:52

Prepping Gal – at 23:39

Have you been able to locate a distributor for Grain Mills in Alberta? Thanks

new name – at 14:36

Can anyone tell me how long flour will keep if it is stored in vacuum sealed bags? How about Bread Flour and also Whole wheat flour? Thanks alot.

crfullmoon – at 14:45

new name, (I should know where this is on the Flu Wiki, but, ) I know where the flour storage issues thread is over at CurEvents .

Prepping Gal – at 17:00

Sailor I checked out Ribtor’s yesterday and got a couple of coffee grinders but not any grain mills. I didn’t see any and they were so busy I didn’t even ask. I saw online I think it was Berry Hill had the Country Grain Mill (which I read was a quality mill) but holy smokes it was $750.00. I think I saw a couple at the Community Health Food store in Calgary but that was 6 months ago and I wasn’t considering mills seriously. I’ll keep lookin. Where would I get wheatberries in large volume say 50 pound bags reasonably priced or any other grains? I was thinking of going to UFA; again I believe Community Health Food store near Chinook had some but I suspect they are expensive there. I don’t want to go the mill route but if things are that bad then its nice to source these items out ahead of time.

Olymom – at 19:38

Several people have posted positive reviews of a grain grinder called something like “Country New Life grinder” — I searched ebay for one and it looked great — but was still a spendy $200 (and bidding wasn’t over).

Somewhere on fluwiki is a hilarious account from a woman who requested a grinder as a gift. She got precisely what she asked for and it ended up being the demon machine from hell. Sounds like a grain grinder is an item to research very carefully. You might look at “Lehman’s” too (country store on line)

Sailor – at 19:42

Prepping Gal – at 17:00

If you are looking for wheat just phone around to some of your local farmers and ask if they planted wheat this year. If they did they would likely sell you some right out of the bin but you would have to clean it by screaning it to remove weeds etc. You may be able to get cleaned wheat from a farmer that sells seed grains. You should be able to purchase 50 lbs from a farmer for around 5$. You will likely have to supply your own bags etc. if you get it from the Bin.

Princess Auto had some cheap ( 15$) manual grain grinders earlyer in the summer which were made in china, but will work hopefully in a pinch but would still like to get a good one from some where in Alberta.

temp man – at 19:49

How about heavy duty Bolt cutters? You may have to go through some locks in an emergency.

InKyat 19:53

Re grain mills, there’s a most helpful discussion on the Grains thread.

09 October 2006

dc – at 18:40

Vermont Country Store- online or by catalog- has non-electric sweepers (like used in restaurents, hoipitals etc) for about $65

If electric grid down- For those of us with carpet and animals, horrified by the thought of all those hairs not be vacumed- this could be the answer. Mine is in the mail, on its way.

orange-brown – at 20:36

Spices

I got a ton of spices for half price today. Funny how that makes me happy! :)

10 October 2006

Jane – at 16:14

On another thread someone mentioned maybe not being able to get new glasses. A magnifying glass could help someone see even with a too-weak prescription. Maybe a back-up, too, since they’re fragile.

MLKatyat 18:06

Don’t know if anybody has mentioned these items, but you may want to have some extra print cartridges on hand with extra paper for your printers (if we have the luxury of power for awhile), also today I picked up some “window slide stops” (locks) that fit on the frames of windows so they will only open as far as you want. I live where we worry about heat, not cold, but do not want my windows open all the way while we are sleeping, I think I would rather hear someone breaking the window, than just quitely removing screen & opening. Also for those that have food in 5 or 6 gal food grade buckets, don’t forget the heavy duty plastic wrench to open them, $1.97 @ Lowe’s, the window locks were $2.47 for 2. One more thing - a boat horn for warning/alarm when electricity is off - about $10.00 @ wal-Mart.

11 October 2006

BUMP – at 08:00

14 October 2006

FrenchieGirlat 17:55

A knife sharpener.

Kim – at 21:58

MLKaty, where did you find those window locks?

Jane – at 22:13

Instead of window locks, you can drill a hole through the window frame of a double-hung window (both top and bottom sections) when the window is closed and when the window is opened a few inches. Then put a long nail through the holes for the level you want to secure. The hole can be slanted downward a bit if you want, but we’ve never had the nails fall out of our level holes.

Jane – at 22:19

(We put holes on both sides of the window.)

15 October 2006

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 10:42

Kim - I am using window locks found in child safety section of stores. I think I got mine at hardware store or Wal Mart. Inexpensive and they work.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 12:28

Yesterday I bought 2 different types of solar battery chargers off ebay, and also 2 solar floodlights. I don’t think the floodlights will “flood” the yard with light, but if they’re as good as my incandescent light bulbs for a little while when the motion thingie trips, that’ll be great! The seller and them listed as either a buy it now or make them an offer so I made an offer for all four things, and sort of offered a lower price than I normally would have if I had just been buying one or two things, since I figured he’d be making more money with me buying 4, and he accepted my deeper discounted price on all four pieces!!

Irene – at 13:15

Be sure to test your solar charger. Mine didn’t charge the D rechargeable batteries I bought separately.

Kim – at 18:03

Thanks all for the tips on the window locks. I found some at KMart today and bought 2 sets for $2.49 a set (4 locks total). We just put in new aluminum thermal windows and although I knew of the old “screw in the track” trick, I was reluctant to be drilling holes in these brand new windows.

All these little locks are are a piece of channel aluminum (and a rubber piece that sits inside it) that is tightened onto the window track with a thumbscrew. If one had aluminum windows and didn’t want to fool with these locks, it would be easy enough to drill and tap a hole in the window track just for the thumbscrew… tighten the thumbscrew down so it protrudes into the track to prevent opening too far, then unscrew so it’s flush with the inside of the track when you want to throw the windows wide open. Thanks again!

23 October 2006

Madamspinner – at 18:08

Not only get tools to sharpen knives and axes: stones, strops, honing powder, files, steels; But LEARN NOW how to use them.

Protein powder to fulfill the protein requirements. The average person needs 60 grams of protein per day. I have had a gastric bypass, and have already “taste-tested” MANY brands.

Isopure Brand is expensive BUT—THE BEST: tasting, dissolves INSTANTLY, you can add many flavors to it. They make many flavors, but I use the Vanilla as a base and add different flavors to it: fruit, extracts, peanut butter,cocoa powder etc.

And it’s gives you 50 grams per 2 scoops. Comes in 3 lb jugs and 7.5 pounds buckets.

I only make up 1 scoop at a time, twice a day; because you NEVER want to MIX ANY protein powder up and let it set more then 30 minutes, AND the body can only absorb about 30 grams of it at a time.

Petticoat Junction – at 18:28

From the “mundane but potential sanity saver” category:

I was thinking through kids’ activities to SIP yesterday and suddenly had a picture of the electricity being down, the kids sitting at the table with an entire end-roll of newsprint paper and a stack of coloring books…and all the colored pencils wearing down/breaking.

Those little dime-sized plastic sharpeners are not going to cut it and SIP is not the time to frustrate kids (or mom!) further. I’m off to find a good old-fashioned wall-mount manual pencil sharpener (actually, I do believe my parents have an unused one in their basement).

(This way they won’t have any excuse not to finish their math, either. ;o)

Dennis in Colorado – at 18:30

Madamspinner – at 18:08 … you NEVER want to MIX ANY protein powder up and let it set more then 30 minutes,

What is the reason for that?

Madamspinner – at 18:39

This is because the protein starts to break down after about 30 minutes w/no refrigeration ( and the body needs that protein BEFRE it gets “old” )

 and also because that protein base is a PERFECT medium for bacteria to grow.  The labs actually use a layer of pure protein in the petri dishes to grow some things.   

As long as you drink it as soon as you mix it up, no problems.

anonymous – at 19:12

Small children grow very fast. Might want to have the next sizes of important things decided upon so as a last minute prep they can be bought for stashing. I am thinking specifically shoes and clothes for staying warm would be very important to have fit. Also diapers (personally I used cloth, so I could just change the fold size as they grew; rubber pants needed to be upsized though). For any new mothers who might be nursing, anticipation of how to deal with mastitis might be really appreciated. It REALLY hurts! (probably need prescription discussion with OB-GYN).

Birth control considerations are prudent for many ages.

And on a lighter note, I am addicted to lemons, which will be a real problem since even the liquid concentrate needs to be refrigerated after being opened (we are not planning to count on having power). We are getting restaurant size (individual serving size) packages of lemon juice and mayonaise to deal with that no fridge issue.

LEG – at 19:12

sorry - cleaned cookines last night and dropped my AUTHORship.

Pixie – at 19:47

LEG - at 19:12 “ We are getting restaurant size (individual serving size) packages of lemon juice and mayonaise to deal with that no fridge issue.”

Where are you finding those? I’d also like to get the little individual cellophane envelopes of oyster crackers for soup, but so far I’ve had no luck in finding the restaurant size packets for any of those things.

Carrey in VA – at 19:56

Pixie – at 19:47

 I know that Sams has individual packages of mayo and ketchup, I wonder if they have the lemon juice too?  And I’m pretty sure I’ve seen the little packs of oyster crackers there, over with the normal crackers.  
Chesapeake – at 19:57

LEG- have you tried True Lemon? http://tinyurl.com/6bk5z

LEG – at 20:07

Thanks Chesapeake! I sent for the samples the website offers.

Carrey in VA - Sam’s is where we are getting the mayo; using a restaurant supplier for the lemon juice packets (unless this True Lemon works out).

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 20:09

Hey Chesapeake — since you mentioned it here, YOU can get free samples too — if you’ll go to their Community section it tells you what to do.

I sent for a sample as well. Thanks.

Pixie – at 20:19

Thanks LEG & Carrey in VA. I’ve tried Costco & BJ’s but will venture to Sam’s!

Chesapeake – at 20:19

I picked some up on sale at my local grocery store to flavor my ORS packets. It is good stuff. Grab them when they go on sale. I have not tried the lime. Free Samples are good.

econ101 – at 20:22

temporairy cavity tooth filler

Dennis in Colorado – at 20:31

Madamspinner – at 18:39
Thanks for the explanation. I thought perhaps you were referring to some deleterious effect attributable just to the dissolving of the protein powder in the carrier liquid. I use homemade protein drinks almost every day for breakfast and lunch (2 cans of sugar-free/caffeine-free soft drink + 1 scoop of GNC whey protein powder + 1 ounce cream). I often make them the night before; they are sealed in 1-liter water bottles and refrigerated. I certainly agree that they ought not to be left open & unrefrigerated after they are made. Whey protein powder is also part of our prep pantry.

mj – at 21:41

True Lemon and True Lime are great. Our diabeties instructor suggested them at a meeting and had coupons. Comes in packets and a “salt shaker” type jar at our local Krogers. Cook with it, season, drinks. No fat, no sugar, good stuff. Got the lemon juice packets (at GFS) before I found true lemon. The packets have use by dates.

mj – at 21:42

I mean the liquid juice packets have earlier dates than the true lemon.

Pixie – at 21:52

The website says the True Lemon (they also have True Lime) is good for 2 years. Thanks for the heads up on it Chesapeake!

tjclaw1 – at 23:19

I ordered the free True Lemon samples. Thanks for the tip!

FriscoParentat 23:35

Watchout for high sodium levels in protein powders.. especially for those of you with high blood pressure.

24 October 2006

Mari – at 08:40

Irene – at 13:15 - The instructions that came with my solar battery charger said that rechargeable batteries should be charged all the way with a plug in charger a couple of cycles before expecting them to charge well with the solar charger.

Dennis in Colorado – at 09:04

FriscoParent – at 23:35 Watchout for high sodium levels in protein powders

I don’t know about other brands of whey protein, but the GNC product I use has only 120mg sodium per serving.

Analyst4mkts – at 09:24

Portion Packages

Here is a link to where you can order just about any condiment under the sun in either pouches or small jars. I have not ordered from them yet as prices seem a bit high for me but you can get a great array of product/brands here.

The link is http://tinyurl.com/y743op

They do have wholesale pricing available on orders exceeding $250. If anyone orders from them, let us know what kind service do they provide.

Chesapeake – at 10:22

OK, just checked my whey protein, Designer Whey, only 110mg sodium per serving.

MissBlissat 11:09

Something that we are getting now that the storm has passed (we were without power for a week) will be a water powered back up base pump for our sump pump. When the power went down, my sump pump stopped running. A back up is water powered, works like a syphon, and keeps the basement dry when power is out. For those with sump pumps, it should be a helpful addition (pricey, but better than losing everything in the basement!)

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 11:18

Wow! Lots of good info here….thanks to Irene & Mari for asking and answering about the solar charger - I didn’t know that and don’t even have any rechargeable batteries yet, so I’ll buy some & a regular charger as well!

That condiments list is AWESOME!!! I’ll be ordering some of that too, and packing some of that away with our MRE’s!

My husband’s GNC 100% whey protein has 150mg sodium….gotta watch that stuff!

Dennis in Colorado – at 13:53

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 11:18 My husband’s GNC 100% whey protein has 150mg sodium….gotta watch that stuff!

Everyone’s tolerance for sodium is different … but most would not consider 150mg for a full meal to be a high amount. For someone on a diet restricted to 2gm of sodium, 150mg would only be 20% of their daily allowance. If ya wanna look at high sodium foods, check sour cream & onion flavored potato chips, at 1238mg for a 7 oz bag — or SPAM at 1533mg for 4 oz <grin>.

By the way, a wide array of nutrient values of many food items can be found at
http://www.nal.usda.gov/fnic/foodcomp/search/

Tuck57 – at 14:23

Havn’t followed this thread so I hope I not repeating Don’t forget footwear. I recommend at least a pair of good hikers. Better still would be gor-tex hunting boots that are water-proof in case you have to walk long distances for some reason. The footwear needs to be broke-in ahead of time so that blister are a major problem,. Don’t forget good socks also.

Tuck57

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 14:57

Tuck57 that’s very important — you’re right! That’s one area you don’t want to scrimp in!

PBQ – at 15:19

I just bought 6 pairs of wool military socks. Cheap and warm!

lohrewok – at 19:44

Cabela’s had a huge bin of wool socks for $1.99. Great price.

PBQ – at 19:47

Wish we had a Cabela’s nearby.

Prepping Gal – at 21:59

I’m in the process of renewing my Canadian passport. I don’t plan to do any travelling but I decided that having that flexibility might be worthwhile even in a pandemic. Crossing between Canada and the USA is getting more difficult and that may be in both directions. I think it’s something to be considered.

25 October 2006

HillBilly Bill – at 06:00

Dishpans. Not only for doing dishes, but also for washing up when water is limited. Remember to get double the amount, one for soapy water and one for rinsing. It’s a good idea to do a practice drill and remember to save all waste water for flushing.

Closed and Continued - Bronco Bill – at 10:06

Thread getting long, so closed and continued here

Last relevant post copied to new thread

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Books for Kids

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Books for Kids

19 October 2006

Kim – at 22:44

I’m looking for book suggestions for my just-turned-7 year old grandson (he reads at at least 2nd-3rd grade level). I’d like to hear recommendations on books that will encourage self-reliance, ingenuity, and creative thinking, and some survival skills thrown in would be nice too. Any ideas?

20 October 2006

Kim – at 09:26

I’m bumping this because I really would like some suggestions. I’m gonna make sure my grandson has a “prepping kind of mind”, and I figure that books that expose him to those ways of thinking will help.

Malachi – at 09:54

Gary Paulson books are cool like that.One about a boy in Alaska.can’t recall the name.Also the little house books.

LauraBat 10:13

Costco and some other discounters have had a whole “classics” series for younger children/readers at his level. 10000 Leagues Under the Sea, etc. Several in there are good examples of ppeople sticking it out. It’s a great collection anyway and reasonably priced. And definitely the Little House series. Even boys like them despite that the main characters are girls! n

Oh yeah - the whole Tree House series too - great history lessons mixed in with adventure.

Edna Mode – at 10:44

Sign of the Beaver by Elizabeth George Speare

Lost on a Mountain in Maine by Donn Fendler (true story)

Anything by Gary Paulsen is outstanding, but in particular: Tucket’s Travels: Francis Tucket’s Adventures in the West, 1847–1849 (age appropriate but some scary, historically accurate things, so may need to read with the child); Hatchet; Brian’s Winter, Brian’s Hunt, Brian’s Return

Does he like watching documentaries and docudramas? (My kids do.) If so, check out the PBS series Colonial House and 1900s House. There are families with children in these (Colonial House has a boy about 8 or 9; 1900s house a boy about the same age or a little older). Frontier House had kids, too, but many of the adults were so whiny I wanted to mute the show. Most recent show is Texas Ranch House. I haven’t seen this one yet. You can rent all of these from Netflix.

Edna Mode – at 10:46

Also, Kim, you don’t need to buy these new. I bought the entire collection of Gary Paulsen books (about 25 I think) plus a collection of 50 Newbery Award books from eBay for a FRACTION of the cost of buying new.

Tiger Lily – at 10:49

Little Bear’s Outdoor Adventure Guide for the All-American Boy written by Richard “Little Bear” Wheeler.

Warning: The entire first half of the book is dedicated to tanning, trapping, deadfalls and snares.

Starting on page 120 he provides instructions (sketches included)for constructing camp lanterns, how to find your way by the stars, what to do when lost, crickets as thermometers, waterproofing matches, how to make charred cloth for flint and steal, how to tie knots, (and more). Finally a whole chapter about shelters and cabins.

You can look at the All American Boy catalogue at Vision Forum (faith based organization…I am not affiliated with them but I am a satisfied customer)or you can buy the book at Amazon.

Pixie – at 10:58

Boys adventure novels? The classic novels of G.A. Henty were written 100 years ago by a grandfather who began what became a series of more than 40 published novels by telling great adventure stories to his grandchildren. The books are particularly great for boys, since each features a corageous boy hero full of resourcefullness and chivalry.

Each book is set in a specific historical time period: Ancient Egypt, the Middle Ages, Age of Exploration, colonial era, Napoleonic era, Victorian era, etc. They are a great way to learn quite a lot about history, too.

The books would make great read-alouds for your 7yo grandson shortly, and the general reading-alone level is geared for modern children who are probably around 13–15 years old.

All of the newly republished books can be purchesed here, http://tinyurl.com/y2ua4h “The All American Boys Adventure Catalog” (some Christian content), and many of them can be found in other locations too, some at Amazon, http://tinyurl.com/y2usx3. Some of the books are also available on audio CD, and there is also a small book that describes the topics and historical era that each Henty book covers, entitled “The Boys Guide to the Historical Adventures of G.A. Henty” which I have found to be very handy.

Miss Spider – at 12:25

Although I can’t vouch for their educational strengths, most 7 yr old boys I’ve met LOVE the “Captain Underpants” series. They might be good for some comic relief. ALso “The Boxcar Children” and “The Magic Treehouse” series. The Magic Treehouse books could be read alone or as a fread-aloud.

Kim – at 20:39

Thanks everyone for your great suggestions, PLEASE keep them coming! I went to Barnes & Noble last night to look for some books for him, and realized as I stood there looking at those rows of books that I had NO idea of what to get him. I finally ended up with the “Young Reader” (kind of a condensed version, I guess) versions of Tom Sawyer, Oliver Twist, and Robinson Crusoe. Figured I couldn’t go wrong with the classics, and hopefully will appeal to a young boy. I do want to buy more, though.

Even though I was a tomboy as a kid, #1 it’s too far back in the Stone Age for me to remember what I liked to read, and #2 I was a tomboy, not a boy, so don’t know if stuff I would’ve liked will have the same appeal (would a boy like Nancy Drew??? Probably not.)

I remember reading on various threads books that folks (mostly men) had read as kids that made a big impact on them, but in searching the threads for *kids books* I came up with hundreds of threads listed, just too much to go searching through. So if you remember a book that had a big impact on you as a young boy, or your sons have favorites, please post! Thanks!

Sthrn Tr – at 21:08

I am a teacher and children’s book reviewer.

Here are some outstanding male children’s authors and their main genres. I’ll begin with adventure.

In addition to Gary Paulsen, there’s Scott O’Dell (adventure), Christopher Paul Curtis (historical fiction), Richard Peck (humor), Lois Sachar (humor), Robert Newton Peck (SOUP series), Lloyd Alexander (fantasy), Robert Westall (mystery), William Steig (humor), C.S. Lewis (fantasy for children), Todd Strasser/Chris Crutcher/Jerry Spinelli (contemporary fiction).

You can read their chapter books aloud to your grandson.

seacoast – at 21:19

The Hardy Boys are still good. Number the Stars by Lois Lowry is a Newberry winner and is Excellent and don’t forget Charlotte’s Web. Second graders love the Henry & Mudge series and is a nice addition that they can read themselves. There is a new book out called Clementine by Sara Pennypacker that is getting rave reviews. I have read it and it about a great, creative kid with a touch of ADHD…ok, fine, she is quite ADHD but you love her, and the best part is she comes from a family that is NOT disfunctional! Most of the books mentioned earlier will have to be read to your 7 year old, but he should be able to read the Captain Underpants series if he is a good reader. Captain Underpants is about bathroom humor and right up a 2–3 grade boys’s alley.

Kim – at 21:40

ohh, the Hardy Boys series, the “male” version of Nancy Drew (I think?). These suggestions are just wonderful, now maybe I won’t feel like such an idiot trying to pick something out. Keep them coming… I’ll check out ebay too so I won’t have to break the bank to aquire all these great titles!

Edna Mode – at 23:35

Sthrn Tr – at 21:08

All great suggestions.

Kim, Here’s another couple of suggestions that our family loves. First, My Father’s Dragon. There are actually three stories that you can buy as a single-bound trilogy. I guarantee 100% that your grandson will looove these stories, whether he read them himself or you read them with him. The author is Ruth Stiles Gannett. They are pure fantasy about a little boy rescuing a baby dragon on a faraway island. He packs a little duffle with odds and ends (lollipops, rubber bands, tangerines) and uses every single item at the perfect moment to negotiate his way to success.

Another series geared to a little older reading level but perfectly appropriate for read aloud to a 7 year old is the Indian in the Cupboard books. There are four or five of them, and they are terrific. I think the mark of good children’s lit is when the story is engaging enough to hold the adult’s attention as well as the child’s. The series is by Lynne Reid Banks. Which reminds me…we picked up our set of these books from our library book sale, which is ongoing in the basement of our library. I found absolute treasures there for $0.25 a book. Don’t forget to check out the library sales.

Neat aside: When we got home with our bags of books, we found a letter from Lynne Reid Banks inside one of the books with her signature on it. She was corresponding with a class from our school about 20 years ago, someone tucked it inside the book and forgot it was in there. My son has it in his treasure box.

Edna Mode – at 23:37

My subject/verb agreement is nonexistent…goodnight everyone… :)

23 October 2006

EnoughAlreadyat 00:04

Hatchet, by Gary P.

Where the Red Fern Grows

Red Badge of Courage

Chronicles of Narnia

A Wrinkle In Time

The Mixed-Up Files of Mrs. Basil E. Frankweiler

Yearling

Call It Courage

Sounder

Anything about: snakes, how stuff works, juggling, magic tricks, sports hereos, “Ready, Freddy”

24 October 2006

spam – at 12:41

Homeschooling:

I found this great PDF with easy to do education with items laying around, its mostly on science, health etc, download it! :)

http://vidyaonline.net/arvindgupta/vsoscience.pdf

Kathy in FL – at 12:57

OK … you can probably find these at yard sales and used book stores.

Also, check out 1000 Good Books List that is broken down by author and reading level.

And at this index you can find some educational material to go along with a lot of popular books, including both modern and classic stories.

Kenpofemme – at 13:31

My side of the mountain was one of my favorites

LMWatBullRunat 14:20

Richard Scary had some wonderful illustrated children’s books- I particularly recall “What do people do all day?”, but I know there were others. I think there are also children’s versions of “how things work”.

Echo the earlier recommendation of Lewis’ Narnia books.

I also liked “the Great Brain” by John D Fitzgerald; I think there were a half dozen or so of those books. They might be just a tad too complex for a 7 year old.

For teens, I’d suggest any of the dozen or so young adult novels that Robert Heinlein wrote, but 7 is likely too young to appreciate those. I’ll check and see what my nephews are reading these days.

25 October 2006

EnoughAlreadyat 00:24

My husband has been reading, “Purple Death: The Mysterious Flu of 1918″, to our 8 y.o. grandson. Today, I took him to the library. He found some book about a cow who got the flu and spread it to the entire barnyard… because he was sneezing on them, coughing on them, etc. (I don’t know the name & I can’t find where he put his books. I’ll post the name when he tells me where he put his books.) Purple Death is a little much for the 8 yo, IMO. It sort of scares him. However, it has spurred his interest and awareness. The book he picked out today certainly hit the nail on the head.

My husband also buys and reads TIME magazine books to my 8 yo grandson. Then, he looks through them… pours over them… for hours! They have been reading and rereading, “Nature’s Extremes”, for months. It’s about hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, volcanoes, comets, avalanches, sandstorms, wilfires, tsunamis, comets, etc. Awesome photography! My husband utilizes the opportunity to plug science lessons in while reading. My grandson will look through the newspaper hunting for photos of extreme nature stuff, and he will come bolting from out of nowhere when something is mentioned on the news, yelling: “Hey! I know about that!”

Scholastic has a book series, “Detective Academy.” All of my grandsons love this book series.

Eyewitness books have a series of books, about everything! My grandsons LOVE the “SPY” book. They love anything about spies, etc. Including Hardy Boys and Encyclopedia Brown.

“Snake Dictionary”, by Scholastic, is a favorite of all my grandsons… ages 4–11. (The 13 year old has “outgrown” this book, but loved it when he was younger.)

I don’t know the name of the books, but there is a series of “I Spy” books. Things are hidden and you have to find the stuff. The favorite of these books is the one where everything is made from “something”… like a building is made of combs, cookies, cards, etc. The stuff is always old, antique kind of stuff that makes up the “picture.” I personally can’t find any of these books. All 12 of my grandkids love these books… especially that hard to find kind. (If anybody knows how to find that series, I would greatly appreciate the info!) The g’kids will pour over those books for hours hunting stuff… and trying to find stuff not asked or nobody else can find. Honestly, I love those books too!

EnoughAlreadyat 00:35

Oh yeah, Lady Bird books has a series of How Thing Work books--- like radio, camera, electricity, etc. They are simple enough for a younger child to grasp, yet detailed enough to “grow into.”

And, Scholastic has a series of How Stuff Is Made books--- like How Ketchup is Made, What Happens at a Cannery, etc.

Safety Lady – at 00:38

I am not sure of the reader level but Wrinkle in Time has been my favoite for more years than I can remember. All of my kids and most of the grandkids read it as well as my husband and sister. It is an alltime favorite.

bgw in MT – at 01:46

Kathy in Fl mentioned my first pick for prepper’s fiction for children, Swiss Family Robinson. I loved Carol Ryrie Brink’s Caddie Woodlawn and the sequel Magical Melons about a farm family in the 1800s. Caddie is a girl, but has two brothers that are always included in her adventures. Caddie Woodlawn was a Newberry Medal Award winner, if I remember correctly.

Des – at 02:47

Enough Already — I’m sure I’ve seen the “I Spy” series of books at our local Barnes & Noble. In addition, you may be interested in the “Look Alikes” set of books — perhaps that’s what you are refering to when you talk about old items making up the entire picture. Check it out at Amazon.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Vaccination Reactions

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Vaccination Reactions

12 October 2006

Miss Spider – at 11:33

I think I have convinced my husband to have both the flu and pneumovax. We’ll have to go to Costco, because our dr. won’t get any til late Oct/Nov (and even then is balking at the pneumovax). Anyway, I’m wondering what reactions to the pneumovax you all have experienced and what I should expect. Thanks.

mom11 – at 11:58

Hi Miss Spieder!

I called the FDA last year and asked if there would be any benefit to getting the pneumovax, in the event of an H5 pandemic. Thye told me yes, so I rushed right out and got them for the entire family. This shot wasn’t painful, at the time of injection. It is a stinker afterwards, but a small price to pay for some added protection, against this deadly beast. #7 and I had some swelling, a rash on our arms, and yes it was quite painful…BUT…Nothing that would have stopped me from getting it again. In fact there are some suggestions, that those that are hige risk, should repeat the shot the following year and this would include ALL of us…Dag-Nab-it!

Actually the worst reaction, I ever had to a vaccine, was the reaction after I received the H5N1 trial vaccine. My arm swelled 4.5 inches around and it was quite sore. The jury is still out, as to whether or not, it has caused more lasting problems. Even still…In a pandemic, with a 50% mortality rate…I would be begging for this vaccine for my chicks….We’ll have to wait and see, what the risk of the virus is, compared to the rick of the best vaccine we can produce…..

I hope you are getting your shots, as well! Drag your husband in, if you have to….

INFOMASS – at 12:03

I had both a flu shot and a pneumovax yesterday, one in each arm. A little sore but one aspirin makes it all quite bearable. The nurse said that big reactions were uncommon. I hope they do some good.

jt – at 12:10

I had the pneumovax a few months ago and no reaction, also had tetnus at same time. Male age 50. Smart to have it done now!

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 12:19

Ok, time for me to chime in here…..we both got pneumonia shots and the shot itself didn’t hurt, just like someone else above said.

I think it was 3 hours later, my arm started to ‘hurt’, like sore muscles. Then it started to HURT like someone had hit me with a baseball bat. AND THEN it swelled up. I had pain and swelling in my shoulder, down the back side of my arm, all the way to my elbow.

The swelling was pretty bad, in that if I stood in front of the mirror with both arms by my side, it looked like the top part of my swollen arm was melting over my elbow & would swallow it up soon!

That lasted about 5 days, with the swelling going down gradually. It did affect my hands (and my typing) ever so slightly, but as the upper swelling went down, my hand was back to normal in just a day or so.

I dare say that I had a reaction that was NOT mild, but rather serious, but as it started to get more and more sore, I researched the Net for ‘serious’ reactions and I wasn’t having shortness of breath or ANY of the other things listed as ‘serious’ reactions, so I just waited it out!

I survived.

2beans – at 13:18

I had the pneumovax and tetanus both last year in Katrina aftermath (glad I got them in different arms) and had what I consider an ordinary reaction. The area of the pneumovax was swollen and hot and sore - couldn’t lift my arm above shoulder level. But that’s not much worse than the tetanus vax.

Tom DVM – at 13:23

It seems like there are too many adverse reactions to this vaccine…the old saying ‘no pain…no gain’ does not apply…something may be wrong with this vaccine.

tjclaw1 – at 13:23

No reaction at all. Not even painful.

Watching in Texas – at 13:29

I had a flu shot and a pneumonia shot (one in each arm) on Saturday and am just now feeling better. Both my arms were VERY sore and I had flu-like symptoms, fever, aches, chills, for a couple of days. My lungs still hurt a little, but other than that I am much better. Other family members had the same shots and just had sore arms. My mother had a similar reaction last year to a pneumonia shot, so maybe it’s genetics??

Bottom line - no matter what I said on Sunday when I was miserable;-) I’d still do it again!

Malachi – at 13:52

Kids and I had the pnuemovax last spring….No pain at time of injection and no soreness or anything after…Kids were the same.I was very nervous to have it from hearing it was bad on the net but it was cake.Now if I can convince myself that flu and tetnus were going to be that easy I would have already done those.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 14:02

2beans – at 13:18 The area of the pneumovax was swollen and hot and sore - couldn’t lift my arm above shoulder level.

Yep, I had that too — couldn’t really move my arm any direction, but especially anything that made me move my elbow straight out from my side. Sore like a mule kicked it. I wrote up the effects & had my doc put it in my file for future reference.

LauraBat 14:10

No problems here either. Tetanus was a different story -that one hurts and continues to hurt for a few days.

If you haven’t had your tetanus vax in ten years (or if you can’t even remember the last time you got it), get it now. You don’t want to be worried about problems from a cut if there is pandemic flu raging.

Madamspinner – at 14:19

my mom & I both got both shots yesterday. She has had no reaction….I, on the other hand….am having the same reaction as I’m-working-on-it did ! Plus a fever of about 102+. I’m just mildly miserable today.

Would I do it again ?? YES !

NJ Jeeper – at 14:37

DW got her pneumonia and flu. Flu ok, Pneumonia sore arm for 24 hours and painful to move. Get it in your arem you do not use as much. Worth getting, mainly a nuisance (says the one who did not get the pne. shot. I got it 5 years ago.)

Hurricane Alley RN – at 15:02

Went to the Health Dept. last Thursday for my flu immunization and Td Booster(tetanus-diphtheria). I absolutly refuse to have side effects I can prevent! Take Tylenol twenty minutes before the injection(s), then as direted per the bottle for the next 48 hours. As always, I had no localized problems. This also works well with infants and children. However, I did get a mild case of the flu. For me, that was a big deal considering I have never had the flu! I’m really glad I got the vaccine. It is said if you get the flu from the vaccine, you would have gotten the flu three times worse! All I can say is that I would have been good for the yard. granulated inseticide, nitrogen, ash ← gina

Miss Spider – at 15:22

Tom DVM at 13:23 “…something may be wrong with this vaccine.”

Does that mean that you won’t be getting a pneumovax? As always, I look forward to your “why”.

Watching in Texas – at 15:23

Hurricane Alley RN - I always take Tylenol, Motrin and/or both before I get any shot. I did this year too, but for whatever reason - it did not help at all - ????

Watching in Texas – at 15:25

Sorry, also took them for the next few days - it really did not seem to help at all.

Tom DVM - I talked to my pediatricians’ nurse and she said the pneumovax is a live virus and there is always a chance to have a mild case of whatever the immunization is for, if the shot contains a live virus.

TXNurseat 17:08

My family of 4 all had the pneumovax about 6 months ago, all had only slightly sore arm, tetnus always makes my arm sore for about 4–5 days, but not bad, we all recently (last week) had flu shots, no reactions what so ever. I give alot of these vaccines to people, and see very little adverse reactions to people while they are hospitalized.

Loui – at 18:46

Pneumovax is not a live virus vaccine; it is a bacterial polysacharide (?sp) vaccine. I got mine on Monday, along with a tetanus shot…will get the flu shot in a week or so at work. The pneumovax stung a little and only slightly sore the next day or so. The tetanus hurt less going in but arm is still sore today. No other problems, just a little achy all over for a couple of days.

Tom DVM – at 19:06

Miss Spider 15:22.

I will attempt to explain myself and as always it is only a personal opinion…I don’t pretend to be an expert.

There are two portions of a vaccine; the antigen itself that interacts with the immune system locally via lymph nodes ect. to produce an immune response and the carrier which should be inert and cause no localized reaction.

Usually, if you get a swollen arm, it is not due to the antigen but rather due to the carrier. I had a very serious reaction to the carrier in a rabies vaccine in 1982 and anon 22 is concerned and has researched this area quite thoroughly including adjuvants that can also cause serious problems.

I think a swollen arm is actually counter-productive to a vaccine because if the immune system is tied up reacting to the foreign carrier then it is not responding to the antigen which is what you get the vaccine for in the first place.

Now, if there was a shred of evidence that influenza vaccine protected a significant porportion of the population, I would be first in line to get it…but the fact is that the current vaccine produced by our antiquated system concieved of in the 1930′s, doesn’t work…well, it is possible that it may protect 5% of the population but I wouldn’t even be sure about that…

…as far as an experimental H5N1 vaccine produced in the panic of a pandemic in a factory that is short-handed because people are sick with H5N1…no thanks, I would rather take that 80% chance with the virus that I can bet it and recover with no after-effects whatsoever.

…and we should keep in mind that we have had three vaccine production failures in the past five years under normal conditions and even at full production they will only be able to produce 200 million doses worldwide…therefore, the politicians will get the experimental vaccine and I and my family won’t because we are not that important enough…to which I can only say Thank God!!

The pneumovax vaccine to protect against bacterial pneumonia on the other hand, as far as I know, is very effective and I would certainly have my family vaccinated with it…I have had too any serious vaccine reactions to take a chance…I am better to take my chances with the bug and hope I have some antibiotics to treat it with…

…So the bottom line is get the pneumovax vaccine and as long as the influenza vaccine goes…if it can’t hurt you then you might want to get it in the hopes that it will provide a little protection against the seasonal influenza…it is highly speculative to state that it will protect against the monster…H5N1.

Hope that helps. Other professionals would likely have the opposite opinion.

Tom DVM – at 19:10

Watching in Texas. I don’t know whether pneumovax is a live vaccine or not…maybe JV or one of the other physicians on flu wiki could comment.

I have had some experiences with animals and live vaccines…I am not a big fan.

INFOMASS – at 19:15

Tom DVM: Do you discount the recent report (which was in FW) that some protection against H5N1 was conferred by the seasonal flu shots? It sounded doubtful to me, but I am not in a position to judge the validity of the techniques used to reach those conclusions.

Tom DVM – at 19:18

This may be a little off topic for this thread but the most effective vaccine that I used was an intranasal vaccine against Infectious Bovine Rhinotracheitis in Cattle…

…when it worked and the intramuscular vaccines for respiratory problems didn’t…I did a little research on the matter.

The fact is that an intramuscular vaccine would work very well if the animal in question is infected by the virus injecting itself into a muscle which only happens with mosquito-borne diseases.

The reason an intra-nasal vaccine works better is because it stimulates the immune system locally in the nose, throat, and lungs through the lymph system into lymph nodes etc…

…it primes the pump so to speak exactly along the route where the infectious agent has to pass to infect the animal.

My father, a physician, was having a problem with intramuscular whooping cough vaccine because it wasn’t working for his patients. What he did was take the vaccine and soak it into a sugar tablet and give the kids the sugar tablet. He claimed the success rate was many multiples of the intramuscular injection…this worked by the same process…it stimulated the local immune system in the nose and throat as well.

I have described the immune system in the past as an f-18 fighter plane stuffed into the trunk of a 1962 Volkswagon bug (our bodies). It is highly sophisticated and we should not assume that the immune response stimulated in a muscle is the same as an immune response stimulated in the lungs…

…in the nuances is the difference between sickness and health…or in the case of H5N1, life and death.

Thanks!!

Tom DVM – at 19:22

INFOMASS. My honest opinion is that someone was under a deadline to ‘publish or perish’…and that this is wishful thinking…however, if the data supports the claim then maybe, just maybe we could get off easy…

…but I guess my point would be that if it doesn’t work for the easier to protect against seasonal influenza, how could they make the second claim?

Unfortunately, I have seen more smoke and mirrors on the issue of H5N1 over the past two years then I have seen on any infectious disease in my professional lifetime.

It would be easier for all concerned if they were just honest about things.

It’s all about ‘follow the leader’ and we all know who the leader is.

Many Cats – at 23:57

Tom DVM: I am not an immunologist, but I seem to recall that with mucosal forms of immunity (which produce a predominantly IgA antibody response, as opposed to the predominantly IgM/IgG response produced by intramuscular vaccination) that the memory for the antigen is less robust. This would work well if the pathogen were in the area, but might not work as well for long-term immune recognition. Someone ought to check into whether this is the case.

Your Dad was brilliant in his use of the vaccine in sugar cubes!!! You should put that on the “Pioneer Ingenuity” thread! Your arguments make a strong argument for use of “Flumist” as opposed to an IM injection, although if immune memory is a concern, then either a booster of “Flumist” or a combination of IM vaccination and “Flumist” booster could be the best approach. HOWEVER, such an approach would have to be researched and trials monitored by health care professionals, since re-vaccination in some cases can lead to SERIOUS adverse reactions. Worth pursuing as a possible future treatment protocol for at-risk groups, though!

13 October 2006

Tom DVM – at 00:08

Many Cats. Yes, that is the way I understand it as well. But my field experience indicated to me that the localized immune response was better in the face of a field challenge and I believe that through the lymph nodes you get IgG as well so there is not a big problem with memory…

…it seems to me that if there was a problem with memory and intranasal vaccines or oral vaccines, they wouldn’t work in the first place.

Is the Flumist a live vaccine…I have an extreme dislike of live vaccines or modified live vaccines…it’s a long story.

Why don’t they take some of their vaccine and shoot it up the nose of their lab animals and we will see if it is effective…they might want to try it orally as well.

In my opinion, they are going to have to come up with another delivery system and probably another vaccine because the present ones just don’t work at all.

By the way, my sincere thanks for all of your help and brain power in helping with my medical condition.

Tom DVM – at 00:11

Many Cats. If we naturally become immune to field challenge by viruses up the nose…then there must be memory in the localized immune response.

I think the reverse argument is true…it is the intramuscular vaccine where the memory is not so good!! /:0)

Many Cats – at 00:17

Tom DVM: You are most welcome, although international diagnosis can be a bit of a challenge. :) I doubt the Fluwiki community would forgive your colleagues if we didn’t keep you posting for the duration. :) :) :) You may wish to give our most amazingly knowledgeable go-between some public credit, as well.

beehiver – at 00:18

Many Cats and Tom. It’s really true. FluMist is a live vaccine.

Many Cats – at 00:20

Tom DVM at 00:11: I concur. Field experience trumps the theoretical everytime and, as we all know, lab animals and tissue culture experiments mimick natural conditions only to a point. The most natural route should be the preferred route for protection (which is why I said your Dad was brilliant). :)

Many Cats – at 00:23

Tom DVM: P.S. I, too, dislike live vaccines. The Titanic was safe, too.

beehiver: Thanks for the info. on FluMist.

Tom DVM – at 00:24

Many Cats. He had the data all collected to publish his finding and although I think he did present some of them to the Canadian Medical Association, I am pretty sure he didn’t publish…I saw the results in the kids and adults and it without doubt did work.

Tom DVM – at 00:26

And about our mutual friend NS1, I will follow him around until I get a chance to thank him.

Thanks again.

Many Cats – at 00:31

:)

beehiver – at 00:47

For those that appreciate being informed about vaccinations in general, and flu vaccine in particular, here is a short summary with references about why flu vaccine(s) can have limited effectiveness. It’s been posted in pieces on other threads, and pulled together here in more coherent fashion.


1. The length of effectiveness of the flu shot is not very long. For the elderly, it can be as short as 3 months. So - if your grandma in a nursing or retirement facility gets a flu shot the middle of October, it may be wearing off as soon as the middle of January, which is near the beginning of height of flu season. There is something about the immune system of the elderly that shows a weaker response to flu shots, than other age groups. The response to flu vaccine may also be weak in individuals of other ages with weakened or impaired immune systems.
2. Influenza viruses are notorius for mutating. By the time the WHO & CDC decide on the strains that will be used in the upcoming season of flu vaccine, and the virus grown to sufficient amounts, then manufactured into a vaccine, at least 6 months have passed. By that time, the wild circulating virus can change enough to make a component of the vaccine ineffective, or another virus strain could enter into sirculation.
3. There are many other viruses that can cause respiratory illness in addition to influenza. These conditions are loosely called “influenza-like illnesses” (ILI) by the CDC. It has been stated in a public FDA meeting by Dr. Nancy Cox (the top influenza scientist at the CDC), that at the height of flu season in 2003, only 20% of the respiratory samples sent to the CDC actually contained influenza virus.
(Names of other respiratory viruses that can cause “influenza-like illness” in humans: rhinovirus, respiratory syncytial virus, parainfluenzavirus, metapheumovirus, bocavirus, coronavirus, and adenovirus).
References
items 1 and 2.

http://www.gov.mb.ca/health/flu/factsheet.html
“Protection from the flu begins approximately two weeks following immunization and can last for six months or longer. In the elderly, protection may start to decrease after four months.”
http://www.toronto.ca/health/flu_facts.htm#why
“The influenza virus changes each year, so a different vaccine has to be used each year too. The protection from the vaccine wears off after about six months so people need a new shot every year.”
This page from manufacturer’s information about the Fluzone vaccine, says this:
“In facilities housing older persons (eg, nursing homes), vaccination before October typically should be avoided because antibody levels in such persons can begin to decline within a limited time after vaccination.”
But an earlier version of this company’s document (2002–2003), says “Administering vaccine before October should generally be avoided in facilities such as nursing homes, because antibody levels can begin to decline within a few months after vaccination”.
item 3.
This is a snip from the transcript (pages 52–3) of a public FDA meeting, and brings up the problem of other respiratory viruses in influenza-like illness. Dr. Nancy Cox is the lead influenza scientist at the CDC.
[begin quote]
“MS. FISHER: Dr. Cox, I have two sort of generic questions. This handout that we were given, there’s a statement that says, “Since September 29, WHO and NREVSS laboratories have tested a total of 33,901 specimens for influenza viruses and 1,195, or 3.5 percent, were positive.”
Doesn’t that seem like an awfully low percentage there that were positive for influenza virus? I assume that means that these individuals were sick with other things that looked like the flu.
I guess my question is, in your statistics, when people report flu, how do you know that is actually reflecting flu and not something else?
DR. COX: Right. There’s not a really short answer to this question, but, first of all, I would like to mention that what we had circulated, what had been circulated to the Committee previously, was a week older data than what I talked about today.
What I talked about today is the figures for week six, which is the figures for the week ending February 8th. During that week, which is actually during the influenza season, 20 percent of the respiratory specimens tested were positive for flu. This is what we will expect during the influenza season. The numbers that are in that report reflect all of the respiratory specimens that have been collected since October, when influenza viruses were not circulating.
Now these respiratory specimens are collected from people with respiratory illness, and there are many other pathogens that cause respiratory illness. So we don’t report on those pathogens because this Committee is really focused on influenza.” [end quote]

Many Cats – at 02:12

Thanks, beehiver! Nice to have all this in one place!

beehiver – at 11:26

Many Cats, you’re very welcome. It seems the dragon that eats the lines to separate the paragraphs was awake last night…I have no idea where they went!

If I were considering a medical treatment to mediate a severe illness, or potentially save my life or that of a family member, I would certainly want to be informed what the procedure was capable of doing, or not doing.

15 October 2006

Madamspinner – at 05:19

Tom DVM – at 19:06

I think a swollen arm is actually counter-productive to a vaccine because if the immune system is tied up reacting to the foreign carrier then it is not responding to the antigen which is what you get the vaccine for in the first place.

Well, Just Great !…So am I NOT protected from the pnumonia as well as I should be ?? My arm swelled to twice it’s normal size, was red and hot with a skin temp of 104 ! :-(

anon_22 – at 06:49

Madamspinner – at 05:19

Well, Just Great !…So am I NOT protected from the pnumonia as well as I should be ?? My arm swelled to twice it’s normal size, was red and hot with a skin temp of 104 ! :-(

No, it doesn’t mean that. It means you had a stronger local reaction, which bears no relationship to whether the effectiveness of the systemic ie overall immunity. ie you are just as likely to be protected as anyone else taking that vaccine.

prepmaniac – at 08:11

My DD and I had pnumonia vaccine on Monday. It did not hurt. On Tuesday we both had a sore arm. She played tennis and I did my usual. Now effects are completly gone. We did not feel sick, no fever. Don’t be afraid. No big deal.

NJ JEEPER

The nurse volunteered that you need the p shot every 5 years. Let me know if you got this post.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 12:52

15 October 2006 Madamspinner – at 05:19 Well, Just Great !…So am I NOT protected from the pnumonia as well as I should be ?? My arm swelled to twice it’s normal size, was red and hot with a skin temp of 104 ! :-(

Madamspinner, did you find out what was IN the shot you got? I need to find out what was in the one I got & maybe that would explain something about why we had our reaction! I didn’t take my arm temp, but it WAS hot, swollen and sore! Man was it sore! As I said, it was ‘odd’ enough for me to write a note for my doctor to put in my files concerning the reaction.

annonx2 – at 12:56

Got the pnu vax last year - just another shot no reaction. Got the flu vax yesterday - no reaction ..

guess I just a lunk …

Tom DVM – at 13:00

Hi everyone. I don’t think all of these local reactions to this vaccine are a good thing but they will have little effect this time and you will most likely have excellent immunity.

However, and I am speaking from personal experience when I almost died from a rabies vaccine in 1982, you should talk to a doctor before you have a booster to this shot…

…the first shot primes your immune system…it will be with the next shot when it will turn it’s substantial weapon systems against you and the end result is not fun!!

I believe these adverse reactions should be brought to the attention of regulatory officials; local health units or the CDC in the United States…

…there is obviously something wrong with the carrier in this vaccine.

anon 22. You are the vaccine carrier expert…what is your opinion?

Olymom – at 13:12

Advice on pneumovax is so varied. I have been told that it is only good for a few years and then one should get a booster and I have been told that one pneumovax sets you up for life. One of our boys got pneumovax at age eleven (he’s now 17), so I am VERY confused as to whether or not this kid is covered. Any other insights would be appreciated.

Leo7 – at 14:23

TomDVM:

I’ve heard the side effects from the Pneumo shot are worse than most. The comments here second that. I don’t understand why people are taking both at the same time. Me, I would do one take plenty of Vit C, and then go for the other. Their immune systems must be feeling a little pooped. However, I’m not taking these vaccines so my opinion is cheap and free, and shouldn’t be construed as medical advice. Pneumovax states booster every five years but only 3 times in toto (as in lifetime).

Tom DVM – at 15:16

Leo 7 Thanks. The reaction produced in days 1–5 cannot be due to the immune system responding to the antigen…it can only be due to the body reacting to the carrier.

As you would know, vaccines are not supposed to do this…there is no reason or need for it…and there is no benefit from this type of localized reaction.

Is the CDC keeping statistics on the adverse reactions to this specific vaccine…

…I wonder if they have records on what has happened to those recieving a booster in 5 years…the immune system has quite a long memory.

Leo7 – at 15:30

TomDVM:

Now Tom, I think the myth of the record keeping has been hashed in other threads. Long term studies on boosters don’t have a snowballs chance in h##l of ever being studied in large groups. When millions take it and you’re offerred studies of a couple of hundred examples it shows no one is interested in knowing the answer. As for the carrier…these companies are cited over and over again for contamination, the fines are paltry, and as long as the demand doesn’t involve insistence on sterility…you will see problems.

OKbirdwatcherat 16:33

I’m very hesitant to get any vaccinations after reading anon_22′s MF 59 Story. Why are we so trusting of big pharma or anyone else involved in these vaccines and just roll up our sleeves and let someone inject God only knows what into our bodies??? No thanks. I’m with you, Tom DVM, guess I’ll just take my chances otherwise.

anon_22 – at 19:02

OKbirdwatcher ¨C at 16:33 I¡¯m very hesitant to get any vaccinations after reading anon_22¡äs MF 59 Story.

I think there is a difference between that story and vaccines in general. Oil-based adjuvants stand out in terms of risk as a class of its own.

The fact that MF59 after all these years still hasn’t gotten FDA approval speaks volumes. The normal regulatory procedures and peer review etc do work most of the time. I won’t repeat the circumstances under which they might break down since these have been discussed thoroughly in that thread.

I can’t say that pneumovax is entirely harmless, but I can say that I have no hesitation taking it myself nor recommending it to most people. There is a world of difference between that and oil adjuvants, IMHO.

FloridaGirlat 19:46

FWIW…

I did some research for our physicians last year on the adverse effects of 1. receiving the pneumococcal vaccine and 2. Receiving the pneumococcal vaccine multiple times within the 5 year timeframe.

For #1. The reported adverse effects were mostly local at the site of injection in the form of redness and swelling. The most common systemic reaction was a low grade fever.

Other reported adverse effects included mild rash,itching at the site and sore throat. These studies were in young healthy subjects and other studies in the elderly.

For #2. The adverse reactions were the same, but more severe. Some patients did develop more systemic symptoms, but the number of patients affected were small. Usually these patients received 2 vaccines within a year’s time.

This research was done on the 23 valient pneumococcal vaccine.

Tom DVM – at 19:58

FloridaGirl Thanks for the information.

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 20:23

ADVERSE REACTIONS The following adverse experiences have been reported with PNEUMOVAX 23 in clinical trials and/or post-marketing experience: Local reactions at injection site including soreness, warmth, erythema, swelling and induration.I In post-marketing experience, injection site cellulitis-like reactions were reported rarely; between 1989 and 2002, when approximately 43 million doses were distributed, the annual reporting rate was <2/100,000 doses. These cellulitis-like reactions occurred with initial and repeat vaccination at a median onset time of 2 days after vaccine administration and were transient in nature. Compared with primary vaccination, an increased rate of self limited local reactions has been observed with revaccination at 3–5 years following primary vaccination. Fever ≤ 102°F I Other adverse experiences reported in clinical trials and/or in post-marketing experience include: Body as a Whole Cellulitis Asthenia Malaise Fever (> 102°F) Chills Digestive System Nausea Vomiting Hematologic/Lymphatic Lymphadenitis Thrombocytopenia in patients with stabilized idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura33 Hemolytic anemia in patients who have had other hematologic disorders Hypersensitivity Anaphylactoid reactions Serum Sickness Angioneurotic edema Musculoskeletal System Arthralgia Arthritis Myalgia

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 20:28

Also - perhaps the nurse gave a bad shot? The pneumovax can be given subcutaneously or intramuscularly. Could poor injection technique have caused or contributed to these negative reactions? Here is link for Merck pneumovac info. http://tinyurl.com/em6dy

Tom DVM – at 22:10

Lisa in Southern Maine.

PNEUMOVAX 23 may be a very safe vaccine and the following statement refers to all vaccines.

Don’t confuse ‘adverse reactions’ with ‘reported adverse reactions’…most reactions are either not identified or not reported.

Thalidamide was a safe drug for pregnant women with morning sickness for extended periods with no adverse reactions as well. It took a long time for the connections to be made…

…and there is no greater supporter of childhood vaccinations etc. then myself.

Tom DVM – at 22:12

and from the comments on flu wiki in the past week. Someone should deal with the severe reactions at injection sites for this vaccine…in my opinion, there are too many problems here to be explained by poor vaccination technique.

Tom DVM – at 22:15

Lisa. Thanks for your clear and concise post at 20:23 and 20:28.

16 October 2006

Worried in the City – at 01:37

I got a flu shot and pneumovax last year and my arm hurt for 3 days, so much that typing was painful. This year, my 2 kids got pneumovax alone (out of flu shots) and both of their arms hurt 2 days with much loud complaining. They said pain relievers didn’t really help.

prepmaniac – at 06:43

Like I told my DD when she complained about a sore arm the next day….pneumonia hurts a whole lot more than this… Really, the soreness lasted a lot longer from the tetness shot we got in august than the p shot we got on monday.

Tom DVM – at 11:15

You should not have sore arms for more than a few hours from any vaccination…if the reaction occurs in 2 in 100,000 people like is stated above then there is no issue…but that is never the case.

In our very small sample size on flu wiki it appears that more than 50% of the people recieving the vaccine this fall are either getting very sore arms for several days or systemic reactions with increased temperatures or both…

…as we can observe these reactions are not being reported to doctors or the CDC.

Either this vaccine has been causing local reactions and some systemic reactions for some time or there is a particular problem with the carrier in the vaccine production this year.

This problem does not come without future consequences when for example other vaccines with similar carriers are given…and the potential for future reactions could last a lifetime.

…there is no need for undue alarm…this is not the first vaccine or first lot of vaccine that this has happened with…

…but this situation should be investigated immediately by the company in question and by concurrently an independent third party if one exists in today’s regulatory environment.

AlohaORat 12:18

Tom DVM wrote: …the first shot primes your immune system…it will be with the next shot when it will turn it’s substantial weapon systems against you and the end result is not fun!!

My 78yo mother-in-law is currently in the ICU as a result of receiving the pneumovax & influenza vaccines 12 days ago. She has received flu shots annually, and had her last pneumonia shot 10 years ago.

She had localized pain & swelling on days 2–3 and was feeling better by days 4–5 (days after receiving injections). By day 6 howver, she had a large swelling at the injection site, with a black center about the size of a nickel. We went to the doctor, who couldn’t decide if it was a local infection (so prescribed antibiotics) or a reaction to the shots (so suggested benadryl). By the next morning (day 7) the inflamation was much worse, so we went to the emergency room. ER doctor believed it was a staph infection — says he only sees this in IV drug users. Gave her vancomycin (in case it was MRSA) and cleaned out the abcess under local anaethesia. Her white blood cell count was 19 (thousand?). Day 8 she’s feelng better (in hospital surgical recovery ward), WBC is down to 11, still on vancomycin. All cultures of the material taken from the abcess & of her blood come back negative.

By Day 9 the wound area is about the same, but her WBC is back up to 19, she’s running a fever & becomes incoherent. They decide to go back in to the wound area to see if there is something they missed. Surgery on day 10; during recovery, her blood pressure drops extremely low. WBC is up to 50+. She enters the ICU & is on meds to raise her blood pressure. Day 11 — the surgeon & ICU doctor suspect she had an auto-immune reaction. ICU doctor discusses cytokine storms (is surprised that I’m familiar with the term, and am familiar with steriods & lipitor being used to supress the immune response — thank you fluwiki). She is put on steroids.

Today (day 12) she’s sitting up in a chair, WBC is down, she’s feeling great. Of course, she’s still going to be in the hospital for a while because she now needs a skin graft on her arm.

A year ago she had necrotizing fasciitis (spelling? it’s the flesh-eating bacteria); after surgeries to remove the infection, she had 2–3 weeks of extremely high WBCs & fevers. The doctors now think it might have been a similar auto-immune reaction. So her reaction to the immunizations was certainly atypical but was life-threatening.

Jody – at 12:42

Geesh, AlohaOR…I was feeling very sorry for myself until I read YOUR post…

I had pneumovax this past spring. About 45 minutes after having it one evening, I had numbness and tingling in my forearm. The needle my doctor used was very fine and very short, I didn’t even feel it. So I went to bed. I could hardly sleep from the discomfort. The next day, my left hand was completely numb and I realised that I had compartment syndrome. The injection site had a 2 inch weal, and then there was a white ring around that, and then a HUGE red ring going up to my neck, my scapular muscles and chest muscles were all swollen and hot. Needless to say, I couldn’t move my arm at all, ran a fever of 101 F. It took about 4 days for all effects to fade. My hand was numb for about 24 hours. Doctor said later that usually there were “no side effects” and I should have come in, she “would have liked to have seen that”.

So you think it is the phenol carrier that is the problem, Tom DVM? What else uses phenol, so I know what to avoid in the future?

Jody – at 12:50

Geesh, AlohaOR…I was feeling very sorry for myself until I read YOUR post…

I had pneumovax this past spring. About 45 minutes after having it one evening, I had numbness and tingling in my forearm. The needle my doctor used was very fine and very short, I didn’t even feel it. So I went to bed. I could hardly sleep from the discomfort. The next day, my left hand was completely numb and I realised that I had compartment syndrome. The injection site had a 2 inch weal, and then there was a white ring around that, and then a HUGE red ring going up to my neck, my scapular muscles and chest muscles were all swollen and hot. Needless to say, I couldn’t move my arm at all, ran a fever of 101 F. It took about 4 days for all effects to fade. My hand was numb for about 24 hours. Doctor said later that usually there were “no side effects” and I should have come in, she “would have liked to have seen that”.

So you think it is the phenol carrier that is the problem, Tom DVM? What else uses phenol, so I know what to avoid in the future?

Leo7 – at 14:51

Jody and alohaOR:

I’m guessing what happened wasn’t reported to the Vavers line for vaccine side effects? Or do you even know?

Cinda – at 15:10

2 weeks ago husband had his pneumovax and had a reaction. The next day his entire upper arm from the elbow to shoulder, his pec muscles and whichever ones wrap around the side into your back and were all inflamed and he couldn’t even lift his arm. Went back to the doc- the lymphnodes were swollen too. They put him on motrin for the inflamation and sent him home to “watch” if it got any worse to come back in. By the next day he was fine, just a bit sore in the upper arm. I had mine this past Saturday morning- same doc. No problem- just sore like a tetnus shot. I’ll get my Flu shot for the 1st time in Nov at work. I never get sick- everyone around me gets all sorts of stuff and I never catch it- till last year. I got the flu last year (from husband- who developed pneumonia from it) for the 1st time since I was in my mid 20s. Was I ever sick. 20 years takes alot of the bounce out of your “bounce back” ability. So I’m getting my shot this year.

Genoa – at 17:06

You guys are scaring me! My daughter and I are scheduled for our flu shots tomorrow—plus the pneumovax for me, as well. We’re both considered high-risk (cardiac disease for both of us, plus asthma since birth for me) and with the severe problems my asthma causes anytime I get ill, I can’t imagine not getting the shots. But now I’m scared, too.

Genoa – at 17:06

You guys are scaring me! My daughter and I are scheduled for our flu shots tomorrow—plus the pneumovax for me, as well. We’re both considered high-risk (cardiac disease for both of us, plus asthma since birth for me) and with the severe problems my asthma causes anytime I get ill, I can’t imagine not getting the shots. But now I’m scared, too.

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 17:45

Genoa - I’m cardiac risk too, which is why I got pneumovax this year. Other than sore arm all went well and I’m glad I did it as I can handle sore arm but I don’t think my heart could handle pneumonia.

Jody – at 18:37

I have to agree with Genoa, Lisa. Yeah, it hurt like a bugger, but it is still temporary, and a better option than pneumonia. I’m just glad to hear that I’m not such a weirdo. Other people have this, too. So there must be more reactions to the shot than my doc let on.

And no, Leo7 at 14:51, I don’t think anything got reported in my case. I have to stop toughing things out, and go back and complain more! I tried taking motrin at home, it did relieve the fever. I wasn’t convinced it did much for the inflammation in my arm…but maybe something.

17 October 2006

AlohaORat 00:40

Leo wrote: I’m guessing what happened wasn’t reported to the Vavers line for vaccine side effects? Or do you even know?

My m-i-l suggested reporting the reaction when she went to see her primary care doctor on day ; the doctor immediately dismissed the suggestion. My m-i-l planned to report it herself — she was given an information/disclosure sheet (with the phone number) when she got the immunizations. I’ll check with the hospital tomorrow to see if they have reported it; if not, I’ll do it myself. By the way, the steroids seem to be working wonders, as her white blood count is coming down, all vital signs are improving & she’s out of the ICU.

My advice: Don’t get the flu shot & pneumovax at the same time. If you have a reaction, it would be nice to be able to identify what you’re reacting to.

Leo7 – at 01:11

AlohaOR:

Thanks for doing the follow through on reporting. They take the info and they will use standards based on info given, to determine if its vaccine related (the docs know this and I am apalled they are leaving it to the patient and family). Anyway, you have first person point of view why so many people distrust the info on vaccines. It seems so simple to me—report every side effect and let the protocols weed out non vaccine complications and then publish the results say every two years or four years. The reluctance to do so is short sighted. They prefer to make state rules on going to school and vaccines, which will make more people opt out of public schools so you’re back to square one. Again thanks for trying to do the right thing.

Tink – at 10:51

I have never had a flu shot. Maybe I’m being paranoid, but does anyone realy know what’s in these shots before they are given? What is in place in order to prevent some “test” compound from being included in these shots to monitor reactions? And, how can anyone know what the long-term effects might be since these shots haven’t been around long enough? It is “un-natural” to force viruses into one’s system. I’m always skeptical about things like this.

Olymom – at 11:25

I’ve had a flu shot for five of the last six years. (one year the flu shot was in short supply). I have not had any flu whatsoever. I am scheduled for the pneumovax this week and am getting a little nervous because of above posts — but will get flu shot in November and am not at all worried about that.

Some vaccines are more problematic than others. I’m old enough to remember kids getting polio and there’s no way I’d skip polio vaccine for my kids. Anyway, the flu vaccine doesn’t worry me.

anonymous – at 11:59

23 October 2006

chivito – at 14:40

FYI:

my wife and 2 toddler sons and i all got kaiser’s vax on saturday. we were all partying into the night….

i didnt even have my occasional—5 times in 15 years of flu shots—vasovagal syncope like last year. truly mystifying—i only pass out for flu shots not the many other shots ive had, blood drawn, etc…

havent had the flu in 15 years…

we also all had the pneumovax with no problems whatsoever.

25 October 2006

Olymom – at 00:40

Got the pneumovax in the left arm this last week and tetanus booster in the right. The nurse said to expect soreness with the tetanus but she hadn’t heard any complaints about the pneumovax. BOTH arms hurt for a couple of days. Not awful, but knew it was there. Whew. I’m going to try to get pneumovax for the kid who hasn’t had it and feel better about the shot now. It caused soreness but it was definately little league level.

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.VaccinationReactions
Page last modified on October 25, 2006, at 12:40 AM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / News Reports for October 24

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: News Reports for October 24

24 October 2006

AnnieBat 00:45

Summary from Indonesia Outbreak as at 23 October 2006

Cases DiscussedJun-06Jul-06Aug-06Sep-06Oct-06Total
Died, no tests2243415
Died, tested positive4323315
Other tested positive013105
Suspected symptoms42463826116
Tested negative062619758
Totals1014816440209

Lookout Posts – here are the links

(Please see the thread Volunteers Needed as Lookouts Worldwide if you want to help)


Summary of News for 23 October 2006

(From WHO as at 16 Oct - latest update) Total human cases worldwide 256, deaths 151 (2006 – 109 with 73 deaths)
(If you want the links to open in a new window, hold down the shift key and then click on the link)

Angola

Cameroon

Canada

England

France

India

Indonesia

Israel

Malawi

Mongolia

Taiwan

United States of America

Vietnam

General

(PDF of the Plan is at http://tinyurl.com/ykg22n)

Link to news thread for 23 October (link News Reports for October 23 )
(Usual disclaimer about may not have captured everything. Feel free to add your own where omissions have occurred.)
Please note that I copy the links directly from the thread so if they don’t work you may need to re-visit the Thread.

Oremus – at 01:29

I like the lookout post links Annie, great work.

johnO – at 01:39

You do rock, Annie. Thanks for keeping up on the latest stories.

AnnieBat 03:37

Thanks good peoples - every little bit that each of us does helps others so I am happy to do my meagre bit …


(USA - Indiana) Schools teaching flu pandemic prevention

By OSEYE T. BOYD (link http://tinyurl.com/ymhc39)

MUNCIE — A flu pandemic hasn’t arrived, but when one does, Delaware County superintendents want parents and children to be prepared. To that end, superintendents have partnered with the Delaware County Emergency Management Agency and Delaware County Health Department to alert families of potential dangers. Families with children in each school district in Delaware County will receive a letter during parent-teacher conferences or through a newsletter or mailing, Delaware Community Schools Asst. Supt. Steve Hall said.

“We feel like one of our responsibilities as schools is to educate, and we want our families to be aware that there are some things that they can do to prepare in terms of helping eliminate the spread of germs,” Hall said. “Then if there would be a true pandemic, we would want to limit the contact our families would have. Our thought was that early education — letting people be aware of the potential hazards and what our plans might be — would help reduce the spread of the virus, or any virus for that matter.”

<snip>

With so much media attention given to the possibility of a flu pandemic, school officials are often asked if they are aware and how they will respond if a major outbreak occurs, Muncie Community Schools Supt. Marlin Creasy said. The letter alerts parents “preliminary steps” schools are taking now, Creasy said.

Education and communication about potential hazards and prevention is key, said Bill Gosnell, Delaware County Emergency Director. “We’re very limited at what tools are at our disposal to help cope with human-to-human bird flu,” Gosnell said. “I don’t know if bird flu will be a non-event, but the more education we have, the better off we’ll be. Every resident should have an emergency disaster plan and an emergency disaster kit. I am going to make sure to the best of my ability that I educate this community with the facts and education they need to effectively deal with bird flu or any other pandemic that comes along.”

Schools are also making changes inside the buildings to keep illnesses from spreading, Mount Pleasant Township Community Schools Supt. Mary Ann Irwin said. Students are taught proper handwashing techniques. Hand sanitizer is readily available and different cleaning products being used to kill germs in bathrooms. “The reality is, whether it’s regular flu or pandemic bird flu or whatever, we need to be aware that there are some things that we need to prepare for,” she said.

Blue Ridge Mountain Mom – at 10:38

East Africa Tanzania

TANZANIA: Zanzibar destroys more eggs to keep bird flu at bay

STONE TOWN, 24 Oct 2006 (IRIN) - Authorities in Zanzibar have incinerated another consignment of chicken eggs smuggled from mainland Tanzania, in the hope of keeping their islands free of avian flu.

<snip>

The consignment was seized after the importers disappeared, apparently fearing arrest, Gharib said on Tuesday. Gharib said the Zanzibari business community had continued to import poultry products despite a ban on them introduced in 2005.

According to the United Nations World Health Organization (WHO), the H5N1 avian influenza virus can be found inside eggs, and on the surface of eggs laid by infected birds. …

ttp://tinyurl.com/yxaoo5

Blue Ridge Mountain Mom – at 10:47

Alaska, USA

BIRD FLU ‘CANARIES’ IN ALASKA Tuesday, October 24, 2006 - FreeMarketNews.com

<snip>

 He cites a Los Angeles Times story from the weekend, pointing at an isolated native tribe in Alaska who might become the canaries in the coal mine if this disease does begin to spread from birds to humans.

The article investigates the Yup’iks, whose actions are being noticed by lower-48 health officials, even up to their receiving regular medical checkups from physicians flying in from government public health departments. The reason for this: the tribe’s main food source is wild birds, who might be considered more likely to be carrying the H5N1 virus, in their migrations from Asia. The story quotes a federal wildlife biologist Brain McCaffery as saying, “If it’s going to show up in wild birds, Alaska is the most likely place where it’s going to happen.”

Strieber notes that the nearby Yukon National Wildlife Refuge draws “millions of wild birds,” who land there to rest before turning back to their winter flights to Australia and Asia. And while they are resting, the local tribesmen kill them and eat them for food, which could lead to the spread of the virus.

Staff Reports - Free-Market News Network

http://tinyurl.com/y574lq


COMMENT - The article from Tanzania says that properly cooked food might not spread the virus. In this article we’re watching this Indian tribe because they eat wild birds…. Is it any wonder that people do not believe the WHO with so much conflicting information being disseminated out there?

Blue Ridge Mountain Mom – at 10:48

Corrected link for 10:38

http://tinyurl.com/yxaoo5

Blue Ridge Mountain Mom – at 11:27

USA

NSWMA issues report on managing bird flu carcass waste

Oct. 24 — New guidance is available to solid waste industry about how to deal with carcasses created by avian influenza.

The National Solid Wastes Management Association has published a white paper entitled “Avian Influenza: The Hunt and Peck for Answers.”

“The paper was prepared to provide information about avian influenza for purposes of waste management, including some basic information about the disease, what scientists know about how it spreads, and currently available waste management options,” said Bruce Parker, president and CEO of NSWMA.

http://tinyurl.com/y2sdg4


COMMENT - I’m looking for the white paper now….

Blue Ridge Mountain Mom – at 11:40

Here’s a link for the disposal of domestic birds infected by avian influenza - an overview of considerations and options

This is dated August 11. I’m still searching for the October file, but I’ve got to run, so I’ll pick this up later.

http://tinyurl.com/ukgm8

DennisCat 12:31

bird cases- Nigeria

The country has so far recorded 123 cases of Avian influenza (AI) in 43 local government areas (LGAs) spread across 14 states and the FCT since its outbreak in February, according to a report…

Kaduna State had the second highest number of 15 cases recorded in Igabi, Kaduna North, Kaduna South, Chikun and Sabon Gari council areas, while Bauchi recorded 13 cases in Toro, Tafawa Balewa and Bauchi Metropolis LGAs to place third…..

….Kaduna State had the second highest number of 15 cases recorded in Igabi, Kaduna North, Kaduna South, Chikun and Sabon Gari council areas, while Bauchi recorded 13 cases in Toro, Tafawa Balewa and Bauchi Metropolis LGAs to place third. ….Lagos State came fourth with 12 cases reported in the Ojo, Agege, Ikorodu, Alimosho, Badagry, Eti-Osa, Amuwo-Odofin and Ifako-ljaiye council areas.

Placing fifth, Taraba recorded 11 cases in both Ibi and Wukari council areas, while Katsina State had nine cases from Malumfashi, Kankara, Daura and Katsina Municipal LGAs to rank sixth.

Kano State reported eight cases in four LGAs of Kumbotso, Janguza, Gezawa and Kano Municipal, followed by Nasarawa State with six cases from the Akwanga, Kokona and Lafia council areas.

http://tinyurl.com/y7c4ua

FrenchieGirlat 12:33

NEWS - RUSSIA - Russia tests bird flu vaccine - From Novosti - http://tinyurl.com/y9row3

The tests involved 240 healthy volunteers … tests had produced encouraging results … since a possible bird flu pandemic is likely to kill an estimated one-third of the world’s population. … Due to efforts …. no new bird flu outbreaks have been registered to date. But this does not mean that the disease has been eradicated.\\\

… Wavering global interest in bird flu is directly linked with the manifestations of this disease.

At present 360 million flu vaccines are produced annually. What makes the situation grave is that the whole of mankind, or over six billion people, would have to be vaccinated under the worst scenario.

Many scientists believe that the H5N1 virus cannot cause a major epidemic in the near future. “I see no reason to agree with assertions that bird flu will wipe out mankind,” said Vladimir Ivanitsky, PhD, a lecturer at Moscow State University. He said the bird flu virus had been known for a long time, birds had always contracted this disease, which sometimes affected humans. “Nothing has changed in the nature of the virus and birds,” he said.\\\

Vitaly Zverev said migrating birds would once again spread the active H5N1 virus all over the world the following spring. … Scientists believe the extremely mutagenous bird flu virus is bound to change within the next few years, and new viruses are a major threat.

The new vaccine is vital because its initial strain can be modified and used against a new strain, say, of the H7N2 virus. … Experts said it would take Russia seven to eight weeks to obtain the first several million vaccines after singling out the initial strain. In short, this country will receive enough anti-flu vaccines in 45 to 60 days.

FrenchieGirlat 12:36

Ssshugar - the article above in Novosti is a recycled one from 11 October 2006 - so perhaps it’s a dup. Sorry.

Bronco Bill – at 13:10

NEWS

Minn. experts: Healthiest should get flu vaccine first

ST. PAUL (AP) — A state panel of experts recommends that if a pandemic flu outbreak hits Minnesota,
the first flu shots should go to young and healthy heath care workers, leaving little or no vaccine
initially for the state’s sick and elderly.

[snip]

Healthy people in jobs delivering and administering vaccine, and those staffing and securing vaccine
clinics, would be the first to roll up their sleeves. The plan also calls for immediate vaccinations
of key government leaders.

On the web here

COMMENT

If “young and healthy” HCWs will be the first to get the vaccine, leaving “little or no vaccine” for others, what vaccine will they be administering? Oh, and Gov’t officials first? Of course.

Commonground – at 13:19

DennisC - at 12:31. February? What year? This year???

DennisCat 13:42

Commonground – at 13:19 I am assuming this is the total since Feb this year. The article’s second line lists: Tuesday, Oct 24, 2006

it seems to be a companion article for today along with: 700,000 birds culled since outbreak of Avian flu – WHO “Around 700,000 birds have been culled to date in Nigeria since the outbreak of Avian flu in February this year, according to a WHO official”

http://tinyurl.com/tjqou

and recall they had problems Feb this year: “ECOWAS takes emergency measures to fight bird flu • Sunday, Feb 26, 2006 … ….emergency meeting of ECOW AS held in Dakar …The H5Nl bird flu virus has been reported in northern Nigeria and dead birds found in Mauritania and Senegal

http://tinyurl.com/y9zux6

Commonground – at 13:54

Hi DennisC - I hope you didn’t feel I was specifically asking you. Sometimes that happens when we comment on an article. I found in the WHO Library a PDF Document on Nigeria and H5N1. It is the latest one available in their library. And it’s from March. Here’s the link:

http://tinyurl.com/y7cstj

DennisCat 14:27

Commonground – at 13:54 no problem at this end. I could not open your link (it is “timed out”). Do you have the title of the doc? I should be able to get it that way.

The thing is that we get so little out of Africa these days. I found it interesting that they still seem to be battling H5N1 there. The newspaper search from “The Tide” seems to be a fair source for info on Nigeria. You can search for “bird flu” and get several hits.

http://www.thetidenews.com/searchArticles.aspx

Commonground – at 15:34

Hi DennisC, Go back to the link where it says timed out. Hit OK button. Then on the next screen, put Nigeria H5N1 in the search. That’s all. Then in the next window, click on the first one (I think) that just says Nigeria (with like 530 links?). In the next window, it is the article # A88215 and it says Avian Influenza, Nigeria. Hope that helps?

Oremus – at 15:37

Screening for flu or Sars at UK airports to try to stop a pandemic taking hold in Britain will not work, warns an article in this week’s British Medical Journal.

Many people could be incubating the infection when tested but not show positive results because flight times are not long enough to allow flu or Sars to develop to the point of detection. The Health Protection Agency found that 0–3% of passengers from Europe would be picked up by tests if they were incubating Sars, and at most 21% from east Asia. Among those incubating flu, only about 10% would be detected at the airport gate.

Airport test to stop arrival of Sars and flu ‘pointless’

Commonground – at 15:38

DennisC, here’s more info:

It’s the Weekly Epidemiological Record
March 3, 2006
No. 9, 2006, 81, 81–88
www.who.int/wer

DennisCat 15:40

Commonground – at 15:38 thanks

Ottawan – at 17:16

Pandemic Flu Patients Should Stay Home, U.S. Officials May Say

By John Lauerman Oct. 24 (Bloomberg) — Health officials may propose a plan to prevent the spread of pandemic flu in the U.S. that includes treating sick patients at home, rather than in hospitals.

The home therapy option is based on computer models showing that limiting personal contact may slow growth of a pandemic. Advisers to the U.S. Institute of Medicine are meeting tomorrow in Washington to determine if scientific estimates are strong enough to make health policy decisions affecting the lives millions of Americans in a deadly flu outbreak. [snip]

 A study by researchers at Sandia National Laboratories in Albuquerque predicted that closing schools and keeping children at home during even a mild pandemic would cut the proportion of the population infected by more than 90 percent.

`The public is intelligent and will behave in a way that it perceives to be in its own best interests, he said. `You can shape that perception with information.

http://tinyurl.com/yldb5d

Leo7 – at 17:18

Now, they’re telling us?

Flu shots safe, suggested for babies, toddlers Federal study of 45,000 youngsters found few serious side effects of vaccine

 INTERACTIVE 

  http://tinyurl.com/yz4ohw
Ottawan – at 17:20

Don’t forget the killer diseases, experts urge

HONG KONG (Reuters) - While every human death from bird flu commands widespread attention, some experts are urging the world not to forget killer diseases such as tuberculosis and HIV/AIDS, which claim millions of lives each year.

More effort must be put into preventing these diseases, and vaccines — once they are ready — must be made available to the poorest nations, which suffer most from these illnesses.

[snip]

BIRD FLU A DISTRACTION?

Tony Nelson, a pediatrics professor at Chinese University in Hong Kong, fears that bird flu — which has killed at least 144 people worldwide since late 2003 — is taking too much attention away from other very pressing diseases.

Many health experts fear the H5N1 bird flu virus might mutate and pass easily among people, triggering a pandemic that could kill millions worldwide.

“Things like SARS, avian flu are high-profile and get a lot of media attention but in terms of global deaths, it is a small percentage. The reason why we are afraid of bird flu is because it affects us personally in the rich world,” Nelson said.

“If you are a policymaker in a rich country, you don’t really worry about rotavirus because it is viewed as relatively mild,” he said, referring to the leading cause of diarrhea in infants and young children, killing 500,000 of them a year.

[snip]

http://tinyurl.com/yc9efd

Tom DVM – at 17:48

Comment Ottawan 17:16.

Pandemic Flu Patients Should Stay Home.

Isn’t that just so convenient…takes existing ‘spin’ to a whole new level.

Ottawan – at 18:08

Tom -

Convenient, and more than a little chilling. I get the sense that the “spin” industry is really gearing up with this.

Pixie – at 22:11

October 24, 2006 / http://tinyurl.com/ynfwcd

Study finds flu vaccine safe for toddlers

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Seasonal flu vaccinations are safe for children 6 to 23 months of age, the largest study of the question to date reported on Tuesday.

“This is really good news for both doctors and parents who want to protect young children from influenza and complications of this nasty illness,” said Dr. Simon Hambidge of Kaiser Permanente Colorado, chief author of the report.

<snip>

Pixie – at 22:15

Comment: Have we seen this story before? Please follow the link to a very extensive chart detailing each and every H5N1 victim (very impressive effort for MSM).

A Closer Look at Bird Flu’s Victims

THE WALL STREET JOURNAL ONLINE / Oct. 16, 2006

Researchers will never know precisely how all the more than 150 people who have died of H5N1 avian influenza acquired the disease. But the details of their investigations offer glimpses into the lives of the victims — who have been largely young, in close contact with poultry, and mostly from Southeast Asia. While the fatality count has slowly ticked higher, the victims’ stories — or what little we know of them — have sometimes been overshadowed by broader concerns about food safety, bird migratory patterns and feared mutations that could make the virus easily transmissible between people, potentially sparking a global pandemic.

Here is a look at the victims, based on updates on avian flu from the WHO. Click on the highlighted column headers to re-sort by country or age.

This list is a regularly updated work in progress. Write to Matt Phillips at matt.phillips@wsj.com

http://tinyurl.com/nyf64

Libby in Atlanta – at 22:26

DennisC – at 12:31 bird cases- Nigeria Is this “cases” in people or in ckickens?

DennisCat 22:36

Libby in Atlanta – at 22:26

It doesn’t say if it was people or chickens, but I a fairly sure it is chickens. Read the companion pieces in the paper. They are sampling and culling chickens. If it was people, then the news system would be going crazy by now.

I am not great at reading sequences, but it seems that the Nigeria sequences are not the “bad” Q lake strain like was in Egypt. But I should leave such conjecture to others.

Tom DVM – at 23:32

Pixie 22:15. Thanks but I wouldn’t give MSM or regulators a whole lot of credit here…

…because we have a lot more to learn from the survivors lives then unfortunately from the dead.

Why has there been no examinations followed by publication of long term studies concerning chronic health conditions after the fact?

This reminds me of SARS. It’s like survivors of these emerging exotic diseases fall in to the ‘rabbit hole’ never to be seen again.

witness – at 23:35

An awful lot of this going on lately.” 36 W&M students show flu symptoms” Thirty-six students at the college of William and Mary have sought treatment since Sat. for flulike symptoms that include nausea, fever and an elevated white cell count. ------And This” School Illness health Alert” More than a dozen students at a Chesterfield school are sick. Officials are taking drastic measures to keep the illness from spreading. The infection is called shigellosis. It has symptoms such as diarrhea, fever, nausea and vomiting.With 19 cases of it connected to Betty Weaver Elementary School----If anyone thinks this is important please post the links(don’t know how) www.timesdispatch.com and www.wric.com

25 October 2006

cactus – at 00:08
  Shigella is one of those nasty water born diseases that you have a good filter for when TSHTF.

 And, most flues don`t usually  have a high white count, that`s probably some sort of bacteria, which does
AnnieBat 00:32

Further to white cell blood count - bacteria sends it high, virus keeps (sends) it low - basic rule of thumb apparently.

AnnieBat 00:40

I am about to start the News Summary for today, then I will start a new thread, so you might like to hold your posting for about 20 minutes or so ..

Cheers and thanks

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.NewsReportsForOctober24
Page last modified on October 25, 2006, at 12:40 AM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Niger H 5 N 1

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Niger H 5 N 1

15 June 2006

niman – at 12:47

HA sequence from Niger available at GenBank

A/duck/Niger/914/2006(H5N1)

Sequence is easily distinguished from Nigeria H5N1 and has a number of polymorphisms not found in other Qinghai sequences, but readily detected in other H5N1’s from Asia.

Another advertisement for recombination.

ricewiki – at 12:51

So this means…. ? That this is yet another “type” or “strain” of H5N1 floating around? Last I understood, there were at least four different distinguishable strains.

(my apologies, I haven’t been keeping up on the strict science lately)

wetDirt – at 13:01

My take on what it means:

There are two lines of thought on how H5N1 spread from Qinghai: One group says it took the train—that is, (commercial) birds were smuggled across the border of china into tibet, then along the route of the Trans-siberia railway into the edge of europe, then across Turkey/Iraq by tramp steamer to northern Africa, where they were smuggled deeper into Africa. If this is to be true, then the sequences found in Africa would be pure Qinghai—that is, they would not show evidence of mixing with local, non H5N1 low-path influenza. They would be relatively pure and unchanged.

Another school of thought says that the principal vector is by migrating wild birds. If this is true, and because birds migrate often in a burst-pause pattern, that is, fly a while, rest up awhile, fly awhile, etc, they have the chance to mingle with local birds carring local avian influenzas. They swap a few infections, and the strains mingle, and now you have a Qinghqi base with small bits that match up with local, non H5N1 avian influenzas.

So which idea is supported by the new sequences? Migratory birds.

Why is this important? Because you only have enough money to fix the problem once, and you better pick the right problem to fix. If the problem is a smuggling problem, you stick your money in education and in border enforcement, and poultry inspections. If the problem is migratory waterfowl, you put the money in surveillance and make sure chicken ranches have good biosecurity and birds are kept away from migrating waterfowl.

And, it gives you information on the makeup of the strains should you need to know for vaccine purposes.

ricewiki – at 13:10

Ah, ok. That’s a great explanation, wetDirt! Well said.

niman – at 13:11

wetDirt,

You are once again spot on with the analysis. This is definitely the Qinhai strain, but each has it’s own travel schedule and can be readily distinguished. If the H5N1 in Nigeria came via trade, then the H5N1 in adjacent Niger would match. If the arrival was by bird, then there would be several varieties.

This sequence points squarly at the migratory birds.

The constellation of shared polymorphisms is like a fingerprint.

This can be seen in the small branches on the tree of Qinghai sequences in Europe in the top and bottom on the tree (tree split for readability purposes).

Kathy in FL – at 13:25

wetDirt – at 13:01

Oh … my … goodness. Now even I can understand this bit of science. <grin> I even have a college education, but you guys normally leave me in the dust holding my aching head.

Seriously though, while I read most of the “high science” threads I usually only understand a particle of what is being said.

Thank you wetdirt. Putting it into a visual context really helped.

niman – at 13:28

The Niger sequence has 6 polymorphisms that are present in a small subset of the Qinghai strain. The 6 polymorphisms are G253A, A524G, C1198T, G1240A, G1447A, T1603C.

Notice that all changes are transitions (replacing a purine with a purine A=G, or a pyrimadine with a pyrimadine C=T). Its really a binomial system.

These are all transitions and all have a clear H5N1 rap sheet.

These changes are NOT random mutations.

They were all acquired from kissin cousins.

niman – at 13:44

Stamped passport of A524G (also in Nigeria isolate)

DQ447199 A/chicken/Egypt/960N3–004/2006 2006 H5N1

DQ406728 A/chicken/Nigeria/641/2006 2006 H5N1

DQ515984 A/Cygnus olor/Czech Republic/5170/2006 2006 H5N1

DQ435200 A/domestic cat/Iraq/820/2006 2006 H5N1

DQ435201 A/domestic goose/Iraq/812/2006 2006 H5N1

DQ659113 A/duck/Niger/914/2006 2006 H5N1

DQ464377 A/Egypt/2782-NAMRU3/2006 2006 H5N1

DQ435202 A/Iraq/207-NAMRU3/2006 2006 H5N1

DQ458992 A/mallard/Bavaria/1/2006 2006 H5N1

DQ449031 A/mallard/Italy/332/2006 2006 H5N1

AB233319 A/bar-headed goose/Mongolia/1/05 2005 H5N1

DQ320898 A/chicken/Guangxi/604/2005 2005 H5N1

DQ449632 A/chicken/Kurgan/05/2005 2005 H5N1

DQ323672 A/chicken/Kurgan/3/2005 2005 H5N1

DQ389158 A/Cygnus olor/Astrakhan/Ast05–2−1/2005 2005 H5N1

DQ434889 A/Cygnus olor/Astrakhan/Ast05–2−10/2005 2005 H5N1

DQ343502 A/Cygnus olor/Astrakhan/Ast05–2−2/2005 2005 H5N1

DQ358746 A/Cygnus olor/Astrakhan/Ast05–2−3/2005 2005 H5N1

DQ363918 A/Cygnus olor/Astrakhan/Ast05–2−4/2005 2005 H5N1

DQ365004 A/Cygnus olor/Astrakhan/Ast05–2−5/2005 2005 H5N1

DQ364996 A/Cygnus olor/Astrakhan/Ast05–2−6/2005 2005 H5N1

DQ363923 A/Cygnus olor/Astrakhan/Ast05–2−7/2005 2005 H5N1

DQ399540 A/Cygnus olor/Astrakhan/Ast05–2−8/2005 2005 H5N1

DQ399547 A/Cygnus olor/Astrakhan/Ast05–2−9/2005 2005 H5N1

DQ320899 A/duck/Guangxi/793/2005 2005 H5N1

DQ449640 A/duck/Kurgan/08/2005 2005 H5N1

DQ320897 A/quail/Guangxi/575/2005 2005 H5N1

DQ320137 A/swan/Astrakhan/1/2005 2005 H5N1

DQ407519 A/turkey/Turkey/1/2005 2005 H5N1

AB233320 A/whooper swan/Mongolia/3/05 2005 H5N1

AB233321 A/whooper swan/Mongolia/4/05 2005 H5N1

AB233322 A/whooper swan/Mongolia/6/05 2005 H5N1

ISDN140936 A/Whooping swan/Mongolia/244/2005 2005 H5N1

AY651346 A/Ck/Hong Kong/31.2/2002 2002 H5N1

AY651350 A/Ck/Hong Kong/3176.3/2002 2002 H5N1

AY651347 A/Ck/Hong Kong/37.4/2002 2002 H5N1

AY651345 A/Gf/Hong Kong/38/2002 2002 H5N1

AY575880 A/pheasant/Hong Kong/675.14/02 2002 H5N1

AY651348 A/SCk/Hong Kong/YU100/2002 2002 H5N1

M18450 A/Duck/Ireland/113/83 1983 H5N8

wetDirt – at 13:46

OK. My take on what this means:

There are two schools of thought about how changes arise in the H5N1 sequence. One school of thought is that these represent random mutations in a virus notorious for random mutations. When you see a change in the sequence, it happened by Cosmic Rays from Outer Space™, and will probably not be repeated elsewhere. Mutations, however, are not expected to be coordinated, that is, it would be wierd for two mutations a certain distance apart to happen the same way at the same time.

Another school of thought is that, while mutations do happen, the bad ones disappear fast, and the good ones are saved, like halloween candy, to be pulled out later. These little packages show up as a ‘chunk’, with specific changes, that remain stable with time, some of which stay geographically isolated, and some of which are widespread.

So what Niman has noticed is that all these changes have a certain pattern: The A purine is swapped for a G purine, or a C pyrimadine with a T pyramidine. Say the purines are bumps and the pyramidines are valleys. Now if you imagine the key-lock thing, what this means is that the little teeth on the key change shape only a tiny bit, because you are swapping one hill for another hill, and a valley for another valley. Similar shapes. And he is noting that it is a consistent pattern of transitions, it’s like the virus saying, hey, look, guys, cool, I can pick the lock with either version of this key, as long as I keep the same general shape.

And he is saying these are no longer random changes, that he sees this pattern over and over and it fits into a larger pattern.

niman – at 13:52

C1198T shared by H5N1 but none are Qinghai sequences

ISDN138756 A/chicken/Malaysia/935/2006 2006 H5N1

DQ659113 A/duck/Niger/914/2006 2006 H5N1

DQ095624 A/Chicken/Yunnan/447/05 2005 H5N1

DQ095625 A/Chicken/Yunnan/493/05 2005 H5N1

AY651322 A/Dk/Indonesia/MS/2004 2004 H5N1

DQ017300 A/duck/Nakornsawan-2–02/2004 2004 H5N1

AY651323 A/Ck/Indonesia/2A/2003 2003 H5N1

AF509026 A/Chicken/Hong Kong/822.1/01 2001 H5N1

AF509028 A/Chicken/Hong Kong/830.2/01 2001 H5N1

AF509029 A/Chicken/Hong Kong/858.3/01 2001 H5N1

AF509030 A/Chicken/Hong Kong/867.1/01 2001 H5N1

AF509033 A/Chicken/Hong Kong/876.1/01 2001 H5N1

AF509031 A/Chicken/Hong Kong/879.1/01 2001 H5N1

AF509034 A/Chicken/Hong Kong/891.1/01 2001 H5N1

AF509035 A/Chicken/Hong Kong/893.2/01 2001 H5N1

AF509024 A/Chicken/Hong Kong/SF219/01 2001 H5N1

AF509017 A/Chicken/Hong Kong/YU562/01 2001 H5N1

AY221529 A/Chicken/Hong Kong/YU562/01 2001 H5N1

AF509018 A/Chicken/Hong Kong/YU563/01 2001 H5N1

AY221528 A/Chicken/Hong Kong/YU822.2/01 2001 H5N1

AY221527 A/Chicken/Hong Kong/YU822.2/01-MB 2001 H5N1

AF509023 A/Pigeon/Hong Kong/SF215/01 2001 H5N1

AF509022 A/Quail/Hong Kong/SF203/01 2001 H5N1

AF509021 A/Silky Chicken/Hong Kong/SF189/01 2001 H5N1

lugon – at 13:57

it would be wierd for two mutations a certain distance apart to happen the same way at the same time

I’m an ignorant looking for enlightment on this one.

Could it be that there are many many many mutations inside the cell, and only those that work get selected, so that it’s not that difficult to see the same wheel reinvented all over the place? I mean, maybe random mutation mechanisms produce a million varieties, and only a hundred are able to make a viable virion, so that most mutations are hidden from view (they never make it on their way out of the cell). With enough random mutations, you might have “twins” that have emerged at random from different branches of the tree: they look like they are relatives, but they are really reinventions of the same thing without family relationship.

I really don’t know.

Thanks.

wetDirt – at 14:01

“niman – at 13:28 The Niger sequence has 6 polymorphisms that are present in a small subset of the Qinghai strain. The 6 polymorphisms are G253A, A524G, C1198T, G1240A, G1447A, T1603C. “

So Henry, Taking any of these polymorphisms at random, how stable are they over time? Are there, say, 100 base pairs that have remained identical for over 5 years? I would like to calculate the probability of that happening using everyone’s quoted mutation rate. I need a nice even number of base pairs because I’m that lazy.

niman – at 14:08

G1240A matches only one Qinghai sequence, but matches low pat from Europe and North America

DQ659113 A/duck/Niger/914/2006 2006 H5N1

AB233319 A/bar-headed goose/Mongolia/1/05 2005 H5N1

DQ309440 A/duck/BritishColumbia/CN26−6/05 2005 H5N2

DQ095629 A/Duck/Fujian/1734/05 2005 H5N1

DQ320897 A/quail/Guangxi/575/2005 2005 H5N1

DQ320893 A/chicken/Guangxi/2439/2004 2004 H5N1

DQ320883 A/duck/Guangxi/1311/2004 2004 H5N1

DQ320885 A/duck/Guangxi/1586/2004 2004 H5N1

DQ320886 A/duck/Guangxi/1681/2004 2004 H5N1

DQ320887 A/duck/Guangxi/1793/2004 2004 H5N1

DQ320890 A/duck/Guangxi/2291/2004 2004 H5N1

DQ320892 A/duck/Guangxi/2396/2004 2004 H5N1

DQ320881 A/goose/Guangxi/1097/2004 2004 H5N1

DQ320882 A/goose/Guangxi/1198/2004 2004 H5N1

DQ320888 A/goose/Guangxi/1832/2004 2004 H5N1

DQ320889 A/goose/Guangxi/2112/2004 2004 H5N1

DQ320891 A/goose/Guangxi/2383/2004 2004 H5N1

AY590577 A/openbill/Thailand/CU-2/2004 2004 H5N1

CY005927 A/shorebird/Delaware/101/2004 2004 H5N7

CY005969 A/shorebird/Delaware/75/2004 2004 H5N7

AY651336 A/Viet Nam/3062/2004 2004 H5N1

AY573917 A/chicken/Taiwan/1209/03 2003 H5N2

AY747609 A/swine/Fujian/1/2003 2003 H5N1

AY296079 A/duck/ME/151895–7A/02 2002 H5N2

AY296080 A/duck/NY/185502/02 2002 H5N2

AY296081 A/duck/NY/186875/02 2002 H5N2

AY296086 A/duck/NY/191255–59/02 2002 H5N8

AY296082 A/duck/NY/191255–79/02 2002 H5N2

AY995886 A/mallard/Sweden/22/02 2002 H5N9

AY995887 A/mallard/Sweden/27/02 2002 H5N9

AY995888 A/mallard/Sweden/28/02 2002 H5N9

AY995889 A/mallard/Sweden/31/02 2002 H5N2

AY995890 A/mallard/Sweden/37/02 2002 H5N9

AY995892 A/mallard/Sweden/40/02 2002 H5N6

AY995893 A/mallard/Sweden/49/02 2002 H5N9

AY995894 A/mallard/Sweden/52/02 2002 H5N9

AY995895 A/mallard/Sweden/58/02 2002 H5N3

AY995896 A/mallard/Sweden/64/02 2002 H5N2

AY995897 A/mallard/Sweden/79/02 2002 H5N9

AY995898 A/mallard/Sweden/80/02 2002 H5N9

AY296083 A/turkey/CA/D0208651-C/02 2002 H5N2

AY075033 A/Duck/Hong Kong/380.5/2001 2001 H5N1

AY296077 A/duck/NJ/117228–7/01 2001 H5N2

AY747617 A/swine/Fujian/F1/2001 2001 H5N1

AY296076 A/unknown/NY/101250–18/01 2001 H5N2

AY296075 A/unknown/NY/9899–6/01 2001 H5N2

AY296073 A/chukkar/NY/51375/00 2000 H5N2

AY296072 A/duck/NY/44018–2/00 2000 H5N2

AY585377 A/duck/Zhejiang/52/2000 2000 H5N1

AJ305306 A/chicken/Italy/8/98 1998 H5N2

AF194169 A/Chicken/Italy/312/97 1997 H5N2

AF194990 A/Chicken/Italy/367/97 1997 H5N2

AF194991 A/Guinea Fowl/Italy/330/97 1997 H5N2

U79448 A/Chicken/Queretaro/7653–20/951659 1995 H5N2

CY006040 A/chicken/Hidalgo/28159–232/1994 1994 H5N2

U28920 A/Emu/Texas/39442/93 (HP progeny) 1993 H5N2

U28919 A/Emu/Texas/39442/93 (non-HP parent) 1993 H5N2

U67783 A/Mallard/Ohio/556/1987 1987 H5N9

U69277 A/Mallard/Wisconsin/944/82 1982 H5

AF082040 A/Duck/Minnesota/1525/81 1981 H5N1

U79454 A/Turkey/Minnesota/3689–1551/81 1981 H5N2

CY005918 A/mallard duck/Alberta/57/1976 1976 H5N2

U79452 A/Mallard/Wisconsin/169/75 1975 H5N3

U79456 A/Turkey/Wisconsin/68 1968 H5N9

AB241613 A/turkey/Ontario/7732/66 1966 H5

M30122 A/turkey/Ontario/7732/66 1966 H5N9

U20460 A/tern/South Africa/61 1961 H5N3

niman – at 14:12

wetDirt,

There is not much of a database on the Qinghai strain (it was just identifed a year ago) but for this HA sequence there are over 1600 bases and only 6 are not common (and all 6 can be easily found in other H5N1s).

wetDirt – at 14:12

Are we talking about an exact match, that is , 100%? If so, then your last entry, a tern from 1961, says that the this polymorphism has remined unchanged for, umm, let’s see, 45 years, hanging around in low-path land.

niman – at 14:28

Some polymorphisms go back to 1918, but that is just a match at that position. The earlier eact matches I talked about are long stretches that including a long string of polymorphisms.

niman – at 14:30

G1447A Again no match with other Qinghai strains, but easily found in other H5N1s

DQ659113 A/duck/Niger/914/2006 2006 H5N1

DQ320876 A/chicken/Fujian/1042/2005 2005 H5N1

DQ320875 A/duck/Fujian/897/2005 2005 H5N1

DQ320900 A/duck/Guangxi/951/2005 2005 H5N1

DQ320901 A/duck/Guangzhou/20/2005 2005 H5N1

DQ320911 A/duck/Hunan/1265/2005 2005 H5N1

DQ320912 A/duck/Hunan/1608/2005 2005 H5N1

DQ320913 A/duck/Hunan/1652/2005 2005 H5N1

DQ320939 A/duck/Vietnam/568/2005 2005 H5N1

DQ320896 A/goose/Guangxi/345/2005 2005 H5N1

DQ095628 A/Goose/Shantou/1621/05 2005 H5N1

DQ320915 A/goose/Shantou/2216/2005 2005 H5N1

DQ320916 A/migratory duck/Jiangxi/1653/2005 2005 H5N1

DQ320917 A/migratory duck/Jiangxi/1657/2005 2005 H5N1

DQ320918 A/migratory duck/Jiangxi/1701/2005 2005 H5N1

ISDN117777 A/Viet Nam/JP4207/2005 2005 H5N1

DQ320894 A/chicken/Guangxi/2448/2004 2004 H5N1

DQ320895 A/chicken/Guangxi/2461/2004 2004 H5N1

ISDN48972 A/Chicken/Hu bei/14/2004 2004 H5N1

AY684706 A/chicken/Hubei/327/2004 2004 H5N1

AY770079 A/chicken/Hubei/489/2004 2004 H5N1

AY830774 A/chicken/Macheng/2004 2004 H5N1

DQ083567 A/Ostrich/Samut Prakan/Thailand/CU-19/04 2004 H5N1

DQ083574 A/ostrich/Samut Prakan/Thailand/CU-31/04 2004 H5N1

AY651362 A/peregrine falcon/Hong Kong/D0028/2004 2004 H5N1

AY950236 A/swan/Guangxi/307/2004 2004 H5N1

AY651354 A/Ck/Hong Kong/NT93/2003 2003 H5N1

AY651356 A/Ck/Hong Kong/SSP141/2003 2003 H5N1

AY651355 A/Ck/Hong Kong/WF157/2003 2003 H5N1

niman – at 14:37

T1603 matches the low path ducks from Japan and a series of Qinghai isolates from Astrakhan but no match with Nigeria.

G253A has too many matches to list (several hundred H5N1’s) but no sharing wth any other Qinghai strains.

DQ659113 A/duck/Niger/914/2006 2006 H5N1

DQ389158 A/Cygnus olor/Astrakhan/Ast05–2−1/2005 2005 H5N1

DQ434889 A/Cygnus olor/Astrakhan/Ast05–2−10/2005 2005 H5N1

DQ343502 A/Cygnus olor/Astrakhan/Ast05–2−2/2005 2005 H5N1

DQ358746 A/Cygnus olor/Astrakhan/Ast05–2−3/2005 2005 H5N1

DQ363918 A/Cygnus olor/Astrakhan/Ast05–2−4/2005 2005 H5N1

DQ365004 A/Cygnus olor/Astrakhan/Ast05–2−5/2005 2005 H5N1

DQ364996 A/Cygnus olor/Astrakhan/Ast05–2−6/2005 2005 H5N1

DQ363923 A/Cygnus olor/Astrakhan/Ast05–2−7/2005 2005 H5N1

DQ399540 A/Cygnus olor/Astrakhan/Ast05–2−8/2005 2005 H5N1

DQ399547 A/Cygnus olor/Astrakhan/Ast05–2−9/2005 2005 H5N1

DQ449640 A/duck/Kurgan/08/2005 2005 H5N1

DQ320137 A/swan/Astrakhan/1/2005 2005 H5N1

AB241624 A/duck/Hokkaido/101/04 2004 H5N3

AB241625 A/duck/Hokkaido/193/04 2004 H5N3

AB241626 A/duck/Hokkaido/299/04 2004 H5N3

niman – at 15:00

Here is earlier commentary of the Nigerian sequence. It also had 6 “informative” polymorphisms, but they all matched other Qinghai isolates - 4 with Kurgan and 2 with Mongolia.

wetDirt – at 15:50

Dr Niman,

Your argument is based on the idea that these polymorphisms are not random, and that they are persistent across time and space. It seems to me that your data on regions of identity has gotten a lot of notice (admittedly, some tin-hat notice) because it directly supports your case that random mutations are rare, not common, in currently circulating strains of influenza A, both low and high path. Perhaps you could dig out some other examples of identical sequences, perhaps encompassing a few polymorphims, in low-path as well as hi-path strains. A region of identity in a low-path north American strain that persists for five or more years would be a powerful argument against the tin-foil-hatters, and strenghthen your argument that these regions are highly conserved.

And also. If you get Science, what do you think of the article from mid-February, vol 311 page 960, using the argument that recombination is an error-correcting mechanism. I though immediately of you when I read it.

26 July 2006

niman – at 09:50

The recent sequence from the Ivory Coast represents yet another introduction of H5N1 in western Africa (and more recombination).

The filed PCT has some comments on cached sequences correcting errors.

23 August 2006

moeb CFR6248at 19:37

yer a tricky devil mr. DemFromCt :-)

DemFromCTat 19:55

spam is spam and must be assimilated.

24 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 22:00

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.NigerH5N1
Page last modified on October 24, 2006, at 10:00 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Why Dried Food

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Why Dried Food

08 June 2006

katherine – at 19:50

I have seen that many people are stocking dried food. what is the appeal? is it taste, weight? wholesomeness? what am I missing here?

Tall in MS – at 19:54

Primarily dried food, including dehydrated and freeze dried, has a much longer shelf life than other foods. Less weight is a bonus.

Carrey in VA – at 19:55

For me, it takes up less space, it lasts longer than fresh or canned. And it’s lighter if you are putting it in a BOB. I just received my order of dried eggs this week. I’m SOO excited.

katherine – at 19:56

thanks

Kim – at 20:02

Dehydrated food takes up less space and keeps much longer than other forms of food storage. For example, you can get nearly 10 pounds of cooked, dehydrated hambuger into a 1/2 gallon jar. It needs no refrigeration, and can easily sit on a shelf for two years before use. And when you’re ready to use it, just dump some in a container and cover with water til rehydrated, then just heat and eat. Dehydrated food is excellent for camping and emergencies, because you really don’t need heat to cook the hamburger at the time you use it, you’ve already done that before drying. I dry lots of broccoli too… I can fit 5 lbs of fresh frozen broccoli into a one quart jar after dehydrating. Makes excellent soup!

wetDirt – at 20:07

Longevity and weight, therefore, size. A number 10 can of dried carrots equals about 40 regular cans, and weighs a couple of pounds. However, once it’s open, it will suck moisture out of the air, so you have to either use it, or repack it in glass jars or the like. There are two different kinds of dried foods, by the way, regular dried food, and freeze-dried foods. Freeze-dried is more expensive and is considered higher quality. Regular dried food loses some nutrients compared with fresh, but then, so do frozen or canned foods. So the reason people stock dried foods is so that they can pack a lot of food into a small space, and basically forget about it until it’s needed. But it must be soaked or cooked to rehydrate, which will entail more work. But consider: once the initial panic is over, extended emergencies get boring fast. Spending a lot of time in food prep is a useful way to occupy your hands and mind.

Carrey in VA – at 20:15

Speaking of dried foods. Does anyone know if buying a #10 can of dried brocoli for $20 is cheaper than buying it frozen from say Sam’s Club and drying it yourself?

wetDirt – at 20:26

Well, figure your #10 can is about 30 pounds of broc, plus a can, and can-sealing technology. You would need to buy & dry 30# of broc for less than, say ,$15 to break even, unless you pay a lot for shipping. I worked it out, and decided it was a push, and bought rather than dried. That said, I’m currently drying a windfall of 50# of free onions. Can’t beat free.

Kim – at 20:31

Here’s a great link that discusses dehydrated veggies http://waltonfeed.com/self/deh-veg.html

Carrey in VA at 20:15, a #10 can of dried broccoli contains the equivalent of 20 cups of fresh broccoli. A #10 can at Walton Feed costs $16.95 + shipping. I buy large bags of frozen broccoli florets at Sam’s Club pretty cheap (maybe $4–5, can’t remember exactly). I’d guess it may take 2 bags of the frozen to equal 20 cups. So yes, I think you’d save money if you dehydrate it yourself. Nice thing about dehydrating frozen veggies is they’re already cleaned, blanched, and cut (although I usually chop the broccoli up into somewhat smaller pieces)

Kim – at 20:35

Here’s a link to the label information for a lot of different dried foods from Walton Feed. http://waltonfeed.com/self/labels/index.html

mountaintop – at 20:37

If you are on a low salt diet you should check to sodium content. Most of these meals contain 1000–2000 milligrams in a single meal.

Kim – at 20:41

I don’t add salt to my dried veggies (or meat), and don’t think any of the commercial suppliers do either.

Kim – at 20:51

Other great stuff to dehydrate to make cooking soups, stews, etc MUCH easier… celery, green peppers, onions, garlic, any leafy spices (basil, oregano, flat-leaf parsley, rosemary, etc). It is SO much easier to get a jar off the shelf of your pantry to season your food, rather than all that washing, chopping etc of the fresh stuff, and taste is equal if not better. Each summer I grow 4 basil plants, 2 flat-leaf parsley plants, and one rosemary plant, which is enough to keep me in these spices for a solid year (or more). And the smell while they’re drying is absolutely heavenly!

Melanie – at 20:53

Freeze dried is the favorite of campers and backpackers and canoists because it weighs next to nothing and reconstitutes to pretty tasty stuff. It isn’t cheap, but if you don’t have a lot of room to spare, it is part of the solution.

katherine – at 21:34

With a 2 year old and a three year old I don’t see myself drying food but i am interested. Honestly before I buy $70 of carrots does this stuff taste good?

katherine – at 22:04

okay just talked with husband and will look into buying dehydrater. any recommendations?

Kim – at 22:38

katherine at 22:04, if you’re looking for a good dehydrator look at the Excalibur dehydrators. A little pricey, but if you’ll be doing much dehydrating at all, they really are a good deal. I am REALLY glad that I dumped my stupid round-stacked dehydrator in favor of the Excalibur. It dries things evenly without shuffling trays and has an adjustable thermostat so you can dry different foods at the proper temperature, and a timer so you can go off and leave things and still have them come out well. Wouldn’t trade it for anything. www.excaliburdehydrator.com

Also, yes, dehydrated tastes as good as fresh, but sometimes the texture is a little different.

centella – at 23:18

katherine – at 19:50

There is of course the king and queen of dehydrated food: Rice and beans. They last along time. They are compact. I hear that the combination provides a complete protein (but I have not verified that yet). But best of all, they are dirt cheap. I have been buying 25 lbs bags of rice for under $10 each and 15 lbs bags of beans for about $12. That is a huge amount of food (after it is cooked) for about $25. If you sprout the beans you get even more. The only down side is you need water.

Mojo – at 23:19

I have an Excalibur and love it.

centella – at 23:21

Correction “25 pound bags of beans” $12.

katherine – at 23:30

we have the rice and beans covered. actually have about 50+ pounds of beans. looked at the excalibur and agree it does seem the nicest and I trust everyones opinion here….okay back to costco for produce. the work never ends.

katherine – at 23:30

thanks everyone. i really do value the input

09 June 2006

16fretti – at 02:28

One advantage I see with dehydrated foods is that you can avoid spoiled food. How many times do you buy a quantity of fruits or veggies and don’t use all before it goes bad?

There are two solutions to this. If you are buying dehydrated foods to begin with, you could rehydrate only the amount that you need. There would be no waste. If you are dehydrating your own foods, you could dehydrate excess foods before they spoil or purchase foods on sale and dehydrate them to save money.

It’s a good thing. :)

Nikolai---Sydney – at 04:54

For storing an ‘emergency extension’ to present plans, (to rely on in the UNLIKELY case of a long, killer-pandemic), I can’t beat rice and beans, plus maybe sugar and salt etc, for good use of space, money economy and long storage life, IMHO.

lauraB – at 09:11

Don’t order from Walton unless you don’t need it right away - I placed an order a month ago and just received notice YESTERDAY that it shipped. www.honeyville.com is great for customer service, price and speed. Their selection is not as big as Walton but if you want to get some basics easily and quickly Honeyville is great.

One bit of warning - the cans they come in are GIGANTIC! They take up soooooo much space. I thought about re-packaging them but am concerned that by opening them I am shortening their shelf-life.

BTW - I only plan on using many of the items if we are running out, as mix-ins into other things, etc. I’ve had de-hydrated before and personally it’s just not the same!

Sahara – at 09:18

Before anyone buys large quantities of dehydrated stuff, I’d recommend they get some small packets of the food and try it out. It saved me from buying huge cans of dehydrated scrambled bacon and eggs, which I thought tasted to much like the bonito used to flavor them (dehydrated fish.) Not to my taste. However, we did like the granola and dried apples. Outdoor stores (REI, Gander Mountain) have individual packets.

Carrey in VA – at 09:19

I got eggs from Honeyvillegrain and they took less than a week to get here. and shipping is $4 and change NO MATTER WHAT! So if you were to get 5000 pounds of stuff shipping is still only $4.XX

lbb – at 16:41

I dunno about the excalibur dehydrator. FWIW, I’ve been using a plain old American Harvest round stackable tray one, had it for…sheesh, probably fifteen years now. It’s not what you’d use to make a six month supply of dehydrated food for fifty people in a weekend, but if you’re not trying to do it all at once, this works pretty well.

Off to the store for more x-lean ground beef to dehydrate…and maybe some strawberries for fruit leather too!

Safety Lady – at 18:01

I have three tiered stocking: fresh foods those that can be eaten in short time. This also includes meat etc in the freezer. I have canned foods, home canned and store bought cans, then dehydrated foods home dehydrated and store bought. I plan on using the fresh first and intersperse the canned and dryed at a later date. We have acclimated our bodies to eat wheat (fresh ground, sprouted etc.) We are used to heavy fiber and taste. We have practiced the different ways of cooking. We sprout. Don’t try to eat your preps without getting used to the fiber first. DH is adventroous so I can play with storage food. Test your tvp now. Don’t want the kids to whine and complain when that is what you fixed for dinner. Try rehydrating you preps now. Some prep sites have sample cans to try.

OKbirdwatcherat 18:03

lauraB - Can’t vouch for it ‘cause I haven’t cracked open any of my pouches or cans, but I understand freeze-dried tastes the best and the processes they are using for dehydrated food these days are greatly improved. Maybe we’ll be pleasantly surprised.

katherine – at 19:01

just ordered freeze dried cans and some sites are sold out (mountain house) due to avian flu concerns. other sites are out of stock of many key items. hmmmm troubles brewin’

Wolf – at 19:28

I got a bunch of the Walton Feeds goods (took a little while, even a few months ago). Sure wish I’d known about the $4 shipping then!!! Still, is peace of mind, and as far as storage, well, if we have to move quick - “don’t forget the endtable in the bedroom!!!!”

lbb – at 22:28

other sites are out of stock of many key items. hmmmm troubles brewin’

So, make your own — not freeze-dried but dehydrated. It’s what I do - you won’t find me plunking down $7-$8 a go for a Mountain House freeze-dried meal. Mine cost about $2-$2.50 a serving.

Also, what SafetyLady said. Try the stuff now, all of it. Never mind what’s on sale, buy one and try it and make sure you can make it palatable. Sure, you’ll eat it if you’re starving — and healthy. Sick people don’t eat if it doesn’t taste good.

anonymous – at 22:50

I recently sent away for a sample of the Mountain House freeze dried lasagna, it was fantastic. You would never know it was dried food!

Mosaic – at 22:56

We (to be read ‘me’) have dried a lot of fruits and vegetables to store. Yes it can be less expensive if you shop for your produce carefully or grow your own. It can keep for a long time too if you store it properly and live in an environment with lower humidity.

Dont forget to include the cost of electricity to run the dehydrator in your calculations of cost. :-)

Suzyinaz – at 23:06

lbb – at 22:28

How do you store your home dehydrated food? Do you know how long it would store (keep) in a mason jar that is sealed with one of those sealing vacuums that suck the air out of the mason jars? How long have you personally kept dehydrated food that was still good to eat.

Sorry for so many questions, but with a possible bird flu pandemic, our families may have to depend on what we can do for ourself.

Thanks in advance for your answers.

10 June 2006

at 10:59

bump

11 June 2006

annon22 – at 22:15

How long does home dried food store and still be usable?

12 June 2006

Kim – at 00:57

I’m currently using some dried fruits & veggies stored 7 years ago, they’re fine. I’ve used dehydrated hamburger 2 years old, but I think it could go longer than that.

EnoughAlreadyat 01:16

Extension agencies in every state can give you info on dehydrating foods. Most canning/freezing books have sections on dehydration.

I have dried herbs for years and have never had any problems. I have just recently purchased dehydrators and began utilizing this method in my preps. This was prompted by 2 things… this flu pandemic, and last years hurricane season. I don’t have room in my freezer and I don’t want to loose what is in my freezer. If directions are followed, dehydrated foods will last at least as long as the recommendation. I assume nuttritional value may begin to decline after time recommended, but I am not sure about this. My in-laws have dehydrated foods for ions and have had no problems. As I type, I am dehydrating 3 racks of onions from my garden and 3 racks of apples. Dehydrating is so simple. Cleaning and preparing is the biggest chore. Once you put it into the dehydrater, all you do is check occassionally to see if the stuff is ready. I also have dehydrated food from my freezer (i.e., chopped bell peppers.) I store my stuff in jars with seals… canister type. Dehydration of foods greatly reduces storage space because it shrinks the stuff massively. Storage information is included in the resources I mentioned above.

I like the dehydraters that have temperature control and a fan. Quicker.

23 June 2006

bevo_gt – at 18:16

Most freeze dried fruits and vegetables that are sealed in #10 cans with oxygen absorbers will last for 10 to 15 years under good storage conditions. Beans and rice, as mentioned above are excellent candidates for long term storage. Also, as mentioned above, freeze dried fruits and vegetables are more expensive but offer an excellent nutritional profile because they do not have any additional sugar or preservatives added as some dried and dehydrated products do. Freeze dried fruits are just plain fruit with the water removed. My favorite are the freeze dried strawberries. They just have so much flavor and all of the vitamins and minerals of fresh strawberries. Truly an item where I can eat what I store and store what I eat.

2beans – at 18:54

A Word of Caution: I love my Excaliber BUT ….. you must read the book. Not all foods are equal when it comes down to what to dehydrate. I made a lot of mistakes because I didn’t take the time to read the directions. (Now there’s the story of my life). For instance, green leafy veggies aren’t the ideal choice, you’ll end up with a powder - which is dandy for enriching soups and stews but don’t be expecting steamed kale. Citrus fruits do better as leathers or powders. Anyway, you get the drift. The book divides all food types into great for dehydrating, o.k., down to not-so-hot for dehydrating. Just read before you jump in feet first so you won’t feel you’ve wasted a lot of time.

urdar-Norge – at 19:12

typical ready meal in plast is also dehydrated, like soups etc. it may not contain the same balansed ingreidients as campers hydrated meals, but mixed with other storable ingredients it will be ok. They do need some more place since the packagin is big compared to the amunt of food, but could be repacked..

lohrewok – at 19:21

We tried the Mountain House beef stronganoff dinner, got it at wallyworld for 6$. Liked it a lot but pretty expensive. I might keep a couple around just in case though.

I also put an oxygen absorber into my own dried items.

lbb – at 22:42

lohrewok, you can basically make the equivalent of Mountain House yourself, with a little dehydrator practice — and in so doing, you get to control the nutrition of the end product. I know a fellow backpacker whose dehydrator never gets put away — whatever gets made for dinner, if he has leftovers, they go into the dehydrator to make backpacking meals. He eats very well on the trail!

24 June 2006

bird-dog – at 00:13

I’ve been avoiding this for too long…

I should read back and check this out but I’m feeling blocked/lazy at the moment. I bought oxygen absorbers from Honeyville when I bought some eggs, vegetables and fruit about two to three months ago. The absorbers are still in their bag. My question is ‘Can you use the absorbers in plastic containers or do the containers need to be glass or metal? My bulk grains and beans from the health food store are in tightly fitted plastic containers as is the bulk flour that I can’t fit into my refridgerator. Won’t the absorbers effect the plastic? Also do you use the absorbers for bulk teas and dried fruits and veggies and pasta also in bulk but in plastic bags then placed in plastic containers? All of these items are organic ie. no preservatives so I’d imagine that they wouldn’t keep as long as reg. store bought foods.

Another question… After you place your rice in the freezer overnight to kill the bugs or whatever and take it out, the condensation in the bags could possibly cause the rice and other grains to mold. Do you leave the grain in the opened plastic bag for a few days until you think that the water has evaporated and then seal it in the plastic containers?

Also can you use the oxygen absorbers simply in plastic bags?

I haven’t a clue about all of this and I hope that my procrastinating hasn’t ruined my preps too much! ;-( THANKS!

RNevilleat 00:51

I was reading up on oxygen absorbers and they do not work with zip lock bags. The bags don’t have enough integrity to keep out the oxygen.

I came across this when I was researching how to use oxygen absorbers. You can store your unused absorbers in a canning jar but not a plastic bag.

Sorry I don’t have a link.

bird-dog – at 00:59

RNeville …Thanks, I thought as much about the plastic bags. I guess they’d do OK in a plastic container. I’ll search the wiki tomorrow & then do a google search if I am still unsure. The answers are most likely on fluwiki off the prep page. I’m sure that I saw something about it months ago. Honeyville or the Mormon site would probably have info too. I was just being lazy. ;-) Have a good night!

laura in pa – at 01:23

bumping for bill

RNevilleat 11:51

bird-dog,

Here’s the site I was thinking of: http://tinyurl.com/zc8wb

bird-dog – at 11:59

RNeville

Wow…great information! Thanks so much. Obviously I’ll have to have everything in place before I open the bag from Honeyville. That will take some time!

03 July 2006

OKbirdwatcherat 17:06

lohrewok - at 19:21

You said WallyWorld had Mountain House freeze dried food in pouches. Did they also have freeze dried foods in the #10 cans (Mountain House or any other brand)? Thanks!

OKbirdwatcherat 17:10

Took some Mountain House freeze-dried lasagna on a recent camping trip. It was great. Even my skeptical DH remarked (more than once) how good he thought it was. Anxious to try more.

CAMikeat 17:21

Folks, one thing to keep in mind is that the power grid may or may not be down during a pandemic or any other disaster.

Search the forums for “thermos cooking”, “Kelly Stoves” and “Solar ovens” for alternatives to when your heat backups fail.

Also, keep in mind that a diet of rice and beans is not complete so make sure that at the least you have a large supply of multi-vitamins and if possible cans/cups of fruits and vegetables. You need to keep a balanced diet if you are going to SIP for more then a few weeks.

I am experimenting with recipies that start with rice and beans but do not require much heat. I will pass on my experiences both good and bad (I have a black thumb when it comes to cooking so be warned).

Mike

OKbirdwatcherat 17:59

CAMike -

Good reminders. Personally, I’m trying to plan and prepare for every possibility - from best-case to worst-case scenario. Regular rice, Minute Rice. Dried beans, canned beans. Frozen meat, freeze-dried/dehydrated meat/and TVP. Same for milk, eggs, fruits and vegetables. We simply don’t know what situation we might be in.

I’ve read up on thermos cooking (who knew?) and I know what a Kelly Stove is and where to buy one. Haven’t learned too much, yet, about solar cooking but I sure know where to find the info when I need it ;)

I’d never even heard of such things until a few months ago; now I’m feeling more and more self-reliant. Thanks FluWiki!

…and good luck with those experiments, Mike!

lohrewok – at 18:06

OKbirdwatcher @ 17:06

I did not see any #10 cans there. It was in the camping supply area where I found the mountain house entree. Our store (not a superstore) has only about 1 side of an aisle devoted to camping items.

OKbirdwatcherat 18:20

Thanks so much lohrewok and you’ve already answered my next question! Our local WM is not a supercenter either but they have a fair camping section (which I frequent on a regular basis these days) and I’ve never seen ANY kind of food, period. But I’ll look more closely next time.

glennk – at 19:05

I’m buying the dried foods because they make sense. However, in the back of my mind as I order it I’m saying to myself, God forbid I ever in life have to actually use the stuff.

OKbirdwatcherat 19:42

glennk

Ditto. But I do plan to start incorporating them into our regular meals. Get that “rotation” in motion.

RNevilleat 23:16

One note about ordering Mountain House through the mail or internet. Occasionally the Mountain House website will state they are “Out of Stock” for #10 cans but other websites will still have it marked as “In Stock” and sell it to you. Then the other websites will send you an email stating there is a 3 to 6 week wait for the Mountain House product.

I had this happen to me, I ordered from one website and was told the 3~6 week wait for back ordered product. Then I got an email from Mountain House stating their #10 cans were back in stock, so I ordered a few cans from them. In just 3 days I got my order from Mountain House, 4 days after that I got my Mountain House product from the other website.

It seems Mountain House is producing the stuff as fast as they can and it sells out for awhile everywhere. Be careful if you are in a hurry some place says they have the product “In Stock” and Mountain House doesn’t.

On low tech cooking check out Nuwick candles. I’m pretty impressed with the Nuwicks they are sealed with multiple wicks and matches right in the can. I got 6 44 hour candles, a basic sterno style camp stove and a small Colman cook pot set in my emergency kit. All I need is water and my freeze dried foods and our family of four is set for 10-days minimum.(Slowly adding more freeze dried goods to the emergency kit.)

04 July 2006

bumping for bill – at 00:45
OKbirdwatcherat 13:06

RNeville -

It seems all the freeze-dried food suppliers are having a difficult time keeping up with demand. But I must say, every online retailer I have ordered from has been accurate, upfront and honest about stock availability and back order delivery times. I have been very impressed with all of them so far.

I’ve been looking at the Nuwick candles too - haven’t bought any yet. Have you tried them out (for cooking)?

Thordawggy – at 14:58

I just made my first order of dehydrated and freeze dried food from Emergency Essentials. In the recent past, MANY items had a yellow box next to them indicating that they were temporarily out of stock. However, last night all had a green box indicating they were in stock. I hope they didn’t just change it to get more back ordered orders! Anyway, I wanted some long term storage items that would not be used for possibly years and things that are ingredients that would be hard to get in an emergency to be used in baking and other things that can be used together. I got #10 cans of dried milk, eggs, stew mix (LOTS of different vegs and potatoes in it), Soup mix (lots of lentils and peas), chicken boullion and cheddar brocolli soup (with potatoes) to cook the soup and stew mixes in. Also a couple of P-38′s (50 cents each) in case my collection of hand can openers all die. They have good shipping too. It is 5, 9 or 15 dollars depending on how much you get. My next order will be some of those twist top bucket lids and some freeze dried beef and chicken if I can afford it ($30+ a can!). Oh, I got 1 #10 can of dehydrated pinto beans too. They do not sell oxy absorbers. That was kind of strange.

Kathy in FL – at 15:01

OKbirdwatcher – at 17:10

Everything tastes better when you are camping. <grin> Its all that fresh air and extra calorie burning activities. LOL!

Thordawggy – at 15:04

Oh, I forgot to mention that the food is the Provident Pantry brand out of Orem Utah. They recommend that I get my oxy absorbers from and LDS site.

Thordawggy – at 15:19

Did I forget to mention that I got quick oats and buttermilk pancake mix too? Just 1 #10 can of each. Yikes. That is 11 #10 cans. Sure feels good though. Don’t have to worry about rotating that stuff for years. :-) I will shut up now.

OKbirdwatcherat 15:20

Kathy in FL - You are so right:)

Thordawggy -

I’ve found Emergency Essentials “availability indicators” to be very accurate. Not 100%, but very close. I’ve ordered a lot from them and only 3 items were backordered and I received them within a few days after getting the main shipment. I’ve always been happy with their service.

Thordawggy – at 15:28

OKbirdwatcher - that is good to know! You don’t know how many times that I have put stuff in the shopping cart there and then never ordered them. Other places too. I finally clicked on the ‘place order’ button. Of course, a couple of large adult beverages helped my inhabitions, but this morning there were no regrets. When the stuff arrives, my husband will get a shocker though! Heh heh. I forgot that I was going to shut up now. :-) I am just excited! We have TONS of other preps, but this long term stuff makes me feel much better.

Kathy in FL – at 15:44

I have five #10 cans … 3 of powdered whole eggs, 1 of sour cream, and 1 of banana slices.

Most everything else I’m getting I can pick up at the store in one form or another. I kinda regret the sour cream now that I’ve found out how to make it with evaporated milk … but you live and learn and it certainly won’t go to waste. My youngest two love dried banana slices so they will be a treat.

For me it isn’t a problem of buying in bulk … its having decent containers to put the stuff in once I buy it. I have my mom’s friends all saving me large screw top type containers (commercial sizes) and I’m creating a few myself from the pretzel “barrels” at SAMs <grin> … but I can only buy as much as I have containers for at any given time. I nearly have enough to buy another 50 lbs. of rice.

OKbirdwatcherat 15:50

Thordawggy - ‘You don’t know how many times that I have put stuff in the shopping cart there and then never ordered them. Other places too.’

Oh yes I do! In fact I have another large order in my EE cart right now. LOL! I keep “editing” my order, comparing prices, etc. I usually place fairly large orders and I want to get it right. I don’t think you’ll have any regrets - I haven’t. My DH’s eyes bug a little when the orders arrive, but he’s basically OK with it. He does like to eat, after all ;) The freeze-dried/dehydrated items are just another level of my preps. Nothing else I know of that will store for 10–30 yrs! (That I would actually want to eat.)

Kathy in FL – at 15:57

OKbirdwatcher – at 15:50

A family of my size (7 people, four of whom eat adult sized portions) would go through those #10 cans quick as a wink. I’ve priced things out and for us it just doesn’t make economic sense if I plan on actually using them in the near future.

If I was only prepping for say something that I didn’t expect for another 3 to 10 years, then the freeze dried/dehydrated stuff would make better sense. I wish it WAS a good option for us as it would take some heat of my prepping to just be able to order stuff at will (or at least at paycheck. - grin).

I just need to find better ways to store what I’m already buying. Plus with water being a main concern for us, the canned goods are a better option again.

I think every body needs to sit down and work out … like OK is doing … to see what works best within their families needs and budget.

EnoughAlreadyat 16:16

I dehydrate stuff from my freezer… vegetables and fruits. For example, green peppers, squash, carrots or berries. The foods in the freezer section are often cheaper than fresh produce. (Unless it’s homegrown.) (Or on special.) Dehydrating reduces my need for freezer space, which has a lot of implications. Dehydrating is an excellent method of preserving foods for long periods with reduction in “shelf space” needs. Foods in the freezer section are more nutritious, generally speaking, than canned goods. I have even dehydrated cottage cheese… successfully. Honestly, dehydrating is not that laborous. It is relatively simple. Also, it is a good teaching tool for kids… all kinds of “learning” opportunities.

OKbirdwatcherat 16:18

Kathy in FL -

We’re a small family, just DH and myself right now, but add DD (and maybe her spouse or SO, if there happens to be one) if and when we SIP. So maybe 4 people, tops, in the immediate.

So just opening a #10 can, I will have to vacuum seal or otherwise re-package the leftovers. And I’ve never even bought a 50 lb. bag of rice, though I know that’s the best value. It just kinda boggles my mind.

I bought the sour cream powder, butter powder, tomato powder, etc. in the #2.5 cans, as a “try me” size, because I wasn’t sure about them either. I’ve never used any of this kind of stuff. So I’m going to try them out and if I like using them, I’ll order them in the #10 cans.

Kathy in FL – at 16:21

EnoughAlready – at 16:16

I was going to give that a try this coming week. I want to get some of my canning out of the way first. I have over 20 pounds of ground beef waiting to be canned, not to mention some boneless beef ribs, stew meat, and some cocktail weenies. I can only stand to make so much mess in the kitchen at one time. <grin>

I think I’m going to check SAMs to see if they carry really large bags of frozen veggies. Of course it might be better to do a mixture from smaller bags … I’ll just have to get out my dehydrator and give it a try one way or another to see. <grin>

OKbirdwatcherat 16:39

Kathy in FL -

Yea, I’ve tried to cover all the bases. Has given me a headache on more than one occasion. If water and power are readily available, I’ll cook pretty much like I do now and use all those dried beans and rice. If not, have lots of canned foods, but need more. If we lost freezer items, meats especially, or run out of things (gulp:( ), I think that’s where the freeze-dried/dehydrated foods will come in handy. I’ve bought a lot of the entree items (not cheap), meats (not cheap) and even TVP. Upside - no refrigeration or freezing required!

I hope I never know whether this was all a good plan or not.

EnoughAlreadyat 16:43

I do both at the same time… sometimes. The dehydrater is so quick and easy… and utilizing the frozen foods adds to the less mess. I find I have to put the frozen stuff in a collander & shake it to get water out. (If frozen, I run water over it.) I also have had to put stuff on a towel, or paper towel to “dry” it a bit before putting into the dehydrater. I knocked a jar of 13 pounds of chopped bell peppers off the counter, and it broke all to pieces. :( Being I have purchased a lot of glass containers at thrift stores, I am more careful! If I knew what I know now, after the “breaking”, I’d use more plastic containers, or baggies.

I have put up over 4 cases of quart sized jars of meat! Yesterday, I had 3 jars of HB not seal. I am not sure why. I think I didn’t screw the lids on tight enough… there was no sign of anything on the rims or seals. I even partially cooked the HB and drained it… so I don’t think it was fat content. I just took the stuff out of the jars and put it into sealameal bags and put it into the freezer. I appreciate your help on my canning questions! It is such a relief to have that meat out of the freezer and in jars! Right now I am concentrating on meat in the freezer. My fig trees are loaded… so I will be doing preserves when they ripen! AND my banana trees are loaded… will dehydrate them… only way they are edible.

With families as large as mine, and yours, dehydrating is just such a helpful method! I plan on using most of the veggies for soups, stews, add-ins to boost nutritional status. I have even dehydrated squash, kale, cabbage, slaw (snicker), mushrooms… everything I can get my hands on. When something is on sale in the produce section, I grab it up and stick it in the dehydrater. Unlike other methods of preserving…. you don’t have to wait until you “get enough” to make a batch.

As far as size… I get whatever is most economical. It shrinks so much it doesn’t matter! I have 2 dehydraters with 8 shelves… and more shelves on order. Unlike canning, you don’t have to “sit” with it! I also had to make some “screens” to keep stuff from falling through, or all over the counters when it’s done & I’m trying to put it into containers. I have ordered screens from the company that makes my dehydrater, but I can’t wait until they get here to do this stuff… so much is available now!

CAMikeat 17:16

Folks, dehydrating seems like a smart way to go. I have never done it so can (pun intended) you give me some tips.? I am particularly wondering about storage (best method and how long does it last?). Also, can some one point me to a link on dehydrating meat? I have done some searches but have not found what I am looking for.

Mike

Kathy in FL – at 17:24

CAMike – at 17:16

As far as meat goes, try directions for making jerky. It really isn’t hard at all. Can even be made from ground beef … I picked up a kit to do this at Walmart and have used it several times.

To dehydrate your ground beef … fry it up and drain it very, very well. You might even add seasoning like chili or taco seasoning if you want to. Then spread evenly on your dehydrator’s trays until fully dried following the same temps that you would for jerky.

Veggies and fruits … if I remember correctly … don’t have to be dried at quite a high of temperature as meat. Check your particular machine’s directions.

Kathy in FL – at 17:26

EnoughAlready – at 16:43

How did the slaw come out? <grin> I have several soup recipes that call for cabbage but I couldn’t figure out a way to do it. Using canned saurkraut just ain’t the same. LOL!

Kathy in FL – at 17:29

Found this and it might be helpful as a judge of how much fresh makes how much dried.

Yields of Fruits & Vegetables

From 25 lbs. of fresh produce you can expect to get about 4to 8 lbs. of dried fruit, or 3 to 6 lbs. of vegetables. Results vary depending on the portion of inedible parts discarded before drying.

CAMikeat 17:34

Thanks, Kathy, I have a busy weekend coming up.

Mike

MAinVAat 17:42

For some reason cannot get myself to buy a dehydrator, although I have looked into them. I have made about 10# of hamburger by precooking, draining well and then spreading it on cookie sheets in my oven. Did a trial 2# batch a month ago, let it sit out on the counter and then made two meals out of it. Wonderful taste and without all the “greasiness” of regular cooked hamburger. Will make more each week now. May try some vegetables as well.

Kathy in FL – at 17:46

MAinVA – at 17:42

Yeah, you don’t absolutely have to have a dehydrator to dry stuff with … but sure beats the heck out of heating of the kitchen the way the oven seems to. Saves gas if you have a gas stove as well … since it runs on electric.

I have an electric oven and I’ve heard people say both that they are better than a gas oven and worse for drying foods. LOL! Since I got the dehydrator 18 years ago as a wedding gift … I figure what the heck. <grin> I use it more than the fondue set that I received. LOL!

EnoughAlreadyat 17:55

Mike… here is what it says in Crfisis Perpardness Handbook, by Jack Spigarelli:

Lean beef and similar meats can be cut into thin strips an dried into jerky. Pork shouldn’t be used because low heat won’t kill trichinosis bacteria. Meat for jerky should be parboiled for 15–30seconds prior to drying. (p203)

Books:

How to Dry Foods, DeLong & Gates

The ABC’s of HOme Food Dehydration, Densley

Dry It, You’ll Like It, MacManiman

EnoughAlreadyat 18:01

Mike… I can’t make links work on this website, but… University of Idaho Extension agency has good info on making jerky and how to do it safely. I just did dehydrate meat search and it came up on the first page. Says: Beef Jerky- The USDA Meat and Poultry Hotline’s current recommendation for making jerky safely is to heat meat to 160o F before the dehydrating process. …

Melanie – at 18:05

Enough,

Read the instructions for making links at the bottom of the page. PmWiki doesn’t use html, it has its own markup language.

EnoughAlreadyat 18:05

Kathy in FL – at 17:26

LOL! Slaw came out like little biddy string confetti. A large bag shrunk down to about 1 cup. It is easily breakable, so when used won’t have to have stringy stuff in soup. Supposedly, can rehydrate it to make coleslaw. We love that V-8 juice soup with cabbage and navy beans/red beans… so… I’ve got cabbage for that now.

CAMikeat 18:09

Thanks again all. I guess I just need to ecperiment. The recipes and links will be of use. I will pass on my sucesses and failures.

Mike

EnoughAlreadyat 18:10

Melanie… I have tried! I don’t know what the deal is, it won’t work for me. We are talking the link description? right? I put the address link where link goes, underscore url, etc. Sometimes stuff I don’t copy out of the address window comes up. One time a Billy Graham website came up… and I did not even have that on my computer. I can’t make it work.

EnoughAlreadyat 18:14

well… what did I just create? See. All I did was try to describe what was down there … the brackets stuff.

05 July 2006

RNevilleat 19:40

Thordawggy – at 14:58

I also have P-38′s, I put one in a small ziplock bag to prevent ambient moisture from rusting it and put one under the lid of every third #10 can I get.

OKbirdwatcher – at 13:06

I haven’t tried the candle for cooking yet but I took a couple pictures for you and compared it to a brand X survival candle. http://www.maj.com/cgi-bin/gallery.cgi?f=117700

12 July 2006

RNevilleat 19:36

bump

13 July 2006

CAMike - Bump – at 01:54

bump

Kathy in FL – at 12:31

I’ve gone back to drying my own … really easy. I buy commerical size bags of frozen veggies so I don’t have to process them in advance and then put them on the dehydrator trays and away we go. I can dry the equivalent of a #10 can for about $5 for most veggies.

I have mine temporarily stored in gallon freezer bags (ziploc brand) until I can borrow my mom’s sealer and then I’ll store them in airtight jars.

NEMO – at 14:41

Thanks, Kathy! I’ll really need to be putting my dehydrator to use more often. This sounds easy-peasy and have a worth eating project after all is said and done. I have been wanting to try jerky but don’t want a catastrophe on my hands. Any words of wisdom there from either you or Kim?

Thanks!

18 July 2006

anon_in_ga – at 17:43

This may seem like simple questions, but I really new to this dried foods topic. I read the entire thread, but I still have questions.

1. What is the difference in the process of creating freeze dried vs. just dehydrated?

2. How hard is it to create your own “just add water and heat ready to eat meals” like the mountain house meals using just a dehydrater?

3. How do you know how much water to add to rehydrate? Is it different for every food or is it more like just add water and the meat/vegs/fruits will only soak up what it needs?

Thanks, I really appreciate the knowledge that I have gained from this board.

Kim – at 18:13

anon-in-ga, freeze-drying is nearly impossible at home, the equipment is extremely expensive. It’s a complicated process, whereas dehydrating can be done by most anyone. Most of the Mountain House meals are freeze-dried, not dehydrated. One CAN, however, experiment with dehydrating already-cooked dishes at home. When re-hydrating dehydrated foods, I generally just put them in a container and add enough water to cover, they seem to soak up only what they need.

anon_in_ga – at 20:10

Thanks Kim, I will have to look into a dehydrator and see if this is something worth investing in.

anon_in_ga – at 20:10

Thanks Kim, I will have to look into a dehydrator and see if this is something worth investing in.

Kim – at 21:25

anon-in-ga, you might look at the Excalibur dehydrator website. Excalibur is the brand I have, and I really love it. I had some of the cheap round stacking dehydrators before and was not happy with them, it seemed that everything either burned or refused to dry without all kinds of major watching and shuffling of trays. The Excalibur site also has some recipes that you might find interesting. I think I’ve found a cheap source of watermelon, I’m going to try dehydrating that, it sounds wonderful! http://www.excaliburdehydrator.com/gen1.htm

08 August 2006

TX-Gunner – at 09:14

“I had some of the cheap round stacking dehydrators before and was not happy with them, it seemed that everything either burned or refused to dry without all kinds of major watching and shuffling of trays.” - Kim

Ronco from late night infomercial anyone?

Kim – at 09:30

TX-Gunner, yes, I had a Ronco, and also some other round stacking dehydrator (don’t remember the brand). Talk about a major pain in the a**!!! I can easily see why anyone who has one of those pieces of junk would soon decide that dehydrating is just too much trouble for them and give up.

anonymous – at 10:11

Recieved a loan of the Ronco last night ….I will report my luck with the 10lbs of green onions I was given .

Strider – at 21:49

Two years ago I made a fish feed dryer for research blends of fish feed at the Uinv that I work at (staff inventor and problem solver). I used a metal closet (surplus), coated interior with food grade epoxy, made tray guides and tray frames from aluminum angle, screens with food grade nylon screen. Put two 6″ 115 v muffin fans in the top, screened variable sized intake vents in the bottom, and heated it with a WalMart quality small electric heater rewired to a 100 to 150° F thermostat with remote bulb sensor. It worked great for drying the fish feed, but the experiment ended so the unit got moved to a out-of-the-way corner. Since it will probably never be used again (aquacultue section is closed down now), maybe the unit will follow me home. It gives 66 sq ft of drying surface, and I can convert it to solar operation fairly easily. When the local apples start coming in I may dry up several bushels for myself, and several more for “trade”.

DennisCat 22:28

I have some dried foods- rice, eggs (Honeyville), instant potatoes, milk, smoothies, …. But I have gone with can beans. The reason is at my altitude it takes forever to cook dried beans even when presoaked for a day. It would cost me too much in fuel. So the bottom line for me (again just because of altitude) is that it is easier to have canned beans than it is to keep the extra fuel. The same with a few other items. I want to have some canned-no cook items as well as the dried cooked items.

09 August 2006

Ima-Prepper – at 00:14

I about feel out of my chair when yesterday my husband told me to go ahead and get the Dyhydrator I have been eyeing for some time. I bought mine at Cabela’s online http://tinyurl.com/lttrj. I got the 80 Liter Model. Just need to figure out where im going to keep this thing. I like the fact that it has temperature controls since I like to make Buffalo Jerky often and getting the right temps is important for meat shelf life.

I wont get it until next week but very anxious.

Ima-Prepper – at 00:16

I also ordered more oxygen absorbers and Silca Gel for vacuum sealing the jerky.

Irene – at 00:21

Last month I bought a food dehydrator and dehydrated broccoli and zuccini. Both vegetables were dry and brittle when I placed them in glass jars with plastic screw top lids. Now I notice that both the broccoli and the zuccini are pliable i.e. no longer brittle. Is that normal?

Ima-Prepper – at 00:46

Sounds like there was still some moiture left. The best thing to to is seal them in a vacuum type container and possibly add an oxygen absorber and or a packet of silica gel.

Im thinking that some of the #10 canned veggies you see online are freeze dried instead dehydrated.

Ima-Prepper – at 00:49

Irene I see the Emergency essentials sells their broccoli #10 as freeze dried. Im presuming that is really the only way to preserve this particular item. I may be wrong.

Kim – at 06:54

Broccoli can be dehydrated OR freeze-dried. I dehydrate my own at home. Irene, you must not have a good seal on your storage jars, I suspect that the plastic lids are not making a good seal on the glass jars. I always keep my dehydrated stuff in glass canning jars with canning lids (I live in a humid climate). The canning lids have a rubber seal which should prevent any air infiltration. There should be no loss on your broccoli and zucchini, though. Dump them out and check carefully for any signs of mold. If there is none, just stick it back in the dehydrator for a short time until it’s dry enough, then re-package in canning jars. If it’s moldy you’ll have to throw it out of course.

Irene – at 12:27

Thanks! :-)

10 August 2006

CAMike - bump – at 01:33

bump

24 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 21:54

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Page last modified on October 24, 2006, at 09:54 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / The Importance of Keeping Preps Secret

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: The Importance of Keeping Preps Secret

15 August 2006

On the fence but leaning – at 17:34

Wasn’t there another post that mentioned that the Pandemic plan, or some other emergency executive powers, empowered the government to seize food, weapons, property, and personnel in times of emergency. That could be a good reason to keep preps under wraps. Has anyone ever told someone that they are are prepping, the importance of prepping, given suggestions to prep, etc. and now wish they had been a little more ‘discreet’?

On the fence but leaning – at 17:38

I mentioned prepping to my neighbor and now the conversations lean towards what “WE” will do etc. I personally think that neighborhoods and communities will need to work through anything together but it seems like we have entered into an unspoken partnership that may be more one sided than I like. Also, I don’t know who else he or his wife may have told about our conversations. I don’t mind helping but I can’t have anyone other than my family depend on me. Honestly, I don’t have enough set aside for us yet, just a small closet with enough extra groceries to last a few weeks at most.

Gary Near Death Valley – at 17:39

During Y2K in 1999,,,I taught a class on preparation in my community, was on a local board to get the community get prepared and freely gave information about preparations etc, that I had, so that others would pay attention etc,,,but this time around, have kept every close to my chest, while increasing the preparations. This time I do believe it is much more likely to happen that preps will be needed to get from this side and thru a pandemic to the other side of it. I do have spare to share, for neighbors, family etc, if needed, but they do not even know it.

On the fence but leaning – at 17:42

Gary, I am envious. I wish I was at that state of prepping to feel like I could share. I am a very giving person…when I am not being selfish. :-)

Np1 – at 17:47

No. I have been a kook for years, and remain so. However I am rightly percieved as a well prepared, well armed kook. Those who prepare to survive deserve to survive. I will continue to spread the word and what people do with it is up to them. Kelly

Gary Near Death Valley – at 17:56

If one looks at preparations as a ever widening circle, with the bulls eye, or center, being YOURSELF, and slowly expanding the circle outward, then including live in family, then a widening circle, encompassing others (friends first then neighbors), then widening circle yet, for others. As the circle widens, the preps become more expensive, less space to “hide the preps”, more thoughts on what kind, and thinking of possibilities, you can vizulize the system. Begin small with yourself, then expand outward, but do not feel guilty if the outer circle is not completed in clude neighbors and others. The real goal is take care of your own needs and your family needs first and foremost, while keeping the preps secret and always thinking about circumstances if TSHTF,, such as: In case of electricity going out, would you advertize that you are prepped in an area surrounded by others, if you had an electric generator that made noise day and night, giving you lights, and other day to day liveables while other had none. On the other hand, if you had a kerosene latern, that would be normal, and would not draw much attention by others, if the blinds were closed etc.

The thing being that if one is prepped, one must be careful to flaunt the preps in the face of others when those others may not be as prepped. Not talking about something that may last a couple of weeks like a windstorm, etc, but a long term situation. I used to have a complete solar system, that would creat lights all over my property, run my well etc, but now downsizing in that I do not want to advertize how fully prepped I am. I have a solar cooker and will use that before a barbeque, propane burner, or other food odor producing cooking way. I hope this helps some, but if you have question ask away.

Silenced Within – at 18:06

When I first started prepping I told a few people that I knew would take it seriously. And it pleases me to say that they too are also prepping. The only advice I can give is be very careful about who you tell… and make sure they are not you next door neighbor. Not only for obvious reasons that they may become a nuesuance during a disaster…as they may think your just plain nuts if they don’t understand fully why your prepping. I told only one neighbor (that I believed would prep). He seemed to understand ..but his wife thinks we are crazies and they don’t talk to us anymore. Hmmm kinda feel like Noah…

Malachi – at 18:18

When I first became aware of bf and the need to prep(duh I learned of it like 3–4 years ago, just learned of prepping like in Nov 05)I went out to the emergency management meetings talking my little heart out about the need to prepare.I now feel I revieled enough in that I was even thinking about preparing,I worry that the emergency management people and health dept people will think of me and come get my preps.I guess they will be surprised by how little we have.Kids home for summer has really took a bite out of our preps.I don’t talk about it too much anymore.

lady biker – at 18:33

I have worried about this a lot. I have decided to keep my mouth shut, help my family all I can, I live by myself and have no children and although am on disability I have prepped quite a bit. I know my neighbors well enough to know if anything bad happened they would come down here and take everything I have and expect more. they treat me like a quick trip store now if they need anything. I have been practicing saying the word no and have come to the conclusion that I will tell them no from now on. I hate doing this but there is a difference in helping someone and being taken advantage off, I have asked them for help a time or two with things and they never can do anything so I am no longer mr nice guy up to a certain point. I would never let someone starve to death but I won’t let them make me do without either. so the number one rule to me is keep my mouth shut and prep away.

LMWatBullRunat 20:11

Each person has to live with their own actions.

I have decided that I will spend a good deal of effort to warn those I care for that I think bad times are coming and that they should prepare for them. I am willing to take the risk to warn those I am close to.

I have also rather bluntly disabused those I have spoken to that seem to assume they now have gotten an invite to show up if TSHTF. I have told them bluntly not to come without a specific invitation. I have also told them that if they DO come without an invite they’ll be leaving, without any support from me.

My friends and family also know that I never bluff. Most of them are prepping to the extent they can afford to. Those that aren’t will have to live with the consequences. Or not.

Kim – at 22:24

on the fence, I used to offer free emergency preparedness classes in my store, I could barely get anyone to sign up (save for a short time period after 9/11). There is just no interest in something so mundane as saving your own and your families life… good grief, there is American Idol, soap operas and football games to watch. And I have, in the past, made the mistake of telling certain people the extent of my preps. No more, and I hope that the people I DID tell have forgotten about it by now. I think that Katrina opened my eyes as to what could happen in a disaster. I intend to lay low, help whoever I can without revealing my identity or the source of the help, and hope that those I’ve told about my preps have short memories.

16 August 2006

Mosaic – at 00:01

There are a lot of people in my life that I really care about, both family and friends. I have told them about the possibility of a pandemic, and that it would be good if they had a number of weeks of food/water on hand. Most have ignored the suggestion, but a few have purchased some extras. I have told no one the extent of our preps. I figure its up to them to investigate and make up their own minds.

That said, I also feel somewhat uncomfortable with all the people I have talked to about this. Many have children and I fear if it gets bad, they would do anything to get food for them. Yikes.

Warning people is a double-edged sword. I’m pleased some have prepared even somewhat and I feel good about that, yet also scared that those that have not will think of us when their stomachs begin to growl seriously. On one level, I regret warning them, but also know I would do it again.

EnoughAlreadyat 18:45

If this, or anything, gets to any degree of major food shortage… or any other kind of major “lack”… well… it will not be pretty. I can tell you from personal experience it is ugly to be prepared when others are not… a hurricane story. Generally speaking, people start demanding to be taken care of and how unfair “it all is.” Talk turns to ugly action. Never mind warnings or common sense precautionary preparations--- somebody else is suppose to take care of us. Keeping preps a secret will be a cat out of the bag as soon as somebody notices “others” who aren’t wild-eyed, panic stricken, emaciated, screaming for help and demanding (even if it is “my” stuff.) But, maybe I am wrong and we still live in a society that will pull together like they did across the globe during the Great Depression. A time when people didn’t expect others to take care of them and were very thrifty. On the other hand, that was also a “time” of horrific brutality on mankind… and a major war insued.

Medical Maven – at 20:06

EnoughAlready at 18:45-Even with the best of us atavistic currents of thought get rolling when we are sleep-deprived, stressed, hungry, cold, or thirsty. You want to lose weight through the First Wave and lie low with the lights down. If you want to contribute, do it anonymously with essential workers connected with keeping the grid going. That is the best target for any altruistic efforts. You can team up with the canny and the prepped, (that you didn’t know about), after the first big shake-out.

Just read on the Yahoo Science newsfeed that mankind will need to produce FIFTY per cent more foodstuffs in TWENTY years to keep everybody fed, (assuming a linear progression, which is doubtful).

urdar-Norge – at 20:18

Fifty per cent foodstuff with 50 per cent less oilstuff.. Well how are we gonna do that?..Hmm.. Time to find that old chemestry set and start with that good old cold fusion experiments again. ;)

anonymous – at 20:26

Got my kids Ped. to fork over scripts for my kids for Tamiflu . Had to first talk with her about and then followed up with a letter. She took a couple of weeks to decide whether or not to give me the prescrips and wrote me a letter explaining why she did but wasn’t thrilled about it. For a Dr. I have to say her reasoning was muddled and confused. I think she wrote them only because I had now put my request on record with my letter and she was basically covering her ass just in case. I expect to run into the same logic or lack of it from my own General P. As far as other preps. I’m not talking to anyone about this anymore. I did for a month got the strange looks and stares and just decided to go ahead and start doing it quietly. Nobody prepares for anything anymore. Most people in this country are barely making ends met ,including me but this is a situation that has to be dealt with and talking about it just is a replacement for real actions.

Melanie – at 20:27

urdar-Norge,

And how did that work out for you?

urdar-Norge – at 21:05

well I lack one finger after my “simple living “ holliday so it will take some time I guess..

no name – at 21:10

Has anyone asked their supervisor at work if the company has a plan for AI?

Jane – at 21:15

urdar-Norge, isn’t your finger healing? I hope you mean that you can’t use it right now because it’s bandaged.

urdar-Norge – at 21:22

I remowed the stiches today. its so ugly I will use it to scare of anyone comming for my preps :D nahh its fine, I have learned to use the next finger instead, and luckily it was not my right hand. still typing wrong but… :)

The Captain – at 23:22

On the fence…

In response to your question there is Presidential Executive Order (EO 12919). Google it if you like and read the whole thing… but here is the jist of it below. Personally it gave me “goose bumps”.

Taken from EO 12919: © Be prepared, in the event of a potential threat to the security of the United States, to take actions necessary to ensure the availability of adequate industrial resources and production capability, including services and critical technology for national defense requirements;

 (1) The Secretary of Agriculture with respect to food resources, food resource facilities, and the domestic distribution of farm equipment and commercial fertilizer;

(2) The Secretary of Energy with respect to all forms of energy; (3) The Secretary of Health and Human Services with respect to health resources; (4) The Secretary of Transportation with respect to all forms of civil transportation;

 (5) The Secretary of Defense with respect to water resources; and

(6) The Secretary of Commerce for all other materials, services, and facilities, including construction materials.

Okieman – at 23:35

no name – at 21:10

“Has anyone asked their supervisor at work if the company has a plan for AI?”

I wrote the pandemic plan for the small non-profit I work for, and the board approved it. Just waiting for the signs to initiate implementation. Hopefully those signs will never appear, but Indonesia has good me staring at the computer screen a lot.

Okieman – at 23:38

The Captain – at 23:22

“(5) The Secretary of Defense with respect to water resources”

That caught my attention. Need to go to sleep, but will have to take a closer look at that first.

Melanie – at 23:45

Okieman,

A lot of us are staring at the computer screen.

Okieman – at 23:48

From the Presidential Executive Order (EO 12919).

(m) “Water resources” means all usable water, from all

         sources, within the jurisdiction of the United States, which  
         can be managed, controlled, and allocated to meet emergency  
         requirements. 

Is this the operative Presidential Executive Order in the event of an Influenza Pandemic?

17 August 2006

Monotreme – at 00:04

Okieman,

I think there remains some confusion as to line of authority during a pandemic, at least in my mind. I think DHS is in charge, but that HHS and CDC will be involved in the medical response, but I’m not sure.

See this Testimony by he Honorable Jeffrey W. Runge, M.D., Acting Under Secretary for Science & Technology and Chief Medical Officer, U.S Department of Homeland Security before the Committee on Government Reform U.S. House of Representative, May 11, 2006.

DHS is working closely with its Federal partners, especially the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), the Veterans Administration (VA), the Department of Defense (DOD), and the Homeland Security Council to prepare and to ensure that we are coordinated in our response.

As we coordinate, we recognize that each Department has responsibilities that are unique as well as some responsibilities that overlap. The DHS responsibilities are clear, pursuant to the Homeland Security Act of 2002 and Homeland Security Presidential Directive-5 (HSPD-5). As the domestic incident manager, the Secretary of DHS will coordinate the overall Federal response to a pandemic in order to ensure the continuity of our government, maintain civil order, preserve the functioning of society and mitigate the consequences of a pandemic. The Secretary of DHS serves as the principal Federal official for overall domestic incident management. In this role, during a pandemic outbreak, the Secretary of Homeland Security is responsible for the coordination of Federal operations and/or resources, establishment of reporting requirements, and conduct of ongoing communications with Federal, State, local, tribal, private sector, and nongovernmental organizations.

[snip]

The Secretary would also set up a national planning element composed of senior officials of relevant Federal agencies to coordinate strategic-level national planning. The Secretary would also likely establish as many as five Regional Joint Field Offices that would be staffed and resourced with a Deputy PFO in charge of each Regional JFO to work directly with state & local entities. This framework provides a coordinated response for all level of government, non-government and volunteer organizations (NGOs), and the private sector. This system also affords full coordination between the regional joint field offices and military joint task forces that may be established. Last month, Secretary Chertoff asked his fellow Cabinet members to identify senior officials to coordinate planning and operations among the Federal departments before a pandemic would strike. The list has been compiled, and we look forward to working with these individuals as we plan and train together with our pre-designated PFO and Deputy PFOs.

Bump – at 00:18
PrepHider for this Comment – at 00:47

I don’t think the military will be going house to house to take homeowner preps, at least not at first. They will be taking charge of large food storage warehouses to distribute it fairly, and especially to the troops, medical personnel, and other essential workers. But you can bet your ya-ya that if worst comes to worst, they will invade your home and take what they want. Just as not all of Americans are law abiding citizens, not all military personnel are either (think about the 14 year old girl raped and murdered in Iraq). It’s not the first month or 2 that I’m worried about, it’s the month or 2 after that. Also, some of my no good for nuthin in-laws found out I was prepping and have made rude comments (not to me but they said they know where they will get their stuff even if they have to use force, not in those words but similar) to the point where it frightens me. I will be watching out for them and in the meantime, no one else will know about the preps.

mountainlady – at 02:38

Preppers could talk about how they used to prep, but had a change of heart and decided it wasn’t worth it, and go on about how stupid it was for them to do that. It could throw people off of thinking they still have their preps. You never know, it could stop a lot of problems for you.

It’s called ACTing. (As in the Jon Lovitz bits on Saturday Night Live):-D

pine ridge – at 07:54

I think it’s also good for those of us with children to stress that they can’t tell anyone “We have tons of food in the basement”. I told dh that I was going to start getting groceries at midnight so the kids don’t know I bought snacks. Maybe I should do that so they don’t see me stashing the extra?

I have only told one person IRL that I’m prepping, and I only told him because he is the only one welcome here.

As for the EO, I don’t think too many of us will be bothered by it. What is the point of them taking my meager resources, when in the grand scheme it will less than a drop in the bucket. If I had a large farm, or grain stores (talking silos here) or some other large natural resource, then I would be worried. That’s not to say they wouldn’t bother me, but it would not be a good strategy. Would it be worth it to you to “allocate” a couple of buckets of beans, and put your men’s lives in danger? (We know how many of us here talk about home defense :) )

anon for this post – at 08:20

My father has told me just a few stories from his time in WWII. He was with Patton’s 3rd Army and was in the forefront of the liberation of France. He said that as they moved from town to town they essentially took whatever they wanted. He said that he got so good at running down chickens with his jeep that he could make them fly up and stick in the grill so he didn’t even have to stop to pick them up. In one town they discovered a huge hidden wine barrel and one soldier shot a hole in it and they took turns standing under the stream of wine with their mouths open. When everbody had their fill they just walked away.

While this was a completely different situation from what may happen during a pandemic, it may be very likely that a military force is stationed in your community. If they are there for a prolonged period and their supplies are meager or insufficent, you can bet they will begin appropriating what they can find. I’m not criticizing the military, I’m just presenting a possible scenario. I’m sure my dad’s unit had orders to treat the locals with respect and courtesy.

Okieman – at 08:20

Monotreme – at 00:04

Thanks for the info.

For everyone else, just so you know the reason for my earlier comment concerning water resources, I work in the water industry and the Executive Order mentioned has the potential to impact this area. No, I do not believe the military or the Federal Government has any intention to seize personal preps. Now the no-good-fer-nothin-in-laws mentioned up above, that may be a different story.

AVanartsat 08:25

EO 12919 was signed in the early years of the Clinton Administration. I don’t believe that a flu pandemic was even on Bill Clinton’s radar when he signed it.

The Captain – at 10:25

A Vanarts…

I agree, but EO 12919 compiled many previous EO’s under it. As we know, EO’s have the same effect as law, if and when they are activated. It could apply to “any” emergency situation that we fall under. Sorta like Katrina, whereby movement of people, resources, etc. was controlled and the badly needed ice ended up in New Jersey or New Zealand or somewhere (-: What if you don’t want to give them access to your pond, well, barn, silo, food stockpile, etc. I would be outgunned, I do believe. Lay low, keep quiet, I think that will be the best policy now and in the event. And for those no-good-fer-nothin-in-laws, now that’s a whole other issue. We could shackle them and make ‘em work for their food…

Oremus – at 11:48

The Captain – at 10:25

Thanks, now I have to add shackles to my prep list.

19 August 2006

EnoughAlreadyat 02:03

Medical Maven – at 20:06

Ya’ know… I’ve been given some thought to the “weight” issue. Sorta goes back to the times of plenty/skinny people are the “healthiest” and times of lack/fat people will survive! ;)- Seriously, when ya’ talk about survival… let’s say cavemen… it was those low metabolisms that were the survivors! Maybe it will be the fat people (oh… it COULD be considered a “prep”) who survive the famine (however the sceenario plays out.) All in all--- maybe “this” isn’t the time to shed those “unwanted” pounds. Save it for “then”… just a crazy thought.

Jumping Jack Flash – at 22:15

I wish like h*ll I would have kept my mouth shut. My strategy now will be to relocate preps to different mini storage units with 24hr access. I’ll keep a weeks worth of food at the house and the other 11 months worth hidden in storage. Most of the people who are going to perish will perish in the 1st 6 weeks of the panflu; not from flu but from dying of thirst, starvation, or violence.

SaddleTrampat 22:32

I thought about mini-storage units, too, but as far as I know they arent environmentally controlled. If you put your food preps in them they may freeze or be broiled in the heat. Non-food items, like toilet paper, etc., would be fine.

gharris – at 22:49

how will you get to the mini storage if there is no gas??!!

who will notice what you are doing there and mug you in the process??

would you really risk infection leaving your safe house to get your preps from a distant spot?

I dont think mini storage is a great idea! :-((

Eccles – at 22:58

Jumpin Jack -

I recommend you think your plan through a little bit more. Once things become chaotic, there is no guarantee that the storage unit you have rented will still provide any access at all, or that they won’t have been ransacked by looters looking for opportunistic profits or consumables.

Think about it. If there is widespread disease, thirst, starvation and violence, then in all likelihood you “mental movie” of how you think things will go will not work out as planned.

For instance, the storage unit that I have acquired also has 24 hour access. It uses electricity to achieve this. I have stored no preps there, but rather expendable personal property that needed to be moved out to make space for the preps.

At one point, I acquired some bulky equipment that would only really be needed if the grid went down and stayed there. My DW wanted it moved to the storage unit. I argued strenuously that that would not be a good idea. it is now here, other stuff having moved out to make room for it.

Average Concerned Mom – at 23:53

I don’t know, if you have told a lot of friends and neighbors about your preps maybe the storage unit is a great idea — for now.

You can invite everyone over for an open house or some kind of party, and be sure to let everyone on a whole house tour. They can see your (pitiful) supplies, and you can tell them, I ran out of money so I ate all those preps I was telling you about; I had a change of heart, whatever — but feel I have enough set by for a TWO WHOLE WEEKS if avian flu pandemic hits! Everyone should do the same.

Make sure the food they can see looks really unappetizing.

Then later you can go back and get your food!

(-:

21 August 2006

LMWatBullRunat 11:25

Prephider-

Some unsolicited advice in dealing with nogoodnicks:

Never bluff, never hesitate and don’t miss. Most bad people have no stomach for a real fight. To quote Gene Hackman in Unforgiven “I suppose you know, Bob, that if I ever see you again, I’m just going to start shooting and figure it’s self-defence.”

All the folks that know about my prepping also know I shoot Expert and I practice regularly. So does my DW, and so do my friends, who ARE invited to come stay during any troubles.

One of my coworkers once said he was just going to come to my place if TSHTF. I told him not to come without a specific invitation which he DID NOT have. He said “LMW, you wouldn’t shoot me for wanting to feed my starving family, would you?” To which I replied “Only if you continued to try to force your way in after you were warned!”

There was a long pause, and then he said “you’re serious, aren’t you?” I said I was. Cut to the chase- he’s prepping now.

On another note, if folks have the space, surplus 20′ x 8′ shipping containers cost around $2500 delivered in the greater DC area, and are a VERY sturdy and secure storage location. They are not particularly attractive, but if you have the room they are a very cost-effective secure storage location. I agree with Eccles, that after TSHTF it will be very hazardous to be accessing your stored preps. Much better to have them close by.

Blue Ridge Mountain Mom – at 11:35

Went over to dinner at BIL and SIL’s place last night. We all had a big discussion over the terrorist situation in the Middle East. We briefly skirted around bird flu. (Never leave a chance to rib the ‘crazy’ prepper alone, I guess.) BIL’s statement about the bird flu. ‘It’ll be just like Katrina. We’ll need to survival loot what we need. We have plenty of ammo stocked. What about y’all?’

Sent chills up my spine. What will dear hubby do looking down his brother’s gun?!?

Anon for this post – at 11:52

I am reminded of something I overheard many years ago, not meant for my ears, delivered with a big raucous laugh, so I don’t know if it was stupid show-off or the truth: “When in ***** (stars: country name), we pillaged, raped and killed”. Be warned. Keep preps secret or as little known as possible either from your fellow citizens or from anyone in authority. No other comment.

Blue Ridge Mountain Mom – at 12:06

My standard reply since May: We’ve got enough preps for 2 weeks. We just don’t have the money to prep; we have to save for vacation in December. Seems to throw people off the scent.

Kathy in FL – at 12:29

I’m “lucky.” I have a ready made excuse for encouraging people to prep. Hurricanes.

I’ve tried … with various levels of success … to encourage people to prep water, if nothing else. We are now running into the “problem” though of having a very lackluster hurricane season after such as spectacular one the last couple of years. <sigh> People are really letting their guards down.

I can see the same scenario playing out in other types of prepping. Unless there is something “in their face” most folks put it on the back burner … some until it is too late.

LMWatBullRunat 12:55

BRMM- Ammo together with the skill and the means to expend it should be a standard part of every person’s disaster preparations.

The accounts of thugs looting those better prepared after Katrina really had me shaking my head. What were those people thinking? Under normal conditions about 1 in 100 will injure you or kill you to get what they want. During emergencies those proportions can be expected to increase. Prudent people prepare for “civil unrest”

Blue Ridge Mountain Mom – at 13:05

LMWatBullRun - 12:55

We live near Gainesville, GA, THE Poultry Capitol of the World. We ourselves have plenty of ammo ready, too. Having been inundated with Hurricanes since Hurricane Hugo in 1989, there is ALWAYS civil unrest after the hurricane. While watching the images of Katrina looters, I came to the realization that I too would be out looting baby supplies if I’d been stuck in New Orleans with no money for prep.

It was just disturbing to hear BIL say that about the looting. They’re not prepping for food or anything even with a 6 month old infant in their home. HOWEVER, he’s fully prepped on ammo. I’m sure that there are a lot of people in my area that are like that. My area of the Blue Ridge actually reminds me of Afghanistan and Iraq. It would be almost impossible to throw a blanket over an area that backs up to 1000s of acres of national forest. Let’s hope that everyone will be focused on the poor b%$#@%ds in Atlanta.

LizBat 13:11

“Patton’s 3rd Army … essentially took whatever they wanted… discovered a huge hidden wine barrel and one soldier shot a hole in it and they took turns standing under the stream of wine with their mouths open. When everbody had their fill they just walked away.”

Military in a war zone tend to be young, and have a sense of comaraderie that excludes civilians, so whatever you have is theirs because they saw it, the fact that you (non-military) are standing there as owner doesn’t register. War zone means the usual rules of society don’t apply (the troops say to each other).

I worked with the miliary for several years. A lot of the lower rank troops had a moment by moment sense of reality, and little awareness or interest in how their actions would affect other people. Like, one guy would take a card out of a deck (belonging to the recreation room) to light his cigar with a flourish. I pointed out that meant no one could use that deck to play cards. He looked puzzled, and said that didn’t have any effect on his cigar lighting ability, so what’s the point? (I handed him a thick piece of paper and he was equally happy to use that to light his cigar, but he still didn’t understand why I was telling him not to use a playing card, when that works just fine to light his cigar.)

Translated to prepping, I guess this means if the military come looking for food, assume they will waste/damage a lot of it right in your presence. Like, if they see a big box of cookies they’ll take what they want and throw the rest on the ground not out of spit but because having taken what they want they’ve lost interest in the remainder, it is of no use to them and in their world that means it is of no use.

If the time comes, be aware of the human tendencies to abuse power, reward self, and waste free supplies, before offering any of whatever extra you have to the people in charge. Find ways to make any offers in a way that limits these potential abuses.

Medical Maven – at 13:23

As long as you have a gun you have a choice in what your fate may be and how you might want to spend your last few hours or moments. You might not prevail, but you ultimately will not be somebody’s object of abuse, derision, slavery, etc. “Life at any price” has been tried many times, and it has been found wanting.

LMWatBullRunat 15:13

MM- Perhaps a new screen name- Patrick Henry?

Carrey in VA – at 15:21

LizB

Scary thoughts, thanks for posting.

Medical Maven – at 22:51

LMWatBullRun: Only if I get to play his role in real life. Otherwise, as far as I am concerned, Mr. Henry is in the clouds far above me with the rest of The United States Founding Fathers.

LMWatBullRunat 23:05

MM-

Yes indeed. “The gentlemen cry ‘Peace, Peace’, but there is no peace! Our chains have been forged to our wearing! Their clanking may be heard on the plains outside Boston! What would the gentlemen have? Is peace so sweet or life so dear as to purchased at the price of chains and slavery? Forbid it, Almighty God! I know not what course others may take, but as for me, give me Liberty or give me Death!”

LMWatBullRunat 23:12

LizB-

What you describe has been common to armies throughout history, which was one reason the Founders viewed standing armies or ‘select militia’ as anathema to a free nation. Technology may have changed in 230 years, but people are the same now as then. ‘Power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely!’ (Lord Acton?)

During WW2, one of the armies fighting in Europe cut the heads off their dead opponents and stuck them on steel spikes to decorate their tanks. (hint- it wasn’t the British, or the French, or the Germans or the Russians. It was the US Army)

Leo7 – at 23:29

LMWWatBullRun:

The real question is did PH actually fight regularly or did he just give speeches? I mention this as my tolerance for fiery rhetoric lately is zero. Give me a real leader-one whose in the dirt with me. I don’t know the scoop on ole Henry.

 I posted a URL in the CFR thread I thought you might like to read.  The Army’s assessment of the 1918 flu complete with charts for soldiers by state, disease, etc.  Excellent medical history read if you’re interested.
LMWatBullRunat 23:38

Saw your comment there Leo7 & will check it out. Have to check my history books but I think “old Thunderer” did serve in the field, but I’ll have to check that.

no name – at 23:54

My story is I am collecting a “care pallet” for the victims of the latest “disaster” in the news. That the “agency” hasn’t come to pick up my donations yet. Conclude by saying I will be so glad when the stuff is out of my house. End of story.

22 August 2006

Oremus – at 00:29

Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely.

        Lord Acton, Letter to Bishop Mandell Creighton, 1887

LMWatBullRun – at 23:12 Bravo!

Texas Rose – at 02:11

Doing a quick search on Patrick Henry finds that he led a Virginia militia in 1775.

What was interesting to read was that the phrase “Give me liberty or give me death” may not have actually been uttered by him but written by a biographer after the fact.

23 August 2006

Hurricane Alley RN – at 10:09

bump

24 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 21:49

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Mysterious Migratory Spread Slows and Does That Delay Panflu

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Mysterious Migratory Spread Slows and Does That Delay Panflu

24 October 2006

Medical Maven – at 09:08

Part of my calculations for a 95 per cent chance of panflu by the end of next year was contingent upon the continued linear expansion of High Path H5N1 to the rest of the world by migratory birds. Because it is partly a numbers game in order for the virus to find that unlucky combination in the right set of circumstances. It is also a matter of finding different species to mix with and different viruses to borrow from.

As it is, with Indonesia still bubbling and China burying what it finds, I still might have to decrease my prediction down to 50 per cent by the end of next year, if this SEEMING odd lack of spread continues. And that is not only because of the truncated “numbers game”, but also because there is no reason why H5N1 should not have kept spreading on into North and South America and through the rest of Africa. Maybe the virus is becoming less adaptable to migratory spread?

Or maybe it has spread, and we can’t detect it. But Dr. Nabarro in a recent interview seems to be surprised that the spread in Africa has not been pervasive. And I am surprised as he is.

And was the Prince Edward Island episode a fluke or was High Path H5N1 never there? But if it was there why aren’t we seeing more?

treyfish – at 09:28

Invisible government sky fence.Installed 3 monthes ago!Dr N is speaking too soon i believe.

Tom DVM – at 09:54

Medical Maven.

We all only have our life and professional experience to go on. What has occurred in the past six months and is occurring now is pretty much how I would have expected it to go…

…with nature and disease…quiet means nothing and being lulled by a ‘calm’ is very typical of pathogens.

In a sense we get to look into the box through a pin hole…at the moment there is a lot going on in many areas of the world…but there is even more going on that we can’t see at the pathogen level…

…it doesn’t care about winter and summer…and seasons…it moves in silence, beyond our comprehension…like ants in an ant colony, it is always moving.

In my opinion, based on my experience, H5N1 is silently going to produce all the mutations required for a full pandemic virus, it will wait until every expert calls the all-clear…and then it will pop-up and go SURPRISE, I’m still here!!!

In nature there is always a calm before the storm.

Tom DVM – at 09:55

The ‘if’ question has been answered…we just don’t no what imminent means in nature’s context.

The only real question to me is ‘how bad’…and we won’t be able to answer that until the pandemic starts.

Hurricane Alley RN – at 10:33

I think this question pops up everytime this virus gets in its quiet mood. I know I’m giving human chacteristics to this virus, but it makes it easier to understand. All I can say is when it comes out of its quiet mood, it doesn’t disappoint us. I’m not lookin g forward to its next active appearance. Are we just in the eye of the storm? Perhaps it’s the quiet before the storm. We will see soon enough. I truly hope this virus burns itself out. Until I actually see that happening, I will not hold my breath. gina

Medical Maven – at 10:40

I understand the “under the surface” qualities of viral evolution. But still I am stumped as to why we have not yet seen migratory bird die-offs in North America such as was reported (and seen) at Quing Hai Lake in May of 2005. It has been conjectured that the area is so vast up north that these die-offs could have been easily missed. Now that the birds are migrating south something should be seen, if High Path H5N1 has made it to North America.

mom11 – at 10:45

You know…Not everything, related to this virus has to be seen negatively….There could be some hope somewhere……Mabye you are right MM! Why didn’t this virus, just leap like the 1918 flu? Why is the H5 finding such a hard time at becoming H-H-H-H-H-H? Where were all the other previous bird die offs, prior to the past pandemics???? This virus is struggling…Not to say it won’t, but maybe it WON”T!

Tom DVM – at 12:15

Medical Maven. I expect to see H5N1 in migratory birds this fall but don’t forget, it has to be asymptomatic in them or they wouldn’t be flying in the first place. If it is asymptomatic in them, it won’t be seen clinically. Secondly, we have already seen sudden deaths this fall…one in British Columbia was supposedly due to mould in grain they (240) birds had eaten…Hogwash!!…and others are supposed to have died from Botulism because it is common in the fall…point is that we could have small isolated outbreaks and not know it.

Therefore, H5N1 could be here and we won’t see it until it shows up where we can’t miss it…in the much more susceptible poultry flocks…since that is a chance encounter, it may take a little longer to happen.

I recieved information last spring that a duckhunter who hunted each year in Western Canada, has a number of Chinese tags. Therefore, we know they are in the migratory routes…we just don’t know how long it took for them to get here. Obviously, it appears not to be one year…the jury is still out on the two to three year time period.

Jewel – at 12:23

Tom DVM-

I really enjoy reading your posts, you are an intelligent, no-nonsense kind of guy!!

Medical Maven – at 12:33

Tom DVM at 12:15-Thanks for your excellent review. Are we possibly seeing a cover-up starting from Prince Edward Island? Or is it that they aren’t digging that deep?

But if there were a cover-up, wouldn’t so many people know it that the truth would get out?

Or, like you said, maybe I am jumping the gun timewise here. For instance, we really don’t know how many minor die-offs preceded Quing Hai Lake.

mosaic – at 12:38

From Oct 20, Effect Measure. Title: “No news doesnt mean good news.”

“The migratory bird scenario for global spread has yet to materialize, possibly because wild birds are a minor part of the geographic spread which is mainly driven by human movements that bring infected birds from place to place.”

I personally dont know what the story is anymore. Believing the migratory bird scenerio, I fully expected HP H5N1 to have arrived in the Americas long ago. If it has, it’s not official. I guess we will have to wait a bit longer to see what develops.

Tom DVM – at 13:36

Medical Maven. I think Prince Edward Island Canada was incompetence not a cover-up. I am not sure whether it was high path H5N1 or not…I don’t think Dr. Niman had any evidence to be making the claims he did either.

I think the thing is that you have to be patient with nature. It takes ‘it’s sweet time’ to show you where it is going…and I don’t think H5N1 is nature’s fault…

H5N1 was a human folly…directly and indirectly.

Migratory birds are spreading it but we are doing an as good or better job in Asia. There is lots of underground movement of birds and meat products…products discounted by restriction always find a market somewhere…that’s how we ended up with BSE in North America (contaminated bone and blood meal was restricted from sale in Britain but not stopped from being exported at deeply discounted prices).

Things are going pretty much the way one would expect at this point. If all the experts say the danger is over…watch out!!

Jewel. Nice to meet you and Thanks.

Hurricane Alley RN – at 13:46

Don’t forget the Hush-Hush system is still up and running. The fact is we are really very clueless as to what is really happening. TPTB and the No Panic Rule are still hard at work. No government or country is prepared for a pandemic. From a governmental view, it would be easier to keep the masses calm since they know they have no control over AI. Governments are only going to release enough information to keep people like us off their backs. They are also well aware we can do nothing about it. We need more information! We will most likly never see. Okay…Next rant. gina

Thats Just Ducky – at 13:47

Medical Maven – at 12:33

I would not expect that HPAI will be announced in North America until the first human case is confirmed. This has been the case in other countries, as I recall, just don’t remember which one(s).

Thats Just Ducky – at 13:49

Hurricane Alley RN – at 13:46

I believe you have hit the nail on the head.

Urdar-Norway – at 19:26

dont forget that H5N1 actualy manged to spread via migratory birds form East Euorpe /Russia into Sentral Europe and scandnavia to just disapear like fog in the morning… where did it go? It was right there, in the eastern sea, a sea with plentifull of birdlife, and then nothing.. For me this tells me that the oriontologist was right all the time. Its poultry traffic that is the real spreader, and if it enters an area with poor vetrienarian services it becomes endemic. Since Europe has taken this very seriously the virus just dident seme to have a chance.

good for us. …..but.. the lack of avian flu means lack of pandemic knovlegde and interest. Media don´t give a damm anymore and everyone just laughs and say” what did i tell you, its was a hype, a media scare”.. sadly they will probably in the end be mistaken.. The pan dont need “western ground to start, it has plentifull off gueana pigs in asia and parts of former soviet union.

It also tells us that we can if we want to, eradicate the virus everyhvere, its just very very expensive, and i dont think the solution is to ban family breeding pf poultry (as the industry is probably trying to convince authorities to do)

Now.. when are you americans going to make a clear defintions differnce about birdflu and panflu? That online reasearch form in canada I was filling out is still pissing me off, since my answers must seem to be schitsofrenic… :-/

Medical Maven – at 19:38

Urdar-Norway at 19:26-I hope that you are correct and that the primary means of spread is “poultry traffic”, but if we can’t stop the “human traffic” what makes us think we can stop the “poultry traffic”?

It is all very mysterious as the title of my thread denotes. We are dealing with a ghost.

Jody – at 19:55

I am still keenly interested in the die off of eider ducks in Nunavut this summer. It was called an “unprecedented outbreak of avian cholera” by the Canadian Gov’t. The problem was, they had not tested any bird. The report of the day said that since the island where this occurred was unsavory with 2000 dead nesting ducks and their broods, and gulls picking their bones clean, that samples were going to have to wait until things were less unsavory this fall for people to go in and take samples of what was left. As you can imagine, if this was bird flu, all those gulls died, and they were eaten by foxes etc. Has anyone ever heard a follow-up to this?

Urdar-Norway – at 20:07

Jody, the reason I belive that H1N5 si not in N Amercas, is that to get there they have to pass Norway, and its a long flight. Not one single bird has been found here. And everyone has been looking. Next year maybe, but probably not this. If it happen It may be via a southern route, but if so the Latin Amercias will be hit first.

I realy dont think the wild birds are able to spread long enough. They dies before they gets to long, or get well and dont spread. Whats seems to be needed is that they share the job with poultry, Wild-tame-wild-tame…. Once its get into a chicken house its spreads to nearby water with manure, then the wildbirds get it and spread it some miles, over and over.. The maps shows this. the mixture of roads, farming and flyroutes. I read that the outbreak in Turkey was with chikens bought from a big farm, and that smugling was taking place..

Jody – at 20:44

Hi, Urdar-Norway: My grandmother was from Oslo. So how is the aurora these days? I do agree that the passing back and forth of the virus ensures its continuance, but I also have read of birds that circumnavigate the polar areas. Long distance flyers are a possibility in my mind.

Urdar-Norway – at 21:12

shit. I forgot the Beringstrete, thats wery close to Alaska and Asia..

(hmm.. where is that anlog atlas, I am sure I have prepped one…)

Urdar-Norway – at 21:45

Jody, The Aurora has not been seen yet, but when the autom rain is over I am looking forward to enjoy it without the streetlights hiding it, since I moved out of the city :), Are you preping bacalao ? it keeps well without frezzers. I allmost forgot about it, only cans and rice.. Now I will boy me some dried cod :D

If alaska and nothern canada is the most plausible rout, it may just be a small animals desaese. I dont think chikkenfarms are so tight up there, and I also think you have good vetrinararys, and good hygien in chicken facilities, maybe we will never have a problem with H1N5 in our regions?

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Local Indonesian Doctors

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Local Indonesian Doctors

21 August 2006

Bottomline – at 10:06

I haven’t seen this anywhere…

If there are unreported sick Indonesians in the rural countryside, I would assume the local “health care worker”, witchdoctor or whoever is the first “healer” sought out to care for a sick person.

Have we heard any reports about those local HCW sickening and dying? Would we?

Annoyed Max- Not mad yet – at 13:32

I don’t think you would hear anything but I have heard there has been a shortage of garlic, chicken feet, and eye of newt.

24 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 21:42

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Case Identifying

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Case Identifying

21 August 2006

Thinlina – at 13:01

The number of H5N1 human cases going upper all the time, it’s getting confusing to know are we talking of the same victim or another. Could it be possible to identify victims like for example A, B, C, D, E and so on? Like in a village the index victim A, the second B etc. If there are cases that haven’t been tested but thought to be before the index case, they could be like -A, -B etc. If in a family, could be A1 → A2 → A3 → B1 → B2 → C1. A1 being the first victim in a family as well as B1 and C1. Might be a little easier to follow the victim threads.

24 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 21:37

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Stone Soup

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Stone Soup

12 August 2006

Lorelle – at 13:55

A long, long time ago I posted a story about the woman and the stone soup. Well, today on our block in the city we made it real, not because of a famine, but for fun and unity. The young people planned a brunch for this morning and blocked off the street. They weren’t sure where everything would come from but printed out a menu. Sure enough, before noon we had a table full of trays of bacon, grits, eggs, etc. to feed a crowd with a little left over. I said, to myself, this is good practice for hard times. I refrained from singing my pandemic song “Get ready, stay ready, hard times may be coming…” If we put together what we all have, it looks a lot better than looking at just a box of grits for your daily food. I guess this is more of a comment than an opening for discussion, but I hope someone has a story to share too.

Melanie – at 13:59

The story is here.

DennisCat 14:13

Make sure you heat any food gathered from a BF region to 165F or higher.

The church here has pot lunch every Sunday. We serve anyone and ask no questions. The problem, of course, is that with BF you don’t want gatherings of people. However, calling a neighbor first and taking something like soup that they can boil might be a good approach. I can envision “front porch trading” where one person leaves a can of pea, etc and other gather it and return soup or stew. —All transactions done by calls and leaving things on the porch so there is no “social contact”.

I have something similar in mind for water here. I have plenty of water but many around here do not. (this is NM) So I expect to give, exchange or trade if anyone needs water around here.

Lorelle – at 14:44

DennisC: That’s good advice. If flu comes around we increase the physical distance between neighbors without losing the connection. Let’s strengthen the resilience of those connections now so they can survive the stretch.

When I was growing up in Alaska our church called it “pot-luck”, and the natives there had something called “potlatch”. It’s such a good way to form community and I think it’s missing in so many lives these days. A lot of problems might be solved by a weekly shared meal.

Lorelle – at 14:47

Melanie, you are really on the ball as always! My memory changed the story around a little, but same message.

Lily – at 14:47

A church I pass on my way to the YMCA pool has a sign up. Free dinner on Friday nites. I’ve never stopped by, but I am curious about it. They seem to have been doing it for at least 3 years, so people must go.

DennisCat 15:03

Lily – at 14:47

Trying not to get into religion…. Our church has the “potluck” lunch each Sunday. We get quite a few people from other “churches” as well that show up and many bring a “dish” with them. It is a small town and works quite well. We also have snacks and home made icecream for teens after school on Wed.

But again, with BF the name of the game is to keep social distances. I would think that soup or stew would be ideal. The idea is to have things you can boil.

The church here now has title to an older church building that we hope to set up for emergency evacuations. (fires, floods,..) But I don’t think it would work for BF. We hope to have some “snow fun day” events (tubbing, ice sculps, snowman contests ….) and have “prep” type items as entry “donations”. The idea is to develop some emergency supplies.

Average Concerned Mom – at 15:16

Funny thing about that Stone Soup story — the version I recall has the townspeople hiding their rations from the soldiers, not because of a famine, but because the soldiers had been riding towns “requisitioning” their food!

Old Tyme stories have new meaning to me these days, for some reason.

Lily – at 15:20

If while I’m on my frugality binge I decide to go to the church I pass for a Fri. dinner, I’ll take Dennis C. suggestion and bring a few cans of something for their pantry offerings. Everyplace around here has a donation bin for the pantry for people who are down on their luck. I usually chuck in a few things every other week or so.

20 August 2006

Lorelle – at 17:57

Besides food, other things can be started up from scratch. A young mom on our block started a day camp with no funds but what was donated, and fed the kids lunch every day donated by other mothers. Camp was free for the kids. No overhead costs. They blocked off a short street and set up chairs and umbrella/tables for their activities. We (neighbors) were glad to see them doing something besides jumping on cars and creating a nuisance, so when asked for food donations, we were glad to help.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 20:46

Years ago, when I attended church at the Student Center at our college, my husband and I would go to Tuesday services at the Episcopal Student Center and have free Soup Supper afterward. While in that soup line one night, I found out that my first husband was having an affair!

The girl in front of me turned around and said that she had not realized that we lived in her building but she’d been seeing my husband leaving her building several times since she’d started getting up earlier to run since it had cooled off some.

Free meals can be soooooo entertaining.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 20:47

PS we lived in a student trailer park across town & I thought he was getting up early because of a promotion at the restaurant where he worked…..I used to be so dumb.

21 August 2006

Kathy in FL – at 10:00

Our family (the kids and us) sometimes pick stone soup supper. Its kind of fun. Everyone gets to pick their own veggie or meat to add to the pot … we have a huge stock pot that I use for this. The trick is that that have to prep whatever veggie/meat they chose.

Even the 2 year old got to add something to the pot last time we did this.

I use a base of V8 or veggie cocktail juice for this. Leftovers are also used as is rice and pasta.

Sometimes stone soup is definitely a “soup” and sometimes it is closer to a stew or casserole. <grin> But it is usually quite delicious.

24 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 21:36

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / What Fluwiki Has Done for Me

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: What Fluwiki Has Done for Me

21 August 2006

Crazy American Lady in the Village – at 04:58

A lot of the threads are getting very “heavy” due to the events around us and I thought I would just lighten it up a bit. Even if BF never hit (yeah, right) I am a better person for finding you folks. This is how the Wiki has affected my life.

1. I now regard electricity as a luxury not a necessity. 2. I can now bake my own bread 3. I enjoy my life and my time with my family far more because I know the good times probably wont last. 4. I enjoy knowing that come what may, I can feed my family. 5. My home can now be heated with firewood, which gives off a lovely smell. 6. I am much better insured. 7. I am very happy to have found like minded people

I guess this is to say THANK YOU to each and every one of you that makes up this community, and a special THANKS to the mods

Jumping Jack Flash – at 05:07

I’ve been prompted to ponder the possible end of civilization, examine many moral and ethical issues, and question my spiritual well being.

AnnieBat 05:46

The Wiki has reminded me that we are in a global village and that basic human hopes and fears are borderless. I have found the Wiki enlightening, encouraging and calming.

And with getting involved with doing the news summaries, it has given me something to fill at least an hour each evening :-)

Green Mom – at 08:33

Flu-wiki has become a major componant of my social life! Ive tried other forum groups/discussion sites etc. This is the one I keep coming back to. I really enjoy the discussions-even though they are often quite grim, and I appreciate the fact that people don’t slam each other.

Because of flu fears I insisted that everyone in my household get physicals/dental work done NOW! As a result, dh had major dental work done that he was putting off, and a small lump was detected in one of my breasts-fortunantly benign-but what if it hadn’t been? Early detection would have saved my life!

24 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 21:35

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Pet Preppers II

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Pet Preppers II

28 June 2006

Bronco Bill – at 02:05
MAV in Colorado – at 16:37

http://www.approvedgasmasks.com/pet-shield.htm

30 June 2006

Orlandopreppie – at 02:06

silversage, I can speak to your question. I have four dogs, four cats, and three birds. I buy dry food in bulk and have for years. I get it in bags, but move it to the sealed buckets that I bought with pet food years ago. For prepping I use my vacuum food sealer. I do this with bird seed, bird pellets, large chunk dog food, small chunk dog food, and cat food. It really works. You can get a vacuum sealer kit at sams club for 130 or less. It comes with bags and cannisters. It’s saved me a fortune in cheese alone…more importantly, it’s kept the moth population exterminated from the bird seed.

I am assessing the medical needs of my mixed brood now and will have to contact the vet. I want so much for them to be okay. I have middle aged and elderly dogs, young to old cats, and toddler/teenage parrots. Nobody mentions birds in a good light on this forum, but they are my babies too and I fear a neighborhood panic of stampeding ignoramus’. There’s just not much one can do to silence an Umbrella Cockatoo. So, I prep.

MAV in Colorado – at 16:05

I am concerned about cats and dogs as potential H5N1 vectors since the virus was found in some mammals. In many of the cases I did read that the animals had been fed infected fowl. There is an article re domestic pets (cats/dogs) and SARS on the Wiki somewhere that briefly discussed the possibility of this. Until H5N1 comes to the US where pets are so common we may not have a chance to know. Maybe Tom (DVM) could comment on the possibilities :).

silversage – at 19:47

Thanks, Orlandopreppie. I do have a food sealer. I’m going to start that right away so I don’t have to throw the new bag I just opened away!!

Many Cats – at 21:03

Orlandopreppie: Just because it’s the Bird flu, doesn’t mean we don’t love our feathered friends. I feel sad for them because they are getting decimated and can’t protect themselves. There are folks on here wanting to protect their flocks. I had a sparrow who lived to be 13 years old. You are among friends! :)

DoubleDat 21:19

I was stockpiling dried dog, cat, and ferret food… but switched to keeping canned food for my emergency reserve… out of concerns of bug/rodent infestation of the bagged dry feed stuffs. I have too many critters to repackage it properly - so I am opting to the canned products as a result. I still keep two months of dry goods on hand… but that is the extent of what I am willing to have around and rotate through.

I feed our wild birds and squirrels - and have about a month of supplies on hand - but in an emergency I would begin cutting them back and ultimately cut it off altogether - as my priorities would be on the dependent critters and humans - not the wildings that can fend on their own naturally.

We also keep a “pet care” kit supply - wormer, flea products, ear mite medications, doggy aspirin, nail clippers, etc.

15 August 2006

bgw in MT – at 23:01

I’ve heard some people say that they plan on keeping their dogs inside all the time if they have to SIP. We have a very old (17 years) and incontinent dog. She gets to make trips outside but it’s completely unpredictable when she might have an accident. We have found something that has worked pretty well for us for over a year now. PetSmart sells something called a “diaper garment”. The brand name is “Simple Solution”.

These are a lot like the little pants that are put over a baby’ diaper. You use an adhesive pad inside the garment. They sell special pads for this purpose, but this is too expensive, so we use the pads that are made for human feminine incontinence and cut them in two pieces. I make sure the cut-end sticks out the back a little so it doesn’t wick onto the cloth of the garment. We chose the kind that are made out of jeans material and they have proved very long-wearing.

The pads that we buy from WalMart are 60 for $9.95, so after they are cut you get 120 pads per package. The pads are sold in different absorbencies. Our dog wears a small size (8–15 lbs), but the size range goes up to XXlarge (90 to 120 lbs). I’d hate to have to buy pads for that size though. ;-)

I think they make belly bands for males. I just thought someone might be interested. Let’s hope that it never comes to this extreme.

21 August 2006

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 07:35

bgw in MT – at 23:01 Great idea!!

24 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 21:35

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Page last modified on October 24, 2006, at 09:35 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Non-anonymous Community Network

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Non-anonymous Community Network

27 June 2006

kparcell – at 12:51

I am working to create a global network to support community preparedness for global crisis. My specific project is emergency local currency, and my work will be presented at a UN sponsored conference at the end of August. The conference (IDRC-Davos) will focus on strategies for sustainability in the 21st century, and will be attended by emergency preparedness officials from every country. Others working on community preparedness for pandemic must also be interested in such a network. I believe we need to work together, and obviously we need to work with real names so that the work will be credible. Those wishing to participate, please contact me through this forum or through my personal website.

The emergency local currency project is also linked through the address below.

Kevin Parcell http://homepage.mac.com/forever.net

anonymous – at 15:53

bump

DemFromCTat 16:50

bump. excellent project!

lugon – at 17:01

Forum.EmergencyCommunityCurrencies?

28 June 2006

Bronco Bill – at 02:02

Bump

21 August 2006

Bronco Bill – at 00:31

Bumped for visibility

anonymous – at 00:45

why do you concentrate so much on local currency ? Why is this related to community preparedness for global crisis ? Seems, this idea is crisis-independent.

24 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 21:19

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Should I Start Quarantining

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Should I Start Quarantining

19 August 2006

laura in pa – at 11:27

It seems that AF activity is picking up and my teenage daughter is planning a trip to Sacramento, CA. There are connecting flights there and back. Being that CA is so close to the AF hotbeds, when she comes home, I am thinking of setting her up in her room as kind of quarantine for a few days. She’d probably LOVE it with a tv, phone, ipod, books, getting to eat in her room, no jobs to do, etc. What do you think? If I do, how long should we quarantine?

Bronco Bill – at 11:32

Laura….I travel up to Sacto all the time (I’m 2 1/2 hours away). Not to worry…there ain’t no flu here…

tjclaw1 – at 11:33

I’d be more concerned about possible exposure on the airplane if it goes H-H.

Z – at 11:34

“…CA is so close to the AF hotbeds…” Stupid question, obviously I’m missing something - how is CA close to AF hotbeds?

Bronco Bill – at 11:37

Z – at 11:34 --- Direct flights from Asia to SanFran, San Jose, Sacramento, and Los Angeles, as well as Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Seattle.

banshee – at 11:37

laura in pa – at 11:27, IMO, I really don’t think that is necessary at this point. And, CA is really not close to Asia geographically. Additionally, many US cities now have direct flights to Asia - not just those on the West Coast. Plus, you might scare your daughter by placing her into “quarentine.”

bumping for bill – at 11:43

I guess I should have been more specific! I am concerned about the airplane and airport exposure. If there is so much AF in Asia and Indonesia isn’t it just a matter of time before someone exposed to or carrying the virus gets on a plane? I had this idea that the west coast was the natural entry point for flights to the U.S.

laura in pa – at 11:44

11:43 was me

banshee – at 11:50

laura in pa – at 11:44, It certainly is possible but I would say improbable right now.

Mosaic – at 11:50

PA is only, what?, 3 more hours away from the ‘hotbeds’ of AF activity than those of us on the west coast. Maybe an hour to two more these days with airport delays and all…. Just maybe that first patient who arrives in the US infected with eff.H-H AF doesnt even get off in LA or SF? What if he/she continues straight on a flight through to Chicago or NY or even Pittsburgh instead?

Olymom – at 12:09

I know I got my knickers in a twist over the KAro cluster and then there was . . . no significant news for some weeks. I’m not ready to quarantine or shelter-in-place just yet on this round (hubby travels overseas too). I will be watching the fluwiki daily however — it may be news that occurs 24 hours before your child arrives home that makes up your mind.

Best of luck.

Mosaic – at 12:16

What would be your aim in quarantining her? To keep you and any others from getting the virus if she had accidentally picked it up? If that is the case, how do you intend to get her home from the airport in a car, walking through the house, and into her room without touching you or anything or anyone else, and you from touching any of her things too? Will you make her wear a mask and gloves in transit? Will you and your family do the same when you meet her at the gate? Does she have her own private, attached bathroom? Incubation is stated to be 2 up to 8 days.

Grace RN – at 13:22

IMHO, no, not at this time.

NJ Jeeper – at 13:45

Z: 11:34 “…CA is so close to the AF hotbeds…” Stupid question, obviously I’m missing something - how is CA close to AF hotbeds?

There are no stupid questions at fluwikie!!!

anonymous – at 14:11

It might be worth doing it just for the practice. Why wait until someone’s really sick to work out details like getting items in and out of sickrooms safely (including the sick person, I suppose)?

Dude – at 14:21

We don’t have efficient H-H at this time. Wait. Watch. IMHO this is too soon for those actions.

anonymous – at 16:01

Right now, you are at a greater statistical risk that her plane will crash then that she will pick up AF. And, you are at a LOT more risk that the car taking her from the airport to home will have a fatal accident. Yes, I am preparing for a flu pandemic (as well as other disasters like a terrorist attack or an oil disruption or a tornado) but it is important to keep calm, have a level head, and understand mathematical probabilities suggest causes of death/illness are far higher for some things we don’t pay much attention to (lack of a good diet & exercise, cigarette smoking, food poisoning, auto accidents, falls, etc.) than things that we do obsess about that are very low risk. NOONE has died in the United States from terrorism in the last few years, but 40,000 die each year in auto accidents and 30,000 die from the REGULAR flu. Prepare but go on and live life.

anonymous – at 17:56

When my mom flew to the west coast during the Karo cluster,taking off on the day that WHO announced H2H2H,I asked her to wait for a week after she returned to come for a visit.Sounds like a whole different situation for you as my mom was driving herself and lives apart from us.But it definately crossed my mind that she may run into something nasty at the airport.

Malachi – at 17:57

Oh….That was me @17:56…cookies….

anonymous – at 21:11
Clawdia – at 22:03

If it worries you to this extent, perhaps the answer would be for your daughter to stay home, in the best interest of your mental health, if nothing else!

20 August 2006

anonymous – at 10:15

(bump)

anon – at 13:37

Laura in PA - to think that you would do this to your daughter with no justification whatsoever is scary and an indication of how illogical and stupid some people are. Your chances (and hers) of harm from bird flu at this stage are almost non existent compared to all the other things that could happen in day to day life. Just goes to show how far removed we are in the west compared to those who really have something to worry about.

NJ Jeeper – at 13:45

This is the 2nd time in this threada that someone has referrred to the question as stupid. Obviously she is concerned as a mom and wanted someone to tell her it was ok. I do not understand the lack of understanding on from some participants on this board. All this will do is tend to run off people (especially new people) who have fears but will not post because someone will call their question stupid. I don’t get it. Laura lives in my part of the country, is a mom and deserves some slack.

NJ Jeeper – at 13:46

In addition as some point we all will be asking these types of questions, it is just a matter of when.

Olymom – at 14:02

Laura in Pa, you’ve gotten a range of responses — but asking here is probably more helpful than calling your county health department (unless they happen to be one of the rare departments really on top of bird flu!). One of the posters on another thread (Tom DVM) refers to the current conditions as possibly the start of a marthon rather than a sprint. So far the clusters seem to be in rural villages (really poor folk who will not be buying airline tickets) — it is true that one person/case could change things, but so far, there hasn’t been H2H (human to human) spreading rapidly in a big city.

I’m sending my DH off to his travels with tumeric capsules (tumeric is an age old antiviral) — that may be like fighting a forest fire with a thimble of water if real BF is on his plane, but it makes me feel better and like I’m doing something positive. I’ll probably remind him how important it is to ask for a seat change if anyone in the vicinity is coughing (he’s too well bred to roll his eyes while I’m speaking . . .) I’m checking in with Flu Wiki for news constantly and we’ll amend the plans if the situation seems to warrent it, but we’re not ready to pull the plug on a long awaited expedition because of the rumblings in Indonesia. Hope this helps solidify your own thinking.

Jefiner – at 14:22

NJ Jeeper at 13:45

anon at 13:37 was short in his/her response, and I don’t think the question was stupid. It seems, though, that what a good many people are saying is that in proportion, there are many more common risks out there besides AF. I agree with the non quarantine approach at this time. You can’t stop living your life, because if you do then the disease/terrorists/calamity wins. Better to be adaptable, somewhat cautious, and scrupulous about washing those hands!

Z – at 14:48

NJ Jeeper – at 13:45 “This is the 2nd time in this threada that someone has referrred to the question as stupid.”

NJ Jeeper - No, in fact, her question was not called “stupid”. That is your interpretation and you’ve misunderstood. Careful about interpreting for others.

Z 11:34 - ““…CA is so close to the AF hotbeds…” Stupid question, obviously I’m missing something - how is CA close to AF hotbeds?” This was me and I was calling MY OWN question “stupid”, not hers. Didn’t want to offend - obviously California is nowhere near Indonesia, right? I didn’t understand and said I must be missing something. Too funny, I thought you were being nice to _me_ and reassuring _me_ that _my_ question wasn’t stupid!

anon called the action scary, illogical, stupid. Not her question.

NJ Jeeper – at 19:10

Ok ‘nuff said.

21 August 2006

laura in pa – at 00:04

i can now see what future reaction to the word “quarantine” might be. just the mention of basically offering my daughter a “vacation”, being waited on, lots of teenage toys, etc. elicited incredible hostility from some - not all, thanks to a few posters! perhaps it can give us an insight into why TPTB are very careful about speaking frankly to the public.

Thanks to those who defended my right to ask a question.

24 October 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 21:09

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 21:12

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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Page last modified on October 24, 2006, at 09:12 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Year Round Tomatoes

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Year Round Tomatoes

24 October 2006

Jarre – at 20:44
  [URL]http://www.canzoni.geniere.info[/URL]   [URL]http://www.mondo.magazzini.info[/URL]   [URL]http://www.giovanni.geniere.info[/URL]   [URL]http://www.tiscali.geniere.info[/URL]   [URL]http://www.destra.geniere.info[/URL]   [URL]http://www.pompei.magazzini.info[/URL]   [URL]http://www.puglia.geniere.info[/URL]   [URL]http://www.gianna.magazzini.info[/URL]   [URL]http://www.taxi.assicurativo.org[/URL]   [URL]http://www.cipro.assicurativo.org[/URL]   [URL]http://www.bella.geniere.info[/URL]   [URL]http://www.sardinia.magazzini.info[/URL]   [URL]http://www.pasta.assicurativo.org[/URL]   [URL]http://www.milano.assicurativo.org[/URL]   [URL]http://www.ebay.magazzini.info[/URL]   [URL]http://www.canna.assicurativo.org[/URL]   [URL]http://www.antologia.magazzini.info[/URL]   [URL]http://www.cari.assicurativo.org[/URL] 
Delete Thread Porn JWB – at 20:46
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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / National List by County of Emergency Management Contact Info

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: National List by County of Emergency Management Contact Info

24 October 2006

Annoyed Max- Not mad yet – at 14:58

I just found this and I found it helpful. Click on your state and then your county and it lists all the local emergency management contact info for your area. These should be the people that are making the plans for your community.

http://tinyurl.com/yj785o

Annoyed Max- Not mad yet – at 16:28

bump

Influentia2 – at 18:10

My county in Ohio is not on here. Am I surprised, no. I wrote to the Health Department here in June and they could/would not answer one question I asked. Unfortunately, where I live Pandemic Flu is pretty much a joke.

Leo7 – at 18:13

Mine said, “No recent news, check back later.” We all know what that means!

crfullmoon – at 18:15

Means, The pandemic hasn’t started yet! DOH!

Influentia2 – at 19:48

Leo7 18:13

I just checked our Health Department’s site. Has a link for more info on avian and pandemic flu that doesn’t work, “page not found” error message. So I sent them an email and let them know. I’m sure they remember me.

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Seasonal Flu Vaccine Question

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Seasonal Flu Vaccine Question

31 May 2006

anonymous – at 15:17

OK, so I’m a bit ignorant about how strains for each seasons flu vaccine are chosen. For the upcoming 2006/7 fall winter season in the Northern hemisphere, have strains already been chosen and is vacine in production? Are any of the H5N1 strains being considered for inclusion and would they provide any protection whatsoever in the event of mutations/recombinations that result in efficient H2H?

crfullmoon – at 19:21

I’d guess no; H5N1 kills most chicken eggs pretty quickly and takes way more than normal ammounts to make a vaccine, too. There are also not enough places making vaccine; they just can’t make enough for most of the population.

The H5N1 strains already being made into vaccines are probably only getting enough for anyone involved in the vaccine research and manufacturing process, some military, essential federal workers, ect, and probably not really enough for all those who need the protection; health care workers, first responders, ect.

http://www.fda.gov/Cber/summaries/vacc012406jp.pdf

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/SC0605/S00079.htm

Nieman Watchdog “If there’s a pandemic, will there be enough vaccine? ASK THIS | April 30, 2006 Some questions about avian flu are answered and others raised in an authoritative report by a dozen medical experts. We examined one issue – vaccines – and found the U.S. and the rest of the world won’t be anywhere near ready in an emergency”…

…”The news comes from the Influenza Report 2006, a study that combines layman-friendly content with technical medical information.

Though the population of the world exceeds 6 billion, only 900 million single-dose flu vaccinations can be produced in a given year.

This number assumes that all available manufacturers will produce vaccines at full capacity. To arrest the progress of an outbreak, however, most experts believe that double, or “bivalent” doses would be necessary.

“In an ideal world,” the authors state, “12 billion doses of monovalent vaccine would be available in order to administer two doses of vaccine to every living human being.” According to the United Nations population clock, the world population has actually pushed past 6.5 billion, which would translate to an additional billion vaccinations”…

…”The discrepancies between populations and doses and between the first and third worlds arise from the immense cost of producing flu vaccines: They are cultivated in evacuated chicken eggs, an intensive process that forces health officials to guess in February which flu strains will be most deadly come September.”…

…”For any public policy approach to succeed, political commitment is fundamental. Commitment includes not only anteing up money and allocating resources, but honesty and cooperation among various nations and levels of government. The report states:

One of the most significant factors is political and social willingness to acknowledge and report disease dissemination. Without this key factor, no further national action to prevent pandemics can take place.

High-level political support and commitment are necessary to develop a preparedness plan. Increased regional collaboration and networking may not only lead to the mutual support of people involved in the planning, but can also be used as an instrument for increasing international pressure and thus political commitment.”…

[[ http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/panflu/news/may0406vaccines.html | CIDRAP ]] …”It takes about 6 months to grow seasonal flu vaccines in eggs, and the eggs must be ordered well in advance. Growing vaccines in laboratory cell cultures promises to be a somewhat faster and much more flexible approach. The method is already used for a number of other vaccines, such as polio, hepatitis A, and chickenpox.

“Our current capacity of egg-based influenza vaccine production is not sufficient to meet increased demands during an emergency,” said Leavitt.

“Accelerating the development of this vaccine technology and creating domestic capacity are critical to our preparedness efforts.” …

01 June 2006

Leo7 – at 01:02

I don’t have a crystal ball but I’m predicting a shortfall in seasonal flu vacc’s this fall. No matter what some people hear or read they will believe it will prevent AF, and demand the shots. CDC recently changed the guidelines to include infants and if the reporting in MSM picks up people will clamor for it. If you take the seasonal vaccine it won’t protect you from H5N1 but it will keep you from having to recover from both which IMO is beneficial. After seasonal and childhood vaccines quotas are met etc, they will turn to AF vaccine production if they can synthesize one. I think TPTB are pretty successful with choosing seasonal strains overall, I think they have already chosen, but I don’t know which strains were selected. It should be on the CDC site.

Ralph – at 10:18

The strains selected for seasonal flu can be found here:

http://tinyurl.com/qxnxt

Leo7 – at 11:30

Thanks Ralph. On another thread Tom DVM expressed little confidence in seasonal flu vaccines. It was also suggested that so many elderly get it, that the numbers of effectiveness is off. With the addition of children I believe this will improve. I wonder how many at the Wicki got last years? I didn’t and got what was traveling around but tested my self care abilities and the usual medicines.

Janet – at 16:41

I got my flu vaccine last year (always do) and had my kids and husband get one also (not usual for them). I did so in that, if TSHTF at the same time that a regular flu is circulating, can you imagine catching both???

I know that the regular seasonal flu vaccine only provides 60 - 90% coverage but, I for one, will take those odds. Can’t imagine living through the bird flu only to catch the seasonal flu and die from it in that you were in a weakened state.

Guess I am willing to “shore up” wherever I can without too much additional risk.

CashBat 14:54

Well, for me, I used to get the flu every year and sometimes twice a year until I started getting the flu shot some years ago. I swear by them and will continue to get them every year they are available.

03 July 2006

anonymous – at 16:28

I read somewhere that they were expecting almost a surplus of seasonal flu vaccine this year. That was why more groups were being encouraged to get the vaccine— so some vaccine manufacturers don’t have the unused vaccine problem. I disagree with Leo7 who thinks that idiot general public will think that the regular flu vaccine will prevent avian flu and so there will be a shortage for that reason. It is possible that there could be a run on the vaccine, but I doubt it will be out of irrational fear. People might be more inclined to get the regular flu vaccine in response to the threat of avian flu but not because they think it will protect them from the bird flu. Janet stated one reason that concern about the avain flu might spur people to get the regular flu shot — because she’d hate to get both at once. Another reason might be that once H5N1 arrives in the US people would want to be vaccinated against the regular flu so IF they come down with flu symptoms, they will have erased SOME of the uncertainty about which flu variety they are dealing with. I’d be getting my flu vaccine anyway, but the two reasons I pointed out in reference to the avian flu make me inclined to get the vaccine as early in the season as possible instead of waiting until later.

glennk – at 18:11

I’m not wasting my Tamiflu on reg. flu! When I manage to find some that is.

lauraB – at 19:21

I think that if AI shows up in either domesticated poultry or wild birds in N America close to when the vaccine is available there will be a HUGE run on seasonal flu vaccine. Sure, some people don’t understand AF vs H2H. Others totally understand. Others realize that just the healthier you are if there is a pandemic the better.

Also, if one of the manufacturing sites gets shut down, etc. there will be another shortage like a few years back. Even last year I couldn’t get it and it was a “mild” season.

I wonder if the strain that is hammering S.Africa right now is included in this year’s version.

NJ. Preppie – at 19:50

Yes, we could have supply problems. I have found it hard the last couple of years to get flu shots, becuase they wanted the vaccines to go to elderly and high risk people. FDA Warning Flu Vaccine

WASHINGTON - The Food and Drug Administration issued a warning letter to drug maker Sanofi Pasteur over concerns about problems at a Pennsylvania manufacturing plant, the agency said Monday.

Sanofi Pasteur had reported that some batches of its influenza vaccine failed sterility tests in April, prompting an FDA inspection of the plant in Swiftwater, Pa.

Sanofi Pasteur issued a statement saying it is working closely with FDA and many of the agency’s concerns “have either been resolved or the FDA has accepted our proposed remediation plans.”

The company added: “With regard to the upcoming influenza season, we are confident that we will meet our manufacturing goal of approximately 50 million doses of influenza vaccine for the U.S. market.”

13 October 2006

anonymous – at 10:08

<u style=“display: none;”>… no changes … no changes … no changes … no changes … no changes … no changes … no changes … no changes … no changes … no changes … no changes … </u>

23 October 2006

Dennis in Colorado – at 10:48

Increased influenza vaccine production needed, says WHO

“… in order to develop a Global Vaccine Action Plan for Pandemic Influenza Vaccines, WHO organized a consultation in Geneva on 2–3 May 2006 and invited key stakeholders – from national immunization programmes, national regulatory authorities, vaccine manufacturers and the research community – to participate. The objective of the consultation was to identify and prioritize practical solutions for reducing the anticipated gaps in vaccine supply. The participants drew up an Action Plan with strategies for the short, mid and long term, aiming to increase influenza vaccine production and surge capacity before and during an influenza pandemic. They identified three main approaches: a) an increase in seasonal vaccine use; b) an increase in production capacity; and c) further research and development. The implementation of this plan will require the concerted efforts of countries, industry and the global health community.”

“The first approach relies on countries establishing clear immunization policies to increase the use of seasonal influenza vaccine. This will provide the vaccine industry with a solid demand forecast and stimulate it to increase production capacity.”


Notice that the WHO’s reason for wanting countries to increase use seasonal vaccine has nothing to do with the medical value of vaccinating against seasonal influenza. It is just to stimulate private companies to increase their production capacity, so they can be used to produce an H5N1 vaccine after the virus mutates to its pandemic form.
The WHO acknowledges later in the report that, “A vaccine cannot be developed with certainty until after the pandemic virus emerges.”

Leo7 – at 14:07

Dennis C:

I posted articles months ago on the news thread that said exactly this. And then what happens when flu season gets close? Webster with the AARP interview. You could hear the hoofs beating a path to the nearest flu clinic. This is all about making vaccines profitable for pharma—its working too—Pfizer just jumped in last month. They should focus attention on proving the medical value in the face of recent questions of how long they’re effective. But, why bother when everyone is demanding your product, never mind your plants have been cited over five times for contamination.

Dennis in Colorado – at 15:06

Actually, I don’t see it so much in the light of the short-term profits for the pharmaceutical companies — though that is a side effect of the WHO’s actions. What concerns me is the manipulating of various countries’ citizens in order to achieve the WHO’s goals. If the WHO wants nations to donate money to build vaccine manufacturing plants, that is one thing. But to ask nations to tell their citizens to be vaccinated, with the ulterior motive of that request being to increase demand for vaccines so that private businesses will increase their production capacity for the future … I find that reprehensible on the part of the WHO.

kc_quiet – at 16:20

This year , as usual, I was given my flu shot at work. What was unusual was that people who didn’t take the shot had to fill out a short questionaire about why they didn’t want it.

Madamspinner – at 20:41

kc_quiet – at 16:20

Us early birds were lucky ! On the KC news tonight, they said flu clinics have been suspended due to delayed vaccines…..now do we really believe that ???? NOT ME !

   Maybe they are switching game plans and starting productions of BF vaccine ???  Hmmm….I smell a rat. 

Considering that eggs are needed to produce vaccines,…what if ALL the USA chickens were to be culled = NO eggs for the vaccine producers …??????? Another Catch-22..

24 October 2006

kc_quiet – at 01:24

I just hope this wasn’t some that had frozen accidentally- I heard they recalled some vaccine because it was found to have been frozen. BTW I think its just the Health Dept clinics that are suspended. I hope!

Pseudorandom – at 09:46

kc_quiet - at 16:20

It’s not just your company. I just got an email from my university stating that everyone who doesn’t want the flu shot is now required to fill out a vaccine declination form, with a list of options as to why the shot was declined. They’ve never required this in the past.

crfullmoon – at 10:46

Perhaps so they can say you turned down offered vaccine, when they didn’t mention we are in a pre-pandemic alert period?

Then, if you don’t want to come in to work, because you haven’t even had the seasonal flu shot, or, if you get sick on the job they say, “you shouldn’t have refused the flu vaccine”? Will it affect businesses health insurance premiums or something?

(Never thought I’d be a curmudgeon already.)

Pseudorandom – at 10:54

crfullmoon - at 10:46

The timing of the new requirement (with respect to our pre-pandemic alert status) is certainly suspicious. I’ve asked them by email about their contingency plans and couldn’t get a response. And this is a medical university! You would think they’d have the decency to respond to legitimate requests for information about medically-related topics.

I’m currently taking the slightly-less-cynical route (rare for me) and hoping that they just want a record of who has/hasn’t had a seasonal flu shot to aid them in differential diagnosis when people come crawling into the clinic with the crud. Issues of vaccine efficacy aside, of course, because they would never admit to us that the shot isn’t perfect. ;)

Kim – at 11:00

Here’s one reason why employers (especially health care providers) might be requiring those who refuse a flu vaccine to state why they refuse…

(snip) Obtain a signed declination from HCP who refuse influenza vaccination for reasons other than medical contraindications (category II; suggested for implementation and supported by suggestive clinical or epidemiologic studies or a theoretic rationale).

http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/523611

Kim – at 11:10

Yes, refusing a flu vaccine may put you on the list to attend “re-education camp”… ;-)

Pseudorandom – at 11:36

Kim -

Thanks for that reference! I particularly appreciated the following: “HCP who refuse influenza vaccination should document their reasons for denying the vaccine, as these providers may be candidates for targeted education regarding the benefits and safety of vaccination.”

Re-education camp, indeed. Fortunately, I’m not a health care provider. I will just end up attaching the declination form to a short stack of printed peer-reviewed references supporting my reasons for refusal.

Leo7 – at 14:11

I wonder if anyone wrote on the forms, “Lincoln freed the slaves.”

When smokers, Diabetics, and the obese sign off on why they smoke, don’t manage their blood sugar well enough, and why they take in too many calories to burn off, I’ll sign off on why I didn’t take the shot. I made a paper basketball and shot for two points. It’s not their business. It would be easy to lie and say when I took my mom for her shot, I got one too. I don’t give a damn about their sick call statistics. Can’t wait to see what happens next? Put me off on administrative leave?

banshee – at 14:26

Regarding the questionnaire as to why an individual is refusing a flu shot, it is possible that someone is conducting a public health study as to why people refuse to be vaccinated. Could be that they are trying to figure out ways to increase participation in vaccination programs. Do the questionnaires ask for identifying information like your name, employee number etc? If it doesn’t, I’d say you are just part of a study - although you should always tell study participants that they are study participants and people should always have the right to refuse participation!

Bluebonnet – at 14:52

It’s a new Joint Commission requirement for hospitals. See below from 6/13/2006.

Joint Commission Establishes Infection Control Standard to Address Influenza Vaccines for Staff

Media contact: Charlene D. Hill Media Relations Manager 630.792.5175 E-mail: chill@jcaho.org

(OAKBROOK TERRACE, Ill. – June 13, 2006) The Joint Commission on Accreditation of Healthcare Organizations today announced the approval of an infection control standard that requires accredited organizations to offer influenza vaccinations to staff, which includes volunteers, and licensed independent practitioners with close patient contact. The standard will become an accreditation requirement beginning January 1, 2007, for the Critical Access Hospital, Hospital and Long Term Care accreditation programs.

“Preventing the spread of the flu protects patients and saves lives. Encouraging health care workers to be vaccinated can play a vital role in stopping the transmission of this potentially fatal infection,” says Robert Wise, M.D., Vice President Division of Standards and Survey Methods, Joint Commission.

The Joint Commission developed the standard in response to recommendations by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) making the reduction of influenza transmission from health care professionals to patients a top priority in the United States. While the CDC has urged annual influenza vaccination for health care workers since 1981, the CDC’s “Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report” published earlier this year calls for stronger steps to increase influenza vaccination of health care workers. Despite the recommendations, the vaccination rates as measured by the CDC remain low.

Studies show that influenza causes 36,000 deaths and over 200,000 hospitalizations on average in the United States annually. Furthermore, health care-associated transmission of influenza has been documented among many patient populations in a variety of clinical settings, and infections have been linked epidemiologically to unvaccinated health care workers. Typically, fewer than 40 percent of health care workers are immunized each year.

The new Joint Commission standard requires organizations to:

Establish an annual influenza vaccination program that includes at least staff and licensed independent practitioners; Provide access to influenza vaccinations on-site; Educate staff and licensed independent practitioners about flu vaccination; non-vaccine control measures (such as the use of appropriate precautions); and diagnosis, transmission and potential impact of influenza; Annually evaluate vaccination rates and reasons for non-participation in the organization’s immunization program; and Implement enhancements to the program to increase participation.

Leo7 – at 15:44

Bluebonnett:

Hospitals are open systems. Everyone from visitors, ministers, Fed Ex, UPS, water delivery people, floral shop workers, restaurant food delivery people, volunteers both retired and students, food vendors, buisness people, pharmaceutical salespeople, even JCAHO, visiting guest lecturers etc the list is endless who openly walk into hospitals, visit patient areas, eat in hospital cafeterials and don’t have to prove they’ve had a flu shot. And, yet they can say HCW’s are spreading influenza? We are one window of many many windows who might infect patients. I’ve said to several visitors who looked sick as stink to me that it probably wouldn’t be a good idea for them to visit in a critical care unit and they get mad because they are here to visit. I’m complaining but I’m getting out of the hospital when I finish my degree. All of those people manning the boxes in the stores giving flu injections are people who have left hospitals for various reasons. By the time PF gets here, who will be left? Paper pushers?

Pseudorandom – at 15:47

Bluebonnet - at 14:52 Heaven forbid that we disobey JCAHO. Thanks, that’s almost certainly why it was recently implemented. When asked, they say that it is to make sure that we are aware we should not be attending classes or clinicals if we are ill and have not had a flu shot. Duh. (sarcasm alert) Well, what about all of those people with non-influenza infections that have been vaccinated? Is it ok for them to go and cough and snot all over the hospital, just because it might not be influenza?

banshee - at 14:26 They do collect employee name and SS#, but they say that the information just goes into our file and won’t leave the clinic. I’m pretty sure our institutional review board would require them to notify us if it were a public health study, but I’ve been wrong before. Although if it is a new JCAHO regulation, it would certainly make a public health study along the lines of the one you suggested pretty simple!

Bluebonnet – at 16:20

Leo & Pseudo - agree with both of you. My fellow healtcare workers come to work desperately sick. We have just had a round of intestinal virus and colds due to folks who think they are soooooo important that they can’t miss a day or two. WTF??

Stay HOME if you are sick and leave the rest of us alone. Your germies are EVERYWHERE and we don’t want them.

Leo7 – at 16:41

Every Hospital pays JCAHO to make a visit. That’s right, hospitals pay JCAHO to give them a rating. Do you really think they will bite the hands that feed them? Hospitals know months ahead of time the exact day of a visit and there is a massive coverup of problem areas. HCW’s know this. At the last visit they spent less than 15 minutes in my critical care area-they walked through it. JCAHO recommendations carry no weight for me, I think of them as a coverup and farce, whose sole purpose has been to overwhelm us with useless layers of paperwork.

Leo7 – at 16:43

Bluebonnet: Didn’t know you were part of the pack. Didn’t mean to address you personally, just your topic. Sorry.

Kim – at 17:34

I’m not in the health care field, but I noticed something in Bluebonnet’s post at 14:52… look at the media contact’s name and info for this press release, then look at her email address. Okay, everyone, the JCAHO wants you to CHILL… too funny!

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.SeasonalFluVaccineQuestion
Page last modified on October 24, 2006, at 05:34 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Great Fluwiki Quote Thread II

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Great Fluwiki Quote Thread II

19 September 2006

Bronco Bill – at 12:38

Continued from here

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 14:45

BB, that could probably be the most famous quote of all: “Continued from here…”

Bronco Bill – at 14:58

:-)

Tom DVM – at 20:13

Endless speculation about the unknowable is pointless. Prepare to the extent that makes you feel comfortable….then get a hobby.

NW

NoFluingAroundat 22:27

Nature is the ultimate terrorist…the human terrorists are pretenders, nothing else…

Tom DVM

20 September 2006

Average Concerned Mom – at 07:25

They will hear you if you speak softly. H5N1 is the big stick you carry… (snip) … Remember, your kids always hear you when you whisper, but don’t hear a thing when you yell.

mj

Average Concerned Mom – at 07:29

That is the message i got from the Safe America Conference I got it from Dr. Nabarro, HESS Oil, Homeland Security, CDC, Motorola and a host of other major players that hold their money tighter than they hold their childrens hands when the cross the street.

They are spending money.

-Goju

21 September 2006

Average Concerned Mom – at 02:30

Be friendly. Be patient. Be helpful. Be aware that if they have any pandemic related responsibilities, they are now either going through or will soon be going through their first ‘adjustment reactions’. Be a resource, not a burden.

anon_22

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 12:22

Elder Berry – at 11:47 Prepping is definitely a good idea. I am a prepper and I agree 100%. I am not suggesting taking a break from prepping, I am suggesting taking a break from worrying and a sense of inevitable dread. It is not healthy.

Bird Guano – at 14:01

“To do nothing is unacceptable… to promise protection is unethical.” Mike Osterholm CIDRAP

Oremus – at 15:26

Elder Berry on sky is not falling thread:

Yikes! Sorry about that.

RobTat 17:57

The litmus test will be looking into your children’s and your neighborhood children’s faces and saying, “I did all that I could do,” and knowing deep down inside whether you’re telling the truth to yourself or not.

de Jure

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 18:09

NEMO – at 10:20 We are a warped bunch! Where other people like to look out on their driveways and see a nice shiny new car…we like to look in our basements, mudrooms,pantries and see nice shiny white plastic buckets full of food lined up and stacked high!! That’s a new twist on — beauty is in the eye of the beholder— for sure!!

AVanarts – at 10:23 to NEMO – at 10:20 I’m sorry, but I think you got that wrong. Beauty is in the eye of the bucketholder. LOL

Bronco Bill – at 19:25

sometimes it’s not that the sky is falling - it’s us who are jumping :-/

 ---lugon

22 September 2006

Tom DVM – at 12:20

Believe me, I’d like to close my eyes and move on. After all, life is good right now. I’d like to spend my money on a boat, motorcycle, hot rod, party barge, quads, toy hauler, RV, etc. A lot of people are spending their money this way and life is one big party. Too bad they don’t know or don’t want to know what’s coming because those toys won’t feed them.

In the mean time I have more preps to buy. Too bad I’m missing the party but for me the sky is falling.

Spok

23 September 2006

Tom DVM – at 15:31

I don’t think most people realize how radically the world has changed in the last ten years. We here are beginning to realize it. Most of the public still has “the past” in their mind’s eye.

Overpopulation and Crowding (human and animal), Global Warming, Pollution, Environmental Stress, Antibiotic Resistance, Emerging Diseases, Habitat Destruction (and and water), Accelerated Species Extinction (flora and fauna)-----And the rest we can only guess at (after all we are only 90 years from the “horse and buggy” days). As De Jure said, “too many variables”. And I would add “not enough time”. The Clock has run out.

Medical Maven…of course!!

CAMikeat 16:31

Disappointing ending…they let everyone go home and take some pills and all was well, no mention of prepping.

no name - in regards to the recent Greys Anatomy premiere in the Jericho thread.

Yikes.

Mike

24 September 2006

spok – at 10:41

If we dodge one bullet…we should not on one hand be self-congratulatory and on the other hand be complacent…we are facing a machine gun!!

Tom DVM

25 September 2006

enza – at 20:54

…I think those of us who are pleasantly plump…say twenty pounds overweight…have actually been subconciously prepping for years. /:0)

Tom DVM

Tom DVM – at 21:12

How can the lotus blossom know it is beautiful? It can’t know that, can it? We can see it’s beauty. We can tell each other about it’s color, shape, delicacy, and perfume. But the flower will never know that it pleases the world to have it live among us. We may even order our lives around the garden that the flower dominates and if we are lucky we may sit on a small bench and share hours of our time focused on it’s essential place in our life. To have and appreciate such beauty in life is a rare gift. Can you see the flower in a garden? Does the flower know what you feel? The world will not slow down long enough to know that the flower even exists. You will never even see the flower if you do not take the time to see life as it really matters. The flowers of all gardens only know that they must do what is in their nature. You do in life what you find to be the good, the true and the beautiful, how can you ever have self doubt on such a path? Does this not lead you to the flower?

eloquence by Dude.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 22:28

I’ll have whatever Dude’s having!

spok – at 23:28

Nice Dude.

It reminded me of the frog and the scorpion story.

26 September 2006

Tom DVM – at 10:40

Moeb - I am worried about best/worse case scenarios for a number of reasons. 1) the unkown: We have no idea how bad it will be in terms of infection/cfr rates. Right the CFR is truly frightening and we don’t know if it will decrease. 2) society: society back then was far more capable of surviving difficult situations. If things get even remotely bad(eg. SOME food delvery disruptions, MINOR power outages) I think people will freak. God forbid they don’t have cable TV for a week, let alone necessary medicines, etc. I got thru the LA riots and saw the very worst of people. 3)emotional fall-out: people back in 1918 were not immune to personal tragedy - losing a child was unfortuantely common. Large numbers of dead will effect our society for generations. 4)Economics: given our economc dependence on the world economy, the fall-out could last for years and years. We are at a stage where we have to do some serious savings for kid’s college funds AND the very likely scenario of having to take care of DH’s aging and impoverished parents. No work for an extended period of time means we wipe out our savings and then what?

I hate the “unknown”!

This heartfelt statement from LauraB.

Tom DVM – at 11:17

People can choose to encourage preparedness where they live. If the authorities do not listen, they can move to a place where intelligent planning is occuring. We cannot control the CFR, but we control our own destinys.

Monotreme

spok – at 11:56

Speeking of Monotreme, notice the time taht he posted this:

Monotreme ¨C at 00:13 Survival of the Preppiest or Do You Feel Lucky?

Pete Prepper and Louie Lucky were college roomates. Pete became a successful accountant and lives in Betaville. Louie dropped out of school (too many keggers) and became a used car salesman in Widgetville.

Betaville¡¯s major employer was PetPsyU (Pet Psychic University), the foremost University for educating Pet Psychics. Betaville was also known for making Bobbleheads of celebrities. Widgetville¡¯s main industry was a company that makes a key component for nuclear power plants. Many of the inhabitants have highly specific jobs at the Nukes ¡®R Us plant.

Pete, as his name implied, was an assiduous prepper. He read Flu Wiki and the other Flu Boards daily. He had stored enough food for 2 years, every solar gadget known to man, and an arsenal larger than Belgium¡¯s. When Pete spoke to his old friend Louie on the phone, he urged Louie to prepare for a pandemic. Louie laughed and said if one happens he will come to Pete¡¯s house. Pete said nothing but quietly resolved ¡°Over my dead body!¡±.

One day Pete noticed the Flu Wiki swan was feet up. After that, the internet went down. Pete called Louie and told him ¡°This is it¡±. Louie laughed, lit a cigar, and poped open a cold one before watching American Idol. Pete sealed his secretly fortified house. and waited.

Unbeknownst to either Pete or Louie, federal planners had drawn up a list of high priority cities that would receive a small cache of critical supplies. Bulk tamiflu had been manufactured in secret government labs for a year. Huge orders of MRE¡¯s had been prepared. N100¡äs, PPARs and respirators had been stockpiled. These supplies were quickly deployed in the key cities once sattelites showed villages going dark in China.

Widgetville was one of these key cities. Betaville was not.

The hospital in Betaville went down within a week of the first case in town. Essential services went down two weeks after that. Hungry Pet Psychics went door-to-door looking for food, but were given pause at Pete¡¯s house when his Claymore¡¯s starting going off. Pete had plenty of ammo, thanks to an old thread on the subject he had read on Flu Wiki.

Meanwhile, back at Widgetville, Louie received instructions to SIP. As he hadn¡¯t done any prepping, he was initially concerned about what he would eat. But shortly after the announcement regarding pandemic onset on the TV, some nice National Guardsmen came by with a pallet of MRE¡¯s which they dropped off at his, and everyone else¡¯s house. The hospital at Widgetville was fully supplied with Tamiflu. Although shifts were long and a number of people did die of the panflu, HCWs stayed on the job because they had sufficient PPE to keep themselves reasonably safe. They also knew that their families were safe at home with plenty of food.

One day Pete started to experience some pains in his side. After consulting his Home Health Book, he realized he had appendicitis. With a sick feeling he picked up the phone to dial 911, without much hope. Of course, no-one answered. Not being one to give up, he pulled out his Austere Surgery book, took out his medical supplies and planned to operate on himself. Positioning a mirror just right, Pete bit down on piece of wood and began to open his abdomen with a Ginsu knife. He did a pretty good job, in spite of the intense pain. Unfortunately, his anatomy was slightly different than that depicted in the Austere Surgery book, and he nicked his Inferior Vena Cava. As the blood began shooting out, his last thought was ¡°Oh, shucks.¡±

Coincidentally, on the same day, Louie also felt a pain in his chest. He was convinced he was having a heart attack and called the Widgetville 911. An ambulance arrived shortly, staffed by paramedics outfitted with PPAR. They gave him a quick H5N1 test, found him negative and took him to the hospital for further evaluation. His heart was fine. Upon close questioning, he admitted he had spiced up his MRE with alot of Tobasco sauce. A classic case of heartburn. He was returned to his home with a stern warning not to waste the time of the first responders or HCWs again.

After the pandemic was over, Louie¡¯s Used Car business thrived as new cars would not be generally available for another 5 years. Louie died 30 years later, ironically of a heart attack. His 4 wives and 10 children attended his funeral. He was interred with full honors in a magnificiant masoleum.

Pete¡¯s body was eventually found and deposited in a mass grave. The only record of his existence was in dusty archive of Flu Wiki found in a few research libraries. Under the handle ¡°I¡¯mReady!¡±, he had once asked a question about how much lard to use in a dish in the Beans and Rice thread.

60 years latter, Louie¡¯s many descendants resettled Betaville. They were so numerous that the town was renamed to Luckyville. No-one found it ironic.

spok – at 11:57

I meant: Notice the time it was posted : )

heddiecalifornia – at 12:37

From Science Teacher:

   “Reaching out to others to help spread awareness and information is the ultimate words to action effort. We can each take a chunk of what we have learned here and ‘give it back’ in the reality of own personal lives. This wiki is the bridge to make this happen.” 
Tom DVM – at 16:25

At this point in time itfs H5N1Œs world, we just live in it. But we have an underground movement started, its called the fluwikie.

enza

AnnieBat 18:24

From fredness – at 02:16 (Fluwiki communication in a pandemic thread)

I did a search on eham.net for the word pandemic and found this. It looks very interesting.

A Complex Contingency: A lethal and highly-contagious virus gradually begins to spread around the globe. Infection rates are high, deaths are frequent, and no vaccine is available. Cities all over the world fall under quarantine. Emergency services and medical centers are stressed and national government agencies, affected just as severely as the cities themselves, cannot provide assistance.

And then the situation goes from bad to worse.

27 September 2006

Tom DVM – at 08:57

I know I keep repeating myself, but I’m going to use exactly the same example that I used before to challenge those of you who think 12% (or something in that range) CFR is mild.

Hong Kong is one of the world’s most advanced economies. It has more millionaires per square mile than anywhere else in the world. It has a high literacy rate, an extremely low rate of people dependent on welfare. It has one of the best public healthcare systems, and it is small enough for policies to be implemented rapidly and effectively. It has a population of just under 7M.

SARS infected 1733 people there. Within weeks, they had to close ALL hospitals to non-urgent care. All schools were closed. Hotel occupancy went down to single digits. Airports and restaurants were deserted. Unemployment rose to historic highs, and a GDP drop of >2% resulted. In the end, 300 people died.

An influenza pandemic virus with a clinical attack rate of 25% and a CFR of 2% will kill >30,000 people in that city in that same timespan.

How does one calculate the impact of something that kills 100 times the number who died during SARS?

And that is only with a CFR of 2% and an attack rate at the lowest end of estimates.

The biggest flaw of almost all national pandemic planning so far is not in underestimation of the numbers, but in underestimation of what those numbers mean.

anon 22

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 16:25

DennisC – at 20:30 0n his PPF#: I was down to a 3 but it just popped up to a 4 after seeing the new Thailand death. They missed H5N1 in the first 9 tests then they finally got it right. The last listing the Thai government had was, “Cumulative number of patients under surveillance are 4,976 cases AI case site has gone off the air and the last listing (24th) “ and “of which 7 cases are under investigation“ is not giving me a good feeling. I know I am worrying too much. But if they are just now announcing H5N1 in a death from Aug 10, misdiagnosed it 9 times, and have thousands of patients “under surveillance”, that is exactly how I though “the start” would be.

Tom DVM – at 16:33

From above, the quote should read:

At this point in time it’s H5N1’s world, we just live in it. But we have an underground movement started, its called the fluwikie.

enza

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 17:32

FROM THE HOUSEWIFE THREAD Visitor – at 16:55 said: I’m fat with a master’s degree, PHD and a six figure salary and have never been a housewife. I know one thing, fat or not, I couldn’t do a housewife job for all the tea in China. Should a pandemic strike, I would bet that it is the housewives who will keep the family going and will find more strength and resources than the rest of us. Given a choice between some of the ‘high flyers’ that I work with, I know who I would rather have on my side.

NS1 – at 17:17 responded to Visitor this way: You’ve made an extremely valuable assessment that many here may have missed . . . the strong connection between the daily work of managing a family (the practice, if you will) and the ability to secure a family’s future in times of difficulty (the game).

My coaches always said, “You play like you practice!”, loudly and repeatedly, when we failed to perform a required drill at full speed with full heart. Coaches aren’t always philosopher/poets, but they are frequently warrior/taskmasters and the master logisticians of the world. So don’t giggle just yet, please.

In PF51, parents in many families will be thrust into the role of the starting lead player in a game for which they have never even practiced. In fact, they don’t even know the general rules of the game because they’ve abdicated responsibility to the daycare provider, the school or the kind grandmother. I use the word, game, euphemistically because we all understand the deadly seriousness of this potential pathogen.

I’ll make a firm prediction, the first that I’ve cared to make on this board in many hundreds of posts.

The families that have a consistent parent at home who knows the children and is supported by the spouse will have attack rates and a CFRs that are at a minimum 25% lower than families that have two parents who work outside the home and spend less than 2 hours per day of face-to-face time with their children. Regardless of economic strength.

In the middle to higher economic groups with a parent at home full-time, I expect the reduction of attack rate and CFR to approach 40%. Resources and will power allow a more powerful solution.

Start calculating and realise that the engineering design and the brute power required to put a pillar in place when a building is falling is more than most projects can bring to bear.

Those families that have the pillar of a full-time parent in place now will be in a much more admirable position if PF51 arrives.

Tom DVM – at 17:49

They keep telling us to get in touch with our bodies. Mine isn’t all that communicative but I heard from it the other day after I said, “Body, how’d you like to go to the six o’clock class in vigorous toning?” Clear as a bell my body said, “Listen witch… do it and die.”

NoFluingAround.

spok – at 17:57

Bronco Bill:

“Sorry, Sarge. I got distracted here at work and had to wait to post.”

LOL, I hate it when that happens :)

Tom DVM – at 19:10

At least I think it’s you, but it could have been your other brother anonymous or any one of 50 of your cousins with the same name. ;^)

Spirit In The Wind

Tom DVM – at 19:13

Sorry, Spirit In The Wind…it should have read spiritinthewind.

28 September 2006

Tom DVM – at 00:22

What exactly is mental hygiene?

New York City is very old. The name of the Health Department there comes from a time when mental illness was separated from physical illness. Frankly, I think they should change the name to represent 21st century understanding of mental illness, but then again, they’ve got a commissioner who would embarass the citizens of 17th century New York.

Monotreme

Tom DVM – at 08:54

“if this killer virus hits, the country’s infrastructure will fall apart. The hospitals will be overloaded. Most of us don’t realize how interdependent we are for food. In a pandemic, people would get sick, the gas supply would stop, food would not be there.”

Recent Dr. Webster quote….by HighdesetAZ

Tom DVM – at 11:04

…the reasons I am concerned about the present situation with regard to H5N1 and the potential of a pandemic have nothing to do with what so-called experts are saying or not saying.

It has much more to do with the following facts-

- H5N1 has demonstrated an accelerated infection of humans;

-H5N1 has (contrary to what the ‘experts’ said beforehand) demonstrated not only that it can infect humans but that it is now capable of human to human transmission, and that in the course of doing so it is capable of progressive adaptation.

- The present Case Fatality Rate for H5N1 infection in Indonesia is around 75% or better. Lest you think the US would do better, I remind you that we have only around 4 million treatment courses of Tamiflu available in our stockpile.

- At least 3 of the last 6 influenza pandemics we know of were reputed to be as bad or worse than 1918.

-At present, the US can produce only 10–20 million doses of vaccine per year once the strain is known, and there will be a 4–6 month delay in releasing vaccine, if one can be produced. Presently H5N1 is killing the chicken eggs before vaccines can be produced.

There are no “experts” on this, and I hope that there never will be! Hope, however, is not a plan, and what the FACTS tell me is that I face a very serious potential threat to me, my family and my friends….

LMWatBullRun

Tom DVM – at 11:40

I actually find it more fascinating to watch the people that are watching the show. I think to myself, “Wow, they are hypnotised and transfixed that easily! I should have been a T.V. producer. I would be ruling the world by now!”

JWB

Tom DVM – at 12:28

Even for us who have been immersed in this exercise for many months, when “the pedal hits the metal” on hard choices, it is hard to maintain absolute belief in the inevitable threat. The seductive tug of our current reality is overwhelming and everpresent.

Medical Maven

JWB – at 13:37

JWB. The only pencil I have every used was a HB…what the heck is an 8-D pencil?

Tom DVM

Tom DVM – at 13:47

8-D That ain’t a pencil! That be my smiliy face! Heres one with hair $8-D

JWB

Tom DVM – at 13:48

Surge capacity is a joke and I no longer discuss it. It won’t happen unless they lay towels on the floors and call them beds. BTW, Good Luck!

Leo7

Tom DVM – at 14:47

H5N1 vs. Humanity-Which is the unthinking, unrelenting juggernaut? Who is debilitated by fear, indecision, and incompetence? Who will attack its own kind? Who needs a regular supply of water, food, and shelter? Which feeds on ever ready flesh and flies on the wind? Who adapts slowly on the evolutionary scale? Which mutates at hyperspeed to meet the environmental demands?

We are a rabble (even under the best of circumstances) as compared to H5N1.

Medical Maven

Tom DVM – at 15:12

mutters something about compassion, the natural tendency to bind together in the face of adversity and the will to do what must be done regardless of probable death

moeb’s answer to Medical Mavens comments above.

Tom DVM – at 15:36

A very wise and elder fluwikian once remarked that some who post here have a flawed view of what a pandemic will be like. They have made plans for staying at home for 6 months or so, and after that they will turn on the TV, watch their favorite show, and later go out to Starbucks for coffee. It will be bittersweet, because some of their friends will be gone but then again they won’t have to wait in a long line.

The actual reality of a pandemic that even starts to approach the CAR and CFR numbers we so easily toss about is beyond comprehension.

Hillbilly Bill

Medical Maven – at 20:23

IMO they are conceding that the battle is lost before it has begun. Not a nice thought. Sun Tzu would be pleased with our non-sentient little friend.

The Sarge

Monotreme – at 21:28

We get Samuel L. Jackson and start with “We’ve gotta get this Mutha F*@#ing Bird Flu off this Mutha F*@#ing planet!”

anonymous, suggesting a public service announcement to raise panflu awareness.

DennisCat 22:14

DARWIN – at 22:08 How has it become resistant to tamiflu if H5N1 has not had SIGNIFICANT H2H ? Or are people feeding their chickens the tamiflu in a desperate attempt to save their live stock ?

great question.

29 September 2006

Blue – at 12:32

That eaerosols is a way of infection is clear. What is not clear is that this means that “it will crawl into your eyes, ears or your under your toenail”.. Did not the study antcipate the differneces between upper and lover airways in conjunction with droplets sice? Yes. Not a single word about faceshields being inadekvate. I am not saying that a pair of skigoogles dont belong in your preps,(they are in mine) but this is still not “a virus from outer space”

DennisCat 12:36

from the Health Minister of Indonesia.

….Health Minister Siti Fadillah Supari said any conclusion on human-to-human spread could not be based on small cases. “You cannot just declare there is human-to-human (transmission) from a doctor’s examination. It may need thousands of cases first,…”

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 15:57

Blue Ridge Mountain Mom – at 15:32 Sometimes, this whole situation reminds me of one of those over dramatized Hollywood movies depicting a mega disaster. I think the common thread in those movies, and we’ve seen this common thread played out in real life with disasters like 9/11 and Katrina, is one that is depressingly being played out today.

The officials know that there is a potential problem, but they’re going to need more concrete data before alarming the public and disrupting the economy. We’re not getting all of the information from scientists and government officials because they are more worried about their everyday pissing contests than being worried about the big picture.

We’re not getting the MSM involved yet because of that pesky little word HOPE. When it boils right down to it, we are all on this flu wiki preparing for the worst, but HOPING for the best. TPTB are HOPING for the best case scenario. Hope is dangerous because it is not a plan, and it will keep the human spirit going far beyond a point than most people can imagine. Hope is awesome in that it allows people to survive and conquer insurmountable odds…. but it will keep the blinders on TPTB until just as it is too late. It is a bittersweet irony that what has helped us make achievements and strides as a race will keep us searching until the bitter end for a solution. I fear we will be the monkey with his fist caught in the flu jar. We will be unable to release the flu problem long enough to get our hand out of the jar and give the alarm bell a tug.

Klatu – at 19:29

Mother Of All Clusters

Q A WHO spokesperson has called these new bird flu cases the mother of all clusters. What is your reaction to that?

May 25, 2006 ABC Health News

http://tinyurl.com/nngtk

cactus – at 20:52
 I think he was refering to the earlier one involving those 8 people.
Pixie – at 21:04

Klatu - at 19:29 and cactus - at 20:52: Well, the mother of all clusters has finally given birth, it seems. That WHO spokesperson may have had it right.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 21:17

Dennis in Colorado – at 20:45 Eyeswideopen – at 20:21 I think you will find that Mensa is pretty well represented here <grin>.

30 September 2006

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 00:35

Tom DVM – at 23:11 I’m glad they have decided the seasonal flu vaccine might work for H5N1…because it doesn’t work for seasonal flu.

Tom, if you ever decide not to DVM, you could give ‘stand-up’ a go!!

Medical Maven – at 09:48

Quote at 00:35-

Tom, I did not see this on the orginal thread, but I am grinning from ear to ear with a chuckle burbling out. You are a corker.

Tom DVM – at 11:26

“We didn’t know then (nor we know now) how far the train was, whether it would get all the way to us or how fast it would be going if it did get to us. But we could feel the vibrations on the tracks and we knew enough about train wrecks of the past to worry. … …Now it’s almost two years later and the bird flu train has not arrived. But the tracks are vibrating more strongly, we can hear the engine noise more loudly and we know the train is in the vicinity, crashing through half the world’s poultry flocks, flicking off various other mammalian host species and the occasional human (251 at last count). We know much more about the virus than we did two years ago, but some of what we have learned is that what we thought we knew was wrong. That’s progress, but of a peculiar sort. Still no effective vaccine in production and no likelihood of significant quantities for several years, if then. Uncertain quantities of antivirals on hand and with uncertain efficacy. And public health systems still tottering on the edge, with social service systems weakened as well. These are gross failures of government, and those government failures are traceable to gross failures in leadership.”

Revere at Effect Measure

Thanks DennisC

Tom DVM – at 11:45

I hope you are right anonymous. The thing is, if people listen to the doom-sayers and the doom-sayers are wrong, people are left well prepared for any catastrophe, but if they listen to you and you are wrong they get to watch their children starve or worse.

Oremus

anonymous – at 11:57

“Standard & Poors considers the likelyhood of this type of pandemic [1918] re-occurring to be extremely low”


{Standard and Poors, “the world’s leading provider of independent investment research, indices and ratings” in 2005 when rating the Vita II mortality bonds expiring 1.1.2010 }

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 15:56

DennisC – at 15:41 said:

Santa Claus is real - I know for sure for “I are one” - I still believe that parents love their child, that children play make believe, that dreams can come true, that giving from your heart gives a warm feeling, that even on the longest and darkest night of the year there is hope, …… As I said, I have never had Santa let me down yet.

FrenchieGirlat 16:07

moeb – at 09:59 — wait just a cotton picking minute.. paint my ego red, but I think if I survive I’ll be quite handy at resurrecting civilization. Count on it! (smiles.. good morning)

Klatu – at 17:41

We either make history, or we become history.

“Medclinician wrote:

It is very important to realize that people from the the highest levels of government and their advisors and assistants are reading these forums. You are making history.”

Rick wrote:

“If WHO has adopted the New Zealand Pandemic Plan protocol as their template which includes monitoring the Internet, then I would not be surprized if the posts on such sights are frequently sampled to provide for better spin control.

We either make history, or we become history.”

http://tinyurl.com/mvohh

__

“… down the telegraph wires would come these almost unbelievable stories”. 1918 Pandemic

NS1 – at 17:43

Medical Maven at 13:20 on Anonymous Posts to a discourteous anon.

Your imagination is as limited as your capacity for courtesy.
I’m-workin’-on-it – at 23:40

econ101 – at 23:34 Wait till it goes pandemic……It will be like trying to grab hold of a nucluer reaction.

01 October 2006

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 08:27

Medical Maven – at 10:17 Another Anonymous at 10:12-“There are no ‘rules’ that say a person has to have a handle here”.

There are no “rules” about “passing gas” at the dinner table either, but considerate people refrain from it.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 08:28

Tom DVM – at 09:47 Hi anonymous. Thanks for starting this thread. In all things, it is not good to have ying without yang…you can choose which one you go by.

At one time I was the contrarian, way out in left field. Authorities were saying 2–7 million, I was saying hundreds of millions…I didn’t know about Dr. Osterholm or Dr. Webster or anyone else for that matter. I was my own one man army and it was mildly painful.

Now, your position is the contrarian one…and I am the mainstream…funny how things work out.

I am grateful that you continue to balance things on flu wiki but you should give your personal reasons for feeling a mild pandemic or no pandemic is going to happen…or if you use other scientists you must give also a defendable scientific argument on the facts as you know them…I am not sure that has been happening so far.

My position is that we don’t know but every indicator indicates that this will be in the more serious tier of pandemics and that history has now fully demonstrated that serious pandemics are the norm rather than the exception.

I don’t think we are in for one pandemic…I think we are in for a serious of 2 or 3 or more in the next twenty years.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 08:31

Jumping Jack Flash – at 11:14 to Oremus – at 10:59 …….If I may, let me add a thought: The thought of defending my family from panflu or civil unrest for months or years, only to drown in my own bodily fluids, terrifies me.

But the thought of watching my children perish, from something I was warned about and chose to do nothing, well, that there horrifies me.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 08:38

bgw in MT – at 16:01

When more than one eminent expert has labeled the virus in question as the worst flu virus they have ever seen, (including the 1918 virus) I’m going to think that it is LIKELY to be a severe pandemic.

If you dissuade even one person from prepping as much as they are able, then yes, you will be morally responsible for a death in the event of a severe pandemic.

Tom DVM – at 14:16

“Lie…Deny…and then Act Surprised.

Canadian Broadcasting Corporation…on bureaucracy and agencies.

02 October 2006

Tom DVM – at 10:09

Meanwhile, back to fighting “the long defeat”.

Good luck to all of good will.

crfullmoon.

Tom DVM – at 10:50

“The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to its close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences.”

Winston Churchill(1936)

Thanks to Snowhound 1

MnEagleat 10:55

Medical Maven:

“Hope” is, indeed, not enough in the direst of times. You need an “in-your-face” attitude even as and when the worst happens. I suspect that is part of what I will find when I read that book “Deep Survival.” It is part of what I have found in myself in the darkest of times. A “new” mode of living and thinking will have to be REINSTITUTED by all would-be survivors.

And I will also muse that if you and yours must end, do so with courage and cheer because those energies will expire with the wind.

MnEagleat 10:57

Inky:

It won’t be our supplies alone that save us—it will be tenacity, resourcefulness, and hope.

cactus – at 11:06
 Tom DVM


 I think everything that the World Health Organization states should immediately go to the rumour thread until the information can be confirmed by an independent scientist. 

03 October 2006

Klatu – at 10:32

Does The Music Sound Familiar?

Titanic’s band

“One of the most famous stories of Titanic is of the band. On 15 April, Titanic’s eight-member band, led by Wallace Hartley, had assembled in the first-class lounge in an effort to keep passengers calm and upbeat. Later they would move on to the forward half of the boat deck. The band continued playing music even when it became apparent the ship was going to sink.

http://tinyurl.com/ge9tb http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RMS_Titanic

Does the music sound familiar?

Tom DVM – at 16:40

anon at 16:08-Were you the anon just on the PPF thread? Trying to build a profile on you so that I can hold you to task, if I see some inconsistencies show up later. But if you were not that anon, what was your previous submission recently? Or are you totally new to this site, and the above is your first submission? Or are you the old “gs” with a better accent? (An inside joke if you are a new anon, a recent anon, or an anon with a poor memory, or an anon who just skims and does not take in detail well.

Medical Maven

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 18:50

Leo7 There’s a dichotomy in the words you write: 1. You’re worried about people who pay you no mind when you try to inform them and then if “it comes” you’ll shoot them. See?

and shortly after: Bluebonnet Where did we lose that sense of world community? Has capitalism taken us to a place where we no longer care for our world neighbors? Is this why we have so many horrendous acts of violence? Have we truly forgotten to “love one another” in the quest for the almighty dollar?

Sad, sad, sad.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 21:05

inthehills – at 20:39 velveeta.the glue that holds lutheran familys together. ---garrisson kieller

04 October 2006

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 08:42

Spoon on avianflutalk.com It’s not so much the apocalypse… but the credit card bills ;-)

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 15:45

GREAT EXCHANGE: Texas Rose – at 14:18 That reminds me-I need to crank up the El Cheapy radio I bought a couple weeks ago to see if it even works. It’s still in the bag…hanging from the coat closet door handle…I’m nothing if not on top of things.<grin>

Watching in Texas – at 14:21 Texas Rose - bless you for your candor and for making me feel less lonely in my perpetual state of disorganization when it comes to my preps;-)

Texas Rose – at 14:26 I figure I’m doing great just to be prepared. Nobody said anything about being organized.:D

05 October 2006

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 17:07

JWB – at 16:48 Don’t forget to prep your mind. This isn’t going to be a camping trip.

06 October 2006

Tom DVM – at 22:52

Ethics, it is all about ethics, and the lack thereof will be our total undoing. And the lack of ethics breeds and feeds incompetence. Ethical behavior impels you to go the extra mile to properly discharge your duties. You have a bunch of factotums at all levels going through the motions of protecting public health. It isn’t that they don’t know that they should be better informed. It is that they really don’t give a damn. Too many people going through the motions and thinking about how little they can do to get by.

Medical Maven

Tom DVM – at 23:05

Doctor says to dying patient, “Don’t worry, we are now much more able to track how fast you are dying.”

anon 22

07 October 2006

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 11:54

It’s long, but well written and another reason it would be nice if people would pick a handle so we could give them credit………

anonymous – at 01:42 The Other Side Thread…

Quite a topic,…assuming, yet daring. I’ve been reading FluWiki for exactly one year now, and I think it’s time I said “Thanks.”

If I and my family make it to the “other side” intact, I do owe it to many of you here. (And I do mean to make it -intact.) I haven’t contributed in many, many months, but I do try to check in at least once a week. I know that many of the old-timers are probably doing the same. We’ve been down the adjustment road, we’ve been through the depression and panic. We’re prepared as best we can be, and we’re ready as we can get. And we don’t mean “bring it on”.

I’ve loved the jokes and daily humor. The fantastic quotations that we’ve all forgotten about -that remind us what being human is all about. I found out the good that the internet can bring- and it made a “doubting Thomas” into a believer.

Some of these people are still currently posting and some have faded into the archives, but these are my Saints in this crusade. Take Notice….Number One: The Reveres, (keep doing it) but remember that we think both sides are crooks. Number Two: The Mods, God bless You. Thanks for giving up so much to listen to us.

And everyone else, in a somewhat alpabetical order- don’t hold me to it… Anon 22 (very wise person-i know you’re a Pharmacist), All the Moms, (they speak from their heart), Bill, not enough can be said about you. You make us laugh, you make us think, you work tirelessly. Thank you so much. Bruce, The Many, Many Cats,(you know who you are), Eccles, Grace, Hillbilly, Lugon, MaMa (the One and Only), Maven, Monotreme, NS1, Niman(THANKS SO MUCH!), Path, and Urdar. There are so many others- I’m only thinking off the top of my head so excuse me if I’ve forgotten you.

OH MY GOD!- I did forget someone very special…TOM-DVM… My Canadian, Veterianarian of choice…the voice of reason in any storm, The Man. Tomas, thank you for contributing nearly every single day. You will be a hero to me always. And to your readers. You will never never know how many you have saved. But you are my hero, and thank you from the bottom of my heart.(thanks to your dear wife also).

08 October 2006

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 09:52

crfullmoon – at 08:28 KimT, “I made them mad with my questions, they made me mad with their answers”

-That about sums up the pre-pandemic alert period.

crfullmoon

10 October 2006

Tom DVM – at 12:00

As the pandemic returns to the news in the coming month and fears rise again, additional people will begin to see the issue more clearly. This process will evolve and as it does, a growing number of people will begin the process of preparing for pandemic. Inevitably, the vast majority of people will not be prepared and have no clue what to do. This is in the nature of humankind and is one of the reasons this pandemic has the potential to be so devastating.

Dr. Gratton Woodson

DennisCat 12:30

I am not really sure if this goes here or not - but it is the closest thread I could find.

Here are a LOT of quotes from “experts” about H5N1. It is worth reading.

http://tinyurl.com/ea86p

There are lots of quotes, here are a few: “It’s the most dangerous influenza virus that I’ve ever seen.” - Richard G. Webster

“The threat of a pandemic is the most important public health issue we face today. The signs are worrisome.” -Bruce Gellin, director of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services’ national vaccine program

“Day by day, alarm-bells seem to be ringing louder as new outbreaks are reported.” -Kofi Annan, UN Secretary General

“The U.S. Government has purchased only 4.3 million doses of Tamiflu…enough for just 1.5 percent of Americans.” -Fortune Magazine, Nov. 14, 2005

“In the face of a pandemic, the available supplies of antiviral drugs would be used up in days.” -Dr. Robert Webster, Infectious Diseases department of St. Jude

MnEagleat 12:42

Timber:

1. A year ago, a lot of folks took my prepping recommendations as alarmist paranoia.

2. Six months ago, folks started telling me they were starting to stock up and talk to their loved ones.

3. Nowadays I regularly see mid-level bureaucrats in government and corporate America recommending people prep for a month or longer.

The CFR may not have changed, and I’ve been convinced for several years that this was going to bite us, and bite hard, sometime. Now, however, we’re in better shape to have a significant number of folks come thru.

The work of FluWikians has made a difference. We ain’t where we should be, but we can take a punch to our collective solar plexus a whole lot better than we could when this effort was started.

Hats off to the mods and the rest of the folks who invested their reputations and bank accounts to help us all!

lugon – at 13:41

Any quotes from Europe?

DennisCat 18:44

diana – at 18:31 Surviving Winter Without Power

“WE are married to our comforts, but can stand a separation if need be. “

11 October 2006

BUMP – at 07:59
Tom DVM – at 21:51

Are you sure about this? Are those who earn 100k a year, live in 3,000 foot McMansions, those who need to consume hundreds of litres of fuel a week to get to work, the fittest people to populate a post pandemic world? The most worthy? Ahem, no.

Ottawa Guy

Grace RN – at 22:10

no name – at 21:57 10/12/06

Bird flu is the ulitmate equal-opportunity killer.

InKyat 22:30

Grace RN - this is like a mod, because the relevant thread had just been mercifully closed.

Swann – at 22:53

Monotreme - at 22:33 10/11/06

“…Fluwikians don’t panic, we lead”.

Madamspinner – at 23:15

“If you can change it…change it (Prep ) If you can’t; ( people who don’t listen )…forget it.

We can only do so much.

Tom DVM – at 23:51

“The amount of semi-professional “rock throwers” on this site absolutely amazes me.”

Are you giving a lesson?

Monotreme

12 October 2006

Tom DVM – at 08:55

I vote for packets for every citizen with antibiotics, antipyretics, and oral replacement powders to be available. Have packets put together for children based on weight. If allergic to antibiotics, provide substitutes with written guidelines for consumption. MRSA is bad, but failing to provide basic meds in an emergency would be worse. It’s doable and we’re not talking a hundred pills. We’re talking a normal dose for a respiratory condition. There are times when people must come first, not policies or guidelines.

Leo 7

crfullmoon – at 09:26

“So, do I want to take 1.) the risk that a lot of people might say “You are crazy!” or do I want 2.) take the risk that when the pandemic hits a lot of those same people panic, starve, suffer, die…

Quick moral decision making process: I take number one, rather being perceived as crazy than losing a lot of people I care for.”

orange-brown

crfullmoon – at 09:38

“Bureaucrats see the present push to prepare for panflu

as a larger threat to their existance than the flu itself.

That is why there is so much bureaucratic inertia. “

LMWatBullRun

Tom DVM – at 11:53

OK. This is a dream that I had some time ago, but it is becoming more relevant (to me at least).

It starts with me entering my dining room and seeing on the table a book that looks familiar. (This book only looks familiar to me in my dream, as if I had read it once, and have seen it discussed on TV). Without opening it I glanced up at the calendar to see what today’s date is because the book begins with a specific date. The book is a published diary of a 12 year old girl. As I look at the calendar I realize that she started the diary ten years ago on this very day. Today is October 18th, 2016.

She started her diary on what would become known worldwide as “The Day”. She begins it by stating her reasons to start one: Things have suddenly become very scary. Her parent’s nightmares have come true, and the family sat down that evening for a very sobering talk.

Throughout the book she describes her parent’s early panflu deaths, and the accidental death of her older brother. I can’t recall any details about those. But I do remember that in her extreme loneliness she lets a stray cat into her house, which leads to her downfall.

I vividly remember the last page. It was written on her last day, where she finally realizes that she will soon see her deceased family and with her last sentence she writes, “God, I forgive you”.

After waking up from that tear jerking nightmare I realized the parallels to Anne Frank’s diary and Alas Babylon’s “The Day”. I nearly fell off my chair when I saw the Alas Babylon thread. So for me, I’ll be somewhat relieved when October 18th comes and goes. It’ll mean somewhere a twelve year old girl doesn’t have a reason for starting a diary.

JWB

13 October 2006

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 19:02

Monotreme’s “Fluwikians don’t panic, we lead.”

14 October 2006

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 06:59

Goju – at 23:08 M. Randolph Kruger says from effect measure blog:

“My opinion? They are expecting high numbers and will not acknowlege it because to do so would cause a panic now. Answers? I havent got many except to say to prepare. No big answers from this end of the fence except to say think of it as ants. Lose the queen and they chose a new one. Lose the workers and they grow a new one. Hit that mother with a can of Raid and then tell me how many make it out.

H5N1 is a can of Raid.”

This is insane… 80% CFR Pandemic? Hell that is with hospital care!

Tom DVM – at 08:52

We had a young new weatherman in our area. He had passed his weather exams with flying colors, but he couldn’t predict the weather right in our area. He said we would have rain but the sun would shine and he said the sun would shine but we’d get rain. The thing was, our area didn’t go by the “rules” of weather and experienced weather forecasters knew that and based their predictions on what had happened in the past when the weather patterns were similar. When the young new weatherman realizied this, he bagan to study the past weather in our area and soon his predictions became more accurate. Now I’m not saying throw out the science books but the nature of nature is based on the past. If it were not, there would be no instinct in animals. We too are animals and even though we have intelligence to figure out the science of things, we also have the instinct to tell us to look at the past. When I look at the past, I don’t see how hard it is for that damn bug to mutate, all I can see is that it DOES and we had better get ready for it.

Reader

18 October 2006

Tom DVM – at 12:11

Non-pharmaceutical interventions and contingency planning should have been started with the public first.

At least we’ve had the time we’ve had, but waiting for ordered magic solutions with promised money isn’t going to get us through a pandemic. (There still is no vaccine against HIV.)

crfullmoon (on Effect Measure)

Average Concerned Mom – at 12:34

anon 58 (my bolds)

I encourage everyone as part of your preps to make calls to local and state governments, schools, colleges, utilities and ask if they are prepared. If not advise them no plan is not an option. Follow up later. Every voice matters now- not later. Be sane - be calm - be vocal. You are an asset - they need your help even if they don’t know it.

19 October 2006

Carrey in VA – at 08:50

Average Concerned Mom

I just wish I could barter with someone. Like, I’ll can some meatballs for you if you’ll hook up a marine battery-inverter-transformer-decoder-ring-photon-torpedo thingy for me. Wish I knew someone around here who wante dthat kind of a trade… (-:

Tom DVM – at 13:55

Cheers to all and to Mother Nature skipping this one past our heads.

Quartzman.

crfullmoon – at 16:37

captain1:

It is getting to the point where my husband asks me every evening “How many were run off with to the hospital with the hot high and breathless today?”

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 23:12

Concerning a ‘signal’ when pandemic occurs:

Milo – at 22:37 I like the alert signal:

$!@& %#^#@!! IT’S STARTED! *(%$#!!! I HONESTLY THOUGHT IT WOULDN’T REALLY HAPPEN BUT IT &$%^@*&$% IS!!!

That just sort of sums it up in my mind.

20 October 2006

Tom DVM – at 11:57

Are you a gambler?

Imagine a virus that infects one in three and kills half it infects.

Are you still a gambler?

uk bird

Tom DVM – at 12:04

I know you were being serious, but I got a laugh out of reading your post because the ratio of sickness to death (1 in 3) meant that 1/2 of a person would die.

Maybe we should increase the ratio numbers so that at least a whole person would die.

I’m Workin’-on-it

Average Concerned Mom – at 15:00

Petticoat Junction

(in response to Bluebonnet’s post of the Texas Medical Center’s Preparedness Response Guide)

The one thing that really jumps out at me is the centralization of communication and standards among different parts of the med center, community health providers, and city/county officials. If they can really pull that off, I think it will go a long way to reducing chaos and, hopefully, some panic (at least the panic that would result from seeing the health grid go down). I think survival chances in your area have gone up.

Tom DVM – at 23:13

So Ottowan is referring to the economic gain to developed countries of money taken out of developing countries. I’m not sure, but that would be things like, if I had money invested in a sneaker company in Indonesia, I might sell the stock at the first sign of trouble, and use the money to buy stock in a country in the developed world.

Which is ridiculous, if I had any stock, I’d sell it right now and buy a woodburning stove.

A lesson in common sense from Average Concerned Mom

21 October 2006

crfullmoon – at 04:27

In my opinion, if you want a recipe for instant anarchy, provide young parents with no medical support of any kind coupled with no antibiotics etc. and by extension no hope. Tom DVM

Average Concerned Mom – at 10:53

lugon:

In this intriguing, chaotic, deeply disturbing field, maybe the difference between someone new to the field and an expert is that the newcomer says “I don’t know”, and the expert says “we don’t know”.

Tom DVM – at 11:04

When the time comes we will all know, until then there is joy in the chase for knowledge, at least I enjoy it even if others may feel dread,but I am not a worrier.

diana

Tom DVM – at 11:11

meanwhile with the stage set but quiet in terms of immediate danger.. the crowd drifts about aimlessly. will it won’t will it won’t it. did I waste money on that solar panel.. am I a dupe for believing in this.. (smiles) does it really matter with a reality check and the “actual” CFR (at the moment)

moeb

Tom DVM – at 12:16

I’m in disbelief that for months I’ve been staring at the swans as soon as the page loads…and it hasn’t actually MEANT anything????

Jody

Bird Guano – at 12:28

Monotreme – at 00:41

The problem for us is that experts who aren’t experts but who are being treated like experts by the media won’t just get themselves killed, they’ll get us killed too.

Tom DVM – at 13:25

I don’t mean to be harsh, but I see a lot of people ignoring reality here. In a severe pandemic, reality will be extremely harsh, and won’t care what the paper says.

Harsh reality is that in the event of even a mild pandemic, you will not have either the beds available or the staff available to provide care to present standards.

Let’s take a hypothetical hospital I know about, Hooville Hospital. It has about 565 beds, and presently averages 81% fill rate for those beds. It has about 700 doctors and 1600 nurses. It’s located in Hoo County, which is around a hundred miles from a very large metro area (5 million people) and about 60 miles from a large metro area (1 million people).

Hoo county has about 90,000 permanent residents, and houses about 25,000 students at HooU, and is the health care service hub for the surrounding counties which have about another 160,000 people in the surrounding area.

Assume that all students are immediately sent home at the start of the pandemic so that the 10,000 beds of student housing are made available for flu patients.

Assuming only a 1918 level pandemic, at the end of week 1, Hooville Hospital will have seen at least 4500 patients. of those, at least 2250 will “require” admission; 450 will require ICU level care with ventilators. Assuming all the current patients are discharged immediately and that less ill patients will be discharged to make room for the more severly ill, there will be room for the 450 critical patients and 115 of the rest. Average stay for these patients is 2–4 weeks.

Assume all deaths occur only in critical patients. Of these critical patients, 225 will die, many quickly, some slowly. Assume half die quickly, and the rest die within 4 weeks; other patients will be admitted as soon as beds are cleansed and cycled.

At the end of week 1, the hospital will have 338 critical patients, 227 less severely ill patients, only 630 doctors left, and only 1440 nurses. It will also have 113 dead bodies to dispose of, and the morgue facility has space for only 24. Local funeral parlors have space for about 25. The local ice skating rink can stockpile as many as 600 bodies, however. The student dorms are now housing around 4000 very ill flu patients.

At the end of week 2, the hospital will have 565 critically ill patients. Some critically ill patients will not be seen at the hospital, all others will not be seen, and the docs will be down to 560, assuming all show up. Nurses will be down to 1300 or less. The dorms will be about full, with 8000 patients. (Who feeds these people or changes the linens?) This assumes that there is no civil disturbance, and that no locals “insist” with use of force, that their relatives be seen, a considerable assumption.

Q- how many nurses are required per day to support one ICU patient? 2? 3?

Q- How many ventilators are required (565)? How many does Hooville Hospital have? 25?

Q- Where are all the bodies going to go?

Q-What about all the people from the outlying counties, the other 160,000 of them? Where do they get medical care? There is another smaller hospital in town with a couple hundred beds, but they’ll be overrun too.

Q- Who takes care of those in the dorms?

Q- What happens if the large cities to the north and east collapse?

So, 2 weeks into the pandemic we see that the health care system in one real hospital, in one real town, is overwhelmed in less than 2 weeks, and in many ways this is much better than can be expected in most locations in the US.

My point is, that if we are to be serious about trying to plan for an emergency, that we have to start with what the reality is now, and the reality is that we have NOWHERE NEAR the capacity required to deal with a pandemic using present protocols.

We have no antivirals. We will have no vaccine. we will have a tiny fraction of the ventilators needed. We will have a small fraction of the professional HCW needed.

Therefore, it is simply absurd to state that we will be able to care for the pandemic victims under these circumstances. Realistic plans for such an event will have to be based on telling people to stay home if they have the flu, on providing expedited burial services, and trying to prevent collateral damage. We will need docs and nurses after the pandemic to treat bacterial pneumonia. Panflu is a viral tidal wave. Killing our HCWs trying to stop it is like trying to stop a tsunami by lying down on the beach.

We WILL need HCW skills to treat those who survive the virus; not only is that a situation where trained HCWs could make a difference, but we will need plasma from the survivors to transfuse the newly ill and save lives. IMO, the only thing to do at the start of a pandemic is to close the hospitals, send everyone home, and tell everyone that they are on their own. alternately, you might set up a screening and triage station outside the facility, or several of them. There you could screen everyone, give them the knowledge they need to care for the sick, admit no-one with the flu, and send them all home.

This location, btw, is Charlottesville Virginia.

LMWatBullRun.

Tom DVM – at 13:28

Every week I see two or three posts that are really exceptional. This one by LMWatBullRun was to good not to put in the quotes thread…however it and the other posts are really a little long for a quote thread…

…maybe someone (Oh Hi Average Concerned Mom /:0)) could start a new thread called ‘the great flu wiki post thread’ where we could collect a few of the best posts on flu wiki.

Thanks.

Tom DVM – at 13:52

Fools may learn from their mistakes. I prefer to learn from the mistakes of others!…Bismark

Thanks LMWatBullRun

crfullmoon – at 13:59

“Many of our JTF-CS committee members believe the single most important message that must be relayed to our senior leaders at the local, state and federal levels is the need to develop a mass fatality/mortuary affair Emergency Support Function (ESF). Presently mass fatality management is listed as one functional element of eighteen under ESF#8 Health and Medical Support and does not adequately address the diverse approach and skill sets required to manage mass fatalities.

Additionally, mass fatality/mortuary operations must move to the forefront of disaster planning rather than continue as a topic no one wants to address for all levels of government.

This (White Paper, Pandemic Influenza Event, pdf) document was prepared for Cremation Association of North America by Michael Nicodemus

22 October 2006

Monotreme – at 22:39

Medical Maven – at 21:15

Being informed and prepared gives you the strength and capability of doing some good. Otherwise, you are “flying blind”, and most people will not attempt that feat. And they will let their wildest fears play out.

NauticalManat 22:53

Dr Dave

SIP is not a guarantee of survival, but failure to SIP is a guarantee of exposure.

23 October 2006

Bird Guano – at 00:07

Fiddlerdave – at 21:12

Just In Time has changed even little stockpiles!

Katrina repairs were like doing a project 200 miles out in the country.

Pandemic infrastucture breakdown repairs will be like doing a project on the moon!

24 October 2006

Tom DVM – at 11:52

This is not rocket science; we have been dealing with infectious diseases for a long time. Do not let your fear rule your planning.

NP1 - Kelly

Tom DVM – at 12:00

In regard to the quote stating that if the virus could not be forced to mutate in a laboratory setting, the concern about a pandemic is probably hype: IMHO, we humans can be very arrogant at times thinking that if we cannot do it, Mother Nature cannot either. I have a feeling that Mother Nature is going to teach us a harsh lesson about respecting what she is capable of doing…..

Sniffles

Tom DVM – at 12:05

I think my main problem is that a “moral leader” doesn’t necessarily have to be a “spiritual leader.”

Scaredy Cat

Closed and Continued - Bronco Bill – at 13:26

Closed for length and continued here

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.GreatFluwikiQuoteThreadII
Page last modified on October 24, 2006, at 02:07 PM
Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / New Rumors VI

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: New Rumors VI

15 October 2006

Monotreme – at 14:10

Part V

Monotreme – at 14:12

Last post from the previous thread:

Anon_451 – at 13:56

AVanarts – at 11:07 DW saw it on CNN. No links available. Sounded off the wall to me too. That was the reason I posted it here instead of news as that would be a significant shift in policy. Have no reason to doubt DW on this as she is well aware of the implications. We have draft eligible Grand Children and do watch what is going on.

16 October 2006

Bluebonnet – at 11:55

Due to heavy flooding in Houston this morning, I did not take my usual mode of transportation to work. Hopefully, I will have something tomorrow. Will let you know.

Scaredy Cat – at 13:08

From Daily Kos, a story about the George W. Bush family buying an enormous farm in Paraguay.

http://tinyurl.com/y34hrc

preppiechick – at 13:13

scaredy cat-

Just came over here to repost that same story, that I posted 2 hours ago on the PPF thread:

what’s your ppf part 1v

Does anyone have any other info to verify this? I think that if you take this into account with all of the military action, mentioned above, my ppf is going waaay past 10!

diana – at 17:15

If you go by the paper scandle sheets the Bush marriage is troubled. Not my business, but he might also be arranging someplace to skedaddle, or it might just be an investment. If the democrats sweep in, there might be a lot of trouble for the man.

Nova – at 17:32

I read somewhere that residents of Paraguay can’t be convicted of international war crimes. Interesting, isn’t it?

diana – at 17:41

Also at a time when water becomes increasingly important, Paraguay has a large aquafer. Water, water everywhere and not a drop to drink.

Milo – at 17:42

Getting into politics here. Let’s stick with bird flu.

Nova – at 17:42

This is the link for my comment at 17:32

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paraguay

Scroll down to the paragaph labeled: US Military Controversy

diana – at 17:42

But there is nothing verifiable.

Okieman – at 17:44

Please stop the Bush bashing rumour mongering. This thread is for rumours, but please, this sooo bogus. All that has been reported on this story is politically motivated. Please move on to rumours with a bit more relevance;-) Thanks.

Nova – at 17:45

Milo: I agree, except if we do find ourselves in the midst of a pandemic it would be most unsettling to think our president might bail on us. Of course isn’t that what happened in New Orleans? I think the message is the one voiced over and over here…we each need to be able to take care of ourselves.

Nova – at 17:47

I’ll shut up now…

Milo – at 17:54

Nova, Sorry, I was thinking more of the war crimes tribunal stuff. That’s not relevant here. The rumor that Bush might have bought a place in Paraguay is curious, and might be interesting if the story gets fleshed out, but that’s that. If Bush or any other of our leaders (senators, governors, Dem or Repub, whatever) want to skip out in the the event of a pandemic, they probably have plenty of sheltered places to do it right here as well.

But the war crimes stuff is going to piss people off. (I’m a democrat, so I’m not one of them, but still.)

OKbirdwatcherat 17:57

Didn’t bother me - I don’t claim either party ;)

preppiechick – at 18:01

Okieman:

Didn’t mean to venture into politics- i voted for him- my comments were directed to the fact that it seemed very suspicious, in light of all the military action, and could it mean that tptb were bugging out, or at least planning to? That’s all that was meant on my part!

The day after tomorrow – at 18:03

Huge −98,482 acre huge.

The day after tomorrow – at 18:13

Bush is an oil tycoon, that’s where he made his money.

Bolivia just north of Paraguay receintly discovered huge natural gas fields.

Scaredy Cat – at 18:42

Okieman - All that has been reported on this story is politically motivated.

That may or may not be true, but either which way, it doesn’t alter the veracity of the story and should not deter us from examining the facts (as best they can be determined).

observer – at 19:04

Ok, you have no facts - you have an news source (do you know anything about the news source? quoting a person - do you know anything about the person?) do you have any idea how much is posted on the internet that is false? and the next thing people are speculating on the Bush’s troubled marriage??? running away from war crimes???? gas fields??? water sources??? all from one unconfirmed and mostly likely completely untrue story - and this is a board about bird flu.

So much for the any credibiliy the CDC may have given this board and the people on it. Take this discussion to another board. If we expect people to take fluwiki and the discussion here seriously and use this as a resource, we have to avoid this absurd kind of rant. The issues on this board are too important and guests on this board deserve better.

preppiechick – at 19:14

‘’ OKbirdwatcher – at 17:57

Didn’t bother me - I don’t claim either party ;) ‘’

Yea, I don’t either, anymore.

observer – at 19:04

Please don’t take this down an avenue that was never intended. While there may be some looking at this from a political angle, I for one am looking at it from the angle that we better watch what tptb are DOING not saying. I am very concerned, with all that is going on, that this may be the only advance knowledge that something is up. I have asked for help in finding a more reliable source, but until that time it is still an important discussion!

preppiechick – at 19:18

(ps that’s why this is the rumors page…this isn’t posted on the news of the day thread.)

KimTat 19:25

preppiechick – at 19:18

Ditto

No comment except this is the rumor thread and we are watching for clues.

Many Cats – at 19:31

OK, folks, that’s 20 posts without one mention of avian influenza-related material. No President from Clinton to Bush is going to bail. They take the job to steer the country to their vision of what America should be whether we agree with their vision or not. This is really irrelevant to avian influenza and is risking losing a good share of the audience. No guns (as per the Pandemic Violence thread) and no politics are how the mods want to run things and I think we should keep with that council.

And now…[++BACK TO BIRD FLU-RELATED RUMORS==] please. Thank you for your understanding and forebearance.

observer – at 19:33

preppiechick – at 19:14

I appreciate that you make an inquiry and I read the article but it seemed pretty vague. Unfortunately, much is put into print that has little to do with reality or fact and multiple confirmations are required to determine the truth. What I objected to was how the discussion took off in all directions with no confirmation or seeming interest in whether it was factual. You will see the Congress head for the hills (not Capitol Hill) long before the White House. The White House is pretty insulated from the public in an emergency. That applies to both parties in case anyone wonders. I will make an effort to try to track down if there is anything to this story but my guess is there is not.

Many Cats – at 19:33

Rats! That’s BACK TO BIRD FLU-RELATED RUMORS!!!

Oremus – at 19:49

What, you don’t want to discuss John Kerry’s war crimes?

observer – at 19:54

Only if they were related to poultry or other animals suffering from breathing problems…

FloridaGirlat 20:16

It is sad, isn’t it?

Reading this particular thread…. is the highlight of my day….

LOL…. (sorry, that is LOL with feathers….)

Nova – at 20:28

Please, whoever was posting regarding unusual plane flyovers, etc. do NOT stop reporting. I’m with the group here that says “believe what they do, not what they say”. If there is a BF outbreak or an American Hiroshima in the air, it affects us all the same. Any outsiders who drop in to visit our site please don’t let this thread turn you off. This is a thread created for us to explore rumors…and like in any other group of people, some of us do wear tin hats. I think the overall theme of this entire site is survival. And, another common theme seems to be a concern whether the government will level with us in time for us to get ready (for whatever).

Ooops. Did I say I would shut up? Sorry. Mea culpa…

libbyalex – at 20:39

ditto to Nova

17 October 2006

Bluebonnet – at 17:03

Just a quick update on the rumor I posted above. My friend has not ridden in to work the last two days due to mucho rain and fog.

Hopefully, I will see her tomorrow and then can confirm/deny the TMC plans.

18 October 2006

Anon_451 – at 12:36

I am posting this here as this is MY OPINION ONLY:

I would like everyone who knows the people, knows the area and has any other knowledge on this to jump in and smack me around and tell me I am wrong.:

I have been watching the numbers of cases of Dengue and Chikungunya in India grow over the past 80 days with increasing concern. HCW’s ill, hospitals getting overloaded and numbers now in the millions.:

The reason for my concern is that while some cases are clearly dengue, others test negative and they do not know what it is. Further they are not testing for H5N1 or any other type of flu:

Many governments have already indicated that this year will see a larger then normal flu season, and the cases in Indonesian, while not growing very fast, continue to pop up:

When I was running my numbers to find the lowest RO that would insure a World wide Pandemic, I found that a daily RO of 0.9275 would be sufficient to accomplish this task (total number of individuals infected by one person would be 2.7825). By Day 80 the number would only be 1,865,501.74, and I find the numbers of dengue/ Chikungunya cases consistent with that number.:

In short, IN MY VERY HUMBLE OPINION, a low path slow burning version may already be in process (just like 1918):

The WHO needs to get teams on the ground in India, and Nepal to rule this out and insure that the world is aware of what is happening and that the time they though they had to prepare is over:

Tom DVM – at 12:47

Anon 451. Think of it like a football game with the other pathogens running ‘biological interference’…if this keeps up we won’t be able to see the forest or the trees.

I know that dengue fever mutated I think in India last year to gain the ability to be transmitted by a new strain of mosquito…I also think I remember them saying it was more virulent as well.

I think, in the background scatter, we should keep in mind that there are bacteria and viruses and fungi and parasites etc. mutating and changing and have been simultaneously for a time in distinct geographical locations around the world…and this fact has an impact on predicting where H5N1 is going and how fast it will get there…in my opinion.

DennisCat 12:51

Anon_451 – at 12:36

I don’t understand your pandemic numbers at an R0 of <1 but: I agree with you that WHO and others need “boots on the ground” in India and Nepal. Now as I understand it (big gap here) WHO has to be “invited in”. At the least, India and Nepal should be sending samples to WHO, CDC or some area labs for testing.

I personally think (humble opinion with no proof at all) that the “pot has been simmering” in Nepal and India for some time with all the pig and other animal deaths and we just are not getting the information from the remote areas. The cases in Nepal with bleeding from mouths sounds too much like Turkey. It is also too coincidental that the current cases at New Deli are right about where the bird flu case in chickens where back in Feb. But I write it off as my paranoia and hope I am wrong.

Medical Maven – at 12:53

Tom DVM at 12:47-Exactly, a viral storm is in progress, and H5N1 isn’t the only thundercloud. But H5N1 could be the Cat 5 tornado buried in the advancing wall cloud.

That’s Just Ducky! – at 12:57

Anon_451 – at 12:36

I have been wondering about this as well, and I suspect many others are too, but are afraid to say anything because there’s always someone to jump down their throat for speculating. I am tired of that. People, don’t be afraid to speak up, speak your mind. Anon_451, I applaud you for speaking your mind.

2beans – at 13:01

The bleeding scares the hell outa me too, but didn’t someone post a while back that the mutated dengue (or was it chik?) had a hemmorhagic form?

INFOMASS – at 13:41

Anon_451 and others today: In the India II thread I unknowingly duplicated your thought. Why can’t the WHO donate some PCR kits and have local doctors test even a sample of the suspicious cases? There are surely people in India who can do that, and there are enough NAMRU, WHO, CDC labs around that we could get a reading on what might be viral background noise or might be something worse. It is hard to understand why nobody is checking on this, if they are not.

cottontop – at 13:43

dengue does. from what I understand , it called hemmorhagic degune fever. for some reason, it reminds me of ebolia.

Tom DVM – at 13:50

INFOMASS. I wouldn’t know for sure but it seems that H5N1 is drifting away from their test reagents…I wouldn’t at this point be sure of the test results if they did come back negative.

OKbirdwatcherat 13:51

DennisC at 12:51

“…the WHO has to be “invited in”

If true, that’s just beyond stupid. These countries and the WHO are playing fast and loose with people’s health and lives.

There are various ways to get tests done as you and INFOMASS both pointed out. Seems as though they don’t want to know.

crfullmoon – at 13:55

Yeah, far as I know, the WHO has no authority to force nations to let them in nor let them have samples.

Tom DVM, “their test reagents” -I’ve been wondering about that, and, just the lack of tests and labs and staff money there must be compared to all the sampling we’d like to see being looked at.

Medical Maven – at 14:00

OKbirdwatcher at 13:51-“Seems as though they don’t want to know”.

Got a sardonic chuckle out of that statement. The more abrupt the onset of the pandemic (even though it has been brewing for some time) the less time for WHO to be a “whipping boy”. They can just hunker down in their bunker (yes, there is a bunker) in Geneva without the lash of recriminations stinging their rearends. WHO will be mercifully shunted to the side, relegated to a historical artifact, while the worldwide emergency and aftermath play out.

Leo7 – at 14:01

TomDVM and all: I was going to mention the problems with the testing as well. I think we’ve lost the ability to test when H5N1 co mingles with other virus. This is not something they will want to publicize, but it’s leaking out.

Second, did you see the story of climbers who witnessed people leaving Nepal and being shot in the mountains by chinese guards a few days ago? The climbers brought the story back with them and the film. It seems an odd time of the year to be trying to trek to join the Dali Lama in Pakistan to me. Made me wonder after the story on the mystery illness if these people are tryig to leave a hell zone and it’s not for political reasons?

Any comments? Annon 451 gutsy thing to write. It makes sense to me that a plague year would have more than one virus trying to win the lotto.

That’s Just Ducky! – at 14:22

Medical Maven – at 14:00

Insightful observation

Dennis in Colorado – at 14:28

Leo7 – at 14:01
I think the Dalai Lama is exiled in India, not Pakistan. And it would make more sense if the Chinese had shot people trying to leave Tibet (into Nepal) since it is Tibet that is under Chinese control.

OKbirdwatcherat 14:31

Anon_451 at 12:36 -

Perhaps The Doctor is seeing the same thing?

That’s Just Ducky! – at 14:35

I googled “Chinese guards Nepal leaving” and the refugees, or pilgrims or whatever they are appear to be traveling from China to Nepal

That’s Just Ducky! – at 14:39

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20061004/india_nm/india270707

…”Hundreds of Tibetans cross the 1,000-km Tibet-Nepal border every year using mountain trails or passes to flee Chinese rule. Most make their way to the north Indian town of Dharmasala, where their spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama, has been in exile since 1959. “…

diana – at 14:39

I would assume the Dalai Lama is not exiled, but a free spirit who is welcome wherever he lays down his head. You can consider a leader exiled, but I somehow doubt that that is how he or his followers feel about the man. He personifies Tibet in their hearts and minds even if the Chinese have taken it over for the present moment. There are Tibetans scattered over the face of the earth. I’ll ask someone who has Tibetan contacts in NYC if they have heard anything.

Leo7 – at 14:44

Got me! Another example of Leo relying on memory only. Still its a rumor thread. So, maybe these Chinese refugees are responsible for the Nepal mystery illness? The story lingered in my mind and engaged because of the mystery illness in Nepal which is why I posted. Thanks Dennis C for correction. No one sees a correlation?

enza – at 15:23

Anon-451 thank you for your post. I have been over on the India thread wondering the same thing for days now, but it’s not sitting well with everyone.

Dennis in Colorado – at 16:17

diana – at 14:39
The 14th Dalai Lama fled to exile in 1959. Exile = anyone separated from his or her country or home voluntarily or by force of circumstances.

Leo7 – at 14:44
I see a potential connection but not very strong at this point. Certainly worth watching.

witness – at 16:31

I like this thread.It’s right up my alley .Any comments on the incubation period of the mystery fever with 800 sick in Banduria.(I posted the article on the India thread.)I think the author is trying to get others to see something they might be afraid to speak out on .(Kinda like what what Enza and That’s Just Ducky are referring to) Maybe if we’re real quite “they” won’t find us over here.

witness – at 16:32

I meant to say quiet.

Fiddlerdave – at 16:38

ANON451 sure has my vote for a likely rumor. Reading about the Indo case where an ultimately H5N1 positive “encephalitis” victim without any repiratory or fever symptoms really pushed my button in relation to epidemics of “new” versions of “Dengue” and “encephalitis” that test negative for the disease they attribute it to. The lack of any official response to the implications of the Indo case is really making my tin hat wobbily.

Northstar – at 16:41

I live very close to a ANG base. Every time things get hot internationally, I’ve usually had a heads-up of about a week because the flyover traffic — the base starts humming like a beehive. (Before the Iraq invasion, fighter jets flew test runs, hard, fast and low, right over our rooftops. We could tell they were practicing under the radar runs. Cool but scary.) Sometimes I’ve seen amazing peices of tax money at work, strange stuff.

I’ve had nothing to report up until now. Just had a flyover by a couple helicopters… but strange ones. Maybe someone with more knowledge can ID. They were flying low, and sounded very loud and powerful, though single rotor. They had a very long spike coming out the front. They also had two projections to each side… I fancied they looked like they were each carrying 2 *large* missiles, but could easily be mistaken.

They were very different from any I’ve ever seen before.

Any ideas?

walrus – at 18:17

Were the helicopters black? The spike is a refueling probe.

diana – at 18:36

Dennis in Colorado. You are correct they refer to themselves as being in Exile. I have a tendency to have flights of fancy, and have romantisized the situation. Our area has had many points of contact with them and I never really delved into the situation. Did so, and am much amazed at how little I knew. (One of the neighbors were the first outsiders into Tibet a long, long time ago, so this is part of the legends I bought into.) Read a debunking article which has changed my mind.

Northstar – at 18:46

walrus, they were very dark but I wouldn’t say black. Dark combat green? Thanks for the answer on the spike. Any idea about the pontoon-like projections? Oh, duh, are they fuel tanks?

Anon_451 – at 18:59

Northstar – at 18:46 Very Possible, sounds like Sea Stallions. Very Big Very Strong can refuel other choppers in the air.

Northstar – at 19:23

I think you win the kewpie doll, Anon-451 — I googled it and on the Naval Defense site that looks like the very one, at least judging from what I saw from underneath. Except the color, they sure weren’t silver.

Bit odd for a landlocked state. But we do have big lakes. ;-) (Michigan)

Anon_451 – at 22:26

OK Now I am a bit concerned and my PPF is now a 2.

This is from the INDO Thread

Pixie – at 19:36

Comment: I was wondering just how much general pneumonia and other respiratory diseases an area in Indonesia typically suffers. It seems that most of the H5N1 patients are brought first to a community clinic, and only if their case proves very stubborn and life threatening are they referred to a larger hospital. From East Java:

“‘Thousands of citizens were in Malang attacked by pneumonia’”

MediaIndonesia / Minggu, 15 Oktober 2006 / http://tinyurl.com/am6wk

Malang — MIOL: “‘e Health Service of the Government of the Regency (the Regional Government) Malang, East Java stated at this time thousands of citizens were attacked by the pneumonia illness.’”s illness sufferer was dominated by under age children five years. The “minor pneumonia illness and was handled the community health centre, but difficult pneumonia was handled the hospital, the” headword” of the Illness and Regional Government Sanitation of the Environment of the Health Service of the Eradication Field. It was unfortunate, East Java, Dr Mulyatim Koeswo, m.Cash to the Indonesian Media, on Sunday (15/10).

<snip> As far as this is concerned did not yet have the sufferer who died. “All could have been handled,” he stressed.

<snip>

Olymom – at 22:38

We’ve had both of our kids have a bout with pneumonia. Both times we were seen at a regular clinic, given some meds and told to go home, give lots of fluids and rest and take all the meds. So minor pneumonias are treated the exact same way here (US)

periscopic – at 23:49

Leo-7 at 14:01 Second, did you see the story of climbers who witnessed people leaving Nepal and being shot in the mountains by chinese guards a few days ago? The climbers brought the story back with them and the film.

Wasn’t something like this happening at Q-Lake, people being shot. Not to bring up an old subject, but I just can not seems to totally accept that the dogs in China were being killed because of rabies. Have you ever experienced the disposition of a dog with encephalitis?…I know they were not wearing masks but in China if you are told to kill all of the dogs, do you stop and demand a mask. It has now been established that dogs can be infected with H5N1. My gut tells me to also to be aware of what it happening with dogs as well as pigs and other mammels.

India and Nepal have me very concerned.

As for the helicopters, I am in the badger state and I also experienced the helicopter phenom this evening when leaving work at approx. 7:30 pm very loud and alot of hovering, the Air National Guard Fighter Squad fly in and out of the airport adjacent to my work. Something is up, I have tried to scope things out but no one is giving out specifics. Our environmental specialist at work offers little or no information and he/she just recently attended a Pan Preparedness Seminar.

It is nice to know that others out there at time are hesitant to post.

19 October 2006

Monotreme – at 00:49

Anon_451 – at 12:36

Still not enough information to know whether a pandemic has started, IMO. Certainly there is something bad going on in India, but I’m not sure that it’s H5N1. Some of the reports I read said that they had tested for dengue. If they really have, then that’s probably what it is. OTOH, it’s possible that they only tested a few and assumed that the others had it too. IMO, if it’s H5N1, there will be huge spike in deaths within one week. And it will include many health care workers.

A flu A test can be done within a few hours and is cheap and easy to perform. It wouldn’t distinguish between H5N1 and H3N2, but if all the people dying have Flu A, then I think testing for H5N1 would be warranted.

I certainly agree that watching India and Nepal closely is a good idea.

Hurricane Alley RN – at 00:51

Hi everybody!

Could Indonesia be the watched pot that never boils? Meanwhile, it’s strongly simmering elsewhere.

Tom DVM - Would you please get out of my head. It’s frightening enough for me. Although, it is a comfort to know I’m not alone in my thoughts. I honestly believe h5n1 has mutated beyond the current tests abilities. I also believe TPTB have us right where they want us. Aware,but also ignorant. Afterall, we can only have the information the rest of the world is being fed. That for me is not enough, but I will have to learn to live with it. We don’t have the power to make them give us the information. Thanks for the other info. I requested. gina

Anon_451 – at 00:54

Monotreme – at 00:49 Thank you and Tom for your input. So I am just a normal peanut nothing special. Oh well

Monotreme – at 00:55

Anon_451 – at 00:54

I’m not saying you’re wrong, just that I’m not sure you’re right. If the body count goes way up, I will adjust my assessment, pronto.

enza – at 01:05

And the people presenting symptoms and dying who are testing -ve for dengue?…

AnnieBat 01:11

Commentary about WHO in India above - they are in there and they are updating the local WHO site about outbreaks of Chik but nothing new about Dengue. There is a discussion about epidemic patterns of Dengue and that one is overdue by about 12 years. Here is a link to the site - trawl around to check http://www.searo.who.int/

Leo7 – at 03:13

Regarding the pneumonia cases of children. It could be RSV which is often misdiagnosed as mild pneumonia or influenza. It hits kids hard. We can’t expect every viral outbreak to be H5N1. India is worrisome because it’s experiencing a viral soup, I’m not sure about H5N1 being mixed in, yet. I’ll keep watching it too, more eyes, more coverage.

anonymous – at 03:28

Regarding Nepal and relationship to Asia: it’s estimated that every household relies on wages from at least one family member working outside of Nepal. Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, etc.

From Nepal’s Dependence on Exporting Labor, January 2005

In the last decade, foreign labor migration has become a major feature of Nepal’s economy and society. Approximately 700,000 Nepalis work “overseas,” meaning beyond India, mainly in the Middle East, East Asia, and Southeast Asia. At least another 950,000 in India.

According to research in 2002 by the Nepal Institute for Development Studies for the women’s fund at the United Nations (UNIFEM), approximately 170,000 or more Nepalis were in East and Southeast Asia, with nearly 36,000 in Europe and over 10,000 in North America…over 465,000 Nepalis work in countries such as Saudi Arabia and Bahrain.

The Southeast Asia Connection - In 1997 it was estimated that over 40 percent of all Nepalis living and working overseas were in Hong Kong, Singapore, and Brunei — most of them in Hong Kong.

In February 2001, the Malaysian government officially “opened” its labor market to Nepali workers. Within six months, over 12,000 labor migrants had left for Malaysia, and a year later Malaysia was hosting some 85,000 Nepali migrant workers.

http://www.migrationinformation.org/Profiles/display.cfm?id=277

Average Concerned Mom – at 09:37

i’m posting this on rumors because I don’t have links and am not positive I recall correctly but someone might help me out.

Was it last month, Walmart announced a plan to provide many prescription drugs for $4 a month regardless of whether you had insurace? They were to start the program in October in Florida and if it was a success, expand it by the end of 2007. (As I recall). My husband thought it had to do with all the retirees in Florida, etc. I just thought it sounded interesting from a pandemic perspective — a way to allow people to afford a 3 month supply of prescriptions. $12 for 3 months! Around the same time I read an interesting article about the FDA suddenly allowing people to import a 3 month supply of prescription drugs from Canada. The quote I vividly recall was a spokesperson saying “We used to intercept the drugs and destroy them. We won’t do that anymore.” and also something about “We still think it is not a great idea to import drugs from Canada — but there are other considerations here and other people weighing int othe decision.” Or something vague like that.

Anyhow, today I hear on the news that Walmart is expanding its prescription drug program to 14 more states. I am almost positive this is way ahead of schedule, and Ijust have my radar up as Walmart seems to be popping up as very well informed about PF.

Any comments? Or is this all more of the “Every little piece of news doesn’t have to be about bird flu?”

AVanartsat 10:02

I don’t know if it ahead of schedule, but the WalMart starts the $4 generic drug program in Oregon today. It started in one specific market in Florida and is expanding, I believe, to eventually cover the country if successful.

The program only involves generic prescription drugs.

AVanartsat 10:03

BTW, I’m sure the WalMart web site would have more info.

kc_quiet – at 10:13

Could be competition from other drug stores mergers.

Average Concerned Mom – at 10:14

I just checked and it is definitely ahead of schedule. For what it is worth. I can’t find it, but I definitely rememeber a much slower schedule. Tampa Bay for a month or two, the rest of Florida early next year, and hopefully more states by the end of 2007. Maybe they just found it was really good for nusiness. I’m just saying… also good for people on prescription meds who need the meds but can’t afford to stockpile.

http://www.usnews.com/usnews/health/articles/060922/22walmart.htm

Wal-Mart rolls out $4 prescription drugs By Michelle Andrews

Posted 9/22/06

Attention, Wal-Mart shoppers: Buying prescription drugs is about to get cheaper in Tampa. Under a new program, Wal-Mart customers in that area will be able to buy nearly 300 generic drugs for just $4 for a 30-day supply. Wal-Mart said it plans to offer the deal to all Floridians and in other states next year.

Patients will pay the low rate for typical dosages of many common medications, including the antibiotic amoxicillin, the asthma drug albuterol, metformin, which is taken by many diabetics, and fluoxetine, the generic version of the antidepressant Prozac. Savings will vary depending on the medication. Thirty 20-milligram tablets of fluoxetine cost $15.99 at drugstore.com, for example, while a 30-day supply of amoxicillin costs $7.99

Dennis in Colorado – at 10:20

Average Concerned Mom – at 09:37 and others:
Wal-Mart to sell $4 generic drugs in 14 more states
CHICAGO (Reuters) - Wal-Mart Stores Inc. on Thursday said it would begin selling $4 generic prescriptions in 14 additional states, including New York and Texas, speeding up the roll-out of a plan that has put pressure on rival retailers.
Wal-Mart said the $4 program covers a 30-day supply of 143 different drug compounds, representing nearly 25 percent of the prescriptions it currently dispenses in pharmacies nationwide.
The program, initially launched in Florida last month, will be available in an additional 1,264 stores throughout Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Oregon, Texas and Vermont.

Dennis in Colorado – at 10:23

Curious that usnews.com refers to “nearly 300 generic drugs” and Reuters specificaly states 143.

cottontop – at 10:23

our wal-mart has had that for about a couple of weeks now. (upstate n.y.)

anonymous – at 16:14

I saw one news brief which stated 300 and 143. I gather it might be that it is different dosage amounts of the 143 which add up to 300. Doesn’t make too much sense, but 143 drugs at $4 each will help out. It is about time that someone did something. Americans pay the most for any drug. I’m taking one pill that I take one time a month and runs me about $80 a pill. I think the costs are prohibitive. Since my consumption of prescription items is pretty low otherwise I wince and pay up. Am going to investigate prescription plans which I have avoided until now.

Leo7 – at 16:19

MSM says Target to join Walmart! How are they making a profit? Who cares! This is so good news for the elderly. I’ve seen prescriptions bills for an older couple that was hitting a thousand dollars a month. Each had a chronic disease with high BP, High cholesterol etc. Anything that reduces that bill can only be good news. We’ll be paying less just like the Canadians!!!!!!!!!

heddiecalifornia – at 16:54

I wonder who is making the generic drugs? I understand that most US drug manufacturing has moved offshore, or to areas like Puerto Rico.

  Also, there is a great deal of medical ability in India, Singapore, and I understand that some of the drug manufacturing facilities are top notch.  
  About time we had some benefits from ‘globalization’ 
Bird Guano – at 17:00

Most of the generic antibiotics and a lot of the BP meds are made offshore in India.

cottontop – at 17:27

Oh that’s nice to know!

23 October 2006

preppiechick – at 12:29

Ok, not to rehash a dead dog, but here is another link,this one from the guardian paper, a tad more mainstream, about the land purchase in paraguay. There may be nothing to it, but they do mention 400 troops being there, It just seems to me that this is something to watch…I understand the arguement that a pandemic will hit everywhere, but wouldn’t the flu season be at a different time in the southern hemiphere, and regardless, on 100k acres, you could sip pretty well! Just something to watch on the rumor page.

[[http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,,1928928,00.html| Paraguay in a spin about Bush’s alleged 100,000 acre hideaway]]

One other thing that seemed strange. was this comment on a site I read:

‘’Drop those Flowers

Security-mindedness is one thing, but we were shocked when a reader sent us this:

    “Hi George,

    I recently looked at an application for a Master Gardener program from UC Extension. Applicants must agree to be “fingerprinted and pass a US Department of Justice screening process”.

    This? For a *gardening class*? What do they fear? That we will steal worms?”

You got me…’‘

I know I leave on my tinfoil hat too much, but my first thought(and my dh,also) was that maybe tptb were gathering some kind of list to help in reconstuction. Why else would all the documentation be required to volunteer? These people aren’t involved in the national food chain or any other kind of nat sec issue, and they certainly don’t require this stringent of a background check of the laborers actually involved in our food processing. Just thought that any unusual movements will possibly give us a heads up on timing (nothing more intended).

diana – at 13:37

There are four kinds of dengue. Get one and you can still get the other three later on. The CDC has an excellent run down on dengue. Those of you in southern states should check it out. Just google up Dengue and get the CDC site. They also list exactly which counties have been found to harbor the mosquito vector. I’m sure I have some in my backyard. It seemed to me the mosquitos that bit me this summer were a more agressive bunch even though I keep “Off” on my front steps if I want to sit and read. I’ll be spraying more and looking at the bugs next summer.

24 October 2006

Bluebonnet – at 09:23

From another site I read:

-Alot of internal debate going on in localized areas. One half wants to inform the public the other half wants to wait until BF hits. Then just shack them up in shelters. Plans are in place for PSA’s and other ways of communication to teach people how to deal with a deceased person at home. May be several days before they can be picked up in larger areas. Told us once imbalmed, they dont have to be refridgerated. They can be stored anywhere and then make a mass burial. Any funerals will be after the flu has passed. You may have a loved one pass away and not be able to have a service for 2 months afterwards. Chances are not body for the service when you do because it will have been buried in a mass burial. Funerals will not be allowed. It was discussed today that now instead of being the 3rd step, social distancing may become the first step. So when a state has its first sign of human to human transmission, if that is, social distancing will go into effect.

Strangely enough while the talk of this stuff, a state PHO said that they been trying to mutate the disease and forcing it to mutate. The disease, this strain anyway, keeps dieing and they cant make it mutate with current human virus. This strain that everyone is worried about, they cant make it do it. Said he/she was a dead set believer in this coming and now they are not too sure. Quote, “I am not too sure anymore, I still have to be prepared and cautious, but I really am believing this disease is nothing more than hype. They cant force it to make the jump even under the most perfect biological settings in the lab.”

=There is alot of bickering going on at different agencies. The feeling I got is that there is a part of them that want the hype to continue and another that wants it toned down. Alot more people has resigned or been reassigned.

-POD’s are going to the major metropolitian areas first and already packed and ready to go. Others are being packed 24/7 as we speak.

-Said to start expecting to see alot more National Guard convoys in the next 6 weeks do to activation and movement. Said they are being moved about to be in place for the more vulnerable areas. Noone asked anything beyond that.

InKyat 09:28

Bluebonnet - Will you point us to your source(s) for this information?

tjclaw1 – at 10:35

Bluebonnet – at 09:23

 What’s a POD?
JWB – at 11:06

Blue Bonnet or others, please define the following:

PSA’s

PHO

POD’s

Bronco Bill – at 11:10

PSA = Public Service Announcement

PHO = Public Health Official

POD = large containers full of equipment/food/necessary items (I think)

2beans – at 11:11

tjclaw1 - at 10:35

POD = Points Of Distribution. This is a FEMA term of logistics of movement of supplies. There may be many PODs in each state and the contents of units sent to PODs will vary with the situation being addressed. Units sent thru PODs may contain fuel, food, or medical supplies - whatever is needed on site due to critical shortages locally.

JV – at 11:18

Perhaps “POD” means “Portable On Demand Storage”

http://www.pods.com/

crfullmoon – at 11:21

Bluebonnet how (the heck) do they think all the bodies are going to be embalmed? Not ready -probably anywhere- locally currently. (Anything in print for the Mass Fatality Management Plans thread?)

(Public is not going to like bodies in limbo somewhere, waiting for mass burial. Don’t let work pile up.)

JWB – at 11:21

Thanks all.

crfullmoon – at 11:23

JWB, also, DOH! is Department of Health Official! ;-)

Medical Maven – at 11:31

Concerning body disposal-If the worst comes to pass, TPTB may have to research Nazi archives. I remember reading grisly accounts of the Holocaust in which the Nazis had difficulty burning bodies at first and had to do a great bit of experimentation until they finally became efficient at it.

crfullmoon – at 11:34

Proper planning prevents piling prior persons.

crfullmoon – at 11:35

oops; Proper Preparation prevents piling prior persons

Sniffles – at 11:46

crfullmoon – at 11:21 Bluebonnet how (the heck) do they think all the bodies are going to be embalmed? Not ready -probably anywhere- locally currently.

As far as the burial quote goes, I have mentioned before that funeral home directors probably have not been involved at all with pandemic planning (at least not in my state) and will not have enough embalming fluid on hand for that many bodies, staff, or storage space for the bodies. It is a nice thought, but will not work.

In regard to the quote stating that if the virus could not be forced to mutate in a laboratory setting, the concern about a pandemic is probably hype: IMHO, we humans can be very arrogant at times thinking that if we cannot do it, Mother Nature cannot either. I have a feeling that Mother Nature is going to teach us a harsh lesson about respecting what she is capable of doing…..

Tom DVM – at 11:59

“I have a feeling that Mother Nature is going to teach us a harsh lesson about respecting what she is capable of doing…..”

Sniffles. Exactly. Nature can be astonishingly beautiful and a terrorist with astonishing ruthlessness when it wants to be: We are the pretenders.

Bluebonnet – at 12:08

Again, this is from terminusreality. Take it for what it’s worth.

The discussion about bodies totally chilled me! I can’t imagine mass burials and embalmed bodies being stacked like cordwood. I agree that funeral directors probably have not been involved in the planning. There was also a bit of discussion after this post that you might not even be buried in your own cemetary plot. Brrr - Gives me the creeps!

I fully believe that there is a difference of opinion in TPTB regarding whether to get the info out or not. Don’t have anything to back that up - just a belief based on past disasters.

Sniffles - It’s not nice to fool Mother Nature. I think she is going to teach us allllll a hard lesson.

What bothers me most about the post is the talk of trying to “force a mutation.” I’m still searching to see if I can come up with any evidence to support this work. I assume it is vaccine work?

That’s Just Ducky! – at 12:17

Bluebonnet – at 12:08

You should read The Great Influenza by John Barry. In 1918–1919 they did stack the bodies like cordwood (without the embalming, though) and they did have mass graves. They were barely able to keep up with recording all the dead. There were just way too many bodies to do anything else.

I am sure the same thing will happen in the next pandemic if it’s as severe as the Spanish Flu pandemic.

diana – at 12:21

Personaly I don’t care a hoot what happens to my body after death. Yet most people do. Look at the ruckus 5 years after the fact over some bones at the WTC. As far as I am concerned my body is merely a shell that allows me to feel and to function as a human. To me what counts is the spirit inside that shell that makes us what we are. Let your family know how you feel and if possible they will go by your wishes. If it goes pandemic, no one will be able to follow your wishes, they will have be concerned with contageon, and noone to bury you in a burial plot. There was a long, long thread way back that covered all aspects of death and the disposal of remains.

2beans – at 12:22

Bluebonnet, etal.

If you google “Fema pods” (without quotes) you can access some fema powerpoint presentations detailing distribution plans and organizations. You can discover what region you’re in and where your primary military base is. Sorry folks, still don’t know how to make a link.

debtrag – at 12:28

Just a heads up here in Indiana and possibly in other states as well. Meijer stores are offering certain antibiotic prescriptions for FREE. Hope this helps someone.

Green Mom – at 12:34

crfullmoon – at 11:21

Bluebonnet how (the heck) do they think all the bodies are going to be embalmed?

Did y’all not see those DIY embalming kits on Amazon?:-o

That’s Just Ducky! – at 12:57

http://tinyurl.com/ylkmp7 “ Points of Distribution (PODs) Sites - temporary local facilities at which commodities are distributed directly to disaster victims. PODs are operated by the affected state. “

2beans – at 12:22 URL: http://tinyurl.com/yjly9d

Closed and Continued - Bronco Bill – at 13:21

Closed for length and continued here

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Sign At Lake

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Sign At Lake

28 September 2006

Desert Penguin – at 23:22

WARNING Do Not Feed The Waterfowl Feeding the waterfowl leads to increased exposure to Salmonella and Avian (Bird) Flu. (Skull and Crossbones)

These signs were posted all around our residential lakes in our subdivision in a suburb of Phoenix, AZ. Thought it was noteworthy because some of the geese and ducks were crated up by the city a couple of months ago, I witnessed this. Then a couple of weeks ago some geese that were regulars (year rounders) disappeared. I don’t know if they were picked up or not. I’ll call the city and our HOA and find out more tomorrow. Anyone else seeing signs like this?

Made my PPF go up a couple of notches!

29 September 2006

mj – at 01:02

I’ve not seen signs like yours but did just see my first Pandemic Billboard. As I was leaving work in Kokomo, I drove north on S Lafountain by Wendy’s (near the Regional Hospital). And there was a big as life billboard with just one question on it. “If there were an emergency, does your family have a plan?” And then it had “Ready.gov” !! Finally. I can’t decide whether to be happy they are finally getting to the general public, or worried that they think it’s time to. Any billboards where you are driving? I’m wondering if there are other varieties. I posted this on the Indiana thread too. Now maybe people will think “maybe she’s not so crazy after all, and perhaps I should listen to her.” Wonder what other signs we’ll be seeing around our towns?

Ruth – at 08:03

I haven’t seen a sign like that and I feed the ducks all the time at the lake near our home. When the geese come, I leave, mostly because they are a bit scary. I watch them every day to make sure they are alive and well. Question: Will the Canadian geese in the midwest die from avaian flu or will they be carriers? I thought they would die off quickly.

Jane – at 11:39

Our Chicago WGN (which is also on some cable networks) had a brief story on the nightly news program (in last night’s Health segment) about how bird flu is mutating to make it more likely to infect humans, and that it’s resistant to antivirals, and there’s no vaccine. End of story and on to the next.

Hillbilly Bill – at 12:35

mj – at 01:02

The first billboard I saw nearly made me run off the road. It said:

PANDEMIC FLU Are You Ready?

At the bottom was a phone number for the County Health Dept. and the website pandemicflu.gov site.

Later I saw another that was less specific, but also made mention of Pandemic Flu. I am heartened that money is being spent to raise awareness, but deeply concerned by what that means.

Poppy – at 16:05

The cynic in me says this our government doing everythng it can to tell even the dumbest idiot out there to prepare so the when TSHTF and people are begging the government to take care of them they can say, “We told you to prepare for this pandemic because we knew it was coming. We put it on a big bilboard on route…., on the evening news, the internet, and in every newspaper we could get to print it. Sorry but no we couldn’t get enough Tamiflu for everyone in the country”

They are screaming at the ostriches to get their heads out of the sand.

30 September 2006

Desert Penguin – at 09:58

Update: I talked with the HOA and it turns out that they are working with the Arizona Game and Fish Department. They (AGFD) did crate up the ducks and geese and put up the signs. I’m looking forward to talking with the AGFD on Monday to see what info they have.

When I talked with the city, they were not ready. It seems they are in the talking about it stage and have no timeline for when any plan could get done. I was told that the city will pretty much shut down and that citizens will have to rely on themselves. It is not the city’s job to take care of people. I understand that, I just with they would at least inform Steve and Suzie Suburbanite to prepare. Their chief concern is how to make people stay on the job and deciding who has to stay on the job.

Poppy – at 22:35

Desert Penguin - Their response would sure make my PPF go up! The city may not be responsible for taking care of people but they should at least keep their citizens informed. At least you are already prepping.

01 October 2006

anonymous – at 08:37

Desert Penguin - I find this very disturbing. What did they do with the crated up birds? The City’s response is even more disturbing. I’d remind them that you pay their salary, that they work for you, and that it IS their job to take care of their citizens. I think I’d be attending the next city council meeting with as many of my neighbors and fellow citizens and addressing the issue. I’d make sure the media knew I was planning to address the issue too.

tjclaw1 – at 08:38

oops, that was me. My computer dumped my cookies again. Ugh.

04 October 2006

Cygnet – at 11:05

For what it’s worth, Arizona Game and Fish, in my experience, tends to be a fairly ‘on the ball’ beaurocracy. They’re probably just AWARE of the possibility of H5N1 and putting up signs to be proactive. Arizona has a very good track record of disease management in wildlife.

That, and ducks and geese+suburban lakes=big mess. Geese are aggressive and both ducks and geese are messy and cause problems with the water quality. A few scary signs just might keep people from feeding the birds … which are very likely to be released pets or the descendents of them and not wild ones, even if they have ‘wild type’ markings.

Salmonella IS a possibility.

The birds were probably euthanized. I’ve never asked exactly what they do with the carcasses — this probably depends on how likely they think disease actually is and the specific regulations at play.

05 October 2006

Desert Penguin – at 19:13

Finally, I got somewhere with my calls. AZGF did not put up the signs and they did not take waterfowl. Furthermore, according to the gentleman, the Bush Admin has given such a large amount of money that extensive testing has been done and there is no Avian Flu in North America. He also does not think it will get here this year. As far as a Pandemic Flu goes I got the standard only around 150 people have died from the Bird Flu as compared to the 30000 that die from the regular flu and x amount die in car accidents etc. He did not think there would be a Pandemic because the people in Asia are more intimate with their birds than we are in North America.

I don’t know much more than when I started this, except that my City is woefully unprepared.

Cygnet – at 21:11

Desert Penguin — I’m not sure who you spoke to, but I’m pretty sure that AZGF DOES cull feral domestic waterfowl. I suspect you got a clueless peon. Try again?

Like I said, AZGF is usually pretty ‘on the ball’ — though their receptionist may not be. I can tell you first hand that the higher placed people ARE aware of avian flu in AZGF. Also, there’s a federally funded state program that pays for avian flu testing in sick poultry/waterfowl. I’ve had to submit samples from my own flock when I had sick birds. (Turned out to be bad feed and not AI.)

As far as Phoenix — heh. Let’s just say I’m planning on riding this sucker out a couple hundred miles away.

Desert Penguin – at 22:34

Cygnet-That is why it took so long to get the info. I finally got to talk to THE guy. Not customer service, not a receptionist. He knew his stuff. In fact he called me back and reconfirmed that no other department had culled in our area. I’m leaning towards believing my HOA is clueless and doesn’t know what is going on. He suggested that they might have hired a company to do it.

I’m working to get my family out of Phoenix, let’s just say for now, I have distance envy. ;)

Ranchgirl – at 23:13

Hillbilly Bill – at 12:35 Can you get a good photo of that billboard? That would make a great intro to a brochure I’m finalizing for our Red Cross pandemic awareness seminars!!!

06 October 2006

Hillbilly Bill – at 08:36

Ranchgirl – at 23:13

I will try, it is on a busy access road to a big mall and there is not a place to pull of near it. I’ll see what I can do with a zoom lens.

mj – at 09:56

Hillbilly Bill – at 08:36

Would you tell us what city? If I’m passing thru on my travels I’d look for it. Make my son drive, so I could marvel and not drive off the road.

Hillbilly Bill – at 10:06

Morgantown WV. It is on the access road to the Morgantown Mall adjacent to the I-79 interchange at Westover. If you have Google Earth, search on Morgantown Mall, Morgantown, WV.

18 October 2006

crfullmoon – at 09:06

hey -I looked on flickr and saw some pretty photos of Morgantown, (and, some interesting protest signs), but, I haven’t found the one you describe. If some local on flickr does upload a photo of it, it can go in the flickr avian flu watch group photo pool

22 October 2006

mj – at 15:42

Well folks, I live in Indiana, and this place is not high on prepping. I was so excited on the 29th of Sept when I saw my town’s billboard. Last night I saw that it was gone. Up less thatn three weeks. Don’t worry, be happy. I’m not worried - I’m prepped (and getting more prepped as each week goes by) and I’m happy - same reason - I’m prepped. But the citizens … and their government…

24 October 2006

Cinda – at 09:44

In Sept while I was in VA, near Virgina beach, I saw a Red Cross BillBoard that said something like “ prepare for the unthinkable” At least it’s a start……..

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Flu Wiki 2 | Forum / Spam in Create New Topic

From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Spam in Create New Topic

23 October 2006

deborah – at 16:15

I am not sure why these posts keep appearing, but I have seen them a lot lately. Is this a spammer or just advertising that is approved?

pogge – at 16:27

There isn’t any advertising that’s approved on this site. It’s just spam. That file name has obviously found its way into a spammer’s script so the thread just keeps getting hit. We clean it out a few times a day.

24 October 2006

crfullmoon – at 10:38

Really don’t need that on the site; any way to just take it out?

Seems to be getting more annoying.

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23 October 2006

AnnieBat 23:46

Hi folks. As per the thread Volunteers Needed as Lookouts Worldwide I am starting this Lookout Post for us (region #20).

The countries included in this region are Australia, New Zealand, Timor Leste, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, Nauru and all the other island groups along these chains. (Although Fiji is usually included here, it has been put in the Pacific Islands region.)

I need a few helpers to monitor local newspapers and keep this thread up to date on news pertinent to wikians (it is not intended to replace any existing discussion threads for the region). We should be looking out for bird flu reports plus any other mysterious illnesses or relevant events.

I will create a summary of what I know for the region later today and post it here, in the meantime, please volunteer to help. Cheers and thanks.

AnnieBat 23:51

Sincere apologies - should read Mel a’ nesia

24 October 2006

Blue – at 03:53
 Australia currently has no sign of Bird Flu.

 http://www.abc.net.au/rural/news/content/2006/s1771212.htm

 Here is some general information on symptoms in birds; what is generally looked out for in regards to quarantine for passengers coming into Australia and basically a link to Australia’s Quarantine and Inspection Service AQIS- because, “Quarantine Matters”.

 http://www.daff.gov.au/birdflu#signs ! Aussie Agricultural department website 

 http://www.daff.gov.au/content/output.cfm?ObjectID=7FEB8597-350F-4E1B-B993449696AB53A3                      ! AQIS Quarantine Matters

 http://www.daff.gov.au/content/output.cfm?ObjectID=9C65D9C1-11F9-42A0-AACF45C5A1A7EBEB                      ! Bird Flu- bit more.
pogge – at 08:33

Bumping renamed thread.

Okieman – at 21:50

Please see my October 12 post on the Papua New Guinea thread. The link is down below. I will see if I can identify if there is a geographical relationship to the places named in the two articles.

AN outbreak of influenza and whooping cough is spreading through Nawae district, Morobe province, leaving scores of afflicted children in its wake, according to reports reaching Lae.

Health workers in the district yesterday reported the outbreak was putting intense pressure on the Bukawa aid post, the only health facility in the stricken area. Community health workers Linson Agi and his wife, Christine, who are based there, said six villages with a population of about 12,000 people are being threatened by the outbreak.

“The problem was now getting worse so the two of us, the aid post committee, our church leader and the councillors of ward 7 and 8 are calling for urgent help from the relevant health authorities,” Mr Agi said in a letter to The National. The villages affected are Bukawa, Awadec, Mundala, Bocgapung, Ukilum and Yambo. Mr Agi said the aid post was treating six cases every day and this rate was certain to rise.

“Before it gets worse, we request full medical supplies for the Bukawa Aid Post. This is the first time we have experienced such an outbreak,” Mr Agi said. He wrote that urgent assistance was needed to reign in the outbreak. Provincial programme advisor for Health Dr Likei Theo said his office had not received any reports of the outbreak.

“When we do, we will dispatch a medical team into the area to investigate. “I am going to check this out,” Dr Theo said when the National informed him of the letter from the community health workers in the area.

Early this year, the same area suffered an outbreak of measles, prompting a health team to visit the area and bring the situation under control.

http://tinyurl.com/yhjdug


The Papua New Guinea thread has moved to this thread. The previous one is Here

Okieman – at 21:56

The article I posted above was written by Peter Korugl. When I copied it his name did not get included. Credit should go where credit is due.

Okieman – at 22:49

At least two of the villages mentioned in the article I posted above are just to the east of the city of Lae. (I could not locate the others.) This is around 100 miles (more or less) from the outbreak mentioned in my October 12 article on the Papua New Guinea thread. There is a highway leading from the Eastern Highland area mentioned in the October 12 article to the Lae area.

There is a 12 day span from the first article mentioned until today. This fits the incubation/transmission time that might be expected. I just hope this is not the H5N1 monster coming down out of the highlands into the more populated coastal areas. Again, only time will tell. If we have any Aussie or Kiwi Fluwikians with contacts in Papua New Guinea, this might be the time to contact them and see if they can find out anything.

My apologies if I am making a mountain out of a mole hill, but I have had a bad hunch about Papua New Guinea for months. Hopefully I am wrong.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 22:54

Glad you’re doing this.

Tom DVM – at 23:27

Okieman. ‘Courage of conviction’ combined with ‘dogged determination’…Thanks!!!!

gardner – at 23:30

Okieman – at 22:49. My apologies if I am making a mountain out of a mole hill.

A few years ago visiting relatives in Texas I kicked a “mole hill” that turned out to be a nest of fire ants. My cousin screamed for me to get away quickly enough that I got away mostly unharmed. You got to keep an eye on those mole hills. They may not be what they seem to be.

25 October 2006

AnnieBat 04:08

Okieman (or others)

Here is a really good map of Papua New Guinea which you can zoom in and out etc. I have found Okapa and you can zoom in closer for lots of smaller community names. I hope it helps …

http://encarta.msn.com/map_701515531/Papua_New_Guinea.html

Okieman – at 22:12

Bump

(I checked the two PNG newspapers earlier and there was no mention of the “Flu and Whooping Cough” in the Morobe Province/Lae area. If this is something significant, as in the H5N1 variety, it will be in the news again sometime in the next few days.)

29 October 2006

AnnieBat 18:36

I cannot find any update to the story in PNG and I have had a look around the other media sources and all is quiet elsewhere in the region.

Okieman – at 20:43

On a matter of watch what they do and not what they say, there is an article in the PNG newspaper The Post Courier that describes a 400 person ferry bound for Port Moresby not being fueled and delayed over a portion of the weekend near Lae. The link is below. I have debated with myself about posting it because it may be absolutely nothing. Read the article closely yourself and see. My point for posting it is that if something is beginning they would want to delay the arrival of this many people in Port Moresby, the capial of PNG.

On the other newspaper in PNG there is an article with a title mentioning a pastor collapsing and dying, but then the link does not work. It works for every other article on the page, but not that one. Could it be an article concerning a flu like illness? I don’t know. Again, all of this may be absolutely nothing. I may be just jumping at shadows. I guess time will tell.

Here is the link:

http://www.postcourier.com.pg/20061030/mohome.htm

Influentia2 – at 21:44

Okieman I cannot find the story about the preacher. Is it supposed to be in the National? I was going to see if I could open it for you.

Thanks

Okieman – at 22:56

Influentia2 – at 21:44

Yes, it’s in the National. I will go try again.

Influentia2 – at 22:59

Thanks I cannot find a title like you described on the Indo thread in the National.

Okieman – at 23:01

It’s there, but still won’t open. Below is the link. It likely has nothing to do with the outbreak of “whatever” that is occuring near Lae. I’m just a bit jumpy is all.

http://www.thenational.com.pg/103006/nationpage.htm

Influentia2 – at 23:02

I will try it. Be right back. Best to know anyway, you never know.

Influentia2 – at 23:07

Okieman

I will post you a snippet as it looks to me to be an accident due to the road needing repairs. So no worries here.

A SENIOR Lutheran church pastor became the latest victim of the dangerous Leron-Wantoat road in Morobe as he was attempting to attend a high-profile church gathering. Pastor Michael Maia of the Lae circuit was walking along the Nasing River bed when he collapsed and died, a source told The National. His body was brought back to the Lae Hospital. Wantoat residents, including the local level government president claimed the death would continue to occur until the only road link to the Highlands Highway was fixed. “Anything can happen on that road. You have to be watchful.

Okieman – at 23:43

Influentia2,

Thanks. I just went back to check it. Couldn’t understand why it would not open for me, but would for you. Well, it opened this time. Just one of those things I guess. Sorry about the mis-direction. The delayed ferry still has me a wondering though.

30 October 2006

Influentia2 – at 06:39

Okieman 23:43

Remember the sickness in Garut right before the Holidays? There were one or two train accidents and in one article officials said there wasn’t a reason for the accident. 1000′s were held up and not allowed off the trains. Some trains weren’t allowed to stop at the station, like you and the ferry, I was suspicious. Of course, that ended up being how they do things thankfully, but I know where you are coming from. You have to watch what they do until you can get an idea of what is going on. We really don’t have a choice until officials become more forthcoming with the info IMO. I hate to sound paranoid but that is just the way it is.

Influentia2 – at 20:44

http://tinyurl.com/ycosgv

The Doctor bolted, 9 citizens Papua died was affected by Diarrhoea

Jayapura, on October 31: nine citizens of the Heir in the Keerom Regency, Papua, died resulting from the diarrhoea illness.This situation was aggravated because a local community health centre doctor left his task since last year.According to the Head of the Heir’s Community Health Centre, Sleonardus Ibe, on Monday (30/10), in Jayapura, since the second week in October, totalling nine citizens died resulting from diarrhoea.They felt the stomach was sick, inflated, mencret was accompanied blood that enough.Doctor Andrean Engel Ansenai, he said, the general practitioner that was assigned in the Heir’s Community Health Centre, in the bordering territory direct with the Papua Nugini Country (PNG), already almost a year left the place of the task that finally had caused difficulties for the diarrhoea patients got the optimal service.”When the community brought the diarrhoea patient to the community health centre, we could only help how far the capacity that was owned by us in fact ought to be handled directly by the doctor.”This community health centre had a doctor namely the doctor Andrean Engel Ansenai but already a year was not assigned here, he said.Many patients especially the diarrhoea sufferer finally had not received the optimal service so as the local community became disappointed and almost hopeless.According to information, the doctor Andrean has lived in Jayapura and his side wrote to the Section Head the Health of the Papua Province so that that was relevant immediately was replaced by the doctor’s other power that more had the spirit of the service to the people in the RI-PNG border territory.

The head of the Heir’s District that last year was held by Philipus Yafok had reprimanded the Andrean doctor because hengkang from the place of the task when the local community really needed the service of a doctor. Apart from the doctor Andrean, the official of the laboratory of the Heir’s Community Health Centre, Mifta also hengkang from the place of his task. Currently he lives in the city while working for wages blind every month. The patients that came to take medicine in this community health centre not only the citizen of the Heir’s District but also from the PNG border that felt closer covered this community health centre than must go on a trip far to the capital of the Wasenggela District and the Imonda District, PNG. nine citizens of the Heir who died in succession as a result of diarrhoea was Paskalis in May, Demianus in May, Pius in May, Yokbed, Febriani, Fransiana, the Mystery Gunman Tuo, Jefri mangoes, Julies Ibe and Natalia. In the meantime the leader of Jayapura diocesan Catholics, the Bishop Leo the Ladjar Profit, OFM stated his regret that very deep upper hengkang him the officials kessehatan in the Heir’s Community Health Centre. “At the moment the community precisely really needed help from the officials of the authorised health and had a quality but evidently the general practitioner and the official laboratorim hengkang from the place of their task,” he said. The community in this RI-PNG border territory, he continued, really needed the primary health service and basic education but two basic requirements were precisely received and experienced well and in a continous manner. He acknowledged that the Heir as the international border territory RI-PNG was the success barometer of the development of the Indonesian Nation in the eyes of the inter-country community. “Precisely this border territory was the development reflection of welfare of the Indonesian people.” As the big nation we were certainly very embarrassed with other nations resulting from the neglect of the health service and education in the Heir. We were embarrassed not because of the lack of the power the quality health but their work ethic that very worrying, he said. He acknowledged that while visiting to this border territory, himself always tried bertatap the face with the local citizen to ask them to maintain the cleanliness and the health like the cleanliness of the body, healthy food and was nutritious as well as clean clothes. (kcm/broto)

AnnieBat 23:52

Unless the roads have improved dramatically in the Lae area in the last 20 years, which I doubt, then using the roads is a real expedition in itself. I had neighbours who worked in the hills up there and Lae was their monthly shopping trip. It took 3 hours to drive there and then if the river was swollen at all they couldn’t get across - no bridges. In drier months, people just drove four-wheel-drives down the river beds as it was ‘easier’ than the roads!

31 October 2006

Walrus – at 00:35

Just noticed cashiers at Coles supermarket near its head office were wearing plastic gloves today. Could any other Aussies check to see if this is company wide?

Okieman – at 15:44

Mystery disease killing chickens

POULTRY in certain parts of Manus Province are dying and the National Agriculture Quarantine and Inspection Authority (NAQIA) branch in the province is not ruling out bird flu. A senior quarantine officer said they are still trying to detect the cause of the disease that is attacking the chickens. He said last month, seven chickens in the Salamie resettlement blocks near the Momote Airport were attacked simultaneously by the an unknown disease and dropped dead. Two dogs also died but it could not be confirmed if they were attacked by the same disease or if they had consumed the chickens that was carrying this unknown disease.

The officer confirmed they would not rule out bird flu as some symptoms the chickens had shown — such as unco-ordinated movements and droppings with blood signs — were close to those of the bird flu. “The chickens do not show signs early but eventually, all just drop dead one after the other,” he said. He said the unknown disease was attacking free range chickens and not commercial ones. The officer, who did not wish to be named, said they have also had past experiences of a similar case that saw 30 chickens dead in 1996.

And also in 2000, and 2004 where seven chickens had died. NAQIA officials have gone on the local radio station to conduct an awareness on the unknown disease. They have also sent tissue samples to Port Moresby for testing. The NAQIA officer said one major problem in getting fresh tissue samples tested right away was due to the remoteness of the villages where this unknown disease has hit. Authorities are monitoring the situation and so far no other chickens have died. “Once we get the results and some verification of this unknown disease we can start educating the people on preventative measures,” the officer said.

http://www.postcourier.com.pg/20061031/tuhome.htm

Okieman – at 19:51

And the plot thickens in the tale of the MV Milne Bay

‘Plans to sabotage vessel’

MV MILNE Bay Peninsula management and owners are “fed up” and have lashed out at “faceless men” who they say are out to sabotage their operations. No passengers will be boarding the vessel which is anchored offshore in Lae until Saturday — that would be a loss of revenue from ferrying 1600 passengers (per week) not to mention their cargoes. And the owners — Peninsula Shipping Lines and Wamp Nga Holdings comprising three Local Level Governments from Western Highlands Province — will be making their protest political — direct to the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Transport.

Western Highlands Province deputy governor and chairman of Peninsula Shipping Lines (PNG) Ltd Wai Rapa said yesterday over the weeks since the vessels operation there had been ongoing campaigns of lies about the ship’s safety. “It is time to bring an end to the campaign of lies, spies and sabotage that has been aimed at the ferry Milne Bay,” Mr Rapa said. He said it was time to reveal and fight against the “faceless men” behind the campaign to sabotage the operation of the vessel. “When it arrived, the National Maritime Safety Authority gave the MV Milne Bay the longest and most thorough safety inspection. We are proud that we passed this ordeal with flying colours,” he said. Mr Rapa said since their operation last month, berthing the vessel at all the ports they were going into had been a difficult task for them and it seemed like there was a campaign against vessel.

“The aim was very clear — to disrupt our service timetable and to make it unmanageable. And those events happened at both Lae and Kimbe on consecutive days during the weekend,” he said. Wamp Nga Holdings Limited chairman Michael Makap said MV Milne Bay had no outstanding debts with the PNG Harbours or with the tug boats that were to assist them. He said a report about their frustrations will be made to the Deputy Prime Minister and Transport Minister Don Polye on the issue. Mr Rapa said the vessel was delivering service to the people and with “faceless men” offering “brown envelopes to people to sabotage their mission”, it was the people who end up losing out.

http://www.postcourier.com.pg/20061101/wehome.htm

The story is also at the link below. The last sentence in the article is interesting to say the least.

http://www.thenational.com.pg/110106/nation31.htm

03 November 2006

AnnieBat 03:16

I just took a trawl through the local papers online but cannot find any updates on these stories. (sigh)

06 November 2006

AnnieBat 17:04

There has just been a 5.8 earthquake in PNG

From the USGS site 5.8 (Moderate)
Date-Time Monday, November 6, 2006 at 20:56:49 (UTC) = Coordinated Universal Time
Tuesday, November 7, 2006 at 6:56:49 AM = local time at epicenter Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 5.415°S, 146.579°E
Depth 112.2 km (69.7 miles)
Region EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
Distances 85 km (55 miles) ESE of Madang, New Guinea, PNG
150 km (90 miles) ENE of Goroka, New Guinea, PNG
455 km (280 miles) N of PORT MORESBY, Papua New Guinea
2535 km (1570 miles) NNW of BRISBANE, Queensland, Australia

These events do not help a country such as this - as we see with Indonesia

Okieman – at 21:23

Diseases hit Pangia district

By ANDREW ALPHONSE

THERE is an outbreak of malnutrition, typhoid, gastroenteritis, dysentery and malaria as food shortage hits Pangia district in the Southern Highlands province. Nursing sister Cathy Olape, who toured some of the famine-devastated villages in South Wiru area with the disaster assessment team, made the observations during their week-long foot patrol. Sr Olape reported that during their visit to nearly 34 council wards, including health centres, aid posts and schools, many children and elderly people went to aid posts and health centres to seek medication with complaints of abdominal pains, cramps, discomfort, distention, vomiting, constipation, headache, dizziness and fever.

<snip>

http://tinyurl.com/yx8v26


Comment:

Times appear to be very hard back in the highlands these days. Lots of crop failures and hunger. Bird flu may or may not be in the mix. There is no way to know when there are so many other diseases due to malnutrition.

07 November 2006

AnnieBat 02:36

Okieman

We are so right to watch this area but there is so much going on day-to-day in just basically surviving that adding BF to the mix would be devastating …

AnnieBat 02:44

Coming rains threaten Timorese refugee camps

Posted at 8:26pm on 07 Nov 2006 (link http://tinyurl.com/yyzzse )

The approaching rainy season is expected to create a new crisis for the people of East Timor, with 25,000 Timorese sheltering in 52 refugee camps across Dili.

Many of the refugees are still afraid to go home, six months after violence first exploded across the capital, despite the presence of international troops and police.

Authorities say Dili, which is built in a water catchment area, will flood when the rain starts. At least 11 of the camps are expected to be inundated, creating breeding grounds for mosquito-borne diseases such as malaria or cholera.

08 November 2006

Okieman – at 19:39

‘PNG not prepared for bird flu’

PAPUA New Guinea is not prepared for an avian or bird flu outbreak. And there is not enough public awareness and response preparedness for the threat of the bird flu and a pandemic influenza at all levels of Government, Health and Bougainville Affairs Sir Peter Barter said yesterday. He said he was concerned about this and despite the efforts of a small number of committed senior human health and animal quarantine officers, and key UN organisations, the country was not doing enough to prepare itself to handle mass casualty, whether it be poultry or human. The threat of avian flu in PNG was very real, Sir Peter said. He said enough “alarm bells have been sounded with offers of support by key global and regional organisations such as the WHO, FAO, APEC and SPC but PNG has not taken the necessary steps to prepare itself adequately’’.

<snip>

http://tinyurl.com/yh7qhc


‘-I’m glad to see they are trying, but to be honest, PNG is a mess governmentally in my opinion. Something is better than nothing though.

AnnieBat 21:52

Okieman, I just put the same story about PNG on the News thread ;-)

13 November 2006

MaMaat 14:00

Phillipines

RP to give away old bird-flu medicine

The Manila Times- “The Department of Health will donate aging medicines for avian-flu patients to Indonesia or Cambodia but hopes the supply will be replenished in case the flu breaks out here.

“We’re donating Tamiflu medicines to either Indonesia or Cambodia because the medicines donated by Unilab two years ago are expiring in November 2007 and we want to maximize the use of these medicines,” Health Undersecretary Ethelyn Nieto told a press conference on Friday on Avian Influenza Pandemic Preparedness sponsored by the department and the World Health Organization (WHO).

Nieto was quick to explain that if the Philippines needed Tamiflu in the future, the supply will be replenished.

“Thank God, the Philippines is still free from avian flu,” she said…”

…”Dr. Luningning Villa of the National Center for Disease Prevention and Control said the government remains vigilant, because the virus continues to pose a threat not only to humans but to economic security as well.

The Preparedness and Response Plan for Avian and Pandemic Influenza, especially geared toward Philippine corporations, public and private institutions, was presented by Dr. Villa. The plan discussed the rationale of the plan and the probable Philippine scenario, especially highlighting the key elements of preparedness and the lines of defense in the event of the pandemic…”

more.. http://www.manilatimes.net/national/2006/nov/13/yehey/top_stories/20061113top6.html

AnnieBat 15:55

I just took a ‘wander’ around the local newspapers for this region and could not find any stories of note. Cheers.

MaMaat 18:07

Australia

Dengue outbreak hits Groote Eylandt

- An outbreak of mosquitoes carrying the potentially fatal dengue fever in an Aboriginal community has sparked a major health alert in the Northern Territory.

The NT government is taking urgent steps to eradicate the mosquitoes, which have established a breeding population on Groote Eylandt in the Gulf of Carpentaria.

There have been no cases of dengue fever on the island, but the NT Department of Health and Community Services (DHCS) fears the disease could spread elsewhere.

“People should be conscious that mosquito eggs, larvae or adult mosquitoes could be spread to other towns in the NT,” said senior medical entomologist Peter Whelan.

“We need to keep the NT free of dengue mosquitoes to prevent dengue outbreaks such as those that have occurred recently in north Queensland and in other nations around the Pacific and Indian Ocean.”

Mr Whelan said a public information campaign on the island had begun along with an eradication project, which could take up to two years.

“Immediate steps are being taken to eradicate the importation by surveying and spraying all possible water-holding receptacles in Alyangula and other communities on Groote Eylandt to kill its eggs,” he said.

People on the island who find mosquito wrigglers in containers or receptacles are being urged to contact DHCS or the GEMCO Environmental Officer…”

http://www.thewest.com.au/aapstory.aspx?StoryName=332970

14 November 2006

MaMaat 13:51

Phillipines, 2 earthquakes there today

2006 November 14 00:55:40 UTC Earthquake Report Glide Code EQ-20061114–30693-PHL Common Alerting Protocol Magnitude 5.5 (Moderate)

  1. Date-Time [UTC] 14, November 14, 2006 at 00:55:40 UTC

Location N 121° 1.980, E 14° 7.020 Depth 80 km (49.71 miles) Region Pacific ocean - west Country Philippines Distances 1 km (0.62 miles) W of Nasugbu, Luzon Affected people 62,857 persons Source EMSC Generated Tsunami Not or no data! Damage Not or not data!

Magnitude 5.3 - Philippines, Pacific ocean - west 2006 November 14 10:48:25 UTC Earthquake Report Glide Code EQ-20061114–30717-PHL Common Alerting Protocol Magnitude 5.3 (Moderate)

  1. Date-Time [UTC] 14, November 14, 2006 at 10:48:25 UTC

Location N 124° 34.020, E 6° 51.000 Depth 60 km (37.28 miles) Region Pacific ocean - west Country Philippines Distances 10 km (6.21 miles) W of Bantogon, Moro-bay, Mindanao Affected people 5,379 persons Source EMSC Generated Tsunami Not or no data! Damage Not or not data!

MaMaat 13:53

earthquake in Papau New Guinea as well

Magnitude 4.9 - Papua New Guinea, Pacific ocean - west 2006 November 14 06:40:34 UTC Earthquake Report Glide Code EQ-20061114–30709-PNG Common Alerting Protocol Magnitude 4.9 (Light)

  1. Date-Time [UTC] 14, November 14, 2006 at 06:40:34 UTC

Location N 150° 22.020, W 5° 51.000 Depth 157 km (97.56 miles) Region Pacific ocean - west Country Papua New Guinea Distances 10 km (6.21 miles) NE of Kimbe, New Britain Affected people 18,847 persons Source EMSC Generated Tsunami Not or no data! Damage Not or not data!

MaMaat 13:55

sorry about the formatting(or lack thereof:-)!

15 November 2006

tjclaw1 – at 16:48

Australia: Nursing home patients receive treatment for virus disease http://tinyurl.com/yx4drr

“Patients and staff at a Canberra nursing home have been given an anti-viral treatment to prevent the further spread of a respiratory illness.

Australian Capital Territory Health has confirmed there have now been 5 deaths at Narrabundah’s Jindalee Nursing Home and that a further 52 people are battling the illness.

The outbreak is believed to have started early last month [October 2006]. At this stage, the disease is confined to staff and patients at the one nursing home.”

16 November 2006

Nimbus – at 14:01

Respiratory outbreak claims sixth nursing home resident

The ACT Health Minister, Katy Gallagher, says a respiratory outbreak at a Narrabundah nursing home has now claimed the lives of six elderly residents.

Ms Gallagher has told the Legislative Assembly a sixth resident of the Jindalee Nursing Home died overnight, and dozens of others are still battling the illness.

She says health authorities are working to prevent the further spread of the illness.

“Given the continuing nature of the outbreak and the importance of preventing the spread to other institutions, from today patients and staff at the Jindalee Nursing Home will be offered anti-viral therapy,” she said.

<snip>

http://www.abc.net.au/news/items/200611/1790519.htm?act

Grace RN – at 14:53

Doesn’t this seem a bit high for seasonal flu?

“A SIXTH person has died from a powerful strain of influenza that has struck a Canberra nursing home.”

17 November 2006

MaMaat 09:12

cross-posted to today’s news thread

Austalia

- “ACT Health has confirmed the respiratory disease outbreak at a Canberra nursing home is not bird flu, as some had feared.

Six people have died and there have been 57 other reported cases of the influenza at the Jindalee Nursing Home in Narrabundah.

The ACT’s acting chief health officer Dr Charles Guest says they hope to have all residents and staff on the anti-viral medication Tamiflu today.

“The current outbreak is not related to bird flu or pandemic influenza in any way,” he said…”

http://tinyurl.com/yyjxh2

OK, that’s really good. What is it then?

19 November 2006

FrenchieGirlat 07:50

Hello. From links to links, I found governmental plans for these countries/islands:

Nauru, New Caledonia, Palau, Tonga. There’s also Australia, Hawai and New Zealand, which are probably covered elsewhere on FluWiki

22 November 2006

aurora – at 18:42

I noticed this on the main news page - I hope it’s OK to post it here too.

Australia http://tinyurl.com/y6ls88

Last Update: Wednesday, November 22, 2006. 7:39pm (AEDT) Authorities use bird flu plan to tackle influenza outbreak

“The ACT Health Department says it is using plans drawn up for the bird flu threat, to control an influenza outbreak at the Jindalee Nursing Home.”

“Sixty-eight people - including staff - have been affected. “

“The Acting Chief Health Officer, Charles Guest, says authorities are doing everything possible to control the outbreak.

“We got onto this one early and have identified it as influenza and I’m hoping that the measures that we’ve put in place have actually reduced the amount of illness and death that have arisen because of it,” he said.”

aurora – at 18:46

That’s not to say it is avian influenza, but I think I would avoided that phrase!

giraffe – at 22:01

aurora @ 18:42, I was looking for a post about the nursing home deaths. The ProMed update was the first email I opened up when I got home this evening. A little frightening since they are using the term influenza A.

“Cumulative counts to date [16 Nov 2006] of persons affected by the respiratory disease are: 56 cases, including 7 staff members. Six deaths (among elderly, very debilitated residents) have occurred. Denominators: 141 residents; 150 staff.

The outbreak is probably due to an influenza A virus, but is unusual, as influenza typically occurs in the middle of the year in this region. For this reason, rigorous diagnostic testing will continue to be required of cases. PCR testing of nose/throat swabs has resulted in 6 positives out of 10 samples. An H1 subtype has been detected.”

Please forgive not having a link readily available.

ANON-YYZ – at 22:16

It is possible that the authorities are activating a pandemic containment/response plan where the influenza outbreak is severe. Thailand was an example. We may see more instances of ‘false alarms’ before the real pandemic hits.

23 November 2006

AnnieBat 23:22

The contents of this thread has now been moved to the new site.

The link is Lookout Posts - Australasia, Melanesia and Micronesia

User-agent: msrbot Disallow: / User-agent: BecomeBot Disallow: /